WorldWideScience

Sample records for model lsm hydrometeorological

  1. Hydrometeorological network for flood monitoring and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis D.; Lykoudis, Spyros; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Christofides, Antonis; Karavokiros, George; Kappos, Nikos; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2013-08-01

    Due to its highly fragmented geomorphology, Greece comprises hundreds of small- to medium-size hydrological basins, in which often the terrain is fairly steep and the streamflow regime ephemeral. These are typically affected by flash floods, occasionally causing severe damages. Yet, the vast majority of them lack flow-gauging infrastructure providing systematic hydrometric data at fine time scales. This has obvious impacts on the quality and reliability of flood studies, which typically use simplistic approaches for ungauged basins that do not consider local peculiarities in sufficient detail. In order to provide a consistent framework for flood design and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk -a key issue of the 2007/60/EC Directive- it is essential to improve the monitoring infrastructures by taking advantage of modern technologies for remote control and data management. In this context and in the research project DEUCALION, we have recently installed and are operating, in four pilot river basins, a telemetry-based hydro-meteorological network that comprises automatic stations and is linked to and supported by relevant software. The hydrometric stations measure stage, using 50-kHz ultrasonic pulses or piezometric sensors, or both stage (piezometric) and velocity via acoustic Doppler radar; all measurements are being temperature-corrected. The meteorological stations record air temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. Data transfer is made via GPRS or mobile telephony modems. The monitoring network is supported by a web-based application for storage, visualization and management of geographical and hydro-meteorological data (ENHYDRIS), a software tool for data analysis and processing (HYDROGNOMON), as well as an advanced model for flood simulation (HYDROGEIOS). The recorded hydro-meteorological observations are accessible over the Internet through the www-application. The system is operational and its

  2. What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Alonso

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Least-Squares Monte Carlo model (LSM model has emerged as the derivative valuation technique with the greatest impact in current practice. As with other options valuation models, the LSM algorithm was initially posited in the field of financial derivatives and its extension to the realm of real options requires considering certain questions which might hinder understanding of the algorithm and which the present paper seeks to address. The implementation of the LSM model combines Monte Carlo simulation, dynamic programming and statistical regression in a flexible procedure suitable for application to valuing nearly all types of corporate investments. The goal of this paper is to show how the LSM algorithm is applied in the context of a corporate investment, thus contributing to the understanding of the principles of its operation.

  3. Land Surface Model (LSM 1.0) for Ecological, Hydrological, Atmospheric Studies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NCAR LSM 1.0 is a land surface model developed to examine biogeophysical and biogeochemical land-atmosphere interactions, especially the effects of land surfaces...

  4. Validation of limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring - is a separate validation group required?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proost, J. H.

    Objective: Limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring are usually validated in a separate group of patients, according to published guidelines. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validation of LSM by comparing independent validation with cross-validation

  5. Box photosynthesis modeling results for WRF/CMAQ LSM

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Box Photosynthesis model simulations for latent heat and ozone at 6 different FLUXNET sites. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Ran, L., J....

  6. Incorporating Sentinel-2-like remote sensing products in the hydrometeorological modelling over an agricultural area in south west France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivalland, Vincent; Gascoin, Simon; Etchanchu, Jordi; Coustau, Mathieu; Cros, Jérôme; Tallec, Tiphaine

    2016-04-01

    The Sentinel-2 mission will enable to monitor the land cover and the vegetation phenology at high-resolution (HR) every 5 days. However, current Land Surface Models (LSM) typically use land cover and vegetation parameters derived from previous low to mid resolution satellite missions. Here we studied the effect of introducing Sentinel-2-like data in the simulation of the land surface energy and water fluxes in a region dominated by cropland. Simulations were performed with the ISBA-SURFEX LSM, which is used in the operational hydrometeorological chain of Meteo-France for hydrological forecasts and drought monitoring. By default, SURFEX vegetation land surface parameters and temporal evolution are from the ECOCLIMAP II European database mostly derived from MODIS products at 1 km resolution. The model was applied to an experimental area of 30 km by 30 km in south west France. In this area the resolution of ECOCLIMAP is coarser than the typical size of a crop field. This means that several crop types can be mixed in a pixel. In addition ECOCLIMAP provides a climatology of the vegetation phenology and thus does not account for the interannual effects of the climate and land management on the crop growth. In this work, we used a series of 26 Formosat-2 images at 8-m resolution acquired in 2006. From this dataset, we derived a land cover map and a leaf area index map (LAI) at each date, which were substituted to the ECOCLIMAP land cover map and the LAI maps. The model output water and energy fluxes were compared to a standard simulation using ECOCLIMAP only and to in situ measurements of soil moisture, latent and sensible heat fluxes. The results show that the introduction of the HR products improved the timing of the evapotranspiration. The impact was the most visible on the crops having a growing season in summer (maize, sunflower), because the growth period is more sensitive to the climate.

  7. Optimal moment determination in POME-copula based hydrometeorological dependence modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dengfeng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi

    2017-07-01

    Copula has been commonly applied in multivariate modelling in various fields where marginal distribution inference is a key element. To develop a flexible, unbiased mathematical inference framework in hydrometeorological multivariate applications, the principle of maximum entropy (POME) is being increasingly coupled with copula. However, in previous POME-based studies, determination of optimal moment constraints has generally not been considered. The main contribution of this study is the determination of optimal moments for POME for developing a coupled optimal moment-POME-copula framework to model hydrometeorological multivariate events. In this framework, margins (marginals, or marginal distributions) are derived with the use of POME, subject to optimal moment constraints. Then, various candidate copulas are constructed according to the derived margins, and finally the most probable one is determined, based on goodness-of-fit statistics. This optimal moment-POME-copula framework is applied to model the dependence patterns of three types of hydrometeorological events: (i) single-site streamflow-water level; (ii) multi-site streamflow; and (iii) multi-site precipitation, with data collected from Yichang and Hankou in the Yangtze River basin, China. Results indicate that the optimal-moment POME is more accurate in margin fitting and the corresponding copulas reflect a good statistical performance in correlation simulation. Also, the derived copulas, capturing more patterns which traditional correlation coefficients cannot reflect, provide an efficient way in other applied scenarios concerning hydrometeorological multivariate modelling.

  8. A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal conductance model for meteorology and air quality modeling with WRF/CMAQ PX LSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorol...

  9. Mathematical Modelling of Thermal Process to Aquatic Environment with Different Hydrometeorological Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alibek Issakhov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the mathematical model of the thermal process from thermal power plant to aquatic environment of the reservoir-cooler, which is located in the Pavlodar region, 17 Km to the north-east of Ekibastuz town. The thermal process in reservoir-cooler with different hydrometeorological conditions is considered, which is solved by three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and temperature equation for an incompressible flow in a stratified medium. A numerical method based on the projection method, divides the problem into three stages. At the first stage, it is assumed that the transfer of momentum occurs only by convection and diffusion. Intermediate velocity field is solved by fractional steps method. At the second stage, three-dimensional Poisson equation is solved by the Fourier method in combination with tridiagonal matrix method (Thomas algorithm. Finally, at the third stage, it is expected that the transfer is only due to the pressure gradient. Numerical method determines the basic laws of the hydrothermal processes that qualitatively and quantitatively are approximated depending on different hydrometeorological conditions.

  10. Developing the Model for the GIS Applications in National Hydro-Meteorological Service in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubacka, D.; Barszczynska, M.; Madej, P.

    2003-04-01

    historic data access. These layers are also sufficient for a hydro-meteorological situation visualisations suitable for the country and division maps. The existing data and thematic layers were used to develop an Internet service providing the information concerning the hydro-meteorological posts. It also allowed presenting the results of the numerical weather forecast model in the Internet. It is planned to perform the visualisation of the hydro-meteorological phenomena in the monthly IMWM bulletin.

  11. An Integrated High Resolution Hydrometeorological Modeling Testbed using LIS and WRF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Eastman, Joseph L.; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2007-01-01

    Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.

  12. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Picciotti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5

  13. Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Rincón, J. P.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

    2015-07-01

    This investigation aims to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty within a cascade modelling approach to flood prediction. The methodology was comprised of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a 2-D hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty evaluation was carried out at the meteorological and hydrological levels of the model chain, which enabled the investigation of how errors that originated in the rainfall prediction interact at a catchment level and propagate to an estimated inundation area and depth. For this, a hindcast scenario is utilised removing non-behavioural ensemble members at each stage, based on the fit with observed data. At the hydrodynamic level, an uncertainty assessment was not incorporated; instead, the model was setup following guidelines for the best possible representation of the case study. The selected extreme event corresponds to a flood that took place in the southeast of Mexico during November 2009, for which field data (e.g. rain gauges; discharge) and satellite imagery were available. Uncertainty in the meteorological model was estimated by means of a multi-physics ensemble technique, which is designed to represent errors from our limited knowledge of the processes generating precipitation. In the hydrological model, a multi-response validation was implemented through the definition of six sets of plausible parameters from past flood events. Precipitation fields from the meteorological model were employed as input in a distributed hydrological model, and resulting flood hydrographs were used as forcing conditions in the 2-D hydrodynamic model. The evolution of skill within the model cascade shows a complex aggregation of errors between models, suggesting that in valley-filling events hydro-meteorological uncertainty has a larger effect on inundation depths than that observed in estimated flood inundation extents.

  14. Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2011-01-01

    The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling

  15. Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Reichle, Rolf H.

    2009-01-01

    The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by

  16. Toward Improving Predictability of Extreme Hydrometeorological Events: the Use of Multi-scale Climate Modeling in the Northern High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Arriola, F.; Torres-Alavez, J.; Mohamad Abadi, A.; Walko, R. L.

    2014-12-01

    Our goal is to investigate possible sources of predictability of hydrometeorological extreme events in the Northern High Plains. Hydrometeorological extreme events are considered the most costly natural phenomena. Water deficits and surpluses highlight how the water-climate interdependence becomes crucial in areas where single activities drive economies such as Agriculture in the NHP. Nonetheless we recognize the Water-Climate interdependence and the regulatory role that human activities play, we still grapple to identify what sources of predictability could be added to flood and drought forecasts. To identify the benefit of multi-scale climate modeling and the role of initial conditions on flood and drought predictability on the NHP, we use the Ocean Land Atmospheric Model (OLAM). OLAM is characterized by a dynamic core with a global geodesic grid with hexagonal (and variably refined) mesh cells and a finite volume discretization of the full compressible Navier Stokes equations, a cut-grid cell method for topography (that reduces error in computational gradient computation and anomalous vertical dispersion). Our hypothesis is that wet conditions will drive OLAM's simulations of precipitation to wetter conditions affecting both flood forecast and drought forecast. To test this hypothesis we simulate precipitation during identified historical flood events followed by drought events in the NHP (i.e. 2011-2012 years). We initialized OLAM with CFS-data 1-10 days previous to a flooding event (as initial conditions) to explore (1) short-term and high-resolution and (2) long-term and coarse-resolution simulations of flood and drought events, respectively. While floods are assessed during a maximum of 15-days refined-mesh simulations, drought is evaluated during the following 15 months. Simulated precipitation will be compared with the Sub-continental Observation Dataset, a gridded 1/16th degree resolution data obtained from climatological stations in Canada, US, and

  17. Hydrometeorological Automated Data System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Office of Hydrologic Development of the National Weather Service operates HADS, the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System. This data set contains the last 48...

  18. A hydro-meteorological model chain to assess the influence of natural variability and impacts of climate change on extreme events and propose optimal water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Trentini, F.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Schmid, F. J.; Ludwig, R.

    2017-12-01

    The ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) focuses on the effects of climate change on hydro-meteorological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. Therefore, a hydro-meteorological model chain is applied. It employs high performance computing capacity of the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre facility SuperMUC to dynamically downscale 50 members of the Global Circulation Model CanESM2 over European and Eastern North American domains using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (RCM) CRCM5. Over Europe, the unique single model ensemble is conjointly analyzed with the latest information provided through the CORDEX-initiative, to better assess the influence of natural climate variability and climatic change in the dynamics of extreme events. Furthermore, these 50 members of a single RCM will enhance extreme value statistics (extreme return periods) by exploiting the available 1500 model years for the reference period from 1981 to 2010. Hence, the RCM output is applied to drive the process based, fully distributed, and deterministic hydrological model WaSiM in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. WaSiM and the large ensemble are further used to derive a variety of hydro-meteorological patterns leading to severe flood events. A tool for virtual perfect prediction shall provide a combination of optimal lead time and management strategy to mitigate certain flood events following these patterns.

  19. Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hally

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The e-Science environment developed in the framework of the EU-funded DRIHM project was used to demonstrate its ability to provide relevant, meaningful hydrometeorological forecasts. This was illustrated for the tragic case of 4 November 2011, when Genoa, Italy, was flooded as the result of heavy, convective precipitation that inundated the Bisagno catchment. The Meteorological Model Bridge (MMB, an innovative software component developed within the DRIHM project for the interoperability of meteorological and hydrological models, is a key component of the DRIHM e-Science environment. The MMB allowed three different rainfall-discharge models (DRiFt, RIBS and HBV to be driven by four mesoscale limited-area atmospheric models (WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH and AROME and a downscaling algorithm (RainFARM in a seamless fashion. In addition to this multi-model configuration, some of the models were run in probabilistic mode, thus giving a comprehensive account of modelling errors and a very large amount of likely hydrometeorological scenarios (> 1500. The multi-model approach proved to be necessary because, whilst various aspects of the event were successfully simulated by different models, none of the models reproduced all of these aspects correctly. It was shown that the resulting set of simulations helped identify key atmospheric processes responsible for the large rainfall accumulations over the Bisagno basin. The DRIHM e-Science environment facilitated an evaluation of the sensitivity to atmospheric and hydrological modelling errors. This showed that both had a significant impact on predicted discharges, the former being larger than the latter. Finally, the usefulness of the set of hydrometeorological simulations was assessed from a flash flood early-warning perspective.

  20. Ensemble Analysis of Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Distributed Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Koren, V.

    2008-12-01

    A prototype 4DVAR (four-dimensional variational) data assimilator for gridded Sacramento soil-moisture accounting and kinematic-wave routing models in the Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) has been developed. The prototype assimilates streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data and adjusts gridded precipitation and climatological potential evaporation data to reduce uncertainty in the model initial conditions for improved monitoring and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture at the outlet and interior locations within the catchment. Due to large degrees of freedom involved, data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is complex. To understand and assess sensitivity of the performance of DA to uncertainties in the model initial conditions and in the data, two synthetic experiments have been carried out in an ensemble framework. Results from the synthetic experiments shed much light on the potential and limitations with DA into distributed models. For initial real-world assessment, the prototype DA has also been applied to the headwater basin at Eldon near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. We present these results and describe the next steps.

  1. Spectral Behavior of a Linearized Land-Atmosphere Model: Applications to Hydrometeorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentine, P.; Entekhabi, D.; Polcher, J.

    2008-12-01

    The present study develops an improved version of the linearized land-atmosphere model first introduced by Lettau (1951). This model is used to investigate the spectral response of land-surface variables to a daily forcing of incoming radiation at the land-surface. An analytical solution of the problem is found in the form of temporal Fourier series and gives the atmospheric boundary-layer and soil profiles of state variables (potential temperature, specific humidity, sensible and latent heat fluxes). Moreover the spectral dependency of surface variables is expressed as function of land-surface parameters (friction velocity, vegetation height, aerodynamic resistance, stomatal conductance). This original approach has several advantages: First, the model only requires little data to work and perform well: only time series of incoming radiation at the land-surface, mean specific humidity and temperature at any given height are required. These inputs being widely available over the globe, the model can easily be run and tested under various conditions. The model will also help analysing the diurnal shape and frequency dependency of surface variables and soil-ABL profiles. In particular, a strong emphasis is being placed on the explanation and prediction of Evaporative Fraction (EF) and Bowen Ratio diurnal shapes. EF is shown to remain a diurnal constant under restricting conditions: fair and dry weather, with strong solar radiation and no clouds. Moreover, the EF pseudo-constancy value is found and given as function of surface parameters, such as aerodynamic resistance and stomatal conductance. Then, application of the model for the conception of remote-sensing tools, according to the temporal resolution of the sensor, will also be discussed. Finally, possible extensions and improvement of the model will be discussed.

  2. Modeling detailed hydro-meteorological surfaces and runoff response in large diverse watersheds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byrne, J.; Kienzle, S.W.; MacDonald, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    An understanding of local variability in climatic conditions over complex terrain is imperative to making accurate assessments of impacts from climate change on fresh water ecosystems (Daly, 2006). The derivation of representative spatial data in diverse environments poses a significant challenge to the modelling community. This presentation describes the current status of a long term ongoing hydro-climate model development program. We are developing a gridded hydroclimate dataset for diverse watersheds using SimGrid (Larson, 2008; Lapp et al., 2005; Sheppard, 1996), a model that applies the Mountain Climate Model (MTCLIM; Hungerford et al., 1989) to simulate hydro-climatic conditions over diverse terrain. The model uses GIS based terrain categories (TC) classified by slope, aspect, elevation, and soil water storage. SimGrid provides daily estimates of solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, snowpack and soil water storage over space. Earlier versions of the model have been applied in the St. Mary (Larson, 2008) and upper Oldman basins (Lapp et al., 2005), giving realistic estimates of hydro-climatic variables. The current study demonstrates improvements to the estimation of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, soil water storage and runoff from the basin. Soil water storage data for the upper drainage were derived with GIS and included in SimGrid to estimate soil water flux over the time period. These changes help improve the estimation of spatial climatic variability over the basin while accounting for topographical influence. In further work we will apply spatial hydro-climatic surfaces from the SimGrid model to assess the hydrologic response to environmental change for watersheds in Canada and beyond. (author)

  3. Spatiotemporal variability of water and energy fluxes: TERENO- prealpine hydrometeorological data analysis and inverse modeling with GEOtop and PEST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soltani, M.; Kunstmann, H.; Laux, P.; Mauder, M.

    2016-12-01

    In mountainous and prealpine regions echohydrological processes exhibit rapid changes within short distances due to the complex orography and strong elevation gradients. Water- and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere are crucial drivers for nearly all ecosystem processes. The aim of this research is to analyze the variability of surface water- and energy fluxes by both comprehensive observational hydrometeorological data analysis and process-based high resolution hydrological modeling for a mountainous and prealpine region in Germany. We particularly focus on the closure of the observed energy balance and on the added value of energy flux observations for parameter estimation in our hydrological model (GEOtop) by inverse modeling using PEST. Our study area is the catchment of the river Rott (55 km2), being part of the TERENO prealpine observatory in Southern Germany, and we focus particularly on the observations during the summer episode May to July 2013. We present the coupling of GEOtop and the parameter estimation tool PEST, which is based on the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg method, a gradient-based nonlinear parameter estimation algorithm. Estimation of the surface energy partitioning during the data analysis process revealed that the latent heat flux was considered as the main consumer of available energy. The relative imbalance was largest during nocturnal periods. An energy imbalance was observed at the eddy-covariance site Fendt due to either underestimated turbulent fluxes or overestimated available energy. The calculation of the simulated energy and water balances for the entire catchment indicated that 78% of net radiation leaves the catchment as latent heat flux, 17% as sensible heat, and 5% enters the soil in the form of soil heat flux. 45% of the catchment aggregated precipitation leaves the catchment as discharge and 55% as evaporation. Using the developed GEOtop-PEST interface, the hydrological model is calibrated by comparing

  4. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.

    2017-02-15

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  5. Improved cyberinfrastructure for integrated hydrometeorological predictions within the fully-coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    gochis, David; hooper, Rick; parodi, Antonio; Jha, Shantenu; Yu, Wei; Zaslavsky, Ilya; Ganapati, Dinesh

    2014-05-01

    The community WRF-Hydro system is currently being used in a variety of flood prediction and regional hydroclimate impacts assessment applications around the world. Despite its increasingly wide use certain cyberinfrastructure bottlenecks exist in the setup, execution and post-processing of WRF-Hydro model runs. These bottlenecks result in wasted time, labor, data transfer bandwidth and computational resource use. Appropriate development and use of cyberinfrastructure to setup and manage WRF-Hydro modeling applications will streamline the entire workflow of hydrologic model predictions. This talk will present recent advances in the development and use of new open-source cyberinfrastructure tools for the WRF-Hydro architecture. These tools include new web-accessible pre-processing applications, supercomputer job management applications and automated verification and visualization applications. The tools will be described successively and then demonstrated in a set of flash flood use cases for recent destructive flood events in the U.S. and in Europe. Throughout, an emphasis on the implementation and use of community data standards for data exchange is made.

  6. Ecosystem functioning is enveloped by hydrometeorological variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, Christoforos; Mahecha, Miguel D; Frank, David C; Babst, Flurin; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2017-09-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem processes, and the associated vegetation carbon dynamics, respond differently to hydrometeorological variability across timescales, and so does our scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Long-term variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is not yet well constrained and the resulting climate-biosphere feedbacks are highly uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive overview of hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability from hourly to decadal timescales integrating multiple in situ and remote-sensing datasets characterizing extra-tropical forest sites. We find that ecosystem variability at all sites is confined within a hydrometeorological envelope across sites and timescales. Furthermore, ecosystem variability demonstrates long-term persistence, highlighting ecological memory and slow ecosystem recovery rates after disturbances. However, simulation results with state-of-the-art process-based models do not reflect this long-term persistent behaviour in ecosystem functioning. Accordingly, we develop a cross-time-scale stochastic framework that captures hydrometeorological and ecosystem variability. Our analysis offers a perspective for terrestrial ecosystem modelling and paves the way for new model-data integration opportunities in Earth system sciences.

  7. LSM-YSZ Reactions in Different Atmospheres

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Ming; Liu, Yi-Lin; Hagen, Anke

    2009-01-01

    -powder reaction. LSM reacts differently with YSZ in different atmospheres. In air, m-ZrO2 (monoclinic) is formed; while in N2, SrZrO3 and/or La2Zr2O7 are formed depending on the initial LSM/YSZ ratio. The reactions are reversible with varying P(O2) i.e. treating the sample in air after the heat treatment in N2...

  8. Evaluation of regional-scale water level simulations using various river routing schemes within a hydrometeorological modelling framework for the preparation of the SWOT mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häfliger, V.; Martin, E.; Boone, A. A.; Habets, F.; David, C. H.; Garambois, P. A.; Roux, H.; Ricci, S. M.; Thévenin, A.; Berthon, L.; Biancamaria, S.

    2014-12-01

    The ability of a regional hydrometeorological model to simulate water depth is assessed in order to prepare for the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) mission that will observe free surface water elevations for rivers having a width larger than 50/100 m. The Garonne river (56 000 km2, in south-western France) has been selected owing to the availability of operational gauges, and the fact that different modeling platforms, the hydrometeorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU and several fine scale hydraulic models, have been extensively evaluated over two reaches of the river. Several routing schemes, ranging from the simple Muskingum method to time-variable parameter kinematic and diffusive waves schemes with time varying parameters, are tested using predetermined hydraulic parameters. The results show that the variable flow velocity scheme is advantageous for discharge computations when compared to the original Muskingum routing method. Additionally, comparisons between water level computations and in situ observations led to root mean square errors of 50-60 cm for the improved Muskingum method and 40-50 cm for the kinematic-diffusive wave method, in the downstream Garonne river. The error is larger than the anticipated SWOT resolution, showing the potential of the mission to improve knowledge of the continental water cycle. Discharge computations are also shown to be comparable to those obtained with high-resolution hydraulic models over two reaches. However, due to the high variability of river parameters (e.g. slope and river width), a robust averaging method is needed to compare the hydraulic model outputs and the regional model. Sensitivity tests are finally performed in order to have a better understanding of the mechanisms which control the key hydrological processes. The results give valuable information about the linearity, Gaussianity and symetry of the model, in order to prepare the assimilation of river heights in the model.

  9. Conformation of LSM/YSZ and LSM ceramic films obtained by the citrate and solid mixture techniques; Conformacao de filmes ceramicos de LSM e LSM/YSZ obtidos pelas tecnicas citratos e mistura de solidos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiba, R.; Vargas, R.A.; Andreoli, M.; Seo, E.S.M., E-mail: rchiba@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (CCTM/IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Centro de Ciencia e Tecnologia de Materiais. Lab. de SOFC - Insumos e Componentes

    2009-07-01

    In this work, the ceramic films of LSM/YSZ (strontium-doped lanthanum manganite/Yttria-stabilized zirconia) and LSM used as cathodes of the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) are conformed by the wet powder spraying technique. The composite LSM/YSZ was obtained by the solid mixture technique and LSM by the citrate technique. For the formation of the LSM/YSZ and LSM ceramic films was necessary the preparation of dispersed ceramic suspensions for the deposition in YSZ substrate, used as electrolyte of the CaCOS. These powders were conformed using an aerograph for the deposition of the LSM/YSZ and LSM thin films of approximately 40 microns. The half-cells had been characterized by X-ray diffractometry (XRD), identifying the phases hexagonal (LSM) and cubica (YSZ). And electronic scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to evaluate the adherence and porosity of the ceramic films according to the characteristics of the cathode. (author)

  10. Development of Self-made LSM Software using in Neuroscience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doronin, Maxim; Makovkin, Sergey; Popov, Alexander

    2017-07-01

    One of the main and modern visualization method in neuroscience is two-photon microscopy. However, scientists need to upgrade their microscopy system so regular because they are interested to get more specific data. Self-developed microscopy system allows to modify the construction of microscope in not-complicated manner depending on specialized experimental models and scientific tasks. Earlier we reported about building of self-made laser scanning microscope (LSM) using in neuroscience both for in vivo and in vitro experiments. Here we will report how to create software AMAScan for LSM controlling in MATLAB. The work was performed with financial support of the government represented by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, the unique identifier of the project is RFMEFI58115X0016, the agreement on granting a subsidy №14.581.21.0016 dated 14.10.2015.

  11. Combined use of local and global hydrometeorological data with regional and global hydrological models in the Magdalena - Cauca river basin, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Erasmo; Sanchez, Ines; Duque, Nicolas; Lopez, Patricia; Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Arboleda, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    The Magdalena Cauca Macrobasin (MCMB) in Colombia, with an area of about 257,000 km2, is the largest and most important water resources system in the country. With almost 80% of the Colombian population (46 million people) settled in the basin, it is the main source of water for demands including human consumption, agriculture, hydropower generation, industrial activities and ecosystems. Despite its importance, the basin has witnessed enormous changes in land-cover and extensive deforestation during the last three decades. To make things more complicated, the MCMB currently lacks a set of tools to support planning and decision making processes at scale of the whole watershed. Considering this, the MCMB has been selected as one of the six different regional case studies in the eartH2Observe research project, in which hydrological and meteorological reanalysis products are being validated for the period 1980-2012. The combined use of the hydrological and meteorological reanalysis data, with local hydrometeorological data (precipitation, temperature and streamflow) provided by the National Hydrometeorological Agency (IDEAM), has given us the opportunity to implement and test three hydrological models (VIC, WFLOW and a Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework) at the basin scale. Additionally, results from the global models in the eartH2Observe hydrological reanalysis have been used to evaluate their performance against the observed streamflow data. This paper discusses the comparison between streamflow observations and simulations from the global hydrological models forced with the WFDEI data, and regional models forced with a combination of observed and meteorological reanalysis data, in the whole domain of the MCMB. For the three regional models analysed results show good performances for some sub-basins and poor performances for others. This can be due to the smoothing of the precipitation fields, interpolated from point daily rainfall data, the effect of

  12. Hydrometeorological daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) for the Western Mountain Aquifer, Israel: Model application and effects of temporal patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffer, N. A.; Dafny, E.; Gvirtzman, H.; Navon, S.; Frumkin, A.; Morin, E.

    2010-05-01

    Recharge is a critical issue for water management. Recharge assessment and the factors affecting recharge are of scientific and practical importance. The purpose of this study was to develop a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM) on the basis of a water balance principle with input from conventional and generally available precipitation and evaporation data and demonstrate the application of this model to recharge estimation in the Western Mountain Aquifer (WMA) in Israel. The WMA (area 13,000 km2) is a karst aquifer that supplies 360-400 Mm3 yr-1 of freshwater, which constitutes 20% of Israel's freshwater and is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. DREAM was linked to a groundwater flow model (FEFLOW) to simulate monthly hydraulic heads and spring flows. The models were calibrated for 1987-2002 and validated for 2003-2007, yielding high agreement between calculated and measured values (R2 = 0.95; relative root-mean-square error = 4.8%; relative bias = 1.04). DREAM allows insights into the effect of intra-annual precipitation distribution factors on recharge. Although annual precipitation amount explains ˜70% of the variability in simulated recharge, analyses with DREAM indicate that the rainy season length is an important factor controlling recharge. Years with similar annual precipitation produce different recharge values as a result of temporal distribution throughout the rainy season. An experiment with a synthetic data set exhibits similar results, explaining ˜90% of the recharge variability. DREAM represents significant improvement over previous recharge estimation techniques in this region by providing near-real-time recharge estimates that can be used to predict the impact of climate variability on groundwater resources at high temporal and spatial resolution.

  13. The Mexican hydro-meteorological disasters and climate network (redesclim) as model on outreach decision makers on disaster public policy in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh-Rodriguez, C. M.; Rodriguez-Estevez, J. M., Sr.; Romo-Aguilar, M. D. L.; Brito-Castillo, L.; Salinas-Prieto, A.; Gonzalez-Sosa, E.; Pérez-Campuzano, E.

    2017-12-01

    REDESCLIM was designed and develop in 2011 due to a public call from The Science and Technology Mexican Council (CONACYT); CONACYT lead the activities for its organization and development among the academic community. REDESCLIM was created to enhance the capacity of response to hydro-meteorological disasters and climate events through an integrative effort of researchers, technologists, entrepreneurs, politicians and society. Brief summary of our objectives: 1) Understand the causes of disasters, to reduce risks to society and ecosystems 2) Support research and interdisciplinary assessment of the physical processes in natural and social phenomena to improve understanding of causes and impacts 3) Strengths collaboration with academic, government, private and other interdisciplinary networks from Mexico and other countries 4) Build human capacity and promote the development of skills 5) Recommend strategies for climate hazard prevention, mitigation and response, especially for hazard with the greatest impacts in Mexico, such as hurricanes, floods, drought, wild fires and other extremes events. We provide a continues communication channel on members research results to provide scientific information that could be used for different proposes, specificaly for decision makers who are dealing with ecological and hydro meteorological problems that can result in disasters, and provide a services menu based on the members scientific projects, publications, teaching courses, in order to impact public policy as final result. http://www.redesclim.org.mx. So far we have some basic results: Fiver national meetings (participants from 35 countries around the world), 7 Workshops and seminars (virtual and in-person), Climatic data platforms ( http://clicom.mex.cicese.mx, http://clicom-mex.cicese.mx/malla, http://atlasclimatico.unam.mx/REDESCLIM2/ ), climate change scenarios for the general public at http://escenarios.inecc.gob.mx, 14 seed projects, one model to hurricane simulation

  14. Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

  15. Polarization Induced Changes in LSM Thin Film Electrode Composition Observed by In Operando Raman Spectroscopy and TOF-SIMS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McIntyre, Melissa D.; Walker, Robert; Traulsen, Marie Lund

    2015-01-01

    an applied potential.1-3 The presented work explores the polarisation induced changes in LSM electrode composition by utilizing in operando Raman spectroscopy and post mortem ToF-SIMS depth profiling on LSM thin film model electrodes fabricated by pulsed laser deposition on YSZ substrates with a thin (200 nm...... recorded through the LSM thin film electrodes and revealed distinct compositional changes throughout the electrodes (Figure 2). The electrode elements and impurities separated into distinct layers that were more pronounced for the stronger applied polarisations. The mechanism behind this separation...

  16. A two-phase copula entropy-based multiobjective optimization approach to hydrometeorological gauge network design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Pengcheng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi; Liu, Jiufu; Zou, Ying; He, Ruimin

    2017-12-01

    Hydrometeorological data are needed for obtaining point and areal mean, quantifying the spatial variability of hydrometeorological variables, and calibration and verification of hydrometeorological models. Hydrometeorological networks are utilized to collect such data. Since data collection is expensive, it is essential to design an optimal network based on the minimal number of hydrometeorological stations in order to reduce costs. This study proposes a two-phase copula entropy- based multiobjective optimization approach that includes: (1) copula entropy-based directional information transfer (CDIT) for clustering the potential hydrometeorological gauges into several groups, and (2) multiobjective method for selecting the optimal combination of gauges for regionalized groups. Although entropy theory has been employed for network design before, the joint histogram method used for mutual information estimation has several limitations. The copula entropy-based mutual information (MI) estimation method is shown to be more effective for quantifying the uncertainty of redundant information than the joint histogram (JH) method. The effectiveness of this approach is verified by applying to one type of hydrometeorological gauge network, with the use of three model evaluation measures, including Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC), arithmetic mean of the negative copula entropy (MNCE), and MNCE/NSC. Results indicate that the two-phase copula entropy-based multiobjective technique is capable of evaluating the performance of regional hydrometeorological networks and can enable decision makers to develop strategies for water resources management.

  17. Multiparameter models in the management of the development of territories, taking into account the influence of hydrometeorological factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Istomin, E. P.; Popov, N. N.; Sokolov, A. G.; Fokicheva, A. A.

    2018-01-01

    The article considers the geoinformation management of the territory as a way to manage the organizational and technical systems and territories distributed in space. The article describes the main factors for the development and implementation of management decisions, requirements for the territorial management system and the structure of knowledge and data. Mathematical one-parameter and multiparameter models of risk assessment of management decisions applied to the natural and climatic potential of the development of the territory were considered.

  18. The FRX-C/LSM compression experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rej, D.J.; Siemon, R.E.; Taggart, D.P.

    1989-01-01

    After two years of preparation, hardware for high-power FRC compression heating studies is now being installed onto FRX-C/LSM. FRCs will be formed and translated out of the θ-pinch source, and into a compressor where the external B-field will be increased from 0.4 to 2 T in 55 μs. The compressed FRC can then be translated into a third stage for further study. A principal experimental goal is to study FRC confinement at the high energy density, n(T/sub e/ + T/sub i/) ≤ 1.0 /times/ 10 22 keV/m 3 , associated with the large external field. Experiments are scheduled to begin in April. 11 refs., 5 figs

  19. Impregnation of LSM Based Cathodes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højberg, Jonathan; Søgaard, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Composites cathodes consisting of strontium doped lanthanum manganite (LSM) and yttria stabilized zirconia have been impregnated with the nitrates corresponding to the nominal compositions: La0.75Sr0.25Mn1.05O3 +/-delta (LSM25), Ce0.8Sm0.2O2 (SDC) and a combination of both (dual). The latter...

  20. Benchmarking LSM root-zone soil mositure predictions using satellite-based vegetation indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    The application of modern land surface models (LSMs) to agricultural drought monitoring is based on the premise that anomalies in LSM root-zone soil moisture estimates can accurately anticipate the subsequent impact of drought on vegetation productivity and health. In addition, the water and energy ...

  1. Hydrometeorological Research in South Africa: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina M. Botai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions of the world are of great concern, as they are closely linked to the wellbeing of humankind. Sophisticated hydrological prediction tools are required to assess climatic and hydrometeorological conditions, as they impact the sustainability of water resources as well as water availability. Research and data collection activities from multi-hydrometeorological sensors (e.g., gauges, radars, satellites form the basis for quantifying the impact of extreme episodes along the hydrologic phases that manifest in terms of the magnitude, duration and frequency of floods, droughts and other hydrometeorological hazards that affect water resources management. A number of hydrometeorological research activities have been reported in the literature by various researchers and research groups globally. This contribution presents (a a review of the hydrometeorology resource landscape in South Africa; (b an analysis of the hydrometeorology services and products in South Africa; (c a review of the hydrometeorological research that has been conducted in South Africa for the last four decades; and (d highlights on some of the challenges facing the sustained advancement of research in hydrometeorology in South Africa.

  2. Multifractal Conceptualisation of Hydro-Meteorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

    2009-04-01

    Hydrology and more generally sciences involved in water resources management, technological or operational developments face a fundamental difficulty: the extreme variability of hydro-meteorological fields. It clearly appears today that this variability is a function of the observation scale and yield hydro-meteorological hazards. Throughout the world, the development of multifractal theory offers new techniques for handling such non-classical variability over wide ranges of time and space scales. The resulting stochastic simulations with a very limited number of parameters well reproduce the long range dependencies and the clustering of rainfall extremes often yielding fat tailed (i.e., an algebraic type) probability distributions. The goal of this work was to investigate the ability of using very short or incomplete data records for reliable statistical predictions of the extremes. In particular we discuss how to evaluate the uncertainty in the empirical or semi-analytical multifractal outcomes. We consider three main aspects of the evaluation, such as the scaling adequacy, the multifractal parameter estimation error and the quantile estimation error. We first use the multiplicative cascade model to generate long series of multifractal data. The simulated samples had to cover the range of the universal multifractal parameters widely available in the scientific literature for the rainfall and river discharges. Using these long multifractal series and their sub-samples, we defined a metric for parameter estimation error. Then using the sets of estimated parameters, we obtained the quantile values for a range of excedance probabilities from 5% to 0.01%. Plotting the error bars on a quantile plot enable an approximation of confidence intervals that would be particularly important for the predictions of multifractal extremes. We finally illustrate the efficiency of such concept on its application to a large database (more than 16000 selected stations over USA and

  3. Central Asian Snow Cover from Hydrometeorological Surveys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Central Asian Snow Cover from Hydrometeorological Surveys data are based on observations made by personnel for three river basins: Amu Darya, Sir Darya, and...

  4. Effect of Aging on the Electrochemical Performance of LSM-YSZ Cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baqué, L. C.; Jørgensen, Peter Stanley; Zhang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    resistance shows no clear tendency with aging time, while the ionic conductivity decreases up to ∼79%. Accordingly, the electrochemically active thickness contracts from 60–135 μm to 45–60 μm. The changes observed in the cathode transport and electrochemical properties are mostly explained by the evolution......Investigations of degradation mechanisms of solid oxide fuel cells are crucial for achieving a widespread commercialization of the technology. In this work, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) was applied for studying the aging effect on LSM-YSZ cathodes exposed to humidified air at 900°C...... for up to 3000 h. EIS spectra were fitted by a transmission line model for estimating relevant parameters associated with the LSM/YSZ charge transfer reaction and the oxide ion conduction through the YSZ network. For the reference non-aged sample, the ionic conductivity values are the expected ones...

  5. LSM-YSZ Cathodes with Reaction-Infiltrated Nanoparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Chun; Sholklapper, Tal Z.; Jacobson, Craig P.; Visco, StevenJ.; De Jonghe, Lutgard C.

    2006-01-01

    To improve the LSM-YSZ cathode performance of intermediate temperature solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), Sm0.6Sr0.4CoO3-sigma (SSC) perovskite nanoparticles are incorporated into the cathodes by a reaction-infiltration process. The SSC particles are ∼20 to 80nm in diameter, and intimately adhere to the pore walls of the preformed LSM-YSZ cathodes. The SSC particles dramatically enhance single-cell performance with a 97 percent H2+3 percent H2O fuel, between 600 C and 800 C. Consideration of a simplified TPB (triple phase boundary) reaction geometry indicates that the enhancement may be attributed to the high electrocatalytic activity of SSC for electrochemical reduction of oxygen in a region that can be located a small distance away from the strict triple phase boundaries. The implication of this work for developing high-performance electrodes is also discussed

  6. ICT-based hydrometeorology science and natural disaster societal impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, A.; Clematis, A.; Craig, G. C.; Kranzmueller, D.

    2009-09-01

    In the Lisbon strategy, the 2005 European Council identified knowledge and innovation as the engines of sustainable growth and stated that it is essential to build a fully inclusive information society. In parallel, the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Hyogo, 2005), defined among its thematic priorities the improvement of international cooperation in hydrometeorology research activities. This was recently confirmed at the joint press conference of the Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) with the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Secretariat, held on January 2009, where it was noted that flood and storm events are among the natural disasters that most impact human life. Hydrometeorological science has made strong progress over the last decade at the European and worldwide level: new modelling tools, post processing methodologies and observational data are available. Recent European efforts in developing a platform for e-science, like EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-sciencE), SEE-GRID-SCI (South East Europe GRID e-Infrastructure for regional e-Science), and the German C3-Grid, provide an ideal basis for the sharing of complex hydrometeorological data sets and tools. Despite these early initiatives, however, the awareness of the potential of the Grid technology as a catalyst for future hydrometeorological research is still low and both the adoption and the exploitation have astonishingly been slow, not only within individual EC member states, but also on a European scale. With this background in mind, the goal of the Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study (DRIHMS) project is the promotion of the Grid culture within the European hydrometeorological research community through the diffusion of a Grid platform for e-collaboration in this earth science sector: the idea is to further boost European research excellence and competitiveness in the fields of hydrometeorological research and Grid

  7. Study of the formation of secondary phases in the composite LSM/YSZ; Estudo da formacao de fases secundarias no composito LSM/YSZ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigues, Ranieri Andrade

    2007-07-01

    The composite of strontium-doped lanthanum manganite (La{sub 1-x}SrxMnO{sub 3} - LSM) and Yttria-stabilized zirconia (ZrO{sub 2}/Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} - YSZ), is indicated as cathode of the Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC). It presents better acting as cathode due to the Triple Phase Boundary (TPB) formed in the interface area between the cathode and the electrolyte. For the temperatures up to 1100 deg C, LSM and YSZ can react producing lanthanum zirconate (La{sub 2}Zr{sub 2}O{sub 7} - LZO) and strontium zirconate (SrZrO{sub 3} - SZO). In this sense, the present work intends to contribute in the study of the formation of phases LZO and SZO, studying different massic proportions between LSM and YSZ with sintering temperatures varying between 1000 deg C and 1400 deg C. For the obtention of the precursory powders the co-precipitation routes were adopted to obtain YSZ and conventional powder mixture for the preparation of LSM. The composite LSM/YSZ, studied in this work, is prepared with two concentrations of Sr for LSM (30 mol por cent - LSM7 and 40 mol por cent - LSM6) and one concentration of Yttria for YSZ (10 mol por cent). The results obtained by X-ray fluorescence showed that the routes adopted for synthesis of powders were effective in the obtention of the compositions LSM6, LSM7 and YSZ, with close values to the stoichiometric. The studied massic proportions were: 50 por cent of LSM and 50 por cent of YSZ (1:1), 25 por cent of LSM and 75 por cent of YSZ (1:3), and 75 por cent of LSM and 25 por cent of YSZ (3:1). Such proportions of mixtures were conformed and submitted at different conditions of temperatures and times of sintering: 1000 deg C, 1200 deg C, 1300 deg C, 1350 deg C and 1400 deg C for 4 and 8 hours. The values of medium size of the particles and the specific surface area values for the mixture of LSM6/YSZ and LSM7/YSZ, are of the same order of largeness after the mixture in a attrition mill and in different massic proportions. Secondary phases like LZO and

  8. Identifying and Evaluating Chaotic Behavior in Hydro-Meteorological Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soojun Kim

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate chaotic behavior in hydro-meteorological processes. This study poses the two hypotheses to identify chaotic behavior of the processes. First, assume that the input data is the significant factor to provide chaotic characteristics to output data. Second, assume that the system itself is the significant factor to provide chaotic characteristics to output data. For solving this issue, hydro-meteorological time series such as precipitation, air temperature, discharge, and storage volume were collected in the Great Salt Lake and Bear River Basin, USA. The time series in the period of approximately one year were extracted from the original series using the wavelet transform. The generated time series from summation of sine functions were fitted to each series and used for investigating the hypotheses. Then artificial neural networks had been built for modeling the reservoir system and the correlation dimension was analyzed for the evaluation of chaotic behavior between inputs and outputs. From the results, we found that the chaotic characteristic of the storage volume which is output is likely a byproduct of the chaotic behavior of the reservoir system itself rather than that of the input data.

  9. ICT-infrastructures for hydrometeorology science and natural disaster societal impact assessment: the DRIHMS project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, A.; Craig, G. C.; Clematis, A.; Kranzlmueller, D.; Schiffers, M.; Morando, M.; Rebora, N.; Trasforini, E.; D'Agostino, D.; Keil, K.

    2010-09-01

    Hydrometeorological science has made strong progress over the last decade at the European and worldwide level: new modeling tools, post processing methodologies and observational data and corresponding ICT (Information and Communication Technology) technologies are available. Recent European efforts in developing a platform for e-Science, such as EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-sciencE), SEEGRID-SCI (South East Europe GRID e-Infrastructure for regional e-Science), and the German C3-Grid, have demonstrated their abilities to provide an ideal basis for the sharing of complex hydrometeorological data sets and tools. Despite these early initiatives, however, the awareness of the potential of the Grid technology as a catalyst for future hydrometeorological research is still low and both the adoption and the exploitation have astonishingly been slow, not only within individual EC member states, but also on a European scale. With this background in mind and the fact that European ICT-infrastructures are in the progress of transferring to a sustainable and permanent service utility as underlined by the European Grid Initiative (EGI) and the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe (PRACE), the Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study (DRIHMS, co-Founded by the EC under the 7th Framework Programme) project has been initiated. The goal of DRIHMS is the promotion of the Grids in particular and e-Infrastructures in general within the European hydrometeorological research (HMR) community through the diffusion of a Grid platform for e-collaboration in this earth science sector: the idea is to further boost European research excellence and competitiveness in the fields of hydrometeorological research and Grid research by bridging the gaps between these two scientific communities. Furthermore the project is intended to transfer the results to areas beyond the strict hydrometeorology science as a support for the assessment of the effects of extreme

  10. The training on propagation of guided electromagnetic waves from the point of view of LSM LSE modes; La ensenanza de las ondas electromagneticas guiadas desde el punto de vista de los modos LSM y LSE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez, J.

    1997-09-01

    In this work, LSM and LSE modes are proposed as a didactic alternative for modeling the propagation of guided electromagnetic waves. Our considerations can be applied to the most common electromagnetic waves guiding systems: empty metallic waveguides, metallic waveguides partially filled with dielectrics, dielectric sheet waveguides and 3-D dielectric waveguides. In all cases, our interest is focussed on modes with a defined polarization; therefore the teaching activity can be treated from the scalar wave approximation point of view. (Author)

  11. Functional characterization of duck LSm14A in IFN-β induction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Kexin; Li, Huilin; Chen, Huanchun; Foda, Mohamed Frahat; Luo, Rui; Jin, Hui

    2017-11-01

    Human LSm14A is a key component of processing body (P-body) assembly that mediates interferon-β (IFN-β) production by sensing viral RNA or DNA. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to report duck LSm14A (duLSm14A) cloning from duck embryo fibroblasts (DEFs). Full-length duLSm14A encoded 461 amino acids and was highly homologous with chicken and swan goose sequences. More interestingly, the duLSm14A mRNA was extensively expressed in all the studied tissues. In DEFs, duLSm14A was localized in the cytoplasm as P-body-like dots. Expression of duLSm14A induced IFN-β through the activation of interferon regulatory factor-1 and nuclear factor-κB in DEFs. Furthermore, knockdown of duLSm14A by small interfering RNA notably decreased poly(I:C)- or duck reovirus-induced IFN-β production. The present study results indicate that the duLSm14A is an essential sensor that mediates duck innate immunity against viral infections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Formation and confinement of FRCs in FRX-C/LSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chrien, R.E.; Crawford, E.A.; Hugrass, W.N.

    1988-01-01

    The Large Source Modification of FRX-C (FRX-C/LSM) consists of a 50% increase in radius without a commensurate increase in either the coil length or capacitor bank energy. Previous studies in FRX-C/LSM compared tearing and nontearing formation in a coil arrangement which included passive mirrors and auxiliary cusp coils. The present studies use a straight coil (0.35 m radius, 2.0 m length) without passive mirrors; in this case, the cusp coils promote nontearing formation and provide mirror fields to inhibit axial drifting. This arrangement increases the length (from 1.3--2.0 m) and the length-to-diameter ratio (from 1.7--2.9) of the uniform field region. It also increases the implosion electric field from 28 to 32 kV/m. These changes tend to produce more elongated FRCs, but in all cases the axial equilibrium appears not to be influenced by the mirror fields. The FRCs are formed using a deuterium static fill varying from 2--10 mtorr, a bias field varying from 0.05--0.10 T, and preionization consisting of a zero-crossing ringing θ-pinch discharge aided by a 10 MHz RF generator. 10 refs., 2 figs

  13. Comparison of the Degradation of the Polarization Resistance of Symmetrical LSM-YSZ Cells, with Anode Supported Ni-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ SOFCs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torres da Silva, Iris Maura; Nielsen, Jimmi; Hjelm, Johan

    2009-01-01

    Impedance spectra of a symmetrical cell with SOFC cathodes (LSM-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ) and an anode supported planar SOFC (Ni-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ) were collected at OCV at 650{degree sign}C in air (cathode) and humidified (4%) hydrogen (anode), over 155 hours. The impedance was affected by degradation over...... time in the same frequency range for both cells (~10 Hz), possibly indicating that the same physical process was affected in both types of cell. However, deconvolution of the impedance data was not straightforward. When n-values of the constant phase elements in the otherwise identical equivalent...

  14. Impact of spatio-temporal scale of adjustment on variational assimilation of hydrologic and hydrometeorological data in operational distributed hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.; Seo, D.; McKee, P.; Corby, R.

    2009-12-01

    One of the large challenges in data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is to reduce the large degrees of freedom involved in the inverse problem to avoid overfitting. To assess the sensitivity of the performance of DA to the dimensionality of the inverse problem, we design and carry out real-world experiments in which the control vector in variational DA (VAR) is solved at different scales in space and time, e.g., lumped, semi-distributed, and fully-distributed in space, and hourly, 6 hourly, etc., in time. The size of the control vector is related to the degrees of freedom in the inverse problem. For the assessment, we use the prototype 4-dimenational variational data assimilator (4DVAR) that assimilates streamflow, precipitation and potential evaporation data into the NWS Hydrology Laboratory’s Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). In this talk, we present the initial results for a number of basins in Oklahoma and Texas.

  15. Study of the formation of secondary phases in the composite LSM/YSZ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, Ranieri Andrade

    2007-01-01

    The composite of strontium-doped lanthanum manganite (La 1-x SrxMnO 3 - LSM) and Yttria-stabilized zirconia (ZrO 2 /Y 2 O 3 - YSZ), is indicated as cathode of the Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC). It presents better acting as cathode due to the Triple Phase Boundary (TPB) formed in the interface area between the cathode and the electrolyte. For the temperatures up to 1100 deg C, LSM and YSZ can react producing lanthanum zirconate (La 2 Zr 2 O 7 - LZO) and strontium zirconate (SrZrO 3 - SZO). In this sense, the present work intends to contribute in the study of the formation of phases LZO and SZO, studying different massic proportions between LSM and YSZ with sintering temperatures varying between 1000 deg C and 1400 deg C. For the obtention of the precursory powders the co-precipitation routes were adopted to obtain YSZ and conventional powder mixture for the preparation of LSM. The composite LSM/YSZ, studied in this work, is prepared with two concentrations of Sr for LSM (30 mol por cent - LSM7 and 40 mol por cent - LSM6) and one concentration of Yttria for YSZ (10 mol por cent). The results obtained by X-ray fluorescence showed that the routes adopted for synthesis of powders were effective in the obtention of the compositions LSM6, LSM7 and YSZ, with close values to the stoichiometric. The studied massic proportions were: 50 por cent of LSM and 50 por cent of YSZ (1:1), 25 por cent of LSM and 75 por cent of YSZ (1:3), and 75 por cent of LSM and 25 por cent of YSZ (3:1). Such proportions of mixtures were conformed and submitted at different conditions of temperatures and times of sintering: 1000 deg C, 1200 deg C, 1300 deg C, 1350 deg C and 1400 deg C for 4 and 8 hours. The values of medium size of the particles and the specific surface area values for the mixture of LSM6/YSZ and LSM7/YSZ, are of the same order of largeness after the mixture in a attrition mill and in different massic proportions. Secondary phases like LZO and SZO were not found in the analysis for

  16. Chromium poisoning of LSM/YSZ and LSCF/CGO composite cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, Janet Jonna; Høgh, Jens Valdemar Thorvald; Barfod, Rasmus

    2009-01-01

    from 300 to 2,970 h. Both LSM/YSZ and LSCF/CGO cathodes were sensitive to chromium poisoning; LSCF/CGO cathodes to a lesser extent than LSM/YSZ. Humid air aggravated the degradation of the cathode performance. Post-mortem electron microscopic investigations revealed several Cr-containing compounds...

  17. SET UP OF THE NEW AUTOMATIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL NETWORK IN HUNGARY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. NAGy

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ and General Directorate of Water Management (OVF in Hungary run conventional precipitation measurement networks consisting of at least 1000 stations. OMSZ automated its synoptic and climatological network in 90’s and now more than 100 automatic stations give data every 1-10 minutes via GPRS channel. In 2007 the experts from both institutions determined the requirements of a common network. The predecessor in title of OVF is general Directorate for Water and Environment gave a project proposal in 2008 for establishment of a new hydrometeorological network based on common aims for meteorology and hydrology. The new hydrometeorological network was set up in 2012 financed by KEOP project. This network has got 141 weighing precipitation gauges, 118 temperature - humidity sensors and 25 soil moisture and soil temperature instruments. Near by Tisza-Lake two wind sensors have been installed. The network is operated by OMSZ and OVF together. OVF and its institutions maintain the stations itself and support the electricity. OMSZ operates data collection and transmission, maintaines and calibrates the sensors. Using precipitation data of enhanced network the radar precipitation field quality may be more precise, which are input of run-off model. Thereby the time allowance may be increased in flood-control events. Based on soil moisture and temperature water balance in soil may be modelled and forecast can be produced in different conditions. It is very important task in drought and inland water conditions. Considering OMSZ investment project in which new Doppler dual polarisation radar and 14 disdrometers will be installed, the precipitation estimation may be improved since 2015.

  18. Investigation of the degradation of LSM-YSZ SOFC cathode by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torres da Silva, Iris Maura

    The aim of this PhD study was to investigate degradation of the LSM-YSZ cathode of anode supported Ni-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ solid oxide fuel cells. The chosen cathode materials LSM25 and 8YSZ were investigated for their compatibility and stability, to confirm that expansion/contraction or decreasing......, at different operating conditions. An equivalent circuit was developed for the symmetrical cell, describing the processes taking place at the LSM-YSZ cathode. This equivalent circuit was applied in degradation studies, where the processes affected by degradation over time could be pinpointed. Furthermore......, it was discovered that impurities in air cause significant degradation of the cathode. Humidity was found to increase the degradation rate, but other impurities might also be present and increasing degradation. Then the anode supported Ni-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ single cells were prepared and tested. It was found...

  19. Analysis of the sintering stresses and shape distortion produced in co-firing of CGO-LSM/CGO bi-layer porous structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ni, De Wei; Esposito, Vincenzo; Schmidt, Cristine Grings

    such as cracks, de-lamination and shape distortion can result as a consequence of sintering mismatch stresses caused by the strain rate difference between layers. This work seeks to understand the underlying mechanisms that occur during the co-firing of porous CGO-LSM/CGO bi-layer laminates, by evaluating...... the sintering mismatch stress and distortion development through modeling and experiments....

  20. LSM Proteins Provide Accurate Splicing and Decay of Selected Transcripts to Ensure Normal Arabidopsis Development[W

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perea-Resa, Carlos; Hernández-Verdeja, Tamara; López-Cobollo, Rosa; Castellano, María del Mar; Salinas, Julio

    2012-01-01

    In yeast and animals, SM-like (LSM) proteins typically exist as heptameric complexes and are involved in different aspects of RNA metabolism. Eight LSM proteins, LSM1 to 8, are highly conserved and form two distinct heteroheptameric complexes, LSM1-7 and LSM2-8,that function in mRNA decay and splicing, respectively. A search of the Arabidopsis thaliana genome identifies 11 genes encoding proteins related to the eight conserved LSMs, the genes encoding the putative LSM1, LSM3, and LSM6 proteins being duplicated. Here, we report the molecular and functional characterization of the Arabidopsis LSM gene family. Our results show that the 11 LSM genes are active and encode proteins that are also organized in two different heptameric complexes. The LSM1-7 complex is cytoplasmic and is involved in P-body formation and mRNA decay by promoting decapping. The LSM2-8 complex is nuclear and is required for precursor mRNA splicing through U6 small nuclear RNA stabilization. More importantly, our results also reveal that these complexes are essential for the correct turnover and splicing of selected development-related mRNAs and for the normal development of Arabidopsis. We propose that LSMs play a critical role in Arabidopsis development by ensuring the appropriate development-related gene expression through the regulation of mRNA splicing and decay. PMID:23221597

  1. Characterization of impregnated GDC nano structures and their functionality in LSM based cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klemensø, Trine; Chatzichristodoulou, Christodoulos; Nielsen, Jimmi

    2012-01-01

    Porous composite cathodes of LSM–YSZ (lanthanum strontium manganite and yttria stabilized zirconia) were impregnated with GDC (gadolinia doped ceria) nano particles. The impregnation process was varied using none or different surfactants (Triton X-45, Triton X-100, P123), and the quantity...... on the LSM phase and the LSM grain boundaries. The observations suggest that the improved performance associated with GDC nano particles is related to the particles placed near the TPB (triple phase boundary) zone. The GDC extends the TPB by creating an ionic conducting network on top of the LSM particles...

  2. Application of hydrometeorological coupled European flood forecasting operational real time system in Yellow River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-qi Yan

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the application of the European flood forecasting operational real time system (EFFORTS to the Yellow River. An automatic data pre-processing program was developed to provide real-time hydrometeorological data. Various GIS layers were collected and developed to meet the demands of the distributed hydrological model in the EFFORTS. The model parameters were calibrated and validated based on more than ten years of historical hydrometeorological data from the study area. The San-Hua Basin (from the Sanmenxia Reservoir to the Huayuankou Hydrological Station, the most geographically important area of the Yellow River, was chosen as the study area. The analysis indicates that the EFFORTS enhances the work efficiency, extends the flood forecasting lead time, and attains an acceptable level of forecasting accuracy in the San-Hua Basin, with a mean deterministic coefficient at Huayuankou Station, the basin outlet, of 0.90 in calibration and 0.96 in validation. The analysis also shows that the simulation accuracy is better for the southern part than for the northern part of the San-Hua Basin. This implies that, along with the characteristics of the basin and the mechanisms of runoff generation of the hydrological model, the hydrometeorological data play an important role in simulation of hydrological behavior.

  3. SOFC LSM:YSZ cathode degradation induced by moisture: An impedance spectroscopy study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmi; Mogensen, Mogens Bjerg

    2011-01-01

    The cause of the degradation effect of moisture during operation of LSM cathode based SOFCs has been investigated by means of a detailed impedance characterization on LSM:YSZ composite cathode based SOFCs. Further the role of YSZ as cathode composite material was studied by measurements on SOFCs...... with a LSM:CGO composite cathode on a CGO interdiffusion barrier layer. It was found that both types of cathodes showed similar electrochemical characteristics towards the presence of moisture during operation. Upon addition and removal of moisture in the fed air the impedance study showed a change...... in the high frequency cathode arc, which is associated with the charge transport/transfer at the LSM/YSZ interface. On prolonged operation with the presence of moisture an ongoing increase in the high frequency cathode arc resulted in a permanent loss of cathode/electrolyte contact and thus increase...

  4. Joint System of the National Hydrometeorology for disaster prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, J.; Cho, K.; Lee, Y. S.; Jung, H. S.; Yoo, H. D.; Ryu, D.; Kwon, J.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrological disaster relief expenditure accounts for as much as 70 percent of total expenditure of disasters occurring in Korea. Since the response to and recovery of disasters are normally based on previous experiences, there have been limitations when dealing with ever-increasing localized heavy rainfall with short range in the era of climate change. Therefore, it became necessary to establish a system that can respond to a disaster in advance through the analysis and prediction of hydrometeorological information. Because a wide range of big data is essential, it cannot be done by a single agency only. That is why the three hydrometeorology-related agencies cooperated to establish a pilot (trial) system at Soemjingang basin in 2013. The three governmental agencies include the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in charge of disaster prevention and public safety, the National Geographic Information Institute (NGII under Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) in charge of geographical data, and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) in charge of weather information. This pilot system was designed to be able to respond to disasters in advance through providing a damage prediction information for flash flood to public officers for safety part using high resolution precipitation prediction data provided by the KMA and high precision geographic data by NGII. To produce precipitation prediction data with high resolution, the KMA conducted downscaling from 25km×25km global model to 3km×3km local model and is running the local model twice a day. To maximize the utility of weather prediction information, the KMA is providing the prediction information for 7 days with 1 hour interval at Soemjingang basin to monitor and predict not only flood but also drought. As no prediction is complete without a description of its uncertainty, it is planned to continuously develop the skills to improve the uncertainty of the prediction on weather and its impact

  5. Diagnosis of GLDAS LSM based aridity index and dryland identification for socioeconomic aspect of water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghazanfari, S.; Pande, S.; Hashemy, M.; Naseri M., M.

    2012-04-01

    Water resources scarcity plays an important role in socioeconomic aspect of livelihood pattern in dryland areas. Hydrological perspective of aridity is required for social and economic coping Strategies. Identification of dryland areas is crucial to guide policy aimed at intervening in water stressed areas and addressing its perennial livelihood or food insecurity. Yet, prevailing aridity indices are beset with methodological limitations that restrict their use in delineating drylands and, might be insuffient for decision making frameworks. Palmer's Drought Severity index (PDSI) reports relative soil moisture deviations from long term means, which does not allow cross comparisons, while UNEP's aridity index, the ratio of annual evaporative demand to rainfall supply, ignores site specific soil and vegetation characteristics that are needed for appropriate water balance assessment. We propose to refine UNEP's aridity index by accounting for site specific soil and vegetation to partition precipitation into competing demands of evaporation and runoff. We create three aridity indices at a 1 x 1 degree spatial resolution based on 3 decades of soil moisture time series from three GLDAS Land Surface Models (LSM's): VIC, MOSAIC and NOAH. We compare each LSM model aridity map with the UNEP aridity map which was created based on LSM data forcing. Our approach is to extract the first Eigen function from Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis that represents the dominant spatial template of soil moisture conditions of the three LSM's. Frequency of non-exceedence of this dominant soil moisture mode for a location by all other locations is used as our proposed aridity index. The EOF analysis reveals that the first Eigen function explains, respectively, 33%, 43% and 47% of the VIC, NOAH and MOSAIC models. The temporal coefficients associated with the first OF (Orthogonal Function) for all three LSMS clearly show seasonality with a discrete jump in trend around the year 1999

  6. Dual RNA Processing Roles of Pat1b via Cytoplasmic Lsm1-7 and Nuclear Lsm2-8 Complexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Vindry

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Pat1 RNA-binding proteins, enriched in processing bodies (P bodies, are key players in cytoplasmic 5′ to 3′ mRNA decay, activating decapping of mRNA in complex with the Lsm1-7 heptamer. Using co-immunoprecipitation and immunofluorescence approaches coupled with RNAi, we provide evidence for a nuclear complex of Pat1b with the Lsm2-8 heptamer, which binds to the spliceosomal U6 small nuclear RNA (snRNA. Furthermore, we establish the set of interactions connecting Pat1b/Lsm2-8/U6 snRNA/SART3 and additional U4/U6.U5 tri-small nuclear ribonucleoprotein particle (tri-snRNP components in Cajal bodies, the site of snRNP biogenesis. RNA sequencing following Pat1b depletion revealed the preferential upregulation of mRNAs normally found in P bodies and enriched in 3′ UTR AU-rich elements. Changes in >180 alternative splicing events were also observed, characterized by skipping of regulated exons with weak donor sites. Our data demonstrate the dual role of a decapping enhancer in pre-mRNA processing as well as in mRNA decay via distinct nuclear and cytoplasmic Lsm complexes.

  7. Assessing Nature-Based Coastal Protection against Disasters Derived from Extreme Hydrometeorological Events in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Octavio Pérez-Maqueo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Natural ecosystems are expected to reduce the damaging effects of extreme hydrometeorological effects. We tested this prediction for Mexico by performing regression models, with two dependent variables: the occurrence of deaths and economic damages, at a state and municipality levels. For each location, the explanatory variables were the Mexican social vulnerability index (which includes socioeconomic aspects, local capacity to prevent and respond to an emergency, and the perception of risk and land use cover considering different vegetation types. We used the hydrometeorological events that have affected Mexico from 1970 to 2011. Our findings reveal that: (a hydrometeorological events affect both coastal and inland states, although damages are greater on the coast; (b the protective role of natural ecosystems only was clear at a municipality level: the presence of mangroves, tropical dry forest and tropical rainforest was related to a significant reduction in the occurrence of casualties. Social vulnerability was positively correlated with the occurrence of deaths. Natural ecosystems, both typically coastal (mangroves and terrestrial (tropical forests, which are located on the mountain ranges close to the coast function for storm protection. Thus, their conservation and restoration are effective and sustainable strategies that will help protect and develop the increasingly urbanized coasts.

  8. Electron temperature measurements of FRX-C/LSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rej, D.J.

    1989-01-01

    The electron temperature T/sub e/ has been measured with Thomson scattering field-reversed configurations (FRCs) on the Los Alamos FRX-C/LSM experiment. FRCs formed and trapped in-situ in the θ-pinch source are studied. These experiments mark the first comprehensive FRC T/sub e/ measurements in over five years with data gathered on over 400 discharges. Measurements are performed at a single point in space and time on each discharge. The Thomson scattering diagnostic consist of a Q-switched ruby laser focused from one end to a point 0.2 m from the axial midplane of the θ-pinch coil and at radius of either 0.00 or 0.10 m. Scattered light is collected, dispersed and detected with a 7-channel, triple-grating polychromator configured to detect light wavelengths between 658 and 692 nm. Photomultiplier currents are measured with gated A/D converters, with plasma background signals recorded 100-ns before and 100-ns after the laser pulse. Electron temperatures are measured at either radial position during the time interval, 10 ≤ t ≤ 70 μs, between FRC formation and the onset of the n = 2 instability which usually terminates the discharge. A variety of plasma conditions have been produced by adjusting three external parameters: the initial deuterium fill pressure p/sub O/; the reversed bias magnetic field B/sub b/; and the external magnetic field B/sub w/. The fill-pressure scan has been performed at B/sub b/ ≅ 60 mT and B/sub w/ ≅ 0.4 T with p/sub o/ set at either 2, 3, 4 or 5 mtorr. The bias-field scan, 37 ≤ B/sub b/ ≤ 95 mT, has been performed at p/sub o/ = 3 mtorr and B/sub w/ ≅ 0.4 T. 7 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  9. The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute's severe storm nowcasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Petr

    2007-02-01

    To satisfy requirements for operational severe weather monitoring and prediction, the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) has developed a severe storm nowcasting system which uses weather radar data as its primary data source. Previous CHMI studies identified two methods of radar echo prediction, which were then implemented during 2003 into the Czech weather radar network operational weather processor. The applications put into operations were the Continuity Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation (COTREC) algorithm, and an application that predicts future radar fields using the wind field derived from the geopotential at 700 hPa calculated from a local numerical weather prediction model (ALADIN). To ensure timely delivery of the prediction products to the users, the forecasts are implemented into a web-based viewer (JSMeteoView) that has been developed by the CHMI Radar Department. At present, this viewer is used by all CHMI forecast offices for versatile visualization of radar and other meteorological data (Meteosat, lightning detection, NWP LAM output, SYNOP data) in the Internet/Intranet environment, and the viewer has detailed geographical navigation capabilities.

  10. Application of linear scheduling method (LSM) for nuclear power plant (NPP) construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woojoong; Ryu, Dongsoo; Jung, Youngsoo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Mixed use of linear scheduling method with traditional CPM is suggested for NPP. • A methodology for selecting promising areas for LSM application is proposed. • A case-study is conducted to validate the proposed LSM selection methodology. • A case-study of reducing NPP construction duration by using LSM is introduced. - Abstract: According to a forecast, global energy demand is expected to increase by 56% from 2010 to 2040 (EIA, 2013). The nuclear power plant construction market is also growing with sharper competition. In nuclear power plant construction, scheduling is one of the most important functions due to its large size and complexity. Therefore, it is crucial to incorporate the ‘distinct characteristics of construction commodities and the complex characteristics of scheduling techniques’ (Jung and Woo, 2004) when selecting appropriate schedule control methods for nuclear power plant construction. However, among various types of construction scheduling techniques, the traditional critical path method (CPM) has been used most frequently in real-world practice. In this context, the purpose of this paper is to examine the viability and effectiveness of linear scheduling method (LSM) applications for specific areas in nuclear power plant construction. In order to identify the criteria for selecting scheduling techniques, the characteristics of CPM and LSM were compared and analyzed first through a literature review. Distinct characteristics of nuclear power plant construction were then explored by using a case project in order to develop a methodology to select effective areas of LSM application to nuclear power plant construction. Finally, promising areas for actual LSM application are suggested based on the proposed evaluation criteria and the case project. Findings and practical implications are discussed for further implementation

  11. Application of linear scheduling method (LSM) for nuclear power plant (NPP) construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Woojoong, E-mail: minidung@nate.com [Central Research Institute, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd, Daejeon 305-343 (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Dongsoo, E-mail: energyboy@khnp.co.kr [Central Research Institute, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd, Daejeon 305-343 (Korea, Republic of); Jung, Youngsoo, E-mail: yjung97@mju.ac.kr [College of Architecture, Myongji University, Yongin 449-728 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-04-01

    Highlights: • Mixed use of linear scheduling method with traditional CPM is suggested for NPP. • A methodology for selecting promising areas for LSM application is proposed. • A case-study is conducted to validate the proposed LSM selection methodology. • A case-study of reducing NPP construction duration by using LSM is introduced. - Abstract: According to a forecast, global energy demand is expected to increase by 56% from 2010 to 2040 (EIA, 2013). The nuclear power plant construction market is also growing with sharper competition. In nuclear power plant construction, scheduling is one of the most important functions due to its large size and complexity. Therefore, it is crucial to incorporate the ‘distinct characteristics of construction commodities and the complex characteristics of scheduling techniques’ (Jung and Woo, 2004) when selecting appropriate schedule control methods for nuclear power plant construction. However, among various types of construction scheduling techniques, the traditional critical path method (CPM) has been used most frequently in real-world practice. In this context, the purpose of this paper is to examine the viability and effectiveness of linear scheduling method (LSM) applications for specific areas in nuclear power plant construction. In order to identify the criteria for selecting scheduling techniques, the characteristics of CPM and LSM were compared and analyzed first through a literature review. Distinct characteristics of nuclear power plant construction were then explored by using a case project in order to develop a methodology to select effective areas of LSM application to nuclear power plant construction. Finally, promising areas for actual LSM application are suggested based on the proposed evaluation criteria and the case project. Findings and practical implications are discussed for further implementation.

  12. Enhanced Soil Moisture Initialization Using Blended Soil Moisture Product and Regional Optimization of LSM-RTM Coupled Land Data Assimilation System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, A. S.; Indu, J.

    2017-12-01

    Prediction of soil moisture dynamics is high priority research challenge because of the complex land-atmosphere interaction processes. Soil moisture (SM) plays a decisive role in governing water and energy balance of the terrestrial system. An accurate SM estimate is imperative for hydrological and weather prediction models. Though SM estimates are available from microwave remote sensing and land surface model (LSM) simulations, it is affected by uncertainties from several sources during estimation. Past studies have generally focused on land data assimilation (DA) for improving LSM predictions by assimilating soil moisture from single satellite sensor. This approach is limited by the large time gap between two consequent soil moisture observations due to satellite repeat cycle of more than three days at the equator. To overcome this, in the present study, we have performed DA using ensemble products from the soil moisture operational product system (SMOPS) blended soil moisture retrievals from different satellite sensors into Noah LSM. Before the assimilation period, the Noah LSM is initialized by cycling through seven multiple loops from 2008 to 2010 forcing with Global data assimilation system (GDAS) data over the Indian subcontinent. We assimilated SMOPS into Noah LSM for a period of two years from 2010 to 2011 using Ensemble Kalman Filter within NASA's land information system (LIS) framework. Results show that DA has improved Noah LSM prediction with a high correlation of 0.96 and low root mean square difference of 0.0303 m3/m3 (figure 1a). Further, this study has also investigated the notion of assimilating microwave brightness temperature (Tb) as a proxy for SM estimates owing to the close proximity of Tb and SM. Preliminary sensitivity analysis show a strong need for regional parameterization of radiative transfer models (RTMs) to improve Tb simulation. Towards this goal, we have optimized the forward RTM using swarm optimization technique for direct Tb

  13. Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iqra Atif

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The Upper Indus basin (UIB is characterized by contrasting hydrometeorological behaviors; therefore, it has become pertinent to understand hydrometeorological trends at the sub-watershed level. Many studies have investigated the snow cover and hydrometeorological modeling at basin level but none have reported the spatial variability of trends and their magnitude at a sub-basin level. This study was conducted to analyze the trends in the contrasting hydrological regimes of the snow and glacier-fed river catchments of the Hunza and Astore sub-basins of the UIB. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to study the main trends and their magnitude using MODIS snow cover information (2001–2015 and hydrometeorological data. The results showed that in the Hunza basin, the river discharge and temperature were significantly (p ≤ 0.05 decreased with a Sen’s slope value of −2.541 m3·s−1·year−1 and −0.034 °C·year−1, respectively, while precipitation data showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05 increasing trend with a Sen’s slope value of 0.023 mm·year−1. In the Astore basin, the river discharge and precipitation are increasing significantly (p ≤ 0.05 with a Sen’s slope value of 1.039 m3·s−1·year−1 and 0.192 mm·year−1, respectively. The snow cover analysis results suggest that the Western Himalayas (the Astore basin had a stable trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.07% year−1 and the Central Karakoram region (the Hunza River basin shows a slightly increasing trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.394% year−1. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that since both sub-basins are influenced by different climatological systems (monsoon and westerly, the results of those studies that treat the Upper Indus basin as one unit in hydrometeorological modeling should be used with caution. Furthermore, it is suggested that similar studies at the sub-basin level of the UIB will help in a better understanding of the

  14. Statistical variability of hydro-meteorological variables as indicators ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Statistical variability of hydro-meteorological variables as indicators of climate change in north-east Sokoto-Rima basin, Nigeria. ... water resources development including water supply project, agriculture and tourism in the study area. Key word: Climate change, Climatic variability, Actual evapotranspiration, Global warming ...

  15. Synthesis of LSM films deposited by dip-coating on YSZ substrate; Sintese de filmes de LSM depositados por dip-coating em substratos de YSZ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conceicao, Leandro da; Souza, Mariana M.V.M., E-mail: mmattos@eq.ufrj.b [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (EQ/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Escola de Quimica; Ribeiro, Nielson F.P. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (PEQ/COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Quimica. Nucleo de Catalise

    2010-07-01

    The dip-coating process was used to deposit films of La{sub 0.7}Sr{sub 0.}3MnO{sub 3} (LSM) used as cathode in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). In this study we evaluated the relationship between the deposition parameters such as speed of withdrawal and number of deposited layers of LSM film on a substrate of 8% YSZ commercial, and structural properties, such as thickness and formation of cracks. The structure and morphology of the films were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). With parameters set the film had good adhesion to the substrate with a thickness around 10 {mu}m, showing possible adherence problems when more than one layer is deposited on the substrate. (author)

  16. Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

  17. Use of a scenario-neutral approach to identify the key hydro-meteorological attributes that impact runoff from a natural catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

    2017-11-01

    Scenario-neutral approaches are being used increasingly for assessing the potential impact of climate change on water resource systems, as these approaches allow the performance of these systems to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. However, practical implementations of these approaches are still scarce, with a key limitation being the difficulty of generating a range of plausible future time series of hydro-meteorological data. In this study we apply a recently developed inverse stochastic generation approach to support the scenario-neutral analysis, and thus identify the key hydro-meteorological variables to which the system is most sensitive. The stochastic generator simulates synthetic hydro-meteorological time series that represent plausible future changes in (1) the average, extremes and seasonal patterns of rainfall; and (2) the average values of temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (uz) as variables that drive PET. These hydro-meteorological time series are then fed through a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulate the potential changes in runoff as a function of changes in the hydro-meteorological variables, and runoff sensitivity is assessed with both correlation and Sobol' sensitivity analyses. The method was applied to a case study catchment in South Australia, and the results showed that the most important hydro-meteorological attributes for runoff were winter rainfall followed by the annual average rainfall, while the PET-related meteorological variables had comparatively little impact. The high importance of winter rainfall can be related to the winter-dominated nature of both the rainfall and runoff regimes in this catchment. The approach illustrated in this study can greatly enhance our understanding of the key hydro-meteorological attributes and processes that are likely to drive catchment runoff under a changing climate, thus enabling the design of tailored climate impact assessments to specific

  18. Electromechanical Dynamics Simulations of Superconducting LSM Rocket Launcher System in Attractive-Mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Kinjiro; Hayashi, Kengo; Takami, Hiroshi

    1996-01-01

    Further feasibility study on a superconducting linear synchronous motor (LSM) rocket launcher system is presented on the basis of dynamic simulations of electric power, efficiency and power factor as well as the ascending motions of the launcher and rocket. The advantages of attractive-mode operation are found from comparison with repulsive-mode operation. It is made clear that the LSM rocket launcher system, of which the long-stator is divided optimally into 60 sections according to launcher speeds, can obtain high efficiency and power factor.

  19. Quantifying Parameter Sensitivity, Interaction and Transferability in Hydrologically Enhanced Versions of Noah-LSM over Transition Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosero, Enrique; Yang, Zong-Liang; Wagener, Thorsten; Gulden, Lindsey E.; Yatheendradas, Soni; Niu, Guo-Yue

    2009-01-01

    We use sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters that are most responsible for shaping land surface model (LSM) simulations and to understand the complex interactions in three versions of the Noah LSM: the standard version (STD), a version enhanced with a simple groundwater module (GW), and version augmented by a dynamic phenology module (DV). We use warm season, high-frequency, near-surface states and turbulent fluxes collected over nine sites in the US Southern Great Plains. We quantify changes in the pattern of sensitive parameters, the amount and nature of the interaction between parameters, and the covariance structure of the distribution of behavioral parameter sets. Using Sobol s total and first-order sensitivity indexes, we show that very few parameters directly control the variance of the model output. Significant parameter interaction occurs so that not only the optimal parameter values differ between models, but the relationships between parameters change. GW decreases parameter interaction and appears to improve model realism, especially at wetter sites. DV increases parameter interaction and decreases identifiability, implying it is overparameterized and/or underconstrained. A case study at a wet site shows GW has two functional modes: one that mimics STD and a second in which GW improves model function by decoupling direct evaporation and baseflow. Unsupervised classification of the posterior distributions of behavioral parameter sets cannot group similar sites based solely on soil or vegetation type, helping to explain why transferability between sites and models is not straightforward. This evidence suggests a priori assignment of parameters should also consider climatic differences.

  20. Regardless-of-Speed Superconducting LSM Controlled-Repulsive MAGLEV Vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Kinjiro; Egashira, Tatsuya; Hirai, Ryuichi

    1996-01-01

    This paper proposes a new repulsive Maglev vehicle which a superconducting linear synchronous motor (LSM) can levitate and propel simultaneously, independently of the vehicle speeds. The combined levitation and propulsion control is carried out by controlling mechanical-load angle and armature-current. Dynamic simulations show successful operations with good ride-quality by using a compact control method proposed here.

  1. Effect of sintering temperature on microstructure and performance of LSM-YSZ composite cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl Jørgensen, M.; Primdahl, S.; Bagger, C.

    2001-01-01

    the sintering temperature to 1050 degreesC the increase in the polarisation resistance was counterbalanced by a decrease in the series resistance, The optimum sintering temperature with respect to the initial performance is assumed to be where good physical and electrical contact between LSM and YSZ is obtained...

  2. Hydrometeorological Database (HMDB) for Practical Research in Ecology

    OpenAIRE

    Novakovskiy, A; Elsakov, V

    2014-01-01

    The regional HydroMeteorological DataBase (HMDB) was designed for easy access to climate data via the Internet. It contains data on various climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, pressure, humidity, and wind strength and direction) from 190 meteorological stations in Russia and bordering countries for a period of instrumental observations of over 100 years. Open sources were used to ingest data into HMDB. An analytical block was also developed to perform the most common statistical ...

  3. Impedance of SOFC electrodes: A review and a comprehensive case study on the impedance of LSM:YSZ cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmi; Hjelm, Johan

    2014-01-01

    It was shown through a comprehensive impedance spectroscopy study that the impedance of the classic composite LSM:YSZ (lanthanum strontium manganite and yttria stabilized zirconia) solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cathode can be described well with porous electrode theory. Furthermore, it was illustr......It was shown through a comprehensive impedance spectroscopy study that the impedance of the classic composite LSM:YSZ (lanthanum strontium manganite and yttria stabilized zirconia) solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cathode can be described well with porous electrode theory. Furthermore......, it was illustrated through a literature review on SOFC electrodes that porous electrode theory not only describes the classic LSM:YSZ SOFC cathode well, but SOFC electrodes in general. The extensive impedance spectroscopy study of LSM:YSZ cathodes consisted of measurements on cathodes with three different sintering...... temperatures and hence different microstructures and varying degrees of LSM/YSZ solid state interactions. LSM based composite cathodes, where YSZ was replaced with CGO was also studied in order to acquire further knowledge on the chemical compatibility between LSM and YSZ. All impedance measurements were...

  4. Electrochemical performances of LSM/YSZ composite electrode for high temperature steam electrolysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyu-Sung Sim; Ki-Kwang Bae; Chang-Hee Kim; Ki-Bae Park

    2006-01-01

    The (La 0.8 Sr 0.2 ) 0.95 MnO 3 /Yttria-stabilized Zirconia composite electrodes were investigated as anode materials for high temperature steam electrolysis using X-ray diffractometry, scanning electron microscopy, galvano-dynamic and galvano-static polarization method. For this study, the LSM perovskites were fabricated in powders by the co-precipitation method and then were mixed with 8 mol% YSZ powders in different molar ratios. The LSM/YSZ composite electrodes were deposited on 8 mol% YSZ electrolyte disks by screen printing method, followed by sintering at temperature above 1100 C. From the experimental results, it is concluded that the electrochemical properties of pure and composite electrodes are closely related to their micro-structure and operating temperature. (authors)

  5. Synthesis of LSM films deposited by dip-coating on YSZ substrate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conceicao, Leandro da; Souza, Mariana M.V.M.; Ribeiro, Nielson F.P.

    2010-01-01

    The dip-coating process was used to deposit films of La 0.7 Sr 0. 3MnO 3 (LSM) used as cathode in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). In this study we evaluated the relationship between the deposition parameters such as speed of withdrawal and number of deposited layers of LSM film on a substrate of 8% YSZ commercial, and structural properties, such as thickness and formation of cracks. The structure and morphology of the films were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). With parameters set the film had good adhesion to the substrate with a thickness around 10 μm, showing possible adherence problems when more than one layer is deposited on the substrate. (author)

  6. Improved oxidation resistance of ferritic steels with LSM coating for high temperature electrochemical applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palcut, Marián; Mikkelsen, Lars; Neufeld, Kai

    2012-01-01

    The effect of single layer La0.85Sr0.15MnO3−δ (LSM) coatings on high temperature oxidation behaviour of four commercial chromia-forming steels, Crofer 22 APU, Crofer 22 H, E-Brite and AL 29-4C, is studied. The samples were oxidized for 140–1000 h at 1123 K in flowing simulated ambient air (air + 1......% H2O) and oxygen and corrosion kinetics monitored by mass increase of the materials over time. The oxide scale microstructure and chemical composition are investigated by scanning electron microscopy/energy-dispersive spectroscopy. The kinetic data obey a parabolic rate law. The results show...... that the LSM coating acts as an oxygen transport barrier that can significantly reduce the corrosion rate....

  7. Highlights of advances in the field of hydrometeorological research brought about by the DRIHM project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caumont, Olivier; Hally, Alan; Garrote, Luis; Richard, Évelyne; Weerts, Albrecht; Delogu, Fabio; Fiori, Elisabetta; Rebora, Nicola; Parodi, Antonio; Mihalović, Ana; Ivković, Marija; Dekić, Ljiljana; van Verseveld, Willem; Nuissier, Olivier; Ducrocq, Véronique; D'Agostino, Daniele; Galizia, Antonella; Danovaro, Emanuele; Clematis, Andrea

    2015-04-01

    The FP7 DRIHM (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology, http://www.drihm.eu, 2011-2015) project intends to develop a prototype e-Science environment to facilitate the collaboration between meteorologists, hydrologists, and Earth science experts for accelerated scientific advances in Hydro-Meteorology Research (HMR). As the project comes to its end, this presentation will summarize the HMR results that have been obtained in the framework of DRIHM. The vision shaped and implemented in the framework of the DRIHM project enables the production and interpretation of numerous, complex compositions of hydrometeorological simulations of flood events from rainfall, either simulated or modelled, down to discharge. Each element of a composition is drawn from a set of various state-of-the-art models. Atmospheric simulations providing high-resolution rainfall forecasts involve different global and limited-area convection-resolving models, the former being used as boundary conditions for the latter. Some of these models can be run as ensembles, i.e. with perturbed boundary conditions, initial conditions and/or physics, thus sampling the probability density function of rainfall forecasts. In addition, a stochastic downscaling algorithm can be used to create high-resolution rainfall ensemble forecasts from deterministic lower-resolution forecasts. All these rainfall forecasts may be used as input to various rainfall-discharge hydrological models that compute the resulting stream flows for catchments of interest. In some hydrological simulations, physical parameters are perturbed to take into account model errors. As a result, six different kinds of rainfall data (either deterministic or probabilistic) can currently be compared with each other and combined with three different hydrological model engines running either in deterministic or probabilistic mode. HMR topics which are allowed or facilitated by such unprecedented sets of hydrometerological forecasts

  8. Uncertainty analysis of hydro-meteorological forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Grythe, Karl Kristian; Gao, Yukun

    2010-01-01

    Masteroppgave i informasjons- og kommunikasjonsteknologi 2010 – Universitetet i Agder, Grimstad Meteorological and hydrological forecasts are very important to human’s life which concerns agriculture, industry, transport, etc. The Nordic hydropower industry use and develop hydrological forecasting models to make predictions of rivers steam flow. The quantity of incoming stream flow is important to the electricity production because excessive water in reservoir will cause flood ...

  9. Increased cathode performance using a thin film LSM layer on a structured 8YSZ electrolyte surface

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbstritt, D.; Weber, A.; Ivers-Tiffee, E. [Karlsruhe Univ. (T.H.) (DE). Inst. fuer Werkstoffkunde der Elektrotechnik (IWE); Guntow, U.; Mueller, G. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Silicatforschung (ISC), Wuerzburg (Germany)

    2000-07-01

    A considerable part of the power losses in a SOFC single cell occurs due to the polarization resistance of the cathode/electrolyte interface. The resulting high cathodic overvoltage corresponds to an enhanced degradation of the cell. In case of a screen printed LSM cathode layer (LSM: La{sub 1-x}Sr{sub x}MnO{sub 3}) on a YSZ electrolyte substrate (YSZ: Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} stabilised ZrO{sub 2}) the cathodic reaction is generally assumed to be restricted to the three phase boundary (tpb) between cathode, oxidant and the electrolyte surface. The electrochemical active area was increased by a modification of the cathode/electrolyte interface. Single cells with a thin film LSM layer on a structured 8YSZ electrolyte showed a power output of about 0.95 W/cm{sup 2} at 0.7 V cell voltage (950 C; oxidant: air, 0.7 1/min; fuel: hydrogen, 0.5 1/min, 15% fuel utilization). (orig.)

  10. Environment-dependent regulation of spliceosome activity by the LSM2-8 complex in Arabidopsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco-López, Cristian; Hernández-Verdeja, Tamara; Perea-Resa, Carlos; Abia, David; Catalá, Rafael; Salinas, Julio

    2017-07-07

    Spliceosome activity is tightly regulated to ensure adequate splicing in response to internal and external cues. It has been suggested that core components of the spliceosome, such as the snRNPs, would participate in the control of its activity. The experimental indications supporting this proposition, however, remain scarce, and the operating mechanisms poorly understood. Here, we present genetic and molecular evidence demonstrating that the LSM2-8 complex, the protein moiety of the U6 snRNP, regulates the spliceosome activity in Arabidopsis, and that this regulation is controlled by the environmental conditions. Our results show that the complex ensures the efficiency and accuracy of constitutive and alternative splicing of selected pre-mRNAs, depending on the conditions. Moreover, miss-splicing of most targeted pre-mRNAs leads to the generation of nonsense mediated decay signatures, indicating that the LSM2-8 complex also guarantees adequate levels of the corresponding functional transcripts. Interestingly, the selective role of the complex has relevant physiological implications since it is required for adequate plant adaptation to abiotic stresses. These findings unveil an unanticipated function for the LSM2-8 complex that represents a new layer of posttranscriptional regulation in response to external stimuli in eukaryotes. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  11. Hybrid Wavelet De-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    WANG, D.; Wang, Y.; Zeng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, Wavelet De-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series.

  12. Towards A Grid Infrastructure For Hydro-Meteorological Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Schiffers

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorological Study (DRIHMS is a coordinatedaction co-funded by the European Commission. DRIHMS analyzes the main issuesthat arise when designing and setting up a pan-European Grid-based e-Infrastructure for researchactivities in the hydrologic and meteorological fields. The main outcome of the projectis represented first by a set of Grid usage patterns to support innovative hydro-meteorologicalresearch activities, and second by the implications that such patterns define for a dedicatedGrid infrastructure and the respective Grid architecture.

  13. Central Asia Water (CAWa) - A visualization platform for hydro-meteorological sensor data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stender, Vivien; Schroeder, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2014-05-01

    Water is an indispensable necessity of life for people in the whole world. In central Asia, water is the key factor for economic development, but is already a narrow resource in this region. In fact of climate change, the water problem handling will be a big challenge for the future. The regional research Network "Central Asia Water" (CAWa) aims at providing a scientific basis for transnational water resources management for the five Central Asia States Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. CAWa is part of the Central Asia Water Initiative (also known as the Berlin Process) which was launched by the Federal Foreign Office on 1 April 2008 at the "Water Unites" conference in Berlin. To produce future scenarios and strategies for sustainable water management, data on water reserves and the use of water in Central Asia must therefore be collected consistently across the region. Hydro-meteorological stations equipped with sophisticated sensors are installed in Central Asia and send their data via real-time satellite communication to the operation centre of the monitoring network and to the participating National Hydro-meteorological Services.[1] The challenge for CAWa is to integrate the whole aspects of data management, data workflows, data modeling and visualizations in a proper design of a monitoring infrastructure. The use of standardized interfaces to support data transfer and interoperability is essential in CAWa. An uniform treatment of sensor data can be realized by the OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) , which makes a number of standards and interface definitions available: Observation & Measurement (O&M) model for the description of observations and measurements, Sensor Model Language (SensorML) for the description of sensor systems, Sensor Observation Service (SOS) for obtaining sensor observations, Sensor Planning Service (SPS) for tasking sensors, Web Notification Service (WNS) for asynchronous dialogues and Sensor Alert Service

  14. Contribution of cation-π interactions to the stability of Sm/LSm oligomeric assemblies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mucić, Ivana D; Nikolić, Milan R; Stojanović, Srđan Đ

    2015-07-01

    In this work, we have analyzed the influence of cation-π interactions to the stability of Sm/LSm assemblies and their environmental preferences. The number of interactions formed by arginine is higher than lysine in the cationic group, while histidine is comparatively higher than phenylalanine and tyrosine in the π group. Arg-Tyr interactions are predominant among the various pairs analyzed. The furcation level of multiple cation-π interactions is much higher than that of single cation-π interactions in Sm/LSm interfaces. We have found hot spot residues forming cation-π interactions, and hot spot composition is similar for all aromatic residues. The Arg-Phe pair has the strongest interaction energy of -8.81 kcal mol(-1) among all the possible pairs of amino acids. The extent of burial of the residue side-chain correlates with the ΔΔG of binding for residues in the core and also for hot spot residues cation-π bonded across the interface. Secondary structure of the cation-π residues shows that Arg and Lys preferred to be in strand. Among the π residues, His prefers to be in helix, Phe prefers to be in turn, and Tyr prefers to be in strand. Stabilization centers for these proteins showed that all the five residues found in cation-π interactions are important in locating one or more of such centers. More than 50 % of the cation-π interacting residues are highly conserved. It is likely that the cation-π interactions contribute significantly to the overall stability of Sm/LSm proteins.

  15. Pore former induced porosity in LSM/CGO cathodes for electrochemical cells for flue gas purification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgaard, M.; Andersen, Kjeld Bøhm; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2012-01-01

    In this study the effect of the characteristics of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) pore formers on the porosity, pore size distribution and the air flow through the prepared lanthanum strontium manganate/gadolinium-doped cerium oxide (LSM/CGO) cathodes was investigated. Porous cathodes were obtained...... and the highest porosity measured was 46.4% with an average pore diameter of 0.98 μm. The air flow through this cathode was measured to 5.8 ml/(min mm2). Also the effect of exposure time to the solvent was tested for the most promising PMMA pore former and it was found that the average pore diameter decreases...

  16. Hydrometeorological and statistical analyses of heavy rainfall in Midwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, S.; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2012-04-01

    During the last two decades the mid-western states of the United States of America has been largely afflicted by heavy flood producing rainfall. Several of these storms seem to have similar hydrometeorological properties in terms of pattern, track, evolution, life cycle, clustering, etc. which raise the question if it is possible to derive general characteristics of the space-time structures of these heavy storms. This is important in order to understand hydrometeorological features, e.g. how storms evolve and with what frequency we can expect extreme storms to occur. In the literature, most studies of extreme rainfall are based on point measurements (rain gauges). However, with high resolution and quality radar observation periods exceeding more than two decades, it is possible to do long-term spatio-temporal statistical analyses of extremes. This makes it possible to link return periods to distributed rainfall estimates and to study precipitation structures which cause floods. However, doing these statistical frequency analyses of rainfall based on radar observations introduces some different challenges, converting radar reflectivity observations to "true" rainfall, which are not problematic doing traditional analyses on rain gauge data. It is for example difficult to distinguish reflectivity from high intensity rain from reflectivity from other hydrometeors such as hail, especially using single polarization radars which are used in this study. Furthermore, reflectivity from bright band (melting layer) should be discarded and anomalous propagation should be corrected in order to produce valid statistics of extreme radar rainfall. Other challenges include combining observations from several radars to one mosaic, bias correction against rain gauges, range correction, ZR-relationships, etc. The present study analyzes radar rainfall observations from 1996 to 2011 based the American NEXRAD network of radars over an area covering parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and

  17. Radiation monitoring of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute - Present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicherova, T.

    2008-01-01

    Network for air radioactivity monitoring was developed in the frame Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) since 1963. There are data available for many years for beta radioactivity of the air particulate and deposition. At present network consist from 26 monitoring points for measurement of dose rate and 3 monitoring points for aerosol monitors. Measuring instrument are placed in the professional stations of the selected parts of Slovakia. They are regularly verified and calibrated in the Slovak Institute for Metrology. Radiation monitoring in the SHMI is one part of the Environmental monitoring of Slovakia. All activities and operation of this system are financed from governmental budget of the Environmental monitoring. All information about this system are available on the web page http://enviroportal.sk/ in the part 'Informacny system monitoringu'. (authors)

  18. Radiation monitoring of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute - Present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicherova, T.

    2009-01-01

    Network for air radioactivity monitoring was developed in the frame Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) since 1963. There are data available for many years for beta radioactivity of the air particulate and deposition. At present network consist from 26 monitoring points for measurement of dose rate and 3 monitoring points for aerosol monitors. Measuring instrument are placed in the professional stations of the selected parts of Slovakia. They are regularly verified and calibrated in the Slovak Institute for Metrology. Radiation monitoring in the SHMI is one part of the Environmental monitoring of Slovakia. All activities and operation of this system are financed from governmental budget of the Environmental monitoring. All information about this system are available on the web page http://enviroportal.sk/ in the part 'Informacny system monitoringu'. (authors)

  19. Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Huan [University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Tang, Qiuhong [Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Kirschbaum, Dalia B. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Ward, Philip [Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

    2016-01-01

    Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

  20. A hybrid wavelet de-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dong; Borthwick, Alistair G; He, Handan; Wang, Yuankun; Zhu, Jieyu; Lu, Yuan; Xu, Pengcheng; Zeng, Xiankui; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Liu, Jiufu; Zou, Ying; He, Ruimin

    2018-01-01

    Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, wavelet de-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to three other generic methods, the results generated by WD-REPA model presented invariably smaller error measures which means the forecasting capability of the WD-REPA model is better than other models. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Hydro-meteorological extreme events in the 18th century in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragoso, Marcelo; João Alcoforado, Maria; Taborda, João Paulo

    2013-04-01

    The present work is carried out in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources, 17th-19th century)", and is devoted to the study of hydro-meteorological extreme events during the last 350 years, in order to understand how they have changed in time and compare them with current analogues. More specifically, the results selected to this presentation will focus on some hydro-meteorological extreme events of the 18th century, like severe droughts, heavy precipitation episodes and windstorms. One of the most noteworthy events was the winterstorm Bárbara (3rd to 6th December 1739), already studied in prior investigations (Taborda et al, 2004; Pfister et al, 2010), a devastating storm with strong impacts in Portugal caused by violent winds and heavy rainfall. Several other extreme events were detected by searching different documentary archives, including individual, administrative and ecclesiastic sources. Moreover, a more detailed insight to the 1783-1787 period will be made with regard the Lisbon region, taking into consideration the availability of information for daily meteorological observations as well as documentary evidences, like descriptions from Gazeta de Lisboa, the periodic with more continuous publication in the 18thcentury. Key-words: Instrumental data, Documentary data, Extreme events, Klimhist Project, Portugal References Pfister, C., Garnier, E., Alcoforado, M.J., Wheeler, D. Luterbacher, J. Nunes, M.F., Taborda, J.P. (2010) The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe, Climatic Change, 101, 1-2, 281-310 Taborda, JP; Alcoforado, MJ and Garcia, JC (2004) O Clima do Sul de Portugal no Séc.XVIII, Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Área de de Investigação de Geo-Ecologia, relatório no 2

  2. Radar-driven High-resolution Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massimo Rossa, Andrea; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    Space and time scales of flash floods are such that flash flood forecasting and warning systems depend upon the accurate real-time provision of rainfall information, high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and the use of hydrological models. Currently available high-resolution NWP model models can potentially provide warning forecasters information on the future evolution of storms and their internal structure, thereby increasing convective-scale warning lead times. However, it is essential that the model be started with a very accurate representation of on-going convection, which calls for assimilation of high-resolution rainfall data. This study aims to assess the feasibility of using carefully checked radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for assimilation into NWP and hydrological models. The hydrometeorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a hydrologic-hydraulic models built upon the concept of geomorphological transport. Radar rainfall observations are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood event which impacted the coastal area of north-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the Dese river, a 90 km2 catchment flowing to the Venice lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including beam attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar QPE in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant, in that the main individual organized convective systems were successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, incorrectly localized precipitation in the model reference run without rainfall assimilation was correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the

  3. Vodacom and MTN’s brand positioning based on the perceptions of a group of LSM seven to ten respondents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hennie Mentz

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates Vodacom and MTN’s brand positioning based on the perceptions of a group of LSM seven to ten respondents who are principal estate agents in Gauteng. An empirical study was conducted. The profile of the sample in terms of access to telecommunication-related services confirmed that of individuals in the LSM seven to ten groups with a skew towards LSM ten. As a minimum requirement for the target market brands in the category should be strongly associated with the statements market leader, local brand, technologically sophisticated brand, trusted brand, South African brand and prestigious/upmarket brand. At an overall level, Vodacom has established a more favourable brand positioning compared to MTN. However, both Vodacom and MTN have failed to establish a personal brand relationship with the target market.

  4. Performance of a solid oxide fuel cell with cathode containing a functional layer of LSM/YSZ film; Desempenho de uma celula a combustivel de oxido solido com catodo contendo uma camada funcional de filme LSM/YSZ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pires, Filipe Oliveira; Domingues, Rosana Z.; Brant, Marcia C.; Silva, Charles L.; Matencio, Tulio [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Dept. de Quimica]. E-mail: filipequiufmg@ufmg.br

    2008-07-01

    Performance of a SOFC may be evaluated by using the AC-Impedance and measuring power (P V x I). The objective of this study was to compare the performance of a fuel cell with LSM as a cathode and another one containing an additional functional composite film LSM/YSZ between the LSM and YSZ. Also it was studied variation in second cell resistance and power according to the temperature, hydrogen flux and operation time. For both cells platinum was used as anode. At 800 deg C was observed, in open current circuit, when the composite layer was introduced a decrease in resistance and high power. These results show an improvement of SOFC cathode performance with the introduction of composite LSM/YSZ layer. The maximum performance of the cell was achieved with 100 mL/min hydrogen flow at 800 deg C. The experiments also showed a performance improvement at 850 deg C. The cell behavior was stable during 318 hours of test. (author)

  5. Microstructure degradation of LSM-YSZ cathode in SOFCs operated at various conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yi-Lin; Thydén, Karl Tor Sune; Chen, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Systematic microstructural analyses have been carried out on a series of technological SOFCs that went through long-term cell tests with various operating parameters including temperature, current load and time length under current. For the LSM-YSZ cathode, a number of microstructure degradation...... mechanisms have been identified. And it has been observed that different mechanisms dominate the degradation process under different test conditions. The severe cathode degradation at 750 °C operation with high current density is attributed to a loss of the cathode/electrolyte interface stability....... For the cells tested at 850 °C, the interface stability is maintained due to further sintering during cell operation. A cell test lasting for 2 years (17500 h) at 850 °C with a moderate current density (not greater than 1 A/cm2) has shown that the cathode microstructure is fairly robust to the degradation...

  6. Neutron measurements in the FRX-C/LSM magnetic compression experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chrien, R.E.; Baron, M.H.

    1989-01-01

    Neutron measurements are being pursued as an ion temperature diagnostic in the FRX-C/LSM Magnetic Compression Experiment. One can easily see that the d-d neutron emission is a sensitive measure of ion heating during adiabatic magnetic compression of FRCs. The reaction rate may be written as R = (1/2) n N left-angle σv right-angle, where n and N are the deuterium density and inventory. The fusion reactivity varies as left-angle σv right-angle ∝ T 5.6 for T ≅ 1 keV. For adiabatic compression, n ∝ B 1.2 and T ∝ B 0.8 so R ∝ B 5.7 in the absence of losses. The neutron yield is also sensitive to the time duration that the plasma remains near its peak temperature. 4 refs., 4 figs

  7. Life prediction for white OLED based on LSM under lognormal distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianping; Liu, Fang; Liu, Yu; Wu, Helen; Zhu, Wenqing; Wu, Wenli; Wu, Liang

    2012-09-01

    In order to acquire the reliability information of White Organic Light Emitting Display (OLED), three groups of OLED constant stress accelerated life tests (CSALTs) were carried out to obtain failure data of samples. Lognormal distribution function was applied to describe OLED life distribution, and the accelerated life equation was determined by Least square method (LSM). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed to verify whether the white OLED life meets lognormal distribution or not. Author-developed software was employed to predict the average life and the median life. The numerical results indicate that the white OLED life submits to lognormal distribution, and that the accelerated life equation meets inverse power law completely. The estimated life information of the white OLED provides manufacturers and customers with important guidelines.

  8. FRC [field-reversed configuration] translation studies on FRX-C/LSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rej, D.; Barnes, G.; Baron, M.

    1989-01-01

    In preparation for upcoming compression-heating experiments, field-reversed configurations (FRCs) have been translated out of the FRX-C/LSM θ-pinch source, and into the 0.4-m-id, 6.7-m-long translation region formerly used on FRX-C/T. Unlike earlier experiments FRCs are generated without magnetic tearing in the larger FRX-C/LSM source (nominal coil id = 0.70 m, length = 2 m); larger, lower-energy-density FRCs are formed: r/sub s/ ≅ 0.17 m, B/sub ext/ ≅ 0.35 T, ≅ 7 /times/ 10 20 m/sup /minus/3/ and T/sub e/ + T/sub i/ ≅ 400 eV. An initial 3-mtorr D 2 pressure is introduced by either static or puff fill. Asymmetric fields from auxiliary end coils (used for non-tearing formation) provide the accelerating force on the FRC, thereby eliminating the need for a conical θ-pinch coil. An important feature is the abrupt 44% decrease in the flux-conserving wall radius at the transition between the θ-pinch and translation region, similar to that in the compressor. In this paper we review a variety of issues addressed by the recent translation experiments: translation dynamics; translation through a modulated magnetic field; stabilization of the n = 2 rotational instability by weak helical quadrupole fields; and confinement properties. Results from internal magnetic field measurements in translating FRCs may be found in a companion paper. 10 refs., 5 figs

  9. Polarization Induced Changes in LSM Thin Film Electrode Composition Observed by In Operando Raman Spectroscopy and TOF-SIMS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McIntyre, Melissa D.; Traulsen, Marie Lund; Norrman, Kion

    2015-01-01

    Polarization induced changes in LSM electrode composition were investigated by utilizing in operando Raman spectroscopy and post mortem TOF-SIMS depth profiling. Experiments were conducted on cells with 160 nm thick (La0.85Sr0.15)0.9MnO3±δ thin film electrodes in 10% O2 at 700 °C under various...

  10. Assessment extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvornikov, Anton; Martyanov, Stanislav; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Eremina, Tatjana; Isaev, Alexey; Sein, Dmitry

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, are estimated paying a special attention to the area of the future construction of nuclear power plant (NPP) "Hanhikivi-1" (24° 16' E, 64° 32' N). To produce these estimates, long-term observations and results from numerical models of water and ice circulation and wind waves are used. It is estimated that the average annual air temperature in the vicinity of the station is +3° C, summer and winter extreme temperature is equal to 33.3° C and -41.5° C, respectively. Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous (in terms of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area) is a north-west wind with the direction of 310°. The maximum height of the waves in the Gulf of Bothnia near the NPP for this wind direction with wind velocity of 10 m/s is 1.2-1.4 m. According to the model estimates, the highest possible level of the sea near the NPP is 248 cm, the minimum level, -151 cm, respectively for the western and eastern winds. These estimates are in good agreement with observations on the sea level for the period 1922-2015 at the nearest hydrometeorological station Raahe (Finland). In order to assess the likely impact of the NPP on the marine environment numerical experiments for the cold (2010) and warm year (2014) have been carried out. These calculations have shown that permanent release of heat into the marine environment from the operating NPP for the cold year (2010) will increase the temperature in the upper layer of 0-250m zone by 10°C in winter - spring and by 8°C in summer - early autumn, and in the bottom layer of 0-250m zone by 5°C in winter - spring and 3°C in summer - early autumn. For the warm year (2014), these temperature changes are smaller. Ice cover in both cases will disappear in two - kilometer vicinity of the NPP. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future

  11. HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT IN THE SINGKARAK BASIN, WEST SUMATRA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasdi Subagyono

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Studi tentang karakteristik hidro-meteorologi telah dilakukan di wilayah danau Singkarak pada 2006-2007 dengan melibatkan partisipasi masyarakat. Stasiun iklim otomatis dan pengukur tinggi muka air otomatis dipasang untuk memonitor data hidrologi dan meteorologi di wilayah cekungan Singkarak. Data meteorologi dianalisa untuk mengetahui karakteristik iklim di wilayah sekitar danau. Model hidrologi GR4J dan H2U diaplikasikan untuk simulasi discharge dan untuk mengkarakterisasi proses hidrologi di wilayah danau. Simulasi model aliran divalidasi pada musim hujan. Alternatif pengelolaan lahan diformulasikan berdasarkan karakteristik hidrologi daerah aliran sungai di sekitar cekungan Singkarak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa daerah tangkapan di sekitar danau Singkarak memiliki respon yang tinggi terhadap jumlah dan intensitas hujan. Hidrograp menunjukkan peningkatan yang tajam dari discharge segera setelah curah hujan mulai dan menurun relative lamban ketika curah hujan berhenti. Untuk pengelolaan lahan secara berkelanjutan di wilayah danau Singkarak, konservasi lahan dan air harus menjadi prioritas utama. Wanatani dapat diimplementasikan sebagai alternatif sistem pertanaman oleh penduduk lokal. Karena potensi kelangkaan air bisa terjadi pada periode kering, panen air dan konservasi air dapat diterapkan sebagai opsi yang dapat dikombinasikan dalam sistem pengelolaan lahan.   Hydro-meteorological processes of the Singkarak basin has been studied involving participatory of local community in 2006-2007. Automatic weather station (AWS and automatic water level recorder (AWLR were installed to record meteorological and hydrological data within the Singkarak Basin. Meteorological data was analyzed to understand the meteorological characteristic surrounding the Basin area. Model of GR4J and H2U were used to simulated discharge and to understand the hydrological processes within the basin. The validation of simulated discharge was done in the wet season

  12. Peran LSM Dalam Resolusi Konflik Tapal Batas Antara Nagari Sumpur Dengan Nagari Bungo Tanjuang, Kabupaten Tanah Datar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Rahmadani

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Third parties in the resolution of conflictwas expected to change the behavior of the parties in conflict, even pushed the parties toward an agreement to end the conflict. NGO as the third party is seen independent and can be fair in the resolution of conflict, can do some attempts to encourage the parties in conflict toward an agreement.One example of conflict involving NGO in an effort to resolve the boundary conflicts between Nagari Sumpur and Nagari Bungo Tanjuang, regency of Tanah Datar. Assignment NGO as mediator in resolution of conflict after several attempts taken by the government. This article explained the various efforts and achievement has done by NGO as mediator resolution of conflict both nagari until the formation of representative group become key success in mediation. In addition in this article is also explained the reason NGO that has not been able to achieve an aggrement in resolution of conflict both nagari. Pihak ketiga dalam resolusi konflik diharapkan dapat merubah perilaku para pihak yang berkonflik, bahkan mendorong para pihak menuju kesepakatan untuk mengakhiri konflik. LSM sebagai pihak ketiga dipandang independen dan dapat bersikap adil dalam resolusi konflik, dapat melakukan beberapa upaya untuk mendorong pihak yang berkonflik menuju kesepakatan. Salah satu contoh konflik yang melibatkan LSM dalam penyelesaiannya adalah konflik tapal batas antara Nagari Sumpur dengan Nagari Bungo Tanjuang, Kabupaten Tanah Datar. Penunjukan LSM sebagai mediator dalam penyelesaian konflik setelah beberapa upaya yang ditempuh oleh beberapa pihak dari pemerintahan. Tulisan ini memaparkan berbagai upaya dan pencapaian yang telah dilakukan LSM sebagai mediator penyelesaian konflik kedua nagari hingga terbentuknya perwakilan kelompok yang menjadi kunci keberhasilan dalam mediasi. Selain itu dalam tulisan ini juga memaparkan alasan LSM yang belum mampu mencapai kesepakatan dalam penyelesaian konflik kedua nagari.

  13. An End-to-End System to Enable Quick, Easy and Inexpensive Deployment of Hydrometeorological Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celicourt, P.; Piasecki, M.

    2014-12-01

    The high cost of hydro-meteorological data acquisition, communication and publication systems along with limited qualified human resources is considered as the main reason why hydro-meteorological data collection remains a challenge especially in developing countries. Despite significant advances in sensor network technologies which gave birth to open hardware and software, low-cost (less than $50) and low-power (in the order of a few miliWatts) sensor platforms in the last two decades, sensors and sensor network deployment remains a labor-intensive, time consuming, cumbersome, and thus expensive task. These factors give rise for the need to develop a affordable, simple to deploy, scalable and self-organizing end-to-end (from sensor to publication) system suitable for deployment in such countries. The design of the envisioned system will consist of a few Sensed-And-Programmed Arduino-based sensor nodes with low-cost sensors measuring parameters relevant to hydrological processes and a Raspberry Pi micro-computer hosting the in-the-field back-end data management. This latter comprises the Python/Django model of the CUAHSI Observations Data Model (ODM) namely DjangODM backed by a PostgreSQL Database Server. We are also developing a Python-based data processing script which will be paired with the data autoloading capability of Django to populate the DjangODM database with the incoming data. To publish the data, the WOFpy (WaterOneFlow Web Services in Python) developed by the Texas Water Development Board for 'Water Data for Texas' which can produce WaterML web services from a variety of back-end database installations such as SQLite, MySQL, and PostgreSQL will be used. A step further would be the development of an appealing online visualization tool using Python statistics and analytics tools (Scipy, Numpy, Pandas) showing the spatial distribution of variables across an entire watershed as a time variant layer on top of a basemap.

  14. Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogaard, Thom; Greco, Roberto

    2018-01-01

    Many shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated. Therefore, regional landslide hazard assessment is often based on empirically derived precipitation intensity-duration (ID) thresholds and landslide inventories. Generally, two features of precipitation events are plotted and labeled with (shallow) landslide occurrence or non-occurrence. Hereafter, a separation line or zone is drawn, mostly in logarithmic space. The practical background of ID is that often only meteorological information is available when analyzing (non-)occurrence of shallow landslides and, at the same time, it could be that precipitation information is a good proxy for both meteorological trigger and hydrological cause. Although applied in many case studies, this approach suffers from many false positives as well as limited physical process understanding. Some first steps towards a more hydrologically based approach have been proposed in the past, but these efforts received limited follow-up.Therefore, the objective of our paper is to (a) critically analyze the concept of precipitation ID thresholds for shallow landslides and debris flows from a hydro-meteorological point of view and (b) propose a trigger-cause conceptual framework for lumped regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment based on published examples and associated discussion. We discuss the ID thresholds in relation to return periods of precipitation, soil physics, and slope and catchment water balance. With this paper, we aim to contribute to the development of a stronger conceptual model for regional landslide hazard assessment based on physical process understanding and empirical data.

  15. Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. K. Meyer

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN. For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day−1. Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day−1. The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

  16. Deletion of the Sm1 encoding motif in the lsm gene results in distinct changes in the transcriptome and enhanced swarming activity of Haloferax cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Lisa-Katharina; Benz, Juliane; Fischer, Susan; Alstetter, Martina; Jaschinski, Katharina; Hilker, Rolf; Becker, Anke; Allers, Thorsten; Soppa, Jörg; Marchfelder, Anita

    2015-10-01

    Members of the Sm protein family are important for the cellular RNA metabolism in all three domains of life. The family includes archaeal and eukaryotic Lsm proteins, eukaryotic Sm proteins and archaeal and bacterial Hfq proteins. While several studies concerning the bacterial and eukaryotic family members have been published, little is known about the archaeal Lsm proteins. Although structures for several archaeal Lsm proteins have been solved already more than ten years ago, we still do not know much about their biological function, however one can confidently propose that the archaeal Lsm proteins will also be involved in RNA metabolism. Therefore, we investigated this protein in the halophilic archaeon Haloferax volcanii. The Haloferax genome encodes a single Lsm protein, the lsm gene overlaps and is co-transcribed with the gene for the ribosomal L37.eR protein. Here, we show that the reading frame of the lsm gene contains a promoter which regulates expression of the overlapping rpl37R gene. This rpl37R specific promoter ensures high expression of the rpl37R gene in exponential growth phase. To investigate the biological function of the Lsm protein we generated a lsm deletion mutant that had the coding sequence for the Sm1 motif removed but still contained the internal promoter for the downstream rpl37R gene. The transcriptome of this deletion mutant was compared to the wild type transcriptome, revealing that several genes are down-regulated and many genes are up-regulated in the deletion strain. Northern blot analyses confirmed down-regulation of two genes. In addition, the deletion strain showed a gain of function in swarming, in congruence with the up-regulation of transcripts encoding proteins required for motility. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. P. Guillod

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM. Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i a historical baseline (1900–2006, (ii five near-future scenarios (2020–2049 and (iii five far-future scenarios (2070–2099. The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days, the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09 but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and

  18. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-01-01

    Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions

  19. Radar-driven high-resolution hydro-meteorological forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossa, Andrea M.; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

    2010-11-01

    SummaryThis study aims to assess the feasibility of assimilating carefully checked radar rainfall estimates into a numerical weather prediction (NWP) to extend the forecasting lead time for an extreme flash flood. The hydro-meteorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a coupled hydrological-hydraulic model. Radar rainfall estimates are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood which impacted the coastal area of North-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the 90 km2 Dese river basin draining to the Venice Lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including rain-induced signal attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar rainfall estimates in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant. The main individual organized convective systems are successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, high-intensity incorrectly localized precipitation is correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the highest rainfall intensities computed after assimilation underestimate the observed values by 20% and 50% at a scale of 20 km and 5 km, respectively. The positive impact of assimilating radar rainfall estimates is carried over into the free forecast for about 2-5 h, depending on when the forecast was started. The positive impact is larger when the main mesoscale convective system is present in the initial conditions. The improvements in the precipitation forecasts are propagated to the river flow simulations, with an extension of the forecasting lead time up to 3 h.

  20. Identification and diagnosis of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological structure of heavy precipitation induced floods in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, M.; Hao, X.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme floods have a long history of being an important cause of death and destruction worldwide. It is estimated by Munich RE and Swiss RE that floods and severe storms dominate all other natural hazards globally in terms of average annual property loss and human fatalities. The top 5 most disastrous floods in the period from 1900 to 2015, ranked by economic damage, are all in the Asian monsoon region. This study presents an interdisciplinary approach integrating hydrometeorology, atmospheric science and state-of-the-art space-time statistics and modeling to investigate the association between the space-time characteristics of floods, precipitation and atmospheric moisture transport in a statistical and physical framework, using tropical moisture export dataset and curve clustering algorithm to study the source-to-destination features; explore the teleconnected climate regulations on the moisture formation process at different timescales (PDO, ENSO and MJO), and study the role of the synoptic-to-large atmospheric steering on the moisture transport and convergence.

  1. Analysis of impacts on hydrometeorological extremes in the Senegal River Basin from REMO RCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galiano, Sandra Garcia; Osorio, Juan Diego Giraldo [Technical Univ. of Cartagena, Dept. of Thermal Engineering and Fluids, Cartagena (Spain)

    2010-06-15

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability. The precipitation latitudinal gradient determines agricultural activities. The cultivated area of the Sahel is a densely populated region, whereas flood recession agriculture is practiced in the Senegal River Valley. The present study analyses both spatial-temporal rainfall patterns of the REMO Regional Climate Model (RCM) and observed rainfall data, focusing in particular on extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena. An analysis of simulated daily rainfall data was performed to determine the frequency and magnitude of length of dry spells, as well as the extreme rainfall events. A projected annual decrease in rainfall on horizon 2050 could be explained by two factors: the decrease in the percentage of rainy days on both west and north sides of the basin, and the decrease of precipitation amount for rainy days in the southern basin. Finally, an increase in the frequency of dry spell in the monsoon season by 2050 is projected. Such findings are significant in a framework of strategies for water resources management and planning at basin scale, in order to build adaptive capacity. (orig.)

  2. First results from the NEWS-G direct dark matter search experiment at the LSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, Q.; Asner, D.; Bard, J.-P.; Brossard, A.; Cai, B.; Chapellier, M.; Clark, M.; Corcoran, E. C.; Dandl, T.; Dastgheibi-Fard, A.; Dering, K.; Di Stefano, P.; Durnford, D.; Gerbier, G.; Giomataris, I.; Gorel, P.; Gros, M.; Guillaudin, O.; Hoppe, E. W.; Kamaha, A.; Katsioulas, I.; Kelly, D. G.; Martin, R. D.; McDonald, J.; Muraz, J.-F.; Mols, J.-P.; Navick, X.-F.; Papaevangelou, T.; Piquemal, F.; Roth, S.; Santos, D.; Savvidis, I.; Ulrich, A.; Vazquez de Sola Fernandez, F.; Zampaolo, M.

    2018-01-01

    New Experiments With Spheres-Gas (NEWS-G) is a direct dark matter detection experiment using Spherical Proportional Counters (SPCs) with light noble gases to search for low-mass Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs). We report the results from the first physics run taken at the Laboratoire Souterrain de Modane (LSM) with SEDINE, a 60 cm diameter prototype SPC operated with a mixture of Ne + CH4 (0.7%) at 3.1 bars for a total exposure of 9.6 kg · days. New constraints are set on the spin-independent WIMP-nucleon scattering cross-section in the sub-GeV/c2 mass region. We exclude cross-sections above 4.4 ×10-37cm2 at 90% confidence level (C.L.) for a 0.5 GeV/c2 WIMP. The competitive results obtained with SEDINE are promising for the next phase of the NEWS-G experiment: a 140 cm diameter SPC to be installed at SNOLAB by summer 2018.

  3. Radiation monitoring network of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicherova, T.

    2005-01-01

    In 2000 Centre of Partial monitoring system 'Radioactivity of environment' was established on Slovak Hydrometeorology Institute (SHMI). Radiation monitoring network is one part of Radiation monitoring network of the Slovak Republic. At present SHMI operates in its monitoring network 23 detectors GammaTracer fy Genitron, one mobile detector and one stan by detector. All active detectors are placed in the professional meteorological stations in the selected parts of Slovakia. First one of these detectors was installed in 1999 and they replaced former type of detector (FAG). Last two detectors were installed in 2002. Detector GammaTracer has range of measurement from 20 nSv/h to 10 Sv/h. The detectors are calibrated every 2 years in the Slovak Institute of Metrology in compliance with the calibration plan. SHMI operates 4 aerosol monitors in Hurbanovo, Lucenec, Stropkov and Liesek. Filter 8 from these monitors are analysed in the Institute of Public Health (Cs-137, Be-7). On the base of bilateral agreement between the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water-Management and the Slovak Ministry of Environment Austrian side gave into the ownership of the Slovak side an automatic aerosol monitor AMS-02 including container and weather station. This monitor was installed in meteorological station Jaslovske Bohunice on 4-th October 2001. The Slovak Ministry of Environment provides the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water-Management with the readings of this monitor, free of charge, for at least 3 years and vice versa, the Austrian side gives the readings of the Austrian aerosol monitors to the Slovak Ministry of Environment free of charge. At present national monitoring center in Bratislava-Koliba is connected via ISDN line with Jaslovske Bohunice and Austrian center providing the data exchange. Radiation data (dose rate in the unit nSv/h) are collected via the Institute network to the MSS (message switch system) in the

  4. The North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017: A New Look at an Old Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    Quantifying moisture recycling and determining water vapor source regions for deep convective precipitation have been problematic, particular in tropical continental regions. More than an academic concern, modeling convective precipitation, from cloud-resolving to global climate models, depends critically on properly representing atmospheric water vapor transport, its vertical distribution, as well as surface latent heat flux contributions. The North American Monsoon region, given its complex topography, proximity to warm oceans, striking vegetation "green up" and oftentimes subtle dynamical forcing is particular challenging in this regard. Recent studies, employing modeling and observational approaches, give a prominent role for moisture recycling in fomenting deep convective precipitation. Likewise, these studies argue for the increased importance of transport from the Gulf of Mexico/Central America and the Atlantic Ocean, relative to the Pacific Ocean/Gulf of California. In this presentation, we critically review these studies which served to motivate the NAM GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017, detailed here. This bi-national (Mexico-US) 3-month campaign to examine water vapor source regions, and specifically, land-surface water vapor fluxes consists of 10 experimental GPS meteorological sites as well as TLALOCNet and Suominet GPS sites in the Mexican states of Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Baja California and in Arizona and New Mexico. Near Rayón Sonora, inside the larger regional GPSmet array, a 30km eddy covariance flux tower triangular array, with collocated GPSmet, measures continuous energy fluxes and precipitable water vapor. Preliminary results examining the local flux contribution in the triangular array to total precipitable water vapor measured are presented. Further research is then outlined.

  5. Forecasting skills of the ensemble hydro-meteorological system for the Po river floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Pecora, Silvano; Tonelli, Fabrizio

    2013-04-01

    The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of

  6. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fundel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.

    The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive

  7. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2013-01-01

    Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

  8. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Simulating future land use changes remains a difficult task, due to uncontrollable and uncertain driving forces of change. Scenario development emerged as a tool to address these limitations. Scenarios offer the exploration of possible futures and environmental consequences, and enable the analysis of possible decisions. Therefore, there is increasing interest of both decision makers and researchers to apply scenarios when studying future land use changes and their consequences. The uncertainties related to generating land use change scenarios are among others defined by the accuracy of data, identification and quantification of driving forces, and the relation between expected future changes and the corresponding spatial pattern. To address the issue of data and intangible driving forces, several studies have applied collaborative, participatory techniques when developing future scenarios. The involvement of stakeholders can lead to incorporating a broader spectrum of professional values and experience. Moreover, stakeholders can help to provide missing data, improve detail, uncover mistakes, and offer alternatives. Thus, collaborative scenarios can be considered as more reliable and relevant. Collaborative scenario development has been applied to study a variety of issues in environmental sciences on different spatial and temporal scales. Still, these participatory approaches are rarely spatially explicit, making them difficult to apply when analysing changes to hydro-meteorological risk on a local scale. Spatial explicitness is needed to identify potentially critical areas of land use change, leading to locations where the risk might increase. In order to allocate collaboratively developed scenarios of land change, we combined participatory modeling with geosimulation in a multi-step scenario generation framework. We propose a framework able to develop scenarios that are plausible, can overcome data inaccessibility, address intangible and external driving forces

  9. Dynamic behavior of impurities and native components in model LSM microelectrodes on YSZ

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norrman, Kion; Hansen, Karin Vels; Jacobsen, Torben

    2015-01-01

    behavior of the native components (La, Sr, Mn) and selected impurities (Si, K, Na) both laterally and in-depth. Manganese was found to be especially mobile and showed both segregation onto the electrolyte as a result of temperature and polarization and dissolution into the electrolyte below...

  10. Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Vidal

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc. on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI. Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow. Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990 to short hot and dry periods (2003. Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly

  11. Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees

    2013-04-01

    In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and

  12. Development of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting as AN Essential Component of the Early Flood Warning System:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manukalo, V.

    2012-12-01

    Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of

  13. Documentary evidence of economic character as a source for the study of hydrometeorological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, K.; Brázdil, R.; Valášek, H.

    2009-04-01

    Various human activities, such as agriculture, forestry and water management, have always been influenced by climate variability and hydrometeorological extremes. From this reason historical economic records often include information about contemporaneous weather as well as descriptions of its impacts. This study deals with the interpretation of hydrometeorological extremes for the territory of Moravia (eastern part of the Czech Republic) derived from taxation records and reports of domain and estate administrators. Information obtained reflects the occurrence of floods, convective storms (including hailstorms), windstorms, late spring and early autumn frosts. Based on data from eight domains or estates, frequency series of floods and convective storms (including hailstorms) were compiled for the period 1650-1849. Detail analysis of disastrous weather event from 10 August 1694 in the Pernštejn domain is used to demonstrate the potential of such data for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts on human activity. Another example is analysis of data about tax reduction due to hailstorm damage on agriculture crops in Moravia in the period 1896-1906.

  14. Synthesis of modified calcium aluminate with lanthanum manganite (LSM) for possible use in solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC); Sintese de aluminato de calcio modificado com manganita de lantanio (LSM) para possivel utilizacao em celula combustivel de oxido solido (SOFC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veiga, F.C.T.; Jurado, J.; Sousa, V.C. de, E-mail: faili.cintia@gmail.com [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia. Departamento de Materiais; Cava, S.S. [Universidade Federal de Pelotas, RS (Brazil)

    2016-07-01

    The fuel cells solid oxide (SOFC) is made up of three basic elements: two electrodes, the anode and cathode and a conductive electrolyte ions. The objective of this work consists of calcium aluminate synthesis modified LSM in a 1: 1 by combustion synthesis method with a view to its use as a cathode in SOFC. The characterization of the post was carried out by the methods of XRD, TEM and EIS. After heat treatment at 1200°C/4 hours it was possible to obtain Ca0.5Sr1.5MnO4 and CaMnO2.56 phases. The material showed a semiconductor characteristics because with increasing temperature the electrical resistance value tends to decrease obtaining electrical conductivity greater than 10-6S / cm featuring an extrinsic semiconductor with an activation energy of 0.12. Therefore, with an activation energy value within the range of materials used for a SOFC cathodes. (author)

  15. Supporting Hydrometeorological Research and Applications with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Products and Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, D.; Vollmer, B.; Deshong, B.; MacRitchie, K.; Greene, M.; Kempler, S.

    2016-01-01

    Precipitation is an important dataset in hydrometeorological research and applications such as flood modeling, drought monitoring, etc. On February 27, 2014, the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was launched to provide the next-generation global observations of rain and snow (http:pmm.nasa.govGPM). The GPM mission consists of an international network of satellites in which a GPM Core Observatory satellite carries both active and passive microwave instruments to measure precipitation and serve as a reference standard, to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of other research and operational satellites. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) hosts and distributes GPM data. The GES DISC is home to the data archive for the GPM predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). GPM products currently available include the following:1. Level-1 GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and partner radiometer products2. Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) GMI and partner products (Level-2 and Level-3)3. GPM dual-frequency precipitation radar and their combined products (Level-2 and Level-3)4. Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products (early, late, and final run)GPM data can be accessed through a number of data services (e.g., Simple Subset Wizard, OPeNDAP, WMS, WCS, ftp, etc.). A newly released Unified User Interface or UUI is a single interface to provide users seamless access to data, information and services. For example, a search for precipitation products will not only return TRMM and GPM products, but also other global precipitation products such as MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications), GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation Systems), etc.New features and capabilities have been recently added in GIOVANNI to allow exploring and inter-comparing GPM IMERG (Integrated Multi-satelliE Retrievals for GPM) half-hourly and monthly precipitation

  16. TLALOCNet continuous GPS-Met Array in Mexico supporting the 2017 NAM GPS Hydrometeorological Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabral-Cano, E.; Salazar-Tlaczani, L.; Adams, D. K.; Vivoni, E. R.; Grutter, M.; Serra, Y. L.; DeMets, C.; Galetzka, J.; Feaux, K.; Mattioli, G. S.; Miller, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    TLALOCNet is a network of continuous GPS and meteorology stations in Mexico to study atmospheric and solid earth processes. This recently completed network spans most of Mexico with a strong coverage emphasis on southern and western Mexico. This network, funded by NSF, CONACyT and UNAM, recently built 40 cGPS-Met sites to EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory standards and upgraded 25 additional GPS stations. TLALOCNet provides open and freely available raw GPS data, and high frequency surface meteorology measurements, and time series of daily positions. This is accomplished through the development of the TLALOCNet data center (http://tlalocnet.udg.mx) that serves as a collection and distribution point. This data center is based on UNAVCO's Dataworks-GSAC software and also works as part of UNAVCO's seamless archive for discovery, sharing, and access to GPS data. The TLALOCNet data center also contains contributed data from several regional GPS networks in Mexico for a total of 100+ stations. By using the same protocols and structure as the UNAVCO and other COCONet regional data centers, the scientific community has the capability of accessing data from the largest Mexican GPS network. This archive provides a fully queryable and scriptable GPS and Meteorological data retrieval point. In addition, real-time 1Hz streams from selected TLALOCNet stations are available in BINEX, RTCM 2.3 and RTCM 3.1 formats via the Networked Transport of RTCM via Internet Protocol (NTRIP) for real-time seismic and weather forecasting applications. TLALOCNet served as a GPS-Met backbone for the binational Mexico-US North American Monsoon GPS Hydrometeorological Network 2017 campaign experiment. This innovative experiment attempts to address water vapor source regions and land-surface water vapor flux contributions to precipitation (i.e., moisture recycling) during the 2017 North American Monsoon in Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Arizona. Models suggest that moisture recycling is

  17. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests: Hydrometeorological variability in three neighbouring catchments with different forest cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Beatriz H.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Ganzeveld, Laurens; Hegger, Zita; Leemans, Rik

    2017-09-01

    Mountain areas are characterized by a large heterogeneity in hydrological and meteorological conditions. This heterogeneity is currently poorly represented by gauging networks and by the coarse scale of global and regional climate and hydrological models. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCFs) are found in a narrow elevation range and are characterized by persistent fog. Their water balance depends on local and upwind temperatures and moisture, therefore, changes in these parameters will alter TMCF hydrology. Until recently the hydrological functioning of TMCFs was mainly studied in coastal regions, while continental TMCFs were largely ignored. This study contributes to fill this gap by focusing on a TMCF which is located on the northern eastern Andes at an elevation of 1550-2300 m asl, in the Orinoco river basin highlands. In this study, we describe the spatial and seasonal meteorological variability, analyse the corresponding catchment hydrological response to different land cover, and perform a sensitivity analysis on uncertainties related to rainfall interpolation, catchment area estimation and streamflow measurements. Hydro-meteorological measurements, including hourly solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow, were collected from June 2013 to May 2014 at three gauged neighbouring catchments with contrasting TMCF/grassland cover and less than 250 m elevation difference. We found wetter and less seasonally contrasting conditions at higher elevations, indicating a positive relation between elevation and fog or rainfall persistence. This pattern is similar to that of other eastern Andean TMCFs, however, the study site had higher wet season rainfall and lower dry season rainfall suggesting that upwind contrasts in land cover and moisture can influence the meteorological conditions at eastern Andean TMCFs. Contrasting streamflow dynamics between the studied catchments reflect the overall system response

  18. Dealing with uncertainties in impact studies of climate change on hydrometeorological series over Segura River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Garcia Cardenas, R.; Tetay Botia, C.; Giraldo Osorio, J.; Erena Arrabal, M.; Baille, A.

    2011-12-01

    The Segura River Basin (SRB) located in the South East of Spain, is affected by recurrent drought and water scarcity episodes. This basin presents the lowest percentage of renewable water resources of all the Spanish basins. Intensive reforestation has been carried out in the region, to halt desertification and erosion, which added to climate change and variability, do not allow the default assumption of stationarity in the water resources systems. Therefore, the study of effects in hydrometeorological series should be addressed by nonstationary probabilistic models that allow describing the time evolution of their probability distribution functions (PDFs). In the present work, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shaper) approach is applied to identify of spatio-temporal trends in observed precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), at basin scale. Several previous studies have addressed the potential impacts of climate change in water supply systems, focusing on the sensitivity analysis of runoff to climate. Considering the use of a conceptual hydrological model with few parameters, the impacts on runoff and its trend from historical data, are assessed. The conclusions of this study represent a breakthrough in the development of methodologies to understand and anticipate the impacts on water resources systems, in the light of current and future climate conditions, considering hydroclimatic non-stationarity. These findings are expected to contribute to the management of conditions of water resources scarcity and droughts, such as the observed in the SRB, as support to decision-making process by stakeholders.

  19. Nuclear LSm8 affects number of cytoplasmic processing bodies via controlling cellular distribution of Like-Sm proteins

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novotný, Ivan; Podolská, Kateřina; Blažíková, Michaela; Valášek, Leoš Shivaya; Svoboda, Petr; Staněk, David

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 19 (2012), s. 3776-3785 ISSN 1059-1524 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KAN200520801; GA ČR GA204/07/0133; GA ČR GAP305/10/2215; GA ČR GAP302/11/1910; GA ČR(CZ) GBP305/12/G034 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50390703; CEZ:AV0Z50520514; CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Institutional support: RVO:68378050 ; RVO:68378041 ; RVO:61388971 Keywords : P-bodies * LSm proteins * mRNA degradation Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 4.604, year: 2012

  20. Synthesis of modified calcium aluminate with lanthanum manganite (LSM) for possible use in solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veiga, F.C.T.; Jurado, J.; Sousa, V.C. de

    2016-01-01

    The fuel cells solid oxide (SOFC) is made up of three basic elements: two electrodes, the anode and cathode and a conductive electrolyte ions. The objective of this work consists of calcium aluminate synthesis modified LSM in a 1: 1 by combustion synthesis method with a view to its use as a cathode in SOFC. The characterization of the post was carried out by the methods of XRD, TEM and EIS. After heat treatment at 1200°C/4 hours it was possible to obtain Ca0.5Sr1.5MnO4 and CaMnO2.56 phases. The material showed a semiconductor characteristics because with increasing temperature the electrical resistance value tends to decrease obtaining electrical conductivity greater than 10-6S / cm featuring an extrinsic semiconductor with an activation energy of 0.12. Therefore, with an activation energy value within the range of materials used for a SOFC cathodes. (author)

  1. Characterization of LSM/CGO Symmetric Cells Modified by NOx Adsorbents for Electrochemical NOx Removal with Impedance Spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shao, Jing; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2013-01-01

    in the resistance of the low-frequency processes, which were ascribed to adsorption, diffusion, and transfer of O2 species and NOx species at or near the triple phase boundary (TPB) region and the formation of the reaction intermediate NO2. The BaO impregnation improved the adsorption of NOx on the LSM....../CGO electrode by selectively trapping NO2 in the form of nitrate over the BaO sites and provided availability for a direct reduction of the stored nitrate. The BaO-Pt-Al2O3 layer enhanced the NOx adsorption and promoted the formation of NO2 due to the NO oxidation ability of the Pt catalyst, but hindered...... the gas diffusion to the reaction sites....

  2. ICT approaches to integrating institutional and non-institutional data services for better understanding of hydro-meteorological phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedrina, T.; Parodi, A.; Quarati, A.; Clematis, A.

    2012-06-01

    It is widely recognised that an effective exploitation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) is an enabling factor to achieve major advancements in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR). Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to the use of ICT in HMR activities, e.g. in order to facilitate data exchange and integration, to improve computational capabilities and consequently model resolution and quality. Nowadays, ICT technologies have demonstrated that it is possible to extend monitoring networks by integrating sensors and other sources of data managed by volunteer's communities. These networks are constituted by peers that span a wide portion of the territory in many countries. The peers are "location aware" in the sense that they provide information strictly related with their geospatial location. The coverage of these networks, in general, is not uniform and the location of peers may follow random distribution. The ICT features used to set up the network are lightweight and user friendly, thus, permitting the peers to join the network without the necessity of specialised ICT knowledge. In this perspective it is of increasing interest for HMR activities to elaborate of Personal Weather Station (PWS) networks, capable to provide almost real-time, location aware, weather data. Moreover, different big players of the web arena are now providing world-wide backbones, suitable to present on detailed map location aware information, obtained by mashing up data from different sources. This is the case, for example, with Google Earth and Google Maps. This paper presents the design of a mashup application aimed at aggregating, refining and visualizing near real-time hydro-meteorological datasets. In particular, we focused on the integration of instant precipitation depths, registered either by widespread semi-professional weather stations and official ones. This sort of information has high importance and usefulness in decision support systems and Civil

  3. ICT approaches to integrating institutional and non-institutional data services for better understanding of hydro-meteorological phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Bedrina

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available It is widely recognised that an effective exploitation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT is an enabling factor to achieve major advancements in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR. Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to the use of ICT in HMR activities, e.g. in order to facilitate data exchange and integration, to improve computational capabilities and consequently model resolution and quality. Nowadays, ICT technologies have demonstrated that it is possible to extend monitoring networks by integrating sensors and other sources of data managed by volunteer's communities. These networks are constituted by peers that span a wide portion of the territory in many countries. The peers are "location aware" in the sense that they provide information strictly related with their geospatial location. The coverage of these networks, in general, is not uniform and the location of peers may follow random distribution. The ICT features used to set up the network are lightweight and user friendly, thus, permitting the peers to join the network without the necessity of specialised ICT knowledge. In this perspective it is of increasing interest for HMR activities to elaborate of Personal Weather Station (PWS networks, capable to provide almost real-time, location aware, weather data.

    Moreover, different big players of the web arena are now providing world-wide backbones, suitable to present on detailed map location aware information, obtained by mashing up data from different sources. This is the case, for example, with Google Earth and Google Maps.

    This paper presents the design of a mashup application aimed at aggregating, refining and visualizing near real-time hydro-meteorological datasets. In particular, we focused on the integration of instant precipitation depths, registered either by widespread semi-professional weather stations and official ones. This sort of information has high importance and usefulness in

  4. Long-range hydrometeorological ensemble predictions of drought parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2012-06-01

    Low streamflow as consequence of a drought event affects numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that may be impacted by drought are, e.g. power production, agriculture, tourism and water quality management. Numerical models have increasingly been used to forecast low-flow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the low-flow indices duration, severity and magnitude, with a forecast lead-time of one month, to assess their potential usefulness for predictions. The ECMWF VarEPS 5 member reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification shows that, compared to peak flow, probabilistic low-flow forecasts are skillful for longer lead-times, low-flow index forecasts could also be beneficially included in a decision-making process. The results suggest monthly runoff forecasts are useful for accessing the risk of hydrological droughts.

  5. Hydro-meteorological evaluation of downscaled global ensemble rainfall forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaborit, Étienne; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Pelletier, Geneviève

    2013-04-01

    Ensemble rainfall forecasts are of high interest for decision making, as they provide an explicit and dynamic assessment of the uncertainty in the forecast (Ruiz et al. 2009). However, for hydrological forecasting, their low resolution currently limits their use to large watersheds (Maraun et al. 2010). In order to bridge this gap, various implementations of the statistic-stochastic multi-fractal downscaling technique presented by Perica and Foufoula-Georgiou (1996) were compared, bringing Environment Canada's global ensemble rainfall forecasts from a 100 by 70-km resolution down to 6 by 4-km, while increasing each pixel's rainfall variance and preserving its original mean. For comparison purposes, simpler methods were also implemented such as the bi-linear interpolation, which disaggregates global forecasts without modifying their variance. The downscaled meteorological products were evaluated using different scores and diagrams, from both a meteorological and a hydrological view points. The meteorological evaluation was conducted comparing the forecasted rainfall depths against nine days of observed values taken from Québec City rain gauge database. These 9 days present strong precipitation events occurring during the summer of 2009. For the hydrologic evaluation, the hydrological models SWMM5 and (a modified version of) GR4J were implemented on a small 6 km2 urban catchment located in the Québec City region. Ensemble hydrologic forecasts with a time step of 3 hours were then performed over a 3-months period of the summer of 2010 using the original and downscaled ensemble rainfall forecasts. The most important conclusions of this work are that the overall quality of the forecasts was preserved during the disaggregation procedure and that the disaggregated products using this variance-enhancing method were of similar quality than bi-linear interpolation products. However, variance and dispersion of the different members were, of course, much improved for the

  6. Mapping microscopic order in plant and mammalian cells and tissues: novel differential polarization attachment for new generation confocal microscopes (DP-LSM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbach, G.; Pawlak, K.; Pomozi, I.; Tóth, E. A.; Molnár, A.; Matkó, J.; Garab, G.

    2014-03-01

    Elucidation of the molecular architecture of complex, highly organized molecular macro-assemblies is an important, basic task for biology. Differential polarization (DP) measurements, such as linear (LD) and circular dichroism (CD) or the anisotropy of the fluorescence emission (r), which can be carried out in a dichrograph or spectrofluorimeter, respectively, carry unique, spatially averaged information about the molecular organization of the sample. For inhomogeneous samples—e.g. cells and tissues—measurements on macroscopic scale are not satisfactory, and in some cases not feasible, thus microscopic techniques must be applied. The microscopic DP-imaging technique, when based on confocal laser scanning microscope (LSM), allows the pixel by pixel mapping of anisotropy of a sample in 2D and 3D. The first DP-LSM configuration, which, in fluorescence mode, allowed confocal imaging of different DP quantities in real-time, without interfering with the ‘conventional’ imaging, was built on a Zeiss LSM410. It was demonstrated to be capable of determining non-confocally the linear birefringence (LB) or LD of a sample and, confocally, its FDLD (fluorescence detected LD), the degree of polarization (P) and the anisotropy of the fluorescence emission (r), following polarized and non-polarized excitation, respectively (Steinbach et al 2009 Acta Histochem.111 316-25). This DP-LSM configuration, however, cannot simply be adopted to new generation microscopes with considerably more compact structures. As shown here, for an Olympus FV500, we designed an easy-to-install DP attachment to determine LB, LD, FDLD and r, in new-generation confocal microscopes, which, in principle, can be complemented with a P-imaging unit, but specifically to the brand and type of LSM.

  7. Mapping microscopic order in plant and mammalian cells and tissues: novel differential polarization attachment for new generation confocal microscopes (DP-LSM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinbach, G; Pawlak, K; Garab, G; Pomozi, I; Tóth, E A; Molnár, A; Matkó, J

    2014-01-01

    Elucidation of the molecular architecture of complex, highly organized molecular macro-assemblies is an important, basic task for biology. Differential polarization (DP) measurements, such as linear (LD) and circular dichroism (CD) or the anisotropy of the fluorescence emission (r), which can be carried out in a dichrograph or spectrofluorimeter, respectively, carry unique, spatially averaged information about the molecular organization of the sample. For inhomogeneous samples—e.g. cells and tissues—measurements on macroscopic scale are not satisfactory, and in some cases not feasible, thus microscopic techniques must be applied. The microscopic DP-imaging technique, when based on confocal laser scanning microscope (LSM), allows the pixel by pixel mapping of anisotropy of a sample in 2D and 3D. The first DP-LSM configuration, which, in fluorescence mode, allowed confocal imaging of different DP quantities in real-time, without interfering with the ‘conventional’ imaging, was built on a Zeiss LSM410. It was demonstrated to be capable of determining non-confocally the linear birefringence (LB) or LD of a sample and, confocally, its FDLD (fluorescence detected LD), the degree of polarization (P) and the anisotropy of the fluorescence emission (r), following polarized and non-polarized excitation, respectively (Steinbach et al 2009 Acta Histochem.111 316–25). This DP-LSM configuration, however, cannot simply be adopted to new generation microscopes with considerably more compact structures. As shown here, for an Olympus FV500, we designed an easy-to-install DP attachment to determine LB, LD, FDLD and r, in new-generation confocal microscopes, which, in principle, can be complemented with a P-imaging unit, but specifically to the brand and type of LSM. (paper)

  8. Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of the MAP*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Benoit

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available During the Special Observation Period (SOP, 7 September–15 November, 1999 of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP, the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community Model (MC2 was run in real time at a horizontal resolution of 3 km on a computational domain of 350☓300☓50 grid points, covering the whole of the Alpine region. The WATFLOOD model was passively coupled to the MC2; the former is an integrated set of computer programs to forecast flood flows, using all available data, for catchments with response times ranging from one hour to several weeks. The unique aspect of this contribution is the operational application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very large, multinational domain. An overview of the system performance from the hydrometeorological aspect is presented, mostly for the real-time results, but also from subsequent analyses. A streamflow validation of the precipitation is included for large basins covering upper parts of the Rhine and the Rhone, and parts of the Po and of the Danube. In general, the MC2/WATFLOOD model underestimated the total runoff because of the under-prediction of precipitation by MC2 during the MAP SOP. After the field experiment, a coding error in the cloud microphysics scheme of MC2 explains this underestimation to a large extent. A sensitivity study revealed that the simulated flows reproduce the major features of the observed flow record for most of the flow stations. The experiment was considered successful because two out of three possible flood events in the Swiss-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from the numerical weather models linked to the hydrological model and no flow events were missed. This study has demonstrated that a flow forecast from a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model can serve as a useful first alert and quantitative forecast. Keywords: mesoscale atmospheric model, hydrological model, flood forecasting, Alps

  9. Overview of Hydrometeorologic Forecasting Procedures at BC Hydro

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollor, D.

    2004-12-01

    Energy utility companies must balance production from limited sources with increasing demand from industrial, business, and residential consumers. The utility planning process requires a balanced, efficient, and effective distribution of energy from source to consumer. Therefore utility planners must consider the impact of weather on energy production and consumption. Hydro-electric companies should be particularly tuned to weather because their source of energy is water, and water supply depends on precipitation. BC Hydro operates as the largest hydro-electric company in western Canada, managing over 30 reservoirs within the province of British Columbia, and generating electricity for 1.6 million people. BC Hydro relies on weather forecasts of watershed precipitation and temperature to drive hydrologic reservoir inflow models and of urban temperatures to meet energy demand requirements. Operations and planning specialists in the company rely on current, value-added weather forecasts for extreme high-inflow events, daily reservoir operations planning, and long-term water resource management. Weather plays a dominant role for BC Hydro financial planners in terms of sensitive economic responses. For example, a two percent change in hydropower generation, due in large part to annual precipitation patterns, results in an annual net change of \\50 million in earnings. A five percent change in temperature produces a \\5 million change in yearly earnings. On a daily basis, significant precipitation events or temperature extremes involve potential profit/loss decisions in the tens of thousands of dollars worth of power generation. These factors are in addition to environmental and societal costs that must be considered equally as part of a triple bottom line reporting structure. BC Hydro water resource managers require improved meteorological information from recent advancements in numerical weather prediction. At BC Hydro, methods of providing meteorological forecast data

  10. Entropy-based derivation of generalized distributions for hydrometeorological frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lu; Singh, Vijay P.

    2018-02-01

    Frequency analysis of hydrometeorological and hydrological extremes is needed for the design of hydraulic and civil infrastructure facilities as well as water resources management. A multitude of distributions have been employed for frequency analysis of these extremes. However, no single distribution has been accepted as a global standard. Employing the entropy theory, this study derived five generalized distributions for frequency analysis that used different kinds of information encoded as constraints. These distributions were the generalized gamma (GG), the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2), and the Halphen type A distribution (Hal-A), Halphen type B distribution (Hal-B) and Halphen type inverse B distribution (Hal-IB), among which the GG and GB2 distribution were previously derived by Papalexiou and Koutsoyiannis (2012) and the Halphen family was first derived using entropy theory in this paper. The entropy theory allowed to estimate parameters of the distributions in terms of the constraints used for their derivation. The distributions were tested using extreme daily and hourly rainfall data. Results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) values were very small, which indicated that the five generalized distributions fitted the extreme rainfall data well. Among them, according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) values, generally the GB2 and Halphen family gave a better fit. Therefore, those general distributions are one of the best choices for frequency analysis. The entropy-based derivation led to a new way for frequency analysis of hydrometeorological extremes.

  11. Spatiotemporal analysis of hydro-meteorological drought in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Mou Leong; Chua, Vivien P.; Li, Cheng; Brindha, K.

    2018-02-01

    Assessment of historical hydro-meteorological drought is important to develop a robust drought monitoring and prediction system. This study aims to assess the historical hydro-meteorological drought of the Johor River Basin (JRB) from 1975 to 2010, an important basin for the population of southern Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) were selected to represent the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Four absolute homogeneity tests were used to assess the rainfall data from 20 stations, and two stations were flagged by these tests. Results indicate the SPI duration to be comparatively low (3 months), and drier conditions occur over the upper JRB. The annual SSI had a strong decreasing trend at 95% significance level, showing that human activities such as reservoir construction and agriculture (oil palm) have a major influence on streamflow in the middle and lower basin. In addition, moderate response rate of SSI to SPI was found, indicating that hydrological drought could also have occurred in normal climate condition. Generally, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Madden Julian Oscillation have greater impacts on drought events in the basin. Findings of this study could be beneficial for future drought projection and water resources management.

  12. The Effect of Electrical Polarization on Electronic Structure in LSM Electrodes: An Operando XAS, RIXS and XES Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Traulsen, Marie Lund; Carvalho, H.W.P.; Zielke, Philipp

    2017-01-01

    in the Mn K edge energy towards lower energies. The shift is assigned to a decrease in the average Mn oxidation state, which based on Kβ XES changes from 3.4 at open circuit voltage to 3.2 at −800 mV applied potential. Furthermore, RIXS rendered pronounced changes in the population of the Mn 3d orbitals...... (RIXS) at the Mn K-edge. The study of polarization induced changes in the electronic properties and structure has been carried out at 500°C in 10–20% O2 with electrical polarization applied in the range from −850 mV to 800 mV. Cathodic polarizations in the range −600 mV to −850 mV induced a shift......, due to filling of the Mn d-orbitals during the cathodic polarization. Overall, the study experimentally links the electrical polarization of LSM electrodes to the structural and electronic properties of Mn - these properties are expected to be of major importance for the electrocatalytic performance...

  13. ISTSOS, SENSOR OBSERVATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: A REAL CASE APPLICATION OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR FLOOD PROTECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cannata

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available istSOS (Istituto scienze della Terra Sensor Observation Service is an implementation of the Sensor Observation Service standard from Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC. The development of istSOS started in 2009 in order to provide a simple implementation of the Sensor Observation Service (SOS standard for the management, provision and integration of hydro-meteorological data collected in Canton Ticino (Southern Switzerland. istSOS is entirely written in Python and is based on reliable open source software like PostgreSQL/PostGIS and Apache/mod_wsgi. The authors during this presentation want to illustrate the latest software enhancements together with a real case in a production environment. Latest software enhancement includes the development of a RESTful service and of a Web-based graphical user interface that allows hydrologists a better interaction with measurements. This includes the ability of new services creation, addition of new sensors and relative metadata, visualization and manipulation of stored observations, registration of new measures and setting of system properties like observable properties and data quality codes. The study will show a real case application of the system for the provision of data to interregional partners and to a hydrological model for lake level forecasting and flooding hazard assessment. The hydrological model uses a combination of WPS (Web Processing Service and SOS for the generation of model input data. This system is linked with a dedicated geo-portal used by the civil protection for the management, alert and protection of population and assets of the Locarno area (Verbano Lake flooding. Practical considerations and technical issues will be presented and discussed.

  14. Structural and electrical characterization of spray deposited La0.9Sr0.1MnO3 (LSM) thin film

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukadam, A.M.; Nimat, R.K.; Kamble, B.S.; Fulari, V.J.

    2014-01-01

    The perovskite with general formula ABO 3 where, A = La, Sr and B = Co, Fe, Mn, have many applications such as gas separation membranes, catalysts, gas sensors and have been shown the best mixed electronic and ionic conductivity (MIEC), stability and compatibility as cathode materials for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). The Strontium doped lanthanum manganite (La 1-x Sr x MnO 3 , LSM) have been utilized as a cathode for SOFC because of its high electrochemical activity for oxygen reduction and good stability and compatibility with YSZ electrolyte. The use of LSM is not applicable for a low-temperature SOFC due to its low oxygen ion conductivity and high activation energy

  15. Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751–1900 AD

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brázdil, Rudolf; Chromá, Kateřina; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 2 (2012), s. 467-481 ISSN 1814-9324 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : documentary evidence * hydrometeorological extremes * tax alleviation * flood * hailstorm * torrential rain Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.556, year: 2012

  16. GERAKAN LSM KOLING PADA UPAYA KONSERVASI HUTAN DIENG TAHUN 2000-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muntobingul Rojbiyah

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of various kinds of natural disasters in many parts of the world indicates just how nature has been corrupted and degraded. Environmental degradation that occurs has a lot of movement attracted the attention of environmentalists as well as NGOs. Concern about environmental issues today is nothing new among NGOs. A variety of environmental movement they are doing to realize a sustainable environment. Similarly, NGOs Koling which since 1999 has been struggling in Wonosobo forest management policy. Ideology of the NGO movement is a determination of how they develop strategies and activities in the struggle for environmental issues (forestry in Wonosobo.With the sociological perspective of social movement paradigm, the research made to analyze how the paradigm of the NGO movement Koling determine the pace of movement is then presented to each program and activity does. The theory used to analyze the theoretical model with the environmental NGO movement Hayden and Mansour Fakih ideas about the paradigm of NGOs. The final results concluded that: (1 NGO environmental movement Koling is visionary in achieving management natural resources (especially the management of forest resources based on the empowerment and social welfare, (2 the movements are more likely paradigmatic moderate/reformist despite sometimes also paradigmatic liberal/ transformative, (3 the analysis of the concept model of the environmental NGO movement Heyden, Koling more closely to the model of instrumental strategies and sub -cultural.

  17. Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

    2013-05-01

    Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio

  18. Family archives as a source of information about past hydrometeorological extremes in Southern Moravia (Czech Republic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, Kateřina

    2014-05-01

    Meteorological and hydrological extremes (hydrometeorological extremes - HMEs) cause great material damage or even loss of human lives in the present time, as well as it was in the past. For the study of their temporal and spatial variability in periods with only natural forcing factors in comparison with those combining also anthropogenic effects it is essential to have the longest possible series of HMEs. In the Czech Lands (recently the Czech Republic), systematic meteorological and hydrological observations started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. Therefore, in order to create long-term series of such extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information. There exist different types of documentary evidence used in historical climatology and hydrology, represented by various sources such as annals, chronicles, diaries, private letters, newspapers etc. Besides them, institutional documentary evidence (of economic and administrative character) has particular importance (e.g. taxation records). Documents in family archives represent further promising source of data related to HMEs. The documents kept by the most important lord families in Moravia (e.g. Liechtensteins, Dietrichsteins) are located in Moravian Land Archives in Brno. Besides data about family members, industrial and agricultural business, military questions, travelling and social events, they contain direct or indirect information about HMEs. It concerns descriptions of catastrophic phenomena on the particular demesne (mainly with respect to damage) as well as correspondence related to tax reductions (i.e. they can overlap with taxation records of particular estates). This contribution shows the potential of family archives as a source of information about HMEs, up to now only rarely used, which may extend our knowledge about them. Several examples of such documents are presented. The study is a part of the research project "Hydrometeorological extremes in Southern

  19. Are extreme hydro-meteorological events a prerequisite for extreme water quality impacts? Exploring climate impacts on inland and coastal waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalak, A. M.; Balaji, V.; Del Giudice, D.; Sinha, E.; Zhou, Y.; Ho, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Questions surrounding water sustainability, climate change, and extreme events are often framed around water quantity - whether too much or too little. The massive impacts of extreme water quality impairments are equally compelling, however. Recent years have provided a host of compelling examples, with unprecedented harmful algal blooms developing along the West coast, in Utah Lake, in Lake Erie, and off the Florida coast, and huge hypoxic dead zones continuing to form in regions such as Lake Erie, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. Linkages between climate change, extreme events, and water quality impacts are not well understood, however. Several factors explain this lack of understanding, including the relative complexity of underlying processes, the spatial and temporal scale mismatch between hydrologists and climatologists, and observational uncertainty leading to ambiguities in the historical record. Here, we draw on a number of recent studies that aim to quantitatively link meteorological variability and water quality impacts to test the hypothesis that extreme water quality impairments are the result of extreme hydro-meteorological events. We find that extreme hydro-meteorological events are neither always a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of extreme water quality impacts. Rather, extreme water quality impairments often occur in situations where multiple contributing factors compound, which complicates both attribution of historical events and the ability to predict the future incidence of such events. Given the critical societal importance of water quality projections, a concerted program of uncertainty reduction encompassing observational and modeling components will be needed to examine situations where extreme weather plays an important, but not solitary, role in the chain of cause and effect.

  20. Real-time remote sensing driven river basin modeling using radar altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Riegels, Niels; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Many river basins have a weak in-situ hydrometeorological monitoring infrastructure. However, water resources practitioners depend on reliable hydrological models for management purposes. Remote sensing (RS) data have been recognized as an alternative to in-situ hydrometeorological data in remote...

  1. Uncertainty in solid precipitation and snow depth prediction for Siberia using the Noah and Noah-MP land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Kazuyoshi; Zupanski, Milija

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we investigate the uncertainties associated with land surface processes in an ensemble predication context. Specifically, we compare the uncertainties produced by a coupled atmosphere-land modeling system with two different land surface models, the Noah- MP land surface model (LSM) and the Noah LSM, by using the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (MLEF) data assimilation system as a platform for ensemble prediction. We carried out 24-hour prediction simulations in Siberia with 32 ensemble members beginning at 00:00 UTC on 5 March 2013. We then compared the model prediction uncertainty of snow depth and solid precipitation with observation-based research products and evaluated the standard deviation of the ensemble spread. The prediction skill and ensemble spread exhibited high positive correlation for both LSMs, indicating a realistic uncertainty estimation. The inclusion of a multiple snowlayer model in the Noah-MP LSM was beneficial for reducing the uncertainties of snow depth and snow depth change compared to the Noah LSM, but the uncertainty in daily solid precipitation showed minimal difference between the two LSMs. The impact of LSM choice in reducing temperature uncertainty was limited to surface layers of the atmosphere. In summary, we found that the more sophisticated Noah-MP LSM reduces uncertainties associated with land surface processes compared to the Noah LSM. Thus, using prediction models with improved skill implies improved predictability and greater certainty of prediction.

  2. A multi-objective framework to predict flows of ungauged rivers within regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alipour, M.; Kibler, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    Despite advances in flow prediction, managers of ungauged rivers located within broad regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation still lack prescriptive methods robust to the data challenges of such regions. We propose a multi-objective streamflow prediction framework for regions of minimum observation to select models that balance runoff efficiency with choice of accurate parameter values. We supplement sparse observed data with uncertain or low-resolution information incorporated as `soft' a priori parameter estimates. The performance of the proposed framework is tested against traditional single-objective and constrained single-objective calibrations in two catchments in a remote area of southwestern China. We find that the multi-objective approach performs well with respect to runoff efficiency in both catchments (NSE = 0.74 and 0.72), within the range of efficiencies returned by other models (NSE = 0.67 - 0.78). However, soil moisture capacity estimated by the multi-objective model resonates with a priori estimates (parameter residuals of 61 cm versus 289 and 518 cm for maximum soil moisture capacity in one catchment, and 20 cm versus 246 and 475 cm in the other; parameter residuals of 0.48 versus 0.65 and 0.7 for soil moisture distribution shape factor in one catchment, and 0.91 versus 0.79 and 1.24 in the other). Thus, optimization to a multi-criteria objective function led to very different representations of soil moisture capacity as compared to models selected by single-objective calibration, without compromising runoff efficiency. These different soil moisture representations may translate into considerably different hydrological behaviors. The proposed approach thus offers a preliminary step towards greater process understanding in regions of severe data limitations. For instance, the multi-objective framework may be an adept tool to discern between models of similar efficiency to select models that provide the "right answers for the right reasons

  3. Inclusion of potential vorticity uncertainties into a hydrometeorological forecasting chain: application to a medium size basin of Mediterranean Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amengual, A.; Romero, R.; Vich, M.; Alonso, S.

    2009-06-01

    The improvement of the short- and mid-range numerical runoff forecasts over the flood-prone Spanish Mediterranean area is a challenging issue. This work analyses four intense precipitation events which produced floods of different magnitude over the Llobregat river basin, a medium size catchment located in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain. One of them was a devasting flash flood - known as the "Montserrat" event - which produced 5 fatalities and material losses estimated at about 65 million euros. The characterization of the Llobregat basin's hydrological response to these floods is first assessed by using rain-gauge data and the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) runoff model. In second place, the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) is nested within the ECMWF large-scale forecast fields in a set of 54 h period simulations to provide quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for each hydrometeorological episode. The hydrological model is forced with these QPFs to evaluate the reliability of the resulting discharge forecasts, while an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on perturbed atmospheric initial and boundary conditions has been designed to test the value of a probabilistic strategy versus the previous deterministic approach. Specifically, a Potential Vorticity (PV) Inversion technique has been used to perturb the MM5 model initial and boundary states (i.e. ECMWF forecast fields). For that purpose, a PV error climatology has been previously derived in order to introduce realistic PV perturbations in the EPS. Results show the benefits of using a probabilistic approach in those cases where the deterministic QPF presents significant deficiencies over the Llobregat river basin in terms of the rainfall amounts, timing and localization. These deficiences in precipitation fields have a major impact on flood forecasts. Our ensemble strategy has been found useful to reduce the

  4. Effects of high spatial and temporal resolution Earth observations on simulated hydrometeorological variables in a cropland (southwestern France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Etchanchu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural landscapes are often constituted by a patchwork of crop fields whose seasonal evolution is dependent on specific crop rotation patterns and phenologies. This temporal and spatial heterogeneity affects surface hydrometeorological processes and must be taken into account in simulations of land surface and distributed hydrological models. The Sentinel-2 mission allows for the monitoring of land cover and vegetation dynamics at unprecedented spatial resolutions and revisit frequencies (20 m and 5 days, respectively that are fully compatible with such heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Here, we evaluate the impact of Sentinel-2-like remote sensing data on the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes via the Interactions between the Surface Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA land surface model included in the EXternalized SURface (SURFEX modeling platform. The study focuses on the effect of the leaf area index (LAI spatial and temporal variability on these fluxes. We compare the use of the LAI climatology from ECOCLIMAP-II, used by default in SURFEX-ISBA, and time series of LAI derived from the high-resolution Formosat-2 satellite data (8 m. The study area is an agricultural zone in southwestern France covering 576 km2 (24 km  ×  24 km. An innovative plot-scale approach is used, in which each computational unit has a homogeneous vegetation type. Evaluation of the simulations quality is done by comparing model outputs with in situ eddy covariance measurements of latent heat flux (LE. Our results show that the use of LAI derived from high-resolution remote sensing significantly improves simulated evapotranspiration with respect to ECOCLIMAP-II, especially when the surface is covered with summer crops. The comparison with in situ measurements shows an improvement of roughly 0.3 in the correlation coefficient and a decrease of around 30 % of the root mean square error (RMSE in the simulated evapotranspiration. This

  5. The decapping activator Edc3 and the Q/N-rich domain of Lsm4 function together to enhance mRNA stability and alter mRNA decay pathway dependence in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Huch

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The rate and regulation of mRNA decay are major elements in the proper control of gene expression. Edc3 and Lsm4 are two decapping activator proteins that have previously been shown to function in the assembly of RNA granules termed P bodies. Here, we show that deletion of edc3, when combined with a removal of the glutamine/asparagine rich region of Lsm4 (edc3Δ lsm4ΔC reduces mRNA stability and alters pathways of mRNA degradation. Multiple tested mRNAs exhibited reduced stability in the edc3Δ lsm4ΔC mutant. The destabilization was linked to an increased dependence on Ccr4-mediated deadenylation and mRNA decapping. Unlike characterized mutations in decapping factors that either are neutral or are able to stabilize mRNA, the combined edc3Δ lsm4ΔC mutant reduced mRNA stability. We characterized the growth and activity of the major mRNA decay systems and translation in double mutant and wild-type yeast. In the edc3Δ lsm4ΔC mutant, we observed alterations in the levels of specific mRNA decay factors as well as nuclear accumulation of the catalytic subunit of the decapping enzyme Dcp2. Hence, we suggest that the effects on mRNA stability in the edc3Δ lsm4ΔC mutant may originate from mRNA decay protein abundance or changes in mRNPs, or alternatively may imply a role for P bodies in mRNA stabilization.

  6. Impacts of hydrometeorological extremes in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands in 1706–1889 as derived from taxation records

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dolák, Lukáš; Brázdil, Rudolf; Valášek, H.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 120, č. 4 (2015), s. 465-488 ISSN 1212-0014 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA13-19831S Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : historical climatology * ice-age * documentary * vulnerability * temperatures * europe * winter * hydrometeorological extremes * taxation records * damage * impacts * Bohemian-Moravian Highlands Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.415, year: 2015

  7. Radioactivity monitoring network of slovak hydrometeorological institute and its activity within the framework of nuclear emergency information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prochazkova, A; Trcka, T [Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratsislava (Slovakia)

    1996-12-31

    Slovak hydrometeorological institute (SHMI) radioactivity monitoring network is a part of nuclear radiation early warning system. This paper describes the aim and the structure of the monitoring system. Paper presents a short description of radioactivity monitoring network of SHMI and its connection with Austrian and German systems. It provides national means for the monitoring of the radiological effects of nuclear accident and for informing government departments and the public.(J.K.) 2 figs.

  8. Radioactivity monitoring network of slovak hydrometeorological institute and its activity within the framework of nuclear emergency information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prochazkova, A.; Trcka, T.

    1995-01-01

    Slovak hydrometeorological institute (SHMI) radioactivity monitoring network is a part of nuclear radiation early warning system. This paper describes the aim and the structure of the monitoring system. Paper presents a short description of radioactivity monitoring network of SHMI and its connection with Austrian and German systems. It provides national means for the monitoring of the radiological effects of nuclear accident and for informing government departments and the public.(J.K.) 2 figs

  9. A hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system for real-time flood forecasting purposes in the Milano area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Romero, Romualdo; Homar, Victor; Mancini, Marco

    2015-04-01

    Analysis of forecasting strategies that can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Western Mediterranean region is one of the fundamental motivations of the European HyMeX programme. Here, we examine a set of hydro-meteorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed before the occurred flash-floods. Indeed, flood damages have exponentially increased in the area during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. The flood forecasting system tested in this work comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, in order to provide a hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS). Deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) have been provided by WRF model in a set of 48-hours experiments. HEPS has been generated by combining different physical parameterizations (i.e. cloud microphysics, moist convection and boundary-layer schemes) of the WRF model in order to better encompass the atmospheric processes leading to high precipitation amounts. We have been able to test the value of a probabilistic versus a deterministic framework when driving Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs). Results highlight (i) the benefits of using a high-resolution HEPS in conveying uncertainties for this complex orographic area and (ii) a better simulation of the most of extreme precipitation events, potentially enabling valuable probabilistic QDFs. Hence, the HEPS copes with the significant deficiencies found in the deterministic QPFs. These shortcomings would prevent to correctly forecast the location and timing of high precipitation rates and

  10. Pre- and post-processing of hydro-meteorological ensembles for the Norwegian flood forecasting system in 145 basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahr Hegdahl, Trine; Steinsland, Ingelin; Merete Tallaksen, Lena; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Probabilistic flood forecasting has an added value for decision making. The Norwegian flood forecasting service is based on a flood forecasting model that run for 145 basins. Covering all of Norway the basins differ in both size and hydrological regime. Currently the flood forecasting is based on deterministic meteorological forecasts, and an auto-regressive procedure is used to achieve probabilistic forecasts. An alternative approach is to use meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts to quantify the uncertainty in forecasted streamflow. The hydrological ensembles are based on forcing a hydrological model with meteorological ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature. However, the ensembles of precipitation are often biased and the spread is too small, especially for the shortest lead times, i.e. they are not calibrated. These properties will, to some extent, propagate to hydrological ensembles, that most likely will be uncalibrated as well. Pre- and post-processing methods are commonly used to obtain calibrated meteorological and hydrological ensembles respectively. Quantitative studies showing the effect of the combined processing of the meteorological (pre-processing) and the hydrological (post-processing) ensembles are however few. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of pre- and post-processing on the skill of streamflow predictions, and we will especially investigate if the forecasting skill depends on lead-time, basin size and hydrological regime. This aim is achieved by applying the 51 medium-range ensemble forecast of precipitation and temperature provided by the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). These ensembles are used as input to the operational Norwegian flood forecasting model, both raw and pre-processed. Precipitation ensembles are calibrated using a zero-adjusted gamma distribution. Temperature ensembles are calibrated using a Gaussian distribution and altitude corrected by a constant gradient

  11. Pushing Boreal Headwaters: Responses of Dissolved Organic Carbon to Increased Hydro-Meteorological Forcing by Forest Harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schelker, J.; Grabs, T. J.; Bishop, K. H.; Laudon, H.

    2012-12-01

    Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in stream water show large variations as a response to disturbances such as forestry operations. We used a paired catchment experiment in northern Sweden which shows well quantified increases of DOC concentrations and C-exports as a result of forest harvesting. To identify the drivers of these increases, a physically-based process model (Riparian Flow Integration Model, RIM) was used to inversely simulate the DOC availability in the peat-rich riparian soils of the catchments. DOC availability in soils followed a seasonal signal paralleling the seasonality of soil-temperatures (min: February; max: August) during 2005-2011. Further, high-frequency event sampling of DOC during spring and summer seasons of 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively, revealed that event size acted as a secondary control of DOC in streams: Spring snowmelt events (as well as one major event in 2009) showed clockwise hysteresis, whereas minor runoff episodes during summer (when DOC availability in soils was highest) were characterized by a counterclockwise behavior. The higher hydro-meteorological forcing consisting of increases of soil temperature and soil moisture after the forest removal governed additional increases in DOC availability in soils. The higher DOC concentrations observed in streams after forest harvesting can therefore be ascribed to i) the increased climatic forcing comprising higher water flows through riparian soils, ii) increased soil temperatures and soil moisture, respectively, favoring an increased production of DOC, and iii) additional variation by event size. Overall these results underline the large impact of forestry operations on stream water quality as well as DOC exports leaving managed boreal forests. Simulated and measured soil water TOC concentration profiles within the three Balsjö catchments (CC-4 = clear-cut with 67% harvest; NO-5 = 35% harvest; NR-7 = northern reference). The simulated curves represent the

  12. In situ characterization of delamination and crack growth of a CGO–LSM multi-layer ceramic sample investigated by X-ray tomographic microscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Esposito, Vincenzo; Lauridsen, Erik Mejdal

    2014-01-01

    The densification, delamination and crack growth behavior in a Ce0.9Gd0.1O1.95 (CGO) and (La0.85Sr0.15)0.9MnO3 (LSM) multi-layer ceramic sample was studied using in situ X-ray tomographic microscopy (microtomography) to investigate the critical dynamics of crack propagation and delamination...... in a multilayered sample. Naturally occurring defects, caused by the sample preparation process, are shown not to be critical in sample degradation. Instead defects are nucleated during the debinding step. Crack growth is significantly faster along the material layers than perpendicular to them, and crack growth...

  13. Effects of glaciological and hydro-meteorological conditions on the glacial danger in Zailiyskiy Alatau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Medeu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A need to estimate a hazard of a mudflow stream appearance in the glacial-nival zone of the Northern slope of Zailiyskiy Alatau (Kasakhstan is now one of the really urgent problems. The objective of this study was to inves‑ tigate influence of glacial and hydrometeorological factors on the condition of snow-glacial zone of Zailiyskiy Alatau and find out a mudflow-forming role of the mudflow centers arising due to climate warming and degra‑ dation of glaciation: periglacial lakes, intramoraine channels and reservoirs, and also talik massifs of morainic deposits. We analyzed glacial processes in the Zailiysky Alatau over a long period using meteorological data of the Almaty weather station and its close correlations with data from weather stations in the mountains. The area of glaciations was found out to be reduced after the maximum of the Little Ice Age. A combined diagram of occurrence of the mudflow manifestations and factors causing them had been constructed on the basis of sta‑ tistical data on the landslide phenomena. Glacial mudflows were the most frequent in 1960–1990, and later on activity of them became weaker. We believe, that in the next 10–20 years, the glacial mudflow hazard in Zailiys‑ kiy Alatau can sharply decrease, but at the same time, a probability of occurrence of the rainfall mudflows can increase in the mountainous zone of the ridge due the increase of areas with melted moraine and slope deposits.

  14. Recent floods in the Middle Ebro River, Spain: hydrometeorological aspects and floodplain management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domenech, S.; Espejo, F.; Ollero, A.; Sánchez-Fabre, M.

    2009-09-01

    The Ebro River has the largest Mediterranean basin in the Iberian Peninsula and the third one by surface among those of the Mediterranean Sea. The middle stretch of this river is especially interesting because it constitutes a very economically important axis of population in a semi-arid environment context. Flooding processes are common in the Middle Ebro River, but the combination among decrease of discharges, dam construction and expansion and reinforcement of defences created an unusually quiet period as regards flooding events during the last quarter of the previous century. Nevertheless, with the turn of the century it seems that the Middle Ebro River has entered into new dynamics, with bigger and more frequent floods, the appearance of which has changed its seasonal nature. The most relevant examples are those of February 2003 and March-April 2007. The present paper examines these recent trends and discusses their possible causes from the points of view of hydro-meteorology, flood management through the use of reservoirs, and floodplain management. The consequences of recent floods in the Middle Ebro River have reopened the debate about possible risk management measures.

  15. Seasonality Effects on Nonlinear Properties of Hydrometeorological Records: A New Method of Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livina, V. N.; Ashkenazy, Y.; Bunde, A.; Havlin, S.

    2007-12-01

    Climatic time series in general, and hydrological time series in particular, exhibit pronounced annual periodicity. This periodicity and its corresponding harmonics affect the nonlinear properties of the relevant time series (i.e., the long-range volatility correlations and width of multifractal spectrum) and thus have to be filtered out before studying fractal and volatility properties. We compare several filtering techniques (one of them proposed here) and find that in order to eliminate the periodicity effect on the nonlinear properties of the time series (i.e., the volatility and multifractal properties) it is necessary to filter out the seasonal standard deviation in addition to the filtering of the seasonal mean. The obtained results indicate weak volatility correlations (weak nonlinearity) in the river data, and this can be seen using different filterings approaches. [1] Livina~V.~N., Y.~Ashkenazy, A.~Bunde, and S.~Havlin, Seasonality effects on nonlinear properties of hydrometeorological records, in Extremes, Trends, and Correlations in Hydrology and Climate (ed. by J.P.Kropp & H.-J.Schellnhuber), Springer, Berlin, submitted.

  16. Assessment of Land Surface Models in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model during Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Attada, Raju

    2018-04-17

    Assessment of the land surface models (LSMs) on monsoon studies over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is essential. In this study, we evaluate the skill of LSMs at 10 km spatial resolution in simulating the 2010 monsoon season. The thermal diffusion scheme (TDS), rapid update cycle (RUC), and Noah and Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSMs are chosen based on nature of complexity, that is, from simple slab model to multi-parameterization options coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Model results are compared with the available in situ observations and reanalysis fields. The sensitivity of monsoon elements, surface characteristics, and vertical structures to different LSMs is discussed. Our results reveal that the monsoon features are reproduced by WRF model with all LSMs, but with some regional discrepancies. The model simulations with selected LSMs are able to reproduce the broad rainfall patterns, orography-induced rainfall over the Himalayan region, and dry zone over the southern tip of India. The unrealistic precipitation pattern over the equatorial western Indian Ocean is simulated by WRF–LSM-based experiments. The spatial and temporal distributions of top 2-m soil characteristics (soil temperature and soil moisture) are well represented in RUC and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments during the ISM. Results show that the WRF simulations with RUC, Noah, and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments significantly improved the skill of 2-m temperature and moisture compared to TDS (chosen as a base) LSM-based experiments. Furthermore, the simulations with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs exhibit minimum error in thermodynamics fields. In case of surface wind speed, TDS LSM performed better compared to other LSM experiments. A significant improvement is noticeable in simulating rainfall by WRF model with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs over TDS LSM. Thus, this study emphasis the importance of choosing/improving LSMs for simulating the ISM phenomena

  17. Assessment of Land Surface Models in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model during Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attada, Raju; Kumar, Prashant; Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2018-04-01

    Assessment of the land surface models (LSMs) on monsoon studies over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is essential. In this study, we evaluate the skill of LSMs at 10 km spatial resolution in simulating the 2010 monsoon season. The thermal diffusion scheme (TDS), rapid update cycle (RUC), and Noah and Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSMs are chosen based on nature of complexity, that is, from simple slab model to multi-parameterization options coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Model results are compared with the available in situ observations and reanalysis fields. The sensitivity of monsoon elements, surface characteristics, and vertical structures to different LSMs is discussed. Our results reveal that the monsoon features are reproduced by WRF model with all LSMs, but with some regional discrepancies. The model simulations with selected LSMs are able to reproduce the broad rainfall patterns, orography-induced rainfall over the Himalayan region, and dry zone over the southern tip of India. The unrealistic precipitation pattern over the equatorial western Indian Ocean is simulated by WRF-LSM-based experiments. The spatial and temporal distributions of top 2-m soil characteristics (soil temperature and soil moisture) are well represented in RUC and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments during the ISM. Results show that the WRF simulations with RUC, Noah, and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments significantly improved the skill of 2-m temperature and moisture compared to TDS (chosen as a base) LSM-based experiments. Furthermore, the simulations with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs exhibit minimum error in thermodynamics fields. In case of surface wind speed, TDS LSM performed better compared to other LSM experiments. A significant improvement is noticeable in simulating rainfall by WRF model with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs over TDS LSM. Thus, this study emphasis the importance of choosing/improving LSMs for simulating the ISM phenomena in

  18. Assessment of Land Surface Models in a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model during Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Attada, Raju; Kumar, Prashant; Dasari, Hari Prasad

    2018-01-01

    Assessment of the land surface models (LSMs) on monsoon studies over the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is essential. In this study, we evaluate the skill of LSMs at 10 km spatial resolution in simulating the 2010 monsoon season. The thermal diffusion scheme (TDS), rapid update cycle (RUC), and Noah and Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSMs are chosen based on nature of complexity, that is, from simple slab model to multi-parameterization options coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Model results are compared with the available in situ observations and reanalysis fields. The sensitivity of monsoon elements, surface characteristics, and vertical structures to different LSMs is discussed. Our results reveal that the monsoon features are reproduced by WRF model with all LSMs, but with some regional discrepancies. The model simulations with selected LSMs are able to reproduce the broad rainfall patterns, orography-induced rainfall over the Himalayan region, and dry zone over the southern tip of India. The unrealistic precipitation pattern over the equatorial western Indian Ocean is simulated by WRF–LSM-based experiments. The spatial and temporal distributions of top 2-m soil characteristics (soil temperature and soil moisture) are well represented in RUC and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments during the ISM. Results show that the WRF simulations with RUC, Noah, and Noah-MP LSM-based experiments significantly improved the skill of 2-m temperature and moisture compared to TDS (chosen as a base) LSM-based experiments. Furthermore, the simulations with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs exhibit minimum error in thermodynamics fields. In case of surface wind speed, TDS LSM performed better compared to other LSM experiments. A significant improvement is noticeable in simulating rainfall by WRF model with Noah, RUC, and Noah-MP LSMs over TDS LSM. Thus, this study emphasis the importance of choosing/improving LSMs for simulating the ISM phenomena

  19. Hydrometeorological variability on a large french catchment and its relation to large-scale circulation across temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Fritier, Nicolas; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime; Lavers, David; Hannah, David

    2015-04-01

    In the present context of global changes, considerable efforts have been deployed by the hydrological scientific community to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate fluctuations on water resources. Both observational and modeling studies have been extensively employed to characterize hydrological changes and trends, assess the impact of climate variability or provide future scenarios of water resources. In the aim of a better understanding of hydrological changes, it is of crucial importance to determine how and to what extent trends and long-term oscillations detectable in hydrological variables are linked to global climate oscillations. In this work, we develop an approach associating large-scale/local-scale correlation, enmpirical statistical downscaling and wavelet multiresolution decomposition of monthly precipitation and streamflow over the Seine river watershed, and the North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) in order to gain additional insights on the atmospheric patterns associated with the regional hydrology. We hypothesized that: i) atmospheric patterns may change according to the different temporal wavelengths defining the variability of the signals; and ii) definition of those hydrological/circulation relationships for each temporal wavelength may improve the determination of large-scale predictors of local variations. The results showed that the large-scale/local-scale links were not necessarily constant according to time-scale (i.e. for the different frequencies characterizing the signals), resulting in changing spatial patterns across scales. This was then taken into account by developing an empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) modeling approach which integrated discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis for reconstructing local hydrometeorological processes (predictand : precipitation and streamflow on the Seine river catchment) based on a large-scale predictor (SLP over the Euro-Atlantic sector) on a monthly time-step. This approach

  20. Water cycle research associated with the CaPE hydrometeorology project (CHymP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchon, Claude E.

    1993-01-01

    One outgrowth of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment that took place in central Florida during July and August 1991 was the creation of the CaPE Hydrometeorology Project (CHymP). The principal goal of this project is to investigate the daily water cycle of the CaPE experimental area by analyzing the numerous land and atmosphere in situ and remotely sensed data sets that were generated during the 40-days of observations. The water cycle comprises the atmospheric branch. In turn, the atmospheric branch comprises precipitation leaving the base of the atmospheric volume under study, evaporation and transpiration entering the base, the net horizontal fluxes of water vapor and cloud water through the volume and the conversion of water vapor to cloud water and vice-versa. The sum of these components results in a time rate of change in the water and liquid water (or ice) content of the atmospheric volume. The components of the land branch are precipitation input to and evaporation and transpiration output from the surface, net horizontal fluxes of surface and subsurface water, the sum of which results in a time rate of change in surface and subsurface water mass. The objective of CHymP is to estimate these components in order to determine the daily water budget for a selected area within the CaPE domain. This work began in earnest in the summer of 1992 and continues. Even estimating all the budget components for one day is a complex and time consuming task. The discussions below provides a short summary of the rainfall quality assessment procedures followed by a plan for estimating the horizontal moisture flux.

  1. NLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 Hourly 0.125 x 0.125 degree V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains a series of land surface parameters simulated from the Noah land-surface model (LSM) for Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation...

  2. NLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 Monthly 0.125 x 0.125 degree V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains a series of land surface parameters simulated from the Noah land-surface model (LSM) for Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation...

  3. Exploring probabilistic tools for the development of a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of hydro-meteorological hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumpano, V.; Hussin, H. Y.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    Mass-movements and floods are hydro-meteorological hazards that can have catastrophic effects on communities living in mountainous areas prone to these disastrous events. Environmental, climate and socio-economic changes are expected to affect the tempo-spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe. These changes and their effects on the occurrence of future hazards need to be analyzed and modeled using probabilistic hazard and risk assessment methods in order to assist stakeholders in disaster management strategies and policy making. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using probabilistic methods can further calculate damage and losses to multi-hazards and determine the uncertainties related to all the probabilistic components of the hazard and the vulnerability of the elements at risk. Therefore, in order to develop an effective platform that can quantitatively calculate the risk of mass-movements and floods in several European test sites, an extensive inventory and analysis has been carried out of the available tools and software related to the probabilistic risk assessment of single and multi-hazards. The tools have been reviewed based on whether they are open source and freely available, their required input data, the availability and type of hazard and vulnerability modules, transparency of methods used, their validation and calibration techniques, the inclusion of uncertainties and their state of the art. The analysis also specially focused on the applicability of the tools to European study areas. The findings showed that assumptions and simplifications are made when assessing and quantifying the hazards. The interaction between multiple hazards, like cascading effects are not assessed in most tools and some consider the hazard and vulnerability as qualitative components, rather than quantitative ones. This analysis of hazard and risk assessment tools and software will give future developers and experts a better overview of

  4. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; El-Fadel, M.

    2017-01-01

    Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry

  5. A prediction model for the grade of liver fibrosis using magnetic resonance elastography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsuka, Yusuke; Midorikawa, Yutaka; Abe, Hayato; Matsumoto, Naoki; Moriyama, Mitsuhiko; Haradome, Hiroki; Sugitani, Masahiko; Tsuji, Shingo; Takayama, Tadatoshi

    2017-11-28

    Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has recently become available for assessment of liver fibrosis. We aimed to develop a prediction model for liver fibrosis using clinical variables, including LSM. We performed a prospective study to compare liver fibrosis grade with fibrosis score. LSM was measured using magnetic resonance elastography in 184 patients that underwent liver resection, and liver fibrosis grade was diagnosed histologically after surgery. Using the prediction model established in the training group, we validated the classification accuracy in the independent test group. First, we determined a cut-off value for stratifying fibrosis grade using LSM in 122 patients in the training group, and correctly diagnosed fibrosis grades of 62 patients in the test group with a total accuracy of 69.3%. Next, on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis in the training group, LSM (r = 0.687, P prediction model. This prediction model applied to the test group correctly diagnosed 32 of 36 (88.8%) Grade I (F0 and F1) patients, 13 of 18 (72.2%) Grade II (F2 and F3) patients, and 7 of 8 (87.5%) Grade III (F4) patients in the test group, with a total accuracy of 83.8%. The prediction model based on LSM, ICGR15, and platelet count can accurately and reproducibly predict liver fibrosis grade.

  6. Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751–1900 AD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Valášek

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751–1900 AD. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage are documented for 1751–1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types include hailstorm (25.7%, torrential rain (21.7%, flood (21.0%, followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890 and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847. Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816–1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961–2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May–August and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance. Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  7. Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751-1900 AD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2012-03-01

    Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751-1900 AD. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage are documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed). The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance). Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  8. Hydrometeorological conditions preceding wildfire, and the subsequent burning of a fen watershed in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmes, Matthew C.; Thompson, Dan K.; Sherwood, James H.; Price, Jonathan S.

    2018-01-01

    The destructive nature of the ˜ 590 000 ha Horse river wildfire in the Western Boreal Plain (WBP), northern Alberta, in May of 2016 motivated the investigation of the hydrometeorological conditions that preceded the fire. Historical climate and field hydrometeorological data from a moderate-rich fen watershed were used to (a) identify whether the spring 2016 conditions were outside the range of natural variability for WBP climate cycles, (b) explain the observed patterns in burn severity across the watershed, and (c) identify whether fall and winter moisture signals observed in peatlands and lowland forests in the region are indicative of wildfire. Field hydrometeorological data from the fen watershed confirmed the presence of cumulative moisture deficits prior to the fire. Hydrogeological investigations highlighted the susceptibility of fen and upland areas to water table and soil moisture decline over rain-free periods (including winter), due to the watershed's reliance on supply from localized flow systems originating in topographic highs. Subtle changes in topographic position led to large changes in groundwater connectivity, leading to greater organic soil consumption by fire in wetland margins and at high elevations. The 2016 spring moisture conditions measured prior to the ignition of the fen watershed were not illustrated well by the Drought Code (DC) when standard overwintering procedures were applied. However, close agreement was found when default assumptions were replaced with measured duff soil moisture recharge and incorporated into the overwintering DC procedure. We conclude that accumulated moisture deficits dating back to the summer of 2015 led to the dry conditions that preceded the fire. The infrequent coinciding of several hydrometeorological conditions, including low autumn soil moisture, a modest snowpack, lack of spring precipitation, and high spring air temperatures and winds, ultimately led to the Horse river wildfire spreading widely and

  9. NLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 Hourly 0.125 x 0.125 degree V002 (NLDAS_NOAH0125_H) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains a series of land surface parameters simulated from the Noah land-surface model (LSM) for Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation...

  10. Mathematical modeling of current density distribution in composite cathode of solid oxide fuel cells. Paper no. IGEC-1-099

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenney, B.; Karan, K.

    2005-01-01

    Cathodes processes in a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) are thought to dominate the overall electrochemical losses. One strategy for minimizing the cathode electrochemical losses in a state-of-the-art SOFC that utilize lanthanum-strontium-manganate (LSM) electrocatalyst and yttria-stabilized-zirconia (YSZ) electrolyte is to utilize composite cathodes comprising a mixture of LSM and YSZ. Composite cathodes improve performance by extending the active reaction zone from electrolyte-electrode interface to throughout the electrode. In this study, a two-dimensional composite cathode model was developed to assess cathode performance in terms of current density distributions. The model results indicate that geometric and microstructural parameters strongly influence current density distribution. In addition electrode composition affects magnitude and distribution of current. An optimum composition for equal-sized LSM/YSZ is 40 vol% LSM and 60 vol% YSZ at 900 o C. (author)

  11. Effects of Groundwater Dynamics on Hydrometeorological Conditions over South America: Analysis of Offline NoahMP and Fully-coupled WRF-NoahMP Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Agudelo, J. A.; Dominguez, F.; Miguez-Macho, G.

    2014-12-01

    Renalysis data suggests that nearly 20% of the atmospheric moisture over the La Plata basin comes from Amazonian Evapotranspiration (ET). However, these estimates of ET are model dependent. Simulations using land-surface models (LSMs) in off-line mode (i.e. with prescribed atmospheric forcing) have shown that Amazonian ET depends on the groundwater dynamics. In this study we use the NoahMP LSM in off-line mode and the coupled system WRF-NoahMP to assess the role of groundwater on South American ET. In particular, we study the role of the groundwater in sustaining ET during the dry season in the southern Amazon and the La Plata basin. We compare simulations that do not account for the groundwater reservoir (free drainage approach) with simulations that include the Miguez-Macho and Fan parameterization to represent the groundwater storage, its lateral flow, and its interaction with the unsaturated zone. The off-line simulations show the effects associated solely with groundwater dynamics (as opposed to coupled land-atmosphere processes), while the coupled simulations provide information about the regulation and/or response from the atmosphere. Preliminary results from the coupled system suggest that the largest effects of the groundwater on ET are observed during the austral dry season. ET is larger over regions of Bolivia, Paraguay and Argentina when groundwater is included, due to the existence of a relatively shallow water table over these regions, which via upward capillary fluxes reduces drainage during the rainy season and increases soil moisture availability in the dry season. These differences in the simulated ET could have an impact on the estimates of the transport of atmospheric moisture to La Plata basin.

  12. The Operational Hydro-meteorological Ensemble Prediction System at Meteo-France and its representation interface for the French Service for Flood Prediction (SCHAPI) : description and undergoing developments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousset-Regimbeau, F.; Martin, E.; Thirel, G.; Habets, F.; Coustau, M.; Roquelaure, S.; De Saint Aubin, C.; Ardilouze, C.

    2012-04-01

    The coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) is developed at Meteo-France for many years. This fully distributed catchment model is used in a pre-operational mode since 2005 for producing mid-range ensemble streamflow forecasts based on the 51-member 10-day ECMWF EPS. Improvements have been made during the past few years.. First, a statistical adaptation has been performed to improve the meteorological ensemble predictions from the ECMWF. It has been developped over a 3-year archive, and assessed over a 1-year period. Its impact on the performance of the streamflow forecasts has been calculated over 8 months of predictions. Then, a past discharges assimilation system has been implemented in order to improve the initial states of these ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has been developped in the framework of a Phd thesis, and it is now evaluated in real-time conditions. Moreover, an improvement of the physics of the ISBA model (the exponential profile of the hydraulic conductivity in the soil) was implemented. Finally, this system provides ensemble 10-day streamflow prediction to the French National Service for Flood Prediction (SCHAPI). A collaboration between Meteo-France and SCHAPI led to the development of a new website. This website shows the streamflow predictions for about 200 selected river stations over France (selected regarding their interest for flood warning) , as well as alerts for high flows (two levels of high flows corresponding to the levels of risk of the French flood warning system). It aims at providing to the French hydrological forecaters a real-time tool for mid-range flood awareness.

  13. Hydrometeorological extremes at the Veselí nad Moravou estate (Czech Republic) in the period 1794-1850 derived from documentary evidence of the economic character

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, Kateřina

    2010-05-01

    Hydrometeorological extremes influenced always human activities (agriculture, forestry, water management) and caused losses of human lives and great material damage. Systematic meteorological and hydrological observations in the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. In order to create long-term series of hydrometeorological extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information for their study before 1850. Such direct and indirect information about hydrometeorological extremes is included in documentary evidence (e.g. chronicles, memoirs, diaries, early visual weather observations, newspapers, economic sources etc.). Documentary evidence of economic character belongs to the most important sources, especially documents related to taxation records. Damage to agricultural crops on the fields or damage to hay on meadows due to the hydrological and meteorological phenomena has been a good reason for the abatement of tax duty. Based on the official correspondence of the estate of Veselí nad Moravou (southern Moravia), archival information about taxation from the Moravian Land Archives in Brno was excerpted. Based on it, 46 hydrometeorological extremes which occurred between the years 1794 and 1850 were selected and further analysed. Because of fields and meadows of the above estate were located along the Morava River, reports of damage due to floods were the most frequent, followed by damage due to torrential rains and hailstorms.

  14. Hamiltonian approach to the lattice massive Schwinger model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sidorov, A.V.; Zastavenko, L.G.

    1996-01-01

    The authors consider the limit e 2 /m 2 much-lt 1 of the lattice massive Schwinger model, i.e., the lattice massive QED in two space-time dimensions, up to lowest order in the effective coupling constant e 2 /m 2 . Here, m is the fermion mass parameter and e is the electron charge. They compare their lattice QED model with the analogous continuous space and lattice space models, (CSM and LSM), which do not take account of the zero momentum mode, z.m.m., of the vector potential. The difference is that (due to extra z.m.m. degree of freedom) to every eigenstate of the CSM and LSM there corresponds a family of eigenstates of the authors lattice QED with the parameter λ. They restrict their consideration to small values of the parameter λ. Then, the energies of the particle states of their lattice QED and LSM do coincide (in their approximation). In the infinite periodicity length limit the Hamiltonian of the authors lattice QED (as well as the Hamiltonian of the LSM) possesses two different Hilbert spaces of eigenfunctions. Thus, in this limit the authors lattice QED model (as well as LSM) describes something like two connected, but different, worlds

  15. Activities of Hydrometeorologic Institute of Serbia - Belgrade, during the case of radioactive pollution of environment caused by the accident of nuclear power plant 'Chernobyl' in 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovic, Dj.

    2002-01-01

    The programme of 'Systematic testing of water quality' performed by Hydrometeorologic Institute of Serbia - Belgrade includes the measurement of total beta radioactivity on 33 sampling points. The measurement of total beta radioactivity is performed with instrument 'Lola - 4' produced by 'Institute for Nuclear Science - Vinca'. During the accident of Nuclear Power Plant 'Chernobyl' in 1986 arose the need to investigate the influence of this case on the environment of Belgrade and Serbia. In that respect a series of measurement of total beta radioactivity of rain water, surface waters, tap water and air were performed. Those measurements showed an increase of radioactivity of river waters. River Sava had radioactivity of 3,4 Bq/l (0,08 Bq/l in 1 9850 and river Danube 3-5 Bq/l (0,09 Bq/l in 1 985). High values of radioactivity were measured in the waters of highland accumulation lakes over 30 Bq/l. Rain water showed it's maximum of 52 Bq/l on 1 st and 2nd May l986 and it drooped to 0,3 Bq/l until 5th of June. Tap water showed it's maximum of 35,2 Bq/l on 12th May and it was reduced to 1 ,0 Bq/l on 2nd of June. Radioactivity of air showed it's maximum of 2,64 Bq/m 3 in the period 1 -3 May and in the period 5-8 May, 1 . - 1 ,57 Bq/m 3 . Measurement of river water radioactivity on 33 regular sampling points at the end of the year 1 986 showed that was no increase in comparison with the same measurements in 1 985. All mentioned results of the radioactivity of river waters and the waters of highland accumulations used to fall into ranges predicted by the model of the radioactive pollution distribution developed on the Imperial College -London. (author)

  16. Integrating Local Experiential and Hydrometeorological Data to Understand Knowledge Uncertainties and to Build Resilience to Flooding in Two Puerto Rican Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, M.; Nytch, C. J.; Branoff, B.

    2016-12-01

    Socio-hydrological studies that explore feedbacks between social and biophysical processes related to flood risk can help managers identify strategies that increase a community's freshwater security. However, knowledge uncertainty due to coarse spatio-temporal coverage of hydrological monitoring data, missing riverine discharge and precipitation records, assumptions of flood risk models, and effects of urbanization, can limit the ability of these studies to isolate hydrological responses to social drivers of flooding and a changing climate. Local experiential knowledge can provide much needed information about 1) actual flood spatio-temporal patterns, 2) human impacts and perceptions of flood events, and 3) mechanisms to validate flood risk studies and understand key social elements of the system. We addressed these knowledge gaps by comparing the location and timing of flood events described in resident interviews and resident drawn maps (total = 97) from two San Juan communities with NOAA and USGS precipitation and riverine discharge data archives, and FEMA flood maps. Analyses of five focal flood events revealed 1) riverine monitoring data failed to record a major flood event caused by localized blockage of the river, 2) residents did not mention multiple extreme riverine discharge events, 3) resident and FEMA flood maps matched closely but resident maps provided finer spatial information about frequency of flooding, and 4) only a small percentage of residents remembered the dates of flood events. Local knowledge provided valuable social data about flood impacts on human economic and physical/psychological wellbeing, perceptions about factors causing flooding, and what residents use as sources of flood information. A simple mechanism or tool for residents to record their flood experiences in real-time will address the uncertainties in local knowledge and improve social memory. The integration of local experiential knowledge with simulated and empirical hydro-meteorological

  17. Evaluating LSM-Based Water Budgets Over a West African Basin Assisted with a River Routing Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getirana, Augusto C. V.; Boone, Aaron; Peugeot, Christophe

    2014-01-01

    Within the framework of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (ALMIP-2), this study evaluates the water balance simulated by the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) over the upper Oum River basin, in Benin, using a mesoscale river routing scheme (RRS). The RRS is based on the nonlinear Muskingum Cunge method coupled with two linear reservoirs that simulate the time delay of both surface runoff and base flow that are produced by land surface models. On the basis of the evidence of a deep water-table recharge in that region,a reservoir representing the deep-water infiltration (DWI) is introduced. The hydrological processes of the basin are simulated for the 2005-08 AMMA field campaign period during which rainfall and stream flow data were intensively collected over the study area. Optimal RRS parameter sets were determined for three optimization experiments that were performed using daily stream flow at five gauges within the basin. Results demonstrate that the RRS simulates stream flow at all gauges with relative errors varying from -22% to 3% and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients varying from 0.62 to 0.90. DWI varies from 24% to 67% of the base flow as a function of the sub-basin. The relatively simple reservoir DWI approach is quite robust, and further improvements would likely necessitate more complex solutions (e.g., considering seasonality and soil type in ISBA); thus, such modifications are recommended for future studies. Although the evaluation shows that the simulated stream flows are generally satisfactory, further field investigations are necessary to confirm some of the model assumptions.

  18. In situ ToF-SIMS monitoring of SOFC cathodes - A case study of La0.74Sr0.17Mn1.01O2.9 model electrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohnke, M.; Schaepe, K.; Bachmann, A.-K.; Laenger, M.; Janek, J.

    2017-11-01

    The modelling of electrode kinetics of solid oxide fuel cells is challenging, as the electrodes can change their composition and microstructure during operation at high temperature. Here we present results from in situ studies, applying time of flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) to investigate compositional surface changes of lanthanum strontium manganate (LSM) model electrodes. Geometrically well-defined LSM electrodes with the composition La0.74Sr0.17Mn1.01O2.9 were deposited as thin films on yttria stabilised zirconia (YSZ) single crystals by pulsed laser deposition. As counter electrode, a porous platinum electrode was applied on the backside of the solid electrolyte. The electrochemical polarisation experiments were carried out inside the ToF-SIMS analysis chamber at 430 °C, and the ToF-SIMS measurements were performed - in contrast to former work - for the first time during electrical polarisation at elevated temperatures. By applying either a cathodic or anodic potential to the LSM cathode, enrichment or depletion of the different metallic constituents on both, the LSM and free YSZ surface, and within the LSM near surface region, were observed. After polarisation, the system relaxes towards the thermodynamic equilibrium state. Already after the first heat treatment, diffusion of manganese and strontium from the LSM electrode onto the free YSZ surface is observed. The concomitant spreading of the three-phase boundary seems to be one reason for electrode activation after polarisation.

  19. Dynamic regulation of genome-wide pre-mRNA splicing and stress tolerance by the Sm-like protein LSm5 in Arabidopsis

    KAUST Repository

    Cui, Peng

    2014-01-07

    Background: Sm-like proteins are highly conserved proteins that form the core of the U6 ribonucleoprotein and function in several mRNA metabolism processes, including pre-mRNA splicing. Despite their wide occurrence in all eukaryotes, little is known about the roles of Sm-like proteins in the regulation of splicing.Results: Here, through comprehensive transcriptome analyses, we demonstrate that depletion of the Arabidopsis supersensitive to abscisic acid and drought 1 gene (SAD1), which encodes Sm-like protein 5 (LSm5), promotes an inaccurate selection of splice sites that leads to a genome-wide increase in alternative splicing. In contrast, overexpression of SAD1 strengthens the precision of splice-site recognition and globally inhibits alternative splicing. Further, SAD1 modulates the splicing of stress-responsive genes, particularly under salt-stress conditions. Finally, we find that overexpression of SAD1 in Arabidopsis improves salt tolerance in transgenic plants, which correlates with an increase in splicing accuracy and efficiency for stress-responsive genes.Conclusions: We conclude that SAD1 dynamically controls splicing efficiency and splice-site recognition in Arabidopsis, and propose that this may contribute to SAD1-mediated stress tolerance through the metabolism of transcripts expressed from stress-responsive genes. Our study not only provides novel insights into the function of Sm-like proteins in splicing, but also uncovers new means to improve splicing efficiency and to enhance stress tolerance in a higher eukaryote. 2014 Cui et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  20. Local adaptive capacity as an alternative approach in dealing with hydrometeorological risk at Depok Peri-Urban City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitrinitia, I. S.; Junadi, P.; Sutanto, E.; Nugroho, D. A.; Zubair, A.; Suyanti, E.

    2018-03-01

    Located in a tropical area, cities in Indonesia are vulnerable to hydrometeorological risks such as flood and landslide and thus become prone to the climate change effects. Moreover, peri-urban cities had double burden as the consequences of main city spill over and also lack of urban facilities in overcoming the disaster. In another perspective, the city has many alternative resources to recover, so its create urban resiliency. Depok city becomes a case study of this research regarding with its development following the impact of Jakarta growth. This research purposes to capture how the local city dwellers could anticipate and adaptive with flood and landslide with their own mitigation version. Through mix method and spatial analysis using GIS techniques, it derives the two comparison approach, the normative and alternative that had been done by the city dwellers. It uses a spatial analysis to have a big picture of Depok and its environmental changing. It also divided into 4 local group of communities as a representative of city dwellers regarding the characteristic of a settlement with their level of risk. The result found type or characteristic of settlement which influenced the local adaptive capacity, from the establishment of infrastructure, health fulfillment and social livelihood with different kind of methods.

  1. Recent Advances in Modeling of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Land Surface in the Coupled WRF-CMAQ Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Advances in the land surface model (LSM) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) components of the WRF-CMAQ coupled meteorology and air quality modeling system are described. The aim of these modifications was primarily to improve the modeling of ground level concentrations of trace c...

  2. Hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) in the period 1751-1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, K.; Brázdil, R.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2012-04-01

    Hydrometeorological extremes always influenced human activities and caused great material damage or even loss of human lives. In the Czech Lands (recently the Czech Republic), systematic meteorological and hydrological observations started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. In order to create long-term series of hydrometeorological extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information for their study before 1850. In this study, written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751-1900. The taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, and the impacts on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage is documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), and flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about

  3. Trend Analysis of Hydro-meteorological variables in the coastal area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    1Department of Water Resources & Environmental Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin ... global climate change should be regarded as one of ... attributed to rural-urban migration which accounts ..... Modeling Global Warming Impact on.

  4. Evaluating short-term hydro-meteorological fluxes using GRACE-derived water storage changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eicker, A.; Jensen, L.; Springer, A.; Kusche, J.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric and terrestrial water budgets, which represent important boundary conditions for both climate modeling and hydrological studies, are linked by evapotranspiration (E) and precipitation (P). These fields are provided by numerical weather prediction models and atmospheric reanalyses such as ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land; yet, in particular the quality of E is still not well evaluated. Via the terrestrial water budget equation, water storage changes derived from products of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, combined with runoff (R) data can be used to assess the realism of atmospheric models. In this contribution we will investigate the closure of the water balance for short-term fluxes, i.e. the agreement of GRACE water storage changes with P-E-R flux time series from different (global and regional) atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, as well as observation-based data sets. Missing river runoff observations will be extrapolated using the calibrated rainfall-runoff model GR2M. We will perform a global analysis and will additionally focus on selected river basins in West Africa. The investigations will be carried out for various temporal scales, focusing on short-term fluxes down to daily variations to be detected in daily GRACE time series.

  5. Applying a coupled hydrometeorological simulation system to flash flood forecasting over the Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Young; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Ji, Hee-Sook; Park, Hyun-Hee; Chang, Eun-Chul; Kim, Baek-Jo

    2017-11-01

    In flash flood forecasting, it is necessary to consider not only traditional meteorological variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, but also hydrological components such as streamflow. To address this challenge, the application of high resolution coupled atmospheric-hydrological models is emerging as a promising alternative. This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model (WRF/WRFHydro) with 150-m horizontal grid spacing for flash flood forecasting in Korea. The study area is the Namgang Dam basin in Southern Korea, a mountainous area located downstream of Jiri Mountain (1915 m in height). Under flash flood conditions, the simulated precipitation over the entire basin is comparable to the domain-averaged precipitation, but discharge data from WRF-Hydro shows some differences in the total available water and the temporal distribution of streamflow (given by the timing of the streamflow peak following precipitation), compared to observations. On the basis of sensitivity tests, the parameters controlling the infiltration of excess precipitation and channel roughness depending on stream order are refined and their influence on temporal distribution of streamflow is addressed with intent to apply WRF-Hydro to flash flood forecasting in the Namgang Dam basin. The simulation results from the WRF-Hydro model with optimized parameters demonstrate the potential utility of a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model for forecasting heavy rain-induced flash flooding over the Korean Peninsula.

  6. Extreme hydrometeorological events in the Peruvian Central Andes during austral summer and their relationship with the large-scale circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulca, Juan C.

    In this Master's dissertation, atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme hydrometeorological events in the Mantaro Basin, Peruvian Central Andes, and their teleconnections during the austral summer (December-January-February-March) are addressed. Extreme rainfall events in the Mantaro basin are related to variations of the large-scale circulation as indicated by the changing strength of the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low (BH-NL) system. Dry (wet) spells are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of the BH-NL system and reduced (enhanced) influx of moist air from the lowlands to the east due to strengthened westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels. At the same time extreme rainfall events of the opposite sign occur over northeastern Brazil (NEB) due to enhanced (inhibited) convective activity in conjunction with a strengthened (weakened) Nordeste Low. Cold episodes in the Mantaro Basin are grouped in three types: weak, strong and extraordinary cold episodes. Weak and strong cold episodes in the MB are mainly associated with a weakening of the BH-NL system due to tropical-extratropical interactions. Both types of cold episodes are associated with westerly wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels aloft the Peruvian Central Andes, which inhibit the influx of humid air masses from the lowlands to the east and hence limit the potential for development of convective cloud cover. The resulting clear sky conditions cause nighttime temperatures to drop, leading to cold extremes below the 10-percentile. Extraordinary cold episodes in the MB are associated with cold and dry polar air advection at all tropospheric levels toward the central Peruvian Andes. Therefore, weak and strong cold episodes in the MB appear to be caused by radiative cooling associated with reduced cloudiness, rather than cold air advection, while the latter plays an important role for extraordinary cold episodes only.

  7. An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Altava-Ortiz

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

  8. An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, M. C.; Llasat-Botija, M.; Barnolas, M.; López, L.; Altava-Ortiz, V.

    2009-07-01

    This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

  9. Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System for Local Modeling Applications and Improved Situational Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Blakenship, Clay B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.

    2014-01-01

    As part of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Early Adopter (EA) program, the NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has implemented a data assimilation (DA) routine into the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for soil moisture retrievals from the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The SMAP EA program promotes application-driven research to provide a fundamental understanding of how SMAP data products will be used to improve decision-making at operational agencies. SPoRT has partnered with select NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) that use output from a real-time regional configuration of LIS, without soil moisture DA, to initialize local numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and enhance situational awareness. Improvements to local NWP with the current LIS have been demonstrated; however, a better representation of the land surface through assimilation of SMOS (and eventually SMAP) retrievals is expected to lead to further model improvement, particularly during warm-season months. SPoRT will collaborate with select WFOs to assess the impact of soil moisture DA on operational forecast situations. Assimilation of the legacy SMOS instrument data provides an opportunity to develop expertise in preparation for using SMAP data products shortly after the scheduled launch on 5 November 2014. SMOS contains a passive L-band radiometer that is used to retrieve surface soil moisture at 35-km resolution with an accuracy of 0.04 cu cm cm (exp -3). SMAP will feature a comparable passive L-band instrument in conjunction with a 3-km resolution active radar component of slightly degraded accuracy. A combined radar-radiometer product will offer unprecedented global coverage of soil moisture at high spatial resolution (9 km) for hydrometeorological applications, balancing the resolution and accuracy of the active and passive instruments, respectively. The LIS software framework manages land surface model

  10. Assessing hydrometeorological impacts with terrestrial and aerial Lidar data in Monterrey, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yepez Rincon, F.; Lozano Garcia, D.; Vela Coiffier, P.; Rivera Rivera, L.

    2013-10-01

    Light Detection Ranging (Lidar) is an efficient tool to gather points reflected from a terrain and store them in a xyz coordinate system, allowing the generation of 3D data sets to manage geoinformation. Translation of these coordinates, from an arbitrary system into a geographical base, makes data feasible and useful to calculate volumes and define topographic characteristics at different scales. Lidar technological advancement in topographic mapping enables the generation of highly accurate and densely sampled elevation models, which are in high demand by many industries like construction, mining and forestry. This study merges terrestrial and aerial Lidar data to evaluate the effectiveness of these tools assessing volumetric changes after a hurricane event of riverbeds and scour bridges The resulted information could be an optimal approach to improve hydrological and hydraulic models, to aid authorities in proper to decision making in construction, urban planning, and homeland security.

  11. Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting for early warning of floods and scheduling of hydropower production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments depending

  12. HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Konrad; Monhart, Samuel; Liniger, Mark; Spririg, Christoph; Jordan, Fred; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent years large progresses have been achieved in the operational prediction of floods and hydrological drought with up to ten days lead time. Both the public and the private sectors are currently using probabilistic runoff forecast in order to monitoring water resources and take actions when critical conditions are to be expected. The use of extended-range predictions with lead times exceeding 10 days is not yet established. The hydropower sector in particular might have large benefits from using hydro meteorological forecasts for the next 15 to 60 days in order to optimize the operations and the revenues from their watersheds, dams, captions, turbines and pumps. The new Swiss Competence Centers in Energy Research (SCCER) targets at boosting research related to energy issues in Switzerland. The objective of HEPS4POWER is to demonstrate that operational extended-range hydro meteorological forecasts have the potential to become very valuable tools for fine tuning the production of energy from hydropower systems. The project team covers a specific system-oriented value chain starting from the collection and forecast of meteorological data (MeteoSwiss), leading to the operational application of state-of-the-art hydrological models (WSL) and terminating with the experience in data presentation and power production forecasts for end-users (e-dric.ch). The first task of the HEPS4POWER will be the downscaling and post-processing of ensemble extended-range meteorological forecasts (EPS). The goal is to provide well-tailored forecasts of probabilistic nature that should be reliable in statistical and localized at catchment or even station level. The hydrology related task will consist in feeding the post-processed meteorological forecasts into a HEPS using a multi-model approach by implementing models with different complexity. Also in the case of the hydrological ensemble predictions, post-processing techniques need to be tested in order to improve the quality of the

  13. Twentieth-Century Hydrometeorological Reconstructions to Study the Multidecadal Variations of the Water Cycle Over France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnet, R.; Boé, J.; Dayon, G.; Martin, E.

    2017-10-01

    Characterizing and understanding the multidecadal variations of the continental hydrological cycle is a challenging issue given the limitation of observed data sets. In this paper, a new approach to derive twentieth century hydrological reconstructions over France with an hydrological model is presented. The method combines the results of long-term atmospheric reanalyses downscaled with a stochastic statistical method and homogenized station observations to derive the meteorological forcing needed for hydrological modeling. Different methodological choices are tested and evaluated. We show that using homogenized observations to constrain the results of statistical downscaling help to improve the reproduction of precipitation, temperature, and river flows variability. In particular, it corrects some unrealistic long-term trends associated with the atmospheric reanalyses. Observationally constrained reconstructions therefore constitute a valuable data set to study the multidecadal hydrological variations over France. Thanks to these reconstructions, we confirm that the multidecadal variations previously noted in French river flows have mainly a climatic origin. Moreover, we show that multidecadal variations exist in other hydrological variables (evapotranspiration, snow cover, and soil moisture). Depending on the region, the persistence from spring to summer of soil moisture or snow anomalies generated during spring by temperature and precipitation variations may explain river flows variations in summer, when no concomitant climate variations exist.

  14. Hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts, as derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, AD 1751-1900

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brázdil, R.; Chromá, K.; Valášek, H.; Dolák, L.

    2011-12-01

    Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic) are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period AD 1751-1900. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage is documented for 1751-1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed). The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types) include hailstorm (25.7%), torrential rain (21.7%), and flood (21.0%), followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890) and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847). Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816-1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961-2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May-August) and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance). Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  15. EPS composition and calcification potential of tufa-dominating cyanobacteria investigated by Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy (STXM) and Laser Scanning Microscopy (LSM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zippel, Barbara; Dynes, James J.; Obst, Martin; Lawrence, John R.; Neu, Thomas R.

    2010-05-01

    Tufa deposits in freshwater habitats are the result of calcium carbonate precipitation within interfacial microbial ecosystems. Calcite precipitation is influenced by the saturation index and the occurrence of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) which are produced by a variety of microorganisms. In theory, the first important step of biologically induced calcification processes is the adsorption of calcium ions by extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) produced by cyanobacteria. In the present study we take advantage of Laser Scanning Microscopy (LSM) and combine it with Synchrotron imaging using Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy (STXM). STXM represents a technique that allows simultaneous analysis of inorganic and organic constituents as a scale of 50 nm. By means of STXM it is possible to differentiate between calcium carbonate phases at the Ca L-edge. Furthermore, STXM has also been used at the C K-edge to map the major biomolecules (proteins, lipids, and polysaccharides). The purpose of this study is to find out if there are differences in calcium adsorption depending on specific composition of the EPS produced by filamentous cyanobacteria isolated from a German hard water creek (Westerhöfer Bach, Harz Mountains). The goal was to elucidate the potential of biofilms constituents, including microbial cell surfaces as well as extracellular polymeric substances, in triggering the formation of calcium carbonate in tufa systems. For this purpose three filamentous cyanobacteria (Pseudanabaena sp., Leptolyngbya sp. and Nostoc sp.) were cultivated in creek-adapted as well as standard media (BG11) on polycarbonate slides. In situ EPS composition was detected by means of fluorescence lectin-binding approach (FLBA) using 23 commercially available lectins with different specificities for mono- and disaccharides and amino sugars. For CaCO3 nucleation experiments cyanobacterial biofilms grown on polycarbonate slides were deposited in NaHCO3/CaCl2 solutions

  16. Observing Seasonal and Diurnal Hydrometeorological Variability Within a Tropical Alpine Valley: Implications for Evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, R. A.; Mark, B. G.

    2007-12-01

    Conditions of glacier recession in the seasonally dry tropical Peruvian Andes motivate research to better constrain the hydrological balance in alpine valleys. There is an outstanding need to better understand the impact of the pronounced tropical hygric seasonality on energy and water budgets within pro-glacial valleys that channel glacier runoff to stream flow. This paper presents a novel embedded network installed in the glacierized Llanganuco valley of the Cordillera Blanca (9°S) comprising eight low-cost, discrete temperature and humidity microloggers ranging from 3470 to 4740 masl and an automatic weather station at 3850 masl. Data are aggregated into distinct dry and wet periods sampled from two full annual cycles (2004-2006) to explore patterns of diurnal and seasonal variability. The magnitude of diurnal solar radiation varies little within the valley between the dry and wet periods, while wet season near-surface air temperatures are cooler. Seasonally characteristic diurnal fluctuations in lapse rate partially regulate convection and humidity. Steep lapse rates during the wet season afternoon promote up-slope convection of warm, moist air and nocturnal rainfall events. Standardized grass reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was estimated using the FAO-56 algorithm of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and compared with estimates of actual ET from the process-based BROOK90 model that incorporates more realistic vegetation parameters. Comparisons of composite diurnal cycles of ET for the wet and dry periods suggest about twice the daily ET0 during the dry period, attributed primarily to the 500% higher vapor pressure deficit and 20% higher daily total solar irradiance. Conversely, the near absence of rainfall during the dry season diminishes actual ET below that of the wet season by two orders of magnitude. Nearly cloud-free daylight conditions are critical for ET during the wet season. We found significant variability of ET with elevation

  17. The Amazon hydrometeorology: Climatology, variability and links to changes in weather patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Katia De Avila

    My thesis focuses on improving the quantification of the hydrological cycle and understanding the atmospheric processes that link weather to climate in the Amazon River basin. By using ERA40 and independent observations, I assess how well we can estimate the surface water budget in the Amazon River basin. I find that ERA40 basin wide annual precipitation (P) overall agrees with observations showing a slight underestimation of 10% in average, whereas runoff (R) is underestimated by a larger margin (˜25%). Observed residual of precipitation and runoff (denoted as P-R) is better estimated by ERA40 P-R than actual ET which includes soil moisture nudging. The causes for said discrepancies were found to partly relate to soil moisture nudging that needs to be applied during the dry season to produce realistic ET and compensate for the low soil moisture recharge during the previous wet season. Insufficient recharge may in part be caused by underestimation of rainfall amount and intensity; moreover the shallow root layer in the model does not represent the deep soil water reservoir characteristic of the Amazonian forest. Whether the hydrological cycle and weather patterns in the Amazon have changed during the past few decades is a highly debatable but central question for detecting climate change in the region. The second part of my thesis focus on the physical links between rainfall changes detected in observations, and changes of synoptic scale systems as represented by ERA40. My results suggest that an observed delayed wet season onset is consistent with a decreasing number of cold air incursion (CAI) days in southern Amazon for the period 1979--2001. The variability of CAI into southern Amazon is related to the variability of SST upstream of South America in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. A Singular Value Decomposition Analysis (SVD) between CAI days and global SST reveal three main modes of co-variability. The first mode describes the effect of the El Nino

  18. Modeling of Reservoir Inflow for Hydropower Dams Using Artificial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The stream flow at the three hydropower reservoirs in Nigeria were modeled using hydro-meteorological parameters and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model revealed positive relationship between the observed and the modeled reservoir inflow with values of correlation coefficient of 0.57, 0.84 and 0.92 for Kainji, ...

  19. The Rofental: a high Alpine research basin (1890–3770 m a.s.l. in the Ötztal Alps (Austria with over 150 years of hydrometeorological and glaciological observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Strasser

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented, originating from a multitude of glaciological, meteorological, hydrological and laser scanning recordings at research sites in the Rofental (1891–3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria. The data sets span a period of 150 years and hence represent a unique time series of rich high-altitude mountain observations. Their collection was originally initiated to support scientific investigation of the glaciers Hintereisferner, Kesselwandferner and Vernagtferner. Annual mass balance, glacier front variation, flow velocities and photographic records of the status of these glaciers were recorded. Later, additional measurements of meteorological and hydrological variables were undertaken, and over time a number of autonomous weather stations and runoff gauges were brought into operation; the available data now comprise records of temperature, relative humidity, short- and longwave radiation, wind speed and direction, air pressure, precipitation, and river water levels. Since 2001, a series of distributed (airborne and terrestrial laser scans is available, along with associated digital surface models. In 2016 a permanent terrestrial laser scanner was installed on Im hintern Eis (3244 m a.s.l. to continuously observe almost the entire area of Hintereisferner. The data and research undertaken at the sites of investigation in the Rofental area enable combined research of cryospheric, atmospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and support the development of several state-of-the-art glacier mass balance and hydroclimatological models. The institutions taking part in the Rofental research framework promote their site in several international research initiatives. In INARCH (International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology, http://words.usask.ca/inarch, all original research data sets are now provided to the scientific community according to the

  20. The Rofental: a high Alpine research basin (1890-3770 m a.s.l.) in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) with over 150 years of hydrometeorological and glaciological observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Marke, Thomas; Braun, Ludwig; Escher-Vetter, Heidi; Juen, Irmgard; Kuhn, Michael; Maussion, Fabien; Mayer, Christoph; Nicholson, Lindsey; Niedertscheider, Klaus; Sailer, Rudolf; Stötter, Johann; Weber, Markus; Kaser, Georg

    2018-01-01

    A comprehensive hydrometeorological and glaciological data set is presented, originating from a multitude of glaciological, meteorological, hydrological and laser scanning recordings at research sites in the Rofental (1891-3772 m a.s.l., Ötztal Alps, Austria). The data sets span a period of 150 years and hence represent a unique time series of rich high-altitude mountain observations. Their collection was originally initiated to support scientific investigation of the glaciers Hintereisferner, Kesselwandferner and Vernagtferner. Annual mass balance, glacier front variation, flow velocities and photographic records of the status of these glaciers were recorded. Later, additional measurements of meteorological and hydrological variables were undertaken, and over time a number of autonomous weather stations and runoff gauges were brought into operation; the available data now comprise records of temperature, relative humidity, short- and longwave radiation, wind speed and direction, air pressure, precipitation, and river water levels. Since 2001, a series of distributed (airborne and terrestrial) laser scans is available, along with associated digital surface models. In 2016 a permanent terrestrial laser scanner was installed on Im hintern Eis (3244 m a.s.l.) to continuously observe almost the entire area of Hintereisferner. The data and research undertaken at the sites of investigation in the Rofental area enable combined research of cryospheric, atmospheric and hydrological processes in complex terrain, and support the development of several state-of-the-art glacier mass balance and hydroclimatological models. The institutions taking part in the Rofental research framework promote their site in several international research initiatives. In INARCH (International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology, http://words.usask.ca/inarch), all original research data sets are now provided to the scientific community according to the Creative Commons Attribution

  1. Studying the Aspects of Knowledge Creation in the LAB Studio Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kari-Pekka Heikkinen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The organisations of higher education are constantly changing. Universities, colleges, private schools and online universities refine their pedagogical methods and learning models in a competitive market. This article is a study on whether one such model helps students to gain new knowledge. A study of the LAB studio model (LSM, which is a pedagogical model developing connections between working-life based problems and the recognition and development of business-related prototypes and start-up companies, is presented. The LSM, theoretically grounded in a constructivist view of learning with a project-based education at its core, has the key goal of educating entrepreneurial competences in higher education. Based on the case study, comprisinga literature review of knowledge creation and a survey, the qualitative results analysis suggests that LSM offers a promising support for knowledge creation. The results lead to the conclusion that LSM provides support especially for the various modes of the SECI model, such as socialisation and internalisation, and seems to support organisational knowledge creation aspects as well.

  2. An Intercomparison of ERS-Scat, AMSR-E Soil Moisture Observations with Model Simulations over France

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rudiger, C.; Calvet, J.C.; Gruhier, C.; Holmes, T.R.H.; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Wagner, W.W.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a study undertaken in preparation of the work leading up to the assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) observations into the land surface model (LSM) Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) at Météo-France. This study consists of an intercomparison

  3. Detecting geothermal anomalies and evaluating LST geothermal component by combining thermal remote sensing time series and land surface model data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romaguera, M.; Vaughan, R. G.; Ettema, J.; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E.; Hecker, C. A.; van der Meer, F. D.

    This paper explores for the first time the possibilities to use two land surface temperature (LST) time series of different origins (geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite data and Noah land surface modelling, LSM), to detect geothermal anomalies and extract the geothermal component of

  4. Detecting geothermal anomalies and evaluating LST geothermal component by combining thermal remote sensing time series and land surface model data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romaguera, M.; Vaughan, R. G.; Ettema, J.; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E.; Hecker, C. A.; van der Meer, F. D.

    2017-01-01

    This paper explores for the first time the possibilities to use two land surface temperature (LST) time series of different origins (geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite data and Noah land surface modelling, LSM), to detect geothermal anomalies and extract the geothermal component of

  5. The Role of Surface Energy Exchange for Simulating Wind Inflow: An Evaluation of Multiple Land Surface Models in WRF for the Southern Great Plains Site Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, Sonia [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Osuna, Jessica [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biraud, Sebastien [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate choice of land surface model (LSM) on the near-surface wind profile, including heights reached by multi-megawatt wind turbines. Simulations of wind profiles and surface energy fluxes were made using five LSMs of varying degrees of sophistication in dealing with soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in Oklahoma. Surface-flux and wind-profile measurements were available for validation. The WRF model was run for three two-week periods during which varying canopy and meteorological conditions existed. The LSMs predicted a wide range of energy-flux and wind-shear magnitudes even during the cool autumn period when we expected less variability. Simulations of energy fluxes varied in accuracy by model sophistication, whereby LSMs with very simple or no soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks were the least accurate; however, the most complex models did not consistently produce more accurate results. Errors in wind shear also were sensitive to LSM choice and were partially related to the accuracy of energy flux data. The variability of LSM performance was relatively high, suggesting that LSM representation of energy fluxes in the WRF model remains a significant source of uncertainty for simulating wind turbine inflow conditions.

  6. Integrating data and mashup concepts in Hydro-Meteorological Research: the torrential rainfall event in Genoa (4th November 2011) case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedrina, T.; Parodi, A.; Quarati, A.; Clematis, A.; Rebora, N.; Laiosa, D.

    2012-04-01

    One of the critical issues in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR) is a better exploitation of data archives according to a multidisciplinary perspective. Different Earth science databases offer a huge amount of observational data, which often need to be assembled, processed, combined accordingly HM scientists needs. The cooperation between scientists active in HMR and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) is essential in the development of innovative tools and applications for manipulating, aggregating and re-arranging heterogeneous information in flexible way. In this paper it is described an application devoted to the collection and integration of HM datasets, originated by public or private sources, freely exposed via Web services API. This application uses the mashup, recently become very popular in many fields, (Chow S.-W., 2007) technology concepts. Such methodology means combination of data and/or programs published by external online sources into an integrated experience. Mashup seems to be a promising methodology to respond to the multiple data-related activities into which HM researchers are daily involved (e.g. finding and retrieving high volume data; learning formats and developing readers; extracting parameters; performing filtering and mask; developing analysis and visualization tools). The specific case study of the recent extreme rainfall event, occurred over Genoa in Italy on the 4th November 2011 is shown through the integration of semi-professional weather observational networks as free available data source in addition to official weather networks.

  7. WRF model for precipitation simulation and its application in real-time flood forecasting in the Jinshajiang River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jianzhong; Zhang, Hairong; Zhang, Jianyun; Zeng, Xiaofan; Ye, Lei; Liu, Yi; Tayyab, Muhammad; Chen, Yufan

    2017-07-01

    An accurate flood forecasting with long lead time can be of great value for flood prevention and utilization. This paper develops a one-way coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system consisting of the mesoscale numerical weather model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Chinese Xinanjiang hydrological model to extend flood forecasting lead time in the Jinshajiang River Basin, which is the largest hydropower base in China. Focusing on four typical precipitation events includes: first, the combinations and mode structures of parameterization schemes of WRF suitable for simulating precipitation in the Jinshajiang River Basin were investigated. Then, the Xinanjiang model was established after calibration and validation to make up the hydro-meteorological system. It was found that the selection of the cloud microphysics scheme and boundary layer scheme has a great impact on precipitation simulation, and only a proper combination of the two schemes could yield accurate simulation effects in the Jinshajiang River Basin and the hydro-meteorological system can provide instructive flood forecasts with long lead time. On the whole, the one-way coupled hydro-meteorological model could be used for precipitation simulation and flood prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin because of its relatively high precision and long lead time.

  8. Hyper-Resolution Global Land Surface Model at Regional-to-Local Scales with observed Groundwater data assimilation

    OpenAIRE

    Singh, Raj Shekhar

    2014-01-01

    Modeling groundwater is challenging: it is not readily visible and is difficult to measure, with limited sets of observations available. Even though groundwater models can reproduce water table and head variations, considerable drift in modeled land surface states can nonetheless result from partially known geologic structure, errors in the input forcing fields, and imperfect Land Surface Model (LSM) parameterizations. These models frequently have biased results that are very different from o...

  9. International Severe Weather and Flash Flood Hazard Early Warning Systems—Leveraging Coordination, Cooperation, and Partnerships through a Hydrometeorological Project in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Jubach

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate, weather and water hazards do not recognize national boundaries. Transboundary/regional programs and cooperation are essential to reduce the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods when facing these hazards. The development and implementation of systems to provide early warnings for severe weather events such as cyclones and flash floods requires data and information sharing in real time, and coordination among the government agencies at all levels. Within a country, this includes local, municipal, provincial-to-national levels as well as regional and international entities involved in hydrometeorological services and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR. Of key importance are the National Meteorological and Hydrologic Services (NMHSs. The NMHS is generally the authority solely responsible for issuing warnings for these hazards. However, in many regions of the world, the linkages and interfaces between the NMHS and other agencies are weak or non-existent. Therefore, there is a critical need to assess, strengthen, and formalize collaborations when addressing the concept of reducing risk and impacts from severe weather and floods. The U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance; the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO; the WMO Southern Africa Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, hosted by the South African Weather Service; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service and the Hydrologic Research Center (a non-profit corporation are currently implementing a project working with Southern Africa NMHSs on addressing this gap. The project aims to strengthen coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels. The project partners are working with the NMHSs to apply and implement appropriate tools and infrastructure to enhance currently operational severe weather and flash flood early warning systems in each country in support of

  10. UC Irvine CHRS Real-time Global Satellite Precipitation Monitoring System (G-WADI PERSIANN-CCS GeoServer) for Hydrometeorological Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K. L.; Gao, X.; Imam, B.; Nguyen, P.; Braithwaite, D.; Logan, W. S.; Mishra, A.

    2015-12-01

    The G-WADI Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) GeoServer has been successfully developed by the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) at the University of California Irvine in collaboration with the UNESCO's International Hydrological Programme (IHP) and a number of its international centers. The system employs state-of-the-art technologies in remote sensing and artificial intelligence to estimate precipitation globally from satellite imagery in real-time and high spatiotemporal resolution (4km, hourly). It offers graphical tools and data service to help the user in emergency planning and management for natural disasters related to hydrological processes. The G-WADI PERSIANN-CCS GeoServer has been upgraded with new user-friendly functionalities. The precipitation data generated by the GeoServer is disseminated to the user community through support provided by ICIWaRM (The International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management), UNESCO and UC Irvine. Recently a number of new applications for mobile devices have been developed by our students. The RainMapper has been available on App Store and Google Play for the real-time PERSIANN-CCS observations. A global crowd sourced rainfall reporting system named iRain has also been developed to engage the public globally to provide qualitative information about real-time precipitation in their location which will be useful in improving the quality of the PERSIANN-CCS data. A number of recent examples of the application and use of the G-WADI PERSIANN-CCS GeoServer information will also be presented.

  11. Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations: Bringing Science and Decision-Makers Together to Explore Use of Hydrometeorological Forecasts to Support Future Reservoir Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, F. M.; Jasperse, J.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a proposed strategy that is exploring inorporation of improved hydrometeorological forecasts of land-falling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast into reservoir operations. The first testbed for this strategy is Lake Mendocino, which is located in the East Fork of the 1485 mi2 Russian River Watershed in northern California. This project is guided by the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC). The SC is an ad hoc committee that consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current or improved technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve water supply reliability, enhance flood mitigation and support recovery of listed salmon for the Russian River of northern California. In 2015, the SC created a detailed work plan, which included a Preliminary Viability Assessment, which has now been completed. The SC developed a vision that operational efficiency would be improved by using forecasts to inform decisions about releasing or storing water. FIRO would use available reservoir storage in an efficient manner by (1) better forecasting inflow (or lack of inflow) with enhanced technology, and (2) adapting operation in real time to meet the need for storage, rather than making storage available just in case it is needed. The envisioned FIRO strategy has the potential to simultaneously improve water supply reliability, flood protection, and ecosystem outcomes through a more efficient use of existing infrastructure while requiring minimal capital improvements in the physical structure of the dam. This presentation will provide an overview of the creation of the FIRO SC and how it operates, and describes the lessons learned through this partnership. Results in the FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment will be summarized and next steps described.

  12. Geo-social media as a proxy for hydrometeorological data for streamflow estimation and to improve flood monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restrepo-Estrada, Camilo; de Andrade, Sidgley Camargo; Abe, Narumi; Fava, Maria Clara; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario; de Albuquerque, João Porto

    2018-02-01

    Floods are one of the most devastating types of worldwide disasters in terms of human, economic, and social losses. If authoritative data is scarce, or unavailable for some periods, other sources of information are required to improve streamflow estimation and early flood warnings. Georeferenced social media messages are increasingly being regarded as an alternative source of information for coping with flood risks. However, existing studies have mostly concentrated on the links between geo-social media activity and flooded areas. Thus, there is still a gap in research with regard to the use of social media as a proxy for rainfall-runoff estimations and flood forecasting. To address this, we propose using a transformation function that creates a proxy variable for rainfall by analysing geo-social media messages and rainfall measurements from authoritative sources, which are later incorporated within a hydrological model for streamflow estimation. We found that the combined use of official rainfall values with the social media proxy variable as input for the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), improved streamflow simulations for flood monitoring. The combination of authoritative sources and transformed geo-social media data during flood events achieved a 71% degree of accuracy and a 29% underestimation rate in a comparison made with real streamflow measurements. This is a significant improvement on the respective values of 39% and 58%, achieved when only authoritative data were used for the modelling. This result is clear evidence of the potential use of derived geo-social media data as a proxy for environmental variables for improving flood early-warning systems.

  13. LSM Microelectrodes: Kinetics and Surface Composition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Karin Vels; Norrman, Kion; Jacobsen, Torben

    2015-01-01

    spectroscopy and cyclic voltammetry were performed on electrodes with diameters of 20–100 μm in oxygen, air and nitrogen both at open circuit voltage and at anodic and cathodic polarization. In situ conductance mapping, ex situ surface analysis by time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry, and scanning...

  14. Baryon and meson phenomenology in the extended Linear Sigma Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giacosa, Francesco; Habersetzer, Anja; Teilab, Khaled; Eshraim, Walaa; Divotgey, Florian; Olbrich, Lisa; Gallas, Susanna; Wolkanowski, Thomas; Janowski, Stanislaus; Heinz, Achim; Deinet, Werner; Rischke, Dirk H. [Institute for Theoretical Physics, J. W. Goethe University, Max-von-Laue-Str. 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Kovacs, Peter; Wolf, Gyuri [Institute for Particle and Nuclear Physics, Wigner Research Center for Physics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, H-1525 Budapest (Hungary); Parganlija, Denis [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Vienna University of Technology, Wiedner Hauptstr. 8-10, A-1040 Vienna (Austria)

    2014-07-01

    The vacuum phenomenology obtained within the so-called extended Linear Sigma Model (eLSM) is presented. The eLSM Lagrangian is constructed by including from the very beginning vector and axial-vector d.o.f., and by requiring dilatation invariance and chiral symmetry. After a general introduction of the approach, particular attention is devoted to the latest results. In the mesonic sector the strong decays of the scalar and the pseudoscalar glueballs, the weak decays of the tau lepton into vector and axial-vector mesons, and the description of masses and decays of charmed mesons are shown. In the baryonic sector the omega production in proton-proton scattering and the inclusion of baryons with strangeness are described.

  15. Changes in hydro-meteorological conditions over tropical West Africa (1980-2015) and links to global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndehedehe, Christopher E.; Awange, Joseph L.; Agutu, Nathan O.; Okwuashi, Onuwa

    2018-03-01

    The role of global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating rainfall in the African region has been widely studied and is now less debated. However, their impacts and links to terrestrial water storage (TWS) in general, have not been studied. This study presents the pioneer results of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) of TWS derived from both global reanalysis data (1980-2015) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) (2002-2014) with SST fields. The main issues discussed include, (i) oceanic hot spots that impact on TWS over tropical West Africa (TWA) based on CCA, (ii) long term changes in model and global reanalysis data (soil moisture, TWS, and groundwater) and the influence of climate variability on these hydrological indicators, and (iii) the hydrological characteristics of the Equatorial region of Africa (i.e., the Congo basin) based on GRACE-derived TWS, river discharge, and precipitation. Results of the CCA diagnostics show that El-Niño Southern Oscillation related equatorial Pacific SST fluctuations is a major index of climate variability identified in the main portion of the CCA procedure that indicates a significant association with long term TWS reanalysis data over TWA (r = 0.50, ρ < 0.05). Based on Mann-Kendall's statistics, the study found fairly large long term declines (ρ < 0.05) in TWS and soil moisture (1982 - 2015), mostly over the Congo basin, which coincided with warming of the land surface and the surrounding oceans. Meanwhile, some parts of the Sahel show significant wetting (rainfall, soil moisture, groundwater, and TWS) trends during the same period (1982-2015) and aligns with the ongoing narratives of rainfall recovery in the region. Results of singular spectral analysis and regression confirm that multi-annual changes in the Congo River discharge explained a considerable proportion of variability in GRACE-hydrological signal over the Congo basin (r = 0.86 and R2 = 0.70, ρ < 0.05). Finally, leading

  16. Human impacts of hydrometeorological extremes in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands derived from documentary sources in the 18th-19th centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolák, Lukáš; Brázdil, Rudolf; Valášek, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    The extent of damage caused by hydrometeorological events or extremes (HME) has risen up in the entire world in the last few years. Especially the floods, flash floods, torrential rains and hailstorms are the most typical and one of the most frequent kind of natural disasters in the central Europe. Catastrophes are a part of human history and people were forced to cope with their consequences (e. g. material damage, economical losses, impacts on agriculture and society or losses of human lives). This paper analyses the human impacts of HME in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands (central part of the Czech Republic) on the basis of documentary sources from the 18th-19th centuries. The paper presents various negative impacts of natural disasters on lives and property and subsequent inconveniences of Czech peasants. The preserved archival documents of estates or domains became the primary sources of data (e. g. taxation reliefs, damaged records, reports of afflicted farmers, administrative correspondence etc.). Particularly taxation reliefs relate to taxation system in the Czech lands during the 17th-19th centuries allowing to farmers to ask for tax alleviation when their crops were significantly damaged by any HME. These archival documents are a highly valuable source for the study of human impacts of natural disasters. Devastating consequences of these extremes affected individual farmers much more than the aristocracy. Floods caused inundations of farmer's fields, meadows, houses and farm buildings, washed away the arable land with crops, caused losses of cattle, clogged the land with gravel and mud and destroyed roads, bridges or agricultural equipment. Afflicted fields became worthless and it took them many years to become became fertile again. Crop was also damaged by hailstorms, droughts or late/early frosts. All these events led to lack of food and seeds in the following year and it meant the decrease of living standard, misery and poverty of farmers. Acquired

  17. Computational modeling of spiking neural network with learning rules from STDP and intrinsic plasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiumin; Wang, Wei; Xue, Fangzheng; Song, Yongduan

    2018-02-01

    Recently there has been continuously increasing interest in building up computational models of spiking neural networks (SNN), such as the Liquid State Machine (LSM). The biologically inspired self-organized neural networks with neural plasticity can enhance the capability of computational performance, with the characteristic features of dynamical memory and recurrent connection cycles which distinguish them from the more widely used feedforward neural networks. Despite a variety of computational models for brain-like learning and information processing have been proposed, the modeling of self-organized neural networks with multi-neural plasticity is still an important open challenge. The main difficulties lie in the interplay among different forms of neural plasticity rules and understanding how structures and dynamics of neural networks shape the computational performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to develop the models of LSM with a biologically inspired self-organizing network based on two neural plasticity learning rules. The connectivity among excitatory neurons is adapted by spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) learning; meanwhile, the degrees of neuronal excitability are regulated to maintain a moderate average activity level by another learning rule: intrinsic plasticity (IP). Our study shows that LSM with STDP+IP performs better than LSM with a random SNN or SNN obtained by STDP alone. The noticeable improvement with the proposed method is due to the better reflected competition among different neurons in the developed SNN model, as well as the more effectively encoded and processed relevant dynamic information with its learning and self-organizing mechanism. This result gives insights to the optimization of computational models of spiking neural networks with neural plasticity.

  18. ANALYSIS OF NIGERIAN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    Tests on time homogeneity, showed that the annual rainfall ... lognormal distribution should be adopted for predictions of annual rainfall at Port Harcourt and .... factors for normal probability distribution, ... functions of adjusted skewness.

  19. Use of agent-based modelling in emergency management under a range of flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tagg Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Life Safety Model (LSM was developed some 15 years ago, originally for dam break assessments and for informing reservoir evacuation and emergency plans. Alongside other technological developments, the model has evolved into a very useful agent-based tool, with many applications for a range of hazards and receptor behaviour. HR Wallingford became involved in its use in 2006, and is now responsible for its technical development and commercialisation. Over the past 10 years the model has been applied to a range of flood hazards, including coastal surge, river flood, dam failure and tsunami, and has been verified against historical events. Commercial software licences are being used in Canada, Italy, Malaysia and Australia. A core group of LSM users and analysts has been specifying and delivering a programme of model enhancements. These include improvements to traffic behaviour at intersections, new algorithms for sheltering in high-rise buildings, and the addition of monitoring points to allow detailed analysis of vehicle and pedestrian movement. Following user feedback, the ability of LSM to handle large model ‘worlds’ and hydrodynamic meshes has been improved. Recent developments include new documentation, performance enhancements, better logging of run-time events and bug fixes. This paper describes some of the recent developments and summarises some of the case study applications, including dam failure analysis in Japan and mass evacuation simulation in England.

  20. Numerical Modeling of the Side Flow in Tape Casting of a Non-Newtonian Fluid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jabbari, Masoud; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2013-01-01

    in the tape casting process is modeled numerically with ANSYS FLUENT in combination with an Ostwald-de Waele power law constitutive equation. Based on rheometer experiments, the constants in the Ostwald-de Waele power law are identified for the considered LSM material and applied in the numerical modeling......One of the most common ways used to produce multilayer ceramics (MLC) is tape casting. In this process, the dried tape thickness is of great interest to control the desired products and applications. One of the parameters that influences the final tape thickness is the side flow factor (a) which...... is mostly measured at the end of the process by a volumetric comparison of the tape which flowed outside the casting width to the tape within the casting width. This phenomenon has not been predicted theoretically yet in the literature. In this study, the flow of (La0.85Sr0.15)0.9MnO3 (LSM) slurry...

  1. Decays of open charmed mesons in the extended Linear Sigma Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eshraim Walaa I.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We enlarge the so-called extended linear Sigma model (eLSM by including the charm quark according to the global U(4r × U(4l chiral symmetry. In the eLSM, besides scalar and pseudoscalar mesons, also vector and axial-vector mesons are present. Almost all the parameters of the model were fixed in a previous study of mesons below 2 GeV. In the extension to the four-flavor case, only three additional parameters (all of them related to the bare mass of the charm quark appear.We compute the (OZI dominant strong decays of open charmed mesons. The results are compatible with the experimental data, although the theoretical uncertainties are still large.

  2. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2018-06-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  3. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2017-08-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  4. The low-energy constants of the extended linear sigma model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Divotgey, Florian; Giacosa, Francesco; Kovacs, Peter; Rischke, Dirk H. [Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    The low-energy dynamics of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) is fully determined by the interactions of the (pseudo-) Nambu-Goldstone bosons of spontaneous chiral symmetry breaking, i.e., for two quark flavors, the pions. Pion dynamics is described by the low-energy effective theory of QCD, chiral perturbation theory (ChPT), which is based on the nonlinear realization of chiral symmetry. An alternative description is provided by the Linear Sigma Model, where chiral symmetry is linearly realized. An extended version of this model, the so-called extended Linear Sigma Model (eLSM) was recently developed which incorporates all J{sup P}=0{sup ±}, 1{sup ±} anti qq mesons up to 2 GeV in mass. A fit of the coupling constants of this model to experimentally measured masses and decay widths has a surprisingly good quality. In this talk, it is demonstrated that the low-energy limit of the eLSM, obtained by integrating out all fields which are heavier than the pions, assumes the same form as ChPT. Moreover, the low-energy constants (LECs) of the eLSM agree with those of ChPT.

  5. Improving operational land surface model canopy evapotranspiration in Africa using a direct remote sensing approach

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Marshall, M

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available , latent energy (LE: ET energy equivalent) during the rainy season is the primary regulator after solar forcing of energy balance seasonal variability, the strength of which changes signifi- cantly across land cover types (Ramier et al., 2009). At inter... Table 1. Acronyms and their definitions in order of appearance. Acronym Definition ET Evapotranspiration LE Latent Heat LSM Land Surface Model NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index PET Potential Evapotranspiration AMMA African Monsoon...

  6. Regional drought assessment using a distributed hydrological model coupled with Standardized Runoff Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Shen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Drought assessment is essential for coping with frequent droughts nowadays. Owing to the large spatio-temporal variations in hydrometeorology in most regions in China, it is very necessary to use a physically-based hydrological model to produce rational spatial and temporal distributions of hydro-meteorological variables for drought assessment. In this study, the large-scale distributed hydrological model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC was coupled with a modified standardized runoff index (SRI for drought assessment in the Weihe River basin, northwest China. The result indicates that the coupled model is capable of reasonably reproducing the spatial distribution of drought occurrence. It reflected the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought and improved the physical mechanism of SRI. This model also has potential for drought forecasting, early warning and mitigation, given that accurate meteorological forcing data are available.

  7. Use of MLCM3 Software for Flash Flood Modeling and Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inna Pivovarova

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and timely flash floods forecasting, especially, in ungauged and poorly gauged basins, is one of the most important and challenging problems to be solved by the international hydrological community. In changing climate and variable anthropogenic impact on river basins, as well as due to low density of surface hydrometeorological network, flash flood forecasting based on “traditional” physically based, or conceptual, or statistical hydrological models often becomes inefficient. Unfortunately, most of river basins in Russia are poorly gauged or ungauged; besides, lack of hydrogeological data is quite typical. However, the developing economy and population safety necessitate issuing warnings based on reliable forecasts. For this purpose, a new hydrological model, MLCM3 (Multi-Layer Conceptual Model, 3 rd generation has been developed in the Russian State Hydrometeorological University. The model showed good results in more than 50 tested basins.

  8. Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramarohetra, Johanna; Pohl, Benjamin; Sultan, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments were performed at two sites in Sub-Saharan Africa and by using two crop models to simulate Niger pearl millet and Benin maize yields. We find that the use of the WRF model to downscale ERA-Interim climate data generally reduces the bias in the simulated crop yield, yet this reduction in bias strongly depends on the choices in the model setup. Among the physical parameterizations considered, we show that the choice of the land surface model (LSM) is of primary importance. When there is no coupling with a LSM, or when the LSM is too simplistic, the simulated precipitation and then the simulated yield are null, or respectively very low; therefore, coupling with a LSM is necessary. The convective scheme is the second most influential scheme for yield simulation, followed by the shortwave radiation scheme. The uncertainties related to the internal variability of the WRF model are also significant and reach up to 30% of the simulated yields. These results suggest that regional models need to be used more carefully in order to improve the reliability of impact assessments. (letter)

  9. Impact of model structure and parameterization on Penman-Monteith type evaporation models

    KAUST Repository

    Ershadi, A.; McCabe, Matthew; Evans, J.P.; Wood, E.F.

    2015-01-01

    Overall, the results illustrate the sensitivity of Penman-Monteith type models to model structure, parameterization choice and biome type. A particular challenge in flux estimation relates to developing robust and broadly applicable model formulations. With many choices available for use, providing guidance on the most appropriate scheme to employ is required to advance approaches for routine global scale flux estimates, undertake hydrometeorological assessments or develop hydrological forecasting tools, amongst many other applications. In such cases, a multi-model ensemble or biome-specific tiled evaporation product may be an appropriate solution, given the inherent variability in model and parameterization choice that is observed within single product estimates.

  10. Forward-looking Assimilation of MODIS-derived Snow Covered Area into a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Rodell, Matthew

    2008-01-01

    Snow cover over land has a significant impact on the surface radiation budget, turbulent energy fluxes to the atmosphere, and local hydrological fluxes. For this reason, inaccuracies in the representation of snow covered area (SCA) within a land surface model (LSM) can lead to substantial errors in both offline and coupled simulations. Data assimilation algorithms have the potential to address this problem. However, the assimilation of SCA observations is complicated by an information deficit in the observation SCA indicates only the presence or absence of snow, and not snow volume and by the fact that assimilated SCA observations can introduce inconsistencies with atmospheric forcing data, leading to non-physical artifacts in the local water balance. In this paper we present a novel assimilation algorithm that introduces MODIS SCA observations to the Noah LSM in global, uncoupled simulations. The algorithm utilizes observations from up to 72 hours ahead of the model simulation in order to correct against emerging errors in the simulation of snow cover while preserving the local hydrologic balance. This is accomplished by using future snow observations to adjust air temperature and, when necessary, precipitation within the LSM. In global, offline integrations, this new assimilation algorithm provided improved simulation of SCA and snow water equivalent relative to open loop integrations and integrations that used an earlier SCA assimilation algorithm. These improvements, in turn, influenced the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes both during the snow season and, in some regions, on into the following spring.

  11. a{sub 0}(980) as a dynamically generated resonance in the extended Linear Sigma Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolkanowski-Gans, Thomas; Giacosa, Francesco [Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    We study basic properties of scalar hadronic resonances within the so-called extended linear sigma model (eLSM), which is an effective model of QCD based on chiral symmetry and dilatation invariance. In particular, we focus on the mass and decay width of the isovector state a{sub 0}(1450) and perform a numerical study of the propagator pole(s) on the unphysical Riemann sheets. Here, the a{sub 0}(1450) is understood as a seed state explicitly included in the eLSM - this is in fact not true for the corresponding resonance below 1 GeV, the a{sub 0}(980), which is sometimes interpreted as a kaonic (i.e., dynamically generated) bound state. In our work we want to clarify if the yet not included a{sub 0}(980) can be found as a propagator pole generated by hadronic loop contributions. From such an investigation one could learn more about the general dependence of the eLSM - and effective field models in general - on strongly coupled hadronic intermediate states, possibly giving new insight into the low-energy regime, scalar resonances and both its theoretical description and physical interpretation.

  12. What model resolution is required in climatological downscaling over complex terrain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Samra, Renalda; Bou-Zeid, Elie; El-Fadel, Mutasem

    2018-05-01

    This study presents results from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model applied for climatological downscaling simulations over highly complex terrain along the Eastern Mediterranean. We sequentially downscale general circulation model results, for a mild and wet year (2003) and a hot and dry year (2010), to three local horizontal resolutions of 9, 3 and 1 km. Simulated near-surface hydrometeorological variables are compared at different time scales against data from an observational network over the study area comprising rain gauges, anemometers, and thermometers. The overall performance of WRF at 1 and 3 km horizontal resolution was satisfactory, with significant improvement over the 9 km downscaling simulation. The total yearly precipitation from WRF's 1 km and 3 km domains exhibited quantitative measure of the potential errors for various hydrometeorological variables.

  13. Performance Tests of Snow-Related Variables Over the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayas Using a New Version of NASA GEOS-5 Land Surface Model that Includes the Snow Darkening Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasunari, Tppei J.; Lau, K.-U.; Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, Max; Mahanama, Sarith; Dasilva, Arlindo M.; Colarco, Peter R.

    2011-01-01

    The snow darkening effect, i.e. the reduction of snow albedo, is caused by absorption of solar radiation by absorbing aerosols (dust, black carbon, and organic carbon) deposited on the snow surface. This process is probably important over Himalayan and Tibetan glaciers due to the transport of highly polluted Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). This effect has been incorporated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric transport model. The Catchment land surface model (LSM) used in GEOS-5 considers 3 snow layers. Code was developed to track the mass concentration of aerosols in the three layers, taking into account such processes as the flushing of the compounds as liquid water percolates through the snowpack. In GEOS-5, aerosol emissions, transports, and depositions are well simulated in the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GO CART) module; we recently made the connection between GOCART and the GEOS-5 system fitted with the revised LSM. Preliminary simulations were performed with this new system in "replay" mode (i.e., with atmospheric dynamics guided by reanalysis) at 2x2.5 degree horizontal resolution, covering the period 1 November 2005 - 31 December 2009; we consider the final three years of simulation here. The three simulations used the following variants of the LSM: (1) the original Catchment LSM with a fixed fresh snowfall density of 150 kg m-3 ; (2) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code, used here without aerosol deposition but with changes in density formulation and melting water effect on snow specific surface area, (3) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code as same as (2) but with fixed aerosol deposition rates (computed from GOCART values averaged over the Tibetan Plateau domain [Ion.: 60-120E; lat.: 20-50N] during March-May 2008) applied to all grid points at every time step. For (2) and (3), the same setting on the fresh snowfall density as in (1

  14. Use of MLCM3 Software for Flash Flood Modeling and Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Inna Pivovarova; Daria Sokolova; Artur Batyrov; Vadim Kuzmin; Ngoc Anh Tran; DinhKha Dang; Kirill V. Shemanaev

    2018-01-01

    Accurate and timely flash floods forecasting, especially, in ungauged and poorly gauged basins, is one of the most important and challenging problems to be solved by the international hydrological community. In changing climate and variable anthropogenic impact on river basins, as well as due to low density of surface hydrometeorological network, flash flood forecasting based on “traditional” physically based, or conceptual, or statistical hydrological models often becomes inefficient. Unfort...

  15. Free vibration analysis of a cracked shear deformable beam on a two-parameter elastic foundation using a lattice spring model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attar, M.; Karrech, A.; Regenauer-Lieb, K.

    2014-05-01

    The free vibration of a shear deformable beam with multiple open edge cracks is studied using a lattice spring model (LSM). The beam is supported by a so-called two-parameter elastic foundation, where normal and shear foundation stiffnesses are considered. Through application of Timoshenko beam theory, the effects of transverse shear deformation and rotary inertia are taken into account. In the LSM, the beam is discretised into a one-dimensional assembly of segments interacting via rotational and shear springs. These springs represent the flexural and shear stiffnesses of the beam. The supporting action of the elastic foundation is described also by means of normal and shear springs acting on the centres of the segments. The relationship between stiffnesses of the springs and the elastic properties of the one-dimensional structure are identified by comparing the homogenised equations of motion of the discrete system and Timoshenko beam theory.

  16. Atomistic Modeling of Cation Diffusion in Transition Metal Perovskites La1-xSrxMnO3+/-δfor Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Cathodes Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yueh-Lin; Duan, Yuhua; Morgan, Dane; Sorescu, Dan; Abernathy, Harry

    Cation diffusion in La1-xSrxMnO3+/-δ (LSM) and in related perovskite materials play an important role in controlling long term performance and stability of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFCs) cathodes. Due to sluggish rates of cation diffusion and complex coupling between defect chemistry and cation diffusion pathways, currently there is still lack of quantitative theoretical model predictions on cation diffusivity vs. T and P(O2) to describe experimental cation tracer diffusivities. In this work, based on ab initio modeling of LSM defect chemistry and migration barriers of the possible cation diffusion pathways, we assess the rates of A-site and B-site cation diffusion in a wide range of T and P(O2) at x =0.0 and 0.2 for SOFC applications. We demonstrate the active cation diffusion pathways in LSM involve cation defect clusters as cation transport carriers, where reduction in the cation migration barriers, which are governed by the steric effect associated with the metal-oxygen cage in the perovskite lattice, is much greater than the penalty of repulsive interaction in the A-site and B-site cation vacancy clusters, leading to higher cation diffusion rates as compared to those of single cation vacancy hopping mechanisms. The predicted Mn and La/Sr cation self-diffusion coefficients of LSM at at x =0.0 and 0.2 along with their 1/T and P(O2) dependences, are in good agreement with the experimental tracer diffusion coefficients.

  17. Verification of land-atmosphere coupling in forecast models, reanalyses and land surface models using flux site observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirmeyer, Paul A; Chen, Liang; Wu, Jiexia; Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua; Cash, Benjamin A; Bosilovich, Michael G; Mahanama, Sarith; Koster, Randal D; Santanello, Joseph A; Ek, Michael B; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Dutra, Emanuel; Lawrence, D M

    2018-02-01

    We confront four model systems in three configurations (LSM, LSM+GCM, and reanalysis) with global flux tower observations to validate states, surface fluxes, and coupling indices between land and atmosphere. Models clearly under-represent the feedback of surface fluxes on boundary layer properties (the atmospheric leg of land-atmosphere coupling), and may over-represent the connection between soil moisture and surface fluxes (the terrestrial leg). Models generally under-represent spatial and temporal variability relative to observations, which is at least partially an artifact of the differences in spatial scale between model grid boxes and flux tower footprints. All models bias high in near-surface humidity and downward shortwave radiation, struggle to represent precipitation accurately, and show serious problems in reproducing surface albedos. These errors create challenges for models to partition surface energy properly and errors are traceable through the surface energy and water cycles. The spatial distribution of the amplitude and phase of annual cycles (first harmonic) are generally well reproduced, but the biases in means tend to reflect in these amplitudes. Interannual variability is also a challenge for models to reproduce. Our analysis illuminates targets for coupled land-atmosphere model development, as well as the value of long-term globally-distributed observational monitoring.

  18. Potential and Challenges of Low-Cost and High-Tech Crowd-sensing Approaches in Hydrometeorology for Better Water Resources Management - Insights and Learnings from the Global iMoMo Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegfried, Tobias

    2016-04-01

    In developing and transition countries and despite significant global investments in hydrometeorology, data on water remain scarce/fragmented. One key reason is that traditional sensing in hydrology, hydro- and agro-meteorology does not scale because of high investment costs and difficult maintenance of traditional technology, esp. in remote and/or poor regions. Even where there are data, these are often difficult to access and interpret for local stakeholders due outdated data transmission and the lack of access to modern tools for data management/analysis/synthesis and exchange. In recent years, there have been substantial technology developments in environmental sensing and mobile communication technology that enable the application and deployment of affordable and scalable high-tech solutions for better water monitoring at different scales (local to transboundary levels). The WMO is acknowledging and promoting the potential for application of these technologies. One key aspect is to anchor these technologies in local communities that perform crowd-sensing tasks on a regular basis. The merits as well as challenges (including introduction of human factor, less accuracy as compared to traditional sensing, intermittency of data, …) of such approaches will be discussed in the context of the WMO-led Global iMoMo Initiative and its numerous activities on the ground in Eastern and Southern Africa as well as in Central Asia.

  19. Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

    2014-06-01

    Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input

  20. The use of radar in hydrological modeling in the Czech Republic – case studies of flash floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Šálek

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Flash flood induced by severe convection is the hydrometeorological phenomenon that is very difficult to forecast. However, the implementation of radar measurements, especially radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE and/or radar-based quantitative Precipitation Nowcast (QPN can improve this situation. If the radar is able to capture the development of severe convection and can produce reasonably accurate QPE in short time intervals (e.g. 10 min, then it can be used also with hydrological model. A hydrological model named Hydrog was used for investigation of simulation and possible forecasts of two flash floods that took place in the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2003. The precipitation input consisted of mean-field-bias-adjusted or original radar 10-min estimates along with quantitative precipitation nowcasts up to 2 h based on COTREC method (extrapolation. Taking into account all the limited predictability of the severe convection development and the errors of the radar-based precipitation estimates, the aim of the simulations was to find out to what extend the hydrometeorological prediction system, specifically tuned for these events, was able to forecast a the flash floods. As assumed, the hydrometeorological simulations of the streamflow forecasts lagged behind the actual development but there is still some potential for successful warning, especially for areas where the flood hits lately.

  1. Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of hydrometeorological extremes over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, Jason B.; Hoell. Andrew,; Funk, Chris; Robertson, Franklin R.; Kirtmann, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    The skill of North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts in East Africa (EA), which encompasses one of the most food and water insecure areas of the world, is evaluated using deterministic, categorical, and probabilistic evaluation methods. The skill is estimated for all three primary growing seasons: March–May (MAM), July–September (JAS), and October–December (OND). It is found that the precipitation forecast skill in this region is generally limited and statistically significant over only a small part of the domain. In the case of MAM (JAS) [OND] season it exceeds the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of equatorial EA (Northern Ethiopia) [equatorial EA] for up to 2 (5) [5] months lead. Temperature forecast skill is generally much higher than precipitation forecast skill (in terms of deterministic and probabilistic skill scores) and statistically significant over a majority of the region. Over the region as a whole, temperature forecasts also exhibit greater reliability than the precipitation forecasts. The NMME ensemble forecasts are found to be more skillful and reliable than the forecast from any individual model. The results also demonstrate that for some seasons (e.g. JAS), the predictability of precipitation signals varies and is higher during certain climate events (e.g. ENSO). Finally, potential room for improvement in forecast skill is identified in some models by comparing homogeneous predictability in individual NMME models with their respective forecast skill.

  2. Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

    2012-12-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

  3. A critical assessment of the JULES land surface model hydrology for humid tropical environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Z.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Lavado, W.; Guyot, J. L.

    2013-03-01

    Global land surface models (LSMs) such as the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are originally developed to provide surface boundary conditions for climate models. They are increasingly used for hydrological simulation, for instance to simulate the impacts of land use changes and other perturbations on the water cycle. This study investigates how well such models represent the major hydrological fluxes at the relevant spatial and temporal scales - an important question for reliable model applications in poorly understood, data-scarce environments. The JULES-LSM is implemented in a 360 000 km2 humid tropical mountain basin of the Peruvian Andes-Amazon at 12-km grid resolution, forced with daily satellite and climate reanalysis data. The simulations are evaluated using conventional discharge-based evaluation methods, and by further comparing the magnitude and internal variability of the basin surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration, throughfall, and surface and subsurface runoff of the model with those observed in similar environments elsewhere. We find reasonably positive model efficiencies and high correlations between the simulated and observed streamflows, but high root-mean-square errors affecting the performance in smaller, upper sub-basins. We attribute this to errors in the water balance and JULES-LSM's inability to model baseflow. We also found a tendency to under-represent the high evapotranspiration rates of the region. We conclude that strategies to improve the representation of tropical systems to be (1) addressing errors in the forcing and (2) incorporating local wetland and regional floodplain in the subsurface representation.

  4. A non-linear and stochastic response surface method for Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in soil moisture simulation from a land surface model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Hossain

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a simple and efficient scheme for Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in soil moisture simulation by a Land Surface Model (LSM. The scheme is assessed within a Monte Carlo (MC simulation framework based on the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE methodology. A primary limitation of using the GLUE method is the prohibitive computational burden imposed by uniform random sampling of the model's parameter distributions. Sampling is improved in the proposed scheme by stochastic modeling of the parameters' response surface that recognizes the non-linear deterministic behavior between soil moisture and land surface parameters. Uncertainty in soil moisture simulation (model output is approximated through a Hermite polynomial chaos expansion of normal random variables that represent the model's parameter (model input uncertainty. The unknown coefficients of the polynomial are calculated using limited number of model simulation runs. The calibrated polynomial is then used as a fast-running proxy to the slower-running LSM to predict the degree of representativeness of a randomly sampled model parameter set. An evaluation of the scheme's efficiency in sampling is made through comparison with the fully random MC sampling (the norm for GLUE and the nearest-neighborhood sampling technique. The scheme was able to reduce computational burden of random MC sampling for GLUE in the ranges of 10%-70%. The scheme was also found to be about 10% more efficient than the nearest-neighborhood sampling method in predicting a sampled parameter set's degree of representativeness. The GLUE based on the proposed sampling scheme did not alter the essential features of the uncertainty structure in soil moisture simulation. The scheme can potentially make GLUE uncertainty estimation for any LSM more efficient as it does not impose any additional structural or distributional assumptions.

  5. Approximating a retarded-advanced differential equation that models human phonation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodoro, M. Filomena

    2017-11-01

    In [1, 2, 3] we have got the numerical solution of a linear mixed type functional differential equation (MTFDE) introduced initially in [4], considering the autonomous and non-autonomous case by collocation, least squares and finite element methods considering B-splines basis set. The present work introduces a numerical scheme using least squares method (LSM) and Gaussian basis functions to solve numerically a nonlinear mixed type equation with symmetric delay and advance which models human phonation. The preliminary results are promising. We obtain an accuracy comparable with the previous results.

  6. Numerical Modeling of the Flow of a Power Law Ceramic Slurry in the Tape Casting Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jabbari, Masoud; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2012-01-01

    Multilayer ceramics and their application have increased recently. One of the most common ways used to produce these products is tape casting. In this process the wet tape thickness is one of the most determining parameters affecting the final properties of the product and it is therefore of great...... interest to be able to control it. In the present work the flow of La0.85Sr0.15MnO3 (LSM) material in the doctor blade region is modelled numerically with ANSYS Fluent in combination with an Ostwald power law constitutive equation. Based on rheometer experiments the constants in the Ostwald power law...

  7. Elaboration, characterisation and modelling of screen-printed La0.8Sr0.2MnO{sub 3} cathodes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell; Elaboration, caracterisation et modelisation de cathode serigraphiee, La0.8Sr0.2MnO3, pour pile a combustible SOFC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caillol, N.

    2006-03-15

    The properties of LSM screen-printed cathodes on YSZ electrolytes and the modelling of oxygen reduction have been studied. A bibliographic review of published works on LSM and LSM/YSZ interface reveals the lack of consensus over the mechanism proposed between oxygen and LSM. The different theoretic models possible and their associated kinetic laws are presented to serve as the basis for the kinetic modelling. Microstructural characterizations proved the adaptability of the screen-printing technique for making electrodes. The layers are stable in time and well reproducible. Their microstructure is homogenous and regular with a porosity of 0.6. Physico-chemical characterizations were carried out. Infra-red spectrometry analysis and thermo-programmed desorption have shown the existence of different kinds of oxygen-adsorbed species on LSM powder. A calorimetric study has revealed a change in the quantity of heat released during oxygen adsorption as a function of temperature. By XPS analysis on screen-printed layers, important strontium segregation was observed depending on pressure, temperature and polarisation conditions. From electrochemical characterizations made by impedance spectroscopy, three resistive contributions have been identified. Only the low frequency contribution, which is the only pressure sensitive contribution, was considered to correspond to an electrode phenomenon. Following a methodical study of the different modelling hypothesis, a mechanism for the cathodic reaction was obtained. The proposed model is complex. It is composed of three conductivity paths running in parallel (two surface paths and one bulk path). These paths involve two different oxygen species and their preponderance depends on pressure, temperature and polarisation conditions. A study of water vapour influence completes this work, to understand its impact on the cathode electrical performance. The benefits brought by water vapour are not linked to a direct catalytic effect, as it

  8. Landslide susceptibility modeling applying machine learning methods: A case study from Longju in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Chao; Yin, Kunlong; Cao, Ying; Ahmed, Bayes; Li, Yuanyao; Catani, Filippo; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza

    2018-03-01

    Landslide is a common natural hazard and responsible for extensive damage and losses in mountainous areas. In this study, Longju in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China was taken as a case study for landslide susceptibility assessment in order to develop effective risk prevention and mitigation strategies. To begin, 202 landslides were identified, including 95 colluvial landslides and 107 rockfalls. Twelve landslide causal factor maps were prepared initially, and the relationship between these factors and each landslide type was analyzed using the information value model. Later, the unimportant factors were selected and eliminated using the information gain ratio technique. The landslide locations were randomly divided into two groups: 70% for training and 30% for verifying. Two machine learning models: the support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN), and a multivariate statistical model: the logistic regression (LR), were applied for landslide susceptibility modeling (LSM) for each type. The LSM index maps, obtained from combining the assessment results of the two landslide types, were classified into five levels. The performance of the LSMs was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics curve and Friedman test. Results show that the elimination of noise-generating factors and the separated modeling of each landslide type have significantly increased the prediction accuracy. The machine learning models outperformed the multivariate statistical model and SVM model was found ideal for the case study area.

  9. 2-way coupling the hydrological land surface model PROMET with the regional climate model MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most land surface hydrological models (LSHMs consider land surface processes (e.g. soil–plant–atmosphere interactions, lateral water flows, snow and ice in a spatially detailed manner. The atmosphere is considered as exogenous driver, neglecting feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs generally simulate land surface processes through coarse descriptions and spatial scales but include land–atmosphere interactions. What is the impact of the differently applied model physics and spatial resolution of LSHMs on the performance of RCMs? What feedback effects are induced by different land surface models? This study analyses the impact of replacing the land surface module (LSM within an RCM with a high resolution LSHM. A 2-way coupling approach was applied using the LSHM PROMET (1 × 1 km2 and the atmospheric part of the RCM MM5 (45 × 45 km2. The scaling interface SCALMET is used for down- and upscaling the linear and non-linear fluxes between the model scales. The change in the atmospheric response by MM5 using the LSHM is analysed, and its quality is compared to observations of temperature and precipitation for a 4 yr period from 1996 to 1999 for the Upper Danube catchment. By substituting the Noah-LSM with PROMET, simulated non-bias-corrected near-surface air temperature improves for annual, monthly and daily courses when compared to measurements from 277 meteorological weather stations within the Upper Danube catchment. The mean annual bias was improved from −0.85 to −0.13 K. In particular, the improved afternoon heating from May to September is caused by increased sensible heat flux and decreased latent heat flux as well as more incoming solar radiation in the fully coupled PROMET/MM5 in comparison to the NOAH/MM5 simulation. Triggered by the LSM replacement, precipitation overall is reduced; however simulated precipitation amounts are still of high uncertainty, both

  10. Performance tests of snow-related variables over the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayas using a new version of NASA GEOS-5 land surface model that includes the snow darkening effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasunari, T. J.; Lau, W. K.; Koster, R. D.; Suarez, M.; Mahanama, S. P.; da Silva, A.; Colarco, P. R.

    2011-12-01

    The snow darkening effect, i.e. the reduction of snow albedo, is caused by absorption of solar radiation by absorbing aerosols (dust, black carbon, and organic carbon) deposited on the snow surface. This process is probably important over Himalayan and Tibetan glaciers due to the transport of highly polluted Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). This effect has been incorporated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric transport model. The Catchment land surface model (LSM) used in GEOS-5 considers 3 snow layers. Code was developed to track the mass concentration of aerosols in the three layers, taking into account such processes as the flushing of the compounds as liquid water percolates through the snowpack. In GEOS-5, aerosol emissions, transports, and depositions are well simulated in the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) module; we recently made the connection between GOCART and the GEOS-5 system fitted with the revised LSM. Preliminary simulations were performed with this new system in "replay" mode (i.e., with atmospheric dynamics guided by reanalysis) at 2x2.5 degree horizontal resolution, covering the period 1 November 2005 - 31 December 2009; we consider the final three years of simulation here. The three simulations used the following variants of the LSM: (1) the original Catchment LSM with a fixed fresh snowfall density of 150 kg m-3; (2) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code, used here without aerosol deposition but with changes in density formulation and melting water effect on snow specific surface area, (3) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code as same as (2) but with fixed aerosol deposition rates (computed from GOCART values averaged over the Tibetan Plateau domain [lon.: 60-120E; lat.: 20-50N] during March-May 2008) applied to all grid points at every time step. For (2) and (3), the same setting on the fresh snowfall density as in (1) was

  11. Integrating a Linear Signal Model with Groundwater and Rainfall time-series on the Characteristic Identification of Groundwater Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Wen; Wang, Yetmen; Chang, Liang-Cheng

    2017-04-01

    Groundwater resources play a vital role on regional supply. To avoid irreversible environmental impact such as land subsidence, the characteristic identification of groundwater system is crucial before sustainable management of groundwater resource. This study proposes a signal process approach to identify the character of groundwater systems based on long-time hydrologic observations include groundwater level and rainfall. The study process contains two steps. First, a linear signal model (LSM) is constructed and calibrated to simulate the variation of underground hydrology based on the time series of groundwater levels and rainfall. The mass balance equation of the proposed LSM contains three major terms contain net rate of horizontal exchange, rate of rainfall recharge and rate of pumpage and four parameters are required to calibrate. Because reliable records of pumpage is rare, the time-variant groundwater amplitudes of daily frequency (P ) calculated by STFT are assumed as linear indicators of puamage instead of pumpage records. Time series obtained from 39 observation wells and 50 rainfall stations in and around the study area, Pintung Plain, are paired for model construction. Second, the well-calibrated parameters of the linear signal model can be used to interpret the characteristic of groundwater system. For example, the rainfall recharge coefficient (γ) means the transform ratio between rainfall intention and groundwater level raise. The area around the observation well with higher γ means that the saturated zone here is easily affected by rainfall events and the material of unsaturated zone might be gravel or coarse sand with high infiltration ratio. Considering the spatial distribution of γ, the values of γ decrease from the upstream to the downstream of major rivers and also are correlated to the spatial distribution of grain size of surface soil. Via the time-series of groundwater levels and rainfall, the well-calibrated parameters of LSM have

  12. Analysis of Nigerian Hydrometeorological Data | Dike | Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Missing records were determined by the mass curve analysis for rainfall and regression analysis for runoff involving runoff data at neighbouring site. Tests on time homogeneity, showed that the annual rainfall records at Port Harcourt, Enugu and Lokoja were stationary and random, the annual runoff records of River Niger at ...

  13. Advances in land modeling of KIAPS based on the Noah Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Myung-Seo; Baek, Sunghye; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Cho, Kyoungmi

    2017-08-01

    As of 2013, the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) version 2.7.1 was implemented in a new global model being developed at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). This land surface scheme is further refined in two aspects, by adding new physical processes and by updating surface input parameters. Thus, the treatment of glacier land, sea ice, and snow cover are addressed more realistically. Inconsistencies in the amount of absorbed solar flux at ground level by the land surface and radiative processes are rectified. In addition, new parameters are available by using 1-km land cover data, which had usually not been possible at a global scale. Land surface albedo/emissivity climatology is newly created using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellitebased data and adjusted parameterization. These updates have been applied to the KIAPS-developed model and generally provide a positive impact on near-surface weather forecasting.

  14. Modeling degradation in SOEC impedance spectra

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Søren Højgaard; Hauch, Anne; Knibbe, Ruth

    2013-01-01

    Solid oxide cell (SOC) performance is limited by various processes. One way to investigate these processes is by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. In order to quantify and characterize the processes, an equivalent circuit can be used to model the SOC impedance spectra (IS). Unfortunately......, the optimal equivalent circuit is often unknown and to complicate matters further, several processes contribute to the SOC impedance - making detailed process characterization difficult. In this work we analyze and model a series of IS measured during steam electrolysis operation of an SOC. During testing......, degradation is only observed in the Ni/YSZ electrode and not in the electrolyte or the LSM/YSZ electrode. A batch fit of the differences between the IS shows that a modified Gerischer element provides a better fit to the Ni/YSZ electrode impedance than the frequently used RQ element - albeit neither...

  15. Doppler broadening measurements in FRX-C/LSM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, M.H.; Chrien, R.E.

    1989-01-01

    Measurements obtained in situ during field reversed configuration (FRC) formation show that the Doppler broadening ion temperature T CV is larger by a factor of two or more than the ion temperature T i derived from pressure balance and Thomson scattering. After a time comparable to an ion-ion equilibrium time, T CV and T i come into agreement with each other. An exception to this picture occurs in the lowest fill pressure condition (2 mtorr), for which T CV > T i is maintained throughout the FRC lifetime. Earlier Doppler broadening measurements in FRX-B and FRX-C also showed persistent, anomalously high T CV at low fill pressure. The initially high values of T CV are probably caused by convective motion generated by the radial implosion. The low fill pressure results suggest an enhanced ohmic power input to the carbon ions. 7 refs., 3 figs

  16. CFD Simulation of Vortex Induced Vibration for FRP Composite Riser with Different Modeling Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunguang Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Steel risers are widely used in offshore oil and gas industry. However, the production capacity and depths are limited due to their extreme weight and poor fatigue and corrosion resistance. Nowadays, it is confirmed that fiber reinforced polymer (FRP composite risers have apparent advantages over steel risers. However, the study of vortex induced vibration (VIV for composite risers is rarely involved. Three different risers (one steel riser and two composite risers were compared for their VIV characteristics. The effects of 2D and 3D models and fluid–structure interaction (FSI were considered. The models of composite risers are established by effective modulus method (EMM and layered-structure method (LSM. It is found that 2D model are only suitable for ideal condition, while, for real situation, 3D model with FSI has to be considered. The results show that the displacements of the FRP composite risers are significantly larger than those of the steel riser, while the stresses are reversed. In addition, the distributions of the displacements and stresses depend on the geometries, material properties, top-tension force, constraints, etc. In addition, it is obvious that EMM are suitable to study the global working condition while LSM can be utilized to obtain the results in every single composite layer.

  17. Impact of Soil Moisture Assimilation on Land Surface Model Spin-Up and Coupled LandAtmosphere Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Lawston, P.

    2016-01-01

    Advances in satellite monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle have led to a concerted effort to assimilate soil moisture observations from various platforms into offline land surface models (LSMs). One principal but still open question is that of the ability of land data assimilation (LDA) to improve LSM initial conditions for coupled short-term weather prediction. In this study, the impact of assimilating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals on coupled WRF Model forecasts is examined during the summers of dry (2006) and wet (2007) surface conditions in the southern Great Plains. LDA is carried out using NASAs Land Information System (LIS) and the Noah LSM through an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach. The impacts of LDA on the 1) soil moisture and soil temperature initial conditions for WRF, 2) land-atmosphere coupling characteristics, and 3) ambient weather of the coupled LIS-WRF simulations are then assessed. Results show that impacts of soil moisture LDA during the spin-up can significantly modify LSM states and fluxes, depending on regime and season. Results also indicate that the use of seasonal cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) is more advantageous compared to the traditional annual CDF bias correction strategies. LDA performs consistently regardless of atmospheric forcing applied, with greater improvements seen when using coarser, global forcing products. Downstream impacts on coupled simulations vary according to the strength of the LDA impact at the initialization, where significant modifications to the soil moisture flux- PBL-ambient weather process chain are observed. Overall, this study demonstrates potential for future, higher-resolution soil moisture assimilation applications in weather and climate research.

  18. A tribo-mechanical analysis of PVA-based building-blocks for implementation in a 2-layered skin model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales Hurtado, M; de Vries, E G; Zeng, X; van der Heide, E

    2016-09-01

    Poly(vinyl) alcohol hydrogel (PVA) is a well-known polymer widely used in the medical field due to its biocompatibility properties and easy manufacturing. In this work, the tribo-mechanical properties of PVA-based blocks are studied to evaluate their suitability as a part of a structure simulating the length scale dependence of human skin. Thus, blocks of pure PVA and PVA mixed with Cellulose (PVA-Cel) were synthesised via freezing/thawing cycles and their mechanical properties were determined by Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA) and creep tests. The dynamic tests addressed to elastic moduli between 38 and 50kPa for the PVA and PVA-Cel, respectively. The fitting of the creep compliance tests in the SLS model confirmed the viscoelastic behaviour of the samples with retardation times of 23 and 16 seconds for the PVA and PVA-Cel, respectively. Micro indentation tests were also achieved and the results indicated elastic moduli in the same range of the dynamic tests. Specifically, values between 45-55 and 56-81kPa were obtained for the PVA and PVA-Cel samples, respectively. The tribological results indicated values of 0.55 at low forces for the PVA decreasing to 0.13 at higher forces. The PVA-Cel blocks showed lower friction even at low forces with values between 0.2 and 0.07. The implementation of these building blocks in the design of a 2-layered skin model (2LSM) is also presented in this work. The 2LSM was stamped with four different textures and their surface properties were evaluated. The hydration of the 2LSM was also evaluated with a corneometer and the results indicated a gradient of hydration comparable to the human skin. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel F.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

    2017-05-01

    The land surface forms an essential part of the climate system. It interacts with the atmosphere through the exchange of water and energy and hence influences weather and climate, as well as their predictability. Correspondingly, the land surface model (LSM) is an essential part of any weather forecasting system. LSMs rely on partly poorly constrained parameters, due to sparse land surface observations. With the use of newly available land surface temperature observations, we show in this study that novel satellite-derived datasets help improve LSM configuration, and hence can contribute to improved weather predictability. We use the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) and validate it comprehensively against an array of Earth observation reference datasets, including the new land surface temperature product. This reveals satisfactory model performance in terms of hydrology but poor performance in terms of land surface temperature. This is due to inconsistencies of process representations in the model as identified from an analysis of perturbed parameter simulations. We show that HTESSEL can be more robustly calibrated with multiple instead of single reference datasets as this mitigates the impact of the structural inconsistencies. Finally, performing coupled global weather forecasts, we find that a more robust calibration of HTESSEL also contributes to improved weather forecast skills. In summary, new satellite-based Earth observations are shown to enhance the multi-dataset calibration of LSMs, thereby improving the representation of insufficiently captured processes, advancing weather predictability, and understanding of climate system feedbacks.

  20. Life prediction of OLED for constant-stress accelerated degradation tests using luminance decaying model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Jianping, E-mail: jpzhanglzu@163.com [College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090 (China); Li, Wenbin [College of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090 (China); Cheng, Guoliang; Chen, Xiao [Shanghai Tianyi Electric Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201611 (China); Wu, Helen [School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Western Sydney, Sydney 2751 (Australia); Herman Shen, M.-H. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, The Ohio State University, OH 43210 (United States)

    2014-10-15

    In order to acquire the life information of organic light emitting diode (OLED), three groups of constant stress accelerated degradation tests are performed to obtain the luminance decaying data of samples under the condition that the luminance and the current are respectively selected as the indicator of performance degradation and the test stress. Weibull function is applied to describe the relationship between luminance decaying and time, least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate the shape parameter and scale parameter, and the life prediction of OLED is achieved. The numerical results indicate that the accelerated degradation test and the luminance decaying model reveal the luminance decaying law of OLED. The luminance decaying formula fits the test data very well, and the average error of fitting value compared with the test data is small. Furthermore, the accuracy of the OLED life predicted by luminance decaying model is high, which enable rapid estimation of OLED life and provide significant guidelines to help engineers make decisions in design and manufacturing strategy from the aspect of reliability life. - Highlights: • We gain luminance decaying data by accelerated degradation tests on OLED. • The luminance decaying model objectively reveals the decaying law of OLED luminance. • The least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate Weibull parameters. • The plan designed for accelerated degradation tests proves to be feasible. • The accuracy of the OLED life and the luminance decaying fitting formula is high.

  1. Life prediction of OLED for constant-stress accelerated degradation tests using luminance decaying model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jianping; Li, Wenbin; Cheng, Guoliang; Chen, Xiao; Wu, Helen; Herman Shen, M.-H.

    2014-01-01

    In order to acquire the life information of organic light emitting diode (OLED), three groups of constant stress accelerated degradation tests are performed to obtain the luminance decaying data of samples under the condition that the luminance and the current are respectively selected as the indicator of performance degradation and the test stress. Weibull function is applied to describe the relationship between luminance decaying and time, least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate the shape parameter and scale parameter, and the life prediction of OLED is achieved. The numerical results indicate that the accelerated degradation test and the luminance decaying model reveal the luminance decaying law of OLED. The luminance decaying formula fits the test data very well, and the average error of fitting value compared with the test data is small. Furthermore, the accuracy of the OLED life predicted by luminance decaying model is high, which enable rapid estimation of OLED life and provide significant guidelines to help engineers make decisions in design and manufacturing strategy from the aspect of reliability life. - Highlights: • We gain luminance decaying data by accelerated degradation tests on OLED. • The luminance decaying model objectively reveals the decaying law of OLED luminance. • The least square method (LSM) is employed to calculate Weibull parameters. • The plan designed for accelerated degradation tests proves to be feasible. • The accuracy of the OLED life and the luminance decaying fitting formula is high

  2. Using Flux Site Observations to Calibrate Root System Architecture Stencils for Water Uptake of Plant Functional Types in Land Surface Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Root system architecture (RSA) can significantly affect plant access to water, total transpiration, as well as its partitioning by soil depth, with implications for surface heat, water, and carbon budgets. Despite recent advances in land surface model (LSM) descriptions of plant hydraulics, RSA has not been included because of its three-dimensional complexity, which makes RSA modelling generally too computationally costly. This work builds upon the recently introduced "RSA stencil," a process-based 1D layered model that captures the dynamic shifts in water potential gradients of 3D RSA in response to heterogeneous soil moisture profiles. In validations using root systems calibrated to the rooting profiles of four plant functional types (PFT) of the Community Land Model, the RSA stencil predicts plant water potentials within 2% of the outputs of full 3D models, despite its trivial computational cost. In transient simulations, the RSA stencil yields improved predictions of water uptake and soil moisture profiles compared to a 1D model based on root fraction alone. Here I show how the RSA stencil can be calibrated to time-series observations of soil moisture and transpiration to yield a water uptake PFT definition for use in terrestrial models. This model-data integration exercise aims to improve LSM predictions of soil moisture dynamics and, under water-limiting conditions, surface fluxes. These improvements can be expected to significantly impact predictions of downstream variables, including surface fluxes, climate-vegetation feedbacks and soil nutrient cycling.

  3. The role of the antecedent soil moisture condition on the distributed hydrologic modelling of the Toce alpine basin floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, G.; Montaldo, N.; Mancini, M.; Rosso, R.

    2003-04-01

    Event-based hydrologic models need the antecedent soil moisture condition, as critical boundary initial condition for flood simulation. Land-surface models (LSMs) have been developed to simulate mass and energy transfers, and to update the soil moisture condition through time from the solution of water and energy balance equations. They are recently used in distributed hydrologic modeling for flood prediction systems. Recent developments have made LSMs more complex by inclusion of more processes and controlling variables, increasing parameter number and uncertainty of their estimates. This also led to increasing of computational burden and parameterization of the distributed hydrologic models. In this study we investigate: 1) the role of soil moisture initial conditions in the modeling of Alpine basin floods; 2) the adequate complexity level of LSMs for the distributed hydrologic modeling of Alpine basin floods. The Toce basin is the case study; it is located in the North Piedmont (Italian Alps), and it has a total drainage area of 1534 km2 at Candoglia section. Three distributed hydrologic models of different level of complexity are developed and compared: two (TDLSM and SDLSM) are continuous models, one (FEST02) is an event model based on the simplified SCS-CN method for rainfall abstractions. In the TDLSM model a two-layer LSM computes both saturation and infiltration excess runoff, and simulates the evolution of the water table spatial distribution using the topographic index; in the SDLSM model a simplified one-layer distributed LSM only computes hortonian runoff, and doesn’t simulate the water table dynamic. All the three hydrologic models simulate the surface runoff propagation through the Muskingum-Cunge method. TDLSM and SDLSM models have been applied for the two-year (1996 and 1997) simulation period, during which two major floods occurred in the November 1996 and in the June 1997. The models have been calibrated and tested comparing simulated and

  4. Low-energy limit of the extended Linear Sigma Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Divotgey, Florian [Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Kovacs, Peter [Wigner Research Center for Physics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute for Particle and Nuclear Physics, Budapest (Hungary); GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, ExtreMe Matter Institute, Darmstadt (Germany); Giacosa, Francesco [Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Jan-Kochanowski University, Institute of Physics, Kielce (Poland); Rischke, Dirk H. [Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); University of Science and Technology of China, Interdisciplinary Center for Theoretical Study and Department of Modern Physics, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2018-01-15

    The extended Linear Sigma Model is an effective hadronic model based on the linear realization of chiral symmetry SU(N{sub f}){sub L} x SU(N{sub f}){sub R}, with (pseudo)scalar and (axial-)vector mesons as degrees of freedom. In this paper, we study the low-energy limit of the extended Linear Sigma Model (eLSM) for N{sub f} = flavors by integrating out all fields except for the pions, the (pseudo-)Nambu-Goldstone bosons of chiral symmetry breaking. The resulting low-energy effective action is identical to Chiral Perturbation Theory (ChPT) after choosing a representative for the coset space generated by chiral symmetry breaking and expanding it in powers of (derivatives of) the pion fields. The tree-level values of the coupling constants of the effective low-energy action agree remarkably well with those of ChPT. (orig.)

  5. A combined model based on spleen stiffness measurement and Baveno VI criteria to rule out high risk varices in advanced chronic liver disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colecchia, Antonio; Ravaioli, Federico; Marasco, Giovanni; Colli, Agostino; Dajti, Elton; Biase, Annarita Di; Reggiani, Maria Letizia Bacchi; Berzigotti, Annalisa; Pinzani, Massimo; Festi, Davide

    2018-05-02

    Recently, Baveno VI guidelines suggested that esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) can be avoided in patients with cACLD who have a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) 150,000/mm 3 . We aimed to: assess the performance of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) in ruling out patients with high-risk varices (HRV); validate Baveno VI criteria in a large population and assess how the sequential use of Baveno VI criteria and SSM could safely avoid the need for endoscopy. We retrospectively analysed 498 cACLD patients who had undergone LSM/SSM by transient elastography (TE) (Fibroscan®), platelet count and EGDs from 2012 to 2016 referred to our tertiary centre. The new combined model was validated internally by a split-validation method, and externally in a prospective multicentre cohort of 115 patients. SSM, LSM, platelet count and Child-Pugh-B were independent predictors of HRV. Applying the newly identified SSM cut-off (≤46 kPa) or Baveno VI criteria, 35.8% and 21.7% of patients in the internal validation cohort could have avoided EGD, with HRV being missed in only 2% in both cases. The combination of SSM with Baveno VI criteria would have led to additionally avoiding 22.5% of EGDs, reaching a final value of 43.8% spared EGDs, with <5% missed HRV. Results were confirmed in the prospective external validation cohort, as the combined Baveno VI/SSM≤46 Model would have safely spared (0 HRV missed) 37.4% of EGDs, compared to 16.5% avoiding Baveno VI Criteria only. A non-invasive prediction model combining SSM with Baveno VI criteria may be useful to rule out HRV and could make it possible to avoid a significantly larger number of unnecessary EGDs compared to Baveno VI criteria only. Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) assessed by TE, the most widely used electrographic technique, is a non-invasive technique that can help the physician to better stratify the degree of portal hypertension and the risk of oesophageal varices in patients with cACLD. Performing SSM together with LSM

  6. Expansion of the Real-time Sport-land Information System for NOAA/National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been running a real-time version of the Land Information System (LIS) since summer 2010 (hereafter, SPoRTLIS). The real-time SPoRT-LIS runs the Noah land surface model (LSM) in an offline capacity apart from a numerical weather prediction model, using input atmospheric and precipitation analyses (i.e., "forcings") to drive the Noah LSM integration at 3-km resolution. Its objectives are to (1) produce local-scale information about the soil state for NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) situational awareness applications such as drought monitoring and assessing flood potential, and (2) provide land surface initialization fields for local modeling initiatives. The current domain extent has been limited by the input atmospheric analyses that drive the Noah LSM integration within SPoRT-LIS, specifically the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV precipitation analyses. Due to the nature of the geographical edges of the Stage IV precipitation grid and its limitations in the western U.S., the SPoRT-LIS was originally confined to a domain fully nested within the Stage IV grid, over the southeastern half of the Conterminous United States (CONUS). In order to expand the real-time SPoRT-LIS to a full CONUS domain, alternative precipitation forcing datasets were explored in year-long, offline comparison runs of the Noah LSM. Based on results of these comparison simulations, we chose to implement the radar/gauge-based precipitation analyses from the National Severe Storms Laboratory as a replacement to the Stage IV product. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS; formerly known as the National Mosaic and multi-sensor Quantitative precipitation estimate) product has full CONUS coverage at higher-resolution, thereby providing better coverage and greater detail than that of the Stage IV product. This paper will describe the expanded/upgraded SPoRT-LIS, present comparisons between the

  7. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  8. Intercomparison of four regional climate models for the German State of Saxonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreienkamp, F.; Spekat, A.; Enke, W.

    2009-09-01

    Results from four regional climate models which focus on Central Europe are presented: CCLM, the climate version of the German Weather Service's Local Model - REMO, the regional dynamic model from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg - STAR, the statistical model developed at the PIK Potsdam Institute and WETTREG, the statistic-dynamic model developed by the company CEC Potsdam. For the area of the German State of Saxonia a host of properties and indicators were analyzed aiming to show the models' abilities to reconstruct the current climate and compare climate model scenarios. These include a group of thermal indicators, such as the number of ice, frost, summer and hot days, the number of tropical nights; then there are hydrometeorological indicators such as the exceedance of low and high precipitation thresholds; humidity, cloudiness and wind indicators complement the array. A selection of them showing similarities and differences of the models investigated will be presented.

  9. Use of machine learning techniques for modeling of snow depth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Ayzel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Snow exerts significant regulating effect on the land hydrological cycle since it controls intensity of heat and water exchange between the soil-vegetative cover and the atmosphere. Estimating of a spring flood runoff or a rain-flood on mountainous rivers requires understanding of the snow cover dynamics on a watershed. In our work, solving a problem of the snow cover depth modeling is based on both available databases of hydro-meteorological observations and easily accessible scientific software that allows complete reproduction of investigation results and further development of this theme by scientific community. In this research we used the daily observational data on the snow cover and surface meteorological parameters, obtained at three stations situated in different geographical regions: Col de Porte (France, Sodankyla (Finland, and Snoquamie Pass (USA.Statistical modeling of the snow cover depth is based on a complex of freely distributed the present-day machine learning models: Decision Trees, Adaptive Boosting, Gradient Boosting. It is demonstrated that use of combination of modern machine learning methods with available meteorological data provides the good accuracy of the snow cover modeling. The best results of snow cover depth modeling for every investigated site were obtained by the ensemble method of gradient boosting above decision trees – this model reproduces well both, the periods of snow cover accumulation and its melting. The purposeful character of learning process for models of the gradient boosting type, their ensemble character, and use of combined redundancy of a test sample in learning procedure makes this type of models a good and sustainable research tool. The results obtained can be used for estimating the snow cover characteristics for river basins where hydro-meteorological information is absent or insufficient.

  10. Expansion of the Real-Time SPoRT-Land Information System for NOAA/National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L; White, Kristopher D.

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL is running a real-time configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework (hereafter referred to as the "SPoRT-LIS"). Output from the real-time SPoRT-LIS is used for (1) initializing land surface variables for local modeling applications, and (2) displaying in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring at select NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices. The experimental CONUS run incorporates hourly quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from the National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi- Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) which will be transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Fall 2014.This paper describes the current and experimental SPoRT-LIS configurations, and documents some of the limitations still remaining through the advent of MRMS precipitation analyses in the SPoRT-LIS land surface model (LSM) simulations.

  11. Real-time remote sensing driven river basin modeling using radar altimetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Pereira-Cardenal

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Many river basins have a weak in-situ hydrometeorological monitoring infrastructure. However, water resources practitioners depend on reliable hydrological models for management purposes. Remote sensing (RS data have been recognized as an alternative to in-situ hydrometeorological data in remote and poorly monitored areas and are increasingly used to force, calibrate, and update hydrological models.

    In this study, we evaluate the potential of informing a river basin model with real-time radar altimetry measurements over reservoirs. We present a lumped, conceptual, river basin water balance modeling approach based entirely on RS and reanalysis data: precipitation was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, temperature from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF Operational Surface Analysis dataset and reference evapotranspiration was derived from temperature data. The Ensemble Kalman Filter was used to assimilate radar altimetry (ERS2 and Envisat measurements of reservoir water levels. The modeling approach was applied to the Syr Darya River Basin, a snowmelt-dominated basin with large topographical variability, several large reservoirs and scarce hydrometeorological data that is located in Central Asia and shared between 4 countries with conflicting water management interests.

    The modeling approach was tested over a historical period for which in-situ reservoir water levels were available. Assimilation of radar altimetry data significantly improved the performance of the hydrological model. Without assimilation of radar altimetry data, model performance was limited, probably because of the size and complexity of the model domain, simplifications inherent in model design, and the uncertainty of RS and reanalysis data. Altimetry data assimilation reduced the mean absolute error of the simulated reservoir water levels from 4.7 to 1.9 m, and

  12. Evaluation of the WRF-Urban Modeling System Coupled to Noah and Noah-MP Land Surface Models Over a Semiarid Urban Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamanca, Francisco; Zhang, Yizhou; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Mahalov, Alex; Miao, Shiguang

    2018-03-01

    We have augmented the existing capabilities of the integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-urban modeling system by coupling three urban canopy models (UCMs) available in the WRF model with the new community Noah with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) land surface model (LSM). The WRF-urban modeling system's performance has been evaluated by conducting six numerical experiments at high spatial resolution (1 km horizontal grid spacing) during a 15 day clear-sky summertime period for a semiarid urban environment. To assess the relative importance of representing urban surfaces, three different urban parameterizations are used with the Noah and Noah-MP LSMs, respectively, over the two major cities of Arizona: Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrate that Noah-MP reproduces somewhat better than Noah the daily evolution of surface skin temperature and near-surface air temperature (especially nighttime temperature) and wind speed. Concerning the urban areas, bulk urban parameterization overestimates nighttime 2 m air temperature compared to the single-layer and multilayer UCMs that reproduce more accurately the daily evolution of near-surface air temperature. Regarding near-surface wind speed, only the multilayer UCM was able to reproduce realistically the daily evolution of wind speed, although maximum winds were slightly overestimated, while both the single-layer and bulk urban parameterizations overestimated wind speed considerably. Based on these results, this paper demonstrates that the new community Noah-MP LSM coupled to an UCM is a promising physics-based predictive modeling tool for urban applications.

  13. Groundwater Withdrawals under Drought: Reconciling GRACE and Models in the United States High Plains Aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, W.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Kumar, S.; Rodell, M.

    2017-12-01

    Advanced Land Surface Models (LSM) offer a powerful tool for studying and monitoring hydrological variability. Highly managed systems, however, present a challenge for these models, which typically have simplified or incomplete representations of human water use, if the process is represented at all. GRACE, meanwhile, detects the total change in water storage, including change due to human activities, but does not resolve the source of these changes. Here we examine recent groundwater declines in the US High Plains Aquifer (HPA), a region that is heavily utilized for irrigation and that is also affected by episodic drought. To understand observed decline in groundwater (well observation) and terrestrial water storage (GRACE) during a recent multi-year drought, we modify the Noah-MP LSM to include a groundwater pumping irrigation scheme. To account for seasonal and interannual variability in active irrigated area we apply a monthly time-varying greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) dataset to the model. A set of five experiments were performed to study the impact of irrigation with groundwater withdrawal on the simulated hydrological cycle of the HPA and to assess the importance of time-varying GVF when simulating drought conditions. The results show that including the groundwater pumping irrigation scheme in Noah-MP improves model agreement with GRACE mascon solutions for TWS and well observations of groundwater anomaly in the southern HPA, including Texas and Kansas, and that accounting for time-varying GVF is important for model realism under drought. Results for the HPA in Nebraska are mixed, likely due to misrepresentation of the recharge process. This presentation will highlight the value of the GRACE constraint for model development, present estimates of the relative contribution of climate variability and irrigation to declining TWS in the HPA under drought, and identify opportunities to integrate GRACE-FO with models for water resource monitoring in heavily

  14. A real options-based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China's power generation sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Lei; Fan, Ying

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → This paper establishes a carbon captures and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model. → The model is based on real options theory and solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. → China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment. → The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. -- Abstract: This paper establishes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) investment evaluation model based on real options theory considering uncertainties from the existing thermal power generating cost, carbon price, thermal power with CCS generating cost, and investment in CCS technology deployment. The model aims to evaluate the value of the cost saving effect and amount of CO 2 emission reduction through investing in newly-built thermal power with CCS technology to replace existing thermal power in a given period from the perspective of power generation enterprises. The model is solved by the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. Since the model could be used as a policy analysis tool, China is taken as a case study to evaluate the effects of regulations on CCS investment through scenario analysis. The findings show that the current investment risk of CCS is high, climate policy having the greatest impact on CCS development. Thus, there is an important trade off for policy makers between reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the interests of power generation enterprises. The research presented would be useful for CCS technology evaluation and related policy-making.

  15. Application of snowmelt runoff model (SRM in mountainous watersheds: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shalamu Abudu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The snowmelt runoff model (SRM has been widely used in simulation and forecast of streamflow in snow-dominated mountainous basins around the world. This paper presents an overall review of worldwide applications of SRM in mountainous watersheds, particularly in data-sparse watersheds of northwestern China. Issues related to proper selection of input climate variables and parameters, and determination of the snow cover area (SCA using remote sensing data in snowmelt runoff modeling are discussed through extensive review of literature. Preliminary applications of SRM in northwestern China have shown that the model accuracies are relatively acceptable although most of the watersheds lack measured hydro-meteorological data. Future research could explore the feasibility of modeling snowmelt runoff in data-sparse mountainous watersheds in northwestern China by utilizing snow and glacier cover remote sensing data, geographic information system (GIS tools, field measurements, and innovative ways of model parameterization.

  16. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements

    KAUST Repository

    Niu, Guo-Yue

    2011-06-24

    This first paper of the two-part series describes the objectives of the community efforts in improving the Noah land surface model (LSM), documents, through mathematical formulations, the augmented conceptual realism in biophysical and hydrological processes, and introduces a framework for multiple options to parameterize selected processes (Noah-MP). The Noah-MP\\'s performance is evaluated at various local sites using high temporal frequency data sets, and results show the advantages of using multiple optional schemes to interpret the differences in modeling simulations. The second paper focuses on ensemble evaluations with long-term regional (basin) and global scale data sets. The enhanced conceptual realism includes (1) the vegetation canopy energy balance, (2) the layered snowpack, (3) frozen soil and infiltration, (4) soil moisture-groundwater interaction and related runoff production, and (5) vegetation phenology. Sample local-scale validations are conducted over the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) site, the W3 catchment of Sleepers River, Vermont, and a French snow observation site. Noah-MP shows apparent improvements in reproducing surface fluxes, skin temperature over dry periods, snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth, and runoff over Noah LSM version 3.0. Noah-MP improves the SWE simulations due to more accurate simulations of the diurnal variations of the snow skin temperature, which is critical for computing available energy for melting. Noah-MP also improves the simulation of runoff peaks and timing by introducing a more permeable frozen soil and more accurate simulation of snowmelt. We also demonstrate that Noah-MP is an effective research tool by which modeling results for a given process can be interpreted through multiple optional parameterization schemes in the same model framework. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  17. Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Decharme, Bertrand; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Minvielle, Marie; Polcher, Jan; Fairbairn, David; Weedon, Graham P.

    2018-04-01

    Physically consistent descriptions of land surface hydrology are crucial for planning human activities that involve freshwater resources, especially in light of the expected climate change scenarios. We assess how atmospheric forcing data uncertainties affect land surface model (LSM) simulations by means of an extensive evaluation exercise using a number of state-of-the-art remote sensing and station-based datasets. For this purpose, we use the CO2-responsive ISBA-A-gs LSM coupled with the CNRM version of the Total Runoff Integrated Pathways (CTRIP) river routing model. We perform multi-forcing simulations over the Euro-Mediterranean area (25-75.5° N, 11.5° W-62.5° E, at 0.5° resolution) from 1979 to 2012. The model is forced using four atmospheric datasets. Three of them are based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERA-I). The fourth dataset is independent from ERA-Interim: PGF, developed at Princeton University. The hydrological impacts of atmospheric forcing uncertainties are assessed by comparing simulated surface soil moisture (SSM), leaf area index (LAI) and river discharge against observation-based datasets: SSM from the European Space Agency's Water Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy and Climate Change Initiative projects (ESA-CCI), LAI of the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS), and Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) river discharge. The atmospheric forcing data are also compared to reference datasets. Precipitation is the most uncertain forcing variable across datasets, while the most consistent are air temperature and SW and LW radiation. At the monthly timescale, SSM and LAI simulations are relatively insensitive to forcing uncertainties. Some discrepancies with ESA-CCI appear to be forcing-independent and may be due to different assumptions underlying the LSM and the remote sensing retrieval algorithm. All simulations overestimate average summer and early-autumn LAI. Forcing uncertainty impacts on simulated river discharge are

  18. A customized light sheet microscope to measure spatio-temporal protein dynamics in small model organisms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rieckher

    Full Text Available We describe a customizable and cost-effective light sheet microscopy (LSM platform for rapid three-dimensional imaging of protein dynamics in small model organisms. The system is designed for high acquisition speeds and enables extended time-lapse in vivo experiments when using fluorescently labeled specimens. We demonstrate the capability of the setup to monitor gene expression and protein localization during ageing and upon starvation stress in longitudinal studies in individual or small groups of adult Caenorhabditis elegans nematodes. The system is equipped to readily perform fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP, which allows monitoring protein recovery and distribution under low photobleaching conditions. Our imaging platform is designed to easily switch between light sheet microscopy and optical projection tomography (OPT modalities. The setup permits monitoring of spatio-temporal expression and localization of ageing biomarkers of subcellular size and can be conveniently adapted to image a wide range of small model organisms and tissue samples.

  19. Excited scalar and pseudoscalar mesons in the extended linear sigma model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parganlija, Denis [Technische Universitaet Wien, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Vienna (Austria); Giacosa, Francesco [Jan Kochanowski University, Institute of Physics, Kielce (Poland); Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitaet, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

    2017-07-15

    We present an in-depth study of masses and decays of excited scalar and pseudoscalar anti qq states in the Extended Linear Sigma Model (eLSM). The model also contains ground-state scalar, pseudoscalar, vector and axial-vector mesons. The main objective is to study the consequences of the hypothesis that the f{sub 0}(1790) resonance, observed a decade ago by the BES Collaboration and recently by LHCb, represents an excited scalar quarkonium. In addition we also analyse the possibility that the new a{sub 0}(1950) resonance, observed recently by BABAR, may also be an excited scalar state. Both hypotheses receive justification in our approach although there appears to be some tension between the simultaneous interpretation of f{sub 0}(1790)/a{sub 0}(1950) and pseudoscalar mesons η(1295), π(1300), η(1440) and K(1460) as excited anti qq states. (orig.)

  20. Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to Simulate the Response of Vegetation to Warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, C. J.; Sloan, L. C.

    2004-12-01

    A major turnover in benthic marine and terrestrial fauna marks the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM) (~55Ma), a period of ~150 ky in which there was a rapid rise in deep sea and high latitude sea surface temperatures by 5-8C. Curiously, no major responses to this warming in the terrestrial floral record have been detected to date. Here, we present results from experiments examining the response of the global distribution of vegetation to changes in climate at the IETM using the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM1.2) integrated with a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). DGVMs allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate, and thus, provide a unique new method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in Earth's past. However, there are a number of drawbacks to using these models that can affect interpretation of results. More specifically, these drawbacks involve uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM, and lack of available detail regarding paleo-geography and paleo-soil type for use in model boundary conditions. For a better understanding of these drawbacks, we present results from a series of tests in the NCAR LSM-DGVM which examine (1) the effect of removing C4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. We consider our DGVM results for the IETM in light of output from these sensitivity experiments.

  1. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Zong-Liang

    2011-06-24

    The augmented Noah land surface model described in the first part of the two-part series was evaluated here over global river basins. Across various climate zones, global-scale tests can reveal a model\\'s weaknesses and strengths that a local-scale testing cannot. In addition, global-scale tests are more challenging than local- and catchment-scale tests. Given constant model parameters (e. g., runoff parameters) across global river basins, global-scale tests are more stringent. We assessed model performance against various satellite and ground-based observations over global river basins through six experiments that mimic a transition from the original Noah LSM to the fully augmented version. The model shows transitional improvements in modeling runoff, soil moisture, snow, and skin temperature, despite considerable increase in computational time by the fully augmented Noah-MP version compared to the original Noah LSM. The dynamic vegetation model favorably captures seasonal and spatial variability of leaf area index and green vegetation fraction. We also conducted 36 ensemble experiments with 36 combinations of optional schemes for runoff, leaf dynamics, stomatal resistance, and the β factor. Runoff schemes play a dominant and different role in controlling soil moisture and its relationship with evapotranspiration compared to ecological processes such as β the factor, vegetation dynamics, and stomatal resistance. The 36-member ensemble mean of runoff performs better than any single member over the world\\'s 50 largest river basins, suggesting a great potential of land-based ensemble simulations for climate prediction. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Coupled model of INM-IO global ocean model, CICE sea ice model and SCM OIAS framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayburin, Ruslan; Rashit, Ibrayev; Konstantin, Ushakov; Vladimir, Kalmykov; Gleb, Dyakonov

    2015-04-01

    Status of coupled Arctic model of ocean and sea ice is presented. Model consists of INM IO global ocean component of high resolution, Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE sea ice model and a framework SCM OIAS for the ocean-ice-atmosphere-land coupled modeling on massively-parallel architectures. Model is currently under development at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Hydrometeorological Center (HMC) and P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (IO). Model is aimed at modeling of intra-annual variability of hydrodynamics in Arctic and. The computational characteristics of the world ocean-sea ice coupled model governed by SCM OIAS are presented. The model is parallelized using MPI technologies and currently can use efficiently up to 5000 cores. Details of programming implementation, computational configuration and physical phenomena parametrization are analyzed in terms of intercoupling complex. Results of five year computational experiment of sea ice, snow and ocean state evolution in Arctic region on tripole grid with horizontal resolution of 3-5 kilometers, closed by atmospheric forcing field from repeating "normal" annual course taken from CORE1 experiment data base are presented and analyzed in terms of the state of vorticity and warm Atlantic water expansion.

  3. Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel F.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

    2017-04-01

    The land surface forms an essential part of the climate system. It interacts with the atmosphere through the exchange of water and energy and hence influences weather and climate, as well as their predictability. Correspondingly, the land surface model (LSM) is an essential part of any weather forecasting system. LSMs rely on partly poorly constrained parameters, due to sparse land surface observations. With the use of newly available land surface temperature observations, we show in this study that novel satellite-derived datasets help to improve LSM configuration, and hence can contribute to improved weather predictability. We use the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) and validate it comprehensively against an array of Earth observation reference datasets, including the new land surface temperature product. This reveals satisfactory model performance in terms of hydrology, but poor performance in terms of land surface temperature. This is due to inconsistencies of process representations in the model as identified from an analysis of perturbed parameter simulations. We show that HTESSEL can be more robustly calibrated with multiple instead of single reference datasets as this mitigates the impact of the structural inconsistencies. Finally, performing coupled global weather forecasts we find that a more robust calibration of HTESSEL also contributes to improved weather forecast skills. In summary, new satellite-based Earth observations are shown to enhance the multi-dataset calibration of LSMs, thereby improving the representation of insufficiently captured processes, advancing weather predictability and understanding of climate system feedbacks. Orth, R., E. Dutra, I. F. Trigo, and G. Balsamo (2016): Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-628

  4. Data driven modelling of vertical atmospheric radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antoch, Jaromir; Hlubinka, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    In the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) there exists a unique set of meteorological measurements consisting of the values of vertical atmospheric levels of beta and gamma radiation. In this paper a stochastic data-driven model based on nonlinear regression and on nonhomogeneous Poisson process is suggested. In the first part of the paper, growth curves were used to establish an appropriate nonlinear regression model. For comparison we considered a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with its intensity based on growth curves. In the second part both approaches were applied to the real data and compared. Computational aspects are briefly discussed as well. The primary goal of this paper is to present an improved understanding of the distribution of environmental radiation as obtained from the measurements of the vertical radioactivity profiles by the radioactivity sonde system. - Highlights: → We model vertical atmospheric levels of beta and gamma radiation. → We suggest appropriate nonlinear regression model based on growth curves. → We compare nonlinear regression modelling with Poisson process based modeling. → We apply both models to the real data.

  5. Research on Error Modelling and Identification of 3 Axis NC Machine Tools Based on Cross Grid Encoder Measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Z C; Lv, C F; Hong, M S

    2006-01-01

    A new error modelling and identification method based on the cross grid encoder is proposed in this paper. Generally, there are 21 error components in the geometric error of the 3 axis NC machine tools. However according our theoretical analysis, the squareness error among different guide ways affects not only the translation error component, but also the rotational ones. Therefore, a revised synthetic error model is developed. And the mapping relationship between the error component and radial motion error of round workpiece manufactured on the NC machine tools are deduced. This mapping relationship shows that the radial error of circular motion is the comprehensive function result of all the error components of link, worktable, sliding table and main spindle block. Aiming to overcome the solution singularity shortcoming of traditional error component identification method, a new multi-step identification method of error component by using the Cross Grid Encoder measurement technology is proposed based on the kinematic error model of NC machine tool. Firstly, the 12 translational error components of the NC machine tool are measured and identified by using the least square method (LSM) when the NC machine tools go linear motion in the three orthogonal planes: XOY plane, XOZ plane and YOZ plane. Secondly, the circular error tracks are measured when the NC machine tools go circular motion in the same above orthogonal planes by using the cross grid encoder Heidenhain KGM 182. Therefore 9 rotational errors can be identified by using LSM. Finally the experimental validation of the above modelling theory and identification method is carried out in the 3 axis CNC vertical machining centre Cincinnati 750 Arrow. The entire 21 error components have been successfully measured out by the above method. Research shows the multi-step modelling and identification method is very suitable for 'on machine measurement'

  6. Scaling between reanalyses and high-resolution land-surface modelling in mountainous areas - enabling better application and testing of reanalyses in heterogeneous environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, S.; Fiddes, J.

    2013-12-01

    In mountainous topography, the difference in scale between atmospheric reanalyses (typically tens of kilometres) and relevant processes and phenomena near the Earth surface, such as permafrost or snow cover (meters to tens of meters) is most obvious. This contrast of scales is one of the major obstacles to using reanalysis data for the simulation of surface phenomena and to confronting reanalyses with independent observation. At the example of modelling permafrost in mountain areas (but simple to generalise to other phenomena and heterogeneous environments), we present and test methods against measurements for (A) scaling atmospheric data from the reanalysis to the ground level and (B) smart sampling of the heterogeneous landscape in order to set up a lumped model simulation that represents the high-resolution land surface. TopoSCALE (Part A, see http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-3381-2013) is a scheme, which scales coarse-grid climate fields to fine-grid topography using pressure level data. In addition, it applies necessary topographic corrections e.g. those variables required for computation of radiation fields. This provides the necessary driving fields to the LSM. Tested against independent ground data, this scheme has been shown to improve the scaling and distribution of meteorological parameters in complex terrain, as compared to conventional methods, e.g. lapse rate based approaches. TopoSUB (Part B, see http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1245-2012) is a surface pre-processor designed to sample a fine-grid domain (defined by a digital elevation model) along important topographical (or other) dimensions through a clustering scheme. This allows constructing a lumped model representing the main sources of fine-grid variability and applying a 1D LSM efficiently over large areas. Results can processed to derive (i) summary statistics at coarse-scale re-analysis grid resolution, (ii) high-resolution data fields spatialized to e.g., the fine-scale digital elevation

  7. A molecular computational model improves the preoperative diagnosis of thyroid nodules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomei, Sara; Marchetti, Ivo; Zavaglia, Katia; Lessi, Francesca; Apollo, Alessandro; Aretini, Paolo; Di Coscio, Giancarlo; Bevilacqua, Generoso; Mazzanti, Chiara

    2012-01-01

    Thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytological features on fine needle aspiration (FNA) cytology have a 20% risk of thyroid cancer. The aim of the current study was to determine the diagnostic utility of an 8-gene assay to distinguish benign from malignant thyroid neoplasm. The mRNA expression level of 9 genes (KIT, SYNGR2, C21orf4, Hs.296031, DDI2, CDH1, LSM7, TC1, NATH) was analysed by quantitative PCR (q-PCR) in 93 FNA cytological samples. To evaluate the diagnostic utility of all the genes analysed, we assessed the area under the curve (AUC) for each gene individually and in combination. BRAF exon 15 status was determined by pyrosequencing. An 8-gene computational model (Neural Network Bayesian Classifier) was built and a multiple-variable analysis was then performed to assess the correlation between the markers. The AUC for each significant marker ranged between 0.625 and 0.900, thus all the significant markers, alone and in combination, can be used to distinguish between malignant and benign FNA samples. The classifier made up of KIT, CDH1, LSM7, C21orf4, DDI2, TC1, Hs.296031 and BRAF had a predictive power of 88.8%. It proved to be useful for risk stratification of the most critical cytological group of the indeterminate lesions for which there is the greatest need of accurate diagnostic markers. The genetic classification obtained with this model is highly accurate at differentiating malignant from benign thyroid lesions and might be a useful adjunct in the preoperative management of patients with thyroid nodules

  8. Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getirana, Augusto C. V.; Dutra, Emanuel; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Kam, Jonghun; Li, Hong-Yi; Decharme, Bertrand; Zhang, Zhengqiu; Ducharne, Agnes; Boone, Aaron; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; hide

    2014-01-01

    Despite recent advances in land surfacemodeling and remote sensing, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the water budget of the Amazon basin based on several state-ofthe- art land surface model (LSM) outputs. Water budget variables (terrestrial water storage TWS, evapotranspiration ET, surface runoff R, and base flow B) are evaluated at the basin scale using both remote sensing and in situ data. Meteorological forcings at a 3-hourly time step and 18 spatial resolution were used to run 14 LSMs. Precipitation datasets that have been rescaled to matchmonthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) andGlobal Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) datasets and the daily Hydrologie du Bassin de l'Amazone (HYBAM) dataset were used to perform three experiments. The Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme was forced with R and B and simulated discharges are compared against observations at 165 gauges. Simulated ET and TWS are compared against FLUXNET and MOD16A2 evapotranspiration datasets andGravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE)TWSestimates in two subcatchments of main tributaries (Madeira and Negro Rivers).At the basin scale, simulated ET ranges from 2.39 to 3.26 mm day(exp -1) and a low spatial correlation between ET and precipitation indicates that evapotranspiration does not depend on water availability over most of the basin. Results also show that other simulated water budget components vary significantly as a function of both the LSM and precipitation dataset, but simulated TWS generally agrees with GRACE estimates at the basin scale. The best water budget simulations resulted from experiments using HYBAM, mostly explained by a denser rainfall gauge network and the rescaling at a finer temporal scale.

  9. A molecular computational model improves the preoperative diagnosis of thyroid nodules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomei Sara

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytological features on fine needle aspiration (FNA cytology have a 20% risk of thyroid cancer. The aim of the current study was to determine the diagnostic utility of an 8-gene assay to distinguish benign from malignant thyroid neoplasm. Methods The mRNA expression level of 9 genes (KIT, SYNGR2, C21orf4, Hs.296031, DDI2, CDH1, LSM7, TC1, NATH was analysed by quantitative PCR (q-PCR in 93 FNA cytological samples. To evaluate the diagnostic utility of all the genes analysed, we assessed the area under the curve (AUC for each gene individually and in combination. BRAF exon 15 status was determined by pyrosequencing. An 8-gene computational model (Neural Network Bayesian Classifier was built and a multiple-variable analysis was then performed to assess the correlation between the markers. Results The AUC for each significant marker ranged between 0.625 and 0.900, thus all the significant markers, alone and in combination, can be used to distinguish between malignant and benign FNA samples. The classifier made up of KIT, CDH1, LSM7, C21orf4, DDI2, TC1, Hs.296031 and BRAF had a predictive power of 88.8%. It proved to be useful for risk stratification of the most critical cytological group of the indeterminate lesions for which there is the greatest need of accurate diagnostic markers. Conclusion The genetic classification obtained with this model is highly accurate at differentiating malignant from benign thyroid lesions and might be a useful adjunct in the preoperative management of patients with thyroid nodules.

  10. Detecting geothermal anomalies and evaluating LST geothermal component by combining thermal remote sensing time series and land surface model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romaguera, Mireia; Vaughan, R. Greg; Ettema, J.; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E.; Hecker, C. A.; van der Meer, F.D.

    2018-01-01

    This paper explores for the first time the possibilities to use two land surface temperature (LST) time series of different origins (geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite data and Noah land surface modelling, LSM), to detect geothermal anomalies and extract the geothermal component of LST, the LSTgt. We hypothesize that in geothermal areas the LSM time series will underestimate the LST as compared to the remote sensing data, since the former does not account for the geothermal component in its model.In order to extract LSTgt, two approaches of different nature (physical based and data mining) were developed and tested in an area of about 560 × 560 km2 centered at the Kenyan Rift. Pre-dawn data in the study area during the first 45 days of 2012 were analyzed.The results show consistent spatial and temporal LSTgt patterns between the two approaches, and systematic differences of about 2 K. A geothermal area map from surface studies was used to assess LSTgt inside and outside the geothermal boundaries. Spatial means were found to be higher inside the geothermal limits, as well as the relative frequency of occurrence of high LSTgt. Results further show that areas with strong topography can result in anomalously high LSTgt values (false positives), which suggests the need for a slope and aspect correction in the inputs to achieve realistic results in those areas. The uncertainty analysis indicates that large uncertainties of the input parameters may limit detection of LSTgt anomalies. To validate the approaches, higher spatial resolution images from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data over the Olkaria geothermal field were used. An established method to estimate radiant geothermal flux was applied providing values between 9 and 24 W/m2 in the geothermal area, which coincides with the LSTgt flux rates obtained with the proposed approaches.The proposed approaches are a first step in estimating LSTgt

  11. Influence of the management strategy model on estimating water system performance under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Hendrickx, Frederic

    2015-04-01

    The performance of water systems used worldwide for the management of water resources is expected to be influenced by future changes in regional climates and water uses. Anticipating possible performance changes of a given system requires a modeling chain simulating its management. Operational management is usually not trivial especially when several conflicting objectives have to be accounted for. Management models are therefore often a crude representation of the real system and they only approximate its performance. Estimated performance changes are expected to depend on the management model used, but this is often not assessed. This communication analyzes the influence of the management strategy representation on the performance of an Alpine reservoir (Serre-Ponçon, South-East of France) for which irrigation supply, hydropower generation and recreational activities are the main objectives. We consider three ways to construct the strategy named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). System performance is estimated for an ensemble of future hydro-meteorological projections obtained in the RIWER2030 research project (http://www.lthe.fr/RIWER2030/) from a suite of climate experiments from the EU - ENSEMBLES research project. Our results show that changes in system performance is much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the choice of strategy modeling. They also show that a simple strategy representation (i.e. clear-sighted management) leads to similar estimates of performance modifications than those obtained with a representation supposedly closer to real world (i.e. the far-sighted management). The Short-Sighted management approach lead to significantly different results, especially

  12. Simulation and optimisation modelling approach for operation of the Hoa Binh Reservoir, Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ngo, Long le; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2007-01-01

    Hoa Binh, the largest reservoir in Vietnam, plays an important role in flood control for the Red River delta and hydropower generation. Due to its multi-purpose character, conflicts and disputes in operating the reservoir have been ongoing since its construction, particularly in the flood season....... This paper proposes to optimise the control strategies for the Hoa Binh reservoir operation by applying a combination of simulation and optimisation models. The control strategies are set up in the MIKE 11 simulation model to guide the releases of the reservoir system according to the current storage level......, the hydro-meteorological conditions, and the time of the year. A heuristic global optimisation tool, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm, is adopted for optimising the reservoir operation. The optimisation puts focus on the trade-off between flood control and hydropower generation for the Hoa...

  13. Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Rozumalski, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    past year. The domain was expanded slightly to extend further west, north, and east to improve coverage over parts of southern Canada. Minor adjustments were also made to the manner in which GVF is calculated from the distribution of maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from MODIS. The presentation will highlight some examples of the substantial inter-annual change in GVF that occurred from 2010 to 2011 in the U.S. Southern Plains as a result of the summer 2011 drought, and the early vegetation green up across the eastern U.S. due to the very warm conditions in March 2012. Finally, the SPoRT LIS runs the operational Noah land surface model (LSM) in real time over much of the eastern half of the CONUS. The Noah LSM is continually cycled in real time, uncoupled to any model, and driven by operational atmospheric analyses over a long-term, multi-year integration. The LIS-Noah provides the STRC EMS with high-resolution (3 km) LSM initialization data that are in equilibrium with the operational analysis forcing. The Noah LSM within the SPoRT LIS has been upgraded from version 2.7.1 to version 3.2, which has improved look-up table attributes for several land surface quantities. The surface albedo field is now being adjusted based on the input real-time MODIS GVF, thereby improving the net radiation. Also, the LIS-Noah now uses the newer MODIS-based land use classification scheme (i.e. the International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme [IGBP]) that has a better depiction of urban corridors in areas where urban sprawl has occurred. STRC EMS users interested in initializing their LSM fields with high-resolution SPoRT LIS data should set up their model domain with the MODIS-IGBP 20-class land use database and select Noah as the LSM.

  14. Impacts of land-use change on the water cycle of urban areas within the Upper Great Lakes drainage basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Pijanowski, B. C.; Niyogi, D.

    2006-12-01

    Urbanization is altering the global landscape at an unprecedented rate. This form of land cover/land-use change (LCLUC) can significantly reduce infiltration and runoff response times, and alter heat and water vapor fluxes, which can further alter surface-forced regional circulation patterns and modulate precipitation volume and intensity. Spatial patterns of future LCLUC are projected using the Land Transformation Model (LTM), enhanced to incorporate dynamic landcover, economics and policy using Bayesian Belief Networks (LTM- BBN). Different land use scenarios predicted by the LTM-BBN as well as a pre-development scenario are represented through the Unified Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) with an enhanced urban canopy model, embedded in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The coupled WRF-Noah LSM model will be used to investigate the connections between land-use, hydrometeorology and the atmosphere, through analysis of water and energy balances over several urbanized watersheds within the Upper Great Lakes region. Preliminary results focus on a single watershed, the White River in Indiana, which includes the city of Indianapolis. Coupled WRF-Noah simulations made using pre and post-development land use maps provide a 7 year climatology of convective storm morphology around the urban center. Precipitation and other meteorological variables from the WRF-Noah simulations are used to drive simulations of the White River watershed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model. The VIC model has been modified to represent urban areas and has been calibrated for modern flow regimes in the White River watershed. Pre- and post-development VIC simulations are used to assess the impact of Indianapolis area infiltration changes. Finally, VIC model simulations utilizing projected land use change from 2005 through 2040 for the Indianapolis metropolitan area explore the magnitude of future hydrologic change, especially peak flow response

  15. Challenges of model transferability to data-scarce regions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.

    2013-12-01

    Developing the ability to globally predict the movement of water on the land surface at spatial scales from 1 to 5 km constitute one of grand challenges in land surface modelling. Copying with this grand challenge implies that land surface models (LSM) should be able to make reliable predictions across locations and/or scales other than those used for parameter estimation. In addition to that, data scarcity and quality impose further difficulties in attaining reliable predictions of water and energy fluxes at the scales of interest. Current computational limitations impose also seriously limitations to exhaustively investigate the parameter space of LSM over large domains (e.g. greater than half a million square kilometers). Addressing these challenges require holistic approaches that integrate the best techniques available for parameter estimation, field measurements and remotely sensed data at their native resolutions. An attempt to systematically address these issues is the multiscale parameterisation technique (MPR) that links high resolution land surface characteristics with effective model parameters. This technique requires a number of pedo-transfer functions and a much fewer global parameters (i.e. coefficients) to be inferred by calibration in gauged basins. The key advantage of this technique is the quasi-scale independence of the global parameters which enables to estimate global parameters at coarser spatial resolutions and then to transfer them to (ungauged) areas and scales of interest. In this study we show the ability of this technique to reproduce the observed water fluxes and states over a wide range of climate and land surface conditions ranging from humid to semiarid and from sparse to dense forested regions. Results of transferability of global model parameters in space (from humid to semi-arid basins) and across scales (from coarser to finer) clearly indicate the robustness of this technique. Simulations with coarse data sets (e.g. EOBS

  16. LSM DAN GERAKAN ANTI KORUPSI : ANALISIS PERAN LSM DALAM MEMBANGUN KESADARAN ANTI KORUPSI DAN DALAM MEMERANGI TINDAK PIDANA KORUPSI DI KOTA SEMARANG

    OpenAIRE

    Puji Astuti

    2016-01-01

    Corruption in Indonesia still be a great challenges,  because  corruption  more extend, not only in national government, but also expand  in local government, mainly after  local election choose by people.  Almost local government should facing corruption that involved almost all institution, not only in legislative, excecutive, and judicative, but also private corporation. Thus research would describe corruption in Semarang City, and how the role of NGO,  mainly Pattiro and KP2KKN in combati...

  17. LSM DAN GERAKAN ANTI KORUPSI : ANALISIS PERAN LSM DALAM MEMBANGUN KESADARAN ANTI KORUPSI DAN DALAM MEMERANGI TINDAK PIDANA KORUPSI DI KOTA SEMARANG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puji Astuti

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Corruption in Indonesia still be a great challenges,  because  corruption  more extend, not only in national government, but also expand  in local government, mainly after  local election choose by people.  Almost local government should facing corruption that involved almost all institution, not only in legislative, excecutive, and judicative, but also private corporation. Thus research would describe corruption in Semarang City, and how the role of NGO,  mainly Pattiro and KP2KKN in combating corruption.  NGO have an important role both in educating of Anti-Corruption  and controlling the handle of corruption. The most goals of Education to the people  mainly how people being intolerance to corruption. Education program involving  other institution like KPK, ICW and other NGO with the same of vision in combating corruption. In other side, the role of NGO was cotrolling judicature process with Mass Media as a partner. Without Mass Media, NGO won’t be an effectiveness in combating corruption. Because  NGO still facing lack of resources in Human and financial as a force in combating corruption, so  making  a coorporation with University would be the best choices in the future, mainly in anti-corruption education.

  18. Lsm Dan Gerakan Anti Korupsi : Analisis Peran Lsm Dalam Membangun Kesadaran Anti Korupsi Dan Dalam Memerangi Tindak Pidana Korupsi Di Kota Semarang

    OpenAIRE

    Astuti, Puji

    2014-01-01

    Corruption in Indonesia still be a great challenges, because corruption more extend, not only in national government, but also expand in local government, mainly after local election choose by people. Almost local government should facing corruption that involved almost all institution, not only in legislative, excecutive, and judicative, but also private corporation. Thus research would describe corruption in Semarang City, and how the role of NGO, mainly Pattiro and KP2KKN in combati...

  19. Content analysis of Hydrometeorological Network in the Lower ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    jen

    Thus important hydrometerological information relevant to agricultural planning are missing. ... they are meant to provide information to aid in planning .... security were missed. The study ... Nigeria. Unpublished M.Sc thesis, Department.

  20. Hydro-meteorological data analysis using OLAP techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Néstor Darío Duque-Méndez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available La riqueza de los datos registrados por las redes de estaciones hidrometeorológicas ofrece una gran oportunidad para analizar, conocer y entender mejor las variables hidroclimatológicas. Por lo tanto, el almacenamiento eficiente de los datos y su tratamiento eficaz son un requisito previo para la investigación meteorológica e hidrológica que requiere de estrategias para que la captación, transmisión, almacenamiento y procesamiento de datos que garanticen su calidad y consistencia. El propósito de este trabajo es desarrollar un modelo conceptual para una bodega de datos diseñada en un esquema en estrella que permita el almacenamiento estructurado y el análisis multidimensional de series históricas de datos hidroclimatológicos. La información registrada por las redes telemétricas de estaciones hidrometeorológicas existentes en Manizales y en el Departamento de Caldas son la fuente de información. El esquema de bodega de datos propuesto aprovecha los datos disponibles (en algunos casos más de 50 años con el fin de aplicar procesamiento analítico en línea (OLAP para analizar la calidad de la información y descubrir relaciones ocultas entre las variables, en una región particularmente afectada por el cambio climático y especialmente por fenómenos de variabilidad climática. La principal contribución de este documento abarca la exploración de alternativas a los métodos tradicionales de almacenamiento y análisis de información y la presentación de un número de casos que demuestran la eficacia del modelo propuesto en la evaluación de la calidad de los datos y de la visualización de las relaciones entre las diversas variables a diferentes escalas y para casos específicos.

  1. Similarity Assessment of Land Surface Model Outputs in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sujay V.; Wang, Shugong; Mocko, David M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Xia, Youlong

    2017-11-01

    Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.

  2. Land Surface Model Biases and their Impacts on the Assimilation of Snow-related Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, K. R.; Kumar, S.; Hunter, S. M.; Aman, R.; Houser, P. R.; Toll, D.; Engman, T.; Nigro, J.

    2007-12-01

    Some recent snow modeling studies have employed a wide range of assimilation methods to incorporate snow cover or other snow-related observations into different hydrological or land surface models. These methods often include taking both model and observation biases into account throughout the model integration. This study focuses more on diagnosing the model biases and presenting their subsequent impacts on assimilating snow observations and modeled snowmelt processes. In this study, the land surface model, the Community Land Model (CLM), is used within the Land Information System (LIS) modeling framework to show how such biases impact the assimilation of MODIS snow cover observations. Alternative in-situ and satellite-based observations are used to help guide the CLM LSM in better predicting snowpack conditions and more realistic timing of snowmelt for a western US mountainous region. Also, MODIS snow cover observation biases will be discussed, and validation results will be provided. The issues faced with inserting or assimilating MODIS snow cover at moderate spatial resolutions (like 1km or less) will be addressed, and the impacts on CLM will be presented.

  3. Soil Water Balance and Vegetation Dynamics in two Water-limited Mediterranean Ecosystem on Sardinia under past and future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Albertson, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    Water limited conditions strongly impacts soil and vegetation dynamics in Mediterranean regions, which are commonly heterogeneous ecosystems, characterized by inter-annual rainfall variability, topography variability and contrasting plant functional types (PFTs) competing for water use. Historical human influences (e.g., deforestation, urbanization) further altered these ecosystems. Sardinia island is a representative region of Mediterranean ecosystems. It is low urbanized except some plan areas close to the main cities where main agricultural activities are concentrated. Two contrasting case study sites are within the Flumendosa river basin (1700 km2). The first site is a typical grassland on an alluvial plan valley (soil depth > 2m) while the second is a patchy mixture of Mediterranean vegetation species (mainly wild olive trees and C3 herbaceous) that grow in a soil bounded from below by a rocky layer of basalt, partially fractured (soil depth 15 - 40 cm). In both sites land-surface fluxes and CO2 fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation technique while soil moisture was continuously estimated with water content reflectometers, and periodically leaf area index (LAI) was estimated. The following objectives are addressed:1) pointing out the dynamics of land surface fluxes, soil moisture, CO2 and vegetation cover for two contrasting water-limited ecosystems; 2) assess the impact of the soil depth and type on the CO2 and water balance dynamics; 3) evaluate the impact of past and future climate change scenarios on the two contrasting ecosystems. For reaching the objectives an ecohydrologic model that couples a vegetation dynamic model (VDM), and a 3-component (bare soil, grass and woody vegetation) land surface model (LSM) has been used. Historical meteorological data are available from 1922 and hydro-meteorological scenarios are then generated using a weather generator. The VDM-LSM model predict soil water balance and vegetation dynamics for the generated

  4. Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Spädtke, P

    2013-01-01

    Modeling of technical machines became a standard technique since computer became powerful enough to handle the amount of data relevant to the specific system. Simulation of an existing physical device requires the knowledge of all relevant quantities. Electric fields given by the surrounding boundary as well as magnetic fields caused by coils or permanent magnets have to be known. Internal sources for both fields are sometimes taken into account, such as space charge forces or the internal magnetic field of a moving bunch of charged particles. Used solver routines are briefly described and some bench-marking is shown to estimate necessary computing times for different problems. Different types of charged particle sources will be shown together with a suitable model to describe the physical model. Electron guns are covered as well as different ion sources (volume ion sources, laser ion sources, Penning ion sources, electron resonance ion sources, and H$^-$-sources) together with some remarks on beam transport.

  5. Evolution of noninvasive tests of liver fibrosis is associated with prognosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergniol, Julien; Boursier, Jérôme; Coutzac, Clélia; Bertrais, Sandrine; Foucher, Juliette; Angel, Camille; Chermak, Faiza; Hubert, Isabelle Fouchard; Merrouche, Wassil; Oberti, Frédéric; de Lédinghen, Victor; Calès, Paul

    2014-07-01

    No data are available about the prediction of long-term survival using repeated noninvasive tests of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). We aimed to assess the prognostic value of 3-year liver stiffness measurement (LSM), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), and fibrosis 4 (FIB-4) evolution in CHC. CHC patients with two LSM (1,000-1,500 days interval) were prospectively included. Blood fibrosis tests APRI and FIB-4 were calculated the day of baseline (bLSM) and follow-up (fLSM) LSM. Evolution of fibrosis tests was expressed as delta: (follow-up-baseline results)/duration. Date and cause of death were recorded during follow-up that started the day of fLSM. In all, 1,025 patients were included. Median follow-up after fLSM was 38.0 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 27.7-46.1) during which 35 patients died (14 liver-related death) and seven had liver transplantation. Prognostic accuracy (Harrell C-index) of multivariate models including baseline and delta results was not significantly different between LSM and FIB-4 (P ≥ 0.24), whereas FIB-4 provided more accurate prognostic models than APRI (P = 0.03). By multivariate analysis including LSM variables, overall survival was independently predicted by bLSM, delta (dLSM), and sustained virological response (SVR). Prognosis was excellent in patients having bLSM 0 kPa/year) in ≥ 14 kPa bLSM had the worst prognosis. Baseline and delta FIB-4 also identified patient subgroups with significantly different prognosis. Three-year evolution of noninvasive tests of liver fibrosis has a strong prognostic value in CHC patients. These tests should be repeated to monitor patients and predict their outcome. © 2014 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  6. Numerical modeling and remote sensing of global water management systems: Applications for land surface modeling, satellite missions, and sustainable water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solander, Kurt C.

    The ability to accurately quantify water storages and fluxes in water management systems through observations or models is of increasing importance due to the expected impacts from climate change and population growth worldwide. Here, I describe three innovative techniques developed to better understand this problem. First, a model was created to represent reservoir storage and outflow with the objective of integration into a Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate the impacts of reservoir management on the climate system. Given this goal, storage capacity represented the lone model input required that is not already available to an LSM user. Model parameterization was linked to air temperature to allow future simulations to adapt to a changing climate, making it the first such model to mimic the potential response of a reservoir operator to climate change. Second, spatial and temporal error properties of future NASA Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite reservoir operations were quantified. This work invoked the use of the SWOTsim instrument simulator, which was run over a number of synthetic and actual reservoirs so the resulting error properties could be extrapolated to the global scale. The results provide eventual users of SWOT data with a blueprint of expected reservoir error properties so such characteristics can be determined a priori for a reservoir given knowledge about its topology and anticipated repeat orbit pass over its location. Finally, data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission was used in conjunction with in-situ water use records to evaluate sustainable water use at the two-digit HUC basin scale over the contiguous United States. Results indicate that the least sustainable water management region is centered in the southwest, where consumptive water use exceeded water availability by over 100% on average for some of these basins. This work represents the first attempt at evaluating sustainable

  7. A GUIDED SWAT MODEL APPLICATION ON SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING IN PANGANI RIVER BASIN: LESSONS LEARNT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preksedis Marco Ndomba

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to report on the lessons learnt from applying Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT in a well guided sediment yield modelling study. The study area is the upstream of Pangani River Basin (PRB, the Nyumba Ya Mungu (NYM reservoir catchment, located in the North Eastern part of Tanzania. It should be noted that, previous modeling exercises in the region applied SWAT with preassumption that inter-rill or sheet erosion was the dominant erosion type. In contrast, in this study SWAT model application was guided by results of analysis of high temporal resolution of sediment flow data and hydro-meteorological data. The runoff component of the SWAT model was calibrated from six-years (i.e. 1977–1982 of historical daily streamflow data. The sediment component of the model was calibrated using one-year (1977–1988 daily sediment loads estimated from one hydrological year sampling programme (between March and November, 2005 rating curve. A long-term period over 37 years (i.e. 1969–2005 simulation results of the SWAT model was validated to downstream NYM reservoir sediment accumulation information. The SWAT model captured 56 percent of the variance (CE and underestimated the observed daily sediment loads by 0.9 percent according to Total Mass Control (TMC performance indices during a normal wet hydrological year, i.e., between November 1, 1977 and October 31, 1978, as the calibration period. SWAT model predicted satisfactorily the long-term sediment catchment yield with a relative error of 2.6 percent. Also, the model has identified erosion sources spatially and has replicated some erosion processes as determined in other studies and field observations in the PRB. This result suggests that for catchments where sheet erosion is dominant SWAT model may substitute the sediment-rating curve. However, the SWAT model could not capture the dynamics of sediment load delivery in some seasons to the catchment outlet.

  8. A GUIDED SWAT MODEL APPLICATION ON SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING IN PANGANI RIVER BASIN: LESSONS LEARNT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preksedis M. Ndomba

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to report on the lessons learnt from applying Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT in a well guided sediment yield modelling study. The study area is the upstream of Pangani River Basin (PRB, the Nyumba Ya Mungu (NYM reservoir catchment, located in the North Eastern part of Tanzania. It should be noted that, previous modeling exercises in the region applied SWAT with preassumption that inter-rill or sheet erosion was the dominant erosion type. In contrast, in this study SWAT model application was guided by results of analysis of high temporal resolution of sediment flow data and hydro-meteorological data. The runoff component of the SWAT model was calibrated from six-years (i.e. 1977¿1982 of historical daily streamflow data. The sediment component of the model was calibrated using one-year (1977-1988 daily sediment loads estimated from one hydrological year sampling programme (between March and November, 2005 rating curve. A long-term period over 37 years (i.e. 1969-2005 simulation results of the SWAT model was validated to downstream NYM reservoir sediment accumulation information. The SWAT model captured 56 percent of the variance (CE and underestimated the observed daily sediment loads by 0.9 percent according to Total Mass Control (TMC performance indices during a normal wet hydrological year, i.e., between November 1, 1977 and October 31, 1978, as the calibration period. SWAT model predicted satisfactorily the long-term sediment catchment yield with a relative error of 2.6 percent. Also, the model has identified erosion sources spatially and has replicated some erosion processes as determined in other studies and field observations in the PRB. This result suggests that for catchments where sheet erosion is dominant SWAT model may substitute the sediment-rating curve. However, the SWAT model could not capture the dynamics of sediment load delivery in some seasons to the catchment outlet.

  9. Forecasting summertime surface temperature and precipitation in the Mexico City metropolitan area: sensitivity of the WRF model to land cover changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Bravo, Clemente; Caetano, Ernesto; Magaña, Víctor

    2018-02-01

    Changes in the frequency and intensity of severe hydrometeorological events in recent decades in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area have motivated the development of weather warning systems. The weather forecasting system for this region was evaluated in sensitivity studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for July 2014, a summer time month. It was found that changes in the extent of the urban area and associated changes in thermodynamic and dynamic variables have induced local circulations that affect the diurnal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and wind fields. A newly implemented configuration (land cover update and Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA)) of the WRF model has improved the adjustment of the precipitation field to the orography. However, errors related to the depiction of convection due to parameterizations and microphysics remains a source of uncertainty in weather forecasting in this region.

  10. Conjunctively optimizing flash flood control and water quality in urban water reservoirs by model predictive control and dynamic emulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galelli, Stefano; Goedbloed, Albert; Schmitter, Petra; Castelletti, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Urban water reservoirs are a viable adaptation option to account for increasing drinking water demand of urbanized areas as they allow storage and re-use of water that is normally lost. In addition, the direct availability of freshwater reduces pumping costs and diversifies the portfolios of drinking water supply. Yet, these benefits have an associated twofold cost. Firstly, the presence of large, impervious areas increases the hydraulic efficiency of urban catchments, with short time of concentration, increased runoff rates, losses of infiltration and baseflow, and higher risk of flash floods. Secondly, the high concentration of nutrients and sediments characterizing urban discharges is likely to cause water quality problems. In this study we propose a new control scheme combining Model Predictive Control (MPC), hydro-meteorological forecasts and dynamic model emulation to design real-time operating policies that conjunctively optimize water quantity and quality targets. The main advantage of this scheme stands in its capability of exploiting real-time hydro-meteorological forecasts, which are crucial in such fast-varying systems. In addition, the reduced computational requests of the MPC scheme allows coupling it with dynamic emulators of water quality processes. The approach is demonstrated on Marina Reservoir, a multi-purpose reservoir located in the heart of Singapore and characterized by a large, highly urbanized catchment with a short (i.e. approximately one hour) time of concentration. Results show that the MPC scheme, coupled with a water quality emulator, provides a good compromise between different operating objectives, namely flood risk reduction, drinking water supply and salinity control. Finally, the scheme is used to assess the effect of source control measures (e.g. green roofs) aimed at restoring the natural hydrological regime of Marina Reservoir catchment.

  11. Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Profiles into a Crop Modeling Framework for Reliable Yield Estimations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, V.; Cruise, J.; Mecikalski, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Much effort has been expended recently on the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture into operational land surface models (LSM). These efforts have normally been focused on the use of data derived from the microwave bands and results have often shown that improvements to model simulations have been limited due to the fact that microwave signals only penetrate the top 2-5 cm of the soil surface. It is possible that model simulations could be further improved through the introduction of geostationary satellite thermal infrared (TIR) based root zone soil moisture in addition to the microwave deduced surface estimates. In this study, root zone soil moisture estimates from the TIR based Atmospheric Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model were merged with NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) based surface estimates through the application of informational entropy. Entropy can be used to characterize the movement of moisture within the vadose zone and accounts for both advection and diffusion processes. The Principle of Maximum Entropy (POME) can be used to derive complete soil moisture profiles and, fortuitously, only requires a surface boundary condition as well as the overall mean moisture content of the soil column. A lower boundary can be considered a soil parameter or obtained from the LSM itself. In this study, SMAP provided the surface boundary while ALEXI supplied the mean and the entropy integral was used to tie the two together and produce the vertical profile. However, prior to the merging, the coarse resolution (9 km) SMAP data were downscaled to the finer resolution (4.7 km) ALEXI grid. The disaggregation scheme followed the Soil Evaporative Efficiency approach and again, all necessary inputs were available from the TIR model. The profiles were then assimilated into a standard agricultural crop model (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology, DSSAT) via the ensemble Kalman Filter. The study was conducted over the Southeastern United States for the

  12. Incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergopolan, N.; Chaney, N.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    The increasing demand for water, energy, and food is leading to unsustainable groundwater and surface water exploitation. As a result, the human interactions with the environment, through alteration of land and water resources dynamics, need to be reflected in hydrologic and land surface models (LSMs). Advancements in representing human-water dynamics still leave challenges related to the lack of water use data, water allocation algorithms, and modeling scales. This leads to an over-simplistic representation of human water use in large-scale models; this is in turn leads to an inability to capture extreme events signatures and to provide reliable information at stakeholder-level spatial scales. The emergence of hyper-resolution models allows one to address these challenges by simulating the hydrological processes and interactions with the human impacts at field scales. We integrated human-water dynamics into HydroBlocks - a hyper-resolution, field-scale resolving LSM. HydroBlocks explicitly solves the field-scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs); and its HRU-based model parallelization allows computationally efficient long-term simulations as well as ensemble predictions. The implemented human-water dynamics include groundwater and surface water abstraction to meet agricultural, domestic and industrial water demands. Furthermore, a supply-demand water allocation scheme based on relative costs helps to determine sectoral water use requirements and tradeoffs. A set of HydroBlocks simulations over the Midwest United States (daily, at 30-m spatial resolution for 30 years) are used to quantify the irrigation impacts on water availability. The model captures large reductions in total soil moisture and water table levels, as well as spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and runoff peaks, with their intensity related to the adopted water management strategy. By incorporating human-water dynamics in

  13. Transport coefficients from SU(3) Polyakov linear-σ model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tawfik, A.; Diab, A.

    2015-01-01

    In the mean field approximation, the grand potential of SU(3) Polyakov linear-σ model (PLSM) is analyzed for the order parameter of the light and strange chiral phase-transitions, σ l and σ s , respectively, and for the deconfinement order parameters φ and φ*. Furthermore, the subtracted condensate Δ l,s and the chiral order-parameters M b are compared with lattice QCD calculations. By using the dynamical quasiparticle model (DQPM), which can be considered as a system of noninteracting massive quasiparticles, we have evaluated the decay width and the relaxation time of quarks and gluons. In the framework of LSM and with Polyakov loop corrections included, the interaction measure Δ/T 4 , the specific heat c v and speed of sound squared c s 2 have been determined, as well as the temperature dependence of the normalized quark number density n q /T 3 and the quark number susceptibilities χ q /T 2 at various values of the baryon chemical potential. The electric and heat conductivity, σ e and κ, and the bulk and shear viscosities normalized to the thermal entropy, ζ/s and η/s, are compared with available results of lattice QCD calculations.

  14. Theoretical models for designing a 220-GHz folded waveguide backward wave oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Jin-Chi; Chen Huai-Bi; Hu Lin-Lin; Ma Guo-Wu; Chen Hong-Bin; Jin Xiao

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the basic equations of beam-wave interaction for designing the 220 GHz folded waveguide (FW) backward wave oscillator (BWO) are described. On the whole, these equations are mainly classified into small signal model (SSM), large signal model (LSM), and simplified small signal model (SSSM). Using these linear and nonlinear one-dimensional (1D) models, the oscillation characteristics of the FW BWO of a given configuration of slow wave structure (SWS) can be calculated by numerical iteration algorithm, which is more time efficient than three-dimensional (3D) particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation. The SSSM expressed by analytical formulas is innovatively derived for determining the initial values of the FW SWS conveniently. The dispersion characteristics of the FW are obtained by equivalent circuit analysis. The space charge effect, the end reflection effect, the lossy wall effect, and the relativistic effect are all considered in our models to offer more accurate results. The design process of the FW BWO tube with output power of watt scale in a frequency range between 215 GHz and 225 GHz based on these 1D models is demonstrated. The 3D PIC method is adopted to verify the theoretical design results, which shows that they are in good agreement with each other. (paper)

  15. How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France? A generic modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil Laanaia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of adaptation strategies of agriculture and forestry to climate change is conditioned by the knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the vegetation cycle and of the associated uncertainties. Using the same generic Land Surface Model (LSM to simulate the response of various vegetation types is more straightforward than using several specialized crop and forestry models, as model implementation differences are difficult to assess. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of a LSM to address this issue. Using the SURFEX (“Surface Externalisée” modeling platform, we produced and analyzed 150-yr (1950–2100 simulations of the biomass of four vegetation types (rainfed straw cereals, rainfed grasslands, broadleaf and needleleaf forests and of the soil water content associated to each of these vegetation types over France. Statistical methods were used to quantify the impact of climate change on simulated phenological dates. The duration of soil moisture stress periods increases everywhere in France, especially for grasslands with, on average, an increase of 9 days per year in near-future (NF conditions and 36 days per year in distant-future (DF conditions. For all the vegetation types, leaf onset and the annual maximum LAI occur earlier. For straw cereals in the Languedoc-Provence-Corsica area, NF leaf onset occurs 18 days earlier and 37 days earlier in DF conditions, on average. On the other hand, local discrepancies are simulated for the senescence period (e.g. earlier in western and southern France for broadleaf forests, slightly later in mountainous areas of eastern France for both NF and DF. Changes in phenological dates are more uncertain in DF than in NF conditions in relation to differences in climate models, especially for forests. Finally, it is shown that while changes in leaf onset are mainly driven by air temperature, longer soil moisture stress periods trigger earlier leaf senescence

  16. Plasma-Sprayed LSM Protective Coating on Metallic Interconnect of SOFC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Wei Chen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a (La0.8Sr0.20.98MnO3 protective layer was prepared on the C276, Crofer22 APU, SUS304, and SUS430 alloys by the atmospheric plasma spraying technique (APS. The oxidation behavior and electrical property of these metal alloys have been investigated isothermally at 800 °C in air for up to 300 h. Results showed that the ferritic steels transform into MnCr2O4 spinels and a Cr2O3 layer during isothermal oxidation. The C276 alloy formed NiCr2O4 and FeCr2O4 layers; these are protective and act as an effective barrier against chromium migration into the outer oxide layer, and the alloy demonstrated good oxidation resistance and a reasonable match to the coefficient of thermal expansion of the substrate and a low-oxide scale area-specific resistance. The ASR effects on the formation of oxide scale have been investigated, and the ASR of coated samples was below 0.024 Ω·cm2. It has good electrical conductivity for SOFC in long-term use.

  17. Reversible Decomposition of Secondary Phases in BaO Infiltrated LSM Electrodes-Polarization Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Traulsen, Marie Lund; McIntyre, Melissa D.; Norrman, Kion

    2016-01-01

    and Raman spectroscopy reveal the formation of a secondary phase, Ba3Mn2O8, on the electrode. During the in operando Raman investigation of the BaO-infiltrated La0.85Sr0.15MnO3±δ electrodes, experiments are performed at 300 and 500 °C with oxygen partial pressure 0.1 atm and with −1 or +1 V Applied...... for the reduced polarization resistance observed at open Circuit voltage (OCV) in an oxygen containing atmosphere. Furthermore, the results illustrate the dramatic differences between the electrode surface composition at OCV and during cathodic polarization. Overall, the results highlight the dynamic interactions...... between minor secondary phases and applied potential, a general effect that may be important for the high-performance frequently observed with ceramic electrodes prepared by infiltration....

  18. Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

  19. Statistical analysis and ANN modeling for predicting hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios: the example of a small Mediterranean agro-watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Dokou, Zoi; Karatzas, George P

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to create a modeling management tool for the simulation of extreme flow events under current and future climatic conditions. This tool is a combination of different components and can be applied in complex hydrogeological river basins, where frequent flood and drought phenomena occur. The first component is the statistical analysis of the available hydro-meteorological data. Specifically, principal components analysis was performed in order to quantify the importance of the hydro-meteorological parameters that affect the generation of extreme events. The second component is a prediction-forecasting artificial neural network (ANN) model that simulates, accurately and efficiently, river flow on an hourly basis. This model is based on a methodology that attempts to resolve a very difficult problem related to the accurate estimation of extreme flows. For this purpose, the available measurements (5 years of hourly data) were divided in two subsets: one for the dry and one for the wet periods of the hydrological year. This way, two ANNs were created, trained, tested and validated for a complex Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece. As part of the second management component a statistical downscaling tool was used for the creation of meteorological data according to the higher and lower emission climate change scenarios A2 and B1. These data are used as input in the ANN for the forecasting of river flow for the next two decades. The final component is the application of a meteorological index on the measured and forecasted precipitation and flow data, in order to assess the severity and duration of extreme events. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Value versus Accuracy: application of seasonal forecasts to a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.; Badr, H. S.; Shukla, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    The unpredictable nature of precipitation within the East African (EA) region makes it one of the most vulnerable, food insecure regions in the world. There is a vital need for forecasts to inform decision makers, both local and regional, and to help formulate the region's climate change adaptation strategies. Here, we present a suite of different seasonal forecast models, both statistical and dynamical, for the EA region. Objective regionalization is performed for EA on the basis of interannual variability in precipitation in both observations and models. This regionalization is applied as the basis for calculating a number of standard skill scores to evaluate each model's forecast accuracy. A dynamically linked Land Surface Model (LSM) is then applied to determine forecasted flows, which drive the Sudanese Hydroeconomic Optimization Model (SHOM). SHOM combines hydrologic, agronomic and economic inputs to determine the optimal decisions that maximize economic benefits along the Sudanese Blue Nile. This modeling sequence is designed to derive the potential added value of information of each forecasting model to agriculture and hydropower management. A rank of each model's forecasting skill score along with its added value of information is analyzed in order compare the performance of each forecast. This research aims to improve understanding of how characteristics of accuracy, lead time, and uncertainty of seasonal forecasts influence their utility to water resources decision makers who utilize them.

  1. LIS-HYMAP coupled Hydrological Modeling in the Nile River Basin and the Greater Horn of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, H. C.; Getirana, A.; Policelli, F. S.

    2015-12-01

    Water scarcity and resources in Africa have been exacerbated by periodic droughts and floods. However, few studies show the quantitative analysis of water balance or basin-scale hydrological modeling in Northeast Africa. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) is implemented to simulate land surface processes in the Nile River Basin and the Greater Horn of Africa. In this context, the Noah land surface model (LSM) and the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HYMAP) are used to reproduce the water budget and surface water (rivers and floodplains) dynamics in that region. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) meteorological dataset is used to force the system . Due to the unavailability of recent ground-based observations, satellite data are considered to evaluate first model outputs. Water levels at 10 Envisat virtual stations and water discharges at a gauging station are used to provide model performance coefficients (e.g. Nash-Sutcliffe, delay index, relative error). We also compare the spatial and temporal variations of flooded areas from the model with the Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and the Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF)'s MEaSUREs Wetland data. Finally, we estimate surface water storage variations using a hypsographic curve approach with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) topographic data and evaluate the model-derived water storage changes in both river and floodplain. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using LIS-HYMAP coupled modeling to support seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes.

  2. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  3. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

    2018-06-01

    Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent

  4. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface–hydrology models in cold regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sapriza-Azuri

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs, which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme, as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire – Surface and Hydrology modelling system, to (1 characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2 assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3 develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to

  5. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and

  6. A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Roux

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available A spatially distributed hydrological model, dedicated to flood simulation, is developed on the basis of physical process representation (infiltration, overland flow, channel routing. Estimation of model parameters requires data concerning topography, soil properties, vegetation and land use. Four parameters are calibrated for the entire catchment using one flood event. Model sensitivity to individual parameters is assessed using Monte-Carlo simulations. Results of this sensitivity analysis with a criterion based on the Nash efficiency coefficient and the error of peak time and runoff are used to calibrate the model. This procedure is tested on the Gardon d'Anduze catchment, located in the Mediterranean zone of southern France. A first validation is conducted using three flood events with different hydrometeorological characteristics. This sensitivity analysis along with validation tests illustrates the predictive capability of the model and points out the possible improvements on the model's structure and parameterization for flash flood forecasting, especially in ungauged basins. Concerning the model structure, results show that water transfer through the subsurface zone also contributes to the hydrograph response to an extreme event, especially during the recession period. Maps of soil saturation emphasize the impact of rainfall and soil properties variability on these dynamics. Adding a subsurface flow component in the simulation also greatly impacts the spatial distribution of soil saturation and shows the importance of the drainage network. Measures of such distributed variables would help discriminating between different possible model structures.

  7. Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Hoshin V.; Kling, Harald; Yilmaz, Koray K.; Martinez-Baquero, Guillermo F.

    2009-01-01

    The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

  8. Selection of soil hydraulic properties in a land surface model using remotely-sensed soil moisture and surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, P. J.; Small, E. E.; Gutmann, E. D.

    2013-12-01

    Synoptic-scale weather is heavily influenced by latent and sensible heating from the land surface. The partitioning of available energy between these two fluxes as well as the distribution of moisture throughout the soil column is controlled by a unique set of soil hydraulic properties (SHPs) at every location. Weather prediction systems, which use coupled land surface and atmospheric models in their forecasts, must therefore be parameterized with estimates of SHPs. Currently, land surface models (LSMs) obtain SHP values by assuming a correlation exists between SHPs and the soil type, which the USDA maps in 12 classes. This method is spurious because texture is only one control of many that affects SHPs. Alternatively, SHPs can be obtained by calibrating them within the framework of an LSM. Because remotely-sensed data have the potential for continent-wide application, there is a critical need to understand their specific role in calibration efforts and the extent to which such calibrated SHPs can improve model simulations. This study focuses on SHP calibration with soil moisture content (SMC) and land surface temperature (Ts), data that are available from the SMOS and MODIS satellite missions, respectively. The scientific goals of this study are: (1) What is the model performance tradeoff between weighting SMC and Ts differently during the calibration process? (2) What can the tradeoff between calibration using in-situ and remotely-sensed SMC reveal about SHP scaling? (3) How are these relationships influenced by climatic regime and vegetation type? (4) To what extent can calibrated SHPs improve model performance over that of texture-based SHPs? Model calibrations are carried out within the framework of the Noah LSM using the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm in five different climatic regimes. At each site, a five-dimensional parameter space of SHPs is searched to find the location that minimizes the difference between observed and

  9. Reconstructing a lost Eocene Paradise, Part II: On the utility of dynamic global vegetation models in pre-Quaternary climate studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, Cindy J.; Sloan, Lisa C.

    2006-02-01

    Models that allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate provide a unique method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in pre-Quaternary time periods. In this paper, we consider how Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), which have been developed for simulations with present day climate, can be used for paleoclimate studies. We begin with a series of tests in the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM)-DGVM with Eocene geography to examine (1) the effect of removing C 4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO 2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. The tests were designed to highlight some of the challenges of using these models and prompt discussion of possible improvements. We discuss how lack of detail in model boundary conditions, uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, and inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM can affect interpretation of model results. However, we also review a number of DGVM features that can facilitate understanding of past climates and offer suggestions for improving paleo-DGVM studies.

  10. The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggioni, V.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Reichle, R. H.

    2013-01-01

    The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

  11. Improvement, calibration and validation of a distributed hydrological model over France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Quintana Seguí

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The hydrometeorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM computes water and energy budgets on the land surface and riverflows and the level of several aquifers at the scale of France. SIM is composed of a meteorological analysis system (SAFRAN, a land surface model (ISBA, and a hydrogeological model (MODCOU. In this study, an exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity at saturation is introduced to the model and its impact analysed. It is also studied how calibration modifies the performance of the model. A very simple method of calibration is implemented and applied to the parameters of hydraulic conductivity and subgrid runoff. The study shows that a better description of the hydraulic conductivity of the soil is important to simulate more realistic discharges. It also shows that the calibrated model is more robust than the original SIM. In fact, the calibration mainly affects the processes related to the dynamics of the flow (drainage and runoff, and the rest of relevant processes (like evaporation remain stable. It is also proven that it is only worth introducing the new empirical parameterization of hydraulic conductivity if it is accompanied by a calibration of its parameters, otherwise the simulations can be degraded. In conclusion, it is shown that the new parameterization is necessary to obtain good simulations. Calibration is a tool that must be used to improve the performance of distributed models like SIM that have some empirical parameters.

  12. Real-time management of a multipurpose water reservoir with a heteroscedastic inflow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

    2009-10-01

    Stochastic dynamic programming has been extensively used as a method for designing optimal regulation policies for water reservoirs. However, the potential of this method is dramatically reduced by its computational burden, which often forces to introduce strong approximations in the model of the system, especially in the description of the reservoir inflow. In this paper, an approach to partially remedy this problem is proposed and applied to a real world case study. It foresees solving the management problem on-line, using a reduced model of the system and the inflow forecast provided by a dynamic model. By doing so, all the hydrometeorological information that is available in real-time is fully exploited. The model here proposed for the inflow forecasting is a nonlinear, heteroscedastic model that provides both the expected value and the standard deviation of the inflow through dynamic relations. The effectiveness of such model for the purpose of the reservoir regulation is evaluated through simulation and comparison with the results provided by conventional homoscedastic inflow models.

  13. Development of river flood model in lower reach of urbanized river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimura, Kouhei; Tajima, Yoshimitsu; Sanuki, Hiroshi; Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Sato, Shinji; Lee, SungAe; Furumai, Hiroaki; Koike, Toshio

    2014-05-01

    Japan, with its natural mountainous landscape, has demographic feature that population is concentrated in lower reach of elevation close to the coast, and therefore flood damage with large socio-economic value tends to occur in low-lying region. Modeling of river flood in such low-lying urbanized river basin is complex due to the following reasons. In upstream it has been experienced urbanization, which changed land covers from natural forest or agricultural fields to residential or industrial area. Hence rate of infiltration and runoff are quite different from natural hydrological settings. In downstream, paved covers and construct of sewerage system in urbanized areas affect direct discharges and it enhances higher and faster flood peak arrival. Also tidal effect from river mouth strongly affects water levels in rivers, which must be taken into account. We develop an integrated river flood model in lower reach of urbanized areas to be able to address above described complex feature, by integrating model components: LSM coupled distributed hydrological model that models anthropogenic influence on river discharges to downstream; urban hydrological model that simulates run off response in urbanized areas; Saint Venant's equation approximated river model that integrates upstream and urban hydrological models with considering tidal effect from downstream. These features are integrated in a common modeling framework so that model interaction can be directly performed. The model is applied to the Tsurumi river basin, urbanized low-lying river basin in Yokohama and model results show that it can simulate water levels in rivers with acceptable model errors. Furthermore the model is able to install miscellaneous water planning constructs, such as runoff reduction pond in urbanized area, flood control field along the river channel, levee, etc. This can be a useful tool to investigate cost performance of hypothetical water management plan against impact of climate change in

  14. Techniques for Improved Retrospective Fine-scale Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleim-Xiu Land-Surface model (PX LSM) was developed for retrospective meteorological simulations to drive chemical transport models. One of the key features of the PX LSM is the indirect soil moisture and temperature nudging. The idea is to provide a three hourly 2-m temperature ...

  15. Mathematical modeling analysis of regenerative solid oxide fuel cells in switching mode conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xinfang; Xue, Xingjian

    A 2D transient mathematical model is developed for regenerative solid oxide cells operated in both SOFC mode and SOEC mode. The steady state performance of the model is validated using experimental results of in-house prepared NiO-YSZ/YSZ/LSM cell under different operating temperatures. The model is employed to investigate complicated multi-physics processes during the transient process of mode switching. Simulation results indicate that the trend of internal parameter distributions, including H 2/O 2/H 2O and ionic potentials, flip when the operating cell is switched from one mode to another. However, the electronic potential shows different behaviors. At H 2 electrode, electronic potential keeps at zero voltage level, while at O 2 electrode, it increases from a relatively low level in SOFC mode to a relatively high level in SOEC mode. Transient results also show that an overshooting phenomenon occurs for mass fraction distribution of water vapor at H 2 side when the operating cell switches from SOFC mode to SOEC mode. The mass fractions of O 2 and H 2 as well as charge (electrons and ions) potentials may quickly follow the operating mode changes without over-shootings. The simulation results facilitate the internal mechanism understanding for regenerative SOFCs.

  16. Impact of model structure and parameterization on Penman-Monteith type evaporation models

    KAUST Repository

    Ershadi, A.

    2015-04-12

    sites, where the simpler aerodynamic resistance approach of Mu et al. (2011) showed improved performance. Overall, the results illustrate the sensitivity of Penman-Monteith type models to model structure, parameterization choice and biome type. A particular challenge in flux estimation relates to developing robust and broadly applicable model formulations. With many choices available for use, providing guidance on the most appropriate scheme to employ is required to advance approaches for routine global scale flux estimates, undertake hydrometeorological assessments or develop hydrological forecasting tools, amongst many other applications. In such cases, a multi-model ensemble or biome-specific tiled evaporation product may be an appropriate solution, given the inherent variability in model and parameterization choice that is observed within single product estimates.

  17. A Novel Error Model of Optical Systems and an On-Orbit Calibration Method for Star Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Wang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the on-orbit measurement accuracy of star sensors, the effects of image-plane rotary error, image-plane tilt error and distortions of optical systems resulting from the on-orbit thermal environment were studied in this paper. Since these issues will affect the precision of star image point positions, in this paper, a novel measurement error model based on the traditional error model is explored. Due to the orthonormal characteristics of image-plane rotary-tilt errors and the strong nonlinearity among these error parameters, it is difficult to calibrate all the parameters simultaneously. To solve this difficulty, for the new error model, a modified two-step calibration method based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF and Least Square Methods (LSM is presented. The former one is used to calibrate the main point drift, focal length error and distortions of optical systems while the latter estimates the image-plane rotary-tilt errors. With this calibration method, the precision of star image point position influenced by the above errors is greatly improved from 15.42% to 1.389%. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate that the presented measurement error model for star sensors has higher precision. Moreover, the proposed two-step method can effectively calibrate model error parameters, and the calibration precision of on-orbit star sensors is also improved obviously.

  18. Evaluation of NWP-based Satellite Precipitation Error Correction with Near-Real-Time Model Products and Flood-inducing Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Schwartz, C. S.

    2017-12-01

    Satellite precipitation products tend to have significant biases over complex terrain. Our research investigates a statistical approach for satellite precipitation adjustment based solely on numerical weather simulations. This approach has been evaluated in two mid-latitude (Zhang et al. 2013*1, Zhang et al. 2016*2) and three topical mountainous regions by using the WRF model to adjust two high-resolution satellite products i) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) and ii) Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP). Results show the adjustment effectively reduces the satellite underestimation of high rain rates, which provides a solid proof-of-concept for continuing research of NWP-based satellite correction. In this study we investigate the feasibility of using NCAR Real-time Ensemble Forecasts*3 for adjusting near-real-time satellite precipitation datasets over complex terrain areas in the Continental United States (CONUS) such as Olympic Peninsula, California coastal mountain ranges, Rocky Mountains and South Appalachians. The research will focus on flood-inducing storms occurred from May 2015 to December 2016 and four satellite precipitation products (CMORPH, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CCS and IMERG). The error correction performance evaluation will be based on comparisons against the gauge-adjusted Stage IV precipitation data. *1 Zhang, Xinxuan, et al. "Using NWP simulations in satellite rainfall estimation of heavy precipitation events over mountainous areas." Journal of Hydrometeorology 14.6 (2013): 1844-1858. *2 Zhang, Xinxuan, et al. "Hydrologic Evaluation of NWP-Adjusted CMORPH Estimates of Hurricane-Induced Precipitation in the Southern Appalachians." Journal of Hydrometeorology 17.4 (2016): 1087-1099. *3 Schwartz, Craig S., et al. "NCAR's experimental real-time convection-allowing ensemble prediction system." Weather and Forecasting 30.6 (2015): 1645-1654.

  19. Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

  20. Towards a probabilistic model for predicting ship besetting in ice in Arctic waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, Shanshan; Zhang, Di; Montewka, Jakub; Yan, Xinping; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Recently, the melting of sea ice due to global warming has made it possible for merchant ships to navigate through Arctic Waters. However, Arctic Marine Transportation System remains a very demanding, dynamic and complex system due to challenging hydro-meteorological conditions, poorly charted waters and remoteness of the area resulting in lack of appropriate response capacity in case of emergency. In order to ensure a proper safety level for operations such as ship transit within the area, a risk analysis should be carried out, where the relevant factors pertaining to a given operation are defined and organized in a model. Such a model can assist onshore managers or ships’ crews in planning and conducting an actual sea passage through Arctic waters. However, research in this domain is scarce, mainly due to lack of data. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of a dataset and expert judgment to determine the risk influencing factors and develop a probabilistic model for a ship besetting in ice along the Northeast Passage. For that purpose, we adopt Bayesian belief Networks (BBNs), due to their predominant feature of reasoning under uncertainty and their ability to accommodate data from various sources. The obtained BBN model has been validated showing good agreement with available state-of-the-art models, and providing good understanding of the analyzed phenomena.

  1. Development of a methodology for probable maximum precipitation estimation over the American River watershed using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Elcin

    physically possible upper limits of precipitation due to climate change. The simulation results indicate that the meridional shift in atmospheric conditions is the optimum method to determine maximum precipitation in consideration of cost and efficiency. Finally, exceedance probability analyses of the model results of 42 historical extreme precipitation events demonstrate that the 72-hr basin averaged probable maximum precipitation is 21.72 inches for the exceedance probability of 0.5 percent. On the other hand, the current operational PMP estimation for the American River Watershed is 28.57 inches as published in the hydrometeorological report no. 59 and a previous PMP value was 31.48 inches as published in the hydrometeorological report no. 36. According to the exceedance probability analyses of this proposed method, the exceedance probabilities of these two estimations correspond to 0.036 percent and 0.011 percent, respectively.

  2. Large-scale hydrological model river storage and discharge correction using a satellite altimetry-based discharge product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Charlotte Marie; Paris, Adrien; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Boone, Aaron; Calmant, Stéphane; Garambois, Pierre-André; Santos da Silva, Joecila

    2018-04-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to study the continental part of the water cycle. However, even though their accuracy is increasing, inherent model uncertainties can not be avoided. In the meantime, remotely sensed observations of the continental water cycle variables such as soil moisture, lakes and river elevations are more frequent and accurate. Therefore, those two different types of information can be combined, using data assimilation techniques to reduce a model's uncertainties in its state variables or/and in its input parameters. The objective of this study is to present a data assimilation platform that assimilates into the large-scale ISBA-CTRIP LSM a punctual river discharge product, derived from ENVISAT nadir altimeter water elevation measurements and rating curves, over the whole Amazon basin. To deal with the scale difference between the model and the observation, the study also presents an initial development for a localization treatment that allows one to limit the impact of observations to areas close to the observation and in the same hydrological network. This assimilation platform is based on the ensemble Kalman filter and can correct either the CTRIP river water storage or the discharge. Root mean square error (RMSE) compared to gauge discharges is globally reduced until 21 % and at Óbidos, near the outlet, RMSE is reduced by up to 52 % compared to ENVISAT-based discharge. Finally, it is shown that localization improves results along the main tributaries.

  3. Automatic orientation and 3D modelling from markerless rock art imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerma, J. L.; Navarro, S.; Cabrelles, M.; Seguí, A. E.; Hernández, D.

    2013-02-01

    This paper investigates the use of two detectors and descriptors on image pyramids for automatic image orientation and generation of 3D models. The detectors and descriptors replace manual measurements and are used to detect, extract and match features across multiple imagery. The Scale-Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) and the Speeded Up Robust Features (SURF) will be assessed based on speed, number of features, matched features, and precision in image and object space depending on the adopted hierarchical matching scheme. The influence of applying in addition Area Based Matching (ABM) with normalised cross-correlation (NCC) and least squares matching (LSM) is also investigated. The pipeline makes use of photogrammetric and computer vision algorithms aiming minimum interaction and maximum accuracy from a calibrated camera. Both the exterior orientation parameters and the 3D coordinates in object space are sequentially estimated combining relative orientation, single space resection and bundle adjustment. The fully automatic image-based pipeline presented herein to automate the image orientation step of a sequence of terrestrial markerless imagery is compared with manual bundle block adjustment and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) which serves as ground truth. The benefits of applying ABM after FBM will be assessed both in image and object space for the 3D modelling of a complex rock art shelter.

  4. Regularized plane-wave least-squares Kirchhoff migration

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Xin

    2013-09-22

    A Kirchhoff least-squares migration (LSM) is developed in the prestack plane-wave domain to increase the quality of migration images. A regularization term is included that accounts for mispositioning of reflectors due to errors in the velocity model. Both synthetic and field results show that: 1) LSM with a reflectivity model common for all the plane-wave gathers provides the best image when the migration velocity model is accurate, but it is more sensitive to the velocity errors, 2) the regularized plane-wave LSM is more robust in the presence of velocity errors, and 3) LSM achieves both computational and IO saving by plane-wave encoding compared to shot-domain LSM for the models tested.

  5. Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

  6. Flood forecasting using a fully distributed model: application of the TOPKAPI model to the Upper Xixian Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Liu

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available TOPKAPI is a physically-based, fully distributed hydrological model with a simple and parsimonious parameterisation. The original TOPKAPI is structured around five modules that represent evapotranspiration, snowmelt, soil water, surface water and channel water, respectively. Percolation to deep soil layers was ignored in the old version of the TOPKAPI model since it was not important in the basins to which the model was originally applied. Based on published literature, this study developed a new version of the TOPKAPI model, in which the new modules of interception, infiltration, percolation, groundwater flow and lake/reservoir routing are included. This paper presents an application study that makes a first attempt to derive information from public domains through the internet on the topography, soil and land use types for a case study Chinese catchment - the Upper Xixian catchment in Huaihe River with an area of about 10000 km2, and apply a new version of TOPKAPI to the catchment for flood simulation. A model parameter value adjustment was performed using six months of the 1998 dataset. Calibration did not use a curve fitting process, but was chiefly based upon moderate variations of parameter values from those estimated on physical grounds, as is common in traditional calibration. The hydrometeorological dataset of 2002 was then used to validate the model, both against the outlet discharge as well as at an internal gauging station. Finally, to complete the model performance analysis, parameter uncertainty and its effects on predictive uncertainty were also assessed by estimating a posterior parameter probability density via Bayesian inference.

  7. Multi-site evaluation of the JULES land surface model using global and local data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Slevin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the ability of the JULES land surface model (LSM to simulate photosynthesis using local and global data sets at 12 FLUXNET sites. Model parameters include site-specific (local values for each flux tower site and the default parameters used in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM climate model. Firstly, gross primary productivity (GPP estimates from driving JULES with data derived from local site measurements were compared to observations from the FLUXNET network. When using local data, the model is biased with total annual GPP underestimated by 16% across all sites compared to observations. Secondly, GPP estimates from driving JULES with data derived from global parameter and atmospheric reanalysis (on scales of 100 km or so were compared to FLUXNET observations. It was found that model performance decreases further, with total annual GPP underestimated by 30% across all sites compared to observations. When JULES was driven using local parameters and global meteorological data, it was shown that global data could be used in place of FLUXNET data with a 7% reduction in total annual simulated GPP. Thirdly, the global meteorological data sets, WFDEI and PRINCETON, were compared to local data to find that the WFDEI data set more closely matches the local meteorological measurements (FLUXNET. Finally, the JULES phenology model was tested by comparing results from simulations using the default phenology model to those forced with the remote sensing product MODIS leaf area index (LAI. Forcing the model with daily satellite LAI results in only small improvements in predicted GPP at a small number of sites, compared to using the default phenology model.

  8. Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The semi-arid regions of Central Asia crucially depend on the water resources supplied by the mountainous areas of the Tien Shan and Pamir and Altai mountains. During the summer months the snow-melt- and glacier-melt-dominated river discharge originating in the mountains provides the main water resource available for agricultural production, but also for storage in reservoirs for energy generation during the winter months. Thus a reliable seasonal forecast of the water resources is crucial for sustainable management and planning of water resources. In fact, seasonal forecasts are mandatory tasks of all national hydro-meteorological services in the region. In order to support the operational seasonal forecast procedures of hydro-meteorological services, this study aims to develop a generic tool for deriving statistical forecast models of seasonal river discharge based solely on observational records. The generic model structure is kept as simple as possible in order to be driven by meteorological and hydrological data readily available at the hydro-meteorological services, and to be applicable for all catchments in the region. As snow melt dominates summer runoff, the main meteorological predictors for the forecast models are monthly values of winter precipitation and temperature, satellite-based snow cover data, and antecedent discharge. This basic predictor set was further extended by multi-monthly means of the individual predictors, as well as composites of the predictors. Forecast models are derived based on these predictors as linear combinations of up to four predictors. A user-selectable number of the best models is extracted automatically by the developed model fitting algorithm, which includes a test for robustness by a leave-one-out cross-validation. Based on the cross-validation the predictive uncertainty was quantified for every prediction model. Forecasts of the mean seasonal discharge of the period April to September are derived

  9. Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apel, Heiko; Abdykerimova, Zharkinay; Agalhanova, Marina; Baimaganbetov, Azamat; Gavrilenko, Nadejda; Gerlitz, Lars; Kalashnikova, Olga; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Gafurov, Abror

    2018-04-01

    The semi-arid regions of Central Asia crucially depend on the water resources supplied by the mountainous areas of the Tien Shan and Pamir and Altai mountains. During the summer months the snow-melt- and glacier-melt-dominated river discharge originating in the mountains provides the main water resource available for agricultural production, but also for storage in reservoirs for energy generation during the winter months. Thus a reliable seasonal forecast of the water resources is crucial for sustainable management and planning of water resources. In fact, seasonal forecasts are mandatory tasks of all national hydro-meteorological services in the region. In order to support the operational seasonal forecast procedures of hydro-meteorological services, this study aims to develop a generic tool for deriving statistical forecast models of seasonal river discharge based solely on observational records. The generic model structure is kept as simple as possible in order to be driven by meteorological and hydrological data readily available at the hydro-meteorological services, and to be applicable for all catchments in the region. As snow melt dominates summer runoff, the main meteorological predictors for the forecast models are monthly values of winter precipitation and temperature, satellite-based snow cover data, and antecedent discharge. This basic predictor set was further extended by multi-monthly means of the individual predictors, as well as composites of the predictors. Forecast models are derived based on these predictors as linear combinations of up to four predictors. A user-selectable number of the best models is extracted automatically by the developed model fitting algorithm, which includes a test for robustness by a leave-one-out cross-validation. Based on the cross-validation the predictive uncertainty was quantified for every prediction model. Forecasts of the mean seasonal discharge of the period April to September are derived every month from

  10. Implementation of 5-layer thermal diffusion scheme in weather research and forecasting model with Intel Many Integrated Cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Melin; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen H.

    2014-10-01

    For weather forecasting and research, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been developed, consisting of several components such as dynamic solvers and physical simulation modules. WRF includes several Land- Surface Models (LSMs). The LSMs use atmospheric information, the radiative and precipitation forcing from the surface layer scheme, the radiation scheme, and the microphysics/convective scheme all together with the land's state variables and land-surface properties, to provide heat and moisture fluxes over land and sea-ice points. The WRF 5-layer thermal diffusion simulation is an LSM based on the MM5 5-layer soil temperature model with an energy budget that includes radiation, sensible, and latent heat flux. The WRF LSMs are very suitable for massively parallel computation as there are no interactions among horizontal grid points. The features, efficient parallelization and vectorization essentials, of Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) architecture allow us to optimize this WRF 5-layer thermal diffusion scheme. In this work, we present the results of the computing performance on this scheme with Intel MIC architecture. Our results show that the MIC-based optimization improved the performance of the first version of multi-threaded code on Xeon Phi 5110P by a factor of 2.1x. Accordingly, the same CPU-based optimizations improved the performance on Intel Xeon E5- 2603 by a factor of 1.6x as compared to the first version of multi-threaded code.

  11. Preparation of the Digital Elevation Model for Orthophoto CR Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Švec, Z.; Pavelka, K.

    2016-06-01

    The Orthophoto CR is produced in co-operation with the Land Survey Office and the Military Geographical and Hydrometeorological Office. The product serves to ensure a defence of the state, integrated crisis management, civilian tasks in support of the state administration and the local self-government of the Czech Republic as well. It covers the whole area of the Republic and for ensuring its up-to-datedness is reproduced in the biennial period. As the project is countrywide, it keeps the project within the same parameters in urban and rural areas as well. Due to economic reasons it cańt be produced as a true ortophoto because it requires large side and forward overlaps of the aerial photographs and a preparation of the digital surface model instead of the digital terrain model. Use of DTM without some objects of DSM for orthogonalization purposes cause undesirable image deformations in the Orthophoto. There are a few data sets available for forming a suitable elevation model. The principal source should represent DTMs made from data acquired by the airborne laser scanning of the entire area of the Czech Republic that was carried out in the years 2009-2013, the DMR4G in the grid form and the DMR5G in TIN form respectively. It can be replenished by some vector objects (bridges, dams, etc.) taken from the geographic base data of the Czech Republic or obtained by new stereo plotting. It has to be taken into account that the option of applying DSM made from image correlation is also available. The article focuses on the possibilities of DTM supplement for ortogonalization. It looks back to the recent transition from grid to hybrid elevation models, problems that occurred, its solution and getting some practical remarks. Afterwards it assesses the current state and deals with the options for updating the model. Some accuracy analysis are included.

  12. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  13. PREPARATION OF THE DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL FOR ORTHOPHOTO CR PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Švec

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Orthophoto CR is produced in co-operation with the Land Survey Office and the Military Geographical and Hydrometeorological Office. The product serves to ensure a defence of the state, integrated crisis management, civilian tasks in support of the state administration and the local self-government of the Czech Republic as well. It covers the whole area of the Republic and for ensuring its up-to-datedness is reproduced in the biennial period. As the project is countrywide, it keeps the project within the same parameters in urban and rural areas as well. Due to economic reasons it can´t be produced as a true ortophoto because it requires large side and forward overlaps of the aerial photographs and a preparation of the digital surface model instead of the digital terrain model. Use of DTM without some objects of DSM for orthogonalization purposes cause undesirable image deformations in the Orthophoto. There are a few data sets available for forming a suitable elevation model. The principal source should represent DTMs made from data acquired by the airborne laser scanning of the entire area of the Czech Republic that was carried out in the years 2009-2013, the DMR4G in the grid form and the DMR5G in TIN form respectively. It can be replenished by some vector objects (bridges, dams, etc. taken from the geographic base data of the Czech Republic or obtained by new stereo plotting. It has to be taken into account that the option of applying DSM made from image correlation is also available. The article focuses on the possibilities of DTM supplement for ortogonalization. It looks back to the recent transition from grid to hybrid elevation models, problems that occurred, its solution and getting some practical remarks. Afterwards it assesses the current state and deals with the options for updating the model. Some accuracy analysis are included.

  14. Modeling of transports of water and matter in landscape. Proceedings; Modellierung des Wasser- und Stofftransportes in grossen Einzugsgebieten. Beitraege

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bronstert, A.; Krysanova, V.; Schroeder, A.; Becker, A.; Bork, H.R. [eds.

    1998-04-01

    During recent years, the quantitative description of the water fluxes and the coupled transport of physical and chemical matter in the landscape has become steadily more and more important. The reasons for this are an increasing public awareness about the possible impacts of changes of land use, land cover, and of changes in regional and global climatic conditions together with a need for sound, multi-objective management of large river basins. The investigation areas of concern a usually much larger in extent than a typically sized hydrological investigation catchment. The tools primarily used in the quantification of the hydrological fluxes at the large scale are the so-called large-scale hydrological models. These models are comparatively new and still at the stage of development and improvement. The mentioned need for advanced large-scale hydrological models provided the reason for inviting scientists from German-speaking countries with experience in large-scale hydrological and hydro-meteorological models to exchange and discuss their modelling concepts and to identify research needs. The workshop was held at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) on 15 and 16 December 1997, and was jointly organised by PIK, the University of Potsdam and the Centre for Agriculture and Land Use Research (ZALF). The workshop was attended by over 40 scientists, of whom 19 gave a presentation. (orig.)

  15. Integrated Flood Forecast and Virtual Dam Operation System for Water Resources and Flood Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Ikoma, Eiji; Lawford, Peter; Oyanagi, Misa; Kanauchi, Shizu; Koudelova, Petra; Kitsuregawa, Masaru; Koike, Toshio

    2014-05-01

    While availability of hydrological- and hydrometeorological data shows growing tendency and advanced modeling techniques are emerging, such newly available data and advanced models may not always be applied in the field of decision-making. In this study we present an integrated system of ensemble streamflow forecast (ESP) and virtual dam simulator, which is designed to support river and dam manager's decision making. The system consists of three main functions: real time hydrological model, ESP model, and dam simulator model. In the real time model, the system simulates current condition of river basins, such as soil moisture and river discharges, using LSM coupled distributed hydrological model. The ESP model takes initial condition from the real time model's output and generates ESP, based on numerical weather prediction. The dam simulator model provides virtual dam operation and users can experience impact of dam control on remaining reservoir volume and downstream flood under the anticipated flood forecast. Thus the river and dam managers shall be able to evaluate benefit of priori dam release and flood risk reduction at the same time, on real time basis. Furthermore the system has been developed under the concept of data and models integration, and it is coupled with Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) - a Japanese national project for integrating and analyzing massive amount of observational and model data. Therefore it has advantage in direct use of miscellaneous data from point/radar-derived observation, numerical weather prediction output, to satellite imagery stored in data archive. Output of the system is accessible over the web interface, making information available with relative ease, e.g. from ordinary PC to mobile devices. We have been applying the system to the Upper Tone region, located northwest from Tokyo metropolitan area, and we show application example of the system in recent flood events caused by typhoons.

  16. Energy-Efficient and Environmentally Friendly Solid Oxide Membrane Electrolysis Process for Magnesium Oxide Reduction: Experiment and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Xiaofei; Pal, Uday B.; Powell, Adam C.

    2014-06-01

    This paper reports a solid oxide membrane (SOM) electrolysis experiment using an LSM(La0.8Sr0.2MnO3-δ)-Inconel inert anode current collector for production of magnesium and oxygen directly from magnesium oxide at 1423 K (1150 °C). The electrochemical performance of the SOM cell was evaluated by means of various electrochemical techniques including electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, potentiodynamic scan, and electrolysis. Electronic transference numbers of the flux were measured to assess the magnesium dissolution in the flux during SOM electrolysis. The effects of magnesium solubility in the flux on the current efficiency and the SOM stability during electrolysis are discussed. An inverse correlation between the electronic transference number of the flux and the current efficiency of the SOM electrolysis was observed. Based on the experimental results, a new equivalent circuit of the SOM electrolysis process is presented. A general electrochemical polarization model of SOM process for magnesium and oxygen gas production is developed, and the maximum allowable applied potential to avoid zirconia dissociation is calculated as well. The modeling results suggest that a high electronic resistance of the flux and a relatively low electronic resistance of SOM are required to achieve membrane stability, high current efficiency, and high production rates of magnesium and oxygen.

  17. Assessment of the Effects of Various Precipitation Forcings on Flood Forecasting Potential Using WRF-Hydro Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Fang, N. Z.

    2017-12-01

    A potential flood forecast system is under development for the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) in North Central of Texas using the WRF-Hydro model. The Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) is utilized as channel routing module to simulate streamflow. Model performance analysis was conducted based on three quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE): the North Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) rainfall, the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) QPE and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) quality-controlled stage IV estimates. Prior to hydrologic simulation, QPE performance is assessed on two time scales (daily and hourly) using the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) and Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) hourly products. The calibrated WRF-Hydro model was then evaluated by comparing the simulated against the USGS observed using various QPE products. The results imply that the NCEP stage IV estimates have the best accuracy among the three QPEs on both time scales, while the NLDAS rainfall performs poorly because of its coarse spatial resolution. Furthermore, precipitation bias demonstrates pronounced impact on flood forecasting skills, as the root mean squared errors are significantly reduced by replacing NLDAS rainfall with NCEP stage IV estimates. This study also demonstrates that accurate simulated results can be achieved when initial soil moisture values are well understood in the WRF-Hydro model. Future research effort will therefore be invested on incorporating data assimilation with focus on initial states of the soil properties for UTRB.

  18. Hydrological model application under data scarcity for multiple watersheds, Java Island, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanto

    2017-02-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Quality control procedures revealed inconsistencies between precipitation and streamflow with only five watersheds possessing data of suitable quality. Simulations and observations confirmed that both precipitation and streamflow variability increase eastward on the island and that rainfall-runoff response was most frequently dominated by baseflow, rather than surface runoff. The most sensitive VIC parameters were identified and then calibrated with an automatic calibration procedure. In the calibration period, model performance was generally deemed satisfactory with Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE between 0.31 to 0.89, whereas the validation period exhibited poorer performance than expected (0.07 < NSE < 0.79. This drop in performance was attributed to a combination of inconsistent data quality, hydrometeorological outliers during the validation period, and over-fitting parameters during the calibration period. The model indicated that direct runoff exhibits more spatial and temporal variability than both rainfall or baseflow, the latter being associated with variability of soil thickness.

  19. Numerical modeling of thermal regime in inland water bodies with field measurement data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gladskikh, D.; Sergeev, D.; Baydakov, G.; Soustova, I.; Troitskaya, Yu.

    2018-01-01

    Modification of the program complex LAKE, which is intended to compute the thermal regimes of inland water bodies, and the results of its validation in accordance with the parameters of lake part of Gorky water reservoir are reviewed in the research. The modification caused changing the procedure of input temperature profile assignment and parameterization of surface stress on air-water boundary in accordance with the consideration of wind influence on mixing process. Also the innovation consists in combined methods of gathering meteorological parameters from files of global meteorological reanalysis and data of hydrometeorological station. Temperature profiles carried out with CTD-probe during expeditions in the period 2014-2017 were used for validation of the model. The comparison between the real data and the numerical results and its assessment based on time and temperature dependences in control points, correspondence of the forms of the profiles and standard deviation for all performed realizations are provided. It is demonstrated that the model reproduces the results of field measurement data for all observed conditions and seasons. The numerical results for the regimes with strong mixing are in the best quantitative and qualitative agreement with the real profiles. The accuracy of the forecast for the ones with strong stratification near the surface is lower but all specificities of the forms are correctly reproduced.

  20. Performance of the general circulation models in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasian, Mohammadsadegh; Moghim, Sanaz; Abrishamchi, Ahmad

    2018-03-01

    General Circulation Models (GCMs) are advanced tools for impact assessment and climate change studies. Previous studies show that the performance of the GCMs in simulating climate variables varies significantly over different regions. This study intends to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran. Simulations from 37 GCMs and observations from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were obtained for the period of 1901-2005. Six measures of performance including mean bias, root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), Sen's slope estimator, and the Taylor diagram are used for the evaluation. GCMs are ranked based on each statistic at seasonal and annual time scales. Results show that most GCMs perform reasonably well in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature over Iran. The majority of the GCMs have a poor skill to simulate precipitation, particularly at seasonal scale. Based on the results, the best GCMs to represent temperature and precipitation simulations over Iran are the CMCC-CMS (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) and the MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute), respectively. The results are valuable for climate and hydrometeorological studies and can help water resources planners and managers to choose the proper GCM based on their criteria.

  1. Combined exposure of diesel exhaust particles and respirable Soufrière Hills volcanic ash causes a (pro-)inflammatory response in an in vitro multicellular epithelial tissue barrier model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomašek, Ines; Horwell, Claire J.; Damby, David; Barošová, Hana; Geers, Christoph; Petri-Fink, Alke; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Clift, Martin J. D.

    2016-01-01

    BackgroundThere are justifiable health concerns regarding the potential adverse effects associated with human exposure to volcanic ash (VA) particles, especially when considering communities living in urban areas already exposed to heightened air pollution. The aim of this study was, therefore, to gain an imperative, first understanding of the biological impacts of respirable VA when exposed concomitantly with diesel particles.MethodsA sophisticated in vitro 3D triple cell co-culture model of the human alveolar epithelial tissue barrier was exposed to either a single or repeated dose of dry respirable VA (deposited dose of 0.26 ± 0.09 or 0.89 ± 0.29 μg/cm2, respectively) from Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat for a period of 24 h at the air-liquid interface (ALI). Subsequently, co-cultures were exposed to co-exposures of single or repeated VA and diesel exhaust particles (DEP; NIST SRM 2975; 0.02 mg/mL), a model urban pollutant, at the pseudo-ALI. The biological impact of each individual particle type was also analysed under these precise scenarios. The cytotoxic (LDH release), oxidative stress (depletion of intracellular GSH) and (pro-)inflammatory (TNF-α, IL-8 and IL-1β) responses were assessed after the particulate exposures. The impact of VA exposure upon cell morphology, as well as its interaction with the multicellular model, was visualised via confocal laser scanning microscopy (LSM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), respectively.ResultsThe combination of respirable VA and DEP, in all scenarios, incited an heightened release of TNF-α and IL-8 as well as significant increases in IL-1β, when applied at sub-lethal doses to the co-culture compared to VA exposure alone. Notably, the augmented (pro-)inflammatory responses observed were not mediated by oxidative stress. LSM supported the quantitative assessment of cytotoxicity, with no changes in cell morphology within the barrier model evident. A direct interaction of the VA with all

  2. Evaluating meteorological data from weather stations, and from satellites and global models for a multi-site epidemiological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colston, Josh M; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Mahopo, Cloupas; Kang, Gagandeep; Kosek, Margaret; de Sousa Junior, Francisco; Shrestha, Prakash Sunder; Svensen, Erling; Turab, Ali; Zaitchik, Benjamin

    2018-04-21

    Longitudinal and time series analyses are needed to characterize the associations between hydrometeorological parameters and health outcomes. Earth Observation (EO) climate data products derived from satellites and global model-based reanalysis have the potential to be used as surrogates in situations and locations where weather-station based observations are inadequate or incomplete. However, these products often lack direct evaluation at specific sites of epidemiological interest. Standard evaluation metrics of correlation, agreement, bias and error were applied to a set of ten hydrometeorological variables extracted from two quasi-global, commonly used climate data products - the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) - to evaluate their performance relative to weather-station derived estimates at the specific geographic locations of the eight sites in a multi-site cohort study. These metrics were calculated for both daily estimates and 7-day averages and for a rotavirus-peak-season subset. Then the variables from the two sources were each used as predictors in longitudinal regression models to test their association with rotavirus infection in the cohort after adjusting for covariates. The availability and completeness of station-based validation data varied depending on the variable and study site. The performance of the two gridded climate models varied considerably within the same location and for the same variable across locations, according to different evaluation criteria and for the peak-season compared to the full dataset in ways that showed no obvious pattern. They also differed in the statistical significance of their association with the rotavirus outcome. For some variables, the station-based records showed a strong association while the EO-derived estimates showed none, while for others, the opposite was true. Researchers wishing to utilize publicly available climate data

  3. Some practical notes on the land surface modeling in the Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yang

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The Tibetan Plateau is a key region of land-atmosphere interactions, as it provides an elevated heat source to the middle-troposphere. The Plateau surfaces are typically characterized by alpine meadows and grasslands in the central and eastern part while by alpine deserts in the western part. This study evaluates performance of three state-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs for the Plateau typical land surfaces. The LSMs of interest are SiB2 (the Simple Biosphere, CoLM (Common Land Model, and Noah. They are run at typical alpine meadow sites in the central Plateau and typical alpine desert sites in the western Plateau.

    The identified key processes and modeling issues are as follows. First, soil stratification is a typical phenomenon beneath the alpine meadows, with dense roots and soil organic matters within the topsoil, and it controls the profile of soil moisture in the central and eastern Plateau; all models, when using default parameters, significantly under-estimate the soil moisture within the topsoil. Second, a soil surface resistance controls the surface evaporation from the alpine deserts but it has not been reasonably modeled in LSMs; an advanced scheme for soil water flow is implemented in a LSM, based on which the soil resistance is determined from soil water content and meteorological conditions. Third, an excess resistance controls sensible heat fluxes from dry bare-soil or sparsely vegetated surfaces, and all LSMs significantly under-predict the ground-air temperature gradient, which would result in higher net radiation, lower soil heat fluxes and thus higher sensible heat fluxes in the models. A parameterization scheme for this resistance has been shown to be effective to remove these biases.

  4. Assessing parameter importance of the Common Land Model based on qualitative and quantitative sensitivity analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Li

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Proper specification of model parameters is critical to the performance of land surface models (LSMs. Due to high dimensionality and parameter interaction, estimating parameters of an LSM is a challenging task. Sensitivity analysis (SA is a tool that can screen out the most influential parameters on model outputs. In this study, we conducted parameter screening for six output fluxes for the Common Land Model: sensible heat, latent heat, upward longwave radiation, net radiation, soil temperature and soil moisture. A total of 40 adjustable parameters were considered. Five qualitative SA methods, including local, sum-of-trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, delta test and Morris methods, were compared. The proper sampling design and sufficient sample size necessary to effectively screen out the sensitive parameters were examined. We found that there are 2–8 sensitive parameters, depending on the output type, and about 400 samples are adequate to reliably identify the most sensitive parameters. We also employed a revised Sobol' sensitivity method to quantify the importance of all parameters. The total effects of the parameters were used to assess the contribution of each parameter to the total variances of the model outputs. The results confirmed that global SA methods can generally identify the most sensitive parameters effectively, while local SA methods result in type I errors (i.e., sensitive parameters labeled as insensitive or type II errors (i.e., insensitive parameters labeled as sensitive. Finally, we evaluated and confirmed the screening results for their consistency with the physical interpretation of the model parameters.

  5. Enhancing Noah Land Surface Model Prediction Skill over Indian Subcontinent by Assimilating SMOPS Blended Soil Moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhilesh S. Nair

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, soil moisture assimilation is conducted over the Indian subcontinent, using the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM and the Soil Moisture Operational Products System (SMOPS observations by utilizing the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The study is conducted in two stages involving assimilation of soil moisture and simulation of brightness temperature (Tb using radiative transfer scheme. The results of data assimilation in the form of simulated Surface Soil Moisture (SSM maps are evaluated for the Indian summer monsoonal months of June, July, August, September (JJAS using the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM AMSR-E soil moisture as reference. Results of comparative analysis using the Global land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS SSM is also discussed over India. Data assimilation using SMOPS soil moisture shows improved prediction over the Indian subcontinent, with an average correlation of 0.96 and average root mean square difference (RMSD of 0.0303 m3/m3. The results are promising in comparison with the GLDAS SSM, which has an average correlation of 0.93 and average RMSD of 0.0481 m3/m3. In the second stage of the study, the assimilated soil moisture is used to simulate X-band brightness temperature (Tb at an incidence angle of 55° using the Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM Radiative transfer Model (RTM. This is aimed to study the sensitivity of the parameterization scheme on Tb simulation over the Indian subcontinent. The result of Tb simulation shows that the CMEM parameterization scheme strongly influences the simulated top of atmosphere (TOA brightness temperature. Furthermore, the Tb simulations from Wang dielectric model and Kirdyashev vegetation model shows better similarity with the actual AMSR-E Tb over the study region.

  6. Climatological Downscaling and Evaluation of AGRMET Precipitation Analyses Over the Continental U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, M.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Eylander, J. B.; Daly, C.; Tian, Y.; Zeng, J.

    2007-05-01

    The spatially distributed application of a land surface model (LSM) over a region of interest requires the application of similarly distributed precipitation fields that can be derived from various sources, including surface gauge networks, surface-based radar, and orbital platforms. The spatial variability of precipitation influences the spatial organization of soil temperature and moisture states and, consequently, the spatial variability of land- atmosphere fluxes. The accuracy of spatially-distributed precipitation fields can contribute significantly to the uncertainty of model-based hydrological states and fluxes at the land surface. Collaborations between the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), NASA, and Oregon State University have led to improvements in the processing of meteorological forcing inputs for the NASA-GSFC Land Information System (LIS; Kumar et al. 2006), a sophisticated framework for LSM operation and model coupling experiments. Efforts at AFWA toward the production of surface hydrometeorological products are currently in transition from the legacy Agricultural Meteorology modeling system (AGRMET) to use of the LIS framework and procedures. Recent enhancements to meteorological input processing for application to land surface models in LIS include the assimilation of climate-based information for the spatial interpolation and downscaling of precipitation fields. Climatological information included in the LIS-based downscaling procedure for North America is provided by a monthly high-resolution PRISM (Daly et al. 1994, 2002; Daly 2006) dataset based on a 30-year analysis period. The combination of these sources and methods attempts to address the strengths and weaknesses of available legacy products, objective interpolation methods, and the PRISM knowledge-based methodology. All of these efforts are oriented on an operational need for timely estimation of spatial precipitation fields at adequate spatial resolution for customer dissemination and

  7. Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Vimal; Shah, Reepal; Azhar, Syed; Shah, Harsh; Modi, Parth; Kumar, Rohini

    2018-04-01

    India has witnessed some of the most severe historical droughts in the current decade, and severity, frequency, and areal extent of droughts have been increasing. As a large part of the population of India is dependent on agriculture, soil moisture drought affecting agricultural activities (crop yields) has significant impacts on socio-economic conditions. Due to limited observations, soil moisture is generally simulated using land-surface hydrological models (LSMs); however, these LSM outputs have uncertainty due to many factors, including errors in forcing data and model parameterization. Here we reconstruct agricultural drought events over India during the period of 1951-2015 based on simulated soil moisture from three LSMs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), the Noah, and the Community Land Model (CLM). Based on simulations from the three LSMs, we find that major drought events occurred in 1987, 2002, and 2015 during the monsoon season (June through September). During the Rabi season (November through February), major soil moisture droughts occurred in 1966, 1973, 2001, and 2003. Soil moisture droughts estimated from the three LSMs are comparable in terms of their spatial coverage; however, differences are found in drought severity. Moreover, we find a higher uncertainty in simulated drought characteristics over a large part of India during the major crop-growing season (Rabi season, November to February: NDJF) compared to those of the monsoon season (June to September: JJAS). Furthermore, uncertainty in drought estimates is higher for severe and localized droughts. Higher uncertainty in the soil moisture droughts is largely due to the difference in model parameterizations (especially soil depth), resulting in different persistence of soil moisture simulated by the three LSMs. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for the LSMs' uncertainty and consideration of the multi-model ensemble system for the real-time monitoring and prediction of

  8. The Analytical Objective Hysteresis Model (AnOHM v1.0: methodology to determine bulk storage heat flux coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Sun

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The net storage heat flux (ΔQS is important in the urban surface energy balance (SEB but its determination remains a significant challenge. The hysteresis pattern of the diurnal relation between the ΔQS and net all-wave radiation (Q∗ has been captured in the Objective Hysteresis Model (OHM parameterization of ΔQS. Although successfully used in urban areas, the limited availability of coefficients for OHM hampers its application. To facilitate use, and enhance physical interpretations of the OHM coefficients, an analytical solution of the one-dimensional advection–diffusion equation of coupled heat and liquid water transport in conjunction with the SEB is conducted, allowing development of AnOHM (Analytical Objective Hysteresis Model. A sensitivity test of AnOHM to surface properties and hydrometeorological forcing is presented using a stochastic approach (subset simulation. The sensitivity test suggests that the albedo, Bowen ratio and bulk transfer coefficient, solar radiation and wind speed are most critical. AnOHM, driven by local meteorological conditions at five sites with different land use, is shown to simulate the ΔQS flux well (RMSE values of ∼ 30 W m−2. The intra-annual dynamics of OHM coefficients are explored. AnOHM offers significant potential to enhance modelling of the surface energy balance over a wider range of conditions and land covers.

  9. Impact of model perfume molecules on the self-assembly of anionic surfactant sodium dodecyl 6-benzene sulfonate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradbury, Robert; Penfold, Jeffrey; Thomas, Robert K; Tucker, Ian M; Petkov, Jordan T; Jones, Craig; Grillo, Isabelle

    2013-03-12

    The impact of two model perfumes with differing degrees of hydrophobicity/hydrophilicity, linalool (LL) and phenylethanol (PE), on the solution structure of anionic surfactant sodium dodecyl 6-benzene sulfonate, LAS-6, has been studied by small angle neutron scattering, SANS. For both types of perfume molecules, complex phase behavior is observed. The phase behavior depends upon the concentration, surfactant/perfume composition, and type of perfume. The more hydrophilic perfume PE promotes the formation of more highly curved structures. At relatively low surfactant concentrations, small globular micelles, L1, are formed. These become perfume droplets, L(sm), stabilized by the surfactant at much higher perfume solution compositions. At higher surfactant concentrations, the tendency of LAS-6 to form more planar structures is evident. The more hydrophobic linalool promotes the formation of more planar structures. Combined with the greater tendency of LAS-6 to form planar structures, this results in the planar structures dominating the phase behavior for the LAS-6/linalool mixtures. For the LAS-6/linalool mixture, the self-assembly is in the form of micelles only at the lowest surfactant and perfume concentrations. Over most of the concentration-composition space explored, the structures are predominantly lamellar, L(α), or vesicle, L(v), or in the form of a lamellar/micellar coexistence. At low and intermediate amounts of LL, a significantly different structure is observed, and the aggregates are in the form of small, relatively monodisperse vesicles (i.e., nanovesicles), L(sv).

  10. Flash Floods Simulation using a Physical-Based Hydrological Model at Different Hydroclimatic Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saber, Mohamed; Kamil Yilmaz, Koray

    2016-04-01

    Currently, flash floods are seriously increasing and affecting many regions over the world. Therefore, this study will focus on two case studies; Wadi Abu Subeira, Egypt as arid environment, and Karpuz basin, Turkey as Mediterranean environment. The main objective of this work is to simulate flash floods at both catchments considering the hydrometeorological differences between them which in turn effect their flash flood behaviors. An integrated methodology incorporating Hydrological River Basin Environmental Assessment Model (Hydro-BEAM) and remote sensing observations was devised. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) were compared with the rain gauge network at the target basins to estimate the bias in an effort to further use it effectively in simulation of flash floods. Based on the preliminary results of flash floods simulation on both basins, we found that runoff behaviors of flash floods are different due to the impacts of climatology, hydrological and topographical conditions. Also, the simulated surface runoff hydrographs are reasonably coincide with the simulated ones. Consequently, some mitigation strategies relying on this study could be introduced to help in reducing the flash floods disasters at different climate regions. This comparison of different climatic basins would be a reasonable implication for the potential impact of climate change on the flash floods frequencies and occurrences.

  11. Parameter optimisation for a better representation of drought by LSMs: inverse modelling vs. sequential data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewaele, Hélène; Munier, Simon; Albergel, Clément; Planque, Carole; Laanaia, Nabil; Carrer, Dominique; Calvet, Jean-Christophe

    2017-09-01

    Soil maximum available water content (MaxAWC) is a key parameter in land surface models (LSMs). However, being difficult to measure, this parameter is usually uncertain. This study assesses the feasibility of using a 15-year (1999-2013) time series of satellite-derived low-resolution observations of leaf area index (LAI) to estimate MaxAWC for rainfed croplands over France. LAI interannual variability is simulated using the CO2-responsive version of the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) LSM for various values of MaxAWC. Optimal value is then selected by using (1) a simple inverse modelling technique, comparing simulated and observed LAI and (2) a more complex method consisting in integrating observed LAI in ISBA through a land data assimilation system (LDAS) and minimising LAI analysis increments. The evaluation of the MaxAWC estimates from both methods is done using simulated annual maximum above-ground biomass (Bag) and straw cereal grain yield (GY) values from the Agreste French agricultural statistics portal, for 45 administrative units presenting a high proportion of straw cereals. Significant correlations (p value Bag and GY are found for up to 36 and 53 % of the administrative units for the inverse modelling and LDAS tuning methods, respectively. It is found that the LDAS tuning experiment gives more realistic values of MaxAWC and maximum Bag than the inverse modelling experiment. Using undisaggregated LAI observations leads to an underestimation of MaxAWC and maximum Bag in both experiments. Median annual maximum values of disaggregated LAI observations are found to correlate very well with MaxAWC.

  12. Upper Blue Nile basin water budget from a multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Hahn Chul; Getirana, Augusto; Policelli, Frederick; McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi R.; Kumar, Sujay; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2017-12-01

    Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based meteorological datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications datasets (i.e., MERRA-Land and MERRA-2) and three observation-based precipitation datasets, generating a total of 16 experiments. Modeled evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, and terrestrial water storage estimates were evaluated against the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) ET, in-situ streamflow observations, and NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products, respectively. Results show that CLSMF2.5 provided better representation of the water budget variables than Noah3.3 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient when considering all meteorological forcing datasets and precipitation datasets. The model experiments forced with observation-based products, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), outperform those run with MERRA-Land and MERRA-2 precipitation. The results presented in this paper would suggest that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System incorporate CLSMF2.5 and HyMAP routing scheme to better represent the water balance in this region.

  13. Probabilistic Water Availability Prediction in the Rio Grande Basin using Large-scale Circulation Indices as Precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khedun, C. P.; Mishra, A. K.; Giardino, J. R.; Singh, V. P.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrometeorological conditions, and therefore water availability, is affected by large-scale circulation indices. In the Rio Grande, which is a transboundary basin shared between the United States and Mexico, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence local hydrological conditions. Different sub-regions of the basin exhibit varying degrees of correlation, but in general, an increase (decrease) in runoff during El Niños (La Niñas) is noted. Positive PDO enhances the effect of El Niño and dampens the negative effect of La Niña, and when it is in its neutral/transition phase, La Niña dominates climatic conditions and reduces water availability. Further, lags of up to 3 months have been found between ENSO and precipitation in the basin. We hypothesize that (1) a trivariate statistical relationship can be established between the two climate indices and water availability, and (2) the relationship can be used to predict water availability based on projected PDO and ENSO conditions. We use copula to establish the dependence between climate indices and water availability. Water availability is generated from Noah land surface model (LSM), forced with the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). The model is run within NASA GSFC's Land Information System. LSM generated runoff gives a more realistic picture of available surface water as it is not affected by anthropogenic changes, such as the construction of dams, diversions, and other land use land cover changes, which may obscure climatic influences. Marginals from climate indices and runoff are from different distribution families, thus conventional functional forms of multivariate frequency distributions cannot be employed. Copulas offer a viable alternative as marginals from different families can be combined into a joint distribution. Uncertainties in the statistical relationship can be determined and the statistical model can be used for

  14. A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

    2014-05-01

    Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

  15. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of flood risk management decisions based on stationary and nonstationary model choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehan Balqis M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Current practice in flood frequency analysis assumes that the stochastic properties of extreme floods follow that of stationary conditions. As human intervention and anthropogenic climate change influences in hydrometeorological variables are becoming evident in some places, there have been suggestions that nonstationary statistics would be better to represent the stochastic properties of the extreme floods. The probabilistic estimation of non-stationary models, however, is surrounded with uncertainty related to scarcity of observations and modelling complexities hence the difficulty to project the future condition. In the face of uncertain future and the subjectivity of model choices, this study attempts to demonstrate the practical implications of applying a nonstationary model and compares it with a stationary model in flood risk assessment. A fully integrated framework to simulate decision makers’ behaviour in flood frequency analysis is thereby developed. The framework is applied to hypothetical flood risk management decisions and the outcomes are compared with those of known underlying future conditions. Uncertainty of the economic performance of the risk-based decisions is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity of the results is also tested by varying the possible magnitude of future changes. The application provides quantitative and qualitative comparative results that satisfy a preliminary analysis of whether the nonstationary model complexity should be applied to improve the economic performance of decisions. Results obtained from the case study shows that the relative differences of competing models for all considered possible future changes are small, suggesting that stationary assumptions are preferred to a shift to nonstationary statistics for practical application of flood risk management. Nevertheless, nonstationary assumption should also be considered during a planning stage in addition to stationary assumption

  16. Description and verification of a U.S. Naval Research Lab's loosely coupled data assimilation system for the Navy's Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, N. P.; Metzger, E. J.; Smedstad, O. M.; Ruston, B. C.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Whitcomb, T.; Ridout, J. A.; Zamudio, L.; Posey, P.; Reynolds, C. A.; Richman, J. G.; Phelps, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory is developing an Earth System Model (NESM) to provide global environmental information to meet Navy and Department of Defense (DoD) operations and planning needs from the upper atmosphere to under the sea. This system consists of a global atmosphere, ocean, ice, wave, and land prediction models and the individual models include: atmosphere - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM); ocean - HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM); sea ice - Community Ice CodE (CICE); WAVEWATCH III™; and land - NAVGEM Land Surface Model (LSM). Data assimilation is currently loosely coupled between the atmosphere component using a 6-hour update cycle in the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System - Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) and the ocean/ice components using a 24-hour update cycle in the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) with 3 hours of incremental updating. This presentation will describe the US Navy's coupled forecast model, the loosely coupled data assimilation, and compare results against stand-alone atmosphere and ocean/ice models. In particular, we will focus on the unique aspects of this modeling system, which includes an eddy resolving ocean model and challenges associated with different update-windows and solvers for the data assimilation in the atmosphere and ocean. Results will focus on typical operational diagnostics for atmosphere, ocean, and ice analyses including 500 hPa atmospheric height anomalies, low-level winds, temperature/salinity ocean depth profiles, ocean acoustical proxies, sea ice edge, and sea ice drift. Overall, the global coupled system is performing with comparable skill to the stand-alone systems.

  17. Development of a hybrid 3-D hydrological model to simulate hillslopes and the regional unconfined aquifer system in Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Broxton, P. D.; Brunke, M.; Gochis, D.; Niu, G. Y.; Pelletier, J. D.; Troch, P. A. A.; Zeng, X.

    2015-12-01

    The terrestrial hydrological system, including surface and subsurface water, is an essential component of the Earth's climate system. Over the past few decades, land surface modelers have built one-dimensional (1D) models resolving the vertical flow of water through the soil column for use in Earth system models (ESMs). These models generally have a relatively coarse model grid size (~25-100 km) and only account for sub-grid lateral hydrological variations using simple parameterization schemes. At the same time, hydrologists have developed detailed high-resolution (~0.1-10 km grid size) three dimensional (3D) models and showed the importance of accounting for the vertical and lateral redistribution of surface and subsurface water on soil moisture, the surface energy balance and ecosystem dynamics on these smaller scales. However, computational constraints have limited the implementation of the high-resolution models for continental and global scale applications. The current work presents a hybrid-3D hydrological approach is presented, where the 1D vertical soil column model (available in many ESMs) is coupled with a high-resolution lateral flow model (h2D) to simulate subsurface flow and overland flow. H2D accounts for both local-scale hillslope and regional-scale unconfined aquifer responses (i.e. riparian zone and wetlands). This approach was shown to give comparable results as those obtained by an explicit 3D Richards model for the subsurface, but improves runtime efficiency considerably. The h3D approach is implemented for the Delaware river basin, where Noah-MP land surface model (LSM) is used to calculated vertical energy and water exchanges with the atmosphere using a 10km grid resolution. Noah-MP was coupled within the WRF-Hydro infrastructure with the lateral 1km grid resolution h2D model, for which the average depth-to-bedrock, hillslope width function and soil parameters were estimated from digital datasets. The ability of this h3D approach to simulate

  18. Reconstruction of the muscle system in Antygomonas sp. (Kinorhyncha, Cyclorhagida) by means of phalloidin labeling and cLSM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Monika C M; Schmidt-Rhaesa, Andreas

    2003-05-01

    In the present investigation the entire muscle system of the cyclorhagid kinorhynch Antygomonas sp. was three-dimensionally reconstructed from whole mounts by means of FITC-phalloidin labeling and confocal scanning microscopy. With this technique, which proved to be especially useful for microscopically small species, we wanted to reinvestigate and supplement the findings obtained by histological and electron microscopical methods. The organization of the major muscle systems can be summarized as follows: 1) All muscle fibers, apart from the intestinal ones, the spine, and the mouth cone muscles, show a cross-striated pattern; 2) Dorsal longitudinal muscle fibers as well as segmentally arranged dorsoventral fibers occur from segment III to XIII; 3) Diagonal muscle fibers are located laterally in segments III to X; 4) Two rings of circular fibers are present in segment II, forming the closing apparatus in Cyclorhagida. Further circular muscles are present in segment I, forming the mouth cone and the eversible introvert, and in the pharyngeal bulb. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  19. Electrochemical Removal of NOx-Gasses by Use of LSM-Cathodes Impregnated with a NOx Storage Compound

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Traulsen, Marie Lund; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2010-01-01

    Electrochemical decomposition of NO on La0.85Sr0.15MnO3-- Ce0.90Gd0.10O1.95electrodes with and without KNO3 impregnation is investigated. The KNO3 is added as this compound is expected to work as a NOx-storage compound. Measurements are made in the temperature range 300-400 degree C and in three...... in the NO-conversion, when KNO3 is added to the La0.85Sr0.15MnO3-- Ce0.90Gd0.10O1.95electrodes. ©2010 COPYRIGHT ECS - The Electrochemical Society...

  20. Electrochemical oxidation of propene by use of LSM15/CGO10 electrochemical reactor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ippolito, Davide; Andersen, Kjeld Bøhm; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2012-01-01

    The propene catalytic oxidation was studied over an 11-layers porous electrochemical reactor made by La0.85Sr0.15MnO3 and Ce0.9Gd0.1O1.95 with the objective to simulate the abatement of exhaust gases emitted from Diesel engines. This work shows the possibility to enhance the catalytic activity th...... of catalysis (EPOC) was found at low temperature....

  1. High temperature electrolyte supported Ni-GDC/YSZ/LSM SOFC operation on two-stage Viking gasifier product gas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofmann, P.; Schweiger, A.; Fryda, L.

    2007-01-01

    and tar traces. The chosen SOFC was electrolyte supported with a nickel/gadolinium-doped cerium oxide (Ni-GDC) anode, known for its carbon deposition resistance. Through humidification the steam to carbon ratio (S/C) was adjusted to 0.5, which results in a thermodynamically carbon free condition...

  2. 3D plane-wave least-squares Kirchhoff migration

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Xin

    2014-08-05

    A three dimensional least-squares Kirchhoff migration (LSM) is developed in the prestack plane-wave domain to increase the quality of migration images and the computational efficiency. Due to the limitation of current 3D marine acquisition geometries, a cylindrical-wave encoding is adopted for the narrow azimuth streamer data. To account for the mispositioning of reflectors due to errors in the velocity model, a regularized LSM is devised so that each plane-wave or cylindrical-wave gather gives rise to an individual migration image, and a regularization term is included to encourage the similarities between the migration images of similar encoding schemes. Both synthetic and field results show that: 1) plane-wave or cylindrical-wave encoding LSM can achieve both computational and IO saving, compared to shot-domain LSM, however, plane-wave LSM is still about 5 times more expensive than plane-wave migration; 2) the regularized LSM is more robust compared to LSM with one reflectivity model common for all the plane-wave or cylindrical-wave gathers.

  3. Understanding Mesoscale Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, X.; Wang, S.; Nachamkin, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    Land-atmosphere interactions in Arctic region are examined using the U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS©*) with the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM). Initial land surface variables in COAMPS are interpolated from the real-time NASA Land Information System (LIS). The model simulations are configured for three nest grids with 27-9-3 km horizontal resolutions. The simulation period is set for October 2015 with 12-h data assimilation update cycle and 24-h integration length. The results are compared with those simulated without using LSM and evaluated with observations from ONR Sea State R/V Sikuliaq cruise and the North Slope of Alaska (NSA). There are complex soil and vegetation types over the surface for simulation with LSM, compared to without LSM simulation. The results show substantial differences in surface heat fluxes between bulk surface scheme and LSM, which may have an important impact on the sea ice evolution over the Arctic region. Evaluations from station data show surface air temperature and relative humidity have smaller biases for simulation using LSM. Diurnal variation of land surface temperature, which is necessary for physical processes of land-atmosphere, is also better captured than without LSM.

  4. Experiments and numerical modeling of fast flowing liquid metal thin films under spatially varying magnetic field conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narula, Manmeet Singh

    Innovative concepts using fast flowing thin films of liquid metals (like lithium) have been proposed for the protection of the divertor surface in magnetic fusion devices. However, concerns exist about the possibility of establishing the required flow of liquid metal thin films because of the presence of strong magnetic fields which can cause flow disrupting MHD effects. A plan is underway to design liquid lithium based divertor protection concepts for NSTX, a small spherical torus experiment at Princeton. Of these, a promising concept is the use of modularized fast flowing liquid lithium film zones, as the divertor (called the NSTX liquid surface module concept or NSTX LSM). The dynamic response of the liquid metal film flow in a spatially varying magnetic field configuration is still unknown and it is suspected that some unpredicted effects might be lurking. The primary goal of the research work being reported in this dissertation is to provide qualitative and quantitative information on the liquid metal film flow dynamics under spatially varying magnetic field conditions, typical of the divertor region of a magnetic fusion device. The liquid metal film flow dynamics have been studied through a synergic experimental and numerical modeling effort. The Magneto Thermofluid Omnibus Research (MTOR) facility at UCLA has been used to design several experiments to study the MHD interaction of liquid gallium films under a scaled NSTX outboard divertor magnetic field environment. A 3D multi-material, free surface MHD modeling capability is under development in collaboration with HyPerComp Inc., an SBIR vendor. This numerical code called HIMAG provides a unique capability to model the equations of incompressible MHD with a free surface. Some parts of this modeling capability have been developed in this research work, in the form of subroutines for HIMAG. Extensive code debugging and benchmarking exercise has also been carried out. Finally, HIMAG has been used to study the

  5. Copula Multivariate analysis of Gross primary production and its hydro-environmental driver; A BIOME-BGC model applied to the Antisana páramos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minaya, Veronica; Corzo, Gerald; van der Kwast, Johannes; Galarraga, Remigio; Mynett, Arthur

    2014-05-01

    Simulations of carbon cycling are prone to uncertainties from different sources, which in general are related to input data, parameters and the model representation capacities itself. The gross carbon uptake in the cycle is represented by the gross primary production (GPP), which deals with the spatio-temporal variability of the precipitation and the soil moisture dynamics. This variability associated with uncertainty of the parameters can be modelled by multivariate probabilistic distributions. Our study presents a novel methodology that uses multivariate Copulas analysis to assess the GPP. Multi-species and elevations variables are included in a first scenario of the analysis. Hydro-meteorological conditions that might generate a change in the next 50 or more years are included in a second scenario of this analysis. The biogeochemical model BIOME-BGC was applied in the Ecuadorian Andean region in elevations greater than 4000 masl with the presence of typical vegetation of páramo. The change of GPP over time is crucial for climate scenarios of the carbon cycling in this type of ecosystem. The results help to improve our understanding of the ecosystem function and clarify the dynamics and the relationship with the change of climate variables. Keywords: multivariate analysis, Copula, BIOME-BGC, NPP, páramos

  6. Assessing groundwater recharge in an Andean closed basin using isotopic characterization and a rainfall-runoff model: Salar del Huasco basin, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uribe, Javier; Muñoz, José F.; Gironás, Jorge; Oyarzún, Ricardo; Aguirre, Evelyn; Aravena, Ramón

    2015-11-01

    Closed basins are catchments whose drainage networks converge to lakes, salt flats or alluvial plains. Salt flats in the closed basins in arid northern Chile are extremely important ecological niches. The Salar del Huasco, one of these salt flats located in the high plateau (Altiplano), is a Ramsar site located in a national park and is composed of a wetland ecosystem rich in biodiversity. The proper management of the groundwater, which is essential for the wetland function, requires accurate estimates of recharge in the Salar del Huasco basin. This study quantifies the spatio-temporal distribution of the recharge, through combined use of isotopic characterization of the different components of the water cycle and a rainfall-runoff model. The use of both methodologies aids the understanding of hydrological behavior of the basin and enabled estimation of a long-term average recharge of 22 mm/yr (i.e., 15 % of the annual rainfall). Recharge has a high spatial variability, controlled by the geological and hydrometeorological characteristics of the basin, and a high interannual variability, with values ranging from 18 to 26 mm/yr. The isotopic approach allowed not only the definition of the conceptual model used in the hydrological model, but also eliminated the possibility of a hydrogeological connection between the aquifer of the Salar del Huasco basin and the aquifer that feeds the springs of the nearby town of Pica. This potential connection has been an issue of great interest to agriculture and tourism activities in the region.

  7. Hybrid Metal/Electrolyte Monolithic Low Temperature SOFCs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-10-15

    ScSz system. • Modeling and simulation of steady state heat transfer and temperature distribution in externally insulated hybrid LCA fuel cell stack...amorphous LSM powder derived from the GNP was then annealed at 800oC for 4 hours to form the perovskite structure, as determined by X-ray diffraction...analysis. The perovskite LSM powder was then ball milled with YSZ in weight ratio of LSM:YSZ= 60:40, together with proper amount of an organic

  8. NASA SPoRT Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Transition Activities Using WRF, LIS and GSI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Blankenship, Clay B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Berndt, Emily B.

    2014-01-01

    weather research and forecasting ===== The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has numerous modeling and data assimilation (DA) activities in which the WRF model is a key component. SPoRT generates realtime, research satellite products from the MODIS and VIIRS instruments, making the data available to NOAA/NWS partners running the WRF/EMS, including: (1) 2-km northwestern-hemispheric SST composite, (2) daily, MODIS green vegetation fraction (GVF) over CONUS, and (3) NASA Land Information System (LIS) runs of the Noah LSM over the southeastern CONUS. Each of these datasets have been utilized by specific SPoRT partners in local EMS model runs, with select offices evaluating the impacts using a set of automated scripts developed by SPoRT that manage data acquisition and run the NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package. SPoRT is engaged in DA research with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and Ensemble Kalman Filter in LIS for soil moisture DA. Ongoing DA projects using GSI include comparing the impacts of assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances versus retrieved profiles, and an analysis of extra-tropical cyclones with intense non-convective winds. As part of its Early Adopter activities for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, SPoRT is conducting bias correction and soil moisture DA within LIS to improve simulations using the NASA Unified-WRF (NU-WRF) for both the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity and upcoming SMAP mission data. SPoRT has also incorporated real-time global GVF data into LIS and WRF from the VIIRS product being developed by NOAA/NESDIS. This poster will highlight the research and transition activities SPoRT conducts using WRF, NU-WRF, EMS, LIS, and GSI.

  9. Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Dengfeng; Yuan, Xing

    2017-08-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of ecohydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965–1969) from 0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010–2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

  10. Holistic flood risk assessment using agent-based modelling: the case of Sint Maarten Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abayneh Abebe, Yared; Vojinovic, Zoran; Nikolic, Igor; Hammond, Michael; Sanchez, Arlex; Pelling, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Floods in coastal regions are regarded as one of the most dangerous and harmful disasters. Though commonly referred to as natural disasters, coastal floods are also attributable to various social, economic, historical and political issues. Rapid urbanisation in coastal areas combined with climate change and poor governance can lead to a significant increase in the risk of pluvial flooding coinciding with fluvial and coastal flooding posing a greater risk of devastation in coastal communities. Disasters that can be triggered by hydro-meteorological events are interconnected and interrelated with both human activities and natural processes. They, therefore, require holistic approaches to help understand their complexity in order to design and develop adaptive risk management approaches that minimise social and economic losses and environmental impacts, and increase resilience to such events. Being located in the North Atlantic Ocean, Sint Maarten is frequently subjected to hurricanes. In addition, the stormwater catchments and streams on Sint Maarten have several unique characteristics that contribute to the severity of flood-related impacts. Urban environments are usually situated in low-lying areas, with little consideration for stormwater drainage, and as such are subject to flash flooding. Hence, Sint Maarten authorities drafted policies to minimise the risk of flood-related disasters on the island. In this study, an agent-based model is designed and applied to understand the implications of introduced policies and regulations, and to understand how different actors' behaviours influence the formation, propagation and accumulation of flood risk. The agent-based model built for this study is based on the MAIA meta-model, which helps to decompose, structure and conceptualize socio-technical systems with an agent-oriented perspective, and is developed using the NetLogo simulation environment. The agents described in this model are households and businesses, and

  11. Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

    2018-03-01

    Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

  12. Establishing an operational waterhole monitoring system using satellite data and hydrologic modelling: Application in the pastoral regions of East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senay, Gabriel B.; Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Alemu, Henok; Pervez, Shahriar Md; Asante, Kwabena O; Karuki, Gatarwa; Taa, Asefa; Angerer, Jay

    2013-01-01

    Timely information on the availability of water and forage is important for the sustainable development of pastoral regions. The lack of such information increases the dependence of pastoral communities on perennial sources, which often leads to competition and conflicts. The provision of timely information is a challenging task, especially due to the scarcity or non-existence of conventional station-based hydrometeorological networks in the remote pastoral regions. A multi-source water balance modelling approach driven by satellite data was used to operationally monitor daily water level fluctuations across the pastoral regions of northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer data were used for mapping and estimating the surface area of the waterholes. Satellite-based rainfall, modelled run-off and evapotranspiration data were used to model daily water level fluctuations. Mapping of waterholes was achieved with 97% accuracy. Validation of modelled water levels with field-installed gauge data demonstrated the ability of the model to capture the seasonal patterns and variations. Validation results indicate that the model explained 60% of the observed variability in water levels, with an average root-mean-squared error of 22%. Up-to-date information on rainfall, evaporation, scaled water depth and condition of the waterholes is made available daily in near-real time via the Internet (http://watermon.tamu.edu). Such information can be used by non-governmental organizations, governmental organizations and other stakeholders for early warning and decision making. This study demonstrated an integrated approach for establishing an operational waterhole monitoring system using multi-source satellite data and hydrologic modelling.

  13. A Budyko-type Model for Human Water Consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, X.; Zhao, J.; Wang, D.; Sivapalan, M.

    2017-12-01

    With the expansion of human water footprint, water crisis is no longer only a conflict or competition for water between different economic sectors, but also increasingly between human and the environment. In order to describe the emergent dynamics and patterns of the interaction, a theoretical framework that encapsulates the physical and societal controls impacting human water consumption is needed. In traditional hydrology, Budyko-type models are simple but efficient descriptions of vegetation-mediated hydrologic cycle in catchments, i.e., the partitioning of mean annual precipitation into runoff and evapotranspiration. Plant water consumption plays a crucial role in the process. Hypothesized similarities between human-water and vegetation-water interactions, including water demand, constraints and system functioning, give the idea of corresponding Budyko-type framework for human water consumption at the catchment scale. Analogous to variables of Budyko-type models for hydrologic cycle, water demand, water consumption, environmental water use and available water are corresponding to potential evaporation, actual evaporation, runoff and precipitation respectively. Human water consumption data, economic and hydro-meteorological data for 51 human-impacted catchments and 10 major river basins in China are assembled to look for the existence of a Budyko-type relationship for human water consumption, and to seek explanations for the spread in the observed relationship. Guided by this, a Budyko-type analytical model is derived based on application of an optimality principle, that of maximum water benefit. The model derived has the same functional form and mathematical features as those that apply for the original Budyko model. Parameters of the new Budyko-type model for human consumption are linked to economic and social factors. The results of this paper suggest that the functioning of both social and hydrologic subsystems within catchment systems can be explored within

  14. Multi-source least-squares reverse time migration with topography

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Dongliang; Schuster, Gerard T.; Zhan, Ge

    2013-01-01

    We demonstrate an accurate method for calculating LSM images from data recorded on irregular topography. Our results with both the Marmousi and Foothill models with steep topography suggest the effectiveness of this method.

  15. Multi-source least-squares reverse time migration with topography

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Dongliang

    2013-09-22

    We demonstrate an accurate method for calculating LSM images from data recorded on irregular topography. Our results with both the Marmousi and Foothill models with steep topography suggest the effectiveness of this method.

  16. Retrospective Snow Analysis Across the Continental United States for the National Water Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karsten, L. R.; Gochis, D.; Dugger, A. L.; McCreight, J. L.; Barlage, M. J.; Fall, G. M.; Olheiser, C.

    2016-12-01

    For large portions of the United States, snow plays a vital role in hydrologic prediction. This is particularly true in the mountain west where snowmelt contributes up to 80% of total streamflow runoff. The Office of Water Prediction (OWP) will begin running the National Water Model (NWM) during the second half of 2016, which is a continental-scale implementation of the WRF-Hydro community hydrologic modeling framework. Assessing and benchmarking the performance of the snow component of the NWM is important for future research-to-operations activities and for forecasters to better understand NWM output. For this study, WRF-Hydro was ran using the same domain and physics options as the NWM (1 km LSM, 250m overland routing, and NHDPlus Version 2.1 channel network). The land surface component chosen is Noah-MP land surface model. Forcing from the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) was downscaled from the native 0.125 degree resolution to the 1 km modeling domain to drive the model. The model was ran over a 5-year retrospective period to gauge multi-year performance of the snow states. Output was analyzed against both in-situ observations, such as SNOTEL, and the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). In addition, gridded snow states and SNODAS grids were aggregated to Omernik-derived ecological regions. This was done in order to break up snow analysis by regions that share similar ecological and physiographic characteristics. Results show WRF-Hydro is able to capture peak timing across most of the mountain west fairly well. In terms of magnitudes, the model struggles across portions of the west with a low bias. This is especially true in the Cascades, which could be traced back to precipitation partitioning issues in the model. Across the central Rockies, the model exhibits a lower dry bias showing improved performance there. Previous literature suggests a dry bias in the precipitation out west may be contributing to model performance. East of the

  17. Simulation of infiltration and redistribution of intense rainfall using Land Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Anna; Verhoef, Anne; Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    Flooding from intense rainfall (FFIR) can cause widespread damage and disruption. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models provide distributed information about atmospheric conditions, such as precipitation, that can lead to a flooding event. Short duration, high intensity rainfall events are generally poorly predicted by NWP models, because of the high spatiotemporal resolution required and because of the way the convective rainfall is described in the model. The resolution of NWP models is ever increasing. Better understanding of complex hydrological processes and the effect of scale is important in order to improve the prediction of magnitude and duration of such events, in the context of disaster management. Working as part of the NERC SINATRA project, we evaluated how the Land Surface Model (LSM) components of NWP models cope with high intensity rainfall input and subsequent infiltration problems. Both in terms of the amount of water infiltrated in the soil store, as well as the timing and the amount of surface and subsurface runoff generated. The models investigated are SWAP (Soil Water Air Plant, Alterra, the Netherlands, van Dam 1997), JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator a component of Unified Model in UK Met Office, Best et al. 2011) and CHTESSEL (Carbon and Hydrology- Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land, Balsamo et al. 2009) We analysed the numerical aspects arising from discontinuities (or sharp gradients) in forcing and/or the model solution. These types of infiltration configurations were tested in the laboratory (Vachaud 1971), for some there are semi-analytical solutions (Philip 1957, Parlange 1972, Vanderborght 2005) or reference numerical solutions (Haverkamp 1977, van Dam 2000, Vanderborght 2005). The maximum infiltration by the surface, Imax, is in general dependent on atmospheric conditions, surface type, soil type, soil moisture content θ, and surface orographic factor σ. The models used differ in their approach to

  18. CMIP5 land surface models systematically underestimate inter-annual variability of net ecosystem exchange in semi-arid southwestern North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacBean, N.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Vuichard, N.; Hudson, A.; Barnes, M.; Fox, A. M.; Smith, W. K.; Peylin, P. P.; Maignan, F.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies based on analysis of atmospheric CO2 inversions, satellite data and terrestrial biosphere model simulations have suggested that semi-arid ecosystems play a dominant role in the interannual variability and long-term trend in the global carbon sink. These studies have largely cited the response of vegetation activity to changing moisture availability as the primary mechanism of variability. However, some land surface models (LSMs) used in these studies have performed poorly in comparison to satellite-based observations of vegetation dynamics in semi-arid regions. Further analysis is therefore needed to ensure semi-arid carbon cycle processes are well represented in global scale LSMs before we can fully establish their contribution to the global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) simulated by CMIP5 land surface models using observations from 20 Ameriflux sites across semi-arid southwestern North America. We found that CMIP5 models systematically underestimate the magnitude and sign of NEE inter-annual variability; therefore, the true role of semi-arid regions in the global carbon cycle may be even more important than previously thought. To diagnose the factors responsible for this bias, we used the ORCHIDEE LSM to test different climate forcing data, prescribed vegetation fractions and model structures. Climate and prescribed vegetation do contribute to uncertainty in annual NEE simulations, but the bias is primarily caused by incorrect timing and magnitude of peak gross carbon fluxes. Modifications to the hydrology scheme improved simulations of soil moisture in comparison to data. This in turn improved the seasonal cycle of carbon uptake due to a more realistic limitation on photosynthesis during water stress. However, the peak fluxes are still too low, and phenology is poorly represented for desert shrubs and grasses. We provide suggestions on model developments needed to tackle these issues in the future.

  19. [Sensitivity analysis of AnnAGNPS model's hydrology and water quality parameters based on the perturbation analysis method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Qing; Li, Zhao-Fu; Luo, Chuan

    2014-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis of hydrology and water quality parameters has a great significance for integrated model's construction and application. Based on AnnAGNPS model's mechanism, terrain, hydrology and meteorology, field management, soil and other four major categories of 31 parameters were selected for the sensitivity analysis in Zhongtian river watershed which is a typical small watershed of hilly region in the Taihu Lake, and then used the perturbation method to evaluate the sensitivity of the parameters to the model's simulation results. The results showed that: in the 11 terrain parameters, LS was sensitive to all the model results, RMN, RS and RVC were generally sensitive and less sensitive to the output of sediment but insensitive to the remaining results. For hydrometeorological parameters, CN was more sensitive to runoff and sediment and relatively sensitive for the rest results. In field management, fertilizer and vegetation parameters, CCC, CRM and RR were less sensitive to sediment and particulate pollutants, the six fertilizer parameters (FR, FD, FID, FOD, FIP, FOP) were particularly sensitive for nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients. For soil parameters, K is quite sensitive to all the results except the runoff, the four parameters of the soil's nitrogen and phosphorus ratio (SONR, SINR, SOPR, SIPR) were less sensitive to the corresponding results. The simulation and verification results of runoff in Zhongtian watershed show a good accuracy with the deviation less than 10% during 2005- 2010. Research results have a direct reference value on AnnAGNPS model's parameter selection and calibration adjustment. The runoff simulation results of the study area also proved that the sensitivity analysis was practicable to the parameter's adjustment and showed the adaptability to the hydrology simulation in the Taihu Lake basin's hilly region and provide reference for the model's promotion in China.

  20. A Two-Big-Leaf Model for Canopy Temperature, Photosynthesis, and Stomatal Conductance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Yongjiu; Dickinson, Robert E.; Wang, Ying-Ping

    2004-06-01

    simulated fluxes by CLM 2L were compared with the observations, and with the results by the CLM with a single big-leaf scheme (CLM 1L) and by the CLM with the assimilation stomatal conductance scheme of NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM). The results showed that CLM 2L was an improvement compared to the CLM 1L and the CLM for the test cases of tropical evergreen broadleaf land cover and coniferous boreal forest.

  1. Use of plant trait data in the ISBA-A-gs model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvet, Jean-Christophe

    2014-05-01

    ISBA-A-gs is a CO2-responsive LSM (Calvet et al., 1998; Gibelin et al., 2006), able to simulate the diurnal cycle of carbon and water vapour fluxes, together with LAI and soil moisture evolution. The various components of ISBA-A-gs are based to a large extent on meta-analyses of trait data. (1) Photosynthesis: ISBA-A-gs uses the model of Goudriaan et al. (1985) modified by Jacobs (1994) and Jacobs et al. (1996). The main parameter is mesophyll conductance (gm). Leaf-level photosynthesis observations were used together with canopy level flux observations to derive gm together with other key parameters of the Jacobs model, including in drought conditions. This permitted implementing detailed representations of the soil moisture stress. Two different types of drought responses are distinguished for both herbaceous vegetation (Calvet, 2000) and forests (Calvet et al., 2004), depending on the evolution of the water use efficiency (WUE) under moderate stress: WUE increases in the early soil water stress stages in the case of the drought-avoiding response, whereas WUE decreases or remains stable in the case of the drought-tolerant response. (2) Plant growth: the leaf biomass is provided by a growth model (Calvet et al., 1998; Calvet and Soussana, 2001) driven by photosynthesis. In contrast to other land surface models, no GDD-based phenology model is used in ISBA-A-gs, as the vegetation growth and senescence are entirely driven by photosynthesis. The leaf biomass is supplied with the carbon assimilated by photosynthesis, and decreased by a turnover and a respiration term. Turnover is increased by a deficit in photosynthesis. The leaf onset is triggered by sufficient photosynthesis levels and a minimum LAI value is prescribed. The maximum annual value of LAI is prognostic, i.e. it can be predicted by the model. LAI is derived from leaf biomass using SLA values. The latter are derived from the leaf nitrogen concentration using plasticity parameters. (3) CO2 effect: the

  2. Integrating SMOS brightness temperatures with a new conceptual spatially distributed hydrological model for improving flood and drought predictions at large scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostache, Renaud; Rains, Dominik; Chini, Marco; Lievens, Hans; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; Matgen, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Motivated by climate change and its impact on the scarcity or excess of water in many parts of the world, several agencies and research institutions have taken initiatives in monitoring and predicting the hydrologic cycle at a global scale. Such a monitoring/prediction effort is important for understanding the vulnerability to extreme hydrological events and for providing early warnings. This can be based on an optimal combination of hydro-meteorological models and remote sensing, in which satellite measurements can be used as forcing or calibration data or for regularly updating the model states or parameters. Many advances have been made in these domains and the near future will bring new opportunities with respect to remote sensing as a result of the increasing number of spaceborn sensors enabling the large scale monitoring of water resources. Besides of these advances, there is currently a tendency to refine and further complicate physically-based hydrologic models to better capture the hydrologic processes at hand. However, this may not necessarily be beneficial for large-scale hydrology, as computational efforts are therefore increasing significantly. As a matter of fact, a novel thematic science question that is to be investigated is whether a flexible conceptual model can match the performance of a complex physically-based model for hydrologic simulations at large scale. In this context, the main objective of this study is to investigate how innovative techniques that allow for the estimation of soil moisture from satellite data can help in reducing errors and uncertainties in large scale conceptual hydro-meteorological modelling. A spatially distributed conceptual hydrologic model has been set up based on recent developments of the SUPERFLEX modelling framework. As it requires limited computational efforts, this model enables early warnings for large areas. Using as forcings the ERA-Interim public dataset and coupled with the CMEM radiative transfer model

  3. Upscaling from research watersheds: an essential stage of trustworthy general-purpose hydrologic model building

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, J. P.; Semenova, O.; Restrepo, P. J.

    2011-12-01

    Highly instrumented research watersheds provide excellent opportunities for investigating hydrologic processes. A danger, however, is that the processes observed at a particular research watershed are too specific to the watershed and not representative even of the larger scale watershed that contains that particular research watershed. Thus, models developed based on those partial observations may not be suitable for general hydrologic use. Therefore demonstrating the upscaling of hydrologic process from research watersheds to larger watersheds is essential to validate concepts and test model structure. The Hydrograph model has been developed as a general-purpose process-based hydrologic distributed system. In its applications and further development we evaluate the scaling of model concepts and parameters in a wide range of hydrologic landscapes. All models, either lumped or distributed, are based on a discretization concept. It is common practice that watersheds are discretized into so called hydrologic units or hydrologic landscapes possessing assumed homogeneous hydrologic functioning. If a model structure is fixed, the difference in hydrologic functioning (difference in hydrologic landscapes) should be reflected by a specific set of model parameters. Research watersheds provide the possibility for reasonable detailed combining of processes into some typical hydrologic concept such as hydrologic units, hydrologic forms, and runoff formation complexes in the Hydrograph model. And here by upscaling we imply not the upscaling of a single process but upscaling of such unified hydrologic functioning. The simulation of runoff processes for the Dry Creek research watershed, Idaho, USA (27 km2) was undertaken using the Hydrograph model. The information on the watershed was provided by Boise State University and included a GIS database of watershed characteristics and a detailed hydrometeorological observational dataset. The model provided good simulation results in

  4. Novel approach for streamflow forecasting using a hybrid ANFIS-FFA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaseen, Zaher Mundher; Ebtehaj, Isa; Bonakdari, Hossein; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Mohtar, Wan Hanna Melini Wan; Diop, Lamine; El-shafie, Ahmed; Singh, Vijay P.

    2017-11-01

    , and is able to remove the false (inaccurately) forecasted data in the ANFIS model for extremely low flows. The present results have wider implications not only for streamflow forecasting purposes, but also for other hydro-meteorological forecasting variables requiring only the historical data input data, and attaining a greater level of predictive accuracy with the incorporation of the FFA algorithm as an optimization tool in an ANFIS model.

  5. Environmental and Water Quality Operational Studies. The Hydrometeorology of DeGray Lake, Arkansas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-02-01

    structure, pumped storage hydropower capabil- ity, and the opportunity for cooperative interagency involvement ( Westerdahl et al. 1975). 3. The...16. 56 %j " .. -II/nnr ,, .. l~ n = , . . , . ...... . oo l& _ , , Westerdahl , H. E., Perrier, E. R., Thornton, K. W., and Eley, R. L. 1975 (Dec

  6. The great drought of 1507 in Hungary: Combined hydrometeorological extremes and their reported consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A contemporary Buda citizen marked 1507 in his diary as the year of the very great drought in Hungary, resulting a significant shortage of crops, wine and hay. In the same time, a rather extensive set of evidence about this drought - combined with other natural hazards such as hails, thunderstorms, (convective) rains, flood(s) - and their consequences, concerning a large area in the central and north-eastern parts of the Carpathian Basin, were also described in the account book of the bishop of Eger. In the poster presentation, the following questions are discussed in more detail: 1) the types of the hazards and extreme events that affected the study area in 1507 (and probably also in 1506 and 1508); 2) locations and the extension of areas affected by the extreme events: more (and less) affected areas, spatial differences and overlaps; 3) damages and other immediate consequences: material loss (building), bad harvests (e.g. grain, honey), high prices; 4) multiannual consequences and the importance of 1508: further natural hazards, shortages of food and animal products, poverty, tax reduction - and the perception of these events; 5) Central European parallels (e.g. drought in the southern German areas, destructive hailstorms in Austria). The presented case study provides an especially well-documented example (reported in different contemporary source types) for a late medieval drought year (or dry period) occurred in East Central Europe: the drought was accompanied by other, mainly convective events that affected agriculture and society in numerous ways. Based on the sometimes more detailed, sometimes fragmentary information we can state that - in spite of the general reference(s) on the "very great drought in the country" - considerable spatial differences occurred both concerning the severity and the type of events that affected extensive areas (but not necessarily the entire country that covered most of the Carpathian Basin at that time).

  7. Genetic analysis of seasonal runoff based on automatic techniques of hydrometeorological data processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kireeva, Maria; Sazonov, Alexey; Rets, Ekaterina; Ezerova, Natalia; Frolova, Natalia; Samsonov, Timofey

    2017-04-01

    Detection of the rivers' feeding type is a complex and multifactor task. Such partitioning should be based, on the one hand, on the genesis of the feeding water, on the other hand, on its physical path. At the same time it should consider relationship of the feeding type with corresponding phase of the water regime. Due to the above difficulties and complexity of the approach, there are many different variants of separation of flow hydrograph for feeding types. The most common method is extraction of so called basic component which in one way or another reflects groundwater feeding of the river. In this case, the selection most often is based on the principle of local minima or graphic separation of this component. However, in this case neither origin of the water nor corresponding phase of water regime is considered. In this paper, the authors offer a method of complex automated analysis of genetic components of the river's feeding together with the separation of specific phases of the water regime. The objects of the study are medium and large rivers of European Russia having a pronounced spring flood, formed due to melt water, and summer-autumn and winter low water which is periodically interrupted by rain or thaw flooding. The method is based on genetic separation of hydrograph proposed in 1960s years by B. I. Kudelin. This technique is considered for large rivers having hydraulic connection with groundwater horizons during flood. For better detection of floods genesis the analysis involves reanalysis data on temperature and precipitation. Separation is based on the following fundamental graphic-analytical principles: • Ground feeding during the passage of flood peak tends to zero • Beginning of the flood is determined as the exceeding of critical value of low water discharge • Flood periods are determined on the basis of exceeding the critical low-water discharge; they relate to thaw in case of above-zero temperatures • During thaw and rain floods, ground feeding is determined using interpolation of values before and after the flood • Floods during the rise and fall of high water are determined using depletion curves plotting • Groundwater component of runoff is divided into dynamic and static parts. The algorithm of subdivision described was formalized in the form of a program code in Fortran, with the connection of additional modules of R-Studio. The use of two languages allows, on the one hand, to speed up the processing of a large array of daily water discharges, on the other hand, to facilitate visualization and interpretation of results. The algorithm includes the selection of 15 calibration parameters describing the characteristics of each watershed. Verification and calibration of the program was carried out for 20 rivers of European Russia. According to calculations, there is a significant increase in the groundwater flow component in the most part of watershed and an increase in the role of flooding as the phase of the water regime as a whole. This research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (contract No. 16-35-60080).

  8. Hydro-meteorological functioning of tropical montane cloud forests in the Orinoco River basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ramírez Correal, Beatriz Helena

    2018-01-01

    The hydrologic interactions between the atmosphere, land cover and soil largely determine water availability to sustain ecosystems’and anthropogenic demands. Therefore, understanding how these interactions operate is required to design strategies to reduce or cope with the potential hydrological

  9. Oceanographic validity of buffer zones for the east coast of India: A hydrometeorological perspective

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.

    , The Gazette of India, Not i- fication, S.O. No. 114(E), 20 February 1991. 37. Fischer, D. W. and Arredondo, M. C., Municipal coastal hazard planning: Los Angeles and Orange County city responses, Cal i- fornia. J. Coast. Res ., 1999, 15 , 974 ? 984...

  10. Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

    2018-04-01

    The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It thus calls for prudence in devising appropriate intervention in the planning and sustainable development of the basin water resources.

  11. Effects of Seasonal Land Surface Conditions on Hydrometeorological Dynamics in South-western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-21

    rain gauges to measure precipitation , and 1 internal mini-flume to measure runoff . 9 Fig. 8. Processed fluxes measured at the two eddy...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Arid and semiarid landscapes in regions with seasonal precipitation experience dramatic changes that alter land surface...semiarid landscapes in regions with seasonal precipitation experience dramatic changes that alter land surface conditions, including soil moisture

  12. Impacts of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Volta Basin, West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oguntunde, Philip G.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lischeid, Gunnar

    2017-08-01

    This study examines the characteristics of drought in the Volta River Basin (VRB), investigates the influence of drought on the streamflow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on the drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past and future climates (1970-2013, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100) were analyzed for the study. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were used to quantify runoff. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is generally consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA ensemble medians (RMED) give realistic simulations of drought characteristics and area extent over the Basin and the sub-catchments in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and spatial extent are projected over VRB for SPEI and SPI, but the magnitude of increase is higher with SPEI than with SPI. Drought frequency (events per decade) may be magnified by a factor of 1.2 (2046-2065) to 1.6 (2081-2100) compared to the present day episodes in the basin. The coupling between streamflow and drought episodes was very strong (P planning how to minimize the negative impacts of future climate change that could have consequences on agriculture, water resources and energy supply.

  13. Real-Time Hydrometeorological Forecasting and Analysis from Radar and Satellite Observations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hoffman, Ross

    2000-01-01

    ...) utilizes state-of-the-art precipitation and hydrological forecasting techniques; but, (c) overcomes the inherent limitations of these approaches by optimally merging the results of the different techniques to provide a robust solution...

  14. Environmental tritium as a hydrometeorologic tool in the Roswell basin, New Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rabinowitz, D.D.; Gross, F.W.; Holmes, C.R.

    1977-01-01

    Tritium analyses of precipitation collected in central New Mexico in the years 1957-1968 were combined with precipitation distribution patterns in space and time. An empirical tritium input function (effective fallout) was constructed for the Roswell artesian basin in southeastern New Mexico. Rather than linearly related to precipitation, recharge is proportional to a sliding function of the mean annual precipitation. Proper selection of precipitation measuring stations was of critical importance in constructing the tritium input function

  15. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

  16. Prediction of radionuclide migration in the Pripyat river and Dnieper reservoirs and decision support of water protection measures on the basis of mathematical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morozov, A.A.; Zheleznyak, M.J.; Voitsekhovich, O.; Aliev, K.A.; Bilotkach, U.V.

    1997-01-01

    Since May 1986 in Kiev in the Institute of Mathematical Machines and System Problems, Cybernetics Center of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has been started the development of the computerised system for processing of Dniper basin radiological monitoring data and modelling of radionuclide dispersion in rivers and reservoirs. For this work it was established the Interdisciplinary Working Group that joints the specialists from the State Committee of Water Resources, State Committee of Hydrometeorology, National Academy of Sciences and other Ukrainian institutions. The objectives of the computerized system development were formulated by the State Emergency Commission and later by the Ukrainian Minchernobyl as follows: reliable evaluation of the surface water contamination at Pripyat River and Dnieper River on the basis of monitoring data from the different institutions; seasonal and long-term prediction of the surface water radioactive contamination; decision support for the aquatic post-accidental countermeasures, directed to diminish the radionuclides fluxes from the Chernobyl area through the Pripyat River and Dnieper Reservoirs; decision support for the countermeasures directed on changes in the water assumption

  17. Assessment of the sealing system of an ilw transport container in a 9m regulatory impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sievwright, R.W.T.; Gray, I.L.S.; Bernasconi, D.J.; McGuinn, P.; Tso, C.F.

    1998-01-01

    UK Nirex Ltd is developing a range of reusable shielded transport containers (RSTCs) to ensure the safe transport of immobilised intermediate level waste to a future UK deep repository for disposal. The RSTCs use an inset lid for mechanical strength and radiation shielding, but the containment boundary is provided by a separate lid seal member (LSM). The LSM is a semi-flexible steel diaphragm surrounded by a rim which carries a double O-ring seal. The LSM rim is clamped to a flat mating surface on the container body. A finite element model has been developed for an RSTC with a wall thickness of 285 mm, in order to assess its containment performance in 9m regulatory drop tests (IAEA 1996). The challenge was to predict the size of small gaps that might appear between the LSM rim and the RSTC body seal face ; this level of detail would be 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than the displacements experienced in the impact zone. The model was first validated against a series of one-third scale model drop tests of the RSTC. The validated model was then analysed for 9m regulatory impacts in the six worst impact attitudes. The behavior of the LSM was assessed for each attitude and the seal face (gaps) between the LSM and the body were determined. Although small gaps of about 0.5 mm are predicted, it is likely that containment would be preserved. (authors)

  18. Multiple-resolution Modeling of flood processes in urban catchments using WRF-Hydro: A Case Study in south Louisiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, H.; Habib, E. H.

    2017-12-01

    In August 2016, the city of Lafayette and many other urban centers in south Louisiana experienced catastrophic flooding resulting from prolonged rainfall. Statewide, this historic storm displaced more than 30,000 people from their homes, resulted in damages up to $8.7 billion, put rescue workers at risk, interrupted institutions of education and business, and worst of all, resulted in the loss of life of at least 13 Louisiana residents. With growing population and increasing signs of climate change, the frequency of major floods and severe storms is expected to increase, as will the impacts of these events on our communities. Local communities need improved capabilities for forecasting flood events, monitoring of flood impacts on roads and key infrastructure, and effectively communicating real-time flood dangers at scales that are useful to the public. The current study presents the application of the WRF-Hydro modeling system to represent integrated hydrologic, hydraulic and hydrometeorological processes that drive flooding in urban basins at temporal and spatial scales that can be useful to local communities. The study site is the 25- mile2 Coulee mine catchment in Lafayette, south Louisiana. The catchment includes two tributaries with natural streams located within mostly agricultural lands. The catchment crosses the I-10 highway and through the metropolitan area of the City of Lafayette into a man-made channel, which eventually drains into the Vermilion River and the Gulf of Mexico. Due to its hydrogeomorphic setting, local and rapid diversification of land uses, low elevation, and interdependent infrastructure, the integrated modeling of this coulee is considered a challenge. A nested multi-scale model is being built using the WRF-HYDRO, with 500m and 10m resolutions for the NOAH land-surface model and diffusive wave terrain routing grids, respectively.

  19. Cross-evaluation of modelled and remotely sensed surface soil moisture with in situ data in southwestern France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Albergel

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The SMOSMANIA soil moisture network in Southwestern France is used to evaluate modelled and remotely sensed soil moisture products. The surface soil moisture (SSM measured in situ at 5 cm permits to evaluate SSM from the SIM operational hydrometeorological model of Météo-France and to perform a cross-evaluation of the normalised SSM estimates derived from coarse-resolution (25 km active microwave observations from the ASCAT scatterometer instrument (C-band, onboard METOP, issued by EUMETSAT and resampled to the Discrete Global Grid (DGG, 12.5 km gridspacing by TU-Wien (Vienna University of Technology over a two year period (2007–2008. A downscaled ASCAT product at one kilometre scale is evaluated as well, together with operational soil moisture products of two meteorological services, namely the ALADIN numerical weather prediction model (NWP and the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS analysis of Météo-France and ECMWF, respectively. In addition to the operational SSM analysis of ECMWF, a second analysis using a simplified extended Kalman filter and assimilating the ASCAT SSM estimates is tested. The ECMWF SSM estimates correlate better with the in situ observations than the Météo-France products. This may be due to the higher ability of the multi-layer land surface model used at ECMWF to represent the soil moisture profile. However, the SSM derived from SIM corresponds to a thin soil surface layer and presents good correlations with ASCAT SSM estimates for the very first centimetres of soil. At ECMWF, the use of a new data assimilation technique, which is able to use the ASCAT SSM, improves the SSM and the root-zone soil moisture analyses.

  20. Radiation environmental real-time monitoring and dispersion modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovacik, Andrej; Bartokova, Ivana; Melicherova, Terezia; Omelka, Jozef

    2015-01-01

    The MicroStep-MIS system of real-time radiation monitoring, which provides a turn-key solution for measurement, acquisition, processing, reporting, archiving and displaying of various radiation data, is described and discussed in detail. The qualities, long-term stability of measurement and sensitivity of the RPSG-05 probe are illustrated on its use within the radiation monitoring network of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute and within the monitoring network in the United Arab Emirates. (orig.)

  1. Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP continental hydrological system used in the CNRM-CM6 climate model for the next CMIP6 exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decharme, Bertrand; Vergnes, Jean-Pierre; Minvielle, Marie; Colin, Jeanne; Delire, Christine

    2016-04-01

    The land surface hydrology represents an active component of the climate system. It is likely to influence the water and energy exchanges at the land surface, the ocean salinity and temperature at the mouth of the largest rivers, and the climate at least at the regional scale. In climate models, the continental hydrology is simulated via Land Surface Models (LSM), which compute water and energy budgets at the surface, coupled to River Routing Model (RRM), which convert the runoff simulated by the LSMs into river discharge in order to transfer the continental fresh water into the oceans and then to close the global hydrological cycle. Validating these Continental Hydrological Systems (CHS) at the global scale is therefore a crucial task, which requires off-line simulations driven by realistic atmospheric fluxes to avoid the systematic biases commonly found in the atmospheric models. In the CNRM-CM6 climate model of Météo-France, that will be used for the next Coupled Climate Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) exercise, the land surface hydrology is simulated using the ISBA-TRIP CHS coupled via the OASIS-MCT coupler. The ISBA LSM solves explicitly the one dimensional Fourier law for soil temperature and the mixed form of the Richards equation for soil moisture using a 14-layers discretization over 12m depths. For the snowpack, a discretization using 12 layers allows the explicit representation of some snow key processes as its viscosity, its compaction due to wind, its age and its albedo on the visible and near infrared spectra. The TRIP RRM uses a global river channel network at 0.5° resolution. It is based on a three prognostic equations for the surface stream water, the seasonal floodplains, and the groundwater. The streamflow velocity is computed using the Maning's formula. The floodplain reservoir fills when the river height exceeds the river bankfull height and vice-versa. The flood interacts with the ISBA soil hydrology through infiltration and with

  2. Development of ALARO-Climate regional climate model for a very high resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skalak, Petr; Farda, Ales; Brozkova, Radmila; Masek, Jan

    2014-05-01

    ALARO-Climate is a new regional climate model (RCM) derived from the ALADIN LAM model family. It is based on the numerical weather prediction model ALARO and developed at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The model is expected to able to work in the so called "grey zone" physics (horizontal resolution of 4 - 7 km) and at the same time retain its ability to be operated in resolutions in between 20 and 50 km, which are typical for contemporary generation of regional climate models. Here we present the main results of the RCM ALARO-Climate model simulations in 25 and 6.25 km resolutions on the longer time-scale (1961-1990). The model was driven by the ERA-40 re-analyses and run on the integration domain of ~ 2500 x 2500 km size covering the central Europe. The simulated model climate was compared with the gridded observation of air temperature (mean, maximum, minimum) and precipitation from the E-OBS version dataset 8. Other simulated parameters (e.g., cloudiness, radiation or components of water cycle) were compared to the ERA-40 re-analyses. The validation of the first ERA-40 simulation in both, 25 km and 6.25 km resolutions, revealed significant cold biases in all seasons and overestimation of precipitation in the selected Central Europe target area (0° - 30° eastern longitude ; 40° - 60° northern latitude). The differences between these simulations were small and thus revealed a robustness of the model's physical parameterization on the resolution change. The series of 25 km resolution simulations with several model adaptations was carried out to study their effect on the simulated properties of climate variables and thus possibly identify a source of major errors in the simulated climate. The current investigation suggests the main reason for biases is related to the model physic. Acknowledgements: This study was performed within the frame of projects ALARO (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation) and CzechGlobe Centre (CZ.1

  3. Evaluation of root water uptake in the ISBA-A-gs land surface model using agricultural yield statistics over France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canal, N.; Calvet, J.-C.; Decharme, B.; Carrer, D.; Lafont, S.; Pigeon, G.

    2014-12-01

    The simulation of root water uptake in land surface models is affected by large uncertainties. The difficulty in mapping soil depth and in describing the capacity of plants to develop a rooting system is a major obstacle to the simulation of the terrestrial water cycle and to the representation of the impacts of drought. In this study, long time series of agricultural statistics are used to evaluate and constrain root water uptake models. The inter-annual variability of cereal grain yield and permanent grassland dry matter yield is simulated over France by the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere, CO2-reactive (ISBA-A-gs) generic land surface model (LSM). The two soil profile schemes available in the model are used to simulate the above-ground biomass (Bag) of cereals and grasslands: a two-layer force-restore (FR-2L) bulk reservoir model and a multi-layer diffusion (DIF) model. The DIF model is implemented with or without deep soil layers below the root zone. The evaluation of the various root water uptake models is achieved by using the French agricultural statistics of Agreste over the 1994-2010 period at 45 cropland and 48 grassland départements, for a range of rooting depths. The number of départements where the simulated annual maximum Bag presents a significant correlation with the yield observations is used as a metric to benchmark the root water uptake models. Significant correlations (p value neutral impact of the most refined versions of the model is found with respect to the simplified soil hydrology scheme. This shows that efforts should be made in future studies to reduce other sources of uncertainty, e.g. by using a more detailed soil and root density profile description together with satellite vegetation products. It is found that modelling additional subroot-zone base flow soil layers does not improve (and may even degrade) the representation of the inter-annual variability of the vegetation above-ground biomass. These results are

  4. Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia

    2017-04-01

    The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought