Sample records for model output hydrometeors

  1. Modelling of streamer ignition and propagation in the system of two approaching hydrometeors (United States)

    Jansky, J.; Pasko, V. P.


    The lightning initiation in low thundercloud fields represents an unsolved problem in lightning discharge physics. One of the initial conditions required for formation of a hot leader channel is initiation of non-thermal streamer discharges. Streamers can be initiated from electron avalanches, however, the problem of existence of an electric field strong enough for streamer initiation in thunderclouds is still open. The maximum electric field in thunderstorms measured by balloons is typically 3-4 kV cm-1 atm-1, that is significantly smaller than the breakdown electric field needed for avalanche multiplication of electrons Ek≃28.7 kV cm-1 atm-1. One of the possible explanations for the streamer corona initiation is that hydrometeors greatly intensify the local electric field by at least an order of magnitude to initiate an electron avalanche. It was suggested that a particle pair or chain create more favorable conditions for initiation of lightning discharge than a single precipitation particle in low electric fields. Recently Cai et al. [GRL, 44, 5758-5765, 2017] analyzed the ignition conditions for two hydrometeors of same radii. In the present work we use streamer fluid model to study streamer initiation scenarios in a system of two hydrometeors with different radii. When the hydrometeors are approaching the Townsend discharge may develop first between them. Then the Townsend discharge transforms to streamer and two hydrometeors connect electrically, which leads to increase of the electric field on the outside hemispheres of hydrometeors. This increase of field for two particles of same radii was analyzed by Cooray et al. [Proceedings of 24th International Conference on Lightning Protection, Birmingham, United Kingdom, 1998]. The combination of small and large hydrometeors leads to higher enhancement on the outside of small hydrometeor. Simulation results show that streamer ignites there and propagates away from two hydrometeors. The streamer ignites at fields

  2. Streamer inception from hydrometeors as a stochastic process with a particle-based model (United States)

    Rutjes, Casper; Dubinova, Anna; Ebert, Ute; Teunissen, Jannis; Buitink, Stijn; Scholten, Olaf; Trihn, Gia


    In thunderstorms, streamers (as precursors for lightning leaders) can be initiated from hydrometeors (droplets, graupel, ice needles, etc.) which enhance the thundercloud electric field to values above electric breakdown; and initial electrons may come from extensive air showers [1]. Typically, streamer inception from hydrometeors is theoretically studied with deterministic fluid simulations (i.e. drift-diffusion-reaction coupled with Poisson), see [1, 2, 3] and references therein. However, electrons will only multiply in the area above breakdown, which is of the order of a cubic millimeter for hydrometeors of sub-centimeter scale. Initial electron densities, even in extreme extensive air shower events, do not exceed 10 per cubic millimeter. Hence only individual electron avalanches - with their intrinsically random nature - are entering the breakdown area sequentially. On these scales, a deterministic fluid description is thus not valid. Therefore, we developed a new stochastic particle-based model to study the behavior of the system described above, to calculate the probability of streamer inception, for given hydrometeor, electric field and initial electron density. Results show that the discharge starts with great jitter and usually off the symmetry axis, demanding stochastic approach in full 3D for streamer inception in realistic thunderstorm conditions. The developed software will be made publically available as an open source project. [1] Dubinova et al. 2015. Phys. Rev. Lett. 115(1), 015002. [2] Liu et al. 2012. Phys. Rev. Lett. 109(2), 025002. [3] Babich et al. 2016. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 121, 6393-6403.

  3. CMAQ Model Output (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ and CMAQ-VBS model output. This dataset is not publicly accessible because: Files too large. It can be accessed through the following means: via EPA's NCC tape...

  4. WRF Model Output (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains WRF model output. There are three months of data: July 2012, July 2013, and January 2013. For each month, several simulations were made: A...

  5. Investigation of hydrometeor classification uncertainties through the POLARRIS polarimetric radar simulator (United States)

    Dolan, B.; Rutledge, S. A.; Barnum, J. I.; Matsui, T.; Tao, W. K.; Iguchi, T.


    POLarimetric Radar Retrieval and Instrument Simulator (POLARRIS) is a framework that has been developed to simulate radar observations from cloud resolving model (CRM) output and subject model data and observations to the same retrievals, analysis and visualization. This framework not only enables validation of bulk microphysical model simulated properties, but also offers an opportunity to study the uncertainties associated with retrievals such as hydrometeor classification (HID). For the CSU HID, membership beta functions (MBFs) are built using a set of simulations with realistic microphysical assumptions about axis ratio, density, canting angles, size distributions for each of ten hydrometeor species. These assumptions are tested using POLARRIS to understand their influence on the resulting simulated polarimetric data and final HID classification. Several of these parameters (density, size distributions) are set by the model microphysics, and therefore the specific assumptions of axis ratio and canting angle are carefully studied. Through these sensitivity studies, we hope to be able to provide uncertainties in retrieved polarimetric variables and HID as applied to CRM output. HID retrievals assign a classification to each point by determining the highest score, thereby identifying the dominant hydrometeor type within a volume. However, in nature, there is rarely just one a single hydrometeor type at a particular point. Models allow for mixing ratios of different hydrometeors within a grid point. We use the mixing ratios from CRM output in concert with the HID scores and classifications to understand how the HID algorithm can provide information about mixtures within a volume, as well as calculate a confidence in the classifications. We leverage the POLARRIS framework to additionally probe radar wavelength differences toward the possibility of a multi-wavelength HID which could utilize the strengths of different wavelengths to improve HID classifications. With

  6. Model output: fact or artefact? (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke


    As a third-year PhD-student, I relatively recently entered the wonderful world of scientific Hydrology. A science that has many pillars that directly impact society, for example with the prediction of hydrological extremes (both floods and drought), climate change, applications in agriculture, nature conservation, drinking water supply, etcetera. Despite its demonstrable societal relevance, hydrology is often seen as a science between two stools. Like Klemeš (1986) stated: "By their academic background, hydrologists are foresters, geographers, electrical engineers, geologists, system analysts, physicists, mathematicians, botanists, and most often civil engineers." Sometimes it seems that the engineering genes are still present in current hydrological sciences, and this results in pragmatic rather than scientific approaches for some of the current problems and challenges we have in hydrology. Here, I refer to the uncertainty in hydrological modelling that is often neglected. For over thirty years, uncertainty in hydrological models has been extensively discussed and studied. But it is not difficult to find peer-reviewed articles in which it is implicitly assumed that model simulations represent the truth rather than a conceptualization of reality. For instance in trend studies, where data is extrapolated 100 years ahead. Of course one can use different forcing datasets to estimate the uncertainty of the input data, but how to prevent that the output is not a model artefact, caused by the model structure? Or how about impact studies, e.g. of a dam impacting river flow. Measurements are often available for the period after dam construction, so models are used to simulate river flow before dam construction. Both are compared in order to qualify the effect of the dam. But on what basis can we tell that the model tells us the truth? Model validation is common nowadays, but validation only (comparing observations with model output) is not sufficient to assume that a

  7. Hydrometeor classification from polarimetric radar measurements: a clustering approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Grazioli


    Full Text Available A data-driven approach to the classification of hydrometeors from measurements collected with polarimetric weather radars is proposed. In a first step, the optimal number of hydrometeor classes (nopt that can be reliably identified from a large set of polarimetric data is determined. This is done by means of an unsupervised clustering technique guided by criteria related both to data similarity and to spatial smoothness of the classified images. In a second step, the nopt clusters are assigned to the appropriate hydrometeor class by means of human interpretation and comparisons with the output of other classification techniques. The main innovation in the proposed method is the unsupervised part: the hydrometeor classes are not defined a priori, but they are learned from data. The approach is applied to data collected by an X-band polarimetric weather radar during two field campaigns (from which about 50 precipitation events are used in the present study. Seven hydrometeor classes (nopt = 7 have been found in the data set, and they have been identified as light rain (LR, rain (RN, heavy rain (HR, melting snow (MS, ice crystals/small aggregates (CR, aggregates (AG, and rimed-ice particles (RI.

  8. Consistency Between Convection Allowing Model Output and Passive Microwave Satellite Observations (United States)

    Bytheway, J. L.; Kummerow, C. D.


    Observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite were used along with precipitation forecasts from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model to assess and interpret differences between observed and modeled storms. Using a feature-based approach, precipitating objects were identified in both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Stage IV multisensor precipitation product and HRRR forecast at lead times of 1, 2, and 3 h at valid times corresponding to GPM overpasses. Precipitating objects were selected for further study if (a) the observed feature occurred entirely within the swath of the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and (b) the HRRR model predicted it at all three forecast lead times. Output from the HRRR model was used to simulate microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs), which were compared to those observed by the GMI. Simulated Tbs were found to have biases at both the warm and cold ends of the distribution, corresponding to the stratiform/anvil and convective areas of the storms, respectively. Several experiments altered both the simulation microphysics and hydrometeor classification in order to evaluate potential shortcomings in the model's representation of precipitating clouds. In general, inconsistencies between observed and simulated brightness temperatures were most improved when transferring snow water content to supercooled liquid hydrometeor classes.

  9. Research Output, Socialization, and the Biglan Model. (United States)

    Creswell, John W.; Bean, John P.


    A test of the Biglan model of faculty subcultures using measures of research output and tests of the model controlling for the effects of faculty socialization are described. The Biglan model is found to be valid, and the distinctiveness of the Biglan groups appears to increase with the socialization of faculty into subject areas. (Author/MLW)

  10. Problems in Modelling Charge Output Accelerometers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomczyk Krzysztof


    Full Text Available The paper presents major issues associated with the problem of modelling change output accelerometers. The presented solutions are based on the weighted least squares (WLS method using transformation of the complex frequency response of the sensors. The main assumptions of the WLS method and a mathematical model of charge output accelerometers are presented in first two sections of this paper. In the next sections applying the WLS method to estimation of the accelerometer model parameters is discussed and the associated uncertainties are determined. Finally, the results of modelling a PCB357B73 charge output accelerometer are analysed in the last section of this paper. All calculations were executed using the MathCad software program. The main stages of these calculations are presented in Appendices A−E.

  11. A Support Vector Machine Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm for Dual-Polarization Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoletta Roberto


    Full Text Available An algorithm based on a support vector machine (SVM is proposed for hydrometeor classification. The training phase is driven by the output of a fuzzy logic hydrometeor classification algorithm, i.e., the most popular approach for hydrometer classification algorithms used for ground-based weather radar. The performance of SVM is evaluated by resorting to a weather scenario, generated by a weather model; the corresponding radar measurements are obtained by simulation and by comparing results of SVM classification with those obtained by a fuzzy logic classifier. Results based on the weather model and simulations show a higher accuracy of the SVM classification. Objective comparison of the two classifiers applied to real radar data shows that SVM classification maps are spatially more homogenous (textural indices, energy, and homogeneity increases by 21% and 12% respectively and do not present non-classified data. The improvements found by SVM classifier, even though it is applied pixel-by-pixel, can be attributed to its ability to learn from the entire hyperspace of radar measurements and to the accurate training. The reliability of results and higher computing performance make SVM attractive for some challenging tasks such as its implementation in Decision Support Systems for helping pilots to make optimal decisions about changes inthe flight route caused by unexpected adverse weather.

  12. Multi-model MPC with output feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Perez


    Full Text Available In this work, a new formulation is presented for the model predictive control (MPC of a process system that is represented by a finite set of models, each one corresponding to a different operating point. The general case is considered of systems with stable and integrating outputs in closed-loop with output feedback. For this purpose, the controller is based on a non-minimal order model where the state is built with the measured outputs and the manipulated inputs of the control system. Therefore, the state can be considered as perfectly known and, consequently, there is no need to include a state observer in the control loop. This property of the proposed modeling approach is convenient to extend previous stability results of the closed loop system with robust MPC controllers based on state feedback. The controller proposed here is based on the solution of two optimization problems that are solved sequentially at the same time step. The method is illustrated with a simulated example of the process industry. The rigorous simulation of the control of an adiabatic flash of a multi-component hydrocarbon mixture illustrates the application of the robust controller. The dynamic simulation of this process is performed using EMSO - Environment Model Simulation and Optimization. Finally, a comparison with a linear MPC using a single model is presented.

  13. Modelling Waste Output from Trout Farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frier, J. O.; From, J.; Larsen, Torben


    to calculate waste discharge from existing and planned aquaculture activities. A special purpose is simulating outcome of waste water treatment and altered feeding programmes. Different submodels must be applied for P, N, and organics, as well as for the different phases of food and waste treatment. Altogether......The aim of waste modelling in aquaculture is to provide tools for simulating input, transformation, output and subsidiary degradation in recipients of organic compounds, nitrogen, and phosphorus. The direct purpose of this modelling is to make it possible for caretakers and water authorities...

  14. Radon progeny in hydro-meteors at the earth's surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voltaggio, M.


    During atmospheric thermal inversions, dew and hoarfrost concentrate gamma emitting radionuclides of the short-lived 222 Rn progeny ( 214 Pb and 214 Bi), causing an increase in the total natural gamma background from the ground. To highlight this phenomenon, a volcanic zone of high 222 Rn flux was studied during the winter season 2010-11. High-specific short-lived radon progeny activities up to 122 Bq g -1 were detected in hydro-meteors forming at the earth's surface (ESHs), corresponding to a mean increase of up to 17 % of the normal gamma background value. A theoretical model, depending on radon flux from soil and predicting the radon progeny concentrations in hydro-meteors forming at the ESHs is presented. The comparison between model and field data shows a good correspondence. Around nuclear power plants or in nuclear facilities that use automatic NaI or CsI total gamma spectroscopy systems for monitoring radioactive contamination, hydro-meteors forming at the ESHs in sites with a high radon flux could represent a relevant source of false alarms of radioactive contamination. (authors)

  15. A Ground-Based Doppler Radar and Micropulse Lidar Forward Simulator for GCM Evaluation of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds: Moving Forward Towards an Apples-to-apples Comparison of Hydrometeor Phase (United States)

    Lamer, K.; Fridlind, A. M.; Ackerman, A. S.; Kollias, P.; Clothiaux, E. E.


    An important aspect of evaluating Artic cloud representation in a general circulation model (GCM) consists of using observational benchmarks which are as equivalent as possible to model output in order to avoid methodological bias and focus on correctly diagnosing model dynamical and microphysical misrepresentations. However, current cloud observing systems are known to suffer from biases such as limited sensitivity, and stronger response to large or small hydrometeors. Fortunately, while these observational biases cannot be corrected, they are often well understood and can be reproduced in forward simulations. Here a ground-based millimeter wavelength Doppler radar and micropulse lidar forward simulator able to interface with output from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE GCM is presented. ModelE stratiform hydrometeor fraction, mixing ratio, mass-weighted fall speed and effective radius are forward simulated to vertically-resolved profiles of radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity and spectrum width as well as lidar backscatter and depolarization ratio. These forward simulated fields are then compared to Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) ground-based observations to assess cloud vertical structure (CVS). Model evalution of Arctic mixed-phase cloud would also benefit from hydrometeor phase evaluation. While phase retrieval from synergetic observations often generates large uncertainties, the same retrieval algorithm can be applied to observed and forward-simulated radar-lidar fields, thereby producing retrieved hydrometeor properties with potentially the same uncertainties. Comparing hydrometeor properties retrieved in exactly the same way aims to produce the best apples-to-apples comparisons between GCM ouputs and observations. The use of a comprenhensive ground-based forward simulator coupled with a hydrometeor classification retrieval algorithm provides a new perspective for GCM evaluation of Arctic mixed

  16. Invariant Imbedding T-Matrix Method for Axial Symmetric Hydrometeors with Extreme Aspect Ratios (United States)

    Pelissier, C.; Clune, T.; Kuo, K. S.; Munchak, S. J.; Adams, I. S.


    The single-scattering properties (SSPs) of hydrometeors are the fundamental quantities for physics-based precipitation retrievals. Thus, efficient computation of their electromagnetic scattering is of great value. Whereas the semi-analytical T-Matrix methods are likely the most efficient for nonspherical hydrometeors with axial symmetry, they are not suitable for arbitrarily shaped hydrometeors absent of any significant symmetry, for which volume integral methods such as those based on Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) are required. Currently the two leading T-matrix methods are the Extended Boundary Condition Method (EBCM) and the Invariant Imbedding T-matrix Method incorporating Lorentz-Mie Separation of Variables (IITM+SOV). EBCM is known to outperform IITM+SOV for hydrometeors with modest aspect ratios. However, in cases when aspect ratios become extreme, such as needle-like particles with large height to diameter values, EBCM fails to converge. Such hydrometeors with extreme aspect ratios are known to be present in solid precipitation and their SSPs are required to model the radiative responses accurately. In these cases, IITM+SOV is shown to converge. An efficient, parallelized C++ implementation for both EBCM and IITM+SOV has been developed to conduct a performance comparison between EBCM, IITM+SOV, and DDSCAT (a popular implementation of DDA). We present the comparison results and discuss details. Our intent is to release the combined ECBM & IITM+SOV software to the community under an open source license.

  17. A didactic Input-Output model for territorial ecology analyses


    Garry Mcdonald


    This report describes a didactic input-output modelling framework created jointly be the team at REEDS, Universite de Versailles and Dr Garry McDonald, Director, Market Economics Ltd. There are three key outputs associated with this framework: (i) a suite of didactic input-output models developed in Microsoft Excel, (ii) a technical report (this report) which describes the framework and the suite of models1, and (iii) a two week intensive workshop dedicated to the training of REEDS researcher...

  18. A two stage data envelopment analysis model with undesirable output (United States)

    Shariff Adli Aminuddin, Adam; Izzati Jaini, Nur; Mat Kasim, Maznah; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd


    The dependent relationship among the decision making units (DMU) is usually assumed to be non-existent in the development of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. The dependency can be represented by the multi-stage DEA model, where the outputs from the precedent stage will be the inputs for the latter stage. The multi-stage DEA model evaluate both the efficiency score for each stages and the overall efficiency of the whole process. The existing multi stage DEA models do not focus on the integration with the undesirable output, in which the higher input will generate lower output unlike the normal desirable output. This research attempts to address the inclusion of such undesirable output and investigate the theoretical implication and potential application towards the development of multi-stage DEA model.

  19. NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the original model output data submissions from the 24 terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) that participated in the North American...

  20. NACP Site: Terrestrial Biosphere Model Output Data in Original Format (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the original model output data submissions from the 24 terrestrial biosphere models (TBM) that participated in the North American Carbon...

  1. Stock assessment model outputs for ICCAT (International) managed species (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Includes outputs from the various models run in the evaluation of stock status for species managed by the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic...

  2. The multi-factor energy input–output model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guevara, Zeus; Domingos, Tiago


    Energy input–output analysis (EIO analysis) is a noteworthy tool for the analysis of the role of energy in the economy. However, it has relied on models that provide a limited description of energy flows in the economic system and do not allow an adequate analysis of energy efficiency. This paper introduces a novel energy input–output model, the multi-factor energy input–output model (MF-EIO model), which is obtained from a partitioning of a hybrid-unit input–output system of the economy. This model improves on current models by describing the energy flows according to the processes of energy conversion and the levels of energy use in the economy. It characterizes the vector of total energy output as a function of seven factors: two energy efficiency indicators; two characteristics of end-use energy consumption; and three economic features of the rest of the economy. Moreover, it is consistent with the standard model for EIO analysis, i.e., the hybrid-unit model. This paper also introduces an approximate version of the MF-EIO model, which is equivalent to the former under equal energy prices for industries and final consumers, but requires less data processing. The latter is composed by two linked models: a model of the energy sector in physical units, and a model of the rest of the economy in monetary units. In conclusion, the proposed modelling framework improves EIO analysis and extends EIO applications to the accounting for energy efficiency of the economy. - Highlights: • A novel energy input–output model is introduced. • It allows a more adequate analysis of energy flows than current models. • It describes energy flows according to processes of energy conversion and use. • It can be used for other environmental applications (material use and emissions). • An approximate version of the model is introduced, simpler and less data intensive.

  3. Space market model space industry input-output model (United States)

    Hodgin, Robert F.; Marchesini, Roberto


    The goal of the Space Market Model (SMM) is to develop an information resource for the space industry. The SMM is intended to contain information appropriate for decision making in the space industry. The objectives of the SMM are to: (1) assemble information related to the development of the space business; (2) construct an adequate description of the emerging space market; (3) disseminate the information on the space market to forecasts and planners in government agencies and private corporations; and (4) provide timely analyses and forecasts of critical elements of the space market. An Input-Output model of market activity is proposed which are capable of transforming raw data into useful information for decision makers and policy makers dealing with the space sector.

  4. System convergence in transport models: algorithms efficiency and output uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rich, Jeppe; Nielsen, Otto Anker


    of this paper is to analyse convergence performance for the external loop and to illustrate how an improper linkage between the converging parts can lead to substantial uncertainty in the final output. Although this loop is crucial for the performance of large-scale transport models it has not been analysed......-scale in the Danish National Transport Model (DNTM). It is revealed that system convergence requires that either demand or supply is without random noise but not both. In that case, if MSA is applied to the model output with random noise, it will converge effectively as the random effects are gradually dampened...... in the MSA process. In connection to DNTM it is shown that MSA works well when applied to travel-time averaging, whereas trip averaging is generally infected by random noise resulting from the assignment model. The latter implies that the minimum uncertainty in the final model output is dictated...

  5. The role of charged ice hydrometeors in lightning initiation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babich, L. P.; Bochkov, E. I.; Neubert, Torsten


    In connection with the lightning initiation problem, we consider positive streamer formation around charged, needle-shaped ice hydrometeors in an external electric field. We present results of numerical simulations of the streamer discharges that include the ice dielectric polarization and conduc......In connection with the lightning initiation problem, we consider positive streamer formation around charged, needle-shaped ice hydrometeors in an external electric field. We present results of numerical simulations of the streamer discharges that include the ice dielectric polarization...

  6. Appropriatie spatial scales to achieve model output uncertainty goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Melching, Charles S.; Chen, Xiaohong; Chen, Yongqin; Xia, Jun; Zhang, Hailun


    Appropriate spatial scales of hydrological variables were determined using an existing methodology based on a balance in uncertainties from model inputs and parameters extended with a criterion based on a maximum model output uncertainty. The original methodology uses different relationships between

  7. Linearised model for PV panel power output variation with changes ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)



    Oct 26, 2017 ... which can be the PV panel current or the real power. In this work a linearised model is derived to relate the change in system input, namely: irradiance and temperature, with its output, namely: array current and power. The proposed model is experimentally verified with tests run on PV panels, when they are ...

  8. Improving the Subgrid-Scale Representation of Hydrometeors and Microphysical Feedback Effects Using a Multivariate PDF (United States)

    Griffin, Brian M.

    The subgrid-scale representation of hydrometeor fields is important for calculating microphysical process rates. In order to represent subgrid-scale variability, the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) parameterization uses a multivariate Probability Density Function (PDF). In addition to vertical velocity, temperature, and moisture fields, the PDF includes hydrometeor fields. Previously, each hydrometeor field was assumed to follow a multivariate single lognormal distribution. Now, in order to better represent the distribution of hydrometeors, two new multivariate PDFs are formulated and introduced in part one of this two-part project. The new PDFs represent hydrometeors using either a delta-lognormal or a delta-double-lognormal shape. The two new PDF distributions, plus the previous single lognormal shape, are compared to histograms of data taken from Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) of a precipitating cumulus case, a drizzling stratocumulus case, and a deep convective case. Finally, the warm microphysical process rates produced by the different hydrometeor PDFs are compared to the same process rates produced by the LES. Microphysics processes have feedback effects on moisture and heat content. Not only do these processes influence mean values, but also variability and fluxes of moisture and heat content. For example, evaporation of rain below cloud base may produce cold pools. This evaporative cooling may increase the variability in temperature in the below-cloud layer. Likewise, rain production in the moistest part of cloud tends to decrease variability in cloud water. These effects are usually not included in most coarse-resolution weather and climate models, or else are crudely parameterized. In part two of this two-part project, the microphysical effects on moisture and heat content are parameterized using the PDF method. This approach is based on predictive, horizontally-averaged equations for the variances, covariances, and fluxes of moisture and heat

  9. Investigation of solar photovoltaic module power output by various models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakhrani, A.Q.; Othman, A.K.; Rigit, A.R.H.; Baini, R.


    This paper aims to investigate the power output of a solar photovoltaic module by various models and to formulate a suitable model for predicting the performance of solar photovoltaic modules. The model was used to correct the configurations of solar photovoltaic systems for sustainable power supply. Different types of models namely the efficiency, power, fill factor and current-voltage characteristic curve models have been reviewed. It was found that the examined models predicted a 40% yield of the rated power in cloudy weather conditions and up to 80% in clear skies. The models performed well in terms of electrical efficiency in cloudy days if the influence of low irradiance were incorporated. Both analytical and numerical methods were employed in the formulation of improved model which gave +- 2% error when compared with the rated power output of solar photovoltaic module. The proposed model is more practical in terms of number of variables used and acceptable performance in humid atmospheres. Therefore, it could be useful for the estimation of power output of the solar photovoltaic systems in Sarawak region. (author)

  10. The GFDL Data Portal: a Doorway to Sharing Model Outputs (United States)

    Obrien, K. M.; Hankin, S.; Callahan, J.; Balaji, V.; Schweitzer, R.; McLean, J.; Wei, Y.; Manke, A.


    In response to increasing community interest in the output of models run at GFDL, we have embarked upon the design of a data portal for sharing numerical model output. Effective sharing of model output requires software standards and tools and then utilizing those tools to build data portals. Among the tools that the GFDL data portal will utilize is the Live Access Server (LAS). LAS is a visualization and analysis tool which allows: presentation of a multitude of variables in an orderly way by easily defining and customizing arbitrary hierarchies; location of datasets and variables of interest from among thousands offered without navigating the complete dataset hierarchy; easy intercomparison of model results ( The OPeNDAP framework ( will also be a key component in the GFDL data portal. This framework provides local data access to remote data, regardless of the remote storage format, and will allow for intercomparison of model results between groups of users. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) is a partner in the NASA-funded development of the Earth Systems Modeling Framework (ESMF) collaboration ( The ESMF is an effort to greatly improve coordination in the advancement of climate models through the development of a community framework to couple model components ( Working with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP,, the goal is to develop a software infrastructure using agreed-upon standards to provide distributed access to observed and simulated data from climate and weather communities. In this presentation we will discuss the GFDL data portal, the web site(s) through which many model outputs from GFDL are accessible, and its underlying standards and tools.

  11. A Hierarchical Multi-Output Nearest Neighbor Model for Multi-Output Dependence Learning


    Morris, Richard G.; Martinez, Tony; Smith, Michael R.


    Multi-Output Dependence (MOD) learning is a generalization of standard classification problems that allows for multiple outputs that are dependent on each other. A primary issue that arises in the context of MOD learning is that for any given input pattern there can be multiple correct output patterns. This changes the learning task from function approximation to relation approximation. Previous algorithms do not consider this problem, and thus cannot be readily applied to MOD problems. To pe...

  12. Modeling the power output of piezoelectric energy harvesters

    KAUST Repository

    Al Ahmad, Mahmoud


    Design of experiments and multiphysics analyses were used to develop a parametric model for a d 33-based cantilever. The analysis revealed that the most significant parameters influencing the resonant frequency are the supporting layer thickness, piezoelectric layer thickness, and cantilever length. On the other hand, the most important factors affecting the charge output arethe piezoelectric thickness and the interdigitated electrode dimensions. The accuracy of the developed model was confirmed and showed less than 1% estimation error compared with a commercial simulation package. To estimate the power delivered to a load, the electric current output from the piezoelectric generator was calculated. A circuit model was built and used to estimate the power delivered to a load, which compared favorably to experimentally published power data on actual cantilevers of similar dimensions. © 2011 TMS.

  13. PIXE analysis of atmospheric aerosol and hydrometeor particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groeneveld, K.O.; Hofmann, D.; Georgii, H.W.


    Atmospheric aerosol and hydrometeor particles act decisively on our weather, climate and thereby on all living conditions on Earth. Particle induced X-ray emission (PIXE) analysis has been demonstrated to be an extremely valuable tool for quantitative and qualitative elemental analysis of aerosol particles and hydrometeors. Reliability and detection limits of PIXE are determined, including comparison with other techniques. Aerosol particles are collected on a global scale in ground stations, or by ships and by planes. Correlation between wind direction and elemental composition of atmospheric aerosols, elemental particle size distributions of the tropospheric aerosol, aerosol elemental composition in particle size fractions in the case of long range transport, transport pathways of pollution aerosol, and trace element content precipitation are discussed. Hydrometeors were studied in the form of rain, snow, fog, dew and frost. The time dependence of the melting process of snow was studied in detail, in particular the washout phenomena of impurity ions. (orig.)

  14. Impact of model defect and experimental uncertainties on evaluated output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neudecker, D.; Capote, R.; Leeb, H.


    One of the current major problems in nuclear data evaluation is the unreasonably small evaluated uncertainties often obtained. These small uncertainties are partly attributed to missing correlations of experimental uncertainties as well as to deficiencies of the model employed for the prior information. In this article, both uncertainty sources are included in an evaluation of 55 Mn cross-sections for incident neutrons. Their impact on the evaluated output is studied using a prior obtained by the Full Bayesian Evaluation Technique and a prior obtained by the nuclear model program EMPIRE. It is shown analytically and by means of an evaluation that unreasonably small evaluated uncertainties can be obtained not only if correlated systematic uncertainties of the experiment are neglected but also if prior uncertainties are smaller or about the same magnitude as the experimental ones. Furthermore, it is shown that including model defect uncertainties in the evaluation of 55 Mn leads to larger evaluated uncertainties for channels where the model is deficient. It is concluded that including correlated experimental uncertainties is equally important as model defect uncertainties, if the model calculations deviate significantly from the measurements. -- Highlights: • We study possible causes of unreasonably small evaluated nuclear data uncertainties. • Two different formulations of model defect uncertainties are presented and compared. • Smaller prior than experimental uncertainties cause too small evaluated ones. • Neglected correlations of experimental uncertainties cause too small evaluated ones. • Including model defect uncertainties in the prior improves the evaluated output

  15. Evacuation emergency response model coupling atmospheric release advisory capability output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, L.C.; Lawver, B.S.; Buckley, D.W.; Finn, S.P.; Swenson, J.B.


    A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) sponsored project to develop a coupled set of models between those of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) system and candidate evacuation models is discussed herein. This report describes the ARAC system and discusses the rapid computer code developed and the coupling with ARAC output. The computer code is adapted to the use of color graphics as a means to display and convey the dynamics of an emergency evacuation. The model is applied to a specific case of an emergency evacuation of individuals surrounding the Rancho Seco Nuclear Power Plant, located approximately 25 miles southeast of Sacramento, California. The graphics available to the model user for the Rancho Seco example are displayed and noted in detail. Suggestions for future, potential improvements to the emergency evacuation model are presented

  16. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)


    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  17. A Dual-Wavelength Radar Technique to Detect Hydrometeor Phases (United States)

    Liao, Liang; Meneghini, Robert


    This study is aimed at investigating the feasibility of a Ku- and Ka-band space/air-borne dual wavelength radar algorithm to discriminate various phase states of precipitating hydrometeors. A phase-state classification algorithm has been developed from the radar measurements of snow, mixed-phase and rain obtained from stratiform storms. The algorithm, presented in the form of the look-up table that links the Ku-band radar reflectivities and dual-frequency ratio (DFR) to the phase states of hydrometeors, is checked by applying it to the measurements of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Airborne Precipitation Radar Second Generation (APR-2). In creating the statistically-based phase look-up table, the attenuation corrected (or true) radar reflectivity factors are employed, leading to better accuracy in determining the hydrometeor phase. In practice, however, the true radar reflectivities are not always available before the phase states of the hydrometeors are determined. Therefore, it is desirable to make use of the measured radar reflectivities in classifying the phase states. To do this, a phase-identification procedure is proposed that uses only measured radar reflectivities. The procedure is then tested using APR-2 airborne radar data. Analysis of the classification results in stratiform rain indicates that the regions of snow, mixed-phase and rain derived from the phase-identification algorithm coincide reasonably well with those determined from the measured radar reflectivities and linear depolarization ratio (LDR).

  18. Solid hydrometeor classification and riming degree estimation from pictures collected with a Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (United States)

    Praz, Christophe; Roulet, Yves-Alain; Berne, Alexis


    A new method to automatically classify solid hydrometeors based on Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) images is presented. For each individual image, the method relies on the calculation of a set of geometric and texture-based descriptors to simultaneously identify the hydrometeor type (among six predefined classes), estimate the degree of riming and detect melting snow. The classification tasks are achieved by means of a regularized multinomial logistic regression (MLR) model trained over more than 3000 MASC images manually labeled by visual inspection. In a second step, the probabilistic information provided by the MLR is weighed on the three stereoscopic views of the MASC in order to assign a unique label to each hydrometeor. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed algorithm is evaluated on data collected in the Swiss Alps and in Antarctica. The algorithm achieves high performance, with a hydrometeor-type classification accuracy and Heidke skill score of 95 % and 0.93, respectively. The degree of riming is evaluated by introducing a riming index ranging between zero (no riming) and one (graupel) and characterized by a probable error of 5.5 %. A validation study is conducted through a comparison with an existing classification method based on two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) data and shows that the two methods are consistent.

  19. Microwave single-scattering properties of randomly oriented soft-ice hydrometeors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Casella


    Full Text Available Large ice hydrometeors are usually present in intense convective clouds and may significantly affect the upwelling radiances that are measured by satellite-borne microwave radiometers – especially, at millimeter-wavelength frequencies. Thus, interpretation of these measurements (e.g., for precipitation retrieval requires knowledge of the single scattering properties of ice particles. On the other hand, shape and internal structure of these particles (especially, the larger ones is very complex and variable, and therefore it is necessary to resort to simplifying assumptions in order to compute their single-scattering parameters.

    In this study, we use the discrete dipole approximation (DDA to compute the absorption and scattering efficiencies and the asymmetry factor of two kinds of quasi-spherical and non-homogeneous soft-ice particles in the frequency range 50–183 GHz. Particles of the first kind are modeled as quasi-spherical ice particles having randomly distributed spherical air inclusions. Particles of the second kind are modeled as random aggregates of ice spheres having random radii. In both cases, particle densities and dimensions are coherent with the snow hydrometeor category that is utilized by the University of Wisconsin – Non-hydrostatic Modeling System (UW-NMS cloud-mesoscale model. Then, we compare our single-scattering results for randomly-oriented soft-ice hydrometeors with corresponding ones that make use of: a effective-medium equivalent spheres, b solid-ice equivalent spheres, and c randomly-oriented aggregates of ice cylinders. Finally, we extend to our particles the scattering formulas that have been developed by other authors for randomly-oriented aggregates of ice cylinders.

  20. Diagnosis of hydrometeor profiles from area-mean vertical-velocity data (United States)

    Braun, Scott A.; Houze, Robert A., Jr.


    A simple one-dimensional microphysical retrieval model is developed for estimating vertical profiles of liquid and frozen hydrometeor mixing ratios from observed vertical profiles of area-mean vertical velocity in regions of convective and/or stratiform precipitation. The mean vertical-velocity profiles can be obtained from Doppler radar (single and dual) or other means. The one-dimensional results are shown to be in good agreement with two-dimensional microphysical fields from a previous study. Sensitivity tests are performed.

  1. Sensitivity of Numerical Simulations of a Mesoscale Convective System to Ice Hydrometeors in Bulk Microphysical Parameterization (United States)

    Pu, Zhaoxia; Lin, Chao; Dong, Xiquan; Krueger, Steven K.


    Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their associated cloud properties are the important factors that influence the aviation activities, yet they present a forecasting challenge in numerical weather prediction. In this study, the sensitivity of numerical simulations of an MCS over the US Southern Great Plains to ice hydrometeors in bulk microphysics (MP) schemes has been investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It is found that the simulated structure, life cycle, cloud coverage, and precipitation of the convective system as well as its associated cold pools are sensitive to three selected MP schemes, namely, the WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6), WRF double-moment 6-class (WDM6, with the double-moment treatment of warm-rain only), and Morrison double-moment (MORR, with the double-moment representation of both warm-rain and ice) schemes. Compared with observations, the WRF simulation with WSM6 only produces a less organized convection structure with a short lifetime, while WDM6 can produce the structure and length of the MCS very well. Both simulations heavily underestimate the precipitation amount, the height of the radar echo top, and stratiform cloud fractions. With MORR, the model performs well in predicting the lifetime, cloud coverage, echo top, and precipitation amount of the convection. Overall results demonstrate the importance of including double-moment representation of ice hydrometeors along with warm-rain. Additional experiments are performed to further examine the role of ice hydrometeors in numerical simulations of the MCS. Results indicate that replacing graupel with hail in the MORR scheme improves the prediction of the convective structure, especially in the convective core region.

  2. A Markovian model of evolving world input-output network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Moosavi

    Full Text Available The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, so far there has not been a full investigation of evolving world economic networks with Markov chain formalism. In this work, using the recently available world input-output database, we investigated the evolution of the world economic network from 1995 to 2011 through analysis of a time series of finite Markov chains. We assessed different aspects of this evolving system via different known properties of the Markov chains such as mixing time, Kemeny constant, steady state probabilities and perturbation analysis of the transition matrices. First, we showed how the time series of mixing times and Kemeny constants could be used as an aggregate index of globalization. Next, we focused on the steady state probabilities as a measure of structural power of the economies that are comparable to GDP shares of economies as the traditional index of economies welfare. Further, we introduced two measures of systemic risk, called systemic influence and systemic fragility, where the former is the ratio of number of influenced nodes to the total number of nodes, caused by a shock in the activity of a node, and the latter is based on the number of times a specific economic node is affected by a shock in the activity of any of the other nodes. Finally, focusing on Kemeny constant as a global indicator of monetary flow across the network, we showed that there is a paradoxical effect of a change in activity levels of economic nodes on the overall flow of the world economic network. While the economic slowdown of the majority of nodes with high structural power results to a slower average monetary flow over the network, there are some nodes, where their slowdowns improve the overall quality of the network in terms of connectivity and the average flow of the money.

  3. A Markovian model of evolving world input-output network. (United States)

    Moosavi, Vahid; Isacchini, Giulio


    The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, so far there has not been a full investigation of evolving world economic networks with Markov chain formalism. In this work, using the recently available world input-output database, we investigated the evolution of the world economic network from 1995 to 2011 through analysis of a time series of finite Markov chains. We assessed different aspects of this evolving system via different known properties of the Markov chains such as mixing time, Kemeny constant, steady state probabilities and perturbation analysis of the transition matrices. First, we showed how the time series of mixing times and Kemeny constants could be used as an aggregate index of globalization. Next, we focused on the steady state probabilities as a measure of structural power of the economies that are comparable to GDP shares of economies as the traditional index of economies welfare. Further, we introduced two measures of systemic risk, called systemic influence and systemic fragility, where the former is the ratio of number of influenced nodes to the total number of nodes, caused by a shock in the activity of a node, and the latter is based on the number of times a specific economic node is affected by a shock in the activity of any of the other nodes. Finally, focusing on Kemeny constant as a global indicator of monetary flow across the network, we showed that there is a paradoxical effect of a change in activity levels of economic nodes on the overall flow of the world economic network. While the economic slowdown of the majority of nodes with high structural power results to a slower average monetary flow over the network, there are some nodes, where their slowdowns improve the overall quality of the network in terms of connectivity and the average flow of the money.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baranov A. O.


    Full Text Available The article presents a comparative study of methods for modeling reproduction of fixed assets in various types of dynamic input-output models, which have been developed at the Novosibirsk State University and at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Division of Russian Academy of Sciences. The study compares the technique of information providing for the investment blocks of the models. Considered in detail mathematical description of the block of fixed assets reproduction in the Dynamic Input - Output Model included in the KAMIN system and the optimization interregional input - output model. Analyzes the peculiarities of information support of investment and fixed assets blocks of the Dynamic Input - Output Model included in the KAMIN system and the optimization interregional input - output model. In conclusion of the article provides suggestions for joint use of the analyzed models for Russian economy development forecasting. Provided the use of the KAMIN system’s models for short-term and middle-term forecasting and the optimization interregional input - output model to develop long-term forecasts based on the spatial structure of the economy.

  5. NACP Regional: Gridded 1-deg Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains standardized gridded observation data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations of carbon flux...

  6. NACP Regional: Gridded 1-deg Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains standardized gridded observation data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations of carbon flux parameters that...

  7. NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that various...

  8. NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that...

  9. Vertical overlap of probability density functions of cloud and precipitation hydrometeors: CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION PDF OVERLAP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ovchinnikov, Mikhail [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon Republic of Korea; Larson, Vincent E. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee Wisconsin USA; Wong, May [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Thayer-Calder, Katherine [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA


    Coarse-resolution climate models increasingly rely on probability density functions (PDFs) to represent subgrid-scale variability of prognostic variables. While PDFs characterize the horizontal variability, a separate treatment is needed to account for the vertical structure of clouds and precipitation. When sub-columns are drawn from these PDFs for microphysics or radiation parameterizations, appropriate vertical correlations must be enforced via PDF overlap specifications. This study evaluates the representation of PDF overlap in the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS) employed in the assumed PDF turbulence and cloud scheme called the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB). PDF overlap in CLUBB-SILHS simulations of continental and tropical oceanic deep convection is compared with overlap of PDF of various microphysics variables in cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of the same cases that explicitly predict the 3D structure of cloud and precipitation fields. CRM results show that PDF overlap varies significantly between different hydrometeor types, as well as between PDFs of mass and number mixing ratios for each species, - a distinction that the current SILHS implementation does not make. In CRM simulations that explicitly resolve cloud and precipitation structures, faster falling species, such as rain and graupel, exhibit significantly higher coherence in their vertical distributions than slow falling cloud liquid and ice. These results suggest that to improve the overlap treatment in the sub-column generator, the PDF correlations need to depend on hydrometeor properties, such as fall speeds, in addition to the currently implemented dependency on the turbulent convective length scale.

  10. Linearised model for PV panel power output variation with changes ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)


    This equivalent resistance represents the load seen at the PV panel terminals. It is dependent on the actual power drawn by the system and the interfacing converter between the PV panels and the load. Thus it is a function of the converter duty ratio and load characteristics. Due to the disturbance, output characteristics of ...

  11. An Advanced simulation Code for Modeling Inductive Output Tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuc Bui; R. Lawrence Ives


    During the Phase I program, CCR completed several major building blocks for a 3D large signal, inductive output tube (IOT) code using modern computer language and programming techniques. These included a 3D, Helmholtz, time-harmonic, field solver with a fully functional graphical user interface (GUI), automeshing and adaptivity. Other building blocks included the improved electrostatic Poisson solver with temporal boundary conditions to provide temporal fields for the time-stepping particle pusher as well as the self electric field caused by time-varying space charge. The magnetostatic field solver was also updated to solve for the self magnetic field caused by time changing current density in the output cavity gap. The goal function to optimize an IOT cavity was also formulated, and the optimization methodologies were investigated.


    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Zhuoying; Shi, Minjun; Zhao, Zhao


    The increasing economic interaction among various regions in China makes the construction of an interregional input–output table relevant for economic studies. This paper elaborates the model compilation procedure of the China Interregional Input–output model 2002. The key features of the model

  13. Identification of hydrometeor mixtures in polarimetric radar measurements and their linear de-mixing (United States)

    Besic, Nikola; Ventura, Jordi Figueras i.; Grazioli, Jacopo; Gabella, Marco; Germann, Urs; Berne, Alexis


    The issue of hydrometeor mixtures affects radar sampling volumes without a clear dominant hydrometeor type. Containing a number of different hydrometeor types which significantly contribute to the polarimetric variables, these volumes are likely to occur in the vicinity of the melting layer and mainly, at large distance from a given radar. Motivated by potential benefits for both quantitative and qualitative applications of dual-pol radar, we propose a method for the identification of hydrometeor mixtures and their subsequent linear de-mixing. This method is intrinsically related to our recently proposed semi-supervised approach for hydrometeor classification. The mentioned classification approach [1] performs labeling of radar sampling volumes by using as a criterion the Euclidean distance with respect to five-dimensional centroids, depicting nine hydrometeor classes. The positions of the centroids in the space formed by four radar moments and one external parameter (phase indicator), are derived through a technique of k-medoids clustering, applied on a selected representative set of radar observations, and coupled with statistical testing which introduces the assumed microphysical properties of the different hydrometeor types. Aside from a hydrometeor type label, each radar sampling volume is characterized by an entropy estimate, indicating the uncertainty of the classification. Here, we revisit the concept of entropy presented in [1], in order to emphasize its presumed potential for the identification of hydrometeor mixtures. The calculation of entropy is based on the estimate of the probability (pi ) that the observation corresponds to the hydrometeor type i (i = 1,ṡṡṡ9) . The probability is derived from the Euclidean distance (di ) of the observation to the centroid characterizing the hydrometeor type i . The parametrization of the d → p transform is conducted in a controlled environment, using synthetic polarimetric radar datasets. It ensures balanced

  14. Examination of Effective Dielectric Constants Derived from Non-Spherical Melting Hydrometeor (United States)

    Liao, L.; Meneghini, R.


    The bright band, a layer of enhanced radar echo associated with melting hydrometeors, is often observed in stratiform rain. Understanding the microphysical properties of melting hydrometeors and their scattering and propagation effects is of great importance in accurately estimating parameters of the precipitation from spaceborne radar and radiometers. However, one of the impediments in the study of the radar signature of the melting layer is the determination of effective dielectric constants of melting hydrometeors. Although a number of mixing formulas are available to compute the effective dielectric constants, their results vary to a great extent when water is a component of the mixture, such as in the case of melting snow. It is also physically unclear as to how to select among these various formulas. Furthermore, the question remains as to whether these mixing formulas can be applied to computations of radar polarimetric parameters from non-spherical melting particles. Recently, several approaches using numerical methods have been developed to derive the effective dielectric constants of melting hydrometeors, i.e., mixtures consisting of air, ice and water, based on more realistic melting models of particles, in which the composition of the melting hydrometeor is divided into a number of identical cells. Each of these cells is then assigned in a probabilistic way to be water, ice or air according to the distribution of fractional water contents for a particular particle. While the derived effective dielectric constants have been extensively tested at various wavelengths over a range of particle sizes, these numerical experiments have been restricted to the co-polarized scattering parameters from spherical particles. As polarimetric radar has been increasingly used in the study of microphysical properties of hydrometeors, an extension of the theory to polarimetric variables should provide additional information on melting processes. To account for polarimetric

  15. Detailed flow, hydrometeor and lightning characteristics of an isolated thunderstorm during COPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Schmidt


    Full Text Available The three-hour life-cycle of the isolated thunderstorm on 15 July 2007 during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS is documented in detail, with a special emphasis on the rapid development and mature phases. Remote sensing techniques as 5-min rapid scans from geostationary satellites, combined velocity retrievals from up to four Doppler-radars, the polarimetric determination of hydrometeors and spatio-temporal occurrences of lightning strokes are employed to arrive at a quantification of the physical parameters of this, during the COPS period, singular event.

    Inner cloud flow fields are available from radar multiple Doppler analyses at four consecutive times separated by 15 min-intervals. They contain horizontal winds of around 15 m s−1 and updrafts exceeding 5 m s−1, the latter collocated with lightning strokes. Reflectivity and polarimetric data indicate the existence of hail at the 2 km level around 14:40. Furthermore, polarimetric and Doppler radar variables indicate intense hydrometeor variability and turbulence corresponding to an enhanced variance of the retrieved 3-D wind fields. Profiles of flow and hydrometeor statistics over the entire cloud volume provide reference data for high-resolution numerical weather prediction runs in research mode.

    The study embarks from two movie-loops of geostationary satellite imagery (as Supplement, which provide an intuitive distinction of six phases making up the entire life-cycle of the thunderstorm. It concludes with a triple-image loop, juxtaposing a close-up of the cloud motion as seen by Meteosat, simulated brightness temperature (as a proxy for clouds seen by the infrared satellite channel, and a perspective view on the model generated system of cloud cells. The simulation suggests that several updrafts fed from a low level convergence line eventually removed the convective inhibition and set deep convection in motion. A

  16. Microwave signatures of ice hydrometeors from ground-based observations above Summit, Greenland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Pettersen


    Full Text Available Multi-instrument, ground-based measurements provide unique and comprehensive data sets of the atmosphere for a specific location over long periods of time and resulting data compliment past and existing global satellite observations. This paper explores the effect of ice hydrometeors on ground-based, high-frequency passive microwave measurements and attempts to isolate an ice signature for summer seasons at Summit, Greenland, from 2010 to 2013. Data from a combination of passive microwave, cloud radar, radiosonde, and ceilometer were examined to isolate the ice signature at microwave wavelengths. By limiting the study to a cloud liquid water path of 40 g m−2 or less, the cloud radar can identify cases where the precipitation was dominated by ice. These cases were examined using liquid water and gas microwave absorption models, and brightness temperatures were calculated for the high-frequency microwave channels: 90, 150, and 225 GHz. By comparing the measured brightness temperatures from the microwave radiometers and the calculated brightness temperature using only gas and liquid contributions, any residual brightness temperature difference is due to emission and scattering of microwave radiation from the ice hydrometeors in the column. The ice signature in the 90, 150, and 225 GHz channels for the Summit Station summer months was isolated. This measured ice signature was then compared to an equivalent brightness temperature difference calculated with a radiative transfer model including microwave single-scattering properties for several ice habits. Initial model results compare well against the 4 years of summer season isolated ice signature in the high-frequency microwave channels.

  17. Electrical and Hydrometeor Structure of Thunderstorms that produce Upward Lightning (United States)

    dos Santos Souza, J. C.; Albrecht, R. I.; Lang, T. J.; Saba, M. M.; Warner, T. A.; Schumann, C.


    Upward lightning (UL) flashes at tall structures have been reported to be initiated by in-cloud branching of a parent positive cloud-to-ground (CG) or intracloud (IC) lightning during the decaying stages of thunderstorms, and associated with stratiform precipitation. This in-cloud branching of the parent CG lightning into lower layers of the stratiform precipitation, as well as other situational modes of UL triggering, are indicative of a lower charge center. The objective of this study is to determine the hydrometeor characteristics of thunderstorms that produce UL, especially at the lower layers of the stratiform region where the bidirectional leader of the parent CG or IC lightning propagates through. We investigated 17 thunderstorms that produced 56 UL flashes in São Paulo, SP, Brazil and 10 thunderstorms (27 UL) from the UPLIGHTS field experiment in Rapid City, SD, USA. We used polarimetric radar data and 3D lighting mapping or the combination of total (i.e., intracloud and cloud-to-ground) and cloud-to-ground lightning strokes data. The Hydrometeor Identification for the thunderstorms of this study consider the information from polarimetric variables ZH, ZDR, KDP and RHOHV to infer radar echoes into rain (light, medium, heavy), hail, dry snow, wet snow, ice crystals, graupel and rain-hail mixtures. Charge structure is inferred by the 3D very-high-frequency (VHF) Lightning Mapping Array by monitoring lightning propagation closely in time and space and constructing vertical histograms of VHF source density. The results of this research project are important to increase the understanding of the phenomenon, the storm evolution and the predictability of UL.

  18. The Modulated-Input Modulated-Output Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Moskowitz, Ira S; Kang, Myong H


    .... The data replication problem in database systems is our motivation. We introduce a new queueing theoretic model, the MIMO model, that incorporates burstiness in the sending side and busy periods in the receiving side...

  19. ISLSCP II IGBP NPP Output from Terrestrial Biogeochemistry Models (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains modeled annual net primary production (NPP) for the land biosphere from seventeen different global models. Annual NPP is defined as...

  20. ISLSCP II IGBP NPP Output from Terrestrial Biogeochemistry Models (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains modeled annual net primary production (NPP) for the land biosphere from seventeen different global models. Annual NPP is defined as the net...

  1. Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar, E-mail:; Ramli, Razamin, E-mail:; Baten, M. D. Azizul, E-mail: [School of Quantitative Sciences, UUM College of Arts and Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010 Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia)


    Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers’ efficiency.

  2. Enhanced DEA model with undesirable output and interval data for rice growing farmers performance assessment (United States)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul


    Agricultural production process typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable outputs (such as greenhouse gas emission, nitrate leaching, effects to human and organisms and water pollution). In efficiency analysis, this undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in order to obtain the actual estimation of firms efficiency. Additionally, climatic factors as well as data uncertainty can significantly affect the efficiency analysis. There are a number of approaches that has been proposed in DEA literature to account for undesirable outputs. Many researchers has pointed that directional distance function (DDF) approach is the best as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, it has been found that interval data approach is the most suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding its distribution and membership function. In this paper, an enhanced DEA model based on DDF approach that considers undesirable outputs as well as climatic factors and interval data is proposed. This model will be used to determine the efficiency of rice farmers who produces undesirable outputs and operates under uncertainty. It is hoped that the proposed model will provide a better estimate of rice farmers' efficiency.

  3. Derivation of Output Power of Induction Heater Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riyadh K. Chillab


    Full Text Available The work is concerned with the study of the single phase cylindrical induction heating systems and derive equation power. The presented analysis is analytical and a multi-layer model using cylindrical geometry which is used to obtain the theoretical results. To validate the theoretical results, a practical model is constructed, tested and the results are compared with the theoretical ones. Comparison showed that the adopted analytical method is efficient in describing the performance of such induction heater systems

  4. Modeling and control of the output current of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Pasupathi, Sivakumar


    In this work, a dynamic Matlab SIMULINK model of the relationship between the fuel cell current set point of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell system and the output current of the system is developed. The model contains an estimated fuel cell model, based on a polarization curve and assumed first order...... dynamics, as well as a battery model based on an equivalent circuit model and a balance of plant power consumption model. The models are tuned with experimental data and verified using a verification data set. The model is used to develop an output current controller which can control the charge current...

  5. Output analysis of multiclass fluid models with static priorities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tzenova, E.I.; Adan, I.J.B.F.; Kulkarni, V.G.


    We consider a stochastic fluid flow model with a single server and K infinite capacity buffers. The input to the k-th buffer is a Markovian on-off process that transmits fluid at a constant rate p(k) while it is on and at rate 0 while it is off. The fluid is emptied from the buffers by a single

  6. Models of asthma: density-equalizing mapping and output benchmarking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fischer Tanja C


    Full Text Available Abstract Despite the large amount of experimental studies already conducted on bronchial asthma, further insights into the molecular basics of the disease are required to establish new therapeutic approaches. As a basis for this research different animal models of asthma have been developed in the past years. However, precise bibliometric data on the use of different models do not exist so far. Therefore the present study was conducted to establish a data base of the existing experimental approaches. Density-equalizing algorithms were used and data was retrieved from a Thomson Institute for Scientific Information database. During the period from 1900 to 2006 a number of 3489 filed items were connected to animal models of asthma, the first being published in the year 1968. The studies were published by 52 countries with the US, Japan and the UK being the most productive suppliers, participating in 55.8% of all published items. Analyzing the average citation per item as an indicator for research quality Switzerland ranked first (30.54/item and New Zealand ranked second for countries with more than 10 published studies. The 10 most productive journals included 4 with a main focus allergy and immunology and 4 with a main focus on the respiratory system. Two journals focussed on pharmacology or pharmacy. In all assigned subject categories examined for a relation to animal models of asthma, immunology ranked first. Assessing numbers of published items in relation to animal species it was found that mice were the preferred species followed by guinea pigs. In summary it can be concluded from density-equalizing calculations that the use of animal models of asthma is restricted to a relatively small number of countries. There are also differences in the use of species. These differences are based on variations in the research focus as assessed by subject category analysis.

  7. Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Wetterhall


    Full Text Available Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs through regional climate models (RCMs potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1 a simple direct method (DM, (2 quantile-quantile mapping (QM and (3 a distribution-based scaling (DBS approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

  8. Choice of theoretical model for beam scattering at accelerator output foil for particle energy determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balagyra, V.S.; Ryabka, P.M.


    For measuring the charged particle energy calculations of mean square angles of electron beam multiple Coulomb scattering at output combined accelerator target were undertaken according to seven theoretical models. Mollier method showed the best agreement with experiments

  9. Output fields from the NOAA WAVEWATCH III® wave model monthly hindcasts (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA WAVEWATCH III® hindcast dataset comprises output fields from the monthly WAVEWATCH III® hindcast model runs conducted at the National Centers for...

  10. Design of vaccination and fumigation on Host-Vector Model by input-output linearization method (United States)

    Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Naiborhu, Janson; Nuraini, Nuning


    Here, we analyze the Host-Vector Model and proposed design of vaccination and fumigation to control infectious population by using feedback control especially input-output liniearization method. Host population is divided into three compartments: susceptible, infectious and recovery. Whereas the vector population is divided into two compartment such as susceptible and infectious. In this system, vaccination and fumigation treat as input factors and infectious population as output result. The objective of design is to stabilize of the output asymptotically tend to zero. We also present the examples to illustrate the design model.

  11. Conditions for Model Matching of Switched Asynchronous Sequential Machines with Output Feedback


    Jung–Min Yang


    Solvability of the model matching problem for input/output switched asynchronous sequential machines is discussed in this paper. The control objective is to determine the existence condition and design algorithm for a corrective controller that can match the stable-state behavior of the closed-loop system to that of a reference model. Switching operations and correction procedures are incorporated using output feedback so that the controlled switched machine can show the ...

  12. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  13. Backstepping control for a 3DOF model helicopter with input and output constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Mei


    Full Text Available In this article, a backstepping control scheme is developed for the motion control of a Three degrees of freedom (3DOF model helicopter with unknown external disturbance, modelling uncertainties and input and output constraints. In the developed robust control scheme, augmented state observers are applied to estimate the unknown states, unknown external disturbance and modelling uncertainties. Auxiliary systems are designed to deal with input saturation. A barrier Lyapunov function is employed to handle the output saturation. The stability of closed-loop system is proved by the Lyapunov method. Simulation results show that the designed control scheme is effective at dealing with the motion control of a 3DOF model helicopter in the presence of unknown external disturbance and modelling uncertainties, and input and output saturation.

  14. An Evaluation of Mesoscale Model Based Model Output Statistics (MOS) During the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hart, Kenneth


    The skill of a mesoscale model based Model Output Statistics (MOS) system that provided hourly forecasts for 18 sites over northern Utah during the 2002 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games is evaluated...

  15. How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model output: four-stage model case-study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo


    -year model outputs uncertainty. More precisely, this study contributes to the existing literature on the topic by investigating the effects on model outputs uncertainty deriving from the use of (i) different probability distributions in the sampling process, (ii) different assignment algorithms, and (iii...... of coefficient of variation, resulting from stochastic user equilibrium and user equilibrium is, respectively, of 0.425 and 0.468. Finally, network congestion does not show a high effect on model output uncertainty at the network level. However, the final uncertainty of links with higher volume/capacity ratio......If not properly quantified, the uncertainty inherent to transport models makes analyses based on their output highly unreliable. This study investigated uncertainty in four-stage transport models by analysing a Danish case-study: the Næstved model. The model describes the demand of transport...

  16. Laguerre-Volterra model and architecture for MIMO system identification and output prediction. (United States)

    Li, Will X Y; Xin, Yao; Chan, Rosa H M; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W; Cheung, Ray C C


    A generalized mathematical model is proposed for behaviors prediction of biological causal systems with multiple inputs and multiple outputs (MIMO). The system properties are represented by a set of model parameters, which can be derived with random input stimuli probing it. The system calculates predicted outputs based on the estimated parameters and its novel inputs. An efficient hardware architecture is established for this mathematical model and its circuitry has been implemented using the field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). This architecture is scalable and its functionality has been validated by using experimental data gathered from real-world measurement.

  17. Retrieval of hydrometeors from microwave radiances with a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ties of media that produced them. The process of inferring constituents and its distributions from ..... is called a per- ceptron. It computes a function of the weighted sum of inputs and a bias, as shown in figure 4: ... bias of the output node, g is the transfer function of the output node, and y is the output. Then, y = g. ( m. ∑ j=1 vj f.

  18. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong


    In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying

  19. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koks, E.E.; Carrera, L.; Jonkeren, O.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Husby, T.G.; Thissen, M.; Standardi, G.; Mysiak, J.


    A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of

  20. Logistics flows and enterprise input-output models: aggregate and disaggregate analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albino, V.; Yazan, Devrim; Messeni Petruzzelli, A.; Okogbaa, O.G.


    In the present paper, we propose the use of enterprise input-output (EIO) models to describe and analyse the logistics flows considering spatial issues and related environmental effects associated with production and transportation processes. In particular, transportation is modelled as a specific

  1. Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling (United States)

    He, Yuning


    Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

  2. Modelling and Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aminmohammad Saberian


    Full Text Available This paper presents a solar power modelling method using artificial neural networks (ANNs. Two neural network structures, namely, general regression neural network (GRNN feedforward back propagation (FFBP, have been used to model a photovoltaic panel output power and approximate the generated power. Both neural networks have four inputs and one output. The inputs are maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and irradiance; the output is the power. The data used in this paper started from January 1, 2006, until December 31, 2010. The five years of data were split into two parts: 2006–2008 and 2009-2010; the first part was used for training and the second part was used for testing the neural networks. A mathematical equation is used to estimate the generated power. At the end, both of these networks have shown good modelling performance; however, FFBP has shown a better performance comparing with GRNN.

  3. Optimal cycling time trial position models: aerodynamics versus power output and metabolic energy. (United States)

    Fintelman, D M; Sterling, M; Hemida, H; Li, F-X


    The aerodynamic drag of a cyclist in time trial (TT) position is strongly influenced by the torso angle. While decreasing the torso angle reduces the drag, it limits the physiological functioning of the cyclist. Therefore the aims of this study were to predict the optimal TT cycling position as function of the cycling speed and to determine at which speed the aerodynamic power losses start to dominate. Two models were developed to determine the optimal torso angle: a 'Metabolic Energy Model' and a 'Power Output Model'. The Metabolic Energy Model minimised the required cycling energy expenditure, while the Power Output Model maximised the cyclists׳ power output. The input parameters were experimentally collected from 19 TT cyclists at different torso angle positions (0-24°). The results showed that for both models, the optimal torso angle depends strongly on the cycling speed, with decreasing torso angles at increasing speeds. The aerodynamic losses outweigh the power losses at cycling speeds above 46km/h. However, a fully horizontal torso is not optimal. For speeds below 30km/h, it is beneficial to ride in a more upright TT position. The two model outputs were not completely similar, due to the different model approaches. The Metabolic Energy Model could be applied for endurance events, while the Power Output Model is more suitable in sprinting or in variable conditions (wind, undulating course, etc.). It is suggested that despite some limitations, the models give valuable information about improving the cycling performance by optimising the TT cycling position. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Modeling of Output Characteristics of a UV Cu+ Ne-CuBr Laser

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Snezhana Georgieva Gocheva-Ilieva


    Full Text Available This paper examines experiment data for a Ne-CuBr UV copper ion laser excited by longitudinal pulsed discharge emitting in multiline regime. The flexible multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSs method has been used to develop nonparametric regression models describing the laser output power and service life of the devices. The models have been constructed as explicit functions of 9 basic input laser characteristics. The obtained models account for local nonlinearities of the relationships within the various multivariate subregions. The built best MARS models account for over 98% of data. The models are used to estimate the investigated output laser characteristics of existing UV lasers. The capabilities for using the models in predicting existing and future experiments have been demonstrated. Specific analyses have been presented comparing the models with actual experiments. The obtained results are applicable for guiding and planning the engineering experiment. The modeling methodology can be applied for a wide range of similar lasers and laser devices.

  5. Rice growing farmers efficiency measurement using a slack based interval DEA model with undesirable outputs (United States)

    Khan, Sahubar Ali Mohd. Nadhar; Ramli, Razamin; Baten, M. D. Azizul


    In recent years eco-efficiency which considers the effect of production process on environment in determining the efficiency of firms have gained traction and a lot of attention. Rice farming is one of such production processes which typically produces two types of outputs which are economic desirable as well as environmentally undesirable. In efficiency analysis, these undesirable outputs cannot be ignored and need to be included in the model to obtain the actual estimation of firm's efficiency. There are numerous approaches that have been used in data envelopment analysis (DEA) literature to account for undesirable outputs of which directional distance function (DDF) approach is the most widely used as it allows for simultaneous increase in desirable outputs and reduction of undesirable outputs. Additionally, slack based DDF DEA approaches considers the output shortfalls and input excess in determining efficiency. In situations when data uncertainty is present, the deterministic DEA model is not suitable to be used as the effects of uncertain data will not be considered. In this case, it has been found that interval data approach is suitable to account for data uncertainty as it is much simpler to model and need less information regarding the underlying data distribution and membership function. The proposed model uses an enhanced DEA model which is based on DDF approach and incorporates slack based measure to determine efficiency in the presence of undesirable factors and data uncertainty. Interval data approach was used to estimate the values of inputs, undesirable outputs and desirable outputs. Two separate slack based interval DEA models were constructed for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The developed model was used to determine rice farmers efficiency from Kepala Batas, Kedah. The obtained results were later compared to the results obtained using a deterministic DDF DEA model. The study found that 15 out of 30 farmers are efficient in all cases. It

  6. Estimating the Health Impact of Climate Change with Calibrated Climate Model Output. (United States)

    Zhou, Jingwen; Chang, Howard H; Fuentes, Montserrat


    Studies on the health impacts of climate change routinely use climate model output as future exposure projection. Uncertainty quantification, usually in the form of sensitivity analysis, has focused predominantly on the variability arise from different emission scenarios or multi-model ensembles. This paper describes a Bayesian spatial quantile regression approach to calibrate climate model output for examining to the risks of future temperature on adverse health outcomes. Specifically, we first estimate the spatial quantile process for climate model output using nonlinear monotonic regression during a historical period. The quantile process is then calibrated using the quantile functions estimated from the observed monitoring data. Our model also down-scales the gridded climate model output to the point-level for projecting future exposure over a specific geographical region. The quantile regression approach is motivated by the need to better characterize the tails of future temperature distribution where the greatest health impacts are likely to occur. We applied the methodology to calibrate temperature projections from a regional climate model for the period 2041 to 2050. Accounting for calibration uncertainty, we calculated the number of of excess deaths attributed to future temperature for three cities in the US state of Alabama.

  7. Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis. (United States)

    El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R


    Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. About the use of rank transformation in sensitivity analysis of model output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, Andrea; Sobol', Ilya M


    Rank transformations are frequently employed in numerical experiments involving a computational model, especially in the context of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Response surface replacement and parameter screening are tasks which may benefit from a rank transformation. Ranks can cope with nonlinear (albeit monotonic) input-output distributions, allowing the use of linear regression techniques. Rank transformed statistics are more robust, and provide a useful solution in the presence of long tailed input and output distributions. As is known to practitioners, care must be employed when interpreting the results of such analyses, as any conclusion drawn using ranks does not translate easily to the original model. In the present note an heuristic approach is taken, to explore, by way of practical examples, the effect of a rank transformation on the outcome of a sensitivity analysis. An attempt is made to identify trends, and to correlate these effects to a model taxonomy. Employing sensitivity indices, whereby the total variance of the model output is decomposed into a sum of terms of increasing dimensionality, we show that the main effect of the rank transformation is to increase the relative weight of the first order terms (the 'main effects'), at the expense of the 'interactions' and 'higher order interactions'. As a result the influence of those parameters which influence the output mostly by way of interactions may be overlooked in an analysis based on the ranks. This difficulty increases with the dimensionality of the problem, and may lead to the failure of a rank based sensitivity analysis. We suggest that the models can be ranked, with respect to the complexity of their input-output relationship, by mean of an 'Association' index I y . I y may complement the usual model coefficient of determination R y 2 as a measure of model complexity for the purpose of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

  9. Development of algorithm for depreciation costs allocation in dynamic input-output industrial enterprise model


    Keller Alevtina; Vinogradova Tatyana


    The article considers the issue of allocation of depreciation costs in the dynamic inputoutput model of an industrial enterprise. Accounting the depreciation costs in such a model improves the policy of fixed assets management. It is particularly relevant to develop the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs in the construction of dynamic input-output model of an industrial enterprise, since such enterprises have a significant amount of fixed assets. Implementation of terms of the...

  10. Input-Output model for waste management plan for Nigeria | Njoku ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An Input-Output Model for Waste Management Plan has been developed for Nigeria based on Leontief concept and life cycle analysis. Waste was considered as source of pollution, loss of resources, and emission of green house gasses from bio-chemical treatment and decomposition, with negative impact on the ...

  11. Analyses of gust fronts by means of limited area NWP model outputs

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kašpar, Marek

    67-68, - (2003), s. 559-572 ISSN 0169-8095 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/00/1451 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : gust front * limited area NWP model * output Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.012, year: 2003

  12. Can dynamically downscaled climate model outputs improve pojections of extreme precipitation events? (United States)

    Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect betwe...

  13. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in The Netherlands: A regional input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.


    Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise and uniform definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model is constructed for multifunctional

  14. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in Dutch regions: An input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.


    Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model was constructed for multifunctional agriculture

  15. texreg: Conversion of Statistical Model Output in R to LATEX and HTML Tables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Leifeld


    Full Text Available A recurrent task in applied statistics is the (mostly manual preparation of model output for inclusion in LATEX, Microsoft Word, or HTML documents usually with more than one model presented in a single table along with several goodness-of-fit statistics. However, statistical models in R have diverse object structures and summary methods, which makes this process cumbersome. This article first develops a set of guidelines for converting statistical model output to LATEX and HTML tables, then assesses to what extent existing packages meet these requirements, and finally presents the texreg package as a solution that meets all of the criteria set out in the beginning. After providing various usage examples, a blueprint for writing custom model extensions is proposed.

  16. Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks. (United States)

    Hajek, Petr; Henriques, Roberto


    Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teti Sofia Yanti


    Full Text Available Input-Output Table is arranged to present an overview of the interrelationships and interdependence between units of activity (sector production in the whole economy. Therefore the input-output models are complete and comprehensive analytical tool. The usefulness of input-output tables is an analysis of the economic structure of the national/regional level which covers the structure of production and value-added (GDP of each sector. For the purposes of planning and evaluation of the outcomes of development that is comprehensive both national and smaller scale (district/city, a model for regional development planning approach can use the model input-output analysis. Analysis of Bandung Economic Structure did use Le Masne index, by comparing the coefficients of the technology in 2003 and 2008, of which nearly 50% change. The trade sector has grown very conspicuous than other areas, followed by the services of road transport and air transport services, the development priorities and investment Bandung should be directed to these areas, this is due to these areas can be thrust and be power attraction for the growth of other areas. The areas that experienced the highest decrease was Industrial Chemicals and Goods from Chemistry, followed by Oil and Refinery Industry Textile Industry Except For Garment.

  18. Modelling innovation performance of European regions using multi-output neural networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Hajek

    Full Text Available Regional innovation performance is an important indicator for decision-making regarding the implementation of policies intended to support innovation. However, patterns in regional innovation structures are becoming increasingly diverse, complex and nonlinear. To address these issues, this study aims to develop a model based on a multi-output neural network. Both intra- and inter-regional determinants of innovation performance are empirically investigated using data from the 4th and 5th Community Innovation Surveys of NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics regions. The results suggest that specific innovation strategies must be developed based on the current state of input attributes in the region. Thus, it is possible to develop appropriate strategies and targeted interventions to improve regional innovation performance. We demonstrate that support of entrepreneurship is an effective instrument of innovation policy. We also provide empirical support that both business and government R&D activity have a sigmoidal effect, implying that the most effective R&D support should be directed to regions with below-average and average R&D activity. We further show that the multi-output neural network outperforms traditional statistical and machine learning regression models. In general, therefore, it seems that the proposed model can effectively reflect both the multiple-output nature of innovation performance and the interdependency of the output attributes.

  19. Efficient Output Solution for Nonlinear Stochastic Optimal Control Problem with Model-Reality Differences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sie Long Kek


    Full Text Available A computational approach is proposed for solving the discrete time nonlinear stochastic optimal control problem. Our aim is to obtain the optimal output solution of the original optimal control problem through solving the simplified model-based optimal control problem iteratively. In our approach, the adjusted parameters are introduced into the model used such that the differences between the real system and the model used can be computed. Particularly, system optimization and parameter estimation are integrated interactively. On the other hand, the output is measured from the real plant and is fed back into the parameter estimation problem to establish a matching scheme. During the calculation procedure, the iterative solution is updated in order to approximate the true optimal solution of the original optimal control problem despite model-reality differences. For illustration, a wastewater treatment problem is studied and the results show the efficiency of the approach proposed.

  20. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.


    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baranov A. O.


    Full Text Available The accumulation of human capital is an important factor of economic growth. It seems to be useful to include «human capital» as a factor of a macroeconomic model, as it helps to take into account the quality differentiation of the workforce. Most of the models usually distinguish labor force by the levels of education, while some of the factors remain unaccounted. Among them are health status and culture development level, which influence productivity level as well as gross product reproduction. Inclusion of the human capital block to the interindustry model can help to make it more reliable for economic development forecasting. The article presents a mathematical description of the extended dynamic input-output model (DIOM with a human capital block. The extended DIOM is based on the Input-Output Model from The KAMIN system (the System of Integrated Analyses of Interindustrial Information developed at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences of the Russian Federation and at the Novosibirsk State University. The extended input-output model can be used to analyze and forecast development of Russian economy.

  2. Simulation model structure numerically robust to changes in magnitude and combination of input and output variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne


    Mathematical models of refrigeration systems are often based on a coupling of component models forming a “closed loop” type of system model. In these models the coupling structure of the component models represents the actual flow path of refrigerant in the system. Very often numerical...... variables with narrow definition intervals for the exchange of information between the cycle model and the component models.The advantages of the cycle-oriented method are illustrated by an example showing the refrigeration cycle similarities between two very different refrigeration systems....... instabilities prevent the practical use of such a system model for more than one input/output combination and for other magnitudes of refrigerating capacities.A higher numerical robustness of system models can be achieved by making a model for the refrigeration cycle the core of the system model and by using...

  3. Linear and quadratic models of point process systems: contributions of patterned input to output. (United States)

    Lindsay, K A; Rosenberg, J R


    In the 1880's Volterra characterised a nonlinear system using a functional series connecting continuous input and continuous output. Norbert Wiener, in the 1940's, circumvented problems associated with the application of Volterra series to physical problems by deriving from it a new series of terms that are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Gaussian processes. Subsequently, Brillinger, in the 1970's, introduced a point-process analogue of Volterra's series connecting point-process inputs to the instantaneous rate of point-process output. We derive here a new series from this analogue in which its terms are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Poisson processes. This new series expresses how patterned input in a spike train, represented by third-order cross-cumulants, is converted into the instantaneous rate of an output point-process. Given experimental records of suitable duration, the contribution of arbitrary patterned input to an output process can, in principle, be determined. Solutions for linear and quadratic point-process models with one and two inputs and a single output are investigated. Our theoretical results are applied to isolated muscle spindle data in which the spike trains from the primary and secondary endings from the same muscle spindle are recorded in response to stimulation of one and then two static fusimotor axons in the absence and presence of a random length change imposed on the parent muscle. For a fixed mean rate of input spikes, the analysis of the experimental data makes explicit which patterns of two input spikes contribute to an output spike. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Application of a Linear Input/Output Model to Tankless Water Heaters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butcher T.; Schoenbauer, B.


    In this study, the applicability of a linear input/output model to gas-fired, tankless water heaters has been evaluated. This simple model assumes that the relationship between input and output, averaged over both active draw and idle periods, is linear. This approach is being applied to boilers in other studies and offers the potential to make a small number of simple measurements to obtain the model parameters. These parameters can then be used to predict performance under complex load patterns. Both condensing and non-condensing water heaters have been tested under a very wide range of load conditions. It is shown that this approach can be used to reproduce performance metrics, such as the energy factor, and can be used to evaluate the impacts of alternative draw patterns and conditions.

  5. Output-only identification of civil structures using nonlinear finite element model updating (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Hamed; Astroza, Rodrigo; Conte, Joel P.


    This paper presents a novel approach for output-only nonlinear system identification of structures using data recorded during earthquake events. In this approach, state-of-the-art nonlinear structural FE modeling and analysis techniques are combined with Bayesian Inference method to estimate (i) time-invariant parameters governing the nonlinear hysteretic material constitutive models used in the FE model of the structure, and (ii) the time history of the earthquake ground motion. To validate the performance of the proposed framework, the simulated responses of a bridge pier to an earthquake ground motion is polluted with artificial output measurement noise and used to jointly estimate the unknown material parameters and the time history of the earthquake ground motion. This proof-of-concept example illustrates the successful performance of the proposed approach even in the presence of high measurement noise.

  6. On the statistical comparison of climate model output and climate data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solow, A.R.


    Some broad issues arising in the statistical comparison of the output of climate models with the corresponding climate data are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the question of detecting climate change. The purpose of this paper is to review some statistical approaches to the comparison of the output of climate models with climate data. There are many statistical issues arising in such a comparison. The author will focus on some of the broader issues, although some specific methodological questions will arise along the way. One important potential application of the approaches discussed in this paper is the detection of climate change. Although much of the discussion will be fairly general, he will try to point out the appropriate connections to the detection question. 9 refs

  7. On the statistical comparison of climate model output and climate data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solow, A.R.


    Some broad issues arising in the statistical comparison of the output of climate models with the corresponding climate data are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the question of detecting climate change. The purpose of this paper is to review some statistical approaches to the comparison of the output of climate models with climate data. There are many statistical issues arising in such a comparison. The author will focus on some of the broader issues, although some specific methodological questions will arise along the way. One important potential application of the approaches discussed in this paper is the detection of climate change. Although much of the discussion will be fairly general, he will try to point out the appropriate connections to the detection question

  8. Hydrometeor-enhanced tephra sedimentation: Constraints from the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (United States)

    Durant, A.J.; Rose, William I.; Sarna-Wojcicki, A. M.; Carey, Steven; Volentik, A.C.M.


    Uncertainty remains on the origin of distal mass deposition maxima observed in many recent tephra fall deposits. In this study the link between ash aggregation and the formation of distal mass deposition maxima is investigated through reanalysis of tephra fallout from the Mount St. Helens 18 May 1980 (MSH80) eruption. In addition, we collate all the data needed to model distal ash sedimentation from the MSH80 eruption cloud. Four particle size subpopulations were present in distal fallout with modes at 2.2 ??, 4.2 ??, 5.9 ??, and 8.3 ??. Settling rates of the coarsest subpopulation closely matched predicted single-particle terminal fall velocities. Sedimentation of particles <100 ??m was greatly enhanced, predominantly through aggregation of a particle subpopulation with modal diameter 5.9 ?? 0.2 ?? (19 ?? 3 ??m). Mammatus on the MSH80 cloud provided a mechanism to transport very fine ash particles, with predicted atmospheric lifetimes of days to weeks, from the upper troposphere to the surface in a matter of hours. In this mechanism, ash particles initiate ice hydrometeor formation high in the troposphere. Subsequently, the volcanic cloud rapidly subsides as mammatus develop from increased particle loading and cloud base sublimation. Rapid fallout occurs as the cloud passes through the melting level in a process analogous to snowflake aggregation. Aggregates sediment en masse and form the distal mass deposition maxima observed in many recent volcanic ash fall deposits. This work provides a data resource that will facilitate tephra sedimentation modeling and allow model intercomparisons. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Input vs. Output Taxation—A DSGE Approach to Modelling Resource Decoupling


    Marek Antosiewicz; Piotr Lewandowski; Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks


    Environmental taxes constitute a crucial instrument aimed at reducing resource use through lower production losses, resource-leaner products, and more resource-efficient production processes. In this paper we focus on material use and apply a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study two types of taxation: tax on material inputs used by industry, energy, construction, and transport sectors, and tax on output of these sectors. We allow for endogenous adoption of...

  10. Structured, Physically Inspired (Gray Box) Models Versus Black Box Modeling for Forecasting the Output Power of Photovoltaic Plants

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Paulescu, M.; Brabec, Marek; Boata, R.; Badescu, V.


    Roč. 121, 15 February (2017), s. 792-802 ISSN 0360-5442 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : photovoltaic plant * output power * forecasting * fuzzy model * generalized additive model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 4.520, year: 2016

  11. A sensitivity study of diffusional mass transfer of gases in tropical storm hydrometeors (United States)

    Ghosh, Satyajit; Gumber, Siddharth; Varotsos, C.


    This paper quantifies mass transfer and diffusional uptake rates of gases in liquid and solid hydrometeors within a cyclonic system. The non-availability of transfer rates for trace gases diffusing into storm hydrometeors, particularly over polluted urban conurbations, often constrain modellers the world over; however, this is an essential requirement to quantify the scavenging rates over the region concerned. The present paper seeks to provide modellers with such rates. Further, all of the earlier studies apply only to temperate regimes, and surprisingly identical formulations are assumed even for tropical conditions. The present analysis fills this research gap and couples cloud morphology with the associated thermodynamics through Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) runs for cyclone Chapala (27 October 2015-04 November 2015) which battered the coasts of Yemen (Skamarock et al. 2008). It was a good example for undertaking this sensitivity study because the vertical extent spanned from around 0.75 to 16 km—enabling uptake rate calculations over both droplet and ice phases. Many of the diffusing gases were polar; the dipole moment of sulphur dioxide (SO2) and water vapour (H2O) was also included using a full Lennard-Jones model to compute the binary diffusivities of these gases as they diffused into the droplets mixed with water vapour. The first-order uptake rate constants ranged from 2.08 × 10-07 to 3.44 × 10-06 (s-1) and 1.97 × 10-07 to 7.81 × 10-07 (s-1) for H2O and SO2 respectively. The rates are of the order of 10-09 (s-1) for diffusion of water vapour into ice crystals further aloft. Closely linked with the gas uptake rates is another crucial parameter—the mass accommodation coefficient, α. The most widely used values are 1 and 0.036 (Pruppacher and Klett 1998)—the chosen values are restrictive and warrants a closer look. In storm systems, the vertical extents are in the kilometre range. Chapala with a large vertical extent warrants a full

  12. A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel D. Cavanagh


    Full Text Available Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer, there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.

  13. Space-time data fusion under error in computer model output: an application to modeling air quality. (United States)

    Berrocal, Veronica J; Gelfand, Alan E; Holland, David M


    We provide methods that can be used to obtain more accurate environmental exposure assessment. In particular, we propose two modeling approaches to combine monitoring data at point level with numerical model output at grid cell level, yielding improved prediction of ambient exposure at point level. Extending our earlier downscaler model (Berrocal, V. J., Gelfand, A. E., and Holland, D. M. (2010b). A spatio-temporal downscaler for outputs from numerical models. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 15, 176-197), these new models are intended to address two potential concerns with the model output. One recognizes that there may be useful information in the outputs for grid cells that are neighbors of the one in which the location lies. The second acknowledges potential spatial misalignment between a station and its putatively associated grid cell. The first model is a Gaussian Markov random field smoothed downscaler that relates monitoring station data and computer model output via the introduction of a latent Gaussian Markov random field linked to both sources of data. The second model is a smoothed downscaler with spatially varying random weights defined through a latent Gaussian process and an exponential kernel function, that yields, at each site, a new variable on which the monitoring station data is regressed with a spatial linear model. We applied both methods to daily ozone concentration data for the Eastern US during the summer months of June, July and August 2001, obtaining, respectively, a 5% and a 15% predictive gain in overall predictive mean square error over our earlier downscaler model (Berrocal et al., 2010b). Perhaps more importantly, the predictive gain is greater at hold-out sites that are far from monitoring sites. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  14. Grouping Influences Output Interference in Short-term Memory: A Mixture Modeling Study. (United States)

    Kang, Min-Suk; Oh, Byung-Il


    Output interference is a source of forgetting induced by recalling. We investigated how grouping influences output interference in short-term memory. In Experiment 1, the participants were asked to remember four colored items. Those items were grouped by temporal coincidence as well as spatial alignment: two items were presented in the first memory array and two were presented in the second, and the items in both arrays were either vertically or horizontally aligned as well. The participants then performed two recall tasks in sequence by selecting a color presented at a cued location from a color wheel. In the same-group condition, the participants reported both items from the same memory array; however, in the different-group condition, the participants reported one item from each memory array. We analyzed participant responses with a mixture model, which yielded two measures: guess rate and precision of recalled memories. The guess rate in the second recall was higher for the different-group condition than for the same-group condition; however, the memory precisions obtained for both conditions were similarly degraded in the second recall. In Experiment 2, we varied the probability of the same- and different-group conditions with a ratio of 3 to 7. We expected output interference to be higher in the same-group condition than in the different-group condition. This is because items of the other group are more likely to be probed in the second recall phase and, thus, protecting those items during the first recall phase leads to a better performance. Nevertheless, the same pattern of results was robustly reproduced, suggesting grouping shields the grouped items from output interference because of the secured accessibility. We discussed how grouping influences output interference.

  15. Grouping influences output interference in short-term memory: a mixture modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Suk eKang


    Full Text Available Output interference is a source of forgetting induced by recalling. We investigated how grouping influences output interference in short-term memory. In Experiment 1, the participants were asked to remember four colored items. Those items were grouped by temporal coincidence as well as spatial alignment: two items were presented in the first memory array and two were presented in the second, and the items in both arrays were either vertically or horizontally aligned as well. The participants then performed two recall tasks in sequence by selecting a color presented at a cued location from a color wheel. In the same-group condition, the participants reported both items from the same memory array; however, in the different-group condition, the participants reported one item from each memory array. We analyzed participant responses with a mixture model, which yielded two measures: guess rate and precision of recalled memories. The guess rate in the second recall was higher for the different-group condition than for the same-group condition; however, the memory precisions obtained for both conditions were similarly degraded in the second recall. In Experiment 2, we varied the probability of the same- and different-group conditions with a ratio of 3 to 7. We expected output interference to be higher in the same-group condition than in the different-group condition. This is because items of the other group are more likely to be probed in the second recall phase and, thus, protecting those items during the first recall phase leads to a better performance. Nevertheless, the same pattern of results was robustly reproduced, suggesting grouping shields the grouped items from output interference because of the secured accessibility. We discussed how grouping influences output interference.

  16. An Optimized Grey Dynamic Model for Forecasting the Output of High-Tech Industry in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng-Xin Wang


    Full Text Available The grey dynamic model by convolution integral with the first-order derivative of the 1-AGO data and n series related, abbreviated as GDMC(1,n, performs well in modelling and forecasting of a grey system. To improve the modelling accuracy of GDMC(1,n, n interpolation coefficients (taken as unknown parameters are introduced into the background values of the n variables. The parameters optimization is formulated as a combinatorial optimization problem and is solved collectively using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The optimized result has been verified by a case study of the economic output of high-tech industry in China. Comparisons of the obtained modelling results from the optimized GDMC(1,n model with the traditional one demonstrate that the optimal algorithm is a good alternative for parameters optimization of the GDMC(1,n model. The modelling results can assist the government in developing future policies regarding high-tech industry management.

  17. Development of algorithm for depreciation costs allocation in dynamic input-output industrial enterprise model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keller Alevtina


    Full Text Available The article considers the issue of allocation of depreciation costs in the dynamic inputoutput model of an industrial enterprise. Accounting the depreciation costs in such a model improves the policy of fixed assets management. It is particularly relevant to develop the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs in the construction of dynamic input-output model of an industrial enterprise, since such enterprises have a significant amount of fixed assets. Implementation of terms of the adequacy of such an algorithm itself allows: evaluating the appropriateness of investments in fixed assets, studying the final financial results of an industrial enterprise, depending on management decisions in the depreciation policy. It is necessary to note that the model in question for the enterprise is always degenerate. It is caused by the presence of zero rows in the matrix of capital expenditures by lines of structural elements unable to generate fixed assets (part of the service units, households, corporate consumers. The paper presents the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs for the model. This algorithm was developed by the authors and served as the basis for further development of the flowchart for subsequent implementation with use of software. The construction of such algorithm and its use for dynamic input-output models of industrial enterprises is actualized by international acceptance of the effectiveness of the use of input-output models for national and regional economic systems. This is what allows us to consider that the solutions discussed in the article are of interest to economists of various industrial enterprises.

  18. Usefulness of non-linear input-output models for economic impact analyses in tourism and recreation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Peerlings, J.H.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.


    In tourism and recreation management it is still common practice to apply traditional input–output (IO) economic impact models, despite their well-known limitations. In this study the authors analyse the usefulness of applying a non-linear input–output (NLIO) model, in which price-induced input

  19. Input vs. Output Taxation—A DSGE Approach to Modelling Resource Decoupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Antosiewicz


    Full Text Available Environmental taxes constitute a crucial instrument aimed at reducing resource use through lower production losses, resource-leaner products, and more resource-efficient production processes. In this paper we focus on material use and apply a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE model to study two types of taxation: tax on material inputs used by industry, energy, construction, and transport sectors, and tax on output of these sectors. We allow for endogenous adoption of resource-saving technologies. We calibrate the model for the EU27 area using an IO matrix. We consider taxation introduced from 2021 and simulate its impact until 2050. We compare the taxes along their ability to induce reduction in material use and raise revenue. We also consider the effect of spending this revenue on reduction of labour taxation. We find that input and output taxation create contrasting incentives and have opposite effects on resource efficiency. The material input tax induces investment in efficiency-improving technology which, in the long term, results in GDP and employment by 15%–20% higher than in the case of a comparable output tax. We also find that using revenues to reduce taxes on labour has stronger beneficial effects for the input tax.

  20. Modelling health and output at business cycle horizons for the USA. (United States)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar


    In this paper we employ a theoretical framework - a simple macro model augmented with health - that draws guidance from the Keynesian view of business cycles to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in health expenditure and output at business cycle horizons for the USA. The variance decomposition analysis of shocks reveals that at business cycle horizons permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in output, while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in health expenditures. We undertake a shock decomposition analysis for private health expenditures versus public health expenditures and interestingly find that while transitory shocks are more important for private sector expenditures, permanent shocks dominate public health expenditures. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Output tracking and synchronization of chaotic Chua's circuit with disturbances via model predictive regulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Tiejun; Feng Gang


    In this paper, we consider the output tracking and synchronization problem for a piecewise linear chaotic Chua's circuit, which is expected to follow the reference signal generated by another autonomous chaotic Chua's circuit. A novel model predictive regulator is proposed to guarantee the chaos synchronization in the presence of external disturbance. Moreover with this regulator, the optimal transient tracking performance for synchronization is ensured even when the piecewise autonomous and controlled Chua's circuits switch asynchronously. The proposed approach is highly efficient in the sense that the regulation conditions can be satisfied by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities and several Sylvester equations instead of many partial differential regulator equations in the well-known nonlinear output regulation theory.

  2. Detecting Weather Radar Clutter by Information Fusion With Satellite Images and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Hansen, Lars Kai


    A method for detecting clutter in weather radar images by information fusion is presented. Radar data, satellite images, and output from a numerical weather prediction model are combined and the radar echoes are classified using supervised classification. The presented method uses indirect...... information on precipitation in the atmosphere from Meteosat-8 multispectral images and near-surface temperature estimates from the DMI-HIRLAM-S05 numerical weather prediction model. Alternatively, an operational nowcasting product called 'Precipitating Clouds' based on Meteosat-8 input is used. A scale...

  3. Archive Access to the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Suite of Model Output (United States)

    Rutledge, G. K.; Schuster, D.; Worley, S.; Stepaniak, D.; Toth, Z.; Zhu, Y.; Bougeault, P.; Anthony, S.


    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Programme (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), is a key component of the World Weather Research Programme intended to accelerate improvements in 1-day to 2-week weather forecasts. Centralized archives of ensemble model forecast data, from many international centers, are being used to enable extensive data sharing and research during Phase I of the project. The designated TIGGE archive centers include the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA), The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Scientific data requirements and archive planning solidified in late 2005, and archive collection was initiated in October 2006 with receipt of partial sets of parameters from multiple data providers. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1-2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near-real-time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at CMA, ECMWF and NCAR. The objective of TIGGE (GEO task WE-06-03) is to establish closer cooperation between the academic and operational community by encouraging use of operational products for research, and to explore actively the concept and benefits of multi- model probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on severe weather prediction. The future operational use of the TIGGE infrastructure as part of a "Global Interactive Forecasting System" will be considered, subject to positive results from research undertaken with the TIGGE data archives. The Unidata Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system is the primary mode used to transport ensemble model data from the data providers to the archive centers. ECMWF acts as one initial collection point to collect model output from the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Meteo

  4. Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Outputs to Inform Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events (United States)

    Wobus, Cameron; Reynolds, Lara; Jones, Russell; Horton, Radley; Smith, Joel; Fries, J. Stephen; Tryby, Michael; Spero, Tanya; Nolte, Chris


    Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect between the nature of the events that cause damaging floods and the models used to project how climate change might influence their magnitude. This could be a particular problem when developing scenarios to inform future storm water management options under future climate scenarios. In this study we sought to close this gap, using sub-daily outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) from each of the nine climate regions in the United States. Specifically, we asked 1) whether WRF outputs projected consistent patterns of change for sub-daily and daily precipitation extremes; and 2) whether this dynamically downscaled model projected different magnitudes of change for 3-hourly vs 24-hourly extreme events. We extracted annual maximum values for 3-hour through 24-hour precipitation totals from an 11-year time series of hindcast (1995-2005) and mid-century (2045-2055) climate, and calculated the direction and magnitude of change for 3-hour and 24-hour extreme events over this timeframe. The model results project that the magnitude of both 3-hour and 24-hour events will increase over most regions of the United States, but there was no clear or consistent difference in the relative magnitudes of change for sub-daily vs daily events.

  5. Prediction model and treatment of high-output ileostomy in colorectal cancer surgery. (United States)

    Fujino, Shiki; Miyoshi, Norikatsu; Ohue, Masayuki; Takahashi, Yuske; Yasui, Masayoshi; Sugimura, Keijiro; Akita, Hirohumi; Takahashi, Hidenori; Kobayashi, Shogo; Yano, Masahiko; Sakon, Masato


    The aim of the present study was to examine the risk factors of high-output ileostomy (HOI), which is associated with electrolyte abnormalities and/or stoma complications, and to create a prediction model. The medical records of 68 patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery with ileostomy between 2011 and 2016 were retrospectively investigated. All the patients underwent surgical resection for colorectal cancer at the Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases (Osaka, Japan). A total of 7 patients with inadequate data on ileostomy output were excluded. Using a group of 50 patients who underwent surgery between 2011 and 2013, the risk of HOI was classified by a decision tree model using a partition platform. The HOI prediction model was validated in an additional group of 11 patients who underwent surgery between 2014 and 2016. Univariate analysis of clinical factors demonstrated that young age (P=0.003) and high white blood cell (WBC) count (Pmodel, three factors (gender, age and WBC on postoperative day 1) were generated for the prediction of HOI. The patients were classified into five groups, and HOI was observed in 0-88% of patients in each group. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.838. The model was validated by an external dataset in an independent patient group, for which the AUC was 0.792. In conclusion, HOI patients were classified and an HOI prediction model was developed that may help clinicians in postoperative care.

  6. Monetary Policy and Industrial Output in the BRICS Countries: A Markov-Switching Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kutu Adebayo Augustine


    Full Text Available This paper examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001 Markov-Switching Model (MSM and monthly data from 1994.01–2013.12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries’ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It can also be observed that the area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It has also been established that there is a high probability of moving from state one (recession to state two (expansion and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy, especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output.

  7. Two-dimensional modeling of x-ray output from switched foil implosions on Procyon (United States)

    Bowers, R. L.; Nakafuji, G.; Greene, A. E.; McLenithan, K. D.; Peterson, D. L.; Roderick, N. F.


    A series of two-dimensional radiation magnetohydrodynamic calculations are presented of a Z-pinch implosion using a plasma flow switch. Results from a recent experiment using the high explosive driven generator Procyon, which delivered 16.5 MA to a plasma flow switch and switched about 15 MA into a static load, are used to study the implosion of a 29 mg load foil [J. H. Goforth et al., ``Review of the Procyon Explosive Pulsed Power System,'' in Ninth IEEE Pulsed Power Conference, June 1993, Albuquerque, edited by K. R. Prestwich and W. L. Baker (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Piscataway, NJ, 1993), p. 36]. The interaction of the switch with the load plasma and the effects of background plasma on the total radiation output is examined. Models which assume ideal switching are also included. Also included are the effects of perturbations in the load plasma which may be associated with initial vaporization of the load foil. If the background plasma density in the switch region and in the load region does not affect the dynamics, the pinch is predicted to produce a total radiation output of about 4 MJ. Including perturbations of the load plasma associated with switching and assuming a background plasma density after switching in excess of 10-7 g/cm3 results in a total output from the pinch of about 0.6 MJ.

  8. Input-Output Modeling for Urban Energy Consumption in Beijing: Dynamics and Comparison (United States)

    Zhang, Lixiao; Hu, Qiuhong; Zhang, Fan


    Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect) energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making. PMID:24595199

  9. Reactive Power Pricing Model Considering the Randomness of Wind Power Output (United States)

    Dai, Zhong; Wu, Zhou


    With the increase of wind power capacity integrated into grid, the influence of the randomness of wind power output on the reactive power distribution of grid is gradually highlighted. Meanwhile, the power market reform puts forward higher requirements for reasonable pricing of reactive power service. Based on it, the article combined the optimal power flow model considering wind power randomness with integrated cost allocation method to price reactive power. Meanwhile, considering the advantages and disadvantages of the present cost allocation method and marginal cost pricing, an integrated cost allocation method based on optimal power flow tracing is proposed. The model realized the optimal power flow distribution of reactive power with the minimal integrated cost and wind power integration, under the premise of guaranteeing the balance of reactive power pricing. Finally, through the analysis of multi-scenario calculation examples and the stochastic simulation of wind power outputs, the article compared the results of the model pricing and the marginal cost pricing, which proved that the model is accurate and effective.

  10. Variation in the Mississippi River Plume from Data Synthesis of Model Outputs and MODIS Imagery (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, C.; Kolker, A.; Chu, P. Y.


    Understanding the Mississippi River (MR) plume's interaction with the open ocean is crucial for understanding many processes in the Gulf of Mexico. Though the Mississippi River and its delta and plume have been studied extensively, recent archives of model products and satellite imagery have allowed us to highlight patterns in plume behavior over the last two decades through large scale data synthesis. Using 8 years of USGS discharge data and Landsat imagery, we identified the spatial extent, geographic patterns, depth, and freshwater concentration of the MR plume across seasons and years. Using 20 years of HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) analysis and reanalysis model output, and several years of NGOFS FVCOM model outputs, we mapped the minimum and maximum spatial area of the MR plume, and its varied extent east and west. From the synthesis and analysis of these data, the statistical probability of the MR plume's spatial area and geographical extent were computed. Measurements of the MR plume and its response to river discharge may predict future behavior and provide a path forward to understanding MR plume influence on nearby ecosystems.

  11. Multidimensional Taylor Network Optimal Control of MIMO Nonlinear Systems without Models for Tracking by Output Feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Ming Sun


    Full Text Available The actual controlled objects are generally multi-input and multioutput (MIMO nonlinear systems with imprecise models or even without models, so it is one of the hot topics in the control theory. Due to the complex internal structure, the general control methods without models tend to be based on neural networks. However, the neuron of neural networks includes the exponential function, which contributes to the complexity of calculation, making the neural network control unable to meet the real-time requirements. The newly developed multidimensional Taylor network (MTN requires only addition and multiplication, so it is easy to realize real-time control. In the present study, the MTN approach is extended to MIMO nonlinear systems without models to realize adaptive output feedback control. The MTN controller is proposed to guarantee the stability of the closed-loop system. Our experimental results show that the output signals of the system are bounded and the tracking error goes nearly to zero. The MTN optimal controller is proven to promise far better real-time dynamic performance and robustness than the BP neural network self-adaption reconstitution controller.

  12. Output and inflation in models of the business cycle with\\ud nominal rigidities: some counterfactual evidence


    Paez-Farrell, Juan; Cardiff University


    This paper examines the relationship between cyclical output and inflation in models commonly used for monetary policy analysis. This includes models that incorporate the New Keynesian, Fuhrer-Moore and backward-looking Phillips curves. The main finding is that these models imply a strong negative relationship between inflation and output, a result that is at odds with the data. The fact that New Keynesian models yield counterfactual implications is not new; the novelty of the paper lies in t...

  13. Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs (United States)

    Wilby, Robert L.


    Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

  14. ARX model-based damage sensitive features for structural damage localization using output-only measurements (United States)

    Roy, Koushik; Bhattacharya, Bishakh; Ray-Chaudhuri, Samit


    The study proposes a set of four ARX model (autoregressive model with exogenous input) based damage sensitive features (DSFs) for structural damage detection and localization using the dynamic responses of structures, where the information regarding the input excitation may not be available. In the proposed framework, one of the output responses of a multi-degree-of-freedom system is assumed as the input and the rest are considered as the output. The features are based on ARX model coefficients, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test statistical distance, and the model residual error. At first, a mathematical formulation is provided to establish the relation between the change in ARX model coefficients and the normalized stiffness of a structure. KS test parameters are then described to show the sensitivity of statistical distance of ARX model residual error with the damage location. The efficiency of the proposed set of DSFs is evaluated by conducting numerical studies involving a shear building and a steel moment-resisting frame. To simulate the damage scenarios in these structures, stiffness degradation of different elements is considered. It is observed from this study that the proposed set of DSFs is good indicator for damage location even in the presence of damping, multiple damages, noise, and parametric uncertainties. The performance of these DSFs is compared with mode shape curvature-based approach for damage localization. An experimental study has also been conducted on a three-dimensional six-storey steel moment frame to understand the performance of these DSFs under real measurement conditions. It has been observed that the proposed set of DSFs can satisfactorily localize damage in the structure.

  15. A Water-Withdrawal Input-Output Model of the Indian Economy. (United States)

    Bogra, Shelly; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Mathur, Ritu


    Managing freshwater allocation for a highly populated and growing economy like India can benefit from knowledge about the effect of economic activities. This study transforms the 2003-2004 economic input-output (IO) table of India into a water withdrawal input-output model to quantify direct and indirect flows. This unique model is based on a comprehensive database compiled from diverse public sources, and estimates direct and indirect water withdrawal of all economic sectors. It distinguishes between green (rainfall), blue (surface and ground), and scarce groundwater. Results indicate that the total direct water withdrawal is nearly 3052 billion cubic meter (BCM) and 96% of this is used in agriculture sectors with the contribution of direct green water being about 1145 BCM, excluding forestry. Apart from 727 BCM direct blue water withdrawal for agricultural, other significant users include "Electricity" with 64 BCM, "Water supply" with 44 BCM and other industrial sectors with nearly 14 BCM. "Construction", "miscellaneous food products"; "Hotels and restaurants"; "Paper, paper products, and newsprint" are other significant indirect withdrawers. The net virtual water import is found to be insignificant compared to direct water used in agriculture nationally, while scarce ground water associated with crops is largely contributed by northern states.

  16. An improved hydrometeor detection method for millimeter-wavelength cloud radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ge


    Full Text Available A modified method with a new noise reduction scheme that can reduce the noise distribution to a narrow range is proposed to distinguish clouds and other hydrometeors from noise and recognize more features with weak signal in cloud radar observations. A spatial filter with central weighting, which is widely used in cloud radar hydrometeor detection algorithms, is also applied in our method to examine radar return for significant levels of signals. Square clouds were constructed to test our algorithm and the method used for the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurements Program millimeter-wavelength cloud radar. We also applied both the methods to 6 months of cloud radar observations at the Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University and compared the results. It was found that our method has significant advantages in reducing the rates of both failed negative and false positive hydrometeor identifications in simulated clouds and recognizing clouds with weak signal from our cloud radar observations.

  17. Wavelet transform-vector quantization compression of supercomputer ocean model simulation output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, J N; Brislawn, C M


    We describe a new procedure for efficient compression of digital information for storage and transmission purposes. The algorithm involves a discrete wavelet transform subband decomposition of the data set, followed by vector quantization of the wavelet transform coefficients using application-specific vector quantizers. The new vector quantizer design procedure optimizes the assignment of both memory resources and vector dimensions to the transform subbands by minimizing an exponential rate-distortion functional subject to constraints on both overall bit-rate and encoder complexity. The wavelet-vector quantization method, which originates in digital image compression. is applicable to the compression of other multidimensional data sets possessing some degree of smoothness. In this paper we discuss the use of this technique for compressing the output of supercomputer simulations of global climate models. The data presented here comes from Semtner-Chervin global ocean models run at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and at the Los Alamos Advanced Computing Laboratory.

  18. Low Cardiac Output Leads Hepatic Fibrosis in Right Heart Failure Model Rats (United States)

    Fujimoto, Yoshitaka; Urashima, Takashi; Shimura, Daisuke; Ito, Reiji; Kawachi, Sadataka; Kajimura, Ichige; Akaike, Toru; Kusakari, Yoichiro; Fujiwara, Masako; Ogawa, Kiyoshi; Goda, Nobuhito; Ida, Hiroyuki; Minamisawa, Susumu


    Background Hepatic fibrosis progresses with right heart failure, and becomes cardiac cirrhosis in a severe case. Although its causal factor still remains unclear. Here we evaluated the progression of hepatic fibrosis using a pulmonary artery banding (PAB)-induced right heart failure model and investigated whether cardiac output (CO) is responsible for the progression of hepatic fibrosis. Methods and Results Five-week-old Sprague-Dawley rats divided into the PAB and sham-operated control groups. After 4 weeks from operation, we measured CO by echocardiography, and hepatic fibrosis ratio by pathological examination using a color analyzer. In the PAB group, CO was significantly lower by 48% than that in the control group (78.2±27.6 and 150.1±31.2 ml/min, Pright failure heart model rats. PMID:26863419

  19. Towards a bulk approach to local interactions of hydrometeors (United States)

    Baumgartner, Manuel; Spichtinger, Peter


    The growth of small cloud droplets and ice crystals is dominated by the diffusion of water vapor. Usually, Maxwell's approach to growth for isolated particles is used in describing this process. However, recent investigations show that local interactions between particles can change diffusion properties of cloud particles. In this study we develop an approach for including these local interactions into a bulk model approach. For this purpose, a simplified framework of local interaction is proposed and governing equations are derived from this setup. The new model is tested against direct simulations and incorporated into a parcel model framework. Using the parcel model, possible implications of the new model approach for clouds are investigated. The results indicate that for specific scenarios the lifetime of cloud droplets in subsaturated air may be longer (e.g., for an initially water supersaturated air parcel within a downdraft). These effects might have an impact on mixed-phase clouds, for example in terms of riming efficiencies.

  20. Puget Sound ocean acidification model outputs - Modeling the impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems and populations (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...

  1. Neural Systems with Numerically Matched Input-Output Statistic: Isotonic Bivariate Statistical Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Fiori


    Full Text Available Bivariate statistical modeling from incomplete data is a useful statistical tool that allows to discover the model underlying two data sets when the data in the two sets do not correspond in size nor in ordering. Such situation may occur when the sizes of the two data sets do not match (i.e., there are “holes” in the data or when the data sets have been acquired independently. Also, statistical modeling is useful when the amount of available data is enough to show relevant statistical features of the phenomenon underlying the data. We propose to tackle the problem of statistical modeling via a neural (nonlinear system that is able to match its input-output statistic to the statistic of the available data sets. A key point of the new implementation proposed here is that it is based on look-up-table (LUT neural systems, which guarantee a computationally advantageous way of implementing neural systems. A number of numerical experiments, performed on both synthetic and real-world data sets, illustrate the features of the proposed modeling procedure.

  2. Generalisation benefits of output gating in a model of prefrontal cortex (United States)

    Kriete, Trent; Noelle, David C.


    The prefrontal cortex (PFC) plays a central role in flexible cognitive control, including the suppression of habitual responding in favour of situation-appropriate behaviours that can be quite novel. PFC provides a kind of working memory, maintaining the rules, goals, and/or actions that are to control behaviour in the current context. For flexible control, these PFC representations must be sufficiently componential to support systematic generalisation to novel situations. The anatomical structure of PFC can be seen as implementing a componential 'slot-filler' structure, with different components encoded over isolated pools of neurons. Previous PFC models have highlighted the importance of a dynamic gating mechanism to selectively update individual 'slot' contents. In this article, we present simulation results that suggest that systematic generalisation also requires an 'output gating' mechanism that limits the influence of PFC on more posterior brain areas to reflect a small number of representational components at any one time.

  3. A comparative verification of high resolution precipitation forecasts using model output statistics (United States)

    van der Plas, Emiel; Schmeits, Maurice; Hooijman, Nicolien; Kok, Kees


    Verification of localized events such as precipitation has become even more challenging with the advent of high-resolution meso-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). The realism of a forecast suggests that it should compare well against precipitation radar imagery with similar resolution, both spatially and temporally. Spatial verification methods solve some of the representativity issues that point verification gives rise to. In this study a verification strategy based on model output statistics is applied that aims to address both double penalty and resolution effects that are inherent to comparisons of NWP models with different resolutions. Using predictors based on spatial precipitation patterns around a set of stations, an extended logistic regression (ELR) equation is deduced, leading to a probability forecast distribution of precipitation for each NWP model, analysis and lead time. The ELR equations are derived for predictands based on areal calibrated radar precipitation and SYNOP observations. The aim is to extract maximum information from a series of precipitation forecasts, like a trained forecaster would. The method is applied to the non-hydrostatic model Harmonie (2.5 km resolution), Hirlam (11 km resolution) and the ECMWF model (16 km resolution), overall yielding similar Brier skill scores for the 3 post-processed models, but larger differences for individual lead times. Besides, the Fractions Skill Score is computed using the 3 deterministic forecasts, showing somewhat better skill for the Harmonie model. In other words, despite the realism of Harmonie precipitation forecasts, they only perform similarly or somewhat better than precipitation forecasts from the 2 lower resolution models, at least in the Netherlands.

  4. Towards Measures to Establish the Relevance of Climate Model Output for Decision Support (United States)

    Clarke, L.; Smith, L. A.


    to weight climate model output in the decision process; one obvious example is the question of over what spatial and time averages modelers expect information in current climate distributions to be robust. The IPCC itself suggests continental/seasonal, while distributions over 10's of kilometers/hourly is on offer. Our aim here is not to resolve this discrepancy, but to develop methods with which it can be addressed. This is illustrated in the context of using another physically based, imperfect model setting: using Newton's laws in an actual case of NASA hazard evaluation. Our aim is to develop transparent standards of good practice managing expectations, which will allow model improvements over the next decades to be seen as progress by the users of climate science.

  5. Prediction of Francis Turbine Prototype Part Load Pressure and Output Power Fluctuations with Hydroelectric Model (United States)

    Alligné, S.; Nicolet, C.; Béguin, A.; Landry, C.; Gomes, J.; Avellan, F.


    The prediction of pressure and output power fluctuations amplitudes on Francis turbine prototype is a challenge for hydro-equipment industry since it is subjected to guarantees to ensure smooth and reliable operation of the hydro units. The European FP7 research project Hyperbole aims to setup a methodology to transpose the pressure fluctuations induced by the cavitation vortex rope from the reduced scale model to the prototype generating units. A Francis turbine unit of 444MW with a specific speed value of ν = 0.29, is considered as case study. A SIMSEN model of the power station including electrical system, controllers, rotating train and hydraulic system with transposed draft tube excitation sources is setup. Based on this model, a frequency analysis of the hydroelectric system is performed for all technologies to analyse potential interactions between hydraulic excitation sources and electrical components. Three technologies have been compared: the classical fixed speed configuration with Synchronous Machine (SM) and the two variable speed technologies which are Doubly Fed Induction Machine (DFIM) and Full Size Frequency Converter (FSFC).

  6. Statistical downscaling of regional climate model output to achieve projections of precipitation extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric M. Laflamme


    Full Text Available In this work we perform a statistical downscaling by applying a CDF transformation function to local-level daily precipitation extremes (from NCDC station data and corresponding NARCCAP regional climate model (RCM output to derive local-scale projections. These high-resolution projections are essential in assessing the impacts of projected climate change. The downscaling method is performed on 58 locations throughout New England, and from the projected distribution of extreme precipitation local-level 25-year return levels are calculated. To obtain uncertainty estimates for return levels, three procedures are employed: a parametric bootstrapping with mean corrected confidence intervals, a non-parametric bootstrapping with BCa (bias corrected and acceleration intervals, and a Bayesian model. In all cases, results are presented via distributions of differences in return levels between predicted and historical periods. Results from the three procedures show very few New England locations with significant increases in 25-year return levels from the historical to projected periods. This may indicate that projected trends in New England precipitation tend to be statistically less significant than suggested by many studies. For all three procedures, downscaled results are highly dependent on RCM and GCM model choice.

  7. A computational model-based validation of Guyton's analysis of cardiac output and venous return curves (United States)

    Mukkamala, R.; Cohen, R. J.; Mark, R. G.


    Guyton developed a popular approach for understanding the factors responsible for cardiac output (CO) regulation in which 1) the heart-lung unit and systemic circulation are independently characterized via CO and venous return (VR) curves, and 2) average CO and right atrial pressure (RAP) of the intact circulation are predicted by graphically intersecting the curves. However, this approach is virtually impossible to verify experimentally. We theoretically evaluated the approach with respect to a nonlinear, computational model of the pulsatile heart and circulation. We developed two sets of open circulation models to generate CO and VR curves, differing by the manner in which average RAP was varied. One set applied constant RAPs, while the other set applied pulsatile RAPs. Accurate prediction of intact, average CO and RAP was achieved only by intersecting the CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs because of the pulsatility and nonlinearity (e.g., systemic venous collapse) of the intact model. The CO and VR curves generated with pulsatile RAPs were also practically independent. This theoretical study therefore supports the validity of Guyton's graphical analysis.

  8. Does the DHET research output subsidy model penalise high-citation publication? A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yolande X. Harley


    Full Text Available South African universities are awarded annual subsidy from the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET based on their research publication output. Journal article subsidy is based on the number of research publications in DHET-approved journals as well as the proportional contribution of authors from the university. Co-authorship with other institutions reduces the subsidy received by a university, which may be a disincentive to collaboration. Inter-institutional collaboration may affect the scientific impact of resulting publications, as indicated by the number of citations received. We analysed 812 journal articles published in 2011 by authors from the University of Cape Town’s Faculty of Health Sciences to determine if there was a significant relationship between subsidy units received and (1 citation count and (2 field-weighted citation impact. We found that subsidy units had a significant inverse relationship with both citation count (r= -0.247; CI = -0.311 – -0.182; p"less than"0.0001 and field-weighted citation impact (r= -0.192; CI= -0.258 – -0.125; p"less than"0.0001. These findings suggest that the annual subsidy awarded to universities for research output may inadvertently penalise high-citation publication. Revision of the funding model to address this possibility would better align DHET funding allocation with the strategic plans of the South African Department of Science and Technology, the National Research Foundation and the South African Medical Research Council, and may better support publication of greater impact research.

  9. Impacts of manure application on SWAT model outputs in the Xiangxi River watershed (United States)

    Liu, Ruimin; Wang, Qingrui; Xu, Fei; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia


    SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model has been widely used to simulate agricultural non-point source (ANPS) pollution; however, the impacts of livestock manure application on SWAT model outputs have not been well studied. The objective of this study was to investigate the environmental effects of livestock manure application based on the SWAT model in the Xiangxi River watershed, which is one of the largest tributaries of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China. Three newly-built manure databases (NB) were created and applied to different subbasins based on the actual livestock manure discharging amount. The calibration and validation values of SWAT model outputs obtained from the NB manure application and the original mixed (OM) manure were compared. The study results are as follows: (1) The livestock industry of Xingshan County developed quickly between 2005 and 2015. The downstream of the Xiangxi River (Huangliang, Shuiyuesi and Xiakou) had the largest livestock amount, and largely accounted for manure, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) production (>50%). (2) The NB manure application resulted in less phosphorus pollution (1686.35 kg for ORGP and 31.70 kg for MINP) than the OM manure application. Compared with the upstream, the downstream was influenced more by the manure application. (3) The SWAT results obtained from the NB manure had a better calibration and validation values than those from the OM manure. For ORGP, R2 and NSE values were 0.77 and 0.65 for the NB manure calibration; and the same values for the OM manure were 0.72 and 0.61, respectively. For MINP, R2 values were 0.65 and 0.62 for the NB manure and the OM manure, and the NSE values were 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The results indicated that the built-in fertilizer database in SWAT has its limitation because it is set up for the simulation in the USA. Thus, when livestock manure is considered in a SWAT simulation, a newly built fertilizer database needs to be set up to represent

  10. Generic uncertainty model for DETRA for environmental consequence analyses. Application and sample outputs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suolanen, V.; Ilvonen, M. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland). Nuclear Energy


    Computer model DETRA applies a dynamic compartment modelling approach. The compartment structure of each considered application can be tailored individually. This flexible modelling method makes it possible that the transfer of radionuclides can be considered in various cases: aquatic environment and related food chains, terrestrial environment, food chains in general and food stuffs, body burden analyses of humans, etc. In the former study on this subject, modernization of the user interface of DETRA code was carried out. This new interface works in Windows environment and the usability of the code has been improved. The objective of this study has been to further develop and diversify the user interface so that also probabilistic uncertainty analyses can be performed by DETRA. The most common probability distributions are available: uniform, truncated Gaussian and triangular. The corresponding logarithmic distributions are also available. All input data related to a considered case can be varied, although this option is seldomly needed. The calculated output values can be selected as monitored values at certain simulation time points defined by the user. The results of a sensitivity run are immediately available after simulation as graphical presentations. These outcomes are distributions generated for varied parameters, density functions of monitored parameters and complementary cumulative density functions (CCDF). An application considered in connection with this work was the estimation of contamination of milk caused by radioactive deposition of Cs (10 kBq(Cs-137)/m{sup 2}). The multi-sequence calculation model applied consisted of a pasture modelling part and a dormant season modelling part. These two sequences were linked periodically simulating the realistic practice of care taking of domestic animals in Finland. The most important parameters were varied in this exercise. The performed diversifying of the user interface of DETRA code seems to provide an

  11. Using ex ante output elicitation to model state-contingent technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chambers, R.G.; Serra, T.; Stefanou, S.E.


    Survey-elicited ex ante outputs are used to develop an empirical representation of an Arrow–Debreu–Savage state-contingent technology in an activity-analysis framework. An empirical test of output-cubicality is developed for that framework. We apply those tools to assess production characteristics

  12. CLPX-Model: Rapid Update Cycle 40km (RUC-40) Model Output Reduced Data, Version 1 (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Rapid Update Cycle, version 2 at 40km (RUC-2, known to the Cold Land Processes community as RUC40) model is a Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS)...

  13. Model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the Gulf of California (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the northern Gulf of California, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  14. Atlantis model outputs - Developing end-to-end models of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The purpose of this project is to develop spatially discrete end-to-end models of the California Current LME, linking oceanography, biogeochemistry, food web...

  15. Modelling Implicit Communication in Multi-Agent Systems with Hybrid Input/Output Automata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Capiluppi


    Full Text Available We propose an extension of Hybrid I/O Automata (HIOAs to model agent systems and their implicit communication through perturbation of the environment, like localization of objects or radio signals diffusion and detection. To this end we decided to specialize some variables of the HIOAs whose values are functions both of time and space. We call them world variables. Basically they are treated similarly to the other variables of HIOAs, but they have the function of representing the interaction of each automaton with the surrounding environment, hence they can be output, input or internal variables. Since these special variables have the role of simulating implicit communication, their dynamics are specified both in time and space, because they model the perturbations induced by the agent to the environment, and the perturbations of the environment as perceived by the agent. Parallel composition of world variables is slightly different from parallel composition of the other variables, since their signals are summed. The theory is illustrated through a simple example of agents systems.

  16. Uncertainty Modeling and Robust Output Feedback Control of Nonlinear Discrete Systems: A Mathematical Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olav Slupphaug


    Full Text Available We present a mathematical programming approach to robust control of nonlinear systems with uncertain, possibly time-varying, parameters. The uncertain system is given by different local affine parameter dependent models in different parts of the state space. It is shown how this representation can be obtained from a nonlinear uncertain system by solving a set of continuous linear semi-infinite programming problems, and how each of these problems can be solved as a (finite series of ordinary linear programs. Additionally, the system representation includes control- and state constraints. The controller design method is derived from Lyapunov stability arguments and utilizes an affine parameter dependent quadratic Lyapunov function. The controller has a piecewise affine output feedback structure, and the design amounts to finding a feasible solution to a set of linear matrix inequalities combined with one spectral radius constraint on the product of two positive definite matrices. A local solution approach to this nonconvex feasibility problem is proposed. Complexity of the design method and some special cases such as state- feedback are discussed. Finally, an application of the results is given by proposing an on-line computationally feasible algorithm for constrained nonlinear state- feedback model predictive control with robust stability.

  17. Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis. (United States)

    Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo


    Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Linear summation of outputs in a balanced network model of motor cortex. (United States)

    Capaday, Charles; van Vreeswijk, Carl


    Given the non-linearities of the neural circuitry's elements, we would expect cortical circuits to respond non-linearly when activated. Surprisingly, when two points in the motor cortex are activated simultaneously, the EMG responses are the linear sum of the responses evoked by each of the points activated separately. Additionally, the corticospinal transfer function is close to linear, implying that the synaptic interactions in motor cortex must be effectively linear. To account for this, here we develop a model of motor cortex composed of multiple interconnected points, each comprised of reciprocally connected excitatory and inhibitory neurons. We show how non-linearities in neuronal transfer functions are eschewed by strong synaptic interactions within each point. Consequently, the simultaneous activation of multiple points results in a linear summation of their respective outputs. We also consider the effects of reduction of inhibition at a cortical point when one or more surrounding points are active. The network response in this condition is linear over an approximately two- to three-fold decrease of inhibitory feedback strength. This result supports the idea that focal disinhibition allows linear coupling of motor cortical points to generate movement related muscle activation patterns; albeit with a limitation on gain control. The model also explains why neural activity does not spread as far out as the axonal connectivity allows, whilst also explaining why distant cortical points can be, nonetheless, functionally coupled by focal disinhibition. Finally, we discuss the advantages that linear interactions at the cortical level afford to motor command synthesis.

  19. Three-scale input-output modeling for urban economy: Carbon emission by Beijing 2007 (United States)

    Chen, G. Q.; Guo, Shan; Shao, Ling; Li, J. S.; Chen, Zhan-Ming


    For urban economies, an ecological endowment embodiment analysis has to be supported by endowment intensities at both the international and domestic scales to reflect the international and domestic imports of increasing importance. A three-scale input-output modeling for an urban economy to give nine categories of embodiment fluxes is presented in this paper by a case study on the carbon dioxide emissions by the Beijing economy in 2007, based on the carbon intensities for the average world and national economies. The total direct emissions are estimated at 1.03E+08 t, in which 91.61% is energy-related emissions. By the modeling, emissions embodied in fixed capital formation amount to 7.20E+07 t, emissions embodied in household consumption are 1.58 times those in government consumption, and emissions in gross capital formation are 14.93% more than those in gross consumption. As a net exporter of carbon emissions, Beijing exports 5.21E+08 t carbon embodied in foreign imported commodities and 1.06E+08 t in domestic imported commodities, while emissions embodied in foreign and domestic imported commodities are 3.34E+07 and 1.75E+08 t respectively. The algorithm presented in this study is applicable to the embodiment analysis of other environmental resources for regional economies characteristic of multi-scales.

  20. Finding the Root Causes of Statistical Inconsistency in Community Earth System Model Output (United States)

    Milroy, D.; Hammerling, D.; Baker, A. H.


    Baker et al (2015) developed the Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) to provide a metric for software quality assurance by determining statistical consistency between an ensemble of CESM outputs and new test runs. The test has proved useful for detecting statistical difference caused by compiler bugs and errors in physical modules. However, detection is only the necessary first step in finding the causes of statistical difference. The CESM is a vastly complex model comprised of millions of lines of code which is developed and maintained by a large community of software engineers and scientists. Any root cause analysis is correspondingly challenging. We propose a new capability for CESM-ECT: identifying the sections of code that cause statistical distinguishability. The first step is to discover CESM variables that cause CESM-ECT to classify new runs as statistically distinct, which we achieve via Randomized Logistic Regression. Next we use a tool developed to identify CESM components that define or compute the variables found in the first step. Finally, we employ the application Kernel GENerator (KGEN) created in Kim et al (2016) to detect fine-grained floating point differences. We demonstrate an example of the procedure and advance a plan to automate this process in our future work.

  1. Spatial connections in regional climate model rainfall outputs at different temporal scales: Application of network theory (United States)

    Naufan, Ihsan; Sivakumar, Bellie; Woldemeskel, Fitsum M.; Raghavan, Srivatsan V.; Vu, Minh Tue; Liong, Shie-Yui


    Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall has always been a great challenge, and the impacts of climate change further complicate this issue. The present study employs the concepts of complex networks to study the spatial connections in rainfall, with emphasis on climate change and rainfall scaling. Rainfall outputs (during 1961-1990) from a regional climate model (i.e. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that downscaled the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses) over Southeast Asia are studied, and data corresponding to eight different temporal scales (6-hr, 12-hr, daily, 2-day, 4-day, weekly, biweekly, and monthly) are analyzed. Two network-based methods are applied to examine the connections in rainfall: clustering coefficient (a measure of the network's local density) and degree distribution (a measure of the network's spread). The influence of rainfall correlation threshold (T) on spatial connections is also investigated by considering seven different threshold levels (ranging from 0.5 to 0.8). The results indicate that: (1) rainfall networks corresponding to much coarser temporal scales exhibit properties similar to that of small-world networks, regardless of the threshold; (2) rainfall networks corresponding to much finer temporal scales may be classified as either small-world networks or scale-free networks, depending upon the threshold; and (3) rainfall spatial connections exhibit a transition phase at intermediate temporal scales, especially at high thresholds. These results suggest that the most appropriate model for studying spatial connections may often be different at different temporal scales, and that a combination of small-world and scale-free network models might be more appropriate for rainfall upscaling/downscaling across all scales, in the strict sense of scale-invariance. The results also suggest that spatial connections in the studied rainfall networks in Southeast Asia are


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.N.M.P. Simamora


    Full Text Available Efficiency condition occurs when the value of the used outputs compared to the resource total that has been used almost close to the value 1 (absolute environment. An instrument to achieve efficiency if the power output level has decreased significantly in the life of the instrument used, if it compared to the previous condition, when the instrument is not equipped with additional systems (or proposed model improvement. Even more effective if the inputs model that are used in unison to achieve a homogeneous output. On this research has been designed and implemented the automatic control system for models of single input-dual-output, wherein the sampling instruments used are lamp and fan. Source voltage used is AC (alternate-current and tested using quantitative research methods and instrumentation (with measuring instruments are observed. The results obtained demonstrate the efficiency of the instrument experienced a significant current model of single-input-dual-output applied separately instrument trials such as lamp and fan when it compared to the condition or state before. And the result show that the design has been built, can also run well.

  3. A Hierarchical multi-input and output Bi-GRU Model for Sentiment Analysis on Customer Reviews (United States)

    Zhang, Liujie; Zhou, Yanquan; Duan, Xiuyu; Chen, Ruiqi


    Multi-label sentiment classification on customer reviews is a practical challenging task in Natural Language Processing. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical multi-input and output model based bi-directional recurrent neural network, which both considers the semantic and lexical information of emotional expression. Our model applies two independent Bi-GRU layer to generate part of speech and sentence representation. Then the lexical information is considered via attention over output of softmax activation on part of speech representation. In addition, we combine probability of auxiliary labels as feature with hidden layer to capturing crucial correlation between output labels. The experimental result shows that our model is computationally efficient and achieves breakthrough improvements on customer reviews dataset.

  4. Beyond R 0: Demographic Models for Variability of Lifetime Reproductive Output (United States)

    Caswell, Hal


    The net reproductive rate measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants). PMID:21738586

  5. Ecological input-output modeling for embodied resources and emissions in Chinese economy 2005 (United States)

    Chen, Z. M.; Chen, G. Q.; Zhou, J. B.; Jiang, M. M.; Chen, B.


    For the embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions in Chinese economy 2005, a biophysical balance modeling is carried out based on an extension of the economic input-output table into an ecological one integrating the economy with its various environmental driving forces. Included resource flows into the primary resource sectors and environmental emission flows from the primary emission sectors belong to seven categories as energy resources in terms of fossil fuels, hydropower and nuclear energy, biomass, and other sources; freshwater resources; greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2, CH4, and N2O; industrial wastes in terms of waste water, waste gas, and waste solid; exergy in terms of fossil fuel resources, biological resources, mineral resources, and environmental resources; solar emergy and cosmic emergy in terms of climate resources, soil, fossil fuels, and minerals. The resulted database for embodiment intensity and sectoral embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions is of essential implications in context of systems ecology and ecological economics in general and of global climate change in particular.

  6. Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hahmann, Andrea N.; Vincent, Claire Louise; Peña, Alfredo


    setup parameters. The results of the year-long sensitivity simulations show that the long-term mean wind speed simulated by the WRF model offshore in the region studied is quite insensitive to the global reanalysis, the number of vertical levels, and the horizontal resolution of the sea surface...... temperature used as lower boundary conditions. Also, the strength and form (grid vs spectral) of the nudging is quite irrelevant for the mean wind speed at 100 m. Large sensitivity is found to the choice of boundary layer parametrization, and to the length of the period that is discarded as spin-up to produce...

  7. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali


    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  8. Modeling and notation of DEA with strong and weak disposable outputs. (United States)

    Kuntz, Ludwig; Sülz, Sandra


    Recent articles published in Health Care Management Science have described DEA applications under the assumption of strong and weak disposable outputs. As we confidently assume that these papers include some methodical deficiencies, we aim to illustrate a revised approach.

  9. Catchment virtual observatory for sharing flow and transport models outputs: using residence time distribution to compare contrasting catchments (United States)

    Thomas, Zahra; Rousseau-Gueutin, Pauline; Kolbe, Tamara; Abbott, Ben; Marcais, Jean; Peiffer, Stefan; Frei, Sven; Bishop, Kevin; Le Henaff, Geneviève; Squividant, Hervé; Pichelin, Pascal; Pinay, Gilles; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald


    The distribution of groundwater residence time in a catchment provides synoptic information about catchment functioning (e.g. nutrient retention and removal, hydrograph flashiness). In contrast with interpreted model results, which are often not directly comparable between studies, residence time distribution is a general output that could be used to compare catchment behaviors and test hypotheses about landscape controls on catchment functioning. In this goal, we created a virtual observatory platform called Catchment Virtual Observatory for Sharing Flow and Transport Model Outputs (COnSOrT). The main goal of COnSOrT is to collect outputs from calibrated groundwater models from a wide range of environments. By comparing a wide variety of catchments from different climatic, topographic and hydrogeological contexts, we expect to enhance understanding of catchment connectivity, resilience to anthropogenic disturbance, and overall functioning. The web-based observatory will also provide software tools to analyze model outputs. The observatory will enable modelers to test their models in a wide range of catchment environments to evaluate the generality of their findings and robustness of their post-processing methods. Researchers with calibrated numerical models can benefit from observatory by using the post-processing methods to implement a new approach to analyzing their data. Field scientists interested in contributing data could invite modelers associated with the observatory to test their models against observed catchment behavior. COnSOrT will allow meta-analyses with community contributions to generate new understanding and identify promising pathways forward to moving beyond single catchment ecohydrology. Keywords: Residence time distribution, Models outputs, Catchment hydrology, Inter-catchment comparison

  10. Modeling DPOAE input/output function compression: comparisons with hearing thresholds. (United States)

    Bhagat, Shaum P


    Basilar membrane input/output (I/O) functions in mammalian animal models are characterized by linear and compressed segments when measured near the location corresponding to the characteristic frequency. A method of studying basilar membrane compression indirectly in humans involves measuring distortion-product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE) I/O functions. Previous research has linked compression estimates from behavioral growth-of-masking functions to hearing thresholds. The aim of this study was to compare compression estimates from DPOAE I/O functions and hearing thresholds at 1 and 2 kHz. A prospective correlational research design was performed. The relationship between DPOAE I/O function compression estimates and hearing thresholds was evaluated with Pearson product-moment correlations. Normal-hearing adults (n = 16) aged 22-42 yr were recruited. DPOAE I/O functions (L₂ = 45-70 dB SPL) and two-interval forced-choice hearing thresholds were measured in normal-hearing adults. A three-segment linear regression model applied to DPOAE I/O functions supplied estimates of compression thresholds, defined as breakpoints between linear and compressed segments and the slopes of the compressed segments. Pearson product-moment correlations between DPOAE compression estimates and hearing thresholds were evaluated. A high correlation between DPOAE compression thresholds and hearing thresholds was observed at 2 kHz, but not at 1 kHz. Compression slopes also correlated highly with hearing thresholds only at 2 kHz. The derivation of cochlear compression estimates from DPOAE I/O functions provides a means to characterize basilar membrane mechanics in humans and elucidates the role of compression in tone detection in the 1-2 kHz frequency range. American Academy of Audiology.

  11. Implementation of a Model Output Statistics based on meteorological variable screening for short‐term wind power forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranaboldo, Matteo; Giebel, Gregor; Codina, Bernat


    A combination of physical and statistical treatments to post‐process numerical weather predictions (NWP) outputs is needed for successful short‐term wind power forecasts. One of the most promising and effective approaches for statistical treatment is the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique....... In this study, a MOS based on multiple linear regression is proposed: the model screens the most relevant NWP forecast variables and selects the best predictors to fit a regression equation that minimizes the forecast errors, utilizing wind farm power output measurements as input. The performance of the method...... is evaluated in two wind farms, located in different topographical areas and with different NWP grid spacing. Because of the high seasonal variability of NWP forecasts, it was considered appropriate to implement monthly stratified MOS. In both wind farms, the first predictors were always wind speeds (at...

  12. Study of cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts with nonlinear output frequency response functions based on NARMAX modelling (United States)

    Huang, Honglan; Mao, Hanying; Mao, Hanling; Zheng, Weixue; Huang, Zhenfeng; Li, Xinxin; Wang, Xianghong


    Cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts plays a key role in the process of remanufacturing engineering and is related to the service safety of the remanufactured parts. In light of the nonlinear properties of used parts caused by cumulative fatigue damage, the based nonlinear output frequency response functions detection approach offers a breakthrough to solve this key problem. First, a modified PSO-adaptive lasso algorithm is introduced to improve the accuracy of the NARMAX model under impulse hammer excitation, and then, an effective new algorithm is derived to estimate the nonlinear output frequency response functions under rectangular pulse excitation, and a based nonlinear output frequency response functions index is introduced to detect the cumulative fatigue damage in used parts. Then, a novel damage detection approach that integrates the NARMAX model and the rectangular pulse is proposed for nonlinear output frequency response functions identification and cumulative fatigue damage detection of used parts. Finally, experimental studies of fatigued plate specimens and used connecting rod parts are conducted to verify the validity of the novel approach. The obtained results reveal that the new approach can detect cumulative fatigue damages of used parts effectively and efficiently and that the various values of the based nonlinear output frequency response functions index can be used to detect the different fatigue damages or working time. Since the proposed new approach can extract nonlinear properties of systems by only a single excitation of the inspected system, it shows great promise for use in remanufacturing engineering applications.

  13. Increasing and decreasing motor and cognitive output: a model of general action and inaction goals. (United States)

    Albarracín, Dolores; Handley, Ian M; Noguchi, Kenji; McCulloch, Kathleen C; Li, Hong; Leeper, Joshua; Brown, Rick D; Earl, Allison; Hart, William P


    General action and inaction goals can influence the amount of motor or cognitive output irrespective of the type of behavior in question, with the same stimuli producing trivial and important motor and cognitive manifestations normally viewed as parts of different systems. A series of experiments examined the effects of instilling general action and inaction goals using word primes, such as "action" and "rest." The first 5 experiments showed that the same stimuli influenced motor output, such as doodling on a piece of paper and eating, as well as cognitive output, such as recall and problem solving. The last 2 experiments supported the prediction that these diverse effects can result from the instigation of general action and inaction goals. Specifically, these last 2 studies confirmed that participants were motivated to achieve active or inactive states and that attaining them decreased the effects of the primes on behavior.

  14. ThinTool: a spreadsheet model to evaluate fuel reduction thinning cost, net energy output, and nutrient impacts (United States)

    Sang-Kyun Han; Han-Sup Han; William J. Elliot; Edward M. Bilek


    We developed a spreadsheet-based model, named ThinTool, to evaluate the cost of mechanical fuel reduction thinning including biomass removal, to predict net energy output, and to assess nutrient impacts from thinning treatments in northern California and southern Oregon. A combination of literature reviews, field-based studies, and contractor surveys was used to...

  15. Coordination between Understanding Historic Buildings and BIM Modelling: A 3D-Output Oriented and typological Data Capture Method (United States)

    Li, K.; Li, S. J.; Liu, Y.; Wang, W.; Wu, C.


    At the present, in trend of shifting the old 2D-output oriented survey to a new 3D-output oriented survey based on BIM technology, the corresponding working methods and workflow for data capture, process, representation, etc. have to be changed.Based on case study of two buildings in the Summer Palace of Beijing, and Jiayuguan Pass at the west end of the Great Wall (both World Heritage sites), this paper puts forward a "structure-and-type method" by means of typological method used in archaeology, Revit family system, and the tectonic logic of building to realize a good coordination between understanding of historic buildings and BIM modelling.

  16. Modeling and analysis of dual-output piezoelectric transformer operating at the thickness-shear vibration mode. (United States)

    Du, Jinlong; Hu, Junhui; Tseng, King-Jet; Kai, Chen Shu; Siong, Goh Chee


    In our previous study, the multioutput piezoelectric transformer operating at the thickness-shear vibration mode was proposed and experimentally investigated. By designing a new construction of support and lead wire connection, a power density of 52.7 W/cm3 and a total output power of 169.8 W were achieved at a temperature rise less than 20 degrees C. In this work, a theoretical model was developed for the dual-output piezoelectric transformer operating at the thickness-shear vibration mode. The equivalent circuit parameters of the piezoelectric transformer were derived. Based on this, the impedance characteristics, equivalent inductance, capacitance ratio, voltage gain, and efficiency of the piezoelectric transformer were calculated. The theoretical results were verified by experimental data. Furthermore, the effect of the transformer size on the voltage gain, efficiency, output power and power density, and the effect of the load of one output on the voltage gain of another output were analyzed. Some useful guidelines were achieved by these analyses.

  17. The input and output management of solid waste using DEA models: A case study at Jengka, Pahang (United States)

    Mohamed, Siti Rosiah; Ghazali, Nur Fadzrina Mohd; Mohd, Ainun Hafizah


    Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as a tool for obtaining performance indices has been used extensively in several of organizations sector. The ways to improve the efficiency of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is impractical because some of inputs and outputs are uncontrollable and in certain situation its produce weak efficiency which often reflect the impact for operating environment. Based on the data from Alam Flora Sdn. Bhd Jengka, the researcher wants to determine the efficiency of solid waste management (SWM) in town Jengka Pahang using CCRI and CCRO model of DEA and duality formulation with vector average input and output. Three input variables (length collection in meter, frequency time per week in hour and number of garbage truck) and 2 outputs variables (frequency collection and the total solid waste collection in kilogram) are analyzed. As a conclusion, it shows only three roads from 23 roads are efficient that achieve efficiency score 1. Meanwhile, 20 other roads are in an inefficient management.

  18. Boolean modeling of neural systems with point-process inputs and outputs. Part I: theory and simulations. (United States)

    Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; Zanos, Theodoros P; Berger, Theodore W


    This paper presents a new modeling approach for neural systems with point-process (spike) inputs and outputs that utilizes Boolean operators (i.e. modulo 2 multiplication and addition that correspond to the logical AND and OR operations respectively, as well as the AND_NOT logical operation representing inhibitory effects). The form of the employed mathematical models is akin to a "Boolean-Volterra" model that contains the product terms of all relevant input lags in a hierarchical order, where terms of order higher than first represent nonlinear interactions among the various lagged values of each input point-process or among lagged values of various inputs (if multiple inputs exist) as they reflect on the output. The coefficients of this Boolean-Volterra model are also binary variables that indicate the presence or absence of the respective term in each specific model/system. Simulations are used to explore the properties of such models and the feasibility of their accurate estimation from short data-records in the presence of noise (i.e. spurious spikes). The results demonstrate the feasibility of obtaining reliable estimates of such models, with excitatory and inhibitory terms, in the presence of considerable noise (spurious spikes) in the outputs and/or the inputs in a computationally efficient manner. A pilot application of this approach to an actual neural system is presented in the companion paper (Part II).

  19. Decreased Hering-Breuer input-output entrainment in a mouse model of Rett syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishi R Dhingra


    Full Text Available Rett syndrome, a severe X-linked neurodevelopmental disorder caused by mutations in the gene encoding methyl-CpG-binding protein 2 (Mecp2, is associated with a highly irregular respiratory pattern including severe upper-airway dysfunction. Recent work suggests that hyperexcitability of the Hering-Breuer reflex (HBR pathway contributes to respiratory dysrhythmia in Mecp2 mutant mice. To assess how enhanced HBR input impacts respiratory entrainment by sensory afferents in closed-loop in vivo-like conditions, we investigated the input (vagal stimulus trains – output (phrenic bursting entrainment via the HBR in wild-type and Mecp2-deficient mice. Using the in situ perfused brainstem preparation, which maintains an intact pontomedullary axis capable of generating an in vivo-like respiratory rhythm in the absence of the HBR, we mimicked the HBR feedback input by stimulating the vagus nerve (at threshold current, 0.5 ms pulse duration, 75 Hz pulse frequency, 100 ms train duration at an inter-burst frequency matching that of the intrinsic oscillation of the inspiratory motor output of each preparation. Using this approach, we observed significant input-output entrainment in wild-type mice as measured by the maximum of the cross-correlation function, the peak of the instantaneous relative phase distribution, and the mutual information of the instantaneous phases. This entrainment was associated with a reduction in inspiratory duration during feedback stimulation. In contrast, the strength of input-output entrainment was significantly weaker in Mecp2-/+ mice. However, Mecp2-/+ mice also had a reduced inspiratory duration during stimulation, indicating that reflex behavior in the HBR pathway was intact. Together, these observations suggest that the respiratory network compensates for enhanced sensitivity of HBR inputs by reducing HBR input-output entrainment.

  20. A utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage: Theoretical model, experimental verification and energy storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangyi Zhang


    Full Text Available In this paper, a utility piezoelectric energy harvester with low frequency and high-output voltage is presented. Firstly, the harvester’s three theoretical models are presented, namely the static model, the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model. By analyzing the influence of the mass ratio of the mass block to the beam on output characteristics of the harvester, we compare the quasi static model and the dynamic vibration model and then define their applicable ranges. Secondly, simulation and experiments are done to verify the models, using the harvester with PZT-5H piezoelectric material, which are proved to be consistent with each other. The experimental results show that the output open-circuit voltage and the output power can reach up to 86.36V and 27.5mW respectively. The experiments are conducted when this harvester system is excited by the first modal frequency (58.90Hz with the acceleration 10m/s2. In this low frequency vibration case, it is easy to capture the energy in the daily environment. In addition, LTC 3588-1 chip (Linear Technology Corporation is used as the medium energy circuit to transfer charges from the PZT-5H electrode to the 0.22F 5V super capacitor and ML621 rechargeable button battery. For this super-capacitor, it takes about 100min for the capacitor voltage to rise from 0V to 3.6V. For this button battery, it takes about 200min to increase the battery voltage from 2.5V to 3.48V.

  1. A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xiuli; Moreno, Blanca; García, Ana Salomé


    A combined forecast of Grey forecasting method and neural network back propagation model, which is called Grey Neural Network and Input-Output Combined Forecasting Model (GNF-IO model), is proposed. A real case of energy consumption forecast is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The GNF-IO model predicts coal, crude oil, natural gas, renewable and nuclear primary energy consumption volumes by Spain's 36 sub-sectors from 2010 to 2015 according to three different GDP growth scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). Model test shows that the proposed model has higher simulation and forecasting accuracy on energy consumption than Grey models separately and other combination methods. The forecasts indicate that the primary energies as coal, crude oil and natural gas will represent on average the 83.6% percent of the total of primary energy consumption, raising concerns about security of supply and energy cost and adding risk for some industrial production processes. Thus, Spanish industry must speed up its transition to an energy-efficiency economy, achieving a cost reduction and increase in the level of self-supply. - Highlights: • Forecasting System Using Grey Models combined with Input-Output Models is proposed. • Primary energy consumption in Spain is used to validate the model. • The grey-based combined model has good forecasting performance. • Natural gas will represent the majority of the total of primary energy consumption. • Concerns about security of supply, energy cost and industry competitiveness are raised.

  2. Semi-Automated Processing of Trajectory Simulator Output Files for Model Evaluation (United States)


    DD-MM-YYYY) January 2018 2. REPORT TYPE Technical Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 1 November 2017–12 December 2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE... value of the method for several GTRAJ output files. The programs were written in Python (version 3.5) and would require some modification for...table), and mean and median values for each MET data source (lower table). Azimuth is in mils and % refers to percent radial distance (aka % range

  3. The Battlefield Environment Division Modeling Framework (BMF). Part 2. Serial and Parallel Output Enhancements (United States)


    use of object-oriented program ( OOP ) design. Here we extend BMF to include IO functionality for serial and distributed compute configurations. The...error prone, or tedious operations in source code by using object-oriented program ( OOP ) design. Here we extend BMF to include IO functionality for...actual routines defined in the output libraries (e.g., HDF5 v1.8.12) are accessed via wrapper functions that employ the Fortran-C language bridge

  4. Does the DHET research output subsidy model penalise high-citation publication? A case study


    Yolande X. Harley; Esmari Huysamen; Carlette Hlungwani; Tania S. Douglas


    South African universities are awarded annual subsidy from the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) based on their research publication output. Journal article subsidy is based on the number of research publications in DHET-approved journals as well as the proportional contribution of authors from the university. Co-authorship with other institutions reduces the subsidy received by a university, which may be a disincentive to collaboration. Inter-institutional collaboration may ...

  5. Modelling the effects of cell-to-cell variability on the output of interconnected gene networks in bacterial populations. (United States)

    Politi, Nicolò; Pasotti, Lorenzo; Zucca, Susanna; Magni, Paolo


    The interconnection of quantitatively characterized biological devices may lead to composite systems with apparently unpredictable behaviour. Context-dependent variability of biological parts has been investigated in several studies, measuring its entity and identifying the factors contributing to variability. Such studies rely on the experimental analysis of model systems, by quantifying reporter genes via population or single-cell approaches. However, cell-to-cell variability is not commonly included in predictability analyses, thus relying on predictive models trained and tested on central tendency values. This work aims to study in silico the effects of cell-to-cell variability on the population-averaged output of interconnected biological circuits. The steady-state deterministic transfer function of individual devices was described by Hill equations and lognormal synthetic noise was applied to their output. Two- and three-module networks were studied, where individual devices implemented inducible/repressible functions. The single-cell output of such networks was simulated as a function of noise entity; their population-averaged output was computed and used to investigate the expected variability in transfer function identification. The study was extended by testing different noise models, module logic, intrinsic/extrinsic noise proportions and network configurations. First, the transfer function of an individual module was identified from simulated data of a two-module network. The estimated parameter variability among different noise entities was limited (14%), while a larger difference was observed (up to 62%) when estimated and true parameters were compared. Thus, low-variability parameter estimates can be obtained for different noise entities, although deviating from the true parameters, whose measurement requires noise knowledge. Second, the black-box input-output function of a two/three-module network was predicted from the knowledge of the transfer

  6. AirSWOT observations versus hydrodynamic model outputs of water surface elevation and slope in a multichannel river (United States)

    Altenau, Elizabeth H.; Pavelsky, Tamlin M.; Moller, Delwyn; Lion, Christine; Pitcher, Lincoln H.; Allen, George H.; Bates, Paul D.; Calmant, Stéphane; Durand, Michael; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Smith, Laurence C.


    Anabranching rivers make up a large proportion of the world's major rivers, but quantifying their flow dynamics is challenging due to their complex morphologies. Traditional in situ measurements of water levels collected at gauge stations cannot capture out of bank flows and are limited to defined cross sections, which presents an incomplete picture of water fluctuations in multichannel systems. Similarly, current remotely sensed measurements of water surface elevations (WSEs) and slopes are constrained by resolutions and accuracies that limit the visibility of surface waters at global scales. Here, we present new measurements of river WSE and slope along the Tanana River, AK, acquired from AirSWOT, an airborne analogue to the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. Additionally, we compare the AirSWOT observations to hydrodynamic model outputs of WSE and slope simulated across the same study area. Results indicate AirSWOT errors are significantly lower than model outputs. When compared to field measurements, RMSE for AirSWOT measurements of WSEs is 9.0 cm when averaged over 1 km squared areas and 1.0 cm/km for slopes along 10 km reaches. Also, AirSWOT can accurately reproduce the spatial variations in slope critical for characterizing reach-scale hydraulics, while model outputs of spatial variations in slope are very poor. Combining AirSWOT and future SWOT measurements with hydrodynamic models can result in major improvements in model simulations at local to global scales. Scientists can use AirSWOT measurements to constrain model parameters over long reach distances, improve understanding of the physical processes controlling the spatial distribution of model parameters, and validate models' abilities to reproduce spatial variations in slope. Additionally, AirSWOT and SWOT measurements can be assimilated into lower-complexity models to try and approach the accuracies achieved by higher-complexity models.

  7. The assessment of different models to predict solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for Nis, Serbia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pantic, Lana S.; Pavlović, Tomislav M.; Milosavljević, Dragana D.; Radonjic, Ivana S.; Radovic, Miodrag K.; Sazhko, Galina


    Five different models for calculating solar module temperature, output power and efficiency for sunny days with different solar radiation intensities and ambient temperatures are assessed in this paper. Thereafter, modeled values are compared to the experimentally obtained values for the horizontal solar module in Nis, Serbia. The criterion for determining the best model was based on the statistical analysis and the agreement between the calculated and the experimental values. The calculated values of solar module temperature are in good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones, with some variations over and under the measured values. The best agreement between calculated and experimentally obtained values was for summer months with high solar radiation intensity. The nonlinear model for calculating the output power is much better than the linear model and at the same time predicts better the total electrical energy generated by the solar module during the day. The nonlinear model for calculating the solar module efficiency predicts the efficiency higher than the STC (Standard Test Conditions) value of solar module efficiency for all conditions, while the linear model predicts the solar module efficiency very well. This paper provides a simple and efficient guideline to estimate relevant parameters of a monocrystalline silicon solar module under the moderate-continental climate conditions. - Highlights: • Linear model for solar module temperature gives accurate predictions for August. • The nonlinear model better predicts the solar module power than the linear model. • For calculating solar module power for Nis we propose the nonlinear model. • For calculating solar model efficiency for Nis we propose adoption of linear model. • The adopted models can be used for calculations throughout the year.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domozhirov D. A.


    Full Text Available The article demonstrates the possibilities of spatial analysis provided by the Agent-Based Multiregional Input - Output Model (ABMIOM of the Russian economy. The basic hypothesis of the ABMIOM is that agents’ decisions at the microeconomic level lead to spatial changes at the macro level. Confirmation of this hypothesis requires experimental calculations with changes in various parameters that influence agents’ decisions (such as prices, taxes, tariffs, etc.. Analyzing the results of these calculations requires moving from microeconomic data to the macro level. The paper proposes a method for the structural analysis of the model simulation results using input-output tables. The method involves statistical aggregation of calculation results, construction of regional, national and interregional input-output tables and structural analysis of the obtained tables including calculation of regional Leontief multipliers. The method proposed is used to study the influence of the level of transport costs on the geographical structure of trade flows. The results of the experiments confirmed that with the increase of transportation costs economic agents prefer to interact with nearest agents, which leads to a decreased interregional commodity exchange and to economic «insulation» of the regions.

  9. A neural network based computational model to predict the output power of different types of photovoltaic cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WenBo Xiao

    Full Text Available In this article, we introduced an artificial neural network (ANN based computational model to predict the output power of three types of photovoltaic cells, mono-crystalline (mono-, multi-crystalline (multi-, and amorphous (amor- crystalline. The prediction results are very close to the experimental data, and were also influenced by numbers of hidden neurons. The order of the solar generation power output influenced by the external conditions from smallest to biggest is: multi-, mono-, and amor- crystalline silicon cells. In addition, the dependences of power prediction on the number of hidden neurons were studied. For multi- and amorphous crystalline cell, three or four hidden layer units resulted in the high correlation coefficient and low MSEs. For mono-crystalline cell, the best results were achieved at the hidden layer unit of 8.

  10. Coordination between Understanding Historic Buildings and BIM Modelling: A 3D-Output Oriented and typological Data Capture Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li


    Full Text Available At the present, in trend of shifting the old 2D-output oriented survey to a new 3D-output oriented survey based on BIM technology, the corresponding working methods and workflow for data capture, process, representation, etc. have to be changed.Based on case study of two buildings in the Summer Palace of Beijing, and Jiayuguan Pass at the west end of the Great Wall (both World Heritage sites, this paper puts forward a “structure-and-type method” by means of typological method used in archaeology, Revit family system, and the tectonic logic of building to realize a good coordination between understanding of historic buildings and BIM modelling.

  11. Calculation and decomposition of indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption in China based on the input–output model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Qin; Peng Xizhe; Wu Kaiya


    Based on the input–output model and the comparable price input–output tables, the current paper investigates the indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption in China in 1992–2005, and examines the impacts on the emissions using the structural decomposition method. The results demonstrate that the rise of the residential consumption level played a dominant role in the growth of residential indirect emissions. The persistent decline of the carbon emission intensity of industrial sectors presented a significant negative effect on the emissions. The change in the intermediate demand of industrial sectors resulted in an overall positive effect, except in the initial years. The increase in population prompted the indirect emissions to a certain extent; however, population size is no longer the main reason for the growth of the emissions. The change in the consumption structure showed a weak positive effect, demonstrating the importance for China to control and slow down the increase in the emissions while in the process of optimizing the residential consumption structure. The results imply that the means for restructuring the economy and improving efficiency, rather than for lowering the consumption scale, should be adopted by China to achieve the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction. - Highlights: ► We build the input–output model of indirect carbon emissions from residential consumption. ► We calculate the indirect emissions using the comparable price input–output tables. ► We examine the impacts on the indirect emissions using the structural decomposition method. ► The change in the consumption structure showed a weak positive effect on the emissions. ► China's population size is no longer the main reason for the growth of the emissions.

  12. Current and future groundwater recharge in West Africa as estimated from a range of coupled climate model outputs (United States)

    Verhoef, Anne; Cook, Peter; Black, Emily; Macdonald, David; Sorensen, James


    This research addresses the terrestrial water balance for West Africa. Emphasis is on the prediction of groundwater recharge and how this may change in the future, which has relevance to the management of surface and groundwater resources. The study was conducted as part of the BRAVE research project, "Building understanding of climate variability into planning of groundwater supplies from low storage aquifers in Africa - Second Phase", funded under the NERC/DFID/ESRC Programme, Unlocking the Potential of Groundwater for the Poor (UPGro). We used model output data of water balance components (precipitation, surface and subsurface run-off, evapotranspiration and soil moisture content) from ERA-Interim/ERA-LAND reanalysis, CMIP5, and high resolution model runs with HadGEM3 (UPSCALE; Mizielinski et al., 2014), for current and future time-periods. Water balance components varied widely between the different models; variation was particularly large for sub-surface runoff (defined as drainage from the bottom-most soil layer of each model). In-situ data for groundwater recharge obtained from the peer-reviewed literature were compared with the model outputs. Separate off-line model sensitivity studies with key land surface models were performed to gain understanding of the reasons behind the model differences. These analyses were centered on vegetation, and soil hydraulic parameters. The modelled current and future recharge time series that had the greatest degree of confidence were used to examine the spatiotemporal variability in groundwater storage. Finally, the implications for water supply planning were assessed. Mizielinski, M.S. et al., 2014. High-resolution global climate modelling: the UPSCALE project, a large-simulation campaign. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(4), pp.1629-1640.

  13. Site compare scripts and output (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Monthly site compare scripts and output used to generate the model/ob plots and statistics in the manuscript. The AQS hourly site compare output files are not...

  14. AFSC/REFM: FEAST (Forage Euphausiid in Space and Time NPRB B.70 Model output for 1970-2009 Hindcast (Run V146), Kerim Aydin and Andre Punt (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weekly biophysical and fish model output of FEAST. Part of The Bering Sea Project, FEAST is a high resolution (~10km2) spatial model that uses a Regional Ocean...

  15. A hybrid input–output multi-objective model to assess economic–energy–environment trade-offs in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, Ariovaldo Lopes de; Antunes, Carlos Henggeler; Freire, Fausto; Henriques, Carla Oliveira


    A multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) model based on a hybrid Input–Output (IO) framework is presented. This model aims at assessing the trade-offs between economic, energy, environmental (E3) and social objectives in the Brazilian economic system. This combination of multi-objective models with Input–Output Analysis (IOA) plays a supplementary role in understanding the interactions between the economic and energy systems, and the corresponding impacts on the environment, offering a consistent framework for assessing the effects of distinct policies on these systems. Firstly, the System of National Accounts (SNA) is reorganized to include the National Energy Balance, creating a hybrid IO framework that is extended to assess Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and the employment level. The objective functions considered are the maximization of GDP (gross domestic product) and employment levels, as well as the minimization of energy consumption and GHG emissions. An interactive method enabling a progressive and selective search of non-dominated solutions with distinct characteristics and underlying trade-offs is utilized. Illustrative results indicate that the maximization of GDP and the employment levels lead to an increase of both energy consumption and GHG emissions, while the minimization of either GHG emissions or energy consumption cause negative impacts on GDP and employment. - Highlights: • A hybrid Input–Output multi-objective model is applied to the Brazilian economy. • Objective functions are GDP, employment level, energy consumption and GHG emissions. • Interactive search process identifies trade-offs between the competing objectives. • Positive correlations between GDP growth and employment. • Positive correlations between energy consumption and GHG emissions

  16. Atlantis Modeled Output Data for the Coral Reef Ecosystems of Guam (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis Coral Reef Ecosystem Model has been developed and an added coral module to the Atlantis framework has been validated. The model is...

  17. Microphysical variability of vigorous Amazonian deep convection observed by CloudSat, and relevance for cloud-resolving model (United States)

    Dodson, J. B.; Taylor, P. C.


    The number and varieties of both satellite cloud observations and cloud simulations are increasing rapidly. This create a challenge in identifying the best methods for quantifying the physical processes associated with deep convection, and then comparing convective observations with simulations. The use of satellite simulators in conjunction with model output is an increasingly popular method of comparison studies. However, the complexity of deep convective systems renders simplistic comparison metrics hazardous, possibly resulting is misleading or even contradicting conclusions. To investigate this, CloudSat observations of Amazonian deep convective cores (DCCs) and associated anvils are compared and contrasted with output from cloud resolving models in a manner that both highlights microphysical proprties of observed convection, and displays the effects of microphysical parameterizations on allowing robust comparisons. First, contoured frequency by altitude diagrams (CFAD) are calculated from the reflectivity fields of DCCs observed by CloudSat. This reveals two distinct modes of hydrometeor variability in the high level cloud region, with one dominated by snow and aggregates, and the other by large graupel and hail. Second, output from the superparameterized Community Atmospheric Model (SP-CAM) data are processed with the Quickbeam radar simulator to produce CFADs which can be compared with the observed CFADs. Two versions of SP-CAM are used, with one (version 4) having single-moment microphysics which excludes graupel/hail, and the other (version 5) a double-moment scheme with graupel. The change from version 4 to 5 improves the reflectivity CFAD, even without corresponding changes to non-hydrometeor fields such as vertical velocity. However, it does not produce a realistic double hydrometeor mode. Finally, the influences of microphysics are further tested in the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM), which allows for higher control over model parameters than

  18. Linear and Non-linear Multi-Input Multi-Output Model Predictive Control of Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muayad Al-Qaisy


    Full Text Available In this article, multi-input multi-output (MIMO linear model predictive controller (LMPC based on state space model and nonlinear model predictive controller based on neural network (NNMPC are applied on a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR. The idea is to have a good control system that will be able to give optimal performance, reject high load disturbance, and track set point change. In order to study the performance of the two model predictive controllers, MIMO Proportional-Integral-Derivative controller (PID strategy is used as benchmark. The LMPC, NNMPC, and PID strategies are used for controlling the residual concentration (CA and reactor temperature (T. NNMPC control shows a superior performance over the LMPC and PID controllers by presenting a smaller overshoot and shorter settling time.

  19. A formal statistical approach to representing uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling with focus on residual analysis and probabilistic output evaluation - Distinguishing simulation and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik


    evaluation of the modelled output, and we attach particular importance to inspecting the residuals of the model outputs and improving the model uncertainty description. We also introduce the probabilistic performance measures sharpness, reliability and interval skill score for model comparison...... and for checking the reliability of the confidence bounds. Using point rainfall and evaporation data as input and flow measurements from a sewer system for model conditioning, a state space model is formulated that accounts for three different flow contributions: wastewater from households, and fast rainfall......-runoff from paved areas and slow rainfall-dependent infiltration-inflow from unknown sources. We consider two different approaches to evaluate the model output uncertainty, the output error method that lumps all uncertainty into the observation noise term, and a method based on Stochastic Differential...

  20. Embodied water analysis for Hebei Province, China by input-output modelling (United States)

    Liu, Siyuan; Han, Mengyao; Wu, Xudong; Wu, Xiaofang; Li, Zhi; Xia, Xiaohua; Ji, Xi


    With the accelerating coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, regional economic integration is recognized as a national strategy. As water scarcity places Hebei Province in a dilemma, it is of critical importance for Hebei Province to balance water resources as well as make full use of its unique advantages in the transition to sustainable development. To our knowledge, related embodied water accounting analysis has been conducted for Beijing and Tianjin, while similar works with the focus on Hebei are not found. In this paper, using the most complete and recent statistics available for Hebei Province, the embodied water use in Hebei Province is analyzed in detail. Based on input-output analysis, it presents a complete set of systems accounting framework for water resources. In addition, a database of embodied water intensity is proposed which is applicable to both intermediate inputs and final demand. The result suggests that the total amount of embodied water in final demand is 10.62 billion m3, of which the water embodied in urban household consumption accounts for more than half. As a net embodied water importer, the water embodied in the commodity trade in Hebei Province is 17.20 billion m3. The outcome of this work implies that it is particularly urgent to adjust industrial structure and trade policies for water conservation, to upgrade technology and to improve water utilization. As a result, to relieve water shortages in Hebei Province, it is of crucial importance to regulate the balance of water use within the province, thus balancing water distribution in the various industrial sectors.

  1. Comparison of Model Output of Wind and Wave Parameters with Spaceborne Altimeter Measurements

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hwang, Paul


    .... While comparisons with point measurements from discrete and sparsely distributed wave buoys provide some measure of statistical confidence, the spatial distribution of the modeled wind and wave...

  2. Markov Modeling of Component Fault Growth Over A Derived Domain of Feasible Output Control Effort Modifications (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper introduces a novel Markov process formulation of stochastic fault growth modeling, in order to facilitate the development and analysis of...

  3. Industrial and ecological cumulative exergy consumption of the United States via the 1997 input-output benchmark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ukidwe, Nandan U.; Bakshi, Bhavik R.


    This paper develops a thermodynamic input-output (TIO) model of the 1997 United States economy that accounts for the flow of cumulative exergy in the 488-sector benchmark economic input-output model in two different ways. Industrial cumulative exergy consumption (ICEC) captures the exergy of all natural resources consumed directly and indirectly by each economic sector, while ecological cumulative exergy consumption (ECEC) also accounts for the exergy consumed in ecological systems for producing each natural resource. Information about exergy consumed in nature is obtained from the thermodynamics of biogeochemical cycles. As used in this work, ECEC is analogous to the concept of emergy, but does not rely on any of its controversial claims. The TIO model can also account for emissions from each sector and their impact and the role of labor. The use of consistent exergetic units permits the combination of various streams to define aggregate metrics that may provide insight into aspects related to the impact of economic sectors on the environment. Accounting for the contribution of natural capital by ECEC has been claimed to permit better representation of the quality of ecosystem goods and services than ICEC. The results of this work are expected to permit evaluation of these claims. If validated, this work is expected to lay the foundation for thermodynamic life cycle assessment, particularly of emerging technologies and with limited information

  4. a mathematical model for predicting output in an oilfield in the niger

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    In this paper, a multiple linear regression model was developed for forecasting crude oil production volume in an. , a multiple linear regression model was developed for forecasting crude oil production volume in an oilfield in the Niger Delta area oilfield in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria. Data of crude oil production volume ...

  5. A Mathematical Model for Predicting Output in an Oilfield in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, a multiple linear regression model was developed for forecasting crude oil production volume in an oilfield in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria. Data of crude oil production volume and six significant parameters affecting crude oil volume were collected for a two year window. A six variable linear model was ...

  6. Comparison of Soil Moisture in Switzerland Using In-Situ Measurements and Model Output (United States)

    Mittelbach, H.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.


    Soil moisture is an essential contributor to land surface- atmosphere interactions. In this study we evaluate the two Land surface models CLM3.5 and SIB3 regarding their performance in simulating soil moisture and its anomalies for the one year period 01.09.2009 to 31.08.2010. Four grassland sites from the SwissSMEX/- Veg project were used as reference soil moisture data. In general, both models represent the soil moisture anomalies and their distribution better than the absolute soil moisture. Furthermore, both models show a seasonal dependence of the correlation and root mean square error. In contrast to the SIB3 model, the CLM3.5 model shows stronger seasonal variation of the root mean square error and a larger interquantile range for soil moisture anomalies.

  7. Discovering the energy, economic and environmental potentials of urban wastes: An input–output model for a metropolis case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Junnian; Yang, Wei; Li, Zhaoling; Higano, Yoshiro; Wang, Xian’en


    Highlights: • A waste-to-energy system is constructed incorporating various urban wastes and technologies. • Waste-to-energy industries are formed and introduced into current socioeconomic system. • A novel input–output simulation model is developed and applied to a metropolis. • Complete energy, economic and environmental potentials of urban wastes are discovered. - Abstract: Tremendous amounts of wastes are generated in urban areas due to accelerating industrialization and urbanization. The current unreasonable waste disposal patterns and potential energy value of urban wastes necessitates the promotion of waste-to-energy implementation. This study is intent on discovering the complete energy, economic and environmental potentials of urban wastes taking municipal solid wastes, waste oil, organic wastewater and livestock manure into consideration. A waste-to-energy system is constructed incorporating these wastes and five waste-to-energy technologies. A novel input–output simulation model is developed and applied to a metropolis to introduce the waste-to-energy system into the current socioeconomic system and form five waste-to-energy industries. The trends in waste generation and energy recovery potential, economic benefits and greenhouse gas mitigation contribution for the study area are estimated and explored from 2011 to 2025. By 2025, biodiesel production and power generation could amount to 72.11 thousand t and 1.59 billion kW h respectively. Due to the highest energy recovery and the most subsidies, the organic wastewater biogas industry has the highest output and net profit, followed by the waste incineration power generation industry. In total 17.97 million t (carbon dioxide-equivalent) accumulative greenhouse gas emission could be mitigated. The organic wastewater biogas industry and waste incineration power generation industry are more advantageous for the study area in terms of better energy, economic and environmental performances. The

  8. Model outputs for each hotspot site to identify the likely environmental, economic and social effects of proposed remediation strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleskens, Luuk; Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike


    -explicit cost-benefit analysis to calculate the financial viability of technologies. After setting up the PESERA-DESMICE modelling system, a series of scenarios were designed to assess land degradation and land (biomass) productivity under different circumstances. A scenario typology including baseline...... scenarios, technology scenarios, policy scenarios, adoption scenarios and global scenarios was used for this purpose. A total of 65 different scenario simulations were performed for 22 different technologies in 12 study sites. The report first explains how the models were calibrated and how the scenarios...... and increase food production. A major bottleneck for adoption is financial viability. Low (zero) cost agronomic measures and other options that deliver important benefits in the short term are the preferred technologies. Stakeholder evaluation and model output mostly concur on this. There are important design...

  9. Review and Extension of Suitability Assessment Indicators of Weather Model Output for Analyzing Decentralized Energy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Schermeyer


    Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.

  10. Bioenergetics model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...

  11. Food web model output - Trophic impacts of bald eagles in the Puget Sound food web (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing models to examine the ecological roles of bald eagles in the Puget Sound region. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs, in collaboration...

  12. Using dynamically downscaled GCM outputs in hydrological models: a case study from Tasmania, Australia (United States)

    Bennett, J.; Grose, M.; Ling, F.; Corney, S.; Holz, G.; White, C.; Graham, B.; Post, D.; Bindoff, N.


    Modelling future runoff by running meteorological projections from global climate models (GCMs) directly through hydrological models presents considerable technical challenges, but promises several advantages over the so-called ‘perturbation method'. The Climate Futures for Tasmania project has projected water yield in Tasmania, Australia to 2100. This paper describes how the Climate Futures for Tasmania project used dynamically downscaled climate projections directly in hydrological models to produce useable information for water managers and industry. Tasmania is a difficult region for climate change hydrology studies. Tasmanian rainfall is generated by complex regional weather systems such as atmospheric blocking that are not always well-represented in GCM-scale projections. Further, the spatial resolution of GCMs is too coarse to represent the complex distribution of Tasmanian rainfall. Rainfall changes caused by changes in these regional weather systems may not be predicted by GCMs. Previous studies of climate change impacts on Tasmanian rivers have used the ‘perturbation method', where historical rainfall and evaporation data are modified to reflect changes predicted by GCMs. In this method rainfall events occur exactly as often as in the historical record - only the magnitude of events changes. This can mask long-term effects on runoff caused by changes in the timing or duration of rainfall events due to climate change. We avoided this problem by dynamically downscaling six GCMs with the regional climate model CCAM to a spatial resolution of 0.1 degrees under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. Dynamical downscaling is computing-intensive, but can simulate changes to rain-bearing weather systems (e.g. increases in convective storms). Downscaled hindcasts generally showed excellent spatial and temporal agreement with climate observations. However, some spatial biases were still evident. To account for these biases, modelled rainfall and evaporation were bias

  13. Comparison of squashing and self-consistent input-output models of quantum feedback (United States)

    Peřinová, V.; Lukš, A.; Křepelka, J.


    The paper (Yanagisawa and Hope, 2010) opens with two ways of analysis of a measurement-based quantum feedback. The scheme of the feedback includes, along with the homodyne detector, a modulator and a beamsplitter, which does not enable one to extract the nonclassical field. In the present scheme, the beamsplitter is replaced by the quantum noise evader, which makes it possible to extract the nonclassical field. We re-approach the comparison of two models related to the same scheme. The first one admits that in the feedback loop between the photon annihilation and creation operators, unusual commutation relations hold. As a consequence, in the feedback loop, squashing of the light occurs. In the second one, the description arrives at the feedback loop via unitary transformations. But it is obvious that the unitary transformation which describes the modulator changes even the annihilation operator of the mode which passes by the modulator which is not natural. The first model could be called "squashing model" and the second one could be named "self-consistent model". Although the predictions of the two models differ only a little and both the ways of analysis have their advantages, they have also their drawbacks and further investigation is possible.

  14. A stock-flow consistent input-output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions (United States)

    Berg, Matthew; Hartley, Brian; Richters, Oliver


    By synthesizing stock-flow consistent models, input-output models, and aspects of ecological macroeconomics, a method is developed to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. This paper highlights the linkages between the physical environment and the economic system by emphasizing the role of the energy industry. A conceptual model is developed in general form with an arbitrary number of sectors, while emphasizing connections with the agent-based, econophysics, and complexity economics literature. First, we use the model to challenge claims that 0% interest rates are a necessary condition for a stationary economy and conduct a stability analysis within the parameter space of interest rates and consumption parameters of an economy in stock-flow equilibrium. Second, we analyze the role of energy price shocks in contributing to recessions, incorporating several propagation and amplification mechanisms. Third, implied heat emissions from energy conversion and the effect of anthropogenic heat flux on climate change are considered in light of a minimal single-layer atmosphere climate model, although the model is only implicitly, not explicitly, linked to the economic model.

  15. Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models (United States)

    Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom


    The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve...

  16. On the internal model principle in formation control and in output synchronization of nonlinear systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Persis, Claudio De; Jayawardhana, Bayu


    The role of internal model principle is investigated in this paper in the context of collective synchronization and formation control problems. In the collective synchronization problem for nonlinear systems, we propose distributed control laws for passive systems which synchronize to the solution

  17. The River Basin Model: Computer Output. Water Pollution Control Research Series. (United States)

    Envirometrics, Inc., Washington, DC.

    This research report is part of the Water Pollution Control Research Series which describes the results and progress in the control and abatement of pollution in our nation's waters. The River Basin Model described is a computer-assisted decision-making tool in which a number of computer programs simulate major processes related to water use that…

  18. Robust fuzzy output feedback controller for affine nonlinear systems via T-S fuzzy bilinear model: CSTR benchmark. (United States)

    Hamdy, M; Hamdan, I


    In this paper, a robust H∞ fuzzy output feedback controller is designed for a class of affine nonlinear systems with disturbance via Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy bilinear model. The parallel distributed compensation (PDC) technique is utilized to design a fuzzy controller. The stability conditions of the overall closed loop T-S fuzzy bilinear model are formulated in terms of Lyapunov function via linear matrix inequality (LMI). The control law is robustified by H∞ sense to attenuate external disturbance. Moreover, the desired controller gains can be obtained by solving a set of LMI. A continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR), which is a benchmark problem in nonlinear process control, is discussed in detail to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach with a comparative study. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Earth System Model Development and Analysis using FRE-Curator and Live Access Servers: On-demand analysis of climate model output with data provenance. (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, A.; Balaji, V.; Schweitzer, R.; Nikonov, S.; O'Brien, K.; Vahlenkamp, H.; Burger, E. F.


    There are distinct phases in the development cycle of an Earth system model. During the model development phase, scientists make changes to code and parameters and require rapid access to results for evaluation. During the production phase, scientists may make an ensemble of runs with different settings, and produce large quantities of output, that must be further analyzed and quality controlled for scientific papers and submission to international projects such as the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). During this phase, provenance is a key concern:being able to track back from outputs to inputs. We will discuss one of the paths taken at GFDL in delivering tools across this lifecycle, offering on-demand analysis of data by integrating the use of GFDL's in-house FRE-Curator, Unidata's THREDDS and NOAA PMEL's Live Access Servers (LAS).Experience over this lifecycle suggests that a major difficulty in developing analysis capabilities is only partially the scientific content, but often devoted to answering the questions "where is the data?" and "how do I get to it?". "FRE-Curator" is the name of a database-centric paradigm used at NOAA GFDL to ingest information about the model runs into an RDBMS (Curator database). The components of FRE-Curator are integrated into Flexible Runtime Environment workflow and can be invoked during climate model simulation. The front end to FRE-Curator, known as the Model Development Database Interface (MDBI) provides an in-house web-based access to GFDL experiments: metadata, analysis output and more. In order to provide on-demand visualization, MDBI uses Live Access Servers which is a highly configurable web server designed to provide flexible access to geo-referenced scientific data, that makes use of OPeNDAP. Model output saved in GFDL's tape archive, the size of the database and experiments, continuous model development initiatives with more dynamic configurations add complexity and challenges in providing an on

  20. Output from Statistical Predictive Models as Input to eLearning Dashboards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlene A. Smith


    Full Text Available We describe how statistical predictive models might play an expanded role in educational analytics by giving students automated, real-time information about what their current performance means for eventual success in eLearning environments. We discuss how an online messaging system might tailor information to individual students using predictive analytics. The proposed system would be data-driven and quantitative; e.g., a message might furnish the probability that a student will successfully complete the certificate requirements of a massive open online course. Repeated messages would prod underperforming students and alert instructors to those in need of intervention. Administrators responsible for accreditation or outcomes assessment would have ready documentation of learning outcomes and actions taken to address unsatisfactory student performance. The article’s brief introduction to statistical predictive models sets the stage for a description of the messaging system. Resources and methods needed to develop and implement the system are discussed.

  1. Classification of Nitrate Polluting Activities through Clustering of Isotope Mixing Model Outputs. (United States)

    Xue, Dongmei; De Baets, Bernard; Van Cleemput, Oswald; Hennessy, Carmel; Berglund, Michael; Boeckx, Pascal


    Apportionment of nitrate (NO) sources in surface water and classification of monitoring locations according to NO polluting activities may help implementation of water quality control measures. In this study, we (i) evaluated a Bayesian isotopic mixing model (stable isotope analysis in R [SIAR]) for NO source apportionment using 2 yr of δN-NO and δO-NO data from 29 locations within river basins in Flanders (Belgium) and five expert-defined NO polluting activities, (ii) used the NO source contributions as input to an unsupervised learning algorithm (k-means clustering) to reclassify sampling locations into NO polluting activities, and (iii) assessed if a decision tree model of physicochemical data could retrieve the isotope-based and expert-defined classifications. Based on the SIAR and δB results, manure/sewage was identified as a major NO source, whereas soil N, fertilizer NO, and NH in fertilizer and rain were intermediate sources and NO in precipitation was a minor source. The k-means clustering algorithm allowed classification of NO polluting activities that corresponded well to the expert-defined classifications. A decision tree model of physicochemical parameters allowed us to correctly classify 50 to 100% of the sampling locations as compared with the k-means clustering approach. We suggest that NO polluting activities can be identified via clustering of NO source contributions from samples representing an entire river basin. Classification of future monitoring locations into these classes could use decision tree models based on physicochemical data. The latter approach holds a substantial degree of uncertainty but provides more inherent information for dedicated abatement strategies than monitoring of NO concentrations alone. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  2. Linking sediment fingerprinting and modeling outputs for a Spanish Pyrenean river catchment. (United States)

    Palazón, Leticia; Latorre, Borja; Gaspar, Leticia; Blake, Williams H.; Smith, Hugh G.; Navas, Ana


    Indirect techniques to study fine sediment redistribution in river catchments could provide unique and diverse information, which, when combined become a powerful tool to address catchment management problems. Such combinations could solve limitations of individual techniques and provide different lines of information to address a particular problem. The Barasona reservoir has suffered from siltation since its construction, with the loss of over one third of its storage volume in around 30 study years (period 1972-1996). Information on sediment production from tributary catchments for the reservoir is required to develop management plans for maintaining reservoir sustainability. Large spatial variability in sediment delivery was found in previous studies in the Barasona catchment and the major sediment sources identified included badlands developed in the middle part of the catchment and the agricultural fields in its lower part. From the diverse range of indirect techniques, fingerprinting sediment sources and computer models could be linked to obtain a more holistic view of the processes related to sediment redistribution in the Barasona river catchment (1509 km2, Central Spanish Pyrenees), which comprises agricultural and forest land uses. In the present study, the results from a fingerprinting procedure and the SWAT model were compared and combined to improve the knowledge of land use sediment source contributions to the reservoir. Samples from the study catchment were used to define soil parameters for the model and for fingerprinting the land use sources. The fingerprinting approach provided information about relative contributions from land use sources to the superficial sediment samples taken from the reservoir infill. The calibration and validation of the model provided valuable information, for example on the timescale of sediment production from the different land uses within the catchment. Linking results from both techniques enabled us to achieve a

  3. Influence of urban surface properties and rainfall characteristics on surface water flood outputs - insights from a physical modelling environment (United States)

    Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng


    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when excess rainfall from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flood events pose a major hazard to urban regions across the world, with nearly two thirds of flood damages in the UK being caused by surface water flood events. The perceived risk of surface water flooding appears to have increased in recent years due to several factors, including (i) precipitation increases associated with climatic change and variability; (ii) population growth meaning more people are occupying flood risk areas, and; (iii) land-use changes. Because urban areas are often associated with a high proportion of impermeable land-uses (e.g. tarmacked or paved surfaces and buildings) and a reduced coverage of vegetated, permeable surfaces, urban surface water flood risk during high intensity precipitation events is often exacerbated. To investigate the influence of urbanisation and terrestrial factors on surface water flood outputs, rainfall intensity, catchment slope, permeability, building density/layout scenarios were designed within a novel, 9m2 physical modelling environment. The two-tiered physical model used consists of (i) a low-cost, nozzle-type rainfall simulator component which is able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed rainfall events of varying duration and intensity, and; (ii) a reconfigurable, modular plot surface. All experiments within the physical modelling environment were subjected to a spatiotemporally uniform 45-minute simulated rainfall event, while terrestrial factors on the physical model plot surface were altered systematically to investigate their hydrological response on modelled outflow and depth profiles. Results from the closed, controlled physical modelling experiments suggest that meteorological factors, such as the duration and intensity of simulated rainfall, and terrestrial factors, such as model slope

  4. WATER TEMPERATURE, SALINITY, and currents speed from 2011-04-01 to 2013-07-30 from model output (NCEI Accession 0166079) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains output of a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution...

  5. WATER TEMPERATURE, SALINITY, and currents speed from 2011-04-01 to 2013-07-30 from model output (NCEI Accession 0131071) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data contains output of a regional implementation of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) at a 1-km spatial resolution...

  6. Model Predictive Current Control for High-Power Grid-Connected Converters with Output LCL Filter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delpino, Hernan Anres Miranda; Teodorescu, Remus; Rodriguez, Pedro


    A model predictive control strategy for a highpower, grid connected 3-level neutral clamped point converter is presented. Power losses constraints set a limit on commutation losses so reduced switching frequency is required, thus producing low frequency current harmonics. To reduce these harmonics...... an LCL filter is used. The proposed control strategy allows control of the active and reactive power fed into the grid, reduce the switching frequency within acceptable operational margins and keep balance of the DC-link capacitor voltages while avoiding excitation of the filter resonance frequencies....

  7. Surface air relative humidities spuriously exceeding 100% in CMIP5 model output and their impact on future projections (United States)

    Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Jylhä, Kirsti; Räisänen, Jouni; Mäkelä, Antti


    In 17 out of the 29 Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models examined in this work, near-surface air relative humidity (RH) frequently exceeded 100% with respect to ice in polar areas in winter. The degree of supersaturation varied considerably across the models, and the same evidently applies to the causes of the phenomenon. Consultations with the modeling groups revealed three categories of explanations for supersaturation occurrence: specification of RH with respect to ice rather than liquid water; inconsistencies in the determination of specific humidity and air temperature for the near-surface level; and the nonlinearity of saturated specific humidity as a function of temperature. Modeled global warming tended to reduce the artificial supersaturations, inducing a spurious negative trend in the future RH change. For example, over East Antarctica under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the multimodel mean RH would decrease by about 10% by the end of the ongoing century. Truncation of overly high RHs to a maximum value of 100% cut the RH response close to zero. In Siberia and northern North America, truncation even reversed the sign of the response. The institutes responsible for the CMIP6 model experiments should be aware of the supersaturation issue, and the algorithms used to produce near-surface RH should be developed to eliminate the problem before publishing the RH output data.

  8. Fault Modeling and Testing for Analog Circuits in Complex Space Based on Supply Current and Output Voltage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongzhi Hu


    Full Text Available This paper deals with the modeling of fault for analog circuits. A two-dimensional (2D fault model is first proposed based on collaborative analysis of supply current and output voltage. This model is a family of circle loci on the complex plane, and it simplifies greatly the algorithms for test point selection and potential fault simulations, which are primary difficulties in fault diagnosis of analog circuits. Furthermore, in order to reduce the difficulty of fault location, an improved fault model in three-dimensional (3D complex space is proposed, which achieves a far better fault detection ratio (FDR against measurement error and parametric tolerance. To address the problem of fault masking in both 2D and 3D fault models, this paper proposes an effective design for testability (DFT method. By adding redundant bypassing-components in the circuit under test (CUT, this method achieves excellent fault isolation ratio (FIR in ambiguity group isolation. The efficacy of the proposed model and testing method is validated through experimental results provided in this paper.

  9. A switchable light-input, light-output system modelled and constructed in yeast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozma-Bognar Laszlo


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Advances in synthetic biology will require spatio-temporal regulation of biological processes in heterologous host cells. We develop a light-switchable, two-hybrid interaction in yeast, based upon the Arabidopsis proteins PHYTOCHROME A and FAR-RED ELONGATED HYPOCOTYL 1-LIKE. Light input to this regulatory module allows dynamic control of a light-emitting LUCIFERASE reporter gene, which we detect by real-time imaging of yeast colonies on solid media. Results The reversible activation of the phytochrome by red light, and its inactivation by far-red light, is retained. We use this quantitative readout to construct a mathematical model that matches the system's behaviour and predicts the molecular targets for future manipulation. Conclusion Our model, methods and materials together constitute a novel system for a eukaryotic host with the potential to convert a dynamic pattern of light input into a predictable gene expression response. This system could be applied for the regulation of genetic networks - both known and synthetic.

  10. Self-validated Variance-based Methods for Sensitivity Analysis of Model Outputs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tong, C


    Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) has the advantage over local sensitivity analysis in that GSA does not require strong model assumptions such as linearity or monotonicity. As a result, GSA methods such as those based on variance decomposition are well-suited to multi-physics models, which are often plagued by large nonlinearities. However, as with many other sampling-based methods, inadequate sample size can badly pollute the result accuracies. A natural remedy is to adaptively increase the sample size until sufficient accuracy is obtained. This paper proposes an iterative methodology comprising mechanisms for guiding sample size selection and self-assessing result accuracy. The elegant features in the the proposed methodology are the adaptive refinement strategies for stratified designs. We first apply this iterative methodology to the design of a self-validated first-order sensitivity analysis algorithm. We also extend this methodology to design a self-validated second-order sensitivity analysis algorithm based on refining replicated orthogonal array designs. Several numerical experiments are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods.

  11. Use of weather research and forecasting model outputs to obtain near-surface refractive index structure constant over the ocean. (United States)

    Qing, Chun; Wu, Xiaoqing; Li, Xuebin; Zhu, Wenyue; Qiao, Chunhong; Rao, Ruizhong; Mei, Haipin


    The methods to obtain atmospheric refractive index structure constant (Cn2) by instrument measurement are limited spatially and temporally and they are more difficult and expensive over the ocean. It is useful to forecast Cn2 effectively from Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) outputs. This paper introduces a method that WRF Model is used to forecast the routine meteorological parameters firstly, and then Cn2 is calculated based on these parameters by the Bulk model from the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) over the ocean near-surface. The corresponding Cn2 values measured by the micro-thermometer which is placed on the ship are compared with the ones forecasted by WRF model to determine how this method performs. The result shows that the forecasted Cn2 is consistent with the measured Cn2 in trend and the order of magnitude as a whole, as well as the correlation coefficient is up to 77.57%. This method can forecast some essential aspects of Cn2 and almost always captures the correct magnitude of Cn2, which experiences fluctuations of two orders of magnitude. Thus, it seems to be a feasible and meaningful method that using WRF model to forecast near-surface Cn2 value over the ocean.

  12. Quasi-homogeneous partial coherent source modeling of multimode optical fiber output using the elementary source method (United States)

    Fathy, Alaa; Sabry, Yasser M.; Khalil, Diaa A.


    Multimode fibers (MMF) have many applications in illumination, spectroscopy, sensing and even in optical communication systems. In this work, we present a model for the MMF output field assuming the fiber end as a quasi-homogenous source. The fiber end is modeled by a group of partially coherent elementary sources, spatially shifted and uncorrelated with each other. The elementary source distribution is derived from the far field intensity measurement, while the weighting function of the sources is derived from the fiber end intensity measurement. The model is compared with practical measurements for fibers with different core/cladding diameters at different propagation distances and for different input excitations: laser, white light and LED. The obtained results show normalized root mean square error less than 8% in the intensity profile in most cases, even when the fiber end surface is not perfectly cleaved. Also, the comparison with the Gaussian-Schell model results shows a better agreement with the measurement. In addition, the complex degree of coherence, derived from the model results, is compared with the theoretical predictions of the modified Van Zernike equation showing very good agreement, which strongly supports the assumption that the large core MMF could be considered as a quasi-homogenous source.

  13. Cloud archiving and data mining of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast model output (United States)

    Blaylock, Brian K.; Horel, John D.; Liston, Samuel T.


    Weather-related research often requires synthesizing vast amounts of data that need archival solutions that are both economical and viable during and past the lifetime of the project. Public cloud computing services (e.g., from Amazon, Microsoft, or Google) or private clouds managed by research institutions are providing object data storage systems potentially appropriate for long-term archives of such large geophysical data sets. We illustrate the use of a private cloud object store developed by the Center for High Performance Computing (CHPC) at the University of Utah. Since early 2015, we have been archiving thousands of two-dimensional gridded fields (each one containing over 1.9 million values over the contiguous United States) from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data assimilation and forecast modeling system. The archive is being used for retrospective analyses of meteorological conditions during high-impact weather events, assessing the accuracy of the HRRR forecasts, and providing initial and boundary conditions for research simulations. The archive is accessible interactively and through automated download procedures for researchers at other institutions that can be tailored by the user to extract individual two-dimensional grids from within the highly compressed files. Characteristics of the CHPC object storage system are summarized relative to network file system storage or tape storage solutions. The CHPC storage system is proving to be a scalable, reliable, extensible, affordable, and usable archive solution for our research.

  14. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models (United States)

    Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yao; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, Anna M.; Wang, Weile; Poulter, Benjamin; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Niu, Shuli; Mao, Jiafu; Jain, Atul; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Ito, Akihiko; Wei, Yaxing; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian


    Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  15. Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Sha [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Yu, Bofu [Griffith Univ., Nathan Queensland (Australia); Schwalm, Christopher R. [Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States); Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Ciais, Philippe [Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Zhang, Yao [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); Fisher, Joshua B. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Michalak, Anna M. [Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Wang, Weile [California State Uni., Monterey Bay, Seasid, CA (United States); Poulter, Benjamin [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Huntzinger, Deborah N. [Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States); Niu, Shuli [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jain, Atul [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States); Ricciuto, Daniel M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ito, Akihiko [Tohoku Univ., Sendai (Japan); Wei, Yaxing [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Huang, Yuefei [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Qinghai Univ., Xining (China); Wang, Guangqian [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)


    Here, water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

  16. The stability of input structures in a supply-driven input-output model: A regional analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, T.


    Disruptions in the supply of strategic resources or other crucial factor inputs often present significant problems for planners and policymakers. The problem may be particularly significant at the regional level where higher levels of product specialization mean supply restrictions are more likely to affect leading regional industries. To maintain economic stability in the event of a supply restriction, regional planners may therefore need to evaluate the importance of market versus non-market systems for allocating the remaining supply of the disrupted resource to the region`s leading consuming industries. This paper reports on research that has attempted to show that large short term changes on the supply side do not lead to substantial changes in input coefficients and do not therefore mean the abandonment of the concept of the production function as has been suggested (Oosterhaven, 1988). The supply-driven model was tested for six sectors of the economy of Washington State and found to yield new input coefficients whose values were in most cases close approximations of their original values, even with substantial changes in supply. Average coefficient changes from a 50% output reduction in these six sectors were in the vast majority of cases (297 from a total of 315) less than +2.0% of their original values, excluding coefficient changes for the restricted input. Given these small changes, the most important issue for the validity of the supply-driven input-output model may therefore be the empirical question of the extent to which these coefficient changes are acceptable as being within the limits of approximation.

  17. Selection Input Output by Restriction Using DEA Models Based on a Fuzzy Delphi Approach and Expert Information (United States)

    Arsad, Roslah; Nasir Abdullah, Mohammad; Alias, Suriana; Isa, Zaidi


    Stock evaluation has always been an interesting problem for investors. In this paper, a comparison regarding the efficiency stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia were made through the application of estimation method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). One of the interesting research subjects in DEA is the selection of appropriate input and output parameter. In this study, DEA was used to measure efficiency of stocks of listed companies in Bursa Malaysia in terms of the financial ratio to evaluate performance of stocks. Based on previous studies and Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), the most important financial ratio was selected. The results indicated that return on equity, return on assets, net profit margin, operating profit margin, earnings per share, price to earnings and debt to equity were the most important ratios. Using expert information, all the parameter were clarified as inputs and outputs. The main objectives were to identify most critical financial ratio, clarify them based on expert information and compute the relative efficiency scores of stocks as well as rank them in the construction industry and material completely. The methods of analysis using Alirezaee and Afsharian’s model were employed in this study, where the originality of Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) with the assumption of Constant Return to Scale (CSR) still holds. This method of ranking relative efficiency of decision making units (DMUs) was value-added by the Balance Index. The interested data was made for year 2015 and the population of the research includes accepted companies in stock markets in the construction industry and material (63 companies). According to the ranking, the proposed model can rank completely for 63 companies using selected financial ratio.

  18. Performance of Multi Model Canonical Correlation Analysis (MMCCA) for prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using GCMs output (United States)

    Singh, Ankita; Acharya, Nachiketa; Mohanty, Uma Charan; Mishra, Gopbandhu


    The emerging advances in the field of dynamical prediction of monsoon using state-of-the-art General Circulation Models (GCMs) have led to the development of various multi model ensemble techniques (MMEs). In the present study, the concept of Canonical Correlation Analysis is used for making MME (referred as Multi Model Canonical Correlation Analysis or MMCCA) for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during June-July-August-September (JJAS). This method has been employed on the rainfall outputs of six different GCMs for the period 1982 to 2008. The prediction skill of ISMR by MMCCA is compared with the simple composite method (SCM) (i.e. arithmetic mean of all GCMs), which is taken as a benchmark. After a rigorous analysis through different skill metrics such as correlation coefficient and index of agreement, the superiority of MMCCA over SCM is illustrated. Performance of both models is also evaluated during six typical monsoon years and the results indicate the potential of MMCCA over SCM in capturing the spatial pattern during extreme years.

  19. An extended environmental input-output lifecycle assessment model to study the urban food-energy-water nexus (United States)

    Sherwood, John; Clabeaux, Raeanne; Carbajales-Dale, Michael


    We developed a physically-based environmental account of US food production systems and integrated these data into the environmental-input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) model. The extended model was used to characterize the food, energy, and water (FEW) intensities of every US economic sector. The model was then applied to every Bureau of Economic Analysis metropolitan statistical area (MSA) to determine their FEW usages. The extended EIO-LCA model can determine the water resource use (kGal), energy resource use (TJ), and food resource use in units of mass (kg) or energy content (kcal) of any economic activity within the United States. We analyzed every economic sector to determine its FEW intensities per dollar of economic output. This data was applied to each of the 382 MSAs to determine their total and per dollar of GDP FEW usages by allocating MSA economic production to the corresponding FEW intensities of US economic sectors. Additionally, a longitudinal study was performed for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA, metropolitan statistical area to examine trends from this singular MSA and compare it to the overall results. Results show a strong correlation between GDP and energy use, and between food and water use across MSAs. There is also a correlation between GDP and greenhouse gas emissions. The longitudinal study indicates that these correlations can shift alongside a shifting industrial composition. Comparing MSAs on a per GDP basis reveals that central and southern California tend to be more resource intensive than many other parts of the country, while much of Florida has abnormally low resource requirements. Results of this study enable a more complete understanding of food, energy, and water as key ingredients to a functioning economy. With the addition of the food data to the EIO-LCA framework, researchers will be able to better study the food-energy-water nexus and gain insight into how these three vital resources are interconnected

  20. Preliminary evaluation of techniques for transforming regional climate model output to the potential repository site in support of Yucca Mountain future climate synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Behl, Y.K.


    The report describes a preliminary evaluation of models for transforming regional climate model output from a regional to a local scale for the Yucca Mountain area. Evaluation and analysis of both empirical and numerical modeling are discussed which is aimed at providing site-specific, climate-based information for use by interfacing activities. Two semiempirical approaches are recommended for further analysis

  1. An Extended Model for Tracking Accumulation Pathways of Materials Using Input–Output Tables: Application to Copper Flows in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryosuke Yokoi


    Full Text Available Recycling has become increasingly important as a means to mitigate not only waste issues but also problems related to primary resource use, such as a decrease in resource availability. In order to promote and plan future recycling efficiently, detailed information on the material stock in society is important. For a detailed analysis of material stocks, quantitative information on flows of a material, such as its accumulation pathways, final destinations, and its processing forms, are required. This paper develops a model for tracking accumulation pathways of materials using input–output tables (IOTs. The main characteristics of the proposed model are as follows: (1 accumulations in sectors other than the final demand sectors (i.e., endogenous sectors are explicitly evaluated, (2 accumulations as accompaniments to products, such as containers and packaging, are distinguished from the products, and (3 processing forms of materials are considered. The developed model is applied to analyze copper flows in Japan using the Japanese IOTs for the year 2011. The results show that accumulations of copper in endogenous sectors were not negligibly small (9.24% of the overall flow. Although accumulations of copper as accompaniments were very small, they may be larger for other materials that are largely used as containers or packaging. It was found that the destinations of copper showed different characteristics depending on the processing forms.

  2. Brief communication: On the influence of vertical wind shear on the combined power output of two model wind turbines in yaw

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schottler


    Full Text Available The effect of vertical wind shear on the total power output of two aligned model wind turbines as a function of yaw misalignment of the upstream turbine is studied experimentally. It is shown that asymmetries of the power output of the downstream turbine and the combined power of both with respect to the upstream turbine's yaw misalignment angle can be linked to the vertical wind shear of the inflow.

  3. Improvement of a mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. Utilization of output from synoptic numerical prediction model for initial and boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi


    This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)

  4. Percentile-Based ETCCDI Temperature Extremes Indices for CMIP5 Model Output: New Results through Semiparametric Quantile Regression Approach (United States)

    Li, L.; Yang, C.


    Climate extremes often manifest as rare events in terms of surface air temperature and precipitation with an annual reoccurrence period. In order to represent the manifold characteristics of climate extremes for monitoring and analysis, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) had worked out a set of 27 core indices based on daily temperature and precipitation data, describing extreme weather and climate events on an annual basis. The CLIMDEX project ( had produced public domain datasets of such indices for data from a variety of sources, including output from global climate models (GCM) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the 27 ETCCDI indices, there are six percentile-based temperature extremes indices that may fall into two groups: exceedance rates (ER) (TN10p, TN90p, TX10p and TX90p) and durations (CSDI and WSDI). Percentiles must be estimated prior to the calculation of the indices, and could more or less be biased by the adopted algorithm. Such biases will in turn be propagated to the final results of indices. The CLIMDEX used an empirical quantile estimator combined with a bootstrap resampling procedure to reduce the inhomogeneity in the annual series of the ER indices. However, there are still some problems remained in the CLIMDEX datasets, namely the overestimated climate variability due to unaccounted autocorrelation in the daily temperature data, seasonally varying biases and inconsistency between algorithms applied to the ER indices and to the duration indices. We now present new results of the six indices through a semiparametric quantile regression approach for the CMIP5 model output. By using the base-period data as a whole and taking seasonality and autocorrelation into account, this approach successfully addressed the aforementioned issues and came out with consistent results. The new datasets cover the historical and three projected (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP

  5. An Input and Output Analysis of the Quaternity-Dominating Energy Engineering Model from China’s Countryside (United States)

    Xie, Xing Long; Xian Xue, Wei


    The aim of this study is to qualitatively and quantitatively explore an energy engineering model termed quaternity-dominating pattern emerging in North China’s countryside. This study finds methane produced in this model serves household activities such as cooking, inducing reduction of coal or biomass spending, which otherwise would provoke air pollution, water loss and land erosion, and ultimately leading to ecological environment betterment. Additionally, this project generates byproducts, biogas liquids and residuals, which can, as a category of fertilizer, can promote straightening of fertility preservation capacity and improvement in the chemical and physical quality of land as well as increasing crop output and quality. This study also finds this engineering could encourage social stability via efficiently allocating bucolic surplus labor during winter and successful running this engineering project would trigger an increase of scientific and technological qualifications for rural citizens. Moreover, cost-profit analysis indicates this pattern can allow one rural home to obtain access to a hygienic energy resource of biogas in the yearly volume of 375m3, generate annual net earnings of US3458.82 and make investment return in about 2.73 years. Especially for poverty-stricken areas, this energy engineering project enjoys high values and great significance, which can lift these impoverished areas from poverty both in economics and energy. The paper concludes with pointing out practical proposals on launching and operating this energy engineering project.

  6. China’s Input-Output Efficiency of Water-Energy-Food Nexus Based on the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guijun Li


    Full Text Available An explanation and quantification of the water-energy-food nexus (WEF-Nexus is important to advance our understanding of regional resource management, which is presently in its infant stage. Evaluation of the current states, interconnections, and trends of WEF-Nexus, in cities, has largely been ignored due to quantification hurdles and the lack of available data. Based on the interaction of WEF-Nexus with population system, economic system, and environmental system, this paper builds the input output index system at the city level. Using the input output index system, we evaluate the WEF-Nexus input-output efficiency with the data envelopment analysis (DEA model. We regard the decision making unit as a “black box”, to explore the states and trends of WEF-Nexus. In the empirical study based on data from China, we compare the input-output efficiency of WEF-Nexus in 30 provinces across China, from 2005 to 2014, to better understand their statues and trends of the input-output efficiency holistically. Together with the Malmquist index, factors leading to regional differences in the fluctuation of input-output efficiency are explored. Finally, we conclude that the DEA model indicates the regional consumption of WEF resources in the horizontal dimension and the trends in vertical dimension, together with the Malmquist index, to explain the variations for proposing specific implications.

  7. A model for external drift kriging with uncertain covariates applied to air quality measurements and dispersion model output

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kassteele, van de J.; Stein, A.


    We present a method that combines uncertain air quality measurements with uncertain secondary information from an atmospheric dispersion model. The method combines external drift kriging and a measurement error (ME) model, and uses Bayesian techniques for inference. An illustration with simulated

  8. Predicting favorable conditions for early leaf spot of peanut using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. (United States)

    Olatinwo, Rabiu O; Prabha, Thara V; Paz, Joel O; Hoogenboom, Gerrit


    Early leaf spot of peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.), a disease caused by Cercospora arachidicola S. Hori, is responsible for an annual crop loss of several million dollars in the southeastern United States alone. The development of early leaf spot on peanut and subsequent spread of the spores of C. arachidicola relies on favorable weather conditions. Accurate spatio-temporal weather information is crucial for monitoring the progression of favorable conditions and determining the potential threat of the disease. Therefore, the development of a prediction model for mitigating the risk of early leaf spot in peanut production is important. The specific objective of this study was to demonstrate the application of the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for management of early leaf spot in peanut. We coupled high-resolution weather output of the WRF, i.e. relative humidity and temperature, with the Oklahoma peanut leaf spot advisory model in predicting favorable conditions for early leaf spot infection over Georgia in 2007. Results showed a more favorable infection condition in the southeastern coastline of Georgia where the infection threshold were met sooner compared to the southwestern and central part of Georgia where the disease risk was lower. A newly introduced infection threat index indicates that the leaf spot threat threshold was met sooner at Alma, GA, compared to Tifton and Cordele, GA. The short-term prediction of weather parameters and their use in the management of peanut diseases is a viable and promising technique, which could help growers make accurate management decisions, and lower disease impact through optimum timing of fungicide applications.

  9. Prediction of Lumen Output and Chromaticity Shift in LEDs Using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter Based Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Davis, J Lynn


    Abstract— Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have

  10. Interpretation of Landscape Scale SWAT Model Outputs in the Western Lake Erie Basin: Potential Implications for Conservation Decision-Making (United States)

    Johnson, M. V. V.; Behrman, K. D.; Atwood, J. D.; White, M. J.; Norfleet, M. L.


    takes time for monitoring efforts to measure meaningful changes over time. Careful interpretation of model outputs is imperative for appropriate application of current scientific knowledge to inform decision making, especially when models are used to set spatial and temporal goals around conservation practice adoption and water quality.

  11. Constraining mass-diameter relations from hydrometeor images and cloud radar reflectivities in tropical continental and oceanic convective anvils (United States)

    Fontaine, E.; Schwarzenboeck, A.; Delanoë, J.; Wobrock, W.; Leroy, D.; Dupuy, R.; Gourbeyre, C.; Protat, A.


    In this study the density of ice hydrometeors in tropical clouds is derived from a combined analysis of particle images from 2-D-array probes and associated reflectivities measured with a Doppler cloud radar on the same research aircraft. Usually, the mass-diameter m(D) relationship is formulated as a power law with two unknown coefficients (pre-factor, exponent) that need to be constrained from complementary information on hydrometeors, where absolute ice density measurement methods do not apply. Here, at first an extended theoretical study of numerous hydrometeor shapes simulated in 3-D and arbitrarily projected on a 2-D plan allowed to constrain the exponent βof the m(D) relationship from the exponent σ of the surface-diameterS(D)relationship, which is likewise written as a power law. Since S(D) always can be determined for real data from 2-D optical array probes or other particle imagers, the evolution of the m(D) exponent can be calculated. After that, the pre-factor α of m(D) is constrained from theoretical simulations of the radar reflectivities matching the measured reflectivities along the aircraft trajectory. The study was performed as part of the Megha-Tropiques satellite project, where two types of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) were investigated: (i) above the African continent and (ii) above the Indian Ocean. For the two data sets, two parameterizations are derived to calculate the vertical variability of m(D) coefficients α and β as a function of the temperature. Originally calculated (with T-matrix) and also subsequently parameterized m(D) relationships from this study are compared to other methods (from literature) of calculating m(D) in tropical convection. The significant benefit of using variable m(D) relations instead of a single m(D) relationship is demonstrated from the impact of all these m(D) relations on Z-CWC (Condensed Water Content) and Z-CWC-T-fitted parameterizations.

  12. The impact of domestic trade on China's regional energy uses: A multi-regional input–output modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Bo; Chen, Z.M.; Xia, X.H.; Xu, X.Y.; Chen, Y.B.


    To systematically reveal how domestic trade impacts on China's regional energy uses, an interprovincial input–output modeling is carried out to address demand-derived energy requirements for the regional economies in 2007 based on the recently available data. Both the energy uses embodied in final demand and interregional trade are investigated from the regional and sectoral insights. Significant net transfers of embodied energy flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest energy producer and interregional embodied energy deficit receiver, in contrast to Guangdong as the largest energy user and surplus receiver. By considering the impacts of interregional trade, the energy uses of most eastern regions increase remarkably. For instance, Shanghai, Hainan, Zhejiang, Beijing, Jiangsu and Guangdong have their embodied energy requirements 87.49, 19.97, 13.64, 12.60, 6.46 and 6.38 times of their direct energy inputs, respectively. In contrast, the embodied energy uses of some central and western regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and Guizhou decrease largely. The results help understand the hidden network linkages of interregional embodied energy flows and provide critical insight to amend China's current end-reduction-oriented energy policies by addressing the problem of regional responsibility transfer. - Highlights: • Demand-derived energy requirements for China's regional economies are addressed. • Significant interregional transfers of embodied energy flows are identified. • Energy surpluses are obtained by 19 regions and deficits by the other 11 regions. • The eastern regions should take more responsibility for reducing China's energy uses

  13. How the removal of energy subsidy affects general price in China: A study based on input–output model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Zhujun; Tan, Jijun


    In China, most energy prices are controlled by the government and are under-priced, which means energy subsidies existing. Reforming energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy price, energy use and CO 2 emission. This paper applies a price-gap approach to estimate China's fossil-fuel related subsidies with the consideration of the external cost. Results indicate that the magnitude of subsidies amounted to CNY 1214.24 billion in 2008, equivalent to 4.04% of GDP of that year. Subsidies for oil products are the largest, followed by subsidies for the coal and electricity. Furthermore, an input–output model is used to analyze the impacts of energy subsidies reform on different industries and general price indexes. The findings show that removal of energy subsidies will have significant impact on energy-intensive industry, and consequently push up the general price level, yet with a small variation. Removing oil products subsidies will have the largest impact, followed by electricity, coal and natural gas. However, no matter which energy price increases, PPI is always the most affected, then GDP deflator, with CPI being the least. Corresponding compensation measures should be accordingly designed to offset the negative impact caused by energy subsidies reform. - Highlights: • China's fossil-fuel subsidies were CNY 1214.24 billion in 2008 including external cost. • Removing energy subsidies will have the largest impact on energy-intensity industry. • Removal of oil products subsidies will have the largest impact. • The effect of removing energy subsidies on general price is: PPI>GDP deflator>CPI

  14. Waste Isolation Pilot Plant environmental impact report: an outline of the input--output model and the impact projections methodology. Technical document, socioeconomic portion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    A static model in the form of a regional input-output model was constructed for Eddy and Lea Counties, New Mexico. Besides the WIPP project, the model was also used for several other projects to determine the economic impact of proposed new facilities and developments. Both private and public sectors are covered. Sub-sectors for WIPP below-ground construction, above-ground construction, and operation and transport are included

  15. Global source identification of Arctic air pollution using statistical analysis of particle dispersion model output and measurement data (United States)

    Hirdman, D. A.; Burkhart, J. F.; Eckhardt, S.; Sodemann, H.; Stohl, A.


    Arctic air pollution has received renewed interest recently because of its contribution to climate change in the Arctic. Nevertheless, its sources are still not known with sufficient accuracy. Most of our understanding of Arctic air pollution sources is based on model simulations, analysis of air pollution episodes or, at best, statistical analysis of air mass back-trajectories. Here, we present a new approach, namely combining the output of a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, FLEXPART, with measurement data from Arctic air pollution monitoring sites (Alert, Barrow, Summit, Zeppelin). This approach is similar to existing statistical methods for analyzing back-trajectories in conjunction with air pollution monitoring data. However, it has the advantage that the underlying model calculations also take into account turbulence and convection in the atmosphere, which are ignored by ordinary trajectory calculations. FLEXPART is run 20 days backward in time from each of the stations and every three hours, for several years. With every calculation, a so-called potential emission sensitivity (PES) field is obtained, which identifies where the measured air mass has come into contact with the Earth's surface. It quantitatively measures the sensitivity of the signal obtained at the station, to emissions occurring at or near the surface. By combining these PES fields with measured concentrations of several trace species e.g., carbon monoxide, sulphate, black carbon, and ozone. By performing a statistical analysis, we identify where the measured species most likely originate. Statistical analyses are performed both for average concentrations as well as the 10th and 90th percentiles of the measured frequency distribution. We implement a bootstrap resampling procedure to verify the statistical significance of the patterns observed in our retrieved PES maps. Some of our findings are: carbon monoxide and sulphate measured at Zeppelin originate from the Eurasian continent

  16. A case study of microphysical structures and hydrometeor phase in convection using radar Doppler spectra at Darwin, Australia (United States)

    Riihimaki, L. D.; Comstock, J. M.; Luke, E.; Thorsen, T. J.; Fu, Q.


    To understand the microphysical processes that impact diabatic heating and cloud lifetimes in convection, we need to characterize the spatial distribution of supercooled liquid water. To address this observational challenge, ground-based vertically pointing active sensors at the Darwin Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site are used to classify cloud phase within a deep convective cloud. The cloud cannot be fully observed by a lidar due to signal attenuation. Therefore, we developed an objective method for identifying hydrometeor classes, including mixed-phase conditions, using k-means clustering on parameters that describe the shape of the Doppler spectra from vertically pointing Ka-band cloud radar. This approach shows that multiple, overlapping mixed-phase layers exist within the cloud, rather than a single region of supercooled liquid. Diffusional growth calculations show that the conditions for the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process exist within one of these mixed-phase microstructures.

  17. A case study of microphysical structures and hydrometeor phase in convection using radar Doppler spectra at Darwin, Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riihimaki, Laura D.; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Luke, Edward; Thorsen, Tyler J.; Fu, Qiang


    To understand the microphysical processes that impact diabatic heating and cloud lifetimes in convection, we need to characterize the spatial distribution of supercooled liquid water. To address this observational challenge, vertically pointing active sensors at the Darwin Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site are used to classify cloud phase within a deep convective cloud in a shallow to deep convection transitional case. The cloud cannot be fully observed by a lidar due to signal attenuation. Thus we develop an objective method for identifying hydrometeor classes, including mixed-phase conditions, using k-means clustering on parameters that describe the shape of the Doppler spectra from vertically pointing Ka band cloud radar. This approach shows that multiple, overlapping mixed-phase layers exist within the cloud, rather than a single region of supercooled liquid, indicating complexity to how ice growth and diabatic heating occurs in the vertical structure of the cloud.

  18. A state space averaged duo-mode SPICE model of a four-output current-programmed push-pull converter with Magamp post regulators (United States)

    Chen, Jesse E.; Rodriguez, Francis D.; Schaffner, Ronald J.

    A nonlinear duomode state space-averaged SPICE model of a current-programmed push-pull converter with four outputs and two magamp postregulators is described. Convergence 'tricks' are discussed and simulations are compared to lab measurements. SPICE can be used to estimate the large signal behavior of multioutput push-pull converters under current-programmed control.

  19. Exploring the Role Played by Error Correction and Models on Children's Reported Noticing and Output Production in a L2 Writing Task (United States)

    Coyle, Yvette; Roca de Larios, Julio


    This article reports an empirical study in which we explored the role played by two forms of feedback--error correction and model texts--on child English as a foreign language learners' reported noticing and written output. The study was carried out with 11- and 12-year-old children placed in proficiency-matched pairs who engaged in a…

  20. High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry. (United States)

    Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.


    The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal

  1. LISA package user guide. Part III: SPOP (Statistical POst Processor). Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for model output. Program description and user guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saltelli, A.; Homma, T.


    This manual is subdivided into three parts. In the third part, the SPOP (Statistical POst Processor) code is described as a tool to perform Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses on the output of a User implemented model. It has been developed at the joint Research Centre of Ispra as part of the LISA package. SPOP performs Sensitivity Analysis (SA) and Uncertainty Analysis (UA) on a sample output from a Monte Carlo simulation. The sample is generated by the User and contains values of the output variable (in the form of a time series) and values of the input variables for a set of different simulations (runs), which are realised by varying the model input parameters. The User may generate the Monte Carlo sample with the PREP pre-processor, another module of the LISA package. The SPOP code is completely written in FORTRAN 77 using structured programming. Among the tasks performed by the code are the computation of Tchebycheff and Kolmogorov confidence bounds on the output variable (UA), and the use of effective non-parametric statistics to rank the influence of model input parameters (SA). The statistics employed are described in the present manual. 19 refs., 16 figs., 2 tabs. Note: This PART III is a revised version of the previous EUR report N.12700EN (1990)

  2. A conceptual model for analysing input-output coefficients in arable farming systems: from diagnosis towards design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koeijer, de T.J.; Wossink, G.A.A.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Struik, P.C.; Renkema, J.


    Environmental legislation is forcing a rethink about desirable crop production systems. The development of new production systems that meet economic and environmental objectives demands knowledge about which input–output combinations are feasible and optimal in practice. A review of concepts in

  3. Multi-regional input–output model and ecological network analysis for regional embodied energy accounting in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yan; Zheng, Hongmei; Yang, Zhifeng; Su, Meirong; Liu, Gengyuan; Li, Yanxian


    Chinese regions frequently exchange materials, but regional differences in economic development create unbalanced flows of these resources. In this study, we examined energy by assessing embodied energy consumption to describe the energy-flow structure in China's seven regions. Based on multi-regional monetary input–output tables and energy statistical yearbooks for Chinese provinces in 2002 and 2007, we accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption, respectively, and the integral input and output of the provinces. Most integral inputs of energy flowed from north to south or from east to west, whereas integral output flows were mainly from northeast to southwest. This differed from the direct flows, which were predominantly from north to south and west to east. This demonstrates the importance of calculating both direct and indirect energy flows. Analysis of the distance and direction traveled by the energy consumption centers of gravity showed that the centers for embodied energy consumption and inputs moved southeast because of the movements of the centers of the Eastern region. However, the center for outputs moved northeast because the movement of the Central region. These analyses provide a basis for identifying how regional economic development policies influence the embodied energy consumption and its flows among regions. - Highlights: • We integrated multi-regional input–output analysis with ecological network analysis. • We accounted for both direct and indirect energy consumption. • The centers of gravity for embodied energy flows moved southeast from 2002 to 2007. • The results support planning of energy consumption and energy flows among regions.

  4. The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; hide


    Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to

  5. The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Silva


    Full Text Available Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs, the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry–climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year−1, likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000 deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year−1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios

  6. Forecasting the weather at the TAL sites during STS-40 using the grid point forecast output from the NMC MRF model (United States)

    Hafele, Gene M.


    The NOAA's Spaceflight Meteorology Group has used the point forecast output from the Global Profile Archive and Global Profile Archive since 1990, and found this product to allow forecasters to examine the MRF model in a vertical profile, and thereby determine how different model parameters behave over time. Attention is presently given to the use of these resources in the illustrative case of the STS-40 mission, over northwestern Spain.

  7. A model-based analysis of a simplified beam-specific dose output in proton therapy with a single-ring wobbling system. (United States)

    Kase, Yuki; Yamashita, Haruo; Numano, Masumi; Sakama, Makoto; Mizota, Manabu; Maeda, Yoshikazu; Tameshige, Yuji; Murayama, Shigeyuki


    In radiation therapy, it is necessary to preset a monitor unit in an irradiation control system to deliver a prescribed absolute dose to a reference point in the planning target volume. The purpose of this study was to develop a model-based monitor unit calculation method for proton-beam therapy with a single-ring wobbling system. The absorbed dose at a calibration point per monitor unit had been measured for each beam-specific measurement condition without a patient-specific collimator or range compensator before proton therapeutic irradiation at Shizuoka Cancer Center. In this paper, we propose a simplified dose output model to obtain the output ratio between a beam-specific dose and a reference field dose, from which a monitor unit for the proton treatment could be derived without beam-specific measurements. The model parameters were determined to fit some typical data measured in a proton treatment room, called a Gantry 1 course. Then, the model calculation was compared with 5456 dose output ratios that had been measured for 150-, 190- and 220 MeV therapeutic proton beams in two treatment rooms over the past decade. The mean value and standard deviation of the difference between the measurement and the model calculation were respectively 0.00% and 0.27% for the Gantry 1 course, and -0.25% and 0.35% for the Gantry 2 course. The model calculation was in good agreement with the measured beam-specific doses, within 1%, except for conditions less frequently used for treatment. The small variation for the various beam conditions shows the high long-term reproducibility of the measurement and high degree of compatibility of the two treatment rooms. Therefore, the model was expected to assure the setting value of the dose monitor for treatment, to save the effort required for beam-specific measurement, and to predict the dose output for new beam conditions in the future.

  8. Optimization of the output of a solar cell per theoretical and experimental study of the models to one and two exponential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benyoucef B.


    Full Text Available The production of electricity based on the conversion of the sunlight by photovoltaic cells containing crystalline silicon is the way most used on the technological and industrial level Consequently, the development of the terrestrial applications for the energy production requires high-output cells and low cost.The aim of our work is to present a comparative study between both theoretical and experimental models of a solar cell based silicon type PHYWE (connecting four cells in series of 80 mm diameter to improve photovoltaic performance.This study led to the determination of the parameters of the cell starting from the current-voltage characteristic, the influence of luminous flow on this characteristic as well as the effect of the incidental photons on the solar cell. We justify the interest to use the model with two exponential for the optimization of the output by underlining the insufficiency of the model to one exponential.

  9. Analysis of urban metabolic processes based on input-output method: model development and a case study for Beijing (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Liu, Hong; Chen, Bin; Zheng, Hongmei; Li, Yating


    Discovering ways in which to increase the sustainability of the metabolic processes involved in urbanization has become an urgent task for urban design and management in China. As cities are analogous to living organisms, the disorders of their metabolic processes can be regarded as the cause of "urban disease". Therefore, identification of these causes through metabolic process analysis and ecological element distribution through the urban ecosystem's compartments will be helpful. By using Beijing as an example, we have compiled monetary input-output tables from 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007 and calculated the intensities of the embodied ecological elements to compile the corresponding implied physical input-output tables. We then divided Beijing's economy into 32 compartments and analyzed the direct and indirect ecological intensities embodied in the flows of ecological elements through urban metabolic processes. Based on the combination of input-output tables and ecological network analysis, the description of multiple ecological elements transferred among Beijing's industrial compartments and their distribution has been refined. This hybrid approach can provide a more scientific basis for management of urban resource flows. In addition, the data obtained from distribution characteristics of ecological elements may provide a basic data platform for exploring the metabolic mechanism of Beijing.

  10. Finite Control Set–Model Predictive Control with Modulation to Mitigate Harmonic Component in Output Current for a Grid-Connected Inverter under Distorted Grid Conditions


    Tien Hai Nguyen; Kyeong-Hwa Kim


    This paper presents an improved current control strategy for a three-phase grid-connected inverter under distorted grid conditions. In terms of performance, it is important for a grid-connected inverter to maintain the harmonic contents of inverter output currents below the specified limit even when the grid is subject to harmonic distortion. To address this problem, this paper proposes a modulated finite control set–model predictive control (FCS-MPC) scheme, which effectively mitigates the h...

  11. Extraction of Vertical Profiles of Atmospheric Variables from Gridded Binary, Edition 2 (GRIB2) Model Output Files (United States)


    3 contains values of the listed variables for the height layers of a METCM for the sounding of Table 2 (ETGB). Wind direction is in tens of mils and...6400 mils = 360° = 640 tens of mils. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 6 Table 3 Output with the same height structure as... tens of mils) Wind speed (kt) Virt temp (K*10) Pressure (mb) Temperature (K*10) 0 0 297 17 2920 991 2902 1 200 305 23 2915 980 2898 2 500

  12. A series approximation model for optical light transport and output intensity field distribution in large aspect ratio cylindrical scintillation crystals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tobias, Benjamin John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    A series approximation has been derived for the transport of optical photons within a cylindrically symmetric light pipe and applied to the task of evaluating both the origin and angular distribution of light reaching the output plane. This analytic expression finds particular utility in first-pass photonic design applications since it may be evaluated at a very modest computational cost and is readily parameterized for relevant design constraints. It has been applied toward quantitative exploration of various scintillation crystal preparations and their impact on both quantum efficiency and noise, reproducing sensible dependencies and providing physical justification for certain gamma ray camera design choices.

  13. Robust model reference adaptive output feedback tracking for uncertain linear systems with actuator fault based on reinforced dead-zone modification. (United States)

    Bagherpoor, H M; Salmasi, Farzad R


    In this paper, robust model reference adaptive tracking controllers are considered for Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) and Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) linear systems containing modeling uncertainties, unknown additive disturbances and actuator fault. Two new lemmas are proposed for both SISO and MIMO, under which dead-zone modification rule is improved such that the tracking error for any reference signal tends to zero in such systems. In the conventional approach, adaption of the controller parameters is ceased inside the dead-zone region which results tracking error, while preserving the system stability. In the proposed scheme, control signal is reinforced with an additive term based on tracking error inside the dead-zone which results in full reference tracking. In addition, no Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) unit is needed in the proposed approach. Closed loop system stability and zero tracking error are proved by considering a suitable Lyapunov functions candidate. It is shown that the proposed control approach can assure that all the signals of the close loop system are bounded in faulty conditions. Finally, validity and performance of the new schemes have been illustrated through numerical simulations of SISO and MIMO systems in the presence of actuator faults, modeling uncertainty and output disturbance. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The diurnal cycle of clouds and precipitation at the ARM SGP site: Cloud radar observations and simulations from the multiscale modeling framework (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Marchand, Roger; Fu, Qiang


    Millimeter Wavelength Cloud Radar (MMCR) data from December 1996 to December 2010, collected at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, are used to examine the diurnal cycle of hydrometeor occurrence. These data are categorized into clouds (-40 dBZe ≤ reflectivity < -10 dBZe), drizzle and light precipitation (-10 dBZe ≤ reflectivity < 10 dBZe), and heavy precipitation (reflectivity ≥ 10 dBZe). The same criteria are implemented for the observation-equivalent reflectivity calculated by feeding outputs from a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) climate model into a radar simulator. The MMF model consists of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model with conventional cloud parameterizations replaced by a cloud-resolving model. We find that a radar simulator combined with the simple reflectivity categories can be an effective approach for evaluating diurnal variations in model hydrometeor occurrence. It is shown that the MMF only marginally captures observed increases in the occurrence of boundary layer clouds after sunrise in spring and autumn and does not capture diurnal changes in boundary layer clouds during the summer. Above the boundary layer, the MMF captures reasonably well diurnal variations in the vertical structure of clouds and light and heavy precipitation in the summer but not in the spring.

  15. The use of output-dependent data scaling with artificial neural networks and multilinear regression for modeling of ciprofloxacin removal from aqueous solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulaş Yurtsever


    Full Text Available In this study, an experimental system entailing ciprofloxacin hydrochloride (CIP removal from aqueous solution is modeled by using artificial neural networks (ANNs. For modeling of CIP removal from aqueous solution using bentonite and activated carbon, we utilized the combination of output-dependent data scaling (ODDS with ANN, and the combination of ODDS with multivariable linear regression model (MVLR. The ANN model normalized via ODDS performs better in comparison with the ANN model scaled via standard normalization. Four distinct hybrid models, ANN with standard normalization, ANN with ODDS, MVLR with standard normalization, and MVLR with ODDS, were also applied. We observed that ANN and MVLR estimations’ consistency, accuracy ratios and model performances increase as a result of pre-processing with ODDS.

  16. Unit 16 - Output


    Unit 16, CC in GIS; Star, Jeffrey L.


    This unit discusses issues related to GIS output, including the different types of output possible and the hardware for producing each. It describes text, graphic and digital data that can be generated by a GIS as well as line printers, dot matrix printers/plotters, pen plotters, optical scanners and cathode ray tubes (CRTs) as technologies for generating the output.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajjad Barkordari


    Full Text Available Iran is an oil exporting country in Middle East. The high share of the oil revenues in Iran is a serious economic problem. Due to the high dependency of Iran’s economy on oil revenues, oil price shocks have a determinant impact on macroeconomic variables. In this paper, we analyze the dynamic effects of oil price shocks and the aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Iran. According to macroeconomic theory and aggregate demand and supply model in equilibrium, a structural vector autoregressive (VAR model is applied to identify different structural shocks and further assess the relative contributions of different shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations, using a decomposition approach. The results show that oil price shocks have significant and positive effects on both output and inflation. Aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks are the main causes of fluctuation in output and inflation, and moreover, the effect of aggregate supply shocks on output is permanent in the Iranian economy. On the base of this study results, we suggest the Iranian government should accelerate the economic reforms such as the finance system of state owned enterprises, the tax system, the cash subsidy distribution system, the allocation system of the government budget in national and provincial level, the financial and banking system, and so on. The suggested reforms aim to decrease in the share of oil revenues in the economy and protect the Iranian economy in the face of any exogenous and endogenous shocks.

  18. Input-output maps are strongly biased towards simple outputs. (United States)

    Dingle, Kamaludin; Camargo, Chico Q; Louis, Ard A


    Many systems in nature can be described using discrete input-output maps. Without knowing details about a map, there may seem to be no a priori reason to expect that a randomly chosen input would be more likely to generate one output over another. Here, by extending fundamental results from algorithmic information theory, we show instead that for many real-world maps, the a priori probability P(x) that randomly sampled inputs generate a particular output x decays exponentially with the approximate Kolmogorov complexity [Formula: see text] of that output. These input-output maps are biased towards simplicity. We derive an upper bound P(x) ≲ [Formula: see text], which is tight for most inputs. The constants a and b, as well as many properties of  P(x), can be predicted with minimal knowledge of the map. We explore this strong bias towards simple outputs in systems ranging from the folding of RNA secondary structures to systems of coupled ordinary differential equations to a stochastic financial trading model.

  19. Classification and modelling of functional outputs of computation codes. Application to accidental thermal-hydraulic calculations in pressurized water reactor (PWR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auder, Benjamin


    This research thesis has been made within the frame of a project on nuclear reactor vessel life. It deals with the use of numerical codes aimed at estimating probability densities for every input parameter in order to calculate probability margins at the output level. More precisely, it deals with codes with one-dimensional functional responses. The author studies the numerical simulation of a pressurized thermal shock on a nuclear reactor vessel, i.e. one of the possible accident types. The study of the vessel integrity relies on a thermal-hydraulic analysis and on a mechanical analysis. Algorithms are developed and proposed for each of them. Input-output data are classified using a clustering technique and a graph-based representation. A method for output dimension reduction is proposed, and a regression is applied between inputs and reduced representations. Applications are discussed in the case of modelling and sensitivity analysis for the CATHARE code (a code used at the CEA for the thermal-hydraulic analysis)

  20. Comparison of Two Output-Coding Strategies for Multi-Class Tumor Classification Using Gene Expression Data and Latent Variable Model as Binary Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandeep J. Joseph


    Full Text Available Multi-class cancer classification based on microarray data is described. A generalized output-coding scheme based on One Versus One (OVO combined with Latent Variable Model (LVM is used. Results from the proposed One Versus One (OVO output- coding strategy is compared with the results obtained from the generalized One Versus All (OVA method and their efficiencies of using them for multi-class tumor classification have been studied. This comparative study was done using two microarray gene expression data: Global Cancer Map (GCM dataset and brain cancer (BC dataset. Primary feature selection was based on fold change and penalized t-statistics. Evaluation was conducted with varying feature numbers. The OVO coding strategy worked quite well with the BC data, while both OVO and OVA results seemed to be similar for the GCM data. The selection of output coding methods for combining binary classifiers for multi-class tumor classification depends on the number of tumor types considered, the discrepancies between the tumor samples used for training as well as the heterogeneity of expression within the cancer subtypes used as training data.

  1. The impact of differences in large-scale circulation output from climate models on the regional modeling of ozone and PM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. M. Manders


    Full Text Available Climate change may have an impact on air quality (ozone, particulate matter due to the strong dependency of air quality on meteorology. The effect is often studied using a global climate model (GCM to produce meteorological fields that are subsequently used by chemical transport models. However, climate models themselves are subject to large uncertainties and fail to reproduce the present-day climate adequately. The present study illustrates the impact of these uncertainties on air quality. To this end, output from the SRES-A1B constraint transient runs with two GCMs, i.e. ECHAM5 and MIROC-hires, has been dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model RACMO2 and used to force a constant emission run with the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS in a one-way coupled run covering the period 1970–2060.

    Results from the two climate simulations have been compared with a RACMO2-LOTOS-EUROS (RLE simulation forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the period 1989–2009. Both RLE_ECHAM and RLE_MIROC showed considerable deviations from RLE_ERA for daily maximum temperature, precipitation and wind speed. Moreover, sign and magnitude of these deviations depended on the region. The differences in average present-day concentrations between the simulations were equal to (RLE_MIROC or even larger than (RLE_ECHAM the differences in concentrations between present-day and future climate (2041–2060. The climate simulations agreed on a future increase in average summer ozone daily maximum concentrations of 5–10 μg m−3 in parts of Southern Europe and a smaller increase in Western and Central Europe. Annual average PM10 concentrations increased 0.5–1.0 μg m−3 in North-West Europe and the Po Valley, but these numbers are rather uncertain: overall, changes for PM10 were small, both positive and negative changes were found, and for many locations the two climate runs did not agree on the sign of

  2. The commissioning of the advanced radiographic capability laser system: experimental and modeling results at the main laser output (United States)

    Di Nicola, J. M.; Yang, S. T.; Boley, C. D.; Crane, J. K.; Heebner, J. E.; Spinka, T. M.; Arnold, P.; Barty, C. P. J.; Bowers, M. W.; Budge, T. S.; Christensen, K.; Dawson, J. W.; Erbert, G.; Feigenbaum, E.; Guss, G.; Haefner, C.; Hermann, M. R.; Homoelle, D.; Jarboe, J. A.; Lawson, J. K.; Lowe-Webb, R.; McCandless, K.; McHale, B.; Pelz, L. J.; Pham, P. P.; Prantil, M. A.; Rehak, M. L.; Rever, M. A.; Rushford, M. C.; Sacks, R. A.; Shaw, M.; Smauley, D.; Smith, L. K.; Speck, R.; Tietbohl, G.; Wegner, P. J.; Widmayer, C.


    The National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is the first of a kind megajoule-class laser with 192 beams capable of delivering over 1.8 MJ and 500TW of 351nm light [1], [2]. It has been commissioned and operated since 2009 to support a wide range of missions including the study of inertial confinement fusion, high energy density physics, material science, and laboratory astrophysics. In order to advance our understanding, and enable short-pulse multi-frame radiographic experiments of dense cores of cold material, the generation of very hard x-rays above 50 keV is necessary. X-rays with such characteristics can be efficiently generated with high intensity laser pulses above 1017 W/cm² [3]. The Advanced Radiographic Capability (ARC) [4] which is currently being commissioned on the NIF will provide eight, 1 ps to 50 ps, adjustable pulses with up to 1.7 kJ each to create x-ray point sources enabling dynamic, multi-frame x-ray backlighting. This paper will provide an overview of the ARC system and report on the laser performance tests conducted with a stretched-pulse up to the main laser output and their comparison with the results of our laser propagation codes.

  3. Input-output supervisor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dupuy, R.


    The input-output supervisor is the program which monitors the flow of informations between core storage and peripheral equipments of a computer. This work is composed of three parts: 1 - Study of a generalized input-output supervisor. With sample modifications it looks like most of input-output supervisors which are running now on computers. 2 - Application of this theory on a magnetic drum. 3 - Hardware requirement for time-sharing. (author) [fr

  4. Romantic passion as output from a self-regulating, intimacy-seeking system: a model for understanding passionate love. (United States)

    Troy, Adam B


    This article presents a model of why individuals experience the feeling of passionate love in intimate relationships. Previous models have been limited because they do not describe the purpose and function of passionate love, do not incorporate basic emotion and personality theory, or are not applicable to help couples in distress. The present model reinterprets and integrates previous findings. New predictions are made about the functioning of passionate love in relationships by hypothesizing a self-regulating, intimacy-seeking system that produces passionate love as its outcome. A self-regulation model proposed by Carver and Scheier in 1998 is the template on which this model is based.

  5. Developing high-resolution urban scale heavy-duty truck emission inventory using the data-driven truck activity model output (United States)

    Perugu, Harikishan; Wei, Heng; Yao, Zhuo


    Air quality modelers often rely on regional travel demand models to estimate the vehicle activity data for emission models, however, most of the current travel demand models can only output reliable person travel activity rather than goods/service specific travel activity. This paper presents the successful application of data-driven, Spatial Regression and output optimization Truck model (SPARE-Truck) to develop truck-related activity inputs for the mobile emission model, and eventually to produce truck specific gridded emissions. To validate the proposed methodology, the Cincinnati metropolitan area in United States was selected as a case study site. From the results, it is found that the truck miles traveled predicted using traditional methods tend to underestimate - overall 32% less than proposed model- truck miles traveled. The coefficient of determination values for different truck types range between 0.82 and 0.97, except the motor homes which showed least model fit with 0.51. Consequently, the emission inventories calculated from the traditional methods were also underestimated i.e. -37% for NOx, -35% for SO2, -43% for VOC, -43% for BC, -47% for OC and - 49% for PM2.5. Further, the proposed method also predicted within ∼7% of the national emission inventory for all pollutants. The bottom-up gridding methodology used in this paper could allocate the emissions to grid cell where more truck activity is expected, and it is verified against regional land-use data. Most importantly, using proposed method it is easy to segregate gridded emission inventory by truck type, which is of particular interest for decision makers, since currently there is no reliable method to test different truck-category specific travel-demand management strategies for air pollution control.

  6. Linking dynamic migration models to the real world; this report is a summary of the output of `Dynashop 1997'

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, M.; Ens, B.J.


    This report describes the results of an international workshop on putting dynamic models of migration to the test, which was partly financed by the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change. Aim of the workshop was to investigate the applicability of dynamic models of

  7. Effective mass approximation versus full atomistic model to calculate the output characteristics of a gate-all-around germanium nanowire field effect transistor (GAA-GeNW-FET) (United States)

    Bayani, Amir Hossein; Voves, Jan; Dideban, Daryoosh


    Here, we compare the output characteristics of a gate-all-around germanium nanowire field effect transistor (GAA-GeNW-FET) with 2.36 nm2 square cross-section area using tight-binding (TB) sp3d5s∗ model (full atomistic model (FAM)) and effective mass approximation (EMA). Synopsys/QuantumWise Atomistix ToolKit (ATK) and Silvaco Atlas3D are used to consider the TB model and EMA, respectively. Results show that EMA predicted only one quantum state (QS) for quantum transport, whereas FAM predicted three QSs. A cosine function behavior is obtained by both methods for the first quantum state. The calculated bandgap value by EMA is almost twice smaller than that of the FAM. Also, a fluctuating current is predicted by both methods but in different oscillation values.

  8. A Novel Approach to Develop the Lower Order Model of Multi-Input Multi-Output System (United States)

    Rajalakshmy, P.; Dharmalingam, S.; Jayakumar, J.


    A mathematical model is a virtual entity that uses mathematical language to describe the behavior of a system. Mathematical models are used particularly in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines like physics, biology, and electrical engineering as well as in the social sciences like economics, sociology and political science. Physicists, Engineers, Computer scientists, and Economists use mathematical models most extensively. With the advent of high performance processors and advanced mathematical computations, it is possible to develop high performing simulators for complicated Multi Input Multi Ouptut (MIMO) systems like Quadruple tank systems, Aircrafts, Boilers etc. This paper presents the development of the mathematical model of a 500 MW utility boiler which is a highly complex system. A synergistic combination of operational experience, system identification and lower order modeling philosophy has been effectively used to develop a simplified but accurate model of a circulation system of a utility boiler which is a MIMO system. The results obtained are found to be in good agreement with the physics of the process and with the results obtained through design procedure. The model obtained can be directly used for control system studies and to realize hardware simulators for boiler testing and operator training.

  9. Web-based Data Visualization of the MGClimDeX Climate Model Output: An Integrated Perspective of Climate Change Impact on Natural Resources in Highly Vulnerable Regions. (United States)

    Martinez-Rey, J.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Nangini, C.


    Earth System Models allow us to understand the interactions between climate and biogeological processes. These models generate a very large amount of data. These data are usually reduced to a few number of static figures shown in highly specialized scientific publications. However, the potential impacts of climate change demand a broader perspective regarding the ways in which climate model results of this kind are disseminated, particularly in the amount and variety of data, and the target audience. This issue is of great importance particularly for scientific projects that seek a large broadcast with different audiences on their key results. The MGClimDeX project, which assesses the climate change impact on La Martinique island in the Lesser Antilles, will provide tools and means to help the key stakeholders -responsible for addressing the critical social, economic, and environmental issues- to take the appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures in order to prevent future risks associated with climate variability and change, and its role on human activities. The MGClimDeX project will do so by using model output and data visualization techniques within the next year, showing the cross-connected impacts of climate change on various sectors (agriculture, forestry, ecosystems, water resources and fisheries). To address this challenge of representing large sets of data from model output, we use back-end data processing and front-end web-based visualization techniques, going from the conventional netCDF model output stored on hub servers to highly interactive web-based data-powered visualizations on browsers. We use the well-known javascript library D3.js extended with DC.js -a dimensional charting library for all the front-end interactive filtering-, in combination with Bokeh, a Python library to synthesize the data, all framed in the essential HTML+CSS scripts. The resulting websites exist as standalone information units or embedded into journals or scientific

  10. A Seasonal Model Using Optimized Multi-Layer Neural Networks to Forecast Power Output of PV Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Hu


    Full Text Available With the continuous increase of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV installed capacity and the urgent demand of synergetic utilization with the other power generation forms, the high-precision prediction of PV power generation is increasingly important for the optimal scheduling and safe operation of the grid. In order to improve the power prediction accuracy, using the response characteristics of PV array under different environmental conditions, a data driven multi-model power prediction method for PV power generation is proposed, based on the seasonal meteorological features. Firstly, through the analysis of PV power characteristics in typical seasons and seasonal distribution of the weather factors, such as solar irradiance and ambient temperature, the influences of different weather factors on PV power prediction are studied. Then, according to the meteorology characteristics of Beijing, different seasons can be divided. The historical data corresponding to different seasons are acquired and then the seasonal PV power forecasting models are established based on optimized multi-layer back propagation neural network (BPNN, realizing the multi-model prediction of PV power. Finally, effectiveness of the seasonal PV power forecasting method is compared and validated. The performance analysis of the neural network forecasting model under typical seasonal conditions shows that the multi-model forecasting method based on seasonal characteristics of PV power generation is better than that of single power forecasting model for the whole year. The results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the power forecasting accuracy of PV power.

  11. Scan-To Output Validation: Towards a Standardized Geometric Quality Assessment of Building Information Models Based on Point Clouds (United States)

    Bonduel, M.; Bassier, M.; Vergauwen, M.; Pauwels, P.; Klein, R.


    The use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) for existing buildings based on point clouds is increasing. Standardized geometric quality assessment of the BIMs is needed to make them more reliable and thus reusable for future users. First, available literature on the subject is studied. Next, an initial proposal for a standardized geometric quality assessment is presented. Finally, this method is tested and evaluated with a case study. The number of specifications on BIM relating to existing buildings is limited. The Levels of Accuracy (LOA) specification of the USIBD provides definitions and suggestions regarding geometric model accuracy, but lacks a standardized assessment method. A deviation analysis is found to be dependent on (1) the used mathematical model, (2) the density of the point clouds and (3) the order of comparison. Results of the analysis can be graphical and numerical. An analysis on macro (building) and micro (BIM object) scale is necessary. On macro scale, the complete model is compared to the original point cloud and vice versa to get an overview of the general model quality. The graphical results show occluded zones and non-modeled objects respectively. Colored point clouds are derived from this analysis and integrated in the BIM. On micro scale, the relevant surface parts are extracted per BIM object and compared to the complete point cloud. Occluded zones are extracted based on a maximum deviation. What remains is classified according to the LOA specification. The numerical results are integrated in the BIM with the use of object parameters.

  12. Evaluating the economic damages of transport disruptions using a transnational and interregional input-output model for Japan, China, and South Korea (United States)

    Irimoto, Hiroshi; Shibusawa, Hiroyuki; Miyata, Yuzuru


    Damage to transportation networks as a result of natural disasters can lead to economic losses due to lost trade along those links in addition to the costs of damage to the infrastructure itself. This study evaluates the economic damages of transport disruptions such as highways, tunnels, bridges, and ports using a transnational and interregional Input-Output Model that divides the world into 23 regions: 9 regions in Japan, 7 regions in China, and 4 regions in Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN5, and the USA to allow us to focus on Japan's regional and international links. In our simulation, economic ripple effects of both international and interregional transport disruptions are measured by changes in the trade coefficients in the input-output model. The simulation showed that, in the case of regional links in Japan, a transport disruption in the Kanmon Straits causes the most damage to our targeted world, resulting in economic damage of approximately 36.3 billion. In the case of international links among Japan, China, and Korea, damage to the link between Kanto in Japan and Huabei in China causes economic losses of approximately 31.1 billion. Our result highlights the importance of disaster prevention in the Kanmon Straits, Kanto, and Huabei to help ensure economic resilience.

  13. The OpenMI - its Transformation From a Research Output to a Global Standard for the Integrated Modelling Community (United States)

    Moore, R.


    The pressure to take a more integrated approach both to science and to management increases by the day. At almost any scale from local to global, it is no longer possible to consider issues in isolation; to do so runs a high risk of creating more problems than are solved. The consequence of this situation is that there is strong encouragement in the scientific world not just to understand and to be able to predict the response of individual processes but also to predict how those processes will interact. The manager is similarly encouraged to think in the widest terms about the likely impact of any policy before it is implemented. A new reservoir may solve a water supply problem but will it adversely affect the fishing and hence the tourist trade? How will climate change impact biodiversity? Will the drugs for treating a flu pandemic adversely affect river water quality? One approach to predicting such impacts would be to create new models simulating more and more processes. This, however, is neither feasible nor useful and makes poor use of the huge investment in existing models. A better approach, with many additional benefits, would be to find a way of linking existing models and modelling components such as databases or visualisation systems. Against this background, the European Commission, as part of its research programme to facilitate the introduction of integrated water management, commissioned a community project to find a generic solution to the linking of simulation models at run time. The outcome of this work was the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI) standard and the creation of the OpenMI Association, an open, non-proprietary, not-for-profit, international organisation for its support. The work has received widespread recognition and encouragement from across the world, especially in the USA. A second phase is now building a community to continue the OpenMI's development and promote its use. The community's vision, mission and implementation strategy

  14. The use of graph theory in the sensitivity analysis of the model output: a second order screening method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campolongo, Francesca; Braddock, Roger


    Sensitivity analysis screening methods aim to isolate the most important factors in experiments involving a large number of significant factors and interactions. This paper extends the one-factor-at-a-time screening method proposed by Morris. The new method, in addition to the 'overall' sensitivity measures already provided by the traditional Morris method, offers estimates of the two-factor interaction effects. The number of model evaluations required is O(k 2 ), where k is the number of model input factors. The efficient sampling strategy in the parameter space is based on concepts of graph theory and on the solution of the 'handcuffed prisoner problem'

  15. Nonlinear Fractional Sliding Mode Controller Based on Reduced Order FNPK Model for Output Power Control of Nuclear Research Reactors (United States)

    Davijani, Nafiseh Zare; Jahanfarnia, Gholamreza; Abharian, Amir Esmaeili


    One of the most important issues with respect to nuclear reactors is power control. In this study, we designed a fractional-order sliding mode controller based on a nonlinear fractional-order model of the reactor system in order to track the reference power trajectory and overcome uncertainties and external disturbances. Since not all of the variables in an operating reactor are measurable or specified in the control law, we propose a reduced-order fractional neutron point kinetic (ROFNPK) model based on measurable variables. In the design, we assume the differences between the approximated model and the real system is limited. We use the obtained model in the controller design process and use the Lyapunov method to perform a stability analysis of the closed-loop system. We simulate the proposed reduced-order fractional-order sliding mode controller (ROFOSMC) using Matlab/Simulink, and its performance is compared with that of a reduced order integer-order sliding mode controller (ROIOSMC). Our simulation results indicate an acceptable performance of the proposed approach in tracking the reference power trajectory with respect to ROIOSMC because of faster response of control effort signal and the smaller tracking error. Moreover, the results illustrate the capability of the controller in rejection of the disturbance and the noise signals and the robustness of controller against uncertainty.

  16. The Gamma renewal process as an output of the diffusion leaky integrate-and-fire neuronal model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lánský, Petr; Sacerdote, L.; Zucca, C.


    Roč. 110, 2-3 (2016), s. 193-200 ISSN 0340-1200 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA15-08066S Institutional support: RVO:67985823 Keywords : first-passage-time problem * leaky integrate-and-fire * Stein's neuronal model Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 1.716, year: 2016

  17. Research management and research output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Bosch


    Full Text Available Purpose: A study was conducted at two merged South African higher education institutions to determine which management factors, as identified in a literature study as well as through a factor analysis of survey data, were predictive of the dependent variable 'research output'. Problem investigated: Research output contributes to creating sustainability of knowledge of management sciences and therefore the active management of research is in the interest of progressive universities. Research management related activities are usually associated with measurable targets, detailed plans, rigorous evaluation and decisive action - all of which are observable (perhaps programmable behaviour also referred to as tangible factors. Authors argue that the tangible factors of any successful institution can be copied, technology can be bought, and in theory you should have an instantly thriving research institution. It is, however, clear that although many institutions have exactly the same technology and structure as their successful competitors, they still fail to succeed in increasing research output. Design and Research methodology or approach: A survey was distributed to n=411 and yielded a 49.6% response rate. A confirmatory reliability analysis as well as a factor analysis was conducted. Findings/implications: The empirical model that was derived through a factor analysis strengthens the argument that both tangible and intangible factors exist in a research environment. Tangible and intangible factors play a different role in predicting research output. The tangible factors are predictors of research output for non-research-active academics. The theoretical research output prediction model highlights predictors such as 'professional activities' and 'individual skills and competence' for specific groupings. The theoretical model indicates that the factors that predict research output are largely intrinsic to a researcher but could also be supported by

  18. Dynamic modeling and simulation of an induction motor with adaptive backstepping design of an input-output feedback linearization controller in series hybrid electric vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalalifar Mehran


    Full Text Available In this paper using adaptive backstepping approach an adaptive rotor flux observer which provides stator and rotor resistances estimation simultaneously for induction motor used in series hybrid electric vehicle is proposed. The controller of induction motor (IM is designed based on input-output feedback linearization technique. Combining this controller with adaptive backstepping observer the system is robust against rotor and stator resistances uncertainties. In additional, mechanical components of a hybrid electric vehicle are called from the Advanced Vehicle Simulator Software Library and then linked with the electric motor. Finally, a typical series hybrid electric vehicle is modeled and investigated. Various tests, such as acceleration traversing ramp, and fuel consumption and emission are performed on the proposed model of a series hybrid vehicle. Computer simulation results obtained, confirm the validity and performance of the proposed IM control approach using for series hybrid electric vehicle.

  19. UFO - The Universal FEYNRULES Output (United States)

    Degrande, Céline; Duhr, Claude; Fuks, Benjamin; Grellscheid, David; Mattelaer, Olivier; Reiter, Thomas


    We present a new model format for automatized matrix-element generators, the so-called Universal FEYNRULES Output (UFO). The format is universal in the sense that it features compatibility with more than one single generator and is designed to be flexible, modular and agnostic of any assumption such as the number of particles or the color and Lorentz structures appearing in the interaction vertices. Unlike other model formats where text files need to be parsed, the information on the model is encoded into a PYTHON module that can easily be linked to other computer codes. We then describe an interface for the MATHEMATICA package FEYNRULES that allows for an automatic output of models in the UFO format.

  20. Serving and Rendering Cluster-Based Ocean Model Output on a Geowall Using the Live Access Server (United States)

    Moore, C. W.; Hermann, A. J.; Dobbins, E. L.


    Scientists at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory are relying more and more on supercomputing platforms for their modeling efforts. Running ocean models on these large cluster machines poses problems in that domain sizes are increasing and tracking how the model dynamics are developing during a run requires high-bandwidth network time. In an effort to streamline this procedure both server and 3-D rending technology are utilized. Intermediate model results saved in netCDF file format can be served remotely to query model progress using the Live Access Server (LAS). In our implementation, a crontab script checks for model results and generates an XML data-file descriptor and adds the data set to the list of those available for LAS to serve up. On top of the default product choices (2-D plots, data listings, etc), the user can also chose one of two 3D file formats: either a VRML or a Vis5D file of the variable of interest. The LAS is built upon the Ferret data analysis package with the ability to re-grid variables defined on curvilinear coordinate grids and to serve up Vis5D files. An alternate back-end, written using the open-source Visualization Toolkit (VTK), can serve a VRML isosurface as well as current vector fields, keeping bandwidth low by utilizing topology-preserving polygon mesh decimation algorithms. Files served through our LAS system can be projected in passive stereo using a Geowall ( by either Vis5D, or by ImmersaView. While ImmersaView offers the ability to animate through the VRML isosurfaces in collaboration with a remote researcher, Vis5D (an older-technology application) gives the user the ability to explore the data more thoroughly by allowing the scientist to change isosurfaces levels, or to probe the data using contour or vector slices. We will explore the possibility of using LAS as the server for the parallel, composite-rendering application ParaView.

  1. Forecasting Brazilian output and its turning points in the presence of breaks: a comparison of linear and nonlinear models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brisne J. V. Céspedes


    Full Text Available This paper compares the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models under the presence of structural breaks for the Brazilian real GDP growth. The Markov switching models proposed by Hamilton (1989 and its generalized version by Lam (1990 are applied to quarterly GDP from 1975:1 to 2000:2 allowing for breaks at the Collor Plans. The probabilities of recessions are used to analyze the Brazilian business cycle. The in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting ability of growth rates of GDP of each model is compared with linear specifications and with a non-parametric rule. We find that the nonlinear models display a better forecasting performance than linear models. The specifications with the presence of structural breaks are important in obtaining a representation of the Brazilian business cycle and their inclusion improves considerably the models forecasting performance within and out-of-sample.Este artigo compara as habilidades preditivas de modelos lineares e não-lineares, com quebras estruturais, nas previsões da taxa de crescimento do PIB real do Brasil. Os modelos com mudanças de regime markovianas, propostos por Hamilton (1989 e generalizados por Lam (1990, são estimados para dados trimestrais de 1975:1 a 2000:2. Os modelos são estimados permitindo quebras estruturais durante os planos Collor. As probabilidades de recessão dos modelos são utilizadas para analisar o ciclo de negócios brasileiro. A capacidade de previsão da taxa de crescimento do PIB fora e dentro da amostra desses modelos é comparada com modelos lineares e com uma regra não-parametrizada. Os resultados indicam que os modelos não-lineares são os que apresentam o melhor desempenho preditivo quando comparados com modelos lineares. A inclusão de quebras estruturais é importante para a representação do ciclo de negócios no Brasil, além de levar a um desempenho de previsão consideravelmente melhor do que os modelos sem intervenção, dentro e fora de

  2. Output hardcopy devices

    CERN Document Server

    Durbeck, Robert


    Output Hardcopy Devices provides a technical summary of computer output hardcopy devices such as plotters, computer output printers, and CRT generated hardcopy. Important related technical areas such as papers, ribbons and inks, color techniques, controllers, and character fonts are also covered. Emphasis is on techniques primarily associated with printing, as well as the plotting capabilities of printing devices that can be effectively used for computer graphics in addition to their various printing functions. Comprised of 19 chapters, this volume begins with an introduction to vector and ras

  3. The ROHP-PAZ mission and the polarimetric and non-polarimetric effects of rain and other fozen hydrometeors on GNSS Radio-Occultation signals. (United States)

    De La Torre Juarez, M.; Padulles, R.; Cardellach, E.; Tomás, S.; Turk, J.; Ao, C. O.; Oliveras, S.; Rius, A.


    The Radio Occultation and Heavy Precipitation experiment aboard the PAZ Low Earth Orbiter (ROHP-PAZ) will test, for the first time, the new polarimetric radio occultation (RO) concept. This is a mission of opportunity: The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN) approved in 2009 a proposal to include a polarimetric Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) RO payload on board of the Spanish Earth Observation satellite PAZ. The launch of the satellite is scheduled for October 2015, and it will be followed by a 6-month commissioning phase period and has an expected life of 7 years, with a goal of 10 years.The concept is similar to that used in some polarimetric weather radars: to measure the differential phase shift between the two polarimetric components of the received signal, although in this case we will use the forward scattering geometry instead of the backscattering one. It will allow us to retrieve precipitation and other hydrometeors information, and simultaneous thermodynamic vertical profiles which will help to the understanding of the thermodynamic processes beyond heavy rain events. A sensitivity analysis has been performed, showing that the rain-induced effect is above PAZ detectability threshold in 90% of the events with along-ray averaged rain rate higher than 5 mm/h. Also, a ground field campaign has been conducted prior to the launch of the satellite. The measurements from the campaign have shown the first experimental evidences that precipitation and frozen hydrometeors induce a noticeable effect into the polarimetric RO observables. We will present here the actual status of the mission and the results from the field campaign. We will also discuss the results of the theoretical study of the thermodynamics and the effects of rain and frozen hydrometeors into standard and polarimetric RO, based on a large collocation exercise of COSMIC and TerrasSar-X with TRMM, GPM and CloudSat.

  4. Climatic change on the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America) using two-step statistical downscaling of CMIP5 model outputs (United States)

    Ribalaygua, Jaime; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert


    A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method's performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak).

  5. Characterization and modeling of the magnetic field-induced strain and work output in Ni2MnGa magnetic shape memory alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiefer, B.; Karaca, H.E.; Lagoudas, D.C.; Karaman, I.


    This paper is concerned with the experimental characterization and the constitutive modeling of magnetic shape memory alloys (MSMA), in terms of their applicability as actuator materials. The key properties that determine the actuation characteristics are the magnetic field-induced strain (MFIS) and the blocking stress. With the goal of increasing the corresponding actuation output, a material selection strategy was followed which was aimed at obtaining a higher magnetocrystalline anisotropy energy, while keeping the detwinning stress low. This was achieved by choosing a composition in which the separation of the Curie temperature and the martensitic transformation temperatures was large, and then selecting an operating temperature just below the phase transformation temperature. In the selected Ni 51.1 Mn 24.0 Ga 24.9 composition a more than 50% increase of the actuation work output was observed, compared to corresponding data reported in the literature for other off-stoichiometric compositions of the Ni 2 MnGa intermetallic compound. The second part of the paper describes a phenomenological constitutive model that predicts the MFIS hysteresis curves observed in the first part. The model is concerned with the field-induced reorientation of martensitic variants and changes in the magnetic microstructure. Dissipative effects are captured by introducing internal state variables into the free energy function. In its most general form the contributing energy terms are the elastic strain energy, the Zeeman energy, the magnetocrystalline anisotropy energy and appropriate mixing terms. Typical loading cases are considered and the accuracy of the model predictions is evaluated by comparison with the experimental data presented in the first part of this work

  6. Combined SAXS/EM based models of the S. elongatus post-translational circadian oscillator and its interactions with the output His-kinase SasA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rekha Pattanayek

    Full Text Available The circadian clock in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus is composed of a post-translational oscillator (PTO that can be reconstituted in vitro from three different proteins in the presence of ATP and a transcription-translation feedback loop (TTFL. The homo-hexameric KaiC kinase, phosphatase and ATPase alternates between hypo- and hyper-phosphorylated states over the 24-h cycle, with KaiA enhancing phosphorylation, and KaiB antagonizing KaiA and promoting KaiC subunit exchange. SasA is a His kinase that relays output signals from the PTO formed by the three Kai proteins to the TTFL. Although the crystal structures for all three Kai proteins are known, atomic resolution structures of Kai and Kai/SasA protein complexes have remained elusive. Here, we present models of the KaiAC and KaiBC complexes derived from solution small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS, which are consistent with previous EM based models. We also present a combined SAXS/EM model of the KaiC/SasA complex, which has two N-terminal SasA sensory domains occupying positions on the C-terminal KaiC ring reminiscent of the orientations adopted by KaiB dimers. Using EM we demonstrate that KaiB and SasA compete for similar binding sites on KaiC. We also propose an EM based model of the ternary KaiABC complex that is consistent with the sequestering of KaiA by KaiB on KaiC during the PTO dephosphorylation phase. This work provides the first 3D-catalogue of protein-protein interactions in the KaiABC PTO and the output pathway mediated by SasA.

  7. Multi-output model with Box-Jenkins operators of linear indices to predict multi-target inhibitors of ubiquitin-proteasome pathway. (United States)

    Casañola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong; Pérez-Giménez, Facundo; Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Merino-Sanjuán, Matilde; Abad, Concepción; González-Díaz, Humberto


    The ubiquitin-proteasome pathway (UPP) plays an important role in the degradation of cellular proteins and regulation of different cellular processes that include cell cycle control, proliferation, differentiation, and apoptosis. In this sense, the disruption of proteasome activity leads to different pathological states linked to clinical disorders such as inflammation, neurodegeneration, and cancer. The use of UPP inhibitors is one of the proposed approaches to manage these alterations. On other hand, the ChEMBL database contains >5,000 experimental outcomes for >2,000 compounds tested as possible proteasome inhibitors using a large number of pharmacological assay protocols. All these assays report a large number of experimental parameters of biological activity like EC50, IC50 percent of inhibition, and many others that have been determined under many different conditions, targets, organisms, etc. Although this large amount of data offers new opportunities for the computational discovery of proteasome inhibitors, the complexity of these data represents a bottleneck for the development of predictive models. In this work, we used linear molecular indices calculated with the software TOMOCOMD-CARDD and Box-Jenkins moving average operators to develop a multi-output model that can predict outcomes for 20 experimental parameters in >450 assays carried out under different conditions. This generated multi-output model showed values of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity above 70% for training and validation series. Finally, this model is considered multi-target and multi-scale, because it predicts the inhibition of the UPP for drugs against 22 molecular or cellular targets of different organisms contained in the ChEMBL database.

  8. Utilizing Free and Open Source Software to access, view and compare in situ observations, EO products and model output data (United States)

    Vines, Aleksander; Hamre, Torill; Lygre, Kjetil


    The GreenSeas project (Development of global plankton data base and model system for eco-climate early warning) aims to advance the knowledge and predictive capacities of how marine ecosystems will respond to global change. A main task has been to set up a data delivery and monitoring core service following the open and free data access policy implemented in the Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security (GMES) programme. The aim is to ensure open and free access to historical plankton data, new data (EO products and in situ measurements), model data (including estimates of simulation error) and biological, environmental and climatic indicators to a range of stakeholders, such as scientists, policy makers and environmental managers. To this end, we have developed a geo-spatial database of both historical and new in situ physical, biological and chemical parameters for the Southern Ocean, Atlantic, Nordic Seas and the Arctic, and organized related satellite-derived quantities and model forecasts in a joint geo-spatial repository. For easy access to these data, we have implemented a web-based GIS (Geographical Information Systems) where observed, derived and forcasted parameters can be searched, displayed, compared and exported. Model forecasts can also be uploaded dynamically to the system, to allow modelers to quickly compare their results with available in situ and satellite observations. We have implemented the web-based GIS(Geographical Information Systems) system based on free and open source technologies: Thredds Data Server, ncWMS, GeoServer, OpenLayers, PostGIS, Liferay, Apache Tomcat, PRTree, NetCDF-Java, json-simple, Geotoolkit, Highcharts, GeoExt, MapFish, FileSaver, jQuery, jstree and qUnit. We also wanted to used open standards to communicate between the different services and we use WMS, WFS, netCDF, GML, OPeNDAP, JSON, and SLD. The main advantage we got from using FOSS was that we did not have to invent the wheel all over again, but could use

  9. VMS forms Output Tables (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These output tables contain parsed and format validated data from the various VMS forms that are sent from any given vessel, while at sea, from the VMS devices on...

  10. Comparison of two output-coding strategies for multi-class tumor classification using gene expression data and Latent Variable Model as binary classifier. (United States)

    Joseph, Sandeep J; Robbins, Kelly R; Zhang, Wensheng; Rekaya, Romdhane


    Multi-class cancer classification based on microarray data is described. A generalized output-coding scheme based on One Versus One (OVO) combined with Latent Variable Model (LVM) is used. Results from the proposed One Versus One (OVO) outputcoding strategy is compared with the results obtained from the generalized One Versus All (OVA) method and their efficiencies of using them for multi-class tumor classification have been studied. This comparative study was done using two microarray gene expression data: Global Cancer Map (GCM) dataset and brain cancer (BC) dataset. Primary feature selection was based on fold change and penalized t-statistics. Evaluation was conducted with varying feature numbers. The OVO coding strategy worked quite well with the BC data, while both OVO and OVA results seemed to be similar for the GCM data. The selection of output coding methods for combining binary classifiers for multi-class tumor classification depends on the number of tumor types considered, the discrepancies between the tumor samples used for training as well as the heterogeneity of expression within the cancer subtypes used as training data.

  11. Modeling of Combined Heat and Power Plant Based on a Multi-Stage Gasifier and Internal Combustion Engines of Various Power Outputs (United States)

    Khudyakova, G. I.; Kozlov, A. N.; Svishchev, D. A.


    The paper is concerned with an integrated system of internal combustion engine and mini combined heat and power plant (ICE-CHP). The system is based on multi-stage wood biomass gasification. The use of producer gas in the system affects negatively the internal combustion engine performance and, therefore, reduces the efficiency of the ICE-CHP plant. A mathematical model of an internal combustion engine running on low-calorie producer gas was developed using an overview of Russian and foreign manufacturers of reciprocating units, that was made in the research. A thermal calculation was done for four-stroke gas engines of different rated power outputs (30, 100 and 250 kW), running on producer gas (CO2 - 10.2, CO - 45.8, N2 - 38.8%). Thermal calculation demonstrates that the engine exhaust gas temperature reaches 500 - 600°C at the rated power level and with the lower engine power, the temperature gets higher. For example, for an internal combustion engine power of 1000 kW the temperature of exhaust gases equals 400°C. A comparison of the efficiency of engine operation on natural gas and producer gas shows that with the use of producer gas the power output declines from 300 to 250 kWe. The reduction in the effective efficiency in this case makes up 2%. The measures are proposed to upgrade the internal combustion engine to enable it to run on low-calorie producer gas.

  12. A Multi-Objective Input–Output Linear Model for Water Supply, Economic Growth and Environmental Planning in Resource-Based Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlan Ke


    Full Text Available Water resource and environment capacity have become two of the most important restrictions for sustainable development in resource-based cities whose leading industries are the exploitation and processing of resources. Taking Ordos in China as an example, this article constructs an integrated model combining a multi-objective optimization model with input–output analysis to achieve the tradeoffs between economic growth, water utilization and environmental protection. This dynamic model includes socioeconomic, water supply–demand, water quality control, air quality control, energy consumption control and integrated policy sub-models. These six sub-models interact with each other. After simulation, this article proposes efficient solutions on industrial restructuring by maximizing the Gross Regional Product of Ordos from 394.3 in 2012 to 785.1 billion RMB in 2025 with a growth rate of 6.4% annually; and presents a water supply plan by maximizing the proportion of reclaimed water from 2% to 6.3% through sewage treatment technology selection and introduction, and effective water allocation. Meanwhile, the environmental impacts are all in line with the planning targets. This study illustrates that the integrated modeling is generic and can be applied to any region suffering uncoordinated development issues and can serve as a pre-evaluation approach for conducting early warning research to offer suggestions for government decision-making.

  13. The Simulation of Daily Temperature Time Series from GCM Output. Part I: Comparison of Model Data with Observations. (United States)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Winkler, J. A.; Goodess, C. M.; Andresen, J. A.


    For climate change impact analyses, local scenarios of surface variables at the daily scales are frequently required. Empirical transfer functions are a widely used technique to generate scenarios from GCM data at these scales. For successful downscaling, the impact analyst should take into account certain considerations. First, it must be demonstrated that the GCM simulations of the required variable are unrealistic and therefore that downscaling is required. Second, it must be shown that the GCM simulations of the selected predictor variables are realistic. Where errors occur, attempts must be made to compensate for their effect on the transfer function-generated predictions or, where this is not possible, the effect on the transfer function-generated climate series must be understood. Third, the changes in the predictors between the control and perturbed simulation must be examined in the light of the implications for the change in the predicted variable. Finally, the effect of decisions made during the development of the transfer functions on the final result should be explored. This study, presented in two parts, addresses these considerations with respect to the development of local scenarios for daily maximum (TMAX) and minimum (TMIN) temperature for two sites, one in North America (Eau Claire, Michigan) and one in Europe (Alcantarilla, Spain).Part I confirms for a selected GCM that simulations of daily TMAX and TMIN, whether taken from the nearest land grid point, or obtained by interpolation to the site location, are inadequate. Differences between the GCM 1 × CO2 and observed temperature series arise because of a 0°C threshold in the model data. At both sites, variability is suppressed during periods affected by the threshold. The thresholds persist into the perturbed simulation, affecting not only GCM-predicted 2 × CO2 temperatures but also, because the duration and timing of the threshold effect changes in the perturbed simulation, the magnitude and

  14. Influence of Rainfall Product on Hydrological and Sediment Outputs when Calibrating the STREAP Rainfall Generator for the CAESAR-Lisflood Landscape Evolution Model (United States)

    Skinner, Christopher; Peleg, Nadav; Quinn, Niall


    The use of Landscape Evolution Models often requires a timeseries of rainfall to drive the model. The spatial and temporal resolution of the driving data has an impact on several model outputs, including the shape of the landscape itself. Attempts to compensate for the spatiotemporal smoothing of local rainfall intensities are insufficient and may exacerbate these issues, meaning that to produce the best results the model needs to be run with data of highest spatial and temporal resolutions available. Some rainfall generators are able to produce timeseries with high spatial and temporal resolution. Observed data is used for the calibration of these generators. However, rainfall observations are highly uncertain and vary between different products (e.g. raingauges, weather radar) which may cascade through the Landscape Evolution Model. Here, we used the STREAP rainfall generator to produce high spatial (1km) and temporal (hourly) resolution ensembles of rainfall for a 50-year period, and used these to drive the CAESAR-Lisflood Landscape Evolution Model for a test catchment. Three different calibrations of STREAP were used against different products: gridded raingauge (TBR), weather radar (NIMROD), and a merged of the two. Analysis of the discharge and sediment yields from the model runs showed that the models run by STREAP calibrated by the different products were statistically significantly different, with the raingauge calibration producing 12.4 % more sediment on average over the 50-year period. The merged product produced results which were between the raingauge and radar products. The results demonstrate the importance of considering the selection of rainfall driving data on Landscape Evolution Modelling. Rainfall products are highly uncertain, different instruments will observe rainfall differently, and these uncertainties are clearly shown to cascade through the calibration of the rainfall generator and the Landscape Evolution Model. Merging raingauge and

  15. Mechanosensing in myosin filament solves a 60 years old conflict in skeletal muscle modeling between high power output and slow rise in tension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Marcucci


    Full Text Available Almost 60 years ago Andrew Huxley with his seminal paper [Huxley1957] laid the foundation of modern muscle modeling, linking chemical events to mechanical performance. He described mechanics and energetics of muscle contraction through the cyclical attachment and detachment of myosin motors to the actin filament with ad hoc assumptions on the dependence of the rate constants on the strain of the myosin motors. That relatively simple hypothesis is still present in recent models, even though with several modifications to adapt the model to the different experimental constraints which became subsequently available. However, already in that paper, one controversial aspect of the model became clear. Relatively high attachment and detachment rates of myosin to the actin filament were needed to simulate the high power output at intermediate velocity of contraction. However, these rates were incompatible with the relatively slow rise in tension after activation, despite the rise should be generated by the same rate functions. This discrepancy has not been fully solved till today, despite several hypotheses have been forwarded to reconcile the two aspects.Here, using a conventional muscle model, we show that the recently revealed mechanosensing mechanism of recruitment of myosin motors [Linarietal2015] can solve this long standing problem without any further ad-hoc hypotheses.

  16. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)


    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  17. Effects of Commercial Apple Varieties on Human Gut Microbiota Composition and Metabolic Output Using an In Vitro Colonic Model (United States)

    Koutsos, Athanasios; Lima, Maria; Conterno, Lorenza; Gasperotti, Mattia; Bianchi, Martina; Fava, Francesca; Vrhovsek, Urska; Lovegrove, Julie A.; Tuohy, Kieran M.


    Apples are a rich source of polyphenols and fiber. A major proportion of apple polyphenols escape absorption in the small intestine and together with non-digestible polysaccharides reach the colon, where they can serve as substrates for bacterial fermentation. Animal studies suggest a synergistic interaction between apple polyphenols and the soluble fiber pectin; however, the effects of whole apples on human gut microbiota are less extensively studied. Three commercial apple varieties—Renetta Canada, Golden Delicious and Pink Lady—were digested and fermented in vitro using a batch culture colonic model (pH 5.5–6.0, 37 °C) inoculated with feces from three healthy donors. Inulin and cellulose were used as a readily and a poorly fermentable plant fiber, respectively. Fecal microbiota composition was measured by 16S rRNA gene Illumina MiSeq sequencing (V3-V4 region) and Fluorescence in Situ Hybridization. Short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and polyphenol microbial metabolites were determined. The three apple varieties significantly changed bacterial diversity, increased Actinobacteria relative abundance, acetate, propionate and total SCFAs (p < 0.05). Renetta Canada and Golden Delicious significantly decreased Bacteroidetes abundance and increased Proteobacteria proportion and bifidobacteria population (p < 0.05). Renetta Canada also increased Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, butyrate levels and polyphenol microbial metabolites (p < 0.05). Together, these data suggest that apples, particularly Renetta Canada, can induce substantial changes in microbiota composition and metabolic activity in vitro, which could be associated with potential benefits to human health. Human intervention studies are necessary to confirm these data and potential beneficial effects. PMID:28538678

  18. Analysis of Low-Carbon Economy Efficiency of Chinese Industrial Sectors Based on a RAM Model with Undesirable Outputs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Meng


    Full Text Available Industrial energy and environment efficiency evaluation become especially crucial as industrial sectors play a key role in CO2 emission reduction and energy consumption. This study adopts the additive range-adjusted measure data envelope analysis (RAM-DEA model to estimate the low-carbon economy efficiency of Chinese industrial sectors in 2001–2013. In addition, the CO2 emission intensity mitigation target for each industrial sector is assigned. Results show that, first, most sectors are not completely efficient, but they have experienced and have improved greatly during the period. These sectors can be divided into four categories, namely, mining, light, heavy, and electricity, gas, and water supply industries. The efficiency is diverse among the four industrial categories. The average efficiency of the light industry is the highest among the industries, followed by those of the mining and the electricity, gas, and water supply industries, and that of the heavy industry is the lowest. Second, the electricity, gas, and water supply industry shows the biggest potential for CO2 emission reduction, thus containing most of the sectors with large CO2 emission intensity mitigation targets (more than 45%, followed by the mining and the light industries. Therefore, the Chinese government should formulate diverse and flexible policy implementations according to the actual situation of the different sectors. Specifically, the sectors with low efficiency should be provided with additional policy support (such as technology and finance aids to improve their industrial efficiency, whereas the electricity, gas, and water supply industry should maximize CO2 emission reduction.

  19. Effects of Commercial Apple Varieties on Human Gut Microbiota Composition and Metabolic Output Using an In Vitro Colonic Model. (United States)

    Koutsos, Athanasios; Lima, Maria; Conterno, Lorenza; Gasperotti, Mattia; Bianchi, Martina; Fava, Francesca; Vrhovsek, Urska; Lovegrove, Julie A; Tuohy, Kieran M


    Apples are a rich source of polyphenols and fiber. A major proportion of apple polyphenols escape absorption in the small intestine and together with non-digestible polysaccharides reach the colon, where they can serve as substrates for bacterial fermentation. Animal studies suggest a synergistic interaction between apple polyphenols and the soluble fiber pectin; however, the effects of whole apples on human gut microbiota are less extensively studied. Three commercial apple varieties-Renetta Canada, Golden Delicious and Pink Lady-were digested and fermented in vitro using a batch culture colonic model (pH 5.5-6.0, 37 °C) inoculated with feces from three healthy donors. Inulin and cellulose were used as a readily and a poorly fermentable plant fiber, respectively. Fecal microbiota composition was measured by 16S rRNA gene Illumina MiSeq sequencing (V3-V4 region) and Fluorescence in Situ Hybridization. Short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and polyphenol microbial metabolites were determined. The three apple varieties significantly changed bacterial diversity, increased Actinobacteria relative abundance, acetate, propionate and total SCFAs ( p < 0.05). Renetta Canada and Golden Delicious significantly decreased Bacteroidetes abundance and increased Proteobacteria proportion and bifidobacteria population ( p < 0.05). Renetta Canada also increased Faecalibacterium prausnitzii , butyrate levels and polyphenol microbial metabolites ( p < 0.05). Together, these data suggest that apples, particularly Renetta Canada, can induce substantial changes in microbiota composition and metabolic activity in vitro, which could be associated with potential benefits to human health. Human intervention studies are necessary to confirm these data and potential beneficial effects.

  20. Comparing urban solid waste recycling from the viewpoint of urban metabolism based on physical input-output model: A case of Suzhou in China. (United States)

    Liang, Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu


    Investigating impacts of urban solid waste recycling on urban metabolism contributes to sustainable urban solid waste management and urban sustainability. Using a physical input-output model and scenario analysis, urban metabolism of Suzhou in 2015 is predicted and impacts of four categories of solid waste recycling on urban metabolism are illustrated: scrap tire recycling, food waste recycling, fly ash recycling and sludge recycling. Sludge recycling has positive effects on reducing all material flows. Thus, sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. Moreover, technical levels of scrap tire recycling and food waste recycling should be improved to produce positive effects on reducing more material flows. Fly ash recycling for cement production has negative effects on reducing all material flows except solid wastes. Thus, other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. In addition, the utilization and treatment of secondary wastes from food waste recycling and sludge recycling should be concerned. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Doppler lidar observations of sensible heat flux and intercomparisons with a ground-based energy balance station and WRF model output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Davis


    Full Text Available During the Convective and Orographically induced Precipitation Study (COPS, a scanning Doppler lidar was deployed at Achern, Baden-Wüttemberg, Germany from 13th June to 16th August 2007. Vertical velocity profiles ('rays' through the boundary layer were measured every 3 seconds with vertical profiles of horizontal wind velocity being derived from performing azimuth scans every 30 minutes. During Intense Observation Periods radiosondes were launched from the site. In this paper, a case study of convective boundary layer development on 15th July 2007 is investigated. Estimates of eddy dissipation rate are made from the vertically pointing lidar data and used as one input to the velocity-temperature co-variance equation to estimate sensible heat flux. The sensible heat flux values calculated from Doppler lidar data are compared with a surface based energy balance station and output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model.

  2. Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects by supply-driven input-output model: A case study of Taiwan's industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Kuei-Yen; Wu, Jung-Hua; Huang, Yun-Hsun; Fu, Szu-Chi; Chen, Chia-Yon


    Most existing literature focuses on the direct rebound effect on the demand side for consumers. This study analyses direct and indirect rebound effects in Taiwan's industry from the perspective of producers. However, most studies on the producers' viewpoint may overlook inter-industry linkages. This study applies a supply-driven input-output model to quantify the magnitude of rebound effects by explicitly considering inter-industry linkages. Empirical results showed that total rebound effects for most Taiwan's sectors were less than 10% in 2011. A comparison among the sectors yields that sectors with lower energy efficiency had higher direct rebound effects, while sectors with higher forward linkages generated higher indirect rebound effects. Taking the Mining sector (S3) as an example, which is an upstream supplier and has high forward linkages; it showed high indirect rebound effects that are derived from the accumulation of additional energy consumption by its downstream producers. The findings also showed that in almost all sectors, indirect rebound effects were higher than direct rebound effects. In other words, if indirect rebound effects are neglected, the total rebound effects will be underestimated. Hence, the energy-saving potential may be overestimated. - Highlights: • This study quantifies rebound effects by a supply-driven input-output model. • For most Taiwan's sectors, total rebound magnitudes were less than 10% in 2011. • Direct rebound effects and energy efficiency were inverse correlation. • Indirect rebound effects and industrial forward linkages were positive correlation. • Indirect rebound effects were generally higher than direct rebound effects.

  3. Cardiac output measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreja Möller Petrun


    Full Text Available In recent years, developments in the measuring of cardiac output and other haemodynamic variables are focused on the so-called minimally invasive methods. The aim of these methods is to simplify the management of high-risk and haemodynamically unstable patients. Due to the need of invasive approach and the possibility of serious complications the use of pulmonary artery catheter has decreased. This article describes the methods for measuring cardiac output, which are based on volume measurement (Fick method, indicator dilution method, pulse wave analysis, Doppler effect, and electrical bioimpedance.

  4. Oil output's changing fortunes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldridge, D.


    The Petroleum Economist, previously the Petroleum Press Service, has been making annual surveys of output levels of petroleum in all the oil-producing countries since its founding in 1934. This article documents trends and changes in the major oil-producing countries output from 1934 until the present. This analysis is linked with the political and historical events accompanying these changes, notably the growth of Middle Eastern oil production, the North Sea finds and most recently, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990. (UK)

  5. Minimal output sets for identifiability. (United States)

    Anguelova, Milena; Karlsson, Johan; Jirstrand, Mats


    Ordinary differential equation models in biology often contain a large number of parameters that must be determined from measurements by parameter estimation. For a parameter estimation procedure to be successful, there must be a unique set of parameters that can have produced the measured data. This is not the case if a model is not uniquely structurally identifiable with the given set of outputs selected as measurements. In designing an experiment for the purpose of parameter estimation, given a set of feasible but resource-consuming measurements, it is useful to know which ones must be included in order to obtain an identifiable system, or whether the system is unidentifiable from the feasible measurement set. We have developed an algorithm that, from a user-provided set of variables and parameters or functions of them assumed to be measurable or known, determines all subsets that when used as outputs give a locally structurally identifiable system and are such that any output set for which the system is structurally identifiable must contain at least one of the calculated subsets. The algorithm has been implemented in Mathematica and shown to be feasible and efficient. We have successfully applied it in the analysis of large signalling pathway models from the literature. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. The European Distribution of Sus Scrofa. Model Outputs from the Project Described within the Poster – Where are All the Boars? An Attempt to Gain a Continental Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Stewart Alexander


    Full Text Available Wild boar is a host of a number of arthropod-vectored diseases and its numbers are on the rise in mainland Europe. The species potentially impacts ecosystems, humans and farming practices and so its distribution is of interest to policy makers in a number of fields beyond that of the primarily epidemiological goal of this study. Three statistical model outputs describing the distribution and abundance of the species Sus scrofa (Wild boar are included in this data package. The extent of this dataset covers continental Europe. These data were presented as a poster [1] at the conference Genes, Ecosystems and Risk of Infection (GERI 2015. The first of the three models provide a European map presenting the probability of presence of Sus scrofa, which can be used to describe the likely geographical distribution of the species. The second and third models provide indices to help describe the likely abundance across the continent. The two indices include “the proportion of suitable habitat where presence is estimated” and a simple classification of boar abundance across Europe using quantiles of existing abundance data and proxies.

  7. Puako Ecosystem Model Output Data (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Coral reefs provide a wide range of ecosystem services that are valued differently by different users. Managers are challenged to comprehensively address the full...

  8. Early-Transition Output Decline Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crt Kostevc


    Full Text Available In this paper we revisit the issue of aggregate output decline that took place in the early transition period. We propose an alternative explanation of output decline that is applicable to Central- and Eastern-European countries. In the first part of the paper we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model that builds on work by Gomulka and Lane (2001. In particular, we consider price liberalization, interpreted as elimination of distortionary taxation, as a trigger of the output decline. We show that price liberalization in interaction with heterogeneous adjustment costs and non-employment benefits lead to aggregate output decline and surge in wage inequality. While these patterns are consistent with actual dynamics in CEE countries, this model cannot generate output decline in all sectors. Instead sectors that were initially taxed even exhibit output growth. Thus, in the second part we consider an alternative general equilibrium model with only one production sector and two types of labor and distortion in a form of wage compression during the socialist era. The trigger for labor mobility and consequently output decline is wage liberalization. Assuming heterogeneity of workers in terms of adjustment costs and non-employment benefits can explain output decline in all industries.

  9. Comparisons of four categories of waste recycling in China's paper industry based on physical input-output life-cycle assessment model. (United States)

    Liang, Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu; Xu, Yijian


    Waste recycling for paper production is an important component of waste management. This study constructs a physical input-output life-cycle assessment (PIO-LCA) model. The PIO-LCA model is used to investigate environmental impacts of four categories of waste recycling in China's paper industry: crop straws, bagasse, textile wastes and scrap paper. Crop straw recycling and wood utilization for paper production have small total intensity of environmental impacts. Moreover, environmental impacts reduction of crop straw recycling and wood utilization benefits the most from technology development. Thus, using crop straws and wood (including wood wastes) for paper production should be promoted. Technology development has small effects on environmental impacts reduction of bagasse recycling, textile waste recycling and scrap paper recycling. In addition, bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling have big total intensity of environmental impacts. Thus, the development of bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling should be properly limited. Other pathways for reusing bagasse and textile wastes should be explored and evaluated. Moreover, imports of scrap paper should be encouraged to reduce large indirect impacts of scrap paper recycling on domestic environment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Comparisons of four categories of waste recycling in China’s paper industry based on physical input–output life-cycle assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Sai; Zhang, Tianzhu; Xu Yijian


    Highlights: ► Using crop straws and wood wastes for paper production should be promoted. ► Bagasse and textile waste recycling should be properly limited. ► Imports of scrap paper should be encouraged. ► Sensitivity analysis, uncertainties and policy implications are discussed. - Abstract: Waste recycling for paper production is an important component of waste management. This study constructs a physical input–output life-cycle assessment (PIO-LCA) model. The PIO-LCA model is used to investigate environmental impacts of four categories of waste recycling in China’s paper industry: crop straws, bagasse, textile wastes and scrap paper. Crop straw recycling and wood utilization for paper production have small total intensity of environmental impacts. Moreover, environmental impacts reduction of crop straw recycling and wood utilization benefits the most from technology development. Thus, using crop straws and wood (including wood wastes) for paper production should be promoted. Technology development has small effects on environmental impacts reduction of bagasse recycling, textile waste recycling and scrap paper recycling. In addition, bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling have big total intensity of environmental impacts. Thus, the development of bagasse recycling and textile waste recycling should be properly limited. Other pathways for reusing bagasse and textile wastes should be explored and evaluated. Moreover, imports of scrap paper should be encouraged to reduce large indirect impacts of scrap paper recycling on domestic environment.

  11. Multi-output Model with Box-Jenkins Operators of Quadratic Indices for Prediction of Malaria and Cancer Inhibitors Targeting Ubiquitin- Proteasome Pathway (UPP) Proteins. (United States)

    Casañola-Martin, Gerardo M; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong; Pérez-Giménez, Facundo; Marrero-Ponce, Yovani; Merino-Sanjuán, Matilde; Abad, Concepción; González-Díaz, Humberto


    The ubiquitin-proteasome pathway (UPP) is the primary degradation system of short-lived regulatory proteins. Cellular processes such as the cell cycle, signal transduction, gene expression, DNA repair and apoptosis are regulated by this UPP and dysfunctions in this system have important implications in the development of cancer, neurodegenerative, cardiac and other human pathologies. UPP seems also to be very important in the function of eukaryote cells of the human parasites like Plasmodium falciparum, the causal agent of the neglected disease Malaria. Hence, the UPP could be considered as an attractive target for the development of compounds with Anti-Malarial or Anti-cancer properties. Recent online databases like ChEMBL contains a larger quantity of information in terms of pharmacological assay protocols and compounds tested as UPP inhibitors under many different conditions. This large amount of data give new openings for the computer-aided identification of UPP inhibitors, but the intrinsic data diversity is an obstacle for the development of successful classifiers. To solve this problem here we used the Bob-Jenkins moving average operators and the atom-based quadratic molecular indices calculated with the software TOMOCOMD-CARDD (TC) to develop a quantitative model for the prediction of the multiple outputs in this complex dataset. Our multi-target model can predict results for drugs against 22 molecular or cellular targets of different organisms with accuracies above 70% in both training and validation sets.

  12. Modeling of falling snow properties for snowpack models: towards a better link between falling snow and snow on the ground (United States)

    Vionnet, Vincent; Milbrandt, Jason; Yamaguchi, Satoru; Morrison, Hugh


    Falling snow is made of different types of solid hydrometeors including single ice crystals, aggregates at different riming stages and graupel. This variability results from complex in-cloud processes (deposition, riming and aggregation) and sub-cloud processes (melting and sublimation). It has consequences for the properties of fresh fallen snow accumulating on the ground including density and specific surface area (SSA). These properties strongly affect the evolution of snow on the ground by modifying for example the albedo and the thermal conductivity. Detailed snowpack models such as Crocus or SNOWPACK use near-surface wind speed, air temperature and humidity to compute the density and SSA of falling snow. The shape, size and degree of riming of falling solid hydrometeors are not directly taken into account, which limit the accurate determination of properties of fresh fallen snow. An alternative is offered by new bulk cloud microphysics schemes implemented in numerical weather prediction system that can be used to drive snowpack model. In particular, the scheme P3 (Predicted Particle Properties) proposes an innovative representation of all ice-phase particles by predicting several physical properties (e.g. size, rime fraction, rime density …). In this study, we first theoretically analyze the strengths and limitations of P3 to represent the density and SSA of falling snow. Parameterizations are then proposed to derive density and SSA from P3 output. Finally, P3 implemented in the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) weather prediction model is used to simulate snowfall events observed at the Falling Snow Observatory (Nagoaka, Japan). Model predictions are compared with (i) observations of the type of falling snow particles derived from disdrometer data and (ii) manual measurements of fresh fallen snow density and SSA. This study is a first step towards the development of a more integrated approach between falling snow and snow on the ground.

  13. Economic analysis of energy supply and national economy on the basis of general equilibrium models. Applications of the input-output decomposition analysis and the Computable General Equilibrium models shown by the example of Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Jong-Hwan.


    Firstly, this study investigaties the causes of sectoral growth and structural changes in the Korean economy. Secondly, it develops the borders of a consistent economic model in order to investigate simultaneously the different impacts of changes in energy and in the domestic economy. This is done any both the Input-Output-Decomposition analysis and a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE Model). The CGE Model eliminates the disadvantages of the IO Model and allows the investigation of the interdegenerative of the various energy sectors with the economy. The Social Accounting Matrix serves as the data basis of the GCE Model. Simulated experiments have been comet out with the help of the GCE Model, indicating the likely impact of an oil price shock in the economy-sectorally and generally. (orig.) [de

  14. Criticality alarm output device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Takashi.


    The present invention concerns a device used for detection of a critical accident in facilities which handle nuclear fuels, which especially removes the influences of external noises. Namely, a radiation detector outputs logic signals based on trip signals generated by the change of the radiation dose due to occurrence of a critical accident. The logic signal is sent to a logic judging circuit by way of a transmission path present individually in each of radiation detectors. The radiation detector comprises a first inverting means which sends a signal having a level inverted to a logic signal level to the logic judging circuit passing through a transmission path. The logic judging circuit comprises a second reversing means for inverting the level of the signal from the first inverting means and a signal judging means which outputs a conditional signal when the output sent from the second inverting means and the logic signal sent from the radiation detector arrive simultaneously. With such a constitution, influences of external noises intruded to the transmission path can be removed. (I.S.)

  15. Comparing urban solid waste recycling from the viewpoint of urban metabolism based on physical input–output model: A case of Suzhou in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Sai; Zhang Tianzhu


    Highlights: ► Impacts of solid waste recycling on Suzhou’s urban metabolism in 2015 are analyzed. ► Sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. ► Technical levels of reusing scrap tires and food wastes should be improved. ► Other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. ► Secondary wastes from reusing food wastes and sludge should be concerned. - Abstract: Investigating impacts of urban solid waste recycling on urban metabolism contributes to sustainable urban solid waste management and urban sustainability. Using a physical input–output model and scenario analysis, urban metabolism of Suzhou in 2015 is predicted and impacts of four categories of solid waste recycling on urban metabolism are illustrated: scrap tire recycling, food waste recycling, fly ash recycling and sludge recycling. Sludge recycling has positive effects on reducing all material flows. Thus, sludge recycling for biogas is regarded as an accepted method. Moreover, technical levels of scrap tire recycling and food waste recycling should be improved to produce positive effects on reducing more material flows. Fly ash recycling for cement production has negative effects on reducing all material flows except solid wastes. Thus, other fly ash utilization methods should be exploited. In addition, the utilization and treatment of secondary wastes from food waste recycling and sludge recycling should be concerned.

  16. Output-only modal parameter estimator of linear time-varying structural systems based on vector TAR model and least squares support vector machine (United States)

    Zhou, Si-Da; Ma, Yuan-Chen; Liu, Li; Kang, Jie; Ma, Zhi-Sai; Yu, Lei


    Identification of time-varying modal parameters contributes to the structural health monitoring, fault detection, vibration control, etc. of the operational time-varying structural systems. However, it is a challenging task because there is not more information for the identification of the time-varying systems than that of the time-invariant systems. This paper presents a vector time-dependent autoregressive model and least squares support vector machine based modal parameter estimator for linear time-varying structural systems in case of output-only measurements. To reduce the computational cost, a Wendland's compactly supported radial basis function is used to achieve the sparsity of the Gram matrix. A Gamma-test-based non-parametric approach of selecting the regularization factor is adapted for the proposed estimator to replace the time-consuming n-fold cross validation. A series of numerical examples have illustrated the advantages of the proposed modal parameter estimator on the suppression of the overestimate and the short data. A laboratory experiment has further validated the proposed estimator.

  17. Analyzing the Effects of the Iranian Energy Subsidy Reform Plan on Short- Run Marginal Generation Cost of Electricity Using Extended Input-Output Price Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Salimian


    Full Text Available Subsidizing energy in Iran has imposed high costs on country's economy. Thus revising energy prices, on the basis of a subsidy reform plan, is a vital remedy to boost up the economy. While the direct consequence of cutting subsidies on electricity generation costs can be determined in a simple way, identifying indirect effects, which reflect higher costs for input factors such as labor, is a challenging problem. In this paper, variables such as compensation of employees and private consumption are endogenized by using extended Input-Output (I-O price model to evaluate direct and indirect effects of electricity and fuel prices increase on economic subsectors. The determination of the short-run marginal generation cost of electricity using I-O technique with taken into account the Iranian targeted subsidy plan's influences is the main goal of this paper. Marginal cost of electricity, in various scenarios of price adjustment of energy, is estimated for three conventional categories of thermal power plants. Our results show that the raising the price of energy leads to an increase in the electricity production costs. Accordingly, the production costs will be higher than 1000 Rials per kWh until 2014 as predicted in the beginning of the reform plan by electricity suppliers.

  18. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Trace Gas Columns Derived from WRF/Chem Regional Model Output: Planning for Geostationary Observations of Atmospheric Composition (United States)

    Follette-Cook, M. B.; Pickering, K.; Crawford, J.; Duncan, B.; Loughner, C.; Diskin, G.; Fried, A.; Weinheimer, A.


    We quantify both the spatial and temporal variability of column integrated O3, NO2, CO, SO2, and HCHO over the Baltimore / Washington, DC area using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with on-line chemistry (WRF/Chem) for the entire month of July 2011, coinciding with the first deployment of the NASA Earth Venture program mission Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ). Using structure function analyses, we find that the model reproduces the spatial variability observed during the campaign reasonably well, especially for O3. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) instrument will be the first NASA mission to make atmospheric composition observations from geostationary orbit and partially fulfills the goals of the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) mission. We relate the simulated variability to the precision requirements defined by the science traceability matrices of these space-borne missions. Results for O3 from 0- 2 km altitude indicate that the TEMPO instrument would be able to observe O3 air quality events over the Mid-Atlantic area, even on days when the violations of the air quality standard are not widespread. The results further indicated that horizontal gradients in CO from 0-2 km would be observable over moderate distances (= 20 km). The spatial and temporal results for tropospheric column NO2 indicate that TEMPO would be able to observe not only the large urban plumes at times of peak production, but also the weaker gradients between rush hours. This suggests that the proposed spatial and temporal resolutions for these satellites as well as their prospective precision requirements are sufficient to answer the science questions they are tasked to address.

  19. Feedback of Deep Moist Convection to Its Near Environment as Diagnosed from Three-Dimensional Numerical Model Output. Results from an Early Experiment. (United States)

    Schlesinger, Rosert E.


    This paper presents preliminary results from an investigation into the feedback between convective storms and their new surroundings, using output from a three-dimensional anelastic cloud-scale model. Convective feedback budgets for heat, moisture and horizontal momentum are diagnosed from horizontally Reynolds-averaged governing equations, analogous to the theory of Anthes. There is limited horizontal scale separation between the active convection area and the averaging area, which at 30 km on a side is comparable to one grid cell of a typical mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.The simulation is run with an idealized midlatitude severe thunderstorm sounding. The resulting storm displays several supercell features. These include a vigorous erect large-diameter updraft that splits at lower levels, a vaulted weak echo region in the lower part of the main (right flank) updraft core, and a midlevel mesovortex couplet with cyclonic vorticity in the main updraft.The vertical profiles of the various budget terms show several findings of potential relevance to cumulus parameterization. The vertical eddy transport (flux divergence) is highly important to each budget; it significantly raises the height of the maximum apparent heat source and lowers the height of the maximum apparent moisture sink, and acts to reduce the net tropospheric vertical wind shear. At the same time, the horizontal eddy momentum transport and the mean horizontal pressure gradient force both act strongly to sharpen the tropopause-level jet, so that the net shear is little changed. The horizontal eddy transport is much less important to the heat budget, and remains negligible for moisture. Mean storage contributes significantly to the apparent source for each budget under consideration. Other terms derived by Anthes but ignored in existing cumulus parameterizations (the resultant of eddy storage, transport of mean fields by the eddy wind, and transport of eddy fields by the mean wind) become

  20. General theory for multiple input-output perturbations in complex molecular systems. 1. Linear QSPR electronegativity models in physical, organic, and medicinal chemistry. (United States)

    González-Díaz, Humberto; Arrasate, Sonia; Gómez-SanJuan, Asier; Sotomayor, Nuria; Lete, Esther; Besada-Porto, Lina; Ruso, Juan M


    , temperature of addition, or time of reaction). The model also account for changes in chemical structure (connectivity structure and/or chirality paterns in substrate, product, electrophile agent, organolithium, and ligand of the asymmetric catalyst). The second model classifies more than 150,000 cases with 85-100% of Ac, Sn, and Sp. The data contains experimental shifts in up to 18 different pharmacological parameters determined in >3000 assays of ADMET (Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Elimination, and Toxicity) properties and/or interactions between 31723 drugs and 100 targets (metabolizing enzymes, drug transporters, or organisms). The third model classifies more than 260,000 cases of perturbations in the self-aggregation of drugs and surfactants to form micelles with Ac, Sn, and Sp of 94-95%. The model predicts changes in 8 physicochemical and/or thermodynamics output parameters (critic micelle concentration, aggregation number, degree of ionization, surface area, enthalpy, free energy, entropy, heat capacity) of self-aggregation due to perturbations. The perturbations refers to changes in initial temperature, solvent, salt, salt concentration, solvent, and/or structure of the anion or cation of more than 150 different drugs and surfactants. QSPR-Perturbation Theory models may be useful for multi-objective optimization of organic synthesis, physicochemical properties, biological activity, metabolism, and distribution profiles towards the design of new drugs, surfactants, asymmetric ligands for catalysts, and other materials.

  1. Decoupling Analysis of China’s Product Sector Output and Its Embodied Carbon Emissions—An Empirical Study Based on Non-Competitive I-O and Tapio Decoupling Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianbo Hu


    Full Text Available This paper uses the non-competitive I-O model and the Tapio decoupling model to comprehensively analyze the decoupling relationship between the output of the product sector in China and its embodied carbon emissions under trade openness. For this purpose, the Chinese input and output data in 2002, 2005, 2007, 2010, and 2012 are used. This approach is beneficial to identify the direct mechanism for the increased carbon emission in China from a micro perspective and provides a new perspective for the subsequent study about low-carbon economy. The obtained empirical results are as follows: (1 From overall perspective, the decoupling elasticity between the output of the product sector and its embodied carbon emissions decreased. Output and embodied carbon emissions showed a growth link from 2002 to 2005 and a weak decoupling relationship for the rest of the study period. (2 Among the 28 industries in the product sector, the increased growth rate of output in more and more product sectors was no longer accompanied by large CO2 emissions. The number of industries with strong decoupling relationships between output and embodied carbon emissions increased. (3 From the perspective of three industries, the output and embodied carbon emissions in the second and third industries exhibited a growth link only from 2002 to 2005; the three industries presented weak or strong decoupling for the rest of the study period. Through empirical analysis, this paper mainly through the construction of ecological and environmental protection of low carbon agriculture, low carbon cycle industrial system, as well as intensive and efficient service industry to reduce the carbon emissions of China’s product sector.

  2. Central Puget Sound Ecopath/Ecosim model outputs - Developing food web models for ecosystem-based management applications in Puget Sound (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project is developing food web models for ecosystem-based management applications in Puget Sound. It is primarily being done by NMFS FTEs and contractors, in...

  3. Interprovincial transfer of embodied energy between the Jing-Jin-Ji area and other provinces in China: A quantification using interprovincial input-output model. (United States)

    Chen, Weiming; Wu, Sanmang; Lei, Yalin; Li, Shantong


    Commodity trade between regions implies a large amount of energy transfer. As an important economic growth pole of China, the Jing-Jin-Ji area (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) is also one of the areas with the largest energy consumption in China. Moreover, the primary energy consumer goods in this area are fossil fuels, such as coal. This has led to serious air pollution in the area. Therefore, the reduction of energy consumption under the premise of maintaining sustained economic growth is an important task of the Jing-Jin-Ji area. In this study, an interprovincial input-output model was applied to quantitatively estimate the embodied energy transfer between Jing-Jin-Ji area and other provinces in China. The results indicated that the Metal and nonmetal mineral processing industry and the Electrical, gas and water industry in the Jing-Jin-Ji area exported a large amount of embodied energy to the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. However, the embodied energy export of the Jing-Jin-Ji area mainly exported by Hebei province. Beijing and Tianjin even have some net import of embodied energy. The embodied energy transfer between Tianjin, Hebei and other provinces was mainly driven by investment, while the main media of embodied energy transfer between Beijing and other provinces was consumption. Therefore, we suggest that the Jing-Jin-Ji area should further increase the degree of dependence on other provinces' energy-intensive products and reduce the export of energy-intensive products. In addition, there should be difference in the energy and industrial policies among Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and the problems of high energy consumption and high proportion of heavy industry in Hebei should be first resolved. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Transfers of embodied PM2.5emissions from and to the North China region based on a multiregional input-output model. (United States)

    Yang, Xue; Zhang, Wenzhong; Fan, Jie; Yu, Jianhui; Zhao, Hongyan


    Atmospheric PM 2.5 pollution has become a global issue, and is increasingly being associated with social unrest. As a resource reliant local economy and heavy industry cluster, the North China region has become China's greatest emitter, and the source of much pollution spillover to outside regions. To address this issue, the current study investigates the transfers of embodied PM 2.5 emissions to and from the North China region (which is taken to include Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi, and is referred to here as HHSS). The study uses a top-down pollutant emission inventory and environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (EE-MRIO) model. The results indicate that the HHSS area exported a total of 660 Gg of embodied PM 2.5 to other domestic provinces, mainly producing outflows to China's central coastal area (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai) and the Beijing-Tianjin region. HHSS also imported 224 Gg of embodied PM 2.5 from other domestic regions, primarily from Inner Mongolia and the northeast. Furthermore, the transfer of embodied emissions often occurred between geographically adjacent areas to save costs; Beijing and Tianjin mainly transferred embodied pollution to Hebei and Shanxi, whilst Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang tended to import embodied air pollutants from Shandong and Henan. At the sectoral level, the melting and pressing of metals, the production of non-metallic products, and electric and heat power production were the three dominant economic sectors for PM 2.5 emissions, together accounting for 81% of total discharges. Capital formation played a key role in outflows (75%) in all sectors. Moreover, the virtual pollutant emissions exported to foreign countries also significantly affected HHSS' discharges significantly, making up 340 Gg. Allocating responsibility for some proportion of HHSS' emissions to the Beijing-Tianjin area and the central coastal provinces may be an effective approach for mitigating releases in HHSS. Copyright

  5. Partitioning of the water budget in the main river basins in High Mountain Asia with GRACE, model output, and other observations. (United States)

    Velicogna, I.; Ciraci, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Lammers, R. B.


    Access to freshwater is important as world populations grow, especially in High Mountain Asia, where glaciers are a significant component of the freshwater resources, particularly in summer. Glaciers are sensitive to climate perturbations and affected by climate change. Our understanding of the contribution of glacier runoff to specific watersheds, and projections of glacier runoff in a warming climate, are critical to inform decisions, management and policy development. Here, we quantify changes in glacier mass balance in HMA using GRACE data and determine their contribution to river basin hydrology. We use GRACE data to estimate the HMA glacier mass mas balance and compare the results with changes in total water storage (TWS) for the major watersheds in the HMA regions. We designed ad-hoc mascon configurations to calculate the upstream glacier change in mass balance and contribution to major river basins water supply, determined appropriate corrections and uncertainties for the signal and evaluated the results via comparison with the Water Balance Model (WBM) output and other data (re-analysis data and satellite-derived precipitation and evapotranspiration). Most of the glacier loss is from the Himalaya region (Himalaya, Hengduan Shan S and E Tibet), whereas the western sectors (E and W Tien Shan; and Hindu Kush, Karakoram, W Kunlun, Pamir, Hissar Alay) experienced smaller losses but with larger interannual variability driven by changes in the westerly-driven winter precipitation. For the Indus basin, to evaluate the glacier contribution to the total water budget, we examine the contribution of the upper basin to the lower basin TWS change. Over the Upper Indus basin, we find that the seasonal decline in total water storage between May and September averages 88 Gt during 2002-2012. TRMM cumulative precipitation amounts to 119 Gt, leaving a runoff and evapotranspiration component of 207 Gt. This estimate compares well with an estimate for the WBM modeled runoff of

  6. Advantages of Using Microwave Satellite Soil Moisture over Gridded Precipitation Products and Land Surface Model Output in Assessing Regional Vegetation Water Availability and Growth Dynamics for a Lateral Inflow Receiving Landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, T.; McVicar, T.R.; Wang, G.J.; Chen, X.; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Liu, Y.; Shen, H.; Zhang, F.; Dolman, A.J.


    To improve the understanding of water-vegetation relationships, direct comparative studies assessing the utility of satellite remotely sensed soil moisture, gridded precipitation products, and land surface model output are needed. A case study was investigated for a water-limited, lateral inflow

  7. Documentation of the dynamic parameter, water-use, stream and lake flow routing, and two summary output modules and updates to surface-depression storage simulation and initial conditions specification options with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) (United States)

    Regan, R. Steve; LaFontaine, Jacob H.


    This report documents seven enhancements to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic simulation code: two time-series input options, two new output options, and three updates of existing capabilities. The enhancements are (1) new dynamic parameter module, (2) new water-use module, (3) new Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) summary output module, (4) new basin variables summary output module, (5) new stream and lake flow routing module, (6) update to surface-depression storage and flow simulation, and (7) update to the initial-conditions specification. This report relies heavily upon U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 6, chapter B7, which documents PRMS version 4 (PRMS-IV). A brief description of PRMS is included in this report.

  8. Teacher Talk and Language Output


    Haiyan Wang


    As an important input and teaching media in foreign language teaching classes, teacher talk (TT) has a great effect on language output. This paper explores the problems related to teacher talk (TT) and language output in practical ELT (English Language Teaching) classroom and presents some suggestions for solving the problems which affect learner' effective language output.

  9. Lack of cytotoxicity by Trustwater Ecasol™ used to maintain good quality dental unit waterline output water in keratinocyte monolayer and reconstituted human oral epithelial tissue models.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Boyle, M A


    We previously showed that residual treatment of dental chair unit (DCU) supply water using the electrochemically-activated solution Trustwater Ecasol™ (2.5 ppm) provided an effective long-term solution to the problem of dental unit waterline (DUWL) biofilm resulting in DUWL output water quality consistently superior to potable water.

  10. Total environmental impacts of biofuels from corn stover using a hybrid life cycle assessment model combining process life cycle assessment and economic input-output life cycle assessment. (United States)

    Liu, Changqi; Huang, Yaji; Wang, Xinye; Tai, Yang; Liu, Lingqin; Liu, Hao


    Studies on the environmental analysis of biofuels by fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (BFPH) have so far focused only on the environmental impacts from direct emissions and have included few indirect emissions. The influence of ignoring some indirect emissions on the environmental performance of BFPH has not been well investigated and hence is not really understood. In addition, in order to avoid shifting environmental problems from one medium to another, a comprehensive assessment of environmental impacts caused by the processes must quantify the environmental emissions to all media (air, water, and land) in relation to each life cycle stage. A well-to-wheels assessment of the total environmental impacts resulting from direct emissions and indirect emissions of a BFPH system with corn stover is conducted using a hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) model combining the economic input-output LCA and the process LCA. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) has been used to estimate the environmental impacts in terms of acidification, eutrophication, global climate change, ozone depletion, human health criteria, photochemical smog formation, ecotoxicity, human health cancer, and human health noncancer caused by 1 MJ biofuel production. Taking account of all the indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the net GHG emissions (81.8 g CO 2 eq/MJ) of the biofuels are still less than those of petroleum-based fuels (94 g CO 2 eq/MJ). Maize production and pyrolysis and hydroprocessing make major contributions to all impact categories except the human health criteria. All impact categories resulting from indirect emissions except eutrophication and smog air make more than 24% contribution to the total environmental impacts. Therefore, the indirect emissions are important and cannot be ignored. Sensitivity analysis has shown that corn stover yield and bio-oil yield affect the total environmental impacts of the biofuels

  11. Cardiac output during exercise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siebenmann, C; Rasmussen, P.; Sørensen, H.


    Several techniques assessing cardiac output (Q) during exercise are available. The extent to which the measurements obtained from each respective technique compares to one another, however, is unclear. We quantified Q simultaneously using four methods: the Fick method with blood obtained from...... the right atrium (Q(Fick-M)), Innocor (inert gas rebreathing; Q(Inn)), Physioflow (impedance cardiography; Q(Phys)), and Nexfin (pulse contour analysis; Q(Pulse)) in 12 male subjects during incremental cycling exercise to exhaustion in normoxia and hypoxia (FiO2  = 12%). While all four methods reported...... a progressive increase in Q with exercise intensity, the slopes of the Q/oxygen uptake (VO2) relationship differed by up to 50% between methods in both normoxia [4.9 ± 0.3, 3.9 ± 0.2, 6.0 ± 0.4, 4.8 ± 0.2 L/min per L/min (mean ± SE) for Q(Fick-M), Q(Inn), QP hys and Q(Pulse), respectively; P = 0...

  12. Microphysics in West African squall line with an Xband polarimetric radar and an Hydrometeor Identification Scheme: comparison with in situ measurements (United States)

    Cazenave, F.; Gosset, M.; Kacou, M.; Alcoba, M.; Fontaine, E.


    A better knowledge on the microphysics of tropical continental convective systems is needed in order to improve quantitative precipitation measurements in the Tropics. Satellite passive microwave estimation of tropical rainfall could be improved with a better parameterization of the icy hydrometeors in the Bayesian RAIN estimation algorithm (BRAIN, Viltard et al., 2006) used over continental tropics. To address this important issue specific campaigns that combine aircraft based in situ microphysics probing and polarimetric radar have been organized as part of the CNES/ISRO satellite mission Megha-Tropiques. The first microphysics validation campaign was set up in Niamey in August 2010. The field deployment included the AMMA-CATH 56 rain gages, 3 disdrometers, 2 meteorological radars including the C-band MIT and the Xport X-band dual polarisation radar, and a 4 weeks campaign with the instrumented Falcon 20 from the french operator for environmental research aircrafts equipped with several microphysics probes and the 94Ghz cloud radar RASTA. The objective is to combine scales and methods to converge towards a parameterization of the ice size, mass and density laws inside continental Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). The Particle IDentification algorithm (PID) developed by the Colorado State University (CSU) adapted to the band X by B. Dolan (Dolan et al. 2009) is used to classify seven kind of particles: drizzle or light rain, moderate to heavy rain, wet and dry graupel, wet and dry aggregates and ice crystals. On a limited number of systems, the airborne microphysics sensors provide a detailed in situ reference on the Particle Size Distribution (PSD) that can be compared with the radar PID in the radar pixels located along the flight trajectory. An original approach has been developed for the radar - in situ comparison: it consists in simulating synthetic radar variables from the microphysics probe information and compare the 2 data sets in a common 'radar space

  13. Cardiac output monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathews Lailu


    Full Text Available Minimally invasive and non-invasive methods of estimation of cardiac output (CO were developed to overcome the limitations of invasive nature of pulmonary artery catheterization (PAC and direct Fick method used for the measurement of stroke volume (SV. The important minimally invasive techniques available are: oesophageal Doppler monitoring (ODM, the derivative Fick method (using partial carbon dioxide (CO 2 breathing, transpulmonary thermodilution, lithium indicator dilution, pulse contour and pulse power analysis. Impedance cardiography is probably the only non-invasive technique in true sense. It provides information about haemodynamic status without the risk, cost and skill associated with the other invasive or minimally invasive techniques. It is important to understand what is really being measured and what assumptions and calculations have been incorporated with respect to a monitoring device. Understanding the basic principles of the above techniques as well as their advantages and limitations may be useful. In addition, the clinical validation of new techniques is necessary to convince that these new tools provide reliable measurements. In this review the physics behind the working of ODM, partial CO 2 breathing, transpulmonary thermodilution and lithium dilution techniques are dealt with. The physical and the physiological aspects underlying the pulse contour and pulse power analyses, various pulse contour techniques, their development, advantages and limitations are also covered. The principle of thoracic bioimpedance along with computation of CO from changes in thoracic impedance is explained. The purpose of the review is to help us minimize the dogmatic nature of practice favouring one technique or the other.

  14. H∞ output-feedback fuzzy proportional-integral control of fully delayed input/output systems. (United States)

    Chiu, Chian-Song; Chiang, Tung-Sheng


    This paper presents the output-feedback fuzzy proportional-integral (PI) controller design for uncertain nonlinear systems with both fully delayed input and output. Based on the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model representation, the output-feedback PI control is realized via parallel distributed PI compensation and novel LMI gain design. Although the T-S fuzzy PI controller is simple, asymptotic output regulation is assured to overcome the effect of uncertainty, state delay, and full input/output delays. When considering disturbance and measurement noise, the control performance is achieved by robust gain design. Furthermore, state observers and bilinear matrix inequality conditions are removed in this paper. Finally, time-delay Chua׳s circuit system and a continuous-time stirred tank reactor are taken as applications to show the expected performance. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Serial Input Output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waite, Anthony; /SLAC


    Serial Input/Output (SIO) is designed to be a long term storage format of a sophistication somewhere between simple ASCII files and the techniques provided by inter alia Objectivity and Root. The former tend to be low density, information lossy (floating point numbers lose precision) and inflexible. The latter require abstract descriptions of the data with all that that implies in terms of extra complexity. The basic building blocks of SIO are streams, records and blocks. Streams provide the connections between the program and files. The user can define an arbitrary list of streams as required. A given stream must be opened for either reading or writing. SIO does not support read/write streams. If a stream is closed during the execution of a program, it can be reopened in either read or write mode to the same or a different file. Records represent a coherent grouping of data. Records consist of a collection of blocks (see next paragraph). The user can define a variety of records (headers, events, error logs, etc.) and request that any of them be written to any stream. When SIO reads a file, it first decodes the record name and if that record has been defined and unpacking has been requested for it, SIO proceeds to unpack the blocks. Blocks are user provided objects which do the real work of reading/writing the data. The user is responsible for writing the code for these blocks and for identifying these blocks to SIO at run time. To write a collection of blocks, the user must first connect them to a record. The record can then be written to a stream as described above. Note that the same block can be connected to many different records. When SIO reads a record, it scans through the blocks written and calls the corresponding block object (if it has been defined) to decode it. Undefined blocks are skipped. Each of these categories (streams, records and blocks) have some characteristics in common. Every stream, record and block has a name with the condition that each

  16. Statistics-based optimization of the polarimetric radar hydrometeor classification algorithm and its application for a squall line in South China (United States)

    Wu, Chong; Liu, Liping; Wei, Ming; Xi, Baozhu; Yu, Minghui


    A modified hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA) is developed in this study for Chinese polarimetric radars. This algorithm is based on the U.S. operational HCA. Meanwhile, the methodology of statistics-based optimization is proposed including calibration checking, datasets selection, membership functions modification, computation thresholds modification, and effect verification. Zhuhai radar, the first operational polarimetric radar in South China, applies these procedures. The systematic bias of calibration is corrected, the reliability of radar measurements deteriorates when the signal-to-noise ratio is low, and correlation coefficient within the melting layer is usually lower than that of the U.S. WSR-88D radar. Through modification based on statistical analysis of polarimetric variables, the localized HCA especially for Zhuhai is obtained, and it performs well over a one-month test through comparison with sounding and surface observations. The algorithm is then utilized for analysis of a squall line process on 11 May 2014 and is found to provide reasonable details with respect to horizontal and vertical structures, and the HCA results—especially in the mixed rain-hail region—can reflect the life cycle of the squall line. In addition, the kinematic and microphysical processes of cloud evolution and the differences between radar-detected hail and surface observations are also analyzed. The results of this study provide evidence for the improvement of this HCA developed specifically for China.

  17. Inverter communications using output signal (United States)

    Chapman, Patrick L.


    Technologies for communicating information from an inverter configured for the conversion of direct current (DC) power generated from an alternative source to alternating current (AC) power are disclosed. The technologies include determining information to be transmitted from the inverter over a power line cable connected to the inverter and controlling the operation of an output converter of the inverter as a function of the information to be transmitted to cause the output converter to generate an output waveform having the information modulated thereon.

  18. Unstable resonator with multiple outputs (United States)

    Konopnicki, M. J.; Smithers, M. E.


    Two or more unstable optical resonators can be coupled together by sharing optical elements. The result is then a single compound resonator with multiple outputs. For identical coupled cavities, the transverse structure of the outputs would be identical. In general, there will be misalignments and other aberrations that will vary from cavity to cavity. The cumulative effects of such aberrations are treated using both analytical and numerical approaches. It is shown that the average output of a multioutput resonator is the same as the output of a single uncoupled resonator with aberrations equal to the average of those contained in the multioutput resonator.

  19. An Input Shaping Method Based on System Output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiqiang ZHU


    Full Text Available In this paper, an input shaping method is proposed. This method only requires the system output, and doesn't need the system model information. In the application of this method, the basic form of an input shaping filter is first decided, then according to the form of the filter, the system output is decomposed into several weighted signals. Based on the decomposition, the least square method is applied to minimize the difference between the actual system output and the reference system output. In this way, the vibration in the system output is eliminated and the desired bandwidth of the whole system can be fulfilled.

  20. Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Posch, Olaf

    This paper studies the effects of taxation on output volatility in OECD countries to shed light on the sources of observed heterogeneity over time and across countries. To this end, we derive tax effects on macro aggregates in a stochastic neoclassical model. As a result, taxes are shown to affect...

  1. Measuring the Technical Efficiency of Farms Producing Environmental Output: Parametric and Semiparametric Estimation of Multi-output Stochastic Ray Production Frontiers


    Tomasz Gerard Czekaj


    This paper investigates the technical efficiency of Polish dairy farms producing environmental output using the stochastic ray function to model multi-output – multi-input technology. Two general models are considered. One which neglects the provision of environmental output and one which accounts for such output. Three different proxies of environmental output are discussed: the ratio of permanent grassland (including rough grazing) to total agricultural area, the total area of permanent gra...

  2. Effects of maternal exposure to aflatoxin B1 during pregnancy on fertility output of dams and developmental, behavioral and reproductive consequences in female offspring using a rat model. (United States)

    Supriya, Ch; Akhila, B; Pratap Reddy, K; Girish, B P; Sreenivasula Reddy, P


    A suboptimal in utero environment can have detrimental effects on the pregnancy and long-term adverse "programing" effects on the offspring. Aflatoxin B1 is one of the potent reproductive toxicants and currently detected in both milk and tissues. This article focuses on the effects of prenatal exposure to graded doses of aflatoxin B1 on the pregnancy outcomes of dams and postnatal developments of the female offspring, since these issues have ethological relevance in both animals and humans. Pregnant Wistar rats were injected intramuscularly with vehicle or aflatoxin B1 (10, 20, 50 or 100 μg/kg body weight/day) on days 12-19 of gestation. At parturition, newborns were observed for clinical signs of toxicity and survival. The female offspring were examined through a battery of tests in order to evaluate their developmental, behavioral and reproductive end points. All animals were born alive. The litter size of the aflatoxin B1 treated rats was comparable to the controls. However, the birth weight of the pups in the experimental group was significantly lower when compared to controls. Significant and persistent lags in cliff avoidance, negative geotaxis, surface rightening activity and ascending wire mesh, with a delay in elapsed time for vaginal opening were detected in the female progeny exposed to aflatoxin B1 during embryonic development. The locomotor activity and exploratory behavior in experimental females were significantly decreased than that of controls. Embryonic exposure to aflatoxin B1 also resulted in prolonged stress response, irregular estrus and suppressed fertility output in the progeny at their adulthood. These results indicate that in utero exposure to aflatoxin B1 severely compromised postnatal development of neonatal rats and caused irregular estrus that was accompanied by suppressed fertility output.

  3. Global output gap and domestic inflation in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Chengsi


    Full Text Available This paper evaluates whether globalization has led to greater sensitivity of Chinese consumer price inflation to the global output gap. The empirical analysis uses quarterly data over the period 1995-2012. The global output gap is measured by weighted output gap of China’s top eighteen trading partners. Estimating Phillips curve models and vector autoregressive models, we find that global capacity constraints have both explanatory and predictive power for domestic consumer’s price inflation in China. Therefore, the central bank of China should react to developments in global output gaps.

  4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) model output from 1997-01-01 to 2007-09-05 (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS) was developed jointly by the Ocean Modeling Branch of the National Weather Service's Environmental Modeling Center, the...

  5. Robot manipulator identification based on adaptive multiple-input and multiple-output neural model optimized by advanced differential evolution algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Ngoc Son


    Full Text Available This article proposes a novel advanced differential evolution method which combines the differential evolution with the modified back-propagation algorithm. This new proposed approach is applied to train an adaptive enhanced neural model for approximating the inverse model of the industrial robot arm. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed modeling procedure using the new identification approach obtains better convergence and more precision than the traditional back-propagation method or the lonely differential evolution approach. Furthermore, the inverse model of the industrial robot arm using the adaptive enhanced neural model performs outstanding results.

  6. Output

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mehlsen, Camilla


    Hvad får vi egentlig ud af internationale komparative undersøgelser som PISA, PIRLS og TIMSS? Hvordan påvirker de dansk uddannelsespolitik? Asterisk har talt med tre forskere med ekspertise på området.......Hvad får vi egentlig ud af internationale komparative undersøgelser som PISA, PIRLS og TIMSS? Hvordan påvirker de dansk uddannelsespolitik? Asterisk har talt med tre forskere med ekspertise på området....

  7. A passive and active microwave-vector radiative transfer (PAM-VRT) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jun; Min, Qilong


    A passive and active microwave vector radiative transfer (PAM-VRT) package has been developed. This fast and accurate forward microwave model, with flexible and versatile input and output components, self-consistently and realistically simulates measurements/radiation of passive and active microwave sensors. The core PAM-VRT, microwave radiative transfer model, consists of five modules: gas absorption (two line-by-line databases and four fast models); hydrometeor property of water droplets and ice (spherical and nonspherical) particles; surface emissivity (from Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM)); vector radiative transfer of successive order of scattering (VSOS); and passive and active microwave simulation. The PAM-VRT package has been validated against other existing models, demonstrating good accuracy. The PAM-VRT not only can be used to simulate or assimilate measurements of existing microwave sensors, but also can be used to simulate observation results at some new microwave sensors. - Highlights: • A novel microwave vector radiative transfer model is developed. • It can simulate passive and active microwave radiative transfer simultaneously. • It can be applied to simulate measurements for different types of viewing geometry. • The accuracy of this model has been validated against other existing models

  8. Selective loss of bi-directional synaptic plasticity in the direct and indirect striatal output pathways accompanies generation of parkinsonism and l-DOPA induced dyskinesia in mouse models. (United States)

    Thiele, Sherri L; Chen, Betty; Lo, Charlotte; Gertler, Tracey S; Warre, Ruth; Surmeier, James D; Brotchie, Jonathan M; Nash, Joanne E


    Parkinsonian symptoms arise due to over-activity of the indirect striatal output pathway, and under-activity of the direct striatal output pathway. l-DOPA-induced dyskinesia (LID) is caused when the opposite circuitry problems are established, with the indirect pathway becoming underactive, and the direct pathway becoming over-active. Here, we define synaptic plasticity abnormalities in these pathways associated with parkinsonism, symptomatic benefits of l-DOPA, and LID. We applied spike-timing dependent plasticity protocols to cortico-striatal synapses in slices from 6-OHDA-lesioned mouse models of parkinsonism and LID, generated in BAC transgenic mice with eGFP targeting the direct or indirect output pathways, with and without l-DOPA present. In naïve mice, bidirectional synaptic plasticity, i.e. LTP and LTD, was induced, resulting in an EPSP amplitude change of approximately 50% in each direction in both striatal output pathways, as shown previously. In parkinsonism and dyskinesia, both pathways exhibited unidirectional plasticity, irrespective of stimulation paradigm. In parkinsonian animals, the indirect pathway only exhibited LTP (LTP protocol: 143.5±14.6%; LTD protocol 177.7±22.3% of baseline), whereas the direct pathway only showed LTD (LTP protocol: 74.3±4.0% and LTD protocol: 63.3±8.7%). A symptomatic dose of l-DOPA restored bidirectional plasticity on both pathways to levels comparable to naïve animals (Indirect pathway: LTP protocol: 124.4±22.0% and LTD protocol: 52.1±18.5% of baseline. Direct pathway: LTP protocol: 140.7±7.3% and LTD protocol: 58.4±6.0% of baseline). In dyskinesia, in the presence of l-DOPA, the indirect pathway exhibited only LTD (LTP protocol: 68.9±21.3% and LTD protocol 52.0±14.2% of baseline), whereas in the direct pathway, only LTP could be induced (LTP protocol: 156.6±13.2% and LTD protocol 166.7±15.8% of baseline). We conclude that normal motor control requires bidirectional plasticity of both striatal outputs

  9. Videodensitometric Methods for Cardiac Output Measurements (United States)

    Mischi, Massimo; Kalker, Ton; Korsten, Erik


    Cardiac output is often measured by indicator dilution techniques, usually based on dye or cold saline injections. Developments of more stable ultrasound contrast agents (UCA) are leading to new noninvasive indicator dilution methods. However, several problems concerning the interpretation of dilution curves as detected by ultrasound transducers have arisen. This paper presents a method for blood flow measurements based on UCA dilution. Dilution curves are determined by real-time densitometric analysis of the video output of an ultrasound scanner and are automatically fitted by the Local Density Random Walk model. A new fitting algorithm based on multiple linear regression is developed. Calibration, that is, the relation between videodensity and UCA concentration, is modelled by in vitro experimentation. The flow measurement system is validated by in vitro perfusion of SonoVue contrast agent. The results show an accurate dilution curve fit and flow estimation with determination coefficient larger than 0.95 and 0.99, respectively.

  10. Videodensitometric Methods for Cardiac Output Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Mischi


    Full Text Available Cardiac output is often measured by indicator dilution techniques, usually based on dye or cold saline injections. Developments of more stable ultrasound contrast agents (UCA are leading to new noninvasive indicator dilution methods. However, several problems concerning the interpretation of dilution curves as detected by ultrasound transducers have arisen. This paper presents a method for blood flow measurements based on UCA dilution. Dilution curves are determined by real-time densitometric analysis of the video output of an ultrasound scanner and are automatically fitted by the Local Density Random Walk model. A new fitting algorithm based on multiple linear regression is developed. Calibration, that is, the relation between videodensity and UCA concentration, is modelled by in vitro experimentation. The flow measurement system is validated by in vitro perfusion of SonoVue contrast agent. The results show an accurate dilution curve fit and flow estimation with determination coefficient larger than 0.95 and 0.99, respectively.

  11. Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA (United States)

    Bhar, Ramprasad; Mallik, Girijasankar


    Employing a multivariate EGARCH-M model, this study investigates the effects of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the United States. Our results show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation and a negative and significant effect on the output growth. However, output uncertainty has no significant effect on output growth or inflation. The oil price also has a positive and significant effect on inflation. These findings are robust and have been corroborated by use of an impulse response function. These results have important implications for inflation-targeting monetary policy, and the aim of stabilization policy in general.

  12. Model output for deep-sea coral habitat suitability in the U.S. North and Mid-Atlantic from 2013 (NCEI Accession 0145923) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset was created for potential use as an environmental predictor in spatial predictive models of deep-sea coral habitat suitability. Deep-sea corals are of...

  13. A Window of Opportunity for Aceh, Indonesia Post-Tsunami: Historic Continuity, Current Points of Interest, and a Pattern. Output of the Cultural Simulation Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library


    ...) for the Situation in Aceh, Indonesia. The CSM uses news filtering, a knowledge acquisition and contextual memory method, which we refer to as a Cultural Construct, as well as interaction by modelers, subject matter experts (SMEs...

  14. Simulation of Distributed PV Power Output in Oahu Hawaii

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lave, Matthew Samuel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)


    Distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation in Oahu has grown rapidly since 2008. For applications such as determining the value of energy storage, it is important to have PV power output timeseries. Since these timeseries of not typically measured, here we produce simulated distributed PV power output for Oahu. Simulated power output is based on (a) satellite-derived solar irradiance, (b) PV permit data by neighborhood, and (c) population data by census block. Permit and population data was used to model locations of distributed PV, and irradiance data was then used to simulate power output. PV power output simulations are presented by sub-neighborhood polygons, neighborhoods, and for the whole island of Oahu. Summary plots of annual PV energy and a sample week timeseries of power output are shown, and a the files containing the entire timeseries are described.

  15. Partial Least Squares with Structured Output for Modelling the Metabolomics Data Obtained from Complex Experimental Designs: A Study into the Y-Block Coding. (United States)

    Xu, Yun; Muhamadali, Howbeer; Sayqal, Ali; Dixon, Neil; Goodacre, Royston


    Partial least squares (PLS) is one of the most commonly used supervised modelling approaches for analysing multivariate metabolomics data. PLS is typically employed as either a regression model (PLS-R) or a classification model (PLS-DA). However, in metabolomics studies it is common to investigate multiple, potentially interacting, factors simultaneously following a specific experimental design. Such data often cannot be considered as a "pure" regression or a classification problem. Nevertheless, these data have often still been treated as a regression or classification problem and this could lead to ambiguous results. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of designing a hybrid target matrix Y that better reflects the experimental design than simple regression or binary class membership coding commonly used in PLS modelling. The new design of Y coding was based on the same principle used by structural modelling in machine learning techniques. Two real metabolomics datasets were used as examples to illustrate how the new Y coding can improve the interpretability of the PLS model compared to classic regression/classification coding.

  16. Partial Least Squares with Structured Output for Modelling the Metabolomics Data Obtained from Complex Experimental Designs: A Study into the Y-Block Coding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Xu


    Full Text Available Partial least squares (PLS is one of the most commonly used supervised modelling approaches for analysing multivariate metabolomics data. PLS is typically employed as either a regression model (PLS-R or a classification model (PLS-DA. However, in metabolomics studies it is common to investigate multiple, potentially interacting, factors simultaneously following a specific experimental design. Such data often cannot be considered as a “pure” regression or a classification problem. Nevertheless, these data have often still been treated as a regression or classification problem and this could lead to ambiguous results. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of designing a hybrid target matrix Y that better reflects the experimental design than simple regression or binary class membership coding commonly used in PLS modelling. The new design of Y coding was based on the same principle used by structural modelling in machine learning techniques. Two real metabolomics datasets were used as examples to illustrate how the new Y coding can improve the interpretability of the PLS model compared to classic regression/classification coding.

  17. Input-output interactions and optimal monetary policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petrella, Ivan; Santoro, Emiliano


    This paper deals with the implications of factor demand linkages for monetary policy design in a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Part of the output of each sector serves as a production input in both sectors, in accordance with a realistic input–output structure. Strategic complemen......This paper deals with the implications of factor demand linkages for monetary policy design in a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Part of the output of each sector serves as a production input in both sectors, in accordance with a realistic input–output structure. Strategic...... in this context is of key importance to explore the welfare properties of the model economy. A flexible inflation targeting regime is close to optimal only if the central bank balances inflation and value added variability. Otherwise, targeting gross output variability entails a substantial increase in the loss...

  18. Energy use for building construction. Preliminary progress report for period March 1, 1976--May 15, 1976. [Energy intensities of various sectors and overall industry from Energy Input/Output Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hannon, B M; Stein, R G; Segal, B; Serber, D


    The building construction industry, as broken down by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, was integrated into the Energy Input/Output Model developed at the Center for Advanced Computation, University of Illinois. The resulting expanded model was used to determine energy intensities of various (49) building construction (new and maintenance) sectors and of the overall building construction industry, for year 1967. The latter figure was computed at about 70,000 Btu/$, i.e., the construction industry on the average required about 70,000 Btu of direct and indirect energy per dollar of output produced. The most energy intensive sector was New Construction of Petroleum Pipelines (about 150,000 Btu/$), while the least intensive was Maintenance Construction for Electric Utilities (about 25,000 Btu/$). Also developed were total energy (direct and indirect) requirements to final demand for the building construction industry, for 1967. The overall industry required about 6000 trillion Btu, or about nine percent of the total U.S. energy requirement. New Highway Construction required the most energy to final demand (about 1000 trillion Btu, or 16 percent of the total construction industry requirement), while Maintenance Construction Residential required the least (about 9 trillion Btu, or 0.1 percent of the total industry requirement.

  19. Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data (United States)

    Hasan, M. Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Akanda, Ali Shafqat


    In the era of global warning, the insight of future climate and their changing extremes is critical for climate-vulnerable regions of the world. In this study, we have conducted a robust assessment of Regional Climate Model (RCM) results in a monsoon-dominated region within the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the latest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. We have applied an advanced bias correction approach to five RCM simulations in order to project future climate and associated extremes over Bangladesh, a critically climate-vulnerable country with a complex monsoon system. We have also generated a new gridded product that performed better in capturing observed climatic extremes than existing products. The bias-correction approach provided a notable improvement in capturing the precipitation extremes as well as mean climate. The majority of projected multi-model RCMs indicate an increase of rainfall, where one model shows contrary results during the 2080s (2071-2100) era. The multi-model mean shows that nighttime temperatures will increase much faster than daytime temperatures and the average annual temperatures are projected to be as hot as present-day summer temperatures. The expected increase of precipitation and temperature over the hilly areas are higher compared to other parts of the country. Overall, the projected extremities of future rainfall are more variable than temperature. According to the majority of the models, the number of the heavy rainy days will increase in future years. The severity of summer-day temperatures will be alarming, especially over hilly regions, where winters are relatively warm. The projected rise of both precipitation and temperature extremes over the intense rainfall-prone northeastern region of the country creates a possibility of devastating flash floods with harmful impacts on agriculture. Moreover, the effect of bias-correction, as presented in probable changes of both bias

  20. Estimation of groundwater recharge via percolation outputs from a rainfall/runoff model for the Verlorenvlei estuarine system, west coast, South Africa (United States)

    Watson, Andrew; Miller, Jodie; Fleischer, Melanie; de Clercq, Willem


    Wetlands are conservation priorities worldwide, due to their high biodiversity and productivity, but are under threat from agricultural and climate change stresses. To improve the water management practices and resource allocation in these complex systems, a modelling approach has been developed to estimate potential recharge for data poor catchments using rainfall data and basic assumptions regarding soil and aquifer properties. The Verlorenvlei estuarine lake (RAMSAR #525) on the west coast of South Africa is a data poor catchment where rainfall records have been supplemented with farmer's rainfall records. The catchment has multiple competing users. To determine the ecological reserve for the wetlands, the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge had to be well constrained using the J2000 rainfall/runoff model. The majority of rainfall occurs in the mountains (±650 mm/yr) and considerably less in the valley (±280 mm/yr). Percolation was modelled as ∼3.6% of rainfall in the driest parts of the catchment, ∼10% of rainfall in the moderately wet parts of the catchment and ∼8.4% but up to 28.9% of rainfall in the wettest parts of the catchment. The model results are representative of rainfall and water level measurements in the catchment, and compare well with water table fluctuation technique, although estimates are dissimilar to previous estimates within the catchment. This is most likely due to the daily timestep nature of the model, in comparison to other yearly average methods. These results go some way in understanding the fact that although most semi-arid catchments have very low yearly recharge estimates, they are still capable of sustaining high biodiversity levels. This demonstrates the importance of incorporating shorter term recharge event modeling for improving recharge estimates.

  1. Temperate climate - Innovative outputs nexus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coccia, M.


    Technological change is a vital human activity that interacts with geographic factors and environment. The purpose of the study here is to analyse the relationship between geo-climate zones of the globe and technological outputs in order to detect favourable areas that spur higher technological

  2. Remote input/output station

    CERN Multimedia


    A general view of the remote input/output station installed in building 112 (ISR) and used for submitting jobs to the CDC 6500 and 6600. The card reader on the left and the line printer on the right are operated by programmers on a self-service basis.

  3. Kilder til output-legitimitet

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Morten Jarlbæk


    Diskussioner om legitimitet i den Europæiske Union bygger ofte på det teoretiske skel mellem output-legitimitet og andre former for legitimitet. Dette skyldes ikke mindst, at netop Unionens evne til at levere reale løsninger på reale problemer er en væsentlig – hvis ikke den væsentligste – kilde ...

  4. World Input-Output Network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federica Cerina

    Full Text Available Production systems, traditionally analyzed as almost independent national systems, are increasingly connected on a global scale. Only recently becoming available, the World Input-Output Database (WIOD is one of the first efforts to construct the global multi-regional input-output (GMRIO tables. By viewing the world input-output system as an interdependent network where the nodes are the individual industries in different economies and the edges are the monetary goods flows between industries, we analyze respectively the global, regional, and local network properties of the so-called world input-output network (WION and document its evolution over time. At global level, we find that the industries are highly but asymmetrically connected, which implies that micro shocks can lead to macro fluctuations. At regional level, we find that the world production is still operated nationally or at most regionally as the communities detected are either individual economies or geographically well defined regions. Finally, at local level, for each industry we compare the network-based measures with the traditional methods of backward linkages. We find that the network-based measures such as PageRank centrality and community coreness measure can give valuable insights into identifying the key industries.

  5. Characterizing the effects of cell settling on bioprinter output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pepper, Matthew E; Burg, Timothy C; Burg, Karen J L; Groff, Richard E; Seshadri, Vidya


    The time variation in bioprinter output, i.e. the number of cells per printed drop, was studied over the length of a typical printing experiment. This variation impacts the cell population size of bioprinted samples, which should ideally be consistent. The variation in output was specifically studied in the context of cell settling. The bioprinter studied is based on the thermal inkjet HP26A cartridge; however, the results are relevant to other cell delivery systems that draw fluid from a reservoir. A simple mathematical model suggests that the cell concentration in the bottom of the reservoir should increase linearly over time, up to some maximum, and that the cell output should be proportional to this concentration. Two studies were performed in which D1 murine stem cells and similarly sized polystyrene latex beads were printed. The bead output profiles were consistent with the model. The cell output profiles initially followed the increasing trend predicted by the settling model, but after several minutes the cell output peaked and then decreased. The decrease in cell output was found to be associated with the number of use cycles the cartridge had experienced. The differing results for beads and cells suggest that a biological process, such as adhesion, causes the decrease in cell output. Further work will be required to identify the exact process. (communication)

  6. Source identification of short-lived air pollutants in the Arctic using statistical analysis of measurement data and particle dispersion model output


    D. Hirdman; H. Sodemann; S. Eckhardt; J. F. Burkhart; A. Jefferson; T. Mefford; P. K. Quinn; S. Sharma; J. Ström; A. Stohl


    As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport), this paper studies the sources of equivalent black carbon (EBC), sulphate, light-scattering aerosols and ozone measured at the Arctic stations Zeppelin, Alert, Barrow and Summit during the years 2000–2007. These species are important pollutants and climate forcing agents, and sulphate and EBC are main components of Arctic haze. To d...

  7. Surface temperature dataset for North America obtained by application of optimal interpolation algorithm merging tree-ring chronologies and climate model output (United States)

    Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Nie, Suping; Zhao, Zongci; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua


    A new dataset of surface temperature over North America has been constructed by merging climate model results and empirical tree-ring data through the application of an optimal interpolation algorithm. Errors of both the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) simulation and the tree-ring reconstruction were considered to optimize the combination of the two elements. Variance matching was used to reconstruct the surface temperature series. The model simulation provided the background field, and the error covariance matrix was estimated statistically using samples from the simulation results with a running 31-year window for each grid. Thus, the merging process could continue with a time-varying gain matrix. This merging method (MM) was tested using two types of experiment, and the results indicated that the standard deviation of errors was about 0.4 °C lower than the tree-ring reconstructions and about 0.5 °C lower than the model simulation. Because of internal variabilities and uncertainties in the external forcing data, the simulated decadal warm-cool periods were readjusted by the MM such that the decadal variability was more reliable (e.g., the 1940-1960s cooling). During the two centuries (1601-1800 AD) of the preindustrial period, the MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature, which is in accordance with the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Compared with pure CCSM4 simulations, it was demonstrated that the MM brought a significant improvement to the decadal variability of the gridded temperature via the merging of temperature-sensitive tree-ring records.

  8. Combination of equilibrium models and hybrid life cycle-input–output analysis to predict the environmental impacts of energy policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, Elorri; Rugani, Benedetto; Rege, Sameer; Benetto, Enrico; Drouet, Laurent; Zachary, Daniel S.


    Highlights: • The environmental impacts of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg are assessed. • Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models are used. • Results from coupling of CGE and PE are integrated in hybrid Life Cycle Assessment. • Impacts due to energy related production and imports are likely to grow over time. • Carbon mitigation policies seem to not substantially decrease the impacts’ trend. - Abstract: Nowadays, many countries adopt an active agenda to mitigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions by moving towards less polluting energy generation technologies. The environmental costs, directly or indirectly generated to achieve such a challenging objective, remain however largely underexplored. Until now, research has focused either on pure economic approaches such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models, or on (physical) energy supply scenarios. These latter could be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of various energy saving or cleaner technologies via Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. These modelling efforts have, however, been pursued in isolation, without exploring the possible complementarities and synergies. In this study, we have undertaken a practical combination of these approaches into a common framework: on the one hand, by coupling a CGE with a PE model, and, on the other hand, by linking the outcomes from the coupling with a hybrid input–output−process based life cycle inventory. The methodological framework aimed at assessing the environmental consequences of two energy policy scenarios in Luxembourg between 2010 and 2025. The study highlights the potential of coupling CGE and PE models but also the related methodological difficulties (e.g. small number of available technologies in Luxembourg, intrinsic limitations of the two approaches, etc.). The assessment shows both environmental synergies and trade-offs due to the implementation of

  9. Marine organism concentrations, carbonate chemistry variables, and nutrient concentrations from Atlantis ecosystem model simulation output in the California Current from 2013-01-01 to 2053-12-31 to understand vulnerability of California current food webs and economics to ocean acidification (NCEI Accession 0131198) (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This archival package contains the model output of a study to evaluate likely economic and ecological outcomes of ocean acidification in the California Current....

  10. Global Sensitivity Analysis for multivariate output using Polynomial Chaos Expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Cabrejo, Oscar; Valocchi, Albert


    Many mathematical and computational models used in engineering produce multivariate output that shows some degree of correlation. However, conventional approaches to Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) assume that the output variable is scalar. These approaches are applied on each output variable leading to a large number of sensitivity indices that shows a high degree of redundancy making the interpretation of the results difficult. Two approaches have been proposed for GSA in the case of multivariate output: output decomposition approach [9] and covariance decomposition approach [14] but they are computationally intensive for most practical problems. In this paper, Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is used for an efficient GSA with multivariate output. The results indicate that PCE allows efficient estimation of the covariance matrix and GSA on the coefficients in the approach defined by Campbell et al. [9], and the development of analytical expressions for the multivariate sensitivity indices defined by Gamboa et al. [14]. - Highlights: • PCE increases computational efficiency in 2 approaches of GSA of multivariate output. • Efficient estimation of covariance matrix of output from coefficients of PCE. • Efficient GSA on coefficients of orthogonal decomposition of the output using PCE. • Analytical expressions of multivariate sensitivity indices from coefficients of PCE

  11. Source identification of short-lived air pollutants in the Arctic using statistical analysis of measurement data and particle dispersion model output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Hirdman


    Full Text Available As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport, this paper studies the sources of equivalent black carbon (EBC, sulphate, light-scattering aerosols and ozone measured at the Arctic stations Zeppelin, Alert, Barrow and Summit during the years 2000–2007. These species are important pollutants and climate forcing agents, and sulphate and EBC are main components of Arctic haze. To determine where these substances originate, the measurement data were combined with calculations using FLEXPART, a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The climatology of atmospheric transport from surrounding regions on a twenty-day time scale modelled by FLEXPART shows that the stations Zeppelin, Alert and Barrow are highly sensitive to surface emissions in the Arctic and to emissions in high-latitude Eurasia in winter. Emission sensitivities over southern Asia and southern North America are small throughout the year. The high-altitude station Summit is an order of magnitude less sensitive to surface emissions in the Arctic whereas emissions in the southern parts of the Northern Hemisphere continents are more influential relative to the other stations. Our results show that for EBC and sulphate measured at Zeppelin, Alert and Barrow, northern Eurasia is the dominant source region. For sulphate, Eastern Europe and the metal smelting industry in Norilsk are particularly important. For EBC, boreal forest fires also contribute in summer. No evidence for any substantial contribution to EBC from sources in southern Asia is found. European air masses are associated with low ozone concentrations in winter due to titration by nitric oxides, but are associated with high ozone concentrations in summer due to photochemical ozone formation. There is also a strong influence of ozone depletion events in the Arctic boundary layer on measured ozone concentrations in spring

  12. Output, renewable energy consumption and trade in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane; Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim


    We use panel cointegration techniques to examine the relationship between renewable energy consumption, trade and output in a sample of 11 African countries covering the period 1980–2008. The results from panel error correction model reveal that there is evidence of a bidirectional causality between output and exports and between output and imports in both the short and long-run. However, in the short-run, there is no evidence of causality between output and renewable energy consumption and between trade (exports or imports) and renewable energy consumption. Also, in the long-run, there is no causality running from output or trade to renewable energy. In the long-run, our estimations show that renewable energy consumption and trade have a statistically significant and positive impact on output. Our energy policy recommendations are that national authorities should design appropriate fiscal incentives to encourage the use of renewable energies, create more regional economic integration for renewable energy technologies, and encourage trade openness because of its positive impact on technology transfer and on output. - Highlights: • We examine the relationship between renewable energy consumption, trade and output in African countries. • There is a bidirectional causality between output and trade in both the short and long-run. • In the short-run, there is no causality between renewable energy consumption and trade or output. • In the long-run, renewable energy consumption and trade have a statistically significant positive impact on output. • African authorities should encourage trade openness because of its positive impact on technology transfer and on output

  13. Hydrological response to dynamical downscaling of climate model outputs: A case study for western and eastern snowmelt-dominated Canada catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magali Troin


    New hydrological insights for the region: Results show that the CRCM captures the primary features of observed climate, but there are significant biases. Most noteworthy are a positive bias in precipitation and a negative bias in temperature over the BC basin. When looking at the hydrological modeling results, the benefit of using the RCM versus GCMs emerged distinctly for the mountainous BC basin where the RCM is preferred over the GCMs. The sensitivity experiments show that uncertainty in the GCM/RCM’s internal variability must be assessed to provide suitable regional hydrological responses to climate change.

  14. Blending Model Output with satellite-based and in-situ observations to produce high-resolution estimates of population exposure to wildfire smoke (United States)

    Lassman, William

    In the western US, emissions from wildfires and prescribed fire have been associated with degradation of regional air quality. Whereas atmospheric aerosol particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 mum (PM2.5) have known impacts on human health, there is uncertainty in how particle composition, concentrations, and exposure duration impact the associated health response. Due to changes in climate and land-management, wildfires have increased in frequency and severity, and this trend is expected to continue. Consequently, wildfires are expected to become an increasingly important source of PM2.5 in the western US. While composition and source of the aerosol is thought to be an important factor in the resulting human health-effects, this is currently not well-understood; therefore, there is a need to develop a quantitative understanding of wildfire-smoke-specific health effects. A necessary step in this process is to determine who was exposed to wildfire smoke, the concentration of the smoke during exposure, and the duration of the exposure. Three different tools are commonly used to assess exposure to wildfire smoke: in-situ measurements, satellite-based observations, and chemical-transport model (CTM) simulations, and each of these exposure-estimation tools have associated strengths and weakness. In this thesis, we investigate the utility of blending these tools together to produce highly accurate estimates of smoke exposure during the 2012 fire season in Washington for use in an epidemiological case study. For blending, we use a ridge regression model, as well as a geographically weighted ridge regression model. We evaluate the performance of the three individual exposure-estimate techniques and the two blended techniques using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation. Due to the number of in-situ monitors present during this time period, we find that predictions based on in-situ monitors were more accurate for this particular fire season than the CTM simulations and

  15. The models of phase transformations definition in the software Deform and their effect on the output values from the numerical simulation of gear thermal processing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sona Benesova


    Full Text Available With the aid of DEFORM® software it is possible to conduct numerical simulation of workpiece phase composition during and upon heat treatment. The computation can be based on either the graphical representation of TTT diagram of the steel in question or one of the mathematical models integrated in the software, the latter being applicable if the required constants are known. The present paper gives an evaluation of differences between results of numerical simulations with various definitions of phase transformation for the heat treatment of a gearwheel and a specially prepared specimen of simple shape. It was found that the preparation of input data in terms of thorough mapping of characteristics of the material is essential. 

  16. Applications of the epidemiological modelling outputs for targeted mental health planning in conflict-affected populations: the Syria case-study. (United States)

    Charlson, F J; Lee, Y Y; Diminic, S; Whiteford, H


    Epidemiological models are frequently utilised to ascertain disease prevalence in a population; however, these estimates can have wider practical applications for informing targeted scale-up and optimisation of mental health services. We explore potential applications for a conflict-affected population, Syria. We use prevalence estimates of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in conflict-affected populations as inputs for subsequent estimations. We use Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodology to estimate years lived with a disability (YLDs) for depression and PTSD in Syrian populations. Human resource (HR) requirements to scale-up recommended packages of care for PTSD and depression in Syria over a 15-year period were modelled using the World Health Organisation mhGAP costing tool. Associated avertable burden was estimated using health benefit analyses. The total number of cases of PTSD in Syria was estimated at approximately 2.2 million, and approximately 1.1 million for depression. An age-standardised major depression rate of 13.4 (95% UI 9.8-17.5) YLDs per 1000 Syrian population is estimated compared with the GBD 2010 global age-standardised YLD rate of 9.2 (95% UI 7.0-11.8). HR requirements to support a linear scale-up of services in Syria using the mhGAP costing tool demonstrates a steady increase from 0.3 FTE in at baseline to 7.6 FTE per 100 000 population after scale-up. Linear scale-up over 15 years could see 7-9% of disease burden being averted. Epidemiological estimates of mental disorders are key inputs into determining disease burden and guiding optimal mental health service delivery and can be used in target populations such as conflict-affected populations.

  17. Infinite cloud model of electrification by the precipitation mechanism in a possible rainout situation. Interim report, 14 January 1976--30 July 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spangler, J.D.


    This report examines the extent to which the ionization associated with a radioactive aerosol will limit electric field growth in a thundercloud. Favored mechanisms for thundercloud electrification, called precipitation mechanisms, involve charge separation in collisions between falling hydrometeors and cloud droplets followed by separation of the resulting charged objects as the hydrometeors fall through the cloud and the droplets move with the updraft. We have extended a simple, infinite-cloud, precipitation-mechanism model to include effects due to the presence of radioactive aerosol particles. These effects involve ion generation, convection currents due to motions of ions and charged aerosol particles, and collection of ions and aerosol particles by hydrometeors and cloud droplets

  18. CMAQv502 Base AQS Hourly site compare output (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Monthly AQS hourly site compare output files for the CMAQv502 Base simulation. Monthly files contain hourly paired model/ob data for the AQS network. These data were...

  19. Weak Disposability in Nonparametric Production Analysis with Undesirable Outputs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuosmanen, T.K.


    Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group at Wageningen University in The Netherlands Weak disposability of outputs means that firms can abate harmful emissions by decreasing the activity level. Modeling weak disposability in nonparametric production analysis has caused some confusion.

  20. Heat, Moisture, and Momentum Budgets of Isolated Deep Midlatitude and Tropical Convective Clouds as Diagnosed from Three-Dimensional Model Output. Part I: Control Experiments. (United States)

    Schlesinger, Robert E.


    This project uses a three-dimensional anelastic cloud model with a simple ice phase parameterization to evaluate the feedback between isolated deep convective clouds and their near surroundings. The horizontal Reynolds averaging approach of Anthes is adopted to diagnose the vertical profiles of the individual budget terms for heat, moisture, and horizontal momentum, as well as the resultant effects of each budget as defined by apparent sources or sinks. The averaging area, 33.75 km on a side, is comparable to one grid cell for typical mesoscale numerical weather prediction models.Two comparative simulations are run, one for a severe Oklahoma thunderstorm in strong vertical wind shear and the other for a tropical Atlantic cumulonimbus in much weaker shear. The midlatitude cloud evolves to a vigorous quasi-steady mature stage with several supercell characteristics including an erect large-diameter updraft, a strong and vertically extensive mesolow, and a well-developed highly asymmetric cold pool that spreads rapidly. In contrast, the tropical updraft is much narrower and slower with a shallow weak midlevel mesolow, leans markedly downshear, and evolves early into slow decay modulated by bubblelike pulsations, while the cold pool is weak and quasi-circular and spreads slowly.There are several similarities between corresponding budgets in the two runs. Most notably: 1) The heat and moisture budgets are dominated by condensation, which is maximized in the midtroposphere. 2) The horizontal pressure gradient force dominates the momentum budget. 3) Vertical eddy transport (flux divergence) is highly important to each budget. Thermodynamically, it acts to mainly cool and dry the lower troposphere, while warming and moistening the upper troposphere, though with a lower crossover level for moisture than for heat. 4) The altitudes of the peak apparent heat sources are determined by the vertical eddy transport of heat. 5) Net evaporation has 40% as much amplitude as the

  1. Money and Output: A Test of Reverse Causation.


    Coleman, Wilbur John, II


    This paper attempts to explain the correlation between money and output at various leads and lags with a model in which money is largely neutral and endogenously responds to output. Money is endogenous because both monetary policy and deposit creation are endogenous. Parameters are selected according to the simulated moments estimation technique. While the estimated model succeeds along some dimensions in matching properties of postwar U.S. data, its failure to match key patterns of lead-lag ...

  2. Industrial output restriction and the Kyoto protocol. An input-output approach with application to Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lixon, Benoit [A.D.E Consulting Services, Rue de Clairvaux, 40/101, 1348 Louvain-La-Neuve (Belgium); Thomassin, Paul J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, McGill University, Montreal (Canada); Hamaide, Bertrand [Faculty of Economics, Social and Political Sciences, Facultes Universitaires Saint-Louis, 43 boulevard du jardin botanique, 1000 Brussels (Belgium)


    The objective of this paper is to assess the economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing industrial output in Canada to a level that will meet the target set out in the Kyoto Protocol. The study uses an ecological-economic Input-Output model combining economic components valued in monetary terms with ecologic components - GHG emissions - expressed in physical terms. Economic and greenhouse gas emissions data for Canada are computed in the same sectoral disaggregation. Three policy scenarios are considered: the first one uses the direct emission coefficients to allocate the reduction in industrial output, while the other two use the direct plus indirect emission coefficients. In the first two scenarios, the reduction in industrial sector output is allocated uniformly across sectors while it is allocated to the 12 largest emitting industries in the last one. The estimated impacts indicate that the results vary with the different allocation methods. The third policy scenario, allocation to the 12 largest emitting sectors, is the most cost effective of the three as the impacts of the Kyoto Protocol reduces Gross Domestic Product by 3.1% compared to 24% and 8.1% in the first two scenarios. Computed economic costs should be considered as upper-bounds because the model assumes immediate adjustment to the Kyoto Protocol and because flexibility mechanisms are not incorporated. The resulting upper-bound impact of the third scenario may seem to contradict those who claim that the Kyoto Protocol would place an unbearable burden on the Canadian economy. (author)

  3. CO2 emissions, energy usage, and output in Central America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apergis, Nicholas; Payne, James E.


    This study extends the recent work of Ang (2007) [Ang, J.B., 2007. CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France. Energy Policy 35, 4772-4778] in examining the causal relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and output within a panel vector error correction model for six Central American countries over the period 1971-2004. In long-run equilibrium energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant impact on emissions while real output exhibits the inverted U-shape pattern associated with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The short-run dynamics indicate unidirectional causality from energy consumption and real output, respectively, to emissions along with bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real output. In the long-run there appears to be bidirectional causality between energy consumption and emissions.

  4. Submersed Aquatic Vegetation Modeling Output Online

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yin, Yao; Rogala, Jim; Sullivan, John; Rohweder, Jason


    .... In years when submersed aquatic vegetation is predicted to be scarce in important wildlife habitats, managers can get the message out to hunters well before the hunting season (Jim Nissen, Upper Mississippi River National Wildlife and Fish Refuge, La Crosse District Manager, La Crosse, Wisconsin, personal communication).

  5. Input/Output linearizing control of a nuclear reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez C, V.


    The feedback linearization technique is an approach to nonlinear control design. The basic idea is to transform, by means of algebraic methods, the dynamics of a nonlinear control system into a full or partial linear system. As a result of this linearization process, the well known basic linear control techniques can be used to obtain some desired dynamic characteristics. When full linearization is achieved, the method is referred to as input-state linearization, whereas when partial linearization is achieved, the method is referred to as input-output linearization. We will deal with the latter. By means of input-output linearization, the dynamics of a nonlinear system can be decomposed into an external part (input-output), and an internal part (unobservable). Since the external part consists of a linear relationship among the output of the plant and the auxiliary control input mentioned above, it is easy to design such an auxiliary control input so that we get the output to behave in a predetermined way. Since the internal dynamics of the system is known, we can check its dynamics behavior on order of to ensure that the internal states are bounded. The linearization method described here can be applied to systems with one-input/one-output, as well as to systems with multiple-inputs/multiple-outputs. Typical control problems such as stabilization and reference path tracking can be solved using this technique. In this work, the input/output linearization theory is presented, as well as the problem of getting the output variable to track some desired trayectories. Further, the design of an input/output control system applied to the nonlinear model of a research nuclear reactor is included, along with the results obtained by computer simulation. (Author)

  6. Intercomparison of retrieval algorithms for the specific surface area of snow from near-infrared satellite data in mountainous terrain, and comparison with the output of a semi-distributed snowpack model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mary


    Full Text Available This study compares different methods to retrieve the specific surface area (SSA of snow from satellite radiance measurements in mountainous terrain. It aims at addressing the effect on the retrieval of topographic corrections of reflectance, namely slope and aspect of terrain, multiple reflections on neighbouring slopes and accounting (or not for the anisotropy of snow reflectance. Using MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS data for six different clear sky scenes spanning a wide range of snow conditions during the winter season 2008–2009 over a domain of 46 × 50 km in the French Alps, we compared SSA retrievals with and without topographic correction, with a spherical or non-spherical snow reflectance model and, in spherical case, with or without anisotropy corrections. The retrieved SSA values were compared to field measurements and to the results of the detailed snowpack model Crocus, fed by driving data from the SAFRAN meteorological analysis. It was found that the difference in terms of surface SSA between retrieved values and SAFRAN-Crocus output was minimal when the topographic correction was taken into account, when using a retrieval method assuming disconnected spherical snow grains. In this case, the root mean square deviation was 9.4 m2 kg−1 and the mean difference was 0.1 m2 kg−1, based on 3170 pairs of observation and simulated values. The added-value of the anisotropy correction was not significant in our case, which may be explained by the presence of mixed pixels and surface roughness. MODIS retrieved data show SSA variations with elevation and aspect which are physically consistent and in good agreement with SAFRAN-Crocus outputs. The variability of the MODIS retrieved SSA within the topographic classes of the model was found to be relatively small (3.9 m2 kg−1. This indicates that semi-distributed snowpack simulations in mountainous terrain with a sufficiently large number of classes provides a

  7. Infusion of Atmospheric Dust Model Outputs into a Public Health Decision Support System: The Integration of Open Geospatial Consortium Service Products Into the New Mexico Environmental Public Health Tracking System (United States)

    Hudspeth, W. B.; Cavner, J. A.


    New Mexico's Environmental Public Health Tracking System (EPHTS), funded by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), aims to improve health awareness and services by linking health effects data with levels and frequency of environmental exposure. As a public health web-based decision-support system, EPHTS systems include: state-of-the-art statistical analysis tools; geospatial visualization tools; data discovery, extraction, and delivery tools; and environmental/public health linkage information. As part of its mandate, EPHTS issues public health advisories and forecasts of environmental conditions that have consequences for human health. Through a NASA-funded partnership between the University of New Mexico and the University of Arizona, efforts have been underway to infuse NASA Earth Science results, as well as meteorological forecast data, into two existing models (the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model) in order to improve forecasts of atmospheric dust, ozone, and aerosols. The goal of this work has been to develop services that can be integrated into existing public health decision support systems (DSS) to provide enhanced environmental data (i.e. ground surface particulate concentration estimates) for use in epidemiological analysis, public health warning systems, and syndromic surveillance systems. The results and products derived from the outputs of these models are made available to the New Mexico EPHTS. In particular, these products are integrated into existing clients within the larger framework of the EPHTS Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The SOA can be described as an multi-tiered architecture of interacting services, each providing a specific function. They include SOAP (Simple Object Access Protocol) and OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) services to deliver maps, data, and analytical capabilities. This paper reviews the SOA developed as

  8. Public Investment and Output Performance: Evidence from Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aregbeyen Omo


    Full Text Available This study examined the direct/indirect long-run relationships and dynamic interactions between public investment (PI and output performance in Nigeria using annual data spanning 1970-2010. A macro-econometric model derived from Keynes’ income-expenditure framework was employed. The model was disaggregated into demand and supply sides to trace the direct and indirect effects of PI on aggregate output. The direct supply side effect was assessed using the magnitude of PI multiplier coefficient, while the indirect effect of PI on the demand side was evaluated with marginal propensity to consume, accelerator coefficient and import multiplier. The results showed relatively less strong direct effect of PI on aggregate output, while the indirect effects were stronger with the import multiplier being the most pronounced. This is attributed to declining capital expenditure, poor implementation and low quality of PI projects due to widespread corruption. By and large, we concluded that PI exerted considerable influence on aggregate output.

  9. Robust output synchronization of heterogeneous nonlinear agents in uncertain networks. (United States)

    Yang, Xi; Wan, Fuhua; Tu, Mengchuan; Shen, Guojiang


    This paper investigates the global robust output synchronization problem for a class of nonlinear multi-agent systems. In the considered setup, the controlled agents are heterogeneous and with both dynamic and parametric uncertainties, the controllers are incapable of exchanging their internal states with the neighbors, and the communication network among agents is defined by an uncertain simple digraph. The problem is pursued via nonlinear output regulation theory and internal model based design. For each agent, the input-driven filter and the internal model compose the controller, and the decentralized dynamic output feedback control law is derived by using backstepping method and the modified dynamic high-gain technique. The theoretical result is applied to output synchronization problem for uncertain network of Lorenz-type agents. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Output Feedback M-MRAC Backstepping With Aerospace Applications (United States)

    Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje Sriniva


    The paper presents a certainty equivalence output feedback backstepping adaptive control design method for the systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties without over-parametrization. It uses a fast prediction model to estimate the unknown parameters, which is independent of the control design. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters. The approach is applied to aerospace control problems and tested in numerical simulations.

  11. DOOp: DAOSPEC Output Optimizer pipeline (United States)

    Cantat-Gaudin, Tristan; Donati, Paolo; Pancino, Elena; Bragaglia, Angela; Vallenari, Antonella; Friel, Eileen D.; Sordo, Rosanna; Jacobson, Heather R.; Magrini, Laura


    The DAOSPEC Output Optimizer pipeline (DOOp) runs efficient and convenient equivalent widths measurements in batches of hundreds of spectra. It uses a series of BASH scripts to work as a wrapper for the FORTRAN code DAOSPEC (ascl:1011.002) and uses IRAF (ascl:9911.002) to automatically fix some of the parameters that are usually set by hand when using DAOSPEC. This allows batch-processing of quantities of spectra that would be impossible to deal with by hand. DOOp was originally built for the large quantity of UVES and GIRAFFE spectra produced by the Gaia-ESO Survey, but just like DAOSPEC, it can be used on any high resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio spectrum binned on a linear wavelength scale.

  12. Probabilistic Output Analysis by Program Manipulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosendahl, Mads; Kirkeby, Maja Hanne


    The aim of a probabilistic output analysis is to derive a probability distribution of possible output values for a program from a probability distribution of its input. We present a method for performing static output analysis, based on program transformation techniques. It generates a probabilit...

  13. Blood pressure and heart rate from the arterial blood pressure waveform can reliably estimate cardiac output in a conscious sheep model of multiple hemorrhages and resuscitation using computer machine learning approaches. (United States)

    Liu, Nehemiah T; Kramer, George C; Khan, Muzna N; Kinsky, Michael P; Salinas, José


    This study was a first step to facilitate the development of automated decision support systems using cardiac output (CO) for combat casualty care. Such systems remain a practical challenge in battlefield and prehospital settings. In these environments, reliable CO estimation using blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) may provide additional capabilities for diagnosis and treatment of trauma patients. The aim of this study was to demonstrate that continuous BP and HR from the arterial BP waveform coupled with machine learning (ML) can reliably estimate CO in a conscious sheep model of multiple hemorrhages and resuscitation. Hemodynamic parameters (BPs, HR) were derived from 100-Hz arterial BP waveforms of 10 sheep records, 3 hours to 4 hours long. Two models (mean arterial pressure, Windkessel) were then applied and merged to estimate COVS. ML was used to develop a rule for identifying when models required calibration. All records contained 100-Hz recording of pulmonary arterial blood flow using Doppler transit time (COFP). COFP and COVS were analyzed using equivalence tests and Bland-Altman analysis, as well as waveform and concordance plots. Baseline COFP varied from 3.0 L/min to 5.4 L/min, while posthemorrhage COFP varied from 1.0 L/min to 1.8 L/min. A total of 315,196 pairs of data were obtained. Equivalence tests for individual records showed that COVS was statistically equivalent to COFP (p < 0.05). Smaller equivalence thresholds (<0.3 L/min) indicated an overall high COFP accuracy. The agreement between COFP and COVS was -0.13 (0.69) L/min (Bland-Altman). In an exclusion zone of 12%, trending analysis found a 92% concordance between 5-minute changes in COFP and COVS. This study showed that CO can be reliably estimated using BPs and HR from the arterial BP waveform in combination with ML. A next step will be to test this approach using noninvasive BPs and HR.

  14. Optical transducers with frequency output (United States)

    Osadchuk, Oleksandr V.; Osadchuk, Volodymyr S.; Osadchuk, Iaroslav O.; Kolimoldayev, Maksat; Komada, Paweł; Mussabekov, Kanat


    In this work the characteristics research of microelectronic transducers of optical radiation with a frequency output signal on the basis of a hybrid integrated circuit consisting of a bipolar and a field-effect transistor with a Schottky barrier is presented. The connection of an external inductance to electrodes a collector - drain allows to implement the auto generating device. The frequency of the device generation depends on power of optical radiation falling on photosensing elements as a photoresistor, photodiode and photosensing transistors switched on in a circuit of the self-excited oscillator. The impedance on electrodes the collector - drain of bipolar and field transistors has capacitive reactive part and negative active resistance, which compensates power losses in a tuning circuit of the device. On the base of a nonlinear equivalent circuit of the transducer on an alternating current the analytical expressions of function of transformation and equation of sensitivity are obtained. The sensitivity of optical transducers lays in a range from 25 kHz/μWt/cm2 up to 150 kHz/μWt/cm2.

  15. Parsing statistical machine translation output

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carter, S.; Monz, C.; Vetulani, Z.


    Despite increasing research into the use of syntax during statistical machine translation, the incorporation of syntax into language models has seen limited success. We present a study of the discriminative abilities of generative syntax-based language models, over and above standard n-gram models,

  16. Measuring Cardiac Output during Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing. (United States)

    Vignati, Carlo; Cattadori, Gaia


    Cardiac output is a key parameter in the assessment of cardiac function, and its measurement is fundamental to the diagnosis, treatment, and prognostic evaluation of all heart diseases. Until recently, cardiac output determination during exercise had been only possible through invasive methods, which were not practical in the clinical setting. Because [Formula: see text]o 2 is cardiac output times arteriovenous content difference, evaluation of cardiac output is usually included in its measurement. Because of the difficulty of directly measuring peak exercise cardiac output, indirect surrogate parameters have been proposed, but with only modest clinical usefulness. Direct measurement of cardiac output can now be made by several noninvasive techniques, such as rebreathing inert gases, impedance cardiology, thoracic bioreactance, estimated continuous cardiac output technology, and transthoracic echocardiography coupled to cardiopulmonary exercise testing, which allow more definitive results and better understanding of the underlying physiopathology.

  17. Interferometric output coupling of ring optical oscillators. (United States)

    Chaitanya Kumar, S; Esteban-Martin, A; Ebrahim-Zadeh, M


    We demonstrate the successful deployment of an antiresonant ring (ARR) interferometer within a ring optical resonator and its use for absolute optimization of output power. The integration of the ARR interferometer in a folded arm of the ring oscillator provides continuously variable output coupling over broad spectral range and under any operating conditions. We demonstrate the technique using a picosecond optical parametric oscillator (OPO), where we show continuously adjustable output coupling and optimization of the output power for different pump power conditions, from 3.5 W to 13.5 W. By operating the OPO under an optimized output coupling at 14 W of pump power, we obtain >5 W of extracted signal power, more than 2.6 times that with a ~5% conventional output coupler. We also show that the inclusion of the ARR interferometer has no detrimental effect on the spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics of OPO output.

  18. Deep Value Networks Learn to Evaluate and Iteratively Refine Structured Outputs


    Gygli, Michael; Norouzi, Mohammad; Angelova, Anelia


    We approach structured output prediction by optimizing a deep value network (DVN) to precisely estimate the task loss on different output configurations for a given input. Once the model is trained, we perform inference by gradient descent on the continuous relaxations of the output variables to find outputs with promising scores from the value network. When applied to image segmentation, the value network takes an image and a segmentation mask as inputs and predicts a scalar estimating the i...

  19. Evaluation of input output efficiency of oil field considering undesirable output —A case study of sandstone reservoir in Xinjiang oilfield (United States)

    Zhang, Shuying; Wu, Xuquan; Li, Deshan; Xu, Yadong; Song, Shulin


    Based on the input and output data of sandstone reservoir in Xinjiang oilfield, the SBM-Undesirable model is used to study the technical efficiency of each block. Results show that: the model of SBM-undesirable to evaluate its efficiency and to avoid defects caused by traditional DEA model radial angle, improve the accuracy of the efficiency evaluation. by analyzing the projection of the oil blocks, we find that each block is in the negative external effects of input redundancy and output deficiency benefit and undesirable output, and there are greater differences in the production efficiency of each block; the way to improve the input-output efficiency of oilfield is to optimize the allocation of resources, reduce the undesirable output and increase the expected output.

  20. Multi-output regression using a locally regularised orthogonal least square algorithm


    Chen, S.


    The paper proposes a locally regularised orthogonal least squares (LROLS) algorithm for constructing sparse multi-output regression models that generalise well. By associating each regressor in the regression model with an individual regularisation parameter, the ability for the multi-output orthogonal least squares (OLS) model selection to produce a parsimonious model with good generalisation performance is greatly enhanced.

  1. The 'icon' of output efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bligh, L.N.; Evans, S.G.; Larcos, G.; Gruenewald, S.M.


    Full text: Output efficiency (OE) is a well-validated parameter used in the assessment of hydronephrosis. Current analysis on Microdelta appears to produce few low OE values and occasional inability to produce a result. We sought an OE program which gave a reliable response over the full range of values. The aims of this study were to determine: (1) whether OE results are comparable between two computer systems; (2) a normal range for OE on an ICON; (3) inter-observer reproducibility; and (4) the correlation between the two programs and the residual cortical activity ratio (RCA), an index which assesses tracer washout from the 20 min cortical activity/peak cortical activity. Accordingly, two blinded medical radiation scientists reviewed 41 kidneys (26 native, 15 transplant) and calculated OE for each kidney on the ICON and Microdelta computers The OE on the Microdelta and the ICON had good correspondence (r = 0.6%, SEE = 6.2). The extrapolated normal range for ICON OE was 69-92% (mean 80.9%). The inter-observer reproducibility on the ICON was excellent with a CV of 8.7%. ICON OE and RCA had a strong correlation (r = - 0.77, SEE = 0.09), compared with a weaker correlation for the Microdelta (r = 0.47, SEE = 0.13). Processing on the ICON was almost half that of the Microdelta at 4 min compared with 7 min. We conclude that OE generated by these computer programs has good correlation, an established normal range, excellent interobserver reproducibility, but differing correlation with RCA. The response of the ICON program to low ranges of OE is being investigated further

  2. Technical note: Coordination and harmonization of the multi-scale, multi-model activities HTAP2, AQMEII3, and MICS-Asia3: simulations, emission inventories, boundary conditions, and model output formats (United States)

    Galmarini, Stefano; Koffi, Brigitte; Solazzo, Efisio; Keating, Terry; Hogrefe, Christian; Schulz, Michael; Benedictow, Anna; Griesfeller, Jan Jurgen; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Carmichael, Greg; Fu, Joshua; Dentener, Frank


    We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012-2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). To improve model estimates of the impacts of intercontinental transport of air pollution on climate, ecosystems, and human health and to answer a set of policy-relevant questions, these three initiatives performed emission perturbation modelling experiments consistent across the global, hemispheric, and continental/regional scales. In all three initiatives, model results are extensively compared against monitoring data for a range of variables (meteorological, trace gas concentrations, and aerosol mass and composition) from different measurement platforms (ground measurements, vertical profiles, airborne measurements) collected from a number of sources. Approximately 10 to 25 modelling groups have contributed to each initiative, and model results have been managed centrally through three data hubs maintained by each initiative. Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives to address a common set of policy-relevant questions, this publication provides the motivation for the modelling activity, the rationale for specific choices made in the model experiments, and an overview of the organizational structures for both the modelling and the measurements used and analysed in a number of modelling studies in this special issue.

  3. Theoretical analysis of magnetic sensor output voltage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Haishun; Dun Chaochao; Dou Linming; Yang Weiming


    The output voltage is an important parameter to determine the stress state in magnetic stress measurement, the relationship between the output voltage and the difference in the principal stresses was investigated by a comprehensive application of magnetic circuit theory, magnetization theory, stress analysis as well as the law of electromagnetic induction, and a corresponding quantitative equation was derived. It is drawn that the output voltage is proportional to the difference in the principal stresses, and related to the angle between the principal stress and the direction of the sensor. This investigation provides a theoretical basis for the principle stresses measurement by output voltage. - Research highlights: → A comprehensive investigation of magnetic stress signal. → Derived a quantitative equation about output voltage and the principal stresses. → The output voltage is proportional to the difference of the principal stresses. → Provide a theoretical basis for the principle stresses measurement.

  4. Output order in immediate serial recall. (United States)

    Tan, Lydia; Ward, Geoff


    In two experiments, we examined the effect of output order in immediate serial recall (ISR). In Experiment 1, three groups of participants saw lists of eight words and wrote down the words in the rows corresponding to their serial positions in an eight-row response grid. One group was precued to respond in forward order, a second group was precued to respond in any order, and a third group was postcued for response order. There were significant effects of output order, but not of cue type. Relative to the forward output order, the free output order led to enhanced recency and diminished primacy, with superior performance for words output early in recall. These results were replicated in Experiment 2 using six-item lists, which further suggests that output order plays an important role in the primacy effect in ISR and that the recency items are most highly accessible at recall.

  5. Does trade drive global output growth?


    Leon Podkaminer


    Conventional econometric analysis suggests that there has been a longer-term relationship between nominal world output and nominal world exports. The analysis says something about the rules governing adjustments in world output and exports. It appears that GDP plays the first fiddle. Rising world output seems to have pushed up world exports. But rising world exports do not seem to have resulted in positive changes in global GDP. The global growth slowdown, observed since the early 1970s, may ...

  6. Exercise efficiency of low power output cycling. (United States)

    Reger, M; Peterman, J E; Kram, R; Byrnes, W C


    Exercise efficiency at low power outputs, energetically comparable to daily living activities, can be influenced by homeostatic perturbations (e.g., weight gain/loss). However, an appropriate efficiency calculation for low power outputs used in these studies has not been determined. Fifteen active subjects (seven females, eight males) performed 14, 5-min cycling trials: two types of seated rest (cranks vertical and horizontal), passive (motor-driven) cycling, no-chain cycling, no-load cycling, cycling at low (10, 20, 30, 40 W), and moderate (50, 60, 80, 100, 120 W) power outputs. Mean delta efficiency was 57% for low power outputs compared to 41.3% for moderate power outputs. Means for gross (3.6%) and net (5.7%) efficiencies were low at the lowest power output. At low power outputs, delta and work efficiency values exceeded theoretical values. In conclusion, at low power outputs, none of the common exercise efficiency calculations gave values comparable to theoretical muscle efficiency. However, gross efficiency and the slope and intercept of the metabolic power vs mechanical power output regression provide insights that are still valuable when studying homeostatic perturbations. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Output filters for AC adjustable speed drives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blaabjerg, Frede; Hanigovszki, Norbert; Landkildehus, Jorn, Jorn


    -phase applications the occurrence of common-mode (CM) voltage is inherent due to asymmetrical output pulses [1]. Consequently, several secondary effects arise at the inverter's output: high-frequency conducted and radiated emissions, leakage current, motor insulation stress due to wave reflection [2], bearing stress...... due to bearing currents, acoustic switching noise. Depending on the specific application, the mitigation of some of these effects (or all) might be necessary. The common solution for mitigating the secondary effects at the output of PWM-VSI is the use of output filters [3],[5],[6]. Several types...

  8. Auxetic piezoelectric energy harvesters for increased electric power output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Li


    Full Text Available This letter presents a piezoelectric bimorph with auxetic (negative Poisson’s ratio behaviors for increased power output in vibration energy harvesting. The piezoelectric bimorph comprises a 2D auxetic substrate sandwiched between two piezoelectric layers. The auxetic substrate is capable of introducing auxetic behaviors and thus increasing the transverse stress in the piezoelectric layers when the bimorph is subjected to a longitudinal stretching load. As a result, both 31- and 32-modes are simultaneously exploited to generate electric power, leading to an increased power output. The increasing power output principle was theoretically analyzed and verified by finite element (FE modelling. The FE modelling results showed that the auxetic substrate can increase the transverse stress of a bimorph by 16.7 times. The average power generated by the auxetic bimorph is 2.76 times of that generated by a conventional bimorph.

  9. Effect of Aspect Ratio on the Light Output of Scintillators

    CERN Document Server

    Pauwels, Kristof; Gundacker, S.; Knapitsch, A.; Lecoq, P.


    The influence of the geometry of the scintillators is presented in this paper. We focus on the effect of narrowing down the section of crystals that have a given length. The light output of a set of crystals with very similar scintillating properties but different geometries measured with several coupling/wrapping configurations is provided. We observe that crystals shaped in thin rods have a lower light output as compared to bulk or sliced crystals. The effect of unpolishing the crystal faces is also investigated, and it is shown that highest light outputs are not necessarily obtained with crystals having all faces polished. Simulation results based on a realistic model of the crystal that implements light scattering on the crystal edges are in agreement with the experimental data. Fine-tuning of this model would allow us to further explore the details of light propagation in scintillators and would be highly valuable to fast timing detection and highly granular detectors.

  10. Agent Based Simulation Output Analysis (United States)


    over long periods of time) not to have a steady state, but apparently does. These simulation models are available free from 2.1...are used in computer animations and movies (for example, in the movie Jurassic Park) as well as to look for emergent social behavior in groups

  11. Does Black’s Hypothesis for Output Variability Hold for Mexico?


    Macri, Joseph; Sinha, Dipendra


    Using two data series, namely GDP and the index of industrial production, we study the relationship between output variability and the growth rate of output. Ng-Perron unit root test shows that the growth rate of GDP is non-stationary but the growth rate of industrial output is stationary. Thus, we use the ARCH-M model for the monthly data of industrial output. A number of specifications (with and without a dummy variable) are used. In all cases, the results show that output variability has a...

  12. Preventing Inductive Output Impedance of High-Frequency Emitter Follower Stages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. C. Tozer


    Full Text Available Large output inductance is one of major issues of high-frequency emitter follower design. The most often suggested technique to reduce its value is the decreasing of AC transconductance which offers small output inductance at the expense of loosing low output resistance. The paper presents a different approach; it is shown that output inductance can be completely cancelled while keeping very low output resistance by introducing a pole at the input node which may be more suitable in many types of design. Complete analytical evaluation based on the full hybrid-n model of the bipolar transistor device is given.

  13. Assessing the psychological factors predicting workers' output ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study investigated job security, communication skills, interpersonal relationship and emotional intelligence as correlates of workers' output among local government employees in Oyo State. The research adopted descriptive design of an expose facto type. The research instruments used includes Workers' output scale, ...

  14. Exact nonradial input, output, and productivity measurement


    Robert G. Chambers


    The use of measures originally suggested by Bennet, Bowley, and Hicks in the context of cost of living, welfare, and consumer surplus measurement to measure inputs, outputs, and productivity is examined. Suitably normalized versions of the Bennet-Bowley measures are shown to be exact and superlative measures of input, output, and productivity indicators.

  15. DIST/AVC Out-Put Definition. (United States)

    Wilkinson, Gene L.

    The first stage of development of a management information system for DIST/AVC (Division of Instructional Technology/Audio-Visual Center) is the definition of out-put units. Some constraints on the definition of output units are: 1) they should reflect goals of the organization, 2) they should reflect organizational structure and procedures, and…

  16. Public Infrastructure Investment, Output Dynamics, and Balanced Budget Fiscal Rules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duarte Bom, P.R.; Ligthart, J.E.


    We study the dynamic output and welfare effects of public infrastructure investment under a balanced budget fiscal rule, using an overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The government finances public investment by employing distortionary labor taxes. We find a negative short-run

  17. 8q mb2x output transducer system

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    Jan 19, 2006 ... A MODEL INSTRUMENTATION DESIGN TECHNIQUE AND CONSTRUCTION OFA 120W,. 8Q MB2X OUTPUT ... The Physics of electronic instrumentation and experimental techniques was studied and the design and construction of an ... ensure a minimum of mid-bass and mid-range coloration of the ...

  18. Design of an emi output filter for frequency converters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roc'h, A.; Bergsma, J.G.; Bergsma, H.; Leferink, Frank Bernardus Johannes; Zhao, D.; Polinder, H.; Ferreira, B.


    A filter has been designed to reduce conducted and radiated emission generated by a frequency converter. The frequency converter, cables and motor were modelled in order to make a good estimation of the radiated emission. A single stage output filter was designed making use of feedthrough apacitors

  19. Impact of Altitude on Power Output during Cycling Stage Racing. (United States)

    Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Clark, Bradley; Martin, David T; Schumacher, Yorck Olaf; McDonald, Warren; Stephens, Brian; Ma, Fuhai; Thompson, Kevin G; Gore, Christopher J; Menaspà, Paolo


    The purpose of this study was to quantify the effects of moderate-high altitude on power output, cadence, speed and heart rate during a multi-day cycling tour. Power output, heart rate, speed and cadence were collected from elite male road cyclists during maximal efforts of 5, 15, 30, 60, 240 and 600 s. The efforts were completed in a laboratory power-profile assessment, and spontaneously during a cycling race simulation near sea-level and an international cycling race at moderate-high altitude. Matched data from the laboratory power-profile and the highest maximal mean power output (MMP) and corresponding speed and heart rate recorded during the cycling race simulation and cycling race at moderate-high altitude were compared using paired t-tests. Additionally, all MMP and corresponding speeds and heart rates were binned per 1000 m (3000 m) according to the average altitude of each ride. Mixed linear modelling was used to compare cycling performance data from each altitude bin. Power output was similar between the laboratory power-profile and the race simulation, however MMPs for 5-600 s and 15, 60, 240 and 600 s were lower (p ≤ 0.005) during the race at altitude compared with the laboratory power-profile and race simulation, respectively. Furthermore, peak power output and all MMPs were lower (≥ 11.7%, p ≤ 0.001) while racing >3000 m compared with rides completed near sea-level. However, speed associated with MMP 60 and 240 s was greater (p cycling power output during competition. Decrement in cycling power output at altitude does not seem to affect speed which tended to be greater at higher altitudes.

  20. Output Volatility and Growth in Korea, China and Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Ha Lee


    Full Text Available The existing literature has shown that the relationship between output volatility and growth depends on data and/or estimation methods. In this paper, an empirical examination is made of the link between output volatility and growth in Korea, China and Japan, using monthly data on the index of industrial product from 1990 to 2009. Specifically, a country’s growth and output volatility are measured by the ratio of change in industrial product and its conditional standard error, respectively. Using EGARCH-M model, provided by Nelson (1991, to accommodate the asymmetry of economic fluctuation, estimates indicates that output volatility is negatively and significantly associated with the growth in Korea. However, the relationship between output volatility and growth is positive and statically significant in China, whereas there exists very little evidence in Japan. Moreover, unexpected positive shocks have positive impacts on growth in Korea and China, whereas the impacts are very small in Japan. Regression results also suggest that the impacts of unexpected negative shocks on growth are negative in all countries, and the magnitude is the biggest in Korea and the lowest in Japan.

  1. Output Current Ripple Reduction Algorithms for Home Energy Storage Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Hyuk Park


    Full Text Available This paper proposes an output current ripple reduction algorithm using a proportional-integral (PI controller for an energy storage system (ESS. In single-phase systems, the DC/AC inverter has a second-order harmonic at twice the grid frequency of a DC-link voltage caused by pulsation of the DC-link voltage. The output current of a DC/DC converter has a ripple component because of the ripple of the DC-link voltage. The second-order harmonic adversely affects the battery lifetime. The proposed algorithm has an advantage of reducing the second-order harmonic of the output current in the variable frequency system. The proposed algorithm is verified from the PSIM simulation and experiment with the 3 kW ESS model.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adang Agustian


    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of changes in output and input prices, corn research expenditures and road infrastructure on output supply and input demand for corn in the Province of East Java and West Java. The data that are analyzed are those of structure of costs of corn farming in the Province of East Java and West Java in 1985-2009. Estimation model employed is the method of Seemingly Unrelated Regression. The results showed that the output supply of corn both in the province of East Java and West Java are elastic to its price changes, however it is inelastic to the price changes of: seed, urea, TSP and labor. Input demand of seed, urea, TSP and labor area inelastic to their price changes. Policy implications of this research is efforts to increase the supply of corn can be carried out by increasing its price, expenditures of corn research, and road infrastructure.

  3. High Output Piezo/Triboelectric Hybrid Generator (United States)

    Jung, Woo-Suk; Kang, Min-Gyu; Moon, Hi Gyu; Baek, Seung-Hyub; Yoon, Seok-Jin; Wang, Zhong-Lin; Kim, Sang-Woo; Kang, Chong-Yun


    Recently, piezoelectric and triboelectric energy harvesting devices have been developed to convert mechanical energy into electrical energy. Especially, it is well known that triboelectric nanogenerators have a simple structure and a high output voltage. However, whereas nanostructures improve the output of triboelectric generators, its fabrication process is still complicated and unfavorable in term of the large scale and long-time durability of the device. Here, we demonstrate a hybrid generator which does not use nanostructure but generates much higher output power by a small mechanical force and integrates piezoelectric generator into triboelectric generator, derived from the simultaneous use of piezoelectric and triboelectric mechanisms in one press-and-release cycle. This hybrid generator combines high piezoelectric output current and triboelectric output voltage, which produces peak output voltage of ~370 V, current density of ~12 μ, and average power density of ~4.44 The output power successfully lit up 600 LED bulbs by the application of a 0.2 N mechanical force and it charged a 10 μF capacitor to 10 V in 25 s. Beyond energy harvesting, this work will provide new opportunities for developing a small, built-in power source in self-powered electronics such as mobile electronics.

  4. High Output Piezo/Triboelectric Hybrid Generator (United States)

    Jung, Woo-Suk; Kang, Min-Gyu; Moon, Hi Gyu; Baek, Seung-Hyub; Yoon, Seok-Jin; Wang, Zhong-Lin; Kim, Sang-Woo; Kang, Chong-Yun


    Recently, piezoelectric and triboelectric energy harvesting devices have been developed to convert mechanical energy into electrical energy. Especially, it is well known that triboelectric nanogenerators have a simple structure and a high output voltage. However, whereas nanostructures improve the output of triboelectric generators, its fabrication process is still complicated and unfavorable in term of the large scale and long-time durability of the device. Here, we demonstrate a hybrid generator which does not use nanostructure but generates much higher output power by a small mechanical force and integrates piezoelectric generator into triboelectric generator, derived from the simultaneous use of piezoelectric and triboelectric mechanisms in one press-and-release cycle. This hybrid generator combines high piezoelectric output current and triboelectric output voltage, which produces peak output voltage of ~370 V, current density of ~12 μA·cm−2, and average power density of ~4.44 mW·cm−2. The output power successfully lit up 600 LED bulbs by the application of a 0.2 N mechanical force and it charged a 10 μF capacitor to 10 V in 25 s. Beyond energy harvesting, this work will provide new opportunities for developing a small, built-in power source in self-powered electronics such as mobile electronics. PMID:25791299

  5. Basic study on dynamic reactive-power control method with PV output prediction for solar inverter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryunosuke Miyoshi


    Full Text Available To effectively utilize a photovoltaic (PV system, reactive-power control methods for solar inverters have been considered. Among the various methods, the constant-voltage control outputs less reactive power compared with the other methods. We have developed a constant-voltage control to reduce the reactive-power output. However, the developed constant-voltage control still outputs unnecessary reactive power because the control parameter is constant in every waveform of the PV output. To reduce the reactive-power output, we propose a dynamic reactive-power control method with a PV output prediction. In the proposed method, the control parameter is varied according to the properties of the predicted PV waveform. In this study, we performed numerical simulations using a distribution system model, and we confirmed that the proposed method reduces the reactive-power output within the voltage constraint.

  6. Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nam Do Hoai


    Full Text Available Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP neural network. The MLP architecture was optimized by considering physical bases that determine the circulation of atmospheric variables. Downscaled precipitation was then used as inputs to the super tank model (runoff model for flood prediction. The case study was conducted for the Thu Bon River Basin, located in Central Vietnam. Study results showed that the precipitation predicted by MLP outperformed that directly obtained from model outputs or downscaled using multiple linear regression. Consequently, flood forecast based on the downscaled precipitation was very encouraging. It has demonstrated as a robust technology, simple to implement, reliable, and universal application for flood prediction through the combination of downscaling model and super tank model.

  7. Design of hydraulic output Stirling engine (United States)

    Toscano, W. M.; Harvey, A. C.; Lee, K.


    A hydraulic output system for the RE-1000 free piston stirling engine (FPSE) was designed. The hydraulic output system can be readily integrated with the existing hot section of RE-1000 FPSE. The system has two simply supported diaphragms which separate the engine gas from the hydraulic fluid, a dynamic balance mechanism, and a novel, null center band hydraulic pump. The diaphragms are designed to endure more than 10 billion cycles, and to withstand the differential pressure load as high as 14 MPa. The projected thermodynamic performance of the hydraulic output version of RE-1000 FPSE is 1.87 kW at 29/7 percent brake efficiency.

  8. Adaptive output feedback control of aircraft flexible modes


    Ponnusamy, Sangeeth Saagar; Bordeneuve-Guibé, Joël


    The application of adaptive output feedback augmentative control to the flexible aircraft problem is presented. Experimental validation of control scheme was carried out using a three disk torsional pendulum. In the reference model adaptive control scheme, the rigid aircraft reference model and neural network adaptation is used to control structural flexible modes and compensate for the effects unmodeled dynamics and parametric variations of a classical high order large passenger aircraft. Th...

  9. Endogenous Money, Output and Prices in India


    Das, Rituparna


    This paper proposes to quantify the macroeconometric relationships among the variables broad money, lending by banks, price, and output in India using simultaneous equations system keeping in view the issue of endogeneity.

  10. Multiple Input - Multiple Output (MIMO) SAR (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This effort will research and implement advanced Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) techniques which have the potential to improve...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Margun


    Full Text Available The paper deals with robust output control algorithm for multivariable plants under disturbances. A plant is described by the system of linear differential equations with known relative degrees. Plant parameters are unknown but belong to the known closed bounded set. Plant state vector is unmeasured. Plant output is measured only via static quantizer. Control system algorithm is based on the high gain feedback method. Developed controller provides exponential convergence of tracking error to the bounded area. The area bounds depend on quantizer parameters and the value of external disturbances. Experimental approbation of the proposed control algorithm is performed with the use of Twin Rotor MIMO System laboratory bench. This bench is a helicopter like model with two degrees of freedom (pitch and yaw. DC motors are used as actuators. The output signals are measured via optical encoders. Mathematical model of laboratory bench is obtained. Proposed algorithm was compared with proportional - integral – differential controller in conditions of output quantization. Obtained results have confirmed the efficiency of proposed controller.

  12. Industrial input-output analysis: implications for industrial ecology. (United States)

    Duchin, F


    Industrial ecology will need to develop fundamentally new approaches to reducing, reusing, and recycling wastes. Industrial ecology will also require an analytic framework for examining the implications for the economic system as a whole of each potential web of industrial changes. A suitable framework is furnished by structural economics, which situates the economy within the physical world. This approach is based on dynamic analysis rather than static concepts of equilibrium, and optimization assumptions are used selectively rather than as the general solution mechanism. Input-output economics, an important formal model within structural economics, can trace the stocks and flows of energy and other materials from extraction through production and consumption to recycling or disposal. An input-output computation, including wastes, is presented; it illustrates the separate but integrated analysis of physical stocks and flows and of prices and costs. This paper also describes the major advances that have been made in the last decade in the extension of input-output economics to address increasingly complex questions, notably the fully dynamic physical/price/income model and the engineering/input-output data base. Economists need to be able to assess the costs of cleaning up and to develop incentive schemes to increase the likelihood this will happen. To do this, economists need to take on the difficult "how" questions that concern industrial ecologists since the cost, and indeed the wider implications, of cleaning up depends upon how it is done. Structural economics, and modern input-output models and data bases, in particular, can help meet this challenge.



    Kan, Iddo; Kimhi, Ayal; Lerman, Zvi


    This article examines the decision of farmers to sell part of their farm output on the market, using data from the Republic of Georgia. A two-level empirical model is used, in which endowments and resource allocation decisions determine farm output and non-farm income, and these in turn determine market participation. We found, as expected, that farm output affects market participation positively, while non-farm income affects it negatively. Landholdings have an indirect positive effect on ma...

  14. SARAH 3.2: Dirac gauginos, UFO output, and more (United States)

    Staub, Florian


    SARAH is a Mathematica package optimized for the fast, efficient and precise study of supersymmetric models beyond the MSSM: a new model can be defined in a short form and all vertices are derived. This allows SARAH to create model files for FeynArts/FormCalc, CalcHep/CompHep and WHIZARD/O'Mega. The newest version of SARAH now provides the possibility to create model files in the UFO format which is supported by MadGraph 5, MadAnalysis 5, GoSam, and soon by Herwig++. Furthermore, SARAH also calculates the mass matrices, RGEs and 1-loop corrections to the mass spectrum. This information is used to write source code for SPheno in order to create a precision spectrum generator for the given model. This spectrum-generator-generator functionality as well as the output of WHIZARD and CalcHep model files has seen further improvement in this version. Also models including Dirac gauginos are supported with the new version of SARAH, and additional checks for the consistency of the implementation of new models have been created. Program summaryProgram title:SARAH Catalogue identifier: AEIB_v2_0 Program summary URL: Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 3 22 411 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 3 629 206 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Mathematica. Computer: All for which Mathematica is available. Operating system: All for which Mathematica is available. Classification: 11.1, 11.6. Catalogue identifier of previous version: AEIB_v1_0 Journal reference of previous version: Comput. Phys. Comm. 182 (2011) 808 Does the new version supersede the previous version?: Yes, the new version includes all known features of the previous version but also provides the new features mentioned below

  15. Influence of building resolution on surface water inundation outputs (United States)

    Green, Daniel; Yu, Dapeng; Pattison, Ian


    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when intense precipitation events overwhelm the drainage capacity of an area and excess water is unable to infiltrate into the ground or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. In the UK, over 3 million properties are at risk from surface water flooding alone, accounting for approximately one third of all UK flood risk. This risk is predicted to increase due to future climatic changes resulting in an increasing magnitude and frequency of intense precipitation events. Numerical modelling is a well-established method of investigating surface water flood risk, allowing the researcher to gain an understanding of the depth, extent and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although numerical models allow the simulation of surface water inundation in a particular region, the model parameters (e.g. roughness, hydraulic conductivity) and resolution of topographic data have been shown to exert a profound influence on the inundation outputs which often leads to an over- or under-estimation of flood depths and extent without the use of external validation data to calibrate model outputs. Although previous research has demonstrated that model outputs are highly sensitive to Digital Elevation Model (DEM) mesh resolution, with flood inundation over large and complex topographies often requiring mesh resolutions coarser than the structural features (e.g. buildings) present within the study catchment, the specific influence of building resolution on surface flowpaths and connectivity during a surface water flood event has not been investigated. In this study, a LiDAR-derived DEM and OS MasterMap buildings layer of the Loughborough University campus, UK, were rasterized into separate 1m, 5m and 10m resolution layers. These layers were combined to create a series of Digital Surface Models (DSM) with varying, mismatching building and DEM resolutions (e.g. 1m DEM resolution, 10m building resolution, etc.) to understand

  16. Market power and output-based refunding of environmental policy revenues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, Carolyn


    Output-based refunding of environmental policy revenues combines a tax on emissions with a production subsidy, typically in a revenue-neutral fashion. With imperfect competition, subsidies can alleviate output underprovision. However, when market shares are significant, endogenous refunding reduces abatement incentives and the marginal net tax or subsidy. If market shares differ, marginal abatement costs will not be equalized, and production is shifted among participants. In an asymmetric Cournot duopoly, endogenous refunding leads to higher output, emissions, and overall costs compared with a fixed rebate program targeting the same emissions intensity. These results hold whether emissions rates are determined simultaneously with output or strategically in a two-stage model. (author)

  17. Estimated venous return surface and cardiac output curve precisely predicts new hemodynamics after volume change. (United States)

    Sugimachi, Masaru; Sunagawa, Kenji; Uemura, Kazunori; Kamiya, Atsunori; Shimizu, Shuji; Inagaki, Masashi; Shishido, Toshiaki


    In our extended Guyton's model, the ability of heart to pump blood is characterized by a cardiac output curve and the ability of vasculature to pool blood by a venous return surface. These intersect in a three-dimensional coordinate system at the operating right atrial pressure, left atrial pressure, and cardiac output. The baseline cardiac output curve and venous return surface and their changes after volume change would predict new hemodynamics. The invasive methods needed to precisely characterize cardiac output curve and venous return surface led us to aim at estimating cardiac output curve and venous return surface from a single hemodynamic measurement. Using the average values for two logarithmic function parameters, and for two slopes of a surface, we were able to estimate cardiac output curve and venous return surface. The estimated curve and surface predicted new hemodynamics after volume change precisely.

  18. Forecasting the Romanian sectoral economy using the input-output method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liliana DUGULEANĂ


    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to forecast the sectoral output in 2013 based on the input-output structure of Romanian economy in 2010. Considering that the economic linkage mechanisms do not easily change during certain time periods, the forecasting is possible, even if not in the sequence of the time passing. Using the technical matrix of the sectoral structure described for year 2010 and some known indicators of the economic sectors, as the value added for each sector in 2013, the sectoral output is projected for 2013. The Romanian GDP in 2013 is estimated based on the input-output model. From a managerial perspective, this study is useful to forecast the sectoral output and to understand the sectoral behaviour, based on the input-output analysis of the value added, the compensation for employees and the final demand, which were considered here.

  19. Forecasted Changes in West Africa Photovoltaic Energy Output by 2045

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serge Dimitri Yikwe Buri Bazyomo


    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV output in the fifteen countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS was analyzed in this paper. Using a set of eight climate models, the trends of solar radiation and temperature between 2006–2100 were examined. Assuming a lifetime of 40 years, the future changes of photovoltaic energy output for the tilted plane receptor compared to 2006–2015 were computed for the whole region. The results show that the trends of solar irradiation are negative except for the Irish Centre for High-End Computing model which predicts a positive trend with a maximum value of 0.17 W/m2/year for Cape Verde and the minimum of −0.06 W/m2/year for Liberia. The minimum of the negative trend is −0.18 W/m2/year predicted by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC, developed at the University of Tokyo Center for Climate System Research for Cape Verde. Furthermore, temperature trends are positive with a maximum of 0.08 K/year predicted by MIROC for Niger and minimum of 0.03 K/year predicted by Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC, Max Planck Institute (MPI for Climate Meteorology at Hamburg, French National Meteorological Research Center (CNRM and Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA for Cape Verde. Photovolataic energy output changes show increasing trends in Sierra Leone with 0.013%/year as the maximum. Climate change will lead to a decreasing trend of PV output in the rest of the countries with a minimum of 0.032%/year in Niger.

  20. The output characteristic of cantilever-like tactile sensor based on the inverse magnetostrictive effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Wan


    Full Text Available The output characteristic model of a magnetostrictive cantilever-like tactile sensor has been founded based on the inverse-magnetostrictive effect, the flexure mode, and the Jiles-Atherton model. The magnetostrictive sensor has been designed and an output voltage is analyzed under the conditions of bias magnetic field, contact pressure and deflection of cantilever beam. The experiment has been performed to determine the relation among the induced output voltage, bias magnetic field, and pressure. It is found that the peak of the induced output voltage increases with an increasing pressure under the bias magnetic field of 4.8kA/m. The experimental result agrees well with the theoretical one and it means that the model can describe the relation among the induced output voltage, bias magnetic field, and pressure. The sensor with a Galfenol sheet may hold potentials in sample characterization and deformation predication in artificial intelligence area.

  1. The light output of BGO crystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gong Zhufang; Ma Wengan; Lin Zhirong; Wang Zhaomin; Xu Zhizong; Fan Yangmei


    The dependence of light output on the surface treatment of BGO crystals has been tested. The results of experiments and Monte Carlo calculation indicate that for a tapered BGO crystal the best way to improve the uniformity and the energy resolution and to obtain higher light output is roughing the surface coupled to photomultiplier tube. The authors also observed that different wrapping method can effect its uniformity and resolutoin. Monte Carlo calculation indicates that the higher one of the 'double peaks' is the photoelectron peak of γ rays

  2. What shapes output of policy reform?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlsen, Kirsten

    and personal benefits. Rather, the thesis shows how state actors decisions are shaped by a complex inter-relation of circumstances, interests and resources at play during the level of policy implementation. Thesis findings are based on collection and analysis of qualitative data collected from actors within...... and with a particular focus on the factors influencing reform output. The main message is that state actor decisions are central determinants for the ways in which reform output is shaped. It contests political economy theory by showing that these decisions are not only determined by state actors sole pursuit of power...

  3. Money, Output and Price Level in Nigeria: A Test of the Monetary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents and tests a model to determine either or both how anticipated or unanticipated money affects real output and inflation in Nigeria. The Barro two –step estimation procedure was explored. Also, the effects of devaluation and business cycles in the industrialized countries on output fluctuation in Nigeria ...

  4. Predicting Output Power for Nearshore Wave Energy Harvesting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henock Mamo Deberneh


    Full Text Available Energy harvested from a Wave Energy Converter (WEC varies greatly with the location of its installation. Determining an optimal location that can result in maximum output power is therefore critical. In this paper, we present a novel approach to predicting the output power of a nearshore WEC by characterizing ocean waves using floating buoys. We monitored the movement of the buoys using an Arduino-based data collection module, including a gyro-accelerometer sensor and a wireless transceiver. The collected data were utilized to train and test prediction models. The models were developed using machine learning algorithms: SVM, RF and ANN. The results of the experiments showed that measurements from the data collection module can yield a reliable predictor of output power. Furthermore, we found that the predictors work better when the regressors are combined with a classifier. The accuracy of the proposed prediction model suggests that it could be extremely useful in both locating optimal placement for wave energy harvesting plants and designing the shape of the buoys used by them.

  5. Evaluation of scientific output in Dentistry in Spanish Universities (United States)

    De la Flor-Martínez, María; Sánchez-Fernández, Elena; Abadal, Ernest; Cobo, Manuel-Jesús; Herrera-Viedma, Enrique


    Background The aim of this study was to assess the scientific output of Spanish universities that offer a bachelor’s degree in dentistry through the use of various bibliometric indicators. Material and Methods A total of 21 universities offered a bachelor’s degree in dentistry in academic year 2016-2017. The search for papers published by authors associated with these institutions was carried out using the selection of journals listed in the Journal Citation Reports (JCR) and the Web of Knowledge database for the period 1986-2017. On the basis of these data, we determined the output, the h-, g- and hg-indexes, the most productive authors, international collaborations, and the most relevant journals. Results Public universities obtained better results than private universities. The University of Valencia was ranked first, followed by the Complutense University of Madrid and the University of Granada. The most productive author was José Vicente Bagán, but the author with the highest h-index was Mariano Sanz and Manuel Toledado. The universities with the greatest output and highest citation rates had more international collaborations. The most developed fields in Spanish universities were Oral surgery, Oral medicine and Dental materials. The universities had different models of production. At universities such as Barcelona or Valencia, the production was focused on very few departments and authors. At the other extreme, the University of Granada had various sources of research and authors, which meant that its output and citation rate could increase more. Conclusions University faculties must provide suitable academic and research training, and therefore must be assessed using objective criteria and bibliometric tools. Although the number of university schools and faculties that teach dentistry has increased, and particularly the number of private universities, there is no correlation between their quality and output and the number of places offered on their

  6. An Improved Thermal Blooming Model for the Laser Performance Code Anchor (United States)


    nature, a laser increases or amplifies light waves after they have been generated by spontaneous emission. A laser generally consists of four... atmospheric particulates, and hydrometeors as they relate to layer transmission and path/background radiance at any wavelength” for the defined...Earth’s Atmosphere , 1990, vol. 1221 pp. 2-25. [15] A. M. Ngwele and M. R. Whiteley, “Scaling law modeling of thermal blooming in wave optics,” in

  7. Variance estimation of modal parameters from output-only and input/output subspace-based system identification


    Mellinger, Philippe; Döhler, Michael; Mevel, Laurent


    International audience; An important step in the operational modal analysis of a structure is to infer on its dynamic behavior through its modal parameters. They can be estimated by various modal identification algorithms that fit a theoretical model to measured data. When output-only data is available, i.e. measured responses of the structure, frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes can be identified assuming that ambient sources like wind or traffic excite the system sufficiently. When ...

  8. A study of potential output and output gap in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Adamec


    Full Text Available Analysis of economic cycle is of enormous importance for monitoring economic output and explaining price and wage inflation. It provides essential information for shaping economic and monetary policy of central authorities. Several methods are currently available to estimate potential output and output gap. In the current study, methods of Hodrick-Prescott filter and Cobb-Douglas production function were implemented to estimate potential output, which cannot be empirically observed. For the purpose of comparing the above methods, quarterly and annual time series of real GDP, labour and gross fixed capital starting in 1996 were used for estimation of the output gap. Relative contributions of labour, fixed capital formation and technology improvement factor towards growth of potential output were quantified for the studied series. The Cobb-Douglas production function appears to be superior to Hodrick-Prescott filter in providing quality estimates of potential output. Hodrick-Prescott filter allows estimation of potential output; nevertheless, it fails to identify components of cyclic behaviour of economic activity. Cobb-Douglas production function describes level of potential product assuming average utilization of production factors. A detailed analysis of components of economic growth in the observed period is provided.

  9. What shapes output of policy reform?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlsen, Kirsten

    This thesis deals with the factors shaping forest policy output during the stages implementation and bases its main message on empirical findings from the forestry sector in Ghana. Policy and institutional factors are important underlying causes for deforestation, especially in the tropics. Fores...

  10. Farm-Level Determinants of output Commercialization:

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    The analytical setup of the determinant factors included in this study has benefited from field observations and the various crop output market participation studies. (Pender and Dawit, 2007; Goitom, 2009; Tufa, et. al., 2014) conducted elsewhere in the country. However, it should be noted that other factors related to the ...


    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    iya beji

    This together with evidence from other related studies suggest that the agricultural sector bears about 75 per cent of the direct economic burden of malaria in. Nigeria. This translates to about 3 per cent of the real GDP that is lost annually in agricultural outputs to the malaria disease. This being the case, the government is.

  12. Output formatting in Apple-Soft Basic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navale, A.S.


    Personal computers are being used extensively in various fields. BASIC is a very popular and widely used language in personal computers. Apple computer is one of the popular machines used for scientific and engineering applications. Presenting output from computers in a neat and easy to read form is very important. Languages like FORTRAN have utility command 'FORMAT' which takes care of the formatting of the output in user-defined form. In some versions of BASIC a PRINT USING facility is available but it is not as powerful as the FORTRAN statement 'FORMAT'. Applesoft basic does not have even this PRINT USING command. Programmers have to write their own program segments to handle output formatting in Applesoft BASIC. Generally, such user written programs are of limited use as they cannot be used easily with other programs. A general purpose and easily transportable subroutine in Applesoft BASIC is presented here for handling output formatting in user-defined structure. The subroutine is nearly as powerful as the FORMAT statement in FORTRAN. It can also be used in other versions of BASIC with very little modifications. 3 tables, 4 refs. (author)

  13. Output performance analyses of solar array on stratospheric airship with thermal effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Jun; Lv, Mingyun; Tan, Dongjie; Zhu, Weiyu; Sun, Kangwen; Zhang, Yuanyuan


    Highlights: • A model investigating the output power of solar array is proposed. • The output power in the cruise condition with thermal effect is researched. • The effect of some factors on output performance is discussed in detail. • A suitable transmissivity of external layer is crucial in preliminary design step. - Abstract: Output performance analyses of the solar array are very critical for solving the energy problem of a long endurance stratospheric airship, and the solar cell efficiency is very sensitive to temperature of the solar cell. But the research about output performance of solar array with thermal effect is rare. This paper outlines a numerical model including the thermal model of airship and solar cells, the incident solar radiation model on the solar array, and the power output model. Based on this numerical model, a MATLAB computer program is developed. In the course of the investigation, the comparisons of the simulation results with and without considering thermal effect are reported. Furthermore, effects of the transmissivity of external encapsulation layer of solar array and wind speed on the thermal performance and output power of solar array are discussed in detail. The results indicate that this method is helpful for planning energy management.

  14. Jet and ultrasonic nebuliser output: use of a new method for direct measurement of aerosol output. (United States)

    Dennis, J H; Stenton, S C; Beach, J R; Avery, A J; Walters, E H; Hendrick, D J


    Output from jet nebulisers is calibrated traditionally by weighing them before and after nebulisation, but the assumption that the weight difference is a close measure of aerosol generation could be invalidated by the concomitant process of evaporation. A method has been developed for measuring aerosol output directly by using a solute (fluoride) tracer and aerosol impaction, and this has been compared with the traditional weight loss method for two Wright, six Turbo, and four Micro-Cirrus jet nebulisers and two Microinhaler ultrasonic nebulisers. The weight loss method overestimated true aerosol output for all jet nebulisers. The mean aerosol content, expressed as a percentage of the total weight loss, varied from as little as 15% for the Wright jet nebulisers to 54% (range 45-61%) for the Turbo and Micro-Cirrus jet nebulisers under the operating conditions used. In contrast, there was no discrepancy between weight loss and aerosol output for the ultrasonic nebulisers. These findings, along with evidence of both concentrating and cooling effects from jet nebulisation, confirm that total output from jet nebulisers contains two distinct fractions, vapour and aerosol. The vapour fraction, but not the aerosol fraction, was greatly influenced by reservoir temperature within the nebuliser; so the ratio of aerosol output to total weight loss varied considerably with temperature. It is concluded that weight loss is an inappropriate method of calibrating jet nebuliser aerosol output, and that this should be measured directly.

  15. (ajst) intersystem interference due to hydrometeor

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    at the three locations are used to predict interference levels with the probability of occurrence ranging from 1-10-3%. The attenuation of the signals due to rain was evaluated using the Power law relationship between attenuation and rain rate, while attenuation due to atmospheric gases was calculated using the ITU-R Rec.

  16. Use of DOE SGP Radars in Support of ASR Modeling Activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rutledge, Steven A. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)


    The objective of this work was to use the DOE Southern Great Plains (SGP) precipitation radars to investigate physical characteristics of clouds and precipitation, and use this knowledge in support of DOE ASR modeling efforts. The goal was to develop an integrated data set based on the SGP instrumentation to yield statistically robust fields to aid in the task of verifying simulated cloud dynamical and microphysical fields. For this effort we relied heavily on the ARM scanning precipitation radars, X-SAPR’s and C-SAPR, and also incorporating data from wind profilers, surface disdrometers and the nearby WSR-88D radar, KVNX. Initially we lent our expertise to quality controlling the data from the newly installed ARM radars, particularly the X-band polarimetric data, and additionally assessed automatic radial velocity unfolding algorithms developed by other ASR researchers. We focused our efforts on four cases from the MC3E field campaign in 2011 and developed a dataset including microphysical information derived from hydrometeor identification and kinematic analysis using multiple-Doppler retrieval techniques. This dataset became a PI product and was released to the community in 2014. This analysis was used to investigate the source of big drops (> 5 mm) observed with disdrometers at the surface. It was found that the big drops were coincident with the strongest updrafts, suggesting they resulted from the melting of large precipitation ice, likely hail. We teamed up with W-K Tao and T. Matsui to statistically compare radar-derived observational kinematics and microphysics to WRF model output for the 25 April 2011. Comparisons highlighted some areas where the model may need improvement, such as generating too much hail and big drops, as well as overly-strong updrafts and overly-weak of downdrafts.

  17. Comparison of using distribution-specific versus effective radius methods for hydrometeor single-scattering properties for all-sky microwave satellite radiance simulations with different microphysics parameterization schemes (United States)

    Sieron, Scott B.; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Zhang, Fuqing; Lu, Yinghui; Otkin, Jason A.


    The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) presently uses one look-up table (LUT) of cloud and precipitation single-scattering properties at microwave frequencies, with which any particle size distribution may interface via effective radius. This may produce scattering properties insufficiently representative of the model output if the microphysics parameterization scheme particle size distribution mismatches that assumed in constructing the LUT, such as one being exponential and the other monodisperse, or assuming different particle bulk densities. The CRTM also assigns a 5 μm effective radius to all nonprecipitating clouds, an additional inconsistency. Brightness temperatures are calculated from 3 h convection-permitting simulations of Hurricane Karl (2010) by the Weather Research and Forecasting model; each simulation uses one of three different microphysics schemes. For each microphysics scheme, a consistent cloud scattering LUT is constructed; the use of these LUTs produces differences in brightness temperature fields that would be better for analyzing and constraining microphysics schemes than using the CRTM LUT as-released. Other LUTs are constructed which contain one of the known microphysics inconsistencies with the CRTM LUT as-released, such as the bulk density of graupel, but are otherwise microphysics-consistent; differences in brightness temperature to using an entirely microphysics-consistent LUT further indicate the significance of that inconsistency. The CRTM LUT as-released produces higher brightness temperature than using microphysics-consistent LUTs. None of the LUTs can produce brightness temperatures that can match well to observations at all frequencies, which is likely due in part to the use of spherical particle scattering.

  18. Cardiac output measurement instruments controlled by microprocessors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spector, M.; Barritault, L.; Boeri, C.; Fauchet, M.; Gambini, D.; Vernejoul, P. de

    The nuclear medicine and biophysics laboratory of the Necker-Enfants malades University Hospital Centre has built a microprocessor controlled Cardiac flowmetre. The principle of the cardiac output measurement from a radiocardiogram is well established. After injection of a radioactive indicator upstream from the heart cavities the dilution curve is obtained by the use of a gamma-ray precordial detector. This curve normally displays two peaks due to passage of the indicator into the right and left sides of the heart respectively. The output is then obtained from the stewart Hamilton principle once recirculation is eliminated. The graphic method used for the calculation however is long and tedious. The decreasing fraction of the dilution curve is projected in logarithmic space in order to eliminate recirculation by determining the mean straight line from which the decreasing exponential is obtained. The principle of the use of microprocessors is explained (electronics, logics) [fr

  19. Computing multiple-output regression quantile regions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Paindaveine, D.; Šiman, Miroslav


    Roč. 56, č. 4 (2012), s. 840-853 ISSN 0167-9473 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M06047 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : halfspace depth * multiple -output regression * parametric linear programming * quantile regression Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.304, year: 2012

  20. Galois connection for multiple-output operations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jeřábek, Emil


    Roč. 79 (2018), č. článku 17. ISSN 0002-5240 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 339691 - FEALORA Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : clones and coclones * Galois connection * multiple-output operations Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Pure mathematics Impact factor: 0.625, year: 2016 article /10.1007%2Fs00012-018-0499-7

  1. Galois connection for multiple-output operations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jeřábek, Emil


    Roč. 79 (2018), č. článku 17. ISSN 0002-5240 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 339691 - FEALORA Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : clones and coclones * Galois connection * multiple-output operations Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Pure mathematics Impact factor: 0.625, year: 2016

  2. Comparison of cardiac output measurement techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Espersen, K; Jensen, E W; Rosenborg, D


    and CR, respectively, and TD were 2.5 +/- 2.2 and 2.6 +/- 1.6 l/min. The overall agreement between DOP and CR was 0.1 +/- 1.6 l/min. In conclusion, TD overestimated cardiac output compared to the other techniques and the poor agreement has to be taken into consideration especially in measures of low...

  3. Increasing Efficiency by Maximizing Electrical Output (United States)


    turbines whose efficiency decreases with system size driving up costs . The cost in $/W for our system is substantially less than other competitive...basis. That forecast of a $100,000 sales price is based on a detailed analysis of anticipated bill of materials costs when manufacturing and...27-07-2016 Cost and Performance Report 04/01/2012 - 07/01/2016 Increasing Efficiency by Maximizing Electrical Output Ted Eveleth, COO, Ener-G-Rotors

  4. Defence Output Measures: An Economics Perspective (United States)


    is even more challenging. Economic theory simply asserts the concept of defence output without exploring its definition and multi-product nature...It also protects national interests, including independence and ‘appropriate sovereignty’ (e.g. protecting a nation’s interests in a globalised ...of success in delivering protection. “There is no definitive way of knowing what might have happened, but did not happen, because of the activities

  5. Infinite cloud model of electrification by the precipitation mechanism in the pressence of high rates of ion generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spangler, J.D.; Rosenkilde, C.E.


    We have extended a simple, infinite-cloud, precipitation-mechanism model of thundercloud electrification to include effects due to the presence of radioactive aerosol particles. These effects involve ion generation, currents due to motions of ions and charged aerosol particles, and collection of ions and aerosol particles by hydrometeors and cloud droplets. Our conclusion is that an ion-pair generation rate G equal to or greater than 10 12 m -3 s -1 will prevent significant electric-field growth

  6. A Statistical Representation of Pyrotechnic Igniter Output (United States)

    Guo, Shuyue; Cooper, Marcia


    The output of simplified pyrotechnic igniters for research investigations is statistically characterized by monitoring the post-ignition external flow field with Schlieren imaging. Unique to this work is a detailed quantification of all measurable manufacturing parameters (e.g., bridgewire length, charge cavity dimensions, powder bed density) and associated shock-motion variability in the tested igniters. To demonstrate experimental precision of the recorded Schlieren images and developed image processing methodologies, commercial exploding bridgewires using wires of different parameters were tested. Finally, a statistically-significant population of manufactured igniters were tested within the Schlieren arrangement resulting in a characterization of the nominal output. Comparisons between the variances measured throughout the manufacturing processes and the calculated output variance provide insight into the critical device phenomena that dominate performance. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's NNSA under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  7. The output mode cleaner of GEO 600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prijatelj, M; Grote, H; Leong, J; Affeldt, C; Lück, H; Slutsky, J; Wittel, H; Strain, K; Danzmann, K; Degallaix, J; Hild, S


    The German-British interferometric gravitational wave detector GEO 600 is currently undergoing upgrades within the GEO-HF upgrade program. The goal of this program is to enhance the sensitivity of GEO 600, in particular at frequencies above 500 Hz. At these frequencies, the detector is limited by shot noise. An important element of the upgrade is the implementation of an output mode cleaner (OMC). This filtering cavity suppresses higher order spatial and temporal modes in the interferometer's output beam, thereby reducing the shot noise and enhancing sensitivity. Fully automated lock acquisition for the OMC was developed in order to ensure a high duty cycle of GEO 600. To maintain optimum sensitivity, the resonance condition of the OMC must be matched to the output beam from the interferometer. This requires continuous control of the resonance frequency of the OMC to the light, and alignment of the beam to the OMC. We describe the design and implementation of the OMC with special attention to the control techniques employed. We present results from the experience gained during the S6/VSR3 science run. Furthermore, we describe an upper limit measurement of the internal displacement noise of a piezoelectric actuator. (paper)

  8. Solar Power Station Output Inverter Control Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bauer


    Full Text Available The photovoltaic applications spreads in these days fast, therefore they also undergo great development. Because the amount of the energy obtained from the panel depends on the surrounding conditions, as intensity of the sun exposure or the temperature of the solar array, the converter must be connected to the panel output. The Solar system equipped with inverter can supply small loads like notebooks, mobile chargers etc. in the places where the supplying network is not present. Or the system can be used as a generator and it shall deliver energy to the supply network. Each type of the application has different requirements on the converter and its control algorithm. But for all of them the one thing is common – the maximal efficiency. The paper focuses on design and simulation of the low power inverter that acts as output part of the whole converter. In the paper the design of the control algorithm of the inverter for both types of inverter application – for islanding mode and for operation on the supply grid – is discussed. Attention is also paid to the design of the output filter that should reduce negative side effects of the converter on the supply network.

  9. Characterizing detonator output using dynamic witness plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, Michael John; Adrian, Ronald J.


    A sub-microsecond, time-resolved micro-particle-image velocimetry (PIV) system is developed to investigate the output of explosive detonators. Detonator output is directed into a transparent solid that serves as a dynamic witness plate and instantaneous shock and material velocities are measured in a two-dimensional plane cutting through the shock wave as it propagates through the solid. For the case of unloaded initiators (e.g. exploding bridge wires, exploding foil initiators, etc.) the witness plate serves as a surrogate for the explosive material that would normally be detonated. The velocity-field measurements quantify the velocity of the shocked material and visualize the geometry of the shocked region. Furthermore, the time-evolution of the velocity-field can be measured at intervals as small as 10 ns using the PIV system. Current experimental results of unloaded exploding bridge wire output in polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) witness plates demonstrate 20 MHz velocity-field sampling just 300 ns after initiation of the wire.

  10. Risk and Uncertainty Analysis Procedures for the Evaluation of Environmental Outputs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yoe, Charles


    .... To estimate existing and future environmental outputs, many U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' projects rely on habitat evaluation models like the Habitat Evaluation Procedures (REP) developed by the U.S...

  11. The economic impacts of Lake States forestry: an input-output study. (United States)

    Larry Pedersen; Daniel E. Chappelle; David C. Lothner


    The report describes 1985 and 1995 levels of forest-related economic activity in the three-state area of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and their impacts on other economic sectors based on a regional input-output model.

  12. On the use of different cloud resolving models to generate cloud-radiation databases for passive-microwave precipitation retrieval from space (United States)

    Schipa, I.; Casella, D.; Formenton, M.; Miglietta, M. M.; Mugnai, A.; Sanò, P.; Smith, E. A.; Tripoli, G. J.


    Mesoscale cloud resolving models (CRMs) are often used to generate descriptions of the microphysical properties of precipitating clouds for the purpose of guiding precipitation retrieval algorithms designed for satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers. However, CRMs were not originally designed for that purpose. Notably, individual CRMs have adopted different bulk microphysical schemes to optimize the dynamical evolution of storms and accumulated rainfall, rather than optimizing for simulations of radiative properties -- which are greatly affected by the microphysical details and vertical distributions of liquid and frozen hydrometeors. Thus, in principle, the simulated upwelling passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures (TBs) and associated precipitation retrievals generated by means of different CRMs with different microphysical parameterizations may be significantly different -- even when the different CRMs prognostically adhere to the main dynamical and precipitation characteristics of the simulated storms. We investigate this issue for two different mesoscale models -- the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (NMS) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model which has been developed within a collaborative partnership among several research and operational U.S. institutions. Specifically, these two models have been used to simulate several heavy storms that occurred over Italy, and then the model outputs have been used to calculate the upwelling PMW TBs -- and thus to generate the corresponding cloud-radiation databases (CRDs) that can be utilized for retrieving precipitation in conjunction with observations from satellite-borne microwave radiometers. Here, we intercompare the NMS- and WRF-generated CRDs in order to provide an indication of the expected uncertainties in CRM-based precipitation retrievals due to differing microphysical parameterizations.

  13. Extreme inputs/outputs for multiple input multiple output linear systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smallwood, David Ora


    A linear structure is excited at multiple points with a stationary normal random process. The response of the structure is measured at multiple outputs. If the auto spectral densities of the inputs are specified, the phase relationships between the inputs are derived that will minimize or maximize the trace of the auto spectral density matrix of the outputs. If the autospectral densities of the outputs are specified, the phase relationships between the outputs that will minimize or maximize the trace of the input auto spectral density matrix are derived. It is shown that other phase relationships and ordinary coherence less than one will result in a trace intermediate between these extremes. Least favorable response and some classes of critical response are special cases of the development. It is shown that the derivation for stationary random waveforms can also be applied to nonstationary random, transients, and deterministic waveforms.

  14. Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yanting; He, Yong; Su, Yan; Shu, Lianjie


    Highlights: • Suggests a nonparametric model based on MARS for output power prediction. • Compare the MARS model with a wide variety of prediction models. • Show that the MARS model is able to provide an overall good performance in both the training and testing stages. - Abstract: Both linear and nonlinear models have been proposed for forecasting the power output of photovoltaic systems. Linear models are simple to implement but less flexible. Due to the stochastic nature of the power output of PV systems, nonlinear models tend to provide better forecast than linear models. Motivated by this, this paper suggests a fairly simple nonlinear regression model known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), as an alternative to forecasting of solar power output. The MARS model is a data-driven modeling approach without any assumption about the relationship between the power output and predictors. It maintains simplicity of the classical multiple linear regression (MLR) model while possessing the capability of handling nonlinearity. It is simpler in format than other nonlinear models such as ANN, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), classification and regression tree (CART), and support vector machine (SVM). The MARS model was applied on the daily output of a grid-connected 2.1 kW PV system to provide the 1-day-ahead mean daily forecast of the power output. The comparisons with a wide variety of forecast models show that the MARS model is able to provide reliable forecast performance.

  15. Correlation between renew able energy source's energy output and load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, G.H.M.; El-Zeftawy, A.A.


    The common problem to all renew energy sources (RESs) is the mismatch between their energy output and load demand. In remote areas, the solution of this problem is in general employing a small diesel-generator or a storage battery. But, the storage battery is a major cost element of RESs and small diesel-generator is unreliable and costly. Therefore, a proposed technique has been introduced in this work to determine correlation between the energy output of wind energy systems (WES) and isolated loads. solar photovoltaic power system (PVS) and two of energy storage facilities are used here for this correlation. The proposed technique includes also two models for optimizing the generation and costs of WES accompanied with PVS, storage battery and water storage (reservoir) to accommodate an isolated load. The proposed technique is applied with the dynamic programming to coordinate the energy output of a WES with residential and pumping load in remote area of egypt. The results of this application reveal that minimization of both capacity of the storage battery and the whole power system cost are obtained. 4 figs

  16. Jet and ultrasonic nebuliser output: use of a new method for direct measurement of aerosol output.


    Dennis, J H; Stenton, S C; Beach, J R; Avery, A J; Walters, E H; Hendrick, D J


    Output from jet nebulisers is calibrated traditionally by weighing them before and after nebulisation, but the assumption that the weight difference is a close measure of aerosol generation could be invalidated by the concomitant process of evaporation. A method has been developed for measuring aerosol output directly by using a solute (fluoride) tracer and aerosol impaction, and this has been compared with the traditional weight loss method for two Wright, six Turbo, and four Micro-Cirrus je...

  17. A Monte Carlo Study on Multiple Output Stochastic Frontiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Géraldine; Henningsen, Arne; Jensen, Uwe

    In the estimation of multiple output technologies in a primal approach, the main question is how to handle the multiple outputs. Often an output distance function is used, where the classical approach is to exploit its homogeneity property by selecting one output quantity as the dependent variable...

  18. Influence of Special Weather on Output of PV System (United States)

    Zhang, Zele


    The output of PV system is affected by different environmental factors, therefore, it is important to study the output of PV system under different environmental conditions. Through collecting data on the spot, collecting the output of photovoltaic panels under special weather conditions, and comparing the collected data, the output characteristics of the photovoltaic panels under different weather conditions are obtained. The influence of weather factors such as temperature, humidity and irradiance on the output of photovoltaic panels was investigated.

  19. Water resources and environmental input-output analysis and its key study issues: a review (United States)

    YANG, Z.; Xu, X.


    Used to study the material and energy flow in socioeconomic system, Input-Output Analysis(IOA) had been an effective analysis tool since its appearance. The research fields of Input-Output Analysis were increasingly expanded and studied in depth with the development of fundamental theory. In this paper, starting with introduction of theory development, the water resources input-output analysis and environmental input-output analysis had been specifically reviewed, and two key study issues mentioned as well. Input-Occupancy-Output Analysis and Grey Input-Output Analysis whose proposal and development were introduced firstly could be regard as the effective complements of traditional IOA theory. Because of the hypotheses of homogeneity, stability and proportionality, Input-Occupancy-Output Analysis and Grey Input-Output Analysis always had been restricted in practical application inevitably. In the applied study aspect, with investigation of abundant literatures, research of water resources input-output analysis and environmental input-output analysis had been comprehensively reviewed and analyzed. The regional water resources flow between different economic sectors had been systematically analyzed and stated, and several types of environmental input-output analysis models combined with other effective analysis tools concluded. In two perspectives in terms of external and inland aspect, the development of water resources and environmental input-output analysis model had been explained, and several typical study cases in recent years listed respectively. By the aid of sufficient literature analysis, the internal development tendency and study hotspot had also been summarized. In recent years, Chinese literatures reporting water resources consumption analysis and virtue water study had occupied a large share. Water resources consumption analysis had always been the emphasis of inland water resources IOA. Virtue water study had been considered as the new hotspot of

  20. SPRINT spray intercooling augments LM6000 output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, David


    By injecting water between the low pressure and high pressure compressors of an aeroderivative gas turbine, GE-IAD engineers have demonstrated that a 9 per cent increase in output accompanied by reduced life cycle costs can be achieved. Designated the SPRINT system, uprated LM 6000 units with augmented efficiency have been introduced to the market. The first two production units, both supplied to Southern Electric Power Generation in England for mid-merit independent power generation plants at Chickerell in Dorset and Burghfield in Berkshire, have each clocked in excess of 500 operating hours since start-up in early April 1998. MPS visited the Chickerell installation in late July 1998. (UK)