WorldWideScience

Sample records for model internal variability

  1. A geometric model for magnetizable bodies with internal variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Restuccia, L

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available In a geometrical framework for thermo-elasticity of continua with internal variables we consider a model of magnetizable media previously discussed and investigated by Maugin. We assume as state variables the magnetization together with its space gradient, subjected to evolution equations depending on both internal and external magnetic fields. We calculate the entropy function and necessary conditions for its existence.

  2. Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanvyve, Emilie; Ypersele, Jean-Pascal van [Universite catholique de Louvain, Institut d' astronomie et de geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hall, Nicholas [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales/Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse Cedex 9 (France); Messager, Christophe [University of Leeds, Institute for Atmospheric Science, Environment, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds (United Kingdom); Leroux, Stephanie [Universite Joseph Fourier, Laboratoire d' etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2008-02-15

    Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales. (orig.)

  3. Internal variability of a 3-D ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjarne Büchmann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The Defence Centre for Operational Oceanography runs operational forecasts for the Danish waters. The core setup is a 60-layer baroclinic circulation model based on the General Estuarine Transport Model code. At intervals, the model setup is tuned to improve ‘model skill’ and overall performance. It has been an area of concern that the uncertainty inherent to the stochastical/chaotic nature of the model is unknown. Thus, it is difficult to state with certainty that a particular setup is improved, even if the computed model skill increases. This issue also extends to the cases, where the model is tuned during an iterative process, where model results are fed back to improve model parameters, such as bathymetry.An ensemble of identical model setups with slightly perturbed initial conditions is examined. It is found that the initial perturbation causes the models to deviate from each other exponentially fast, causing differences of several PSUs and several kelvin within a few days of simulation. The ensemble is run for a full year, and the long-term variability of salinity and temperature is found for different regions within the modelled area. Further, the developing time scale is estimated for each region, and great regional differences are found – in both variability and time scale. It is observed that periods with very high ensemble variability are typically short-term and spatially limited events.A particular event is examined in detail to shed light on how the ensemble ‘behaves’ in periods with large internal model variability. It is found that the ensemble does not seem to follow any particular stochastic distribution: both the ensemble variability (standard deviation or range as well as the ensemble distribution within that range seem to vary with time and place. Further, it is observed that a large spatial variability due to mesoscale features does not necessarily correlate to large ensemble variability. These findings bear

  4. Internal variables in thermoelasticity

    CERN Document Server

    Berezovski, Arkadi

    2017-01-01

    This book describes an effective method for modeling advanced materials like polymers, composite materials and biomaterials, which are, as a rule, inhomogeneous. The thermoelastic theory with internal variables presented here provides a general framework for predicting a material’s reaction to external loading. The basic physical principles provide the primary theoretical information, including the evolution equations of the internal variables. The cornerstones of this framework are the material representation of continuum mechanics, a weak nonlocality, a non-zero extra entropy flux, and a consecutive employment of the dissipation inequality. Examples of thermoelastic phenomena are provided, accompanied by detailed procedures demonstrating how to simulate them.

  5. Internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability in the Kiel climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Ding, Hui; Keenlyside, Noel S. [Leibniz-Inst. fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    The internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability is investigated by means of a multimillennial control run and forced experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The internal variability is studied by analyzing the control run. The externally forced variability is investigated in a run with periodic millennial solar forcing and in greenhouse warming experiments with enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. The surface air temperature (SAT) averaged over the Northern Hemisphere simulated in the control run displays enhanced variability relative to the red background at decadal, centennial, and millennial timescales. Special emphasis is given to the variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). The MOC plays an important role in the generation of internal climate modes. Furthermore, the MOC provides a strong negative feedback on the Northern Hemisphere SAT in both the solar and greenhouse warming experiments, thereby moderating the direct effects of the external forcing in the North Atlantic. The implications of the results for decadal predictability are discussed. (orig.)

  6. Thermodynamic consistency of viscoplastic material models involving external variable rates in the evolution equations for the internal variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malmberg, T.

    1993-09-01

    The objective of this study is to derive and investigate thermodynamic restrictions for a particular class of internal variable models. Their evolution equations consist of two contributions: the usual irreversible part, depending only on the present state, and a reversible but path dependent part, linear in the rates of the external variables (evolution equations of ''mixed type''). In the first instance the thermodynamic analysis is based on the classical Clausius-Duhem entropy inequality and the Coleman-Noll argument. The analysis is restricted to infinitesimal strains and rotations. The results are specialized and transferred to a general class of elastic-viscoplastic material models. Subsequently, they are applied to several viscoplastic models of ''mixed type'', proposed or discussed in the literature (Robinson et al., Krempl et al., Freed et al.), and it is shown that some of these models are thermodynamically inconsistent. The study is closed with the evaluation of the extended Clausius-Duhem entropy inequality (concept of Mueller) where the entropy flux is governed by an assumed constitutive equation in its own right; also the constraining balance equations are explicitly accounted for by the method of Lagrange multipliers (Liu's approach). This analysis is done for a viscoplastic material model with evolution equations of the ''mixed type''. It is shown that this approach is much more involved than the evaluation of the classical Clausius-Duhem entropy inequality with the Coleman-Noll argument. (orig.) [de

  7. A thermomechanical constitutive model for cemented granular materials with quantifiable internal variables. Part I-Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tengattini, Alessandro; Das, Arghya; Nguyen, Giang D.; Viggiani, Gioacchino; Hall, Stephen A.; Einav, Itai

    2014-10-01

    This is the first of two papers introducing a novel thermomechanical continuum constitutive model for cemented granular materials. Here, we establish the theoretical foundations of the model, and highlight its novelties. At the limit of no cement, the model is fully consistent with the original Breakage Mechanics model. An essential ingredient of the model is the use of measurable and micro-mechanics based internal variables, describing the evolution of the dominant inelastic processes. This imposes a link between the macroscopic mechanical behavior and the statistically averaged evolution of the microstructure. As a consequence this model requires only a few physically identifiable parameters, including those of the original breakage model and new ones describing the cement: its volume fraction, its critical damage energy and bulk stiffness, and the cohesion.

  8. Quantifying uncertainty due to internal variability using high-resolution regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutmann, E. D.; Ikeda, K.; Deser, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Arnold, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    The uncertainty in future climate predictions is as large or larger than the mean climate change signal. As such, any predictions of future climate need to incorporate and quantify the sources of this uncertainty. One of the largest sources comes from the internal, chaotic, variability within the climate system itself. This variability has been approximated using the 30 ensemble members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble. Here we examine the wet and dry end members of this ensemble for cool-season precipitation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains with a set of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate the periods 1990-2000, 2025-2035, and 2070-2080 on a 4km grid. These simulations show that the broad patterns of change depicted in CESM are inherited by the high-resolution simulations; however, the differences in the height and location of the mountains in the WRF simulation, relative to the CESM simulation, means that the location and magnitude of the precipitation changes are very different. We further show that high-resolution simulations with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) predict a similar spatial pattern in the change signal as WRF for these ensemble members. We then use ICAR to examine the rest of the CESM Large Ensemble as well as the uncertainty in the regional climate model due to the choice of physics parameterizations.

  9. Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

  10. Singular vector decomposition of the internal variability of the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diaconescu, Emilia Paula; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Zadra, Ayrton [University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, P.O. Box 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Meteorological Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2012-03-15

    Previous studies have shown that Regional Climate Models (RCM) internal variability (IV) fluctuates in time depending on synoptic events. This study focuses on the physical understanding of episodes with rapid growth of IV. An ensemble of 21 simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, was run over North America using version 5 of the Canadian RCM (CRCM). The IV is quantified in terms of energy of CRCM perturbations with respect to a reference simulation. The working hypothesis is that IV is arising through rapidly growing perturbations developed in dynamically unstable regions. If indeed IV is triggered by the growth of unstable perturbations, a large proportion of the CRCM perturbations must project onto the most unstable singular vectors (SVs). A set of ten SVs was computed to identify the orthogonal set of perturbations that provide the maximum growth with respect to the dry total-energy norm during the course of the CRCM ensemble of simulations. CRCM perturbations were then projected onto the subspace of SVs. The analysis of one episode of rapid growth of IV is presented in detail. It is shown that a large part of the IV growth is explained by initially small-amplitude unstable perturbations represented by the ten leading SVs, the SV subspace accounting for over 70% of the CRCM IV growth in 36 h. The projection on the leading SV at final time is greater than the projection on the remaining SVs and there is a high similarity between the CRCM perturbations and the leading SV after 24-36 h tangent-linear model integration. The vertical structure of perturbations revealed that the baroclinic conversion is the dominant process in IV growth for this particular episode. (orig.)

  11. Modelling of the fuel mechanical behavior: from creep laws to internal variable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leclercq, S.

    1998-01-01

    Creep laws such as that of Bohaboy are commonly used to simulate the fuel pellet response to the demands placed upon it during its use. These laws are sufficient for describing the base operating conditions (where only creep appears), but they require improvement for describing power ramp conditions (where hardening and relaxation appear). The aim of the present paper is to develop a framework in which it will be possible to build models that are more representative of the fuel pellet in pile conditions. The approach presented here is based on the thermodynamics of irreversible processes and continuum mechanics. It is postulated that the material is made of a mixture of porous and 'sound' material. The evolution of porosity is deduced from experimental results in order to be consistent with the second law of thermodynamics. This implies the assumption of a threshold value for the existence of densification and swelling. (orig.)

  12. Modelling of the fuel mechanical behavior. From creep laws to internal variable models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leclercq, S. [Electricite de France (EDF), 77 - Moret sur Loing (France)

    1997-12-31

    Creep laws are nowadays commonly used to simulate the fuel rod response to the solicitations it faces during its life. These laws are sufficient for describing the base operating conditions (where only creep appears), but they have to be improved for power ramp conditions (where hardening and relaxation appear). The main objective of the present paper was to clearly exhibit the important role of the porosity on the fuel mechanical behavior. It has been shown that viscoplastic properties are activated by the evolution of the porosity. A general framework has been developed, in agreement with the principles of thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The major result of the present model concerns the fact that the viscoplastic strain is non-deviatoric, due to the porosity growth. The purely deviatoric part of the non-linear strain is taken as the Lemaitre law, but any other classical equation may be used. As concerns the hydrostatic part, it is derived from simple assumptions. The coupling between the volume fraction of porosity and the mechanical stress field is introduced into the dissipation term. (author) 6 refs.

  13. Modelling of the fuel mechanical behavior. From creep laws to internal variable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leclercq, S.

    1997-01-01

    Creep laws are nowadays commonly used to simulate the fuel rod response to the solicitations it faces during its life. These laws are sufficient for describing the base operating conditions (where only creep appears), but they have to be improved for power ramp conditions (where hardening and relaxation appear). The main objective of the present paper was to clearly exhibit the important role of the porosity on the fuel mechanical behavior. It has been shown that viscoplastic properties are activated by the evolution of the porosity. A general framework has been developed, in agreement with the principles of thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The major result of the present model concerns the fact that the viscoplastic strain is non-deviatoric, due to the porosity growth. The purely deviatoric part of the non-linear strain is taken as the Lemaitre law, but any other classical equation may be used. As concerns the hydrostatic part, it is derived from simple assumptions. The coupling between the volume fraction of porosity and the mechanical stress field is introduced into the dissipation term. (author)

  14. Climatology and internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, S.K.; Hense, A. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Legutke, S.; Kwon, W.T. [Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul (Korea). Meteorological Research Inst.

    2004-03-01

    The climatology and internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHO-G are analyzed and compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux corrections for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no climate drift for 1000 years, but no flux corrections for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modeled near surface temperatures shows that the observed global warming at near surface level is beyond the range of internal variability produced by ECHO-G. The simulated global mean near surface temperatures, however, show a two-year spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the ENSO signal. Consequently, the interannual variability (3-9 years) is underestimated. The overall ENSO structure such as the tropical SST climate and its seasonal cycle, a single ITCZ in the eastern tropical Pacific, and the ENSO phase-locking to the annual cycle are simulated reasonably well by ECHO-G. However, the amplitude of SST variability is overestimated in the eastern equatorial pacific and the observed westward propagation of zonal wind stress over the equatorial pacific is not captured by the model. ENSO-related teleconnection patterns of near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure are reproduced realistically. The station-based NAO index in the model exhibits a 'white' noise spectrum similar to the observed and the NAO-related patterns of near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure are also simulated successfully. However, the model overestimates the additional warming over the north pacific in the high index

  15. The application of an internal state variable model to the viscoplastic behavior of irradiated ASTM 304L stainless steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAnulty, Michael J., E-mail: mcanulmj@id.doe.gov [Department of Energy, 1955 Fremont Avenue, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Potirniche, Gabriel P. [Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844 (United States); Tokuhiro, Akira [Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Idaho, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States)

    2012-09-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An internal state variable approach is used to predict the plastic behavior of irradiated metals. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model predicts uniaxial tensile test data for irradiated 304L stainless steel. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model is implemented as a user-defined material subroutine in the finite element code ABAQUS. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Results are compared for the unirradiated and irradiated specimens loaded in uniaxial tension. - Abstract: Neutron irradiation of metals results in decreased fracture toughness, decreased ductility, increased yield strength and increased ductile-to-brittle transition temperature. Designers use the most limiting material properties throughout the reactor vessel lifetime to determine acceptable safety margins. To reduce analysis conservatism, a new model is proposed based on an internal state variable approach for the plastic behavior of unirradiated ductile materials to support its use for analyzing irradiated materials. The proposed modeling addresses low temperature irradiation of 304L stainless steel, and predicts uniaxial tensile test data of irradiated experimental specimens. The model was implemented as a user-defined material subroutine (UMAT) in the finite element software ABAQUS. Results are compared between the unirradiated and irradiated specimens subjected to tension tests.

  16. Kilometric Scale Modeling of the North West European Shelf Seas: Exploring the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Internal Tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guihou, K.; Polton, J.; Harle, J.; Wakelin, S.; O'Dea, E.; Holt, J.

    2018-01-01

    The North West European Shelf break acts as a barrier to the transport and exchange between the open ocean and the shelf seas. The strong spatial variability of these exchange processes is hard to fully explore using observations, and simulations generally are too coarse to simulate the fine-scale processes over the whole region. In this context, under the FASTNEt program, a new NEMO configuration of the North West European Shelf and Atlantic Margin at 1/60° (˜1.8 km) has been developed, with the objective to better understand and quantify the seasonal and interannual variability of shelf break processes. The capability of this configuration to reproduce the seasonal cycle in SST, the barotropic tide, and fine-resolution temperature profiles is assessed against a basin-scale (1/12°, ˜9 km) configuration and a standard regional configuration (7 km resolution). The seasonal cycle is well reproduced in all configurations though the fine-resolution allows the simulation of smaller scale processes. Time series of temperature at various locations on the shelf show the presence of internal waves with a strong spatiotemporal variability. Spectral analysis of the internal waves reveals peaks at the diurnal, semidiurnal, inertial, and quarter-diurnal bands, which are only realistically reproduced in the new configuration. Tidally induced pycnocline variability is diagnosed in the model and shown to vary with the spring neap cycle with mean displacement amplitudes in excess of 2 m for 30% of the stratified domain. With sufficiently fine resolution, internal tides are shown to be generated at numerous bathymetric features resulting in a complex pycnocline displacement superposition pattern.

  17. A thermomechanical constitutive model for cemented granular materials with quantifiable internal variables. Part II - Validation and localization analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Arghya; Tengattini, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang D.; Viggiani, Gioacchino; Hall, Stephen A.; Einav, Itai

    2014-10-01

    We study the mechanical failure of cemented granular materials (e.g., sandstones) using a constitutive model based on breakage mechanics for grain crushing and damage mechanics for cement fracture. The theoretical aspects of this model are presented in Part I: Tengattini et al. (2014), A thermomechanical constitutive model for cemented granular materials with quantifiable internal variables, Part I - Theory (Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of Solids, 10.1016/j.jmps.2014.05.021). In this Part II we investigate the constitutive and structural responses of cemented granular materials through analyses of Boundary Value Problems (BVPs). The multiple failure mechanisms captured by the proposed model enable the behavior of cemented granular rocks to be well reproduced for a wide range of confining pressures. Furthermore, through comparison of the model predictions and experimental data, the micromechanical basis of the model provides improved understanding of failure mechanisms of cemented granular materials. In particular, we show that grain crushing is the predominant inelastic deformation mechanism under high pressures while cement failure is the relevant mechanism at low pressures. Over an intermediate pressure regime a mixed mode of failure mechanisms is observed. Furthermore, the micromechanical roots of the model allow the effects on localized deformation modes of various initial microstructures to be studied. The results obtained from both the constitutive responses and BVP solutions indicate that the proposed approach and model provide a promising basis for future theoretical studies on cemented granular materials.

  18. Cutting-in control of the variable speed constant frequency wind power generator based on internal model controller

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo Jindong; Xu Honghua; Zhao Dongli [Inst. of Electrical Engineering, CAS, BJ (China)

    2008-07-01

    The no-impact-current cutting-in-network control is the key of variable speed constant frequency (VSCF) wind power control system. Based on the stator flux linkage oriented control theory of doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), the field-oriented vector control technique and the internal model controller (IMC) are transplanted into the voltage control of DFIG and a novel cutting-in control strategy is obtained. The strategy does not need the exact inductor generator model, and has perfect performance without overshoot. The structure of the controller is simple, and the only parameter to be adjusted is directly related to system performance, so the strategy is easy to realize. Finally the strategy is studied by simulation using Matlab, the results of the simulation show that the control strategy can effectively control the stator voltage. (orig.)

  19. The mechanism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Friedrich

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The mechanism triggering centennial-to-millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC in the earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM is investigated. It is found that for several climate boundary conditions such as low obliquity values (~22.1° or LGM-albedo, internally generated centennial-to-millennial-scale variability occurs in the North Atlantic region. Stochastic excitations of the density-driven overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas can create regional sea-ice anomalies and a subsequent reorganization of the atmospheric circulation. The resulting remote atmospheric anomalies over the Hudson Bay can release freshwater pulses into the Labrador Sea and significantly increase snow fall in this region leading to a subsequent reduction of convective activity. The millennial-scale AMOC oscillations disappear if LGM bathymetry (with closed Hudson Bay is prescribed or if freshwater pulses are suppressed artificially. Furthermore, our study documents the process of the AMOC recovery as well as the global marine and terrestrial carbon cycle response to centennial-to-millennial-scale AMOC variability.

  20. On a model of mixtures with internal variables: Extended Liu procedure for the exploitation of the entropy principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Oliveri

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The exploitation of second law of thermodynamics for a mixture of two fluids with a scalar internal variable and a first order nonlocal state space is achieved by using the extended Liu approach. This method requires to insert as constraints in the entropy inequality either the field equations or their gradient extensions. Consequently, the thermodynamic restrictions imposed by the entropy principle are derived without introducing extra terms neither in the energy balance equation nor in the entropy inequality.

  1. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - I. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-08-01

    The internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled atmosphere/ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed using near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure variables, and is compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux adjustments for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no significant climate drift for 1000 yr, but no flux adjustments for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability of the three variables. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 (atmospheric component of ECHO-G) stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modelled near-surface temperatures shows that the observed near-surface global warming is larger than internal variability produced by ECHO-G, supporting previous studies. The simulated global mean near-surface temperatures, however, show a 2-yr spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the El Nino Southern Oscillation signal. Consequently, the interannual variability (39 yr) is underestimated.

  2. The meganism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friedrich, T.; Timmermann, A.; Menviel, L.; Elison Timm, O.; Mouchet, A.; Roche, D.M.V.A.P.

    2010-01-01

    The mechanism triggering centennial-to-millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM is investigated. It is found that for several climate boundary conditions such as low obliquity values (∼22.1 )

  3. Electrochemical state and internal variables estimation using a reduced-order physics-based model of a lithium-ion cell and an extended Kalman filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stetzel, KD; Aldrich, LL; Trimboli, MS; Plett, GL

    2015-03-15

    This paper addresses the problem of estimating the present value of electrochemical internal variables in a lithium-ion cell in real time, using readily available measurements of cell voltage, current, and temperature. The variables that can be estimated include any desired set of reaction flux and solid and electrolyte potentials and concentrations at any set of one-dimensional spatial locations, in addition to more standard quantities such as state of charge. The method uses an extended Kalman filter along with a one-dimensional physics-based reduced-order model of cell dynamics. Simulations show excellent and robust predictions having dependable error bounds for most internal variables. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Variable importance in latent variable regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kvalheim, O.M.; Arneberg, R.; Bleie, O.; Rajalahti, T.; Smilde, A.K.; Westerhuis, J.A.

    2014-01-01

    The quality and practical usefulness of a regression model are a function of both interpretability and prediction performance. This work presents some new graphical tools for improved interpretation of latent variable regression models that can also assist in improved algorithms for variable

  5. Internal variability of fine-scale components of meteorological fields in extended-range limited-area model simulations with atmospheric and surface nudging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei

    2015-09-01

    Internal variability (IV) in dynamical downscaling with limited-area models (LAMs) represents a source of error inherent to the downscaled fields, which originates from the sensitive dependence of the models to arbitrarily small modifications. If IV is large it may impose the need for probabilistic verification of the downscaled information. Atmospheric spectral nudging (ASN) can reduce IV in LAMs as it constrains the large-scale components of LAM fields in the interior of the computational domain and thus prevents any considerable penetration of sensitively dependent deviations into the range of large scales. Using initial condition ensembles, the present study quantifies the impact of ASN on IV in LAM simulations in the range of fine scales that are not controlled by spectral nudging. Four simulation configurations that all include strong ASN but differ in the nudging settings are considered. In the fifth configuration, grid nudging of land surface variables toward high-resolution surface analyses is applied. The results show that the IV at scales larger than 300 km can be suppressed by selecting an appropriate ASN setup. At scales between 300 and 30 km, however, in all configurations, the hourly near-surface temperature, humidity, and winds are only partly reproducible. Nudging the land surface variables is found to have the potential to significantly reduce IV, particularly for fine-scale temperature and humidity. On the other hand, hourly precipitation accumulations at these scales are generally irreproducible in all configurations, and probabilistic approach to downscaling is therefore recommended.

  6. Internal state variable plasticity-damage modeling of AISI 4140 steel including microstructure-property relations: temperature and strain rate effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nacif el Alaoui, Reda

    Mechanical structure-property relations have been quantified for AISI 4140 steel. under different strain rates and temperatures. The structure-property relations were used. to calibrate a microstructure-based internal state variable plasticity-damage model for. monotonic tension, compression and torsion plasticity, as well as damage evolution. Strong stress state and temperature dependences were observed for the AISI 4140 steel. Tension tests on three different notched Bridgman specimens were undertaken to study. the damage-triaxiality dependence for model validation purposes. Fracture surface. analysis was performed using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) to quantify the void. nucleation and void sizes in the different specimens. The stress-strain behavior exhibited. a fairly large applied stress state (tension, compression dependence, and torsion), a. moderate temperature dependence, and a relatively small strain rate dependence.

  7. Models of international entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rask, Morten; Servais, Per

    2012-01-01

    on International Entrepreneurship, and specifically but not exclusively, International New Ventures (INVs). The three resulting ‘meta-models’ depict the activities and loci of such firms (Figure 1), the motivating factors that give rise to such firms (Figure 2) and their growth modalities and strategies (Figure 3......). These models reflect the merger of entrepreneurship and international business into the field of international entrepreneurship. Managers in international entrepreneurial firms and students in international business and entrepreneurship can use the models as framework for understanding international...... entrepreneurship....

  8. Models og International Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rask, Morten; Servais, Per

    2015-01-01

    on International Entrepreneurship, and specifically but not exclusively, International New Ventures (INVs). The three resulting ‘meta-models’ depict the activities and loci of such firms, the motivating factors that give rise to such firms and their growth modalities and strategies. These models reflect the merger...... of entrepreneurship and international business into the field of international entrepreneurship....

  9. Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G - II. El Nino Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Hense, Andreas [Univ. of Bonn (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Legutke, Stephanie [Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Kwon, Won-Tae [Meteorological Research Inst., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-08-01

    A 1000-yr control simulation (CTL) performed with the atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHO-G is analysed with regard to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the two major natural climatic variabilities, in comparison with observations and other model simulations. The ENSO-related sea surface temperature climate and its seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific and a single Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern tropical Pacific are simulated reasonably, and the ENSO phase-locking to the annual cycle and the subsurface ocean behaviour related to equatorial wave dynamics are also reproduced well. The simulated amplitude of the ENSO signal is however too large and its occurrence is too regular and frequent. Also, the observed westward propagation of zonal wind stress over the equatorial Pacific is not captured by the model. Nevertheless, the ENSO-related teleconnection patterns of near-surface temperature (T2m), precipitation (PCP) and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are reproduced realistically. The NAO index, defined as the MSLP difference between Gibraltar and Iceland, has a 'white' noise spectrum similar to that of the detrended index obtained from observed data. The correlation and regression patterns of T2m, PCP and MSLP with the NAO index are also successfully simulated. However, the model overestimates the warming over the North Pacific in the high index phase of the NAO, a feature it shares with other coupled models. This might be associated with an enhanced Atlantic/Pacific teleconnection, which is hardly seen in the observations. A detection analysis of the NAO index shows that the observed recent 4060 yr trend cannot be explained by the model's internal variability while the recent 2030 yr trend occurs with a more than 1% chance in ECHO-G CTL.

  10. Internal Interdecadal Variability in CMIP5 Control Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, A. H.; Mann, M. E.; Frankcombe, L. M.; England, M. H.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K.

    2015-12-01

    Here we make use of control simulations from the CMIP5 models to quantify the amplitude of the interdecadal internal variability component in Atlantic, Pacific, and Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature. We compare against estimates derived from observations using a semi-empirical approach wherein the forced component as estimated using CMIP5 historical simulations is removed to yield an estimate of the residual, internal variability. While the observational estimates are largely consistent with those derived from the control simulations for both basins and the Northern Hemisphere, they lie in the upper range of the model distributions, suggesting the possibility of differences between the amplitudes of observed and modeled variability. We comment on some possible reasons for the disparity.

  11. Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Pohl, Benjamin; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen

    2017-11-01

    The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920-2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010-2049) and mid-term (2030-2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060-2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon.

  12. SME International Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Child, John; Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses two questions through a study of 180 SMEs located in contrasting industry and home country contexts. First, which business models for international markets prevail among SMEs and do they configure into different types? Second, which factors predict the international business...... models that SMEs follow? Three distinct international business models (traditional market-adaptive, technology exploiter, and ambidextrous explorer) are found among the SMEs studied. The likelihood of SMEs adopting one business model rather than another is to a high degree predictable with reference...

  13. Spatio-temporal variability of internal waves in the northern Gulf of Mexico studied with the Navy Coastal Ocean Model, NCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambazoglu, M. K.; Jacobs, G. A.; Howden, S. D.; Book, J. W.; Arnone, R.; Soto Ramos, I. M.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Greer, A. T.; Miles, T. N.

    2016-02-01

    Internal waves enhance mixing in the upper ocean, transport nutrients and plankton over the water column and across the shelf from deeper waters to shallower coastal areas, and could also transport pollutants such as hydrocarbons onshore during an oil spill event. This study aims to characterize internal waves in the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) and investigate the possible generation and dissipation mechanisms using a high-resolution (1-km) application of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). Three dimensional model products are used to detect the propagation patterns of internal waves. The vertical structure of internal waves is studied and the role of stratification is analyzed by looking at the temperature, salinity and velocity variations along the water column. The model predictions suggest the generation of internal waves on the continental shelf, therefore the role of ocean bottom topography interacting with tides and general circulation features such as the Loop Current Eddy front, on the internal wave generation will be discussed. The time periods of internal wave occurrences are identified from model predictions and compared to satellite ocean color imagery. Further data analysis, e.g. Fourier analysis, is implemented to determine internal wavelengths and frequencies and to determine if the response of internal waves are at tidal periods or at different frequencies. The atmospheric forcing provided to NCOM and meteorological data records are analyzed to define the interaction between wind forcing and internal wave generation. Wavelet analysis characterizes the ocean response to atmospheric events with periodic frequencies. Ocean color satellite imagery was used to visualize the location of the Mississippi river plume (and other oceanic features) and compared to the model predictions because the enhanced stratification from freshwater plumes which propagate across the Mississippi Bight can provide favorable conditions in coastal waters for internal wave

  14. Modeling Internal Radiation Therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broek, Egon; Schouten, Theo E.; Pellegrini, M.; Fred, A.; Filipe, J.; Gamboa, H.

    2011-01-01

    A new technique is described to model (internal) radiation therapy. It is founded on morphological processing, in particular distance transforms. Its formal basis is presented as well as its implementation via the Fast Exact Euclidean Distance (FEED) transform. Its use for all variations of internal

  15. On the role of "internal variability" on soil erosion assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jongho; Ivanov, Valeriy; Fatichi, Simone

    2017-04-01

    Empirical data demonstrate that soil loss is highly non-unique with respect to meteorological or even runoff forcing and its frequency distributions exhibit heavy tails. However, all current erosion assessments do not describe the large associated uncertainties of temporal erosion variability and make unjustified assumptions by relying on central tendencies. Thus, the predictive skill of prognostic models and reliability of national-scale assessments have been repeatedly questioned. In this study, we attempt to reveal that the high variability in soil losses can be attributed to two sources: (1) 'external variability' referring to the uncertainties originating at macro-scale, such as climate, topography, and land use, which has been extensively studied; (2) 'geomorphic internal variability' referring to the micro-scale variations of pedologic properties (e.g., surface erodibility in soils with multi-sized particles), hydrologic properties (e.g., soil structure and degree of saturation), and hydraulic properties (e.g., surface roughness and surface topography). Using data and a physical hydraulic, hydrologic, and erosion and sediment transport model, we show that the geomorphic internal variability summarized by spatio-temporal variability in surface erodibility properties is a considerable source of uncertainty in erosion estimates and represents an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response. The conclusion is that predictive frameworks of soil erosion should embed stochastic components together with deterministic assessments, if they do not want to largely underestimate uncertainty. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education (2016R1D1A1B03931886).

  16. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

  17. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-08

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.

  18. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-08

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  19. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  20. Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

    2018-06-01

    This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

  1. Internal and forced eddy variability in the Labrador Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bracco, A.; Luo, H.; Zhong, Y.; Lilly, J.

    2009-04-01

    Water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea, widely believed to be one of the key regions in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), now appears to be strongly impacted by vortex dynamics of the unstable boundary current. Large interannual variations in both eddy shedding and buoyancy transport from the boundary current have been observed but not explained, and are apparently sensitive to the state of the inflowing current. Heat and salinity fluxes associated with the eddies drive ventilation changes not accounted for by changes in local surface forcing, particularly during occasional years of extreme eddy activity, and constitute a predominant source of "internal" oceanic variability. The nature of this variable eddy-driven restratification is one of the outstanding questions along the northern transformation pathway. Here we investigate the eddy generation mechanism and the associated buoyancy fluxes by combining realistic and idealized numerical modeling, data analysis, and theory. Theory, supported by idealized experiments, provides criteria to test hypotheses as to the vortex formation process (by baroclinic instability linked to the bottom topography). Ensembles of numerical experiments with a high-resolution regional model (ROMS) allow for quantifying the sensitivity of eddy generation and property transport to variations in local and external forcing parameters. For the first time, we reproduce with a numerical simulation the observed interannual variability in the eddy kinetic energy in the convective region of the Labrador Basin and along the West Greenland Current.

  2. Internally generated natural variability of global-mean temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigley, T.M.L.; Raper, S.C.B.

    1990-01-01

    Quantitative frequency-domain and time-domain estimates are made of an important aspect of natural variability of global-mean temperatures, namely, passive internal variability resulting from the modulation of atmospheric variability by the ocean. The results are derived using an upwelling-diffusion, energy-balance climate model. In the frequency domain, analytical spectral results show a transition from a high-frequency region in which the response is determined by the mixed-layer heat capacity and is independent of the climate sensitivity (time scales less than around 10 years), to a low-frequency region in which the response depends only on the climate sensitivity. In the former region the spectral power is proportional to f -2 , where f is the frequency, while in the latter the power is independent of frequency. The range of validity of these results depends on the components of the climate system that are included in the model. In this case these restrict the low-frequency results to time scales less than about 1,000 years. A qualitative extrapolation is presented in an attempt to explain the observed low-frequency power spectra from deep-sea-core δ 18 O time series. The spectral results are also used to estimate the effective heat capacity of the ocean as a function of frequency. At low frequencies, this can range up to 50 times greater than the heat capacity of the mixed layer. Results in the time domain are obtained by solving the model equations numerically

  3. Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

  4. Modeling the Variable Heliopause Location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hensley, Kerry

    2018-03-01

    In 2012, Voyager 1 zipped across the heliopause. Five and a half years later, Voyager 2 still hasnt followed its twin into interstellar space. Can models of the heliopause location help determine why?How Far to the Heliopause?Artists conception of the heliosphere with the important structures and boundaries labeled. [NASA/Goddard/Walt Feimer]As our solar system travels through the galaxy, the solar outflow pushes against the surrounding interstellar medium, forming a bubble called the heliosphere. The edge of this bubble, the heliopause, is the outermost boundary of our solar system, where the solar wind and the interstellar medium meet. Since the solar outflow is highly variable, the heliopause is constantly moving with the motion driven by changes inthe Sun.NASAs twin Voyager spacecraft were poisedto cross the heliopause after completingtheir tour of the outer planets in the 1980s. In 2012, Voyager 1 registered a sharp increase in the density of interstellar particles, indicating that the spacecraft had passed out of the heliosphere and into the interstellar medium. The slower-moving Voyager 2 was set to pierce the heliopause along a different trajectory, but so far no measurements have shown that the spacecraft has bid farewell to oursolar system.In a recent study, ateam of scientists led by Haruichi Washimi (Kyushu University, Japan and CSPAR, University of Alabama-Huntsville) argues that models of the heliosphere can help explain this behavior. Because the heliopause location is controlled by factors that vary on many spatial and temporal scales, Washimiand collaborators turn to three-dimensional, time-dependent magnetohydrodynamics simulations of the heliosphere. In particular, they investigate how the position of the heliopause along the trajectories of Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 changes over time.Modeled location of the heliopause along the paths of Voyagers 1 (blue) and 2 (orange). Click for a closer look. The red star indicates the location at which Voyager

  5. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2018-06-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

  6. Handbook of latent variable and related models

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Sik-Yum

    2011-01-01

    This Handbook covers latent variable models, which are a flexible class of models for modeling multivariate data to explore relationships among observed and latent variables.- Covers a wide class of important models- Models and statistical methods described provide tools for analyzing a wide spectrum of complicated data- Includes illustrative examples with real data sets from business, education, medicine, public health and sociology.- Demonstrates the use of a wide variety of statistical, computational, and mathematical techniques.

  7. A class of constitutive relations with internal variable derivatives: derivation from homogenization and initial value problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrieux, S.; Joussemet, M.; Lorentz, E.

    1996-01-01

    When they are subjected to excessive loads, some materials may exhibit a softening behaviour resulting from the deterioration of their mechanical properties. To idealize such behaviours, constitutive relations with softening are introduced, for which the size of the domain of reversibility in the stress-space decreases. These models feature a strain localization within the material, in agreement with experiments, but cannot predict the subsequent behaviour because they lead to shear bands the width of which is equal to zero, physically unacceptable and numerically troublesome. It has been proposed in the literature to overcome these difficulties by adding to the list of internal variable the spatial gradients of some of them. This procedure suffers from lack of firm methodological basis. Although, some quantitative justification have been advanced relying on some kind of microscopic analysis. Therefore, we propose to extend the classical (local) models by introducing the internal state variable first gradients. Given local model within the framework of standard generalized materials, consistent homogenization procedure is put forward to derive macroscopic free energy and dissipation potentials. The standard generalized character is preserved, with an extended set of state variables, containing not only the strain and the internal variables but also the internal variable derivatives. Nevertheless, when dealing with the whole structure, the independence between the new state variables is lost. We propose then to generalize the constitutive relations, leading to a new variational principle that ensures the Clausius-Duhem inequality at the structure scale. (authors)

  8. Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

    2017-12-01

    Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

  9. Generalized latent variable modeling multilevel, longitudinal, and structural equation models

    CERN Document Server

    Skrondal, Anders; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

    2004-01-01

    This book unifies and extends latent variable models, including multilevel or generalized linear mixed models, longitudinal or panel models, item response or factor models, latent class or finite mixture models, and structural equation models.

  10. A Core Language for Separate Variability Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iosif-Lazăr, Alexandru Florin; Wasowski, Andrzej; Schaefer, Ina

    2014-01-01

    Separate variability modeling adds variability to a modeling language without requiring modifications of the language or the supporting tools. We define a core language for separate variability modeling using a single kind of variation point to define transformations of software artifacts in object...... hierarchical dependencies between variation points via copying and flattening. Thus, we reduce a model with intricate dependencies to a flat executable model transformation consisting of simple unconditional local variation points. The core semantics is extremely concise: it boils down to two operational rules...

  11. Latent variable models are network models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2010-06-01

    Cramer et al. present an original and interesting network perspective on comorbidity and contrast this perspective with a more traditional interpretation of comorbidity in terms of latent variable theory. My commentary focuses on the relationship between the two perspectives; that is, it aims to qualify the presumed contrast between interpretations in terms of networks and latent variables.

  12. On the derivation of thermodynamic restrictions for materials with internal state variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malmberg, T.

    1987-07-01

    Thermodynamic restrictions for the constitutive relations of an internal variable model are derived by evaluating the Clausius-Duhem entropy inequality with two different approaches. The classical Coleman-Noll argumentation of Rational Thermodynamics applied by Coleman and Gurtin to an internal variable model is summarized. This approach requires an arbitrary modulation of body forces and heat supply in the interior of the body which is subject to criticism. The second approach applied in this presentation is patterned after a concept of Mueller and Liu, originally developed within the context of a different entropy inequality and different classes of constitutive models. For the internal variable model the second approach requires only the modulation of initial values on the boundary of the body. In the course of the development of the second approach certain differences to the argumentation of Mueller and Liu become evident and are pointed out. Finally, the results demonstrate that the first and second approach give the same thermodynamic restrictions for the internal variable model. The derived residual entropy inequality requires further analysis. (orig.) [de

  13. Internal and external variability in regional simulations of the Iberian Peninsula climate over the last millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Gómez-Navarro

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analyse the role of internal variability in regional climate simulations through a comparison of two regional paleoclimate simulations for the last millennium. They share the same external forcings and model configuration, differing only in the initial condition used to run the driving global model simulation. A comparison of these simulations allows us to study the role of internal variability in climate models at regional scales, and how it affects the long-term evolution of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. The results indicate that, although temperature is homogeneously sensitive to the effect of external forcings, the evolution of precipitation is more strongly governed by random unpredictable internal dynamics. There are, however, some areas where the role of internal variability is lower than expected, allowing precipitation to respond to the external forcings. In this respect, we explore the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for it. This study identifies areas, depending on the season, in which a direct comparison between model simulations of precipitation and climate reconstructions would be meaningful, but also other areas where good agreement between them should not be expected even if both are perfect.

  14. A class of constitutive relations with internal variable derivatives. Derivation from homogenization and initial value problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrieux, S.; Joussemet, M.; Lorentz, E.

    1996-01-01

    A general framework for deriving and using a class of constitutive laws incorporating spatial gradients of internal variables is presented. It uses two basic ingredients: a derivation of such models by homogenization techniques and a reformulation of the evolution equation at the scale of the whole structure. (orig.)

  15. A Non-Gaussian Spatial Generalized Linear Latent Variable Model

    KAUST Repository

    Irincheeva, Irina

    2012-08-03

    We consider a spatial generalized linear latent variable model with and without normality distributional assumption on the latent variables. When the latent variables are assumed to be multivariate normal, we apply a Laplace approximation. To relax the assumption of marginal normality in favor of a mixture of normals, we construct a multivariate density with Gaussian spatial dependence and given multivariate margins. We use the pairwise likelihood to estimate the corresponding spatial generalized linear latent variable model. The properties of the resulting estimators are explored by simulations. In the analysis of an air pollution data set the proposed methodology uncovers weather conditions to be a more important source of variability than air pollution in explaining all the causes of non-accidental mortality excluding accidents. © 2012 International Biometric Society.

  16. A Non-Gaussian Spatial Generalized Linear Latent Variable Model

    KAUST Repository

    Irincheeva, Irina; Cantoni, Eva; Genton, Marc G.

    2012-01-01

    We consider a spatial generalized linear latent variable model with and without normality distributional assumption on the latent variables. When the latent variables are assumed to be multivariate normal, we apply a Laplace approximation. To relax the assumption of marginal normality in favor of a mixture of normals, we construct a multivariate density with Gaussian spatial dependence and given multivariate margins. We use the pairwise likelihood to estimate the corresponding spatial generalized linear latent variable model. The properties of the resulting estimators are explored by simulations. In the analysis of an air pollution data set the proposed methodology uncovers weather conditions to be a more important source of variability than air pollution in explaining all the causes of non-accidental mortality excluding accidents. © 2012 International Biometric Society.

  17. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  18. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara; Lopez, Ana; Huntingford, Chris; Allen, Myles

    2014-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  19. Eutrophication Modeling Using Variable Chlorophyll Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdolabadi, H.; Sarang, A.; Ardestani, M.; Mahjoobi, E.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, eutrophication was investigated in Lake Ontario to identify the interactions among effective drivers. The complexity of such phenomenon was modeled using a system dynamics approach based on a consideration of constant and variable stoichiometric ratios. The system dynamics approach is a powerful tool for developing object-oriented models to simulate complex phenomena that involve feedback effects. Utilizing stoichiometric ratios is a method for converting the concentrations of state variables. During the physical segmentation of the model, Lake Ontario was divided into two layers, i.e., the epilimnion and hypolimnion, and differential equations were developed for each layer. The model structure included 16 state variables related to phytoplankton, herbivorous zooplankton, carnivorous zooplankton, ammonium, nitrate, dissolved phosphorus, and particulate and dissolved carbon in the epilimnion and hypolimnion during a time horizon of one year. The results of several tests to verify the model, close to 1 Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (0.98), the data correlation coefficient (0.98), and lower standard errors (0.96), have indicated well-suited model’s efficiency. The results revealed that there were significant differences in the concentrations of the state variables in constant and variable stoichiometry simulations. Consequently, the consideration of variable stoichiometric ratios in algae and nutrient concentration simulations may be applied in future modeling studies to enhance the accuracy of the results and reduce the likelihood of inefficient control policies.

  20. Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

    2018-01-01

    We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

  1. Oscillating shells: A model for a variable cosmic object

    OpenAIRE

    Nunez, Dario

    1997-01-01

    A model for a possible variable cosmic object is presented. The model consists of a massive shell surrounding a compact object. The gravitational and self-gravitational forces tend to collapse the shell, but the internal tangential stresses oppose the collapse. The combined action of the two types of forces is studied and several cases are presented. In particular, we investigate the spherically symmetric case in which the shell oscillates radially around a central compact object.

  2. Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

    2018-01-01

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

  3. Anticommuting variables, internal degrees of freedom, and the Wilson loop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barducci, A.; Casalbuoni, R.; Lusanna, L.

    1981-01-01

    In this paper we show that is possible to give a real physical meaning to theories in which internal degrees of freedom are described by Grassmann variables. The physical theory is defined by means of an averaging procedure in terms of a distribution function in the Grassmann restricted space satisfying all the physical requirements. If we use this result for a scalar particle with inner degrees of freedom (electric charge, colour, ...) interacting with Yang-Mills gauge fields, it turns out that we can define two different classical theories. Taking the average of the coupled particle-field equations of motion, we recover the usual classical theory. Taking instead the average of the solution of such equations we get a theory which is free from all the classical infinities (and so of the causal defects, like runaway solution or pre-acceleration) but also of all the effects of the same order in the charges (like radiation). The main point is that the processes of averaging and integrating the equations of motion do not commute. Then for the case of colour degrees of freedom we study the quantization of the theory by the path-integral method and we show that the functional integration can be done for an arbitrary gluon field simply by using the classical solution. As a result we obtain an expression for the Wilson loop as a functional integral for the internal fermionic degrees of freedom. (orig.)

  4. Galactic models with variable spiral structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, R.A.; Sellwood, J.A.

    1978-01-01

    A series of three-dimensional computer simulations of disc galaxies has been run in which the self-consistent potential of the disc stars is supplemented by that arising from a small uniform Population II sphere. The models show variable spiral structure, which is more pronounced for thin discs. In addition, the thin discs form weak bars. In one case variable spiral structure associated with this bar has been seen. The relaxed discs are cool outside resonance regions. (author)

  5. Gait variability: methods, modeling and meaning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hausdorff Jeffrey M

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The study of gait variability, the stride-to-stride fluctuations in walking, offers a complementary way of quantifying locomotion and its changes with aging and disease as well as a means of monitoring the effects of therapeutic interventions and rehabilitation. Previous work has suggested that measures of gait variability may be more closely related to falls, a serious consequence of many gait disorders, than are measures based on the mean values of other walking parameters. The Current JNER series presents nine reports on the results of recent investigations into gait variability. One novel method for collecting unconstrained, ambulatory data is reviewed, and a primer on analysis methods is presented along with a heuristic approach to summarizing variability measures. In addition, the first studies of gait variability in animal models of neurodegenerative disease are described, as is a mathematical model of human walking that characterizes certain complex (multifractal features of the motor control's pattern generator. Another investigation demonstrates that, whereas both healthy older controls and patients with a higher-level gait disorder walk more slowly in reduced lighting, only the latter's stride variability increases. Studies of the effects of dual tasks suggest that the regulation of the stride-to-stride fluctuations in stride width and stride time may be influenced by attention loading and may require cognitive input. Finally, a report of gait variability in over 500 subjects, probably the largest study of this kind, suggests how step width variability may relate to fall risk. Together, these studies provide new insights into the factors that regulate the stride-to-stride fluctuations in walking and pave the way for expanded research into the control of gait and the practical application of measures of gait variability in the clinical setting.

  6. Gaussian Mixture Model of Heart Rate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Tommaso; Boccignone, Giuseppe; Ferraro, Mario

    2012-01-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) is an important measure of sympathetic and parasympathetic functions of the autonomic nervous system and a key indicator of cardiovascular condition. This paper proposes a novel method to investigate HRV, namely by modelling it as a linear combination of Gaussians. Results show that three Gaussians are enough to describe the stationary statistics of heart variability and to provide a straightforward interpretation of the HRV power spectrum. Comparisons have been made also with synthetic data generated from different physiologically based models showing the plausibility of the Gaussian mixture parameters. PMID:22666386

  7. Evaluation of internal noise methods for Hotelling observer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yani; Pham, Binh T.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

    2007-01-01

    The inclusion of internal noise in model observers is a common method to allow for quantitative comparisons between human and model observer performance in visual detection tasks. In this article, we studied two different strategies for inserting internal noise into Hotelling model observers. In the first strategy, internal noise was added to the output of individual channels: (a) Independent nonuniform channel noise, (b) independent uniform channel noise. In the second strategy, internal noise was added to the decision variable arising from the combination of channel responses. The standard deviation of the zero mean internal noise was either constant or proportional to: (a) the decision variable's standard deviation due to the external noise, (b) the decision variable's variance caused by the external noise, (c) the decision variable magnitude on a trial to trial basis. We tested three model observers: square window Hotelling observer (HO), channelized Hotelling observer (CHO), and Laguerre-Gauss Hotelling observer (LGHO) using a four alternative forced choice (4AFC) signal known exactly but variable task with a simulated signal embedded in real x-ray coronary angiogram backgrounds. The results showed that the internal noise method that led to the best prediction of human performance differed across the studied model observers. The CHO model best predicted human observer performance with the channel internal noise. The HO and LGHO best predicted human observer performance with the decision variable internal noise. The present results might guide researchers with the choice of methods to include internal noise into Hotelling model observers when evaluating and optimizing medical image quality

  8. Macroeconomic modelling of international carbon tax regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, S.; Mabey, N.; Smith, Clare

    1994-01-01

    An econometric model of fossil fuel demand has been estimated for eight OECD countries, relating coal, oil and gas demands to GDP and prices. In addition, for five of these countries, a model of endogenous technical progress has been estimated, representing the decline in energy intensity as a function of price and macroeconomic variables. This aims to include both price induced innovation in energy and structural change in the economy as long term determinants of energy consumption. A number of possible international carbon/energy tax agreements are simulated, showing the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and comparing the two models. It is shown that the endogenous technical change model does include an important element that is missed in the more conventional approach. However in the long run the magnitude of taxes required to stabilise or reduce emissions would be large, and it is suggested that other non-price policies will become more important. (Author)

  9. Modeling the internal combustion engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeleznik, F. J.; Mcbride, B. J.

    1985-01-01

    A flexible and computationally economical model of the internal combustion engine was developed for use on large digital computer systems. It is based on a system of ordinary differential equations for cylinder-averaged properties. The computer program is capable of multicycle calculations, with some parameters varying from cycle to cycle, and has restart capabilities. It can accommodate a broad spectrum of reactants, permits changes in physical properties, and offers a wide selection of alternative modeling functions without any reprogramming. It readily adapts to the amount of information available in a particular case because the model is in fact a hierarchy of five models. The models range from a simple model requiring only thermodynamic properties to a complex model demanding full combustion kinetics, transport properties, and poppet valve flow characteristics. Among its many features the model includes heat transfer, valve timing, supercharging, motoring, finite burning rates, cycle-to-cycle variations in air-fuel ratio, humid air, residual and recirculated exhaust gas, and full combustion kinetics.

  10. Confounding of three binary-variables counterfactual model

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Jingwei; Hu, Shuang

    2011-01-01

    Confounding of three binary-variables counterfactual model is discussed in this paper. According to the effect between the control variable and the covariate variable, we investigate three counterfactual models: the control variable is independent of the covariate variable, the control variable has the effect on the covariate variable and the covariate variable affects the control variable. Using the ancillary information based on conditional independence hypotheses, the sufficient conditions...

  11. The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraun, Douglas

    2013-04-01

    When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with

  12. Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

    2009-06-01

    Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

  13. Natural climate variability in a coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zebiak, S.E.; Cane, M.A.

    1990-01-01

    Multi-century simulations with a simplified coupled ocean-atmosphere model are described. These simulations reveal an impressive range of variability on decadal and longer time scales, in addition to the dominant interannual el Nino/Southern Oscillation signal that the model originally was designed to simulate. Based on a very large sample of century-long simulations, it is nonetheless possible to identify distinct model parameter sensitivities that are described here in terms of selected indices. Preliminary experiments motivated by general circulation model results for increasing greenhouse gases suggest a definite sensitivity to model global warming. While these results are not definitive, they strongly suggest that coupled air-sea dynamics figure prominently in global change and must be included in models for reliable predictions

  14. Constraint-Led Changes in Internal Variability in Running

    OpenAIRE

    Haudum, Anita; Birklbauer, Jürgen; Kröll, Josef; Müller, Erich

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the effect of a one-time application of elastic constraints on movement-inherent variability during treadmill running. Eleven males ran two 35-min intervals while surface EMG was measured. In one of two 35-min intervals, after 10 min of running without tubes, elastic tubes (between hip and heels) were attached, followed by another 5 min of running without tubes. To assess variability, stride-to-stride iEMG variability was calculated. Significant increases in variability (36 % ...

  15. International Nuclear Model personal computer (PCINM): Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-08-01

    The International Nuclear Model (INM) was developed to assist the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in producing worldwide projections of electricity generation, fuel cycle requirements, capacities, and spent fuel discharges from commercial nuclear reactors. The original INM was developed, maintained, and operated on a mainframe computer system. In spring 1992, a streamlined version of INM was created for use on a microcomputer utilizing CLIPPER and PCSAS software. This new version is known as PCINM. This documentation is based on the new PCINM version. This document is designed to satisfy the requirements of several categories of users of the PCINM system including technical analysts, theoretical modelers, and industry observers. This document assumes the reader is familiar with the nuclear fuel cycle and each of its components. This model documentation contains four chapters and seven appendices. Chapter Two presents the model overview containing the PCINM structure and process flow, the areas for which projections are made, and input data and output reports. Chapter Three presents the model technical specifications showing all model equations, algorithms, and units of measure. Chapter Four presents an overview of all parameters, variables, and assumptions used in PCINM. The appendices present the following detailed information: variable and parameter listings, variable and equation cross reference tables, source code listings, file layouts, sample report outputs, and model run procedures. 2 figs

  16. Rapid grounding line migration induced by internal variability of a marine-terminating ice stream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robel, A.; Schoof, C.; Tziperman, E.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous studies have found significant variability in the velocity of ice streams to be a prominent feature of geomorphologic records in the Siple Coast (Catania et al. 2012) and other regions in West Antarctica (Dowdeswell et al. 2008). Observations indicate that grounding line position is strongly influenced by ice stream variability, producing rapid grounding line migration in the recent past (Catania et al. 2006) and the modern (Joughin & Tulaczyk 2002). We analyze the interaction of grounding line mass flux and position in a marine-terminating ice stream using a stretch-coordinate flowline model. This model is based on that described in Schoof (2007), with a mesh refined near the grounding line to ensure accurate resolution of the mechanical transition zone. Here we have added lateral shear stress (Dupont & Alley 2005) and an undrained plastic bed (Tulaczyk et al. 2000). The parameter dependence of ice stream variability seen in this model compares favorably to both simpler (Robel et al. 2013) and more complex (van der Wel et al. 2013) models, though with some key differences. We find that thermally-induced internal ice stream variability can cause very rapid grounding line migration even in the absence of retrograde bed slopes or external forcing. Activation waves propagate along the ice stream length and trigger periods of rapid grounding line migration. We compare the behavior of the grounding line due to internal ice stream variability to changes triggered externally at the grounding line such as the rapid disintegration of buttressing ice shelves. Implications for Heinrich events and the Marine Ice Sheet Instability are discussed.

  17. A Model for Positively Correlated Count Variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Rubak, Ege Holger

    2010-01-01

    An α-permanental random field is briefly speaking a model for a collection of non-negative integer valued random variables with positive associations. Though such models possess many appealing probabilistic properties, many statisticians seem unaware of α-permanental random fields...... and their potential applications. The purpose of this paper is to summarize useful probabilistic results, study stochastic constructions and simulation techniques, and discuss some examples of α-permanental random fields. This should provide a useful basis for discussing the statistical aspects in future work....

  18. First International Workshop on Variability in Software Architecture (VARSA 2011)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galster, Matthias; Avgeriou, Paris; Weyns, Danny; Mannisto, Tomi

    2011-01-01

    Variability is the ability of a software artifact to be changed for a specific context. Mechanisms to accommodate variability include software product lines, configuration wizards and tools in commercial software, configuration interfaces of software components, or the dynamic runtime composition of

  19. Homogenization of linear viscoelastic three phase media: internal variable formulation versus full-field computation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, V.; Barbie, L.; Masson, R.

    2011-01-01

    Homogenization of linear viscoelastic heterogeneous media is here extended from two phase inclusion-matrix media to three phase inclusion-matrix media. Each phase obeying to a compressible Maxwellian behaviour, this analytic method leads to an equivalent elastic homogenization problem in the Laplace-Carson space. For some particular microstructures, such as the Hashin composite sphere assemblage, an exact solution is obtained. The inversion of the Laplace-Carson transforms of the overall stress-strain behaviour gives in such cases an internal variable formulation. As expected, the number of these internal variables and their evolution laws are modified to take into account the third phase. Moreover, evolution laws of averaged stresses and strains per phase can still be derived for three phase media. Results of this model are compared to full fields computations of representative volume elements using finite element method, for various concentrations and sizes of inclusion. Relaxation and creep test cases are performed in order to compare predictions of the effective response. The internal variable formulation is shown to yield accurate prediction in both cases. (authors)

  20. Constraint-led changes in internal variability in running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haudum, Anita; Birklbauer, Jürgen; Kröll, Josef; Müller, Erich

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the effect of a one-time application of elastic constraints on movement-inherent variability during treadmill running. Eleven males ran two 35-min intervals while surface EMG was measured. In one of two 35-min intervals, after 10 min of running without tubes, elastic tubes (between hip and heels) were attached, followed by another 5 min of running without tubes. To assess variability, stride-to-stride iEMG variability was calculated. Significant increases in variability (36 % to 74 %) were observed during tube running, whereas running without tubes after the tube running block showed no significant differences. Results show that elastic tubes affect variability on a muscular level despite the constant environmental conditions and underline the nervous system's adaptability to cope with somehow unpredictable constraints since stride duration was unaltered.

  1. Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

    2018-05-01

    Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

  2. Hidden Markov latent variable models with multivariate longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xinyuan; Xia, Yemao; Zhu, Hongtu

    2017-03-01

    Cocaine addiction is chronic and persistent, and has become a major social and health problem in many countries. Existing studies have shown that cocaine addicts often undergo episodic periods of addiction to, moderate dependence on, or swearing off cocaine. Given its reversible feature, cocaine use can be formulated as a stochastic process that transits from one state to another, while the impacts of various factors, such as treatment received and individuals' psychological problems on cocaine use, may vary across states. This article develops a hidden Markov latent variable model to study multivariate longitudinal data concerning cocaine use from a California Civil Addict Program. The proposed model generalizes conventional latent variable models to allow bidirectional transition between cocaine-addiction states and conventional hidden Markov models to allow latent variables and their dynamic interrelationship. We develop a maximum-likelihood approach, along with a Monte Carlo expectation conditional maximization (MCECM) algorithm, to conduct parameter estimation. The asymptotic properties of the parameter estimates and statistics for testing the heterogeneity of model parameters are investigated. The finite sample performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by simulation studies. The application to cocaine use study provides insights into the prevention of cocaine use. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  3. THE INTERNAL CONTROL MODELS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TEODORESCU CRISTIAN DRAGOȘ

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Internal control is indissolubly linked to business and accounting. Throughout history, domestic and international trade has grown exponentially, which has led to an increasing complexity of internal control, to new methods and techniques to control the business. The literature has presented the first models of internal control in the Sumerian period (3600 - 3200 BC, and the emergence and development of internal control in Egypt, Persia, Greek and Roman Empire, in the Middle Ages till modern times. The purpose of this article is to present the models of internal control in Romania, starting from the principles of the classical model of internal control (COSO model. For a better understanding of the implication of internal control in terms of public and private sector, I have structured the article in the following parts: (a the definition of internal control in the literature; (b the presentation of the COSO model; (c internal control and internal audit in public institutions; (d internal control issues in accounting regulations on the individual and consolidated annual financial statements; (e internal / managerial control; (f conclusions.

  4. Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

    2015-02-01

    Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Error-in-variables models in calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lira, I.; Grientschnig, D.

    2017-12-01

    In many calibration operations, the stimuli applied to the measuring system or instrument under test are derived from measurement standards whose values may be considered to be perfectly known. In that case, it is assumed that calibration uncertainty arises solely from inexact measurement of the responses, from imperfect control of the calibration process and from the possible inaccuracy of the calibration model. However, the premise that the stimuli are completely known is never strictly fulfilled and in some instances it may be grossly inadequate. Then, error-in-variables (EIV) regression models have to be employed. In metrology, these models have been approached mostly from the frequentist perspective. In contrast, not much guidance is available on their Bayesian analysis. In this paper, we first present a brief summary of the conventional statistical techniques that have been developed to deal with EIV models in calibration. We then proceed to discuss the alternative Bayesian framework under some simplifying assumptions. Through a detailed example about the calibration of an instrument for measuring flow rates, we provide advice on how the user of the calibration function should employ the latter framework for inferring the stimulus acting on the calibrated device when, in use, a certain response is measured.

  6. International Variability in Gastrointestinal Decontamination With Acute Poisonings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintegi, Santiago; Dalziel, Stuart R; Azkunaga, Beatriz; Prego, Javier; Arana-Arri, Eunate; Acedo, Yordana; Martinez-Indart, Lorea; Benito, Javier; Kuppermann, Nathan

    2017-08-01

    Identifying international differences in the management of acute pediatric poisonings may help improve the quality of care. The objective of this study was to assess the international variation and appropriateness of gastrointestinal decontamination (GID) procedures performed in children and adolescents who present with acute poisonings to emergency departments. This was an international, multicenter, cross-sectional prospective study including children poisoning exposures presenting to 105 emergency departments in 20 countries from 8 global regions belonging to the Pediatric Emergency Research Networks. Data collection started between January and September 2013 and continued for 1 year. The appropriateness of GID procedures performed was analyzed using the American Academy of Clinical Toxicology and the European Association of Poisons Centres and Clinical Toxicologists' recommendations. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors for performing GID procedures. We included 1688 patients, 338 of whom (20.0%, 95% confidence interval 18.1%-22.0%) underwent the following GID procedures: activated charcoal (166, 49.1%), activated charcoal and gastric lavage (122, 36.1%), gastric lavage (47, 13.9%), and ipecac (3, 0.9%). In 155 (45.8%, 40.5%-51.2%), the GID procedure was considered appropriate, with significant differences between regions. Independent risk factors for GID procedures included age, toxin category, mechanism of poisoning, absence of symptoms, and the region where the intoxication occurred ( P management of pediatric poisonings. International best practices need to be better implemented. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  7. Preliminary Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Hendrichs, Todd

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews creating a preliminary multi-variable cost model for the contract costs of making a space telescope. There is discussion of the methodology for collecting the data, definition of the statistical analysis methodology, single variable model results, testing of historical models and an introduction of the multi variable models.

  8. Modeling variability in porescale multiphase flow experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Bowen; Bao, Jie; Oostrom, Mart; Battiato, Ilenia; Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.

    2017-07-01

    Microfluidic devices and porescale numerical models are commonly used to study multiphase flow in biological, geological, and engineered porous materials. In this work, we perform a set of drainage and imbibition experiments in six identical microfluidic cells to study the reproducibility of multiphase flow experiments. We observe significant variations in the experimental results, which are smaller during the drainage stage and larger during the imbibition stage. We demonstrate that these variations are due to sub-porescale geometry differences in microcells (because of manufacturing defects) and variations in the boundary condition (i.e., fluctuations in the injection rate inherent to syringe pumps). Computational simulations are conducted using commercial software STAR-CCM+, both with constant and randomly varying injection rates. Stochastic simulations are able to capture variability in the experiments associated with the varying pump injection rate.

  9. How to get rid of W: a latent variables approach to modelling spatially lagged variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Folmer, H.; Oud, J.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we propose a structural equation model (SEM) with latent variables to model spatial dependence. Rather than using the spatial weights matrix W, we propose to use latent variables to represent spatial dependence and spillover effects, of which the observed spatially lagged variables are

  10. How to get rid of W : a latent variables approach to modelling spatially lagged variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Folmer, Henk; Oud, Johan

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we propose a structural equation model (SEM) with latent variables to model spatial dependence. Rather than using the spatial weights matrix W, we propose to use latent variables to represent spatial dependence and spillover effects, of which the observed spatially lagged variables are

  11. Variable compression ratio device for internal combustion engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, Ronald P.; Faletti, James J.

    2004-03-23

    An internal combustion engine, particularly suitable for use in a work machine, is provided with a combustion cylinder, a cylinder head at an end of the combustion cylinder and a primary piston reciprocally disposed within the combustion cylinder. The cylinder head includes a secondary cylinder and a secondary piston reciprocally disposed within the secondary cylinder. An actuator is coupled with the secondary piston for controlling the position of the secondary piston dependent upon the position of the primary piston. A communication port establishes fluid flow communication between the combustion cylinder and the secondary cylinder.

  12. Bayesian modeling of measurement error in predictor variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    2003-01-01

    It is shown that measurement error in predictor variables can be modeled using item response theory (IRT). The predictor variables, that may be defined at any level of an hierarchical regression model, are treated as latent variables. The normal ogive model is used to describe the relation between

  13. Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, A.; Bates, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic.

  14. Modeling key processes causing climate change and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henriksson, S.

    2013-09-01

    Greenhouse gas warming, internal climate variability and aerosol climate effects are studied and the importance to understand these key processes and being able to separate their influence on the climate is discussed. Aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM and the COSMOS millennium model consisting of atmospheric, ocean and carbon cycle and land-use models are applied and results compared to measurements. Topics at focus are climate sensitivity, quasiperiodic variability with a period of 50-80 years and variability at other timescales, climate effects due to aerosols over India and climate effects of northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The main findings of this work are (1) pointing out the remaining challenges in reducing climate sensitivity uncertainty from observational evidence, (2) estimates for the amplitude of a 50-80 year quasiperiodic oscillation in global mean temperature ranging from 0.03 K to 0.17 K and for its phase progression as well as the synchronising effect of external forcing, (3) identifying a power law shape S(f) {proportional_to} f-{alpha} for the spectrum of global mean temperature with {alpha} {approx} 0.8 between multidecadal and El Nino timescales with a smaller exponent in modelled climate without external forcing, (4) separating aerosol properties and climate effects in India by season and location (5) the more efficient dispersion of secondary sulfate aerosols than primary carbonaceous aerosols in the simulations, (6) an increase in monsoon rainfall in northern India due to aerosol light absorption and a probably larger decrease due to aerosol dimming effects and (7) an estimate of mean maximum cooling of 0.19 K due to larger northern hemisphere mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions. The results could be applied or useful in better isolating the human-caused climate change signal, in studying the processes further and in more detail, in decadal climate prediction, in model evaluation and in emission policy

  15. Spacecraft Internal Acoustic Environment Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Shao-Sheng R.; Allen Christopher S.

    2010-01-01

    Acoustic modeling can be used to identify key noise sources, determine/analyze sub-allocated requirements, keep track of the accumulation of minor noise sources, and to predict vehicle noise levels at various stages in vehicle development, first with estimates of noise sources, later with experimental data. This paper describes the implementation of acoustic modeling for design purposes by incrementally increasing model fidelity and validating the accuracy of the model while predicting the noise of sources under various conditions. During FY 07, a simple-geometry Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) model was developed and validated using a physical mockup and acoustic measurements. A process for modeling the effects of absorptive wall treatments and the resulting reverberation environment were developed. During FY 08, a model with more complex and representative geometry of the Orion Crew Module (CM) interior was built, and noise predictions based on input noise sources were made. A corresponding physical mockup was also built. Measurements were made inside this mockup, and comparisons were made with the model and showed excellent agreement. During FY 09, the fidelity of the mockup and corresponding model were increased incrementally by including a simple ventilation system. The airborne noise contribution of the fans was measured using a sound intensity technique, since the sound power levels were not known beforehand. This is opposed to earlier studies where Reference Sound Sources (RSS) with known sound power level were used. Comparisons of the modeling result with the measurements in the mockup showed excellent results. During FY 10, the fidelity of the mockup and the model were further increased by including an ECLSS (Environmental Control and Life Support System) wall, associated closeout panels, and the gap between ECLSS wall and mockup wall. The effect of sealing the gap and adding sound absorptive treatment to ECLSS wall were also modeled and validated.

  16. A Thermodynamical Theory with Internal Variables Describing Thermal Effects in Viscous Fluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciancio, Vincenzo; Palumbo, Annunziata

    2018-04-01

    In this paper the heat conduction in viscous fluids is described by using the theory of classical irreversible thermodynamics with internal variables. In this theory, the deviation from the local equilibrium is characterized by vectorial internal variables and a generalized entropy current density expressed in terms of so-called current multipliers. Cross effects between heat conduction and viscosity are also considered and some phenomenological generalizations of Fourier's and Newton's laws are obtained.

  17. Drag coefficient Variability and Thermospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moe, Kenneth

    Satellite drag coefficients depend upon a variety of factors: The shape of the satellite, its altitude, the eccentricity of its orbit, the temperature and mean molecular mass of the ambient atmosphere, and the time in the sunspot cycle. At altitudes where the mean free path of the atmospheric molecules is large compared to the dimensions of the satellite, the drag coefficients can be determined from the theory of free-molecule flow. The dependence on altitude is caused by the concentration of atomic oxygen which plays an important role by its ability to adsorb on the satellite surface and thereby affect the energy loss of molecules striking the surface. The eccentricity of the orbit determines the satellite velocity at perigee, and therefore the energy of the incident molecules relative to the energy of adsorption of atomic oxygen atoms on the surface. The temperature of the ambient atmosphere determines the extent to which the random thermal motion of the molecules influences the momentum transfer to the satellite. The time in the sunspot cycle affects the ambient temperature as well as the concentration of atomic oxygen at a particular altitude. Tables and graphs will be used to illustrate the variability of drag coefficients. Before there were any measurements of gas-surface interactions in orbit, Izakov and Cook independently made an excellent estimate that the drag coefficient of satellites of compact shape would be 2.2. That numerical value, independent of altitude, was used by Jacchia to construct his model from the early measurements of satellite drag. Consequently, there is an altitude dependent bias in the model. From the sparce orbital experiments that have been done, we know that the molecules which strike satellite surfaces rebound in a diffuse angular distribution with an energy loss given by the energy accommodation coefficient. As more evidence accumulates on the energy loss, more realistic drag coefficients are being calculated. These improved drag

  18. Seasonal variability of Internal tide energetics in the western Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, S.; Rao, A. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Internal Waves (IWs) are generated by the flow of barotropic tide over the rapidly varying and steep topographic features like continental shelf slope, seamounts, etc. These waves are an important phenomena in the ocean due to their influence on the density structure and energy transfer into the region. Such waves are also important in submarine acoustics, underwater navigation, offshore structures, ocean mixing and biogeochemical processes, etc. over the shelf-slope region. The seasonal variability of internal tides in the western Bay of Bengal is examined by using three-dimensional MITgcm model. The numerical simulations are performed for different periods covering August-September, 2013; November-December, 2013 and March-April, 2014 representing monsoon, post-monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons respectively during which high temporal resolution observed data sets are available. The model is initially validated through the spectral estimate of density and the baroclinic velocities. From the estimate, it is found that its peak is associated with the semi-diurnal frequency at all the depths in both observations and model simulations for November-December and March-April. However in August, the estimate is found to be maximum near the inertial frequency at all available depths. EOF analysis suggests that about 70-80% of the total variance comes from Mode-1 semi-diurnal internal tide in both observations as well as in the model simulations. The phase speed, group speed and wavelength are found to be maximum for post-monsoon season compared to other two seasons. To understand the generation and propagation of internal tides over this region, barotropic-to-baroclinic M2 tidal energy conversion and energy flux are examined. The barotropic-to-baroclinic conversion occurs intensively along the shelf-slope regions and propagate towards the coast. The model simulated energy dissipation rate infers that its maximum occurs at the generation sites and hence the local mixing

  19. International Symposia on Scale Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Ito, Akihiko; Nakamura, Yuji; Kuwana, Kazunori

    2015-01-01

    This volume thoroughly covers scale modeling and serves as the definitive source of information on scale modeling as a powerful simplifying and clarifying tool used by scientists and engineers across many disciplines. The book elucidates techniques used when it would be too expensive, or too difficult, to test a system of interest in the field. Topics addressed in the current edition include scale modeling to study weather systems, diffusion of pollution in air or water, chemical process in 3-D turbulent flow, multiphase combustion, flame propagation, biological systems, behavior of materials at nano- and micro-scales, and many more. This is an ideal book for students, both graduate and undergraduate, as well as engineers and scientists interested in the latest developments in scale modeling. This book also: Enables readers to evaluate essential and salient aspects of profoundly complex systems, mechanisms, and phenomena at scale Offers engineers and designers a new point of view, liberating creative and inno...

  20. Editorial: Papers from the 7th International Conference on Dendrochronology - Cultural Diversity, Environmental Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margaret S. Devall; Elaine K. Sutherland

    2008-01-01

    The 7th International Conference on Dendrochronology - Cultural Diversity, Environmental Variability was held in Beijing, China from 11 to 17 June 2006. The conference was organized and hosted by the Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IB_CAS) in conjunction with the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) Working Group 5.01.07 (Tree-...

  1. Towards an integrated model of international migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas S. MASSEY

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Demographers have yet to develop a suitable integrated model of international migration and consequently have been very poor at forecasting immigration. This paper outlines the basic elements of an integrated model and surveys recent history to suggest the key challenges to model construction. A comprehensive theory must explain the structural forces that create a supply of people prone to migrate internationally, the structural origins of labour demand in receiving countries, the motivations of those who respond to these forces by choosing to migrate internationally, the growth and structure of transnational networks that arise to support international movement, the behaviour states in response to immigrant flows, and the influence of state actions on the behaviour of migrants. Recent history suggests that a good model needs to respect the salience of markets, recognize the circularity of migrant flows, appreciate the power of feedback effects, and be alert unanticipated consequences of policy actions.

  2. Spacecraft Internal Acoustic Environment Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, SShao-sheng R.; Allen, Christopher S.

    2009-01-01

    Acoustic modeling can be used to identify key noise sources, determine/analyze sub-allocated requirements, keep track of the accumulation of minor noise sources, and to predict vehicle noise levels at various stages in vehicle development, first with estimates of noise sources, later with experimental data. In FY09, the physical mockup developed in FY08, with interior geometric shape similar to Orion CM (Crew Module) IML (Interior Mode Line), was used to validate SEA (Statistical Energy Analysis) acoustic model development with realistic ventilation fan sources. The sound power levels of these sources were unknown a priori, as opposed to previous studies that RSS (Reference Sound Source) with known sound power level was used. The modeling results were evaluated based on comparisons to measurements of sound pressure levels over a wide frequency range, including the frequency range where SEA gives good results. Sound intensity measurement was performed over a rectangular-shaped grid system enclosing the ventilation fan source. Sound intensities were measured at the top, front, back, right, and left surfaces of the and system. Sound intensity at the bottom surface was not measured, but sound blocking material was placed tinder the bottom surface to reflect most of the incident sound energy back to the remaining measured surfaces. Integrating measured sound intensities over measured surfaces renders estimated sound power of the source. The reverberation time T6o of the mockup interior had been modified to match reverberation levels of ISS US Lab interior for speech frequency bands, i.e., 0.5k, 1k, 2k, 4 kHz, by attaching appropriately sized Thinsulate sound absorption material to the interior wall of the mockup. Sound absorption of Thinsulate was modeled in three methods: Sabine equation with measured mockup interior reverberation time T60, layup model based on past impedance tube testing, and layup model plus air absorption correction. The evaluation/validation was

  3. Combustion modeling in internal combustion engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeleznik, F. J.

    1976-01-01

    The fundamental assumptions of the Blizard and Keck combustion model for internal combustion engines are examined and a generalization of that model is derived. The most significant feature of the model is that it permits the occurrence of unburned hydrocarbons in the thermodynamic-kinetic modeling of exhaust gases. The general formulas are evaluated in two specific cases that are likely to be significant in the applications of the model.

  4. Diagnostic budget study of the internal variability in ensemble simulations of the Canadian RCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nikiema, Oumarou; Laprise, Rene [UQAM, Canadian Network for Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics, Centre ESCER, Departement des Sciences de la Terre et de l' Atmosphere, B.P. 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2011-06-15

    Due to the chaotic and nonlinear nature of the atmospheric dynamics, it is known that small differences in the initial conditions (IC) of models can grow and affect the simulation evolution. In this study, we perform a quantitative diagnostic budget calculation of the various diabatic and dynamical contributions to the time evolution and spatial distribution of internal variability (IV) in simulations with the nested Canadian Regional Climate Model. We establish prognostic budget equations of the IV for the potential temperature and the relative vorticity fields. For both of these variables, the IV equations present similar terms, notably terms relating to the transport of IV by ensemble-mean flow and to the covariance of fluctuations acting on the gradient of the ensemble-mean state. We show the skill of these equations to diagnose the IV that took place in an ensemble of 20 3-month (summer season) simulations that differed only in their IC. Our study suggests that the dominant terms responsible for the large increase of IV are either the covariance term involving the potential temperature fluctuations and diabatic heating fluctuations, or the covariance of inter-member fluctuations acting upon ensemble-mean gradients. Our results also show that, on average, the third-order terms are negligible, but they can become important when the IV is large. (orig.)

  5. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fatichi, S.; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-01-01

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  6. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  7. Generalized Network Psychometrics : Combining Network and Latent Variable Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Epskamp, S.; Rhemtulla, M.; Borsboom, D.

    2017-01-01

    We introduce the network model as a formal psychometric model, conceptualizing the covariance between psychometric indicators as resulting from pairwise interactions between observable variables in a network structure. This contrasts with standard psychometric models, in which the covariance between

  8. VizieR Online Data Catalog: AAVSO International Variable Star Index VSX (Watson+, 2006-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, C.; Henden, A. A.; Price, A.

    2018-05-01

    This file contains Galactic stars known or suspected to be variable. It lists all stars that have an entry in the AAVSO International Variable Star Index (VSX; http://www.aavso.org/vsx). The database consisted initially of the General Catalogue of Variable Stars (GCVS) and the New Catalogue of Suspected Variables (NSV) and was then supplemented with a large number of variable star catalogues, as well as individual variable star discoveries or variables found in the literature. Effort has also been invested to update the entries with the latest information regarding position, type and period and to remove duplicates. The VSX database is being continually updated and maintained. For historical reasons some objects outside of the Galaxy have been included. (3 data files).

  9. Modeling an internal gear pump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zongbin; Xu, Rongwu; He, Lin; Liao, Jian

    2018-05-01

    Considering the nature and characteristics of construction waste piles, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the stability of the slope of construction waste piles, and established the system of the assessment indexes for the slope failure risks of construction waste piles. Based on the basic principles and methods of fuzzy mathematics, the factor set and the remark set were established. The membership grade of continuous factor indexes is determined using the "ridge row distribution" function, while that for the discrete factor indexes was determined by the Delphi Method. For the weight of factors, the subjective weight was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and objective weight by the entropy weight method. And the distance function was introduced to determine the combination coefficient. This paper established a fuzzy comprehensive assessment model of slope failure risks of construction waste piles, and assessed pile slopes in the two dimensions of hazard and vulnerability. The root mean square of the hazard assessment result and vulnerability assessment result was the final assessment result. The paper then used a certain construction waste pile slope as the example for analysis, assessed the risks of the four stages of a landfill, verified the assessment model and analyzed the slope's failure risks and preventive measures against a slide.

  10. Predictor variable resolution governs modeled soil types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil mapping identifies different soil types by compressing a unique suite of spatial patterns and processes across multiple spatial scales. It can be quite difficult to quantify spatial patterns of soil properties with remotely sensed predictor variables. More specifically, matching the right scale...

  11. Modeling Coast Redwood Variable Retention Management Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    John-Pascal Berrill; Kevin O' Hara

    2007-01-01

    Variable retention is a flexible silvicultural system that provides forest managers with an alternative to clearcutting. While much of the standing volume is removed in one harvesting operation, residual stems are retained to provide structural complexity and wildlife habitat functions, or to accrue volume before removal during subsequent stand entries. The residual...

  12. Research on climate change and variability at the Ab dus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giorgi, F.; Molteni, F.

    2002-01-01

    The Physics of Weather and Climate Section at the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, established in 1998, is currently performing research on different aspects of climate variability, dealing with both natural and anthropogenic aspects of climate changes. In addition to performing diagnostic work on multi-decadal observational datasets and climate simulations carried out in major research centres, the PWC section has been developing its own climate modeling capability, which is focused on three main areas: a) modeling of regional climate change; b) seasonal forecasting at global and regional scale; c) development of simplified models of the general circulation. On topic a), research on different aspects of anthropogenic climate change is being carried out using the Regional Climate (RegCM) developed by Giorgi and collaborators at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research. Time-slice experiments with a high-resolution atmospheric GCM, comparing current climate conditions with future climate scenarios in selected decades, are also planned for the near future. On topic b), a strategy based on ensembles of high-resolution simulations with atmospheric GCM's, using sea surface temperature anomalies predicted by lower-resolution coupled models from other institutions, is currently under experimentation. A one-way nesting of RegCM into the GCM simulations will also be tested. On item c), a 5-layer atmospheric GCM with simplified physical parameterizations has been developed. This model has a very small computational cost compared with state-of-the-art GCMs, and is suitable for studies of natural climate variability on inter-decadal and intercentennial time scales. It is planned to couple this model to simplified ocean models of different complexity, from a simple, static mixed layer model, to simplified models of the tropical Pacific circulation suited to the simulation of the El Nino phenomenon. A joint project with the IAEA-MEL Laboratory in

  13. BIOMOVS: an international model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

    1988-01-01

    BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (author)

  14. BIOMOVS: An international model validation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.

    1987-01-01

    BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (orig.)

  15. Variable Fidelity Aeroelastic Toolkit - Structural Model, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed innovation is a methodology to incorporate variable fidelity structural models into steady and unsteady aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic analyses in...

  16. Hydration level is an internal variable for computing motivation to obtain water rewards in monkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minamimoto, Takafumi; Yamada, Hiroshi; Hori, Yukiko; Suhara, Tetsuya

    2012-05-01

    In the process of motivation to engage in a behavior, valuation of the expected outcome is comprised of not only external variables (i.e., incentives) but also internal variables (i.e., drive). However, the exact neural mechanism that integrates these variables for the computation of motivational value remains unclear. Besides, the signal of physiological needs, which serves as the primary internal variable for this computation, remains to be identified. Concerning fluid rewards, the osmolality level, one of the physiological indices for the level of thirst, may be an internal variable for valuation, since an increase in the osmolality level induces drinking behavior. Here, to examine the relationship between osmolality and the motivational value of a water reward, we repeatedly measured the blood osmolality level, while 2 monkeys continuously performed an instrumental task until they spontaneously stopped. We found that, as the total amount of water earned increased, the osmolality level progressively decreased (i.e., the hydration level increased) in an individual-dependent manner. There was a significant negative correlation between the error rate of the task (the proportion of trials with low motivation) and the osmolality level. We also found that the increase in the error rate with reward accumulation can be well explained by a formula describing the changes in the osmolality level. These results provide a biologically supported computational formula for the motivational value of a water reward that depends on the hydration level, enabling us to identify the neural mechanism that integrates internal and external variables.

  17. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climatic variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruane, A C; Hudson, N I; Asseng, S

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and ......-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.......We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and we...... evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal...

  18. The Matrix model, a driven state variables approach to non-equilibrium thermodynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongschaap, R.J.J.

    2001-01-01

    One of the new approaches in non-equilibrium thermodynamics is the so-called matrix model of Jongschaap. In this paper some features of this model are discussed. We indicate the differences with the more common approach based upon internal variables and the more sophisticated Hamiltonian and GENERIC

  19. ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Rogers

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict; b high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c buyers classified as compulsive; d individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

  20. Model-based internal wave processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candy, J.V.; Chambers, D.H.

    1995-06-09

    A model-based approach is proposed to solve the oceanic internal wave signal processing problem that is based on state-space representations of the normal-mode vertical velocity and plane wave horizontal velocity propagation models. It is shown that these representations can be utilized to spatially propagate the modal (dept) vertical velocity functions given the basic parameters (wave numbers, Brunt-Vaisala frequency profile etc.) developed from the solution of the associated boundary value problem as well as the horizontal velocity components. Based on this framework, investigations are made of model-based solutions to the signal enhancement problem for internal waves.

  1. Internal Representational Models of Attachment Relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crittenden, Patricia M.

    This paper outlines several properties of internal representational models (IRMs) and offers terminology that may help to differentiate the models. Properties of IRMs include focus, memory systems, content, cognitive function, "metastructure," quality of attachment, behavioral strategies, and attitude toward attachment. An IRM focuses on…

  2. Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

  3. Variable selection in Logistic regression model with genetic algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng; Trevino, Victor; Hoseini, Sayed Shahabuddin; Belciug, Smaranda; Boopathi, Arumugam Manivanna; Zhang, Ping; Gorunescu, Florin; Subha, Velappan; Dai, Songshi

    2018-02-01

    Variable or feature selection is one of the most important steps in model specification. Especially in the case of medical-decision making, the direct use of a medical database, without a previous analysis and preprocessing step, is often counterproductive. In this way, the variable selection represents the method of choosing the most relevant attributes from the database in order to build a robust learning models and, thus, to improve the performance of the models used in the decision process. In biomedical research, the purpose of variable selection is to select clinically important and statistically significant variables, while excluding unrelated or noise variables. A variety of methods exist for variable selection, but none of them is without limitations. For example, the stepwise approach, which is highly used, adds the best variable in each cycle generally producing an acceptable set of variables. Nevertheless, it is limited by the fact that it commonly trapped in local optima. The best subset approach can systematically search the entire covariate pattern space, but the solution pool can be extremely large with tens to hundreds of variables, which is the case in nowadays clinical data. Genetic algorithms (GA) are heuristic optimization approaches and can be used for variable selection in multivariable regression models. This tutorial paper aims to provide a step-by-step approach to the use of GA in variable selection. The R code provided in the text can be extended and adapted to other data analysis needs.

  4. Econometric modelling of international carbon tax regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Clare; Hall, Stephen; Mabey, N.

    1995-01-01

    An economometric model of fossil fuel demand has been estimated for eight OECD countries, relating coal, oil and gas demands to GDP and prices. In addition a model of endogenous technical progress has been estimated, aiming to include both price induced innovation in energy and structural change in the economy as long-term determinants of energy consumption. A number of possible international carbon/energy tax agreements are simulated, showing the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and comparing the two models. (author)

  5. Materials with memory initial-boundary value problems for constitutive equations with internal variables

    CERN Document Server

    Alber, Hans-Dieter

    1998-01-01

    This book contributes to the mathematical theory of systems of differential equations consisting of the partial differential equations resulting from conservation of mass and momentum, and of constitutive equations with internal variables. The investigations are guided by the objective of proving existence and uniqueness, and are based on the idea of transforming the internal variables and the constitutive equations. A larger number of constitutive equations from the engineering sciences are presented. The book is therefore suitable not only for specialists, but also for mathematicians seeking for an introduction in the field, and for engineers with a sound mathematical background.

  6. Fixed transaction costs and modelling limited dependent variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hempenius, A.L.

    1994-01-01

    As an alternative to the Tobit model, for vectors of limited dependent variables, I suggest a model, which follows from explicitly using fixed costs, if appropriate of course, in the utility function of the decision-maker.

  7. On the Temporal Variability of Low-Mode Internal Tides in the Deep Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Richard D.; Zaron, E. D.

    2010-01-01

    In situ measurements of internal tides are typically characterized by high temporal variability, with strong dependence on stratification, mesoscale eddies, and background currents commonly observed. Thus, it is surprising to find phase-locked internal tides detectable by satellite altimetry. An important question is how much tidal variability is missed by altimetry. We address this question in several ways. We subset the altimetry by season and find only very small changes -- an important exception being internal tides in the South China Sea where we observe strong seasonal dependence. A wavenumber-domain analysis confirms that throughout most of the global ocean there is little temporal variability in altimetric internal-tide signals, at least in the first baroclinic mode, which is the mode that dominates surface elevation. The analysis shows higher order modes to be significantly more variable. The results of this study have important practical implications for the anticipated SWOT wide-swath altimeter mission, for which removal of internal tide signals is critical for observing non-tidal submesoscale phenomena.

  8. Coevolution of variability models and related software artifacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Passos, Leonardo; Teixeira, Leopoldo; Dinztner, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    models coevolve with other artifact types, we study a large and complex real-world variant-rich software system: the Linux kernel. Specifically, we extract variability-coevolution patterns capturing changes in the variability model of the Linux kernel with subsequent changes in Makefiles and C source...

  9. Defining a Family of Cognitive Diagnosis Models Using Log-Linear Models with Latent Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, Robert A.; Templin, Jonathan L.; Willse, John T.

    2009-01-01

    This paper uses log-linear models with latent variables (Hagenaars, in "Loglinear Models with Latent Variables," 1993) to define a family of cognitive diagnosis models. In doing so, the relationship between many common models is explicitly defined and discussed. In addition, because the log-linear model with latent variables is a general model for…

  10. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

    2017-09-01

    High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

  11. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

    2018-06-01

    High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

  12. Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Eric W; Hill, Ryan A; Leibowitz, Scott G; Olsen, Anthony R; Thornbrugh, Darren J; Weber, Marc H

    2017-07-01

    Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological data sets, there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating data set consists of the good/poor condition of n = 1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p = 212) of landscape features from the StreamCat data set as potential predictors. We compare two types of RF models: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors and a reduced variable set model selected using a backward elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substantial improvement in cross-validated accuracy as a result of variable reduction. Moreover, the backward elimination procedure tended to select too few variables and exhibited numerous issues such as upwardly biased out-of-bag accuracy estimates and instabilities in the spatial predictions. We use simulations to further support and generalize results from the analysis of real data. A main purpose of this work is to elucidate issues of model selection bias and instability to ecologists interested in

  13. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013

  14. Variable Selection for Regression Models of Percentile Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouad, G.

    2017-12-01

    Percentile flows describe the flow magnitude equaled or exceeded for a given percent of time, and are widely used in water resource management. However, these statistics are normally unavailable since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows of ungauged basins are often predicted using regression models based on readily observable basin characteristics, such as mean elevation. The number of these independent variables is too large to evaluate all possible models. A subset of models is typically evaluated using automatic procedures, like stepwise regression. This ignores a large variety of methods from the field of feature (variable) selection and physical understanding of percentile flows. A study of 918 basins in the United States was conducted to compare an automatic regression procedure to the following variable selection methods: (1) principal component analysis, (2) correlation analysis, (3) random forests, (4) genetic programming, (5) Bayesian networks, and (6) physical understanding. The automatic regression procedure only performed better than principal component analysis. Poor performance of the regression procedure was due to a commonly used filter for multicollinearity, which rejected the strongest models because they had cross-correlated independent variables. Multicollinearity did not decrease model performance in validation because of a representative set of calibration basins. Variable selection methods based strictly on predictive power (numbers 2-5 from above) performed similarly, likely indicating a limit to the predictive power of the variables. Similar performance was also reached using variables selected based on physical understanding, a finding that substantiates recent calls to emphasize physical understanding in modeling for predictions in ungauged basins. The strongest variables highlighted the importance of geology and land cover, whereas widely used topographic variables were the weakest predictors. Variables suffered from a high

  15. Internal versus external controls on age variability: Definitions, origins and implications in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harman, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    The unsteadiness of stream water age is now well established, but the controls on the age dynamics, and the adequate representation and prediction of those dynamics, are not. A basic distinction can be made between internal variability that arises from changes in the proportions of flow moving through the diverse flow pathways of a hydrologic system, and external variability that arises from the stochasticity of inputs and outputs (such as precipitation and streamflow). In this talk I will show how these two types of age variability can be formally defined and distinguished within the framework of rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) functions. Internal variability implies variations in time in the rSAS function, while external variability does not. This leads naturally to the definition of several modes of internal variability, reflecting generic ways that system flowpaths may be rearranged. This rearrangement may be induced by fluctuations in the system state (such as catchment wetness), or by longer-term changes in catchment structure (such as land use change). One type of change, the 'inverse storage effect' is characterized by an increase in the release of young water from the system in response to an increase in overall system storage. This effect can be seen in many hydrologic settings, and has important implications for the effect of altered hydroclimatic conditions on solute transport through a landscape. External variability, such as increased precipitation, can induce a decrease in mean transit time (and vice versa), but this effect is greatly enhanced if accompanied by an internal shift in flow pathways that increases the relative importance of younger water. These effects will be illustrated using data from field and experimental studies.

  16. Variability aware compact model characterization for statistical circuit design optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Ying; Qian, Kun; Spanos, Costas J.

    2012-03-01

    Variability modeling at the compact transistor model level can enable statistically optimized designs in view of limitations imposed by the fabrication technology. In this work we propose an efficient variabilityaware compact model characterization methodology based on the linear propagation of variance. Hierarchical spatial variability patterns of selected compact model parameters are directly calculated from transistor array test structures. This methodology has been implemented and tested using transistor I-V measurements and the EKV-EPFL compact model. Calculation results compare well to full-wafer direct model parameter extractions. Further studies are done on the proper selection of both compact model parameters and electrical measurement metrics used in the method.

  17. Variable amplitude fatigue, modelling and testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svensson, Thomas.

    1993-01-01

    Problems related to metal fatigue modelling and testing are here treated in four different papers. In the first paper different views of the subject are summarised in a literature survey. In the second paper a new model for fatigue life is investigated. Experimental results are established which are promising for further development of the mode. In the third paper a method is presented that generates a stochastic process, suitable to fatigue testing. The process is designed in order to resemble certain fatigue related features in service life processes. In the fourth paper fatigue problems in transport vibrations are treated

  18. A Model of International Communication Media Appraisal and Exposure: A Comprehensive Test in Belize.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, J. David; Oliveira, Omar Souki

    A study constituted the fifth phase of a programmatic research effort designed to develop and test a model of international communications media exposure and appraisal. The model posits that three variables--editorial tone, communication potential, and utility--have positive determinant effects on these dependent variables. Research was carried…

  19. modelling relationship between rainfall variability and yields

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , S. and ... factors to rice yield. Adebayo and Adebayo (1997) developed double log multiple regression model to predict rice yield in Adamawa State, Nigeria. The general form of .... the second are the crop yield/values for millet and sorghum ...

  20. Can oceanic reanalyses be used to assess recent anthropogenic changes and low-frequency internal variability of upper ocean temperature?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corre, L.; Terray, L.; Weaver, A. [Cerfacs-CNRS, Toulouse (France); Balmaseda, M. [E.C.M.W.F, Reading (United Kingdom); Ribes, A. [CNRM-GAME, Meteo France-CNRS, Toulouse (France)

    2012-03-15

    A multivariate analysis of the upper ocean thermal structure is used to examine the recent long-term changes and decadal variability in the upper ocean heat content as represented by model-based ocean reanalyses and a model-independent objective analysis. The three variables used are the mean temperature above the 14 C isotherm, its depth and a fixed depth mean temperature (250 m mean temperature). The mean temperature above the 14 C isotherm is a convenient, albeit simple, way to isolate thermodynamical changes by filtering out dynamical changes related to thermocline vertical displacements. The global upper ocean observations and reanalyses exhibit very similar warming trends (0.045 C per decade) over the period 1965-2005, superimposed with marked decadal variability in the 1970s and 1980s. The spatial patterns of the regression between indices (representative of anthropogenic changes and known modes of internal decadal variability), and the three variables associated with the ocean heat content are used as fingerprint to separate out the different contributions. The choice of variables provides information about the local heat absorption, vertical distribution and horizontal redistribution of heat, this latter being suggestive of changes in ocean circulation. The discrepancy between the objective analysis and the reanalyses, as well as the spread among the different reanalyses, are used as a simple estimate of ocean state uncertainties. Two robust findings result from this analysis: (1) the signature of anthropogenic changes is qualitatively different from those of the internal decadal variability associated to the Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation, and (2) the anthropogenic changes in ocean heat content do not only consist of local heat absorption, but are likely related with changes in the ocean circulation, with a clear shallowing of the tropical thermocline in the Pacific and Indian oceans. (orig.)

  1. International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in Washington, DC 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universitie...

  2. Modelling and controlling infectious diseases | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The research team is exploring the potential of mathematical modelling to ... to China's health system and improvements to its medical research capacity. ... and on the scientific board of the Gates Foundation's Global Health program. ... He has published more than 400 research papers in national and international journals.

  3. Prognostic importance of glycaemic variability on hospital mortality in patients hospitalised in Internal Medicine Departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sáenz-Abad, D; Gimeno-Orna, J A; Pérez-Calvo, J I

    2015-12-01

    The objective was to assess the prognostic importance of various glycaemic control measures on hospital mortality. Retrospective, analytical cohort study that included patients hospitalised in internal medicine departments with a diagnosis related to diabetes mellitus (DM), excluding acute decompensations. The clinical endpoint was hospital mortality. We recorded clinical, analytical and glycaemic control-related variables (scheduled insulin administration, plasma glycaemia at admission, HbA1c, mean glycaemia (MG) and in-hospital glycaemic variability and hypoglycaemia). The measurement of hospital mortality predictors was performed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. A total of 384 patients (50.3% men) were included. The mean age was 78.5 (SD, 10.3) years. The DM-related diagnoses were type 2 diabetes (83.6%) and stress hyperglycaemia (6.8%). Thirty-one (8.1%) patients died while in hospital. In the multivariate analysis, the best model for predicting mortality (R(2)=0.326; P<.0001) consisted, in order of importance, of age (χ(2)=8.19; OR=1.094; 95% CI 1.020-1.174; P=.004), Charlson index (χ(2)=7.28; OR=1.48; 95% CI 1.11-1.99; P=.007), initial glycaemia (χ(2)=6.05; OR=1.007; 95% CI 1.001-1.014; P=.014), HbA1c (χ(2)=5.76; OR=0.59; 95% CI 0.33-1; P=.016), glycaemic variability (χ(2)=4.41; OR=1.031; 95% CI 1-1.062; P=.036), need for corticosteroid treatment (χ(2)=4.03; OR=3.1; 95% CI 1-9.64; P=.045), administration of scheduled insulin (χ(2)=3.98; OR=0.26; 95% CI 0.066-1; P=.046) and systolic blood pressure (χ(2)=2.92; OR=0.985; 95% CI 0.97-1.003; P=.088). An increase in initial glycaemia and in-hospital glycaemic variability predict the risk of mortality for hospitalised patients with DM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

  4. Linear latent variable models: the lava-package

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Klaus Kähler; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2013-01-01

    are implemented including robust standard errors for clustered correlated data, multigroup analyses, non-linear parameter constraints, inference with incomplete data, maximum likelihood estimation with censored and binary observations, and instrumental variable estimators. In addition an extensive simulation......An R package for specifying and estimating linear latent variable models is presented. The philosophy of the implementation is to separate the model specification from the actual data, which leads to a dynamic and easy way of modeling complex hierarchical structures. Several advanced features...

  5. Modelling internal migration in Kenya: an econometric analysis with limited data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, G M; Milne, W J

    1988-09-01

    "In this paper the determinants of internal migration in Kenya are analyzed on the basis of a human capital model. Explanatory variables included in the specification are both economic (wage rates and employment rates) and noneconomic (for example, population density and educational attainment). Also incorporated are variables which reflect intervening opportunities.... The econometric results show that destination variables are important determinants of internal migration, as is distance between the districts. Further, the variables for the intervening opportunities add significantly to the explanatory power of the model." excerpt

  6. Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

    1996-11-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall

  7. International Nuclear Model. Volume 3. Program description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andress, D.

    1985-01-01

    This is Volume 3 of three volumes of documentation of the International Nuclear Model (INM). This volume presents the Program Description of the International Nuclear Model, which was developed for the Nuclear and Alternate Fuels Division (NAFD), Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, Energy Information Administration (EIA), US Department of Energy (DOE). The International Nuclear Model (INM) is a comprehensive model of the commercial nuclear power industry. It simulates economic decisions for reactor deployment and fuel management decision based on an input set of technical economic and scenario parameters. The technical parameters include reactor operating characteristics, fuel cycle timing and mass loss factors, and enrichment tails assays. Economic parameters include fuel cycle costs, financial data, and tax alternatives. INM has a broad range of scenario options covering, for example, process constraints, interregional activities, reprocessing, and fuel management selection. INM reports reactor deployment schedules, electricity generation, and fuel cycle requirements and costs. It also has specialized reports for extended burnup and permanent disposal. Companion volumes to Volume 3 are: Volume 1 - Model Overview, and Volume 2 - Data Base Relationships

  8. International Space Station Model Correlation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laible, Michael R.; Fitzpatrick, Kristin; Hodge, Jennifer; Grygier, Michael

    2018-01-01

    This paper summarizes the on-orbit structural dynamic data and the related modal analysis, model validation and correlation performed for the International Space Station (ISS) configuration ISS Stage ULF7, 2015 Dedicated Thruster Firing (DTF). The objective of this analysis is to validate and correlate the analytical models used to calculate the ISS internal dynamic loads and compare the 2015 DTF with previous tests. During the ISS configurations under consideration, on-orbit dynamic measurements were collected using the three main ISS instrumentation systems; Internal Wireless Instrumentation System (IWIS), External Wireless Instrumentation System (EWIS) and the Structural Dynamic Measurement System (SDMS). The measurements were recorded during several nominal on-orbit DTF tests on August 18, 2015. Experimental modal analyses were performed on the measured data to extract modal parameters including frequency, damping, and mode shape information. Correlation and comparisons between test and analytical frequencies and mode shapes were performed to assess the accuracy of the analytical models for the configurations under consideration. These mode shapes were also compared to earlier tests. Based on the frequency comparisons, the accuracy of the mathematical models is assessed and model refinement recommendations are given. In particular, results of the first fundamental mode will be discussed, nonlinear results will be shown, and accelerometer placement will be assessed.

  9. Variable-Structure Control of a Model Glider Airplane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waszak, Martin R.; Anderson, Mark R.

    2008-01-01

    A variable-structure control system designed to enable a fuselage-heavy airplane to recover from spin has been demonstrated in a hand-launched, instrumented model glider airplane. Variable-structure control is a high-speed switching feedback control technique that has been developed for control of nonlinear dynamic systems.

  10. Verification of models for ballistic movement time and endpoint variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ray F; Drury, Colin G

    2013-01-01

    A hand control movement is composed of several ballistic movements. The time required in performing a ballistic movement and its endpoint variability are two important properties in developing movement models. The purpose of this study was to test potential models for predicting these two properties. Twelve participants conducted ballistic movements of specific amplitudes using a drawing tablet. The measured data of movement time and endpoint variability were then used to verify the models. This study was successful with Hoffmann and Gan's movement time model (Hoffmann, 1981; Gan and Hoffmann 1988) predicting more than 90.7% data variance for 84 individual measurements. A new theoretically developed ballistic movement variability model, proved to be better than Howarth, Beggs, and Bowden's (1971) model, predicting on average 84.8% of stopping-variable error and 88.3% of aiming-variable errors. These two validated models will help build solid theoretical movement models and evaluate input devices. This article provides better models for predicting end accuracy and movement time of ballistic movements that are desirable in rapid aiming tasks, such as keying in numbers on a smart phone. The models allow better design of aiming tasks, for example button sizes on mobile phones for different user populations.

  11. Interdecadal variability in a global coupled model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, J.S. von.

    1994-01-01

    Interdecadal variations are studied in a 325-year simulation performed by a coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model. The patterns obtained in this study may be considered as characteristic patterns for interdecadal variations. 1. The atmosphere: Interdecadal variations have no preferred time scales, but reveal well-organized spatial structures. They appear as two modes, one is related with variations of the tropical easterlies and the other with the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Both have red spectra. The amplitude of the associated wind anomalies is largest in the upper troposphere. The associated temperature anomalies are in thermal-wind balance with the zonal winds and are out-of-phase between the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. 2. The Pacific Ocean: The dominant mode in the Pacific appears to be wind-driven in the midlatitudes and is related to air-sea interaction processes during one stage of the oscillation in the tropics. Anomalies of this mode propagate westward in the tropics and the northward (southwestward) in the North (South) Pacific on a time scale of about 10 to 20 years. (orig.)

  12. Spatial variability and parametric uncertainty in performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pensado, Osvaldo; Mancillas, James; Painter, Scott; Tomishima, Yasuo

    2011-01-01

    The problem of defining an appropriate treatment of distribution functions (which could represent spatial variability or parametric uncertainty) is examined based on a generic performance assessment model for a high-level waste repository. The generic model incorporated source term models available in GoldSim ® , the TDRW code for contaminant transport in sparse fracture networks with a complex fracture-matrix interaction process, and a biosphere dose model known as BDOSE TM . Using the GoldSim framework, several Monte Carlo sampling approaches and transport conceptualizations were evaluated to explore the effect of various treatments of spatial variability and parametric uncertainty on dose estimates. Results from a model employing a representative source and ensemble-averaged pathway properties were compared to results from a model allowing for stochastic variation of transport properties along streamline segments (i.e., explicit representation of spatial variability within a Monte Carlo realization). We concluded that the sampling approach and the definition of an ensemble representative do influence consequence estimates. In the examples analyzed in this paper, approaches considering limited variability of a transport resistance parameter along a streamline increased the frequency of fast pathways resulting in relatively high dose estimates, while those allowing for broad variability along streamlines increased the frequency of 'bottlenecks' reducing dose estimates. On this basis, simplified approaches with limited consideration of variability may suffice for intended uses of the performance assessment model, such as evaluation of site safety. (author)

  13. Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malaeb, Z.A.; Kevin, Summers J.; Pugesek, B.H.

    2000-01-01

    Structural equation modeling is an advanced multivariate statistical process with which a researcher can construct theoretical concepts, test their measurement reliability, hypothesize and test a theory about their relationships, take into account measurement errors, and consider both direct and indirect effects of variables on one another. Latent variables are theoretical concepts that unite phenomena under a single term, e.g., ecosystem health, environmental condition, and pollution (Bollen, 1989). Latent variables are not measured directly but can be expressed in terms of one or more directly measurable variables called indicators. For some researchers, defining, constructing, and examining the validity of latent variables may be the end task of itself. For others, testing hypothesized relationships of latent variables may be of interest. We analyzed the correlation matrix of eleven environmental variables from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) using methods of structural equation modeling. We hypothesized and tested a conceptual model to characterize the interdependencies between four latent variables-sediment contamination, natural variability, biodiversity, and growth potential. In particular, we were interested in measuring the direct, indirect, and total effects of sediment contamination and natural variability on biodiversity and growth potential. The model fit the data well and accounted for 81% of the variability in biodiversity and 69% of the variability in growth potential. It revealed a positive total effect of natural variability on growth potential that otherwise would have been judged negative had we not considered indirect effects. That is, natural variability had a negative direct effect on growth potential of magnitude -0.3251 and a positive indirect effect mediated through biodiversity of magnitude 0.4509, yielding a net positive total effect of 0

  14. Multiple Imputation of Predictor Variables Using Generalized Additive Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Roel; van Buuren, Stef; Spiess, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The sensitivity of multiple imputation methods to deviations from their distributional assumptions is investigated using simulations, where the parameters of scientific interest are the coefficients of a linear regression model, and values in predictor variables are missing at random. The

  15. Higher-dimensional cosmological model with variable gravitational ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We have studied five-dimensional homogeneous cosmological models with variable and bulk viscosity in Lyra geometry. Exact solutions for the field equations have been obtained and physical properties of the models are discussed. It has been observed that the results of new models are well within the observational ...

  16. A variable-order fractal derivative model for anomalous diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xiaoting

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper pays attention to develop a variable-order fractal derivative model for anomalous diffusion. Previous investigations have indicated that the medium structure, fractal dimension or porosity may change with time or space during solute transport processes, results in time or spatial dependent anomalous diffusion phenomena. Hereby, this study makes an attempt to introduce a variable-order fractal derivative diffusion model, in which the index of fractal derivative depends on temporal moment or spatial position, to characterize the above mentioned anomalous diffusion (or transport processes. Compared with other models, the main advantages in description and the physical explanation of new model are explored by numerical simulation. Further discussions on the dissimilitude such as computational efficiency, diffusion behavior and heavy tail phenomena of the new model and variable-order fractional derivative model are also offered.

  17. Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

    2018-04-01

    This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

  18. One-Dimensional Modelling of Internal Ballistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monreal-González, G.; Otón-Martínez, R. A.; Velasco, F. J. S.; García-Cascáles, J. R.; Ramírez-Fernández, F. J.

    2017-10-01

    A one-dimensional model is introduced in this paper for problems of internal ballistics involving solid propellant combustion. First, the work presents the physical approach and equations adopted. Closure relationships accounting for the physical phenomena taking place during combustion (interfacial friction, interfacial heat transfer, combustion) are deeply discussed. Secondly, the numerical method proposed is presented. Finally, numerical results provided by this code (UXGun) are compared with results of experimental tests and with the outcome from a well-known zero-dimensional code. The model provides successful results in firing tests of artillery guns, predicting with good accuracy the maximum pressure in the chamber and muzzle velocity what highlights its capabilities as prediction/design tool for internal ballistics.

  19. Preliminary Multi-Variable Cost Model for Space Telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, H. Philip; Hendrichs, Todd

    2010-01-01

    Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper reviews the methodology used to develop space telescope cost models; summarizes recently published single variable models; and presents preliminary results for two and three variable cost models. Some of the findings are that increasing mass reduces cost; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years.

  20. An International Model for Antibiotics Regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Emilie

    We face a global antibiotics resistance crisis. Antibiotic drugs are rapidly losing their effectiveness, potentially propelling us toward a post-antibiotic world. The largest use of antibiotics in the world is in food-producing animals. Food producers administer these drugs in routine, low doses—the types of doses that are incidentally the most conducive to breeding antibiotic resistance. In general, individual countries have been too slow to act in regulating misuse and overuse of antibiotics in foodproducing animals. This problem will only worsen with the significant projected growth in meat consumption and production expected in emerging economies in the near future. Although individual countries regulating antibiotics can have important effects, one country alone cannot insulate itself entirely from the effects of antibiotic resistance, nor can one country solve the crisis for itself or for the world. The global nature of the food system and the urgency of the problem require immediate global solutions. Adapting a democratic experimentalist approach at the international level can help achieve this goal. Using an international democratic experimentalist framework in conjunction with the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) would provide for increased systematized data collection and lead to heightened, scientifically informed OIE standards, enforceable by the World Trade Organization (WTO), which could have a significant impact on the reduction of subtherapeutic use of antibiotics internationally. International democratic experimentalism addresses the global intricacy, time sensitivity, context- and culture-specificity, and knowledgeintensiveness of this problem. By encouraging more countries to experiment to solve this problem, the democratic experimentalist model would help develop a larger database of solutions to enable more meaningful cross-country comparisons across a wider range of contexts. This approach maintains democratic governance and

  1. Effective properties of linear viscoelastic heterogeneous media: Internal variables formulation and extension to ageing behaviours

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricaud, J.M.; Masson, R.; Masson, R.

    2009-01-01

    The Laplace-Carson transform classically used for homogenization of linear viscoelastic heterogeneous media yields integral formulations of effective behaviours. These are far less convenient than internal variables formulations with respect to computational aspects as well as to theoretical extensions to closely related problems such as ageing viscoelasticity. Noticing that the collocation method is usually adopted to invert the Laplace-Carson transforms, we first remark that this approximation is equivalent to an internal variables formulation which is exact in some specific situations. This result is illustrated for a two-phase composite with phases obeying a compressible Maxwellian behaviour. Next, an incremental formulation allows to extend at each time step the previous general framework to ageing viscoelasticity. Finally, with the help of a creep test of a porous viscoelastic matrix reinforced with elastic inclusions, it is shown that the method yields accurate predictions (comparing to reference results provided by periodic cell finite element computations). (authors)

  2. Bayesian approach to errors-in-variables in regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozliman, Nur Aainaa; Ibrahim, Adriana Irawati Nur; Yunus, Rossita Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    In many applications and experiments, data sets are often contaminated with error or mismeasured covariates. When at least one of the covariates in a model is measured with error, Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model can be used. Measurement error, when not corrected, would cause misleading statistical inferences and analysis. Therefore, our goal is to examine the relationship of the outcome variable and the unobserved exposure variable given the observed mismeasured surrogate by applying the Bayesian formulation to the EIV model. We shall extend the flexible parametric method proposed by Hossain and Gustafson (2009) to another nonlinear regression model which is the Poisson regression model. We shall then illustrate the application of this approach via a simulation study using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods.

  3. A model for AGN variability on multiple time-scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartori, Lia F.; Schawinski, Kevin; Trakhtenbrot, Benny; Caplar, Neven; Treister, Ezequiel; Koss, Michael J.; Urry, C. Megan; Zhang, C. E.

    2018-05-01

    We present a framework to link and describe active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability on a wide range of time-scales, from days to billions of years. In particular, we concentrate on the AGN variability features related to changes in black hole fuelling and accretion rate. In our framework, the variability features observed in different AGN at different time-scales may be explained as realisations of the same underlying statistical properties. In this context, we propose a model to simulate the evolution of AGN light curves with time based on the probability density function (PDF) and power spectral density (PSD) of the Eddington ratio (L/LEdd) distribution. Motivated by general galaxy population properties, we propose that the PDF may be inspired by the L/LEdd distribution function (ERDF), and that a single (or limited number of) ERDF+PSD set may explain all observed variability features. After outlining the framework and the model, we compile a set of variability measurements in terms of structure function (SF) and magnitude difference. We then combine the variability measurements on a SF plot ranging from days to Gyr. The proposed framework enables constraints on the underlying PSD and the ability to link AGN variability on different time-scales, therefore providing new insights into AGN variability and black hole growth phenomena.

  4. Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

    OpenAIRE

    Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

    2012-01-01

    Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

  5. Interacting ghost dark energy models with variable G and Λ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, J.; Khurshudyan, M.; Movsisyan, A.; Farahani, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this paper we consider several phenomenological models of variable Λ. Model of a flat Universe with variable Λ and G is accepted. It is well known, that varying G and Λ gives rise to modified field equations and modified conservation laws, which gives rise to many different manipulations and assumptions in literature. We will consider two component fluid, which parameters will enter to Λ. Interaction between fluids with energy densities ρ1 and ρ2 assumed as Q = 3Hb(ρ1+ρ2). We have numerical analyze of important cosmological parameters like EoS parameter of the composed fluid and deceleration parameter q of the model.

  6. Variable selection for mixture and promotion time cure rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masud, Abdullah; Tu, Wanzhu; Yu, Zhangsheng

    2016-11-16

    Failure-time data with cured patients are common in clinical studies. Data from these studies are typically analyzed with cure rate models. Variable selection methods have not been well developed for cure rate models. In this research, we propose two least absolute shrinkage and selection operators based methods, for variable selection in mixture and promotion time cure models with parametric or nonparametric baseline hazards. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess the operating characteristics of the proposed methods. We illustrate the use of the methods using data from a study of childhood wheezing. © The Author(s) 2016.

  7. a modified intervention model for gross domestic product variable

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    observations on a variable that have been measured at ... assumption that successive values in the data file ... these interventions, one may try to evaluate the effect of ... generalized series by comparing the distinct periods. A ... the process of checking for adequacy of the model based .... As a result, the model's forecast will.

  8. Simple model for crop photosynthesis in terms of weather variables ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical mathematical model for describing crop photosynthetic rate in terms of the weather variables and crop characteristics is proposed. The model utilizes a series of efficiency parameters, each of which reflect the fraction of possible photosynthetic rate permitted by the different weather elements or crop architecture.

  9. Model for expressing leaf photosynthesis in terms of weather variables

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical mathematical model for describing photosynthesis in individual leaves in terms of weather variables is proposed. The model utilizes a series of efficiency parameters, each of which reflect the fraction of potential photosynthetic rate permitted by the different environmental elements. These parameters are useful ...

  10. The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

    2017-08-01

    The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

  11. Efficient Business Service Consumption by Customization with Variability Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Stollberg

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The establishment of service orientation in industry determines the need for efficient engineering technologies that properly support the whole life cycle of service provision and consumption. A central challenge is adequate support for the efficient employment of komplex services in their individual application context. This becomes particularly important for large-scale enterprise technologies where generic services are designed for reuse in several business scenarios. In this article we complement our work regarding Service Variability Modelling presented in a previous publication. There we presented an approach for the customization of services for individual application contexts by creating simplified variants, based on model-driven variability management. That work presents our revised service variability metamodel, new features of the variability tools and an applicability study, which reveals that substantial improvements on the efficiency of standard business service consumption under both usability and economic aspects can be achieved.

  12. Modelling the effects of spatial variability on radionuclide migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The NEA workshop reflect the present status in national waste management program, specifically in spatial variability and performance assessment of geologic disposal sites for deed repository system the four sessions were: Spatial Variability: Its Definition and Significance to Performance Assessment and Site Characterisation; Experience with the Modelling of Radionuclide Migration in the Presence of Spatial Variability in Various Geological Environments; New Areas for Investigation: Two Personal Views; What is Wanted and What is Feasible: Views and Future Plans in Selected Waste Management Organisations. The 26 papers presented on the four oral sessions and on the poster session have been abstracted and indexed individually for the INIS database. (R.P.)

  13. From Transition Systems to Variability Models and from Lifted Model Checking Back to UPPAAL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimovski, Aleksandar; Wasowski, Andrzej

    2017-01-01

    efficient lifted (family-based) model checking for real-time variability models. This reduces the cost of maintaining specialized family-based real-time model checkers. Real-time variability models can be model checked using the standard UPPAAL. We have implemented abstractions as syntactic source...

  14. Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Blume

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA; a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX; a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP; and support vector regression (SVR. These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.

  15. Analytical model of internally coupled ears

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vossen, Christine; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jakob; Leo van Hemmen, J

    2010-01-01

    Lizards and many birds possess a specialized hearing mechanism: internally coupled ears where the tympanic membranes connect through a large mouth cavity so that the vibrations of the tympanic membranes influence each other. This coupling enhances the phase differences and creates amplitude...... additionally provides the opportunity to incorporate the effect of the asymmetrically attached columella, which leads to the activation of higher membrane vibration modes. Incorporating this effect, the analytical model can explain measurements taken from the tympanic membrane of a living lizard, for example...

  16. Valsalva and gravitational variability of the internal jugular vein and common femoral vein: Ultrasound assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beddy, P. [Department of Radiology, The Adelaide and Meath Hospital, Tallaght, Dublin 24 (Ireland)]. E-mail: pbeddy@eircom.net; Geoghegan, T. [Department of Radiology, The Adelaide and Meath Hospital, Tallaght, Dublin 24 (Ireland); Ramesh, N. [Department of Radiology, The Adelaide and Meath Hospital, Tallaght, Dublin 24 (Ireland); Buckley, O. [Department of Radiology, The Adelaide and Meath Hospital, Tallaght, Dublin 24 (Ireland); O' Brien, J. [Department of Radiology, The Adelaide and Meath Hospital, Tallaght, Dublin 24 (Ireland); Colville, J. [Department of Radiology, The Adelaide and Meath Hospital, Tallaght, Dublin 24 (Ireland); Torreggiani, W.C. [Department of Radiology, The Adelaide and Meath Hospital, Tallaght, Dublin 24 (Ireland)

    2006-05-15

    Purpose: Central venous cannulation via the common femoral vein is an important starting point for many interventions. The purpose of this study was to determine the optimum conditions for cannulation of the femoral vein and to compare these with the relative changes in the internal jugular vein. Methods: High-resolution 2D ultrasound was utilised to determine variability of the calibre of the femoral and internal jugular veins in 10 healthy subjects. Venous diameter was assessed during the Valsalva manoeuvre and in different degrees of the Trendelenburg position. Results: The Valsalva manoeuvre significantly increased the size of the femoral and internal jugular veins. There was a relatively greater increase in femoral vein diameter when compared with the internal jugular vein of 40 and 29%, respectively. Changes in body inclination (Trendelenburg position) did not significantly alter the luminal diameter of the femoral vein. However, it significantly increased internal jugular vein diameter. Conclusions: Femoral vein cannulation is augmented by the Valsalva manoeuvre but not significantly altered by the gravitational position of the subject.

  17. Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-12-01

    Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

  18. Plasticity models of material variability based on uncertainty quantification techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Reese E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Rizzi, Francesco [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Boyce, Brad [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Templeton, Jeremy Alan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Ostien, Jakob [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-11-01

    The advent of fabrication techniques like additive manufacturing has focused attention on the considerable variability of material response due to defects and other micro-structural aspects. This variability motivates the development of an enhanced design methodology that incorporates inherent material variability to provide robust predictions of performance. In this work, we develop plasticity models capable of representing the distribution of mechanical responses observed in experiments using traditional plasticity models of the mean response and recently developed uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques. Lastly, we demonstrate that the new method provides predictive realizations that are superior to more traditional ones, and how these UQ techniques can be used in model selection and assessing the quality of calibrated physical parameters.

  19. International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nachet, S.

    1996-01-01

    This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, etc. The model built is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

  20. International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nachet, S.

    1996-01-01

    This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, ect. The model build is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil and natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

  1. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

    2017-10-01

    Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

  2. Variable-angle total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy of intact cells of Arabidopsis thaliana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Myung K

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy (TIRFM is a powerful tool for observing fluorescently labeled molecules on the plasma membrane surface of animal cells. However, the utility of TIRFM in plant cell studies has been limited by the fact that plants have cell walls, thick peripheral layers surrounding the plasma membrane. Recently, a new technique known as variable-angle epifluorescence microscopy (VAEM was developed to circumvent this problem. However, the lack of a detailed analysis of the optical principles underlying VAEM has limited its applications in plant-cell biology. Results Here, we present theoretical and experimental evidence supporting the use of variable-angle TIRFM in observations of intact plant cells. We show that when total internal reflection occurs at the cell wall/cytosol interface with an appropriate angle of incidence, an evanescent wave field of constant depth is produced inside the cytosol. Results of experimental TIRFM observations of the dynamic behaviors of phototropin 1 (a membrane receptor protein and clathrin light chain (a vesicle coat protein support our theoretical analysis. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that variable-angle TIRFM is appropriate for quantitative live imaging of cells in intact tissues of Arabidopsis thaliana.

  3. Modeling the international competitiveness of Botswana's coal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fichani, Khaulani

    Botswana has vast proven deposits of steam coal, which for a long time it has wanted to develop but without much success. The main objectives of this study are: (1) to analyze the time schedule of coal exports likely to be forthcoming from Botswana and the land routes for these exports; (2) to determine the competitiveness of Botswana's coal in the world steam coal markets and (3) to make recommendations on the appropriate policy for the exploitation of this coal. To accomplish these objectives, we construct a model of the seaborne steam coal trade consisting of exporters and importers with a substantial share in this trade. We econometrically estimate the long run marginal cost functions for net exporters and employ these to construct a spatial and dynamic model of the world steam coal trade with elastic supply and inelastic demand. This model is applied to simulate Botswana's competitiveness in this trade over the period 1995 to 2010 from a 1990 base year with a decision criterion that minimizes the sum of discounted capital costs of mine development, variable supply costs, rail and maritime transportation costs. Finally, we employ the model to forecast the likely optimal size of mine, timing of production capacity and choice of export port for Botswana's coal for the years 2005 and 2010. The base year for the forecast is 2000. The simulation results indicate that Botswana's coal would have been competitive in the steam coal markets of Western Europe and Asia. The forecast results indicate that Botswana's coal would also be competitive in these markets in the future. These results are least sensitive to changes in rail transportation and variable supply costs but are sensitive to capital costs for mine development.

  4. Modeling Turbulent Combustion for Variable Prandtl and Schmidt Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, H. A.

    2004-01-01

    This report consists of two abstracts submitted for possible presentation at the AIAA Aerospace Science Meeting to be held in January 2005. Since the submittal of these abstracts we are continuing refinement of the model coefficients derived for the case of a variable Turbulent Prandtl number. The test cases being investigated are a Mach 9.2 flow over a degree ramp and a Mach 8.2 3-D calculation of crossing shocks. We have developed an axisymmetric code for treating axisymmetric flows. In addition the variable Schmidt number formulation was incorporated in the code and we are in the process of determining the model constants.

  5. The Properties of Model Selection when Retaining Theory Variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendry, David F.; Johansen, Søren

    Economic theories are often fitted directly to data to avoid possible model selection biases. We show that embedding a theory model that specifies the correct set of m relevant exogenous variables, x{t}, within the larger set of m+k candidate variables, (x{t},w{t}), then selection over the second...... set by their statistical significance can be undertaken without affecting the estimator distribution of the theory parameters. This strategy returns the theory-parameter estimates when the theory is correct, yet protects against the theory being under-specified because some w{t} are relevant....

  6. Response of subassembly model with internals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, J.M.; Belytschko, T.

    1977-01-01

    Analytical tools have been developed and validated by controlled sets of experiments to understand the response of an accident and/or single subassembly in an LMFBR reasonably well. They have been subjected to a variety of loadings and boundary environments. Some large subassembly cluster experiments have been performed, however little analytical work has accompanied them because of the lack of suitable analytical tools. Reported are analytical approaches to: (1) development of more sophisiticated models for the subassembly internals, that is, the fuel pins and coolant; (2) development of models for representing three dimensional effects in subassemblies adjacent to the accident subassembly. These analytical developments will provide feasible capabilities for doing economical three-dimensional analysis not previously available

  7. Response of subassembly model with internals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kennedy, J.M.; Belytschko, T.

    1977-01-01

    For the purpose of predicting the structural response in such accident environments, a program STRAW has been developed. This is a finite element program which can treat the structure-fluid system consisting of the coolant and the subassembly walls. Both material nonlinearities due to elastic-plastic response and geometric nonlinearities due to large displacements can be treated. The energy source can be represented either by a pressure-time history or an equation of state. Because of the lack of any simplifying symmetry in the geometry of the subassembly the program uses a quasi-three dimensional model. The cross section of the accident hexcan and the adjacent hexcan are modelled by a two-dimensional finite element mesh which represents the hexcan walls by flexural element and the internals by two-dimensional continuum elements. This mesh is coupled to a series of one-dimensional elements which represent the axial flow of the coolant and the longitudinal stiffness of the fuel pins and hexcan. The latter is of importance in the adjacent hexcan, for its lateral displacement is resisted entirely by this flexural behavior and its inertia. The adequacy of such quasi-three dimensional models has been examined by comparing the STRAW results against almost complete three-dimensonal analysis performed with the REXCAT program. In this program, the accident hexcan is represented in a true three-dimensional sense by plate-shell elements, whereas the internals are represented as axisymmetric. These comparisons indicate that the quasi-three-dimensional approach employed in STRAW is valid for a large range of pressure time histories; the fidelity of this model suffers primarily when pressure reaches a peak over a very short time, such as 5-10 microseconds

  8. Modelling Inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries with Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dondeynaz, C.; Lopez-Puga, J.; Carmona-Moreno, C.

    2012-04-01

    Improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS), being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation). This inter-dependency has been recognised with the adoption of the "Integrated Water Resources Management" principles that push for the integration of these various dimensions involved in WSS delivery to ensure an efficient and sustainable management. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector in particular in developing countries where WSS still represent an important leverage for livelihood improvement. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has developed a coherent database (WatSan4Dev database) containing 29 indicators from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data focusing on developing countries (Celine et al, 2011 under publication). The aim of this work is to model the WatSan4Dev dataset using probabilistic models to identify the key variables influencing or being influenced by the water supply and sanitation access levels. Bayesian Network Models are suitable to map the conditional dependencies between variables and also allows ordering variables by level of influence on the dependent variable. Separated models have been built for water supply and for sanitation because of different behaviour. The models are validated if complying with statistical criteria but either with scientific knowledge and literature. A two steps approach has been adopted to build the structure of the model; Bayesian network is first built for each thematic cluster of variables (e.g governance, agricultural pressure, or human development) keeping a detailed level for interpretation later one. A global model is then built based on significant indicators of each cluster being previously modelled. The structure of the

  9. Ocean carbon and heat variability in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, J. L.; Waugh, D.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    Ocean carbon and heat content are very important for regulating global climate. Furthermore, due to lack of observations and dependence on parameterizations, there has been little consensus in the modeling community on the magnitude of realistic ocean carbon and heat content variability, particularly in the Southern Ocean. We assess the differences between global oceanic heat and carbon content variability in GFDL ESM2Mc using a 500-year, pre-industrial control simulation. The global carbon and heat content are directly out of phase with each other; however, in the Southern Ocean the heat and carbon content are in phase. The global heat mutli-decadal variability is primarily explained by variability in the tropics and mid-latitudes, while the variability in global carbon content is primarily explained by Southern Ocean variability. In order to test the robustness of this relationship, we use three additional pre-industrial control simulations using different mesoscale mixing parameterizations. Three pre-industrial control simulations are conducted with the along-isopycnal diffusion coefficient (Aredi) set to constant values of 400, 800 (control) and 2400 m2 s-1. These values for Aredi are within the range of parameter settings commonly used in modeling groups. Finally, one pre-industrial control simulation is conducted where the minimum in the Gent-McWilliams parameterization closure scheme (AGM) increased to 600 m2 s-1. We find that the different simulations have very different multi-decadal variability, especially in the Weddell Sea where the characteristics of deep convection are drastically changed. While the temporal frequency and amplitude global heat and carbon content changes significantly, the overall spatial pattern of variability remains unchanged between the simulations.

  10. Motor skills in kindergarten: Internal structure, cognitive correlates and relationships to background variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberer, Nicole; Gashaj, Venera; Roebers, Claudia M

    2017-04-01

    The present study aimed to contribute to the discussion about the relation between motor coordination and executive functions in preschool children. Specifically, the relation between gross and fine motor skills and executive functions as well as the relation to possible background variables (SES, physical activity) were investigated. Based on the data of N=156 kindergarten children the internal structure of motor skills was investigated and confirmed the theoretically assumed subdivision of gross and fine motor skills. Both, gross and fine motor skills correlated significantly with executive functions, whereas the background variables seemed to have no significant impact on the executive functions and motor skills. Higher order control processes are discussed as an explanation of the relation between executive functions and motor skills. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The Selection, Use, and Reporting of Control Variables in International Business Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Raswant, Arpit

    2018-01-01

    This study explores the selection, use, and reporting of control variables in studies published in the leading international business (IB) research journals. We review a sample of 246 empirical studies published in the top five IB journals over the period 2012–2015 with particular emphasis...... on selection, use, and reporting of controls. Approximately 83% of studies included only half of what we consider Minimum Standard of Practice with regards to controls, whereas only 38% of the studies met the 75% threshold. We provide recommendations on how to effectively identify, use and report controls...

  12. Single cell adhesion strength assessed with variable-angle total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelina Cardoso Dos Santos

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new strategy to evaluate adhesion strength at the single cell level. This approach involves variable-angle total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy to monitor in real time the topography of cell membranes, i.e. a map of the membrane/substrate separation distance. According to the Boltzmann distribution, both potential energy profile and dissociation energy related to the interactions between the cell membrane and the substrate were determined from the membrane topography. We have highlighted on glass substrates coated with poly-L-lysine and fibronectin, that the dissociation energy is a reliable parameter to quantify the adhesion strength of MDA-MB-231 motile cells.

  13. Classification criteria of syndromes by latent variable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Janne

    2010-01-01

    patient's characteristics. These methods may erroneously reduce multiplicity either by combining markers of different phenotypes or by mixing HALS with other processes such as aging. Latent class models identify homogenous groups of patients based on sets of variables, for example symptoms. As no gold......The thesis has two parts; one clinical part: studying the dimensions of human immunodeficiency virus associated lipodystrophy syndrome (HALS) by latent class models, and a more statistical part: investigating how to predict scores of latent variables so these can be used in subsequent regression...... standard exists for diagnosing HALS the normally applied diagnostic models cannot be used. Latent class models, which have never before been used to diagnose HALS, make it possible, under certain assumptions, to: statistically evaluate the number of phenotypes, test for mixing of HALS with other processes...

  14. Establishing an International Soil Modelling Consortium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vereecken, Harry; Schnepf, Andrea; Vanderborght, Jan

    2015-04-01

    -change-feedback processes, bridge basic soil science research and management, and facilitate the communication between science and society . To meet these challenges an international community effort is required, similar to initiatives in systems biology, hydrology, and climate and crop research. We therefore propose to establish an international soil modelling consortium with the aims of 1) bringing together leading experts in modelling soil processes within all major soil disciplines, 2) addressing major scientific gaps in describing key processes and their long term impacts with respect to the different functions and ecosystem services provided by soil, 3) intercomparing soil model performance based on standardized and harmonized data sets, 4) identifying interactions with other relevant platforms related to common data formats, protocols and ontologies, 5) developing new approaches to inverse modelling, calibration, and validation of soil models, 6) integrating soil modelling expertise and state of the art knowledge on soil processes in climate, land surface, ecological, crop and contaminant models, and 7) linking process models with new observation, measurement and data evaluation technologies for mapping and characterizing soil properties across scales. Our consortium will bring together modelers and experimental soil scientists at the forefront of new technologies and approaches to characterize soils. By addressing these aims, the consortium will contribute to improve the role of soil modeling as a knowledge dissemination instrument in addressing key global issues and stimulate the development of translational research activities. This presentation will provide a compelling case for this much-needed effort, with a focus on tangible benefits to the scientific and food security communities.

  15. Automatic Welding Control Using a State Variable Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-06-01

    A-A10 610 NAVEAL POSTGRADUATE SCH4O.M CEAY CA0/ 13/ SAUTOMATIC WELDING CONTROL USING A STATE VARIABLE MODEL.W()JUN 79 W V "my UNCLASSIFIED...taverse Drive Unit // Jbint Path /Fixed Track 34 (servomotor positioning). Additional controls of heave (vertical), roll (angular rotation about the

  16. Viscous cosmological models with a variable cosmological term ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Einstein's field equations for a Friedmann-Lamaitre Robertson-Walker universe filled with a dissipative fluid with a variable cosmological term L described by full Israel-Stewart theory are considered. General solutions to the field equations for the flat case have been obtained. The solution corresponds to the dust free model ...

  17. Appraisal and Reliability of Variable Engagement Model Prediction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The variable engagement model based on the stress - crack opening displacement relationship and, which describes the behaviour of randomly oriented steel fibres composite subjected to uniaxial tension has been evaluated so as to determine the safety indices associated when the fibres are subjected to pullout and with ...

  18. Higher-dimensional cosmological model with variable gravitational ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    variable G and bulk viscosity in Lyra geometry. Exact solutions for ... a comparative study of Robertson–Walker models with a constant deceleration .... where H is defined as H =(˙A/A)+(1/3)( ˙B/B) and β0,H0 are representing present values of β ...

  19. Modeling internal ballistics of gas combustion guns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorge, Volker; Grossjohann, Rico; Schönekess, Holger C; Herbst, Jörg; Bockholdt, Britta; Ekkernkamp, Axel; Frank, Matthias

    2016-05-01

    Potato guns are popular homemade guns which work on the principle of gas combustion. They are usually constructed for recreational rather than criminal purposes. Yet some serious injuries and fatalities due to these guns are reported. As information on the internal ballistics of homemade gas combustion-powered guns is scarce, it is the aim of this work to provide an experimental model of the internal ballistics of these devices and to investigate their basic physical parameters. A gas combustion gun was constructed with a steel tube as the main component. Gas/air mixtures of acetylene, hydrogen, and ethylene were used as propellants for discharging a 46-mm caliber test projectile. Gas pressure in the combustion chamber was captured with a piezoelectric pressure sensor. Projectile velocity was measured with a ballistic speed measurement system. The maximum gas pressure, the maximum rate of pressure rise, the time parameters of the pressure curve, and the velocity and path of the projectile through the barrel as a function of time were determined according to the pressure-time curve. The maximum gas pressure was measured to be between 1.4 bar (ethylene) and 4.5 bar (acetylene). The highest maximum rate of pressure rise was determined for hydrogen at (dp/dt)max = 607 bar/s. The muzzle energy was calculated to be between 67 J (ethylene) and 204 J (acetylene). To conclude, this work provides basic information on the internal ballistics of homemade gas combustion guns. The risk of injury to the operator or bystanders is high, because accidental explosions of the gun due to the high-pressure rise during combustion of the gas/air mixture may occur.

  20. Non-linear Heart Rate Variability as a Discriminator of Internalizing Psychopathology and Negative Affect in Children With Internalizing Problems and Healthy Controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Fiskum

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Internalizing psychopathology and dysregulated negative affect are characterized by dysregulation in the autonomic nervous system and reduced heart rate variability (HRV due to increases in sympathetic activity alongside reduced vagal tone. The neurovisceral system is however, a complex nonlinear system, and nonlinear indices related to psychopathology are so far less studied in children. Essential nonlinear properties of a system can be found in two main domains: the informational domain and the invariant domain. sample entropy (SampEn is a much-used method from the informational domain, while detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA represents a widely-used method from the invariant domain. To see if nonlinear HRV can provide information beyond linear indices of autonomic activation, this study investigated SampEn and DFA as discriminators of internalizing psychopathology and negative affect alongside measures of vagally-mediated HRV and sympathetic activation.Material and Methods: Thirty-Two children with internalizing difficulties and 25 healthy controls (aged 9–13 were assessed with the Child Behavior Checklist and the Early Adolescent Temperament Questionnaire, Revised, giving an estimate of internalizing psychopathology, negative affect and effortful control, a protective factor against psychopathology. Five minute electrocardiogram and impedance cardiography recordings were collected during a resting baseline, giving estimates of SampEn, DFA short-term scaling exponent α1, root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD, and pre-ejection period (PEP. Between-group differences and correlations were assessed with parametric and non-parametric tests, and the relationships between cardiac variables, psychopathology and negative affect were assessed using generalized linear modeling.Results: SampEn and DFA were not significantly different between the groups. SampEn was weakly negatively related to heart rate (HR in the controls

  1. Modeling international trends in energy efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, David I.

    2012-01-01

    I use a stochastic production frontier to model energy efficiency trends in 85 countries over a 37-year period. Differences in energy efficiency across countries are modeled as a stochastic function of explanatory variables and I estimate the model using the cross-section of time-averaged data, so that no structure is imposed on technological change over time. Energy efficiency is measured using a new energy distance function approach. The country using the least energy per unit output, given its mix of outputs and inputs, defines the global production frontier. A country's relative energy efficiency is given by its distance from the frontier—the ratio of its actual energy use to the minimum required energy use, ceteris paribus. Energy efficiency is higher in countries with, inter alia, higher total factor productivity, undervalued currencies, and smaller fossil fuel reserves and it converges over time across countries. Globally, technological change was the most important factor counteracting the energy-use and carbon-emissions increasing effects of economic growth.

  2. Changes in Southern Hemisphere circulation variability in climate change modelling experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grainger, Simon; Frederiksen, Carsten; Zheng, Xiaogu

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The seasonal mean of a climate variable can be considered as a statistical random variable, consisting of a signal and noise components (Madden 1976). The noise component consists of internal intraseasonal variability, and is not predictable on time-scales of a season or more ahead. The signal consists of slowly varying external and internal variability, and is potentially predictable on seasonal time-scales. The method of Zheng and Frederiksen (2004) has been applied to monthly time series of 500hPa Geopotential height from models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) experiment to obtain covariance matrices of the intraseasonal and slow components of covariability for summer and winter. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of the intraseasonal and slow covariance matrices for the second half of the 20th century are compared with those observed by Frederiksen and Zheng (2007). The leading EOF in summer and winter for both the intraseasonal and slow components of covariability is the Southern Annular Mode (see, e.g. Kiladis and Mo 1998). This is generally reproduced by the CMIP3 models, although with different variance amounts. The observed secondary intraseasonal covariability modes of wave 4 patterns in summer and wave 3 or blocking in winter are also generally seen in the models, although the actual spatial pattern is different. For the slow covariabilty, the models are less successful in reproducing the two observed ENSO modes, with generally only one of them being represented among the leading EOFs. However, most models reproduce the observed South Pacific wave pattern. The intraseasonal and slow covariances matrices of 500hPa geopotential height under three climate change scenarios are also analysed and compared with those found for the second half of the 20th century. Through aggregating the results from a number of CMIP3 models, a consensus estimate of the changes in Southern Hemisphere variability, and their

  3. Analysis models for variables associated with breastfeeding duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Theodoro dos S. Neto

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE To analyze the factors associated with breastfeeding duration by two statistical models. METHODS A population-based cohort study was conducted with 86 mothers and newborns from two areas primary covered by the National Health System, with high rates of infant mortality in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. During 30 months, 67 (78% children and mothers were visited seven times at home by trained interviewers, who filled out survey forms. Data on food and sucking habits, socioeconomic and maternal characteristics were collected. Variables were analyzed by Cox regression models, considering duration of breastfeeding as the dependent variable, and logistic regression (dependent variables, was the presence of a breastfeeding child in different post-natal ages. RESULTS In the logistic regression model, the pacifier sucking (adjusted Odds Ratio: 3.4; 95%CI 1.2-9.55 and bottle feeding (adjusted Odds Ratio: 4.4; 95%CI 1.6-12.1 increased the chance of weaning a child before one year of age. Variables associated to breastfeeding duration in the Cox regression model were: pacifier sucking (adjusted Hazard Ratio 2.0; 95%CI 1.2-3.3 and bottle feeding (adjusted Hazard Ratio 2.0; 95%CI 1.2-3.5. However, protective factors (maternal age and family income differed between both models. CONCLUSIONS Risk and protective factors associated with cessation of breastfeeding may be analyzed by different models of statistical regression. Cox Regression Models are adequate to analyze such factors in longitudinal studies.

  4. Two-step variable selection in quantile regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FAN Yali

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose a two-step variable selection procedure for high dimensional quantile regressions, in which the dimension of the covariates, pn is much larger than the sample size n. In the first step, we perform ℓ1 penalty, and we demonstrate that the first step penalized estimator with the LASSO penalty can reduce the model from an ultra-high dimensional to a model whose size has the same order as that of the true model, and the selected model can cover the true model. The second step excludes the remained irrelevant covariates by applying the adaptive LASSO penalty to the reduced model obtained from the first step. Under some regularity conditions, we show that our procedure enjoys the model selection consistency. We conduct a simulation study and a real data analysis to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed approach.

  5. Design strategies for the International Space University's variable gravity research facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Sheila G.; Chiaramonte, Francis P.; Davidian, Kenneth J.

    1990-01-01

    A variable gravity research facility named 'Newton' was designed by 58 students from 13 countries at the International Space University's 1989 summer session at the Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourge, France. The project was comprehensive in scope, including a political and legal foundation for international cooperation, development and financing; technical, science and engineering issues; architectural design; plausible schedules; and operations, crew issues and maintenance. Since log-term exposure to zero gravity is known to be harmful to the human body, the main goal was to design a unique variable gravity research facility which would find a practical solution to this problem, permitting a manned mission to Mars. The facility would not duplicate other space-based facilities and would provide the flexibility for examining a number of gravity levels, including lunar and Martian gravities. Major design alternatives included a truss versus a tether based system which also involved the question of docking while spinning or despinning to dock. These design issues are described. The relative advantages or disadvantages are discussed, including comments on the necessary research and technology development required for each.

  6. Ensembling Variable Selectors by Stability Selection for the Cox Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Yan Yin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available As a pivotal tool to build interpretive models, variable selection plays an increasingly important role in high-dimensional data analysis. In recent years, variable selection ensembles (VSEs have gained much interest due to their many advantages. Stability selection (Meinshausen and Bühlmann, 2010, a VSE technique based on subsampling in combination with a base algorithm like lasso, is an effective method to control false discovery rate (FDR and to improve selection accuracy in linear regression models. By adopting lasso as a base learner, we attempt to extend stability selection to handle variable selection problems in a Cox model. According to our experience, it is crucial to set the regularization region Λ in lasso and the parameter λmin properly so that stability selection can work well. To the best of our knowledge, however, there is no literature addressing this problem in an explicit way. Therefore, we first provide a detailed procedure to specify Λ and λmin. Then, some simulated and real-world data with various censoring rates are used to examine how well stability selection performs. It is also compared with several other variable selection approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that it achieves better or competitive performance in comparison with several other popular techniques.

  7. ZMOTTO- MODELING THE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeleznik, F. J.

    1994-01-01

    The ZMOTTO program was developed to model mathematically a spark-ignited internal combustion engine. ZMOTTO is a large, general purpose program whose calculations can be established at five levels of sophistication. These five models range from an ideal cycle requiring only thermodynamic properties, to a very complex representation demanding full combustion kinetics, transport properties, and poppet valve flow characteristics. ZMOTTO is a flexible and computationally economical program based on a system of ordinary differential equations for cylinder-averaged properties. The calculations assume that heat transfer is expressed in terms of a heat transfer coefficient and that the cylinder average of kinetic plus potential energies remains constant. During combustion, the pressures of burned and unburned gases are assumed equal and their heat transfer areas are assumed proportional to their respective mass fractions. Even the simplest ZMOTTO model provides for residual gas effects, spark advance, exhaust gas recirculation, supercharging, and throttling. In the more complex models, 1) finite rate chemistry replaces equilibrium chemistry in descriptions of both the flame and the burned gases, 2) poppet valve formulas represent fluid flow instead of a zero pressure drop flow, and 3) flame propagation is modeled by mass burning equations instead of as an instantaneous process. Input to ZMOTTO is determined by the model chosen. Thermodynamic data is required for all models. Transport properties and chemical kinetics data are required only as the model complexity grows. Other input includes engine geometry, working fluid composition, operating characteristics, and intake/exhaust data. ZMOTTO accommodates a broad spectrum of reactants. The program will calculate many Otto cycle performance parameters for a number of consecutive cycles (a cycle being an interval of 720 crankangle degrees). A typical case will have a number of initial ideal cycles and progress through levels

  8. Evaluating two model reduction approaches for large scale hedonic models sensitive to omitted variables and multicollinearity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    Hedonic models in environmental valuation studies have grown in terms of number of transactions and number of explanatory variables. We focus on the practical challenge of model reduction, when aiming for reliable parsimonious models, sensitive to omitted variable bias and multicollinearity. We...

  9. Environmental versus demographic variability in stochastic predator–prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobramysl, U; Täuber, U C

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka–Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator–prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Our previous study showed that population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization. (paper)

  10. Two-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity Land Surface Representation for General Circulation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, L.

    1994-01-01

    A simple two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) land surface model suitable for incorporation in general circulation models (GCMs) is described. The model consists of a two-layer characterization of the soil within a GCM grid cell, and uses an aerodynamic representation of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The effects of GCM spatial subgrid variability of soil moisture and a hydrologically realistic runoff mechanism are represented in the soil layers. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatalogical data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters. Surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiments (FIFE) intensive field compaigns in the summer and fall of 1987 in central Kansas, and from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) in Brazil were used to validate the mode-simulated surface energy fluxes and surface temperature.

  11. Pre-quantum mechanics. Introduction to models with hidden variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grea, J.

    1976-01-01

    Within the context of formalism of hidden variable type, the author considers the models used to describe mechanical systems before the introduction of the quantum model. An account is given of the characteristics of the theoretical models and their relationships with experimental methodology. The models of analytical, pre-ergodic, stochastic and thermodynamic mechanics are studied in succession. At each stage the physical hypothesis is enunciated by postulate corresponding to the type of description of the reality of the model. Starting from this postulate, the physical propositions which are meaningful for the model under consideration are defined and their logical structure is indicated. It is then found that on passing from one level of description to another, one can obtain successively Boolean lattices embedded in lattices of continuous geometric type, which are themselves embedded in Boolean lattices. It is therefore possible to envisage a more detailed description than that given by the quantum lattice and to construct it by analogy. (Auth.)

  12. The practical engineer-fine-tuning memory macros using variable internal delays

    CERN Document Server

    Gray, K

    1999-01-01

    Embedded memory blocks are extremely common in application-specific IC (ASIC) chips. In this era of design reuse, it is critical that these memory macros, as they are also called, should be as versatile as possible. Their $9 performance should be optimal, with adequate sense amplifier signal over the full manufacturing process range of the chip. Fortunately, several simple techniques exist for adapting memory macros to different applications running at $9 different speeds. The key is to design in delays that are variable and/or programmable. The approach is also helpful in debugging initial hardware where a memory macro is refusing to function because its timing is too fast and there $9 is insufficient internal delay for proper circuit operation. The techniques can also eliminate the process of redesigning and refabricating the initial hardware just to characterize it. A memory macro is made to function by internal $9 pulses, generated in the correct number, sequence and relationship by the internal timing ch...

  13. An Atmospheric Variability Model for Venus Aerobraking Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolson, Robert T.; Prince, Jill L. H.; Konopliv, Alexander A.

    2013-01-01

    Aerobraking has proven to be an enabling technology for planetary missions to Mars and has been proposed to enable low cost missions to Venus. Aerobraking saves a significant amount of propulsion fuel mass by exploiting atmospheric drag to reduce the eccentricity of the initial orbit. The solar arrays have been used as the primary drag surface and only minor modifications have been made in the vehicle design to accommodate the relatively modest aerothermal loads. However, if atmospheric density is highly variable from orbit to orbit, the mission must either accept higher aerothermal risk, a slower pace for aerobraking, or a tighter corridor likely with increased propulsive cost. Hence, knowledge of atmospheric variability is of great interest for the design of aerobraking missions. The first planetary aerobraking was at Venus during the Magellan mission. After the primary Magellan science mission was completed, aerobraking was used to provide a more circular orbit to enhance gravity field recovery. Magellan aerobraking took place between local solar times of 1100 and 1800 hrs, and it was found that the Venusian atmospheric density during the aerobraking phase had less than 10% 1 sigma orbit to orbit variability. On the other hand, at some latitudes and seasons, Martian variability can be as high as 40% 1 sigmaFrom both the MGN and PVO mission it was known that the atmosphere, above aerobraking altitudes, showed greater variability at night, but this variability was never quantified in a systematic manner. This paper proposes a model for atmospheric variability that can be used for aerobraking mission design until more complete data sets become available.

  14. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers.

  15. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers. 

  16. Using an Altimeter-Derived Internal Tide Model to Remove Tides from in Situ Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaron, Edward D.; Ray, Richard D.

    2017-01-01

    Internal waves at tidal frequencies, i.e., the internal tides, are a prominent source of variability in the ocean associated with significant vertical isopycnal displacements and currents. Because the isopycnal displacements are caused by ageostrophic dynamics, they contribute uncertainty to geostrophic transport inferred from vertical profiles in the ocean. Here it is demonstrated that a newly developed model of the main semidiurnal (M2) internal tide derived from satellite altimetry may be used to partially remove the tide from vertical profile data, as measured by the reduction of steric height variance inferred from the profiles. It is further demonstrated that the internal tide model can account for a component of the near-surface velocity as measured by drogued drifters. These comparisons represent a validation of the internal tide model using independent data and highlight its potential use in removing internal tide signals from in situ observations.

  17. Multiscale thermohydrologic model: addressing variability and uncertainty at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buscheck, T; Rosenberg, N D; Gansemer, J D; Sun, Y

    2000-01-01

    Performance assessment and design evaluation require a modeling tool that simultaneously accounts for processes occurring at a scale of a few tens of centimeters around individual waste packages and emplacement drifts, and also on behavior at the scale of the mountain. Many processes and features must be considered, including non-isothermal, multiphase-flow in rock of variable saturation and thermal radiation in open cavities. Also, given the nature of the fractured rock at Yucca Mountain, a dual-permeability approach is needed to represent permeability. A monolithic numerical model with all these features requires too large a computational cost to be an effective simulation tool, one that is used to examine sensitivity to key model assumptions and parameters. We have developed a multi-scale modeling approach that effectively simulates 3D discrete-heat-source, mountain-scale thermohydrologic behavior at Yucca Mountain and captures the natural variability of the site consistent with what we know from site characterization and waste-package-to-waste-package variability in heat output. We describe this approach and present results examining the role of infiltration flux, the most important natural-system parameter with respect to how thermohydrologic behavior influences the performance of the repository

  18. The International Reference Ionosphere: Model Update 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilitza, Dieter; Altadill, David; Reinisch, Bodo; Galkin, Ivan; Shubin, Valentin; Truhlik, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) is recognized as the official standard for the ionosphere (COSPAR, URSI, ISO) and is widely used for a multitude of different applications as evidenced by the many papers in science and engineering journals that acknowledge the use of IRI (e.g., about 11% of all Radio Science papers each year). One of the shortcomings of the model has been the dependence of the F2 peak height modeling on the propagation factor M(3000)F2. With the 2016 version of IRI, two new models will be introduced for hmF2 that were developed directly based on hmF2 measurements by ionosondes [Altadill et al., 2013] and by COSMIC radio occultation [Shubin, 2015], respectively. In addition IRI-2016 will include an improved representation of the ionosphere during the very low solar activities that were reached during the last solar minimum in 2008/2009. This presentation will review these and other improvements that are being implemented with the 2016 version of the IRI model. We will also discuss recent IRI workshops and their findings and results. One of the most exciting new projects is the development of the Real-Time IRI [Galkin et al., 2012]. We will discuss the current status and plans for the future. Altadill, D., S. Magdaleno, J.M. Torta, E. Blanch (2013), Global empirical models of the density peak height and of the equivalent scale height for quiet conditions, Advances in Space Research 52, 1756-1769, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2012.11.018. Galkin, I.A., B.W. Reinisch, X. Huang, and D. Bilitza (2012), Assimilation of GIRO Data into a Real-Time IRI, Radio Science, 47, RS0L07, doi:10.1029/2011RS004952. Shubin V.N. (2015), Global median model of the F2-layer peak height based on ionospheric radio-occultation and ground-based Digisonde observations, Advances in Space Research 56, 916-928, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2015.05.029.

  19. Testing and analysis of internal hardwood log defect prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Edward Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The severity and location of internal defects determine the quality and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. Models have been developed to predict the size and position of internal defects based on external defect indicator measurements. These models were shown to predict approximately 80% of all internal knots based on external knot indicators. However, the size...

  20. Explicit estimating equations for semiparametric generalized linear latent variable models

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2010-07-05

    We study generalized linear latent variable models without requiring a distributional assumption of the latent variables. Using a geometric approach, we derive consistent semiparametric estimators. We demonstrate that these models have a property which is similar to that of a sufficient complete statistic, which enables us to simplify the estimating procedure and explicitly to formulate the semiparametric estimating equations. We further show that the explicit estimators have the usual root n consistency and asymptotic normality. We explain the computational implementation of our method and illustrate the numerical performance of the estimators in finite sample situations via extensive simulation studies. The advantage of our estimators over the existing likelihood approach is also shown via numerical comparison. We employ the method to analyse a real data example from economics. © 2010 Royal Statistical Society.

  1. Speech-discrimination scores modeled as a binomial variable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, A R; Raffin, M J

    1978-09-01

    Many studies have reported variability data for tests of speech discrimination, and the disparate results of these studies have not been given a simple explanation. Arguments over the relative merits of 25- vs 50-word tests have ignored the basic mathematical properties inherent in the use of percentage scores. The present study models performance on clinical tests of speech discrimination as a binomial variable. A binomial model was developed, and some of its characteristics were tested against data from 4120 scores obtained on the CID Auditory Test W-22. A table for determining significant deviations between scores was generated and compared to observed differences in half-list scores for the W-22 tests. Good agreement was found between predicted and observed values. Implications of the binomial characteristics of speech-discrimination scores are discussed.

  2. Efficient family-based model checking via variability abstractions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimovski, Aleksandar; Al-Sibahi, Ahmad Salim; Brabrand, Claus

    2016-01-01

    with the abstract model checking of the concrete high-level variational model. This allows the use of Spin with all its accumulated optimizations for efficient verification of variational models without any knowledge about variability. We have implemented the transformations in a prototype tool, and we illustrate......Many software systems are variational: they can be configured to meet diverse sets of requirements. They can produce a (potentially huge) number of related systems, known as products or variants, by systematically reusing common parts. For variational models (variational systems or families...... of related systems), specialized family-based model checking algorithms allow efficient verification of multiple variants, simultaneously, in a single run. These algorithms, implemented in a tool Snip, scale much better than ``the brute force'' approach, where all individual systems are verified using...

  3. Predictive modeling and reducing cyclic variability in autoignition engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob

    2016-08-30

    Methods and systems are provided for controlling a vehicle engine to reduce cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. A predictive model is applied to predict cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior of an engine based on observed engine performance variables. Conditions are identified, based on the predicted cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior, that indicate high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. Corrective measures are then applied to prevent the predicted high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation.

  4. Internal Stress in a Model Elasto-Plastic Fluid

    OpenAIRE

    Ooshida, Takeshi; Sekimoto, Ken

    2004-01-01

    Plastic materials can carry memory of past mechanical treatment in the form of internal stress. We introduce a natural definition of the vorticity of internal stress in a simple two-dimensional model of elasto-plastic fluids, which generates the internal stress. We demonstrate how the internal stress is induced under external loading, and how the presence of the internal stress modifies the plastic behavior.

  5. Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

    1999-05-01

    Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

  6. A Variable Flow Modelling Approach To Military End Strength Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    function. The MLRPS is more complex than the variable flow model as it has to cater for a force structure that is much larger than just the MT branch...essential positions in a Ship’s complement, or by the biggest current deficit in forecast end strength. The model can be adjusted to cater for any of these...is unlikely that the RAN will be able to cater for such an increase in hires, so this scenario is not likely to solve their problem. Each transition

  7. Variable sound speed in interacting dark energy models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linton, Mark S.; Pourtsidou, Alkistis; Crittenden, Robert; Maartens, Roy

    2018-04-01

    We consider a self-consistent and physical approach to interacting dark energy models described by a Lagrangian, and identify a new class of models with variable dark energy sound speed. We show that if the interaction between dark energy in the form of quintessence and cold dark matter is purely momentum exchange this generally leads to a dark energy sound speed that deviates from unity. Choosing a specific sub-case, we study its phenomenology by investigating the effects of the interaction on the cosmic microwave background and linear matter power spectrum. We also perform a global fitting of cosmological parameters using CMB data, and compare our findings to ΛCDM.

  8. Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of a Supersonic Nozzle and Integration into a Variable Cycle Engine Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Joseph W.; Friedlander, David; Kopasakis, George

    2015-01-01

    This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic simulation for a variable cycle turbofan engine and nozzle that can be integrated with an overall vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) model. A previously developed variable cycle turbofan engine model is used for this study and is enhanced here to include variable guide vanes allowing for operation across the supersonic flight regime. The primary focus of this study is to improve the fidelity of the model's thrust response by replacing the simple choked flow equation convergent-divergent nozzle model with a MacCormack method based quasi-1D model. The dynamic response of the nozzle model using the MacCormack method is verified by comparing it against a model of the nozzle using the conservation element/solution element method. A methodology is also presented for the integration of the MacCormack nozzle model with the variable cycle engine.

  9. Macroeconomic Variables, International Islamic Indices, and The Return Volatility in Jakarta Islamic Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoghi Citra Pratama

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available According to understand the behavior of Islamic equity markets the primary objective of this research is to analyze the effect of macroeconomic indicators and International Islamic Index on return volatility of Jakarta Islamic Index. The analysis method used in this study is AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic-Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH-GARCH. The result of this research showed that all variables, i.e., BI rate, inflation rate, IDR-USD exchange rate, DJIUS index, DJIUK index, FTSJP index and FTSMY index have a simultaneously significant impact on return volatility of JII. While t-test results show that BI rate, IDR-USD exchange rate, DJIUK index and FTSMY index have a substantial effect on return volatility of JII.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v10i1.5550

  10. Quantifying intrinsic and extrinsic variability in stochastic gene expression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Abhyudai; Soltani, Mohammad

    2013-01-01

    Genetically identical cell populations exhibit considerable intercellular variation in the level of a given protein or mRNA. Both intrinsic and extrinsic sources of noise drive this variability in gene expression. More specifically, extrinsic noise is the expression variability that arises from cell-to-cell differences in cell-specific factors such as enzyme levels, cell size and cell cycle stage. In contrast, intrinsic noise is the expression variability that is not accounted for by extrinsic noise, and typically arises from the inherent stochastic nature of biochemical processes. Two-color reporter experiments are employed to decompose expression variability into its intrinsic and extrinsic noise components. Analytical formulas for intrinsic and extrinsic noise are derived for a class of stochastic gene expression models, where variations in cell-specific factors cause fluctuations in model parameters, in particular, transcription and/or translation rate fluctuations. Assuming mRNA production occurs in random bursts, transcription rate is represented by either the burst frequency (how often the bursts occur) or the burst size (number of mRNAs produced in each burst). Our analysis shows that fluctuations in the transcription burst frequency enhance extrinsic noise but do not affect the intrinsic noise. On the contrary, fluctuations in the transcription burst size or mRNA translation rate dramatically increase both intrinsic and extrinsic noise components. Interestingly, simultaneous fluctuations in transcription and translation rates arising from randomness in ATP abundance can decrease intrinsic noise measured in a two-color reporter assay. Finally, we discuss how these formulas can be combined with single-cell gene expression data from two-color reporter experiments for estimating model parameters.

  11. Adding thin-ideal internalization and impulsiveness to the cognitive-behavioral model of bulimic symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnitzler, Caroline E; von Ranson, Kristin M; Wallace, Laurel M

    2012-08-01

    This study evaluated the cognitive-behavioral (CB) model of bulimia nervosa and an extension that included two additional maintaining factors - thin-ideal internalization and impulsiveness - in 327 undergraduate women. Participants completed measures of demographics, self-esteem, concern about shape and weight, dieting, bulimic symptoms, thin-ideal internalization, and impulsiveness. Both the original CB model and the extended model provided good fits to the data. Although structural equation modeling analyses suggested that the original CB model was most parsimonious, hierarchical regression analyses indicated that the additional variables accounted for significantly more variance. Additional analyses showed that the model fit could be improved by adding a path from concern about shape and weight, and deleting the path from dieting, to bulimic symptoms. Expanding upon the factors considered in the model may better capture the scope of variables maintaining bulimic symptoms in young women with a range of severity of bulimic symptoms. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Investigation of a rotary valving system with variable valve timing for internal combustion engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Paul C.; Hansen, Craig N.

    1994-11-01

    The objective of the program was to provide a functional demonstration of the Hansen Rotary Valving System with Variable Valve Timing (HRVS/VVT), capable of throttleless inlet charge control, as an alternative to conventional poppet-valves for use in spark ignited internal combustion engines. The goal of this new technology is to secure benefits in fuel economy, broadened torque band, vibration reduction, and overhaul accessibility. Additionally, use of the variable valve timing capability to vary the effective compression ratio is expected to improve multifuel tolerance and efficiency. Efforts directed at the design of HRVS components proved to be far more extensive than had been anticipated, ultimately requiring that proof-trial design/development work be performed. Although both time and funds were exhausted before optical or ion-probe types of in-cylinder investigation could be undertaken, a great deal of laboratory data was acquired during the course of the design/development work. This laboratory data is the basis for the information presented in this final report.

  13. Winter variability in the western Gulf of Maine: Part 1: Internal tides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W. S.

    2011-09-01

    During the winter 1997-1998, a field program was conducted in Wilkinson Basin-western Gulf of Maine-as part of a study of winter convective mixing. The field program consisted of (1) Wilkinson basin-scale hydrographic surveys, (2) a tight three-mooring array with ˜100 m separations measured temperature and conductivity at rates of 2-15 min and (3) a single pair of upward/downward-looking pair acoustic Doppler current profiling (ADCP) instruments measured currents with 8 m vertical resolution over the 270 m water column in north-central Wilkinson basin at a rate of 10 min. The moored array measurements below the mixed layer (˜100 m depth) between 11 January and 6 February 1998 were dominated by a combination of the relatively strong semidiurnal external (depth-independent or barotropic) tide; upon which were superposed a weaker phase-locked semidiurnal internal tide and a very weak water column mean currents of about 1 cm/s southward or approximately across the local isobaths. The harmonic analysis of a vertical average of the relatively uniform ADCP velocities in the well-mixed upper 123 m of the water column, defined the external tidal currents which were dominated by a nearly rectilinear, across-isobath (326°T) M 2 semidiurnal tidal current of about 15 cm/s. The depth-dependent residual current field, which was created by subtracting the external tidal current, consisted of (1) clockwise-rotating semidiurnal internal tidal currents of about 5 cm/s below the mixed layer; (2) clockwise-rotating inertial currents; and (3) a considerably less energetic subtidal current variability. The results from both frequency-domain empirical orthogonal function and tidal harmonic analyses of the of isotherm displacement series at each of the three moorings in the 100 m array mutually confirm an approximate east-northeastward phase propagation of the dominant M 2 semidiurnal internal tide across Wilkinson Basin. Further investigation supports the idea that this winter internal

  14. A Model Program for International Commerce Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funston, Richard

    To address the economy's growing reliance on international business, San Diego State University has recently introduced a program in international commerce. The program was developed by packaging coursework in three existing areas: business administration, language training, and area studies. Although still in its infancy, the international…

  15. Brain signal variability is modulated as a function of internal and external demand in younger and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grady, Cheryl L; Garrett, Douglas D

    2018-04-01

    Variability in the Blood Oxygen-Level Dependent (BOLD) signal from fMRI is often associated with better cognitive performance and younger age. It has been proposed that neural variability enables flexible responding to uncertainty in a changing environment. However, signal variability reflecting environmental uncertainty may reduce to the extent that a task depends on internally-directed attention and is supported by neural "solutions" that are schematic and relatively stable within each individual. Accordingly, we examined the hypothesis that BOLD variability will be low at rest, higher during internally-directed tasks, and higher still during externally-directed tasks, and that this effect will be reduced with aging. Modulation of BOLD variability across conditions was consistent with these hypotheses, and was associated with faster and more stable behavioral performance in both young and older adults. These data support the idea that brain signal variability may modulate in response to environmental uncertainty, which is presumed to be greater in the external environment than in the internal milieu. Reduced flexibility of signal variability with age may indicate less ability to switch between internal and external brain states. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Geochemical Modeling Of F Area Seepage Basin Composition And Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Millings, M.; Denham, M.; Looney, B.

    2012-01-01

    From the 1950s through 1989, the F Area Seepage Basins at the Savannah River Site (SRS) received low level radioactive wastes resulting from processing nuclear materials. Discharges of process wastes to the F Area Seepage Basins followed by subsequent mixing processes within the basins and eventual infiltration into the subsurface resulted in contamination of the underlying vadose zone and downgradient groundwater. For simulating contaminant behavior and subsurface transport, a quantitative understanding of the interrelated discharge-mixing-infiltration system along with the resulting chemistry of fluids entering the subsurface is needed. An example of this need emerged as the F Area Seepage Basins was selected as a key case study demonstration site for the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM) Program. This modeling evaluation explored the importance of the wide variability in bulk wastewater chemistry as it propagated through the basins. The results are intended to generally improve and refine the conceptualization of infiltration of chemical wastes from seepage basins receiving variable waste streams and to specifically support the ASCEM case study model for the F Area Seepage Basins. Specific goals of this work included: (1) develop a technically-based 'charge-balanced' nominal source term chemistry for water infiltrating into the subsurface during basin operations, (2) estimate the nature of short term and long term variability in infiltrating water to support scenario development for uncertainty quantification (i.e., UQ analysis), (3) identify key geochemical factors that control overall basin water chemistry and the projected variability/stability, and (4) link wastewater chemistry to the subsurface based on monitoring well data. Results from this study provide data and understanding that can be used in further modeling efforts of the F Area groundwater plume. As identified in this study, key geochemical factors affecting basin

  17. Modelling the Spatial Isotope Variability of Precipitation in Syria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kattan, Z.; Kattaa, B. [Department of Geology, Atomic Energy Commission of Syria (AECS), Damascus (Syrian Arab Republic)

    2013-07-15

    Attempts were made to model the spatial variability of environmental isotope ({sup 18}O, {sup 2}H and {sup 3}H) compositions of precipitation in syria. Rainfall samples periodically collected on a monthly basis from 16 different stations were used for processing and demonstrating the spatial distributions of these isotopes, together with those of deuterium excess (d) values. Mathematically, the modelling process was based on applying simple polynomial models that take into consideration the effects of major geographic factors (Lon.E., Lat.N., and altitude). The modelling results of spatial distribution of stable isotopes ({sup 18}O and {sup 2}H) were generally good, as shown from the high correlation coefficients (R{sup 2} = 0.7-0.8), calculated between the observed and predicted values. In the case of deuterium excess and tritium distributions, the results were most likely approximates (R{sup 2} = 0.5-0.6). Improving the simulation of spatial isotope variability probably requires the incorporation of other local meteorological factors, such as relative air humidity, precipitation amount and vapour pressure, which are supposed to play an important role in such an arid country. (author)

  18. Seychelles Dome variability in a high resolution ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyadjro, E. S.; Jensen, T.; Richman, J. G.; Shriver, J. F.

    2016-02-01

    The Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR; 5ºS-10ºS, 50ºE-80ºE) in the tropical Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) has been recognized as a region of prominence with regards to climate variability in the Indian Ocean. Convective activities in this region have regional consequences as it affect socio-economic livelihood of the people especially in the countries along the Indian Ocean rim. The SCTR is characterized by a quasi-permanent upwelling that is often associated with thermocline shoaling. This upwelling affects sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We present results on the variability and dynamics of the SCTR as simulated by the 1/12º high resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). It is observed that locally, wind stress affects SST via Ekman pumping of cooler subsurface waters, mixing and anomalous zonal advection. Remotely, wind stress curl in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean generates westward-propagating Rossby waves that impacts the depth of the thermocline which in turn impacts SST variability in the SCTR region. The variability of the contributions of these processes, especially with regard to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are further examined. In a typical positive IOD (PIOD) year, the net vertical velocity in the SCTR is negative year-round as easterlies along the region are intensified leading to a strong positive curl. This vertical velocity is caused mainly by anomalous local Ekman downwelling (with peak during September-November), a direct opposite to the climatology scenario when local Ekman pumping is positive (upwelling favorable) year-round. The anomalous remote contribution to the vertical velocity changes is minimal especially during the developing and peak stages of PIOD events. In a typical negative IOD (NIOD) year, anomalous vertical velocity is positive almost year-round with peaks in May and October. The remote contribution is positive, in contrast to the climatology and most of the PIOD years.

  19. Shared Variable Oriented Parallel Precompiler for SPMD Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1995-01-01

    For the moment,commercial parallel computer systems with distributed memory architecture are usually provided with parallel FORTRAN or parallel C compliers,which are just traditional sequential FORTRAN or C compilers expanded with communication statements.Programmers suffer from writing parallel programs with communication statements. The Shared Variable Oriented Parallel Precompiler (SVOPP) proposed in this paper can automatically generate appropriate communication statements based on shared variables for SPMD(Single Program Multiple Data) computation model and greatly ease the parallel programming with high communication efficiency.The core function of parallel C precompiler has been successfully verified on a transputer-based parallel computer.Its prominent performance shows that SVOPP is probably a break-through in parallel programming technique.

  20. Geospatial models of climatological variables distribution over Colombian territory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron Leguizamon, Alicia

    2003-01-01

    Diverse studies have dealt on the existing relation between the variables temperature about the air and precipitation with the altitude; nevertheless they have been precise analyses or by regions, but no of them has gotten to constitute itself in a tool that reproduces the space distribution, of the temperature or the precipitation, taking into account orography and allowing to obtain from her data on these variables in a certain place. Cradle in the raised relation and from the multi-annual monthly information of the temperature of the air and the precipitation, it was calculated the vertical gradients of temperature and the related the precipitation to the altitude. After it, with base in the data of altitude provided by the DEM, one calculated the values of temperature and precipitation, and those values were interpolated to generate geospatial models monthly

  1. The international radioactive transportation regulations: A model for national regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pope, R.B.; Rawl, R.R.

    1990-06-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material, Safety Series No. 6 (herein after denoted as the ''International Regulations'') serve as the model for the regulations for individual countries and international modal organizations controlling the packaging and transportation of radioactive materials. The purpose of this paper is to outline the background and history of the International Regulations, the general principles behind the requirements of the International Regulations, the structure and general contents of the latest edition of the International Regulations, and the roles of various international bodies in the development and implementation of the International Regulations and the current status of regulatory and supportive document development at both the international and domestic level. This review will provide a basis for users and potential users to better understand the source and application of the International Regulations. 1 tab

  2. Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-07

    The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.

  3. Variable slip wind generator modeling for real-time simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gagnon, R.; Brochu, J.; Turmel, G. [Hydro-Quebec, Varennes, PQ (Canada). IREQ

    2006-07-01

    A model of a wind turbine using a variable slip wound-rotor induction machine was presented. The model was created as part of a library of generic wind generator models intended for wind integration studies. The stator winding of the wind generator was connected directly to the grid and the rotor was driven by the turbine through a drive train. The variable resistors was synthesized by an external resistor in parallel with a diode rectifier. A forced-commutated power electronic device (IGBT) was connected to the wound rotor by slip rings and brushes. Simulations were conducted in a Matlab/Simulink environment using SimPowerSystems blocks to model power systems elements and Simulink blocks to model the turbine, control system and drive train. Detailed descriptions of the turbine, the drive train and the control system were provided. The model's implementation in the simulator was also described. A case study demonstrating the real-time simulation of a wind generator connected at the distribution level of a power system was presented. Results of the case study were then compared with results obtained from the SimPowerSystems off-line simulation. Results showed good agreement between the waveforms, demonstrating the conformity of the real-time and the off-line simulations. The capability of Hypersim for real-time simulation of wind turbines with power electronic converters in a distribution network was demonstrated. It was concluded that hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation of wind turbine controllers for wind integration studies in power systems is now feasible. 5 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  4. Meteorological and small scale internal ecosystem variability characterize the uncertainty of ecosystem level responses to elevated CO2. Insights from the Duke Forest FACE experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalis, A.; Katul, G. G.; Fatichi, S.; Palmroth, S.; Way, D.

    2017-12-01

    One of the open questions in climate change research is the pathway by which elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration impacts the biogeochemical and hydrological cycles at the ecosystem scale. This impact leads to significant changes in long-term carbon stocks and the potential of ecosystems to sequester CO2, partially mitigating anthropogenic emissions. While the significance of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on instantaneous leaf-level processes such as photosynthesis and transpiration is rarely disputed, its integrated effect at the ecosystem level and at long-time scales remains a subject of debate. This debate has taken on some urgency as illustrated by differences arising between ecosystem modelling studies, and data-model comparisons using Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) sites around the world. Inherent leaf-to-leaf variability in gas exchange rates can generate such inconsistencies. This inherent variability arises from the combined effect of meteorological "temporal" variability and the "spatial" variability of the biochemical parameters regulating vegetation carbon uptake. This combined variability leads to a non-straightforward scaling of ecosystem fluxes from the leaf to ecosystems. To illustrate this scaling behaviour, we used 10 years of leaf gas exchange measurements collected at the Duke Forest FACE experiment. The internal variability of the ecosystem parameters are first quantified and then combined with three different leaf-scale stomatal conductance models and an ecosystem model. The main results are: (a) Variability of the leaf level fluxes is dependent on both the meteorological drivers and differences in leaf age, position within the canopy, nitrogen and CO2 fertilization, which can be accommodated in model parameters; (b) Meteorological variability plays the dominant role at short temporal scales while parameter variability is significant at longer temporal scales. (c) Leaf level results do not necessarily translate to similar ecosystem

  5. A Model of Internal Communication in Adaptive Communication Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M. Lee

    A study identified and categorized different types of internal communication systems and developed an applied model of internal communication in adaptive organizational systems. Twenty-one large organizations were selected for their varied missions and diverse approaches to managing internal communication. Individual face-to-face or telephone…

  6. Estimation and variable selection for generalized additive partial linear models

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Li

    2011-08-01

    We study generalized additive partial linear models, proposing the use of polynomial spline smoothing for estimation of nonparametric functions, and deriving quasi-likelihood based estimators for the linear parameters. We establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the parametric components. The procedure avoids solving large systems of equations as in kernel-based procedures and thus results in gains in computational simplicity. We further develop a class of variable selection procedures for the linear parameters by employing a nonconcave penalized quasi-likelihood, which is shown to have an asymptotic oracle property. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example are presented for illustration. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011.

  7. Context Tree Estimation in Variable Length Hidden Markov Models

    OpenAIRE

    Dumont, Thierry

    2011-01-01

    We address the issue of context tree estimation in variable length hidden Markov models. We propose an estimator of the context tree of the hidden Markov process which needs no prior upper bound on the depth of the context tree. We prove that the estimator is strongly consistent. This uses information-theoretic mixture inequalities in the spirit of Finesso and Lorenzo(Consistent estimation of the order for Markov and hidden Markov chains(1990)) and E.Gassiat and S.Boucheron (Optimal error exp...

  8. Remote sensing of the Canadian Arctic: Modelling biophysical variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Nanfeng

    It is anticipated that Arctic vegetation will respond in a variety of ways to altered temperature and precipitation patterns expected with climate change, including changes in phenology, productivity, biomass, cover and net ecosystem exchange. Remote sensing provides data and data processing methodologies for monitoring and assessing Arctic vegetation over large areas. The goal of this research was to explore the potential of hyperspectral and high spatial resolution multispectral remote sensing data for modelling two important Arctic biophysical variables: Percent Vegetation Cover (PVC) and the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR). A series of field experiments were conducted to collect PVC and fAPAR at three Canadian Arctic sites: (1) Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU; (2) Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO), Melville Island, NU; and (3) Apex River Watershed (ARW), Baffin Island, NU. Linear relationships between biophysical variables and Vegetation Indices (VIs) were examined at different spatial scales using field spectra (for the Sabine Peninsula site) and high spatial resolution satellite data (for the CBAWO and ARW sites). At the Sabine Peninsula site, hyperspectral VIs exhibited a better performance for modelling PVC than multispectral VIs due to their capacity for sampling fine spectral features. The optimal hyperspectral bands were located at important spectral features observed in Arctic vegetation spectra, including leaf pigment absorption in the red wavelengths and at the red-edge, leaf water absorption in the near infrared, and leaf cellulose and lignin absorption in the shortwave infrared. At the CBAWO and ARW sites, field PVC and fAPAR exhibited strong correlations (R2 > 0.70) with the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) derived from high-resolution WorldView-2 data. Similarly, high spatial resolution satellite-derived fAPAR was correlated to MODIS fAPAR (R2 = 0.68), with a systematic

  9. Classification criteria of syndromes by latent variable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Janne

    2010-01-01

    , although this is often desired. I have proposed a new method for predicting class membership that, in contrast to methods based on posterior probabilities of class membership, yields consistent estimates when regressed on explanatory variables in a subsequent analysis. There are four different basic models...... analyses. Part 1: HALS engages different phenotypic changes of peripheral lipoatrophy and central lipohypertrophy.  There are several different definitions of HALS and no consensus on the number of phenotypes. Many of the definitions consist of counting fulfilled criteria on markers and do not include...

  10. Modeling intraindividual variability with repeated measures data methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hershberger, Scott L

    2013-01-01

    This book examines how individuals behave across time and to what degree that behavior changes, fluctuates, or remains stable.It features the most current methods on modeling repeated measures data as reported by a distinguished group of experts in the field. The goal is to make the latest techniques used to assess intraindividual variability accessible to a wide range of researchers. Each chapter is written in a ""user-friendly"" style such that even the ""novice"" data analyst can easily apply the techniques.Each chapter features:a minimum discussion of mathematical detail;an empirical examp

  11. Variable recruitment fluidic artificial muscles: modeling and experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryant, Matthew; Meller, Michael A; Garcia, Ephrahim

    2014-01-01

    We investigate taking advantage of the lightweight, compliant nature of fluidic artificial muscles to create variable recruitment actuators in the form of artificial muscle bundles. Several actuator elements at different diameter scales are packaged to act as a single actuator device. The actuator elements of the bundle can be connected to the fluidic control circuit so that different groups of actuator elements, much like individual muscle fibers, can be activated independently depending on the required force output and motion. This novel actuation concept allows us to save energy by effectively impedance matching the active size of the actuators on the fly based on the instantaneous required load. This design also allows a single bundled actuator to operate in substantially different force regimes, which could be valuable for robots that need to perform a wide variety of tasks and interact safely with humans. This paper proposes, models and analyzes the actuation efficiency of this actuator concept. The analysis shows that variable recruitment operation can create an actuator that reduces throttling valve losses to operate more efficiently over a broader range of its force–strain operating space. We also present preliminary results of the design, fabrication and experimental characterization of three such bioinspired variable recruitment actuator prototypes. (paper)

  12. Quantifying uncertainty, variability and likelihood for ordinary differential equation models

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Weisse, Andrea Y

    2010-10-28

    Abstract Background In many applications, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are subject to uncertainty or variability in initial conditions and parameters. Both, uncertainty and variability can be quantified in terms of a probability density function on the state and parameter space. Results The partial differential equation that describes the evolution of this probability density function has a form that is particularly amenable to application of the well-known method of characteristics. The value of the density at some point in time is directly accessible by the solution of the original ODE extended by a single extra dimension (for the value of the density). This leads to simple methods for studying uncertainty, variability and likelihood, with significant advantages over more traditional Monte Carlo and related approaches especially when studying regions with low probability. Conclusions While such approaches based on the method of characteristics are common practice in other disciplines, their advantages for the study of biological systems have so far remained unrecognized. Several examples illustrate performance and accuracy of the approach and its limitations.

  13. Uncertainty importance measure for models with correlated normal variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao, Wenrui; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Pengfei

    2013-01-01

    In order to explore the contributions by correlated input variables to the variance of the model output, the contribution decomposition of the correlated input variables based on Mara's definition is investigated in detail. By taking the quadratic polynomial output without cross term as an illustration, the solution of the contribution decomposition is derived analytically using the statistical inference theory. After the correction of the analytical solution is validated by the numerical examples, they are employed to two engineering examples to show their wide application. The derived analytical solutions can directly be used to recognize the contributions by the correlated input variables in case of the quadratic or linear polynomial output without cross term, and the analytical inference method can be extended to the case of higher order polynomial output. Additionally, the origins of the interaction contribution of the correlated inputs are analyzed, and the comparisons of the existing contribution indices are completed, on which the engineer can select the suitable indices to know the necessary information. At last, the degeneration of the correlated inputs to the uncorrelated ones and some computational issues are discussed in concept

  14. Variability of the internal tide on the southern Monterey Bay continental shelf and associated bottom boundary layer sediment transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberger, Kurt; Storlazzi, Curt; Cheriton, Olivia

    2016-01-01

    A 6-month deployment of instrumentation from April to October 2012 in 90 m water depth near the outer edge of the mid-shelf mud belt in southern Monterey Bay, California, reveals the importance regional upwelling on water column density structure, potentially accounting for the majority of the variability in internal tidal energy flux across the shelf. Observations consisted of time-series measurements of water-column currents, temperature and salinity, and near-bed currents and suspended matter. The internal tide accounted for 15–25% of the water-column current variance and the barotropic tide accounted for up to 35%. The subtidal flow showed remarkably little shear and was dominated by the 7–14 day band, which is associated with relaxations in the dominant equatorward winds typical of coastal California in the spring and summer. Upwelling and relaxation events resulted in strong near-bed flows and accounted for almost half of the current stress on the seafloor (not accounting for wave orbital velocities), and may have driven along-shelf geostrophic flow during steady state conditions. Several elevated suspended particulate matter (SPM) events occurred within 3 m of the bed and were generally associated with higher, long-period surface waves. However, these peaks in SPM did not coincide with the predicted resuspension events from the modeled combined wave–current shear stress, indicating that the observed SPM at our site was most likely resuspended elsewhere and advected along-isobath. Sediment flux was almost equal in magnitude in the alongshore and cross-shore directions. Instances of wave–current shear stress that exceeded the threshold of resuspension for the silty-clays common at these water depths only occurred when near-bed orbital velocities due to long-period surface waves coincided with vigorous near-bed currents associated with the internal tide or upwelling/relaxation events. Thus upwelling/relaxation dynamics are primarily responsible for

  15. Viscous dark energy models with variable G and Λ

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arbab, Arbab I.

    2008-01-01

    We consider a cosmological model with bulk viscosity η and variable cosmological A ∝ ρ -α , alpha = const and gravitational G constants. The model exhibits many interesting cosmological features. Inflation proceeds due to the presence of bulk viscosity and dark energy without requiring the equation of state p=-ρ. During the inflationary era the energy density ρ does not remain constant, as in the de-Sitter type. Moreover, the cosmological and gravitational constants increase exponentially with time, whereas the energy density and viscosity decrease exponentially with time. The rate of mass creation during inflation is found to be very huge suggesting that all matter in the universe is created during inflation. (author)

  16. Constrained variability of modeled T:ET ratio across biomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, Simone; Pappas, Christoforos

    2017-07-01

    A large variability (35-90%) in the ratio of transpiration to total evapotranspiration (referred here as T:ET) across biomes or even at the global scale has been documented by a number of studies carried out with different methodologies. Previous empirical results also suggest that T:ET does not covary with mean precipitation and has a positive dependence on leaf area index (LAI). Here we use a mechanistic ecohydrological model, with a refined process-based description of evaporation from the soil surface, to investigate the variability of T:ET across biomes. Numerical results reveal a more constrained range and higher mean of T:ET (70 ± 9%, mean ± standard deviation) when compared to observation-based estimates. T:ET is confirmed to be independent from mean precipitation, while it is found to be correlated with LAI seasonally but uncorrelated across multiple sites. Larger LAI increases evaporation from interception but diminishes ground evaporation with the two effects largely compensating each other. These results offer mechanistic model-based evidence to the ongoing research about the patterns of T:ET and the factors influencing its magnitude across biomes.

  17. Modeling the variability of shapes of a human placenta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yampolsky, M; Salafia, C M; Shlakhter, O; Haas, D; Eucker, B; Thorp, J

    2008-09-01

    Placentas are generally round/oval in shape, but "irregular" shapes are common. In the Collaborative Perinatal Project data, irregular shapes were associated with lower birth weight for placental weight, suggesting variably shaped placentas have altered function. (I) Using a 3D one-parameter model of placental vascular growth based on Diffusion Limited Aggregation (an accepted model for generating highly branched fractals), models were run with a branching density growth parameter either fixed or perturbed at either 5-7% or 50% of model growth. (II) In a data set with detailed measures of 1207 placental perimeters, radial standard deviations of placental shapes were calculated from the umbilical cord insertion, and from the centroid of the shape (a biologically arbitrary point). These two were compared to the difference between the observed scaling exponent and the Kleiber scaling exponent (0.75), considered optimal for vascular fractal transport systems. Spearman's rank correlation considered pcentroid) was associated with differences from the Kleiber exponent (p=0.006). A dynamical DLA model recapitulates multilobate and "star" placental shapes via changing fractal branching density. We suggest that (1) irregular placental outlines reflect deformation of the underlying placental fractal vascular network, (2) such irregularities in placental outline indicate sub-optimal branching structure of the vascular tree, and (3) this accounts for the lower birth weight observed in non-round/oval placentas in the Collaborative Perinatal Project.

  18. A general model for use in internal dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, J.R.; Carver, M.B.

    1981-01-01

    A model is described that combines the International Commission on Radiological Protection's Task Group on Lung Dynamics' Model, Eve's model for transport of material through the gastro-intestinal tract and a compartment model for the organs. Differential equations for this model are given, which include urinary and fecal excretion rates, and the method used to obtain solutions to these equations is described. (author)

  19. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, FA

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available -mail: fengelbrecht@csir.co.za Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable-resolution global model FA Engelbrecht1, 2*, WA Landman1, 3, CJ Engelbrecht4, S Landman5, MM Bopape1, B Roux6, JL McGregor7 and M Thatcher7 1 CSIR Natural... improvement. Keywords: multi-scale climate modelling, variable-resolution atmospheric model Introduction Dynamic climate models have become the primary tools for the projection of future climate change, at both the global and regional scales. Dynamic...

  20. Interobserver variability in the evaluation of internal carotid artery stenosis by CT angiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrascosa, Patricia; Meli, Francisco; Sampere, Tulio; Capunay, Carlos; Sanchez, Flavio; Carrascosa, Jorge

    2001-01-01

    Ischemic cerebral vascular events are primarily due to atherosclerotic narrowing of carotid bifurcation. Catheter Angiography (CA) is the best test for determining carotid artery stenosis, but it is invasive and has some risks. The purpose of this study was to evaluate CT Angiography (CTA) as a non-invasive method compared with CA. Different estimate procedures (NASCET, ESCT and area quantification) were done to compare the Sensitivity (S) and Specificity (E) of each one with CA. Afterwards, interobserver variability of the three procedures was evaluated. Thirty-eight internal carotid arteries were studied in 19 patients with transient ischemic attacks. CTA studies were done in a helical CT scanner. The images were evaluated in a workstation by two radiologists, who were blinded to the percentage of stenosis determined by CA. For statistical analysis, the measurement of stenosis percentage was divided in two groups: a) Negative (0-69%) and b) Positive:(70-100%). Kappa analysis (K) was used to determine the agreement of stenosis. Results: Observer 1: Sensitivity (S) NASCET: 94%, ESCT: 77% and area 94% and Specificity (E): 91%, 87,5% and 87,5%. Observer 2: 77%, 77% and 74%. The interobserver K was 0.83, 0792 and 0.78 for NASCET, ESCT and area quantification methods respectively. In conclusion, CTA has high S and E especially in NASCET and area quantification. (author)

  1. Refractive Index Imaging of Cells with Variable-Angle Near-Total Internal Reflection (TIR) Microscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohannon, Kevin P; Holz, Ronald W; Axelrod, Daniel

    2017-10-01

    The refractive index in the interior of single cells affects the evanescent field depth in quantitative studies using total internal reflection (TIR) fluorescence, but often that index is not well known. We here present method to measure and spatially map the absolute index of refraction in a microscopic sample, by imaging a collimated light beam reflected from the substrate/buffer/cell interference at variable angles of incidence. Above the TIR critical angle (which is a strong function of refractive index), the reflection is 100%, but in the immediate sub-critical angle zone, the reflection intensity is a very strong ascending function of incidence angle. By analyzing the angular position of that edge at each location in the field of view, the local refractive index can be estimated. In addition, by analyzing the steepness of the edge, the distance-to-substrate can be determined. We apply the technique to liquid calibration samples, silica beads, cultured Chinese hamster ovary cells, and primary culture chromaffin cells. The optical technique suffers from decremented lateral resolution, scattering, and interference artifacts. However, it still provides reasonable results for both refractive index (~1.38) and for distance-to-substrate (~150 nm) for the cells, as well as a lateral resolution to about 1 µm.

  2. Genotypic characterization by multi locus variable number of tandem repeats analysis international Bordetella pertussis vaccine strains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fatah Moghadam

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: In 1930's first whole cell pertussis vaccines became available to the public heralding a dramatic success in overcoming the global burden of the disease. To date only a handful of B. pertussis strains have been used by international/local pertussis vaccine manufacturers. Inevitable well-documented genetic changes in the world population of this pathogen have prompted serious questions on suitability of traditional vaccine strains protect human against currently circulating wild isolates of Bordetella pertussis. Objective: Analyzing the genetic diversity within the most frequently-used vaccine strains of B. pertussis in the world Methods: A recently developed multi locus variable number of tandem repeats analysis (MLVA genotyping system along with a bioinforamtic piece of analysis was conducted on 11 strain / substrains of B137, B203 (10536, C393, Cs, E476, Tohama I, J445 (134, B202 and J446 (509 plus 2 sub-strains of 134 and 509 that are used at Razi institute for preparation of pertussis vaccine. In this study have used 6 individual loci of VNTR1, VNTR3a, VNTR3b, VNTR4, VNTR5 and VNTR6. Findings: Six distinct genotypes were recognized among the examined strains by comparing our data with the Dutch MLVA databank. These were all new and not reported before in the database. Conclusion: This observation reiterates on necessity for detection of predominant native strains to include in vaccine preparations suitable for different countries.

  3. Identification and modeling of internal waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Murty, T.V.R.; Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, M.M.M.; SujithKumar, S.; Maneesha, K.; Sandhya, K.S.; Prakash, S.S.; Chandramouli, P.; Murthy, K.S.R.

    Analyses of Internal Wave (IW) signatures by insitu observations off Visakhapatnam have been presented to study the impact of IWs on acoustic field. Temperature data were collected for 44 hours off Visakhapatnam (17° 26.46’N and 83° 31.20’E...

  4. Transient modelling of a natural circulation loop under variable pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vianna, Andre L.B.; Faccini, Jose L.H.; Su, Jian; Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the present work is to model the transient operation of a natural circulation loop, which is one-tenth scale in height to a typical Passive Residual Heat Removal system (PRHR) of an Advanced Pressurized Water Nuclear Reactor and was designed to meet the single and two-phase flow similarity criteria to it. The loop consists of a core barrel with electrically heated rods, upper and lower plena interconnected by hot and cold pipe legs to a seven-tube shell heat exchanger of countercurrent design, and an expansion tank with a descending tube. A long transient characterized the loop operation, during which a phenomenon of self-pressurization, without self-regulation of the pressure, was experimentally observed. This represented a unique situation, named natural circulation under variable pressure (NCVP). The self-pressurization was originated in the air trapped in the expansion tank and compressed by the loop water dilatation, as it heated up during each experiment. The mathematical model, initially oriented to the single-phase flow, included the heat capacity of the structure and employed a cubic polynomial approximation for the density, in the buoyancy term calculation. The heater was modelled taking into account the different heat capacities of the heating elements and the heater walls. The heat exchanger was modelled considering the coolant heating, during the heat exchanging process. The self-pressurization was modelled as an isentropic compression of a perfect gas. The whole model was computationally implemented via a set of finite difference equations. The corresponding computational algorithm of solution was of the explicit, marching type, as for the time discretization, in an upwind scheme, regarding the space discretization. The computational program was implemented in MATLAB. Several experiments were carried out in the natural circulation loop, having the coolant flow rate and the heating power as control parameters. The variables used in the

  5. Transient modelling of a natural circulation loop under variable pressure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vianna, Andre L.B.; Faccini, Jose L.H.; Su, Jian, E-mail: avianna@nuclear.ufrj.br, E-mail: sujian@nuclear.ufrj.br, E-mail: faccini@ien.gov.br [Coordenacao de Pos-Graduacao e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear; Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Termo-Hidraulica Experimental

    2017-07-01

    The objective of the present work is to model the transient operation of a natural circulation loop, which is one-tenth scale in height to a typical Passive Residual Heat Removal system (PRHR) of an Advanced Pressurized Water Nuclear Reactor and was designed to meet the single and two-phase flow similarity criteria to it. The loop consists of a core barrel with electrically heated rods, upper and lower plena interconnected by hot and cold pipe legs to a seven-tube shell heat exchanger of countercurrent design, and an expansion tank with a descending tube. A long transient characterized the loop operation, during which a phenomenon of self-pressurization, without self-regulation of the pressure, was experimentally observed. This represented a unique situation, named natural circulation under variable pressure (NCVP). The self-pressurization was originated in the air trapped in the expansion tank and compressed by the loop water dilatation, as it heated up during each experiment. The mathematical model, initially oriented to the single-phase flow, included the heat capacity of the structure and employed a cubic polynomial approximation for the density, in the buoyancy term calculation. The heater was modelled taking into account the different heat capacities of the heating elements and the heater walls. The heat exchanger was modelled considering the coolant heating, during the heat exchanging process. The self-pressurization was modelled as an isentropic compression of a perfect gas. The whole model was computationally implemented via a set of finite difference equations. The corresponding computational algorithm of solution was of the explicit, marching type, as for the time discretization, in an upwind scheme, regarding the space discretization. The computational program was implemented in MATLAB. Several experiments were carried out in the natural circulation loop, having the coolant flow rate and the heating power as control parameters. The variables used in the

  6. Internal Universes in Models of Homotopy Type Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Licata, Daniel R.; Orton, Ian; Pitts, Andrew M.

    2018-01-01

    We show that universes of fibrations in various models of homotopy type theory have an essentially global character: they cannot be described in the internal language of the presheaf topos from which the model is constructed. We get around this problem by extending the internal language with a mo...... that the interval in cubical sets does indeed have. This leads to a completely internal development of models of homotopy type theory within what we call crisp type theory.......We show that universes of fibrations in various models of homotopy type theory have an essentially global character: they cannot be described in the internal language of the presheaf topos from which the model is constructed. We get around this problem by extending the internal language...

  7. Thermomechanical and calorimetric behaviours of supported glass-forming films: A study based on thermodynamics with internal variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lion, Alexander; Engelhard, Marco; Johlitz, Michael

    2012-01-01

    In order to understand the temperature-dependent response behaviour of thin thermoviscoelastic films which are deposited on relative stiff but thermally deformable substrates it is important to consider the lateral geometric constraints. They are generated by differences in the thermal expansion properties between the substrate and the film and provoke internal stresses. Since glass-forming materials exhibit distinct temperature history-dependent thermal expansion and calorimetric properties, primarily in the vicinity of the glass transition, the situation is rather complicated. In this article, a recently developed three-dimensional model of thermodynamics with internal variables is applied and adapted to simulate this type of behaviour. Explicit relations are obtained for the specific heat of the film, the normal strain and the lateral stresses. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the magnitude of the internal stress at temperatures below the glass transition depends strongly on the cooling rate. It is also shown that the specific heat of the supported film is principally different from the isobaric specific heat of the bulk material: the glassy limit of the specific heat of the film is reduced but the glass transition temperature is almost uninfluenced. The simulated behaviour is in accordance with experimental observations from literature. - Highlights: ► For the specific heat, stress and strain of the film, explicit equations were derived. ► The constraints of the substrate reduce the glassy limit of specific heat of the film. ► Glass transition temperatures of free bulk material and supported film are equal. ► Simulations are in good agreement with experimental observations from literature.

  8. Thermomechanical and calorimetric behaviours of supported glass-forming films: A study based on thermodynamics with internal variables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lion, Alexander, E-mail: alexander.lion@unibw.de; Engelhard, Marco; Johlitz, Michael

    2012-11-01

    In order to understand the temperature-dependent response behaviour of thin thermoviscoelastic films which are deposited on relative stiff but thermally deformable substrates it is important to consider the lateral geometric constraints. They are generated by differences in the thermal expansion properties between the substrate and the film and provoke internal stresses. Since glass-forming materials exhibit distinct temperature history-dependent thermal expansion and calorimetric properties, primarily in the vicinity of the glass transition, the situation is rather complicated. In this article, a recently developed three-dimensional model of thermodynamics with internal variables is applied and adapted to simulate this type of behaviour. Explicit relations are obtained for the specific heat of the film, the normal strain and the lateral stresses. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the magnitude of the internal stress at temperatures below the glass transition depends strongly on the cooling rate. It is also shown that the specific heat of the supported film is principally different from the isobaric specific heat of the bulk material: the glassy limit of the specific heat of the film is reduced but the glass transition temperature is almost uninfluenced. The simulated behaviour is in accordance with experimental observations from literature. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer For the specific heat, stress and strain of the film, explicit equations were derived. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The constraints of the substrate reduce the glassy limit of specific heat of the film. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Glass transition temperatures of free bulk material and supported film are equal. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Simulations are in good agreement with experimental observations from literature.

  9. Modelling and prediction of pig iron variables in the blast furnace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saxen, H; Laaksonen, M; Waller, M [Aabo Akademi, Turku (Finland). Heat Engineering Lab.

    1997-12-31

    The blast furnace, where pig iron for steelmaking is produced, is an extremely complicated process, with heat and mass transfer and chemical reactions between several phases. Very few direct measurements on the internal state are available in the operation of the process. A main problem in on-line analysis and modelling is that the state of the furnace may undergo spontaneous changes, which alter the dynamic behaviour of the process. Moreover, large internal disturbances frequently occur, which affect the product quality. The work in this research project focuses on a central problem in the control of the blast furnace process, i.e., short-term prediction of pig iron variables. The problem is of considerable importance for fuel economy, product quality, and for an optimal decision making in integrated steel plants. The operation of the blast furnace aims at producing a product (hot metal) with variables maintained on a stable level (close to their setpoints) without waste of expensive fuel (metallurgical coke). The hot metal temperature and composition affect the downstream (steelmaking) processes, so fluctuations in the pig iron quality must be `corrected` in the steel plant. The goal is to develop a system which predicts the evolution of the hot metal variables (temperature, chemical composition) during the next few taps, and that can be used for decision-making in the operation of the blast furnace. Because of the complicated behaviour of the process, it is considered important to include both deterministic and stochastic components in the modelling: Mathematical models, which on the basis of measurements describe the physical state of the process, and statistical (black-box) models will be combined in the system. Moreover, different models will be applied in different domains in order to capture structural changes in the dynamics of the process SULA 2 Research Programme; 17 refs.

  10. Modelling and prediction of pig iron variables in the blast furnace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saxen, H.; Laaksonen, M.; Waller, M. [Aabo Akademi, Turku (Finland). Heat Engineering Lab.

    1996-12-31

    The blast furnace, where pig iron for steelmaking is produced, is an extremely complicated process, with heat and mass transfer and chemical reactions between several phases. Very few direct measurements on the internal state are available in the operation of the process. A main problem in on-line analysis and modelling is that the state of the furnace may undergo spontaneous changes, which alter the dynamic behaviour of the process. Moreover, large internal disturbances frequently occur, which affect the product quality. The work in this research project focuses on a central problem in the control of the blast furnace process, i.e., short-term prediction of pig iron variables. The problem is of considerable importance for fuel economy, product quality, and for an optimal decision making in integrated steel plants. The operation of the blast furnace aims at producing a product (hot metal) with variables maintained on a stable level (close to their setpoints) without waste of expensive fuel (metallurgical coke). The hot metal temperature and composition affect the downstream (steelmaking) processes, so fluctuations in the pig iron quality must be `corrected` in the steel plant. The goal is to develop a system which predicts the evolution of the hot metal variables (temperature, chemical composition) during the next few taps, and that can be used for decision-making in the operation of the blast furnace. Because of the complicated behaviour of the process, it is considered important to include both deterministic and stochastic components in the modelling: Mathematical models, which on the basis of measurements describe the physical state of the process, and statistical (black-box) models will be combined in the system. Moreover, different models will be applied in different domains in order to capture structural changes in the dynamics of the process SULA 2 Research Programme; 17 refs.

  11. Investigation on the Effects of Internal EGR by Variable Exhaust Valve Actuation with Post Injection on Auto-ignited Combustion and Emission Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Insu Cho

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Variable valve mechanisms are usually applied to a gasoline combustion engine to improve its power performance by controlling the amount of intake air according to the operating load. These mechanisms offer one possibility of resolving the conflict of objectives between a further reduction of raw emissions and an improvement in fuel efficiency. In recent years, variable valve control systems have become extremely important in the diesel combustion engine. Importantly, it has been shown that there are several potential benefits of applying variable valve timing (VVT to a compression ignition engine. Valve train variability could offer one option to achieve the reduction goals of engine-out emissions and fuel consumption. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects on part load combustion and emission performance of internal exhaust gas recirculation (EGR by variable exhaust valve lift actuation using a cam-in-cam system, which is an electronically variable valve device with a variable inside cam retarded to about 30 degrees. Numerical simulation based on GT-POWER has been performed to predict the NOx reduction strategy at the part load operating point of 1200 rpm in a four-valve diesel engine. A GT-POWER model of a common-rail direct injection engine with internal EGR was built and verified with experimental data. As a result, large potential for reducing NOx emissions through the use of exhaust valve control has been identified. Namely, it is possible to utilize heat efficiently as recompression of retarded post injection with downscaled specification of the exhaust valve rather than the intake valve, even if the CIC V1 condition with a reduction of the exhaust valve has a higher internal EGR rate of about 2% compared to that of the CIC V2 condition.

  12. SME International Business Models: The Role of Context and Experience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Child, John; Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said

    2017-01-01

    This paper addresses two questions through a study of 180 SMEs located in contrasting industry and home country contexts. First, which business models for international markets prevail among SMEs and do they configure into different types? Second, which factors predict the international business...... models that SMEs follow? Three distinct international business models (traditional market-adaptive, technology exploiter, and ambidextrous explorer) are found among the SMEs studied. The likelihood of SMEs adopting one business model rather than another is to a high degree predictable with reference...

  13. Model Pengendalian Internal Berbasis Sarbanes-Oxley Act dan Keandalan Pelaporan Keuangan (Studi Internal Audit Pada Perusahaan Publik di Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syahril Djaddang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study focus on internal control application based on the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. The research objective is to examine the impact of Sarbanes-Oxley Act implementation and the financial reporting reliability toward audit quality and audit opinion. The research is conducted on public companies implementing Sarbanes- Oxley Act in Indonesia. The internal audit section in the companies are used as respondents. Based on questionnaires distributed, there were 35 samples of public companies used in this research. This study employs WarpPLS to handle the SEM model in testing the hypotheses and multigroup analysis to conduct the sensitivity analysis. The research’s results showed that application of Sarbanes-Oxley Act based internal control and financial reporting reliability are positively affect the audit opinions and directly influence the audit quality. However, the independent auditor's opinion is not a moderating variables between other variables. The research results are expected to be used as considerations by the companies in implementation of Sarbanes-Oxley Act based internal control.

  14. Resolving structural variability in network models and the brain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Klimm

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale white matter pathways crisscrossing the cortex create a complex pattern of connectivity that underlies human cognitive function. Generative mechanisms for this architecture have been difficult to identify in part because little is known in general about mechanistic drivers of structured networks. Here we contrast network properties derived from diffusion spectrum imaging data of the human brain with 13 synthetic network models chosen to probe the roles of physical network embedding and temporal network growth. We characterize both the empirical and synthetic networks using familiar graph metrics, but presented here in a more complete statistical form, as scatter plots and distributions, to reveal the full range of variability of each measure across scales in the network. We focus specifically on the degree distribution, degree assortativity, hierarchy, topological Rentian scaling, and topological fractal scaling--in addition to several summary statistics, including the mean clustering coefficient, the shortest path-length, and the network diameter. The models are investigated in a progressive, branching sequence, aimed at capturing different elements thought to be important in the brain, and range from simple random and regular networks, to models that incorporate specific growth rules and constraints. We find that synthetic models that constrain the network nodes to be physically embedded in anatomical brain regions tend to produce distributions that are most similar to the corresponding measurements for the brain. We also find that network models hardcoded to display one network property (e.g., assortativity do not in general simultaneously display a second (e.g., hierarchy. This relative independence of network properties suggests that multiple neurobiological mechanisms might be at play in the development of human brain network architecture. Together, the network models that we develop and employ provide a potentially useful

  15. Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Luke Alexander

    Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall

  16. On the explaining-away phenomenon in multivariate latent variable models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rijn, Peter; Rijmen, Frank

    2015-02-01

    Many probabilistic models for psychological and educational measurements contain latent variables. Well-known examples are factor analysis, item response theory, and latent class model families. We discuss what is referred to as the 'explaining-away' phenomenon in the context of such latent variable models. This phenomenon can occur when multiple latent variables are related to the same observed variable, and can elicit seemingly counterintuitive conditional dependencies between latent variables given observed variables. We illustrate the implications of explaining away for a number of well-known latent variable models by using both theoretical and real data examples. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  17. Total Variability Modeling using Source-specific Priors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shepstone, Sven Ewan; Lee, Kong Aik; Li, Haizhou

    2016-01-01

    sequence of an utterance. In both cases the prior for the latent variable is assumed to be non-informative, since for homogeneous datasets there is no gain in generality in using an informative prior. This work shows in the heterogeneous case, that using informative priors for com- puting the posterior......, can lead to favorable results. We focus on modeling the priors using minimum divergence criterion or fac- tor analysis techniques. Tests on the NIST 2008 and 2010 Speaker Recognition Evaluation (SRE) dataset show that our proposed method beats four baselines: For i-vector extraction using an already...... trained matrix, for the short2-short3 task in SRE’08, five out of eight female and four out of eight male common conditions, were improved. For the core-extended task in SRE’10, four out of nine female and six out of nine male common conditions were improved. When incorporating prior information...

  18. Prediction of Placental Barrier Permeability: A Model Based on Partial Least Squares Variable Selection Procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Hong Zhang

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the human placental barrier permeability of drugs is very important to guarantee drug safety during pregnancy. Quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR method was used as an effective assessing tool for the placental transfer study of drugs, while in vitro human placental perfusion is the most widely used method. In this study, the partial least squares (PLS variable selection and modeling procedure was used to pick out optimal descriptors from a pool of 620 descriptors of 65 compounds and to simultaneously develop a QSAR model between the descriptors and the placental barrier permeability expressed by the clearance indices (CI. The model was subjected to internal validation by cross-validation and y-randomization and to external validation by predicting CI values of 19 compounds. It was shown that the model developed is robust and has a good predictive potential (r2 = 0.9064, RMSE = 0.09, q2 = 0.7323, rp2 = 0.7656, RMSP = 0.14. The mechanistic interpretation of the final model was given by the high variable importance in projection values of descriptors. Using PLS procedure, we can rapidly and effectively select optimal descriptors and thus construct a model with good stability and predictability. This analysis can provide an effective tool for the high-throughput screening of the placental barrier permeability of drugs.

  19. TIMSS 2011 User Guide for the International Database. Supplement 3: Variables Derived from the Student, Home, Teacher, and School Questionnaire Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Pierre, Ed.; Arora, Alka, Ed.; Stanco, Gabrielle M., Ed.

    2013-01-01

    This supplement contains documentation on all the derived variables contained in the TIMSS 2011 data files that are based on background questionnaire variables. These variables were used to report background data in the TIMSS 2011 International Results in Mathematics and TIMSS 2011 International Results in Science reports, and are made available…

  20. TEDS-M 2008 User Guide for the International Database. Supplement 3: Variables Derived from the Educator and Future Teacher Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brese, Falk, Ed.

    2012-01-01

    This supplement contains documentation on all the derived variables contained in the TEDS-M educator and future teacher data files. These derived variables were used to report data in the TEDS-M international reports. The variables that constitute the scales and indices are made available as part of the TEDS-M International Database to be used in…

  1. Modern Gravity Models of Internal Migration. The Case of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela BUNEA

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Internal migration, although less investigated than international migration, is a key mechanism for adjustment to regional economic shocks, especially when other tools prove useless. But this process has very complex factors of determination which can be economic, social, demographic, environmental, etc. Based on previous international studies, in the case of Romania the robust variables proved to be the population size, the per capita gross domestic product, the road density, an amenity index and the crime rate from a static perspective, and the previous migration, the population size and the amenity index from a dynamic perspective. The techniques I have employed in making this study are the Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV, or the fixed effects method and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM, or the dynamic method both applied to panel data.

  2. Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Jose Angelo Divino; Michael McAleer

    2009-01-01

    Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO’s World Heritage List. For the potential negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability...

  3. International variability in diet and requirements of manganese: Causes and consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeland-Graves, Jean H; Mousa, Tamara Y; Kim, Sangyoung

    2016-12-01

    Manganese (Mn) is an essential trace element that is critical for human health and development. At the turn of the century when diets were based on whole grains, cereals and other traditional foods, Mn intakes (8-9mg/d) were much greater than that prevalent today (2mg/d). As societies have developed, diets have shifted as part of a nutrition transition, to those that are high in processed foods, fat, and sugar. These foods are virtually devoid of Mn. Thus, dietary Mn has declined substantially throughout the world, as confirmed by several wide-scale, total diet studies. International variability in dietary Mn is considerable, due to tremendous diversity in food and culture. In countries where fruit and vegetable intake may be limited, i.e. the United Kingdom, populations may ingest much lower levels of Mn (1.4mg/d) as compared to Asian cultures (4mg/d) which have an abundance of plant foods in their food supply and cuisine. The bioavailability of Mn must be considered, including chemical form, oxidation state, mineral-mineral interactions, presence of dietary components and traditional food processing techniques (milling, germination, malting, fermentation). Manganese toxicity is a public health problem that results from exposure to a naturally high water source or contaminated environment of the soil and/or drinking water. In contrast, inadequate intake is associated with adverse health effects such as diabetes, metabolic syndrome, poor birth outcomes and possibly, cancer. Future studies are recommended to set dietary standards for this mineral in countries that lack recommendations to help achieve optimal health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  4. Adhesion of living cells revealed by variable-angle total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso Dos Santos, Marcelina; Vézy, Cyrille; Jaffiol, Rodolphe

    2016-02-01

    Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence Microscopy (TIRFM) is a widespread technique to study cellular process occurring near the contact region with the glass substrate. In this field, determination of the accurate distance from the surface to the plasma membrane constitutes a crucial issue to investigate the physical basis of cellular adhesion process. However, quantitative interpretation of TIRF pictures regarding the distance z between a labeled membrane and the substrate is not trivial. Indeed, the contrast of TIRF images depends on several parameters more and less well known (local concentration of dyes, absorption cross section, angular emission pattern…). The strategy to get around this problem is to exploit a series of TIRF pictures recorded at different incident angles in evanescent regime. This technique called variable-angle TIRF microscopy (vaTIRFM), allowing to map the membrane-substrate separation distance with a nanometric resolution (10-20 nm). vaTIRFM was developed by Burmeister, Truskey and Reichert in the early 1990s with a prism-based TIRF setup [Journal of Microscopy 173, 39-51 (1994)]. We propose a more convenient prismless setup, which uses only a rotatable mirror to adjust precisely the laser beam on the back focal plane of the oil immersion objective (no azimuthal scanning is needed). The series of TIRF images permit us to calculate accurately membrane-surface distances in each pixel. We demonstrate that vaTIRFM are useful to quantify the adhesion of living cells for specific and unspecific membrane-surface interactions, achieved on various functionalized substrates with polymers (BSA, poly-L-lysin) or extracellular matrix proteins (collagen and fibronectin).

  5. An Analysis of Basic Construction Variables of Racing Wheelchairs Used in the 1984 International Games for the Disabled.

    Science.gov (United States)

    York, Sherril L.; Kimura, Iris F.

    1987-01-01

    A photographic analysis of racing wheelchairs used by cerebral palsy class four athletes and amputee athletes at the 1984 International Games for the Disabled was undertaken in order to analyze seven wheelchair construction variables in relation to performance outcome, distance raced, and type of disability of the user. (Author/MT)

  6. Multilevel models in international business research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peterson, M.F.; Arregle, J-L.; Martin, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    Multiple-level (or mixed linear) modeling (MLM) can simultaneously test hypotheses at several levels of analysis (usually two or three), or control for confounding effects at one level while testing hypotheses at others. Advances in multi-level modeling allow increased precision in quantitative

  7. Scientists' internal models of the greenhouse effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libarkin, J. C.; Miller, H.; Thomas, S. R.

    2013-12-01

    A prior study utilized exploratory factor analysis to identify models underlying drawings of the greenhouse effect made by entering university freshmen. This analysis identified four archetype models of the greenhouse effect that appear within the college enrolling population. The current study collected drawings made by 144 geoscientists, from undergraduate geoscience majors through professionals. These participants scored highly on a standardized assessment of climate change understanding and expressed confidence in their understanding; many also indicated that they teach climate change in their courses. Although geoscientists held slightly more sophisticated greenhouse effect models than entering freshmen, very few held complete, explanatory models. As with freshmen, many scientists (44%) depict greenhouse gases in a layer in the atmosphere; 52% of participants depicted this or another layer as a physical barrier to escaping energy. In addition, 32% of participants indicated that incoming light from the Sun remains unchanged at Earth's surface, in alignment with a common model held by students. Finally, 3-20% of scientists depicted physical greenhouses, ozone, or holes in the atmosphere, all of which correspond to non-explanatory models commonly seen within students and represented in popular literature. For many scientists, incomplete models of the greenhouse effect are clearly enough to allow for reasoning about climate change. These data suggest that: 1) better representations about interdisciplinary concepts, such as the greenhouse effect, are needed for both scientist and public understanding; and 2) the scientific community needs to carefully consider how much understanding of a model is needed before necessary reasoning can occur.

  8. Improved variable reduction in partial least squares modelling by Global-Minimum Error Uninformative-Variable Elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andries, Jan P M; Vander Heyden, Yvan; Buydens, Lutgarde M C

    2017-08-22

    The calibration performance of Partial Least Squares regression (PLS) can be improved by eliminating uninformative variables. For PLS, many variable elimination methods have been developed. One is the Uninformative-Variable Elimination for PLS (UVE-PLS). However, the number of variables retained by UVE-PLS is usually still large. In UVE-PLS, variable elimination is repeated as long as the root mean squared error of cross validation (RMSECV) is decreasing. The set of variables in this first local minimum is retained. In this paper, a modification of UVE-PLS is proposed and investigated, in which UVE is repeated until no further reduction in variables is possible, followed by a search for the global RMSECV minimum. The method is called Global-Minimum Error Uninformative-Variable Elimination for PLS, denoted as GME-UVE-PLS or simply GME-UVE. After each iteration, the predictive ability of the PLS model, built with the remaining variable set, is assessed by RMSECV. The variable set with the global RMSECV minimum is then finally selected. The goal is to obtain smaller sets of variables with similar or improved predictability than those from the classical UVE-PLS method. The performance of the GME-UVE-PLS method is investigated using four data sets, i.e. a simulated set, NIR and NMR spectra, and a theoretical molecular descriptors set, resulting in twelve profile-response (X-y) calibrations. The selective and predictive performances of the models resulting from GME-UVE-PLS are statistically compared to those from UVE-PLS and 1-step UVE, one-sided paired t-tests. The results demonstrate that variable reduction with the proposed GME-UVE-PLS method, usually eliminates significantly more variables than the classical UVE-PLS, while the predictive abilities of the resulting models are better. With GME-UVE-PLS, a lower number of uninformative variables, without a chemical meaning for the response, may be retained than with UVE-PLS. The selectivity of the classical UVE method

  9. Using a Budyko Derived Index to Evaluate the Internal Hydrological Variability of Catchments in Complex Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominguez, M.

    2017-12-01

    Headwater catchments in complex terrain typically exhibit significant variations in microclimatic conditions across slopes. This microclimatic variability in turn, modifies land surface properties presumably altering the hydrologic dynamics of these catchments. The extent to which differences in microclimate and land cover dictate the partition of water and energy fluxes within a catchment is still poorly understood. In this study, we attempt to do an assessment of the effects of aspect, elevation and latitude (which are the principal factors that define microclimate conditions) on the hydrologic behavior of the hillslopes within catchments with complex terrain. Using a distributed hydrologic model on a number of catchments at different latitudes, where data is available for calibration and validation, we estimate the different components of the water balance to obtain the aridity index (AI = PET/P) and the evaporative index (EI = AET/P) of each slope for a number of years. We use Budyko's curve as a framework to characterize the inter-annual variability in the hydrologic response of the hillslopes in the studied catchments, developing a hydrologic sensitivity index (HSi) based on the relative change in Budyko's curve components (HSi=ΔAI/ΔEI). With this method, when the HSi values of a given hillslope are larger than 1 the hydrologic behavior of that part of the catchment is considered sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, while values approaching 0 would indicate the opposite. We use this approach as a diagnostic tool to discern the effect of aspect, elevation, and latitude on the hydrologic regime of the slopes in complex terrain catchments and to try to explain observed patterns of land cover conditions on these types of catchments.

  10. Modelling carbon and nitrogen turnover in variably saturated soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batlle-Aguilar, J.; Brovelli, A.; Porporato, A.; Barry, D. A.

    2009-04-01

    Natural ecosystems provide services such as ameliorating the impacts of deleterious human activities on both surface and groundwater. For example, several studies have shown that a healthy riparian ecosystem can reduce the nutrient loading of agricultural wastewater, thus protecting the receiving surface water body. As a result, in order to develop better protection strategies and/or restore natural conditions, there is a growing interest in understanding ecosystem functioning, including feedbacks and nonlinearities. Biogeochemical transformations in soils are heavily influenced by microbial decomposition of soil organic matter. Carbon and nutrient cycles are in turn strongly sensitive to environmental conditions, and primarily to soil moisture and temperature. These two physical variables affect the reaction rates of almost all soil biogeochemical transformations, including microbial and fungal activity, nutrient uptake and release from plants, etc. Soil water saturation and temperature are not constants, but vary both in space and time, thus further complicating the picture. In order to interpret field experiments and elucidate the different mechanisms taking place, numerical tools are beneficial. In this work we developed a 3D numerical reactive-transport model as an aid in the investigation the complex physical, chemical and biological interactions occurring in soils. The new code couples the USGS models (MODFLOW 2000-VSF, MT3DMS and PHREEQC) using an operator-splitting algorithm, and is a further development an existing reactive/density-dependent flow model PHWAT. The model was tested using simplified test cases. Following verification, a process-based biogeochemical reaction network describing the turnover of carbon and nitrogen in soils was implemented. Using this tool, we investigated the coupled effect of moisture content and temperature fluctuations on nitrogen and organic matter cycling in the riparian zone, in order to help understand the relative

  11. International Business Models Developed Through Brokerage Knowledge and Value Creation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Nicolaj Hannesbo; Rasmussen, Erik Stavnsager

    This paper highlights theoretically and empirically international business model decisions in networks with knowledge sharing and value creation. The paper expands the conceptual in-ternational business model framework for technology-oriented companies to include the focal firm’s network role...... and strategic fit in a global embeddedness. The brokerage role in the in-ternationalization of a network is discussed from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. From a business model and social network analysis perspective, this paper will show how firms and network grow internationally through two...

  12. Examples of EOS Variables as compared to the UMM-Var Data Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, Simon; Lynnes, Chris

    2016-01-01

    In effort to provide EOSDIS clients a way to discover and use variable data from different providers, a Unified Metadata Model for Variables is being created. This presentation gives an overview of the model and use cases we are handling.

  13. Unified models of interactions with gauge-invariant variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zet, Gheorghe

    2000-01-01

    A model of gauge theory is formulated in terms of gauge-invariant variables over a 4-dimensional space-time. Namely, we define a metric tensor g μν ( μ , ν = 0,1,2,3) starting with the components F μν a and F μν a tilde of the tensor associated to the Yang-Mills fields and its dual: g μν = 1/(3Δ 1/3 ) (ε abc F μα a F αβ b tilde F βν c ). Here Δ is a scale factor which can be chosen of a convenient form so that the theory may be self-dual or not. The components g μν are interpreted as new gauge-invariant variables. The model is applied to the case when the gauge group is SU(2). For the space-time we choose two different manifolds: (i) the space-time is R x S 3 , where R is the real line and S 3 is the three-dimensional sphere; (ii) the space-time is endowed with axial symmetry. We calculate the components g μν of the new metric for the two cases in terms of SU(2) gauge potentials. Imposing the supplementary condition that the new metric coincides with the initial metric of the space-time, we obtain the field equations (of the first order in derivatives) for the gauge fields. In addition, we determine the scale factor Δ which is introduced in the definition of g μν to ensure the property of self-duality for our SU(2) gauge theory, namely, 1/(2√g)(ε αβστ g μα g νβ F στ a = F μν a , g = det (g μν ). In the case (i) we show that the space-time R x S 3 is not compatible with a self-dual SU(2) gauge theory, but in the case (ii) the condition of self-duality is satisfied. The model developed in our work can be considered as a possible way to unification of general relativity and Yang-Mills theories. This means that the gauge theory can be formulated in the close analogy with the general relativity, i.e. the Yang-Mills equations are equivalent to Einstein equations with the right-hand side of a simple form. (authors)

  14. White dwarf models of supernovae and cataclysmic variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomoto, K.; Hashimoto, M.

    1986-01-01

    If the accreting white dwarf increases its mass to the Chandrasekhar mass, it will either explode as a Type I supernova or collapse to form a neutron star. In fact, there is a good agreement between the exploding white dwarf model for Type I supernovae and observations. We describe various types of evolution of accreting white dwarfs as a function of binary parameters (i.e,. composition, mass, and age of the white dwarf, its companion star, and mass accretion rate), and discuss the conditions for the precursors of exploding or collapsing white dwarfs, and their relevance to cataclysmic variables. Particular attention is given to helium star cataclysmics which might be the precursors of some Type I supernovae or ultrashort period x-ray binaries. Finally we present new evolutionary calculations using the updated nuclear reaction rates for the formation of O+Ne+Mg white dwarfs, and discuss the composition structure and their relevance to the model for neon novae. 61 refs., 14 figs

  15. Multidecadal Variability in Surface Albedo Feedback Across CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Adam; Flanner, Mark; Perket, Justin

    2018-02-01

    Previous studies quantify surface albedo feedback (SAF) in climate change, but few assess its variability on decadal time scales. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble data set, we calculate time evolving SAF in multiple decades from surface albedo and temperature linear regressions. Results are meaningful when temperature change exceeds 0.5 K. Decadal-scale SAF is strongly correlated with century-scale SAF during the 21st century. Throughout the 21st century, multimodel ensemble mean SAF increases from 0.37 to 0.42 W m-2 K-1. These results suggest that models' mean decadal-scale SAFs are good estimates of their century-scale SAFs if there is at least 0.5 K temperature change. Persistent SAF into the late 21st century indicates ongoing capacity for Arctic albedo decline despite there being less sea ice. If the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble results are representative of the Earth, we cannot expect decreasing Arctic sea ice extent to suppress SAF in the 21st century.

  16. A model for international border management systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duggan, Ruth Ann

    2008-09-01

    To effectively manage the security or control of its borders, a country must understand its border management activities as a system. Using its systems engineering and security foundations as a Department of Energy National Security Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories has developed such an approach to modeling and analyzing border management systems. This paper describes the basic model and its elements developed under Laboratory Directed Research and Development project 08-684.

  17. A bivariate measurement error model for semicontinuous and continuous variables: Application to nutritional epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipnis, Victor; Freedman, Laurence S; Carroll, Raymond J; Midthune, Douglas

    2016-03-01

    Semicontinuous data in the form of a mixture of a large portion of zero values and continuously distributed positive values frequently arise in many areas of biostatistics. This article is motivated by the analysis of relationships between disease outcomes and intakes of episodically consumed dietary components. An important aspect of studies in nutritional epidemiology is that true diet is unobservable and commonly evaluated by food frequency questionnaires with substantial measurement error. Following the regression calibration approach for measurement error correction, unknown individual intakes in the risk model are replaced by their conditional expectations given mismeasured intakes and other model covariates. Those regression calibration predictors are estimated using short-term unbiased reference measurements in a calibration substudy. Since dietary intakes are often "energy-adjusted," e.g., by using ratios of the intake of interest to total energy intake, the correct estimation of the regression calibration predictor for each energy-adjusted episodically consumed dietary component requires modeling short-term reference measurements of the component (a semicontinuous variable), and energy (a continuous variable) simultaneously in a bivariate model. In this article, we develop such a bivariate model, together with its application to regression calibration. We illustrate the new methodology using data from the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study (Schatzkin et al., 2001, American Journal of Epidemiology 154, 1119-1125), and also evaluate its performance in a simulation study. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Validation of an internal hardwood log defect prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Edward. Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The type, size, and location of internal defects dictate the grade and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. However, acquiring internal defect knowledge with x-ray/computed-tomography or magnetic-resonance imaging technology can be expensive both in time and cost. An alternative approach uses prediction models based on correlations among external defect indicators...

  19. A New Conceptual Model for Understanding International Students' College Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfattal, Eyad

    2016-01-01

    This study concerns the theory and practice of international marketing in higher education with the purpose of exploring a conceptual model for understanding international students' needs in the context of a four-year college in the United States. A transcendental phenomenological design was employed to investigate the essence of international…

  20. Modeling and Simulation of Variable Mass, Flexible Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobbe, Patrick A.; Matras, Alex L.; Wilson, Heath E.

    2009-01-01

    The advent of the new Ares I launch vehicle has highlighted the need for advanced dynamic analysis tools for variable mass, flexible structures. This system is composed of interconnected flexible stages or components undergoing rapid mass depletion through the consumption of solid or liquid propellant. In addition to large rigid body configuration changes, the system simultaneously experiences elastic deformations. In most applications, the elastic deformations are compatible with linear strain-displacement relationships and are typically modeled using the assumed modes technique. The deformation of the system is approximated through the linear combination of the products of spatial shape functions and generalized time coordinates. Spatial shape functions are traditionally composed of normal mode shapes of the system or even constraint modes and static deformations derived from finite element models of the system. Equations of motion for systems undergoing coupled large rigid body motion and elastic deformation have previously been derived through a number of techniques [1]. However, in these derivations, the mode shapes or spatial shape functions of the system components were considered constant. But with the Ares I vehicle, the structural characteristics of the system are changing with the mass of the system. Previous approaches to solving this problem involve periodic updates to the spatial shape functions or interpolation between shape functions based on system mass or elapsed mission time. These solutions often introduce misleading or even unstable numerical transients into the system. Plus, interpolation on a shape function is not intuitive. This paper presents an approach in which the shape functions are held constant and operate on the changing mass and stiffness matrices of the vehicle components. Each vehicle stage or component finite element model is broken into dry structure and propellant models. A library of propellant models is used to describe the

  1. Time-variable gravity potential components for optical clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voigt, C.; Denker, H.; Timmen, L.

    2016-01-01

    The latest generation of optical atomic clocks is approaching the level of one part in 10 18 in terms of frequency stability and uncertainty. For clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales, a relativistic redshift effect of the clock frequencies has to be taken into account at a corresponding uncertainty level of about 0.1 m 2 s -2 and 0.01 m in terms of gravity potential and height, respectively. Besides the predominant static part of the gravity potential, temporal variations must be considered in order to avoid systematic frequency shifts. Time-variable gravity potential components induced by tides and non-tidal mass redistributions are investigated with regard to the level of one part in 10 18 . The magnitudes and dominant time periods of the individual gravity potential contributions are investigated globally and for specific laboratory sites together with the related uncertainty estimates. The basics of the computation methods are presented along with the applied models, data sets and software. Solid Earth tides contribute by far the most dominant signal with a global maximum amplitude of 4.2 m 2 s -2 for the potential and a range (maximum-to-minimum) of up to 1.3 and 10.0 m 2 s -2 in terms of potential differences between specific laboratories over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. Amplitudes of the ocean tidal loading potential can amount up to 1.25 m 2 s -2 , while the range of the potential between specific laboratories is 0.3 and 1.1 m 2 s -2 over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. These are the only two contributors being relevant at a 10 -17 level. However, several other time-variable potential effects can particularly affect clock comparisons at the 10 -18 level. Besides solid Earth pole tides, these are non-tidal mass redistributions in the atmosphere, the oceans and the continental water storage. (authors)

  2. Enhancing the Action Research Capacity of the International Model ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... the UNCED (United Nations Conference on Environment and Development) Rio ... an international network of working models of sustainable forest management ... countries in Africa, Asia, Canada, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, ...

  3. 6th International Workshop on Model Reduction in Reactive Flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    reduction in reacting flow . Registration DateRegistration TypeFirst Name Middle NameLast Name Affiliation US State /Canadian ProvinceState/Province/R gion...Report: 6th International Workshop on Model Reduction in Reactive Flow The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the...Agreement Number: W911NF-17-1-0121 Organization: Princeton University Title: 6th International Workshop on Model Reduction in Reactive Flow Report Term

  4. Internal combustion engines - Modelling, estimation and control issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vigild, C.W.

    2001-12-01

    validated on an engine dynamometer and engine data traces are presented. The successful application of the model based controllers is then the motivation behind the research in simplified engine modelling to be presented in this dissertation. One of the objectives of this dissertation is to propose a framework for simplified modelling of internal combustion engines and selected subcomponents. This has lead to the development of a new modeiling concept for Variable Geometry turbochargers, and a simplified Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) model which can predict the temperature distribution along the exhaust gas recirculation system with unsteady flows. Furthermore, since engine combustion modelling often is carried out on a phenomenological level due to its complex nature, a new regression tool is developed which eases this modelling task. In the chapter concerning estimation, one of the most important findings is that EGR cannot be robustly controlled despite measurement of the air to fuel ratio in exhaust gas. The work closes with a presentation of a new estimation methodology which may supply a control strategy with an estimate of the actual control direction. The estimator is utilized in a control strategy which balances the intake mass flow of a twin-turbocharged V-engine. Since there exists a point of sign reversal in the VGT position-air mass flow characteristic, whose exact location is unknown, the control problem is posed with serious stability issues. These problems.have been solved with the new non-linear estimation methodology developed - a sign-reversal estimator. (au)

  5. Contemporary internal auditing practices : (new) roles and influencing variables. Evidence from extended case studies

    OpenAIRE

    G. SARENS; I. DE BEELDE

    2004-01-01

    Following the recommendation made by Rittenberg (1999), this study encompasses the broader nature of internal auditing that is evolving in practice and confirmed by the revised definition of internal auditing and the new Professional Practices Framework, both issued by the IIA in 1999. This study, based on six extended case studies, attempts to contribute to the literature by studying contemporary internal auditing practices in Belgium (assurance and / or consulting oriented), refining the in...

  6. VAM2D: Variably saturated analysis model in two dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huyakorn, P.S.; Kool, J.B.; Wu, Y.S.

    1991-10-01

    This report documents a two-dimensional finite element model, VAM2D, developed to simulate water flow and solute transport in variably saturated porous media. Both flow and transport simulation can be handled concurrently or sequentially. The formulation of the governing equations and the numerical procedures used in the code are presented. The flow equation is approximated using the Galerkin finite element method. Nonlinear soil moisture characteristics and atmospheric boundary conditions (e.g., infiltration, evaporation and seepage face), are treated using Picard and Newton-Raphson iterations. Hysteresis effects and anisotropy in the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity can be taken into account if needed. The contaminant transport simulation can account for advection, hydrodynamic dispersion, linear equilibrium sorption, and first-order degradation. Transport of a single component or a multi-component decay chain can be handled. The transport equation is approximated using an upstream weighted residual method. Several test problems are presented to verify the code and demonstrate its utility. These problems range from simple one-dimensional to complex two-dimensional and axisymmetric problems. This document has been produced as a user's manual. It contains detailed information on the code structure along with instructions for input data preparation and sample input and printed output for selected test problems. Also included are instructions for job set up and restarting procedures. 44 refs., 54 figs., 24 tabs

  7. Modeling Variable Phanerozoic Oxygen Effects on Physiology and Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Jeffrey B; Jew, Corey J; Wegner, Nicholas C

    2016-01-01

    Geochemical approximation of Earth's atmospheric O2 level over geologic time prompts hypotheses linking hyper- and hypoxic atmospheres to transformative events in the evolutionary history of the biosphere. Such correlations, however, remain problematic due to the relative imprecision of the timing and scope of oxygen change and the looseness of its overlay on the chronology of key biotic events such as radiations, evolutionary innovation, and extinctions. There are nevertheless general attributions of atmospheric oxygen concentration to key evolutionary changes among groups having a primary dependence upon oxygen diffusion for respiration. These include the occurrence of Devonian hypoxia and the accentuation of air-breathing dependence leading to the origin of vertebrate terrestriality, the occurrence of Carboniferous-Permian hyperoxia and the major radiation of early tetrapods and the origins of insect flight and gigantism, and the Mid-Late Permian oxygen decline accompanying the Permian extinction. However, because of variability between and error within different atmospheric models, there is little basis for postulating correlations outside the Late Paleozoic. Other problems arising in the correlation of paleo-oxygen with significant biological events include tendencies to ignore the role of blood pigment affinity modulation in maintaining homeostasis, the slow rates of O2 change that would have allowed for adaptation, and significant respiratory and circulatory modifications that can and do occur without changes in atmospheric oxygen. The purpose of this paper is thus to refocus thinking about basic questions central to the biological and physiological implications of O2 change over geological time.

  8. Stochastic transport models for mixing in variable-density turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakosi, J.; Ristorcelli, J. R.

    2011-11-01

    In variable-density (VD) turbulent mixing, where very-different- density materials coexist, the density fluctuations can be an order of magnitude larger than their mean. Density fluctuations are non-negligible in the inertia terms of the Navier-Stokes equation which has both quadratic and cubic nonlinearities. Very different mixing rates of different materials give rise to large differential accelerations and some fundamentally new physics that is not seen in constant-density turbulence. In VD flows material mixing is active in a sense far stronger than that applied in the Boussinesq approximation of buoyantly-driven flows: the mass fraction fluctuations are coupled to each other and to the fluid momentum. Statistical modeling of VD mixing requires accounting for basic constraints that are not important in the small-density-fluctuation passive-scalar-mixing approximation: the unit-sum of mass fractions, bounded sample space, and the highly skewed nature of the probability densities become essential. We derive a transport equation for the joint probability of mass fractions, equivalent to a system of stochastic differential equations, that is consistent with VD mixing in multi-component turbulence and consistently reduces to passive scalar mixing in constant-density flows.

  9. Variable Width Riparian Model Enhances Landscape and Watershed Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abood, S. A.; Spencer, L.

    2017-12-01

    Riparian areas are ecotones that represent about 1% of USFS administered landscape and contribute to numerous valuable ecosystem functions such as wildlife habitat, stream water quality and flows, bank stability and protection against erosion, and values related to diversity, aesthetics and recreation. Riparian zones capture the transitional area between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems with specific vegetation and soil characteristics which provide critical values/functions and are very responsive to changes in land management activities and uses. Two staff areas at the US Forest Service have coordinated on a two phase project to support the National Forests in their planning revision efforts and to address rangeland riparian business needs at the Forest Plan and Allotment Management Plan levels. The first part of the project will include a national fine scale (USGS HUC-12 digits watersheds) inventory of riparian areas on National Forest Service lands in western United States with riparian land cover, utilizing GIS capabilities and open source geospatial data. The second part of the project will include the application of riparian land cover change and assessment based on selected indicators to assess and monitor riparian areas on annual/5-year cycle basis.This approach recognizes the dynamic and transitional nature of riparian areas by accounting for hydrologic, geomorphic and vegetation data as inputs into the delineation process. The results suggest that incorporating functional variable width riparian mapping within watershed management planning can improve riparian protection and restoration. The application of Riparian Buffer Delineation Model (RBDM) approach can provide the agency Watershed Condition Framework (WCF) with observed riparian area condition on an annual basis and on multiple scales. The use of this model to map moderate to low gradient systems of sufficient width in conjunction with an understanding of the influence of distinctive landscape

  10. Efficiency of a new internal combustion engine concept with variable piston motion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorić Jovan Ž.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents simulation of working process in a new IC engine concept. The main feature of this new IC engine concept is the realization of variable movement of the piston. With this unconventional piston movement it is easy to provide variable compression ratio, variable displacement and combustion during constant volume. These advantages over standard piston mechanism are achieved through synthesis of the two pairs of non-circular gears. Presented mechanism is designed to obtain a specific motion law which provides better fuel consumption of IC engines. For this paper Ricardo/WAVE software was used, which provides a fully integrated treatment of time-dependent fluid dynamics and thermodynamics by means of onedimensional formulation. The results obtained herein include the efficiency characteristic of this new heat engine concept. The results show that combustion during constant volume, variable compression ratio and variable displacement have significant impact on improvement of fuel consumption.

  11. Self-organized Criticality Model for Ocean Internal Waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Gang; Hou Yijun; Lin Min; Qiao Fangli

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a simple spring-block model for ocean internal waves based on the self-organized criticality (SOC). The oscillations of the water blocks in the model display power-law behavior with an exponent of -2 in the frequency domain, which is similar to the current and sea water temperature spectra in the actual ocean and the universal Garrett and Munk deep ocean internal wave model [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 2 (1972) 225; J. Geophys. Res. 80 (1975) 291]. The influence of the ratio of the driving force to the spring coefficient to SOC behaviors in the model is also discussed. (general)

  12. The Association between Tax Structure and Cigarette Price Variability: Findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Fong, Geoffrey T; Thompson, Mary; O’Connor, Richard J

    2015-01-01

    Background Recent studies have shown that more opportunities exist for tax avoidance when cigarette excise tax structure departs from a uniform specific structure. However, the association between tax structure and cigarette price variability has not been thoroughly studied in the existing literature. Objective To examine how cigarette tax structure is associated with price variability. The variability of self-reported prices is measured using the ratios of differences between higher and lower prices to the median price such as the IQR-to-median ratio. Methods We used survey data taken from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Project in 17 countries to conduct the analysis. Cigarette prices were derived using individual purchase information and aggregated to price variability measures for each surveyed country and wave. The effect of tax structures on price variability was estimated using Generalised Estimating Equations after adjusting for year and country attributes. Findings Our study provides empirical evidence of a relationship between tax structure and cigarette price variability. We find that, compared to the specific uniform tax structure, mixed uniform and tiered (specific, ad valorem or mixed) structures are associated with greater price variability (p≤0.01). Moreover, while a greater share of the specific component in total excise taxes is associated with lower price variability (p≤0.05), a tiered tax structure is associated with greater price variability (p≤0.01). The results suggest that a uniform and specific tax structure is the most effective tax structure for reducing tobacco consumption and prevalence by limiting price variability and decreasing opportunities for tax avoidance. PMID:25855641

  13. Modeling and assessing international climate financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

    2016-06-01

    Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

  14. Model Parameter Variability for Enhanced Anaerobic Bioremediation of DNAPL Source Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, X.; Gerhard, J. I.; Barry, D. A.

    2005-12-01

    The objective of the Source Area Bioremediation (SABRE) project, an international collaboration of twelve companies, two government agencies and three research institutions, is to evaluate the performance of enhanced anaerobic bioremediation for the treatment of chlorinated ethene source areas containing dense, non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPL). This 4-year, 5.7 million dollars research effort focuses on a pilot-scale demonstration of enhanced bioremediation at a trichloroethene (TCE) DNAPL field site in the United Kingdom, and includes a significant program of laboratory and modelling studies. Prior to field implementation, a large-scale, multi-laboratory microcosm study was performed to determine the optimal system properties to support dehalogenation of TCE in site soil and groundwater. This statistically-based suite of experiments measured the influence of key variables (electron donor, nutrient addition, bioaugmentation, TCE concentration and sulphate concentration) in promoting the reductive dechlorination of TCE to ethene. As well, a comprehensive biogeochemical numerical model was developed for simulating the anaerobic dehalogenation of chlorinated ethenes. An appropriate (reduced) version of this model was combined with a parameter estimation method based on fitting of the experimental results. Each of over 150 individual microcosm calibrations involved matching predicted and observed time-varying concentrations of all chlorinated compounds. This study focuses on an analysis of this suite of fitted model parameter values. This includes determining the statistical correlation between parameters typically employed in standard Michaelis-Menten type rate descriptions (e.g., maximum dechlorination rates, half-saturation constants) and the key experimental variables. The analysis provides insight into the degree to which aqueous phase TCE and cis-DCE inhibit dechlorination of less-chlorinated compounds. Overall, this work provides a database of the numerical

  15. Stratified flows with variable density: mathematical modelling and numerical challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murillo, Javier; Navas-Montilla, Adrian

    2017-04-01

    Stratified flows appear in a wide variety of fundamental problems in hydrological and geophysical sciences. They may involve from hyperconcentrated floods carrying sediment causing collapse, landslides and debris flows, to suspended material in turbidity currents where turbulence is a key process. Also, in stratified flows variable horizontal density is present. Depending on the case, density varies according to the volumetric concentration of different components or species that can represent transported or suspended materials or soluble substances. Multilayer approaches based on the shallow water equations provide suitable models but are not free from difficulties when moving to the numerical resolution of the governing equations. Considering the variety of temporal and spatial scales, transfer of mass and energy among layers may strongly differ from one case to another. As a consequence, in order to provide accurate solutions, very high order methods of proved quality are demanded. Under these complex scenarios it is necessary to observe that the numerical solution provides the expected order of accuracy but also converges to the physically based solution, which is not an easy task. To this purpose, this work will focus in the use of Energy balanced augmented solvers, in particular, the Augmented Roe Flux ADER scheme. References: J. Murillo , P. García-Navarro, Wave Riemann description of friction terms in unsteady shallow flows: Application to water and mud/debris floods. J. Comput. Phys. 231 (2012) 1963-2001. J. Murillo B. Latorre, P. García-Navarro. A Riemann solver for unsteady computation of 2D shallow flows with variable density. J. Comput. Phys.231 (2012) 4775-4807. A. Navas-Montilla, J. Murillo, Energy balanced numerical schemes with very high order. The Augmented Roe Flux ADER scheme. Application to the shallow water equations, J. Comput. Phys. 290 (2015) 188-218. A. Navas-Montilla, J. Murillo, Asymptotically and exactly energy balanced augmented flux

  16. Simulation-Based Internal Models for Safer Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Blum

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we explore the potential of mobile robots with simulation-based internal models for safety in highly dynamic environments. We propose a robot with a simulation of itself, other dynamic actors and its environment, inside itself. Operating in real time, this simulation-based internal model is able to look ahead and predict the consequences of both the robot’s own actions and those of the other dynamic actors in its vicinity. Hence, the robot continuously modifies its own actions in order to actively maintain its own safety while also achieving its goal. Inspired by the problem of how mobile robots could move quickly and safely through crowds of moving humans, we present experimental results which compare the performance of our internal simulation-based controller with a purely reactive approach as a proof-of-concept study for the practical use of simulation-based internal models.

  17. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Knoxville, TN (United States); Marcy, Cara [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Sims, Ryan [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Stenhouse, Jeb [US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States); Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision-makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators — primarily wind and solar photovoltaics — the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. This report summarizes the analyses and model experiments that were conducted as part of two workshops on modeling VRE for national-scale capacity expansion models. It discusses the various methods for treating VRE among four modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report reviews the findings from the two workshops and emphasizes the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making. This research is intended to inform the energy modeling community on the modeling of variable renewable resources, and is not intended to advocate for or against any particular energy technologies, resources, or policies.

  18. Estimating net present value variability for deterministic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groenendaal, W.J.H.

    1995-01-01

    For decision makers the variability in the net present value (NPV) of an investment project is an indication of the project's risk. So-called risk analysis is one way to estimate this variability. However, risk analysis requires knowledge about the stochastic character of the inputs. For large,

  19. The International Reference Ionosphere 2012 – a model of international collaboration☆

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilitza Dieter

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI project was established jointly by the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR and the International Union of Radio Science (URSI in the late sixties with the goal to develop an international standard for the specification of plasma parameters in the Earth’s ionosphere. COSPAR needed such a specification for the evaluation of environmental effects on spacecraft and experiments in space, and URSI for radiowave propagation studies and applications. At the request of COSPAR and URSI, IRI was developed as a data-based model to avoid the uncertainty of theory-based models which are only as good as the evolving theoretical understanding. Being based on most of the available and reliable observations of the ionospheric plasma from the ground and from space, IRI describes monthly averages of electron density, electron temperature, ion temperature, ion composition, and several additional parameters in the altitude range from 60 km to 2000 km. A working group of about 50 international ionospheric experts is in charge of developing and improving the IRI model. Over time as new data became available and new modeling techniques emerged, steadily improved editions of the IRI model have been published. This paper gives a brief history of the IRI project and describes the latest version of the model, IRI-2012. It also briefly discusses efforts to develop a real-time IRI model. The IRI homepage is at http://IRImodel.org.

  20. High performance continuously variable transmission control through robust-control-relevant model validation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oomen, T.A.E.; Meulen, van der S.H.

    2013-01-01

    Optimal operation of continuously variable transmissions (CVTs) is essential to meet tightening emission and fuel consumption requirements. This is achieved by accurately tracking a prescribed transmission ratio reference and simultaneously optimizing the internal efficiency of the CVT. To reduce

  1. International Competition and Inequality: A Generalized Ricardian Model

    OpenAIRE

    Adolfo Figueroa

    2014-01-01

    Why does the gap in real wage rates persist between the First World and the Third World after so many years of increasing globalization? The standard neoclassical trade model predicts that real wage rates will be equalized with international trade, whereas the standard Ricardian trade model does not. Facts are thus consistent with the Ricardian model. However, this model leaves undetermined income distribution. The objective of this paper is to fill this gap by developing a generalized Ricard...

  2. Application of soft computing based hybrid models in hydrological variables modeling: a comprehensive review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahimi, Farzad; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher; El-shafie, Ahmed

    2017-05-01

    Since the middle of the twentieth century, artificial intelligence (AI) models have been used widely in engineering and science problems. Water resource variable modeling and prediction are the most challenging issues in water engineering. Artificial neural network (ANN) is a common approach used to tackle this problem by using viable and efficient models. Numerous ANN models have been successfully developed to achieve more accurate results. In the current review, different ANN models in water resource applications and hydrological variable predictions are reviewed and outlined. In addition, recent hybrid models and their structures, input preprocessing, and optimization techniques are discussed and the results are compared with similar previous studies. Moreover, to achieve a comprehensive view of the literature, many articles that applied ANN models together with other techniques are included. Consequently, coupling procedure, model evaluation, and performance comparison of hybrid models with conventional ANN models are assessed, as well as, taxonomy and hybrid ANN models structures. Finally, current challenges and recommendations for future researches are indicated and new hybrid approaches are proposed.

  3. Modeling Complex Nesting Structures in International Business Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Nielsen, Sabina

    2013-01-01

    hierarchical random coefficient models (RCM) are often used for the analysis of multilevel phenomena, IB issues often result in more complex nested structures. This paper illustrates how cross-nested multilevel modeling allowing for predictor variables and cross-level interactions at multiple (crossed) levels...

  4. Thermal resistance of a convectively cooled plate with applied heat flux and variable internal heat generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkataraman, N.S.; Cardoso, H.P.; Oliveira Filho, O.B. de

    1981-01-01

    The conductive heat transfer in a rectangular plate with nonuniform internal heat generation, with one end convectively cooled and a part of the opposite end subjected to external heat flux is considered. The remaining part of this end as well as the other two sides are thermally insulated. The governing differential equation is solved by a finite difference scheme. The variation of the thermal resistance with Biot modulus, the plate geometry, the internal heat generation parameter and the type of profile of internal heat generation is discussed. (author) [pt

  5. Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing, and models: Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, James J.; Dettinger, M.D.; Gehrke, F.; McIntire, T.J.; Hufford, Gary L.

    2004-01-01

    Accurate prediction of available water supply from snowmelt is needed if the myriad of human, environmental, agricultural, and industrial demands for water are to be satisfied, especially given legislatively imposed conditions on its allocation. Robust retrievals of hydrologic basin model variables (e.g., insolation or areal extent of snow cover) provide several advantages over the current operational use of either point measurements or parameterizations to help to meet this requirement. Insolation can be provided at hourly time scales (or better if needed during rapid melt events associated with flooding) and at 1-km spatial resolution. These satellite-based retrievals incorporate the effects of highly variable (both in space and time) and unpredictable cloud cover on estimates of insolation. The insolation estimates are further adjusted for the effects of basin topography using a high-resolution digital elevation model prior to model input. Simulations of two Sierra Nevada rivers in the snowmelt seasons of 1998 and 1999 indicate that even the simplest improvements in modeled insolation can improve snowmelt simulations, with 10%-20% reductions in root-mean-square errors. Direct retrieval of the areal extent of snow cover may mitigate the need to rely entirely on internal calculations of this variable, a reliance that can yield large errors that are difficult to correct until long after the season is complete and that often leads to persistent underestimates or overestimates of the volumes of the water to operational reservoirs. Agencies responsible for accurately predicting available water resources from the melt of snowpack [e.g., both federal (the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers) and state (the California Department of Water Resources)] can benefit by incorporating concepts developed herein into their operational forecasting procedures. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

  6. Climate variability and international migration: the importance of the agricultural linkage

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cai, R.; Feng, S.; Oppenheimer, M.; Pytliková, Mariola

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 79, September (2016), s. 135-151 ISSN 0095-0696 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : international migration * temperature * agricultural productivity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.305, year: 2016

  7. Climate variability and international migration: the importance of the agricultural linkage

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cai, R.; Feng, S.; Oppenheimer, M.; Pytliková, Mariola

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 79, September (2016), s. 135-151 ISSN 0095-0696 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : international migration * temperature * agricultural productivity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.305, year: 2016

  8. Familiarity and within-person facial variability: the importance of the internal and external features

    OpenAIRE

    Kramer, R. S. S.; Manesi, Z.; Towler, A.; Reynolds, M. G.; Burton, A. M.

    2018-01-01

    As faces become familiar, we come to rely more on their internal features for recognition and matching tasks. Here, we assess whether this same pattern is also observed for a card sorting task. Participants sorted photos showing either the full face, only the internal features, or only the external features into multiple piles, one pile per identity. In Experiments 1 and 2, we showed the standard advantage for familiar faces—sorting was more accurate and showed very few errors in comparison w...

  9. An extended gravity model with substitution applied to international trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bikker, J.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06912261X

    The traditional gravity model has been applied many times to international trade flows, especially in order to analyze trade creation and trade diversion. However, there are two fundamental objections to the model: it cannot describe substitutions between flows and it lacks a cogent theoretical

  10. Familiarity and Within-Person Facial Variability: The Importance of the Internal and External Features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Robin S S; Manesi, Zoi; Towler, Alice; Reynolds, Michael G; Burton, A Mike

    2018-01-01

    As faces become familiar, we come to rely more on their internal features for recognition and matching tasks. Here, we assess whether this same pattern is also observed for a card sorting task. Participants sorted photos showing either the full face, only the internal features, or only the external features into multiple piles, one pile per identity. In Experiments 1 and 2, we showed the standard advantage for familiar faces-sorting was more accurate and showed very few errors in comparison with unfamiliar faces. However, for both familiar and unfamiliar faces, sorting was less accurate for external features and equivalent for internal and full faces. In Experiment 3, we asked whether external features can ever be used to make an accurate sort. Using familiar faces and instructions on the number of identities present, we nevertheless found worse performance for the external in comparison with the internal features, suggesting that less identity information was available in the former. Taken together, we show that full faces and internal features are similarly informative with regard to identity. In comparison, external features contain less identity information and produce worse card sorting performance. This research extends current thinking on the shift in focus, both in attention and importance, toward the internal features and away from the external features as familiarity with a face increases.

  11. The Integration of Continuous and Discrete Latent Variable Models: Potential Problems and Promising Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Daniel J.; Curran, Patrick J.

    2004-01-01

    Structural equation mixture modeling (SEMM) integrates continuous and discrete latent variable models. Drawing on prior research on the relationships between continuous and discrete latent variable models, the authors identify 3 conditions that may lead to the estimation of spurious latent classes in SEMM: misspecification of the structural model,…

  12. Selecting candidate predictor variables for the modelling of post ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: The objective of this project was to determine the variables most likely to be associated with post- .... (as defined subjectively by the research team) in global .... ed on their lack of knowledge of wealth scoring tools. ... HIV serology.

  13. Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

    2016-06-01

    Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

  14. Modelling for Fuel Optimal Control of a Variable Compression Engine

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Ylva

    2007-01-01

    Variable compression engines are a mean to meet the demand on lower fuel consumption. A high compression ratio results in high engine efficiency, but also increases the knock tendency. On conventional engines with fixed compression ratio, knock is avoided by retarding the ignition angle. The variable compression engine offers an extra dimension in knock control, since both ignition angle and compression ratio can be adjusted. The central question is thus for what combination of compression ra...

  15. Exact solutions to a nonlinear dispersive model with variable coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin Jun; Lai Shaoyong; Qing Yin

    2009-01-01

    A mathematical technique based on an auxiliary differential equation and the symbolic computation system Maple is employed to investigate a prototypical and nonlinear K(n, n) equation with variable coefficients. The exact solutions to the equation are constructed analytically under various circumstances. It is shown that the variable coefficients and the exponent appearing in the equation determine the quantitative change in the physical structures of the solutions.

  16. Predicting Internalizing and Externalizing Symptoms in Children with ASD: Evaluation of a Contextual Model of Parental Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRae, Elizabeth M.; Stoppelbein, Laura; O'Kelley, Sarah E.; Fite, Paula; Greening, Leilani

    2018-01-01

    Parental adjustment, parenting behaviors, and child routines have been linked to internalizing and externalizing child behavior. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate a comprehensive model examining relations among these variables in children with ASD and their parents. Based on Sameroff's Transactional Model of Development (Sameroff…

  17. Modeling and designing of variable-period and variable-pole-number undulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Davidyuk

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The concept of permanent-magnet variable-period undulator (VPU was proposed several years ago and has found few implementations so far. The VPUs have some advantages as compared with conventional undulators, e.g., a wider range of radiation wavelength tuning and the option to increase the number of poles for shorter periods. Both these advantages will be realized in the VPU under development now at Budker INP. In this paper, we present the results of 2D and 3D magnetic field simulations and discuss some design features of this VPU.

  18. Using Enthalpy as a Prognostic Variable in Atmospheric Modelling with Variable Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-14

    Sela, personal communication, 2005). These terms are also routinely neglected in models. In models with a limited number of gaseous tracers, such as...so-called energy- exchange term (second term on the left- hand side) in Equation (5). The finite-difference schemes in existing atmospheric models have...equation for the sum of enthalpy and kinetic energy of horizontal motion is solved. This eliminates the energy- exchange term and automatically

  19. Variability of LD50 Values from Rat Oral Acute Toxicity Studies: Implications for Alternative Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alternative models developed for estimating acute systemic toxicity are generally evaluated using in vivo LD50 values. However, in vivo acute systemic toxicity studies can produce variable results, even when conducted according to accepted test guidelines. This variability can ma...

  20. The role of individual and social variables in predicting body dissatisfaction and eating disorder symptoms among Iranian adolescent girls: an expanding of the tripartite influence model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shima Shahyad

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to examine the causal relationships between psychological and social factors, being independent variables and body image dissatisfaction plus symptoms of eating disorders as dependent variables through the mediation of social comparison and thin-ideal internalization. To conduct the study, 477 high-school students from Tehran were recruited by method of cluster sampling. Next, they filled out Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale (RSES, Physical Appearance Comparison Scale (PACS, Self-Concept Clarity Scale (SCCS, Appearance Perfectionism Scale (APS, Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI, Multidimensional Body Self Relations Questionnaire (MBSRQ and Sociocultural Attitudes towards Appearance Questionnaire (SATAQ-4. In the end, collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Findings showed that the assumed model perfectly fitted the data after modification and as a result, all the path-coefficients of latent variables (except for the path between self-esteem and thin-ideal internalization were statistically significant (p<0.05. Also, in this model, 75% of scores' distribution of body dissatisfaction was explained through psychological variables, socio-cultural variables, social comparison and internalization of the thin ideal. The results of the present study provid experimental basis for the confirmation of proposed causal model. The combination of psychological, social and cultural variables could efficiently predict body image dissatisfaction of young girls in Iran. Key Words: Thin-ideal Internalization, Social comparison, Body image dissatisfaction, mediating effects model, eating disorder symptoms, psychological factors.

  1. Obligations, internalization, and excuse making: integrating the triangle model and self-determination theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldon, Kennon M; Schachtman, Todd R

    2007-04-01

    Schlenker's triangle model (Schlenker, Britt, Pennington, Murphy, & Doherty, 1994, Schlenker, Pontari, & Christopher, 2001) identifies three excuses people use to avoid taking responsibility after failure: that one had no control in the situation, that the obligation was unclear, and that it was not really one's obligation. Three retrospective studies tested the presumed negative association between excuse making and responsibility taking. The studies also examined the effects of self-determination theory's concept of motivational internalization (Deci & Ryan, 2000) upon these variables. A complex but replicable pattern emerged, such that responsibility taking and motivational internalization correlated with adaptive outcomes such as future commitment and positive expectancy and excuse making did not. Of particular interest, perceiving that the person levying the obligation internalized motivation predicted responsibility taking, in all three studies. Implications for the triangle model, as well as for theories of maturity and personality development, are considered.

  2. Internal Motion Estimation by Internal-external Motion Modeling for Lung Cancer Radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Haibin; Zhong, Zichun; Yang, Yiwei; Chen, Jiawei; Zhou, Linghong; Zhen, Xin; Gu, Xuejun

    2018-02-27

    The aim of this study is to develop an internal-external correlation model for internal motion estimation for lung cancer radiotherapy. Deformation vector fields that characterize the internal-external motion are obtained by respectively registering the internal organ meshes and external surface meshes from the 4DCT images via a recently developed local topology preserved non-rigid point matching algorithm. A composite matrix is constructed by combing the estimated internal phasic DVFs with external phasic and directional DVFs. Principle component analysis is then applied to the composite matrix to extract principal motion characteristics, and generate model parameters to correlate the internal-external motion. The proposed model is evaluated on a 4D NURBS-based cardiac-torso (NCAT) synthetic phantom and 4DCT images from five lung cancer patients. For tumor tracking, the center of mass errors of the tracked tumor are 0.8(±0.5)mm/0.8(±0.4)mm for synthetic data, and 1.3(±1.0)mm/1.2(±1.2)mm for patient data in the intra-fraction/inter-fraction tracking, respectively. For lung tracking, the percent errors of the tracked contours are 0.06(±0.02)/0.07(±0.03) for synthetic data, and 0.06(±0.02)/0.06(±0.02) for patient data in the intra-fraction/inter-fraction tracking, respectively. The extensive validations have demonstrated the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed model in motion tracking for both the tumor and the lung in lung cancer radiotherapy.

  3. Does ownership affect the variability of the production process? Evidence from international courier services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hsieh, C.; Lazzarini, S.G.; Nickerson, J.A.; Laurini, M.

    2010-01-01

    A firm often must ensure that products or services it produces match customer expectations. We define variability as any deviation in a production process yielding products or services whose attributes differ from the firm's stated target specifications. Firms pursuing products marked by low

  4. The modulation of EEG variability between internally- and externally-driven cognitive states varies with maturation and task performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessie M H Szostakiwskyj

    Full Text Available Increasing evidence suggests that brain signal variability is an important measure of brain function reflecting information processing capacity and functional integrity. In this study, we examined how maturation from childhood to adulthood affects the magnitude and spatial extent of state-to-state transitions in brain signal variability, and how this relates to cognitive performance. We looked at variability changes between resting-state and task (a symbol-matching task with three levels of difficulty, and within trial (fixation, post-stimulus, and post-response. We calculated variability with multiscale entropy (MSE, and additionally examined spectral power density (SPD from electroencephalography (EEG in children aged 8-14, and in adults aged 18-33. Our results suggest that maturation is characterized by increased local information processing (higher MSE at fine temporal scales and decreased long-range interactions with other neural populations (lower MSE at coarse temporal scales. Children show MSE changes that are similar in magnitude, but greater in spatial extent when transitioning between internally- and externally-driven brain states. Additionally, we found that in children, greater changes in task difficulty were associated with greater magnitude of modulation in MSE. Our results suggest that the interplay between maturational and state-to-state changes in brain signal variability manifest across different spatial and temporal scales, and influence information processing capacity in the brain.

  5. STABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS IN LEADERSHIP MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jin ZHANG; Shouyang WANG; Lei ZU

    2008-01-01

    International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) are a form of cooperation ratified by countries which can improve the management of shared environmental resources. The authors analyze the stability of International Environmental Agreements in leadership model. In 2006, Diamantoudi & Sartzetakis found that a stable coalition consists of either 2, 3, or 4 members if the number of countries is greater than 4. Their model is reconsidered. It is shown that the size of stable IEAs decreases from 3 to 2 when the total number of countries involved increases. However, a situation that can guarantee 4 to be the size of stable IEAs could not be found.

  6. A Latent-Variable Causal Model of Faculty Reputational Ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Suzanne; Wolfle, Lee M.

    A reanalysis was conducted of Saunier's research (1985) on sources of variation in the National Research Council (NRC) reputational ratings of university faculty. Saunier conducted a stepwise regression analysis using 12 predictor variables. Due to problems with multicollinearity and because of the atheoretical nature of stepwise regression,…

  7. Instrumental variables estimation under a structural Cox model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Nørbo Sørensen, Ditte; Vansteelandt, Stijn

    2017-01-01

    Instrumental variable (IV) analysis is an increasingly popular tool for inferring the effect of an exposure on an outcome, as witnessed by the growing number of IV applications in epidemiology, for instance. The majority of IV analyses of time-to-event endpoints are, however, dominated by heurist...

  8. Variability of four-dimensional computed tomography patient models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sonke, Jan-Jakob; Lebesque, Joos; van Herk, Marcel

    2008-01-01

    PURPOSE: To quantify the interfractional variability in lung tumor trajectory and mean position during the course of radiation therapy. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Repeat four-dimensional (4D) cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans (median, nine scans/patient) routinely acquired during the course of

  9. Application of a user-friendly comprehensive circulatory model for estimation of hemodynamic and ventricular variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferrari, G.; Kozarski, M.; Gu, Y. J.; De Lazzari, C.; Di Molfetta, A.; Palko, K. J.; Zielinski, K.; Gorczynska, K.; Darowski, M.; Rakhorst, G.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: Application of a comprehensive, user-friendly, digital computer circulatory model to estimate hemodynamic and ventricular variables. Methods: The closed-loop lumped parameter circulatory model represents the circulation at the level of large vessels. A variable elastance model reproduces

  10. Variable Renewable Energy in Long-Term Planning Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Frew, Bethany A. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu T. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sun, Yinong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Blanford, Geoffrey [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Young, David [Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (United States); Marcy, Cara [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Namovicz, Chris [Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (United States); Edelman, Risa [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Meroney, Bill [Environmental Protection Agency; Sims, Ryan [Environmental Protection Agency; Stenhouse, Jeb [Environmental Protection Agency; Donohoo-Vallett, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

    2017-11-03

    Long-term capacity expansion models of the U.S. electricity sector have long been used to inform electric sector stakeholders and decision makers. With the recent surge in variable renewable energy (VRE) generators - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - the need to appropriately represent VRE generators in these long-term models has increased. VRE generators are especially difficult to represent for a variety of reasons, including their variability, uncertainty, and spatial diversity. To assess current best practices, share methods and data, and identify future research needs for VRE representation in capacity expansion models, four capacity expansion modeling teams from the Electric Power Research Institute, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted two workshops of VRE modeling for national-scale capacity expansion models. The workshops covered a wide range of VRE topics, including transmission and VRE resource data, VRE capacity value, dispatch and operational modeling, distributed generation, and temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of the workshops were both to better understand these topics and to improve the representation of VRE across the suite of models. Given these goals, each team incorporated model updates and performed additional analyses between the first and second workshops. This report summarizes the analyses and model 'experiments' that were conducted as part of these workshops as well as the various methods for treating VRE among the four modeling teams. The report also reviews the findings and learnings from the two workshops. We emphasize the areas where there is still need for additional research and development on analysis tools to incorporate VRE into long-term planning and decision-making.

  11. Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in Electric Power Markets: Best Practices from International Experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cochran, J.; Bird, L.; Heeter, J.; Arent, D. A.

    2012-04-01

    Many countries -- reflecting very different geographies, markets, and power systems -- are successfully managing high levels of variable renewable energy on the electric grid, including that from wind and solar energy. This study documents the diverse approaches to effective integration of variable renewable energy among six countries -- Australia (South Australia), Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Spain, and the United States (Western region-Colorado and Texas)-- and summarizes policy best practices that energy ministers and other stakeholders can pursue to ensure that electricity markets and power systems can effectively coevolve with increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy. Each country has crafted its own combination of policies, market designs, and system operations to achieve the system reliability and flexibility needed to successfully integrate renewables. Notwithstanding this diversity, the approaches taken by the countries studied all coalesce around five strategic areas: lead public engagement, particularly for new transmission; coordinate and integrate planning; develop rules for market evolution that enable system flexibility; expand access to diverse resources and geographic footprint of operations; and improve system operations. The ability to maintain a broad ecosystem perspective, to organize and make available the wealth of experiences, and to ensure a clear path from analysis to enactment should be the primary focus going forward.

  12. Modelling and Multi-Variable Control of Refrigeration Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Lars Finn Slot; Holm, J. R.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper a dynamic model of a 1:1 refrigeration system is presented. The main modelling effort has been concentrated on a lumped parameter model of a shell and tube condenser. The model has shown good resemblance with experimental data from a test rig, regarding as well the static as the dyn......In this paper a dynamic model of a 1:1 refrigeration system is presented. The main modelling effort has been concentrated on a lumped parameter model of a shell and tube condenser. The model has shown good resemblance with experimental data from a test rig, regarding as well the static...... as the dynamic behavior. Based on this model the effects of the cross couplings has been examined. The influence of the cross couplings on the achievable control performance has been investigated. A MIMO controller is designed and the performance is compared with the control performance achieved by using...

  13. Parenting Internalization and Correlations Between Parenting, Sentiments, and Self-satisfaction Variables in Adolescence and Adulthood

    OpenAIRE

    Breslavs, Gershons; Г.М. Бреслав

    2008-01-01

    The transition from adolescence to adulthood is currently attracting increased attention in developmental psychology. According to Vygotsky, Bronfenbrenner, Erikson and Bruner’s developmental theories, increasing autonomy and self-concept development imply that relationships between young adults and parents change according to the internalization of this relationship and the development of new traits. Thus, different changes can be expected in the links between parental attitudes or style and...

  14. Internal combustion engine with rotary valve assembly having variable intake valve timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Craig N.; Cross, Paul C.

    1995-01-01

    An internal combustion engine has rotary valves associated with movable shutters operable to vary the closing of intake air/fuel port sections to obtain peak volumetric efficiency over the entire range of speed of the engine. The shutters are moved automatically by a control mechanism that is responsive to the RPM of the engine. A foot-operated lever associated with the control mechanism is also used to move the shutters between their open and closed positions.

  15. Initiatives in national and international collaborations at Variable Energy Cyclotron Centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viyogi, Yogendra Pathak; Chakrabarti, Alok

    2008-01-01

    Over the last two decades VECC scientists, under the leadership of their director Bikash Sinha, have pursued experimental physics studies under international collaboration programmes, which would not have been possible with the existing facilities at home. The collaboration extended from RIKEN (Japan) in the east to CERN (Switzerland) in the west. It spanned the energy scales from a few tens of MeV per nucleon to several hundred GeV per nucleon and the physics topics on one extreme being the structure of exotic nuclei and their decay modes and on other extreme being the phase transition of hadronic matter and the formation of quark gluon plasma. The dynamic leadership of Dr. Sinha not only helped to shed the initial inhibitions towards such activities, going beyond the national frontiers, but also gave a new dimension to the experimental physics research in the country. It helped to organize an Indian team of scientists from various national institutes and universities. It paved way for full scale funding of the projects and set the trend that enabled many other Indian groups to join several international collaborations in various fields. Here we reflect on the evolution of these national and international collaboration programmes and the physics, technological and sociological benefits resulting from these activities. (author)

  16. A Novel Approach to model EPIC variable background

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marelli, M.; De Luca, A.; Salvetti, D.; Belfiore, A.

    2017-10-01

    One of the main aim of the EXTraS (Exploring the X-ray Transient and variable Sky) project is to characterise the variability of serendipitous XMM-Newton sources within each single observation. Unfortunately, 164 Ms out of the 774 Ms of cumulative exposure considered (21%) are badly affected by soft proton flares, hampering any classical analysis of field sources. De facto, the latest releases of the 3XMM catalog, as well as most of the analysis in literature, simply exclude these 'high background' periods from analysis. We implemented a novel SAS-indipendent approach to produce background-subtracted light curves, which allows to treat the case of very faint sources and very bright proton flares. EXTraS light curves of 3XMM-DR5 sources will be soon released to the community, together with new tools we are developing.

  17. Urn model for products’ shares in international trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbier, Matthieu; Lee, D.-S.

    2017-12-01

    International trade fluxes evolve as countries revise their portfolios of trade products towards economic development. Accordingly products’ shares in international trade vary with time, reflecting the transfer of capital between distinct industrial sectors. Here we analyze the share of hundreds of product categories in world trade for four decades and find a scaling law obeyed by the annual variation of product share, which informs us of how capital flows and interacts over the product space. A model of stochastic transfer of capital between products based on the observed scaling relation is proposed and shown to reproduce exactly the empirical share distribution. The model allows analytic solutions as well as numerical simulations, which predict a pseudo-condensation of capital onto few product categories and when it will occur. At the individual level, our model finds certain products unpredictable, the excess or deficient growth of which with respect to the model prediction is shown to be correlated with the nature of goods.

  18. International collaborative fire modeling project (ICFMP). Summary of benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, Marina; Klein-Hessling, Walter; Dreisbach, Jason; McGrattan, Kevin; Miles, Stewart; Plys, Martin; Riese, Olaf

    2008-09-01

    This document was developed in the frame of the 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' (ICFMP). The objective of this collaborative project is to share the knowledge and resources of various organizations to evaluate and improve the state of the art of fire models for use in nuclear power plant fire safety, fire hazard analysis and fire risk assessment. The project is divided into two phases. The objective of the first phase is to evaluate the capabilities of current fire models for fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. The second phase will extend the validation database of those models and implement beneficial improvements to the models that are identified in the first phase of ICFMP. In the first phase, more than 20 expert institutions from six countries were represented in the collaborative project. This Summary Report gives an overview on the results of the first phase of the international collaborative project. The main objective of the project was to evaluate the capability of fire models to analyze a variety of fire scenarios typical for nuclear power plants (NPP). The evaluation of the capability of fire models to analyze these scenarios was conducted through a series of in total five international Benchmark Exercises. Different types of models were used by the participating expert institutions from five countries. The technical information that will be useful for fire model users, developers and further experts is summarized in this document. More detailed information is provided in the corresponding technical reference documents for the ICFMP Benchmark Exercises No. 1 to 5. The objective of these exercises was not to compare the capabilities and strengths of specific models, address issues specific to a model, nor to recommend specific models over others. This document is not intended to provide guidance to users of fire models. Guidance on the use of fire models is currently being

  19. A comprehensive gaze stabilization controller based on cerebellar internal models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vannucci, Lorenzo; Falotico, Egidio; Tolu, Silvia

    2017-01-01

    . The VOR works in conjunction with the opto-kinetic reflex (OKR), which is a visual feedback mechanism that allows to move the eye at the same speed as the observed scene. Together they keep the image stationary on the retina. In this work we implement on a humanoid robot a model of gaze stabilization...... based on the coordination of VCR and VOR and OKR. The model, inspired by neuroscientific cerebellar theories, is provided with learning and adaptation capabilities based on internal models. We present the results for the gaze stabilization model on three sets of experiments conducted on the SABIAN robot...

  20. Transforming Internal Activities of Business Process Models to Services Compositions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dirgahayu, Teduh; Quartel, Dick; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Mostefaoui, S.K.; Maamar, Z.; Ferreira Pires, L.; Hammoudi, S.; Rinderle-Ma, S.; Sadiq, S.; Schulz, K.

    As a service composition language, BPEL imposes as constraint that a business process model should consist only of activities for interacting with other business processes. BPEL provides limited support for implementing internal activities, i.e. activities that are performed by a single business

  1. Model tracking dual stochastic controller design under irregular internal noises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jong Bok; Heo, Hoon; Cho, Yun Hyun; Ji, Tae Young

    2006-01-01

    Although many methods about the control of irregular external noise have been introduced and implemented, it is still necessary to design a controller that will be more effective and efficient methods to exclude for various noises. Accumulation of errors due to model tracking, internal noises (thermal noise, shot noise and l/f noise) that come from elements such as resistor, diode and transistor etc. in the circuit system and numerical errors due to digital process often destabilize the system and reduce the system performance. New stochastic controller is adopted to remove those noises using conventional controller simultaneously. Design method of a model tracking dual controller is proposed to improve the stability of system while removing external and internal noises. In the study, design process of the model tracking dual stochastic controller is introduced that improves system performance and guarantees robustness under irregular internal noises which can be created internally. The model tracking dual stochastic controller utilizing F-P-K stochastic control technique developed earlier is implemented to reveal its performance via simulation

  2. Trade and compliance cost model in the international supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arsyida, Tuty; van Delft, Selma; Rukanova, B.D.; Tan, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Trade costs for international supply chain are huge, even in the absence of formal barriers. It is necessary for all the stakeholders, both private and public organizations, to support an effective and efficient border compliance process. Very little trade cost model research has been done at the

  3. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  4. Parents' attachment histories and children's externalizing and internalizing behaviors: exploring family systems models of linkage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, P A; Cowan, C P; Cohn, D A; Pearson, J L

    1996-02-01

    Twenty-seven mothers and 27 fathers were given the Adult Attachment Interview (M. Main & R. Goldwyn, in press) when their children were 3.5 years old. Continuous ratings of narrative coherence, probable experience quality (parents perceived as loving), and state of mind (current anger at parents) were entered as latent variables in partial least squares structural equation models that included observational measures of marital quality and parenting style. Models that include fathers' attachment histories predicted more variance in kindergarten teachers' descriptions of children's externalizing behavior, whereas models that include mothers' attachment histories predicted more variance in children's internalizing behavior. Marital data added predictive power to the equations. Discussion is focused on the importance of integrating attachment and family systems approaches, and of parents' gender and marital quality, in understanding specific links between parents' attachment histories and their young children's externalizing and internalizing behaviors.

  5. Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

    2018-05-01

    Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

  6. A comparison of elastic-plastic and variable modulus-cracking constitutive models for prestressed concrete reactor vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.A.; Smith, P.D.

    1979-01-01

    Numerical prediction of the behavior of prestressed concrete reactor vessels (PCRVs) under static, dynamic and long term loadings is complicated by the currently ill-defined behavior of concrete under stress and the three-dimensional nature of PCRVs. Which constitutive model most closely approximates the behavior of concrete in PCRVs under load has not yet been decided. Many equations for accurately modeling the three-dimensional behavior of PCRVs tax the capability of a most up-to-date computing system. The main purpose of this paper is to compare the characteristics of two constitutive models which have been proposed for concrete, variable modulus cracking model and elastic-plastic model. Moreover, the behavior of typical concrete structures was compared, the materials of which obey these constitutive laws. The response to internal pressure of PCRV structure, the constitutive models for concrete, the test problems using a thick-walled concrete ring and a rectangular concrete plate, and the analysis of an axisymmetric concrete pressure vessel PV-26 using the variable modulus cracking model of the ADINA code are explained. The variable modulus cracking model can predict the behavior of reinforced concrete structures well into the range of nonlinear behavior. (Kako, I.)

  7. A Management Model for International Participation in Space Exploration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, Patrick J.; Pease, Gary M.; Tyburski, Timothy E.

    2005-01-01

    This paper proposes an engineering management model for NASA's future space exploration missions based on past experiences working with the International Partners of the International Space Station. The authors have over 25 years of combined experience working with the European Space Agency, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Canadian Space Agency, Italian Space Agency, Russian Space Agency, and their respective contractors in the design, manufacturing, verification, and integration of their elements electric power system into the United States on-orbit segment. The perspective presented is one from a specific sub-system integration role and is offered so that the lessons learned from solving issues of technical and cultural nature may be taken into account during the formulation of international partnerships. Descriptions of the types of unique problems encountered relative to interactions between international partnerships are reviewed. Solutions to the problems are offered, taking into consideration the technical implications. Through the process of investigating each solution, the important and significant issues associated with working with international engineers and managers are outlined. Potential solutions are then characterized by proposing a set of specific methodologies to jointly develop spacecraft configurations that benefits all international participants, maximizes mission success and vehicle interoperability while minimizing cost.

  8. A holistic model of behavioural branding: The role of employee behaviours and internal branding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mazzei, Alessandra; Ravazzani, Silvia

    2015-01-01

    consistent meaning during the interaction with customers. It reviews the literature about behavioural branding and its antecedents, mediating variables and consequences in order to develop a holistic model of the inside-out brand building process, rooted in the theoretical perspectives of proactive...... behaviours, hierarchy of effects and planned behaviour. The paper concludes with a reflection on the role of internal branding in eliciting and managing employee brand consistent behaviours, and with avenues for future empirical research aimed to verify the model, its constructs and related measures....

  9. INTERNAL REGULATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL COMPANIES OPERATING IN POLAND AND TRADITIONAL FAMILY MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chojara-Sobiecka Małgorzata

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Most of the big companies have the internal regulations about human resources management. The bylaws in question are usually created in the reality of a particular legal system. When a company expands abroad, it starts operating in a different legal system than its own. As a result, the bylaws are not always compatible neither with laws nor the legal culture of the state of a new market. The paper touches upon the problem of the cohesion of internal regulations of some of the international companies operating in Poland with the traditional family model established in Polish law analyzing three areas such as: supporting parenting, family business, and preference for non-heterosexual persons. The conclusions are that some of the internal regulations are not coherent with Polish law, and some of the bylaws regarding, e.g., daycare or flexible working hours, can be adapted to Polish legal system. It (unclear what “it” is referring to would benefit traditional model of the family. The paper contains also the excursus about some legis-lative phenomenon regarding the reception of state law regulations issues by private companies and pos-tulates that the Polish legislator shall be open to new ideas in this matter and search for the well-tried regulations.

  10. Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in Electric Power Markets: Best Practices from International Experience, Summary for Policymakers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cochran, J.; Bird, L.; Heeter, J.; Arent, D. A.

    2012-04-01

    Many countries -- reflecting very different geographies, markets, and power systems -- are successfully managing high levels of variable renewable energy on the electric grid, including that from wind and solar energy. This document summarizes policy best practices that energy ministers and other stakeholders can pursue to ensure that electricity markets and power systems can effectively coevolve with increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy. There is no one-size-fits-all approach; each country studied has crafted its own combination of policies, market designs, and system operations to achieve the system reliability and flexibility needed to successfully integrate renewables. Notwithstanding this diversity, the approaches taken by the countries studied all coalesce around five strategic areas: lead public engagement, particularly for new transmission; coordinate and integrate planning; develop rules for market evolution that enable system flexibility; expand access to diverse resources and geographic footprint of operations; and improve system operations. This study also emphatically underscores the value of countries sharing their experiences. The more diverse and robust the experience base from which a country can draw, the more likely that it will be able to implement an appropriate, optimized, and system-wide approach.

  11. Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in Electric Power Markets. Best Practices from International Experience, Summary for Policymakers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cochran, Jaquelin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, Lori [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heeter, Jenny [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Arent, Douglas J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2012-04-30

    Many countries - reflecting very different geographies, markets, and power systems - are successfully managing high levels of variable renewable energy on the electric grid, including that from wind and solar energy. This document summarizes policy best practices that energy ministers and other stakeholders can pursue to ensure that electricity markets and power systems can effectively coevolve with increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy. There is no one-size-fits-all approach; each country studied has crafted its own combination of policies, market designs, and system operations to achieve the system reliability and flexibility needed to successfully integrate renewables. Notwithstanding this diversity, the approaches taken by the countries studied all coalesce around five strategic areas: lead public engagement, particularly for new transmission; coordinate and integrate planning; develop rules for market evolution that enable system flexibility; expand access to diverse resources and geographic footprint of operations; and improve system operations. This study also emphatically underscores the value of countries sharing their experiences. The more diverse and robust the experience base from which a country can draw, the more likely that it will be able to implement an appropriate, optimized, and system-wide approach.

  12. Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in Electric Power Markets. Best Practices from International Experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cochran, Jaquelin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, Lori [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heeter, Jenny [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Arent, Douglas J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2012-04-30

    Many countries—reflecting very different geographies, markets, and power systems—are successfully managing high levels of variable renewable energy on the electric grid, including that from wind and solar energy. This document summarizes policy best practices that energy ministers and other stakeholders can pursue to ensure that electricity markets and power systems can effectively coevolve with increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy. There is no one-size-fits-all approach; each country studied has crafted its own combination of policies, market designs, and system operations to achieve the system reliability and flexibility needed to successfully integrate renewables. Notwithstanding this diversity, the approaches taken by the countries studied all coalesce around five strategic areas: lead public engagement, particularly for new transmission; coordinate and integrate planning; develop rules for market evolution that enable system flexibility; expand access to diverse resources and geographic footprint of operations; and improve system operations. This study also emphatically underscores the value of countries sharing their experiences. The more diverse and robust the experience base from which a country can draw, the more likely that it will be able to implement an appropriate, optimized, and system-wide approach.

  13. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

    2017-12-01

    The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  14. TEC variability near northern EIA crest and comparison with IRI model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Malini

    2011-10-01

    Monthly median values of hourly total electron content (TEC) is obtained with GPS at a station near northern anomaly crest, Rajkot (geog. 22.29°N, 70.74°E; geomag. 14.21°N, 144.9°E) to study the variability of low latitude ionospheric behavior during low solar activity period (April 2005 to March 2006). The TEC exhibit characteristic features like day-to-day variability, semiannual anomaly and noon bite out. The observed TEC is compared with latest International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) - 2007 model using options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr and IRI-2001 by using both URSI and CCIR coefficients. A good agreement of observed and predicted TEC is found during the daytime with underestimation at other times. The predicted TEC by NeQuick and IRI01-corr is closer to the observed TEC during the daytime whereas during nighttime and morning hours, IRI-2001 shows lesser discrepancy in all seasons by both URSI and CCIR coefficients.

  15. Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

    2018-02-01

    An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

  16. Latent variable modeling%建立隐性变量模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蔡力

    2012-01-01

    @@ A latent variable model, as the name suggests,is a statistical model that contains latent, that is, unobserved, variables.Their roots go back to Spearman's 1904 seminal work[1] on factor analysis,which is arguably the first well-articulated latent variable model to be widely used in psychology, mental health research, and allied disciplines.Because of the association of factor analysis with early studies of human intelligence, the fact that key variables in a statistical model are, on occasion, unobserved has been a point of lingering contention and controversy.The reader is assured, however, that a latent variable,defined in the broadest manner, is no more mysterious than an error term in a normal theory linear regression model or a random effect in a mixed model.

  17. Adaptive Modeling of the International Space Station Electrical Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Justin Ray

    2007-01-01

    Software simulations provide NASA engineers the ability to experiment with spacecraft systems in a computer-imitated environment. Engineers currently develop software models that encapsulate spacecraft system behavior. These models can be inaccurate due to invalid assumptions, erroneous operation, or system evolution. Increasing accuracy requires manual calibration and domain-specific knowledge. This thesis presents a method for automatically learning system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques are applied to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). We also explore a knowledge fusion approach that uses traditional engineered EPS models to supplement the learned models. We observed that these engineered EPS models provide useful background knowledge to reduce predictive error spikes when confronted with making predictions in situations that are quite different from the training scenarios used when learning the model. Evaluations using ISS sensor data and existing EPS models demonstrate the success of the adaptive approach. Our experimental results show that adaptive modeling provides reductions in model error anywhere from 80% to 96% over these existing models. Final discussions include impending use of adaptive modeling technology for ISS mission operations and the need for adaptive modeling in future NASA lunar and Martian exploration.

  18. Torque Modeling and Control of a Variable Compression Engine

    OpenAIRE

    Bergström, Andreas

    2003-01-01

    The SAAB variable compression engine is a new engine concept that enables the fuel consumption to be radically cut by varying the compression ratio. A challenge with this new engine concept is that the compression ratio has a direct influence on the output torque, which means that a change in compression ratio also leads to a change in the torque. A torque change may be felt as a jerk in the movement of the car, and this is an undesirable effect since the driver has no control over the compre...

  19. Design and Modeling of a Variable Heat Rejection Radiator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jennifer R.; Birur, Gajanana C.; Ganapathi, Gani B.; Sunada, Eric T.; Berisford, Daniel F.; Stephan, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Variable Heat Rejection Radiator technology needed for future NASA human rated & robotic missions Primary objective is to enable a single loop architecture for human-rated missions (1) Radiators are typically sized for maximum heat load in the warmest continuous environment resulting in a large panel area (2) Large radiator area results in fluid being susceptible to freezing at low load in cold environment and typically results in a two-loop system (3) Dual loop architecture is approximately 18% heavier than single loop architecture (based on Orion thermal control system mass) (4) Single loop architecture requires adaptability to varying environments and heat loads

  20. Models for turbulent flows with variable density and combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, W.P.

    1980-01-01

    Models for transport processes and combustion in turbulent flows are outlined with emphasis on the situation where the fuel and air are injected separately. Attention is restricted to relatively simple flames. The flows investigated are high Reynolds number, single-phase, turbulent high-temperature flames in which radiative heat transfer can be considered negligible. Attention is given to the lower order closure models, algebraic stress and flux models, the k-epsilon turbulence model, the diffusion flame approximation, and finite rate reaction mechanisms

  1. The International Reference Ionosphere 2012 – a model of international collaboration

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bilitza, D.; Altadill, D.; Zhang, Y.; Mertens, Ch.; Truhlík, Vladimír; Richards, P.; McKinnell, L.- A.; Reinisch, B.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 4, 20 February (2014), A07/1-A07/12 ISSN 2115-7251 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LH11123 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : International Reference Ionosphere * empirical models * plasma parameters * real - time IRI Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.558, year: 2014 http://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/abs/2014/01/swsc130043/swsc130043.html

  2. PATH ANALYSIS WITH LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS : EFFECT ANALYSIS OF FULLY RECURSIVE CAUSAL SYSTEMS OF CATEGORICAL VARIABLES

    OpenAIRE

    Nobuoki, Eshima; Minoru, Tabata; Geng, Zhi; Department of Medical Information Analysis, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University; Department of Applied Mathematics, Faculty of Engineering, Kobe University; Department of Probability and Statistics, Peking University

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses path analysis of categorical variables with logistic regression models. The total, direct and indirect effects in fully recursive causal systems are considered by using model parameters. These effects can be explained in terms of log odds ratios, uncertainty differences, and an inner product of explanatory variables and a response variable. A study on food choice of alligators as a numerical exampleis reanalysed to illustrate the present approach.

  3. Modeling Short-Range Soil Variability and its Potential Use in Variable-Rate Treatment of Experimental Plots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Moameni

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In Iran, the experimental plots under fertilizer trials are managed in such a way that the whole plot area uniformly receives agricultural inputs. This could lead to biased research results and hence to suppressing of the efforts made by the researchers. This research was conducted in a selected site belonging to the Gonbad Agricultural Research Station, located in the semiarid region, northeastern Iran. The aim was to characterize the short-range spatial variability of the inherent and management-depended soil properties and to determine if this variation is large and can be managed at practical scales. The soils were sampled using a grid 55 m apart. In total, 100 composite soil samples were collected from topsoil (0-30 cm and were analyzed for calcium carbonate equivalent, organic carbon, clay, available phosphorus, available potassium, iron, copper, zinc and manganese. Descriptive statistics were applied to check data trends. Geostatistical analysis was applied to variography, model fitting and contour mapping. Sampling at 55 m made it possible to split the area of the selected experimental plot into relatively uniform areas that allow application of agricultural inputs with variable rates. Keywords: Short-range soil variability, Within-field soil variability, Interpolation, Precision agriculture, Geostatistics

  4. Latent variable models an introduction to factor, path, and structural equation analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Loehlin, John C

    2004-01-01

    This fourth edition introduces multiple-latent variable models by utilizing path diagrams to explain the underlying relationships in the models. The book is intended for advanced students and researchers in the areas of social, educational, clinical, ind

  5. Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...

  6. Preface: International Reference Ionosphere - Progress in Ionospheric Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilitza Dieter; Reinisch, Bodo

    2010-01-01

    The international reference ionosphere (lRI) is the internationally recommended empirical model for the specification of ionospheric parameters supported by the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) and recognized by the International Standardization Organization (ISO). IRI is being continually improved by a team of international experts as new data become available and better models are being developed. This issue chronicles the latest phase of model updates as reported during two IRI-related meetings. The first was a special session during the Scientific Assembly of the Committee of Space Research (COSPAR) in Montreal, Canada in July 2008 and the second was an IRI Task Force Activity at the US Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs in May 2009. This work led to several improvements and additions of the model which will be included in the next version, IRI-201O. The issue is divided into three sections focusing on the improvements made in the topside ionosphere, the F-peak, and the lower ionosphere, respectively. This issue would not have been possible without the reviewing efforts of many individuals. Each paper was reviewed by two referees. We thankfully acknowledge the contribution to this issue made by the following reviewers: Jacob Adeniyi, David Altadill, Eduardo Araujo, Feza Arikan, Dieter Bilitza, Jilijana Cander, Bela Fejer, Tamara Gulyaeva, Manuel Hermindez-Pajares, Ivan Kutiev, John MacDougal, Leo McNamara, Bruno Nava, Olivier Obrou, Elijah Oyeyemi, Vadym Paznukhov, Bodo Reinisch, John Retterer, Phil Richards, Gary Sales, J.H. Sastri, Ludger Scherliess, Iwona Stanislavska, Stamir Stankov, Shin-Yi Su, Manlian Zhang, Y ongliang Zhang, and Irina Zakharenkova. We are grateful to Peggy Ann Shea for her final review and guidance as the editor-in-chief for special issues of Advances in Space Research. We thank the authors for their timely submission and their quick response to the reviewer comments and humbly

  7. Separation of uncertainty and interindividual variability in human exposure modeling.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ragas, A.M.J.; Brouwer, F.P.E.; Buchner, F.L.; Hendriks, H.W.; Huijbregts, M.A.J.

    2009-01-01

    The NORMTOX model predicts the lifetime-averaged exposure to contaminants through multiple environmental media, that is, food, air, soil, drinking and surface water. The model was developed to test the coherence of Dutch environmental quality objectives (EQOs). A set of EQOs is called coherent if

  8. Mediating Variables in a Transtheoretical Model Dietary Intervention Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Noia, Jennifer; Prochaska, James O.

    2010-01-01

    This study identified mediators of a Transtheoretical Model (TTM) intervention to increase fruit and vegetable consumption among economically disadvantaged African American adolescents (N = 549). Single-and multiple-mediator models were used to determine whether pros, cons, self-efficacy, and stages of change satisfied four conclusions necessary…

  9. Using internal discharge data in a distributed conceptual model to reduce uncertainty in streamflow simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, J.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.; Lundin, L.

    2011-12-01

    Distributed hydrological models are important tools in water management as they account for the spatial variability of the hydrological data, as well as being able to produce spatially distributed outputs. They can directly incorporate and assess potential changes in the characteristics of our basins. A recognized problem for models in general is equifinality, which is only exacerbated for distributed models who tend to have a large number of parameters. We need to deal with the fundamentally ill-posed nature of the problem that such models force us to face, i.e. a large number of parameters and very few variables that can be used to constrain them, often only the catchment discharge. There is a growing but yet limited literature showing how the internal states of a distributed model can be used to calibrate/validate its predictions. In this paper, a distributed version of WASMOD, a conceptual rainfall runoff model with only three parameters, combined with a routing algorithm based on the high-resolution HydroSHEDS data was used to simulate the discharge in the Paso La Ceiba basin in Honduras. The parameter space was explored using Monte-Carlo simulations and the region of space containing the parameter-sets that were considered behavioral according to two different criteria was delimited using the geometric concept of alpha-shapes. The discharge data from five internal sub-basins was used to aid in the calibration of the model and to answer the following questions: Can this information improve the simulations at the outlet of the catchment, or decrease their uncertainty? Also, after reducing the number of model parameters needing calibration through sensitivity analysis: Is it possible to relate them to basin characteristics? The analysis revealed that in most cases the internal discharge data can be used to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge at the outlet, albeit with little improvement in the overall simulation results.

  10. Comparison of elastic--plastic and variable modulus-cracking constitutive models for prestressed concrete reactor vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.A.; Smith, P.D.

    1978-01-01

    The variable modulus-cracking model is capable of predicting the behavior of reinforced concrete structures (such as the reinforced plate under transverse pressure described previously) well into the range of nonlinear behavior including the prediction of the ultimate load. For unreinforced thick-walled concrete vessels under internal pressure the use of elastic--plastic concrete models in finite element codes enhances the apparent ductility of the vessels in contrast to variable modulus-cracking models that predict nearly instantaneous rupture whenever the tensile strength at the inner wall is exceeded. For unreinforced thick-walled end slabs representative of PCRV heads, the behavior predicted by finite element codes using variable modulus-cracking models is much stiffer in the nonlinear range than that observed experimentally. Although the shear type failures and crack patterns that are observed experimentally are predicted by such concrete models, the ultimate load carrying capacity and vessel-ductility are significantly underestimated. It appears that such models do not adequately model such features as aggregate interlock that could lead to an enhanced vessel reserve strength and ductility

  11. Multiphysical model of heterogenous flow moving along а channel of variable cross-section

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    М. А. Васильева

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem aimed at solving the fundamental problems of developing effective methods and tools for designing, controlling and managing the stream of fluid flowing in variable-section pipelines intended for the production of pumping equipment, medical devices and used in such areas of industry as mining, chemical, food production, etc. Execution of simulation modelling of flow motion according to the scheme of twisted paddle static mixer allows to estimate the efficiency of mixing by calculating the trajectory and velocities of the suspended particles going through the mixer, and also to estimate the pressure drop on the hydraulic flow resistance. The model examines the mixing of solids dissolved in a liquid at room temperature. To visualize the process of distributing the mixture particles over the cross-section and analyzing the mixing efficiency, the Poincaréplot module of the COMSOL Multiphysics software environment was used. For the first time, a multi-physical stream of heterogeneous flow model has been developed that describes in detail the physical state of the fluid at all points of the considered section at the initial time, takes into account the design parameters of the channel (orientation, dimensions, material, etc., specifies the laws of variation of the parameters at the boundaries of the calculated section in conditions of the wave change in the internal section of the working chamber-channel of the inductive peristaltic pumping unit under the influence of the energy of the magnetic field.

  12. A margin model to account for respiration-induced tumour motion and its variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolens, Catherine; Webb, Steve; Evans, Phil M; Shirato, H; Nishioka, K

    2008-01-01

    In order to reduce the sensitivity of radiotherapy treatments to organ motion, compensation methods are being investigated such as gating of treatment delivery, tracking of tumour position, 4D scanning and planning of the treatment, etc. An outstanding problem that would occur with all these methods is the assumption that breathing motion is reproducible throughout the planning and delivery process of treatment. This is obviously not a realistic assumption and is one that will introduce errors. A dynamic internal margin model (DIM) is presented that is designed to follow the tumour trajectory and account for the variability in respiratory motion. The model statistically describes the variation of the breathing cycle over time, i.e. the uncertainty in motion amplitude and phase reproducibility, in a polar coordinate system from which margins can be derived. This allows accounting for an additional gating window parameter for gated treatment delivery as well as minimizing the area of normal tissue irradiated. The model was illustrated with abdominal motion for a patient with liver cancer and tested with internal 3D lung tumour trajectories. The results confirm that the respiratory phases around exhale are most reproducible and have the smallest variation in motion amplitude and phase (approximately 2 mm). More importantly, the margin area covering normal tissue is significantly reduced by using trajectory-specific margins (as opposed to conventional margins) as the angular component is by far the largest contributor to the margin area. The statistical approach to margin calculation, in addition, offers the possibility for advanced online verification and updating of breathing variation as more data become available

  13. The Association between Related Party Transactions and Real Earnings Management: Internal Governance Mechanism as Moderating Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khober Limanto Genius

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the association between related party transactions (RPT and real earnings management (REM. We also investigate the role of internal governance mechanism through the effectiveness of board of commissioner and audit committee in mitigating the association between RPT and REM. Our research sample consists of 386 firm-years of manufacturing firms listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX from year 2010 - 2014. Using linear regression, we find evidence that RPT has positive association with REM, only when the firm has higher RPT but not in the lower RPT. We find a contradictory result that board of commissioners strengthen the positive association between RPT and REM. Finally, we find evidence that the effectiveness of audit committees weaken the positive association between RPT and REM, both in full sample and in high RPT sample.

  14. Functionally relevant climate variables for arid lands: Aclimatic water deficit approach for modelling desert shrub distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas E. Dilts; Peter J. Weisberg; Camie M. Dencker; Jeanne C. Chambers

    2015-01-01

    We have three goals. (1) To develop a suite of functionally relevant climate variables for modelling vegetation distribution on arid and semi-arid landscapes of the Great Basin, USA. (2) To compare the predictive power of vegetation distribution models based on mechanistically proximate factors (water deficit variables) and factors that are more mechanistically removed...

  15. A Composite Likelihood Inference in Latent Variable Models for Ordinal Longitudinal Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasdekis, Vassilis G. S.; Cagnone, Silvia; Moustaki, Irini

    2012-01-01

    The paper proposes a composite likelihood estimation approach that uses bivariate instead of multivariate marginal probabilities for ordinal longitudinal responses using a latent variable model. The model considers time-dependent latent variables and item-specific random effects to be accountable for the interdependencies of the multivariate…

  16. Interannual modes of variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP3 models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grainger, S; Frederiksen, C S; Zheng, X

    2010-01-01

    The atmospheric circulation acts as a bridge between large-scale sources of climate variability, and climate variability on regional scales. Here a statistical method is applied to monthly mean Southern Hemisphere 500hPa geopotential height to separate the interannual variability of the seasonal mean into intraseasonal and slowly varying (time scales of a season or longer) components. Intraseasonal and slow modes of variability are estimated from realisations of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) twentieth century coupled climate simulation (20c3m) and are evaluated against those estimated from reanalysis data. The intraseasonal modes of variability are generally well reproduced across all CMIP3 20c3m models for both Southern Hemisphere summer and winter. The slow modes are in general less well reproduced than the intraseasonal modes, and there are larger differences between realisations than for the intraseasonal modes. New diagnostics are proposed to evaluate model variability. It is found that differences between realisations from each model are generally less than inter-model differences. Differences between model-mean diagnostics are found. The results obtained are applicable to assessing the reliability of changes in atmospheric circulation variability in CMIP3 models and for their suitability for further studies of regional climate variability.

  17. A conflict model for the international hazardous waste disposal dispute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Kaixian; Hipel, Keith W.; Fang, Liping

    2009-01-01

    A multi-stage conflict model is developed to analyze international hazardous waste disposal disputes. More specifically, the ongoing toxic waste conflicts are divided into two stages consisting of the dumping prevention and dispute resolution stages. The modeling and analyses, based on the methodology of graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), are used in both stages in order to grasp the structure and implications of a given conflict from a strategic viewpoint. Furthermore, a specific case study is investigated for the Ivory Coast hazardous waste conflict. In addition to the stability analysis, sensitivity and attitude analyses are conducted to capture various strategic features of this type of complicated dispute.

  18. A conflict model for the international hazardous waste disposal dispute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Kaixian; Hipel, Keith W; Fang, Liping

    2009-12-15

    A multi-stage conflict model is developed to analyze international hazardous waste disposal disputes. More specifically, the ongoing toxic waste conflicts are divided into two stages consisting of the dumping prevention and dispute resolution stages. The modeling and analyses, based on the methodology of graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), are used in both stages in order to grasp the structure and implications of a given conflict from a strategic viewpoint. Furthermore, a specific case study is investigated for the Ivory Coast hazardous waste conflict. In addition to the stability analysis, sensitivity and attitude analyses are conducted to capture various strategic features of this type of complicated dispute.

  19. International Conference on Computational Intelligence, Cyber Security, and Computational Models

    CERN Document Server

    Ramasamy, Vijayalakshmi; Sheen, Shina; Veeramani, C; Bonato, Anthony; Batten, Lynn

    2016-01-01

    This book aims at promoting high-quality research by researchers and practitioners from academia and industry at the International Conference on Computational Intelligence, Cyber Security, and Computational Models ICC3 2015 organized by PSG College of Technology, Coimbatore, India during December 17 – 19, 2015. This book enriches with innovations in broad areas of research like computational modeling, computational intelligence and cyber security. These emerging inter disciplinary research areas have helped to solve multifaceted problems and gained lot of attention in recent years. This encompasses theory and applications, to provide design, analysis and modeling of the aforementioned key areas.

  20. From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

    2016-02-01

    This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

  1. Modeling Scramjet Flows with Variable Turbulent Prandtl and Schmidt Numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, X.; Hassan, H. A.; Baurle, R. A.

    2006-01-01

    A complete turbulence model, where the turbulent Prandtl and Schmidt numbers are calculated as part of the solution and where averages involving chemical source terms are modeled, is presented. The ability of avoiding the use of assumed or evolution Probability Distribution Functions (PDF's) results in a highly efficient algorithm for reacting flows. The predictions of the model are compared with two sets of experiments involving supersonic mixing and one involving supersonic combustion. The results demonstrate the need for consideration of turbulence/chemistry interactions in supersonic combustion. In general, good agreement with experiment is indicated.

  2. Modelling the internal boundary layer over the lower fraser valley, British Columbia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batchvarova, E. [National Inst. of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia (Bulgaria); Steyn, D. [Univ. of British Columbia, Dept. of Geography, Vancouver (Canada); Cai, X. [Univ. of Birmingham, School of Geography, Edgbaston (United Kingdom); Gryning, S.E. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Baldi, M. [Inst. for Atmospheric Physics, IFA-CNR, Rome (Italy)

    1997-10-01

    In this study we use the very extensive data-set on temporal and spatial structure of the internal boundary layer on the Lower Faser Valley, Canada, collected during the so-called Pacific `93 field campaign, to study the ability of the simple applied model by Gryning and Batchvarova (1996) and the CSU-RAMS meso-scale model summarised in Pielke et al. (1992) to describe the development and variability of the internal boundary layer depth during the course of a day. Given the complexity of topography, coastline and land-use in the Lower Fraser Valley region, both models perform remarkably well. The simple applied model performs extremely well, given its simplicity. It is clear that correct specification of spatially resolved surface sensible heat flux and wind field are crucial to the success of this model which can be operated at very fine spatial resolution. The 3D model performs extremely well, though it too must capture the local wind field correctly for complete success. Its limited horizontal resolution results in strongly smoothed internal boundary layer height fields. (LN)

  3. The Role of Information Technology as Moderating Variable and Internal Control Effectiveness as intervening in the Relationship between Human Resource Competency and Internal Auditor Service Quality on of Report

    OpenAIRE

    Haliah, Hamid,Irdam

    2015-01-01

    in general, this research is intended to investigate factors that effect quality of report of local government in west Sulawesi province, Indonesia. Human resource competence and quality of services of internal auditor have indirect effect through the effectiveness of internal control to the quality of the report. These results indicate that the effectiveness of internal control serves as an intervening variable on the relationship of competence of human resources and internal auditor service...

  4. Vibration behavior of PWR reactor internals Model experiments and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assedo, R.; Dubourg, M.; Livolant, M.; Epstein, A.

    1975-01-01

    In the late 1971, the CEA and FRAMATOME decided to undertake a comprehensive joint program of studying the vibration behavior of PWR internals of the 900 MWe, 50 cycle, 3 loop reactor series being built by FRAMATOME in France. The PWR reactor internals are submitted to several sources of excitation during normal operation. Two main sources of excitation may effect the internals behavior: the large flow turbulences which could generate various instabilities such as: vortex shedding: the pump pressure fluctuations which could generate acoustic noise in the circuit at frequencies corresponding to shaft speed frequencies or blade passing frequencies, and their respective harmonics. The flow induced vibrations are of complex nature and the approach selected, for this comprehensive program, is semi-empirical and based on both theoretical analysis and experiments on a reduced scale model and full scale internals. The experimental support of this program consists of: the SAFRAN test loop which consists of an hydroelastic similitude of a 1/8 scale model of a PWR; harmonic vibration tests in air performed on full scale reactor internals in the manufacturing shop; the GENNEVILLIERS facilities which is a full flow test facility of primary pump; the measurements carried out during start up on the Tihange reactor. This program will be completed in April 1975. The results of this program, the originality of which consists of studying separately the effects of random excitations and acoustic noises, on the internals behavior, and by establishing a comparison between experiments and analysis, will bring a major contribution for explaining the complex vibration phenomena occurring in a PWR

  5. Modelling the diurnal variability of SST and its vertical extent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Høyer, Jacob L.; Donlon, Craig J.

    2014-01-01

    of the water column where most of the heat is absorbed and where the exchange of heat and momentum with the atmosphere occurs. During day-time and under favourable conditions of low winds and high insolation, diurnal warming of the upper layer poses challenges for validating and calibrating satellite sensors......Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is a key variable in air-sea interactions, partly controlling the oceanic uptake of CO2 and the heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, amongst others. Satellite SSTs are representative of skin and sub-skin temperature, i.e. in the upper millimetres...... and merging SST time series. When radiometer signals, typically from satellites, are validated with in situ measurements from drifting and moored buoys a general mismatch is found, associated with the different reference depth of each type of measurement. A generally preferred approach to bridge the gap...

  6. modelling of hydropower reservoir variables for energy generation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    the River Niger (Kainji and Jebba dams) in Nigeria for energy generation using multilayer ... coefficient showed that the networks are reliable for modeling energy generation as a function of ... water, like wind and sun, is a renewable resource.

  7. Importance of predictor variables for models of chemical function

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Importance of random forest predictors for all classification models of chemical function. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Isaacs , K., M....

  8. modelling of hydropower reservoir variables for energy generation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    the River Niger (Kainji and Jebba dams) in Nigeria for energy generation using multilayer ... coefficient showed that the networks are reliable for modeling energy generation as a function of ... through turbines and electric generator system.

  9. The use of Chernobyl data to test model predictions for interindividual variability of 137Cs concentrations in humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F. Owen; Thiessen, Kathleen M.

    1996-01-01

    Data sets assembled in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident as a part of the International Atomic Energy Agency's model testing program (VAMP) have provided a rare opportunity for 'blind-testing' predictions made with exposure assessment models. Measurements of Chernobyl-derived 137 Cs in Central Bohemia (Czech Republic) and southern Finland were used to test model predictions for a number of endpoints, including the distribution of whole-body concentrations of 137 Cs in adults in these regions at specified time points. This test endpoint required separation of uncertainty due to stochastic variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and uncertainty due to lack of knowledge about fixed but unknown values (epistemic uncertainty). Predictions of the distribution of whole-body 137 Cs concentrations were made by a minority of the participants in these model-testing exercises. Major reasons for misprediction included bias in the bioavailability of 137 Cs in soil and misestimation of the total intake of 137 Cs in the diet. Overestimation of the amount of interindividual variability often resulted from confusion of uncertainty with variability. The spreads of the distributions for parameters describing interindividual variability were frequently increased to compensate for lack of knowledge about the uptake and metabolism of 137 Cs in the population. Accurate results produced by participants are attributable both to a participant's access to additional site-specific data or choice of appropriate site-specific assumptions and to the effects of compensatory errors

  10. Influences of variables on ship collision probability in a Bayesian belief network model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hänninen, Maria; Kujala, Pentti

    2012-01-01

    The influences of the variables in a Bayesian belief network model for estimating the role of human factors on ship collision probability in the Gulf of Finland are studied for discovering the variables with the largest influences and for examining the validity of the network. The change in the so-called causation probability is examined while observing each state of the network variables and by utilizing sensitivity and mutual information analyses. Changing course in an encounter situation is the most influential variable in the model, followed by variables such as the Officer of the Watch's action, situation assessment, danger detection, personal condition and incapacitation. The least influential variables are the other distractions on bridge, the bridge view, maintenance routines and the officer's fatigue. In general, the methods are found to agree on the order of the model variables although some disagreements arise due to slightly dissimilar approaches to the concept of variable influence. The relative values and the ranking of variables based on the values are discovered to be more valuable than the actual numerical values themselves. Although the most influential variables seem to be plausible, there are some discrepancies between the indicated influences in the model and literature. Thus, improvements are suggested to the network.

  11. Validation of Generic Models for Variable Speed Operation Wind Turbines Following the Recent Guidelines Issued by IEC 61400-27

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés Honrubia-Escribano

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Considerable efforts are currently being made by several international working groups focused on the development of generic, also known as simplified or standard, wind turbine models for power system stability studies. In this sense, the first edition of International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC 61400-27-1, which defines generic dynamic simulation models for wind turbines, was published in February 2015. Nevertheless, the correlations of the IEC generic models with respect to specific wind turbine manufacturer models are required by the wind power industry to validate the accuracy and corresponding usability of these standard models. The present work conducts the validation of the two topologies of variable speed wind turbines that present not only the largest market share, but also the most technological advances. Specifically, the doubly-fed induction machine and the full-scale converter (FSC topology are modeled based on the IEC 61400-27-1 guidelines. The models are simulated for a wide range of voltage dips with different characteristics and wind turbine operating conditions. The simulated response of the IEC generic model is compared to the corresponding simplified model of a wind turbine manufacturer, showing a good correlation in most cases. Validation error sources are analyzed in detail, as well. In addition, this paper reviews in detail the previous work done in this field. Results suggest that wind turbine manufacturers are able to adjust the IEC generic models to represent the behavior of their specific wind turbines for power system stability analysis.

  12. Dynamic modeling of fixed-bed adsorption of flue gas using a variable mass transfer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jehun; Lee, Jae W.

    2016-01-01

    This study introduces a dynamic mass transfer model for the fixed-bed adsorption of a flue gas. The derivation of the variable mass transfer coefficient is based on pore diffusion theory and it is a function of effective porosity, temperature, and pressure as well as the adsorbate composition. Adsorption experiments were done at four different pressures (1.8, 5, 10 and 20 bars) and three different temperatures (30, 50 and 70 .deg. C) with zeolite 13X as the adsorbent. To explain the equilibrium adsorption capacity, the Langmuir-Freundlich isotherm model was adopted, and the parameters of the isotherm equation were fitted to the experimental data for a wide range of pressures and temperatures. Then, dynamic simulations were performed using the system equations for material and energy balance with the equilibrium adsorption isotherm data. The optimal mass transfer and heat transfer coefficients were determined after iterative calculations. As a result, the dynamic variable mass transfer model can estimate the adsorption rate for a wide range of concentrations and precisely simulate the fixed-bed adsorption process of a flue gas mixture of carbon dioxide and nitrogen.

  13. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  14. A model of strategic marketing alliances for hospices: vertical, internal, osmotic alliances and the complete model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starnes, B J; Self, D R

    1999-01-01

    This article develops two previous research efforts. William J. Winston (1994, 1995) has proposed a set of strategies by which health care organizations can benefit from forging strategic alliances. Raadt and Self (1997) have proposed a classification model of alliances including horizontal, vertical, internal, and osmotic. In the second of two articles, this paper presents a model of vertical, internal, and osmotic alliances. Advantages and disadvantages of each are discussed. Finally, the complete alliance system model is presented.

  15. The necessity of connection structures in neural models of variable binding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, Frank; de Kamps, Marc

    2015-08-01

    In his review of neural binding problems, Feldman (Cogn Neurodyn 7:1-11, 2013) addressed two types of models as solutions of (novel) variable binding. The one type uses labels such as phase synchrony of activation. The other ('connectivity based') type uses dedicated connections structures to achieve novel variable binding. Feldman argued that label (synchrony) based models are the only possible candidates to handle novel variable binding, whereas connectivity based models lack the flexibility required for that. We argue and illustrate that Feldman's analysis is incorrect. Contrary to his conclusion, connectivity based models are the only viable candidates for models of novel variable binding because they are the only type of models that can produce behavior. We will show that the label (synchrony) based models analyzed by Feldman are in fact examples of connectivity based models. Feldman's analysis that novel variable binding can be achieved without existing connection structures seems to result from analyzing the binding problem in a wrong frame of reference, in particular in an outside instead of the required inside frame of reference. Connectivity based models can be models of novel variable binding when they possess a connection structure that resembles a small-world network, as found in the brain. We will illustrate binding with this type of model with episode binding and the binding of words, including novel words, in sentence structures.

  16. A Simple Model of the Variability of Soil Depths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Yu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Soil depth tends to vary from a few centimeters to several meters, depending on many natural and environmental factors. We hypothesize that the cumulative effect of these factors on soil depth, which is chiefly dependent on the process of biogeochemical weathering, is particularly affected by soil porewater (i.e., solute transport and infiltration from the land surface. Taking into account evidence for a non-Gaussian distribution of rock weathering rates, we propose a simple mathematical model to describe the relationship between soil depth and infiltration flux. The model was tested using several areas in mostly semi-arid climate zones. The application of this model demonstrates the use of fundamental principles of physics to quantify the coupled effects of the five principal soil-forming factors of Dokuchaev.

  17. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  18. Speciation and internal dosimetry: from chemical species to dosimetric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paquet, F.; Frelon, S.; Cote, G.; Madic, C.

    2004-01-01

    Speciation studies refer to the distribution of species in a particular sample or matrix. These studies are necessary to improve the description, understanding and prediction of trace element kinetics and toxicity. In case of internal contamination with radionuclides, speciation studies could help to improve both the biokinetic and dosimetric models for radionuclides. There are different methods to approach the speciation of radionuclide in a biological system, depending on the degree of accuracy needed and the level of uncertainties accepted. Among them, computer modelling and experimental determination are complementary approaches. This paper describes what is known about speciation of actinides in blood, GI-tract, liver and skeleton and of their consequences in terms of internal dosimetry. The conclusion is that such studies provide very valuable data and should be targeted in the future on some specific tissues and biomolecules. (authors)

  19. Perturbative corrections for approximate inference in gaussian latent variable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Opper, Manfred; Paquet, Ulrich; Winther, Ole

    2013-01-01

    Expectation Propagation (EP) provides a framework for approximate inference. When the model under consideration is over a latent Gaussian field, with the approximation being Gaussian, we show how these approximations can systematically be corrected. A perturbative expansion is made of the exact b...... illustrate on tree-structured Ising model approximations. Furthermore, they provide a polynomial-time assessment of the approximation error. We also provide both theoretical and practical insights on the exactness of the EP solution. © 2013 Manfred Opper, Ulrich Paquet and Ole Winther....

  20. Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium – an assessment with the ECHO-g Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ortega

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation. The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM. When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on

  1. Modelling of Station of Pumping by Variable Speed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benretem A.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available An increased energetic efficiency will make it possible to decrease the factory operating costs and hence to increase productivity. The centrifugal pumps are largely used because of their relatively simple operation and of their purchase price. One analyses thorough requirements imposed by the pumping plants is decisive. It is important to keep in mind the fact that the pumps consume approximately 20% of energy in the world. They constitute the possibility for the most significant efficiency improvement. They can reach their maximum effectiveness only with one pressure and a given flow. The approach suggested makes it possible to adapt with accuracy and effectiveness of system output of the industrial process requirements. The variable speed drive is one of best and effective techniques studied to reach this objective. The appearance of this technique comes only after the evolution obtained in the field of power electronics systems precisely static inverters as well as the efforts made by the researchers in the field of electric drive systems. This work suggested is the result of an in-depth study on the effectiveness of this new technique applied for the centrifugal pumps.

  2. Radioactive waste management. International projects on biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carboneras, P.; Cancio, D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents a general overview and discussion on the state of art concerning the biospheric transfer and accumulation of contaminants. A special emphasis is given to the progress achieved in the field of radioactive contaminants and particularly to those implied in radioactive waste disposal. The objectives and advances of the international projects BIOMOVS and VAMP on validation of model predictions are also described. (Author)

  3. Improved variable reduction in partial least squares modelling based on predictive-property-ranked variables and adaptation of partial least squares complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andries, Jan P M; Vander Heyden, Yvan; Buydens, Lutgarde M C

    2011-10-31

    The calibration performance of partial least squares for one response variable (PLS1) can be improved by elimination of uninformative variables. Many methods are based on so-called predictive variable properties, which are functions of various PLS-model parameters, and which may change during the variable reduction process. In these methods variable reduction is made on the variables ranked in descending order for a given variable property. The methods start with full spectrum modelling. Iteratively, until a specified number of remaining variables is reached, the variable with the smallest property value is eliminated; a new PLS model is calculated, followed by a renewed ranking of the variables. The Stepwise Variable Reduction methods using Predictive-Property-Ranked Variables are denoted as SVR-PPRV. In the existing SVR-PPRV methods the PLS model complexity is kept constant during the variable reduction process. In this study, three new SVR-PPRV methods are proposed, in which a possibility for decreasing the PLS model complexity during the variable reduction process is build in. Therefore we denote our methods as PPRVR-CAM methods (Predictive-Property-Ranked Variable Reduction with Complexity Adapted Models). The selective and predictive abilities of the new methods are investigated and tested, using the absolute PLS regression coefficients as predictive property. They were compared with two modifications of existing SVR-PPRV methods (with constant PLS model complexity) and with two reference methods: uninformative variable elimination followed by either a genetic algorithm for PLS (UVE-GA-PLS) or an interval PLS (UVE-iPLS). The performance of the methods is investigated in conjunction with two data sets from near-infrared sources (NIR) and one simulated set. The selective and predictive performances of the variable reduction methods are compared statistically using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. The three newly developed PPRVR-CAM methods were able to retain

  4. Modeling of carbon sequestration in coal-beds: A variable saturated simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Guoxiang; Smirnov, Andrei V.

    2008-01-01

    Storage of carbon dioxide in deep coal seams is a profitable method to reduce the concentration of green house gases in the atmosphere while the methane as a byproduct can be extracted during carbon dioxide injection into the coal seam. In this procedure, the key element is to keep carbon dioxide in the coal seam without escaping for a long term. It is depended on many factors such as properties of coal basin, fracture state, phase equilibrium, etc., especially the porosity, permeability and saturation of the coal seam. In this paper, a variable saturation model was developed to predict the capacity of carbon dioxide sequestration and coal-bed methane recovery. This variable saturation model can be used to track the saturation variability with the partial pressures change caused by carbon dioxide injection. Saturation variability is a key factor to predict the capacity of carbon dioxide storage and methane recovery. Based on this variable saturation model, a set of related variables including capillary pressure, relative permeability, porosity, coupled adsorption model, concentration and temperature equations were solved. From results of the simulation, historical data agree with the variable saturation model as well as the adsorption model constructed by Langmuir equations. The Appalachian basin, as an example, modeled the carbon dioxide sequestration in this paper. The results of the study and the developed models can provide the projections for the CO 2 sequestration and methane recovery in coal-beds within different regional specifics

  5. QUANTIFYING SUBGRID POLLUTANT VARIABILITY IN EULERIAN AIR QUALITY MODELS

    Science.gov (United States)

    In order to properly assess human risk due to exposure to hazardous air pollutants or air toxics, detailed information is needed on the location and magnitude of ambient air toxic concentrations. Regional scale Eulerian air quality models are typically limited to relatively coar...

  6. Modeling Selected Climatic Variables in Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-09-01

    Sep 1, 2013 ... The aim of this study was fitting the modified generalized burr density function to total rainfall and temperature data obtained from the meteorological unit in the Department of. Environmental Modelling and Management of the Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria. (FRIN) in Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.

  7. Modelling and Internal Fuzzy Model Power Control of a Francis Water Turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klemen Nagode

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents dynamic modelling of a Francis turbine with a surge tank and the control of a hydro power plant (HPP. Non-linear and linear models include technical parameters and show high similarity to measurement data. Turbine power control with an internal model control (IMC is proposed, based on a turbine fuzzy model. Considering appropriate control responses in the entire area of turbine power, the model parameters of the process are determined from a fuzzy model, which are further included in the internal model controller. The results are compared to a proportional-integral (PI controller tuned with an integral absolute error (IAE objective function, and show an improved response of internal model control.

  8. Mathematical models in Slowpoke reactor internal irradiation site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raza, J.

    2007-01-01

    The main objective is to build representative mathematical models of neutron activation analysis in a Slowpoke internal irradiation site. Another significant objective is to correct various elements neutron activation analysis measured mass using these models. The neutron flux perturbation is responsible for the measured under-estimation of real masses. We supposed that neutron flux perturbation measurements taken during the Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal Slowpoke reactor first fuel loading were still valid after the second fuelling. .We also supposed that the thermal neutrons spatial and kinetic energies distributions as well as the absorption microscopic cross section dependence on the neutrons kinetic energies were important factors to satisfactorily represent neutron activation analysis results. In addition, we assumed that the neutron flux is isotropic in the laboratory system. We used experimental results from the Slowpoke reactor internal irradiation sites, in order to validate our mathematical models. Our models results are in close agreement with these experimental results..We established an accurate global mathematical correlation of the neutron flux perturbation in function of samples volumes and macroscopic neutron absorption cross sections. It is applicable to sample volumes ranging from 0,1 to 1,3 ml and macroscopic neutron absorption cross section up to 5 moles-b for seven (7) elements with atomic numbers (Z) ranging from 5 to 79. We first came up with a heuristic neutron transport mathematical semi-analytical model, in order to better understand neutrons behaviour in presence of one of several different nuclei samples volumes and mass. In order to well represent the neutron flux perturbation, we combined a neutron transport solution obtained from the spherical harmonics method of a finite cylinder and a mathematical expression combining two cylindrical harmonic functions..With the help of this model and the least squares method, we made extensive

  9. Modelling the co-evolution of indirect genetic effects and inherited variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marjanovic, Jovana; Mulder, Han A; Rönnegård, Lars; Bijma, Piter

    2018-03-28

    When individuals interact, their phenotypes may be affected not only by their own genes but also by genes in their social partners. This phenomenon is known as Indirect Genetic Effects (IGEs). In aquaculture species and some plants, however, competition not only affects trait levels of individuals, but also inflates variability of trait values among individuals. In the field of quantitative genetics, the variability of trait values has been studied as a quantitative trait in itself, and is often referred to as inherited variability. Such studies, however, consider only the genetic effect of the focal individual on trait variability and do not make a connection to competition. Although the observed phenotypic relationship between competition and variability suggests an underlying genetic relationship, the current quantitative genetic models of IGE and inherited variability do not allow for such a relationship. The lack of quantitative genetic models that connect IGEs to inherited variability limits our understanding of the potential of variability to respond to selection, both in nature and agriculture. Models of trait levels, for example, show that IGEs may considerably change heritable variation in trait values. Currently, we lack the tools to investigate whether this result extends to variability of trait values. Here we present a model that integrates IGEs and inherited variability. In this model, the target phenotype, say growth rate, is a function of the genetic and environmental effects of the focal individual and of the difference in trait value between the social partner and the focal individual, multiplied by a regression coefficient. The regression coefficient is a genetic trait, which is a measure of cooperation; a negative value indicates competition, a positive value cooperation, and an increasing value due to selection indicates the evolution of cooperation. In contrast to the existing quantitative genetic models, our model allows for co-evolution of

  10. International Digital Elevation Model Service (IDEMS): A Revived IAG Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, K. M.; Hirt, C., , Dr; Kuhn, M.; Barzaghi, R.

    2017-12-01

    A newly developed International Digital Elevation Model Service (IDEMS) is now available under the umbrella of the International Gravity Field Service of the International Association of Geodesy. Hosted and operated by Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri) (http://www.esri.com/), the new IDEMS website is available at: https://idems.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html. IDEMS provides a focus for distribution of data and information about various digital elevation models, including spherical-harmonic models of Earth's global topography and lunar and planetary DEM. Related datasets, such as representation of inland water within DEMs, and relevant software which are available in the public domain are also provided. Currently, IDEMS serves as repository of links to providers of global terrain and bathymetry, terrain related Earth models and datasets such as digital elevation data services managed and maintained by Esri (Terrain and TopoBathy), Bedmap2-Ice thickness and subglacial topographic model of Antarctica and Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation ICESat/GLAS Data, as well as planetary terrain data provided by PDS Geosciences Node at Washington University, St. Louis. These services provide online access to a collection of multi-resolution and multi-source elevation and bathymetry data, including metadata and source information. In addition to IDEMS current holdings of terrestrial and planetary DEMs, some topography related products IDEMS may include in future are: dynamic ocean topography, 3D crustal density models, Earth's dynamic topography, etc. IDEMS may also consider terrain related products such as quality assessments, global terrain corrections, global height anomaly-to-geoid height corrections and other geodesy-relevant studies and products. IDEMS encourages contributions to the site from the geodetic community in any of the product types listed above. Please contact the authors if you would like to contribute or recommend content you think appropriate for

  11. Analytical Model for LLC Resonant Converter With Variable Duty-Cycle Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shen, Yanfeng; Wang, Huai; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    are identified and discussed. The proposed model enables a better understanding of the operation characteristics and fast parameter design of the LLC converter, which otherwise cannot be achieved by the existing simulation based methods and numerical models. The results obtained from the proposed model......In LLC resonant converters, the variable duty-cycle control is usually combined with a variable frequency control to widen the gain range, improve the light-load efficiency, or suppress the inrush current during start-up. However, a proper analytical model for the variable duty-cycle controlled LLC...... converter is still not available due to the complexity of operation modes and the nonlinearity of steady-state equations. This paper makes the efforts to develop an analytical model for the LLC converter with variable duty-cycle control. All possible operation models and critical operation characteristics...

  12. Variability of individual normal tissue radiation sensitivity. An international empirical evaluation of endogenous and exogenous

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmermann, J.S.; Kumpf, L.; Kimmig, B.

    1998-01-01

    Background: The variability of normal-tissue response is of major concern for radiation therapy. Multiple endogenous and exogenous factors are qualitatively known to alter the acute and late tissue response. Which of them are regarded most important by the European radiation oncologists and what is, empirically, their quantitative influence on the acute or late tissue tolerance? Methods: In August 1997, we sent a questionnaire to 255 European radiation oncology departments. Among others, the questionnaire asked for endogenous and exogenous factors modifying the tissue response to radiation therapy and their quantitative influence on the acute and late radiation morbidity (TD5/5). Fifty-five questionnaires (21.5%) were answered. Results: Empirically, the most important endogenous factors to modify the acute tissue tolerance are (a) metabolic/other diseases with macro- or microangiopathia (17 answers [a]/32% mean decrease of tissue tolerance), (b) collagen diseases (9 a/37%) and (c) immune diseases (5 a/53%). As endogenous response modifiers for the TD5/5 are recognized (a) metabolic or other diseases leading to marcro- or microangiopathia (15 a/31%), (b) collagen diseases (11 a/38%) and (c) immune diseases (2 a/50%). Inflammations from any reason are assumed to alter the acute tissue tolerance by (6 a/26%) and the TD5/5 by (10 a/24%). Exogenous modifiers of the acute tissue response mentioned are (a) smoking (34 a/44%), (b) alcohol (23 a/45%), (c) nutrition/diets (16 a/45%), (d) hygiene (9 a/26%) and (e) medical therapies (10 a/37%). Exogenous factors assumed to influence the TD5/5 are (a) smoking (22 a/40%), (b) alcohol (15 a/38%), (c) nutrition/diets (9 a/48%), (d) hygiene (5 a/34%) and (e) medical therapies (10 a/30%). Conclusions: Exogenous factors are regarded more important by number and extent on the acute and late tissue response than endogenous modifiers. Both may have an important influence on the individual expression of normal tissue response. (orig

  13. An International Trade Model with Entrepreneurs and Financial Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olai Hansen, Bodil; Keiding, Hans

    2016-01-01

    We consider a two-period model of a three-country world with free trade in finished products and some factor mobility, where production is subject to uncertainty. Enterpreneurs may establish production in other countries but can obtain financing only in the country of origin. In this model, integ......, integrating production across countries, in particular integrating economically strong and weak partners, may give rise to a welfare loss, showing that traditional views on efficiency of international trade must be reconsidered when risk and uncertainty are taken into account....

  14. Studying and modelling variable density turbulent flows for industrial applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chabard, J.P.; Simonin, O.; Caruso, A.; Delalondre, C.; Dalsecco, S.; Mechitoua, N.

    1996-07-01

    Industrial applications are presented in the various fields of interest for EDF. A first example deals with transferred electric arcs couplings flow and thermal transfer in the arc and in the bath of metal and is related with applications of electricity. The second one is the combustion modelling in burners of fossil power plants. The last one comes from the nuclear power plants and concerns the stratified flows in a nuclear reactor building. (K.A.). 18 refs.

  15. Studying and modelling variable density turbulent flows for industrial applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabard, J.P.; Simonin, O.; Caruso, A.; Delalondre, C.; Dalsecco, S.; Mechitoua, N.

    1996-07-01

    Industrial applications are presented in the various fields of interest for EDF. A first example deals with transferred electric arcs couplings flow and thermal transfer in the arc and in the bath of metal and is related with applications of electricity. The second one is the combustion modelling in burners of fossil power plants. The last one comes from the nuclear power plants and concerns the stratified flows in a nuclear reactor building. (K.A.)

  16. Panel data models extended to spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    2001-01-01

    This paper surveys panel data models extended to spatial error autocorrelation or a spatially lagged dependent variable. In particular, it focuses on the specification and estimation of four panel data models commonly used in applied research: the fixed effects model, the random effects model, the

  17. The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessler, Andrew E.; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

    2018-04-01

    Our climate is constrained by the balance between solar energy absorbed by the Earth and terrestrial energy radiated to space. This energy balance has been widely used to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from observations of 20th-century warming. Such estimates yield lower values than other methods, and these have been influential in pushing down the consensus ECS range in recent assessments. Here we test the method using a 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.1) simulations of the period 1850-2005 with known forcing. We calculate ECS in each ensemble member using energy balance, yielding values ranging from 2.1 to 3.9 K. The spread in the ensemble is related to the central assumption in the energy budget framework: that global average surface temperature anomalies are indicative of anomalies in outgoing energy (either of terrestrial origin or reflected solar energy). We find that this assumption is not well supported over the historical temperature record in the model ensemble or more recent satellite observations. We find that framing energy balance in terms of 500 hPa tropical temperature better describes the planet's energy balance.

  18. Modeling variability in dendritic ice crystal backscattering cross sections at millimeter wavelengths using a modified Rayleigh–Gans theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Yinghui; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Aydin, Kültegin; Botta, Giovanni; Verlinde, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    Using the Generalized Multi-particle Mie-method (GMM), Botta et al. (in this issue) [7] created a database of backscattering cross sections for 412 different ice crystal dendrites at X-, Ka- and W-band wavelengths for different incident angles. The Rayleigh–Gans theory, which accounts for interference effects but ignores interactions between different parts of an ice crystal, explains much, but not all, of the variability in the database of backscattering cross sections. Differences between it and the GMM range from −3.5 dB to +2.5 dB and are highly dependent on the incident angle. To explain the residual variability a physically intuitive iterative method was developed to estimate the internal electric field within an ice crystal that accounts for interactions between the neighboring regions within it. After modifying the Rayleigh–Gans theory using this estimated internal electric field, the difference between the estimated backscattering cross sections and those from the GMM method decreased to within 0.5 dB for most of the ice crystals. The largest percentage differences occur when the form factor from the Rayleigh–Gans theory is close to zero. Both interference effects and neighbor interactions are sensitive to the morphology of ice crystals. Improvements in ice-microphysical models are necessary to predict or diagnose internal structures within ice crystals to aid in more accurate interpretation of radar returns. Observations of the morphology of ice crystals are, in turn, necessary to guide the development of such ice-microphysical models and to better understand the statistical properties of ice crystal morphologies in different environmental conditions. -- Highlights: • Significant variability exists in radar backscattering cross sections of dendrites. • Source of variability depends upon detailed distribution of mass within dendrites. • The Rayleigh–Gans theory (RG) captures most of the variability. • Improving RG by estimating dendrite

  19. Four-Stroke, Internal Combustion Engine Performance Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Richard C.

    In this thesis, two models of four-stroke, internal combustion engines are created and compared. The first model predicts the intake and exhaust processes using isentropic flow equations augmented by discharge coefficients. The second model predicts the intake and exhaust processes using a compressible, time-accurate, Quasi-One-Dimensional (Q1D) approach. Both models employ the same heat release and reduced-order modeling of the cylinder charge. Both include friction and cylinder loss models so that the predicted performance values can be compared to measurements. The results indicate that the isentropic-based model neglects important fluid mechanics and returns inaccurate results. The Q1D flow model, combined with the reduced-order model of the cylinder charge, is able to capture the dominant intake and exhaust fluid mechanics and produces results that compare well with measurement. Fluid friction, convective heat transfer, piston ring and skirt friction and temperature-varying specific heats in the working fluids are all shown to be significant factors in engine performance predictions. Charge blowby is shown to play a lesser role.

  20. AeroPropulsoServoElasticity: Dynamic Modeling of the Variable Cycle Propulsion System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopasakis, George

    2012-01-01

    This presentation was made at the 2012 Fundamental Aeronautics Program Technical Conference and it covers research work for the Dynamic Modeling of the Variable cycle Propulsion System that was done under the Supersonics Project, in the area of AeroPropulsoServoElasticity. The presentation covers the objective for the propulsion system dynamic modeling work, followed by the work that has been done so far to model the variable Cycle Engine, modeling of the inlet, the nozzle, the modeling that has been done to model the affects of flow distortion, and finally presenting some concluding remarks and future plans.

  1. Adaptive filters and internal models: multilevel description of cerebellar function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porrill, John; Dean, Paul; Anderson, Sean R

    2013-11-01

    Cerebellar function is increasingly discussed in terms of engineering schemes for motor control and signal processing that involve internal models. To address the relation between the cerebellum and internal models, we adopt the chip metaphor that has been used to represent the combination of a homogeneous cerebellar cortical microcircuit with individual microzones having unique external connections. This metaphor indicates that identifying the function of a particular cerebellar chip requires knowledge of both the general microcircuit algorithm and the chip's individual connections. Here we use a popular candidate algorithm as embodied in the adaptive filter, which learns to decorrelate its inputs from a reference ('teaching', 'error') signal. This algorithm is computationally powerful enough to be used in a very wide variety of engineering applications. However, the crucial issue is whether the external connectivity required by such applications can be implemented biologically. We argue that some applications appear to be in principle biologically implausible: these include the Smith predictor and Kalman filter (for state estimation), and the feedback-error-learning scheme for adaptive inverse control. However, even for plausible schemes, such as forward models for noise cancellation and novelty-detection, and the recurrent architecture for adaptive inverse control, there is unlikely to be a simple mapping between microzone function and internal model structure. This initial analysis suggests that cerebellar involvement in particular behaviours is therefore unlikely to have a neat classification into categories such as 'forward model'. It is more likely that cerebellar microzones learn a task-specific adaptive-filter operation which combines a number of signal-processing roles. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Investigation of international energy economics. [Use of econometric model EXPLOR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deonigi, D.E.; Clement, M.; Foley, T.J.; Rao, S.A.

    1977-03-01

    The Division of International Affairs of the Energy Research and Development Administration is assessing the long-range economic effects of energy research and development programs in the U.S. and other countries, particularly members of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In support of this effort, a program was designed to coordinate the capabilities of five research groups--Rand, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The program could evaluate the international economics of proposed or anticipated sources of energy. This program is designed to be general, flexible, and capable of evaluating a diverse collection of potential energy (nuclear and nonnuclear) related problems. For example, the newly developed methodology could evaluate the international and domestic economic impact of nuclear-related energy sources, but also existing nonnuclear and potential energy sources such as solar, geothermal, wind, etc. Major items to be included would be the cost of exploration, cost of production, prices, profit, market penetration, investment requirements and investment goods, economic growth, change in balance of payments, etc. In addition, the changes in cost of producing all goods and services would be identified for each new energy source. PNL developed (1) a means of estimating the demands for major forms of energy by country, and (2) a means of identifying results or impacts on each country. The results for each country were then to be compared to assess relative advantages. PNL relied on its existing general econometric model, EXPLOR, to forecast the demand for energy by country. (MCW)

  3. FinFET centric variability-aware compact model extraction and generation technology supporting DTCO

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Xingsheng; Cheng, Binjie; Reid, David; Pender, Andrew; Asenov, Plamen; Millar, Campbell; Asenov, Asen

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a FinFET-focused variability-aware compact model (CM) extraction and generation technology supporting design-technology co-optimization. The 14-nm CMOS technology generation silicon on insulator FinFETs are used as testbed transistors to illustrate our approach. The TCAD simulations include a long-range process-induced variability using a design of experiment approach and short-range purely statistical variability (mismatch). The CM extraction supports a hierarchical...

  4. A Riccati model for Denmark Strait overflow variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Käse, R. H.

    2006-10-01

    A controlled volume box model of the western basins of the Nordic Seas for water denser than 1027.8 kg m-3 is constructed, where accumulation in volume ($\\frac{dV}{dt) is driven by net imbalances between prescribed net inflow from the northern, eastern and top boundaries (Qs) and hydraulically limited outflow through the Denmark Strait. The resulting Riccati equation is solved analytically for filling and flushing experiments with constant Qs and numerically for stochastic forcing Qs(t). For small perturbations to Qs with white noise spectrum, the overflow response is red noise with a time scale between 5 and 15 years depending on the mean interface height and area. For Qs proportional to the NAO index, the overflow is positively correlated with the NAO. A 140 years integration reveals variations in the overflow between 2.5 Sv in the 1970s and a maximum of 4 Sv in the 1990s. Hydraulic transport calculations from hydrographic data north of Iceland show good agreement with the model hindcast.

  5. OUTLIER DETECTION IN PARTIAL ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JUN ZHAO

    Full Text Available The weighed total least square (WTLS estimate is very sensitive to the outliers in the partial EIV model. A new procedure for detecting outliers based on the data-snooping is presented in this paper. Firstly, a two-step iterated method of computing the WTLS estimates for the partial EIV model based on the standard LS theory is proposed. Secondly, the corresponding w-test statistics are constructed to detect outliers while the observations and coefficient matrix are contaminated with outliers, and a specific algorithm for detecting outliers is suggested. When the variance factor is unknown, it may be estimated by the least median squares (LMS method. At last, the simulated data and real data about two-dimensional affine transformation are analyzed. The numerical results show that the new test procedure is able to judge that the outliers locate in x component, y component or both components in coordinates while the observations and coefficient matrix are contaminated with outliers

  6. Analytical model of cracking due to rebar corrosion expansion in concrete considering the structure internal force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Xiangyue; Peng, Minli; Lei, Fengming; Tan, Jiangxian; Shi, Huacheng

    2017-12-01

    Based on the assumptions of uniform corrosion and linear elastic expansion, an analytical model of cracking due to rebar corrosion expansion in concrete was established, which is able to consider the structure internal force. And then, by means of the complex variable function theory and series expansion technology established by Muskhelishvili, the corresponding stress component functions of concrete around the reinforcement were obtained. Also, a comparative analysis was conducted between the numerical simulation model and present model in this paper. The results show that the calculation results of both methods were consistent with each other, and the numerical deviation was less than 10%, proving that the analytical model established in this paper is reliable.

  7. Impulsive synchronization and parameter mismatch of the three-variable autocatalator model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yang; Liao, Xiaofeng; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Yang, Degang

    2007-01-01

    The synchronization problems of the three-variable autocatalator model via impulsive control approach are investigated; several theorems on the stability of impulsive control systems are also investigated. These theorems are then used to find the conditions under which the three-variable autocatalator model can be asymptotically controlled to the equilibrium point. This Letter derives some sufficient conditions for the stabilization and synchronization of a three-variable autocatalator model via impulsive control with varying impulsive intervals. Furthermore, we address the chaos quasi-synchronization in the presence of single-parameter mismatch. To illustrate the effectiveness of the new scheme, several numerical examples are given

  8. A latent class distance association model for cross-classified data with a categorical response variable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vera, José Fernando; de Rooij, Mark; Heiser, Willem J

    2014-11-01

    In this paper we propose a latent class distance association model for clustering in the predictor space of large contingency tables with a categorical response variable. The rows of such a table are characterized as profiles of a set of explanatory variables, while the columns represent a single outcome variable. In many cases such tables are sparse, with many zero entries, which makes traditional models problematic. By clustering the row profiles into a few specific classes and representing these together with the categories of the response variable in a low-dimensional Euclidean space using a distance association model, a parsimonious prediction model can be obtained. A generalized EM algorithm is proposed to estimate the model parameters and the adjusted Bayesian information criterion statistic is employed to test the number of mixture components and the dimensionality of the representation. An empirical example highlighting the advantages of the new approach and comparing it with traditional approaches is presented. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  9. Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

    2017-03-01

    The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the

  10. On the Use of Variability Operations in the V-Modell XT Software Process Line

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuhrmann, Marco; Méndez Fernández, Daniel; Ternité, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    . In this article, we present a study on the feasibility of variability operations to support the development of software process lines in the context of the V-Modell XT. We analyze which variability operations are defined and practically used. We provide an initial catalog of variability operations...... as an improvement proposal for other process models. Our findings show that 69 variability operation types are defined across several metamodel versions of which, however, 25 remain unused. The found variability operations allow for systematically modifying the content of process model elements and the process......Software process lines provide a systematic approach to develop and manage software processes. It defines a reference process containing general process assets, whereas a well-defined customization approach allows process engineers to create new process variants, e.g., by extending or modifying...

  11. Hybrid continuum–molecular modelling of multiscale internal gas flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patronis, Alexander; Lockerby, Duncan A.; Borg, Matthew K.; Reese, Jason M.

    2013-01-01

    We develop and apply an efficient multiscale method for simulating a large class of low-speed internal rarefied gas flows. The method is an extension of the hybrid atomistic–continuum approach proposed by Borg et al. (2013) [28] for the simulation of micro/nano flows of high-aspect ratio. The major new extensions are: (1) incorporation of fluid compressibility; (2) implementation using the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for dilute rarefied gas flows, and (3) application to a broader range of geometries, including periodic, non-periodic, pressure-driven, gravity-driven and shear-driven internal flows. The multiscale method is applied to micro-scale gas flows through a periodic converging–diverging channel (driven by an external acceleration) and a non-periodic channel with a bend (driven by a pressure difference), as well as the flow between two eccentric cylinders (with the inner rotating relative to the outer). In all these cases there exists a wide variation of Knudsen number within the geometries, as well as substantial compressibility despite the Mach number being very low. For validation purposes, our multiscale simulation results are compared to those obtained from full-scale DSMC simulations: very close agreement is obtained in all cases for all flow variables considered. Our multiscale simulation is an order of magnitude more computationally efficient than the full-scale DSMC for the first and second test cases, and two orders of magnitude more efficient for the third case

  12. Representing general theoretical concepts in structural equation models: The role of composite variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, J.B.; Bollen, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Structural equation modeling (SEM) holds the promise of providing natural scientists the capacity to evaluate complex multivariate hypotheses about ecological systems. Building on its predecessors, path analysis and factor analysis, SEM allows for the incorporation of both observed and unobserved (latent) variables into theoretically-based probabilistic models. In this paper we discuss the interface between theory and data in SEM and the use of an additional variable type, the composite. In simple terms, composite variables specify the influences of collections of other variables and can be helpful in modeling heterogeneous concepts of the sort commonly of interest to ecologists. While long recognized as a potentially important element of SEM, composite variables have received very limited use, in part because of a lack of theoretical consideration, but also because of difficulties that arise in parameter estimation when using conventional solution procedures. In this paper we present a framework for discussing composites and demonstrate how the use of partially-reduced-form models can help to overcome some of the parameter estimation and evaluation problems associated with models containing composites. Diagnostic procedures for evaluating the most appropriate and effective use of composites are illustrated with an example from the ecological literature. It is argued that an ability to incorporate composite variables into structural equation models may be particularly valuable in the study of natural systems, where concepts are frequently multifaceted and the influence of suites of variables are often of interest. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

  13. A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun-He; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Chan, Chia-Pan

    2017-01-01

    Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir's water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir's water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.

  14. A Time-Series Water Level Forecasting Model Based on Imputation and Variable Selection Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-He Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Reservoirs are important for households and impact the national economy. This paper proposed a time-series forecasting model based on estimating a missing value followed by variable selection to forecast the reservoir’s water level. This study collected data from the Taiwan Shimen Reservoir as well as daily atmospheric data from 2008 to 2015. The two datasets are concatenated into an integrated dataset based on ordering of the data as a research dataset. The proposed time-series forecasting model summarily has three foci. First, this study uses five imputation methods to directly delete the missing value. Second, we identified the key variable via factor analysis and then deleted the unimportant variables sequentially via the variable selection method. Finally, the proposed model uses a Random Forest to build the forecasting model of the reservoir’s water level. This was done to compare with the listing method under the forecasting error. These experimental results indicate that the Random Forest forecasting model when applied to variable selection with full variables has better forecasting performance than the listing model. In addition, this experiment shows that the proposed variable selection can help determine five forecast methods used here to improve the forecasting capability.

  15. The models of internal dose calculation in ICRP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakano, Takashi

    1995-01-01

    There are a lot discussions about internal dose calculation in ICRP. Many efforts are devoted to improvement in models and parameters. In this report, we discuss what kind of models and parameters are used in ICRP. Models are divided into two parts, the dosimetric model and biokinetic model. The former is a mathematical phantom model, and it is mainly developed in ORNL. The results are used in many researchers. The latter is a compartment model and it has a difficulty to decide the parameter values. They are not easy to estimate because of their age dependency. ICRP officially sets values at ages of 3 month, 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, 15 year and adult, and recommends to get values among ages by linear age interpolate. But it is very difficult to solve the basic equation with these values, so we calculate by use of computers. However, it has complex shame and needs long CPU time. We should make approximated equations. The parameter values include much uncertainty because of less experimental data, especially for a child. And these models and parameter values are for Caucasian. We should inquire whether they could correctly describe other than Caucasian. The body size affects the values of calculated SAF, and the differences of metabolism change the biokinetic pattern. (author)

  16. Micro-macro multilevel latent class models with multiple discrete individual-level variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bennink, M.; Croon, M.A.; Kroon, B.; Vermunt, J.K.

    2016-01-01

    An existing micro-macro method for a single individual-level variable is extended to the multivariate situation by presenting two multilevel latent class models in which multiple discrete individual-level variables are used to explain a group-level outcome. As in the univariate case, the

  17. Theoretical investigations of the new Cokriging method for variable-fidelity surrogate modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zimmermann, Ralf; Bertram, Anna

    2018-01-01

    Cokriging is a variable-fidelity surrogate modeling technique which emulates a target process based on the spatial correlation of sampled data of different levels of fidelity. In this work, we address two theoretical questions associated with the so-called new Cokriging method for variable fidelity...

  18. The use of vector bootstrapping to improve variable selection precision in Lasso models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laurin, C.; Boomsma, D.I.; Lubke, G.H.

    2016-01-01

    The Lasso is a shrinkage regression method that is widely used for variable selection in statistical genetics. Commonly, K-fold cross-validation is used to fit a Lasso model. This is sometimes followed by using bootstrap confidence intervals to improve precision in the resulting variable selections.

  19. Sensitivity Modeling of On-chip Capacitances : Parasitics Extraction for Manufacturing Variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bi, Y.

    2012-01-01

    With each new generation of IC process technologies, the impact of manufacturing variability is increasing. As such, design optimality is harder and harder to achieve and effective modeling tools and methods are needed to capture the effects of variability in such a way that it is understandable and

  20. Separation of variables in anisotropic models: anisotropic Rabi and elliptic Gaudin model in an external magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skrypnyk, T.

    2017-08-01

    We study the problem of separation of variables for classical integrable Hamiltonian systems governed by non-skew-symmetric non-dynamical so(3)\\otimes so(3) -valued elliptic r-matrices with spectral parameters. We consider several examples of such models, and perform separation of variables for classical anisotropic one- and two-spin Gaudin-type models in an external magnetic field, and for Jaynes-Cummings-Dicke-type models without the rotating wave approximation.

  1. Quasilinear Extreme Learning Machine Model Based Internal Model Control for Nonlinear Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dazi Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A new strategy for internal model control (IMC is proposed using a regression algorithm of quasilinear model with extreme learning machine (QL-ELM. Aimed at the chemical process with nonlinearity, the learning process of the internal model and inverse model is derived. The proposed QL-ELM is constructed as a linear ARX model with a complicated nonlinear coefficient. It shows some good approximation ability and fast convergence. The complicated coefficients are separated into two parts. The linear part is determined by recursive least square (RLS, while the nonlinear part is identified through extreme learning machine. The parameters of linear part and the output weights of ELM are estimated iteratively. The proposed internal model control is applied to CSTR process. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are extensively verified through numerical results.

  2. Modeling of Mesoscale Variability in Biofilm Shear Behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pallab Barai

    Full Text Available Formation of bacterial colonies as biofilm on the surface/interface of various objects has the potential to impact not only human health and disease but also energy and environmental considerations. Biofilms can be regarded as soft materials, and comprehension of their shear response to external forces is a key element to the fundamental understanding. A mesoscale model has been presented in this article based on digitization of a biofilm microstructure. Its response under externally applied shear load is analyzed. Strain stiffening type behavior is readily observed under high strain loads due to the unfolding of chains within soft polymeric substrate. Sustained shear loading of the biofilm network results in strain localization along the diagonal direction. Rupture of the soft polymeric matrix can potentially reduce the intercellular interaction between the bacterial cells. Evolution of stiffness within the biofilm network under shear reveals two regimes: a initial increase in stiffness due to strain stiffening of polymer matrix, and b eventual reduction in stiffness because of tear in polymeric substrate.

  3. a Latent Variable Path Analysis Model of Secondary Physics Enrollments in New York State.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolewski, Stanley John

    The Percentage of Enrollment in Physics (PEP) at the secondary level nationally has been approximately 20% for the past few decades. For a more scientifically literate citizenry as well as specialists to continue scientific research and development, it is desirable that more students enroll in physics. Some of the predictor variables for physics enrollment and physics achievement that have been identified previously includes a community's socioeconomic status, the availability of physics, the sex of the student, the curriculum, as well as teacher and student data. This study isolated and identified predictor variables for PEP of secondary schools in New York. Data gathered by the State Education Department for the 1990-1991 school year was used. The source of this data included surveys completed by teachers and administrators on student characteristics and school facilities. A data analysis similar to that done by Bryant (1974) was conducted to determine if the relationships between a set of predictor variables related to physics enrollment had changed in the past 20 years. Variables which were isolated included: community, facilities, teacher experience, number of type of science courses, school size and school science facilities. When these variables were isolated, latent variable path diagrams were proposed and verified by the Linear Structural Relations computer modeling program (LISREL). These diagrams differed from those developed by Bryant in that there were more manifest variables used which included achievement scores in the form of Regents exam results. Two criterion variables were used, percentage of students enrolled in physics (PEP) and percent of students enrolled passing the Regents physics exam (PPP). The first model treated school and community level variables as exogenous while the second model treated only the community level variables as exogenous. The goodness of fit indices for the models was 0.77 for the first model and 0.83 for the second

  4. Observing and modeling nonlinear dynamics in an internal combustion engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daw, C.S.; Kennel, M.B.; Finney, C.E.; Connolly, F.T.

    1998-01-01

    We propose a low-dimensional, physically motivated, nonlinear map as a model for cyclic combustion variation in spark-ignited internal combustion engines. A key feature is the interaction between stochastic, small-scale fluctuations in engine parameters and nonlinear deterministic coupling between successive engine cycles. Residual cylinder gas from each cycle alters the in-cylinder fuel-air ratio and thus the combustion efficiency in succeeding cycles. The model close-quote s simplicity allows rapid simulation of thousands of engine cycles, permitting statistical studies of cyclic-variation patterns and providing physical insight into this technologically important phenomenon. Using symbol statistics to characterize the noisy dynamics, we find good quantitative matches between our model and experimental time-series measurements. copyright 1998 The American Physical Society

  5. Seismic variability of subduction thrust faults: Insights from laboratory models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbi, F.; Funiciello, F.; Faccenna, C.; Ranalli, G.; Heuret, A.

    2011-06-01

    Laboratory models are realized to investigate the role of interface roughness, driving rate, and pressure on friction dynamics. The setup consists of a gelatin block driven at constant velocity over sand paper. The interface roughness is quantified in terms of amplitude and wavelength of protrusions, jointly expressed by a reference roughness parameter obtained by their product. Frictional behavior shows a systematic dependence on system parameters. Both stick slip and stable sliding occur, depending on driving rate and interface roughness. Stress drop and frequency of slip episodes vary directly and inversely, respectively, with the reference roughness parameter, reflecting the fundamental role for the amplitude of protrusions. An increase in pressure tends to favor stick slip. Static friction is a steeply decreasing function of the reference roughness parameter. The velocity strengthening/weakening parameter in the state- and rate-dependent dynamic friction law becomes negative for specific values of the reference roughness parameter which are intermediate with respect to the explored range. Despite the simplifications of the adopted setup, which does not address the problem of off-fault fracturing, a comparison of the experimental results with the depth distribution of seismic energy release along subduction thrust faults leads to the hypothesis that their behavior is primarily controlled by the depth- and time-dependent distribution of protrusions. A rough subduction fault at shallow depths, unable to produce significant seismicity because of low lithostatic pressure, evolves into a moderately rough, velocity-weakening fault at intermediate depths. The magnitude of events in this range is calibrated by the interplay between surface roughness and subduction rate. At larger depths, the roughness further decreases and stable sliding becomes gradually more predominant. Thus, although interplate seismicity is ultimately controlled by tectonic parameters (velocity of

  6. Time series pCO2 at a coastal mooring: Internal consistency, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Janet J.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Xue, Liang; Vargas, Rodrigo; Noakes, Scott; Hu, Xinping; Signorini, Sergio R.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Feely, Richard A.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sabine, Christopher; Musielewicz, Sylvia; Chen, Baoshan; Wanninkhof, Rik

    2017-08-01

    Marine carbonate system monitoring programs often consist of multiple observational methods that include underway cruise data, moored autonomous time series, and discrete water bottle samples. Monitored parameters include all, or some of the following: partial pressure of CO2 of the water (pCO2w) and air, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), and pH. Any combination of at least two of the aforementioned parameters can be used to calculate the others. In this study at the Gray's Reef (GR) mooring in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) we: examine the internal consistency of pCO2w from underway cruise, moored autonomous time series, and calculated from bottle samples (DIC-TA pairing); describe the seasonal to interannual pCO2w time series variability and air-sea flux (FCO2), as well as describe the potential sources of pCO2w variability; and determine the source/sink for atmospheric pCO2. Over the 8.5 years of GR mooring time series, mooring-underway and mooring-bottle calculated-pCO2w strongly correlate with r-values > 0.90. pCO2w and FCO2 time series follow seasonal thermal patterns; however, seasonal non-thermal processes, such as terrestrial export, net biological production, and air-sea exchange also influence variability. The linear slope of time series pCO2w increases by 5.2 ± 1.4 μatm y-1 with FCO2 increasing 51-70 mmol m-2 y-1. The net FCO2 sign can switch interannually with the magnitude varying greatly. Non-thermal pCO2w is also increasing over the time series, likely indicating that terrestrial export and net biological processes drive the long term pCO2w increase.

  7. Predictive and Descriptive CoMFA Models: The Effect of Variable Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepehri, Bakhtyar; Omidikia, Nematollah; Kompany-Zareh, Mohsen; Ghavami, Raouf

    2018-01-01

    Aims & Scope: In this research, 8 variable selection approaches were used to investigate the effect of variable selection on the predictive power and stability of CoMFA models. Three data sets including 36 EPAC antagonists, 79 CD38 inhibitors and 57 ATAD2 bromodomain inhibitors were modelled by CoMFA. First of all, for all three data sets, CoMFA models with all CoMFA descriptors were created then by applying each variable selection method a new CoMFA model was developed so for each data set, 9 CoMFA models were built. Obtained results show noisy and uninformative variables affect CoMFA results. Based on created models, applying 5 variable selection approaches including FFD, SRD-FFD, IVE-PLS, SRD-UVEPLS and SPA-jackknife increases the predictive power and stability of CoMFA models significantly. Among them, SPA-jackknife removes most of the variables while FFD retains most of them. FFD and IVE-PLS are time consuming process while SRD-FFD and SRD-UVE-PLS run need to few seconds. Also applying FFD, SRD-FFD, IVE-PLS, SRD-UVE-PLS protect CoMFA countor maps information for both fields. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  8. Effect of climate variables on cocoa black pod incidence in Sabah using ARIMAX model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling Sheng Chang, Albert; Ramba, Haya; Mohd. Jaaffar, Ahmad Kamil; Kim Phin, Chong; Chong Mun, Ho

    2016-06-01

    Cocoa black pod disease is one of the major diseases affecting the cocoa production in Malaysia and also around the world. Studies have shown that the climate variables have influenced the cocoa black pod disease incidence and it is important to quantify the black pod disease variation due to the effect of climate variables. Application of time series analysis especially auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) model has been widely used in economics study and can be used to quantify the effect of climate variables on black pod incidence to forecast the right time to control the incidence. However, ARIMA model does not capture some turning points in cocoa black pod incidence. In order to improve forecasting performance, other explanatory variables such as climate variables should be included into ARIMA model as ARIMAX model. Therefore, this paper is to study the effect of climate variables on the cocoa black pod disease incidence using ARIMAX model. The findings of the study showed ARIMAX model using MA(1) and relative humidity at lag 7 days, RHt - 7 gave better R square value compared to ARIMA model using MA(1) which could be used to forecast the black pod incidence to assist the farmers determine timely application of fungicide spraying and culture practices to control the black pod incidence.

  9. Modeling Psychological Attributes in Psychology – An Epistemological Discussion: Network Analysis vs. Latent Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyon, Hervé; Falissard, Bruno; Kop, Jean-Luc

    2017-01-01

    Network Analysis is considered as a new method that challenges Latent Variable models in inferring psychological attributes. With Network Analysis, psychological attributes are derived from a complex system of components without the need to call on any latent variables. But the ontological status of psychological attributes is not adequately defined with Network Analysis, because a psychological attribute is both a complex system and a property emerging from this complex system. The aim of this article is to reappraise the legitimacy of latent variable models by engaging in an ontological and epistemological discussion on psychological attributes. Psychological attributes relate to the mental equilibrium of individuals embedded in their social interactions, as robust attractors within complex dynamic processes with emergent properties, distinct from physical entities located in precise areas of the brain. Latent variables thus possess legitimacy, because the emergent properties can be conceptualized and analyzed on the sole basis of their manifestations, without exploring the upstream complex system. However, in opposition with the usual Latent Variable models, this article is in favor of the integration of a dynamic system of manifestations. Latent Variables models and Network Analysis thus appear as complementary approaches. New approaches combining Latent Network Models and Network Residuals are certainly a promising new way to infer psychological attributes, placing psychological attributes in an inter-subjective dynamic approach. Pragmatism-realism appears as the epistemological framework required if we are to use latent variables as representations of psychological attributes. PMID:28572780

  10. Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, Hoby

    2015-04-22

    Finite-fault earthquake source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same earthquake. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture models. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify model variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture models quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of model variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture models. As case studies, we examine inverted models from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published models of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference model and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for models with large variability. We also find that the models for the Tohoku earthquake derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other models. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for

  11. Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, Hoby; Mai, Paul Martin; Genton, Marc G.; Zhang, Ling; Thingbaijam, Kiran Kumar

    2015-01-01

    Finite-fault earthquake source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same earthquake. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture models. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify model variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture models quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of model variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture models. As case studies, we examine inverted models from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published models of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference model and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for models with large variability. We also find that the models for the Tohoku earthquake derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other models. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for

  12. The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, CNRS/GAME, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Sanchez-Gomez, E. [Cerfacs/CNRS, SUC URA1875, Toulouse Cedex 01 (France); Goodess, C.M. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich (United Kingdom); Jacob, D. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lenderink, G. [KNMI, Postbus 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Christensen, O.B. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen Oe (Denmark)

    2012-03-15

    Various combinations of thirteen regional climate models (RCM) and six general circulation models (GCM) were used in FP6-ENSEMBLES. The response to the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas concentration scenario over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2021-2050 and the 1961-1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance explained for temperature and precipitation changes over eight European sub-areas. Three sources of uncertainty can be evaluated from the ENSEMBLES database. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30) despite a non-negligible interannual variability. Regional model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Global model uncertainty is due to the fact that the RCMs have been driven by different GCMs. Two methods are presented to fill the many empty cells of the ENSEMBLES RCM x GCM matrix. The first one is based on the same approach as in FP5-PRUDENCE. The second one uses the concept of weather regimes to attempt to separate the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The variance of the climate response is analyzed with respect to the contribution of the GCM and the RCM. The two filling methods agree that the main contributor to the spread is the choice of the GCM, except for summer precipitation where the choice of the RCM dominates the uncertainty. Of course the implication of the GCM to the spread varies with the region, being maximum in the South-western part of Europe, whereas the continental parts are more sensitive to the choice of the RCM. The third cause of spread is systematically the interannual variability. The total uncertainty about temperature is not large enough to mask the 2021-2050 response which shows a similar pattern to the one obtained for 2071-2100 in PRUDENCE. The uncertainty

  13. Can Geostatistical Models Represent Nature's Variability? An Analysis Using Flume Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheidt, C.; Fernandes, A. M.; Paola, C.; Caers, J.

    2015-12-01

    The lack of understanding in the Earth's geological and physical processes governing sediment deposition render subsurface modeling subject to large uncertainty. Geostatistics is often used to model uncertainty because of its capability to stochastically generate spatially varying realizations of the subsurface. These methods can generate a range of realizations of a given pattern - but how representative are these of the full natural variability? And how can we identify the minimum set of images that represent this natural variability? Here we use this minimum set to define the geostatistical prior model: a set of training images that represent the range of patterns generated by autogenic variability in the sedimentary environment under study. The proper definition of the prior model is essential in capturing the variability of the depositional patterns. This work starts with a set of overhead images from an experimental basin that showed ongoing autogenic variability. We use the images to analyze the essential characteristics of this suite of patterns. In particular, our goal is to define a prior model (a minimal set of selected training images) such that geostatistical algorithms, when applied to this set, can reproduce the full measured variability. A necessary prerequisite is to define a measure of variability. In this study, we measure variability using a dissimilarity distance between the images. The distance indicates whether two snapshots contain similar depositional patterns. To reproduce the variability in the images, we apply an MPS algorithm to the set of selected snapshots of the sedimentary basin that serve as training images. The training images are chosen from among the initial set by using the distance measure to ensure that only dissimilar images are chosen. Preliminary investigations show that MPS can reproduce fairly accurately the natural variability of the experimental depositional system. Furthermore, the selected training images provide

  14. Effective model development of internal auditors in the village financial institution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsana, I. M. M.; Sugiarta, I. N.

    2018-01-01

    Designing an effective audit system is complex and challenging, and a focus on examining how internal audit drive improvement in three core performance dimensions ethicality, efficiency, and effectiveness in organization is needed. The problem of research is how the desain model and peripheral of supporter of effective supervation Village Credit Institution? Research of objectives is yielding the desain model and peripheral of supporter of effective supervation Village Credit Institution. Method Research use data collecting technique interview, observation and enquette. Data analysis, data qualitative before analysed to be turned into quantitative data in the form of scale. Each variable made to become five classificat pursuant to scale of likert. Data analysed descriptively to find supervation level, Structural Equation Model (SEM) to find internal and eksternal factor. So that desain model supervation with descriptive analysis. Result of research desain model and peripheral of supporter of effective supervation Village Credit Institution. The conclusion desain model supported by three sub system: sub system institute yield body supervisor of Village Credit Institution, sub system standardization and working procedure yield standard operating procedure supervisor of Village Credit Institution, sub system education and training yield supervisor professional of Village Credit Institution.

  15. A novel methodology improves reservoir characterization models using geologic fuzzy variables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soto B, Rodolfo [DIGITOIL, Maracaibo (Venezuela); Soto O, David A. [Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States)

    2004-07-01

    One of the research projects carried out in Cusiana field to explain its rapid decline during the last years was to get better permeability models. The reservoir of this field has a complex layered system that it is not easy to model using conventional methods. The new technique included the development of porosity and permeability maps from cored wells following the same trend of the sand depositions for each facie or layer according to the sedimentary facie and the depositional system models. Then, we used fuzzy logic to reproduce those maps in three dimensions as geologic fuzzy variables. After multivariate statistical and factor analyses, we found independence and a good correlation coefficient between the geologic fuzzy variables and core permeability and porosity. This means, the geologic fuzzy variable could explain the fabric, the grain size and the pore geometry of the reservoir rock trough the field. Finally, we developed a neural network permeability model using porosity, gamma ray and the geologic fuzzy variable as input variables. This model has a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.873 and average absolute error of 33% compared with the actual model with a correlation coefficient of 0.511 and absolute error greater than 250%. We tested different methodologies, but this new one showed dramatically be a promiser way to get better permeability models. The use of the models have had a high impact in the explanation of well performance and workovers, and reservoir simulation models. (author)

  16. Startle stimuli reduce the internal model control in discrete movements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Zachary A; Rogers, Mark W; MacKinnon, Colum D; Patton, James L

    2009-01-01

    A well known and major component of movement control is the feedforward component, also known as the internal model. This model predicts and compensates for expected forces seen during a movement, based on recent experience, so that a well-learned task such as reaching to a target can be executed in a smooth straight manner. It has recently been shown that the state of preparation of planned movements can be tested using a startling acoustic stimulus (SAS). SAS, presented 500, 250 or 0 ms before the expected "go" cue resulted in the early release of the movement trajectory associated with the after-effects of the force field training (i.e. the internal model). In a typical motor adaptation experiment with a robot-applied force field, we tested if a SAS stimulus influences the size of after-effects that are typically seen. We found that in all subjects the after-effect magnitudes were significantly reduced when movements were released by SAS, although this effect was not further modulated by the timing of SAS. Reduced after-effects reveal at least partial existence of learned preparatory control, and identify startle effects that could influence performance in tasks such as piloting, teleoperation, and sports.

  17. The 10th international congress of IRPA. The development of models for internal dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stather, J.W.

    2000-01-01

    In the past ten years a series of Publications have been issued by Committee 2 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) giving dose coefficients for intakes of radionuclides by inhalation and ingestion for both members of the public and workers. The biokinetic and dosimetric models used in the calculation of dose coefficients have been based largely on the model structure adopted in ICRP Publication 30 although new, physiologically-based models, involving recycling of radionuclides have been developed for both the alkaline earth and actinide elements. In addition, a new model for the human respiratory tract (HRTM) has been developed. A comprehensive series of dose coefficients have also been published by ICRP on CD-ROM. The series of reports giving dose coefficients for members of the public of various ages is to be completed with the issue of two further reports. The first will give dose coefficients for the embryo, fetus and newborn child following intakes of radionuclides by the mother either before or during pregnancy. Models for infants and children can generally be based on those for adults, with modifications to parameter values, but in the case of the embryo and fetus, fundamentally new models have had to be developed. Models are also being developed for calculating radiation doses to the offspring as a result of the intake of radionuclides in breast milk. The HRTM used for calculating inhalation dose coefficients was developed to allow the use of material specific data. To date, however, it has only been applied using default model parameters. A technical report is being developed that will give guidance on the practical application of the HRTM in circumstances which require the use of data on the deposition and solubility characteristics of specific inhaled materials. The present model used for assessing doses from ingestion of radionuclides was prepared in 1966. An improved model for the human alimentary tract is being developed

  18. Catchment variability and parameter estimation in multi-objective regionalisation of a rainfall-runoff model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deckers, Dave L.E.H.; Booij, Martijn J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.; Krol, Martinus S.

    2010-01-01

    This study attempts to examine if catchment variability favours regionalisation by principles of catchment similarity. Our work combines calibration of a simple conceptual model for multiple objectives and multi-regression analyses to establish a regional model between model sensitive parameters and

  19. Confidence Intervals for a Semiparametric Approach to Modeling Nonlinear Relations among Latent Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pek, Jolynn; Losardo, Diane; Bauer, Daniel J.

    2011-01-01

    Compared to parametric models, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches to modeling nonlinearity between latent variables have the advantage of recovering global relationships of unknown functional form. Bauer (2005) proposed an indirect application of finite mixtures of structural equation models where latent components are estimated in the…

  20. Variable selection for modelling effects of eutrophication on stream and river ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijboer, R.C.; Verdonschot, P.F.M.

    2004-01-01

    Models are needed for forecasting the effects of eutrophication on stream and river ecosystems. Most of the current models do not include differences in local stream characteristics and effects on the biota. To define the most important variables that should be used in a stream eutrophication model,

  1. Generalized Density-Corrected Model for Gas Diffusivity in Variably Saturated Soils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chamindu, Deepagoda; Møldrup, Per; Schjønning, Per

    2011-01-01

    models. The GDC model was further extended to describe two-region (bimodal) soils and could describe and predict Dp/Do well for both different soil aggregate size fractions and variably compacted volcanic ash soils. A possible use of the new GDC model is engineering applications such as the design...... of highly compacted landfill site caps....

  2. BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 5.0: Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2009-01-01

    This publication has been revised to reflect updates to version 4.0 of the BehavePlus software. It was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 4.0: Variables in July, 2008.The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a computer program based on mathematical models that describe wildland fire behavior and effects and the...

  3. A New Bi-Directional Projection Model Based on Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Variable

    OpenAIRE

    Huidong Wang; Shifan He; Xiaohong Pan

    2018-01-01

    To solve the multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problems with Pythagorean uncertain linguistic variable, an extended bi-directional projection method is proposed. First, we utilize the linguistic scale function to convert uncertain linguistic variable and provide a new projection model, subsequently. Then, to depict the bi-directional projection method, the formative vectors of alternatives and ideal alternatives are defined. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with projection model is co...

  4. Coupled variable selection for regression modeling of complex treatment patterns in a clinical cancer registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidtmann, I; Elsäßer, A; Weinmann, A; Binder, H

    2014-12-30

    For determining a manageable set of covariates potentially influential with respect to a time-to-event endpoint, Cox proportional hazards models can be combined with variable selection techniques, such as stepwise forward selection or backward elimination based on p-values, or regularized regression techniques such as component-wise boosting. Cox regression models have also been adapted for dealing with more complex event patterns, for example, for competing risks settings with separate, cause-specific hazard models for each event type, or for determining the prognostic effect pattern of a variable over different landmark times, with one conditional survival model for each landmark. Motivated by a clinical cancer registry application, where complex event patterns have to be dealt with and variable selection is needed at the same time, we propose a general approach for linking variable selection between several Cox models. Specifically, we combine score statistics for each covariate across models by Fisher's method as a basis for variable selection. This principle is implemented for a stepwise forward selection approach as well as for a regularized regression technique. In an application to data from hepatocellular carcinoma patients, the coupled stepwise approach is seen to facilitate joint interpretation of the different cause-specific Cox models. In conditional survival models at landmark times, which address updates of prediction as time progresses and both treatment and other potential explanatory variables may change, the coupled regularized regression approach identifies potentially important, stably selected covariates together with their effect time pattern, despite having only a small number of events. These results highlight the promise of the proposed approach for coupling variable selection between Cox models, which is particularly relevant for modeling for clinical cancer registries with their complex event patterns. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons

  5. gamboostLSS: An R Package for Model Building and Variable Selection in the GAMLSS Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Hofner, Benjamin; Mayr, Andreas; Schmid, Matthias

    2014-01-01

    Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape are a flexible class of regression models that allow to model multiple parameters of a distribution function, such as the mean and the standard deviation, simultaneously. With the R package gamboostLSS, we provide a boosting method to fit these models. Variable selection and model choice are naturally available within this regularized regression framework. To introduce and illustrate the R package gamboostLSS and its infrastructure, we...

  6. Global assemblages and structural models of International Relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corry, Olaf

    2014-01-01

    -category of assemblages – those constructed as malleable and governable which I call ‘governance-objects’ – is central to structure in international relations. The chapter begins with standard definitions of what structures are – patterns of interaction between elements – and briefly covers the range of models currently...... used to simplify different structures. Next the chapter points to the blindness of most structural theories of IR to the role of assemblages in general and governance-objects in particular. Thirdly, the idea that a polity is constituted precisely by the assemblage of a governance...

  7. Fast flexible modeling of RNA structure using internal coordinates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Samuel Coulbourn; Sherman, Michael A; Bruns, Christopher M; Eastman, Peter; Altman, Russ Biagio

    2011-01-01

    Modeling the structure and dynamics of large macromolecules remains a critical challenge. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are expensive because they model every atom independently, and are difficult to combine with experimentally derived knowledge. Assembly of molecules using fragments from libraries relies on the database of known structures and thus may not work for novel motifs. Coarse-grained modeling methods have yielded good results on large molecules but can suffer from difficulties in creating more detailed full atomic realizations. There is therefore a need for molecular modeling algorithms that remain chemically accurate and economical for large molecules, do not rely on fragment libraries, and can incorporate experimental information. RNABuilder works in the internal coordinate space of dihedral angles and thus has time requirements proportional to the number of moving parts rather than the number of atoms. It provides accurate physics-based response to applied forces, but also allows user-specified forces for incorporating experimental information. A particular strength of RNABuilder is that all Leontis-Westhof basepairs can be specified as primitives by the user to be satisfied during model construction. We apply RNABuilder to predict the structure of an RNA molecule with 160 bases from its secondary structure, as well as experimental information. Our model matches the known structure to 10.2 Angstroms RMSD and has low computational expense.

  8. Biologic data, models, and dosimetric methods for internal emitters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    The absorbed radiation dose from internal emitters has been and will remain a pivotal factor in assessing risk and therapeutic utility in selecting radiopharmaceuticals for diagnosis and treatment. Although direct measurements of absorbed dose and dose distributions in vivo have been and will continue to be made in limited situations, the measurement of the biodistribution and clearance of radiopharmaceuticals in human subjects and the use of this data is likely to remain the primary means to approach the calculation and estimation of absorbed dose from internal emitters over the next decade. Since several approximations are used in these schema to calculate dose, attention must be given to inspecting and improving the application of this dosimetric method as better techniques are developed to assay body activity and as more experience is gained in applying these schema to calculating absorbed dose. Discussion of the need for considering small scale dosimetry to calculate absorbed dose at the cellular level will be presented in this paper. Other topics include dose estimates for internal emitters, biologic data mathematical models and dosimetric methods employed. 44 refs

  9. Robust control of chaos in Chua's circuit based on internal model principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Keum W.; Singh, Sahjendra N.

    2007-01-01

    The paper treats the question of robust control of chaos in Chua's circuit based on the internal model principle. The Chua's diode has polynomial non-linearity and it is assumed that the parameters of the circuit are not known. A robust control law for the asymptotic regulation of the output (node voltage) along constant and sinusoidal reference trajectories is derived. For the derivation of the control law, the non-linear regulator equations are solved to obtain a manifold in the state space on which the output error is zero and an internal model of the k-fold exosystem (k = 3 here) is constructed. Then a feedback control law using the optimal control theory or pole placement technique for the stabilization of the augmented system including the Chua's circuit and the internal model is derived. In the closed-loop system, robust output node voltage trajectory tracking of sinusoidal and constant reference trajectories are accomplished and in the steady state, the remaining state variables converge to periodic and constant trajectories, respectively. Simulation results are presented which show that in the closed-loop system, asymptotic trajectory control, disturbance rejection and suppression of chaotic motion in spite of uncertainties in the system are accomplished

  10. Robust control of chaos in Chua's circuit based on internal model principle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Keum W. [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Nevada Las Vegas, 4505 Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, 89154-4026 (United States); Singh, Sahjendra N. [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Nevada Las Vegas, 4505 Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, 89154-4026 (United States)]. E-mail: sahaj@ee.unlv.edu

    2007-03-15

    The paper treats the question of robust control of chaos in Chua's circuit based on the internal model principle. The Chua's diode has polynomial non-linearity and it is assumed that the parameters of the circuit are not known. A robust control law for the asymptotic regulation of the output (node voltage) along constant and sinusoidal reference trajectories is derived. For the derivation of the control law, the non-linear regulator equations are solved to obtain a manifold in the state space on which the output error is zero and an internal model of the k-fold exosystem (k = 3 here) is constructed. Then a feedback control law using the optimal control theory or pole placement technique for the stabilization of the augmented system including the Chua's circuit and the internal model is derived. In the closed-loop system, robust output node voltage trajectory tracking of sinusoidal and constant reference trajectories are accomplished and in the steady state, the remaining state variables converge to periodic and constant trajectories, respectively. Simulation results are presented which show that in the closed-loop system, asymptotic trajectory control, disturbance rejection and suppression of chaotic motion in spite of uncertainties in the system are accomplished.

  11. Model Predictive Control of a Nonlinear System with Known Scheduling Variable

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) of a class of nonlinear systems is considered in this paper. We will use Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) model of the nonlinear system. By taking the advantage of having future values of the scheduling variable, we will simplify state prediction. Consequently...... the control problem of the nonlinear system is simplied into a quadratic programming. Wind turbine is chosen as the case study and we choose wind speed as the scheduling variable. Wind speed is measurable ahead of the turbine, therefore the scheduling variable is known for the entire prediction horizon....

  12. Combined Model of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Variability for Computational Network Design with Application to Synthetic Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni, Tina; Tidor, Bruce

    2013-01-01

    Biological systems are inherently variable, with their dynamics influenced by intrinsic and extrinsic sources. These systems are often only partially characterized, with large uncertainties about specific sources of extrinsic variability and biochemical properties. Moreover, it is not yet well understood how different sources of variability combine and affect biological systems in concert. To successfully design biomedical therapies or synthetic circuits with robust performance, it is crucial to account for uncertainty and effects of variability. Here we introduce an efficient modeling and simulation framework to study systems that are simultaneously subject to multiple sources of variability, and apply it to make design decisions on small genetic networks that play a role of basic design elements of synthetic circuits. Specifically, the framework was used to explore the effect of transcriptional and post-transcriptional autoregulation on fluctuations in protein expression in simple genetic networks. We found that autoregulation could either suppress or increase the output variability, depending on specific noise sources and network parameters. We showed that transcriptional autoregulation was more successful than post-transcriptional in suppressing variability across a wide range of intrinsic and extrinsic magnitudes and sources. We derived the following design principles to guide the design of circuits that best suppress variability: (i) high protein cooperativity and low miRNA cooperativity, (ii) imperfect complementarity between miRNA and mRNA was preferred to perfect complementarity, and (iii) correlated expression of mRNA and miRNA – for example, on the same transcript – was best for suppression of protein variability. Results further showed that correlations in kinetic parameters between cells affected the ability to suppress variability, and that variability in transient states did not necessarily follow the same principles as variability in the steady

  13. Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

  14. Developing Baltic cod recruitment models II : Incorporation of environmental variability and species interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köster, Fritz; Hinrichsen, H.H.; St. John, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We investigate whether a process-oriented approach based on the results of field, laboratory, and modelling studies can be used to develop a stock-environment-recruitment model for Central Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on exploratory statistical analysis, significant variables influencing...... cod in these areas, suggesting that key biotic and abiotic processes can be successfully incorporated into recruitment models....... survival of early life stages and varying systematically among spawning sites were incorporated into stock-recruitment models, first for major cod spawning sites and then combined for the entire Central Baltic. Variables identified included potential egg production by the spawning stock, abiotic conditions...

  15. Modeling temporal and spatial variability of traffic-related air pollution: Hourly land use regression models for black carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dons, Evi; Van Poppel, Martine; Kochan, Bruno; Wets, Geert; Int Panis, Luc

    2013-08-01

    Land use regression (LUR) modeling is a statistical technique used to determine exposure to air pollutants in epidemiological studies. Time-activity diaries can be combined with LUR models, enabling detailed exposure estimation and limiting exposure misclassification, both in shorter and longer time lags. In this study, the traffic related air pollutant black carbon was measured with μ-aethalometers on a 5-min time base at 63 locations in Flanders, Belgium. The measurements show that hourly concentrations vary between different locations, but also over the day. Furthermore the diurnal pattern is different for street and background locations. This suggests that annual LUR models are not sufficient to capture all the variation. Hourly LUR models for black carbon are developed using different strategies: by means of dummy variables, with dynamic dependent variables and/or with dynamic and static independent variables. The LUR model with 48 dummies (weekday hours and weekend hours) performs not as good as the annual model (explained variance of 0.44 compared to 0.77 in the annual model). The dataset with hourly concentrations of black carbon can be used to recalibrate the annual model, resulting in many of the original explaining variables losing their statistical significance, and certain variables having the wrong direction of effect. Building new independent hourly models, with static or dynamic covariates, is proposed as the best solution to solve these issues. R2 values for hourly LUR models are mostly smaller than the R2 of the annual model, ranging from 0.07 to 0.8. Between 6 a.m. and 10 p.m. on weekdays the R2 approximates the annual model R2. Even though models of consecutive hours are developed independently, similar variables turn out to be significant. Using dynamic covariates instead of static covariates, i.e. hourly traffic intensities and hourly population densities, did not significantly improve the models' performance.

  16. First Year Observations of Antarctic Circumpolar Current Variability and Internal Wave Activity from the DIMES Mooring Array

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brearley, J. A.; Sheen, K. L.; Naveira-Garabato, A. C.

    2012-04-01

    A key component of DIMES (Diapycnal and Isopycnal Mixing Experiment in the Southern Ocean) is the deployment of a two-year cross-shaped mooring array in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to the east of Drake Passage close to 57°W. Motivation for the cluster arises from the need to understand how eddies dissipate in the Southern Ocean, and specifically how much energy is extracted from the mesoscale by breaking internal waves, which in turn leads to turbulent mixing. The location of the mooring cluster was chosen to fulfil these objectives, being situated in a region of pronounced finestructure with high eddy kinetic energy and rough topography. The array, comprising 34 current meters and Microcats and a downward-looking ADCP, was first deployed in December 2009 and serviced in December 2010. Time series of current meter results from the most heavily-instrumented 'C' mooring indicate that a strong (up to 80 cms-1) surface-intensified north-eastward directed ACC occupies the region for most of the year, with over 85% of the variability in current speed being accounted for by equivalent barotropic fluctuations. A strong mean poleward heat flux is observed at the site, which compares favourably in magnitude with literature results from other ACC locations. Interestingly, four episodes of mid-depth (~2000 m) current speed maxima, each of a few days duration, were found during the 360-day time series, a situation also observed by the lowered ADCP during mooring servicing in December 2010. Early results indicate that these episodes, which coincide with time minima in stratification close to 2000 m, could profoundly influence the nature of eddy-internal wave interactions at these times. Quantification of the energy budget at the mooring cluster has been a key priority. When compared with previous moorings located in Drake Passage (Bryden, 1977), a near threefold-increase in mean eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is observed despite a small reduction in the mean kinetic energy

  17. Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable

  18. Dialogues on cancer survivorship: a new model of international cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Kevin; Mattioli, Vittorio

    2013-06-01

    The authors describe the rationale and background of the present supplement to Cancer intended to stimulate a dialogue among researchers from Europe and North America regarding important issues faced by cancer survivors. Through jointly written articles addressing various aspects of cancer survivorship, each manuscript reports on the similarities, disparities, and problems viewed from the point of view of each author's respective continent. The supplement is meant to create a springboard for increased collaboration and aid in the development of a shared care model to improve the quality of cancer care, both during and after the completion of primary treatment. We hope that this effort may represent a new model of international cooperation, which is fruitful not only for the field of scientific research but also for identifying and sharing new approaches to the care and management of cancer survivorship issues, ultimately bringing improvements to quality of life of the growing population of cancer survivors. Copyright © 2013 American Cancer Society.

  19. Internal models and prediction of visual gravitational motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zago, Myrka; McIntyre, Joseph; Senot, Patrice; Lacquaniti, Francesco

    2008-06-01

    Baurès et al. [Baurès, R., Benguigui, N., Amorim, M.-A., & Siegler, I. A. (2007). Intercepting free falling objects: Better use Occam's razor than internalize Newton's law. Vision Research, 47, 2982-2991] rejected the hypothesis that free-falling objects are intercepted using a predictive model of gravity. They argued instead for "a continuous guide for action timing" based on visual information updated till target capture. Here we show that their arguments are flawed, because they fail to consider the impact of sensori-motor delays on interception behaviour and the need for neural compensation of such delays. When intercepting a free-falling object, the delays can be overcome by a predictive model of the effects of gravity on target motion.

  20. The selection of a mode of urban transportation: Integrating psychological variables to discrete choice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordoba Maquilon, Jorge E; Gonzalez Calderon, Carlos A; Posada Henao, John J

    2011-01-01

    A study using revealed preference surveys and psychological tests was conducted. Key psychological variables of behavior involved in the choice of transportation mode in a population sample of the Metropolitan Area of the Valle de Aburra were detected. The experiment used the random utility theory for discrete choice models and reasoned action in order to assess beliefs. This was used as a tool for analysis of the psychological variables using the sixteen personality factor questionnaire (16PF test). In addition to the revealed preference surveys, two other surveys were carried out: one with socio-economic characteristics and the other with latent indicators. This methodology allows for an integration of discrete choice models and latent variables. The integration makes the model operational and quantifies the unobservable psychological variables. The most relevant result obtained was that anxiety affects the choice of urban transportation mode and shows that physiological alterations, as well as problems in perception and beliefs, can affect the decision-making process.