WorldWideScience

Sample records for model output spatial

  1. Coupling NLDAS Model Output with MODIS Products for Improved Spatial Evapotranspiration Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Hogue, T.

    2008-12-01

    Given the growing concern over regional water supplies in much of the arid west, the quantification of water use by urban and agricultural landscapes is critically important. Water lost through evapotranspiration (ET) typically can not be recaptured or recycled, increasing the need for accurate accounting of ET in regional water management and planning. In this study, we investigate a method to better capture the spatial characteristics of ET by coupling operational North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) outputs and a previously developed MODIS-based Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) product. The resultant product is higher resolution (1km) than the NLDAS model ET outputs (~12.5 km) and provides improved estimates within highly heterogeneous terrain and landscapes. We undertake this study in the Southern California region which provides an excellent case study for examining the developed product's ability to estimate vegetation dynamics over rapidly growing, and highly-irrigated, urban ecosystems. General trends in both products are similar; however the coupled MODIS-NLDAS ET product shows higher spatial variability, better capturing land surface heterogeneity than the NLDAS-based ET. Improved ET representation is especially obvious during the spring season, when precipitation is muted and evaporative flux is dominant. We also quantify seasonal landscape water demand over urban landscapes in several major counties (i.e. Los Angeles, San Diego and Riverside) using the MODIS-NLDAS ET model.

  2. Effect of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on the uncertainty bounds of a snowmelt runoff model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquin, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    This study analyses the effect of precipitation spatial distribution uncertainty on the uncertainty bounds of a snowmelt runoff model's discharge estimates. Prediction uncertainty bounds are derived using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The model analysed is a conceptual watershed model operating at a monthly time step. The model divides the catchment into five elevation zones, where the fifth zone corresponds to the catchment glaciers. Precipitation amounts at each elevation zone i are estimated as the product between observed precipitation (at a single station within the catchment) and a precipitation factor FPi. Thus, these factors provide a simplified representation of the spatial variation of precipitation, specifically the shape of the functional relationship between precipitation and height. In the absence of information about appropriate values of the precipitation factors FPi, these are estimated through standard calibration procedures. The catchment case study is Aconcagua River at Chacabuquito, located in the Andean region of Central Chile. Monte Carlo samples of the model output are obtained by randomly varying the model parameters within their feasible ranges. In the first experiment, the precipitation factors FPi are considered unknown and thus included in the sampling process. The total number of unknown parameters in this case is 16. In the second experiment, precipitation factors FPi are estimated a priori, by means of a long term water balance between observed discharge at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration estimates and observed precipitation. In this case, the number of unknown parameters reduces to 11. The feasible ranges assigned to the precipitation factors in the first experiment are slightly wider than the range of fixed precipitation factors used in the second experiment. The mean squared error of the Box-Cox transformed discharge during the calibration period is used for the evaluation of the

  3. Study on Input—output Model of Compliant Precise Micro—Location Spatial Stage

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢先海; 廖道训

    2002-01-01

    A precise micro-location compliant stage with elastics-supported system is enmployed for investigations.The general motion of stage supported by elastic structure is described.The analyses of forward displecement and inverse displacement of stage are formulated.The study of input-output behavior of compliant mechanisms actually belongs to a stress-strain field problem.By using finite element analysis.the compliance coefficients of the stage supported by ring are calculated.Finally,a case is inverstigated to exemplity these formulae.

  4. WRF Model Output

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains WRF model output. There are three months of data: July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. For each month, several simulations were made: A...

  5. CMAQ Model Output

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ and CMAQ-VBS model output. This dataset is not publicly accessible because: Files too large. It can be accessed through the following means: via EPA's NCC tape...

  6. Output Model of Steel Plant

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Long-qiang; TIAN Nai-yuan; ZHANG Jin; XU An-jun

    2008-01-01

    Based on the requirement of compactivity, continuity, and high efficiency, and taking full advantage of cushion capability of flexible parts such as external refining in new generation steel plant, an output model of steel plant was established in terms of matching between BOF and caster. Using this model, the BOF nominal capacity is selected, the caster output and equipment amount are computed, and then the steel plant output is computed.

  7. Spatial coherence at the output of multimode optical fibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efimov, Anatoly

    2014-06-30

    The modulus of the complex degree of coherence is directly measured at the output of a step-index multimode optical fiber using lateral-sheering, delay-dithering Mach-Zehnder interferometer. Pumping the multimode fiber with monochromatic light always results in spatially-coherent output, whereas for the broadband pumping the modal dispersion of the fiber leads to a partially coherent output. While the coherence radius is a function of the numerical aperture only, the residual coherence outside the main peak is an interesting function of two dimensionless parameters: the number of non-degenerate modes and the ratio of the modal dispersion to the coherence time of the source. We develop a simple model describing this residual coherence and verify its predictions experimentally.

  8. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Trace Gas Columns Derived from WRF/Chem Regional Model Output: Planning for Geostationary Observations of Atmospheric Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Follette-Cook, M. B.; Pickering, K.; Crawford, J.; Duncan, B.; Loughner, C.; Diskin, G.; Fried, A.; Weinheimer, A.

    2015-01-01

    We quantify both the spatial and temporal variability of column integrated O3, NO2, CO, SO2, and HCHO over the Baltimore / Washington, DC area using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with on-line chemistry (WRF/Chem) for the entire month of July 2011, coinciding with the first deployment of the NASA Earth Venture program mission Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ). Using structure function analyses, we find that the model reproduces the spatial variability observed during the campaign reasonably well, especially for O3. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument will be the first NASA mission to make atmospheric composition observations from geostationary orbit and partially fulfills the goals of the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission. We relate the simulated variability to the precision requirements defined by the science traceability matrices of these space-borne missions. Results for O3 from 0- 2 km altitude indicate that the TEMPO instrument would be able to observe O3 air quality events over the Mid-Atlantic area, even on days when the violations of the air quality standard are not widespread. The results further indicated that horizontal gradients in CO from 0-2 km would be observable over moderate distances (= 20 km). The spatial and temporal results for tropospheric column NO2 indicate that TEMPO would be able to observe not only the large urban plumes at times of peak production, but also the weaker gradients between rush hours. This suggests that the proposed spatial and temporal resolutions for these satellites as well as their prospective precision requirements are sufficient to answer the science questions they are tasked to address.

  9. Model output: fact or artefact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke

    2015-04-01

    As a third-year PhD-student, I relatively recently entered the wonderful world of scientific Hydrology. A science that has many pillars that directly impact society, for example with the prediction of hydrological extremes (both floods and drought), climate change, applications in agriculture, nature conservation, drinking water supply, etcetera. Despite its demonstrable societal relevance, hydrology is often seen as a science between two stools. Like Klemeš (1986) stated: "By their academic background, hydrologists are foresters, geographers, electrical engineers, geologists, system analysts, physicists, mathematicians, botanists, and most often civil engineers." Sometimes it seems that the engineering genes are still present in current hydrological sciences, and this results in pragmatic rather than scientific approaches for some of the current problems and challenges we have in hydrology. Here, I refer to the uncertainty in hydrological modelling that is often neglected. For over thirty years, uncertainty in hydrological models has been extensively discussed and studied. But it is not difficult to find peer-reviewed articles in which it is implicitly assumed that model simulations represent the truth rather than a conceptualization of reality. For instance in trend studies, where data is extrapolated 100 years ahead. Of course one can use different forcing datasets to estimate the uncertainty of the input data, but how to prevent that the output is not a model artefact, caused by the model structure? Or how about impact studies, e.g. of a dam impacting river flow. Measurements are often available for the period after dam construction, so models are used to simulate river flow before dam construction. Both are compared in order to qualify the effect of the dam. But on what basis can we tell that the model tells us the truth? Model validation is common nowadays, but validation only (comparing observations with model output) is not sufficient to assume that a

  10. Coupling high-resolution precipitation forecasts and discharge predictions to evaluate the impact of spatial uncertainty in numerical weather prediction model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diomede, Tommaso; Marsigli, Chiara; Nerozzi, Fabrizio; Papetti, Paola; Paccagnella, Tiziana

    2008-11-01

    River hydrograph forecasts are highly sensitive to the space-time variability of the meteorological inputs, particularly in the case of watersheds characterised by a complex topography and whose hydrological processes are simulated by means of distributed rainfall-runoff models. An accurate representation of the space-time structure of the event that might occur is, therefore, essential when atmospheric and hydrological models are coupled in order to achieve successful streamflow predictions for medium-sized catchments. Even though the scale compatibility between atmospheric and hydrological models no longer seems to represent a serious problem for a direct one-way coupling, the quality and the reliability of deterministic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are often unsatisfactory in driving hydrological models. This is because uncertainties in QPFs are, nowadays, still considerable at the scales of interest for hydrological purposes. In this work, different configurations of the non-hydrostatic meteorological model Lokal Modell (LM) have been tested for four rain events, with the aim of improving the description of the phenomena related to the precipitation. Then, LM QPFs have been coupled with the distributed rainfall-runoff model TOPKAPI, in order to assess the results in terms of discharge forecast over the Reno river basin, a medium-sized catchment in northern Italy. The coupling of atmospheric and hydrological models offers a complementary tool to evaluate the meteorological model performance. In addition, an empirical approach is proposed in order to take into account the spatial uncertainty affecting the precipitation forecast. The methodology is based on an ensemble of future rainfall scenarios, which is built by shifting in eight different directions the precipitation patterns forecasted by LM. An ensemble of discharge forecasts is then generated by feeding the hydrological model with these rain time series, thus, enabling a probabilistic

  11. Modelling Analysis of Forestry Input-Output Elasticity in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guofeng Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on an extended economic model and space econometrics, this essay analyzed the spatial distributions and interdependent relationships of the production of forestry in China; also the input-output elasticity of forestry production were calculated. Results figure out there exists significant spatial correlation in forestry production in China. Spatial distribution is mainly manifested as spatial agglomeration. The output elasticity of labor force is equal to 0.6649, and that of capital is equal to 0.8412. The contribution of land is significantly negative. Labor and capital are the main determinants for the province-level forestry production in China. Thus, research on the province-level forestry production should not ignore the spatial effect. The policy-making process should take into consideration the effects between provinces on the production of forestry. This study provides some scientific technical support for forestry production.

  12. Research Output, Socialization, and the Biglan Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, John W.; Bean, John P.

    1981-01-01

    A test of the Biglan model of faculty subcultures using measures of research output and tests of the model controlling for the effects of faculty socialization are described. The Biglan model is found to be valid, and the distinctiveness of the Biglan groups appears to increase with the socialization of faculty into subject areas. (Author/MLW)

  13. Research Output, Socialization, and the Biglan Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creswell, John W.; Bean, John P.

    1981-01-01

    A test of the Biglan model of faculty subcultures using measures of research output and tests of the model controlling for the effects of faculty socialization are described. The Biglan model is found to be valid, and the distinctiveness of the Biglan groups appears to increase with the socialization of faculty into subject areas. (Author/MLW)

  14. Problems in Modelling Charge Output Accelerometers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomczyk Krzysztof

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents major issues associated with the problem of modelling change output accelerometers. The presented solutions are based on the weighted least squares (WLS method using transformation of the complex frequency response of the sensors. The main assumptions of the WLS method and a mathematical model of charge output accelerometers are presented in first two sections of this paper. In the next sections applying the WLS method to estimation of the accelerometer model parameters is discussed and the associated uncertainties are determined. Finally, the results of modelling a PCB357B73 charge output accelerometer are analysed in the last section of this paper. All calculations were executed using the MathCad software program. The main stages of these calculations are presented in Appendices A−E.

  15. Spatially distributed fiber sensor with dual processed outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Spillman, William B., Jr.; Claus, Richard O.; Meissner, K. E.; Chen, K.

    2005-05-01

    Given the rapid aging of the world"s population, improvements in technology for automation of patient care and documentation are badly needed. We have previously demonstrated a 'smart bed' that can non-intrusively monitor a patient in bed and determine a patient's respiration, heart rate and movement without intrusive or restrictive medical measurements. This is an application of spatially distributed integrating fiber optic sensors. The basic concept is that any patient movement that also moves an optical fiber within a specified area will produce a change in the optical signal. Two modal modulation approaches were considered, a statistical mode (STM) sensor and a high order mode excitation (HOME) sensor. The present design includes an STM sensor combined with a HOME sensor, using both modal modulation approaches. A special lens system allows only the high order modes of the optical fiber to be excited and coupled into the sensor. For handling output from the dual STM-HOME sensor, computer processing methods are discussed that offer comprehensive perturbation analysis for more reliable patient monitoring.

  16. Analysis of variance for model output

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.J.W.

    1999-01-01

    A scalar model output Y is assumed to depend deterministically on a set of stochastically independent input vectors of different dimensions. The composition of the variance of Y is considered; variance components of particular relevance for uncertainty analysis are identified. Several analysis of va

  17. Modelling Waste Output from Trout Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, J. O.; From, J.; Larsen, Torben

    1995-01-01

    The aim of waste modelling in aquaculture is to provide tools for simulating input, transformation, output and subsidiary degradation in recipients of organic compounds, nitrogen, and phosphorus. The direct purpose of this modelling is to make it possible for caretakers and water authorities...... to calculate waste discharge from existing and planned aquaculture activities. A special purpose is simulating outcome of waste water treatment and altered feeding programmes. Different submodels must be applied for P, N, and organics, as well as for the different phases of food and waste treatment. Altogether...

  18. A Biogeographic Assessment of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary - Surface Current Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface and sub-surface current model outputs were obtained from researchers at the University of Massachusetts-Boston to examine spatial and temporal current...

  19. A Biogeographic Assessment of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary - Subsurface Current Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface and sub-surface current model outputs were obtained from researchers at the University of Massachusetts-Boston to examine spatial and temporal current...

  20. Spatial cluster modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Lawson, Andrew B

    2002-01-01

    Research has generated a number of advances in methods for spatial cluster modelling in recent years, particularly in the area of Bayesian cluster modelling. Along with these advances has come an explosion of interest in the potential applications of this work, especially in epidemiology and genome research. In one integrated volume, this book reviews the state-of-the-art in spatial clustering and spatial cluster modelling, bringing together research and applications previously scattered throughout the literature. It begins with an overview of the field, then presents a series of chapters that illuminate the nature and purpose of cluster modelling within different application areas, including astrophysics, epidemiology, ecology, and imaging. The focus then shifts to methods, with discussions on point and object process modelling, perfect sampling of cluster processes, partitioning in space and space-time, spatial and spatio-temporal process modelling, nonparametric methods for clustering, and spatio-temporal ...

  1. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Scheuerer, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Statistical post-processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post-processing method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation accumulations based on ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). We model precipitation amounts by a generalized extreme value distribution that is left-censored at zero. This distribution permits modelling precipitation on the original scale without prior transformation of the data. A closed form expression for its continuous rank probability score can be derived and permits computationally efficient model fitting. We discuss an extension of our approach that incorporates further statistics characterizing the spatial variability of precipitation amounts in the vicinity of the location of interest. The proposed EMOS method is applied to daily 18-h forecasts of 6-h accumulated precipitation over Germany in 2011 using the COSMO-DE ensemble prediction system operated by the Germa...

  2. REFLECTIONS ON THE INOPERABILITY INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dietzenbacher, Erik; Miller, Ronald E.

    2015-01-01

    We argue that the inoperability input-output model is a straightforward - albeit potentially very relevant - application of the standard input-output model. In addition, we propose two less standard input-output approaches as alternatives to take into consideration when analyzing the effects of disa

  3. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  4. A Distance Function Model with Good and Bad Outputs

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    We present an approach that pursues an adequate representation of product transformation possibilities for a technology generating, in addition to marketed (good) products, some environmentally detrimental non-marketed byproducts (bad outputs). As the shadow price of a non-marketed output depends on its marginal transformation rates with marketed outputs, representation of technological relationships between different groups of outputs deserves a particular attention. We model the technology ...

  5. Determining state-space models from sequential output data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jiguan Gene

    1988-01-01

    This talk focuses on the determination of state-space models for large space systems using only the output data. The output data could be generated by the unknown or deliberate initial conditions of the space structure in question. We shall review some relevant fundamental work on the state-space modeling of sequential output data that is potentially applicable to large space structures. If formulated in terms of some generalized Markov parameters, this approach is in some sense similar to, but much simpler than, the Juang-Pappa Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) and the Ho-Kalman construction procedure.

  6. Space market model space industry input-output model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgin, Robert F.; Marchesini, Roberto

    1987-01-01

    The goal of the Space Market Model (SMM) is to develop an information resource for the space industry. The SMM is intended to contain information appropriate for decision making in the space industry. The objectives of the SMM are to: (1) assemble information related to the development of the space business; (2) construct an adequate description of the emerging space market; (3) disseminate the information on the space market to forecasts and planners in government agencies and private corporations; and (4) provide timely analyses and forecasts of critical elements of the space market. An Input-Output model of market activity is proposed which are capable of transforming raw data into useful information for decision makers and policy makers dealing with the space sector.

  7. Predoction Model of Data Envelopment Analysis with Undesirable Outputs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    边馥萍; 范宇

    2004-01-01

    Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has become a standard non-parametric approach to productivity analysis, especially to relative efficiency analysis of decision making units (DMUs). Extended to the prediction field, it can solve the prediction problem with multiple inputs and outputs which can not be solved easily by the regression analysis method.But the traditional DEA models can not solve the problem with undesirable outputs,so in this paper the inherent relationship between goal programming and the DEA method based on the relationship between multiple goal programming and goal programming is explored,and a mixed DEA model which can make all factors of inputs and undesirable outputs decrease in different proportions is built.And at the same time,all the factors of desirable outputs increase in different proportions.

  8. Alternative to Ritt's pseudodivision for finding the input-output equations of multi-output models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Nicolette; Anderson, Chris; DiStefano, Joseph J

    2012-09-01

    Differential algebra approaches to structural identifiability analysis of a dynamic system model in many instances heavily depend upon Ritt's pseudodivision at an early step in analysis. The pseudodivision algorithm is used to find the characteristic set, of which a subset, the input-output equations, is used for identifiability analysis. A simpler algorithm is proposed for this step, using Gröbner Bases, along with a proof of the method that includes a reduced upper bound on derivative requirements. Efficacy of the new algorithm is illustrated with several biosystem model examples.

  9. Building dynamic spatial environmental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karssenberg, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    An environmental model is a representation or imitation of complex natural phenomena that can be discerned by human cognitive processes. This thesis deals with the type of environmental models referred to as dynamic spatial environmental models. The word ‘spatial’ refers to the geographic domain whi

  10. Simultaneous exact model matching with stability by output feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiritsis, Konstadinos H.

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, is studied the problem of simultaneous exact model matching by dynamic output feedback for square and invertible linear time invariant systems. In particular, explicit necessary and sufficient conditions are established which guarantee the solvability of the problem with stability and a procedure is given for the computation of dynamic controller which solves the problem.

  11. System convergence in transport models: algorithms efficiency and output uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2015-01-01

    much in the literature. The paper first investigates several variants of the Method of Successive Averages (MSA) by simulation experiments on a toy-network. It is found that the simulation experiments produce support for a weighted MSA approach. The weighted MSA approach is then analysed on large......-scale in the Danish National Transport Model (DNTM). It is revealed that system convergence requires that either demand or supply is without random noise but not both. In that case, if MSA is applied to the model output with random noise, it will converge effectively as the random effects are gradually dampened...... in the MSA process. In connection to DNTM it is shown that MSA works well when applied to travel-time averaging, whereas trip averaging is generally infected by random noise resulting from the assignment model. The latter implies that the minimum uncertainty in the final model output is dictated...

  12. A model to predict the power output from wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.

  13. Modeling the power output of piezoelectric energy harvesters

    KAUST Repository

    Al Ahmad, Mahmoud

    2011-04-30

    Design of experiments and multiphysics analyses were used to develop a parametric model for a d 33-based cantilever. The analysis revealed that the most significant parameters influencing the resonant frequency are the supporting layer thickness, piezoelectric layer thickness, and cantilever length. On the other hand, the most important factors affecting the charge output arethe piezoelectric thickness and the interdigitated electrode dimensions. The accuracy of the developed model was confirmed and showed less than 1% estimation error compared with a commercial simulation package. To estimate the power delivered to a load, the electric current output from the piezoelectric generator was calculated. A circuit model was built and used to estimate the power delivered to a load, which compared favorably to experimentally published power data on actual cantilevers of similar dimensions. © 2011 TMS.

  14. Space-time data fusion under error in computer model output: an application to modeling air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrocal, Veronica J; Gelfand, Alan E; Holland, David M

    2012-09-01

    We provide methods that can be used to obtain more accurate environmental exposure assessment. In particular, we propose two modeling approaches to combine monitoring data at point level with numerical model output at grid cell level, yielding improved prediction of ambient exposure at point level. Extending our earlier downscaler model (Berrocal, V. J., Gelfand, A. E., and Holland, D. M. (2010b). A spatio-temporal downscaler for outputs from numerical models. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 15, 176-197), these new models are intended to address two potential concerns with the model output. One recognizes that there may be useful information in the outputs for grid cells that are neighbors of the one in which the location lies. The second acknowledges potential spatial misalignment between a station and its putatively associated grid cell. The first model is a Gaussian Markov random field smoothed downscaler that relates monitoring station data and computer model output via the introduction of a latent Gaussian Markov random field linked to both sources of data. The second model is a smoothed downscaler with spatially varying random weights defined through a latent Gaussian process and an exponential kernel function, that yields, at each site, a new variable on which the monitoring station data is regressed with a spatial linear model. We applied both methods to daily ozone concentration data for the Eastern US during the summer months of June, July and August 2001, obtaining, respectively, a 5% and a 15% predictive gain in overall predictive mean square error over our earlier downscaler model (Berrocal et al., 2010b). Perhaps more importantly, the predictive gain is greater at hold-out sites that are far from monitoring sites.

  15. Thermodynamic Model of Spatial Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Miron; Allen, P.

    1998-03-01

    We develop and test a thermodynamic model of spatial memory. Our model is an application of statistical thermodynamics to cognitive science. It is related to applications of the statistical mechanics framework in parallel distributed processes research. Our macroscopic model allows us to evaluate an entropy associated with spatial memory tasks. We find that older adults exhibit higher levels of entropy than younger adults. Thurstone's Law of Categorical Judgment, according to which the discriminal processes along the psychological continuum produced by presentations of a single stimulus are normally distributed, is explained by using a Hooke spring model of spatial memory. We have also analyzed a nonlinear modification of the ideal spring model of spatial memory. This work is supported by NIH/NIA grant AG09282-06.

  16. Modeling for spatial multilevel structural data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Suqin; He, Xiaoqun

    2013-03-01

    The traditional multilevel model assumed independence between groups. However, the datasets grouped by geographical units often has spatial dependence. The individual is influenced not only by its region but also by the adjacent regions, and level-2 residual distribution assumption of traditional multilevel model is violated. In order to deal with such spatial multilevel data, we introduce spatial statistics and spatial econometric models into multilevel model, and apply spatial parameters and adjacency matrix in traditional level-2 model to reflect the spatial autocorrelation. Spatial lag model express spatial effects. We build spatial multilevel model which consider both multilevel thinking and spatial correlation.

  17. Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Marco; Obleitner, Friedrich; Reijmer, Carleen H; Pohjola, Veijo A; Głowacki, Piotr; Kohler, Jack

    2016-05-27

    Large-scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, the limited accuracy and spatial resolution of RCM output pose limitations on mass balance simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, RCM output is still rarely available over larger regions or for longer time periods. This study evaluates the extent to which it is possible to derive reliable region-wide glacier mass balance estimates, using coarse resolution (10 km) RCM output for model forcing. Our data cover the entire Svalbard archipelago over one decade. To calculate mass balance, we use an index-based model. Model parameters are not calibrated, but the RCM air temperature and precipitation fields are adjusted using in situ mass balance measurements as reference. We compare two different calibration methods: root mean square error minimization and regression optimization. The obtained air temperature shifts (+1.43°C versus +2.22°C) and precipitation scaling factors (1.23 versus 1.86) differ considerably between the two methods, which we attribute to inhomogeneities in the spatiotemporal distribution of the reference data. Our modeling suggests a mean annual climatic mass balance of -0.05 ± 0.40 m w.e. a(-1) for Svalbard over 2000-2011 and a mean equilibrium line altitude of 452 ± 200 m  above sea level. We find that the limited spatial resolution of the RCM forcing with respect to real surface topography and the usage of spatially homogeneous RCM output adjustments and mass balance model parameters are responsible for much of the modeling uncertainty. Sensitivity of the results to model parameter uncertainty is comparably small and of minor importance.

  18. Spatially-Coupled Binary MacKay-Neal Codes for Channels with Non-Binary Inputs and Affine Subspace Outputs

    CERN Document Server

    Kasai, Kenta; Sakaniwa, Kohichi

    2012-01-01

    We study LDPC codes for the channel with $2^m$-ary input $\\underline{x}\\in \\GF(2)^m$ and output $\\underline{y}=\\underline{x}+\\underline{z}\\in \\GF(2)^m$. The receiver knows a subspace $V\\subset \\GF(2)^m$ from which $\\underline{z}=\\underline{y}-\\underline{x}$ is uniformly chosen. Or equivalently, the receiver receives an affine subspace $\\underline{y}-V$ where $\\underline{x}$ lies. We consider a joint iterative decoder involving the channel detector and the LDPC decoder. The decoding system considered in this paper can be viewed as a simplified model of the joint iterative decoder over non-binary modulated signal inputs e.g., $2^m$-QAM. We evaluate the performance of binary spatially-coupled MacKay-Neal code by density evolution. EXIT-like function curve calculations reveal that iterative decoding threshold values are very close to the Shannon limit.

  19. AFSC/REFM: FEAST (Forage Euphausiid in Space and Time NPRB B.70 Model output for 1970-2009 Hindcast (Run V146), Kerim Aydin and Andre Punt

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weekly biophysical and fish model output of FEAST. Part of The Bering Sea Project, FEAST is a high resolution (~10km2) spatial model that uses a Regional Ocean...

  20. A comparative analysis of multi-output frontier models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tao ZHANG; Eoghan GARVEY

    2008-01-01

    Recently, there have been more debates on the methods of measuring efficiency. The main objective of this paper is to make a sensitivity analysis for different frontier models and compare the results obtained from the different methods of estimating multi-output frontier for a specific application. The methods include stochastic distance function frontier, stochastic ray frontier,and data envelopment analysis. The stochastic frontier regressions with and without the inefficiency effects model are also com-pared and tested. The results indicate that there are significant correlations between the results obtained from the alternative estimation methods.

  1. Improving predictive mapping of deep-water habitats: Considering multiple model outputs and ensemble techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, Katleen; Jones, Daniel O. B.; Roberts, J. Murray; Huvenne, Veerle A. I.

    2016-07-01

    In the deep sea, biological data are often sparse; hence models capturing relationships between observed fauna and environmental variables (acquired via acoustic mapping techniques) are often used to produce full coverage species assemblage maps. Many statistical modelling techniques are being developed, but there remains a need to determine the most appropriate mapping techniques. Predictive habitat modelling approaches (redundancy analysis, maximum entropy and random forest) were applied to a heterogeneous section of seabed on Rockall Bank, NE Atlantic, for which landscape indices describing the spatial arrangement of habitat patches were calculated. The predictive maps were based on remotely operated vehicle (ROV) imagery transects high-resolution autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) sidescan backscatter maps. Area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy indicated similar performances for the three models tested, but performance varied by species assemblage, with the transitional species assemblage showing the weakest predictive performances. Spatial predictions of habitat suitability differed between statistical approaches, but niche similarity metrics showed redundancy analysis and random forest predictions to be most similar. As one statistical technique could not be found to outperform the others when all assemblages were considered, ensemble mapping techniques, where the outputs of many models are combined, were applied. They showed higher accuracy than any single model. Different statistical approaches for predictive habitat modelling possess varied strengths and weaknesses and by examining the outputs of a range of modelling techniques and their differences, more robust predictions, with better described variation and areas of uncertainties, can be achieved. As improvements to prediction outputs can be achieved without additional costly data collection, ensemble mapping approaches have clear value for spatial management.

  2. Integrated management of facility, process, and output: data model perspective

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEE Seunghoon; HAN Soonhung; MUN Duhwan

    2012-01-01

    As the manufacturing industry matures,vast amounts of data related to products are created by many kinds of engineering systems during the manufacturing phase.These include data for a variety of facilities,manufacturing processes,and the input and output of each process (input material,by-products,and intermediate and final products). Effective operation and maintenance of manufacturing facilities and eco-friendly products are gradually becoming important issues due to increased environmental regulations and changes in the enterprise business model.For this reason,increased efficiency in data management is necessary in the manufacturing industry. In this paper,existing data models for the integration of lifecycle data are analyzed according to their application domains.After the analysis,information requirements for the integrated management of facility,process,and output data are developed.According to these requirements,a data model appropriate for this integration is proposed.As an application case study,the use of the proposed data model for the effective operation and maintenance of manufacturing facilities is presented.Finally,benefit,limitation,and improvement of the proposed data model are discussed.

  3. A Power-Efficient Soft-Output Detector for Spatial-Multiplexing MIMO Communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsiao-Chi Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available VLSI implementation of a configurable power-efficient MIMO detector is proposed to support 4×4 spatial multiplexing and modulation from QPSK to 64-QAM. A novel tree search algorithm is proposed to enable the detector to provide soft outputs and to be implemented in parallel and pipelined hardware architecture. The frame error rate (FER of the detector approaches the quasi-optimal sphere decoder, with 0.5-dB degradation. Moreover, the proposed detector can operate at the optimal voltage under different configurations and detect/recover timing error at run time by a novel adaptive voltage scaling technique with double sampling circuitry. The proposed detector, using TSMC 0.18 μm single-poly six-metal CMOS process with a core area of 1.17×1.17 mm2, provides fixed throughput of 45 Mbps in 64-QAM configuration, 120 Mbps in 16-QAM configuration, and 60 Mbps in QPSK configuration. The normalized power efficiency of the design for 64-QAM and 16-QAM configurations is 1.56 Mbps/mW and 2.53 Mbps/mW, respectively. Compared with the conservative margin-based design, the proposed design achieves a 48.8% power saving.

  4. Neural Network Hydrological Modelling: Linear Output Activation Functions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahart, R. J.; Dawson, C. W.

    2005-12-01

    The power to represent non-linear hydrological processes is of paramount importance in neural network hydrological modelling operations. The accepted wisdom requires non-polynomial activation functions to be incorporated in the hidden units such that a single tier of hidden units can thereafter be used to provide a 'universal approximation' to whatever particular hydrological mechanism or function is of interest to the modeller. The user can select from a set of default activation functions, or in certain software packages, is able to define their own function - the most popular options being logistic, sigmoid and hyperbolic tangent. If a unit does not transform its inputs it is said to possess a 'linear activation function' and a combination of linear activation functions will produce a linear solution; whereas the use of non-linear activation functions will produce non-linear solutions in which the principle of superposition does not hold. For hidden units, speed of learning and network complexities are important issues. For the output units, it is desirable to select an activation function that is suited to the distribution of the target values: e.g. binary targets (logistic); categorical targets (softmax); continuous-valued targets with a bounded range (logistic / tanh); positive target values with no known upper bound (exponential; but beware of overflow); continuous-valued targets with no known bounds (linear). It is also standard practice in most hydrological applications to use the default software settings and to insert a set of identical non-linear activation functions in the hidden layer and output layer processing units. Mixed combinations have nevertheless been reported in several hydrological modelling papers and the full ramifications of such activities requires further investigation and assessment i.e. non-linear activation functions in the hidden units connected to linear or clipped-linear activation functions in the output unit. There are two

  5. 3D Visualization of Hydrological Model Outputs For a Better Understanding of Multi-Scale Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, J.; Schertzer, D. J. M.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.

    2014-12-01

    During the last decades, many hydrological models has been created to simulate extreme events or scenarios on catchments. The classical outputs of these models are 2D maps, time series or graphs, which are easily understood by scientists, but not so much by many stakeholders, e.g. mayors or local authorities, and the general public. One goal of the Blue Green Dream project is to create outputs that are adequate for them. To reach this goal, we decided to convert most of the model outputs into a unique 3D visualization interface that combines all of them. This conversion has to be performed with an hydrological thinking to keep the information consistent with the context and the raw outputs.We focus our work on the conversion of the outputs of the Multi-Hydro (MH) model, which is physically based, fully distributed and with a GIS data interface. MH splits the urban water cycle into 4 components: the rainfall, the surface runoff, the infiltration and the drainage. To each of them, corresponds a modeling module with specific inputs and outputs. The superimposition of all this information will highlight the model outputs and help to verify the quality of the raw input data. For example, the spatial and the time variability of the rain generated by the rainfall module will be directly visible in 4D (3D + time) before running a full simulation. It is the same with the runoff module: because the result quality depends of the resolution of the rasterized land use, it will confirm or not the choice of the cell size.As most of the inputs and outputs are GIS files, two main conversions will be applied to display the results into 3D. First, a conversion from vector files to 3D objects. For example, buildings are defined in 2D inside a GIS vector file. Each polygon can be extruded with an height to create volumes. The principle is the same for the roads but an intrusion, instead of an extrusion, is done inside the topography file. The second main conversion is the raster

  6. Input--output capital coefficients for energy technologies. [Input-output model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tessmer, R.G. Jr.

    1976-12-01

    Input-output capital coefficients are presented for five electric and seven non-electric energy technologies. They describe the durable goods and structures purchases (at a 110 sector level of detail) that are necessary to expand productive capacity in each of twelve energy source sectors. Coefficients are defined in terms of 1967 dollar purchases per 10/sup 6/ Btu of output from new capacity, and original data sources include Battelle Memorial Institute, the Harvard Economic Research Project, The Mitre Corp., and Bechtel Corp. The twelve energy sectors are coal, crude oil and gas, shale oil, methane from coal, solvent refined coal, refined oil products, pipeline gas, coal combined-cycle electric, fossil electric, LWR electric, HTGR electric, and hydroelectric.

  7. Competition in spatial location models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Webers, H.M.

    1996-01-01

    Models of spatial competition are designed and analyzed to describe the fact that space, by its very nature, is a source of market power. This field of research, lying at the interface of game theory and economics, has attracted much interest because location problems are related to many aspects of

  8. Competition in spatial location models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Webers, H.M.

    1996-01-01

    Models of spatial competition are designed and analyzed to describe the fact that space, by its very nature, is a source of market power. This field of research, lying at the interface of game theory and economics, has attracted much interest because location problems are related to many aspects of

  9. WATER TEMPERATURE, SALINITY, and currents speed from 2011-04-01 to 2013-07-30 from model output (NCEI Accession 0131071)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains output of a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution...

  10. Regionalisation of statistical model outputs creating gridded data sets for Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höpp, Simona Andrea; Rauthe, Monika; Deutschländer, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    The goal of the German research program ReKliEs-De (regional climate projection ensembles for Germany, http://.reklies.hlug.de) is to distribute robust information about the range and the extremes of future climate for Germany and its neighbouring river catchment areas. This joint research project is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and was initiated by the German Federal States. The Project results are meant to support the development of adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of future climate change. The aim of our part of the project is to adapt and transfer the regionalisation methods of the gridded hydrological data set (HYRAS) from daily station data to the station based statistical regional climate model output of WETTREG (regionalisation method based on weather patterns). The WETTREG model output covers the period of 1951 to 2100 with a daily temporal resolution. For this, we generate a gridded data set of the WETTREG output for precipitation, air temperature and relative humidity with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km x 12.5 km, which is common for regional climate models. Thus, this regionalisation allows comparing statistical to dynamical climate model outputs. The HYRAS data set was developed by the German Meteorological Service within the German research program KLIWAS (www.kliwas.de) and consists of daily gridded data for Germany and its neighbouring river catchment areas. It has a spatial resolution of 5 km x 5 km for the entire domain for the hydro-meteorological elements precipitation, air temperature and relative humidity and covers the period of 1951 to 2006. After conservative remapping the HYRAS data set is also convenient for the validation of climate models. The presentation will consist of two parts to present the actual state of the adaptation of the HYRAS regionalisation methods to the statistical regional climate model WETTREG: First, an overview of the HYRAS data set and the regionalisation

  11. Multi-model analysis of terrestrial carbon cycles in Japan: reducing uncertainties in model outputs among different terrestrial biosphere models using flux observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ichii

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial biosphere models show large uncertainties when simulating carbon and water cycles, and reducing these uncertainties is a priority for developing more accurate estimates of both terrestrial ecosystem statuses and future climate changes. To reduce uncertainties and improve the understanding of these carbon budgets, we investigated the ability of flux datasets to improve model simulations and reduce variabilities among multi-model outputs of terrestrial biosphere models in Japan. Using 9 terrestrial biosphere models (Support Vector Machine-based regressions, TOPS, CASA, VISIT, Biome-BGC, DAYCENT, SEIB, LPJ, and TRIFFID, we conducted two simulations: (1 point simulations at four flux sites in Japan and (2 spatial simulations for Japan with a default model (based on original settings and an improved model (based on calibration using flux observations. Generally, models using default model settings showed large deviations in model outputs from observation with large model-by-model variability. However, after we calibrated the model parameters using flux observations (GPP, RE and NEP, most models successfully simulated seasonal variations in the carbon cycle, with less variability among models. We also found that interannual variations in the carbon cycle are mostly consistent among models and observations. Spatial analysis also showed a large reduction in the variability among model outputs, and model calibration using flux observations significantly improved the model outputs. These results show that to reduce uncertainties among terrestrial biosphere models, we need to conduct careful validation and calibration with available flux observations. Flux observation data significantly improved terrestrial biosphere models, not only on a point scale but also on spatial scales.

  12. Multi-output ANN Model for Prediction of Seven Meteorological Parameters in a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raza, Khalid; Jothiprakash, V.

    2014-12-01

    The meteorological parameters plays a vital role for determining various water demand in the water resource systems, planning, management and operation. Thus, accurate prediction of meteorological variables at different spatial and temporal intervals is the key requirement. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the most widely used data driven modelling techniques with lots of good features like, easy applications, high accuracy in prediction and to predict the multi-output complex non-linear relationships. In this paper, a Multi-input Multi-output (MIMO) ANN model has been developed and applied to predict seven important meteorological parameters, such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and evaporation concurrently. Several types of ANN, such as multilayer perceptron, generalized feedforward neural network, radial basis function and recurrent neural network with multi hidden layer and varying number of neurons at the hidden layer, has been developed, trained, validated and tested. From the results, it is found that the recurrent MIMO-ANN having 28 neurons in a single hidden layer, trained using hyperbolic tangent transfer function with a learning rate of 0.3 and momentum factor of 0.7 performed well over the other types of MIMO-ANN models. The MIMO ANN model performed well for all parameters with higher correlation and other performance indicators except for sunshine hours. Due to erratic nature, the importance of each of the input over the output through sensitivity analysis indicated that relative humidity has highest influence while others have equal influence over the output.

  13. Comparison of individual-based model output to data using a model of walleye pollock early life history in the Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinckley, Sarah; Parada, Carolina; Horne, John K.; Mazur, Michael; Woillez, Mathieu

    2016-10-01

    Biophysical individual-based models (IBMs) have been used to study aspects of early life history of marine fishes such as recruitment, connectivity of spawning and nursery areas, and marine reserve design. However, there is no consistent approach to validating the spatial outputs of these models. In this study, we hope to rectify this gap. We document additions to an existing individual-based biophysical model for Alaska walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), some simulations made with this model and methods that were used to describe and compare spatial output of the model versus field data derived from ichthyoplankton surveys in the Gulf of Alaska. We used visual methods (e.g. distributional centroids with directional ellipses), several indices (such as a Normalized Difference Index (NDI), and an Overlap Coefficient (OC), and several statistical methods: the Syrjala method, the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, and a geostatistical method for comparing spatial indices. We assess the utility of these different methods in analyzing spatial output and comparing model output to data, and give recommendations for their appropriate use. Visual methods are useful for initial comparisons of model and data distributions. Metrics such as the NDI and OC give useful measures of co-location and overlap, but care must be taken in discretizing the fields into bins. The Getis-Ord Gi* statistic is useful to determine the patchiness of the fields. The Syrjala method is an easily implemented statistical measure of the difference between the fields, but does not give information on the details of the distributions. Finally, the geostatistical comparison of spatial indices gives good information of details of the distributions and whether they differ significantly between the model and the data. We conclude that each technique gives quite different information about the model-data distribution comparison, and that some are easy to apply and some more complex. We also give recommendations for

  14. Constitution of a catchment virtual observatory for sharing flow and transport models outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Zahra; Rousseau-Gueutin, Pauline; Kolbe, Tamara; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Marçais, Jean; Peiffer, Stefan; Frei, Sven; Bishop, Kevin; Pichelin, Pascal; Pinay, Gilles; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald

    2016-12-01

    Predicting hydrological catchment behavior based on measurable (and preferably widely available) catchment characteristics has been one of the main goals of hydrological modelling. Residence time distributions provide synoptic information about catchment functioning and can be useful metrics to predict their behaviors. Moreover, residence time distributions highlight a wide range of characteristic scales (spatial and temporal) and mixing processes. However, catchment-specific heterogeneity means that the link between residence time distributions and catchment characteristics is complex. Investigating this link for a wide range of catchments could reveal the role of topography, geology, land-use, climate and other factors in controlling catchment hydrology. Meaningful comparison is often challenging given the diversity of data and model structures and formats. To address this need, we are introducing a new virtual platform called Catchment virtual Observatory for Sharing flow and transport models outputs (COnSOrT). The goal of COnSOrT is to promote catchment intercomparison by sharing calibrated model outputs. Compiling commensurable results in COnSOrT will help evaluate model performance, quantify inter-catchment controls on hydrology, and identify research gaps and priorities in catchment science. Researchers interested in sharing or using calibrated model results are invited to participate in the virtual observatory. Participants may test post-processing methods on a wide range of catchment environments to evaluate the generality of their findings.

  15. Validation of transpulmonary thermodilution cardiac output measurement in a pediatric animal model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lemson, J.; Boode, W.P. de; Hopman, J.C.W.; Singh, S.K.; Hoeven, J.G. van der

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to validate the transpulmonary thermodilution cardiac output measurement (CO(TPTD)) in a controlled newborn animal model under various hemodynamic conditions with special emphasis on low cardiac output. DESIGN: Prospective, experimental, pediatric animal study. S

  16. Model outputs for each hotspot site to identify the likely environmental, economic and social effects of proposed remediation strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleskens, Luuk; Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike

    2012-01-01

    Portuguese sites) a fire severity index under current conditions and under different technologies. The DESMICE model is informed by WB3 WOCAT database records, economic WB4 experimental results, additionally requested data on spatial variability of costs and benefits, and secondary data. It applies spatially...... multiple stakeholders in very different contexts into the modelling process, in order to enhance both the realism and relevance of outputs for policy and practice; b) site-selection modelling is being applied to land degradation mitigation to enable landscape-scale assessments of the most economically...

  17. Stochastic frontier production model with undesirable outputs:An application to an HIV immunology model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BIAN Fuping; DAI Min

    2005-01-01

    This paper extends the stochastic frontier production theory to the case of multiple outputs and calculate the measurement of efficiency using the production theory. We further apply this method to construct the stochastic frontier production model with undesirable outputs. Finally, the model is used in an HIV immunology model and the efficient drug treatment strategies are then explored.All the models are estimated using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. Stochastic errors are considered in this model, which is an advantage over other deterministic efficiency models. Some of our conclusions agree with those published in related papers.

  18. Spatial-Temporal Correlation Properties of the 3GPP Spatial Channel Model and the Kronecker MIMO Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Hanguang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO systems is greatly influenced by the spatial-temporal correlation properties of the underlying MIMO channels. This paper investigates the spatial-temporal correlation characteristics of the spatial channel model (SCM in the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP and the Kronecker-based stochastic model (KBSM at three levels, namely, the cluster level, link level, and system level. The KBSM has both the spatial separability and spatial-temporal separability at all the three levels. The spatial-temporal separability is observed for the SCM only at the system level, but not at the cluster and link levels. The SCM shows the spatial separability at the link and system levels, but not at the cluster level since its spatial correlation is related to the joint distribution of the angle of arrival (AoA and angle of departure (AoD. The KBSM with the Gaussian-shaped power azimuth spectrum (PAS is found to fit best the 3GPP SCM in terms of the spatial correlations. Despite its simplicity and analytical tractability, the KBSM is restricted to model only the average spatial-temporal behavior of MIMO channels. The SCM provides more insights of the variations of different MIMO channel realizations, but the implementation complexity is relatively high.

  19. Spatial-Temporal Correlation Properties of the 3GPP Spatial Channel Model and the Kronecker MIMO Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Xiang Wang

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO systems is greatly influenced by the spatial-temporal correlation properties of the underlying MIMO channels. This paper investigates the spatial-temporal correlation characteristics of the spatial channel model (SCM in the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP and the Kronecker-based stochastic model (KBSM at three levels, namely, the cluster level, link level, and system level. The KBSM has both the spatial separability and spatial-temporal separability at all the three levels. The spatial-temporal separability is observed for the SCM only at the system level, but not at the cluster and link levels. The SCM shows the spatial separability at the link and system levels, but not at the cluster level since its spatial correlation is related to the joint distribution of the angle of arrival (AoA and angle of departure (AoD. The KBSM with the Gaussian-shaped power azimuth spectrum (PAS is found to fit best the 3GPP SCM in terms of the spatial correlations. Despite its simplicity and analytical tractability, the KBSM is restricted to model only the average spatial-temporal behavior of MIMO channels. The SCM provides more insights of the variations of different MIMO channel realizations, but the implementation complexity is relatively high.

  20. An Estimation of X-Radiation Output using Mathematic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchart Kothan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Diagnosis x-ray radiation safety is key in medical examination. The quantity of patient radiation doses is beneficial for radiation protection of the patient. It was proposed that the equation for estimating the output (milliReongent, mR from x-ray machines. Approach: A was 0.5, 0.8 and 1.0 for single phase, three phases and high frequency x-ray machines, respectively. To compare calculated output (mR used this equation and measured output (mR used ionizing chamber dosimeter. Results: The difference between the calculated and measured radiation dose was quite small. Conclusion: This equation could use to estimate output and it altered the reliable and inexpensive techniques for patient dose measurement in routine diagnostic x-ray examinations.

  1. Emergence of Strange Spatial Pattern in a Spatial Epidemic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Gui-Quan; JIN Zhen; LIU Quan-Xing; LI Li

    2008-01-01

    Pattern formation of a spatial epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate kI2 S/ (1 + αI2) is investigated. Our results show that strange spatial dynamics, i.e., filament-like pattern, can be obtained by both mathematical analysis and numerical simulation, which are different from the previous results in the spatial epidemic model such as stripe-like or spotted or coexistence of both pattern and so on. The obtained results well extend the finding of pattern formation in the epidemic model and may well explain the distribution of the infected of some epidemic.

  2. Modelling the spatial distribution of ammonia emissions in the UK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hellsten, S. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Institute of Geography, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP (United Kingdom); IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd, P.O. Box 5302, SE-400 14 Gothenburg (Sweden)], E-mail: sofie.hellsten@ivl.se; Dragosits, U. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Place, C.J. [Institute of Geography, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP (United Kingdom); Vieno, M. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Institute of Atmospheric and Environmental Science, School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Crew Building, The King' s buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JN (United Kingdom); Dore, A.J. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Misselbrook, T.H. [Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Exeter EX 2SB (United Kingdom); Tang, Y.S.; Sutton, M.A. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB (United Kingdom)

    2008-08-15

    Ammonia emissions (NH{sub 3}) are characterised by a high spatial variability at a local scale. When modelling the spatial distribution of NH{sub 3} emissions, it is important to provide robust emission estimates, since the model output is used to assess potential environmental impacts, e.g. exceedance of critical loads. The aim of this study was to provide a new, updated spatial NH{sub 3} emission inventory for the UK for the year 2000, based on an improved modelling approach and the use of updated input datasets. The AENEID model distributes NH{sub 3} emissions from a range of agricultural activities, such as grazing and housing of livestock, storage and spreading of manures, and fertilizer application, at a 1-km grid resolution over the most suitable landcover types. The results of the emission calculation for the year 2000 are analysed and the methodology is compared with a previous spatial emission inventory for 1996. - It is important to provide robust estimates of the spatial distribution of ammonia emissions, since the model output is used to assess potential environmental impacts, e.g. through the exceedance of critical loads.

  3. Balancing Europe's wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grams, Christian M; Beerli, Remo; Pfenninger, Stefan; Staffell, Iain; Wernli, Heini

    2017-08-01

    As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2-5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour - specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea - would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.

  4. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing input-output and computable general equilibrium models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koks, Elco E.; Carrera, Lorenzo; Jonkeren, Olaf; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Husby, Trond G.; Thissen, Mark; Standardi, Gabriele; Mysiak, Jaroslav

    2016-08-01

    A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of them in combination with noneconomic methods. While both IO and CGE models are widely used, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds. Few studies have compared disaster impacts of different model types in a systematic way and for the same geographical area, using similar input data. Such a comparison is valuable from both a scientific and policy perspective as the magnitude and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses are born likely to vary with the chosen modelling approach (IO, CGE, or hybrid). Hence, regional disaster impact loss estimates resulting from a range of models facilitate better decisions and policy making. Therefore, this study analyses the economic consequences for a specific case study, using three regional disaster impact models: two hybrid IO models and a CGE model. The case study concerns two flood scenarios in the Po River basin in Italy. Modelling results indicate that the difference in estimated total (national) economic losses and the regional distribution of those losses may vary by up to a factor of 7 between the three models, depending on the type of recovery path. Total economic impact, comprising all Italian regions, is negative in all models though.

  5. Unleashing spatially distributed ecohydrology modeling using Big Data tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, B.; Idaszak, R.

    2015-12-01

    Physically based spatially distributed ecohydrology models are useful for answering science and management questions related to the hydrology and biogeochemistry of prairie, savanna, forested, as well as urbanized ecosystems. However, these models can produce hundreds of gigabytes of spatial output for a single model run over decadal time scales when run at regional spatial scales and moderate spatial resolutions (~100-km2+ at 30-m spatial resolution) or when run for small watersheds at high spatial resolutions (~1-km2 at 3-m spatial resolution). Numerical data formats such as HDF5 can store arbitrarily large datasets. However even in HPC environments, there are practical limits on the size of single files that can be stored and reliably backed up. Even when such large datasets can be stored, querying and analyzing these data can suffer from poor performance due to memory limitations and I/O bottlenecks, for example on single workstations where memory and bandwidth are limited, or in HPC environments where data are stored separately from computational nodes. The difficulty of storing and analyzing spatial data from ecohydrology models limits our ability to harness these powerful tools. Big Data tools such as distributed databases have the potential to surmount the data storage and analysis challenges inherent to large spatial datasets. Distributed databases solve these problems by storing data close to computational nodes while enabling horizontal scalability and fault tolerance. Here we present the architecture of and preliminary results from PatchDB, a distributed datastore for managing spatial output from the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). The initial version of PatchDB uses message queueing to asynchronously write RHESSys model output to an Apache Cassandra cluster. Once stored in the cluster, these data can be efficiently queried to quickly produce both spatial visualizations for a particular variable (e.g. maps and animations), as well

  6. A comparative verification of high resolution precipitation forecasts using model output statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Plas, Emiel; Schmeits, Maurice; Hooijman, Nicolien; Kok, Kees

    2017-04-01

    Verification of localized events such as precipitation has become even more challenging with the advent of high-resolution meso-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). The realism of a forecast suggests that it should compare well against precipitation radar imagery with similar resolution, both spatially and temporally. Spatial verification methods solve some of the representativity issues that point verification gives rise to. In this study a verification strategy based on model output statistics is applied that aims to address both double penalty and resolution effects that are inherent to comparisons of NWP models with different resolutions. Using predictors based on spatial precipitation patterns around a set of stations, an extended logistic regression (ELR) equation is deduced, leading to a probability forecast distribution of precipitation for each NWP model, analysis and lead time. The ELR equations are derived for predictands based on areal calibrated radar precipitation and SYNOP observations. The aim is to extract maximum information from a series of precipitation forecasts, like a trained forecaster would. The method is applied to the non-hydrostatic model Harmonie (2.5 km resolution), Hirlam (11 km resolution) and the ECMWF model (16 km resolution), overall yielding similar Brier skill scores for the 3 post-processed models, but larger differences for individual lead times. Besides, the Fractions Skill Score is computed using the 3 deterministic forecasts, showing somewhat better skill for the Harmonie model. In other words, despite the realism of Harmonie precipitation forecasts, they only perform similarly or somewhat better than precipitation forecasts from the 2 lower resolution models, at least in the Netherlands.

  7. Output tracking and regulation of nonlinear system based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, X J; Sun, Z Q

    2000-01-01

    On the basis of the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model, this paper discusses in detail the following three problems: (1) output tracking of the nonlinear system; (2) output regulation of the nonlinear system via a state feedback; (3) output regulation of the nonlinear system via a error feedback. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate the soundness of these results and the effectiveness of the new methodology solving the output tracking and regulation problem of the nonlinear system.

  8. Wage Differentials among Workers in Input-Output Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippini, Luigi

    1981-01-01

    Using an input-output framework, the author derives hypotheses on wage differentials based on the assumption that human capital (in this case, education) will explain workers' wage differentials. The hypothetical wage differentials are tested on data from the Italian economy. (RW)

  9. Comparison of Laboratory Experimental Data to XBeach Numerical Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirci, Ebru; Baykal, Cuneyt; Guler, Isikhan; Sogut, Erdinc

    2016-04-01

    generating data sets for testing and validation of sediment transport relationships for sand transport in the presence of waves and currents. In these series, there is no structure in the basin. The second and third series of experiments were designed to generate data sets for development of tombolos in the lee of detached 4m-long rubble mound breakwater that is 4 m from the initial shoreline. The fourth series of experiments are conducted to investigate tombolo development in the lee of a 4m-long T-head groin with the head section in the same location of the second and the third tests. The fifth series of experiments are used to investigate tombolo development in the lee of a 3-m-long rubble-mound breakwater positioned 1.5 m offshore of the initial shoreline. In this study, the data collected from the above mentioned five experiments are used to compare the results of the experimental data with XBeach numerical model results, both for the "no-structure" and "with-structure" cases regarding to sediment transport relationships in the presence of only waves and currents as well as the shoreline changes together with the detached breakwater and the T-groin. The main purpose is to investigate the similarities and differences between the laboratory experimental data behavior with XBeach numerical model outputs for these five cases. References: Baykal, C., Sogut, E., Ergin, A., Guler, I., Ozyurt, G.T., Guler, G., and Dogan, G.G. (2015). Modelling Long Term Morphological Changes with XBeach: Case Study of Kızılırmak River Mouth, Turkey, European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria, 12-17 April 2015. Gravens, M.B. and Wang, P. (2007). "Data report: Laboratory testing of longshore sand transport by waves and currents; morphology change behind headland structures." Technical Report, ERDC/CHL TR-07-8, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS. Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., van Dongeren, A., van Thiel de

  10. Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

    2016-04-01

    Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

  11. An Advanced simulation Code for Modeling Inductive Output Tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuc Bui; R. Lawrence Ives

    2012-04-27

    During the Phase I program, CCR completed several major building blocks for a 3D large signal, inductive output tube (IOT) code using modern computer language and programming techniques. These included a 3D, Helmholtz, time-harmonic, field solver with a fully functional graphical user interface (GUI), automeshing and adaptivity. Other building blocks included the improved electrostatic Poisson solver with temporal boundary conditions to provide temporal fields for the time-stepping particle pusher as well as the self electric field caused by time-varying space charge. The magnetostatic field solver was also updated to solve for the self magnetic field caused by time changing current density in the output cavity gap. The goal function to optimize an IOT cavity was also formulated, and the optimization methodologies were investigated.

  12. Output feedback robust model predictive control with unmeasurable model parameters and bounded disturbance☆

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Baocang Ding; Hongguang Pan

    2016-01-01

    The output feedback model predictive control (MPC), for a linear parameter varying (LPV) process system including unmeasurable model parameters and disturbance (all lying in known polytopes), is considered. Some previously developed tools, including the norm-bounding technique for relaxing the disturbance-related constraint handling, the dynamic output feedback law, the notion of quadratic boundedness for specifying the closed-loop stability, and the el ipsoidal state estimation error bound for guaranteeing the recursive feasibility, are merged in the control design. Some previous approaches are shown to be the special cases. An example of continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

  13. State-shared model for multiple-input multiple-output systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhenhua TIAN; Karlene A. HOO

    2005-01-01

    This work proposes a method to construct a state-shared model for multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO)systems. A state-shared model is defined as a linear time invariant state-space structure that is driven by measurement signals-the plant outputs and the manipulated variables, but shared by different multiple input/output models. The genesis of the state-shared model is based on a particular reduced non-minimal realization. Any such realization necessarily fulfills the requirement that the output of the state-shared model is an asymptotically correct estimate of the output of the plant, if the process model is selected appropriately. The approach is demonstrated on a nonlinear MIMO system- a physiological model of calcium fluxes that controls muscle contraction and relaxation in human cardiac myocytes.

  14. Investigating Output Accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation Model and an Agent Based Simulation Model

    CERN Document Server

    Majid, Mazlina Abdul; Siebers, Peer-Olaf

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate output accuracy for a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model and Agent Based Simulation (ABS) model. The purpose of this investigation is to find out which of these simulation techniques is the best one for modelling human reactive behaviour in the retail sector. In order to study the output accuracy in both models, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our simulation models to the performance of a real system. Our experiment was carried out using a large UK department store as a case study. We had to determine an efficient implementation of management policy in the store's fitting room using DES and ABS. Overall, we have found that both simulation models were a good representation of the real system when modelling human reactive behaviour.

  15. Integrated spatial sampling modeling of geospatial data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Lianfa; WANG Jinfeng

    2004-01-01

    Spatial sampling is a necessary and important method for extracting geospatial data and its methodology directly affects the geo-analysis results. Counter to the deficiency of separate models of spatial sampling, this article analyzes three crucial elements of spatial sampling (frame, correlation and decision diagram) and induces its general integrated model. The program of Spatial Sampling Integration (SSI) has been developed with Component Object Model (COM) to realize the general integrated model. In two practical applications, i.e. design of the monitoring network of natural disasters and sampling survey of the areas of non-cultivated land, SSI has produced accurate results at less cost, better realizing the cost-effective goal of sampling toward the geo-objects with spatial correlation. The two cases exemplify expanded application and convenient implementation of the general integrated model with inset components in an integrated environment, which can also be extended to other modeling of spatial analysis.

  16. Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values

    KAUST Repository

    Sang, Huiyan

    2010-01-28

    We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of point-referenced extreme values. In particular, annual maxima over space and time are assumed to follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, with parameters μ, σ, and ξ specified in the latent stage to reflect underlying spatio-temporal structure. The novelty here is that we relax the conditionally independence assumption in the first stage of the hierarchial model, an assumption which has been adopted in previous work. This assumption implies that realizations of the the surface of spatial maxima will be everywhere discontinuous. For many phenomena including, e. g., temperature and precipitation, this behavior is inappropriate. Instead, we offer a spatial process model for extreme values that provides mean square continuous realizations, where the behavior of the surface is driven by the spatial dependence which is unexplained under the latent spatio-temporal specification for the GEV parameters. In this sense, the first stage smoothing is viewed as fine scale or short range smoothing while the larger scale smoothing will be captured in the second stage of the modeling. In addition, as would be desired, we are able to implement spatial interpolation for extreme values based on this model. A simulation study and a study on actual annual maximum rainfall for a region in South Africa are used to illustrate the performance of the model. © 2009 International Biometric Society.

  17. Modelling evolution in a spatial continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, N. H.; Etheridge, A. M.; Véber, A.

    2013-01-01

    We survey a class of models for spatially structured populations which we have called spatial Λ-Fleming-Viot processes. They arise from a flexible framework for modelling in which the key innovation is that random genetic drift is driven by a Poisson point process of spatial 'events'. We demonstrate how this overcomes some of the obstructions to modelling populations which evolve in two-(and higher-) dimensional spatial continua, how its predictions match phenomena observed in data and how it fits with classical models. Finally we outline some directions for future research.

  18. Local models for spatial analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Lloyd, Christopher D

    2010-01-01

    Focusing on solutions, this second edition provides guidance to a wide variety of real-world problems. The text presents a complete introduction to key concepts and a clear mapping of the methods discussed. It also explores connections between methods. New chapters address spatial patterning in single variables and spatial relations. In addition, every chapter now includes links to key related studies. The author clearly distinguishes between local and global methods and provides more detailed coverage of geographical weighting, image texture measures, local spatial autocorrelation, and multic

  19. Comparing physically-based and statistical landslide susceptibility model outputs - a case study from Lower Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canli, Ekrem; Thiebes, Benni; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    By now there is a broad consensus that due to human-induced global change the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation events is expected to increase in certain parts of the world. Given the fact, that rainfall serves as the most common triggering agent for landslide initiation, also an increased landside activity can be expected there. Landslide occurrence is a globally spread phenomenon that clearly needs to be handled. The present and well known problems in modelling landslide susceptibility and hazard give uncertain results in the prediction. This includes the lack of a universal applicable modelling solution for adequately assessing landslide susceptibility (which can be seen as the relative indication of the spatial probability of landslide initiation). Generally speaking, there are three major approaches for performing landslide susceptibility analysis: heuristic, statistical and deterministic models, all with different assumptions, its distinctive data requirements and differently interpretable outcomes. Still, detailed comparison of resulting landslide susceptibility maps are rare. In this presentation, the susceptibility modelling outputs of a deterministic model (Stability INdex MAPping - SINMAP) and a statistical modelling approach (generalized additive model - GAM) are compared. SINMAP is an infinite slope stability model which requires parameterization of soil mechanical parameters. Modelling with the generalized additive model, which represents a non-linear extension of a generalized linear model, requires a high quality landslide inventory that serves as the dependent variable in the statistical approach. Both methods rely on topographical data derived from the DTM. The comparison has been carried out in a study area located in the district of Waidhofen/Ybbs in Lower Austria. For the whole district (ca. 132 km²), 1063 landslides have been mapped and partially used within the analysis and the validation of the model outputs. The respective

  20. Model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  1. Atlantis model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  2. KING GEORGE ISLAND SPATIAL DATA MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Distribution,interoperability,interactivity,component are four main features of distributed GIS.Based on the principle of hypermap,hypermedia and distributed database,the paper comes up with a kind of distributed spatial data model which is in accordance with those features of distributed GIS.The model takes catalog service as the outline of spatial information globalization,and defines data structure of hypermap node in different level.Based on the model,it is feasible to manage and process distributed spatial information,and integrate multi_source,heterogeneous spatial data into a framework.Traditionally,to retrieve and access spatial data via Internet is only by theme or map name.With the concept of the model,it is possible to retrieve,load,and link spatial data by vector_based graphics on the Internet.

  3. A multiple-input-multiple-output visible light communication system based on VCSELs and spatial light modulators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hai-Han; Lin, Ying-Pyng; Wu, Po-Yi; Chen, Chia-Yi; Chen, Min-Chou; Jhang, Tai-Wei

    2014-02-10

    A multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) visible light communication (VLC) system employing vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL) and spatial light modulators (SLMs) with 16-quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM)-orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) modulating signal is proposed and experimentally demonstrated. The transmission capacity of system is significantly increased by space-division demultiplexing scheme. With the assistance of low noise amplifier (LNA) and data comparator, good bit error rate (BER) performance, clear constellation map, and clear eye diagram are achieved for each optical channel. Such a MIMO VLC system would be attractive for providing services including data and telecommunication services. Our proposed system is suitably applicable to the lightwave communication system in wireless transmission.

  4. Bayesian Spatial Modelling with R-INLA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Finn Lindgren

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The principles behind the interface to continuous domain spatial models in the R- INLA software package for R are described. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA approach proposed by Rue, Martino, and Chopin (2009 is a computationally effective alternative to MCMC for Bayesian inference. INLA is designed for latent Gaussian models, a very wide and flexible class of models ranging from (generalized linear mixed to spatial and spatio-temporal models. Combined with the stochastic partial differential equation approach (SPDE, Lindgren, Rue, and Lindstrm 2011, one can accommodate all kinds of geographically referenced data, including areal and geostatistical ones, as well as spatial point process data. The implementation interface covers stationary spatial mod- els, non-stationary spatial models, and also spatio-temporal models, and is applicable in epidemiology, ecology, environmental risk assessment, as well as general geostatistics.

  5. Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent

  6. Continuous-Time Modeling with Spatial Dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oud, J.H.L.; Folmer, H.; Patuelli, R.; Nijkamp, P.

    2012-01-01

    (Spatial) panel data are routinely modeled in discrete time (DT). However, compelling arguments exist for continuous-time (CT) modeling of (spatial) panel data. Particularly, most social processes evolve in CT, so that statistical analysis in DT is an oversimplification, gives an incomplete

  7. Continuous-Time Modeling with Spatial Dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oud, J.; Folmer, H.; Patuelli, R.; Nijkamp, P.

    (Spatial) panel data are routinely modeled in discrete time (DT). However, compelling arguments exist for continuous-time (CT) modeling of (spatial) panel data. Particularly, most social processes evolve in CT, so that statistical analysis in DT is an oversimplification, gives an incomplete

  8. Ergodic channel capacity of spatial correlated multiple-input multiple-output free space optical links using multipulse pulse-position modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huiqin; Wang, Xue; Cao, Minghua

    2017-02-01

    The spatial correlation extensively exists in the multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) free space optical (FSO) communication systems due to the channel fading and the antenna space limitation. Wilkinson's method was utilized to investigate the impact of spatial correlation on the MIMO FSO communication system employing multipulse pulse-position modulation. Simulation results show that the existence of spatial correlation reduces the ergodic channel capacity, and the reception diversity is more competent to resist this kind of performance degradation.

  9. Developing Snow Model Forcing Data From WRF Model Output to Aid in Water Resource Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havens, S.; Marks, D. G.; Watson, K. A.; Masarik, M.; Flores, A. N.; Kormos, P.; Hedrick, A. R.

    2015-12-01

    Traditional operational modeling tools used by water managers in the west are challenged by more frequently occurring uncharacteristic stream flow patterns caused by climate change. Water managers are now turning to new models based on the physical processes within a watershed to combat the increasing number of events that do not follow the historical patterns. The USDA-ARS has provided near real time snow water equivalent (SWE) maps using iSnobal since WY2012 for the Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho and since WY2013 for the Tuolumne Basin in California that feeds the Hetch Hetchy reservoir. The goal of these projects is to not only provide current snowpack estimates but to use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to drive iSnobal in order to produce a forecasted stream flow when coupled to a hydrology model. The first step is to develop methods on how to create snow model forcing data from WRF outputs. Using a reanalysis 1km WRF dataset from WY2009 over the Boise River Basin, WRF model results like surface air temperature, relative humidity, wind, precipitation, cloud cover, and incoming long wave radiation must be downscaled for use in iSnobal. iSnobal results forced with WRF output are validated at point locations throughout the basin, as well as compared with iSnobal results forced with traditional weather station data. The presentation will explore the differences in forcing data derived from WRF outputs and weather stations and how this affects the snowpack distribution.

  10. Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

    2012-12-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

  11. An artificial neural network technique for downscaling GCM outputs to RCM spatial scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Chadwick

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available An Artificial Neural Network (ANN approach is used to downscale ECHAM5 GCM temperature (T and rainfall (R fields to RegCM3 regional model scale over Europe. The main inputs to the neural network were the ECHAM5 fields and topography, and RegCM3 topography. An ANN trained for the period 1960–1980 was able to recreate the RegCM3 1981–2000 mean T and R fields with reasonable accuracy. The ANN showed an improvement over a simple lapse-rate correction method for T, although the ANN R field did not capture all the fine-scale detail of the RCM field. An ANN trained over a smaller area of Southern Europe was able to capture this detail with more precision. The ANN was unable to accurately recreate the RCM climate change (CC signal between 1981–2000 and 2081–2100, and it is suggested that this is because the relationship between the GCM fields, RCM fields and topography is not constant with time and changing climate. An ANN trained with three ten-year "time-slices" was able to better reproduce the RCM CC signal, particularly for the full European domain. This approach shows encouraging results but will need further refinement before becoming a viable supplement to dynamical regional climate modelling of temperature and rainfall.

  12. Bayesian Spatial Modelling with R-INLA

    OpenAIRE

    Finn Lindgren; Håvard Rue

    2015-01-01

    The principles behind the interface to continuous domain spatial models in the R- INLA software package for R are described. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) approach proposed by Rue, Martino, and Chopin (2009) is a computationally effective alternative to MCMC for Bayesian inference. INLA is designed for latent Gaussian models, a very wide and flexible class of models ranging from (generalized) linear mixed to spatial and spatio-temporal models. Combined with the stochastic...

  13. H(infinity) output tracking control for nonlinear systems via T-S fuzzy model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chong; Wang, Qing-Guo; Lee, Tong Heng

    2006-04-01

    This paper studies the problem of H(infinity) output tracking control for nonlinear time-delay systems using Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model approach. An LMI-based design method is proposed for achieving the output tracking purpose. Illustrative examples are given to show the effectiveness of the present results.

  14. Light output measurements and computational models of microcolumnar CsI scintillators for x-ray imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nillius, Peter; Klamra, Wlodek; Sibczynski, Pawel; Sharma, Diksha; Danielsson, Mats; Badano, Aldo

    2015-02-01

    The authors report on measurements of light output and spatial resolution of microcolumnar CsI:Tl scintillator detectors for x-ray imaging. In addition, the authors discuss the results of simulations aimed at analyzing the results of synchrotron and sealed-source exposures with respect to the contributions of light transport to the total light output. The authors measured light output from a 490-μm CsI:Tl scintillator screen using two setups. First, the authors used a photomultiplier tube (PMT) to measure the response of the scintillator to sealed-source exposures. Second, the authors performed imaging experiments with a 27-keV monoenergetic synchrotron beam and a slit to calculate the total signal generated in terms of optical photons per keV. The results of both methods are compared to simulations obtained with hybridmantis, a coupled x-ray, electron, and optical photon Monte Carlo transport package. The authors report line response (LR) and light output for a range of linear absorption coefficients and describe a model that fits at the same time the light output and the blur measurements. Comparing the experimental results with the simulations, the authors obtained an estimate of the absorption coefficient for the model that provides good agreement with the experimentally measured LR. Finally, the authors report light output simulation results and their dependence on scintillator thickness and reflectivity of the backing surface. The slit images from the synchrotron were analyzed to obtain a total light output of 48 keV(-1) while measurements using the fast PMT instrument setup and sealed-sources reported a light output of 28 keV(-1) . The authors attribute the difference in light output estimates between the two methods to the difference in time constants between the camera and PMT measurements. Simulation structures were designed to match the light output measured with the camera while providing good agreement with the measured LR resulting in a bulk

  15. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    of spatial information in a holistic assessment. Opposed, statistical measures typically only address a limited amount of spatial information. A web-based survey and a citizen science project are employed to quantify the collective perceptive skills of humans aiming at benchmarking spatial metrics...... of environmental science, such as meteorology, geostatistics or geography. In total, seven metrics are evaluated with respect to their capability to quantitatively compare spatial patterns. The human visual perception is often considered superior to computer based measures, because it integrates various dimensions...... with respect to their capability to mimic human evaluations. This PhD thesis aims at expanding the standard toolbox of spatial model evaluation with innovative metrics that adequately compare spatial patterns. Driven by the rise of more complex model structures and the increase of suitable remote sensing...

  16. Spatial Data Web Services Pricing Model Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozmus, L.; Erkek, B.; Colak, S.; Cankurt, I.; Bakıcı, S.

    2013-08-01

    most important law with related NSDI is the establishment of General Directorate of Geographic Information System under the Ministry of Environment and Urbanism. due to; to do or to have do works and activities with related to the establishment of National Geographic Information Systems (NGIS), usage of NGIS and improvements of NGIS. Outputs of these projects are served to not only public administration but also to Turkish society. Today for example, TAKBIS data (cadastre services) are shared more than 50 institutions by Web services, Tusaga-Aktif system has more than 3800 users who are having real-time GPS data correction, Orthophoto WMS services has been started for two years as a charge of free. Today there is great discussion about data pricing among the institutions. Some of them think that the pricing is storage of the data. Some of them think that the pricing is value of data itself. There is no certain rule about pricing. On this paper firstly, pricing of data storage and later on spatial data pricing models in different countries are investigated to improve institutional understanding in Turkey.

  17. Quantifying Uncertainty of Pedotransfer Functions on Soil Water Retention and Hydrologic Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göhler, Maren; Mai, Juliane; Zacharias, Steffen; Cuntz, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Pedotransfer Functions are often used to estimate soil water retention which is an important physical property of soils and hence quantifying their uncertainty is of high interest. Three independent uncertainties with regard to uncertainty in Pedotransfer Functions are analysed using a probabilistic approach: (1) uncertainty resulting through a limited data base for Pedotransfer Function calibration, (2) uncertainty arising through unknown errors in the measurements which are used for developing the Pedotransfer Functions, and (3) uncertainty arising through the application of the Pedotransfer Functions in a modeling procedure using soil maps with textural classifications. The third uncertainty, arising through the application of the functions to random textural compositions, appears to be the most influential uncertainty in water retention estimates especially for soil classes where sparse data was available for calibration. Furthermore, the bulk density is strongly influencing the variability in the saturated water content and spatial variations in soil moisture. Furthermore, the propagation of the uncertainty arising from random sampling of the calibration data set has a large effect on soil moisture computed with a mesoscale hydrologic model. The evapotranspiration is the most affected hydrologic model output, whereas the discharge shows only minor variation. The analysis of the measurement error remains difficult due to high correlation between the Pedotransfer function coefficients.

  18. A neuromorphic model of spatial lookahead planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivey, Richard; Bullock, Daniel; Grossberg, Stephen

    2011-04-01

    In order to create spatial plans in a complex and changing world, organisms need to rapidly adapt to novel configurations of obstacles that impede simple routes to goal acquisition. Some animals can mentally create successful multistep spatial plans in new visuo-spatial layouts that preclude direct, one-segment routes to goal acquisition. Lookahead multistep plans can, moreover, be fully developed before an animal executes any step in the plan. What neural computations suffice to yield preparatory multistep lookahead plans during spatial cognition of an obstructed two-dimensional scene? To address this question, we introduce a novel neuromorphic system for spatial lookahead planning in which a feasible sequence of actions is prepared before movement begins. The proposed system combines neurobiologically plausible mechanisms of recurrent shunting competitive networks, visuo-spatial diffusion, and inhibition-of-return. These processes iteratively prepare a multistep trajectory to the desired goal state in the presence of obstacles. The planned trajectory can be stored using a primacy gradient in a sequential working memory and enacted by a competitive queuing process. The proposed planning system is compared with prior planning models. Simulation results demonstrate system robustness to environmental variations. Notably, the model copes with many configurations of obstacles that lead other visuo-spatial planning models into selecting undesirable or infeasible routes. Our proposal is inspired by mechanisms of spatial attention and planning in primates. Accordingly, our simulation results are compared with neurophysiological and behavioral findings from relevant studies of spatial lookahead behavior.

  19. Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data

    CERN Document Server

    Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E

    2003-01-01

    Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat

  20. Application of Gray Metabolic Model in the Prediction of the Cotton Output in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    In order to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, Gray Metabolic Forecast Model is established based on both the Gray Forecast Model and the Metabolic Theory. According to the actual situation, forecast results of conventional GM (1, 1) Model and Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model are analyzed, showing that Metabolic Forecast Model has higher precision than the conventional forecast model. Therefore, Metabolism GM (1, 1) Model is used to forecast the cotton output of China in the year 2011, which is 614 968.3 thousand tons.

  1. Investigation on the integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BAO Nengsheng; MA Xiuqian; NI Weidou

    2007-01-01

    The integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm is needed when estimating the wind farm's output over a period of time in the future.The actual wind speed power model and calculation method of a wind farm made up of many wind turbine units are discussed.After analyzing the incoming wind flow characteristics and their energy distributions,and after considering the multi-effects among the wind turbine units and certain assumptions,the incoming wind flow model of multi-units is built.The calculation algorithms and steps of the integral output power model of a large-scale wind farm are provided.Finally,an actual power output of the wind farm is calculated and analyzed by using the practical measurement wind speed data.The characteristics of a large-scale wind farm are also discussed.

  2. H∞ output tracking control of discrete-time nonlinear systems via standard neural network models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meiqin; Zhang, Senlin; Chen, Haiyang; Sheng, Weihua

    2014-10-01

    This brief proposes an output tracking control for a class of discrete-time nonlinear systems with disturbances. A standard neural network model is used to represent discrete-time nonlinear systems whose nonlinearity satisfies the sector conditions. H∞ control performance for the closed-loop system including the standard neural network model, the reference model, and state feedback controller is analyzed using Lyapunov-Krasovskii stability theorem and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. The H∞ controller, of which the parameters are obtained by solving LMIs, guarantees that the output of the closed-loop system closely tracks the output of a given reference model well, and reduces the influence of disturbances on the tracking error. Three numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed H∞ output tracking design approach.

  3. Average and Small Signal Modeling of Negative-Output KY Boost Converter in CCM Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faqiang Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Negative-output KY Boost converter, which can obtain the negative output voltage and could be driven easily, is a good topology to overcome traditional Boost and Buck-Boost converters and it is believed that this converter will be widely used in engineering applications in the future. In this study, by using the averaging method and geometrical technique, the average and small signal model of the negative-output KY Boost converter are established. The DC equilibrium point and transfer functions of the system are derived and analyzed. Finally, the effectiveness of the established model and the correctness of the theoretical analysis are confirmed by the circuit experiment.

  4. Evaluation of bias correction methods for wave modeling output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, K.; Hill, D. F.

    2017-02-01

    Models that seek to predict environmental variables invariably demonstrate bias when compared to observations. Bias correction (BC) techniques are common in the climate and hydrological modeling communities, but have seen fewer applications to the field of wave modeling. In particular there has been no investigation as to which BC methodology performs best for wave modeling. This paper introduces and compares a subset of BC methods with the goal of clarifying a "best practice" methodology for application of BC in studies of wave-related processes. Specific focus is paid to comparing parametric vs. empirical methods as well as univariate vs. bivariate methods. The techniques are tested on global WAVEWATCH III historic and future period datasets with comparison to buoy observations at multiple locations. Both wave height and period are considered in order to investigate BC effects on inter-variable correlation. Results show that all methods perform uniformly in terms of correcting statistical moments for individual variables with the exception of a copula based method underperforming for wave period. When comparing parametric and empirical methods, no difference is found. Between bivariate and univariate methods, results show that bivariate methods greatly improve inter-variable correlations. Of the bivariate methods tested the copula based method is found to be not as effective at correcting correlation while a "shuffling" method is unable to handle changes in correlation from historic to future periods. In summary, this study demonstrates that BC methods are effective when applied to wave model data and that it is essential to employ methods that consider dependence between variables.

  5. Models of asthma: density-equalizing mapping and output benchmarking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fischer Tanja C

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Despite the large amount of experimental studies already conducted on bronchial asthma, further insights into the molecular basics of the disease are required to establish new therapeutic approaches. As a basis for this research different animal models of asthma have been developed in the past years. However, precise bibliometric data on the use of different models do not exist so far. Therefore the present study was conducted to establish a data base of the existing experimental approaches. Density-equalizing algorithms were used and data was retrieved from a Thomson Institute for Scientific Information database. During the period from 1900 to 2006 a number of 3489 filed items were connected to animal models of asthma, the first being published in the year 1968. The studies were published by 52 countries with the US, Japan and the UK being the most productive suppliers, participating in 55.8% of all published items. Analyzing the average citation per item as an indicator for research quality Switzerland ranked first (30.54/item and New Zealand ranked second for countries with more than 10 published studies. The 10 most productive journals included 4 with a main focus allergy and immunology and 4 with a main focus on the respiratory system. Two journals focussed on pharmacology or pharmacy. In all assigned subject categories examined for a relation to animal models of asthma, immunology ranked first. Assessing numbers of published items in relation to animal species it was found that mice were the preferred species followed by guinea pigs. In summary it can be concluded from density-equalizing calculations that the use of animal models of asthma is restricted to a relatively small number of countries. There are also differences in the use of species. These differences are based on variations in the research focus as assessed by subject category analysis.

  6. A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acosta, L.; Klein, R.J.T.; Reidsma, P.; Metzger, M.J.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Leemans, R.

    2013-01-01

    Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit scenario-driv

  7. Estimation of sectoral prices in the BNL energy input--output model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tessmer, R.G. Jr.; Groncki, P.; Boyce, G.W. Jr.

    1977-12-01

    Value-added coefficients have been incorporated into Brookhaven's Energy Input-Output Model so that one can calculate the implicit price at which each sector sells its output to interindustry and final-demand purchasers. Certain adjustments to historical 1967 data are required because of the unique structure of the model. Procedures are also described for projecting energy-sector coefficients in future years that are consistent with exogenously specified energy prices.

  8. Optimal cycling time trial position models: aerodynamics versus power output and metabolic energy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fintelman, D M; Sterling, M; Hemida, H; Li, F-X

    2014-06-03

    The aerodynamic drag of a cyclist in time trial (TT) position is strongly influenced by the torso angle. While decreasing the torso angle reduces the drag, it limits the physiological functioning of the cyclist. Therefore the aims of this study were to predict the optimal TT cycling position as function of the cycling speed and to determine at which speed the aerodynamic power losses start to dominate. Two models were developed to determine the optimal torso angle: a 'Metabolic Energy Model' and a 'Power Output Model'. The Metabolic Energy Model minimised the required cycling energy expenditure, while the Power Output Model maximised the cyclists׳ power output. The input parameters were experimentally collected from 19 TT cyclists at different torso angle positions (0-24°). The results showed that for both models, the optimal torso angle depends strongly on the cycling speed, with decreasing torso angles at increasing speeds. The aerodynamic losses outweigh the power losses at cycling speeds above 46km/h. However, a fully horizontal torso is not optimal. For speeds below 30km/h, it is beneficial to ride in a more upright TT position. The two model outputs were not completely similar, due to the different model approaches. The Metabolic Energy Model could be applied for endurance events, while the Power Output Model is more suitable in sprinting or in variable conditions (wind, undulating course, etc.). It is suggested that despite some limitations, the models give valuable information about improving the cycling performance by optimising the TT cycling position.

  9. Global robust output regulation control for cascaded nonlinear systems using the internal model principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jiang-Bo; Zhao, Yan; Wu, Yu-Qiang

    2014-04-01

    This article considers the global robust output regulation problem via output feedback for a class of cascaded nonlinear systems with input-to-state stable inverse dynamics. The system uncertainties depend not only on the measured output but also all the unmeasurable states. By introducing an internal model, the output regulation problem is converted into a stabilisation problem for an appropriately augmented system. The designed dynamic controller could achieve the global asymptotic tracking control for a class of time-varying reference signals for the system output while keeping all other closed-loop signals bounded. It is of interest to note that the developed control approach can be applied to the speed tracking control of the fan speed control system. The simulation results demonstrate its effectiveness.

  10. On spatially explicit models of cholera epidemics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bertuzzo, E; Casagrandi, R; Gatto, M; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I; Rinaldo, A

    2010-01-01

    We generalize a recently proposed model for cholera epidemics that accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having...

  11. SIMULATION MODELING SLOW SPATIALLY HETER- OGENEOUS COAGULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Zdorovtsev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A new model of spatially inhomogeneous coagulation, i.e. formation of larger clusters by joint interaction of smaller ones, is under study. The results of simulation are compared with known analytical and numerical solutions.

  12. Spatial averaging infiltration model for layered soil

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU HePing; YANG ZhiYong; TIAN FuQiang

    2009-01-01

    To quantify the influences of soil heterogeneity on infiltration, a spatial averaging infiltration model for layered soil (SAI model) is developed by coupling the spatial averaging approach proposed by Chen et al. and the Generalized Green-Ampt model proposed by Jia et al. In the SAI model, the spatial heterogeneity along the horizontal direction is described by a probability distribution function, while that along the vertical direction is represented by the layered soils. The SAI model is tested on a typical soil using Monte Carlo simulations as the base model. The results show that the SAI model can directly incorporate the influence of spatial heterogeneity on infiltration on the macro scale. It is also found that the homogeneous assumption of soil hydraulic conductivity along the horizontal direction will overestimate the infiltration rate, while that along the vertical direction will underestimate the infiltration rate significantly during rainstorm periods. The SAI model is adopted in the spatial averaging hydrological model developed by the authors, and the results prove that it can be applied in the macro-scale hydrological and land surface process modeling in a promising way.

  13. Spatial averaging infiltration model for layered soil

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    To quantify the influences of soil heterogeneity on infiltration, a spatial averaging infiltration model for layered soil (SAI model) is developed by coupling the spatial averaging approach proposed by Chen et al. and the Generalized Green-Ampt model proposed by Jia et al. In the SAI model, the spatial hetero- geneity along the horizontal direction is described by a probability distribution function, while that along the vertical direction is represented by the layered soils. The SAI model is tested on a typical soil using Monte Carlo simulations as the base model. The results show that the SAI model can directly incorporate the influence of spatial heterogeneity on infiltration on the macro scale. It is also found that the homogeneous assumption of soil hydraulic conductivity along the horizontal direction will overes- timate the infiltration rate, while that along the vertical direction will underestimate the infiltration rate significantly during rainstorm periods. The SAI model is adopted in the spatial averaging hydrological model developed by the authors, and the results prove that it can be applied in the macro-scale hy- drological and land surface process modeling in a promising way.

  14. Spatial occupancy models for large data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Devin S.; Conn, Paul B.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Ray, Justina C.; Pond, Bruce A.

    2013-01-01

    Since its development, occupancy modeling has become a popular and useful tool for ecologists wishing to learn about the dynamics of species occurrence over time and space. Such models require presence–absence data to be collected at spatially indexed survey units. However, only recently have researchers recognized the need to correct for spatially induced overdisperison by explicitly accounting for spatial autocorrelation in occupancy probability. Previous efforts to incorporate such autocorrelation have largely focused on logit-normal formulations for occupancy, with spatial autocorrelation induced by a random effect within a hierarchical modeling framework. Although useful, computational time generally limits such an approach to relatively small data sets, and there are often problems with algorithm instability, yielding unsatisfactory results. Further, recent research has revealed a hidden form of multicollinearity in such applications, which may lead to parameter bias if not explicitly addressed. Combining several techniques, we present a unifying hierarchical spatial occupancy model specification that is particularly effective over large spatial extents. This approach employs a probit mixture framework for occupancy and can easily accommodate a reduced-dimensional spatial process to resolve issues with multicollinearity and spatial confounding while improving algorithm convergence. Using open-source software, we demonstrate this new model specification using a case study involving occupancy of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) over a set of 1080 survey units spanning a large contiguous region (108 000 km2) in northern Ontario, Canada. Overall, the combination of a more efficient specification and open-source software allows for a facile and stable implementation of spatial occupancy models for large data sets.

  15. Spatial uncertainty assessment in modelling reference evapotranspiration at regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Buttafuoco

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration is one of the major components of the water balance and has been identified as a key factor in hydrological modelling. For this reason, several methods have been developed to calculate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0. In modelling reference evapotranspiration it is inevitable that both model and data input will present some uncertainty. Whatever model is used, the errors in the input will propagate to the output of the calculated ET0. Neglecting information about estimation uncertainty, however, may lead to improper decision-making and water resources management. One geostatistical approach to spatial analysis is stochastic simulation, which draws alternative and equally probable, realizations of a regionalized variable. Differences between the realizations provide a measure of spatial uncertainty and allow to carry out an error propagation analysis. Among the evapotranspiration models, the Hargreaves-Samani model was used.

    The aim of this paper was to assess spatial uncertainty of a monthly reference evapotranspiration model resulting from the uncertainties in the input attributes (mainly temperature at regional scale. A case study was presented for Calabria region (southern Italy. Temperature data were jointly simulated by conditional turning bands simulation with elevation as external drift and 500 realizations were generated.

    The ET0 was then estimated for each set of the 500 realizations of the input variables, and the ensemble of the model outputs was used to infer the reference evapotranspiration probability distribution function. This approach allowed to delineate the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, to improve supplementary sampling strategies and ET0 value predictions.

  16. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...... the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...

  17. Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Robertson

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1 when the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to antecedent rainfall, (2 when the catchment is drying and the dominant source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and base flow, and (3 when the initial catchment condition is near saturation intermittently throughout the historical record.

  18. Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, D. E.; Pokhrel, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2013-02-01

    Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1) when the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to antecedent rainfall, (2) when the catchment is drying and the dominant source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and base flow, and (3) when the initial catchment condition is near saturation intermittently throughout the historical record.

  19. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  20. Regional input-output models and the treatment of imports in the European System of Accounts

    OpenAIRE

    Kronenberg, Tobias

    2011-01-01

    Input-output models are often used in regional science due to their versatility and their ability to capture many of the distinguishing features of a regional economy. Input-output tables are available for all EU member countries, but they are hard to find at the regional level, since many regional governments lack the resources or the will to produce reliable, survey-based regional input-output tables. Therefore, in many cases researchers adopt nonsurvey techniques to derive regional input-o...

  1. Assessing the use of subgrid land model output to study impacts of land cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Natalie M.; Lee, Xuhui; Lawrence, Peter J.; Lawrence, David M.; Zhao, Lei

    2016-06-01

    Subgrid information from land models has the potential to be a powerful tool for investigating land-atmosphere interactions, but relatively few studies have attempted to exploit subgrid output. In this study, we modify the configuration of the Community Land Model version CLM4.5 so that each plant functional type (PFT) is assigned its own soil column. We compare subgrid and grid cell-averaged air temperature and surface energy fluxes from this modified case (PFTCOL) to a case with the default configuration—a shared soil column for all PFTs (CTRL)—and examine the difference in simulated surface air temperature between grass and tree PFTs within the same grid cells (ΔTGT). The magnitude and spatial patterns of ΔTGT from PFTCOL agree more closely with observations, ranging from -1.5 K in boreal regions to +0.6 K in the tropics. We find that the column configuration has a large effect on PFT-level energy fluxes. In the CTRL configuration, the PFT-level annual mean ground heat flux (G) differs substantially from zero. For example, at a typical tropical grid cell, the annual G is 31.8 W m-2 for the tree PFTs and -14.7 W m-2 for grass PFTs. In PFTCOL, G is always close to zero. These results suggest that care must be taken when assessing local land cover change impacts with subgrid information. For models with PFTs on separate columns, it may be possible to isolate the differences in land surface fluxes between vegetation types that would be associated with land cover change from other climate forcings and feedbacks in climate model simulations.

  2. Performance of Information Criteria for Spatial Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyeyoung; Ghosh, Sujit K

    2009-01-01

    Model choice is one of the most crucial aspect in any statistical data analysis. It is well known that most models are just an approximation to the true data generating process but among such model approximations it is our goal to select the "best" one. Researchers typically consider a finite number of plausible models in statistical applications and the related statistical inference depends on the chosen model. Hence model comparison is required to identify the "best" model among several such candidate models. This article considers the problem of model selection for spatial data. The issue of model selection for spatial models has been addressed in the literature by the use of traditional information criteria based methods, even though such criteria have been developed based on the assumption of independent observations. We evaluate the performance of some of the popular model selection critera via Monte Carlo simulation experiments using small to moderate samples. In particular, we compare the performance of some of the most popular information criteria such as Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and Corrected AIC (AICc) in selecting the true model. The ability of these criteria to select the correct model is evaluated under several scenarios. This comparison is made using various spatial covariance models ranging from stationary isotropic to nonstationary models.

  3. Modeling and control of the output current of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Pasupathi, Sivakumar

    2015-01-01

    In this work, a dynamic Matlab SIMULINK model of the relationship between the fuel cell current set point of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system and the output current of the system is developed. The model contains an estimated fuel cell model, based on a polarization curve and assumed first order...

  4. Regional Input Output Models and the FLQ Formula: A Case Study of Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Tony Flegg; Paul White

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the use of location quotients (LQs) in constructing regional input-output models. Its focus is on the augmented FLQ formula (AFLQ) proposed by Flegg and Webber, 2000, which takes regional specialization explicitly into account. In our case study, we examine data for 20 Finnish regions, ranging in size from very small to very large, in order to assess the relative performance of the AFLQ formula in estimating regional imports, total intermediate inputs and output multiplier...

  5. Interregional spillovers in Spain: an estimation using an interregional input-output model

    OpenAIRE

    Llano, Carlos

    2009-01-01

    In this note we introduce the 1995 Spanish Interregional Input-Output Model, which was estimated using a wide set of One-region input-output tables and interregional trade matrices, estimated for each sector using interregional transport flows. Based on this framework, and by means of the Hypothetical Regional Extraction Method, the interregional backward and feedback effects are computed, capturing the pull effect of every region over the rest of Spain, through their sectoral relations withi...

  6. Modelling and study on the output flow characteristics of expansion energy used hydropneumatic transformer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Yan; Wu, Tiecheng; Cai, Maolin; Liu, Chong [Beihang University, Beijing (China)

    2016-03-15

    Hydropneumatic transformer (short for HP transformer) is used to pump pressurized hydraulic oil. Whereas, due to its insufficient usage of energy and low efficiency, a new kind of HP transformer: EEUHP transformer (Expansion energy used hydropneumatic transformer) was proposed. To illustrate the characteristics of the EEUHP transformer, a mathematical model was built. To verify the mathematical model, an experimental prototype was setup and studied. Through simulation and experimental study on the EEUHP transformer, the influence of five key parameters on the output flow of the EEUHP transformer were obtained, and some conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, the mathematical model was proved to be valid. Furthermore, the EEUHP transformer costs fewer of compressed air than the normal HP transformer when the output flow of the two kinds of transformers are almost same. Moreover, with an increase in the output pressure, the output flow decreases sharply. Finally, with an increase in the effective area of hydraulic output port, the output flow increases distinctly. This research can be referred to in the performance and design optimization of the EEUHP transformers.

  7. Uncertainty in spatially explicit animal dispersal models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooij, Wolf M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2003-01-01

    Uncertainty in estimates of survival of dispersing animals is a vexing difficulty in conservation biology. The current notion is that this uncertainty decreases the usefulness of spatially explicit population models in particular. We examined this problem by comparing dispersal models of three levels of complexity: (1) an event-based binomial model that considers only the occurrence of mortality or arrival, (2) a temporally explicit exponential model that employs mortality and arrival rates, and (3) a spatially explicit grid-walk model that simulates the movement of animals through an artificial landscape. Each model was fitted to the same set of field data. A first objective of the paper is to illustrate how the maximum-likelihood method can be used in all three cases to estimate the means and confidence limits for the relevant model parameters, given a particular set of data on dispersal survival. Using this framework we show that the structure of the uncertainty for all three models is strikingly similar. In fact, the results of our unified approach imply that spatially explicit dispersal models, which take advantage of information on landscape details, suffer less from uncertainly than do simpler models. Moreover, we show that the proposed strategy of model development safeguards one from error propagation in these more complex models. Finally, our approach shows that all models related to animal dispersal, ranging from simple to complex, can be related in a hierarchical fashion, so that the various approaches to modeling such dispersal can be viewed from a unified perspective.

  8. Spatial interactions in agent-based modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Ausloos, Marcel; Merlone, Ugo

    2014-01-01

    Agent Based Modeling (ABM) has become a widespread approach to model complex interactions. In this chapter after briefly summarizing some features of ABM the different approaches in modeling spatial interactions are discussed. It is stressed that agents can interact either indirectly through a shared environment and/or directly with each other. In such an approach, higher-order variables such as commodity prices, population dynamics or even institutions, are not exogenously specified but instead are seen as the results of interactions. It is highlighted in the chapter that the understanding of patterns emerging from such spatial interaction between agents is a key problem as much as their description through analytical or simulation means. The chapter reviews different approaches for modeling agents' behavior, taking into account either explicit spatial (lattice based) structures or networks. Some emphasis is placed on recent ABM as applied to the description of the dynamics of the geographical distribution o...

  9. Impact of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall inputs on urban hydrodynamic outputs: A multi-catchment investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ochoa-Rodriguez, Susana; Wang, Lipen; Gires, Auguste

    2015-01-01

    -polarimetric X-band weather radar, located in the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research (CESAR) of the Netherlands, were selected for analysis. Based on the original radar estimates, at 100 m and 1 min resolutions, 15 different combinations of coarser spatial and temporal resolutions, up to 3000 m...... and 10 min, were generated. These estimates were then applied to the operational semi-distributed hydrodynamic models of the urban catchments, all of which have similar size (between 3 and 8 km2), but different morphological, hydrological and hydraulic characteristics. When doing so, methodologies...

  10. Regulation mechanisms in spatial stochastic development models

    CERN Document Server

    Finkelshtein, Dmitri

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyze different regulation mechanisms in spatial continuous stochastic development models. We describe the density behavior for models with global mortality and local establishment rates. We prove that the local self-regulation via a competition mechanism (density dependent mortality) may suppress a unbounded growth of the averaged density if the competition kernel is superstable.

  11. Uncertainty in spatially explicit animal dispersal models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooij, W.M.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    2003-01-01

    Uncertainty in estimates of survival of dispersing animals is a vexing difficulty in conservation biology. The current notion is that this uncertainty decreases the usefulness of spatially explicit population models in particular. We examined this problem by comparing dispersal models of three level

  12. Laguerre-Volterra model and architecture for MIMO system identification and output prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Will X Y; Xin, Yao; Chan, Rosa H M; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W; Cheung, Ray C C

    2014-01-01

    A generalized mathematical model is proposed for behaviors prediction of biological causal systems with multiple inputs and multiple outputs (MIMO). The system properties are represented by a set of model parameters, which can be derived with random input stimuli probing it. The system calculates predicted outputs based on the estimated parameters and its novel inputs. An efficient hardware architecture is established for this mathematical model and its circuitry has been implemented using the field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). This architecture is scalable and its functionality has been validated by using experimental data gathered from real-world measurement.

  13. Integrated statistical modelling of spatial landslide probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mergili, M.; Chu, H.-J.

    2015-09-01

    Statistical methods are commonly employed to estimate spatial probabilities of landslide release at the catchment or regional scale. Travel distances and impact areas are often computed by means of conceptual mass point models. The present work introduces a fully automated procedure extending and combining both concepts to compute an integrated spatial landslide probability: (i) the landslide inventory is subset into release and deposition zones. (ii) We employ a simple statistical approach to estimate the pixel-based landslide release probability. (iii) We use the cumulative probability density function of the angle of reach of the observed landslide pixels to assign an impact probability to each pixel. (iv) We introduce the zonal probability i.e. the spatial probability that at least one landslide pixel occurs within a zone of defined size. We quantify this relationship by a set of empirical curves. (v) The integrated spatial landslide probability is defined as the maximum of the release probability and the product of the impact probability and the zonal release probability relevant for each pixel. We demonstrate the approach with a 637 km2 study area in southern Taiwan, using an inventory of 1399 landslides triggered by the typhoon Morakot in 2009. We observe that (i) the average integrated spatial landslide probability over the entire study area corresponds reasonably well to the fraction of the observed landside area; (ii) the model performs moderately well in predicting the observed spatial landslide distribution; (iii) the size of the release zone (or any other zone of spatial aggregation) influences the integrated spatial landslide probability to a much higher degree than the pixel-based release probability; (iv) removing the largest landslides from the analysis leads to an enhanced model performance.

  14. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying

  15. Multi input single output model predictive control of non-linear bio-polymerization process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arumugasamy, Senthil Kumar; Ahmad, Z. [School of Chemical Engineering, Univerisiti Sains Malaysia, Engineering Campus, Seri Ampangan,14300 Nibong Tebal, Seberang Perai Selatan, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia)

    2015-05-15

    This paper focuses on Multi Input Single Output (MISO) Model Predictive Control of bio-polymerization process in which mechanistic model is developed and linked with the feedforward neural network model to obtain a hybrid model (Mechanistic-FANN) of lipase-catalyzed ring-opening polymerization of ε-caprolactone (ε-CL) for Poly (ε-caprolactone) production. In this research, state space model was used, in which the input to the model were the reactor temperatures and reactor impeller speeds and the output were the molecular weight of polymer (M{sub n}) and polymer polydispersity index. State space model for MISO created using System identification tool box of Matlab™. This state space model is used in MISO MPC. Model predictive control (MPC) has been applied to predict the molecular weight of the biopolymer and consequently control the molecular weight of biopolymer. The result shows that MPC is able to track reference trajectory and give optimum movement of manipulated variable.

  16. Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yuning

    2015-01-01

    Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

  17. Output feedback model matching in linear impulsive systems with control feedthrough: a structural approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zattoni, Elena

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the problem of structural model matching by output feedback in linear impulsive systems with control feedthrough. Namely, given a linear impulsive plant, possibly featuring an algebraic link from the control input to the output, and given a linear impulsive model, the problem consists in finding a linear impulsive regulator that achieves exact matching between the respective forced responses of the linear impulsive plant and of the linear impulsive model, for all the admissible input functions and all the admissible sequences of jump times, by means of a dynamic feedback of the plant output. The problem solvability is characterized by a necessary and sufficient condition. The regulator synthesis is outlined through the proof of sufficiency, which is constructive.

  18. Modelling and Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aminmohammad Saberian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a solar power modelling method using artificial neural networks (ANNs. Two neural network structures, namely, general regression neural network (GRNN feedforward back propagation (FFBP, have been used to model a photovoltaic panel output power and approximate the generated power. Both neural networks have four inputs and one output. The inputs are maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and irradiance; the output is the power. The data used in this paper started from January 1, 2006, until December 31, 2010. The five years of data were split into two parts: 2006–2008 and 2009-2010; the first part was used for training and the second part was used for testing the neural networks. A mathematical equation is used to estimate the generated power. At the end, both of these networks have shown good modelling performance; however, FFBP has shown a better performance comparing with GRNN.

  19. Wind Farm Flow Modeling using an Input-Output Reduced-Order Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annoni, Jennifer; Gebraad, Pieter; Seiler, Peter

    2016-08-01

    Wind turbines in a wind farm operate individually to maximize their own power regardless of the impact of aerodynamic interactions on neighboring turbines. There is the potential to increase power and reduce overall structural loads by properly coordinating turbines. To perform control design and analysis, a model needs to be of low computational cost, but retains the necessary dynamics seen in high-fidelity models. The objective of this work is to obtain a reduced-order model that represents the full-order flow computed using a high-fidelity model. A variety of methods, including proper orthogonal decomposition and dynamic mode decomposition, can be used to extract the dominant flow structures and obtain a reduced-order model. In this paper, we combine proper orthogonal decomposition with a system identification technique to produce an input-output reduced-order model. This technique is used to construct a reduced-order model of the flow within a two-turbine array computed using a large-eddy simulation.

  20. Towards methodical modelling: Differences between the structure and output dynamics of multiple conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoben, Wouter; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim

    2016-04-01

    Conceptual hydrologic models consist of a certain arrangement of spatial and temporal dynamics consisting of stores, fluxes and transformation functions, depending on the modeller's choices and intended use. They have the advantages of being computationally efficient, being relatively easy model structures to reconfigure and having relatively low input data demands. This makes them well-suited for large-scale and large-sample hydrology, where appropriately representing the dominant hydrologic functions of a catchment is a main concern. Given these requirements, the number of parameters in the model cannot be too high, to avoid equifinality and identifiability issues. This limits the number and level of complexity of dominant hydrologic processes the model can represent. Specific purposes and places thus require a specific model and this has led to an abundance of conceptual hydrologic models. No structured overview of these models exists and there is no clear method to select appropriate model structures for different catchments. This study is a first step towards creating an overview of the elements that make up conceptual models, which may later assist a modeller in finding an appropriate model structure for a given catchment. To this end, this study brings together over 30 past and present conceptual models. The reviewed model structures are simply different configurations of three basic model elements (stores, fluxes and transformation functions), depending on the hydrologic processes the models are intended to represent. Differences also exist in the inner workings of the stores, fluxes and transformations, i.e. the mathematical formulations that describe each model element's intended behaviour. We investigate the hypothesis that different model structures can produce similar behavioural simulations. This can clarify the overview of model elements by grouping elements which are similar, which can improve model structure selection.

  1. Modeling of Output Characteristics of a UV Cu+ Ne-CuBr Laser

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snezhana Georgieva Gocheva-Ilieva

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines experiment data for a Ne-CuBr UV copper ion laser excited by longitudinal pulsed discharge emitting in multiline regime. The flexible multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSs method has been used to develop nonparametric regression models describing the laser output power and service life of the devices. The models have been constructed as explicit functions of 9 basic input laser characteristics. The obtained models account for local nonlinearities of the relationships within the various multivariate subregions. The built best MARS models account for over 98% of data. The models are used to estimate the investigated output laser characteristics of existing UV lasers. The capabilities for using the models in predicting existing and future experiments have been demonstrated. Specific analyses have been presented comparing the models with actual experiments. The obtained results are applicable for guiding and planning the engineering experiment. The modeling methodology can be applied for a wide range of similar lasers and laser devices.

  2. Output Containment Control of Linear Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Systems Using Internal Model Principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Shan; Song, Yongduan; Lewis, Frank L; Davoudi, Ali

    2017-01-04

    This paper studies the output containment control of linear heterogeneous multi-agent systems, where the system dynamics and even the state dimensions can generally be different. Since the states can have different dimensions, standard results from state containment control do not apply. Therefore, the control objective is to guarantee the convergence of the output of each follower to the dynamic convex hull spanned by the outputs of leaders. This can be achieved by making certain output containment errors go to zero asymptotically. Based on this formulation, two different control protocols, namely, full-state feedback and static output-feedback, are designed based on internal model principles. Sufficient local conditions for the existence of the proposed control protocols are developed in terms of stabilizing the local followers' dynamics and satisfying a certain H∞ criterion. Unified design procedures to solve the proposed two control protocols are presented by formulation and solution of certain local state-feedback and static output-feedback problems, respectively. Numerical simulations are given to validate the proposed control protocols.

  3. Stochastic spatial models of plant diseases

    CERN Document Server

    Brown, D H

    2001-01-01

    I present three models of plant--pathogen interactions. The models are stochastic and spatially explicit at the scale of individual plants. For each model, I use a version of pair approximation or moment closure along with a separation of timescales argument to determine the effects of spatial clustering on threshold structure. By computing the spatial structure early in an invasion, I find explicit corrections to mean field theory. In the first chapter, I present a lattice model of a disease that is not directly lethal to its host, but affects its ability to compete with neighbors. I use a type of pair approximation to determine conditions for invasions and coexistence. In the second chapter, I study a basic SIR epidemic point process in continuous space. I implement a multiplicative moment closure scheme to compute the threshold transmission rate as a function of spatial parameters. In the final chapter, I model the evolution of pathogen resistance when two plant species share a pathogen. Evolution may lead...

  4. Spatial Preference Modelling for equitable infrastructure provision: an application of Sen's Capability Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wismadi, Arif; Zuidgeest, Mark; Brussel, Mark; van Maarseveen, Martin

    2014-01-01

    To determine whether the inclusion of spatial neighbourhood comparison factors in Preference Modelling allows spatial decision support systems (SDSSs) to better address spatial equity, we introduce Spatial Preference Modelling (SPM). To evaluate the effectiveness of this model in addressing equity, various standardisation functions in both Non-Spatial Preference Modelling and SPM are compared. The evaluation involves applying the model to a resource location-allocation problem for transport infrastructure in the Special Province of Yogyakarta in Indonesia. We apply Amartya Sen's Capability Approach to define opportunity to mobility as a non-income indicator. Using the extended Moran's I interpretation for spatial equity, we evaluate the distribution output regarding, first, `the spatial distribution patterns of priority targeting for allocation' (SPT) and, second, `the effect of new distribution patterns after location-allocation' (ELA). The Moran's I index of the initial map and its comparison with six patterns for SPT as well as ELA consistently indicates that the SPM is more effective for addressing spatial equity. We conclude that the inclusion of spatial neighbourhood comparison factors in Preference Modelling improves the capability of SDSS to address spatial equity. This study thus proposes a new formal method for SDSS with specific attention on resource location-allocation to address spatial equity.

  5. Spatial Models and Networks of Living Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Jeppe Søgaard

    . Such systems are known to be stabilized by spatial structure. Finally, I analyse data from a large mobile phone network and show that people who are topologically close in the network have similar communication patterns. This main part of the thesis is based on six different articles, which I have co...... variables of the system. However, this approach disregards any spatial structure of the system, which may potentially change the behaviour drastically. An alternative approach is to construct a cellular automaton with nearest neighbour interactions, or even to model the system as a complex network...... with interactions defined by network topology. In this thesis I first describe three different biological models of ageing and cancer, in which spatial structure is important for the system dynamics. I then turn to describe characteristics of ecosystems consisting of three cyclically interacting species...

  6. Spatially explicit non-Mendelian diploid model

    CERN Document Server

    Lanchier, N; 10.1214/09-AAP598

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a spatially explicit model for the competition between type $a$ and type $b$ alleles. Each vertex of the $d$-dimensional integer lattice is occupied by a diploid individual, which is in one of three possible states or genotypes: $aa$, $ab$ or $bb$. We are interested in the long-term behavior of the gene frequencies when Mendel's law of segregation does not hold. This results in a voter type model depending on four parameters; each of these parameters measures the strength of competition between genes during meiosis. We prove that with or without a spatial structure, type $a$ and type $b$ alleles coexist at equilibrium when homozygotes are poor competitors. The inclusion of a spatial structure, however, reduces the parameter region where coexistence occurs.

  7. Queueing model for an ATM multiplexer with unequal input/output link capacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Y. H.; Ho, T. K.; Rad, A. B.; Lam, S. P. S.

    1998-10-01

    We present a queuing model for an ATM multiplexer with unequal input/output link capacities in this paper. This model can be used to analyze the buffer behaviors of an ATM multiplexer which multiplexes low speed input links into a high speed output link. For this queuing mode, we assume that the input and output slot times are not equal, this is quite different from most analysis of discrete-time queues for ATM multiplexer/switch. In the queuing analysis, we adopt a correlated arrival process represented by the Discrete-time Batch Markovian Arrival Process. The analysis is based upon M/G/1 type queue technique which enables easy numerical computation. Queue length distributions observed at different epochs and queue length distribution seen by an arbitrary arrival cell when it enters the buffer are given.

  8. Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R

    2014-03-01

    Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics.

  9. The 3-D global spatial data model foundation of the spatial data infrastructure

    CERN Document Server

    Burkholder, Earl F

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods for handling spatial data are encumbered by the assumption of separate origins for horizontal and vertical measurements. Modern measurement systems operate in a 3-D spatial environment. The 3-D Global Spatial Data Model: Foundation of the Spatial Data Infrastructure offers a new model for handling digital spatial data, the global spatial data model or GSDM. The GSDM preserves the integrity of three-dimensional spatial data while also providing additional benefits such as simpler equations, worldwide standardization, and the ability to track spatial data accuracy with greater specificity and convenience. This groundbreaking spatial model incorporates both a functional model and a stochastic model to connect the physical world to the ECEF rectangular system. Combining horizontal and vertical data into a single, three-dimensional database, this authoritative monograph provides a logical development of theoretical concepts and practical tools that can be used to handle spatial data mo...

  10. A hippocampal cognitive prosthesis: multi-input, multi-output nonlinear modeling and VLSI implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Theodore W; Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H M; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; LaCoss, Jeff; Wills, Jack; Hampson, Robert E; Deadwyler, Sam A; Granacki, John J

    2012-03-01

    This paper describes the development of a cognitive prosthesis designed to restore the ability to form new long-term memories typically lost after damage to the hippocampus. The animal model used is delayed nonmatch-to-sample (DNMS) behavior in the rat, and the "core" of the prosthesis is a biomimetic multi-input/multi-output (MIMO) nonlinear model that provides the capability for predicting spatio-temporal spike train output of hippocampus (CA1) based on spatio-temporal spike train inputs recorded presynaptically to CA1 (e.g., CA3). We demonstrate the capability of the MIMO model for highly accurate predictions of CA1 coded memories that can be made on a single-trial basis and in real-time. When hippocampal CA1 function is blocked and long-term memory formation is lost, successful DNMS behavior also is abolished. However, when MIMO model predictions are used to reinstate CA1 memory-related activity by driving spatio-temporal electrical stimulation of hippocampal output to mimic the patterns of activity observed in control conditions, successful DNMS behavior is restored. We also outline the design in very-large-scale integration for a hardware implementation of a 16-input, 16-output MIMO model, along with spike sorting, amplification, and other functions necessary for a total system, when coupled together with electrode arrays to record extracellularly from populations of hippocampal neurons, that can serve as a cognitive prosthesis in behaving animals.

  11. Model of small-scale self-focusing and spatial noise in high power laser driver

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU; Wei(胡巍); FU; Xiquan(傅喜泉); YU; Song; (喻松); GUO; Hong(郭弘)

    2002-01-01

    A linearization model was used to analyze the laser beam propagation in a high power laser driver and the influence of the small-scale self-focusing and spatial phase noise on beam quality in disk amplifiers. The quantitative relations between intensities of spatial phase noise, B-integral, and beam intensity contrast in near field are given explicitly. A spectrum specification of phase noise has been obtained by setting a limit to the contrast of an output beam.

  12. Modeling Spatially Unrestricted Pedestrian Traffic on Footbridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zivanovic, Stana; Pavic, Aleksandar; Ingólfsson, Einar Thór

    2010-01-01

    The research into modelling walking-induced dynamic loading and its effects on footbridge structures and people using them has been intensified in the last decade after some high profile vibration serviceability failures. In particular, the crowd induced loading, characterised by spatially...... restricted movement of pedestrians, has kept attracting attention of researchers. However, it is the normal spatially unrestricted pedestrian traffic, and its vertical dynamic loading component, that are most relevant for vibration serviceability checks for most footbridges. Despite the existence of numerous...... design procedures concerned with this loading, the current confidence in its modelling is low due to lack of verification of the models on as-built structures. This is the motivation behind reviewing the existing design procedures for modelling normal pedestrian traffic in this paper and evaluating...

  13. Modelling spatial density using continuous wavelet transforms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    D Sudheer Reddy; N Gopal Reddy; A K Anilkumar

    2013-02-01

    Due to increase in the satelite launch activities from many countries around the world the orbital debris issue has become a major concern for the space agencies to plan a collision-free orbit design. The risk of collisions is calculated using the in situ measurements and available models. Spatial density models are useful in understanding the long-term likelihood of a collision in a particular region of space and also helpful in pre-launch orbit planning. In this paper, we present a method of estimating model parameters such as number of peaks and peak locations of spatial density model using continuous wavelets. The proposed methodology was experimented with two line element data and the results are presented.

  14. Comparison of alternative spatial resolutions in the application of a spatially distributed biogeochemical model over complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D.P.; Dodson, R.; Marks, D.

    1996-01-01

    Spatially distributed biogeochemical models may be applied over grids at a range of spatial resolutions, however, evaluation of potential errors and loss of information at relatively coarse resolutions is rare. In this study, a georeferenced database at the 1-km spatial resolution was developed to initialize and drive a process-based model (Forest-BGC) of water and carbon balance over a gridded 54976 km2 area covering two river basins in mountainous western Oregon. Corresponding data sets were also prepared at 10-km and 50-km spatial resolutions using commonly employed aggregation schemes. Estimates were made at each grid cell for climate variables including daily solar radiation, air temperature, humidity, and precipitation. The topographic structure, water holding capacity, vegetation type and leaf area index were likewise estimated for initial conditions. The daily time series for the climatic drivers was developed from interpolations of meteorological station data for the water year 1990 (1 October 1989-30 September 1990). Model outputs at the 1-km resolution showed good agreement with observed patterns in runoff and productivity. The ranges for model inputs at the 10-km and 50-km resolutions tended to contract because of the smoothed topography. Estimates for mean evapotranspiration and runoff were relatively insensitive to changing the spatial resolution of the grid whereas estimates of mean annual net primary production varied by 11%. The designation of a vegetation type and leaf area at the 50-km resolution often subsumed significant heterogeneity in vegetation, and this factor accounted for much of the difference in the mean values for the carbon flux variables. Although area wide means for model outputs were generally similar across resolutions, difference maps often revealed large areas of disagreement. Relatively high spatial resolution analyses of biogeochemical cycling are desirable from several perspectives and may be particularly important in the

  15. A global parallel model based design of experiments method to minimize model output uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazil, Jason N; Buzzard, Gregory T; Rundell, Ann E

    2012-03-01

    Model-based experiment design specifies the data to be collected that will most effectively characterize the biological system under study. Existing model-based design of experiment algorithms have primarily relied on Fisher Information Matrix-based methods to choose the best experiment in a sequential manner. However, these are largely local methods that require an initial estimate of the parameter values, which are often highly uncertain, particularly when data is limited. In this paper, we provide an approach to specify an informative sequence of multiple design points (parallel design) that will constrain the dynamical uncertainty of the biological system responses to within experimentally detectable limits as specified by the estimated experimental noise. The method is based upon computationally efficient sparse grids and requires only a bounded uncertain parameter space; it does not rely upon initial parameter estimates. The design sequence emerges through the use of scenario trees with experimental design points chosen to minimize the uncertainty in the predicted dynamics of the measurable responses of the system. The algorithm was illustrated herein using a T cell activation model for three problems that ranged in dimension from 2D to 19D. The results demonstrate that it is possible to extract useful information from a mathematical model where traditional model-based design of experiments approaches most certainly fail. The experiments designed via this method fully constrain the model output dynamics to within experimentally resolvable limits. The method is effective for highly uncertain biological systems characterized by deterministic mathematical models with limited data sets. Also, it is highly modular and can be modified to include a variety of methodologies such as input design and model discrimination.

  16. Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Schaefli, Bettina; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still ongoing. Calibration and parameter estimation of such models represents a major challenge because of properties unusual in traditional geoscientific domains such as hydrology. Firstly, the epidemiological data available might be subject to high uncertainties due to error-prone diagnosis as well as manual (and possibly incomplete) data collection. Secondly, long-term time-series of epidemiological data are often unavailable. Finally, the spatially explicit character of the models requires the comparison of several time-series of model outputs with their real-world counterparts, which calls for an appropriate weighting scheme. It follows that the usual assumption of a homoscedastic Gaussian error distribution, used in combination with classical calibration techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, is likely to be violated, whereas the construction of an appropriate formal likelihood function seems close to impossible. Alternative calibration methods, which allow for accurate estimation of total model uncertainty, particularly regarding the envisaged use of the models for decision-making, are thus needed. Here we present the most recent developments regarding methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation to be used with our mechanistic, spatially explicit models for cholera epidemics, based on informal measures of goodness of fit.

  17. Spatial Models and Networks of Living Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Jeppe Søgaard

    variables of the system. However, this approach disregards any spatial structure of the system, which may potentially change the behaviour drastically. An alternative approach is to construct a cellular automaton with nearest neighbour interactions, or even to model the system as a complex network....... Such systems are known to be stabilized by spatial structure. Finally, I analyse data from a large mobile phone network and show that people who are topologically close in the network have similar communication patterns. This main part of the thesis is based on six different articles, which I have co...

  18. Light output measurements and computational models of microcolumnar CsI scintillators for x-ray imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nillius, Peter, E-mail: nillius@mi.physics.kth.se; Klamra, Wlodek; Danielsson, Mats [Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm SE-100 44 (Sweden); Sibczynski, Pawel [National Centre for Nuclear Research, Otwock 05-400 (Poland); Sharma, Diksha; Badano, Aldo [Division of Imaging, Diagnostics, and Software Reliability, Office of Science and Engineering Laboratories, Center for Devices and Radiological Health, FDA, Silver Spring, Maryland 20993 (United States)

    2015-02-15

    Purpose: The authors report on measurements of light output and spatial resolution of microcolumnar CsI:Tl scintillator detectors for x-ray imaging. In addition, the authors discuss the results of simulations aimed at analyzing the results of synchrotron and sealed-source exposures with respect to the contributions of light transport to the total light output. Methods: The authors measured light output from a 490-μm CsI:Tl scintillator screen using two setups. First, the authors used a photomultiplier tube (PMT) to measure the response of the scintillator to sealed-source exposures. Second, the authors performed imaging experiments with a 27-keV monoenergetic synchrotron beam and a slit to calculate the total signal generated in terms of optical photons per keV. The results of both methods are compared to simulations obtained with hybridMANTIS, a coupled x-ray, electron, and optical photon Monte Carlo transport package. The authors report line response (LR) and light output for a range of linear absorption coefficients and describe a model that fits at the same time the light output and the blur measurements. Comparing the experimental results with the simulations, the authors obtained an estimate of the absorption coefficient for the model that provides good agreement with the experimentally measured LR. Finally, the authors report light output simulation results and their dependence on scintillator thickness and reflectivity of the backing surface. Results: The slit images from the synchrotron were analyzed to obtain a total light output of 48 keV{sup −1} while measurements using the fast PMT instrument setup and sealed-sources reported a light output of 28 keV{sup −1}. The authors attribute the difference in light output estimates between the two methods to the difference in time constants between the camera and PMT measurements. Simulation structures were designed to match the light output measured with the camera while providing good agreement with the

  19. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR DETERMINATION OF VOLUMETRIC OUTPUT OF LUMBER FROM LOGS, CONTAINING SEVERAL QUALITY AREAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikryukova E. V.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the article we present a method of cutting logs, containing several quality areas. For this method, a mathematical model was developed to determine the volumetric output of lumber, which allows to determine the geometric dimensions of the lumber cut from the different quality areas separated concentric circles, depending on size and quality characteristics of logs

  20. A model to calculate cardiac output in hemodialysis patients by thermodilution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alayoud Ahmed

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Blood Temperature Monitor module (BTM is used to measure recirculation by thermodilution in dialysis. Numerous studies have confirmed its interest in the measuring of the vascular access flow. In this letter we describe a model to calculate cardiac output in dialysis by the BTM.

  1. Green Input-Output Model for Power Company Theoretical & Application Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Based on the theory of marginal opportunity cost, one kind of green input-output table and models of powercompany are put forward in this paper. For an appliable purpose, analysis of integrated planning, cost analysis, pricingof the power company are also given.

  2. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in Dutch regions: An input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model was constructed for multifunctional agriculture

  3. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in The Netherlands: A regional input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise and uniform definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model is constructed for multifunctional

  4. From LCC to LCA Using a Hybrid Input Output Model – A Maritime Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Louise Laumann; Pagoropoulos, Aris; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky;

    2015-01-01

    As companies try to embrace life cycle thinking, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Costing (LCC) have proven to be powerful tools. In this paper, an Environmental Input-Output model is used for analysis as it enables an LCA using the same economic input data as LCC. This approach helps...

  5. Characteristic operator functions for quantum input-plant-output models and coherent control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gough, John E.

    2015-01-01

    We introduce the characteristic operator as the generalization of the usual concept of a transfer function of linear input-plant-output systems to arbitrary quantum nonlinear Markovian input-output models. This is intended as a tool in the characterization of quantum feedback control systems that fits in with the general theory of networks. The definition exploits the linearity of noise differentials in both the plant Heisenberg equations of motion and the differential form of the input-output relations. Mathematically, the characteristic operator is a matrix of dimension equal to the number of outputs times the number of inputs (which must coincide), but with entries that are operators of the plant system. In this sense, the characteristic operator retains details of the effective plant dynamical structure and is an essentially quantum object. We illustrate the relevance to model reduction and simplification definition by showing that the convergence of the characteristic operator in adiabatic elimination limit models requires the same conditions and assumptions appearing in the work on limit quantum stochastic differential theorems of Bouten and Silberfarb [Commun. Math. Phys. 283, 491-505 (2008)]. This approach also shows in a natural way that the limit coefficients of the quantum stochastic differential equations in adiabatic elimination problems arise algebraically as Schur complements and amounts to a model reduction where the fast degrees of freedom are decoupled from the slow ones and eliminated.

  6. Fundamental Frequency and Model Order Estimation Using Spatial Filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karimian-Azari, Sam; Jensen, Jesper Rindom; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

    2014-01-01

    extend this procedure to account for inharmonicity using unconstrained model order estimation. The simulations show that beamforming improves the performance of the joint estimates of fundamental frequency and the number of harmonics in low signal to interference (SIR) levels, and an experiment......In signal processing applications of harmonic-structured signals, estimates of the fundamental frequency and number of harmonics are often necessary. In real scenarios, a desired signal is contaminated by different levels of noise and interferers, which complicate the estimation of the signal...... parameters. In this paper, we present an estimation procedure for harmonic-structured signals in situations with strong interference using spatial filtering, or beamforming. We jointly estimate the fundamental frequency and the constrained model order through the output of the beamformers. Besides that, we...

  7. texreg: Conversion of Statistical Model Output in R to LATEX and HTML Tables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Leifeld

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A recurrent task in applied statistics is the (mostly manual preparation of model output for inclusion in LATEX, Microsoft Word, or HTML documents usually with more than one model presented in a single table along with several goodness-of-fit statistics. However, statistical models in R have diverse object structures and summary methods, which makes this process cumbersome. This article first develops a set of guidelines for converting statistical model output to LATEX and HTML tables, then assesses to what extent existing packages meet these requirements, and finally presents the texreg package as a solution that meets all of the criteria set out in the beginning. After providing various usage examples, a blueprint for writing custom model extensions is proposed.

  8. Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

    2017-01-01

    The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.

  9. A nonlocal spatial model for Lyme disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiao; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2016-07-01

    This paper is devoted to the study of a nonlocal and time-delayed reaction-diffusion model for Lyme disease with a spatially heterogeneous structure. In the case of a bounded domain, we first prove the existence of the positive steady state and a threshold type result for the disease-free system, and then establish the global dynamics for the model system in terms of the basic reproduction number. In the case of an unbound domain, we obtain the existence of the disease spreading speed and its coincidence with the minimal wave speed. At last, we use numerical simulations to verify our analytic results and investigate the influence of model parameters and spatial heterogeneity on the disease infection risk.

  10. Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

  11. Efficient Output Solution for Nonlinear Stochastic Optimal Control Problem with Model-Reality Differences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sie Long Kek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A computational approach is proposed for solving the discrete time nonlinear stochastic optimal control problem. Our aim is to obtain the optimal output solution of the original optimal control problem through solving the simplified model-based optimal control problem iteratively. In our approach, the adjusted parameters are introduced into the model used such that the differences between the real system and the model used can be computed. Particularly, system optimization and parameter estimation are integrated interactively. On the other hand, the output is measured from the real plant and is fed back into the parameter estimation problem to establish a matching scheme. During the calculation procedure, the iterative solution is updated in order to approximate the true optimal solution of the original optimal control problem despite model-reality differences. For illustration, a wastewater treatment problem is studied and the results show the efficiency of the approach proposed.

  12. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  13. Linking spatial and dynamic models for traffic maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olderog, Ernst-Rüdiger; Ravn, Anders Peter; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2015-01-01

    For traffic maneuvers of multiple vehicles on highways we build an abstract spatial and a concrete dynamic model. In the spatial model we show the safety (collision freedom) of lane-change maneuvers. By linking the spatial and dynamic model via suitable refinements of the spatial atoms to distance...

  14. Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes

    KAUST Repository

    Jun, M.

    2014-09-16

    © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models\\' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.

  15. Using a nonparametric PV model to forecast AC power output of PV plants

    OpenAIRE

    Almeida, Marcelo Pinho; Perpiñan Lamigueiro, Oscar; Narvarte Fernández, Luis

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a methodology using a nonparametric model is used to forecast AC power output of PV plants using as inputs several forecasts of meteorological variables from a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and actual AC power measurements of PV plants. The methodology was built upon the R environment and uses Quantile Regression Forests as machine learning tool to forecast the AC power with a confidence interval. Real data from five PV plants was used to validate the methodology, an...

  16. Developing a modelling for the spatial data infrastructure

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hjelmager, J

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available The Commission on Spatial Data Standards of the International Cartographic Association (ICA) is working on defining spatial models and technical characteristics of a Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI). To date, this work has been restricted...

  17. Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data

    KAUST Repository

    Krupskii, Pavel

    2016-12-19

    We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.

  18. Simulation model structure numerically robust to changes in magnitude and combination of input and output variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne

    1999-01-01

    instabilities prevent the practical use of such a system model for more than one input/output combination and for other magnitudes of refrigerating capacities.A higher numerical robustness of system models can be achieved by making a model for the refrigeration cycle the core of the system model and by using...... variables with narrow definition intervals for the exchange of information between the cycle model and the component models.The advantages of the cycle-oriented method are illustrated by an example showing the refrigeration cycle similarities between two very different refrigeration systems.......Mathematical models of refrigeration systems are often based on a coupling of component models forming a “closed loop” type of system model. In these models the coupling structure of the component models represents the actual flow path of refrigerant in the system. Very often numerical...

  19. Research of ERP model system of spatial data warehouse

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Xue-long; WANG Yan-zhang

    2004-01-01

    The broad sharing of spatial information is demanded in the infrastructure construction of spatial data in our country. And the spatial data warehouse realizes the effective management and sharing of spatial information serving as an efficient tool. This article proposes ERP model system that of general-decision-oriented for constructing spatial data warehouse from the aspect of decision application. In the end of article, the construction process of spatial data warehouse based on ERP model system is discussed.

  20. Spatial Aggregation: Data Model and Implementation

    CERN Document Server

    Gomez, Leticia; Kuijpers, Bart; Vaisman, Alejandro

    2007-01-01

    Data aggregation in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is only marginally present in commercial systems nowadays, mostly through ad-hoc solutions. In this paper, we first present a formal model for representing spatial data. This model integrates geographic data and information contained in data warehouses external to the GIS. We define the notion of geometric aggregation, a general framework for aggregate queries in a GIS setting. We also identify the class of summable queries, which can be efficiently evaluated by precomputing the overlay of two or more of the thematic layers involved in the query. We also sketch a language, denoted GISOLAP-QL, for expressing queries that involve GIS and OLAP features. In addition, we introduce Piet, an implementation of our proposal, that makes use of overlay precomputation for answering spatial queries (aggregate or not). Our experimental evaluation showed that for a certain class of geometric queries with or without aggregation, overlay precomputation outperforms R-tre...

  1. Linear and quadratic models of point process systems: contributions of patterned input to output.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, K A; Rosenberg, J R

    2012-08-01

    In the 1880's Volterra characterised a nonlinear system using a functional series connecting continuous input and continuous output. Norbert Wiener, in the 1940's, circumvented problems associated with the application of Volterra series to physical problems by deriving from it a new series of terms that are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Gaussian processes. Subsequently, Brillinger, in the 1970's, introduced a point-process analogue of Volterra's series connecting point-process inputs to the instantaneous rate of point-process output. We derive here a new series from this analogue in which its terms are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Poisson processes. This new series expresses how patterned input in a spike train, represented by third-order cross-cumulants, is converted into the instantaneous rate of an output point-process. Given experimental records of suitable duration, the contribution of arbitrary patterned input to an output process can, in principle, be determined. Solutions for linear and quadratic point-process models with one and two inputs and a single output are investigated. Our theoretical results are applied to isolated muscle spindle data in which the spike trains from the primary and secondary endings from the same muscle spindle are recorded in response to stimulation of one and then two static fusimotor axons in the absence and presence of a random length change imposed on the parent muscle. For a fixed mean rate of input spikes, the analysis of the experimental data makes explicit which patterns of two input spikes contribute to an output spike.

  2. Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinzon, Jorge E.

    2010-01-01

    This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

  3. Application of a Linear Input/Output Model to Tankless Water Heaters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butcher T.; Schoenbauer, B.

    2011-12-31

    In this study, the applicability of a linear input/output model to gas-fired, tankless water heaters has been evaluated. This simple model assumes that the relationship between input and output, averaged over both active draw and idle periods, is linear. This approach is being applied to boilers in other studies and offers the potential to make a small number of simple measurements to obtain the model parameters. These parameters can then be used to predict performance under complex load patterns. Both condensing and non-condensing water heaters have been tested under a very wide range of load conditions. It is shown that this approach can be used to reproduce performance metrics, such as the energy factor, and can be used to evaluate the impacts of alternative draw patterns and conditions.

  4. Output-only identification of civil structures using nonlinear finite element model updating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Hamed; Astroza, Rodrigo; Conte, Joel P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper presents a novel approach for output-only nonlinear system identification of structures using data recorded during earthquake events. In this approach, state-of-the-art nonlinear structural FE modeling and analysis techniques are combined with Bayesian Inference method to estimate (i) time-invariant parameters governing the nonlinear hysteretic material constitutive models used in the FE model of the structure, and (ii) the time history of the earthquake ground motion. To validate the performance of the proposed framework, the simulated responses of a bridge pier to an earthquake ground motion is polluted with artificial output measurement noise and used to jointly estimate the unknown material parameters and the time history of the earthquake ground motion. This proof-of-concept example illustrates the successful performance of the proposed approach even in the presence of high measurement noise.

  5. The quantitative modelling of human spatial habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wise, James A.

    1988-01-01

    A theoretical model for evaluating human spatial habitability (HuSH) in the proposed U.S. Space Station is developed. Optimizing the fitness of the space station environment for human occupancy will help reduce environmental stress due to long-term isolation and confinement in its small habitable volume. The development of tools that operationalize the behavioral bases of spatial volume for visual kinesthetic, and social logic considerations is suggested. This report further calls for systematic scientific investigations of how much real and how much perceived volume people need in order to function normally and with minimal stress in space-based settings. The theoretical model presented in this report can be applied to any size or shape interior, at any scale of consideration, for the Space Station as a whole to an individual enclosure or work station. Using as a point of departure the Isovist model developed by Dr. Michael Benedikt of the U. of Texas, the report suggests that spatial habitability can become as amenable to careful assessment as engineering and life support concerns.

  6. Indoorgml - a Standard for Indoor Spatial Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ki-Joune

    2016-06-01

    With recent progress of mobile devices and indoor positioning technologies, it becomes possible to provide location-based services in indoor space as well as outdoor space. It is in a seamless way between indoor and outdoor spaces or in an independent way only for indoor space. However, we cannot simply apply spatial models developed for outdoor space to indoor space due to their differences. For example, coordinate reference systems are employed to indicate a specific position in outdoor space, while the location in indoor space is rather specified by cell number such as room number. Unlike outdoor space, the distance between two points in indoor space is not determined by the length of the straight line but the constraints given by indoor components such as walls, stairs, and doors. For this reason, we need to establish a new framework for indoor space from fundamental theoretical basis, indoor spatial data models, and information systems to store, manage, and analyse indoor spatial data. In order to provide this framework, an international standard, called IndoorGML has been developed and published by OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium). This standard is based on a cellular notion of space, which considers an indoor space as a set of non-overlapping cells. It consists of two types of modules; core module and extension module. While core module consists of four basic conceptual and implementation modeling components (geometric model for cell, topology between cells, semantic model of cell, and multi-layered space model), extension modules may be defined on the top of the core module to support an application area. As the first version of the standard, we provide an extension for indoor navigation.

  7. Analysis of inter-variable relations in regional climate model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcke, Renate; Chandler, Richard

    2015-04-01

    The topic of physical consistency and inter-variable relations of climate model output, in particular when applying statistical downscaling and bias correction to single variables, is widely discussed in the climate impact modelling and climate impact communities. Many situations require the consideration of several climate variables simultaneously, as a result of which it is also necessary to check that the inter-variable dependence structure is simulated realistically by the RCMs. Given that it is common practice to bias-adjust RCM outputs so as to improve their properties with respect to the distribution of variables taken individually, it is also of interest to determine whether inter-variable relationships are affected by empirical bias adjustment procedures such as quantile mapping, that are applied separately to each variable. A pragmatic reason to look at this is, if bias-adjusted outputs are to be used in impacts studies, it is necessary to check that the inter-variable relationships are realistic. A more fundamental reason is, that RCMs are physically based and, before bias correction, their outputs should therefore ideally be physically consistent. However, an empirical bias adjustment procedure has the potential to break the physical consistency, thereby removing one of the strongest justifications for using RCMs in the first place. Based on these considerations, the study aims to answer two questions. The first is to assess the inter-variable relationships in a suite of RCM outputs in more detail than has previously been attempted, by examining conditional probability densities instead of correlations. The second is to quantify the extent to which these conditional densities are distorted by an empirical bias adjustment procedure. The results can be used both to evaluate the ability of current RCMs (bias-adjusted or not) to provide useful information for climate change impact assessments; and also to determine the viability of quantile mapping as a

  8. Isard's contributions to spatial interaction modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Kelly, M. E.

    . This short review, surveys Isard's role in promoting what has become known as spatial interaction modeling. Some contextual information on the milieu from which his work emerged is given, together with a selected number of works that are judged to have been influenced (directly and indirectly) by his work. It is suggested that this burgeoning field owes a lot to the foundations laid in the gravity model chapter of ``Methods''. The review is supplemented by a rather extensive bibliography of additional works that are indicative of the breadth of the impact of this field.

  9. Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Nonparametric Durbin Models with Fixed Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Minghui; Hu, Ridong; Chen, Jianwei

    2016-01-01

    Spatial panel data models have been widely studied and applied in both scientific and social science disciplines, especially in the analysis of spatial influence. In this paper, we consider the spatial dynamic nonparametric Durbin model (SDNDM) with fixed effects, which takes the nonlinear factors into account base on the spatial dynamic panel…

  10. The quantitative modelling of human spatial habitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wise, J. A.

    1985-01-01

    A model for the quantitative assessment of human spatial habitability is presented in the space station context. The visual aspect assesses how interior spaces appear to the inhabitants. This aspect concerns criteria such as sensed spaciousness and the affective (emotional) connotations of settings' appearances. The kinesthetic aspect evaluates the available space in terms of its suitability to accommodate human movement patterns, as well as the postural and anthrometric changes due to microgravity. Finally, social logic concerns how the volume and geometry of available space either affirms or contravenes established social and organizational expectations for spatial arrangements. Here, the criteria include privacy, status, social power, and proxemics (the uses of space as a medium of social communication).

  11. Modeling the spatial reach of the LFP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindén, Henrik; Tetzlaff, Tom; Potjans, Tobias C; Pettersen, Klas H; Grün, Sonja; Diesmann, Markus; Einevoll, Gaute T

    2011-12-08

    The local field potential (LFP) reflects activity of many neurons in the vicinity of the recording electrode and is therefore useful for studying local network dynamics. Much of the nature of the LFP is, however, still unknown. There are, for instance, contradicting reports on the spatial extent of the region generating the LFP. Here, we use a detailed biophysical modeling approach to investigate the size of the contributing region by simulating the LFP from a large number of neurons around the electrode. We find that the size of the generating region depends on the neuron morphology, the synapse distribution, and the correlation in synaptic activity. For uncorrelated activity, the LFP represents cells in a small region (within a radius of a few hundred micrometers). If the LFP contributions from different cells are correlated, the size of the generating region is determined by the spatial extent of the correlated activity.

  12. Minimal state space realisation of continuous-time linear time-variant input-output models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goos, J.; Pintelon, R.

    2016-04-01

    In the linear time-invariant (LTI) framework, the transformation from an input-output equation into state space representation is well understood. Several canonical forms exist that realise the same dynamic behaviour. If the coefficients become time-varying however, the LTI transformation no longer holds. We prove by induction that there exists a closed-form expression for the observability canonical state space model, using binomial coefficients.

  13. Input-to-output transformation in a model of the rat hippocampal CA1 network

    OpenAIRE

    Olypher, Andrey V; Lytton, William W; Prinz, Astrid A.

    2012-01-01

    Here we use computational modeling to gain new insights into the transformation of inputs in hippocampal field CA1. We considered input-output transformation in CA1 principal cells of the rat hippocampus, with activity synchronized by population gamma oscillations. Prior experiments have shown that such synchronization is especially strong for cells within one millimeter of each other. We therefore simulated a one-millimeter patch of CA1 with 23,500 principal cells. We used morphologically an...

  14. The Canadian Defence Input-Output Model DIO Version 4.41

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    Output models, for instance to study the regional benefits of different large procure- ment programmes, the data censorship limitation would...excluding potato chips and nuts 113 0960 Cocoa and chocolate 114 0979 Nuts DRDC CORA TM 2011-147 31 Index Code Commodity name 115 0989 Chocolate...Private hospital services 631 5631 Private residential care facilities 632 5632 Child care, outside the home 633 5633 Other health and social services 634

  15. Statistical selection of multiple-input multiple-output nonlinear dynamic models of spike train transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Dong; Chan, Rosa H M; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; Hampson, Robert E; Deadwyler, Sam A; Berger, Theodore W

    2007-01-01

    Multiple-input multiple-output nonlinear dynamic model of spike train to spike train transformations was previously formulated for hippocampal-cortical prostheses. This paper further described the statistical methods of selecting significant inputs (self-terms) and interactions between inputs (cross-terms) of this Volterra kernel-based model. In our approach, model structure was determined by progressively adding self-terms and cross-terms using a forward stepwise model selection technique. Model coefficients were then pruned based on Wald test. Results showed that the reduced kernel models, which contained much fewer coefficients than the full Volterra kernel model, gave good fits to the novel data. These models could be used to analyze the functional interactions between neurons during behavior.

  16. Spatial Database Modeling for Indoor Navigation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gotlib, Dariusz; Gnat, Miłosz

    2013-12-01

    For many years, cartographers are involved in designing GIS and navigation systems. Most GIS applications use the outdoor data. Increasingly, similar applications are used inside buildings. Therefore it is important to find the proper model of indoor spatial database. The development of indoor navigation systems should utilize advanced teleinformation, geoinformatics, geodetic and cartographical knowledge. The authors present the fundamental requirements for the indoor data model for navigation purposes. Presenting some of the solutions adopted in the world they emphasize that navigation applications require specific data to present the navigation routes in the right way. There is presented original solution for indoor data model created by authors on the basis of BISDM model. Its purpose is to expand the opportunities for use in indoor navigation.

  17. Including spatial data in nutrient balance modelling on dairy farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, Maricke; van Middelaar, Corina; Stoof, Cathelijne; Oenema, Jouke; Stoorvogel, Jetse; de Boer, Imke

    2017-04-01

    The Annual Nutrient Cycle Assessment (ANCA) calculates the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balance at a dairy farm, while taking into account the subsequent nutrient cycles of the herd, manure, soil and crop components. Since January 2016, Dutch dairy farmers are required to use ANCA in order to increase understanding of nutrient flows and to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. A nutrient balance calculates the difference between nutrient inputs and outputs. Nutrients enter the farm via purchased feed, fertilizers, deposition and fixation by legumes (nitrogen), and leave the farm via milk, livestock, manure, and roughages. A positive balance indicates to which extent N and/or P are lost to the environment via gaseous emissions (N), leaching, run-off and accumulation in soil. A negative balance indicates that N and/or P are depleted from soil. ANCA was designed to calculate average nutrient flows on farm level (for the herd, manure, soil and crop components). ANCA was not designed to perform calculations of nutrient flows at the field level, as it uses averaged nutrient inputs and outputs across all fields, and it does not include field specific soil characteristics. Land management decisions, however, such as the level of N and P application, are typically taken at the field level given the specific crop and soil characteristics. Therefore the information that ANCA provides is likely not sufficient to support farmers' decisions on land management to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. This is particularly a problem when land management and soils vary between fields. For an accurate estimate of nutrient flows in a given farming system that can be used to optimize land management, the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs (and thus the effect of land management and soil variation) could be essential. Our aim was to determine the effect of the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs on modelled nutrient flows and nutrient use efficiencies

  18. Spatial Modeling in The Coastal Area of East Java Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadlilah Kurniawati, Ummi

    2017-07-01

    The existence of gaps that occur between regions, shows that it is a reasonable process considering that each region has different initial endowment factors. The first step that can be done to controll disparity is know what is the benchmark of the gap. The revenue growth indicator is one of benchmark for measuring regional disparities. The regional output is represented by the gross domestic regional income per capita. Concerning the phenomenon of regional disparity, East Java Province is concentrated in the north-south part, especially in coastal areas is an early indication of the gap. This is what prompted the analysis of predictor factors affecting the disparity in East Java Coastal Areas through a spatial modeling approach. Spatial modeling is done on the consideration that there are different local characteristics or potentials in each regency / city. Factors Economic growth, social factors, and physical development factors are the main factors in this study will be described in derived variables to obtain a clear picture of the influence of each factor to the disparity that occurred in the Coastal Region of East Java Province.

  19. Spatially varying coefficient models in real estate: Eigenvector spatial filtering and alternative approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Helbich, M; Griffith, D

    2016-01-01

    Real estate policies in urban areas require the recognition of spatial heterogeneity in housing prices to account for local settings. In response to the growing number of spatially varying coefficient models in housing applications, this study evaluated four models in terms of their spatial patterns

  20. A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel D. Cavanagh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer, there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.

  1. A Computational Model of Spatial Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiraki, Kazuo; Sashima, Akio; Phillips, Steven

    Psychological experiments on children's development of spatial knowledge suggest experience at self-locomotion with visual tracking as important factors. Yet, the mechanism underlying development is unknown. We propose a robot that learns to mentally track a target object (i.e., maintaining a representation of an object's position when outside the field-of-view) as a model for spatial development. Mental tracking is considered as prediction of an object's position given the previous environmental state and motor commands, and the current environment state resulting from movement. Following Jordan & Rumelhart's (1992) forward modeling architecture the system consists of two components: an inverse model of sensory input to desired motor commands; and a forward model of motor commands to desired sensory input (goals). The robot was tested on the `three cups' paradigm (where children are required to select the cup containing the hidden object under various movement conditions). Consistent with child development, without the capacity for self-locomotion the robot's errors are self-center based. When given the ability of self-locomotion the robot responds allocentrically.

  2. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  3. Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

  4. An Optimized Grey Dynamic Model for Forecasting the Output of High-Tech Industry in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Xin Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The grey dynamic model by convolution integral with the first-order derivative of the 1-AGO data and n series related, abbreviated as GDMC(1,n, performs well in modelling and forecasting of a grey system. To improve the modelling accuracy of GDMC(1,n, n interpolation coefficients (taken as unknown parameters are introduced into the background values of the n variables. The parameters optimization is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem and is solved collectively using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The optimized result has been verified by a case study of the economic output of high-tech industry in China. Comparisons of the obtained modelling results from the optimized GDMC(1,n model with the traditional one demonstrate that the optimal algorithm is a good alternative for parameters optimization of the GDMC(1,n model. The modelling results can assist the government in developing future policies regarding high-tech industry management.

  5. Usefulness of non-linear input-output models for economic impact analyses in tourism and recreation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Peerlings, J.H.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    In tourism and recreation management it is still common practice to apply traditional input–output (IO) economic impact models, despite their well-known limitations. In this study the authors analyse the usefulness of applying a non-linear input–output (NLIO) model, in which price-induced input subs

  6. Evaluation of cardiac output from a tidally ventilated homogeneous lung model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benallal, Habib; Beck, Kenneth C; Johnson, Bruce D; Busso, Thierry

    2005-10-01

    We used the direct Fick measurements to validate a method for estimating cardiac output by iteratively fitting VCO(2) at the mouth to lung model values. This model was run using a series of 50, 30 and 10 breaths to test sensitivity to number of breaths used for fitting. The lung was treated as a catenary two-compartment lung model consisting of a dead space compartment connected with a single alveolar space compartment, perfused with constant pulmonary blood flow. The implemented mathematical modeling described variations in O(2) and CO(2) compartmental fractions and alveolar volume. This model also included pulmonary capillary gas exchange. Experimental data were collected from measurements performed on six healthy subjects at rest and during 20, 40, 60 and 85-90% of peak V(O)(2). The correlation between the two methods was highest and the average agreement between the methods was best using 50 breaths R = 095; P model) = 1.1Q(Fick) - 2.3). The mean difference and lower to upper limits of agreement between measured and estimated data were 0.7 l/min (-2.7 to 4.1 l/min) for cardiac output; -0.9 ml/100 ml (-1.3 to -0.5 ml/100 ml) for arterial O(2) content; -0.8 ml/100 ml (-3.8 to 2.2 ml/100 ml) for mixed venous O(2) content and -0.1 ml/100 ml (-2.9 to 2.7 ml/100 ml) for arteriovenous difference O(2) content. The cardiac output estimated by the lung model was in good agreement with the direct Fick measurements in young healthy subjects.

  7. Finite element modeling of passive material influence on the deformation and force output of skeletal muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, John A; Chi, Sheng-Wei; Yang, Judy P; Chen, Jiun-Shyan; Edgerton, Victor R; Sinha, Shantanu

    2012-05-01

    The pattern of deformation of different structural components of a muscle-tendon complex when it is activated provides important information about the internal mechanics of the muscle. Recent experimental observations of deformations in contracting muscle have presented inconsistencies with current widely held assumption about muscle behavior. These include negative strain in aponeuroses, non-uniform strain changes in sarcomeres, even of individual muscle fibers and evidence that muscle fiber cross sectional deformations are asymmetrical suggesting a need to readjust current models of contracting muscle. We report here our use of finite element modeling techniques to simulate a simple muscle-tendon complex and investigate the influence of passive intramuscular material properties upon the deformation patterns under isometric and shortening conditions. While phenomenological force-displacement relationships described the muscle fiber properties, the material properties of the passive matrix were varied to simulate a hydrostatic model, compliant and stiff isotropically hyperelastic models and an anisotropic elastic model. The numerical results demonstrate that passive elastic material properties significantly influence the magnitude, heterogeneity and distribution pattern of many measures of deformation in a contracting muscle. Measures included aponeurosis strain, aponeurosis separation, muscle fiber strain and fiber cross-sectional deformation. The force output of our simulations was strongly influenced by passive material properties, changing by as much as ~80% under some conditions. The maximum output was accomplished by introducing anisotropy along axes which were not strained significantly during a muscle length change, suggesting that correct costamere orientation may be a critical factor in the optimal muscle function. Such a model not only fits known physiological data, but also maintains the relatively constant aponeurosis separation observed during in vivo

  8. How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model output: four-stage model case-study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    ) different levels of network congestion. The choice of the probability distributions shows a low impact on the model output uncertainty, quantified in terms of coefficient of variation. Instead, with respect to the choice of different assignment algorithms, the link flow uncertainty, expressed in terms...... of coefficient of variation, resulting from stochastic user equilibrium and user equilibrium is, respectively, of 0.425 and 0.468. Finally, network congestion does not show a high effect on model output uncertainty at the network level. However, the final uncertainty of links with higher volume/capacity ratio...

  9. Comparing Simulation Output Accuracy of Discrete Event and Agent Based Models: A Quantitive Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Majid, Mazlina Abdul; Siebers, Peer-Olaf

    2010-01-01

    In our research we investigate the output accuracy of discrete event simulation models and agent based simulation models when studying human centric complex systems. In this paper we focus on human reactive behaviour as it is possible in both modelling approaches to implement human reactive behaviour in the model by using standard methods. As a case study we have chosen the retail sector, and here in particular the operations of the fitting room in the women wear department of a large UK department store. In our case study we looked at ways of determining the efficiency of implementing new management policies for the fitting room operation through modelling the reactive behaviour of staff and customers of the department. First, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our models to the performance of the real system. This experiment also allowed us to establish differences in output accuracy between the two modelling methids. In a second step a multi-scenario experimen...

  10. A MULTIYEAR LAGS INPUT-HOLDING-OUTPUT MODEL ON EDUCATION WITH EXCLUDING IDLE CAPITAL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xue FU; Xikang CHEN

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops a multi-year lag Input-Holding-Output (I-H-O) Model on education with exclusion of the idle capital to address the reasonable education structure in support of a sus-tainable development strategy in China. First, the model considers the multiyear lag of human capital because the lag time of human capital is even longer and more important than that of fixed capital. Second, it considers the idle capital resulting from the output decline in education, for example, stu-dent decrease in primary school. The new generalized Leonitief dynamic inverse is deduced to obtain a positive solution on education when output declines as well as expands. After compiling the 2000 I-H-O table on education, the authors adopt modifications-by-step method to treat nonlinear coefficients, and calculate education scale, the requirement of human capital, and education expenditure from 2005 to 2020. It is found that structural imbalance of human capital is a serious problem for Chinese economic development.

  11. Modelling health and output at business cycle horizons for the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar

    2010-07-01

    In this paper we employ a theoretical framework - a simple macro model augmented with health - that draws guidance from the Keynesian view of business cycles to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in health expenditure and output at business cycle horizons for the USA. The variance decomposition analysis of shocks reveals that at business cycle horizons permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in output, while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in health expenditures. We undertake a shock decomposition analysis for private health expenditures versus public health expenditures and interestingly find that while transitory shocks are more important for private sector expenditures, permanent shocks dominate public health expenditures. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Application of the Multitype Strauss Point Model for Characterizing the Spatial Distribution of Landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iswar Das

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are common but complex natural hazards. They occur on the Earth’s surface following a mass movement process. This study applies the multitype Strauss point process model to analyze the spatial distributions of small and large landslides along with geoenvironmental covariates. It addresses landslides as a set of irregularly distributed point-type locations within a spatial region. Their intensity and spatial interactions are analyzed by means of the distance correlation functions, model fitting, and simulation. We use as a dataset the landslide occurrences for 28 years from a landslide prone road corridor in the Indian Himalayas. The landslides are investigated for their spatial character, that is, whether they show inhibition or occur as a regular or a clustered point pattern, and for their interaction with landslides in the neighbourhood. Results show that the covariates lithology, land cover, road buffer, drainage density, and terrain units significantly improved model fitting. A comparison of the output made with logistic regression model output showed a superior prediction performance for the multitype Strauss model. We compared results of this model with the multitype/hard core Strauss point process model that further improved the modeling. Results from the study can be used to generate landslide susceptibility scenarios. The paper concludes that a multitype Strauss point process model enriches the set of statistical tools that can comprehensively analyze landslide data.

  13. Detecting Weather Radar Clutter by Information Fusion With Satellite Images and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2006-01-01

    A method for detecting clutter in weather radar images by information fusion is presented. Radar data, satellite images, and output from a numerical weather prediction model are combined and the radar echoes are classified using supervised classification. The presented method uses indirect...... information on precipitation in the atmosphere from Meteosat-8 multispectral images and near-surface temperature estimates from the DMI-HIRLAM-S05 numerical weather prediction model. Alternatively, an operational nowcasting product called 'Precipitating Clouds' based on Meteosat-8 input is used. A scale...

  14. A non-endoreversible Otto cycle model: improving power output and efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angulo-Brown, F. [Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Mexico City (Mexico). Escuela Superior de Fisica y Matematicas; Rocha-Martinez, J.A.; Navarrete-Gonzalez, T.D. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Azcapotzalco, Mexico City (Mexico). Dept. de Ciencias Basicas

    1996-01-14

    We propose a finite-time thermodynamics model for an Otto thermal cycle. Our model considers global losses in a simplified way lumped into a friction-like term, and takes into account the departure from an endoreversible regime through a parameter (R) arising from the Clausius inequality. Our numerical results suggest that the cycle`s power output and efficiency are very sensitive to that parameter. We find that R is the ratio of the constant-volume heat capacities of the reactants and products in the combustion reaction occurring inside the working fluid. Our results have implications in the search for new fuels for internal combustion engines. (author)

  15. Was Thebes Necessary? Contingency in Spatial Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Evans, Tim S

    2016-01-01

    When data is poor we resort to theory modelling. This is a two-step process. We have first to identify the appropriate type of model for the system under consideration and then to tailor it to the specifics of the case. To understand settlement formation, which is the concern of this paper, this not only involves choosing input parameter values such as site separations but also input functions which characterises the ease of travel between sites. Although the generic behaviour of the model is understood, the details are not. Different choices will necessarily lead to different outputs (for identical inputs). We can only proceed if choices that are "close" give outcomes are similar. Where there are local differences it suggests that there was no compelling reason for one outcome rather than the other. If these differences are important for the historic record we may interpret this as sensitivity to contingency. We re-examine the rise of Greek city states as first formulated by Rihll and Wilson in 1979, initial...

  16. Archive Access to the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Suite of Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutledge, G. K.; Schuster, D.; Worley, S.; Stepaniak, D.; Toth, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Bougeault, P.; Anthony, S.

    2008-05-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Programme (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), is a key component of the World Weather Research Programme intended to accelerate improvements in 1-day to 2-week weather forecasts. Centralized archives of ensemble model forecast data, from many international centers, are being used to enable extensive data sharing and research during Phase I of the project. The designated TIGGE archive centers include the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA), The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Scientific data requirements and archive planning solidified in late 2005, and archive collection was initiated in October 2006 with receipt of partial sets of parameters from multiple data providers. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1-2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near-real-time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at CMA, ECMWF and NCAR. The objective of TIGGE (GEO task WE-06-03) is to establish closer cooperation between the academic and operational community by encouraging use of operational products for research, and to explore actively the concept and benefits of multi- model probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on severe weather prediction. The future operational use of the TIGGE infrastructure as part of a "Global Interactive Forecasting System" will be considered, subject to positive results from research undertaken with the TIGGE data archives. The Unidata Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system is the primary mode used to transport ensemble model data from the data providers to the archive centers. ECMWF acts as one initial collection point to collect model output from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Meteo

  17. Use of weather research and forecasting model outputs to obtain near-surface refractive index structure constant over the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Chun; Wu, Xiaoqing; Li, Xuebin; Zhu, Wenyue; Qiao, Chunhong; Rao, Ruizhong; Mei, Haipin

    2016-06-13

    The methods to obtain atmospheric refractive index structure constant (Cn2) by instrument measurement are limited spatially and temporally and they are more difficult and expensive over the ocean. It is useful to forecast Cn2 effectively from Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) outputs. This paper introduces a method that WRF Model is used to forecast the routine meteorological parameters firstly, and then Cn2 is calculated based on these parameters by the Bulk model from the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) over the ocean near-surface. The corresponding Cn2 values measured by the micro-thermometer which is placed on the ship are compared with the ones forecasted by WRF model to determine how this method performs. The result shows that the forecasted Cn2 is consistent with the measured Cn2 in trend and the order of magnitude as a whole, as well as the correlation coefficient is up to 77.57%. This method can forecast some essential aspects of Cn2 and almost always captures the correct magnitude of Cn2, which experiences fluctuations of two orders of magnitude. Thus, it seems to be a feasible and meaningful method that using WRF model to forecast near-surface Cn2 value over the ocean.

  18. Quasi-homogeneous partial coherent source modeling of multimode optical fiber output using the elementary source method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathy, Alaa; Sabry, Yasser M.; Khalil, Diaa A.

    2017-10-01

    Multimode fibers (MMF) have many applications in illumination, spectroscopy, sensing and even in optical communication systems. In this work, we present a model for the MMF output field assuming the fiber end as a quasi-homogenous source. The fiber end is modeled by a group of partially coherent elementary sources, spatially shifted and uncorrelated with each other. The elementary source distribution is derived from the far field intensity measurement, while the weighting function of the sources is derived from the fiber end intensity measurement. The model is compared with practical measurements for fibers with different core/cladding diameters at different propagation distances and for different input excitations: laser, white light and LED. The obtained results show normalized root mean square error less than 8% in the intensity profile in most cases, even when the fiber end surface is not perfectly cleaved. Also, the comparison with the Gaussian–Schell model results shows a better agreement with the measurement. In addition, the complex degree of coherence, derived from the model results, is compared with the theoretical predictions of the modified Van Zernike equation showing very good agreement, which strongly supports the assumption that the large core MMF could be considered as a quasi-homogenous source.

  19. Panel data models extended to spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    2001-01-01

    This paper surveys panel data models extended to spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable. In particular, it focuses on the specification and estimation of four panel data models commonly used in applied research: the fixed effects model, the random effects model, the

  20. Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

    2012-01-01

    The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve...

  1. Spatial Stochastic Point Models for Reservoir Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syversveen, Anne Randi

    1997-12-31

    The main part of this thesis discusses stochastic modelling of geology in petroleum reservoirs. A marked point model is defined for objects against a background in a two-dimensional vertical cross section of the reservoir. The model handles conditioning on observations from more than one well for each object and contains interaction between objects, and the objects have the correct length distribution when penetrated by wells. The model is developed in a Bayesian setting. The model and the simulation algorithm are demonstrated by means of an example with simulated data. The thesis also deals with object recognition in image analysis, in a Bayesian framework, and with a special type of spatial Cox processes called log-Gaussian Cox processes. In these processes, the logarithm of the intensity function is a Gaussian process. The class of log-Gaussian Cox processes provides flexible models for clustering. The distribution of such a process is completely characterized by the intensity and the pair correlation function of the Cox process. 170 refs., 37 figs., 5 tabs.

  2. Theoretical aspects of spatial-temporal modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Matsui, Tomoko

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a modern introductory tutorial on specialized theoretical aspects of spatial and temporal modeling. The areas covered involve a range of topics which reflect the diversity of this domain of research across a number of quantitative disciplines. For instance, the first chapter provides up-to-date coverage of particle association measures that underpin the theoretical properties of recently developed random set methods in space and time otherwise known as the class of probability hypothesis density framework (PHD filters). The second chapter gives an overview of recent advances in Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian filtering in high-dimensional spaces. In particular, the chapter explains how one may extend classical sequential Monte Carlo methods for filtering and static inference problems to high dimensions and big-data applications. The third chapter presents an overview of generalized families of processes that extend the class of Gaussian process models to heavy-tailed families known as alph...

  3. A model and variance reduction method for computing statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal-Codina, F.; Nguyen, N. C.; Giles, M. B.; Peraire, J.

    2015-09-01

    We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basis approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

  4. Input-output modeling for urban energy consumption in Beijing: dynamics and comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lixiao; Hu, Qiuhong; Zhang, Fan

    2014-01-01

    Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect) energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making.

  5. A model and variance reduction method for computing statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidal-Codina, F., E-mail: fvidal@mit.edu [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Nguyen, N.C., E-mail: cuongng@mit.edu [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Giles, M.B., E-mail: mike.giles@maths.ox.ac.uk [Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (United Kingdom); Peraire, J., E-mail: peraire@mit.edu [Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2015-09-15

    We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basis approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

  6. Input-output modeling for urban energy consumption in Beijing: dynamics and comparison.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixiao Zhang

    Full Text Available Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making.

  7. Review and Extension of Suitability Assessment Indicators of Weather Model Output for Analyzing Decentralized Energy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Schermeyer

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.

  8. Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by the internal atmospheric variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gelfan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available An approach is proposed to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty originating from internal atmospheric variability. The latter is one of three major factors contributing to the uncertainty of simulated climate change projections (along with so-called "forcing" and "climate model" uncertainties. Importantly, the role of the internal atmospheric variability is the most visible over the spatial–temporal scales of water management in large river basins. The internal atmospheric variability is represented by large ensemble simulations (45 members with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model. The ensemble simulations are performed using identical prescribed lower boundary conditions (observed sea surface temperature, SST, and sea ice concentration, SIC, for 1979–2012 and constant external forcing parameters but different initial conditions of the atmosphere. The ensemble of the bias-corrected ECHAM5-outputs as well as ensemble averaged ECHAM5-output are used as the distributed input for ECOMAG and SWAP hydrological models. The corresponding ensembles of runoff hydrographs are calculated for two large rivers of the Arctic basin: the Lena and the Northern Dvina rivers. A number of runoff statistics including the mean and the SD of the annual, monthly and daily runoff, as well as the annual runoff trend are assessed. The uncertainties of runoff statistics caused by the internal atmospheric variability are estimated. It is found that the uncertainty of the mean and SD of the runoff has a distinguished seasonal dependence with maximum during the periods of spring-summer snowmelt and summer-autumn rainfall floods. A noticeable non-linearity of the hydrological models' response to the ensemble ECHAM5 output is found most strongly expressed for the Northern Dvine River basin. It is shown that the averaging over ensemble members effectively filters stochastic term related to internal atmospheric variability. The simulated trends are close to

  9. Modeling and Output Feedback Control of Networked Control Systems with Both Time Delays; and Packet Dropouts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Qiu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the problem of modeling and output feedback controller design for a class of discrete-time networked control systems (NCSs with time delays and packet dropouts. A Markovian jumping method is proposed to deal with random time delays and packet dropouts. Different from the previous studies on the issue, the characteristics of networked communication delays and packet dropouts can be truly reflected by the unified model; namely, both sensor-to-controller (S-C and controller-to-actuator (C-A time delays, and packet dropouts are modeled and their history behavior is described by multiple Markov chains. The resulting closed-loop system is described by a new Markovian jump linear system (MJLS with Markov delays model. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI method, sufficient conditions of the stochastic stability and output feedback controller design method for NCSs with random time delays and packet dropouts are presented. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  10. Comparison of Firn-Model Outputs for Steady-State Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, M.; Waddington, E. D.; Stevens, C.; Vo, H.

    2014-12-01

    With few direct measurements of firn density profiles, pore close-off depth and delta age modeling can further aid the study of polar firn. Model estimates of firn properties can help in planning field campaigns and collecting ice cores. No universally accepted firn-evolution model exists, and modeled firn density profiles can be sensitive to the form of the density equation that is used. We can characterize the subtle differences between firn-evolution models by creating comparisons among a suite of published models. We created a table of temperatures and accumulation-rate values spanning the range of climatic conditions in the dry-snow zone in Greenland and Antarctica. Then, we ran each of seven firn-compaction models for each pair of climate values in the table, producing values of close-off depth, depth-integrated porosity, and delta age for each model. Using gridded temperature and accumulation-rate data from Greenland and Antarctica, we interpolated each gridded pair in our model-output tables to create maps of DIP, COD, and Δage for Greenland and Antarctica for each model. We also computed the mean and variance among the models for each property. By identifying the areas of greatest variance in our parameter space, we can better quantify our confidence in the physical descriptions of firn densification in the models.

  11. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  12. Interpolation-based reduced-order models to predict transient thermal output for enhanced geothermal systems

    CERN Document Server

    Mudunuru, M K; Harp, D R; Guthrie, G D; Viswanathan, H S

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to assess the utility of Reduced-Order Models (ROMs) developed from 3D physics-based models for predicting transient thermal power output for an enhanced geothermal reservoir while explicitly accounting for uncertainties in the subsurface system and site-specific details. Numerical simulations are performed based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) of model inputs drawn from uniform probability distributions. Key sensitive parameters are identified from these simulations, which are fracture zone permeability, well/skin factor, bottom hole pressure, and injection flow rate. The inputs for ROMs are based on these key sensitive parameters. The ROMs are then used to evaluate the influence of subsurface attributes on thermal power production curves. The resulting ROMs are compared with field-data and the detailed physics-based numerical simulations. We propose three different ROMs with different levels of model parsimony, each describing key and essential features of the power production cu...

  13. Combination of spatial diversity and parallel decision feedback equalizer in a Single Input Multiple Output underwater acoustic communication system operating at very high frequencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoro Kaskarovska, Violeta; Beaujean, Pierre-Philippe

    2013-05-01

    Single Input Multiple Output (SIMO) acoustic communication system using an adaptive spatial diversity combined with parallel Decision Feedback Equalizer (DFE) is presented in this document. The SIMO system operates at high frequencies with high data rate over a limited range (less than 200 m) in very shallow waters. The SIMO system consists of a single source transmitting Phase Shift Keying (PSK) messages modulated at 300 kHz and received by multiple receivers. In a first configuration, the symbols collected at each receiver are equalized using a decision feedback equalizer and combined using Maximum Ratio Combining (MRC). In a second configuration, the MRC outputs are used as decision symbols in the DFE. This second configuration is a form of turbo equalization: the process can be repeated over and over, leading to a better estimate of the received message as the number of iterations increases. The adaptive process of diversity is repeated until the best possible result is achieved or a predefined error criterion is met. Bit Error Rate (BER) and Signal-to-Noise-and-Interference Ratio (SNIR) are used as performance metrics of the acoustic channel. Experimental results using SIMO system with three, four or five receivers and pre-processed real recorded data demonstrate ability to improve the performance of the acoustic channel in challenging environments. Using received messages with non-zero BER, adaptive spatial diversity can achieve BER of 0% and increased SNIR of 3 dB with number of iterations depending on the number of receivers used.

  14. Bivariate ensemble model output statistics approach for joint forecasting of wind speed and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Sándor; Möller, Annette

    2017-02-01

    Forecast ensembles are typically employed to account for prediction uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models. However, ensembles often exhibit biases and dispersion errors, thus they require statistical post-processing to improve their predictive performance. Two popular univariate post-processing models are the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). In the last few years, increased interest has emerged in developing multivariate post-processing models, incorporating dependencies between weather quantities, such as for example a bivariate distribution for wind vectors or even a more general setting allowing to combine any types of weather variables. In line with a recently proposed approach to model temperature and wind speed jointly by a bivariate BMA model, this paper introduces an EMOS model for these weather quantities based on a bivariate truncated normal distribution. The bivariate EMOS model is applied to temperature and wind speed forecasts of the 8-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble and the 11-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and its predictive performance is compared to the performance of the bivariate BMA model and a multivariate Gaussian copula approach, post-processing the margins with univariate EMOS. While the predictive skills of the compared methods are similar, the bivariate EMOS model requires considerably lower computation times than the bivariate BMA method.

  15. A physically based analytical spatial air temperature and humidity model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2013-01-01

    Spatial variation of urban surface air temperature and humidity influences human thermal comfort, the settling rate of atmospheric pollutants, and plant physiology and growth. Given the lack of observations, we developed a Physically based Analytical Spatial Air Temperature and Humidity (PASATH) model. The PASATH model calculates spatial solar radiation and heat...

  16. IMPACT OF SPATIAL FILTER ON LAND-USE CHANGES MODELLING USING URBAN CELLULAR AUTOMATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Omidipoor

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Urban cellular automata is used vastly in simulating of urban evolutions and dynamics. Finding an appropriate neighbourhood size in urban cellular automata modelling is important because the outputs are strongly influenced by input parameters. This paper investigates the impact of spatial filters on behaviour and outcome of urban cellular automata models. In this study different spatial filters in various sizes including 3*3, 5*5, 7*7, 9*9, 11*11, 13*13, 15*15 and 17*17 cells are used in a scenario of land-use changes. The proposed method is examined changes in size and shape of spatial filter whereas the resolution was kept fixed. The implementation results in Ahvaz city demonstrated that KAPPA index is changed in different shapes and types at the time when different spatial filters are used. However, circular shape with size of 5*5 offers better accuracy.

  17. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, Robert L.

    2013-04-01

    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

  18. Fuzzy portfolio model with fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsaur, Ruey-Chyn

    2015-02-01

    In the finance market, a short-term investment strategy is usually applied in portfolio selection in order to reduce investment risk; however, the economy is uncertain and the investment period is short. Further, an investor has incomplete information for selecting a portfolio with crisp proportions for each chosen security. In this paper we present a new method of constructing fuzzy portfolio model for the parameters of fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions, based on possibilistic mean-standard deviation models. Furthermore, we consider both excess or shortage of investment in different economic periods by using fuzzy constraint for the sum of the fuzzy proportions, and we also refer to risks of securities investment and vagueness of incomplete information during the period of depression economics for the portfolio selection. Finally, we present a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem to illustrate the proposed model and a sensitivity analysis is realised based on the results.

  19. Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

    2010-12-01

    Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

  20. ARX model-based damage sensitive features for structural damage localization using output-only measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Koushik; Bhattacharya, Bishakh; Ray-Chaudhuri, Samit

    2015-08-01

    The study proposes a set of four ARX model (autoregressive model with exogenous input) based damage sensitive features (DSFs) for structural damage detection and localization using the dynamic responses of structures, where the information regarding the input excitation may not be available. In the proposed framework, one of the output responses of a multi-degree-of-freedom system is assumed as the input and the rest are considered as the output. The features are based on ARX model coefficients, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test statistical distance, and the model residual error. At first, a mathematical formulation is provided to establish the relation between the change in ARX model coefficients and the normalized stiffness of a structure. KS test parameters are then described to show the sensitivity of statistical distance of ARX model residual error with the damage location. The efficiency of the proposed set of DSFs is evaluated by conducting numerical studies involving a shear building and a steel moment-resisting frame. To simulate the damage scenarios in these structures, stiffness degradation of different elements is considered. It is observed from this study that the proposed set of DSFs is good indicator for damage location even in the presence of damping, multiple damages, noise, and parametric uncertainties. The performance of these DSFs is compared with mode shape curvature-based approach for damage localization. An experimental study has also been conducted on a three-dimensional six-storey steel moment frame to understand the performance of these DSFs under real measurement conditions. It has been observed that the proposed set of DSFs can satisfactorily localize damage in the structure.

  1. A model output statistics system to forecast the 2 metre temperature at the "Wettermast Hamburg" site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finn, Tobias Sebastian; Ament, Felix

    2016-04-01

    The model output statistics (MOS) method is frequently used to downscale and improve numerical weather models for specific measurement sites. One of these is the "Wettermast Hamburg" (http://wettermast-hamburg.zmaw.de/) in the south-east of Hamburg. It is operated by the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg. The MOS approach was used to develop a not yet existing 2 metre temperature forecasting system for this site. The forecast system is based on the 0 UTC control run of the legacy "global ensemble forecast system". The multiple linear equations were calculated using a training period of 2 years (01.03.2012-28.02.2014), while the developed models were evaluated using the following year (01.03.2014-28.02.2015). During the development process it was found that a combination of forward and backward selection together with the "Bayesian information criterion", a warm-cold splitting and a five-fold cross-validation was the best automated method to minimize the risk of overfitting. To further reduce the risk, the number of predictors were limited to 6. Also the first 3 possible predictors were selected by hand. In comparison to the fully automated method, the error was not changed significantly through this restrictions for the evaluation period. The analysis of the importance of selected predictors shows that the global weather model has problems characterizing specific weather phenomena. Large model errors by misrepresenting the boundary layer were highlighted through the 10 metre wind speed, the surface temperature and the 1000 hPa temperature as frequently selected predictors. The final forecast system has a root-mean-square error minimum of 1.15 K for the initialization and a maximum 2.2 K at the 84 hour lead time. Compared to the direct model output this is a mean improvement of ˜ 22%. The main error reduction is achieved in the first 24 hours of the forecast, especially at the initialization (up to 45% error reduction).

  2. A Model of Colonic Crypts using SBML Spatial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Maj

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The Spatial Processes package enables an explicit definition of a spatial environment on top of the normal dynamic modeling SBML capabilities. The possibility of an explicit representation of spatial dynamics increases the representation power of SBML. In this work we used those new SBML features to define an extensive model of colonic crypts composed of the main cellular types (from stem cells to fully differentiated cells, alongside their spatial dynamics.

  3. Manifold learning for the emulation of spatial fields from computational models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, W. W.; Triantafyllidis, V.; Shah, A. A.; Nair, P. B.; Zabaras, N.

    2016-12-01

    Repeated evaluations of expensive computer models in applications such as design optimization and uncertainty quantification can be computationally infeasible. For partial differential equation (PDE) models, the outputs of interest are often spatial fields leading to high-dimensional output spaces. Although emulators can be used to find faithful and computationally inexpensive approximations of computer models, there are few methods for handling high-dimensional output spaces. For Gaussian process (GP) emulation, approximations of the correlation structure and/or dimensionality reduction are necessary. Linear dimensionality reduction will fail when the output space is not well approximated by a linear subspace of the ambient space in which it lies. Manifold learning can overcome the limitations of linear methods if an accurate inverse map is available. In this paper, we use kernel PCA and diffusion maps to construct GP emulators for very high-dimensional output spaces arising from PDE model simulations. For diffusion maps we develop a new inverse map approximation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy of our approach.

  4. International trade inoperability input-output model (IT-IIM): theory and application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jeesang; Santos, Joost R; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2009-01-01

    The inoperability input-output model (IIM) has been used for analyzing disruptions due to man-made or natural disasters that can adversely affect the operation of economic systems or critical infrastructures. Taking economic perturbation for each sector as inputs, the IIM provides the degree of economic production impacts on all industry sectors as the outputs for the model. The current version of the IIM does not provide a separate analysis for the international trade component of the inoperability. If an important port of entry (e.g., Port of Los Angeles) is disrupted, then international trade inoperability becomes a highly relevant subject for analysis. To complement the current IIM, this article develops the International Trade-IIM (IT-IIM). The IT-IIM investigates the resulting international trade inoperability for all industry sectors resulting from disruptions to a major port of entry. Similar to traditional IIM analysis, the inoperability metrics that the IT-IIM provides can be used to prioritize economic sectors based on the losses they could potentially incur. The IT-IIM is used to analyze two types of direct perturbations: (1) the reduced capacity of ports of entry, including harbors and airports (e.g., a shutdown of any port of entry); and (2) restrictions on commercial goods that foreign countries trade with the base nation (e.g., embargo).

  5. Input-to-output transformation in a model of the rat hippocampal CA1 network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olypher, Andrey V; Lytton, William W; Prinz, Astrid A

    2012-01-01

    Here we use computational modeling to gain new insights into the transformation of inputs in hippocampal field CA1. We considered input-output transformation in CA1 principal cells of the rat hippocampus, with activity synchronized by population gamma oscillations. Prior experiments have shown that such synchronization is especially strong for cells within one millimeter of each other. We therefore simulated a one-millimeter ıt patch of CA1 with 23,500 principal cells. We used morphologically and biophysically detailed neuronal models, each with more than 1000 compartments and thousands of synaptic inputs. Inputs came from binary patterns of spiking neurons from field CA3 and entorhinal cortex (EC). On average, each presynaptic pattern initiated action potentials in the same number of CA1 principal cells in the patch. We considered pairs of similar and pairs of distinct patterns. In all the cases CA1 strongly separated input patterns. However, CA1 cells were considerably more sensitive to small alterations in EC patterns compared to CA3 patterns. Our results can be used for comparison of input-to-output transformations in normal and pathological hippocampal networks.

  6. Multiregional input-output model for the evaluation of Spanish water flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazcarro, Ignacio; Duarte, Rosa; Sánchez Chóliz, Julio

    2013-01-01

    We construct a multiregional input-output model for Spain, in order to evaluate the pressures on the water resources, virtual water flows, and water footprints of the regions, and the water impact of trade relationships within Spain and abroad. The study is framed with those interregional input-output models constructed to study water flows and impacts of regions in China, Australia, Mexico, or the UK. To build our database, we reconcile regional IO tables, national and regional accountancy of Spain, trade and water data. Results show an important imbalance between origin of water resources and final destination, with significant water pressures in the South, Mediterranean, and some central regions. The most populated and dynamic regions of Madrid and Barcelona are important drivers of water consumption in Spain. Main virtual water exporters are the South and Central agrarian regions: Andalusia, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon, Aragon, and Extremadura, while the main virtual water importers are the industrialized regions of Madrid, Basque country, and the Mediterranean coast. The paper shows the different location of direct and indirect consumers of water in Spain and how the economic trade and consumption pattern of certain areas has significant impacts on the availability of water resources in other different and often drier regions.

  7. A Water-Withdrawal Input-Output Model of the Indian Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogra, Shelly; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Mathur, Ritu

    2016-02-02

    Managing freshwater allocation for a highly populated and growing economy like India can benefit from knowledge about the effect of economic activities. This study transforms the 2003-2004 economic input-output (IO) table of India into a water withdrawal input-output model to quantify direct and indirect flows. This unique model is based on a comprehensive database compiled from diverse public sources, and estimates direct and indirect water withdrawal of all economic sectors. It distinguishes between green (rainfall), blue (surface and ground), and scarce groundwater. Results indicate that the total direct water withdrawal is nearly 3052 billion cubic meter (BCM) and 96% of this is used in agriculture sectors with the contribution of direct green water being about 1145 BCM, excluding forestry. Apart from 727 BCM direct blue water withdrawal for agricultural, other significant users include "Electricity" with 64 BCM, "Water supply" with 44 BCM and other industrial sectors with nearly 14 BCM. "Construction", "miscellaneous food products"; "Hotels and restaurants"; "Paper, paper products, and newsprint" are other significant indirect withdrawers. The net virtual water import is found to be insignificant compared to direct water used in agriculture nationally, while scarce ground water associated with crops is largely contributed by northern states.

  8. The temporal and spatial evaluation on China's agricultural policy output since 1978%改革开放以来中国农业政策效果的时空计量分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    余建辉; 张文忠; 王岱

    2011-01-01

    Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China's implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China's new agricultural policy. The results show that China's agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD's basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which ara the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.

  9. Devaluation and Output Growth in Palestine: Evidence from a CGE model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakeem Abdel Ahmad Eltalla

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Whether exchange rate devaluation supports economic growth or not is an open question empirically. This paper analyzes the impacts of the devaluation on the Palestinian economy using a computable general equilibrium model. We investigate the effect of a 15% devaluation of the exchange rate on output growth of Palestine. By using latest data (a 2012 social accounting matrix for Palestine and CGE modeling, this paper finds that devaluation is contractionary in Palestine. A 15% devaluation of the exchange rate results on lower real gross domestic product, the simulation results show that GDP will decrease by 1.99 %. Import and export will decline by 20.61% and 52.67% respectably. Also, a 15 percent devaluation will reduce the level of private consumption by 6.31 % and inflation (CPI will increase by 4.7 from the base line.

  10. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2007-03 (NODC Accession 0089833)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  11. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2007-02 (NODC Accession 0089832)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  12. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2009-04 (NODC Accession 0089858)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  13. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2015-06 (NCEI Accession 0130740)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  14. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2012-02 (NODC Accession 0089892)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  15. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2010-03 (NODC Accession 0089869)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  16. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2014-09 (NODC Accession 0125935)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  17. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2010-12 (NODC Accession 0089878)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  18. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2013-10 (NODC Accession 0115066)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  19. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts for 2006-05 (NODC Accession 0089823)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  20. Mathematical Modeling of spatial disease variables by Spatial Fuzzy Logic for Spatial Decision Support Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platz, M.; Rapp, J.; Groessler, M.; Niehaus, E.; Babu, A.; Soman, B.

    2014-11-01

    A Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) provides support for decision makers and should not be viewed as replacing human intelligence with machines. Therefore it is reasonable that decision makers are able to use a feature to analyze the provided spatial decision support in detail to crosscheck the digital support of the SDSS with their own expertise. Spatial decision support is based on risk and resource maps in a Geographic Information System (GIS) with relevant layers e.g. environmental, health and socio-economic data. Spatial fuzzy logic allows the representation of spatial properties with a value of truth in the range between 0 and 1. Decision makers can refer to the visualization of the spatial truth of single risk variables of a disease. Spatial fuzzy logic rules that support the allocation of limited resources according to risk can be evaluated with measure theory on topological spaces, which allows to visualize the applicability of this rules as well in a map. Our paper is based on the concept of a spatial fuzzy logic on topological spaces that contributes to the development of an adaptive Early Warning And Response System (EWARS) providing decision support for the current or future spatial distribution of a disease. It supports the decision maker in testing interventions based on available resources and apply risk mitigation strategies and provide guidance tailored to the geo-location of the user via mobile devices. The software component of the system would be based on open source software and the software developed during this project will also be in the open source domain, so that an open community can build on the results and tailor further work to regional or international requirements and constraints. A freely available EWARS Spatial Fuzzy Logic Demo was developed wich enables a user to visualize risk and resource maps based on individual data in several data formats.

  1. Technical note: Simultaneous fully dynamic characterization of multiple input–output relationships in climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

    2017-01-01

    We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input–output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state. We use this technique to determine the steady-state responses of low cloud fraction and latent heat flux to heating perturbations over 22 regions spanning Earth's oceans. We show that the response characteristics are similar to those of step-change simulations, but in this new method the responses for 22 regions can be characterized simultaneously. Furthermore, we can estimate the timescale over which the steady-state response emerges. The proposed methodology could be useful for a wide variety of purposes in climate science, including characterization of teleconnections and uncertainty quantification to identify the effects of climate model tuning parameters.

  2. Spatial Econometric data analysis: moving beyond traditional models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Florax, R.J.G.M.; Vlist, van der A.J.

    2003-01-01

    This article appraises recent advances in the spatial econometric literature. It serves as the introduction too collection of new papers on spatial econometric data analysis brought together in this special issue, dealing specifically with new extensions to the spatial econometric modeling perspecti

  3. Modelling of the kinetics and parametric behaviour of a copper vapour laser: Output power limitation issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carman, R.J. [Centre for Lasers and Applications, Macquarie University, North Ryde, Sydney, New South Wales 2109 (Australia)

    1997-07-01

    A self-consistent computer model was used to simulate the plasma kinetics (radially resolved) and parametric behaviour of an 18 mm bore (6 W) copper vapour laser for a wide range of optimum and non-optimum operating conditions. Good quantitative agreement was obtained between modelled results and experimental data including the temporal evolution of the 4p{sup 2}P{sub 3/2}, 4s{sup 2} {sup 2}D{sub 5/2} and 4s{sup 2}{sup 2}D{sub 3/2} Cu laser level populations derived from hook method measurements. The modelled results show that the two most important parameters that affect laser behaviour are the ground state copper density and the peak electron temperature T{sub e}. For a given pulse repetition frequency (prf), maximum laser power is achieved by matching the copper atom density to the input pulse energy thereby maintaining the peak T{sub e} at around 3 eV. However, there is a threshold wall temperature (and copper density) above which the plasma tube becomes thermally unstable. At low prf ({lt}8 kHz), this thermal instability limits the attainable copper density (and consequently the laser output power) to values below the optimum for matching to the input pulse energy. For higher prf values ({gt}8 kHz), the copper density can be matched to the input pulse energy to give maximum laser power because the corresponding wall temperature then falls below the threshold temperature for thermal instability. For prf {gt}14 kHz, the laser output becomes highly annular across the tube diameter due to a severe depletion of the copper atom density on axis caused by radial ion pumping. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  4. Design of eight-mode polarization-maintaining few-mode fiber for multiple-input multiple-output-free spatial division multiplexing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lixian; LaRochelle, Sophie

    2015-12-15

    We propose a polarization-maintaining few-mode fiber (FMF) that features an elliptical ring shaped core with a high refractive index contrast ∼0.03 between the core and the cladding. This fiber design alleviates the usual trade-off between the number of guided modes and the achievable birefringence that is usually observed in conventional elliptical-core FMFs. Through numerical simulations, we show that this fiber design can support up to 10 guided vector modes over the entire C band while providing large birefringence. Except for the two fundamental modes, the eight higher-order vector modes are all separated from their adjacent modes by effective index differences >10⁻⁴, which is the typical birefringence value of single-mode polarization maintaining fibers. The designed fiber targets applications in spatial division multiplexing of optical channels, without multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) digital signal processing, for short-reach optical interconnects.

  5. Puget Sound ocean acidification model outputs - Modeling the impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems and populations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...

  6. Spatially explicit fate modelling of nanomaterials in natural waters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quik, J.T.K.; Klein, de J.J.M.; Koelmans, A.A.

    2015-01-01

    Site specific exposure assessments for engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) require spatially explicit fate models, which however are not yet available. Here we present an ENP fate model (NanoDUFLOW) that links ENP specific process descriptions to a spatially explicit hydrological model. The link enables

  7. Mining multilevel spatial association rules with cloud models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Bin; ZHU Zhong-ying

    2005-01-01

    The traditional generalization-based knowledge discovery method is introduced. A new kind of multilevel spatial association of the rules mining method based on the cloud model is presented. The cloud model integrates the vague and random use of linguistic terms in a unified way. With these models, spatial and nonspatial attribute values are well generalized at multiple levels, allowing discovery of strong spatial association rules.Combining the cloud model based method with Apriori algorithms for mining association rules from a spatial database shows benefits in being effective and flexible.

  8. Applying Input-Output Model to Estimate Broader Economic Impact of Transportation Infrastructure Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anas, Ridwan; Tamin, Ofyar; Wibowo, Sony S.

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the relationships between infrastructure improvement and economic growth in the surrounding region. Traditionally, microeconomic and macroeconomic analyses are the mostly used tools for analyzing the linkage between transportation sectors and economic growth but offer little clues to the mechanisms linking transport improvements and the broader economy impacts. This study will estimate the broader economic benefits of the new transportation infrastructure investment, Cipularangtollway in West Java province, Indonesia, to the region connected (Bandung district) using Input-Output model. The result show the decrease of freight transportation costs by at 17 % and the increase of 1.2 % of Bandung District's GDP after the operation of Cipularangtollway.

  9. Applying Input-Output Model to Estimate Broader Economic Impact of Transportation Infrastructure Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anas, Ridwan; Tamin, Ofyar; Wibowo, Sony S.

    2016-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify the relationships between infrastructure improvement and economic growth in the surrounding region. Traditionally, microeconomic and macroeconomic analyses are the mostly used tools for analyzing the linkage between transportation sectors and economic growth but offer little clues to the mechanisms linking transport improvements and the broader economy impacts. This study will estimate the broader economic benefits of the new transportation infrastructure investment, Cipularangtollway in West Java province, Indonesia, to the region connected (Bandung district) using Input-Output model. The result show the decrease of freight transportation costs by at 17 % and the increase of 1.2 % of Bandung District's GDP after the operation of Cipularangtollway.

  10. Generalisation benefits of output gating in a model of prefrontal cortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriete, Trent; Noelle, David C.

    2011-06-01

    The prefrontal cortex (PFC) plays a central role in flexible cognitive control, including the suppression of habitual responding in favour of situation-appropriate behaviours that can be quite novel. PFC provides a kind of working memory, maintaining the rules, goals, and/or actions that are to control behaviour in the current context. For flexible control, these PFC representations must be sufficiently componential to support systematic generalisation to novel situations. The anatomical structure of PFC can be seen as implementing a componential 'slot-filler' structure, with different components encoded over isolated pools of neurons. Previous PFC models have highlighted the importance of a dynamic gating mechanism to selectively update individual 'slot' contents. In this article, we present simulation results that suggest that systematic generalisation also requires an 'output gating' mechanism that limits the influence of PFC on more posterior brain areas to reflect a small number of representational components at any one time.

  11. Statistical Downscaling Output GCM Modeling with Continuum Regression and Pre-Processing PCA Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutikno Sutikno

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the climate models used to predict the climatic conditions is Global Circulation Models (GCM. GCM is a computer-based model that consists of different equations. It uses numerical and deterministic equation which follows the physics rules. GCM is a main tool to predict climate and weather, also it uses as primary information source to review the climate change effect. Statistical Downscaling (SD technique is used to bridge the large-scale GCM with a small scale (the study area. GCM data is spatial and temporal data most likely to occur where the spatial correlation between different data on the grid in a single domain. Multicollinearity problems require the need for pre-processing of variable data X. Continuum Regression (CR and pre-processing with Principal Component Analysis (PCA methods is an alternative to SD modelling. CR is one method which was developed by Stone and Brooks (1990. This method is a generalization from Ordinary Least Square (OLS, Principal Component Regression (PCR and Partial Least Square method (PLS methods, used to overcome multicollinearity problems. Data processing for the station in Ambon, Pontianak, Losarang, Indramayu and Yuntinyuat show that the RMSEP values and R2 predict in the domain 8x8 and 12x12 by uses CR method produces results better than by PCR and PLS.

  12. [Prediction of spatial distribution of forest carbon storage in Heilongjiang Province using spatial error model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chang; Li, Feng-Ri; Zhen, Zhen

    2014-10-01

    Abstract: Based on the data from Chinese National Forest Inventory (CNFI) and Key Ecological Benefit Forest Monitoring plots (5075 in total) in Heilongjiang Province in 2010 and concurrent meteorological data coming from 59 meteorological stations located in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia, this paper established a spatial error model (SEM) by GeoDA using carbon storage as dependent variable and several independent variables, including diameter of living trees (DBH), number of trees per hectare (TPH), elevation (Elev), slope (Slope), and product of precipitation and temperature (Rain_Temp). Global Moran's I was computed for describing overall spatial autocorrelations of model results at different spatial scales. Local Moran's I was calculated at the optimal bandwidth (25 km) to present spatial distribution residuals. Intra-block spatial variances were computed to explain spatial heterogeneity of residuals. Finally, a spatial distribution map of carbon storage in Heilongjiang was visualized based on predictions. The results showed that the distribution of forest carbon storage in Heilongjiang had spatial effect and was significantly influenced by stand, topographic and meteorological factors, especially average DBH. SEM could solve the spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity well. There were significant spatial differences in distribution of forest carbon storage. The carbon storage was mainly distributed in Zhangguangcai Mountain, Xiao Xing'an Mountain and Da Xing'an Mountain where dense, forests existed, rarely distributed in Songnen Plains, while Wanda Mountain had moderate-level carbon storage.

  13. Bivariate spatial analysis of temperature and precipitation from general circulation models and observation proxies

    KAUST Repository

    Philbin, R.

    2015-05-22

    This study validates the near-surface temperature and precipitation output from decadal runs of eight atmospheric ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) against observational proxy data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis temperatures and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data. We model the joint distribution of these two fields with a parsimonious bivariate Matérn spatial covariance model, accounting for the two fields\\' spatial cross-correlation as well as their own smoothnesses. We fit output from each AOGCM (30-year seasonal averages from 1981 to 2010) to a statistical model on each of 21 land regions. Both variance and smoothness values agree for both fields over all latitude bands except southern mid-latitudes. Our results imply that temperature fields have smaller smoothness coefficients than precipitation fields, while both have decreasing smoothness coefficients with increasing latitude. Models predict fields with smaller smoothness coefficients than observational proxy data for the tropics. The estimated spatial cross-correlations of these two fields, however, are quite different for most GCMs in mid-latitudes. Model correlation estimates agree well with those for observational proxy data for Australia, at high northern latitudes across North America, Europe and Asia, as well as across the Sahara, India, and Southeast Asia, but elsewhere, little consistent agreement exists.

  14. An API for Integrating Spatial Context Models with Spatial Reasoning Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Mikkel Baun

    2006-01-01

    The integration of context-aware applications with spatial context models is often done using a common query language. However, algorithms that estimate and reason about spatial context information can benefit from a tighter integration. An object-oriented API makes such integration possible and ...... modeling. The utility of the API is evaluated in several real-world cases from an indoor location system, and spans several types of spatial reasoning algorithms.......The integration of context-aware applications with spatial context models is often done using a common query language. However, algorithms that estimate and reason about spatial context information can benefit from a tighter integration. An object-oriented API makes such integration possible...

  15. Functional-Coefficient Spatial Durbin Models with Nonparametric Spatial Weights: An Application to Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Koroglu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers a functional-coefficient spatial Durbin model with nonparametric spatial weights. Applying the series approximation method, we estimate the unknown functional coefficients and spatial weighting functions via a nonparametric two-stage least squares (or 2SLS estimation method. To further improve estimation accuracy, we also construct a second-step estimator of the unknown functional coefficients by a local linear regression approach. Some Monte Carlo simulation results are reported to assess the finite sample performance of our proposed estimators. We then apply the proposed model to re-examine national economic growth by augmenting the conventional Solow economic growth convergence model with unknown spatial interactive structures of the national economy, as well as country-specific Solow parameters, where the spatial weighting functions and Solow parameters are allowed to be a function of geographical distance and the countries’ openness to trade, respectively.

  16. CM-DataONE: A Framework for collaborative analysis of climate model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hao; Bai, Yuqi; Li, Sha; Dong, Wenhao; Huang, Wenyu; Xu, Shiming; Lin, Yanluan; Wang, Bin

    2015-04-01

    CM-DataONE is a distributed collaborative analysis framework for climate model data which aims to break through the data access barriers of increasing file size and to accelerate research process. As data size involved in project such as the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has reached petabytes, conventional methods for analysis and diagnosis of model outputs have been rather time-consuming and redundant. CM-DataONE is developed for data publishers and researchers from relevant areas. It can enable easy access to distributed data and provide extensible analysis functions based on tools such as NCAR Command Language, NetCDF Operators (NCO) and Climate Data Operators (CDO). CM-DataONE can be easily installed, configured, and maintained. The main web application has two separate parts which communicate with each other through APIs based on HTTP protocol. The analytic server is designed to be installed in each data node while a data portal can be configured anywhere and connect to a nearest node. Functions such as data query, analytic task submission, status monitoring, visualization and product downloading are provided to end users by data portal. Data conform to CMIP5 Model Output Format in each peer node can be scanned by the server and mapped to a global information database. A scheduler included in the server is responsible for task decomposition, distribution and consolidation. Analysis functions are always executed where data locate. Analysis function package included in the server has provided commonly used functions such as EOF analysis, trend analysis and time series. Functions are coupled with data by XML descriptions and can be easily extended. Various types of results can be obtained by users for further studies. This framework has significantly decreased the amount of data to be transmitted and improved efficiency in model intercomparison jobs by supporting online analysis and multi-node collaboration. To end users, data query is

  17. Cavity spatial mode-locking and high controllability of radial output coupling for circular/square plasmonic nano-resonator lasers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Huang, Yingyan; Ho, Seng-Tiong

    2015-02-01

    We proposed and investigated a novel output coupling scheme for a circular and a square plasmonic nano-ring laser based on a T-shaped radial coupler that is easier to realize than a tangential coupler. The amount of coupling efficiency is shown to be highly controllable from a few percent to tens of percents. This is due to the fact that the standing-wave lasing mode pattern will rotate to give the minimal cavity loss at the T-coupler's location, making the amount of output coupling surprisingly low and hence, controllable. For a non-circular cavity, other symmetry-breaking and geometry-induced scattering could result in separate mode-pattern locking. These give a few main ways to control and optimize the coupling efficiency: via widening/narrowing or rotating the T-coupler's waveguide, or, for the case of a non-circular cavity, via shifting the location of the T-coupler. We observed increased unidirectional lasing induced by either rotating the waveguide or shifting it (for non-circular cases). We simulated the coupling using Maxwell's equations based on the multi-level multi-electron FDTD (MLME-FDTD) method to realistically model the lasing and output coupling behaviors of such plasmonic semiconductor lasers.

  18. A sensitivity analysis using different spatial resolution terrain models and flood inundation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, George; Aronica, Giuseppe T.; Loukas, Athanasios; Vasiliades, Lampros

    2014-05-01

    The impact of terrain spatial resolution and accuracy on the hydraulic flood modeling can pervade the water depth and the flood extent accuracy. Another significant factor that can affect the hydraulic flood modeling outputs is the selection of the hydrodynamic models (1D,2D,1D/2D). Human mortality, ravaged infrastructures and other damages can be derived by extreme flash flood events that can be prevailed in lowlands at suburban and urban areas. These incidents make the necessity of a detailed description of the terrain and the use of advanced hydraulic models essential for the accurate spatial distribution of the flooded areas. In this study, a sensitivity analysis undertaken using different spatial resolution of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and several hydraulic modeling approaches (1D, 2D, 1D/2D) including their effect on the results of river flow modeling and mapping of floodplain. Three digital terrain models (DTMs) were generated from the different elevation variation sources: Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) point cloud data, classic land surveying and digitization of elevation contours from 1:5000 scale topographic maps. HEC-RAS and MIKE 11 are the 1-dimensional hydraulic models that are used. MLFP-2D (Aronica et al., 1998) and MIKE 21 are the 2-dimensional hydraulic models. The last case consist of the integration of MIKE 11/MIKE 21 where 1D-MIKE 11 and 2D-MIKE 21 hydraulic models are coupled through the MIKE FLOOD platform. The validation process of water depths and flood extent is achieved through historical flood records. Observed flood inundation areas in terms of simulated maximum water depth and flood extent were used for the validity of each application result. The methodology has been applied in the suburban section of Xerias river at Volos-Greece. Each dataset has been used to create a flood inundation map for different cross-section configurations using different hydraulic models. The comparison of resulting flood inundation maps indicates

  19. Modelling spatial vagueness based on type-2 fuzzy set

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DU Guo-ning; ZHU Zhong-ying

    2006-01-01

    The modelling and formal characterization of spatial vagueness plays an increasingly important role in the implementation of Geographic Information System (GIS). The concepts involved in spatial objects of GIS have been investigated and acknowledged as being vague and ambiguous. Models and methods which describe and handle fuzzy or vague (rather than crisp or determinate) spatial objects, will be more necessary in GIS. This paper proposes a new method for modelling spatial vagueness based on type-2 fuzzy set, which is distinguished from the traditional type-1 fuzzy methods and more suitable for describing and implementing the vague concepts and objects in GIS.

  20. A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.

    2002-01-01

    Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

  1. A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.

    2002-01-01

    Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

  2. Modelling the widespread effects of TOC1 signalling on the plant circadian clock and its outputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhilko, Alexandra; Mas, Paloma; Millar, Andrew J

    2013-03-19

    24-hour biological clocks are intimately connected to the cellular signalling network, which complicates the analysis of clock mechanisms. The transcriptional regulator TOC1 (TIMING OF CAB EXPRESSION 1) is a founding component of the gene circuit in the plant circadian clock. Recent results show that TOC1 suppresses transcription of multiple target genes within the clock circuit, far beyond its previously-described regulation of the morning transcription factors LHY (LATE ELONGATED HYPOCOTYL) and CCA1 (CIRCADIAN CLOCK ASSOCIATED 1). It is unclear how this pervasive effect of TOC1 affects the dynamics of the clock and its outputs. TOC1 also appears to function in a nested feedback loop that includes signalling by the plant hormone Abscisic Acid (ABA), which is upregulated by abiotic stresses, such as drought. ABA treatments both alter TOC1 levels and affect the clock's timing behaviour. Conversely, the clock rhythmically modulates physiological processes induced by ABA, such as the closing of stomata in the leaf epidermis. In order to understand the dynamics of the clock and its outputs under changing environmental conditions, the reciprocal interactions between the clock and other signalling pathways must be integrated. We extended the mathematical model of the plant clock gene circuit by incorporating the repression of multiple clock genes by TOC1, observed experimentally. The revised model more accurately matches the data on the clock's molecular profiles and timing behaviour, explaining the clock's responses in TOC1 over-expression and toc1 mutant plants. A simplified representation of ABA signalling allowed us to investigate the interactions of ABA and circadian pathways. Increased ABA levels lengthen the free-running period of the clock, consistent with the experimental data. Adding stomatal closure to the model, as a key ABA- and clock-regulated downstream process allowed to describe TOC1 effects on the rhythmic gating of stomatal closure. The integrated

  3. Application of model output statistics to the GEM-AQ high resolution air quality forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struzewska, J.; Kaminski, J. W.; Jefimow, M.

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the presented work was to analyse the impact of data stratification on the efficiency of the Model Output Statistics (MOS) methodology as applied to a high-resolution deterministic air quality forecast carried out with the GEM-AQ model. The following parameters forecasted by the GEM-AQ model were selected as predictors for the MOS equation: pollutant concentration, air temperature in the lowest model layer, wind speed in the lowest model layer, temperature inversion and the precipitation rate. A representative 2-year series were used to construct regression functions. Data series were divided into two subsets. Approximately 75% of the data (first 3 weeks of each month) were used to estimate the regression function parameters. Remaining 25% (last week of each month) were used to test the method (control period). The subsequent 12 months were used for method verification (verification period). A linear model fitted the function based on forecasted parameters to the observations. We have assumed four different temperature-based data stratification methods (for each method, separate equations were constructed). For PM10 and PM2.5, SO2 and NO2 the best correction results were obtained with the application of temperature thresholds in the cold season and seasonal distribution combined with temperature thresholds in the warm season. For the PM10, PM2.5 and SO2 the best results were obtained using a combination of two stratification methods separately for cold and warm seasons. For CO, the systematic bias of the forecasted concentrations was partly corrected. For ozone more sophisticated methods of data stratification did not bring a significant improvement.

  4. Wind tunnel measurements of the power output variability and unsteady loading in a micro wind farm model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossuyt, Juliaan; Howland, Michael; Meneveau, Charles; Meyers, Johan

    2015-11-01

    To optimize wind farm layouts for a maximum power output and wind turbine lifetime, mean power output measurements in wind tunnel studies are not sufficient. Instead, detailed temporal information about the power output and unsteady loading from every single wind turbine in the wind farm is needed. A very small porous disc model with a realistic thrust coefficient of 0.75 - 0.85, was designed. The model is instrumented with a strain gage, allowing measurements of the thrust force, incoming velocity and power output with a frequency response up to the natural frequency of the model. This is shown by reproducing the -5/3 spectrum from the incoming flow. Thanks to its small size and compact instrumentation, the model allows wind tunnel studies of large wind turbine arrays with detailed temporal information from every wind turbine. Translating to field conditions with a length-scale ratio of 1:3,000 the frequencies studied from the data reach from 10-4 Hz up to about 6 .10-2 Hz. The model's capabilities are demonstrated with a large wind farm measurement consisting of close to 100 instrumented models. A high correlation is found between the power outputs of stream wise aligned wind turbines, which is in good agreement with results from prior LES simulations. Work supported by ERC (ActiveWindFarms, grant no. 306471) and by NSF (grants CBET-113380 and IIA-1243482, the WINDINSPIRE project).

  5. Book review: Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Spatial Point Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Spatial Point Patterns by J. Illian, A. Penttinen, H. Stoyan and D. Stoyan. Wiley (2008), ISBN 9780470014912......Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Spatial Point Patterns by J. Illian, A. Penttinen, H. Stoyan and D. Stoyan. Wiley (2008), ISBN 9780470014912...

  6. Proximal soil sensing to parameterize spatial environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatially explicit models are important tools to understand the effects of the interaction of management and landscape factors on water and soil quality. One challenge to application of such models is the need to know spatially-distributed values for input parameters. Some such data can come from av...

  7. Sensitivity of ecosystem models to the spatial resolution of the NCAR Community Climate Model CCM2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ciret, C. [Macquarie Univ., Sydney (Australia). Climate Impacts Centre; Henderson-Sellers, A. [Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia)

    1998-06-01

    This study evaluates the sensitivity of ecosystem models to changes in the horizontal resolution of version 2 of the national centre for atmospheric research community climate model (CCM2). A previous study has shown that the distributions of natural ecosystems predicted by vegetation models using coarse resolution present-day climate simulations are poorly simulated. It is usually assumed that increasing the spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) will improve the simulation of climate, and hence will increase our level of confidence in the use of GCM output for impacts studies. The principal goals of this study is to investigate this hypothesis and to identify which biomes are more affected by the changes in spatial resolution of the forcing climate. The ecosystem models used are the BIOME-1 model and a version of the Holdridge scheme. The climate simulations come from a set of experiments in which CCM2 was run with increasing horizontal resolutions. The biome distributions predicted using CCM2 climates are compared against biome distributions predicted using observed climate datasets. Results show that increasing the resolution of CCM2 produces a significant improvement of the global-scale vegetation prediction, indicating that a higher level of confidence can be vested in the global-scale prediction of natural ecosystems using medium and high resolution GCMs. However, not all biomes are equally affected by the increased spatial resolution, and although certain biome distributions are improved (e.g. hot desert, tropical seasonal forest), others remain globally poorly predicted even at high resolution (e.g. grasses and xerophytic woods). In addition, these results show that some climatic biases are enhanced with increasing resolution (e.g. in mountain ranges), resulting in the inadequate prediction of biomes. (orig.) With 16 figs., 5 tabs., 37 refs.

  8. Recent developments in spatial analysis spatial statistics, behavioural modelling, and computational intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Getis, Arthur

    1997-01-01

    In recent years, spatial analysis has become an increasingly active field, as evidenced by the establishment of educational and research programs at many universities. Its popularity is due mainly to new technologies and the development of spatial data infrastructures. This book illustrates some recent developments in spatial analysis, behavioural modelling, and computational intelligence. World renown spatial analysts explain and demonstrate their new and insightful models and methods. The applications are in areas of societal interest such as the spread of infectious diseases, migration behaviour, and retail and agricultural location strategies. In addition, there is emphasis on the uses of new technologoies for the analysis of spatial data through the application of neural network concepts.

  9. Extraction and restoration of hippocampal spatial memories with nonlinear dynamical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong eSong

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To build a cognitive prosthesis that can replace the memory function of the hippocampus, it is essential to model the input-output function of the damaged hippocampal region, so the prosthetic device can stimulate the downstream hippocampal region, e.g., CA1, with the output signal, e.g., CA1 spike trains, predicted from the ongoing input signal, e.g., CA3 spike trains, and the identified input-output function, e.g., CA3-CA1 model. In order for the downstream region to form appropriate long-term memories based on the restored output signal, furthermore, the output signal should contain sufficient information about the memories that the animal has formed. In this study, we verify this premise by applying regression and classification modelings of the spatio-temporal patterns of spike trains to the hippocampal CA3 and CA1 data recorded from rats performing a memory-dependent delayed nonmatch-to-sample (DNMS task. The regression model is essentially the multiple-input, multiple-output (MIMO nonlinear dynamical model of spike train transformation. It predicts the output spike trains based on the input spike trains and thus restores the output signal. In addition, the classification model interprets the signal by relating the spatio-temporal patterns to the memory events. We have found that: (1 both hippocampal CA3 and CA1 spike trains contain sufficient information for predicting the locations of the sample responses (i.e., left and right memories during the DNMS task; and more importantly (2 the CA1 spike trains predicted from the CA3 spike trains by the MIMO model also are sufficient for predicting the locations on a single-trial basis. These results show quantitatively that, with a moderate number of unitary recordings from the hippocampus, the MIMO nonlinear dynamical model is able to extract and restore spatial memory information for the formation of long-term memories and thus can serve as the computational basis of the hippocampal memory

  10. Extraction and restoration of hippocampal spatial memories with non-linear dynamical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Dong; Harway, Madhuri; Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; Hampson, Robert E; Deadwyler, Sam A; Berger, Theodore W

    2014-01-01

    To build a cognitive prosthesis that can replace the memory function of the hippocampus, it is essential to model the input-output function of the damaged hippocampal region, so the prosthetic device can stimulate the downstream hippocampal region, e.g., CA1, with the output signal, e.g., CA1 spike trains, predicted from the ongoing input signal, e.g., CA3 spike trains, and the identified input-output function, e.g., CA3-CA1 model. In order for the downstream region to form appropriate long-term memories based on the restored output signal, furthermore, the output signal should contain sufficient information about the memories that the animal has formed. In this study, we verify this premise by applying regression and classification modelings of the spatio-temporal patterns of spike trains to the hippocampal CA3 and CA1 data recorded from rats performing a memory-dependent delayed non-match-to-sample (DNMS) task. The regression model is essentially the multiple-input, multiple-output (MIMO) non-linear dynamical model of spike train transformation. It predicts the output spike trains based on the input spike trains and thus restores the output signal. In addition, the classification model interprets the signal by relating the spatio-temporal patterns to the memory events. We have found that: (1) both hippocampal CA3 and CA1 spike trains contain sufficient information for predicting the locations of the sample responses (i.e., left and right memories) during the DNMS task; and more importantly (2) the CA1 spike trains predicted from the CA3 spike trains by the MIMO model also are sufficient for predicting the locations on a single-trial basis. These results show quantitatively that, with a moderate number of unitary recordings from the hippocampus, the MIMO non-linear dynamical model is able to extract and restore spatial memory information for the formation of long-term memories and thus can serve as the computational basis of the hippocampal memory prosthesis.

  11. Consequences of spatial autocorrelation for niche-based models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Segurado, P.; Araújo, Miguel B.; Kunin, W. E.

    2006-01-01

    variables, as measured by Moran's I, was analysed and compared between models. The effects of systematic subsampling of the data set and the inclusion of a contagion term to deal with spatial autocorrelation in models were assessed with projections made with GLM, as it was with this method that estimates...... were vulnerable to the effects of spatial autocorrelation. 5.  The procedures utilized to reduce the effects of spatial autocorrelation had varying degrees of success. Subsampling was partially effective in avoiding the inflation effect, whereas the inclusion of a contagion term fully eliminated......1.  Spatial autocorrelation is an important source of bias in most spatial analyses. We explored the bias introduced by spatial autocorrelation on the explanatory and predictive power of species' distribution models, and make recommendations for dealing with the problem. 2.  Analyses were based...

  12. A spatial interaction model with spatially structured origin and destination effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeSage, James P.; Llano, Carlos

    2013-07-01

    We introduce a Bayesian hierarchical regression model that extends the traditional least-squares regression model used to estimate gravity or spatial interaction relations involving origin-destination flows. Spatial interaction models attempt to explain variation in flows from n origin regions to n destination regions resulting in a sample of N = n 2 observations that reflect an n by n flow matrix converted to a vector. Explanatory variables typically include origin and destination characteristics as well as distance between each region and all other regions. Our extension introduces latent spatial effects parameters structured to follow a spatial autoregressive process. Individual effects parameters are included in the model to reflect latent or unobservable influences at work that are unique to each region treated as an origin and destination. That is, we estimate 2 n individual effects parameters using the sample of N = n 2 observations. We illustrate the method using a sample of commodity flows between 18 Spanish regions during the 2002 period.

  13. On-line forecasting model for zinc output based on self-tuning support vector regression and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡志坤; 桂卫华; 彭小奇

    2004-01-01

    An on-line forecasting model based on self-tuning support vectors regression for zinc output was put forward to maximize zinc output by adjusting operational parameters in the process of imperial smelting furnace. In this model, the mathematical model of support vector regression was converted into the same format as support vector machine for classification. Then a simplified sequential minimal optimization for classification was applied to train the regression coefficient vector α- α* and threshold b. Sequentially penalty parameter C was tuned dynamically through forecasting result during the training process. Finally, an on-line forecasting algorithm for zinc output was proposed. The simulation result shows that in spite of a relatively small industrial data set, the effective error is less than 10% with a remarkable performance of real time. The model was applied to the optimization operation and fault diagnosis system for imperial smelting furnace.

  14. Predicting Cumulative Watershed Effects using Spatially Explicit Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, L. H.; Litschert, S.

    2004-12-01

    Cumulative watershed effects /(CWEs/) result from the combined effects of land disturbances distributed over both space and time. They are of concern because changes in flow and sediment yields can adversely affect aquatic habitat, channel morphology, water yields, and water quality. The assessment procedures currently used by agencies such as the U.S. Forest Service generally rely on a lumped approach to quantify disturbance, despite the widespread recognition that site conditions and location do matter! The overall goal of our work is to develop spatially-explicit models to quantify changes in flow and sediment yields. Key objectives include: use of readily available GIS data; ease of use for resource managers with minimal GIS experience; modularity so that models can be added or updated; and allowing users to select the models and values for key parameters. The DeltaQ model calculates changes in peak, median, and low flows due to forest management activities and fires. Inputs include GIS data with disturbance polygons, an initial change in flow rate, and the time to recovery. Data from paired watershed studies are provided to help guide the user. The initial version of FORest Erosion Simulation Tools /(FOREST/) calculates sediment production from forest harvest, fires, and unpaved roads. Additional modules are being developed to deliver this sediment to the stream channel and route it to downstream locations. In accordance with our objectives, the user can predict sediment production rates using different empirical equations, assign an initial sediment production rate and a specified linear recovery period, or develop a look-up table based on local knowledge, published values, or data from other models such as WEPP. The required GIS layers vary according to the model/(s/) selected, but generally include past disturbances /(e.g., fires and timber harvest/), roads, and elevation. Outputs include GIS layers and text files that can be subjected to additional

  15. Emergent universe in spatially flat cosmological model

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Kaituo; Yu, Hongwei

    2013-01-01

    The scenario of an emergent universe provides a promising resolution to the big bang singularity in universes with positive or negative spatial curvature. It however remains unclear whether the scenario can be successfully implemented in a spatially flat universe which seems to be favored by present cosmological observations. In this paper, we study the stability of Einstein static state solutions in a spatially flat Shtanov-Sahni braneworld scenario. With a negative dark radiation term included and assuming a scalar field as the only matter energy component, we find that the universe can stay at an Einstein static state past eternally and then evolve to an inflation phase naturally as the scalar field climbs up its potential slowly. In addition, we also propose a concrete potential of the scalar field that realizes this scenario.

  16. Modelling Implicit Communication in Multi-Agent Systems with Hybrid Input/Output Automata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Capiluppi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We propose an extension of Hybrid I/O Automata (HIOAs to model agent systems and their implicit communication through perturbation of the environment, like localization of objects or radio signals diffusion and detection. To this end we decided to specialize some variables of the HIOAs whose values are functions both of time and space. We call them world variables. Basically they are treated similarly to the other variables of HIOAs, but they have the function of representing the interaction of each automaton with the surrounding environment, hence they can be output, input or internal variables. Since these special variables have the role of simulating implicit communication, their dynamics are specified both in time and space, because they model the perturbations induced by the agent to the environment, and the perturbations of the environment as perceived by the agent. Parallel composition of world variables is slightly different from parallel composition of the other variables, since their signals are summed. The theory is illustrated through a simple example of agents systems.

  17. Effective Relaying in Two-user Interference Channel with Different Models of Channel Output Feedback

    CERN Document Server

    Sahai, Achaleshwar; Yuksel, Melda; Sabharwal, Ashutosh

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we study the impact of channel output feedback architectures on the capacity of two-user interference channel. For a two-user interference channel, a feedback link can exist between receivers and transmitters in 9 canonical architectures, ranging from only one feedback link to four-feedback links. We derive exact capacity region for the deterministic interference channel and constant-gap capacity region for the Gaussian interference channel for all but two of the 9 architectures (or models). We find that the sum-capacity in deterministic interference channel with only one feedback link, from any one receiver to its own transmitter, is identical to the interference channel with four feedback links; for the Gaussian model, the gap is bounded for all channel gains. However, one feedback link is not sufficient to achieve the whole capacity region of four feedback links. To achieve the full capacity region requires at least two feedback links. To prove the results, we derive several new outer bounds...

  18. Uncertainty Modeling and Robust Output Feedback Control of Nonlinear Discrete Systems: A Mathematical Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olav Slupphaug

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a mathematical programming approach to robust control of nonlinear systems with uncertain, possibly time-varying, parameters. The uncertain system is given by different local affine parameter dependent models in different parts of the state space. It is shown how this representation can be obtained from a nonlinear uncertain system by solving a set of continuous linear semi-infinite programming problems, and how each of these problems can be solved as a (finite series of ordinary linear programs. Additionally, the system representation includes control- and state constraints. The controller design method is derived from Lyapunov stability arguments and utilizes an affine parameter dependent quadratic Lyapunov function. The controller has a piecewise affine output feedback structure, and the design amounts to finding a feasible solution to a set of linear matrix inequalities combined with one spectral radius constraint on the product of two positive definite matrices. A local solution approach to this nonconvex feasibility problem is proposed. Complexity of the design method and some special cases such as state- feedback are discussed. Finally, an application of the results is given by proposing an on-line computationally feasible algorithm for constrained nonlinear state- feedback model predictive control with robust stability.

  19. Linear summation of outputs in a balanced network model of motor cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capaday, Charles; van Vreeswijk, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Given the non-linearities of the neural circuitry's elements, we would expect cortical circuits to respond non-linearly when activated. Surprisingly, when two points in the motor cortex are activated simultaneously, the EMG responses are the linear sum of the responses evoked by each of the points activated separately. Additionally, the corticospinal transfer function is close to linear, implying that the synaptic interactions in motor cortex must be effectively linear. To account for this, here we develop a model of motor cortex composed of multiple interconnected points, each comprised of reciprocally connected excitatory and inhibitory neurons. We show how non-linearities in neuronal transfer functions are eschewed by strong synaptic interactions within each point. Consequently, the simultaneous activation of multiple points results in a linear summation of their respective outputs. We also consider the effects of reduction of inhibition at a cortical point when one or more surrounding points are active. The network response in this condition is linear over an approximately two- to three-fold decrease of inhibitory feedback strength. This result supports the idea that focal disinhibition allows linear coupling of motor cortical points to generate movement related muscle activation patterns; albeit with a limitation on gain control. The model also explains why neural activity does not spread as far out as the axonal connectivity allows, whilst also explaining why distant cortical points can be, nonetheless, functionally coupled by focal disinhibition. Finally, we discuss the advantages that linear interactions at the cortical level afford to motor command synthesis.

  20. General solution to diagonal model matching control of multiple-output-delay systems and its applications in adaptive scheme

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yingmin Jia

    2009-01-01

    This paper mainly studies the model matching problem of multiple-output-delay systems in which the reference model is assigned to a diagonal transfer function matrix.A new model matching controller structure is first developed,and then,it is shown that the controller is feasible if and only if the sets of Diophantine equations have common solutions.The obtained controller allows a parametric representation,which shows that an adaptive scheme can be used to tolerate parameter variations in the plants.The resulting adaptive law can guarantee the global stability of the closed-loop systems and the convergence of the output error.

  1. Semi-global robust output regulation of minimum-phase nonlinear systems based on high-gain nonlinear internal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xile; Lu, Meili; Wang, Jiang; Tsang, K. M.; Deng, Bin; Che, Yanqiu

    2010-05-01

    We consider the assumption of existence of the general nonlinear internal model that is introduced in the design of robust output regulators for a class of minimum-phase nonlinear systems with rth degree (r ≥ 2). The robust output regulation problem can be converted into a robust stabilisation problem of an augmented system consisting of the given plant and a high-gain nonlinear internal model, perfectly reproducing the bounded including not only periodic but also nonperiodic exogenous signal from a nonlinear system, which satisfies some general immersion assumption. The state feedback controller is designed to guarantee the asymptotic convergence of system errors to zero manifold. Furthermore, the proposed scheme makes use of output feedback dynamic controller that only processes information from the regulated output error by using high-gain observer to robustly estimate the derivatives of the regulated output error. The stabilisation analysis of the resulting closed-loop systems leads to regional as well as semi-global robust output regulation achieved for some appointed initial condition in the state space, for all possible values of the uncertain parameter vector and the exogenous signal, ranging over an arbitrary compact set.

  2. A formal model for access control with supporting spatial context

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Hong; HE YePing; SHI ZhiGuo

    2007-01-01

    There is an emerging recognition of the importance of utilizing contextual information in authorization decisions. Controlling access to resources in the field of wireless and mobile networking require the definition of a formal model for access control with supporting spatial context. However, traditional RBAC model does not specify these spatial requirements. In this paper, we extend the existing RBAC model and propose the SC-RBAC model that utilizes spatial and location-based information in security policy definitions. The concept of spatial role is presented,and the role is assigned a logical location domain to specify the spatial boundary.Roles are activated based on the current physical position of the user which obtained from a specific mobile terminal. We then extend SC-RBAC to deal with hierarchies, modeling permission, user and activation inheritance, and prove that the hierarchical spatial roles are capable of constructing a lattice which is a means for articulate multi-level security policy and more suitable to control the information flow security for safety-critical location-aware information systems. Next, constrained SC-RBAC allows express various spatial separations of duty constraints,location-based cardinality and temporal constraints for specify fine-grained spatial semantics that are typical in location-aware systems. Finally, we introduce 9 invariants for the constrained SC-RBAC and its basic security theorem is proven. The constrained SC-RBAC provides the foundation for applications in need of the constrained spatial context aware access control.

  3. Modeling the spatial reach of the LFP

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindén, Henrik; Tetzlaff, Tom; Potjans, Tobias C

    2011-01-01

    The local field potential (LFP) reflects activity of many neurons in the vicinity of the recording electrode and is therefore useful for studying local network dynamics. Much of the nature of the LFP is, however, still unknown. There are, for instance, contradicting reports on the spatial extent...... distribution, and the correlation in synaptic activity. For uncorrelated activity, the LFP represents cells in a small region (within a radius of a few hundred micrometers). If the LFP contributions from different cells are correlated, the size of the generating region is determined by the spatial extent...

  4. Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahmann, Andrea N.; Vincent, Claire Louise; Peña, Alfredo

    2015-01-01

    setup parameters. The results of the year-long sensitivity simulations show that the long-term mean wind speed simulated by the WRF model offshore in the region studied is quite insensitive to the global reanalysis, the number of vertical levels, and the horizontal resolution of the sea surface......High-quality tall mast and wind lidar measurements over the North and Baltic Seas are used to validate the wind climatology produced from winds simulated by the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in analysis mode. Biases in annual mean wind speed between model and observations at heights...... around 100m are smaller than 3.2% at offshore sites, except for those that are affected by the wake of a wind farm or the coastline. These biases are smaller than those obtained by using winds directly from the reanalysis. We study the sensitivity of the WRF-simulated wind climatology to various model...

  5. Western Monarch and Milkweed Habitat Suitability Modeling Project- MaxEnt Model Outputs

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Products include relative habitat suitability models of five milkweed species thought to be important to western monarchs that enough data points to allow for...

  6. SISTEM KONTROL OTOMATIK DENGAN MODEL SINGLE-INPUT-DUAL-OUTPUT DALAM KENDALI EFISIENSI UMUR-PEMAKAIAN INSTRUMEN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.N.M.P. Simamora

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Efficiency condition occurs when the value of the used outputs compared to the resource total that has been used almost close to the value 1 (absolute environment. An instrument to achieve efficiency if the power output level has decreased significantly in the life of the instrument used, if it compared to the previous condition, when the instrument is not equipped with additional systems (or proposed model improvement. Even more effective if the inputs model that are used in unison to achieve a homogeneous output. On this research has been designed and implemented the automatic control system for models of single input-dual-output, wherein the sampling instruments used are lamp and fan. Source voltage used is AC (alternate-current and tested using quantitative research methods and instrumentation (with measuring instruments are observed. The results obtained demonstrate the efficiency of the instrument experienced a significant current model of single-input-dual-output applied separately instrument trials such as lamp and fan when it compared to the condition or state before. And the result show that the design has been built, can also run well.

  7. Modeling fixation locations using spatial point processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthelmé, Simon; Trukenbrod, Hans; Engbert, Ralf; Wichmann, Felix

    2013-10-01

    Whenever eye movements are measured, a central part of the analysis has to do with where subjects fixate and why they fixated where they fixated. To a first approximation, a set of fixations can be viewed as a set of points in space; this implies that fixations are spatial data and that the analysis of fixation locations can be beneficially thought of as a spatial statistics problem. We argue that thinking of fixation locations as arising from point processes is a very fruitful framework for eye-movement data, helping turn qualitative questions into quantitative ones. We provide a tutorial introduction to some of the main ideas of the field of spatial statistics, focusing especially on spatial Poisson processes. We show how point processes help relate image properties to fixation locations. In particular we show how point processes naturally express the idea that image features' predictability for fixations may vary from one image to another. We review other methods of analysis used in the literature, show how they relate to point process theory, and argue that thinking in terms of point processes substantially extends the range of analyses that can be performed and clarify their interpretation.

  8. Stochastic DEA model with undesirable outputs: An application to the prediction of anti-HIV therapy efficiency

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BIAN Fuping; TANG Xiaoqin

    2006-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic prediction DEA model with undesirable outputs and simplifies the process using chance constrained techniques in order to obtain an equivalent linear programming formulation. The existence and stability of the optimal solutions have been proved. And the model is used to describe and predict the efficiency of anti-HIV therapy in AIDS patients.

  9. Modelling spatial patterns of economic activity in the Netherlands

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Jung-Hun; Frenken, Koen; Van Oort, Frank; Visser, Evert-Jan

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how spatial configurations of economic activity emerge is important when formulating spatial planning and economic policy. Not only micro-simulation and agent-based model such as UrbanSim, ILUMAS and SIMFIRMS, but also Simon's model of hierarchical concentration have widely applied, for this purpose. These models, however, have limitations with respect to simulating structural changes in spatial economic systems and the impact of proximity. The present paper proposes a model of firm development that is based on behavioural rules such as growth, closure, spin-off and relocation. An important aspect of the model is that locational preferences of firms are based on agglomeration advantages, accessibility of markets and congestion, allowing for a proper description of concentration and deconcentration tendencies. By comparing the outcomes of the proposed model with real world data, we will calibrate the parameters and assess how well the model predicts existing spatial configurations and decide. The...

  10. Spatial emission modelling for residential wood combustion in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Brandt, Jørgen

    2016-01-01

    Residential wood combustion (RWC) is a major contributor to atmospheric pollution especially for particulate matter. Air pollution has significant impact on human health, and it is therefore important to know the human exposure. For this purpose, it is necessary with a detailed high resolution...... spatial distribution of emissions. In previous studies as well as in the model previously used in Denmark, the spatial resolution is limited, e.g. municipality or county level. Further, in many cases models are mainly relying on population density data as the spatial proxy for distributing the emissions....... This paper describes the new Danish model for high resolution spatial distribution of emissions from RWC to air. The new spatial emission model is based on information regarding building type, and primary and supplementary heating installations from the Danish Building and Dwelling Register (BBR), which...

  11. Free-streaming radiation in cosmological models with spatial curvature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, M. L.

    1982-01-01

    The effects of spatial curvature on radiation anisotropy are examined for the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker model universes. The effect of curvature is found to be very important when considering fluctuations with wavelengths comparable to the horizon. It is concluded that the behavior of radiation fluctuations in models with spatial curvature is quite different from that in spatially flat models, and that models with negative curvature are most strikingly different. It is therefore necessary to take the curvature into account in careful studies of the anisotropy of the microwave background.

  12. Modeling and Simulation of the Single Phase Voltage Source UPS Inverter With Fourth Order Output Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Faiz

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A UPS inverter operates in wide load impedance ranges from resistive to capacitive or inductive load. At the same time, fast transient load response, good load regulation and good switching frequency suppression is required. The variation of the load impedance changes the filter transfer characteristic and thus the output voltage value. In this paper, an analysis and simulation of the single phase voltage source uninterruptible power supply (UPS with fourth order filter (multiple-filter in output inverter, based on the state space averaging and small signal linearization technique, is proposed. The simulation results show the high quality sinusoidal output voltage at different loads, with THD less than %5.

  13. Ecological input-output modeling for embodied resources and emissions in Chinese economy 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Z. M.; Chen, G. Q.; Zhou, J. B.; Jiang, M. M.; Chen, B.

    2010-07-01

    For the embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions in Chinese economy 2005, a biophysical balance modeling is carried out based on an extension of the economic input-output table into an ecological one integrating the economy with its various environmental driving forces. Included resource flows into the primary resource sectors and environmental emission flows from the primary emission sectors belong to seven categories as energy resources in terms of fossil fuels, hydropower and nuclear energy, biomass, and other sources; freshwater resources; greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2, CH4, and N2O; industrial wastes in terms of waste water, waste gas, and waste solid; exergy in terms of fossil fuel resources, biological resources, mineral resources, and environmental resources; solar emergy and cosmic emergy in terms of climate resources, soil, fossil fuels, and minerals. The resulted database for embodiment intensity and sectoral embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions is of essential implications in context of systems ecology and ecological economics in general and of global climate change in particular.

  14. Beyond R0: demographic models for variability of lifetime reproductive output.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    Full Text Available The net reproductive rate R0 measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, R0 provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants.

  15. Modeling and Optimization of Coordinative Operation of Hydro-wind-photovoltaic Considering Power Generation and Output Fluctuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xianxun; Mei, Yadong

    2017-04-01

    Coordinative operation of hydro-wind-photovoltaic is the solution of mitigating the conflict of power generation and output fluctuation of new energy and conquering the bottleneck of new energy development. Due to the deficiencies of characterizing output fluctuation, depicting grid construction and disposal of power abandon, the research of coordinative mechanism is influenced. In this paper, the multi-object and multi-hierarchy model of coordinative operation of hydro-wind-photovoltaic is built with the aim of maximizing power generation and minimizing output fluctuation and the constraints of topotaxy of power grid and balanced disposal of power abandon. In the case study, the comparison of uncoordinative and coordinative operation is carried out with the perspectives of power generation, power abandon and output fluctuation. By comparison from power generation, power abandon and output fluctuation between separate operation and coordinative operation of multi-power, the coordinative mechanism is studied. Compared with running solely, coordinative operation of hydro-wind-photovoltaic can gain the compensation benefits. Peak-alternation operation reduces the power abandon significantly and maximizes resource utilization effectively by compensating regulation of hydropower. The Pareto frontier of power generation and output fluctuation is obtained through multiple-objective optimization. It clarifies the relationship of mutual influence between these two objects. When coordinative operation is taken, output fluctuation can be markedly reduced at the cost of a slight decline of power generation. The power abandon also drops sharply compared with operating separately. Applying multi-objective optimization method to optimize the coordinate operation, Pareto optimal solution set of power generation and output fluctuation is achieved.

  16. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  17. Estimation of exposure to toxic releases using spatial interaction modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conley Jamison F

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Toxic Release Inventory (TRI data are frequently used to estimate a community's exposure to pollution. However, this estimation process often uses underdeveloped geographic theory. Spatial interaction modeling provides a more realistic approach to this estimation process. This paper uses four sets of data: lung cancer age-adjusted mortality rates from the years 1990 through 2006 inclusive from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER database, TRI releases of carcinogens from 1987 to 1996, covariates associated with lung cancer, and the EPA's Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI model. Results The impact of the volume of carcinogenic TRI releases on each county's lung cancer mortality rates was calculated using six spatial interaction functions (containment, buffer, power decay, exponential decay, quadratic decay, and RSEI estimates and evaluated with four multivariate regression methods (linear, generalized linear, spatial lag, and spatial error. Akaike Information Criterion values and P values of spatial interaction terms were computed. The impacts calculated from the interaction models were also mapped. Buffer and quadratic interaction functions had the lowest AIC values (22298 and 22525 respectively, although the gains from including the spatial interaction terms were diminished with spatial error and spatial lag regression. Conclusions The use of different methods for estimating the spatial risk posed by pollution from TRI sites can give different results about the impact of those sites on health outcomes. The most reliable estimates did not always come from the most complex methods.

  18. Spatial uncertainty model for visual features using a Kinect™ sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jae-Han; Shin, Yong-Deuk; Bae, Ji-Hun; Baeg, Moon-Hong

    2012-01-01

    This study proposes a mathematical uncertainty model for the spatial measurement of visual features using Kinect™ sensors. This model can provide qualitative and quantitative analysis for the utilization of Kinect™ sensors as 3D perception sensors. In order to achieve this objective, we derived the propagation relationship of the uncertainties between the disparity image space and the real Cartesian space with the mapping function between the two spaces. Using this propagation relationship, we obtained the mathematical model for the covariance matrix of the measurement error, which represents the uncertainty for spatial position of visual features from Kinect™ sensors. In order to derive the quantitative model of spatial uncertainty for visual features, we estimated the covariance matrix in the disparity image space using collected visual feature data. Further, we computed the spatial uncertainty information by applying the covariance matrix in the disparity image space and the calibrated sensor parameters to the proposed mathematical model. This spatial uncertainty model was verified by comparing the uncertainty ellipsoids for spatial covariance matrices and the distribution of scattered matching visual features. We expect that this spatial uncertainty model and its analyses will be useful in various Kinect™ sensor applications.

  19. Spatial Uncertainty Model for Visual Features Using a Kinect™ Sensor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Han Park

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a mathematical uncertainty model for the spatial measurement of visual features using Kinect™ sensors. This model can provide qualitative and quantitative analysis for the utilization of Kinect™ sensors as 3D perception sensors. In order to achieve this objective, we derived the propagation relationship of the uncertainties between the disparity image space and the real Cartesian space with the mapping function between the two spaces. Using this propagation relationship, we obtained the mathematical model for the covariance matrix of the measurement error, which represents the uncertainty for spatial position of visual features from Kinect™ sensors. In order to derive the quantitative model of spatial uncertainty for visual features, we estimated the covariance matrix in the disparity image space using collected visual feature data. Further, we computed the spatial uncertainty information by applying the covariance matrix in the disparity image space and the calibrated sensor parameters to the proposed mathematical model. This spatial uncertainty model was verified by comparing the uncertainty ellipsoids for spatial covariance matrices and the distribution of scattered matching visual features. We expect that this spatial uncertainty model and its analyses will be useful in various Kinect™ sensor applications.

  20. Multivariate Modelling of the Canary Islands Banana Output. The Role of Farmer Income Expectation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Concepción González-Concepción

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The EU is the world’s largest importer of bananas and the only major managed market in the international banana trade. Spain is the main banana producer within the European Union (EU, followed by France and Portugal. In all these countries the fruit is grown in overseas islands situated in tropical or sub-tropical areas and bananas are a pillar of the economic, social and environmental balance of these regions. Spanish production comes from the Canary Islands, an insular environment located in the Atlantic Ocean more than 1000 km south of the Iberian Peninsula and near the northwest coast of Africa. In the context of high production costs and strong competition from Latin American imports, the compensatory aid that local farmers have been receiving from the EU since 1993 has helped the archipelago to maintain its agricultural position while constituting a main support from an economic, social and landscaping standpoint. This research analyses the Canary Islands banana output evolution through the use of certain multivariate dynamic models that consider the influence of past production costs, past farmer income and future expectations, including a sensitivity analysis. We consider annual data time series on production, perceived prices and production costs for the period 1938-2002. Model predictions are contrasted using data for the period 2003-2006, thus spanning a wide period of time that includes key points such as the 1993 reform and the introduction of the 2006 reform. The empirical work highlights, as do all EU norms, the importance of maintaining adequate farmer income expectations to assure subsistence banana production.

  1. A Spatially Distributed Hydrological Model For The Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, P.; Kinzelbach, W.; Thabeng, G.

    2003-04-01

    The Okavango Delta is a large (˜30 000 km^2) inland delta situated in northern Botswana. It is subject to annual flooding due to the strong seasonality of the inflowing Okavango River and of local rainfall. The inflowing waters spread out over vast perennial and seasonal floodplains and partially infiltrate into the underlying sand aquifer. Ultimately, the water is consumed by evapotranspiration, there is no significant outflow from the Delta. The system's response to the annual flood in the Okavango River as well as local rainfall and evapotranspiration is modelled within a finite difference scheme based on MODFLOW. The wetland and the underlying sand aquifer are incorporated as two separate layers. In the superficial layer, either steady uniform channel flow (Darcy-Weisbach equation) or potential flow (Darcy flow) can be chosen on a cell-by-cell basis. The coarse spatial resolution does not capture the small-scale variation in the topographic elevation. Therefore, upscaling techniques are applied to incorporate the statistics of that variation into effective parameters for the hydraulic conductivity, the storage coefficient and the evapotranspiration. Modelled flooding patterns are compared with flooding patterns derived from NOAA-AVHRR and other remote sensing data (1 km resolution). Good correspondence between the two is achieved based on parameters chosen according to prior knowledge and field data. Global indicators like the average size of the Delta and the temporal variance of its size are closely reproduced. Ultimately, the remotely sensed flooding patterns will be used to calibrate the model. Apart from flooding patterns, model outputs include cell-by-cell flow terms. Water balances can be calculated for arbitrary sub-regions of the grid. Other monitoring data like water levels in rivers and boreholes as well as discharges at gauging points may be used for validation of the model. The Okavango Delta is one of the prime conservation areas in Africa and a

  2. Modeling and analysis of controllable output property of cantilever-beam inertial sensors based on magnetic fluid

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guixiong LIU; Peiqiang ZHANG; Chen XU

    2009-01-01

    Magnetic fluid is first introduced into thetraditional cantileverbeam senor. Based on the property of the cantilever-beam and the novel controllable mag-viscosity of magnetic fluid, the output of cantilever-beam sensors is under control so that the controllable output of the sensors can be realized. The mathematical model of the sensors is established and analyzed. The dynamic control function and the following educational results, which include the two curves of the displacement ratio and phase function with the different damping ratio and frequency ratio, are obtained based on the model. The result shows that it is valid to realize the controllable output of the sensors by controlling the viscosity of the magnetic fluid,and finally the expanded measurement range can be realized.

  3. Full feature data model for spatial information network integration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DENG Ji-qiu; BAO Guang-shu

    2006-01-01

    In allusion to the difficulty of integrating data with different models in integrating spatial information,the characteristics of raster structure, vector structure and mixed model were analyzed, and a hierarchical vectorraster integrative full feature model was put forward by integrating the advantage of vector and raster model and using the object-oriented method. The data structures of the four basic features, i.e. point, line, surface and solid,were described. An application was analyzed and described, and the characteristics of this model were described. In this model, all objects in the real world are divided into and described as features with hierarchy, and all the data are organized in vector. This model can describe data based on feature, field, network and other models, and avoid the disadvantage of inability to integrate data based on different models and perform spatial analysis on them in spatial information integration.

  4. FUEL3-D: A Spatially Explicit Fractal Fuel Distribution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell A. Parsons

    2006-01-01

    Efforts to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of fuels treatments are hampered by inconsistencies between the spatial scale at which fuel treatments are implemented and the spatial scale, and detail, with which we model fire and fuel interactions. Central to this scale inconsistency is the resolution at which variability within the fuel bed is considered. Crown...

  5. Characterization of the northern Red Sea's oceanic features with remote sensing data and outputs from a global circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Eladawy

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Sea surface temperature (SST and surface wind (SW are considered the most important components in air–sea interactions. This study examines the relationships between SST, SW and various oceanic variables in the northern Red Sea (NRS during the period of 2000–2014. The current study is the first attempt to identify the SST fronts and their relationship with the dominant circulation patterns. SST fronts are mapped using the Cayula and Cornillon algorithms. The analysis is performed with available remote sensing and reanalyzed data together with 1/12° HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM outputs. Seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL is applied for trend analysis, and Principal Component Analysis (PCA is run for the atmospheric parameters. The SST, SW speed and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a changes show insignificant trends during the period of 2000–2014. Meridional SST fronts are more significant during the month of January, and fronts that are perpendicular to the sea's axis occur from February to May. Distinct monthly and spatial variations are present in all the examined parameters, although these variations are less pronounced for the wind direction. The SST is mainly controlled by the air temperature and sea level pressure. Significant correlations exist between the SST and the studied parameters (alongshore wind stress rather than the cross-shore wind stress, surface circulation, MLD, and Chl-a. Surface winds generally flow southeastward parallel to the Red Sea's axis explaining that alongshore wind stress is highly correlated with the studied parameters.

  6. An Improved Direction Relation Detection Model for Spatial Objects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Yucai; YI Baolin

    2004-01-01

    Direction is a common spatial concept that is used in our daily life. It is frequently used as a selection condition in spatial queries. As a result, it is important for spatial databases to provide a mechanism for modeling and processing direction queries and reasoning. Depending on the direction relation matrix, an inverted direction relation matrix and the concept of direction pre- dominance are proposed to improve the detection of direction relation between objects. Direction predicates of spatial systems are also extended. These techniques can improve the veracity of direction queries and reasoning. Experiments show excellent efficiency and performance in view of direction queries.

  7. MODELING OF THE PRIORITY SCHEDULING INPUT-LINE GROUP OUTPUT WITH MULTI-CHANNEL IN ATM EXCHANGE SYSTEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, an extended Kendall model for the priority scheduling input-line group output with multi-channel in Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) exchange system is proposed and then the mean method is used to model mathematically the non-typical non-anticipative PRiority service (PR) model. Compared with the typical and non-anticipative PR model, it expresses the characteristics of the priority scheduling input-line group output with multi-channel in ATM exchange system. The simulation experiment shows that this model can improve the HOL block and the performance of input-queued ATM switch network dramatically. This model has a better developing prospect in ATM exchange system.

  8. Spatial Statistical Procedures to Validate Input Data in Energy Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johannesson, G.; Stewart, J.; Barr, C.; Brady Sabeff, L.; George, R.; Heimiller, D.; Milbrandt, A.

    2006-01-01

    Energy modeling and analysis often relies on data collected for other purposes such as census counts, atmospheric and air quality observations, economic trends, and other primarily non-energy related uses. Systematic collection of empirical data solely for regional, national, and global energy modeling has not been established as in the abovementioned fields. Empirical and modeled data relevant to energy modeling is reported and available at various spatial and temporal scales that might or might not be those needed and used by the energy modeling community. The incorrect representation of spatial and temporal components of these data sets can result in energy models producing misleading conclusions, especially in cases of newly evolving technologies with spatial and temporal operating characteristics different from the dominant fossil and nuclear technologies that powered the energy economy over the last two hundred years. Increased private and government research and development and public interest in alternative technologies that have a benign effect on the climate and the environment have spurred interest in wind, solar, hydrogen, and other alternative energy sources and energy carriers. Many of these technologies require much finer spatial and temporal detail to determine optimal engineering designs, resource availability, and market potential. This paper presents exploratory and modeling techniques in spatial statistics that can improve the usefulness of empirical and modeled data sets that do not initially meet the spatial and/or temporal requirements of energy models. In particular, we focus on (1) aggregation and disaggregation of spatial data, (2) predicting missing data, and (3) merging spatial data sets. In addition, we introduce relevant statistical software models commonly used in the field for various sizes and types of data sets.

  9. Spatial Statistical Procedures to Validate Input Data in Energy Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    2006-01-27

    Energy modeling and analysis often relies on data collected for other purposes such as census counts, atmospheric and air quality observations, economic trends, and other primarily non-energy-related uses. Systematic collection of empirical data solely for regional, national, and global energy modeling has not been established as in the above-mentioned fields. Empirical and modeled data relevant to energy modeling is reported and available at various spatial and temporal scales that might or might not be those needed and used by the energy modeling community. The incorrect representation of spatial and temporal components of these data sets can result in energy models producing misleading conclusions, especially in cases of newly evolving technologies with spatial and temporal operating characteristics different from the dominant fossil and nuclear technologies that powered the energy economy over the last two hundred years. Increased private and government research and development and public interest in alternative technologies that have a benign effect on the climate and the environment have spurred interest in wind, solar, hydrogen, and other alternative energy sources and energy carriers. Many of these technologies require much finer spatial and temporal detail to determine optimal engineering designs, resource availability, and market potential. This paper presents exploratory and modeling techniques in spatial statistics that can improve the usefulness of empirical and modeled data sets that do not initially meet the spatial and/or temporal requirements of energy models. In particular, we focus on (1) aggregation and disaggregation of spatial data, (2) predicting missing data, and (3) merging spatial data sets. In addition, we introduce relevant statistical software models commonly used in the field for various sizes and types of data sets.

  10. From site measurements to spatial modelling - multi-criteria model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottschalk, Pia; Roers, Michael; Wechsung, Frank

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological models are traditionally evaluated at gauge stations for river runoff which is assumed to be the valid and global test for model performance. One model output is assumed to reflect the performance of all implemented processes and parameters. It neglects the complex interactions of landscape processes which are actually simulated by the model but not tested. The application of a spatial hydrological model however offers a vast potential of evaluation aspects which shall be presented here with the example of the eco-hydrological model SWIM. We present current activities to evaluate SWIM at the lysimeter site Brandis, the eddy-co-variance site Gebesee and with spatial crop yields of Germany to constrain model performance additionally to river runoff. The lysimeter site is used to evaluate actuall evapotranspiration, total runoff below the soil profile and crop yields. The eddy-covariance site Gebesee offers data to study crop growth via net-ecosystem carbon exchange and actuall evapotranspiration. The performance of the vegetation module is tested via spatial crop yields at county level of Germany. Crop yields are an indirect measure of crop growth which is an important driver of the landscape water balance and therefore eventually determines river runoff as well. First results at the lysimeter site show that simulated soil water dynamics are less sensitive to soil type than measured soil water dynamics. First results from the simulation of actuall evapotranspiration and carbon exchange at Gebesee show a satisfactorily model performance with however difficulties to capture initial vegetation growth in spring. The latter is a hint at problems capturing winter growth conditions and subsequent impacts on crop growth. This is also reflected in the performance of simulated crop yields for Germany where the model reflects crop yields of silage maize much better than of winter wheat. With the given approach we would like to highlight the advantages and

  11. Study on spatial temporal model in property management information system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李良宝; 李晓东

    2004-01-01

    Time is an important dimension for information in the geographical information system. Data, such as the historical state of target property space and related events causing the state to be changed, should be saved as important files. This should be applied to property management. This paper designs and constructs a spatial temporal model, which is suitable to the property data changing management and spatial temporal query by analyzing the basic types and characteristics of property management spatial changing time and date. This model uses current and historical situational layers to organize and set up the relationship between current situation data and historical dates according to spatial temporal topological relations in property entities. By using Map Basic, housing property management and spatial query is realized.

  12. Modeling of Electric Power Consumption by Industrial Enterprises with Ambiguous Interrelation between Power Consumption and Report Output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Moroz

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper gives description of a method for modeling electric power consumption by industrial enterprises with a complicated technological process that differs in accounting parameters of power consumption distribution laws and volume of output. The proposed method permits reliably to evaluate specific technological consumption of electric power and a direct component of electric power consumption.

  13. Regional Agricultural Input-Output Model and Countermeasure for Production and Income Increase of Farmers in Southern Xinjiang,China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage of water resources,tremendous pressure on ecological balance,insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang,agriculture remaining a weak industry,agricultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang,and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang.Taking the Aksu area as an example,according to the input and output data in the years 2002-2007,input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis.DPS software is used in the process of solving the model.Then,Eviews software is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained,and to make additional explanations of the relevant model.Since the agricultural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present,the following countermeasures are put forward,such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land,improving the utilization ratio of land,increasing agricultural input,realizing agricultural modernization,rationally utilizing water resources,maintaining eco-environmental balance,enhancing the awareness of agricultural insurance,minimizing the risk and loss,taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural products,and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.

  14. Linking ground observations, simulation model output, and remote sensing data to characterize phenology across diverse arid landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    We combined long-term data on plant phenology with simulation modeling output and remote sensing data to characterize diverse landscapes at the Jornada Experimental Range in the northern Chihuahuan Desert of southern New Mexico. Phenology of 15 key species in Chihuahuan Desert plant communities have...

  15. Scale-based spatial data model for GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WEI Zu-kuan

    2004-01-01

    Being the primary media of geographical information and the elementary objects manipulated, almost all of maps adopt the layer-based model to represent geographic information in the existent GIS. However, it is difficult to extend the map represented in layer-based model. Furthermore, in Web-Based GIS, It is slow to transmit the spatial data for map viewing. In this paper, for solving the questions above, we have proposed a new method for representing the spatial data. That is scale-based model. In this model we represent maps in three levels: scale-view, block, and spatial object, and organize the maps in a set of map layers, named Scale-View, which associates some given scales.Lastly, a prototype Web-Based GIS using the proposed spatial data representation is described briefly.

  16. Spatial modelling of wind speed around windbreaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vigiak, O.; Sterk, G.; Warren, A.; Hagen, L.J.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a model to integrate windbreak shelter effects into a Geographic Information System (GIS). The GIS procedure incorporates the 1999 version windbreak sub-model of the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS). Windbreak shelter is modeled in terms of friction velocity reduction, which

  17. Modeling signalized intersection safety with corridor-level spatial correlations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Feng; Wang, Xuesong; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed A

    2010-01-01

    Intersections in close spatial proximity along a corridor should be considered as correlated due to interacted traffic flows as well as similar road design and environmental characteristics. It is critical to incorporate this spatial correlation for assessing the true safety impacts of risk factors. In this paper, several Bayesian models were developed to model the crash data from 170 signalized intersections in the state of Florida. The safety impacts of risk factors such as geometric design features, traffic control, and traffic flow characteristics were evaluated. The Poisson and Negative Binomial Bayesian models with non-informative priors were fitted but the focus is to incorporate spatial correlations among intersections. Two alternative models were proposed to capture this correlation: (1) a mixed effect model in which the corridor-level correlation is incorporated through a corridor-specific random effect and (2) a conditional autoregressive model in which the magnitude of correlations is determined by spatial distances among intersections. The models were compared using the Deviance Information Criterion. The results indicate that the Poisson spatial model provides the best model fitting. Analysis of the posterior distributions of model parameters indicated that the size of intersection, the traffic conditions by turning movement, and the coordination of signal phase have significant impacts on intersection safety.

  18. Coordination between Understanding Historic Buildings and BIM Modelling: A 3D-Output Oriented and typological Data Capture Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, K.; Li, S. J.; Liu, Y.; Wang, W.; Wu, C.

    2015-08-01

    At the present, in trend of shifting the old 2D-output oriented survey to a new 3D-output oriented survey based on BIM technology, the corresponding working methods and workflow for data capture, process, representation, etc. have to be changed.Based on case study of two buildings in the Summer Palace of Beijing, and Jiayuguan Pass at the west end of the Great Wall (both World Heritage sites), this paper puts forward a "structure-and-type method" by means of typological method used in archaeology, Revit family system, and the tectonic logic of building to realize a good coordination between understanding of historic buildings and BIM modelling.

  19. The input and output management of solid waste using DEA models: A case study at Jengka, Pahang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Siti Rosiah; Ghazali, Nur Fadzrina Mohd; Mohd, Ainun Hafizah

    2017-08-01

    Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as a tool for obtaining performance indices has been used extensively in several of organizations sector. The ways to improve the efficiency of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is impractical because some of inputs and outputs are uncontrollable and in certain situation its produce weak efficiency which often reflect the impact for operating environment. Based on the data from Alam Flora Sdn. Bhd Jengka, the researcher wants to determine the efficiency of solid waste management (SWM) in town Jengka Pahang using CCRI and CCRO model of DEA and duality formulation with vector average input and output. Three input variables (length collection in meter, frequency time per week in hour and number of garbage truck) and 2 outputs variables (frequency collection and the total solid waste collection in kilogram) are analyzed. As a conclusion, it shows only three roads from 23 roads are efficient that achieve efficiency score 1. Meanwhile, 20 other roads are in an inefficient management.

  20. Low Cardiac Output Leads Hepatic Fibrosis in Right Heart Failure Model Rats.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshitaka Fujimoto

    Full Text Available Hepatic fibrosis progresses with right heart failure, and becomes cardiac cirrhosis in a severe case. Although its causal factor still remains unclear. Here we evaluated the progression of hepatic fibrosis using a pulmonary artery banding (PAB-induced right heart failure model and investigated whether cardiac output (CO is responsible for the progression of hepatic fibrosis.Five-week-old Sprague-Dawley rats divided into the PAB and sham-operated control groups. After 4 weeks from operation, we measured CO by echocardiography, and hepatic fibrosis ratio by pathological examination using a color analyzer. In the PAB group, CO was significantly lower by 48% than that in the control group (78.2±27.6 and 150.1±31.2 ml/min, P<0.01. Hepatic fibrosis ratio and serum hyaluronic acid, an index of hepatic fibrosis, were significantly increased in the PAB group than those in the control group (7.8±1.7 and 1.0±0.2%, P<0.01, 76.2±27.5 and 32.7±7.5 ng/ml, P<0.01. Notably, the degree of hepatic fibrosis significantly correlated a decrease in CO. Immunohistological analysis revealed that hepatic stellate cells were markedly activated in hypoxic areas, and HIF-1α positive hepatic cells were increased in the PAB group. Furthermore, by real-time PCR analyses, transcripts of profibrotic and fibrotic factors (TGF-β1, CTGF, procollargen I, procollargen III, MMP 2, MMP 9, TIMP 1, TIMP 2 were significantly increased in the PAB group. In addition, western blot analyses revealed that the protein level of HIF-1α was significantly increased in the PAB group than that in the control group (2.31±0.84 and 1.0±0.18 arbitrary units, P<0.05.Our study demonstrated that low CO and tissue hypoxia were responsible for hepatic fibrosis in right failure heart model rats.

  1. How does spatial study design influence density estimates from spatial capture-recapture models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahel Sollmann

    Full Text Available When estimating population density from data collected on non-invasive detector arrays, recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR models present an advance over non-spatial models by accounting for individual movement. While these models should be more robust to changes in trapping designs, they have not been well tested. Here we investigate how the spatial arrangement and size of the trapping array influence parameter estimates for SCR models. We analysed black bear data collected with 123 hair snares with an SCR model accounting for differences in detection and movement between sexes and across the trapping occasions. To see how the size of the trap array and trap dispersion influence parameter estimates, we repeated analysis for data from subsets of traps: 50% chosen at random, 50% in the centre of the array and 20% in the South of the array. Additionally, we simulated and analysed data under a suite of trap designs and home range sizes. In the black bear study, we found that results were similar across trap arrays, except when only 20% of the array was used. Black bear density was approximately 10 individuals per 100 km(2. Our simulation study showed that SCR models performed well as long as the extent of the trap array was similar to or larger than the extent of individual movement during the study period, and movement was at least half the distance between traps. SCR models performed well across a range of spatial trap setups and animal movements. Contrary to non-spatial capture-recapture models, they do not require the trapping grid to cover an area several times the average home range of the studied species. This renders SCR models more appropriate for the study of wide-ranging mammals and more flexible to design studies targeting multiple species.

  2. Environmental Responsibility and Policy in a Two Country Dynamic Input-Output Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rutger; Janssen, Marco A.

    2002-01-01

    Increased spatial dependency of economic activities, as well as spatial differentiation of production and consumption, has implication for environmental policy. One of the issues that has gained importance is the responsibility for the emissions from products that cross national boundaries during it

  3. 'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

    2017-04-01

    Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability and being able to deal with case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in

  4. 'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

    2016-04-01

    Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected static and interactive visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in

  5. Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Doppler

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Spatially distributed hydrological models are popular tools in hydrology and they are claimed to be useful to support management decisions. Despite the high spatial resolution of the computed variables, calibration and validation is often carried out only on discharge time-series at specific locations due to the lack of spatially distributed reference data. Because of this restriction, the predictive power of these models, with regard to predicted spatial patterns, can usually not be judged. An example of spatial predictions in hydrology is the prediction of saturated areas in agricultural catchments. These areas can be important source areas for the transport of agrochemicals to the stream. We set up a spatially distributed model to predict saturated areas in a 1.2 km2 catchment in Switzerland with moderate topography. Around 40% of the catchment area are artificially drained. We measured weather data, discharge and groundwater levels in 11 piezometers for 1.5 yr. For broadening the spatially distributed data sets that can be used for model calibration and validation, we translated soil morphological data available from soil maps into an estimate of the duration of soil saturation in the soil horizons. We used redox-morphology signs for these estimates. This resulted in a data set with high spatial coverage on which the model predictions were validated. In general, these saturation estimates corresponded well to the measured groundwater levels. We worked with a model that would be applicable for management decisions because of its fast calculation speed and rather low data requirements. We simultaneously calibrated the model to the groundwater levels in the piezometers and discharge. The model was able to reproduce the general hydrological behavior of the catchment in terms of discharge and absolute groundwater levels. However, the accuracy of the groundwater level predictions was not high enough to be used for the prediction of saturated areas

  6. Spatial emission modelling for residential wood combustion in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plejdrup, Marlene S.; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Brandt, Jørgen

    2016-11-01

    Residential wood combustion (RWC) is a major contributor to atmospheric pollution especially for particulate matter. Air pollution has significant impact on human health, and it is therefore important to know the human exposure. For this purpose, it is necessary with a detailed high resolution spatial distribution of emissions. In previous studies as well as in the model previously used in Denmark, the spatial resolution is limited, e.g. municipality or county level. Further, in many cases models are mainly relying on population density data as the spatial proxy for distributing the emissions. This paper describes the new Danish model for high resolution spatial distribution of emissions from RWC to air. The new spatial emission model is based on information regarding building type, and primary and supplementary heating installations from the Danish Building and Dwelling Register (BBR), which holds detailed data for all buildings in Denmark. The new model provides a much more accurate distribution of emissions than the previous model used in Denmark, as the resolution has been increased from municipality level to a 1 km × 1 km resolution, and the distribution key has been significantly improved so that it no longer puts an excessive weight on population density. The new model has been verified for the city of Copenhagen, where emissions estimated using both the previous and the new model have been compared to the emissions estimated in a case study. This comparison shows that the new model with the developed weighting factors (76 ton PM2.5) is in good agreement with the case study (95 ton PM2.5), and that the new model has improved the spatial emission distribution significantly compared to the previous model (284 ton PM2.5). Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was done to illustrate the impact of the weighting factors on the result, showing that the new model independently of the weighting factors chosen produce a more accurate result than the old model.

  7. Finding identifiable parameter combinations in nonlinear ODE models and the rational reparameterization of their input-output equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Nicolette; Anderson, Chris; Distefano, Joseph J

    2011-09-01

    When examining the structural identifiability properties of dynamic system models, some parameters can take on an infinite number of values and yet yield identical input-output data. These parameters and the model are then said to be unidentifiable. Finding identifiable combinations of parameters with which to reparameterize the model provides a means for quantitatively analyzing the model and computing solutions in terms of the combinations. In this paper, we revisit and explore the properties of an algorithm for finding identifiable parameter combinations using Gröbner Bases and prove useful theoretical properties of these parameter combinations. We prove a set of M algebraically independent identifiable parameter combinations can be found using this algorithm and that there exists a unique rational reparameterization of the input-output equations over these parameter combinations. We also demonstrate application of the procedure to a nonlinear biomodel.

  8. Industrial mJ-class all-fiber front end with spatially coherent top-hat beam output used as seeder for high power laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleyze, Jean-François; Perrin, A.; Calvet, Pierre; Gouriou, Pierre; Scol, Florent; Valentin, Constance; Bouwmans, Géraud; Lecren, E.; Hugonnot, Emmanuel

    2015-05-01

    In large scale laser facility dedicated to laser-matter interaction including inertial confinement fusion, such as LMJ or NIF, high-energy main amplifier is injected by a laser source in which the beam parameters must be controlled. For many years, the CEA has developed nano-joule pulses all-fiber front end sources, based on the telecommunications fiber optics technologies. Thanks to these technologies, we have been able to precisely control temporal shaping and phase-modulated pulse. Nowadays, fiber lasers are able to deliver very high power beams and high energy pulses for industrial needs (laser marking, welding,…). Therefore, we have currently developed new nanosecond pulses fibered amplifiers able to increase output pulse energy up to the mJ level. These amplifiers are based on flexible fibers and not on rod type. This allows us to achieve a compact source. Nevertheless the intensity profile of theses fibers usually has a Gaussian shape. To be compatible with main amplifier section injection, the Gaussian intensity profile must then be transformed into `top-hat' profile. To reach the goal, we have recently developed an elegant and efficient solution based on a single-mode fiber which directly delivers a spatially coherent `top-hat' beam. In the conference, we will present this mJ-class top-hat all-fiber laser system, the results and the industrial prototype which can be used as a front-end of high-power lasers or as a seeder for other types of lasers.

  9. Spatial Error Metrics for Oceanographic Model Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    quantitatively and qualitatively for this oceano - graphic data and successfully separates the model error into displacement and intensity components. This... oceano - graphic models as well, though one would likely need to make special modifications to handle the often-used nonuniform spacing between depth layers

  10. A method for the identification of state space models from input and output measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Di Ruscio

    1995-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a simple and general algorithm for the combined deterministic stochastic realization problem directly from known input and output time series. The solution to the pure deterministic as well as the pure stochastic realization problem are special cases of the method presented.

  11. Learning Anatomy: Do New Computer Models Improve Spatial Understanding?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Amit; Norman, Geoff; Spero, Lawrence; Taylor, Ian

    1999-01-01

    Assesses desktop-computer models that rotate in virtual three-dimensional space. Compares spatial learning with a computer carpal-bone model horizontally rotating at 10-degree views with the same model rotating at 90-degree views. (Author/CCM)

  12. A Structural Equation Approach to Models with Spatial Dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oud, J.H.L.; Folmer, H.

    2008-01-01

    We introduce the class of structural equation models (SEMs) and corresponding estimation procedures into a spatial dependence framework. SEM allows both latent and observed variables within one and the same (causal) model. Compared with models with observed variables only, this feature makes it poss

  13. A structural equation approach to models with spatial dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oud, J.H.L.; Folmer, H.

    2008-01-01

    We introduce the class of structural equation models (SEMs) and corresponding estimation procedures into a spatial dependence framework. SEM allows both latent and observed variables within one and the same (causal) model. Compared with models with observed variables only, this feature makes it poss

  14. Simulating river discharge in a snowy region of Japan using output from a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, X.; Kawase, H.; Adachi, S.; Fujita, M.; Takahashi, H. G.; Hara, M.; Ishizaki, N.; Yoshikane, T.; Hatsushika, H.; Wakazuki, Y.; Kimura, F.

    2013-07-01

    Snowfall amounts have fallen sharply along the eastern coast of the Sea of Japan since the mid-1980s. Toyama Prefecture, located approximately in the center of the Japan Sea region, includes high mountains of the northern Japanese Alps on three of its sides. The scarcity of meteorological observation points in mountainous areas limits the accuracy of hydrological analysis. With the development of computing technology, a dynamical downscaling method is widely applied into hydrological analysis. In this study, we numerically modeled river discharge using runoff data derived by a regional climate model (4.5-km spatial resolution) as input data to river networks (30-arcseconds resolution) for the Toyama Prefecture. The five main rivers in Toyama (the Oyabe, Sho, Jinzu, Joganji, and Kurobe rivers) were selected in this study. The river basins range in area from 368 to 2720 km2. A numerical experiment using climate comparable to that at present was conducted for the 1980s and 1990s. The results showed that seasonal river discharge could be represented and that discharge was generally overestimated compared with measurements, except for Oyabe River discharge, which was always underestimated. The average correlation coefficient for 10-year average monthly mean discharge was 0.8, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.56 to 0.88 for all five rivers, whereas the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient indicated that the simulation accuracy was insufficient. From the water budget analysis, it was possible to speculate that the lack of accuracy of river discharge may be caused by insufficient accuracy of precipitation simulation.

  15. Spatially dependent polya tree modeling for survival data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Luping; Hanson, Timothy E

    2011-06-01

    With the proliferation of spatially oriented time-to-event data, spatial modeling in the survival context has received increased recent attention. A traditional way to capture a spatial pattern is to introduce frailty terms in the linear predictor of a semiparametric model, such as proportional hazards or accelerated failure time. We propose a new methodology to capture the spatial pattern by assuming a prior based on a mixture of spatially dependent Polya trees for the baseline survival in the proportional hazards model. Thanks to modern Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, this approach remains computationally feasible in a fully hierarchical Bayesian framework. We compare the spatially dependent mixture of Polya trees (MPT) approach to the traditional spatial frailty approach, and illustrate the usefulness of this method with an analysis of Iowan breast cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute. Our method provides better goodness of fit over the traditional alternatives as measured by log pseudo marginal likelihood (LPML), the deviance information criterion (DIC), and full sample score (FSS) statistics. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

  16. Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Faye L.; Fryer, Robert J.; Hannah, David M.; Malcolm, Iain A.

    2017-09-01

    There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (Tw) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses Tw data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum Tw (Twmax) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (Ta) metric (LS_Ta models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of Twmax. However, the predictions were biased when mean Twmax differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_Ta models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the Ta metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between Twmax and the Ta metric, indicating that the Ta metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting Tw at unmonitored locations across

  17. Spatial Rule-Based Modeling: A Method and Its Application to the Human Mitotic Kinetochore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Huwald

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A common problem in the analysis of biological systems is the combinatorial explosion that emerges from the complexity of multi-protein assemblies. Conventional formalisms, like differential equations, Boolean networks and Bayesian networks, are unsuitable for dealing with the combinatorial explosion, because they are designed for a restricted state space with fixed dimensionality. To overcome this problem, the rule-based modeling language, BioNetGen, and the spatial extension, SRSim, have been developed. Here, we describe how to apply rule-based modeling to integrate experimental data from different sources into a single spatial simulation model and how to analyze the output of that model. The starting point for this approach can be a combination of molecular interaction data, reaction network data, proximities, binding and diffusion kinetics and molecular geometries at different levels of detail. We describe the technique and then use it to construct a model of the human mitotic inner and outer kinetochore, including the spindle assembly checkpoint signaling pathway. This allows us to demonstrate the utility of the procedure, show how a novel perspective for understanding such complex systems becomes accessible and elaborate on challenges that arise in the formulation, simulation and analysis of spatial rule-based models.

  18. Developing high-resolution urban scale heavy-duty truck emission inventory using the data-driven truck activity model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perugu, Harikishan; Wei, Heng; Yao, Zhuo

    2017-04-01

    Air quality modelers often rely on regional travel demand models to estimate the vehicle activity data for emission models, however, most of the current travel demand models can only output reliable person travel activity rather than goods/service specific travel activity. This paper presents the successful application of data-driven, Spatial Regression and output optimization Truck model (SPARE-Truck) to develop truck-related activity inputs for the mobile emission model, and eventually to produce truck specific gridded emissions. To validate the proposed methodology, the Cincinnati metropolitan area in United States was selected as a case study site. From the results, it is found that the truck miles traveled predicted using traditional methods tend to underestimate - overall 32% less than proposed model- truck miles traveled. The coefficient of determination values for different truck types range between 0.82 and 0.97, except the motor homes which showed least model fit with 0.51. Consequently, the emission inventories calculated from the traditional methods were also underestimated i.e. -37% for NOx, -35% for SO2, -43% for VOC, -43% for BC, -47% for OC and - 49% for PM2.5. Further, the proposed method also predicted within ∼7% of the national emission inventory for all pollutants. The bottom-up gridding methodology used in this paper could allocate the emissions to grid cell where more truck activity is expected, and it is verified against regional land-use data. Most importantly, using proposed method it is easy to segregate gridded emission inventory by truck type, which is of particular interest for decision makers, since currently there is no reliable method to test different truck-category specific travel-demand management strategies for air pollution control.

  19. InterSpread Plus: a spatial and stochastic simulation model of disease in animal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, M A; Sanson, R L; Stern, M W; O'Leary, B D; Sujau, M; Moles-Benfell, N; Morris, R S

    2013-04-01

    We describe the spatially explicit, stochastic simulation model of disease spread, InterSpread Plus, in terms of its epidemiological framework, operation, and mode of use. The input data required by the model, the method for simulating contact and infection spread, and methods for simulating disease control measures are described. Data and parameters that are essential for disease simulation modelling using InterSpread Plus are distinguished from those that are non-essential, and it is suggested that a rational approach to simulating disease epidemics using this tool is to start with core data and parameters, adding additional layers of complexity if and when the specific requirements of the simulation exercise require it. We recommend that simulation models of disease are best developed as part of epidemic contingency planning so decision makers are familiar with model outputs and assumptions and are well-positioned to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to make informed decisions in times of crisis.

  20. A utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage: Theoretical model, experimental verification and energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangyi; Gao, Shiqiao; Liu, Haipeng

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, a utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage is presented. Firstly, the harvester's three theoretical models are presented, namely the static model, the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model. By analyzing the influence of the mass ratio of the mass block to the beam on output characteristics of the harvester, we compare the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model and then define their applicable ranges. Secondly, simulation and experiments are done to verify the models, using the harvester with PZT-5H piezoelectric material, which are proved to be consistent with each other. The experimental results show that the output open-circuit voltage and the output power can reach up to 86.36V and 27.5mW respectively. The experiments are conducted when this harvester system is excited by the first modal frequency (58.90Hz) with the acceleration 10m/s2. In this low frequency vibration case, it is easy to capture the energy in the daily environment. In addition, LTC 3588-1 chip (Linear Technology Corporation) is used as the medium energy circuit to transfer charges from the PZT-5H electrode to the 0.22F 5V super capacitor and ML621 rechargeable button battery. For this super-capacitor, it takes about 100min for the capacitor voltage to rise from 0V to 3.6V. For this button battery, it takes about 200min to increase the battery voltage from 2.5V to 3.48V.

  1. A utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage: Theoretical model, experimental verification and energy storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangyi Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage is presented. Firstly, the harvester’s three theoretical models are presented, namely the static model, the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model. By analyzing the influence of the mass ratio of the mass block to the beam on output characteristics of the harvester, we compare the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model and then define their applicable ranges. Secondly, simulation and experiments are done to verify the models, using the harvester with PZT-5H piezoelectric material, which are proved to be consistent with each other. The experimental results show that the output open-circuit voltage and the output power can reach up to 86.36V and 27.5mW respectively. The experiments are conducted when this harvester system is excited by the first modal frequency (58.90Hz with the acceleration 10m/s2. In this low frequency vibration case, it is easy to capture the energy in the daily environment. In addition, LTC 3588-1 chip (Linear Technology Corporation is used as the medium energy circuit to transfer charges from the PZT-5H electrode to the 0.22F 5V super capacitor and ML621 rechargeable button battery. For this super-capacitor, it takes about 100min for the capacitor voltage to rise from 0V to 3.6V. For this button battery, it takes about 200min to increase the battery voltage from 2.5V to 3.48V.

  2. Statistical model of natural stimuli predicts edge-like pooling of spatial frequency channels in V2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutmann Michael

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It has been shown that the classical receptive fields of simple and complex cells in the primary visual cortex emerge from the statistical properties of natural images by forcing the cell responses to be maximally sparse or independent. We investigate how to learn features beyond the primary visual cortex from the statistical properties of modelled complex-cell outputs. In previous work, we showed that a new model, non-negative sparse coding, led to the emergence of features which code for contours of a given spatial frequency band. Results We applied ordinary independent component analysis to modelled outputs of complex cells that span different frequency bands. The analysis led to the emergence of features which pool spatially coherent across-frequency activity in the modelled primary visual cortex. Thus, the statistically optimal way of processing complex-cell outputs abandons separate frequency channels, while preserving and even enhancing orientation tuning and spatial localization. As a technical aside, we found that the non-negativity constraint is not necessary: ordinary independent component analysis produces essentially the same results as our previous work. Conclusion We propose that the pooling that emerges allows the features to code for realistic low-level image features related to step edges. Further, the results prove the viability of statistical modelling of natural images as a framework that produces quantitative predictions of visual processing.

  3. Restricted spatial regression in practice: Geostatistical models, confounding, and robustness under model misspecification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Schliep, Erin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.

    2015-01-01

    In spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs), covariates that are spatially smooth are often collinear with spatially smooth random effects. This phenomenon is known as spatial confounding and has been studied primarily in the case where the spatial support of the process being studied is discrete (e.g., areal spatial data). In this case, the most common approach suggested is restricted spatial regression (RSR) in which the spatial random effects are constrained to be orthogonal to the fixed effects. We consider spatial confounding and RSR in the geostatistical (continuous spatial support) setting. We show that RSR provides computational benefits relative to the confounded SGLMM, but that Bayesian credible intervals under RSR can be inappropriately narrow under model misspecification. We propose a posterior predictive approach to alleviating this potential problem and discuss the appropriateness of RSR in a variety of situations. We illustrate RSR and SGLMM approaches through simulation studies and an analysis of malaria frequencies in The Gambia, Africa.

  4. A watershed scale spatially-distributed model for streambank erosion rate driven by channel curvature

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Mitchell; Hu, Zhiyong

    2017-10-01

    Streambank erosion is a major source of fluvial sediment, but few large-scale, spatially distributed models exist to quantify streambank erosion rates. We introduce a spatially distributed model for streambank erosion applicable to sinuous, single-thread channels. We argue that such a model can adequately characterize streambank erosion rates, measured at the outsides of bends over a 2-year time period, throughout a large region. The model is based on the widely-used excess-velocity equation and comprised three components: a physics-based hydrodynamic model, a large-scale 1-dimensional model of average monthly discharge, and an empirical bank erodibility parameterization. The hydrodynamic submodel requires inputs of channel centerline, slope, width, depth, friction factor, and a scour factor A; the large-scale watershed submodel utilizes watershed-averaged monthly outputs of the Noah-2.8 land surface model; bank erodibility is based on tree cover and bank height as proxies for root density. The model was calibrated with erosion rates measured in sand-bed streams throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico coastal plain. The calibrated model outperforms a purely empirical model, as well as a model based only on excess velocity, illustrating the utility of combining a physics-based hydrodynamic model with an empirical bank erodibility relationship. The model could be improved by incorporating spatial variability in channel roughness and the hydrodynamic scour factor, which are here assumed constant. A reach-scale application of the model is illustrated on ∼1 km of a medium-sized, mixed forest-pasture stream, where the model identifies streambank erosion hotspots on forested and non-forested bends.

  5. Downscaling of general circulation model outputs: simulation of the snow climatology of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, E. [Centre Nat. de Recherches Meteorologiques Centre d`Etudes de la Neige, St. Martin d`Heres (France). Meteo-France; Timbal, B. [Groupe de Meteorologie a Grande Echelle et Climat, Toulouse (France); Brun, E. [Centre Nat. de Recherches Meteorologiques Centre d`Etudes de la Neige, St. Martin d`Heres (France). Meteo-France

    1996-12-01

    A downscaling method was developed to simulate the seasonal snow cover of the French Alps from general circulation model outputs under various scenarios. It consists of an analogue procedure, which associates a real meteorological situation to a model output. It is based on the comparison between simulated upper air fields and meteorological analyses from the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts. The selection uses a nearest neighbour method at a daily time-step. In a second phase, the snow cover is simulated by the snow model CROCUS at several elevations and in the different regions of the French Alps by using data from the real meteorological situations. The method is tested with real data and applied to various ARPEGE/climate simulations: the present climate and two climate change scenarios. (orig.). With 10 figs., 4 tabs.

  6. Downscaling of general circulation model outputs: simulation of the snow climatology of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, E.; Timbal, B.; Brun, E.

    1996-12-01

    A downscaling method was developed to simulate the seasonal snow cover of the French Alps from general circulation model outputs under various scenarios. It consists of an analogue procedure, which associates a real meteorological situation to a model output. It is based on the comparison between simulated upper air fields and meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The selection uses a nearest neighbour method at a daily time-step. In a second phase, the snow cover is simulated by the snow model CROCUS at several elevations and in the different regions of the French Alps by using data from the real meteorological situations. The method is tested with real data and applied to various ARPEGE/Climat simulations: the present climate and two climate change scenarios.

  7. Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkman, Linda

    2012-07-01

    The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

  8. SPATIAL MODELLING FOR DESCRIBING SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SOIL PHYSICAL PROPERTIES IN EASTERN CROATIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Bogunović

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to characterize the field-scale spatial variability and test several interpolation methods to identify the best spatial predictor of penetration resistance (PR, bulk density (BD and gravimetric water content (GWC in the silty loam soil in Eastern Croatia. The measurements were made on a 25 x 25-m grid which created 40 individual grid cells. Soil properties were measured at the center of the grid cell deep 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm. Results demonstrated that PR and GWC displayed strong spatial dependence at 0-10 cm BD, while there was moderate and weak spatial dependence of PR, BD and GWC at depth of 10-20 cm. Semi-variogram analysis suggests that future sampling intervals for investigated parameters can be increased to 35 m in order to reduce research costs. Additionally, interpolation models recorded similar root mean square values with high predictive accuracy. Results suggest that investigated properties do not have uniform interpolation method implying the need for spatial modelling in the evaluation of these soil properties in Eastern Croatia.

  9. Spatial memory tasks in rodents: what do they model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morellini, Fabio

    2013-10-01

    The analysis of spatial learning and memory in rodents is commonly used to investigate the mechanisms underlying certain forms of human cognition and to model their dysfunction in neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative diseases. Proper interpretation of rodent behavior in terms of spatial memory and as a model of human cognitive functions is only possible if various navigation strategies and factors controlling the performance of the animal in a spatial task are taken into consideration. The aim of this review is to describe the experimental approaches that are being used for the study of spatial memory in rats and mice and the way that they can be interpreted in terms of general memory functions. After an introduction to the classification of memory into various categories and respective underlying neuroanatomical substrates, I explain the concept of spatial memory and its measurement in rats and mice by analysis of their navigation strategies. Subsequently, I describe the most common paradigms for spatial memory assessment with specific focus on methodological issues relevant for the correct interpretation of the results in terms of cognitive function. Finally, I present recent advances in the use of spatial memory tasks to investigate episodic-like memory in mice.

  10. The case for NetCDF as a groundwater model output format using R: Example using USGS MODFLOW

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulibaly, K. M.; Barnes, M.; Barnes, D.

    2011-12-01

    The USGS MODFLOW code has become the most widely used groundwater flow code throughout the world since its release in 1989. Because MODFLOW is a plain FORTRAN code with no graphical user interface (GUI) or visualization capabilities, model results visualization and analysis is usually done with commercial or open-source packages, and self-made FORTRAN snippets. The output format of MODFLOW is a FORTRAN binary which may vary depending on compilers and platforms. NetCDF, on the other hand, is a standardized, sharable and compact format which can be read and visualized with numerous free and commercial packages including R. It is also possible to embed useful geospatial information like coordinates, projection and grid discretization in the NetCDF which are absent in the FORTRAN binary. Using NetCDF as a standard model output format would allow modelers and non-modelers to easily share, visualize and plot model results using readily available software (R, ArcGIS, MS Excel, Paraview, GRASS GIS, SAGA GIS...etc). NetCDF is a particularly good format for storing large, multidimensional datasets. Many NetCDF tools were designed for the climate community, whose datasets are often orders of magnitude larger than datasets typically used in groundwater modeling. In this study R was used to generate a NetCDF file from a MODFLOW binary output and example analyses and visualizations were implemented. R has extensive statistical and plotting capabilities which are available to the user once MODFLOW outputs are available in NetCDF format.

  11. Upscaling of Mixing Processes using a Spatial Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolster, Diogo; Sund, Nicole; Porta, Giovanni

    2016-11-01

    The Spatial Markov model is a model that has been used to successfully upscale transport behavior across a broad range of spatially heterogeneous flows, with most examples to date coming from applications relating to porous media. In its most common current forms the model predicts spatially averaged concentrations. However, many processes, including for example chemical reactions, require an adequate understanding of mixing below the averaging scale, which means that knowledge of subscale fluctuations, or closures that adequately describe them, are needed. Here we present a framework, consistent with the Spatial Markov modeling framework, that enables us to do this. We apply and present it as applied to a simple example, a spatially periodic flow at low Reynolds number. We demonstrate that our upscaled model can successfully predict mixing by comparing results from direct numerical simulations to predictions with our upscaled model. To this end we focus on predicting two common metrics of mixing: the dilution index and the scalar dissipation. For both metrics our upscaled predictions very closely match observed values from the DNS. This material is based upon work supported by NSF Grants EAR-1351625 and EAR-1417264.

  12. Spatially correlated disturbances in a locally dispersing population model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiebeler, David

    2005-01-01

    The basic contact process in continuous time is studied, where instead of single occupied sites becoming empty independently, larger-scale disturbance events simultaneously remove the population from contiguous blocks of sites. Stochastic spatial simulations and pair approximations were used to investigate the model. Increasing the spatial scale of disturbance events increases spatial clustering of the population and variability in growth rates within localized regions, reduces the effective overall population density, and increases the critical reproductive rate necessary for the population to persist. Pair approximations yield a closed-form analytic expression for equilibrium population density and the critical value necessary for persistence.

  13. Spatial Modeling Tools for Cell Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-10-01

    34 iv Figure 5.1: Computational results for a diffusion problem on planar square thin film............ 36 Figure 5.2... Wisc . Open Microscopy Env. Pre-CoBi Model Lib. CFDRC CoBi Tools CFDRC CoBi Tools Simulation Environment JigCell Tools Figure 4.1: Cell biology

  14. An Evolutionary Model of Spatial Competition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thorbjørn; Winter, Sidney G.

      This paper sets forth an evolutionary model in which diverse businesses, with diverse offerings, compete in a stylized physical space.  When a business firm attempts to expand its activity, so as to profit further from the capabilities it has developed, it necessarily does so in a "new location...

  15. Properties of spatial Cox process models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    Probabilistic properties of Cox processes of relevance for statistical modelling and inference are studied. Particularly, we study the most important classes of Cox processes, including log Gaussian Cox processes, shot noise Cox processes, and permanent Cox processes. We consider moment propertie...

  16. Spatial capture-recapture models allowing Markovian transience or dispersal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Fuller, Angela K.; Sutherland, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models are a relatively recent development in quantitative ecology, and they are becoming widely used to model density in studies of animal populations using camera traps, DNA sampling and other methods which produce spatially explicit individual encounter information. One of the core assumptions of SCR models is that individuals possess home ranges that are spatially stationary during the sampling period. For many species, this assumption is unlikely to be met and, even for species that are typically territorial, individuals may disperse or exhibit transience at some life stages. In this paper we first conduct a simulation study to evaluate the robustness of estimators of density under ordinary SCR models when dispersal or transience is present in the population. Then, using both simulated and real data, we demonstrate that such models can easily be described in the BUGS language providing a practical framework for their analysis, which allows us to evaluate movement dynamics of species using capture–recapture data. We find that while estimators of density are extremely robust, even to pathological levels of movement (e.g., complete transience), the estimator of the spatial scale parameter of the encounter probability model is confounded with the dispersal/transience scale parameter. Thus, use of ordinary SCR models to make inferences about density is feasible, but interpretation of SCR model parameters in relation to movement should be avoided. Instead, when movement dynamics are of interest, such dynamics should be parameterized explicitly in the model.

  17. Capturing Multivariate Spatial Dependence: Model, Estimate and then Predict

    OpenAIRE

    Cressie, Noel; Burden, Sandy; Davis, Walter; Krivitsky, Pavel N.; Mokhtarian, Payam; Suesse, Thomas; Zammit-Mangion, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Physical processes rarely occur in isolation, rather they influence and interact with one another. Thus, there is great benefit in modeling potential dependence between both spatial locations and different processes. It is the interaction between these two dependencies that is the focus of Genton and Kleiber's paper under discussion. We see the problem of ensuring that any multivariate spatial covariance matrix is nonnegative definite as important, but we also see it as a means to an end. Tha...

  18. Spatial Bayesian hierarchical modelling of extreme sea states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clancy, Colm; O'Sullivan, John; Sweeney, Conor; Dias, Frédéric; Parnell, Andrew C.

    2016-11-01

    A Bayesian hierarchical framework is used to model extreme sea states, incorporating a latent spatial process to more effectively capture the spatial variation of the extremes. The model is applied to a 34-year hindcast of significant wave height off the west coast of Ireland. The generalised Pareto distribution is fitted to declustered peaks over a threshold given by the 99.8th percentile of the data. Return levels of significant wave height are computed and compared against those from a model based on the commonly-used maximum likelihood inference method. The Bayesian spatial model produces smoother maps of return levels. Furthermore, this approach greatly reduces the uncertainty in the estimates, thus providing information on extremes which is more useful for practical applications.

  19. GIS application on spatial landslide analysis using statistical based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Biswajeet; Lee, Saro; Buchroithner, Manfred F.

    2009-09-01

    This paper presents the assessment results of spatially based probabilistic three models using Geoinformation Techniques (GIT) for landslide susceptibility analysis at Penang Island in Malaysia. Landslide locations within the study areas were identified by interpreting aerial photographs, satellite images and supported with field surveys. Maps of the topography, soil type, lineaments and land cover were constructed from the spatial data sets. There are ten landslide related factors were extracted from the spatial database and the frequency ratio, fuzzy logic, and bivariate logistic regression coefficients of each factor was computed. Finally, landslide susceptibility maps were drawn for study area using frequency ratios, fuzzy logic and bivariate logistic regression models. For verification, the results of the analyses were compared with actual landslide locations in study area. The verification results show that bivariate logistic regression model provides slightly higher prediction accuracy than the frequency ratio and fuzzy logic models.

  20. Uncertainty in a spatial evacuation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Ibrahim, Azhar; Venkat, Ibrahim; Wilde, Philippe De

    2017-08-01

    Pedestrian movements in crowd motion can be perceived in terms of agents who basically exhibit patient or impatient behavior. We model crowd motion subject to exit congestion under uncertainty conditions in a continuous space and compare the proposed model via simulations with the classical social force model. During a typical emergency evacuation scenario, agents might not be able to perceive with certainty the strategies of opponents (other agents) owing to the dynamic changes entailed by the neighborhood of opponents. In such uncertain scenarios, agents will try to update their strategy based on their own rules or their intrinsic behavior. We study risk seeking, risk averse and risk neutral behaviors of such agents via certain game theory notions. We found that risk averse agents tend to achieve faster evacuation time whenever the time delay in conflicts appears to be longer. The results of our simulations also comply with previous work and conform to the fact that evacuation time of agents becomes shorter once mutual cooperation among agents is achieved. Although the impatient strategy appears to be the rational strategy that might lead to faster evacuation times, our study scientifically shows that the more the agents are impatient, the slower is the egress time.

  1. Comparing spatial and temporal transferability of hydrological model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Sopan D.; Stieglitz, Marc

    2015-06-01

    Operational use of hydrological models requires the transfer of calibrated parameters either in time (for streamflow forecasting) or space (for prediction at ungauged catchments) or both. Although the effects of spatial and temporal parameter transfer on catchment streamflow predictions have been well studied individually, a direct comparison of these approaches is much less documented. Here, we compare three different schemes of parameter transfer, viz., temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal, using a spatially lumped hydrological model called EXP-HYDRO at 294 catchments across the continental United States. Results show that the temporal parameter transfer scheme performs best, with lowest decline in prediction performance (median decline of 4.2%) as measured using the Kling-Gupta efficiency metric. More interestingly, negligible difference in prediction performance is observed between the spatial and spatiotemporal parameter transfer schemes (median decline of 12.4% and 13.9% respectively). We further demonstrate that the superiority of temporal parameter transfer scheme is preserved even when: (1) spatial distance between donor and receiver catchments is reduced, or (2) temporal lag between calibration and validation periods is increased. Nonetheless, increase in the temporal lag between calibration and validation periods reduces the overall performance gap between the three parameter transfer schemes. Results suggest that spatiotemporal transfer of hydrological model parameters has the potential to be a viable option for climate change related hydrological studies, as envisioned in the "trading space for time" framework. However, further research is still needed to explore the relationship between spatial and temporal aspects of catchment hydrological variability.

  2. Spatial mixture multiscale modeling for aggregated health data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aregay, Mehreteab; Lawson, Andrew B; Faes, Christel; Kirby, Russell S; Carroll, Rachel; Watjou, Kevin

    2016-09-01

    One of the main goals in spatial epidemiology is to study the geographical pattern of disease risks. For such purpose, the convolution model composed of correlated and uncorrelated components is often used. However, one of the two components could be predominant in some regions. To investigate the predominance of the correlated or uncorrelated component for multiple scale data, we propose four different spatial mixture multiscale models by mixing spatially varying probability weights of correlated (CH) and uncorrelated heterogeneities (UH). The first model assumes that there is no linkage between the different scales and, hence, we consider independent mixture convolution models at each scale. The second model introduces linkage between finer and coarser scales via a shared uncorrelated component of the mixture convolution model. The third model is similar to the second model but the linkage between the scales is introduced through the correlated component. Finally, the fourth model accommodates for a scale effect by sharing both CH and UH simultaneously. We applied these models to real and simulated data, and found that the fourth model is the best model followed by the second model.

  3. Spatial Modeling of Indian Agriculture, Economic Activity and Population under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2010-12-01

    We present a spatial model of economic activity and human population built on physical geography that takes particular account of its effects through agricultural productivity and transport costs for trade. A major component of this work is an agricultural model, driven in part by high-resolution climate data and model output. We put forward India as the initial region for this modeling work; India is a relatively data-rich country, it exhibits significant within-country spatial and temporal variation in agricultural productivity, urbanization rates, and population growth rates, and the climate dynamics of the monsoon are well-studied and expected to change on decadal time scales. Agricultural productivity is modeled as a function of soil, climate, and technology variables. Farmers locate optimally given varying geography and transport costs; in turn, food availability defines urbanization rates and economic activity in non-agricultural sectors. This “social system” integrated assessment model is a step towards a valuable policy tool, but requires a significant mobilization of data and a grid-cell-level system of equations to describe the underlying dynamics of the model. We test against past trends of social-natural system progression in demography, human location, income, food production, etc., and argue that the model could be used to assess future trends under varying climate change scenarios, and eventually serve to model feedbacks through effects on migration, population growth rates, or economic activity.

  4. Spatial flood extent modelling. A performance based comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werner, M.G.F.

    2004-01-01

    The rapid development of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) has together with the inherent spatial nature of hydrological modelling led to an equally rapid development in the integration between GIS and hydrological models. The advantages of integration are particularly apparent in flood extent

  5. Distributed multi-criteria model evaluation and spatial association analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherer, Laura; Pfister, Stephan

    2015-04-01

    Model performance, if evaluated, is often communicated by a single indicator and at an aggregated level; however, it does not embrace the trade-offs between different indicators and the inherent spatial heterogeneity of model efficiency. In this study, we simulated the water balance of the Mississippi watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated against monthly river discharge at 131 measurement stations. Its time series were bisected to allow for subsequent validation at the same gauges. Furthermore, the model was validated against evapotranspiration which was available as a continuous raster based on remote sensing. The model performance was evaluated for each of the 451 sub-watersheds using four different criteria: 1) Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 2) percent bias (PBIAS), 3) root mean square error (RMSE) normalized to standard deviation (RSR), as well as 4) a combined indicator of the squared correlation coefficient and the linear regression slope (bR2). Conditions that might lead to a poor model performance include aridity, a very flat and steep relief, snowfall and dams, as indicated by previous research. In an attempt to explain spatial differences in model efficiency, the goodness of the model was spatially compared to these four phenomena by means of a bivariate spatial association measure which combines Pearson's correlation coefficient and Moran's index for spatial autocorrelation. In order to assess the model performance of the Mississippi watershed as a whole, three different averages of the sub-watershed results were computed by 1) applying equal weights, 2) weighting by the mean observed river discharge, 3) weighting by the upstream catchment area and the square root of the time series length. Ratings of model performance differed significantly in space and according to efficiency criterion. The model performed much better in the humid Eastern region than in the arid Western region which was confirmed by the

  6. A Statistical Toolbox For Mining And Modeling Spatial Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D’Aubigny Gérard

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Most data mining projects in spatial economics start with an evaluation of a set of attribute variables on a sample of spatial entities, looking for the existence and strength of spatial autocorrelation, based on the Moran’s and the Geary’s coefficients, the adequacy of which is rarely challenged, despite the fact that when reporting on their properties, many users seem likely to make mistakes and to foster confusion. My paper begins by a critical appraisal of the classical definition and rational of these indices. I argue that while intuitively founded, they are plagued by an inconsistency in their conception. Then, I propose a principled small change leading to corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients, which strongly simplifies their relationship, and opens the way to an augmented toolbox of statistical methods of dimension reduction and data visualization, also useful for modeling purposes. A second section presents a formal framework, adapted from recent work in statistical learning, which gives theoretical support to our definition of corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients. More specifically, the multivariate data mining methods presented here, are easily implementable on the existing (free software, yield methods useful to exploit the proposed corrections in spatial data analysis practice, and, from a mathematical point of view, whose asymptotic behavior, already studied in a series of papers by Belkin & Niyogi, suggests that they own qualities of robustness and a limited sensitivity to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP, valuable in exploratory spatial data analysis.

  7. A spatial model of mosquito host-seeking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Bree; Cortez, Ricardo; Foppa, Ivo M; Walbeck, Justin; Hyman, James M

    2012-01-01

    Mosquito host-seeking behavior and heterogeneity in host distribution are important factors in predicting the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne infections such as dengue fever, malaria, chikungunya, and West Nile virus. We develop and analyze a new mathematical model to describe the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the contact rate between mosquito vectors and hosts. The model includes odor plumes generated by spatially distributed hosts, wind velocity, and mosquito behavior based on both the prevailing wind and the odor plume. On a spatial scale of meters and a time scale of minutes, we compare the effectiveness of different plume-finding and plume-tracking strategies that mosquitoes could use to locate a host. The results show that two different models of chemotaxis are capable of producing comparable results given appropriate parameter choices and that host finding is optimized by a strategy of flying across the wind until the odor plume is intercepted. We also assess the impact of changing the level of host aggregation on mosquito host-finding success near the end of the host-seeking flight. When clusters of hosts are more tightly associated on smaller patches, the odor plume is narrower and the biting rate per host is decreased. For two host groups of unequal number but equal spatial density, the biting rate per host is lower in the group with more individuals, indicative of an attack abatement effect of host aggregation. We discuss how this approach could assist parameter choices in compartmental models that do not explicitly model the spatial arrangement of individuals and how the model could address larger spatial scales and other probability models for mosquito behavior, such as Lévy distributions.

  8. A spatial model of mosquito host-seeking behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bree Cummins

    Full Text Available Mosquito host-seeking behavior and heterogeneity in host distribution are important factors in predicting the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne infections such as dengue fever, malaria, chikungunya, and West Nile virus. We develop and analyze a new mathematical model to describe the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the contact rate between mosquito vectors and hosts. The model includes odor plumes generated by spatially distributed hosts, wind velocity, and mosquito behavior based on both the prevailing wind and the odor plume. On a spatial scale of meters and a time scale of minutes, we compare the effectiveness of different plume-finding and plume-tracking strategies that mosquitoes could use to locate a host. The results show that two different models of chemotaxis are capable of producing comparable results given appropriate parameter choices and that host finding is optimized by a strategy of flying across the wind until the odor plume is intercepted. We also assess the impact of changing the level of host aggregation on mosquito host-finding success near the end of the host-seeking flight. When clusters of hosts are more tightly associated on smaller patches, the odor plume is narrower and the biting rate per host is decreased. For two host groups of unequal number but equal spatial density, the biting rate per host is lower in the group with more individuals, indicative of an attack abatement effect of host aggregation. We discuss how this approach could assist parameter choices in compartmental models that do not explicitly model the spatial arrangement of individuals and how the model could address larger spatial scales and other probability models for mosquito behavior, such as Lévy distributions.

  9. The welfare benefit of a home's location: an empirical comparison of spatial and non-spatial model estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koschinsky, Julia; Lozano-Gracia, Nancy; Piras, Gianfranco

    2012-07-01

    This article compares results from non-spatial and new spatial methods to examine the reliability of welfare estimates (direct and multiplier effects) for locational housing attributes in Seattle, WA. In particular, we assess if OLS with spatial fixed effects is able to account for the spatial structure in a way that represents a viable alternative to spatial econometric methods. We find that while OLS with spatial fixed effects accounts for more of the spatial structure than simple OLS, it does not account for all of the spatial structure. It thus does not present a viable alternative to the spatial methods. Similar to existing comparisons between results from non-spatial and established spatial methods, we also find that OLS generates higher coefficient and direct effect estimates for both structural and locational housing characteristics than spatial methods do. OLS with spatial fixed effects is closer to the spatial estimates than OLS without fixed effects but remains higher. Finally, a comparison of the direct effects with locally weighted regression results highlights spatial threshold effects that are missed in the global models. Differences between spatial estimators are almost negligible in this study.

  10. Spatially random models, estimation theory, and robot arm dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, G.

    1987-01-01

    Spatially random models provide an alternative to the more traditional deterministic models used to describe robot arm dynamics. These alternative models can be used to establish a relationship between the methodologies of estimation theory and robot dynamics. A new class of algorithms for many of the fundamental robotics problems of inverse and forward dynamics, inverse kinematics, etc. can be developed that use computations typical in estimation theory. The algorithms make extensive use of the difference equations of Kalman filtering and Bryson-Frazier smoothing to conduct spatial recursions. The spatially random models are very easy to describe and are based on the assumption that all of the inertial (D'Alembert) forces in the system are represented by a spatially distributed white-noise model. The models can also be used to generate numerically the composite multibody system inertia matrix. This is done without resorting to the more common methods of deterministic modeling involving Lagrangian dynamics, Newton-Euler equations, etc. These methods make substantial use of human knowledge in derivation and minipulation of equations of motion for complex mechanical systems.

  11. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  12. Modelling the emergence of spatial patterns of economic activity

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Jung-Hun; Frenken, Koen

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how spatial configurations of economic activity emerge is important when formulating spatial planning and economic policy. A simple model was proposed by Simon, who assumed that firms grow at a rate proportional to their size, and that new divisions of firms with certain probabilities relocate to other firms or to new centres of economic activity. Simon's model produces realistic results in the sense that the sizes of economic centres follow a Zipf distribution, which is also observed in reality. It lacks realism in the sense that mechanisms such as cluster formation, congestion (defined as an overly high density of the same activities) and dependence on the spatial distribution of external parties (clients, labour markets) are ignored. The present paper proposed an extension of the Simon model that includes both centripetal and centrifugal forces. Centripetal forces are included in the sense that firm divisions are more likely to settle in locations that offer a higher accessibility to other fi...

  13. Spatial distribution of emissions to air – the SPREAD model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Gyldenkærne, Steen

    The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark’s obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long......-range transboundary air pollution, CLRTAP. NERI has developed a model to distribute emissions from the national emission inventories on a 1x1 km grid covering the Danish land and sea territory. The new spatial high resolution distribution model for emissions to air (SPREAD) has been developed according...... to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously...

  14. Spatial correlations in bed load transport: evidence, importance, and modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Heyman, J; Mettra, F; Ancey, C

    2016-01-01

    This article examines the spatial {dynamics of bed load particles} in water. We focus particularly on the fluctuations of particle activity, which is defined as the number of moving particles per unit bed {length}. Based on a stochastic model recently proposed by \\citet{Ancey2013}, we derive the second moment of particle activity analytically; that is the spatial correlation functions of particle activity. From these expressions, we show that large moving particle clusters can develop spatially. Also, we provide evidence that fluctuations of particle activity are scale-dependent. Two characteristic lengths emerge from the model: a saturation length $\\ell_{sat}$ describing the length needed for a perturbation in particle activity to relax to the homogeneous solution, and a correlation length $\\ell_c$ describing the typical size of moving particle clusters. A dimensionless P\\'eclet number can also be defined according to the transport model. Three different experimental data sets are used to test the theoretica...

  15. Measurement of unsteady loading and power output variability in a micro wind farm model in a wind tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossuyt, Juliaan; Howland, Michael F.; Meneveau, Charles; Meyers, Johan

    2017-01-01

    Unsteady loading and spatiotemporal characteristics of power output are measured in a wind tunnel experiment of a microscale wind farm model with 100 porous disk models. The model wind farm is placed in a scaled turbulent boundary layer, and six different layouts, varied from aligned to staggered, are considered. The measurements are done by making use of a specially designed small-scale porous disk model, instrumented with strain gages. The frequency response of the measurements goes up to the natural frequency of the model, which corresponds to a reduced frequency of 0.6 when normalized by the diameter and the mean hub height velocity. The equivalent range of timescales, scaled to field-scale values, is 15 s and longer. The accuracy and limitations of the acquisition technique are documented and verified with hot-wire measurements. The spatiotemporal measurement capabilities of the experimental setup are used to study the cross-correlation in the power output of various porous disk models of wind turbines. A significant correlation is confirmed between streamwise aligned models, while staggered models show an anti-correlation.

  16. Random spatial processes and geostatistical models for soil variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lark, R. M.

    2009-04-01

    Geostatistical models of soil variation have been used to considerable effect to facilitate efficient and powerful prediction of soil properties at unsampled sites or over partially sampled regions. Geostatistical models can also be used to investigate the scaling behaviour of soil process models, to design sampling strategies and to account for spatial dependence in the random effects of linear mixed models for spatial variables. However, most geostatistical models (variograms) are selected for reasons of mathematical convenience (in particular, to ensure positive definiteness of the corresponding variables). They assume some underlying spatial mathematical operator which may give a good description of observed variation of the soil, but which may not relate in any clear way to the processes that we know give rise to that observed variation in the real world. In this paper I shall argue that soil scientists should pay closer attention to the underlying operators in geostatistical models, with a view to identifying, where ever possible, operators that reflect our knowledge of processes in the soil. I shall illustrate how this can be done in the case of two problems. The first exemplar problem is the definition of operators to represent statistically processes in which the soil landscape is divided into discrete domains. This may occur at disparate scales from the landscape (outcrops, catchments, fields with different landuse) to the soil core (aggregates, rhizospheres). The operators that underly standard geostatistical models of soil variation typically describe continuous variation, and so do not offer any way to incorporate information on processes which occur in discrete domains. I shall present the Poisson Voronoi Tessellation as an alternative spatial operator, examine its corresponding variogram, and apply these to some real data. The second exemplar problem arises from different operators that are equifinal with respect to the variograms of the

  17. Image categorization based on spatial visual vocabulary model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuxin; He, Changqin; Guo, He; Feng, Zhen; Jia, Qi

    2010-08-01

    In this paper, we propose an approach to recognize scene categories by means of a novel method named spatial visual vocabulary. Firstly, we hierarchically divide images into sub regions and construct the spatial visual vocabulary by grouping the low-level features collected from every corresponding spatial sub region into a specified number of clusters using k-means algorithm. To recognize the category of a scene, the visual vocabulary distributions of all spatial sub regions are concatenated to form a global feature vector. The classification is obtained using LIBSVM, a support vector machine classifier. Our goal is to find a universal framework which is applicable to various types of features, so two kinds of features are used in the experiments: "V1-like" filters and PACT features. In almost all experimental cases, the proposed model achieves superior results. Source codes are available by email.

  18. Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

    2016-05-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

  19. ECoS, a framework for modelling hierarchical spatial systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, John R W; Gorley, Ray N

    2003-10-01

    A general framework for modelling hierarchical spatial systems has been developed and implemented as the ECoS3 software package. The structure of this framework is described, and illustrated with representative examples. It allows the set-up and integration of sets of advection-diffusion equations representing multiple constituents interacting in a spatial context. Multiple spaces can be defined, with zero, one or two-dimensions and can be nested, and linked through constituent transfers. Model structure is generally object-oriented and hierarchical, reflecting the natural relations within its real-world analogue. Velocities, dispersions and inter-constituent transfers, together with additional functions, are defined as properties of constituents to which they apply. The resulting modular structure of ECoS models facilitates cut and paste model development, and template model components have been developed for the assembly of a range of estuarine water quality models. Published examples of applications to the geochemical dynamics of estuaries are listed.

  20. Area-to-point Kriging in spatial hedonic pricing models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, E.-H.; Kyriakidis, P. C.

    2009-12-01

    This paper proposes a geostatistical hedonic price model in which the effects of location on house values are explicitly modeled. The proposed geostatistical approach, namely area-to-point Kriging with External Drift (A2PKED), can take into account spatial dependence and spatial heteroskedasticity, if they exist. Furthermore, this approach has significant implications in situations where exhaustive area-averaged housing price data are available in addition to a subset of individual housing price data. In the case study, we demonstrate that A2PKED substantially improves the quality of predictions using apartment sale transaction records that occurred in Seoul, South Korea, during 2003. The improvement is illustrated via a comparative analysis, where predicted values obtained from different models, including two traditional regression-based hedonic models and a point-support geostatistical model, are compared to those obtained from the A2PKED model.

  1. Analysing earthquake slip models with the spatial prediction comparison test

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, L.

    2014-11-10

    Earthquake rupture models inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in modelling assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture models obtained for a single earthquake is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real earthquakes. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip earthquakes or tsunamigenic large subduction earthquakes). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (‘model’) and a reference model. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip models with respect to a reference model.

  2. Modeling of Spatially Correlated Energetic Disorder in Organic Semiconductors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordt, Pascal; Andrienko, Denis

    2016-01-12

    Mesoscale modeling of organic semiconductors relies on solving an appropriately parametrized master equation. Essential ingredients of the parametrization are site energies (driving forces), which enter the charge transfer rate between pairs of neighboring molecules. Site energies are often Gaussian-distributed and are spatially correlated. Here, we propose an algorithm that generates these energies with a given Gaussian distribution and spatial correlation function. The method is tested on an amorphous organic semiconductor, DPBIC, illustrating that the accurate description of correlations is essential for the quantitative modeling of charge transport in amorphous mesophases.

  3. Spatial modes in one-dimensional models for capillary jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, J.; González, H.; García, F. J.

    2016-03-01

    One-dimensional (1D) models are widely employed to simplify the analysis of axisymmetric capillary jets. These models postulate that, for slender deformations of the free surface, the radial profile of the axial velocity can be approximated as uniform (viscous slice, averaged, and Cosserat models) or parabolic (parabolic model). In classical works on spatial stability analysis with 1D models, considerable misinterpretation was generated about the modes yielded by each model. The already existing physical analysis of three-dimensional (3D) axisymmetric spatial modes enables us to relate these 1D spatial modes to the exact 3D counterparts. To do so, we address the surface stimulation problem, which can be treated as linear, by considering the effect of normal and tangential stresses to perturb the jet. A Green's function for a spatially local stimulation having a harmonic time dependence provides the general formalism to describe any time-periodic stimulation. The Green's function of this signaling problem is known to be a superposition of the spatial modes, but in fact these modes are of fundamental nature, i.e., not restricted to the surface stimulation problem. The smallness of the wave number associated with each mode is the criterion to validate or invalidate the 1D approaches. The proposed axial-velocity profiles (planar or parabolic) also have a remarkable influence on the outcomes of each 1D model. We also compare with the classical 3D results for (i) conditions for absolute instability, and (ii) the amplitude of the unstable mode resulting from both normal and tangential surface stress stimulation. Incidentally, as a previous task, we need to re-deduce 1D models in order to include eventual stresses of various possible origins (electrohydrodynamic, thermocapillary, etc.) applied on the free surface, which were not considered in the previous general formulations.

  4. Management model application at nested spatial levels in Mediterranean Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Porto, Antonio; De Girolamo, Anna Maria; Froebrich, Jochen

    2014-05-01

    In the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) implementation processes, hydrological and water quality models can be powerful tools that allow to design and test alternative management strategies, as well as judging their general feasibility and acceptance. Although in recent decades several models have been developed, their use in Mediterranean basins, where rivers have a temporary character, is quite complex and there is limited information in literature which can facilitate model applications and result evaluations in this region. The high spatial variability which characterizes rainfall events, soil hydrological properties and land uses of Mediterranean basin makes more difficult to simulate hydrological and water quality in this region than in other Countries. This variability also has several implications in modeling simulations results especially when simulations at different spatial scale are needed for watershed management purpose. It is well known that environmental processes operating at different spatial scale determine diverse impacts on water quality status (hydrological, chemical, ecological). Hence, the development of management strategies have to include both large scale (watershed) and local spatial scales approaches (e.g. stream reach). This paper presents the results of a study which analyzes how the spatial scale affects the results of hydrologic process and water quality of model simulations in a Mediterranean watershed. Several aspects involved in modeling hydrological and water quality processes at different spatial scale for river basin management are investigated including model data requirements, data availability, model results and uncertainty. A hydrologic and water quality model (SWAT) was used to simulate hydrologic processes and water quality at different spatial scales in the Candelaro river basin (Puglia, S-E Italy) and to design management strategies to reach as possible WFD goals. When studying a basin to assess its current status

  5. Spatial Reasoning Training Through Light Curves Of Model Asteroids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziffer, Julie; Nakroshis, Paul A.; Rudnick, Benjamin T.; Brautigam, Maxwell J.; Nelson, Tyler W.

    2015-11-01

    Recent research has demonstrated that spatial reasoning skills, long known to be crucial to math and science success, are teachable. Even short stints of training can improve spatial reasoning skills among students who lack them (Sorby et al., 2006). Teaching spatial reasoning is particularly valuable to women and minorities who, through societal pressure, often doubt their spatial reasoning skill (Hill et al., 2010). We have designed a hands on asteroid rotation lab that provides practice in spatial reasoning tasks while building the student’s understanding of photometry. For our tool, we mount a model asteroid, with any shape of our choosing, on a slowly rotating motor shaft, whose speed is controlled by the experimenter. To mimic an asteroid light curve, we place the model asteroid in a dark box, shine a movable light source upon our asteroid, and record the light reflected onto a moveable camera. Students may then observe changes in the light curve that result from varying a) the speed of rotation, b) the model asteroid’s orientation with respect to the motor axis, c) the model asteroid’s shape or albedo, and d) the phase angle. After practicing with our tool, students are asked to pair new objects to their corresponding light curves. To correctly pair objects to their light curves, students must imagine how light scattering off of a three dimensional rotating object is imaged on a ccd sensor plane, and then reduced to a series of points on a light curve plot. Through the use of our model asteroid, the student develops confidence in spatial reasoning skills.

  6. A Spatial Lattice Model Applied for Meteorological Visualization and Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingyue Lu

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Meteorological information has obvious spatial-temporal characteristics. Although it is meaningful to employ a geographic information system (GIS to visualize and analyze the meteorological information for better identification and forecasting of meteorological weather so as to reduce the meteorological disaster loss, modeling meteorological information based on a GIS is still difficult because meteorological elements generally have no stable shape or clear boundary. To date, there are still few GIS models that can satisfy the requirements of both meteorological visualization and analysis. In this article, a spatial lattice model based on sampling particles is proposed to support both the representation and analysis of meteorological information. In this model, a spatial sampling particle is regarded as the basic element that contains the meteorological information, and the location where the particle is placed with the time mark. The location information is generally represented using a point. As these points can be extended to a surface in two dimensions and a voxel in three dimensions, if these surfaces and voxels can occupy a certain space, then this space can be represented using these spatial sampling particles with their point locations and meteorological information. In this case, the full meteorological space can then be represented by arranging numerous particles with their point locations in a certain structure and resolution, i.e., the spatial lattice model, and extended at a higher resolution when necessary. For practical use, the meteorological space is logically classified into three types of spaces, namely the projection surface space, curved surface space, and stereoscopic space, and application-oriented spatial lattice models with different organization forms of spatial sampling particles are designed to support the representation, inquiry, and analysis of meteorological information within the three types of surfaces. Cases

  7. Cell output, cell cycle duration and neuronal specification: a model of integrated mechanisms of the neocortical proliferative process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caviness, V. S. Jr; Goto, T.; Tarui, T.; Takahashi, T.; Bhide, P. G.; Nowakowski, R. S.

    2003-01-01

    The neurons of the neocortex are generated over a 6 day neuronogenetic interval that comprises 11 cell cycles. During these 11 cell cycles, the length of cell cycle increases and the proportion of cells that exits (Q) versus re-enters (P) the cell cycle changes systematically. At the same time, the fate of the neurons produced at each of the 11 cell cycles appears to be specified at least in terms of their laminar destination. As a first step towards determining the causal interrelationships of the proliferative process with the process of laminar specification, we present a two-pronged approach. This consists of (i) a mathematical model that integrates the output of the proliferative process with the laminar fate of the output and predicts the effects of induced changes in Q and P during the neuronogenetic interval on the developing and mature cortex and (ii) an experimental system that allows the manipulation of Q and P in vivo. Here we show that the predictions of the model and the results of the experiments agree. The results indicate that events affecting the output of the proliferative population affect both the number of neurons produced and their specification with regard to their laminar fate.

  8. Quantifying the importance of spatial resolution and other factors through global sensitivity analysis of a flood inundation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas Steven Savage, James; Pianosi, Francesca; Bates, Paul; Freer, Jim; Wagener, Thorsten

    2016-11-01

    Where high-resolution topographic data are available, modelers are faced with the decision of whether it is better to spend computational resource on resolving topography at finer resolutions or on running more simulations to account for various uncertain input factors (e.g., model parameters). In this paper we apply global sensitivity analysis to explore how influential the choice of spatial resolution is when compared to uncertainties in the Manning's friction coefficient parameters, the inflow hydrograph, and those stemming from the coarsening of topographic data used to produce Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). We apply the hydraulic model LISFLOOD-FP to produce several temporally and spatially variable model outputs that represent different aspects of flood inundation processes, including flood extent, water depth, and time of inundation. We find that the most influential input factor for flood extent predictions changes during the flood event, starting with the inflow hydrograph during the rising limb before switching to the channel friction parameter during peak flood inundation, and finally to the floodplain friction parameter during the drying phase of the flood event. Spatial resolution and uncertainty introduced by resampling topographic data to coarser resolutions are much more important for water depth predictions, which are also sensitive to different input factors spatially and temporally. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of LISFLOOD-FP predictions is more complex than previously thought. Consequently, the input factors that modelers should prioritize will differ depending on the model output assessed, and the location and time of when and where this output is most relevant.

  9. A spatial emergy model for Alachua County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, James David

    A spatial model of the distribution of energy flows and storages in Alachua County, Florida, was created and used to analyze spatial patterns of energy transformation hierarchy in relation to spatial patterns of human settlement. Emergy, the available energy of one kind previously required directly or indirectly to make a product or service, was used as a measure of the quality of the different forms of energy flows and storages. Emergy provides a common unit of measure for comparing the productive contributions of natural processes with those of economic and social processes---it is an alternative to using money for measuring value. A geographic information system was used to create a spatial model and make maps that show the distribution and magnitude of different types of energy and emergy flows and storages occurring in one-hectare land units. Energy transformities were used to convert individual energy flows and storages into emergy units. Maps of transformities were created that reveal a clear spatial pattern of energy transformation hierarchy. The maps display patterns of widely-dispersed areas with lower transformity energy flows and storages, and smaller, centrally-located areas with higher transformities. Energy signature graphs and spatial unit transformities were used to characterize and compare the types and amounts of energy being consumed and stored according to land use classification, planning unit, and neighborhood categories. Emergy ratio maps and spatial unit ratios were created by dividing the values for specific emergy flows or storages by the values for other emergy flows or storages. Spatial context analysis was used to analyze the spatial distribution patterns of mean and maximum values for emergy flows and storages. The modeling method developed for this study is general and applicable to all types of landscapes and could be applied at any scale. An advantage of this general approach is that the results of other studies using this method

  10. Applying Causal Discovery to the Output of Climate Models - What Can We Learn from the Causal Signatures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebert-Uphoff, I.; Hammerling, D.; Samarasinghe, S.; Baker, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    The framework of causal discovery provides algorithms that seek to identify potential cause-effect relationships from observational data. The output of such algorithms is a graph structure that indicates the potential causal connections between the observed variables. Originally developed for applications in the social sciences and economics, causal discovery has been used with great success in bioinformatics and, most recently, in climate science, primarily to identify interaction patterns between compound climate variables and to track pathways of interactions between different locations around the globe. Here we apply causal discovery to the output data of climate models to learn so-called causal signatures from the data that indicate interactions between the different atmospheric variables. These causal signatures can act like fingerprints for the underlying dynamics and thus serve a variety of diagnostic purposes. We study the use of the causal signatures for three applications: 1) For climate model software verification we suggest to use causal signatures as a means of detecting statistical differences between model runs, thus identifying potential errors and supplementing the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Testing (CESM-ECT) tool recently developed at NCAR for CESM verification. 2) In the context of data compression of model runs, we will test how much the causal signatures of the model outputs changes after different compression algorithms have been applied. This may result in additional means to determine which type and amount of compression is acceptable. 3) This is the first study applying causal discovery simultaneously to a large number of different atmospheric variables, and in the process of studying the resulting interaction patterns for the two aforementioned applications, we expect to gain some new insights into their relationships from this approach. We will present first results obtained for Applications 1 and 2 above.

  11. Multivariate Receptor Models for Spatially Correlated Multipollutant Data

    KAUST Repository

    Jun, Mikyoung

    2013-08-01

    The goal of multivariate receptor modeling is to estimate the profiles of major pollution sources and quantify their impacts based on ambient measurements of pollutants. Traditionally, multivariate receptor modeling has been applied to multiple air pollutant data measured at a single monitoring site or measurements of a single pollutant collected at multiple monitoring sites. Despite the growing availability of multipollutant data collected from multiple monitoring sites, there has not yet been any attempt to incorporate spatial dependence that may exist in such data into multivariate receptor modeling. We propose a spatial statistics extension of multivariate receptor models that enables us to incorporate spatial dependence into estimation of source composition profiles and contributions given the prespecified number of sources and the model identification conditions. The proposed method yields more precise estimates of source profiles by accounting for spatial dependence in the estimation. More importantly, it enables predictions of source contributions at unmonitored sites as well as when there are missing values at monitoring sites. The method is illustrated with simulated data and real multipollutant data collected from eight monitoring sites in Harris County, Texas. Supplementary materials for this article, including data and R code for implementing the methods, are available online on the journal web site. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

  12. Spatial analysis of future East Asian seasonal temperature using two regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yura; Jun, Mikyoung; Min, Seung-Ki; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-05-01

    CORDEX-East Asia, a branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) initiative, provides high-resolution climate simulations for the domain covering East Asia. This study analyzes temperature data from regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX - East Asia region, accounting for the spatial dependence structure of the data. In particular, we assess similarities and dissimilarities of the outputs from two RCMs, HadGEM3-RA and RegCM4, over the region and over time. A Bayesian functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is used to simultaneously model the temperature patterns from the two RCMs for the current and future climate. We exploit nonstationary spatial models to handle the spatial dependence structure of the temperature variable, which depends heavily on latitude and altitude. For a seasonal comparison, we examine changes in the winter temperature in addition to the summer temperature data. We find that the temperature increase projected by RegCM4 tends to be smaller than the projection of HadGEM3-RA for summers, and that the future warming projected by HadGEM3-RA tends to be weaker for winters. Also, the results show that there will be a warming of 1-3°C over the region in 45 years. More specifically, the warming pattern clearly depends on the latitude, with greater temperature increases in higher latitude areas, which implies that warming may be more severe in the northern part of the domain.

  13. Comparison of nine theoretical models for estimating the mechanical power output in cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    González‐Haro, Carlos; Ballarini, P A Galilea; Soria, M; Drobnic, F; Escanero, J F

    2007-01-01

    Objective To assess which of the equations used to estimate mechanical power output for a wide aerobic range of exercise intensities gives the closest value to that measured with the SRM training system. Methods Thirty four triathletes and endurance cyclists of both sexes (mean (SD) age 24 (5) years, height 176.3 (6.6) cm, weight 69.4 (7.6) kg and Vo2max 61.5 (5.9) ml/kg/min) performed three incremental tests, one in the laboratory and two in the velodrome. The mean mechanical power output measured with the SRM training system in the velodrome tests corresponding to each stage of the tests was compared with the values theoretically estimated using the nine most referenced equations in literature (Whitt (Ergonomics 1971;14:419–24); Di Prampero et al (J Appl Physiol 1979;47:201–6); Whitt and Wilson (Bicycling science. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1982); Kyle (Racing with the sun. Philadelphia: Society of Automotive Engineers, 1991:43–50); Menard (First International Congress on Science and Cycling Skills, Malaga, 1992); Olds et al (J Appl Physiol 1995;78:1596–611; J Appl Physiol 1993;75:730–7); Broker (USOC Sport Science and Technology Report 1–24, 1994); Candau et al (Med Sci Sports Exerc 1999;31:1441–7)). This comparison was made using the mean squared error of prediction, the systematic error and the random error. Results The equations of Candau et al, Di Prampero et al, Olds et al (J Appl Physiol 1993;75:730–7) and Whitt gave a moderate mean squared error of prediction (12.7%, 21.6%, 13.2% and 16.5%, respectively) and a low random error (0.5%, 0.6%, 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively). Conclusions The equations of Candau et al and Di Prampero et al give the best estimate of mechanical power output when compared with measurements obtained with the SRM training system. PMID:17341588

  14. Spatial object model[l]ing in fuzzy topological spaces : with applications to land cover change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Xinming

    2004-01-01

    The central topic of this thesis focuses on the accommodation of fuzzy spatial objects in a GIS. Several issues are discussed theoretically and practically, including the definition of fuzzy spatial objects, the topological relations between them, the modeling of fuzzy spatial objects, the generatio

  15. A Non-Gaussian Spatial Generalized Linear Latent Variable Model

    KAUST Repository

    Irincheeva, Irina

    2012-08-03

    We consider a spatial generalized linear latent variable model with and without normality distributional assumption on the latent variables. When the latent variables are assumed to be multivariate normal, we apply a Laplace approximation. To relax the assumption of marginal normality in favor of a mixture of normals, we construct a multivariate density with Gaussian spatial dependence and given multivariate margins. We use the pairwise likelihood to estimate the corresponding spatial generalized linear latent variable model. The properties of the resulting estimators are explored by simulations. In the analysis of an air pollution data set the proposed methodology uncovers weather conditions to be a more important source of variability than air pollution in explaining all the causes of non-accidental mortality excluding accidents. © 2012 International Biometric Society.

  16. Mixtures of Polya trees for flexible spatial frailty survival modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Luping; Hanson, Timothy E; Carlin, Bradley P

    2009-06-01

    Mixtures of Polya trees offer a very flexible nonparametric approach for modelling time-to-event data. Many such settings also feature spatial association that requires further sophistication, either at the point level or at the lattice level. In this paper, we combine these two aspects within three competing survival models, obtaining a data analytic approach that remains computationally feasible in a fully hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We illustrate our proposed methods with an analysis of spatially oriented breast cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program of the National Cancer Institute. Our results indicate appreciable advantages for our approach over competing methods that impose unrealistic parametric assumptions, ignore spatial association or both.

  17. Noncausal spatial prediction filtering based on an ARMA model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Zhipeng; Chen Xiaohong; Li Jingye

    2009-01-01

    Conventional f-x prediction filtering methods are based on an autoregressive model. The error section is first computed as a source noise but is removed as additive noise to obtain the signal, which results in an assumption inconsistency before and after filtering. In this paper, an autoregressive, moving-average model is employed to avoid the model inconsistency. Based on the ARMA model, a noncasual prediction filter is computed and a self-deconvolved projection filter is used for estimating additive noise in order to suppress random noise. The 1-D ARMA model is also extended to the 2-D spatial domain, which is the basis for noncasual spatial prediction filtering for random noise attenuation on 3-D seismic data. Synthetic and field data processing indicate this method can suppress random noise more effectively and preserve the signal simultaneously and does much better than other conventional prediction filtering methods.

  18. Integrated Water and CGE Model of the Impacts of Water Policy on the Beijing's Economy and Output

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xia Jun; Deng Qun; Sun Yangbo

    2010-01-01

    The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy.Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.

  19. Modeling commuting patterns in a multi-regional input-output framework: impacts of an `urban re-centralization' scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, J.-P.; Ramos, P.; Cruz, L.; Barata, E.

    2017-10-01

    The paper suggests a modeling approach for assessing economic and social impacts of changes in urban forms and commuting patterns that extends a multi-regional input-output framework by incorporating a set of commuting-related consequences. The Lisbon Metropolitan Area case with an urban re-centralization scenario is used as an example to illustrate the relevance of this modeling approach for analyzing commuting-related changes in regional income distribution on the one side and in household consumption structures on the other.

  20. Spatial cognition and crime: the study of mental models of spatial relations in crime analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luini, Lorenzo P; Scorzelli, Marco; Mastroberardino, Serena; Marucci, Francesco S

    2012-08-01

    Several studies employed different algorithms in order to investigate criminal's spatial behaviour and to identify mental models and cognitive strategies related to it. So far, a number of geographic profiling (GP) software have been implemented to analyse mobility and its relation to the way criminals are using spatial environment when committing a crime. Since crimes are usually perpetrated in the offender's high-awareness areas, those cognitive maps can be employed to create a map of the criminal's operating area to help investigators to circumscribe search areas. The aim of the present study was to verify accuracy of simple statistical analysis in predicting spatial mobility of a group of 30 non-criminal subjects. Results showed that statistics such as Mean Centre and Standard Distance were accurate in elaborating a GP for each subject according to the mobility area provided. Future analysis will be implemented using mobility information of criminal subjects and location-based software to verify whether there is a cognitive spatial strategy employed by them when planning and committing a crime.

  1. Millimeter wave imaging system modeling: spatial frequency domain calculation versus spatial domain calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Feng; Tavakol, Vahid; Ocket, Ilja; Xu, Peng; Schreurs, Dominique; Wang, Jinkuan; Nauwelaers, Bart

    2010-01-01

    Active millimeter wave imaging systems have become a promising candidate for indoor security applications and industrial inspection. However, there is a lack of simulation tools at the system level. We introduce and evaluate two modeling approaches that are applied to active millimeter wave imaging systems. The first approach originates in Fourier optics and concerns the calculation in the spatial frequency domain. The second approach is based on wave propagation and corresponds to calculation in the spatial domain. We compare the two approaches in the case of both rough and smooth objects and point out that the spatial frequency domain calculation may suffer from a large error in amplitude of 50% in the case of rough objects. The comparison demonstrates that the concepts of point-spread function and f-number should be applied with careful consideration in coherent millimeter wave imaging systems. In the case of indoor applications, the near-field effect should be considered, and this is included in the spatial domain calculation.

  2. Model outputs for each hotspot site to identify the likely environmental, economic and social effects of proposed remediation strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleskens, Luuk; Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike

    2012-01-01

    Portuguese sites) a fire severity index under current conditions and under different technologies. The DESMICE model is informed by WB3 WOCAT database records, economic WB4 experimental results, additionally requested data on spatial variability of costs and benefits, and secondary data. It applies spatially......This report presents the PESERA-DESMICE model results for the study sites where it has been applied. Modelling has been the key strategy adopted in the DESIRE project to scale up results from the field to the regional level. The PESERA model, extended with several process descriptions to account...... for a variety of degradation types and to enable taking into account the effects of land degradation remediation options, has been calibrated to local study site conditions with local input data and verification results from WB4 trials and secondary sources. It is used to model erosion, biomass, and (for...

  3. Site compare scripts and output

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Monthly site compare scripts and output used to generate the model/ob plots and statistics in the manuscript. The AQS hourly site compare output files are not...

  4. Modelling the current and future spatial distribution of NPP in a Mediterranean watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donmez, Cenk; Berberoglu, Suha; Curran, Paul J.

    2011-06-01

    The aim of this study is to use full spatial resolution Envisat MERIS data to drive an ecosystem productivity model for pine forests along the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The Carnegie, Ames, Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial biogeochemical model, designed to simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle using satellite sensor and meteorological data, was used to estimate annual regional fluxes in terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP). At its core this model is based on light-use efficiency, influenced by temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. Present climate data was generated from 50 climate stations within the watershed using co-kriging. Regional scale pseudo-warming data for year 2070 were derived using a Regional Climate Model (RCM) these data were used to downscale the GCM General Circulation Model for the research area as part of an international research project called Impact of Climate Changes on Agricultural Production Systems in Arid Areas (ICCAP). Outputs of climate data can be moderated using the four variables of percent tree cover, land cover, soil texture and NDVI. This study employed 47 MERIS images recorded between March 2003 and September 2005 to derive percent tree cover, land cover and NDVI. Envisat MERIS data hold great potential for estimating NPP with the CASA model because of the appropriateness of both its spatial and its spectral resolution.

  5. Spatial optimum collocation model of urban land and its algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Xiangqiang; Li, Xinyun

    2007-06-01

    Optimizing the allocation of urban land is that layout and fix position the various types of land-use in space, maximize the overall benefits of urban space (including economic, social, environment) using a certain method and technique. There is two problems need to deal with in optimizing the allocation of urban land in the technique: one is the quantitative structure, the other is the space structure. In allusion to these problems, according to the principle of spatial coordination, a kind of new optimum collocation model about urban land was put forward in this text. In the model, we give a target function and a set of "soft" constraint conditions, and the area proportions of various types of land-use are restricted to the corresponding allowed scope. Spatial genetic algorithm is used to manipulate and calculate the space of urban land, the optimum spatial collocation scheme can be gradually approached, in which the three basic operations of reproduction, crossover and mutation are all operated on the space. Taking the built-up areas of Jinan as an example, we did the spatial optimum collocation experiment of urban land, the spatial aggregation of various types is better, and an approving result was got.

  6. Multidimensional Big Spatial Data Modeling Through A Case Study: Lte Rf Subsystem Power Consumption Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antón Castro, Francesc/François; Musiige, Deogratius; Mioc, Darka

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a case study for comparing different multidimensional mathematical modeling methodologies used in multidimensional spatial big data modeling and proposing a new technique. An analysis of multidimensional modeling approaches (neural networks, polynomial interpolation and homotopy...

  7. A theory and a computational model of spatial reasoning with preferred mental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragni, Marco; Knauff, Markus

    2013-07-01

    Inferences about spatial arrangements and relations like "The Porsche is parked to the left of the Dodge and the Ferrari is parked to the right of the Dodge, thus, the Porsche is parked to the left of the Ferrari," are ubiquitous. However, spatial descriptions are often interpretable in many different ways and compatible with several alternative mental models. This article suggests that individuals tackle such indeterminate multiple-model problems by constructing a single, simple, and typical mental model but neglect other possible models. The model that first comes to reasoners' minds is the preferred mental model. It helps save cognitive resources but also leads to reasoning errors and illusory inferences. The article presents a preferred model theory and an instantiation of this theory in the form of a computational model, preferred inferences in reasoning with spatial mental models (PRISM). PRISM can be used to simulate and explain how preferred models are constructed, inspected, and varied in a spatial array that functions as if it were a spatial working memory. A spatial focus inserts tokens into the array, inspects the array to find new spatial relations, and relocates tokens in the array to generate alternative models of the problem description, if necessary. The article also introduces a general measure of difficulty based on the number of necessary focus operations (rather than the number of models). A comparison with results from psychological experiments shows that the theory can explain preferences, errors, and the difficulty of spatial reasoning problems.

  8. Function modeling improves the efficiency of spatial modeling using big data from remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Hogland; Nathaniel Anderson

    2017-01-01

    Spatial modeling is an integral component of most geographic information systems (GISs). However, conventional GIS modeling techniques can require substantial processing time and storage space and have limited statistical and machine learning functionality. To address these limitations, many have parallelized spatial models using multiple coding libraries and have...

  9. Rockfall hazard analysis using LiDAR and spatial modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Hengxing; Martin, C. Derek; Zhou, Chenghu; Lim, Chang Ho

    2010-05-01

    Rockfalls have been significant geohazards along the Canadian Class 1 Railways (CN Rail and CP Rail) since their construction in the late 1800s. These rockfalls cause damage to infrastructure, interruption of business, and environmental impacts, and their occurrence varies both spatially and temporally. The proactive management of these rockfall hazards requires enabling technologies. This paper discusses a hazard assessment strategy for rockfalls along a section of a Canadian railway using LiDAR and spatial modeling. LiDAR provides accurate topographical information of the source area of rockfalls and along their paths. Spatial modeling was conducted using Rockfall Analyst, a three dimensional extension to GIS, to determine the characteristics of the rockfalls in terms of travel distance, velocity and energy. Historical rockfall records were used to calibrate the physical characteristics of the rockfall processes. The results based on a high-resolution digital elevation model from a LiDAR dataset were compared with those based on a coarse digital elevation model. A comprehensive methodology for rockfall hazard assessment is proposed which takes into account the characteristics of source areas, the physical processes of rockfalls and the spatial attribution of their frequency and energy.

  10. Lateral specialization in unilateral spatial neglect: a cognitive robotics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conti, Daniela; Di Nuovo, Santo; Cangelosi, Angelo; Di Nuovo, Alessandro

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we present the experimental results of an embodied cognitive robotic approach for modelling the human cognitive deficit known as unilateral spatial neglect (USN). To this end, we introduce an artificial neural network architecture designed and trained to control the spatial attentional focus of the iCub robotic platform. Like the human brain, the architecture is divided into two hemispheres and it incorporates bio-inspired plasticity mechanisms, which allow the development of the phenomenon of the specialization of the right hemisphere for spatial attention. In this study, we validate the model by replicating a previous experiment with human patients affected by the USN and numerical results show that the robot mimics the behaviours previously exhibited by humans. We also simulated recovery after the damage to compare the performance of each of the two hemispheres as additional validation of the model. Finally, we highlight some possible advantages of modelling cognitive dysfunctions of the human brain by means of robotic platforms, which can supplement traditional approaches for studying spatial impairments in humans.

  11. Spatial modeling on the nutrient retention of an estuary wetland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, X.; Xiao, D.; Jongman, R.H.G.; Harms, W.B.; Bregt, A.K.

    2003-01-01

    There is a great potential to use the estuary wetland as a final filter for nutrient enriched river water, and reduce the possibility of coastal water eutrophication. Based upon field data, spatial models were designed on a stepwise basis to simulate the nutrient reduction function of the wetland in

  12. Design of spatial experiments: Model fitting and prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, V.V.

    1996-03-01

    The main objective of the paper is to describe and develop model oriented methods and algorithms for the design of spatial experiments. Unlike many other publications in this area, the approach proposed here is essentially based on the ideas of convex design theory.

  13. On Angular Sampling Methods for 3-D Spatial Channel Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fan, Wei; Jämsä, Tommi; Nielsen, Jesper Ødum

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses generating three dimensional (3D) spatial channel models with emphasis on the angular sampling methods. Three angular sampling methods, i.e. modified uniform power sampling, modified uniform angular sampling, and random pairing methods are proposed and investigated in detail....

  14. Differences in spatial understanding between physical and virtual models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Sun

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In the digital age, physical models are still used as major tools in architectural and urban design processes. The reason why designers still use physical models remains unclear. In addition, physical and 3D virtual models have yet to be differentiated. The answers to these questions are too complex to account for in all aspects. Thus, this study only focuses on the differences in spatial understanding between physical and virtual models. In particular, it emphasizes on the perception of scale. For our experiment, respondents were shown a physical model and a virtual model consecutively. A questionnaire was then used to ask the respondents to evaluate these models objectively and to establish which model was more accurate in conveying object size. Compared with the virtual model, the physical model tended to enable quicker and more accurate comparisons of building heights.

  15. Logic models to predict continuous outputs based on binary inputs with an application to personalized cancer therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knijnenburg, Theo A.; Klau, Gunnar W.; Iorio, Francesco; Garnett, Mathew J.; McDermott, Ultan; Shmulevich, Ilya; Wessels, Lodewyk F. A.

    2016-01-01

    Mining large datasets using machine learning approaches often leads to models that are hard to interpret and not amenable to the generation of hypotheses that can be experimentally tested. We present ‘Logic Optimization for Binary Input to Continuous Output’ (LOBICO), a computational approach that infers small and easily interpretable logic models of binary input features that explain a continuous output variable. Applying LOBICO to a large cancer cell line panel, we find that logic combinations of multiple mutations are more predictive of drug response than single gene predictors. Importantly, we show that the use of the continuous information leads to robust and more accurate logic models. LOBICO implements the ability to uncover logic models around predefined operating points in terms of sensitivity and specificity. As such, it represents an important step towards practical application of interpretable logic models. PMID:27876821

  16. Logic models to predict continuous outputs based on binary inputs with an application to personalized cancer therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knijnenburg, Theo A.; Klau, Gunnar W.; Iorio, Francesco; Garnett, Mathew J.; McDermott, Ultan; Shmulevich, Ilya; Wessels, Lodewyk F. A.

    2016-11-01

    Mining large datasets using machine learning approaches often leads to models that are hard to interpret and not amenable to the generation of hypotheses that can be experimentally tested. We present ‘Logic Optimization for Binary Input to Continuous Output’ (LOBICO), a computational approach that infers small and easily interpretable logic models of binary input features that explain a continuous output variable. Applying LOBICO to a large cancer cell line panel, we find that logic combinations of multiple mutations are more predictive of drug response than single gene predictors. Importantly, we show that the use of the continuous information leads to robust and more accurate logic models. LOBICO implements the ability to uncover logic models around predefined operating points in terms of sensitivity and specificity. As such, it represents an important step towards practical application of interpretable logic models.

  17. Through the looking glass: making the design and output of economic models useful for setting medical policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollendorf, Daniel A; Pearson, Steven D

    2014-01-01

    Economic modeling has rarely been considered to be an essential component of healthcare policy-making in the USA, due to a lack of transparency in model design and assumptions, as well as political interests that equate examination of cost with unfair rationing. The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review has been involved in several efforts to bring economic modeling into public discussion of the comparative value of healthcare interventions, efforts that have evolved over time to suit the needs of multiple public forums. In this article, we review these initiatives and present a template that attempts to 'unpack' model output and present the major drivers of outcomes and cost. We conclude with a series of recommendations for effective presentation of economic models to US policy-makers.

  18. Modern methodology and applications in spatial-temporal modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Matsui, Tomoko

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a modern introductory tutorial on specialized methodological and applied aspects of spatial and temporal modeling. The areas covered involve a range of topics which reflect the diversity of this domain of research across a number of quantitative disciplines. For instance, the first chapter deals with non-parametric Bayesian inference via a recently developed framework known as kernel mean embedding which has had a significant influence in machine learning disciplines. The second chapter takes up non-parametric statistical methods for spatial field reconstruction and exceedance probability estimation based on Gaussian process-based models in the context of wireless sensor network data. The third chapter presents signal-processing methods applied to acoustic mood analysis based on music signal analysis. The fourth chapter covers models that are applicable to time series modeling in the domain of speech and language processing. This includes aspects of factor analysis, independent component an...

  19. Practical likelihood analysis for spatial generalized linear mixed models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonat, W. H.; Ribeiro, Paulo Justiniano

    2016-01-01

    We investigate an algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of spatial generalized linear mixed models based on the Laplace approximation. We compare our algorithm with a set of alternative approaches for two datasets from the literature. The Rhizoctonia root rot and the Rongelap are, respectiv......We investigate an algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of spatial generalized linear mixed models based on the Laplace approximation. We compare our algorithm with a set of alternative approaches for two datasets from the literature. The Rhizoctonia root rot and the Rongelap are...... of Laplace approximation include the computation of the maximized log-likelihood value, which can be used for model selection and tests, and the possibility to obtain realistic confidence intervals for model parameters based on profile likelihoods. The Laplace approximation also avoids the tuning...

  20. Spatial Development Modeling Methodology Application Possibilities in Vilnius

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Panavaitė

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to control the continued development of high-rise buildings and their irreversible visual impact on the overall silhouette of the city, the great cities of the world introduced new methodological principles to city’s spatial development models. These methodologies and spatial planning guidelines are focused not only on the controlled development of high-rise buildings, but on the spatial modelling of the whole city by defining main development criteria and estimating possible consequences. Vilnius city is no exception, however the re-establishment of independence of Lithuania caused uncontrolled urbanization process, so most of the city development regulations emerged as a consequence of unmanaged processes of investors’ expectations legalization. The importance of consistent urban fabric as well as conservation and representation of city’s most important objects gained attention only when an actual threat of overshadowing them with new architecture along with unmanaged urbanization in the city center or urban sprawl at suburbia, caused by land-use projects, had emerged. Current Vilnius’ spatial planning documents clearly define urban structure and key development principles, however the definitions are relatively abstract, causing uniform building coverage requirements for territories with distinct qualities and simplifying planar designs which do not meet quality standards. The overall quality of urban architecture is not regulated. The article deals with current spatial modeling methods, their individual parts, principles, the criteria for quality assessment and their applicability in Vilnius. The text contains an outline of possible building coverage regulations and impact assessment criteria for new development. The article contains a compendium of requirements for high-quality spatial planning and building design.

  1. Comparing spatial and temporal transferability of hydrological model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Sopan; Stieglitz, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Operational use of hydrological models requires the transfer of calibrated parameters either in time (for streamflow forecasting) or space (for prediction at ungauged catchments) or both. Although the effects of spatial and temporal parameter transfer on catchment streamflow predictions have been well studied individually, a direct comparison of these approaches is much less documented. In our view, such comparison is especially pertinent in the context of increasing appeal and popularity of the "trading space for time" approaches that are proposed for assessing the hydrological implications of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we compare three different schemes of parameter transfer, viz., temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal, using a spatially lumped hydrological model called EXP-HYDRO at 294 catchments across the continental United States. Results show that the temporal parameter transfer scheme performs best, with lowest decline in prediction performance (median decline of 4.2%) as measured using the Kling-Gupta efficiency metric. More interestingly, negligible difference in prediction performance is observed between the spatial and spatiotemporal parameter transfer schemes (median decline of 12.4% and 13.9% respectively). We further demonstrate that the superiority of temporal parameter transfer scheme is preserved even when: (1) spatial distance between donor and receiver catchments is reduced, or (2) temporal lag between calibration and validation periods is increased. Nonetheless, increase in the temporal lag between calibration and validation periods reduces the overall performance gap between the three parameter transfer schemes. Results suggest that spatiotemporal transfer of hydrological model parameters has the potential to be a viable option for climate change related hydrological studies, as envisioned in the "trading space for time" framework. However, further research is still needed to explore the relationship between spatial and temporal

  2. A statistical-dynamical modeling approach for the simulation of local paleo proxy records using GCM output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reichert, B.K.; Bengtsson, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Aakesson, O. [Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    1998-08-01

    Recent proxy data obtained from ice core measurements, dendrochronology and valley glaciers provide important information on the evolution of the regional or local climate. General circulation models integrated over a long period of time could help to understand the (external and internal) forcing mechanisms of natural climate variability. For a systematic interpretation of in situ paleo proxy records, a combined method of dynamical and statistical modeling is proposed. Local 'paleo records' can be simulated from GCM output by first undertaking a model-consistent statistical downscaling and then using a process-based forward modeling approach to obtain the behavior of valley glaciers and the growth of trees under specific conditions. The simulated records can be compared to actual proxy records in order to investigate whether e.g. the response of glaciers to climatic change can be reproduced by models and to what extent climate variability obtained from proxy records (with the main focus on the last millennium) can be represented. For statistical downscaling to local weather conditions, a multiple linear forward regression model is used. Daily sets of observed weather station data and various large-scale predictors at 7 pressure levels obtained from ECMWF reanalyses are used for development of the model. Daily data give the closest and most robust relationships due to the strong dependence on individual synoptic-scale patterns. For some local variables, the performance of the model can be further increased by developing seasonal specific statistical relationships. The model is validated using both independent and restricted predictor data sets. The model is applied to a long integration of a mixed layer GCM experiment simulating pre-industrial climate variability. The dynamical-statistical local GCM output within a region around Nigardsbreen glacier, Norway is compared to nearby observed station data for the period 1868-1993. Patterns of observed

  3. Integrating remote sensing and spatially explicit epidemiological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, Flavio; Knox, Allyn; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Bompangue, Didier; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    Spatially explicit epidemiological models are a crucial tool for the prediction of epidemiological patterns in time and space as well as for the allocation of health care resources. In addition they can provide valuable information about epidemiological processes and allow for the identification of environmental drivers of the disease spread. Most epidemiological models rely on environmental data as inputs. They can either be measured in the field by the means of conventional instruments or using remote sensing techniques to measure suitable proxies of the variables of interest. The later benefit from several advantages over conventional methods, including data availability, which can be an issue especially in developing, and spatial as well as temporal resolution of the data, which is particularly crucial for spatially explicit models. Here we present the case study of a spatially explicit, semi-mechanistic model applied to recurring cholera outbreaks in the Lake Kivu area (Democratic Republic of the Congo). The model describes the cholera incidence in eight health zones on the shore of the lake. Remotely sensed datasets of chlorophyll a concentration in the lake, precipitation and indices of global climate anomalies are used as environmental drivers. Human mobility and its effect on the disease spread is also taken into account. Several model configurations are tested on a data set of reported cases. The best models, accounting for different environmental drivers, and selected using the Akaike information criterion, are formally compared via cross validation. The best performing model accounts for seasonality, El Niño Southern Oscillation, precipitation and human mobility.

  4. Stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields models and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a graduate level introduction to various aspects of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields, this volume places a special emphasis on fundamental classes of models and algorithms as well as on their applications, for example in materials science, biology and genetics. This book has a strong focus on simulations and includes extensive codes in Matlab and R, which are widely used in the mathematical community. It can be regarded as a continuation of the recent volume 2068 of Lecture Notes in Mathematics, where other issues of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields were considered, with a focus on asymptotic methods.

  5. Spatial distribution of emissions to air – the SPREAD model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Gyldenkærne, Steen

    The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark’s obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long...... to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously...

  6. Evaluating the strategic capacity of collaborative spatial planning initiatives by the performance of its process, output and outcomes: The case of the southern Randstad Holland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harteveld, E.; Waterhout, B.; Broekhans, B.; Zonneveld, W.A.M.

    2015-01-01

    Spatial planning practices are constantly evolving to be more effective in a dynamic context. In the face of the latest developments, the practice of collaborative spatial planning through the formation of regional collaborations has emerged as the contemporary solution. The practice of working with

  7. Uniqueness of Petrov type D spatially inhomogeneous irrotational silent models

    CERN Document Server

    Apostolopoulos, P S; Apostolopoulos, Pantelis S; Carot, Jaume

    2006-01-01

    The consistency of the constraint with the evolution equations for spatially inhomogeneous and irrotational silent (SIIS) models of Petrov type I, demands that the former are preserved along the timelike congruence represented by the velocity of the dust fluid, leading to an infinite set of non-trivial constraints. This fact has been used to conjecture that the resulting models correspond to the spatially homogeneous (SH) models of Bianchi type I, at least for the case where the cosmological constant vanish. By exploiting the full set of the constraint equations as expressed in the 1+3 covariant formalism and using elements from the theory of the spacelike congruences, we provide a direct and simple proof of this conjecture for vacuum and dust fluid models, which shows that the Szekeres family of solutions represents the most general class of SIIS models. The suggested procedure also shows that, the uniqueness of the spatially inhomogeneous and irrotational models of Petrov type D is not affected by the prese...

  8. Robust Optimal Output Tracking Control of A Midwater Trawl System Based on T-S Fuzzy Nonlinear Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Hua; CHEN Ying-long; YANG Hua-yong

    2013-01-01

    A robust optimal output tracking control method for a midwater trawl system is investigated based on T-S fuzzy nonlinear model.A simplified nonlinear mathematical model is first employed to represent a midwater trawl system,and then a T-S fuzzy model is adopted to approximate the nonlinear system.Since the strong nonlinearities and the external disturbance of the trawling system,a mixed H2/H∞ fuzzy output tracking control strategy via T-S fuzzy system is proposed to regulate the trawl depth to follow a desired trajectory.The trawl depth can be regulated by adjusting the winch velocity automatically and the tracking error can be minimized according to the robust optimal criterion.In order to validate the proposed control method,a computer simulation is conducted.The simulation results indicate that the proposed fuzzy robust optimal controller make the trawl net rapidly follow the desired trajectory under the model uncertainties and the external disturbance caused by wave and current.

  9. Development and application of a spatial hydrology model of Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loftin, C.S.; Kitchens, W.M.; Ansay, N.

    2001-01-01

    The model described herein was used to assess effects of the Suwannee River sill (a low earthen dam constructed to impound the Suwannee River within the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge to eliminate wildfires) on the hydrologic environment of Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia. Developed with Arc/Info Macro Language routines in the GRID environment, the model distributes water in the swamp landscape using precipitation, inflow, evapotranspiration, outflow, and standing water. Water movement direction and rate are determined by the neighborhood topographic gradient, determined using survey grade Global Positioning Systems technology. Model data include flow rates from USGS monitored gauges, precipitation volumes and water levels measured within the swamp, and estimated evapotranspiration volumes spatially modified by vegetation type. Model output in semi-monthly time steps includes water depth, water surface elevation above mean sea level, and movement direction and volume. Model simulations indicate the sill impoundment affects 18 percent of the swamp during high water conditions when wildfires are scarce and has minimal spatial effect (increasing hydroperiods in less than 5 percent of the swamp) during low water and drought conditions when fire occurrence is high but precipitation and inflow volumes are limited.

  10. Spatial Temporal Modelling of Particulate Matter for Health Effects Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamm, N. A. S.

    2016-10-01

    Epidemiological studies of the health effects of air pollution require estimation of individual exposure. It is not possible to obtain measurements at all relevant locations so it is necessary to predict at these space-time locations, either on the basis of dispersion from emission sources or by interpolating observations. This study used data obtained from a low-cost sensor network of 32 air quality monitoring stations in the Dutch city of Eindhoven, which make up the ILM (innovative air (quality) measurement system). These stations currently provide PM10 and PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 10 and 2.5 m in diameter), aggregated to hourly means. The data provide an unprecedented level of spatial and temporal detail for a city of this size. Despite these benefits the time series of measurements is characterized by missing values and noisy values. In this paper a space-time analysis is presented that is based on a dynamic model for the temporal component and a Gaussian process geostatistical for the spatial component. Spatial-temporal variability was dominated by the temporal component, although the spatial variability was also substantial. The model delivered accurate predictions for both isolated missing values and 24-hour periods of missing values (RMSE = 1.4 μg m-3 and 1.8 μg m-3 respectively). Outliers could be detected by comparison to the 95% prediction interval. The model shows promise for predicting missing values, outlier detection and for mapping to support health impact studies.

  11. Space in multi-agent systems modelling spatial processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Rapant

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Need for modelling of spatial processes arise in the spehere of geoinformation systems in the last time. Some processes (espetially natural ones can be modeled by means of using external tools, e. g. for modelling of contaminant transport in the environment. But in the case of socio-economic processes suitable tools interconnected with GIS are still in quest of reserch and development. One of the candidate technologies are so called multi-agent systems. Their theory is developed quite well, but they lack suitable means for dealing with space. This article deals with this problem and proposes solution for the field of a road transport modelling.

  12. A spatial operator algebra for manipulator modeling and control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, G.; Kreutz, K.; Milman, M.

    1988-01-01

    A powerful new spatial operator algebra for modeling, control, and trajectory design of manipulators is discussed along with its implementation in the Ada programming language. Applications of this algebra to robotics include an operator representation of the manipulator Jacobian matrix; the robot dynamical equations formulated in terms of the spatial algebra, showing the complete equivalence between the recursive Newton-Euler formulations to robot dynamics; the operator factorization and inversion of the manipulator mass matrix which immediately results in O(N) recursive forward dynamics algorithms; the joint accelerations of a manipulator due to a tip contact force; the recursive computation of the equivalent mass matrix as seen at the tip of a manipulator; and recursive forward dynamics of a closed chain system. Finally, additional applications and current research involving the use of the spatial operator algebra are discussed in general terms.

  13. Classification of missing values in spatial data using spin models

    CERN Document Server

    Žukovič, Milan; 10.1103/PhysRevE.80.011116

    2013-01-01

    A problem of current interest is the estimation of spatially distributed processes at locations where measurements are missing. Linear interpolation methods rely on the Gaussian assumption, which is often unrealistic in practice, or normalizing transformations, which are successful only for mild deviations from the Gaussian behavior. We propose to address the problem of missing values estimation on two-dimensional grids by means of spatial classification methods based on spin (Ising, Potts, clock) models. The "spin" variables provide an interval discretization of the process values, and the spatial correlations are captured in terms of interactions between the spins. The spins at the unmeasured locations are classified by means of the "energy matching" principle: the correlation energy of the entire grid (including prediction sites) is estimated from the sample-based correlations. We investigate the performance of the spin classifiers in terms of computational speed, misclassification rate, class histogram an...

  14. Spatial-angular modeling of ground-based biaxial lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agishev, Ravil R.

    1997-10-01

    Results of spatial-angular LIDAR modeling based on an efficiency criterion introduced are represented. Their analysis shows that a low spatial-angular efficiency of traditional VIS and NIR systems is a main cause of a low S/BR ratio at the photodetector input. It determines the considerable measurements errors and the following low accuracy of atmospheric optical parameters retrieval. As we have shown, the most effective protection against intensive sky background radiation for ground-based biaxial LIDAR's consist in forming of their angular field according to spatial-angular efficiency criterion G. Some effective approaches to high G-parameter value achievement to achieve the receiving system optimization are discussed.

  15. Atlantis Modeled Output Data for the Coral Reef Ecosystems of Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis Coral Reef Ecosystem Model has been developed and an added coral module to the Atlantis framework has been validated. The model is...

  16. Impact of rainfall spatial distribution on rainfall-runoff modelling efficiency and initial soil moisture conditions estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tramblay

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A good knowledge of rainfall is essential for hydrological operational purposes such as flood forecasting. The objective of this paper was to analyze, on a relatively large sample of flood events, how rainfall-runoff modeling using an event-based model can be sensitive to the use of spatial rainfall compared to mean areal rainfall over the watershed. This comparison was based not only on the model's efficiency in reproducing the flood events but also through the estimation of the initial conditions by the model, using different rainfall inputs. The initial conditions of soil moisture are indeed a key factor for flood modeling in the Mediterranean region. In order to provide a soil moisture index that could be related to the initial condition of the model, the soil moisture output of the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM model developed by Météo-France was used. This study was done in the Gardon catchment (545 km2 in South France, using uniform or spatial rainfall data derived from rain gauge and radar for 16 flood events. The event-based model considered combines the SCS runoff production model and the Lag and Route routing model. Results show that spatial rainfall increases the efficiency of the model. The advantage of using spatial rainfall is marked for some of the largest flood events. In addition, the relationship between the model's initial condition and the external predictor of soil moisture provided by the SIM model is better when using spatial rainfall, in particular when using spatial radar data with R2 values increasing from 0.61 to 0.72.

  17. Linear and Non-linear Multi-Input Multi-Output Model Predictive Control of Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muayad Al-Qaisy

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In this article, multi-input multi-output (MIMO linear model predictive controller (LMPC based on state space model and nonlinear model predictive controller based on neural network (NNMPC are applied on a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR. The idea is to have a good control system that will be able to give optimal performance, reject high load disturbance, and track set point change. In order to study the performance of the two model predictive controllers, MIMO Proportional-Integral-Derivative controller (PID strategy is used as benchmark. The LMPC, NNMPC, and PID strategies are used for controlling the residual concentration (CA and reactor temperature (T. NNMPC control shows a superior performance over the LMPC and PID controllers by presenting a smaller overshoot and shorter settling time.

  18. Modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linard, Catherine; Tatem, Andrew J; Gilbert, Marius

    2013-10-01

    The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving exceptionally high urban expansion rates that will induce significant socio-economic, environmental and health changes. In order to prepare for these changes, it is important to better understand urban growth dynamics in Africa and better predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions. Previous work on urban expansion has been carried out at the city level or at the global level with a relatively coarse 5-10 km resolution. The main objective of the present paper was to develop a modelling approach at an intermediate scale in order to identify factors that influence spatial patterns of urban expansion in Africa. Boosted Regression Tree models were developed to predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions in every large African city. Urban change data between circa 1990 and circa 2000 available for 20 large cities across Africa were used as training data. Results showed that the urban land in a 1 km neighbourhood and the accessibility to the city centre were the most influential variables. Results obtained were generally more accurate than results obtained using a distance-based urban expansion model and showed that the spatial pattern of small, compact and fast growing cities were easier to simulate than cities with lower population densities and a lower growth rate. The simulation method developed here will allow the production of spatially detailed urban expansion forecasts for 2020 and 2025 for Africa, data that are increasingly required by global change modellers.

  19. Modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linard, Catherine; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gilbert, Marius

    2013-01-01

    The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving exceptionally high urban expansion rates that will induce significant socio-economic, environmental and health changes. In order to prepare for these changes, it is important to better understand urban growth dynamics in Africa and better predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions. Previous work on urban expansion has been carried out at the city level or at the global level with a relatively coarse 5–10 km resolution. The main objective of the present paper was to develop a modelling approach at an intermediate scale in order to identify factors that influence spatial patterns of urban expansion in Africa. Boosted Regression Tree models were developed to predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions in every large African city. Urban change data between circa 1990 and circa 2000 available for 20 large cities across Africa were used as training data. Results showed that the urban land in a 1 km neighbourhood and the accessibility to the city centre were the most influential variables. Results obtained were generally more accurate than results obtained using a distance-based urban expansion model and showed that the spatial pattern of small, compact and fast growing cities were easier to simulate than cities with lower population densities and a lower growth rate. The simulation method developed here will allow the production of spatially detailed urban expansion forecasts for 2020 and 2025 for Africa, data that are increasingly required by global change modellers. PMID:25152552

  20. Indoor 3D Route Modeling Based On Estate Spatial Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.; Wen, Y.; Jiang, J.; Huang, W.

    2014-04-01

    Indoor three-dimensional route model is essential for space intelligence navigation and emergency evacuation. This paper is motivated by the need of constructing indoor route model automatically and as far as possible. By comparing existing building data sources, this paper firstly explained the reason why the estate spatial management data is chosen as the data source. Then, an applicable method of construction three-dimensional route model in a building is introduced by establishing the mapping relationship between geographic entities and their topological expression. This data model is a weighted graph consist of "node" and "path" to express the spatial relationship and topological structure of a building components. The whole process of modelling internal space of a building is addressed by two key steps: (1) each single floor route model is constructed, including path extraction of corridor using Delaunay triangulation algorithm with constrained edge, fusion of room nodes into the path; (2) the single floor route model is connected with stairs and elevators and the multi-floor route model is eventually generated. In order to validate the method in this paper, a shopping mall called "Longjiang New City Plaza" in Nanjing is chosen as a case of study. And the whole building space is constructed according to the modelling method above. By integrating of existing path finding algorithm, the usability of this modelling method is verified, which shows the indoor three-dimensional route modelling method based on estate spatial data in this paper can support indoor route planning and evacuation route design very well.

  1. Input-Output Modeling and Control of the Departure Process of Congested Airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujet, Nicolas; Delcaire, Bertrand; Feron, Eric

    2003-01-01

    A simple queueing model of busy airport departure operations is proposed. This model is calibrated and validated using available runway configuration and traffic data. The model is then used to evaluate preliminary control schemes aimed at alleviating departure traffic congestion on the airport surface. The potential impact of these control strategies on direct operating costs, environmental costs and overall delay is quantified and discussed.

  2. Mathematical modeling of output power in RF-excited CO2 waveguide lasers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    Theoretical analysis model has been established for CO2 laser to describe the process of dynamic emission in the electrooptically Q-switched laser .The electron excitation and the energy-transfer of vibration level and the rotational relaxation of rotational levels are described. The comparison between this model and a set of coupled rat equations model are discussed.

  3. Modeling the impact of spatial relationships on horizontal curve safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findley, Daniel J; Hummer, Joseph E; Rasdorf, William; Zegeer, Charles V; Fowler, Tyler J

    2012-03-01

    The curved segments of roadways are more hazardous because of the additional centripetalforces exerted on a vehicle, driver expectations, and other factors. The safety of a curve is dependent on various factors, most notably by geometric factors, but the location of a curve in relation to other curves is also thought to influence the safety of those curves because of a driver's expectation to encounter additional curves. The link between an individual curve's geometric characteristics and its safety performance has been established, but spatial considerations are typically not included in a safety analysis. The spatial considerations included in this research consisted of four components: distance to adjacent curves, direction of turn of the adjacent curves, and radius and length of the adjacent curves. The primary objective of this paper is to quantify the spatial relationship between adjacent horizontal curves and horizontal curve safety using a crash modification factor. Doing so enables a safety professional to more accurately estimate safety to allocate funding to reduce or prevent future collisions and more efficiently design new roadway sections to minimize crash risk where there will be a series of curves along a route. The most important finding from this research is the statistical significance of spatial considerations for the prediction of horizontal curve safety. The distances to adjacent curves were found to be a reliable predictor of observed collisions. This research recommends a model which utilizes spatial considerations for horizontal curve safety prediction in addition to current Highway Safety Manual prediction capabilities using individual curve geometric features.

  4. Depositional ''cyclicity'' on carbonate platforms: Real-world limits on computer-model output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boss, S.K.; Neumann, A.C. (Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)); Rasmussen, K.A. (Northern Virginia Community Coll., Annandale, VA (United States))

    1994-03-01

    Computer-models which attempt to define interactions among dynamic parameters believed to influence the development of ''cyclic'' carbonate platform sequences have been popularized over the past few years. These models typically utilize vectors for subsidence (constant) and cyclical (sinusoidal) eustatic sea-level to create accommodation space which is filled by sedimentation (depth-dependent rates) following an appropriate lag time (non-depositional episode during initial platform flooding). Since these models are intended to reflect general principles of cyclic carbonate deposition, it is instructive to test their predictive utility by comparing typical model outputs with an actively evolving depositional cycle on a modern carbonate platform where rates of subsidence, eustatic sea-level and sediment accumulation are known. Holocene carbonate deposits across northern Great Bahama Bank provide such an ideal test-platform for model-data comparisons. On Great Bahama Bank, formation of accommodation space depends on eustatic sea-level rise because tectonic subsidence is very slow. Contrary to typical model input parameters, however, the rate of formation of accommodation space varies irregularly across the bank-top because irregular bank-top topography (produced by subaerial erosion and karstification) results in differential flooding of the platform surface. Results of this comparison indicate that typical computer-model input variables (subsidence, sea-level, sedimentation, lag-time) and output depositional geometries are poorly correlated with real depositional patterns across Great Bahama Bank. Since other modern carbonate platforms and ancient carbonate sequences display similarly complex stratigraphies, it is suggested that present computer-modeling results have little predictive value for stratigraphic interpretation.

  5. Fragmentation of urban forms and the environmental consequences: results from a high-spatial resolution model system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, U. W.; Wang, Z. S.

    2008-10-01

    Each city has its unique urban form. The importance of urban form on sustainable development has been recognized in recent years. Traditionally, air quality modelling in a city is in a mesoscale with grid resolution of kilometers, regardless of its urban form. This paper introduces a GIS-based air quality and noise model system developed to study the built environment of highly compact urban forms. Compared with traditional mesoscale air quality model system, the present model system has a higher spatial resolution down to individual buildings along both sides of the street. Applying the developed model system in the Macao Peninsula with highly compact urban forms, the average spatial resolution of input and output data is as high as 174 receptor points per km2. Based on this input/output dataset with a high spatial resolution, this study shows that even the highly compact urban forms can be fragmented into a very small geographic scale of less than 3 km2. This is due to the significant temporal variation of urban development. The variation of urban form in each fragment in turn affects air dispersion, traffic condition, and thus air quality and noise in a measurable scale.

  6. Chaotic and stable perturbed maps: 2-cycles and spatial models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braverman, E.; Haroutunian, J.

    2010-06-01

    As the growth rate parameter increases in the Ricker, logistic and some other maps, the models exhibit an irreversible period doubling route to chaos. If a constant positive perturbation is introduced, then the Ricker model (but not the classical logistic map) experiences period doubling reversals; the break of chaos finally gives birth to a stable two-cycle. We outline the maps which demonstrate a similar behavior and also study relevant discrete spatial models where the value in each cell at the next step is defined only by the values at the cell and its nearest neighbors. The stable 2-cycle in a scalar map does not necessarily imply 2-cyclic-type behavior in each cell for the spatial generalization of the map.

  7. Neuromorphic model of magnocellular and parvocellular visual paths: spatial resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aguirre, Rolando C [Departamento de Luminotecnia, Luz y Vision, FACET, Universidad Nacional de Tucuman, Tucuman (Argentina); Felice, Carmelo J [Departamento de BioingenierIa, FACET, Universidad Nacional de Tucuman Argentina, Tucuman (Argentina); Colombo, Elisa M [Departamento de Luminotecnia, Luz y Vision, FACET, Universidad Nacional de Tucuman, Tucuman (Argentina)

    2007-11-15

    Physiological studies of the human retina show the existence of at least two visual information processing channels, the magnocellular and the parvocellular ones. Both have different spatial, temporal and chromatic features. This paper focuses on the different spatial resolution of these two channels. We propose a neuromorphic model, so that they match the retina's physiology. Considering the Deutsch and Deutsch model (1992), we propose two configurations (one for each visual channel) of the connection between the retina's different cell layers. The responses of the proposed model have similar behaviour to those of the visual cells: each channel has an optimum response corresponding to a given stimulus size which decreases for larger or smaller stimuli. This size is bigger for the magno path than for the parvo path and, in the end, both channels produce a magnifying of the borders of a stimulus.

  8. Resources use and greenhouse gas emissions in urban economy: Ecological input-output modeling for Beijing 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, S. Y.; Chen, H.; Li, S. C.

    2010-10-01

    The embodiment of natural resources and greenhouse gas emissions for the urban economy of Beijing economy 2002 by a physical balance modeling is carried out based on an extension of the economic input-output table into an ecological one integrating the economy with its various environmental driving forces. Included resources and greenhouse gas emissions belong to six categories as energy resources in terms of primary energy and secondary energy; water resource; emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O; exergy in terms of energy sources, biological resources and minerals; and solar emergy and cosmic emergy in terms of climate resources, soil, energy sources, and minerals.

  9. Matlab/Simulink Modeling of Four-leg Voltage Source Inverter With Fundamental Inverter output Voltages Vector Observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riyadh G. Omar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Four-leg voltage source inverter is an evolution of the three-leg inverter, and was ought about by the need to handle the non-linear and unbalanced loads. In this work Matlab/ Simulink model is presented using space vector modulation technique. Simulation results for worst conditions of unbalanced linear and non-linear loads are obtained. Observation for the continuity of the fundamental inverter output voltages vector in stationary coordinate is detected for better performance. Matlab programs are executed in block functions to perform switching vector selection and space vector switching.

  10. Spatial probabilistic pulsatility model for enhancing photoplethysmographic imaging systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amelard, Robert; Clausi, David A.; Wong, Alexander

    2016-11-01

    Photoplethysmographic imaging (PPGI) is a widefield noncontact biophotonic technology able to remotely monitor cardiovascular function over anatomical areas. Although spatial context can provide insight into physiologically relevant sampling locations, existing PPGI systems rely on coarse spatial averaging with no anatomical priors for assessing arterial pulsatility. Here, we developed a continuous probabilistic pulsatility model for importance-weighted blood pulse waveform extraction. Using a data-driven approach, the model was constructed using a 23 participant sample with a large demographic variability (11/12 female/male, age 11 to 60 years, BMI 16.4 to 35.1 kg·m-2). Using time-synchronized ground-truth blood pulse waveforms, spatial correlation priors were computed and projected into a coaligned importance-weighted Cartesian space. A modified Parzen-Rosenblatt kernel density estimation method was used to compute the continuous resolution-agnostic probabilistic pulsatility model. The model identified locations that consistently exhibited pulsatility across the sample. Blood pulse waveform signals extracted with the model exhibited significantly stronger temporal correlation (W=35,pbpm].

  11. Mutational Analyses of HAMP Helices Suggest a Dynamic Bundle Model of Input-Output Signaling in Chemoreceptors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qin; Ames, Peter; Parkinson, John S.

    2009-01-01

    SUMMARY To test the gearbox model of HAMP signaling in the E. coli serine receptor, Tsr, we generated a series of amino acid replacements at each residue of the AS1 and AS2 helices. The residues most critical for Tsr function defined hydrophobic packing faces consistent with a 4-helix bundle. Suppression patterns of helix lesions conformed to the the predicted packing layers in the bundle. Although the properties and patterns of most AS1 and AS2 lesions were consistent with both proposed gearbox structures, some mutational features specifically indicate the functional importance of an x-da bundle over an alternative a-d bundle. These genetic data suggest that HAMP signaling could simply involve changes in the stability of its x-da bundle. We propose that Tsr HAMP controls output signals by modulating destabilizing phase clashes between the AS2 helices and the adjoining kinase control helices. Our model further proposes that chemoeffectors regulate HAMP bundle stability through a control cable connection between the transmembrane segments and AS1 helices. Attractant stimuli, which cause inward piston displacements in chemoreceptors, should reduce cable tension, thereby stabilizing the HAMP bundle. This study shows how transmembrane signaling and HAMP input-output control could occur without the helix rotations central to the gearbox model. PMID:19656294

  12. Formation of regular spatial patterns in ratio-dependent predator-prey model driven by spatial colored-noise

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Quan-Xing; Jin, Zhen

    2006-01-01

    Results are reported concerning the formation of spatial patterns in the two-species ratio-dependent predator-prey model driven by spatial colored-noise. The results show that there is a critical value with respect to the intensity of spatial noise for this system when the parameters are in the Turing space, above which the regular spatial patterns appear in two dimensions, but under which there are not regular spatial patterns produced. In particular, we investigate in two-dimensional space ...

  13. Embodied water analysis for Hebei Province, China by input-output modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Siyuan; Han, Mengyao; Wu, Xudong; Wu, Xiaofang; Li, Zhi; Xia, Xiaohua; Ji, Xi

    2016-12-01

    With the accelerating coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, regional economic integration is recognized as a national strategy. As water scarcity places Hebei Province in a dilemma, it is of critical importance for Hebei Province to balance water resources as well as make full use of its unique advantages in the transition to sustainable development. To our knowledge, related embodied water accounting analysis has been conducted for Beijing and Tianjin, while similar works with the focus on Hebei are not found. In this paper, using the most complete and recent statistics available for Hebei Province, the embodied water use in Hebei Province is analyzed in detail. Based on input-output analysis, it presents a complete set of systems accounting framework for water resources. In addition, a database of embodied water intensity is proposed which is applicable to both intermediate inputs and final demand. The result suggests that the total amount of embodied water in final demand is 10.62 billion m3, of which the water embodied in urban household consumption accounts for more than half. As a net embodied water importer, the water embodied in the commodity trade in Hebei Province is 17.20 billion m3. The outcome of this work implies that it is particularly urgent to adjust industrial structure and trade policies for water conservation, to upgrade technology and to improve water utilization. As a result, to relieve water shortages in Hebei Province, it is of crucial importance to regulate the balance of water use within the province, thus balancing water distribution in the various industrial sectors.

  14. Markov Modeling of Component Fault Growth Over A Derived Domain of Feasible Output Control Effort Modifications

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper introduces a novel Markov process formulation of stochastic fault growth modeling, in order to facilitate the development and analysis of...

  15. Testing in a Random Effects Panel Data Model with Spatially Correlated Error Components and Spatially Lagged Dependent Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming He

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a random effects panel data model with both spatially correlated error components and spatially lagged dependent variables. We focus on diagnostic testing procedures and derive Lagrange multiplier (LM test statistics for a variety of hypotheses within this model. We first construct the joint LM test for both the individual random effects and the two spatial effects (spatial error correlation and spatial lag dependence. We then provide LM tests for the individual random effects and for the two spatial effects separately. In addition, in order to guard against local model misspecification, we derive locally adjusted (robust LM tests based on the Bera and Yoon principle (Bera and Yoon, 1993. We conduct a small Monte Carlo simulation to show the good finite sample performances of these LM test statistics and revisit the cigarette demand example in Baltagi and Levin (1992 to illustrate our testing procedures.

  16. Modeling the Effect of P-N Junction Depth on the Output of Planer and Rectangular Textured Solar Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Jahanshah

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: High cost of the solar cells is one of the important limitations in extensively using of the photovoltaic panels. Thin monocrystalline silicon solar cell could be reduce the cost but lost the absorption efficiency. Surface texturing help to enhance absorption. Using of advance texturing by diffraction grating was suggested for high absorption. It is necessary to investigate the scattering effect of diffraction grating with other solar cell parameter for optimization. In first step we concentrate on p-n junction position impact by modeling. Approach: The effect of position of p-n junction on the output current for both micro rectangular texturing and planer surface in solar cell has been investigated by ray tracing. Modeling of nine pairs solar cells with the same texture and planer surfaces but with different p-n junction position are done by using Atlas software. The output short current is a criterion for determining of efficiency performance. By comparing of the short current for each pair we was find the impacts of texturing and p-n junction depth on the monocrystalline thin film. Results: Light scattering due to diffraction grating inside the silicon with rectangular depth of 5 µm and a range of 5-40 µm p-n junction depths are investigated. The difference of short current in textured to bare silicon showed the enhancement from 4-8 µA when the p-n junction depths vary from 5-45 µm. Conclusions: Comparison of short current output confirms the correlation between p-n junction depth and texturing. Advanced texturing improve the solar cell efficiency but the effectiveness change with the p-n junction depth and need a simultaneous optimization for getting the high efficiency solar cell.

  17. Modified Spatial Channel Model for MIMO Wireless Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pekka Kyösti

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The third generation partnership Project's (3GPP spatial channel model (SCM is a stochastic channel model for MIMO systems. Due to fixed subpath power levels and angular directions, the SCM model does not show the degree of variation which is encountered in real channels. In this paper, we propose a modified SCM model which has random subpath powers and directions and still produces Laplace shape angular power spectrum. Simulation results on outage MIMO capacity with basic and modified SCM models show that the modified SCM model gives constantly smaller capacity values. Accordingly, it seems that the basic SCM gives too small correlation between MIMO antennas. Moreover, the variance in capacity values is larger using the proposed SCM model. Simulation results were supported by the outage capacity results from a measurement campaign conducted in the city centre of Oulu, Finland.

  18. Modeling and output tracking of transverse flux permanent magnet machines using high gain observer and RBF neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, H R; Babazadeh, A

    2005-10-01

    This paper deals with modeling and adaptive output tracking of a transverse flux permanent magnet machine as a nonlinear system with unknown nonlinearities by utilizing high gain observer and radial basis function networks. The proposed model is developed based on computing the permeance between rotor and stator using quasiflux tubes. Based on this model, the techniques of feedback linearization and Hinfinity control are used to design an adaptive control law for compensating the unknown nonlinear parts, such as the effect of cogging torque, as a disturbance is decreased onto the rotor angle and angular velocity tracking performances. Finally, the capability of the proposed method in tracking both the angle and the angular velocity is shown in the simulation results.

  19. An Evacuation Emergency Response Model Coupling Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability Output.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-10

    concentration contours coupled with the SMI evacuation model were calculated by using the MATHEW and ADPIC codes. The evacuation emergency response...2 M ATH EW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 2 ADPIC ...CDC 7600 computer within a matter of minutes MATHEW and ADPIC codes. These two models after the computer center is notified, are described briefly

  20. Spatial Modeling of Iron Transformations Within Artificial Soil Aggregates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kausch, M.; Meile, C.; Pallud, C.

    2008-12-01

    Structured soils exhibit significant variations in transport characteristics at the aggregate scale. Preferential flow occurs through macropores while predominantly diffusive exchange takes place in intra-aggregate micropores. Such environments characterized by mass transfer limitations are conducive to the formation of small-scale chemical gradients and promote strong spatial variation in processes controlling the fate of redox-sensitive elements such as Fe. In this study, we present a reactive transport model used to spatially resolve iron bioreductive processes occurring within a spherical aggregate at the interface between advective and diffusive domains. The model is derived from current conceptual models of iron(hydr)oxide (HFO) transformations and constrained by literature and experimental data. Data were obtained from flow-through experiments on artificial soil aggregates inoculated with Shewanella putrefaciens strain CN32, and include the temporal evolution of the bulk solution composition, as well as spatial information on the final solid phase distribution within aggregates. With all iron initially in the form of ferrihydrite, spatially heterogeneous formation of goethite/lepidocrocite, magnetite and siderite was observed during the course of the experiments. These transformations were reproduced by the model, which ascribes a central role to divalent iron as a driver of HFO transformations and master variable in the rate laws of the considered reaction network. The predicted dissolved iron breakthrough curves also match the experimental ones closely. Thus, the computed chemical concentration fields help identify factors governing the observed trends in the solid phase distribution patterns inside the aggregate. Building on a mechanistic description of transformation reactions, fluid flow and solute transport, the model was able to describe the observations and hence illustrates the importance of small-scale gradients and dynamics of bioreductive

  1. Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

    2015-02-01

    Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors.

  2. Spatial distribution of emissions to air - the SPREAD model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plejdrup, M.S.; Gyldenkaerne, S.

    2011-04-15

    The National Environmental Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University, completes the annual national emission inventories for greenhouse gases and air pollutants according to Denmark's obligations under international conventions, e.g. the climate convention, UNFCCC and the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution, CLRTAP. NERI has developed a model to distribute emissions from the national emission inventories on a 1x1 km grid covering the Danish land and sea territory. The new spatial high resolution distribution model for emissions to air (SPREAD) has been developed according to the requirements for reporting of gridded emissions to CLRTAP. Spatial emission data is e.g. used as input for air quality modelling, which again serves as input for assessment and evaluation of health effects. For these purposes distributions with higher spatial resolution have been requested. Previously, a distribution on the 17x17 km EMEP grid has been set up and used in research projects combined with detailed distributions for a few sectors or sub-sectors e.g. a distribution for emissions from road traffic on 1x1 km resolution. SPREAD is developed to generate improved spatial emission data for e.g. air quality modelling in exposure studies. SPREAD includes emission distributions for each sector in the Danish inventory system; stationary combustion, mobile sources, fugitive emissions from fuels, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture and waste. This model enables generation of distributions for single sectors and for a number of sub-sectors and single sources as well. This report documents the methodologies in this first version of SPREAD and presents selected results. Further, a number of potential improvements for later versions of SPREAD are addressed and discussed. (Author)

  3. Database modeling to integrate macrobenthos data in Spatial Data Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Alberto Quintanilha

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Coastal zones are complex areas that include marine and terrestrial environments. Besides its huge environmental wealth, they also attracts humans because provides food, recreation, business, and transportation, among others. Some difficulties to manage these areas are related with their complexity, diversity of interests and the absence of standardization to collect and share data to scientific community, public agencies, among others. The idea to organize, standardize and share this information based on Web Atlas is essential to support planning and decision making issues. The construction of a spatial database integrating the environmental business, to be used on Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI is illustrated by a bioindicator that indicates the quality of the sediments. The models show the phases required to build Macrobenthos spatial database based on Santos Metropolitan Region as a reference. It is concluded that, when working with environmental data the structuring of knowledge in a conceptual model is essential for their subsequent integration into the SDI. During the modeling process it can be noticed that methodological issues related to the collection process may obstruct or prejudice the integration of data from different studies of the same area. The development of a database model, as presented in this study, can be used as a reference for further research with similar goals.

  4. Tapered composite likelihood for spatial max-stable models

    KAUST Repository

    Sang, Huiyan

    2014-05-01

    Spatial extreme value analysis is useful to environmental studies, in which extreme value phenomena are of interest and meaningful spatial patterns can be discerned. Max-stable process models are able to describe such phenomena. This class of models is asymptotically justified to characterize the spatial dependence among extremes. However, likelihood inference is challenging for such models because their corresponding joint likelihood is unavailable and only bivariate or trivariate distributions are known. In this paper, we propose a tapered composite likelihood approach by utilizing lower dimensional marginal likelihoods for inference on parameters of various max-stable process models. We consider a weighting strategy based on a "taper range" to exclude distant pairs or triples. The "optimal taper range" is selected to maximize various measures of the Godambe information associated with the tapered composite likelihood function. This method substantially reduces the computational cost and improves the efficiency over equally weighted composite likelihood estimators. We illustrate its utility with simulation experiments and an analysis of rainfall data in Switzerland.

  5. Spatial Modelling of Sediment Transport over the Upper Citarum Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poerbandono

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses set up of a spatial model applied in Geographic Information System (GIS environment for predicting annual erosion rate and sediment yield of a watershed. The study area is situated in the Upper Citarum Catchment of West Java. Annual sediment yield is considered as product of erosion rate and sediment delivery ratio to be modelled under similar modeling tool. Sediment delivery ratio is estimated on the basis of sediment resident time. The modeling concept is based on the calculation of water flow velocity through sub-catchment surface, which is controlled by topography, rainfall, soil characteristics and various types of land use. Relating velocity to known distance across digital elevation model, sediment resident time can be estimated. Data from relevance authorities are used. Bearing in mind limited knowledge of some governing factors due to lack of observation, the result has shown the potential of GIS for spatially modeling regional sediment transport. Validation of model result is carried out by evaluating measured and computed total sediment yield at the main outlet. Computed total sediment yields for 1994 and 2001 are found to be 1.96×106 and 2.10×106tons/year. They deviate roughly 54 and 8% with respect to those measured in the field. Model response due to land use change observed in 2001 and 1994 is also recognised. Under presumably constant rainfall depth, an increase of overall average annual erosion rate of 11% resulted in an increase of overall average sediment yield of 7%.

  6. Supplementary Material for: Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data

    KAUST Repository

    Krupskii, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.

  7. Think continuous: Markovian Gaussian models in spatial statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Simpson, Daniel; Rue, Håvard

    2011-01-01

    Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are frequently used as computationally efficient models in spatial statistics. Unfortunately, it has traditionally been difficult to link GMRFs with the more traditional Gaussian random field models as the Markov property is difficult to deploy in continuous space. Following the pioneering work of Lindgren et al. (2011), we expound on the link between Markovian Gaussian random fields and GMRFs. In particular, we discuss the theoretical and practical aspects of fast computation with continuously specified Markovian Gaussian random fields, as well as the clear advantages they offer in terms of clear, parsimonious and interpretable models of anisotropy and non-stationarity.

  8. Spatial emission modelling for residential wood combustion in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Brandt, Jørgen

    2016-01-01

    Residential wood combustion (RWC) is a major contributor to atmospheric pollution especially for particulate matter. Air pollution has significant impact on human health, and it is therefore important to know the human exposure. For this purpose, it is necessary with a detailed high resolution...... model with the developed weighting factors (76 ton PM2.5) is in good agreement with the case study (95 ton PM2.5), and that the new model has improved the spatial emission distribution significantly compared to the previous model (284 ton PM2.5). Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was done...

  9. An operational method and device for the determination of an output signal in a selected spatial section of an information processing system

    CERN Document Server

    Zafiris, Oliver

    2009-01-01

    Current strategies in system science with a focus on neuroscience do differ in their methodological approach when exploring and trying to analyze a system in order to detect supposed underlying principle processes in its inherent actions, which one might would call rules or laws. The here suggested procedure and measuring device, performs a mapping of characteristic parameters of the regional output signal, of the supposed structural properties, onto a selected regional part of the information processing system, in which the output signal and its characteristics occur. Explicitly it is pointed out here: Here are not considered input signals, which for instance might have an influence upon (few) nuclear kernels of the atom, electrons, protons, spins of these atomic structures or substructures, or phonons, or which in general represent the physical basis for example of NMR-Physics (NMR = nuclear magnetic resonance) or solid state physics. Examples for the type of input signals considered here are visual, olfact...

  10. Governmentally amplified output volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funashima, Yoshito

    2016-11-01

    Predominant government behavior is decomposed by frequency into several periodic components: updating cycles of infrastructure, Kuznets cycles, fiscal policy over business cycles, and election cycles. Little is known, however, about the theoretical impact of such cyclical behavior in public finance on output fluctuations. Based on a standard neoclassical growth model, this study intends to examine the frequency at which public investment cycles are relevant to output fluctuations. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between output volatility and length of cycle in public investment. This implies that periodic behavior in public investment at a certain frequency range can cause aggravated output resonance. Moreover, we present an empirical analysis to test the theoretical implication, using the U.S. data in the period from 1968 to 2015. The empirical results suggest that such resonance phenomena change from low to high frequency.

  11. An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veie, Kathrine Lausted; Panduro, Toke Emil

    Hedonic models are subject to spatially correlated errors which are a symptom of omitted spatial variables, mis-specification or mismeasurement. Methods have been developed to address this problem through the use of spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects. However, often spatial correlation...

  12. Representing spatial information in a computational model for network management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaisdell, James H.; Brownfield, Thomas F.

    1994-01-01

    While currently available relational database management systems (RDBMS) allow inclusion of spatial information in a data model, they lack tools for presenting this information in an easily comprehensible form. Computer-aided design (CAD) software packages provide adequate functions to produce drawings, but still require manual placement of symbols and features. This project has demonstrated a bridge between the data model of an RDBMS and the graphic display of a CAD system. It is shown that the CAD system can be used to control the selection of data with spatial components from the database and then quickly plot that data on a map display. It is shown that the CAD system can be used to extract data from a drawing and then control the insertion of that data into the database. These demonstrations were successful in a test environment that incorporated many features of known working environments, suggesting that the techniques developed could be adapted for practical use.

  13. Bioenergetics model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...

  14. Food web model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...

  15. SIMULATING MODEL OF SYSTEM FOR MAXIMUM OUTPUT POWER OF SOLAR BATTERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Majid Al-Khatib

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulating model and algorithm for control of electric power converter of a solar battery are proposed in the paper. Control device of D.C. step-down converter with pulse-width modulation is designed on microprocessor basis. Simulating model permits to investigate various operational modes of a solar battery, demonstrates a process with maximum power mode and is characterized by convenient user’s interface.

  16. An exactly solvable, spatial model of mutation accumulation in cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Chay; Nowak, Martin A.; Waclaw, Bartlomiej

    2016-12-01

    One of the hallmarks of cancer is the accumulation of driver mutations which increase the net reproductive rate of cancer cells and allow them to spread. This process has been studied in mathematical models of well mixed populations, and in computer simulations of three-dimensional spatial models. But the computational complexity of these more realistic, spatial models makes it difficult to simulate realistically large and clinically detectable solid tumours. Here we describe an exactly solvable mathematical model of a tumour featuring replication, mutation and local migration of cancer cells. The model predicts a quasi-exponential growth of large tumours, even if different fragments of the tumour grow sub-exponentially due to nutrient and space limitations. The model reproduces clinically observed tumour growth times using biologically plausible rates for cell birth, death, and migration rates. We also show that the expected number of accumulated driver mutations increases exponentially in time if the average fitness gain per driver is constant, and that it reaches a plateau if the gains decrease over time. We discuss the realism of the underlying assumptions and possible extensions of the model.

  17. A stock-flow consistent input-output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Matthew; Hartley, Brian; Richters, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    By synthesizing stock-flow consistent models, input-output models, and aspects of ecological macroeconomics, a method is developed to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. This paper highlights the linkages between the physical environment and the economic system by emphasizing the role of the energy industry. A conceptual model is developed in general form with an arbitrary number of sectors, while emphasizing connections with the agent-based, econophysics, and complexity economics literature. First, we use the model to challenge claims that 0% interest rates are a necessary condition for a stationary economy and conduct a stability analysis within the parameter space of interest rates and consumption parameters of an economy in stock-flow equilibrium. Second, we analyze the role of energy price shocks in contributing to recessions, incorporating several propagation and amplification mechanisms. Third, implied heat emissions from energy conversion and the effect of anthropogenic heat flux on climate change are considered in light of a minimal single-layer atmosphere climate model, although the model is only implicitly, not explicitly, linked to the economic model.

  18. A marginal revenue equilibrium model for spatial water allocation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王劲峰; 刘昌明; 王智勇; 于静洁

    2002-01-01

    The outside water is transported into the water-shorted area. It is allocated among many sub-areas that composed the water-shorted area, in order to maximize the total benefit from the input water for the areas. This paper presents a model for spatial water allocation based on the marginal revenue of water utilization, taking the six southern districts of Hebei Province as an example.

  19. Spatial memory impairments in a prediabetic rat model

    OpenAIRE

    Soares,E.; Prediger, R. D.; Nunes, S.; A.A. Castro; Viana, S .D.; Lemos, C.; C. M. Souza; Agostinho, P; Cunha, R. A.; E. Carvalho; Ribeiro, C. A. Fontes; Reis, F.; PEREIRA, F. C.

    2013-01-01

    Diabetes is associated with an increased risk for brain disorders, namely cognitive impairments associated with hippocampal dysfunction underlying diabetic encephalopathy. However, the impact of a prediabetic state on cognitive function is unknown. Therefore, we now investigated whether spatial learning and memory deficits and the underlying hippocampal dysfunction were already present in a prediabetic animal model. Adult Wistar rats drinking high-sucrose (HSu) diet (35% sucrose solution duri...

  20. Rule-based spatial modeling with diffusing, geometrically constrained molecules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lohel Maiko

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We suggest a new type of modeling approach for the coarse grained, particle-based spatial simulation of combinatorially complex chemical reaction systems. In our approach molecules possess a location in the reactor as well as an orientation and geometry, while the reactions are carried out according to a list of implicitly specified reaction rules. Because the reaction rules can contain patterns for molecules, a combinatorially complex or even infinitely sized reaction network can be defined. For our implementation (based on LAMMPS, we have chosen an already existing formalism (BioNetGen for the implicit specification of the reaction network. This compatibility allows to import existing models easily, i.e., only additional geometry data files have to be provided. Results Our simulations show that the obtained dynamics can be fundamentally different from those simulations that use classical reaction-diffusion approaches like Partial Differential Equations or Gillespie-type spatial stochastic simulation. We show, for example, that the combination of combinatorial complexity and geometric effects leads to the emergence of complex self-assemblies and transportation phenomena happening faster than diffusion (using a model of molecular walkers on microtubules. When the mentioned classical simulation approaches are applied, these aspects of modeled systems cannot be observed without very special treatment. Further more, we show that the geometric information can even change the organizational structure of the reaction system. That is, a set of chemical species that can in principle form a stationary state in a Differential Equation formalism, is potentially unstable when geometry is considered, and vice versa. Conclusions We conclude that our approach provides a new general framework filling a gap in between approaches with no or rigid spatial representation like Partial Differential Equations and specialized coarse-grained spatial