WorldWideScience

Sample records for model outputs include

  1. CMAQ Model Output

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ and CMAQ-VBS model output. This dataset is not publicly accessible because: Files too large. It can be accessed through the following means: via EPA's NCC tape...

  2. WRF Model Output

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains WRF model output. There are three months of data: July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. For each month, several simulations were made: A...

  3. Model output: fact or artefact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke

    2015-04-01

    As a third-year PhD-student, I relatively recently entered the wonderful world of scientific Hydrology. A science that has many pillars that directly impact society, for example with the prediction of hydrological extremes (both floods and drought), climate change, applications in agriculture, nature conservation, drinking water supply, etcetera. Despite its demonstrable societal relevance, hydrology is often seen as a science between two stools. Like Klemeš (1986) stated: "By their academic background, hydrologists are foresters, geographers, electrical engineers, geologists, system analysts, physicists, mathematicians, botanists, and most often civil engineers." Sometimes it seems that the engineering genes are still present in current hydrological sciences, and this results in pragmatic rather than scientific approaches for some of the current problems and challenges we have in hydrology. Here, I refer to the uncertainty in hydrological modelling that is often neglected. For over thirty years, uncertainty in hydrological models has been extensively discussed and studied. But it is not difficult to find peer-reviewed articles in which it is implicitly assumed that model simulations represent the truth rather than a conceptualization of reality. For instance in trend studies, where data is extrapolated 100 years ahead. Of course one can use different forcing datasets to estimate the uncertainty of the input data, but how to prevent that the output is not a model artefact, caused by the model structure? Or how about impact studies, e.g. of a dam impacting river flow. Measurements are often available for the period after dam construction, so models are used to simulate river flow before dam construction. Both are compared in order to qualify the effect of the dam. But on what basis can we tell that the model tells us the truth? Model validation is common nowadays, but validation only (comparing observations with model output) is not sufficient to assume that a

  4. Multi-model MPC with output feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Perez

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a new formulation is presented for the model predictive control (MPC of a process system that is represented by a finite set of models, each one corresponding to a different operating point. The general case is considered of systems with stable and integrating outputs in closed-loop with output feedback. For this purpose, the controller is based on a non-minimal order model where the state is built with the measured outputs and the manipulated inputs of the control system. Therefore, the state can be considered as perfectly known and, consequently, there is no need to include a state observer in the control loop. This property of the proposed modeling approach is convenient to extend previous stability results of the closed loop system with robust MPC controllers based on state feedback. The controller proposed here is based on the solution of two optimization problems that are solved sequentially at the same time step. The method is illustrated with a simulated example of the process industry. The rigorous simulation of the control of an adiabatic flash of a multi-component hydrocarbon mixture illustrates the application of the robust controller. The dynamic simulation of this process is performed using EMSO - Environment Model Simulation and Optimization. Finally, a comparison with a linear MPC using a single model is presented.

  5. Research Output, Socialization, and the Biglan Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, John W.; Bean, John P.

    1981-01-01

    A test of the Biglan model of faculty subcultures using measures of research output and tests of the model controlling for the effects of faculty socialization are described. The Biglan model is found to be valid, and the distinctiveness of the Biglan groups appears to increase with the socialization of faculty into subject areas. (Author/MLW)

  6. Problems in Modelling Charge Output Accelerometers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomczyk Krzysztof

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents major issues associated with the problem of modelling change output accelerometers. The presented solutions are based on the weighted least squares (WLS method using transformation of the complex frequency response of the sensors. The main assumptions of the WLS method and a mathematical model of charge output accelerometers are presented in first two sections of this paper. In the next sections applying the WLS method to estimation of the accelerometer model parameters is discussed and the associated uncertainties are determined. Finally, the results of modelling a PCB357B73 charge output accelerometer are analysed in the last section of this paper. All calculations were executed using the MathCad software program. The main stages of these calculations are presented in Appendices A−E.

  7. Stock assessment model outputs for ICCAT (International) managed species

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Includes outputs from the various models run in the evaluation of stock status for species managed by the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic...

  8. Modelling Waste Output from Trout Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, J. O.; From, J.; Larsen, Torben

    1995-01-01

    to calculate waste discharge from existing and planned aquaculture activities. A special purpose is simulating outcome of waste water treatment and altered feeding programmes. Different submodels must be applied for P, N, and organics, as well as for the different phases of food and waste treatment. Altogether......The aim of waste modelling in aquaculture is to provide tools for simulating input, transformation, output and subsidiary degradation in recipients of organic compounds, nitrogen, and phosphorus. The direct purpose of this modelling is to make it possible for caretakers and water authorities...

  9. Input-output linearizing tracking control of induction machine with the included magnetic saturation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dolinar, Drago; Ljusev, Petar; Stumberger, Gorazd

    2003-01-01

    The tracking control design of an induction motor, based on input-output linearisation with magnetic saturation included is addressed. The magnetic saturation is represented by a nonlinear magnetising curve for the iron core and is used in the control, the observer of the state variables, and in ...

  10. Impact of model defect and experimental uncertainties on evaluated output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neudecker, D.; Capote, R.; Leeb, H.

    2013-01-01

    One of the current major problems in nuclear data evaluation is the unreasonably small evaluated uncertainties often obtained. These small uncertainties are partly attributed to missing correlations of experimental uncertainties as well as to deficiencies of the model employed for the prior information. In this article, both uncertainty sources are included in an evaluation of 55 Mn cross-sections for incident neutrons. Their impact on the evaluated output is studied using a prior obtained by the Full Bayesian Evaluation Technique and a prior obtained by the nuclear model program EMPIRE. It is shown analytically and by means of an evaluation that unreasonably small evaluated uncertainties can be obtained not only if correlated systematic uncertainties of the experiment are neglected but also if prior uncertainties are smaller or about the same magnitude as the experimental ones. Furthermore, it is shown that including model defect uncertainties in the evaluation of 55 Mn leads to larger evaluated uncertainties for channels where the model is deficient. It is concluded that including correlated experimental uncertainties is equally important as model defect uncertainties, if the model calculations deviate significantly from the measurements. -- Highlights: • We study possible causes of unreasonably small evaluated nuclear data uncertainties. • Two different formulations of model defect uncertainties are presented and compared. • Smaller prior than experimental uncertainties cause too small evaluated ones. • Neglected correlations of experimental uncertainties cause too small evaluated ones. • Including model defect uncertainties in the prior improves the evaluated output

  11. A didactic Input-Output model for territorial ecology analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Garry Mcdonald

    2010-01-01

    This report describes a didactic input-output modelling framework created jointly be the team at REEDS, Universite de Versailles and Dr Garry McDonald, Director, Market Economics Ltd. There are three key outputs associated with this framework: (i) a suite of didactic input-output models developed in Microsoft Excel, (ii) a technical report (this report) which describes the framework and the suite of models1, and (iii) a two week intensive workshop dedicated to the training of REEDS researcher...

  12. ON MODELING METHODS OF REPRODUCTION OF FIXED ASSETS IN DYNAMIC INPUT - OUTPUT MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baranov A. O.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a comparative study of methods for modeling reproduction of fixed assets in various types of dynamic input-output models, which have been developed at the Novosibirsk State University and at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Division of Russian Academy of Sciences. The study compares the technique of information providing for the investment blocks of the models. Considered in detail mathematical description of the block of fixed assets reproduction in the Dynamic Input - Output Model included in the KAMIN system and the optimization interregional input - output model. Analyzes the peculiarities of information support of investment and fixed assets blocks of the Dynamic Input - Output Model included in the KAMIN system and the optimization interregional input - output model. In conclusion of the article provides suggestions for joint use of the analyzed models for Russian economy development forecasting. Provided the use of the KAMIN system’s models for short-term and middle-term forecasting and the optimization interregional input - output model to develop long-term forecasts based on the spatial structure of the economy.

  13. A two stage data envelopment analysis model with undesirable output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shariff Adli Aminuddin, Adam; Izzati Jaini, Nur; Mat Kasim, Maznah; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd

    2017-09-01

    The dependent relationship among the decision making units (DMU) is usually assumed to be non-existent in the development of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. The dependency can be represented by the multi-stage DEA model, where the outputs from the precedent stage will be the inputs for the latter stage. The multi-stage DEA model evaluate both the efficiency score for each stages and the overall efficiency of the whole process. The existing multi stage DEA models do not focus on the integration with the undesirable output, in which the higher input will generate lower output unlike the normal desirable output. This research attempts to address the inclusion of such undesirable output and investigate the theoretical implication and potential application towards the development of multi-stage DEA model.

  14. NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the original model output data submissions from the 24 terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) that participated in the North American...

  15. NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the original model output data submissions from the 24 terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) that participated in the North American Carbon...

  16. The multi-factor energy input–output model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guevara, Zeus; Domingos, Tiago

    2017-01-01

    Energy input–output analysis (EIO analysis) is a noteworthy tool for the analysis of the role of energy in the economy. However, it has relied on models that provide a limited description of energy flows in the economic system and do not allow an adequate analysis of energy efficiency. This paper introduces a novel energy input–output model, the multi-factor energy input–output model (MF-EIO model), which is obtained from a partitioning of a hybrid-unit input–output system of the economy. This model improves on current models by describing the energy flows according to the processes of energy conversion and the levels of energy use in the economy. It characterizes the vector of total energy output as a function of seven factors: two energy efficiency indicators; two characteristics of end-use energy consumption; and three economic features of the rest of the economy. Moreover, it is consistent with the standard model for EIO analysis, i.e., the hybrid-unit model. This paper also introduces an approximate version of the MF-EIO model, which is equivalent to the former under equal energy prices for industries and final consumers, but requires less data processing. The latter is composed by two linked models: a model of the energy sector in physical units, and a model of the rest of the economy in monetary units. In conclusion, the proposed modelling framework improves EIO analysis and extends EIO applications to the accounting for energy efficiency of the economy. - Highlights: • A novel energy input–output model is introduced. • It allows a more adequate analysis of energy flows than current models. • It describes energy flows according to processes of energy conversion and use. • It can be used for other environmental applications (material use and emissions). • An approximate version of the model is introduced, simpler and less data intensive.

  17. Space market model space industry input-output model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgin, Robert F.; Marchesini, Roberto

    1987-01-01

    The goal of the Space Market Model (SMM) is to develop an information resource for the space industry. The SMM is intended to contain information appropriate for decision making in the space industry. The objectives of the SMM are to: (1) assemble information related to the development of the space business; (2) construct an adequate description of the emerging space market; (3) disseminate the information on the space market to forecasts and planners in government agencies and private corporations; and (4) provide timely analyses and forecasts of critical elements of the space market. An Input-Output model of market activity is proposed which are capable of transforming raw data into useful information for decision makers and policy makers dealing with the space sector.

  18. System convergence in transport models: algorithms efficiency and output uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2015-01-01

    of this paper is to analyse convergence performance for the external loop and to illustrate how an improper linkage between the converging parts can lead to substantial uncertainty in the final output. Although this loop is crucial for the performance of large-scale transport models it has not been analysed......-scale in the Danish National Transport Model (DNTM). It is revealed that system convergence requires that either demand or supply is without random noise but not both. In that case, if MSA is applied to the model output with random noise, it will converge effectively as the random effects are gradually dampened...... in the MSA process. In connection to DNTM it is shown that MSA works well when applied to travel-time averaging, whereas trip averaging is generally infected by random noise resulting from the assignment model. The latter implies that the minimum uncertainty in the final model output is dictated...

  19. Appropriatie spatial scales to achieve model output uncertainty goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Melching, Charles S.; Chen, Xiaohong; Chen, Yongqin; Xia, Jun; Zhang, Hailun

    2008-01-01

    Appropriate spatial scales of hydrological variables were determined using an existing methodology based on a balance in uncertainties from model inputs and parameters extended with a criterion based on a maximum model output uncertainty. The original methodology uses different relationships between

  20. Linearised model for PV panel power output variation with changes ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    PALLAVI BHARADWAJ

    2017-10-26

    Oct 26, 2017 ... which can be the PV panel current or the real power. In this work a linearised model is derived to relate the change in system input, namely: irradiance and temperature, with its output, namely: array current and power. The proposed model is experimentally verified with tests run on PV panels, when they are ...

  1. Multiple shooting applied to robust reservoir control optimization including output constraints on coherent risk measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Codas, Andrés; Hanssen, Kristian G.; Foss, Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    . In this work, we propose a new formulation for robust optimization of reservoir well controls. It is inspired by the multiple shooting (MS) method which permits a broad range of parallelization opportunities and output constraint handling. This formulation exploits coherent risk measures, a concept...... traditionally used in finance, to bound the risk on constraint violation. We propose a reduced sequential quadratic programming (rSQP) algorithm to solve the underlying optimization problem. This algorithm exploits the structure of the coherent risk measures, thus a large set of constraints are solved within...... sub-problems. Moreover, a variable elimination procedure allows solving the optimization problem in a reduced space and an iterative active-set method helps to handle a large set of inequality constraints. Finally, we demonstrate the application of constraints to bound the risk of water production...

  2. Investigation of solar photovoltaic module power output by various models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakhrani, A.Q.; Othman, A.K.; Rigit, A.R.H.; Baini, R.

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims to investigate the power output of a solar photovoltaic module by various models and to formulate a suitable model for predicting the performance of solar photovoltaic modules. The model was used to correct the configurations of solar photovoltaic systems for sustainable power supply. Different types of models namely the efficiency, power, fill factor and current-voltage characteristic curve models have been reviewed. It was found that the examined models predicted a 40% yield of the rated power in cloudy weather conditions and up to 80% in clear skies. The models performed well in terms of electrical efficiency in cloudy days if the influence of low irradiance were incorporated. Both analytical and numerical methods were employed in the formulation of improved model which gave +- 2% error when compared with the rated power output of solar photovoltaic module. The proposed model is more practical in terms of number of variables used and acceptable performance in humid atmospheres. Therefore, it could be useful for the estimation of power output of the solar photovoltaic systems in Sarawak region. (author)

  3. Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar, E-mail: sahubar@uum.edu.my; Ramli, Razamin, E-mail: razamin@uum.edu.my; Baten, M. D. Azizul, E-mail: baten-math@yahoo.com [School of Quantitative Sciences, UUM College of Arts and Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010 Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia)

    2015-12-11

    Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers’ efficiency.

  4. Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers' efficiency.

  5. The GFDL Data Portal: a Doorway to Sharing Model Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrien, K. M.; Hankin, S.; Callahan, J.; Balaji, V.; Schweitzer, R.; McLean, J.; Wei, Y.; Manke, A.

    2004-12-01

    In response to increasing community interest in the output of models run at GFDL, we have embarked upon the design of a data portal for sharing numerical model output. Effective sharing of model output requires software standards and tools and then utilizing those tools to build data portals. Among the tools that the GFDL data portal will utilize is the Live Access Server (LAS). LAS is a visualization and analysis tool which allows: presentation of a multitude of variables in an orderly way by easily defining and customizing arbitrary hierarchies; location of datasets and variables of interest from among thousands offered without navigating the complete dataset hierarchy; easy intercomparison of model results (http://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/LAS). The OPeNDAP framework (http://www.opendap.org) will also be a key component in the GFDL data portal. This framework provides local data access to remote data, regardless of the remote storage format, and will allow for intercomparison of model results between groups of users. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) is a partner in the NASA-funded development of the Earth Systems Modeling Framework (ESMF) collaboration (http://www.esmf.ucar.edu). The ESMF is an effort to greatly improve coordination in the advancement of climate models through the development of a community framework to couple model components (http://www.esmf.ucar.edu). Working with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP, http://go-essp.gfdl.noaa.gov), the goal is to develop a software infrastructure using agreed-upon standards to provide distributed access to observed and simulated data from climate and weather communities. In this presentation we will discuss the GFDL data portal, the web site(s) through which many model outputs from GFDL are accessible, and its underlying standards and tools.

  6. A Hierarchical Multi-Output Nearest Neighbor Model for Multi-Output Dependence Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Morris, Richard G.; Martinez, Tony; Smith, Michael R.

    2014-01-01

    Multi-Output Dependence (MOD) learning is a generalization of standard classification problems that allows for multiple outputs that are dependent on each other. A primary issue that arises in the context of MOD learning is that for any given input pattern there can be multiple correct output patterns. This changes the learning task from function approximation to relation approximation. Previous algorithms do not consider this problem, and thus cannot be readily applied to MOD problems. To pe...

  7. Modeling the power output of piezoelectric energy harvesters

    KAUST Repository

    Al Ahmad, Mahmoud

    2011-04-30

    Design of experiments and multiphysics analyses were used to develop a parametric model for a d 33-based cantilever. The analysis revealed that the most significant parameters influencing the resonant frequency are the supporting layer thickness, piezoelectric layer thickness, and cantilever length. On the other hand, the most important factors affecting the charge output arethe piezoelectric thickness and the interdigitated electrode dimensions. The accuracy of the developed model was confirmed and showed less than 1% estimation error compared with a commercial simulation package. To estimate the power delivered to a load, the electric current output from the piezoelectric generator was calculated. A circuit model was built and used to estimate the power delivered to a load, which compared favorably to experimentally published power data on actual cantilevers of similar dimensions. © 2011 TMS.

  8. An Advanced simulation Code for Modeling Inductive Output Tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuc Bui; R. Lawrence Ives

    2012-04-27

    During the Phase I program, CCR completed several major building blocks for a 3D large signal, inductive output tube (IOT) code using modern computer language and programming techniques. These included a 3D, Helmholtz, time-harmonic, field solver with a fully functional graphical user interface (GUI), automeshing and adaptivity. Other building blocks included the improved electrostatic Poisson solver with temporal boundary conditions to provide temporal fields for the time-stepping particle pusher as well as the self electric field caused by time-varying space charge. The magnetostatic field solver was also updated to solve for the self magnetic field caused by time changing current density in the output cavity gap. The goal function to optimize an IOT cavity was also formulated, and the optimization methodologies were investigated.

  9. Evacuation emergency response model coupling atmospheric release advisory capability output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, L.C.; Lawver, B.S.; Buckley, D.W.; Finn, S.P.; Swenson, J.B.

    1983-01-01

    A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) sponsored project to develop a coupled set of models between those of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) system and candidate evacuation models is discussed herein. This report describes the ARAC system and discusses the rapid computer code developed and the coupling with ARAC output. The computer code is adapted to the use of color graphics as a means to display and convey the dynamics of an emergency evacuation. The model is applied to a specific case of an emergency evacuation of individuals surrounding the Rancho Seco Nuclear Power Plant, located approximately 25 miles southeast of Sacramento, California. The graphics available to the model user for the Rancho Seco example are displayed and noted in detail. Suggestions for future, potential improvements to the emergency evacuation model are presented

  10. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  11. A Markovian model of evolving world input-output network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Moosavi

    Full Text Available The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, so far there has not been a full investigation of evolving world economic networks with Markov chain formalism. In this work, using the recently available world input-output database, we investigated the evolution of the world economic network from 1995 to 2011 through analysis of a time series of finite Markov chains. We assessed different aspects of this evolving system via different known properties of the Markov chains such as mixing time, Kemeny constant, steady state probabilities and perturbation analysis of the transition matrices. First, we showed how the time series of mixing times and Kemeny constants could be used as an aggregate index of globalization. Next, we focused on the steady state probabilities as a measure of structural power of the economies that are comparable to GDP shares of economies as the traditional index of economies welfare. Further, we introduced two measures of systemic risk, called systemic influence and systemic fragility, where the former is the ratio of number of influenced nodes to the total number of nodes, caused by a shock in the activity of a node, and the latter is based on the number of times a specific economic node is affected by a shock in the activity of any of the other nodes. Finally, focusing on Kemeny constant as a global indicator of monetary flow across the network, we showed that there is a paradoxical effect of a change in activity levels of economic nodes on the overall flow of the world economic network. While the economic slowdown of the majority of nodes with high structural power results to a slower average monetary flow over the network, there are some nodes, where their slowdowns improve the overall quality of the network in terms of connectivity and the average flow of the money.

  12. A Markovian model of evolving world input-output network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosavi, Vahid; Isacchini, Giulio

    2017-01-01

    The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, so far there has not been a full investigation of evolving world economic networks with Markov chain formalism. In this work, using the recently available world input-output database, we investigated the evolution of the world economic network from 1995 to 2011 through analysis of a time series of finite Markov chains. We assessed different aspects of this evolving system via different known properties of the Markov chains such as mixing time, Kemeny constant, steady state probabilities and perturbation analysis of the transition matrices. First, we showed how the time series of mixing times and Kemeny constants could be used as an aggregate index of globalization. Next, we focused on the steady state probabilities as a measure of structural power of the economies that are comparable to GDP shares of economies as the traditional index of economies welfare. Further, we introduced two measures of systemic risk, called systemic influence and systemic fragility, where the former is the ratio of number of influenced nodes to the total number of nodes, caused by a shock in the activity of a node, and the latter is based on the number of times a specific economic node is affected by a shock in the activity of any of the other nodes. Finally, focusing on Kemeny constant as a global indicator of monetary flow across the network, we showed that there is a paradoxical effect of a change in activity levels of economic nodes on the overall flow of the world economic network. While the economic slowdown of the majority of nodes with high structural power results to a slower average monetary flow over the network, there are some nodes, where their slowdowns improve the overall quality of the network in terms of connectivity and the average flow of the money.

  13. Rice growing farmers efficiency measurement using a slack based interval DEA model with undesirable outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul

    2017-11-01

    In recent years eco-efficiency which considers the effect of production process on environment in determining the efficiency of firms have gained traction and a lot of attention. Rice farming is one of such production processes which typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable. In efficiency analysis, these undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in the model to obtain the actual estimation of firm's efficiency. There are numerous approaches that have been used in data envelopment analysis (DEA) literature to account for undesirable outputs of which directional distance function (DDF) approach is the most widely used as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, slack based DDF DEA approaches considers the output shortfalls and input excess in determining efficiency. In situations when data uncertainty is present, the deterministic DEA model is not suitable to be used as the effects of uncertain data will not be considered. In this case, it has been found that interval data approach is suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding the underlying data distribution and membership function. The proposed model uses an enhanced DEA model which is based on DDF approach and incorporates slack based measure to determine efficiency in the presence of undesirable factors and data uncertainty. Interval data approach was used to estimate the values of inputs, undesirable outputs and desirable outputs. Two separate slack based interval DEA models were constructed for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The developed model was used to determine rice farmers efficiency from Kepala Batas, Kedah. The obtained results were later compared to the results obtained using a deterministic DDF DEA model. The study found that 15 out of 30 farmers are efficient in all cases. It

  14. Output and inflation in models of the business cycle with\\ud nominal rigidities: some counterfactual evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Paez-Farrell, Juan; Cardiff University

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between cyclical output and inflation in models commonly used for monetary policy analysis. This includes models that incorporate the New Keynesian, Fuhrer-Moore and backward-looking Phillips curves. The main finding is that these models imply a strong negative relationship between inflation and output, a result that is at odds with the data. The fact that New Keynesian models yield counterfactual implications is not new; the novelty of the paper lies in t...

  15. NACP Regional: Gridded 1-deg Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains standardized gridded observation data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations of carbon flux...

  16. NACP Regional: Gridded 1-deg Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains standardized gridded observation data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations of carbon flux parameters that...

  17. NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that various...

  18. NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that...

  19. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  20. SEEPAGE MODEL FOR PA INCLUDING DRIFT COLLAPSE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    C. Tsang

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the predictions and analyses performed using the seepage model for performance assessment (SMPA) for both the Topopah Spring middle nonlithophysal (Tptpmn) and lower lithophysal (Tptpll) lithostratigraphic units at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Look-up tables of seepage flow rates into a drift (and their uncertainty) are generated by performing numerical simulations with the seepage model for many combinations of the three most important seepage-relevant parameters: the fracture permeability, the capillary-strength parameter 1/a, and the percolation flux. The percolation flux values chosen take into account flow focusing effects, which are evaluated based on a flow-focusing model. Moreover, multiple realizations of the underlying stochastic permeability field are conducted. Selected sensitivity studies are performed, including the effects of an alternative drift geometry representing a partially collapsed drift from an independent drift-degradation analysis (BSC 2004 [DIRS 166107]). The intended purpose of the seepage model is to provide results of drift-scale seepage rates under a series of parameters and scenarios in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). The SMPA is intended for the evaluation of drift-scale seepage rates under the full range of parameter values for three parameters found to be key (fracture permeability, the van Genuchten 1/a parameter, and percolation flux) and drift degradation shape scenarios in support of the TSPA-LA during the period of compliance for postclosure performance [Technical Work Plan for: Performance Assessment Unsaturated Zone (BSC 2002 [DIRS 160819], Section I-4-2-1)]. The flow-focusing model in the Topopah Spring welded (TSw) unit is intended to provide an estimate of flow focusing factors (FFFs) that (1) bridge the gap between the mountain-scale and drift-scale models, and (2) account for variability in local percolation flux due to

  1. CONSTRUCTION OF A DYNAMIC INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL WITH A HUMAN CAPITAL BLOCK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baranov A. O.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The accumulation of human capital is an important factor of economic growth. It seems to be useful to include «human capital» as a factor of a macroeconomic model, as it helps to take into account the quality differentiation of the workforce. Most of the models usually distinguish labor force by the levels of education, while some of the factors remain unaccounted. Among them are health status and culture development level, which influence productivity level as well as gross product reproduction. Inclusion of the human capital block to the interindustry model can help to make it more reliable for economic development forecasting. The article presents a mathematical description of the extended dynamic input-output model (DIOM with a human capital block. The extended DIOM is based on the Input-Output Model from The KAMIN system (the System of Integrated Analyses of Interindustrial Information developed at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences of the Russian Federation and at the Novosibirsk State University. The extended input-output model can be used to analyze and forecast development of Russian economy.

  2. Linearised model for PV panel power output variation with changes ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    PALLAVI BHARADWAJ

    This equivalent resistance represents the load seen at the PV panel terminals. It is dependent on the actual power drawn by the system and the interfacing converter between the PV panels and the load. Thus it is a function of the converter duty ratio and load characteristics. Due to the disturbance, output characteristics of ...

  3. Grand unified models including extra Z bosons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Tiezhong

    1989-01-01

    The grand unified theories (GUT) of the simple Lie groups including extra Z bosons are discussed. Under authors's hypothesis there are only SU 5+m SO 6+4n and E 6 groups. The general discussion of SU 5+m is given, then the SU 6 and SU 7 are considered. In SU 6 the 15+6 * +6 * fermion representations are used, which are not same as others in fermion content, Yukawa coupling and broken scales. A conception of clans of particles, which are not families, is suggested. These clans consist of extra Z bosons and the corresponding fermions of the scale. The all of fermions in the clans are down quarks except for the standard model which consists of Z bosons and 15 fermions, therefore, the spectrum of the hadrons which are composed of these down quarks are different from hadrons at present

  4. THE COMPILATION OF CHINA’S INTERREGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL 2002

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Zhuoying; Shi, Minjun; Zhao, Zhao

    2015-01-01

    The increasing economic interaction among various regions in China makes the construction of an interregional input–output table relevant for economic studies. This paper elaborates the model compilation procedure of the China Interregional Input–output model 2002. The key features of the model

  5. Models of asthma: density-equalizing mapping and output benchmarking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fischer Tanja C

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Despite the large amount of experimental studies already conducted on bronchial asthma, further insights into the molecular basics of the disease are required to establish new therapeutic approaches. As a basis for this research different animal models of asthma have been developed in the past years. However, precise bibliometric data on the use of different models do not exist so far. Therefore the present study was conducted to establish a data base of the existing experimental approaches. Density-equalizing algorithms were used and data was retrieved from a Thomson Institute for Scientific Information database. During the period from 1900 to 2006 a number of 3489 filed items were connected to animal models of asthma, the first being published in the year 1968. The studies were published by 52 countries with the US, Japan and the UK being the most productive suppliers, participating in 55.8% of all published items. Analyzing the average citation per item as an indicator for research quality Switzerland ranked first (30.54/item and New Zealand ranked second for countries with more than 10 published studies. The 10 most productive journals included 4 with a main focus allergy and immunology and 4 with a main focus on the respiratory system. Two journals focussed on pharmacology or pharmacy. In all assigned subject categories examined for a relation to animal models of asthma, immunology ranked first. Assessing numbers of published items in relation to animal species it was found that mice were the preferred species followed by guinea pigs. In summary it can be concluded from density-equalizing calculations that the use of animal models of asthma is restricted to a relatively small number of countries. There are also differences in the use of species. These differences are based on variations in the research focus as assessed by subject category analysis.

  6. An Integrated Biochemistry Laboratory, Including Molecular Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Adele J. Wolfson Mona L.; Branham, Thomas R.

    1996-11-01

    ) experience with methods of protein purification; (iii) incorporation of appropriate controls into experiments; (iv) use of basic statistics in data analysis; (v) writing papers and grant proposals in accepted scientific style; (vi) peer review; (vii) oral presentation of results and proposals; and (viii) introduction to molecular modeling. Figure 1 illustrates the modular nature of the lab curriculum. Elements from each of the exercises can be separated and treated as stand-alone exercises, or combined into short or long projects. We have been able to offer the opportunity to use sophisticated molecular modeling in the final module through funding from an NSF-ILI grant. However, many of the benefits of the research proposal can be achieved with other computer programs, or even by literature survey alone. Figure 1.Design of project-based biochemistry laboratory. Modules (projects, or portions of projects) are indicated as boxes. Each of these can be treated independently, or used as part of a larger project. Solid lines indicate some suggested paths from one module to the next. The skills and knowledge required for protein purification and design are developed in three units: (i) an introduction to critical assays needed to monitor degree of purification, including an evaluation of assay parameters; (ii) partial purification by ion-exchange techniques; and (iii) preparation of a grant proposal on protein design by mutagenesis. Brief descriptions of each of these units follow, with experimental details of each project at the end of this paper. Assays for Lysozyme Activity and Protein Concentration (4 weeks) The assays mastered during the first unit are a necessary tool for determining the purity of the enzyme during the second unit on purification by ion exchange. These assays allow an introduction to the concept of specific activity (units of enzyme activity per milligram of total protein) as a measure of purity. In this first sequence, students learn a turbidimetric assay

  7. Two-dimensional modeling of x-ray output from switched foil implosions on Procyon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, R. L.; Nakafuji, G.; Greene, A. E.; McLenithan, K. D.; Peterson, D. L.; Roderick, N. F.

    1996-09-01

    A series of two-dimensional radiation magnetohydrodynamic calculations are presented of a Z-pinch implosion using a plasma flow switch. Results from a recent experiment using the high explosive driven generator Procyon, which delivered 16.5 MA to a plasma flow switch and switched about 15 MA into a static load, are used to study the implosion of a 29 mg load foil [J. H. Goforth et al., ``Review of the Procyon Explosive Pulsed Power System,'' in Ninth IEEE Pulsed Power Conference, June 1993, Albuquerque, edited by K. R. Prestwich and W. L. Baker (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Piscataway, NJ, 1993), p. 36]. The interaction of the switch with the load plasma and the effects of background plasma on the total radiation output is examined. Models which assume ideal switching are also included. Also included are the effects of perturbations in the load plasma which may be associated with initial vaporization of the load foil. If the background plasma density in the switch region and in the load region does not affect the dynamics, the pinch is predicted to produce a total radiation output of about 4 MJ. Including perturbations of the load plasma associated with switching and assuming a background plasma density after switching in excess of 10-7 g/cm3 results in a total output from the pinch of about 0.6 MJ.

  8. Seepage Model for PA Including Drift Collapse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, G.; Tsang, C.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the predictions and analysis performed using the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (PA) and the Disturbed Drift Seepage Submodel for both the Topopah Spring middle nonlithophysal and lower lithophysal lithostratigraphic units at Yucca Mountain. These results will be used by PA to develop the probability distribution of water seepage into waste-emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as part of the evaluation of the long term performance of the potential repository. This AMR is in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (CRWMS M andO 2000 [153447]). This purpose is accomplished by performing numerical simulations with stochastic representations of hydrological properties, using the Seepage Model for PA, and evaluating the effects of an alternative drift geometry representing a partially collapsed drift using the Disturbed Drift Seepage Submodel. Seepage of water into waste-emplacement drifts is considered one of the principal factors having the greatest impact of long-term safety of the repository system (CRWMS M andO 2000 [153225], Table 4-1). This AMR supports the analysis and simulation that are used by PA to develop the probability distribution of water seepage into drift, and is therefore a model of primary (Level 1) importance (AP-3.15Q, ''Managing Technical Product Inputs''). The intended purpose of the Seepage Model for PA is to support: (1) PA; (2) Abstraction of Drift-Scale Seepage; and (3) Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR). Seepage into drifts is evaluated by applying numerical models with stochastic representations of hydrological properties and performing flow simulations with multiple realizations of the permeability field around the drift. The Seepage Model for PA uses the distribution of permeabilities derived from air injection testing in niches and in the cross drift to

  9. Seepage Model for PA Including Dift Collapse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    G. Li; C. Tsang

    2000-12-20

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the predictions and analysis performed using the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (PA) and the Disturbed Drift Seepage Submodel for both the Topopah Spring middle nonlithophysal and lower lithophysal lithostratigraphic units at Yucca Mountain. These results will be used by PA to develop the probability distribution of water seepage into waste-emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as part of the evaluation of the long term performance of the potential repository. This AMR is in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (CRWMS M&O 2000 [153447]). This purpose is accomplished by performing numerical simulations with stochastic representations of hydrological properties, using the Seepage Model for PA, and evaluating the effects of an alternative drift geometry representing a partially collapsed drift using the Disturbed Drift Seepage Submodel. Seepage of water into waste-emplacement drifts is considered one of the principal factors having the greatest impact of long-term safety of the repository system (CRWMS M&O 2000 [153225], Table 4-1). This AMR supports the analysis and simulation that are used by PA to develop the probability distribution of water seepage into drift, and is therefore a model of primary (Level 1) importance (AP-3.15Q, ''Managing Technical Product Inputs''). The intended purpose of the Seepage Model for PA is to support: (1) PA; (2) Abstraction of Drift-Scale Seepage; and (3) Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR). Seepage into drifts is evaluated by applying numerical models with stochastic representations of hydrological properties and performing flow simulations with multiple realizations of the permeability field around the drift. The Seepage Model for PA uses the distribution of permeabilities derived from air injection testing in

  10. Enhanced battery model including temperature effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosca, B.; Wilkins, S.

    2013-01-01

    Within electric and hybrid vehicles, batteries are used to provide/buffer the energy required for driving. However, battery performance varies throughout the temperature range specific to automotive applications, and as such, models that describe this behaviour are required. This paper presents a

  11. Including spatial data in nutrient balance modelling on dairy farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, Maricke; van Middelaar, Corina; Stoof, Cathelijne; Oenema, Jouke; Stoorvogel, Jetse; de Boer, Imke

    2017-04-01

    The Annual Nutrient Cycle Assessment (ANCA) calculates the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balance at a dairy farm, while taking into account the subsequent nutrient cycles of the herd, manure, soil and crop components. Since January 2016, Dutch dairy farmers are required to use ANCA in order to increase understanding of nutrient flows and to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. A nutrient balance calculates the difference between nutrient inputs and outputs. Nutrients enter the farm via purchased feed, fertilizers, deposition and fixation by legumes (nitrogen), and leave the farm via milk, livestock, manure, and roughages. A positive balance indicates to which extent N and/or P are lost to the environment via gaseous emissions (N), leaching, run-off and accumulation in soil. A negative balance indicates that N and/or P are depleted from soil. ANCA was designed to calculate average nutrient flows on farm level (for the herd, manure, soil and crop components). ANCA was not designed to perform calculations of nutrient flows at the field level, as it uses averaged nutrient inputs and outputs across all fields, and it does not include field specific soil characteristics. Land management decisions, however, such as the level of N and P application, are typically taken at the field level given the specific crop and soil characteristics. Therefore the information that ANCA provides is likely not sufficient to support farmers' decisions on land management to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. This is particularly a problem when land management and soils vary between fields. For an accurate estimate of nutrient flows in a given farming system that can be used to optimize land management, the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs (and thus the effect of land management and soil variation) could be essential. Our aim was to determine the effect of the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs on modelled nutrient flows and nutrient use efficiencies

  12. The Modulated-Input Modulated-Output Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Moskowitz, Ira S; Kang, Myong H

    1995-01-01

    .... The data replication problem in database systems is our motivation. We introduce a new queueing theoretic model, the MIMO model, that incorporates burstiness in the sending side and busy periods in the receiving side...

  13. ISLSCP II IGBP NPP Output from Terrestrial Biogeochemistry Models

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains modeled annual net primary production (NPP) for the land biosphere from seventeen different global models. Annual NPP is defined as...

  14. ISLSCP II IGBP NPP Output from Terrestrial Biogeochemistry Models

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains modeled annual net primary production (NPP) for the land biosphere from seventeen different global models. Annual NPP is defined as the net...

  15. Intention, Principle, Outputs and Aims of the Experimental Pavilion Research of Building Envelopes Including Windows for Wooden Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Štaffenová, Daniela; Rybárik, Ján; Jakubčík, Miroslav

    2017-06-01

    The aim of experimental research in the area of exterior walls and windows suitable for wooden buildings was to build special pavilion laboratories. These laboratories are ideally isolated from the surrounding environment, airtight and controlled by the constant internal climate. The principle of experimental research is measuring and recording of required physical parameters (e.g. temperature or relative humidity). This is done in layers of experimental fragment sections in the direction from exterior to interior, as well as in critical places by stable interior and real exterior climatic conditions. The outputs are evaluations of experimental structures behaviour during the specified time period, possibly during the whole year by stable interior and real exterior boundary conditions. The main aim of this experimental research is processing of long-term measurements of experimental structures and the subsequent analysis. The next part of the research consists of collecting measurements obtained with assistance of the experimental detached weather station, analysis, evaluation for later setting up of reference data set for the research locality, from the point of view of its comparison to the data sets from Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMU) and to localities with similar climate conditions. Later on, the data sets could lead to recommendations for design of wooden buildings.

  16. Archive Access to the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Suite of Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutledge, G. K.; Schuster, D.; Worley, S.; Stepaniak, D.; Toth, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Bougeault, P.; Anthony, S.

    2008-05-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Programme (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), is a key component of the World Weather Research Programme intended to accelerate improvements in 1-day to 2-week weather forecasts. Centralized archives of ensemble model forecast data, from many international centers, are being used to enable extensive data sharing and research during Phase I of the project. The designated TIGGE archive centers include the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA), The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Scientific data requirements and archive planning solidified in late 2005, and archive collection was initiated in October 2006 with receipt of partial sets of parameters from multiple data providers. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1-2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near-real-time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at CMA, ECMWF and NCAR. The objective of TIGGE (GEO task WE-06-03) is to establish closer cooperation between the academic and operational community by encouraging use of operational products for research, and to explore actively the concept and benefits of multi- model probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on severe weather prediction. The future operational use of the TIGGE infrastructure as part of a "Global Interactive Forecasting System" will be considered, subject to positive results from research undertaken with the TIGGE data archives. The Unidata Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system is the primary mode used to transport ensemble model data from the data providers to the archive centers. ECMWF acts as one initial collection point to collect model output from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Meteo

  17. Multidimensional Taylor Network Optimal Control of MIMO Nonlinear Systems without Models for Tracking by Output Feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Ming Sun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The actual controlled objects are generally multi-input and multioutput (MIMO nonlinear systems with imprecise models or even without models, so it is one of the hot topics in the control theory. Due to the complex internal structure, the general control methods without models tend to be based on neural networks. However, the neuron of neural networks includes the exponential function, which contributes to the complexity of calculation, making the neural network control unable to meet the real-time requirements. The newly developed multidimensional Taylor network (MTN requires only addition and multiplication, so it is easy to realize real-time control. In the present study, the MTN approach is extended to MIMO nonlinear systems without models to realize adaptive output feedback control. The MTN controller is proposed to guarantee the stability of the closed-loop system. Our experimental results show that the output signals of the system are bounded and the tracking error goes nearly to zero. The MTN optimal controller is proven to promise far better real-time dynamic performance and robustness than the BP neural network self-adaption reconstitution controller.

  18. Derivation of Output Power of Induction Heater Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riyadh K. Chillab

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The work is concerned with the study of the single phase cylindrical induction heating systems and derive equation power. The presented analysis is analytical and a multi-layer model using cylindrical geometry which is used to obtain the theoretical results. To validate the theoretical results, a practical model is constructed, tested and the results are compared with the theoretical ones. Comparison showed that the adopted analytical method is efficient in describing the performance of such induction heater systems

  19. Modeling and control of the output current of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Pasupathi, Sivakumar

    2015-01-01

    In this work, a dynamic Matlab SIMULINK model of the relationship between the fuel cell current set point of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system and the output current of the system is developed. The model contains an estimated fuel cell model, based on a polarization curve and assumed first order...... dynamics, as well as a battery model based on an equivalent circuit model and a balance of plant power consumption model. The models are tuned with experimental data and verified using a verification data set. The model is used to develop an output current controller which can control the charge current...

  20. Output analysis of multiclass fluid models with static priorities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tzenova, E.I.; Adan, I.J.B.F.; Kulkarni, V.G.

    2008-01-01

    We consider a stochastic fluid flow model with a single server and K infinite capacity buffers. The input to the k-th buffer is a Markovian on-off process that transmits fluid at a constant rate p(k) while it is on and at rate 0 while it is off. The fluid is emptied from the buffers by a single

  1. Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Wetterhall

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs through regional climate models (RCMs potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1 a simple direct method (DM, (2 quantile-quantile mapping (QM and (3 a distribution-based scaling (DBS approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

  2. Choice of theoretical model for beam scattering at accelerator output foil for particle energy determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balagyra, V.S.; Ryabka, P.M.

    1999-01-01

    For measuring the charged particle energy calculations of mean square angles of electron beam multiple Coulomb scattering at output combined accelerator target were undertaken according to seven theoretical models. Mollier method showed the best agreement with experiments

  3. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  4. Design of vaccination and fumigation on Host-Vector Model by input-output linearization method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Naiborhu, Janson; Nuraini, Nuning

    2017-03-01

    Here, we analyze the Host-Vector Model and proposed design of vaccination and fumigation to control infectious population by using feedback control especially input-output liniearization method. Host population is divided into three compartments: susceptible, infectious and recovery. Whereas the vector population is divided into two compartment such as susceptible and infectious. In this system, vaccination and fumigation treat as input factors and infectious population as output result. The objective of design is to stabilize of the output asymptotically tend to zero. We also present the examples to illustrate the design model.

  5. Conditions for Model Matching of Switched Asynchronous Sequential Machines with Output Feedback

    OpenAIRE

    Jung–Min Yang

    2016-01-01

    Solvability of the model matching problem for input/output switched asynchronous sequential machines is discussed in this paper. The control objective is to determine the existence condition and design algorithm for a corrective controller that can match the stable-state behavior of the closed-loop system to that of a reference model. Switching operations and correction procedures are incorporated using output feedback so that the controlled switched machine can show the ...

  6. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, Robert L.

    2013-04-01

    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

  7. Modeling and notation of DEA with strong and weak disposable outputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuntz, Ludwig; Sülz, Sandra

    2011-12-01

    Recent articles published in Health Care Management Science have described DEA applications under the assumption of strong and weak disposable outputs. As we confidently assume that these papers include some methodical deficiencies, we aim to illustrate a revised approach.

  8. ThinTool: a spreadsheet model to evaluate fuel reduction thinning cost, net energy output, and nutrient impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sang-Kyun Han; Han-Sup Han; William J. Elliot; Edward M. Bilek

    2017-01-01

    We developed a spreadsheet-based model, named ThinTool, to evaluate the cost of mechanical fuel reduction thinning including biomass removal, to predict net energy output, and to assess nutrient impacts from thinning treatments in northern California and southern Oregon. A combination of literature reviews, field-based studies, and contractor surveys was used to...

  9. A Water-Withdrawal Input-Output Model of the Indian Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogra, Shelly; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Mathur, Ritu

    2016-02-02

    Managing freshwater allocation for a highly populated and growing economy like India can benefit from knowledge about the effect of economic activities. This study transforms the 2003-2004 economic input-output (IO) table of India into a water withdrawal input-output model to quantify direct and indirect flows. This unique model is based on a comprehensive database compiled from diverse public sources, and estimates direct and indirect water withdrawal of all economic sectors. It distinguishes between green (rainfall), blue (surface and ground), and scarce groundwater. Results indicate that the total direct water withdrawal is nearly 3052 billion cubic meter (BCM) and 96% of this is used in agriculture sectors with the contribution of direct green water being about 1145 BCM, excluding forestry. Apart from 727 BCM direct blue water withdrawal for agricultural, other significant users include "Electricity" with 64 BCM, "Water supply" with 44 BCM and other industrial sectors with nearly 14 BCM. "Construction", "miscellaneous food products"; "Hotels and restaurants"; "Paper, paper products, and newsprint" are other significant indirect withdrawers. The net virtual water import is found to be insignificant compared to direct water used in agriculture nationally, while scarce ground water associated with crops is largely contributed by northern states.

  10. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  11. Backstepping control for a 3DOF model helicopter with input and output constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Mei

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this article, a backstepping control scheme is developed for the motion control of a Three degrees of freedom (3DOF model helicopter with unknown external disturbance, modelling uncertainties and input and output constraints. In the developed robust control scheme, augmented state observers are applied to estimate the unknown states, unknown external disturbance and modelling uncertainties. Auxiliary systems are designed to deal with input saturation. A barrier Lyapunov function is employed to handle the output saturation. The stability of closed-loop system is proved by the Lyapunov method. Simulation results show that the designed control scheme is effective at dealing with the motion control of a 3DOF model helicopter in the presence of unknown external disturbance and modelling uncertainties, and input and output saturation.

  12. An Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Based Model Output Statistics (MOS) During the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hart, Kenneth

    2003-01-01

    The skill of a mesoscale model based Model Output Statistics (MOS) system that provided hourly forecasts for 18 sites over northern Utah during the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games is evaluated...

  13. Generalisation benefits of output gating in a model of prefrontal cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriete, Trent; Noelle, David C.

    2011-06-01

    The prefrontal cortex (PFC) plays a central role in flexible cognitive control, including the suppression of habitual responding in favour of situation-appropriate behaviours that can be quite novel. PFC provides a kind of working memory, maintaining the rules, goals, and/or actions that are to control behaviour in the current context. For flexible control, these PFC representations must be sufficiently componential to support systematic generalisation to novel situations. The anatomical structure of PFC can be seen as implementing a componential 'slot-filler' structure, with different components encoded over isolated pools of neurons. Previous PFC models have highlighted the importance of a dynamic gating mechanism to selectively update individual 'slot' contents. In this article, we present simulation results that suggest that systematic generalisation also requires an 'output gating' mechanism that limits the influence of PFC on more posterior brain areas to reflect a small number of representational components at any one time.

  14. How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model output: four-stage model case-study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    -year model outputs uncertainty. More precisely, this study contributes to the existing literature on the topic by investigating the effects on model outputs uncertainty deriving from the use of (i) different probability distributions in the sampling process, (ii) different assignment algorithms, and (iii...... of coefficient of variation, resulting from stochastic user equilibrium and user equilibrium is, respectively, of 0.425 and 0.468. Finally, network congestion does not show a high effect on model output uncertainty at the network level. However, the final uncertainty of links with higher volume/capacity ratio......If not properly quantified, the uncertainty inherent to transport models makes analyses based on their output highly unreliable. This study investigated uncertainty in four-stage transport models by analysing a Danish case-study: the Næstved model. The model describes the demand of transport...

  15. Laguerre-Volterra model and architecture for MIMO system identification and output prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Will X Y; Xin, Yao; Chan, Rosa H M; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W; Cheung, Ray C C

    2014-01-01

    A generalized mathematical model is proposed for behaviors prediction of biological causal systems with multiple inputs and multiple outputs (MIMO). The system properties are represented by a set of model parameters, which can be derived with random input stimuli probing it. The system calculates predicted outputs based on the estimated parameters and its novel inputs. An efficient hardware architecture is established for this mathematical model and its circuitry has been implemented using the field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). This architecture is scalable and its functionality has been validated by using experimental data gathered from real-world measurement.

  16. Olkiluoto surface hydrological modelling: Update 2012 including salt transport modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karvonen, T.

    2013-11-01

    Posiva Oy is responsible for implementing a final disposal program for spent nuclear fuel of its owners Teollisuuden Voima Oyj and Fortum Power and Heat Oy. The spent nuclear fuel is planned to be disposed at a depth of about 400-450 meters in the crystalline bedrock at the Olkiluoto site. Leakages located at or close to spent fuel repository may give rise to the upconing of deep highly saline groundwater and this is a concern with regard to the performance of the tunnel backfill material after the closure of the tunnels. Therefore a salt transport sub-model was added to the Olkiluoto surface hydrological model (SHYD). The other improvements include update of the particle tracking algorithm and possibility to estimate the influence of open drillholes in a case where overpressure in inflatable packers decreases causing a hydraulic short-circuit between hydrogeological zones HZ19 and HZ20 along the drillhole. Four new hydrogeological zones HZ056, HZ146, BFZ100 and HZ039 were added to the model. In addition, zones HZ20A and HZ20B intersect with each other in the new structure model, which influences salinity upconing caused by leakages in shafts. The aim of the modelling of long-term influence of ONKALO, shafts and repository tunnels provide computational results that can be used to suggest limits for allowed leakages. The model input data included all the existing leakages into ONKALO (35-38 l/min) and shafts in the present day conditions. The influence of shafts was computed using eight different values for total shaft leakage: 5, 11, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 and 70 l/min. The selection of the leakage criteria for shafts was influenced by the fact that upconing of saline water increases TDS-values close to the repository areas although HZ20B does not intersect any deposition tunnels. The total limit for all leakages was suggested to be 120 l/min. The limit for HZ20 zones was proposed to be 40 l/min: about 5 l/min the present day leakages to access tunnel, 25 l/min from

  17. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying

  18. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koks, E.E.; Carrera, L.; Jonkeren, O.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Husby, T.G.; Thissen, M.; Standardi, G.; Mysiak, J.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of

  19. Logistics flows and enterprise input-output models: aggregate and disaggregate analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albino, V.; Yazan, Devrim; Messeni Petruzzelli, A.; Okogbaa, O.G.

    2011-01-01

    In the present paper, we propose the use of enterprise input-output (EIO) models to describe and analyse the logistics flows considering spatial issues and related environmental effects associated with production and transportation processes. In particular, transportation is modelled as a specific

  20. Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yuning

    2015-01-01

    Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

  1. Modelling and Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aminmohammad Saberian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a solar power modelling method using artificial neural networks (ANNs. Two neural network structures, namely, general regression neural network (GRNN feedforward back propagation (FFBP, have been used to model a photovoltaic panel output power and approximate the generated power. Both neural networks have four inputs and one output. The inputs are maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and irradiance; the output is the power. The data used in this paper started from January 1, 2006, until December 31, 2010. The five years of data were split into two parts: 2006–2008 and 2009-2010; the first part was used for training and the second part was used for testing the neural networks. A mathematical equation is used to estimate the generated power. At the end, both of these networks have shown good modelling performance; however, FFBP has shown a better performance comparing with GRNN.

  2. Optimal cycling time trial position models: aerodynamics versus power output and metabolic energy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fintelman, D M; Sterling, M; Hemida, H; Li, F-X

    2014-06-03

    The aerodynamic drag of a cyclist in time trial (TT) position is strongly influenced by the torso angle. While decreasing the torso angle reduces the drag, it limits the physiological functioning of the cyclist. Therefore the aims of this study were to predict the optimal TT cycling position as function of the cycling speed and to determine at which speed the aerodynamic power losses start to dominate. Two models were developed to determine the optimal torso angle: a 'Metabolic Energy Model' and a 'Power Output Model'. The Metabolic Energy Model minimised the required cycling energy expenditure, while the Power Output Model maximised the cyclists׳ power output. The input parameters were experimentally collected from 19 TT cyclists at different torso angle positions (0-24°). The results showed that for both models, the optimal torso angle depends strongly on the cycling speed, with decreasing torso angles at increasing speeds. The aerodynamic losses outweigh the power losses at cycling speeds above 46km/h. However, a fully horizontal torso is not optimal. For speeds below 30km/h, it is beneficial to ride in a more upright TT position. The two model outputs were not completely similar, due to the different model approaches. The Metabolic Energy Model could be applied for endurance events, while the Power Output Model is more suitable in sprinting or in variable conditions (wind, undulating course, etc.). It is suggested that despite some limitations, the models give valuable information about improving the cycling performance by optimising the TT cycling position. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling of Output Characteristics of a UV Cu+ Ne-CuBr Laser

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snezhana Georgieva Gocheva-Ilieva

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines experiment data for a Ne-CuBr UV copper ion laser excited by longitudinal pulsed discharge emitting in multiline regime. The flexible multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSs method has been used to develop nonparametric regression models describing the laser output power and service life of the devices. The models have been constructed as explicit functions of 9 basic input laser characteristics. The obtained models account for local nonlinearities of the relationships within the various multivariate subregions. The built best MARS models account for over 98% of data. The models are used to estimate the investigated output laser characteristics of existing UV lasers. The capabilities for using the models in predicting existing and future experiments have been demonstrated. Specific analyses have been presented comparing the models with actual experiments. The obtained results are applicable for guiding and planning the engineering experiment. The modeling methodology can be applied for a wide range of similar lasers and laser devices.

  4. Estimating the Health Impact of Climate Change with Calibrated Climate Model Output.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jingwen; Chang, Howard H; Fuentes, Montserrat

    2012-09-01

    Studies on the health impacts of climate change routinely use climate model output as future exposure projection. Uncertainty quantification, usually in the form of sensitivity analysis, has focused predominantly on the variability arise from different emission scenarios or multi-model ensembles. This paper describes a Bayesian spatial quantile regression approach to calibrate climate model output for examining to the risks of future temperature on adverse health outcomes. Specifically, we first estimate the spatial quantile process for climate model output using nonlinear monotonic regression during a historical period. The quantile process is then calibrated using the quantile functions estimated from the observed monitoring data. Our model also down-scales the gridded climate model output to the point-level for projecting future exposure over a specific geographical region. The quantile regression approach is motivated by the need to better characterize the tails of future temperature distribution where the greatest health impacts are likely to occur. We applied the methodology to calibrate temperature projections from a regional climate model for the period 2041 to 2050. Accounting for calibration uncertainty, we calculated the number of of excess deaths attributed to future temperature for three cities in the US state of Alabama.

  5. Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R

    2014-03-01

    Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Prediction of Francis Turbine Prototype Part Load Pressure and Output Power Fluctuations with Hydroelectric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alligné, S.; Nicolet, C.; Béguin, A.; Landry, C.; Gomes, J.; Avellan, F.

    2017-04-01

    The prediction of pressure and output power fluctuations amplitudes on Francis turbine prototype is a challenge for hydro-equipment industry since it is subjected to guarantees to ensure smooth and reliable operation of the hydro units. The European FP7 research project Hyperbole aims to setup a methodology to transpose the pressure fluctuations induced by the cavitation vortex rope from the reduced scale model to the prototype generating units. A Francis turbine unit of 444MW with a specific speed value of ν = 0.29, is considered as case study. A SIMSEN model of the power station including electrical system, controllers, rotating train and hydraulic system with transposed draft tube excitation sources is setup. Based on this model, a frequency analysis of the hydroelectric system is performed for all technologies to analyse potential interactions between hydraulic excitation sources and electrical components. Three technologies have been compared: the classical fixed speed configuration with Synchronous Machine (SM) and the two variable speed technologies which are Doubly Fed Induction Machine (DFIM) and Full Size Frequency Converter (FSFC).

  7. About the use of rank transformation in sensitivity analysis of model output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, Andrea; Sobol', Ilya M

    1995-01-01

    Rank transformations are frequently employed in numerical experiments involving a computational model, especially in the context of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Response surface replacement and parameter screening are tasks which may benefit from a rank transformation. Ranks can cope with nonlinear (albeit monotonic) input-output distributions, allowing the use of linear regression techniques. Rank transformed statistics are more robust, and provide a useful solution in the presence of long tailed input and output distributions. As is known to practitioners, care must be employed when interpreting the results of such analyses, as any conclusion drawn using ranks does not translate easily to the original model. In the present note an heuristic approach is taken, to explore, by way of practical examples, the effect of a rank transformation on the outcome of a sensitivity analysis. An attempt is made to identify trends, and to correlate these effects to a model taxonomy. Employing sensitivity indices, whereby the total variance of the model output is decomposed into a sum of terms of increasing dimensionality, we show that the main effect of the rank transformation is to increase the relative weight of the first order terms (the 'main effects'), at the expense of the 'interactions' and 'higher order interactions'. As a result the influence of those parameters which influence the output mostly by way of interactions may be overlooked in an analysis based on the ranks. This difficulty increases with the dimensionality of the problem, and may lead to the failure of a rank based sensitivity analysis. We suggest that the models can be ranked, with respect to the complexity of their input-output relationship, by mean of an 'Association' index I y . I y may complement the usual model coefficient of determination R y 2 as a measure of model complexity for the purpose of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

  8. Development of algorithm for depreciation costs allocation in dynamic input-output industrial enterprise model

    OpenAIRE

    Keller Alevtina; Vinogradova Tatyana

    2017-01-01

    The article considers the issue of allocation of depreciation costs in the dynamic inputoutput model of an industrial enterprise. Accounting the depreciation costs in such a model improves the policy of fixed assets management. It is particularly relevant to develop the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs in the construction of dynamic input-output model of an industrial enterprise, since such enterprises have a significant amount of fixed assets. Implementation of terms of the...

  9. Input-Output model for waste management plan for Nigeria | Njoku ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An Input-Output Model for Waste Management Plan has been developed for Nigeria based on Leontief concept and life cycle analysis. Waste was considered as source of pollution, loss of resources, and emission of green house gasses from bio-chemical treatment and decomposition, with negative impact on the ...

  10. Analyses of gust fronts by means of limited area NWP model outputs

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kašpar, Marek

    67-68, - (2003), s. 559-572 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/00/1451 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : gust front * limited area NWP model * output Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.012, year: 2003

  11. Can dynamically downscaled climate model outputs improve pojections of extreme precipitation events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect betwe...

  12. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in The Netherlands: A regional input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise and uniform definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model is constructed for multifunctional

  13. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in Dutch regions: An input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model was constructed for multifunctional agriculture

  14. texreg: Conversion of Statistical Model Output in R to LATEX and HTML Tables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Leifeld

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A recurrent task in applied statistics is the (mostly manual preparation of model output for inclusion in LATEX, Microsoft Word, or HTML documents usually with more than one model presented in a single table along with several goodness-of-fit statistics. However, statistical models in R have diverse object structures and summary methods, which makes this process cumbersome. This article first develops a set of guidelines for converting statistical model output to LATEX and HTML tables, then assesses to what extent existing packages meet these requirements, and finally presents the texreg package as a solution that meets all of the criteria set out in the beginning. After providing various usage examples, a blueprint for writing custom model extensions is proposed.

  15. Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

  16. ANALYSIS OF THE BANDUNG CHANGES EXCELLENT POTENTIAL THROUGH INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL USING INDEX LE MASNE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teti Sofia Yanti

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Input-Output Table is arranged to present an overview of the interrelationships and interdependence between units of activity (sector production in the whole economy. Therefore the input-output models are complete and comprehensive analytical tool. The usefulness of input-output tables is an analysis of the economic structure of the national/regional level which covers the structure of production and value-added (GDP of each sector. For the purposes of planning and evaluation of the outcomes of development that is comprehensive both national and smaller scale (district/city, a model for regional development planning approach can use the model input-output analysis. Analysis of Bandung Economic Structure did use Le Masne index, by comparing the coefficients of the technology in 2003 and 2008, of which nearly 50% change. The trade sector has grown very conspicuous than other areas, followed by the services of road transport and air transport services, the development priorities and investment Bandung should be directed to these areas, this is due to these areas can be thrust and be power attraction for the growth of other areas. The areas that experienced the highest decrease was Industrial Chemicals and Goods from Chemistry, followed by Oil and Refinery Industry Textile Industry Except For Garment.

  17. Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Hajek

    Full Text Available Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

  18. Uncertainty Modeling and Robust Output Feedback Control of Nonlinear Discrete Systems: A Mathematical Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olav Slupphaug

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a mathematical programming approach to robust control of nonlinear systems with uncertain, possibly time-varying, parameters. The uncertain system is given by different local affine parameter dependent models in different parts of the state space. It is shown how this representation can be obtained from a nonlinear uncertain system by solving a set of continuous linear semi-infinite programming problems, and how each of these problems can be solved as a (finite series of ordinary linear programs. Additionally, the system representation includes control- and state constraints. The controller design method is derived from Lyapunov stability arguments and utilizes an affine parameter dependent quadratic Lyapunov function. The controller has a piecewise affine output feedback structure, and the design amounts to finding a feasible solution to a set of linear matrix inequalities combined with one spectral radius constraint on the product of two positive definite matrices. A local solution approach to this nonconvex feasibility problem is proposed. Complexity of the design method and some special cases such as state- feedback are discussed. Finally, an application of the results is given by proposing an on-line computationally feasible algorithm for constrained nonlinear state- feedback model predictive control with robust stability.

  19. Efficient Output Solution for Nonlinear Stochastic Optimal Control Problem with Model-Reality Differences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sie Long Kek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A computational approach is proposed for solving the discrete time nonlinear stochastic optimal control problem. Our aim is to obtain the optimal output solution of the original optimal control problem through solving the simplified model-based optimal control problem iteratively. In our approach, the adjusted parameters are introduced into the model used such that the differences between the real system and the model used can be computed. Particularly, system optimization and parameter estimation are integrated interactively. On the other hand, the output is measured from the real plant and is fed back into the parameter estimation problem to establish a matching scheme. During the calculation procedure, the iterative solution is updated in order to approximate the true optimal solution of the original optimal control problem despite model-reality differences. For illustration, a wastewater treatment problem is studied and the results show the efficiency of the approach proposed.

  20. Simulation model structure numerically robust to changes in magnitude and combination of input and output variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne

    1999-01-01

    Mathematical models of refrigeration systems are often based on a coupling of component models forming a “closed loop” type of system model. In these models the coupling structure of the component models represents the actual flow path of refrigerant in the system. Very often numerical...... variables with narrow definition intervals for the exchange of information between the cycle model and the component models.The advantages of the cycle-oriented method are illustrated by an example showing the refrigeration cycle similarities between two very different refrigeration systems....... instabilities prevent the practical use of such a system model for more than one input/output combination and for other magnitudes of refrigerating capacities.A higher numerical robustness of system models can be achieved by making a model for the refrigeration cycle the core of the system model and by using...

  1. Linear and quadratic models of point process systems: contributions of patterned input to output.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, K A; Rosenberg, J R

    2012-08-01

    In the 1880's Volterra characterised a nonlinear system using a functional series connecting continuous input and continuous output. Norbert Wiener, in the 1940's, circumvented problems associated with the application of Volterra series to physical problems by deriving from it a new series of terms that are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Gaussian processes. Subsequently, Brillinger, in the 1970's, introduced a point-process analogue of Volterra's series connecting point-process inputs to the instantaneous rate of point-process output. We derive here a new series from this analogue in which its terms are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Poisson processes. This new series expresses how patterned input in a spike train, represented by third-order cross-cumulants, is converted into the instantaneous rate of an output point-process. Given experimental records of suitable duration, the contribution of arbitrary patterned input to an output process can, in principle, be determined. Solutions for linear and quadratic point-process models with one and two inputs and a single output are investigated. Our theoretical results are applied to isolated muscle spindle data in which the spike trains from the primary and secondary endings from the same muscle spindle are recorded in response to stimulation of one and then two static fusimotor axons in the absence and presence of a random length change imposed on the parent muscle. For a fixed mean rate of input spikes, the analysis of the experimental data makes explicit which patterns of two input spikes contribute to an output spike. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The Battlefield Environment Division Modeling Framework (BMF). Part 2. Serial and Parallel Output Enhancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    use of object-oriented program ( OOP ) design. Here we extend BMF to include IO functionality for serial and distributed compute configurations. The...error prone, or tedious operations in source code by using object-oriented program ( OOP ) design. Here we extend BMF to include IO functionality for...actual routines defined in the output libraries (e.g., HDF5 v1.8.12) are accessed via wrapper functions that employ the Fortran-C language bridge

  3. Application of a Linear Input/Output Model to Tankless Water Heaters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butcher T.; Schoenbauer, B.

    2011-12-31

    In this study, the applicability of a linear input/output model to gas-fired, tankless water heaters has been evaluated. This simple model assumes that the relationship between input and output, averaged over both active draw and idle periods, is linear. This approach is being applied to boilers in other studies and offers the potential to make a small number of simple measurements to obtain the model parameters. These parameters can then be used to predict performance under complex load patterns. Both condensing and non-condensing water heaters have been tested under a very wide range of load conditions. It is shown that this approach can be used to reproduce performance metrics, such as the energy factor, and can be used to evaluate the impacts of alternative draw patterns and conditions.

  4. Output-only identification of civil structures using nonlinear finite element model updating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Hamed; Astroza, Rodrigo; Conte, Joel P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper presents a novel approach for output-only nonlinear system identification of structures using data recorded during earthquake events. In this approach, state-of-the-art nonlinear structural FE modeling and analysis techniques are combined with Bayesian Inference method to estimate (i) time-invariant parameters governing the nonlinear hysteretic material constitutive models used in the FE model of the structure, and (ii) the time history of the earthquake ground motion. To validate the performance of the proposed framework, the simulated responses of a bridge pier to an earthquake ground motion is polluted with artificial output measurement noise and used to jointly estimate the unknown material parameters and the time history of the earthquake ground motion. This proof-of-concept example illustrates the successful performance of the proposed approach even in the presence of high measurement noise.

  5. Dynamic hysteresis modeling including skin effect using diffusion equation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamada, Souad, E-mail: souadhamada@yahoo.fr [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Louai, Fatima Zohra, E-mail: fz_louai@yahoo.com [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Nait-Said, Nasreddine, E-mail: n_naitsaid@yahoo.com [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Benabou, Abdelkader, E-mail: Abdelkader.Benabou@univ-lille1.fr [L2EP, Université de Lille1, 59655 Villeneuve d’Ascq (France)

    2016-07-15

    An improved dynamic hysteresis model is proposed for the prediction of hysteresis loop of electrical steel up to mean frequencies, taking into account the skin effect. In previous works, the analytical solution of the diffusion equation for low frequency (DELF) was coupled with the inverse static Jiles-Atherton (JA) model in order to represent the hysteresis behavior for a lamination. In the present paper, this approach is improved to ensure the reproducibility of measured hysteresis loops at mean frequency. The results of simulation are compared with the experimental ones. The selected results for frequencies 50 Hz, 100 Hz, 200 Hz and 400 Hz are presented and discussed.

  6. Modelling the effects of cell-to-cell variability on the output of interconnected gene networks in bacterial populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Politi, Nicolò; Pasotti, Lorenzo; Zucca, Susanna; Magni, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    The interconnection of quantitatively characterized biological devices may lead to composite systems with apparently unpredictable behaviour. Context-dependent variability of biological parts has been investigated in several studies, measuring its entity and identifying the factors contributing to variability. Such studies rely on the experimental analysis of model systems, by quantifying reporter genes via population or single-cell approaches. However, cell-to-cell variability is not commonly included in predictability analyses, thus relying on predictive models trained and tested on central tendency values. This work aims to study in silico the effects of cell-to-cell variability on the population-averaged output of interconnected biological circuits. The steady-state deterministic transfer function of individual devices was described by Hill equations and lognormal synthetic noise was applied to their output. Two- and three-module networks were studied, where individual devices implemented inducible/repressible functions. The single-cell output of such networks was simulated as a function of noise entity; their population-averaged output was computed and used to investigate the expected variability in transfer function identification. The study was extended by testing different noise models, module logic, intrinsic/extrinsic noise proportions and network configurations. First, the transfer function of an individual module was identified from simulated data of a two-module network. The estimated parameter variability among different noise entities was limited (14%), while a larger difference was observed (up to 62%) when estimated and true parameters were compared. Thus, low-variability parameter estimates can be obtained for different noise entities, although deviating from the true parameters, whose measurement requires noise knowledge. Second, the black-box input-output function of a two/three-module network was predicted from the knowledge of the transfer

  7. Stochastic modelling of two-phase flows including phase change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurisse, O.; Minier, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic modelling has already been developed and applied for single-phase flows and incompressible two-phase flows. In this article, we propose an extension of this modelling approach to two-phase flows including phase change (e.g. for steam-water flows). Two aspects are emphasised: a stochastic model accounting for phase transition and a modelling constraint which arises from volume conservation. To illustrate the whole approach, some remarks are eventually proposed for two-fluid models. (authors)

  8. Ecological input-output modeling for embodied resources and emissions in Chinese economy 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Z. M.; Chen, G. Q.; Zhou, J. B.; Jiang, M. M.; Chen, B.

    2010-07-01

    For the embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions in Chinese economy 2005, a biophysical balance modeling is carried out based on an extension of the economic input-output table into an ecological one integrating the economy with its various environmental driving forces. Included resource flows into the primary resource sectors and environmental emission flows from the primary emission sectors belong to seven categories as energy resources in terms of fossil fuels, hydropower and nuclear energy, biomass, and other sources; freshwater resources; greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2, CH4, and N2O; industrial wastes in terms of waste water, waste gas, and waste solid; exergy in terms of fossil fuel resources, biological resources, mineral resources, and environmental resources; solar emergy and cosmic emergy in terms of climate resources, soil, fossil fuels, and minerals. The resulted database for embodiment intensity and sectoral embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions is of essential implications in context of systems ecology and ecological economics in general and of global climate change in particular.

  9. On the statistical comparison of climate model output and climate data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solow, A.R.

    1991-01-01

    Some broad issues arising in the statistical comparison of the output of climate models with the corresponding climate data are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the question of detecting climate change. The purpose of this paper is to review some statistical approaches to the comparison of the output of climate models with climate data. There are many statistical issues arising in such a comparison. The author will focus on some of the broader issues, although some specific methodological questions will arise along the way. One important potential application of the approaches discussed in this paper is the detection of climate change. Although much of the discussion will be fairly general, he will try to point out the appropriate connections to the detection question. 9 refs

  10. On the statistical comparison of climate model output and climate data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solow, A.R.

    1990-01-01

    Some broad issues arising in the statistical comparison of the output of climate models with the corresponding climate data are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the question of detecting climate change. The purpose of this paper is to review some statistical approaches to the comparison of the output of climate models with climate data. There are many statistical issues arising in such a comparison. The author will focus on some of the broader issues, although some specific methodological questions will arise along the way. One important potential application of the approaches discussed in this paper is the detection of climate change. Although much of the discussion will be fairly general, he will try to point out the appropriate connections to the detection question

  11. Modeling Electric Double-Layers Including Chemical Reaction Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel; Johannesson, Björn; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.

    2014-01-01

    A physicochemical and numerical model for the transient formation of an electric double-layer between an electrolyte and a chemically-active flat surface is presented, based on a finite elements integration of the nonlinear Nernst-Planck-Poisson model including chemical reactions. The model works...

  12. Input vs. Output Taxation—A DSGE Approach to Modelling Resource Decoupling

    OpenAIRE

    Marek Antosiewicz; Piotr Lewandowski; Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks

    2016-01-01

    Environmental taxes constitute a crucial instrument aimed at reducing resource use through lower production losses, resource-leaner products, and more resource-efficient production processes. In this paper we focus on material use and apply a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study two types of taxation: tax on material inputs used by industry, energy, construction, and transport sectors, and tax on output of these sectors. We allow for endogenous adoption of...

  13. Structured, Physically Inspired (Gray Box) Models Versus Black Box Modeling for Forecasting the Output Power of Photovoltaic Plants

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Paulescu, M.; Brabec, Marek; Boata, R.; Badescu, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 121, 15 February (2017), s. 792-802 ISSN 0360-5442 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : photovoltaic plant * output power * forecasting * fuzzy model * generalized additive model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 4.520, year: 2016

  14. A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel D. Cavanagh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer, there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.

  15. Space-time data fusion under error in computer model output: an application to modeling air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrocal, Veronica J; Gelfand, Alan E; Holland, David M

    2012-09-01

    We provide methods that can be used to obtain more accurate environmental exposure assessment. In particular, we propose two modeling approaches to combine monitoring data at point level with numerical model output at grid cell level, yielding improved prediction of ambient exposure at point level. Extending our earlier downscaler model (Berrocal, V. J., Gelfand, A. E., and Holland, D. M. (2010b). A spatio-temporal downscaler for outputs from numerical models. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 15, 176-197), these new models are intended to address two potential concerns with the model output. One recognizes that there may be useful information in the outputs for grid cells that are neighbors of the one in which the location lies. The second acknowledges potential spatial misalignment between a station and its putatively associated grid cell. The first model is a Gaussian Markov random field smoothed downscaler that relates monitoring station data and computer model output via the introduction of a latent Gaussian Markov random field linked to both sources of data. The second model is a smoothed downscaler with spatially varying random weights defined through a latent Gaussian process and an exponential kernel function, that yields, at each site, a new variable on which the monitoring station data is regressed with a spatial linear model. We applied both methods to daily ozone concentration data for the Eastern US during the summer months of June, July and August 2001, obtaining, respectively, a 5% and a 15% predictive gain in overall predictive mean square error over our earlier downscaler model (Berrocal et al., 2010b). Perhaps more importantly, the predictive gain is greater at hold-out sites that are far from monitoring sites. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Grouping Influences Output Interference in Short-term Memory: A Mixture Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Min-Suk; Oh, Byung-Il

    2016-01-01

    Output interference is a source of forgetting induced by recalling. We investigated how grouping influences output interference in short-term memory. In Experiment 1, the participants were asked to remember four colored items. Those items were grouped by temporal coincidence as well as spatial alignment: two items were presented in the first memory array and two were presented in the second, and the items in both arrays were either vertically or horizontally aligned as well. The participants then performed two recall tasks in sequence by selecting a color presented at a cued location from a color wheel. In the same-group condition, the participants reported both items from the same memory array; however, in the different-group condition, the participants reported one item from each memory array. We analyzed participant responses with a mixture model, which yielded two measures: guess rate and precision of recalled memories. The guess rate in the second recall was higher for the different-group condition than for the same-group condition; however, the memory precisions obtained for both conditions were similarly degraded in the second recall. In Experiment 2, we varied the probability of the same- and different-group conditions with a ratio of 3 to 7. We expected output interference to be higher in the same-group condition than in the different-group condition. This is because items of the other group are more likely to be probed in the second recall phase and, thus, protecting those items during the first recall phase leads to a better performance. Nevertheless, the same pattern of results was robustly reproduced, suggesting grouping shields the grouped items from output interference because of the secured accessibility. We discussed how grouping influences output interference.

  17. Grouping influences output interference in short-term memory: a mixture modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Suk eKang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Output interference is a source of forgetting induced by recalling. We investigated how grouping influences output interference in short-term memory. In Experiment 1, the participants were asked to remember four colored items. Those items were grouped by temporal coincidence as well as spatial alignment: two items were presented in the first memory array and two were presented in the second, and the items in both arrays were either vertically or horizontally aligned as well. The participants then performed two recall tasks in sequence by selecting a color presented at a cued location from a color wheel. In the same-group condition, the participants reported both items from the same memory array; however, in the different-group condition, the participants reported one item from each memory array. We analyzed participant responses with a mixture model, which yielded two measures: guess rate and precision of recalled memories. The guess rate in the second recall was higher for the different-group condition than for the same-group condition; however, the memory precisions obtained for both conditions were similarly degraded in the second recall. In Experiment 2, we varied the probability of the same- and different-group conditions with a ratio of 3 to 7. We expected output interference to be higher in the same-group condition than in the different-group condition. This is because items of the other group are more likely to be probed in the second recall phase and, thus, protecting those items during the first recall phase leads to a better performance. Nevertheless, the same pattern of results was robustly reproduced, suggesting grouping shields the grouped items from output interference because of the secured accessibility. We discussed how grouping influences output interference.

  18. An Optimized Grey Dynamic Model for Forecasting the Output of High-Tech Industry in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Xin Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The grey dynamic model by convolution integral with the first-order derivative of the 1-AGO data and n series related, abbreviated as GDMC(1,n, performs well in modelling and forecasting of a grey system. To improve the modelling accuracy of GDMC(1,n, n interpolation coefficients (taken as unknown parameters are introduced into the background values of the n variables. The parameters optimization is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem and is solved collectively using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The optimized result has been verified by a case study of the economic output of high-tech industry in China. Comparisons of the obtained modelling results from the optimized GDMC(1,n model with the traditional one demonstrate that the optimal algorithm is a good alternative for parameters optimization of the GDMC(1,n model. The modelling results can assist the government in developing future policies regarding high-tech industry management.

  19. Decreased Hering-Breuer input-output entrainment in a mouse model of Rett syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishi R Dhingra

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Rett syndrome, a severe X-linked neurodevelopmental disorder caused by mutations in the gene encoding methyl-CpG-binding protein 2 (Mecp2, is associated with a highly irregular respiratory pattern including severe upper-airway dysfunction. Recent work suggests that hyperexcitability of the Hering-Breuer reflex (HBR pathway contributes to respiratory dysrhythmia in Mecp2 mutant mice. To assess how enhanced HBR input impacts respiratory entrainment by sensory afferents in closed-loop in vivo-like conditions, we investigated the input (vagal stimulus trains – output (phrenic bursting entrainment via the HBR in wild-type and Mecp2-deficient mice. Using the in situ perfused brainstem preparation, which maintains an intact pontomedullary axis capable of generating an in vivo-like respiratory rhythm in the absence of the HBR, we mimicked the HBR feedback input by stimulating the vagus nerve (at threshold current, 0.5 ms pulse duration, 75 Hz pulse frequency, 100 ms train duration at an inter-burst frequency matching that of the intrinsic oscillation of the inspiratory motor output of each preparation. Using this approach, we observed significant input-output entrainment in wild-type mice as measured by the maximum of the cross-correlation function, the peak of the instantaneous relative phase distribution, and the mutual information of the instantaneous phases. This entrainment was associated with a reduction in inspiratory duration during feedback stimulation. In contrast, the strength of input-output entrainment was significantly weaker in Mecp2-/+ mice. However, Mecp2-/+ mice also had a reduced inspiratory duration during stimulation, indicating that reflex behavior in the HBR pathway was intact. Together, these observations suggest that the respiratory network compensates for enhanced sensitivity of HBR inputs by reducing HBR input-output entrainment.

  20. Development of algorithm for depreciation costs allocation in dynamic input-output industrial enterprise model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keller Alevtina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the issue of allocation of depreciation costs in the dynamic inputoutput model of an industrial enterprise. Accounting the depreciation costs in such a model improves the policy of fixed assets management. It is particularly relevant to develop the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs in the construction of dynamic input-output model of an industrial enterprise, since such enterprises have a significant amount of fixed assets. Implementation of terms of the adequacy of such an algorithm itself allows: evaluating the appropriateness of investments in fixed assets, studying the final financial results of an industrial enterprise, depending on management decisions in the depreciation policy. It is necessary to note that the model in question for the enterprise is always degenerate. It is caused by the presence of zero rows in the matrix of capital expenditures by lines of structural elements unable to generate fixed assets (part of the service units, households, corporate consumers. The paper presents the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs for the model. This algorithm was developed by the authors and served as the basis for further development of the flowchart for subsequent implementation with use of software. The construction of such algorithm and its use for dynamic input-output models of industrial enterprises is actualized by international acceptance of the effectiveness of the use of input-output models for national and regional economic systems. This is what allows us to consider that the solutions discussed in the article are of interest to economists of various industrial enterprises.

  1. Usefulness of non-linear input-output models for economic impact analyses in tourism and recreation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Peerlings, J.H.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    In tourism and recreation management it is still common practice to apply traditional input–output (IO) economic impact models, despite their well-known limitations. In this study the authors analyse the usefulness of applying a non-linear input–output (NLIO) model, in which price-induced input

  2. Input vs. Output Taxation—A DSGE Approach to Modelling Resource Decoupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Antosiewicz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Environmental taxes constitute a crucial instrument aimed at reducing resource use through lower production losses, resource-leaner products, and more resource-efficient production processes. In this paper we focus on material use and apply a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE model to study two types of taxation: tax on material inputs used by industry, energy, construction, and transport sectors, and tax on output of these sectors. We allow for endogenous adoption of resource-saving technologies. We calibrate the model for the EU27 area using an IO matrix. We consider taxation introduced from 2021 and simulate its impact until 2050. We compare the taxes along their ability to induce reduction in material use and raise revenue. We also consider the effect of spending this revenue on reduction of labour taxation. We find that input and output taxation create contrasting incentives and have opposite effects on resource efficiency. The material input tax induces investment in efficiency-improving technology which, in the long term, results in GDP and employment by 15%–20% higher than in the case of a comparable output tax. We also find that using revenues to reduce taxes on labour has stronger beneficial effects for the input tax.

  3. Modelling health and output at business cycle horizons for the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar

    2010-07-01

    In this paper we employ a theoretical framework - a simple macro model augmented with health - that draws guidance from the Keynesian view of business cycles to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in health expenditure and output at business cycle horizons for the USA. The variance decomposition analysis of shocks reveals that at business cycle horizons permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in output, while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in health expenditures. We undertake a shock decomposition analysis for private health expenditures versus public health expenditures and interestingly find that while transitory shocks are more important for private sector expenditures, permanent shocks dominate public health expenditures. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Output tracking and synchronization of chaotic Chua's circuit with disturbances via model predictive regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Tiejun; Feng Gang

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the output tracking and synchronization problem for a piecewise linear chaotic Chua's circuit, which is expected to follow the reference signal generated by another autonomous chaotic Chua's circuit. A novel model predictive regulator is proposed to guarantee the chaos synchronization in the presence of external disturbance. Moreover with this regulator, the optimal transient tracking performance for synchronization is ensured even when the piecewise autonomous and controlled Chua's circuits switch asynchronously. The proposed approach is highly efficient in the sense that the regulation conditions can be satisfied by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities and several Sylvester equations instead of many partial differential regulator equations in the well-known nonlinear output regulation theory.

  5. Detecting Weather Radar Clutter by Information Fusion With Satellite Images and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2006-01-01

    A method for detecting clutter in weather radar images by information fusion is presented. Radar data, satellite images, and output from a numerical weather prediction model are combined and the radar echoes are classified using supervised classification. The presented method uses indirect...... information on precipitation in the atmosphere from Meteosat-8 multispectral images and near-surface temperature estimates from the DMI-HIRLAM-S05 numerical weather prediction model. Alternatively, an operational nowcasting product called 'Precipitating Clouds' based on Meteosat-8 input is used. A scale...

  6. INTEGRATION OF INPUT - OUTPUT APPROACH INTO AGENT-BASED MODELING. PART 2. INTERREGIONAL ANALYSIS IN AN ARTIFICIAL ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domozhirov D. A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article demonstrates the possibilities of spatial analysis provided by the Agent-Based Multiregional Input - Output Model (ABMIOM of the Russian economy. The basic hypothesis of the ABMIOM is that agents’ decisions at the microeconomic level lead to spatial changes at the macro level. Confirmation of this hypothesis requires experimental calculations with changes in various parameters that influence agents’ decisions (such as prices, taxes, tariffs, etc.. Analyzing the results of these calculations requires moving from microeconomic data to the macro level. The paper proposes a method for the structural analysis of the model simulation results using input-output tables. The method involves statistical aggregation of calculation results, construction of regional, national and interregional input-output tables and structural analysis of the obtained tables including calculation of regional Leontief multipliers. The method proposed is used to study the influence of the level of transport costs on the geographical structure of trade flows. The results of the experiments confirmed that with the increase of transportation costs economic agents prefer to interact with nearest agents, which leads to a decreased interregional commodity exchange and to economic «insulation» of the regions.

  7. Including investment risk in large-scale power market models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard; Meibom, P.

    2003-01-01

    can be included in large-scale partial equilibrium models of the power market. The analyses are divided into a part about risk measures appropriate for power market investors and a more technical part about the combination of a risk-adjustment model and a partial-equilibrium model. To illustrate...... the analyses quantitatively, a framework based on an iterative interaction between the equilibrium model and a separate risk-adjustment module was constructed. To illustrate the features of the proposed modelling approach we examined how uncertainty in demand and variable costs affects the optimal choice...

  8. Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Outputs to Inform Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, Cameron; Reynolds, Lara; Jones, Russell; Horton, Radley; Smith, Joel; Fries, J. Stephen; Tryby, Michael; Spero, Tanya; Nolte, Chris

    2015-01-01

    Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect between the nature of the events that cause damaging floods and the models used to project how climate change might influence their magnitude. This could be a particular problem when developing scenarios to inform future storm water management options under future climate scenarios. In this study we sought to close this gap, using sub-daily outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) from each of the nine climate regions in the United States. Specifically, we asked 1) whether WRF outputs projected consistent patterns of change for sub-daily and daily precipitation extremes; and 2) whether this dynamically downscaled model projected different magnitudes of change for 3-hourly vs 24-hourly extreme events. We extracted annual maximum values for 3-hour through 24-hour precipitation totals from an 11-year time series of hindcast (1995-2005) and mid-century (2045-2055) climate, and calculated the direction and magnitude of change for 3-hour and 24-hour extreme events over this timeframe. The model results project that the magnitude of both 3-hour and 24-hour events will increase over most regions of the United States, but there was no clear or consistent difference in the relative magnitudes of change for sub-daily vs daily events.

  9. Prediction model and treatment of high-output ileostomy in colorectal cancer surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujino, Shiki; Miyoshi, Norikatsu; Ohue, Masayuki; Takahashi, Yuske; Yasui, Masayoshi; Sugimura, Keijiro; Akita, Hirohumi; Takahashi, Hidenori; Kobayashi, Shogo; Yano, Masahiko; Sakon, Masato

    2017-09-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine the risk factors of high-output ileostomy (HOI), which is associated with electrolyte abnormalities and/or stoma complications, and to create a prediction model. The medical records of 68 patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery with ileostomy between 2011 and 2016 were retrospectively investigated. All the patients underwent surgical resection for colorectal cancer at the Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases (Osaka, Japan). A total of 7 patients with inadequate data on ileostomy output were excluded. Using a group of 50 patients who underwent surgery between 2011 and 2013, the risk of HOI was classified by a decision tree model using a partition platform. The HOI prediction model was validated in an additional group of 11 patients who underwent surgery between 2014 and 2016. Univariate analysis of clinical factors demonstrated that young age (P=0.003) and high white blood cell (WBC) count (Pmodel, three factors (gender, age and WBC on postoperative day 1) were generated for the prediction of HOI. The patients were classified into five groups, and HOI was observed in 0-88% of patients in each group. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.838. The model was validated by an external dataset in an independent patient group, for which the AUC was 0.792. In conclusion, HOI patients were classified and an HOI prediction model was developed that may help clinicians in postoperative care.

  10. Monetary Policy and Industrial Output in the BRICS Countries: A Markov-Switching Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kutu Adebayo Augustine

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001 Markov-Switching Model (MSM and monthly data from 1994.01–2013.12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries’ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It can also be observed that the area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It has also been established that there is a high probability of moving from state one (recession to state two (expansion and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy, especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output.

  11. Input-Output Modeling for Urban Energy Consumption in Beijing: Dynamics and Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lixiao; Hu, Qiuhong; Zhang, Fan

    2014-01-01

    Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect) energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making. PMID:24595199

  12. Progressive IRP Models for Power Resources Including EPP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiping Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the view of optimizing regional power supply and demand, the paper makes effective planning scheduling of supply and demand side resources including energy efficiency power plant (EPP, to achieve the target of benefit, cost, and environmental constraints. In order to highlight the characteristics of different supply and demand resources in economic, environmental, and carbon constraints, three planning models with progressive constraints are constructed. Results of three models by the same example show that the best solutions to different models are different. The planning model including EPP has obvious advantages considering pollutant and carbon emission constraints, which confirms the advantages of low cost and emissions of EPP. The construction of progressive IRP models for power resources considering EPP has a certain reference value for guiding the planning and layout of EPP within other power resources and achieving cost and environmental objectives.

  13. Reactive Power Pricing Model Considering the Randomness of Wind Power Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Zhong; Wu, Zhou

    2018-01-01

    With the increase of wind power capacity integrated into grid, the influence of the randomness of wind power output on the reactive power distribution of grid is gradually highlighted. Meanwhile, the power market reform puts forward higher requirements for reasonable pricing of reactive power service. Based on it, the article combined the optimal power flow model considering wind power randomness with integrated cost allocation method to price reactive power. Meanwhile, considering the advantages and disadvantages of the present cost allocation method and marginal cost pricing, an integrated cost allocation method based on optimal power flow tracing is proposed. The model realized the optimal power flow distribution of reactive power with the minimal integrated cost and wind power integration, under the premise of guaranteeing the balance of reactive power pricing. Finally, through the analysis of multi-scenario calculation examples and the stochastic simulation of wind power outputs, the article compared the results of the model pricing and the marginal cost pricing, which proved that the model is accurate and effective.

  14. Variation in the Mississippi River Plume from Data Synthesis of Model Outputs and MODIS Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, C.; Kolker, A.; Chu, P. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the Mississippi River (MR) plume's interaction with the open ocean is crucial for understanding many processes in the Gulf of Mexico. Though the Mississippi River and its delta and plume have been studied extensively, recent archives of model products and satellite imagery have allowed us to highlight patterns in plume behavior over the last two decades through large scale data synthesis. Using 8 years of USGS discharge data and Landsat imagery, we identified the spatial extent, geographic patterns, depth, and freshwater concentration of the MR plume across seasons and years. Using 20 years of HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) analysis and reanalysis model output, and several years of NGOFS FVCOM model outputs, we mapped the minimum and maximum spatial area of the MR plume, and its varied extent east and west. From the synthesis and analysis of these data, the statistical probability of the MR plume's spatial area and geographical extent were computed. Measurements of the MR plume and its response to river discharge may predict future behavior and provide a path forward to understanding MR plume influence on nearby ecosystems.

  15. Modeling heart rate variability including the effect of sleep stages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliński, Mateusz; Gierałtowski, Jan; Żebrowski, Jan

    2016-02-01

    We propose a model for heart rate variability (HRV) of a healthy individual during sleep with the assumption that the heart rate variability is predominantly a random process. Autonomic nervous system activity has different properties during different sleep stages, and this affects many physiological systems including the cardiovascular system. Different properties of HRV can be observed during each particular sleep stage. We believe that taking into account the sleep architecture is crucial for modeling the human nighttime HRV. The stochastic model of HRV introduced by Kantelhardt et al. was used as the initial starting point. We studied the statistical properties of sleep in healthy adults, analyzing 30 polysomnographic recordings, which provided realistic information about sleep architecture. Next, we generated synthetic hypnograms and included them in the modeling of nighttime RR interval series. The results of standard HRV linear analysis and of nonlinear analysis (Shannon entropy, Poincaré plots, and multiscale multifractal analysis) show that—in comparison with real data—the HRV signals obtained from our model have very similar properties, in particular including the multifractal characteristics at different time scales. The model described in this paper is discussed in the context of normal sleep. However, its construction is such that it should allow to model heart rate variability in sleep disorders. This possibility is briefly discussed.

  16. A hybrid input–output multi-objective model to assess economic–energy–environment trade-offs in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, Ariovaldo Lopes de; Antunes, Carlos Henggeler; Freire, Fausto; Henriques, Carla Oliveira

    2015-01-01

    A multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) model based on a hybrid Input–Output (IO) framework is presented. This model aims at assessing the trade-offs between economic, energy, environmental (E3) and social objectives in the Brazilian economic system. This combination of multi-objective models with Input–Output Analysis (IOA) plays a supplementary role in understanding the interactions between the economic and energy systems, and the corresponding impacts on the environment, offering a consistent framework for assessing the effects of distinct policies on these systems. Firstly, the System of National Accounts (SNA) is reorganized to include the National Energy Balance, creating a hybrid IO framework that is extended to assess Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and the employment level. The objective functions considered are the maximization of GDP (gross domestic product) and employment levels, as well as the minimization of energy consumption and GHG emissions. An interactive method enabling a progressive and selective search of non-dominated solutions with distinct characteristics and underlying trade-offs is utilized. Illustrative results indicate that the maximization of GDP and the employment levels lead to an increase of both energy consumption and GHG emissions, while the minimization of either GHG emissions or energy consumption cause negative impacts on GDP and employment. - Highlights: • A hybrid Input–Output multi-objective model is applied to the Brazilian economy. • Objective functions are GDP, employment level, energy consumption and GHG emissions. • Interactive search process identifies trade-offs between the competing objectives. • Positive correlations between GDP growth and employment. • Positive correlations between energy consumption and GHG emissions

  17. A hydrodynamic model for granular material flows including segregation effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberg Dominik

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The simulation of granular flows including segregation effects in large industrial processes using particle methods is accurate, but very time-consuming. To overcome the long computation times a macroscopic model is a natural choice. Therefore, we couple a mixture theory based segregation model to a hydrodynamic model of Navier-Stokes-type, describing the flow behavior of the granular material. The granular flow model is a hybrid model derived from kinetic theory and a soil mechanical approach to cover the regime of fast dilute flow, as well as slow dense flow, where the density of the granular material is close to the maximum packing density. Originally, the segregation model has been formulated by Thornton and Gray for idealized avalanches. It is modified and adapted to be in the preferred form for the coupling. In the final coupled model the segregation process depends on the local state of the granular system. On the other hand, the granular system changes as differently mixed regions of the granular material differ i.e. in the packing density. For the modeling process the focus lies on dry granular material flows of two particle types differing only in size but can be easily extended to arbitrary granular mixtures of different particle size and density. To solve the coupled system a finite volume approach is used. To test the model the rotational mixing of small and large particles in a tumbler is simulated.

  18. A hydrodynamic model for granular material flows including segregation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilberg, Dominik; Klar, Axel; Steiner, Konrad

    2017-06-01

    The simulation of granular flows including segregation effects in large industrial processes using particle methods is accurate, but very time-consuming. To overcome the long computation times a macroscopic model is a natural choice. Therefore, we couple a mixture theory based segregation model to a hydrodynamic model of Navier-Stokes-type, describing the flow behavior of the granular material. The granular flow model is a hybrid model derived from kinetic theory and a soil mechanical approach to cover the regime of fast dilute flow, as well as slow dense flow, where the density of the granular material is close to the maximum packing density. Originally, the segregation model has been formulated by Thornton and Gray for idealized avalanches. It is modified and adapted to be in the preferred form for the coupling. In the final coupled model the segregation process depends on the local state of the granular system. On the other hand, the granular system changes as differently mixed regions of the granular material differ i.e. in the packing density. For the modeling process the focus lies on dry granular material flows of two particle types differing only in size but can be easily extended to arbitrary granular mixtures of different particle size and density. To solve the coupled system a finite volume approach is used. To test the model the rotational mixing of small and large particles in a tumbler is simulated.

  19. ARX model-based damage sensitive features for structural damage localization using output-only measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Koushik; Bhattacharya, Bishakh; Ray-Chaudhuri, Samit

    2015-08-01

    The study proposes a set of four ARX model (autoregressive model with exogenous input) based damage sensitive features (DSFs) for structural damage detection and localization using the dynamic responses of structures, where the information regarding the input excitation may not be available. In the proposed framework, one of the output responses of a multi-degree-of-freedom system is assumed as the input and the rest are considered as the output. The features are based on ARX model coefficients, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test statistical distance, and the model residual error. At first, a mathematical formulation is provided to establish the relation between the change in ARX model coefficients and the normalized stiffness of a structure. KS test parameters are then described to show the sensitivity of statistical distance of ARX model residual error with the damage location. The efficiency of the proposed set of DSFs is evaluated by conducting numerical studies involving a shear building and a steel moment-resisting frame. To simulate the damage scenarios in these structures, stiffness degradation of different elements is considered. It is observed from this study that the proposed set of DSFs is good indicator for damage location even in the presence of damping, multiple damages, noise, and parametric uncertainties. The performance of these DSFs is compared with mode shape curvature-based approach for damage localization. An experimental study has also been conducted on a three-dimensional six-storey steel moment frame to understand the performance of these DSFs under real measurement conditions. It has been observed that the proposed set of DSFs can satisfactorily localize damage in the structure.

  20. Simple suggestions for including vertical physics in oil spill models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Asaro, Eric; University of Washington, Seatle, WA

    2001-01-01

    Current models of oil spills include no vertical physics. They neglect the effect of vertical water motions on the transport and concentration of floating oil. Some simple ways to introduce vertical physics are suggested here. The major suggestion is to routinely measure the density stratification of the upper ocean during oil spills in order to develop a database on the effect of stratification. (Author)

  1. Model outputs for each hotspot site to identify the likely environmental, economic and social effects of proposed remediation strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleskens, Luuk; Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike

    2012-01-01

    -explicit cost-benefit analysis to calculate the financial viability of technologies. After setting up the PESERA-DESMICE modelling system, a series of scenarios were designed to assess land degradation and land (biomass) productivity under different circumstances. A scenario typology including baseline...... scenarios, technology scenarios, policy scenarios, adoption scenarios and global scenarios was used for this purpose. A total of 65 different scenario simulations were performed for 22 different technologies in 12 study sites. The report first explains how the models were calibrated and how the scenarios...... and increase food production. A major bottleneck for adoption is financial viability. Low (zero) cost agronomic measures and other options that deliver important benefits in the short term are the preferred technologies. Stakeholder evaluation and model output mostly concur on this. There are important design...

  2. Wavelet transform-vector quantization compression of supercomputer ocean model simulation output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, J N; Brislawn, C M

    1992-11-12

    We describe a new procedure for efficient compression of digital information for storage and transmission purposes. The algorithm involves a discrete wavelet transform subband decomposition of the data set, followed by vector quantization of the wavelet transform coefficients using application-specific vector quantizers. The new vector quantizer design procedure optimizes the assignment of both memory resources and vector dimensions to the transform subbands by minimizing an exponential rate-distortion functional subject to constraints on both overall bit-rate and encoder complexity. The wavelet-vector quantization method, which originates in digital image compression. is applicable to the compression of other multidimensional data sets possessing some degree of smoothness. In this paper we discuss the use of this technique for compressing the output of supercomputer simulations of global climate models. The data presented here comes from Semtner-Chervin global ocean models run at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and at the Los Alamos Advanced Computing Laboratory.

  3. Low Cardiac Output Leads Hepatic Fibrosis in Right Heart Failure Model Rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimoto, Yoshitaka; Urashima, Takashi; Shimura, Daisuke; Ito, Reiji; Kawachi, Sadataka; Kajimura, Ichige; Akaike, Toru; Kusakari, Yoichiro; Fujiwara, Masako; Ogawa, Kiyoshi; Goda, Nobuhito; Ida, Hiroyuki; Minamisawa, Susumu

    2016-01-01

    Background Hepatic fibrosis progresses with right heart failure, and becomes cardiac cirrhosis in a severe case. Although its causal factor still remains unclear. Here we evaluated the progression of hepatic fibrosis using a pulmonary artery banding (PAB)-induced right heart failure model and investigated whether cardiac output (CO) is responsible for the progression of hepatic fibrosis. Methods and Results Five-week-old Sprague-Dawley rats divided into the PAB and sham-operated control groups. After 4 weeks from operation, we measured CO by echocardiography, and hepatic fibrosis ratio by pathological examination using a color analyzer. In the PAB group, CO was significantly lower by 48% than that in the control group (78.2±27.6 and 150.1±31.2 ml/min, Pright failure heart model rats. PMID:26863419

  4. Puget Sound ocean acidification model outputs - Modeling the impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems and populations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...

  5. TS Fuzzy Model-Based Controller Design for a Class of Nonlinear Systems Including Nonsmooth Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vafamand, Navid; Asemani, Mohammad Hassan; Khayatiyan, Alireza

    2018-01-01

    criterion, new robust controller design conditions in terms of linear matrix inequalities are derived. Three practical case studies, electric power steering system, a helicopter model and servo-mechanical system, are presented to demonstrate the importance of such class of nonlinear systems comprising......This paper proposes a novel robust controller design for a class of nonlinear systems including hard nonlinearity functions. The proposed approach is based on Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy modeling, nonquadratic Lyapunov function, and nonparallel distributed compensation scheme. In this paper, a novel...... TS modeling of the nonlinear dynamics with signum functions is proposed. This model can exactly represent the original nonlinear system with hard nonlinearity while the discontinuous signum functions are not approximated. Based on the bounded-input-bounded-output stability scheme and L₁ performance...

  6. Neural Systems with Numerically Matched Input-Output Statistic: Isotonic Bivariate Statistical Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Fiori

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Bivariate statistical modeling from incomplete data is a useful statistical tool that allows to discover the model underlying two data sets when the data in the two sets do not correspond in size nor in ordering. Such situation may occur when the sizes of the two data sets do not match (i.e., there are “holes” in the data or when the data sets have been acquired independently. Also, statistical modeling is useful when the amount of available data is enough to show relevant statistical features of the phenomenon underlying the data. We propose to tackle the problem of statistical modeling via a neural (nonlinear system that is able to match its input-output statistic to the statistic of the available data sets. A key point of the new implementation proposed here is that it is based on look-up-table (LUT neural systems, which guarantee a computationally advantageous way of implementing neural systems. A number of numerical experiments, performed on both synthetic and real-world data sets, illustrate the features of the proposed modeling procedure.

  7. Consistency Between Convection Allowing Model Output and Passive Microwave Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bytheway, J. L.; Kummerow, C. D.

    2018-01-01

    Observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite were used along with precipitation forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model to assess and interpret differences between observed and modeled storms. Using a feature-based approach, precipitating objects were identified in both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Stage IV multisensor precipitation product and HRRR forecast at lead times of 1, 2, and 3 h at valid times corresponding to GPM overpasses. Precipitating objects were selected for further study if (a) the observed feature occurred entirely within the swath of the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and (b) the HRRR model predicted it at all three forecast lead times. Output from the HRRR model was used to simulate microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs), which were compared to those observed by the GMI. Simulated Tbs were found to have biases at both the warm and cold ends of the distribution, corresponding to the stratiform/anvil and convective areas of the storms, respectively. Several experiments altered both the simulation microphysics and hydrometeor classification in order to evaluate potential shortcomings in the model's representation of precipitating clouds. In general, inconsistencies between observed and simulated brightness temperatures were most improved when transferring snow water content to supercooled liquid hydrometeor classes.

  8. Exclusive queueing model including the choice of service windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Masahiro; Yanagisawa, Daichi; Nishinari, Katsuhiro

    2018-01-01

    In a queueing system involving multiple service windows, choice behavior is a significant concern. This paper incorporates the choice of service windows into a queueing model with a floor represented by discrete cells. We contrived a logit-based choice algorithm for agents considering the numbers of agents and the distances to all service windows. Simulations were conducted with various parameters of agent choice preference for these two elements and for different floor configurations, including the floor length and the number of service windows. We investigated the model from the viewpoint of transit times and entrance block rates. The influences of the parameters on these factors were surveyed in detail and we determined that there are optimum floor lengths that minimize the transit times. In addition, we observed that the transit times were determined almost entirely by the entrance block rates. The results of the presented model are relevant to understanding queueing systems including the choice of service windows and can be employed to optimize facility design and floor management.

  9. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant environmental impact report: an outline of the input--output model and the impact projections methodology. Technical document, socioeconomic portion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-07-01

    A static model in the form of a regional input-output model was constructed for Eddy and Lea Counties, New Mexico. Besides the WIPP project, the model was also used for several other projects to determine the economic impact of proposed new facilities and developments. Both private and public sectors are covered. Sub-sectors for WIPP below-ground construction, above-ground construction, and operation and transport are included

  10. A comparative verification of high resolution precipitation forecasts using model output statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Plas, Emiel; Schmeits, Maurice; Hooijman, Nicolien; Kok, Kees

    2017-04-01

    Verification of localized events such as precipitation has become even more challenging with the advent of high-resolution meso-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). The realism of a forecast suggests that it should compare well against precipitation radar imagery with similar resolution, both spatially and temporally. Spatial verification methods solve some of the representativity issues that point verification gives rise to. In this study a verification strategy based on model output statistics is applied that aims to address both double penalty and resolution effects that are inherent to comparisons of NWP models with different resolutions. Using predictors based on spatial precipitation patterns around a set of stations, an extended logistic regression (ELR) equation is deduced, leading to a probability forecast distribution of precipitation for each NWP model, analysis and lead time. The ELR equations are derived for predictands based on areal calibrated radar precipitation and SYNOP observations. The aim is to extract maximum information from a series of precipitation forecasts, like a trained forecaster would. The method is applied to the non-hydrostatic model Harmonie (2.5 km resolution), Hirlam (11 km resolution) and the ECMWF model (16 km resolution), overall yielding similar Brier skill scores for the 3 post-processed models, but larger differences for individual lead times. Besides, the Fractions Skill Score is computed using the 3 deterministic forecasts, showing somewhat better skill for the Harmonie model. In other words, despite the realism of Harmonie precipitation forecasts, they only perform similarly or somewhat better than precipitation forecasts from the 2 lower resolution models, at least in the Netherlands.

  11. Towards Measures to Establish the Relevance of Climate Model Output for Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, L.; Smith, L. A.

    2007-12-01

    to weight climate model output in the decision process; one obvious example is the question of over what spatial and time averages modelers expect information in current climate distributions to be robust. The IPCC itself suggests continental/seasonal, while distributions over 10's of kilometers/hourly is on offer. Our aim here is not to resolve this discrepancy, but to develop methods with which it can be addressed. This is illustrated in the context of using another physically based, imperfect model setting: using Newton's laws in an actual case of NASA hazard evaluation. Our aim is to develop transparent standards of good practice managing expectations, which will allow model improvements over the next decades to be seen as progress by the users of climate science.

  12. Statistical downscaling of regional climate model output to achieve projections of precipitation extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric M. Laflamme

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work we perform a statistical downscaling by applying a CDF transformation function to local-level daily precipitation extremes (from NCDC station data and corresponding NARCCAP regional climate model (RCM output to derive local-scale projections. These high-resolution projections are essential in assessing the impacts of projected climate change. The downscaling method is performed on 58 locations throughout New England, and from the projected distribution of extreme precipitation local-level 25-year return levels are calculated. To obtain uncertainty estimates for return levels, three procedures are employed: a parametric bootstrapping with mean corrected confidence intervals, a non-parametric bootstrapping with BCa (bias corrected and acceleration intervals, and a Bayesian model. In all cases, results are presented via distributions of differences in return levels between predicted and historical periods. Results from the three procedures show very few New England locations with significant increases in 25-year return levels from the historical to projected periods. This may indicate that projected trends in New England precipitation tend to be statistically less significant than suggested by many studies. For all three procedures, downscaled results are highly dependent on RCM and GCM model choice.

  13. A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.

    2002-01-01

    Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

  14. Does the DHET research output subsidy model penalise high-citation publication? A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yolande X. Harley

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available South African universities are awarded annual subsidy from the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET based on their research publication output. Journal article subsidy is based on the number of research publications in DHET-approved journals as well as the proportional contribution of authors from the university. Co-authorship with other institutions reduces the subsidy received by a university, which may be a disincentive to collaboration. Inter-institutional collaboration may affect the scientific impact of resulting publications, as indicated by the number of citations received. We analysed 812 journal articles published in 2011 by authors from the University of Cape Town’s Faculty of Health Sciences to determine if there was a significant relationship between subsidy units received and (1 citation count and (2 field-weighted citation impact. We found that subsidy units had a significant inverse relationship with both citation count (r= -0.247; CI = -0.311 – -0.182; p"less than"0.0001 and field-weighted citation impact (r= -0.192; CI= -0.258 – -0.125; p"less than"0.0001. These findings suggest that the annual subsidy awarded to universities for research output may inadvertently penalise high-citation publication. Revision of the funding model to address this possibility would better align DHET funding allocation with the strategic plans of the South African Department of Science and Technology, the National Research Foundation and the South African Medical Research Council, and may better support publication of greater impact research.

  15. Impacts of manure application on SWAT model outputs in the Xiangxi River watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ruimin; Wang, Qingrui; Xu, Fei; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia

    2017-12-01

    SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model has been widely used to simulate agricultural non-point source (ANPS) pollution; however, the impacts of livestock manure application on SWAT model outputs have not been well studied. The objective of this study was to investigate the environmental effects of livestock manure application based on the SWAT model in the Xiangxi River watershed, which is one of the largest tributaries of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China. Three newly-built manure databases (NB) were created and applied to different subbasins based on the actual livestock manure discharging amount. The calibration and validation values of SWAT model outputs obtained from the NB manure application and the original mixed (OM) manure were compared. The study results are as follows: (1) The livestock industry of Xingshan County developed quickly between 2005 and 2015. The downstream of the Xiangxi River (Huangliang, Shuiyuesi and Xiakou) had the largest livestock amount, and largely accounted for manure, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) production (>50%). (2) The NB manure application resulted in less phosphorus pollution (1686.35 kg for ORGP and 31.70 kg for MINP) than the OM manure application. Compared with the upstream, the downstream was influenced more by the manure application. (3) The SWAT results obtained from the NB manure had a better calibration and validation values than those from the OM manure. For ORGP, R2 and NSE values were 0.77 and 0.65 for the NB manure calibration; and the same values for the OM manure were 0.72 and 0.61, respectively. For MINP, R2 values were 0.65 and 0.62 for the NB manure and the OM manure, and the NSE values were 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The results indicated that the built-in fertilizer database in SWAT has its limitation because it is set up for the simulation in the USA. Thus, when livestock manure is considered in a SWAT simulation, a newly built fertilizer database needs to be set up to represent

  16. Generic uncertainty model for DETRA for environmental consequence analyses. Application and sample outputs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suolanen, V.; Ilvonen, M. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland). Nuclear Energy

    1998-10-01

    Computer model DETRA applies a dynamic compartment modelling approach. The compartment structure of each considered application can be tailored individually. This flexible modelling method makes it possible that the transfer of radionuclides can be considered in various cases: aquatic environment and related food chains, terrestrial environment, food chains in general and food stuffs, body burden analyses of humans, etc. In the former study on this subject, modernization of the user interface of DETRA code was carried out. This new interface works in Windows environment and the usability of the code has been improved. The objective of this study has been to further develop and diversify the user interface so that also probabilistic uncertainty analyses can be performed by DETRA. The most common probability distributions are available: uniform, truncated Gaussian and triangular. The corresponding logarithmic distributions are also available. All input data related to a considered case can be varied, although this option is seldomly needed. The calculated output values can be selected as monitored values at certain simulation time points defined by the user. The results of a sensitivity run are immediately available after simulation as graphical presentations. These outcomes are distributions generated for varied parameters, density functions of monitored parameters and complementary cumulative density functions (CCDF). An application considered in connection with this work was the estimation of contamination of milk caused by radioactive deposition of Cs (10 kBq(Cs-137)/m{sup 2}). The multi-sequence calculation model applied consisted of a pasture modelling part and a dormant season modelling part. These two sequences were linked periodically simulating the realistic practice of care taking of domestic animals in Finland. The most important parameters were varied in this exercise. The performed diversifying of the user interface of DETRA code seems to provide an

  17. Unit 16 - Output

    OpenAIRE

    Unit 16, CC in GIS; Star, Jeffrey L.

    1990-01-01

    This unit discusses issues related to GIS output, including the different types of output possible and the hardware for producing each. It describes text, graphic and digital data that can be generated by a GIS as well as line printers, dot matrix printers/plotters, pen plotters, optical scanners and cathode ray tubes (CRTs) as technologies for generating the output.

  18. Using ex ante output elicitation to model state-contingent technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chambers, R.G.; Serra, T.; Stefanou, S.E.

    2015-01-01

    Survey-elicited ex ante outputs are used to develop an empirical representation of an Arrow–Debreu–Savage state-contingent technology in an activity-analysis framework. An empirical test of output-cubicality is developed for that framework. We apply those tools to assess production characteristics

  19. CLPX-Model: Rapid Update Cycle 40km (RUC-40) Model Output Reduced Data, Version 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Rapid Update Cycle, version 2 at 40km (RUC-2, known to the Cold Land Processes community as RUC40) model is a Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS)...

  20. Model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  1. Atlantis model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  2. Modelling Implicit Communication in Multi-Agent Systems with Hybrid Input/Output Automata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Capiluppi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We propose an extension of Hybrid I/O Automata (HIOAs to model agent systems and their implicit communication through perturbation of the environment, like localization of objects or radio signals diffusion and detection. To this end we decided to specialize some variables of the HIOAs whose values are functions both of time and space. We call them world variables. Basically they are treated similarly to the other variables of HIOAs, but they have the function of representing the interaction of each automaton with the surrounding environment, hence they can be output, input or internal variables. Since these special variables have the role of simulating implicit communication, their dynamics are specified both in time and space, because they model the perturbations induced by the agent to the environment, and the perturbations of the environment as perceived by the agent. Parallel composition of world variables is slightly different from parallel composition of the other variables, since their signals are summed. The theory is illustrated through a simple example of agents systems.

  3. Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

    2013-10-01

    Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Linear summation of outputs in a balanced network model of motor cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capaday, Charles; van Vreeswijk, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Given the non-linearities of the neural circuitry's elements, we would expect cortical circuits to respond non-linearly when activated. Surprisingly, when two points in the motor cortex are activated simultaneously, the EMG responses are the linear sum of the responses evoked by each of the points activated separately. Additionally, the corticospinal transfer function is close to linear, implying that the synaptic interactions in motor cortex must be effectively linear. To account for this, here we develop a model of motor cortex composed of multiple interconnected points, each comprised of reciprocally connected excitatory and inhibitory neurons. We show how non-linearities in neuronal transfer functions are eschewed by strong synaptic interactions within each point. Consequently, the simultaneous activation of multiple points results in a linear summation of their respective outputs. We also consider the effects of reduction of inhibition at a cortical point when one or more surrounding points are active. The network response in this condition is linear over an approximately two- to three-fold decrease of inhibitory feedback strength. This result supports the idea that focal disinhibition allows linear coupling of motor cortical points to generate movement related muscle activation patterns; albeit with a limitation on gain control. The model also explains why neural activity does not spread as far out as the axonal connectivity allows, whilst also explaining why distant cortical points can be, nonetheless, functionally coupled by focal disinhibition. Finally, we discuss the advantages that linear interactions at the cortical level afford to motor command synthesis.

  5. Three-scale input-output modeling for urban economy: Carbon emission by Beijing 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, G. Q.; Guo, Shan; Shao, Ling; Li, J. S.; Chen, Zhan-Ming

    2013-09-01

    For urban economies, an ecological endowment embodiment analysis has to be supported by endowment intensities at both the international and domestic scales to reflect the international and domestic imports of increasing importance. A three-scale input-output modeling for an urban economy to give nine categories of embodiment fluxes is presented in this paper by a case study on the carbon dioxide emissions by the Beijing economy in 2007, based on the carbon intensities for the average world and national economies. The total direct emissions are estimated at 1.03E+08 t, in which 91.61% is energy-related emissions. By the modeling, emissions embodied in fixed capital formation amount to 7.20E+07 t, emissions embodied in household consumption are 1.58 times those in government consumption, and emissions in gross capital formation are 14.93% more than those in gross consumption. As a net exporter of carbon emissions, Beijing exports 5.21E+08 t carbon embodied in foreign imported commodities and 1.06E+08 t in domestic imported commodities, while emissions embodied in foreign and domestic imported commodities are 3.34E+07 and 1.75E+08 t respectively. The algorithm presented in this study is applicable to the embodiment analysis of other environmental resources for regional economies characteristic of multi-scales.

  6. Finding the Root Causes of Statistical Inconsistency in Community Earth System Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milroy, D.; Hammerling, D.; Baker, A. H.

    2017-12-01

    Baker et al (2015) developed the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) to provide a metric for software quality assurance by determining statistical consistency between an ensemble of CESM outputs and new test runs. The test has proved useful for detecting statistical difference caused by compiler bugs and errors in physical modules. However, detection is only the necessary first step in finding the causes of statistical difference. The CESM is a vastly complex model comprised of millions of lines of code which is developed and maintained by a large community of software engineers and scientists. Any root cause analysis is correspondingly challenging. We propose a new capability for CESM-ECT: identifying the sections of code that cause statistical distinguishability. The first step is to discover CESM variables that cause CESM-ECT to classify new runs as statistically distinct, which we achieve via Randomized Logistic Regression. Next we use a tool developed to identify CESM components that define or compute the variables found in the first step. Finally, we employ the application Kernel GENerator (KGEN) created in Kim et al (2016) to detect fine-grained floating point differences. We demonstrate an example of the procedure and advance a plan to automate this process in our future work.

  7. Influence of urban surface properties and rainfall characteristics on surface water flood outputs - insights from a physical modelling environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng

    2017-04-01

    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when excess rainfall from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flood events pose a major hazard to urban regions across the world, with nearly two thirds of flood damages in the UK being caused by surface water flood events. The perceived risk of surface water flooding appears to have increased in recent years due to several factors, including (i) precipitation increases associated with climatic change and variability; (ii) population growth meaning more people are occupying flood risk areas, and; (iii) land-use changes. Because urban areas are often associated with a high proportion of impermeable land-uses (e.g. tarmacked or paved surfaces and buildings) and a reduced coverage of vegetated, permeable surfaces, urban surface water flood risk during high intensity precipitation events is often exacerbated. To investigate the influence of urbanisation and terrestrial factors on surface water flood outputs, rainfall intensity, catchment slope, permeability, building density/layout scenarios were designed within a novel, 9m2 physical modelling environment. The two-tiered physical model used consists of (i) a low-cost, nozzle-type rainfall simulator component which is able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed rainfall events of varying duration and intensity, and; (ii) a reconfigurable, modular plot surface. All experiments within the physical modelling environment were subjected to a spatiotemporally uniform 45-minute simulated rainfall event, while terrestrial factors on the physical model plot surface were altered systematically to investigate their hydrological response on modelled outflow and depth profiles. Results from the closed, controlled physical modelling experiments suggest that meteorological factors, such as the duration and intensity of simulated rainfall, and terrestrial factors, such as model slope

  8. Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are

  9. SISTEM KONTROL OTOMATIK DENGAN MODEL SINGLE-INPUT-DUAL-OUTPUT DALAM KENDALI EFISIENSI UMUR-PEMAKAIAN INSTRUMEN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.N.M.P. Simamora

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Efficiency condition occurs when the value of the used outputs compared to the resource total that has been used almost close to the value 1 (absolute environment. An instrument to achieve efficiency if the power output level has decreased significantly in the life of the instrument used, if it compared to the previous condition, when the instrument is not equipped with additional systems (or proposed model improvement. Even more effective if the inputs model that are used in unison to achieve a homogeneous output. On this research has been designed and implemented the automatic control system for models of single input-dual-output, wherein the sampling instruments used are lamp and fan. Source voltage used is AC (alternate-current and tested using quantitative research methods and instrumentation (with measuring instruments are observed. The results obtained demonstrate the efficiency of the instrument experienced a significant current model of single-input-dual-output applied separately instrument trials such as lamp and fan when it compared to the condition or state before. And the result show that the design has been built, can also run well.

  10. A Hierarchical multi-input and output Bi-GRU Model for Sentiment Analysis on Customer Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liujie; Zhou, Yanquan; Duan, Xiuyu; Chen, Ruiqi

    2018-03-01

    Multi-label sentiment classification on customer reviews is a practical challenging task in Natural Language Processing. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical multi-input and output model based bi-directional recurrent neural network, which both considers the semantic and lexical information of emotional expression. Our model applies two independent Bi-GRU layer to generate part of speech and sentence representation. Then the lexical information is considered via attention over output of softmax activation on part of speech representation. In addition, we combine probability of auxiliary labels as feature with hidden layer to capturing crucial correlation between output labels. The experimental result shows that our model is computationally efficient and achieves breakthrough improvements on customer reviews dataset.

  11. Beyond R 0: Demographic Models for Variability of Lifetime Reproductive Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caswell, Hal

    2011-01-01

    The net reproductive rate measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants). PMID:21738586

  12. Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahmann, Andrea N.; Vincent, Claire Louise; Peña, Alfredo

    2015-01-01

    setup parameters. The results of the year-long sensitivity simulations show that the long-term mean wind speed simulated by the WRF model offshore in the region studied is quite insensitive to the global reanalysis, the number of vertical levels, and the horizontal resolution of the sea surface...... temperature used as lower boundary conditions. Also, the strength and form (grid vs spectral) of the nudging is quite irrelevant for the mean wind speed at 100 m. Large sensitivity is found to the choice of boundary layer parametrization, and to the length of the period that is discarded as spin-up to produce...

  13. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  14. Catchment virtual observatory for sharing flow and transport models outputs: using residence time distribution to compare contrasting catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Zahra; Rousseau-Gueutin, Pauline; Kolbe, Tamara; Abbott, Ben; Marcais, Jean; Peiffer, Stefan; Frei, Sven; Bishop, Kevin; Le Henaff, Geneviève; Squividant, Hervé; Pichelin, Pascal; Pinay, Gilles; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald

    2017-04-01

    The distribution of groundwater residence time in a catchment provides synoptic information about catchment functioning (e.g. nutrient retention and removal, hydrograph flashiness). In contrast with interpreted model results, which are often not directly comparable between studies, residence time distribution is a general output that could be used to compare catchment behaviors and test hypotheses about landscape controls on catchment functioning. In this goal, we created a virtual observatory platform called Catchment Virtual Observatory for Sharing Flow and Transport Model Outputs (COnSOrT). The main goal of COnSOrT is to collect outputs from calibrated groundwater models from a wide range of environments. By comparing a wide variety of catchments from different climatic, topographic and hydrogeological contexts, we expect to enhance understanding of catchment connectivity, resilience to anthropogenic disturbance, and overall functioning. The web-based observatory will also provide software tools to analyze model outputs. The observatory will enable modelers to test their models in a wide range of catchment environments to evaluate the generality of their findings and robustness of their post-processing methods. Researchers with calibrated numerical models can benefit from observatory by using the post-processing methods to implement a new approach to analyzing their data. Field scientists interested in contributing data could invite modelers associated with the observatory to test their models against observed catchment behavior. COnSOrT will allow meta-analyses with community contributions to generate new understanding and identify promising pathways forward to moving beyond single catchment ecohydrology. Keywords: Residence time distribution, Models outputs, Catchment hydrology, Inter-catchment comparison

  15. Selection Input Output by Restriction Using DEA Models Based on a Fuzzy Delphi Approach and Expert Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsad, Roslah; Nasir Abdullah, Mohammad; Alias, Suriana; Isa, Zaidi

    2017-09-01

    Stock evaluation has always been an interesting problem for investors. In this paper, a comparison regarding the efficiency stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia were made through the application of estimation method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). One of the interesting research subjects in DEA is the selection of appropriate input and output parameter. In this study, DEA was used to measure efficiency of stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia in terms of the financial ratio to evaluate performance of stocks. Based on previous studies and Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), the most important financial ratio was selected. The results indicated that return on equity, return on assets, net profit margin, operating profit margin, earnings per share, price to earnings and debt to equity were the most important ratios. Using expert information, all the parameter were clarified as inputs and outputs. The main objectives were to identify most critical financial ratio, clarify them based on expert information and compute the relative efficiency scores of stocks as well as rank them in the construction industry and material completely. The methods of analysis using Alirezaee and Afsharian’s model were employed in this study, where the originality of Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) with the assumption of Constant Return to Scale (CSR) still holds. This method of ranking relative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) was value-added by the Balance Index. The interested data was made for year 2015 and the population of the research includes accepted companies in stock markets in the construction industry and material (63 companies). According to the ranking, the proposed model can rank completely for 63 companies using selected financial ratio.

  16. Modeling DPOAE input/output function compression: comparisons with hearing thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhagat, Shaum P

    2014-09-01

    Basilar membrane input/output (I/O) functions in mammalian animal models are characterized by linear and compressed segments when measured near the location corresponding to the characteristic frequency. A method of studying basilar membrane compression indirectly in humans involves measuring distortion-product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE) I/O functions. Previous research has linked compression estimates from behavioral growth-of-masking functions to hearing thresholds. The aim of this study was to compare compression estimates from DPOAE I/O functions and hearing thresholds at 1 and 2 kHz. A prospective correlational research design was performed. The relationship between DPOAE I/O function compression estimates and hearing thresholds was evaluated with Pearson product-moment correlations. Normal-hearing adults (n = 16) aged 22-42 yr were recruited. DPOAE I/O functions (L₂ = 45-70 dB SPL) and two-interval forced-choice hearing thresholds were measured in normal-hearing adults. A three-segment linear regression model applied to DPOAE I/O functions supplied estimates of compression thresholds, defined as breakpoints between linear and compressed segments and the slopes of the compressed segments. Pearson product-moment correlations between DPOAE compression estimates and hearing thresholds were evaluated. A high correlation between DPOAE compression thresholds and hearing thresholds was observed at 2 kHz, but not at 1 kHz. Compression slopes also correlated highly with hearing thresholds only at 2 kHz. The derivation of cochlear compression estimates from DPOAE I/O functions provides a means to characterize basilar membrane mechanics in humans and elucidates the role of compression in tone detection in the 1-2 kHz frequency range. American Academy of Audiology.

  17. Single-Phase Bundle Flows Including Macroscopic Turbulence Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seung Jun; Yoon, Han Young [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Seok Jong; Cho, Hyoung Kyu [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    To deal with various thermal hydraulic phenomena due to rapid change of fluid properties when an accident happens, securing mechanistic approaches as much as possible may reduce the uncertainty arising from improper applications of the experimental models. In this study, the turbulence mixing model, which is well defined in the subchannel analysis code such as VIPRE, COBRA, and MATRA by experiments, is replaced by a macroscopic k-e turbulence model, which represents the aspect of mathematical derivation. The performance of CUPID with macroscopic turbulence model is validated against several bundle experiments: CNEN 4x4 and PNL 7x7 rod bundle tests. In this study, the macroscopic k-e model has been validated for the application to subchannel analysis. It has been implemented in the CUPID code and validated against CNEN 4x4 and PNL 7x7 rod bundle tests. The results showed that the macroscopic k-e turbulence model can estimate the experiments properly.

  18. Implementation of a Model Output Statistics based on meteorological variable screening for short‐term wind power forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranaboldo, Matteo; Giebel, Gregor; Codina, Bernat

    2013-01-01

    A combination of physical and statistical treatments to post‐process numerical weather predictions (NWP) outputs is needed for successful short‐term wind power forecasts. One of the most promising and effective approaches for statistical treatment is the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique....... In this study, a MOS based on multiple linear regression is proposed: the model screens the most relevant NWP forecast variables and selects the best predictors to fit a regression equation that minimizes the forecast errors, utilizing wind farm power output measurements as input. The performance of the method...... is evaluated in two wind farms, located in different topographical areas and with different NWP grid spacing. Because of the high seasonal variability of NWP forecasts, it was considered appropriate to implement monthly stratified MOS. In both wind farms, the first predictors were always wind speeds (at...

  19. Study of cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts with nonlinear output frequency response functions based on NARMAX modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Honglan; Mao, Hanying; Mao, Hanling; Zheng, Weixue; Huang, Zhenfeng; Li, Xinxin; Wang, Xianghong

    2017-12-01

    Cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts plays a key role in the process of remanufacturing engineering and is related to the service safety of the remanufactured parts. In light of the nonlinear properties of used parts caused by cumulative fatigue damage, the based nonlinear output frequency response functions detection approach offers a breakthrough to solve this key problem. First, a modified PSO-adaptive lasso algorithm is introduced to improve the accuracy of the NARMAX model under impulse hammer excitation, and then, an effective new algorithm is derived to estimate the nonlinear output frequency response functions under rectangular pulse excitation, and a based nonlinear output frequency response functions index is introduced to detect the cumulative fatigue damage in used parts. Then, a novel damage detection approach that integrates the NARMAX model and the rectangular pulse is proposed for nonlinear output frequency response functions identification and cumulative fatigue damage detection of used parts. Finally, experimental studies of fatigued plate specimens and used connecting rod parts are conducted to verify the validity of the novel approach. The obtained results reveal that the new approach can detect cumulative fatigue damages of used parts effectively and efficiently and that the various values of the based nonlinear output frequency response functions index can be used to detect the different fatigue damages or working time. Since the proposed new approach can extract nonlinear properties of systems by only a single excitation of the inspected system, it shows great promise for use in remanufacturing engineering applications.

  20. Global atmospheric model for mercury including oxidation by bromine atoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Holmes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Global models of atmospheric mercury generally assume that gas-phase OH and ozone are the main oxidants converting Hg0 to HgII and thus driving mercury deposition to ecosystems. However, thermodynamic considerations argue against the importance of these reactions. We demonstrate here the viability of atomic bromine (Br as an alternative Hg0 oxidant. We conduct a global 3-D simulation with the GEOS-Chem model assuming gas-phase Br to be the sole Hg0 oxidant (Hg + Br model and compare to the previous version of the model with OH and ozone as the sole oxidants (Hg + OH/O3 model. We specify global 3-D Br concentration fields based on our best understanding of tropospheric and stratospheric Br chemistry. In both the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models, we add an aqueous photochemical reduction of HgII in cloud to impose a tropospheric lifetime for mercury of 6.5 months against deposition, as needed to reconcile observed total gaseous mercury (TGM concentrations with current estimates of anthropogenic emissions. This added reduction would not be necessary in the Hg + Br model if we adjusted the Br oxidation kinetics downward within their range of uncertainty. We find that the Hg + Br and Hg + OH/O3 models are equally capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of TGM and its seasonal cycle at northern mid-latitudes. The Hg + Br model shows a steeper decline of TGM concentrations from the tropics to southern mid-latitudes. Only the Hg + Br model can reproduce the springtime depletion and summer rebound of TGM observed at polar sites; the snowpack component of GEOS-Chem suggests that 40% of HgII deposited to snow in the Arctic is transferred to the ocean and land reservoirs, amounting to a net deposition flux to the Arctic of 60 Mg a−1. Summertime events of depleted Hg0 at Antarctic sites due to subsidence are much better simulated by

  1. Double-gate junctionless transistor model including short-channel effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paz, B C; Pavanello, M A; Ávila-Herrera, F; Cerdeira, A

    2015-01-01

    This work presents a physically based model for double-gate junctionless transistors (JLTs), continuous in all operation regimes. To describe short-channel transistors, short-channel effects (SCEs), such as increase of the channel potential due to drain bias, carrier velocity saturation and mobility degradation due to vertical and longitudinal electric fields, are included in a previous model developed for long-channel double-gate JLTs. To validate the model, an analysis is made by using three-dimensional numerical simulations performed in a Sentaurus Device Simulator from Synopsys. Different doping concentrations, channel widths and channel lengths are considered in this work. Besides that, the series resistance influence is numerically included and validated for a wide range of source and drain extensions. In order to check if the SCEs are appropriately described, besides drain current, transconductance and output conductance characteristics, the following parameters are analyzed to demonstrate the good agreement between model and simulation and the SCEs occurrence in this technology: threshold voltage (V TH ), subthreshold slope (S) and drain induced barrier lowering. (paper)

  2. Thematic report: Macroeconomic models including specifically social and environmental aspects

    OpenAIRE

    Kratena, Kurt

    2015-01-01

    WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 8, 30 pages A significant reduction of the global environmental consequences of European consumption and production activities are the main objective of the policy simulations carried out in this paper. For this purpose three different modelling approaches have been chosen. Two macroeconomic models following the philosophy of consistent stock-flow accounting for the main institutional sectors (households, firms, banks, central bank and government) are used for...

  3. Increasing and decreasing motor and cognitive output: a model of general action and inaction goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albarracín, Dolores; Handley, Ian M; Noguchi, Kenji; McCulloch, Kathleen C; Li, Hong; Leeper, Joshua; Brown, Rick D; Earl, Allison; Hart, William P

    2008-09-01

    General action and inaction goals can influence the amount of motor or cognitive output irrespective of the type of behavior in question, with the same stimuli producing trivial and important motor and cognitive manifestations normally viewed as parts of different systems. A series of experiments examined the effects of instilling general action and inaction goals using word primes, such as "action" and "rest." The first 5 experiments showed that the same stimuli influenced motor output, such as doodling on a piece of paper and eating, as well as cognitive output, such as recall and problem solving. The last 2 experiments supported the prediction that these diverse effects can result from the instigation of general action and inaction goals. Specifically, these last 2 studies confirmed that participants were motivated to achieve active or inactive states and that attaining them decreased the effects of the primes on behavior.

  4. Improving weather predictability by including land-surface model parameter uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    The land surface forms an important component of Earth system models and interacts nonlinearly with other parts such as ocean and atmosphere. To capture the complex and heterogenous hydrology of the land surface, land surface models include a large number of parameters impacting the coupling to other components of the Earth system model. Focusing on ECMWF's land-surface model HTESSEL we present in this study a comprehensive parameter sensitivity evaluation using multiple observational datasets in Europe. We select 6 poorly constrained effective parameters (surface runoff effective depth, skin conductivity, minimum stomatal resistance, maximum interception, soil moisture stress function shape, total soil depth) and explore their sensitivity to model outputs such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff using uncoupled simulations and coupled seasonal forecasts. Additionally we investigate the possibility to construct ensembles from the multiple land surface parameters. In the uncoupled runs we find that minimum stomatal resistance and total soil depth have the most influence on model performance. Forecast skill scores are moreover sensitive to the same parameters as HTESSEL performance in the uncoupled analysis. We demonstrate the robustness of our findings by comparing multiple best performing parameter sets and multiple randomly chosen parameter sets. We find better temperature and precipitation forecast skill with the best-performing parameter perturbations demonstrating representativeness of model performance across uncoupled (and hence less computationally demanding) and coupled settings. Finally, we construct ensemble forecasts from ensemble members derived with different best-performing parameterizations of HTESSEL. This incorporation of parameter uncertainty in the ensemble generation yields an increase in forecast skill, even beyond the skill of the default system. Orth, R., E. Dutra, and F. Pappenberger, 2016: Improving weather predictability by

  5. Identifying Clusters with Mixture Models that Include Radial Velocity Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czarnatowicz, Alexis; Ybarra, Jason E.

    2018-01-01

    The study of stellar clusters plays an integral role in the study of star formation. We present a cluster mixture model that considers radial velocity data in addition to spatial data. Maximum likelihood estimation through the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is used for parameter estimation. Our mixture model analysis can be used to distinguish adjacent or overlapping clusters, and estimate properties for each cluster.Work supported by awards from the Virginia Foundation for Independent Colleges (VFIC) Undergraduate Science Research Fellowship and The Research Experience @Bridgewater (TREB).

  6. Coordination between Understanding Historic Buildings and BIM Modelling: A 3D-Output Oriented and typological Data Capture Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, K.; Li, S. J.; Liu, Y.; Wang, W.; Wu, C.

    2015-08-01

    At the present, in trend of shifting the old 2D-output oriented survey to a new 3D-output oriented survey based on BIM technology, the corresponding working methods and workflow for data capture, process, representation, etc. have to be changed.Based on case study of two buildings in the Summer Palace of Beijing, and Jiayuguan Pass at the west end of the Great Wall (both World Heritage sites), this paper puts forward a "structure-and-type method" by means of typological method used in archaeology, Revit family system, and the tectonic logic of building to realize a good coordination between understanding of historic buildings and BIM modelling.

  7. Unsteady panel method for complex configurations including wake modeling

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Zyl, Lourens H

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The calculation of unsteady air loads is an essential step in any aeroelastic analysis. The subsonic doublet lattice method (DLM) is used extensively for this purpose due to its simplicity and reliability. The body models available with the popular...

  8. Modeling and analysis of dual-output piezoelectric transformer operating at the thickness-shear vibration mode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinlong; Hu, Junhui; Tseng, King-Jet; Kai, Chen Shu; Siong, Goh Chee

    2006-03-01

    In our previous study, the multioutput piezoelectric transformer operating at the thickness-shear vibration mode was proposed and experimentally investigated. By designing a new construction of support and lead wire connection, a power density of 52.7 W/cm3 and a total output power of 169.8 W were achieved at a temperature rise less than 20 degrees C. In this work, a theoretical model was developed for the dual-output piezoelectric transformer operating at the thickness-shear vibration mode. The equivalent circuit parameters of the piezoelectric transformer were derived. Based on this, the impedance characteristics, equivalent inductance, capacitance ratio, voltage gain, and efficiency of the piezoelectric transformer were calculated. The theoretical results were verified by experimental data. Furthermore, the effect of the transformer size on the voltage gain, efficiency, output power and power density, and the effect of the load of one output on the voltage gain of another output were analyzed. Some useful guidelines were achieved by these analyses.

  9. The input and output management of solid waste using DEA models: A case study at Jengka, Pahang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Siti Rosiah; Ghazali, Nur Fadzrina Mohd; Mohd, Ainun Hafizah

    2017-08-01

    Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as a tool for obtaining performance indices has been used extensively in several of organizations sector. The ways to improve the efficiency of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is impractical because some of inputs and outputs are uncontrollable and in certain situation its produce weak efficiency which often reflect the impact for operating environment. Based on the data from Alam Flora Sdn. Bhd Jengka, the researcher wants to determine the efficiency of solid waste management (SWM) in town Jengka Pahang using CCRI and CCRO model of DEA and duality formulation with vector average input and output. Three input variables (length collection in meter, frequency time per week in hour and number of garbage truck) and 2 outputs variables (frequency collection and the total solid waste collection in kilogram) are analyzed. As a conclusion, it shows only three roads from 23 roads are efficient that achieve efficiency score 1. Meanwhile, 20 other roads are in an inefficient management.

  10. A thermal lens model including the Soret effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabrera, Humberto; Sira, Eloy; Rahn, Kareem; Garcia-Sucre, Maximo

    2009-01-01

    In this letter we generalize the thermal lens model to account for the Soret effect in binary liquid mixtures. This formalism permits the precise determination of the Soret coefficient in a steady-state situation. The theory is experimentally verified using the measured values in the ethanol/water mixtures. The time evolution of the Soret signal has been used to derive mass-diffusion times from which mass-diffusion coefficients were calculated. (Author)

  11. Including lateral interactions into microkinetic models of catalytic reactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hellman, Anders; Honkala, Johanna Karoliina

    2007-01-01

    In many catalytic reactions lateral interactions between adsorbates are believed to have a strong influence on the reaction rates. We apply a microkinetic model to explore the effect of lateral interactions and how to efficiently take them into account in a simple catalytic reaction. Three differ...... different approximations are investigated: site, mean-field, and quasichemical approximations. The obtained results are compared to accurate Monte Carlo numbers. In the end, we apply the approximations to a real catalytic reaction, namely, ammonia synthesis....

  12. A stochastic model of gene expression including splicing events

    OpenAIRE

    Penim, Flávia Alexandra Mendes

    2014-01-01

    Tese de mestrado, Bioinformática e Biologia Computacional, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014 Proteins carry out the great majority of the catalytic and structural work within an organism. The RNA templates used in their synthesis determines their identity, and this is dictated by which genes are transcribed. Therefore, gene expression is the fundamental determinant of an organism’s nature. The main objective of this thesis was to develop a stochastic computational model a...

  13. Boolean modeling of neural systems with point-process inputs and outputs. Part I: theory and simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; Zanos, Theodoros P; Berger, Theodore W

    2009-08-01

    This paper presents a new modeling approach for neural systems with point-process (spike) inputs and outputs that utilizes Boolean operators (i.e. modulo 2 multiplication and addition that correspond to the logical AND and OR operations respectively, as well as the AND_NOT logical operation representing inhibitory effects). The form of the employed mathematical models is akin to a "Boolean-Volterra" model that contains the product terms of all relevant input lags in a hierarchical order, where terms of order higher than first represent nonlinear interactions among the various lagged values of each input point-process or among lagged values of various inputs (if multiple inputs exist) as they reflect on the output. The coefficients of this Boolean-Volterra model are also binary variables that indicate the presence or absence of the respective term in each specific model/system. Simulations are used to explore the properties of such models and the feasibility of their accurate estimation from short data-records in the presence of noise (i.e. spurious spikes). The results demonstrate the feasibility of obtaining reliable estimates of such models, with excitatory and inhibitory terms, in the presence of considerable noise (spurious spikes) in the outputs and/or the inputs in a computationally efficient manner. A pilot application of this approach to an actual neural system is presented in the companion paper (Part II).

  14. Parton recombination model including resonance production. RL-78-040

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, R.G.; Hwa, R.C.; Matsuda, S.

    1978-05-01

    Possible effects of resonance production on the meson inclusive distribution in the fragmentation region are investigated in the framework of the parton recombination model. From a detailed study of the data on vector-meson production, a reliable ratio of the vector-to-pseudoscalar rates is determined. Then the influence of the decay of the vector mesons on the pseudoscalar spectrum is examined, and the effect found to be no more than 25% for x > 0.5. The normalization of the non-strange antiquark distributions are still higher than those in a quiescent proton. The agreement between the calculated results and data remain very good. 36 references

  15. Extending PSA models including ageing and asset management - 15291

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martorell, S.; Marton, I.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new approach to Ageing Probabilistic Safety Assessment (APSA) modelling, which is intended to be used to support risk-informed decisions on the effectiveness of maintenance management programs and technical specification requirements of critical equipment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) within the framework of the Risk Informed Decision Making according to R.G. 1.174 principles. This approach focuses on the incorporation of not only equipment ageing but also effectiveness of maintenance and efficiency of surveillance testing explicitly into APSA models and data. This methodology is applied to a motor-operated valve of the auxiliary feed water system (AFWS) of a PWR. This simple example of application focuses on a critical safety-related equipment of a NPP in order to evaluate the risk impact of considering different approaches to APSA and the combined effect of equipment ageing and maintenance and testing alternatives along NPP design life. The risk impact of several alternatives in maintenance strategy is discussed

  16. Percentile-Based ETCCDI Temperature Extremes Indices for CMIP5 Model Output: New Results through Semiparametric Quantile Regression Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Yang, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate extremes often manifest as rare events in terms of surface air temperature and precipitation with an annual reoccurrence period. In order to represent the manifold characteristics of climate extremes for monitoring and analysis, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) had worked out a set of 27 core indices based on daily temperature and precipitation data, describing extreme weather and climate events on an annual basis. The CLIMDEX project (http://www.climdex.org) had produced public domain datasets of such indices for data from a variety of sources, including output from global climate models (GCM) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the 27 ETCCDI indices, there are six percentile-based temperature extremes indices that may fall into two groups: exceedance rates (ER) (TN10p, TN90p, TX10p and TX90p) and durations (CSDI and WSDI). Percentiles must be estimated prior to the calculation of the indices, and could more or less be biased by the adopted algorithm. Such biases will in turn be propagated to the final results of indices. The CLIMDEX used an empirical quantile estimator combined with a bootstrap resampling procedure to reduce the inhomogeneity in the annual series of the ER indices. However, there are still some problems remained in the CLIMDEX datasets, namely the overestimated climate variability due to unaccounted autocorrelation in the daily temperature data, seasonally varying biases and inconsistency between algorithms applied to the ER indices and to the duration indices. We now present new results of the six indices through a semiparametric quantile regression approach for the CMIP5 model output. By using the base-period data as a whole and taking seasonality and autocorrelation into account, this approach successfully addressed the aforementioned issues and came out with consistent results. The new datasets cover the historical and three projected (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP

  17. A utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage: Theoretical model, experimental verification and energy storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangyi Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage is presented. Firstly, the harvester’s three theoretical models are presented, namely the static model, the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model. By analyzing the influence of the mass ratio of the mass block to the beam on output characteristics of the harvester, we compare the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model and then define their applicable ranges. Secondly, simulation and experiments are done to verify the models, using the harvester with PZT-5H piezoelectric material, which are proved to be consistent with each other. The experimental results show that the output open-circuit voltage and the output power can reach up to 86.36V and 27.5mW respectively. The experiments are conducted when this harvester system is excited by the first modal frequency (58.90Hz with the acceleration 10m/s2. In this low frequency vibration case, it is easy to capture the energy in the daily environment. In addition, LTC 3588-1 chip (Linear Technology Corporation is used as the medium energy circuit to transfer charges from the PZT-5H electrode to the 0.22F 5V super capacitor and ML621 rechargeable button battery. For this super-capacitor, it takes about 100min for the capacitor voltage to rise from 0V to 3.6V. For this button battery, it takes about 200min to increase the battery voltage from 2.5V to 3.48V.

  18. Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fader, M.; von Bloh, W.; Shi, S.; Bondeau, A.; Cramer, W.

    2015-11-01

    In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall, direct degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the eastern and southern shores, will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive agro-ecosystem and hydrological model. This study presents the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land - LPJmL): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. With the development presented in this study, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture with a comprehensive representation of ecophysiological processes for all vegetation types (natural and agricultural) and in a consistent framework that produces estimates of carbon, agricultural and hydrological variables for the entire Mediterranean basin. This development paves the way for further model extensions aiming at the representation of alternative agro-ecosystems (e.g. agroforestry), and opens the door for a large number of applications in the Mediterranean region, for example assessments of the consequences of land use transitions, the influence of management practices and climate change impacts.

  19. A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xiuli; Moreno, Blanca; García, Ana Salomé

    2016-01-01

    A combined forecast of Grey forecasting method and neural network back propagation model, which is called Grey Neural Network and Input-Output Combined Forecasting Model (GNF-IO model), is proposed. A real case of energy consumption forecast is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The GNF-IO model predicts coal, crude oil, natural gas, renewable and nuclear primary energy consumption volumes by Spain's 36 sub-sectors from 2010 to 2015 according to three different GDP growth scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). Model test shows that the proposed model has higher simulation and forecasting accuracy on energy consumption than Grey models separately and other combination methods. The forecasts indicate that the primary energies as coal, crude oil and natural gas will represent on average the 83.6% percent of the total of primary energy consumption, raising concerns about security of supply and energy cost and adding risk for some industrial production processes. Thus, Spanish industry must speed up its transition to an energy-efficiency economy, achieving a cost reduction and increase in the level of self-supply. - Highlights: • Forecasting System Using Grey Models combined with Input-Output Models is proposed. • Primary energy consumption in Spain is used to validate the model. • The grey-based combined model has good forecasting performance. • Natural gas will represent the majority of the total of primary energy consumption. • Concerns about security of supply, energy cost and industry competitiveness are raised.

  20. Comparison of squashing and self-consistent input-output models of quantum feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peřinová, V.; Lukš, A.; Křepelka, J.

    2018-03-01

    The paper (Yanagisawa and Hope, 2010) opens with two ways of analysis of a measurement-based quantum feedback. The scheme of the feedback includes, along with the homodyne detector, a modulator and a beamsplitter, which does not enable one to extract the nonclassical field. In the present scheme, the beamsplitter is replaced by the quantum noise evader, which makes it possible to extract the nonclassical field. We re-approach the comparison of two models related to the same scheme. The first one admits that in the feedback loop between the photon annihilation and creation operators, unusual commutation relations hold. As a consequence, in the feedback loop, squashing of the light occurs. In the second one, the description arrives at the feedback loop via unitary transformations. But it is obvious that the unitary transformation which describes the modulator changes even the annihilation operator of the mode which passes by the modulator which is not natural. The first model could be called "squashing model" and the second one could be named "self-consistent model". Although the predictions of the two models differ only a little and both the ways of analysis have their advantages, they have also their drawbacks and further investigation is possible.

  1. Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory Simulator Output Files for Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    DD-MM-YYYY) January 2018 2. REPORT TYPE Technical Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 1 November 2017–12 December 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE... value of the method for several GTRAJ output files. The programs were written in Python (version 3.5) and would require some modification for...table), and mean and median values for each MET data source (lower table). Azimuth is in mils and % refers to percent radial distance (aka % range

  2. Does the DHET research output subsidy model penalise high-citation publication? A case study

    OpenAIRE

    Yolande X. Harley; Esmari Huysamen; Carlette Hlungwani; Tania S. Douglas

    2016-01-01

    South African universities are awarded annual subsidy from the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) based on their research publication output. Journal article subsidy is based on the number of research publications in DHET-approved journals as well as the proportional contribution of authors from the university. Co-authorship with other institutions reduces the subsidy received by a university, which may be a disincentive to collaboration. Inter-institutional collaboration may ...

  3. AirSWOT observations versus hydrodynamic model outputs of water surface elevation and slope in a multichannel river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altenau, Elizabeth H.; Pavelsky, Tamlin M.; Moller, Delwyn; Lion, Christine; Pitcher, Lincoln H.; Allen, George H.; Bates, Paul D.; Calmant, Stéphane; Durand, Michael; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Smith, Laurence C.

    2017-04-01

    Anabranching rivers make up a large proportion of the world's major rivers, but quantifying their flow dynamics is challenging due to their complex morphologies. Traditional in situ measurements of water levels collected at gauge stations cannot capture out of bank flows and are limited to defined cross sections, which presents an incomplete picture of water fluctuations in multichannel systems. Similarly, current remotely sensed measurements of water surface elevations (WSEs) and slopes are constrained by resolutions and accuracies that limit the visibility of surface waters at global scales. Here, we present new measurements of river WSE and slope along the Tanana River, AK, acquired from AirSWOT, an airborne analogue to the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. Additionally, we compare the AirSWOT observations to hydrodynamic model outputs of WSE and slope simulated across the same study area. Results indicate AirSWOT errors are significantly lower than model outputs. When compared to field measurements, RMSE for AirSWOT measurements of WSEs is 9.0 cm when averaged over 1 km squared areas and 1.0 cm/km for slopes along 10 km reaches. Also, AirSWOT can accurately reproduce the spatial variations in slope critical for characterizing reach-scale hydraulics, while model outputs of spatial variations in slope are very poor. Combining AirSWOT and future SWOT measurements with hydrodynamic models can result in major improvements in model simulations at local to global scales. Scientists can use AirSWOT measurements to constrain model parameters over long reach distances, improve understanding of the physical processes controlling the spatial distribution of model parameters, and validate models' abilities to reproduce spatial variations in slope. Additionally, AirSWOT and SWOT measurements can be assimilated into lower-complexity models to try and approach the accuracies achieved by higher-complexity models.

  4. Linking sediment fingerprinting and modeling outputs for a Spanish Pyrenean river catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazón, Leticia; Latorre, Borja; Gaspar, Leticia; Blake, Williams H.; Smith, Hugh G.; Navas, Ana

    2015-04-01

    Indirect techniques to study fine sediment redistribution in river catchments could provide unique and diverse information, which, when combined become a powerful tool to address catchment management problems. Such combinations could solve limitations of individual techniques and provide different lines of information to address a particular problem. The Barasona reservoir has suffered from siltation since its construction, with the loss of over one third of its storage volume in around 30 study years (period 1972-1996). Information on sediment production from tributary catchments for the reservoir is required to develop management plans for maintaining reservoir sustainability. Large spatial variability in sediment delivery was found in previous studies in the Barasona catchment and the major sediment sources identified included badlands developed in the middle part of the catchment and the agricultural fields in its lower part. From the diverse range of indirect techniques, fingerprinting sediment sources and computer models could be linked to obtain a more holistic view of the processes related to sediment redistribution in the Barasona river catchment (1509 km2, Central Spanish Pyrenees), which comprises agricultural and forest land uses. In the present study, the results from a fingerprinting procedure and the SWAT model were compared and combined to improve the knowledge of land use sediment source contributions to the reservoir. Samples from the study catchment were used to define soil parameters for the model and for fingerprinting the land use sources. The fingerprinting approach provided information about relative contributions from land use sources to the superficial sediment samples taken from the reservoir infill. The calibration and validation of the model provided valuable information, for example on the timescale of sediment production from the different land uses within the catchment. Linking results from both techniques enabled us to achieve a

  5. Exergoeconomic performance optimization for a steady-flow endoreversible refrigeration model including six typical cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Lingen; Kan, Xuxian; Sun, Fengrui; Wu, Feng [College of Naval Architecture and Power, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China)

    2013-07-01

    The operation of a universal steady flow endoreversible refrigeration cycle model consisting of a constant thermal-capacity heating branch, two constant thermal-capacity cooling branches and two adiabatic branches is viewed as a production process with exergy as its output. The finite time exergoeconomic performance optimization of the refrigeration cycle is investigated by taking profit rate optimization criterion as the objective. The relations between the profit rate and the temperature ratio of working fluid, between the COP (coefficient of performance) and the temperature ratio of working fluid, as well as the optimal relation between profit rate and the COP of the cycle are derived. The focus of this paper is to search the compromised optimization between economics (profit rate) and the utilization factor (COP) for endoreversible refrigeration cycles, by searching the optimum COP at maximum profit, which is termed as the finite-time exergoeconomic performance bound. Moreover, performance analysis and optimization of the model are carried out in order to investigate the effect of cycle process on the performance of the cycles using numerical example. The results obtained herein include the performance characteristics of endoreversible Carnot, Diesel, Otto, Atkinson, Dual and Brayton refrigeration cycles.

  6. Interpretation of Landscape Scale SWAT Model Outputs in the Western Lake Erie Basin: Potential Implications for Conservation Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, M. V. V.; Behrman, K. D.; Atwood, J. D.; White, M. J.; Norfleet, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    There is substantial interest in understanding how conservation practices and agricultural management impact water quality, particularly phosphorus dynamics, in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB). In 2016, the US and Canada accepted total phosphorus (TP) load targets recommended by the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement Annex 4 Objectives and Targets Task Team; these were 6,000 MTA delivered to Lake Erie and 3,660 MTA delivered to WLEB. Outstanding challenges include development of metrics to determine achievement of these goals, establishment of sufficient monitoring capacity to assess progress, and identification of appropriate conservation practices to achieve the most cost-effective results. Process-based modeling can help inform decisions to address these challenges more quickly than can system observation. As part of the NRCS-led Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to predict impacts of conservation practice adoption reported by farmers on TP loss and load delivery dynamics in WLEB. SWAT results suggest that once the conservation practices in place in 2003-06 and 2012 are fully functional, TP loads delivered to WLEB will average 3,175 MTA and 3,084 MTA, respectively. In other words, SWAT predicts that currently adopted practices are sufficient to meet Annex 4 TP load targets. Yet, WLEB gauging stations show Annex 4 goals are unmet. There are several reasons the model predictions and current monitoring efforts are not in agreement: 1. SWAT assumes full functionality of simulated conservation practices; 2. SWAT does not simulate changing management over time, nor impacts of past management on legacy loads; 3. SWAT assumes WLEB hydrological system equilibrium under simulated management. The SWAT model runs used to construct the scenarios that informed the Annex 4 targets were similarly constrained by model assumptions. It takes time for a system to achieve equilibrium when management changes and it

  7. The assessment of different models to predict solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for Nis, Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pantic, Lana S.; Pavlović, Tomislav M.; Milosavljević, Dragana D.; Radonjic, Ivana S.; Radovic, Miodrag K.; Sazhko, Galina

    2016-01-01

    Five different models for calculating solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for sunny days with different solar radiation intensities and ambient temperatures are assessed in this paper. Thereafter, modeled values are compared to the experimentally obtained values for the horizontal solar module in Nis, Serbia. The criterion for determining the best model was based on the statistical analysis and the agreement between the calculated and the experimental values. The calculated values of solar module temperature are in good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones, with some variations over and under the measured values. The best agreement between calculated and experimentally obtained values was for summer months with high solar radiation intensity. The nonlinear model for calculating the output power is much better than the linear model and at the same time predicts better the total electrical energy generated by the solar module during the day. The nonlinear model for calculating the solar module efficiency predicts the efficiency higher than the STC (Standard Test Conditions) value of solar module efficiency for all conditions, while the linear model predicts the solar module efficiency very well. This paper provides a simple and efficient guideline to estimate relevant parameters of a monocrystalline silicon solar module under the moderate-continental climate conditions. - Highlights: • Linear model for solar module temperature gives accurate predictions for August. • The nonlinear model better predicts the solar module power than the linear model. • For calculating solar module power for Nis we propose the nonlinear model. • For calculating solar model efficiency for Nis we propose adoption of linear model. • The adopted models can be used for calculations throughout the year.

  8. Measuring the Technical Efficiency of Farms Producing Environmental Output: Parametric and Semiparametric Estimation of Multi-output Stochastic Ray Production Frontiers

    OpenAIRE

    Tomasz Gerard Czekaj

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the technical efficiency of Polish dairy farms producing environmental output using the stochastic ray function to model multi-output – multi-input technology. Two general models are considered. One which neglects the provision of environmental output and one which accounts for such output. Three different proxies of environmental output are discussed: the ratio of permanent grassland (including rough grazing) to total agricultural area, the total area of permanent gra...

  9. A neural network based computational model to predict the output power of different types of photovoltaic cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WenBo Xiao

    Full Text Available In this article, we introduced an artificial neural network (ANN based computational model to predict the output power of three types of photovoltaic cells, mono-crystalline (mono-, multi-crystalline (multi-, and amorphous (amor- crystalline. The prediction results are very close to the experimental data, and were also influenced by numbers of hidden neurons. The order of the solar generation power output influenced by the external conditions from smallest to biggest is: multi-, mono-, and amor- crystalline silicon cells. In addition, the dependences of power prediction on the number of hidden neurons were studied. For multi- and amorphous crystalline cell, three or four hidden layer units resulted in the high correlation coefficient and low MSEs. For mono-crystalline cell, the best results were achieved at the hidden layer unit of 8.

  10. Coordination between Understanding Historic Buildings and BIM Modelling: A 3D-Output Oriented and typological Data Capture Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available At the present, in trend of shifting the old 2D-output oriented survey to a new 3D-output oriented survey based on BIM technology, the corresponding working methods and workflow for data capture, process, representation, etc. have to be changed.Based on case study of two buildings in the Summer Palace of Beijing, and Jiayuguan Pass at the west end of the Great Wall (both World Heritage sites, this paper puts forward a “structure-and-type method” by means of typological method used in archaeology, Revit family system, and the tectonic logic of building to realize a good coordination between understanding of historic buildings and BIM modelling.

  11. Calculation and decomposition of indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption in China based on the input–output model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Qin; Peng Xizhe; Wu Kaiya

    2012-01-01

    Based on the input–output model and the comparable price input–output tables, the current paper investigates the indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption in China in 1992–2005, and examines the impacts on the emissions using the structural decomposition method. The results demonstrate that the rise of the residential consumption level played a dominant role in the growth of residential indirect emissions. The persistent decline of the carbon emission intensity of industrial sectors presented a significant negative effect on the emissions. The change in the intermediate demand of industrial sectors resulted in an overall positive effect, except in the initial years. The increase in population prompted the indirect emissions to a certain extent; however, population size is no longer the main reason for the growth of the emissions. The change in the consumption structure showed a weak positive effect, demonstrating the importance for China to control and slow down the increase in the emissions while in the process of optimizing the residential consumption structure. The results imply that the means for restructuring the economy and improving efficiency, rather than for lowering the consumption scale, should be adopted by China to achieve the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction. - Highlights: ► We build the input–output model of indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption. ► We calculate the indirect emissions using the comparable price input–output tables. ► We examine the impacts on the indirect emissions using the structural decomposition method. ► The change in the consumption structure showed a weak positive effect on the emissions. ► China's population size is no longer the main reason for the growth of the emissions.

  12. Current and future groundwater recharge in West Africa as estimated from a range of coupled climate model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoef, Anne; Cook, Peter; Black, Emily; Macdonald, David; Sorensen, James

    2017-04-01

    This research addresses the terrestrial water balance for West Africa. Emphasis is on the prediction of groundwater recharge and how this may change in the future, which has relevance to the management of surface and groundwater resources. The study was conducted as part of the BRAVE research project, "Building understanding of climate variability into planning of groundwater supplies from low storage aquifers in Africa - Second Phase", funded under the NERC/DFID/ESRC Programme, Unlocking the Potential of Groundwater for the Poor (UPGro). We used model output data of water balance components (precipitation, surface and subsurface run-off, evapotranspiration and soil moisture content) from ERA-Interim/ERA-LAND reanalysis, CMIP5, and high resolution model runs with HadGEM3 (UPSCALE; Mizielinski et al., 2014), for current and future time-periods. Water balance components varied widely between the different models; variation was particularly large for sub-surface runoff (defined as drainage from the bottom-most soil layer of each model). In-situ data for groundwater recharge obtained from the peer-reviewed literature were compared with the model outputs. Separate off-line model sensitivity studies with key land surface models were performed to gain understanding of the reasons behind the model differences. These analyses were centered on vegetation, and soil hydraulic parameters. The modelled current and future recharge time series that had the greatest degree of confidence were used to examine the spatiotemporal variability in groundwater storage. Finally, the implications for water supply planning were assessed. Mizielinski, M.S. et al., 2014. High-resolution global climate modelling: the UPSCALE project, a large-simulation campaign. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(4), pp.1629-1640.

  13. Site compare scripts and output

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Monthly site compare scripts and output used to generate the model/ob plots and statistics in the manuscript. The AQS hourly site compare output files are not...

  14. How the removal of energy subsidy affects general price in China: A study based on input–output model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Zhujun; Tan, Jijun

    2013-01-01

    In China, most energy prices are controlled by the government and are under-priced, which means energy subsidies existing. Reforming energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy price, energy use and CO 2 emission. This paper applies a price-gap approach to estimate China's fossil-fuel related subsidies with the consideration of the external cost. Results indicate that the magnitude of subsidies amounted to CNY 1214.24 billion in 2008, equivalent to 4.04% of GDP of that year. Subsidies for oil products are the largest, followed by subsidies for the coal and electricity. Furthermore, an input–output model is used to analyze the impacts of energy subsidies reform on different industries and general price indexes. The findings show that removal of energy subsidies will have significant impact on energy-intensive industry, and consequently push up the general price level, yet with a small variation. Removing oil products subsidies will have the largest impact, followed by electricity, coal and natural gas. However, no matter which energy price increases, PPI is always the most affected, then GDP deflator, with CPI being the least. Corresponding compensation measures should be accordingly designed to offset the negative impact caused by energy subsidies reform. - Highlights: • China's fossil-fuel subsidies were CNY 1214.24 billion in 2008 including external cost. • Removing energy subsidies will have the largest impact on energy-intensity industry. • Removal of oil products subsidies will have the largest impact. • The effect of removing energy subsidies on general price is: PPI>GDP deflator>CPI

  15. AFSC/REFM: FEAST (Forage Euphausiid in Space and Time NPRB B.70 Model output for 1970-2009 Hindcast (Run V146), Kerim Aydin and Andre Punt

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weekly biophysical and fish model output of FEAST. Part of The Bering Sea Project, FEAST is a high resolution (~10km2) spatial model that uses a Regional Ocean...

  16. Atlantis Modeled Output Data for the Coral Reef Ecosystems of Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis Coral Reef Ecosystem Model has been developed and an added coral module to the Atlantis framework has been validated. The model is...

  17. Linear and Non-linear Multi-Input Multi-Output Model Predictive Control of Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muayad Al-Qaisy

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In this article, multi-input multi-output (MIMO linear model predictive controller (LMPC based on state space model and nonlinear model predictive controller based on neural network (NNMPC are applied on a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR. The idea is to have a good control system that will be able to give optimal performance, reject high load disturbance, and track set point change. In order to study the performance of the two model predictive controllers, MIMO Proportional-Integral-Derivative controller (PID strategy is used as benchmark. The LMPC, NNMPC, and PID strategies are used for controlling the residual concentration (CA and reactor temperature (T. NNMPC control shows a superior performance over the LMPC and PID controllers by presenting a smaller overshoot and shorter settling time.

  18. A formal statistical approach to representing uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling with focus on residual analysis and probabilistic output evaluation - Distinguishing simulation and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    evaluation of the modelled output, and we attach particular importance to inspecting the residuals of the model outputs and improving the model uncertainty description. We also introduce the probabilistic performance measures sharpness, reliability and interval skill score for model comparison...... and for checking the reliability of the confidence bounds. Using point rainfall and evaporation data as input and flow measurements from a sewer system for model conditioning, a state space model is formulated that accounts for three different flow contributions: wastewater from households, and fast rainfall......-runoff from paved areas and slow rainfall-dependent infiltration-inflow from unknown sources. We consider two different approaches to evaluate the model output uncertainty, the output error method that lumps all uncertainty into the observation noise term, and a method based on Stochastic Differential...

  19. Embodied water analysis for Hebei Province, China by input-output modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Siyuan; Han, Mengyao; Wu, Xudong; Wu, Xiaofang; Li, Zhi; Xia, Xiaohua; Ji, Xi

    2018-03-01

    With the accelerating coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, regional economic integration is recognized as a national strategy. As water scarcity places Hebei Province in a dilemma, it is of critical importance for Hebei Province to balance water resources as well as make full use of its unique advantages in the transition to sustainable development. To our knowledge, related embodied water accounting analysis has been conducted for Beijing and Tianjin, while similar works with the focus on Hebei are not found. In this paper, using the most complete and recent statistics available for Hebei Province, the embodied water use in Hebei Province is analyzed in detail. Based on input-output analysis, it presents a complete set of systems accounting framework for water resources. In addition, a database of embodied water intensity is proposed which is applicable to both intermediate inputs and final demand. The result suggests that the total amount of embodied water in final demand is 10.62 billion m3, of which the water embodied in urban household consumption accounts for more than half. As a net embodied water importer, the water embodied in the commodity trade in Hebei Province is 17.20 billion m3. The outcome of this work implies that it is particularly urgent to adjust industrial structure and trade policies for water conservation, to upgrade technology and to improve water utilization. As a result, to relieve water shortages in Hebei Province, it is of crucial importance to regulate the balance of water use within the province, thus balancing water distribution in the various industrial sectors.

  20. BALANCED SCORECARDS EVALUATION MODEL THAT INCLUDES ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM USING AHP MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Jovanović

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The research is oriented on improvement of environmental management system (EMS using BSC (Balanced Scorecard model that presents strategic model of measurem ents and improvement of organisational performance. The research will present approach of objectives and environmental management me trics involvement (proposed by literature review in conventional BSC in "Ad Barska plovi dba" organisation. Further we will test creation of ECO-BSC model based on business activities of non-profit organisations in order to improve envir onmental management system in parallel with other systems of management. Using this approach we may obtain 4 models of BSC that includ es elements of environmen tal management system for AD "Barska plovidba". Taking into acc ount that implementation and evaluation need long period of time in AD "Barska plovidba", the final choice will be based on 14598 (Information technology - Software product evaluation and ISO 9126 (Software engineering - Product quality using AHP method. Those standards are usually used for evaluation of quality software product and computer programs that serve in organisation as support and factors for development. So, AHP model will be bas ed on evolution criteria based on suggestion of ISO 9126 standards and types of evaluation from two evaluation teams. Members of team & will be experts in BSC and environmental management system that are not em ployed in AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation. The members of team 2 will be managers of AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation (including manage rs from environmental department. Merging results based on previously cr eated two AHP models, one can obtain the most appropriate BSC that includes elements of environmental management system. The chosen model will present at the same time suggestion for approach choice including ecological metrics in conventional BSC model for firm that has at least one ECO strategic orientation.

  1. Comparison of Model Output of Wind and Wave Parameters with Spaceborne Altimeter Measurements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hwang, Paul

    1998-01-01

    .... While comparisons with point measurements from discrete and sparsely distributed wave buoys provide some measure of statistical confidence, the spatial distribution of the modeled wind and wave...

  2. Markov Modeling of Component Fault Growth Over A Derived Domain of Feasible Output Control Effort Modifications

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper introduces a novel Markov process formulation of stochastic fault growth modeling, in order to facilitate the development and analysis of...

  3. Industrial and ecological cumulative exergy consumption of the United States via the 1997 input-output benchmark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ukidwe, Nandan U.; Bakshi, Bhavik R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a thermodynamic input-output (TIO) model of the 1997 United States economy that accounts for the flow of cumulative exergy in the 488-sector benchmark economic input-output model in two different ways. Industrial cumulative exergy consumption (ICEC) captures the exergy of all natural resources consumed directly and indirectly by each economic sector, while ecological cumulative exergy consumption (ECEC) also accounts for the exergy consumed in ecological systems for producing each natural resource. Information about exergy consumed in nature is obtained from the thermodynamics of biogeochemical cycles. As used in this work, ECEC is analogous to the concept of emergy, but does not rely on any of its controversial claims. The TIO model can also account for emissions from each sector and their impact and the role of labor. The use of consistent exergetic units permits the combination of various streams to define aggregate metrics that may provide insight into aspects related to the impact of economic sectors on the environment. Accounting for the contribution of natural capital by ECEC has been claimed to permit better representation of the quality of ecosystem goods and services than ICEC. The results of this work are expected to permit evaluation of these claims. If validated, this work is expected to lay the foundation for thermodynamic life cycle assessment, particularly of emerging technologies and with limited information

  4. a mathematical model for predicting output in an oilfield in the niger

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    In this paper, a multiple linear regression model was developed for forecasting crude oil production volume in an. , a multiple linear regression model was developed for forecasting crude oil production volume in an oilfield in the Niger Delta area oilfield in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria. Data of crude oil production volume ...

  5. A Mathematical Model for Predicting Output in an Oilfield in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, a multiple linear regression model was developed for forecasting crude oil production volume in an oilfield in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria. Data of crude oil production volume and six significant parameters affecting crude oil volume were collected for a two year window. A six variable linear model was ...

  6. Comparison of Soil Moisture in Switzerland Using In-Situ Measurements and Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittelbach, H.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2011-01-01

    Soil moisture is an essential contributor to land surface- atmosphere interactions. In this study we evaluate the two Land surface models CLM3.5 and SIB3 regarding their performance in simulating soil moisture and its anomalies for the one year period 01.09.2009 to 31.08.2010. Four grassland sites from the SwissSMEX/- Veg project were used as reference soil moisture data. In general, both models represent the soil moisture anomalies and their distribution better than the absolute soil moisture. Furthermore, both models show a seasonal dependence of the correlation and root mean square error. In contrast to the SIB3 model, the CLM3.5 model shows stronger seasonal variation of the root mean square error and a larger interquantile range for soil moisture anomalies.

  7. Discovering the energy, economic and environmental potentials of urban wastes: An input–output model for a metropolis case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Junnian; Yang, Wei; Li, Zhaoling; Higano, Yoshiro; Wang, Xian’en

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A waste-to-energy system is constructed incorporating various urban wastes and technologies. • Waste-to-energy industries are formed and introduced into current socioeconomic system. • A novel input–output simulation model is developed and applied to a metropolis. • Complete energy, economic and environmental potentials of urban wastes are discovered. - Abstract: Tremendous amounts of wastes are generated in urban areas due to accelerating industrialization and urbanization. The current unreasonable waste disposal patterns and potential energy value of urban wastes necessitates the promotion of waste-to-energy implementation. This study is intent on discovering the complete energy, economic and environmental potentials of urban wastes taking municipal solid wastes, waste oil, organic wastewater and livestock manure into consideration. A waste-to-energy system is constructed incorporating these wastes and five waste-to-energy technologies. A novel input–output simulation model is developed and applied to a metropolis to introduce the waste-to-energy system into the current socioeconomic system and form five waste-to-energy industries. The trends in waste generation and energy recovery potential, economic benefits and greenhouse gas mitigation contribution for the study area are estimated and explored from 2011 to 2025. By 2025, biodiesel production and power generation could amount to 72.11 thousand t and 1.59 billion kW h respectively. Due to the highest energy recovery and the most subsidies, the organic wastewater biogas industry has the highest output and net profit, followed by the waste incineration power generation industry. In total 17.97 million t (carbon dioxide-equivalent) accumulative greenhouse gas emission could be mitigated. The organic wastewater biogas industry and waste incineration power generation industry are more advantageous for the study area in terms of better energy, economic and environmental performances. The

  8. Review and Extension of Suitability Assessment Indicators of Weather Model Output for Analyzing Decentralized Energy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Schermeyer

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.

  9. Bioenergetics model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...

  10. Food web model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...

  11. Using dynamically downscaled GCM outputs in hydrological models: a case study from Tasmania, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, J.; Grose, M.; Ling, F.; Corney, S.; Holz, G.; White, C.; Graham, B.; Post, D.; Bindoff, N.

    2010-09-01

    Modelling future runoff by running meteorological projections from global climate models (GCMs) directly through hydrological models presents considerable technical challenges, but promises several advantages over the so-called ‘perturbation method'. The Climate Futures for Tasmania project has projected water yield in Tasmania, Australia to 2100. This paper describes how the Climate Futures for Tasmania project used dynamically downscaled climate projections directly in hydrological models to produce useable information for water managers and industry. Tasmania is a difficult region for climate change hydrology studies. Tasmanian rainfall is generated by complex regional weather systems such as atmospheric blocking that are not always well-represented in GCM-scale projections. Further, the spatial resolution of GCMs is too coarse to represent the complex distribution of Tasmanian rainfall. Rainfall changes caused by changes in these regional weather systems may not be predicted by GCMs. Previous studies of climate change impacts on Tasmanian rivers have used the ‘perturbation method', where historical rainfall and evaporation data are modified to reflect changes predicted by GCMs. In this method rainfall events occur exactly as often as in the historical record - only the magnitude of events changes. This can mask long-term effects on runoff caused by changes in the timing or duration of rainfall events due to climate change. We avoided this problem by dynamically downscaling six GCMs with the regional climate model CCAM to a spatial resolution of 0.1 degrees under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. Dynamical downscaling is computing-intensive, but can simulate changes to rain-bearing weather systems (e.g. increases in convective storms). Downscaled hindcasts generally showed excellent spatial and temporal agreement with climate observations. However, some spatial biases were still evident. To account for these biases, modelled rainfall and evaporation were bias

  12. A stock-flow consistent input-output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Matthew; Hartley, Brian; Richters, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    By synthesizing stock-flow consistent models, input-output models, and aspects of ecological macroeconomics, a method is developed to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. This paper highlights the linkages between the physical environment and the economic system by emphasizing the role of the energy industry. A conceptual model is developed in general form with an arbitrary number of sectors, while emphasizing connections with the agent-based, econophysics, and complexity economics literature. First, we use the model to challenge claims that 0% interest rates are a necessary condition for a stationary economy and conduct a stability analysis within the parameter space of interest rates and consumption parameters of an economy in stock-flow equilibrium. Second, we analyze the role of energy price shocks in contributing to recessions, incorporating several propagation and amplification mechanisms. Third, implied heat emissions from energy conversion and the effect of anthropogenic heat flux on climate change are considered in light of a minimal single-layer atmosphere climate model, although the model is only implicitly, not explicitly, linked to the economic model.

  13. Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

    2012-01-01

    The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve...

  14. On the internal model principle in formation control and in output synchronization of nonlinear systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persis, Claudio De; Jayawardhana, Bayu

    2012-01-01

    The role of internal model principle is investigated in this paper in the context of collective synchronization and formation control problems. In the collective synchronization problem for nonlinear systems, we propose distributed control laws for passive systems which synchronize to the solution

  15. The River Basin Model: Computer Output. Water Pollution Control Research Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Envirometrics, Inc., Washington, DC.

    This research report is part of the Water Pollution Control Research Series which describes the results and progress in the control and abatement of pollution in our nation's waters. The River Basin Model described is a computer-assisted decision-making tool in which a number of computer programs simulate major processes related to water use that…

  16. Robust fuzzy output feedback controller for affine nonlinear systems via T-S fuzzy bilinear model: CSTR benchmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdy, M; Hamdan, I

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, a robust H∞ fuzzy output feedback controller is designed for a class of affine nonlinear systems with disturbance via Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy bilinear model. The parallel distributed compensation (PDC) technique is utilized to design a fuzzy controller. The stability conditions of the overall closed loop T-S fuzzy bilinear model are formulated in terms of Lyapunov function via linear matrix inequality (LMI). The control law is robustified by H∞ sense to attenuate external disturbance. Moreover, the desired controller gains can be obtained by solving a set of LMI. A continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR), which is a benchmark problem in nonlinear process control, is discussed in detail to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach with a comparative study. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Earth System Model Development and Analysis using FRE-Curator and Live Access Servers: On-demand analysis of climate model output with data provenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, A.; Balaji, V.; Schweitzer, R.; Nikonov, S.; O'Brien, K.; Vahlenkamp, H.; Burger, E. F.

    2016-12-01

    There are distinct phases in the development cycle of an Earth system model. During the model development phase, scientists make changes to code and parameters and require rapid access to results for evaluation. During the production phase, scientists may make an ensemble of runs with different settings, and produce large quantities of output, that must be further analyzed and quality controlled for scientific papers and submission to international projects such as the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). During this phase, provenance is a key concern:being able to track back from outputs to inputs. We will discuss one of the paths taken at GFDL in delivering tools across this lifecycle, offering on-demand analysis of data by integrating the use of GFDL's in-house FRE-Curator, Unidata's THREDDS and NOAA PMEL's Live Access Servers (LAS).Experience over this lifecycle suggests that a major difficulty in developing analysis capabilities is only partially the scientific content, but often devoted to answering the questions "where is the data?" and "how do I get to it?". "FRE-Curator" is the name of a database-centric paradigm used at NOAA GFDL to ingest information about the model runs into an RDBMS (Curator database). The components of FRE-Curator are integrated into Flexible Runtime Environment workflow and can be invoked during climate model simulation. The front end to FRE-Curator, known as the Model Development Database Interface (MDBI) provides an in-house web-based access to GFDL experiments: metadata, analysis output and more. In order to provide on-demand visualization, MDBI uses Live Access Servers which is a highly configurable web server designed to provide flexible access to geo-referenced scientific data, that makes use of OPeNDAP. Model output saved in GFDL's tape archive, the size of the database and experiments, continuous model development initiatives with more dynamic configurations add complexity and challenges in providing an on

  18. Gradient System Modelling of Matrix Converters with Input and Output Filters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeltsema, Dimitri; Scherpen, Jacquelien M.A.; Klaassens, J. Ben

    2003-01-01

    Due to its complexity, the dynamics of matrix converters are usually neglected in controller design. However, increasing demands on reduced harmonic generation and higher bandwidths makes it necessary to study large-signal dynamics. A unified methodology that considers matrix converters, including

  19. Output from Statistical Predictive Models as Input to eLearning Dashboards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlene A. Smith

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We describe how statistical predictive models might play an expanded role in educational analytics by giving students automated, real-time information about what their current performance means for eventual success in eLearning environments. We discuss how an online messaging system might tailor information to individual students using predictive analytics. The proposed system would be data-driven and quantitative; e.g., a message might furnish the probability that a student will successfully complete the certificate requirements of a massive open online course. Repeated messages would prod underperforming students and alert instructors to those in need of intervention. Administrators responsible for accreditation or outcomes assessment would have ready documentation of learning outcomes and actions taken to address unsatisfactory student performance. The article’s brief introduction to statistical predictive models sets the stage for a description of the messaging system. Resources and methods needed to develop and implement the system are discussed.

  20. Classification of Nitrate Polluting Activities through Clustering of Isotope Mixing Model Outputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Dongmei; De Baets, Bernard; Van Cleemput, Oswald; Hennessy, Carmel; Berglund, Michael; Boeckx, Pascal

    2013-09-01

    Apportionment of nitrate (NO) sources in surface water and classification of monitoring locations according to NO polluting activities may help implementation of water quality control measures. In this study, we (i) evaluated a Bayesian isotopic mixing model (stable isotope analysis in R [SIAR]) for NO source apportionment using 2 yr of δN-NO and δO-NO data from 29 locations within river basins in Flanders (Belgium) and five expert-defined NO polluting activities, (ii) used the NO source contributions as input to an unsupervised learning algorithm (k-means clustering) to reclassify sampling locations into NO polluting activities, and (iii) assessed if a decision tree model of physicochemical data could retrieve the isotope-based and expert-defined classifications. Based on the SIAR and δB results, manure/sewage was identified as a major NO source, whereas soil N, fertilizer NO, and NH in fertilizer and rain were intermediate sources and NO in precipitation was a minor source. The k-means clustering algorithm allowed classification of NO polluting activities that corresponded well to the expert-defined classifications. A decision tree model of physicochemical parameters allowed us to correctly classify 50 to 100% of the sampling locations as compared with the k-means clustering approach. We suggest that NO polluting activities can be identified via clustering of NO source contributions from samples representing an entire river basin. Classification of future monitoring locations into these classes could use decision tree models based on physicochemical data. The latter approach holds a substantial degree of uncertainty but provides more inherent information for dedicated abatement strategies than monitoring of NO concentrations alone. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  1. WATER TEMPERATURE, SALINITY, and currents speed from 2011-04-01 to 2013-07-30 from model output (NCEI Accession 0166079)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains output of a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution...

  2. WATER TEMPERATURE, SALINITY, and currents speed from 2011-04-01 to 2013-07-30 from model output (NCEI Accession 0131071)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains output of a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution...

  3. Model Predictive Current Control for High-Power Grid-Connected Converters with Output LCL Filter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delpino, Hernan Anres Miranda; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro

    2009-01-01

    A model predictive control strategy for a highpower, grid connected 3-level neutral clamped point converter is presented. Power losses constraints set a limit on commutation losses so reduced switching frequency is required, thus producing low frequency current harmonics. To reduce these harmonics...... an LCL filter is used. The proposed control strategy allows control of the active and reactive power fed into the grid, reduce the switching frequency within acceptable operational margins and keep balance of the DC-link capacitor voltages while avoiding excitation of the filter resonance frequencies....

  4. Surface air relative humidities spuriously exceeding 100% in CMIP5 model output and their impact on future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Jylhä, Kirsti; Räisänen, Jouni; Mäkelä, Antti

    2017-09-01

    In 17 out of the 29 Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models examined in this work, near-surface air relative humidity (RH) frequently exceeded 100% with respect to ice in polar areas in winter. The degree of supersaturation varied considerably across the models, and the same evidently applies to the causes of the phenomenon. Consultations with the modeling groups revealed three categories of explanations for supersaturation occurrence: specification of RH with respect to ice rather than liquid water; inconsistencies in the determination of specific humidity and air temperature for the near-surface level; and the nonlinearity of saturated specific humidity as a function of temperature. Modeled global warming tended to reduce the artificial supersaturations, inducing a spurious negative trend in the future RH change. For example, over East Antarctica under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the multimodel mean RH would decrease by about 10% by the end of the ongoing century. Truncation of overly high RHs to a maximum value of 100% cut the RH response close to zero. In Siberia and northern North America, truncation even reversed the sign of the response. The institutes responsible for the CMIP6 model experiments should be aware of the supersaturation issue, and the algorithms used to produce near-surface RH should be developed to eliminate the problem before publishing the RH output data.

  5. Fault Modeling and Testing for Analog Circuits in Complex Space Based on Supply Current and Output Voltage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongzhi Hu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the modeling of fault for analog circuits. A two-dimensional (2D fault model is first proposed based on collaborative analysis of supply current and output voltage. This model is a family of circle loci on the complex plane, and it simplifies greatly the algorithms for test point selection and potential fault simulations, which are primary difficulties in fault diagnosis of analog circuits. Furthermore, in order to reduce the difficulty of fault location, an improved fault model in three-dimensional (3D complex space is proposed, which achieves a far better fault detection ratio (FDR against measurement error and parametric tolerance. To address the problem of fault masking in both 2D and 3D fault models, this paper proposes an effective design for testability (DFT method. By adding redundant bypassing-components in the circuit under test (CUT, this method achieves excellent fault isolation ratio (FIR in ambiguity group isolation. The efficacy of the proposed model and testing method is validated through experimental results provided in this paper.

  6. A switchable light-input, light-output system modelled and constructed in yeast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozma-Bognar Laszlo

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Advances in synthetic biology will require spatio-temporal regulation of biological processes in heterologous host cells. We develop a light-switchable, two-hybrid interaction in yeast, based upon the Arabidopsis proteins PHYTOCHROME A and FAR-RED ELONGATED HYPOCOTYL 1-LIKE. Light input to this regulatory module allows dynamic control of a light-emitting LUCIFERASE reporter gene, which we detect by real-time imaging of yeast colonies on solid media. Results The reversible activation of the phytochrome by red light, and its inactivation by far-red light, is retained. We use this quantitative readout to construct a mathematical model that matches the system's behaviour and predicts the molecular targets for future manipulation. Conclusion Our model, methods and materials together constitute a novel system for a eukaryotic host with the potential to convert a dynamic pattern of light input into a predictable gene expression response. This system could be applied for the regulation of genetic networks - both known and synthetic.

  7. Self-validated Variance-based Methods for Sensitivity Analysis of Model Outputs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tong, C

    2009-04-20

    Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) has the advantage over local sensitivity analysis in that GSA does not require strong model assumptions such as linearity or monotonicity. As a result, GSA methods such as those based on variance decomposition are well-suited to multi-physics models, which are often plagued by large nonlinearities. However, as with many other sampling-based methods, inadequate sample size can badly pollute the result accuracies. A natural remedy is to adaptively increase the sample size until sufficient accuracy is obtained. This paper proposes an iterative methodology comprising mechanisms for guiding sample size selection and self-assessing result accuracy. The elegant features in the the proposed methodology are the adaptive refinement strategies for stratified designs. We first apply this iterative methodology to the design of a self-validated first-order sensitivity analysis algorithm. We also extend this methodology to design a self-validated second-order sensitivity analysis algorithm based on refining replicated orthogonal array designs. Several numerical experiments are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods.

  8. Use of weather research and forecasting model outputs to obtain near-surface refractive index structure constant over the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Chun; Wu, Xiaoqing; Li, Xuebin; Zhu, Wenyue; Qiao, Chunhong; Rao, Ruizhong; Mei, Haipin

    2016-06-13

    The methods to obtain atmospheric refractive index structure constant (Cn2) by instrument measurement are limited spatially and temporally and they are more difficult and expensive over the ocean. It is useful to forecast Cn2 effectively from Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) outputs. This paper introduces a method that WRF Model is used to forecast the routine meteorological parameters firstly, and then Cn2 is calculated based on these parameters by the Bulk model from the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) over the ocean near-surface. The corresponding Cn2 values measured by the micro-thermometer which is placed on the ship are compared with the ones forecasted by WRF model to determine how this method performs. The result shows that the forecasted Cn2 is consistent with the measured Cn2 in trend and the order of magnitude as a whole, as well as the correlation coefficient is up to 77.57%. This method can forecast some essential aspects of Cn2 and almost always captures the correct magnitude of Cn2, which experiences fluctuations of two orders of magnitude. Thus, it seems to be a feasible and meaningful method that using WRF model to forecast near-surface Cn2 value over the ocean.

  9. Quasi-homogeneous partial coherent source modeling of multimode optical fiber output using the elementary source method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathy, Alaa; Sabry, Yasser M.; Khalil, Diaa A.

    2017-10-01

    Multimode fibers (MMF) have many applications in illumination, spectroscopy, sensing and even in optical communication systems. In this work, we present a model for the MMF output field assuming the fiber end as a quasi-homogenous source. The fiber end is modeled by a group of partially coherent elementary sources, spatially shifted and uncorrelated with each other. The elementary source distribution is derived from the far field intensity measurement, while the weighting function of the sources is derived from the fiber end intensity measurement. The model is compared with practical measurements for fibers with different core/cladding diameters at different propagation distances and for different input excitations: laser, white light and LED. The obtained results show normalized root mean square error less than 8% in the intensity profile in most cases, even when the fiber end surface is not perfectly cleaved. Also, the comparison with the Gaussian-Schell model results shows a better agreement with the measurement. In addition, the complex degree of coherence, derived from the model results, is compared with the theoretical predictions of the modified Van Zernike equation showing very good agreement, which strongly supports the assumption that the large core MMF could be considered as a quasi-homogenous source.

  10. Cloud archiving and data mining of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaylock, Brian K.; Horel, John D.; Liston, Samuel T.

    2017-12-01

    Weather-related research often requires synthesizing vast amounts of data that need archival solutions that are both economical and viable during and past the lifetime of the project. Public cloud computing services (e.g., from Amazon, Microsoft, or Google) or private clouds managed by research institutions are providing object data storage systems potentially appropriate for long-term archives of such large geophysical data sets. We illustrate the use of a private cloud object store developed by the Center for High Performance Computing (CHPC) at the University of Utah. Since early 2015, we have been archiving thousands of two-dimensional gridded fields (each one containing over 1.9 million values over the contiguous United States) from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data assimilation and forecast modeling system. The archive is being used for retrospective analyses of meteorological conditions during high-impact weather events, assessing the accuracy of the HRRR forecasts, and providing initial and boundary conditions for research simulations. The archive is accessible interactively and through automated download procedures for researchers at other institutions that can be tailored by the user to extract individual two-dimensional grids from within the highly compressed files. Characteristics of the CHPC object storage system are summarized relative to network file system storage or tape storage solutions. The CHPC storage system is proving to be a scalable, reliable, extensible, affordable, and usable archive solution for our research.

  11. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yao; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, Anna M.; Wang, Weile; Poulter, Benjamin; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Niu, Shuli; Mao, Jiafu; Jain, Atul; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Ito, Akihiko; Wei, Yaxing; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian

    2017-11-01

    Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  12. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Sha [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Yu, Bofu [Griffith Univ., Nathan Queensland (Australia); Schwalm, Christopher R. [Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Ciais, Philippe [Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Zhang, Yao [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Fisher, Joshua B. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Michalak, Anna M. [Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Wang, Weile [California State Uni., Monterey Bay, Seasid, CA (United States); Poulter, Benjamin [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Huntzinger, Deborah N. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Niu, Shuli [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jain, Atul [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States); Ricciuto, Daniel M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ito, Akihiko [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Huang, Yuefei [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Qinghai Univ., Xining (China); Wang, Guangqian [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)

    2017-10-18

    Here, water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  13. The stability of input structures in a supply-driven input-output model: A regional analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, T.

    1994-06-01

    Disruptions in the supply of strategic resources or other crucial factor inputs often present significant problems for planners and policymakers. The problem may be particularly significant at the regional level where higher levels of product specialization mean supply restrictions are more likely to affect leading regional industries. To maintain economic stability in the event of a supply restriction, regional planners may therefore need to evaluate the importance of market versus non-market systems for allocating the remaining supply of the disrupted resource to the region`s leading consuming industries. This paper reports on research that has attempted to show that large short term changes on the supply side do not lead to substantial changes in input coefficients and do not therefore mean the abandonment of the concept of the production function as has been suggested (Oosterhaven, 1988). The supply-driven model was tested for six sectors of the economy of Washington State and found to yield new input coefficients whose values were in most cases close approximations of their original values, even with substantial changes in supply. Average coefficient changes from a 50% output reduction in these six sectors were in the vast majority of cases (297 from a total of 315) less than +2.0% of their original values, excluding coefficient changes for the restricted input. Given these small changes, the most important issue for the validity of the supply-driven input-output model may therefore be the empirical question of the extent to which these coefficient changes are acceptable as being within the limits of approximation.

  14. Modeling of the dynamics of wind to power conversion including high wind speed behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Bjerge, Martin Huus; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes and validates an efficient, generic and computationally simple dynamic model for the conversion of the wind speed at hub height into the electrical power by a wind turbine. This proposed wind turbine model was developed as a first step to simulate wind power time series...... speed shutdowns and restarts are represented as on–off switching rules that govern the output of the wind turbine at extreme wind speed conditions. The model uses the concept of equivalent wind speed, estimated from the single point (hub height) wind speed using a second-order dynamic filter...... measurements available from the DONG Energy offshore wind farm Horns Rev 2. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  15. Performance of Multi Model Canonical Correlation Analysis (MMCCA) for prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using GCMs output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Ankita; Acharya, Nachiketa; Mohanty, Uma Charan; Mishra, Gopbandhu

    2013-02-01

    The emerging advances in the field of dynamical prediction of monsoon using state-of-the-art General Circulation Models (GCMs) have led to the development of various multi model ensemble techniques (MMEs). In the present study, the concept of Canonical Correlation Analysis is used for making MME (referred as Multi Model Canonical Correlation Analysis or MMCCA) for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during June-July-August-September (JJAS). This method has been employed on the rainfall outputs of six different GCMs for the period 1982 to 2008. The prediction skill of ISMR by MMCCA is compared with the simple composite method (SCM) (i.e. arithmetic mean of all GCMs), which is taken as a benchmark. After a rigorous analysis through different skill metrics such as correlation coefficient and index of agreement, the superiority of MMCCA over SCM is illustrated. Performance of both models is also evaluated during six typical monsoon years and the results indicate the potential of MMCCA over SCM in capturing the spatial pattern during extreme years.

  16. An extended environmental input-output lifecycle assessment model to study the urban food-energy-water nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwood, John; Clabeaux, Raeanne; Carbajales-Dale, Michael

    2017-10-01

    We developed a physically-based environmental account of US food production systems and integrated these data into the environmental-input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) model. The extended model was used to characterize the food, energy, and water (FEW) intensities of every US economic sector. The model was then applied to every Bureau of Economic Analysis metropolitan statistical area (MSA) to determine their FEW usages. The extended EIO-LCA model can determine the water resource use (kGal), energy resource use (TJ), and food resource use in units of mass (kg) or energy content (kcal) of any economic activity within the United States. We analyzed every economic sector to determine its FEW intensities per dollar of economic output. This data was applied to each of the 382 MSAs to determine their total and per dollar of GDP FEW usages by allocating MSA economic production to the corresponding FEW intensities of US economic sectors. Additionally, a longitudinal study was performed for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA, metropolitan statistical area to examine trends from this singular MSA and compare it to the overall results. Results show a strong correlation between GDP and energy use, and between food and water use across MSAs. There is also a correlation between GDP and greenhouse gas emissions. The longitudinal study indicates that these correlations can shift alongside a shifting industrial composition. Comparing MSAs on a per GDP basis reveals that central and southern California tend to be more resource intensive than many other parts of the country, while much of Florida has abnormally low resource requirements. Results of this study enable a more complete understanding of food, energy, and water as key ingredients to a functioning economy. With the addition of the food data to the EIO-LCA framework, researchers will be able to better study the food-energy-water nexus and gain insight into how these three vital resources are interconnected

  17. Minimal output sets for identifiability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anguelova, Milena; Karlsson, Johan; Jirstrand, Mats

    2012-09-01

    Ordinary differential equation models in biology often contain a large number of parameters that must be determined from measurements by parameter estimation. For a parameter estimation procedure to be successful, there must be a unique set of parameters that can have produced the measured data. This is not the case if a model is not uniquely structurally identifiable with the given set of outputs selected as measurements. In designing an experiment for the purpose of parameter estimation, given a set of feasible but resource-consuming measurements, it is useful to know which ones must be included in order to obtain an identifiable system, or whether the system is unidentifiable from the feasible measurement set. We have developed an algorithm that, from a user-provided set of variables and parameters or functions of them assumed to be measurable or known, determines all subsets that when used as outputs give a locally structurally identifiable system and are such that any output set for which the system is structurally identifiable must contain at least one of the calculated subsets. The algorithm has been implemented in Mathematica and shown to be feasible and efficient. We have successfully applied it in the analysis of large signalling pathway models from the literature. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Preliminary evaluation of techniques for transforming regional climate model output to the potential repository site in support of Yucca Mountain future climate synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Behl, Y.K.

    1995-06-01

    The report describes a preliminary evaluation of models for transforming regional climate model output from a regional to a local scale for the Yucca Mountain area. Evaluation and analysis of both empirical and numerical modeling are discussed which is aimed at providing site-specific, climate-based information for use by interfacing activities. Two semiempirical approaches are recommended for further analysis

  19. An Extended Model for Tracking Accumulation Pathways of Materials Using Input–Output Tables: Application to Copper Flows in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryosuke Yokoi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Recycling has become increasingly important as a means to mitigate not only waste issues but also problems related to primary resource use, such as a decrease in resource availability. In order to promote and plan future recycling efficiently, detailed information on the material stock in society is important. For a detailed analysis of material stocks, quantitative information on flows of a material, such as its accumulation pathways, final destinations, and its processing forms, are required. This paper develops a model for tracking accumulation pathways of materials using input–output tables (IOTs. The main characteristics of the proposed model are as follows: (1 accumulations in sectors other than the final demand sectors (i.e., endogenous sectors are explicitly evaluated, (2 accumulations as accompaniments to products, such as containers and packaging, are distinguished from the products, and (3 processing forms of materials are considered. The developed model is applied to analyze copper flows in Japan using the Japanese IOTs for the year 2011. The results show that accumulations of copper in endogenous sectors were not negligibly small (9.24% of the overall flow. Although accumulations of copper as accompaniments were very small, they may be larger for other materials that are largely used as containers or packaging. It was found that the destinations of copper showed different characteristics depending on the processing forms.

  20. Brief communication: On the influence of vertical wind shear on the combined power output of two model wind turbines in yaw

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schottler

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The effect of vertical wind shear on the total power output of two aligned model wind turbines as a function of yaw misalignment of the upstream turbine is studied experimentally. It is shown that asymmetries of the power output of the downstream turbine and the combined power of both with respect to the upstream turbine's yaw misalignment angle can be linked to the vertical wind shear of the inflow.

  1. Improvement of a mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. Utilization of output from synoptic numerical prediction model for initial and boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1995-03-01

    This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)

  2. Multi-output model with Box-Jenkins operators of linear indices to predict multi-target inhibitors of ubiquitin-proteasome pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casañola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong; Pérez-Giménez, Facundo; Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Merino-Sanjuán, Matilde; Abad, Concepción; González-Díaz, Humberto

    2015-05-01

    The ubiquitin-proteasome pathway (UPP) plays an important role in the degradation of cellular proteins and regulation of different cellular processes that include cell cycle control, proliferation, differentiation, and apoptosis. In this sense, the disruption of proteasome activity leads to different pathological states linked to clinical disorders such as inflammation, neurodegeneration, and cancer. The use of UPP inhibitors is one of the proposed approaches to manage these alterations. On other hand, the ChEMBL database contains >5,000 experimental outcomes for >2,000 compounds tested as possible proteasome inhibitors using a large number of pharmacological assay protocols. All these assays report a large number of experimental parameters of biological activity like EC50, IC50 percent of inhibition, and many others that have been determined under many different conditions, targets, organisms, etc. Although this large amount of data offers new opportunities for the computational discovery of proteasome inhibitors, the complexity of these data represents a bottleneck for the development of predictive models. In this work, we used linear molecular indices calculated with the software TOMOCOMD-CARDD and Box-Jenkins moving average operators to develop a multi-output model that can predict outcomes for 20 experimental parameters in >450 assays carried out under different conditions. This generated multi-output model showed values of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity above 70% for training and validation series. Finally, this model is considered multi-target and multi-scale, because it predicts the inhibition of the UPP for drugs against 22 molecular or cellular targets of different organisms contained in the ChEMBL database.

  3. A Multi-Objective Input–Output Linear Model for Water Supply, Economic Growth and Environmental Planning in Resource-Based Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlan Ke

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Water resource and environment capacity have become two of the most important restrictions for sustainable development in resource-based cities whose leading industries are the exploitation and processing of resources. Taking Ordos in China as an example, this article constructs an integrated model combining a multi-objective optimization model with input–output analysis to achieve the tradeoffs between economic growth, water utilization and environmental protection. This dynamic model includes socioeconomic, water supply–demand, water quality control, air quality control, energy consumption control and integrated policy sub-models. These six sub-models interact with each other. After simulation, this article proposes efficient solutions on industrial restructuring by maximizing the Gross Regional Product of Ordos from 394.3 in 2012 to 785.1 billion RMB in 2025 with a growth rate of 6.4% annually; and presents a water supply plan by maximizing the proportion of reclaimed water from 2% to 6.3% through sewage treatment technology selection and introduction, and effective water allocation. Meanwhile, the environmental impacts are all in line with the planning targets. This study illustrates that the integrated modeling is generic and can be applied to any region suffering uncoordinated development issues and can serve as a pre-evaluation approach for conducting early warning research to offer suggestions for government decision-making.

  4. Simplification and Validation of a Spectral-Tensor Model for Turbulence Including Atmospheric Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chougule, Abhijit; Mann, Jakob; Kelly, Mark; Larsen, Gunner C.

    2018-02-01

    A spectral-tensor model of non-neutral, atmospheric-boundary-layer turbulence is evaluated using Eulerian statistics from single-point measurements of the wind speed and temperature at heights up to 100 m, assuming constant vertical gradients of mean wind speed and temperature. The model has been previously described in terms of the dissipation rate ɛ , the length scale of energy-containing eddies L , a turbulence anisotropy parameter Γ, the Richardson number Ri, and the normalized rate of destruction of temperature variance η _θ ≡ ɛ _θ /ɛ . Here, the latter two parameters are collapsed into a single atmospheric stability parameter z / L using Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, where z is the height above the Earth's surface, and L is the Obukhov length corresponding to Ri,η _θ. Model outputs of the one-dimensional velocity spectra, as well as cospectra of the streamwise and/or vertical velocity components, and/or temperature, and cross-spectra for the spatial separation of all three velocity components and temperature, are compared with measurements. As a function of the four model parameters, spectra and cospectra are reproduced quite well, but horizontal temperature fluxes are slightly underestimated in stable conditions. In moderately unstable stratification, our model reproduces spectra only up to a scale ˜ 1 km. The model also overestimates coherences for vertical separations, but is less severe in unstable than in stable cases.

  5. An Input and Output Analysis of the Quaternity-Dominating Energy Engineering Model from China’s Countryside

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Xing Long; Xian Xue, Wei

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study is to qualitatively and quantitatively explore an energy engineering model termed quaternity-dominating pattern emerging in North China’s countryside. This study finds methane produced in this model serves household activities such as cooking, inducing reduction of coal or biomass spending, which otherwise would provoke air pollution, water loss and land erosion, and ultimately leading to ecological environment betterment. Additionally, this project generates byproducts, biogas liquids and residuals, which can, as a category of fertilizer, can promote straightening of fertility preservation capacity and improvement in the chemical and physical quality of land as well as increasing crop output and quality. This study also finds this engineering could encourage social stability via efficiently allocating bucolic surplus labor during winter and successful running this engineering project would trigger an increase of scientific and technological qualifications for rural citizens. Moreover, cost-profit analysis indicates this pattern can allow one rural home to obtain access to a hygienic energy resource of biogas in the yearly volume of 375m3, generate annual net earnings of US3458.82 and make investment return in about 2.73 years. Especially for poverty-stricken areas, this energy engineering project enjoys high values and great significance, which can lift these impoverished areas from poverty both in economics and energy. The paper concludes with pointing out practical proposals on launching and operating this energy engineering project.

  6. China’s Input-Output Efficiency of Water-Energy-Food Nexus Based on the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guijun Li

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available An explanation and quantification of the water-energy-food nexus (WEF-Nexus is important to advance our understanding of regional resource management, which is presently in its infant stage. Evaluation of the current states, interconnections, and trends of WEF-Nexus, in cities, has largely been ignored due to quantification hurdles and the lack of available data. Based on the interaction of WEF-Nexus with population system, economic system, and environmental system, this paper builds the input output index system at the city level. Using the input output index system, we evaluate the WEF-Nexus input-output efficiency with the data envelopment analysis (DEA model. We regard the decision making unit as a “black box”, to explore the states and trends of WEF-Nexus. In the empirical study based on data from China, we compare the input-output efficiency of WEF-Nexus in 30 provinces across China, from 2005 to 2014, to better understand their statues and trends of the input-output efficiency holistically. Together with the Malmquist index, factors leading to regional differences in the fluctuation of input-output efficiency are explored. Finally, we conclude that the DEA model indicates the regional consumption of WEF resources in the horizontal dimension and the trends in vertical dimension, together with the Malmquist index, to explain the variations for proposing specific implications.

  7. Influence of Rainfall Product on Hydrological and Sediment Outputs when Calibrating the STREAP Rainfall Generator for the CAESAR-Lisflood Landscape Evolution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Christopher; Peleg, Nadav; Quinn, Niall

    2017-04-01

    The use of Landscape Evolution Models often requires a timeseries of rainfall to drive the model. The spatial and temporal resolution of the driving data has an impact on several model outputs, including the shape of the landscape itself. Attempts to compensate for the spatiotemporal smoothing of local rainfall intensities are insufficient and may exacerbate these issues, meaning that to produce the best results the model needs to be run with data of highest spatial and temporal resolutions available. Some rainfall generators are able to produce timeseries with high spatial and temporal resolution. Observed data is used for the calibration of these generators. However, rainfall observations are highly uncertain and vary between different products (e.g. raingauges, weather radar) which may cascade through the Landscape Evolution Model. Here, we used the STREAP rainfall generator to produce high spatial (1km) and temporal (hourly) resolution ensembles of rainfall for a 50-year period, and used these to drive the CAESAR-Lisflood Landscape Evolution Model for a test catchment. Three different calibrations of STREAP were used against different products: gridded raingauge (TBR), weather radar (NIMROD), and a merged of the two. Analysis of the discharge and sediment yields from the model runs showed that the models run by STREAP calibrated by the different products were statistically significantly different, with the raingauge calibration producing 12.4 % more sediment on average over the 50-year period. The merged product produced results which were between the raingauge and radar products. The results demonstrate the importance of considering the selection of rainfall driving data on Landscape Evolution Modelling. Rainfall products are highly uncertain, different instruments will observe rainfall differently, and these uncertainties are clearly shown to cascade through the calibration of the rainfall generator and the Landscape Evolution Model. Merging raingauge and

  8. The Lag Model, a Turbulence Model for Wall Bounded Flows Including Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Michael E.; Coakley, Thomas J.; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A new class of turbulence model is described for wall bounded, high Reynolds number flows. A specific turbulence model is demonstrated, with results for favorable and adverse pressure gradient flowfields. Separation predictions are as good or better than either Spalart Almaras or SST models, do not require specification of wall distance, and have similar or reduced computational effort compared with these models.

  9. A model for external drift kriging with uncertain covariates applied to air quality measurements and dispersion model output

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kassteele, van de J.; Stein, A.

    2006-01-01

    We present a method that combines uncertain air quality measurements with uncertain secondary information from an atmospheric dispersion model. The method combines external drift kriging and a measurement error (ME) model, and uses Bayesian techniques for inference. An illustration with simulated

  10. Predicting favorable conditions for early leaf spot of peanut using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olatinwo, Rabiu O; Prabha, Thara V; Paz, Joel O; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

    2012-03-01

    Early leaf spot of peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.), a disease caused by Cercospora arachidicola S. Hori, is responsible for an annual crop loss of several million dollars in the southeastern United States alone. The development of early leaf spot on peanut and subsequent spread of the spores of C. arachidicola relies on favorable weather conditions. Accurate spatio-temporal weather information is crucial for monitoring the progression of favorable conditions and determining the potential threat of the disease. Therefore, the development of a prediction model for mitigating the risk of early leaf spot in peanut production is important. The specific objective of this study was to demonstrate the application of the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for management of early leaf spot in peanut. We coupled high-resolution weather output of the WRF, i.e. relative humidity and temperature, with the Oklahoma peanut leaf spot advisory model in predicting favorable conditions for early leaf spot infection over Georgia in 2007. Results showed a more favorable infection condition in the southeastern coastline of Georgia where the infection threshold were met sooner compared to the southwestern and central part of Georgia where the disease risk was lower. A newly introduced infection threat index indicates that the leaf spot threat threshold was met sooner at Alma, GA, compared to Tifton and Cordele, GA. The short-term prediction of weather parameters and their use in the management of peanut diseases is a viable and promising technique, which could help growers make accurate management decisions, and lower disease impact through optimum timing of fungicide applications.

  11. The European Distribution of Sus Scrofa. Model Outputs from the Project Described within the Poster – Where are All the Boars? An Attempt to Gain a Continental Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Stewart Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Wild boar is a host of a number of arthropod-vectored diseases and its numbers are on the rise in mainland Europe. The species potentially impacts ecosystems, humans and farming practices and so its distribution is of interest to policy makers in a number of fields beyond that of the primarily epidemiological goal of this study. Three statistical model outputs describing the distribution and abundance of the species Sus scrofa (Wild boar are included in this data package. The extent of this dataset covers continental Europe. These data were presented as a poster [1] at the conference Genes, Ecosystems and Risk of Infection (GERI 2015. The first of the three models provide a European map presenting the probability of presence of Sus scrofa, which can be used to describe the likely geographical distribution of the species. The second and third models provide indices to help describe the likely abundance across the continent. The two indices include “the proportion of suitable habitat where presence is estimated” and a simple classification of boar abundance across Europe using quantiles of existing abundance data and proxies.

  12. BioModels: expanding horizons to include more modelling approaches and formats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glont, Mihai; Nguyen, Tung V N; Graesslin, Martin; Hälke, Robert; Ali, Raza; Schramm, Jochen; Wimalaratne, Sarala M; Kothamachu, Varun B; Rodriguez, Nicolas; Swat, Maciej J; Eils, Jurgen; Eils, Roland; Laibe, Camille; Malik-Sheriff, Rahuman S; Chelliah, Vijayalakshmi; Le Novère, Nicolas; Hermjakob, Henning

    2018-01-04

    BioModels serves as a central repository of mathematical models representing biological processes. It offers a platform to make mathematical models easily shareable across the systems modelling community, thereby supporting model reuse. To facilitate hosting a broader range of model formats derived from diverse modelling approaches and tools, a new infrastructure for BioModels has been developed that is available at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/biomodels. This new system allows submitting and sharing of a wide range of models with improved support for formats other than SBML. It also offers a version-control backed environment in which authors and curators can work collaboratively to curate models. This article summarises the features available in the current system and discusses the potential benefit they offer to the users over the previous system. In summary, the new portal broadens the scope of models accepted in BioModels and supports collaborative model curation which is crucial for model reproducibility and sharing. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  13. Documentation of the dynamic parameter, water-use, stream and lake flow routing, and two summary output modules and updates to surface-depression storage simulation and initial conditions specification options with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, R. Steve; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

    2017-10-05

    This report documents seven enhancements to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic simulation code: two time-series input options, two new output options, and three updates of existing capabilities. The enhancements are (1) new dynamic parameter module, (2) new water-use module, (3) new Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) summary output module, (4) new basin variables summary output module, (5) new stream and lake flow routing module, (6) update to surface-depression storage and flow simulation, and (7) update to the initial-conditions specification. This report relies heavily upon U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 6, chapter B7, which documents PRMS version 4 (PRMS-IV). A brief description of PRMS is included in this report.

  14. Inverter communications using output signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Patrick L.

    2017-02-07

    Technologies for communicating information from an inverter configured for the conversion of direct current (DC) power generated from an alternative source to alternating current (AC) power are disclosed. The technologies include determining information to be transmitted from the inverter over a power line cable connected to the inverter and controlling the operation of an output converter of the inverter as a function of the information to be transmitted to cause the output converter to generate an output waveform having the information modulated thereon.

  15. Prediction of Lumen Output and Chromaticity Shift in LEDs Using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter Based Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Davis, J Lynn

    2014-06-24

    Abstract— Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have

  16. The commissioning of the advanced radiographic capability laser system: experimental and modeling results at the main laser output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Nicola, J. M.; Yang, S. T.; Boley, C. D.; Crane, J. K.; Heebner, J. E.; Spinka, T. M.; Arnold, P.; Barty, C. P. J.; Bowers, M. W.; Budge, T. S.; Christensen, K.; Dawson, J. W.; Erbert, G.; Feigenbaum, E.; Guss, G.; Haefner, C.; Hermann, M. R.; Homoelle, D.; Jarboe, J. A.; Lawson, J. K.; Lowe-Webb, R.; McCandless, K.; McHale, B.; Pelz, L. J.; Pham, P. P.; Prantil, M. A.; Rehak, M. L.; Rever, M. A.; Rushford, M. C.; Sacks, R. A.; Shaw, M.; Smauley, D.; Smith, L. K.; Speck, R.; Tietbohl, G.; Wegner, P. J.; Widmayer, C.

    2015-02-01

    The National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is the first of a kind megajoule-class laser with 192 beams capable of delivering over 1.8 MJ and 500TW of 351nm light [1], [2]. It has been commissioned and operated since 2009 to support a wide range of missions including the study of inertial confinement fusion, high energy density physics, material science, and laboratory astrophysics. In order to advance our understanding, and enable short-pulse multi-frame radiographic experiments of dense cores of cold material, the generation of very hard x-rays above 50 keV is necessary. X-rays with such characteristics can be efficiently generated with high intensity laser pulses above 1017 W/cm² [3]. The Advanced Radiographic Capability (ARC) [4] which is currently being commissioned on the NIF will provide eight, 1 ps to 50 ps, adjustable pulses with up to 1.7 kJ each to create x-ray point sources enabling dynamic, multi-frame x-ray backlighting. This paper will provide an overview of the ARC system and report on the laser performance tests conducted with a stretched-pulse up to the main laser output and their comparison with the results of our laser propagation codes.

  17. An extended TRANSCAR model including ionospheric convection: simulation of EISCAT observations using inputs from AMIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.-L. Blelly

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available The TRANSCAR ionospheric model was extended to account for the convection of the magnetic field lines in the auroral and polar ionosphere. A mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian 13-moment approach was used to describe the dynamics of an ionospheric plasma tube. In the present study, one focuses on large scale transports in the polar ionosphere. The model was used to simulate a 35-h period of EISCAT-UHF observations on 16-17 February 1993. The first day was magnetically quiet, and characterized by elevated electron concentrations: the diurnal F2 layer reached as much as 1012m-3, which is unusual for a winter and moderate solar activity (F10.7=130 period. An intense geomagnetic event occurred on the second day, seen in the data as a strong intensification of the ionosphere convection velocities in the early afternoon (with the northward electric field reaching 150mVm-1 and corresponding frictional heating of the ions up to 2500K. The simulation used time-dependent AMIE outputs to infer flux-tube transports in the polar region, and to provide magnetospheric particle and energy inputs to the ionosphere. The overall very good agreement, obtained between the model and the observations, demonstrates the high ability of the extended TRANSCAR model for quantitative modelling of the high-latitude ionosphere; however, some differences are found which are attributed to the precipitation of electrons with very low energy. All these results are finally discussed in the frame of modelling the auroral ionosphere with space weather applications in mind.

  18. An extended TRANSCAR model including ionospheric convection: simulation of EISCAT observations using inputs from AMIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.-L. Blelly

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available The TRANSCAR ionospheric model was extended to account for the convection of the magnetic field lines in the auroral and polar ionosphere. A mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian 13-moment approach was used to describe the dynamics of an ionospheric plasma tube. In the present study, one focuses on large scale transports in the polar ionosphere. The model was used to simulate a 35-h period of EISCAT-UHF observations on 16-17 February 1993. The first day was magnetically quiet, and characterized by elevated electron concentrations: the diurnal F2 layer reached as much as 1012m-3, which is unusual for a winter and moderate solar activity (F10.7=130 period. An intense geomagnetic event occurred on the second day, seen in the data as a strong intensification of the ionosphere convection velocities in the early afternoon (with the northward electric field reaching 150mVm-1 and corresponding frictional heating of the ions up to 2500K. The simulation used time-dependent AMIE outputs to infer flux-tube transports in the polar region, and to provide magnetospheric particle and energy inputs to the ionosphere. The overall very good agreement, obtained between the model and the observations, demonstrates the high ability of the extended TRANSCAR model for quantitative modelling of the high-latitude ionosphere; however, some differences are found which are attributed to the precipitation of electrons with very low energy. All these results are finally discussed in the frame of modelling the auroral ionosphere with space weather applications in mind.

  19. The impact of domestic trade on China's regional energy uses: A multi-regional input–output modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z.M.; Xia, X.H.; Xu, X.Y.; Chen, Y.B.

    2013-01-01

    To systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on China's regional energy uses, an interprovincial input–output modeling is carried out to address demand-derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data. Both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights. Significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver, in contrast to Guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver. By considering the impacts of interregional trade, the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably. For instance, Shanghai, Hainan, Zhejiang, Beijing, Jiangsu and Guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87.49, 19.97, 13.64, 12.60, 6.46 and 6.38 times of their direct energy inputs, respectively. In contrast, the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Guizhou decrease largely. The results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend China's current end-reduction-oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer. - Highlights: • Demand-derived energy requirements for China's regional economies are addressed. • Significant interregional transfers of embodied energy flows are identified. • Energy surpluses are obtained by 19 regions and deficits by the other 11 regions. • The eastern regions should take more responsibility for reducing China's energy uses

  20. Global source identification of Arctic air pollution using statistical analysis of particle dispersion model output and measurement data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirdman, D. A.; Burkhart, J. F.; Eckhardt, S.; Sodemann, H.; Stohl, A.

    2008-12-01

    Arctic air pollution has received renewed interest recently because of its contribution to climate change in the Arctic. Nevertheless, its sources are still not known with sufficient accuracy. Most of our understanding of Arctic air pollution sources is based on model simulations, analysis of air pollution episodes or, at best, statistical analysis of air mass back-trajectories. Here, we present a new approach, namely combining the output of a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, FLEXPART, with measurement data from Arctic air pollution monitoring sites (Alert, Barrow, Summit, Zeppelin). This approach is similar to existing statistical methods for analyzing back-trajectories in conjunction with air pollution monitoring data. However, it has the advantage that the underlying model calculations also take into account turbulence and convection in the atmosphere, which are ignored by ordinary trajectory calculations. FLEXPART is run 20 days backward in time from each of the stations and every three hours, for several years. With every calculation, a so-called potential emission sensitivity (PES) field is obtained, which identifies where the measured air mass has come into contact with the Earth's surface. It quantitatively measures the sensitivity of the signal obtained at the station, to emissions occurring at or near the surface. By combining these PES fields with measured concentrations of several trace species e.g., carbon monoxide, sulphate, black carbon, and ozone. By performing a statistical analysis, we identify where the measured species most likely originate. Statistical analyses are performed both for average concentrations as well as the 10th and 90th percentiles of the measured frequency distribution. We implement a bootstrap resampling procedure to verify the statistical significance of the patterns observed in our retrieved PES maps. Some of our findings are: carbon monoxide and sulphate measured at Zeppelin originate from the Eurasian continent

  1. A state space averaged duo-mode SPICE model of a four-output current-programmed push-pull converter with Magamp post regulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jesse E.; Rodriguez, Francis D.; Schaffner, Ronald J.

    A nonlinear duomode state space-averaged SPICE model of a current-programmed push-pull converter with four outputs and two magamp postregulators is described. Convergence 'tricks' are discussed and simulations are compared to lab measurements. SPICE can be used to estimate the large signal behavior of multioutput push-pull converters under current-programmed control.

  2. Exploring the Role Played by Error Correction and Models on Children's Reported Noticing and Output Production in a L2 Writing Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, Yvette; Roca de Larios, Julio

    2014-01-01

    This article reports an empirical study in which we explored the role played by two forms of feedback--error correction and model texts--on child English as a foreign language learners' reported noticing and written output. The study was carried out with 11- and 12-year-old children placed in proficiency-matched pairs who engaged in a…

  3. Mathematical Model of Thyristor Inverter Including a Series-parallel Resonant Circuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslaw Luft

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit with theaid of state variable method. Maple procedures are used to compute current and voltage waveforms in the inverter.

  4. Mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit

    OpenAIRE

    Luft, M.; Szychta, E.

    2008-01-01

    The article presents a mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit with the aid of state variable method. Maple procedures are used to compute current and voltage waveforms in the inverter.

  5. Mathematical Model of Thyristor Inverter Including a Series-parallel Resonant Circuit

    OpenAIRE

    Miroslaw Luft; Elzbieta Szychta

    2008-01-01

    The article presents a mathematical model of thyristor inverter including a series-parallel resonant circuit with theaid of state variable method. Maple procedures are used to compute current and voltage waveforms in the inverter.

  6. Modeling of Pem Fuel Cell Systems Including Controls and Reforming Effects for Hybrid Automotive Applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Boettner, Daisie

    2001-01-01

    .... This study develops models for a stand-alone Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell stack, a direct-hydrogen fuel cell system including auxiliaries, and a methanol reforming fuel cell system for integration into a vehicle performance simulator...

  7. High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal

  8. Modeling of the Direct Current Generator Including the Magnetic Saturation and Temperature Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfonso J. Mercado-Samur

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the inclusion of temperature effect on the field resistance on the direct current generator model DC1A, which is valid to stability studies is proposed. First, the linear generator model is presented, after the effect of magnetic saturation and the change in the resistance value due to temperature produced by the field current are included. The comparison of experimental results and model simulations to validate the model is used. A direct current generator model which is a better representation of the generator is obtained. Visual comparison between simulations and experimental results shows the success of the proposed model, because it presents the lowest error of the compared models. The accuracy of the proposed model is observed via Modified Normalized Sum of Squared Errors index equal to 3.8979%.

  9. Atmosphere-soil-vegetation model including CO2 exchange processes: SOLVEG2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu

    2004-11-01

    A new atmosphere-soil-vegetation model named SOLVEG2 (SOLVEG version 2) was developed to study the heat, water, and CO 2 exchanges between the atmosphere and land-surface. The model consists of one-dimensional multilayer sub-models for the atmosphere, soil, and vegetation. It also includes sophisticated processes for solar and long-wave radiation transmission in vegetation canopy and CO 2 exchanges among the atmosphere, soil, and vegetation. Although the model usually simulates only vertical variation of variables in the surface-layer atmosphere, soil, and vegetation canopy by using meteorological data as top boundary conditions, it can be used by coupling with a three-dimensional atmosphere model. In this paper, details of SOLVEG2, which includes the function of coupling with atmosphere model MM5, are described. (author)

  10. Combining prior knowledge with data driven modeling of a batch distillation column including start-up

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Lith, PF; Betlem, BHL; Roffel, B

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a simple model which describes the product quality and production over time of an experimental batch distillation column, including start-up. The model structure is based on a simple physical framework, which is augmented with fuzzy logic. This provides a way

  11. Enhanced UWB Radio Channel Model for Short-Range Communication Scenarios Including User Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kovacs, Istvan Zsolt; Nguyen, Tuan Hung; Eggers, Patrick Claus F.

    2005-01-01

    channel model represents an enhancement of the existing IEEE 802.15.3a/4a PAN channel model, where antenna and user-proximity effects are not included. Our investigations showed that significant variations of the received wideband power and time-delay signal clustering are possible due the human body...

  12. Including operational data in QMRA model: development and impact of model inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaidi, Kenza; Barbeau, Benoit; Carrière, Annie; Desjardins, Raymond; Prévost, Michèle

    2009-03-01

    A Monte Carlo model, based on the Quantitative Microbial Risk Analysis approach (QMRA), has been developed to assess the relative risks of infection associated with the presence of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in drinking water. The impact of various approaches for modelling the initial parameters of the model on the final risk assessments is evaluated. The Monte Carlo simulations that we performed showed that the occurrence of parasites in raw water was best described by a mixed distribution: log-Normal for concentrations > detection limit (DL), and a uniform distribution for concentrations risks significantly. The mean annual risks for conventional treatment are: 1.97E-03 (removal credit adjusted by log parasite = log spores), 1.58E-05 (log parasite = 1.7 x log spores) or 9.33E-03 (regulatory credits based on the turbidity measurement in filtered water). Using full scale validated SCADA data, the simplified calculation of CT performed at the plant was shown to largely underestimate the risk relative to a more detailed CT calculation, which takes into consideration the downtime and system failure events identified at the plant (1.46E-03 vs. 3.93E-02 for the mean risk).

  13. LISA package user guide. Part III: SPOP (Statistical POst Processor). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for model output. Program description and user guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, A.; Homma, T.

    1992-01-01

    This manual is subdivided into three parts. In the third part, the SPOP (Statistical POst Processor) code is described as a tool to perform Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses on the output of a User implemented model. It has been developed at the joint Research Centre of Ispra as part of the LISA package. SPOP performs Sensitivity Analysis (SA) and Uncertainty Analysis (UA) on a sample output from a Monte Carlo simulation. The sample is generated by the User and contains values of the output variable (in the form of a time series) and values of the input variables for a set of different simulations (runs), which are realised by varying the model input parameters. The User may generate the Monte Carlo sample with the PREP pre-processor, another module of the LISA package. The SPOP code is completely written in FORTRAN 77 using structured programming. Among the tasks performed by the code are the computation of Tchebycheff and Kolmogorov confidence bounds on the output variable (UA), and the use of effective non-parametric statistics to rank the influence of model input parameters (SA). The statistics employed are described in the present manual. 19 refs., 16 figs., 2 tabs. Note: This PART III is a revised version of the previous EUR report N.12700EN (1990)

  14. A conceptual model for analysing input-output coefficients in arable farming systems: from diagnosis towards design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koeijer, de T.J.; Wossink, G.A.A.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Struik, P.C.; Renkema, J.

    1999-01-01

    Environmental legislation is forcing a rethink about desirable crop production systems. The development of new production systems that meet economic and environmental objectives demands knowledge about which input–output combinations are feasible and optimal in practice. A review of concepts in

  15. Comparisons of four categories of waste recycling in China's paper industry based on physical input-output life-cycle assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu; Xu, Yijian

    2012-03-01

    Waste recycling for paper production is an important component of waste management. This study constructs a physical input-output life-cycle assessment (PIO-LCA) model. The PIO-LCA model is used to investigate environmental impacts of four categories of waste recycling in China's paper industry: crop straws, bagasse, textile wastes and scrap paper. Crop straw recycling and wood utilization for paper production have small total intensity of environmental impacts. Moreover, environmental impacts reduction of crop straw recycling and wood utilization benefits the most from technology development. Thus, using crop straws and wood (including wood wastes) for paper production should be promoted. Technology development has small effects on environmental impacts reduction of bagasse recycling, textile waste recycling and scrap paper recycling. In addition, bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling have big total intensity of environmental impacts. Thus, the development of bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling should be properly limited. Other pathways for reusing bagasse and textile wastes should be explored and evaluated. Moreover, imports of scrap paper should be encouraged to reduce large indirect impacts of scrap paper recycling on domestic environment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Comparisons of four categories of waste recycling in China’s paper industry based on physical input–output life-cycle assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu; Xu Yijian

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Using crop straws and wood wastes for paper production should be promoted. ► Bagasse and textile waste recycling should be properly limited. ► Imports of scrap paper should be encouraged. ► Sensitivity analysis, uncertainties and policy implications are discussed. - Abstract: Waste recycling for paper production is an important component of waste management. This study constructs a physical input–output life-cycle assessment (PIO-LCA) model. The PIO-LCA model is used to investigate environmental impacts of four categories of waste recycling in China’s paper industry: crop straws, bagasse, textile wastes and scrap paper. Crop straw recycling and wood utilization for paper production have small total intensity of environmental impacts. Moreover, environmental impacts reduction of crop straw recycling and wood utilization benefits the most from technology development. Thus, using crop straws and wood (including wood wastes) for paper production should be promoted. Technology development has small effects on environmental impacts reduction of bagasse recycling, textile waste recycling and scrap paper recycling. In addition, bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling have big total intensity of environmental impacts. Thus, the development of bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling should be properly limited. Other pathways for reusing bagasse and textile wastes should be explored and evaluated. Moreover, imports of scrap paper should be encouraged to reduce large indirect impacts of scrap paper recycling on domestic environment.

  17. Mathematical modeling of the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal gland (HPA) axis, including hippocampal mechanisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten; Vinther, Frank; Ottesen, Johnny T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model of the HPA axis. The HPA axis consists of the hypothalamus, the pituitary and the adrenal glands in which the three hormones CRH, ACTH and cortisol interact through receptor dynamics. Furthermore, it has been suggested that receptors in the hippocampus have...... an influence on the axis.A model is presented with three coupled, non-linear differential equations, with the hormones CRH, ACTH and cortisol as variables. The model includes the known features of the HPA axis, and includes the effects from the hippocampus through its impact on CRH in the hypothalamus...

  18. Multi-regional input–output model and ecological network analysis for regional embodied energy accounting in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yan; Zheng, Hongmei; Yang, Zhifeng; Su, Meirong; Liu, Gengyuan; Li, Yanxian

    2015-01-01

    Chinese regions frequently exchange materials, but regional differences in economic development create unbalanced flows of these resources. In this study, we examined energy by assessing embodied energy consumption to describe the energy-flow structure in China's seven regions. Based on multi-regional monetary input–output tables and energy statistical yearbooks for Chinese provinces in 2002 and 2007, we accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption, respectively, and the integral input and output of the provinces. Most integral inputs of energy flowed from north to south or from east to west, whereas integral output flows were mainly from northeast to southwest. This differed from the direct flows, which were predominantly from north to south and west to east. This demonstrates the importance of calculating both direct and indirect energy flows. Analysis of the distance and direction traveled by the energy consumption centers of gravity showed that the centers for embodied energy consumption and inputs moved southeast because of the movements of the centers of the Eastern region. However, the center for outputs moved northeast because the movement of the Central region. These analyses provide a basis for identifying how regional economic development policies influence the embodied energy consumption and its flows among regions. - Highlights: • We integrated multi-regional input–output analysis with ecological network analysis. • We accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption. • The centers of gravity for embodied energy flows moved southeast from 2002 to 2007. • The results support planning of energy consumption and energy flows among regions.

  19. The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; hide

    2016-01-01

    Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to

  20. The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Silva

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs, the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry–climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year−1, likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000 deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year−1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios

  1. Forecasting the weather at the TAL sites during STS-40 using the grid point forecast output from the NMC MRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hafele, Gene M.

    1992-01-01

    The NOAA's Spaceflight Meteorology Group has used the point forecast output from the Global Profile Archive and Global Profile Archive since 1990, and found this product to allow forecasters to examine the MRF model in a vertical profile, and thereby determine how different model parameters behave over time. Attention is presently given to the use of these resources in the illustrative case of the STS-40 mission, over northwestern Spain.

  2. Modification of TOUGH2 to Include the Dusty Gas Model for Gas Diffusion; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    WEBB, STEPHEN W.

    2001-01-01

    The GEO-SEQ Project is investigating methods for geological sequestration of CO(sub 2). This project, which is directed by LBNL and includes a number of other industrial, university, and national laboratory partners, is evaluating computer simulation methods including TOUGH2 for this problem. The TOUGH2 code, which is a widely used code for flow and transport in porous and fractured media, includes simplified methods for gas diffusion based on a direct application of Fick's law. As shown by Webb (1998) and others, the Dusty Gas Model (DGM) is better than Fick's Law for modeling gas-phase diffusion in porous media. In order to improve gas-phase diffusion modeling for the GEO-SEQ Project, the EOS7R module in the TOUGH2 code has been modified to include the Dusty Gas Model as documented in this report. In addition, the liquid diffusion model has been changed from a mass-based formulation to a mole-based model. Modifications for separate and coupled diffusion in the gas and liquid phases have also been completed. The results from the DGM are compared to the Fick's law behavior for TCE and PCE diffusion across a capillary fringe. The differences are small due to the relatively high permeability (k= 10(sup -11) m(sup 2)) of the problem and the small mole fraction of the gases. Additional comparisons for lower permeabilities and higher mole fractions may be useful

  3. A model-based analysis of a simplified beam-specific dose output in proton therapy with a single-ring wobbling system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kase, Yuki; Yamashita, Haruo; Numano, Masumi; Sakama, Makoto; Mizota, Manabu; Maeda, Yoshikazu; Tameshige, Yuji; Murayama, Shigeyuki

    2015-01-07

    In radiation therapy, it is necessary to preset a monitor unit in an irradiation control system to deliver a prescribed absolute dose to a reference point in the planning target volume. The purpose of this study was to develop a model-based monitor unit calculation method for proton-beam therapy with a single-ring wobbling system. The absorbed dose at a calibration point per monitor unit had been measured for each beam-specific measurement condition without a patient-specific collimator or range compensator before proton therapeutic irradiation at Shizuoka Cancer Center. In this paper, we propose a simplified dose output model to obtain the output ratio between a beam-specific dose and a reference field dose, from which a monitor unit for the proton treatment could be derived without beam-specific measurements. The model parameters were determined to fit some typical data measured in a proton treatment room, called a Gantry 1 course. Then, the model calculation was compared with 5456 dose output ratios that had been measured for 150-, 190- and 220 MeV therapeutic proton beams in two treatment rooms over the past decade. The mean value and standard deviation of the difference between the measurement and the model calculation were respectively 0.00% and 0.27% for the Gantry 1 course, and -0.25% and 0.35% for the Gantry 2 course. The model calculation was in good agreement with the measured beam-specific doses, within 1%, except for conditions less frequently used for treatment. The small variation for the various beam conditions shows the high long-term reproducibility of the measurement and high degree of compatibility of the two treatment rooms. Therefore, the model was expected to assure the setting value of the dose monitor for treatment, to save the effort required for beam-specific measurement, and to predict the dose output for new beam conditions in the future.

  4. Numerical Acoustic Models Including Viscous and Thermal losses: Review of Existing and New Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Peter Risby; Cutanda Henriquez, Vicente; Aage, Niels

    2017-01-01

    This work presents an updated overview of numerical methods including acoustic viscous and thermal losses. Numerical modelling of viscothermal losses has gradually become more important due to the general trend of making acoustic devices smaller. Not including viscothermal acoustic losses...... in such numerical computations will therefore lead to inaccurate or even wrong results. Both, Finite Element Method (FEM) and Boundary Element Method (BEM), formulations are available that incorporate these loss mechanisms. Including viscothermal losses in FEM computations can be computationally very demanding, due...... and BEM method including viscothermal dissipation are compared and investigated....

  5. Direct-phase-variable model of a synchronous reluctance motor including all slot and winding harmonics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obe, Emeka S.; Binder, A.

    2011-01-01

    A detailed model in direct-phase variables of a synchronous reluctance motor operating at mains voltage and frequency is presented. The model includes the stator and rotor slot openings, the actual winding layout and the reluctance rotor geometry. Hence, all mmf and permeance harmonics are taken into account. It is seen that non-negligible harmonics introduced by slots are present in the inductances computed by the winding function procedure. These harmonics are usually ignored in d-q models. The machine performance is simulated in the stator reference frame to depict the difference between this new direct-phase model including all harmonics and the conventional rotor reference frame d-q model. Saturation is included by using a polynomial fitting the variation of d-axis inductance with stator current obtained by finite-element software FEMAG DC (registered) . The detailed phase-variable model can yield torque pulsations comparable to those obtained from finite elements while the d-q model cannot.

  6. Optimization of the output of a solar cell per theoretical and experimental study of the models to one and two exponential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benyoucef B.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The production of electricity based on the conversion of the sunlight by photovoltaic cells containing crystalline silicon is the way most used on the technological and industrial level Consequently, the development of the terrestrial applications for the energy production requires high-output cells and low cost.The aim of our work is to present a comparative study between both theoretical and experimental models of a solar cell based silicon type PHYWE (connecting four cells in series of 80 mm diameter to improve photovoltaic performance.This study led to the determination of the parameters of the cell starting from the current-voltage characteristic, the influence of luminous flow on this characteristic as well as the effect of the incidental photons on the solar cell. We justify the interest to use the model with two exponential for the optimization of the output by underlining the insufficiency of the model to one exponential.

  7. Coupled modeling of land hydrology–regional climate including human carbon emission and water exploitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Hui Xie

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Carbon emissions and water use are two major kinds of human activities. To reveal whether these two activities can modify the hydrological cycle and climate system in China, we conducted two sets of numerical experiments using regional climate model RegCM4. In the first experiment used to study the climatic responses to human carbon emissions, the model were configured over entire China because the impacts of carbon emissions can be detected across the whole country. Results from the first experiment revealed that near-surface air temperature may significantly increase from 2007 to 2059 at a rate exceeding 0.1 °C per decade in most areas across the country; southwestern and southeastern China also showed increasing trends in summer precipitation, with rates exceeding 10 mm per decade over the same period. In summer, only northern China showed an increasing trend of evapotranspiration, with increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade; in winter, increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade were observed in most regions. These effects are believed to be caused by global warming from human carbon emissions. In the second experiment used to study the effects of human water use, the model were configured over a limited region—Haihe River Basin in the northern China, because compared with the human carbon emissions, the effects of human water use are much more local and regional, and the Haihe River Basin is the most typical region in China that suffers from both intensive human groundwater exploitation and surface water diversion. We incorporated a scheme of human water regulation into RegCM4 and conducted the second experiment. Model outputs showed that the groundwater table severely declined by ∼10 m in 1971–2000 through human groundwater over-exploitation in the basin; in fact, current conditions are so extreme that even reducing the pumping rate by half cannot eliminate the groundwater depletion cones observed in the area

  8. Analysis of urban metabolic processes based on input-output method: model development and a case study for Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Liu, Hong; Chen, Bin; Zheng, Hongmei; Li, Yating

    2014-06-01

    Discovering ways in which to increase the sustainability of the metabolic processes involved in urbanization has become an urgent task for urban design and management in China. As cities are analogous to living organisms, the disorders of their metabolic processes can be regarded as the cause of "urban disease". Therefore, identification of these causes through metabolic process analysis and ecological element distribution through the urban ecosystem's compartments will be helpful. By using Beijing as an example, we have compiled monetary input-output tables from 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007 and calculated the intensities of the embodied ecological elements to compile the corresponding implied physical input-output tables. We then divided Beijing's economy into 32 compartments and analyzed the direct and indirect ecological intensities embodied in the flows of ecological elements through urban metabolic processes. Based on the combination of input-output tables and ecological network analysis, the description of multiple ecological elements transferred among Beijing's industrial compartments and their distribution has been refined. This hybrid approach can provide a more scientific basis for management of urban resource flows. In addition, the data obtained from distribution characteristics of ecological elements may provide a basic data platform for exploring the metabolic mechanism of Beijing.

  9. Modeling of Temperature-Dependent Noise in Silicon Nanowire FETs including Self-Heating Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Anandan, P.; Malathi, N.; Mohankumar, N.

    2014-01-01

    Silicon nanowires are leading the CMOS era towards the downsizing limit and its nature will be effectively suppress the short channel effects. Accurate modeling of thermal noise in nanowires is crucial for RF applications of nano-CMOS emerging technologies. In this work, a perfect temperature-dependent model for silicon nanowires including the self-heating effects has been derived and its effects on device parameters have been observed. The power spectral density as a function of thermal resi...

  10. Dipole model analysis of highest precision HERA data, including very low Q2's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luszczak, A.; Kowalski, H.

    2016-12-01

    We analyse, within a dipole model, the final, inclusive HERA DIS cross section data in the low χ region, using fully correlated errors. We show, that these highest precision data are very well described within the dipole model framework starting from Q 2 values of 3.5 GeV 2 to the highest values of Q 2 =250 GeV 2 . To analyze the saturation effects we evaluated the data including also the very low 0.35including this region show a preference of the saturation ansatz.

  11. The No-Core Gamow Shell Model: Including the continuum in the NCSM

    CERN Document Server

    Barrett, B R; Michel, N; Płoszajczak, M

    2015-01-01

    We are witnessing an era of intense experimental efforts that will provide information about the properties of nuclei far from the line of stability, regarding resonant and scattering states as well as (weakly) bound states. This talk describes our formalism for including these necessary ingredients into the No-Core Shell Model by using the Gamow Shell Model approach. Applications of this new approach, known as the No-Core Gamow Shell Model, both to benchmark cases as well as to unstable nuclei will be given.

  12. Conceptualizing a Dynamic Fall Risk Model Including Intrinsic Risks and Exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klenk, Jochen; Becker, Clemens; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Schwickert, Lars; Rapp, Kilan; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Todd, Chris; Lord, Stephen R; Kerse, Ngaire

    2017-11-01

    Falls are a major cause of injury and disability in older people, leading to serious health and social consequences including fractures, poor quality of life, loss of independence, and institutionalization. To design and provide adequate prevention measures, accurate understanding and identification of person's individual fall risk is important. However, to date, the performance of fall risk models is weak compared with models estimating, for example, cardiovascular risk. This deficiency may result from 2 factors. First, current models consider risk factors to be stable for each person and not change over time, an assumption that does not reflect real-life experience. Second, current models do not consider the interplay of individual exposure including type of activity (eg, walking, undertaking transfers) and environmental risks (eg, lighting, floor conditions) in which activity is performed. Therefore, we posit a dynamic fall risk model consisting of intrinsic risk factors that vary over time and exposure (activity in context). eHealth sensor technology (eg, smartphones) begins to enable the continuous measurement of both the above factors. We illustrate our model with examples of real-world falls from the FARSEEING database. This dynamic framework for fall risk adds important aspects that may improve understanding of fall mechanisms, fall risk models, and the development of fall prevention interventions. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Modeling of cylindrical surrounding gate MOSFETs including the fringing field effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Santosh K.; Baishya, Srimanta

    2013-01-01

    A physically based analytical model for surface potential and threshold voltage including the fringing gate capacitances in cylindrical surround gate (CSG) MOSFETs has been developed. Based on this a subthreshold drain current model has also been derived. This model first computes the charge induced in the drain/source region due to the fringing capacitances and considers an effective charge distribution in the cylindrically extended source/drain region for the development of a simple and compact model. The fringing gate capacitances taken into account are outer fringe capacitance, inner fringe capacitance, overlap capacitance, and sidewall capacitance. The model has been verified with the data extracted from 3D TCAD simulations of CSG MOSFETs and was found to be working satisfactorily. (semiconductor devices)

  14. The Watts-Strogatz network model developed by including degree distribution: theory and computer simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y W; Zhang, L F; Huang, J P

    2007-01-01

    By using theoretical analysis and computer simulations, we develop the Watts-Strogatz network model by including degree distribution, in an attempt to improve the comparison between characteristic path lengths and clustering coefficients predicted by the original Watts-Strogatz network model and those of the real networks with the small-world property. Good agreement between the predictions of the theoretical analysis and those of the computer simulations has been shown. It is found that the developed Watts-Strogatz network model can fit the real small-world networks more satisfactorily. Some other interesting results are also reported by adjusting the parameters in a model degree-distribution function. The developed Watts-Strogatz network model is expected to help in the future analysis of various social problems as well as financial markets with the small-world property

  15. Climatic change on the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America) using two-step statistical downscaling of CMIP5 model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribalaygua, Jaime; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

    2018-05-01

    A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method's performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak).

  16. Including Effects of Water Stress on Dead Organic Matter Decay to a Forest Carbon Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Lee, J.; Han, S. H.; Kim, S.; Son, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Decay of dead organic matter is a key process of carbon (C) cycling in forest ecosystems. The change in decay rate depends on temperature sensitivity and moisture conditions. The Forest Biomass and Dead organic matter Carbon (FBDC) model includes a decay sub-model considering temperature sensitivity, yet does not consider moisture conditions as drivers of the decay rate change. This study aimed to improve the FBDC model by including a water stress function to the decay sub-model. Also, soil C sequestration under climate change with the FBDC model including the water stress function was simulated. The water stress functions were determined with data from decomposition study on Quercus variabilis forests and Pinus densiflora forests of Korea, and adjustment parameters of the functions were determined for both species. The water stress functions were based on the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Including the water stress function increased the explained variances of the decay rate by 19% for the Q. variabilis forests and 7% for the P. densiflora forests, respectively. The increase of the explained variances resulted from large difference in temperature range and precipitation range across the decomposition study plots. During the period of experiment, the mean annual temperature range was less than 3°C, while the annual precipitation ranged from 720mm to 1466mm. Application of the water stress functions to the FBDC model constrained increasing trend of temperature sensitivity under climate change, and thus increased the model-estimated soil C sequestration (Mg C ha-1) by 6.6 for the Q. variabilis forests and by 3.1 for the P. densiflora forests, respectively. The addition of water stress functions increased reliability of the decay rate estimation and could contribute to reducing the bias in estimating soil C sequestration under varying moisture condition. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by Korea Forest Service (2017044B10-1719-BB01)

  17. Including an ocean carbon cycle model into iLOVECLIM (v1.0)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouttes, N.; Roche, D.M.V.A.P.; Mariotti, V.; Bopp, L.

    2015-01-01

    The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration plays a crucial role in the radiative balance and as such has a strong influence on the evolution of climate. Because of the numerous interactions between climate and the carbon cycle, it is necessary to include a model of the carbon cycle within a

  18. An imprecise Dirichlet model for Bayesian analysis of failure data including right-censored observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.

    1997-01-01

    This paper is intended to make researchers in reliability theory aware of a recently introduced Bayesian model with imprecise prior distributions for statistical inference on failure data, that can also be considered as a robust Bayesian model. The model consists of a multinomial distribution with Dirichlet priors, making the approach basically nonparametric. New results for the model are presented, related to right-censored observations, where estimation based on this model is closely related to the product-limit estimator, which is an important statistical method to deal with reliability or survival data including right-censored observations. As for the product-limit estimator, the model considered in this paper aims at not using any information other than that provided by observed data, but our model fits into the robust Bayesian context which has the advantage that all inferences can be based on probabilities or expectations, or bounds for probabilities or expectations. The model uses a finite partition of the time-axis, and as such it is also related to life-tables

  19. MEMLS3&a: Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks adapted to include backscattering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Proksch

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS was originally developed for microwave emissions of snowpacks in the frequency range 5–100 GHz. It is based on six-flux theory to describe radiative transfer in snow including absorption, multiple volume scattering, radiation trapping due to internal reflection and a combination of coherent and incoherent superposition of reflections between horizontal layer interfaces. Here we introduce MEMLS3&a, an extension of MEMLS, which includes a backscatter model for active microwave remote sensing of snow. The reflectivity is decomposed into diffuse and specular components. Slight undulations of the snow surface are taken into account. The treatment of like- and cross-polarization is accomplished by an empirical splitting parameter q. MEMLS3&a (as well as MEMLS is set up in a way that snow input parameters can be derived by objective measurement methods which avoid fitting procedures of the scattering efficiency of snow, required by several other models. For the validation of the model we have used a combination of active and passive measurements from the NoSREx (Nordic Snow Radar Experiment campaign in Sodankylä, Finland. We find a reasonable agreement between the measurements and simulations, subject to uncertainties in hitherto unmeasured input parameters of the backscatter model. The model is written in Matlab and the code is publicly available for download through the following website: http://www.iapmw.unibe.ch/research/projects/snowtools/memls.html.

  20. Steady-state analysis of activated sludge processes with a settler model including sludge compression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diehl, S; Zambrano, J; Carlsson, B

    2016-01-01

    A reduced model of a completely stirred-tank bioreactor coupled to a settling tank with recycle is analyzed in its steady states. In the reactor, the concentrations of one dominant particulate biomass and one soluble substrate component are modelled. While the biomass decay rate is assumed to be constant, growth kinetics can depend on both substrate and biomass concentrations, and optionally model substrate inhibition. Compressive and hindered settling phenomena are included using the Bürger-Diehl settler model, which consists of a partial differential equation. Steady-state solutions of this partial differential equation are obtained from an ordinary differential equation, making steady-state analysis of the entire plant difficult. A key result showing that the ordinary differential equation can be replaced with an approximate algebraic equation simplifies model analysis. This algebraic equation takes the location of the sludge-blanket during normal operation into account, allowing for the limiting flux capacity caused by compressive settling to easily be included in the steady-state mass balance equations for the entire plant system. This novel approach grants the possibility of more realistic solutions than other previously published reduced models, comprised of yet simpler settler assumptions. The steady-state concentrations, solids residence time, and the wastage flow ratio are functions of the recycle ratio. Solutions are shown for various growth kinetics; with different values of biomass decay rate, influent volumetric flow, and substrate concentration. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Finite Control Set–Model Predictive Control with Modulation to Mitigate Harmonic Component in Output Current for a Grid-Connected Inverter under Distorted Grid Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Tien Hai Nguyen; Kyeong-Hwa Kim

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents an improved current control strategy for a three-phase grid-connected inverter under distorted grid conditions. In terms of performance, it is important for a grid-connected inverter to maintain the harmonic contents of inverter output currents below the specified limit even when the grid is subject to harmonic distortion. To address this problem, this paper proposes a modulated finite control set–model predictive control (FCS-MPC) scheme, which effectively mitigates the h...

  2. Extraction of Vertical Profiles of Atmospheric Variables from Gridded Binary, Edition 2 (GRIB2) Model Output Files

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-18

    3 contains values of the listed variables for the height layers of a METCM for the sounding of Table 2 (ETGB). Wind direction is in tens of mils and...6400 mils = 360° = 640 tens of mils. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 6 Table 3 Output with the same height structure as... tens of mils) Wind speed (kt) Virt temp (K*10) Pressure (mb) Temperature (K*10) 0 0 297 17 2920 991 2902 1 200 305 23 2915 980 2898 2 500

  3. A series approximation model for optical light transport and output intensity field distribution in large aspect ratio cylindrical scintillation crystals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tobias, Benjamin John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2018-01-09

    A series approximation has been derived for the transport of optical photons within a cylindrically symmetric light pipe and applied to the task of evaluating both the origin and angular distribution of light reaching the output plane. This analytic expression finds particular utility in first-pass photonic design applications since it may be evaluated at a very modest computational cost and is readily parameterized for relevant design constraints. It has been applied toward quantitative exploration of various scintillation crystal preparations and their impact on both quantum efficiency and noise, reproducing sensible dependencies and providing physical justification for certain gamma ray camera design choices.

  4. A roller chain drive model including contact with guide-bars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Sine Leergaard; Hansen, John Michael; Ambrósio, J. A. C.

    2004-01-01

    as continuous force. The model of the roller-chain drive now proposed departs from an earlier model where two contact/impact methods are proposed to describe the contact between the rollers of the chain and the teeth of the sprockets. These different formulations are based on unilateral constraints....... In the continuous force method the roller-sprocket contact, is represented by forces applied on each seated roller and in the respective sprocket teeth. These forces are functions of the pseudo penetrations between roller and sprocket, impacting velocities and a restitution coefficient. In the continuous force......A model of a roller chain drive is developed and applied to the simulation and analysis of roller chain drives of large marine diesel engines. The model includes the impact with guide-bars that are the motion delimiter components on the chain strands between the sprockets. The main components...

  5. Prospects for genetically modified non-human primate models, including the common marmoset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Erika

    2015-04-01

    Genetically modified mice have contributed much to studies in the life sciences. In some research fields, however, mouse models are insufficient for analyzing the molecular mechanisms of pathology or as disease models. Often, genetically modified non-human primate (NHP) models are desired, as they are more similar to human physiology, morphology, and anatomy. Recent progress in studies of the reproductive biology in NHPs has enabled the introduction of exogenous genes into NHP genomes or the alteration of endogenous NHP genes. This review summarizes recent progress in the production of genetically modified NHPs, including the common marmoset, and future perspectives for realizing genetically modified NHP models for use in life sciences research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

  6. Robust model reference adaptive output feedback tracking for uncertain linear systems with actuator fault based on reinforced dead-zone modification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagherpoor, H M; Salmasi, Farzad R

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, robust model reference adaptive tracking controllers are considered for Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) and Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) linear systems containing modeling uncertainties, unknown additive disturbances and actuator fault. Two new lemmas are proposed for both SISO and MIMO, under which dead-zone modification rule is improved such that the tracking error for any reference signal tends to zero in such systems. In the conventional approach, adaption of the controller parameters is ceased inside the dead-zone region which results tracking error, while preserving the system stability. In the proposed scheme, control signal is reinforced with an additive term based on tracking error inside the dead-zone which results in full reference tracking. In addition, no Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) unit is needed in the proposed approach. Closed loop system stability and zero tracking error are proved by considering a suitable Lyapunov functions candidate. It is shown that the proposed control approach can assure that all the signals of the close loop system are bounded in faulty conditions. Finally, validity and performance of the new schemes have been illustrated through numerical simulations of SISO and MIMO systems in the presence of actuator faults, modeling uncertainty and output disturbance. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Global Reference Atmospheric Models, Including Thermospheres, for Mars, Venus and Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justh, Hilary L.; Justus, C. G.; Keller, Vernon W.

    2006-01-01

    This document is the viewgraph slides of the presentation. Marshall Space Flight Center's Natural Environments Branch has developed Global Reference Atmospheric Models (GRAMs) for Mars, Venus, Earth, and other solar system destinations. Mars-GRAM has been widely used for engineering applications including systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for aerobraking, entry descent and landing, and aerocapture. Preliminary results are presented, comparing Mars-GRAM with measurements from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) during its aerobraking in Mars thermosphere. Venus-GRAM is based on the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Venus International Reference Atmosphere (VIRA), and is suitable for similar engineering applications in the thermosphere or other altitude regions of the atmosphere of Venus. Until recently, the thermosphere in Earth-GRAM has been represented by the Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET) model. Earth-GRAM has recently been revised. In addition to including an updated version of MET, it now includes an option to use the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter Radar Extended Model (NRLMSISE-00) as an alternate thermospheric model. Some characteristics and results from Venus-GRAM and Earth-GRAM thermospheres are also presented.

  8. A numerical model including PID control of a multizone crystal growth furnace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzarella, Charles H.; Kassemi, Mohammad

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a 2D axisymmetric combined conduction and radiation model of a multizone crystal growth furnace. The model is based on a programmable multizone furnace (PMZF) designed and built at NASA Lewis Research Center for growing high quality semiconductor crystals. A novel feature of this model is a control algorithm which automatically adjusts the power in any number of independently controlled heaters to establish the desired crystal temperatures in the furnace model. The control algorithm eliminates the need for numerous trial and error runs previously required to obtain the same results. The finite element code, FIDAP, used to develop the furnace model, was modified to directly incorporate the control algorithm. This algorithm, which presently uses PID control, and the associated heat transfer model are briefly discussed. Together, they have been used to predict the heater power distributions for a variety of furnace configurations and desired temperature profiles. Examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the PID controlled model in establishing isothermal, Bridgman, and other complicated temperature profies in the sample. Finally, an example is given to show how the algorithm can be used to change the desired profile with time according to a prescribed temperature-time evolution.

  9. A New Circuit Model for Spin-Torque Oscillator Including Perpendicular Torque of Magnetic Tunnel Junction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyein Lim

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Spin-torque oscillator (STO is a promising new technology for the future RF oscillators, which is based on the spin-transfer torque (STT effect in magnetic multilayered nanostructure. It is expected to provide a larger tunability, smaller size, lower power consumption, and higher level of integration than the semiconductor-based oscillators. In our previous work, a circuit-level model of the giant magnetoresistance (GMR STO was proposed. In this paper, we present a physics-based circuit-level model of the magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ-based STO. MTJ-STO model includes the effect of perpendicular torque that has been ignored in the GMR-STO model. The variations of three major characteristics, generation frequency, mean oscillation power, and generation linewidth of an MTJ-STO with respect to the amount of perpendicular torque, are investigated, and the results are applied to our model. The operation of the model was verified by HSPICE simulation, and the results show an excellent agreement with the experimental data. The results also prove that a full circuit-level simulation with MJT-STO devices can be made with our proposed model.

  10. Including Finite Surface Span Effects in Empirical Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Clifford A.

    2016-01-01

    The effect of finite span on the jet-surface interaction noise source and the jet mixing noise shielding and reflection effects is considered using recently acquired experimental data. First, the experimental setup and resulting data are presented with particular attention to the role of surface span on far-field noise. These effects are then included in existing empirical models that have previously assumed that all surfaces are semi-infinite. This extended abstract briefly describes the experimental setup and data leaving the empirical modeling aspects for the final paper.

  11. The use of output-dependent data scaling with artificial neural networks and multilinear regression for modeling of ciprofloxacin removal from aqueous solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulaş Yurtsever

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, an experimental system entailing ciprofloxacin hydrochloride (CIP removal from aqueous solution is modeled by using artificial neural networks (ANNs. For modeling of CIP removal from aqueous solution using bentonite and activated carbon, we utilized the combination of output-dependent data scaling (ODDS with ANN, and the combination of ODDS with multivariable linear regression model (MVLR. The ANN model normalized via ODDS performs better in comparison with the ANN model scaled via standard normalization. Four distinct hybrid models, ANN with standard normalization, ANN with ODDS, MVLR with standard normalization, and MVLR with ODDS, were also applied. We observed that ANN and MVLR estimations’ consistency, accuracy ratios and model performances increase as a result of pre-processing with ODDS.

  12. Feedback of Deep Moist Convection to Its Near Environment as Diagnosed from Three-Dimensional Numerical Model Output. Results from an Early Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlesinger, Rosert E.

    1990-06-01

    This paper presents preliminary results from an investigation into the feedback between convective storms and their new surroundings, using output from a three-dimensional anelastic cloud-scale model. Convective feedback budgets for heat, moisture and horizontal momentum are diagnosed from horizontally Reynolds-averaged governing equations, analogous to the theory of Anthes. There is limited horizontal scale separation between the active convection area and the averaging area, which at 30 km on a side is comparable to one grid cell of a typical mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.The simulation is run with an idealized midlatitude severe thunderstorm sounding. The resulting storm displays several supercell features. These include a vigorous erect large-diameter updraft that splits at lower levels, a vaulted weak echo region in the lower part of the main (right flank) updraft core, and a midlevel mesovortex couplet with cyclonic vorticity in the main updraft.The vertical profiles of the various budget terms show several findings of potential relevance to cumulus parameterization. The vertical eddy transport (flux divergence) is highly important to each budget; it significantly raises the height of the maximum apparent heat source and lowers the height of the maximum apparent moisture sink, and acts to reduce the net tropospheric vertical wind shear. At the same time, the horizontal eddy momentum transport and the mean horizontal pressure gradient force both act strongly to sharpen the tropopause-level jet, so that the net shear is little changed. The horizontal eddy transport is much less important to the heat budget, and remains negligible for moisture. Mean storage contributes significantly to the apparent source for each budget under consideration. Other terms derived by Anthes but ignored in existing cumulus parameterizations (the resultant of eddy storage, transport of mean fields by the eddy wind, and transport of eddy fields by the mean wind) become

  13. Modeling of Temperature-Dependent Noise in Silicon Nanowire FETs including Self-Heating Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Anandan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Silicon nanowires are leading the CMOS era towards the downsizing limit and its nature will be effectively suppress the short channel effects. Accurate modeling of thermal noise in nanowires is crucial for RF applications of nano-CMOS emerging technologies. In this work, a perfect temperature-dependent model for silicon nanowires including the self-heating effects has been derived and its effects on device parameters have been observed. The power spectral density as a function of thermal resistance shows significant improvement as the channel length decreases. The effects of thermal noise including self-heating of the device are explored. Moreover, significant reduction in noise with respect to channel thermal resistance, gate length, and biasing is analyzed.

  14. Utilizing Free and Open Source Software to access, view and compare in situ observations, EO products and model output data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vines, Aleksander; Hamre, Torill; Lygre, Kjetil

    2014-05-01

    The GreenSeas project (Development of global plankton data base and model system for eco-climate early warning) aims to advance the knowledge and predictive capacities of how marine ecosystems will respond to global change. A main task has been to set up a data delivery and monitoring core service following the open and free data access policy implemented in the Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security (GMES) programme. The aim is to ensure open and free access to historical plankton data, new data (EO products and in situ measurements), model data (including estimates of simulation error) and biological, environmental and climatic indicators to a range of stakeholders, such as scientists, policy makers and environmental managers. To this end, we have developed a geo-spatial database of both historical and new in situ physical, biological and chemical parameters for the Southern Ocean, Atlantic, Nordic Seas and the Arctic, and organized related satellite-derived quantities and model forecasts in a joint geo-spatial repository. For easy access to these data, we have implemented a web-based GIS (Geographical Information Systems) where observed, derived and forcasted parameters can be searched, displayed, compared and exported. Model forecasts can also be uploaded dynamically to the system, to allow modelers to quickly compare their results with available in situ and satellite observations. We have implemented the web-based GIS(Geographical Information Systems) system based on free and open source technologies: Thredds Data Server, ncWMS, GeoServer, OpenLayers, PostGIS, Liferay, Apache Tomcat, PRTree, NetCDF-Java, json-simple, Geotoolkit, Highcharts, GeoExt, MapFish, FileSaver, jQuery, jstree and qUnit. We also wanted to used open standards to communicate between the different services and we use WMS, WFS, netCDF, GML, OPeNDAP, JSON, and SLD. The main advantage we got from using FOSS was that we did not have to invent the wheel all over again, but could use

  15. Producing high-accuracy lattice models from protein atomic coordinates including side chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Martin; Saunders, Rhodri; Smith, Cameron; Backofen, Rolf; Deane, Charlotte M

    2012-01-01

    Lattice models are a common abstraction used in the study of protein structure, folding, and refinement. They are advantageous because the discretisation of space can make extensive protein evaluations computationally feasible. Various approaches to the protein chain lattice fitting problem have been suggested but only a single backbone-only tool is available currently. We introduce LatFit, a new tool to produce high-accuracy lattice protein models. It generates both backbone-only and backbone-side-chain models in any user defined lattice. LatFit implements a new distance RMSD-optimisation fitting procedure in addition to the known coordinate RMSD method. We tested LatFit's accuracy and speed using a large nonredundant set of high resolution proteins (SCOP database) on three commonly used lattices: 3D cubic, face-centred cubic, and knight's walk. Fitting speed compared favourably to other methods and both backbone-only and backbone-side-chain models show low deviation from the original data (~1.5 Å RMSD in the FCC lattice). To our knowledge this represents the first comprehensive study of lattice quality for on-lattice protein models including side chains while LatFit is the only available tool for such models.

  16. A High-Rate, Single-Crystal Model including Phase Transformations, Plastic Slip, and Twinning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Addessio, Francis L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Bronkhorst, Curt Allan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Bolme, Cynthia Anne [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Explosive Science and Shock Physics Division; Brown, Donald William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Cerreta, Ellen Kathleen [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Lebensohn, Ricardo A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Lookman, Turab [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Luscher, Darby Jon [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Mayeur, Jason Rhea [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Theoretical Division; Morrow, Benjamin M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Materials Science and Technology Division; Rigg, Paulo A. [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States). Dept. of Physics. Inst. for Shock Physics

    2016-08-09

    An anisotropic, rate-­dependent, single-­crystal approach for modeling materials under the conditions of high strain rates and pressures is provided. The model includes the effects of large deformations, nonlinear elasticity, phase transformations, and plastic slip and twinning. It is envisioned that the model may be used to examine these coupled effects on the local deformation of materials that are subjected to ballistic impact or explosive loading. The model is formulated using a multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient. A plate impact experiment on a multi-­crystal sample of titanium was conducted. The particle velocities at the back surface of three crystal orientations relative to the direction of impact were measured. Molecular dynamics simulations were conducted to investigate the details of the high-­rate deformation and pursue issues related to the phase transformation for titanium. Simulations using the single crystal model were conducted and compared to the high-­rate experimental data for the impact loaded single crystals. The model was found to capture the features of the experiments.

  17. Modeling and analysis of the affinity filtration process, including broth feeding, washing, and elution steps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, L Z; Dong, X Y; Sun, Y

    1998-01-01

    Affinity filtration is a developing protein purification technique that combines the high selectivity of affinity chromatography and the high processing speed of membrane filtration. In this work a lumped kinetic model was developed to describe the whole affinity filtration process, including broth feeding, contaminant washing, and elution steps. Affinity filtration experiments were conducted to evaluate the model using bovine serum albumin as a model protein and a highly substituted Blue Sepharose as an affinity adsorbent. The model with nonadjustable parameters agreed fairly to the experimental results. Thus, the performance of the affinity filtration in processing a crude broth containing contaminant proteins was analyzed by computer simulations using the lumped model. The simulation results show that there is an optimal protein loading for obtaining the maximum recovery yield of the desired protein with a constant purity at each operating condition. The concentration of a crude broth is beneficial in increasing the recovery yield of the desired protein. Using a constant amount of the affinity adsorbent, the recovery yield can be enhanced by decreasing the solution volume in the stirred tank due to the increase of the adsorbent weight fraction. It was found that the lumped kinetic model was simple and useful in analyzing the whole affinity filtration process.

  18. Model for safety reports including descriptive examples; Mall foer saekerhetsrapporter med beskrivande exempel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    Several safety reports will be produced in the process of planning and constructing the system for disposal of high-level radioactive waste in Sweden. The present report gives a model, with detailed examples, of how these reports should be organized and what steps they should include. In the near future safety reports will deal with the encapsulation plant and the repository. Later reports will treat operation of the handling systems and the repository.

  19. Collisional-radiative model including recombination processes for W27+ ion★

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Izumi; Sasaki, Akira; Kato, Daiji; Koike, Fumihiro

    2017-10-01

    We have constructed a collisional-radiative (CR) model for W27+ ions including 226 configurations with n ≤ 9 and ł ≤ 5 for spectroscopic diagnostics. We newly include recombination processes in the model and this is the first result of extreme ultraviolet spectrum calculated for recombining plasma component. Calculated spectra in 40-70 Å range in ionizing and recombining plasma components show similar 3 strong lines and 1 line weak in recombining plasma component at 45-50 Å and many weak lines at 50-65 Å for both components. Recombination processes do not contribute much to the spectrum at around 60 Å for W27+ ion. Dielectronic satellite lines are also minor contribution to the spectrum of recombining plasma component. Dielectronic recombination (DR) rate coefficient from W28+ to W27+ ions is also calculated with the same atomic data in the CR model. We found that larger set of energy levels including many autoionizing states gave larger DR rate coefficients but our rate agree within factor 6 with other works at electron temperature around 1 keV in which W27+ and W28+ ions are usually observed in plasmas. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Atomic and Molecular Data and their Applications", edited by Gordon W.F. Drake, Jung-Sik Yoon, Daiji Kato, and Grzegorz Karwasz.

  20. A 3D model of the oculomotor plant including the pulley system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viegener, A.; Armentano, R. L.

    2007-11-01

    Early models of the oculomotor plant only considered the eye globes and the muscles that move them. Recently, connective tissue structures have been found enveloping the extraocular muscles (EOMs) and firmly anchored to the orbital wall. These structures act as pulleys; they determine the functional origin of the EOMs and, in consequence, their effective pulling direction. A three dimensional model of the oculomotor plant, including pulleys, has been developed and simulations in Simulink were performed during saccadic eye movements. Listing's law was implemented based on the supposition that there exists an eye orientation related signal. The inclusion of the pulleys in the model makes this assumption plausible and simplifies the problem of the plant noncommutativity.

  1. AN EQUILIBRIUM AGGREGATE DEMAND AND SUPPLY MODEL TO EXAMINE THE DYNAMIC EFFECT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN IRAN AS AN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajjad Barkordari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Iran is an oil exporting country in Middle East. The high share of the oil revenues in Iran is a serious economic problem. Due to the high dependency of Iran’s economy on oil revenues, oil price shocks have a determinant impact on macroeconomic variables. In this paper, we analyze the dynamic effects of oil price shocks and the aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Iran. According to macroeconomic theory and aggregate demand and supply model in equilibrium, a structural vector autoregressive (VAR model is applied to identify different structural shocks and further assess the relative contributions of different shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations, using a decomposition approach. The results show that oil price shocks have significant and positive effects on both output and inflation. Aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks are the main causes of fluctuation in output and inflation, and moreover, the effect of aggregate supply shocks on output is permanent in the Iranian economy. On the base of this study results, we suggest the Iranian government should accelerate the economic reforms such as the finance system of state owned enterprises, the tax system, the cash subsidy distribution system, the allocation system of the government budget in national and provincial level, the financial and banking system, and so on. The suggested reforms aim to decrease in the share of oil revenues in the economy and protect the Iranian economy in the face of any exogenous and endogenous shocks.

  2. Modeling the distribution of ammonia across Europe including bi-directional surface–atmosphere exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Wichink Kruit

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A large shortcoming of current chemistry transport models (CTM for simulating the fate of ammonia in the atmosphere is the lack of a description of the bi-directional surface–atmosphere exchange. In this paper, results of an update of the surface–atmosphere exchange module DEPAC, i.e. DEPosition of Acidifying Compounds, in the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS are discussed. It is shown that with the new description, which includes bi-directional surface–atmosphere exchange, the modeled ammonia concentrations increase almost everywhere, in particular in agricultural source areas. The reason is that by using a compensation point the ammonia lifetime and transport distance is increased. As a consequence, deposition of ammonia and ammonium decreases in agricultural source areas, while it increases in large nature areas and remote regions especially in southern Scandinavia. The inclusion of a compensation point for water reduces the dry deposition over sea and allows reproducing the observed marine background concentrations at coastal locations to a better extent. A comparison with measurements shows that the model results better represent the measured ammonia concentrations. The concentrations in nature areas are slightly overestimated, while the concentrations in agricultural source areas are still underestimated. Although the introduction of the compensation point improves the model performance, the modeling of ammonia remains challenging. Important aspects are emission patterns in space and time as well as a proper approach to deal with the high concentration gradients in relation to model resolution. In short, the inclusion of a bi-directional surface–atmosphere exchange is a significant step forward for modeling ammonia.

  3. Including policy and management in socio-hydrology models: initial conceptualizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Leon; Korbee, Dorien

    2017-04-01

    Socio-hydrology studies the interactions in coupled human-water systems. So far, the use of dynamic models that capture the direct feedback between societal and hydrological systems has been dominant. What has not yet been included with any particular emphasis, is the policy or management layer, which is a central element in for instance integrated water resources management (IWRM) or adaptive delta management (ADM). Studying the direct interactions between human-water systems generates knowledges that eventually helps influence these interactions in ways that may ensure better outcomes - for society and for the health and sustainability of water systems. This influence sometimes occurs through spontaneous emergence, uncoordinated by societal agents - private sector, citizens, consumers, water users. However, the term 'management' in IWRM and ADM also implies an additional coordinated attempt through various public actors. This contribution is a call to include the policy and management dimension more prominently into the research focus of the socio-hydrology field, and offers first conceptual variables that should be considered in attempts to include this policy or management layer in socio-hydrology models. This is done by drawing on existing frameworks to study policy processes throughout both planning and implementation phases. These include frameworks such as the advocacy coalition framework, collective learning and policy arrangements, which all emphasis longer-term dynamics and feedbacks between actor coalitions in strategic planning and implementation processes. A case about longter-term dynamics in the management of the Haringvliet in the Netherlands is used to illustrate the paper.

  4. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  5. Modelling of Water Cooled Fuel Including Design Basis and Severe Accidents. Proceedings of a Technical Meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    The demands on nuclear fuel have recently been increasing, and include transient regimes, higher discharge burnup and longer fuel cycles. This has resulted in an increase of loads on fuel and core internals. In order to satisfy these demands while ensuring compliance with safety criteria, new national and international programmes have been launched and advanced modelling codes are being developed. The Fukushima Daiichi accident has particularly demonstrated the need for adequate analysis of all aspects of fuel performance to prevent a failure and also to predict fuel behaviour were an accident to occur.This publication presents the Proceedings of the Technical Meeting on Modelling of Water Cooled Fuel Including Design Basis and Severe Accidents, which was hosted by the Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC) in Chengdu, China, following the recommendation made in 2013 at the IAEA Technical Working Group on Fuel Performance and Technology. This recommendation was in agreement with IAEA mid-term initiatives, linked to the post-Fukushima IAEA Nuclear Safety Action Plan, as well as the forthcoming Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Fuel Modelling in Accident Conditions. At the technical meeting in Chengdu, major areas and physical phenomena, as well as types of code and experiment to be studied and used in the CRP, were discussed. The technical meeting provided a forum for international experts to review the state of the art of code development for modelling fuel performance of nuclear fuel for water cooled reactors with regard to steady state and transient conditions, and for design basis and early phases of severe accidents, including experimental support for code validation. A round table discussion focused on the needs and perspectives on fuel modelling in accident conditions. This meeting was the ninth in a series of IAEA meetings, which reflects Member States’ continuing interest in nuclear fuel issues. The previous meetings were held in 1980 (jointly with

  6. Input-output maps are strongly biased towards simple outputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingle, Kamaludin; Camargo, Chico Q; Louis, Ard A

    2018-02-22

    Many systems in nature can be described using discrete input-output maps. Without knowing details about a map, there may seem to be no a priori reason to expect that a randomly chosen input would be more likely to generate one output over another. Here, by extending fundamental results from algorithmic information theory, we show instead that for many real-world maps, the a priori probability P(x) that randomly sampled inputs generate a particular output x decays exponentially with the approximate Kolmogorov complexity [Formula: see text] of that output. These input-output maps are biased towards simplicity. We derive an upper bound P(x) ≲ [Formula: see text], which is tight for most inputs. The constants a and b, as well as many properties of  P(x), can be predicted with minimal knowledge of the map. We explore this strong bias towards simple outputs in systems ranging from the folding of RNA secondary structures to systems of coupled ordinary differential equations to a stochastic financial trading model.

  7. Health Promotion Behavior of Chinese International Students in Korea Including Acculturation Factors: A Structural Equation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Jung; Yoo, Il Young

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to explain the health promotion behavior of Chinese international students in Korea using a structural equation model including acculturation factors. A survey using self-administered questionnaires was employed. Data were collected from 272 Chinese students who have resided in Korea for longer than 6 months. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The p value of final model is .31. The fitness parameters of the final model such as goodness of fit index, adjusted goodness of fit index, normed fit index, non-normed fit index, and comparative fit index were more than .95. Root mean square of residual and root mean square error of approximation also met the criteria. Self-esteem, perceived health status, acculturative stress and acculturation level had direct effects on health promotion behavior of the participants and the model explained 30.0% of variance. The Chinese students in Korea with higher self-esteem, perceived health status, acculturation level, and lower acculturative stress reported higher health promotion behavior. The findings can be applied to develop health promotion strategies for this population. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. A structural model for the in vivo human cornea including collagen-swelling interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xi; Petsche, Steven J; Pinsky, Peter M

    2015-08-06

    A structural model of the in vivo cornea, which accounts for tissue swelling behaviour, for the three-dimensional organization of stromal fibres and for collagen-swelling interaction, is proposed. Modelled as a binary electrolyte gel in thermodynamic equilibrium, the stromal electrostatic free energy is based on the mean-field approximation. To account for active endothelial ionic transport in the in vivo cornea, which modulates osmotic pressure and hydration, stromal mobile ions are shown to satisfy a modified Boltzmann distribution. The elasticity of the stromal collagen network is modelled based on three-dimensional collagen orientation probability distributions for every point in the stroma obtained by synthesizing X-ray diffraction data for azimuthal angle distributions and second harmonic-generated image processing for inclination angle distributions. The model is implemented in a finite-element framework and employed to predict free and confined swelling of stroma in an ionic bath. For the in vivo cornea, the model is used to predict corneal swelling due to increasing intraocular pressure (IOP) and is adapted to model swelling in Fuchs' corneal dystrophy. The biomechanical response of the in vivo cornea to a typical LASIK surgery for myopia is analysed, including tissue fluid pressure and swelling responses. The model provides a new interpretation of the corneal active hydration control (pump-leak) mechanism based on osmotic pressure modulation. The results also illustrate the structural necessity of fibre inclination in stabilizing the corneal refractive surface with respect to changes in tissue hydration and IOP. © 2015 The Author(s).

  9. A satellite relative motion model including J_2 and J_3 via Vinti's intermediary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biria, Ashley D.; Russell, Ryan P.

    2018-03-01

    Vinti's potential is revisited for analytical propagation of the main satellite problem, this time in the context of relative motion. A particular version of Vinti's spheroidal method is chosen that is valid for arbitrary elliptical orbits, encapsulating J_2, J_3, and generally a partial J_4 in an orbit propagation theory without recourse to perturbation methods. As a child of Vinti's solution, the proposed relative motion model inherits these properties. Furthermore, the problem is solved in oblate spheroidal elements, leading to large regions of validity for the linearization approximation. After offering several enhancements to Vinti's solution, including boosts in accuracy and removal of some singularities, the proposed model is derived and subsequently reformulated so that Vinti's solution is piecewise differentiable. While the model is valid for the critical inclination and nonsingular in the element space, singularities remain in the linear transformation from Earth-centered inertial coordinates to spheroidal elements when the eccentricity is zero or for nearly equatorial orbits. The new state transition matrix is evaluated against numerical solutions including the J_2 through J_5 terms for a wide range of chief orbits and separation distances. The solution is also compared with side-by-side simulations of the original Gim-Alfriend state transition matrix, which considers the J_2 perturbation. Code for computing the resulting state transition matrix and associated reference frame and coordinate transformations is provided online as supplementary material.

  10. General hypothesis and shell model for the synthesis of semiconductor nanotubes, including carbon nanotubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad, S. Noor

    2010-09-01

    Semiconductor nanotubes, including carbon nanotubes, have vast potential for new technology development. The fundamental physics and growth kinetics of these nanotubes are still obscured. Various models developed to elucidate the growth suffer from limited applicability. An in-depth investigation of the fundamentals of nanotube growth has, therefore, been carried out. For this investigation, various features of nanotube growth, and the role of the foreign element catalytic agent (FECA) in this growth, have been considered. Observed growth anomalies have been analyzed. Based on this analysis, a new shell model and a general hypothesis have been proposed for the growth. The essential element of the shell model is the seed generated from segregation during growth. The seed structure has been defined, and the formation of droplet from this seed has been described. A modified definition of the droplet exhibiting adhesive properties has also been presented. Various characteristics of the droplet, required for alignment and organization of atoms into tubular forms, have been discussed. Employing the shell model, plausible scenarios for the formation of carbon nanotubes, and the variation in the characteristics of these carbon nanotubes have been articulated. The experimental evidences, for example, for the formation of shell around a core, dipole characteristics of the seed, and the existence of nanopores in the seed, have been presented. They appear to justify the validity of the proposed model. The diversities of nanotube characteristics, fundamentals underlying the creation of bamboo-shaped carbon nanotubes, and the impurity generation on the surface of carbon nanotubes have been elucidated. The catalytic action of FECA on growth has been quantified. The applicability of the proposed model to the nanotube growth by a variety of mechanisms has been elaborated. These mechanisms include the vapor-liquid-solid mechanism, the oxide-assisted growth mechanism, the self

  11. A new model for including the effect of fly ash on biochemical methane potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gertner, Pablo; Huiliñir, César; Pinto-Villegas, Paula; Castillo, Alejandra; Montalvo, Silvio; Guerrero, Lorna

    2017-10-01

    The modelling of the effect of trace elements on anaerobic digestion, and specifically the effect of fly ash, has been scarcely studied. Thus, the present work was aimed at the development of a new function that allows accumulated methane models to predict the effect of FA on the volume of methane accumulation. For this, purpose five fly ash concentrations (10, 25, 50, 250 and 500mg/L) using raw and pre-treated sewage sludge were used to calibrate the new function, while three fly ash concentrations were used (40, 150 and 350mg/L) for validation. Three models for accumulated methane volume (the modified Gompertz equation, the logistic function, and the transfer function) were evaluated. The results showed that methane production increased in the presence of FA when the sewage sludge was not pre-treated, while with pretreated sludge there is inhibition of methane production at FA concentrations higher than 50mg/L. In the calibration of the proposed function, it fits well with the experimental data under all the conditions, including the inhibition and stimulating zones, with the values of the parameters of the methane production models falling in the range of those reported in the literature. For validation experiments, the model succeeded in representing the behavior of new experiments in both the stimulating and inhibiting zones, with NRMSE and R 2 ranging from 0.3577 to 0.03714 and 0.2209 to 0.9911, respectively. Thus, the proposed model is robust and valid for the studied conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A curved multi-component aerosol hygroscopicity model framework: Part 2 – Including organic compounds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O. Topping

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the inclusion of organic particulate material within the Aerosol Diameter Dependent Equilibrium Model (ADDEM framework described in the companion paper applied to inorganic aerosol components. The performance of ADDEM is analysed in terms of its capability to reproduce the behaviour of various organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems using recently published bulk data. Within the modelling architecture already described two separate thermodynamic models are coupled in an additive approach and combined with a method for solving the Kohler equation in order to develop a tool for predicting the water content associated with an aerosol of known inorganic/organic composition and dry size. For development of the organic module, the widely used group contribution method UNIFAC is employed to explicitly deal with the non-ideality in solution. The UNIFAC predictions for components of atmospheric importance were improved considerably by using revised interaction parameters derived from electro-dynamic balance studies. Using such parameters, the model was found to adequately describe mixed systems including 5–6 dicarboxylic acids, down to low relative humidity conditions. By comparison with electrodynamic balance data, it was also found that the model was capable of capturing the behaviour of aqueous aerosols containing Suwannee River Fulvic acid, a structure previously used to represent the functionality of complex oxidised macromolecules often found in atmospheric aerosols. The additive approach for modelling mixed inorganic/organic systems worked well for a variety of mixtures. As expected, deviations between model predictions and measurements increase with increasing concentration. Available surface tension models, used in evaluating the Kelvin term, were found to reproduce measured data with varying success. Deviations from experimental data increased with increased organic compound complexity. For components only slightly

  13. A curved multi-component aerosol hygroscopicity model framework: Part 2 Including organic compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, D. O.; McFiggans, G. B.; Coe, H.

    2005-05-01

    This paper describes the inclusion of organic particulate material within the Aerosol Diameter Dependent Equilibrium Model (ADDEM) framework described in the companion paper applied to inorganic aerosol components. The performance of ADDEM is analysed in terms of its capability to reproduce the behaviour of various organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems using recently published bulk data. Within the modelling architecture already described two separate thermodynamic models are coupled in an additive approach and combined with a method for solving the Kohler equation in order to develop a tool for predicting the water content associated with an aerosol of known inorganic/organic composition and dry size. For development of the organic module, the widely used group contribution method UNIFAC is employed to explicitly deal with the non-ideality in solution. The UNIFAC predictions for components of atmospheric importance were improved considerably by using revised interaction parameters derived from electro-dynamic balance studies. Using such parameters, the model was found to adequately describe mixed systems including 5-6 dicarboxylic acids, down to low relative humidity conditions. By comparison with electrodynamic balance data, it was also found that the model was capable of capturing the behaviour of aqueous aerosols containing Suwannee River Fulvic acid, a structure previously used to represent the functionality of complex oxidised macromolecules often found in atmospheric aerosols. The additive approach for modelling mixed inorganic/organic systems worked well for a variety of mixtures. As expected, deviations between model predictions and measurements increase with increasing concentration. Available surface tension models, used in evaluating the Kelvin term, were found to reproduce measured data with varying success. Deviations from experimental data increased with increased organic compound complexity. For components only slightly soluble in water

  14. A generalized model for optimal transport of images including dissipation and density modulation

    KAUST Repository

    Maas, Jan

    2015-11-01

    © EDP Sciences, SMAI 2015. In this paper the optimal transport and the metamorphosis perspectives are combined. For a pair of given input images geodesic paths in the space of images are defined as minimizers of a resulting path energy. To this end, the underlying Riemannian metric measures the rate of transport cost and the rate of viscous dissipation. Furthermore, the model is capable to deal with strongly varying image contrast and explicitly allows for sources and sinks in the transport equations which are incorporated in the metric related to the metamorphosis approach by Trouvé and Younes. In the non-viscous case with source term existence of geodesic paths is proven in the space of measures. The proposed model is explored on the range from merely optimal transport to strongly dissipative dynamics. For this model a robust and effective variational time discretization of geodesic paths is proposed. This requires to minimize a discrete path energy consisting of a sum of consecutive image matching functionals. These functionals are defined on corresponding pairs of intensity functions and on associated pairwise matching deformations. Existence of time discrete geodesics is demonstrated. Furthermore, a finite element implementation is proposed and applied to instructive test cases and to real images. In the non-viscous case this is compared to the algorithm proposed by Benamou and Brenier including a discretization of the source term. Finally, the model is generalized to define discrete weighted barycentres with applications to textures and objects.

  15. Empirical Validation of a Thermal Model of a Complex Roof Including Phase Change Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphane Guichard

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the empirical validation of a building thermal model of a complex roof including a phase change material (PCM. A mathematical model dedicated to PCMs based on the heat apparent capacity method was implemented in a multi-zone building simulation code, the aim being to increase the understanding of the thermal behavior of the whole building with PCM technologies. In order to empirically validate the model, the methodology is based both on numerical and experimental studies. A parametric sensitivity analysis was performed and a set of parameters of the thermal model has been identified for optimization. The use of the generic optimization program called GenOpt® coupled to the building simulation code enabled to determine the set of adequate parameters. We first present the empirical validation methodology and main results of previous work. We then give an overview of GenOpt® and its coupling with the building simulation code. Finally, once the optimization results are obtained, comparisons of the thermal predictions with measurements are found to be acceptable and are presented.

  16. A multiscale model for glioma spread including cell-tissue interactions and proliferation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engwer, Christian; Knappitsch, Markus; Surulescu, Christina

    2016-04-01

    Glioma is a broad class of brain and spinal cord tumors arising from glia cells, which are the main brain cells that can develop into neoplasms. They are highly invasive and lead to irregular tumor margins which are not precisely identifiable by medical imaging, thus rendering a precise enough resection very difficult. The understanding of glioma spread patterns is hence essential for both radiological therapy as well as surgical treatment. In this paper we propose a multiscale model for glioma growth including interactions of the cells with the underlying tissue network, along with proliferative effects. Our current accounting for two subpopulations of cells to accomodate proliferation according to the go-or-grow dichtomoty is an extension of the setting in [16]. As in that paper, we assume that cancer cells use neuronal fiber tracts as invasive pathways. Hence, the individual structure of brain tissue seems to be decisive for the tumor spread. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is able to provide such information, thus opening the way for patient specific modeling of glioma invasion. Starting from a multiscale model involving subcellular (microscopic) and individual (mesoscale) cell dynamics, we perform a parabolic scaling to obtain an approximating reaction-diffusion-transport equation on the macroscale of the tumor cell population. Numerical simulations based on DTI data are carried out in order to assess the performance of our modeling approach.

  17. Habitability of super-Earth planets around other suns: models including Red Giant Branch evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Bloh, W; Cuntz, M; Schröder, K-P; Bounama, C; Franck, S

    2009-01-01

    The unexpected diversity of exoplanets includes a growing number of super-Earth planets, i.e., exoplanets with masses of up to several Earth masses and a similar chemical and mineralogical composition as Earth. We present a thermal evolution model for a 10 Earth-mass planet orbiting a star like the Sun. Our model is based on the integrated system approach, which describes the photosynthetic biomass production and takes into account a variety of climatological, biogeochemical, and geodynamical processes. This allows us to identify a so-called photosynthesis-sustaining habitable zone (pHZ), as determined by the limits of biological productivity on the planetary surface. Our model considers solar evolution during the main-sequence stage and along the Red Giant Branch as described by the most recent solar model. We obtain a large set of solutions consistent with the principal possibility of life. The highest likelihood of habitability is found for "water worlds." Only mass-rich water worlds are able to realize pHZ-type habitability beyond the stellar main sequence on the Red Giant Branch.

  18. Analysis of electronic models for solar cells including energy resolved defect densities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glitzky, Annegret

    2010-07-01

    We introduce an electronic model for solar cells including energy resolved defect densities. The resulting drift-diffusion model corresponds to a generalized van Roosbroeck system with additional source terms coupled with ODEs containing space and energy as parameters for all defect densities. The system has to be considered in heterostructures and with mixed boundary conditions from device simulation. We give a weak formulation of the problem. If the boundary data and the sources are compatible with thermodynamic equilibrium the free energy along solutions decays monotonously. In other cases it may be increasing, but we estimate its growth. We establish boundedness and uniqueness results and prove the existence of a weak solution. This is done by considering a regularized problem, showing its solvability and the boundedness of its solutions independent of the regularization level. (orig.)

  19. Effect of including decay chains on predictions of equilibrium-type terrestrial food chain models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, G.

    1990-01-01

    Equilibrium-type food chain models are commonly used for assessing the radiological impact to man from environmental releases of radionuclides. Usually these do not take into account build-up of radioactive decay products during environmental transport. This may be a potential source of underprediction. For estimating consequences of this simplification, the equations of an internationally recognised terrestrial food chain model have been extended to include decay chains of variable length. Example calculations show that for releases from light water reactors as expected both during routine operation and in the case of severe accidents, the build-up of decay products during environmental transport is generally of minor importance. However, a considerable number of radionuclides of potential radiological significance have been identified which show marked contributions of decay products to calculated contamination of human food and resulting radiation dose rates. (author)

  20. Transfers of embodied PM2.5emissions from and to the North China region based on a multiregional input-output model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xue; Zhang, Wenzhong; Fan, Jie; Yu, Jianhui; Zhao, Hongyan

    2018-04-01

    Atmospheric PM 2.5 pollution has become a global issue, and is increasingly being associated with social unrest. As a resource reliant local economy and heavy industry cluster, the North China region has become China's greatest emitter, and the source of much pollution spillover to outside regions. To address this issue, the current study investigates the transfers of embodied PM 2.5 emissions to and from the North China region (which is taken to include Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi, and is referred to here as HHSS). The study uses a top-down pollutant emission inventory and environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (EE-MRIO) model. The results indicate that the HHSS area exported a total of 660 Gg of embodied PM 2.5 to other domestic provinces, mainly producing outflows to China's central coastal area (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai) and the Beijing-Tianjin region. HHSS also imported 224 Gg of embodied PM 2.5 from other domestic regions, primarily from Inner Mongolia and the northeast. Furthermore, the transfer of embodied emissions often occurred between geographically adjacent areas to save costs; Beijing and Tianjin mainly transferred embodied pollution to Hebei and Shanxi, whilst Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang tended to import embodied air pollutants from Shandong and Henan. At the sectoral level, the melting and pressing of metals, the production of non-metallic products, and electric and heat power production were the three dominant economic sectors for PM 2.5 emissions, together accounting for 81% of total discharges. Capital formation played a key role in outflows (75%) in all sectors. Moreover, the virtual pollutant emissions exported to foreign countries also significantly affected HHSS' discharges significantly, making up 340 Gg. Allocating responsibility for some proportion of HHSS' emissions to the Beijing-Tianjin area and the central coastal provinces may be an effective approach for mitigating releases in HHSS. Copyright

  1. Classification and modelling of functional outputs of computation codes. Application to accidental thermal-hydraulic calculations in pressurized water reactor (PWR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auder, Benjamin

    2011-01-01

    This research thesis has been made within the frame of a project on nuclear reactor vessel life. It deals with the use of numerical codes aimed at estimating probability densities for every input parameter in order to calculate probability margins at the output level. More precisely, it deals with codes with one-dimensional functional responses. The author studies the numerical simulation of a pressurized thermal shock on a nuclear reactor vessel, i.e. one of the possible accident types. The study of the vessel integrity relies on a thermal-hydraulic analysis and on a mechanical analysis. Algorithms are developed and proposed for each of them. Input-output data are classified using a clustering technique and a graph-based representation. A method for output dimension reduction is proposed, and a regression is applied between inputs and reduced representations. Applications are discussed in the case of modelling and sensitivity analysis for the CATHARE code (a code used at the CEA for the thermal-hydraulic analysis)

  2. Comparison of Two Output-Coding Strategies for Multi-Class Tumor Classification Using Gene Expression Data and Latent Variable Model as Binary Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandeep J. Joseph

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Multi-class cancer classification based on microarray data is described. A generalized output-coding scheme based on One Versus One (OVO combined with Latent Variable Model (LVM is used. Results from the proposed One Versus One (OVO output- coding strategy is compared with the results obtained from the generalized One Versus All (OVA method and their efficiencies of using them for multi-class tumor classification have been studied. This comparative study was done using two microarray gene expression data: Global Cancer Map (GCM dataset and brain cancer (BC dataset. Primary feature selection was based on fold change and penalized t-statistics. Evaluation was conducted with varying feature numbers. The OVO coding strategy worked quite well with the BC data, while both OVO and OVA results seemed to be similar for the GCM data. The selection of output coding methods for combining binary classifiers for multi-class tumor classification depends on the number of tumor types considered, the discrepancies between the tumor samples used for training as well as the heterogeneity of expression within the cancer subtypes used as training data.

  3. The impact of differences in large-scale circulation output from climate models on the regional modeling of ozone and PM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. M. Manders

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may have an impact on air quality (ozone, particulate matter due to the strong dependency of air quality on meteorology. The effect is often studied using a global climate model (GCM to produce meteorological fields that are subsequently used by chemical transport models. However, climate models themselves are subject to large uncertainties and fail to reproduce the present-day climate adequately. The present study illustrates the impact of these uncertainties on air quality. To this end, output from the SRES-A1B constraint transient runs with two GCMs, i.e. ECHAM5 and MIROC-hires, has been dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model RACMO2 and used to force a constant emission run with the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS in a one-way coupled run covering the period 1970–2060.

    Results from the two climate simulations have been compared with a RACMO2-LOTOS-EUROS (RLE simulation forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the period 1989–2009. Both RLE_ECHAM and RLE_MIROC showed considerable deviations from RLE_ERA for daily maximum temperature, precipitation and wind speed. Moreover, sign and magnitude of these deviations depended on the region. The differences in average present-day concentrations between the simulations were equal to (RLE_MIROC or even larger than (RLE_ECHAM the differences in concentrations between present-day and future climate (2041–2060. The climate simulations agreed on a future increase in average summer ozone daily maximum concentrations of 5–10 μg m−3 in parts of Southern Europe and a smaller increase in Western and Central Europe. Annual average PM10 concentrations increased 0.5–1.0 μg m−3 in North-West Europe and the Po Valley, but these numbers are rather uncertain: overall, changes for PM10 were small, both positive and negative changes were found, and for many locations the two climate runs did not agree on the sign of

  4. Including sugar cane in the agro-ecosystem model ORCHIDEE-STICS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Vuichard, N.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.

    2010-12-01

    With 4 million ha currently grown for ethanol in Brazil only, approximately half the global bioethanol production in 2005 (Smeets 2008), and a devoted land area expected to expand globally in the years to come, sugar cane is at the heart of the biofuel debate. Indeed, ethanol made from biomass is currently the most widespread option for alternative transportation fuels. It was originally promoted as a carbon neutral energy resource that could bring energy independence to countries and local opportunities to farmers, until attention was drawn to its environmental and socio-economical drawbacks. It is still not clear to which extent it is a solution or a contributor to climate change mitigation. Dynamic Global Vegetation models can help address these issues and quantify the potential impacts of biofuels on ecosystems at scales ranging from on-site to global. The global agro-ecosystem model ORCHIDEE describes water, carbon and energy exchanges at the soil-atmosphere interface for a limited number of natural and agricultural vegetation types. In order to integrate agricultural management to the simulations and to capture more accurately the specificity of crops' phenology, ORCHIDEE has been coupled with the agronomical model STICS. The resulting crop-oriented vegetation model ORCHIDEE-STICS has been used so far to simulate temperate crops such as wheat, corn and soybean. As a generic ecosystem model, each grid cell can include several vegetation types with their own phenology and management practices, making it suitable to spatial simulations. Here, ORCHIDEE-STICS is altered to include sugar cane as a new agricultural Plant functional Type, implemented and parametrized using the STICS approach. An on-site calibration and validation is then performed based on biomass and flux chamber measurements in several sites in Australia and variables such as LAI, dry weight, heat fluxes and respiration are used to evaluate the ability of the model to simulate the specific

  5. Web-accessible molecular modeling with Rosetta: The Rosetta Online Server that Includes Everyone (ROSIE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moretti, Rocco; Lyskov, Sergey; Das, Rhiju; Meiler, Jens; Gray, Jeffrey J

    2018-01-01

    The Rosetta molecular modeling software package provides a large number of experimentally validated tools for modeling and designing proteins, nucleic acids, and other biopolymers, with new protocols being added continually. While freely available to academic users, external usage is limited by the need for expertise in the Unix command line environment. To make Rosetta protocols available to a wider audience, we previously created a web server called Rosetta Online Server that Includes Everyone (ROSIE), which provides a common environment for hosting web-accessible Rosetta protocols. Here we describe a simplification of the ROSIE protocol specification format, one that permits easier implementation of Rosetta protocols. Whereas the previous format required creating multiple separate files in different locations, the new format allows specification of the protocol in a single file. This new, simplified protocol specification has more than doubled the number of Rosetta protocols available under ROSIE. These new applications include pK a determination, lipid accessibility calculation, ribonucleic acid redesign, protein-protein docking, protein-small molecule docking, symmetric docking, antibody docking, cyclic toxin docking, critical binding peptide determination, and mapping small molecule binding sites. ROSIE is freely available to academic users at http://rosie.rosettacommons.org. © 2017 The Protein Society.

  6. Input-output supervisor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupuy, R.

    1970-01-01

    The input-output supervisor is the program which monitors the flow of informations between core storage and peripheral equipments of a computer. This work is composed of three parts: 1 - Study of a generalized input-output supervisor. With sample modifications it looks like most of input-output supervisors which are running now on computers. 2 - Application of this theory on a magnetic drum. 3 - Hardware requirement for time-sharing. (author) [fr

  7. Romantic passion as output from a self-regulating, intimacy-seeking system: a model for understanding passionate love.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, Adam B

    2005-06-01

    This article presents a model of why individuals experience the feeling of passionate love in intimate relationships. Previous models have been limited because they do not describe the purpose and function of passionate love, do not incorporate basic emotion and personality theory, or are not applicable to help couples in distress. The present model reinterprets and integrates previous findings. New predictions are made about the functioning of passionate love in relationships by hypothesizing a self-regulating, intimacy-seeking system that produces passionate love as its outcome. A self-regulation model proposed by Carver and Scheier in 1998 is the template on which this model is based.

  8. A curved multi-component aerosol hygroscopicity model framework: 2 Including organics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, D. O.; McFiggans, G. B.; Coe, H.

    2004-12-01

    This paper describes the inclusion of organic particulate material within the Aerosol Diameter Dependent Equilibrium Model (ADDEM) framework described in the companion paper applied to inorganic aerosol components. The performance of ADDEM is analysed in terms of its capability to reproduce the behaviour of various organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems using recently published bulk data. Within the modelling architecture already described two separate thermodynamic models are coupled in an additive approach and combined with a method for solving the Köhler equation in order to develop a tool for predicting the water content associated with an aerosol of known inorganic/organic composition and dry size. For development of the organic module, the widely used group contribution method UNIFAC is employed to explicitly deal with the non-ideality in solution. The UNIFAC predictions for components of atmospheric importance were improved considerably by using revised interaction parameters derived from electro-dynamic balance studies. Using such parameters, the model was found to adequately describe mixed systems including 5-6 dicarboxylic acids, down to low relative humidity conditions. The additive approach for modelling mixed inorganic/organic systems worked well for a variety of mixtures. As expected, deviations between predicted and measured data increase with increasing concentration. Available surface tension models, used in evaluating the Kelvin term, were found to reproduce measured data with varying success. Deviations from experimental data increased with increased organic compound complexity. For components only slightly soluble in water, significant deviations from measured surface tension depression behaviour were predicted with both model formalisms tested. A Sensitivity analysis showed that such variation is likely to lead to predicted growth factors within the measurement uncertainty for growth factor taken in the sub-saturated regime. Greater

  9. A Hydrological Concept including Lateral Water Flow Compatible with the Biogeochemical Model ForSAFE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliana Zanchi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The study presents a hydrology concept developed to include lateral water flow in the biogeochemical model ForSAFE. The hydrology concept was evaluated against data collected at Svartberget in the Vindeln Research Forest in Northern Sweden. The results show that the new concept allows simulation of a saturated and an unsaturated zone in the soil as well as water flow that reaches the stream comparable to measurements. The most relevant differences compared to streamflow measurements are that the model simulates a higher base flow in winter and lower flow peaks after snowmelt. These differences are mainly caused by the assumptions made to regulate the percolation at the bottom of the simulated soil columns. The capability for simulating lateral flows and a saturated zone in ForSAFE can greatly improve the simulation of chemical exchange in the soil and export of elements from the soil to watercourses. Such a model can help improve the understanding of how environmental changes in the forest landscape will influence chemical loads to surface waters.

  10. Integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect in a quintessence cosmological model: Including anisotropic stress of dark energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y. T.; Xu, L. X.; Gui, Y. X.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect in the quintessence cold dark matter model with constant equation of state and constant speed of sound in dark energy rest frame, including dark energy perturbation and its anisotropic stress. Comparing with the ΛCDM model, we find that the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW)-power spectrums are affected by different background evolutions and dark energy perturbation. As we change the speed of sound from 1 to 0 in the quintessence cold dark matter model with given state parameters, it is found that the inclusion of dark energy anisotropic stress makes the variation of magnitude of the ISW source uncertain due to the anticorrelation between the speed of sound and the ratio of dark energy density perturbation contrast to dark matter density perturbation contrast in the ISW-source term. Thus, the magnitude of the ISW-source term is governed by the competition between the alterant multiple of (1+3/2xc-circumflex s 2 ) and that of δ de /δ m with the variation of c-circumflex s 2 .

  11. Expanded rock blast modeling capabilities of DMC{_}BLAST, including buffer blasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Preece, D.S. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidman, J.P.; Chung, S.H. [ICI Explosives (Canada)

    1996-12-31

    A discrete element computer program named DMC{_}BLAST (Distinct Motion Code) has been under development since 1987 for modeling rock blasting. This program employs explicit time integration and uses spherical or cylindrical elements that are represented as circles in 2-D. DMC{_}BLAST calculations compare favorably with data from actual bench blasts. The blast modeling capabilities of DMC{_}BLAST have been expanded to include independently dipping geologic layers, top surface, bottom surface and pit floor. The pit can also now be defined using coordinates based on the toe of the bench. A method for modeling decked explosives has been developed which allows accurate treatment of the inert materials (stemming) in the explosive column and approximate treatment of different explosives in the same blasthole. A DMC{_}BLAST user can specify decking through a specific geologic layer with either inert material or a different explosive. Another new feature of DMC{_}BLAST is specification of an uplift angle which is the angle between the normal to the blasthole and a vector defining the direction of explosive loading on particles adjacent to the blasthole. A buffer (choke) blast capability has been added for situations where previously blasted material is adjacent to the free face of the bench preventing any significant lateral motion during the blast.

  12. Developing high-resolution urban scale heavy-duty truck emission inventory using the data-driven truck activity model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perugu, Harikishan; Wei, Heng; Yao, Zhuo

    2017-04-01

    Air quality modelers often rely on regional travel demand models to estimate the vehicle activity data for emission models, however, most of the current travel demand models can only output reliable person travel activity rather than goods/service specific travel activity. This paper presents the successful application of data-driven, Spatial Regression and output optimization Truck model (SPARE-Truck) to develop truck-related activity inputs for the mobile emission model, and eventually to produce truck specific gridded emissions. To validate the proposed methodology, the Cincinnati metropolitan area in United States was selected as a case study site. From the results, it is found that the truck miles traveled predicted using traditional methods tend to underestimate - overall 32% less than proposed model- truck miles traveled. The coefficient of determination values for different truck types range between 0.82 and 0.97, except the motor homes which showed least model fit with 0.51. Consequently, the emission inventories calculated from the traditional methods were also underestimated i.e. -37% for NOx, -35% for SO2, -43% for VOC, -43% for BC, -47% for OC and - 49% for PM2.5. Further, the proposed method also predicted within ∼7% of the national emission inventory for all pollutants. The bottom-up gridding methodology used in this paper could allocate the emissions to grid cell where more truck activity is expected, and it is verified against regional land-use data. Most importantly, using proposed method it is easy to segregate gridded emission inventory by truck type, which is of particular interest for decision makers, since currently there is no reliable method to test different truck-category specific travel-demand management strategies for air pollution control.

  13. Modelling and control of a microgrid including photovoltaic and wind generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mohammed Touseef

    Extensive increase of distributed generation (DG) penetration and the existence of multiple DG units at distribution level have introduced the notion of micro-grid. This thesis develops a detailed non-linear and small-signal dynamic model of a microgrid that includes PV, wind and conventional small scale generation along with their power electronics interfaces and the filters. The models developed evaluate the amount of generation mix from various DGs for satisfactory steady state operation of the microgrid. In order to understand the interaction of the DGs on microgrid system initially two simpler configurations were considered. The first one consists of microalternator, PV and their electronics, and the second system consists of microalternator and wind system each connected to the power system grid. Nonlinear and linear state space model of each microgrid are developed. Small signal analysis showed that the large participation of PV/wind can drive the microgrid to the brink of unstable region without adequate control. Non-linear simulations are carried out to verify the results obtained through small-signal analysis. The role of the extent of generation mix of a composite microgrid consisting of wind, PV and conventional generation was investigated next. The findings of the smaller systems were verified through nonlinear and small signal modeling. A central supervisory capacitor energy storage controller interfaced through a STATCOM was proposed to monitor and enhance the microgrid operation. The potential of various control inputs to provide additional damping to the system has been evaluated through decomposition techniques. The signals identified to have damping contents were employed to design the supervisory control system. The controller gains were tuned through an optimal pole placement technique. Simulation studies demonstrate that the STATCOM voltage phase angle and PV inverter phase angle were the best inputs for enhanced stability boundaries.

  14. Linking dynamic migration models to the real world; this report is a summary of the output of `Dynashop 1997'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, M.; Ens, B.J.

    2001-01-01

    This report describes the results of an international workshop on putting dynamic models of migration to the test, which was partly financed by the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change. Aim of the workshop was to investigate the applicability of dynamic models of

  15. Effective mass approximation versus full atomistic model to calculate the output characteristics of a gate-all-around germanium nanowire field effect transistor (GAA-GeNW-FET)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayani, Amir Hossein; Voves, Jan; Dideban, Daryoosh

    2018-01-01

    Here, we compare the output characteristics of a gate-all-around germanium nanowire field effect transistor (GAA-GeNW-FET) with 2.36 nm2 square cross-section area using tight-binding (TB) sp3d5s∗ model (full atomistic model (FAM)) and effective mass approximation (EMA). Synopsys/QuantumWise Atomistix ToolKit (ATK) and Silvaco Atlas3D are used to consider the TB model and EMA, respectively. Results show that EMA predicted only one quantum state (QS) for quantum transport, whereas FAM predicted three QSs. A cosine function behavior is obtained by both methods for the first quantum state. The calculated bandgap value by EMA is almost twice smaller than that of the FAM. Also, a fluctuating current is predicted by both methods but in different oscillation values.

  16. A Novel Approach to Develop the Lower Order Model of Multi-Input Multi-Output System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajalakshmy, P.; Dharmalingam, S.; Jayakumar, J.

    2017-10-01

    A mathematical model is a virtual entity that uses mathematical language to describe the behavior of a system. Mathematical models are used particularly in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines like physics, biology, and electrical engineering as well as in the social sciences like economics, sociology and political science. Physicists, Engineers, Computer scientists, and Economists use mathematical models most extensively. With the advent of high performance processors and advanced mathematical computations, it is possible to develop high performing simulators for complicated Multi Input Multi Ouptut (MIMO) systems like Quadruple tank systems, Aircrafts, Boilers etc. This paper presents the development of the mathematical model of a 500 MW utility boiler which is a highly complex system. A synergistic combination of operational experience, system identification and lower order modeling philosophy has been effectively used to develop a simplified but accurate model of a circulation system of a utility boiler which is a MIMO system. The results obtained are found to be in good agreement with the physics of the process and with the results obtained through design procedure. The model obtained can be directly used for control system studies and to realize hardware simulators for boiler testing and operator training.

  17. Web-based Data Visualization of the MGClimDeX Climate Model Output: An Integrated Perspective of Climate Change Impact on Natural Resources in Highly Vulnerable Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Rey, J.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Nangini, C.

    2016-12-01

    Earth System Models allow us to understand the interactions between climate and biogeological processes. These models generate a very large amount of data. These data are usually reduced to a few number of static figures shown in highly specialized scientific publications. However, the potential impacts of climate change demand a broader perspective regarding the ways in which climate model results of this kind are disseminated, particularly in the amount and variety of data, and the target audience. This issue is of great importance particularly for scientific projects that seek a large broadcast with different audiences on their key results. The MGClimDeX project, which assesses the climate change impact on La Martinique island in the Lesser Antilles, will provide tools and means to help the key stakeholders -responsible for addressing the critical social, economic, and environmental issues- to take the appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures in order to prevent future risks associated with climate variability and change, and its role on human activities. The MGClimDeX project will do so by using model output and data visualization techniques within the next year, showing the cross-connected impacts of climate change on various sectors (agriculture, forestry, ecosystems, water resources and fisheries). To address this challenge of representing large sets of data from model output, we use back-end data processing and front-end web-based visualization techniques, going from the conventional netCDF model output stored on hub servers to highly interactive web-based data-powered visualizations on browsers. We use the well-known javascript library D3.js extended with DC.js -a dimensional charting library for all the front-end interactive filtering-, in combination with Bokeh, a Python library to synthesize the data, all framed in the essential HTML+CSS scripts. The resulting websites exist as standalone information units or embedded into journals or scientific

  18. Intestinal bacterial overgrowth includes potential pathogens in the carbohydrate overload models of equine acute laminitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onishi, Janet C; Park, Joong-Wook; Prado, Julio; Eades, Susan C; Mirza, Mustajab H; Fugaro, Michael N; Häggblom, Max M; Reinemeyer, Craig R

    2012-10-12

    Carbohydrate overload models of equine acute laminitis are used to study the development of lameness. It is hypothesized that a diet-induced shift in cecal bacterial communities contributes to the development of the pro-inflammatory state that progresses to laminar failure. It is proposed that vasoactive amines, protease activators and endotoxin, all bacterial derived bioactive metabolites, play a role in disease development. Questions regarding the oral bioavailability of many of the bacterial derived bioactive metabolites remain. This study evaluates the possibility that a carbohydrate-induced overgrowth of potentially pathogenic cecal bacteria occurs and that bacterial translocation contributes toward the development of the pro-inflammatory state. Two groups of mixed-breed horses were used, those with laminitis induced by cornstarch (n=6) or oligofructan (n=6) and non-laminitic controls (n=8). Cecal fluid and tissue homogenates of extra-intestinal sites including the laminae were used to enumerate Gram-negative and -positive bacteria. Horses that developed Obel grade2 lameness, revealed a significant overgrowth of potentially pathogenic Gram-positive and Gram-negative intestinal bacteria within the cecal fluid. Although colonization of extra-intestinal sites with potentially pathogenic bacteria was not detected, results of this study indicate that cecal/colonic lymphadenopathy and eosinophilia develop in horses progressing to lameness. It is hypothesized that the pro-inflammatory state in carbohydrate overload models of equine acute laminitis is driven by an immune response to the rapid overgrowth of Gram-positive and Gram-negative cecal bacterial communities in the gut. Further equine research is indicated to study the immunological response, involving the lymphatic system that develops in the model. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. CFD simulations and reduced order modeling of a refrigerator compartment including radiation effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayer, Ozgur; Oskay, Ruknettin; Paksoy, Akin; Aradag, Selin

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Free convection in a refrigerator is simulated including radiation effects. ► Heat rates are affected drastically when radiation effects are considered. ► 95% of the flow energy can be represented by using one spatial POD mode. - Abstract: Considering the engineering problem of natural convection in domestic refrigerator applications, this study aims to simulate the fluid flow and temperature distribution in a single commercial refrigerator compartment by using the experimentally determined temperature values as the specified constant wall temperature boundary conditions. The free convection in refrigerator applications is evaluated as a three-dimensional (3D), turbulent, transient and coupled non-linear flow problem. Radiation heat transfer mode is also included in the analysis. According to the results, taking radiation effects into consideration does not change the temperature distribution inside the refrigerator significantly; however the heat rates are affected drastically. The flow inside the compartment is further analyzed with a reduced order modeling method called Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and the energy contents of several spatial and temporal modes that exist in the flow are examined. The results show that approximately 95% of all the flow energy can be represented by only using one spatial mode

  20. A Seasonal Model Using Optimized Multi-Layer Neural Networks to Forecast Power Output of PV Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Hu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available With the continuous increase of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV installed capacity and the urgent demand of synergetic utilization with the other power generation forms, the high-precision prediction of PV power generation is increasingly important for the optimal scheduling and safe operation of the grid. In order to improve the power prediction accuracy, using the response characteristics of PV array under different environmental conditions, a data driven multi-model power prediction method for PV power generation is proposed, based on the seasonal meteorological features. Firstly, through the analysis of PV power characteristics in typical seasons and seasonal distribution of the weather factors, such as solar irradiance and ambient temperature, the influences of different weather factors on PV power prediction are studied. Then, according to the meteorology characteristics of Beijing, different seasons can be divided. The historical data corresponding to different seasons are acquired and then the seasonal PV power forecasting models are established based on optimized multi-layer back propagation neural network (BPNN, realizing the multi-model prediction of PV power. Finally, effectiveness of the seasonal PV power forecasting method is compared and validated. The performance analysis of the neural network forecasting model under typical seasonal conditions shows that the multi-model forecasting method based on seasonal characteristics of PV power generation is better than that of single power forecasting model for the whole year. The results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the power forecasting accuracy of PV power.

  1. Scan-To Output Validation: Towards a Standardized Geometric Quality Assessment of Building Information Models Based on Point Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonduel, M.; Bassier, M.; Vergauwen, M.; Pauwels, P.; Klein, R.

    2017-11-01

    The use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) for existing buildings based on point clouds is increasing. Standardized geometric quality assessment of the BIMs is needed to make them more reliable and thus reusable for future users. First, available literature on the subject is studied. Next, an initial proposal for a standardized geometric quality assessment is presented. Finally, this method is tested and evaluated with a case study. The number of specifications on BIM relating to existing buildings is limited. The Levels of Accuracy (LOA) specification of the USIBD provides definitions and suggestions regarding geometric model accuracy, but lacks a standardized assessment method. A deviation analysis is found to be dependent on (1) the used mathematical model, (2) the density of the point clouds and (3) the order of comparison. Results of the analysis can be graphical and numerical. An analysis on macro (building) and micro (BIM object) scale is necessary. On macro scale, the complete model is compared to the original point cloud and vice versa to get an overview of the general model quality. The graphical results show occluded zones and non-modeled objects respectively. Colored point clouds are derived from this analysis and integrated in the BIM. On micro scale, the relevant surface parts are extracted per BIM object and compared to the complete point cloud. Occluded zones are extracted based on a maximum deviation. What remains is classified according to the LOA specification. The numerical results are integrated in the BIM with the use of object parameters.

  2. Evaluating the economic damages of transport disruptions using a transnational and interregional input-output model for Japan, China, and South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irimoto, Hiroshi; Shibusawa, Hiroyuki; Miyata, Yuzuru

    2017-10-01

    Damage to transportation networks as a result of natural disasters can lead to economic losses due to lost trade along those links in addition to the costs of damage to the infrastructure itself. This study evaluates the economic damages of transport disruptions such as highways, tunnels, bridges, and ports using a transnational and interregional Input-Output Model that divides the world into 23 regions: 9 regions in Japan, 7 regions in China, and 4 regions in Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN5, and the USA to allow us to focus on Japan's regional and international links. In our simulation, economic ripple effects of both international and interregional transport disruptions are measured by changes in the trade coefficients in the input-output model. The simulation showed that, in the case of regional links in Japan, a transport disruption in the Kanmon Straits causes the most damage to our targeted world, resulting in economic damage of approximately 36.3 billion. In the case of international links among Japan, China, and Korea, damage to the link between Kanto in Japan and Huabei in China causes economic losses of approximately 31.1 billion. Our result highlights the importance of disaster prevention in the Kanmon Straits, Kanto, and Huabei to help ensure economic resilience.

  3. The OpenMI - its Transformation From a Research Output to a Global Standard for the Integrated Modelling Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R.

    2008-12-01

    The pressure to take a more integrated approach both to science and to management increases by the day. At almost any scale from local to global, it is no longer possible to consider issues in isolation; to do so runs a high risk of creating more problems than are solved. The consequence of this situation is that there is strong encouragement in the scientific world not just to understand and to be able to predict the response of individual processes but also to predict how those processes will interact. The manager is similarly encouraged to think in the widest terms about the likely impact of any policy before it is implemented. A new reservoir may solve a water supply problem but will it adversely affect the fishing and hence the tourist trade? How will climate change impact biodiversity? Will the drugs for treating a flu pandemic adversely affect river water quality? One approach to predicting such impacts would be to create new models simulating more and more processes. This, however, is neither feasible nor useful and makes poor use of the huge investment in existing models. A better approach, with many additional benefits, would be to find a way of linking existing models and modelling components such as databases or visualisation systems. Against this background, the European Commission, as part of its research programme to facilitate the introduction of integrated water management, commissioned a community project to find a generic solution to the linking of simulation models at run time. The outcome of this work was the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI) standard and the creation of the OpenMI Association, an open, non-proprietary, not-for-profit, international organisation for its support. The work has received widespread recognition and encouragement from across the world, especially in the USA. A second phase is now building a community to continue the OpenMI's development and promote its use. The community's vision, mission and implementation strategy

  4. Input/Output linearizing control of a nuclear reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez C, V.

    1994-01-01

    The feedback linearization technique is an approach to nonlinear control design. The basic idea is to transform, by means of algebraic methods, the dynamics of a nonlinear control system into a full or partial linear system. As a result of this linearization process, the well known basic linear control techniques can be used to obtain some desired dynamic characteristics. When full linearization is achieved, the method is referred to as input-state linearization, whereas when partial linearization is achieved, the method is referred to as input-output linearization. We will deal with the latter. By means of input-output linearization, the dynamics of a nonlinear system can be decomposed into an external part (input-output), and an internal part (unobservable). Since the external part consists of a linear relationship among the output of the plant and the auxiliary control input mentioned above, it is easy to design such an auxiliary control input so that we get the output to behave in a predetermined way. Since the internal dynamics of the system is known, we can check its dynamics behavior on order of to ensure that the internal states are bounded. The linearization method described here can be applied to systems with one-input/one-output, as well as to systems with multiple-inputs/multiple-outputs. Typical control problems such as stabilization and reference path tracking can be solved using this technique. In this work, the input/output linearization theory is presented, as well as the problem of getting the output variable to track some desired trayectories. Further, the design of an input/output control system applied to the nonlinear model of a research nuclear reactor is included, along with the results obtained by computer simulation. (Author)

  5. The use of graph theory in the sensitivity analysis of the model output: a second order screening method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campolongo, Francesca; Braddock, Roger

    1999-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis screening methods aim to isolate the most important factors in experiments involving a large number of significant factors and interactions. This paper extends the one-factor-at-a-time screening method proposed by Morris. The new method, in addition to the 'overall' sensitivity measures already provided by the traditional Morris method, offers estimates of the two-factor interaction effects. The number of model evaluations required is O(k 2 ), where k is the number of model input factors. The efficient sampling strategy in the parameter space is based on concepts of graph theory and on the solution of the 'handcuffed prisoner problem'

  6. Nonlinear Fractional Sliding Mode Controller Based on Reduced Order FNPK Model for Output Power Control of Nuclear Research Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davijani, Nafiseh Zare; Jahanfarnia, Gholamreza; Abharian, Amir Esmaeili

    2017-01-01

    One of the most important issues with respect to nuclear reactors is power control. In this study, we designed a fractional-order sliding mode controller based on a nonlinear fractional-order model of the reactor system in order to track the reference power trajectory and overcome uncertainties and external disturbances. Since not all of the variables in an operating reactor are measurable or specified in the control law, we propose a reduced-order fractional neutron point kinetic (ROFNPK) model based on measurable variables. In the design, we assume the differences between the approximated model and the real system is limited. We use the obtained model in the controller design process and use the Lyapunov method to perform a stability analysis of the closed-loop system. We simulate the proposed reduced-order fractional-order sliding mode controller (ROFOSMC) using Matlab/Simulink, and its performance is compared with that of a reduced order integer-order sliding mode controller (ROIOSMC). Our simulation results indicate an acceptable performance of the proposed approach in tracking the reference power trajectory with respect to ROIOSMC because of faster response of control effort signal and the smaller tracking error. Moreover, the results illustrate the capability of the controller in rejection of the disturbance and the noise signals and the robustness of controller against uncertainty.

  7. The Gamma renewal process as an output of the diffusion leaky integrate-and-fire neuronal model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lánský, Petr; Sacerdote, L.; Zucca, C.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 110, 2-3 (2016), s. 193-200 ISSN 0340-1200 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-08066S Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : first-passage-time problem * leaky integrate-and-fire * Stein's neuronal model Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 1.716, year: 2016

  8. Evolution of the continental upper mantle : numerical modelling of thermo-chemical convection including partial melting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Smet, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis elaborates on the evolution of the continental upper mantle based on numerical modelling results. The descriptive and explanatory basis is formed by a numerical thermo-chemical convection model. The model evolution starts in the early Archaean about 4 billion years ago. The model follows

  9. Evolution of the continental upper mantle : numerical modelling of thermo-chemical convection including partial melting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smet, J.H. de

    1999-01-01

    This thesis elaborates on the evolution of the continental upper mantle based on numerical modelling results. The descriptive and explanatory basis is formed by a numerical thermo-chemical convection model. The model evolution starts in the early Archaean about 4 billion years ago. The model

  10. Research management and research output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Bosch

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: A study was conducted at two merged South African higher education institutions to determine which management factors, as identified in a literature study as well as through a factor analysis of survey data, were predictive of the dependent variable 'research output'. Problem investigated: Research output contributes to creating sustainability of knowledge of management sciences and therefore the active management of research is in the interest of progressive universities. Research management related activities are usually associated with measurable targets, detailed plans, rigorous evaluation and decisive action - all of which are observable (perhaps programmable behaviour also referred to as tangible factors. Authors argue that the tangible factors of any successful institution can be copied, technology can be bought, and in theory you should have an instantly thriving research institution. It is, however, clear that although many institutions have exactly the same technology and structure as their successful competitors, they still fail to succeed in increasing research output. Design and Research methodology or approach: A survey was distributed to n=411 and yielded a 49.6% response rate. A confirmatory reliability analysis as well as a factor analysis was conducted. Findings/implications: The empirical model that was derived through a factor analysis strengthens the argument that both tangible and intangible factors exist in a research environment. Tangible and intangible factors play a different role in predicting research output. The tangible factors are predictors of research output for non-research-active academics. The theoretical research output prediction model highlights predictors such as 'professional activities' and 'individual skills and competence' for specific groupings. The theoretical model indicates that the factors that predict research output are largely intrinsic to a researcher but could also be supported by

  11. A Thermal Evolution Model of the Earth Including the Biosphere, Continental Growth and Mantle Hydration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höning, D.; Spohn, T.

    2014-12-01

    By harvesting solar energy and converting it to chemical energy, photosynthetic life plays an important role in the energy budget of Earth [2]. This leads to alterations of chemical reservoirs eventually affecting the Earth's interior [4]. It further has been speculated [3] that the formation of continents may be a consequence of the evolution life. A steady state model [1] suggests that the Earth without its biosphere would evolve to a steady state with a smaller continent coverage and a dryer mantle than is observed today. We present a model including (i) parameterized thermal evolution, (ii) continental growth and destruction, and (iii) mantle water regassing and outgassing. The biosphere enhances the production rate of sediments which eventually are subducted. These sediments are assumed to (i) carry water to depth bound in stable mineral phases and (ii) have the potential to suppress shallow dewatering of the underlying sediments and crust due to their low permeability. We run a Monte Carlo simulation for various initial conditions and treat all those parameter combinations as success which result in the fraction of continental crust coverage observed for present day Earth. Finally, we simulate the evolution of an abiotic Earth using the same set of parameters but a reduced rate of continental weathering and erosion. Our results suggest that the origin and evolution of life could have stabilized the large continental surface area of the Earth and its wet mantle, leading to the relatively low mantle viscosity we observe at present. Without photosynthetic life on our planet, the Earth would be geodynamical less active due to a dryer mantle, and would have a smaller fraction of continental coverage than observed today. References[1] Höning, D., Hansen-Goos, H., Airo, A., Spohn, T., 2014. Biotic vs. abiotic Earth: A model for mantle hydration and continental coverage. Planetary and Space Science 98, 5-13. [2] Kleidon, A., 2010. Life, hierarchy, and the

  12. Dynamic modeling and simulation of an induction motor with adaptive backstepping design of an input-output feedback linearization controller in series hybrid electric vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalalifar Mehran

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper using adaptive backstepping approach an adaptive rotor flux observer which provides stator and rotor resistances estimation simultaneously for induction motor used in series hybrid electric vehicle is proposed. The controller of induction motor (IM is designed based on input-output feedback linearization technique. Combining this controller with adaptive backstepping observer the system is robust against rotor and stator resistances uncertainties. In additional, mechanical components of a hybrid electric vehicle are called from the Advanced Vehicle Simulator Software Library and then linked with the electric motor. Finally, a typical series hybrid electric vehicle is modeled and investigated. Various tests, such as acceleration traversing ramp, and fuel consumption and emission are performed on the proposed model of a series hybrid vehicle. Computer simulation results obtained, confirm the validity and performance of the proposed IM control approach using for series hybrid electric vehicle.

  13. UFO - The Universal FEYNRULES Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degrande, Céline; Duhr, Claude; Fuks, Benjamin; Grellscheid, David; Mattelaer, Olivier; Reiter, Thomas

    2012-06-01

    We present a new model format for automatized matrix-element generators, the so-called Universal FEYNRULES Output (UFO). The format is universal in the sense that it features compatibility with more than one single generator and is designed to be flexible, modular and agnostic of any assumption such as the number of particles or the color and Lorentz structures appearing in the interaction vertices. Unlike other model formats where text files need to be parsed, the information on the model is encoded into a PYTHON module that can easily be linked to other computer codes. We then describe an interface for the MATHEMATICA package FEYNRULES that allows for an automatic output of models in the UFO format.

  14. Serving and Rendering Cluster-Based Ocean Model Output on a Geowall Using the Live Access Server

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, C. W.; Hermann, A. J.; Dobbins, E. L.

    2004-12-01

    Scientists at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory are relying more and more on supercomputing platforms for their modeling efforts. Running ocean models on these large cluster machines poses problems in that domain sizes are increasing and tracking how the model dynamics are developing during a run requires high-bandwidth network time. In an effort to streamline this procedure both server and 3-D rending technology are utilized. Intermediate model results saved in netCDF file format can be served remotely to query model progress using the Live Access Server (LAS). In our implementation, a crontab script checks for model results and generates an XML data-file descriptor and adds the data set to the list of those available for LAS to serve up. On top of the default product choices (2-D plots, data listings, etc), the user can also chose one of two 3D file formats: either a VRML or a Vis5D file of the variable of interest. The LAS is built upon the Ferret data analysis package with the ability to re-grid variables defined on curvilinear coordinate grids and to serve up Vis5D files. An alternate back-end, written using the open-source Visualization Toolkit (VTK), can serve a VRML isosurface as well as current vector fields, keeping bandwidth low by utilizing topology-preserving polygon mesh decimation algorithms. Files served through our LAS system can be projected in passive stereo using a Geowall (www.geowall.org) by either Vis5D, or by ImmersaView. While ImmersaView offers the ability to animate through the VRML isosurfaces in collaboration with a remote researcher, Vis5D (an older-technology application) gives the user the ability to explore the data more thoroughly by allowing the scientist to change isosurfaces levels, or to probe the data using contour or vector slices. We will explore the possibility of using LAS as the server for the parallel, composite-rendering application ParaView.

  15. Forecasting Brazilian output and its turning points in the presence of breaks: a comparison of linear and nonlinear models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brisne J. V. Céspedes

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models under the presence of structural breaks for the Brazilian real GDP growth. The Markov switching models proposed by Hamilton (1989 and its generalized version by Lam (1990 are applied to quarterly GDP from 1975:1 to 2000:2 allowing for breaks at the Collor Plans. The probabilities of recessions are used to analyze the Brazilian business cycle. The in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting ability of growth rates of GDP of each model is compared with linear specifications and with a non-parametric rule. We find that the nonlinear models display a better forecasting performance than linear models. The specifications with the presence of structural breaks are important in obtaining a representation of the Brazilian business cycle and their inclusion improves considerably the models forecasting performance within and out-of-sample.Este artigo compara as habilidades preditivas de modelos lineares e não-lineares, com quebras estruturais, nas previsões da taxa de crescimento do PIB real do Brasil. Os modelos com mudanças de regime markovianas, propostos por Hamilton (1989 e generalizados por Lam (1990, são estimados para dados trimestrais de 1975:1 a 2000:2. Os modelos são estimados permitindo quebras estruturais durante os planos Collor. As probabilidades de recessão dos modelos são utilizadas para analisar o ciclo de negócios brasileiro. A capacidade de previsão da taxa de crescimento do PIB fora e dentro da amostra desses modelos é comparada com modelos lineares e com uma regra não-parametrizada. Os resultados indicam que os modelos não-lineares são os que apresentam o melhor desempenho preditivo quando comparados com modelos lineares. A inclusão de quebras estruturais é importante para a representação do ciclo de negócios no Brasil, além de levar a um desempenho de previsão consideravelmente melhor do que os modelos sem intervenção, dentro e fora de

  16. Output hardcopy devices

    CERN Document Server

    Durbeck, Robert

    1988-01-01

    Output Hardcopy Devices provides a technical summary of computer output hardcopy devices such as plotters, computer output printers, and CRT generated hardcopy. Important related technical areas such as papers, ribbons and inks, color techniques, controllers, and character fonts are also covered. Emphasis is on techniques primarily associated with printing, as well as the plotting capabilities of printing devices that can be effectively used for computer graphics in addition to their various printing functions. Comprised of 19 chapters, this volume begins with an introduction to vector and ras

  17. Measuring Cardiac Output during Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignati, Carlo; Cattadori, Gaia

    2017-07-01

    Cardiac output is a key parameter in the assessment of cardiac function, and its measurement is fundamental to the diagnosis, treatment, and prognostic evaluation of all heart diseases. Until recently, cardiac output determination during exercise had been only possible through invasive methods, which were not practical in the clinical setting. Because [Formula: see text]o 2 is cardiac output times arteriovenous content difference, evaluation of cardiac output is usually included in its measurement. Because of the difficulty of directly measuring peak exercise cardiac output, indirect surrogate parameters have been proposed, but with only modest clinical usefulness. Direct measurement of cardiac output can now be made by several noninvasive techniques, such as rebreathing inert gases, impedance cardiology, thoracic bioreactance, estimated continuous cardiac output technology, and transthoracic echocardiography coupled to cardiopulmonary exercise testing, which allow more definitive results and better understanding of the underlying physiopathology.

  18. Total environmental impacts of biofuels from corn stover using a hybrid life cycle assessment model combining process life cycle assessment and economic input-output life cycle assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changqi; Huang, Yaji; Wang, Xinye; Tai, Yang; Liu, Lingqin; Liu, Hao

    2018-01-01

    Studies on the environmental analysis of biofuels by fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (BFPH) have so far focused only on the environmental impacts from direct emissions and have included few indirect emissions. The influence of ignoring some indirect emissions on the environmental performance of BFPH has not been well investigated and hence is not really understood. In addition, in order to avoid shifting environmental problems from one medium to another, a comprehensive assessment of environmental impacts caused by the processes must quantify the environmental emissions to all media (air, water, and land) in relation to each life cycle stage. A well-to-wheels assessment of the total environmental impacts resulting from direct emissions and indirect emissions of a BFPH system with corn stover is conducted using a hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) model combining the economic input-output LCA and the process LCA. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) has been used to estimate the environmental impacts in terms of acidification, eutrophication, global climate change, ozone depletion, human health criteria, photochemical smog formation, ecotoxicity, human health cancer, and human health noncancer caused by 1 MJ biofuel production. Taking account of all the indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the net GHG emissions (81.8 g CO 2 eq/MJ) of the biofuels are still less than those of petroleum-based fuels (94 g CO 2 eq/MJ). Maize production and pyrolysis and hydroprocessing make major contributions to all impact categories except the human health criteria. All impact categories resulting from indirect emissions except eutrophication and smog air make more than 24% contribution to the total environmental impacts. Therefore, the indirect emissions are important and cannot be ignored. Sensitivity analysis has shown that corn stover yield and bio-oil yield affect the total environmental impacts of the biofuels

  19. Characterization and modeling of the magnetic field-induced strain and work output in Ni2MnGa magnetic shape memory alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiefer, B.; Karaca, H.E.; Lagoudas, D.C.; Karaman, I.

    2007-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the experimental characterization and the constitutive modeling of magnetic shape memory alloys (MSMA), in terms of their applicability as actuator materials. The key properties that determine the actuation characteristics are the magnetic field-induced strain (MFIS) and the blocking stress. With the goal of increasing the corresponding actuation output, a material selection strategy was followed which was aimed at obtaining a higher magnetocrystalline anisotropy energy, while keeping the detwinning stress low. This was achieved by choosing a composition in which the separation of the Curie temperature and the martensitic transformation temperatures was large, and then selecting an operating temperature just below the phase transformation temperature. In the selected Ni 51.1 Mn 24.0 Ga 24.9 composition a more than 50% increase of the actuation work output was observed, compared to corresponding data reported in the literature for other off-stoichiometric compositions of the Ni 2 MnGa intermetallic compound. The second part of the paper describes a phenomenological constitutive model that predicts the MFIS hysteresis curves observed in the first part. The model is concerned with the field-induced reorientation of martensitic variants and changes in the magnetic microstructure. Dissipative effects are captured by introducing internal state variables into the free energy function. In its most general form the contributing energy terms are the elastic strain energy, the Zeeman energy, the magnetocrystalline anisotropy energy and appropriate mixing terms. Typical loading cases are considered and the accuracy of the model predictions is evaluated by comparison with the experimental data presented in the first part of this work

  20. Combined SAXS/EM based models of the S. elongatus post-translational circadian oscillator and its interactions with the output His-kinase SasA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rekha Pattanayek

    Full Text Available The circadian clock in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus is composed of a post-translational oscillator (PTO that can be reconstituted in vitro from three different proteins in the presence of ATP and a transcription-translation feedback loop (TTFL. The homo-hexameric KaiC kinase, phosphatase and ATPase alternates between hypo- and hyper-phosphorylated states over the 24-h cycle, with KaiA enhancing phosphorylation, and KaiB antagonizing KaiA and promoting KaiC subunit exchange. SasA is a His kinase that relays output signals from the PTO formed by the three Kai proteins to the TTFL. Although the crystal structures for all three Kai proteins are known, atomic resolution structures of Kai and Kai/SasA protein complexes have remained elusive. Here, we present models of the KaiAC and KaiBC complexes derived from solution small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS, which are consistent with previous EM based models. We also present a combined SAXS/EM model of the KaiC/SasA complex, which has two N-terminal SasA sensory domains occupying positions on the C-terminal KaiC ring reminiscent of the orientations adopted by KaiB dimers. Using EM we demonstrate that KaiB and SasA compete for similar binding sites on KaiC. We also propose an EM based model of the ternary KaiABC complex that is consistent with the sequestering of KaiA by KaiB on KaiC during the PTO dephosphorylation phase. This work provides the first 3D-catalogue of protein-protein interactions in the KaiABC PTO and the output pathway mediated by SasA.

  1. Numerical modelling of seawater intrusion in Shenzhen (China) using a 3D density-dependent model including tidal effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Wei; Yang, Qingchun; Martín, Jordi D.; Juncosa, Ricardo

    2013-04-01

    During the 1990s, groundwater overexploitation has resulted in seawater intrusion in the coastal aquifer of the Shenzhen city, China. Although water supply facilities have been improved and alleviated seawater intrusion in recent years, groundwater overexploitation is still of great concern in some local areas. In this work we present a three-dimensional density-dependent numerical model developed with the FEFLOW code, which is aimed at simulating the extent of seawater intrusion while including tidal effects and different groundwater pumping scenarios. Model calibration, using waterheads and reported chloride concentration, has been performed based on the data from 14 boreholes, which were monitored from May 2008 to December 2009. A fairly good fitness between the observed and computed values was obtained by a manual trial-and-error method. Model prediction has been carried out forward 3 years with the calibrated model taking into account high, medium and low tide levels and different groundwater exploitation schemes. The model results show that tide-induced seawater intrusion significantly affects the groundwater levels and concentrations near the estuarine of the Dasha river, which implies that an important hydraulic connection exists between this river and groundwater, even considering that some anti-seepage measures were taken in the river bed. Two pumping scenarios were considered in the calibrated model in order to predict the future changes in the water levels and chloride concentration. The numerical results reveal a decreased tendency of seawater intrusion if groundwater exploitation does not reach an upper bound of about 1.32 × 104 m3/d. The model results provide also insights for controlling seawater intrusion in such coastal aquifer systems.

  2. VMS forms Output Tables

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These output tables contain parsed and format validated data from the various VMS forms that are sent from any given vessel, while at sea, from the VMS devices on...

  3. Comparison of two output-coding strategies for multi-class tumor classification using gene expression data and Latent Variable Model as binary classifier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Sandeep J; Robbins, Kelly R; Zhang, Wensheng; Rekaya, Romdhane

    2010-03-10

    Multi-class cancer classification based on microarray data is described. A generalized output-coding scheme based on One Versus One (OVO) combined with Latent Variable Model (LVM) is used. Results from the proposed One Versus One (OVO) outputcoding strategy is compared with the results obtained from the generalized One Versus All (OVA) method and their efficiencies of using them for multi-class tumor classification have been studied. This comparative study was done using two microarray gene expression data: Global Cancer Map (GCM) dataset and brain cancer (BC) dataset. Primary feature selection was based on fold change and penalized t-statistics. Evaluation was conducted with varying feature numbers. The OVO coding strategy worked quite well with the BC data, while both OVO and OVA results seemed to be similar for the GCM data. The selection of output coding methods for combining binary classifiers for multi-class tumor classification depends on the number of tumor types considered, the discrepancies between the tumor samples used for training as well as the heterogeneity of expression within the cancer subtypes used as training data.

  4. Modeling of Combined Heat and Power Plant Based on a Multi-Stage Gasifier and Internal Combustion Engines of Various Power Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khudyakova, G. I.; Kozlov, A. N.; Svishchev, D. A.

    2017-11-01

    The paper is concerned with an integrated system of internal combustion engine and mini combined heat and power plant (ICE-CHP). The system is based on multi-stage wood biomass gasification. The use of producer gas in the system affects negatively the internal combustion engine performance and, therefore, reduces the efficiency of the ICE-CHP plant. A mathematical model of an internal combustion engine running on low-calorie producer gas was developed using an overview of Russian and foreign manufacturers of reciprocating units, that was made in the research. A thermal calculation was done for four-stroke gas engines of different rated power outputs (30, 100 and 250 kW), running on producer gas (CO2 - 10.2, CO - 45.8, N2 - 38.8%). Thermal calculation demonstrates that the engine exhaust gas temperature reaches 500 - 600°C at the rated power level and with the lower engine power, the temperature gets higher. For example, for an internal combustion engine power of 1000 kW the temperature of exhaust gases equals 400°C. A comparison of the efficiency of engine operation on natural gas and producer gas shows that with the use of producer gas the power output declines from 300 to 250 kWe. The reduction in the effective efficiency in this case makes up 2%. The measures are proposed to upgrade the internal combustion engine to enable it to run on low-calorie producer gas.

  5. Including Overweight or Obese Students in Physical Education: A Social Ecological Constraint Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Weidong; Rukavina, Paul

    2012-01-01

    In this review, we propose a social ecological constraint model to study inclusion of overweight or obese students in physical education by integrating key concepts and assumptions from ecological constraint theory in motor development and social ecological models in health promotion and behavior. The social ecological constraint model proposes…

  6. ETM documentation update – including modelling conventions and manual for software tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grohnheit, Poul Erik

    , it summarises the work done during 2013, and it also contains presentations for promotion of fusion as a future element in the electricity generation mix and presentations for the modelling community concerning model development and model documentation – in particular for TIAM collaboration workshops....

  7. The Simulation of Daily Temperature Time Series from GCM Output. Part I: Comparison of Model Data with Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Winkler, J. A.; Goodess, C. M.; Andresen, J. A.

    1997-10-01

    For climate change impact analyses, local scenarios of surface variables at the daily scales are frequently required. Empirical transfer functions are a widely used technique to generate scenarios from GCM data at these scales. For successful downscaling, the impact analyst should take into account certain considerations. First, it must be demonstrated that the GCM simulations of the required variable are unrealistic and therefore that downscaling is required. Second, it must be shown that the GCM simulations of the selected predictor variables are realistic. Where errors occur, attempts must be made to compensate for their effect on the transfer function-generated predictions or, where this is not possible, the effect on the transfer function-generated climate series must be understood. Third, the changes in the predictors between the control and perturbed simulation must be examined in the light of the implications for the change in the predicted variable. Finally, the effect of decisions made during the development of the transfer functions on the final result should be explored. This study, presented in two parts, addresses these considerations with respect to the development of local scenarios for daily maximum (TMAX) and minimum (TMIN) temperature for two sites, one in North America (Eau Claire, Michigan) and one in Europe (Alcantarilla, Spain).Part I confirms for a selected GCM that simulations of daily TMAX and TMIN, whether taken from the nearest land grid point, or obtained by interpolation to the site location, are inadequate. Differences between the GCM 1 × CO2 and observed temperature series arise because of a 0°C threshold in the model data. At both sites, variability is suppressed during periods affected by the threshold. The thresholds persist into the perturbed simulation, affecting not only GCM-predicted 2 × CO2 temperatures but also, because the duration and timing of the threshold effect changes in the perturbed simulation, the magnitude and

  8. Serverification of Molecular Modeling Applications: The Rosetta Online Server That Includes Everyone (ROSIE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conchúir, Shane Ó.; Der, Bryan S.; Drew, Kevin; Kuroda, Daisuke; Xu, Jianqing; Weitzner, Brian D.; Renfrew, P. Douglas; Sripakdeevong, Parin; Borgo, Benjamin; Havranek, James J.; Kuhlman, Brian; Kortemme, Tanja; Bonneau, Richard; Gray, Jeffrey J.; Das, Rhiju

    2013-01-01

    The Rosetta molecular modeling software package provides experimentally tested and rapidly evolving tools for the 3D structure prediction and high-resolution design of proteins, nucleic acids, and a growing number of non-natural polymers. Despite its free availability to academic users and improving documentation, use of Rosetta has largely remained confined to developers and their immediate collaborators due to the code’s difficulty of use, the requirement for large computational resources, and the unavailability of servers for most of the Rosetta applications. Here, we present a unified web framework for Rosetta applications called ROSIE (Rosetta Online Server that Includes Everyone). ROSIE provides (a) a common user interface for Rosetta protocols, (b) a stable application programming interface for developers to add additional protocols, (c) a flexible back-end to allow leveraging of computer cluster resources shared by RosettaCommons member institutions, and (d) centralized administration by the RosettaCommons to ensure continuous maintenance. This paper describes the ROSIE server infrastructure, a step-by-step ‘serverification’ protocol for use by Rosetta developers, and the deployment of the first nine ROSIE applications by six separate developer teams: Docking, RNA de novo, ERRASER, Antibody, Sequence Tolerance, Supercharge, Beta peptide design, NCBB design, and VIP redesign. As illustrated by the number and diversity of these applications, ROSIE offers a general and speedy paradigm for serverification of Rosetta applications that incurs negligible cost to developers and lowers barriers to Rosetta use for the broader biological community. ROSIE is available at http://rosie.rosettacommons.org. PMID:23717507

  9. Model based fault detection and diagnosis using structured residual approach in a multi-input multi-output system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asokan A.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Fault detection and isolation (FDI is a task to deduce from observed variable of the system if any component is faulty, to locate the faulty components and also to estimate the fault magnitude present in the system. This paper provides a systematic method of fault diagnosis to detect leak in the three-tank process. The proposed scheme makes use of structured residual approach for detection, isolation and estimation of faults acting on the process [1]. This technique includes residual generation and residual evaluation. A literature review showed that the conventional fault diagnosis methods like the ordinary Chisquare (ψ2 test method, generalized likelihood ratio test have limitations such as the "false alarm" problem. From the results it is inferred that the proposed FDI scheme diagnoses better when compared to other conventional methods.

  10. Mechanosensing in myosin filament solves a 60 years old conflict in skeletal muscle modeling between high power output and slow rise in tension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Marcucci

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Almost 60 years ago Andrew Huxley with his seminal paper [Huxley1957] laid the foundation of modern muscle modeling, linking chemical events to mechanical performance. He described mechanics and energetics of muscle contraction through the cyclical attachment and detachment of myosin motors to the actin filament with ad hoc assumptions on the dependence of the rate constants on the strain of the myosin motors. That relatively simple hypothesis is still present in recent models, even though with several modifications to adapt the model to the different experimental constraints which became subsequently available. However, already in that paper, one controversial aspect of the model became clear. Relatively high attachment and detachment rates of myosin to the actin filament were needed to simulate the high power output at intermediate velocity of contraction. However, these rates were incompatible with the relatively slow rise in tension after activation, despite the rise should be generated by the same rate functions. This discrepancy has not been fully solved till today, despite several hypotheses have been forwarded to reconcile the two aspects.Here, using a conventional muscle model, we show that the recently revealed mechanosensing mechanism of recruitment of myosin motors [Linarietal2015] can solve this long standing problem without any further ad-hoc hypotheses.

  11. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  12. Unified model to the Tungsten inert Gas welding process including the cathode, the plasma and the anode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brochard, M.

    2009-06-01

    During this work, a 2D axially symmetric model of a TIG arc welding process had been developed in order to predict for given welding parameters, the needed variables for a designer of welded assembly: the heat input on the work piece, the weld pool geometry,... The developed model, using the Cast3M finite elements software, deals with the physical phenomena acting in each part of the process: the cathode, the plasma, the work piece with a weld pool, and the interfaces between these parts. To solve this model, the thermohydraulics equations are coupled with the electromagnetic equations that are calculated in part using the least squares finite element method. The beginning of the model validation consisted in comparing the results obtained with the ones available in the scientific literature. Thus, this step points out the action of each force in the weld pool, the contribution of each heat flux in the energy balance. Finally, to validate the model predictiveness, experimental and numerical sensitivity analyses were conducted using a design of experiments approach. The effects of the process current, the arc gap and the electrode tip angle on the weld pool geometry and the energy transferred to the work piece and the arc efficiency were studied. The good agreement obtained by the developed model for these outputs shows the good reproduction of the process physics. (author)

  13. Effects of Commercial Apple Varieties on Human Gut Microbiota Composition and Metabolic Output Using an In Vitro Colonic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutsos, Athanasios; Lima, Maria; Conterno, Lorenza; Gasperotti, Mattia; Bianchi, Martina; Fava, Francesca; Vrhovsek, Urska; Lovegrove, Julie A.; Tuohy, Kieran M.

    2017-01-01

    Apples are a rich source of polyphenols and fiber. A major proportion of apple polyphenols escape absorption in the small intestine and together with non-digestible polysaccharides reach the colon, where they can serve as substrates for bacterial fermentation. Animal studies suggest a synergistic interaction between apple polyphenols and the soluble fiber pectin; however, the effects of whole apples on human gut microbiota are less extensively studied. Three commercial apple varieties—Renetta Canada, Golden Delicious and Pink Lady—were digested and fermented in vitro using a batch culture colonic model (pH 5.5–6.0, 37 °C) inoculated with feces from three healthy donors. Inulin and cellulose were used as a readily and a poorly fermentable plant fiber, respectively. Fecal microbiota composition was measured by 16S rRNA gene Illumina MiSeq sequencing (V3-V4 region) and Fluorescence in Situ Hybridization. Short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and polyphenol microbial metabolites were determined. The three apple varieties significantly changed bacterial diversity, increased Actinobacteria relative abundance, acetate, propionate and total SCFAs (p < 0.05). Renetta Canada and Golden Delicious significantly decreased Bacteroidetes abundance and increased Proteobacteria proportion and bifidobacteria population (p < 0.05). Renetta Canada also increased Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, butyrate levels and polyphenol microbial metabolites (p < 0.05). Together, these data suggest that apples, particularly Renetta Canada, can induce substantial changes in microbiota composition and metabolic activity in vitro, which could be associated with potential benefits to human health. Human intervention studies are necessary to confirm these data and potential beneficial effects. PMID:28538678

  14. Analysis of Low-Carbon Economy Efficiency of Chinese Industrial Sectors Based on a RAM Model with Undesirable Outputs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Meng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Industrial energy and environment efficiency evaluation become especially crucial as industrial sectors play a key role in CO2 emission reduction and energy consumption. This study adopts the additive range-adjusted measure data envelope analysis (RAM-DEA model to estimate the low-carbon economy efficiency of Chinese industrial sectors in 2001–2013. In addition, the CO2 emission intensity mitigation target for each industrial sector is assigned. Results show that, first, most sectors are not completely efficient, but they have experienced and have improved greatly during the period. These sectors can be divided into four categories, namely, mining, light, heavy, and electricity, gas, and water supply industries. The efficiency is diverse among the four industrial categories. The average efficiency of the light industry is the highest among the industries, followed by those of the mining and the electricity, gas, and water supply industries, and that of the heavy industry is the lowest. Second, the electricity, gas, and water supply industry shows the biggest potential for CO2 emission reduction, thus containing most of the sectors with large CO2 emission intensity mitigation targets (more than 45%, followed by the mining and the light industries. Therefore, the Chinese government should formulate diverse and flexible policy implementations according to the actual situation of the different sectors. Specifically, the sectors with low efficiency should be provided with additional policy support (such as technology and finance aids to improve their industrial efficiency, whereas the electricity, gas, and water supply industry should maximize CO2 emission reduction.

  15. Effects of Commercial Apple Varieties on Human Gut Microbiota Composition and Metabolic Output Using an In Vitro Colonic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koutsos, Athanasios; Lima, Maria; Conterno, Lorenza; Gasperotti, Mattia; Bianchi, Martina; Fava, Francesca; Vrhovsek, Urska; Lovegrove, Julie A; Tuohy, Kieran M

    2017-05-24

    Apples are a rich source of polyphenols and fiber. A major proportion of apple polyphenols escape absorption in the small intestine and together with non-digestible polysaccharides reach the colon, where they can serve as substrates for bacterial fermentation. Animal studies suggest a synergistic interaction between apple polyphenols and the soluble fiber pectin; however, the effects of whole apples on human gut microbiota are less extensively studied. Three commercial apple varieties-Renetta Canada, Golden Delicious and Pink Lady-were digested and fermented in vitro using a batch culture colonic model (pH 5.5-6.0, 37 °C) inoculated with feces from three healthy donors. Inulin and cellulose were used as a readily and a poorly fermentable plant fiber, respectively. Fecal microbiota composition was measured by 16S rRNA gene Illumina MiSeq sequencing (V3-V4 region) and Fluorescence in Situ Hybridization. Short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and polyphenol microbial metabolites were determined. The three apple varieties significantly changed bacterial diversity, increased Actinobacteria relative abundance, acetate, propionate and total SCFAs ( p < 0.05). Renetta Canada and Golden Delicious significantly decreased Bacteroidetes abundance and increased Proteobacteria proportion and bifidobacteria population ( p < 0.05). Renetta Canada also increased Faecalibacterium prausnitzii , butyrate levels and polyphenol microbial metabolites ( p < 0.05). Together, these data suggest that apples, particularly Renetta Canada, can induce substantial changes in microbiota composition and metabolic activity in vitro, which could be associated with potential benefits to human health. Human intervention studies are necessary to confirm these data and potential beneficial effects.

  16. Comparing urban solid waste recycling from the viewpoint of urban metabolism based on physical input-output model: A case of Suzhou in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu

    2012-01-01

    Investigating impacts of urban solid waste recycling on urban metabolism contributes to sustainable urban solid waste management and urban sustainability. Using a physical input-output model and scenario analysis, urban metabolism of Suzhou in 2015 is predicted and impacts of four categories of solid waste recycling on urban metabolism are illustrated: scrap tire recycling, food waste recycling, fly ash recycling and sludge recycling. Sludge recycling has positive effects on reducing all material flows. Thus, sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. Moreover, technical levels of scrap tire recycling and food waste recycling should be improved to produce positive effects on reducing more material flows. Fly ash recycling for cement production has negative effects on reducing all material flows except solid wastes. Thus, other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. In addition, the utilization and treatment of secondary wastes from food waste recycling and sludge recycling should be concerned. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Doppler lidar observations of sensible heat flux and intercomparisons with a ground-based energy balance station and WRF model output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Davis

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available During the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS, a scanning Doppler lidar was deployed at Achern, Baden-Wüttemberg, Germany from 13th June to 16th August 2007. Vertical velocity profiles ('rays' through the boundary layer were measured every 3 seconds with vertical profiles of horizontal wind velocity being derived from performing azimuth scans every 30 minutes. During Intense Observation Periods radiosondes were launched from the site. In this paper, a case study of convective boundary layer development on 15th July 2007 is investigated. Estimates of eddy dissipation rate are made from the vertically pointing lidar data and used as one input to the velocity-temperature co-variance equation to estimate sensible heat flux. The sensible heat flux values calculated from Doppler lidar data are compared with a surface based energy balance station and output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model.

  18. Transverse Crack Modeling and Validation in Rotor Systems, Including Thermal Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Bachschmid

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This article describes a model that allows the simulation of the static behavior of a transverse crack in a horizontal rotor under the action of weight and other possible static loads and the dynamic behavior of cracked rotating shaft. The crack breathes—that is, the mechanism of the crack's opening and closing is ruled by the stress on the cracked section exerted by the external loads. In a rotor, the stresses are time-dependent and have a period equal to the period of rotation; thus, the crack periodically breathes. An original, simplified model allows cracks of various shapes to be modeled and thermal stresses to be taken into account, as they may influence the opening and closing mechanism. The proposed method was validated by using two criteria. First the crack's breathing mechanism, simulated by the model, was compared with the results obtained by a nonlinear, threedimensional finite element model calculation, and a good agreement in the results was observed. Then the proposed model allowed the development of the equivalent cracked beam. The results of this model were compared with those obtained by the three-dimensional finite element model. Also in this case, there was a good agreement in the results.

  19. A model for firm-specific strategic wisdom : including illustrations and 49 guiding questions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Straten, Roeland Peter

    2017-01-01

    This PhD thesis provides an answer to the question ‘How may one think strategically’. It does so by presenting a new prescriptive ‘Model for Firm-Specific Strategic Wisdom’. This Model aims to guide any individual strategist in his or her thinking from a state of firm-specific ‘ignorance’ to a state

  20. Complete Loss and Thermal Model of Power Semiconductors Including Device Rating Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ke; Bahman, Amir Sajjad; Beczkowski, Szymon

    2015-01-01

    models, only the electrical loadings are focused and treated as design variables, while the device rating is normally pre-defined by experience with limited design flexibility. Consequently, a more complete loss and thermal model is proposed in this paper, which takes into account not only the electrical...

  1. Numerical models of single- and double-negative metamaterials including viscous and thermal losses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutanda Henriquez, Vicente; Sánchez-Dehesa, José

    2017-01-01

    detailed understanding on how viscous and thermal losses affect the setups at different frequencies. The modeling of a simpler single-negative metamaterial also broadens this overview. Both setups have been modeled with quadratic BEM meshes. Each sample, scaled at two different sizes, has been represented...

  2. Gasification of biomass in a fixed bed downdraft gasifier--a realistic model including tar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barman, Niladri Sekhar; Ghosh, Sudip; De, Sudipta

    2012-03-01

    This study presents a model for fixed bed downdraft biomass gasifiers considering tar also as one of the gasification products. A representative tar composition along with its mole fractions, as available in the literature was used as an input parameter within the model. The study used an equilibrium approach for the applicable gasification reactions and also considered possible deviations from equilibrium to further upgrade the equilibrium model to validate a range of reported experimental results. Heat balance was applied to predict the gasification temperature and the predicted values were compared with reported results in literature. A comparative study was made with some reference models available in the literature and also with experimental results reported in the literature. Finally a predicted variation of performance of the gasifier by this validated model for different air-fuel ratio and moisture content was also discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects by supply-driven input-output model: A case study of Taiwan's industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Kuei-Yen; Wu, Jung-Hua; Huang, Yun-Hsun; Fu, Szu-Chi; Chen, Chia-Yon

    2016-01-01

    Most existing literature focuses on the direct rebound effect on the demand side for consumers. This study analyses direct and indirect rebound effects in Taiwan's industry from the perspective of producers. However, most studies on the producers' viewpoint may overlook inter-industry linkages. This study applies a supply-driven input-output model to quantify the magnitude of rebound effects by explicitly considering inter-industry linkages. Empirical results showed that total rebound effects for most Taiwan's sectors were less than 10% in 2011. A comparison among the sectors yields that sectors with lower energy efficiency had higher direct rebound effects, while sectors with higher forward linkages generated higher indirect rebound effects. Taking the Mining sector (S3) as an example, which is an upstream supplier and has high forward linkages; it showed high indirect rebound effects that are derived from the accumulation of additional energy consumption by its downstream producers. The findings also showed that in almost all sectors, indirect rebound effects were higher than direct rebound effects. In other words, if indirect rebound effects are neglected, the total rebound effects will be underestimated. Hence, the energy-saving potential may be overestimated. - Highlights: • This study quantifies rebound effects by a supply-driven input-output model. • For most Taiwan's sectors, total rebound magnitudes were less than 10% in 2011. • Direct rebound effects and energy efficiency were inverse correlation. • Indirect rebound effects and industrial forward linkages were positive correlation. • Indirect rebound effects were generally higher than direct rebound effects.

  4. A viscoplastic model including anisotropic damage for the time dependent behaviour of rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellet, F.; Hajdu, A.; Deleruyelle, F.; Besnus, F.

    2005-08-01

    This paper presents a new constitutive model for the time dependent mechanical behaviour of rock which takes into account both viscoplastic behaviour and evolution of damage with respect to time. This model is built by associating a viscoplastic constitutive law to the damage theory. The main characteristics of this model are the account of a viscoplastic volumetric strain (i.e. contractancy and dilatancy) as well as the anisotropy of damage. The latter is described by a second rank tensor. Using this model, it is possible to predict delayed rupture by determining time to failure, in creep tests for example. The identification of the model parameters is based on experiments such as creep tests, relaxation tests and quasi-static tests. The physical meaning of these parameters is discussed and comparisons with lab tests are presented. The ability of the model to reproduce the delayed failure observed in tertiary creep is demonstrated as well as the sensitivity of the mechanical response to the rate of loading. The model could be used to simulate the evolution of the excavated damage zone around underground openings.

  5. Potential transformation of trace species including aircraft exhaust in a cloud environment. The `Chedrom model`

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ozolin, Y.E.; Karol, I.L. [Main Geophysical Observatory, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Ramaroson, R. [Office National d`Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

    1997-12-31

    Box model for coupled gaseous and aqueous phases is used for sensitivity study of potential transformation of trace gases in a cloud environment. The rate of this transformation decreases with decreasing of pH in droplets, with decreasing of photodissociation rates inside the cloud and with increasing of the droplet size. Model calculations show the potential formation of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} in aqueous phase and transformation of gaseous HNO{sub 3} into NO{sub x} in a cloud. This model is applied for exploration of aircraft exhausts evolution in plume inside a cloud. (author) 10 refs.

  6. A Two-Dimensional Modeling Procedure to Estimate the Loss Equivalent Resistance Including the Saturation Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Ana Salas

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a modeling procedure specifically designed for a ferrite inductor excited by a waveform in time domain. We estimate the loss resistance in the core (parameter of the electrical model of the inductor by means of a Finite Element Method in 2D which leads to significant computational advantages over the 3D model. The methodology is validated for an RM (rectangular modulus ferrite core working in the linear and the saturation regions. Excellent agreement is found between the experimental data and the computational results.

  7. A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ninna Reitzel; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2015-01-01

    Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death......, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance...... and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our...

  8. A Lumped Thermal Model Including Thermal Coupling and Thermal Boundary Conditions for High Power IGBT Modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahman, Amir Sajjad; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2018-01-01

    Detailed thermal dynamics of high power IGBT modules are important information for the reliability analysis and thermal design of power electronic systems. However, the existing thermal models have their limits to correctly predict these complicated thermal behavior in the IGBTs: The typically used...... thermal model based on one-dimensional RC lumps have limits to provide temperature distributions inside the device, moreover some variable factors in the real-field applications like the cooling and heating conditions of the converter cannot be adapted. On the other hand, the more advanced three......-dimensional thermal models based on Finite Element Method (FEM) need massive computations, which make the long-term thermal dynamics difficult to calculate. In this paper, a new lumped three-dimensional thermal model is proposed, which can be easily characterized from FEM simulations and can acquire the critical...

  9. Advanced Modeling of Ramp Operations including Departure Status at Secondary Airports, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project addresses three modeling elements relevant to NASA's IADS research and ATD-2 project, two related to ramp operations at primary airports and one related...

  10. Extending the Scope of the Acculturation/Pidginization Model to Include Cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, John H.

    1990-01-01

    Examines five cognitive models for second-language acquisition (SLA) and assesses how each might account for the Pidginized interlanguage found in the early stages of second-language acquisition. (23 references) (JL)

  11. An integrated computable general equilibrium model including multiple types and uses of water

    OpenAIRE

    Luckmann, Jonas Jens

    2015-01-01

    Water is a scarce resource in many regions of the world and competition for water is an increasing problem. To countervail this trend policies are needed regulating supply and demand for water. As water is used in many economic activities, water related management decisions usually have complex implications. Economic simulation models have been proven useful to ex-ante assess the consequences of policy changes. Specifically, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are very suitable to ana...

  12. Transverse Crack Modeling and Validation in Rotor Systems Including Thermal Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Bachschmid

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, a model is described that allows one to simulate the static behavior of a transversal crack in a horizontal rotor, under the action of the weight and other possible static loads and the dynamical behavior of the rotating cracked shaft. The crack “breaths,” i.e., the mechanism of opening and closing of the crack, is ruled by the stress acting on the cracked section due to the external loads; in a rotor the stress is time-depending with a period equal to the period of rotation, thus the crack “periodically breaths.” An original simplified model is described that allows cracks of different shape to be modeled and thermal stresses to be taken into account, since they may influence the opening and closing mechanism. The proposed method has been validated using two criteria. Firstly, the crack “breathing” mechanism, simulated with the model, has been compared with the results obtained by a nonlinear 3-D FEM calculation and a good agreement in the results has been observed. Secondly, the proposed model allows the development of the equivalent cracked beam. The results of this model are compared with those obtained by the above-mentioned 3-D FEM. There is a good agreement in the results, of this case as well.

  13. Including sugar cane in the agro-ecosystem model ORCHIDEE-STICS: calibration and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Vuichard, N.; Ciais, P.; Viovy, N.

    2011-12-01

    Sugarcane is currently the most efficient bioenergy crop with regards to the energy produced per hectare. With approximately half the global bioethanol production in 2005, and a devoted land area expected to expand globally in the years to come, sugar cane is at the heart of the biofuel debate. Dynamic global vegetation models coupled with agronomical models are powerful and novel tools to tackle many of the environmental issues related to biofuels if they are carefully calibrated and validated against field observations. Here we adapt the agro-terrestrial model ORCHIDEE-STICS for sugar cane simulations. Observation data of LAI are used to evaluate the sensitivity of the model to parameters of nitrogen absorption and phenology, which are calibrated in a systematic way for six sites in Australia and La Reunion. We find that the optimal set of parameters is highly dependent on the sites' characteristics and that the model can reproduce satisfactorily the evolution of LAI. This careful calibration of ORCHIDEE-STICS for sugar cane biomass production for different locations and technical itineraries provides a strong basis for further analysis of the impacts of bioenergy-related land use change on carbon cycle budgets. As a next step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to estimate the uncertainty of the model in biomass and carbon flux simulation due to its parameterization.

  14. A Novel Mean-Value Model of the Cardiovascular System Including a Left Ventricular Assist Device.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochsner, Gregor; Amacher, Raffael; Schmid Daners, Marianne

    2017-06-01

    Time-varying elastance models (TVEMs) are often used for simulation studies of the cardiovascular system with a left ventricular assist device (LVAD). Because these models are computationally expensive, they cannot be used for long-term simulation studies. In addition, their equilibria are periodic solutions, which prevent the extraction of a linear time-invariant model that could be used e.g. for the design of a physiological controller. In the current paper, we present a new type of model to overcome these problems: the mean-value model (MVM). The MVM captures the behavior of the cardiovascular system by representative mean values that do not change within the cardiac cycle. For this purpose, each time-varying element is manually converted to its mean-value counterpart. We compare the derived MVM to a similar TVEM in two simulation experiments. In both cases, the MVM is able to fully capture the inter-cycle dynamics of the TVEM. We hope that the new MVM will become a useful tool for researchers working on physiological control algorithms. This paper provides a plant model that enables for the first time the use of tools from classical control theory in the field of physiological LVAD control.

  15. Including crystal structure attributes in machine learning models of formation energies via Voronoi tessellations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Logan; Liu, Ruoqian; Krishna, Amar; Hegde, Vinay I.; Agrawal, Ankit; Choudhary, Alok; Wolverton, Chris

    2017-07-01

    While high-throughput density functional theory (DFT) has become a prevalent tool for materials discovery, it is limited by the relatively large computational cost. In this paper, we explore using DFT data from high-throughput calculations to create faster, surrogate models with machine learning (ML) that can be used to guide new searches. Our method works by using decision tree models to map DFT-calculated formation enthalpies to a set of attributes consisting of two distinct types: (i) composition-dependent attributes of elemental properties (as have been used in previous ML models of DFT formation energies), combined with (ii) attributes derived from the Voronoi tessellation of the compound's crystal structure. The ML models created using this method have half the cross-validation error and similar training and evaluation speeds to models created with the Coulomb matrix and partial radial distribution function methods. For a dataset of 435 000 formation energies taken from the Open Quantum Materials Database (OQMD), our model achieves a mean absolute error of 80 meV/atom in cross validation, which is lower than the approximate error between DFT-computed and experimentally measured formation enthalpies and below 15% of the mean absolute deviation of the training set. We also demonstrate that our method can accurately estimate the formation energy of materials outside of the training set and be used to identify materials with especially large formation enthalpies. We propose that our models can be used to accelerate the discovery of new materials by identifying the most promising materials to study with DFT at little additional computational cost.

  16. Including fluid shear viscosity in a structural acoustic finite element model using a scalar fluid representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Lei; Li, Yizeng; Grosh, Karl

    2013-01-01

    An approximate boundary condition is developed in this paper to model fluid shear viscosity at boundaries of coupled fluid-structure system. The effect of shear viscosity is approximated by a correction term to the inviscid boundary condition, written in terms of second order in-plane derivatives of pressure. Both thin and thick viscous boundary layer approximations are formulated; the latter subsumes the former. These approximations are used to develop a variational formation, upon which a viscous finite element method (FEM) model is based, requiring only minor modifications to the boundary integral contributions of an existing inviscid FEM model. Since this FEM formulation has only one degree of freedom for pressure, it holds a great computational advantage over the conventional viscous FEM formulation which requires discretization of the full set of linearized Navier-Stokes equations. The results from thick viscous boundary layer approximation are found to be in good agreement with the prediction from a Navier-Stokes model. When applicable, thin viscous boundary layer approximation also gives accurate results with computational simplicity compared to the thick boundary layer formulation. Direct comparison of simulation results using the boundary layer approximations and a full, linearized Navier-Stokes model are made and used to evaluate the accuracy of the approximate technique. Guidelines are given for the parameter ranges over which the accurate application of the thick and thin boundary approximations can be used for a fluid-structure interaction problem. PMID:23729844

  17. Kinetic modelling of anaerobic hydrolysis of solid wastes, including disintegration processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    García-Gen, Santiago [Department of Chemical Engineering, Institute of Technology, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Sousbie, Philippe; Rangaraj, Ganesh [INRA, UR50, Laboratoire de Biotechnologie de l’Environnement, Avenue des Etangs, Narbonne F-11100 (France); Lema, Juan M. [Department of Chemical Engineering, Institute of Technology, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Rodríguez, Jorge, E-mail: jrodriguez@masdar.ac.ae [Department of Chemical Engineering, Institute of Technology, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Institute Centre for Water and Environment (iWater), Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, PO Box 54224 Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates); Steyer, Jean-Philippe; Torrijos, Michel [INRA, UR50, Laboratoire de Biotechnologie de l’Environnement, Avenue des Etangs, Narbonne F-11100 (France)

    2015-01-15

    Highlights: • Fractionation of solid wastes into readily and slowly biodegradable fractions. • Kinetic coefficients estimation from mono-digestion batch assays. • Validation of kinetic coefficients with a co-digestion continuous experiment. • Simulation of batch and continuous experiments with an ADM1-based model. - Abstract: A methodology to estimate disintegration and hydrolysis kinetic parameters of solid wastes and validate an ADM1-based anaerobic co-digestion model is presented. Kinetic parameters of the model were calibrated from batch reactor experiments treating individually fruit and vegetable wastes (among other residues) following a new protocol for batch tests. In addition, decoupled disintegration kinetics for readily and slowly biodegradable fractions of solid wastes was considered. Calibrated parameters from batch assays of individual substrates were used to validate the model for a semi-continuous co-digestion operation treating simultaneously 5 fruit and vegetable wastes. The semi-continuous experiment was carried out in a lab-scale CSTR reactor for 15 weeks at organic loading rate ranging between 2.0 and 4.7 g VS/L d. The model (built in Matlab/Simulink) fit to a large extent the experimental results in both batch and semi-continuous mode and served as a powerful tool to simulate the digestion or co-digestion of solid wastes.

  18. Results of including geometric nonlinearities in an aeroelastic model of an F/A-18

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttrill, Carey S.

    1989-01-01

    An integrated, nonlinear simulation model suitable for aeroelastic modeling of fixed-wing aircraft has been developed. While the author realizes that the subject of modeling rotating, elastic structures is not closed, it is believed that the equations of motion developed and applied herein are correct to second order and are suitable for use with typical aircraft structures. The equations are not suitable for large elastic deformation. In addition, the modeling framework generalizes both the methods and terminology of non-linear rigid-body airplane simulation and traditional linear aeroelastic modeling. Concerning the importance of angular/elastic inertial coupling in the dynamic analysis of fixed-wing aircraft, the following may be said. The rigorous inclusion of said coupling is not without peril and must be approached with care. In keeping with the same engineering judgment that guided the development of the traditional aeroelastic equations, the effect of non-linear inertial effects for most airplane applications is expected to be small. A parameter does not tell the whole story, however, and modes flagged by the parameter as significant also need to be checked to see if the coupling is not a one-way path, i.e., the inertially affected modes can influence other modes.

  19. HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727

  20. Modelling of bypass transition including the pseudolaminar part of the boundary layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prihoda, J.; Hlava, T. [Ceska Akademie Ved, Prague (Czech Republic). Inst. of Thermomechanics; Kozel, K. [Ceske Vysoke Uceni Technicke, Prague (Czech Republic). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

    1999-12-01

    The boundary-layer transition in turbomachinery is accelerated by a number of parameters, especially by the free-stream turbulence. This so-called bypass transition is usually modelled by means of one-equation or two-equation turbulence models based on turbulent viscosity. Using of transport equations for turbulent energy and for dissipation rate in these models is questionable before the onset of the last stage of the transition, i.e. before the formation of turbulent spots. Used approximations of production and turbulent diffusion are the weak points of turbulence models with turbulent viscosity in the pseudolaminar boundary layer, as the Boussinesq assumption on turbulent viscosity is not fulfilled in this part of the boundary layer. In order to obtain a more reliable prediction of the transitional boundary layer, Mayle and Schulz (1997) proposed for the solution of pseudolaminar boundary layer a special `laminar-kinetic-energy` equation based on the analysis of laminar boundary layer in flows with velocity fluctuations. The effect of production and turbulent diffusion on the development of turbulent energy in the pseudolaminar boundary layer was tested using a two-layer turbulence model. (orig.)

  1. Modelling of bypass transition including the pseudolaminar part of the boundary layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prihoda, J.; Hlava, T. (Ceska Akademie Ved, Prague (Czech Republic). Inst. of Thermomechanics); Kozel, K. (Ceske Vysoke Uceni Technicke, Prague (Czech Republic). Faculty of Mechanical Engineering)

    1999-01-01

    The boundary-layer transition in turbomachinery is accelerated by a number of parameters, especially by the free-stream turbulence. This so-called bypass transition is usually modelled by means of one-equation or two-equation turbulence models based on turbulent viscosity. Using of transport equations for turbulent energy and for dissipation rate in these models is questionable before the onset of the last stage of the transition, i.e. before the formation of turbulent spots. Used approximations of production and turbulent diffusion are the weak points of turbulence models with turbulent viscosity in the pseudolaminar boundary layer, as the Boussinesq assumption on turbulent viscosity is not fulfilled in this part of the boundary layer. In order to obtain a more reliable prediction of the transitional boundary layer, Mayle and Schulz (1997) proposed for the solution of pseudolaminar boundary layer a special 'laminar-kinetic-energy' equation based on the analysis of laminar boundary layer in flows with velocity fluctuations. The effect of production and turbulent diffusion on the development of turbulent energy in the pseudolaminar boundary layer was tested using a two-layer turbulence model. (orig.)

  2. Beam dynamics in high intensity cyclotrons including neighboring bunch effects: Model, implementation, and application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Yang (杨建俊

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Space-charge effects, being one of the most significant collective effects, play an important role in high intensity cyclotrons. However, for cyclotrons with small turn separation, other existing effects are of equal importance. Interactions of radially neighboring bunches are also present, but their combined effects have not yet been investigated in any great detail. In this paper, a new particle in the cell-based self-consistent numerical simulation model is presented for the first time. The model covers neighboring bunch effects and is implemented in the three-dimensional object-oriented parallel code OPAL-cycl, a flavor of the OPAL framework. We discuss this model together with its implementation and validation. Simulation results are presented from the PSI 590 MeV ring cyclotron in the context of the ongoing high intensity upgrade program, which aims to provide a beam power of 1.8 MW (CW at the target destination.

  3. Finding practical phenomenological models that include both photoresist behavior and etch process effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Sunwook; Do, Thuy; Sturtevant, John

    2015-03-01

    For more than five decades, the semiconductor industry has overcome technology challenges with innovative ideas that have continued to enable Moore's Law. It is clear that multi-patterning lithography is vital for 20nm half pitch using 193i. Multi-patterning exposure sequences and pattern multiplication processes can create complicated tolerance accounting due to the variability associated with the component processes. It is essential to ensure good predictive accuracy of compact etch models used in multipatterning simulation. New modelforms have been developed to account for etch bias behavior at 20 nm and below. The new modeling components show good results in terms of global fitness and some improved predication capability for specific features. We've also investigated a new methodology to make the etch model aware of 3D resist profiles.

  4. A Simple Model of Fields Including the Strong or Nuclear Force and a Cosmological Speculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David L. Spencer

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Reexamining the assumptions underlying the General Theory of Relativity and calling an object's gravitational field its inertia, and acceleration simply resistance to that inertia, yields a simple field model where the potential (kinetic energy of a particle at rest is its capacity to move itself when its inertial field becomes imbalanced. The model then attributes electromagnetic and strong forces to the effects of changes in basic particle shape. Following up on the model's assumption that the relative intensity of a particle's gravitational field is always inversely related to its perceived volume and assuming that all black holes spin, may create the possibility of a cosmic rebound where a final spinning black hole ends with a new Big Bang.

  5. Cardiac output measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreja Möller Petrun

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, developments in the measuring of cardiac output and other haemodynamic variables are focused on the so-called minimally invasive methods. The aim of these methods is to simplify the management of high-risk and haemodynamically unstable patients. Due to the need of invasive approach and the possibility of serious complications the use of pulmonary artery catheter has decreased. This article describes the methods for measuring cardiac output, which are based on volume measurement (Fick method, indicator dilution method, pulse wave analysis, Doppler effect, and electrical bioimpedance.

  6. Oil output's changing fortunes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldridge, D.

    1994-01-01

    The Petroleum Economist, previously the Petroleum Press Service, has been making annual surveys of output levels of petroleum in all the oil-producing countries since its founding in 1934. This article documents trends and changes in the major oil-producing countries output from 1934 until the present. This analysis is linked with the political and historical events accompanying these changes, notably the growth of Middle Eastern oil production, the North Sea finds and most recently, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. (UK)

  7. Evaluation of European air quality modelled by CAMx including the volatility basis set scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ciarelli

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Four periods of EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme intensive measurement campaigns (June 2006, January 2007, September–October 2008 and February–March 2009 were modelled using the regional air quality model CAMx with VBS (volatility basis set approach for the first time in Europe within the framework of the EURODELTA-III model intercomparison exercise. More detailed analysis and sensitivity tests were performed for the period of February–March 2009 and June 2006 to investigate the uncertainties in emissions as well as to improve the modelling of organic aerosol (OA. Model performance for selected gas phase species and PM2.5 was evaluated using the European air quality database AirBase. Sulfur dioxide (SO2 and ozone (O3 were found to be overestimated for all the four periods, with O3 having the largest mean bias during June 2006 and January–February 2007 periods (8.9 pbb and 12.3 ppb mean biases respectively. In contrast, nitrogen dioxide (NO2 and carbon monoxide (CO were found to be underestimated for all the four periods. CAMx reproduced both total concentrations and monthly variations of PM2.5 for all the four periods with average biases ranging from −2.1 to 1.0 µg m−3. Comparisons with AMS (aerosol mass spectrometer measurements at different sites in Europe during February–March 2009 showed that in general the model overpredicts the inorganic aerosol fraction and underpredicts the organic one, such that the good agreement for PM2.5 is partly due to compensation of errors. The effect of the choice of VBS scheme on OA was investigated as well. Two sensitivity tests with volatility distributions based on previous chamber and ambient measurements data were performed. For February–March 2009 the chamber case reduced the total OA concentrations by about 42 % on average. In contrast, a test based on ambient measurement data increased OA concentrations by about 42 % for the same period bringing

  8. Molecular Modeling of Aerospace Polymer Matrices Including Carbon Nanotube-Enhanced Epoxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radue, Matthew S.

    Carbon fiber (CF) composites are increasingly replacing metals used in major structural parts of aircraft, spacecraft, and automobiles. The current limitations of carbon fiber composites are addressed through computational material design by modeling the salient aerospace matrix materials. Molecular Dynamics (MD) models of epoxies with and without carbon nanotube (CNT) reinforcement and models of pure bismaleimides (BMIs) were developed to elucidate structure-property relationships for improved selection and tailoring of matrices. The influence of monomer functionality on the mechanical properties of epoxies is studied using the Reax Force Field (ReaxFF). From deformation simulations, the Young's modulus, yield point, and Poisson's ratio are calculated and analyzed. The results demonstrate an increase in stiffness and yield strength with increasing resin functionality. Comparison between the network structures of distinct epoxies is further advanced by the Monomeric Degree Index (MDI). Experimental validation demonstrates the MD results correctly predict the relationship in Young's moduli for all epoxies modeled. Therefore, the ReaxFF is confirmed to be a useful tool for studying the mechanical behavior of epoxies. While epoxies have been well-studied using MD, there has been no concerted effort to model cured BMI polymers due to the complexity of the network-forming reactions. A novel, adaptable crosslinking framework is developed for implementing 5 distinct cure reactions of Matrimid-5292 (a BMI resin) and investigating the network structure using MD simulations. The influence of different cure reactions and extent of curing are analyzed on the several thermo-mechanical properties such as mass density, glass transition temperature, coefficient of thermal expansion, elastic moduli, and thermal conductivity. The developed crosslinked models correctly predict experimentally observed trends for various properties. Finally, the epoxies modeled (di-, tri-, and tetra

  9. Modelling of safety barriers including human and organisational factors to improve process safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Duijm, Nijs Jan; Thommesen, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    Assessment Methodology for IndustrieS, see Salvi et al 2006). ARAMIS employs the bow-tie approach to modelling hazardous scenarios, and it suggests the outcome of auditing safety management to be connected to a semi-quantitative assessment of the quality of safety barriers. ARAMIS discriminates a number...... of safety barrier (passive, automated, or involving human action). Such models are valuable for many purposes, but are difficult to apply to more complex situations, as the influences are to be set individually for each barrier. The approach described in this paper is trying to improve the state...

  10. Puako Ecosystem Model Output Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Coral reefs provide a wide range of ecosystem services that are valued differently by different users. Managers are challenged to comprehensively address the full...

  11. The economic production lot size model extended to include more than one production rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    2005-01-01

    We study an extension of the economic production lot size model, where more than one production rate can be used during a cycle. Moreover, the production rates, as well as their corresponding runtimes are decision variables. We decompose the problem into two subproblems. First, we show that all...

  12. The economic production lot size model extended to include more than one production rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    2001-01-01

    We study an extension of the economic production lot size model, where more than one production rate can be used during a cycle. Moreover, the production rates, as well as their corresponding runtimes are decision variables. First, we show that all production rates should be choosen in the interval...

  13. Static aeroelastic analysis including geometric nonlinearities based on reduced order model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changchuan Xie

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a method proposed for modeling large deflection of aircraft in nonlinear aeroelastic analysis by developing reduced order model (ROM. The method is applied for solving the static aeroelastic and static aeroelastic trim problems of flexible aircraft containing geometric nonlinearities; meanwhile, the non-planar effects of aerodynamics and follower force effect have been considered. ROMs are computational inexpensive mathematical representations compared to traditional nonlinear finite element method (FEM especially in aeroelastic solutions. The approach for structure modeling presented here is on the basis of combined modal/finite element (MFE method that characterizes the stiffness nonlinearities and we apply that structure modeling method as ROM to aeroelastic analysis. Moreover, the non-planar aerodynamic force is computed by the non-planar vortex lattice method (VLM. Structure and aerodynamics can be coupled with the surface spline method. The results show that both of the static aeroelastic analysis and trim analysis of aircraft based on structure ROM can achieve a good agreement compared to analysis based on the FEM and experimental result.

  14. Dusty Plasma Modeling of the Fusion Reactor Sheath Including Collisional-Radiative Effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dezairi, Aouatif; Samir, Mhamed; Eddahby, Mohamed; Saifaoui, Dennoun; Katsonis, Konstantinos; Berenguer, Chloe

    2008-01-01

    The structure and the behavior of the sheath in Tokamak collisional plasmas has been studied. The sheath is modeled taking into account the presence of the dust 2 and the effects of the charged particle collisions and radiative processes. The latter may allow for optical diagnostics of the plasma.

  15. Description of the new version 4.0 of the tritium model UFOTRI including user guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raskob, W.

    1993-08-01

    In view of the future operation of fusion reactors the release of tritium may play a dominant role during normal operation as well as after accidents. Because of its physical and chemical properties which differ significantly from those of other radionuclides, the model UFOTRI for assessing the radiological consequences of accidental tritium releases has been developed. It describes the behaviour of tritium in the biosphere and calculates the radiological impact on individuals and the population due to the direct exposure and by the ingestion pathways. Processes such as the conversion of tritium gas into tritiated water (HTO) in the soil, re-emission after deposition and the conversion of HTO into organically bound tritium, are considered. The use of UFOTRI in its probabilistic mode shows the spectrum of the radiological impact together with the associated probability of occurrence. A first model version was established in 1991. As the ongoing work on investigating the main processes of the tritium behaviour in the environment shows up new results, the model has been improved in several points. The report describes the changes incorporated into the model since 1991. Additionally provides the up-dated user guide for handling the revised UFOTRI version which will be distributed to interested organizations. (orig.) [de

  16. Extending the formal model of a spatial data infrastructure to include volunteered geographical information

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cooper, Antony K

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available -to-date VGI, have led to the integration of VGI into some SDIs. Therefore it is necessary to rethink our formal model of an SDI to accommodate VGI. We started our rethinking process with the SDI stakeholders in an attempt to establish which changes...

  17. Loss and thermal model for power semiconductors including device rating information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ke; Bahman, Amir Sajjad; Beczkowski, Szymon

    2014-01-01

    pre-defined by experience with poor design flexibility. Consequently a more complete loss and thermal model is proposed in this paper, which takes into account not only the electrical loading but also the device rating as input variables. The quantified correlation between the power loss, thermal...

  18. Social Rationality as a Unified Model of Man (Including Bounded Rationality)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindenberg, Siegwart

    2001-01-01

    In 1957, Simon published a collection of his essays under the title of “Models of Man: Social and Rational”. In the preface, he explains the choice for this title: All of the essays “are concerned with laying foundations for a science of man that will comfortably accommodate his dual nature as a

  19. Simple vibration modeling of structural fuzzy with continuous boundary by including two-dimensional spatial memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis, Lars; Ohlrich, Mogens

    2008-01-01

    is considered as one or more fuzzy substructures that are known in some statistical sense only. Experiments have shown that such fuzzy substructures often introduce a damping in the master which is much higher than the structural losses account for. A special method for modeling fuzzy substructures with a one...

  20. Situational effects of the school factors included in the dynamic model of educational effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Creerners, Bert; Kyriakides, Leonidas

    We present results of a longitudinal study in which 50 schools, 113 classes and 2,542 Cypriot primary students participated. We tested the validity of the dynamic model of educational effectiveness and especially its assumption that the impact of school factors depends on the current situation of

  1. Modeling the elastic behavior of ductile cast iron including anisotropy in the graphite nodules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andriollo, Tito; Thorborg, Jesper; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2016-01-01

    by means of a 3D periodic unit cell model. In this respect, an explicit procedure to enforce both periodic displacement and periodic traction boundary conditions in ABAQUS is presented, and the importance of fulfilling the traction continuity conditions at the unit cell boundaries is discussed. It is shown...

  2. A biologically inspired neural model for visual and proprioceptive integration including sensory training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saidi, Maryam; Towhidkhah, Farzad; Gharibzadeh, Shahriar; Lari, Abdolaziz Azizi

    2013-12-01

    Humans perceive the surrounding world by integration of information through different sensory modalities. Earlier models of multisensory integration rely mainly on traditional Bayesian and causal Bayesian inferences for single causal (source) and two causal (for two senses such as visual and auditory systems), respectively. In this paper a new recurrent neural model is presented for integration of visual and proprioceptive information. This model is based on population coding which is able to mimic multisensory integration of neural centers in the human brain. The simulation results agree with those achieved by casual Bayesian inference. The model can also simulate the sensory training process of visual and proprioceptive information in human. Training process in multisensory integration is a point with less attention in the literature before. The effect of proprioceptive training on multisensory perception was investigated through a set of experiments in our previous study. The current study, evaluates the effect of both modalities, i.e., visual and proprioceptive training and compares them with each other through a set of new experiments. In these experiments, the subject was asked to move his/her hand in a circle and estimate its position. The experiments were performed on eight subjects with proprioception training and eight subjects with visual training. Results of the experiments show three important points: (1) visual learning rate is significantly more than that of proprioception; (2) means of visual and proprioceptive errors are decreased by training but statistical analysis shows that this decrement is significant for proprioceptive error and non-significant for visual error, and (3) visual errors in training phase even in the beginning of it, is much less than errors of the main test stage because in the main test, the subject has to focus on two senses. The results of the experiments in this paper is in agreement with the results of the neural model

  3. A catchment-scale groundwater model including sewer pipe leakage in an urban system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peche, Aaron; Fuchs, Lothar; Spönemann, Peter; Graf, Thomas; Neuweiler, Insa

    2016-04-01

    Keywords: pipe leakage, urban hydrogeology, catchment scale, OpenGeoSys, HYSTEM-EXTRAN Wastewater leakage from subsurface sewer pipe defects leads to contamination of the surrounding soil and groundwater (Ellis, 2002; Wolf et al., 2004). Leakage rates at pipe defects have to be known in order to quantify contaminant input. Due to inaccessibility of subsurface pipe defects, direct (in-situ) measurements of leakage rates are tedious and associated with a high degree of uncertainty (Wolf, 2006). Proposed catchment-scale models simplify leakage rates by neglecting unsaturated zone flow or by reducing spatial dimensions (Karpf & Krebs, 2013, Boukhemacha et al., 2015). In the present study, we present a physically based 3-dimensional numerical model incorporating flow in the pipe network, in the saturated zone and in the unsaturated zone to quantify leakage rates on the catchment scale. The model consists of the pipe network flow model HYSTEM-EXTAN (itwh, 2002), which is coupled to the subsurface flow model OpenGeoSys (Kolditz et al., 2012). We also present the newly developed coupling scheme between the two flow models. Leakage functions specific to a pipe defect are derived from simulations of pipe leakage using spatially refined grids around pipe defects. In order to minimize computational effort, these leakage functions are built into the presented numerical model using unrefined grids around pipe defects. The resulting coupled model is capable of efficiently simulating spatially distributed pipe leakage coupled with subsurficial water flow in a 3-dimensional environment. References: Boukhemacha, M. A., Gogu, C. R., Serpescu, I., Gaitanaru, D., & Bica, I. (2015). A hydrogeological conceptual approach to study urban groundwater flow in Bucharest city, Romania. Hydrogeology Journal, 23(3), 437-450. doi:10.1007/s10040-014-1220-3. Ellis, J. B., & Revitt, D. M. (2002). Sewer losses and interactions with groundwater quality. Water Science and Technology, 45(3), 195

  4. Including Antenna Models in Microwave Imaging for Breast-Cancer Screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubæk, Tonny; Meincke, Peter

    2006-01-01

    Microwave imaging is emerging as a tool for screening for breast cancer, but the lack of methods for including the characteristics of the antennas of the imaging systems in the imaging algorithms limits their performance. In this paper, a method for incorporating the full antenna characteristics...

  5. Numerical models of single- and double-negative metamaterials including viscous and thermal losses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutanda Henriquez, Vicente; Sánchez-Dehesa, José

    2017-01-01

    Negative index acoustic metamaterials are artificial structures made of subwavelength units arranged in a lattice, whose effective acoustic parameters, bulk modulus and mass density, can be negative. In these materials, sound waves propagate inside the periodic structure, assumed rigid, showing...... extraordinary properties. We are interested in two particular cases: a double-negative metamaterial, where both parameters are negative at some frequencies, and a single-negative metamaterial with negative bulk modulus within a broader frequency band. In previous research involving the double-negative...... detailed understanding on how viscous and thermal losses affect the setups at different frequencies. The modeling of a simpler single-negative metamaterial also broadens this overview. Both setups have been modeled with quadratic BEM meshes. Each sample, scaled at two different sizes, has been represented...

  6. Paint Pavement Marking Performance Prediction Model That Includes the Impacts of Snow Removal Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    Hypothesized that snow plows wear down mountain road pavement markings. 2007 Craig et al. -Edge lines degrade slower than center/skip lines 2007...retroreflectivity to create the models. They discovered that paint pavement markings last 80% longer on Portland Cement Concrete than Asphalt Concrete at low AADT...retroreflectivity, while yellow markings lost 21%. Lu and Barter attributed the sizable degradation to snow removal, sand application, and studded

  7. An earth outgoing longwave radiation climate model. II - Radiation with clouds included

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shi-Keng; Smith, G. Louis; Bartman, Fred L.

    1988-01-01

    The model of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLWR) of Yang et al. (1987) is modified by accounting for the presence of clouds and their influence on OLWR. Cloud top temperature was adjusted so that the calculation agreed with NOAA scanning radiometer measurements. Cloudy sky cases were calculated for global average, zonal average, and worldwide distributed cases. The results were found to agree well with satellite observations.

  8. Assessing the psychological factors predicting workers' output ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigated job security, communication skills, interpersonal relationship and emotional intelligence as correlates of workers' output among local government employees in Oyo State. The research adopted descriptive design of an expose facto type. The research instruments used includes Workers' output scale, ...

  9. Modelling topical photodynamic therapy treatment including the continuous production of Protoporphyrin IX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, C. L.; Brown, C. T. A.; Wood, K.; Moseley, H.

    2016-11-01

    Most existing theoretical models of photodynamic therapy (PDT) assume a uniform initial distribution of the photosensitive molecule, Protoporphyrin IX (PpIX). This is an adequate assumption when the prodrug is systematically administered; however for topical PDT this is no longer a valid assumption. Topical application and subsequent diffusion of the prodrug results in an inhomogeneous distribution of PpIX, especially after short incubation times, prior to light illumination. In this work a theoretical simulation of PDT where the PpIX distribution depends on the incubation time and the treatment modality is described. Three steps of the PpIX production are considered. The first is the distribution of the topically applied prodrug, the second in the conversion from the prodrug to PpIX and the third is the light distribution which affects the PpIX distribution through photobleaching. The light distribution is modelled using a Monte Carlo radiation transfer model and indicates treatment depths of around 2 mm during daylight PDT and approximately 3 mm during conventional PDT. The results suggest that treatment depths are not only limited by the light penetration but also by the PpIX distribution.

  10. Situational effects of the school factors included in the dynamic model of educational effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bert Creemers

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available We present results of a longitudinal study in which 50 schools, 113 classes and 2,542 Cypriot primary students participated. We tested the validity of the dynamic model of educational effectiveness and especially its assumption that the impact of school factors depends on the current situation of the school and on the type of problems/difficulties the school is facing. Reference is made to the methods used to test this assumption of the dynamic model by measuring school effectiveness in mathematics, Greek language, and religious education over two consecutive school years. The main findings are as follows. School factors were found to have situational effects. Specifically, the development of a school policy for teaching and the school evaluation of policy for teaching were found to have stronger effects in schools where the quality of teaching at classroom level was low. Moreover, time stability in the effectiveness status of schools was identified and thereby changes in the functioning of schools were found not to have a significant impact on changes in the effectiveness status of schools. Implications of the findings for the development of the dynamic model and suggestions for further research are presented.

  11. Comparison of lead isotopes with source apportionment models, including SOM, for air particulates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gulson, Brian; Korsch, Michael; Dickson, Bruce; Cohen, David; Mizon, Karen; Michael Davis, J.

    2007-01-01

    We have measured high precision lead isotopes in PM 2.5 particulates from a highly-trafficked site (Mascot) and rural site (Richmond) in the Sydney Basin, New South Wales, Australia to compare with isotopic data from total suspended particulates (TSP) from other sites in the Sydney Basin and evaluate relationships with source fingerprints obtained from multi-element PM 2.5 data. The isotopic data for the period 1998 to 2004 show seasonal peaks and troughs that are more pronounced in the rural site for the PM 2.5 .samples but are consistent with the TSP. The Self Organising Map (SOM) method has been applied to the multi-element PM 2.5 data to evaluate its use in obtaining fingerprints for comparison with standard statistical procedures (ANSTO model). As seasonal effects are also significant for the multi-element data, the SOM modelling is reported as site and season dependent. At the Mascot site, the ANSTO model exhibits decreasing 206 Pb/ 204 Pb ratios with increasing contributions of fingerprints for 'secondary smoke' (industry), 'soil', 'smoke' and 'seaspray'. Similar patterns were shown by SOM winter fingerprints for both sites. At the rural site, there are large isotopic variations but for the majority of samples these are not associated with increased contributions from the main sources with the ANSTO model. For two winter sampling times, there are increased contributions from 'secondary industry', 'smoke', 'soil' and seaspray with one time having a source or sources of Pb similar to that of Mascot. The only positive relationship between increasing 206 Pb/ 204 Pb ratio and source contributions is found at the rural site using the SOM summer fingerprints, both of which show a significant contribution from sulphur. Several of the fingerprints using either model have significant contributions from black carbon (BC) and/or sulphur (S) that probably derive from diesel fuels and industrial sources. Increased contributions from sources with the SOM summer

  12. Early-Transition Output Decline Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crt Kostevc

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we revisit the issue of aggregate output decline that took place in the early transition period. We propose an alternative explanation of output decline that is applicable to Central- and Eastern-European countries. In the first part of the paper we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model that builds on work by Gomulka and Lane (2001. In particular, we consider price liberalization, interpreted as elimination of distortionary taxation, as a trigger of the output decline. We show that price liberalization in interaction with heterogeneous adjustment costs and non-employment benefits lead to aggregate output decline and surge in wage inequality. While these patterns are consistent with actual dynamics in CEE countries, this model cannot generate output decline in all sectors. Instead sectors that were initially taxed even exhibit output growth. Thus, in the second part we consider an alternative general equilibrium model with only one production sector and two types of labor and distortion in a form of wage compression during the socialist era. The trigger for labor mobility and consequently output decline is wage liberalization. Assuming heterogeneity of workers in terms of adjustment costs and non-employment benefits can explain output decline in all industries.

  13. Extending Galactic Habitable Zone Modeling to Include the Emergence of Intelligent Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Ian S; Gowanlock, Michael G

    2015-08-01

    Previous studies of the galactic habitable zone have been concerned with identifying those regions of the Galaxy that may favor the emergence of complex life. A planet is deemed habitable if it meets a set of assumed criteria for supporting the emergence of such complex life. In this work, we extend the assessment of habitability to consider the potential for life to further evolve to the point of intelligence--termed the propensity for the emergence of intelligent life, φI. We assume φI is strongly influenced by the time durations available for evolutionary processes to proceed undisturbed by the sterilizing effects of nearby supernovae. The times between supernova events provide windows of opportunity for the evolution of intelligence. We developed a model that allows us to analyze these window times to generate a metric for φI, and we examine here the spatial and temporal variation of this metric. Even under the assumption that long time durations are required between sterilizations to allow for the emergence of intelligence, our model suggests that the inner Galaxy provides the greatest number of opportunities for intelligence to arise. This is due to the substantially higher number density of habitable planets in this region, which outweighs the effects of a higher supernova rate in the region. Our model also shows that φI is increasing with time. Intelligent life emerged at approximately the present time at Earth's galactocentric radius, but a similar level of evolutionary opportunity was available in the inner Galaxy more than 2 Gyr ago. Our findings suggest that the inner Galaxy should logically be a prime target region for searches for extraterrestrial intelligence and that any civilizations that may have emerged there are potentially much older than our own.

  14. porewater chemistry experiment at Mont Terri rock laboratory. Reactive transport modelling including bacterial activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tournassat, Christophe; Gaucher, Eric C.; Leupin, Olivier X.; Wersin, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. An in-situ test in the Opalinus Clay formation, termed pore water Chemistry (PC) experiment, was run for a period of five years. It was based on the concept of diffusive equilibration whereby traced water with a composition close to that expected in the formation was continuously circulated and monitored in a packed off borehole. The main original focus was to obtain reliable data on the pH/pCO 2 of the pore water, but because of unexpected microbially- induced redox reactions, the objective was then changed to elucidate the biogeochemical processes happening in the borehole and to understand their impact on pH/pCO 2 and pH in the low permeability clay formation. The biologically perturbed chemical evolution of the PC experiment was simulated with reactive transport models. The aim of this modelling exercise was to develop a 'minimal-' model able to reproduce the chemical evolution of the PC experiment, i.e. the chemical evolution of solute inorganic and organic compounds (organic carbon, dissolved inorganic carbon etc...) that are coupled with each other through the simultaneous occurrence of biological transformation of solute or solid compounds, in-diffusion and out-diffusion of solute species and precipitation/dissolution of minerals (in the borehole and in the formation). An accurate description of the initial chemical conditions in the surrounding formation together with simplified kinetics rule mimicking the different phases of bacterial activities allowed reproducing the evolution of all main measured parameters (e.g. pH, TOC). Analyses from the overcoring and these simulations evidence the high buffer capacity of Opalinus clay regarding chemical perturbations due to bacterial activity. This pH buffering capacity is mainly attributed to the carbonate system as well as to the clay surfaces reactivity. Glycerol leaching from the pH-electrode might be the primary organic source responsible for

  15. Able but unintelligent: including positively stereotyped black subgroups in the stereotype content model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walzer, Amy S; Czopp, Alexander M

    2011-01-01

    The stereotype content model (SCM) posits that warmth and competence are the key components underlying judgments about social groups. Because competence can encompass different components (e.g., intelligence, talent) different group members may be perceived to be competent for different reasons. Therefore, we believe it may be important to specify the type of competence being assessed when examining perceptions of groups that are positively stereotyped (i.e., Black athletes and musical Blacks). Consistent with the SCM, these subgroups were perceived as high in competence-talent but not in competence-intelligence and low in warmth. Both the intelligence and talent frame of competence fit in the SCM's social structural hypothesis.

  16. Description and Application of A Model of Seepage under A Weir Including Mechanical Clogging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sroka Zbigniew

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses seepage flow under a damming structure (a weir in view of mechanical clogging in a thin layer at the upstream site. It was assumed that in this layer flow may be treated as one-dimensional (perpendicular to the layer, while elsewhere flow was modelled as two-dimensional. The solution in both zones was obtained in the discrete form using the finite element method and the Euler method. The effect of the clogging layer on seepage flow was modelled using the third kind boundary condition. Seepage parameters in the clogging layer were estimated based on laboratory tests conducted by Skolasińska [2006]. Typical problem was taken to provide simulation and indicate how clogging affects the seepage rate and other parameters of the flow. Results showed that clogging at the upstream site has a significant effect on the distribution of seepage velocity and hydraulic gradients. The flow underneath the structure decreases with time, but these changes are relatively slow.

  17. Modeling radiation dosimetry to predict cognitive outcomes in pediatric patients with CNS embryonal tumors including medulloblastoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merchant, Thomas E.; Kiehna, Erin N.; Li Chenghong; Shukla, Hemant; Sengupta, Saikat; Xiong Xiaoping; Gajjar, Amar; Mulhern, Raymond K.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Model the effects of radiation dosimetry on IQ among pediatric patients with central nervous system (CNS) tumors. Methods and Materials: Pediatric patients with CNS embryonal tumors (n = 39) were prospectively evaluated with serial cognitive testing, before and after treatment with postoperative, risk-adapted craniospinal irradiation (CSI) and conformal primary-site irradiation, followed by chemotherapy. Differential dose-volume data for 5 brain volumes (total brain, supratentorial brain, infratentorial brain, and left and right temporal lobes) were correlated with IQ after surgery and at follow-up by use of linear regression. Results: When the dose distribution was partitioned into 2 levels, both had a significantly negative effect on longitudinal IQ across all 5 brain volumes. When the dose distribution was partitioned into 3 levels (low, medium, and high), exposure to the supratentorial brain appeared to have the most significant impact. For most models, each Gy of exposure had a similar effect on IQ decline, regardless of dose level. Conclusions: Our results suggest that radiation dosimetry data from 5 brain volumes can be used to predict decline in longitudinal IQ. Despite measures to reduce radiation dose and treatment volume, the volume that receives the highest dose continues to have the greatest effect, which supports current volume-reduction efforts

  18. An Improved Heat Budget Estimation Including Bottom Effects for General Ocean Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carder, Kendall; Warrior, Hari; Otis, Daniel; Chen, R. F.

    2001-01-01

    This paper studies the effects of the underwater light field on heat-budget calculations of general ocean circulation models for shallow waters. The presence of a bottom significantly alters the estimated heat budget in shallow waters, which affects the corresponding thermal stratification and hence modifies the circulation. Based on the data collected during the COBOP field experiment near the Bahamas, we have used a one-dimensional turbulence closure model to show the influence of the bottom reflection and absorption on the sea surface temperature field. The water depth has an almost one-to-one correlation with the temperature rise. Effects of varying the bottom albedo by replacing the sea grass bed with a coral sand bottom, also has an appreciable effect on the heat budget of the shallow regions. We believe that the differences in the heat budget for the shallow areas will have an influence on the local circulation processes and especially on the evaporative and long-wave heat losses for these areas. The ultimate effects on humidity and cloudiness of the region are expected to be significant as well.

  19. On the modelling of semi-insulating GaAs including surface tension and bulk stresses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dreyer, W.; Duderstadt, F.

    2004-07-01

    Necessary heat treatment of single crystal semi-insulating Gallium Arsenide (GaAs), which is deployed in micro- and opto- electronic devices, generate undesirable liquid precipitates in the solid phase. The appearance of precipitates is influenced by surface tension at the liquid/solid interface and deviatoric stresses in the solid. The central quantity for the description of the various aspects of phase transitions is the chemical potential, which can be additively decomposed into a chemical and a mechanical part. In particular the calculation of the mechanical part of the chemical potential is of crucial importance. We determine the chemical potential in the framework of the St. Venant-Kirchhoff law which gives an appropriate stress/strain relation for many solids in the small strain regime. We establish criteria, which allow the correct replacement of the St. Venant-Kirchhoff law by the simpler Hooke law. The main objectives of this study are: (i) We develop a thermo-mechanical model that describes diffusion and interface motion, which both are strongly influenced by surface tension effects and deviatoric stresses. (ii) We give an overview and outlook on problems that can be posed and solved within the framework of the model. (iii) We calculate non-standard phase diagrams, i.e. those that take into account surface tension and non-deviatoric stresses, for GaAs above 786 C, and we compare the results with classical phase diagrams without these phenomena. (orig.)

  20. Effect of neurosteroids on a model lipid bilayer including cholesterol: An Atomic Force Microscopy study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacchi, Mattia; Balleza, Daniel; Vena, Giulia; Puia, Giulia; Facci, Paolo; Alessandrini, Andrea

    2015-05-01

    Amphiphilic molecules which have a biological effect on specific membrane proteins, could also affect lipid bilayer properties possibly resulting in a modulation of the overall membrane behavior. In light of this consideration, it is important to study the possible effects of amphiphilic molecule of pharmacological interest on model systems which recapitulate some of the main properties of the biological plasma membranes. In this work we studied the effect of a neurosteroid, Allopregnanolone (3α,5α-tetrahydroprogesterone or Allo), on a model bilayer composed by the ternary lipid mixture DOPC/bSM/chol. We chose ternary mixtures which present, at room temperature, a phase coexistence of liquid ordered (Lo) and liquid disordered (Ld) domains and which reside near to a critical point. We found that Allo, which is able to strongly partition in the lipid bilayer, induces a marked increase in the bilayer area and modifies the relative proportion of the two phases favoring the Ld phase. We also found that the neurosteroid shifts the miscibility temperature to higher values in a way similarly to what happens when the cholesterol concentration is decreased. Interestingly, an isoform of Allo, isoAllopregnanolone (3β,5α-tetrahydroprogesterone or isoAllo), known to inhibit the effects of Allo on GABAA receptors, has an opposite effect on the bilayer properties. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Multi-output Model with Box-Jenkins Operators of Quadratic Indices for Prediction of Malaria and Cancer Inhibitors Targeting Ubiquitin- Proteasome Pathway (UPP) Proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casañola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong; Pérez-Giménez, Facundo; Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Merino-Sanjuán, Matilde; Abad, Concepción; González-Díaz, Humberto

    2016-01-01

    The ubiquitin-proteasome pathway (UPP) is the primary degradation system of short-lived regulatory proteins. Cellular processes such as the cell cycle, signal transduction, gene expression, DNA repair and apoptosis are regulated by this UPP and dysfunctions in this system have important implications in the development of cancer, neurodegenerative, cardiac and other human pathologies. UPP seems also to be very important in the function of eukaryote cells of the human parasites like Plasmodium falciparum, the causal agent of the neglected disease Malaria. Hence, the UPP could be considered as an attractive target for the development of compounds with Anti-Malarial or Anti-cancer properties. Recent online databases like ChEMBL contains a larger quantity of information in terms of pharmacological assay protocols and compounds tested as UPP inhibitors under many different conditions. This large amount of data give new openings for the computer-aided identification of UPP inhibitors, but the intrinsic data diversity is an obstacle for the development of successful classifiers. To solve this problem here we used the Bob-Jenkins moving average operators and the atom-based quadratic molecular indices calculated with the software TOMOCOMD-CARDD (TC) to develop a quantitative model for the prediction of the multiple outputs in this complex dataset. Our multi-target model can predict results for drugs against 22 molecular or cellular targets of different organisms with accuracies above 70% in both training and validation sets.

  2. Including temperature in a wavefunction description of the dynamics of the quantum Rabi model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werther, Michael; Grossmann, Frank

    2018-01-01

    We present a wavefunction methodology to account for finite temperature initial conditions in the quantum Rabi model. The approach is based on the Davydov Ansatz together with a statistical sampling of the canonical harmonic oscillator initial density matrix. Equations of motion are gained from a variational principle and numerical results are compared to those of the thermal Hamiltonian approach. For a system consisting of a single spin and a single oscillator and for moderate coupling strength, we compare our new results with full quantum ones as well as with other Davydov-type results based on alternative sampling/summation strategies. All of these perform better than the ones based on the thermal Hamiltonian approach. The best agreement is shown by a Boltzmann weighting of individual eigenstate propagations. Extending this to a bath of many oscillators will, however, be very demanding numerically. The use of any one of the investigated stochastic sampling approaches will then be favorable.

  3. Dynamic Analysis of Thick Plates Including Deep Beams on Elastic Foundations Using Modified Vlasov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korhan Ozgan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic analysis of foundation plate-beam systems with transverse shear deformation is presented using modified Vlasov foundation model. Finite element formulation of the problem is derived by using an 8-node (PBQ8 finite element based on Mindlin plate theory for the plate and a 2-node Hughes element based on Timoshenko beam theory for the beam. Selective reduced integration technique is used to avoid shear locking problem for the evaluation of the stiffness matrices for both the elements. The effect of beam thickness, the aspect ratio of the plate and subsoil depth on the response of plate-beam-soil system is analyzed. Numerical examples show that the displacement, bending moments and shear forces are changed significantly by adding the beams.

  4. Robust and Adaptive OMR System Including Fuzzy Modeling, Fusion of Musical Rules, and Possible Error Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bloch Isabelle

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a system for optical music recognition (OMR in case of monophonic typeset scores. After clarifying the difficulties specific to this domain, we propose appropriate solutions at both image analysis level and high-level interpretation. Thus, a recognition and segmentation method is designed, that allows dealing with common printing defects and numerous symbol interconnections. Then, musical rules are modeled and integrated, in order to make a consistent decision. This high-level interpretation step relies on the fuzzy sets and possibility framework, since it allows dealing with symbol variability, flexibility, and imprecision of music rules, and merging all these heterogeneous pieces of information. Other innovative features are the indication of potential errors and the possibility of applying learning procedures, in order to gain in robustness. Experiments conducted on a large data base show that the proposed method constitutes an interesting contribution to OMR.

  5. Energy-based fatigue model for shape memory alloys including thermomechanical coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yahui; Zhu, Jihong; Moumni, Ziad; Van Herpen, Alain; Zhang, Weihong

    2016-03-01

    This paper is aimed at developing a low cycle fatigue criterion for pseudoelastic shape memory alloys to take into account thermomechanical coupling. To this end, fatigue tests are carried out at different loading rates under strain control at room temperature using NiTi wires. Temperature distribution on the specimen is measured using a high speed thermal camera. Specimens are tested to failure and fatigue lifetimes of specimens are measured. Test results show that the fatigue lifetime is greatly influenced by the loading rate: as the strain rate increases, the fatigue lifetime decreases. Furthermore, it is shown that the fatigue cracks initiate when the stored energy inside the material reaches a critical value. An energy-based fatigue criterion is thus proposed as a function of the irreversible hysteresis energy of the stabilized cycle and the loading rate. Fatigue life is calculated using the proposed model. The experimental and computational results compare well.

  6. Areal rainfall estimation using moving cars - computer experiments including hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabiei, Ehsan; Haberlandt, Uwe; Sester, Monika; Fitzner, Daniel; Wallner, Markus

    2016-09-01

    The need for high temporal and spatial resolution precipitation data for hydrological analyses has been discussed in several studies. Although rain gauges provide valuable information, a very dense rain gauge network is costly. As a result, several new ideas have emerged to help estimating areal rainfall with higher temporal and spatial resolution. Rabiei et al. (2013) observed that moving cars, called RainCars (RCs), can potentially be a new source of data for measuring rain rate. The optical sensors used in that study are designed for operating the windscreen wipers and showed promising results for rainfall measurement purposes. Their measurement accuracy has been quantified in laboratory experiments. Considering explicitly those errors, the main objective of this study is to investigate the benefit of using RCs for estimating areal rainfall. For that, computer experiments are carried out, where radar rainfall is considered as the reference and the other sources of data, i.e., RCs and rain gauges, are extracted from radar data. Comparing the quality of areal rainfall estimation by RCs with rain gauges and reference data helps to investigate the benefit of the RCs. The value of this additional source of data is not only assessed for areal rainfall estimation performance but also for use in hydrological modeling. Considering measurement errors derived from laboratory experiments, the result shows that the RCs provide useful additional information for areal rainfall estimation as well as for hydrological modeling. Moreover, by testing larger uncertainties for RCs, they observed to be useful up to a certain level for areal rainfall estimation and discharge simulation.

  7. ECO: a generic eutrophication model including comprehensive sediment-water interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smits, Johannes G C; van Beek, Jan K L

    2013-01-01

    The content and calibration of the comprehensive generic 3D eutrophication model ECO for water and sediment quality is presented. Based on a computational grid for water and sediment, ECO is used as a tool for water quality management to simulate concentrations and mass fluxes of nutrients (N, P, Si), phytoplankton species, detrital organic matter, electron acceptors and related substances. ECO combines integral simulation of water and sediment quality with sediment diagenesis and closed mass balances. Its advanced process formulations for substances in the water column and the bed sediment were developed to allow for a much more dynamic calculation of the sediment-water exchange fluxes of nutrients as resulting from steep concentration gradients across the sediment-water interface than is possible with other eutrophication models. ECO is to more accurately calculate the accumulation of organic matter and nutrients in the sediment, and to allow for more accurate prediction of phytoplankton biomass and water quality in response to mitigative measures such as nutrient load reduction. ECO was calibrated for shallow Lake Veluwe (The Netherlands). Due to restoration measures this lake underwent a transition from hypertrophic conditions to moderately eutrophic conditions, leading to the extensive colonization by submerged macrophytes. ECO reproduces observed water quality well for the transition period of ten years. The values of its process coefficients are in line with ranges derived from literature. ECO's calculation results underline the importance of redox processes and phosphate speciation for the nutrient return fluxes. Among other things, the results suggest that authigenic formation of a stable apatite-like mineral in the sediment can contribute significantly to oligotrophication of a lake after a phosphorus load reduction.

  8. A phantom model demonstration of tomotherapy dose painting delivery, including managed respiratory motion without motion management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kissick, Michael W; Mo Xiaohu; McCall, Keisha C; Mackie, Thomas R [Department of Medical Physics, Wisconsin Institutes for Medical Research, 111 Highland Avenue, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53705 (United States); Schubert, Leah K [Radiation Oncology Department, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE 68198 (United States); Westerly, David C, E-mail: mwkissick@wisc.ed [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Colorado Denver, Aurora, CO 80045 (United States)

    2010-05-21

    The aim of the study was to demonstrate a potential alternative scenario for accurate dose-painting (non-homogeneous planned dose) delivery at 1 cm beam width with helical tomotherapy (HT) in the presence of 1 cm, three-dimensional, intra-fraction respiratory motion, but without any active motion management. A model dose-painting experiment was planned and delivered to the average position (proper phase of a 4DCT scan) with three spherical PTV levels to approximate dose painting to compensate for hypothetical hypoxia in a model lung tumor. Realistic but regular motion was produced with the Washington University 4D Motion Phantom. A small spherical Virtual Water(TM) phantom was used to simulate a moving lung tumor inside of the LUNGMAN(TM) anthropomorphic chest phantom to simulate realistic heterogeneity uncertainties. A piece of 4 cm Gafchromic EBT(TM) film was inserted into the 6 cm diameter sphere. TomoTherapy, Inc., DQA(TM) software was used to verify the delivery performed on a TomoTherapy Hi-Art II(TM) device. The dose uncertainty in the purposeful absence of motion management and in the absence of large, low frequency drifts (periods greater than the beam width divided by the couch velocity) or randomness in the breathing displacement yields very favorable results. Instead of interference effects, only small blurring is observed because of the averaging of many breathing cycles and beamlets and the avoidance of interference. Dose painting during respiration with helical tomotherapy is feasible in certain situations without motion management. A simple recommendation is to make respiration as regular as possible without low frequency drifting. The blurring is just small enough to suggest that it may be acceptable to deliver without motion management if the motion is equal to the beam width or smaller (at respiration frequencies) when registered to the average position.

  9. A phantom model demonstration of tomotherapy dose painting delivery, including managed respiratory motion without motion management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kissick, Michael W; Mo Xiaohu; McCall, Keisha C; Mackie, Thomas R; Schubert, Leah K; Westerly, David C

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the study was to demonstrate a potential alternative scenario for accurate dose-painting (non-homogeneous planned dose) delivery at 1 cm beam width with helical tomotherapy (HT) in the presence of 1 cm, three-dimensional, intra-fraction respiratory motion, but without any active motion management. A model dose-painting experiment was planned and delivered to the average position (proper phase of a 4DCT scan) with three spherical PTV levels to approximate dose painting to compensate for hypothetical hypoxia in a model lung tumor. Realistic but regular motion was produced with the Washington University 4D Motion Phantom. A small spherical Virtual Water(TM) phantom was used to simulate a moving lung tumor inside of the LUNGMAN(TM) anthropomorphic chest phantom to simulate realistic heterogeneity uncertainties. A piece of 4 cm Gafchromic EBT(TM) film was inserted into the 6 cm diameter sphere. TomoTherapy, Inc., DQA(TM) software was used to verify the delivery performed on a TomoTherapy Hi-Art II(TM) device. The dose uncertainty in the purposeful absence of motion management and in the absence of large, low frequency drifts (periods greater than the beam width divided by the couch velocity) or randomness in the breathing displacement yields very favorable results. Instead of interference effects, only small blurring is observed because of the averaging of many breathing cycles and beamlets and the avoidance of interference. Dose painting during respiration with helical tomotherapy is feasible in certain situations without motion management. A simple recommendation is to make respiration as regular as possible without low frequency drifting. The blurring is just small enough to suggest that it may be acceptable to deliver without motion management if the motion is equal to the beam width or smaller (at respiration frequencies) when registered to the average position.

  10. Improvement in genetic evaluation of female fertility in dairy cattle using multiple-trait models including milk production traits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, C; Madsen, P; Lund, M S

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated the improvement in genetic evaluation of fertility traits by using production traits as secondary traits (MILK = 305-d milk yield, FAT = 305-d fat yield, and PROT = 305-d protein yield). Data including 471,742 records from first lactations of Denmark Holstein cows, covering...... (DATAC1, which only contained the first crop daughters) for proven bulls. In addition, the superiority of the models was evaluated by expected reliability of EBV, calculated from the prediction error variance of EBV. Based on these criteria, the models combining milk production traits showed better model...... stability and predictive ability than single-trait models for all the fertility traits, except for nonreturn rate within 56 d after first service. The stability and predictive ability for the model including MILK or PROT were similar to the model including all 3 milk production traits and better than...

  11. Regional modelling of future African climate north of 15S including greenhouse warming and land degradation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H. [Geographical Institute, University of Wuerzburg, Am Hubland, 97074 Wuerzburg (Germany); Thamm, H.P. [Geographical Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn (Germany)

    2007-08-15

    Previous studies have highlighted the crucial role of land degradation in tropical African climate. This effect urgently has to be taken into account when predicting future African climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Here, we present time slice experiments of African climate until 2025, using a high-resolution regional climate model. A supposable scenario of future land use changes, involving vegetation loss and soil degradation, is prescribed simultaneously with increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in order to detect, where the different forcings counterbalance or reinforce each other. This proceeding allows us to define the regions of highest vulnerability with respect to future freshwater availability and food security in tropical and subtropical Africa and may provide a decision basis for political measures. The model simulates a considerable reduction in precipitation amount until 2025 over most of tropical Africa, amounting to partly more than 500 mm (20-40% of the annual sum), particularly in the Congo Basin and the Sahel Zone. The change is strongest in boreal summer and basically reflects the pattern of maximum vegetation cover during the seasonal cycle. The related change in the surface energy fluxes induces a substantial near-surface warming by up to 7C. According to the modified temperature gradients over tropical Africa, the summer monsoon circulation intensifies and transports more humid air masses into the southern part of West Africa. This humidifying effect is overcompensated by a remarkable decrease in surface evaporation, leading to the overall drying tendency over most of Africa. Extreme daily rainfall events become stronger in autumn but less intense in spring. Summer and autumn appear to be characterized by more severe heat waves over Subsaharan West Africa. In addition, the Tropical Easterly Jet is weakening, leading to enhanced drought conditions in the Sahel Zone. All these results suggest that the local impact of land

  12. Economic analysis of energy supply and national economy on the basis of general equilibrium models. Applications of the input-output decomposition analysis and the Computable General Equilibrium models shown by the example of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Jong-Hwan.

    1993-01-01

    Firstly, this study investigaties the causes of sectoral growth and structural changes in the Korean economy. Secondly, it develops the borders of a consistent economic model in order to investigate simultaneously the different impacts of changes in energy and in the domestic economy. This is done any both the Input-Output-Decomposition analysis and a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE Model). The CGE Model eliminates the disadvantages of the IO Model and allows the investigation of the interdegenerative of the various energy sectors with the economy. The Social Accounting Matrix serves as the data basis of the GCE Model. Simulated experiments have been comet out with the help of the GCE Model, indicating the likely impact of an oil price shock in the economy-sectorally and generally. (orig.) [de

  13. Landau quantized dynamics and spectra for group-VI dichalcogenides, including a model quantum wire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horing, Norman J. M.

    2017-06-01

    This work is concerned with the derivation of the Green's function for Landau-quantized carriers in the Group-VI dichalcogenides. In the spatially homogeneous case, the Green's function is separated into a Peierls phase factor and a translationally invariant part which is determined in a closed form integral representation involving only elementary functions. The latter is expanded in an eigenfunction series of Laguerre polynomials. These results for the retarded Green's function are presented in both position and momentum representations, and yet another closed form representation is derived in circular coordinates in terms of the Bessel wave function of the second kind (not to be confused with the Bessel function). The case of a quantum wire is also addressed, representing the quantum wire in terms of a model one-dimensional δ (x ) -potential profile. This retarded Green's function for propagation directly along the wire is determined exactly in terms of the corresponding Green's function for the system without the δ (x ) -potential, and the Landau quantized eigenenergy dispersion relation is examined. The thermodynamic Green's function for the dichalcogenide carriers in a normal magnetic field is formulated here in terms of its spectral weight, and its solution is presented in a momentum/integral representation involving only elementary functions, which is subsequently expanded in Laguerre eigenfunctions and presented in both momentum and position representations.

  14. Landau quantized dynamics and spectra for group-VI dichalcogenides, including a model quantum wire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norman J. M. Horing

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This work is concerned with the derivation of the Green’s function for Landau-quantized carriers in the Group-VI dichalcogenides. In the spatially homogeneous case, the Green’s function is separated into a Peierls phase factor and a translationally invariant part which is determined in a closed form integral representation involving only elementary functions. The latter is expanded in an eigenfunction series of Laguerre polynomials. These results for the retarded Green’s function are presented in both position and momentum representations, and yet another closed form representation is derived in circular coordinates in terms of the Bessel wave function of the second kind (not to be confused with the Bessel function. The case of a quantum wire is also addressed, representing the quantum wire in terms of a model one-dimensional δ(x-potential profile. This retarded Green’s function for propagation directly along the wire is determined exactly in terms of the corresponding Green’s function for the system without the δ(x-potential, and the Landau quantized eigenenergy dispersion relation is examined. The thermodynamic Green’s function for the dichalcogenide carriers in a normal magnetic field is formulated here in terms of its spectral weight, and its solution is presented in a momentum/integral representation involving only elementary functions, which is subsequently expanded in Laguerre eigenfunctions and presented in both momentum and position representations.

  15. Criticality alarm output device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takashi.

    1994-01-01

    The present invention concerns a device used for detection of a critical accident in facilities which handle nuclear fuels, which especially removes the influences of external noises. Namely, a radiation detector outputs logic signals based on trip signals generated by the change of the radiation dose due to occurrence of a critical accident. The logic signal is sent to a logic judging circuit by way of a transmission path present individually in each of radiation detectors. The radiation detector comprises a first inverting means which sends a signal having a level inverted to a logic signal level to the logic judging circuit passing through a transmission path. The logic judging circuit comprises a second reversing means for inverting the level of the signal from the first inverting means and a signal judging means which outputs a conditional signal when the output sent from the second inverting means and the logic signal sent from the radiation detector arrive simultaneously. With such a constitution, influences of external noises intruded to the transmission path can be removed. (I.S.)

  16. Comparing urban solid waste recycling from the viewpoint of urban metabolism based on physical input–output model: A case of Suzhou in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Sai; Zhang Tianzhu

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Impacts of solid waste recycling on Suzhou’s urban metabolism in 2015 are analyzed. ► Sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. ► Technical levels of reusing scrap tires and food wastes should be improved. ► Other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. ► Secondary wastes from reusing food wastes and sludge should be concerned. - Abstract: Investigating impacts of urban solid waste recycling on urban metabolism contributes to sustainable urban solid waste management and urban sustainability. Using a physical input–output model and scenario analysis, urban metabolism of Suzhou in 2015 is predicted and impacts of four categories of solid waste recycling on urban metabolism are illustrated: scrap tire recycling, food waste recycling, fly ash recycling and sludge recycling. Sludge recycling has positive effects on reducing all material flows. Thus, sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. Moreover, technical levels of scrap tire recycling and food waste recycling should be improved to produce positive effects on reducing more material flows. Fly ash recycling for cement production has negative effects on reducing all material flows except solid wastes. Thus, other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. In addition, the utilization and treatment of secondary wastes from food waste recycling and sludge recycling should be concerned.

  17. Output-only modal parameter estimator of linear time-varying structural systems based on vector TAR model and least squares support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Si-Da; Ma, Yuan-Chen; Liu, Li; Kang, Jie; Ma, Zhi-Sai; Yu, Lei

    2018-01-01

    Identification of time-varying modal parameters contributes to the structural health monitoring, fault detection, vibration control, etc. of the operational time-varying structural systems. However, it is a challenging task because there is not more information for the identification of the time-varying systems than that of the time-invariant systems. This paper presents a vector time-dependent autoregressive model and least squares support vector machine based modal parameter estimator for linear time-varying structural systems in case of output-only measurements. To reduce the computational cost, a Wendland's compactly supported radial basis function is used to achieve the sparsity of the Gram matrix. A Gamma-test-based non-parametric approach of selecting the regularization factor is adapted for the proposed estimator to replace the time-consuming n-fold cross validation. A series of numerical examples have illustrated the advantages of the proposed modal parameter estimator on the suppression of the overestimate and the short data. A laboratory experiment has further validated the proposed estimator.

  18. Analyzing the Effects of the Iranian Energy Subsidy Reform Plan on Short- Run Marginal Generation Cost of Electricity Using Extended Input-Output Price Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Salimian

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Subsidizing energy in Iran has imposed high costs on country's economy. Thus revising energy prices, on the basis of a subsidy reform plan, is a vital remedy to boost up the economy. While the direct consequence of cutting subsidies on electricity generation costs can be determined in a simple way, identifying indirect effects, which reflect higher costs for input factors such as labor, is a challenging problem. In this paper, variables such as compensation of employees and private consumption are endogenized by using extended Input-Output (I-O price model to evaluate direct and indirect effects of electricity and fuel prices increase on economic subsectors. The determination of the short-run marginal generation cost of electricity using I-O technique with taken into account the Iranian targeted subsidy plan's influences is the main goal of this paper. Marginal cost of electricity, in various scenarios of price adjustment of energy, is estimated for three conventional categories of thermal power plants. Our results show that the raising the price of energy leads to an increase in the electricity production costs. Accordingly, the production costs will be higher than 1000 Rials per kWh until 2014 as predicted in the beginning of the reform plan by electricity suppliers.

  19. Clarifying the use of aggregated exposures in multilevel models: self-included vs. self-excluded measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etsuji Suzuki

    Full Text Available Multilevel analyses are ideally suited to assess the effects of ecological (higher level and individual (lower level exposure variables simultaneously. In applying such analyses to measures of ecologies in epidemiological studies, individual variables are usually aggregated into the higher level unit. Typically, the aggregated measure includes responses of every individual belonging to that group (i.e. it constitutes a self-included measure. More recently, researchers have developed an aggregate measure which excludes the response of the individual to whom the aggregate measure is linked (i.e. a self-excluded measure. In this study, we clarify the substantive and technical properties of these two measures when they are used as exposures in multilevel models.Although the differences between the two aggregated measures are mathematically subtle, distinguishing between them is important in terms of the specific scientific questions to be addressed. We then show how these measures can be used in two distinct types of multilevel models-self-included model and self-excluded model-and interpret the parameters in each model by imposing hypothetical interventions. The concept is tested on empirical data of workplace social capital and employees' systolic blood pressure.Researchers assume group-level interventions when using a self-included model, and individual-level interventions when using a self-excluded model. Analytical re-parameterizations of these two models highlight their differences in parameter interpretation. Cluster-mean centered self-included models enable researchers to decompose the collective effect into its within- and between-group components. The benefit of cluster-mean centering procedure is further discussed in terms of hypothetical interventions.When investigating the potential roles of aggregated variables, researchers should carefully explore which type of model-self-included or self-excluded-is suitable for a given situation

  20. Clarifying the use of aggregated exposures in multilevel models: self-included vs. self-excluded measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Etsuji; Yamamoto, Eiji; Takao, Soshi; Kawachi, Ichiro; Subramanian, S V

    2012-01-01

    Multilevel analyses are ideally suited to assess the effects of ecological (higher level) and individual (lower level) exposure variables simultaneously. In applying such analyses to measures of ecologies in epidemiological studies, individual variables are usually aggregated into the higher level unit. Typically, the aggregated measure includes responses of every individual belonging to that group (i.e. it constitutes a self-included measure). More recently, researchers have developed an aggregate measure which excludes the response of the individual to whom the aggregate measure is linked (i.e. a self-excluded measure). In this study, we clarify the substantive and technical properties of these two measures when they are used as exposures in multilevel models. Although the differences between the two aggregated measures are mathematically subtle, distinguishing between them is important in terms of the specific scientific questions to be addressed. We then show how these measures can be used in two distinct types of multilevel models-self-included model and self-excluded model-and interpret the parameters in each model by imposing hypothetical interventions. The concept is tested on empirical data of workplace social capital and employees' systolic blood pressure. Researchers assume group-level interventions when using a self-included model, and individual-level interventions when using a self-excluded model. Analytical re-parameterizations of these two models highlight their differences in parameter interpretation. Cluster-mean centered self-included models enable researchers to decompose the collective effect into its within- and between-group components. The benefit of cluster-mean centering procedure is further discussed in terms of hypothetical interventions. When investigating the potential roles of aggregated variables, researchers should carefully explore which type of model-self-included or self-excluded-is suitable for a given situation, particularly