WorldWideScience

Sample records for model lsm hydrometeorological

  1. Validation of limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring - is a separate validation group required?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Proost, J. H.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring are usually validated in a separate group of patients, according to published guidelines. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validation of LSM by comparing independent validation with cross-validation us

  2. Representing vegetation processes in hydrometeorological simulations using the WRF model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Joakim Refslund

    -ments are still needed in the representation of the land surface variability and of some key land surface processes. This thesis explores two possibilities for improving the near-surface model predictions using the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In the _rst approach, data from satellite......For accurate predictions of weather and climate, it is important that the land surface and its processes are well represented. In a mesoscale model the land surface processes are calculated in a land surface model (LSM). These pro-cesses include exchanges of energy, water and momentum between...... the land surface components, such as vegetation and soil, and their interactions with the atmosphere. The land surface processes are complex and vary in time and space. Signi_cant e_ort by the land surface community has therefore been invested in improving the LSMs over the recent decades. However, improve...

  3. Box photosynthesis modeling results for WRF/CMAQ LSM

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Box Photosynthesis model simulations for latent heat and ozone at 6 different FLUXNET sites. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Ran, L., J....

  4. Incorporating Sentinel-2-like remote sensing products in the hydrometeorological modelling over an agricultural area in south west France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivalland, Vincent; Gascoin, Simon; Etchanchu, Jordi; Coustau, Mathieu; Cros, Jérôme; Tallec, Tiphaine

    2016-04-01

    The Sentinel-2 mission will enable to monitor the land cover and the vegetation phenology at high-resolution (HR) every 5 days. However, current Land Surface Models (LSM) typically use land cover and vegetation parameters derived from previous low to mid resolution satellite missions. Here we studied the effect of introducing Sentinel-2-like data in the simulation of the land surface energy and water fluxes in a region dominated by cropland. Simulations were performed with the ISBA-SURFEX LSM, which is used in the operational hydrometeorological chain of Meteo-France for hydrological forecasts and drought monitoring. By default, SURFEX vegetation land surface parameters and temporal evolution are from the ECOCLIMAP II European database mostly derived from MODIS products at 1 km resolution. The model was applied to an experimental area of 30 km by 30 km in south west France. In this area the resolution of ECOCLIMAP is coarser than the typical size of a crop field. This means that several crop types can be mixed in a pixel. In addition ECOCLIMAP provides a climatology of the vegetation phenology and thus does not account for the interannual effects of the climate and land management on the crop growth. In this work, we used a series of 26 Formosat-2 images at 8-m resolution acquired in 2006. From this dataset, we derived a land cover map and a leaf area index map (LAI) at each date, which were substituted to the ECOCLIMAP land cover map and the LAI maps. The model output water and energy fluxes were compared to a standard simulation using ECOCLIMAP only and to in situ measurements of soil moisture, latent and sensible heat fluxes. The results show that the introduction of the HR products improved the timing of the evapotranspiration. The impact was the most visible on the crops having a growing season in summer (maize, sunflower), because the growth period is more sensitive to the climate.

  5. Optimal moment determination in POME-copula based hydrometeorological dependence modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dengfeng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi

    2017-07-01

    Copula has been commonly applied in multivariate modelling in various fields where marginal distribution inference is a key element. To develop a flexible, unbiased mathematical inference framework in hydrometeorological multivariate applications, the principle of maximum entropy (POME) is being increasingly coupled with copula. However, in previous POME-based studies, determination of optimal moment constraints has generally not been considered. The main contribution of this study is the determination of optimal moments for POME for developing a coupled optimal moment-POME-copula framework to model hydrometeorological multivariate events. In this framework, margins (marginals, or marginal distributions) are derived with the use of POME, subject to optimal moment constraints. Then, various candidate copulas are constructed according to the derived margins, and finally the most probable one is determined, based on goodness-of-fit statistics. This optimal moment-POME-copula framework is applied to model the dependence patterns of three types of hydrometeorological events: (i) single-site streamflow-water level; (ii) multi-site streamflow; and (iii) multi-site precipitation, with data collected from Yichang and Hankou in the Yangtze River basin, China. Results indicate that the optimal-moment POME is more accurate in margin fitting and the corresponding copulas reflect a good statistical performance in correlation simulation. Also, the derived copulas, capturing more patterns which traditional correlation coefficients cannot reflect, provide an efficient way in other applied scenarios concerning hydrometeorological multivariate modelling.

  6. A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal conductance model for meteorology and air quality modeling with WRF/CMAQ PX LSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorol...

  7. A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal conductance model for meteorology and air quality modeling with WRF/CMAQ PX LSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorol...

  8. Two-phase nanofluid condensation and heat transfer modeling using least square method (LSM) for industrial applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatami, M.; Mosayebidorcheh, S.; Jing, D.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, two-phase Nanofluid condensation and heat transfer analysis over a vertical plate under gravity and between two parallel plates under magnetic force are investigated respectively using Least Square Method (LSM) and numerical method. After presenting the governing equations and solving them by LSM, the accuracy of results is examined by fourth order Runge-Kutta numerical method. Modeling results show that the condensate film thickness after condensation is reduced and therefore, the rate of heat transfer is enhanced by the addition of nanoparticles to the regular fluid. Effect of different nanoparticles and constant numbers on the temperature/velocity/concentration profiles as well as Nusselt number and boundary layer thickness, are also investigated. For instance, it was found that TiO2 and Ag have maximum boundary layer thicknesses and Nusselt number, respectively. By considering the magnetic field effect, it is also found that nanoparticles concentration can be controlled by changing the Hartmann number which, in turn, leads to different condensation and heat transfer properties.

  9. Mathematical Modelling of Thermal Process to Aquatic Environment with Different Hydrometeorological Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alibek Issakhov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the mathematical model of the thermal process from thermal power plant to aquatic environment of the reservoir-cooler, which is located in the Pavlodar region, 17 Km to the north-east of Ekibastuz town. The thermal process in reservoir-cooler with different hydrometeorological conditions is considered, which is solved by three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations and temperature equation for an incompressible flow in a stratified medium. A numerical method based on the projection method, divides the problem into three stages. At the first stage, it is assumed that the transfer of momentum occurs only by convection and diffusion. Intermediate velocity field is solved by fractional steps method. At the second stage, three-dimensional Poisson equation is solved by the Fourier method in combination with tridiagonal matrix method (Thomas algorithm. Finally, at the third stage, it is expected that the transfer is only due to the pressure gradient. Numerical method determines the basic laws of the hydrothermal processes that qualitatively and quantitatively are approximated depending on different hydrometeorological conditions.

  10. Advances in remote sensing and modeling of terrestrial hydro-meteorological processes and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remote sensing is an indispensable tool for monitoring and detecting the evolution of the Earth’s hydro-meteorological processes. Fast-growing remote sensing observations and technologies have been a primary impetus to advancing our knowledge of hydro-meteorological processes and their extremes ove...

  11. Dynamic Changes in LSM Nanoparticles on YSZ: A Model System for Non-stationary SOFC Cathode Behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woo, L Y; Glass, R S; Gorte, R J; Orme, C A; Nelson, A J

    2009-01-05

    The interaction between nanoparticles of strontium-doped lanthanum manganite (LSM) and single crystal yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) was investigated using atomic force microscopy (AFM), x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM)/energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDX). Nanoparticles of LSM were deposited directly onto single crystal YSZ substrates (100) using an ultrasonic spray nozzle. As samples were annealed from 850 C to 1250 C, nanoparticles gradually decreased in height and eventually disappeared completely. Subsequent reduction in H{sub 2}/H{sub 2}O at 700 C resulted in the reappearance of nanoparticles. Studies were carried out on identical regions of the sample allowing the same nanoparticles to be characterized at different temperatures. Morphological changes indicate the formation of a thin layer of LSM, and XPS results support the observation by indicating an increase in signal from the La and Sr and a decrease in signal from the Y and Zr with increasing temperature. SEM/EDX was used to verify that the nanoparticles in the reduced sample contained La. The changes in the LSM/YSZ morphology may be important in explaining the non-stationary behavior observed in operating fuel cells. The thin layer of LSM initially results in poor cathode performance; reducing conditions then lead to film disruptions, indicating nano/microporosity, that increase oxygen ion diffusion and performance.

  12. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picciotti, E.; Marzano, F. S.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Kalogiros, J.; Fessas, Y.; Volpi, A.; Cazac, V.; Pace, R.; Cinque, G.; Bernardini, L.; De Sanctis, K.; Di Fabio, S.; Montopoli, M.; Anagnostou, M. N.; Telleschi, A.; Dimitriou, E.; Stella, J.

    2013-05-01

    Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band) has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band) and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative integrated decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) and the Army Corps

  13. Coupling X-band dual-polarized mini-radars and hydro-meteorological forecast models: the HYDRORAD project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Picciotti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-meteorological hazards like convective outbreaks leading to torrential rain and floods are among the most critical environmental issues world-wide. In that context weather radar observations have proven to be very useful in providing information on the spatial distribution of rainfall that can support early warning of floods. However, quantitative precipitation estimation by radar is subjected to many limitations and uncertainties. The use of dual-polarization at high frequency (i.e. X-band has proven particularly useful for mitigating some of the limitation of operational systems, by exploiting the benefit of easiness to transport and deploy and the high spatial and temporal resolution achievable at small antenna sizes. New developments on X-band dual-polarization technology in recent years have received the interest of scientific and operational communities in these systems. New enterprises are focusing on the advancement of cost-efficient mini-radar network technology, based on high-frequency (mainly X-band and low-power weather radar systems for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological forecasting. Within the above context, the main objective of the HYDRORAD project was the development of an innovative mbox{integrated} decision support tool for weather monitoring and hydro-meteorological applications. The integrated system tool is based on a polarimetric X-band mini-radar network which is the core of the decision support tool, a novel radar products generator and a hydro-meteorological forecast modelling system that ingests mini-radar rainfall products to forecast precipitation and floods. The radar products generator includes algorithms for attenuation correction, hydrometeor classification, a vertical profile reflectivity correction, a new polarimetric rainfall estimators developed for mini-radar observations, and short-term nowcasting of convective cells. The hydro-meteorological modelling system includes the Mesoscale Model 5

  14. Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2011-01-01

    The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling

  15. Influence of hydro-meteorological data spatial aggregation on streamflow modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Seibert, Jan

    2016-10-01

    Data availability is important for virtually any purpose in hydrology. While some parts of the world continue to be under-monitored, other areas are experiencing an increased availability of high-resolution data. The use of the highest available resolution has always been preferred and many efforts have been made to maximize the information content of data and thus improve its predictive power and reduce the costs of maintenance of hydrometric sensor networks. In the light of ever-increasing data resolution, however, it is important to assess the added value of using the highest resolution available. In this study we present an assessment of the relative importance of hydro-meteorological data resolution for hydrological modelling. We used a case study with high-resolution data availability to investigate the influence of using models calibrated with different levels of spatially aggregated meteorological input data to estimate streamflow for different periods and at different locations. We found site specific variations, but model parameterizations calibrated using sub-catchment specific meteorological input data tended to produce better streamflow estimates, with model efficiency values being up to 0.35 efficiency units higher than those calibrated with catchment averaged meteorological data. We also found that basin characteristics other than catchment area have little effect on the performance of model parameterizations applied in different locations than the calibration site. Finally, we found that using an increased number of discharge data locations has a larger impact on model calibration efficiency than using spatially specific meteorological data. The results of this study contribute to improve the knowledge on assessing data needs for water management in terms of adequate data type and level of spatial aggregation.

  16. EDgE multi-model hydro-meteorological seasonal hindcast experiments over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Rakovec, Oldrich; Wood, Eric; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Prudhomme, Christel

    2017-04-01

    Extreme hydrometeorological events (e.g., floods, droughts and heat waves) caused serious damage to society and infrastructures over Europe during the past decades. Developing a seamless and skillful operational seasonal forecasting system of these extreme events is therefore a key tool for short-term decision making at local and regional scales. The EDgE project funded by the Copernicus programme (C3S) provides an unique opportunity to investigate the skill of a newly created large multi-model hydro-meteorological ensemble for predicting extreme events over the Pan-EU domain at a higher resolution 5×5 km2. Two state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems were chosen for this project. Two models from the North American MultiModel ensemble (NMME) with 22 realizations, and two models provided by the ECMWF with 30 realizations. All models provide daily forcings (P, Ta, Tmin, Tmax) of the the Pan-EU at 1°. Downscaling has been carried out with the MTCLIM algorithm (Bohn et al. 2013) and external drift Kriging using elevation as drift to induce orographic effects. In this project, four high-resolution seamless hydrologic simulations with the mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm), Noah-MP, VIC and PCR-GLOBWB have been completed for the common hindcast period of 1993-2012 resulting in an ensemble size of 208 realizations. Key indicators are focussing on six terrestrial Essential Climate Variables (tECVs): river runoff, soil moisture, groundwater recharge, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalent. Impact Indicators have been co-designed with stakeholders in Norway (hydro-power), UK (water supply), and Spain (river basin authority) to provide an improved information for decision making. The Indicators encompass diverse information such as the occurrence of high and low streamflow percentiles (floods, and hydrological drought) and lower percentiles of top soil moisture (agricultural drought) among others. Preliminary results evaluated at study sites in Norway

  17. Partitioning internal variability and model uncertainty components in a multireplicate multimodel ensemble of hydrometeorological future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hingray, Benoit; Saïd, Mériem; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Gailhlard, Joël; Mezghani, Abdelkader

    2014-05-01

    A simple and robust framework was proposed by Hingray and Mériem (2013) for the partitioning of the different components of internal variability and model uncertainty in a multireplicate multimodel ensemble (MRMME) of climate projections obtained for a suite of statistical downscaling models (SDMs) and global climate models (GCMs). It is based on the quasi-ergodic assumption for transient climate simulations. Model uncertainty components are estimated from the noise-free signals of each modeling chain using a two-way ANOVA framework. The residuals from the noise-free signal are used to estimate the large and small scale internal variability (IV) components associated with each considered GCM/SDM configuration. This framework makes it possible to take into account all runs and replicates available from any climate ensemble of opportunity. This quasi-ergodic ANOVA framework was applied to the MRMME of hydrometeorological simulations produced for the Upper Durance River basin (French Alps) over the 1860-2100 period within the RIWER2030 research project (http://www.lthe.fr/RIWER2030/). The different uncertainty sources were quantified as a function of lead time for projected changes in temperature, precipitation, evaporation losses, snow cover and discharges (Lafaysse et al., 2013). For temperature, GCM uncertainty prevails and, as opposed to IV, SDM uncertainty is non-negligible. Significant warming and in turn significant changes are predicted for evaporation, snow cover and seasonality of discharges. For precipitation, GCM and SDM uncertainty components are of the same order. Despite high model uncertainty, the non-zero climate change response of simulation chains is significant and annual precipitation is expected to decrease. However, high values are obtained for the large and small scale components of IV, inherited respectively from the GCMs and the different replicates of a given SDM. The same applies for annual discharge. The uncertainty in values that could

  18. Monitoring and forecasting of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena on the basis of conjuctive use of remote sensing data and the results of numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voronov, Nikolai; Dikinis, Alexandr

    2015-04-01

    Modern technologies of remote sensing (RS) open wide opportunities for monitoring and increasing the accuracy and forecast-time interval of forecasts of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena. The RS data do not supersede ground-based observations, but they allow to solve new problems in the area of hydrological and meteorological monitoring and forecasting. In particular, the data of satellite, aviation or radar observations may be used for increasing of special-temporal discreteness of hydrometeorological observations. Besides, what seems very promising is conjunctive use of the data of remote sensing, ground-based observations and the "output" of hydrodynamical weather models, which allows to increase significantly the accuracy and forecast-time interval of forecasts of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena. Modern technologies of monitoring and forecasting of hazardous of hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena on the basis of conjunctive use of the data of satellite, aviation and ground-based observations, as well as the output data of hydrodynamical weather models are considered. It is noted that an important and promising method of monitoring is bioindication - surveillance over response of the biota to external influence and behavior of animals that are able to be presentient of convulsions of nature. Implement of the described approaches allows to reduce significantly both the damage caused by certain hazardous hydrological and meteorological phenomena and the general level of hydrometeorological vulnerability of certain different-purpose objects and the RF economy as a whole.

  19. A hydrometeorological model intercomparison as a tool to quantify the forecast uncertainty in a medium size basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Amengual

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available In the framework of AMPHORE, an INTERREG III B EU project devoted to the hydrometeorological modeling study of heavy precipitation episodes resulting in flood events and the improvement of the operational hydrometeorological forecasts for the prediction and prevention of flood risks in the Western Mediterranean area, a hydrometeorological model intercomparison has been carried out, in order to estimate the uncertainties associated with the discharge predictions. The analysis is performed for an intense precipitation event selected as a case study within the project, which affected northern Italy and caused a flood event in the upper Reno river basin, a medium size catchment in the Emilia-Romagna Region.

    Two different hydrological models have been implemented over the basin: HEC-HMS and TOPKAPI which are driven in two ways. Firstly, stream-flow simulations obtained by using precipitation observations as input data are evaluated, in order to be aware of the performance of the two hydrological models. Secondly, the rainfall-runoff models have been forced with rainfall forecast fields provided by mesoscale atmospheric model simulations in order to evaluate the reliability of the discharge forecasts resulting by the one-way coupling. The quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs are provided by the numerical mesoscale models COSMO and MM5.

    Furthermore, different configurations of COSMO and MM5 have been adopted, trying to improve the description of the phenomena determining the precipitation amounts. In particular, the impacts of using different initial and boundary conditions, different mesoscale models and of increasing the horizontal model resolutions are investigated. The accuracy of QPFs is assessed in a threefold procedure. First, these are checked against the observed spatial rainfall accumulations over northern Italy. Second, the spatial and temporal simulated distributions are also examined over the catchment of interest

  20. Long-Term Stability of LSM-YSZ Based Cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baqué, Laura; Jørgensen, Peter Stanley; Hansen, Karin Vels

    2013-01-01

    A transmission line based model was successfully applied to study the ageing effect in LSM-YSZ cathodes after being exposed to humidified air at 900 °C for up to 3000 h. A decrease in the YSZ conductivity was correlated with the formation of the less conducting monoclinic zirconia. The amount of La......2Zr2O7, present in the non-aged samples, decreases with ageing time increasing the number of active sites for charge transfer between LSM and YSZ as well as the LSM conductivity values....

  1. Advancing hydrometeorological prediction capabilities through standards-based cyberinfrastructure development: The community WRF-Hydro modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    gochis, David; Parodi, Antonio; Hooper, Rick; Jha, Shantenu; Zaslavsky, Ilya

    2013-04-01

    The need for improved assessments and predictions of many key environmental variables is driving a multitude of model development efforts in the geosciences. The proliferation of weather and climate impacts research is driving a host of new environmental prediction model development efforts as society seeks to understand how climate does and will impact key societal activities and resources and, in turn, how human activities influence climate and the environment. This surge in model development has highlighted the role of model coupling as a fundamental activity itself and, at times, a significant bottleneck in weather and climate impacts research. This talk explores some of the recent activities and progress that has been made in assessing the attributes of various approaches to the coupling of physics-based process models for hydrometeorology. One example modeling system that is emerging from these efforts is the community 'WRF-Hydro' modeling system which is based on the modeling architecture of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). An overview of the structural components of WRF-Hydro will be presented as will results from several recent applications which include the prediction of flash flooding events in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region of the U.S. and along the Ligurian coastline in the northern Mediterranean. Efficient integration of the coupled modeling system with distributed infrastructure for collecting and sharing hydrometeorological observations is one of core themes of the work. Specifically, we aim to demonstrate how data management infrastructures used in the US and Europe, in particular data sharing technologies developed within the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System and UNIDATA, can interoperate based on international standards for data discovery and exchange, such as standards developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium and adopted by GEOSS. The data system we envision will help manage WRF-Hydro prediction model data flows, enabling

  2. Hydrometeorological Automated Data System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Office of Hydrologic Development of the National Weather Service operates HADS, the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System. This data set contains the last 48...

  3. Comparison of empirical and data driven hydrometeorological hazard models on coastal cities of São Paulo, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koga-Vicente, A.; Friedel, M. J.

    2010-12-01

    Every year thousands of people are affected by floods and landslide hazards caused by rainstorms. The problem is more serious in tropical developing countries because of the susceptibility as a result of the high amount of available energy to form storms, and the high vulnerability due to poor economic and social conditions. Predictive models of hazards are important tools to manage this kind of risk. In this study, a comparison of two different modeling approaches was made for predicting hydrometeorological hazards in 12 cities on the coast of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1994 to 2003. In the first approach, an empirical multiple linear regression (MLR) model was developed and used; the second approach used a type of unsupervised nonlinear artificial neural network called a self-organized map (SOM). By using twenty three independent variables of susceptibility (precipitation, soil type, slope, elevation, and regional atmospheric system scale) and vulnerability (distribution and total population, income and educational characteristics, poverty intensity, human development index), binary hazard responses were obtained. Model performance by cross-validation indicated that the respective MLR and SOM model accuracy was about 67% and 80%. Prediction accuracy can be improved by the addition of information, but the SOM approach is preferred because of sparse data and highly nonlinear relations among the independent variables.

  4. Integrated hydrometeorological predictions with the fully-coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system in western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gochis, D. J.; Yu, W.

    2013-12-01

    Prediction of heavy rainfall and associated streamflow responses remain as critical hydrometeorological challenges and require improved understanding of the linkages between atmospheric and land surface processes. Streamflow prediction skill is intrinsically liked to quantitative precipitation forecast skill, which emphasizes the need to produce mesoscale predictions of rainfall of high fidelity. However, in many cases land surface parameters can also exert significant control on the runoff response to heavy rainfall and on the formation or localization of heavy rainfall as well. A new generation of integrated atmospheric-hydrologic modeling systems is emerging from different groups around the world to meet the challenge of integrated water cycle predictions. In this talk the community WRF-Hydro modeling system will be presented. After a brief reviewing the architectural features of the WRF-Hydro system short-term forecasting and regional hydroclimate prediction applications of the model from western North America will be presented. In these applications, analyses will present results from observation-validated prediction experiments where atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic model components are run in both a fully coupled mode and separately without two-way interactions. Emphasis is placed on illustrating an assessment framework using an initial state perturbation methodology to quantify the role of land-atmosphere energy and moisture flux partitioning in controlling precipitation and runoff forecast skill. Issues related to experimental design of fully-coupled model prediction experiments will also be discussed as will issues related to computational performance.

  5. Coupled hydro-meteorological modelling on a HPC platform for high-resolution extreme weather impact study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dehua; Echendu, Shirley; Xuan, Yunqing; Webster, Mike; Cluckie, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Impact-focused studies of extreme weather require coupling of accurate simulations of weather and climate systems and impact-measuring hydrological models which themselves demand larger computer resources. In this paper, we present a preliminary analysis of a high-performance computing (HPC)-based hydrological modelling approach, which is aimed at utilizing and maximizing HPC power resources, to support the study on extreme weather impact due to climate change. Here, four case studies are presented through implementation on the HPC Wales platform of the UK mesoscale meteorological Unified Model (UM) with high-resolution simulation suite UKV, alongside a Linux-based hydrological model, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). The results of this study suggest that the coupled hydro-meteorological model was still able to capture the major flood peaks, compared with the conventional gauge- or radar-driving forecast, but with the added value of much extended forecast lead time. The high-resolution rainfall estimation produced by the UKV performs similarly to that of radar rainfall products in the first 2-3 days of tested flood events, but the uncertainties particularly increased as the forecast horizon goes beyond 3 days. This study takes a step forward to identify how the online mode approach can be used, where both numerical weather prediction and the hydrological model are executed, either simultaneously or on the same hardware infrastructures, so that more effective interaction and communication can be achieved and maintained between the models. But the concluding comments are that running the entire system on a reasonably powerful HPC platform does not yet allow for real-time simulations, even without the most complex and demanding data simulation part.

  6. The eLSM at nonzero density

    CERN Document Server

    Giacosa, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    The extended Linear Sigma Model (eLSM) is an effective model of QCD which includes in the mesonic sector (pseudo)scalar and (axial-)vector quarkonia mesons as well as one dilaton/glueball field and in the baryonic sector the nucleon doublet and its chiral partner in the mirror assignment. The chiral partner of the pion turns out to be the resonance $f_{0}(1370),$ which is then predominantly a quarkonium state. As a consequence, $f_{0}(500)$ is predominately not a quarkonium state but a four-quark object and is at first not part of the model. Yet, $f_{0}(500)$ is important in the baryonic sector and affects nuclear matter saturation, the high-density behavior, and nucleon-nucleon scattering. In these proceedings, we show how to enlarge the two-flavour version of the eLSM in order to include the four-quark field $f_{0}(500)$ in a chiral invariant manner. We then discuss homogeneous and inhomogeneous chiral restoration in a dense medium.

  7. Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hally

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The e-Science environment developed in the framework of the EU-funded DRIHM project was used to demonstrate its ability to provide relevant, meaningful hydrometeorological forecasts. This was illustrated for the tragic case of 4 November 2011, when Genoa, Italy, was flooded as the result of heavy, convective precipitation that inundated the Bisagno catchment. The Meteorological Model Bridge (MMB, an innovative software component developed within the DRIHM project for the interoperability of meteorological and hydrological models, is a key component of the DRIHM e-Science environment. The MMB allowed three different rainfall-discharge models (DRiFt, RIBS and HBV to be driven by four mesoscale limited-area atmospheric models (WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH and AROME and a downscaling algorithm (RainFARM in a seamless fashion. In addition to this multi-model configuration, some of the models were run in probabilistic mode, thus giving a comprehensive account of modelling errors and a very large amount of likely hydrometeorological scenarios (> 1500. The multi-model approach proved to be necessary because, whilst various aspects of the event were successfully simulated by different models, none of the models reproduced all of these aspects correctly. It was shown that the resulting set of simulations helped identify key atmospheric processes responsible for the large rainfall accumulations over the Bisagno basin. The DRIHM e-Science environment facilitated an evaluation of the sensitivity to atmospheric and hydrological modelling errors. This showed that both had a significant impact on predicted discharges, the former being larger than the latter. Finally, the usefulness of the set of hydrometeorological simulations was assessed from a flash flood early-warning perspective.

  8. Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash-flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hally

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The e-Science environment developed in the framework of the EU-funded DRIHM project was used to demonstrate its capability to provide relevant, meaningful hydrometeorological forecasts. This was illustrated for the tragic case of 4 November 2011, when Genoa, Italy, was flooded as the result of heavy, convective precipitation that inundated the Bisagno catchment. The Meteorological Model Bridge (MMB, an innovative software component developped within the DRIHM project for the interoperability of meteorological and hydrological models, is a key component of the DRIHM e-Science environment. The MMB allowed three different rainfall-discharge models (DRiFt, RIBS, and HBV to be driven by four mesoscale limited-area atmospheric models (WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, Meso-NH, and AROME and a downscaling algorithm (RainFARM in a seamless fashion. In addition to this multi-model configuration, some of the models were run in probabilistic mode, thus allowing a comprehensive account of modelling errors and a very large amount of likely hydrometeorological scenarios (>1500. The multi-model approach proved to be necessary because, whilst various aspects of the event were successfully simulated by different models, none of the models reproduced all of these aspects correctly. It was shown that the resulting set of simulations helped identify key atmospheric processes responsible for the large rainfall accumulations over the Bisagno basin. The DRIHM e-Science environment facilitated an evaluation of the sensitivity to atmospheric and hydrological modelling errors. This showed that both had a significant impact on predicted discharges, the former being larger than the latter. Finally, the usefulness of the set of hydrometeorological simulations was assessed from a flash-flood early-warning perspective.

  9. The effect of background hydrometeorological conditions on the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to model parameters: analysis with measurements from an Italian alpine catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Montaldo

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent developments have made land-surface models (LSMs more complex through the inclusion of more processes and controlling variables, increasing numbers of parameters and uncertainty in their estimates. To overcome these uncertainties, prior to applying a distributed LSM over the whole Toce basin (Italian Alps, a field campaign was carried out at an experimental plot within the basin before exploring the skill and parameter importance (sensitivity using the TOPLATS model, an existing LSM. In the summer and autumn of 1999, which included both wet (atmosphere controlled and dry (soil controlled periods, actual evapotranspiration estimates were performed using Bowen ratio and, for a short period, eddy correlation methods. Measurements performed with the two methods are in good agreement. The calibrated LSM predicts actual evapotranspiration quite well over the whole observation period. A sensitivity analysis of the evapotranspiration to model parameters was performed through the global multivariate technique during both wet and dry periods of the campaign. This approach studies the influence of each parameter without conditioning on certain values of the other variables. Hence, all parameters are varied simultaneously using, for instance, a uniform sampling strategy through a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The evapotranspiration is highly sensitive to the soil parameters, especially during wet periods. However, the evapotranspiration is also sensitive to some vegetation parameters and, during dry periods, wilting point is the most critical for evapotranspiration predictions. This result confirms the importance of correct representation of vegetation properties which, in water-limited conditions, control evapotranspiration. Keywords: evapotranspiration, sensitivity analysis, land surface model, eddy correlation, Alpine basin

  10. Multi-scale hydrometeorological observation and modelling for flash-flood understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Braud

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a coupled observation and modelling strategy aiming at improving the understanding of processes triggering flash floods. This strategy is illustrated for the Mediterranean area using two French catchments (Gard and Ardèche larger than 2000 km2. The approach is based on the monitoring of nested spatial scales: (1 the hillslope scale, where processes influencing the runoff generation and its concentration can be tackled; (2 the small to medium catchment scale (1–100 km2 where the impact of the network structure and of the spatial variability of rainfall, landscape and initial soil moisture can be quantified; (3 the larger scale (100–1000 km2 where the river routing and flooding processes become important. These observations are part of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment Enhanced Observation Period (EOP and lasts four years (2012–2015. In terms of hydrological modelling the objective is to set up models at the regional scale, while addressing small and generally ungauged catchments, which is the scale of interest for flooding risk assessment. Top-down and bottom-up approaches are combined and the models are used as "hypothesis testing" tools by coupling model development with data analyses, in order to incrementally evaluate the validity of model hypotheses. The paper first presents the rationale behind the experimental set up and the instrumentation itself. Second, we discuss the associated modelling strategy. Results illustrate the potential of the approach in advancing our understanding of flash flood processes at various scales.

  11. Spectral Behavior of a Linearized Land-Atmosphere Model: Applications to Hydrometeorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentine, P.; Entekhabi, D.; Polcher, J.

    2008-12-01

    The present study develops an improved version of the linearized land-atmosphere model first introduced by Lettau (1951). This model is used to investigate the spectral response of land-surface variables to a daily forcing of incoming radiation at the land-surface. An analytical solution of the problem is found in the form of temporal Fourier series and gives the atmospheric boundary-layer and soil profiles of state variables (potential temperature, specific humidity, sensible and latent heat fluxes). Moreover the spectral dependency of surface variables is expressed as function of land-surface parameters (friction velocity, vegetation height, aerodynamic resistance, stomatal conductance). This original approach has several advantages: First, the model only requires little data to work and perform well: only time series of incoming radiation at the land-surface, mean specific humidity and temperature at any given height are required. These inputs being widely available over the globe, the model can easily be run and tested under various conditions. The model will also help analysing the diurnal shape and frequency dependency of surface variables and soil-ABL profiles. In particular, a strong emphasis is being placed on the explanation and prediction of Evaporative Fraction (EF) and Bowen Ratio diurnal shapes. EF is shown to remain a diurnal constant under restricting conditions: fair and dry weather, with strong solar radiation and no clouds. Moreover, the EF pseudo-constancy value is found and given as function of surface parameters, such as aerodynamic resistance and stomatal conductance. Then, application of the model for the conception of remote-sensing tools, according to the temporal resolution of the sensor, will also be discussed. Finally, possible extensions and improvement of the model will be discussed.

  12. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; El-Fadel, M.

    2017-02-01

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model's ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  13. Multi-scale hydrometeorological observation and modelling for flash flood understanding

    OpenAIRE

    Braud, I.; Ayral, P.-A.; Bouvier, C.; Branger, F.; Delrieu, G.; Coz, J.; Nord, G.; Vandervaere, J.-P.; Anquetin, S.; Adamovic, M.; Andrieu, J.; Batiot, C.; Boudevillain, B.; Brunet, P; Carreau, J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a coupled observation and modelling strategy aiming at improving the understanding of processes triggering flash floods. This strategy is illustrated for the Mediterranean area using two French catchments (Gard and Ardèche) larger than 2000 km2. The approach is based on the monitoring of nested spatial scales: (1) the hillslope scale, where processes influencing the runoff generation and its concentration can be tackled; (2) the small to medium cat...

  14. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    KAUST Repository

    El-Samra, R.

    2017-02-15

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model’s ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  15. Regional model simulation of the hydrometeorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Tomassetti

    Full Text Available The drainage of the Fucino Lake of central Italy was completed in 1873, and this possibly caused significant climatic changes over the Fucino basin. In this paper we discuss a set of short-term triple-nested regional model simulations of the meteorological effects of the Fucino Lake on the surrounding region. We find that the model simulates realistic lake-breeze circulations and their response to background winds. The simulations indicate that the lake affects the temperature of the surrounding basin in all seasons and precipitation in the cold season, when cyclonic perturbations move across the region. Some effects of the lake also extend over areas quite far from the Fucino basin. Our results support the hypothesis that the drainage of the lake might have significantly affected the climate of the lake basin. However, longer simulations and further development in some aspects of the model are needed, in order to provide a more statistically robust evaluation of the simulated lake-effects.

    Key words. Hydrology (anthropogenic effects – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; mesoscale meteorology

  16. Improved cyberinfrastructure for integrated hydrometeorological predictions within the fully-coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    gochis, David; hooper, Rick; parodi, Antonio; Jha, Shantenu; Yu, Wei; Zaslavsky, Ilya; Ganapati, Dinesh

    2014-05-01

    The community WRF-Hydro system is currently being used in a variety of flood prediction and regional hydroclimate impacts assessment applications around the world. Despite its increasingly wide use certain cyberinfrastructure bottlenecks exist in the setup, execution and post-processing of WRF-Hydro model runs. These bottlenecks result in wasted time, labor, data transfer bandwidth and computational resource use. Appropriate development and use of cyberinfrastructure to setup and manage WRF-Hydro modeling applications will streamline the entire workflow of hydrologic model predictions. This talk will present recent advances in the development and use of new open-source cyberinfrastructure tools for the WRF-Hydro architecture. These tools include new web-accessible pre-processing applications, supercomputer job management applications and automated verification and visualization applications. The tools will be described successively and then demonstrated in a set of flash flood use cases for recent destructive flood events in the U.S. and in Europe. Throughout, an emphasis on the implementation and use of community data standards for data exchange is made.

  17. Evaluation of regional-scale water level simulations using various river routing schemes within a hydrometeorological modelling framework for the preparation of the SWOT mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häfliger, V.; Martin, E.; Boone, A. A.; Habets, F.; David, C. H.; Garambois, P. A.; Roux, H.; Ricci, S. M.; Thévenin, A.; Berthon, L.; Biancamaria, S.

    2014-12-01

    The ability of a regional hydrometeorological model to simulate water depth is assessed in order to prepare for the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) mission that will observe free surface water elevations for rivers having a width larger than 50/100 m. The Garonne river (56 000 km2, in south-western France) has been selected owing to the availability of operational gauges, and the fact that different modeling platforms, the hydrometeorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU and several fine scale hydraulic models, have been extensively evaluated over two reaches of the river. Several routing schemes, ranging from the simple Muskingum method to time-variable parameter kinematic and diffusive waves schemes with time varying parameters, are tested using predetermined hydraulic parameters. The results show that the variable flow velocity scheme is advantageous for discharge computations when compared to the original Muskingum routing method. Additionally, comparisons between water level computations and in situ observations led to root mean square errors of 50-60 cm for the improved Muskingum method and 40-50 cm for the kinematic-diffusive wave method, in the downstream Garonne river. The error is larger than the anticipated SWOT resolution, showing the potential of the mission to improve knowledge of the continental water cycle. Discharge computations are also shown to be comparable to those obtained with high-resolution hydraulic models over two reaches. However, due to the high variability of river parameters (e.g. slope and river width), a robust averaging method is needed to compare the hydraulic model outputs and the regional model. Sensitivity tests are finally performed in order to have a better understanding of the mechanisms which control the key hydrological processes. The results give valuable information about the linearity, Gaussianity and symetry of the model, in order to prepare the assimilation of river heights in the model.

  18. LSM-YSZ Reactions in Different Atmospheres

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Ming; Liu, Yi-Lin; Hagen, Anke

    2009-01-01

    results in a decomposition of the formed La- and Sr-zirconates. The de-stabilisation of the LSM-YSZ interface under long-term annealing at 1,000 °C originates mainly from the inter-diffusion across the interface. Under reduced P(O2), the Mn diffusion from LSM into YSZ is enhanced. High P(O2) (0.21 atm...

  19. Quantitative precipitation and streamflow forecast for two recent extreme hydro-meteorological events in Southern Italy with a fully-coupled model system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendicino, Giuseppe; Senatore, Alfonso

    2016-04-01

    Two severe hydro-meteorological events affected Calabria Region (Southern Italy) in the second half of the year 2015. The first event, on August 12th, focused on a relatively small area near the northern Ionian coast, resulted in a rainfall intensity of about 230 mm in 24 hours involving flash flooding with several million Euros of damages. The second event mainly affected the southern Ionian coast, was more persistent (it lasted from October 30th to November 2nd), interested a wider area and led to recorded rainfall values up to 400 mm in 24 hours and 700 mm in 48 hours, resulting in severe flooding, landslides and a human loss. The fully two-way dynamically coupled atmosphere-hydrology modeling system WRF-Hydro is used to reproduce both the events, in order to assess its skill in forecasting both quantitative precipitation and streamflow with initial and lateral atmospheric boundary conditions given by the recently available 0.25° output resolution GFS grid dataset. Precipitation estimates provided by 2 km-resolution atmospheric model are compared with both ground-based data and observations from a National Civil Protection Department single-polarization Doppler radar. Discharge data from the rivers and creeks affected by heavy precipitation are not available, then streamflow results are compared with either official discharge estimates provided by authorities (first event) or recorded river stages (second event). Results show good performances of the fully-coupled hydrometeorological prediction system which allows an improved representation of the coupled atmospheric and terrestrial processes and provides an integrated solution for the regional water cycle modeling, from atmospheric processes to river outlets.

  20. Combined use of local and global hydrometeorological data with regional and global hydrological models in the Magdalena - Cauca river basin, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Erasmo; Sanchez, Ines; Duque, Nicolas; Lopez, Patricia; Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Arboleda, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    The Magdalena Cauca Macrobasin (MCMB) in Colombia, with an area of about 257,000 km2, is the largest and most important water resources system in the country. With almost 80% of the Colombian population (46 million people) settled in the basin, it is the main source of water for demands including human consumption, agriculture, hydropower generation, industrial activities and ecosystems. Despite its importance, the basin has witnessed enormous changes in land-cover and extensive deforestation during the last three decades. To make things more complicated, the MCMB currently lacks a set of tools to support planning and decision making processes at scale of the whole watershed. Considering this, the MCMB has been selected as one of the six different regional case studies in the eartH2Observe research project, in which hydrological and meteorological reanalysis products are being validated for the period 1980-2012. The combined use of the hydrological and meteorological reanalysis data, with local hydrometeorological data (precipitation, temperature and streamflow) provided by the National Hydrometeorological Agency (IDEAM), has given us the opportunity to implement and test three hydrological models (VIC, WFLOW and a Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework) at the basin scale. Additionally, results from the global models in the eartH2Observe hydrological reanalysis have been used to evaluate their performance against the observed streamflow data. This paper discusses the comparison between streamflow observations and simulations from the global hydrological models forced with the WFDEI data, and regional models forced with a combination of observed and meteorological reanalysis data, in the whole domain of the MCMB. For the three regional models analysed results show good performances for some sub-basins and poor performances for others. This can be due to the smoothing of the precipitation fields, interpolated from point daily rainfall data, the effect of

  1. Development of Self-made LSM Software using in Neuroscience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doronin, Maxim; Makovkin, Sergey; Popov, Alexander

    2017-07-01

    One of the main and modern visualization method in neuroscience is two-photon microscopy. However, scientists need to upgrade their microscopy system so regular because they are interested to get more specific data. Self-developed microscopy system allows to modify the construction of microscope in not-complicated manner depending on specialized experimental models and scientific tasks. Earlier we reported about building of self-made laser scanning microscope (LSM) using in neuroscience both for in vivo and in vitro experiments. Here we will report how to create software AMAScan for LSM controlling in MATLAB. The work was performed with financial support of the government represented by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, the unique identifier of the project is RFMEFI58115X0016, the agreement on granting a subsidy №14.581.21.0016 dated 14.10.2015.

  2. Conformation of LSM/YSZ and LSM ceramic films obtained by the citrate and solid mixture techniques; Conformacao de filmes ceramicos de LSM e LSM/YSZ obtidos pelas tecnicas citratos e mistura de solidos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiba, R.; Vargas, R.A.; Andreoli, M.; Seo, E.S.M., E-mail: rchiba@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (CCTM/IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Centro de Ciencia e Tecnologia de Materiais. Lab. de SOFC - Insumos e Componentes

    2009-07-01

    In this work, the ceramic films of LSM/YSZ (strontium-doped lanthanum manganite/Yttria-stabilized zirconia) and LSM used as cathodes of the solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) are conformed by the wet powder spraying technique. The composite LSM/YSZ was obtained by the solid mixture technique and LSM by the citrate technique. For the formation of the LSM/YSZ and LSM ceramic films was necessary the preparation of dispersed ceramic suspensions for the deposition in YSZ substrate, used as electrolyte of the CaCOS. These powders were conformed using an aerograph for the deposition of the LSM/YSZ and LSM thin films of approximately 40 microns. The half-cells had been characterized by X-ray diffractometry (XRD), identifying the phases hexagonal (LSM) and cubica (YSZ). And electronic scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to evaluate the adherence and porosity of the ceramic films according to the characteristics of the cathode. (author)

  3. Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

  4. From the groundwater to the boundary layer: a fully-coupled hydrometeorologic modeling approach for a catchment of the Alpine foothils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fersch, Benjamin; Kunstmann, Harald; Gochis, David

    2016-04-01

    Through capillary rise, shallow groundwater tables can considerably affect the soil moisture contents within the root layer of the vadose zone and consequently govern the exchange of moisture and energy between the land-surface and the atmospheric boundary layer. In addition, they play an important role for channel flow and substantial quantities of recharge water are subject to lateral redistribution. A combination of these processes can lead to various non-linear dependencies, feedback and back coupling. As a physically based hydrometeorologic modeling system, WRF-Hydro enables the study of the interactions between the atmospheric boundary layer and the hydrological quantities above and within the soil. However, in its current version a linear storage (bucket) model is employed to simulate the groundwater with single direction from the recharge towards the channel. For an improved representation, we present an extension to the hydrological component of WRF-Hydro that features a 2-dimensional, finite-difference, single-layer, porous groundwater flow model, a Darcy-flux parametrization of vertical water flux from and to the unsaturated zone, and a head-gradient based groundwater coupling to the river channel network. The developed model system is applied for the diverse Alpine foothill catchment of the Ammer river (650 km²), in Southern Germany, characterized by complex terrain, ranging from 550 to more than 2200 m.a.s.l. We will present an overview on the model structure and the coupling approach. Moreover, first results of the stand-alone model calibration and the fully coupled application will be shown.

  5. Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hally, A.; Caumont, O.; Garrote, L.; Richard, E.; Weerts, A.H.; Delogu, F.; Fiori, E.; Rebora, N.; Parodi, A.; Mihalovic, A.; Ivkovic, M.; Dekic, L.; Verseveld, W.J.; Nuissier, O.; Ducrocq, V.P.; Agostino, d' D.; Galizia, A.; Danovaro, E.; Clematis, A.

    2015-01-01

    The e-Science environment developed in the framework of the EU-funded DRIHM project was used to demonstrate its ability to provide relevant, meaningful hydrometeorological forecasts. This was illustrated for the tragic case of 4 November 2011, when Genoa, Italy, was flooded as the result of heavy,

  6. Diagnosis of GLDAS LSM based aridity index and dryland identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghazanfari, Sadegh; Pande, Saket; Hashemy, Mehdy; Sonneveld, Ben

    2013-04-15

    The identification of dryland areas is crucial for guiding policy aimed at intervening in water-stressed areas and addressing the perennial livelihood or food insecurity of these areas. However, the prevailing aridity indices (such as UNEP aridity index) have methodological limitations that restrict their use in delineating drylands and may be insufficient for decision-making frameworks. In this study, we propose a new aridity index based on based on 3 decades of soil moisture time series by accounting for site-specific soil and vegetation that partitions precipitation into the competing demands of evaporation and runoff. Our proposed aridity index is the frequency at which the dominant soil moisture value at a location is not exceeded by the dominant soil moisture values in all of the other locations. To represent the dominant spatial template of the soil moisture conditions, we extract the first eigenfunction from the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis from 3 GLDAS land surface models (LSMs): VIC, MOSAIC and NOAH at 1 × 1 degree spatial resolution. The EOF analysis reveals that the first eigenfunction explains 33%, 43% and 47% of the VIC, NOAH and MOSAIC models, respectively. We compare each LSM aridity indices with the UNEP aridity index, which is created based on LSM data forcings. The VIC aridity index displays a pattern most closely resembling that of UNEP, although all of the LSM-based indices accurately isolate the dominant dryland areas. The UNEP classification identifies portions of south-central Africa, southeastern United States and eastern India as drier than predicted by all of the LSMs. The NOAH and MOSAIC LSMs categorize portions of southwestern Africa as drier than the other two classifications, while all of the LSMs classify portions of central India as wetter than the UNEP classification. We compare all aridity maps with the long-term average NDVI values. Results show that vegetation cover in areas that the UNEP index classifies as

  7. Evaluation of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecast system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ahrens

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Medium range hydrological forecasts in mesoscale catchments are only possible with the use of hydrological models driven by meteorological forecasts, which in particular contribute quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF. QPFs are accompanied by large uncertainties, especially for longer lead times, which are propagated within the hydrometeorological model system. To deal with this limitation of predictability, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS that downscales the global ECMWF ensemble to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m.

    Earlier studies have mostly addressed the potential benefits of hydrometeorological ensemble systems in short case studies. Here we present an analysis of hydrological ensemble hindcasts for two years (2005 and 2006. It is shown that the ensemble covers the uncertainty during different weather situations with appropriate spread. The ensemble also shows advantages over a corresponding deterministic forecast, even under consideration of an artificial spread.

  8. Evaluation of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecast system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Jaun

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Medium range hydrological forecasts in mesoscale catchments are only possible with the use of hydrological models driven by meteorological forecasts, which in particular contribute quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF. QPFs are accompanied by large uncertainties, especially for longer lead times, which are propagated within the hydrometeorological model system. To deal with this limitation of predictability, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS that downscales the global ECMWF ensemble to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m.

    Earlier studies have mostly addressed the potential benefits of hydrometeorological ensemble systems in short case studies. Here we present an analysis of hydrological ensemble hindcasts for two years (2005 and 2006. It is shown that the ensemble covers the uncertainty during different weather situations with an appropriate spread-skill relationship. The ensemble also shows advantages over a corresponding deterministic forecast, even under consideration of an artificial spread.

  9. The Lsm1-7-Pat1 complex promotes viral RNA translation and replication by differential mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jungfleisch, Jennifer; Chowdhury, Ashis; Alves-Rodrigues, Isabel; Tharun, Sundaresan; Díez, Juana

    2015-08-01

    The Lsm1-7-Pat1 complex binds to the 3' end of cellular mRNAs and promotes 3' end protection and 5'-3' decay. Interestingly, this complex also specifically binds to cis-acting regulatory sequences of viral positive-strand RNA genomes promoting their translation and subsequent recruitment from translation to replication. Yet, how the Lsm1-7-Pat1 complex regulates these two processes remains elusive. Here, we show that Lsm1-7-Pat1 complex acts differentially in these processes. By using a collection of well-characterized lsm1 mutant alleles and a system that allows the replication of Brome mosaic virus (BMV) in yeast we show that the Lsm1-7-Pat1 complex integrity is essential for both, translation and recruitment. However, the intrinsic RNA-binding ability of the complex is only required for translation. Consistent with an RNA-binding-independent function of the Lsm1-7-Pat1 complex on BMV RNA recruitment, we show that the BMV 1a protein, the sole viral protein required for recruitment, interacts with this complex in an RNA-independent manner. Together, these results support a model wherein Lsm1-7-Pat1 complex binds consecutively to BMV RNA regulatory sequences and the 1a protein to promote viral RNA translation and later recruitment out of the host translation machinery to the viral replication complexes.

  10. Land Surface Models Evaluation for Two Different Land-Cover Types: Cropland and Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daeun Kim

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Land Surface Model (LSM is an important tool used to understand the complicated hydro-meteorological flux interaction systems between the land surface and atmosphere in hydrological cycles. Over the past few decades, LSMs have further developed to more accurately estimate weather and climate hydrological processes. Common Land Model (CLM and Noah Land Surface Model (Noah LSM are used in this paper to estimate the hydro-meteorological fluxes for model applicability assessment at two different flux tower sites in Korea during the summer monsoon season. The estimated fluxes such as net radiation (RN, sensible heat flux (H, latent heat flux (LE, ground heat flux (G, and soil temperature (Ts were compared with the observed data from flux towers. The simulated RN from both models corresponded well with the in situ data. The root-mean-square error (RMSE values were 39 - 44 W m-2 for the CLM and 45 - 50 W m-2 for the Noah LSM while the H and LE showed relatively larger discrepancies with each observation. The estimated Ts from the CLM corresponded comparatively well with the observed soil temperature. The CLM estimations generally showed better statistical results than those from the Noah LSM, even though the estimated hydro-meteorological fluxes from both models corresponded reasonably with the observations. A sensitivity test indicated that differences according to different locations between the estimations from models and observations were caused by field conditions including the land-cover type and soil texture. In addition the estimated RN, H, LE, and G were more sensitive than the estimated Ts in both models.

  11. Polarization Induced Changes in LSM Thin Film Electrode Composition Observed by In Operando Raman Spectroscopy and TOF-SIMS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McIntyre, Melissa D.; Walker, Robert; Traulsen, Marie Lund

    2015-01-01

    an applied potential.1-3 The presented work explores the polarisation induced changes in LSM electrode composition by utilizing in operando Raman spectroscopy and post mortem ToF-SIMS depth profiling on LSM thin film model electrodes fabricated by pulsed laser deposition on YSZ substrates with a thin (200 nm...... recorded through the LSM thin film electrodes and revealed distinct compositional changes throughout the electrodes (Figure 2). The electrode elements and impurities separated into distinct layers that were more pronounced for the stronger applied polarisations. The mechanism behind this separation...

  12. Real-time flood forecast and flood alert map over the Huaihe River Basin in China using a coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN; Charles; A.

    2008-01-01

    A coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system is established for real-time flood forecast and flood alert over the Huaihe River Basin in China. The system consists of the mesoscale atmospheric model MC2 (Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community) that is one-way coupled to the Chinese Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, a grid-based flow routing model, and a module for acquiring real-time gauge precipitation. The system had been successfully tested in a hindcast mode using 1998 and 2003 flood cases in the basin, and has been running daily in a real-time mode for the summers of 2005 and 2006 over the Wangjiaba sub-basin of the Huaihe River Basin. The MC2 precipitation combined with gauge values is used to drive the Xinanjiang model for hydrograph prediction and production of flood alert map. The performance of the system is illustrated through an examination of real-time flood forecasts for the severe flood case of July 4―15, 2005 over the sub-basin, which was the first and largest flood event encountered to date. The 96-h forecasts of MC2 precipitation are first evaluated using observations from 41 rain gauges over the sub-basin. The forecast hydrograph is then validated with observations at the Wangjiaba outlet of the sub-basin. MC2 precipitation generally compares well with gauge values. The flood peak was predicted well in both timing and intensity in the 96-hour forecast using the combined gauge-MC2 precipitation. The real-time flood alert map can spatially display the propagation of forecast floods over the sub-basin. Our forecast hydrograph was used as opera-tional guidance by the Bureau of Hydrograph, Ministry of Water Resources. Such guidance has been proven very useful for the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters in operational decision making for flood management. The encouraging results demonstrate the potential of using mesoscale atmospheric model precipitation for real-time flood forecast, which can result in a longer

  13. The TERENO-preAlpine Observatory: A Research Infrastructure for Hydrometeorological Observation and -Modeling across Compartments and Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunstmann, H.; Beck, C.; Brosy, C.; Chwala, C.; Emeis, S.; Fersch, B.; Garvelmann, J.; Gasche, R.; Jahn, C.; Junkermann, W.; Keis, F.; Kiese, R.; Krieg, R.; Mauder, M.; Ralf, M.; Neidl, F.; Philipp, A.; Schäfer, K.; Schmid, H. P. E.; Völksch, I.; Warscher, M.; Werhahn, J.; Wolf, B.; Senatore, A.; Rödiger, T.

    2015-12-01

    The improved understanding of the interlinked atmospheric and terrestrial hydrological processes requires concerted and compartment-crossing observation and -modeling efforts. Through the TERENO preAlpine Observatory, located in the southern Bavarian region of Germany, comprehensive technical infrastructure is being established to allow joint analyses of water-, energy- and nutrient fluxes. The observatory extends from the Ammergau mountains in the South till Lake Ammersee in the North. The observatory is designated as an international research platform, open for participation and integration. The technical infrastructure consists of a multitude of precipitation gauges at different altitudes, an X-band radar, and a set of commercial microwave radio links allowing to derive line integrated precipitation estimates, numerous snow monitoring stations, a SnowPack Analyzer, neutron based SnowFox devices, as well as a snow melt lysimeter and time-lapse photography. For the quantification of the combined water and energy fluxes, three eddy covariance systems including four-component net-radiometers and soil-heat flux instrumentation are operated. Soil moisture patterns and dynamics are measured with a wireless sensor network consisting of 55 in-situ soil moisture profiles, a cosmic ray probe probe and 36 precision weighing vegetated lysimeters at different locations and altitudes. Groundwater dynamics and hydrogeochemical composition of the two main local aquifers are monitored at five observation wells as well as streamflow at three weirs at various cross sections. Additionally, stable water isotopes are analyzed. The operational monitoring is complemented by intensive measurement campaigns, like the ScaleX campaign in June and July 2015 for which we present first results. Here, additional remote sensing measurements of atmospheric wind, humidity and temperature profiles are performed, which are complemented by micro-light aircraft- and UAV-based remote sensing for three

  14. Hydrometeorological Research in South Africa: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina M. Botai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions of the world are of great concern, as they are closely linked to the wellbeing of humankind. Sophisticated hydrological prediction tools are required to assess climatic and hydrometeorological conditions, as they impact the sustainability of water resources as well as water availability. Research and data collection activities from multi-hydrometeorological sensors (e.g., gauges, radars, satellites form the basis for quantifying the impact of extreme episodes along the hydrologic phases that manifest in terms of the magnitude, duration and frequency of floods, droughts and other hydrometeorological hazards that affect water resources management. A number of hydrometeorological research activities have been reported in the literature by various researchers and research groups globally. This contribution presents (a a review of the hydrometeorology resource landscape in South Africa; (b an analysis of the hydrometeorology services and products in South Africa; (c a review of the hydrometeorological research that has been conducted in South Africa for the last four decades; and (d highlights on some of the challenges facing the sustained advancement of research in hydrometeorology in South Africa.

  15. Impregnation of LSM Based Cathodes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højberg, Jonathan; Søgaard, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Composites cathodes consisting of strontium doped lanthanum manganite (LSM) and yttria stabilized zirconia have been impregnated with the nitrates corresponding to the nominal compositions: La0.75Sr0.25Mn1.05O3 +/-delta (LSM25), Ce0.8Sm0.2O2 (SDC) and a combination of both (dual). The latter perf...

  16. Benchmarking LSM root-zone soil mositure predictions using satellite-based vegetation indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    The application of modern land surface models (LSMs) to agricultural drought monitoring is based on the premise that anomalies in LSM root-zone soil moisture estimates can accurately anticipate the subsequent impact of drought on vegetation productivity and health. In addition, the water and energy ...

  17. An expert-based landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) module developed for Netcad Architect Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sezer, E. A.; Nefeslioglu, H. A.; Osna, T.

    2017-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to introduce an expert-based LSM module developed for Netcad Architect Software. A landslide-prone area located at the eastern Black Sea region of Turkey was selected as the experimental site for this study. The investigations were performed in four stages: (i) introducing technical details of LSM module and theoretical background of the methods implemented in the module, (ii) experiments; landslide susceptibility evaluations by applying the methods M-AHP and Mamdani type FIS by using the expert-based LSM module, (iii) map similarity assessments and evaluations for the generalization capacities of the expert-based models, and (iv) performance assessments of the LSM module. When considering the areal distributions of matching ratios obtained from the map similarity evaluations, it is revealed that M-AHP is more pessimistic and covers a greater area in higher hazard classes, whereas the Mamdani type FIS behaves more optimistically and restricts the area of higher hazard classes in the experimental site. According to the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analyses, the value of Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) was obtained as 0.66 for the resultant map produced with Mamdani type FIS and 0.82 for the map produced with M-AHP. To compare the time consumptions of the expert methods, experiments were implemented. Mamdani type FIS completes its task in 3 h and 39 min, whereas M-AHP only requires 47 s. As a consequence, (i) the LSM module developed for Netcad Architect Software presents full-featured expert-based landslide susceptibility mapping abilities, and (ii) M-AHP is a useful method for obtaining an expert opinion and modeling landslide susceptibility.

  18. Central Asian Snow Cover from Hydrometeorological Surveys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Central Asian Snow Cover from Hydrometeorological Surveys data are based on observations made by personnel for three river basins: Amu Darya, Sir Darya, and...

  19. DRIHM: Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, A.; Rebora, N.; Kranzlmueller, D.; Schiffers, M.; Clematis, A.; Tafferner, A.; Garrote, L. M.; Llasat Botija, M.; Caumont, O.; Richard, E.; Cros, P.; Dimitrijevic, V.; Jagers, B.; Harpham, Q.; Hooper, R. P.

    2012-12-01

    Hydro-Meteorology Research (HMR) is an area of critical scientific importance and of high societal relevance. It plays a key role in guiding predictions relevant to the safety and prosperity of humans and ecosystems from highly urbanized areas, to coastal zones, and to agricultural landscapes. Of special interest and urgency within HMR is the problem of understanding and predicting the impacts of severe hydro-meteorological events, such as flash-floods and landslides in complex orography areas, on humans and the environment, under the incoming climate change effects. At the heart of this challenge lies the ability to have easy access to hydrometeorological data and models, and facilitate the collaboration between meteorologists, hydrologists, and Earth science experts for accelerated scientific advances in this field. To face these problems the DRIHM (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology) project is developing a prototype e-Science environment to facilitate this collaboration and provide end-to-end HMR services (models, datasets and post-processing tools) at the European level, with the ability to expand to global scale (e.g. cooperation with Earth Cube related initiatives). The objectives of DRIHM are to lead the definition of a common long-term strategy, to foster the development of new HMR models and observational archives for the study of severe hydrometeorological events, to promote the execution and analysis of high-end simulations, and to support the dissemination of predictive models as decision analysis tools. DRIHM combines the European expertise in HMR, in Grid and High Performance Computing (HPC). Joint research activities will improve the efficient use of the European e-Infrastructures, notably Grid and HPC, for HMR modelling and observational databases, model evaluation tool sets and access to HMR model results. Networking activities will disseminate DRIHM results at the European and global levels in order to increase the cohesion

  20. Comparison of the Degradation of the Polarisation Resistance of Symmetrical LSM-YSZ cells, with Anode Supported Ni-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ SOFCs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torres da Silva, Iris Maura; Nielsen, Jimmi; Hjelm, Johan;

    2009-01-01

    Impedance spectra of a symmetrical cell with SOFC cathodes (LSM-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ) and an anode supported planar SOFC (Ni-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ) were collected at OCV at 650{degree sign}C in air (cathode) and humidified (4%) hydrogen (anode), over 155 hours. The impedance was affected by degradation over...

  1. Theoretical Design and Experimental Evaluation of Molten Carbonate Modified LSM Cathode for Low Temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-06

    EDUCATION & URTLAM REPORT 2012-2014 Theoretical Design and Experimental Evaluation of Molten Carbonate Modified LSM Cathode for Low Temperature...to participate in the funded projects. Students were trained in both modeling and experimental techniques. Their hard work led to several

  2. ICT-based hydrometeorology science and natural disaster societal impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, A.; Clematis, A.; Craig, G. C.; Kranzmueller, D.

    2009-09-01

    In the Lisbon strategy, the 2005 European Council identified knowledge and innovation as the engines of sustainable growth and stated that it is essential to build a fully inclusive information society. In parallel, the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Hyogo, 2005), defined among its thematic priorities the improvement of international cooperation in hydrometeorology research activities. This was recently confirmed at the joint press conference of the Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) with the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Secretariat, held on January 2009, where it was noted that flood and storm events are among the natural disasters that most impact human life. Hydrometeorological science has made strong progress over the last decade at the European and worldwide level: new modelling tools, post processing methodologies and observational data are available. Recent European efforts in developing a platform for e-science, like EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-sciencE), SEE-GRID-SCI (South East Europe GRID e-Infrastructure for regional e-Science), and the German C3-Grid, provide an ideal basis for the sharing of complex hydrometeorological data sets and tools. Despite these early initiatives, however, the awareness of the potential of the Grid technology as a catalyst for future hydrometeorological research is still low and both the adoption and the exploitation have astonishingly been slow, not only within individual EC member states, but also on a European scale. With this background in mind, the goal of the Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study (DRIHMS) project is the promotion of the Grid culture within the European hydrometeorological research community through the diffusion of a Grid platform for e-collaboration in this earth science sector: the idea is to further boost European research excellence and competitiveness in the fields of hydrometeorological research and Grid

  3. LSM-YSZ Cathodes with Reaction-Infiltrated Nanoparticles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Chun; Sholklapper, Tal Z.; Jacobson, Craig P.; Visco, StevenJ.; De Jonghe, Lutgard C.

    2006-01-31

    To improve the LSM-YSZ cathode performance of intermediate temperature solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), Sm0.6Sr0.4CoO3-sigma (SSC) perovskite nanoparticles are incorporated into the cathodes by a reaction-infiltration process. The SSC particles are {approx}20 to 80nm in diameter, and intimately adhere to the pore walls of the preformed LSM-YSZ cathodes. The SSC particles dramatically enhance single-cell performance with a 97 percent H2+3 percent H2O fuel, between 600 C and 800 C. Consideration of a simplified TPB (triple phase boundary) reaction geometry indicates that the enhancement may be attributed to the high electrocatalytic activity of SSC for electrochemical reduction of oxygen in a region that can be located a small distance away from the strict triple phase boundaries. The implication of this work for developing high-performance electrodes is also discussed.

  4. Study of the formation of secondary phases in the composite LSM/YSZ; Estudo da formacao de fases secundarias no composito LSM/YSZ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigues, Ranieri Andrade

    2007-07-01

    The composite of strontium-doped lanthanum manganite (La{sub 1-x}SrxMnO{sub 3} - LSM) and Yttria-stabilized zirconia (ZrO{sub 2}/Y{sub 2}O{sub 3} - YSZ), is indicated as cathode of the Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC). It presents better acting as cathode due to the Triple Phase Boundary (TPB) formed in the interface area between the cathode and the electrolyte. For the temperatures up to 1100 deg C, LSM and YSZ can react producing lanthanum zirconate (La{sub 2}Zr{sub 2}O{sub 7} - LZO) and strontium zirconate (SrZrO{sub 3} - SZO). In this sense, the present work intends to contribute in the study of the formation of phases LZO and SZO, studying different massic proportions between LSM and YSZ with sintering temperatures varying between 1000 deg C and 1400 deg C. For the obtention of the precursory powders the co-precipitation routes were adopted to obtain YSZ and conventional powder mixture for the preparation of LSM. The composite LSM/YSZ, studied in this work, is prepared with two concentrations of Sr for LSM (30 mol por cent - LSM7 and 40 mol por cent - LSM6) and one concentration of Yttria for YSZ (10 mol por cent). The results obtained by X-ray fluorescence showed that the routes adopted for synthesis of powders were effective in the obtention of the compositions LSM6, LSM7 and YSZ, with close values to the stoichiometric. The studied massic proportions were: 50 por cent of LSM and 50 por cent of YSZ (1:1), 25 por cent of LSM and 75 por cent of YSZ (1:3), and 75 por cent of LSM and 25 por cent of YSZ (3:1). Such proportions of mixtures were conformed and submitted at different conditions of temperatures and times of sintering: 1000 deg C, 1200 deg C, 1300 deg C, 1350 deg C and 1400 deg C for 4 and 8 hours. The values of medium size of the particles and the specific surface area values for the mixture of LSM6/YSZ and LSM7/YSZ, are of the same order of largeness after the mixture in a attrition mill and in different massic proportions. Secondary phases like LZO and

  5. ICT-infrastructures for hydrometeorology science and natural disaster societal impact assessment: the DRIHMS project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, A.; Craig, G. C.; Clematis, A.; Kranzlmueller, D.; Schiffers, M.; Morando, M.; Rebora, N.; Trasforini, E.; D'Agostino, D.; Keil, K.

    2010-09-01

    Hydrometeorological science has made strong progress over the last decade at the European and worldwide level: new modeling tools, post processing methodologies and observational data and corresponding ICT (Information and Communication Technology) technologies are available. Recent European efforts in developing a platform for e-Science, such as EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-sciencE), SEEGRID-SCI (South East Europe GRID e-Infrastructure for regional e-Science), and the German C3-Grid, have demonstrated their abilities to provide an ideal basis for the sharing of complex hydrometeorological data sets and tools. Despite these early initiatives, however, the awareness of the potential of the Grid technology as a catalyst for future hydrometeorological research is still low and both the adoption and the exploitation have astonishingly been slow, not only within individual EC member states, but also on a European scale. With this background in mind and the fact that European ICT-infrastructures are in the progress of transferring to a sustainable and permanent service utility as underlined by the European Grid Initiative (EGI) and the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe (PRACE), the Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study (DRIHMS, co-Founded by the EC under the 7th Framework Programme) project has been initiated. The goal of DRIHMS is the promotion of the Grids in particular and e-Infrastructures in general within the European hydrometeorological research (HMR) community through the diffusion of a Grid platform for e-collaboration in this earth science sector: the idea is to further boost European research excellence and competitiveness in the fields of hydrometeorological research and Grid research by bridging the gaps between these two scientific communities. Furthermore the project is intended to transfer the results to areas beyond the strict hydrometeorology science as a support for the assessment of the effects of extreme

  6. The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Giesen, N.C.; Hut, R.W.; Selker, J.

    2014-01-01

    In this opinion article, we present the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO). The goal of TAHMO is to develop a dense network of hydro-meteorological measurement stations throughout sub-Saharan Africa. On average, there will be one station per 1000 km2. The stations will be cost-ef

  7. The training on propagation of guided electromagnetic waves from the point of view of LSM LSE modes; La ensenanza de las ondas electromagneticas guiadas desde el punto de vista de los modos LSM y LSE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez, J.

    1997-09-01

    In this work, LSM and LSE modes are proposed as a didactic alternative for modeling the propagation of guided electromagnetic waves. Our considerations can be applied to the most common electromagnetic waves guiding systems: empty metallic waveguides, metallic waveguides partially filled with dielectrics, dielectric sheet waveguides and 3-D dielectric waveguides. In all cases, our interest is focussed on modes with a defined polarization; therefore the teaching activity can be treated from the scalar wave approximation point of view. (Author)

  8. Fusing enhanced radar precipitation, in-situ hydrometeorological measurements and airborne LIDAR snowpack estimates in a hyper-resolution hydrologic model to improve seasonal water supply forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gochis, D. J.; Busto, J.; Howard, K.; Mickey, J.; Deems, J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Richardson, M.; Dugger, A. L.; Karsten, L. R.; Tang, L.

    2015-12-01

    Scarcity of spatially- and temporally-continuous observations of precipitation and snowpack conditions in remote mountain watersheds results in fundamental limitations in water supply forecasting. These limitationsin observational capabilities can result in strong biases in total snowmelt-driven runoff amount, the elevational distribution of runoff, river basin tributary contributions to total basin runoff and, equally important for water management, the timing of runoff. The Upper Rio Grande River basin in Colorado and New Mexico is one basin where observational deficiencies are hypothesized to have significant adverse impacts on estimates of snowpack melt-out rates and on water supply forecasts. We present findings from a coordinated observational-modeling study within Upper Rio Grande River basin whose aim was to quanitfy the impact enhanced precipitation, meteorological and snowpack measurements on the simulation and prediction of snowmelt driven streamflow. The Rio Grande SNOwpack and streamFLOW (RIO-SNO-FLOW) Prediction Project conducted enhanced observing activities during the 2014-2015 water year. Measurements from a gap-filling, polarimetric radar (NOXP) and in-situ meteorological and snowpack measurement stations were assimilated into the WRF-Hydro modeling framework to provide continuous analyses of snowpack and streamflow conditions. Airborne lidar estimates of snowpack conditions from the NASA Airborne Snow Observatory during mid-April and mid-May were used as additional independent validations against the various model simulations and forecasts of snowpack conditions during the melt-out season. Uncalibrated WRF-Hydro model performance from simulations and forecasts driven by enhanced observational analyses were compared against results driven by currently operational data inputs. Precipitation estimates from the NOXP research radar validate significantly better against independent in situ observations of precipitation and snow-pack increases

  9. Application of the Artificial Neural Network model for prediction of monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index using hydrometeorological parameters and climate indices in eastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deo, Ravinesh C.; Şahin, Mehmet

    2015-07-01

    The forecasting of drought based on cumulative influence of rainfall, temperature and evaporation is greatly beneficial for mitigating adverse consequences on water-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, ecosystems, wildlife, tourism, recreation, crop health and hydrologic engineering. Predictive models of drought indices help in assessing water scarcity situations, drought identification and severity characterization. In this paper, we tested the feasibility of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a data-driven model for predicting the monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for eight candidate stations in eastern Australia using predictive variable data from 1915 to 2005 (training) and simulated data for the period 2006-2012. The predictive variables were: monthly rainfall totals, mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration, which were supplemented by large-scale climate indices (Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and Indian Ocean Dipole) and the Sea Surface Temperatures (Nino 3.0, 3.4 and 4.0). A total of 30 ANN models were developed with 3-layer ANN networks. To determine the best combination of learning algorithms, hidden transfer and output functions of the optimum model, the Levenberg-Marquardt and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton backpropagation algorithms were utilized to train the network, tangent and logarithmic sigmoid equations used as the activation functions and the linear, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid equations used as the output function. The best ANN architecture had 18 input neurons, 43 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron, trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm using tangent sigmoid equation as the activation and output functions. An evaluation of the model performance based on statistical rules yielded time-averaged Coefficient of Determination, Root Mean Squared Error and the Mean Absolute

  10. Hydro-Meteorology Research and ICT at CIMA Foundation: DEWETRA and DRIHMS experiences. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parodi, A.; Boni, G.; Ferraris, L.; Rudari, R.; Siccardi, F.

    2010-12-01

    The mitigation of the effects of natural disasters can be achieved through the identification, analysis and understanding of the causes and of the underlying hydrological, meteorological, and chemical processes. This is why research at CIMA Foundation is particularly devoted to the observation of the environment using the most advanced remote sensing technologies currently available and to the reproduction of observed phenomena with numerical modeling approaches. To achieve its goals, research at CIMA Foundation is driven by Civil Protection applications and focuses on several topics, going from predictability of meteorological extremes to modelling and prediction of floods, through collection and observation of hydrometeorological variables, data fusion and data assimilation. In this framework, CIMA Foundation has designed, on behalf of the Italian Civil Protection Department, Dewetra which is a real-time integrated system for risk forecasting, monitoring and prevention. Dewetra HW and SW architecture is fully compliant with the requirement of a flexible Decision Support System, which through a multi-layer Graphical User Interface (GUI) can provide decision makers with high resolution and rapid refresh information of the expected and observed risk. This combination of research and operational expertises in hydrometeorology and intensive use of new technologies has brought CIMA Foundation closer to the ICT community. Under the motto of “Hydrometeorology and ICT: two worlds that should talk more together” the FP7 DRIHMS (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology Study) aims to optimize the application of ICT technologies (including computer intensive frameworks for data sharing and new approaches for achieving model interoperability) in the study and comprehension of hydrometeorological processes. The main ideas of DEWETRA and DRIHMS will be discussed in this talk.

  11. Analysis of surface and root-zone soil moisture dynamics with ERS scatterometer and the hydrometeorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU at Grand Morin watershed (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Paris Anguela

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variations of soil moisture strongly affect flooding, erosion, solute transport and vegetation productivity. Its characterization, offers an avenue to improve our understanding of complex land surface-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, soil moisture dynamics at soil surface (first centimeters and root-zone (up to 1.5 m depth are investigated at three spatial scales: local scale (field measurements, 8×8 km2 (hydrological model and 25×25 km2 scale (ERS scatterometer in a French watershed. This study points out the quality of surface and root-zone soil moisture data for SIM model and ERS scatterometer for a three year period. Surface soil moisture is highly variable because is more influenced by atmospheric conditions (rain, wind and solar radiation, and presents RMSE up to 0.08 m3 m−3. On the other hand, root-zone moisture presents lower variability with small RMSE (between 0.02 and 0.06 m3 m−3. These results will contribute to satellite and model verification of moisture, but also to better application of radar data for data assimilation in future.

  12. Analysis of surface and root-zone soil moisture dynamics with ERS scatterometer and the hydrometeorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU at Grand Morin watershed (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Paris Anguela

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variations of soil moisture strongly affect flooding, erosion, solute transport and vegetation productivity. Its characterization, offers an avenue to improve our understanding of complex land surface–atmosphere interactions. In this paper, soil moisture dynamics at soil surface (first centimeters and root-zone (up to 1.5 m depth are investigated at three spatial scales: local scale (field measurements, 8×8 km2 (hydrological model and 25×25 km2 scale (ERS scatterometer in a French watershed. This study points out the quality of surface and root-zone soil moisture data for SIM model and ERS scatterometer for a three year period. Surface soil moisture is highly variable because is more influenced by atmospheric conditions (rain, wind and solar radiation, and presents RMS errors up to 0.08 m3 m−3. On the other hand, root-zone moisture presents lower variability with small RMS errors (between 0.02 and 0.06 m3 m-3. These results will contribute to satellite and model verification of moisture, but also to better application of radar data for data assimilation in future.

  13. Functional characterization of duck LSm14A in IFN-β induction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Kexin; Li, Huilin; Chen, Huanchun; Foda, Mohamed Frahat; Luo, Rui; Jin, Hui

    2017-11-01

    Human LSm14A is a key component of processing body (P-body) assembly that mediates interferon-β (IFN-β) production by sensing viral RNA or DNA. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to report duck LSm14A (duLSm14A) cloning from duck embryo fibroblasts (DEFs). Full-length duLSm14A encoded 461 amino acids and was highly homologous with chicken and swan goose sequences. More interestingly, the duLSm14A mRNA was extensively expressed in all the studied tissues. In DEFs, duLSm14A was localized in the cytoplasm as P-body-like dots. Expression of duLSm14A induced IFN-β through the activation of interferon regulatory factor-1 and nuclear factor-κB in DEFs. Furthermore, knockdown of duLSm14A by small interfering RNA notably decreased poly(I:C)- or duck reovirus-induced IFN-β production. The present study results indicate that the duLSm14A is an essential sensor that mediates duck innate immunity against viral infections. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. SET UP OF THE NEW AUTOMATIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL NETWORK IN HUNGARY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. NAGy

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ and General Directorate of Water Management (OVF in Hungary run conventional precipitation measurement networks consisting of at least 1000 stations. OMSZ automated its synoptic and climatological network in 90’s and now more than 100 automatic stations give data every 1-10 minutes via GPRS channel. In 2007 the experts from both institutions determined the requirements of a common network. The predecessor in title of OVF is general Directorate for Water and Environment gave a project proposal in 2008 for establishment of a new hydrometeorological network based on common aims for meteorology and hydrology. The new hydrometeorological network was set up in 2012 financed by KEOP project. This network has got 141 weighing precipitation gauges, 118 temperature - humidity sensors and 25 soil moisture and soil temperature instruments. Near by Tisza-Lake two wind sensors have been installed. The network is operated by OMSZ and OVF together. OVF and its institutions maintain the stations itself and support the electricity. OMSZ operates data collection and transmission, maintaines and calibrates the sensors. Using precipitation data of enhanced network the radar precipitation field quality may be more precise, which are input of run-off model. Thereby the time allowance may be increased in flood-control events. Based on soil moisture and temperature water balance in soil may be modelled and forecast can be produced in different conditions. It is very important task in drought and inland water conditions. Considering OMSZ investment project in which new Doppler dual polarisation radar and 14 disdrometers will be installed, the precipitation estimation may be improved since 2015.

  15. The Effect of a CGO Barrier Layer on the Performance of LSM/YSZ SOFC Cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammer Hansen, Kent; Menon, Mohan; Knudsen, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    by spin coating. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) was used to evaluate the performance of the LSM/YSZ composite electrodes. It was shown that the CGO barrier layer affects both the performance of the LSM/YSZ composite electrodes and the series resistance of the cells. This indicates...

  16. Application of hydrometeorological coupled European flood forecasting operational real time system in Yellow River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-qi YAN

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the application of the European flood forecasting operational real time system (EFFORTS to the Yellow River. An automatic data pre-processing program was developed to provide real-time hydrometeorological data. Various GIS layers were collected and developed to meet the demands of the distributed hydrological model in the EFFORTS. The model parameters were calibrated and validated based on more than ten years of historical hydrometeorological data from the study area. The San-Hua Basin (from the Sanmenxia Reservoir to the Huayuankou Hydrological Station, the most geographically important area of the Yellow River, was chosen as the study area. The analysis indicates that the EFFORTS enhances the work efficiency, extends the flood forecasting lead time, and attains an acceptable level of forecasting accuracy in the San-Hua Basin, with a mean deterministic coefficient at Huayuankou Station, the basin outlet, of 0.90 in calibration and 0.96 in validation. The analysis also shows that the simulation accuracy is better for the southern part than for the northern part of the San-Hua Basin. This implies that, along with the characteristics of the basin and the mechanisms of runoff generation of the hydrological model, the hydrometeorological data play an important role in simulation of hydrological behavior.

  17. Cytoplasmic LSM-1 protein regulates stress responses through the insulin/IGF-1 signaling pathway in Caenorhabditis elegans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornes, Eric; Porta-De-La-Riva, Montserrat; Aristizábal-Corrales, David; Brokate-Llanos, Ana María; García-Rodríguez, Francisco Javier; Ertl, Iris; Díaz, Mònica; Fontrodona, Laura; Reis, Kadri; Johnsen, Robert; Baillie, David; Muñoz, Manuel J; Sarov, Mihail; Dupuy, Denis; Cerón, Julián

    2015-09-01

    Genes coding for members of the Sm-like (LSm) protein family are conserved through evolution from prokaryotes to humans. These proteins have been described as forming homo- or heterocomplexes implicated in a broad range of RNA-related functions. To date, the nuclear LSm2-8 and the cytoplasmic LSm1-7 heteroheptamers are the best characterized complexes in eukaryotes. Through a comprehensive functional study of the LSm family members, we found that lsm-1 and lsm-3 are not essential for C. elegans viability, but their perturbation, by RNAi or mutations, produces defects in development, reproduction, and motility. We further investigated the function of lsm-1, which encodes the distinctive protein of the cytoplasmic complex. RNA-seq analysis of lsm-1 mutants suggests that they have impaired Insulin/IGF-1 signaling (IIS), which is conserved in metazoans and involved in the response to various types of stress through the action of the FOXO transcription factor DAF-16. Further analysis using a DAF-16::GFP reporter indicated that heat stress-induced translocation of DAF-16 to the nuclei is dependent on lsm-1. Consistent with this, we observed that lsm-1 mutants display heightened sensitivity to thermal stress and starvation, while overexpression of lsm-1 has the opposite effect. We also observed that under stress, cytoplasmic LSm proteins aggregate into granules in an LSM-1-dependent manner. Moreover, we found that lsm-1 and lsm-3 are required for other processes regulated by the IIS pathway, such as aging and pathogen resistance.

  18. Chromium poisoning of LSM/YSZ and LSCF/CGO composite cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, Janet Jonna; Høgh, Jens Valdemar Thorvald; Barfod, Rasmus;

    2009-01-01

    An electrochemical study of SOFC cathode degradation, due to poisoning by chromium oxide vapours, was performed applying 3-electrode set-ups. The cathode materials comprised LSM/YSZ and LSCF/CGO composites, whereas the electrolyte material was 8YSZ. The degradation of the cathode performance...... from 300 to 2,970 h. Both LSM/YSZ and LSCF/CGO cathodes were sensitive to chromium poisoning; LSCF/CGO cathodes to a lesser extent than LSM/YSZ. Humid air aggravated the degradation of the cathode performance. Post-mortem electron microscopic investigations revealed several Cr-containing compounds...

  19. Characterization of impregnated GDC nano structures and their functionality in LSM based cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klemensø, Trine; Chatzichristodoulou, Christodoulos; Nielsen, Jimmi

    2012-01-01

    Porous composite cathodes of LSM–YSZ (lanthanum strontium manganite and yttria stabilized zirconia) were impregnated with GDC (gadolinia doped ceria) nano particles. The impregnation process was varied using none or different surfactants (Triton X-45, Triton X-100, P123), and the quantity...... on the LSM phase and the LSM grain boundaries. The observations suggest that the improved performance associated with GDC nano particles is related to the particles placed near the TPB (triple phase boundary) zone. The GDC extends the TPB by creating an ionic conducting network on top of the LSM particles...

  20. SOFC LSM:YSZ cathode degradation induced by moisture: An impedance spectroscopy study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmi; Mogensen, Mogens Bjerg

    2011-01-01

    The cause of the degradation effect of moisture during operation of LSM cathode based SOFCs has been investigated by means of a detailed impedance characterization on LSM:YSZ composite cathode based SOFCs. Further the role of YSZ as cathode composite material was studied by measurements on SOFCs...... with a LSM:CGO composite cathode on a CGO interdiffusion barrier layer. It was found that both types of cathodes showed similar electrochemical characteristics towards the presence of moisture during operation. Upon addition and removal of moisture in the fed air the impedance study showed a change...... in the high frequency cathode arc, which is associated with the charge transport/transfer at the LSM/YSZ interface. On prolonged operation with the presence of moisture an ongoing increase in the high frequency cathode arc resulted in a permanent loss of cathode/electrolyte contact and thus increase...

  1. Fully-coupled hydrometeorological prediction of catastrophic Mediterranean floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebora, N.; Gabellani, S.; Rudari, R.; Silvestro, F.; Parodi, A.; Gochis, D.

    2012-12-01

    On November 4th, 2011, the city of Genoa, Italy, located between the Tyrrhenian Sea and the Apennine mountains, was witness to a catastrophic flash flood. About 500 millimeters of rain -a third of the average annual rainfall- fell in approximately six hours. The waters that flooded the town center equated to an approximately 300 year flood event. Six people perished, commercial property was inundated, cars were swept away and many trees were uprooted. We analyze the performance of cloud-permitting (1 km) model simulations of the convective system responsible for this extreme event using the Advanced Research Weather and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF, version 3.3) with its associated hydrological modeling extension ('WRF-Hydro') focusing on the utility of model quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) for flash flood prediction. WRF model skill is assessed with respect to specification of cloud microphysics, convection and land surface physics parameterizations. The QPF results strongly suggest an event dominated by comparatively shallow warm rain processes where local maxima were the product of both synoptic scale dynamics and orographic enhancement over the Apennine mountain range. Land and sea surface temperature forcing was assess but found to be secondary in importance. Streamflow prediction skill from the fully coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system was compared against observations and against offline or 'uncoupled' hydrological model runs, driven by several quantitative precipitation estimate (QPEs) products. The results illustrate the significant sensitivity of the predicted (simulated) streamflow event to QPF (QPE) skill and emphasize the importance of taking into account many factors and sources of error in the hydrometeorological prediction chain. The end product of this study is a comprehensive evaluation and justification for optimal configurations of the WRF-Hydro modeling system for high-impact Mediterranean flood events for use in future forecasting

  2. Diagnosis of GLDAS LSM based aridity index and dryland identification for socioeconomic aspect of water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghazanfari, S.; Pande, S.; Hashemy, M.; Naseri M., M.

    2012-04-01

    Water resources scarcity plays an important role in socioeconomic aspect of livelihood pattern in dryland areas. Hydrological perspective of aridity is required for social and economic coping Strategies. Identification of dryland areas is crucial to guide policy aimed at intervening in water stressed areas and addressing its perennial livelihood or food insecurity. Yet, prevailing aridity indices are beset with methodological limitations that restrict their use in delineating drylands and, might be insuffient for decision making frameworks. Palmer's Drought Severity index (PDSI) reports relative soil moisture deviations from long term means, which does not allow cross comparisons, while UNEP's aridity index, the ratio of annual evaporative demand to rainfall supply, ignores site specific soil and vegetation characteristics that are needed for appropriate water balance assessment. We propose to refine UNEP's aridity index by accounting for site specific soil and vegetation to partition precipitation into competing demands of evaporation and runoff. We create three aridity indices at a 1 x 1 degree spatial resolution based on 3 decades of soil moisture time series from three GLDAS Land Surface Models (LSM's): VIC, MOSAIC and NOAH. We compare each LSM model aridity map with the UNEP aridity map which was created based on LSM data forcing. Our approach is to extract the first Eigen function from Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis that represents the dominant spatial template of soil moisture conditions of the three LSM's. Frequency of non-exceedence of this dominant soil moisture mode for a location by all other locations is used as our proposed aridity index. The EOF analysis reveals that the first Eigen function explains, respectively, 33%, 43% and 47% of the VIC, NOAH and MOSAIC models. The temporal coefficients associated with the first OF (Orthogonal Function) for all three LSMS clearly show seasonality with a discrete jump in trend around the year 1999

  3. Advances in RUC LSM snow component to address cold biases in snow-covered regions in RAP and HRRR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnova, T. G.; Benjamin, S.; Brown, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    RUC Land-Surface Model (LSM), a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) LSM option, is used as a land surface component in the operational Rapid Refresh (RAP) over North America domain and in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) over CONUS domain. It was also added to the land-surface model suite available in NASA Land Information System (LIS), and work has been started to implement it in the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) as part of the RAP/HRRR physics suite. The RUC LSM performance has been evaluated for almost two decades within the real-time operational weather prediction systems focused on storm-scale predictions for severe weather and safer aviation. And in the recent couple of years it has been more and more extensively utilized by the WRF community in different parts of the world, including Arctic regions, and for different applications. Valuable feedback from the National Weather Prediction forecast offices and the WRF community has motivated further advances towards better representation of processes in snow-covered regions. The new treatment has been implemented for grid cells partially covered with snow. It considers snow-covered and non-snow-covered portions of a grid cell independently, and independently determined surface fluxes are aggregated to feed back into the surface-layer scheme at the end of each time step. This new "mosaic" approach removes the constraint of keeping skin temperature of partially covered with snow grid cells at or below the freezing point, and helps to reduce cold biases in these regions. Comparison results from experiments with the new and old approaches will be presented at the meeting. Also, techniques impemented in RAP/HRRR for optimal initialization of snow cover on the ground will be presented.

  4. PERENCANAAN PARTISIPASI LOKAL: PENGALAMAN ADVOKASI PARTICIPATORY BUDGETING LSM DI YOGYAKARTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poerwanti Hadi Pratiwi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Pelaksanaan pembangunan dikatakan berhasil bila mampu menjawab kebutuhan dan permasalahan yang dihadapi anggota masyarakat. Dalam penelitian ini, penulis membahas tentang peran serta warga masyarakat dalam perencanaan dan penganggaran APBD di daerahnya masing-masing melalui advokasi yang dilakukan oleh NGO. Metode penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif, pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan observasi, wawancara dan dokumentasi. Fakta menunjukkan bahwa keberhasilan pembangunan dapat terwujud salah satunya dengan mengikutsertakan anggota masyarakat sejak awal proses kegiatan, khususnya dalam penyusunan rencana pembangunan. Partisipasi dalam perencanaan pembangunan wujudnya bisa berupa kehadiran dalam rapat/musyawarah, pemikiran, dan waktu. Dalam rangka menyesuaikan dengan kepentingan masyarakat, maka penyusunan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Daerah (APBD tidak cukup dilakukan oleh lembaga-lembaga formal dari unsur eksekutif dan legislatif saja. Kelompok-kelompok masyarakat lokal dan Lembaga Swadaya Masyarakat (LSM/ NGO dapat turut berpartisipasi dalam penyusunan anggaran agar lebih dapat dipertanggungjawabkan, atau dengan kata lain lebih sesuai dengan kepentingan masyarakat.Implementation of the development is successful if it is able to answer the needs and problems faced by members of the community. In this study, the author specifically addresses the participation of citizens in local budget planning and budgeting in their respective regions through advocacy carried out by NGOs. Methods of research used in this research was a qualitative approach, data collection is done by observation, interview and documentation. The evidence suggests that successful development can be realized by involving members of the community since the beginning of the activity, particularly in the preparation of development plans. The form of participation in development planning can be a presence at a meeting / deliberation, thought and time. In order to adapt to

  5. A weather generator for hydro-meteorological hazard applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breinl, Korbinian; Turkington, Thea; Stowasser, Markus

    2014-05-01

    A new multi-site weather generator is proposed here. Multi-site weather generators are designed to simulate the space-time variation of precipitation and temperature at more than one location. A semi-parametric multi-site precipitation generator was recently proposed by Breinl et. al. (Breinl, K., Turkington, T. and Stowasser, M. 2013. Stochastic generation of multi-site daily precipitation for applications in risk management. Journal of Hydrology, 498: 23-35). A univariate Markov process was used to model precipitation occurrence at five sites in two study areas, with precipitation amounts simulated by resampling observations and then sampling and reshuffling from a parametric precipitation distribution (Breinl et. al., 2013). In this work, the precipitation model by Breinl et. al. (2013) is implemented in a weather generator for daily precipitation and temperature. The daily precipitation generator is extended for a considerably larger network of 19 sites in the Salzach catchment (Austria) and further improved to reduce the duplication of historical observations in the simulation output. Temperature is modelled using an autoregressive-moving average model (ARMA), simulating mean daily temperature at three of the 19 sites. Extreme values have also been considered, as they are often important for hydro-meteorological hazard applications. In the proposed weather generator, power transformations reduce the bias of generated extreme temperatures. The parametric models for precipitation are comprised of Weibull distributions for low precipitation amounts and Generalised Pareto distributions to more accurately capture moderate and extreme precipitation. With its abilities to reproduce the spatial variability of precipitation as well as unobserved extremes, the proposed weather generator is particularly recommended for flood hazard and risk assessment.

  6. Dual RNA Processing Roles of Pat1b via Cytoplasmic Lsm1-7 and Nuclear Lsm2-8 Complexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline Vindry

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Pat1 RNA-binding proteins, enriched in processing bodies (P bodies, are key players in cytoplasmic 5′ to 3′ mRNA decay, activating decapping of mRNA in complex with the Lsm1-7 heptamer. Using co-immunoprecipitation and immunofluorescence approaches coupled with RNAi, we provide evidence for a nuclear complex of Pat1b with the Lsm2-8 heptamer, which binds to the spliceosomal U6 small nuclear RNA (snRNA. Furthermore, we establish the set of interactions connecting Pat1b/Lsm2-8/U6 snRNA/SART3 and additional U4/U6.U5 tri-small nuclear ribonucleoprotein particle (tri-snRNP components in Cajal bodies, the site of snRNP biogenesis. RNA sequencing following Pat1b depletion revealed the preferential upregulation of mRNAs normally found in P bodies and enriched in 3′ UTR AU-rich elements. Changes in >180 alternative splicing events were also observed, characterized by skipping of regulated exons with weak donor sites. Our data demonstrate the dual role of a decapping enhancer in pre-mRNA processing as well as in mRNA decay via distinct nuclear and cytoplasmic Lsm complexes.

  7. Hydrometeorological and Statistical Analyses of Heavy Rainfall in Midwestern USA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2012-01-01

    During the last two decades the mid-western states of the United States of America has been largely afflicted by heavy flood producing rainfall. Several of these storms seem to have similar hydrometeorological properties in terms of pattern, track, evolution, life cycle, clustering, etc. which rais...

  8. Remotely Sensed Nightlights to Map Societal Exposure to Hydrometeorological Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnes Jane Soto Gómez

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study used remotely sensed maps of nightlights to investigate the etiology of increasing disaster losses from hydrometeorological hazards in a data-scarce area. We explored trends in the probability of occurrence of hazardous events (extreme rainfall and exposure of the local population as components of risk. The temporal variation of the spatial distribution of exposure to hydrometeorological hazards was studied using nightlight satellite imagery as a proxy. Temporal (yearly and spatial (1 km resolution make them more useful than official census data. Additionally, satellite nightlights can track informal (unofficial human settlements. The study focused on the Samala River catchment in Guatemala. The analyses of disasters, using DesInventar Disaster Information Management System data, showed that fatalities caused by hydrometeorological events have increased. Such an increase in disaster losses can be explained by trends in both: (i catchment conditions that tend to lead to more frequent hydrometeorological extremes (more frequent occurrence of days with wet conditions; and (ii increasing human exposure to hazardous events (as observed by amount and intensity of nightlights in areas close to rivers. Our study shows the value of remote sensing data and provides a framework to explore the dynamics of disaster risk when ground data are spatially and temporally limited.

  9. Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

  10. Effect of composition on the polarization and ohmic resistances of LSM/YSZ composite cathodes in solid oxide fuel cell

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    B SHRI PRAKASH; S SENTHIL KUMAR; S T ARUNA

    2017-06-01

    La0.8Sr0.2MnO$_3$−$\\delta$ (LSM)/8 mol% yttria-stabilized ZrO$_2$ (YSZ) (LSM/YSZ) composite cathodes with varying composition are studied for both polarization and ohmic resistance by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. It was found that total resistance and polarization resistance are lowest for the composite with 60 wt% of LSM (LSM60/YSZ40). However, the ohmic resistance was highest for the same composition and amounted to 60% of the total resistance value. Compositional dependence of resistances has been explained based on the variations of the triple phase boundaries and width of the O$_2$−ion migration path with the composition of the electrode. Based on the observed area specific ohmic resistance values for the composite cathodes, it is proposed to verify the advantages of LSM/YSZ over LSM cathode in anode-supported solidoxide fuel cell with thin electrolyte.

  11. Quantification of Uncertainties in Projections of Hydro-meteorological Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meresa, Hadush; Romanowicz, Renata; Lawrence, Deborah

    2016-04-01

    The impact of climate change on hydrological extremes has been widely studied particularly after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report in 2007. The methodology applied to derive hydrological extremes under climate change adopted by most scientists consists of running a cascade of models, starting from assumed emission scenarios applied to a global circulation model (GCM) and ending at hydrological model simulations. Therefore, the projected hydro-meteorological extremes are highly uncertain due to uncertainties inherent in all the links of the modelling chain. In addition, due to the complexity of hydrologic models that use a large number of parameters to characterize hydrologic processes, many challenges arise with respect to quantification of uncertainty. This issue needs to be properly quantified to understand possible confidence ranges in extremes in the future. This paper aims to quantify the uncertainty in the hydrological projection of future extremes in streamflow and precipitation indices in mountainous and lowland catchments in Poland, using a multi-model approach based on climate projections obtained from the ENSMEBLE and EUROCORDEX projects, multiple realizations of catchment scale downscaled rainfalls, two hydrological models (HBV and GR4J) and a number of hydrological model parameters. The time-span of projections covers the 21st century. The potential sources of hydrological projection uncertainties are quantified through a Monte Carlo based simulation approach. We compare the weights based on different goodness-of-fit criteria in their ability to constrain the uncertainty of the extremes. The results of the comparison show a considerable dependence of uncertainty ranges on the type of extremes (low or high flows) and on the criterion used. The predicted distribution of future streamflows considering all sources of uncertainty (climate model, bias correction and hydrological model) is used to derive marginal distributions of uncertainty related to

  12. Sm/Lsm genes provide a glimpse into the early evolution of the spliceosome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stella Veretnik

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The spliceosome, a sophisticated molecular machine involved in the removal of intervening sequences from the coding sections of eukaryotic genes, appeared and subsequently evolved rapidly during the early stages of eukaryotic evolution. The last eukaryotic common ancestor (LECA had both complex spliceosomal machinery and some spliceosomal introns, yet little is known about the early stages of evolution of the spliceosomal apparatus. The Sm/Lsm family of proteins has been suggested as one of the earliest components of the emerging spliceosome and hence provides a first in-depth glimpse into the evolving spliceosomal apparatus. An analysis of 335 Sm and Sm-like genes from 80 species across all three kingdoms of life reveals two significant observations. First, the eukaryotic Sm/Lsm family underwent two rapid waves of duplication with subsequent divergence resulting in 14 distinct genes. Each wave resulted in a more sophisticated spliceosome, reflecting a possible jump in the complexity of the evolving eukaryotic cell. Second, an unusually high degree of conservation in intron positions is observed within individual orthologous Sm/Lsm genes and between some of the Sm/Lsm paralogs. This suggests that functional spliceosomal introns existed before the emergence of the complete Sm/Lsm family of proteins; hence, spliceosomal machinery with considerably fewer components than today's spliceosome was already functional.

  13. A hydrometeorological approach for probabilistic simulation of monthly soil moisture under bare and crop land conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sarit Kumar; Maity, Rajib

    2015-04-01

    This study focuses on the probabilistic estimation of monthly soil moisture variation by considering (a) the influence of hydrometeorological forcing to model the temporal variation and (b) the information of Hydrological Soil Groups (HSGs) and Agro-Climatic Zones (ACZs) to capture the spatial variation. The innovative contributions of this study are: (i) development of a Combined Hydro-Meteorological (CHM) index to extract the information of different influencing hydrometeorological variables, (ii) consideration of soil-hydrologic characteristics (through HSGs) and climate regime-based zoning for agriculture (through ACZs), and (iii) quantification of uncertainty range of the estimated soil moisture. Usage of Supervised Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) in the development of the CHM index helps to eliminate the "curse of dimensionality," typically arises in the multivariate analysis. The usage of SPCA also ensures the maximum possible association between the developed CHM index and soil moisture variation. The association between these variables is modeled through their joint distribution which is obtained by using the theory of copula. The proposed approach is also spatially transferable, since the information on HSGs and ACZs is considered. The "leave-one-out" cross-validation (LOO-CV) approach is adopted for stations belong to a particular HSG to examine the spatial transferability. The simulated soil moisture values are also compared with a few existing soil moisture data sets, derived from different Land Surface Models (LSMs) or retrieved from different satellite-based missions. The potential of the proposed approach is found to be promising and even applicable to crop land also, though with a lesser degree of efficiency as compared to bare land conditions.

  14. Developing of operational hydro-meteorological simulating and displaying system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Shih, D.; Chen, C.

    2010-12-01

    Hydrological hazards, which often occur in conjunction with extreme precipitation events, are the most frequent type of natural disaster in Taiwan. Hence, the researchers at the Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (TTFRI) are devoted to analyzing and gaining a better understanding of the causes and effects of natural disasters, and in particular, typhoons and floods. The long-term goal of the TTFRI is to develop a unified weather-hydrological-oceanic model suitable for simulations with local parameterizations in Taiwan. The development of a fully coupled weather-hydrology interaction model is not yet completed but some operational hydro-meteorological simulations are presented as a step in the direction of completing a full model. The predicted rainfall data from Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) are used as our meteorological forcing on watershed modeling. The hydrology and hydraulic modeling are conducted by WASH123D numerical model. And the WRF/WASH123D coupled system is applied to simulate floods during the typhoon landfall periods. The daily operational runs start at 04UTC, 10UTC, 16UTC and 22UTC, about 4 hours after data downloaded from NCEP GFS. This system will execute 72-hr weather forecasts. The simulation of WASH123D will sequentially trigger after receiving WRF rainfall data. This study presents the preliminary framework of establishing this system, and our goal is to build this earlier warning system to alert the public form dangerous. The simulation results are further display by a 3D GIS web service system. This system is established following the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standardization process for GIS web service, such as Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS). The traditional 2D GIS data, such as high resolution aerial photomaps and satellite images are integrated into 3D landscape model. The simulated flooding and inundation area can be dynamically mapped on Wed 3D world. The final goal of this system is to real

  15. Hydro-meteorological analysis of slope failures occurred in 2014 in the Ialomita Subcarpathians, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitu, Zenaida; Bogaard, Thom; Busuioc, Aristita; Burcea, Sorin; Sandric, Ionut; Adler, Mary-Jeanne

    2016-04-01

    This paper address a regional scale analysis of the rainfall induced landslides for 2014 storm events based on detailed hydro-meteorological data set in the Ialomita Subcarpathians. This area is located in the western part of the Curvature Subcarpathians, a complex geological and geomorphic unit in Romania. The high temporal frequency of landslide events from the last decades (1997, 1998, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2012 and 2014) leads us to consider that these processes play a major role in the evolution of this area's landscape where the most frequent landforms are: slumps, earth flows, mudflows and complex movements. The rainy period between April-August 2014 induced numerous flash-floods and landslides in this specific area that resulted to severe economic losses estimated to €8 million in Dambovita County. Spatially distributed rainfall during the main storm events estimated from adjusted radar-based precipitation was used to analysis the hydro-meteorological conditions that triggered or not landslides in the Ialomita Subcarpathians. Hydrological preconditions were assessed by hourly in situ soil moisture measurements at local scale and hydrological modelling at regional scale. ModClark semi distributed model implemented in HEC HMS software that integrates radar data was used to analysis catchment response to the main rainfall event that triggered the landslides in 2014. Analysis between rainfall, soil moisture conditions and direct runoff was performed for identifying the contribution of the hydro-meteorologic conditions to landsliding process in the Ialomita Subcarpathians. A detailed landslide inventory based on field mapping and visual interpretation of satellite and aerial images was completed with information from local authorities and mass media. Despite the limited number of landslide events, this study allows a detailed insight of understanding the influence of rainfall in landslide occurrence in this specific area with the aim of improving landslide

  16. Synthesis of LSM films deposited by dip-coating on YSZ substrate; Sintese de filmes de LSM depositados por dip-coating em substratos de YSZ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conceicao, Leandro da; Souza, Mariana M.V.M., E-mail: mmattos@eq.ufrj.b [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (EQ/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Escola de Quimica; Ribeiro, Nielson F.P. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (PEQ/COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Quimica. Nucleo de Catalise

    2010-07-01

    The dip-coating process was used to deposit films of La{sub 0.7}Sr{sub 0.}3MnO{sub 3} (LSM) used as cathode in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). In this study we evaluated the relationship between the deposition parameters such as speed of withdrawal and number of deposited layers of LSM film on a substrate of 8% YSZ commercial, and structural properties, such as thickness and formation of cracks. The structure and morphology of the films were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). With parameters set the film had good adhesion to the substrate with a thickness around 10 {mu}m, showing possible adherence problems when more than one layer is deposited on the substrate. (author)

  17. Investigation of the degradation of LSM-YSZ SOFC cathode by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torres da Silva, Iris Maura

    conductivity would not be a problem during degradation experiments of the cells. The experiments carried out for this purpose include x-ray diffraction, conductivity and dilatometry. LSM-YSZ/YSZ/LSM-YSZ symmetrical cells were prepared and investigated by means ofelectrochemical impedance spectroscopy...... that at the applied operating conditions the impedance data could not be deconvoluted as anode and cathode processes were overlapping. Nonetheless it appeared that at OCV the degradation of the cathode is similar for symmetrical and single cells. Under current degradation was significantly lower, so real performance...

  18. Hydro-meteorological Inverse Problems via Sparse Regularization: Advanced frameworks for rainfall spaceborne estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebtehaj, Mohammad

    The past decades have witnessed a remarkable emergence of new spaceborne and ground-based sources of multiscale remotely sensed geophysical data. Apart from applications related to the study of short-term climatic shifts, availability of these sources of information has improved dramatically our real-time hydro-meteorological forecast skills. Obtaining improved estimates of hydro-meteorological states from a single or multiple low-resolution observations and assimilating them into the background knowledge of a prognostic model have been a subject of growing research in the past decades. In this thesis, with particular emphasis on precipitation data, statistical structure of rainfall images have been thoroughly studied in transform domains (i.e., Fourier and Wavelet). It is mainly found that despite different underlying physical structure of storm events, there are general statistical signatures that can be robustly characterized and exploited as a prior knowledge for solving hydro-meteorological inverse problems such rainfall downscaling, data fusion, retrieval and data assimilation. In particular, it is observed that in the wavelet domain or derivative space, rainfall images are sparse. In other words, a large number of the rainfall expansion coefficients are very close to zero and only a small number of them are significantly non-zero, a manifestation of the non-Gaussian probabilistic structure of rainfall data. To explain this signature, relevant family of probability models including Generalized Gaussian Density (GGD) and a specific class of conditionally linear Gaussian Scale Mixtures (GSM) are studied. Capitalizing on this important but overlooked property of precipitation, new methodologies are proposed to optimally integrate and improve resolution of spaceborne and ground-based precipitation data. In particular, a unified framework is proposed that ties together the problems of downscaling, data fusion and data assimilation via a regularized variational

  19. Quantifying Parameter Sensitivity, Interaction and Transferability in Hydrologically Enhanced Versions of Noah-LSM over Transition Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosero, Enrique; Yang, Zong-Liang; Wagener, Thorsten; Gulden, Lindsey E.; Yatheendradas, Soni; Niu, Guo-Yue

    2009-01-01

    We use sensitivity analysis to identify the parameters that are most responsible for shaping land surface model (LSM) simulations and to understand the complex interactions in three versions of the Noah LSM: the standard version (STD), a version enhanced with a simple groundwater module (GW), and version augmented by a dynamic phenology module (DV). We use warm season, high-frequency, near-surface states and turbulent fluxes collected over nine sites in the US Southern Great Plains. We quantify changes in the pattern of sensitive parameters, the amount and nature of the interaction between parameters, and the covariance structure of the distribution of behavioral parameter sets. Using Sobol s total and first-order sensitivity indexes, we show that very few parameters directly control the variance of the model output. Significant parameter interaction occurs so that not only the optimal parameter values differ between models, but the relationships between parameters change. GW decreases parameter interaction and appears to improve model realism, especially at wetter sites. DV increases parameter interaction and decreases identifiability, implying it is overparameterized and/or underconstrained. A case study at a wet site shows GW has two functional modes: one that mimics STD and a second in which GW improves model function by decoupling direct evaporation and baseflow. Unsupervised classification of the posterior distributions of behavioral parameter sets cannot group similar sites based solely on soil or vegetation type, helping to explain why transferability between sites and models is not straightforward. This evidence suggests a priori assignment of parameters should also consider climatic differences.

  20. Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO): A network to monitor weather, water, and climate in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van De Giesen, N.; Hut, R.; Andreini, M.; Selker, J. S.

    2013-12-01

    The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) has a goal to design, build, install and operate a dense network of hydro-meteorological monitoring stations in sub-Saharan Africa; one every 35 km. This corresponds to a total of 20,000 stations. By applying ICT and innovative sensors, each station should cost not more than $500. The stations would be placed at schools and integrated in the environmental curriculum. Data will be combined with models and satellite observations to obtain a very complete insight into the distribution of water and energy stocks and fluxes. Within this project, we have built a prototype of an acoustic disdrometer (rain gauge) that can be produced for much less than the cost of a commercial equivalent with the same specifications. The disdrometer was developed in The Netherlands and tested in Tanzania for a total project cost of Euro 5000. First tests have been run at junior high schools in Ghana to incorporate hydro-meteorological measurements in the science curriculum. The latest activity concerns the organization of a crowdsourcing competitions across Africa to address business development and the design and building of new robust sensors. This has resulted in a wide network throughout the continent to bring this program forward.

  1. Effect of sintering temperature on microstructure and performance of LSM-YSZ composite cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl Jørgensen, M.; Primdahl, S.; Bagger, C.;

    2001-01-01

    at the interface between the composite and the current collector. This interface is assumed to become more important with respect to oxygen reduction as the sintering temperature of the composite layer is increased, due to loss of porosity in this layer. An experiment with in-situ sintering of the composite......The correlation between sintering temperature, microstructure and performance of composite electrodes comprising lanthanum strontium manganate (LSM) and yttria stabilised zirconia (YSZ) with a current collector of LSM has been studied at 1000 degreesC in air. The microstructure was found to be less...... temperature. When keeping the sintering temperature of the composite structure constant at 1300 degreesC the performance was found to improve when lowering the sintering temperature of the current collector, This may suggest that a large part of the sites, which are active to oxygen reduction, are situated...

  2. Improved oxidation resistance of ferritic steels with LSM coating for high temperature electrochemical applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palcut, Marián; Mikkelsen, Lars; Neufeld, Kai

    2012-01-01

    The effect of single layer La0.85Sr0.15MnO3−δ (LSM) coatings on high temperature oxidation behaviour of four commercial chromia-forming steels, Crofer 22 APU, Crofer 22 H, E-Brite and AL 29-4C, is studied. The samples were oxidized for 140–1000 h at 1123 K in flowing simulated ambient air (air + 1......% H2O) and oxygen and corrosion kinetics monitored by mass increase of the materials over time. The oxide scale microstructure and chemical composition are investigated by scanning electron microscopy/energy-dispersive spectroscopy. The kinetic data obey a parabolic rate law. The results show...... that the LSM coating acts as an oxygen transport barrier that can significantly reduce the corrosion rate....

  3. Downscaling and hydrological uncertainties in 20th century hydrometeorological reconstructions over France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Caillouet, Laurie; Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Sauquet, Eric; Thirel, Guillaume; Graff, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    The record length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years, which is not enough to properly explore the natural hydrometeorological variability, a key to better understand the effects of anthropogenic climate change. This work proposes a comparison of different hydrometeorological reconstruction datasets over France built on the downscaling of the NOAA 20th century global extended reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al., 2011). It aims at assessing the uncertainties related to these reconstructions and improving our knowledge of the multi-decadal hydrometeorological variability over the 20th century. High-resolution daily meteorological reconstructions over the period 1871-2012 are obtained with two statistical downscaling methods based on the analogue approach: the deterministic ANALOG method (Dayon et al., 2015) and the probabilistic SCOPE method (Caillouet et al., 2016). These reconstructions are then used as forcings for the GR6J lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model and the SIM physically-based distributed hydrological model, in order to derive daily streamflow reconstructions over a set of around 70 reference near-natural catchments. Results show a large multi-decadal streamflow variability over the last 140 years, which is however relatively consistent over France. Empirical estimates of three types of uncertainty - structure of the downscaling method, small-scale internal variability, and hydrological model structure - show roughly equal contributions to the streamflow uncertainty at the annual time scale, with values as high as 20% of the interannual mean. Caillouet, L., Vidal, J.-P., Sauquet, E., and Graff, B.: Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, Clim. Past, 12, 635-662, doi:10.5194/cp-12-635-2016, 2016. Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Brönnimann, S

  4. Central Asia Water (CAWa) - A visualization platform for hydro-meteorological sensor data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stender, Vivien; Schroeder, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2014-05-01

    Water is an indispensable necessity of life for people in the whole world. In central Asia, water is the key factor for economic development, but is already a narrow resource in this region. In fact of climate change, the water problem handling will be a big challenge for the future. The regional research Network "Central Asia Water" (CAWa) aims at providing a scientific basis for transnational water resources management for the five Central Asia States Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. CAWa is part of the Central Asia Water Initiative (also known as the Berlin Process) which was launched by the Federal Foreign Office on 1 April 2008 at the "Water Unites" conference in Berlin. To produce future scenarios and strategies for sustainable water management, data on water reserves and the use of water in Central Asia must therefore be collected consistently across the region. Hydro-meteorological stations equipped with sophisticated sensors are installed in Central Asia and send their data via real-time satellite communication to the operation centre of the monitoring network and to the participating National Hydro-meteorological Services.[1] The challenge for CAWa is to integrate the whole aspects of data management, data workflows, data modeling and visualizations in a proper design of a monitoring infrastructure. The use of standardized interfaces to support data transfer and interoperability is essential in CAWa. An uniform treatment of sensor data can be realized by the OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) , which makes a number of standards and interface definitions available: Observation & Measurement (O&M) model for the description of observations and measurements, Sensor Model Language (SensorML) for the description of sensor systems, Sensor Observation Service (SOS) for obtaining sensor observations, Sensor Planning Service (SPS) for tasking sensors, Web Notification Service (WNS) for asynchronous dialogues and Sensor Alert Service

  5. Theoretical Design and Experimental Evaluation of Molten Carbonate Modified LSM Cathode for Low Temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-07

    molten carbonate; (2) Fabrication and test of SOFCs with MC modified LSM cathodes; (3) Low- temperature SOFCs using MC modified LSCF/GDC cathode; (4...have been deeply explored. (1) Interaction between oxygen and molten carbonate; (2) Fabrication and test of SOFCs with MC modified LSM cathodes; (3...c3cp52362d Diego Palacio, Yunhui Gong, Xueyan Song, Rajankumar L. Patel, Xinhua Liang, Xuan Zhao, John B. Goodenough , Kevin Huang. Stabilizing

  6. Hydro-Meteorological Drought Projections into the 21-st Century for Selected Polish Catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadush K. Meresa

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The nature of drought conditions is estimated using a range of indices describing different aspects of drought events. Three drought indices are evaluated, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI, using observed hydroclimatic data and applying them to hydro-meteorological projections into the 21st century. The first two indices are evaluated using only meteorological variables and from this point of view, are better suited to meteorological drought projections than the third index, SRI, which is based on catchment discharge and represents hydrological drought. We assess information contained in those indices and their suitability to catchment scale climate projection drought assessment in ten selected Polish catchments, representing different hydro-climatic conditions, which are used as a case study. Projections of climatic variables (precipitation and temperature are obtained from the EURO-CORDEX initiative derived from seven climate models at a grid resolution of 12.5 km for the time period 1971–2100. Future runoff projections for the catchments are obtained using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HBV. The results of analyses of indices based on observations in the reference period show consistent estimates for most of the catchments. Hydro-meteorological climate model projections for three periods, including the reference period 1971–2000, and two 30-year periods, near-future 2021–2050 and far-future 2071–2100, are used to estimate changes of future drought conditions in the catchments studied. The results show a substantial variation of temporal drought patterns over the catchments and their dependence on projected precipitation and temperature variables and the type of indices applied. Of the three indices studied, only SPEI projections indicate drier conditions in the catchments in the far-future period. The other two indices

  7. Variational Downscaling, Fusion and Assimilation of Hydrometeorological States via Regularized Estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Ebtehaj, Ardeshir Mohammad

    2012-01-01

    Improved estimation of hydrometeorological states from down-sampled observations and background model forecasts in a noisy environment, has been a subject of growing research in the past decades. Here, we introduce a unified framework that ties together the problems of downscaling, data fusion and data assimilation as ill-posed inverse problems. This framework seeks solutions beyond the classic least squares estimation paradigms by imposing proper regularization, which are constraints consistent with the degree of smoothness and probabilistic structure of the underlying state. We review relevant regularization methods in derivative space and extend classic formulations of the aforementioned problems with particular emphasis on hydrologic and atmospheric applications. Informed by the statistical characteristics of the state variable of interest, the central results of the paper suggest that proper regularization can lead to a more accurate and stable recovery of the true state and hence more skillful forecasts...

  8. Utilizing Satellite-derived Precipitation Products in Hydrometeorological Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Ostrenga, D.; Teng, W. L.; Kempler, S. J.; Huffman, G. J.

    2012-12-01

    Each year droughts and floods happen around the world and can cause severe property damages and human casualties. Accurate measurement and forecast are important for preparedness and mitigation efforts. Through multi-satellite blended techniques, significant progress has been made over the past decade in satellite-based precipitation product development, such as, products' spatial and temporal resolutions as well as timely availability. These new products are widely used in various research and applications. In particular, the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products archived and distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) provide 3-hourly, daily and monthly near-global (50° N - 50° S) precipitation datasets for research and applications. Two versions of TMPA products are available, research (3B42, 3B43, rain gauge adjusted) and near-real-time (3B42RT). At GES DISC, we have developed precipitation data services to support hydrometeorological applications in order to maximize the TRMM mission's societal benefits. In this presentation, we will present examples of utilizing TMPA precipitation products in hydrometeorological applications including: 1) monitoring global floods and droughts; 2) providing data services to support the USDA Crop Explorer; 3) support hurricane monitoring activities and research; and 4) retrospective analog year analyses to improve USDA's world agricultural supply and demand estimates. We will also present precipitation data services that can be used to support hydrometeorological applications including: 1) User friendly TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS; URL: http://disc2.nascom.nasa.gov/Giovanni/tovas/); 2) Mirador (http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov/), a simplified interface for searching, browsing, and ordering Earth science data at GES DISC; 3) Simple Subset Wizard (http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/SSW/ ) for data subsetting and format conversion; 4) Data

  9. An Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Prediction System for Alpine Catchments in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monhart, Samuel; Bogner, Konrad; Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark A.; Zappa, Massimiliano; Schär, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    In recent years meteorological ensemble prediction systems have increasingly be used to feed hydrological models in order to provide probabilistic streamflow forecasts. Such hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have been analyzed for different lead times from short-term to seasonal predictions and are used for different applications. Especially at longer lead times both such forecasts exhibit systematic biases which can be removed by applying bias correction techniques to both the meteorological and/or the hydrological output. However, it is still an open question if pre- or post-processing techniques or both should be applied. We will present first results of the analysis of pre- and post-processed extended-range hydrometeorological forecasts. In a first step the performance of bias corrected and downscaled (using quantile mapping) extended-range meteorological forecasts provided by the ECMWF is assessed for approximately 1000 ground observation sites across Europe. Generally, bias corrected meteorological forecasts show positive skill in terms of CRPSS up to three (two) weeks for weekly mean temperature (precipitation) compared to climatological forecasts. For the Alpine region the absolute skill is generally lower but the relative gain in skill resulting from the bias correction is larger. These pre-processed meteorological forecasts of one year of ECMWF extended-range forecasts and corresponding hindcasts are used to feed a hydrological model for a selected catchment in the Alpine area in Switzerland. Furthermore, different post-processing techniques are tested to correct the resulting streamflow forecasts. This will allow to determine the relative effect of pre- and post-processing of extended-range hydrometeorological predictions in Alpine catchments. Future work will include the combination of these corrected streamflow forecasts with electricity price forecasts to optimize the operations and revenues of hydropower systems in the Alps.

  10. Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Ward, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

  11. Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Huan [University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Tang, Qiuhong [Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Kirschbaum, Dalia B. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Ward, Philip [Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

    2016-01-01

    Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

  12. Hydro-meteorological extreme events in the 18th century in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fragoso, Marcelo; João Alcoforado, Maria; Taborda, João Paulo

    2013-04-01

    The present work is carried out in the frame of the KLIMHIST PROJECT ("Reconstruction and model simulations of past climate in Portugal using documentary and early instrumental sources, 17th-19th century)", and is devoted to the study of hydro-meteorological extreme events during the last 350 years, in order to understand how they have changed in time and compare them with current analogues. More specifically, the results selected to this presentation will focus on some hydro-meteorological extreme events of the 18th century, like severe droughts, heavy precipitation episodes and windstorms. One of the most noteworthy events was the winterstorm Bárbara (3rd to 6th December 1739), already studied in prior investigations (Taborda et al, 2004; Pfister et al, 2010), a devastating storm with strong impacts in Portugal caused by violent winds and heavy rainfall. Several other extreme events were detected by searching different documentary archives, including individual, administrative and ecclesiastic sources. Moreover, a more detailed insight to the 1783-1787 period will be made with regard the Lisbon region, taking into consideration the availability of information for daily meteorological observations as well as documentary evidences, like descriptions from Gazeta de Lisboa, the periodic with more continuous publication in the 18thcentury. Key-words: Instrumental data, Documentary data, Extreme events, Klimhist Project, Portugal References Pfister, C., Garnier, E., Alcoforado, M.J., Wheeler, D. Luterbacher, J. Nunes, M.F., Taborda, J.P. (2010) The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe, Climatic Change, 101, 1-2, 281-310 Taborda, JP; Alcoforado, MJ and Garcia, JC (2004) O Clima do Sul de Portugal no Séc.XVIII, Centro de Estudos Geográficos, Área de de Investigação de Geo-Ecologia, relatório no 2

  13. Pore former induced porosity in LSM/CGO cathodes for electrochemical cells for flue gas purification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgaard, M.; Andersen, Kjeld Bøhm; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2012-01-01

    In this study the effect of the characteristics of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) pore formers on the porosity, pore size distribution and the air flow through the prepared lanthanum strontium manganate/gadolinium-doped cerium oxide (LSM/CGO) cathodes was investigated. Porous cathodes were obtained...... and the highest porosity measured was 46.4% with an average pore diameter of 0.98 μm. The air flow through this cathode was measured to 5.8 ml/(min mm2). Also the effect of exposure time to the solvent was tested for the most promising PMMA pore former and it was found that the average pore diameter decreases...

  14. Effect of Aging on the Electrochemical Performance of LSM-YSZ Cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baqué, L. C.; Jørgensen, Peter Stanley; Zhang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Investigations of degradation mechanisms of solid oxide fuel cells are crucial for achieving a widespread commercialization of the technology. In this work, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) was applied for studying the aging effect on LSM-YSZ cathodes exposed to humidified air at 900°C...... resistance shows no clear tendency with aging time, while the ionic conductivity decreases up to ∼79%. Accordingly, the electrochemically active thickness contracts from 60–135 μm to 45–60 μm. The changes observed in the cathode transport and electrochemical properties are mostly explained by the evolution...

  15. Smed-SmB, a member of the LSm protein superfamily, is essential for chromatoid body organization and planarian stem cell proliferation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandéz-Taboada, Enrique; Moritz, Sören; Zeuschner, Dagmar; Stehling, Martin; Schöler, Hans R; Saló, Emili; Gentile, Luca

    2010-04-01

    Planarians are an ideal model system to study in vivo the dynamics of adult pluripotent stem cells. However, our knowledge of the factors necessary for regulating the 'stemness' of the neoblasts, the adult stem cells of planarians, is sparse. Here, we report on the characterization of the first planarian member of the LSm protein superfamily, Smed-SmB, which is expressed in stem cells and neurons in Schmidtea mediterranea. LSm proteins are highly conserved key players of the splicing machinery. Our study shows that Smed-SmB protein, which is localized in the nucleus and the chromatoid body of stem cells, is required to safeguard the proliferative ability of the neoblasts. The chromatoid body, a cytoplasmatic ribonucleoprotein complex, is an essential regulator of the RNA metabolism required for the maintenance of metazoan germ cells. However, planarian neoblasts and neurons also rely on its functions. Remarkably, Smed-SmB dsRNA-mediated knockdown results in a rapid loss of organization of the chromatoid body, an impairment of the ability to post-transcriptionally process the transcripts of Smed-CycB, and a severe proliferative failure of the neoblasts. This chain of events leads to a quick depletion of the neoblast pool, resulting in a lethal phenotype for both regenerating and intact animals. In summary, our results suggest that Smed-SmB is an essential component of the chromatoid body, crucial to ensure a proper RNA metabolism and essential for stem cell proliferation.

  16. Influence of hydrometeorological controls on debris flows near Chilliwack, British Columbia

    OpenAIRE

    Sutton, Elizabeth M

    2011-01-01

    This study aims to identify hydrometeorological variables near Chilliwack, BC which have initiated past debris flows in order to gain insight about conditions that could inform emergency planning and adaptation in future. A database of storms between 1980 and 2007 and their hydrometeorological characteristics including storm total rainfall and duration, intense rainfall total and duration, and 1 to 4 week cumulative antecedent rainfall were compiled. Stepwise logistic regression was used to ...

  17. Monitoring of the thermal neutron flux in the LSM underground laboratory

    CERN Document Server

    Rozov, S; Augier, C; Bergé, L; Benoit, A; Besida, O; Blümer, J; Broniatowski, A; Brudanin, V; Chantelauze, A; Chapellier, M; Chardin, G; Charlieux, F; Collin, S; Crauste, O; De Jesus, M; Defay, X; Di Stefano, P; Dolgorouki, Y; Domange, J; Dumoulin, L; Eitel, K; Filosofov, D; Gascon, J; Gerbier, G; Gros, M; Hannawald, M; Juillard, A; Kluck, H; Kozlov, V; Lemrani, R; Lubashevskiy, A; Marrach, C; Marnieros, S; Navick, X-F; Nones, C; Olivieri, E; Pari, P; Paul, B; Sanglard, V; Scorza, S; Semikh, S; Verdier, M-A; Vagneron, L; Yakushev, E

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes precise measurements of the thermal neutron flux in the LSM underground laboratory in proximity of the EDELWEISS-II dark matter search experiment together with short measurements at various other locations. Monitoring of the flux of thermal neutrons is accomplished using a mobile detection system with low background proportional counter filled with $^3$He. On average 75 neutrons per day are detected with a background level below 1 count per day (cpd). This provides a unique possibility of a day by day study of variations of the neutron field in a deep underground site. The measured average 4$\\pi$ neutron flux per cm$^{2}$ in the proximity of EDELWEISS-II is $\\Phi_{MB}=3.57\\pm0.05^{stat}\\pm0.27^{syst}\\times 10^{-6}$ neutrons/sec. We report the first experimental observation that the point-to-point thermal neutron flux at LSM varies by more than a factor two.

  18. LSM-YSZ cathode with infiltrated cobalt oxide and cerium oxide nanoparticles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohno, R.; Murata, K.; Hirano, A.; Takeda, Y.; Yamamoto, O. [Department of Chemistry, Mie University, Tsu (Japan); Yamahara, K. [Mitsubihsi Chemical Corporation, Shiba, Minato-ku, Tokyo (Japan); Imanishi, N.

    2009-06-15

    To improve the La{sub 0.8}Sr{sub 0.2}MnO{sub 3} (LSM) -8 mol-%Y{sub 2}O{sub 3}-ZrO{sub 2} (YSZ) cathode performance of intermediate temperature solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), Co{sub 3}O{sub 4} and CeO{sub 2} nanoparticles were infiltrated into the cathode. Co-infiltration of these oxide particles drastically enhanced the cell performance between 800 and 600 C. The infiltrated CeO{sub 2} suppressed the aggregation of nanoparticle Co{sub 3}O{sub 4}, resulting in the high catalytic activity of the nanoparticle Co{sub 3}O{sub 4} for oxygen reduction at intermediate temperatures. The anode-supported SOFC with Co{sub 3}O{sub 4} and CeO{sub 2} co-infiltrated LSM-YSZ cathode at 700 C showed the high specific power density of 0.58 W cm{sup -2} at 0.7 V. (Abstract Copyright [2009], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  19. Vodacom and MTN’s brand positioning based on the perceptions of a group of LSM seven to ten respondents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hennie Mentz

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates Vodacom and MTN’s brand positioning based on the perceptions of a group of LSM seven to ten respondents who are principal estate agents in Gauteng. An empirical study was conducted. The profile of the sample in terms of access to telecommunication-related services confirmed that of individuals in the LSM seven to ten groups with a skew towards LSM ten. As a minimum requirement for the target market brands in the category should be strongly associated with the statements market leader, local brand, technologically sophisticated brand, trusted brand, South African brand and prestigious/upmarket brand. At an overall level, Vodacom has established a more favourable brand positioning compared to MTN. However, both Vodacom and MTN have failed to establish a personal brand relationship with the target market.

  20. Using the Iterative Input variable Selection (IIS) algorithm to assess the relevance of ENSO teleconnections patterns on hydro-meteorological processes at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrame, Ludovica; Carbonin, Daniele; Galelli, Stefano; Castelletti, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Population growth, water scarcity and climate change are three major factors making the understanding of variations in water availability increasingly important. Therefore, reliable medium-to-long range forecasts of streamflows are essential to the development of water management policies. To this purpose, recent modelling efforts have been dedicated to seasonal and inter-annual streamflow forecasts based on the teleconnection between "at-site" hydro-meteorological processes and low frequency climate fluctuations, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This work proposes a novel procedure for first detecting the impact of ENSO on hydro-meteorological processes at the catchment scale, and then assessing the potential of ENSO indicators for building medium-to-long range statistical streamflow prediction models. Core of this procedure is the adoption of the Iterative Input variable Selection (IIS) algorithm that is employed to find the most relevant forcings of streamflow variability and derive predictive models based on the selected inputs. The procedure is tested on the Columbia (USA) and Williams (Australia) Rivers, where ENSO influence has been well-documented, and then adopted on the unexplored Red River basin (Vietnam). Results show that IIS outcomes on the Columbia and Williams Rivers are consistent with the results of previous studies, and that ENSO indicators can be effectively used to enhance the streamflow forecast models capabilities. The experiments on the Red River basin show that the ENSO influence is less pronounced, inducing little effects on the basin hydro-meteorological processes.

  1. A functional study of the conserved LSM proteins in C. elegans reveals their involvement in the stress response of metazoans

    OpenAIRE

    Cornes Maragliano, Eric, 1987-

    2015-01-01

    Las prote??nas de la familia Lsm est??n conservadas desde bacterias a humanos y participan en el metabolismo de ARN. Aunque el estudio de sus funciones ha sido generalmente abordado mediante aproximaciones bioqu??micas en modelos unicelulares, sus funciones en organismos multicelulares son desconocidas. Su estudio en organismos modelo es de especial relevancia biom??dica ya que la alteraci??n espec??fica de ciertas prote??nas Lsm ha sido relacionada con el desarrollo del c??ncer. Mediant...

  2. Comparing One-way and Two-way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Givati, Amir; Gochis, David; Rummler, Thomas; Kunstmann, Harald; Yu, Wei

    2016-04-01

    A pair of hydro-meteorological modeling systems were calibrated and evaluated for the Ayalon basin in central Israel to assess the advantages and limitations of one-way versus two-way coupled modeling systems for flood prediction. The models used included the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Hydro modeling system. The models were forced by observed, interpolated precipitation from rain-gauges within the basin, and with modeled precipitation from the WRF atmospheric model. Detailed calibration and evaluation was carried out for two major winter storms in January and December 2013. Then both modeling systems were executed and evaluated in an operational mode for the full 2014/2015 rainy season. Outputs from these simulations were compared to observed measurements from hydrometric stations at the Ayalon basin outlet. Various statistical metrics were employed to quantify and analyze the results: correlation, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient. Foremost, the results presented in this study highlight the sensitivity of hydrological responses to different sources of precipitation data, and less so, to hydrologic model formulation. With observed precipitation data both calibrated models closely simulated the observed hydrographs. The two-way coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro modeling system produced improved both the precipitation and hydrological simulations as compared to the one-way WRF simulations. Findings from this study suggest that the use of two-way atmospheric-hydrological coupling has the potential to improve precipitation and, therefore, hydrological forecasts for early flood warning applications. However more research needed in order to better understand the land-atmosphere coupling mechanisms driving hydrometeorological processes on a wider variety precipitation and terrestrial hydrologic systems.

  3. Performance of a solid oxide fuel cell with cathode containing a functional layer of LSM/YSZ film; Desempenho de uma celula a combustivel de oxido solido com catodo contendo uma camada funcional de filme LSM/YSZ

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pires, Filipe Oliveira; Domingues, Rosana Z.; Brant, Marcia C.; Silva, Charles L.; Matencio, Tulio [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Dept. de Quimica]. E-mail: filipequiufmg@ufmg.br

    2008-07-01

    Performance of a SOFC may be evaluated by using the AC-Impedance and measuring power (P V x I). The objective of this study was to compare the performance of a fuel cell with LSM as a cathode and another one containing an additional functional composite film LSM/YSZ between the LSM and YSZ. Also it was studied variation in second cell resistance and power according to the temperature, hydrogen flux and operation time. For both cells platinum was used as anode. At 800 deg C was observed, in open current circuit, when the composite layer was introduced a decrease in resistance and high power. These results show an improvement of SOFC cathode performance with the introduction of composite LSM/YSZ layer. The maximum performance of the cell was achieved with 100 mL/min hydrogen flow at 800 deg C. The experiments also showed a performance improvement at 850 deg C. The cell behavior was stable during 318 hours of test. (author)

  4. Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Givati

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A pair of hydro-meteorological modeling systems were calibrated and evaluated for the Ayalon basin in central Israel to assess the advantages and limitations of one-way versus two-way coupled modeling systems for flood prediction. The models used included the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF Hydro modeling system. The models were forced by observed, interpolated precipitation from rain-gauges within the basin, and with modeled precipitation from the WRF atmospheric model. Detailed calibration and evaluation was carried out for two major winter storms in January and December 2013. Then, both modeling systems were executed and evaluated in an operational mode for the full 2014/2015 rainy season. Outputs from these simulations were compared to observed measurements from the hydrometric station at the Ayalon basin outlet. Various statistical metrics were employed to quantify and analyze the results: correlation, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE and the Nash–Sutcliffe (NS efficiency coefficient. Foremost, the results presented in this study highlight the sensitivity of hydrological responses to different sources of simulated and observed precipitation data, and demonstrate improvement, although not significant, at the Hydrological response, like simulated hydrographs. With observed precipitation data both calibrated models closely simulated the observed hydrographs. The two-way coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro modeling system produced improved both the precipitation and hydrological simulations as compared to the one-way WRF simulations. Findings from this study, as well as previous studies, suggest that the use of two-way atmospheric-hydrological coupling has the potential to improve precipitation and, therefore, hydrological forecasts for early flood warning applications. However, more research needed in order to better understand the land-atmosphere coupling mechanisms

  5. An End-to-End System to Enable Quick, Easy and Inexpensive Deployment of Hydrometeorological Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celicourt, P.; Piasecki, M.

    2014-12-01

    The high cost of hydro-meteorological data acquisition, communication and publication systems along with limited qualified human resources is considered as the main reason why hydro-meteorological data collection remains a challenge especially in developing countries. Despite significant advances in sensor network technologies which gave birth to open hardware and software, low-cost (less than $50) and low-power (in the order of a few miliWatts) sensor platforms in the last two decades, sensors and sensor network deployment remains a labor-intensive, time consuming, cumbersome, and thus expensive task. These factors give rise for the need to develop a affordable, simple to deploy, scalable and self-organizing end-to-end (from sensor to publication) system suitable for deployment in such countries. The design of the envisioned system will consist of a few Sensed-And-Programmed Arduino-based sensor nodes with low-cost sensors measuring parameters relevant to hydrological processes and a Raspberry Pi micro-computer hosting the in-the-field back-end data management. This latter comprises the Python/Django model of the CUAHSI Observations Data Model (ODM) namely DjangODM backed by a PostgreSQL Database Server. We are also developing a Python-based data processing script which will be paired with the data autoloading capability of Django to populate the DjangODM database with the incoming data. To publish the data, the WOFpy (WaterOneFlow Web Services in Python) developed by the Texas Water Development Board for 'Water Data for Texas' which can produce WaterML web services from a variety of back-end database installations such as SQLite, MySQL, and PostgreSQL will be used. A step further would be the development of an appealing online visualization tool using Python statistics and analytics tools (Scipy, Numpy, Pandas) showing the spatial distribution of variables across an entire watershed as a time variant layer on top of a basemap.

  6. Investigation Of The Hydro-Meteorological Hazards Along The Bulgarian Coast Of The Black Sea By Reconstructions Of Historical Storms

    CERN Document Server

    Galabov, Vasko; Bogatchev, Andrey; Tsenova, Boryana

    2015-01-01

    Information about the hydro-meteorological parameters during the extreme sea storms is of significant importance for the sustainable development in the context of flood risk for the coastal areas. Usually there is a lack of sufficiently long history of instrumental measurements of the extreme winds, waves and storm surges. Simulation of historical storms is an important tool to evaluate the potential coastal hazards. In the absence of measured data hindcasts can satisfy the need for historical data. The wave and storm-surge regional numerical simulations have been carried out for the ten most severe storms over the Bulgarian coast of the Black Sea from the period 1972-2012. The ERA-Interim and ERA-40 reanalysis of wind at 10 m and mean sea level pressure have been downscaled with a high resolution atmospheric model ALADIN to the horizontal and time scales suitable for precise evaluation of hydro-meteorological parameters during the storms. The downscaled fields of wind and sea level pressure have been used as...

  7. Enhancing the applicability of Kohonen Self-Organizing Map (KSOM) estimator for gap-filling in hydrometeorological timeseries data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanda, Trushnamayee; Sahoo, Bhabagrahi; Chatterjee, Chandranath

    2017-06-01

    The Kohonen Self-Organizing Map (KSOM) estimator is prescribed as a useful tool for infilling the missing data in hydrometeorology. However, in this study, when the performance of the KSOM estimator is tested for gap-filling in the streamflow, rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET), and temperature timeseries data, collected from 30 gauging stations in India under missing data situations, it is felt that the KSOM modeling performance could be further improved. Consequently, this study tries to answer the research questions as to whether the length of record of the historical data and its variability has any effect on the performance of the KSOM? Whether inclusion of temporal distribution of timeseries data and the nature of outliers in the KSOM framework enhances its performance further? Subsequently, it is established that the KSOM framework should include the coefficient of variation of the datasets for determination of the number of map units, without considering it as a single value function of the sample data size. This could help to upscale and generalize the applicability of KSOM for varied hydrometeorological data types.

  8. Developments in plastic wire chambers operated in the limited streamer mode (LSM detectors)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laakso, Mikko; Kurvinen, Kari; Orava, Risto

    1988-12-01

    We have calculated the photon detection efficiency of a wire chamber constructed with conductive nylon-66 plastic as cathode material in the photon energy range of 100 keV-1 MeV. The calculated results are compared with the results obtained with a Monte Carlo simulation using the FLUKA [1] transport code and with experimental results. We have also calculated the efficiency for copper and compared these two cathode materials. The comparison shows that wire chambers with nylon and copper cathodes are equally efficient in detecting the 100 keV-1 MeV photons. Furthermore, we have studied the different physical processes contributing to photon detection as well as the detection efficiency as a function of cathode thickness. Finally, we report some results from the first LSM detector operational tests performed with our new wire chamber testing device.

  9. Microstructure degradation of LSM-YSZ cathode in SOFCs operated at various conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yi-Lin; Thydén, Karl Tor Sune; Chen, Ming

    2012-01-01

    mechanisms have been identified. And it has been observed that different mechanisms dominate the degradation process under different test conditions. The severe cathode degradation at 750 °C operation with high current density is attributed to a loss of the cathode/electrolyte interface stability......Systematic microstructural analyses have been carried out on a series of technological SOFCs that went through long-term cell tests with various operating parameters including temperature, current load and time length under current. For the LSM-YSZ cathode, a number of microstructure degradation....... For the cells tested at 850 °C, the interface stability is maintained due to further sintering during cell operation. A cell test lasting for 2 years (17500 h) at 850 °C with a moderate current density (not greater than 1 A/cm2) has shown that the cathode microstructure is fairly robust to the degradation...

  10. SHIWA Services for Workflow Creation and Sharing in Hydrometeorolog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terstyanszky, Gabor; Kiss, Tamas; Kacsuk, Peter; Sipos, Gergely

    2014-05-01

    pre-deployed workflow engines or submits workflow engines with the workflow to local or remote resources to execute workflows. The SHIWA Proxy Server manages certificates needed to execute the workflows on different DCIs. Currently SSP supports sharing of ASKALON, Galaxy, GWES, Kepler, LONI Pipeline, MOTEUR, Pegasus, P-GRADE, ProActive, Triana, Taverna and WS-PGRADE workflows. Further workflow systems can be added to the simulation platform as required by research communities. The FP7 'Building a European Research Community through Interoperable Workflows and Data' (ER-flow) project disseminates the achievements of the SHIWA project to build workflow user communities across Europe. ER-flow provides application supports to research communities within (Astrophysics, Computational Chemistry, Heliophysics and Life Sciences) and beyond (Hydrometeorology and Seismology) to develop, share and run workflows through the simulation platform. The simulation platform supports four usage scenarios: creating and publishing workflows in the repository, searching and selecting workflows in the repository, executing non-native workflows and creating and running meta-workflows. The presentation will outline the CGI concept, the SHIWA Simulation Platform, the ER-flow usage scenarios and how the Hydrometeorology research community runs simulations on SSP.

  11. What are the hydro-meteorological controls on flood characteristics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nied, Manuela; Schröter, Kai; Lüdtke, Stefan; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Merz, Bruno

    2017-02-01

    Flood events can be expressed by a variety of characteristics such as flood magnitude and extent, event duration or incurred loss. Flood estimation and management may benefit from understanding how the different flood characteristics relate to the hydrological catchment conditions preceding the event and to the meteorological conditions throughout the event. In this study, we therefore propose a methodology to investigate the hydro-meteorological controls on different flood characteristics, based on the simulation of the complete flood risk chain from the flood triggering precipitation event, through runoff generation in the catchment, flood routing and possible inundation in the river system and floodplains to flood loss. Conditional cumulative distribution functions and regression tree analysis delineate the seasonal varying flood processes and indicate that the effect of the hydrological pre-conditions, i.e. soil moisture patterns, and of the meteorological conditions, i.e. weather patterns, depends on the considered flood characteristic. The methodology is exemplified for the Elbe catchment. In this catchment, the length of the build-up period, the event duration and the number of gauges undergoing at least a 10-year flood are governed by weather patterns. The affected length and the number of gauges undergoing at least a 2-year flood are however governed by soil moisture patterns. In case of flood severity and loss, the controlling factor is less pronounced. Severity is slightly governed by soil moisture patterns whereas loss is slightly governed by weather patterns. The study highlights that flood magnitude and extent arise from different flood generation processes and concludes that soil moisture patterns as well as weather patterns are not only beneficial to inform on possible flood occurrence but also on the involved flood processes and resulting flood characteristics.

  12. Paleoclimatological perspective on the hydrometeorology of the Mekong Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Räsänen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available During recent decades the Mekong River has experienced substantial interannual variations between droughts and major floods. The causes of these variations have been sought in climate change and dam construction. However, so far little research has addressed whether these recent variations are significantly different to long-term variations in the past. Hence, the aim of our paper is to place the recent variations between droughts and floods into a historical and paleoclimatological context. To achieve this we analysed the Mekong's meteorological conditions over the period 1300–2005 with a basin scale approach by using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA, which is a Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI dataset derived from tree-ring growth records. The correlation analyses, both in time and frequency domains, showed correlation between MADA and the Mekong's discharge over the period 1910–2005 which suggests that MADA can be used as proxy for the hydrometeorology of the Mekong Basin. We found that the meteorological conditions of the Mekong varied at multi-annual, decadal and centennial scales over the study period. We found two especially distinct features: firstly, multi-annual and decadal variation between prolonged wet and dry epochs; and secondly, epochs with higher or lower interannual variability between very dry and wet years. Furthermore we found two epochs with exceptionally large interannual variability, one at the beginning of 17th century and the other in the post 1950 epoch. Both epochs are characterized by distinct increases in variability between very wet and dry years. The variability in the post 1950 epoch is much higher compared to any of the other epochs included in this study. Thus, during recent decades the climate in the Mekong has exhibited features that have not been experienced for at least several centuries. These findings call for further climate research, particularly regarding increased climate variability, and

  13. Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. K. Meyer

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN. For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day−1. Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day−1. The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

  14. Paleoclimatological perspective on the hydrometeorology of the Mekong Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Räsänen, T. A.; Lehr, C.; Mellin, I.; Ward, P. J.; Kummu, M.

    2012-11-01

    During recent decades the Mekong River has experienced substantial interannual variations between droughts and major floods. The causes of these variations have been sought in climate change and dam construction. However, so far little research has addressed whether these recent variations are significantly different to long-term variations in the past. Hence, the aim of our paper is to place the recent variations between droughts and floods into a historical and paleoclimatological context. To achieve this we analysed the Mekong's meteorological conditions over the period 1300-2005 with a basin scale approach by using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), which is a Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset derived from tree-ring growth records. The correlation analyses, both in time and frequency domains, showed correlation between MADA and the Mekong's discharge over the period 1910-2005 which suggests that MADA can be used as proxy for the hydrometeorology of the Mekong Basin. We found that the meteorological conditions of the Mekong varied at multi-annual, decadal and centennial scales over the study period. We found two especially distinct features: firstly, multi-annual and decadal variation between prolonged wet and dry epochs; and secondly, epochs with higher or lower interannual variability between very dry and wet years. Furthermore we found two epochs with exceptionally large interannual variability, one at the beginning of 17th century and the other in the post 1950 epoch. Both epochs are characterized by distinct increases in variability between very wet and dry years. The variability in the post 1950 epoch is much higher compared to any of the other epochs included in this study. Thus, during recent decades the climate in the Mekong has exhibited features that have not been experienced for at least several centuries. These findings call for further climate research, particularly regarding increased climate variability, and resilient adaptation

  15. Polarization Induced Changes in LSM Thin Film Electrode Composition Observed by In Operando Raman Spectroscopy and TOF-SIMS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McIntyre, Melissa D.; Traulsen, Marie Lund; Norrman, Kion

    2015-01-01

    Polarization induced changes in LSM electrode composition were investigated by utilizing in operando Raman spectroscopy and post mortem TOF-SIMS depth profiling. Experiments were conducted on cells with 160 nm thick (La0.85Sr0.15)0.9MnO3±δ thin film electrodes in 10% O2 at 700 °C under various...

  16. Polarization Induced Changes in LSM Thin Film Electrode Composition Observed by In Operando Raman Spectroscopy and TOF-SIMS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McIntyre, Melissa D.; Walker, Robert; Traulsen, Marie Lund;

    2015-01-01

    For decades strontium doped lanthanum manganite (LSM) electrodes have been the material of choice for cathodes in high temperature solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs). LSM has relatively high electrical conductivity at high temperatures and has mechanical properties that are well matched to yttria......) CGO barrier layer. Experiments were conducted on cells with 200 nm thick (La0.85Sr0.15)0.9MnO3±δ electrodes in 10% O2 at 500°C and 700°C under various electrical polarisations (-0.5V, ±1V and -2.5V). Raman spectra recorded continuously during polarisation showed evidence of shifts in band intensities...... into “layers” in the LSM electrode poses interesting questions about mass transfer and ion migration in conducting materials subject to electrical polarisation. Figure 1. Representative Raman spectra collected on an LSM electrode at 700 °C with the cell open at circuit voltage (OCV) and polarised at (a) -1 V...

  17. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  18. EU and international policies for hydrometeorological risks:Operational aspects and link to climate action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Philippe QUEVAUVILLER; Marco GEMMER

    2015-01-01

    Changes in hydrometeorological characteristics and risks have been observed and are projected to increase under climate change. These considerations are scientifically well studied and led to the development of a complex policy framework for adaptation and mitigation for hydrometeorological risks. Awareness for policy actions is growing worldwide but no legal framework is in place to tackle climate change impacts on water at a global scale. With the example of international frameworks and the legislation on EU-level, this article elaborates that hydrometeorological risks are not considered in the framework of one single policy. However, various policy instruments are directly or indirectly considering these risks at different operational levels. It is discussed that a tailor-made framework for hydrometeorological risks would improve coordination at international or national level. A major drawback for a single operational framework is that hydrometeorological risks are scientifically tackled in two large communities:the disaster risk reduction community and the climate change adaptation community, both of which are bound to different research and operational funding budgets. In future, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation will need been seen as a complementary set of actions that requires collaboration.

  19. Electrochemical NOx reduction on an LSM/CGO symmetric cell modified by NOx adsorbents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shao, Jing; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2013-01-01

    nitrate reduction. The cell with the BaO/Pt/Al2O3 layer exhibited a preferable performance at low temperatures (350 and 400 °C) and low voltages (1.5 to 2 V) due to the NO oxidation ability of the Pt catalyst, although its performance was relatively poor at elevated temperatures and voltages due......This study investigated the effect of modifying a (La0.85Sr0.15)0.99MnO3 (LSM)/Ce0.9Gd0.1O1.95 (CGO) symmetric cell by NOx adsorbents on the electrochemical reduction of NOx under O2-rich conditions. The modification was based on a full ceramic cell structure without any noble metals. Three cells...... were prepared and tested: a blank cell, a cell impregnated with BaO, and a cell coated with a BaO/Pt/Al2O3 layer. The electrochemical reduction of NOx on the three cells was studied by conversion measurement, degradation testing, and microstructure characterization. The modification, either...

  20. Leveraging Improvements in Precipitation Measuring from GPM Mission to Achieve Prediction Improvements in Climate, Weather and Hydrometeorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric A.

    2002-01-01

    The main scientific goal of the GPM mission, currently planned for start in the 2007 time frame, is to investigate important scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing Operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US and the National Space Development Agency in Japan. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international partners and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave

  1. Impedance of SOFC electrodes: A review and a comprehensive case study on the impedance of LSM:YSZ cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jimmi; Hjelm, Johan

    2014-01-01

    It was shown through a comprehensive impedance spectroscopy study that the impedance of the classic composite LSM:YSZ (lanthanum strontium manganite and yttria stabilized zirconia) solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cathode can be described well with porous electrode theory. Furthermore, it was illustr......It was shown through a comprehensive impedance spectroscopy study that the impedance of the classic composite LSM:YSZ (lanthanum strontium manganite and yttria stabilized zirconia) solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cathode can be described well with porous electrode theory. Furthermore...... acquired in the very broad temperature range of 200–900°C for complete elucidation of the impedance. All impedance spectra were analyzed in terms of porous electrode theory. Physical materials parameters were extracted from the analysis, which were in excellent accordance with literature values. Valuable...

  2. EXTREME HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA ON THE HYDROGRAPHICAL BASIN OF TIMIŞ RIVER (1965-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ANDREEA MIHAELA ARBA

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena on the hydrographical basin of Timiş river (1965-2009. The study of extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena or of the climatic and hydrological risks involve a wide range of issues, which should start with the climatic and hydrological data and should end with the monitoring of the risk factors, in order to pass from the diagnosis analysis to the prognosis one. We intended to draw up such a comprehensive study as well because it combines the classical methodology (field research, deductive, inductive, historical methods with the specific methodology of the Geographical Informational Systems (G.I.S.. To analyse the hydro-meteorological phenomena on the basin, we used the climatic and hydrological data collected on the field from 6 meteorological stations and from 5 hydrometric stations, during a common period of 45 years (1965-2009. The extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena which were identified on the basin and which were analysed in the study herein are: the extreme temperatures, the periods with pluviometric surplus, the heavy rains, the drought and dryness phenomena, as well as the floods.

  3. High temperature oxidation behavior of interconnect coated with LSCF and LSM for solid oxide fuel cell by screen printing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shyong; Chu, Chun-Lin; Tsai, Ming-Jui; Lee, Jye

    2010-01-01

    The current study examined the effect of La 0.6Sr 0.4Co 0.2Fe 0.8O 3 (LSCF) and La 0.7Sr 0.3MnO 3 (LSM) coatings on the electrical properties and oxidation resistance of Crofer22 APU at 800 °C hot air. LSCF and LSM were coated on Crofer22 APU by screen printing and sintered over temperatures ranging from 1000 to 1100 °C in N 2. The coated alloy was first checked for compositions, morphology and interface conditions and then treated in a simulated oxidizing environment at 800 °C for 200 h. After measuring the long-term electrical resistance, the area specific resistance (ASR) at 800 °C for the alloy coated with LSCF was less than its counterpart coated with LSM. This work used LSCF coating as a metallic interconnect to reduce working temperature for the solid oxide fuel cell.

  4. Visualizing the structural evolution of LSM/xYSZ composite cathodes for SOFC by in-situ neutron diffraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yan; Yang, Ling; Ren, Fei; An, Ke

    2014-06-05

    Thermal stability of composite cathodes for solid oxide fuel cells, the mixtures of (La0.8Sr0.2)0.95MnO(3-δ) (LSM) and (Y2O3)(x)(ZrO2)(1-x) (xYSZ, x = 3, 6, 8 and 10), is determined using in-situ neutron diffraction. Thanks to the most advanced high flux neutron source, our work highlights the visualization of the phase evolutions in heterogeneous material systems at high temperatures, along with the analysis of the diffusion activities of transition metal ions that reveal the reaction mechanism and kinetics. It is found that the tetragonal-to-cubic phase transition in YSZ at T > 900°C leads to a heterogeneous redistribution of Mn ions. The subsequent reaction of LSM and YSZ occurring at T > 1100°C is revealed as a three-stage kinetic process, yielding La2Zr2O7, SrZrO3 and MnO. The diffusion activities of Y, Mn and La ions in the heterogeneous systems at elevated temperatures are derived by the structural analysis, and the three-stage reaction of YSZ and LSM is found strongly correlated to ions' behaviors as functions of temperature.

  5. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fundel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month.

    The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive

  6. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2013-01-01

    Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

  7. Linking non-culturable (qPCR) and culturable enterococci densities with hydrometeorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara N.; Whitman, Richard L.; Shively, Dawn A.; Nevers, Meredith B.

    2010-01-01

    Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) measurement of enterococci has been proposed as a rapid technique for assessment of beach water quality, but the response of qPCR results to environmental conditions has not been fully explored. Culture-based E. coli and enterococci have been used in empirical predictive models to characterize their responses to environmental conditions and to increase monitoring frequency and efficiency. This approach has been attempted with qPCR results only in few studies. During the summer of 2006, water samples were collected from two southern Lake Michigan beaches and the nearby river outfall (Burns Ditch) and were analyzed for enterococci by culture-based and non-culture-based (i.e., qPCR) methods, as well as culture-based E. coli. Culturable enterococci densities (log CFU/100 ml) for the beaches were significantly correlated with enterococci qPCR cell equivalents (CE) (R = 0.650, P N = 32). Enterococci CE and CFU densities were highest in Burns Ditch relative to the beach sites; however, only CFUs were significantly higher (P R = 0.565, P N = 32). Culturable E. coli and enterococci densities were significantly correlated (R = 0.682, P N = 32). Regression analyses suggested that enterococci CFU could be predicted by lake turbidity, Burns Ditch discharge, and wind direction (adjusted R2 = 0.608); enterococci CE was best predicted by Burns Ditch discharge and log-transformed lake turbidity × wave height (adjusted R2 = 0.40). In summary, our results show that analytically, the qPCR method compares well to the non-culture-based method for measuring enterococci densities in beach water and that both these approaches can be predicted by hydrometeorological conditions. Selected predictors and model results highlight the differences between the environmental responses of the two method endpoints and the potentially high variance in qPCR results

  8. Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Vidal

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc. on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI. Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow. Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990 to short hot and dry periods (2003. Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly

  9. Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Vidal

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc. on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI. Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990 to short hot and dry periods (2003. This multilevel and multiscale drought climatology will serve as a basis for assessing the impacts of climate change on droughts in France.

  10. Development of a Spatial Decision Support System for Analyzing Changes in Hydro-meteorological Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees

    2013-04-01

    In the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN Network "CHANGES: Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks, as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists (http://www.changes-itn.eu)", a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyze the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The SDSS is one of the main outputs of the CHANGES network, which will develop an advanced understanding of how global changes, related to environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical change, may affect the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe; how these changes can be assessed, modeled, and incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication. The CHANGES network consists of 11 full partners and 6 associate partners of which 5 private companies, representing 10 European countries. The CHANGES network has hired 12 Early Stage Researchers (ESRs) and is currently hiring 3-6 researchers more for the implementation of the SDSS. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and

  11. Development of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting as AN Essential Component of the Early Flood Warning System:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manukalo, V.

    2012-12-01

    Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of

  12. Consideration of hazardous and especially hazardous hydrometeorological impacts in design of buildings and structures of nuclear power plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryukhan Fedor

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available External impacts of the hydrometeorological origin have a significant influence on the safety level of objects of use of atomic energy (OUAE, including nuclear power plants (NPP. Therefore, the existing NPP-related safety regulations demand to consider such impacts at all stages of the NPP life cycle. It is important to make decisions on considering or ignoring certain external impacts while designing NPP buildings and structures. The main criterion for such decisions is the probability of a non-project accident associated with the release of radionuclides into the environment when an extreme phenomena occurs. The aim of this study is to develop a concept for refinement regulatory requirements, considering hydrometeorological factors in organization of NPP engineering protection. Criteria for consideration of hazardous and especially hazardous hydrometeorological impacts for design of NPP buildings and structures were analyzed, and recommendations for refinement of regulatory requirements, considering hydrometeorological factors in organization of NPP engineering protection, were developed.

  13. Task of generation of variants of subsystems in to the automated hydrometeorological system on basis of morphological synthesis

    OpenAIRE

    Доронина, Юлия Валентиновна

    2011-01-01

    The aspects of generation of variants of subsystems are examined for  the hydrometeorological system. Principles of generation of variants are rotined on the basis of morphological synthesis, statements of genetic algorithm

  14. Dynamic behavior of impurities and native components in model LSM microelectrodes on YSZ

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norrman, Kion; Hansen, Karin Vels; Jacobsen, Torben

    2015-01-01

    Strontium-doped lanthanum manganite is a widely used cathode material in solid oxide fuel cells. Segregation phenomena can have a critical impact on performance and durability, especially when they cause active interfaces to degrade. The segregation behavior in polarized and non-polarized strontium...... behavior of the native components (La, Sr, Mn) and selected impurities (Si, K, Na) both laterally and in-depth. Manganese was found to be especially mobile and showed both segregation onto the electrolyte as a result of temperature and polarization and dissolution into the electrolyte below...

  15. Palaeoclimatological perspective on river basin hydrometeorology: case of the Mekong Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Räsänen, T. A.; Lehr, C.; Mellin, I.; Ward, P. J.; Kummu, M.

    2013-05-01

    Globally, there have been many extreme weather events in recent decades. A challenge has been to determine whether these extreme weather events have increased in number and intensity compared to the past. This challenge is made more difficult due to the lack of long-term instrumental data, particularly in terms of river discharge, in many regions including Southeast Asia. Thus our main aim in this paper is to develop a river basin scale approach for assessing interannual hydrometeorological and discharge variability on long, palaeological, time scales. For the development of the basin-wide approach, we used the Mekong River basin as a case study area, although the approach is also intended to be applicable to other basins. Firstly, we derived a basin-wide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA). Secondly, we compared the basin-wide PDSI with measured discharge to validate our approach. Thirdly, we used basin-wide PDSI to analyse the hydrometeorology and discharge of the case study area over the study period of 1300-2005. For the discharge-MADA comparison and hydrometeorological analyses, we used methods such as linear correlations, smoothing, moving window variances, Levene type tests for variances, and wavelet analyses. We found that the developed basin-wide approach based on MADA can be used for assessing long-term average conditions and interannual variability for river basin hydrometeorology and discharge. It provides a tool for studying interannual discharge variability on a palaeological time scale, and therefore the approach contributes to a better understanding of discharge variability during the most recent decades. Our case study revealed that the Mekong has experienced exceptional levels of interannual variability during the post-1950 period, which could not be observed in any other part of the study period. The increased variability was found to be at least partly associated with increased El Niño Southern

  16. Characterization of LSM/CGO Symmetric Cells Modified by NOx Adsorbents for Electrochemical NOx Removal with Impedance Spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shao, Jing; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2013-01-01

    /CGO electrode by selectively trapping NO2 in the form of nitrate over the BaO sites and provided availability for a direct reduction of the stored nitrate. The BaO-Pt-Al2O3 layer enhanced the NOx adsorption and promoted the formation of NO2 due to the NO oxidation ability of the Pt catalyst, but hindered......This study uses electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) to characterize an LSM/CGO symmetric cell modified by NOx adsorbents for the application of electrochemical NOx reduction. Three cells were prepared and tested: a blank cell, a cell impregnated with BaO, and a cell coated with a Ba...

  17. LSm14A Plays a Critical Role in Antiviral Immune Responses by Regulating MITA Level in a Cell-Specific Manner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tian-Tian; Yang, Qing; Li, Mi; Zhong, Bo; Ran, Yong; Liu, Li-Li; Yang, Yan; Wang, Yan-Yi; Shu, Hong-Bing

    2016-06-15

    Viral infection triggers induction of antiviral cytokines and effectors, which are critical mediators of innate antiviral immune response. It has been shown that the processing body-associated protein LSm14A is involved in the induction of antiviral cytokines in cell lines but in vivo evidence is lacking. By generating LSm14A-deficient mice, in this study, we show that LSm14A plays a critical and specific role in the induction of antiviral cytokines in dendritic cells (DCs) but not in macrophages and fibroblasts. Induction of antiviral cytokines triggered by the DNA viruses HSV-1 and murid herpesvirus 68 and the RNA virus vesicular stomatitis virus but not Sendai virus was impaired in Lsm14a(-/-) DCs, which is correlated to the functions of the adaptor protein MITA/STING in the antiviral signaling pathways. LSm14A deficiency specifically downregulated MITA/STING level in DCs by impairing its nuclear mRNA precursor processing and subsequently impaired antiviral innate and adaptive immune responses. Our findings reveal a nuclear mRNA precursor processing and cell-specific regulatory mechanism of antiviral immune responses.

  18. Hydro-meteorological and micro-climatic impacts of urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, D.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Baeck, M. L.; Jessup, S.; Smith, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    Urbanization is one of the important drivers of micro and regional climate change. However, urban modeling still faces significant challenges mainly due to difficulties in representing small-scale physical processes occurring in urban canopies and in parameterizing the highly heterogeneous urban surfaces at regional scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be a powerful tool in overcoming these challenges due to its nesting and large-eddy simulation capabilities. In this study, we use the WRF model to study the impact of urbanization on urban hydrology (particularly rainfall) and the urban microclimate (i.e., the urban heat island) along the Baltimore-Washington Corridor. Two periods are simulated using WRF, one includes a heavy rainfall event and the other includes a heat wave event. The simulation results are compared to a variety of measurements, including radar rainfall estimates; vertical profiles of wind, water vapor and potential temperature; surface meteorological observations; and remotely-observed land surface temperature. The findings indicate that changing urban surface representations in the WRF model leads to significant changes in the rainfall pattern and amount, due to the modification of the surface energy budgets and the canopy effect. The sensitivity of urban rainfall modeling to urban surface models is comparable to the sensitivity to the microphysics schemes. The urban canopy model (UCM) is critical for capturing the surface energy partitioning and the land surface temperature. We also observe that the default single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) in WRF overestimates the surface temperatures along Washington-Baltimore Corridor when compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations. To improve the model performance, a new urban canopy model, calibrated using field observations, with two surface types for the roofs (conventional roof and green roof) and three for the ground (asphalt

  19. Investigation on Prototype Superconducting Linear Synchronous Motor (LSM) for 600-km/h Wheel-Type Railway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Beomyong; Lee, Changhyeong; Kim, Seokho; Lee, Changyoung; Yun, Sangwon

    The existing wheel-type high-speed railway with a rotatable motor has a limit of 600 km/h speed. The normal conducting electromagnet has several disadvantages to realize 600 km/h speed. Several disadvantages are the increased space and weight, and the decreased electric efficiency to generate the required high magnetic field. In order to reduce the volume and weight, superconducting electromagnets can be considered for LSM (Linear Synchronous Motor). Prior to the fabrication of the real system, a prototype demo-coil is designed and fabricated using 2G high temperature superconducting wire. The prototype HTS coil is cooled by the conduction using a GM cryocooler. To reduce the heat penetration, thermal design was performed for the current leads, supporting structure and radiation shield considering the thermal stress. The operating temperature and current are 30∼40 K and 100 A. The coil consists of two double pancake coils (N, S pole, respectively) and it is driven on a test rail, which is installed for the test car. This paper describes the design and test results of the prototype HTS LSM system. Thermal characteristics are investigated with additional dummy thermal mass on the coil after turning off the cryocooler.

  20. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests: Hydrometeorological variability in three neighbouring catchments with different forest cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Beatriz H.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Ganzeveld, Laurens; Hegger, Zita; Leemans, Rik

    2017-09-01

    Mountain areas are characterized by a large heterogeneity in hydrological and meteorological conditions. This heterogeneity is currently poorly represented by gauging networks and by the coarse scale of global and regional climate and hydrological models. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCFs) are found in a narrow elevation range and are characterized by persistent fog. Their water balance depends on local and upwind temperatures and moisture, therefore, changes in these parameters will alter TMCF hydrology. Until recently the hydrological functioning of TMCFs was mainly studied in coastal regions, while continental TMCFs were largely ignored. This study contributes to fill this gap by focusing on a TMCF which is located on the northern eastern Andes at an elevation of 1550-2300 m asl, in the Orinoco river basin highlands. In this study, we describe the spatial and seasonal meteorological variability, analyse the corresponding catchment hydrological response to different land cover, and perform a sensitivity analysis on uncertainties related to rainfall interpolation, catchment area estimation and streamflow measurements. Hydro-meteorological measurements, including hourly solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow, were collected from June 2013 to May 2014 at three gauged neighbouring catchments with contrasting TMCF/grassland cover and less than 250 m elevation difference. We found wetter and less seasonally contrasting conditions at higher elevations, indicating a positive relation between elevation and fog or rainfall persistence. This pattern is similar to that of other eastern Andean TMCFs, however, the study site had higher wet season rainfall and lower dry season rainfall suggesting that upwind contrasts in land cover and moisture can influence the meteorological conditions at eastern Andean TMCFs. Contrasting streamflow dynamics between the studied catchments reflect the overall system response

  1. Supporting Hydrometeorological Research and Applications with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Products and Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, D.; Vollmer, B.; Deshong, B.; MacRitchie, K.; Greene, M.; Kempler, S.

    2016-01-01

    Precipitation is an important dataset in hydrometeorological research and applications such as flood modeling, drought monitoring, etc. On February 27, 2014, the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was launched to provide the next-generation global observations of rain and snow (http:pmm.nasa.govGPM). The GPM mission consists of an international network of satellites in which a GPM Core Observatory satellite carries both active and passive microwave instruments to measure precipitation and serve as a reference standard, to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of other research and operational satellites. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) hosts and distributes GPM data. The GES DISC is home to the data archive for the GPM predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). GPM products currently available include the following:1. Level-1 GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and partner radiometer products2. Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) GMI and partner products (Level-2 and Level-3)3. GPM dual-frequency precipitation radar and their combined products (Level-2 and Level-3)4. Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products (early, late, and final run)GPM data can be accessed through a number of data services (e.g., Simple Subset Wizard, OPeNDAP, WMS, WCS, ftp, etc.). A newly released Unified User Interface or UUI is a single interface to provide users seamless access to data, information and services. For example, a search for precipitation products will not only return TRMM and GPM products, but also other global precipitation products such as MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications), GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation Systems), etc.New features and capabilities have been recently added in GIOVANNI to allow exploring and inter-comparing GPM IMERG (Integrated Multi-satelliE Retrievals for GPM) half-hourly and monthly precipitation

  2. Dealing with uncertainties in impact studies of climate change on hydrometeorological series over Segura River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Galiano, S. G.; Garcia Cardenas, R.; Tetay Botia, C.; Giraldo Osorio, J.; Erena Arrabal, M.; Baille, A.

    2011-12-01

    The Segura River Basin (SRB) located in the South East of Spain, is affected by recurrent drought and water scarcity episodes. This basin presents the lowest percentage of renewable water resources of all the Spanish basins. Intensive reforestation has been carried out in the region, to halt desertification and erosion, which added to climate change and variability, do not allow the default assumption of stationarity in the water resources systems. Therefore, the study of effects in hydrometeorological series should be addressed by nonstationary probabilistic models that allow describing the time evolution of their probability distribution functions (PDFs). In the present work, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shaper) approach is applied to identify of spatio-temporal trends in observed precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), at basin scale. Several previous studies have addressed the potential impacts of climate change in water supply systems, focusing on the sensitivity analysis of runoff to climate. Considering the use of a conceptual hydrological model with few parameters, the impacts on runoff and its trend from historical data, are assessed. The conclusions of this study represent a breakthrough in the development of methodologies to understand and anticipate the impacts on water resources systems, in the light of current and future climate conditions, considering hydroclimatic non-stationarity. These findings are expected to contribute to the management of conditions of water resources scarcity and droughts, such as the observed in the SRB, as support to decision-making process by stakeholders.

  3. Application of Hydrometeorological Information for Short-term and Long-term Water Resources Management over Ungauged Basin in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji-in; Ryu, Kyongsik; Suh, Ae-sook

    2016-04-01

    In 2014, three major governmental organizations that are Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), K-water, and Korea Rural Community Corporation have been established the Hydrometeorological Cooperation Center (HCC) to accomplish more effective water management for scarcely gauged river basins, where data are uncertain or non-consistent. To manage the optimal drought and flood control over the ungauged river, HCC aims to interconnect between weather observations and forecasting information, and hydrological model over sparse regions with limited observations sites in Korean peninsula. In this study, long-term forecasting ensemble models so called Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system, provided by KMA was used in order to produce drought outlook. Glosea5 ensemble model prediction provides predicted drought information for 1 and 3 months ahead with drought index including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Also, Global Precipitation Measurement and Global Climate Observation Measurement - Water1 satellites data products are used to estimate rainfall and soil moisture contents over the ungauged region.

  4. ICT approaches to integrating institutional and non-institutional data services for better understanding of hydro-meteorological phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedrina, T.; Parodi, A.; Quarati, A.; Clematis, A.

    2012-06-01

    It is widely recognised that an effective exploitation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) is an enabling factor to achieve major advancements in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR). Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to the use of ICT in HMR activities, e.g. in order to facilitate data exchange and integration, to improve computational capabilities and consequently model resolution and quality. Nowadays, ICT technologies have demonstrated that it is possible to extend monitoring networks by integrating sensors and other sources of data managed by volunteer's communities. These networks are constituted by peers that span a wide portion of the territory in many countries. The peers are "location aware" in the sense that they provide information strictly related with their geospatial location. The coverage of these networks, in general, is not uniform and the location of peers may follow random distribution. The ICT features used to set up the network are lightweight and user friendly, thus, permitting the peers to join the network without the necessity of specialised ICT knowledge. In this perspective it is of increasing interest for HMR activities to elaborate of Personal Weather Station (PWS) networks, capable to provide almost real-time, location aware, weather data. Moreover, different big players of the web arena are now providing world-wide backbones, suitable to present on detailed map location aware information, obtained by mashing up data from different sources. This is the case, for example, with Google Earth and Google Maps. This paper presents the design of a mashup application aimed at aggregating, refining and visualizing near real-time hydro-meteorological datasets. In particular, we focused on the integration of instant precipitation depths, registered either by widespread semi-professional weather stations and official ones. This sort of information has high importance and usefulness in decision support systems and Civil

  5. ICT approaches to integrating institutional and non-institutional data services for better understanding of hydro-meteorological phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Bedrina

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available It is widely recognised that an effective exploitation of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT is an enabling factor to achieve major advancements in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR. Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to the use of ICT in HMR activities, e.g. in order to facilitate data exchange and integration, to improve computational capabilities and consequently model resolution and quality. Nowadays, ICT technologies have demonstrated that it is possible to extend monitoring networks by integrating sensors and other sources of data managed by volunteer's communities. These networks are constituted by peers that span a wide portion of the territory in many countries. The peers are "location aware" in the sense that they provide information strictly related with their geospatial location. The coverage of these networks, in general, is not uniform and the location of peers may follow random distribution. The ICT features used to set up the network are lightweight and user friendly, thus, permitting the peers to join the network without the necessity of specialised ICT knowledge. In this perspective it is of increasing interest for HMR activities to elaborate of Personal Weather Station (PWS networks, capable to provide almost real-time, location aware, weather data.

    Moreover, different big players of the web arena are now providing world-wide backbones, suitable to present on detailed map location aware information, obtained by mashing up data from different sources. This is the case, for example, with Google Earth and Google Maps.

    This paper presents the design of a mashup application aimed at aggregating, refining and visualizing near real-time hydro-meteorological datasets. In particular, we focused on the integration of instant precipitation depths, registered either by widespread semi-professional weather stations and official ones. This sort of information has high importance and usefulness in

  6. Long-range hydrometeorological ensemble predictions of drought parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2012-06-01

    Low streamflow as consequence of a drought event affects numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that may be impacted by drought are, e.g. power production, agriculture, tourism and water quality management. Numerical models have increasingly been used to forecast low-flow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the low-flow indices duration, severity and magnitude, with a forecast lead-time of one month, to assess their potential usefulness for predictions. The ECMWF VarEPS 5 member reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification shows that, compared to peak flow, probabilistic low-flow forecasts are skillful for longer lead-times, low-flow index forecasts could also be beneficially included in a decision-making process. The results suggest monthly runoff forecasts are useful for accessing the risk of hydrological droughts.

  7. Hydro-meteorological evaluation of downscaled global ensemble rainfall forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaborit, Étienne; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Pelletier, Geneviève

    2013-04-01

    Ensemble rainfall forecasts are of high interest for decision making, as they provide an explicit and dynamic assessment of the uncertainty in the forecast (Ruiz et al. 2009). However, for hydrological forecasting, their low resolution currently limits their use to large watersheds (Maraun et al. 2010). In order to bridge this gap, various implementations of the statistic-stochastic multi-fractal downscaling technique presented by Perica and Foufoula-Georgiou (1996) were compared, bringing Environment Canada's global ensemble rainfall forecasts from a 100 by 70-km resolution down to 6 by 4-km, while increasing each pixel's rainfall variance and preserving its original mean. For comparison purposes, simpler methods were also implemented such as the bi-linear interpolation, which disaggregates global forecasts without modifying their variance. The downscaled meteorological products were evaluated using different scores and diagrams, from both a meteorological and a hydrological view points. The meteorological evaluation was conducted comparing the forecasted rainfall depths against nine days of observed values taken from Québec City rain gauge database. These 9 days present strong precipitation events occurring during the summer of 2009. For the hydrologic evaluation, the hydrological models SWMM5 and (a modified version of) GR4J were implemented on a small 6 km2 urban catchment located in the Québec City region. Ensemble hydrologic forecasts with a time step of 3 hours were then performed over a 3-months period of the summer of 2010 using the original and downscaled ensemble rainfall forecasts. The most important conclusions of this work are that the overall quality of the forecasts was preserved during the disaggregation procedure and that the disaggregated products using this variance-enhancing method were of similar quality than bi-linear interpolation products. However, variance and dispersion of the different members were, of course, much improved for the

  8. Overview of Hydrometeorologic Forecasting Procedures at BC Hydro

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollor, D.

    2004-12-01

    Energy utility companies must balance production from limited sources with increasing demand from industrial, business, and residential consumers. The utility planning process requires a balanced, efficient, and effective distribution of energy from source to consumer. Therefore utility planners must consider the impact of weather on energy production and consumption. Hydro-electric companies should be particularly tuned to weather because their source of energy is water, and water supply depends on precipitation. BC Hydro operates as the largest hydro-electric company in western Canada, managing over 30 reservoirs within the province of British Columbia, and generating electricity for 1.6 million people. BC Hydro relies on weather forecasts of watershed precipitation and temperature to drive hydrologic reservoir inflow models and of urban temperatures to meet energy demand requirements. Operations and planning specialists in the company rely on current, value-added weather forecasts for extreme high-inflow events, daily reservoir operations planning, and long-term water resource management. Weather plays a dominant role for BC Hydro financial planners in terms of sensitive economic responses. For example, a two percent change in hydropower generation, due in large part to annual precipitation patterns, results in an annual net change of \\50 million in earnings. A five percent change in temperature produces a \\5 million change in yearly earnings. On a daily basis, significant precipitation events or temperature extremes involve potential profit/loss decisions in the tens of thousands of dollars worth of power generation. These factors are in addition to environmental and societal costs that must be considered equally as part of a triple bottom line reporting structure. BC Hydro water resource managers require improved meteorological information from recent advancements in numerical weather prediction. At BC Hydro, methods of providing meteorological forecast data

  9. Analysis of the sintering stresses and shape distortion produced in co-firing of CGO-LSM/CGO bi-layer porous structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ni, De Wei; Esposito, Vincenzo; Schmidt, Cristine Grings

    Gadolinium-doped cerium oxide (CGO) and lanthanum strontium manganate (LSM) are electro-ceramics materials with high potential for several electrochemical applications such as solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC), gas separation membranes, and flue gas purification devices. Especially for novel electroch......Gadolinium-doped cerium oxide (CGO) and lanthanum strontium manganate (LSM) are electro-ceramics materials with high potential for several electrochemical applications such as solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC), gas separation membranes, and flue gas purification devices. Especially for novel...... electrochemical flue gas purification devices, multilayer structures with alternating porous layers of CGO and a LSM/CGO mixture are used to achieve specific functional requirements. In a manufacturing process of such ceramic multilayer devices, co-firing is one of the critical steps as many defects...... such as cracks, de-lamination and shape distortion can result as a consequence of sintering mismatch stresses caused by the strain rate difference between layers. This work seeks to understand the underlying mechanisms that occur during the co-firing of porous CGO-LSM/CGO bi-layer laminates, by evaluating...

  10. Mapping microscopic order in plant and mammalian cells and tissues: novel differential polarization attachment for new generation confocal microscopes (DP-LSM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinbach, G.; Pawlak, K.; Pomozi, I.; Tóth, E. A.; Molnár, A.; Matkó, J.; Garab, G.

    2014-03-01

    Elucidation of the molecular architecture of complex, highly organized molecular macro-assemblies is an important, basic task for biology. Differential polarization (DP) measurements, such as linear (LD) and circular dichroism (CD) or the anisotropy of the fluorescence emission (r), which can be carried out in a dichrograph or spectrofluorimeter, respectively, carry unique, spatially averaged information about the molecular organization of the sample. For inhomogeneous samples—e.g. cells and tissues—measurements on macroscopic scale are not satisfactory, and in some cases not feasible, thus microscopic techniques must be applied. The microscopic DP-imaging technique, when based on confocal laser scanning microscope (LSM), allows the pixel by pixel mapping of anisotropy of a sample in 2D and 3D. The first DP-LSM configuration, which, in fluorescence mode, allowed confocal imaging of different DP quantities in real-time, without interfering with the ‘conventional’ imaging, was built on a Zeiss LSM410. It was demonstrated to be capable of determining non-confocally the linear birefringence (LB) or LD of a sample and, confocally, its FDLD (fluorescence detected LD), the degree of polarization (P) and the anisotropy of the fluorescence emission (r), following polarized and non-polarized excitation, respectively (Steinbach et al 2009 Acta Histochem.111 316-25). This DP-LSM configuration, however, cannot simply be adopted to new generation microscopes with considerably more compact structures. As shown here, for an Olympus FV500, we designed an easy-to-install DP attachment to determine LB, LD, FDLD and r, in new-generation confocal microscopes, which, in principle, can be complemented with a P-imaging unit, but specifically to the brand and type of LSM.

  11. Hydro-meteorological functioning of the Eastern Andean Tropical Montane Cloud Forests: Insight from a paired catchment study in the Orinoco river basin highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Beatriz; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Ganzeveld, Laurens; Leemans, Rik

    2016-04-01

    Tropical forests regulate large scale precipitation patterns and catchment-scale streamflow, while tropical mountains influence runoff by orographic effects and snowmelt. Along tropical elevation gradients, these climate/ecosystem/hydrological interactions are specific and heterogeneous. These interactions are poorly understood and represented in hydro-meteorological monitoring networks and regional or global earth system models. A typical case are the South American Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCF), whose water balance is strongly driven by fog persistence. This also depends on local and up wind temperature and moisture, and changes in this balance alter the impacts of changes in land use and climate on hydrology. These TMCFs were until 2010 only investigated up to 350km from the coast. Continental TMCFs are largely ignored. This gap is covered by our study area, which is part of the Orinoco river basin highlands and located on the northern Eastern Andes at an altitudinal range of 1550 to 2300m a.s.l. The upwind part of our study area is dominated by lowland savannahs that are flooded seasonally. Because meteorological stations are absent in our study area, we first describe the spatial and seasonal meteorological variability and analyse the corresponding catchment hydrology. Our hydro-meteorological data set is collected at three gauged neighbouring catchments with contrasting TMCF/grassland cover from June 2013 to May 2014 and includes hourly solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, soil moisture and runoff measurements. We compare our results with recent TCMF studies in the eastern Andean highlands in the Amazon basin. The studied elevational range always shows wetter conditions at higher elevations. This indicates a positive relation between elevation and fog or rainfall persistence. Lower elevations are more seasonally variable. Soil moisture data indicate that TMCFs do not use persistently more water than grasslands

  12. The role of host factor LSm1-7 complex in dengue virus RNA replication%宿主蛋白LSm1-7复合体在登革病毒RNA复制中的作用研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董阳超; 雷迎峰; 丁天兵; 时莹; 潘鹭翔; 王晓霞; 张泽信; 徐志凯

    2013-01-01

    Objective To investigate the roles of host protein LSml-7 complex in DENV RNA replication. Methods mRNA was isolated from DENV infected HepG2 cells at different time point(2,24,36,48 h) of post-infection, and the level of DENV RNA and LSml RNA was analysed by RT-qPCR. HepG2 cells were transfected with specific siRNA for LSml and nontargeting siRNA and siNC respectively, followed by infection with DENV.The mRNA was isolated at 24 h p. i. and analyzed by RT-qPCR to determine the RNA level of DENV and LSml. Laser scanning confocal microscopy was performed to observe the localization of LSml protein and DENV dsRNA in DENV infected HepG2 cells. Results The levels of DENV RNA and LSml RNA were increased compared to 2 h p.i. during the course of DENV infection. siRNA-mediated silencing resulted in a specific 78.2% reduction of LSml RNA when using the nontargeting siNC as a negative control, and down-regulation of LSml resulted in a marked reduction of the DENV RNA level by 35.6%. LSml-7 complex distributed and colocalized with DENV dsRNA around nucleolous in the DENV infected HepG2 cells. Conclusion LSml-7 complex may act as the component of DENV replication machinery and is one of the positive regulators for DENV RNA replication.%目的 探讨LSm1-7复合体在登革病毒(DENV)RNA复制中的作用.方法 DENV感染HepG2细胞后,在不同时间点(2、24、36、48 h)收集细胞和提取总mRNA,实时定量PCR (RT-qPCR)分析LSm1表达水平;将LSm1的siRNA和非特异对照siRNA两次转染HepG2细胞后感染DENV-2,24h后收集细胞,提取总mRNA,RT-qPCR分析LSm1表达水平与病毒RNA表达水平;利用LSm1抗体与dsRNA抗体对DENV感染细胞进行免疫荧光染色,激光共聚焦分析LSm1与dsRNA共定位情况.结果 与2h比较,随着时间的推移,DENV-2 RNA和LSm1 RNA水平逐渐升高;与对照组siNC比较,siLSm1组LSm1 RNA水平明显降低,沉默效率达78.2%;与对照组siNC比较,siLSm1组DENV RNA含量降低35.6%;LSm1-7

  13. ISTSOS, SENSOR OBSERVATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM: A REAL CASE APPLICATION OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR FLOOD PROTECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cannata

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available istSOS (Istituto scienze della Terra Sensor Observation Service is an implementation of the Sensor Observation Service standard from Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC. The development of istSOS started in 2009 in order to provide a simple implementation of the Sensor Observation Service (SOS standard for the management, provision and integration of hydro-meteorological data collected in Canton Ticino (Southern Switzerland. istSOS is entirely written in Python and is based on reliable open source software like PostgreSQL/PostGIS and Apache/mod_wsgi. The authors during this presentation want to illustrate the latest software enhancements together with a real case in a production environment. Latest software enhancement includes the development of a RESTful service and of a Web-based graphical user interface that allows hydrologists a better interaction with measurements. This includes the ability of new services creation, addition of new sensors and relative metadata, visualization and manipulation of stored observations, registration of new measures and setting of system properties like observable properties and data quality codes. The study will show a real case application of the system for the provision of data to interregional partners and to a hydrological model for lake level forecasting and flooding hazard assessment. The hydrological model uses a combination of WPS (Web Processing Service and SOS for the generation of model input data. This system is linked with a dedicated geo-portal used by the civil protection for the management, alert and protection of population and assets of the Locarno area (Verbano Lake flooding. Practical considerations and technical issues will be presented and discussed.

  14. Forty years of hydrometeorological data from the Fernow experimental forest, West Virginia. Forest Service general technical report (Final)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adams, M.B.; Kochenderfer, J.N.; Wood, F.; Angradi, T.R.; Edwards, P.

    1994-03-01

    Hydrometeorological data have been collected on the Fernow Experimental Forest in West Virginia since 1951. The publication summarizes these data, describes their collection, and provides other information that characterizes the Fernow. The value and utility of long-term data sets are discussed.

  15. Large-scale Agroecosytem's Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events in the Missouri River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Arriola, F.; Smith, K.; Corzo, G.; Chacon, J.; Carrillo-Cruz, C.

    2015-12-01

    A major challenge for water, energy and food security relies on the capability of agroecosyststems and ecosystems to adapt to a changing climate and land use changes. The interdependency of these forcings, understood through our ability to monitor and model processes across scales, indicate the "depth" of their impact on agroecosystems and ecosystems, and consequently our ability to predict the system's ability to return to a "normal" state. We are particularly interested in explore two questions: (1) how hydrometeorological and climate extreme events (HCEs) affect sub-seasonal to interannual changes in evapotranspiration and soil moisture? And (2) how agroecosystems recover from the effect of such events. To address those questions we use the land surface hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer-Leaf Area Index (MODIS-LAI) over two time spans (1950-2013 using a seasonal fixed LAI cycle) and 2001-2013 (an 8-day MODIS-LAI). VIC is forced by daily/16th degree resolution precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, and wind speed. In this large-scale experiment, resiliency is defined by the capacity of a particular agroecosystem, represented by a grid cell's ET, SM, and LAI to return to a historical average. This broad, yet simplistic definition will contribute to identify the possible components and their scales involved in agroecosystems and ecosystems capacity to adapt to the incidence of HCEs and technologies used to intensify agriculture and diversify their use for food and energy production. Preliminary results show that dynamical changes in land use, tracked by MODIS data, require larger time spans to address properly the influence of technologic improvements in crop production as well as the competition for land for biofuel vs. food production. On the other hand, fixed seasonal changes in land use allow us just to identify hydrologic changes mainly due to climate variability.

  16. Family archives as a source of information about past hydrometeorological extremes in Southern Moravia (Czech Republic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, Kateřina

    2014-05-01

    Meteorological and hydrological extremes (hydrometeorological extremes - HMEs) cause great material damage or even loss of human lives in the present time, as well as it was in the past. For the study of their temporal and spatial variability in periods with only natural forcing factors in comparison with those combining also anthropogenic effects it is essential to have the longest possible series of HMEs. In the Czech Lands (recently the Czech Republic), systematic meteorological and hydrological observations started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. Therefore, in order to create long-term series of such extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information. There exist different types of documentary evidence used in historical climatology and hydrology, represented by various sources such as annals, chronicles, diaries, private letters, newspapers etc. Besides them, institutional documentary evidence (of economic and administrative character) has particular importance (e.g. taxation records). Documents in family archives represent further promising source of data related to HMEs. The documents kept by the most important lord families in Moravia (e.g. Liechtensteins, Dietrichsteins) are located in Moravian Land Archives in Brno. Besides data about family members, industrial and agricultural business, military questions, travelling and social events, they contain direct or indirect information about HMEs. It concerns descriptions of catastrophic phenomena on the particular demesne (mainly with respect to damage) as well as correspondence related to tax reductions (i.e. they can overlap with taxation records of particular estates). This contribution shows the potential of family archives as a source of information about HMEs, up to now only rarely used, which may extend our knowledge about them. Several examples of such documents are presented. The study is a part of the research project "Hydrometeorological extremes in Southern

  17. Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

    2013-05-01

    Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio

  18. A land surface model combined with a crop growth model for paddy rice (MATCRO-Rice v. 1) - Part 1: Model description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masutomi, Yuji; Ono, Keisuke; Mano, Masayoshi; Maruyama, Atsushi; Miyata, Akira

    2016-11-01

    Crop growth and agricultural management can affect climate at various spatial and temporal scales through the exchange of heat, water, and gases between land and atmosphere. Therefore, simulation of fluxes for heat, water, and gases from agricultural land is important for climate simulations. A land surface model (LSM) combined with a crop growth model (CGM), called an LSM-CGM combined model, is a useful tool for simulating these fluxes from agricultural land. Therefore, we developed a new LSM-CGM combined model for paddy rice fields, the MATCRO-Rice model. The main objective of this paper is to present the full description of MATCRO-Rice. The most important feature of MATCRO-Rice is that it can consistently simulate latent and sensible heat fluxes, net carbon uptake by crop, and crop yield by exchanging variables between the LSM and CGM. This feature enables us to apply the model to a wide range of integrated issues.

  19. Underground low flux neutron background measurements in LSM using a large volume (1m3) spherical proportional counter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savvidis, I.; Giomataris, I.; Bougamont, E.; Irastorza, I.; Aune, S.; Chapelier, M.; Charvin, P. H.; Colas, P.; Derre, J.; Ferrer, E.; Gerbier, G.; Gros, M.; Mangier, P.; Navick, X. F.; Salin, P.; Vergados, J. D.; Zampalo, M.

    2010-01-01

    A large volume (1m3) spherical proportional counter has been developed at CEA/Saclay, for low flux neutron measurements. The high voltage is applied to a small sphere 15mm in diameter, located in the center of the counter and the wall of the counter is grounded. Neutrons can be measured successfully, with high sensitivity, using 3He gas in the detector. The proton and tritium energy deposition in the drift gaseous volume, from the reaction 3He(n,p)3H, can provide the neutron spectra from thermal neutrons up to several MeV. The detector has been installed in the underground laboratory in Modane (LSM) to measure the neutron background. The sphere has been has been filled with gas mixture of Ar + 2% CH4 +3gr He-3, at 275 mbar. The thermal neutron peak is well separated from the cosmic ray and gamma background, permitting of neutron flux calculation. Other potential applications requiring large volume of about 10 m in radius are described in detail in reference

  20. Three-dimensional structure of CA1 pyramidal cells in rat hippocampus——Optical recording of LSM and computer simulation of fractal structure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冯春华; 刘力; 刘守忠; 宁红; 孙海坚; 郭爱克

    1995-01-01

    The optical recording of three-dimensional(3-D)reconstruction of CA1 pyramidal cells wasderived from the studies on the CA1 region of the hippocampus in adult male Wistar rats.The recordingwas produced by the Confocal Laser Scan Microscope(LSM-10).The attemption was to outline themorphological neural network of CA1 pyramidal cells organization,following the trail of axo-dendritic connec-tions in 3-D spatial distributions among neurons.The fractal structure of neurons with their dendritic andaxonal trees using fractal algorithm was noticed,and 2—18 simulated cells were obtained using PC-486 comput-er.The simulational cells are similar in morphology to the natural CA1 hippocampal pyramidal cells.There-fore,the exploitation of an advanced neurohistological research technique combining optical recording of theLSM-10 and computer simulation of fractal structure can provide the quantitative fractal structural basis forchaosic dynamics of brain.

  1. Inclusion of potential vorticity uncertainties into a hydrometeorological forecasting chain: application to a medium size basin of Mediterranean Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Amengual

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The improvement of the short- and mid-range numerical runoff forecasts over the flood-prone Spanish Mediterranean area is a challenging issue. This work analyses four intense precipitation events which produced floods of different magnitude over the Llobregat river basin, a medium size catchment located in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain. One of them was a devasting flash flood – known as the "Montserrat" event – which produced 5 fatalities and material losses estimated at about 65 million euros. The characterization of the Llobregat basin's hydrological response to these floods is first assessed by using rain-gauge data and the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS runoff model. In second place, the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5 is nested within the ECMWF large-scale forecast fields in a set of 54 h period simulations to provide quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs for each hydrometeorological episode. The hydrological model is forced with these QPFs to evaluate the reliability of the resulting discharge forecasts, while an ensemble prediction system (EPS based on perturbed atmospheric initial and boundary conditions has been designed to test the value of a probabilistic strategy versus the previous deterministic approach. Specifically, a Potential Vorticity (PV Inversion technique has been used to perturb the MM5 model initial and boundary states (i.e. ECMWF forecast fields. For that purpose, a PV error climatology has been previously derived in order to introduce realistic PV perturbations in the EPS. Results show the benefits of using a probabilistic approach in those cases where the deterministic QPF presents significant deficiencies over the Llobregat river basin in terms of the rainfall amounts, timing and localization. These deficiences in precipitation fields have a major impact on flood forecasts. Our ensemble strategy has been

  2. Inclusion of potential vorticity uncertainties into a hydrometeorological forecasting chain: application to a medium size basin of Mediterranean Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Amengual

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The improvement of the short- and mid-range numerical runoff forecasts over the flood-prone Spanish Mediterranean area is a challenging issue. This work analyses four intense precipitation events which produced floods of different magnitude over the Llobregat river basin, a medium size catchment located in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain. One of them was a devasting flash flood – known as the "Montserrat" event – which produced 5 fatalities and material losses estimated at about 65 million euros. The characterization of the Llobregat basin's hydrological response to these floods is first assessed by using rain-gauge data and the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS runoff model. In second place, the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5 is nested within the ECMWF large-scale forecast fields in a set of 54 h period simulations to provide quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs for each hydrometeorological episode. The hydrological model is forced with these QPFs to evaluate the reliability of the resulting discharge forecasts, while an ensemble prediction system (EPS based on perturbed atmospheric initial and boundary conditions has been designed to test the value of a probabilistic strategy versus the previous deterministic approach. Specifically, a Potential Vorticity (PV Inversion technique has been used to perturb the MM5 model initial and boundary states (i.e. ECMWF forecast fields. For that purpose, a PV error climatology has been previously derived in order to introduce realistic PV perturbations in the EPS. Results show the benefits of using a probabilistic approach in those cases where the deterministic QPF presents significant deficiencies over the Llobregat river basin in terms of the rainfall amounts, timing and localization. These deficiences in precipitation fields have a major impact on flood forecasts. Our ensemble strategy has been

  3. Hydrometeorological observations from the rain-to-snow transition zone: a dataset from the Johnston Draw catchment, Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho, USA

    OpenAIRE

    Enslin, Clarissa L.; Godsey, Sarah E.; Marks, Danny; Kormos, Patrick R.; Seyfried, Mark S.; McNamara, James P; Link, Timothy E.

    2016-01-01

    Detailed hydrometeorological data from the rain-to-snow transition zone in mountain regions are limited. As the climate warms, the transition from rain to snow is moving to higher elevations, and these changes are altering the timing of down slope water delivery. To understand how these changes impact hydrological and biological processes in this climatologically sensitive region, detailed observations from the rain-to-snow transition zone are required. We present a complete hydrometeorologic...

  4. Impacts of extreme hydro-meteorological conditions on ecosystem functioning and productivity patterns across Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huete, Alfredo; Ma, Xuanlong; Xie, Zunyi; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo

    2016-04-01

    As Earth's climate continues to change, the frequency and intensity of warm droughts, extreme precipitation patterns, and heat waves will alter in potentially different ways, ecosystem structure and functioning with major impacts on carbon and water balance, and food security. The extreme hydro-meteorological conditions that are presently impacting Australia approach those anticipated with future climate change and thus provide unique opportunities to study ecological sensitivity and functional responses and cross-biome productivity changes using contemporary, in-situ and satellite observational datasets. Here, we combined satellite vegetation index products from MODIS and AVHRR, total water storage (TWS) from the GRACE twin satellites, precipitation data and in-situ tower flux measurements to characterise ecosystem sensitivity, and analyse climate change impacts on ecosystem productivity and resilience. Recent advances in eddy covariance tower flux measurements and spatially contiguous remote sensing data provide innovative and promising capabilities to extend ecosystem functioning and productivity studies from local to regional and continental scales. In general, Australia exhibited ecosystem-level shifts in water demands with water availability across wet and dry years, and over all biomes analysed (arid grasslands to humid forests). In the drier years, higher ecosystem water use efficiencies (WUEe) enabled plants to maintain higher levels of productivity than would otherwise be expected for the lower amounts of rainfall and available water. Further, there were unique, functional class-specific coping strategies to drought and water availability. With prolonged warm drought conditions, biomes became increasingly water-limited and WUEe continued to increase until reaching a 'dry edge' threshold, a cross biome maximum WUEe, that cannot be sustained with further reductions in water availability and could potentially break down ecosystem resilience and induce

  5. Globus-based Services for the Hydro-Meteorology Scientific Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muntean, Ioan-Lucian; Hofmann, Matthias; Heller, Helmut

    2013-04-01

    Scientific workflows in hydro-meteorology involve multiple applications with varying computational requirements. These are best met by different e-Infrastructures in Europe: sequential codes with modest requirements are well suited to resources offered in EGI (European Grid Infrastructure) while parallelized, computationally demanding codes have to run on PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) resources. Access to major Distributed Computing Infrastructures (DCI) in Europe such as PRACE and EGI is provided by means of grid middleware like Globus, which is available in both eInfrastructures and thus can bridge between them. The consortium "Initiative for Globus in Europe" (IGE - http://www.ige-project.eu) and its community body EGCF (http://www.egcf.eu) act as European provider for Globus technology, offering the resource providers and scientific user communities professional services such as Globus software provisioning and certification, training and documentation, and community software adaptation to Globus technology. This presentation will cover the following two parts: an outline of the IGE/EGCF services for the DRIHM community and an introduction to data handling with Globus Online, with emphasis on the achievements to date. The set of Globus-centered services of potential interest to the hydro-meteorology community have been identified to be: Globus support for: data access and handling: GridFTP, Globus Online, Globus Connect, Globus Storage; computing: GRAM for submission of parallel jobs to PRACE or of high-throughput jobs to EGI; accounting: tracking the usage records with GridSAFE. Infrastructure and workflow integration support such as: setup of virtual organizations for DRIHM community; access to EGI and PRACE infrastructures via Globus-based tools; investigation of workflow interoperability technologies (such as SHIWA). Furthermore, IGE successfully provides access to test bed resources where developers of the DRIHM community can port

  6. Identifying hydro-meteorological events from precipitation extremes indices and other sources over northern Namibia, Cuvelai Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frans C. Persendt

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, more than 40% of all natural hazards and about half of all deaths are the result of flood disasters. In northern Namibia flood disasters have increased dramatically over the past half-century, along with associated economic losses and fatalities. There is a growing concern to identify these extreme precipitation events that result in many hydro-meteorological disasters. This study presents an up to date and broad analysis of the trends of hydrometeorological events using extreme daily precipitation indices, daily precipitation data from the Grootfontein rainfall station (1917–present, regionally averaged climatologies from the gauged gridded Climate Research Unit (CRU product, archived disasters by global disaster databases, published disaster events in literature as well as events listed by Mendelsohn, Jarvis and Robertson (2013 for the data-sparse Cuvelai river basin (CRB. The listed events that have many missing data gaps were used to reference and validate results obtained from other sources in this study. A suite of ten climate change extreme precipitation indices derived from daily precipitation data (Grootfontein rainfall station, were calculated and analysed. The results in this study highlighted years that had major hydro-meteorological events during periods where no data are available. Furthermore, the results underlined decrease in both the annual precipitation as well as the annual total wet days of precipitation, whilst it found increases in the longest annual dry spell indicating more extreme dry seasons. These findings can help to improve flood risk management policies by providing timely information on historic hydro-meteorological hazard events that are essential for early warning and forecasting.

  7. Impact of land cover data on the simulation of urban heat island for Berlin using WRF coupled with bulk approach of Noah-LSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huidong; Wolter, Michael; Wang, Xun; Sodoudi, Sahar

    2017-09-01

    Urban-rural difference of land cover is the key determinant of urban heat island (UHI). In order to evaluate the impact of land cover data on the simulation of UHI, a comparative study between up-to-date CORINE land cover (CLC) and Urban Atlas (UA) with fine resolution (100 and 10 m) and old US Geological Survey (USGS) data with coarse resolution (30 s) was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with bulk approach of Noah-LSM for Berlin. The comparison between old data and new data partly reveals the effect of urbanization on UHI and the historical evolution of UHI, while the comparison between different resolution data reveals the impact of resolution of land cover on the simulation of UHI. Given the high heterogeneity of urban surface and the fine-resolution land cover data, the mosaic approach was implemented in this study to calculate the sub-grid variability in land cover compositions. Results showed that the simulations using UA and CLC data perform better than that using USGS data for both air and land surface temperatures. USGS-based simulation underestimates the temperature, especially in rural areas. The longitudinal variations of both temperature and land surface temperature show good agreement with urban fraction for all the three simulations. To better study the comprehensive characteristic of UHI over Berlin, the UHI curves (UHIC) are developed for all the three simulations based on the relationship between temperature and urban fraction. CLC- and UA-based simulations show smoother UHICs than USGS-based simulation. The simulation with old USGS data obviously underestimates the extent of UHI, while the up-to-date CLC and UA data better reflect the real urbanization and simulate the spatial distribution of UHI more accurately. However, the intensity of UHI simulated by CLC and UA data is not higher than that simulated by USGS data. The simulated air temperature is not dominated by the land cover as much as the land

  8. Pre- and post-processing of hydro-meteorological ensembles for the Norwegian flood forecasting system in 145 basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahr Hegdahl, Trine; Steinsland, Ingelin; Merete Tallaksen, Lena; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Probabilistic flood forecasting has an added value for decision making. The Norwegian flood forecasting service is based on a flood forecasting model that run for 145 basins. Covering all of Norway the basins differ in both size and hydrological regime. Currently the flood forecasting is based on deterministic meteorological forecasts, and an auto-regressive procedure is used to achieve probabilistic forecasts. An alternative approach is to use meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts to quantify the uncertainty in forecasted streamflow. The hydrological ensembles are based on forcing a hydrological model with meteorological ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature. However, the ensembles of precipitation are often biased and the spread is too small, especially for the shortest lead times, i.e. they are not calibrated. These properties will, to some extent, propagate to hydrological ensembles, that most likely will be uncalibrated as well. Pre- and post-processing methods are commonly used to obtain calibrated meteorological and hydrological ensembles respectively. Quantitative studies showing the effect of the combined processing of the meteorological (pre-processing) and the hydrological (post-processing) ensembles are however few. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of pre- and post-processing on the skill of streamflow predictions, and we will especially investigate if the forecasting skill depends on lead-time, basin size and hydrological regime. This aim is achieved by applying the 51 medium-range ensemble forecast of precipitation and temperature provided by the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). These ensembles are used as input to the operational Norwegian flood forecasting model, both raw and pre-processed. Precipitation ensembles are calibrated using a zero-adjusted gamma distribution. Temperature ensembles are calibrated using a Gaussian distribution and altitude corrected by a constant gradient

  9. Stochastic analysis and simulation of hydrometeorological processes for optimizing hybrid renewable energy systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsekouras, Georgios; Ioannou, Christos; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2013-04-01

    The drawbacks of conventional energy sources including their negative environmental impacts emphasize the need to integrate renewable energy sources into energy balance. However, the renewable sources strongly depend on time varying and uncertain hydrometeorological processes, including wind speed, sunshine duration and solar radiation. To study the design and management of hybrid energy systems we investigate the stochastic properties of these natural processes, including possible long-term persistence. We use wind speed and sunshine duration time series retrieved from a European database of daily records and we estimate representative values of the Hurst coefficient for both variables. We conduct simultaneous generation of synthetic time series of wind speed and sunshine duration, on yearly, monthly and daily scale. To this we use the Castalia software system which performs multivariate stochastic simulation. Using these time series as input, we perform stochastic simulation of an autonomous hypothetical hybrid renewable energy system and optimize its performance using genetic algorithms. For the system design we optimize the sizing of the system in order to satisfy the energy demand with high reliability also minimizing the cost. While the simulation scale is the daily, a simple method allows utilizing the subdaily distribution of the produced wind power. Various scenarios are assumed in order to examine the influence of input parameters, such as the Hurst coefficient, and design parameters such as the photovoltaic panel angle.

  10. In situ characterization of delamination and crack growth of a CGO–LSM multi-layer ceramic sample investigated by X-ray tomographic microscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Rasmus; Esposito, Vincenzo; Lauridsen, Erik Mejdal;

    2014-01-01

    The densification, delamination and crack growth behavior in a Ce0.9Gd0.1O1.95 (CGO) and (La0.85Sr0.15)0.9MnO3 (LSM) multi-layer ceramic sample was studied using in situ X-ray tomographic microscopy (microtomography) to investigate the critical dynamics of crack propagation and delamination...... in a multilayered sample. Naturally occurring defects, caused by the sample preparation process, are shown not to be critical in sample degradation. Instead defects are nucleated during the debinding step. Crack growth is significantly faster along the material layers than perpendicular to them, and crack growth...

  11. Basin-scale runoff prediction: An Ensemble Kalman Filter framework based on global hydrometeorological data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunstmann, Harald; Lorenz, Christof; Tourian, Mohammad; Devaraju, Balaji; Sneeuw, Nico

    2016-04-01

    In order to cope with the steady decline of the number of in situ gauges worldwide, there is a growing need for alternative methods to estimate runoff. We present an Ensemble Kalman Filter based approach that allows us to conclude on runoff for poorly or irregularly gauged basins. The approach focuses on the application of publicly available global hydrometeorological data sets for precipitation (GPCC, GPCP, CRU, UDEL), evapotranspiration (MODIS, FLUXNET, GLEAM, ERA interim, GLDAS), and water storage changes (GRACE, WGHM, GLDAS, MERRA LAND). Furthermore, runoff data from the GRDC and satellite altimetry derived estimates are used. We follow a least squares prediction that exploits the joint temporal and spatial auto- and cross-covariance structures of precipitation, evapotranspiration, water storage changes and runoff. We further consider time-dependent uncertainty estimates derived from all data sets. Our in-depth analysis comprises of 29 large river basins of different climate regions, with which runoff is predicted for a subset of 16 basins. Six configurations are analyzed: the Ensemble Kalman Filter (Smoother) and the hard (soft) Constrained Ensemble Kalman Filter (Smoother). Comparing the predictions to observed monthly runoff shows correlations larger than 0.5, percentage biases lower than ± 20%, and NSE-values larger than 0.5. A modified NSE-metric, stressing the difference to the mean annual cycle, shows an improvement of runoff predictions for 14 of the 16 basins. The proposed method is able to provide runoff estimates for nearly 100 poorly gauged basins covering an area of more than 11,500,000 km2 with a freshwater discharge, in volume, of more than 125,000 m3/s.

  12. Dominant Factors Controlling the Hydrometeorology of Northern California: Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers and Sierra Barrier Jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiman, P. J.; Ralph, F. M.; Hughes, M.; Sukovich, E.; Kingsmill, D. E.; Zamora, R. J.; Moore, B. J.

    2014-12-01

    Northern California's Sierra Nevada and Shasta-Trinity mountains are key to the state's water supply and can contribute to major floods in the Central Valley (CV). NOAA's Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) program and the CalWater experiment have discovered much about how landfalling atmospheric rivers (AR) and Sierra Barrier Jets (SBJ) modulate orographic precipitation in that region. This presentation provides a review of recent findings, both from case-study and compositing perspectives. Wind-profiler and global-positioning-system (GPS) observations are used with soil moisture probes, stream gauges, and a regional reanalysis dataset. Key results include: Inland-directed ARs override a ~1-km-deep, Sierra-parallel SBJ located above the CV and the western slope of the Sierra. Above the developing SBJ, strengthening southwesterly flow marks the AR. The moistening SBJ reaches maximum intensity during the strongest AR flow aloft, at which time the core of the AR-parallel vapor transport slopes over the SBJ and intersects the Sierra. The SBJ then weakens with the initial cold-frontal passage aloft. A statistical analysis of orographic forcing reveals that both the AR and SBJ are crucial in determining the distribution of precipitation in the northern Sierra and Shasta-Trinity regions due to orographic precipitation enhancement. An open question remains regarding the transport of water vapor near the northern end of the CV. Namely, a portion of the AR-modulated SBJ flow may be transported through a prominent gap in the terrain between Mt. Lassen and Mt. Shasta, near the town of Burney. Recent analyses indicate that this gap allows AR water vapor to penetrate into the western interior (e.g., to Idaho) and thus contribute to heavy precipitation events far inland. The CalWater-2 program of field campaigns has identified diagnosis of the transport through this gap and its impact on northern California precipitation as a priority for future data collection and analysis.

  13. Hydro-meteorological risk reduction through land restoration in Rangárvellir, Iceland - an overview of the HydroResilience project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, David C.; Pétursdóttir, Þórunn; Halldórsson, Guðmundur

    2017-04-01

    Ecosystems that are in equilibrium provide vital resources to local inhabitants, including protection from naturally occurring disasters. Natural vegetation cover has been optimized over many years to retain a maximum of rainfall runoff by increasing the field capacity (FC) of the soil cover, securing water availability during droughts and reducing the flood risk during heavy precipitation events. In this presentation we will present the HydroResilience project, which will assess the effects of ecosystem restoration on the runoff dynamics of rainfall water in Rangárvellir, a restoration area in southern Iceland. The Rangárvellir area presents ideal conditions for such investigations. Dramatic deforestation during the last millennium and year round livestock grazing along with devastating ash depositions during volcanic eruptions and a harsh sub-polar oceanic climate have led to severe degradation in Rangárvellir. Since the beginning of the 20th century diverse restoration measures have been implemented making Rangárvellir an ideal case study to investigate the effects of restoration on hydro-meteorological risk reduction. In this project we will assess and quantify the evolution of water resources in Rangárvellir by assessing the runoff dynamics in the main rivers of Rangárvellir under four main scenarios: i) present conditions, ii) degraded conditions as was the case 100 years ago, iii) under hypothetical fully restored ecosystems and, finally, iv) under conditions of a scenario developed in collaboration with local stakeholder groups to optimize socio-ecological benefits. For this purpose the dynamics of the relevant hydrological processes in the area (incl. river runoff, ground water table, snow cover duration, and soil moisture dynamics) will be reconstructed using hydrological models to run the above mentioned scenarios. The scientific findings and conclusion of this project will generate valuable insights on the effects of land restoration on hydro-meteorological

  14. Exploring probabilistic tools for the development of a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of hydro-meteorological hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumpano, V.; Hussin, H. Y.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    Mass-movements and floods are hydro-meteorological hazards that can have catastrophic effects on communities living in mountainous areas prone to these disastrous events. Environmental, climate and socio-economic changes are expected to affect the tempo-spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe. These changes and their effects on the occurrence of future hazards need to be analyzed and modeled using probabilistic hazard and risk assessment methods in order to assist stakeholders in disaster management strategies and policy making. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using probabilistic methods can further calculate damage and losses to multi-hazards and determine the uncertainties related to all the probabilistic components of the hazard and the vulnerability of the elements at risk. Therefore, in order to develop an effective platform that can quantitatively calculate the risk of mass-movements and floods in several European test sites, an extensive inventory and analysis has been carried out of the available tools and software related to the probabilistic risk assessment of single and multi-hazards. The tools have been reviewed based on whether they are open source and freely available, their required input data, the availability and type of hazard and vulnerability modules, transparency of methods used, their validation and calibration techniques, the inclusion of uncertainties and their state of the art. The analysis also specially focused on the applicability of the tools to European study areas. The findings showed that assumptions and simplifications are made when assessing and quantifying the hazards. The interaction between multiple hazards, like cascading effects are not assessed in most tools and some consider the hazard and vulnerability as qualitative components, rather than quantitative ones. This analysis of hazard and risk assessment tools and software will give future developers and experts a better overview of

  15. Hydrometeorological extremes derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, 1751–1900 AD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Valášek

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period 1751–1900 AD. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage are documented for 1751–1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types include hailstorm (25.7%, torrential rain (21.7%, flood (21.0%, followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890 and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847. Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816–1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961–2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May–August and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance. Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  16. Remotely Sensed Hydrometeorological and Agrometeorological Drought Risk Identification for Sustainable Agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, Nicolas R.; Blanta, Anna; Spyropoulos, Nicos

    2013-04-01

    Drought is considered as one of the major environmental hazards with significant impacts to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper addresses drought as a hazard within the risk management framework. Indeed, hazards may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Besides, risk management consists of risk assessment and feedback of the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. In order to ensure sustainability in agricultural production a better understanding of the natural disasters, in particular droughts, that impact agriculture is essential. Droughts may result in environmental degradation of an area, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture, because it directly magnifies the risk of natural disasters. This paper deals with drought risk identification, which involves hazard quantification, event monitoring including early warning systems and statistical inference. For drought quantification the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) combined with Vegetation Health Index (VHI) is employed. RDI is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, and in particular precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which has been recently modified to incorporate monthly satellite (NOAA/AVHAA) data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). VHI is based on NDVI. The study area is Thessaly in central Greece, which is one of the major agricultural areas of the country occasionally facing droughts. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed RID and VHI images and several drought features are extracted such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of the above mentioned features. In particular, two second-order polynomials

  17. Towards a cross-platform software framework to support end-to-end hydrometeorological sensor network deployment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celicourt, P.; Sam, R.; Piasecki, M.

    2016-12-01

    Global phenomena such as climate change and large scale environmental degradation require the collection of accurate environmental data at detailed spatial and temporal scales from which knowledge and actionable insights can be derived using data science methods. Despite significant advances in sensor network technologies, sensors and sensor network deployment remains a labor-intensive, time consuming, cumbersome and expensive task. These factors demonstrate why environmental data collection remains a challenge especially in developing countries where technical infrastructure, expertise and pecuniary resources are scarce. In addition, they also demonstrate the reason why dense and long-term environmental data collection has been historically quite difficult. Moreover, hydrometeorological data collection efforts usually overlook the (critically important) inclusion of a standards-based system for storing, managing, organizing, indexing, documenting and sharing sensor data. We are developing a cross-platform software framework using the Python programming language that will allow us to develop a low cost end-to-end (from sensor to publication) system for hydrometeorological conditions monitoring. The software framework contains provision for sensor, sensor platforms, calibration and network protocols description, sensor programming, data storage, data publication and visualization and more importantly data retrieval in a desired unit system. It is being tested on the Raspberry Pi microcomputer as end node and a laptop PC as the base station in a wireless setting.

  18. Effect of Co3O4 and CeO2 Infiltration on the Activity of a LSM15/GDC10 Highly Porous Electrochemical Reactor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ippolito, Davide; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2014-01-01

    matter, which lead to the formation of ozone in urban and regional areas [1]. The electrocatalytic activity of a porous electrochemical reactor, made of La0.85Sr0.15MnO3±δ (LSM) as electrode and Ce0.9Gd0.1O1.95 (GDC) as electrolyte, was studied for the electrochemical oxidation of propene (C3H6), a major....... The effect of the infiltration on the electrochemical properties and catalytic activity of the reactor was investigated by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and gas analysis. Figure 1 shows the SEM cross-section micrograph of the electrochemical reactor made of 11 alternating layers of electrode...

  19. Effect of Co3O4 and CeO2 Infiltration on the Activity of a LSM15/GDC10 Highly Porous Electrochemical Reactor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ippolito, Davide; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2014-01-01

    The reduction of air pollution has become an international concern over the last ten years because of increases in emissions from mobile and stationary sources. Among these sources, volatile organic compounds (VOC) represent a serious environmental problem, together with NOx, SOx and particulate....... The effect of the infiltration on the electrochemical properties and catalytic activity of the reactor was investigated by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and gas analysis. Figure 1 shows the SEM cross-section micrograph of the electrochemical reactor made of 11 alternating layers of electrode...... (LSM) and electrolyte (GDC). Figure 2 shows the Nyquist plot of the impedance spectra of Co3O4 infiltrated backbone recorded at OCP with 10% O2 and 10% O2 + 1000 ppm C3H6, 2 L/h, 400 °C. [1] R. Atkinson, Atmospheric Chemistry of VOCs and NOx, Atmos Environ. 34 (2000) 2063; [Formula]...

  20. LSM en la adquisición de cantidad de magnitud: masa y longitud. Jóvenes [16-21] con audición diferenciada

    OpenAIRE

    Garnica, Ignacio; Astorga, Mónica; Barojas, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Se presentan resultados de la fase indagatoria de la investigación en curso que orienta sus preguntas a identificar la naturaleza de la Lengua de Señas Mexicana (LSM) en su sentido de uso en situación de adquisición de la noción de cantidad de magnitud: masa y longitud. La investigación articula tres aspectos: enseñanza, indagación e investigación en condiciones del proceso educación básica de nueve jóvenes Sordos (16-21) en una ONG bajo la figura de acuerdo académico con el DME del Cinvestav...

  1. Hydrometeorological extremes at the Veselí nad Moravou estate (Czech Republic) in the period 1794-1850 derived from documentary evidence of the economic character

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chromá, Kateřina

    2010-05-01

    Hydrometeorological extremes influenced always human activities (agriculture, forestry, water management) and caused losses of human lives and great material damage. Systematic meteorological and hydrological observations in the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) started generally in the latter half of the 19th century. In order to create long-term series of hydrometeorological extremes, it is necessary to search for other sources of information for their study before 1850. Such direct and indirect information about hydrometeorological extremes is included in documentary evidence (e.g. chronicles, memoirs, diaries, early visual weather observations, newspapers, economic sources etc.). Documentary evidence of economic character belongs to the most important sources, especially documents related to taxation records. Damage to agricultural crops on the fields or damage to hay on meadows due to the hydrological and meteorological phenomena has been a good reason for the abatement of tax duty. Based on the official correspondence of the estate of Veselí nad Moravou (southern Moravia), archival information about taxation from the Moravian Land Archives in Brno was excerpted. Based on it, 46 hydrometeorological extremes which occurred between the years 1794 and 1850 were selected and further analysed. Because of fields and meadows of the above estate were located along the Morava River, reports of damage due to floods were the most frequent, followed by damage due to torrential rains and hailstorms.

  2. 基于LSM分段拟合技术的喷墨输出反馈控制研究%Study of the Inkjet Output's Feedback Control Based on the LSM Piece Wise Curve-fitting Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于惠; 刘真

    2011-01-01

    各单色通道保持线性输出是喷墨打印机线性化校正的前提,以LSM(最小二乘法)的不足为启示,分析了LSM分段拟合技术的原理及特点,进而提出了针对图像的不同色调采用LSM分段拟合技术。实验分别采用LSM分段拟合技术和普通LSM拟合技术,拟合了喷墨打印机的反补偿曲线,再打印出反馈的应输入控制信息,最终评价比较了2种曲线模型下的输出样稿效果。结果表明:最小二乘法分段曲线拟合技术比普通最小二乘拟合技术更适用于喷墨输出反馈控制过程中。%Precise inking of every channel is the presupposition of inkjet printers' linearization. The principle and feature of LSM piece wise curve-fitting technology was analyzed. Pictures" different tones were treated with LSM piece wise Printing feedback controlling curve was fitted with LSM piece wise curve-fitting technology and common LSM curve-fitting technology. Sample sheets printed by the two control technologies were evaluated and compared. The results showed that LSM Piece Wise method is more suitable for the inkier printers' feed back control.

  3. Chronological changes in canopy hydrometeorological dynamics may aid invasion of a globally invasive species (Ailanthus altissima Mill. tree of heaven)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Stan, J. T., II; Sadeghi, S. M. M.; Pypker, T. G.; Friesen, J.

    2016-12-01

    We examined the effect of a globally-invasive species, Ailanthus altissima, on canopy hydrometeorological processes. Throughfall (TF), stemflow (SF) and interception loss (I) were measured in a chronosequence of three A. altissima stands (planted 1975, 1985, 1995). Canopy structural and ecohydrological parameters varied with age: woody area index (WAI), ratio of wet canopy evaporation and rainfall rates, and stem drainage coefficient increased; while leaf area index (LAI), canopy water storage, and gap fraction declined. This corresponded to increased SF and decreased TF across annual, seasonal, and inter-storm scales. Changes in canopy hydrologic flow paths (TF v. SF) may be advantageous to invasive species as the promotion of SF with canopy age may increase water supply to the roots and help distribute allelopathic chemicals through the soil. Further research is needed on the correlation between canopy architecture of A. altissima invasion and the distribution of water and chemicals to soils.

  4. Integrating Local Experiential and Hydrometeorological Data to Understand Knowledge Uncertainties and to Build Resilience to Flooding in Two Puerto Rican Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, M.; Nytch, C. J.; Branoff, B.

    2016-12-01

    Socio-hydrological studies that explore feedbacks between social and biophysical processes related to flood risk can help managers identify strategies that increase a community's freshwater security. However, knowledge uncertainty due to coarse spatio-temporal coverage of hydrological monitoring data, missing riverine discharge and precipitation records, assumptions of flood risk models, and effects of urbanization, can limit the ability of these studies to isolate hydrological responses to social drivers of flooding and a changing climate. Local experiential knowledge can provide much needed information about 1) actual flood spatio-temporal patterns, 2) human impacts and perceptions of flood events, and 3) mechanisms to validate flood risk studies and understand key social elements of the system. We addressed these knowledge gaps by comparing the location and timing of flood events described in resident interviews and resident drawn maps (total = 97) from two San Juan communities with NOAA and USGS precipitation and riverine discharge data archives, and FEMA flood maps. Analyses of five focal flood events revealed 1) riverine monitoring data failed to record a major flood event caused by localized blockage of the river, 2) residents did not mention multiple extreme riverine discharge events, 3) resident and FEMA flood maps matched closely but resident maps provided finer spatial information about frequency of flooding, and 4) only a small percentage of residents remembered the dates of flood events. Local knowledge provided valuable social data about flood impacts on human economic and physical/psychological wellbeing, perceptions about factors causing flooding, and what residents use as sources of flood information. A simple mechanism or tool for residents to record their flood experiences in real-time will address the uncertainties in local knowledge and improve social memory. The integration of local experiential knowledge with simulated and empirical hydro-meteorological

  5. P-body components LSM1, GW182, DDX3, DDX6 and XRN1 are recruited to WNV replication sites and positively regulate viral replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahar, Harendra S; Chen, Shuiping; Manjunath, N

    2013-02-05

    In mammalian cells, proteins involved in mRNA silencing and degradation localize to discrete cytoplasmic foci called processing or P-bodies. Here we show that microscopically visible P-bodies are greatly diminished following West Nile viral infection, but the component proteins are not depleted. On the other hand, many P-body components including LSM1, GW182, DDX3, DDX6 and XRN1, but not others like DCP1a and EDC4 are recruited to the viral replication sites, as evidenced by their colocalization at perinuclear region with viral NS3. Kinetic studies suggest that the component proteins are first released from P-bodies in response to WNV infection within 12 h post-infection, followed by recruitment to the viral replication sites by 24-36 h post-infection. Silencing of the recruited proteins individually with siRNA interfered with viral replication to varying extents suggesting that the recruited proteins are required for efficient viral replication. Thus, the P-body proteins might provide novel drug targets for inhibiting viral infection.

  6. Evaluation of the SAFRAN-ISBA-RAPID hydrometeorological chain on a mountainous catchment in a semi-arid region. Case of the Rheraya (Marrakech, Morocco)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szczypta, Camille; Gascoin, Simon; Habets, Florence; Saaidi, Amina; Berjamy, Brahim; Marchane, Ahmed; Boulet, Gilles; Hanich, Lahoucine; Jarlan, Lionel

    2015-04-01

    The water content of snow pack is an important resource for many watershed in semi-arid areas where downstream plains are dominated by irrigated agriculture. As part of the ANR Amethyst, this work is to develop, adapt and evaluate a hydro-meteorological forecasting chain for quantifying streamflows at the outlet of a mountainous watershed (Rheraya wadi, Marrakech region, Morocco), a pilot basin instrumented since 2003 as part of SudMed project. Two sets of atmospheric forcing were used: (1) The first was generated by spatializing meteorological data observed on 6 stations (Asni, Aremdt, Tachedert, Oukaimeden, Imskerbour and Neltner) using the semi-physical module Micromet (Liston and Elder, 2006) on the hydrological period September 2003 - August 2012; (2) the second is provided by the SAFRAN re-analysis, implemented by the Metoffice of Morocco (Casablanca, Morocco), during the period August 2004 - July 2008. These two sets were then used as inputs for the ISBA surface model, within the modeling platform SURFEX. Finally, runoff and drainage simulations derived from ISBA were forced into the hydrological model RAPID to predict streamflows. The flows predictions and the snow covered area (SCA) were compared respectively to the observations available for the 2003-2009 period and to the daily MODIS products of SCA. Despite time unsystematic lags and low biases on flow values, the initial results are encouraging due to topographical and hydro-complexity of the studied area. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the SCA for the "Micromet" run and to over-estimate for the "Safran" run, SCA is well reproduced with a determination coefficient of r²=0.76 and r²=0.79, respectively. Given the complex topography of the basin, a sensitivity analysis to the size of the grid point (from 8 km to 250 m) was conducted. If the different simulated series of SCA are close from a resolution to another, streamflows simulations are, by contrast, highly sensitive to the resolution

  7. Nature-based solutions for hydro-meteorological risk reduction and nutrient removal in the Nordic and Arctic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bring, Arvid; Kalantari, Zahra

    2017-04-01

    Natural ecological functions provide essential and fundamental benefits to mankind, but can also be actively employed in nature-based solutions to specific challenges in society. For example, water-related ecosystem services have a role in such societal benefits as flood protection, erosion control, and excess nutrient removal. Ecosystem services may be produced and consumed in different locations, and research has recently attempted to formalize this discrepancy in identifying service providing areas (SPAs), service benefitting areas (SBAs), and service connecting areas (SCAs). However, in terms of water-related services, there is a lack of formal evaluation of how SPAs, SBAs, and SCAs are related to hydrological measures such as discharge, flood recurrence, excess nutrient removal, etc. We seek to map SPAs, SBAs and SCAs for a number of key ecosystem services in the Nordic and Arctic region though established ecological definitions (typically, based on land use) and evaluate the findings alongside metrics of hydrological connectivity (river networks), provisioning areas (runoff generating areas), and benefitting areas (river stretches where water flow is moderated). We make use of extensive GIS analysis using both high-resolution land cover data and river network maps. In the end, the results are expected to contribute to identifying how water-related ecosystem services can be employed as nature-based solutions for hydro-meteorological risk reduction and nutrient removal in a changing climate in the Nordic and Arctic regions.

  8. Dynamic regulation of genome-wide pre-mRNA splicing and stress tolerance by the Sm-like protein LSm5 in Arabidopsis

    KAUST Repository

    Cui, Peng

    2014-01-07

    Background: Sm-like proteins are highly conserved proteins that form the core of the U6 ribonucleoprotein and function in several mRNA metabolism processes, including pre-mRNA splicing. Despite their wide occurrence in all eukaryotes, little is known about the roles of Sm-like proteins in the regulation of splicing.Results: Here, through comprehensive transcriptome analyses, we demonstrate that depletion of the Arabidopsis supersensitive to abscisic acid and drought 1 gene (SAD1), which encodes Sm-like protein 5 (LSm5), promotes an inaccurate selection of splice sites that leads to a genome-wide increase in alternative splicing. In contrast, overexpression of SAD1 strengthens the precision of splice-site recognition and globally inhibits alternative splicing. Further, SAD1 modulates the splicing of stress-responsive genes, particularly under salt-stress conditions. Finally, we find that overexpression of SAD1 in Arabidopsis improves salt tolerance in transgenic plants, which correlates with an increase in splicing accuracy and efficiency for stress-responsive genes.Conclusions: We conclude that SAD1 dynamically controls splicing efficiency and splice-site recognition in Arabidopsis, and propose that this may contribute to SAD1-mediated stress tolerance through the metabolism of transcripts expressed from stress-responsive genes. Our study not only provides novel insights into the function of Sm-like proteins in splicing, but also uncovers new means to improve splicing efficiency and to enhance stress tolerance in a higher eukaryote. 2014 Cui et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  9. Globally gridded terrestrial water storage variations from GRACE satellite gravimetry for hydrometeorological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liangjing; Dobslaw, Henryk; Thomas, Maik

    2016-07-01

    Globally gridded estimates of monthly-mean anomalies of terrestrial water storage (TWS) are estimated from the most recent GRACE release 05a of GFZ Potsdam in order to provide non-geodetic users a convenient access to state-of-the-art GRACE monitoring data. We use an ensemble of five global land model simulations with different physics and different atmospheric forcing to obtain reliable gridded scaling factors required to correct for spatial leakage introduced during data processing. To allow for the application of this data-set for large-scale monitoring tasks, model validation efforts, and subsequently also data assimilation experiments, globally gridded estimates of TWS uncertainties that include (i) measurement, (ii) leakage and (iii) re-scaling errors are provided as well. The results are generally consistent with the gridded data provided by Tellus, but deviate in some basins which are largely affected by the uncertainties of the model information required for re-scaling, where the approach based on the median of a small ensemble of global land models introduced in this paper leads to more robust results.

  10. Data management of extreme marine and coastal hydro-meteorological events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gelder, van Pieter H.A.J.M.; Mai, Cong V.; Wang, Wen; Shams, Ghahfaroki; Rajabalinejad, Mohammad; Burgmeijer, Madelon

    2008-01-01

    In statistical extreme value analysis and forecast modeling, data screening and management are necessary steps before fitting a probability distribution to represent adequately the observed data. These methods include trend analysis, steadiness tests, seasonality analysis, and long-memory studies; a

  11. An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Altava-Ortiz

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.

  12. Hydrometeorological extremes reconstructed from documentary evidence for the Jihlava region in the 17th-19th centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolak, Lukas; Brazdil, Rudolf; Chroma, Katerina; Valasek, Hubert; Belinova, Monika; Reznickova, Ladislava

    2016-04-01

    Different documentary evidence (taxation records, chronicles, insurance reports etc.) is used for reconstruction of hydrometeorological extremes (HMEs) in the Jihlava region (central part of the recent Czech Republic) in the 17th-19th centuries. The aim of the study is description of the system of tax alleviation in Moravia, presentation of utilization of early fire and hail damage insurance claims and application of the new methodological approaches for the analysis of HMEs impacts. During the period studied more than 400 HMEs were analysed for the 16 estates (past basic economic units). Late frost on 16 May 1662 on the Nove Mesto na Morave estate, which destroyed whole cereals and caused damage in the forests, is the first recorded extreme event. Downpours causing flash floods and hailstorms are the most frequently recorded natural disasters. Moreover, floods, droughts, windstorms, blizzards, late frosts and lightning strikes starting fires caused enormous damage as well. The impacts of HMEs are classified into three categories: impacts on agricultural production, material property and the socio-economic impacts. Natural disasters became the reasons of losses of human lives, property, supplies and farming equipment. HMEs caused damage to fields and meadows, depletion of livestock and triggered the secondary consequences as lack of seeds and finance, high prices, indebtedness, poverty and deterioration in field fertility. The results are discussed with respect to uncertainties associated with documentary evidences and their spatiotemporal distribution. Archival records, preserved in the Moravian Land Archives in Brno and other district archives, create a unique source of data contributing to the better understanding of extreme events and their impacts.

  13. Ensemble hydro-meteorological simulation for flash flood early detection in southern Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2012-01-01

    Ongoing changing climate has raised the attention towards weather driven natural hazards. Local floodings and debris flows following exceptional downpours often come without any adequate warning and cause heavy tolls to the human society. This work proposes a novel flood alert system for small catchments prone to flash flooding, capable of monitoring a large portion of the European domain. Operational streamflow simulations are produced through distributed hydrological modeling of ensemble we...

  14. Effects of Seasonal Land Surface Conditions on Hydrometeorological Dynamics in South-western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-21

    Kona, Hawaii. 12. Pierini, N.A., Templeton, R.C., Robles-Morua, A. and Vivoni, E.R. 2011. Watershed-scale ecohydrological dynamics in the Santa Rita ...of graduating undergraduates funded by a DoD funded Center of Excellence grant for Education , Research and Engineering: The number of undergraduates...the environmental sensor network. Fig. 2 illustrates the type of datasets that are useful for hydrological model testing from the Santa Rita

  15. The impact of climate change on hydrometeorological droughts at a basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrochidou, A.-E. K.; Tsanis, I. K.; Grillakis, M. G.; Koutroulis, A. G.

    2013-01-01

    SummaryThree Global Climate Models (GCMs) output (precipitation and temperature), bias corrected with the WATCH Forcing Data (WFD), for the A2 and B1 scenarios, are used for drought assessment at a basin scale. At a first step, the hydrological model IHMS-HBV was calibrated using both local and large scale forcing data (precipitation and temperature) aiming to assess the suitability of large scale forcing data in a small basin, Platis, located in Crete, for the period 1974-1999. The second step includes the forcing of the WFD calibrated HBV model with the bias corrected GCM output from 2001 to 2100 (WATCH Driving Data). The produced hydrological variables, flow, soil moisture and lower groundwater reservoir volume were used for the hydrological regime assessment and drought identification with the aid of the threshold level method. A quantitative comparison with four future sub-periods was carried out addressing the drought events number, duration and deficit volume. Simulations of both emission scenarios indicate a significant decrease in all hydrological parameters. The relative change of drought characteristics for the future periods in terms of the three-model ensemble implied severe drought conditions. For A2 scenario, it was found that the number of drought events could increase up to 98%, 109% and 81% in flow, soil moisture and groundwater respectively. B1 scenario provided more conservative estimates, with an increase of drought events number up to 56%, 92% and 34% in flow, soil moisture and groundwater, respectively. The drought duration difference between scenarios reaches up to 33%, 89% and 34% for simulated flow, soil moisture and groundwater respectively till 2100. Moderate changes can be noticed in drought deficit volume with an estimated maximum increase of 19%, 33% and 22% in flow, soil moisture and groundwater involving A2 scenario, whereas B1 scenario projected 10%, 2% and 26% maximum increase for the former parameters. The evolution of the

  16. Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting for early warning of floods and scheduling of hydropower production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments depending

  17. HEPS4Power - Extended-range Hydrometeorological Ensemble Predictions for Improved Hydropower Operations and Revenues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Konrad; Monhart, Samuel; Liniger, Mark; Spririg, Christoph; Jordan, Fred; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent years large progresses have been achieved in the operational prediction of floods and hydrological drought with up to ten days lead time. Both the public and the private sectors are currently using probabilistic runoff forecast in order to monitoring water resources and take actions when critical conditions are to be expected. The use of extended-range predictions with lead times exceeding 10 days is not yet established. The hydropower sector in particular might have large benefits from using hydro meteorological forecasts for the next 15 to 60 days in order to optimize the operations and the revenues from their watersheds, dams, captions, turbines and pumps. The new Swiss Competence Centers in Energy Research (SCCER) targets at boosting research related to energy issues in Switzerland. The objective of HEPS4POWER is to demonstrate that operational extended-range hydro meteorological forecasts have the potential to become very valuable tools for fine tuning the production of energy from hydropower systems. The project team covers a specific system-oriented value chain starting from the collection and forecast of meteorological data (MeteoSwiss), leading to the operational application of state-of-the-art hydrological models (WSL) and terminating with the experience in data presentation and power production forecasts for end-users (e-dric.ch). The first task of the HEPS4POWER will be the downscaling and post-processing of ensemble extended-range meteorological forecasts (EPS). The goal is to provide well-tailored forecasts of probabilistic nature that should be reliable in statistical and localized at catchment or even station level. The hydrology related task will consist in feeding the post-processed meteorological forecasts into a HEPS using a multi-model approach by implementing models with different complexity. Also in the case of the hydrological ensemble predictions, post-processing techniques need to be tested in order to improve the quality of the

  18. Ensemble hydro-meteorological simulation for flash flood early detection in southern Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2012-03-01

    SummaryOngoing changing climate has raised the attention towards weather driven natural hazards. Local floodings and debris flows following exceptional downpours often come without any adequate warning and cause heavy tolls to the human society. This work proposes a novel flood alert system for small catchments prone to flash flooding, capable of monitoring a large portion of the European domain. Operational streamflow simulations are produced through distributed hydrological modeling of ensemble weather forecasts. A long-term reforecast dataset is run through the same hydrological model to derive coherent warning thresholds. These are compared with operational discharge ensembles in a threshold exceedance analysis to produce early warnings. A case study in the southern Switzerland is tested over a 17-month period and system skills are evaluated by means of different quantitative and qualitative analyses. Results from three different predictors derived from the streamflow ensemble are shown and compared, also by accounting for the persistence of lagged forecasts. Significant improvements in predicting discharge thresholds exceedance are achieved by fitting gamma probability distributions to the raw ensemble. Further discussion underlines the limits of predictability of extreme events in small catchments due to the comparatively coarse space-time resolution of current weather forecasts.

  19. 基于LSM的Docker访问控制机制研究%Research on docker access control mechanism based on LSM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李平平; 陈莉君

    2016-01-01

    Docker[1]容器技术是一种基于LXC的新型容器技术,其提供一种可重复的环境中自动部署软件的方式.访问控制机制是为了确保不能非授权访问信息系统资源.针对Docker容器进程对Linux宿主机的安全隐患,提出一种基于LSM实[2]现Docker容器进程对内核资源的强制访问控制机制框架,该框架从内核层面实现Docker容器进程对Linux宿主机访问控制.实验结果表明,该框架完善了Docker容器和Linux宿主机的访问控制机制,可以有效阻止Docker容器进程访问Linux宿主机中未被隔离的内核资源,确保了Docker容器对Linux宿主机资源访问的安全.%Docker container technology is a new type of container technology based on LXC, which provides a kind of reusable software in the environment. The purpose of access control mechanism is to prevent unauthorized access to information system resources. Aiming at the security risk of Docker container process to Linux host,this paper proposed a framework of mandatory access control mechanism to protect the kernel resources between the Docker container and Linux host based on LSM which implements a process from Docker container for Linux host access control in the kernel level. The experimental results show that the framework improves the access control mechanism between Docker container and Linux host, can effectively prevent processes of Docker container from accessing the host Linux kernel resources which not been isolated and ensure the safety of Docker container for Linux host access.

  20. Hydrometeorological and vegetation indices for the drought monitoring system in Tuscany Region, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caparrini

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available We present here the first experiments for an integrated system that is under development for drought monitoring and water resources assessment in Tuscany Region in central Italy. The system is based on the cross-evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, Vegetation Indices from remote sensing (from MODIS and SEVIRI-MSG, and outputs from the distributed hydrological model MOBIDIC, that is used in real-time for water balance evaluation and hydrological forecast in the major basins of Tuscany.

    Furthermore, a telemetric network of aquifer levels is near completion in the region, and data from nearly 50 stations are already available in real-time.

    Preliminary estimates of drought indices over Tuscany in the first eight months of 2007 are shown, and pathway for further studies on the correlation between patterns of crop water stress, precipitation deficit and groundwater conditions is discussed.

  1. Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System for Local Modeling Applications and Improved Situational Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Blakenship, Clay B.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.

    2014-01-01

    As part of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Early Adopter (EA) program, the NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has implemented a data assimilation (DA) routine into the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for soil moisture retrievals from the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The SMAP EA program promotes application-driven research to provide a fundamental understanding of how SMAP data products will be used to improve decision-making at operational agencies. SPoRT has partnered with select NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) that use output from a real-time regional configuration of LIS, without soil moisture DA, to initialize local numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and enhance situational awareness. Improvements to local NWP with the current LIS have been demonstrated; however, a better representation of the land surface through assimilation of SMOS (and eventually SMAP) retrievals is expected to lead to further model improvement, particularly during warm-season months. SPoRT will collaborate with select WFOs to assess the impact of soil moisture DA on operational forecast situations. Assimilation of the legacy SMOS instrument data provides an opportunity to develop expertise in preparation for using SMAP data products shortly after the scheduled launch on 5 November 2014. SMOS contains a passive L-band radiometer that is used to retrieve surface soil moisture at 35-km resolution with an accuracy of 0.04 cu cm cm (exp -3). SMAP will feature a comparable passive L-band instrument in conjunction with a 3-km resolution active radar component of slightly degraded accuracy. A combined radar-radiometer product will offer unprecedented global coverage of soil moisture at high spatial resolution (9 km) for hydrometeorological applications, balancing the resolution and accuracy of the active and passive instruments, respectively. The LIS software framework manages land surface model

  2. Hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts, as derived from taxation records for south-eastern Moravia, Czech Republic, AD 1751–1900

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Brázdil

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Historical written records associated with tax relief at ten estates located in south-eastern Moravia (Czech Republic are used for the study of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts during the period AD 1751–1900. At the time, the taxation system in Moravia allowed farmers to request tax relief if their crop yields had been negatively affected by hydrological and meteorological extremes. The documentation involved contains information about the type of extreme event and the date of its occurrence, while the impact on crops may often be derived. A total of 175 extreme events resulting in some kind of damage is documented for 1751–1900, with the highest concentration between 1811 and 1860 (74.9% of all events analysed. The nature of events leading to damage (of a possible 272 types include hailstorm (25.7%, torrential rain (21.7%, and flood (21.0%, followed by thunderstorm, flash flood, late frost and windstorm. The four most outstanding events, affecting the highest number of settlements, were thunderstorms with hailstorms (25 June 1825, 20 May 1847 and 29 June 1890 and flooding of the River Morava (mid-June 1847. Hydrometeorological extremes in the 1816–1855 period are compared with those occurring during the recent 1961–2000 period. The results obtained are inevitably influenced by uncertainties related to taxation records, such as their temporal and spatial incompleteness, the limits of the period of outside agricultural work (i.e. mainly May–August and the purpose for which they were originally collected (primarily tax alleviation, i.e. information about hydrometeorological extremes was of secondary importance. Taxation records constitute an important source of data for historical climatology and historical hydrology and have a great potential for use in many European countries.

  3. Real time data acquisition of commercial microwave link networks for hydrometeorological applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Chwala

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The usage of data from commercial microwave link (CML networks for scientific purposes is becoming increasingly popular, in particular for rain rate estimation. However, data acquisition and availability is still a crucial problem and limits research possibilities. To overcome this issue, we have developed an open source data acquisition system based on the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP. It is able to record transmitted- and received signal levels of a large number of CMLs simultaneously with a temporal resolution of up to one second. We operate this system at Ericsson Germany, acquiring data from 450 CMLs with minutely real time transfer to our data base. Our data acquisition system is not limited to a particular CML hardware model or manufacturer, though. We demonstrate this by running the same system for CMLs of a different manufacturer, operated by an alpine skiing resort in Germany. There, the data acquisition is running simultaneously for four CMLs with a temporal resolution of one second. We present an overview of our system, describe the details of the necessary SNMP requests and show results from its operational application.

  4. Hydrometeorological Extremes and Food Security: Lessons from the 2011 and 2012 harvests in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, D. B.; Roberts, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2012-12-01

    The United States is both a major global producer of grain and a relatively variable production region. As such, it is an important driver of volatility in global food supply and food prices, which in turn affects food security in many regions. This fact was underscored by the 2012 season, in which a major drought caused production losses, which in turn led to international price increases. However, 2011 also was unusually hot and thus a good illustration of many of the issues surrounding climate change. This paper will discuss progress in modeling the impacts of extreme heat and drought on U.S. corn production, which comes from a combination of empirical and process-based approaches. One important lesson is that drought from the perspective of corn is different than traditional measures of drought, and in particular extreme heat plays a more direct role via effects on vapor pressure deficit. Implications for future impacts, interactions with carbon dioxide, and potential adaptation strategies will be discussed.

  5. Real time data acquisition of commercial microwave link networks for hydrometeorological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chwala, C.; Keis, F.; Kunstmann, H.

    2015-11-01

    The usage of data from commercial microwave link (CML) networks for scientific purposes is becoming increasingly popular, in particular for rain rate estimation. However, data acquisition and availability is still a crucial problem and limits research possibilities. To overcome this issue, we have developed an open source data acquisition system based on the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP). It is able to record transmitted- and received signal levels of a large number of CMLs simultaneously with a temporal resolution of up to one second. We operate this system at Ericsson Germany, acquiring data from 450 CMLs with minutely real time transfer to our data base. Our data acquisition system is not limited to a particular CML hardware model or manufacturer, though. We demonstrate this by running the same system for CMLs of a different manufacturer, operated by an alpine skiing resort in Germany. There, the data acquisition is running simultaneously for four CMLs with a temporal resolution of one second. We present an overview of our system, describe the details of the necessary SNMP requests and show results from its operational application.

  6. Real-time data acquisition of commercial microwave link networks for hydrometeorological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chwala, Christian; Keis, Felix; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-03-01

    The usage of data from commercial microwave link (CML) networks for scientific purposes is becoming increasingly popular, in particular for rain rate estimation. However, data acquisition and availability is still a crucial problem and limits research possibilities. To overcome this issue, we have developed an open-source data acquisition system based on the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP). It is able to record transmitted and received signal levels of a large number of CMLs simultaneously with a temporal resolution of up to 1 s. We operate this system at Ericsson Germany, acquiring data from 450 CMLs with minutely real-time transfer to our database. Our data acquisition system is not limited to a particular CML hardware model or manufacturer, though. We demonstrate this by running the same system for CMLs of a different manufacturer, operated by an alpine ski resort in Germany. There, the data acquisition is running simultaneously for four CMLs with a temporal resolution of 1 s. We present an overview of our system, describe the details of the necessary SNMP requests and show results from its operational application.

  7. Observing Seasonal and Diurnal Hydrometeorological Variability Within a Tropical Alpine Valley: Implications for Evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, R. A.; Mark, B. G.

    2007-12-01

    Conditions of glacier recession in the seasonally dry tropical Peruvian Andes motivate research to better constrain the hydrological balance in alpine valleys. There is an outstanding need to better understand the impact of the pronounced tropical hygric seasonality on energy and water budgets within pro-glacial valleys that channel glacier runoff to stream flow. This paper presents a novel embedded network installed in the glacierized Llanganuco valley of the Cordillera Blanca (9°S) comprising eight low-cost, discrete temperature and humidity microloggers ranging from 3470 to 4740 masl and an automatic weather station at 3850 masl. Data are aggregated into distinct dry and wet periods sampled from two full annual cycles (2004-2006) to explore patterns of diurnal and seasonal variability. The magnitude of diurnal solar radiation varies little within the valley between the dry and wet periods, while wet season near-surface air temperatures are cooler. Seasonally characteristic diurnal fluctuations in lapse rate partially regulate convection and humidity. Steep lapse rates during the wet season afternoon promote up-slope convection of warm, moist air and nocturnal rainfall events. Standardized grass reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was estimated using the FAO-56 algorithm of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and compared with estimates of actual ET from the process-based BROOK90 model that incorporates more realistic vegetation parameters. Comparisons of composite diurnal cycles of ET for the wet and dry periods suggest about twice the daily ET0 during the dry period, attributed primarily to the 500% higher vapor pressure deficit and 20% higher daily total solar irradiance. Conversely, the near absence of rainfall during the dry season diminishes actual ET below that of the wet season by two orders of magnitude. Nearly cloud-free daylight conditions are critical for ET during the wet season. We found significant variability of ET with elevation

  8. Improved Analyses and Forecasts of Snowpack, Runoff and Drought through Remote Sensing and Land Surface Modeling in Southeastern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, D.; Brilly, M.; Gregoric, G.; Polajnar, J.; Kobold, M.; Zagar, M.; Knoblauch, H.; Staudinger, M.; Mecklenburg, S.; Lehning, M.; Schweizer, J.; Balint, G.; Cacic, I.; Houser, P.; Pozzi, W.

    2008-12-01

    European hydrometeorological services and research centers are faced with increasing challenges from extremes of weather and climate that require significant investments in new technology and better utilization of existing human and natural resources to provide improved forecasts. Major advances in remote sensing, observation networks, data assimilation, numerical modeling, and communications continue to improve our ability to disseminate information to decision-makers and stake holders. This paper identifies gaps in current technologies, key research and decision-maker teams, and recommends means for moving forward through focused applied research and integration of results into decision support tools. This paper reports on the WaterNet - NASA Water Cycle Solutions Network contacts in Europe and summarizes progress in improving water cycle related decision-making using NASA research results. Products from the Hydrologic Sciences Branch, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, Land Information System's (LIS) Land Surface Models (LSM), the SPoRT, CREW , and European Space Agency (ESA), and Joint Research Center's (JRC) natural hazards products, and Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research's (SLF), and others are discussed. They will be used in collaboration with the ESA and the European Commission to provide solutions for improved prediction of water supplies and stream flow, and droughts and floods, and snow avalanches in the major river basins serviced by EARS, ZAMG, SLF, Vituki Consult, and other European forecast centers. This region of Europe includes the Alps and Carpathian Mountains and is an area of extreme topography with abrupt 2000 m mountains adjacent to the Adriatic Sea. These extremes result in the highest precipitation ( > 5000 mm) in Europe in Montenegro and low precipitation of 300-400 mm at the mouth of the Danube during droughts. The current flood and drought forecasting systems have a spatial resolution of 9 km, which is currently being

  9. Logarithmic Superconformal Minimal Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pearce, Paul A; Tartaglia, Elena

    2013-01-01

    The higher fusion level logarithmic minimal models LM(P,P';n) have recently been constructed as the diagonal GKO cosets (A_1^{(1)})_k oplus (A_1^{(1)})_n / (A_1^{(1)})_{k+n} where n>0 is an integer fusion level and k=nP/(P'-P)-2 is a fractional level. For n=1, these are the logarithmic minimal models LM(P,P'). For n>1, we argue that these critical theories are realized on the lattice by n x n fusion of the n=1 models. For n=2, we call them logarithmic superconformal minimal models LSM(p,p') where P=|2p-p'|, P'=p' and p,p' are coprime, and they share the central charges of the rational superconformal minimal models SM(P,P'). Their mathematical description entails the fused planar Temperley-Lieb algebra which is a spin-1 BMW tangle algebra with loop fugacity beta_2=x^2+1+x^{-2} and twist omega=x^4 where x=e^{i(p'-p)pi/p'}. Examples are superconformal dense polymers LSM(2,3) with c=-5/2, beta_2=0 and superconformal percolation LSM(3,4) with c=0, beta_2=1. We calculate the free energies analytically. By numerical...

  10. The Scd6/Lsm14 protein xRAPB has properties different from RAP55 in selecting mRNA for early translation or intracellular distribution in Xenopus oocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladomery, Michael; Sommerville, John

    2015-11-01

    Oocytes accumulate mRNAs in the form of maternal ribonucleoprotein (RNP) particles, the protein components of which determine the location and stability of individual mRNAs prior to translation. Scd6/Lsm14 proteins, typified by RAP55, function in a wide range of eukaryotes in repressing translation and relocating mRNPs to processing bodies and stress granules. In Xenopus laevis, the RAP55 orthologue xRAPA fulfils these functions. Here we describe the properties of a variant of xRAPA, xRAPB, which is a member of the Lsm14B group. xRAPB differs from xRAPA in various respects: it is expressed at high concentration earlier in oogenesis; it interacts specifically with the DDX6 helicase Xp54; it is detected in polysomes and stalled translation initiation complexes; its over-expression leads to selective binding to translatable mRNA species without evidence of translation repression or mRNA degradation. Since both Xp54 and xRAPA are repressors of translation, activation appears to be effected through targeting of xRAPB/Xp54.

  11. EPS composition and calcification potential of tufa-dominating cyanobacteria investigated by Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy (STXM) and Laser Scanning Microscopy (LSM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zippel, Barbara; Dynes, James J.; Obst, Martin; Lawrence, John R.; Neu, Thomas R.

    2010-05-01

    Tufa deposits in freshwater habitats are the result of calcium carbonate precipitation within interfacial microbial ecosystems. Calcite precipitation is influenced by the saturation index and the occurrence of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) which are produced by a variety of microorganisms. In theory, the first important step of biologically induced calcification processes is the adsorption of calcium ions by extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) produced by cyanobacteria. In the present study we take advantage of Laser Scanning Microscopy (LSM) and combine it with Synchrotron imaging using Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy (STXM). STXM represents a technique that allows simultaneous analysis of inorganic and organic constituents as a scale of 50 nm. By means of STXM it is possible to differentiate between calcium carbonate phases at the Ca L-edge. Furthermore, STXM has also been used at the C K-edge to map the major biomolecules (proteins, lipids, and polysaccharides). The purpose of this study is to find out if there are differences in calcium adsorption depending on specific composition of the EPS produced by filamentous cyanobacteria isolated from a German hard water creek (Westerhöfer Bach, Harz Mountains). The goal was to elucidate the potential of biofilms constituents, including microbial cell surfaces as well as extracellular polymeric substances, in triggering the formation of calcium carbonate in tufa systems. For this purpose three filamentous cyanobacteria (Pseudanabaena sp., Leptolyngbya sp. and Nostoc sp.) were cultivated in creek-adapted as well as standard media (BG11) on polycarbonate slides. In situ EPS composition was detected by means of fluorescence lectin-binding approach (FLBA) using 23 commercially available lectins with different specificities for mono- and disaccharides and amino sugars. For CaCO3 nucleation experiments cyanobacterial biofilms grown on polycarbonate slides were deposited in NaHCO3/CaCl2 solutions

  12. Loss Given Default Modelling: Comparative Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yashkir, Olga; Yashkir, Yuriy

    2013-01-01

    In this study we investigated several most popular Loss Given Default (LGD) models (LSM, Tobit, Three-Tiered Tobit, Beta Regression, Inflated Beta Regression, Censored Gamma Regression) in order to compare their performance. We show that for a given input data set, the quality of the model calibration depends mainly on the proper choice (and availability) of explanatory variables (model factors), but not on the fitting model. Model factors were chosen based on the amplitude of their correlati...

  13. Thermodynamics and higher order moments in SU(3) linear $\\sigma$-model with gluonic quasi-particles

    CERN Document Server

    Tawfik, Abdel Nasser

    2014-01-01

    In framework of linear $\\sigma$-model (LSM) with three quark flavors, the chiral phase-diagram at finite temperature and density is investigated. At temperatures higher than the critical temperature ($ T_c $), we added to LSM the gluonic sector from the quasi-particle model (QPM), which assumes that the interacting gluons in the strongly interacting matter, the quark-gluon plasma (QGP), are phenomenologically the same as non-interacting massive quasi-particles. The dependence of the chiral condensates of strange and non-strange quarks on temperature and chemical potential is analysed. Then, we have calculated the thermodynamics in the new approach (combination of LSM and QPM). Confronting the results with recent lattice QCD simulations shows an excellent agreement in almost all thermodynamic quantities. The first and second order moments of particle multiplicity are studied in dependence on the chemical potential but at fixed temperature and on the chemical potential but at fixed temperature. These are implem...

  14. Numerical Modeling of the Side Flow in Tape Casting of a Non-Newtonian Fluid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jabbari, Masoud; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2013-01-01

    in the tape casting process is modeled numerically with ANSYS FLUENT in combination with an Ostwald-de Waele power law constitutive equation. Based on rheometer experiments, the constants in the Ostwald-de Waele power law are identified for the considered LSM material and applied in the numerical modeling...

  15. Evaluation of a regional climate model for atmospheric simulation over Arctic river basins

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Yan; CHEN Shang; HUA Feng; WEI Helin; D. H. BROMWICH

    2008-01-01

    Evaluation on a regional climate model was made with five-month atmospheric simulations over the Arctic river basins. The simulations were performed with a modified mesoscale model, Polar MM5 coupled to the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM) to illustrate the skill of the coupled model (Polar MM5+LSM) in simulating atmospheric circulation over the Arctic river basins. Near-surface and upper-air observations were used to verify the simulations. Sensitivity studies between the Polar MM5 and Polar MMS+LSM simulations revealed that the coupled model could improve the forecast skill for surface variables at some sites. In addition, the extended evaluations of the coupled model simulations on the North American Arctic domain during December 15, 2002 to May 15, 2003 were carded out. The time series plots and statistics of the observations and Polar MM5+LSM simulations at six stations for near-surface and vertical profiles at 850 hPa and 500 hPa were analyzed. The model was found capable of reproducing the observed atmospheric behavior in both magnitude and variability, especially for temperature and near-surface wind direction.

  16. Studying the Aspects of Knowledge Creation in the LAB Studio Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kari-Pekka Heikkinen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The organisations of higher education are constantly changing. Universities, colleges, private schools and online universities refine their pedagogical methods and learning models in a competitive market. This article is a study on whether one such model helps students to gain new knowledge. A study of the LAB studio model (LSM, which is a pedagogical model developing connections between working-life based problems and the recognition and development of business-related prototypes and start-up companies, is presented. The LSM, theoretically grounded in a constructivist view of learning with a project-based education at its core, has the key goal of educating entrepreneurial competences in higher education. Based on the case study, comprisinga literature review of knowledge creation and a survey, the qualitative results analysis suggests that LSM offers a promising support for knowledge creation. The results lead to the conclusion that LSM provides support especially for the various modes of the SECI model, such as socialisation and internalisation, and seems to support organisational knowledge creation aspects as well.

  17. Assimilation of satellite observed snow albedo in a land surface model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malik, M.J.; Velde, van der R.; Vekerdy, Z.; Su, Z.

    2012-01-01

    This study assesses the impact of assimilating satellite-observed snow albedo on the Noah land surface model (LSM)-simulated fluxes and snow properties. A direct insertion technique is developed to assimilate snow albedo into Noah and is applied to three intensive study areas in North Park (Colorado

  18. Assimilation of satellite observed snow albedo in a land surface model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malik, M.J.; van der Velde, R.; Vekerdy, Z.; Su, Zhongbo

    2012-01-01

    This study assesses the impact of assimilating satellite-observed snow albedo on the Noah land surface model (LSM)-simulated fluxes and snow properties. A direct insertion technique is developed to assimilate snow albedo into Noah and is applied to three intensive study areas in North Park

  19. Assimilation of satellite observed snow albedo in a land surface model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malik, M.J.; van der Velde, R.; Vekerdy, Z.; Su, Zhongbo

    2012-01-01

    This study assesses the impact of assimilating satellite-observed snow albedo on the Noah land surface model (LSM)-simulated fluxes and snow properties. A direct insertion technique is developed to assimilate snow albedo into Noah and is applied to three intensive study areas in North Park (Colorado

  20. Thermodynamics and higher order moments in SU(3) linear σ-model with gluonic quasiparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasser Tawfik, Abdel; Magdy, Niseem

    2015-01-01

    In the framework of the linear σ-model (LSM) with three quark flavors, the chiral phase diagram at finite temperature and density is investigated. For temperatures higher than the critical temperature ({{T}c}), we added to the LSM the gluonic sector from the quasi-particle model (QPM), which assumes that the interacting gluons in the strongly interacting matter, the quark-gluon plasma (QGP), are phenomenologically the same as non-interacting massive quasi-particles. The dependence of the chiral condensates of strange and non-strange quarks on the temperature and chemical potential is analyzed. Then, we calculate the thermodynamics in the new approach (using a combination of the LSM and the QPM). Confronting the results with those from recent lattice quantum chromodynamics simulations reveals an excellent agreement for almost all thermodynamic quantities. The dependences of the first-order and second-order moments of the particle multiplicity on the chemical potential at fixed temperature are studied. These investigations are implemented through characterizing the large fluctuations accompanying the chiral phase transition. The results for the first-order and second-order moments are compared with those from the SU(3) Polyakov linear σ-model (PLSM). Also, the resulting phase diagrams deduced in the PLSM and the LSM+QPM are compared with each other.

  1. Design of Unmanned and Automatic Hydrometeorological Observation System in Oceanic Station%无人值守海洋气象仪系统设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    庞佑军; 涂大斌; 王亦平

    2013-01-01

      There is low integration, poor ability of information processing and communication in common automatic hydrometeorological observation system (HAOS) which is combined with many different sensors. An unmanned and automatic hydrometeorological observation system working in oceanic station is researched in this paper, which is based on multi-functional digital sensor, embedded controller and wireless communication module. The advanced digital sensor can measure wind-speed, wind-direction, pressure, temperature, humidity, volume of rainfall and visibility; it has the advantage of high integration, little deviation of measurement, and good anti-interference. The FPGA module can receive and display the data from sensors. The ARM module can process, store and send data. The Beidou module can accomplish data communication. The system has the advantage of high-performance, low power loss, high reliability and low maintenance requirements.%  针对传统海洋气象仪传感器种类繁多、系统集成度低、信息处理和通信能力弱等问题,研究基于数字多功能传感器组件、嵌入式控制器及无线通信模块的无人值守型海洋气象仪。采用数字式传感器,实现对风速、风向、气压、气温、湿度、降雨量及能见度的测量,具有功能集成度高、测量误差小、抗干扰能力强的优点;采用 FPGA 实现传感器信息接收与显示,采用 ARM 完成对传感器信息的处理、存储、发送及系统控制,采用“北斗”模块完成信息传输与远程遥测,系统具有性能高、功耗低、可靠、易维护升级等特点。

  2. An Indirect Data Assimilation Scheme for Deep Soil Temperature in the Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) has been improved by the addition of a 2nd indirect data assimilation scheme. The first, which was described previously, is a technique where soil moisture in nudged according to the biases in 2-m air temperature and relative humidity be...

  3. Augmentations to the Noah model physics for application to the Yellow River source area. Part I: Soil water flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zheng, Donghai; van der Velde, R.; Su, Zhongbo; Wang, X.; Wen, J.; Booij, Martijn J.; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Chen, Y.

    2015-01-01

    This is the first part of a study focusing on evaluating the performance of the Noah land surface model (LSM) in simulating surface water and energy budgets for the high-elevation source region of the Yellow River (SRYR). A comprehensive dataset is utilized that includes in situ micrometeorological

  4. The Role of Surface Energy Exchange for Simulating Wind Inflow: An Evaluation of Multiple Land Surface Models in WRF for the Southern Great Plains Site Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, Sonia [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Simpson, Matthew [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Osuna, Jessica [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biraud, Sebastien [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to investigate choice of land surface model (LSM) on the near-surface wind profile, including heights reached by multi-megawatt wind turbines. Simulations of wind profiles and surface energy fluxes were made using five LSMs of varying degrees of sophistication in dealing with soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility in Oklahoma. Surface-flux and wind-profile measurements were available for validation. The WRF model was run for three two-week periods during which varying canopy and meteorological conditions existed. The LSMs predicted a wide range of energy-flux and wind-shear magnitudes even during the cool autumn period when we expected less variability. Simulations of energy fluxes varied in accuracy by model sophistication, whereby LSMs with very simple or no soil-plant-atmosphere feedbacks were the least accurate; however, the most complex models did not consistently produce more accurate results. Errors in wind shear also were sensitive to LSM choice and were partially related to the accuracy of energy flux data. The variability of LSM performance was relatively high, suggesting that LSM representation of energy fluxes in the WRF model remains a significant source of uncertainty for simulating wind turbine inflow conditions.

  5. Intercomparison of Precipitation Simulated by Regional Climate Models over East Asia in 1997 and 1998

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dong-Kyou LEE; William J. GUTOWSKI, Jr.; Hyun-Suk KANG; Chun-Ji KIM

    2007-01-01

    Regional climate simulations in Asia from May 1997 to August 1998 were performed using the Seoul National University regional climate model (SNURCM) and Iowa State University regional climate model (ALT.MM5/LSM), which were developed by coupling the NCAR/Land Surface Model (LSM) and the Mesoscale Model (MM5). However, for physical processes of precipitation, the SNURCM used the Grell scheme for the convective parameterization scheme (CPS) and the simple ice scheme for the explicit moisture scheme (EMS), while the ALT.MM5/LSM used the Betts-Miller scheme for CPS and the mixed phase scheme for EMS.The simulated precipitation patterns and amounts over East Asia for the extreme climatic summer in 1997 (relative drought conditions) and 1998 (relative flood conditions) were especially focused upon. The ALT.MM5/LSM simulated more precipitation than was observed in 1997 due to more moisture and cloud water in the lower levels, despite weak upward motion. In the SNURCM, strong upward motion resulted in more precipitation than that was observed in 1998, with more moisture and cloud water in the middle levels. In the ALT.MM5/LSM, weak upward motion, unchanged moisture in the lower troposphere, and the decrease in latent heat flux at the surface increased convective precipitation only by 3% for the 1998 summer event. In the SNURCM, strong upward motion, the increase in moisture in the lower troposphere, and the increase in latent heat flux at the surface increased convective precipitation by 48% for the summer of 1998. The main differences between both simulations were moisture availability and horizontal momentum transport in the lower troposphere, which were also strongly influenced by large-scale forcing.

  6. Integrating data and mashup concepts in Hydro-Meteorological Research: the torrential rainfall event in Genoa (4th November 2011) case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedrina, T.; Parodi, A.; Quarati, A.; Clematis, A.; Rebora, N.; Laiosa, D.

    2012-04-01

    One of the critical issues in Hydro-Meteorological Research (HMR) is a better exploitation of data archives according to a multidisciplinary perspective. Different Earth science databases offer a huge amount of observational data, which often need to be assembled, processed, combined accordingly HM scientists needs. The cooperation between scientists active in HMR and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) is essential in the development of innovative tools and applications for manipulating, aggregating and re-arranging heterogeneous information in flexible way. In this paper it is described an application devoted to the collection and integration of HM datasets, originated by public or private sources, freely exposed via Web services API. This application uses the mashup, recently become very popular in many fields, (Chow S.-W., 2007) technology concepts. Such methodology means combination of data and/or programs published by external online sources into an integrated experience. Mashup seems to be a promising methodology to respond to the multiple data-related activities into which HM researchers are daily involved (e.g. finding and retrieving high volume data; learning formats and developing readers; extracting parameters; performing filtering and mask; developing analysis and visualization tools). The specific case study of the recent extreme rainfall event, occurred over Genoa in Italy on the 4th November 2011 is shown through the integration of semi-professional weather observational networks as free available data source in addition to official weather networks.

  7. Evaluation of urban surface parameterizations in the WRF model using measurements during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006 field campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.-H. Lee

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of urban surface parameterizations in the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model on the simulation of local meteorological fields is investigated. The Noah land surface model (LSM, a modified LSM, and a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM have been compared, focusing on urban patches. The model simulations were performed for 6 days from 12 August to 17 August during the Texas Air Quality Study 2006 field campaign. Analysis was focused on the Houston-Galveston metropolitan area. The model simulated temperature, wind, and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL height were compared with observations from surface meteorological stations (Continuous Ambient Monitoring Stations, CAMS, wind profilers, the NOAA Twin Otter aircraft, and the NOAA Research Vessel Ronald H. Brown. The UCM simulation showed better results in the comparison of ABL height and surface temperature than the LSM simulations, whereas the original LSM overestimated both the surface temperature and ABL height significantly in urban areas. The modified LSM, which activates hydrological processes associated with urban vegetation mainly through transpiration, slightly reduced warm and high biases in surface temperature and ABL height. A comparison of surface energy balance fluxes in an urban area indicated the UCM reproduces a realistic partitioning of sensible heat and latent heat fluxes, consequently improving the simulation of urban boundary layer. However, the LSMs have a higher Bowen ratio than the observation due to significant suppression of latent heat flux. The comparison results suggest that the subgrid heterogeneity by urban vegetation and urban morphological characteristics should be taken into account along with the associated physical parameterizations for accurate simulation of urban boundary layer if the region of interest has a large fraction of vegetation within the urban patch. Model showed significant discrepancies in the specific meteorological

  8. Apply the irrigation and ground water access schemes into LIS Noah LSM to improve the ET fluxes in the riparian areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, J.; Toll, D.; Arsenault, K.; Ozdogan, M.; Mitchell, K.

    2008-05-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) has been identified by U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, EPA and other agencies as a critical factor for determining water availability affecting various applications. The ET fluxes are the integrated responses to the weather, land surface properties, and soil water availability. Riparian regions are characterized with less precipitation and high temperature, but the ET fluxes are extremely high due to the groundwater access along the river and crop irrigation. Crop irrigation and depletions by riparian vegetation are the largest surface water uses in the Middle Rio Grande Basin, accounting for up to 90 percent of surface water withdrawals. It is impossible to retrieve the observed ET flux for land surface models at current forcing and model configurations. Therefore, the extra water sources are required in the modeling. We propose the following implementations to NASA Land Information System (LIS) Noah land surface model. For the irrigated crops we applied an irrigation scheme by artificially adding the irrigation rate to the precipitation. The irrigation rate is calculated from the water demand by crops. We accounted for the riparian deep water access by controlling the soil moisture in the bottom layer at the field capacity for the regions close to the river. Two LIS Noah simulations have been performed in parallel. One uses the NCEP default configuration, and the other uses the updated LIS configuration including the tiling consideration derived from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landsat based 30m land cover map, MODIS greenness, crop irrigation scheme and groundwater access scheme. Both LIS Noah runs at 1km resolution start from January 1, 2005 with the initial conditions from the five- year spin-up runs. LIS Noah model has demonstrated the ability to reconstruct the observed ET fluxes in the riparian regions without changing the model dynamics and physics.

  9. WRF model for precipitation simulation and its application in real-time flood forecasting in the Jinshajiang River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jianzhong; Zhang, Hairong; Zhang, Jianyun; Zeng, Xiaofan; Ye, Lei; Liu, Yi; Tayyab, Muhammad; Chen, Yufan

    2017-07-01

    An accurate flood forecasting with long lead time can be of great value for flood prevention and utilization. This paper develops a one-way coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system consisting of the mesoscale numerical weather model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Chinese Xinanjiang hydrological model to extend flood forecasting lead time in the Jinshajiang River Basin, which is the largest hydropower base in China. Focusing on four typical precipitation events includes: first, the combinations and mode structures of parameterization schemes of WRF suitable for simulating precipitation in the Jinshajiang River Basin were investigated. Then, the Xinanjiang model was established after calibration and validation to make up the hydro-meteorological system. It was found that the selection of the cloud microphysics scheme and boundary layer scheme has a great impact on precipitation simulation, and only a proper combination of the two schemes could yield accurate simulation effects in the Jinshajiang River Basin and the hydro-meteorological system can provide instructive flood forecasts with long lead time. On the whole, the one-way coupled hydro-meteorological model could be used for precipitation simulation and flood prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin because of its relatively high precision and long lead time.

  10. Validating hydro-meteorological fluxes using GRACE-derived water storage changes - a global and regional perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eicker, Annette; Springer, Anne; Kusche, Jürgen; Jütten, Thomas; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Longuevergne, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    Atmospheric and terrestrial water budgets, which represent important boundary conditions for both climate modeling and hydrological studies, are linked by evapotranspiration (E) and precipitation (P). These fields are provided by numerical weather prediction models and atmospheric reanalyses such as ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land; yet, in particular the quality of E is still not well evaluated. Via the terrestrial water budget equation, water storage changes derived from products of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, combined with runoff (R) data can be used to assess the realism of atmospheric models. While on short temporal scales (inter-annual down to sub-seasonal) the modeled fluxes agree remarkably well with GRACE water storage changes, the models exhibit large biases and fail to capture the long-term flux trends in P-E-R corresponding to GRACE accelerations (Eicker et al. 2016). This leads to the assumption that despite the short time span of available gravity field observations, GRACE is able to provide new information for constraining the long-term evolution of water fluxes in future atmospheric reanalyses. In this contribution we will investigate the agreement of GRACE water storage changes with P-E-R flux time series from different (global and regional) atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, as well as observation-based data sets. We will perform a global analyses and we will additionally focus on selected river basins. The investigations will be carried out for various temporal scales, focussing on the short-term fluxes (month-to-month variations), for which models and GRACE agree well with correlations of the de-trended and de-seasoned fluxes time series reaching up to 0.8 and more. We will furthermore extent the study towards even higher temporal frequencies, investigating whether the modeled and observed fluxes show sub-monthly variability that can be detected in daily GRACE time series. Eicker, A., E. Forootan, A. Springer

  11. International Severe Weather and Flash Flood Hazard Early Warning Systems—Leveraging Coordination, Cooperation, and Partnerships through a Hydrometeorological Project in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Jubach

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate, weather and water hazards do not recognize national boundaries. Transboundary/regional programs and cooperation are essential to reduce the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods when facing these hazards. The development and implementation of systems to provide early warnings for severe weather events such as cyclones and flash floods requires data and information sharing in real time, and coordination among the government agencies at all levels. Within a country, this includes local, municipal, provincial-to-national levels as well as regional and international entities involved in hydrometeorological services and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR. Of key importance are the National Meteorological and Hydrologic Services (NMHSs. The NMHS is generally the authority solely responsible for issuing warnings for these hazards. However, in many regions of the world, the linkages and interfaces between the NMHS and other agencies are weak or non-existent. Therefore, there is a critical need to assess, strengthen, and formalize collaborations when addressing the concept of reducing risk and impacts from severe weather and floods. The U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance; the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO; the WMO Southern Africa Regional Specialized Meteorological Center, hosted by the South African Weather Service; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service and the Hydrologic Research Center (a non-profit corporation are currently implementing a project working with Southern Africa NMHSs on addressing this gap. The project aims to strengthen coordination and collaboration mechanisms from national to local levels. The project partners are working with the NMHSs to apply and implement appropriate tools and infrastructure to enhance currently operational severe weather and flash flood early warning systems in each country in support of

  12. Using the Maximum Entropy Principle as a Unifying Theory Characterization and Sampling of Multi-Scaling Processes in Hydrometeorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-20

    the water balance equation. (a) water balance based estimate of Fw using evaporation E data from OAFlux product, precipitation P data from GPCP...cover types including bare soil, canopy, water , snow and ice, was expanded to modeling global surface energy budget, fluxes and greenhouse gases (e.g...carbon dioxide and methane) fluxes, ocean freshwater fluxes, regional crop yield among others. An on-going study suggests that the global annual

  13. Limited-area ensemble activities at the Hydro-Meteorological service ARPA-SIMC: the COSMO-LEPS system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montani, A.; Marsigli, C.; Paccagnella, T.

    2009-09-01

    This contribution shows the most relevant results obtained after six years of operational activity carried out by ARPA-SIM in the field of limited-area ensemble forecasting. It is presented the main features of COSMO-LEPS, the limited-area ensemble prediction system based on the non-hydrostatic COSMO-model and developed within the COSMO consortium. This system aims at improving upon the early and medium-range predictability of extreme and localized weather events, especially when orographic and mesoscale-related processes play a crucial role. The present status of COSMO-LEPS, based on 16 integrations of the non-hydrostatic COSMO-model (10 km of horizontal resolution, 40 vertical levels, 132 hours of forecast range) and running as a ``time-critical application'' at ECMWF, is illustrated with the different upgrades which took place in the past years. The impacts of increasing the ensemble size and the vertical resolution of the model integrations are assessed. Verification results are shown in terms of both seasonal and monthly scores from December 2002 onwards; for some seasons, the skill the system is also compared to that of ECMWF EPS. In addition to this, the performance of COSMO-LEPS is investigated for cases of particular interest over Europe. The attention is mainly focused on the probabilistic prediction of total precipitation, so as to assess the possibility to issue weather alerts on the basis of COSMO-LEPS products. Finally, the future developments of the system are outlined with emphasis on the development of TIGGE-LAM targeted products, on the implementation of a 7km-grid COSMO-LEPS and on modifications of the methodology which could make the system more performing.

  14. Informing the operations of water reservoirs over multiple temporal scales by direct use of hydro-meteorological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denaro, Simona; Anghileri, Daniela; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2017-05-01

    Water reservoir systems may become more adaptive and reliable to external changes by enlarging the information sets used in their operations. Models and forecasts of future hydro-climatic and socio-economic conditions are traditionally used for this purpose. Nevertheless, the identification of skillful forecasts and models might be highly critical when the system comprises several processes with inconsistent dynamics (fast and slow) and disparate levels of predictability. In these contexts, the direct use of observational data, describing the current conditions of the water system, may represent a practicable and zero-cost alternative. This paper contrasts the relative contribution of state observations and perfect forecasts of future water availability in improving multipurpose water reservoirs operation over short- and long-term temporal scales. The approach is demonstrated on the snow-dominated Lake Como system, operated for flood control and water supply. The Information Selection Assessment (ISA) framework is adopted to retrieve the most relevant information to be used for conditioning the operations. By explicitly distinguishing between observational dataset and future forecasts, we quantify the relative contribution of current water system state estimates and perfect streamflow forecasts in improving the lake regulation with respect to both flood control and water supply. Results show that using the available observational data capturing slow dynamic processes, particularly the snow melting process, produces a 10% improvement in the system performance. This latter represents the lower bound of the potential improvement, which may increase to the upper limit of 40% in case skillful (perfect) long-term streamflow forecasts are used.

  15. Modeling cellular deformations using the level set formalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many cellular processes involve substantial shape changes. Traditional simulations of these cell shape changes require that grids and boundaries be moved as the cell's shape evolves. Here we demonstrate that accurate cell shape changes can be recreated using level set methods (LSM, in which the cellular shape is defined implicitly, thereby eschewing the need for updating boundaries. Results We obtain a viscoelastic model of Dictyostelium cells using micropipette aspiration and show how this viscoelastic model can be incorporated into LSM simulations to recreate the observed protrusion of cells into the micropipette faithfully. We also demonstrate the use of our techniques by simulating the cell shape changes elicited by the chemotactic response to an external chemoattractant gradient. Conclusion Our results provide a simple but effective means of incorporating cellular deformations into mathematical simulations of cell signaling. Such methods will be useful for simulating important cellular events such as chemotaxis and cytokinesis.

  16. Characterization of the upper Arve watershed at Chamonix (French Northern Alp) from an integrated glacial-snow-hydrometeorological point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isabella, Zin; Delphine, Six; Thomas, Condom; Catherine, Coulaud; Michel, Esteves; Olivier, Laarman; Matthieu, Lafaysse; Thierry, Lebel; Grégoire, Lecourt; Samuel, Morin; Charles, Obled; Antoine, Rabatel; Jesus, Revuelto; Alessandra, Viani; Christian, Vincent; Vincent, Vionnet; Frederic, Gottardi

    2016-04-01

    The upper Arve watershed (205 km²) is characterized by a high elevational gradient (altitude ranges from 1000 to 4810m asl), a significant glaciated area (about 33% of the total area) and a strong contrast between the bordering Mont Blanc and Aiguilles Rouges massifs in terms of land use , surface conditions and meteorological forcing. While the rainfall regime in the valley is relatively stable during the year, the thermal regime shows strong diurnal and seasonal variability. The hydrological regime of the main stream and its tributaries is dominated by snow and glacier melt, with high flow rates in summer and low flow rates in wintertime, when snowfalls accumulate on the ground. Water transfers from a compartment to another are particularly rapid, with flash floods having lag times of about 4 to 6 hours and significant sediment transport associated with liquid flow rates. Since 2014, a project involving local communities, stackeholders and researchers and aiming at understanding the flood generation processes and their evolution with climatic and environmental changes has been started. The project aims at characterizing the catchment behaviour from an integrated glacial-snow-hydrometeorological point of view and to develop a flood forecasting system for anticipate as much as possible a possible crisis and improve its management. As a part of this project and in the continuity of existing long-term measures in the valley (particularly within the GLACIOCLIM research observing system and the operational Météo-France frameworks) a new instrumentation network has been implemented in order to observe simultaneously the different components of the water cycle (atmospheric, hydrological, snow and glaciological variables) and their spatial, temporal and altitudinal gradients. We will present the instrumental network and the measurement strategy, as well as an analysis of the data collected during the 2014 and 2015 summers, which are quite contrasted from a

  17. Human impacts of hydrometeorological extremes in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands derived from documentary sources in the 18th-19th centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolák, Lukáš; Brázdil, Rudolf; Valášek, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    The extent of damage caused by hydrometeorological events or extremes (HME) has risen up in the entire world in the last few years. Especially the floods, flash floods, torrential rains and hailstorms are the most typical and one of the most frequent kind of natural disasters in the central Europe. Catastrophes are a part of human history and people were forced to cope with their consequences (e. g. material damage, economical losses, impacts on agriculture and society or losses of human lives). This paper analyses the human impacts of HME in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands (central part of the Czech Republic) on the basis of documentary sources from the 18th-19th centuries. The paper presents various negative impacts of natural disasters on lives and property and subsequent inconveniences of Czech peasants. The preserved archival documents of estates or domains became the primary sources of data (e. g. taxation reliefs, damaged records, reports of afflicted farmers, administrative correspondence etc.). Particularly taxation reliefs relate to taxation system in the Czech lands during the 17th-19th centuries allowing to farmers to ask for tax alleviation when their crops were significantly damaged by any HME. These archival documents are a highly valuable source for the study of human impacts of natural disasters. Devastating consequences of these extremes affected individual farmers much more than the aristocracy. Floods caused inundations of farmer's fields, meadows, houses and farm buildings, washed away the arable land with crops, caused losses of cattle, clogged the land with gravel and mud and destroyed roads, bridges or agricultural equipment. Afflicted fields became worthless and it took them many years to become became fertile again. Crop was also damaged by hailstorms, droughts or late/early frosts. All these events led to lack of food and seeds in the following year and it meant the decrease of living standard, misery and poverty of farmers. Acquired

  18. Exploring hydro-meteorological drought patterns over the Greater Horn of Africa (1979-2014) using remote sensing and reanalysis products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awange, J. L.; Khandu; Schumacher, M.; Forootan, E.; Heck, B.

    2016-08-01

    Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological droughts over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are explored based on total water storage (TWS) changes derived from time-variable gravity field solutions of Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE, 2002-2014), together with those simulated by Modern Retrospective Analysis for Research Application (MERRA, 1980-2014). These hydrological extremes are then related to meteorological drought events estimated from observed monthly precipitation products of Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC, 1979-2010) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, 1998-2014). The major focus of this contribution lies on the application of spatial Independent Component Analysis (sICA) to extract distinguished regions with similar rainfall and TWS with similar overall trend and seasonality. Rainfall and TWS are used to estimate Standard Precipitation Indices (SPIs) and Total Storage Deficit Indices (TSDIs), respectively that are employed to characterize frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological droughts over GHA. Significant positive (negative) changes in monthly rainfall over Ethiopia (Sudan) between 2002 and 2010 leading to a significant increase in TWS over the central GHA region were noted in both MERRA and GRACE TWS (2002-2014). However, these trends were completely reversed in the long-term (1980-2010) records of rainfall (GPCC) and TWS (MERRA). The four independent hydrological sub-regions extracted based on the sICA (i.e., Lake Victoria Basin, Ethiopia-Sudanese border, South Sudan, and Tanzania) indicated fairly distinct temporal patterns that matched reasonably well between precipitation and TWS changes. While meteorological droughts were found to be consistent with most previous studies in all sub-regions, their impacts are clearly observed in the TWS changes resulting in multiple years of extreme hydrological droughts. Correlations between SPI and TSDI were found to be significant over Lake Victoria Basin, South

  19. LSM Microelectrodes: Kinetics and Surface Composition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Karin Vels; Norrman, Kion; Jacobsen, Torben

    2015-01-01

    Lanthanum strontium manganite microelectrodes with the nominal composition of (La0.75Sr0.25)0.95MnO3 and a thickness of ca 500 nm was electrochemically characterized in situ at temperatures from 660 to 850◦C using a controlled atmosphere high temperature scanning probe microscope. Impedance...... spectroscopy and cyclic voltammetry were performed on electrodes with diameters of 20–100 μm in oxygen, air and nitrogen both at open circuit voltage and at anodic and cathodic polarization. In situ conductance mapping, ex situ surface analysis by time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry, and scanning...

  20. LSM is not generated by binary functions

    CERN Document Server

    McQuillan, Colin

    2011-01-01

    Bulatov et al. [1] defined the operation of (efficient) pps_\\omega-definability in order to study the computational complexity of certain approximate counting problems. They asked whether all log-supermodular functions can be defined by binary implication and unary functions in this sense. We give a negative answer to this question.

  1. LSM Microelectrodes: Kinetics and Surface Composition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Karin Vels; Norrman, Kion; Jacobsen, Torben;

    2015-01-01

    Lanthanum strontium manganite microelectrodes with the nominal composition of (La0.75Sr0.25)0.95MnO3 and a thickness of ca 500 nm was electrochemically characterized in situ at temperatures from 660 to 850◦C using a controlled atmosphere high temperature scanning probe microscope. Impedance...

  2. A New Approach for Parameter Optimization in Land Surface Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongqi; GUO Weidong; SUN Guodong; ZHANG Yaocun; FU Congbin

    2011-01-01

    In this study,a new parameter optimization method was used to investigate the expansion of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) in a land surface model (LSM) using long-term enhanced field observations at Tongyn station in Jilin Province,China,combined with a sophisticated LSM (common land model,CoLM).Tongyu station is a reference site of the international Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project (CEOP) that has studied semiarid regions that have undergone desertification,salination,and degradation since late 1960s.In this study,three key land-surface parameters,namely,soil color,proportion of sand or clay in soil,and leaf-area index were chosen as parameters to be optimized.Our study comprised three experiments:First,a single-parameter optimization was performed,while the second and third experiments performed triple- and six-parameter optinizations,respectively.Notable improvements in simulating sensible heat flux (SH),latent heat flux (LH),soil temperature (TS),and moisture (MS) at shallow layers were achieved using the optimized parameters.The multiple-parameter optimization experiments performed better than the single-parameter experminent.All results demonstrate that the CNOP method can be used to optimize expanded parameters in an LSM.Moreover,clear mathematical meaning,simple design structure,and rapid computability give this method great potential for further application to parameter optimization in LSMs.

  3. Low-energy limit of the extended Linear Sigma Model

    CERN Document Server

    Divotgey, Florian; Giacosa, Francesco; Rischke, Dirk H

    2016-01-01

    The extended Linear Sigma Model (eLSM) is an effective hadronic model based on the linear realization of chiral symmetry $SU(N_f)_L \\times SU(N_f)_R$, with (pseudo)scalar and (axial-)vector mesons as degrees of freedom. In this paper, we study the low-energy limit of the eLSM for $N_f=2$ flavors by integrating out all fields except for the pions, the (pseudo-)Nambu--Goldstone bosons of chiral symmetry breaking. We only keep terms entering at tree level and up to fourth order in powers of derivatives of the pion fields. Up to this order, there are four low-energy coupling constants in the resulting low-energy effective action. We show that the latter is formally identical to Chiral Perturbation Theory (ChPT), after choosing a representative for the coset space generated by chiral symmetry breaking and expanding up to fourth order in powers of derivatives of the pion fields. Two of the low-energy coupling constants of the eLSM are uniquely determined by a fit to hadron masses and decay widths. We find that thei...

  4. Use of agent-based modelling in emergency management under a range of flood hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tagg Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Life Safety Model (LSM was developed some 15 years ago, originally for dam break assessments and for informing reservoir evacuation and emergency plans. Alongside other technological developments, the model has evolved into a very useful agent-based tool, with many applications for a range of hazards and receptor behaviour. HR Wallingford became involved in its use in 2006, and is now responsible for its technical development and commercialisation. Over the past 10 years the model has been applied to a range of flood hazards, including coastal surge, river flood, dam failure and tsunami, and has been verified against historical events. Commercial software licences are being used in Canada, Italy, Malaysia and Australia. A core group of LSM users and analysts has been specifying and delivering a programme of model enhancements. These include improvements to traffic behaviour at intersections, new algorithms for sheltering in high-rise buildings, and the addition of monitoring points to allow detailed analysis of vehicle and pedestrian movement. Following user feedback, the ability of LSM to handle large model ‘worlds’ and hydrodynamic meshes has been improved. Recent developments include new documentation, performance enhancements, better logging of run-time events and bug fixes. This paper describes some of the recent developments and summarises some of the case study applications, including dam failure analysis in Japan and mass evacuation simulation in England.

  5. Decays of open charmed mesons in the extended Linear Sigma Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eshraim Walaa I.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We enlarge the so-called extended linear Sigma model (eLSM by including the charm quark according to the global U(4r × U(4l chiral symmetry. In the eLSM, besides scalar and pseudoscalar mesons, also vector and axial-vector mesons are present. Almost all the parameters of the model were fixed in a previous study of mesons below 2 GeV. In the extension to the four-flavor case, only three additional parameters (all of them related to the bare mass of the charm quark appear.We compute the (OZI dominant strong decays of open charmed mesons. The results are compatible with the experimental data, although the theoretical uncertainties are still large.

  6. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2017-08-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  7. Impact of model resolution and Mediterranean sea coupling on hydrometeorological extremes in RCMs in the frame of HyMeX and MED-CORDEX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthou, G.; Vrac, M.; Drobinski, P.; Bastin, S.; Li, L.

    2016-10-01

    In this study, we are interested in evaluating the potential improvement of: (i) coupled RCM simulations (with the Mediterranean sea) in comparison with atmosphere only (stand-alone) RCM simulations and (ii) RCM simulations at a finer resolution in comparison with coarser resolution. For that, three different RCMs (WRF, ALADIN, LMDZ4) were run, forced by ERA-Interim reanalyses, within the HyMeX/Med-CORDEX experiments. For each RCM, different versions (coupled/stand-alone, high/low resolution) were realized. This study focuses on extreme meteorological events (hot days, droughts and heavy precipitation) and evaluates the current RCM simulations in terms of return levels associated with these events. Additionally, a large set of indicators is proposed in order to better understand the performances of RCM simulations. These indicators were applied for three variables (daily precipitation amount, mean daily 2-m air temperature and dry spell length). Results show that the differences between coupled and stand-alone RCMs are localized very near the Mediterranean sea. For hot days and droughts statistics, high resolution runs display better performances than low resolution runs. The expected improvement for extreme precipitation with higher resolution runs was not observed in this study.

  8. Regional drought assessment using a distributed hydrological model coupled with Standardized Runoff Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, H.; Yuan, F.; Ren, L.; Ma, M.; Kong, H.; Tong, R.

    2015-05-01

    Drought assessment is essential for coping with frequent droughts nowadays. Owing to the large spatio-temporal variations in hydrometeorology in most regions in China, it is very necessary to use a physically-based hydrological model to produce rational spatial and temporal distributions of hydro-meteorological variables for drought assessment. In this study, the large-scale distributed hydrological model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was coupled with a modified standardized runoff index (SRI) for drought assessment in the Weihe River basin, northwest China. The result indicates that the coupled model is capable of reasonably reproducing the spatial distribution of drought occurrence. It reflected the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought and improved the physical mechanism of SRI. This model also has potential for drought forecasting, early warning and mitigation, given that accurate meteorological forcing data are available.

  9. On the potential application of land surface models for drought monitoring in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liang; Zhang, Huqiang; Zhang, Qiang; Li, Yaohui; Zhao, Jianhua

    2017-05-01

    The potential of using land surface models (LSMs) to monitor near-real-time drought has not been fully assessed in China yet. In this study, we analyze the performance of such a system with a land surface model (LSM) named the Australian Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE). The meteorological forcing datasets based on reanalysis products and corrected by observational data have been extended to near-real time for semi-operational trial. CABLE-simulated soil moisture (SM) anomalies are used to characterize drought spatial and temporal evolutions. One outstanding feature in our analysis is that with the same meteorological data, we have calculated a range of drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We have assessed the similarity among these indices against observed SM over a number of regions in China. While precipitation is the dominant factor in the drought development, relationships between precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture anomalies vary significantly under different climate regimes, resulting in different characteristics of droughts in China. The LSM-based trial system is further evaluated for the 1997/1998 drought in northern China and 2009/2010 drought in southwestern China. The system can capture the severities and temporal and spatial evolutions of these drought events well. The advantage of using a LSM-based drought monitoring system is further demonstrated by its potential to monitor other consequences of drought impacts in a more physically consistent manner.

  10. On the potential application of land surface models for drought monitoring in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liang; Zhang, Huqiang; Zhang, Qiang; Li, Yaohui; Zhao, Jianhua

    2016-01-01

    The potential of using land surface models (LSMs) to monitor near-real-time drought has not been fully assessed in China yet. In this study, we analyze the performance of such a system with a land surface model (LSM) named the Australian Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE). The meteorological forcing datasets based on reanalysis products and corrected by observational data have been extended to near-real time for semi-operational trial. CABLE-simulated soil moisture (SM) anomalies are used to characterize drought spatial and temporal evolutions. One outstanding feature in our analysis is that with the same meteorological data, we have calculated a range of drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We have assessed the similarity among these indices against observed SM over a number of regions in China. While precipitation is the dominant factor in the drought development, relationships between precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture anomalies vary significantly under different climate regimes, resulting in different characteristics of droughts in China. The LSM-based trial system is further evaluated for the 1997/1998 drought in northern China and 2009/2010 drought in southwestern China. The system can capture the severities and temporal and spatial evolutions of these drought events well. The advantage of using a LSM-based drought monitoring system is further demonstrated by its potential to monitor other consequences of drought impacts in a more physically consistent manner.

  11. Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramarohetra, Johanna; Pohl, Benjamin; Sultan, Benjamin

    2015-12-01

    The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments were performed at two sites in Sub-Saharan Africa and by using two crop models to simulate Niger pearl millet and Benin maize yields. We find that the use of the WRF model to downscale ERA-Interim climate data generally reduces the bias in the simulated crop yield, yet this reduction in bias strongly depends on the choices in the model setup. Among the physical parameterizations considered, we show that the choice of the land surface model (LSM) is of primary importance. When there is no coupling with a LSM, or when the LSM is too simplistic, the simulated precipitation and then the simulated yield are null, or respectively very low; therefore, coupling with a LSM is necessary. The convective scheme is the second most influential scheme for yield simulation, followed by the shortwave radiation scheme. The uncertainties related to the internal variability of the WRF model are also significant and reach up to 30% of the simulated yields. These results suggest that regional models need to be used more carefully in order to improve the reliability of impact assessments.

  12. On the development of a coupled land surface and groundwater model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maxwell, R.M.; Miller, N.L.

    2004-05-04

    Management of surface water quality is often complicated by interactions between surface water and groundwater. Traditional Land-Surface Models (LSM) used for numerical weather prediction, climate projection, and as inputs to water management decision support systems, do not treat the LSM lower boundary in a fully process-based fashion. LSMs have evolved from a leaky bucket to more sophisticated land surface water and energy budget models that typically have a so-called basement term to depict the bottom model layer exchange with deeper aquifers. Nevertheless, the LSM lower boundary is often assumed zero flux or the soil moisture content is set to a constant value; an approach that while mass conservative, ignores processes that can alter surface fluxes, runoff, and water quantity and quality. Conversely, groundwater models (GWM) for saturated and unsaturated water flow, while addressing important features such as subsurface heterogeneity and three-dimensional flow, often have overly simplified upper boundary conditions that ignore soil heating, runoff, snow and root-zone uptake. In the present study, a state-of-the-art LSM (CLM) and a variably-saturated GWM (ParFlow) have been coupled as a single column model. A set of simulations based on synthetic data and data from the Project for Intercomparison of Landsurface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS), version 2(d), 18-year dataset from Valdai, Russia demonstrate the temporal dynamics of this coupled modeling system. Changes in soil moisture and movement of the water table are used as indicators of mass conservation between the LSM and GWM. This study demonstrates the affect of aquifer storage and a dynamic water table on predicted watershed flow. The model's ability to capture certain cold processes such as frozen soil and freeze/thaw processes are discussed. Comparisons of the uncoupled and coupled modes are presented and the differences in simulations of soil moisture and shallow and deeper ground processes are

  13. Forward-looking Assimilation of MODIS-derived Snow Covered Area into a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Rodell, Matthew

    2008-01-01

    Snow cover over land has a significant impact on the surface radiation budget, turbulent energy fluxes to the atmosphere, and local hydrological fluxes. For this reason, inaccuracies in the representation of snow covered area (SCA) within a land surface model (LSM) can lead to substantial errors in both offline and coupled simulations. Data assimilation algorithms have the potential to address this problem. However, the assimilation of SCA observations is complicated by an information deficit in the observation SCA indicates only the presence or absence of snow, and not snow volume and by the fact that assimilated SCA observations can introduce inconsistencies with atmospheric forcing data, leading to non-physical artifacts in the local water balance. In this paper we present a novel assimilation algorithm that introduces MODIS SCA observations to the Noah LSM in global, uncoupled simulations. The algorithm utilizes observations from up to 72 hours ahead of the model simulation in order to correct against emerging errors in the simulation of snow cover while preserving the local hydrologic balance. This is accomplished by using future snow observations to adjust air temperature and, when necessary, precipitation within the LSM. In global, offline integrations, this new assimilation algorithm provided improved simulation of SCA and snow water equivalent relative to open loop integrations and integrations that used an earlier SCA assimilation algorithm. These improvements, in turn, influenced the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes both during the snow season and, in some regions, on into the following spring.

  14. Assimilation of satellite information in a snowpack model to improve characterization of snow cover for runoff simulation and forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A new technique for constructing spatial fields of snow characteristics for runoff simulation and forecasting is presented. The technique incorporates satellite land surface monitoring data and available ground-based hydrometeorological measurements in a physical based snowpack model. The snowpack model provides simulation of temporal changes of the snow depth, density and water equivalent (SWE), accounting for snow melt, sublimation, refreezing melt water and snow metamorphism processes with...

  15. Soil Drought Assessment of Huaibei Regions in Jiangsu Province Based on WRF-NoahLSM Coupled Model%基于WRF-NoahLSM耦合模型的江苏省淮北地区土壤旱情评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱坚; 杨涛; 黄丹青; 周旭东; 黄利亚; 周毅

    2014-01-01

    针对江苏省淮北地区土壤旱情评估问题,采用WRF-NoahLSM耦合模型模拟了淮北地区2011年2~7月降水量及土壤含水率,并与实测的降水量及土壤含水率做了对比,进而评估了淮北地区的土壤旱情.结果表明,WRF-NoahLSM耦合模型能较准确地模拟降水发生日和弱降水的降水量,以及2~7月土壤含水率变化规律;模拟土壤含水率的时空合格率大部分达到了60%以上,尤其是模拟深层土壤含水率的合格率较高;模拟评估淮北地区2、5、6月为中等干旱,3、4、7月为轻度干旱,在大部分地区模拟的干旱等级在干暖季略偏高,湿季略偏低.

  16. Performance Tests of Snow-Related Variables Over the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayas Using a New Version of NASA GEOS-5 Land Surface Model that Includes the Snow Darkening Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasunari, Tppei J.; Lau, K.-U.; Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, Max; Mahanama, Sarith; Dasilva, Arlindo M.; Colarco, Peter R.

    2011-01-01

    The snow darkening effect, i.e. the reduction of snow albedo, is caused by absorption of solar radiation by absorbing aerosols (dust, black carbon, and organic carbon) deposited on the snow surface. This process is probably important over Himalayan and Tibetan glaciers due to the transport of highly polluted Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). This effect has been incorporated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric transport model. The Catchment land surface model (LSM) used in GEOS-5 considers 3 snow layers. Code was developed to track the mass concentration of aerosols in the three layers, taking into account such processes as the flushing of the compounds as liquid water percolates through the snowpack. In GEOS-5, aerosol emissions, transports, and depositions are well simulated in the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GO CART) module; we recently made the connection between GOCART and the GEOS-5 system fitted with the revised LSM. Preliminary simulations were performed with this new system in "replay" mode (i.e., with atmospheric dynamics guided by reanalysis) at 2x2.5 degree horizontal resolution, covering the period 1 November 2005 - 31 December 2009; we consider the final three years of simulation here. The three simulations used the following variants of the LSM: (1) the original Catchment LSM with a fixed fresh snowfall density of 150 kg m-3 ; (2) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code, used here without aerosol deposition but with changes in density formulation and melting water effect on snow specific surface area, (3) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code as same as (2) but with fixed aerosol deposition rates (computed from GOCART values averaged over the Tibetan Plateau domain [Ion.: 60-120E; lat.: 20-50N] during March-May 2008) applied to all grid points at every time step. For (2) and (3), the same setting on the fresh snowfall density as in (1

  17. Potential and Challenges of Low-Cost and High-Tech Crowd-sensing Approaches in Hydrometeorology for Better Water Resources Management - Insights and Learnings from the Global iMoMo Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegfried, Tobias

    2016-04-01

    In developing and transition countries and despite significant global investments in hydrometeorology, data on water remain scarce/fragmented. One key reason is that traditional sensing in hydrology, hydro- and agro-meteorology does not scale because of high investment costs and difficult maintenance of traditional technology, esp. in remote and/or poor regions. Even where there are data, these are often difficult to access and interpret for local stakeholders due outdated data transmission and the lack of access to modern tools for data management/analysis/synthesis and exchange. In recent years, there have been substantial technology developments in environmental sensing and mobile communication technology that enable the application and deployment of affordable and scalable high-tech solutions for better water monitoring at different scales (local to transboundary levels). The WMO is acknowledging and promoting the potential for application of these technologies. One key aspect is to anchor these technologies in local communities that perform crowd-sensing tasks on a regular basis. The merits as well as challenges (including introduction of human factor, less accuracy as compared to traditional sensing, intermittency of data, …) of such approaches will be discussed in the context of the WMO-led Global iMoMo Initiative and its numerous activities on the ground in Eastern and Southern Africa as well as in Central Asia.

  18. Lattice Solid/Boltzmann Microscopic Model to Simulate Solid/Fluid Systems-A Tool to Study Creation of Fluid Flow Networks for Viable Deep Geothermal Energy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peter Mora; Yucang Wang; Fernando Alonso-Marroquin

    2015-01-01

    SUMMARY:Realizing the potential of geothermal energy as a cheap, green, sustainable resource to provide for the planet’s future energy demands that a key geophysical problem be solved first:how to develop and maintain a network of multiple fluid flow pathways for the time required to deplete the heat within a given region. We present the key components for micro-scale particle-based nu-merical modeling of hydraulic fracture, and fluid and heat flow in geothermal reservoirs. They are based on the latest developments of ESyS-Particle—the coupling of the lattice solid model (LSM) to simulate the nonlinear dynamics of complex solids with the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) ap-plied to the nonlinear dynamics of coupled fluid and heat flow in the complex solid-fluid system. The coupled LSM/LBM can be used to simulate development of fracture systems in discontinuous media, elastic stress release, fluid injection and the consequent slip at joint surfaces, and hydraulic fractur-ing; heat exchange between hot rocks and water within flow pathways created through hydraulic fracturing;and fluid flow through complex, narrow, compact and gouge-or powder-filled fracture and joint systems. We demonstrate the coupled LSM/LBM to simulate the fundamental processes listed above, which are all components for the generation and sustainability of the hot-fractured rock geothermal energy fracture systems required to exploit this new green-energy resource.

  19. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...... to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and recipitation between the two models are included...

  20. Predictive models for population performance on real biological fitness landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, William; Wedge, David C; Platt, Mark; Kell, Douglas B; Knowles, Joshua

    2010-09-01

    Directed evolution, in addition to its principal application of obtaining novel biomolecules, offers significant potential as a vehicle for obtaining useful information about the topologies of biomolecular fitness landscapes. In this article, we make use of a special type of model of fitness landscapes-based on finite state machines-which can be inferred from directed evolution experiments. Importantly, the model is constructed only from the fitness data and phylogeny, not sequence or structural information, which is often absent. The model, called a landscape state machine (LSM), has already been used successfully in the evolutionary computation literature to model the landscapes of artificial optimization problems. Here, we use the method for the first time to simulate a biological fitness landscape based on experimental evaluation. We demonstrate in this study that LSMs are capable not only of representing the structure of model fitness landscapes such as NK-landscapes, but also the fitness landscape of real DNA oligomers binding to a protein (allophycocyanin), data we derived from experimental evaluations on microarrays. The LSMs prove adept at modelling the progress of evolution as a function of various controlling parameters, as validated by evaluations on the real landscapes. Specifically, the ability of the model to 'predict' optimal mutation rates and other parameters of the evolution is demonstrated. A modification to the standard LSM also proves accurate at predicting the effects of recombination on the evolution.

  1. 斑块组成对晚期药物支架贴壁不良影响的虚拟组织学血管内超声研究%Effect of plaque compositions on LSM after drug-eluting stent implantation : A virtual histology study on IVUS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    迟云鹏; 郭成军; 吴小凡; 杨娅; 何东方; 赵林; 卢春山

    2013-01-01

    目的 探讨基线斑块组成对药物洗脱支架(drug-eluting stent,DES)置入术后晚期支架贴壁不良(late stent malapposition,LSM)的影响.方法 入选不稳定性心绞痛患者76例(113处病变)行冠状动脉原位病变DES置入及基线和随访虚拟组织学血管内超声检查,分为LSM组11例和无LSM组65例.结果 11例患者有16处(14.2%)病变,随访时发现LSM.不同DES比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05).LSM组糖尿病(63.6% vs29.2%,P<0.05)、支架长度[(29.4±5.5)mm vs (26.2±6.0)mm,P<0.05]、坏死核心体积[(29.8±14.0)mm3 vs(21.4±9.5)mm3,P<0.01]及坏死核心体积百分比[(26.5±6.6)% vs (20.1±6.6)%,P<0.01]均明显高于无LSM组.多因素回归分析显示,坏死核心体积百分比(OR=1.144,95%CI:1.052~1.243,P=0.002)和糖尿病(OR=3.829,95%CI:1.158~12.663,P=0.028)是LSM的独立预测因素.结论 病变坏死核心成分和糖尿病与不稳定性心绞痛DES置入术后LSM形成有关.

  2. The use of radar in hydrological modeling in the Czech Republic – case studies of flash floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Šálek

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Flash flood induced by severe convection is the hydrometeorological phenomenon that is very difficult to forecast. However, the implementation of radar measurements, especially radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE and/or radar-based quantitative Precipitation Nowcast (QPN can improve this situation. If the radar is able to capture the development of severe convection and can produce reasonably accurate QPE in short time intervals (e.g. 10 min, then it can be used also with hydrological model. A hydrological model named Hydrog was used for investigation of simulation and possible forecasts of two flash floods that took place in the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2003. The precipitation input consisted of mean-field-bias-adjusted or original radar 10-min estimates along with quantitative precipitation nowcasts up to 2 h based on COTREC method (extrapolation. Taking into account all the limited predictability of the severe convection development and the errors of the radar-based precipitation estimates, the aim of the simulations was to find out to what extend the hydrometeorological prediction system, specifically tuned for these events, was able to forecast a the flash floods. As assumed, the hydrometeorological simulations of the streamflow forecasts lagged behind the actual development but there is still some potential for successful warning, especially for areas where the flood hits lately.

  3. Aggregating Hydrometeorological Data from International Monitoring Networks Across Earth's Largest Lake System to Quantify Uncertainty in Historical Water Budget Records, Improve Regional Water Budget Projections, and Differentiate Drivers Behind a Recent Record-Setting Surge in Water Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Bruxer, J.; Smith, J.; Hunter, T.; Fortin, V.; Clites, A. H.; Durnford, D.; Qian, S.; Seglenieks, F.

    2015-12-01

    Resolving and projecting the water budget of the North American Great Lakes basin (Earth's largest lake system) requires aggregation of data from a complex array of in situ monitoring and remote sensing products that cross an international border (leading to potential sources of bias and other inconsistencies), and are relatively sparse over the surfaces of the lakes themselves. Data scarcity over the surfaces of the lakes is a particularly significant problem because, unlike Earth's other large freshwater basins, the Great Lakes basin water budget is (on annual scales) comprised of relatively equal contributions from runoff, over-lake precipitation, and over-lake evaporation. Consequently, understanding drivers behind changes in regional water storage and water levels requires a data management framework that can reconcile uncertainties associated with data scarcity and bias, and propagate those uncertainties into regional water budget projections and historical records. Here, we assess the development of a historical hydrometeorological database for the entire Great Lakes basin with records dating back to the late 1800s, and describe improvements that are specifically intended to differentiate hydrological, climatological, and anthropogenic drivers behind recent extreme changes in Great Lakes water levels. Our assessment includes a detailed analysis of the extent to which extreme cold winters in central North America in 2013-2014 (caused by the anomalous meridional upper air flow - commonly referred to in the public media as the "polar vortex" phenomenon) altered the thermal and hydrologic regimes of the Great Lakes and led to a record setting surge in water levels between January 2014 and December 2015.

  4. Modeling sugar cane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Valade

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested

  5. Modeling sugarcane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Caubel, A.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

    2014-06-01

    Agro-land surface models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugarcane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of partial ranked correlation coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input

  6. Modeling sugar cane yield with a process-based model from site to continental scale: uncertainties arising from model structure and parameter values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Huth, N.; Marin, F.; Martiné, J.-F.

    2014-01-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the integration of specific crop processes into large-scale generic land surface models that allow calculating the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum. When developing agro-LSM models, a particular attention must be given to the effects of crop phenology and management on the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty of Agro-LSM models is related to their usually large number of parameters. In this study, we quantify the parameter-values uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS, using a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Réunion and Brazil. In ORCHIDEE-STICS, two models are chained: STICS, an agronomy model that calculates phenology and management, and ORCHIDEE, a land surface model that calculates biomass and other ecosystem variables forced by STICS' phenology. First, the parameters that dominate the uncertainty of simulated biomass at harvest date are determined through a screening of 67 different parameters of both STICS and ORCHIDEE on a multi-site basis. Secondly, the uncertainty of harvested biomass attributable to those most sensitive parameters is quantified and specifically attributed to either STICS (phenology, management) or to ORCHIDEE (other ecosystem variables including biomass) through distinct Monte-Carlo runs. The uncertainty on parameter values is constrained using observations by calibrating the model independently at seven sites. In a third step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the most sensitive parameters to investigate their effects at continental scale. A Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used to quantify the sensitivity of harvested biomass to input

  7. Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, Jason; Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Robertson, Franklin; Kirtman, Ben

    2016-07-01

    The skill of North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts in East Africa (EA), which encompasses one of the most food and water insecure areas of the world, is evaluated using deterministic, categorical, and probabilistic evaluation methods. The skill is estimated for all three primary growing seasons: March-May (MAM), July-September (JAS), and October-December (OND). It is found that the precipitation forecast skill in this region is generally limited and statistically significant over only a small part of the domain. In the case of MAM (JAS) [OND] season it exceeds the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of equatorial EA (Northern Ethiopia) [equatorial EA] for up to 2 (5) [5] months lead. Temperature forecast skill is generally much higher than precipitation forecast skill (in terms of deterministic and probabilistic skill scores) and statistically significant over a majority of the region. Over the region as a whole, temperature forecasts also exhibit greater reliability than the precipitation forecasts. The NMME ensemble forecasts are found to be more skillful and reliable than the forecast from any individual model. The results also demonstrate that for some seasons (e.g. JAS), the predictability of precipitation signals varies and is higher during certain climate events (e.g. ENSO). Finally, potential room for improvement in forecast skill is identified in some models by comparing homogeneous predictability in individual NMME models with their respective forecast skill.

  8. Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of hydrometeorological extremes over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, Jason B.; Hoell. Andrew,; Funk, Chris; Robertson, Franklin R.; Kirtmann, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    The skill of North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts in East Africa (EA), which encompasses one of the most food and water insecure areas of the world, is evaluated using deterministic, categorical, and probabilistic evaluation methods. The skill is estimated for all three primary growing seasons: March–May (MAM), July–September (JAS), and October–December (OND). It is found that the precipitation forecast skill in this region is generally limited and statistically significant over only a small part of the domain. In the case of MAM (JAS) [OND] season it exceeds the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of equatorial EA (Northern Ethiopia) [equatorial EA] for up to 2 (5) [5] months lead. Temperature forecast skill is generally much higher than precipitation forecast skill (in terms of deterministic and probabilistic skill scores) and statistically significant over a majority of the region. Over the region as a whole, temperature forecasts also exhibit greater reliability than the precipitation forecasts. The NMME ensemble forecasts are found to be more skillful and reliable than the forecast from any individual model. The results also demonstrate that for some seasons (e.g. JAS), the predictability of precipitation signals varies and is higher during certain climate events (e.g. ENSO). Finally, potential room for improvement in forecast skill is identified in some models by comparing homogeneous predictability in individual NMME models with their respective forecast skill.

  9. SPECIAL SESSION: (H21) on Global Precipitation Mission for Hydrology and Hydrometeorology. Sampling-Error Considerations for GPM-Era Rainfall Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The proposed Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) builds on the success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), offering a constellation of microwave-sensor-equipped smaller satellites in addition to a larger, multiply-instrumented "mother" satellite that will include an improved precipitation radar system to which the precipitation estimates of the smaller satellites can be tuned. Coverage by the satellites will be nearly global rather than being confined as TRMM was to lower latitudes. It is hoped that the satellite constellation can provide observations at most places on the earth at least once every three hours, though practical considerations may force some compromises. The GPM system offers the possibility of providing precipitation maps with much better time resolution than the monthly averages around which TRMM was planned, and therefore opens up new possibilities for hydrology and data assimilation into models. In this talk, methods that were developed for estimating sampling error in the rainfall averages that TRMM is providing will be used to estimate sampling error levels for GPM-era configurations. Possible impacts on GPM products of compromises in the sampling frequency will be discussed.

  10. Evaluation of the JULES land surface model in simulating catchment hydrology in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. C. MacKellar

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models (LSMs are advanced tools which can be used to estimate energy, water and biogeochemical exchanges at regional scales. The inclusion of a river flow routing module in an LSM allows for the simulation of river discharge from a catchment and offers an approach to evaluate the response of the system to variations in climate and land-use, which can provide useful information for regional water resource management. This study offers insight into some of the pragmatic considerations of applying an LSM over a regional domain in Southern Africa. The objectives are to identify key parameter sensitivities and investigate differences between two runoff production schemes in physically contrasted catchments. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES LSM was configured for a domain covering Southern Africa at a 0.5° resolution. The model was forced with meteorological input from the WATCH Forcing Data for the period 1981–2001 and sensitivity to various model configurations and parameter settings were tested. Both the PDM and TOPMODEL sub-grid scale runoff generation schemes were tested for parameter sensitivities, with the evaluation focussing on simulated river discharge in sub-catchments of the Orange, Okavango and Zambezi rivers. It was found that three catchments respond differently to the model configurations and there is no single runoff parameterization scheme or parameter values that yield optimal results across all catchments. The PDM scheme performs well in the upper Orange catchment, but poorly in the Okavango and Zambezi, whereas TOPMODEL grossly underestimates discharge in the upper Orange and shows marked improvement over PDM for the Okavango and Zambezi. A major shortcoming of PDM is that it does not realistically represent subsurface runoff in the deep, porous soils typical of the Okavango and Zambezi headwaters. The dry-season discharge in these catchments is therefore not replicated by PDM. TOPMODEL, however

  11. Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

    2012-12-01

    Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

  12. Hydrometeorology and basal sliding on the Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, USA: Evidence for seasonal, diurnal, and event-scale glacier velocity fluctuations due to varying meltwater inputs and precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, W. H.; Anderson, R. S.; Pettit, E. C.; Rajaram, H.

    2013-12-01

    We examine GPS-derived glacier ice surface velocities along with on- and near-glacier hydrometeorologic data to investigate the linkage between subglacial hydrology and basal sliding on the Kennicott Glacier in southeastern Alaska. Connections between ice dynamics and glacier hydrology remain poorly understood, yet are critical for understanding and forecasting modern sea level rise. In addition, basal sliding is an important process in glacial erosion and, therefore, alpine landscape evolution. We differentially process 30-second GPS data at four monuments along the glacier centerline over the 2012 and 2013 melt seasons. In addition, we overwinter one GPS monument on the glacier, allowing us to observe glacier behavior through a full annual cycle. We monitor stage on ice-marginal lakes, supraglacial streams, and the outlet river with pressure transducers and timelapse cameras. In both years we observe complex early season hydrologic behavior, with a ice-marginal lake draining and filling many times before emptying for the season. This likely records the interplay between varying melt inputs and the evolution of the glacier's ability to transmit flow subglacially. Concurrent with these stage variations, we observe large diurnal velocity fluctuations superimposed on a sustained increase in glacier velocity, likely reflecting the glacier's sensitivity to melt inputs in the early season. In 2012, we observe glacier velocity during the annual outburst flood of Hidden Creek Lake, which drains ~25×106 m3 of water beneath the Kennicott Glacier. The flood hydrograph from an ice-marginal lake shows remarkable consistency from year to year despite differences in the timing of the flood and meteorology leading up to the jökulhlaup. As the flood wave passes through the glacier, ice surface velocity increases from ~0.3 m d-1 to ~1.5 m d-1 for a short time. We see speedups of a similar magnitude in autumn 2012 that appear to correlate precipitation events. In addition, we

  13. Cross-validation of satellite products over France through their integration into a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Barbu, Alina; Carrer, Dominique; Meurey, Catherine

    2014-05-01

    Long (more than 30 years) time series of satellite-derived products over land are now available. They concern Essential Climate Variables (ECV) such as LAI, FAPAR, surface albedo, and soil moisture. The direct validation of such Climate Data Records (CDR) is not easy, as in situ observations are limited in space and time. Therefore, indirect validation has a key role. It consists in comparing the products with similar preexisting products derived from satellite observations or from land surface model (LSM) simulations. The most advanced indirect validation technique consists in integrating the products into a LSM using a data assimilation scheme. The obtained reanalysis accounts for the synergies of the various upstream products and provides statistics which can be used to monitor the quality of the assimilated observations. Meteo-France develops the ISBA-A-gs generic LSM able to represent the diurnal cycle of the surface fluxes together with the seasonal, interannual and decadal variability of the vegetation biomass. The LSM is embedded in the SURFEX modeling platform together with a simplified extended Kalman filter. These tools form a Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS). The current version of the LDAS assimilates SPOT-VGT LAI and ASCAT surface soil moisture (SSM) products over France (8km x 8km), and a passive monitoring of albedo, FAPAR and Land Surface temperature (LST) is performed (i.e., the simulated values are compared with the satellite products). The LDAS-France system is used in the European Copernicus Global Land Service (http://land.copernicus.eu/global/) to monitor the quality of upstream products. The LDAS generates statistics whose trends can be analyzed in order to detect possible drifts in the quality of the products: (1) for LAI and SSM, metrics derived from the active monitoring (i.e. assimilation) such as innovations (observations vs. model forecast), residuals (observations vs. analysis), and increments (analysis vs. model forecast) ; (2

  14. Logarithmic superconformal minimal models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Paul A.; Rasmussen, Jørgen; Tartaglia, Elena

    2014-05-01

    The higher fusion level logarithmic minimal models {\\cal LM}(P,P';n) have recently been constructed as the diagonal GKO cosets {(A_1^{(1)})_k\\oplus (A_1^ {(1)})_n}/ {(A_1^{(1)})_{k+n}} where n ≥ 1 is an integer fusion level and k = nP/(P‧- P) - 2 is a fractional level. For n = 1, these are the well-studied logarithmic minimal models {\\cal LM}(P,P')\\equiv {\\cal LM}(P,P';1). For n ≥ 2, we argue that these critical theories are realized on the lattice by n × n fusion of the n = 1 models. We study the critical fused lattice models {\\cal LM}(p,p')_{n\\times n} within a lattice approach and focus our study on the n = 2 models. We call these logarithmic superconformal minimal models {\\cal LSM}(p,p')\\equiv {\\cal LM}(P,P';2) where P = |2p - p‧|, P‧ = p‧ and p, p‧ are coprime. These models share the central charges c=c^{P,P';2}=\\frac {3}{2}\\big (1-{2(P'-P)^2}/{P P'}\\big ) of the rational superconformal minimal models {\\cal SM}(P,P'). Lattice realizations of these theories are constructed by fusing 2 × 2 blocks of the elementary face operators of the n = 1 logarithmic minimal models {\\cal LM}(p,p'). Algebraically, this entails the fused planar Temperley-Lieb algebra which is a spin-1 Birman-Murakami-Wenzl tangle algebra with loop fugacity β2 = [x]3 = x2 + 1 + x-2 and twist ω = x4 where x = eiλ and λ = (p‧- p)π/p‧. The first two members of this n = 2 series are superconformal dense polymers {\\cal LSM}(2,3) with c=-\\frac {5}{2}, β2 = 0 and superconformal percolation {\\cal LSM}(3,4) with c = 0, β2 = 1. We calculate the bulk and boundary free energies analytically. By numerically studying finite-size conformal spectra on the strip with appropriate boundary conditions, we argue that, in the continuum scaling limit, these lattice models are associated with the logarithmic superconformal models {\\cal LM}(P,P';2). For system size N, we propose finitized Kac character formulae of the form q^{-{c^{P,P';2}}/{24}+\\Delta ^{P,P';2} _{r

  15. River Network Modeling Beyond Discharge at Gauges

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, C. H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Salas, F. R.; Whiteaker, T. L.; Maidment, D. R.; Tolle, K.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past two decades, the estimation of water flow in river networks within hydro-meteorological models has mostly focused on simulations of natural processes and on their verification at available river gauges. Despite valuable existing skills in hydrologic modeling the accounting for anthropogenic actions in current models remains limited. The emerging availability of datasets containing measured dam outflows and reported irrigation withdrawals motivates their inclusion into simulations of flow in river networks. However, the development of advanced river network models accounting for such datasets of anthropogenic influences requires a detailed data model and a thorough handling of the various data types, sources and time scales. This contribution details the development of a consistent data model suitable for accounting some observations of anthropogenic modifications of the surface water cycle and presents the impact of such inclusion on simulations using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID).

  16. Revising Hydrology of a Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Vine, Nataliya; Butler, Adrian; McIntyre, Neil; Jackson, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    Land Surface Models (LSMs) are key elements in guiding adaptation to the changing water cycle and the starting points to develop a global hyper-resolution model of the terrestrial water, energy and biogeochemical cycles. However, before this potential is realised, there are some fundamental limitations of LSMs related to how meaningfully hydrological fluxes and stores are represented. An important limitation is the simplistic or non-existent representation of the deep subsurface in LSMs; and another is the lack of connection of LSM parameterisations to relevant hydrological information. In this context, the paper uses a case study of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator) LSM applied to the Kennet region in Southern England. The paper explores the assumptions behind JULES hydrology, adapts the model structure and optimises the coupling with the ZOOMQ3D regional groundwater model. The analysis illustrates how three types of information can be used to improve the model's hydrology: a) observations, b) regionalized information, and c) information from an independent physics-based model. It is found that: 1) coupling to the groundwater model allows realistic simulation of streamflows; 2) a simple dynamic lower boundary improves upon JULES' stationary unit gradient condition; 3) a 1D vertical flow in the unsaturated zone is sufficient; however there is benefit in introducing a simple dual soil moisture retention curve; 4) regionalized information can be used to describe soil spatial heterogeneity. It is concluded that relatively simple refinements to the hydrology of JULES and its parameterisation method can provide a substantial step forward in realising its potential as a high-resolution multi-purpose model.

  17. Elaboration, characterisation and modelling of screen-printed La0.8Sr0.2MnO{sub 3} cathodes for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell; Elaboration, caracterisation et modelisation de cathode serigraphiee, La0.8Sr0.2MnO3, pour pile a combustible SOFC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caillol, N.

    2006-03-15

    The properties of LSM screen-printed cathodes on YSZ electrolytes and the modelling of oxygen reduction have been studied. A bibliographic review of published works on LSM and LSM/YSZ interface reveals the lack of consensus over the mechanism proposed between oxygen and LSM. The different theoretic models possible and their associated kinetic laws are presented to serve as the basis for the kinetic modelling. Microstructural characterizations proved the adaptability of the screen-printing technique for making electrodes. The layers are stable in time and well reproducible. Their microstructure is homogenous and regular with a porosity of 0.6. Physico-chemical characterizations were carried out. Infra-red spectrometry analysis and thermo-programmed desorption have shown the existence of different kinds of oxygen-adsorbed species on LSM powder. A calorimetric study has revealed a change in the quantity of heat released during oxygen adsorption as a function of temperature. By XPS analysis on screen-printed layers, important strontium segregation was observed depending on pressure, temperature and polarisation conditions. From electrochemical characterizations made by impedance spectroscopy, three resistive contributions have been identified. Only the low frequency contribution, which is the only pressure sensitive contribution, was considered to correspond to an electrode phenomenon. Following a methodical study of the different modelling hypothesis, a mechanism for the cathodic reaction was obtained. The proposed model is complex. It is composed of three conductivity paths running in parallel (two surface paths and one bulk path). These paths involve two different oxygen species and their preponderance depends on pressure, temperature and polarisation conditions. A study of water vapour influence completes this work, to understand its impact on the cathode electrical performance. The benefits brought by water vapour are not linked to a direct catalytic effect, as it

  18. Study on three dimensional electromagnetic model for permanent magnet linear synchronous motor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪旭东; 王兆安; 袁世鹰

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, with the non-salient pole permanent magnet linear synchronous motor (PMLSM)being cited, by using Fourier transform method and “slot-by-slot”, “pole -by-pole” current approach, a 3D electromagnetic field model of PMLSM is established. Special attention is paid to its structure and the influence of longitudinal and transverse end effect. The distribution of electromagnetic field of PMLSM can be obtained directly and promptly by using FFT algorithm. It can also be used for the analysis of other LSM.

  19. Data Management needs in Hydrometeorological Institutes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roschier, T.; Eriksson, P.

    2009-09-01

    Impacts of weather to the societies are growing due Climate Change. Also Societal Infrastructure is getting more vulnerable to weather. Therefore it is needed to improve weather services. The services itself must be easier to use and have more information, but it is important to have more accurate forecasts. When the forecasting time step is getting shorter and as well the forecasting grid denser, it is needed to have more observations with shorter time interval. When the observation data amount is growing, it is needed to have data management to take care of securing quality and archiving the data as well maintaining the observation networks. The use of the observation data can be divided into two categories: operational and climatolo0gical use. For operational use the latency (collecting data from station to the database and ready to use) is the most critical value, for example in Flash Flood cases. Another important issue is to have Real-Time Quality Control to get rid off false information from broken sensors. For climatological usage the quality and consistency of the data are the most important values. For both uses the reliability of the data flow from station to database is highly important. There are many tools and ways how to solve data management issues, so this study tries to draw the overall picture of the data management challenges and give general requirements and suggestions how to handle the issue.

  20. An evaluation of interface capturing methods in a VOF based model for multiphase flow of a non-Newtonian ceramic in tape casting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jabbari, Masoud; Bulatova, Regina; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the present study is to evaluate the different interface capturing methods as well as to find the best approach for flow modeling of the ceramic slurry in the tape casting process. The conventional volume of fluid (VOF) method with three different interpolation methods for interface ca...... it is used to investigate the flow of a La0.85Sr0.15MnO3 (LSM) ceramic slurry modeled with the Ostwald de Waele power law. Results of the modeling are compared with corresponding experimental data and good agreement is found. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved....

  1. Artificial neural network modeling using clinical and knowledge independent variables predicts salt intake reduction behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isma'eel, Hussain A; Sakr, George E; Almedawar, Mohamad M; Fathallah, Jihan; Garabedian, Torkom; Eddine, Savo Bou Zein; Nasreddine, Lara; Elhajj, Imad H

    2015-06-01

    High dietary salt intake is directly linked to hypertension and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Predicting behaviors regarding salt intake habits is vital to guide interventions and increase their effectiveness. We aim to compare the accuracy of an artificial neural network (ANN) based tool that predicts behavior from key knowledge questions along with clinical data in a high cardiovascular risk cohort relative to the least square models (LSM) method. We collected knowledge, attitude and behavior data on 115 patients. A behavior score was calculated to classify patients' behavior towards reducing salt intake. Accuracy comparison between ANN and regression analysis was calculated using the bootstrap technique with 200 iterations. Starting from a 69-item questionnaire, a reduced model was developed and included eight knowledge items found to result in the highest accuracy of 62% CI (58-67%). The best prediction accuracy in the full and reduced models was attained by ANN at 66% and 62%, respectively, compared to full and reduced LSM at 40% and 34%, respectively. The average relative increase in accuracy over all in the full and reduced models is 82% and 102%, respectively. Using ANN modeling, we can predict salt reduction behaviors with 66% accuracy. The statistical model has been implemented in an online calculator and can be used in clinics to estimate the patient's behavior. This will help implementation in future research to further prove clinical utility of this tool to guide therapeutic salt reduction interventions in high cardiovascular risk individuals.

  2. Inverse modeling of soil characteristics from surface soil moisture observations: potential and limitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Loew

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models (LSM are widely used as scientific and operational tools to simulate mass and energy fluxes within the soil vegetation atmosphere continuum for numerous applications in meteorology, hydrology or for geobiochemistry studies. A reliable parameterization of these models is important to improve the simulation skills. Soil moisture is a key variable, linking the water and energy fluxes at the land surface. An appropriate parameterisation of soil hydraulic properties is crucial to obtain reliable simulation of soil water content from a LSM scheme. Parameter inversion techniques have been developed for that purpose to infer model parameters from soil moisture measurements at the local scale. On the other hand, remote sensing methods provide a unique opportunity to estimate surface soil moisture content at different spatial scales and with different temporal frequencies and accuracies. The present paper investigates the potential to use surface soil moisture information to infer soil hydraulic characteristics using uncertain observations. Different approaches to retrieve soil characteristics from surface soil moisture observations is evaluated and the impact on the accuracy of the model predictions is quantified. The results indicate that there is in general potential to improve land surface model parameterisations by assimilating surface soil moisture observations. However, a high accuracy in surface soil moisture estimates is required to obtain reliable estimates of soil characteristics.

  3. 2-way coupling the hydrological land surface model PROMET with the regional climate model MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most land surface hydrological models (LSHMs consider land surface processes (e.g. soil–plant–atmosphere interactions, lateral water flows, snow and ice in a spatially detailed manner. The atmosphere is considered as exogenous driver, neglecting feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs generally simulate land surface processes through coarse descriptions and spatial scales but include land–atmosphere interactions. What is the impact of the differently applied model physics and spatial resolution of LSHMs on the performance of RCMs? What feedback effects are induced by different land surface models? This study analyses the impact of replacing the land surface module (LSM within an RCM with a high resolution LSHM. A 2-way coupling approach was applied using the LSHM PROMET (1 × 1 km2 and the atmospheric part of the RCM MM5 (45 × 45 km2. The scaling interface SCALMET is used for down- and upscaling the linear and non-linear fluxes between the model scales. The change in the atmospheric response by MM5 using the LSHM is analysed, and its quality is compared to observations of temperature and precipitation for a 4 yr period from 1996 to 1999 for the Upper Danube catchment. By substituting the Noah-LSM with PROMET, simulated non-bias-corrected near-surface air temperature improves for annual, monthly and daily courses when compared to measurements from 277 meteorological weather stations within the Upper Danube catchment. The mean annual bias was improved from −0.85 to −0.13 K. In particular, the improved afternoon heating from May to September is caused by increased sensible heat flux and decreased latent heat flux as well as more incoming solar radiation in the fully coupled PROMET/MM5 in comparison to the NOAH/MM5 simulation. Triggered by the LSM replacement, precipitation overall is reduced; however simulated precipitation amounts are still of high uncertainty, both

  4. Modeling degradation in SOEC impedance spectra

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Søren Højgaard; Hauch, Anne; Knibbe, Ruth;

    2013-01-01

    Solid oxide cell (SOC) performance is limited by various processes. One way to investigate these processes is by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. In order to quantify and characterize the processes, an equivalent circuit can be used to model the SOC impedance spectra (IS). Unfortunately......, the optimal equivalent circuit is often unknown and to complicate matters further, several processes contribute to the SOC impedance - making detailed process characterization difficult. In this work we analyze and model a series of IS measured during steam electrolysis operation of an SOC. During testing......, degradation is only observed in the Ni/YSZ electrode and not in the electrolyte or the LSM/YSZ electrode. A batch fit of the differences between the IS shows that a modified Gerischer element provides a better fit to the Ni/YSZ electrode impedance than the frequently used RQ element - albeit neither...

  5. Toward a space-time scale framework for the study of everyday life activity's adaptation to hazardous hydro-meteorological conditions: Learning from the June 15th, 2010 flash flood event in Draguignan (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruin, Isabelle; Boudevillain, Brice; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Lutoff, Céline

    2013-04-01

    environmental perturbations requires an integrated approach, sensitive to the spatial and temporal dynamics of geophysical hazards and responses to them. Such integrated approaches of the Coupled Human and Natural System have been more common in the environmental change arena than in risk studies. Nevertheless, examining interactions between routine activity-travel patterns and hydro-meteorological dynamics in the context of flash flood event resulted in developing a space-time scale approach that brought new insights to vulnerability and risk studies. This scaling approach requires suitable data sets including information about the meteorological and local flooding dynamics, the perception of environmental cues, the changes in individuals' activity-travel patterns and the social interactions at the place and time where the actions were performed. Even if these types of data are commonly collected in various disciplinary research contexts, they are seldom collected all together and in the context of post-disaster studies. This paper describes the methodological developments of our approach and applies our data collection method to the case of the June 15th, 2010 flash flood events in the Draguignan area (Var, France). This flash flood event offers a typical example to study the relation between the flood dynamics and the social response in the context of a sudden degradation of the environment.

  6. The Effect of Errors in Snow Assimilation on Land Surface Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cosgrove, Brian A.; Houser, Paul R.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The accurate portrayal of the hydrological cycle is extremely important in land surface modeling. Central to this effort is the treatment of snow, as errors in the representation of this quantity can impact practically all other modeled quantities through alterations in the water and energy balances. Although land surface model (LSM) simulations can benefit from the assimilation of snow cover and snow depth observations, they can be negatively impacted if such observations contain errors or if a model bias exists in the simulation of surface or soil temperatures. Both cases may lead to excessive melting or growth of snow packs, and to large alterations in both the energy and water balances. Such problems in the snow assimilation process, made evident by the repeated melting and replenishing of snow pack over significant areas of the United States, exists in the Eta Data Assimilation System and is a product of the EDAS system's direct insertion assimilation of snow data. Occurring on a 24 hour cycle, the repeated melting infuses the soil column with a large quantity of water that upsets the hydrological cycle. In an effort to quantify the impacts of such errors in snow assimilation on water and energy budgets, a series of Mosaic LSM simulations were performed over the 12 month period covering October 1998 to October 1999.

  7. Prioritization of Disease Susceptibility Genes Using LSM/SVD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Lejun; Yang, Ronggen; Yan, Qin; Sun, Xiao

    2013-12-01

    Understanding the role of genetics in diseases is one of the most important tasks in the postgenome era. It is generally too expensive and time consuming to perform experimental validation for all candidate genes related to disease. Computational methods play important roles for prioritizing these candidates. Herein, we propose an approach to prioritize disease genes using latent semantic mapping based on singular value decomposition. Our hypothesis is that similar functional genes are likely to cause similar diseases. Measuring the functional similarity between known disease susceptibility genes and unknown genes is to predict new disease susceptibility genes. Taking autism as an instance, the analysis results of the top ten genes prioritized demonstrate they might be autism susceptibility genes, which also indicates our approach could discover new disease susceptibility genes. The novel approach of disease gene prioritization could discover new disease susceptibility genes, and latent disease-gene relations. The prioritized results could also support the interpretive diversity and experimental views as computational evidence for disease researchers.

  8. An inter-comparison of soil moisture data products from satellite remote sensing and a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Li; Hain, Christopher R.; Zhan, Xiwu; Anderson, Martha C.

    2016-06-01

    Significant advances have been achieved in generating soil moisture (SM) products from satellite remote sensing and/or land surface modeling with reasonably good accuracy in recent years. However, the discrepancies among the different SM data products can be considerably large, which hampers their usage in various applications. The bias of one SM product from another is well recognized in the literature. Bias estimation and spatial correction methods have been documented for assimilating satellite SM product into land surface and hydrologic models. Nevertheless, understanding the characteristics of each of these SM data products is required for many applications where the most accurate data products are desirable. This study inter-compares five SM data products from three different sources with each other, and evaluates them against in situ SM measurements over 14-year period from 2000 to 2013. Specifically, three microwave (MW) satellite based data sets provided by ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) (CCI-merged, -active and -passive products), one thermal infrared (TIR) satellite based product (ALEXI), and the Noah land surface model (LSM) simulations. The in-situ SM measurements are collected from the North American Soil Moisture Database (NASMD), which involves more than 600 ground sites from a variety of networks. They are used to evaluate the accuracies of these five SM data products. In general, each of the five SM products is capable of capturing the dry/wet patterns over the study period. However, the absolute SM values among the five products vary significantly. SM simulations from Noah LSM are more stable relative to the satellite-based products. All TIR and MW satellite based products are relatively noisier than the Noah LSM simulations. Even though MW satellite based SM retrievals have been predominantly used in the past years, SM retrievals of the ALEXI model based on TIR satellite observations demonstrate skills equivalent to all the MW satellite

  9. A tribo-mechanical analysis of PVA-based building-blocks for implementation in a 2-layered skin model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales Hurtado, M; de Vries, E G; Zeng, X; van der Heide, E

    2016-09-01

    Poly(vinyl) alcohol hydrogel (PVA) is a well-known polymer widely used in the medical field due to its biocompatibility properties and easy manufacturing. In this work, the tribo-mechanical properties of PVA-based blocks are studied to evaluate their suitability as a part of a structure simulating the length scale dependence of human skin. Thus, blocks of pure PVA and PVA mixed with Cellulose (PVA-Cel) were synthesised via freezing/thawing cycles and their mechanical properties were determined by Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA) and creep tests. The dynamic tests addressed to elastic moduli between 38 and 50kPa for the PVA and PVA-Cel, respectively. The fitting of the creep compliance tests in the SLS model confirmed the viscoelastic behaviour of the samples with retardation times of 23 and 16 seconds for the PVA and PVA-Cel, respectively. Micro indentation tests were also achieved and the results indicated elastic moduli in the same range of the dynamic tests. Specifically, values between 45-55 and 56-81kPa were obtained for the PVA and PVA-Cel samples, respectively. The tribological results indicated values of 0.55 at low forces for the PVA decreasing to 0.13 at higher forces. The PVA-Cel blocks showed lower friction even at low forces with values between 0.2 and 0.07. The implementation of these building blocks in the design of a 2-layered skin model (2LSM) is also presented in this work. The 2LSM was stamped with four different textures and their surface properties were evaluated. The hydration of the 2LSM was also evaluated with a corneometer and the results indicated a gradient of hydration comparable to the human skin.

  10. Prediction models of hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis B patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hye Won; Ahn, Sang Hoon

    2016-01-01

    Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Applying the same strategies for antiviral therapy and HCC surveillance to all chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients would be a burden worldwide. To properly manage CHB patients, it is necessary to identify and classify the risk for HCC development in such patients. Several HCC risk scores based on risk factors such as cirrhosis, age, male gender, and high viral load have been used, and have negative predictive values of ≥ 95%. Most of these have been derived from, and internally validated in, treatment-naïve Asian CHB patients. Herein, we summarized various HCC prediction models, including IPM (Individual Prediction Model), CU-HCC (Chinese University-HCC), GAG-HCC (Guide with Age, Gender, HBV DNA, Core Promoter Mutations and Cirrhosis-HCC), NGM-HCC (Nomogram-HCC), REACH-B (Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B), and Page-B score. To develop a noninvasive test of liver fibrosis, we also introduced a new scoring system that uses liver stiffness values from transient elastography, including an LSM (Liver Stiffness Measurement)-based model, LSM-HCC, and mREACH-B (modified REACH-B). PMID:27729738

  11. Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

    2016-04-01

    Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some

  12. Impact of Model and Observation Error on Assimilating Snow Cover Fraction Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Kristi R.

    Accurately modeling or observing snow cover fraction (SCF) estimates, which represent fractional snow cover area within a gridcell, can help with better understanding earth system dynamics, improving weather and climate prediction, and providing end-use water solutions. Seeking to obtain more accurate snowpack estimates, high resolution snow cover fraction observations are assimilated with different data assimilation (DA) methods within a land surface model (LSM). The LSM simulates snowpack states, snow water equivalent and snow depth, to obtain improved snowpack estimates known as the analysis. Data assimilation experiments are conducted for two mountainous areas where high spatial snow variability occurs, which can impact realistic snowpack representation for different hydrological and meteorological applications. Consequently, the experiments are conducted at higher model resolutions to better capture this variability. This study focuses on four key aspects of how assimilating SCF observations may improve snowpack estimates and impact the LSM overall. These include investigating the role of data assimilation method complexity, evaluating the impact of model and observational errors on snow state analysis estimates, improving the model's SCF representation for assimilation using observation operators, and examining subsequent model state and flux impacts when SCF observations are assimilated. A simpler direct insertion (DI) and a more complex ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation method were applied. The more complex method proved to be superior to the simpler one; however, this method required accounting for more realistic observational and model errors. Also, the EnKF method required an ensemble of model forecasts, in which bias in the ensemble generation was found and removed. Reducing this bias improved the model snowpack estimates. Detection and geolocation errors in the satellite-based snow cover fraction observations also contributed to degrading

  13. Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of

  14. Polyakov SU(3) extended linear $\\sigma$-model: Sixteen mesonic states in chiral phase-structure

    CERN Document Server

    Tawfik, Abdel Nasser

    2014-01-01

    The derivative of the grand potential in mean field approximation, non-strange and strange condensates and deconfinement phase-transition in thermal and dense hadronic medium are verified in extended SU(3) linear sigma-model (eLSM). In determining the chiral phase-transition, the chiral condensates sigma_x and sigma_y are analysed. The chiral mesonic phase-structures in temperature- and density-dependence are taken as free parameters to be fitted. These parameters are classified corresponding to scalar meson nonets; (pseudo)-scalar and (axial)-vector. For deconfinement phase-transition, effective Polyakov loop-potentials phi and phi^* are utilized. We investigated the in-medium effects on the masses of sixteen mesonic states states. The results are presented for two different forms for the effective Polyakov loop-potential and compared with other models with and without anomalous terms. The Polyakov loop potential in LSM has considerable effects on the chiral phase-transition in meson masses so that the resto...

  15. Open-Source Data Assimilation for Land Models and Multiscale Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoar, T. J.; Fox, A. M.; Zhang, Y.; Rosolem, R.; Toure, A. M.; Evans, B. J.; McCreight, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    The Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) has been coupled to severalland models including the Community Land Model (CLM),the Community Noah Land Surface Model (Noah LSM), WRF-Hydro, andthe CSIRO Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model. Many typesof observational data ranging from in-situ soil moisture probes totower-based fluxes to satellite estimates of moisture have been successfully assimilated to produce model-based estimates of quantities that are moreconsistent with the information content of the observations and yet havethe desirable spatio-temporal attributes of the gridded model output. Examples of assimilation research with each of the models will be shown. One of the challenges for land data assimilation systems is the collectionand integration of the observational data given multiple datastreams andcollection agencies. The challenges and considerations of ingesting andusing a wide variety of data in many different formats will be discussedwith a view of what is needed for a community resource.

  16. Development and evaluation of a physically-based lake level model for water resource management: A case study for Lake Buchanan, Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peirong Lin

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights: Different from traditional grid-based solutions, the framework is directly coupled on the vector-based NHDPlus dataset, which defines accurate hydrologic features such as rivers, dams, lakes and reservoirs. The resulting hybrid framework therefore allows for more flexibility in resolving “scaling-issues” between large-scale climate models and fine-scale applications. The presented hindcast results also provide insight into the influences of baseline LSM resolutions, initialization months, and lead times, which would ultimately help improve lake-level forecast skills.

  17. Runoff Simulation of Shitoukoumen Reservoir Basin Based on SWAT Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIE; Miao; LI; Hong-yan; LIU; Tie-juan; RU; Shi-rong

    2012-01-01

    [Objective]The study aimed to simulate the runoff of Shitoukoumen Reservoir basin by using SWAT model. [Method] Based on DEM elevation, land use type, soil type and hydrometeorological data, SWAT model, a distributed hydrological model was established to simulate the monthly runoff of Shitoukoumen Reservoir basin, and the years 2006 and 2010 were chosen as the calibration and validation period respectively. [Result] The simulation results indicated that SWAT model could be used to simulate the runoff of Shitoukoumen Reservoir basin, and the simulation effect was good. However, the response of the model to local rainstorm was not obvious, so that the actual runoff in June and July of 2010 was abnormally higher than the simulation value. [Conclusion] The research could provide theoretical references for the plan and management of water resources in Shitoukoumen Reservoir basin in future.

  18. Science-Grade Observing Systems as Process Observatories: Mapping and Understanding Nonlinearity and Multiscale Memory with Models and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, A. P.; Wilson, A. M.; Miller, D. K.; Tao, J.; Genereux, D. P.; Prat, O.; Petersen, W. A.; Brunsell, N. A.; Petters, M. D.; Duan, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Using the planet as a study domain and collecting observations over unprecedented ranges of spatial and temporal scales, NASA's EOS (Earth Observing System) program was an agent of transformational change in Earth Sciences over the last thirty years. The remarkable space-time organization and variability of atmospheric and terrestrial moist processes that emerged from the analysis of comprehensive satellite observations provided much impetus to expand the scope of land-atmosphere interaction studies in Hydrology and Hydrometeorology. Consequently, input and output terms in the mass and energy balance equations evolved from being treated as fluxes that can be used as boundary conditions, or forcing, to being viewed as dynamic processes of a coupled system interacting at multiple scales. Measurements of states or fluxes are most useful if together they map, reveal and/or constrain the underlying physical processes and their interactions. This can only be accomplished through an integrated observing system designed to capture the coupled physics, including nonlinear feedbacks and tipping points. Here, we first review and synthesize lessons learned from hydrometeorology studies in the Southern Appalachians and in the Southern Great Plains using both ground-based and satellite observations, physical models and data-assimilation systems. We will specifically focus on mapping and understanding nonlinearity and multiscale memory of rainfall-runoff processes in mountainous regions. It will be shown that beyond technical rigor, variety, quantity and duration of measurements, the utility of observing systems is determined by their interpretive value in the context of physical models to describe the linkages among different observations. Second, we propose a framework for designing science-grade and science-minded process-oriented integrated observing and modeling platforms for hydrometeorological studies.

  19. Improving land surface models with FLUXNET data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. -P. Wang

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing consensus that land surface models (LSMs that simulate terrestrial biosphere exchanges of matter and energy must be better constrained with data to quantify and address their uncertainties. FLUXNET, an international network of sites that measure the land surface exchanges of carbon, water and energy using the eddy covariance technique, is a prime source of data for model improvement. Here we outline a multi-stage process for "fusing" (i.e. linking LSMs with FLUXNET data to generate better models with quantifiable uncertainty. First, we describe FLUXNET data availability, and its random and systematic biases. We then introduce methods for assessing LSM model runs against FLUXNET observations in temporal and spatial domains. These assessments are a prelude to more formal model-data fusion (MDF. MDF links model to data, based on error weightings. In theory, MDF produces optimal analyses of the modelled system, but there are practical problems. We first discuss how to set model errors and initial conditions. In both cases incorrect assumptions will affect the outcome of the MDF. We then review the problem of equifinality, whereby multiple combinations of parameters can produce similar model output. Fusing multiple independent and orthogonal data provides a means to limit equifinality. We then show how parameter probability density functions (PDFs from MDF can be used to interpret model validity, and to propagate errors into model outputs. Posterior parameter distributions are a useful way to assess the success of MDF, combined with a determination of whether model residuals are Gaussian. If the MDF scheme provides evidence for temporal variation in parameters, then that is indicative of a critical missing dynamic process. A comparison of parameter PDFs generated with the same model from multiple FLUXNET sites can provide insights into the concept and validity of plant functional types (PFT – we would expect similar parameter

  20. Improving land surface models with FLUXNET data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Williams

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing consensus that land surface models (LSMs that simulate terrestrial biosphere exchanges of matter and energy must be better constrained with data to quantify and address their uncertainties. FLUXNET, an international network of sites that measure the land surface exchanges of carbon, water and energy using the eddy covariance technique, is a prime source of data for model improvement. Here we outline a multi-stage process for fusing LSMs with FLUXNET data to generate better models with quantifiable uncertainty. First, we describe FLUXNET data availability, and its random and systematic biases. We then introduce methods for assessing LSM model runs against FLUXNET observations in temporal and spatial domains. These assessments are a prelude to more formal model-data fusion (MDF. MDF links model to data, based on error weightings. In theory, MDF produces optimal analyses of the modelled system, but there are practical problems. We first discuss how to set model errors and initial conditions. In both cases incorrect assumptions will affect the outcome of the MDF. We then review the problem of equifinality, whereby multiple combinations of parameters can produce similar model output. Fusing multiple independent data provides a means to limit equifinality. We then show how parameter probability density functions (PDFs from MDF can be used to interpret model process validity, and to propagate errors into model outputs. Posterior parameter distributions are a useful way to assess the success of MDF, combined with a determination of whether model residuals are Gaussian. If the MDF scheme provides evidence for temporal variation in parameters, then that is indicative of a critical missing dynamic process. A comparison of parameter PDFs generated with the same model from multiple FLUXNET sites can provide insights into the concept and validity of plant functional types (PFT – we would expect similar parameter estimates among sites

  1. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2013-10-15

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

  2. Elaboration, caractérisation et modélisation de cathode sérigraphiée, La0.8Sr0.2MnO3, pour pile à combustible SOFC

    OpenAIRE

    Caillol, Noémie

    2006-01-01

    258 pages; The properties of LSM screen-printed cathodes on YSZ electrolytes and the modelling of oxygen reduction have been studied.A bibliographic review of published works on LSM and LSM/YSZ interface reveals the lack of consensus over the mechanism proposed between oxygen and LSM. The different theoretic models possible and their associated kinetic laws are presented to serve as the basis for thekinetic modelling.Microstructural characterisations proved the adaptability of the screen-prin...

  3. Impact of improved snowmelt modelling in a monthly hydrological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folton, Nathalie; Garcia, Florine

    2016-04-01

    The quantification and the management of water resources at the regional scale require hydrological models that are both easy to implement and efficient. To be reliable and robust, these models must be calibrated and validated on a large number of catchments that are representative of various hydro-meteorological conditions, physiographic contexts, and specific hydrological behavior (e.g. mountainous catchments). The GRLoiEau monthly model, with its simple structure and its two free parameters, answer our need of such a simple model. It required the development of a snow routine to model catchments with temporarily snow-covered areas. The snow routine developed here does not claim to represent physical snowmelt processes but rather to simulate them globally on the catchment. The snowmelt equation is based on the degree-day method which is widely used by the hydrological community, in particular in engineering studies (Etchevers 2000). A potential snowmelt (Schaefli et al. 2005) was computed, and the parameters of the snow routine were regionalized for each mountain area. The GRLoiEau parsimonious structure requires meteorological data. They come from the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system SAFRAN, which provides estimations of daily solid and liquid precipitations and temperatures on a regular square grid at the spatial resolution of 8*8 km², throughout France. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated using the formula by Oudin et al. (2005). The aim of this study is to improve the quality of monthly simulations for ungauged basins, in particular for all types of mountain catchments, without increasing the number of free parameters of the model. By using daily SAFRAN data, the production store and snowmelt can be run at a daily time scale. The question then arises whether simulating the monthly flows using a production function at a finer time step would improve the results. And by using the SAFRAN distributed climate series, a distributed approach

  4. Inter-comparison of two land-surface models applied at different scales and their feedbacks while coupled with a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Downstream models are often used in order to study regional impacts of climate and climate change on the land surface. For this purpose, they are usually driven offline (i.e., 1-way with results from regional climate models (RCMs. However, the offline approach does not allow for feedbacks between these models. Thereby, the land surface of the downstream model is usually completely different to the land surface which is used within the RCM. Thus, this study aims at investigating the inconsistencies that arise when driving a downstream model offline instead of interactively coupled with the RCM, due to different feedbacks from the use of different land surface models (LSM. Therefore, two physically based LSMs which developed from different disciplinary backgrounds are compared in our study: while the NOAH-LSM was developed for the use within RCMs, PROMET was originally developed to answer hydrological questions on the local to regional scale. Thereby, the models use different physical formulations on different spatial scales and different parameterizations of the same land surface processes that lead to inconsistencies when driving PROMET offline with RCM output. Processes that contribute to these inconsistencies are, as described in this study, net radiation due to land use related albedo and emissivity differences, the redistribution of this net radiation over sensible and latent heat, for example, due to different assumptions about land use impermeability or soil hydraulic reasons caused by different plant and soil parameterizations. As a result, simulated evapotranspiration, e.g., shows considerable differences of max. 280 mm yr−1. For a full interactive coupling (i.e., 2-way between PROMET and the atmospheric part of the RCM, PROMET returns the land surface energy fluxes to the RCM and, thus, provides the lower boundary conditions for the RCM subsequently. Accordingly, the RCM responses to the replacement of the LSM with overall

  5. Use of machine learning techniques for modeling of snow depth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Ayzel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Snow exerts significant regulating effect on the land hydrological cycle since it controls intensity of heat and water exchange between the soil-vegetative cover and the atmosphere. Estimating of a spring flood runoff or a rain-flood on mountainous rivers requires understanding of the snow cover dynamics on a watershed. In our work, solving a problem of the snow cover depth modeling is based on both available databases of hydro-meteorological observations and easily accessible scientific software that allows complete reproduction of investigation results and further development of this theme by scientific community. In this research we used the daily observational data on the snow cover and surface meteorological parameters, obtained at three stations situated in different geographical regions: Col de Porte (France, Sodankyla (Finland, and Snoquamie Pass (USA.Statistical modeling of the snow cover depth is based on a complex of freely distributed the present-day machine learning models: Decision Trees, Adaptive Boosting, Gradient Boosting. It is demonstrated that use of combination of modern machine learning methods with available meteorological data provides the good accuracy of the snow cover modeling. The best results of snow cover depth modeling for every investigated site were obtained by the ensemble method of gradient boosting above decision trees – this model reproduces well both, the periods of snow cover accumulation and its melting. The purposeful character of learning process for models of the gradient boosting type, their ensemble character, and use of combined redundancy of a test sample in learning procedure makes this type of models a good and sustainable research tool. The results obtained can be used for estimating the snow cover characteristics for river basins where hydro-meteorological information is absent or insufficient.

  6. modeling of modeling of reservoir in reservoir in artificial neu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    1 ,4 DEPARTMENT OF C. 2NATIONAL CENTRE FOR ... w, Hydropower dams, Hydro-meteorological variables, Artificial Neura eed correct .... flood and average rainfall value for two year return period using ANN ..... Australia. pp. 1099-1105.

  7. Expansion of the Real-Time SPoRT-Land Information System for NOAA/National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L; White, Kristopher D.

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL is running a real-time configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework (hereafter referred to as the "SPoRT-LIS"). Output from the real-time SPoRT-LIS is used for (1) initializing land surface variables for local modeling applications, and (2) displaying in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring at select NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices. The experimental CONUS run incorporates hourly quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from the National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi- Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) which will be transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Fall 2014.This paper describes the current and experimental SPoRT-LIS configurations, and documents some of the limitations still remaining through the advent of MRMS precipitation analyses in the SPoRT-LIS land surface model (LSM) simulations.

  8. Real-time remote sensing driven river basin modeling using radar altimetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Pereira-Cardenal

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Many river basins have a weak in-situ hydrometeorological monitoring infrastructure. However, water resources practitioners depend on reliable hydrological models for management purposes. Remote sensing (RS data have been recognized as an alternative to in-situ hydrometeorological data in remote and poorly monitored areas and are increasingly used to force, calibrate, and update hydrological models.

    In this study, we evaluate the potential of informing a river basin model with real-time radar altimetry measurements over reservoirs. We present a lumped, conceptual, river basin water balance modeling approach based entirely on RS and reanalysis data: precipitation was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, temperature from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF Operational Surface Analysis dataset and reference evapotranspiration was derived from temperature data. The Ensemble Kalman Filter was used to assimilate radar altimetry (ERS2 and Envisat measurements of reservoir water levels. The modeling approach was applied to the Syr Darya River Basin, a snowmelt-dominated basin with large topographical variability, several large reservoirs and scarce hydrometeorological data that is located in Central Asia and shared between 4 countries with conflicting water management interests.

    The modeling approach was tested over a historical period for which in-situ reservoir water levels were available. Assimilation of radar altimetry data significantly improved the performance of the hydrological model. Without assimilation of radar altimetry data, model performance was limited, probably because of the size and complexity of the model domain, simplifications inherent in model design, and the uncertainty of RS and reanalysis data. Altimetry data assimilation reduced the mean absolute error of the simulated reservoir water levels from 4.7 to 1.9 m, and

  9. Implementation of the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) in the NASA/NCAR finite-volume Global Climate Model (fvGCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radakovich, Jon D.; Wang, Guiling; Chern, Jiundar; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Nebuda, Sharon; Shen, Bo-Wen

    2002-01-01

    In this study, the NCAR CLM version 2.0 land-surface model was integrated into the NASA/NCAR fvGCM. The CLM was developed collaboratively by an open interagency/university group of scientists and based on well-proven physical parameterizations and numerical schemes that combine the best features of BATS, NCAR-LSM, and IAP94. The CLM design is a one-dimensional point model with 1 vegetation layer, along with sub-grid scale tiles. The features of the CLM include 10-uneven soil layers with water, ice, and temperature states in each soil layer, and five snow layers, with water flow, refreezing, compaction, and aging allowed. In addition, the CLM utilizes two-stream canopy radiative transfer, the Bonan lake model and topographic enhanced streamflow based on TOPMODEL. The DAO fvGCM uses a genuinely conservative Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian transport algorithm along with terrain- following Lagrangian control-volume vertical coordinates. The physical parameterizations are based on the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-2). For our purposes, the fvGCM was run at 2 deg x 2.5 deg horizontal resolution with 55 vertical levels. The 10-year climate from the fvGCM with CLM2 was intercompared with the climate from fvGCM with LSM, ECMWF and NCEP. We concluded that the incorporation of CLM2 did not significantly impact the fvGCM climate from that of LSM. The most striking difference was the warm bias in the CLM2 surface skin temperature over desert regions. We determined that the warm bias can be partially attributed to the value of the drag coefficient for the soil under the canopy, which was too small resulting in a decoupling between the ground surface and the canopy. We also discovered that the canopy interception was high compared to observations in the Amazon region. A number of experiments were then performed focused on implementing model improvements. In order to correct the warm bias, the drag coefficient for the soil under the canopy was considered a function of LAI (Leaf

  10. Radar Rainfall Estimates for Modeling Flood Response to Orographic Thunderstorms in the Central Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, N. S.; Smith, J. A.

    2001-12-01

    We examine the hydrometeorology and hydrology of extreme flooding from orographic convective systems in the central Appalachian region. Analyses of flood response are based on rainfall and discharge observations for major flood events along the western margin of the central Appalachians (16-17 May 1996, 18-19 July 1996, 30-31 July 1996, 28-29 June 1998, and 7-8 July 2001). A distributed hydrologic model is used to access flood response in Appalachian basins with diverse physiographic properties. High-resolution (1 km, 5 minutes) rainfall fields derived from WSR-88D radars in Charleston, West Virginia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania are used for model analyses. Cloud-to-ground lightning and the IFLOWs raingage network provide additional information for hydrometeorological analyses. Flood response is viewed in the context of land surface hydrologic processes and frequency of extreme precipitation events. Orographic convective systems in the Appalachians have produced some of the largest rainfall accumulations in the world for time intervals less than 6 hours and some of the largest unit discharge flood peaks for the U.S. east of the Mississippi River. The 18 July 1942 Smethport, Pennsylvania storm, for example, produced the world record rainfall accumulation of 780 mm in 4.5 hours.

  11. Real-time remote sensing driven river basin modelling using radar altimetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Pereira-Cardenal

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Many river basins have a weak in-situ hydrometeorological monitoring infrastructure. However, water resources practitioners depend on reliable hydrological models for management purposes. Remote sensing (RS data have been recognized as an alternative to in-situ hydrometeorological data in remote and poorly monitored areas and are increasingly used to force, calibrate, and update hydrological models.

    In this study, we evaluate the potential of informing a river basin model with real-time radar altimetry measurements over reservoirs. We present a lumped, conceptual, river basin water balance modelling approach based entirely on RS and reanalysis data: precipitation was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, temperature from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF Operational Surface Analysis dataset and reference evapotranspiration was derived from temperature data. The Ensemble Kalman Filter was used to assimilate radar altimetry (ERS2 and Envisat measurements of reservoir water levels. The modelling approach was applied to the Syr Darya River Basin, a snowmelt-dominated basin with large topographical variability, several large reservoirs and scarce hydrometeorological data that is shared between 4 countries with conflicting water management interests.

    The modelling approach was tested over a historical period for which in-situ reservoir water levels were available. Assimilation of radar altimetry data significantly improved the performance of the hydrological model. Without assimilation of radar altimetry data, model performance was limited, probably because of the size and complexity of the model domain, simplifications inherent in model design, and the uncertainty of RS and reanalysis data. Altimetry data assimilation reduced the mean error of the simulated reservoir water levels from 4.7 to 1.9 m, and overall model RMSE from 10.3 m to 6

  12. Release etch modeling analysis and the use of laser scanning microscopy for etch time prediction of micromachined structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matamis, George; Gogoi, Bishnu P.; Monk, David J.; McNeil, Andrew; Burrows, Veronica A.

    2000-08-01

    An alternative non-destructive analysis method using laser scanning microscopy (LSM) was used to study etch release distances in MEMS pressure sensor. The LSM method eliminates samples preparation and is easy to implement in a MEMS manufacturing environment. In this study, various diaphragm structures were etched using a highly concentrated HF based solution. Experimental etch data were obtained for both SiO2 and PSG films under these various structures. Both the height and the width of the sacrificial layer port/channel had a significant effect on etch rate for both films. As expected, a non-linear etch rate was obtained for both SiO2 and PSG films. Since the HF concentration changes over time in a manufacturing bath process, careful selection of processing time is required in order to fully release MEMS structures. Future theoretical modeling with the assistance of experimental data obtained in this study is being pursued to strengthen past work done by Eaton et al, Monk et al, and Liu et al.

  13. Global $SU(3)_C x SU(2)_L x U(1)_Y$ linear sigma model with Standard Model fermions: axial-vector Ward Takahashi identities, the absence of Higgs mass fine tuning, and the decoupling of certain heavy particles, due to the Goldstone theorem

    CERN Document Server

    Lynn, Bryan W

    2015-01-01

    This work is dedicated to the memory of R. Stora. In the Linear Sigma Model (LSM), towers of Ward-Takahashi Identities (WTI) relate both 1-Scalar-Particle-Irreducible Green's functions and I-SP-Reducible T-Matrix elements for external scalars (a doublet: H and 3 pseudoscalars, $\\pi$). We extend these WTI to the $SU(3)_CxSU(2)_LxU(1)_Y$ LSM including Standard Model (SM) fermions -- the ungauged Standard Model -- supplemented with right-handed neutrinos -- to extract powerful constraints on the effective Lagrangian. The crucial observation is that ultraviolet quadratic divergences (UVQD) and all other relevant operators, contribute only to mpi, a pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson (NGB) mass appearing in intermediate calculations. The Goldstone Theorem enforces m=0 exactly for the true NGB in the theory's spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) mode, causing all relevant operator contributions, to vanish identically to all loop orders! A weak-scale renormalized H pole mass and are therefore not fine-tuned (FT) -- they a...

  14. A MACRO-SCALE SEMI-DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL AND APPLICATION TO THE DATONG RIVER VALLEY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Zhi-feng; LIU Lu-liu; SHEN Zhen-yao; GORDON G. Huang

    2005-01-01

    A daily distributed hydrological model was developed using routine hydro-meteorological data on the basis of the raster DEM and land cover data.Then the model was used to model daily runoff of the Datong River Valley located in the upper catchment of the Yellow River Basin.The runoff comprises surface flow, subsurface flow and ground water flow.Evapotranspiration comprises canopy evaporation, snow sublimation and soil evapotranspiration.The infiltration to the soil was estimated with improved Green-Ampt model, and the potential evapotranspiration is estimated with Morton CRAE method, which only needs the routine meteorological data.Simulation results and the comparison with semi-distributed SLURP hydrological model show that the structure of the model presented herein is reasonable.

  15. Validating modeled soil moisture with in-situ data for agricultural drought monitoring in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, A.; Yatheendradas, S.; Jayanthi, H.; Funk, C. C.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

    2011-12-01

    The declaration of famine in Somalia on July 21, 2011 highlights the need for regional hydroclimate analysis at a scale that is relevant for agropastoral drought monitoring. A particularly critical and robust component of such a drought monitoring system is a land surface model (LSM). We are currently enhancing the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitoring activities by configuring a custom instance of NASA's Land Information System (LIS) called the FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS). Using the LIS Noah LSM, in-situ measurements, and remotely sensed data, we focus on the following question: How can Noah be best parameterized to accurately simulate hydroclimate variables associated with crop performance? Parameter value testing and validation is done by comparing modeled soil moisture against fortuitously available in-situ soil moisture observations in the West Africa. Direct testing and application of the FLDAS over African agropastoral locations is subject to some issues: [1] In many regions that are vulnerable to food insecurity ground based measurements of precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture are sparse or non-existent, [2] standard landcover classes (e.g., the University of Maryland 5 km dataset), do not include representations of specific agricultural crops with relevant parameter values, and phenologies representing their growth stages from the planting date and [3] physically based land surface models and remote sensing rain data might still need to be calibrated or bias-corrected for the regions of interest. This research aims to address these issues by focusing on sites in the West African countries of Mali, Niger, and Benin where in-situ rainfall and soil moisture measurements are available from the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Preliminary results from model experiments over Southern Malawi, validated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and maize yield data, show that the

  16. Modeling on Flash Flood Disaster Induced by Bed Load

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO Shuyou; LIU Xingnian; HUANG Er; YANG Keiun

    2008-01-01

    Flash floods result from a complex interaction among hydro-meteorological, hydrologi-cal, and hydraulic processes across various spatial and temporal scales. Sichuan Province suffers flash floods frequently owing to mountain weather and topography. A flash flood and gravel bed load transport are two key relative problems in mountain river engineering. Bed materials are often encountered in alternate scouring and deposition in mountain fluvial processes during a flash flood.In this circumstance, CRS-1 bed load numerical model jointly with scale physical model is em-ployed to predict water level and gravel bed scour and deposition for design of flood control dykes and flash flood disaster mitigation. A case study on the mechanism of a flash flood disaster in-duced by bed load transport for a hydropower station in Sichuan Province is conducted. Finally,suggestions to protect the hydropower station are proposed.

  17. Real-time remote sensing driven river basin modeling using radar altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Riegels, Niels; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2011-01-01

    and poorly monitored areas and are increasingly used to force, calibrate, and update hydrological models. In this study, we evaluate the potential of informing a river basin model with real-time radar altimetry measurements over reservoirs. We present a lumped, conceptual, river basin water balance modeling...... evapotranspiration was derived from temperature data. The Ensemble Kalman Filter was used to assimilate radar altimetry (ERS2 and Envisat) measurements of reservoir water levels. The modeling approach was applied to the Syr Darya River Basin, a snowmelt-dominated basin with large topographical variability, several...... large reservoirs and scarce hydrometeorological data that is located in Central Asia and shared between 4 countries with conflicting water management interests. The modeling approach was tested over a historical period for which in-situ reservoir water levels were available. Assimilation of radar...

  18. Application of snowmelt runoff model (SRM in mountainous watersheds: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shalamu ABUDU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The snowmelt runoff model (SRM has been widely used in simulation and forecast of streamflow in snow-dominated mountainous basins around the world. This paper presents an overall review of worldwide applications of SRM in mountainous watersheds, particularly in data-sparse watersheds of northwestern China. Issues related to proper selection of input climate variables and parameters, and determination of the snow cover area (SCA using remote sensing data in snowmelt runoff modeling are discussed through extensive review of literature. Preliminary applications of SRM in northwestern China have shown that the model accuracies are relatively acceptable although most of the watersheds lack measured hydro-meteorological data. Future research could explore the feasibility of modeling snowmelt runoff in data-sparse mountainous watersheds in northwestern China by utilizing snow and glacier cover remote sensing data, geographic information system (GIS tools, field measurements, and innovative ways of model parameterization.

  19. Developing a thermodynamic a conceptual model for the Itumbiara hydroelectric reservoir based on satellite and telemetric data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enner Herenio de Alcântara

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Aquatic systems continually respond to climatic conditions that vary over broad scales of space and time. The response of each water body to external conditions (hydro-meteorological processes is revealed in the first place by the thermal structures present in water body. Most lacustrine chemical, physical and biological processes are affected directly by lake hydrological (e.g. lake depth and thermal changes (e.g. seasonal stratification, and are thus, indirectly affected by climate variation. Understanding lake-climate system interactions is therefore of fundamental importance to evaluate the effects of climate change on limnological processes. Based on this, the objective of this work was to develop a thermodynamic conceptual model for the Itumbiara hydroelectric reservoir (Goiás State, Brazil. The developed methodology was based on the use of satellite imagery of moderate resolution that allow the computation of the water surface temperature from 2003 to 2008 (six years during the daytime and nighttime. The results showed the potential of the use of moderate resolution satellite data to study water surface temperature variability and to explain the main causes of this variability. The use of hydro-meteorological and bulk temperature collected by station and autonomous buoy, respectively, contributed to better understand the physical processes in the mixed depth of the reservoir. Also the results allow the elaboration of conceptual models for the thermodynamics of the Itumbiara reservoir.

  20. Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ferretti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available During the first Hymex campaign (5 September–6 November 2012 referred to as Special Observation Period (SOP-1, dedicated to heavy precipitation events and flash floods in Western Mediterranean, three Italian hydro-meteorological monitoring sites were activated: Liguria-Tuscany, North-Eastern Italy and Central Italy. The extraordinary deployment of advanced instrumentation, including instrumented aircrafts, and the use of several different operational weather forecast models has allowed an unprecedented monitoring and analysis of high impact weather events around the Italian hydro-meteorological sites. This activity has seen the strict collaboration between the Italian scientific and operational communities. In this paper, an overview of the Italian organization during the SOP-1 is provided, and selected Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs are described. A significant event for each Italian target area is chosen for this analysis: IOP2 (12–13 September 2012 in North-Eastern Italy, IOP13 (15–16 October 2012 in Central Italy and IOP19 (3–5 November 2012 in Liguria and Tuscany. For each IOP the meteorological characteristics, together with special observations and weather forecasts, are analyzed with the aim of highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the forecast modeling systems. Moreover, using one of the three events, the usefulness of different operational chains is highlighted.

  1. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements

    KAUST Repository

    Niu, Guo-Yue

    2011-06-24

    This first paper of the two-part series describes the objectives of the community efforts in improving the Noah land surface model (LSM), documents, through mathematical formulations, the augmented conceptual realism in biophysical and hydrological processes, and introduces a framework for multiple options to parameterize selected processes (Noah-MP). The Noah-MP\\'s performance is evaluated at various local sites using high temporal frequency data sets, and results show the advantages of using multiple optional schemes to interpret the differences in modeling simulations. The second paper focuses on ensemble evaluations with long-term regional (basin) and global scale data sets. The enhanced conceptual realism includes (1) the vegetation canopy energy balance, (2) the layered snowpack, (3) frozen soil and infiltration, (4) soil moisture-groundwater interaction and related runoff production, and (5) vegetation phenology. Sample local-scale validations are conducted over the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) site, the W3 catchment of Sleepers River, Vermont, and a French snow observation site. Noah-MP shows apparent improvements in reproducing surface fluxes, skin temperature over dry periods, snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth, and runoff over Noah LSM version 3.0. Noah-MP improves the SWE simulations due to more accurate simulations of the diurnal variations of the snow skin temperature, which is critical for computing available energy for melting. Noah-MP also improves the simulation of runoff peaks and timing by introducing a more permeable frozen soil and more accurate simulation of snowmelt. We also demonstrate that Noah-MP is an effective research tool by which modeling results for a given process can be interpreted through multiple optional parameterization schemes in the same model framework. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. How much does weather-driven vegetation dynamics matter in land surface modelling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingwersen, Joachim; Streck, Thilo

    2016-04-01

    Land surface models (LSM) are an essential part of weather and climate models as they provide the lower boundary condition for the atmospheric models. In state-of-the-art LSMs the seasonal vegetation dynamics is "frozen". The seasonal variation of vegetation state variables, such as leaf area index or green vegetation fraction, are prescribed in lookup tables. Hence, a year-by-year variation in the development of vegetation due to changing weather conditions cannot be considered. For climate simulations, this is obviously a severe drawback. The objective of the present study was to quantify the potential error in the simulation of land surface exchange processes resulting from "frozen" vegetation dynamics. For this purpose we simulated energy and water fluxes from a winter wheat stand and a maize stand in Southwest Germany. In a first set of simulations, six years (2010 to 2015) were simulated considering weather-driven vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we coupled the generic crop growth model GECROS with the NOAH-MP model (NOAHMP-GECROS). In a second set of simulations all vegetation-related state variables of the 2010 simulation were written to an external file and were used to overwrite the vegetation-related state variables of the simulations of the years 2011-2015. The difference between both sets was taken as a measure for the potential error introduced to the LSM due to the assumption of a "frozen" vegetation dynamics. We will present first results and discuss the impact of "frozen" vegetation dynamics on climate change simulations.

  3. Coupled model of INM-IO global ocean model, CICE sea ice model and SCM OIAS framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayburin, Ruslan; Rashit, Ibrayev; Konstantin, Ushakov; Vladimir, Kalmykov; Gleb, Dyakonov

    2015-04-01

    Status of coupled Arctic model of ocean and sea ice is presented. Model consists of INM IO global ocean component of high resolution, Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE sea ice model and a framework SCM OIAS for the ocean-ice-atmosphere-land coupled modeling on massively-parallel architectures. Model is currently under development at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Hydrometeorological Center (HMC) and P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (IO). Model is aimed at modeling of intra-annual variability of hydrodynamics in Arctic and. The computational characteristics of the world ocean-sea ice coupled model governed by SCM OIAS are presented. The model is parallelized using MPI technologies and currently can use efficiently up to 5000 cores. Details of programming implementation, computational configuration and physical phenomena parametrization are analyzed in terms of intercoupling complex. Results of five year computational experiment of sea ice, snow and ocean state evolution in Arctic region on tripole grid with horizontal resolution of 3-5 kilometers, closed by atmospheric forcing field from repeating "normal" annual course taken from CORE1 experiment data base are presented and analyzed in terms of the state of vorticity and warm Atlantic water expansion.

  4. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Zong-Liang

    2011-06-24

    The augmented Noah land surface model described in the first part of the two-part series was evaluated here over global river basins. Across various climate zones, global-scale tests can reveal a model\\'s weaknesses and strengths that a local-scale testing cannot. In addition, global-scale tests are more challenging than local- and catchment-scale tests. Given constant model parameters (e. g., runoff parameters) across global river basins, global-scale tests are more stringent. We assessed model performance against various satellite and ground-based observations over global river basins through six experiments that mimic a transition from the original Noah LSM to the fully augmented version. The model shows transitional improvements in modeling runoff, soil moisture, snow, and skin temperature, despite considerable increase in computational time by the fully augmented Noah-MP version compared to the original Noah LSM. The dynamic vegetation model favorably captures seasonal and spatial variability of leaf area index and green vegetation fraction. We also conducted 36 ensemble experiments with 36 combinations of optional schemes for runoff, leaf dynamics, stomatal resistance, and the β factor. Runoff schemes play a dominant and different role in controlling soil moisture and its relationship with evapotranspiration compared to ecological processes such as β the factor, vegetation dynamics, and stomatal resistance. The 36-member ensemble mean of runoff performs better than any single member over the world\\'s 50 largest river basins, suggesting a great potential of land-based ensemble simulations for climate prediction. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  5. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, a stochastic model is generated using the measured monthly water level data of the lake. The model is derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the data set. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. For the multiple-trend, the time series is first divided into homogeneous segments by means of SEGMENTER, segmentation software. Four segments are found meaningful practically each fitted with a trend line. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning future development in surrounding areas of the lake.

  6. A customized light sheet microscope to measure spatio-temporal protein dynamics in small model organisms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rieckher

    Full Text Available We describe a customizable and cost-effective light sheet microscopy (LSM platform for rapid three-dimensional imaging of protein dynamics in small model organisms. The system is designed for high acquisition speeds and enables extended time-lapse in vivo experiments when using fluorescently labeled specimens. We demonstrate the capability of the setup to monitor gene expression and protein localization during ageing and upon starvation stress in longitudinal studies in individual or small groups of adult Caenorhabditis elegans nematodes. The system is equipped to readily perform fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP, which allows monitoring protein recovery and distribution under low photobleaching conditions. Our imaging platform is designed to easily switch between light sheet microscopy and optical projection tomography (OPT modalities. The setup permits monitoring of spatio-temporal expression and localization of ageing biomarkers of subcellular size and can be conveniently adapted to image a wide range of small model organisms and tissue samples.

  7. The role of hidden ambiguities in the linear sigma model with fermions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiller, Brigitte [Centro de Fisica Teorica, Departamento de Fisica da Universidade de Coimbra, 3004-516 Coimbra (Portugal); Mota, A.L. [Departamento de Ciencias Naturais, Universidade Federal de Sao Joao del Rei, Sao Joao del Rei, MG (Brazil) and Departamento de Fisica Moderna, Faculdad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, Granada (Spain)]. E-mail: motaal@ufsj.edu.br; Nemes, M.C. [Centro de Fisica Teorica, Departamento de Fisica da Universidade de Coimbra, 3004-516 Coimbra (Portugal); Departamento de Fisica, Instituto de Ciencias Exactas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, BH, CEP 30161-970, MG (Brazil); Osipov, Alexander A. [Centro de Fisica Teorica, Departamento de Fisica da Universidade de Coimbra, 3004-516 Coimbra (Portugal); Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Laboratory of Nuclear Problems, 141980 Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Sampaio, Marcos [Departamento de Fisica, Instituto de Ciencias Exactas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, BH, CEP 30161-970, MG (Brazil)

    2006-04-17

    The U{sub L}(3)xU{sub R}(3) linear sigma model (LSM) with quark degrees of freedom is used to show that radiative corrections generate undetermined finite contributions. Their origin is related to surface terms which are differences between divergent integrals with the same degree of divergence. The technique used to detect these ambiguities is an implicit regularization on basic divergent integrals that do not depend on external momenta. We show that such contributions are absorbed by renormalization or fixed by symmetry requirements. The general expression for surface terms is derived. Renormalization group coefficients are calculated, as well as relevant observables for this model, such as f{sub {pi}}, f{sub {kappa}} and the pion and kaon form factors.

  8. SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL CATHODES: Polarization Mechanisms and Modeling of the Electrochemical Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleig, Jurgen

    2003-08-01

    Several recent experimental and numerical investigations have contributed to the improved understanding of the electrochemical mechanisms taking place at solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cathodes and yielded valuable information on the relationships between alterable parameters (geometry/material) and the cathodic polarization resistance. Efforts to reduce the polarization resistance in SOFCs can benefit from these results, and some important aspects of the corresponding studies are reviewed. Experimental results, particularly measurements using geometrically well-defined Sr-doped LaMnO3 (LSM) cathodes, are discussed. In regard to simulations, the different levels of sophistication used in SOFC electrode modeling studies are summarized and compared. Exemplary simulations of mixed conducting cathodes that show the capabilities and limits of different modeling levels are described.

  9. A Real-Time MODIS Vegetation Composite for Land Surface Models and Short-Term Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is producing real-time, 1- km resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) gridded composites over a Continental U.S. domain. These composites are updated daily based on swath data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor aboard the polar orbiting NASA Aqua and Terra satellites, with a product time lag of about one day. A simple time-weighting algorithm is applied to the NDVI swath data that queries the previous 20 days of data to ensure a continuous grid of data populated at all pixels. The daily composites exhibited good continuity both spatially and temporally during June and July 2010. The composites also nicely depicted high greenness anomalies that resulted from significant rainfall over southwestern Texas, Mexico, and New Mexico during July due to early-season tropical cyclone activity. The SPoRT Center is in the process of computing greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the MODIS NDVI data at the same spatial and temporal resolution for use in the NASA Land Information System (LIS). The new daily GVF dataset would replace the monthly climatological GVF database (based on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer [AVHRR] observations from 1992-93) currently available to the Noah land surface model (LSM) in both LIS and the public version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The much higher spatial resolution (1 km versus 0.15 degree) and daily updates based on real-time satellite observations have the capability to greatly improve the simulation of the surface energy budget in the Noah LSM within LIS and WRF. Once code is developed in LIS to incorporate the daily updated GVFs, the SPoRT Center will conduct simulation sensitivity experiments to quantify the impacts and improvements realized by the MODIS real-time GVF data. This presentation will describe the methodology used to develop the 1-km MODIS NDVI composites and

  10. What Can Data Assimilation Tell Us about Our Models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, G. S.

    2015-12-01

    Data assimilation is a process of combining information from imperfect models and imperfect observations. To the extent that models used for data assimilation are probabilistic to account for epistemic uncertainty, we expect data assimilation to attenuate the effect of model errors on estimates of hydrologic states and fluxes. Intuitively, if data assimilation can mitigate model deficiencies, we would expect it to be informative of the nature of these deficiencies. We address two related questions. The first is about how to store information gained via data assimilation into the structure of the model so that this information is not lost outside the period of observation. We show the general (theoretical) strategy for storing this information, and propose a practical algorithm based on the EnFK. Doing this results in improved forecasts of energy and carbon fluxes from land surface models, as well as improved estimates of streamflow in a rainfall-runoff model. Storing information in a model structure is done purely by statistical analysis of DA innovations, and so provides no insight about the adequacy of model hypotheses. We show that this type of insight can be gained by measuring how data assimilation changes the way information moves within the model. By treating the model as an information processing system, we can visualize explicitly how assimilating observations changes strengths and time-scales of couplings between modeled variables. The insight is that measuring Shannon-type information fluxes instead of mass and energy fluxes allows us to relate any variable with any other at any time-scale. We produce a concise set of statistics that are easily interpreted and directly highlight how DA effectively changes the way that the model behaves. We applied these techniques to the Noah LSM after assimilating both in situ (FluxNet, SCAN) and remote sensing (AMSR-E, MODIS) observations. Results indicate that major deficiencies in the way that Noah translates

  11. Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel F.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

    2017-04-01

    The land surface forms an essential part of the climate system. It interacts with the atmosphere through the exchange of water and energy and hence influences weather and climate, as well as their predictability. Correspondingly, the land surface model (LSM) is an essential part of any weather forecasting system. LSMs rely on partly poorly constrained parameters, due to sparse land surface observations. With the use of newly available land surface temperature observations, we show in this study that novel satellite-derived datasets help to improve LSM configuration, and hence can contribute to improved weather predictability. We use the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) and validate it comprehensively against an array of Earth observation reference datasets, including the new land surface temperature product. This reveals satisfactory model performance in terms of hydrology, but poor performance in terms of land surface temperature. This is due to inconsistencies of process representations in the model as identified from an analysis of perturbed parameter simulations. We show that HTESSEL can be more robustly calibrated with multiple instead of single reference datasets as this mitigates the impact of the structural inconsistencies. Finally, performing coupled global weather forecasts we find that a more robust calibration of HTESSEL also contributes to improved weather forecast skills. In summary, new satellite-based Earth observations are shown to enhance the multi-dataset calibration of LSMs, thereby improving the representation of insufficiently captured processes, advancing weather predictability and understanding of climate system feedbacks. Orth, R., E. Dutra, I. F. Trigo, and G. Balsamo (2016): Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-628

  12. Development of a land surface model with coupled snow and frozen soil physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Zhou, Jing; Qi, Jia; Sun, Litao; Yang, Kun; Tian, Lide; Lin, Yanluan; Liu, Wenbin; Shrestha, Maheswor; Xue, Yongkang; Koike, Toshio; Ma, Yaoming; Li, Xiuping; Chen, Yingying; Chen, Deliang; Piao, Shilong; Lu, Hui

    2017-06-01

    Snow and frozen soil are important factors that influence terrestrial water and energy balances through snowpack accumulation and melt and soil freeze-thaw. In this study, a new land surface model (LSM) with coupled snow and frozen soil physics was developed based on a hydrologically improved LSM (HydroSiB2). First, an energy-balance-based three-layer snow model was incorporated into HydroSiB2 (hereafter HydroSiB2-S) to provide an improved description of the internal processes of the snow pack. Second, a universal and simplified soil model was coupled with HydroSiB2-S to depict soil water freezing and thawing (hereafter HydroSiB2-SF). In order to avoid the instability caused by the uncertainty in estimating water phase changes, enthalpy was adopted as a prognostic variable instead of snow/soil temperature in the energy balance equation of the snow/frozen soil module. The newly developed models were then carefully evaluated at two typical sites of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) (one snow covered and the other snow free, both with underlying frozen soil). At the snow-covered site in northeastern TP (DY), HydroSiB2-SF demonstrated significant improvements over HydroSiB2-F (same as HydroSiB2-SF but using the original single-layer snow module of HydroSiB2), showing the importance of snow internal processes in three-layer snow parameterization. At the snow-free site in southwestern TP (Ngari), HydroSiB2-SF reasonably simulated soil water phase changes while HydroSiB2-S did not, indicating the crucial role of frozen soil parameterization in depicting the soil thermal and water dynamics. Finally, HydroSiB2-SF proved to be capable of simulating upward moisture fluxes toward the freezing front from the underlying soil layers in winter.

  13. Modeling and Observational Framework for Diagnosing Local Land-Atmosphere Coupling on Diurnal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Alonge, Charles; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2009-01-01

    Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during field experiments in the U. S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to the Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. Within this framework, the coupling established by each pairing of the available PBL schemes in WRF with the LSMs in LIS is evaluated in terms of the diurnal temperature and humidity evolution in the mixed layer. The co-evolution of these variables and the convective PBL is sensitive to and, in fact, integrative of the dominant processes that govern the PBL budget, which are synthesized through the use of mixing diagrams. Results show how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of PBL scheme and LSM varies across surface moisture regimes and can be quantified and evaluated against observations. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate

  14. Studying the Effect of Runoff Parameterization and Interaction between Atmosphere and Land Surface in Land Surface Schemes Used in NWP Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodamorad Poor, M.; Irannejad, P.

    2009-04-01

    Land Surface Schemes that is one of the most important components in climate and numerical weather prediction models (NWP) has concentrated on surface energy and water budgets. Water budget is the hydrologic core of the land surface schemes and it is presented as the precipitation which is divided into evapotranspiration, runoff and changing in soil moisture. It is also introduced by different parameterizations among land surface schemes. Since Runoff is the major component of the water budget, unrealistic simulation of it can have some effects on the other components used in water budget and hence on the laten heat flux between atmosphere and land surface. Different representations of runoff in NWP models are relatively simple because runoff is conceptually difficult to be parameterized. Regarding that topography has a major control on the distribution of soil moisture and runoff, the main objective in this study is to find the parameterization runoff which is better to be introduced in NWP models. The algorithm used in Simple TOP Model (SIMTOP) for runoff parameterization is put in NOAH LSM utilized in Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). In SIMTOP, surface and subsurface runoff are considered as exponential functions of water table depth, but in NOAH LSM runoff is produced by extra maximum soil infiltration. The SIMTOP is like TOPMODEL that implemented topographic information (expressed by topographic index) and the nature of soil (indicated by reducing hydraulic conductivity with soil depth). The SIMTOP is simpler than TOPMODEL because of reducing in parameters that are needed to be calibrated. The surface runoff is the sum of two components, the first generated by infiltration excess (Horton mechanism) and the second, referring to variable contributed area, by saturation excess (Dunn mechanism). The subsurface runoff is represented by topographic control, bottom drainage and saturation excess. Although the river routing is very important for

  15. Determination of Electrochemical Performance and Thermo-Mechanical-Chemical Stability of SOFCs from Defect Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eric Wachsman; Keith L. Duncan

    2006-09-30

    room temperature. The results reveal that the flexural strength decreases significantly after heat treatment in very low oxygen partial pressure environments; however, in contrast, fracture toughness is increased by 30-40% when the oxygen partial pressure was decreased to 10{sup -20} to 10{sup -22} atm range. Fractographic studies show that microcracks developed at 800 oC upon hydrogen reduction are responsible for the decreased strength. To understand the role of microstructure on electrochemical performance, electrical impedance spectra from symmetric LSM/YSZ/LSM cells was de-convoluted to obtain the key electrochemical components of electrode performance, namely charge transfer resistance, surface diffusion of reactive species and bulk gas diffusion through the electrode pores. These properties were then related to microstructural features, such as triple-phase boundary length and tortuosity. From these experiments we found that the impedance due to oxygen adsorption obeys a power law with pore surface area, while the impedance due to charge transfer is found to obey a power-law with respect to triple phase boundary length. A model based on kinetic theory explaining the power-law relationships observed was then developed. Finally, during our EIS work on the symmetric LSM/YSZ/LSM cells a technique was developed to improve the quality of high-frequency impedance data and their subsequent de-convolution.

  16. The impact of soil moisture on the spin up of 1-D Noah land surface model at a site in monsoonal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, A.; Mandal, M.

    2014-12-01

    Model spin-up is the process through which the model is adequately equilibrated to ensure balance between the mass fields and velocity fields. In this study, an offline 1-D Noah land surface model (LSM) has been used to investigate the impact of soil moisture on the model spin up at Kharagpur, India which is a site in monsoonal region. The model is integrated recursively for 3-years to assess its spin-up behavior. Several numerical experiments are performed to investigate the impact of initial soil moisture and subsequent dry or wet condition on model spin-up. These include simulations with different initial soil moisture content (observed soil moisture; dry soil; moderately wet soil; saturated soil), simulations initialized before different rain conditions (no rain; infrequent rain; continuous rain) and simulations initialized in different seasons (Winter, Spring, Summer/Pre-Monsoon, Monsoon and Autumn). It is noted that the model has significantly longer spin-up when initialized with very low initial soil moisture content than with higher soil moisture content. It is also seen that in general, simulations initialized just before a continuous rainfall event have the least spin-up time. In a region affected by the monsoon, such as Kharagpur, this observation is reinforced by the results from the simulations initialized in different seasons. It is seen that for monsoonal region, the model spin-up time is least for simulations initialized during Summer/Pre-monsoon. Model initialized during the Monsoon has a longer spin-up than that initialized in any other season. It appears that the model has shorter spin-up if it reaches the equilibrium state predominantly via drying process. It is also observed that the spin-up of offline 1-D Noah LSM may be as low as two months under quasi-equilibrium condition if the initial soil moisture content and time of start of simulations are chosen carefully.

  17. Water balance in the Amazon basin from a land surface model ensemble

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Getirana, Augusto; Dutra, Emanuel; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Kam, Jonghun; Li, Hongyi; Decharme, Bertrand; Zhang, Zhengqiu J.; Ducharne, Agnes; Boone, Aaron; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Rodell, Matthew; Mounirou Toure, Ally; Xue, Yongkang; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Arsenault, Kristi Rae; Drapeau, Guillaume; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ronchail, Josyane; Sheffield, Justin

    2014-12-06

    Despite recent advances in modeling and remote sensing of land surfaces, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. The objective of this study is to evaluate the water budget of the Amazon basin based on several state-of-the-art land surface model (LSM) outputs. Water budget variables [total water storage (TWS), evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff (R) and baseflow (B)] are evaluated at the basin scale using both remote sensing and in situ data. Fourteen LSMs were run using meteorological forcings at a 3-hourly time step and 1-degree spatial resolution. Three experiments are performed using precipitation which has been rescaled to match monthly global GPCP and GPCC datasets and the daily HYBAM dataset for the Amazon basin. R and B are used to force the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme and simulated discharges are compared against observations at 165 gauges. Simulated ET and TWS are compared against FLUXNET and MOD16A2 evapotranspiration, and GRACE TWS estimates in different catchments. At the basin scale, simulated ET ranges from 2.39mm.d-1 to 3.26mm.d-1 and a low spatial correlation between ET and P indicates that evapotranspiration does not depend on water availability over most of the basin. Results also show that other simulated water budget variables vary significantly as a function of both the LSM and precipitation used, but simulated TWS generally agree at the basin scale. The best water budget simulations resulted from experiments using the HYBAM dataset, mostly explained by a denser rainfall gauge network the daily rescaling.

  18. Impact of soil parameter and physical process on reproducibility of hydrological processes by land surface model in semiarid grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyazaki, S.; Yorozu, K.; Asanuma, J.; Kondo, M.; Saito, K.

    2014-12-01

    The land surface model (LSM) takes part in the land-atmosphere interaction on the earth system model for the climate change research. In this study, we evaluated the impact of soil parameters and physical process on reproducibility of hydrological process by LSM Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and RunOff (MATSIRO; Takata et al, 2003, GPC) forced by the meteorological data observed at grassland in semiarid climate in China and Mongolia. The testing of MATSIRO was carried out offline mode over the semiarid grassland sites at Tongyu (44.42 deg. N, 122.87 deg. E, altitude: 184m) in China, Kherlen Bayan Ulaan (KBU; 47.21 deg. N, 108.74 deg. E, altitude: 1235m) and Arvaikheer (46.23 N, 102.82E, altitude: 1,813m) in Mongolia. Although all sites locate semiarid grassland, the climate condition is different among sites, which the annual air temperature and precipitation are 5.7 deg. C and 388mm (Tongyu), 1.2 deg.C and 180mm (KBU), and 0.4 deg. C and 245mm(Arvaikheer). We can evaluate the effect of climate condition on the model performance. Three kinds of experiments have been carried out, which was run with the default parameters (CTL), the observed parameters (OBS) for soil physics and hydrology, and vegetation, and refined MATSIRO with the effect of ice in thermal parameters and unfrozen water below the freezing with same parameters as OBS run (OBSr). The validation data has been provided by CEOP(http://www.ceop.net/) , RAISE(http://raise.suiri.tsukuba.ac.jp/), GAME-AAN (Miyazaki et al., 2004, JGR) for Tongyu, KBU, and Arvaikheer, respectively. The reproducibility of the net radiation, the soil temperature (Ts), and latent heat flux (LE) were well reproduced by OBS and OBSr run. The change of soil physical and hydraulic parameter affected the reproducibility of soil temperature (Ts) and soil moisture (SM) as well as energy flux component especially for the sensible heat flux (H) and soil heat flux (G). The reason for the great improvement on the

  19. Three-flavor chiral effective model with four baryonic multiplets within the mirror assignment

    CERN Document Server

    Olbrich, L; Giacosa, F

    2016-01-01

    We study three-flavor octet baryons by using the so-called extended Linear Sigma Model (eLSM). Within a quark-diquark picture, the requirement of a mirror assignment naturally leads to the consideration of four spin-$\\frac{1}{2}$ baryon multiplets. A reduction of the Lagrangian to the two-flavor case leaves four doublets of nucleonic states which mix to form the experimentally observed states $N(939)$, $N(1440)$, $N(1535)$ and $N(1650)$. We determine the parameters of the nucleonic part of the Lagrangian from a fit to masses and decay properties of the aforementioned states. By tracing their masses when chiral symmetry is restored, we conclude that the pairs $N(939)$, $N(1535)$ and $N(1440)$, $N(1650)$ form chiral partners.

  20. Using SMOS for validation and parameter estimation of a large scale hydrological model in Paraná river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colossi, Bibiana; Fleischmann, Ayan; Siqueira, Vinicius; Bitar, Ahmad Al; Paiva, Rodrigo; Fan, Fernando; Ruhoff, Anderson; Pontes, Paulo; Collischonn, Walter

    2017-04-01

    Large scale representation of soil moisture conditions can be achieved through hydrological simulation and remote sensing techniques. However, both methodologies have several limitations, which suggests the potential benefits of using both information together. So, this study had two main objectives: perform a cross-validation between remotely sensed soil moisture from SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) L3 product and soil moisture simulated with the large scale hydrological model MGB-IPH; and to evaluate the potential benefits of including remotely sensed soil moisture for model parameter estimation. The study analyzed results in South American continent, where hydrometeorological monitoring is usually scarce. The study was performed in Paraná River Basin, an important South American basin, whose extension and particular characteristics allow the representation of different climatic, geological, and, consequently, hydrological conditions. Soil moisture estimated with SMOS was transformed from water content to a Soil Water Index (SWI) so it is comparable to the saturation degree simulated with MGB-IPH model. The multi-objective complex evolution algorithm (MOCOM-UA) was applied for model automatic calibration considering only remotely sensed soil moisture, only discharge and both information together. Results show that this type of analysis can be very useful, because it allows to recognize limitations in model structure. In the case of the hydrological model calibration, this approach can avoid the use of parameters out of range, in an attempt to compensate model limitations. Also, it indicates aspects of the model were efforts should be concentrated, in order to improve hydrological or hydraulics process representation. Automatic calibration gives an estimative about the way different information can be applied and the quality of results it might lead. We emphasize that these findings can be valuable for hydrological modeling in large scale South American

  1. Grid Oriented Implementation of the Tephra Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltelli, M.; D'Agostino, M.; Drago, A.; Pistagna, F.; Prestifilippo, M.; Reitano, D.; Scollo, S.; Spata, G.

    2009-04-01

    TEPHRA is a two dimensional advection-diffusion model implemented by Bonadonna et al. [2005] that describes the sedimentation process of particles from volcanic plumes. The model is used by INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, to forecast tephra dispersion during Etna volcanic events. Every day weather forecast provided by the Italian Air Force Meteorological Office in Rome and by the hydrometeorological service of ARPA in Emilia Romagna are processed by TEPHRA model with other volcanological parameters to simulate two different eruptive scenarios of Mt. Etna (corresponding to 1998 and 2002-03 Etna eruptions). The model outputs are plotted on maps and transferred to Civil Protection which takes the trouble to give public warnings and plan mitigation measures. The TEPHRA model is implemented in ANSI-C code using MPI commands to maximize parallel computation. Actually the model runs on an INGV Beowulf cluster. In order to provide better performances we worked on porting it to PI2S2 sicilian grid infrastructure inside the "PI2S2 Project" (2006-2008). We configured the application to run on grid, using Glite middleware, analyzed the obtained performances and comparing them with ones obtained on the local cluster. As TEPHRA needs to be run in a short time in order to transfer fastly the dispersion maps to Civil Protection, we also worked to minimize and stabilize grid job-scheduling time by using customized high-priority queues called Emergency Queue.

  2. Modelling evapotranspiration during precipitation deficits: identifying critical processes in a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ukkola, Anna M.; Pitman, Andy J.; Decker, Mark; De Kauwe, Martin G.; Abramowitz, Gab; Kala, Jatin; Wang, Ying-Ping

    2016-06-01

    Surface fluxes from land surface models (LSMs) have traditionally been evaluated against monthly, seasonal or annual mean states. The limited ability of LSMs to reproduce observed evaporative fluxes under water-stressed conditions has been previously noted, but very few studies have systematically evaluated these models during rainfall deficits. We evaluated latent heat fluxes simulated by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) LSM across 20 flux tower sites at sub-annual to inter-annual timescales, in particular focusing on model performance during seasonal-scale rainfall deficits. The importance of key model processes in capturing the latent heat flux was explored by employing alternative representations of hydrology, leaf area index, soil properties and stomatal conductance. We found that the representation of hydrological processes was critical for capturing observed declines in latent heat during rainfall deficits. By contrast, the effects of soil properties, LAI and stomatal conductance were highly site-specific. Whilst the standard model performs reasonably well at annual scales as measured by common metrics, it grossly underestimates latent heat during rainfall deficits. A new version of CABLE, with a more physically consistent representation of hydrology, captures the variation in the latent heat flux during seasonal-scale rainfall deficits better than earlier versions, but remaining biases point to future research needs. Our results highlight the importance of evaluating LSMs under water-stressed conditions and across multiple plant functional types and climate regimes.

  3. Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getirana, Augusto C. V.; Dutra, Emanuel; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Kam, Jonghun; Li, Hong-Yi; Decharme, Bertrand; Zhang, Zhengqiu; Ducharne, Agnes; Boone, Aaron; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Rodell, Matthew; Toure, Ally M.; Xue, Yongkang; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Arsenault, Kristi; Drapeau, Guillaume; Leung, L. Ruby; Ronchail, Josyane; Sheffield, Justin

    2014-01-01

    Despite recent advances in land surfacemodeling and remote sensing, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the water budget of the Amazon basin based on several state-ofthe- art land surface model (LSM) outputs. Water budget variables (terrestrial water storage TWS, evapotranspiration ET, surface runoff R, and base flow B) are evaluated at the basin scale using both remote sensing and in situ data. Meteorological forcings at a 3-hourly time step and 18 spatial resolution were used to run 14 LSMs. Precipitation datasets that have been rescaled to matchmonthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) andGlobal Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) datasets and the daily Hydrologie du Bassin de l'Amazone (HYBAM) dataset were used to perform three experiments. The Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme was forced with R and B and simulated discharges are compared against observations at 165 gauges. Simulated ET and TWS are compared against FLUXNET and MOD16A2 evapotranspiration datasets andGravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE)TWSestimates in two subcatchments of main tributaries (Madeira and Negro Rivers).At the basin scale, simulated ET ranges from 2.39 to 3.26 mm day(exp -1) and a low spatial correlation between ET and precipitation indicates that evapotranspiration does not depend on water availability over most of the basin. Results also show that other simulated water budget components vary significantly as a function of both the LSM and precipitation dataset, but simulated TWS generally agrees with GRACE estimates at the basin scale. The best water budget simulations resulted from experiments using HYBAM, mostly explained by a denser rainfall gauge network and the rescaling at a finer temporal scale.

  4. A molecular computational model improves the preoperative diagnosis of thyroid nodules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomei Sara

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytological features on fine needle aspiration (FNA cytology have a 20% risk of thyroid cancer. The aim of the current study was to determine the diagnostic utility of an 8-gene assay to distinguish benign from malignant thyroid neoplasm. Methods The mRNA expression level of 9 genes (KIT, SYNGR2, C21orf4, Hs.296031, DDI2, CDH1, LSM7, TC1, NATH was analysed by quantitative PCR (q-PCR in 93 FNA cytological samples. To evaluate the diagnostic utility of all the genes analysed, we assessed the area under the curve (AUC for each gene individually and in combination. BRAF exon 15 status was determined by pyrosequencing. An 8-gene computational model (Neural Network Bayesian Classifier was built and a multiple-variable analysis was then performed to assess the correlation between the markers. Results The AUC for each significant marker ranged between 0.625 and 0.900, thus all the significant markers, alone and in combination, can be used to distinguish between malignant and benign FNA samples. The classifier made up of KIT, CDH1, LSM7, C21orf4, DDI2, TC1, Hs.296031 and BRAF had a predictive power of 88.8%. It proved to be useful for risk stratification of the most critical cytological group of the indeterminate lesions for which there is the greatest need of accurate diagnostic markers. Conclusion The genetic classification obtained with this model is highly accurate at differentiating malignant from benign thyroid lesions and might be a useful adjunct in the preoperative management of patients with thyroid nodules.

  5. Influence of the management strategy model on estimating water system performance under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Hendrickx, Frederic

    2015-04-01

    The performance of water systems used worldwide for the management of water resources is expected to be influenced by future changes in regional climates and water uses. Anticipating possible performance changes of a given system requires a modeling chain simulating its management. Operational management is usually not trivial especially when several conflicting objectives have to be accounted for. Management models are therefore often a crude representation of the real system and they only approximate its performance. Estimated performance changes are expected to depend on the management model used, but this is often not assessed. This communication analyzes the influence of the management strategy representation on the performance of an Alpine reservoir (Serre-Ponçon, South-East of France) for which irrigation supply, hydropower generation and recreational activities are the main objectives. We consider three ways to construct the strategy named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). System performance is estimated for an ensemble of future hydro-meteorological projections obtained in the RIWER2030 research project (http://www.lthe.fr/RIWER2030/) from a suite of climate experiments from the EU - ENSEMBLES research project. Our results show that changes in system performance is much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the choice of strategy modeling. They also show that a simple strategy representation (i.e. clear-sighted management) leads to similar estimates of performance modifications than those obtained with a representation supposedly closer to real world (i.e. the far-sighted management). The Short-Sighted management approach lead to significantly different results, especially

  6. Phenomenology of glueballs and scalar-isoscalar quarkonia within an effective hadronic model of QCD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janowski, Stanislaus

    2015-11-06

    This thesis is addressed to study the vacuum phenomenology of the scalar-isoscalar sector in the energy region between 1 and 2 GeV in the framework of the extended linear sigma model (eLSM). We found two solutions of the eLSM in the case of N{sub f}=2. In both solutions the resonance f{sub 0}(1370) was predominantly the non-strange anti qq state while the glueball was in one solution predominantly f{sub 0}(1500) and in the other one predominantly f{sub 0}(1710). Calculations of the three-flavored eLSM yield an unambiguous result where f{sub 0}(1370) was, as previously, predominantly the non-strange, while f{sub 0}(1500) is predominantly the strange quark-antiquark meson, and finally the resonance f{sub 0}(1710) turns out to be predominantly a scalar glueball. Our calculations are based on the assumption that the decay width of the scalar glueball is narrow (Γ{sub G}model suggests that f{sub 0}(1370) is the chiral partner of the pion. In addition, it is, to our knowledge, the first time where a full mixing, N{sub f}=3, above 1 GeV of two scalar-isoscalar quarkonia and a scalar glueball, described by a dilaton field, in a chiral hadronic model with (axial-)vector fields, was studied. Moreover, we studied the vacuum properties of a pseudoscalar glueball G. To this end, we constructed in conformity with the eLSM the effective Lagrangian which couples this glueball to the quark-antiquark mesons. The corresponding mass m{sub G}=2.6 GeV is predicted by lattice QCD in the quenched approximation. In

  7. Simulation and optimisation modelling approach for operation of the Hoa Binh Reservoir, Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ngo, Long le; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2007-01-01

    Hoa Binh, the largest reservoir in Vietnam, plays an important role in flood control for the Red River delta and hydropower generation. Due to its multi-purpose character, conflicts and disputes in operating the reservoir have been ongoing since its construction, particularly in the flood season......, the hydro-meteorological conditions, and the time of the year. A heuristic global optimisation tool, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm, is adopted for optimising the reservoir operation. The optimisation puts focus on the trade-off between flood control and hydropower generation for the Hoa....... This paper proposes to optimise the control strategies for the Hoa Binh reservoir operation by applying a combination of simulation and optimisation models. The control strategies are set up in the MIKE 11 simulation model to guide the releases of the reservoir system according to the current storage level...

  8. On SU(3 Effective Models and Chiral Phase Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdel Nasser Tawfik

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity of Polyakov Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (PNJL model and Polyakov linear sigma-model (PLSM has been utilized in studying QCD phase-diagram. From quasi-particle model (QPM a gluonic sector is integrated into LSM. The hadron resonance gas (HRG model is used in calculating the thermal and dense dependence of quark-antiquark condensate. We review these four models with respect to their descriptions for the chiral phase transition. We analyze the chiral order parameter, normalized net-strange condensate, and chiral phase-diagram and compare the results with recent lattice calculations. We find that PLSM chiral boundary is located in upper band of the lattice QCD calculations and agree well with the freeze-out results deduced from various high-energy experiments and thermal models. Also, we find that the chiral temperature calculated from HRG is larger than that from PLSM. This is also larger than the freeze-out temperatures calculated in lattice QCD and deduced from experiments and thermal models. The corresponding temperature and chemical potential are very similar to that of PLSM. Although the results from PNJL and QLSM keep the same behavior, their chiral temperature is higher than that of PLSM and HRG. This might be interpreted due the very heavy quark masses implemented in both models.

  9. Challenges of model transferability to data-scarce regions (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, L. E.

    2013-12-01

    Developing the ability to globally predict the movement of water on the land surface at spatial scales from 1 to 5 km constitute one of grand challenges in land surface modelling. Copying with this grand challenge implies that land surface models (LSM) should be able to make reliable predictions across locations and/or scales other than those used for parameter estimation. In addition to that, data scarcity and quality impose further difficulties in attaining reliable predictions of water and energy fluxes at the scales of interest. Current computational limitations impose also seriously limitations to exhaustively investigate the parameter space of LSM over large domains (e.g. greater than half a million square kilometers). Addressing these challenges require holistic approaches that integrate the best techniques available for parameter estimation, field measurements and remotely sensed data at their native resolutions. An attempt to systematically address these issues is the multiscale parameterisation technique (MPR) that links high resolution land surface characteristics with effective model parameters. This technique requires a number of pedo-transfer functions and a much fewer global parameters (i.e. coefficients) to be inferred by calibration in gauged basins. The key advantage of this technique is the quasi-scale independence of the global parameters which enables to estimate global parameters at coarser spatial resolutions and then to transfer them to (ungauged) areas and scales of interest. In this study we show the ability of this technique to reproduce the observed water fluxes and states over a wide range of climate and land surface conditions ranging from humid to semiarid and from sparse to dense forested regions. Results of transferability of global model parameters in space (from humid to semi-arid basins) and across scales (from coarser to finer) clearly indicate the robustness of this technique. Simulations with coarse data sets (e.g. EOBS

  10. Influence of hydrometeorological variation on saltwater intrusion in Changjiang River Estuary%水文气象条件变化对长江口盐水入侵影响研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗锋; 李瑞杰; 廖光洪; 曹晶晶; 黄祖英

    2011-01-01

    in Changjiang River Estuary were discussed. 3D numerical model (EFDC) was applied to the numerical calculation of hydrodynamic features and salinity of Changjiang River Estuary, Hangzhou Bay and their adjacent waters. The results were calibrated and verified with observed data. The results of the study show that the saltwater intrusion strength of the North Channel is higher than the North Passage, and the North Passage is higher than the South Passage; the outward diluting strength of the freshwater of the North Channel is also higher than the North and South Passages. Based on the simulation of the hydrodynamic features and salinity and through 15 groups of numerical experiments, the individual and integrated impacts of runoff, sea level rise, wind velocity and direction, different regulated flows of the Three Gorge Project and South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) on the trend and effecting distance of the sea water intrusion were calculated, which shows that (1) the runoff change in dry season has a significant impact on the saltwater intrusion in Changjiang River Estuary, the less the runoff is, the stronger the saltwater intrusion becomes; (2) for the dry season flow of the SNWDP, and the dry season flow after the combined regulation of SNWDP and the Three-Gorge Project, the salinity in the South Branch is more than 0. 5, and when the runoff reduced by 4 310 m3/s, the saltwater intrusion distance at the surface and bottom increased by 21. 9 km and 25. 6 km respectively, the effect on the surface is stronger than that on the bottom; (3) when the sea-level rises, the saltwater intrusion becomes stronger, and 0. 3 m and 0. 6 m of sea-level rise results in an increase of 4. 0 km and 7. 6 km of the saltwater intrusion distance at 1. 5 salinity contours; (4) different wind velocity and direction have different influences on the saltwater intrusion, the intrusion distance resulted from 10 m/s north wind is 5. 5 km and 24. 0 km longer than that resulted from

  11. The use of least squares methods in functional optimization of energy use prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourisli, Raed I.; Al-Shammeri, Basma S.; AlAnzi, Adnan A.

    2012-06-01

    The least squares method (LSM) is used to optimize the coefficients of a closed-form correlation that predicts the annual energy use of buildings based on key envelope design and thermal parameters. Specifically, annual energy use is related to a number parameters like the overall heat transfer coefficients of the wall, roof and glazing, glazing percentage, and building surface area. The building used as a case study is a previously energy-audited mosque in a suburb of Kuwait City, Kuwait. Energy audit results are used to fine-tune the base case mosque model in the VisualDOE{trade mark, serif} software. Subsequently, 1625 different cases of mosques with varying parameters were developed and simulated in order to provide the training data sets for the LSM optimizer. Coefficients of the proposed correlation are then optimized using multivariate least squares analysis. The objective is to minimize the difference between the correlation-predicted results and the VisualDOE-simulation results. It was found that the resulting correlation is able to come up with coefficients for the proposed correlation that reduce the difference between the simulated and predicted results to about 0.81%. In terms of the effects of the various parameters, the newly-defined weighted surface area parameter was found to have the greatest effect on the normalized annual energy use. Insulating the roofs and walls also had a major effect on the building energy use. The proposed correlation and methodology can be used during preliminary design stages to inexpensively assess the impacts of various design variables on the expected energy use. On the other hand, the method can also be used by municipality officials and planners as a tool for recommending energy conservation measures and fine-tuning energy codes.

  12. Hydroclimatic modelling of local sea level rise and its projection in future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naren, A.; Maity, Rajib

    2016-09-01

    Studies on sea level rise (SLR) in the context of climate change are gaining importance in the recent past. Whereas there is some clear evidence of SLR at global scale, its trend varies significantly from location to location. The role of different meteorological variables on sea level change (SLC) is explored. We hypothesise that the role of such variables varies from location to location and modelling of local SLC requires a proper identification of specific role of individual factors. After identifying a group of various local meteorological variables, Supervised Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) is used to develop a location specific Combined Index (CI). The SPCA ensures that the developed CI possesses highest possible association with the historical SLC at that location. Further, using the developed CI, an attempt is made to model the local sea level (LSL) variation in synchronous with the changing climate. The developed approach, termed as hydroclimatic semi-empirical approach, is found to be potential for local SLC at different coastal locations. The validated hydroclimatic approach is used for future projection of SLC at those coastal locations till 2100 for different climate change scenarios, i.e. different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Future hydrometeorological variables are obtained from Global Climate Models (GCMs) for different such scenarios, i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Effect of glacial isostatic readjustment (GIA) is not included in this study. However, if the reliable information on GIA is available for a location, the same can be arithmetically added to the final outcome of the proposed hydrometeorological approach.

  13. Diagnosing the Local Land-Atmosphere Coupling (LoCo) in Models and Observations: A Study of Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, J. A.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Kumar, S.; Dong, X.; Kennedy, A. D.

    2010-12-01

    Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during the summers of 2006/7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes of this region, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which is serving as a testbed for LoCo experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

  14. A Semi-parametric Multivariate Gap-filling Model for Eddy Covariance Latent Heat Flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, M.; Chen, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Quantitative descriptions of latent heat fluxes are important to study the water and energy exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The eddy covariance approaches have been recognized as the most reliable technique for measuring surface fluxes over time scales ranging from hours to years. However, unfavorable micrometeorological conditions, instrument failures, and applicable measurement limitations may cause inevitable flux gaps in time series data. Development and application of suitable gap-filling techniques are crucial to estimate long term fluxes. In this study, a semi-parametric multivariate gap-filling model was developed to fill latent heat flux gaps for eddy covariance measurements. Our approach combines the advantages of a multivariate statistical analysis (principal component analysis, PCA) and a nonlinear interpolation technique (K-nearest-neighbors, KNN). The PCA method was first used to resolve the multicollinearity relationships among various hydrometeorological factors, such as radiation, soil moisture deficit, LAI, and wind speed. The KNN method was then applied as a nonlinear interpolation tool to estimate the flux gaps as the weighted sum latent heat fluxes with the K-nearest distances in the PCs’ domain. Two years, 2008 and 2009, of eddy covariance and hydrometeorological data from a subtropical mixed evergreen forest (the Lien-Hua-Chih Site) were collected to calibrate and validate the proposed approach with artificial gaps after standard QC/QA procedures. The optimal K values and weighting factors were determined by the maximum likelihood test. The results of gap-filled latent heat fluxes conclude that developed model successful preserving energy balances of daily, monthly, and yearly time scales. Annual amounts of evapotranspiration from this study forest were 747 mm and 708 mm for 2008 and 2009, respectively. Nocturnal evapotranspiration was estimated with filled gaps and results are comparable with other studies

  15. Modelling land cover change in the Ganga basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulds, S.; Tsarouchi, G.; Mijic, A.; Buytaert, W.

    2013-12-01

    Over recent decades the green revolution in India has driven substantial environmental change. Modelling experiments have identified northern India as a 'hot spot' of land-atmosphere coupling strength during the boreal summer. However, there is a wide range of sensitivity of atmospheric variables to soil moisture between individual climate models. The lack of a comprehensive land cover change dataset to force climate models has been identified as a major contributor to model uncertainty. In this work a time series dataset of land cover change between 1970 and 2010 is constructed for northern India to improve the quantification of regional hydrometeorological feedbacks. The MODIS instrument on board the Aqua and Terra satellites provides near-continuous remotely sensed datasets from 2000 to the present day. However, the quality of satellite products before 2000 is poor. To complete the dataset MODIS images are extrapolated back in time using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small regional extent (CLUE-s) modelling framework. Non-spatial estimates of land cover area from national agriculture and forest statistics, available on a state-wise, annual basis, are used as a direct model input. Land cover change is allocated spatially as a function of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers identified using logistic regression. This dataset will provide an essential input to a high resolution, physically based land surface model to generate the lower boundary condition to assess the impact of land cover change on regional climate.

  16. Expansion of the Real-time Sport-land Information System for NOAA / National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; White, Kristopher D.

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL (Jedlovec 2013; Ralph et al. 2013; Merceret et al. 2013) is running a real-time configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework (hereafter referred to as the "SPoRT-LIS"). Output from the real-time SPoRT-LIS is used for (1) initializing land surface variables for local modeling applications, and (2) displaying in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring at select NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices. The SPoRT-LIS is currently run over a domain covering the southeastern half of the Continental United States (CONUS), with an additional experimental real-time run over the entire CONUS and surrounding portions of southern Canada and northern Mexico. The experimental CONUS run incorporates hourly quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from the National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi- Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) product (Zhang et al. 2011, 2014), which will be transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Fall 2014. This paper describes the current and experimental SPoRT-LIS configurations, and documents some of the limitations still remaining through the advent of MRMS precipitation analyses in the SPoRT-LIS land surface model (LSM) simulations. Section 2 gives background information on the NASA LIS and describes the realtime SPoRT-LIS configurations being compared. Section 3 presents recent work done to develop a training module on situational awareness applications of real-time SPoRT-LIS output. Comparisons between output from the two SPoRT-LIS runs are shown in Section 4, including a documentation of issues encountered in using the MRMS precipitation dataset. A summary and future work in given in Section 5, followed by acknowledgements and references.

  17. On SU(3) effective models and chiral phase-transition

    CERN Document Server

    Tawfik, Abdel Nasser

    2015-01-01

    The sensitivity of Polyakov Nambu-Jona-Lasinio (PNJL) model as an effective theory of quark dynamics to chiral symmetry has been utilized in studying the QCD phase-diagram. Also, Poyakov linear sigma-model (PLSM), in which information about the confining glue sector of the theory was included through Polyakov-loop potential. Furthermore, from quasi-particle model (QPM), the gluonic sector of QPM is integrated to LSM in order to reproduce recent lattice calculations. We review PLSM, QLSM, PNJL and HRG with respect to their descriptions for the chiral phase-transition. We analyse chiral order-parameter M(T), normalized net-strange condensate Delta_{q,s}(T) and chiral phase-diagram and compare the results with lattice QCD. We conclude that PLSM works perfectly in reproducing M(T) and Delta_{q,s}(T). HRG model reproduces Delta_{q,s}(T), while PNJL and QLSM seem to fail. These differences are present in QCD chiral phase-diagram. PLSM chiral boundary is located in upper band of lattice QCD calculations and agree we...

  18. Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel-Christiansen, Carsten

    2005-01-01

    Artiklen fremhæver den visuelle rotation - billeder, tegninger, modeller, værker - som det privilligerede medium i kommunikationen af ideer imellem skabende arkitekter......Artiklen fremhæver den visuelle rotation - billeder, tegninger, modeller, værker - som det privilligerede medium i kommunikationen af ideer imellem skabende arkitekter...

  19. Analysis of flash flood-triggering rainfall for a process-oriented hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garambois, P. A.; Larnier, K.; Roux, H.; Labat, D.; Dartus, D.

    2014-02-01

    We propose an extended study of recent flood-triggering storms and resulting hydrological responses for catchments in the Pyrenean foothills up to the Aude region. For hydrometeorological sciences, it appears relevant to characterize flash floods and the storm that triggered them over various temporal and spatial scales. There are very few studies of extreme storm-caused floods in the literature covering the Mediterranean and highlighting, for example, the quickness and seasonality of this natural phenomenon. The present analysis is based on statistics that clarify the dependence between the spatial and temporal distributions of rainfall at catchment scale, catchment morphology and runoff response. Given the specific space and time scales of rainfall cell development, we show that the combined use of radar and a rain gauge network appears pertinent. Rainfall depth and intensity are found to be lower for catchments in the Pyrenean foothills than for the nearby Corbières or Montagne Noire regions. We highlight various hydrological behaviours and show that an increase in initial soil saturation tends to foster quicker catchment flood response times, of around 3 to 10 h. The hydrometeorological data set characterized in this paper constitutes a wealth of information to constrain a physics-based distributed model for regionalization purposes in the case of flash floods. Moreover, the use of diagnostic indices for rainfall distribution over catchment drainage networks highlights a unimodal trend in spatial temporal storm distributions for the entire flood dataset. Finally, it appears that floods in mountainous Pyrenean catchments are generally triggered by rainfall near the catchment outlet, where the topography is lower.

  20. Application of high resolution land use and land cover data for atmospheric modeling in the Houston-Galveston metropolitan area, Part I: Meteorological simulation results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Fang-Yi; Byun, Daewon W.

    To predict atmospheric conditions in an urban environment, the land surface processes must be accurately described through the use of detailed land use (LU) and land cover (LC) data. Use of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 25-category data, currently in the Fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5), with the Noah land surface model (LSM) and MRF (medium-range forecast) planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes resulted in the over-prediction of daytime temperatures in the Houston downtown area due to the inaccurate representation as a completely impervious surface. This bias could be corrected with the addition of canopy water in the urban areas from the evapotranspiration effects of urban vegetation. A more fundamental approach would be to utilize an LULC dataset that represents land surface features accurately. The Texas Forest Service (TFS) LULC dataset established with the LANDSAT satellite imagery correctly represents the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area as mixtures of urban, residential, grass, and forest LULC types. This paper describes how the Noah LSM and PBL schemes in the MM5 were modified to accommodate the TFS-LULC data. Comparisons with various meteorological measurements show that the MM5 simulation made with the high resolution LULC data improves the boundary layer mixing conditions and local wind patterns in the Houston Ship Channel, which is a critically important anthropogenic emission area affecting the HGB air pollution problems. In particular, when the synoptic flows are weak, the improved LULC data simulates the asymmetrically elongated Houston heat island convergence zone influencing the location of the afternoon Gulf of Mexico sea-breeze front and the Galveston Bay breeze flows. This paper is part I of a two-part study and focuses on the meteorological simulation. In part II, effects of using the different meteorological inputs on air quality simulations are discussed.

  1. First measurement of the small-scale spatial variability of the rain drop size distribution: Results from a crucial experiment and maximum entropy modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Checa-Garcia, Ramiro

    2013-01-01

    The main challenges of measuring precipitation are related to the spatio-temporal variability of the drop-size distribution, to the uncertainties that condition the modeling of that distribution, and to the instrumental errors present in the in situ estimations. This PhD dissertation proposes advances in all these questions. The relevance of the spatial variability of the drop-size distribution for remote sensing measurements and hydro-meteorology field studies is asserted by analyzing the measurement of a set of disdrometers deployed on a network of 5 squared kilometers. This study comprises the spatial variability of integral rainfall parameters, the ZR relationships, and the variations within the one moment scaling method. The modeling of the drop-size distribution is analyzed by applying the MaxEnt method and comparing it with the methods of moments and the maximum likelihood. The instrumental errors are analyzed with a compressive comparison of sampling and binning uncertainties that affect actual device...

  2. Numerical modeling and remote sensing of global water management systems: Applications for land surface modeling, satellite missions, and sustainable water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solander, Kurt C.

    The ability to accurately quantify water storages and fluxes in water management systems through observations or models is of increasing importance due to the expected impacts from climate change and population growth worldwide. Here, I describe three innovative techniques developed to better understand this problem. First, a model was created to represent reservoir storage and outflow with the objective of integration into a Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate the impacts of reservoir management on the climate system. Given this goal, storage capacity represented the lone model input required that is not already available to an LSM user. Model parameterization was linked to air temperature to allow future simulations to adapt to a changing climate, making it the first such model to mimic the potential response of a reservoir operator to climate change. Second, spatial and temporal error properties of future NASA Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite reservoir operations were quantified. This work invoked the use of the SWOTsim instrument simulator, which was run over a number of synthetic and actual reservoirs so the resulting error properties could be extrapolated to the global scale. The results provide eventual users of SWOT data with a blueprint of expected reservoir error properties so such characteristics can be determined a priori for a reservoir given knowledge about its topology and anticipated repeat orbit pass over its location. Finally, data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission was used in conjunction with in-situ water use records to evaluate sustainable water use at the two-digit HUC basin scale over the contiguous United States. Results indicate that the least sustainable water management region is centered in the southwest, where consumptive water use exceeded water availability by over 100% on average for some of these basins. This work represents the first attempt at evaluating sustainable

  3. A GUIDED SWAT MODEL APPLICATION ON SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING IN PANGANI RIVER BASIN: LESSONS LEARNT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preksedis Marco Ndomba

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to report on the lessons learnt from applying Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT in a well guided sediment yield modelling study. The study area is the upstream of Pangani River Basin (PRB, the Nyumba Ya Mungu (NYM reservoir catchment, located in the North Eastern part of Tanzania. It should be noted that, previous modeling exercises in the region applied SWAT with preassumption that inter-rill or sheet erosion was the dominant erosion type. In contrast, in this study SWAT model application was guided by results of analysis of high temporal resolution of sediment flow data and hydro-meteorological data. The runoff component of the SWAT model was calibrated from six-years (i.e. 1977–1982 of historical daily streamflow data. The sediment component of the model was calibrated using one-year (1977–1988 daily sediment loads estimated from one hydrological year sampling programme (between March and November, 2005 rating curve. A long-term period over 37 years (i.e. 1969–2005 simulation results of the SWAT model was validated to downstream NYM reservoir sediment accumulation information. The SWAT model captured 56 percent of the variance (CE and underestimated the observed daily sediment loads by 0.9 percent according to Total Mass Control (TMC performance indices during a normal wet hydrological year, i.e., between November 1, 1977 and October 31, 1978, as the calibration period. SWAT model predicted satisfactorily the long-term sediment catchment yield with a relative error of 2.6 percent. Also, the model has identified erosion sources spatially and has replicated some erosion processes as determined in other studies and field observations in the PRB. This result suggests that for catchments where sheet erosion is dominant SWAT model may substitute the sediment-rating curve. However, the SWAT model could not capture the dynamics of sediment load delivery in some seasons to the catchment outlet.

  4. A GUIDED SWAT MODEL APPLICATION ON SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING IN PANGANI RIVER BASIN: LESSONS LEARNT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preksedis M. Ndomba

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to report on the lessons learnt from applying Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT in a well guided sediment yield modelling study. The study area is the upstream of Pangani River Basin (PRB, the Nyumba Ya Mungu (NYM reservoir catchment, located in the North Eastern part of Tanzania. It should be noted that, previous modeling exercises in the region applied SWAT with preassumption that inter-rill or sheet erosion was the dominant erosion type. In contrast, in this study SWAT model application was guided by results of analysis of high temporal resolution of sediment flow data and hydro-meteorological data. The runoff component of the SWAT model was calibrated from six-years (i.e. 1977¿1982 of historical daily streamflow data. The sediment component of the model was calibrated using one-year (1977-1988 daily sediment loads estimated from one hydrological year sampling programme (between March and November, 2005 rating curve. A long-term period over 37 years (i.e. 1969-2005 simulation results of the SWAT model was validated to downstream NYM reservoir sediment accumulation information. The SWAT model captured 56 percent of the variance (CE and underestimated the observed daily sediment loads by 0.9 percent according to Total Mass Control (TMC performance indices during a normal wet hydrological year, i.e., between November 1, 1977 and October 31, 1978, as the calibration period. SWAT model predicted satisfactorily the long-term sediment catchment yield with a relative error of 2.6 percent. Also, the model has identified erosion sources spatially and has replicated some erosion processes as determined in other studies and field observations in the PRB. This result suggests that for catchments where sheet erosion is dominant SWAT model may substitute the sediment-rating curve. However, the SWAT model could not capture the dynamics of sediment load delivery in some seasons to the catchment outlet.

  5. Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Spädtke, P

    2013-01-01

    Modeling of technical machines became a standard technique since computer became powerful enough to handle the amount of data relevant to the specific system. Simulation of an existing physical device requires the knowledge of all relevant quantities. Electric fields given by the surrounding boundary as well as magnetic fields caused by coils or permanent magnets have to be known. Internal sources for both fields are sometimes taken into account, such as space charge forces or the internal magnetic field of a moving bunch of charged particles. Used solver routines are briefly described and some bench-marking is shown to estimate necessary computing times for different problems. Different types of charged particle sources will be shown together with a suitable model to describe the physical model. Electron guns are covered as well as different ion sources (volume ion sources, laser ion sources, Penning ion sources, electron resonance ion sources, and H$^-$-sources) together with some remarks on beam transport.

  6. Conjunctively optimizing flash flood control and water quality in urban water reservoirs by model predictive control and dynamic emulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galelli, Stefano; Goedbloed, Albert; Schmitter, Petra; Castelletti, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Urban water reservoirs are a viable adaptation option to account for increasing drinking water demand of urbanized areas as they allow storage and re-use of water that is normally lost. In addition, the direct availability of freshwater reduces pumping costs and diversifies the portfolios of drinking water supply. Yet, these benefits have an associated twofold cost. Firstly, the presence of large, impervious areas increases the hydraulic efficiency of urban catchments, with short time of concentration, increased runoff rates, losses of infiltration and baseflow, and higher risk of flash floods. Secondly, the high concentration of nutrients and sediments characterizing urban discharges is likely to cause water quality problems. In this study we propose a new control scheme combining Model Predictive Control (MPC), hydro-meteorological forecasts and dynamic model emulation to design real-time operating policies that conjunctively optimize water quantity and quality targets. The main advantage of this scheme stands in its capability of exploiting real-time hydro-meteorological forecasts, which are crucial in such fast-varying systems. In addition, the reduced computational requests of the MPC scheme allows coupling it with dynamic emulators of water quality processes. The approach is demonstrated on Marina Reservoir, a multi-purpose reservoir located in the heart of Singapore and characterized by a large, highly urbanized catchment with a short (i.e. approximately one hour) time of concentration. Results show that the MPC scheme, coupled with a water quality emulator, provides a good compromise between different operating objectives, namely flood risk reduction, drinking water supply and salinity control. Finally, the scheme is used to assess the effect of source control measures (e.g. green roofs) aimed at restoring the natural hydrological regime of Marina Reservoir catchment.

  7. model

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    trie neural construction oí inoiviouo! unci communal identities in ... occurs, Including models based on Information processing,1 ... Applying the DSM descriptive approach to dissociation in the ... a personal, narrative path lhal connects personal lo ethnic ..... managed the problem in the context of the community, using a.

  8. Coupled atmospheric, land surface, and subsurface modeling: Exploring water and energy feedbacks in three-dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davison, Jason H.; Hwang, Hyoun-Tae; Sudicky, Edward A.; Lin, John C.

    2015-12-01

    Human activities amplified by climate change pose a significant threat to the sustainability of water resources. Coupled climate-hydrologic simulations commonly predict these threats by combining shallow 1-D land surface models (LSMs) with traditional 2-D and 3-D hydrology models. However, these coupled models limit the moisture and energy-feedback dynamics to the shallow near-surface. This paper presents a novel analysis by applying an integrated variably-saturated subsurface/surface hydrology and heat transport model, HydroGeoSphere (HGS), as a land surface model (LSM). Furthermore, this article demonstrates the coupling of HGS to a simple 0-D atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) model. We then applied our coupled HGS-ABL model to three separate test cases and reproduced the strong correlation between the atmospheric energy balance to the depth of the groundwater table. From our simulations, we found that conventional LSMs may overestimate surface temperatures for extended drought periods because they underestimate the heat storage in the groundwater zone. Our final test case of the atmospheric response to drought conditions illustrated that deeper roots buffered the atmosphere better than shallow roots by maintaining higher latent heat fluxes, lower sensible heat fluxes, and lower surface and atmospheric temperatures.

  9. A test of an optimal stomatal conductance scheme within the CABLE land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Kauwe, M. G.; Kala, J.; Lin, Y.-S.; Pitman, A. J.; Medlyn, B. E.; Duursma, R. A.; Abramowitz, G.; Wang, Y.-P.; Miralles, D. G.

    2015-02-01

    Stomatal conductance (gs) affects the fluxes of carbon, energy and water between the vegetated land surface and the atmosphere. We test an implementation of an optimal stomatal conductance model within the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model (LSM). In common with many LSMs, CABLE does not differentiate between gs model parameters in relation to plant functional type (PFT), but instead only in relation to photosynthetic pathway. We constrained the key model parameter "g1", which represents plant water use strategy, by PFT, based on a global synthesis of stomatal behaviour. As proof of concept, we also demonstrate that the g1 parameter can be estimated using two long-term average (1960-1990) bioclimatic variables: (i) temperature and (ii) an indirect estimate of annual plant water availability. The new stomatal model, in conjunction with PFT parameterisations, resulted in a large reduction in annual fluxes of transpiration (~ 30% compared to the standard CABLE simulations) across evergreen needleleaf, tundra and C4 grass regions. Differences in other regions of the globe were typically small. Model performance against upscaled data products was not degraded, but did not noticeably reduce existing model-data biases. We identified assumptions relating to the coupling of the vegetation to the atmosphere and the parameterisation of the minimum stomatal conductance as areas requiring further investigation in both CABLE and potentially other LSMs. We conclude that optimisation theory can yield a simple and tractable approach to predicting stomatal conductance in LSMs.

  10. A test of an optimal stomatal conductance scheme within the CABLE Land Surface Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. G. De Kauwe

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Stomatal conductance (gs affects the fluxes of carbon, energy and water between the vegetated land surface and the atmosphere. We test an implementation of an optimal stomatal conductance model within the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE land surface model (LSM. In common with many LSMs, CABLE does not differentiate between gs model parameters in relation to plant functional type (PFT, but instead only in relation to photosynthetic pathway. We therefore constrained the key model parameter "g1" which represents a plants water use strategy by PFT based on a global synthesis of stomatal behaviour. As proof of concept, we also demonstrate that the g1 parameter can be estimated using two long-term average (1960–1990 bioclimatic variables: (i temperature and (ii an indirect estimate of annual plant water availability. The new stomatal models in conjunction with PFT parameterisations resulted in a large reduction in annual fluxes of transpiration (~ 30% compared to the standard CABLE simulations across evergreen needleleaf, tundra and C4 grass regions. Differences in other regions of the globe were typically small. Model performance when compared to upscaled data products was not degraded, though the new stomatal conductance scheme did not noticeably change existing model-data biases. We conclude that optimisation theory can yield a simple and tractable approach to predicting stomatal conductance in LSMs.

  11. Forecasting river discharge using coupled WRF-NMM meteorological model and HBV runoff model, case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekić, L.; Mihalović, A.; Jovičić, I.; Vladiković, D.; Jerinić, J.; Ivković, M.

    2012-04-01

    This paper examines two episodes of heavy rainfall and significantly increased water levels. The first case relates to the period including the beginning and the end of the third decade of June 2010 at the Kolubara river basin, where extreme rainfall led to two big flood waves on the Kolubara river, whereat water levels exceeded both regular and extraordinary flood defence and approached their historical maximum. The second case relates to the period including the end of November and the beginning of December 2010 at the Jadar river basin, where heavier precipitation caused the water levels of the basin to reach and surpass the occurrence limit (warning level). The HBV (Hydrological Bureau Waterbalance-section) rainfall/snowmelt - runoff model installed at the RHMSS uses gridded quantitative precipitation and air temperature forecast for 72 hours in advance based on meteorological weather forecast WRF-NMM mesoscale model. Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system is flexible state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model capable to describe and estimate powerful nonhydrostatic mechanism in convective clouds that cause heavy rain. The HBV model is a semi-distributed conceptual catchment model in which the spatial structure of a catchment area is not explicitly modelled. Instead, the sub-basin represents a primary modelling unit while the basin is characterised by area-elevation distribution and classification of vegetation cover and land use distributed by height zone. WRF-NMM forecast shows very good agreement with observations in terms of timing, location and amount of precipitation. They are used as input for HBV model, forecasted discharges at the output profile of the selected river basin represent model output for consideration. 1 Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia

  12. Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Bell, Jordan R.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the

  13. An application of artificial intelligence for rainfall–runoff modeling

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ali Aytek; M Asce; Murat Alp

    2008-04-01

    This study proposes an application of two techniques of artificial intelligence (AI) for rainfall–runoff modeling: the artificial neural networks (ANN) and the evolutionary computation (EC). Two different ANN techniques, the feed forward back propagation (FFBP) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) methods are compared with one EC method, Gene Expression Programming (GEP) which is a new evolutionary algorithm that evolves computer programs. The daily hydrometeorological data of three rainfall stations and one streamflow station for Juniata River Basin in Pennsylvania state of USA are taken into consideration in the model development. Statistical parameters such as average, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, minimum and maximum values, as well as criteria such as mean square error (MSE) and determination coefficient (2) are used to measure the performance of the models. The results indicate that the proposed genetic programming (GP) formulation performs quite well compared to results obtained by ANNs and is quite practical for use. It is concluded from the results that GEP can be proposed as an alternative to ANN models.

  14. Assessing Water Availability in the Rio Grande Basin using NOAH Land Surface Model and NLDAS2 Forcing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khedun, C. P.; Giardino, J. R.; Singh, V. P.; Bolten, J. D.

    2009-12-01

    The Rio Grande/Río Bravo basin is a transboundary basin shared between several states in the United States and trends along part of the border between the United States and Mexico. The basin has a varied climatology - desert with high temperature and low water resources in the northern part and a tropical climate in the southern part. The surface water in the basin is over allocated, and some cities already rely solely on ground water to meet municipal water needs. The population and urban water demand are expected to double in the next 50 years. Climate variability and change, along with persistent long-term droughts, exacerbate the problem of meeting water demands. Uncertainty in the ways these climatic phenomena will affect the water availability in the coming decades will impact the effective long-term policies and management of water resources in the basin in the United States and Mexico, and this can lead to tensions over water allocation across the border. In order to study the impact of demographic changes and climate variability and change on future water availability, it is important to develop a model that can assess the current water availability and evaluate the effect of projected climate change, based on IPCC’s scenarios, on the hydrology of the basin. For this study we developed a model based on the community NOAH land surface model (LSM) within NASA’s GSFC Land Information System. The LSM is a 1-D column model that runs in coupled or uncoupled mode, and it simulates soil moisture, soil temperature, skin temperature, snowpack depth, snow water equivalent, canopy water content, and energy flux and water flux of the surface energy and water balance. The North American Land Data Assimilation Scheme (NLDAS2) is used to drive the model. The NLDAS2 datasets extends back to 1979, thereby allowing the model to be run retrospectively for a period of 30 years. Additional model parameters include seasonal maximum snow free albedo maps, monthly greenness

  15. Impact of Spin-up Forcing on Vegetation States Simulated by a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model Coupledwith a Land Surface Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Fang; ZENG Xiaodong; SONG Xiang; TIAN Dongxiao; SHAO Pu; ZHANG Dongling

    2011-01-01

    A dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) coupled with a land surface model (LSM) is generally initialized using a spin-up process to derive a physically-consistent initial condition. Spin-up forcing, which is the atmospheric forcing used to drive the coupled model to equilibrium solutions in the spin-up process,varies across earlier studies. In the present study, the impact of the spin-up forcing in the initialization stage on the fractional coverages (FCs) of plant functional type (PFT) in the subsequent simulation stage are assessed in seven classic climate regions by a modified Community Land Model's Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM). Results show that the impact of spin-up forcing is considerable in all regions except the tropical rainforest climate region (TR) and the wet temperate climate region (WM). In the tropical monsoon climate region (TM), the TR and TM transition region (TR-TM), the dry temperate climate region (DM), the highland climate region (H), and the boreal forest climate region (BF), where FCs are affected by climate non-negligibly, the discrepancies in initial FCs, which represent long-term cumulative response of vegetation to different climate anomalies, are large. Moreover, the large discrepancies in initial FCs usually decay slowly because there are trees or shrubs in the five regions. The intrinsic growth timescales of FCs for tree PFTs and shrub PFTs are long, and the variation of FCs of tree PFTs or shrub PFTs can affect that of grass PFTs.

  16. Sensitivity analysis of runoff modeling to statistical downscaling models in the western Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grouillet, Benjamin; Ruelland, Denis; Vaittinada Ayar, Pradeebane; Vrac, Mathieu

    2016-03-01

    This paper analyzes the sensitivity of a hydrological model to different methods to statistically downscale climate precipitation and temperature over four western Mediterranean basins illustrative of different hydro-meteorological situations. The comparison was conducted over a common 20-year period (1986-2005) to capture different climatic conditions in the basins. The daily GR4j conceptual model was used to simulate streamflow that was eventually evaluated at a 10-day time step. Cross-validation showed that this model is able to correctly reproduce runoff in both dry and wet years when high-resolution observed climate forcings are used as inputs. These simulations can thus be used as a benchmark to test the ability of different statistically downscaled data sets to reproduce various aspects of the hydrograph. Three different statistical downscaling models were tested: an analog method (ANALOG), a stochastic weather generator (SWG) and the cumulative distribution function-transform approach (CDFt). We used the models to downscale precipitation and temperature data from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses as well as outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) (CNRM-CM5 and IPSL-CM5A-MR) over the reference period. We then analyzed the sensitivity of the hydrological model to the various downscaled data via five hydrological indicators representing the main features of the hydrograph. Our results confirm that using high-resolution downscaled climate values leads to a major improvement in runoff simulations in comparison to the use of low-resolution raw inputs from reanalyses or climate models. The results also demonstrate that the ANALOG and CDFt methods generally perform much better than SWG in reproducing mean seasonal streamflow, interannual runoff volumes as well as low/high flow distribution. More generally, our approach provides a guideline to help choose the appropriate statistical downscaling models to be used in climate change impact studies to minimize the range

  17. Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

  18. Statistical analysis and ANN modeling for predicting hydrological extremes under climate change scenarios: the example of a small Mediterranean agro-watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Dokou, Zoi; Karatzas, George P

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to create a modeling management tool for the simulation of extreme flow events under current and future climatic conditions. This tool is a combination of different components and can be applied in complex hydrogeological river basins, where frequent flood and drought phenomena occur. The first component is the statistical analysis of the available hydro-meteorological data. Specifically, principal components analysis was performed in order to quantify the importance of the hydro-meteorological parameters that affect the generation of extreme events. The second component is a prediction-forecasting artificial neural network (ANN) model that simulates, accurately and efficiently, river flow on an hourly basis. This model is based on a methodology that attempts to resolve a very difficult problem related to the accurate estimation of extreme flows. For this purpose, the available measurements (5 years of hourly data) were divided in two subsets: one for the dry and one for the wet periods of the hydrological year. This way, two ANNs were created, trained, tested and validated for a complex Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece. As part of the second management component a statistical downscaling tool was used for the creation of meteorological data according to the higher and lower emission climate change scenarios A2 and B1. These data are used as input in the ANN for the forecasting of river flow for the next two decades. The final component is the application of a meteorological index on the measured and forecasted precipitation and flow data, in order to assess the severity and duration of extreme events.

  19. How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France? A generic modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nabil Laanaia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The implementation of adaptation strategies of agriculture and forestry to climate change is conditioned by the knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the vegetation cycle and of the associated uncertainties. Using the same generic Land Surface Model (LSM to simulate the response of various vegetation types is more straightforward than using several specialized crop and forestry models, as model implementation differences are difficult to assess. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of a LSM to address this issue. Using the SURFEX (“Surface Externalisée” modeling platform, we produced and analyzed 150-yr (1950–2100 simulations of the biomass of four vegetation types (rainfed straw cereals, rainfed grasslands, broadleaf and needleleaf forests and of the soil water content associated to each of these vegetation types over France. Statistical methods were used to quantify the impact of climate change on simulated phenological dates. The duration of soil moisture stress periods increases everywhere in France, especially for grasslands with, on average, an increase of 9 days per year in near-future (NF conditions and 36 days per year in distant-future (DF conditions. For all the vegetation types, leaf onset and the annual maximum LAI occur earlier. For straw cereals in the Languedoc-Provence-Corsica area, NF leaf onset occurs 18 days earlier and 37 days earlier in DF conditions, on average. On the other hand, local discrepancies are simulated for the senescence period (e.g. earlier in western and southern France for broadleaf forests, slightly later in mountainous areas of eastern France for both NF and DF. Changes in phenological dates are more uncertain in DF than in NF conditions in relation to differences in climate models, especially for forests. Finally, it is shown that while changes in leaf onset are mainly driven by air temperature, longer soil moisture stress periods trigger earlier leaf senescence

  20. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  1. Evaluation of root water uptake in the ISBA-A-gs land surface model using agricultural yield statistics over France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Canal

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The interannual variability of cereal grain yield and permanent grassland dry matter yield is simulated over French sites by the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere, CO2-reactive (ISBA-A-gs generic Land Surface Model (LSM. The two soil profile schemes available in the model are used to simulate the above-ground biomass (Bag of cereals and grasslands: a 2-layer force-restore (FR-2L bulk reservoir model and a multi-layer diffusion (DIF model. The DIF model is implemented with or without deep soil layers below the root-zone. The evaluation of the various root water uptake models is achieved by using the French agricultural statistics of Agreste over the 1994–2010 period at 45 cropland and 48 grassland sites, for a range of rooting depths. The number of sites where the simulated annual maximum Bag presents a significant correlation with the yield observations is used as a metric to benchmark the root water uptake models. Significant correlations (p value < 0.01 are found for up to 29% of the cereal sites and 77% of the grassland sites. It is found that modelling additional subroot zone base flow soil layers does not improve (and may even degrade the representation of the interannual variability of the vegetation above-ground biomass. These results are particularly robust for grasslands as calibrated simulations are able to represent the extreme 2003 and 2007 years corresponding to unfavourable and favourable fodder production, respectively.

  2. Value versus Accuracy: application of seasonal forecasts to a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Siddiqui, S.; Badr, H. S.; Shukla, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    The unpredictable nature of precipitation within the East African (EA) region makes it one of the most vulnerable, food insecure regions in the world. There is a vital need for forecasts to inform decision makers, both local and regional, and to help formulate the region's climate change adaptation strategies. Here, we present a suite of different seasonal forecast models, both statistical and dynamical, for the EA region. Objective regionalization is performed for EA on the basis of interannual variability in precipitation in both observations and models. This regionalization is applied as the basis for calculating a number of standard skill scores to evaluate each model's forecast accuracy. A dynamically linked Land Surface Model (LSM) is then applied to determine forecasted flows, which drive the Sudanese Hydroeconomic Optimization Model (SHOM). SHOM combines hydrologic, agronomic and economic inputs to determine the optimal decisions that maximize economic benefits along the Sudanese Blue Nile. This modeling sequence is designed to derive the potential added value of information of each forecasting model to agriculture and hydropower management. A rank of each model's forecasting skill score along with its added value of information is analyzed in order compare the performance of each forecast. This research aims to improve understanding of how characteristics of accuracy, lead time, and uncertainty of seasonal forecasts influence their utility to water resources decision makers who utilize them.

  3. LIS-HYMAP coupled Hydrological Modeling in the Nile River Basin and the Greater Horn of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, H. C.; Getirana, A.; Policelli, F. S.

    2015-12-01

    Water scarcity and resources in Africa have been exacerbated by periodic droughts and floods. However, few studies show the quantitative analysis of water balance or basin-scale hydrological modeling in Northeast Africa. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) is implemented to simulate land surface processes in the Nile River Basin and the Greater Horn of Africa. In this context, the Noah land surface model (LSM) and the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HYMAP) are used to reproduce the water budget and surface water (rivers and floodplains) dynamics in that region. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) meteorological dataset is used to force the system . Due to the unavailability of recent ground-based observations, satellite data are considered to evaluate first model outputs. Water levels at 10 Envisat virtual stations and water discharges at a gauging station are used to provide model performance coefficients (e.g. Nash-Sutcliffe, delay index, relative error). We also compare the spatial and temporal variations of flooded areas from the model with the Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and the Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF)'s MEaSUREs Wetland data. Finally, we estimate surface water storage variations using a hypsographic curve approach with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) topographic data and evaluate the model-derived water storage changes in both river and floodplain. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using LIS-HYMAP coupled modeling to support seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes.

  4. Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Hoshin V.; Kling, Harald; Yilmaz, Koray K.; Martinez-Baquero, Guillermo F.

    2009-01-01

    The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

  5. A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Roux

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available A spatially distributed hydrological model, dedicated to flood simulation, is developed on the basis of physical process representation (infiltration, overland flow, channel routing. Estimation of model parameters requires data concerning topography, soil properties, vegetation and land use. Four parameters are calibrated for the entire catchment using one flood event. Model sensitivity to individual parameters is assessed using Monte-Carlo simulations. Results of this sensitivity analysis with a criterion based on the Nash efficiency coefficient and the error of peak time and runoff are used to calibrate the model. This procedure is tested on the Gardon d'Anduze catchment, located in the Mediterranean zone of southern France. A first validation is conducted using three flood events with different hydrometeorological characteristics. This sensitivity analysis along with validation tests illustrates the predictive capability of the model and points out the possible improvements on the model's structure and parameterization for flash flood forecasting, especially in ungauged basins. Concerning the model structure, results show that water transfer through the subsurface zone also contributes to the hydrograph response to an extreme event, especially during the recession period. Maps of soil saturation emphasize the impact of rainfall and soil properties variability on these dynamics. Adding a subsurface flow component in the simulation also greatly impacts the spatial distribution of soil saturation and shows the importance of the drainage network. Measures of such distributed variables would help discriminating between different possible model structures.

  6. Characterization of impregnated GDC nano structures and their functionality in LSM based cathodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klemensø, Trine; Chatzichristodoulou, Christodoulos; Nielsen, Jimmi

    2012-01-01

    Porous composite cathodes of LSM–YSZ (lanthanum strontium manganite and yttria stabilized zirconia) were impregnated with GDC (gadolinia doped ceria) nano particles. The impregnation process was varied using none or different surfactants (Triton X-45, Triton X-100, P123), and the quantity of impr...

  7. Production of a half cell with a LSM/CGO support for electrochemical flue gas purification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kjeld Bøhm; Kammer Hansen, Kent

    2013-01-01

    Described herein is the production of a half cell with a strontium-substituted lanthanum manganite/cerium gadolinium oxide support and dense cerium gadolinium oxide electrolyte for electrochemical flue gas purification. The half cells were constructed through tape casting a strontium......-substituted lanthanum manganite/cerium gadolinium oxide support and cerium gadolinium oxide electrolyte. The half cells were produced by laminating the support and electrolyte layers followed by sintering. Perfectly flat half cells were constructed with a porous strontium-substituted lanthanum manganite....../cerium gadolinium oxide support layer and dense cerium gadolinium oxide electrolyte by adjusting sintering shrinkage at the electrolyte layer and altering the sintering aid....

  8. Reversible Decomposition of Secondary Phases in BaO Infiltrated LSM Electrodes-Polarization Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Traulsen, Marie Lund; McIntyre, Melissa D.; Norrman, Kion

    2016-01-01

    In operando Raman spectroscopy is used to study ceramic La0.85Sr0.15MnO3±δ electrodes infiltrated with BaO. The aim of this work is to clarify why BaO infiltration reduces the polarization resistance in oxygen containing atmospheres. Prior to the in operando experiments, ex situ X-ray diffraction...... and Raman spectroscopy reveal the formation of a secondary phase, Ba3Mn2O8, on the electrode. During the in operando Raman investigation of the BaO-infiltrated La0.85Sr0.15MnO3±δ electrodes, experiments are performed at 300 and 500 °C with oxygen partial pressure 0.1 atm and with −1 or +1 V Applied...... potential. A changing electrode surface is observed during operation as the Ba3Mn2O8 secondary phase decomposes and manganese oxide accumulates on the electrode surface during cathodic polarization. The observed changes are reversible. These results suggest that the formation of Ba3Mn2O8 is responsible...

  9. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and

  10. Modeling evapotranspiration over China's landmass from 1979-2012 using three surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shaobo; Chen, Baozhang; Zhang, Huifang; Lin, Xiaofeng

    2017-04-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are useful tools to estimate land evapotranspiration at a grid scale and for a long-term applications. Here, the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4.0), Dynamic Land Model (DLM) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model were driven with observation-based forcing data sets, and a multiple LSM ensemble-averaged evapotranspiration (ET) product (LSMs-ET) was developed and its spatial-temporal variations were analyzed for the China landmass over the period 1979-2012. Evaluations against measurements from nine flux towers at site scale and surface water budget based ET at regional scale showed that the LSMs-ET had good performance in most areas of China's landmass. The inter-comparisons between the ET estimates and the independent ET products from remote sensing and upscaling methods suggested that there were a fairly consistent patterns between each data sets. The LSMs-ET produced a mean annual ET of 351.24±10.7 mm yr-1 over 1979-2012, and its spatial-temporal variation analyses showed that (i) there was an overall significant ET increasing trend, with a value of 0.72 mm yr-1 (p < 0.01); (ii) 36.01% of Chinese land had significant increasing trends, ranging from 1 to 9 mm yr-1, while only 6.41% of the area showed significant decreasing trends, ranging from -6.28 to -0.08 mm yr-1. Analyses of ET variations in each climate region clearly showed that the Tibetan Plateau areas were the main contributors to the overall increasing ET trends of China.

  11. Modeling and remote sensing of human induced water cycle change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.

    2016-04-01

    The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management especially during the last century. Since the changes in water cycle can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to account for human land-water management in land surface models (LSMs) which are used for water resources assessment and to simulate the land surface hydrologic processes within Earth system models (ESMs). During the last two decades, noteworthy progress has been made in modeling human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made, especially in representing human factors in large-scale LSMs toward integrating them into ESMs. In this study, an integrated modeling framework of continental-scale water cycle, with explicit representation of climate and human induced forces (e.g., irrigation, groundwater pumping) is developed and used to reconstruct the observed water cycle changes in the past and to attribute the observed changes to climatic and human factors. The new model builds upon two different previously developed models: a global LSM called the Human Impacts and GroundWater in the MATSIRO (HiGW-MAT) and a high-resolution regional groundwater model called the LEAF-Hydro-Flood. The model is used to retro-simulate the hydrologic stores and fluxes in close dialogue with in-situ and GRACE satellite based observations at a wide range of river basin scales around the world, with a particular focus on the changes in groundwater dynamics in northwest India, Pakistan, and the High Plains and Central Valley aquifers in the US.

  12. The impact of model and rainfall forcing errors on characterizing soil moisture uncertainty in land surface modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Maggioni

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

  13. Modeling land-surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions in the community weather and regional climate WRF model (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, F.; Barlage, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been widely used with high-resolution configuration in the weather and regional climate communities, and hence demands its land-surface models to treat not only fast-response processes, such as plant evapotranspiration that are important for numerical weather prediction but also slow-evolving processes such as snow hydrology and interactions between surface soil water and deep aquifer. Correctly representing urbanization, which has been traditionally ignored in coarse-resolution modeling, is critical for applying WRF to air quality and public health research. To meet these demands, numerous efforts have been undertaken to improve land-surface models (LSM) in WRF, including the recent implementation of the Noah-MP (Noah Multiple-Physics). Noah-MP uses multiple options for key sub-grid land-atmosphere interaction processes (Niu et al., 2011; Yang et al., 2011), and contains a separate vegetation canopy representing within- and under-canopy radiation and turbulent processes, a multilayer physically-based snow model, and a photosynthesis canopy resistance parameterization with a dynamic vegetation model. This paper will focus on the interactions between fast and slow land processes through: 1) a benchmarking of the Noah-MP performance, in comparison to five widely-used land-surface models, in simulating and diagnosing snow evolution for complex terrain forested regions, and 2) the effects of interactions between shallow and deep aquifers on regional weather and climate. Moreover, we will provide an overview of recent improvements of the integrated WRF-Urban modeling system, especially its hydrological enhancements that takes into account the effects of lawn irrigation, urban oasis, evaporation from pavements, anthropogenic moisture sources, and a green-roof parameterization.

  14. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Aksoy

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological data shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, stochastic models are proposed for simulating monthly water level data. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The models are derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the dataset. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. In the so-called mono-trend model, the time series is treated as a whole under the hypothesis that the lake water level has an increasing trend. In the second model (so-called multiple-trend, the time series is divided into a number of segments to each a linear trend can be fitted separately. Application on the lake water level data shows that four segments, each fitted with a trend line, are meaningful. Both the mono- and multiple-trend models are used for simulation of synthetic lake water level time series under the hypothesis that the observed mono- and multiple-trend structure of the lake water level persist during the simulation period. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning the future infrastructural projects in surrounding areas of the lake as it generates higher maxima for the simulated lake water level.

  15. Improvement, calibration and validation of a distributed hydrological model over France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Quintana Seguí

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The hydrometeorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM computes water and energy budgets on the land surface and riverflows and the level of several aquifers at the scale of France. SIM is composed of a meteorological analysis system (SAFRAN, a land surface model (ISBA, and a hydrogeological model (MODCOU. In this study, an exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity at saturation is introduced to the model and its impact analysed. It is also studied how calibration modifies the performance of the model. A very simple method of calibration is implemented and applied to the parameters of hydraulic conductivity and subgrid runoff. The study shows that a better description of the hydraulic conductivity of the soil is important to simulate more realistic discharges. It also shows that the calibrated model is more robust than the original SIM. In fact, the calibration mainly affects the processes related to the dynamics of the flow (drainage and runoff, and the rest of relevant processes (like evaporation remain stable. It is also proven that it is only worth introducing the new empirical parameterization of hydraulic conductivity if it is accompanied by a calibration of its parameters, otherwise the simulations can be degraded. In conclusion, it is shown that the new parameterization is necessary to obtain good simulations. Calibration is a tool that must be used to improve the performance of distributed models like SIM that have some empirical parameters.

  16. Prediction of the amount of urban waste solids by applying a gray theoretical model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    Urban waste solids are now becoming one of the most crucial environmental problems. There are several different kinds of technologies normally used for waste solids disposal, among which landfill is more favorable in China than others, especially for urban waste solids. Most of the design works up to now are based on a roughly estimation of the amount of urban waste solids without any theoretical support, which lead to a series problems. To meet the basic information requirements for the design work, the amount of the urban waste solids was predicted in this research by applying the gray theoretical model GM (1,1) through non-linear differential equation simulation. The model parameters were estimated with the least square method (LSM) by running a certain MATALAB program, and the hypothesis test results show that the residual between the prediction value and the actual value approximately comply with the normal distribution , and the probability of the residual within the range (-0.17, 0.19) is more than 95%, which indicate obviously that the model can be well used for the prediction of the amount of waste solids and those had been already testified by the latest two years data about the urban waste solids from Loudi City of China. With this model, the predicted amount of the waste solids produced in Loudi City in the next 30 years is 8049000 ton in total.

  17. New lessons on the Sudd hydrology learned from remote sensing and climate modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Mohamed

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite its local and regional importance, hydro-meteorological data on the Sudd (one of Africa's largest wetlands is very scanty. This is due to the physical and political situation of this area of Sudan. The areal size of the wetland, the evaporation rate, and the influence on the micro and meso climate are still unresolved questions of the Sudd hydrology. The evaporation flux from the Sudd wetland has been estimated using thermal infrared remote sensing data and a parameterization of the surface energy balance (SEBAL model. It is concluded that the actual spatially averaged evaporation from the Sudd wetland over 3 years of different hydrometeorological characteristics varies between 1460 and 1935 mm/yr. This is substantially less than open water evaporation. The wetland area appears to be 70% larger than previously assumed when the Sudd was considered as an open water body. The temporal analysis of the Sudd evaporation demonstrated that the variation of the atmospheric demand in combination with the inter-annual fluctuation of the groundwater table results into a quasi-constant evaporation rate in the Sudd, while open water evaporation depicts a clear seasonal variability. The groundwater table characterizes a distinct seasonality, confirming that substantial parts of the Sudd are seasonal swamps. The new set of spatially distributed evaporation parameters from remote sensing form an important dataset for calibrating a regional climate model enclosing the Nile Basin. The Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO provides an insight not only into the temporal evolution of the hydro-climatological parameters, but also into the land surface climate interactions and embedded feedbacks. The impact of the flooding of the Sudd on the Nile hydroclimatology has been analysed by simulating two land surface scenarios (with and without the Sudd wetland. The paper presents some of the model results addressing the Sudd's influence on rainfall, evaporation

  18. Techniques for Improved Retrospective Fine-scale Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleim-Xiu Land-Surface model (PX LSM) was developed for retrospective meteorological simulations to drive chemical transport models. One of the key features of the PX LSM is the indirect soil moisture and temperature nudging. The idea is to provide a three hourly 2-m temperature ...

  19. Towards Fully Coupled Atmosphere-Hydrology Model Systems: Recent Developments and Performance Evaluation For Different Climate Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunstmann, Harald; Fersch, Benjamin; Rummler, Thomas; Wagner, Sven; Arnault, Joel; Senatore, Alfonso; Gochis, David

    2015-04-01

    Limitations in the adequate representation of terrestrial hydrologic processes controlling the land-atmosphere coupling are assumed to be a significant factor currently limiting prediction skills of regional atmospheric models. The necessity for more comprehensive process descriptions accounting for the interdependencies between water- and energy fluxes at the compartmental interfaces are driving recent developments in hydrometeorological modeling towards more sophisticated treatment of terrestrial hydrologic processes. It is particularly the lateral surface and subsurface water fluxes that are neglected in standard regional atmospheric models. Current developments in enhanced lateral hydrological process descriptions in the WRF model system will be presented. Based on WRF and WRF-Hydro, new modules and concepts for integrating the saturated zone by a 2-dim groundwater scheme and coupling approaches to the unsaturated zone will be presented. The fully coupled model system allows to model the complete regional water cycle, from the top of the atmosphere, via the boundary layer, the land surface, the unsaturated zone and the saturated zone till the flow in the river beds. With this increasing complexity, that also allows to describe the complex interaction of the regional water cycle on different spatial and temporal scales, the reliability and predictability of model simulations can only be shown, if performance is tested for a variety of hydrological variables for different climatological environments. We will show results of fully coupled simulations for the regions of sempiternal humid Southern Bavaria/Germany (rivers Isar and Ammer) and semiarid to subhumid Westafrica (river Sissilli). In both regions, in addition to streamflow measurements, also the validation of heat fluxes is possible via Eddy-Covariance stations within hydrometeorological testbeds. In the German Isar/Ammer region, e.g., we apply the extended WRF-Hydro modeling system in 3km atmospheric- grid

  20. Impact of model structure and parameterization on Penman-Monteith type evaporation models

    KAUST Repository

    Ershadi, A.

    2015-04-12

    sites, where the simpler aerodynamic resistance approach of Mu et al. (2011) showed improved performance. Overall, the results illustrate the sensitivity of Penman-Monteith type models to model structure, parameterization choice and biome type. A particular challenge in flux estimation relates to developing robust and broadly applicable model formulations. With many choices available for use, providing guidance on the most appropriate scheme to employ is required to advance approaches for routine global scale flux estimates, undertake hydrometeorological assessments or develop hydrological forecasting tools, amongst many other applications. In such cases, a multi-model ensemble or biome-specific tiled evaporation product may be an appropriate solution, given the inherent variability in model and parameterization choice that is observed within single product estimates.

  1. Coupling NLDAS Model Output with MODIS Products for Improved Spatial Evapotranspiration Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Hogue, T.

    2008-12-01

    Given the growing concern over regional water supplies in much of the arid west, the quantification of water use by urban and agricultural landscapes is critically important. Water lost through evapotranspiration (ET) typically can not be recaptured or recycled, increasing the need for accurate accounting of ET in regional water management and planning. In this study, we investigate a method to better capture the spatial characteristics of ET by coupling operational North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) outputs and a previously developed MODIS-based Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) product. The resultant product is higher resolution (1km) than the NLDAS model ET outputs (~12.5 km) and provides improved estimates within highly heterogeneous terrain and landscapes. We undertake this study in the Southern California region which provides an excellent case study for examining the developed product's ability to estimate vegetation dynamics over rapidly growing, and highly-irrigated, urban ecosystems. General trends in both products are similar; however the coupled MODIS-NLDAS ET product shows higher spatial variability, better capturing land surface heterogeneity than the NLDAS-based ET. Improved ET representation is especially obvious during the spring season, when precipitation is muted and evaporative flux is dominant. We also quantify seasonal landscape water demand over urban landscapes in several major counties (i.e. Los Angeles, San Diego and Riverside) using the MODIS-NLDAS ET model.

  2. Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

  3. Phase field modeling of microstructure evolution and concomitant effective conductivity change in solid oxide fuel cell electrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yinkai; Cheng, Tian-Le; Wen, You-Hai

    2017-03-01

    Microstructure evolution plays an important role in the performance degradation of SOFC electrodes. In this work, we propose a much improved phase field model to simulate the microstructure evolution in the electrodes of solid oxide fuel cell. We demonstrate that the tunability of the interfacial energy in this model has been significantly enhanced. Parameters are set to fit for the interfacial energies of a typical Ni-YSZ anode, an LSM-YSZ cathode and an artificial reference electrode, respectively. The contact angles at various triple junctions and the microstructure evolutions in two dimensions are calibrated to verify the model. As a demonstration of the capabilities of the model, three dimensional microstructure evolutions are simulated applying the model to the three different electrodes. The time evolutions of grain size and triple phase boundary density are analyzed. In addition, a recently proposed bound charge successive approximation algorithm is employed to calculate the effective conductivity of the electrodes during microstructure evolution. The effective conductivity of all electrodes are found to decrease during the microstructure evolution, which is attributed to the increased tortuosity and the loss of percolated volume fraction of the electrode phase.

  4. A Novel Error Model of Optical Systems and an On-Orbit Calibration Method for Star Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Wang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the on-orbit measurement accuracy of star sensors, the effects of image-plane rotary error, image-plane tilt error and distortions of optical systems resulting from the on-orbit thermal environment were studied in this paper. Since these issues will affect the precision of star image point positions, in this paper, a novel measurement error model based on the traditional error model is explored. Due to the orthonormal characteristics of image-plane rotary-tilt errors and the strong nonlinearity among these error parameters, it is difficult to calibrate all the parameters simultaneously. To solve this difficulty, for the new error model, a modified two-step calibration method based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF and Least Square Methods (LSM is presented. The former one is used to calibrate the main point drift, focal length error and distortions of optical systems while the latter estimates the image-plane rotary-tilt errors. With this calibration method, the precision of star image point position influenced by the above errors is greatly improved from 15.42% to 1.389%. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate that the presented measurement error model for star sensors has higher precision. Moreover, the proposed two-step method can effectively calibrate model error parameters, and the calibration precision of on-orbit star sensors is also improved obviously.

  5. Interfacing the Urban Land-Atmosphere System Through Coupled Urban Canopy and Atmospheric Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jiyun; Wang, Zhi-Hua

    2015-03-01

    We couple a single column model (SCM) to a cutting-edge single-layer urban canopy model (SLUCM) with realistic representation of urban hydrological processes. The land-surface transport of energy and moisture parametrized by the SLUCM provides lower boundary conditions to the overlying atmosphere. The coupled SLUCM-SCM model is tested against field measurements of sensible and latent heat fluxes in the surface layer, as well as vertical profiles of temperature and humidity in the mixed layer under convective conditions. The model is then used to simulate urban land-atmosphere interactions by changing urban geometry, surface albedo, vegetation fraction and aerodynamic roughness. Results show that changes of landscape characteristics have a significant impact on the growth of the boundary layer as well as on the distributions of temperature and humidity in the mixed layer. Overall, the proposed numerical framework provides a useful stand-alone modelling tool, with which the impact of urban land-surface conditions on the local hydrometeorology can be assessed via land-atmosphere interactions.

  6. Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

  7. Spatio-temporal rectification of tower-based eddy-covariance flux measurements for consistently informing process-based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, S.; Xu, K.; Desai, A. R.; Taylor, J. R.; Kljun, N.; Schneider, D.; Kampe, T. U.; Fox, A. M.

    2013-12-01

    Process-based models, such as land surface models (LSMs), allow insight in the spatio-temporal distribution of stocks and the exchange of nutrients, trace gases etc. among environmental compartments. More recently, LSMs also become capable of assimilating time-series of in-situ reference observations. This enables calibrating the underlying functional relationships to site-specific characteristics, or to constrain the model results after each time-step in an attempt to minimize drift. The spatial resolution of LSMs is typically on the order of 10^2-10^4 km2, which is suitable for linking regional to continental scales and beyond. However, continuous in-situ observations of relevant stock and exchange variables, such as tower-based eddy-covariance (EC) fluxes, represent orders of magnitude smaller spatial scales (10^-6-10^1 km2). During data assimilation, this significant gap in spatial representativeness is typically either neglected, or side-stepped using simple tiling approaches. Moreover, at ';coarse' resolutions, a single LSM evaluation per time-step implies linearity among the underlying functional relationships as well as among the sub-grid land cover fractions. This, however, is not warranted for land-atmosphere exchange processes over more complex terrain. Hence, it is desirable to explicitly consider spatial variability at LSM sub-grid scales. Here we present a procedure that determines from a single EC tower the spatially integrated probability density function (PDF) of the surface-atmosphere exchange for individual land covers. These PDFs allow quantifying the expected value, as well as spatial variability over a target domain, can be assimilated in tiling-capable LSMs, and mitigate linearity assumptions at ';coarse' resolutions. The procedure is based on the extraction and extrapolation of environmental response functions (ERFs), for which a technical-oriented companion poster is submitted. In short, the subsequent steps are: (i) Time

  8. Flash flood warning based on fully dynamic hydrology modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pejanovic, Goran; Petkovic, Slavko; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Nickovic, Slobodan

    2016-04-01

    Numerical hydrologic modeling has achieved limited success in the past due to, inter alia, lack of adequate input data. Over the last decade, data availability has improved substantially. For modelling purposes, high-resolution data on topography, river routing, and land cover and soil features have meanwhile become available, as well as the observations such as radar precipitation information. In our study, we have implemented the HYPROM model (Hydrology Prognostic Model) to predict a flash flood event at a smaller-scale basin in Southern Serbia. HYPROM is based on the full set of governing equations for surface hydrological dynamics, in which momentum components, along with the equation of mass continuity, are used as full prognostic equations. HYPROM also includes a river routing module serving as a collector for the extra surface water. Such approach permits appropriate representation of different hydrology scales ranging from flash floods to flows of large and slow river basins. The use of full governing equations, if not appropriately parameterized, may lead to numerical instability systems when the surface water in a model is vanishing. To resolve these modelling problems, an unconditionally stable numerical scheme and a method for height redistribution avoiding shortwave height noise have been developed in HYPROM, which achieve numerical convergence of u, v and h when surface water disappears. We have applied HYPROM, driven by radar-estimated precipitation, to predict flash flooding occurred over smaller and medium-size river basins. Two torrential rainfall cases have been simulated to check the accuracy of the model: the exceptional flooding of May 2014 in Western Serbia, and the convective flash flood of January 2015 in Southern Serbia. The second episode has been successfully predicted by HYPROM in terms of timing and intensity six hours before the event occurred. Such flash flood warning system is in preparation to be operationally implemented in the

  9. Modelling land use change in the Ganga basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulds, Simon; Mijic, Ana; Buytaert, Wouter

    2014-05-01

    Over recent decades the green revolution in India has driven substantial environmental change. Modelling experiments have identified northern India as a "hot spot" of land-atmosphere coupling strength during the boreal summer. However, there is a wide range of sensitivity of atmospheric variables to soil moisture between individual climate models. The lack of a comprehensive land use change dataset to force climate models has been identified as a major contributor to model uncertainty. This work aims to construct a monthly time series dataset of land use change for the period 1966 to 2007 for northern India to improve the quantification of regional hydrometeorological feedbacks. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on board the Aqua and Terra satellites provides near-continuous remotely sensed datasets from 2000 to the present day. However, the quality and availability of satellite products before 2000 is poor. To complete the dataset MODIS images are extrapolated back in time using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) modelling framework, recoded in the R programming language to overcome limitations of the original interface. Non-spatial estimates of land use area published by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) for the study period, available on an annual, district-wise basis, are used as a direct model input. Land use change is allocated spatially as a function of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers identified using logistic regression. The dataset will provide an essential input to a high-resolution, physically-based land-surface model to generate the lower boundary condition to assess the impact of land use change on regional climate.

  10. Assessment of the interannual variability of agricultural yields in France using satellite data and a generic land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canal, Nicolas; Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Szczypta, Camille

    2013-04-01

    The generic ISBA-A-gs Land Surface Model (LSM) is used to simulate the interannual variability of the maximum above-ground biomass (Bagm) of cereals and grasslands in France. Agricultural statistics are used to optimize the maximal available soil water content (MaxAWC) of the model. For a number of administrative units, significant correlations between the simulated Bagm and the agricultural yield statistics are found over the 1994-2010 period. It is shown that the interannual variability of Bagm and of the simulated soil moisture correlate at given key periods. Significant correlations are found between ten-daily averaged simulated soil moisture and the simulated (observed) Bagm (yields). The corresponding plant growth stage is determined through the Leaf Area Index (LAI). Moreover, it is shown that the interannual variability of the modelled LAI and of the new satellite-derived GEOLAND2 LAI are consistent. The predictive value of both simulated and observed LAI on the agricultural yield (10 to 40 days before harvest) is investigated. The scores are used to benchmark different configurations of the model. In particular two contrasting representations of the soil moisture profile are considered: (1) one root-zone layer, (2) several soil layers with an explicit representation of diffusion processes and an exponential root density profile, with or without a deep soil layer below the root-zone.

  11. Regularized plane-wave least-squares Kirchhoff migration

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Xin

    2013-09-22

    A Kirchhoff least-squares migration (LSM) is developed in the prestack plane-wave domain to increase the quality of migration images. A regularization term is included that accounts for mispositioning of reflectors due to errors in the velocity model. Both synthetic and field results show that: 1) LSM with a reflectivity model common for all the plane-wave gathers provides the best image when the migration velocity model is accurate, but it is more sensitive to the velocity errors, 2) the regularized plane-wave LSM is more robust in the presence of velocity errors, and 3) LSM achieves both computational and IO saving by plane-wave encoding compared to shot-domain LSM for the models tested.

  12. An information theoretic approach to select alternate subsets of predictors for data-driven hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taormina, R.; Galelli, S.; Karakaya, G.; Ahipasaoglu, S. D.

    2016-11-01

    This work investigates the uncertainty associated to the presence of multiple subsets of predictors yielding data-driven models with the same, or similar, predictive accuracy. To handle this uncertainty effectively, we introduce a novel input variable selection algorithm, called Wrapper for Quasi Equally Informative Subset Selection (W-QEISS), specifically conceived to identify all alternate subsets of predictors in a given dataset. The search process is based on a four-objective optimization problem that minimizes the number of selected predictors, maximizes the predictive accuracy of a data-driven model and optimizes two information theoretic metrics of relevance and redundancy, which guarantee that the selected subsets are highly informative and with little intra-subset similarity. The algorithm is first tested on two synthetic test problems and then demonstrated on a real-world streamflow prediction problem in the Yampa River catchment (US). Results show that complex hydro-meteorological datasets are characterized by a large number of alternate subsets of predictors, which provides useful insights on the underlying physical processes. Furthermore, the presence of multiple subsets of predictors-and associated models-helps find a better trade-off between different measures of predictive accuracy commonly adopted for hydrological modelling problems.

  13. The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): Its structure, connection to other international initiatives and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagener, T; Hogue, T; Schaake, J; Duan, Q; Gupta, H; Andreassian, V; Hall, A; Leavesley, G

    2006-05-08

    The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed at developing enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrologic models and in land surface parameterization schemes connected to atmospheric models. The MOPEX science strategy involves: database creation, a priori parameter estimation methodology development, parameter refinement or calibration, and the demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and land surface characteristics data for many hydrologic basins in the United States (US) and in other countries. This database is being continuously expanded to include basins from various hydroclimatic regimes throughout the world. MOPEX research has largely been driven by a series of international workshops that have brought interested hydrologists and land surface modelers together to exchange knowledge and experience in developing and applying parameter estimation techniques. With its focus on parameter estimation, MOPEX plays an important role in the international context of other initiatives such as GEWEX, PUB and PILPS. This paper outlines the MOPEX initiative, discusses its role in the scientific community and briefly states future directions.

  14. Automatic orientation and 3D modelling from markerless rock art imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerma, J. L.; Navarro, S.; Cabrelles, M.; Seguí, A. E.; Hernández, D.

    2013-02-01

    This paper investigates the use of two detectors and descriptors on image pyramids for automatic image orientation and generation of 3D models. The detectors and descriptors replace manual measurements and are used to detect, extract and match features across multiple imagery. The Scale-Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) and the Speeded Up Robust Features (SURF) will be assessed based on speed, number of features, matched features, and precision in image and object space depending on the adopted hierarchical matching scheme. The influence of applying in addition Area Based Matching (ABM) with normalised cross-correlation (NCC) and least squares matching (LSM) is also investigated. The pipeline makes use of photogrammetric and computer vision algorithms aiming minimum interaction and maximum accuracy from a calibrated camera. Both the exterior orientation parameters and the 3D coordinates in object space are sequentially estimated combining relative orientation, single space resection and bundle adjustment. The fully automatic image-based pipeline presented herein to automate the image orientation step of a sequence of terrestrial markerless imagery is compared with manual bundle block adjustment and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) which serves as ground truth. The benefits of applying ABM after FBM will be assessed both in image and object space for the 3D modelling of a complex rock art shelter.

  15. Flood forecasting using a fully distributed model: application of the TOPKAPI model to the Upper Xixian Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Liu

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available TOPKAPI is a physically-based, fully distributed hydrological model with a simple and parsimonious parameterisation. The original TOPKAPI is structured around five modules that represent evapotranspiration, snowmelt, soil water, surface water and channel water, respectively. Percolation to deep soil layers was ignored in the old version of the TOPKAPI model since it was not important in the basins to which the model was originally applied. Based on published literature, this study developed a new version of the TOPKAPI model, in which the new modules of interception, infiltration, percolation, groundwater flow and lake/reservoir routing are included. This paper presents an application study that makes a first attempt to derive information from public domains through the internet on the topography, soil and land use types for a case study Chinese catchment - the Upper Xixian catchment in Huaihe River with an area of about 10000 km2, and apply a new version of TOPKAPI to the catchment for flood simulation. A model parameter value adjustment was performed using six months of the 1998 dataset. Calibration did not use a curve fitting process, but was chiefly based upon moderate variations of parameter values from those estimated on physical grounds, as is common in traditional calibration. The hydrometeorological dataset of 2002 was then used to validate the model, both against the outlet discharge as well as at an internal gauging station. Finally, to complete the model performance analysis, parameter uncertainty and its effects on predictive uncertainty were also assessed by estimating a posterior parameter probability density via Bayesian inference.

  16. Studying urban land-atmospheric interactions by coupling an urban canopy model with a single column atmospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, J.; Wang, Z.

    2013-12-01

    Studying urban land-atmospheric interactions by coupling an urban canopy model with a single column atmospheric models Jiyun Song and Zhi-Hua Wang School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, PO Box 875306, Tempe, AZ 85287-5306 Landuse landcover changes in urban area will modify surface energy budgets, turbulent fluxes as well as dynamic and thermodynamic structures of the overlying atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In order to study urban land-atmospheric interactions, we coupled a single column atmospheric model (SCM) to a cutting-edge single layer urban canopy model (SLUCM). Modification of surface parameters such as the fraction of vegetation and engineered pavements, thermal properties of building and pavement materials, and geometrical features of street canyon, etc. in SLUCM dictates the evolution of surface balance of energy, water and momentum. The land surface states then provide lower boundary conditions to the overlying atmosphere, which in turn modulates the modification of ABL structure as well as vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, wind speed and tracer gases. The coupled SLUCM-SCM model is tested against field measurements of surface layer fluxes as well as profiles of temperature and humidity in the mixed layer under convective conditions. After model test, SLUCM-SCM is used to simulate the effect of changing urban land surface conditions on the evolution of ABL structure and dynamics. Simulation results show that despite the prescribed atmospheric forcing, land surface states impose significant impact on the physics of the overlying vertical atmospheric layer. Overall, this numerical framework provides a useful standalone modeling tool to assess the impacts of urban land surface conditions on the local hydrometeorology through land-atmospheric interactions. It also has potentially far-reaching implications to urban ecohydrological services for cities under future expansion and climate challenges.

  17. Comparative Study Among Lease Square Method, Steepest Descent Method, and Conjugate Gradient Method for Atmopsheric Sounder Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kohei Arai

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Comparative study among Least Square Method: LSM, Steepest Descent Method: SDM, and Conjugate Gradient Method: CGM for atmospheric sounder data analysis (estimation of vertical profiles for water vapor is conducted. Through simulation studies, it is found that CGM shows the best estimation accuracy followed by SDM and LSM. Method dependency on atmospheric models is also clarified.

  18. Hydrological Model Parameter (In)stability - Implications for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vormoor, K.; Lawrence, D.; Heistermann, M.; Bronstert, A.

    2014-12-01

    Using a multi-model/multi-parameter ensemble consisting of (i) eight combinations of global and regional climate models, (ii) two statistical downscaling methods, and (iii) the HBV hydrological model with 25 calibrated parameter sets, we simulated daily discharge for a control (1961-1990) and future period (2071-2099) to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on flood seasonality and flood generating processes (FGPs) in six catchments with mixed snowmelt-rainfall regimes in Norway. For the catchments in northern and south-eastern Norway, we found more frequent autumn and winter events (partly also of higher magnitude) leading to possible shifts in the current flood regime from spring and early summer to autumn and winter. The possible shifts in flood regimes correspond to an increasing importance of rainfall as a FGP in all catchments considered, while rainfall replaces snowmelt as the dominant FGP in those catchments showing the largest changes in flood seasonality. The analysis of the relative role of the single ensemble components in contributing to overall uncertainty show that hydrological model parameter uncertainty is highest in those catchments showing the largest shifts in flood seasonality and FGPs. This points to difficulties in the time-transferability of the calibrated hydrological parameter sets under changing hydrometeorological conditions and highlights the need of alternative calibration approaches. In this study, we detect time periods in the observation data sets of catchments showing changes in observed hydrometeorological conditions and differing phases of predominant flood seasonality. The HBV model is calibrated for the detected time periods using the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) global optimization algorithm, and split sampling tests are applied to study the role of the calibrated hydrological parameter sets under changing conditions. Preliminary results show that the hydrological model parameters are sensitive to the

  19. Value of bias-corrected satellite rainfall products in SWAT simulations and comparison with other models in the Mara basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Abitew, T. A.; Roy, T.; van Griensven, A.; Valdes, J. B.; Bauwens, W.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrometeorological monitoring networks are often limited for basins located in the developing world such as the transboundary Mara Basin. The advent of earth observing systems have brought satellite rainfall and evapotranspiration products, which can be used to force hydrological models in data scarce basins. The objective of this study is to develop improved hydrologic simulations using distributed satellite rainfall products (CMORPH and TMPA) with a bias-correction, and compare the performance with different input data and models. The bias correction approach for the satellite-products (CMORPH and TMPA) involves the use of a distributed reference dataset (CHIRPS) and historical ground gauge records. We have applied the bias-corrected satellite products to force the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Mara Basin. Firstly, we calibrate the SWAT parameters related to ET simulation using ET from remote sensing. Then, the SWAT parameters that control surface processes are calibrated using the available limited flow. From the analysis, we noted that not only the bias-corrected satellite rainfall but also augmenting limited flow data with monthly remote sensing ET improves the model simulation skill and reduces the parameter uncertainty to some extent. We have planned to compare these results from a lumped model forced by the same input satellite rainfall. This will shed light on the potential of satellite rainfall and remote sensing ET along with in situ data for hydrological processes modeling and the inherent uncertainty in a data scarce basin.

  20. Multi-site evaluation of the JULES land surface model using global and local data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Slevin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the ability of the JULES land surface model (LSM to simulate photosynthesis using local and global data sets at 12 FLUXNET sites. Model parameters include site-specific (local values for each flux tower site and the default parameters used in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM climate model. Firstly, gross primary productivity (GPP estimates from driving JULES with data derived from local site measurements were compared to observations from the FLUXNET network. When using local data, the model is biased with total annual GPP underestimated by 16% across all sites compared to observations. Secondly, GPP estimates from driving JULES with data derived from global parameter and atmospheric reanalysis (on scales of 100 km or so were compared to FLUXNET observations. It was found that model performance decreases further, with total annual GPP underestimated by 30% across all sites compared to observations. When JULES was driven using local parameters and global meteorological data, it was shown that global data could be used in place of FLUXNET data with a 7% reduction in total annual simulated GPP. Thirdly, the global meteorological data sets, WFDEI and PRINCETON, were compared to local data to find that the WFDEI data set more closely matches the local meteorological measurements (FLUXNET. Finally, the JULES phenology model was tested by comparing results from simulations using the default phenology model to those forced with the remote sensing product MODIS leaf area index (LAI. Forcing the model with daily satellite LAI results in only small improvements in predicted GPP at a small number of sites, compared to using the default phenology model.

  1. Natural and human causes of a flash flood in a small catchment (Rhodes Island, Greece) based on atmospheric forcing and runoff modeling techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karalis, Sotirios; Katsafados, Petros; Karymbalis, Efthimios; Tsanakas, Konstantinos; Valkanou, Kanella

    2014-05-01

    This study investigates the natural (hydro-meteorological and geomorphological) and human induced factors responsible for a flash flood event that occurred on November 22nd, 2013 in a small ungauged catchment (covering an area of about 24km2) of Rhodes Island, Greece. The flash flooding killed four people and caused over â¬10 million worth of damages located mainly around the Kremasti village. In this study the reconstruction of this extreme hydro-meteorological event is attempted by using detailed spatiotemporal rainfall information, a physically based hydrological model (LISEM) and the 1D hydraulic model HEC-RAS. Furthermore, the human impacts, which are responsible for extreme flood discharge within the drainage basin, are recorded and mapped. The major meteorological feature of this event is associated with the passage of a cold front over SE Aegean Sea. The destructive flash flood was triggered by the extreme precipitation (almost 100 mm in 4 hours was recorded at the meteorological stations closest to the flooded area). An advanced nowcasting method is applied in order to provide high spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation over the catchment area. OpenLisem (Limbourg Soil Erosion Model) is used as a runoff model for exploring the response of the catchment. It is a freeware raster model (based on PCRaster) that simulates the surface water and sediment balance for every gridcell. It is event based and has fine spatial and temporal resolution. The model is designed to simulate the effects of detailed land use changes or conservation measures on runoff, flooding and erosion during heavy rainstorms. Since OpenLISEM provides a detailed simulation of runoff processes, it is very demanding on input data (it requires a minimum of 24 maps depending on the input options). The PCRaster GIS functionality was used to derive the necessary data from the basic maps (DEM, land unit map and map of impermeable areas). The sources for the basic maps include geological

  2. PREPARATION OF THE DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL FOR ORTHOPHOTO CR PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Švec

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Orthophoto CR is produced in co-operation with the Land Survey Office and the Military Geographical and Hydrometeorological Office. The product serves to ensure a defence of the state, integrated crisis management, civilian tasks in support of the state administration and the local self-government of the Czech Republic as well. It covers the whole area of the Republic and for ensuring its up-to-datedness is reproduced in the biennial period. As the project is countrywide, it keeps the project within the same parameters in urban and rural areas as well. Due to economic reasons it can´t be produced as a true ortophoto because it requires large side and forward overlaps of the aerial photographs and a preparation of the digital surf