U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains WRF model output. There are three months of data: July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. For each month, several simulations were made: A...
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ and CMAQ-VBS model output. This dataset is not publicly accessible because: Files too large. It can be accessed through the following means: via EPA's NCC tape...
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHANG Long-qiang; TIAN Nai-yuan; ZHANG Jin; XU An-jun
2008-01-01
Based on the requirement of compactivity, continuity, and high efficiency, and taking full advantage of cushion capability of flexible parts such as external refining in new generation steel plant, an output model of steel plant was established in terms of matching between BOF and caster. Using this model, the BOF nominal capacity is selected, the caster output and equipment amount are computed, and then the steel plant output is computed.
Model output: fact or artefact?
Melsen, Lieke
2015-04-01
As a third-year PhD-student, I relatively recently entered the wonderful world of scientific Hydrology. A science that has many pillars that directly impact society, for example with the prediction of hydrological extremes (both floods and drought), climate change, applications in agriculture, nature conservation, drinking water supply, etcetera. Despite its demonstrable societal relevance, hydrology is often seen as a science between two stools. Like Klemeš (1986) stated: "By their academic background, hydrologists are foresters, geographers, electrical engineers, geologists, system analysts, physicists, mathematicians, botanists, and most often civil engineers." Sometimes it seems that the engineering genes are still present in current hydrological sciences, and this results in pragmatic rather than scientific approaches for some of the current problems and challenges we have in hydrology. Here, I refer to the uncertainty in hydrological modelling that is often neglected. For over thirty years, uncertainty in hydrological models has been extensively discussed and studied. But it is not difficult to find peer-reviewed articles in which it is implicitly assumed that model simulations represent the truth rather than a conceptualization of reality. For instance in trend studies, where data is extrapolated 100 years ahead. Of course one can use different forcing datasets to estimate the uncertainty of the input data, but how to prevent that the output is not a model artefact, caused by the model structure? Or how about impact studies, e.g. of a dam impacting river flow. Measurements are often available for the period after dam construction, so models are used to simulate river flow before dam construction. Both are compared in order to qualify the effect of the dam. But on what basis can we tell that the model tells us the truth? Model validation is common nowadays, but validation only (comparing observations with model output) is not sufficient to assume that a
Input-output linearizing tracking control of induction machine with the included magnetic saturation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dolinar, Drago; Ljusev, Petar; Stumberger, Gorazd
2003-01-01
The tracking control design of an induction motor, based on input-output linearisation with magnetic saturation included is addressed. The magnetic saturation is represented by a nonlinear magnetising curve for the iron core and is used in the control, the observer of the state variables......, and in the load torque estimator. An input-output linearising control is used to achieve better tracking performances. It is based on the mixed 'stator current - rotor flux linkage' induction motor model with magnetic saturation considered in the stationary reference frame. Experimental results show...... that the proposed input-output linearising tracking control with saturation included behaves considerably better than the one without saturation, and that it introduces smaller position and speed errors, and better motor stiffness on account of the increased computational complexity....
Input-output linearizing tracking control of induction machine with the included magnetic saturation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dolinar, Drago; Ljusev, Petar; Stumberger, Gorazd
2003-01-01
The tracking control design of an induction motor, based on input-output linearisation with magnetic saturation included is addressed. The magnetic saturation is represented by a nonlinear magnetising curve for the iron core and is used in the control, the observer of the state variables......, and in the load torque estimator. An input-output linearising control is used to achieve better tracking performances. It is based on the mixed 'stator current - rotor flux linkage' induction motor model with magnetic saturation considered in the stationary reference frame. Experimental results show...... that the proposed input-output linearising tracking control with saturation included behaves considerably better than the one without saturation, and that it introduces smaller position and speed errors, and better motor stiffness on account of the increased computational complexity....
Research Output, Socialization, and the Biglan Model.
Creswell, John W.; Bean, John P.
1981-01-01
A test of the Biglan model of faculty subcultures using measures of research output and tests of the model controlling for the effects of faculty socialization are described. The Biglan model is found to be valid, and the distinctiveness of the Biglan groups appears to increase with the socialization of faculty into subject areas. (Author/MLW)
Research Output, Socialization, and the Biglan Model.
Creswell, John W.; Bean, John P.
1981-01-01
A test of the Biglan model of faculty subcultures using measures of research output and tests of the model controlling for the effects of faculty socialization are described. The Biglan model is found to be valid, and the distinctiveness of the Biglan groups appears to increase with the socialization of faculty into subject areas. (Author/MLW)
Problems in Modelling Charge Output Accelerometers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tomczyk Krzysztof
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The paper presents major issues associated with the problem of modelling change output accelerometers. The presented solutions are based on the weighted least squares (WLS method using transformation of the complex frequency response of the sensors. The main assumptions of the WLS method and a mathematical model of charge output accelerometers are presented in first two sections of this paper. In the next sections applying the WLS method to estimation of the accelerometer model parameters is discussed and the associated uncertainties are determined. Finally, the results of modelling a PCB357B73 charge output accelerometer are analysed in the last section of this paper. All calculations were executed using the MathCad software program. The main stages of these calculations are presented in Appendices A−E.
Analysis of variance for model output
Jansen, M.J.W.
1999-01-01
A scalar model output Y is assumed to depend deterministically on a set of stochastically independent input vectors of different dimensions. The composition of the variance of Y is considered; variance components of particular relevance for uncertainty analysis are identified. Several analysis of va
Modelling Waste Output from Trout Farms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frier, J. O.; From, J.; Larsen, Torben
1995-01-01
The aim of waste modelling in aquaculture is to provide tools for simulating input, transformation, output and subsidiary degradation in recipients of organic compounds, nitrogen, and phosphorus. The direct purpose of this modelling is to make it possible for caretakers and water authorities...... to calculate waste discharge from existing and planned aquaculture activities. A special purpose is simulating outcome of waste water treatment and altered feeding programmes. Different submodels must be applied for P, N, and organics, as well as for the different phases of food and waste treatment. Altogether...
Alternative to Ritt's pseudodivision for finding the input-output equations of multi-output models.
Meshkat, Nicolette; Anderson, Chris; DiStefano, Joseph J
2012-09-01
Differential algebra approaches to structural identifiability analysis of a dynamic system model in many instances heavily depend upon Ritt's pseudodivision at an early step in analysis. The pseudodivision algorithm is used to find the characteristic set, of which a subset, the input-output equations, is used for identifiability analysis. A simpler algorithm is proposed for this step, using Gröbner Bases, along with a proof of the method that includes a reduced upper bound on derivative requirements. Efficacy of the new algorithm is illustrated with several biosystem model examples.
REFLECTIONS ON THE INOPERABILITY INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL
Dietzenbacher, Erik; Miller, Ronald E.
2015-01-01
We argue that the inoperability input-output model is a straightforward - albeit potentially very relevant - application of the standard input-output model. In addition, we propose two less standard input-output approaches as alternatives to take into consideration when analyzing the effects of disa
Including Magnetostriction in Micromagnetic Models
Conbhuí, Pádraig Ó.; Williams, Wyn; Fabian, Karl; Nagy, Lesleis
2016-04-01
The magnetic anomalies that identify crustal spreading are predominantly recorded by basalts formed at the mid-ocean ridges, whose magnetic signals are dominated by iron-titanium-oxides (Fe3-xTixO4), so called "titanomagnetites", of which the Fe2.4Ti0.6O4 (TM60) phase is the most common. With sufficient quantities of titanium present, these minerals exhibit strong magnetostriction. To date, models of these grains in the pseudo-single domain (PSD) range have failed to accurately account for this effect. In particular, a popular analytic treatment provided by Kittel (1949) for describing the magnetostrictive energy as an effective increase of the anisotropy constant can produce unphysical strains for non-uniform magnetizations. I will present a rigorous approach based on work by Brown (1966) and by Kroner (1958) for including magnetostriction in micromagnetic codes which is suitable for modelling hysteresis loops and finding remanent states in the PSD regime. Preliminary results suggest the more rigorously defined micromagnetic models exhibit higher coercivities and extended single domain ranges when compared to more simplistic approaches.
A Distance Function Model with Good and Bad Outputs
2014-01-01
We present an approach that pursues an adequate representation of product transformation possibilities for a technology generating, in addition to marketed (good) products, some environmentally detrimental non-marketed byproducts (bad outputs). As the shadow price of a non-marketed output depends on its marginal transformation rates with marketed outputs, representation of technological relationships between different groups of outputs deserves a particular attention. We model the technology ...
A comparative analysis of multi-output frontier models
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Tao ZHANG; Eoghan GARVEY
2008-01-01
Recently, there have been more debates on the methods of measuring efficiency. The main objective of this paper is to make a sensitivity analysis for different frontier models and compare the results obtained from the different methods of estimating multi-output frontier for a specific application. The methods include stochastic distance function frontier, stochastic ray frontier,and data envelopment analysis. The stochastic frontier regressions with and without the inefficiency effects model are also com-pared and tested. The results indicate that there are significant correlations between the results obtained from the alternative estimation methods.
Integrated management of facility, process, and output: data model perspective
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LEE Seunghoon; HAN Soonhung; MUN Duhwan
2012-01-01
As the manufacturing industry matures,vast amounts of data related to products are created by many kinds of engineering systems during the manufacturing phase.These include data for a variety of facilities,manufacturing processes,and the input and output of each process (input material,by-products,and intermediate and final products). Effective operation and maintenance of manufacturing facilities and eco-friendly products are gradually becoming important issues due to increased environmental regulations and changes in the enterprise business model.For this reason,increased efficiency in data management is necessary in the manufacturing industry. In this paper,existing data models for the integration of lifecycle data are analyzed according to their application domains.After the analysis,information requirements for the integrated management of facility,process,and output data are developed.According to these requirements,a data model appropriate for this integration is proposed.As an application case study,the use of the proposed data model for the effective operation and maintenance of manufacturing facilities is presented.Finally,benefit,limitation,and improvement of the proposed data model are discussed.
Determining state-space models from sequential output data
Lin, Jiguan Gene
1988-01-01
This talk focuses on the determination of state-space models for large space systems using only the output data. The output data could be generated by the unknown or deliberate initial conditions of the space structure in question. We shall review some relevant fundamental work on the state-space modeling of sequential output data that is potentially applicable to large space structures. If formulated in terms of some generalized Markov parameters, this approach is in some sense similar to, but much simpler than, the Juang-Pappa Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) and the Ho-Kalman construction procedure.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Codas, Andrés; Hanssen, Kristian G.; Foss, Bjarne
2017-01-01
The production life of oil reservoirs starts under significant uncertainty regarding the actual economical return of the recovery process due to the lack of oil field data. Consequently, investors and operators make management decisions based on a limited and uncertain description of the reservoir....... In this work, we propose a new formulation for robust optimization of reservoir well controls. It is inspired by the multiple shooting (MS) method which permits a broad range of parallelization opportunities and output constraint handling. This formulation exploits coherent risk measures, a concept...
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Baocang Ding; Hongguang Pan
2016-01-01
The output feedback model predictive control (MPC), for a linear parameter varying (LPV) process system including unmeasurable model parameters and disturbance (all lying in known polytopes), is considered. Some previously developed tools, including the norm-bounding technique for relaxing the disturbance-related constraint handling, the dynamic output feedback law, the notion of quadratic boundedness for specifying the closed-loop stability, and the el ipsoidal state estimation error bound for guaranteeing the recursive feasibility, are merged in the control design. Some previous approaches are shown to be the special cases. An example of continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.
Space market model space industry input-output model
Hodgin, Robert F.; Marchesini, Roberto
1987-01-01
The goal of the Space Market Model (SMM) is to develop an information resource for the space industry. The SMM is intended to contain information appropriate for decision making in the space industry. The objectives of the SMM are to: (1) assemble information related to the development of the space business; (2) construct an adequate description of the emerging space market; (3) disseminate the information on the space market to forecasts and planners in government agencies and private corporations; and (4) provide timely analyses and forecasts of critical elements of the space market. An Input-Output model of market activity is proposed which are capable of transforming raw data into useful information for decision makers and policy makers dealing with the space sector.
Input--output capital coefficients for energy technologies. [Input-output model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tessmer, R.G. Jr.
1976-12-01
Input-output capital coefficients are presented for five electric and seven non-electric energy technologies. They describe the durable goods and structures purchases (at a 110 sector level of detail) that are necessary to expand productive capacity in each of twelve energy source sectors. Coefficients are defined in terms of 1967 dollar purchases per 10/sup 6/ Btu of output from new capacity, and original data sources include Battelle Memorial Institute, the Harvard Economic Research Project, The Mitre Corp., and Bechtel Corp. The twelve energy sectors are coal, crude oil and gas, shale oil, methane from coal, solvent refined coal, refined oil products, pipeline gas, coal combined-cycle electric, fossil electric, LWR electric, HTGR electric, and hydroelectric.
Predoction Model of Data Envelopment Analysis with Undesirable Outputs
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
边馥萍; 范宇
2004-01-01
Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has become a standard non-parametric approach to productivity analysis, especially to relative efficiency analysis of decision making units (DMUs). Extended to the prediction field, it can solve the prediction problem with multiple inputs and outputs which can not be solved easily by the regression analysis method.But the traditional DEA models can not solve the problem with undesirable outputs,so in this paper the inherent relationship between goal programming and the DEA method based on the relationship between multiple goal programming and goal programming is explored,and a mixed DEA model which can make all factors of inputs and undesirable outputs decrease in different proportions is built.And at the same time,all the factors of desirable outputs increase in different proportions.
Simultaneous exact model matching with stability by output feedback
Kiritsis, Konstadinos H.
2017-03-01
In this paper, is studied the problem of simultaneous exact model matching by dynamic output feedback for square and invertible linear time invariant systems. In particular, explicit necessary and sufficient conditions are established which guarantee the solvability of the problem with stability and a procedure is given for the computation of dynamic controller which solves the problem.
System convergence in transport models: algorithms efficiency and output uncertainty
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rich, Jeppe; Nielsen, Otto Anker
2015-01-01
much in the literature. The paper first investigates several variants of the Method of Successive Averages (MSA) by simulation experiments on a toy-network. It is found that the simulation experiments produce support for a weighted MSA approach. The weighted MSA approach is then analysed on large......-scale in the Danish National Transport Model (DNTM). It is revealed that system convergence requires that either demand or supply is without random noise but not both. In that case, if MSA is applied to the model output with random noise, it will converge effectively as the random effects are gradually dampened...... in the MSA process. In connection to DNTM it is shown that MSA works well when applied to travel-time averaging, whereas trip averaging is generally infected by random noise resulting from the assignment model. The latter implies that the minimum uncertainty in the final model output is dictated...
A model to predict the power output from wind farms
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)
1997-12-31
This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.
H∞ output tracking control of discrete-time nonlinear systems via standard neural network models.
Liu, Meiqin; Zhang, Senlin; Chen, Haiyang; Sheng, Weihua
2014-10-01
This brief proposes an output tracking control for a class of discrete-time nonlinear systems with disturbances. A standard neural network model is used to represent discrete-time nonlinear systems whose nonlinearity satisfies the sector conditions. H∞ control performance for the closed-loop system including the standard neural network model, the reference model, and state feedback controller is analyzed using Lyapunov-Krasovskii stability theorem and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. The H∞ controller, of which the parameters are obtained by solving LMIs, guarantees that the output of the closed-loop system closely tracks the output of a given reference model well, and reduces the influence of disturbances on the tracking error. Three numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed H∞ output tracking design approach.
Modeling the power output of piezoelectric energy harvesters
Al Ahmad, Mahmoud
2011-04-30
Design of experiments and multiphysics analyses were used to develop a parametric model for a d 33-based cantilever. The analysis revealed that the most significant parameters influencing the resonant frequency are the supporting layer thickness, piezoelectric layer thickness, and cantilever length. On the other hand, the most important factors affecting the charge output arethe piezoelectric thickness and the interdigitated electrode dimensions. The accuracy of the developed model was confirmed and showed less than 1% estimation error compared with a commercial simulation package. To estimate the power delivered to a load, the electric current output from the piezoelectric generator was calculated. A circuit model was built and used to estimate the power delivered to a load, which compared favorably to experimentally published power data on actual cantilevers of similar dimensions. © 2011 TMS.
An Advanced simulation Code for Modeling Inductive Output Tubes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Thuc Bui; R. Lawrence Ives
2012-04-27
During the Phase I program, CCR completed several major building blocks for a 3D large signal, inductive output tube (IOT) code using modern computer language and programming techniques. These included a 3D, Helmholtz, time-harmonic, field solver with a fully functional graphical user interface (GUI), automeshing and adaptivity. Other building blocks included the improved electrostatic Poisson solver with temporal boundary conditions to provide temporal fields for the time-stepping particle pusher as well as the self electric field caused by time-varying space charge. The magnetostatic field solver was also updated to solve for the self magnetic field caused by time changing current density in the output cavity gap. The goal function to optimize an IOT cavity was also formulated, and the optimization methodologies were investigated.
DEVELOPMENT OF WATER CIRCULATION MODEL INCLUDING IRRIGATION
Kotsuki, Shunji; Tanaka, Kenji; Kojiri, Toshiharu; Hamaguchi, Toshio
It is well known that since agricultural water withdrawal has much affect on water circulation system, accurate analysis of river discharge or water balance are difficult with less regard for it. In this study, water circulation model composed of land surface model and distributed runoff model is proposed at 10km 10km resolution. In this model, irrigation water, which is estimated with land surface model, is introduced to river discharge analysis. The model is applied to the Chao Phraya River in Thailand, and reproduced seasonal water balance. Additionally, the discharge on dry season simulated with the model is improved as a result of including irrigation. Since the model, which is basically developed from global data sets, simulated seasonal change of river discharge, it can be suggested that our model has university to other river basins.
Modelling Analysis of Forestry Input-Output Elasticity in China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guofeng Wang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Based on an extended economic model and space econometrics, this essay analyzed the spatial distributions and interdependent relationships of the production of forestry in China; also the input-output elasticity of forestry production were calculated. Results figure out there exists significant spatial correlation in forestry production in China. Spatial distribution is mainly manifested as spatial agglomeration. The output elasticity of labor force is equal to 0.6649, and that of capital is equal to 0.8412. The contribution of land is significantly negative. Labor and capital are the main determinants for the province-level forestry production in China. Thus, research on the province-level forestry production should not ignore the spatial effect. The policy-making process should take into consideration the effects between provinces on the production of forestry. This study provides some scientific technical support for forestry production.
Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)
1999-03-01
Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.
Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics
Scheuerer, Michael
2013-01-01
Statistical post-processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post-processing method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation accumulations based on ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). We model precipitation amounts by a generalized extreme value distribution that is left-censored at zero. This distribution permits modelling precipitation on the original scale without prior transformation of the data. A closed form expression for its continuous rank probability score can be derived and permits computationally efficient model fitting. We discuss an extension of our approach that incorporates further statistics characterizing the spatial variability of precipitation amounts in the vicinity of the location of interest. The proposed EMOS method is applied to daily 18-h forecasts of 6-h accumulated precipitation over Germany in 2011 using the COSMO-DE ensemble prediction system operated by the Germa...
Neural Network Hydrological Modelling: Linear Output Activation Functions?
Abrahart, R. J.; Dawson, C. W.
2005-12-01
The power to represent non-linear hydrological processes is of paramount importance in neural network hydrological modelling operations. The accepted wisdom requires non-polynomial activation functions to be incorporated in the hidden units such that a single tier of hidden units can thereafter be used to provide a 'universal approximation' to whatever particular hydrological mechanism or function is of interest to the modeller. The user can select from a set of default activation functions, or in certain software packages, is able to define their own function - the most popular options being logistic, sigmoid and hyperbolic tangent. If a unit does not transform its inputs it is said to possess a 'linear activation function' and a combination of linear activation functions will produce a linear solution; whereas the use of non-linear activation functions will produce non-linear solutions in which the principle of superposition does not hold. For hidden units, speed of learning and network complexities are important issues. For the output units, it is desirable to select an activation function that is suited to the distribution of the target values: e.g. binary targets (logistic); categorical targets (softmax); continuous-valued targets with a bounded range (logistic / tanh); positive target values with no known upper bound (exponential; but beware of overflow); continuous-valued targets with no known bounds (linear). It is also standard practice in most hydrological applications to use the default software settings and to insert a set of identical non-linear activation functions in the hidden layer and output layer processing units. Mixed combinations have nevertheless been reported in several hydrological modelling papers and the full ramifications of such activities requires further investigation and assessment i.e. non-linear activation functions in the hidden units connected to linear or clipped-linear activation functions in the output unit. There are two
Comparison of Laboratory Experimental Data to XBeach Numerical Model Output
Demirci, Ebru; Baykal, Cuneyt; Guler, Isikhan; Sogut, Erdinc
2016-04-01
Coastal zones are living and constantly changing environments where both the natural events and the human-interaction results come into picture regarding to the shoreline behavior. Both the nature of the coastal zone and the human activities shape together the resultants of the interaction with oceans and coasts. Natural extreme events may result in the need of human interference, such as building coastal structures in order to prevent from disasters or any man-made structure throughout a coastline may affect the hydrodynamics and morphology in the nearshore. In order to understand and cope with this cycle of cause and effect relationship, the numerical models developed. XBeach is an open-source, 2DH, depth average numerical model including the hydrodynamic processes of short wave transformation (refraction, shoaling and breaking), long wave (infragravity wave) transformation (generation, propagation and dissipation), wave-induced setup and unsteady currents, as well as overwash and inundation and morphodynamic processes of bed load and suspended sediment transport, dune face avalanching, bed update and breaching (Roelvink et al., 2010). Together with XBeach numerical model, it is possible to both verify and visualize the resultant external effects to the initial shorelines in coastal zones. Recently, Baykal et al. (2015) modelled the long term morphology changes with XBeach near Kızılırmak river mouth consisting of one I-shaped and one Y-shaped groins. In order to investigate the nature of the shoreline and near shore hydrodynamic conditions and morphology, the five laboratory experiments are conducted in the Largescale Sediment Transport Facility at the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center in order to be used to improve longshore sand transport relationships under the combined influence of waves and currents and the enhancement of predictive numerical models of beach morphology evolution. The first series of the experiments were aimed at
Models of bovine babesiosis including juvenile cattle.
Saad-Roy, C M; Shuai, Zhisheng; van den Driessche, P
2015-03-01
Bovine Babesiosis in cattle is caused by the transmission of protozoa of Babesia spp. by ticks as vectors. Juvenile cattle (Babesiosis, rarely show symptoms, and acquire immunity upon recovery. Susceptibility to the disease varies between breeds of cattle. Models of the dynamics of Bovine Babesiosis transmitted by the cattle tick that include these factors are formulated as systems of ordinary differential equations. Basic reproduction numbers are calculated, and it is proved that if these numbers are below the threshold value of one, then Bovine Babesiosis dies out. However, above the threshold number of one, the disease may approach an endemic state. In this case, control measures are suggested by determining target reproduction numbers. The percentage of a particular population (for example, the adult bovine population) needed to be controlled to eradicate the disease is evaluated numerically using Columbia data from the literature.
Validation of transpulmonary thermodilution cardiac output measurement in a pediatric animal model.
Lemson, J.; Boode, W.P. de; Hopman, J.C.W.; Singh, S.K.; Hoeven, J.G. van der
2008-01-01
OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to validate the transpulmonary thermodilution cardiac output measurement (CO(TPTD)) in a controlled newborn animal model under various hemodynamic conditions with special emphasis on low cardiac output. DESIGN: Prospective, experimental, pediatric animal study. S
Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.
2013-06-28
Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
BIAN Fuping; DAI Min
2005-01-01
This paper extends the stochastic frontier production theory to the case of multiple outputs and calculate the measurement of efficiency using the production theory. We further apply this method to construct the stochastic frontier production model with undesirable outputs. Finally, the model is used in an HIV immunology model and the efficient drug treatment strategies are then explored.All the models are estimated using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. Stochastic errors are considered in this model, which is an advantage over other deterministic efficiency models. Some of our conclusions agree with those published in related papers.
An Estimation of X-Radiation Output using Mathematic Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Suchart Kothan
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Problem statement: Diagnosis x-ray radiation safety is key in medical examination. The quantity of patient radiation doses is beneficial for radiation protection of the patient. It was proposed that the equation for estimating the output (milliReongent, mR from x-ray machines. Approach: A was 0.5, 0.8 and 1.0 for single phase, three phases and high frequency x-ray machines, respectively. To compare calculated output (mR used this equation and measured output (mR used ionizing chamber dosimeter. Results: The difference between the calculated and measured radiation dose was quite small. Conclusion: This equation could use to estimate output and it altered the reliable and inexpensive techniques for patient dose measurement in routine diagnostic x-ray examinations.
An Integrated Biochemistry Laboratory, Including Molecular Modeling
Hall, Adele J. Wolfson Mona L.; Branham, Thomas R.
1996-11-01
) experience with methods of protein purification; (iii) incorporation of appropriate controls into experiments; (iv) use of basic statistics in data analysis; (v) writing papers and grant proposals in accepted scientific style; (vi) peer review; (vii) oral presentation of results and proposals; and (viii) introduction to molecular modeling. Figure 1 illustrates the modular nature of the lab curriculum. Elements from each of the exercises can be separated and treated as stand-alone exercises, or combined into short or long projects. We have been able to offer the opportunity to use sophisticated molecular modeling in the final module through funding from an NSF-ILI grant. However, many of the benefits of the research proposal can be achieved with other computer programs, or even by literature survey alone. Figure 1.Design of project-based biochemistry laboratory. Modules (projects, or portions of projects) are indicated as boxes. Each of these can be treated independently, or used as part of a larger project. Solid lines indicate some suggested paths from one module to the next. The skills and knowledge required for protein purification and design are developed in three units: (i) an introduction to critical assays needed to monitor degree of purification, including an evaluation of assay parameters; (ii) partial purification by ion-exchange techniques; and (iii) preparation of a grant proposal on protein design by mutagenesis. Brief descriptions of each of these units follow, with experimental details of each project at the end of this paper. Assays for Lysozyme Activity and Protein Concentration (4 weeks) The assays mastered during the first unit are a necessary tool for determining the purity of the enzyme during the second unit on purification by ion exchange. These assays allow an introduction to the concept of specific activity (units of enzyme activity per milligram of total protein) as a measure of purity. In this first sequence, students learn a turbidimetric assay
Wind Farm Flow Modeling using an Input-Output Reduced-Order Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Annoni, Jennifer; Gebraad, Pieter; Seiler, Peter
2016-08-01
Wind turbines in a wind farm operate individually to maximize their own power regardless of the impact of aerodynamic interactions on neighboring turbines. There is the potential to increase power and reduce overall structural loads by properly coordinating turbines. To perform control design and analysis, a model needs to be of low computational cost, but retains the necessary dynamics seen in high-fidelity models. The objective of this work is to obtain a reduced-order model that represents the full-order flow computed using a high-fidelity model. A variety of methods, including proper orthogonal decomposition and dynamic mode decomposition, can be used to extract the dominant flow structures and obtain a reduced-order model. In this paper, we combine proper orthogonal decomposition with a system identification technique to produce an input-output reduced-order model. This technique is used to construct a reduced-order model of the flow within a two-turbine array computed using a large-eddy simulation.
Seepage Model for PA Including Dift Collapse
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
G. Li; C. Tsang
2000-12-20
The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the predictions and analysis performed using the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (PA) and the Disturbed Drift Seepage Submodel for both the Topopah Spring middle nonlithophysal and lower lithophysal lithostratigraphic units at Yucca Mountain. These results will be used by PA to develop the probability distribution of water seepage into waste-emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as part of the evaluation of the long term performance of the potential repository. This AMR is in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (CRWMS M&O 2000 [153447]). This purpose is accomplished by performing numerical simulations with stochastic representations of hydrological properties, using the Seepage Model for PA, and evaluating the effects of an alternative drift geometry representing a partially collapsed drift using the Disturbed Drift Seepage Submodel. Seepage of water into waste-emplacement drifts is considered one of the principal factors having the greatest impact of long-term safety of the repository system (CRWMS M&O 2000 [153225], Table 4-1). This AMR supports the analysis and simulation that are used by PA to develop the probability distribution of water seepage into drift, and is therefore a model of primary (Level 1) importance (AP-3.15Q, ''Managing Technical Product Inputs''). The intended purpose of the Seepage Model for PA is to support: (1) PA; (2) Abstraction of Drift-Scale Seepage; and (3) Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR). Seepage into drifts is evaluated by applying numerical models with stochastic representations of hydrological properties and performing flow simulations with multiple realizations of the permeability field around the drift. The Seepage Model for PA uses the distribution of permeabilities derived from air injection testing in
Enhanced battery model including temperature effects
Rosca, B.; Wilkins, S.
2013-01-01
Within electric and hybrid vehicles, batteries are used to provide/buffer the energy required for driving. However, battery performance varies throughout the temperature range specific to automotive applications, and as such, models that describe this behaviour are required. This paper presents a dy
Enhanced battery model including temperature effects
Rosca, B.; Wilkins, S.
2013-01-01
Within electric and hybrid vehicles, batteries are used to provide/buffer the energy required for driving. However, battery performance varies throughout the temperature range specific to automotive applications, and as such, models that describe this behaviour are required. This paper presents a dy
Enhanced battery model including temperature effects
Rosca, B.; Wilkins, S.
2013-01-01
Within electric and hybrid vehicles, batteries are used to provide/buffer the energy required for driving. However, battery performance varies throughout the temperature range specific to automotive applications, and as such, models that describe this behaviour are required. This paper presents a
Including spatial data in nutrient balance modelling on dairy farms
van Leeuwen, Maricke; van Middelaar, Corina; Stoof, Cathelijne; Oenema, Jouke; Stoorvogel, Jetse; de Boer, Imke
2017-04-01
The Annual Nutrient Cycle Assessment (ANCA) calculates the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balance at a dairy farm, while taking into account the subsequent nutrient cycles of the herd, manure, soil and crop components. Since January 2016, Dutch dairy farmers are required to use ANCA in order to increase understanding of nutrient flows and to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. A nutrient balance calculates the difference between nutrient inputs and outputs. Nutrients enter the farm via purchased feed, fertilizers, deposition and fixation by legumes (nitrogen), and leave the farm via milk, livestock, manure, and roughages. A positive balance indicates to which extent N and/or P are lost to the environment via gaseous emissions (N), leaching, run-off and accumulation in soil. A negative balance indicates that N and/or P are depleted from soil. ANCA was designed to calculate average nutrient flows on farm level (for the herd, manure, soil and crop components). ANCA was not designed to perform calculations of nutrient flows at the field level, as it uses averaged nutrient inputs and outputs across all fields, and it does not include field specific soil characteristics. Land management decisions, however, such as the level of N and P application, are typically taken at the field level given the specific crop and soil characteristics. Therefore the information that ANCA provides is likely not sufficient to support farmers' decisions on land management to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. This is particularly a problem when land management and soils vary between fields. For an accurate estimate of nutrient flows in a given farming system that can be used to optimize land management, the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs (and thus the effect of land management and soil variation) could be essential. Our aim was to determine the effect of the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs on modelled nutrient flows and nutrient use efficiencies
Output tracking and regulation of nonlinear system based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model.
Ma, X J; Sun, Z Q
2000-01-01
On the basis of the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model, this paper discusses in detail the following three problems: (1) output tracking of the nonlinear system; (2) output regulation of the nonlinear system via a state feedback; (3) output regulation of the nonlinear system via a error feedback. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate the soundness of these results and the effectiveness of the new methodology solving the output tracking and regulation problem of the nonlinear system.
Wage Differentials among Workers in Input-Output Models.
Filippini, Luigi
1981-01-01
Using an input-output framework, the author derives hypotheses on wage differentials based on the assumption that human capital (in this case, education) will explain workers' wage differentials. The hypothetical wage differentials are tested on data from the Italian economy. (RW)
Hodgson, John A; Chi, Sheng-Wei; Yang, Judy P; Chen, Jiun-Shyan; Edgerton, Victor R; Sinha, Shantanu
2012-05-01
The pattern of deformation of different structural components of a muscle-tendon complex when it is activated provides important information about the internal mechanics of the muscle. Recent experimental observations of deformations in contracting muscle have presented inconsistencies with current widely held assumption about muscle behavior. These include negative strain in aponeuroses, non-uniform strain changes in sarcomeres, even of individual muscle fibers and evidence that muscle fiber cross sectional deformations are asymmetrical suggesting a need to readjust current models of contracting muscle. We report here our use of finite element modeling techniques to simulate a simple muscle-tendon complex and investigate the influence of passive intramuscular material properties upon the deformation patterns under isometric and shortening conditions. While phenomenological force-displacement relationships described the muscle fiber properties, the material properties of the passive matrix were varied to simulate a hydrostatic model, compliant and stiff isotropically hyperelastic models and an anisotropic elastic model. The numerical results demonstrate that passive elastic material properties significantly influence the magnitude, heterogeneity and distribution pattern of many measures of deformation in a contracting muscle. Measures included aponeurosis strain, aponeurosis separation, muscle fiber strain and fiber cross-sectional deformation. The force output of our simulations was strongly influenced by passive material properties, changing by as much as ~80% under some conditions. The maximum output was accomplished by introducing anisotropy along axes which were not strained significantly during a muscle length change, suggesting that correct costamere orientation may be a critical factor in the optimal muscle function. Such a model not only fits known physiological data, but also maintains the relatively constant aponeurosis separation observed during in vivo
A global parallel model based design of experiments method to minimize model output uncertainty.
Bazil, Jason N; Buzzard, Gregory T; Rundell, Ann E
2012-03-01
Model-based experiment design specifies the data to be collected that will most effectively characterize the biological system under study. Existing model-based design of experiment algorithms have primarily relied on Fisher Information Matrix-based methods to choose the best experiment in a sequential manner. However, these are largely local methods that require an initial estimate of the parameter values, which are often highly uncertain, particularly when data is limited. In this paper, we provide an approach to specify an informative sequence of multiple design points (parallel design) that will constrain the dynamical uncertainty of the biological system responses to within experimentally detectable limits as specified by the estimated experimental noise. The method is based upon computationally efficient sparse grids and requires only a bounded uncertain parameter space; it does not rely upon initial parameter estimates. The design sequence emerges through the use of scenario trees with experimental design points chosen to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted dynamics of the measurable responses of the system. The algorithm was illustrated herein using a T cell activation model for three problems that ranged in dimension from 2D to 19D. The results demonstrate that it is possible to extract useful information from a mathematical model where traditional model-based design of experiments approaches most certainly fail. The experiments designed via this method fully constrain the model output dynamics to within experimentally resolvable limits. The method is effective for highly uncertain biological systems characterized by deterministic mathematical models with limited data sets. Also, it is highly modular and can be modified to include a variety of methodologies such as input design and model discrimination.
State-shared model for multiple-input multiple-output systems
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Zhenhua TIAN; Karlene A. HOO
2005-01-01
This work proposes a method to construct a state-shared model for multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO)systems. A state-shared model is defined as a linear time invariant state-space structure that is driven by measurement signals-the plant outputs and the manipulated variables, but shared by different multiple input/output models. The genesis of the state-shared model is based on a particular reduced non-minimal realization. Any such realization necessarily fulfills the requirement that the output of the state-shared model is an asymptotically correct estimate of the output of the plant, if the process model is selected appropriately. The approach is demonstrated on a nonlinear MIMO system- a physiological model of calcium fluxes that controls muscle contraction and relaxation in human cardiac myocytes.
Majid, Mazlina Abdul; Siebers, Peer-Olaf
2010-01-01
In this paper, we investigate output accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) model. The purpose of this investigation is to find out which of these simulation techniques is the best one for modelling human reactive behaviour in the retail sector. In order to study the output accuracy in both models, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our simulation models to the performance of a real system. Our experiment was carried out using a large UK department store as a case study. We had to determine an efficient implementation of management policy in the store's fitting room using DES and ABS. Overall, we have found that both simulation models were a good representation of the real system when modelling human reactive behaviour.
Models of asthma: density-equalizing mapping and output benchmarking
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fischer Tanja C
2008-02-01
Full Text Available Abstract Despite the large amount of experimental studies already conducted on bronchial asthma, further insights into the molecular basics of the disease are required to establish new therapeutic approaches. As a basis for this research different animal models of asthma have been developed in the past years. However, precise bibliometric data on the use of different models do not exist so far. Therefore the present study was conducted to establish a data base of the existing experimental approaches. Density-equalizing algorithms were used and data was retrieved from a Thomson Institute for Scientific Information database. During the period from 1900 to 2006 a number of 3489 filed items were connected to animal models of asthma, the first being published in the year 1968. The studies were published by 52 countries with the US, Japan and the UK being the most productive suppliers, participating in 55.8% of all published items. Analyzing the average citation per item as an indicator for research quality Switzerland ranked first (30.54/item and New Zealand ranked second for countries with more than 10 published studies. The 10 most productive journals included 4 with a main focus allergy and immunology and 4 with a main focus on the respiratory system. Two journals focussed on pharmacology or pharmacy. In all assigned subject categories examined for a relation to animal models of asthma, immunology ranked first. Assessing numbers of published items in relation to animal species it was found that mice were the preferred species followed by guinea pigs. In summary it can be concluded from density-equalizing calculations that the use of animal models of asthma is restricted to a relatively small number of countries. There are also differences in the use of species. These differences are based on variations in the research focus as assessed by subject category analysis.
Štaffenová, Daniela; Rybárik, Ján; Jakubčík, Miroslav
2017-06-01
The aim of experimental research in the area of exterior walls and windows suitable for wooden buildings was to build special pavilion laboratories. These laboratories are ideally isolated from the surrounding environment, airtight and controlled by the constant internal climate. The principle of experimental research is measuring and recording of required physical parameters (e.g. temperature or relative humidity). This is done in layers of experimental fragment sections in the direction from exterior to interior, as well as in critical places by stable interior and real exterior climatic conditions. The outputs are evaluations of experimental structures behaviour during the specified time period, possibly during the whole year by stable interior and real exterior boundary conditions. The main aim of this experimental research is processing of long-term measurements of experimental structures and the subsequent analysis. The next part of the research consists of collecting measurements obtained with assistance of the experimental detached weather station, analysis, evaluation for later setting up of reference data set for the research locality, from the point of view of its comparison to the data sets from Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMU) and to localities with similar climate conditions. Later on, the data sets could lead to recommendations for design of wooden buildings.
Evaluation of cardiac output from a tidally ventilated homogeneous lung model.
Benallal, Habib; Beck, Kenneth C; Johnson, Bruce D; Busso, Thierry
2005-10-01
We used the direct Fick measurements to validate a method for estimating cardiac output by iteratively fitting VCO(2) at the mouth to lung model values. This model was run using a series of 50, 30 and 10 breaths to test sensitivity to number of breaths used for fitting. The lung was treated as a catenary two-compartment lung model consisting of a dead space compartment connected with a single alveolar space compartment, perfused with constant pulmonary blood flow. The implemented mathematical modeling described variations in O(2) and CO(2) compartmental fractions and alveolar volume. This model also included pulmonary capillary gas exchange. Experimental data were collected from measurements performed on six healthy subjects at rest and during 20, 40, 60 and 85-90% of peak V(O)(2). The correlation between the two methods was highest and the average agreement between the methods was best using 50 breaths R = 095; P model) = 1.1Q(Fick) - 2.3). The mean difference and lower to upper limits of agreement between measured and estimated data were 0.7 l/min (-2.7 to 4.1 l/min) for cardiac output; -0.9 ml/100 ml (-1.3 to -0.5 ml/100 ml) for arterial O(2) content; -0.8 ml/100 ml (-3.8 to 2.2 ml/100 ml) for mixed venous O(2) content and -0.1 ml/100 ml (-2.9 to 2.7 ml/100 ml) for arteriovenous difference O(2) content. The cardiac output estimated by the lung model was in good agreement with the direct Fick measurements in young healthy subjects.
Developing Snow Model Forcing Data From WRF Model Output to Aid in Water Resource Forecasting
Havens, S.; Marks, D. G.; Watson, K. A.; Masarik, M.; Flores, A. N.; Kormos, P.; Hedrick, A. R.
2015-12-01
Traditional operational modeling tools used by water managers in the west are challenged by more frequently occurring uncharacteristic stream flow patterns caused by climate change. Water managers are now turning to new models based on the physical processes within a watershed to combat the increasing number of events that do not follow the historical patterns. The USDA-ARS has provided near real time snow water equivalent (SWE) maps using iSnobal since WY2012 for the Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho and since WY2013 for the Tuolumne Basin in California that feeds the Hetch Hetchy reservoir. The goal of these projects is to not only provide current snowpack estimates but to use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to drive iSnobal in order to produce a forecasted stream flow when coupled to a hydrology model. The first step is to develop methods on how to create snow model forcing data from WRF outputs. Using a reanalysis 1km WRF dataset from WY2009 over the Boise River Basin, WRF model results like surface air temperature, relative humidity, wind, precipitation, cloud cover, and incoming long wave radiation must be downscaled for use in iSnobal. iSnobal results forced with WRF output are validated at point locations throughout the basin, as well as compared with iSnobal results forced with traditional weather station data. The presentation will explore the differences in forcing data derived from WRF outputs and weather stations and how this affects the snowpack distribution.
Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models
Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr
2016-04-01
Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include
H(infinity) output tracking control for nonlinear systems via T-S fuzzy model approach.
Lin, Chong; Wang, Qing-Guo; Lee, Tong Heng
2006-04-01
This paper studies the problem of H(infinity) output tracking control for nonlinear time-delay systems using Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model approach. An LMI-based design method is proposed for achieving the output tracking purpose. Illustrative examples are given to show the effectiveness of the present results.
Archive Access to the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Suite of Model Output
Rutledge, G. K.; Schuster, D.; Worley, S.; Stepaniak, D.; Toth, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Bougeault, P.; Anthony, S.
2008-05-01
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Programme (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), is a key component of the World Weather Research Programme intended to accelerate improvements in 1-day to 2-week weather forecasts. Centralized archives of ensemble model forecast data, from many international centers, are being used to enable extensive data sharing and research during Phase I of the project. The designated TIGGE archive centers include the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA), The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Scientific data requirements and archive planning solidified in late 2005, and archive collection was initiated in October 2006 with receipt of partial sets of parameters from multiple data providers. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1-2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near-real-time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at CMA, ECMWF and NCAR. The objective of TIGGE (GEO task WE-06-03) is to establish closer cooperation between the academic and operational community by encouraging use of operational products for research, and to explore actively the concept and benefits of multi- model probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on severe weather prediction. The future operational use of the TIGGE infrastructure as part of a "Global Interactive Forecasting System" will be considered, subject to positive results from research undertaken with the TIGGE data archives. The Unidata Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system is the primary mode used to transport ensemble model data from the data providers to the archive centers. ECMWF acts as one initial collection point to collect model output from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Meteo
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Gelfan
2015-02-01
Full Text Available An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to the uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties. Importantly, the role of the internal atmospheric variability is the most visible over the spatial–temporal scales of water management in large river basins. The internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. The ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012 and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of the bias-corrected ECHAM5-outputs as well as ensemble averaged ECHAM5-output are used as the distributed input for ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and the Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the SD of the annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as the annual runoff trend are assessed. The uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by the internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that the uncertainty of the mean and SD of the runoff has a distinguished seasonal dependence with maximum during the periods of spring-summer snowmelt and summer-autumn rainfall floods. A noticeable non-linearity of the hydrological models' response to the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvine River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. The simulated trends are close to
Application of Gray Metabolic Model in the Prediction of the Cotton Output in China
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
2011-01-01
In order to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, Gray Metabolic Forecast Model is established based on both the Gray Forecast Model and the Metabolic Theory. According to the actual situation, forecast results of conventional GM (1, 1) Model and Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model are analyzed, showing that Metabolic Forecast Model has higher precision than the conventional forecast model. Therefore, Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model is used to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, which is 614 968.3 thousand tons.
Wei, Xile; Lu, Meili; Wang, Jiang; Tsang, K. M.; Deng, Bin; Che, Yanqiu
2010-05-01
We consider the assumption of existence of the general nonlinear internal model that is introduced in the design of robust output regulators for a class of minimum-phase nonlinear systems with rth degree (r ≥ 2). The robust output regulation problem can be converted into a robust stabilisation problem of an augmented system consisting of the given plant and a high-gain nonlinear internal model, perfectly reproducing the bounded including not only periodic but also nonperiodic exogenous signal from a nonlinear system, which satisfies some general immersion assumption. The state feedback controller is designed to guarantee the asymptotic convergence of system errors to zero manifold. Furthermore, the proposed scheme makes use of output feedback dynamic controller that only processes information from the regulated output error by using high-gain observer to robustly estimate the derivatives of the regulated output error. The stabilisation analysis of the resulting closed-loop systems leads to regional as well as semi-global robust output regulation achieved for some appointed initial condition in the state space, for all possible values of the uncertain parameter vector and the exogenous signal, ranging over an arbitrary compact set.
Investigation on the integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
BAO Nengsheng; MA Xiuqian; NI Weidou
2007-01-01
The integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm is needed when estimating the wind farm's output over a period of time in the future.The actual wind speed power model and calculation method of a wind farm made up of many wind turbine units are discussed.After analyzing the incoming wind flow characteristics and their energy distributions,and after considering the multi-effects among the wind turbine units and certain assumptions,the incoming wind flow model of multi-units is built.The calculation algorithms and steps of the integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm are provided.Finally,an actual power output of the wind farm is calculated and analyzed by using the practical measurement wind speed data.The characteristics of a large-scale wind farm are also discussed.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface and sub-surface current model outputs were obtained from researchers at the University of Massachusetts-Boston to examine spatial and temporal current...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface and sub-surface current model outputs were obtained from researchers at the University of Massachusetts-Boston to examine spatial and temporal current...
Average and Small Signal Modeling of Negative-Output KY Boost Converter in CCM Operation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Faqiang Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Negative-output KY Boost converter, which can obtain the negative output voltage and could be driven easily, is a good topology to overcome traditional Boost and Buck-Boost converters and it is believed that this converter will be widely used in engineering applications in the future. In this study, by using the averaging method and geometrical technique, the average and small signal model of the negative-output KY Boost converter are established. The DC equilibrium point and transfer functions of the system are derived and analyzed. Finally, the effectiveness of the established model and the correctness of the theoretical analysis are confirmed by the circuit experiment.
Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs
Wilby, Robert L.
2013-04-01
Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to
Evaluation of bias correction methods for wave modeling output
Parker, K.; Hill, D. F.
2017-02-01
Models that seek to predict environmental variables invariably demonstrate bias when compared to observations. Bias correction (BC) techniques are common in the climate and hydrological modeling communities, but have seen fewer applications to the field of wave modeling. In particular there has been no investigation as to which BC methodology performs best for wave modeling. This paper introduces and compares a subset of BC methods with the goal of clarifying a "best practice" methodology for application of BC in studies of wave-related processes. Specific focus is paid to comparing parametric vs. empirical methods as well as univariate vs. bivariate methods. The techniques are tested on global WAVEWATCH III historic and future period datasets with comparison to buoy observations at multiple locations. Both wave height and period are considered in order to investigate BC effects on inter-variable correlation. Results show that all methods perform uniformly in terms of correcting statistical moments for individual variables with the exception of a copula based method underperforming for wave period. When comparing parametric and empirical methods, no difference is found. Between bivariate and univariate methods, results show that bivariate methods greatly improve inter-variable correlations. Of the bivariate methods tested the copula based method is found to be not as effective at correcting correlation while a "shuffling" method is unable to handle changes in correlation from historic to future periods. In summary, this study demonstrates that BC methods are effective when applied to wave model data and that it is essential to employ methods that consider dependence between variables.
Estimation of sectoral prices in the BNL energy input--output model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tessmer, R.G. Jr.; Groncki, P.; Boyce, G.W. Jr.
1977-12-01
Value-added coefficients have been incorporated into Brookhaven's Energy Input-Output Model so that one can calculate the implicit price at which each sector sells its output to interindustry and final-demand purchasers. Certain adjustments to historical 1967 data are required because of the unique structure of the model. Procedures are also described for projecting energy-sector coefficients in future years that are consistent with exogenously specified energy prices.
Optimal cycling time trial position models: aerodynamics versus power output and metabolic energy.
Fintelman, D M; Sterling, M; Hemida, H; Li, F-X
2014-06-03
The aerodynamic drag of a cyclist in time trial (TT) position is strongly influenced by the torso angle. While decreasing the torso angle reduces the drag, it limits the physiological functioning of the cyclist. Therefore the aims of this study were to predict the optimal TT cycling position as function of the cycling speed and to determine at which speed the aerodynamic power losses start to dominate. Two models were developed to determine the optimal torso angle: a 'Metabolic Energy Model' and a 'Power Output Model'. The Metabolic Energy Model minimised the required cycling energy expenditure, while the Power Output Model maximised the cyclists׳ power output. The input parameters were experimentally collected from 19 TT cyclists at different torso angle positions (0-24°). The results showed that for both models, the optimal torso angle depends strongly on the cycling speed, with decreasing torso angles at increasing speeds. The aerodynamic losses outweigh the power losses at cycling speeds above 46km/h. However, a fully horizontal torso is not optimal. For speeds below 30km/h, it is beneficial to ride in a more upright TT position. The two model outputs were not completely similar, due to the different model approaches. The Metabolic Energy Model could be applied for endurance events, while the Power Output Model is more suitable in sprinting or in variable conditions (wind, undulating course, etc.). It is suggested that despite some limitations, the models give valuable information about improving the cycling performance by optimising the TT cycling position.
Yu, Jiang-Bo; Zhao, Yan; Wu, Yu-Qiang
2014-04-01
This article considers the global robust output regulation problem via output feedback for a class of cascaded nonlinear systems with input-to-state stable inverse dynamics. The system uncertainties depend not only on the measured output but also all the unmeasurable states. By introducing an internal model, the output regulation problem is converted into a stabilisation problem for an appropriately augmented system. The designed dynamic controller could achieve the global asymptotic tracking control for a class of time-varying reference signals for the system output while keeping all other closed-loop signals bounded. It is of interest to note that the developed control approach can be applied to the speed tracking control of the fan speed control system. The simulation results demonstrate its effectiveness.
Xia, Mingjun; Ghafouri-Shiraz, H
2016-03-01
This paper reports a new model for strained quantum well lasers, which are based on the quantum well transmission line modeling method where effects of both carrier transport and carrier heating have been included. We have applied this new model and studied the effect of carrier transport on the output waveform of a strained quantum well laser both in time and frequency domains. It has been found that the carrier transport increases the turn-on, turn-off delay times and damping of the quantum well laser transient response. Also, analysis in the frequency domain indicates that the carrier transport causes the output spectrum of the quantum well laser in steady state to exhibit a redshift which has a narrower bandwidth and lower magnitude. The simulation results of turning-on transients obtained by the proposed model are compared with those obtained by the rate equation laser model. The new model has also been used to study the effects of pump current spikes on the laser output waveforms properties, and it was found that the presence of current spikes causes (i) wavelength blueshift, (ii) larger bandwidth, and (iii) reduces the magnitude and decreases the side-lobe suppression ratio of the laser output spectrum. Analysis in both frequency and time domains confirms that the new proposed model can accurately predict the temporal and spectral behaviors of strained quantum well lasers.
International trade inoperability input-output model (IT-IIM): theory and application.
Jung, Jeesang; Santos, Joost R; Haimes, Yacov Y
2009-01-01
The inoperability input-output model (IIM) has been used for analyzing disruptions due to man-made or natural disasters that can adversely affect the operation of economic systems or critical infrastructures. Taking economic perturbation for each sector as inputs, the IIM provides the degree of economic production impacts on all industry sectors as the outputs for the model. The current version of the IIM does not provide a separate analysis for the international trade component of the inoperability. If an important port of entry (e.g., Port of Los Angeles) is disrupted, then international trade inoperability becomes a highly relevant subject for analysis. To complement the current IIM, this article develops the International Trade-IIM (IT-IIM). The IT-IIM investigates the resulting international trade inoperability for all industry sectors resulting from disruptions to a major port of entry. Similar to traditional IIM analysis, the inoperability metrics that the IT-IIM provides can be used to prioritize economic sectors based on the losses they could potentially incur. The IT-IIM is used to analyze two types of direct perturbations: (1) the reduced capacity of ports of entry, including harbors and airports (e.g., a shutdown of any port of entry); and (2) restrictions on commercial goods that foreign countries trade with the base nation (e.g., embargo).
A Water-Withdrawal Input-Output Model of the Indian Economy.
Bogra, Shelly; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Mathur, Ritu
2016-02-02
Managing freshwater allocation for a highly populated and growing economy like India can benefit from knowledge about the effect of economic activities. This study transforms the 2003-2004 economic input-output (IO) table of India into a water withdrawal input-output model to quantify direct and indirect flows. This unique model is based on a comprehensive database compiled from diverse public sources, and estimates direct and indirect water withdrawal of all economic sectors. It distinguishes between green (rainfall), blue (surface and ground), and scarce groundwater. Results indicate that the total direct water withdrawal is nearly 3052 billion cubic meter (BCM) and 96% of this is used in agriculture sectors with the contribution of direct green water being about 1145 BCM, excluding forestry. Apart from 727 BCM direct blue water withdrawal for agricultural, other significant users include "Electricity" with 64 BCM, "Water supply" with 44 BCM and other industrial sectors with nearly 14 BCM. "Construction", "miscellaneous food products"; "Hotels and restaurants"; "Paper, paper products, and newsprint" are other significant indirect withdrawers. The net virtual water import is found to be insignificant compared to direct water used in agriculture nationally, while scarce ground water associated with crops is largely contributed by northern states.
Canli, Ekrem; Thiebes, Benni; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas
2015-04-01
By now there is a broad consensus that due to human-induced global change the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation events is expected to increase in certain parts of the world. Given the fact, that rainfall serves as the most common triggering agent for landslide initiation, also an increased landside activity can be expected there. Landslide occurrence is a globally spread phenomenon that clearly needs to be handled. The present and well known problems in modelling landslide susceptibility and hazard give uncertain results in the prediction. This includes the lack of a universal applicable modelling solution for adequately assessing landslide susceptibility (which can be seen as the relative indication of the spatial probability of landslide initiation). Generally speaking, there are three major approaches for performing landslide susceptibility analysis: heuristic, statistical and deterministic models, all with different assumptions, its distinctive data requirements and differently interpretable outcomes. Still, detailed comparison of resulting landslide susceptibility maps are rare. In this presentation, the susceptibility modelling outputs of a deterministic model (Stability INdex MAPping - SINMAP) and a statistical modelling approach (generalized additive model - GAM) are compared. SINMAP is an infinite slope stability model which requires parameterization of soil mechanical parameters. Modelling with the generalized additive model, which represents a non-linear extension of a generalized linear model, requires a high quality landslide inventory that serves as the dependent variable in the statistical approach. Both methods rely on topographical data derived from the DTM. The comparison has been carried out in a study area located in the district of Waidhofen/Ybbs in Lower Austria. For the whole district (ca. 132 km²), 1063 landslides have been mapped and partially used within the analysis and the validation of the model outputs. The respective
Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. E. Robertson
2013-02-01
Full Text Available Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1 when the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to antecedent rainfall, (2 when the catchment is drying and the dominant source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and base flow, and (3 when the initial catchment condition is near saturation intermittently throughout the historical record.
Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output
Robertson, D. E.; Pokhrel, P.; Wang, Q. J.
2013-02-01
Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1) when the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to antecedent rainfall, (2) when the catchment is drying and the dominant source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and base flow, and (3) when the initial catchment condition is near saturation intermittently throughout the historical record.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Guixiong LIU; Peiqiang ZHANG; Chen XU
2009-01-01
Magnetic fluid is first introduced into thetraditional cantileverbeam senor. Based on the property of the cantilever-beam and the novel controllable mag-viscosity of magnetic fluid, the output of cantilever-beam sensors is under control so that the controllable output of the sensors can be realized. The mathematical model of the sensors is established and analyzed. The dynamic control function and the following educational results, which include the two curves of the displacement ratio and phase function with the different damping ratio and frequency ratio, are obtained based on the model. The result shows that it is valid to realize the controllable output of the sensors by controlling the viscosity of the magnetic fluid,and finally the expanded measurement range can be realized.
Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-01-27
Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.
Regional input-output models and the treatment of imports in the European System of Accounts
Kronenberg, Tobias
2011-01-01
Input-output models are often used in regional science due to their versatility and their ability to capture many of the distinguishing features of a regional economy. Input-output tables are available for all EU member countries, but they are hard to find at the regional level, since many regional governments lack the resources or the will to produce reliable, survey-based regional input-output tables. Therefore, in many cases researchers adopt nonsurvey techniques to derive regional input-o...
Modeling and control of the output current of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Pasupathi, Sivakumar
2015-01-01
In this work, a dynamic Matlab SIMULINK model of the relationship between the fuel cell current set point of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system and the output current of the system is developed. The model contains an estimated fuel cell model, based on a polarization curve and assumed first order...
Regional Input Output Models and the FLQ Formula: A Case Study of Finland
Tony Flegg; Paul White
2008-01-01
This paper examines the use of location quotients (LQs) in constructing regional input-output models. Its focus is on the augmented FLQ formula (AFLQ) proposed by Flegg and Webber, 2000, which takes regional specialization explicitly into account. In our case study, we examine data for 20 Finnish regions, ranging in size from very small to very large, in order to assess the relative performance of the AFLQ formula in estimating regional imports, total intermediate inputs and output multiplier...
Interregional spillovers in Spain: an estimation using an interregional input-output model
Llano, Carlos
2009-01-01
In this note we introduce the 1995 Spanish Interregional Input-Output Model, which was estimated using a wide set of One-region input-output tables and interregional trade matrices, estimated for each sector using interregional transport flows. Based on this framework, and by means of the Hypothetical Regional Extraction Method, the interregional backward and feedback effects are computed, capturing the pull effect of every region over the rest of Spain, through their sectoral relations withi...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong
2017-01-01
We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state. We use this technique to determine the steady-state responses of low cloud fraction and latent heat flux to heating perturbations over 22 regions spanning Earth's oceans. We show that the response characteristics are similar to those of step-change simulations, but in this new method the responses for 22 regions can be characterized simultaneously. Furthermore, we can estimate the timescale over which the steady-state response emerges. The proposed methodology could be useful for a wide variety of purposes in climate science, including characterization of teleconnections and uncertainty quantification to identify the effects of climate model tuning parameters.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shi, Yan; Wu, Tiecheng; Cai, Maolin; Liu, Chong [Beihang University, Beijing (China)
2016-03-15
Hydropneumatic transformer (short for HP transformer) is used to pump pressurized hydraulic oil. Whereas, due to its insufficient usage of energy and low efficiency, a new kind of HP transformer: EEUHP transformer (Expansion energy used hydropneumatic transformer) was proposed. To illustrate the characteristics of the EEUHP transformer, a mathematical model was built. To verify the mathematical model, an experimental prototype was setup and studied. Through simulation and experimental study on the EEUHP transformer, the influence of five key parameters on the output flow of the EEUHP transformer were obtained, and some conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, the mathematical model was proved to be valid. Furthermore, the EEUHP transformer costs fewer of compressed air than the normal HP transformer when the output flow of the two kinds of transformers are almost same. Moreover, with an increase in the output pressure, the output flow decreases sharply. Finally, with an increase in the effective area of hydraulic output port, the output flow increases distinctly. This research can be referred to in the performance and design optimization of the EEUHP transformers.
Generalisation benefits of output gating in a model of prefrontal cortex
Kriete, Trent; Noelle, David C.
2011-06-01
The prefrontal cortex (PFC) plays a central role in flexible cognitive control, including the suppression of habitual responding in favour of situation-appropriate behaviours that can be quite novel. PFC provides a kind of working memory, maintaining the rules, goals, and/or actions that are to control behaviour in the current context. For flexible control, these PFC representations must be sufficiently componential to support systematic generalisation to novel situations. The anatomical structure of PFC can be seen as implementing a componential 'slot-filler' structure, with different components encoded over isolated pools of neurons. Previous PFC models have highlighted the importance of a dynamic gating mechanism to selectively update individual 'slot' contents. In this article, we present simulation results that suggest that systematic generalisation also requires an 'output gating' mechanism that limits the influence of PFC on more posterior brain areas to reflect a small number of representational components at any one time.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ono, Koji.
1988-02-01
VOR and DME data can be accurate enough for the purpose of navigation. The accuracy is, however, not satisfactory for the analysis of flight test data, and must be improved by the combined use of other sensor systems. The result of the experiment carried out to clarify and model the statistical characteristics of noises contained in the DME output is reported. The statistical characteristics of noises in DME data were studied by flight tests using two DME systems and one Doppler radar system currently installed in VSRA (variable stability and response airplane). 2 residuals are obtained by a compatibility check of the data of the 2 DME and 1 Doppler radar, and the statistical characteristics of noises contained in the DME data and Doppler radar data can be separately identified. 23 references, 11 figures, 1 table.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Carman, R.J. [Centre for Lasers and Applications, Macquarie University, North Ryde, Sydney, New South Wales 2109 (Australia)
1997-07-01
A self-consistent computer model was used to simulate the plasma kinetics (radially resolved) and parametric behaviour of an 18 mm bore (6 W) copper vapour laser for a wide range of optimum and non-optimum operating conditions. Good quantitative agreement was obtained between modelled results and experimental data including the temporal evolution of the 4p{sup 2}P{sub 3/2}, 4s{sup 2} {sup 2}D{sub 5/2} and 4s{sup 2}{sup 2}D{sub 3/2} Cu laser level populations derived from hook method measurements. The modelled results show that the two most important parameters that affect laser behaviour are the ground state copper density and the peak electron temperature T{sub e}. For a given pulse repetition frequency (prf), maximum laser power is achieved by matching the copper atom density to the input pulse energy thereby maintaining the peak T{sub e} at around 3 eV. However, there is a threshold wall temperature (and copper density) above which the plasma tube becomes thermally unstable. At low prf ({lt}8 kHz), this thermal instability limits the attainable copper density (and consequently the laser output power) to values below the optimum for matching to the input pulse energy. For higher prf values ({gt}8 kHz), the copper density can be matched to the input pulse energy to give maximum laser power because the corresponding wall temperature then falls below the threshold temperature for thermal instability. For prf {gt}14 kHz, the laser output becomes highly annular across the tube diameter due to a severe depletion of the copper atom density on axis caused by radial ion pumping. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}
Laguerre-Volterra model and architecture for MIMO system identification and output prediction.
Li, Will X Y; Xin, Yao; Chan, Rosa H M; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W; Cheung, Ray C C
2014-01-01
A generalized mathematical model is proposed for behaviors prediction of biological causal systems with multiple inputs and multiple outputs (MIMO). The system properties are represented by a set of model parameters, which can be derived with random input stimuli probing it. The system calculates predicted outputs based on the estimated parameters and its novel inputs. An efficient hardware architecture is established for this mathematical model and its circuitry has been implemented using the field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). This architecture is scalable and its functionality has been validated by using experimental data gathered from real-world measurement.
Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model
Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong
2016-01-01
In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying
Multi input single output model predictive control of non-linear bio-polymerization process
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Arumugasamy, Senthil Kumar; Ahmad, Z. [School of Chemical Engineering, Univerisiti Sains Malaysia, Engineering Campus, Seri Ampangan,14300 Nibong Tebal, Seberang Perai Selatan, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia)
2015-05-15
This paper focuses on Multi Input Single Output (MISO) Model Predictive Control of bio-polymerization process in which mechanistic model is developed and linked with the feedforward neural network model to obtain a hybrid model (Mechanistic-FANN) of lipase-catalyzed ring-opening polymerization of ε-caprolactone (ε-CL) for Poly (ε-caprolactone) production. In this research, state space model was used, in which the input to the model were the reactor temperatures and reactor impeller speeds and the output were the molecular weight of polymer (M{sub n}) and polymer polydispersity index. State space model for MISO created using System identification tool box of Matlab™. This state space model is used in MISO MPC. Model predictive control (MPC) has been applied to predict the molecular weight of the biopolymer and consequently control the molecular weight of biopolymer. The result shows that MPC is able to track reference trajectory and give optimum movement of manipulated variable.
He, Yuning
2015-01-01
Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.
Zattoni, Elena
2017-01-01
This paper investigates the problem of structural model matching by output feedback in linear impulsive systems with control feedthrough. Namely, given a linear impulsive plant, possibly featuring an algebraic link from the control input to the output, and given a linear impulsive model, the problem consists in finding a linear impulsive regulator that achieves exact matching between the respective forced responses of the linear impulsive plant and of the linear impulsive model, for all the admissible input functions and all the admissible sequences of jump times, by means of a dynamic feedback of the plant output. The problem solvability is characterized by a necessary and sufficient condition. The regulator synthesis is outlined through the proof of sufficiency, which is constructive.
Modelling and Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Artificial Neural Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aminmohammad Saberian
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a solar power modelling method using artificial neural networks (ANNs. Two neural network structures, namely, general regression neural network (GRNN feedforward back propagation (FFBP, have been used to model a photovoltaic panel output power and approximate the generated power. Both neural networks have four inputs and one output. The inputs are maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and irradiance; the output is the power. The data used in this paper started from January 1, 2006, until December 31, 2010. The five years of data were split into two parts: 2006–2008 and 2009-2010; the first part was used for training and the second part was used for testing the neural networks. A mathematical equation is used to estimate the generated power. At the end, both of these networks have shown good modelling performance; however, FFBP has shown a better performance comparing with GRNN.
Modelling of Dual-Junction Solar Cells including Tunnel Junction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdelaziz Amine
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Monolithically stacked multijunction solar cells based on III–V semiconductors materials are the state-of-art of approach for high efficiency photovoltaic energy conversion, in particular for space applications. The individual subcells of the multi-junction structure are interconnected via tunnel diodes which must be optically transparent and connect the component cells with a minimum electrical resistance. The quality of these diodes determines the output performance of the solar cell. The purpose of this work is to contribute to the investigation of the tunnel electrical resistance of such a multi-junction cell through the analysis of the current-voltage (J-V characteristics under illumination. Our approach is based on an equivalent circuit model of a diode for each subcell. We examine the effect of tunnel resistance on the performance of a multi-junction cell using minimization of the least squares technique.
Modeling of Output Characteristics of a UV Cu+ Ne-CuBr Laser
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Snezhana Georgieva Gocheva-Ilieva
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper examines experiment data for a Ne-CuBr UV copper ion laser excited by longitudinal pulsed discharge emitting in multiline regime. The flexible multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSs method has been used to develop nonparametric regression models describing the laser output power and service life of the devices. The models have been constructed as explicit functions of 9 basic input laser characteristics. The obtained models account for local nonlinearities of the relationships within the various multivariate subregions. The built best MARS models account for over 98% of data. The models are used to estimate the investigated output laser characteristics of existing UV lasers. The capabilities for using the models in predicting existing and future experiments have been demonstrated. Specific analyses have been presented comparing the models with actual experiments. The obtained results are applicable for guiding and planning the engineering experiment. The modeling methodology can be applied for a wide range of similar lasers and laser devices.
Dynamic hysteresis modeling including skin effect using diffusion equation model
Hamada, Souad; Louai, Fatima Zohra; Nait-Said, Nasreddine; Benabou, Abdelkader
2016-07-01
An improved dynamic hysteresis model is proposed for the prediction of hysteresis loop of electrical steel up to mean frequencies, taking into account the skin effect. In previous works, the analytical solution of the diffusion equation for low frequency (DELF) was coupled with the inverse static Jiles-Atherton (JA) model in order to represent the hysteresis behavior for a lamination. In the present paper, this approach is improved to ensure the reproducibility of measured hysteresis loops at mean frequency. The results of simulation are compared with the experimental ones. The selected results for frequencies 50 Hz, 100 Hz, 200 Hz and 400 Hz are presented and discussed.
Dynamic hysteresis modeling including skin effect using diffusion equation model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hamada, Souad, E-mail: souadhamada@yahoo.fr [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Louai, Fatima Zohra, E-mail: fz_louai@yahoo.com [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Nait-Said, Nasreddine, E-mail: n_naitsaid@yahoo.com [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Benabou, Abdelkader, E-mail: Abdelkader.Benabou@univ-lille1.fr [L2EP, Université de Lille1, 59655 Villeneuve d’Ascq (France)
2016-07-15
An improved dynamic hysteresis model is proposed for the prediction of hysteresis loop of electrical steel up to mean frequencies, taking into account the skin effect. In previous works, the analytical solution of the diffusion equation for low frequency (DELF) was coupled with the inverse static Jiles-Atherton (JA) model in order to represent the hysteresis behavior for a lamination. In the present paper, this approach is improved to ensure the reproducibility of measured hysteresis loops at mean frequency. The results of simulation are compared with the experimental ones. The selected results for frequencies 50 Hz, 100 Hz, 200 Hz and 400 Hz are presented and discussed.
CM-DataONE: A Framework for collaborative analysis of climate model output
Xu, Hao; Bai, Yuqi; Li, Sha; Dong, Wenhao; Huang, Wenyu; Xu, Shiming; Lin, Yanluan; Wang, Bin
2015-04-01
CM-DataONE is a distributed collaborative analysis framework for climate model data which aims to break through the data access barriers of increasing file size and to accelerate research process. As data size involved in project such as the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has reached petabytes, conventional methods for analysis and diagnosis of model outputs have been rather time-consuming and redundant. CM-DataONE is developed for data publishers and researchers from relevant areas. It can enable easy access to distributed data and provide extensible analysis functions based on tools such as NCAR Command Language, NetCDF Operators (NCO) and Climate Data Operators (CDO). CM-DataONE can be easily installed, configured, and maintained. The main web application has two separate parts which communicate with each other through APIs based on HTTP protocol. The analytic server is designed to be installed in each data node while a data portal can be configured anywhere and connect to a nearest node. Functions such as data query, analytic task submission, status monitoring, visualization and product downloading are provided to end users by data portal. Data conform to CMIP5 Model Output Format in each peer node can be scanned by the server and mapped to a global information database. A scheduler included in the server is responsible for task decomposition, distribution and consolidation. Analysis functions are always executed where data locate. Analysis function package included in the server has provided commonly used functions such as EOF analysis, trend analysis and time series. Functions are coupled with data by XML descriptions and can be easily extended. Various types of results can be obtained by users for further studies. This framework has significantly decreased the amount of data to be transmitted and improved efficiency in model intercomparison jobs by supporting online analysis and multi-node collaboration. To end users, data query is
Zuo, Shan; Song, Yongduan; Lewis, Frank L; Davoudi, Ali
2017-01-04
This paper studies the output containment control of linear heterogeneous multi-agent systems, where the system dynamics and even the state dimensions can generally be different. Since the states can have different dimensions, standard results from state containment control do not apply. Therefore, the control objective is to guarantee the convergence of the output of each follower to the dynamic convex hull spanned by the outputs of leaders. This can be achieved by making certain output containment errors go to zero asymptotically. Based on this formulation, two different control protocols, namely, full-state feedback and static output-feedback, are designed based on internal model principles. Sufficient local conditions for the existence of the proposed control protocols are developed in terms of stabilizing the local followers' dynamics and satisfying a certain H∞ criterion. Unified design procedures to solve the proposed two control protocols are presented by formulation and solution of certain local state-feedback and static output-feedback problems, respectively. Numerical simulations are given to validate the proposed control protocols.
Unsteady panel method for complex configurations including wake modeling
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Van Zyl, Lourens H
2008-01-01
Full Text Available implementations of the DLM are however not very versatile in terms of geometries that can be modeled. The ZONA6 code offers a versatile surface panel body model including a separated wake model, but uses a pressure panel method for lifting surfaces. This paper...
Modeling Electric Double-Layers Including Chemical Reaction Effects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel; Johannesson, Björn; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.
2014-01-01
A physicochemical and numerical model for the transient formation of an electric double-layer between an electrolyte and a chemically-active flat surface is presented, based on a finite elements integration of the nonlinear Nernst-Planck-Poisson model including chemical reactions. The model works...
Queueing model for an ATM multiplexer with unequal input/output link capacities
Long, Y. H.; Ho, T. K.; Rad, A. B.; Lam, S. P. S.
1998-10-01
We present a queuing model for an ATM multiplexer with unequal input/output link capacities in this paper. This model can be used to analyze the buffer behaviors of an ATM multiplexer which multiplexes low speed input links into a high speed output link. For this queuing mode, we assume that the input and output slot times are not equal, this is quite different from most analysis of discrete-time queues for ATM multiplexer/switch. In the queuing analysis, we adopt a correlated arrival process represented by the Discrete-time Batch Markovian Arrival Process. The analysis is based upon M/G/1 type queue technique which enables easy numerical computation. Queue length distributions observed at different epochs and queue length distribution seen by an arbitrary arrival cell when it enters the buffer are given.
3D Visualization of Hydrological Model Outputs For a Better Understanding of Multi-Scale Phenomena
Richard, J.; Schertzer, D. J. M.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.
2014-12-01
During the last decades, many hydrological models has been created to simulate extreme events or scenarios on catchments. The classical outputs of these models are 2D maps, time series or graphs, which are easily understood by scientists, but not so much by many stakeholders, e.g. mayors or local authorities, and the general public. One goal of the Blue Green Dream project is to create outputs that are adequate for them. To reach this goal, we decided to convert most of the model outputs into a unique 3D visualization interface that combines all of them. This conversion has to be performed with an hydrological thinking to keep the information consistent with the context and the raw outputs.We focus our work on the conversion of the outputs of the Multi-Hydro (MH) model, which is physically based, fully distributed and with a GIS data interface. MH splits the urban water cycle into 4 components: the rainfall, the surface runoff, the infiltration and the drainage. To each of them, corresponds a modeling module with specific inputs and outputs. The superimposition of all this information will highlight the model outputs and help to verify the quality of the raw input data. For example, the spatial and the time variability of the rain generated by the rainfall module will be directly visible in 4D (3D + time) before running a full simulation. It is the same with the runoff module: because the result quality depends of the resolution of the rasterized land use, it will confirm or not the choice of the cell size.As most of the inputs and outputs are GIS files, two main conversions will be applied to display the results into 3D. First, a conversion from vector files to 3D objects. For example, buildings are defined in 2D inside a GIS vector file. Each polygon can be extruded with an height to create volumes. The principle is the same for the roads but an intrusion, instead of an extrusion, is done inside the topography file. The second main conversion is the raster
El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R
2014-03-01
Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics.
Circuit Modeling of a MEMS Varactor Including Dielectric Charging Dynamics
Giounanlis, P.; Andrade-Miceli, D.; Gorreta, S.; Pons-Nin, J.; Dominguez-Pumar, M.; Blokhina, E.
2016-10-01
Electrical models for MEMS varactors including the effect of dielectric charging dynamics are not available in commercial circuit simulators. In this paper a circuit model using lumped ideal elements available in the Cadence libraries and a basic Verilog-A model, has been implemented. The model has been used to simulate the dielectric charging in function of time and its effects over the MEMS capacitance value.
Berger, Theodore W; Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H M; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; LaCoss, Jeff; Wills, Jack; Hampson, Robert E; Deadwyler, Sam A; Granacki, John J
2012-03-01
This paper describes the development of a cognitive prosthesis designed to restore the ability to form new long-term memories typically lost after damage to the hippocampus. The animal model used is delayed nonmatch-to-sample (DNMS) behavior in the rat, and the "core" of the prosthesis is a biomimetic multi-input/multi-output (MIMO) nonlinear model that provides the capability for predicting spatio-temporal spike train output of hippocampus (CA1) based on spatio-temporal spike train inputs recorded presynaptically to CA1 (e.g., CA3). We demonstrate the capability of the MIMO model for highly accurate predictions of CA1 coded memories that can be made on a single-trial basis and in real-time. When hippocampal CA1 function is blocked and long-term memory formation is lost, successful DNMS behavior also is abolished. However, when MIMO model predictions are used to reinstate CA1 memory-related activity by driving spatio-temporal electrical stimulation of hippocampal output to mimic the patterns of activity observed in control conditions, successful DNMS behavior is restored. We also outline the design in very-large-scale integration for a hardware implementation of a 16-input, 16-output MIMO model, along with spike sorting, amplification, and other functions necessary for a total system, when coupled together with electrode arrays to record extracellularly from populations of hippocampal neurons, that can serve as a cognitive prosthesis in behaving animals.
Including investment risk in large-scale power market models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.
2003-01-01
can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate......Long-term energy market models can be used to examine investments in production technologies, however, with market liberalisation it is crucial that such models include investment risks and investor behaviour. This paper analyses how the effect of investment risk on production technology selection...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mikryukova E. V.
2014-12-01
Full Text Available In the article we present a method of cutting logs, containing several quality areas. For this method, a mathematical model was developed to determine the volumetric output of lumber, which allows to determine the geometric dimensions of the lumber cut from the different quality areas separated concentric circles, depending on size and quality characteristics of logs
A model to calculate cardiac output in hemodialysis patients by thermodilution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alayoud Ahmed
2012-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract The Blood Temperature Monitor module (BTM is used to measure recirculation by thermodilution in dialysis. Numerous studies have confirmed its interest in the measuring of the vascular access flow. In this letter we describe a model to calculate cardiac output in dialysis by the BTM.
Green Input-Output Model for Power Company Theoretical & Application Analysis
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2001-01-01
Based on the theory of marginal opportunity cost, one kind of green input-output table and models of powercompany are put forward in this paper. For an appliable purpose, analysis of integrated planning, cost analysis, pricingof the power company are also given.
The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in Dutch regions: An input-output model
Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.
2013-01-01
Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model was constructed for multifunctional agriculture
The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in The Netherlands: A regional input-output model
Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.
2012-01-01
Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise and uniform definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model is constructed for multifunctional
From LCC to LCA Using a Hybrid Input Output Model – A Maritime Case Study
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjær, Louise Laumann; Pagoropoulos, Aris; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky;
2015-01-01
As companies try to embrace life cycle thinking, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) have proven to be powerful tools. In this paper, an Environmental Input-Output model is used for analysis as it enables an LCA using the same economic input data as LCC. This approach helps...
Characteristic operator functions for quantum input-plant-output models and coherent control
Gough, John E.
2015-01-01
We introduce the characteristic operator as the generalization of the usual concept of a transfer function of linear input-plant-output systems to arbitrary quantum nonlinear Markovian input-output models. This is intended as a tool in the characterization of quantum feedback control systems that fits in with the general theory of networks. The definition exploits the linearity of noise differentials in both the plant Heisenberg equations of motion and the differential form of the input-output relations. Mathematically, the characteristic operator is a matrix of dimension equal to the number of outputs times the number of inputs (which must coincide), but with entries that are operators of the plant system. In this sense, the characteristic operator retains details of the effective plant dynamical structure and is an essentially quantum object. We illustrate the relevance to model reduction and simplification definition by showing that the convergence of the characteristic operator in adiabatic elimination limit models requires the same conditions and assumptions appearing in the work on limit quantum stochastic differential theorems of Bouten and Silberfarb [Commun. Math. Phys. 283, 491-505 (2008)]. This approach also shows in a natural way that the limit coefficients of the quantum stochastic differential equations in adiabatic elimination problems arise algebraically as Schur complements and amounts to a model reduction where the fast degrees of freedom are decoupled from the slow ones and eliminated.
texreg: Conversion of Statistical Model Output in R to LATEX and HTML Tables
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philip Leifeld
2013-11-01
Full Text Available A recurrent task in applied statistics is the (mostly manual preparation of model output for inclusion in LATEX, Microsoft Word, or HTML documents usually with more than one model presented in a single table along with several goodness-of-fit statistics. However, statistical models in R have diverse object structures and summary methods, which makes this process cumbersome. This article first develops a set of guidelines for converting statistical model output to LATEX and HTML tables, then assesses to what extent existing packages meet these requirements, and finally presents the texreg package as a solution that meets all of the criteria set out in the beginning. After providing various usage examples, a blueprint for writing custom model extensions is proposed.
Modelling the widespread effects of TOC1 signalling on the plant circadian clock and its outputs.
Pokhilko, Alexandra; Mas, Paloma; Millar, Andrew J
2013-03-19
24-hour biological clocks are intimately connected to the cellular signalling network, which complicates the analysis of clock mechanisms. The transcriptional regulator TOC1 (TIMING OF CAB EXPRESSION 1) is a founding component of the gene circuit in the plant circadian clock. Recent results show that TOC1 suppresses transcription of multiple target genes within the clock circuit, far beyond its previously-described regulation of the morning transcription factors LHY (LATE ELONGATED HYPOCOTYL) and CCA1 (CIRCADIAN CLOCK ASSOCIATED 1). It is unclear how this pervasive effect of TOC1 affects the dynamics of the clock and its outputs. TOC1 also appears to function in a nested feedback loop that includes signalling by the plant hormone Abscisic Acid (ABA), which is upregulated by abiotic stresses, such as drought. ABA treatments both alter TOC1 levels and affect the clock's timing behaviour. Conversely, the clock rhythmically modulates physiological processes induced by ABA, such as the closing of stomata in the leaf epidermis. In order to understand the dynamics of the clock and its outputs under changing environmental conditions, the reciprocal interactions between the clock and other signalling pathways must be integrated. We extended the mathematical model of the plant clock gene circuit by incorporating the repression of multiple clock genes by TOC1, observed experimentally. The revised model more accurately matches the data on the clock's molecular profiles and timing behaviour, explaining the clock's responses in TOC1 over-expression and toc1 mutant plants. A simplified representation of ABA signalling allowed us to investigate the interactions of ABA and circadian pathways. Increased ABA levels lengthen the free-running period of the clock, consistent with the experimental data. Adding stomatal closure to the model, as a key ABA- and clock-regulated downstream process allowed to describe TOC1 effects on the rhythmic gating of stomatal closure. The integrated
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Olav Slupphaug
2001-01-01
Full Text Available We present a mathematical programming approach to robust control of nonlinear systems with uncertain, possibly time-varying, parameters. The uncertain system is given by different local affine parameter dependent models in different parts of the state space. It is shown how this representation can be obtained from a nonlinear uncertain system by solving a set of continuous linear semi-infinite programming problems, and how each of these problems can be solved as a (finite series of ordinary linear programs. Additionally, the system representation includes control- and state constraints. The controller design method is derived from Lyapunov stability arguments and utilizes an affine parameter dependent quadratic Lyapunov function. The controller has a piecewise affine output feedback structure, and the design amounts to finding a feasible solution to a set of linear matrix inequalities combined with one spectral radius constraint on the product of two positive definite matrices. A local solution approach to this nonconvex feasibility problem is proposed. Complexity of the design method and some special cases such as state- feedback are discussed. Finally, an application of the results is given by proposing an on-line computationally feasible algorithm for constrained nonlinear state- feedback model predictive control with robust stability.
Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.
Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto
2017-01-01
Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sie Long Kek
2015-01-01
Full Text Available A computational approach is proposed for solving the discrete time nonlinear stochastic optimal control problem. Our aim is to obtain the optimal output solution of the original optimal control problem through solving the simplified model-based optimal control problem iteratively. In our approach, the adjusted parameters are introduced into the model used such that the differences between the real system and the model used can be computed. Particularly, system optimization and parameter estimation are integrated interactively. On the other hand, the output is measured from the real plant and is fed back into the parameter estimation problem to establish a matching scheme. During the calculation procedure, the iterative solution is updated in order to approximate the true optimal solution of the original optimal control problem despite model-reality differences. For illustration, a wastewater treatment problem is studied and the results show the efficiency of the approach proposed.
Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants
Almeida, Marcelo Pinho; Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar; Narvarte Fernández, Luis
2015-01-01
In this paper, a methodology using a nonparametric model is used to forecast AC power output of PV plants using as inputs several forecasts of meteorological variables from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and actual AC power measurements of PV plants. The methodology was built upon the R environment and uses Quantile Regression Forests as machine learning tool to forecast the AC power with a confidence interval. Real data from five PV plants was used to validate the methodology, an...
Progressive IRP Models for Power Resources Including EPP
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yiping Zhu
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In the view of optimizing regional power supply and demand, the paper makes effective planning scheduling of supply and demand side resources including energy efficiency power plant (EPP, to achieve the target of benefit, cost, and environmental constraints. In order to highlight the characteristics of different supply and demand resources in economic, environmental, and carbon constraints, three planning models with progressive constraints are constructed. Results of three models by the same example show that the best solutions to different models are different. The planning model including EPP has obvious advantages considering pollutant and carbon emission constraints, which confirms the advantages of low cost and emissions of EPP. The construction of progressive IRP models for power resources considering EPP has a certain reference value for guiding the planning and layout of EPP within other power resources and achieving cost and environmental objectives.
The case for NetCDF as a groundwater model output format using R: Example using USGS MODFLOW
Coulibaly, K. M.; Barnes, M.; Barnes, D.
2011-12-01
The USGS MODFLOW code has become the most widely used groundwater flow code throughout the world since its release in 1989. Because MODFLOW is a plain FORTRAN code with no graphical user interface (GUI) or visualization capabilities, model results visualization and analysis is usually done with commercial or open-source packages, and self-made FORTRAN snippets. The output format of MODFLOW is a FORTRAN binary which may vary depending on compilers and platforms. NetCDF, on the other hand, is a standardized, sharable and compact format which can be read and visualized with numerous free and commercial packages including R. It is also possible to embed useful geospatial information like coordinates, projection and grid discretization in the NetCDF which are absent in the FORTRAN binary. Using NetCDF as a standard model output format would allow modelers and non-modelers to easily share, visualize and plot model results using readily available software (R, ArcGIS, MS Excel, Paraview, GRASS GIS, SAGA GIS...etc). NetCDF is a particularly good format for storing large, multidimensional datasets. Many NetCDF tools were designed for the climate community, whose datasets are often orders of magnitude larger than datasets typically used in groundwater modeling. In this study R was used to generate a NetCDF file from a MODFLOW binary output and example analyses and visualizations were implemented. R has extensive statistical and plotting capabilities which are available to the user once MODFLOW outputs are available in NetCDF format.
Western Monarch and Milkweed Habitat Suitability Modeling Project- MaxEnt Model Outputs
US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Products include relative habitat suitability models of five milkweed species thought to be important to western monarchs that enough data points to allow for...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne
1999-01-01
instabilities prevent the practical use of such a system model for more than one input/output combination and for other magnitudes of refrigerating capacities.A higher numerical robustness of system models can be achieved by making a model for the refrigeration cycle the core of the system model and by using...... variables with narrow definition intervals for the exchange of information between the cycle model and the component models.The advantages of the cycle-oriented method are illustrated by an example showing the refrigeration cycle similarities between two very different refrigeration systems.......Mathematical models of refrigeration systems are often based on a coupling of component models forming a “closed loop” type of system model. In these models the coupling structure of the component models represents the actual flow path of refrigerant in the system. Very often numerical...
Linear and quadratic models of point process systems: contributions of patterned input to output.
Lindsay, K A; Rosenberg, J R
2012-08-01
In the 1880's Volterra characterised a nonlinear system using a functional series connecting continuous input and continuous output. Norbert Wiener, in the 1940's, circumvented problems associated with the application of Volterra series to physical problems by deriving from it a new series of terms that are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Gaussian processes. Subsequently, Brillinger, in the 1970's, introduced a point-process analogue of Volterra's series connecting point-process inputs to the instantaneous rate of point-process output. We derive here a new series from this analogue in which its terms are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Poisson processes. This new series expresses how patterned input in a spike train, represented by third-order cross-cumulants, is converted into the instantaneous rate of an output point-process. Given experimental records of suitable duration, the contribution of arbitrary patterned input to an output process can, in principle, be determined. Solutions for linear and quadratic point-process models with one and two inputs and a single output are investigated. Our theoretical results are applied to isolated muscle spindle data in which the spike trains from the primary and secondary endings from the same muscle spindle are recorded in response to stimulation of one and then two static fusimotor axons in the absence and presence of a random length change imposed on the parent muscle. For a fixed mean rate of input spikes, the analysis of the experimental data makes explicit which patterns of two input spikes contribute to an output spike.
Modeling heart rate variability including the effect of sleep stages
Soliński, Mateusz; Gierałtowski, Jan; Żebrowski, Jan
2016-02-01
We propose a model for heart rate variability (HRV) of a healthy individual during sleep with the assumption that the heart rate variability is predominantly a random process. Autonomic nervous system activity has different properties during different sleep stages, and this affects many physiological systems including the cardiovascular system. Different properties of HRV can be observed during each particular sleep stage. We believe that taking into account the sleep architecture is crucial for modeling the human nighttime HRV. The stochastic model of HRV introduced by Kantelhardt et al. was used as the initial starting point. We studied the statistical properties of sleep in healthy adults, analyzing 30 polysomnographic recordings, which provided realistic information about sleep architecture. Next, we generated synthetic hypnograms and included them in the modeling of nighttime RR interval series. The results of standard HRV linear analysis and of nonlinear analysis (Shannon entropy, Poincaré plots, and multiscale multifractal analysis) show that—in comparison with real data—the HRV signals obtained from our model have very similar properties, in particular including the multifractal characteristics at different time scales. The model described in this paper is discussed in the context of normal sleep. However, its construction is such that it should allow to model heart rate variability in sleep disorders. This possibility is briefly discussed.
Application of a Linear Input/Output Model to Tankless Water Heaters
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Butcher T.; Schoenbauer, B.
2011-12-31
In this study, the applicability of a linear input/output model to gas-fired, tankless water heaters has been evaluated. This simple model assumes that the relationship between input and output, averaged over both active draw and idle periods, is linear. This approach is being applied to boilers in other studies and offers the potential to make a small number of simple measurements to obtain the model parameters. These parameters can then be used to predict performance under complex load patterns. Both condensing and non-condensing water heaters have been tested under a very wide range of load conditions. It is shown that this approach can be used to reproduce performance metrics, such as the energy factor, and can be used to evaluate the impacts of alternative draw patterns and conditions.
Output-only identification of civil structures using nonlinear finite element model updating
Ebrahimian, Hamed; Astroza, Rodrigo; Conte, Joel P.
2015-03-01
This paper presents a novel approach for output-only nonlinear system identification of structures using data recorded during earthquake events. In this approach, state-of-the-art nonlinear structural FE modeling and analysis techniques are combined with Bayesian Inference method to estimate (i) time-invariant parameters governing the nonlinear hysteretic material constitutive models used in the FE model of the structure, and (ii) the time history of the earthquake ground motion. To validate the performance of the proposed framework, the simulated responses of a bridge pier to an earthquake ground motion is polluted with artificial output measurement noise and used to jointly estimate the unknown material parameters and the time history of the earthquake ground motion. This proof-of-concept example illustrates the successful performance of the proposed approach even in the presence of high measurement noise.
Multivariate Modelling of the Canary Islands Banana Output. The Role of Farmer Income Expectation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Concepción González-Concepción
2008-01-01
Full Text Available The EU is the worlds largest importer of bananas and the only major managed market in the international banana trade. Spain is the main banana producer within the European Union (EU, followed by France and Portugal. In all these countries the fruit is grown in overseas islands situated in tropical or sub-tropical areas and bananas are a pillar of the economic, social and environmental balance of these regions. Spanish production comes from the Canary Islands, an insular environment located in the Atlantic Ocean more than 1000 km south of the Iberian Peninsula and near the northwest coast of Africa. In the context of high production costs and strong competition from Latin American imports, the compensatory aid that local farmers have been receiving from the EU since 1993 has helped the archipelago to maintain its agricultural position while constituting a main support from an economic, social and landscaping standpoint. This research analyses the Canary Islands banana output evolution through the use of certain multivariate dynamic models that consider the influence of past production costs, past farmer income and future expectations, including a sensitivity analysis. We consider annual data time series on production, perceived prices and production costs for the period 1938-2002. Model predictions are contrasted using data for the period 2003-2006, thus spanning a wide period of time that includes key points such as the 1993 reform and the introduction of the 2006 reform. The empirical work highlights, as do all EU norms, the importance of maintaining adequate farmer income expectations to assure subsistence banana production.
Ecological input-output modeling for embodied resources and emissions in Chinese economy 2005
Chen, Z. M.; Chen, G. Q.; Zhou, J. B.; Jiang, M. M.; Chen, B.
2010-07-01
For the embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions in Chinese economy 2005, a biophysical balance modeling is carried out based on an extension of the economic input-output table into an ecological one integrating the economy with its various environmental driving forces. Included resource flows into the primary resource sectors and environmental emission flows from the primary emission sectors belong to seven categories as energy resources in terms of fossil fuels, hydropower and nuclear energy, biomass, and other sources; freshwater resources; greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2, CH4, and N2O; industrial wastes in terms of waste water, waste gas, and waste solid; exergy in terms of fossil fuel resources, biological resources, mineral resources, and environmental resources; solar emergy and cosmic emergy in terms of climate resources, soil, fossil fuels, and minerals. The resulted database for embodiment intensity and sectoral embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions is of essential implications in context of systems ecology and ecological economics in general and of global climate change in particular.
Analysis of inter-variable relations in regional climate model output
Wilcke, Renate; Chandler, Richard
2015-04-01
The topic of physical consistency and inter-variable relations of climate model output, in particular when applying statistical downscaling and bias correction to single variables, is widely discussed in the climate impact modelling and climate impact communities. Many situations require the consideration of several climate variables simultaneously, as a result of which it is also necessary to check that the inter-variable dependence structure is simulated realistically by the RCMs. Given that it is common practice to bias-adjust RCM outputs so as to improve their properties with respect to the distribution of variables taken individually, it is also of interest to determine whether inter-variable relationships are affected by empirical bias adjustment procedures such as quantile mapping, that are applied separately to each variable. A pragmatic reason to look at this is, if bias-adjusted outputs are to be used in impacts studies, it is necessary to check that the inter-variable relationships are realistic. A more fundamental reason is, that RCMs are physically based and, before bias correction, their outputs should therefore ideally be physically consistent. However, an empirical bias adjustment procedure has the potential to break the physical consistency, thereby removing one of the strongest justifications for using RCMs in the first place. Based on these considerations, the study aims to answer two questions. The first is to assess the inter-variable relationships in a suite of RCM outputs in more detail than has previously been attempted, by examining conditional probability densities instead of correlations. The second is to quantify the extent to which these conditional densities are distorted by an empirical bias adjustment procedure. The results can be used both to evaluate the ability of current RCMs (bias-adjusted or not) to provide useful information for climate change impact assessments; and also to determine the viability of quantile mapping as a
A hydrodynamic model for granular material flows including segregation effects
Gilberg, Dominik; Klar, Axel; Steiner, Konrad
2017-06-01
The simulation of granular flows including segregation effects in large industrial processes using particle methods is accurate, but very time-consuming. To overcome the long computation times a macroscopic model is a natural choice. Therefore, we couple a mixture theory based segregation model to a hydrodynamic model of Navier-Stokes-type, describing the flow behavior of the granular material. The granular flow model is a hybrid model derived from kinetic theory and a soil mechanical approach to cover the regime of fast dilute flow, as well as slow dense flow, where the density of the granular material is close to the maximum packing density. Originally, the segregation model has been formulated by Thornton and Gray for idealized avalanches. It is modified and adapted to be in the preferred form for the coupling. In the final coupled model the segregation process depends on the local state of the granular system. On the other hand, the granular system changes as differently mixed regions of the granular material differ i.e. in the packing density. For the modeling process the focus lies on dry granular material flows of two particle types differing only in size but can be easily extended to arbitrary granular mixtures of different particle size and density. To solve the coupled system a finite volume approach is used. To test the model the rotational mixing of small and large particles in a tumbler is simulated.
Synaptic channel model including effects of spike width variation
2015-01-01
Synaptic Channel Model Including Effects of Spike Width Variation Hamideh Ramezani Next-generation and Wireless Communications Laboratory (NWCL) Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering Koc University, Istanbul, Turkey Ozgur B. Akan Next-generation and Wireless Communications Laboratory (NWCL) Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering Koc University, Istanbul, Turkey ABSTRACT An accu...
A sonic boom propagation model including mean flow atmospheric effects
Salamone, Joe; Sparrow, Victor W.
2012-09-01
This paper presents a time domain formulation of nonlinear lossy propagation in onedimension that also includes the effects of non-collinear mean flow in the acoustic medium. The model equation utilized is an augmented Burgers equation that includes the effects of nonlinearity, geometric spreading, atmospheric stratification, and also absorption and dispersion due to thermoviscous and molecular relaxation effects. All elements of the propagation are implemented in the time domain and the effects of non-collinear mean flow are accounted for in each term of the model equation. Previous authors have presented methods limited to showing the effects of wind on ray tracing and/or using an effective speed of sound in their model equation. The present work includes the effects of mean flow for all terms included in the augmented Burgers equation with all of the calculations performed in the time-domain. The capability to include the effects of mean flow in the acoustic medium allows one to make predictions more representative of real-world atmospheric conditions. Examples are presented for nonlinear propagation of N-waves and shaped sonic booms. [Work supported by Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation.
Minimal state space realisation of continuous-time linear time-variant input-output models
Goos, J.; Pintelon, R.
2016-04-01
In the linear time-invariant (LTI) framework, the transformation from an input-output equation into state space representation is well understood. Several canonical forms exist that realise the same dynamic behaviour. If the coefficients become time-varying however, the LTI transformation no longer holds. We prove by induction that there exists a closed-form expression for the observability canonical state space model, using binomial coefficients.
Input-to-output transformation in a model of the rat hippocampal CA1 network
Olypher, Andrey V; Lytton, William W; Prinz, Astrid A.
2012-01-01
Here we use computational modeling to gain new insights into the transformation of inputs in hippocampal field CA1. We considered input-output transformation in CA1 principal cells of the rat hippocampus, with activity synchronized by population gamma oscillations. Prior experiments have shown that such synchronization is especially strong for cells within one millimeter of each other. We therefore simulated a one-millimeter patch of CA1 with 23,500 principal cells. We used morphologically an...
The Canadian Defence Input-Output Model DIO Version 4.41
2011-09-01
Output models, for instance to study the regional benefits of different large procure- ment programmes, the data censorship limitation would...excluding potato chips and nuts 113 0960 Cocoa and chocolate 114 0979 Nuts DRDC CORA TM 2011-147 31 Index Code Commodity name 115 0989 Chocolate...Private hospital services 631 5631 Private residential care facilities 632 5632 Child care, outside the home 633 5633 Other health and social services 634
Multi-output ANN Model for Prediction of Seven Meteorological Parameters in a Weather Station
Raza, Khalid; Jothiprakash, V.
2014-12-01
The meteorological parameters plays a vital role for determining various water demand in the water resource systems, planning, management and operation. Thus, accurate prediction of meteorological variables at different spatial and temporal intervals is the key requirement. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the most widely used data driven modelling techniques with lots of good features like, easy applications, high accuracy in prediction and to predict the multi-output complex non-linear relationships. In this paper, a Multi-input Multi-output (MIMO) ANN model has been developed and applied to predict seven important meteorological parameters, such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and evaporation concurrently. Several types of ANN, such as multilayer perceptron, generalized feedforward neural network, radial basis function and recurrent neural network with multi hidden layer and varying number of neurons at the hidden layer, has been developed, trained, validated and tested. From the results, it is found that the recurrent MIMO-ANN having 28 neurons in a single hidden layer, trained using hyperbolic tangent transfer function with a learning rate of 0.3 and momentum factor of 0.7 performed well over the other types of MIMO-ANN models. The MIMO ANN model performed well for all parameters with higher correlation and other performance indicators except for sunshine hours. Due to erratic nature, the importance of each of the input over the output through sensitivity analysis indicated that relative humidity has highest influence while others have equal influence over the output.
Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H M; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; Hampson, Robert E; Deadwyler, Sam A; Berger, Theodore W
2007-01-01
Multiple-input multiple-output nonlinear dynamic model of spike train to spike train transformations was previously formulated for hippocampal-cortical prostheses. This paper further described the statistical methods of selecting significant inputs (self-terms) and interactions between inputs (cross-terms) of this Volterra kernel-based model. In our approach, model structure was determined by progressively adding self-terms and cross-terms using a forward stepwise model selection technique. Model coefficients were then pruned based on Wald test. Results showed that the reduced kernel models, which contained much fewer coefficients than the full Volterra kernel model, gave good fits to the novel data. These models could be used to analyze the functional interactions between neurons during behavior.
Regionalisation of statistical model outputs creating gridded data sets for Germany
Höpp, Simona Andrea; Rauthe, Monika; Deutschländer, Thomas
2016-04-01
The goal of the German research program ReKliEs-De (regional climate projection ensembles for Germany, http://.reklies.hlug.de) is to distribute robust information about the range and the extremes of future climate for Germany and its neighbouring river catchment areas. This joint research project is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and was initiated by the German Federal States. The Project results are meant to support the development of adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of future climate change. The aim of our part of the project is to adapt and transfer the regionalisation methods of the gridded hydrological data set (HYRAS) from daily station data to the station based statistical regional climate model output of WETTREG (regionalisation method based on weather patterns). The WETTREG model output covers the period of 1951 to 2100 with a daily temporal resolution. For this, we generate a gridded data set of the WETTREG output for precipitation, air temperature and relative humidity with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km x 12.5 km, which is common for regional climate models. Thus, this regionalisation allows comparing statistical to dynamical climate model outputs. The HYRAS data set was developed by the German Meteorological Service within the German research program KLIWAS (www.kliwas.de) and consists of daily gridded data for Germany and its neighbouring river catchment areas. It has a spatial resolution of 5 km x 5 km for the entire domain for the hydro-meteorological elements precipitation, air temperature and relative humidity and covers the period of 1951 to 2006. After conservative remapping the HYRAS data set is also convenient for the validation of climate models. The presentation will consist of two parts to present the actual state of the adaptation of the HYRAS regionalisation methods to the statistical regional climate model WETTREG: First, an overview of the HYRAS data set and the regionalisation
Space-time data fusion under error in computer model output: an application to modeling air quality.
Berrocal, Veronica J; Gelfand, Alan E; Holland, David M
2012-09-01
We provide methods that can be used to obtain more accurate environmental exposure assessment. In particular, we propose two modeling approaches to combine monitoring data at point level with numerical model output at grid cell level, yielding improved prediction of ambient exposure at point level. Extending our earlier downscaler model (Berrocal, V. J., Gelfand, A. E., and Holland, D. M. (2010b). A spatio-temporal downscaler for outputs from numerical models. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 15, 176-197), these new models are intended to address two potential concerns with the model output. One recognizes that there may be useful information in the outputs for grid cells that are neighbors of the one in which the location lies. The second acknowledges potential spatial misalignment between a station and its putatively associated grid cell. The first model is a Gaussian Markov random field smoothed downscaler that relates monitoring station data and computer model output via the introduction of a latent Gaussian Markov random field linked to both sources of data. The second model is a smoothed downscaler with spatially varying random weights defined through a latent Gaussian process and an exponential kernel function, that yields, at each site, a new variable on which the monitoring station data is regressed with a spatial linear model. We applied both methods to daily ozone concentration data for the Eastern US during the summer months of June, July and August 2001, obtaining, respectively, a 5% and a 15% predictive gain in overall predictive mean square error over our earlier downscaler model (Berrocal et al., 2010b). Perhaps more importantly, the predictive gain is greater at hold-out sites that are far from monitoring sites.
Robert, Katleen; Jones, Daniel O. B.; Roberts, J. Murray; Huvenne, Veerle A. I.
2016-07-01
In the deep sea, biological data are often sparse; hence models capturing relationships between observed fauna and environmental variables (acquired via acoustic mapping techniques) are often used to produce full coverage species assemblage maps. Many statistical modelling techniques are being developed, but there remains a need to determine the most appropriate mapping techniques. Predictive habitat modelling approaches (redundancy analysis, maximum entropy and random forest) were applied to a heterogeneous section of seabed on Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic, for which landscape indices describing the spatial arrangement of habitat patches were calculated. The predictive maps were based on remotely operated vehicle (ROV) imagery transects high-resolution autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) sidescan backscatter maps. Area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy indicated similar performances for the three models tested, but performance varied by species assemblage, with the transitional species assemblage showing the weakest predictive performances. Spatial predictions of habitat suitability differed between statistical approaches, but niche similarity metrics showed redundancy analysis and random forest predictions to be most similar. As one statistical technique could not be found to outperform the others when all assemblages were considered, ensemble mapping techniques, where the outputs of many models are combined, were applied. They showed higher accuracy than any single model. Different statistical approaches for predictive habitat modelling possess varied strengths and weaknesses and by examining the outputs of a range of modelling techniques and their differences, more robust predictions, with better described variation and areas of uncertainties, can be achieved. As improvements to prediction outputs can be achieved without additional costly data collection, ensemble mapping approaches have clear value for spatial management.
A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rachel D. Cavanagh
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer, there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.
An Optimized Grey Dynamic Model for Forecasting the Output of High-Tech Industry in China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zheng-Xin Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The grey dynamic model by convolution integral with the first-order derivative of the 1-AGO data and n series related, abbreviated as GDMC(1,n, performs well in modelling and forecasting of a grey system. To improve the modelling accuracy of GDMC(1,n, n interpolation coefficients (taken as unknown parameters are introduced into the background values of the n variables. The parameters optimization is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem and is solved collectively using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The optimized result has been verified by a case study of the economic output of high-tech industry in China. Comparisons of the obtained modelling results from the optimized GDMC(1,n model with the traditional one demonstrate that the optimal algorithm is a good alternative for parameters optimization of the GDMC(1,n model. The modelling results can assist the government in developing future policies regarding high-tech industry management.
Modeling of the dynamics of wind to power conversion including high wind speed behavior
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Bjerge, Martin Huus; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio
2016-01-01
of power system studies, but the idea of the proposed wind turbine model is to include the main dynamic effects in order to have a better representation of the fluctuations in the output power and of the fast power ramping especially because of high wind speed shutdowns of the wind turbine. The high wind......This paper proposes and validates an efficient, generic and computationally simple dynamic model for the conversion of the wind speed at hub height into the electrical power by a wind turbine. This proposed wind turbine model was developed as a first step to simulate wind power time series...... for power system studies. This paper focuses on describing and validating the single wind turbine model, and is therefore neither describing wind speed modeling nor aggregation of contributions from a whole wind farm or a power system area. The state-of-the-art is to use static power curves for the purpose...
Usefulness of non-linear input-output models for economic impact analyses in tourism and recreation
Klijs, J.; Peerlings, J.H.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.
2015-01-01
In tourism and recreation management it is still common practice to apply traditional input–output (IO) economic impact models, despite their well-known limitations. In this study the authors analyse the usefulness of applying a non-linear input–output (NLIO) model, in which price-induced input subs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo
2015-01-01
) different levels of network congestion. The choice of the probability distributions shows a low impact on the model output uncertainty, quantified in terms of coefficient of variation. Instead, with respect to the choice of different assignment algorithms, the link flow uncertainty, expressed in terms...... of coefficient of variation, resulting from stochastic user equilibrium and user equilibrium is, respectively, of 0.425 and 0.468. Finally, network congestion does not show a high effect on model output uncertainty at the network level. However, the final uncertainty of links with higher volume/capacity ratio...
Comparing Simulation Output Accuracy of Discrete Event and Agent Based Models: A Quantitive Approach
Majid, Mazlina Abdul; Siebers, Peer-Olaf
2010-01-01
In our research we investigate the output accuracy of discrete event simulation models and agent based simulation models when studying human centric complex systems. In this paper we focus on human reactive behaviour as it is possible in both modelling approaches to implement human reactive behaviour in the model by using standard methods. As a case study we have chosen the retail sector, and here in particular the operations of the fitting room in the women wear department of a large UK department store. In our case study we looked at ways of determining the efficiency of implementing new management policies for the fitting room operation through modelling the reactive behaviour of staff and customers of the department. First, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our models to the performance of the real system. This experiment also allowed us to establish differences in output accuracy between the two modelling methids. In a second step a multi-scenario experimen...
Möller, Marco; Obleitner, Friedrich; Reijmer, Carleen H; Pohjola, Veijo A; Głowacki, Piotr; Kohler, Jack
2016-05-27
Large-scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available over larger regions or for longer time periods. This study evaluates the extent to which it is possible to derive reliable region-wide glacier mass balance estimates, using coarse resolution (10 km) RCM output for model forcing. Our data cover the entire Svalbard archipelago over one decade. To calculate mass balance, we use an index-based model. Model parameters are not calibrated, but the RCM air temperature and precipitation fields are adjusted using in situ mass balance measurements as reference. We compare two different calibration methods: root mean square error minimization and regression optimization. The obtained air temperature shifts (+1.43°C versus +2.22°C) and precipitation scaling factors (1.23 versus 1.86) differ considerably between the two methods, which we attribute to inhomogeneities in the spatiotemporal distribution of the reference data. Our modeling suggests a mean annual climatic mass balance of -0.05 ± 0.40 m w.e. a(-1) for Svalbard over 2000-2011 and a mean equilibrium line altitude of 452 ± 200 m above sea level. We find that the limited spatial resolution of the RCM forcing with respect to real surface topography and the usage of spatially homogeneous RCM output adjustments and mass balance model parameters are responsible for much of the modeling uncertainty. Sensitivity of the results to model parameter uncertainty is comparably small and of minor importance.
A MULTIYEAR LAGS INPUT-HOLDING-OUTPUT MODEL ON EDUCATION WITH EXCLUDING IDLE CAPITAL
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Xue FU; Xikang CHEN
2009-01-01
This paper develops a multi-year lag Input-Holding-Output (I-H-O) Model on education with exclusion of the idle capital to address the reasonable education structure in support of a sus-tainable development strategy in China. First, the model considers the multiyear lag of human capital because the lag time of human capital is even longer and more important than that of fixed capital. Second, it considers the idle capital resulting from the output decline in education, for example, stu-dent decrease in primary school. The new generalized Leonitief dynamic inverse is deduced to obtain a positive solution on education when output declines as well as expands. After compiling the 2000 I-H-O table on education, the authors adopt modifications-by-step method to treat nonlinear coefficients, and calculate education scale, the requirement of human capital, and education expenditure from 2005 to 2020. It is found that structural imbalance of human capital is a serious problem for Chinese economic development.
Modelling health and output at business cycle horizons for the USA.
Narayan, Paresh Kumar
2010-07-01
In this paper we employ a theoretical framework - a simple macro model augmented with health - that draws guidance from the Keynesian view of business cycles to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in health expenditure and output at business cycle horizons for the USA. The variance decomposition analysis of shocks reveals that at business cycle horizons permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in output, while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in health expenditures. We undertake a shock decomposition analysis for private health expenditures versus public health expenditures and interestingly find that while transitory shocks are more important for private sector expenditures, permanent shocks dominate public health expenditures. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A model of Barchan dunes including lateral shear stress.
Schwämmle, V; Herrmann, H J
2005-01-01
Barchan dunes are found where sand availability is low and wind direction quite constant. The two dimensional shear stress of the wind field and the sand movement by saltation and avalanches over a barchan dune are simulated. The model with one dimensional shear stress is extended including surface diffusion and lateral shear stress. The resulting final shape is compared to the results of the model with a one dimensional shear stress and confirmed by comparison to measurements. We found agreement and improvements with respect to the model with one dimensional shear stress. Additionally, a characteristic edge at the center of the windward side is discovered which is also observed for big barchans. Diffusion effects reduce this effect for small dunes.
Constitution of a catchment virtual observatory for sharing flow and transport models outputs
Thomas, Zahra; Rousseau-Gueutin, Pauline; Kolbe, Tamara; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Marçais, Jean; Peiffer, Stefan; Frei, Sven; Bishop, Kevin; Pichelin, Pascal; Pinay, Gilles; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald
2016-12-01
Predicting hydrological catchment behavior based on measurable (and preferably widely available) catchment characteristics has been one of the main goals of hydrological modelling. Residence time distributions provide synoptic information about catchment functioning and can be useful metrics to predict their behaviors. Moreover, residence time distributions highlight a wide range of characteristic scales (spatial and temporal) and mixing processes. However, catchment-specific heterogeneity means that the link between residence time distributions and catchment characteristics is complex. Investigating this link for a wide range of catchments could reveal the role of topography, geology, land-use, climate and other factors in controlling catchment hydrology. Meaningful comparison is often challenging given the diversity of data and model structures and formats. To address this need, we are introducing a new virtual platform called Catchment virtual Observatory for Sharing flow and transport models outputs (COnSOrT). The goal of COnSOrT is to promote catchment intercomparison by sharing calibrated model outputs. Compiling commensurable results in COnSOrT will help evaluate model performance, quantify inter-catchment controls on hydrology, and identify research gaps and priorities in catchment science. Researchers interested in sharing or using calibrated model results are invited to participate in the virtual observatory. Participants may test post-processing methods on a wide range of catchment environments to evaluate the generality of their findings.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bøvith, Thomas; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hansen, Lars Kai
2006-01-01
A method for detecting clutter in weather radar images by information fusion is presented. Radar data, satellite images, and output from a numerical weather prediction model are combined and the radar echoes are classified using supervised classification. The presented method uses indirect...... information on precipitation in the atmosphere from Meteosat-8 multispectral images and near-surface temperature estimates from the DMI-HIRLAM-S05 numerical weather prediction model. Alternatively, an operational nowcasting product called 'Precipitating Clouds' based on Meteosat-8 input is used. A scale...
A non-endoreversible Otto cycle model: improving power output and efficiency
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Angulo-Brown, F. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Mexico City (Mexico). Escuela Superior de Fisica y Matematicas; Rocha-Martinez, J.A.; Navarrete-Gonzalez, T.D. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Azcapotzalco, Mexico City (Mexico). Dept. de Ciencias Basicas
1996-01-14
We propose a finite-time thermodynamics model for an Otto thermal cycle. Our model considers global losses in a simplified way lumped into a friction-like term, and takes into account the departure from an endoreversible regime through a parameter (R) arising from the Clausius inequality. Our numerical results suggest that the cycle`s power output and efficiency are very sensitive to that parameter. We find that R is the ratio of the constant-volume heat capacities of the reactants and products in the combustion reaction occurring inside the working fluid. Our results have implications in the search for new fuels for internal combustion engines. (author)
Zhou, S. Y.; Chen, H.; Li, S. C.
2010-10-01
The embodiment of natural resources and greenhouse gas emissions for the urban economy of Beijing economy 2002 by a physical balance modeling is carried out based on an extension of the economic input-output table into an ecological one integrating the economy with its various environmental driving forces. Included resources and greenhouse gas emissions belong to six categories as energy resources in terms of primary energy and secondary energy; water resource; emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O; exergy in terms of energy sources, biological resources and minerals; and solar emergy and cosmic emergy in terms of climate resources, soil, energy sources, and minerals.
Vidal-Codina, F.; Nguyen, N. C.; Giles, M. B.; Peraire, J.
2015-09-01
We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basis approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.
Input-output modeling for urban energy consumption in Beijing: dynamics and comparison.
Zhang, Lixiao; Hu, Qiuhong; Zhang, Fan
2014-01-01
Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect) energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vidal-Codina, F., E-mail: fvidal@mit.edu [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Nguyen, N.C., E-mail: cuongng@mit.edu [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Giles, M.B., E-mail: mike.giles@maths.ox.ac.uk [Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (United Kingdom); Peraire, J., E-mail: peraire@mit.edu [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)
2015-09-15
We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basis approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.
Input-output modeling for urban energy consumption in Beijing: dynamics and comparison.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lixiao Zhang
Full Text Available Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making.
Goldilocks Models of Higher-Dimensional Inflation (including modulus stabilization)
Burgess, C P; Hayman, Peter; Patil, Subodh P
2016-01-01
We explore the mechanics of inflation in simplified extra-dimensional models involving an inflaton interacting with the Einstein-Maxwell system in two extra dimensions. The models are Goldilocks-like in that they are just complicated enough to include a mechanism to stabilize the extra-dimensional size, yet simple enough to solve the full 6D field equations using basic tools. The solutions are not limited to the effective 4D regime with H m_KK, but when they do standard 4D fluctuation calculations need not apply. When in a 4D regime the solutions predict eta ~ 0 hence n_s ~ 0.96 and r ~ 0.096 and so are ruled out if tensor modes remain unseen. Analysis of general parameters is difficult without a full 6D fluctuation calculation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Qiu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the problem of modeling and output feedback controller design for a class of discrete-time networked control systems (NCSs with time delays and packet dropouts. A Markovian jumping method is proposed to deal with random time delays and packet dropouts. Different from the previous studies on the issue, the characteristics of networked communication delays and packet dropouts can be truly reflected by the unified model; namely, both sensor-to-controller (S-C and controller-to-actuator (C-A time delays, and packet dropouts are modeled and their history behavior is described by multiple Markov chains. The resulting closed-loop system is described by a new Markovian jump linear system (MJLS with Markov delays model. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI method, sufficient conditions of the stochastic stability and output feedback controller design method for NCSs with random time delays and packet dropouts are presented. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing input-output and computable general equilibrium models
Koks, Elco E.; Carrera, Lorenzo; Jonkeren, Olaf; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Husby, Trond G.; Thissen, Mark; Standardi, Gabriele; Mysiak, Jaroslav
2016-08-01
A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of them in combination with noneconomic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are born likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitate better decisions and policy making. Therefore, this study analyses the economic consequences for a specific case study, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.
Comparison of Firn-Model Outputs for Steady-State Climates
Yoon, M.; Waddington, E. D.; Stevens, C.; Vo, H.
2014-12-01
With few direct measurements of firn density profiles, pore close-off depth and delta age modeling can further aid the study of polar firn. Model estimates of firn properties can help in planning field campaigns and collecting ice cores. No universally accepted firn-evolution model exists, and modeled firn density profiles can be sensitive to the form of the density equation that is used. We can characterize the subtle differences between firn-evolution models by creating comparisons among a suite of published models. We created a table of temperatures and accumulation-rate values spanning the range of climatic conditions in the dry-snow zone in Greenland and Antarctica. Then, we ran each of seven firn-compaction models for each pair of climate values in the table, producing values of close-off depth, depth-integrated porosity, and delta age for each model. Using gridded temperature and accumulation-rate data from Greenland and Antarctica, we interpolated each gridded pair in our model-output tables to create maps of DIP, COD, and Δage for Greenland and Antarctica for each model. We also computed the mean and variance among the models for each property. By identifying the areas of greatest variance in our parameter space, we can better quantify our confidence in the physical descriptions of firn densification in the models.
Kinetic models of gene expression including non-coding RNAs
Zhdanov, Vladimir P.
2011-03-01
In cells, genes are transcribed into mRNAs, and the latter are translated into proteins. Due to the feedbacks between these processes, the kinetics of gene expression may be complex even in the simplest genetic networks. The corresponding models have already been reviewed in the literature. A new avenue in this field is related to the recognition that the conventional scenario of gene expression is fully applicable only to prokaryotes whose genomes consist of tightly packed protein-coding sequences. In eukaryotic cells, in contrast, such sequences are relatively rare, and the rest of the genome includes numerous transcript units representing non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs). During the past decade, it has become clear that such RNAs play a crucial role in gene expression and accordingly influence a multitude of cellular processes both in the normal state and during diseases. The numerous biological functions of ncRNAs are based primarily on their abilities to silence genes via pairing with a target mRNA and subsequently preventing its translation or facilitating degradation of the mRNA-ncRNA complex. Many other abilities of ncRNAs have been discovered as well. Our review is focused on the available kinetic models describing the mRNA, ncRNA and protein interplay. In particular, we systematically present the simplest models without kinetic feedbacks, models containing feedbacks and predicting bistability and oscillations in simple genetic networks, and models describing the effect of ncRNAs on complex genetic networks. Mathematically, the presentation is based primarily on temporal mean-field kinetic equations. The stochastic and spatio-temporal effects are also briefly discussed.
Mudunuru, M K; Harp, D R; Guthrie, G D; Viswanathan, H S
2016-01-01
The goal of this paper is to assess the utility of Reduced-Order Models (ROMs) developed from 3D physics-based models for predicting transient thermal power output for an enhanced geothermal reservoir while explicitly accounting for uncertainties in the subsurface system and site-specific details. Numerical simulations are performed based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) of model inputs drawn from uniform probability distributions. Key sensitive parameters are identified from these simulations, which are fracture zone permeability, well/skin factor, bottom hole pressure, and injection flow rate. The inputs for ROMs are based on these key sensitive parameters. The ROMs are then used to evaluate the influence of subsurface attributes on thermal power production curves. The resulting ROMs are compared with field-data and the detailed physics-based numerical simulations. We propose three different ROMs with different levels of model parsimony, each describing key and essential features of the power production cu...
Baran, Sándor; Möller, Annette
2017-02-01
Forecast ensembles are typically employed to account for prediction uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models. However, ensembles often exhibit biases and dispersion errors, thus they require statistical post-processing to improve their predictive performance. Two popular univariate post-processing models are the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). In the last few years, increased interest has emerged in developing multivariate post-processing models, incorporating dependencies between weather quantities, such as for example a bivariate distribution for wind vectors or even a more general setting allowing to combine any types of weather variables. In line with a recently proposed approach to model temperature and wind speed jointly by a bivariate BMA model, this paper introduces an EMOS model for these weather quantities based on a bivariate truncated normal distribution. The bivariate EMOS model is applied to temperature and wind speed forecasts of the 8-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble and the 11-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and its predictive performance is compared to the performance of the bivariate BMA model and a multivariate Gaussian copula approach, post-processing the margins with univariate EMOS. While the predictive skills of the compared methods are similar, the bivariate EMOS model requires considerably lower computation times than the bivariate BMA method.
Progress Towards an LES Wall Model Including Unresolved Roughness
Craft, Kyle; Redman, Andrew; Aikens, Kurt
2015-11-01
Wall models used in large eddy simulations (LES) are often based on theories for hydraulically smooth walls. While this is reasonable for many applications, there are also many where the impact of surface roughness is important. A previously developed wall model has been used primarily for jet engine aeroacoustics. However, jet simulations have not accurately captured thick initial shear layers found in some experimental data. This may partly be due to nozzle wall roughness used in the experiments to promote turbulent boundary layers. As a result, the wall model is extended to include the effects of unresolved wall roughness through appropriate alterations to the log-law. The methodology is tested for incompressible flat plate boundary layers with different surface roughness. Correct trends are noted for the impact of surface roughness on the velocity profile. However, velocity deficit profiles and the Reynolds stresses do not collapse as well as expected. Possible reasons for the discrepancies as well as future work will be presented. This work used the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), which is supported by National Science Foundation grant number ACI-1053575. Computational resources on TACC Stampede were provided under XSEDE allocation ENG150001.
Coupling NLDAS Model Output with MODIS Products for Improved Spatial Evapotranspiration Estimates
Kim, J.; Hogue, T.
2008-12-01
Given the growing concern over regional water supplies in much of the arid west, the quantification of water use by urban and agricultural landscapes is critically important. Water lost through evapotranspiration (ET) typically can not be recaptured or recycled, increasing the need for accurate accounting of ET in regional water management and planning. In this study, we investigate a method to better capture the spatial characteristics of ET by coupling operational North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) outputs and a previously developed MODIS-based Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) product. The resultant product is higher resolution (1km) than the NLDAS model ET outputs (~12.5 km) and provides improved estimates within highly heterogeneous terrain and landscapes. We undertake this study in the Southern California region which provides an excellent case study for examining the developed product's ability to estimate vegetation dynamics over rapidly growing, and highly-irrigated, urban ecosystems. General trends in both products are similar; however the coupled MODIS-NLDAS ET product shows higher spatial variability, better capturing land surface heterogeneity than the NLDAS-based ET. Improved ET representation is especially obvious during the spring season, when precipitation is muted and evaporative flux is dominant. We also quantify seasonal landscape water demand over urban landscapes in several major counties (i.e. Los Angeles, San Diego and Riverside) using the MODIS-NLDAS ET model.
Jacquin, A. P.
2012-04-01
This study analyses the effect of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on the uncertainty bounds of a snowmelt runoff model's discharge estimates. Prediction uncertainty bounds are derived using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The model analysed is a conceptual watershed model operating at a monthly time step. The model divides the catchment into five elevation zones, where the fifth zone corresponds to the catchment glaciers. Precipitation amounts at each elevation zone i are estimated as the product between observed precipitation (at a single station within the catchment) and a precipitation factor FPi. Thus, these factors provide a simplified representation of the spatial variation of precipitation, specifically the shape of the functional relationship between precipitation and height. In the absence of information about appropriate values of the precipitation factors FPi, these are estimated through standard calibration procedures. The catchment case study is Aconcagua River at Chacabuquito, located in the Andean region of Central Chile. Monte Carlo samples of the model output are obtained by randomly varying the model parameters within their feasible ranges. In the first experiment, the precipitation factors FPi are considered unknown and thus included in the sampling process. The total number of unknown parameters in this case is 16. In the second experiment, precipitation factors FPi are estimated a priori, by means of a long term water balance between observed discharge at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration estimates and observed precipitation. In this case, the number of unknown parameters reduces to 11. The feasible ranges assigned to the precipitation factors in the first experiment are slightly wider than the range of fixed precipitation factors used in the second experiment. The mean squared error of the Box-Cox transformed discharge during the calibration period is used for the evaluation of the
Numerical Modeling of Electroacoustic Logging Including Joule Heating
Plyushchenkov, Boris D.; Nikitin, Anatoly A.; Turchaninov, Victor I.
It is well known that electromagnetic field excites acoustic wave in a porous elastic medium saturated with fluid electrolyte due to electrokinetic conversion effect. Pride's equations describing this process are written in isothermal approximation. Update of these equations, which allows to take influence of Joule heating on acoustic waves propagation into account, is proposed here. This update includes terms describing the initiation of additional acoustic waves excited by thermoelastic stresses and the heat conduction equation with right side defined by Joule heating. Results of numerical modeling of several problems of propagation of acoustic waves excited by an electric field source with and without consideration of Joule heating effect in their statements are presented. From these results, it follows that influence of Joule heating should be taken into account at the numerical simulation of electroacoustic logging and at the interpretation of its log data.
Fuzzy portfolio model with fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions
Tsaur, Ruey-Chyn
2015-02-01
In the finance market, a short-term investment strategy is usually applied in portfolio selection in order to reduce investment risk; however, the economy is uncertain and the investment period is short. Further, an investor has incomplete information for selecting a portfolio with crisp proportions for each chosen security. In this paper we present a new method of constructing fuzzy portfolio model for the parameters of fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions, based on possibilistic mean-standard deviation models. Furthermore, we consider both excess or shortage of investment in different economic periods by using fuzzy constraint for the sum of the fuzzy proportions, and we also refer to risks of securities investment and vagueness of incomplete information during the period of depression economics for the portfolio selection. Finally, we present a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem to illustrate the proposed model and a sensitivity analysis is realised based on the results.
Roy, Koushik; Bhattacharya, Bishakh; Ray-Chaudhuri, Samit
2015-08-01
The study proposes a set of four ARX model (autoregressive model with exogenous input) based damage sensitive features (DSFs) for structural damage detection and localization using the dynamic responses of structures, where the information regarding the input excitation may not be available. In the proposed framework, one of the output responses of a multi-degree-of-freedom system is assumed as the input and the rest are considered as the output. The features are based on ARX model coefficients, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test statistical distance, and the model residual error. At first, a mathematical formulation is provided to establish the relation between the change in ARX model coefficients and the normalized stiffness of a structure. KS test parameters are then described to show the sensitivity of statistical distance of ARX model residual error with the damage location. The efficiency of the proposed set of DSFs is evaluated by conducting numerical studies involving a shear building and a steel moment-resisting frame. To simulate the damage scenarios in these structures, stiffness degradation of different elements is considered. It is observed from this study that the proposed set of DSFs is good indicator for damage location even in the presence of damping, multiple damages, noise, and parametric uncertainties. The performance of these DSFs is compared with mode shape curvature-based approach for damage localization. An experimental study has also been conducted on a three-dimensional six-storey steel moment frame to understand the performance of these DSFs under real measurement conditions. It has been observed that the proposed set of DSFs can satisfactorily localize damage in the structure.
Finn, Tobias Sebastian; Ament, Felix
2016-04-01
The model output statistics (MOS) method is frequently used to downscale and improve numerical weather models for specific measurement sites. One of these is the "Wettermast Hamburg" (http://wettermast-hamburg.zmaw.de/) in the south-east of Hamburg. It is operated by the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg. The MOS approach was used to develop a not yet existing 2 metre temperature forecasting system for this site. The forecast system is based on the 0 UTC control run of the legacy "global ensemble forecast system". The multiple linear equations were calculated using a training period of 2 years (01.03.2012-28.02.2014), while the developed models were evaluated using the following year (01.03.2014-28.02.2015). During the development process it was found that a combination of forward and backward selection together with the "Bayesian information criterion", a warm-cold splitting and a five-fold cross-validation was the best automated method to minimize the risk of overfitting. To further reduce the risk, the number of predictors were limited to 6. Also the first 3 possible predictors were selected by hand. In comparison to the fully automated method, the error was not changed significantly through this restrictions for the evaluation period. The analysis of the importance of selected predictors shows that the global weather model has problems characterizing specific weather phenomena. Large model errors by misrepresenting the boundary layer were highlighted through the 10 metre wind speed, the surface temperature and the 1000 hPa temperature as frequently selected predictors. The final forecast system has a root-mean-square error minimum of 1.15 K for the initialization and a maximum 2.2 K at the 84 hour lead time. Compared to the direct model output this is a mean improvement of ˜ 22%. The main error reduction is achieved in the first 24 hours of the forecast, especially at the initialization (up to 45% error reduction).
Input-to-output transformation in a model of the rat hippocampal CA1 network.
Olypher, Andrey V; Lytton, William W; Prinz, Astrid A
2012-01-01
Here we use computational modeling to gain new insights into the transformation of inputs in hippocampal field CA1. We considered input-output transformation in CA1 principal cells of the rat hippocampus, with activity synchronized by population gamma oscillations. Prior experiments have shown that such synchronization is especially strong for cells within one millimeter of each other. We therefore simulated a one-millimeter ıt patch of CA1 with 23,500 principal cells. We used morphologically and biophysically detailed neuronal models, each with more than 1000 compartments and thousands of synaptic inputs. Inputs came from binary patterns of spiking neurons from field CA3 and entorhinal cortex (EC). On average, each presynaptic pattern initiated action potentials in the same number of CA1 principal cells in the patch. We considered pairs of similar and pairs of distinct patterns. In all the cases CA1 strongly separated input patterns. However, CA1 cells were considerably more sensitive to small alterations in EC patterns compared to CA3 patterns. Our results can be used for comparison of input-to-output transformations in normal and pathological hippocampal networks.
Multiregional input-output model for the evaluation of Spanish water flows.
Cazcarro, Ignacio; Duarte, Rosa; Sánchez Chóliz, Julio
2013-01-01
We construct a multiregional input-output model for Spain, in order to evaluate the pressures on the water resources, virtual water flows, and water footprints of the regions, and the water impact of trade relationships within Spain and abroad. The study is framed with those interregional input-output models constructed to study water flows and impacts of regions in China, Australia, Mexico, or the UK. To build our database, we reconcile regional IO tables, national and regional accountancy of Spain, trade and water data. Results show an important imbalance between origin of water resources and final destination, with significant water pressures in the South, Mediterranean, and some central regions. The most populated and dynamic regions of Madrid and Barcelona are important drivers of water consumption in Spain. Main virtual water exporters are the South and Central agrarian regions: Andalusia, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon, Aragon, and Extremadura, while the main virtual water importers are the industrialized regions of Madrid, Basque country, and the Mediterranean coast. The paper shows the different location of direct and indirect consumers of water in Spain and how the economic trade and consumption pattern of certain areas has significant impacts on the availability of water resources in other different and often drier regions.
Goldilocks models of higher-dimensional inflation (including modulus stabilization)
Burgess, C. P.; Enns, Jared J. H.; Hayman, Peter; Patil, Subodh P.
2016-08-01
We explore the mechanics of inflation within simplified extra-dimensional models involving an inflaton interacting with the Einstein-Maxwell system in two extra dimensions. The models are Goldilocks-like inasmuch as they are just complicated enough to include a mechanism to stabilize the extra-dimensional size (or modulus), yet simple enough to solve explicitly the full extra-dimensional field equations using only simple tools. The solutions are not restricted to the effective 4D regime with H ll mKK (the latter referring to the characteristic mass splitting of the Kaluza-Klein excitations) because the full extra-dimensional Einstein equations are solved. This allows an exploration of inflationary physics in a controlled calculational regime away from the usual four-dimensional lamp-post. The inclusion of modulus stabilization is important because experience with string models teaches that this is usually what makes models fail: stabilization energies easily dominate the shallow potentials required by slow roll and so open up directions to evolve that are steeper than those of the putative inflationary direction. We explore (numerically and analytically) three representative kinds of inflationary scenarios within this simple setup. In one the radion is trapped in an inflaton-dependent local minimum whose non-zero energy drives inflation. Inflation ends as this energy relaxes to zero when the inflaton finds its own minimum. The other two involve power-law scaling solutions during inflation. One of these is a dynamical attractor whose features are relatively insensitive to initial conditions but whose slow-roll parameters cannot be arbitrarily small; the other is not an attractor but can roll much more slowly, until eventually transitioning to the attractor. The scaling solutions can satisfy H > mKK, but when they do standard 4D fluctuation calculations need not apply. When in a 4D regime the solutions predict η simeq 0 and so r simeq 0.11 when ns simeq 0.96 and so
Devaluation and Output Growth in Palestine: Evidence from a CGE model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hakeem Abdel Ahmad Eltalla
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Whether exchange rate devaluation supports economic growth or not is an open question empirically. This paper analyzes the impacts of the devaluation on the Palestinian economy using a computable general equilibrium model. We investigate the effect of a 15% devaluation of the exchange rate on output growth of Palestine. By using latest data (a 2012 social accounting matrix for Palestine and CGE modeling, this paper finds that devaluation is contractionary in Palestine. A 15% devaluation of the exchange rate results on lower real gross domestic product, the simulation results show that GDP will decrease by 1.99 %. Import and export will decline by 20.61% and 52.67% respectably. Also, a 15 percent devaluation will reduce the level of private consumption by 6.31 % and inflation (CPI will increase by 4.7 from the base line.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH IIIÂ® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...
Ozturk, Tugba; Pelin Ceber, Zeynep; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent
2014-05-01
The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions that shall be affected most by the impacts of the future climate changes on temperature regime including changes in heat waves intensity and frequency, seasonal and interannual precipitation variability including changes in summer dryness and drought events, and hydrology and water resources. In this study, projected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and inter-annual variability over the Mediterranean region were simulated. For performing this aim, the future changes in annual and seasonal averages for the future period of 2070-2100 with respect to the period from 1970 to 2000 were investigated. Global climate model outputs of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used. SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios' outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used in future climate model projections. Future surface mean air temperatures of the larger Mediterranean basin increase mostly in summer and least in winter, and precipitation amounts decreases in all seasons at almost all parts of the basin. Future climate signals for surface air temperatures and precipitation totals will be much larger than the inter-model standard deviation. Inter-annual temperature variability increases evidently in summer season and decreases in the northern part of the domain in the winter season, while precipitation variability increases in almost all parts of domain. Probability distribution functions are found to be shifted and flattened for future period compared to reference period. This indicates that occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions will increase in the future period. This work has been supported by Bogazici University BAP under project number 7362. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...
Anas, Ridwan; Tamin, Ofyar; Wibowo, Sony S.
2016-09-01
The purpose of this study is to identify the relationships between infrastructure improvement and economic growth in the surrounding region. Traditionally, microeconomic and macroeconomic analyses are the mostly used tools for analyzing the linkage between transportation sectors and economic growth but offer little clues to the mechanisms linking transport improvements and the broader economy impacts. This study will estimate the broader economic benefits of the new transportation infrastructure investment, Cipularangtollway in West Java province, Indonesia, to the region connected (Bandung district) using Input-Output model. The result show the decrease of freight transportation costs by at 17 % and the increase of 1.2 % of Bandung District's GDP after the operation of Cipularangtollway.
Anas, Ridwan; Tamin, Ofyar; Wibowo, Sony S.
2016-08-01
The purpose of this study is to identify the relationships between infrastructure improvement and economic growth in the surrounding region. Traditionally, microeconomic and macroeconomic analyses are the mostly used tools for analyzing the linkage between transportation sectors and economic growth but offer little clues to the mechanisms linking transport improvements and the broader economy impacts. This study will estimate the broader economic benefits of the new transportation infrastructure investment, Cipularangtollway in West Java province, Indonesia, to the region connected (Bandung district) using Input-Output model. The result show the decrease of freight transportation costs by at 17 % and the increase of 1.2 % of Bandung District's GDP after the operation of Cipularangtollway.
A Discrete Velocity Traffic Kinetic Model Including Desired Speed
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shoufeng Lu
2013-05-01
Full Text Available We introduce the desired speed variable into the table of games and formulate a new table of games and the corresponding discrete traffic kinetic model. We use the hybrid programming technique of VB and MATLAB to develop the program. Lastly, we compared the proposed model result and the detector data. The results show that the proposed model can describe the traffic flow evolution.
Semi-holographic model including the radiation component
del Campo, Sergio; Magaña, Juan; Villanueva, J R
2014-01-01
In this letter we study the semi holographic model which corresponds to the radiative version of the model proposed by Zhang et al. (Phys. Lett. B 694 (2010), 177) and revisited by C\\'ardenas et al. (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 438 (2014), 3603). This inclusion makes the model more realistic, so allows us to test it with current observational data and then answer if the inconsistency reported by C\\'ardenas et al. is relaxed.
A Fault Evolution Model Including the Rupture Dynamic Simulation
Wu, Y.; Chen, X.
2011-12-01
We perform a preliminary numerical simulation of seismicity and stress evolution along a strike-slip fault in a 3D elastic half space. Following work of Ben-Zion (1996), the fault geometry is devised as a vertical plane which is about 70 km long and 17 km wide, comparable to the size of San Andreas Fault around Parkfield. The loading mechanism is described by "backslip" method. The fault failure is governed by a static/kinetic friction law, and induced stress transfer is calculated with Okada's static solution. In order to track the rupture propagation in detail, we allow induced stress to propagate through the medium at the shear wave velocity by introducing a distance-dependent time delay to responses to stress changes. Current simulation indicates small to moderate earthquakes following the Gutenberg-Richter law and quasi-periodical characteristic large earthquakes, which are consistent with previous work by others. Next we will consider introducing a more realistic friction law, namely, the laboratory-derived rate- and state- dependent law, which can simulate more realistic and complicated sliding behavior such as the stable and unstable slip, the aseismic sliding and the slip nucleation process. In addition, the long duration of aftershocks is expected to be reproduced due to this time-dependent friction law, which is not available in current seismicity simulation. The other difference from previous work is that we are trying to include the dynamic ruptures in this study. Most previous study on seismicity simulation is based on the static solution when dealing with failure induced stress changes. However, studies of numerical simulation of rupture dynamics have revealed lots of important details which are missing in the quasi-static/quasi- dynamic simulation. For example, dynamic simulations indicate that the slip on the ground surface becomes larger if the dynamic rupture process reaches the free surface. The concentration of stress on the propagating crack
Knoben, Wouter; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim
2016-04-01
Conceptual hydrologic models consist of a certain arrangement of spatial and temporal dynamics consisting of stores, fluxes and transformation functions, depending on the modeller's choices and intended use. They have the advantages of being computationally efficient, being relatively easy model structures to reconfigure and having relatively low input data demands. This makes them well-suited for large-scale and large-sample hydrology, where appropriately representing the dominant hydrologic functions of a catchment is a main concern. Given these requirements, the number of parameters in the model cannot be too high, to avoid equifinality and identifiability issues. This limits the number and level of complexity of dominant hydrologic processes the model can represent. Specific purposes and places thus require a specific model and this has led to an abundance of conceptual hydrologic models. No structured overview of these models exists and there is no clear method to select appropriate model structures for different catchments. This study is a first step towards creating an overview of the elements that make up conceptual models, which may later assist a modeller in finding an appropriate model structure for a given catchment. To this end, this study brings together over 30 past and present conceptual models. The reviewed model structures are simply different configurations of three basic model elements (stores, fluxes and transformation functions), depending on the hydrologic processes the models are intended to represent. Differences also exist in the inner workings of the stores, fluxes and transformations, i.e. the mathematical formulations that describe each model element's intended behaviour. We investigate the hypothesis that different model structures can produce similar behavioural simulations. This can clarify the overview of model elements by grouping elements which are similar, which can improve model structure selection.
A comparative verification of high resolution precipitation forecasts using model output statistics
van der Plas, Emiel; Schmeits, Maurice; Hooijman, Nicolien; Kok, Kees
2017-04-01
Verification of localized events such as precipitation has become even more challenging with the advent of high-resolution meso-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). The realism of a forecast suggests that it should compare well against precipitation radar imagery with similar resolution, both spatially and temporally. Spatial verification methods solve some of the representativity issues that point verification gives rise to. In this study a verification strategy based on model output statistics is applied that aims to address both double penalty and resolution effects that are inherent to comparisons of NWP models with different resolutions. Using predictors based on spatial precipitation patterns around a set of stations, an extended logistic regression (ELR) equation is deduced, leading to a probability forecast distribution of precipitation for each NWP model, analysis and lead time. The ELR equations are derived for predictands based on areal calibrated radar precipitation and SYNOP observations. The aim is to extract maximum information from a series of precipitation forecasts, like a trained forecaster would. The method is applied to the non-hydrostatic model Harmonie (2.5 km resolution), Hirlam (11 km resolution) and the ECMWF model (16 km resolution), overall yielding similar Brier skill scores for the 3 post-processed models, but larger differences for individual lead times. Besides, the Fractions Skill Score is computed using the 3 deterministic forecasts, showing somewhat better skill for the Harmonie model. In other words, despite the realism of Harmonie precipitation forecasts, they only perform similarly or somewhat better than precipitation forecasts from the 2 lower resolution models, at least in the Netherlands.
Evacuation modeling including traveler information and compliance behavior
Pel, A.J.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Bliemer, M.C.J.
2010-01-01
Traffic simulation models are often used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. Scenario analyses based on these models then typically focus on traffic dynamics and the effect of traffic control measures in order to locate possible bottlenecks and predict evacuation times. A clear approac
Global atmospheric model for mercury including oxidation by bromine atoms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. D. Holmes
2010-12-01
Full Text Available Global models of atmospheric mercury generally assume that gas-phase OH and ozone are the main oxidants converting Hg^{0} to Hg^{II} and thus driving mercury deposition to ecosystems. However, thermodynamic considerations argue against the importance of these reactions. We demonstrate here the viability of atomic bromine (Br as an alternative Hg^{0} oxidant. We conduct a global 3-D simulation with the GEOS-Chem model assuming gas-phase Br to be the sole Hg^{0} oxidant (Hg + Br model and compare to the previous version of the model with OH and ozone as the sole oxidants (Hg + OH/O_{3} model. We specify global 3-D Br concentration fields based on our best understanding of tropospheric and stratospheric Br chemistry. In both the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O_{3} models, we add an aqueous photochemical reduction of Hg^{II} in cloud to impose a tropospheric lifetime for mercury of 6.5 months against deposition, as needed to reconcile observed total gaseous mercury (TGM concentrations with current estimates of anthropogenic emissions. This added reduction would not be necessary in the Hg + Br model if we adjusted the Br oxidation kinetics downward within their range of uncertainty. We find that the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O_{3} models are equally capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of TGM and its seasonal cycle at northern mid-latitudes. The Hg + Br model shows a steeper decline of TGM concentrations from the tropics to southern mid-latitudes. Only the Hg + Br model can reproduce the springtime depletion and summer rebound of TGM observed at polar sites; the snowpack component of GEOS-Chem suggests that 40% of Hg^{II} deposited to snow in the Arctic is transferred to the ocean and land reservoirs, amounting to a net deposition flux to the Arctic of 60 Mg a^{−1}. Summertime events of depleted Hg^{0} at Antarctic sites due to subsidence are much better simulated by
Pilot Wave model that includes creation and annihilation of particles
Sverdlov, Roman
2010-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to come up with a Pilot Wave model of quantum field theory that incorporates particle creation and annihilation without sacrificing determinism. This has been previously attempted in an article by the same author titled "Incorporating particle creation and annihilation in Pilot Wave model", in a much less satisfactory way. In this paper I would like to "clean up" some of the things. In particular, I would like to get rid of a very unnatural concept of "visibility" of particles, which makes the model much simpler. On the other hand, I would like to add a mechanism for decoherence, which was absent in the previous version.
Global atmospheric model for mercury including oxidation by bromine atoms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. D. Holmes
2010-08-01
Full Text Available Global models of atmospheric mercury generally assume that OH and ozone are the main oxidants converting Hg^{0} to Hg^{II} and thus driving mercury deposition to ecosystems. However, thermodynamic considerations argue against the importance of these reactions. We demonstrate here the viability of atomic bromine (Br as an alternative Hg^{0} oxidant. We conduct a global 3-D simulation with the GEOS-Chem model assuming Br to be the sole Hg^{0} oxidant (Hg + Br model and compare to the previous version of the model with OH and ozone as the sole oxidants (Hg + OH/O_{3} model. We specify global 3-D Br concentration fields based on our best understanding of tropospheric and stratospheric Br chemistry. In both the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O_{3} models, we add an aqueous photochemical reduction of Hg^{II} in cloud to impose a tropospheric lifetime for mercury of 6.5 months against deposition, as needed to reconcile observed total gaseous mercury (TGM concentrations with current estimates of anthropogenic emissions. This added reduction would not be necessary in the Hg + Br model if we adjusted the Br oxidation kinetics downward within their range of uncertainty. We find that the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O_{3} models are equally capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of TGM and its seasonal cycle at northern mid-latitudes. The Hg + Br model shows a steeper decline of TGM concentrations from the tropics to southern mid-latitudes. Only the Hg + Br model can reproduce the springtime depletion and summer rebound of TGM observed at polar sites; the snowpack component of GEOS-Chem suggests that 40% of Hg^{II} deposited to snow in the Arctic is transferred to the ocean and land reservoirs, amounting to a net deposition flux of 60 Mg a^{−1}. Summertime events of depleted Hg^{0} at Antarctic sites due to subsidence are much better simulated by the Hg + Br model. Model
An Intracellular Calcium Oscillations Model Including Mitochondrial Calcium Cycling
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
SHI Xiao-Min; LIU Zeng-Rong
2005-01-01
@@ Calcium is a ubiquitous second messenger. Mitochondria contributes significantly to intracellular Ca2+ dynamics.The experiment of Kaftan et al. [J. Biol. Chem. 275(2000) 25465] demonstrated that inhibiting mitochondrial Ca2+ uptake can reduce the frequency of cytosolic Ca2+ concentration oscillations of gonadotropes. By considering the mitochondrial Ca2+ cycling we develop a three-variable model of intracellular Ca2+ oscillations based on the models of Atri et al. [Biophys. J. 65 (1993) 1727] and Falcke et al. [Biophys. J. 77 (1999) 37]. The model reproduces the fact that mitochondrial Ca2+ cycling increases the frequency of cytosolic Ca2+ oscillations, which accords with Kaftan's results. Moreover the model predicts that when the mitochondria overload with Ca2+, the cytosolic Ca2+ oscillations vanish, which may trigger apoptosis.
Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.
2002-01-01
Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.
Göhler, Maren; Mai, Juliane; Zacharias, Steffen; Cuntz, Matthias
2015-04-01
Pedotransfer Functions are often used to estimate soil water retention which is an important physical property of soils and hence quantifying their uncertainty is of high interest. Three independent uncertainties with regard to uncertainty in Pedotransfer Functions are analysed using a probabilistic approach: (1) uncertainty resulting through a limited data base for Pedotransfer Function calibration, (2) uncertainty arising through unknown errors in the measurements which are used for developing the Pedotransfer Functions, and (3) uncertainty arising through the application of the Pedotransfer Functions in a modeling procedure using soil maps with textural classifications. The third uncertainty, arising through the application of the functions to random textural compositions, appears to be the most influential uncertainty in water retention estimates especially for soil classes where sparse data was available for calibration. Furthermore, the bulk density is strongly influencing the variability in the saturated water content and spatial variations in soil moisture. Furthermore, the propagation of the uncertainty arising from random sampling of the calibration data set has a large effect on soil moisture computed with a mesoscale hydrologic model. The evapotranspiration is the most affected hydrologic model output, whereas the discharge shows only minor variation. The analysis of the measurement error remains difficult due to high correlation between the Pedotransfer function coefficients.
Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.
2002-01-01
Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.
Application of model output statistics to the GEM-AQ high resolution air quality forecast
Struzewska, J.; Kaminski, J. W.; Jefimow, M.
2016-11-01
The aim of the presented work was to analyse the impact of data stratification on the efficiency of the Model Output Statistics (MOS) methodology as applied to a high-resolution deterministic air quality forecast carried out with the GEM-AQ model. The following parameters forecasted by the GEM-AQ model were selected as predictors for the MOS equation: pollutant concentration, air temperature in the lowest model layer, wind speed in the lowest model layer, temperature inversion and the precipitation rate. A representative 2-year series were used to construct regression functions. Data series were divided into two subsets. Approximately 75% of the data (first 3 weeks of each month) were used to estimate the regression function parameters. Remaining 25% (last week of each month) were used to test the method (control period). The subsequent 12 months were used for method verification (verification period). A linear model fitted the function based on forecasted parameters to the observations. We have assumed four different temperature-based data stratification methods (for each method, separate equations were constructed). For PM10 and PM2.5, SO2 and NO2 the best correction results were obtained with the application of temperature thresholds in the cold season and seasonal distribution combined with temperature thresholds in the warm season. For the PM10, PM2.5 and SO2 the best results were obtained using a combination of two stratification methods separately for cold and warm seasons. For CO, the systematic bias of the forecasted concentrations was partly corrected. For ozone more sophisticated methods of data stratification did not bring a significant improvement.
Bossuyt, Juliaan; Howland, Michael; Meneveau, Charles; Meyers, Johan
2015-11-01
To optimize wind farm layouts for a maximum power output and wind turbine lifetime, mean power output measurements in wind tunnel studies are not sufficient. Instead, detailed temporal information about the power output and unsteady loading from every single wind turbine in the wind farm is needed. A very small porous disc model with a realistic thrust coefficient of 0.75 - 0.85, was designed. The model is instrumented with a strain gage, allowing measurements of the thrust force, incoming velocity and power output with a frequency response up to the natural frequency of the model. This is shown by reproducing the -5/3 spectrum from the incoming flow. Thanks to its small size and compact instrumentation, the model allows wind tunnel studies of large wind turbine arrays with detailed temporal information from every wind turbine. Translating to field conditions with a length-scale ratio of 1:3,000 the frequencies studied from the data reach from 10-4 Hz up to about 6 .10-2 Hz. The model's capabilities are demonstrated with a large wind farm measurement consisting of close to 100 instrumented models. A high correlation is found between the power outputs of stream wise aligned wind turbines, which is in good agreement with results from prior LES simulations. Work supported by ERC (ActiveWindFarms, grant no. 306471) and by NSF (grants CBET-113380 and IIA-1243482, the WINDINSPIRE project).
Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng
2017-04-01
Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when excess rainfall from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flood events pose a major hazard to urban regions across the world, with nearly two thirds of flood damages in the UK being caused by surface water flood events. The perceived risk of surface water flooding appears to have increased in recent years due to several factors, including (i) precipitation increases associated with climatic change and variability; (ii) population growth meaning more people are occupying flood risk areas, and; (iii) land-use changes. Because urban areas are often associated with a high proportion of impermeable land-uses (e.g. tarmacked or paved surfaces and buildings) and a reduced coverage of vegetated, permeable surfaces, urban surface water flood risk during high intensity precipitation events is often exacerbated. To investigate the influence of urbanisation and terrestrial factors on surface water flood outputs, rainfall intensity, catchment slope, permeability, building density/layout scenarios were designed within a novel, 9m2 physical modelling environment. The two-tiered physical model used consists of (i) a low-cost, nozzle-type rainfall simulator component which is able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed rainfall events of varying duration and intensity, and; (ii) a reconfigurable, modular plot surface. All experiments within the physical modelling environment were subjected to a spatiotemporally uniform 45-minute simulated rainfall event, while terrestrial factors on the physical model plot surface were altered systematically to investigate their hydrological response on modelled outflow and depth profiles. Results from the closed, controlled physical modelling experiments suggest that meteorological factors, such as the duration and intensity of simulated rainfall, and terrestrial factors, such as model slope
Cement-aggregate compatibility and structure property relationships including modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jennings, H.M.; Xi, Y.
1993-07-15
The role of aggregate, and its interface with cement paste, is discussed with a view toward establishing models that relate structure to properties. Both short (nm) and long (mm) range structure must be considered. The short range structure of the interface depends not only on the physical distribution of the various phases, but also on moisture content and reactivity of aggregate. Changes that occur on drying, i.e. shrinkage, may alter the structure which, in turn, feeds back to alter further drying and shrinkage. The interaction is dynamic, even without further hydration of cement paste, and the dynamic characteristic must be considered in order to fully understand and model its contribution to properties. Microstructure and properties are two subjects which have been pursued somewhat separately. This review discusses both disciplines with a view toward finding common research goals in the future. Finally, comment is made on possible chemical reactions which may occur between aggregate and cement paste.
Including lateral interactions into microkinetic models of catalytic reactions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hellman, Anders; Honkala, Johanna Karoliina
2007-01-01
In many catalytic reactions lateral interactions between adsorbates are believed to have a strong influence on the reaction rates. We apply a microkinetic model to explore the effect of lateral interactions and how to efficiently take them into account in a simple catalytic reaction. Three differ...... different approximations are investigated: site, mean-field, and quasichemical approximations. The obtained results are compared to accurate Monte Carlo numbers. In the end, we apply the approximations to a real catalytic reaction, namely, ammonia synthesis....
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
胡志坤; 桂卫华; 彭小奇
2004-01-01
An on-line forecasting model based on self-tuning support vectors regression for zinc output was put forward to maximize zinc output by adjusting operational parameters in the process of imperial smelting furnace. In this model, the mathematical model of support vector regression was converted into the same format as support vector machine for classification. Then a simplified sequential minimal optimization for classification was applied to train the regression coefficient vector α- α* and threshold b. Sequentially penalty parameter C was tuned dynamically through forecasting result during the training process. Finally, an on-line forecasting algorithm for zinc output was proposed. The simulation result shows that in spite of a relatively small industrial data set, the effective error is less than 10% with a remarkable performance of real time. The model was applied to the optimization operation and fault diagnosis system for imperial smelting furnace.
Modelling Implicit Communication in Multi-Agent Systems with Hybrid Input/Output Automata
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marta Capiluppi
2012-10-01
Full Text Available We propose an extension of Hybrid I/O Automata (HIOAs to model agent systems and their implicit communication through perturbation of the environment, like localization of objects or radio signals diffusion and detection. To this end we decided to specialize some variables of the HIOAs whose values are functions both of time and space. We call them world variables. Basically they are treated similarly to the other variables of HIOAs, but they have the function of representing the interaction of each automaton with the surrounding environment, hence they can be output, input or internal variables. Since these special variables have the role of simulating implicit communication, their dynamics are specified both in time and space, because they model the perturbations induced by the agent to the environment, and the perturbations of the environment as perceived by the agent. Parallel composition of world variables is slightly different from parallel composition of the other variables, since their signals are summed. The theory is illustrated through a simple example of agents systems.
Effective Relaying in Two-user Interference Channel with Different Models of Channel Output Feedback
Sahai, Achaleshwar; Yuksel, Melda; Sabharwal, Ashutosh
2011-01-01
In this paper, we study the impact of channel output feedback architectures on the capacity of two-user interference channel. For a two-user interference channel, a feedback link can exist between receivers and transmitters in 9 canonical architectures, ranging from only one feedback link to four-feedback links. We derive exact capacity region for the deterministic interference channel and constant-gap capacity region for the Gaussian interference channel for all but two of the 9 architectures (or models). We find that the sum-capacity in deterministic interference channel with only one feedback link, from any one receiver to its own transmitter, is identical to the interference channel with four feedback links; for the Gaussian model, the gap is bounded for all channel gains. However, one feedback link is not sufficient to achieve the whole capacity region of four feedback links. To achieve the full capacity region requires at least two feedback links. To prove the results, we derive several new outer bounds...
Linear summation of outputs in a balanced network model of motor cortex.
Capaday, Charles; van Vreeswijk, Carl
2015-01-01
Given the non-linearities of the neural circuitry's elements, we would expect cortical circuits to respond non-linearly when activated. Surprisingly, when two points in the motor cortex are activated simultaneously, the EMG responses are the linear sum of the responses evoked by each of the points activated separately. Additionally, the corticospinal transfer function is close to linear, implying that the synaptic interactions in motor cortex must be effectively linear. To account for this, here we develop a model of motor cortex composed of multiple interconnected points, each comprised of reciprocally connected excitatory and inhibitory neurons. We show how non-linearities in neuronal transfer functions are eschewed by strong synaptic interactions within each point. Consequently, the simultaneous activation of multiple points results in a linear summation of their respective outputs. We also consider the effects of reduction of inhibition at a cortical point when one or more surrounding points are active. The network response in this condition is linear over an approximately two- to three-fold decrease of inhibitory feedback strength. This result supports the idea that focal disinhibition allows linear coupling of motor cortical points to generate movement related muscle activation patterns; albeit with a limitation on gain control. The model also explains why neural activity does not spread as far out as the axonal connectivity allows, whilst also explaining why distant cortical points can be, nonetheless, functionally coupled by focal disinhibition. Finally, we discuss the advantages that linear interactions at the cortical level afford to motor command synthesis.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Yingmin Jia
2009-01-01
This paper mainly studies the model matching problem of multiple-output-delay systems in which the reference model is assigned to a diagonal transfer function matrix.A new model matching controller structure is first developed,and then,it is shown that the controller is feasible if and only if the sets of Diophantine equations have common solutions.The obtained controller allows a parametric representation,which shows that an adaptive scheme can be used to tolerate parameter variations in the plants.The resulting adaptive law can guarantee the global stability of the closed-loop systems and the convergence of the output error.
Comparison of Joint Modeling Approaches Including Eulerian Sliding Interfaces
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lomov, I; Antoun, T; Vorobiev, O
2009-12-16
Accurate representation of discontinuities such as joints and faults is a key ingredient for high fidelity modeling of shock propagation in geologic media. The following study was done to improve treatment of discontinuities (joints) in the Eulerian hydrocode GEODYN (Lomov and Liu 2005). Lagrangian methods with conforming meshes and explicit inclusion of joints in the geologic model are well suited for such an analysis. Unfortunately, current meshing tools are unable to automatically generate adequate hexahedral meshes for large numbers of irregular polyhedra. Another concern is that joint stiffness in such explicit computations requires significantly reduced time steps, with negative implications for both the efficiency and quality of the numerical solution. An alternative approach is to use non-conforming meshes and embed joint information into regular computational elements. However, once slip displacement on the joints become comparable to the zone size, Lagrangian (even non-conforming) meshes could suffer from tangling and decreased time step problems. The use of non-conforming meshes in an Eulerian solver may alleviate these difficulties and provide a viable numerical approach for modeling the effects of faults on the dynamic response of geologic materials. We studied shock propagation in jointed/faulted media using a Lagrangian and two Eulerian approaches. To investigate the accuracy of this joint treatment the GEODYN calculations have been compared with results from the Lagrangian code GEODYN-L which uses an explicit treatment of joints via common plane contact. We explore two approaches to joint treatment in the code, one for joints with finite thickness and the other for tight joints. In all cases the sliding interfaces are tracked explicitly without homogenization or blending the joint and block response into an average response. In general, rock joints will introduce an increase in normal compliance in addition to a reduction in shear strength. In the
Neighboring extremal optimal control design including model mismatch errors
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, T.J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hull, D.G. [Texas Univ., Austin, TX (United States). Dept. of Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics
1994-11-01
The mismatch control technique that is used to simplify model equations of motion in order to determine analytic optimal control laws is extended using neighboring extremal theory. The first variation optimal control equations are linearized about the extremal path to account for perturbations in the initial state and the final constraint manifold. A numerical example demonstrates that the tuning procedure inherent in the mismatch control method increases the performance of the controls to the level of a numerically-determined piecewise-linear controller.
Double pendulum model for tennis stroke including a collision process
Youn, Sun-Hyun
2015-01-01
By means of adding a collision process between the ball and racket in double pendulum model, we analyzed the tennis stroke. It is possible that the speed of the rebound ball does not simply depend on the angular velocity of the racket, and higher angular velocity sometimes gives lower ball speed. We numerically showed that the proper time lagged racket rotation increases the speed of the rebound ball by 20%. We also showed that the elbow should move in order to add the angular velocity of the racket.
Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hahmann, Andrea N.; Vincent, Claire Louise; Peña, Alfredo
2015-01-01
setup parameters. The results of the year-long sensitivity simulations show that the long-term mean wind speed simulated by the WRF model offshore in the region studied is quite insensitive to the global reanalysis, the number of vertical levels, and the horizontal resolution of the sea surface......High-quality tall mast and wind lidar measurements over the North and Baltic Seas are used to validate the wind climatology produced from winds simulated by the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in analysis mode. Biases in annual mean wind speed between model and observations at heights...... around 100m are smaller than 3.2% at offshore sites, except for those that are affected by the wake of a wind farm or the coastline. These biases are smaller than those obtained by using winds directly from the reanalysis. We study the sensitivity of the WRF-simulated wind climatology to various model...
Model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...
Assessing the use of subgrid land model output to study impacts of land cover change
Schultz, Natalie M.; Lee, Xuhui; Lawrence, Peter J.; Lawrence, David M.; Zhao, Lei
2016-06-01
Subgrid information from land models has the potential to be a powerful tool for investigating land-atmosphere interactions, but relatively few studies have attempted to exploit subgrid output. In this study, we modify the configuration of the Community Land Model version CLM4.5 so that each plant functional type (PFT) is assigned its own soil column. We compare subgrid and grid cell-averaged air temperature and surface energy fluxes from this modified case (PFTCOL) to a case with the default configuration—a shared soil column for all PFTs (CTRL)—and examine the difference in simulated surface air temperature between grass and tree PFTs within the same grid cells (ΔTGT). The magnitude and spatial patterns of ΔTGT from PFTCOL agree more closely with observations, ranging from -1.5 K in boreal regions to +0.6 K in the tropics. We find that the column configuration has a large effect on PFT-level energy fluxes. In the CTRL configuration, the PFT-level annual mean ground heat flux (G) differs substantially from zero. For example, at a typical tropical grid cell, the annual G is 31.8 W m-2 for the tree PFTs and -14.7 W m-2 for grass PFTs. In PFTCOL, G is always close to zero. These results suggest that care must be taken when assessing local land cover change impacts with subgrid information. For models with PFTs on separate columns, it may be possible to isolate the differences in land surface fluxes between vegetation types that would be associated with land cover change from other climate forcings and feedbacks in climate model simulations.
Human sperm chromatin stabilization: a proposed model including zinc bridges.
Björndahl, Lars; Kvist, Ulrik
2010-01-01
The primary focus of this review is to challenge the current concepts on sperm chromatin stability. The observations (i) that zinc depletion at ejaculation allows a rapid and total sperm chromatin decondensation without the addition of exogenous disulfide cleaving agents and (ii) that the human sperm chromatin contains one zinc for every protamine for every turn of the DNA helix suggest an alternative model for sperm chromatin structure may be plausible. An alternative model is therefore proposed, that the human spermatozoon could at ejaculation have a rapidly reversible zinc dependent chromatin stability: Zn(2+) stabilizes the structure and prevents the formation of excess disulfide bridges by a single mechanism, the formation of zinc bridges with protamine thiols of cysteine and potentially imidazole groups of histidine. Extraction of zinc enables two biologically totally different outcomes: immediate decondensation if chromatin fibers are concomitantly induced to repel (e.g. by phosphorylation in the ooplasm); otherwise freed thiols become committed into disulfide bridges creating a superstabilized chromatin. Spermatozoa in the zinc rich prostatic fluid (normally the first expelled ejaculate fraction) represent the physiological situation. Extraction of chromatin zinc can be accomplished by the seminal vesicular fluid. Collection of the ejaculate in one single container causes abnormal contact between spermatozoa and seminal vesicular fluid affecting the sperm chromatin stability. There are men in infertile couples with low content of sperm chromatin zinc due to loss of zinc during ejaculation and liquefaction. Tests for sperm DNA integrity may give false negative results due to decreased access for the assay to the DNA in superstabilized chromatin.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S.N.M.P. Simamora
2014-10-01
Full Text Available Efficiency condition occurs when the value of the used outputs compared to the resource total that has been used almost close to the value 1 (absolute environment. An instrument to achieve efficiency if the power output level has decreased significantly in the life of the instrument used, if it compared to the previous condition, when the instrument is not equipped with additional systems (or proposed model improvement. Even more effective if the inputs model that are used in unison to achieve a homogeneous output. On this research has been designed and implemented the automatic control system for models of single input-dual-output, wherein the sampling instruments used are lamp and fan. Source voltage used is AC (alternate-current and tested using quantitative research methods and instrumentation (with measuring instruments are observed. The results obtained demonstrate the efficiency of the instrument experienced a significant current model of single-input-dual-output applied separately instrument trials such as lamp and fan when it compared to the condition or state before. And the result show that the design has been built, can also run well.
Global model including multistep ionizations in helium plasmas
Oh, Seung-Ju; Lee, Hyo-Chang; Chung, Chin-Wook
2016-12-01
Particle and power balance equations including stepwise ionizations are derived and solved in helium plasmas. In the balance equations, two metastable states (21S1 in singlet and 23S1 triplet) are considered and the followings are obtained. The plasma density linearly increases and the electron temperature is relatively in a constant value against the absorbed power. It is also found that the contribution to multi-step ionization with respect to the single-step ionization is in the range of 8%-23%, as the gas pressure increases from 10 mTorr to 100 mTorr. Compared to the results in the argon plasma, there is little variation in the collisional energy loss per electron-ion pair created (ɛc) with absorbed power and gas pressure due to the small collision cross section and higher inelastic collision threshold energy.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
BIAN Fuping; TANG Xiaoqin
2006-01-01
This paper proposes a stochastic prediction DEA model with undesirable outputs and simplifies the process using chance constrained techniques in order to obtain an equivalent linear programming formulation. The existence and stability of the optimal solutions have been proved. And the model is used to describe and predict the efficiency of anti-HIV therapy in AIDS patients.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Ichii
2009-08-01
Full Text Available Terrestrial biosphere models show large uncertainties when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these uncertainties is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of both terrestrial ecosystem statuses and future climate changes. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of these carbon budgets, we investigated the ability of flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine-based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID, we conducted two simulations: (1 point simulations at four flux sites in Japan and (2 spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings and an improved model (based on calibration using flux observations. Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using flux observations (GPP, RE and NEP, most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs, and model calibration using flux observations significantly improved the model outputs. These results show that to reduce uncertainties among terrestrial biosphere models, we need to conduct careful validation and calibration with available flux observations. Flux observation data significantly improved terrestrial biosphere models, not only on a point scale but also on spatial scales.
Modelization of a water tank including a PCM module
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ibanez, Manuel [Dept. de Medi Ambient i Ciencies del Sol, Universitat de Lleida, Rovira Roure 191, 25198 Lleida (Spain); Cabeza, Luisa F.; Sole, Cristian; Roca, Joan; Nogues, Miquel [Dept. d' Informatica i Eng. Industrial, Universitat de Lleida, Jaume II 69, 25001 Lleida (Spain)
2006-08-15
The reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions is a key component for today's governments. Therefore, implementation of more and more systems with renewable energies is necessary. Solar systems for single family houses or residential buildings need a big water tank that many times is not easy to locate. This paper studies the modelization of a new technology where PCM modules are implemented in domestic hot water tanks to reduce their size without reducing the energy stored. A new TRNSYS component, based in the already existing TYPE 60, was developed, called TYPE 60PCM. After tuning the new component with experimental results, two more experiences were developed to validate the simulation of a water tank with two cylindrical PCM modules using type 60PCM, the cooldown and reheating experiments. Concordance between experimental and simulated data was very good. Since the new TRNSYS component was developed to simulate full solar systems, comparison of experimental results from a pilot plant solar system with simulations were performed, and they confirmed that the type 60PCM is a powerful tool to evaluate the performance of PCM modules in water tanks. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Javad Faiz
2011-01-01
Full Text Available A UPS inverter operates in wide load impedance ranges from resistive to capacitive or inductive load. At the same time, fast transient load response, good load regulation and good switching frequency suppression is required. The variation of the load impedance changes the filter transfer characteristic and thus the output voltage value. In this paper, an analysis and simulation of the single phase voltage source uninterruptible power supply (UPS with fourth order filter (multiple-filter in output inverter, based on the state space averaging and small signal linearization technique, is proposed. The simulation results show the high quality sinusoidal output voltage at different loads, with THD less than %5.
Beyond R0: demographic models for variability of lifetime reproductive output.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hal Caswell
Full Text Available The net reproductive rate R0 measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, R0 provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants.
Arsad, Roslah; Nasir Abdullah, Mohammad; Alias, Suriana; Isa, Zaidi
2017-09-01
Stock evaluation has always been an interesting problem for investors. In this paper, a comparison regarding the efficiency stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia were made through the application of estimation method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). One of the interesting research subjects in DEA is the selection of appropriate input and output parameter. In this study, DEA was used to measure efficiency of stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia in terms of the financial ratio to evaluate performance of stocks. Based on previous studies and Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), the most important financial ratio was selected. The results indicated that return on equity, return on assets, net profit margin, operating profit margin, earnings per share, price to earnings and debt to equity were the most important ratios. Using expert information, all the parameter were clarified as inputs and outputs. The main objectives were to identify most critical financial ratio, clarify them based on expert information and compute the relative efficiency scores of stocks as well as rank them in the construction industry and material completely. The methods of analysis using Alirezaee and Afsharian’s model were employed in this study, where the originality of Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) with the assumption of Constant Return to Scale (CSR) still holds. This method of ranking relative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) was value-added by the Balance Index. The interested data was made for year 2015 and the population of the research includes accepted companies in stock markets in the construction industry and material (63 companies). According to the ranking, the proposed model can rank completely for 63 companies using selected financial ratio.
Wang, Xianxun; Mei, Yadong
2017-04-01
Coordinative operation of hydro-wind-photovoltaic is the solution of mitigating the conflict of power generation and output fluctuation of new energy and conquering the bottleneck of new energy development. Due to the deficiencies of characterizing output fluctuation, depicting grid construction and disposal of power abandon, the research of coordinative mechanism is influenced. In this paper, the multi-object and multi-hierarchy model of coordinative operation of hydro-wind-photovoltaic is built with the aim of maximizing power generation and minimizing output fluctuation and the constraints of topotaxy of power grid and balanced disposal of power abandon. In the case study, the comparison of uncoordinative and coordinative operation is carried out with the perspectives of power generation, power abandon and output fluctuation. By comparison from power generation, power abandon and output fluctuation between separate operation and coordinative operation of multi-power, the coordinative mechanism is studied. Compared with running solely, coordinative operation of hydro-wind-photovoltaic can gain the compensation benefits. Peak-alternation operation reduces the power abandon significantly and maximizes resource utilization effectively by compensating regulation of hydropower. The Pareto frontier of power generation and output fluctuation is obtained through multiple-objective optimization. It clarifies the relationship of mutual influence between these two objects. When coordinative operation is taken, output fluctuation can be markedly reduced at the cost of a slight decline of power generation. The power abandon also drops sharply compared with operating separately. Applying multi-objective optimization method to optimize the coordinate operation, Pareto optimal solution set of power generation and output fluctuation is achieved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Asma Foughali
2015-07-01
Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to
Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model
Fader, M.; von Bloh, W.; Shi, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.
2015-11-01
In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall, direct degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the eastern and southern shores, will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land - LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural) and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development paves the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry), and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments of the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.
Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Fader
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Climate and land use change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect natural and agricultural ecosystems by decreases in precipitation, increases in temperature as well as biodiversity loss and anthropogenic degradation of natural resources. Demographic growth in the Eastern and Southern shores will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL: nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development pave the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry, and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments on the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.
Nillius, Peter; Klamra, Wlodek; Sibczynski, Pawel; Sharma, Diksha; Danielsson, Mats; Badano, Aldo
2015-02-01
The authors report on measurements of light output and spatial resolution of microcolumnar CsI:Tl scintillator detectors for x-ray imaging. In addition, the authors discuss the results of simulations aimed at analyzing the results of synchrotron and sealed-source exposures with respect to the contributions of light transport to the total light output. The authors measured light output from a 490-μm CsI:Tl scintillator screen using two setups. First, the authors used a photomultiplier tube (PMT) to measure the response of the scintillator to sealed-source exposures. Second, the authors performed imaging experiments with a 27-keV monoenergetic synchrotron beam and a slit to calculate the total signal generated in terms of optical photons per keV. The results of both methods are compared to simulations obtained with hybridmantis, a coupled x-ray, electron, and optical photon Monte Carlo transport package. The authors report line response (LR) and light output for a range of linear absorption coefficients and describe a model that fits at the same time the light output and the blur measurements. Comparing the experimental results with the simulations, the authors obtained an estimate of the absorption coefficient for the model that provides good agreement with the experimentally measured LR. Finally, the authors report light output simulation results and their dependence on scintillator thickness and reflectivity of the backing surface. The slit images from the synchrotron were analyzed to obtain a total light output of 48 keV(-1) while measurements using the fast PMT instrument setup and sealed-sources reported a light output of 28 keV(-1) . The authors attribute the difference in light output estimates between the two methods to the difference in time constants between the camera and PMT measurements. Simulation structures were designed to match the light output measured with the camera while providing good agreement with the measured LR resulting in a bulk
Teams in organizations: from input-process-output models to IMOI models.
Ilgen, Daniel R; Hollenbeck, John R; Johnson, Michael; Jundt, Dustin
2005-01-01
This review examines research and theory relevant to work groups and teams typically embedded in organizations and existing over time, although many studies reviewed were conducted in other settings, including the laboratory. Research was organized around a two-dimensional system based on time and the nature of explanatory mechanisms that mediated between team inputs and outcomes. These mechanisms were affective, behavioral, cognitive, or some combination of the three. Recent theoretical and methodological work is discussed that has advanced our understanding of teams as complex, multilevel systems that function over time, tasks, and contexts. The state of both the empirical and theoretical work is compared as to its impact on present knowledge and future directions.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2006-01-01
In this paper, an extended Kendall model for the priority scheduling input-line group output with multi-channel in Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) exchange system is proposed and then the mean method is used to model mathematically the non-typical non-anticipative PRiority service (PR) model. Compared with the typical and non-anticipative PR model, it expresses the characteristics of the priority scheduling input-line group output with multi-channel in ATM exchange system. The simulation experiment shows that this model can improve the HOL block and the performance of input-queued ATM switch network dramatically. This model has a better developing prospect in ATM exchange system.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chen, Lingen; Kan, Xuxian; Sun, Fengrui; Wu, Feng [College of Naval Architecture and Power, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China)
2013-07-01
The operation of a universal steady flow endoreversible refrigeration cycle model consisting of a constant thermal-capacity heating branch, two constant thermal-capacity cooling branches and two adiabatic branches is viewed as a production process with exergy as its output. The finite time exergoeconomic performance optimization of the refrigeration cycle is investigated by taking profit rate optimization criterion as the objective. The relations between the profit rate and the temperature ratio of working fluid, between the COP (coefficient of performance) and the temperature ratio of working fluid, as well as the optimal relation between profit rate and the COP of the cycle are derived. The focus of this paper is to search the compromised optimization between economics (profit rate) and the utilization factor (COP) for endoreversible refrigeration cycles, by searching the optimum COP at maximum profit, which is termed as the finite-time exergoeconomic performance bound. Moreover, performance analysis and optimization of the model are carried out in order to investigate the effect of cycle process on the performance of the cycles using numerical example. The results obtained herein include the performance characteristics of endoreversible Carnot, Diesel, Otto, Atkinson, Dual and Brayton refrigeration cycles.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lingen Chen, Xuxian Kan, Fengrui Sun, Feng Wu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The operation of a universal steady flow endoreversible refrigeration cycle model consisting of a constant thermal-capacity heating branch, two constant thermal-capacity cooling branches and two adiabatic branches is viewed as a production process with exergy as its output. The finite time exergoeconomic performance optimization of the refrigeration cycle is investigated by taking profit rate optimization criterion as the objective. The relations between the profit rate and the temperature ratio of working fluid, between the COP (coefficient of performance and the temperature ratio of working fluid, as well as the optimal relation between profit rate and the COP of the cycle are derived. The focus of this paper is to search the compromised optimization between economics (profit rate and the utilization factor (COP for endoreversible refrigeration cycles, by searching the optimum COP at maximum profit, which is termed as the finite-time exergoeconomic performance bound. Moreover, performance analysis and optimization of the model are carried out in order to investigate the effect of cycle process on the performance of the cycles using numerical example. The results obtained herein include the performance characteristics of endoreversible Carnot, Diesel, Otto, Atkinson, Dual and Brayton refrigeration cycles.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. R. Moroz
2007-01-01
Full Text Available The paper gives description of a method for modeling electric power consumption by industrial enterprises with a complicated technological process that differs in accounting parameters of power consumption distribution laws and volume of output. The proposed method permits reliably to evaluate specific technological consumption of electric power and a direct component of electric power consumption.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
2010-01-01
Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage of water resources,tremendous pressure on ecological balance,insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang,agriculture remaining a weak industry,agricultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang,and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang.Taking the Aksu area as an example,according to the input and output data in the years 2002-2007,input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis.DPS software is used in the process of solving the model.Then,Eviews software is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained,and to make additional explanations of the relevant model.Since the agricultural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present,the following countermeasures are put forward,such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land,improving the utilization ratio of land,increasing agricultural input,realizing agricultural modernization,rationally utilizing water resources,maintaining eco-environmental balance,enhancing the awareness of agricultural insurance,minimizing the risk and loss,taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural products,and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.
We combined long-term data on plant phenology with simulation modeling output and remote sensing data to characterize diverse landscapes at the Jornada Experimental Range in the northern Chihuahuan Desert of southern New Mexico. Phenology of 15 key species in Chihuahuan Desert plant communities have...
Li, K.; Li, S. J.; Liu, Y.; Wang, W.; Wu, C.
2015-08-01
At the present, in trend of shifting the old 2D-output oriented survey to a new 3D-output oriented survey based on BIM technology, the corresponding working methods and workflow for data capture, process, representation, etc. have to be changed.Based on case study of two buildings in the Summer Palace of Beijing, and Jiayuguan Pass at the west end of the Great Wall (both World Heritage sites), this paper puts forward a "structure-and-type method" by means of typological method used in archaeology, Revit family system, and the tectonic logic of building to realize a good coordination between understanding of historic buildings and BIM modelling.
The input and output management of solid waste using DEA models: A case study at Jengka, Pahang
Mohamed, Siti Rosiah; Ghazali, Nur Fadzrina Mohd; Mohd, Ainun Hafizah
2017-08-01
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as a tool for obtaining performance indices has been used extensively in several of organizations sector. The ways to improve the efficiency of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is impractical because some of inputs and outputs are uncontrollable and in certain situation its produce weak efficiency which often reflect the impact for operating environment. Based on the data from Alam Flora Sdn. Bhd Jengka, the researcher wants to determine the efficiency of solid waste management (SWM) in town Jengka Pahang using CCRI and CCRO model of DEA and duality formulation with vector average input and output. Three input variables (length collection in meter, frequency time per week in hour and number of garbage truck) and 2 outputs variables (frequency collection and the total solid waste collection in kilogram) are analyzed. As a conclusion, it shows only three roads from 23 roads are efficient that achieve efficiency score 1. Meanwhile, 20 other roads are in an inefficient management.
Low Cardiac Output Leads Hepatic Fibrosis in Right Heart Failure Model Rats.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yoshitaka Fujimoto
Full Text Available Hepatic fibrosis progresses with right heart failure, and becomes cardiac cirrhosis in a severe case. Although its causal factor still remains unclear. Here we evaluated the progression of hepatic fibrosis using a pulmonary artery banding (PAB-induced right heart failure model and investigated whether cardiac output (CO is responsible for the progression of hepatic fibrosis.Five-week-old Sprague-Dawley rats divided into the PAB and sham-operated control groups. After 4 weeks from operation, we measured CO by echocardiography, and hepatic fibrosis ratio by pathological examination using a color analyzer. In the PAB group, CO was significantly lower by 48% than that in the control group (78.2±27.6 and 150.1±31.2 ml/min, P<0.01. Hepatic fibrosis ratio and serum hyaluronic acid, an index of hepatic fibrosis, were significantly increased in the PAB group than those in the control group (7.8±1.7 and 1.0±0.2%, P<0.01, 76.2±27.5 and 32.7±7.5 ng/ml, P<0.01. Notably, the degree of hepatic fibrosis significantly correlated a decrease in CO. Immunohistological analysis revealed that hepatic stellate cells were markedly activated in hypoxic areas, and HIF-1α positive hepatic cells were increased in the PAB group. Furthermore, by real-time PCR analyses, transcripts of profibrotic and fibrotic factors (TGF-β1, CTGF, procollargen I, procollargen III, MMP 2, MMP 9, TIMP 1, TIMP 2 were significantly increased in the PAB group. In addition, western blot analyses revealed that the protein level of HIF-1α was significantly increased in the PAB group than that in the control group (2.31±0.84 and 1.0±0.18 arbitrary units, P<0.05.Our study demonstrated that low CO and tissue hypoxia were responsible for hepatic fibrosis in right failure heart model rats.
Meshkat, Nicolette; Anderson, Chris; Distefano, Joseph J
2011-09-01
When examining the structural identifiability properties of dynamic system models, some parameters can take on an infinite number of values and yet yield identical input-output data. These parameters and the model are then said to be unidentifiable. Finding identifiable combinations of parameters with which to reparameterize the model provides a means for quantitatively analyzing the model and computing solutions in terms of the combinations. In this paper, we revisit and explore the properties of an algorithm for finding identifiable parameter combinations using Gröbner Bases and prove useful theoretical properties of these parameter combinations. We prove a set of M algebraically independent identifiable parameter combinations can be found using this algorithm and that there exists a unique rational reparameterization of the input-output equations over these parameter combinations. We also demonstrate application of the procedure to a nonlinear biomodel.
A method for the identification of state space models from input and output measurements
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Di Ruscio
1995-07-01
Full Text Available In this paper we present a simple and general algorithm for the combined deterministic stochastic realization problem directly from known input and output time series. The solution to the pure deterministic as well as the pure stochastic realization problem are special cases of the method presented.
Baer, P.; Mastrandrea, M.
2006-12-01
Simple probabilistic models which attempt to estimate likely transient temperature change from specified CO2 emissions scenarios must make assumptions about at least six uncertain aspects of the causal chain between emissions and temperature: current radiative forcing (including but not limited to aerosols), current land use emissions, carbon sinks, future non-CO2 forcing, ocean heat uptake, and climate sensitivity. Of these, multiple PDFs (probability density functions) have been published for the climate sensitivity, a couple for current forcing and ocean heat uptake, one for future non-CO2 forcing, and none for current land use emissions or carbon cycle uncertainty (which are interdependent). Different assumptions about these parameters, as well as different model structures, will lead to different estimates of likely temperature increase from the same emissions pathway. Thus policymakers will be faced with a range of temperature probability distributions for the same emissions scenarios, each described by a central tendency and spread. Because our conventional understanding of uncertainty and probability requires that a probabilistically defined variable of interest have only a single mean (or median, or modal) value and a well-defined spread, this "multidimensional" uncertainty defies straightforward utilization in policymaking. We suggest that there are no simple solutions to the questions raised. Crucially, we must dispel the notion that there is a "true" probability probabilities of this type are necessarily subjective, and reasonable people may disagree. Indeed, we suggest that what is at stake is precisely the question, what is it reasonable to believe, and to act as if we believe? As a preliminary suggestion, we demonstrate how the output of a simple probabilistic climate model might be evaluated regarding the reasonableness of the outputs it calculates with different input PDFs. We suggest further that where there is insufficient evidence to clearly
2014-11-01
Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. Citation of manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an official...high- performance computing (HPC) and overall data longevity . The Battlefield Environment Division Modeling Framework (BMF) v0.90 was developed for the...use of object-oriented program (OOP) design . Here we extend BMF to include IO functionality for serial and distributed compute configurations. The
Zhang, Guangyi; Gao, Shiqiao; Liu, Haipeng
2016-09-01
In this paper, a utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage is presented. Firstly, the harvester's three theoretical models are presented, namely the static model, the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model. By analyzing the influence of the mass ratio of the mass block to the beam on output characteristics of the harvester, we compare the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model and then define their applicable ranges. Secondly, simulation and experiments are done to verify the models, using the harvester with PZT-5H piezoelectric material, which are proved to be consistent with each other. The experimental results show that the output open-circuit voltage and the output power can reach up to 86.36V and 27.5mW respectively. The experiments are conducted when this harvester system is excited by the first modal frequency (58.90Hz) with the acceleration 10m/s2. In this low frequency vibration case, it is easy to capture the energy in the daily environment. In addition, LTC 3588-1 chip (Linear Technology Corporation) is used as the medium energy circuit to transfer charges from the PZT-5H electrode to the 0.22F 5V super capacitor and ML621 rechargeable button battery. For this super-capacitor, it takes about 100min for the capacitor voltage to rise from 0V to 3.6V. For this button battery, it takes about 200min to increase the battery voltage from 2.5V to 3.48V.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guangyi Zhang
2016-09-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage is presented. Firstly, the harvester’s three theoretical models are presented, namely the static model, the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model. By analyzing the influence of the mass ratio of the mass block to the beam on output characteristics of the harvester, we compare the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model and then define their applicable ranges. Secondly, simulation and experiments are done to verify the models, using the harvester with PZT-5H piezoelectric material, which are proved to be consistent with each other. The experimental results show that the output open-circuit voltage and the output power can reach up to 86.36V and 27.5mW respectively. The experiments are conducted when this harvester system is excited by the first modal frequency (58.90Hz with the acceleration 10m/s2. In this low frequency vibration case, it is easy to capture the energy in the daily environment. In addition, LTC 3588-1 chip (Linear Technology Corporation is used as the medium energy circuit to transfer charges from the PZT-5H electrode to the 0.22F 5V super capacitor and ML621 rechargeable button battery. For this super-capacitor, it takes about 100min for the capacitor voltage to rise from 0V to 3.6V. For this button battery, it takes about 200min to increase the battery voltage from 2.5V to 3.48V.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Martin, E. [Centre Nat. de Recherches Meteorologiques Centre d`Etudes de la Neige, St. Martin d`Heres (France). Meteo-France; Timbal, B. [Groupe de Meteorologie a Grande Echelle et Climat, Toulouse (France); Brun, E. [Centre Nat. de Recherches Meteorologiques Centre d`Etudes de la Neige, St. Martin d`Heres (France). Meteo-France
1996-12-01
A downscaling method was developed to simulate the seasonal snow cover of the French Alps from general circulation model outputs under various scenarios. It consists of an analogue procedure, which associates a real meteorological situation to a model output. It is based on the comparison between simulated upper air fields and meteorological analyses from the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts. The selection uses a nearest neighbour method at a daily time-step. In a second phase, the snow cover is simulated by the snow model CROCUS at several elevations and in the different regions of the French Alps by using data from the real meteorological situations. The method is tested with real data and applied to various ARPEGE/climate simulations: the present climate and two climate change scenarios. (orig.). With 10 figs., 4 tabs.
Martin, E.; Timbal, B.; Brun, E.
1996-12-01
A downscaling method was developed to simulate the seasonal snow cover of the French Alps from general circulation model outputs under various scenarios. It consists of an analogue procedure, which associates a real meteorological situation to a model output. It is based on the comparison between simulated upper air fields and meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The selection uses a nearest neighbour method at a daily time-step. In a second phase, the snow cover is simulated by the snow model CROCUS at several elevations and in the different regions of the French Alps by using data from the real meteorological situations. The method is tested with real data and applied to various ARPEGE/Climat simulations: the present climate and two climate change scenarios.
Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.
2012-12-01
General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jelena Jovanović
2010-03-01
Full Text Available The research is oriented on improvement of environmental management system (EMS using BSC (Balanced Scorecard model that presents strategic model of measurem ents and improvement of organisational performance. The research will present approach of objectives and environmental management me trics involvement (proposed by literature review in conventional BSC in "Ad Barska plovi dba" organisation. Further we will test creation of ECO-BSC model based on business activities of non-profit organisations in order to improve envir onmental management system in parallel with other systems of management. Using this approach we may obtain 4 models of BSC that includ es elements of environmen tal management system for AD "Barska plovidba". Taking into acc ount that implementation and evaluation need long period of time in AD "Barska plovidba", the final choice will be based on 14598 (Information technology - Software product evaluation and ISO 9126 (Software engineering - Product quality using AHP method. Those standards are usually used for evaluation of quality software product and computer programs that serve in organisation as support and factors for development. So, AHP model will be bas ed on evolution criteria based on suggestion of ISO 9126 standards and types of evaluation from two evaluation teams. Members of team & will be experts in BSC and environmental management system that are not em ployed in AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation. The members of team 2 will be managers of AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation (including manage rs from environmental department. Merging results based on previously cr eated two AHP models, one can obtain the most appropriate BSC that includes elements of environmental management system. The chosen model will present at the same time suggestion for approach choice including ecological metrics in conventional BSC model for firm that has at least one ECO strategic orientation.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fleskens, Luuk; Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike
2012-01-01
Portuguese sites) a fire severity index under current conditions and under different technologies. The DESMICE model is informed by WB3 WOCAT database records, economic WB4 experimental results, additionally requested data on spatial variability of costs and benefits, and secondary data. It applies spatially...... multiple stakeholders in very different contexts into the modelling process, in order to enhance both the realism and relevance of outputs for policy and practice; b) site-selection modelling is being applied to land degradation mitigation to enable landscape-scale assessments of the most economically...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nillius, Peter, E-mail: nillius@mi.physics.kth.se; Klamra, Wlodek; Danielsson, Mats [Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm SE-100 44 (Sweden); Sibczynski, Pawel [National Centre for Nuclear Research, Otwock 05-400 (Poland); Sharma, Diksha; Badano, Aldo [Division of Imaging, Diagnostics, and Software Reliability, Office of Science and Engineering Laboratories, Center for Devices and Radiological Health, FDA, Silver Spring, Maryland 20993 (United States)
2015-02-15
Purpose: The authors report on measurements of light output and spatial resolution of microcolumnar CsI:Tl scintillator detectors for x-ray imaging. In addition, the authors discuss the results of simulations aimed at analyzing the results of synchrotron and sealed-source exposures with respect to the contributions of light transport to the total light output. Methods: The authors measured light output from a 490-μm CsI:Tl scintillator screen using two setups. First, the authors used a photomultiplier tube (PMT) to measure the response of the scintillator to sealed-source exposures. Second, the authors performed imaging experiments with a 27-keV monoenergetic synchrotron beam and a slit to calculate the total signal generated in terms of optical photons per keV. The results of both methods are compared to simulations obtained with hybridMANTIS, a coupled x-ray, electron, and optical photon Monte Carlo transport package. The authors report line response (LR) and light output for a range of linear absorption coefficients and describe a model that fits at the same time the light output and the blur measurements. Comparing the experimental results with the simulations, the authors obtained an estimate of the absorption coefficient for the model that provides good agreement with the experimentally measured LR. Finally, the authors report light output simulation results and their dependence on scintillator thickness and reflectivity of the backing surface. Results: The slit images from the synchrotron were analyzed to obtain a total light output of 48 keV{sup −1} while measurements using the fast PMT instrument setup and sealed-sources reported a light output of 28 keV{sup −1}. The authors attribute the difference in light output estimates between the two methods to the difference in time constants between the camera and PMT measurements. Simulation structures were designed to match the light output measured with the camera while providing good agreement with the
A Physics-Based Charge-Control Model for InP DHBT Including Current-Blocking Effect
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
GE Ji; JIN Zhi; SU Yong-Bo; CHENG Wei; WANG Xian-Wai; CHEN Gao-Peng; LIU Xin-Yu
2009-01-01
We develop a physics-based charge-control InP double heterojunction bipolar transistor model including three important effects: current blocking, mobile-charge modulation of the base-collector capacitance and velocity-field modulation in the transit time. The bias-dependent base-collector depletion charge is obtained analytically, which takes into account the mobile-charge modulation. Then, a measurement based voltage-dependent transit time formulation is implemented. As a result, over a wide range of biases, the developed model shows good agreement between the modeled and measured S-parameters and cutoff frequency. Also, the model considering current blocking effect demonstrates more accurate prediction of the output characteristics than conventional vertical bipolar inter company results.
Study on Input—output Model of Compliant Precise Micro—Location Spatial Stage
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
谢先海; 廖道训
2002-01-01
A precise micro-location compliant stage with elastics-supported system is enmployed for investigations.The general motion of stage supported by elastic structure is described.The analyses of forward displecement and inverse displacement of stage are formulated.The study of input-output behavior of compliant mechanisms actually belongs to a stress-strain field problem.By using finite element analysis.the compliance coefficients of the stage supported by ring are calculated.Finally,a case is inverstigated to exemplity these formulae.
Bossuyt, Juliaan; Howland, Michael F.; Meneveau, Charles; Meyers, Johan
2017-01-01
Unsteady loading and spatiotemporal characteristics of power output are measured in a wind tunnel experiment of a microscale wind farm model with 100 porous disk models. The model wind farm is placed in a scaled turbulent boundary layer, and six different layouts, varied from aligned to staggered, are considered. The measurements are done by making use of a specially designed small-scale porous disk model, instrumented with strain gages. The frequency response of the measurements goes up to the natural frequency of the model, which corresponds to a reduced frequency of 0.6 when normalized by the diameter and the mean hub height velocity. The equivalent range of timescales, scaled to field-scale values, is 15 s and longer. The accuracy and limitations of the acquisition technique are documented and verified with hot-wire measurements. The spatiotemporal measurement capabilities of the experimental setup are used to study the cross-correlation in the power output of various porous disk models of wind turbines. A significant correlation is confirmed between streamwise aligned models, while staggered models show an anti-correlation.
Caviness, V. S. Jr; Goto, T.; Tarui, T.; Takahashi, T.; Bhide, P. G.; Nowakowski, R. S.
2003-01-01
The neurons of the neocortex are generated over a 6 day neuronogenetic interval that comprises 11 cell cycles. During these 11 cell cycles, the length of cell cycle increases and the proportion of cells that exits (Q) versus re-enters (P) the cell cycle changes systematically. At the same time, the fate of the neurons produced at each of the 11 cell cycles appears to be specified at least in terms of their laminar destination. As a first step towards determining the causal interrelationships of the proliferative process with the process of laminar specification, we present a two-pronged approach. This consists of (i) a mathematical model that integrates the output of the proliferative process with the laminar fate of the output and predicts the effects of induced changes in Q and P during the neuronogenetic interval on the developing and mature cortex and (ii) an experimental system that allows the manipulation of Q and P in vivo. Here we show that the predictions of the model and the results of the experiments agree. The results indicate that events affecting the output of the proliferative population affect both the number of neurons produced and their specification with regard to their laminar fate.
Ebert-Uphoff, I.; Hammerling, D.; Samarasinghe, S.; Baker, A. H.
2015-12-01
The framework of causal discovery provides algorithms that seek to identify potential cause-effect relationships from observational data. The output of such algorithms is a graph structure that indicates the potential causal connections between the observed variables. Originally developed for applications in the social sciences and economics, causal discovery has been used with great success in bioinformatics and, most recently, in climate science, primarily to identify interaction patterns between compound climate variables and to track pathways of interactions between different locations around the globe. Here we apply causal discovery to the output data of climate models to learn so-called causal signatures from the data that indicate interactions between the different atmospheric variables. These causal signatures can act like fingerprints for the underlying dynamics and thus serve a variety of diagnostic purposes. We study the use of the causal signatures for three applications: 1) For climate model software verification we suggest to use causal signatures as a means of detecting statistical differences between model runs, thus identifying potential errors and supplementing the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Testing (CESM-ECT) tool recently developed at NCAR for CESM verification. 2) In the context of data compression of model runs, we will test how much the causal signatures of the model outputs changes after different compression algorithms have been applied. This may result in additional means to determine which type and amount of compression is acceptable. 3) This is the first study applying causal discovery simultaneously to a large number of different atmospheric variables, and in the process of studying the resulting interaction patterns for the two aforementioned applications, we expect to gain some new insights into their relationships from this approach. We will present first results obtained for Applications 1 and 2 above.
Comparison of nine theoretical models for estimating the mechanical power output in cycling
González‐Haro, Carlos; Ballarini, P A Galilea; Soria, M; Drobnic, F; Escanero, J F
2007-01-01
Objective To assess which of the equations used to estimate mechanical power output for a wide aerobic range of exercise intensities gives the closest value to that measured with the SRM training system. Methods Thirty four triathletes and endurance cyclists of both sexes (mean (SD) age 24 (5) years, height 176.3 (6.6) cm, weight 69.4 (7.6) kg and Vo2max 61.5 (5.9) ml/kg/min) performed three incremental tests, one in the laboratory and two in the velodrome. The mean mechanical power output measured with the SRM training system in the velodrome tests corresponding to each stage of the tests was compared with the values theoretically estimated using the nine most referenced equations in literature (Whitt (Ergonomics 1971;14:419–24); Di Prampero et al (J Appl Physiol 1979;47:201–6); Whitt and Wilson (Bicycling science. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1982); Kyle (Racing with the sun. Philadelphia: Society of Automotive Engineers, 1991:43–50); Menard (First International Congress on Science and Cycling Skills, Malaga, 1992); Olds et al (J Appl Physiol 1995;78:1596–611; J Appl Physiol 1993;75:730–7); Broker (USOC Sport Science and Technology Report 1–24, 1994); Candau et al (Med Sci Sports Exerc 1999;31:1441–7)). This comparison was made using the mean squared error of prediction, the systematic error and the random error. Results The equations of Candau et al, Di Prampero et al, Olds et al (J Appl Physiol 1993;75:730–7) and Whitt gave a moderate mean squared error of prediction (12.7%, 21.6%, 13.2% and 16.5%, respectively) and a low random error (0.5%, 0.6%, 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively). Conclusions The equations of Candau et al and Di Prampero et al give the best estimate of mechanical power output when compared with measurements obtained with the SRM training system. PMID:17341588
Integrated Water and CGE Model of the Impacts of Water Policy on the Beijing's Economy and Output
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Xia Jun; Deng Qun; Sun Yangbo
2010-01-01
The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy.Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.
Ferreira, J.-P.; Ramos, P.; Cruz, L.; Barata, E.
2017-10-01
The paper suggests a modeling approach for assessing economic and social impacts of changes in urban forms and commuting patterns that extends a multi-regional input-output framework by incorporating a set of commuting-related consequences. The Lisbon Metropolitan Area case with an urban re-centralization scenario is used as an example to illustrate the relevance of this modeling approach for analyzing commuting-related changes in regional income distribution on the one side and in household consumption structures on the other.
Site compare scripts and output
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Monthly site compare scripts and output used to generate the model/ob plots and statistics in the manuscript. The AQS hourly site compare output files are not...
2012-09-01
ATMOSPHERIC MODELS INCLUDING ENSEMBLE METHODS Scott E. Miller Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., University of South Carolina, 2000 B.S...Typical gas turbine fuel consumption curve and relationship to sea state .......51 Figure 16. DDG 58 speed reduction curves for bow seas...Day Time Group ECDIS-N Electronic Chart Display and Information System – Navy ECMWF European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts EFAS
Simulating river discharge in a snowy region of Japan using output from a regional climate model
Ma, X.; Kawase, H.; Adachi, S.; Fujita, M.; Takahashi, H. G.; Hara, M.; Ishizaki, N.; Yoshikane, T.; Hatsushika, H.; Wakazuki, Y.; Kimura, F.
2013-07-01
Snowfall amounts have fallen sharply along the eastern coast of the Sea of Japan since the mid-1980s. Toyama Prefecture, located approximately in the center of the Japan Sea region, includes high mountains of the northern Japanese Alps on three of its sides. The scarcity of meteorological observation points in mountainous areas limits the accuracy of hydrological analysis. With the development of computing technology, a dynamical downscaling method is widely applied into hydrological analysis. In this study, we numerically modeled river discharge using runoff data derived by a regional climate model (4.5-km spatial resolution) as input data to river networks (30-arcseconds resolution) for the Toyama Prefecture. The five main rivers in Toyama (the Oyabe, Sho, Jinzu, Joganji, and Kurobe rivers) were selected in this study. The river basins range in area from 368 to 2720 km2. A numerical experiment using climate comparable to that at present was conducted for the 1980s and 1990s. The results showed that seasonal river discharge could be represented and that discharge was generally overestimated compared with measurements, except for Oyabe River discharge, which was always underestimated. The average correlation coefficient for 10-year average monthly mean discharge was 0.8, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.56 to 0.88 for all five rivers, whereas the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient indicated that the simulation accuracy was insufficient. From the water budget analysis, it was possible to speculate that the lack of accuracy of river discharge may be caused by insufficient accuracy of precipitation simulation.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weekly biophysical and fish model output of FEAST. Part of The Bering Sea Project, FEAST is a high resolution (~10km2) spatial model that uses a Regional Ocean...
Knijnenburg, Theo A.; Klau, Gunnar W.; Iorio, Francesco; Garnett, Mathew J.; McDermott, Ultan; Shmulevich, Ilya; Wessels, Lodewyk F. A.
2016-01-01
Mining large datasets using machine learning approaches often leads to models that are hard to interpret and not amenable to the generation of hypotheses that can be experimentally tested. We present ‘Logic Optimization for Binary Input to Continuous Output’ (LOBICO), a computational approach that infers small and easily interpretable logic models of binary input features that explain a continuous output variable. Applying LOBICO to a large cancer cell line panel, we find that logic combinations of multiple mutations are more predictive of drug response than single gene predictors. Importantly, we show that the use of the continuous information leads to robust and more accurate logic models. LOBICO implements the ability to uncover logic models around predefined operating points in terms of sensitivity and specificity. As such, it represents an important step towards practical application of interpretable logic models. PMID:27876821
Knijnenburg, Theo A.; Klau, Gunnar W.; Iorio, Francesco; Garnett, Mathew J.; McDermott, Ultan; Shmulevich, Ilya; Wessels, Lodewyk F. A.
2016-11-01
Mining large datasets using machine learning approaches often leads to models that are hard to interpret and not amenable to the generation of hypotheses that can be experimentally tested. We present ‘Logic Optimization for Binary Input to Continuous Output’ (LOBICO), a computational approach that infers small and easily interpretable logic models of binary input features that explain a continuous output variable. Applying LOBICO to a large cancer cell line panel, we find that logic combinations of multiple mutations are more predictive of drug response than single gene predictors. Importantly, we show that the use of the continuous information leads to robust and more accurate logic models. LOBICO implements the ability to uncover logic models around predefined operating points in terms of sensitivity and specificity. As such, it represents an important step towards practical application of interpretable logic models.
Ollendorf, Daniel A; Pearson, Steven D
2014-01-01
Economic modeling has rarely been considered to be an essential component of healthcare policy-making in the USA, due to a lack of transparency in model design and assumptions, as well as political interests that equate examination of cost with unfair rationing. The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review has been involved in several efforts to bring economic modeling into public discussion of the comparative value of healthcare interventions, efforts that have evolved over time to suit the needs of multiple public forums. In this article, we review these initiatives and present a template that attempts to 'unpack' model output and present the major drivers of outcomes and cost. We conclude with a series of recommendations for effective presentation of economic models to US policy-makers.
Hinckley, Sarah; Parada, Carolina; Horne, John K.; Mazur, Michael; Woillez, Mathieu
2016-10-01
Biophysical individual-based models (IBMs) have been used to study aspects of early life history of marine fishes such as recruitment, connectivity of spawning and nursery areas, and marine reserve design. However, there is no consistent approach to validating the spatial outputs of these models. In this study, we hope to rectify this gap. We document additions to an existing individual-based biophysical model for Alaska walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), some simulations made with this model and methods that were used to describe and compare spatial output of the model versus field data derived from ichthyoplankton surveys in the Gulf of Alaska. We used visual methods (e.g. distributional centroids with directional ellipses), several indices (such as a Normalized Difference Index (NDI), and an Overlap Coefficient (OC), and several statistical methods: the Syrjala method, the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, and a geostatistical method for comparing spatial indices. We assess the utility of these different methods in analyzing spatial output and comparing model output to data, and give recommendations for their appropriate use. Visual methods are useful for initial comparisons of model and data distributions. Metrics such as the NDI and OC give useful measures of co-location and overlap, but care must be taken in discretizing the fields into bins. The Getis-Ord Gi* statistic is useful to determine the patchiness of the fields. The Syrjala method is an easily implemented statistical measure of the difference between the fields, but does not give information on the details of the distributions. Finally, the geostatistical comparison of spatial indices gives good information of details of the distributions and whether they differ significantly between the model and the data. We conclude that each technique gives quite different information about the model-data distribution comparison, and that some are easy to apply and some more complex. We also give recommendations for
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reichert, B.K.; Bengtsson, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Aakesson, O. [Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)
1998-08-01
Recent proxy data obtained from ice core measurements, dendrochronology and valley glaciers provide important information on the evolution of the regional or local climate. General circulation models integrated over a long period of time could help to understand the (external and internal) forcing mechanisms of natural climate variability. For a systematic interpretation of in situ paleo proxy records, a combined method of dynamical and statistical modeling is proposed. Local 'paleo records' can be simulated from GCM output by first undertaking a model-consistent statistical downscaling and then using a process-based forward modeling approach to obtain the behavior of valley glaciers and the growth of trees under specific conditions. The simulated records can be compared to actual proxy records in order to investigate whether e.g. the response of glaciers to climatic change can be reproduced by models and to what extent climate variability obtained from proxy records (with the main focus on the last millennium) can be represented. For statistical downscaling to local weather conditions, a multiple linear forward regression model is used. Daily sets of observed weather station data and various large-scale predictors at 7 pressure levels obtained from ECMWF reanalyses are used for development of the model. Daily data give the closest and most robust relationships due to the strong dependence on individual synoptic-scale patterns. For some local variables, the performance of the model can be further increased by developing seasonal specific statistical relationships. The model is validated using both independent and restricted predictor data sets. The model is applied to a long integration of a mixed layer GCM experiment simulating pre-industrial climate variability. The dynamical-statistical local GCM output within a region around Nigardsbreen glacier, Norway is compared to nearby observed station data for the period 1868-1993. Patterns of observed
Robust Optimal Output Tracking Control of A Midwater Trawl System Based on T-S Fuzzy Nonlinear Model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHOU Hua; CHEN Ying-long; YANG Hua-yong
2013-01-01
A robust optimal output tracking control method for a midwater trawl system is investigated based on T-S fuzzy nonlinear model.A simplified nonlinear mathematical model is first employed to represent a midwater trawl system,and then a T-S fuzzy model is adopted to approximate the nonlinear system.Since the strong nonlinearities and the external disturbance of the trawling system,a mixed H2/H∞ fuzzy output tracking control strategy via T-S fuzzy system is proposed to regulate the trawl depth to follow a desired trajectory.The trawl depth can be regulated by adjusting the winch velocity automatically and the tracking error can be minimized according to the robust optimal criterion.In order to validate the proposed control method,a computer simulation is conducted.The simulation results indicate that the proposed fuzzy robust optimal controller make the trawl net rapidly follow the desired trajectory under the model uncertainties and the external disturbance caused by wave and current.
Atlantis Modeled Output Data for the Coral Reef Ecosystems of Guam
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis Coral Reef Ecosystem Model has been developed and an added coral module to the Atlantis framework has been validated. The model is...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muayad Al-Qaisy
2013-04-01
Full Text Available In this article, multi-input multi-output (MIMO linear model predictive controller (LMPC based on state space model and nonlinear model predictive controller based on neural network (NNMPC are applied on a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR. The idea is to have a good control system that will be able to give optimal performance, reject high load disturbance, and track set point change. In order to study the performance of the two model predictive controllers, MIMO Proportional-Integral-Derivative controller (PID strategy is used as benchmark. The LMPC, NNMPC, and PID strategies are used for controlling the residual concentration (CA and reactor temperature (T. NNMPC control shows a superior performance over the LMPC and PID controllers by presenting a smaller overshoot and shorter settling time.
Input-Output Modeling and Control of the Departure Process of Congested Airports
Pujet, Nicolas; Delcaire, Bertrand; Feron, Eric
2003-01-01
A simple queueing model of busy airport departure operations is proposed. This model is calibrated and validated using available runway configuration and traffic data. The model is then used to evaluate preliminary control schemes aimed at alleviating departure traffic congestion on the airport surface. The potential impact of these control strategies on direct operating costs, environmental costs and overall delay is quantified and discussed.
Mathematical modeling of output power in RF-excited CO2 waveguide lasers
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2003-01-01
Theoretical analysis model has been established for CO2 laser to describe the process of dynamic emission in the electrooptically Q-switched laser .The electron excitation and the energy-transfer of vibration level and the rotational relaxation of rotational levels are described. The comparison between this model and a set of coupled rat equations model are discussed.
Benjamin, Stan; Sun, Shan; Grell, Georg; Green, Benjamin; Bleck, Rainer; Li, Haiqin
2017-04-01
Extreme events for subseasonal duration have been linked to multi-week processes related to onset, duration, and cessation of blocking events or, more generally, quasi-stationary waves. Results will be shown from different sets of 32-day prediction experiments (3200 runs each) over a 16-year period for earth system processes key for subseasonal prediction for different resolution, numerics, and physics using the FIM-HYCOM coupled model. The coupled atmosphere (FIM) and ocean (HYCOM) modeling system is a relatively new coupled atmosphere-ocean model developed for subseasonal to seasonal prediction (Green et al. 2017 Mon.Wea.Rev. accepted, Bleck et al 2015 Mon. Wea. Rev.). Both component models operate on a common icosahedral horizontal grid and use an adaptive hybrid vertical coordinate (sigma-isentropic in FIM and sigma-isopycnic in HYCOM). FIM-HYCOM has been used to conduct 16 years of subseasonal retrospective forecasts following the NOAA Subseasonal (SubX) NMME protocol (32-day forward integrations), run with 4 ensemble members per week. Results from this multi-year FIM-HYCOM hindcast include successful forecasts out to 14-20 days for stratospheric warming events (from archived 10 hPa fields), improved MJO predictability (Green et al. 2017) using the Grell-Freitas (2014, ACP) scale-aware cumulus scheme instead of the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme, and little sensitivity to resolution for blocking frequency. Forecast skill of metrics from FIM-HYCOM including 500 hPa heights and MJO index is at least comparable to that of the operational Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) used by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Subseasonal skill is improved with a limited multi-model (FIM-HYCOM and CFSv2), consistent with previous seasonal multi-model ensemble results. Ongoing work will also be reported on for adding inline aerosol/chemistry treatment to the coupled FIM-HYCOM model and for advanced approaches to subgrid-scale clouds to address regional biases
Depositional ''cyclicity'' on carbonate platforms: Real-world limits on computer-model output
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boss, S.K.; Neumann, A.C. (Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)); Rasmussen, K.A. (Northern Virginia Community Coll., Annandale, VA (United States))
1994-03-01
Computer-models which attempt to define interactions among dynamic parameters believed to influence the development of ''cyclic'' carbonate platform sequences have been popularized over the past few years. These models typically utilize vectors for subsidence (constant) and cyclical (sinusoidal) eustatic sea-level to create accommodation space which is filled by sedimentation (depth-dependent rates) following an appropriate lag time (non-depositional episode during initial platform flooding). Since these models are intended to reflect general principles of cyclic carbonate deposition, it is instructive to test their predictive utility by comparing typical model outputs with an actively evolving depositional cycle on a modern carbonate platform where rates of subsidence, eustatic sea-level and sediment accumulation are known. Holocene carbonate deposits across northern Great Bahama Bank provide such an ideal test-platform for model-data comparisons. On Great Bahama Bank, formation of accommodation space depends on eustatic sea-level rise because tectonic subsidence is very slow. Contrary to typical model input parameters, however, the rate of formation of accommodation space varies irregularly across the bank-top because irregular bank-top topography (produced by subaerial erosion and karstification) results in differential flooding of the platform surface. Results of this comparison indicate that typical computer-model input variables (subsidence, sea-level, sedimentation, lag-time) and output depositional geometries are poorly correlated with real depositional patterns across Great Bahama Bank. Since other modern carbonate platforms and ancient carbonate sequences display similarly complex stratigraphies, it is suggested that present computer-modeling results have little predictive value for stratigraphic interpretation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Riyadh G. Omar
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Four-leg voltage source inverter is an evolution of the three-leg inverter, and was ought about by the need to handle the non-linear and unbalanced loads. In this work Matlab/ Simulink model is presented using space vector modulation technique. Simulation results for worst conditions of unbalanced linear and non-linear loads are obtained. Observation for the continuity of the fundamental inverter output voltages vector in stationary coordinate is detected for better performance. Matlab programs are executed in block functions to perform switching vector selection and space vector switching.
Tournier, Jean-Michel; El-Genk, Mohamed S.
1995-01-01
This report describes the user's manual for 'HPTAM,' a two-dimensional Heat Pipe Transient Analysis Model. HPTAM is described in detail in the UNM-ISNPS-3-1995 report which accompanies the present manual. The model offers a menu that lists a number of working fluids and wall and wick materials from which the user can choose. HPTAM is capable of simulating the startup of heat pipes from either a fully-thawed or frozen condition of the working fluid in the wick structure. The manual includes instructions for installing and running HPTAM on either a UNIX, MS-DOS or VMS operating system. Samples for input and output files are also provided to help the user with the code.
Zhou, Qin; Ames, Peter; Parkinson, John S.
2009-01-01
SUMMARY To test the gearbox model of HAMP signaling in the E. coli serine receptor, Tsr, we generated a series of amino acid replacements at each residue of the AS1 and AS2 helices. The residues most critical for Tsr function defined hydrophobic packing faces consistent with a 4-helix bundle. Suppression patterns of helix lesions conformed to the the predicted packing layers in the bundle. Although the properties and patterns of most AS1 and AS2 lesions were consistent with both proposed gearbox structures, some mutational features specifically indicate the functional importance of an x-da bundle over an alternative a-d bundle. These genetic data suggest that HAMP signaling could simply involve changes in the stability of its x-da bundle. We propose that Tsr HAMP controls output signals by modulating destabilizing phase clashes between the AS2 helices and the adjoining kinase control helices. Our model further proposes that chemoeffectors regulate HAMP bundle stability through a control cable connection between the transmembrane segments and AS1 helices. Attractant stimuli, which cause inward piston displacements in chemoreceptors, should reduce cable tension, thereby stabilizing the HAMP bundle. This study shows how transmembrane signaling and HAMP input-output control could occur without the helix rotations central to the gearbox model. PMID:19656294
Embodied water analysis for Hebei Province, China by input-output modelling
Liu, Siyuan; Han, Mengyao; Wu, Xudong; Wu, Xiaofang; Li, Zhi; Xia, Xiaohua; Ji, Xi
2016-12-01
With the accelerating coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, regional economic integration is recognized as a national strategy. As water scarcity places Hebei Province in a dilemma, it is of critical importance for Hebei Province to balance water resources as well as make full use of its unique advantages in the transition to sustainable development. To our knowledge, related embodied water accounting analysis has been conducted for Beijing and Tianjin, while similar works with the focus on Hebei are not found. In this paper, using the most complete and recent statistics available for Hebei Province, the embodied water use in Hebei Province is analyzed in detail. Based on input-output analysis, it presents a complete set of systems accounting framework for water resources. In addition, a database of embodied water intensity is proposed which is applicable to both intermediate inputs and final demand. The result suggests that the total amount of embodied water in final demand is 10.62 billion m3, of which the water embodied in urban household consumption accounts for more than half. As a net embodied water importer, the water embodied in the commodity trade in Hebei Province is 17.20 billion m3. The outcome of this work implies that it is particularly urgent to adjust industrial structure and trade policies for water conservation, to upgrade technology and to improve water utilization. As a result, to relieve water shortages in Hebei Province, it is of crucial importance to regulate the balance of water use within the province, thus balancing water distribution in the various industrial sectors.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper introduces a novel Markov process formulation of stochastic fault growth modeling, in order to facilitate the development and analysis of...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. Jahanshah
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Problem statement: High cost of the solar cells is one of the important limitations in extensively using of the photovoltaic panels. Thin monocrystalline silicon solar cell could be reduce the cost but lost the absorption efficiency. Surface texturing help to enhance absorption. Using of advance texturing by diffraction grating was suggested for high absorption. It is necessary to investigate the scattering effect of diffraction grating with other solar cell parameter for optimization. In first step we concentrate on p-n junction position impact by modeling. Approach: The effect of position of p-n junction on the output current for both micro rectangular texturing and planer surface in solar cell has been investigated by ray tracing. Modeling of nine pairs solar cells with the same texture and planer surfaces but with different p-n junction position are done by using Atlas software. The output short current is a criterion for determining of efficiency performance. By comparing of the short current for each pair we was find the impacts of texturing and p-n junction depth on the monocrystalline thin film. Results: Light scattering due to diffraction grating inside the silicon with rectangular depth of 5 µm and a range of 5-40 µm p-n junction depths are investigated. The difference of short current in textured to bare silicon showed the enhancement from 4-8 µA when the p-n junction depths vary from 5-45 µm. Conclusions: Comparison of short current output confirms the correlation between p-n junction depth and texturing. Advanced texturing improve the solar cell efficiency but the effectiveness change with the p-n junction depth and need a simultaneous optimization for getting the high efficiency solar cell.
Karimi, H R; Babazadeh, A
2005-10-01
This paper deals with modeling and adaptive output tracking of a transverse flux permanent magnet machine as a nonlinear system with unknown nonlinearities by utilizing high gain observer and radial basis function networks. The proposed model is developed based on computing the permeance between rotor and stator using quasiflux tubes. Based on this model, the techniques of feedback linearization and Hinfinity control are used to design an adaptive control law for compensating the unknown nonlinear parts, such as the effect of cogging torque, as a disturbance is decreased onto the rotor angle and angular velocity tracking performances. Finally, the capability of the proposed method in tracking both the angle and the angular velocity is shown in the simulation results.
An Evacuation Emergency Response Model Coupling Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability Output.
1983-01-10
concentration contours coupled with the SMI evacuation model were calculated by using the MATHEW and ADPIC codes. The evacuation emergency response...2 M ATH EW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 2 ADPIC ...CDC 7600 computer within a matter of minutes MATHEW and ADPIC codes. These two models after the computer center is notified, are described briefly
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hans Schermeyer
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.
Governmentally amplified output volatility
Funashima, Yoshito
2016-11-01
Predominant government behavior is decomposed by frequency into several periodic components: updating cycles of infrastructure, Kuznets cycles, fiscal policy over business cycles, and election cycles. Little is known, however, about the theoretical impact of such cyclical behavior in public finance on output fluctuations. Based on a standard neoclassical growth model, this study intends to examine the frequency at which public investment cycles are relevant to output fluctuations. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between output volatility and length of cycle in public investment. This implies that periodic behavior in public investment at a certain frequency range can cause aggravated output resonance. Moreover, we present an empirical analysis to test the theoretical implication, using the U.S. data in the period from 1968 to 2015. The empirical results suggest that such resonance phenomena change from low to high frequency.
Bioenergetics model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...
Food web model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...
SIMULATING MODEL OF SYSTEM FOR MAXIMUM OUTPUT POWER OF SOLAR BATTERY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdul Majid Al-Khatib
2005-01-01
Full Text Available Simulating model and algorithm for control of electric power converter of a solar battery are proposed in the paper. Control device of D.C. step-down converter with pulse-width modulation is designed on microprocessor basis. Simulating model permits to investigate various operational modes of a solar battery, demonstrates a process with maximum power mode and is characterized by convenient user’s interface.
Berg, Matthew; Hartley, Brian; Richters, Oliver
2015-01-01
By synthesizing stock-flow consistent models, input-output models, and aspects of ecological macroeconomics, a method is developed to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. This paper highlights the linkages between the physical environment and the economic system by emphasizing the role of the energy industry. A conceptual model is developed in general form with an arbitrary number of sectors, while emphasizing connections with the agent-based, econophysics, and complexity economics literature. First, we use the model to challenge claims that 0% interest rates are a necessary condition for a stationary economy and conduct a stability analysis within the parameter space of interest rates and consumption parameters of an economy in stock-flow equilibrium. Second, we analyze the role of energy price shocks in contributing to recessions, incorporating several propagation and amplification mechanisms. Third, implied heat emissions from energy conversion and the effect of anthropogenic heat flux on climate change are considered in light of a minimal single-layer atmosphere climate model, although the model is only implicitly, not explicitly, linked to the economic model.
Radhakrishnan, A.; Balaji, V.; Schweitzer, R.; Nikonov, S.; O'Brien, K.; Vahlenkamp, H.; Burger, E. F.
2016-12-01
There are distinct phases in the development cycle of an Earth system model. During the model development phase, scientists make changes to code and parameters and require rapid access to results for evaluation. During the production phase, scientists may make an ensemble of runs with different settings, and produce large quantities of output, that must be further analyzed and quality controlled for scientific papers and submission to international projects such as the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). During this phase, provenance is a key concern:being able to track back from outputs to inputs. We will discuss one of the paths taken at GFDL in delivering tools across this lifecycle, offering on-demand analysis of data by integrating the use of GFDL's in-house FRE-Curator, Unidata's THREDDS and NOAA PMEL's Live Access Servers (LAS).Experience over this lifecycle suggests that a major difficulty in developing analysis capabilities is only partially the scientific content, but often devoted to answering the questions "where is the data?" and "how do I get to it?". "FRE-Curator" is the name of a database-centric paradigm used at NOAA GFDL to ingest information about the model runs into an RDBMS (Curator database). The components of FRE-Curator are integrated into Flexible Runtime Environment workflow and can be invoked during climate model simulation. The front end to FRE-Curator, known as the Model Development Database Interface (MDBI) provides an in-house web-based access to GFDL experiments: metadata, analysis output and more. In order to provide on-demand visualization, MDBI uses Live Access Servers which is a highly configurable web server designed to provide flexible access to geo-referenced scientific data, that makes use of OPeNDAP. Model output saved in GFDL's tape archive, the size of the database and experiments, continuous model development initiatives with more dynamic configurations add complexity and challenges in providing an on
Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods
Wilby, R. L.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Conway, D.; Jones, P. D.; Hewitson, B. C.; Main, J.; Wilks, D. S.
1998-11-01
A range of different statistical downscaling models was calibrated using both observed and general circulation model (GCM) generated daily precipitation time series and intercompared. The GCM used was the U.K. Meteorological Office, Hadley Centre's coupled ocean/atmosphere model (HadCM2) forced by combined CO2 and sulfate aerosol changes. Climate model results for 1980-1999 (present) and 2080-2099 (future) were used, for six regions across the United States. The downscaling methods compared were different weather generator techniques (the standard "WGEN" method, and a method based on spell-length durations), two different methods using grid point vorticity data as an atmospheric predictor variable (B-Circ and C-Circ), and two variations of an artificial neural network (ANN) transfer function technique using circulation data and circulation plus temperature data as predictor variables. Comparisons of results were facilitated by using standard sets of observed and GCM-derived predictor variables and by using a standard suite of diagnostic statistics. Significant differences in the level of skill were found among the downscaling methods. The weather generation techniques, which are able to fit a number of daily precipitation statistics exactly, yielded the smallest differences between observed and simulated daily precipitation. The ANN methods performed poorly because of a failure to simulate wet-day occurrence statistics adequately. Changes in precipitation between the present and future scenarios produced by the statistical downscaling methods were generally smaller than those produced directly by the GCM. Changes in daily precipitation produced by the GCM between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 were therefore judged not to be due primarily to changes in atmospheric circulation. In the light of these results and detailed model comparisons, suggestions for future research and model refinements are presented.
Input/output models for general aviation piston-prop aircraft fuel economy
Sweet, L. M.
1982-01-01
A fuel efficient cruise performance model for general aviation piston engine airplane was tested. The following equations were made: (1) for the standard atmosphere; (2) airframe-propeller-atmosphere cruise performance; and (3) naturally aspirated engine cruise performance. Adjustments are made to the compact cruise performance model as follows: corrected quantities, corrected performance plots, algebraic equations, maximize R with or without constraints, and appears suitable for airborne microprocessor implementation. The following hardwares are recommended: ignition timing regulator, fuel-air mass ration controller, microprocessor, sensors and displays.
Hamdy, M; Hamdan, I
2015-07-01
In this paper, a robust H∞ fuzzy output feedback controller is designed for a class of affine nonlinear systems with disturbance via Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy bilinear model. The parallel distributed compensation (PDC) technique is utilized to design a fuzzy controller. The stability conditions of the overall closed loop T-S fuzzy bilinear model are formulated in terms of Lyapunov function via linear matrix inequality (LMI). The control law is robustified by H∞ sense to attenuate external disturbance. Moreover, the desired controller gains can be obtained by solving a set of LMI. A continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR), which is a benchmark problem in nonlinear process control, is discussed in detail to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach with a comparative study.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains output of a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik
2012-01-01
and GLUE advocators who consider errors as epistemic, arguing that the basis of formal statistical approaches that requires the residuals to be stationary and conform to a statistical distribution is unrealistic. In this paper we take a formal frequentist approach to parameter estimation and uncertainty...... evaluation of the modelled output, and we attach particular importance to inspecting the residuals of the model outputs and improving the model uncertainty description. We also introduce the probabilistic performance measures sharpness, reliability and interval skill score for model comparison...... on the SDE method and the skill scoring criterion proved that significant predictive improvements of the output can be gained from updating the states continuously. In an effort to attain residual stationarity for both the output error method and the SDE method transformation of the observations were...
2012-09-01
of similar stochastic modeling techniques, are given in Banjevic and Jardine (2006). The state transition probabilities in a Markov process descrip...Technology, and Dr Kai Goebel, Director of the Prognostics Center of Excellence at NASA AMES. REFERENCES Banjevic, D., & Jardine , A. (2006). Calculation of
Persis, Claudio De; Jayawardhana, Bayu
2012-01-01
The role of internal model principle is investigated in this paper in the context of collective synchronization and formation control problems. In the collective synchronization problem for nonlinear systems, we propose distributed control laws for passive systems which synchronize to the solution o
Persis, Claudio De; Jayawardhana, Bayu
2012-01-01
The role of internal model principle is investigated in this paper in the context of collective synchronization and formation control problems. In the collective synchronization problem for nonlinear systems, we propose distributed control laws for passive systems which synchronize to the solution o
Persis, Claudio De; Jayawardhana, Bayu
2012-01-01
The role of internal model principle is investigated in this paper in the context of collective synchronization and formation control problems. In the collective synchronization problem for nonlinear systems, we propose distributed control laws for passive systems which synchronize to the solution
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sutikno Sutikno
2010-08-01
Full Text Available One of the climate models used to predict the climatic conditions is Global Circulation Models (GCM. GCM is a computer-based model that consists of different equations. It uses numerical and deterministic equation which follows the physics rules. GCM is a main tool to predict climate and weather, also it uses as primary information source to review the climate change effect. Statistical Downscaling (SD technique is used to bridge the large-scale GCM with a small scale (the study area. GCM data is spatial and temporal data most likely to occur where the spatial correlation between different data on the grid in a single domain. Multicollinearity problems require the need for pre-processing of variable data X. Continuum Regression (CR and pre-processing with Principal Component Analysis (PCA methods is an alternative to SD modelling. CR is one method which was developed by Stone and Brooks (1990. This method is a generalization from Ordinary Least Square (OLS, Principal Component Regression (PCR and Partial Least Square method (PLS methods, used to overcome multicollinearity problems. Data processing for the station in Ambon, Pontianak, Losarang, Indramayu and Yuntinyuat show that the RMSEP values and R2 predict in the domain 8x8 and 12x12 by uses CR method produces results better than by PCR and PLS.
Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models
Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom
2012-01-01
The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Geyer
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study is to derive a realistic estimation of the Surface Mass Balance (SMB of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS through statistical downscaling of Global Coupled Model (GCM outputs. To this end, climate simulations performed with the CNRM-CM5.1 Atmosphere-Ocean GCM within the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 framework are used for the period 1850–2300. From the year 2006, two different emission scenarios are considered (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulations of SMB performed with the detailed snowpack model Crocus driven by CNRM-CM5.1 surface atmospheric forcings serve as a reference. On the basis of these simulations, statistical relationships between total precipitation, snow-ratio, snowmelt, sublimation and near-surface air temperature are established. This leads to the formulation of SMB variation as a function of temperature variation. Based on this function, a downscaling technique is proposed in order to refine 150 km horizontal resolution SMB output from CNRM-CM5.1 to a 15 km resolution grid. This leads to a much better estimation of SMB along the GrIS margins, where steep topography gradients are not correctly represented at low-resolution. For the recent past (1989–2008, the integrated SMB over the GrIS is respectively 309 and 243 Gt yr–1 for raw and downscaled CNRM-CM5.1. In comparison, the Crocus snowpack model forced with ERA-Interim yields a value of 245 Gt yr–1. The major part of the remaining discrepancy between Crocus and downscaled CNRM-CM5.1 SMB is due to the different snow albedo representation. The difference between the raw and the downscaled SMB tends to increase with near-surface air temperature via an increase in snowmelt.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dr Onuke Oscar Sunny
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract The study dwelt on the problem of developing manpower supply for establishing new industries more especially an engineering program for generating the skills required for a refinery project. A mathematical programming model was developed for planning the establishment of a new manpower system such as Nigeria would be establishing in the next several decades. The manpower planning model developed here deals with the problem of how to optimize the process of developing new skills so that they are available as needed during the process of setting up new industries especially in the sector of developing economy. Many developmental projects in the public sector of Nigeria are now leveled up for lack of trained manpower. The method developed will also estimate the probable availability of skills required and plan to meet the shortfalls if any.
Output from Statistical Predictive Models as Input to eLearning Dashboards
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marlene A. Smith
2015-06-01
Full Text Available We describe how statistical predictive models might play an expanded role in educational analytics by giving students automated, real-time information about what their current performance means for eventual success in eLearning environments. We discuss how an online messaging system might tailor information to individual students using predictive analytics. The proposed system would be data-driven and quantitative; e.g., a message might furnish the probability that a student will successfully complete the certificate requirements of a massive open online course. Repeated messages would prod underperforming students and alert instructors to those in need of intervention. Administrators responsible for accreditation or outcomes assessment would have ready documentation of learning outcomes and actions taken to address unsatisfactory student performance. The article’s brief introduction to statistical predictive models sets the stage for a description of the messaging system. Resources and methods needed to develop and implement the system are discussed.
Hodgson, John A.; Chi, Sheng-Wei; Yang, Judy P.; Chen, Jiun-Shyan; Edgerton, V. Reggie; Sinha, Shantanu
2012-01-01
The pattern of deformation of the different structural components of a muscle-tendon complex when it is activated provides important information about the internal mechanics of the muscle. Recent experimental observations of deformations in contracting muscle have presented inconsistencies with current widely held assumption about muscle behavior. These include negative strain in aponeuroses, non-uniform strain changes in sarcomeres, even of individual muscle fibers and evidence that muscle f...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hongzhi Hu
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the modeling of fault for analog circuits. A two-dimensional (2D fault model is first proposed based on collaborative analysis of supply current and output voltage. This model is a family of circle loci on the complex plane, and it simplifies greatly the algorithms for test point selection and potential fault simulations, which are primary difficulties in fault diagnosis of analog circuits. Furthermore, in order to reduce the difficulty of fault location, an improved fault model in three-dimensional (3D complex space is proposed, which achieves a far better fault detection ratio (FDR against measurement error and parametric tolerance. To address the problem of fault masking in both 2D and 3D fault models, this paper proposes an effective design for testability (DFT method. By adding redundant bypassing-components in the circuit under test (CUT, this method achieves excellent fault isolation ratio (FIR in ambiguity group isolation. The efficacy of the proposed model and testing method is validated through experimental results provided in this paper.
Model Predictive Current Control for High-Power Grid-Connected Converters with Output LCL Filter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Delpino, Hernan Anres Miranda; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro
2009-01-01
A model predictive control strategy for a highpower, grid connected 3-level neutral clamped point converter is presented. Power losses constraints set a limit on commutation losses so reduced switching frequency is required, thus producing low frequency current harmonics. To reduce these harmonics...... an LCL filter is used. The proposed control strategy allows control of the active and reactive power fed into the grid, reduce the switching frequency within acceptable operational margins and keep balance of the DC-link capacitor voltages while avoiding excitation of the filter resonance frequencies....
Van Pelt, S.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Allen, D. M.
2015-12-01
The decline of the Mayan Civilization is thought to be caused by a series of droughts that affected the Yucatan Peninsula during the Terminal Classic Period (T.C.P.) 800-1000 AD. The goals of this study are two-fold: (a) to compare paleo-model simulations of the past 1000 years with a compilation of multiple proxies of changes in moisture conditions for the Yucatan Peninsula during the T.C.P. and (b) to use this comparison to inform the modeling of groundwater recharge in this region, with a focus on generating the daily climate data series needed as input to a groundwater recharge model. To achieve the first objective, we compiled a dataset of 5 proxies from seven locations across the Yucatan Peninsula, to be compared with temperature and precipitation output from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4), which is part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) past1000 experiment. The proxy dataset includes oxygen isotopes from speleothems and gastropod/ostrocod shells (11 records); and sediment density, mineralogy, and magnetic susceptibility records from lake sediment cores (3 records). The proxy dataset is supplemented by a compilation of reconstructed temperatures using pollen and tree ring records for North America (archived in the PAGES2k global network data). Our preliminary analysis suggests that many of these datasets show evidence of drier and warmer climate on the Yucatan Peninsula around the T.C.P. when compared to modern conditions, although the amplitude and timing of individual warming and drying events varies between sites. This comparison with modeled output will ultimately be used to inform backward shift factors that will be input to a stochastic weather generator. These shift factors will be based on monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and applied to a modern daily climate time series for the Yucatan Peninsula to produce a daily climate time series for the T.C.P.
The Deep Crust Magmatic Refinery, Part 2 : The Magmatic Output of Numerical Models.
Bouilhol, P.; Riel, N., Jr.; Van Hunen, J.
2016-12-01
Metamorphic and magmatic processes occurring in the deep crust ultimately control the chemical and physical characteristic of the continental crust. A complex interplay between magma intrusion, crystallization, and reaction with the pre-existing crust provide a wide range of differentiated magma and cumulates (and / or restites) that will feed the upper crustal levels with evolved melt while constructing the lower crust. With growing evidence from field and experimental studies, it becomes clearer that crystallization and melting processes are non-exclusive but should be considered together. Incoming H2O bearing mantle melts will start to fractionate to a certain extent, forming cumulates but also releasing heat and H2O to the intruded host-rock allowing it to melt in saturated conditions. The end-result of such dynamic system is a function of the amount and composition of melt input, and extent of reaction with the host which is itself dependent on the migration mode of the melts. To better constrain lower crust processes, we have built up a numerical model [see Riel et al. associated abstract for methods] to explore different parameters, unravelling the complex interplay between melt percolation / crystallization and degassing / re-melting in a so called "hot zone" model. We simulated the intrusion of water bearing mantle melts at the base of an amphibolitized lower crust during a magmatic event that lasts 5 Ma. We varied several parameters such as Moho depth and melt rock ratio to better constrain what controls the final melt / lower crust composition.. We show the evolution of the chemical characteristics of the melt that escape the system during this magmatic event, as well as the resulting lower crust characteristics. We illustrate how the evolution of melt major elements composition reflects the progressive replacement of the crust towards compositions that are dominated by the mantle melt input. The resulting magmas cover a wide range of composition from
Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R
2016-05-01
Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management.
Qing, Chun; Wu, Xiaoqing; Li, Xuebin; Zhu, Wenyue; Qiao, Chunhong; Rao, Ruizhong; Mei, Haipin
2016-06-13
The methods to obtain atmospheric refractive index structure constant (Cn2) by instrument measurement are limited spatially and temporally and they are more difficult and expensive over the ocean. It is useful to forecast Cn2 effectively from Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) outputs. This paper introduces a method that WRF Model is used to forecast the routine meteorological parameters firstly, and then Cn2 is calculated based on these parameters by the Bulk model from the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) over the ocean near-surface. The corresponding Cn2 values measured by the micro-thermometer which is placed on the ship are compared with the ones forecasted by WRF model to determine how this method performs. The result shows that the forecasted Cn2 is consistent with the measured Cn2 in trend and the order of magnitude as a whole, as well as the correlation coefficient is up to 77.57%. This method can forecast some essential aspects of Cn2 and almost always captures the correct magnitude of Cn2, which experiences fluctuations of two orders of magnitude. Thus, it seems to be a feasible and meaningful method that using WRF model to forecast near-surface Cn2 value over the ocean.
Fathy, Alaa; Sabry, Yasser M.; Khalil, Diaa A.
2017-10-01
Multimode fibers (MMF) have many applications in illumination, spectroscopy, sensing and even in optical communication systems. In this work, we present a model for the MMF output field assuming the fiber end as a quasi-homogenous source. The fiber end is modeled by a group of partially coherent elementary sources, spatially shifted and uncorrelated with each other. The elementary source distribution is derived from the far field intensity measurement, while the weighting function of the sources is derived from the fiber end intensity measurement. The model is compared with practical measurements for fibers with different core/cladding diameters at different propagation distances and for different input excitations: laser, white light and LED. The obtained results show normalized root mean square error less than 8% in the intensity profile in most cases, even when the fiber end surface is not perfectly cleaved. Also, the comparison with the Gaussian–Schell model results shows a better agreement with the measurement. In addition, the complex degree of coherence, derived from the model results, is compared with the theoretical predictions of the modified Van Zernike equation showing very good agreement, which strongly supports the assumption that the large core MMF could be considered as a quasi-homogenous source.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Paeth, Heiko [University of Wuerzburg, Institute of Geography, Wuerzburg (Germany)
2011-04-15
Rainfall represents an important factor in agriculture and food security, particularly, in the low latitudes. Climatological and hydrological studies which attempt to diagnose the hydrological cycle, require high-quality precipitation data. In West Africa, like in many parts of the world, the density of observational data is low and climate models are needed in order to perform homogeneous and complete data sets. However, climate models tend to produce systematic errors, especially, in terms of rainfall and cloud processes, which are usually approximated by physical parameterizations. In this study, a 25-year climatology of monthly precipitation in West Africa is presented, derived from a regional climate model simulation, and evaluated with respect to observational data. It is found that the model systematically underestimates the rainfall amount and variability and does not capture some details of the seasonal cycle in sub-Saharan West Africa. Thus, in its present form the precipitation climatology is not appropriate to draw a realistic picture of the hydrological cycle in West Africa nor to serve as input data for impact research. Therefore, a statistical model is developed in order to adjust the simulated rainfall data to the characteristics of observed precipitation. Assuming that the regional climate model is much more reliable in terms of atmospheric circulation and thermodynamics, model output statistics is used to correct simulated rainfall by means of other simulated parameters of the near-surface climate like temperature, sea level pressure and wind components. Monthly data is adjusted by a cross-validated multiple regression model. The resulting adjusted rainfall climatology reveals a substantial improvement in terms of the model deficiencies mentioned above. In part II of this publication, the characteristics of simulated daily precipitation is adapted to station data by applying a weather generator. Once the postprocessing approach is trained, it can
Anomalies of Siberian High Intensity and Their Precursors in Climatic Models Output
Martynova, Yuliya; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir
2016-04-01
The Siberian High (SH) is a powerful pressure system that determines the weather regime during the wintertime for the huge part of Asia [Sazonov B.I., 1991]. Particularly, SH regulates an intensity and duration of frosts in Siberia. Moreover, this pressure system has a strong connection with another atmospheric centers of action of the Northern Hemisphere such as Arctic High, Icelandic Low, the Azores High [Morozova S.V., 2013]. SH variation is closely related to atmospheric dynamics processes and air temperature variations between surface and middle troposphere. The maintaining of SH mainly depends on downward through the troposphere airflow which variation is strongly affected by the Arctic oscillation (AO). Positive (negative) AO phase causes the remarkably weakening (strengthening) of the downward airflow that has strong effect on the SH behavior [Gong G. et al., 2002; Krupchatnikov V. N. et al., 2009; Martynova Yu.V. and V.N. Krupchatnikov, 2010]. SH is highly exposed to global climate change that increases standard deviation of SH intensity [Fei L.I. and G. A. O. Yong-Qi, 2015]. The changes of SH characteristics result from not only direct climate change effect (such as global temperature rise) but also feedback effect of another climate system parameters variation. Thus, these parameters can serve as precursors of the extremely SH intensity. It's important to remember that the changes of the just one component of this High-Low interaction system could affect whole system. This study is devoted to determination of the precursors of the anomaly SH behavior and estimation of changes of the determined connection in the climate change conditions. The research was provided on a base of climate system models and reanalysis data. Acknowledgements This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grants 14-05-00502, 16-35-00301, 16-05-00558. References Fei L.I. and G. A. O. Yong-Qi The Project Siberian High in CMIP5 Models // Atmospheric and
Jia, Jun; Li, Bo; Sun, Zuo-Li; Yu, Fen; Wang, Xuan; Wang, Xiao-Min
2010-04-01
The role of electro-acupuncture (EA) stimulation on motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD) has not been well studied. In a rat hemiparkinsonian model induced by unilateral transection of the medial forebrain bundle (MFB), EA stimulation improved motor impairment in a frequency-dependent manner. Whereas EA stimulation at a low frequency (2 Hz) had no effect, EA stimulation at a high frequency (100 Hz) significantly improved motor coordination. However, neither low nor high EA stimulation could significantly enhance dopamine levels in the striatum. EA stimulation at 100 Hz normalized the MFB lesion-induced increase in midbrain GABA content, but it had no effect on GABA content in the globus pallidus. These results suggest that high-frequency EA stimulation improves motor impairment in MFB-lesioned rats by increasing GABAergic inhibition in the output structure of the basal ganglia.
The stability of input structures in a supply-driven input-output model: A regional analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Allison, T.
1994-06-01
Disruptions in the supply of strategic resources or other crucial factor inputs often present significant problems for planners and policymakers. The problem may be particularly significant at the regional level where higher levels of product specialization mean supply restrictions are more likely to affect leading regional industries. To maintain economic stability in the event of a supply restriction, regional planners may therefore need to evaluate the importance of market versus non-market systems for allocating the remaining supply of the disrupted resource to the region`s leading consuming industries. This paper reports on research that has attempted to show that large short term changes on the supply side do not lead to substantial changes in input coefficients and do not therefore mean the abandonment of the concept of the production function as has been suggested (Oosterhaven, 1988). The supply-driven model was tested for six sectors of the economy of Washington State and found to yield new input coefficients whose values were in most cases close approximations of their original values, even with substantial changes in supply. Average coefficient changes from a 50% output reduction in these six sectors were in the vast majority of cases (297 from a total of 315) less than +2.0% of their original values, excluding coefficient changes for the restricted input. Given these small changes, the most important issue for the validity of the supply-driven input-output model may therefore be the empirical question of the extent to which these coefficient changes are acceptable as being within the limits of approximation.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bergami, L.; Gaunaa, M.
2012-02-15
The report presents the ATEFlap aerodynamic model, which computes the unsteady lift, drag and moment on a 2D airfoil section equipped with Adaptive Trailing Edge Flap. The model captures the unsteady response related to the effects of the vorticity shed into the wake, and the dynamics of flow separation a thin-airfoil potential flow model is merged with a dynamic stall model of the Beddoes-Leishmann type. The inputs required by the model are steady data for lift, drag, and moment coefficients as function of angle of attack and flap deflection. Further steady data used by the Beddoes- Leishmann dynamic stall model are computed in an external preprocessor application, which gives the user the possibility to verify, and eventually correct, the steady data passed to the aerodynamic model. The ATEFlap aerodynamic model is integrated in the aeroelastic simulation tool HAWC2, thus al- lowing to simulate the response of a wind turbine with trailing edge flaps on the rotor. The algorithms used by the preprocessor, and by aerodynamic model are presented, and modifications to previous implementations of the aerodynamic model are briefly discussed. The performance and the validity of the model are verified by comparing the dynamic response computed by the ATEFlap with solutions from CFD simulations. (Author)
Ott, Irena; Lutz, Karin; Rathmann, Joachim; Jacobeit, Jucundus
2013-04-01
Two types of El Niño-like events are described in the South Atlantic: the Atlantic Niño in the equatorial Atlantic and the Benguela Niño off the Namibian and Angolan coast. These warm water events are known to be associated with rainfall anomalies at the West and Southwest African coastal region and harm marine ecosystems and fish populations. The two phenomena are handled separately so far, but the identification of warm water events in our study - via similar variabilities of sea surface temperatures (SST) - based on observed SST data (HadISST1.1) as well as global climate model output from CMIP5, involved the definition of an area mean index that includes both Niño types from the Atlantic region. A multi-model ensemble of the CMIP5 output is used to investigate the impact of Atlantic Niño events on regional atmospheric conditions. Based on the Atlantic SST index, composite analyses give information about anomalous precipitation, air pressure, humidity, evaporation, horizontal wind and vertical air motion patterns over the African continent and the South Atlantic. The Atlantic variability mode is similar to the Pacific El Niño system, but more irregular and less intense. However, recent studies show that the Atlantic influences the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean by the modification of the Walker and Hadley circulations and associated wind stress, thermocline and SST anomalies, further amplified by the Bjerknes positive feedback. As a result, an Atlantic Niño is followed by a La Niña-like phenomenon in the Pacific area with a lag of six months. In our study, the CMIP5 output is considered with respect to its ability of describing the complex connection between the Atlantic and Pacific variability modes. For that purpose, the inter-ocean teleconnection is studied with correlation analyses of the ensemble members of the CMIP5 output by means of the Atlantic index, the Southern Oscillation (SOI) and the Pacific El Niño indices (Ni
Jackson, B Scott
2004-10-01
Many different types of integrate-and-fire models have been designed in order to explain how it is possible for a cortical neuron to integrate over many independent inputs while still producing highly variable spike trains. Within this context, the variability of spike trains has been almost exclusively measured using the coefficient of variation of interspike intervals. However, another important statistical property that has been found in cortical spike trains and is closely associated with their high firing variability is long-range dependence. We investigate the conditions, if any, under which such models produce output spike trains with both interspike-interval variability and long-range dependence similar to those that have previously been measured from actual cortical neurons. We first show analytically that a large class of high-variability integrate-and-fire models is incapable of producing such outputs based on the fact that their output spike trains are always mathematically equivalent to renewal processes. This class of models subsumes a majority of previously published models, including those that use excitation-inhibition balance, correlated inputs, partial reset, or nonlinear leakage to produce outputs with high variability. Next, we study integrate-and-fire models that have (nonPoissonian) renewal point process inputs instead of the Poisson point process inputs used in the preceding class of models. The confluence of our analytical and simulation results implies that the renewal-input model is capable of producing high variability and long-range dependence comparable to that seen in spike trains recorded from cortical neurons, but only if the interspike intervals of the inputs have infinite variance, a physiologically unrealistic condition. Finally, we suggest a new integrate-and-fire model that does not suffer any of the previously mentioned shortcomings. By analyzing simulation results for this model, we show that it is capable of producing output
Comparing terrestrial, satellite, and ecosystem model output data for the Batéké Plateau, Gabon.
Fletcher, Charlotte; Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan
2010-05-01
Productivity estimates hold an important role in decision making processes involving carbon sequestration and ecosystem management. They are also an integrated part of our efforts in understanding the effects of climate change on ecosystems. Yet exhaustive measurements of Net Primary Production (NPP) are difficult to accomplish, and the relationship between site-level and ecosystem model biomass estimates, and satellite and ecosystem model NPP estimates, is, as yet, not clearly defined. Past research undertaken in Austria suggests that (i) satellite-driven NPP estimates are similar to those of the ecosystem model's self-initialisation which represents potential NPP; (ii) NPP derived from field observations are correlated to the model results on actual ecosystem NPP; and (iii) correlations between satellite-derived versus terrestrial estimates are relatively poor. This study builds on the above-mentioned research within a different environmental context. Correlations between terrestrial data-driven biomass and NPP estimates and those derived from satellite imagery and an ecosystem model are analysed for the Batéké Plateau, Gabon - an area of savannah grasslands in the Congo basin. The biomass and NPP outputs of a biogeochemical (BGC) ecosystem model will be compared with biomass estimates calculated from field data, and NPP estimates as derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) available on the internet, respectively. One potential reason offered for the lack of correlation between satellite-derived and terrestrial estimates of NPP is that the different estimation methods act on different scales. Indeed, prior results indicate that satellite and terrestrial estimates are more highly correlated for homogenous landscapes compared to ‘patchy' landscapes. The Batéké Plateau has a more homogenous landscape compared to the intensively managed, patchwork landscape of Austria. It is therefore predicted that this study will show stronger
Importance of global aerosol modeling including secondary organic aerosol formed from monoterpene
Goto, Daisuke; Takemura, Toshihiko; Nakajima, Teruyuki
2008-01-01
A global three-dimensional aerosol transport-radiation model, coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), has been extended to improve the model process for organic aerosols, particularly secondary organic aerosols (SOA), and to estimate SOA contributions to direct and indirect radiative effects. Because the SOA formation process is complicated and unknown, the results in different model simulations include large differences. In this work, we simulate SOA production assuming v...
MODEL ANALYSIS AND PARAMETER EXTRACTION FOR MOS CAPACITOR INCLUDING QUANTUM MECHANICAL EFFECTS
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Hai-yan Jiang; Ping-wen Zhang
2006-01-01
The high frequency CV curves of MOS capacitor have been studied. It is shown that semiclassical model is a good approximation to quantum model and approaches to classical model when the oxide layer is thick. This conclusion provides us an efficient (semiclassical) model including quantum mechanical effects to do parameter extraction for ultrathi noxide device. Here the effective extracting strategy is designed and numerical experiments demonstrate the validity of the strategy.
Hallegatte, Stéphane
2008-06-01
This article proposes a new modeling framework to investigate the consequences of natural disasters and the following reconstruction phase. Based on input-output tables, its originalities are (1) the taking into account of sector production capacities and of both forward and backward propagations within the economic system; and (2) the introduction of adaptive behaviors. The model is used to simulate the response of the economy of Louisiana to the landfall of Katrina. The model is found consistent with available data, and provides two important insights. First, economic processes exacerbate direct losses, and total costs are estimated at $149 billion, for direct losses equal to $107 billion. When exploring the impacts of other possible disasters, it is found that total losses due to a disaster affecting Louisiana increase nonlinearly with respect to direct losses when the latter exceed $50 billion. When direct losses exceed $200 billion, for instance, total losses are twice as large as direct losses. For risk management, therefore, direct losses are insufficient measures of disaster consequences. Second, positive and negative backward propagation mechanisms are essential for the assessment of disaster consequences, and the taking into account of production capacities is necessary to avoid overestimating the positive effects of reconstruction. A systematic sensitivity analysis shows that, among all parameters, the overproduction capacity in the construction sector and the adaptation characteristic time are the most important.
A finite element model of the face including an orthotropic skin model under in vivo tension.
Flynn, Cormac; Stavness, Ian; Lloyd, John; Fels, Sidney
2015-01-01
Computer models of the human face have the potential to be used as powerful tools in surgery simulation and animation development applications. While existing models accurately represent various anatomical features of the face, the representation of the skin and soft tissues is very simplified. A computer model of the face is proposed in which the skin is represented by an orthotropic hyperelastic constitutive model. The in vivo tension inherent in skin is also represented in the model. The model was tested by simulating several facial expressions by activating appropriate orofacial and jaw muscles. Previous experiments calculated the change in orientation of the long axis of elliptical wounds on patients' faces for wide opening of the mouth and an open-mouth smile (both 30(o)). These results were compared with the average change of maximum principal stress direction in the skin calculated in the face model for wide opening of the mouth (18(o)) and an open-mouth smile (25(o)). The displacements of landmarks on the face for four facial expressions were compared with experimental measurements in the literature. The corner of the mouth in the model experienced the largest displacement for each facial expression (∼11-14 mm). The simulated landmark displacements were within a standard deviation of the measured displacements. Increasing the skin stiffness and skin tension generally resulted in a reduction in landmark displacements upon facial expression.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wenlan Ke
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Water resource and environment capacity have become two of the most important restrictions for sustainable development in resource-based cities whose leading industries are the exploitation and processing of resources. Taking Ordos in China as an example, this article constructs an integrated model combining a multi-objective optimization model with input–output analysis to achieve the tradeoffs between economic growth, water utilization and environmental protection. This dynamic model includes socioeconomic, water supply–demand, water quality control, air quality control, energy consumption control and integrated policy sub-models. These six sub-models interact with each other. After simulation, this article proposes efficient solutions on industrial restructuring by maximizing the Gross Regional Product of Ordos from 394.3 in 2012 to 785.1 billion RMB in 2025 with a growth rate of 6.4% annually; and presents a water supply plan by maximizing the proportion of reclaimed water from 2% to 6.3% through sewage treatment technology selection and introduction, and effective water allocation. Meanwhile, the environmental impacts are all in line with the planning targets. This study illustrates that the integrated modeling is generic and can be applied to any region suffering uncoordinated development issues and can serve as a pre-evaluation approach for conducting early warning research to offer suggestions for government decision-making.
Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen
2012-11-01
SummaryWhile there seems to be consensus that hydrological model outputs should be accompanied with an uncertainty estimate the appropriate method for uncertainty estimation is not agreed upon and a debate is ongoing between advocators of formal statistical methods who consider errors as stochastic and GLUE advocators who consider errors as epistemic, arguing that the basis of formal statistical approaches that requires the residuals to be stationary and conform to a statistical distribution is unrealistic. In this paper we take a formal frequentist approach to parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation of the modelled output, and we attach particular importance to inspecting the residuals of the model outputs and improving the model uncertainty description. We also introduce the probabilistic performance measures sharpness, reliability and interval skill score for model comparison and for checking the reliability of the confidence bounds. Using point rainfall and evaporation data as input and flow measurements from a sewer system for model conditioning, a state space model is formulated that accounts for three different flow contributions: wastewater from households, and fast rainfall-runoff from paved areas and slow rainfall-dependent infiltration-inflow from unknown sources. We consider two different approaches to evaluate the model output uncertainty, the output error method that lumps all uncertainty into the observation noise term, and a method based on Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) that separates input and model structure uncertainty from observation uncertainty and allows updating of model states in real-time. The results show that the optimal simulation (off-line) model is based on the output error method whereas the optimal prediction (on-line) model is based on the SDE method and the skill scoring criterion proved that significant predictive improvements of the output can be gained from updating the states continuously. In an effort to
Perceptual-center modeling is affected by including acoustic rate-of-change modulations.
Harsin, C A
1997-02-01
This study investigated the acoustic correlates of perceptual centers (p-centers) in CV and VC syllables and developed an acoustic p-center model. In Part 1, listeners located syllables' p-centers by a method-of-adjustment procedure. The CV syllables contained the consonants /s/,/r/,/n/,/t/,/d/,/k/, and /g/; the VCs, the consonants /s/,/r/, and /n/. The vowel in all syllables was /a/. The results of this experiment replicated and extended previous findings regarding the effects of phonetic variation on p-centers. In Part 2, a digital signal processing procedure was used to acoustically model p-center perception. Each stimulus was passed through a six-band digital filter, and the outputs were processed to derive low-frequency modulation components. These components were weighted according to a perceived modulation magnitude function and recombined to create six psychoacoustic envelopes containing modulation energies from 3 to 47 Hz. In this analysis, p-centers were found to be highly correlated with the time-weighted function of the rate-of-change in the psychoacoustic envelopes, multiplied by the psychoacoustic envelope magnitude increment. The results were interpreted as suggesting (1) the probable role of low-frequency energy modulations in p-center perception, and (2) the presence of perceptual processes that integrate multiple articulatory events into a single syllabic event.
Hot DA white dwarf model atmosphere calculations: Including improved Ni PI cross sections
Preval, S P; Badnell, N R; Hubeny, I; Holberg, J B
2016-01-01
To calculate realistic models of objects with Ni in their atmospheres, accurate atomic data for the relevant ionization stages needs to be included in model atmosphere calculations. In the context of white dwarf stars, we investigate the effect of changing the Ni {\\sc iv}-{\\sc vi} bound-bound and bound-free atomic data has on model atmosphere calculations. Models including PICS calculated with {\\sc autostructure} show significant flux attenuation of up to $\\sim 80$\\% shortward of 180\\AA\\, in the EUV region compared to a model using hydrogenic PICS. Comparatively, models including a larger set of Ni transitions left the EUV, UV, and optical continua unaffected. We use models calculated with permutations of this atomic data to test for potential changes to measured metal abundances of the hot DA white dwarf G191-B2B. Models including {\\sc autostructure} PICS were found to change the abundances of N and O by as much as $\\sim 22$\\% compared to models using hydrogenic PICS, but heavier species were relatively unaf...
Mathematical Model of Thyristor Inverter Including a Series-parallel Resonant Circuit
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miroslaw Luft
2008-01-01
Full Text Available The article presents a mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit with theaid of state variable method. Maple procedures are used to compute current and voltage waveforms in the inverter.
A Verilog-A large signal model for InP DHBT including thermal effects
Yuxia, Shi; Zhi, Jin; Zhijian, Pan; Yongbo, Su; Yuxiong, Cao; Yan, Wang
2013-06-01
A large signal model for InP/InGaAs double heterojunction bipolar transistors including thermal effects has been reported, which demonstrated good agreements of simulations with measurements. On the basis of the previous model in which the double heterojunction effect, current blocking effect and high current effect in current expression are considered, the effect of bandgap narrowing with temperature has been considered in transport current while a formula for model parameters as a function of temperature has been developed. This model is implemented by Verilog-A and embedded in ADS. The proposed model is verified with DC and large signal measurements.
Shykoff, Barbara E.; Swanson, Harvey T.
1987-01-01
A new method for correction of mass spectrometer output signals is described. Response-time distortion is reduced independently of any model of mass spectrometer behavior. The delay of the system is found first from the cross-correlation function of a step change and its response. A two-sided time-domain digital correction filter (deconvolution filter) is generated next from the same step response data using a regression procedure. Other data are corrected using the filter and delay. The mean squared error between a step response and a step is reduced considerably more after the use of a deconvolution filter than after the application of a second-order model correction. O2 consumption and CO2 production values calculated from data corrupted by a simulated dynamic process return to near the uncorrupted values after correction. Although a clean step response or the ensemble average of several responses contaminated with noise is needed for the generation of the filter, random noise of magnitude not above 0.5 percent added to the response to be corrected does not impair the correction severely.
Numerical Acoustic Models Including Viscous and Thermal losses: Review of Existing and New Methods
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Peter Risby; Cutanda Henriquez, Vicente; Aage, Niels
2017-01-01
This work presents an updated overview of numerical methods including acoustic viscous and thermal losses. Numerical modelling of viscothermal losses has gradually become more important due to the general trend of making acoustic devices smaller. Not including viscothermal acoustic losses in such...
The report gives results of activities relating to the Advanced Utility Simulation Model (AUSM): sensitivity testing. comparison with a mature electric utility model, and calibration to historical emissions. The activities were aimed at demonstrating AUSM's validity over input va...
Regan, R. Steve; LaFontaine, Jacob H.
2017-10-05
This report documents seven enhancements to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic simulation code: two time-series input options, two new output options, and three updates of existing capabilities. The enhancements are (1) new dynamic parameter module, (2) new water-use module, (3) new Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) summary output module, (4) new basin variables summary output module, (5) new stream and lake flow routing module, (6) update to surface-depression storage and flow simulation, and (7) update to the initial-conditions specification. This report relies heavily upon U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 6, chapter B7, which documents PRMS version 4 (PRMS-IV). A brief description of PRMS is included in this report.
Output Dynamics, Technology, and Public Investment
Duarte Bom, P.R.; Heijdra, B.J.; Ligthart, J.E.
2010-01-01
The paper studies the dynamic output effects of public infrastructure investment in a small open economy. We develop an overlapping generations model that includes a production externality of public capital and a wealth effect on labor supply. Public capital enters the firm's production function und
Muluneh, F. B.; Setegn, S. G.; Melesse, A. M.; Fiori, A.
2011-12-01
Quantification of the various components of hydrological processes in a watershed remains a challenging topic as the hydrological system is altered by many internal and external drivers. Changes in climate variables can affect the quantity and quality of various components of hydrological cycle. Among others, the local effects of climate change on groundwater resources were not fully studied in different part of the world as compared to the surface water. Moreover, understanding the potential impact of climate change on groundwater is more complex than surface water. The main objective of this study is to analyze the potential impact of climate change on Groundwater recharge in the Tiber River Basin using outputs from Regional Climate model. In this study, a physically-based watershed model called Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate recharge characteristics and its response to climate change in Tiber River Basin (central Italy). The SWAT model was successfully calibrated and validated using observed weather and flow data for the period of 1963-1970 and 1971-1978 respectively. During calibration, the model was highly sensitivity to groundwater flow parameters. Dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature datasets from ten Regional Climate Models (RCM) archived in 'Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE)' were used to force the model to assess the climate change impact on the study area. A quantile-mapping statistical correction procedure was applied to the RCM dataset to correct the inherent systematic biases. The climate change analysis indicated that by the end of 2080s the rainfall was found to decrease nearly up to 40% in dry period and there was an increase in temperature that could reach as high as 3 to 5 oC. By the end of 2080s the ground water recharge shows a decreasing trend as a response to changes in rainfall. However as the timing of both precipitation and
Inverter communications using output signal
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chapman, Patrick L.
2017-02-07
Technologies for communicating information from an inverter configured for the conversion of direct current (DC) power generated from an alternative source to alternating current (AC) power are disclosed. The technologies include determining information to be transmitted from the inverter over a power line cable connected to the inverter and controlling the operation of an output converter of the inverter as a function of the information to be transmitted to cause the output converter to generate an output waveform having the information modulated thereon.
Zhang, Huiyan; Wang, Yun; Shao, Shanshan; Xiao, Rui
2016-11-01
Lignin is the most difficult to be converted and most easy coking component in biomass catalytic pyrolysis to high-value liquid fuels and chemicals. Catalytic conversion of guaiacol as a lignin model compound was conducted in a fixed-bed reactor over ZSM-5 to investigate its conversion and coking behaviors. The effects of temperature, weight hourly space velocity (WHSV) and partial pressure on product distribution were studied. The results show the maximum aromatic carbon yield of 28.55% was obtained at temperature of 650 °C, WHSV of 8 h‑1 and partial pressure of 2.38 kPa, while the coke carbon yield was 19.55%. The reaction pathway was speculated to be removing methoxy group to form phenols with further aromatization to form aromatics. The amount of coke increased with increasing reaction time. The surface area and acidity of catalysts declined as coke formed on the acid sites and blocked the pore channels, which led to the decrease of aromatic yields. Finally, a kinetic model of guaiacol catalytic conversion considering coke deposition was built based on the above reaction pathway to properly predict product distribution. The experimental and model predicting data agreed well. The correlation coefficient of all equations were all higher than 0.90.
Including operational data in QMRA model: development and impact of model inputs.
Jaidi, Kenza; Barbeau, Benoit; Carrière, Annie; Desjardins, Raymond; Prévost, Michèle
2009-03-01
A Monte Carlo model, based on the Quantitative Microbial Risk Analysis approach (QMRA), has been developed to assess the relative risks of infection associated with the presence of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in drinking water. The impact of various approaches for modelling the initial parameters of the model on the final risk assessments is evaluated. The Monte Carlo simulations that we performed showed that the occurrence of parasites in raw water was best described by a mixed distribution: log-Normal for concentrations > detection limit (DL), and a uniform distribution for concentrations risks significantly. The mean annual risks for conventional treatment are: 1.97E-03 (removal credit adjusted by log parasite = log spores), 1.58E-05 (log parasite = 1.7 x log spores) or 9.33E-03 (regulatory credits based on the turbidity measurement in filtered water). Using full scale validated SCADA data, the simplified calculation of CT performed at the plant was shown to largely underestimate the risk relative to a more detailed CT calculation, which takes into consideration the downtime and system failure events identified at the plant (1.46E-03 vs. 3.93E-02 for the mean risk).
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
何雪松; 王旭永; 冯正进; 章志新; 杨钦廉
2003-01-01
A nonlinear mathematical model of the injection molding process for electrohydraulic servo injection molding machine (IMM) is developed.It was found necessary to consider the characteristics of asymmetric cylinder for electrohydraulic servo IMM.The model is based on the dynamics of the machine including servo valve,asymmetric cylinder and screw,and the non-Newtonian flow behavior of polymer melt in injection molding is also considered.The performance of the model was evaluated based on novel approach of molding - injection and compress molding,and the results of simulation and experimental data demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.
a Better Description of Liquid Jet Breakup Using a Spatial Model Including Viscous Effects.
Hammerschlag, William Brian
Theoretical models describing the operation and disintegration of a liquid jet are often based on an approximate solution of an inviscid jet in the temporal frame of reference. These models provide only a fair first order prediction of growth rate and breakoff length, and are based solely on a surface tension induced instability. A spatial model yielding jet growth rate and including both jet and surrounding atmosphere viscosity and density is now developed. This model is seen to reproduce all the features and limitations of the Weber viscous jet theory. When tested against experiments of water, water and glycerol mixes and binary eutectic tin/lead solder, only fair agreement is observed.
Olatinwo, Rabiu O; Prabha, Thara V; Paz, Joel O; Hoogenboom, Gerrit
2012-03-01
Early leaf spot of peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.), a disease caused by Cercospora arachidicola S. Hori, is responsible for an annual crop loss of several million dollars in the southeastern United States alone. The development of early leaf spot on peanut and subsequent spread of the spores of C. arachidicola relies on favorable weather conditions. Accurate spatio-temporal weather information is crucial for monitoring the progression of favorable conditions and determining the potential threat of the disease. Therefore, the development of a prediction model for mitigating the risk of early leaf spot in peanut production is important. The specific objective of this study was to demonstrate the application of the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for management of early leaf spot in peanut. We coupled high-resolution weather output of the WRF, i.e. relative humidity and temperature, with the Oklahoma peanut leaf spot advisory model in predicting favorable conditions for early leaf spot infection over Georgia in 2007. Results showed a more favorable infection condition in the southeastern coastline of Georgia where the infection threshold were met sooner compared to the southwestern and central part of Georgia where the disease risk was lower. A newly introduced infection threat index indicates that the leaf spot threat threshold was met sooner at Alma, GA, compared to Tifton and Cordele, GA. The short-term prediction of weather parameters and their use in the management of peanut diseases is a viable and promising technique, which could help growers make accurate management decisions, and lower disease impact through optimum timing of fungicide applications.
Olatinwo, Rabiu O.; Prabha, Thara V.; Paz, Joel O.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit
2012-03-01
Early leaf spot of peanut ( Arachis hypogaea L.), a disease caused by Cercospora arachidicola S. Hori, is responsible for an annual crop loss of several million dollars in the southeastern United States alone. The development of early leaf spot on peanut and subsequent spread of the spores of C. arachidicola relies on favorable weather conditions. Accurate spatio-temporal weather information is crucial for monitoring the progression of favorable conditions and determining the potential threat of the disease. Therefore, the development of a prediction model for mitigating the risk of early leaf spot in peanut production is important. The specific objective of this study was to demonstrate the application of the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for management of early leaf spot in peanut. We coupled high-resolution weather output of the WRF, i.e. relative humidity and temperature, with the Oklahoma peanut leaf spot advisory model in predicting favorable conditions for early leaf spot infection over Georgia in 2007. Results showed a more favorable infection condition in the southeastern coastline of Georgia where the infection threshold were met sooner compared to the southwestern and central part of Georgia where the disease risk was lower. A newly introduced infection threat index indicates that the leaf spot threat threshold was met sooner at Alma, GA, compared to Tifton and Cordele, GA. The short-term prediction of weather parameters and their use in the management of peanut diseases is a viable and promising technique, which could help growers make accurate management decisions, and lower disease impact through optimum timing of fungicide applications.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
QIU Zhi-qiang; ZOU Hai; SUN Jian-hua
2008-01-01
Parallel turbine-driven feedwater pumps are needed when ships travel at high speed. In order to study marine steam generator feedwater control systems which use parallel turbine-driven feed pumps,a mathematical model of marine steam generator feedwater control system was developed which includes mathematical models of two steam generators and parallel turbine-driven feed pumps as well as mathematical models of feedwater pipes and feed regulating valves. The operating condition points of the parallel turbine-driven feed pumps were calculated by the Chebyshev curve fit method. A water level controller for the steam generator and a rotary speed controller for the turbine-driven feed pumps were also included in the model. The accuracy of the mathematical models and their controllers was verified by comparing their results with those from a simulator.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Davis, J Lynn
2014-06-24
Abstract— Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have
Nijp, Jelmer J; Metselaar, Klaas; Limpens, Juul; Teutschbein, Claudia; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats B; Berendse, Frank; van der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M
2017-02-15
The water content of the topsoil is one of the key factors controlling biogeochemical processes, greenhouse gas emissions and biosphere - atmosphere interactions in many ecosystems, particularly in northern peatlands. In these wetland ecosystems, the water content of the photosynthetic active peatmoss layer is crucial for ecosystem functioning and carbon sequestration, and is sensitive to future shifts in rainfall and drought characteristics. Current peatland models differ in the degree in which hydrological feedbacks are included, but how this affects peatmoss drought projections is unknown. The aim of this paper was to systematically test whether the level of hydrological detail in models could bias projections of water content and drought stress for peatmoss in northern peatlands using downscaled projections for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in the current (1991-2020) and future climate (2061-2090). We considered four model variants that either include or exclude moss (rain)water storage and peat volume change, as these are two central processes in the hydrological self-regulation of peatmoss carpets. Model performance was validated using field data of a peatland in northern Sweden. Including moss water storage as well as peat volume change resulted in a significant improvement of model performance, despite the extra parameters added. The best performance was achieved if both processes were included. Including moss water storage and peat volume change consistently reduced projected peatmoss drought frequency with >50%, relative to the model excluding both processes. Projected peatmoss drought frequency in the growing season was 17% smaller under future climate than current climate, but was unaffected by including the hydrological self-regulating processes. Our results suggest that ignoring these two fine-scale processes important in hydrological self-regulation of northern peatlands will have large consequences for projected climate change impact on
Modeling an elastic beam with piezoelectric patches by including magnetic effects
Ozer, A O
2014-01-01
Models for piezoelectric beams using Euler-Bernoulli small displacement theory predict the dynamics of slender beams at the low frequency accurately but are insufficient for beams vibrating at high frequencies or beams with low length-to-width aspect ratios. A more thorough model that includes the effects of rotational inertia and shear strain, Mindlin-Timoshenko small displacement theory, is needed to predict the dynamics more accurately for these cases. Moreover, existing models ignore the magnetic effects since the magnetic effects are relatively small. However, it was shown recently \\cite{O-M1} that these effects can substantially change the controllability and stabilizability properties of even a single piezoelectric beam. In this paper, we use a variational approach to derive models that include magnetic effects for an elastic beam with two piezoelectric patches actuated by different voltage sources. Both Euler-Bernoulli and Mindlin-Timoshenko small displacement theories are considered. Due to the magne...
Stability analysis of the extended ADI-FDTD technique including lumped models
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
CHEN ZhiHui; CHU QingXin
2008-01-01
The numerical stability of the extended alternating-direction-implicit-finite-difference-time-domain (ADI-FDTD) method including lumped models is analyzed.Three common lumped models are investigated:resistor,capacitor,and inductor,and three different formulations for each model are analyzed:the explicit,semi-implicit and implicit schemes.Analysis results show that the extended ADI-FDTD algorithm is not unconditionally stable in the explicit scheme case,and the stability criterion depends on the value of lumped models,but in the semi-implicit and implicit cases,the algorithm is stable.Finally,two simple microstrip circuits including lumped elements are simulated to demonstrate validity of the theoretical results.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shengxiang Jia
2003-01-01
Full Text Available This article presents a dynamic model of three shafts and two pair of gears in mesh, with 26 degrees of freedom, including the effects of variable tooth stiffness, pitch and profile errors, friction, and a localized tooth crack on one of the gears. The article also details howgeometrical errors in teeth can be included in a model. The model incorporates the effects of variations in torsional mesh stiffness in gear teeth by using a common formula to describe stiffness that occurs as the gears mesh together. The comparison between the presence and absence of geometrical errors in teeth was made by using Matlab and Simulink models, which were developed from the equations of motion. The effects of pitch and profile errors on the resultant input pinion angular velocity coherent-signal of the input pinion's average are discussed by investigating some of the common diagnostic functions and changes to the frequency spectra results.
SAMI2-PE: A model of the ionosphere including multistream interhemispheric photoelectron transport
Varney, R. H.; Swartz, W. E.; Hysell, D. L.; Huba, J. D.
2012-06-01
In order to improve model comparisons with recently improved incoherent scatter radar measurements at the Jicamarca Radio Observatory we have added photoelectron transport and energy redistribution to the two dimensional SAMI2 ionospheric model. The photoelectron model uses multiple pitch angle bins, includes effects associated with curved magnetic field lines, and uses an energy degradation procedure which conserves energy on coarse, non-uniformly spaced energy grids. The photoelectron model generates secondary electron production rates and thermal electron heating rates which are then passed to the fluid equations in SAMI2. We then compare electron and ion temperatures and electron densities of this modified SAMI2 model with measurements of these parameters over a range of altitudes from 90 km to 1650 km (L = 1.26) over a 24 hour period. The new electron heating model is a significant improvement over the semi-empirical model used in SAMI2. The electron temperatures above the F-peak from the modified model qualitatively reproduce the shape of the measurements as functions of time and altitude and quantitatively agree with the measurements to within ˜30% or better during the entire day, including during the rapid temperature increase at dawn.
Cappellari, Michele
2015-01-01
Cappellari (2008) presented a flexible and efficient method to model the stellar kinematics of anisotropic axisymmetric and spherical stellar systems. The spherical formalism could be used to model the line-of-sight velocity second moments allowing for essentially arbitrary radial variation in the anisotropy and general luminous and total density profiles. Here we generalize the spherical formalism by providing the expressions for all three components of the projected second moments, including the two proper motion components. A reference implementation is now included in the public JAM package available at http://purl.org/cappellari/software
Modeling Within-Host Dynamics of Influenza Virus Infection Including Immune Responses
Pawelek, Kasia A.; Huynh, Giao T; Michelle Quinlivan; Ann Cullinane; Libin Rong; Perelson, Alan S.
2012-01-01
Influenza virus infection remains a public health problem worldwide. The mechanisms underlying viral control during an uncomplicated influenza virus infection are not fully understood. Here, we developed a mathematical model including both innate and adaptive immune responses to study the within-host dynamics of equine influenza virus infection in horses. By comparing modeling predictions with both interferon and viral kinetic data, we examined the relative roles of target cell availability, ...
A lumped element transformer model including core losses and winding impedances
Ribbenfjärd, David
2007-01-01
In order to design a power transformer it is important to understand its internal electromagnetic behaviour. That can be obtained by measurements on physical transformers, analytical expressions and computer simulations. One benefit with simulations is that the transformer can be studied before it is built physically and that the consequences of changing dimensions and parameters easily can be tested. In this thesis a time-domain transformer model is presented. The model includes core losses ...
Target echo strength modelling at FOI, including results from the BeTSSi II workshop
Östberg, Martin
2016-01-01
An overview of the target echo strength (TS) modelling capacity at the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI) is presented. The modelling methods described range from approximate ones, such as raytracing and Kirchhoff approximation codes, to high accuracy full field codes including boundary integral equation methods and finite elements methods. Illustrations of the applicability of the codes are given for a few simple cases tackled during the BeTTSi II (Benchmark Target Echo Strength Simulation) workshop held in Kiel 2014.
Including leakage in network models: an application to calibrate leak valves in EPANET
Cobacho Jordán, Ricardo; Arregui de la Cruz, Francisco; Soriano Olivares, Javier; Cabrera Rochera, Enrique
2015-01-01
EPANET is one of the most widely used software packages for water network hydraulic modelling, and is especially interesting for educational and research purposes because it is in the public domain. However, EPANET simulations are demand-driven, and the program does not include a specific functionality to model water leakage, which is pressure-driven. Consequently, users are required to deal with this drawback by themselves. As a general solution for this problem, this paper presents a method...
Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)
2015-05-15
The conventional PSA techniques cannot adequately evaluate all events. The conventional PSA models usually focus on single internal events such as DBAs, the external hazards such as fire, seismic. However, the Fukushima accident of Japan in 2011 reveals that very rare event is necessary to be considered in the PSA model to prevent the radioactive release to environment caused by poor treatment based on lack of the information, and to improve the emergency operation procedure. Especially, the results from PSA can be used to decision making for regulators. Moreover, designers can consider the weakness of plant safety based on the quantified results and understand accident sequence based on human actions and system availability. This study is for PSA modeling of combined accidents including total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) accident. The TLOFW accident is a representative accident involving the failure of cooling through secondary side. If the amount of heat transfer is not enough due to the failure of secondary side, the heat will be accumulated to the primary side by continuous core decay heat. Transients with loss of feedwater include total loss of feedwater accident, loss of condenser vacuum accident, and closure of all MSIVs. When residual heat removal by the secondary side is terminated, the safety injection into the RCS with direct primary depressurization would provide alternative heat removal. This operation is called feed and bleed (F and B) operation. Combined accidents including TLOFW accident are very rare event and partially considered in conventional PSA model. Since the necessity of F and B operation is related to plant conditions, the PSA modeling for combined accidents including TLOFW accident is necessary to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities.The PSA is significant to assess the risk of NPPs, and to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities. Even though the combined accident is very rare event, the consequence of combined
Hincapié, Doracelly; Ospina, Juan
2014-06-01
Recently, a mathematical model of pandemic influenza was proposed including typical control strategies such as antivirals, vaccination and school closure; and considering explicitly the effects of immunity acquired from the early outbreaks on the ulterior outbreaks of the disease. In such model the algebraic expression for the basic reproduction number (without control strategies) and the effective reproduction number (with control strategies) were derived and numerically estimated. A drawback of this model of pandemic influenza is that it ignores the effects of the differential susceptibility due to immunosuppression and the effects of the complexity of the actual contact networks between individuals. We have developed a generalized model which includes such effects of heterogeneity. Specifically we consider the influence of the air network connectivity in the spread of pandemic influenza and the influence of the immunosuppresion when the population is divided in two immune classes. We use an algebraic expression, namely the Tutte polynomial, to characterize the complexity of the contact network. Until now, The influence of the air network connectivity in the spread of pandemic influenza has been studied numerically, but not algebraic expressions have been used to summarize the level of network complexity. The generalized model proposed here includes the typical control strategies previously mentioned (antivirals, vaccination and school closure) combined with restrictions on travel. For the generalized model the corresponding reproduction numbers will be algebraically computed and the effect of the contact network will be established in terms of the Tutte polynomial of the network.
The No-Core Gamow Shell Model: Including the continuum in the NCSM
Barrett, B R; Michel, N; Płoszajczak, M
2015-01-01
We are witnessing an era of intense experimental efforts that will provide information about the properties of nuclei far from the line of stability, regarding resonant and scattering states as well as (weakly) bound states. This talk describes our formalism for including these necessary ingredients into the No-Core Shell Model by using the Gamow Shell Model approach. Applications of this new approach, known as the No-Core Gamow Shell Model, both to benchmark cases as well as to unstable nuclei will be given.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chen, Y W [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Zhang, L F [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Huang, J P [Surface Physics Laboratory and Department of Physics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China)
2007-07-20
By using theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we develop the Watts-Strogatz network model by including degree distribution, in an attempt to improve the comparison between characteristic path lengths and clustering coefficients predicted by the original Watts-Strogatz network model and those of the real networks with the small-world property. Good agreement between the predictions of the theoretical analysis and those of the computer simulations has been shown. It is found that the developed Watts-Strogatz network model can fit the real small-world networks more satisfactorily. Some other interesting results are also reported by adjusting the parameters in a model degree-distribution function. The developed Watts-Strogatz network model is expected to help in the future analysis of various social problems as well as financial markets with the small-world property.
Dynamics Analysis of an HIV Infection Model including Infected Cells in an Eclipse Stage
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shengyu Zhou
2013-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, an HIV infection model including an eclipse stage of infected cells is considered. Some quicker cells in this stage become productively infected cells, a portion of these cells are reverted to the uninfected class, and others will be latent down in the body. We consider CTL-response delay in this model and analyze the effect of time delay on stability of equilibrium. It is shown that the uninfected equilibrium and CTL-absent infection equilibrium are globally asymptotically stable for both ODE and DDE model. And we get the global stability of the CTL-present equilibrium for ODE model. For DDE model, we have proved that the CTL-present equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable in a range of delays and also have studied the existence of Hopf bifurcations at the CTL-present equilibrium. Numerical simulations are carried out to support our main results.
A statistical model including age to predict passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles.
Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J
2016-06-01
Few statistical models of rear seat passenger posture have been published, and none has taken into account the effects of occupant age. This study developed new statistical models for predicting passenger postures in the rear seats of automobiles. Postures of 89 adults with a wide range of age and body size were measured in a laboratory mock-up in seven seat configurations. Posture-prediction models for female and male passengers were separately developed by stepwise regression using age, body dimensions, seat configurations and two-way interactions as potential predictors. Passenger posture was significantly associated with age and the effects of other two-way interaction variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models are presented for women and men, and the prediction results are compared with previously published models. This study is the first study of passenger posture to include a large cohort of older passengers and the first to report a significant effect of age for adults. The presented models can be used to position computational and physical human models for vehicle design and assessment. Practitioner Summary: The significant effects of age, body dimensions and seat configuration on rear seat passenger posture were identified. The models can be used to accurately position computational human models or crash test dummies for older passengers in known rear seat configurations.
Kelly, Jeff; Betts, Juan Fernando; Fuller, Chris
2000-01-01
The study of normal impedance of perforated plate acoustic liners including the effect of bias flow was studied. Two impedance models were developed by modeling the internal flows of perforate orifices as infinite tubes with the inclusion of end corrections to handle finite length effects. These models assumed incompressible and compressible flows, respectively, between the far field and the perforate orifice. The incompressible model was used to predict impedance results for perforated plates with percent open areas ranging from 5% to 15%. The predicted resistance results showed better agreement with experiments for the higher percent open area samples. The agreement also tended to deteriorate as bias flow was increased. For perforated plates with percent open areas ranging from 1% to 5%, the compressible model was used to predict impedance results. The model predictions were closer to the experimental resistance results for the 2% to 3% open area samples. The predictions tended to deteriorate as bias flow was increased. The reactance results were well predicted by the models for the higher percent open area, but deteriorated as the percent open area was lowered (5%) and bias flow was increased. A fit was done on the incompressible model to the experimental database. The fit was performed using an optimization routine that found the optimal set of multiplication coefficients to the non-dimensional groups that minimized the least squares slope error between predictions and experiments. The result of the fit indicated that terms not associated with bias flow required a greater degree of correction than the terms associated with the bias flow. This model improved agreement with experiments by nearly 15% for the low percent open area (5%) samples when compared to the unfitted model. The fitted model and the unfitted model performed equally well for the higher percent open area (10% and 15%).
Fusion rules for the logarithmic $N=1$ superconformal minimal models II: including the Ramond sector
Canagasabey, Michael
2015-01-01
The Virasoro logarithmic minimal models were intensively studied by several groups over the last ten years with much attention paid to the fusion rules and the structures of the indecomposable representations that fusion generates. The analogous study of the fusion rules of the $N=1$ superconformal logarithmic minimal models was initiated in arXiv:1504.03155 as a continuum counterpart to the lattice explorations of arXiv:1312.6763. These works restricted fusion considerations to Neveu-Schwarz representations. Here, this is extended to include the Ramond sector. Technical advances that make this possible include a fermionic Verlinde formula applicable to logarithmic conformal field theories and a twisted version of the fusion algorithm of Nahm and Gaberdiel-Kausch. The results include the first construction and detailed analysis of logarithmic structures in the Ramond sector.
MEMLS3&a: Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks adapted to include backscattering
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Proksch
2015-08-01
Full Text Available The Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS was originally developed for microwave emissions of snowpacks in the frequency range 5–100 GHz. It is based on six-flux theory to describe radiative transfer in snow including absorption, multiple volume scattering, radiation trapping due to internal reflection and a combination of coherent and incoherent superposition of reflections between horizontal layer interfaces. Here we introduce MEMLS3&a, an extension of MEMLS, which includes a backscatter model for active microwave remote sensing of snow. The reflectivity is decomposed into diffuse and specular components. Slight undulations of the snow surface are taken into account. The treatment of like- and cross-polarization is accomplished by an empirical splitting parameter q. MEMLS3&a (as well as MEMLS is set up in a way that snow input parameters can be derived by objective measurement methods which avoid fitting procedures of the scattering efficiency of snow, required by several other models. For the validation of the model we have used a combination of active and passive measurements from the NoSREx (Nordic Snow Radar Experiment campaign in Sodankylä, Finland. We find a reasonable agreement between the measurements and simulations, subject to uncertainties in hitherto unmeasured input parameters of the backscatter model. The model is written in Matlab and the code is publicly available for download through the following website: http://www.iapmw.unibe.ch/research/projects/snowtools/memls.html.
MEMLS3&a: Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks adapted to include backscattering
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Proksch
2015-03-01
Full Text Available The Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS was originally developed for microwave emissions of snowpacks in the frequency range 5–100 GHz. It is based on six-flux theory to describe radiative transfer in snow including absorption, multiple volume scattering, radiation trapping due to internal reflection and a combination of coherent and incoherent superposition of reflections between horizontal layer interfaces. Here we introduce MEMLS3&a, an extension of MEMLS, which includes a backscatter model for active microwave remote sensing of snow. The reflectivity is decomposed into diffuse and specular components. Slight undulations of the snow surface are taken into account. The treatment of like and cross polarization is accomplished by an empirical splitting parameter q. MEMLS3&a (as well as MEMLS is set up in a way that snow input parameters can be derived by objective measurement methods which avoids fitting procedures of the scattering efficiency of snow, required by several other models. For the validation of the model we have used a combination of active and passive measurements from the NoSREx campaign in Sodankylä, Finland. We find a reasonable agreement between the measurements and simulations, subject to uncertainties in hitherto unmeasured input parameters of the backscatter model. The model is written in MATLAB and the code is publicly available for download through the following website: http://www.iapmw.unibe.ch/research/projects/snowtools/memls.html.
MEMLS3&a: Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks adapted to include backscattering
Proksch, M.; Mätzler, C.; Wiesmann, A.; Lemmetyinen, J.; Schwank, M.; Löwe, H.; Schneebeli, M.
2015-08-01
The Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS) was originally developed for microwave emissions of snowpacks in the frequency range 5-100 GHz. It is based on six-flux theory to describe radiative transfer in snow including absorption, multiple volume scattering, radiation trapping due to internal reflection and a combination of coherent and incoherent superposition of reflections between horizontal layer interfaces. Here we introduce MEMLS3&a, an extension of MEMLS, which includes a backscatter model for active microwave remote sensing of snow. The reflectivity is decomposed into diffuse and specular components. Slight undulations of the snow surface are taken into account. The treatment of like- and cross-polarization is accomplished by an empirical splitting parameter q. MEMLS3&a (as well as MEMLS) is set up in a way that snow input parameters can be derived by objective measurement methods which avoid fitting procedures of the scattering efficiency of snow, required by several other models. For the validation of the model we have used a combination of active and passive measurements from the NoSREx (Nordic Snow Radar Experiment) campaign in Sodankylä, Finland. We find a reasonable agreement between the measurements and simulations, subject to uncertainties in hitherto unmeasured input parameters of the backscatter model. The model is written in Matlab and the code is publicly available for download through the following website: http://www.iapmw.unibe.ch/research/projects/snowtools/memls.html.
Diagnosing Lee Wave Rotor Onset Using a Linear Model Including a Boundary Layer
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Miguel A. C. Teixeira
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A linear model is used to diagnose the onset of rotors in flow over 2D hills, for atmospheres that are neutrally stratified near the surface and stably stratified aloft, with a sharp temperature inversion in between, where trapped lee waves may propagate. This is achieved by coupling an inviscid two-layer mountain-wave model and a bulk boundary-layer model. The full model shows some ability to diagnose flow stagnation associated with rotors as a function of key input parameters, such as the Froude number and the height of the inversion, in numerical simulations and laboratory experiments carried out by previous authors. While calculations including only the effects of mean flow attenuation and velocity perturbation amplification within the surface layer represent flow stagnation fairly well in the more non-hydrostatic cases, only the full model, taking into account the feedback of the surface layer on the inviscid flow, satisfactorily predicts flow stagnation in the most hydrostatic case, although the corresponding condition is unable to discriminate between rotors and hydraulic jumps. Versions of the model not including this feedback severely underestimate the amplitude of trapped lee waves in that case, where the Fourier transform of the hill has zeros, showing that those waves are not forced directly by the orography.
Diehl, S; Zambrano, J; Carlsson, B
2016-01-01
A reduced model of a completely stirred-tank bioreactor coupled to a settling tank with recycle is analyzed in its steady states. In the reactor, the concentrations of one dominant particulate biomass and one soluble substrate component are modelled. While the biomass decay rate is assumed to be constant, growth kinetics can depend on both substrate and biomass concentrations, and optionally model substrate inhibition. Compressive and hindered settling phenomena are included using the Bürger-Diehl settler model, which consists of a partial differential equation. Steady-state solutions of this partial differential equation are obtained from an ordinary differential equation, making steady-state analysis of the entire plant difficult. A key result showing that the ordinary differential equation can be replaced with an approximate algebraic equation simplifies model analysis. This algebraic equation takes the location of the sludge-blanket during normal operation into account, allowing for the limiting flux capacity caused by compressive settling to easily be included in the steady-state mass balance equations for the entire plant system. This novel approach grants the possibility of more realistic solutions than other previously published reduced models, comprised of yet simpler settler assumptions. The steady-state concentrations, solids residence time, and the wastage flow ratio are functions of the recycle ratio. Solutions are shown for various growth kinetics; with different values of biomass decay rate, influent volumetric flow, and substrate concentration.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Nan Liang; Pu-Xun Wua; Zong-Hong Zhu
2011-01-01
We constrain the Cardassian expansion models from the latest observations,including the updated Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs),which are calibrated using a cosmology independent method from the Union2 compilation of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia).By combining the GRB data with the joint observations from the Union2SNe Ia set,along with the results from the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation observation from the seven-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe and the baryonic acoustic oscillation observation galaxy sample from the spectroscopic Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release,we find significant constraints on the model parameters of the original Cardassian model ΩM0=n 282+0.015-0.014,n=0.03+0.05-0.05;and n = -0.16+0.25-3.26,β=-0.76+0.34-0.58 of the modified polytropic Cardassian model,which are consistent with the ACDM model in a l-σ confidence region.From the reconstruction of the deceleration parameter q(z) in Cardassian models,we obtain the transition redshift ZT = 0.73 ± 0.04 for the original Cardassian model and ZT = 0.68 ± 0.04 for the modified polytropic Cardassian model.
Safe distance car-following model including backward-looking and its stability analysis
Yang, Da; Jin, Peter Jing; Pu, Yun; Ran, Bin
2013-03-01
The focus of this paper is the car-following behavior including backward-looking, simply called the bi-directional looking car-following behavior. This study is motivated by the potential changes of the physical properties of traffic flow caused by the fast developing intelligent transportation system (ITS), especially the new connected vehicle technology. Existing studies on this topic focused on general motors (GM) models and optimal velocity (OV) models. The safe distance car-following model, Gipps' model, which is more widely used in practice have not drawn too much attention in the bi-directional looking context. This paper explores the property of the bi-directional looking extension of Gipps' safe distance model. The stability condition of the proposed model is derived using the linear stability theory and is verified using numerical simulations. The impacts of the driver and vehicle characteristics appeared in the proposed model on the traffic flow stability are also investigated. It is found that taking into account the backward-looking effect in car-following has three types of effect on traffic flow: stabilizing, destabilizing and producing non-physical phenomenon. This conclusion is more sophisticated than the study results based on the OV bi-directional looking car-following models. Moreover, the drivers who have the smaller reaction time or the larger additional delay and think the other vehicles have larger maximum decelerations can stabilize traffic flow.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ahmed Eladawy
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Sea surface temperature (SST and surface wind (SW are considered the most important components in air–sea interactions. This study examines the relationships between SST, SW and various oceanic variables in the northern Red Sea (NRS during the period of 2000–2014. The current study is the first attempt to identify the SST fronts and their relationship with the dominant circulation patterns. SST fronts are mapped using the Cayula and Cornillon algorithms. The analysis is performed with available remote sensing and reanalyzed data together with 1/12° HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM outputs. Seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL is applied for trend analysis, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA is run for the atmospheric parameters. The SST, SW speed and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a changes show insignificant trends during the period of 2000–2014. Meridional SST fronts are more significant during the month of January, and fronts that are perpendicular to the sea's axis occur from February to May. Distinct monthly and spatial variations are present in all the examined parameters, although these variations are less pronounced for the wind direction. The SST is mainly controlled by the air temperature and sea level pressure. Significant correlations exist between the SST and the studied parameters (alongshore wind stress rather than the cross-shore wind stress, surface circulation, MLD, and Chl-a. Surface winds generally flow southeastward parallel to the Red Sea's axis explaining that alongshore wind stress is highly correlated with the studied parameters.
Renuka V.S; Abraham T Mathew
2013-01-01
A crane system offers a typical control problem being an under actuated MIMO system. In this paper the precise modelling of a 2D gantry crane system with 3 DOF is considered. First a simple dynamic model of the system is obtained using Lagrange’s equations of motion. Then, friction non-linearities were added to the model, which were found to decrease the output magnitudes from reference values. The model was further improved by considering the possibility of 3D angular swing which showed more...
Coyle, Yvette; Roca de Larios, Julio
2014-01-01
This article reports an empirical study in which we explored the role played by two forms of feedback--error correction and model texts--on child English as a foreign language learners' reported noticing and written output. The study was carried out with 11- and 12-year-old children placed in proficiency-matched pairs who engaged in a…
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bahman, Amir Sajjad; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede
2017-01-01
Detailed thermal dynamics of high power IGBT modules are important information for the reliability analysis and thermal design of power electronic systems. However, the existing thermal models have their limits to correctly predict these complicated thermal behavior in the IGBTs: The typically used...... thermal distribution under long-term studies. Meanwhile the boundary conditions for the thermal analysis are modeled and included, which can be adapted to different real field applications of power electronic converters. Finally, the accuracy of the proposed thermal model is verified by FEM simulations...... thermal model based on one-dimensional RC lumps have limits to provide temperature distributions inside the device, moreover some variable factors in the real-field applications like the cooling and heating conditions of the converter cannot be adapted. On the other hand, the more advanced three...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bahman, Amir Sajjad; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede
2017-01-01
Detailed thermal dynamics of high power IGBT modules are important information for the reliability analysis and thermal design of power electronic systems. However, the existing thermal models have their limits to correctly predict these complicated thermal behavior in the IGBTs: The typically used...... thermal distribution under long-term studies. Meanwhile the boundary conditions for the thermal analysis are modeled and included, which can be adapted to different real-field applications of power electronic converters. Finally, the accuracy of the proposed thermal model is verified by FEM simulations...... thermal model based on one-dimensional RC lumps have limits to provide temperature distributions inside the device, moreover some variable factors in the real-field applications like the cooling and heating conditions of the converter cannot be adapted. On the other hand, the more advanced three...
Oda, Akinori; Sugawara, Hirotake; Sakai, Yosuke; Akashi, Haruaki
2000-06-01
Xe dielectric barrier discharges at different gap lengths under applied pulse voltages with trapezoidal and sinusoidal waveforms were simulated using a self-consistent one-dimensional fluid model. In both waveforms, the light output power depended not only on the amplitude of voltage waveforms but also on the discharge gap length. At the narrower discharge gap, the light output efficiency was improved by increasing the time gradient of the applied voltage when the trapezoidal pulse is applied, and by decreasing the duty ratio in the sinusoidal case. In the present simulation, we adopted a fast numerical method for calculation of electric field introducing an exact expression of the discharge current.
A numerical model including PID control of a multizone crystal growth furnace
Panzarella, Charles H.; Kassemi, Mohammad
This paper presents a 2D axisymmetric combined conduction and radiation model of a multizone crystal growth furnace. The model is based on a programmable multizone furnace (PMZF) designed and built at NASA Lewis Research Center for growing high quality semiconductor crystals. A novel feature of this model is a control algorithm which automatically adjusts the power in any number of independently controlled heaters to establish the desired crystal temperatures in the furnace model. The control algorithm eliminates the need for numerous trial and error runs previously required to obtain the same results. The finite element code, FIDAP, used to develop the furnace model, was modified to directly incorporate the control algorithm. This algorithm, which presently uses PID control, and the associated heat transfer model are briefly discussed. Together, they have been used to predict the heater power distributions for a variety of furnace configurations and desired temperature profiles. Examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the PID controlled model in establishing isothermal, Bridgman, and other complicated temperature profies in the sample. Finally, an example is given to show how the algorithm can be used to change the desired profile with time according to a prescribed temperature-time evolution.
Duignan, Timothy T; Parsons, Drew F; Ninham, Barry W
2013-08-15
Physically accurate continuum solvent models that can calculate solvation energies are crucial to explain and predict the behavior of solute particles in water. Here, we present such a model applied to small spherical ions and neutral atoms. It improves upon a basic Born electrostatic model by including a standard cavity energy and adding a dispersion component, consistent with the Born electrostatic energy and using the same cavity size parameter. We show that the well-known, puzzling differences between the solvation energies of ions of the same size is attributable to the neglected dispersion contribution. This depends on dynamic polarizability as well as size. Generally, a large cancellation exists between the cavity and dispersion contributions. This explains the surprising success of the Born model. The model accurately reproduces the solvation energies of the alkali halide ions, as well as the silver(I) and copper(I) ions with an error of 12 kJ mol(-1) (±3%). The solvation energy of the noble gases is also reproduced with an error of 2.6 kJ mol(-1) (±30%). No arbitrary fitting parameters are needed to achieve this. This model significantly improves our understanding of ionic solvation and forms a solid basis for the investigation of other ion-specific effects using a continuum solvent model.
Model for resistance evolution in shape memory alloys including R-phase
Brammajyosula, Ravindra; Buravalla, Vidyashankar; Khandelwal, Ashish
2011-03-01
The electrical resistance behavior of a shape memory alloy (SMA) wire can be used for sensing the state of an SMA device. Hence, this study investigates the resistance evolution in SMAs. A lumped parameter model with cosine kinetics to capture the resistance variation during the phase transformation is developed. Several SMA materials show the presence of trigonal or rhombohedral (R) phase as an intermediate phase, apart from the commonly recognized austenite and martensite phases. Most of the SMA models ignore the R-phase effect in their prediction of thermomechanical response. This may be acceptable since the changes in thermomechanical response associated with the R-phase are relatively less. However, the resistivity related effects are pronounced in the presence of the R-phase and its appearance introduces non-monotonicity in the resistivity evolution. This leads to additional complexities in the use of resistance signal for sensing and control. Hence, a lumped model is developed here for resistance evolution including the R-phase effects. A phase-diagram-based model is proposed for predicting electro-thermomechanical response. Both steady state hysteretic response and transient response are modeled. The model predictions are compared with the available test data. Numerical studies have shown that the model is able to capture all the essential features of the resistance evolution in SMAs in the presence of the R-phase.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hyein Lim
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Spin-torque oscillator (STO is a promising new technology for the future RF oscillators, which is based on the spin-transfer torque (STT effect in magnetic multilayered nanostructure. It is expected to provide a larger tunability, smaller size, lower power consumption, and higher level of integration than the semiconductor-based oscillators. In our previous work, a circuit-level model of the giant magnetoresistance (GMR STO was proposed. In this paper, we present a physics-based circuit-level model of the magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ-based STO. MTJ-STO model includes the effect of perpendicular torque that has been ignored in the GMR-STO model. The variations of three major characteristics, generation frequency, mean oscillation power, and generation linewidth of an MTJ-STO with respect to the amount of perpendicular torque, are investigated, and the results are applied to our model. The operation of the model was verified by HSPICE simulation, and the results show an excellent agreement with the experimental data. The results also prove that a full circuit-level simulation with MJT-STO devices can be made with our proposed model.
Buckley, Lauren B; Waaser, Stephanie A; MacLean, Heidi J; Fox, Richard
2011-12-01
Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.
Modeling of single char combustion, including CO oxidation in its boundary layer
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, C.H.; Longwell, J.P.; Sarofim, A.F.
1994-10-25
The combustion of a char particle can be divided into a transient phase where its temperature increases as it is heated by oxidation, and heat transfer from the surrounding gas to an approximately constant temperature stage where gas phase reaction is important and which consumes most of the carbon and an extinction stage caused by carbon burnout. In this work, separate models were developed for the transient heating where gas phase reactions were unimportant and for the steady temperature stage where gas phase reactions were treated in detail. The transient char combustion model incorporates intrinsic char surface production of CO and CO{sub 2}, internal pore diffusion and external mass and heat transfer. The model provides useful information for particle ignition, burning temperature profile, combustion time, and carbon consumption rate. A gas phase reaction model incorporating the full set of 28 elementary C/H/O reactions was developed. This model calculated the gas phase CO oxidation reaction in the boundary layer at particle temperatures of 1250 K and 2500 K by using the carbon consumption rate and the burning temperature at the pseudo-steady state calculated from the temperature profile model but the transient heating was not included. This gas phase model can predict the gas species, and the temperature distributions in the boundary layer, the CO{sub 2}/CO ratio, and the location of CO oxidation. A mechanistic heat and mass transfer model was added to the temperature profile model to predict combustion behavior in a fluidized bed. These models were applied to data from the fluidized combustion of Newlands coal char particles. 52 refs., 60 figs.
Including source uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of stable isotope mixing models.
Ward, Eric J; Semmens, Brice X; Schindler, Daniel E
2010-06-15
Stable isotope mixing models offer a statistical framework for estimating the contribution of multiple sources (such as prey) to a mixture distribution. Recent advances in these models have estimated the source proportions using Bayesian methods, but have not explicitly accounted for uncertainty in the mean and variance of sources. We demonstrate that treating these quantities as unknown parameters can reduce bias in the estimated source contributions, although model complexity is increased (thereby increasing the variance of estimates). The advantages of this fully Bayesian approach are particularly apparent when the source geometry is poor or sample sizes are small. A second benefit to treating source quantities as parameters is that prior source information can be included. We present findings from 9 lake food-webs, where the consumer of interest (fish) has a diet composed of 5 sources: aquatic insects, snails, zooplankton, amphipods, and terrestrial insects. We compared the traditional Bayesian stable isotope mixing model with fixed source parameters to our fully Bayesian model-with and without an informative prior. The informative prior has much less impact than the choice of model-the traditional mixing model with fixed source parameters estimates the diet to be dominated by aquatic insects, while the fully Bayesian model estimates the diet to be more balanced but with greater importance of zooplankton. The findings from this example demonstrate that there can be stark differences in inference between the two model approaches, particularly when the source geometry of the mixing model is poor. These analyses also emphasize the importance of investing substantial effort toward characterizing the variation in the isotopic characteristics of source pools to appropriately quantify uncertainties in their contributions to consumers in food webs.
Henkel, Marius; Schmidberger, Anke; Vogelbacher, Markus; Kühnert, Christian; Beuker, Janina; Bernard, Thomas; Schwartz, Thomas; Syldatk, Christoph; Hausmann, Rudolf
2014-08-01
The production of rhamnolipid biosurfactants by Pseudomonas aeruginosa is under complex control of a quorum sensing-dependent regulatory network. Due to a lack of understanding of the kinetics applicable to the process and relevant interrelations of variables, current processes for rhamnolipid production are based on heuristic approaches. To systematically establish a knowledge-based process for rhamnolipid production, a deeper understanding of the time-course and coupling of process variables is required. By combining reaction kinetics, stoichiometry, and experimental data, a process model for rhamnolipid production with P. aeruginosa PAO1 on sunflower oil was developed as a system of coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In addition, cell density-based quorum sensing dynamics were included in the model. The model comprises a total of 36 parameters, 14 of which are yield coefficients and 7 of which are substrate affinity and inhibition constants. Of all 36 parameters, 30 were derived from dedicated experimental results, literature, and databases and 6 of them were used as fitting parameters. The model is able to describe data on biomass growth, substrates, and products obtained from a reference batch process and other validation scenarios. The model presented describes the time-course and interrelation of biomass, relevant substrates, and products on a process level while including a kinetic representation of cell density-dependent regulatory mechanisms.
Codigestion of solid wastes: a review of its uses and perspectives including modeling.
Mata-Alvarez, Joan; Dosta, Joan; Macé, Sandra; Astals, Sergi
2011-06-01
The last two years have witnessed a dramatic increase in the number of papers published on the subject of codigestion, highlighting the relevance of this topic within anaerobic digestion research. Consequently, it seems appropriate to undertake a review of codigestion practices starting from the late 1970s, when the first papers related to this concept were published, and continuing to the present day, demonstrating the exponential growth in the interest shown in this approach in recent years. Following a general analysis of the situation, state-of-the-art codigestion is described, focusing on the two most important areas as regards publication: codigestion involving sewage sludge and the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (including a review of the secondary advantages for wastewater treatment plant related to biological nutrient removal), and codigestion in the agricultural sector, that is, including agricultural - farm wastes, and energy crops. Within these areas, a large number of oversized digesters appear which can be used to codigest other substrates, resulting in economic and environmental advantages. Although the situation may be changing, there is still a need for good examples on an industrial scale, particularly with regard to wastewater treatment plants, in order to extend this beneficial practice. In the last section, a detailed analysis of papers addressing the important aspect of modelisation is included. This analysis includes the first codigestion models to be developed as well as recent applications of the standardised anaerobic digestion model ADM1 to codigestion. (This review includes studies ranging from laboratory to industrial scale.).
Enhanced UWB Radio Channel Model for Short-Range Communication Scenarios Including User Dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kovacs, Istvan Zsolt; Nguyen, Tuan Hung; Eggers, Patrick Claus F.
2005-01-01
In this paper we propose a SISO UWB radio channel model for short-range radio link scenarios between a fixed device and a dynamic user hand-held device. The channel model is derived based on novel experimental UWB radio propagation investigations carried out in typical indoor PAN scenarios...... including realistic device and user terminal antenna configurations. The radio channel measurements have been performed in the lower UWB frequency band of 3GHz to 5GHz with a 2x4 MIMO antenna configuration. Several environments, user scenarios and two types of user terminals have been used. The developed...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hossein Sadegh Lafmejani
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Fuzzy logic controller (FLC is a heuristic method by If-Then Rules which resembles human intelligence and it is a good method for designing Non-linear control systems. In this paper, an arbitrary helicopter model includes articulated manipulators has been simulated with Matlab SimMechanics toolbox. Due to the difficulties of modeling this complex system, a fuzzy controller with simple fuzzy rules has been designed for its yaw and roll angles in order to stabilize the helicopter while it is in the presence of disturbances or its manipulators are moving for a task. Results reveal that a simple FLC can appropriately control this system.
Including Finite Surface Span Effects in Empirical Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Models
Brown, Clifford A.
2016-01-01
The effect of finite span on the jet-surface interaction noise source and the jet mixing noise shielding and reflection effects is considered using recently acquired experimental data. First, the experimental setup and resulting data are presented with particular attention to the role of surface span on far-field noise. These effects are then included in existing empirical models that have previously assumed that all surfaces are semi-infinite. This extended abstract briefly describes the experimental setup and data leaving the empirical modeling aspects for the final paper.
Fuller, C. R.
1986-01-01
A simplified analytical model of transmission of noise into the interior of propeller-driven aircraft has been developed. The analysis includes directivity and relative phase effects of the propeller noise sources, and leads to a closed form solution for the coupled motion between the interior and exterior fields via the shell (fuselage) vibrational response. Various situations commonly encountered in considering sound transmission into aircraft fuselages are investigated analytically and the results obtained are compared to measurements in real aircraft. In general the model has proved successful in identifying basic mechanisms behind noise transmission phenomena.
Liang, Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu; Xu, Yijian
2012-03-01
Waste recycling for paper production is an important component of waste management. This study constructs a physical input-output life-cycle assessment (PIO-LCA) model. The PIO-LCA model is used to investigate environmental impacts of four categories of waste recycling in China's paper industry: crop straws, bagasse, textile wastes and scrap paper. Crop straw recycling and wood utilization for paper production have small total intensity of environmental impacts. Moreover, environmental impacts reduction of crop straw recycling and wood utilization benefits the most from technology development. Thus, using crop straws and wood (including wood wastes) for paper production should be promoted. Technology development has small effects on environmental impacts reduction of bagasse recycling, textile waste recycling and scrap paper recycling. In addition, bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling have big total intensity of environmental impacts. Thus, the development of bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling should be properly limited. Other pathways for reusing bagasse and textile wastes should be explored and evaluated. Moreover, imports of scrap paper should be encouraged to reduce large indirect impacts of scrap paper recycling on domestic environment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.
2016-12-01
The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal
An air/sea flux model including the effects of capillary waves
Bourassa, Mark A.
1993-01-01
An improved model of the air/sea interface is developed. The improvements consist in including the effect of capillary (surface tension) waves on the tropical surface fluxes and the consideration of the sea state, both of which increase the magnitude of tropical surface fluxes. Changes in surface stress are most significant in the low wind-speed regions, which include the areas where westerly bursts occur. It is shown that the changes, from the regular wind conditions to those of a westerly burst or El-Nino, can double when the effects of capillary waves are considered. This implies a much stronger coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere than is predicted by other boundary layer models.
A complete model of CH+ rotational excitation including radiative and chemical pumping processes
Godard, Benjamin
2012-01-01
Aims. Excitation of far-infrared and submillimetric molecular lines may originate from nonreactive collisions, chemical formation, or far infrared, near-infrared, and optical fluorescences. As a template, we investigate the impact of each of these processes on the excitation of the methylidyne cation CH+ and on the intensities of its rotational transitions recently detected in emission in dense photodissociation regions (PDRs) and in planetary nebulae. Methods. We have developed a nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) excitation model that includes the entire energy structure of CH+, i.e. taking into account the pumping of its vibrational and bound and unbound electronic states by near-infrared and optical photons. The model includes the theoretical cross-sections of nonreactive collisions with H, H2, He, and e-, and a Boltzmann distribution is used to describe the probability of populating the excited levels of CH+ during its chemical formation by hydrogenation of C+. To confirm our results we also pe...
Including Flocculation in a Numerical Sediment Transport Model for a Partially-Mixed Estuary
Tarpley, D.; Harris, C. K.; Friedrichs, C. T.
2016-12-01
Particle settling velocity impacts the transport of suspended sediment to the first order but fine-grained material like muds tend to form loosely bound aggregates (flocs) whose settling velocity can vary widely. Properties of flocculated sediment such as settling velocity and particle density are difficult to predict because they change in response to several factors including salinity, suspended sediment concentration, turbulent mixing, and organic content. Knowledge of the mechanisms governing flocculation of cohesive sediment is rapidly expanding; especially in response to recent technical advances. As the understanding of particle dynamics progresses, numerical models describing flocculation and break-up are being developed with varying degrees of complexity. While complex models capture the dynamics of the system, their computational costs may prohibit their incorporation into larger model domains. It is important to determine if the computational costs of intricate floc models are justifiable compared to simpler formulations. For this study, we implement an idealized two-dimensional model designed to represent a longitudinal section of a partially mixed estuary that neglects across-channel variation but exhibits salinity driven estuarine circulation. The idealized domain is designed to mimic the primary features of the York River, VA. Suspended load, erosion and deposition are calculated within the sediment transport routines of the COAWST modeling system. We compare different methods for prescribing settling velocity of fine-grained material. The simplest, standard model neglects flocculation dynamics while the complex treatment is a size-class-based flocculation model (FLOCMOD). Differences in tidal and daily averages of suspended load, bulk settling velocity and bed deposition are compared between the standard and FLOCMOD runs, to examine the relative impact of flocculation on sediment transport patterns. We expect FLOCMOD to have greater variability and
Bongers, Mathilda L; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Oberije, Cary; Lambin, Philippe; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A; Coupé, V M H
2016-01-01
With the shift toward individualized treatment, cost-effectiveness models need to incorporate patient and tumor characteristics that may be relevant to treatment planning. In this study, we used multistate statistical modeling to inform a microsimulation model for cost-effectiveness analysis of individualized radiotherapy in lung cancer. The model tracks clinical events over time and takes patient and tumor features into account. Four clinical states were included in the model: alive without progression, local recurrence, metastasis, and death. Individual patients were simulated by repeatedly sampling a patient profile, consisting of patient and tumor characteristics. The transitioning of patients between the health states is governed by personalized time-dependent hazard rates, which were obtained from multistate statistical modeling (MSSM). The model simulations for both the individualized and conventional radiotherapy strategies demonstrated internal and external validity. Therefore, MSSM is a useful technique for obtaining the correlated individualized transition rates that are required for the quantification of a microsimulation model. Moreover, we have used the hazard ratios, their 95% confidence intervals, and their covariance to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the model in a correlated way. The obtained model will be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of individualized radiotherapy treatment planning, including the uncertainty of input parameters. We discuss the model-building process and the strengths and weaknesses of using MSSM in a microsimulation model for individualized radiotherapy in lung cancer.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1995-12-01
Several safety reports will be produced in the process of planning and constructing the system for disposal of high-level radioactive waste in Sweden. The present report gives a model, with detailed examples, of how these reports should be organized and what steps they should include. In the near future safety reports will deal with the encapsulation plant and the repository. Later reports will treat operation of the handling systems and the repository.
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Cooper, Antony K
2011-07-01
Full Text Available an aggregator of VGI, such as Ushahidi, and the provider of the infrastructure for collecting VGI, such as OpenStreetMap. 3) Broker: A stakeholder who brings End Users and Providers together and assists in the negotiation of contracts between them... model of a spatial data infrastructure to include volunteered geographical information Antony K Cooper*, Petr Rapant?, Jan Hjelmager?, Dominique Laurent?, Adam Iwaniak#, Serena Coetzee$, Harold Moellering? and Ulrich D?ren? *Logistics...
QCD Equation of State From a Chiral Hadronic Model Including Quark Degrees of Freedom
Rau, Philip; Schramm, Stefan; Stöcker, Horst
2013-01-01
This work presents an effective model for strongly interacting matter and the QCD equation of state (EoS). The model includes both hadron and quark degrees of freedom and takes into account the transition of chiral symmetry restoration as well as the deconfinement phase transition. At low temperatures $T$ and baryonic densities $\\rho_B$ a hadron resonance gas is described using a SU(3)-flavor sigma-omega model and a quark phase is introduced in analogy to PNJL models for higher $T$ and $\\rho_B$. In this way, the correct asymptotic degrees of freedom are used in a wide range of $T$ and $\\rho_B$. Here, results of this model concerning the chiral and deconfinement phase transitions and thermodynamic model properties are presented. Large hadron resonance multiplicities in the transition region emphasize the importance of heavy-mass resonance states in this region and their impact on the chiral transition behavior. The resulting phase diagram of QCD matter at small chemical potentials is in line with latest lattic...
A full model for simulation of electrochemical cells including complex behavior
Esperilla, J. J.; Félez, J.; Romero, G.; Carretero, A.
This communication presents a model of electrochemical cells developed in order to simulate their electrical, chemical and thermal behavior showing the differences when thermal effects are or not considered in the charge-discharge process. The work presented here has been applied to the particular case of the Pb,PbSO 4|H 2SO 4 (aq)|PbO 2,Pb cell, which forms the basis of the lead-acid batteries so widely used in the automotive industry and as traction batteries in electric or hybrid vehicles. Each half-cell is considered independently in the model. For each half-cell, in addition to the main electrode reaction, a secondary reaction is considered: the hydrogen evolution reaction in the negative electrode and the oxygen evolution reaction in the positive. The equilibrium potential is calculated with the Nernst equation, in which the activity coefficients are fitted to an exponential function using experimental data. On the other hand, the two main mechanisms that produce the overpotential are considered, that is the activation or charge transfer and the diffusion mechanisms. First, an isothermal model has been studied in order to show the behavior of the main phenomena. A more complex model has also been studied including thermal behavior. This model is very useful in the case of traction batteries in electric and hybrid vehicles where high current intensities appear. Some simulation results are also presented in order to show the accuracy of the proposed models.
A High-Rate, Single-Crystal Model including Phase Transformations, Plastic Slip, and Twinning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Addessio, Francis L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Bronkhorst, Curt Allan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Bolme, Cynthia Anne [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Explosive Science and Shock Physics Division; Brown, Donald William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Cerreta, Ellen Kathleen [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Lebensohn, Ricardo A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Lookman, Turab [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Luscher, Darby Jon [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Mayeur, Jason Rhea [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Morrow, Benjamin M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Rigg, Paulo A. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States). Dept. of Physics. Inst. for Shock Physics
2016-08-09
An anisotropic, rate-dependent, single-crystal approach for modeling materials under the conditions of high strain rates and pressures is provided. The model includes the effects of large deformations, nonlinear elasticity, phase transformations, and plastic slip and twinning. It is envisioned that the model may be used to examine these coupled effects on the local deformation of materials that are subjected to ballistic impact or explosive loading. The model is formulated using a multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient. A plate impact experiment on a multi-crystal sample of titanium was conducted. The particle velocities at the back surface of three crystal orientations relative to the direction of impact were measured. Molecular dynamics simulations were conducted to investigate the details of the high-rate deformation and pursue issues related to the phase transformation for titanium. Simulations using the single crystal model were conducted and compared to the high-rate experimental data for the impact loaded single crystals. The model was found to capture the features of the experiments.
A 3D model of the oculomotor plant including the pulley system
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Viegener, A; Armentano, R L [Fundacion Universitaria Dr. Rene G. Favaloro, SolIs 453 (1078) Buenos Aires (Argentina)
2007-11-15
Early models of the oculomotor plant only considered the eye globes and the muscles that move them. Recently, connective tissue structures have been found enveloping the extraocular muscles (EOMs) and firmly anchored to the orbital wall. These structures act as pulleys; they determine the functional origin of the EOMs and, in consequence, their effective pulling direction. A three dimensional model of the oculomotor plant, including pulleys, has been developed and simulations in Simulink were performed during saccadic eye movements. Listing's law was implemented based on the supposition that there exists an eye orientation related signal. The inclusion of the pulleys in the model makes this assumption plausible and simplifies the problem of the plant noncommutativity.
A flexible and qualitatively stable model for cell cycle dynamics including DNA damage effects.
Jeffries, Clark D; Johnson, Charles R; Zhou, Tong; Simpson, Dennis A; Kaufmann, William K
2012-01-01
This paper includes a conceptual framework for cell cycle modeling into which the experimenter can map observed data and evaluate mechanisms of cell cycle control. The basic model exhibits qualitative stability, meaning that regardless of magnitudes of system parameters its instances are guaranteed to be stable in the sense that all feasible trajectories converge to a certain trajectory. Qualitative stability can also be described by the signs of real parts of eigenvalues of the system matrix. On the biological side, the resulting model can be tuned to approximate experimental data pertaining to human fibroblast cell lines treated with ionizing radiation, with or without disabled DNA damage checkpoints. Together these properties validate a fundamental, first order systems view of cell dynamics. Classification Codes: 15A68.
RELAP5-3D Code Includes Athena Features and Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Richard A. Riemke; Cliff B. Davis; Richard R. Schultz
2006-07-01
Version 2.3 of the RELAP5-3D computer program includes all features and models previously available only in the ATHENA version of the code. These include the addition of new working fluids (i.e., ammonia, blood, carbon dioxide, glycerol, helium, hydrogen, lead-bismuth, lithium, lithium-lead, nitrogen, potassium, sodium, and sodium-potassium) and a magnetohydrodynamic model that expands the capability of the code to model many more thermal-hydraulic systems. In addition to the new working fluids along with the standard working fluid water, one or more noncondensable gases (e.g., air, argon, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, helium, hydrogen, krypton, nitrogen, oxygen, sf6, xenon) can be specified as part of the vapor/gas phase of the working fluid. These noncondensable gases were in previous versions of RELAP5- 3D. Recently four molten salts have been added as working fluids to RELAP5-3D Version 2.4, which has had limited release. These molten salts will be in RELAP5-3D Version 2.5, which will have a general release like RELAP5-3D Version 2.3. Applications that use these new features and models are discussed in this paper.
Including policy and management in socio-hydrology models: initial conceptualizations
Hermans, Leon; Korbee, Dorien
2017-04-01
Socio-hydrology studies the interactions in coupled human-water systems. So far, the use of dynamic models that capture the direct feedback between societal and hydrological systems has been dominant. What has not yet been included with any particular emphasis, is the policy or management layer, which is a central element in for instance integrated water resources management (IWRM) or adaptive delta management (ADM). Studying the direct interactions between human-water systems generates knowledges that eventually helps influence these interactions in ways that may ensure better outcomes - for society and for the health and sustainability of water systems. This influence sometimes occurs through spontaneous emergence, uncoordinated by societal agents - private sector, citizens, consumers, water users. However, the term 'management' in IWRM and ADM also implies an additional coordinated attempt through various public actors. This contribution is a call to include the policy and management dimension more prominently into the research focus of the socio-hydrology field, and offers first conceptual variables that should be considered in attempts to include this policy or management layer in socio-hydrology models. This is done by drawing on existing frameworks to study policy processes throughout both planning and implementation phases. These include frameworks such as the advocacy coalition framework, collective learning and policy arrangements, which all emphasis longer-term dynamics and feedbacks between actor coalitions in strategic planning and implementation processes. A case about longter-term dynamics in the management of the Haringvliet in the Netherlands is used to illustrate the paper.
EXACT SOLUTIONS FOR NONLINEAR TRANSIENT FLOW MODEL INCLUDING A QUADRATIC GRADIENT TERM
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
曹绪龙; 同登科; 王瑞和
2004-01-01
The models of the nonlinear radial flow for the infinite and finite reservoirs including a quadratic gradient term were presented. The exact solution was given in real space for flow equation including quadratic gradiet term for both constant-rate and constant pressure production cases in an infinite system by using generalized Weber transform. Analytical solutions for flow equation including quadratic gradient term were also obtained by using the Hankel transform for a finite circular reservoir case. Both closed and constant pressure outer boundary conditions are considered. Moreover, both constant rate and constant pressure inner boundary conditions are considered. The difference between the nonlinear pressure solution and linear pressure solution is analyzed. The difference may be reached about 8% in the long time. The effect of the quadratic gradient term in the large time well test is considered.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rummland, Janin
2014-02-01
Full Text Available A population dynamic model was combined with a genetic model and embedded into a cellular automaton. The model was evaluated with data from two three year field trials which were conducted on commercial fields in Lower Saxony and Saxony where target-site resistance to acetolactate synthase (ALS inhibitors was detected in Apera spica-venti. The cropping system consisted of continuous winter wheat in the trial period. On four plots different herbicide strategies were tested. These were continuous application of a soil herbicide, alternation between ALS inhibitor and soil herbicide, continuous use of an ALS inhibitor and two applications per growing season with different mode of actions (MoA. In the beginning of the trial soil samples were taken to estimate the number of viable seeds in the seed bank. This data was used to produce seed distribution maps by interpolating the estimated seed data over the field. These seed maps were then used as the initial seed bank in the model and simulations over three years were executed with the assumption of herbicide use as conducted in the field trial. A comparison of the model output with the field data showed very good analogies in the weed density. Also the development of resistance was reproduced well. The model can now be used to assess herbicide management strategies concerning the development of herbicide resistance for A. spica-venti.
Hafele, Gene M.
1992-01-01
The NOAA's Spaceflight Meteorology Group has used the point forecast output from the Global Profile Archive and Global Profile Archive since 1990, and found this product to allow forecasters to examine the MRF model in a vertical profile, and thereby determine how different model parameters behave over time. Attention is presently given to the use of these resources in the illustrative case of the STS-40 mission, over northwestern Spain.
投入产出偏差分析模型的建立与应用%Input-output deviation model and its application
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
宋文新; 宋辉; 王振涛
2003-01-01
In order to study that how and in what extent such factors as technology progress, terminal demand,inpert-expert may affect the tktal national economic amount as well as its structure, the paper established an input-output biased estimate model based on the essential inputoutput model. Practice in the reality proves a good effect. It provides a new quantitative analyzing method for the kind of problems.
SPheno 3.1: extensions including flavour, CP-phases and models beyond the MSSM
Porod, W.; Staub, F.
2012-11-01
We describe recent extensions of the program SPhenoincluding flavour aspects, CP-phases, R-parity violation and low energy observables. In case of flavour mixing all masses of supersymmetric particles are calculated including the complete flavour structure and all possible CP-phases at the 1-loop level. We give details on implemented seesaw models, low energy observables and the corresponding extension of the SUSY Les Houches Accord. Moreover, we comment on the possibilities to include MSSM extensions in SPheno. Catalogue identifier: ADRV_v2_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADRV_v2_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen’s University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 154062 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 1336037 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Fortran95. Computer: PC running under Linux, should run in every Unix environment. Operating system: Linux, Unix. Classification: 11.6. Catalogue identifier of previous version: ADRV_v1_0 Journal reference of previous version: Comput. Phys. Comm. 153(2003)275 Does the new version supersede the previous version?: Yes Nature of problem: The first issue is the determination of the masses and couplings of supersymmetric particles in various supersymmetric models, the R-parity conserved MSSM with generation mixing and including CP-violating phases, various seesaw extensions of the MSSM and the MSSM with bilinear R-parity breaking. Low energy data on Standard Model fermion masses, gauge couplings and electroweak gauge boson masses serve as constraints. Radiative corrections from supersymmetric particles to these inputs must be calculated. Theoretical constraints on the soft SUSY breaking parameters from a high scale theory are imposed and the parameters at the electroweak scale are obtained from the
Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T.; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M.; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Plummer, David; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S.; Strode, Sarah; Szopa, Sophie; Zengast, Guang
2016-08-01
Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year-1), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000) deaths year-1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year-1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
GERMÁN LOBOS
2015-12-01
Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in
Connelly, M. J.
2014-05-01
The slow light effect in SOAs has many applications in microwave photonics such as phase shifting and filtering. Models are needed to predict slow light in SOAs and its dependence on the bias current, optical power and modulation index. In this paper we predict the slow light characteristics of a tensile-strained SOA by using a detailed time-domain model. The model includes full band-structure based calculations of the material gain, bimolecular recombination and spontaneous emission, a carrier density rate equation and travelling wave equations for the input signal and amplified spontaneous emission. The slow light effect is caused by coherent population oscillations, whereby beating between the spectral components of an amplitude modulated lightwave causes carrier density oscillations at the beat frequency, leading to changes in the group velocity. The resulting beat signal at the SOA output after photodetection, is phase shifted relative to the SOA input beat signal. The phase shift can be adjusted by controlling the optical power and bias current. However the beat signal gain is low at low frequencies, leading to a poor beat signal output signal-to-noise ratio. If the optical input and SOA drive current are simultaneously modulated, this leads to forced population oscillations that greatly enhance the low frequency beat signal gain. The model is used to determine the improvement in gain and phase response and its dependency on the optical power, bias current and modulation index. Model predictions show good agreement with experimental trends reported in the literature.
Venetsanos, A G; Bartzis, J G; Würtz, J; Papailiou, D D
2003-04-25
A two-dimensional shallow layer model has been developed to predict dense gas dispersion, under realistic conditions, including complex features such as two-phase releases, obstacles and inclined ground. The model attempts to predict the time and space evolution of the cloud formed after a release of a two-phase pollutant into the atmosphere. The air-pollutant mixture is assumed ideal. The cloud evolution is described mathematically through the Cartesian, two-dimensional, shallow layer conservation equations for mixture mass, mixture momentum in two horizontal directions, total pollutant mass fraction (vapor and liquid) and mixture internal energy. Liquid mass fraction is obtained assuming phase equilibrium. Account is taken in the conservation equations for liquid slip and eventual liquid rainout through the ground. Entrainment of ambient air is modeled via an entrainment velocity model, which takes into account the effects of ground friction, ground heat transfer and relative motion between cloud and surrounding atmosphere. The model additionally accounts for thin obstacles effects in three ways. First a stepwise description of the obstacle is generated, following the grid cell faces, taking into account the corresponding area blockage. Then obstacle drag on the passing cloud is modeled by adding flow resistance terms in the momentum equations. Finally the effect of extra vorticity generation and entrainment enhancement behind obstacles is modeled by adding locally into the entrainment formula without obstacles, a characteristic velocity scale defined from the obstacle pressure drop and the local cloud height.The present model predictions have been compared against theoretical results for constant volume and constant flux gravity currents. It was found that deviations of the predicted cloud footprint area change with time from the theoretical were acceptably small, if one models the frictional forces between cloud and ambient air, neglecting the Richardson
Stolarski, R. S.; Douglass, A. R.
1986-01-01
Models of stratospheric photochemistry are generally tested by comparing their predictions for the composition of the present atmosphere with measurements of species concentrations. These models are then used to make predictions of the atmospheric sensitivity to perturbations. Here the problem of the sensitivity of such a model to chlorine perturbations ranging from the present influx of chlorine-containing compounds to several times that influx is addressed. The effects of uncertainties in input parameters, including reaction rate coefficients, cross sections, solar fluxes, and boundary conditions, are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method in which the values of the input parameters are randomly selected. The results are probability distributions for present atmosheric concentrations and for calculated perturbations due to chlorine from fluorocarbons. For more than 300 Monte Carlo runs the calculated ozone perturbation for continued emission of fluorocarbons at today's rates had a mean value of -6.2 percent, with a 1-sigma width of 5.5 percent. Using the same runs but only allowing the cases in which the calculated present atmosphere values of NO, NO2, and ClO at 25 km altitude fell within the range of measurements yielded a mean ozone depletion of -3 percent, with a 1-sigma deviation of 2.2 percent. The model showed a nonlinear behavior as a function of added fluorocarbons. The mean of the Monte Carlo runs was less nonlinear than the model run using mean value of the input parameters.
Kim, Sun Jung; Yoo, Il Young
2016-03-01
The purpose of this study was to explain the health promotion behavior of Chinese international students in Korea using a structural equation model including acculturation factors. A survey using self-administered questionnaires was employed. Data were collected from 272 Chinese students who have resided in Korea for longer than 6 months. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The p value of final model is .31. The fitness parameters of the final model such as goodness of fit index, adjusted goodness of fit index, normed fit index, non-normed fit index, and comparative fit index were more than .95. Root mean square of residual and root mean square error of approximation also met the criteria. Self-esteem, perceived health status, acculturative stress and acculturation level had direct effects on health promotion behavior of the participants and the model explained 30.0% of variance. The Chinese students in Korea with higher self-esteem, perceived health status, acculturation level, and lower acculturative stress reported higher health promotion behavior. The findings can be applied to develop health promotion strategies for this population. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.
S5-4: Formal Modeling of Affordance in Human-Included Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Namhun Kim
2012-10-01
Full Text Available In spite of it being necessary for humans to consider modeling, analysis, and control of human-included systems, it has been considered a challenging problem because of the critical role of humans in complex systems and of humans' capability of executing unanticipated actions–both beneficial and detrimental ones. Thus, to provide systematic approaches to modeling human actions as a part of system behaviors, a formal modeling framework for human-involved systems in which humans play a controlling role based on their perceptual information is presented. The theory of affordance provides definitions of human actions and their associated properties; Finite State Automata (FSA based modeling is capable of mapping nondeterministic humans into computable components in the system representation. In this talk, we investigate the role of perception in human actions in the system operation and examine the representation of perceptual elements in affordance-based modeling formalism. The proposed framework is expected to capture the natural ways in which humans participate in the system as part of its operation. A human-machine cooperative manufacturing system control example and a human agent simulation example will be introduced for the illustrative purposes at the end of the presentation.
An extended gene protein/products Boolean network model including post-transcriptional regulation.
Benso, Alfredo; Di Carlo, Stefano; Politano, Gianfranco; Savino, Alessandro; Vasciaveo, Alessandro
2014-05-07
Networks Biology allows the study of complex interactions between biological systems using formal, well structured, and computationally friendly models. Several different network models can be created, depending on the type of interactions that need to be investigated. Gene Regulatory Networks (GRN) are an effective model commonly used to study the complex regulatory mechanisms of a cell. Unfortunately, given their intrinsic complexity and non discrete nature, the computational study of realistic-sized complex GRNs requires some abstractions. Boolean Networks (BNs), for example, are a reliable model that can be used to represent networks where the possible state of a node is a boolean value (0 or 1). Despite this strong simplification, BNs have been used to study both structural and dynamic properties of real as well as randomly generated GRNs. In this paper we show how it is possible to include the post-transcriptional regulation mechanism (a key process mediated by small non-coding RNA molecules like the miRNAs) into the BN model of a GRN. The enhanced BN model is implemented in a software toolkit (EBNT) that allows to analyze boolean GRNs from both a structural and a dynamic point of view. The open-source toolkit is compatible with available visualization tools like Cytoscape and allows to run detailed analysis of the network topology as well as of its attractors, trajectories, and state-space. In the paper, a small GRN built around the mTOR gene is used to demonstrate the main capabilities of the toolkit. The extended model proposed in this paper opens new opportunities in the study of gene regulation. Several of the successful researches done with the support of BN to understand high-level characteristics of regulatory networks, can now be improved to better understand the role of post-transcriptional regulation for example as a network-wide noise-reduction or stabilization mechanisms.
An extended gene protein/products boolean network model including post-transcriptional regulation
2014-01-01
Background Networks Biology allows the study of complex interactions between biological systems using formal, well structured, and computationally friendly models. Several different network models can be created, depending on the type of interactions that need to be investigated. Gene Regulatory Networks (GRN) are an effective model commonly used to study the complex regulatory mechanisms of a cell. Unfortunately, given their intrinsic complexity and non discrete nature, the computational study of realistic-sized complex GRNs requires some abstractions. Boolean Networks (BNs), for example, are a reliable model that can be used to represent networks where the possible state of a node is a boolean value (0 or 1). Despite this strong simplification, BNs have been used to study both structural and dynamic properties of real as well as randomly generated GRNs. Results In this paper we show how it is possible to include the post-transcriptional regulation mechanism (a key process mediated by small non-coding RNA molecules like the miRNAs) into the BN model of a GRN. The enhanced BN model is implemented in a software toolkit (EBNT) that allows to analyze boolean GRNs from both a structural and a dynamic point of view. The open-source toolkit is compatible with available visualization tools like Cytoscape and allows to run detailed analysis of the network topology as well as of its attractors, trajectories, and state-space. In the paper, a small GRN built around the mTOR gene is used to demonstrate the main capabilities of the toolkit. Conclusions The extended model proposed in this paper opens new opportunities in the study of gene regulation. Several of the successful researches done with the support of BN to understand high-level characteristics of regulatory networks, can now be improved to better understand the role of post-transcriptional regulation for example as a network-wide noise-reduction or stabilization mechanisms. PMID:25080304
Zhang, Yan; Zheng, Hongmei; Fath, Brian D; Liu, Hong; Yang, Zhifeng; Liu, Gengyuan; Su, Meirong
2014-01-15
If cities are considered as "superorganisms", then disorders of their metabolic processes cause something analogous to an "urban disease". It is therefore helpful to identify the causes of such disorders by analyzing the inner mechanisms that control urban metabolic processes. Combining input-output analysis with ecological network analysis lets researchers study the functional relationships and hierarchy of the urban metabolic processes, thereby providing direct support for the analysis of urban disease. In this paper, using Beijing as an example, we develop a model of an urban metabolic system that accounts for the intensity of the embodied ecological elements using monetary input-output tables from 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, and use this data to compile the corresponding physical input-output tables. This approach described the various flows of ecological elements through urban metabolic processes and let us build an ecological network model with 32 components. Then, using two methods from ecological network analysis (flow analysis and utility analysis), we quantitatively analyzed the physical input-output relationships among urban components, determined the ecological hierarchy of the components of the metabolic system, and determined the distribution of advantage-dominated and disadvantage-dominated relationships, thereby providing scientific support to guide restructuring of the urban metabolic system in an effort to prevent or cure urban "diseases".
ORNL ALICE: a statistical model computer code including fission competition. [In FORTRAN
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Plasil, F.
1977-11-01
A listing of the computer code ORNL ALICE is given. This code is a modified version of computer codes ALICE and OVERLAID ALICE. It allows for higher excitation energies and for a greater number of evaporated particles than the earlier versions. The angular momentum removal option was made more general and more internally consistent. Certain roundoff errors are avoided by keeping a strict accounting of partial probabilities. Several output options were added.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Benyoucef B.
2012-06-01
Full Text Available The production of electricity based on the conversion of the sunlight by photovoltaic cells containing crystalline silicon is the way most used on the technological and industrial level Consequently, the development of the terrestrial applications for the energy production requires high-output cells and low cost.The aim of our work is to present a comparative study between both theoretical and experimental models of a solar cell based silicon type PHYWE (connecting four cells in series of 80 mm diameter to improve photovoltaic performance.This study led to the determination of the parameters of the cell starting from the current-voltage characteristic, the influence of luminous flow on this characteristic as well as the effect of the incidental photons on the solar cell. We justify the interest to use the model with two exponential for the optimization of the output by underlining the insufficiency of the model to one exponential.
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
GUAN Guangfeng; CONG Dacheng; HAN Junwei; LI Hongren
2007-01-01
The FRF estimator based on the errors-in-variables (EV) model of multi-input multi-output (MIMO) System is presented to reduce the bias error of FRF Hl estimator. The FRF Hl estimator is influenced by the noises in the inputs of the System and generates an under-estimation of the true FRF. The FRF estimator based on the EV model takes into account the errors in both the inputs and Outputs of the System and would lead to more accurate FRF estimation. The FRF estimator based on the EV model is applied to the waveform replication on the 6-DOF (degree-of-freedom) hydraulic Vibration table. The result shows that it is favorable to improve the control precision of the MIMO Vibration control system.
Mohammad, S. Noor
2010-09-01
Semiconductor nanotubes, including carbon nanotubes, have vast potential for new technology development. The fundamental physics and growth kinetics of these nanotubes are still obscured. Various models developed to elucidate the growth suffer from limited applicability. An in-depth investigation of the fundamentals of nanotube growth has, therefore, been carried out. For this investigation, various features of nanotube growth, and the role of the foreign element catalytic agent (FECA) in this growth, have been considered. Observed growth anomalies have been analyzed. Based on this analysis, a new shell model and a general hypothesis have been proposed for the growth. The essential element of the shell model is the seed generated from segregation during growth. The seed structure has been defined, and the formation of droplet from this seed has been described. A modified definition of the droplet exhibiting adhesive properties has also been presented. Various characteristics of the droplet, required for alignment and organization of atoms into tubular forms, have been discussed. Employing the shell model, plausible scenarios for the formation of carbon nanotubes, and the variation in the characteristics of these carbon nanotubes have been articulated. The experimental evidences, for example, for the formation of shell around a core, dipole characteristics of the seed, and the existence of nanopores in the seed, have been presented. They appear to justify the validity of the proposed model. The diversities of nanotube characteristics, fundamentals underlying the creation of bamboo-shaped carbon nanotubes, and the impurity generation on the surface of carbon nanotubes have been elucidated. The catalytic action of FECA on growth has been quantified. The applicability of the proposed model to the nanotube growth by a variety of mechanisms has been elaborated. These mechanisms include the vapor-liquid-solid mechanism, the oxide-assisted growth mechanism, the self
Analysis of electronic models for solar cells including energy resolved defect densities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Glitzky, Annegret
2010-07-01
We introduce an electronic model for solar cells including energy resolved defect densities. The resulting drift-diffusion model corresponds to a generalized van Roosbroeck system with additional source terms coupled with ODEs containing space and energy as parameters for all defect densities. The system has to be considered in heterostructures and with mixed boundary conditions from device simulation. We give a weak formulation of the problem. If the boundary data and the sources are compatible with thermodynamic equilibrium the free energy along solutions decays monotonously. In other cases it may be increasing, but we estimate its growth. We establish boundedness and uniqueness results and prove the existence of a weak solution. This is done by considering a regularized problem, showing its solvability and the boundedness of its solutions independent of the regularization level. (orig.)
Nonlinear Acoustics FDTD method including Frequency Power Law Attenuation for Soft Tissue Modeling
Jiménez, Noé; Sánchez-Morcillo, Víctor; Camarena, Francisco; Hou, Yi; Konofagou, Elisa E
2014-01-01
This paper describes a model for nonlinear acoustic wave propagation through absorbing and weakly dispersive media, and its numerical solution by means of finite differences in time domain method (FDTD). The attenuation is based on multiple relaxation processes, and provides frequency dependent absorption and dispersion without using computational expensive convolutional operators. In this way, by using an optimization algorithm the coefficients for the relaxation processes can be obtained in order to fit a frequency power law that agrees the experimentally measured attenuation data for heterogeneous media over the typical frequency range for ultrasound medical applications. Our results show that two relaxation processes are enough to fit attenuation data for most soft tissues in this frequency range including the fundamental and the first ten harmonics. Furthermore, this model can fit experimental attenuation data that do not follow exactly a frequency power law over the frequency range of interest. The main...
Particle-based modeling of heterogeneous chemical kinetics including mass transfer
Sengar, A.; Kuipers, J. A. M.; van Santen, Rutger A.; Padding, J. T.
2017-08-01
Connecting the macroscopic world of continuous fields to the microscopic world of discrete molecular events is important for understanding several phenomena occurring at physical boundaries of systems. An important example is heterogeneous catalysis, where reactions take place at active surfaces, but the effective reaction rates are determined by transport limitations in the bulk fluid and reaction limitations on the catalyst surface. In this work we study the macro-micro connection in a model heterogeneous catalytic reactor by means of stochastic rotation dynamics. The model is able to resolve the convective and diffusive interplay between participating species, while including adsorption, desorption, and reaction processes on the catalytic surface. Here we apply the simulation methodology to a simple straight microchannel with a catalytic strip. Dimensionless Damkohler numbers are used to comment on the spatial concentration profiles of reactants and products near the catalyst strip and in the bulk. We end the discussion with an outlook on more complicated geometries and increasingly complex reactions.
Models of epidemics: when contact repetition and clustering should be included
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Scholz Roland W
2009-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The spread of infectious disease is determined by biological factors, e.g. the duration of the infectious period, and social factors, e.g. the arrangement of potentially contagious contacts. Repetitiveness and clustering of contacts are known to be relevant factors influencing the transmission of droplet or contact transmitted diseases. However, we do not yet completely know under what conditions repetitiveness and clustering should be included for realistically modelling disease spread. Methods We compare two different types of individual-based models: One assumes random mixing without repetition of contacts, whereas the other assumes that the same contacts repeat day-by-day. The latter exists in two variants, with and without clustering. We systematically test and compare how the total size of an outbreak differs between these model types depending on the key parameters transmission probability, number of contacts per day, duration of the infectious period, different levels of clustering and varying proportions of repetitive contacts. Results The simulation runs under different parameter constellations provide the following results: The difference between both model types is highest for low numbers of contacts per day and low transmission probabilities. The number of contacts and the transmission probability have a higher influence on this difference than the duration of the infectious period. Even when only minor parts of the daily contacts are repetitive and clustered can there be relevant differences compared to a purely random mixing model. Conclusion We show that random mixing models provide acceptable estimates of the total outbreak size if the number of contacts per day is high or if the per-contact transmission probability is high, as seen in typical childhood diseases such as measles. In the case of very short infectious periods, for instance, as in Norovirus, models assuming repeating contacts will also behave
Boullata, Joseph I; Holcombe, Beverly; Sacks, Gordon; Gervasio, Jane; Adams, Stephen C; Christensen, Michael; Durfee, Sharon; Ayers, Phil; Marshall, Neil; Guenter, Peggi
2016-08-01
Parenteral nutrition (PN) is a high-alert medication with a complex drug use process. Key steps in the process include the review of each PN prescription followed by the preparation of the formulation. The preparation step includes compounding the PN or activating a standardized commercially available PN product. The verification and review, as well as preparation of this complex therapy, require competency that may be determined by using a standardized process for pharmacists and for pharmacy technicians involved with PN. An American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition (ASPEN) standardized model for PN order review and PN preparation competencies is proposed based on a competency framework, the ASPEN-published interdisciplinary core competencies, safe practice recommendations, and clinical guidelines, and is intended for institutions and agencies to use with their staff.
A generalized model for optimal transport of images including dissipation and density modulation
Maas, Jan
2015-11-01
© EDP Sciences, SMAI 2015. In this paper the optimal transport and the metamorphosis perspectives are combined. For a pair of given input images geodesic paths in the space of images are defined as minimizers of a resulting path energy. To this end, the underlying Riemannian metric measures the rate of transport cost and the rate of viscous dissipation. Furthermore, the model is capable to deal with strongly varying image contrast and explicitly allows for sources and sinks in the transport equations which are incorporated in the metric related to the metamorphosis approach by Trouvé and Younes. In the non-viscous case with source term existence of geodesic paths is proven in the space of measures. The proposed model is explored on the range from merely optimal transport to strongly dissipative dynamics. For this model a robust and effective variational time discretization of geodesic paths is proposed. This requires to minimize a discrete path energy consisting of a sum of consecutive image matching functionals. These functionals are defined on corresponding pairs of intensity functions and on associated pairwise matching deformations. Existence of time discrete geodesics is demonstrated. Furthermore, a finite element implementation is proposed and applied to instructive test cases and to real images. In the non-viscous case this is compared to the algorithm proposed by Benamou and Brenier including a discretization of the source term. Finally, the model is generalized to define discrete weighted barycentres with applications to textures and objects.
Yoshihara, Lena; Roth, Christian J; Wall, Wolfgang A
2017-04-01
In this article, a novel approach is presented for combining standard fluid-structure interaction with additional volumetric constraints to model fluid flow into and from homogenised solid domains. The proposed algorithm is particularly interesting for investigations in the field of respiratory mechanics as it enables the mutual coupling of airflow in the conducting part and local tissue deformation in the respiratory part of the lung by means of a volume constraint. In combination with a classical monolithic fluid-structure interaction approach, a comprehensive model of the human lung can be established that will be useful to gain new insights into respiratory mechanics in health and disease. To illustrate the validity and versatility of the novel approach, three numerical examples including a patient-specific lung model are presented. The proposed algorithm proves its capability of computing clinically relevant airflow distribution and tissue strain data at a level of detail that is not yet achievable, neither with current imaging techniques nor with existing computational models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Empirical Validation of a Thermal Model of a Complex Roof Including Phase Change Materials
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stéphane Guichard
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the empirical validation of a building thermal model of a complex roof including a phase change material (PCM. A mathematical model dedicated to PCMs based on the heat apparent capacity method was implemented in a multi-zone building simulation code, the aim being to increase the understanding of the thermal behavior of the whole building with PCM technologies. In order to empirically validate the model, the methodology is based both on numerical and experimental studies. A parametric sensitivity analysis was performed and a set of parameters of the thermal model has been identified for optimization. The use of the generic optimization program called GenOpt® coupled to the building simulation code enabled to determine the set of adequate parameters. We first present the empirical validation methodology and main results of previous work. We then give an overview of GenOpt® and its coupling with the building simulation code. Finally, once the optimization results are obtained, comparisons of the thermal predictions with measurements are found to be acceptable and are presented.
Habitability of super-Earth planets around other suns: models including Red Giant Branch evolution.
von Bloh, W; Cuntz, M; Schröder, K-P; Bounama, C; Franck, S
2009-01-01
The unexpected diversity of exoplanets includes a growing number of super-Earth planets, i.e., exoplanets with masses of up to several Earth masses and a similar chemical and mineralogical composition as Earth. We present a thermal evolution model for a 10 Earth-mass planet orbiting a star like the Sun. Our model is based on the integrated system approach, which describes the photosynthetic biomass production and takes into account a variety of climatological, biogeochemical, and geodynamical processes. This allows us to identify a so-called photosynthesis-sustaining habitable zone (pHZ), as determined by the limits of biological productivity on the planetary surface. Our model considers solar evolution during the main-sequence stage and along the Red Giant Branch as described by the most recent solar model. We obtain a large set of solutions consistent with the principal possibility of life. The highest likelihood of habitability is found for "water worlds." Only mass-rich water worlds are able to realize pHZ-type habitability beyond the stellar main sequence on the Red Giant Branch.
A transient energy function for power systems including the induction motor model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2007-01-01
A construction method for power system transient energy function is studied in the paper, which is simple and universal, and can unify the forms of some current energy functions. A transient energy function including the induction motor model is derived using the method. The unintegrable term is dealt with to get an approximate energy function. Simulations in a 3-bus system and in the WSCC 4-generator system verify the validity of the proposed energy function. The function can be applied to direct transient stability analysis of multi-machine large power systems and provides a tool for analysis of the interaction between the generator angle stability and the load voltage stability.
A laboratory model of the aortic root flow including the coronary arteries
Querzoli, Giorgio; Fortini, Stefania; Espa, Stefania; Melchionna, Simone
2016-08-01
Cardiovascular flows have been extensively investigated by means of in vitro models to assess the prosthetic valve performances and to provide insight into the fluid dynamics of the heart and proximal aorta. In particular, the models for the study of the flow past the aortic valve have been continuously improved by including, among other things, the compliance of the vessel and more realistic geometries. The flow within the sinuses of Valsalva is known to play a fundamental role in the dynamics of the aortic valve since they host a recirculation region that interacts with the leaflets. The coronary arteries originate from the ostia located within two of the three sinuses, and their presence may significantly affect the fluid dynamics of the aortic root. In spite of their importance, to the extent of the authors' knowledge, coronary arteries were not included so far when modeling in vitro the transvalvular aortic flow. We present a pulse duplicator consisting of a passively pulsing ventricle, a compliant proximal aorta, and coronary arteries connected to the sinuses of Valsalva. The coronary flow is modulated by a self-regulating device mimicking the physiological mechanism, which is based on the contraction and relaxation of the heart muscle during the cardiac cycle. Results show that the model reproduces satisfyingly the coronary flow. The analysis of the time evolution of the velocity and vorticity fields within the aortic root reveals the main characteristics of the backflow generated through the aorta in order to feed the coronaries during the diastole. Experiments without coronary flow have been run for comparison. Interestingly, the lifetime of the vortex forming in the sinus of Valsalva during the systole is reduced by the presence of the coronaries. As a matter of fact, at the end of the systole, that vortex is washed out because of the suction generated by the coronary flow. Correspondingly, the valve closure is delayed and faster compared to the case with
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
梅王星; 王艳荣
2015-01-01
English language skill is an important part of the comprehensive linguistic competence for college students. Especially the language output competence by students Autonomous Learning. During the 70s of the last century, Becker came up with the term and and later put forward his Lexical Chunks. Since then, it has been researched increasingly and paid more and more atten⁃tion to due to the fact that lexical chunks possess the features of both vocabulary and grammar. Teachers should exert lexical chunks approach, consciously raise students’awareness of lexical chunks, and design various instructional activities based on dif⁃ferent teaching contents to improve students’language output competence. In this paper, the author carries out an experiment on the college students from two classes of the same level in Grade one. And compared with the experimental class itself or with the control class, found the students in experimental class have made far greater progress in English speaking and writing.
Including sugar cane in the agro-ecosystem model ORCHIDEE-STICS
Valade, A.; Vuichard, N.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.
2010-12-01
With 4 million ha currently grown for ethanol in Brazil only, approximately half the global bioethanol production in 2005 (Smeets 2008), and a devoted land area expected to expand globally in the years to come, sugar cane is at the heart of the biofuel debate. Indeed, ethanol made from biomass is currently the most widespread option for alternative transportation fuels. It was originally promoted as a carbon neutral energy resource that could bring energy independence to countries and local opportunities to farmers, until attention was drawn to its environmental and socio-economical drawbacks. It is still not clear to which extent it is a solution or a contributor to climate change mitigation. Dynamic Global Vegetation models can help address these issues and quantify the potential impacts of biofuels on ecosystems at scales ranging from on-site to global. The global agro-ecosystem model ORCHIDEE describes water, carbon and energy exchanges at the soil-atmosphere interface for a limited number of natural and agricultural vegetation types. In order to integrate agricultural management to the simulations and to capture more accurately the specificity of crops' phenology, ORCHIDEE has been coupled with the agronomical model STICS. The resulting crop-oriented vegetation model ORCHIDEE-STICS has been used so far to simulate temperate crops such as wheat, corn and soybean. As a generic ecosystem model, each grid cell can include several vegetation types with their own phenology and management practices, making it suitable to spatial simulations. Here, ORCHIDEE-STICS is altered to include sugar cane as a new agricultural Plant functional Type, implemented and parametrized using the STICS approach. An on-site calibration and validation is then performed based on biomass and flux chamber measurements in several sites in Australia and variables such as LAI, dry weight, heat fluxes and respiration are used to evaluate the ability of the model to simulate the specific
Rivas, Elena; Lang, Raymond; Eddy, Sean R
2012-02-01
The standard approach for single-sequence RNA secondary structure prediction uses a nearest-neighbor thermodynamic model with several thousand experimentally determined energy parameters. An attractive alternative is to use statistical approaches with parameters estimated from growing databases of structural RNAs. Good results have been reported for discriminative statistical methods using complex nearest-neighbor models, including CONTRAfold, Simfold, and ContextFold. Little work has been reported on generative probabilistic models (stochastic context-free grammars [SCFGs]) of comparable complexity, although probabilistic models are generally easier to train and to use. To explore a range of probabilistic models of increasing complexity, and to directly compare probabilistic, thermodynamic, and discriminative approaches, we created TORNADO, a computational tool that can parse a wide spectrum of RNA grammar architectures (including the standard nearest-neighbor model and more) using a generalized super-grammar that can be parameterized with probabilities, energies, or arbitrary scores. By using TORNADO, we find that probabilistic nearest-neighbor models perform comparably to (but not significantly better than) discriminative methods. We find that complex statistical models are prone to overfitting RNA structure and that evaluations should use structurally nonhomologous training and test data sets. Overfitting has affected at least one published method (ContextFold). The most important barrier to improving statistical approaches for RNA secondary structure prediction is the lack of diversity of well-curated single-sequence RNA secondary structures in current RNA databases.
Chen, Chang-Kun; Li, Zhi; Sun, Yun-Feng
A new model for describing the disaster system including instantaneous and continuous action synchronously has been developed. The model is composed of three primary parts, that is, the impact from its causative disaster events, stochastic noise of disaster node and self-healing function, and every part is modeled concretely in terms of their characteristics in practice. Some key parameters, namely link appearance probability, retardation coefficient, ultimate repair capacity of government, dynamical modes considering different disaster evolving chains, and the positions of link with the specific performance in disaster network system are involved. Combined with a case study, the proposed model is applied to a certain disaster evolution system, and the influence law of different parameters on disaster evolution process, in disaster networks with instantaneous-action and/or continuous-action, is presented and compared. The results indicate that the destructive impact in the networks by link in continuous action is far greater an order of magnitude than that in instantaneous action. If a link in continuous action emerges in the disaster network system, properties of the causative event for the link, link appearance probability and its position in the network all have a notable influence to the severity of the disaster network. In addition, some peculiar phenomena are also commendably observed in the disaster evolution process based on the model, such as the multipeaks emerging in the destroyed rate number curve for some crisis nodes caused by their various inducing paths together with the relevant retardation coefficients, the existence of the critical value for ultimate repair capacity to recover the disaster node, and so on.
Moreau, Caroline; Pautas, Eric; Duverlie, Charlotte; Berndt, Celia; Andro, Marion; Mahé, Isabelle; Emmerich, Joseph; Lacut, Karine; Le Gal, Grégoire; Peyron, Isabelle; Gouin-Thibault, Isabelle; Golmard, Jean-Louis; Loriot, Marie-Anne; Siguret, Virginie
2014-04-01
Indandione VKAs have been widely used for decades, especially in Eastern Europe and France. Contrary to coumarin VKAs, the relative contribution of individual factors to the indandione-VKA response is poorly known. In the present multicentre study, we sought to develop and validate a model including genetic and non-genetic factors to predict the daily fluindione dose requirement in elderly patients in whom VKA dosing is challenging. We prospectively recorded clinical and therapeutic data in 230 Caucasian inpatients mean aged 85 ± 6 years, who had reached international normalized ratio stabilisation (range 2.0-3.0) on fluindione. In the derivation cohort (n=156), we analysed 13 polymorphisms in seven genes potentially involved in the pharmacological effect or vitamin-K cycle (VKORC1, CYP4F2, EPHX1) and fluindione metabolism/transport (CYP2C9, CYP2C19, CYP3A5, ABCB1). We built a regression model incorporating non-genetic and genetic data and evaluated the model performances in a separate cohort (n=74).Body-weight, amiodarone intake, VKORC1, CYP4F2, ABCB1 genotypes were retained in the final model, accounting for 31.5% of dose variability. None influence of CYP2C9 was observed. Our final model showed good performances: in 83.3% of the validation cohort patients, the dose was accurately predicted within 5 mg, i.e.the usual step used for adjusting fluindione dosage. In conclusion, in addition to body-weight and amiodarone-intake, pharmacogenetic factors (VKORC1, CYP4F2, ABCB1) related to the pharmacodynamic effect and transport of fluindione significantly influenced the dose requirement in elderly patients while CYP2C9 did not. Studies are required to know whether fluindione could be an alternative VKA in carriers of polymorphic CYP2C9 alleles, hypersensitive to coumarins.
ISOLATION OF HEPATIC OVAL CELLS FROM DIFFERENT MODEL RATS INCLUDING DIABETIC RATS
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LU Ying-li; YE Ting-ting; XIA Fang-zhen; WANG Ning-jian; YANG Hua; CHEN Yi
2009-01-01
Objective To acquire oval cells (progenitor stem cells) from adult rat liver of different models including diabetic rats. Methods Thirty Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats were divided into 5 groups randomly: control, 2-acetylaminofluorene (2-AAF), 2-AAF+partial hepatectomy (PH), 2-AAF+carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), and diabetic groups. As two-step collagenase perfusion protocol of Seglen, oval cells were isolated by Percoll density gradient centrifugation. Thy1.1 positive cells were sorted by flow cytometry, and then cultured in Dulbeccos minimum Eagles medium (DMEM). Immunofluorescence staining was applied to labelling Thy1.1. Results Different rates of Thy1.1 positive oval cells were found in different rat model groups: 0.5% in 2-AAF, 0.3% in 2-hAAF+PH, 0.2% in 2-AAF+CCl4 , 0.1% in diabetic, and 0.0% in control. Isolated cells adhered to plate with fusiform or polygon as epithelial cells. Conclusion Progenitor stem cells exist in injured liver tissue including those from diabetic rats.
Ribalaygua, Jaime; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert
2017-04-01
A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method's performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak).
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kumar Mandal, Sabuj, E-mail: sabujecon@gmail.co [T.A. Pai Management Institute (TAPMI), Manipal 576104, Karnataka (India); Madheswaran, S. [Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore 560072, Karnataka (India)
2010-11-15
The aim of this paper is to examine the existence and direction of the causal relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry for the period 1979-80 to 2004-05. The most recently developed panel unit root, a heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction model, is applied within a multivariate framework. The empirical results confirm a positive, long-run cointegrated relationship between output and energy consumption when heterogeneous state effects are taken into account. We also found a long-run, bi-directional relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry for the study period, implying that an increase in energy consumption directly affects the growth of this sector and that growth stimulates further energy consumption. These empirical findings imply that energy consumption and output are jointly determined and affect each other. The empirical evidence also suggests the implementation of energy conservation policies oriented toward improving energy-use efficiency to avoid any negative impacts of the conservation policies on the growth of this industry.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kumar Mandal, Sabuj [T.A. Pai Management Institute (TAPMI), Manipal 576104, Karnataka (India); Madheswaran, S. [Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore 560072, Karnataka (India)
2010-11-15
The aim of this paper is to examine the existence and direction of the causal relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry for the period 1979-80 to 2004-05. The most recently developed panel unit root, a heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction model, is applied within a multivariate framework. The empirical results confirm a positive, long-run cointegrated relationship between output and energy consumption when heterogeneous state effects are taken into account. We also found a long-run, bi-directional relationship between energy consumption and output growth in the Indian cement industry for the study period, implying that an increase in energy consumption directly affects the growth of this sector and that growth stimulates further energy consumption. These empirical findings imply that energy consumption and output are jointly determined and affect each other. The empirical evidence also suggests the implementation of energy conservation policies oriented toward improving energy-use efficiency to avoid any negative impacts of the conservation policies on the growth of this industry. (author)
Dynamic modelling and analysis of multi-machine power systems including wind farms
Tabesh, Ahmadreza
2005-11-01
This thesis introduces a small-signal dynamic model, based on a frequency response approach, for the analysis of a multi-machine power system with special focus on an induction machine based wind farm. The proposed approach is an alternative method to the conventional eigenvalue analysis method which is widely employed for small-signal dynamic analyses of power systems. The proposed modelling approach is successfully applied and evaluated for a power system that (i) includes multiple synchronous generators, and (ii) a wind farm based on either fixed-speed, variable-speed, or doubly-fed induction machine based wind energy conversion units. The salient features of the proposed method, as compared with the conventional eigenvalue analysis method, are: (i) computational efficiency since the proposed method utilizes the open-loop transfer-function matrix of the system, (ii) performance indices that are obtainable based on frequency response data and quantitatively describe the dynamic behavior of the system, and (iii) capability to formulate various wind energy conversion unit, within a wind farm, in a modular form. The developed small-signal dynamic model is applied to a set of multi-machine study systems and the results are validated based on comparison (i) with digital time-domain simulation results obtained from PSCAD/EMTDC software tool, and (ii) where applicable with eigenvalue analysis results.
A Hydrological Concept including Lateral Water Flow Compatible with the Biogeochemical Model ForSAFE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Giuliana Zanchi
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The study presents a hydrology concept developed to include lateral water flow in the biogeochemical model ForSAFE. The hydrology concept was evaluated against data collected at Svartberget in the Vindeln Research Forest in Northern Sweden. The results show that the new concept allows simulation of a saturated and an unsaturated zone in the soil as well as water flow that reaches the stream comparable to measurements. The most relevant differences compared to streamflow measurements are that the model simulates a higher base flow in winter and lower flow peaks after snowmelt. These differences are mainly caused by the assumptions made to regulate the percolation at the bottom of the simulated soil columns. The capability for simulating lateral flows and a saturated zone in ForSAFE can greatly improve the simulation of chemical exchange in the soil and export of elements from the soil to watercourses. Such a model can help improve the understanding of how environmental changes in the forest landscape will influence chemical loads to surface waters.
Modeling within-host dynamics of influenza virus infection including immune responses.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kasia A Pawelek
Full Text Available Influenza virus infection remains a public health problem worldwide. The mechanisms underlying viral control during an uncomplicated influenza virus infection are not fully understood. Here, we developed a mathematical model including both innate and adaptive immune responses to study the within-host dynamics of equine influenza virus infection in horses. By comparing modeling predictions with both interferon and viral kinetic data, we examined the relative roles of target cell availability, and innate and adaptive immune responses in controlling the virus. Our results show that the rapid and substantial viral decline (about 2 to 4 logs within 1 day after the peak can be explained by the killing of infected cells mediated by interferon activated cells, such as natural killer cells, during the innate immune response. After the viral load declines to a lower level, the loss of interferon-induced antiviral effect and an increased availability of target cells due to loss of the antiviral state can explain the observed short phase of viral plateau in which the viral level remains unchanged or even experiences a minor second peak in some animals. An adaptive immune response is needed in our model to explain the eventual viral clearance. This study provides a quantitative understanding of the biological factors that can explain the viral and interferon kinetics during a typical influenza virus infection.
Kundin, J.; Raabe, D.; Emmerich, H.
2011-10-01
If alloys undergo an incoherent martensitic transformation, then plastic accommodation and relaxation accompany the transformation. To capture these mechanisms we develop an improved 3D microelastic-plastic phase-field model. It is based on the classical concepts of phase-field modeling of microelastic problems (Chen, L.Q., Wang Y., Khachaturyan, A.G., 1992. Philos. Mag. Lett. 65, 15-23). In addition to these it takes into account the incoherent formation of accommodation dislocations in the austenitic matrix, as well as their inheritance into the martensitic plates based on the crystallography of the martensitic transformation. We apply this new phase-field approach to the butterfly-type martensitic transformation in a Fe-30 wt%Ni alloy in direct comparison to recent experimental data (Sato, H., Zaefferer, S., 2009. Acta Mater. 57, 1931-1937). It is shown that the therein proposed mechanisms of plastic accommodation during the transformation can indeed explain the experimentally observed morphology of the martensitic plates as well as the orientation between martensitic plates and the austenitic matrix. The developed phase-field model constitutes a general simulations approach for different kinds of phase transformation phenomena that inherently include dislocation based accommodation processes. The approach does not only predict the final equilibrium topology, misfit, size, crystallography, and aspect ratio of martensite-austenite ensembles resulting from a transformation, but it also resolves the associated dislocation dynamics and the distribution, and the size of the crystals itself.
Thiaw, Modou; Gascuel, Didier; Jouffre, Didier; Thiaw, Omar Thiom
2009-12-01
In Senegal, two stocks of white shrimp ( Penaeusnotialis) are intensively exploited, one in the north and another in the south. We used surplus production models including environmental effects to analyse their changes in abundance over the past 10 years and to estimate their Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the related fishing effort ( EMSY). First, yearly abundance indices were estimated from commercial statistics using GLM techniques. Then, two environmental indices were alternatively tested in the model: the coastal upwelling intensity from wind speeds provided by the SeaWifs database and the primary production derived from satellite infrared images of chlorophyll a. Models were fitted, with or without the environmental effect, to the 1996-2005 time series. They express stock abundance and catches as functions of the fishing effort and the environmental index (when considered). For the northern stock, fishing effort and abundance fluctuate over the period without any clear trends. The model based on the upwelling index explains 64.9% of the year-to-year variability. It shows that the stock was slightly overexploited in 2002-2003 and is now close to full exploitation. Stock abundance strongly depends on environmental conditions; consequently, the MSY estimate varies from 300 to 900 tons according to the upwelling intensity. For the southern stock, fishing effort has strongly increased over the past 10 years, while abundance has been reduced 4-fold. The environment has a significant effect on abundance but only explains a small part of the year-to-year variability. The best fit is obtained using the primary production index ( R2 = 0.75), and the stock is now significantly overfished regardless of environmental conditions. MSY varies from 1200 to 1800 tons according to environmental conditions. Finally, in northern Senegal, the upwelling is highly variable from year to year and constitutes the major factor determining productivity. In the south, hydrodynamic
Prechtel, Alexander; Ray, Nadja; Rupp, Andreas
2017-04-01
We want to present an approach for the mathematical, mechanistic modeling and numerical treatment of processes leading to the formation, stability, and turnover of soil micro-aggregates. This aims at deterministic aggregation models including detailed mechanistic pore-scale descriptions to account for the interplay of geochemistry and microbiology, and the link to soil functions as, e.g., the porosity. We therefore consider processes at the pore scale and the mesoscale (laboratory scale). At the pore scale transport by diffusion, advection, and drift emerging from electric forces can be taken into account, in addition to homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions of species. In the context of soil micro-aggregates the growth of biofilms or other glueing substances as EPS (extracellular polymeric substances) is important and affects the structure of the pore space in space and time. This model is upscaled mathematically in the framework of (periodic) homogenization to transfer it to the mesoscale resulting in effective coefficients/parameters there. This micro-macro model thus couples macroscopic equations that describe the transport and fluid flow at the scale of the porous medium (mesoscale) with averaged time- and space-dependent coefficient functions. These functions may be explicitly computed by means of auxiliary cell problems (microscale). Finally, the pore space in which the cell problems are defined is time and space dependent and its geometry inherits information from the transport equation's solutions. The microscale problems rely on versatile combinations of cellular automata and discontiuous Galerkin methods while on the mesoscale mixed finite elements are used. The numerical simulations allow to study the interplay between these processes.
Gabrielle, B.; Gagnaire, N.; Massad, R.; Prieur, V.; Python, Y.
2012-04-01
The potential greenhouse gas (GHG) savings resulting from the displacement of fossil energy sources by bioenergy mostly hinges on the uncertainty on the magnitude of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from arable soils occuring during feedstock production. These emissions are broadly related to fertilizer nitrogen input rates, but largely controlled by soil and climate factors which makes their estimation highly uncertain. Here, we set out to improve estimates of N2O emissions from bioenergy feedstocks by using ecosystem models and measurements and modeling of atmospheric N2O in the greater Paris (France) area. Ground fluxes were measured in two locations to assess the effect of soil type and management, crop type (including lignocellulosics such as triticale, switchgrass and miscanthus), and climate on N2O emission rates and dynamics. High-resolution maps of N2O emissions were generated over the Ile-de-France region (around Paris) with two ecosystem models using geographical databases on soils, weather data, land-use and crop management. The models were tested against ground flux measurements and the emission maps were fed into the atmospheric chemistry-transport model CHIMERE. The maps were tested by comparing the CHIMERE simulations with time series of N2O concentrations measured at various heights above the ground in two locations in 2007. The emissions of N2O, as integrated over the region, were used in a life-cycle assessment of representative biofuel pathways: bioethanol from wheat and sugar-beet (1st generation), and miscanthus (2nd generation chain); bio-diesel from oilseed rape. Effects related to direct and indirect land-use changes (in particular on soil carbon stocks) were also included in the assessment based on various land-use scenarios and literature references. The potential deployment of miscanthus was simulated by assuming it would be grown on the current sugar-beet growing area in Ile-de-France, or by converting land currently under permanent fallow
Bagherpoor, H M; Salmasi, Farzad R
2015-07-01
In this paper, robust model reference adaptive tracking controllers are considered for Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) and Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) linear systems containing modeling uncertainties, unknown additive disturbances and actuator fault. Two new lemmas are proposed for both SISO and MIMO, under which dead-zone modification rule is improved such that the tracking error for any reference signal tends to zero in such systems. In the conventional approach, adaption of the controller parameters is ceased inside the dead-zone region which results tracking error, while preserving the system stability. In the proposed scheme, control signal is reinforced with an additive term based on tracking error inside the dead-zone which results in full reference tracking. In addition, no Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) unit is needed in the proposed approach. Closed loop system stability and zero tracking error are proved by considering a suitable Lyapunov functions candidate. It is shown that the proposed control approach can assure that all the signals of the close loop system are bounded in faulty conditions. Finally, validity and performance of the new schemes have been illustrated through numerical simulations of SISO and MIMO systems in the presence of actuator faults, modeling uncertainty and output disturbance.
Validation of gyrokinetic modelling of light impurity transport including rotation in ASDEX Upgrade
Casson, F J; Angioni, C; Camenen, Y; Dux, R; Fable, E; Fischer, R; Geiger, B; Manas, P; Menchero, L; Tardini, G
2013-01-01
Upgraded spectroscopic hardware and an improved impurity concentration calculation allow accurate determination of boron density in the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak. A database of boron measurements is compared to quasilinear and nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations including Coriolis and centrifugal rotational effects over a range of H-mode plasma regimes. The peaking of the measured boron profiles shows a strong anti-correlation with the plasma rotation gradient, via a relationship explained and reproduced by the theory. It is demonstrated that the rotodiffusive impurity flux driven by the rotation gradient is required for the modelling to reproduce the hollow boron profiles at higher rotation gradients. The nonlinear simulations validate the quasilinear approach, and, with the addition of perpendicular flow shear, demonstrate that each symmetry breaking mechanism that causes momentum transport also couples to rotodiffusion. At lower rotation gradients, the parallel compressive convection is required to match the mos...
Benedetti, Fabrizio; Dorier, Julien; Burnier, Yannis; Stasiak, Andrzej
2014-03-01
Understanding the structure of interphase chromosomes is essential to elucidate regulatory mechanisms of gene expression. During recent years, high-throughput DNA sequencing expanded the power of chromosome conformation capture (3C) methods that provide information about reciprocal spatial proximity of chromosomal loci. Since 2012, it is known that entire chromatin in interphase chromosomes is organized into regions with strongly increased frequency of internal contacts. These regions, with the average size of ∼1 Mb, were named topological domains. More recent studies demonstrated presence of unconstrained supercoiling in interphase chromosomes. Using Brownian dynamics simulations, we show here that by including supercoiling into models of topological domains one can reproduce and thus provide possible explanations of several experimentally observed characteristics of interphase chromosomes, such as their complex contact maps.
Sharma, Reena; Raghuwanshi, Sanjeev Kumar
2017-02-01
Line surveillance and management information in erbium-doped fiber amplifiers (EDFAs) can be broadcast by modulating the amplitude of the low-frequency lightwave information signal, the process termed as overmodulation in the literature. This paper presents systematic solutions for the overmodulated pump and information signal transfer functions for EDFA. It includes amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) that has an impact on outcomes in the high-gain system. To the extent of our belief, the methodical model simulated with the current approach leads to a distinct perspective of an outcome in the respective field. The test bed described here is realistic. It specifically represents the overmodulation behavior in an EDFA under the influence of ASE.
Challenges of including nitrogen effects on decomposition in earth system models
Hobbie, S. E.
2011-12-01
Despite the importance of litter decomposition for ecosystem fertility and carbon balance, key uncertainties remain about how this fundamental process is affected by nitrogen (N) availability. Nevertheless, resolving such uncertainties is critical for mechanistic inclusion of such processes in earth system models, towards predicting the ecosystem consequences of increased anthropogenic reactive N. Towards that end, we have conducted a series of experiments examining nitrogen effects on litter decomposition. We found that both substrate N and externally supplied N (regardless of form) accelerated the initial decomposition rate. Faster initial decomposition rates were linked to the higher activity of carbohydrate-degrading enzymes associated with externally supplied N and the greater relative abundances of Gram negative and Gram positive bacteria associated with green leaves and externally supplied organic N (assessed using phospholipid fatty acid analysis, PLFA). By contrast, later in decomposition, externally supplied N slowed decomposition, increasing the fraction of slowly decomposing litter and reducing lignin-degrading enzyme activity and relative abundances of Gram negative and Gram positive bacteria. Our results suggest that elevated atmospheric N deposition may have contrasting effects on the dynamics of different soil carbon pools, decreasing mean residence times of active fractions comprising very fresh litter, while increasing those of more slowly decomposing fractions including more processed litter. Incorporating these contrasting effects of N on decomposition processes into models is complicated by lingering uncertainties about how these effects generalize across ecosystems and substrates.
A Model for One-Dimensional Coherent Synchrotron Radiation including Short-Range Effects
Ryne, Robert D; Qiang, Ji; Yampolsky, Nikolai
2012-01-01
A new model is presented for simulating coherent synchrotron radiation (CSR) in one dimension. The method is based on convolving an integrated Green function (IGF) with the longitudinal charge density. Since it is based on an IGF, the accuracy of this approach is determined by how well one resolves the charge density and not by resolving the single particle wake function. Since short-range wakefield effects are included analytically, the approach can be much more efficient than ordinary (non-IGF) approaches in situations where the wake function and charge density have disparate spatial scales. Two cases are presented: one derived from the full wake including short-range effects, and one derived from the asymptotic wake. In the latter case the algorithm contains the same physics as others based on the asymptotic approximation, but requires only the line charge density and not its derivative. Examples are presented that illustrate the limitations of the asymptotic-wake approximation, and that illustrate how mic...
INTERIOR MODELS OF SATURN: INCLUDING THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SHAPE AND ROTATION
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Helled, Ravit [Department of Geophysics, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv (Israel); Guillot, Tristan [Universite de Nice-Sophia Antipolis, Observatoire de la Cote d' Azur, CNRS UMR 7293, BP 4229, F-06304 Nice (France)
2013-04-20
The accurate determination of Saturn's gravitational coefficients by Cassini could provide tighter constraints on Saturn's internal structure. Also, occultation measurements provide important information on the planetary shape which is often not considered in structure models. In this paper we explore how wind velocities and internal rotation affect the planetary shape and the constraints on Saturn's interior. We show that within the geodetic approach the derived physical shape is insensitive to the assumed deep rotation. Saturn's re-derived equatorial and polar radii at 100 mbar are found to be 54,445 {+-} 10 km and 60,365 {+-} 10 km, respectively. To determine Saturn's interior, we use one-dimensional three-layer hydrostatic structure models and present two approaches to include the constraints on the shape. These approaches, however, result in only small differences in Saturn's derived composition. The uncertainty in Saturn's rotation period is more significant: with Voyager's 10{sup h}39{sup m} period, the derived mass of heavy elements in the envelope is 0-7 M{sub Circled-Plus }. With a rotation period of 10{sup h}32{sup m}, this value becomes <4 M{sub Circled-Plus }, below the minimum mass inferred from spectroscopic measurements. Saturn's core mass is found to depend strongly on the pressure at which helium phase separation occurs, and is estimated to be 5-20 M{sub Circled-Plus }. Lower core masses are possible if the separation occurs deeper than 4 Mbar. We suggest that the analysis of Cassini's radio occultation measurements is crucial to test shape models and could lead to constraints on Saturn's rotation profile and departures from hydrostatic equilibrium.
Stucki, S; Orozco-terWengel, P; Forester, B R; Duruz, S; Colli, L; Masembe, C; Negrini, R; Landguth, E; Jones, M R; Bruford, M W; Taberlet, P; Joost, S
2016-11-01
With the increasing availability of both molecular and topo-climatic data, the main challenges facing landscape genomics - that is the combination of landscape ecology with population genomics - include processing large numbers of models and distinguishing between selection and demographic processes (e.g. population structure). Several methods address the latter, either by estimating a null model of population history or by simultaneously inferring environmental and demographic effects. Here we present samβada, an approach designed to study signatures of local adaptation, with special emphasis on high performance computing of large-scale genetic and environmental data sets. samβada identifies candidate loci using genotype-environment associations while also incorporating multivariate analyses to assess the effect of many environmental predictor variables. This enables the inclusion of explanatory variables representing population structure into the models to lower the occurrences of spurious genotype-environment associations. In addition, samβada calculates local indicators of spatial association for candidate loci to provide information on whether similar genotypes tend to cluster in space, which constitutes a useful indication of the possible kinship between individuals. To test the usefulness of this approach, we carried out a simulation study and analysed a data set from Ugandan cattle to detect signatures of local adaptation with samβada, bayenv, lfmm and an FST outlier method (FDIST approach in arlequin) and compare their results. samβada - an open source software for Windows, Linux and Mac OS X available at http://lasig.epfl.ch/sambada - outperforms other approaches and better suits whole-genome sequence data processing.
Scifoni, E.; Tinganelli, W.; Weyrather, W. K.; Durante, M.; Maier, A.; Krämer, M.
2013-06-01
We present a method for adapting a biologically optimized treatment planning for particle beams to a spatially inhomogeneous tumor sensitivity due to hypoxia, and detected e.g., by PET functional imaging. The TRiP98 code, established treatment planning system for particles, has been extended for including explicitly the oxygen enhancement ratio (OER) in the biological effect calculation, providing the first set up of a dedicated ion beam treatment planning approach directed to hypoxic tumors, TRiP-OER, here reported together with experimental tests. A simple semi-empirical model for calculating the OER as a function of oxygen concentration and dose averaged linear energy transfer, generating input tables for the program is introduced. The code is then extended in order to import such tables coming from the present or alternative models, accordingly and to perform forward and inverse planning, i.e., predicting the survival response of differently oxygenated areas as well as optimizing the required dose for restoring a uniform survival effect in the whole irradiated target. The multiple field optimization results show how the program selects the best beam components for treating the hypoxic regions. The calculations performed for different ions, provide indications for the possible clinical advantages of a multi-ion treatment. Finally the predictivity of the code is tested through dedicated cell culture experiments on extended targets irradiation using specially designed hypoxic chambers, providing a qualitative agreement, despite some limits in full survival calculations arising from the RBE assessment. The comparison of the predictions resulting by using different model tables are also reported.
Analysis of Integrated Econometric and Input-Output Model%投入产出与计量经济联合模型研究
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
孟彦菊; 向蓉美
2011-01-01
经典投入产出(Input-output,IO)模型是一个线性性和确定性系统.尽管IO模型对现实经济世界的描述只是一种近似,但它所特有的细致的部门分类,能深刻揭示某一时点国民经济各部门之间的数量依存关系.计量经济(Econometric,EC)模型具有动态性优点,它能通过概率论来处理现实世界的不确定性.本文试图结合这两种模型的优点,尝试着建立EC+IO联合模型,并运用中国数据进行实证分析,结果证明联合模型能够更真实地模拟宏观经济发展,进行更准确的预测.%The classical input-output (IO) model is a popular linear and deterministic system. Although it can only approximately describe the real-world economy, IO model can reveal the dependency among different economic sectors at a particular point of time through static or cross-sectional model. On the other hand, the econometric (EC) model is a dynamic system and can deal with the uncertainty in the real economy by means of probability theory. This paper tries to integrate econometric (EC) model and input-output (IO) model to combine their advantages. An empirical study with china data was conducted and it is shown that the integrated model can simulate the macroeconomic more realistically and thus make prediction more accurately.
Costello, Christine; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott; Weber, Christopher L
2011-06-01
As populations and demands for land-intensive products, e.g., cattle and biofuels, increase the need to understand the relationship between land use and consumption grows. This paper develops a production-based inventory of land use (i.e., the land used to produce goods) in the U.S. With this inventory an input-output analysis is used to create a consumption-based inventory of land use. This allows for exploration of links between land used in production to the consumption of particular goods. For example, it is possible to estimate the amount of cropland embodied in processed foods or healthcare services. As would be expected, agricultural and forestry industries are the largest users of land in the production-based inventory. Similarly, we find that processed foods and forest products are the largest users of land in the consumption-based inventory. Somewhat less expectedly this work finds that the majority of manufacturing and service industries, not typically associated with land use, require substantial amounts of land to produce output due to the purchase of food and other agricultural and wood-based products in the supply chain. The quantitative land use results of this analysis could be integrated with qualitative metrics such as weighting schemes designed to reflect environmental impact or life cycle impact assessment methods.
Vines, Aleksander; Hamre, Torill; Lygre, Kjetil
2014-05-01
The GreenSeas project (Development of global plankton data base and model system for eco-climate early warning) aims to advance the knowledge and predictive capacities of how marine ecosystems will respond to global change. A main task has been to set up a data delivery and monitoring core service following the open and free data access policy implemented in the Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security (GMES) programme. The aim is to ensure open and free access to historical plankton data, new data (EO products and in situ measurements), model data (including estimates of simulation error) and biological, environmental and climatic indicators to a range of stakeholders, such as scientists, policy makers and environmental managers. To this end, we have developed a geo-spatial database of both historical and new in situ physical, biological and chemical parameters for the Southern Ocean, Atlantic, Nordic Seas and the Arctic, and organized related satellite-derived quantities and model forecasts in a joint geo-spatial repository. For easy access to these data, we have implemented a web-based GIS (Geographical Information Systems) where observed, derived and forcasted parameters can be searched, displayed, compared and exported. Model forecasts can also be uploaded dynamically to the system, to allow modelers to quickly compare their results with available in situ and satellite observations. We have implemented the web-based GIS(Geographical Information Systems) system based on free and open source technologies: Thredds Data Server, ncWMS, GeoServer, OpenLayers, PostGIS, Liferay, Apache Tomcat, PRTree, NetCDF-Java, json-simple, Geotoolkit, Highcharts, GeoExt, MapFish, FileSaver, jQuery, jstree and qUnit. We also wanted to used open standards to communicate between the different services and we use WMS, WFS, netCDF, GML, OPeNDAP, JSON, and SLD. The main advantage we got from using FOSS was that we did not have to invent the wheel all over again, but could use
Relationship between Multi-Output Partially Bent Functions and Multi-Output Bent Functions
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
ZHAO Yaqun; JU Guizhi; WANG Jue
2006-01-01
In this paper, the definition of multi-output partially Bent functions is presented and some properties are discussed. Then the relationship between multi-output partially Bent functions and multi-output Bent functions is given in Theorem 4, which includes Walsh spectrum expression and function expression. This shows that multi-output partially Bent functions and multi-output Bent functions can define each other in principle. So we obtain the general method to construct multi-output partially Bent functions from multi-output Bent functions.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Bent Jesper; van der Wel, Michel
of the risk premium is associated with the slope factor, and individual risk prices depend on own past values, factor realizations, and past values of other risk prices, and are significantly related to the output gap, consumption, and the equity risk price. The absence of arbitrage opportunities is strongly...... is tested, but in addition to the standard bilinear term in factor loadings and market prices of risk, the relevant mean restriction in the term structure case involves an additional nonlinear (quadratic) term in factor loadings. We estimate our general model using likelihood-based dynamic factor model...... techniques for a variety of volatility factors, and implement the relevant likelihood ratio tests. Our factor model estimates are similar across a general state space implementation and an alternative robust two-step principal components approach. The evidence favors time-varying market prices of risk. Most...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
W. Kapturkiewicz
2008-12-01
Full Text Available The, developed in this study, simple model and numerical solution of diffusion growth of the solid phase under the conditions of directional solidification allow for the effect of constituent diffusion in both liquid and solid phase and assume the process run in which (like in reality the preset parameter is the velocity of sample (pulling velocity at a preset temperature gradient. The solid/liquid interface velocity is not the process parameter (like it is in numerous other solutions proposed so far but a function of this process. The effect of convection outside the diffusion layer has been included in mass balance under the assumption that in the zone of convection the mixing is complete. The above assumptions enabled solving the kinetics of growth of the solid phase (along with the diffusion field in solid and liquid phase under the conditions of diffusion well reflecting the process run starting with the initial transient state, going through the steady state period in central part of the casting, and ending in a terminal transient state. In the numerical solution obtained by the finite difference method with variable grid dimensions, the error of the mass control balance over the whole process range was 1 - 2 %.
Walrus Bayesian State-space Model Output from the Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea, 2008-2012
U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — State-space models offer researchers an objective approach to modeling complex animal location datasets, and state-space model behavior classifications are often...
Satpathy, Preseela; Biernacki, Piotr; Cypionka, Heribert; Steinigeweg, Sven
2016-12-05
A modified Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1xp) including lactate was applied to a full-scale biogas plant. This model considers monosaccharides to degrade through lactic acid, which further degrades majorly into acetate followed by propionate and butyrate. Experimental data were derived from the previous works in the same laboratory, and the proposed parameters were validated against batch experiments. After successful validation, the biogas plant bearing a fermenter size of 7 dam(3) and operated with food waste and cattle manure was simulated. The biogas production and methane content were reliably simulated, and a good fit could be obtained against the experimental data with an average difference of less than 1%. When compared to the original ADM1 model, the performance of the lactate-incorporated model was found to be improved. Inclusion of lactate as a parameter in the ADM1xp model is recommended for an increased sensitivity and enhanced prediction principally for systems dealing with high carbohydrate and lactate loads.
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Wei Lu; Qingchun Yang; Jordi D Martín; Ricardo Juncosa
2013-04-01
During the 1990s, groundwater overexploitation has resulted in seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer of the Shenzhen city, China. Although water supply facilities have been improved and alleviated seawater intrusion in recent years, groundwater overexploitation is still of great concern in some local areas. In this work we present a three-dimensional density-dependent numerical model developed with the FEFLOW code, which is aimed at simulating the extent of seawater intrusion while including tidal effects and different groundwater pumping scenarios. Model calibration, using waterheads and reported chloride concentration, has been performed based on the data from 14 boreholes, which were monitored from May 2008 to December 2009. A fairly good fitness between the observed and computed values was obtained by a manual trial-and-error method. Model prediction has been carried out forward 3 years with the calibrated model taking into account high, medium and low tide levels and different groundwater exploitation schemes. The model results show that tide-induced seawater intrusion significantly affects the groundwater levels and concentrations near the estuarine of the Dasha river, which implies that an important hydraulic connection exists between this river and groundwater, even considering that some anti-seepage measures were taken in the river bed. Two pumping scenarios were considered in the calibrated model in order to predict the future changes in the water levels and chloride concentration. The numerical results reveal a decreased tendency of seawater intrusion if groundwater exploitation does not reach an upper bound of about 1.32 × 104 m3/d. The model results provide also insights for controlling seawater intrusion in such coastal aquifer systems.
ETM documentation update – including modelling conventions and manual for software tools
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Grohnheit, Poul Erik
, it summarises the work done during 2013, and it also contains presentations for promotion of fusion as a future element in the electricity generation mix and presentations for the modelling community concerning model development and model documentation – in particular for TIAM collaboration workshops....
Latham, J.P.; Xiang, J.; Belayneh, M.; Nick, H.M.; Tsang, C.F.; Blunt, M.J.
2013-01-01
The influence of in-situ stresses on flow processes in fractured rock is investigated using a novel modelling approach. The combined finite-discrete element method (FEMDEM) is used to model the deformation of a fractured rock mass. The fracture wall displacements and aperture changes are modelled in
A sub-circuit MOSFET model with a wide temperature range including cryogenic temperature*
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Jia Kan; Sun Weifeng; Shi Longxing
2011-01-01
A sub-circuit SPICE model ofa MOSFET for low temperature operation is presented. Two resistors are introduced for the freeze-out effect, and the explicit behavioral models are developed for them. The model can be used in a wide temperature range covering both cryogenic temperature and regular temperatures.
Including Overweight or Obese Students in Physical Education: A Social Ecological Constraint Model
Li, Weidong; Rukavina, Paul
2012-01-01
In this review, we propose a social ecological constraint model to study inclusion of overweight or obese students in physical education by integrating key concepts and assumptions from ecological constraint theory in motor development and social ecological models in health promotion and behavior. The social ecological constraint model proposes…
A methodology for including wall roughness effects in k-ε low-Reynolds turbulence models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ambrosini, W., E-mail: walter.ambrosini@ing.unipi.it; Pucciarelli, A.; Borroni, I.
2015-05-15
Highlights: • A model for taking into account wall roughness in low-Reynolds k-ε models is presented. • The model is subjected to a first validation to show its potential in general applications. • The application of the model in predicting heat transfer to supercritical fluids is also discussed. - Abstract: A model accounting for wall roughness effects in k-ε low-Reynolds turbulence models is described in the present paper. In particular, the introduction in the transport equations of k and ε of additional source terms related to roughness, based on simple assumptions and dimensional relationships, is proposed. An objective of the present paper, in addition to obtaining more realistic predictions of wall friction, is the application of the proposed model to the study of heat transfer to supercritical fluids. A first validation of the model is reported. The model shows the capability of predicting, at least qualitatively, some of the most important trends observed when dealing with rough pipes in very different flow conditions. Qualitative comparisons with some DNS data available in literature are also performed. Further analyses provided promising results concerning the ability of the model in reproducing the trend of friction factor when varying the flow conditions, though improvements are necessary for achieving better quantitative accuracy. First applications of the model in simulating heat transfer to supercritical fluids are also described, showing the capability of the model to affect the predictions of these heat transfer phenomena, in particular in the vicinity of the pseudo-critical conditions. A more extended application of the model to relevant deteriorated heat transfer conditions will clarify the usefulness of this modelling methodology in improving predictions of these difficult phenomena. Whatever the possible success in this particular application that motivated its development, this approach suggests a general methodology for accounting
Crop Insurance, Premium Subsidy and Agricultural Output
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
XU Jing-feng; LIAO Pu
2014-01-01
This paper studied the effects of crop insurance on agricultural output with an economic growth model. Based on Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans (RCK) model, a basic model of agriculture economic growth was developed. Extending the basic model to incorporate uncertainty and insurance mechanism, a risk model and a risk-insurance model were built to study the inlfuences of risk and crop insurance on agricultural output. Compared with the steady states of the three models, the following results are achieved:(i) agricultural output decreases if we introduce uncertainty into the risk-free model;(ii) crop insurance promotes agriculture economic growth if insurance mechanism is introduced into the risk model;(iii) premium subsidy constantly improves agricultural output. Our contribution is that we studied the effects of crop insurance and premium subsidy from the perspective of economic growth in a dynamic framework, and proved the output promotion of crop insurance theoretically.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hiatt, Jessica R. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rhode Island Hospital, The Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02903 (United States); Davis, Stephen D. [Department of Medical Physics, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1A4 (Canada); Rivard, Mark J., E-mail: mark.j.rivard@gmail.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts 02111 (United States)
2015-06-15
Purpose: The model S700 Axxent electronic brachytherapy source by Xoft, Inc., was characterized by Rivard et al. in 2006. Since then, the source design was modified to include a new insert at the source tip. Current study objectives were to establish an accurate source model for simulation purposes, dosimetrically characterize the new source and obtain its TG-43 brachytherapy dosimetry parameters, and determine dose differences between the original simulation model and the current model S700 source design. Methods: Design information from measurements of dissected model S700 sources and from vendor-supplied CAD drawings was used to aid establishment of an updated Monte Carlo source model, which included the complex-shaped plastic source-centering insert intended to promote water flow for cooling the source anode. These data were used to create a model for subsequent radiation transport simulations in a water phantom. Compared to the 2006 simulation geometry, the influence of volume averaging close to the source was substantially reduced. A track-length estimator was used to evaluate collision kerma as a function of radial distance and polar angle for determination of TG-43 dosimetry parameters. Results for the 50 kV source were determined every 0.1 cm from 0.3 to 15 cm and every 1° from 0° to 180°. Photon spectra in water with 0.1 keV resolution were also obtained from 0.5 to 15 cm and polar angles from 0° to 165°. Simulations were run for 10{sup 10} histories, resulting in statistical uncertainties on the transverse plane of 0.04% at r = 1 cm and 0.06% at r = 5 cm. Results: The dose-rate distribution ratio for the model S700 source as compared to the 2006 model exceeded unity by more than 5% for roughly one quarter of the solid angle surrounding the source, i.e., θ ≥ 120°. The radial dose function diminished in a similar manner as for an {sup 125}I seed, with values of 1.434, 0.636, 0.283, and 0.0975 at 0.5, 2, 5, and 10 cm, respectively. The radial dose
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) has been developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center,...