WorldWideScience

Sample records for model inter-comparison project

  1. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Bo WU; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-01-01

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are ...

  2. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-10-10

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

  3. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-10-01

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the "Grand Challenges" proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), "historical" simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

  4. Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Melton

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4. Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2 forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two.

    Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1. Second, all

  5. iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model inter-comparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Kwiatkowski

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC models span a wide range of complexities from highly simplified, nutrient-restoring schemes, through nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD models that crudely represent the marine biota, through to models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFT based on their biogeochemical role (Dynamic Green Ocean Models; DGOM and ecosystem models which group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth System Models (ESMs, but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here, we present an inter-comparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth System Model (UKESM1. The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the Nucleus for the European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO ocean general circulation model (GCM, and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform or underperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models that are easier to tune are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields, and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex

  6. Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Wania

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4 emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013. Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

  7. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Renssen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes during the Last Interglacial period. This period is of special interest because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in the light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of Last Interglacial temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the Last Interglacial period. By comparing the different simulations we aim at investigating the robustness of the simulated surface air temperature evolution. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–122 ka BP with temperatures 0.4 to 6.8 K above pre-industrial values. This temperature evolution is in line with the changes in June insolation and greenhouse-gas concentrations. For the evolution of July temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere, the picture emerging from the inter-comparison is less clear. However, it does show that including greenhouse-gas concentration changes is critical. The simulations that include this forcing show an early, 128 ka BP July temperature anomaly maximum of 0.5 to 2.6 K. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In these latitudes maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −2.5 to 2 K and 0 to 2 K are simulated for the period after 118 ka BP. The inter-comparison is inconclusive on the evolution of January temperatures in the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Further investigation of regional anomalous patterns and inter-model differences indicate that in specific regions, feedbacks within the climate system are important for the

  8. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bakker

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG. This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different palaeoclimatic records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of LIG temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the LIG period. By comparing the different simulations, we aim at investigating the common signal in the LIG temperature evolution, investigating the main driving forces behind it and at listing the climate feedbacks which cause the most apparent inter-model differences. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–125 ka BP with temperatures 0.3 to 5.3 K above present day. A Southern Hemisphere July temperature maximum, −1.3 to 2.5 K at around 128 ka BP, is only found when changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations are included. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For these regions maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −1 to 1.2 K and −0.8 to 2.1 K are simulated for the period after 121 ka BP. In both hemispheres these temperature maxima are in line with the maximum in local summer insolation. In a number of specific regions, a common temperature evolution is not found amongst the models. We show that this is related to feedbacks within the climate system which largely determine the simulated LIG temperature evolution in these regions. Firstly, in the Arctic region, changes in the summer sea-ice cover control the evolution of LIG winter

  9. Model inter-comparison on transport and chemistry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergamaschi, P. [European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (Italy); Meirink, J.F. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute KNMI, De Bilt (Netherlands); Mueller, J.F. [Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels (Belgium); Koerner, S.; Heimann, M. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemie, Jena (Germany); Bousquet, P.; Ramonet, M. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environment LSCE, Gif sur Yvette (France); Dlugokencky, E.J. [NOAA Earth Science Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Kaminski, U. [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeissenberg (Germany); Vecchi, R.; Marcazzan, G. [Istituto di Fisica Generale Applicata, Universita' degli Studi di Milano, Milan (Italy); Meinhardt, F. [Umweltbundesamt, Messstelle Schauinsland, Kirchzarten (Germany); Sartorius, H. [Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz, Freiburg (Germany); Zahorowski, W. [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Menai (Australia)

    2006-07-01

    A comprehensive inter-comparison of 5 atmospheric chemistry transport models (TM5, TM4, TM3, IMAGES, and LMDZ) has been performed. The main objective was to analyze differences in model transport, in particular vertical mixing (boundary layer and convective transport), synoptic variations, and large scale global circulation (including inter-hemispheric exchange and stratospheric tropospheric exchange (STE)). For this purpose simulations of various tracers with very different atmospheric lifetimes {tau} have been carried out: 222Rn ({tau} = 3.8 days), SF6 ({tau} {approx}3000 years), and CH4 ({tau} = {approx}9 years), using prescribed boundary conditions for all models. Furthermore, OH fields from various model simulations with full chemistry have been compared.

  10. Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (ACCMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. S. Stevenson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Ozone (O3 from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs. We calculate a~value for the pre-industrial (1750 to present-day (2010 tropospheric ozone RF of 0.40 W m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (±1 standard deviation in RFs of ±17%. Three different radiation schemes were used – we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields of ±10%. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of ±3%. Given additional (unquantified uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of ±30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (47%, nitrogen oxides (29%, carbon monoxide (15% and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9%; earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 0.042 W m−2 DU−1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (W m−2; relative to 1850 – add 0.04 W m−2 to make relative to 1750 for the Representative Concentration Pathways in 2030 (2100 of: RCP2.6: 0.31 (0.16; RCP4.5: 0.38 (0.26; RCP6.0: 0.33 (0.24; and RCP8.5: 0.42 (0.56. Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in

  11. Inter-comparison of experimental catchment data and hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Shailesh Kumar; Ibbitt, Richard; Srinivasan, M. S.; Shankar, Ude

    2017-07-01

    Hydrological models account for the storage, flow of water and water balance in a catchment, including exchanges of water and energy with the ground, atmosphere and oceans. Because of the need to simplify hydrological models, parameters are often included to help with modelling hydrological processes. Generally the parameters of lumped, semi or distributed hydrological models depend on the values estimated at a gauged location, generally at outlet of the catchment (mostly using discharge). In this approach it is hard to judge how well a model represents internal catchment processes of the hydrological cycle as well as also ignoring the spatial heterogeneity of the catchment. The purpose of the paper is to assess, and potentially improve, the ability of a physically-based semi-distributed hydrological model, TopNet, using a spatially and temporally detailed set of field measurements of catchment responses to diverse weather conditions. The TopNet rainfall-runoff model was applied to the Waipara catchment located in the South Island of New Zealand. Observations from field experiments were compared with the simulation results of uncalibrated TopNet model. The total amount of simulated runoff showed reasonable agreement with observations. However, the model overestimated baseflow and underestimated surface flow. The results show that soil moisture variation within the catchment is well represented by the model. However, comparison of the observed water balance with model results show that there is a deficiency in the calculation of evapotranspiration.

  12. Firn Model Inter-Comparison Experiment (FirnMICE) (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundin, J.; Arthern, R. J.; Buizert, C.; Cummings, E.; Essery, R.; Ligtenberg, S.; Orsi, A. J.; Simonsen, S. B.; Brook, E.; Leahy, W.; Stevens, C.; Harris, P.; Waddington, E. D.

    2013-12-01

    Firn evolution plays important roles in glaciology; however, the physical formulation of the compaction law, including sensitivities to temperature and accumulation rate, is an active research topic. We forced 10 firn-densification models in 6 different experiments by altering temperature and accumulation-rate boundary conditions and compared the steady-state and transient behavior of the models. We find that the models produce different results in both steady-state and transient modes for a suite of metrics, including depth-density and depth-age profiles. We use this study to quantitatively characterize the differences between firn models; to provide a benchmark of results for future models; to provide a basis to quantify model uncertainties; and to guide future directions of firn-densification modeling.

  13. An inter-comparison exercise on the capabilities of CFD models to predict the short and long term distribution and mixing of hydrogen in a garage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venetsanos, A.G.; Papanikolaou, E.; Delichatsios, M.; Garcia, J.; Hansen, O.R.; Heitsch, M.; Huser, A.; Jahn, W.; Jordan, T.; Lacome, J.-M.; Ledin, H.S.; Makarov, D.; Middha, P.; Studer, E.; Tchouvelev, A.V.; Teodorczyk, A.; Verbecke, F.; Voort, M.M. van der

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of the CFD inter-comparison exercise SBEP-V3, performed within the activity InsHyde, internal project of the HySafe network of excellence, in the framework of evaluating the capability of various CFD tools and modelling approaches in predicting the short and long term

  14. Understanding the Atmospheric Response to Ocean Heat Transport: a Model Inter-Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, B.

    2012-12-01

    The oceans' contribution to poleward heat transport (1 to 2 PW) is dwarfed by the atmosphere, and yet ocean heat transport (OHT) exerts a powerful climatic influence by exciting various atmospheric feedbacks. OHT drives polar-amplified greenhouse warming through a dynamical redistribution of tropospheric water vapor, and helps set the strength and position of the ITCZ. These complex responses explicitly couple tropical and extra-tropical processes, and depend on interactions between large-scale dynamics and moist physics. Considerable insights have been drawn from recent idealized experiments with aquaplanet GCMs coupled to slab oceans with prescribed OHT convergence (q-flux). However sensitivity to uncertain model parameterizations pose a barrier to deeper understanding. I will introduce a new multi-institution collaboration called the Q-flux / Aquaplanet Model Inter-comparison Project (QAquMIP), designed to test the robustness of the climatic impact of OHT and its relationship to traditional climate sensitivity. A standardized set of GCM experiments, repeated across a broad range of models, are forced by a few simple analytical q-fluxes. Experimental controls include the meridional scale of poleward OHT, strength of inter-hemispheric OHT, and zonally asymmetric equatorial heating. I will compare robust spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation changes associated with OHT forcing to those driven by CO2, and discuss the underlying spatial pattern of atmospheric feedbacks. A recurring theme is the key role of moist convection in communicating sea surface heating signals throughout the atmosphere, with consequences for clouds, water vapor, radiation, and hydrology. QAquMIP will better constrain the possible role of the oceans in past warm climates, provide a standard framework for testing new parameterizations, and advance our fundamental understanding of the moist processes contributing to present-day climate sensitivity.

  15. Inter-comparison of state-of-the-art MSS and geoid models in the Arctic Ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skourup, Henriette; Farrell, Sinead; Hendricks, Stefan

    State-of-the-art Arctic Ocean mean sea surface (MSS) and geoid models are used to support sea ice freeboard estimation from satellite altimeters, and for oceanographic studies. However, errors in a given model in the high frequency domain, e.g. due to unresolved gravity features, can result...... in errors in the estimated freeboard heights, especially in areas with a sparse lead distribution in consolidated ice conditions. Additionally these errors can impact ocean geostrophic current estimates and remaining biases in the models may impact longer-term, multi-sensor oceanographic time-series of sea...... level change.This study, part of the ESA CryoVal Sea Ice project, focuses on an inter-comparison of various state-of-the-art Arctic MSS models (UCL13/DTU13/ICEn) and commonly-used geoid models (EGM08). We show improved definition of gravity features, such as the Gakkel ridge, in the latest MSS models...

  16. Inter-comparison of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Y. J.; Costa, A.; Cerminara, M.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Herzog, M.; Van Eaton, A. R.; Denby, L. C.

    2016-10-01

    We performed an inter-comparison study of three-dimensional models of volcanic plumes. A set of common volcanological input parameters and meteorological conditions were provided for two kinds of eruptions, representing a weak and a strong eruption column. From the different models, we compared the maximum plume height, neutral buoyancy level (where plume density equals that of the atmosphere), and level of maximum radial spreading of the umbrella cloud. We also compared the vertical profiles of eruption column properties, integrated across cross-sections of the plume (integral variables). Although the models use different numerical procedures and treatments of subgrid turbulence and particle dynamics, the inter-comparison shows qualitatively consistent results. In the weak plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 106 kg s- 1), the vertical profiles of plume properties (e.g., vertical velocity, temperature) are similar among models, especially in the buoyant plume region. Variability among the simulated maximum heights is 20%, whereas neutral buoyancy level and level of maximum radial spreading vary by 10%. Time-averaging of the three-dimensional (3D) flow fields indicates an effective entrainment coefficient around 0.1 in the buoyant plume region, with much lower values in the jet region, which is consistent with findings of small-scale laboratory experiments. On the other hand, the strong plume case (mass eruption rate 1.5 × 109 kg s- 1) shows greater variability in the vertical plume profiles predicted by the different models. Our analysis suggests that the unstable flow dynamics in the strong plume enhances differences in the formulation and numerical solution of the models. This is especially evident in the overshooting top of the plume, which extends a significant portion ( 1/8) of the maximum plume height. Nonetheless, overall variability in the spreading level and neutral buoyancy level is 20%, whereas that of maximum height is 10%. This inter-comparison

  17. A model inter-comparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian tropical savannas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Whitley

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Savanna ecosystems are one of the most dominant and complex terrestrial biomes that derives from a distinct vegetative surface comprised of co-dominant tree and grass populations. While these two vegetation types co-exist functionally, demographically they are not static, but are dynamically changing in response to environmental forces such as annual fire events and rainfall variability. Modelling savanna environments with the current generation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs has presented many problems, particularly describing fire frequency and intensity, phenology, leaf biochemistry of C3 and C4 photosynthesis vegetation, and root water uptake. In order to better understand why TBMs perform so poorly in savannas, we conducted a model inter-comparison of 6 TBMs and assessed their performance at simulating latent energy (LE and gross primary productivity (GPP for five savanna sites along a rainfall gradient in northern Australia. Performance in predicting LE and GPP was measured using an empirical benchmarking system, which ranks models by their ability to utilise meteorological driving information to predict the fluxes. On average, the TBMs performed as well as a multi-linear regression of the fluxes against solar radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit, but were outperformed by a more complicated nonlinear response model that also included the leaf area index (LAI. This identified that the TBMs are not fully utilising their input information effectively in determining savanna LE and GPP, and highlights that savanna dynamics cannot be calibrated into models and that there are problems in underlying model processes. We identified key weaknesses in a model's ability to simulate savanna fluxes and their seasonal variation, related to the representation of vegetation by the models and root water uptake. We underline these weaknesses in terms of three critical areas for development. First, prescribed tree-rooting depths must be

  18. A model inter-comparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian tropical savannas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitley, Rhys; Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Abramowitz, Gab; De Kauwe, Martin G.; Duursma, Remko; Evans, Bradley; Haverd, Vanessa; Li, Longhui; Ryu, Youngryel; Smith, Benjamin; Wang, Ying-Ping; Williams, Mathew; Yu, Qiang

    2016-06-01

    The savanna ecosystem is one of the most dominant and complex terrestrial biomes, deriving from a distinct vegetative surface comprised of co-dominant tree and grass populations. While these two vegetation types co-exist functionally, demographically they are not static but are dynamically changing in response to environmental forces such as annual fire events and rainfall variability. Modelling savanna environments with the current generation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) has presented many problems, particularly describing fire frequency and intensity, phenology, leaf biochemistry of C3 and C4 photosynthesis vegetation, and root-water uptake. In order to better understand why TBMs perform so poorly in savannas, we conducted a model inter-comparison of six TBMs and assessed their performance at simulating latent energy (LE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) for five savanna sites along a rainfall gradient in northern Australia. Performance in predicting LE and GPP was measured using an empirical benchmarking system, which ranks models by their ability to utilise meteorological driving information to predict the fluxes. On average, the TBMs performed as well as a multi-linear regression of the fluxes against solar radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit but were outperformed by a more complicated nonlinear response model that also included the leaf area index (LAI). This identified that the TBMs are not fully utilising their input information effectively in determining savanna LE and GPP and highlights that savanna dynamics cannot be calibrated into models and that there are problems in underlying model processes. We identified key weaknesses in a model's ability to simulate savanna fluxes and their seasonal variation, related to the representation of vegetation by the models and root-water uptake. We underline these weaknesses in terms of three critical areas for development. First, prescribed tree-rooting depths must be deep enough

  19. Applicability of the Shallow Ice Approximation inferred from model inter-comparison using various glacier geometries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schäfer

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an inter-comparison of three different models applied to various glacier geometries. The three models are built on different approximations of the Stokes equations, from the well known Shallow Ice Approximation (SIA to the full-Stokes (FS solution with an intermediate higher-order (HO model which incorporates longitudinal stresses. The studied glaciers are synthetic geometries, but two of them are constructed so as to mimic a valley glacier and a volcano glacier. For each class of glacier, the bedrock slope and/or the aspect ratio are varied. First, the models are compared in a diagnostic way for a fixed and given geometry. Here the SIA surface velocity can overestimate the FS velocity by a factor of 5 to a factor of 10. Then, the free surface is allowed to evolve and the time-dependent evolution of the glacier is studied. As a result, the difference between the models decreases, but can still be as large as a factor of 1.5 to 2. This decrease can be explained by a negative feedback for the SIA which overestimates velocities.

  20. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Sunyer, Maria A.; Lawrence, Deborah; Madsen, Henrik; Willems, Patrick; Bürger, Gerd; Kriaučiūnienė, Jurate; Loukas, Athanasios; Martinkova, Marta; Osuch, Marzena; Vasiliades, Lampros; von Christierson, Birgitte; Vormoor, Klaus; Yücel, Ismail

    2016-10-01

    The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171 km2 in size and cover different climate zones. 15 regional climate model outputs and 8 different statistical downscaling methods, which are broadly categorized as change factor and bias correction based methods, were used for the comparative analyses. Different hydrological models were implemented in different catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall-dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where the flooding is mainly caused by spring/summer snowmelt, the downscaling methods project a decrease in the extreme flows in three of the four catchments considered. A major portion of the variability in the projected changes in the extreme flow indices is attributable to the variability of the climate model ensemble, although the statistical downscaling methods contribute 35-60% of the total variance.

  1. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Lawrence, Deborah;

    2016-01-01

    flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall-dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where...... the flooding is mainly caused by spring/summer snowmelt, the downscaling methods project a decrease in the extreme flows in three of the four catchments considered. A major portion of the variability in the projected changes in the extreme flow indices is attributable to the variability of the climate model......The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171km2 in size...

  2. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Hundecha, Y.; Lawrence, D.;

    2015-01-01

    Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models...... be drawn regarding the differences between CFs and BC methods. The performance of the BC methods during the control period also depends on the catchment, but in most cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM outputs. Analysis of the variance in the ensemble of RCMs and SDMs indicates...

  3. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunyer, M. A.; Hundecha, Y.; Lawrence, D.; Madsen, H.; Willems, P.; Martinkova, M.; Vormoor, K.; Bürger, G.; Hanel, M.; Kriaučiūnienė, J.; Loukas, A.; Osuch, M.; Yücel, I.

    2015-04-01

    Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models, they cannot be directly used in hydrological models. Hence, statistical downscaling is necessary to address climate change impacts at the catchment scale. This study compares eight statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) often used in climate change impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors (CFs), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in most catchments in both winter and summer. For individual catchments, the downscaled time series tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. Differences between the SDMs vary between the catchments and depend on the season analysed. Similarly, general conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the differences between CFs and BC methods. The performance of the BC methods during the control period also depends on the catchment, but in most cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM outputs. Analysis of the variance in the ensemble of RCMs and SDMs indicates that at least 30% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided for the selection of the most suitable SDMs to include in the analysis.

  4. Inter-Comparison and Validation of Geant4 Photon Interaction Models

    CERN Document Server

    Augelli, M; Pia, M G; Queiroz, P P; Quintieri, L; Souza-Santos, D; Sudhakar, M; Saracco, P; Weidenspointner, G; Zoglauer, A

    2009-01-01

    A R&D project, named Nano5, has been recently launched to study an architectural design in view of addressing new experimental issues related to particle transport in high energy physics and other related physics disciplines with Geant4. In this frame, the first step has involved the redesign of the photon interaction models currently available in Geant4; this task has motivated a thorough investigation of the physics and computational features of these models, whose first results are presented here.

  5. Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: a model inter-comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobell, D; Bonfils, C; Duffy, P

    2006-11-09

    Several impacts of climate change may depend more on changes in mean daily minimum (T{sub min}) or maximum (T{sub max}) temperatures than daily averages. To evaluate uncertainties in these variables, we compared projections of T{sub min} and T{sub max} changes by 2046-2065 for 12 climate models under an A2 emission scenario. Average modeled changes in T{sub max} were slightly lower in most locations than T{sub min}, consistent with historical trends exhibiting a reduction in diurnal temperature ranges. However, while average changes in T{sub min} and T{sub max} were similar, the inter-model variability of T{sub min} and T{sub max} projections exhibited substantial differences. For example, inter-model standard deviations of June-August T{sub max} changes were more than 50% greater than for T{sub min} throughout much of North America, Europe, and Asia. Model differences in cloud changes, which exert relatively greater influence on T{sub max} during summer and T{sub min} during winter, were identified as the main source of uncertainty disparities. These results highlight the importance of considering separately projections for T{sub max} and T{sub min} when assessing climate change impacts, even in cases where average projected changes are similar. In addition, impacts that are most sensitive to summertime T{sub min} or wintertime T{sub max} may be more predictable than suggested by analyses using only projections of daily average temperatures.

  6. The Firn Model Inter-Comparison Experiment: Visualizing Firn Densification Models to Characterize Uncertainty in the Physics of Firn Densification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leahy, W. P.; Arthern, R. J.; Buizert, C.; Cummings, E.; Essery, R.; Ligtenberg, S.; Orsi, A. J.; Simonsen, S. B.; Brook, E.; Stevens, C.; Harris, P. D.; Lundin, J.; Waddington, E. D.

    2013-12-01

    Modeling firn densification accurately is necessary for a number of problems in glaciology. Knowledge of the age and depth of firn when it turns to ice is needed to accurately interpret climate records from ice cores. Determining ice-sheet mass balance from satellite altimetry requires knowing the depth-integrated porosity of firn. Multiple research groups have developed models of firn evolution, incorporating different physical processes. The Firn Model Inter-Comparison Experiment (FirnMICE) compares the steady-state and transient behavior of 10 firn-densification models. Each model was spun up to a steady-state, perturbed with a step change in accumulation or temperature, and run to a new steady state. Model output included: depth, density, age, depth and age of bubble close off, and depth-integrated porosity. FirnMICE results are available through an interactive online tool, allowing users to browse the suite of figures for each experiment. The FirnMICE website also includes animations and 3D visualizations of results.

  7. An inter-comparison of PM10 source apportionment using PCA and PMF receptor models in three European sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesari, Daniela; Amato, F; Pandolfi, M; Alastuey, A; Querol, X; Contini, D

    2016-08-01

    Source apportionment of aerosol is an important approach to investigate aerosol formation and transformation processes as well as to assess appropriate mitigation strategies and to investigate causes of non-compliance with air quality standards (Directive 2008/50/CE). Receptor models (RMs) based on chemical composition of aerosol measured at specific sites are a useful, and widely used, tool to perform source apportionment. However, an analysis of available studies in the scientific literature reveals heterogeneities in the approaches used, in terms of "working variables" such as the number of samples in the dataset and the number of chemical species used as well as in the modeling tools used. In this work, an inter-comparison of PM10 source apportionment results obtained at three European measurement sites is presented, using two receptor models: principal component analysis coupled with multi-linear regression analysis (PCA-MLRA) and positive matrix factorization (PMF). The inter-comparison focuses on source identification, quantification of source contribution to PM10, robustness of the results, and how these are influenced by the number of chemical species available in the datasets. Results show very similar component/factor profiles identified by PCA and PMF, with some discrepancies in the number of factors. The PMF model appears to be more suitable to separate secondary sulfate and secondary nitrate with respect to PCA at least in the datasets analyzed. Further, some difficulties have been observed with PCA in separating industrial and heavy oil combustion contributions. Commonly at all sites, the crustal contributions found with PCA were larger than those found with PMF, and the secondary inorganic aerosol contributions found by PCA were lower than those found by PMF. Site-dependent differences were also observed for traffic and marine contributions. The inter-comparison of source apportionment performed on complete datasets (using the full range of

  8. Meteorological input for atmospheric dispersion models: an inter-comparison between new generation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busillo, C.; Calastrini, F.; Gualtieri, G. [Lab. for Meteorol. and Environ. Modell. (LaMMA/CNR-IBIMET), Florence (Italy); Carpentieri, M.; Corti, A. [Dept. of Energetics, Univ. of Florence (Italy); Canepa, E. [INFM, Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Genoa (Italy)

    2004-07-01

    The behaviour of atmospheric dispersion models is strongly influenced by meteorological input, especially as far as new generation models are concerned. More sophisticated meteorological pre-processors require more extended and more reliable data. This is true in particular when short-term simulations are performed, while in long-term modelling detailed data are less important. In Europe no meteorological standards exist about data, therefore testing and evaluating the results of new generation dispersion models is particularly important in order to obtain information on reliability of model predictions. (orig.)

  9. Overview of Dust Model Inter-comparison (DMIP) in East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uno, I.

    2004-12-01

    Dust transport modeling plays an important role in understanding the recent increase of Asian Dust episodes and its impact to the regional climate system. Several dust models have been developed in several research institutes and government agencies independently since 1990s. Their numerical results either look very similar or different. Those disagreements are caused by difference in dust modules (concepts and basic mechanisms) and atmospheric models (meteorological and transport models). Therefore common understanding of performance and uncertainty of dust erosion and transport models in the Asian region becomes very important. To have a better understanding of dust model application, we proposed the dust model intercomparison under the international cooperation networks as a part of activity of ADEC (Aeolian Dust Experiment on Climate Impact) project research. Current participants are Kyusyu Univ. (Japan), Meteorological Research Institute (Japan), Hong-Kong City Univ. (China), Korean Meteorological Agency METRI (Korea), US Naval Research Laboratory (USA), Chinese Meteorological Agency (China), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (China), Insular Coastal Dynamics (Malta) and Meteorological Service of Canada (Canada). As a case study episode, we set two huge dust storms occurred in March and April 2002. Results from the dust transport model from all the participants are compiled on the same methods and examined the model characteristics against the ground and airborne measurement data. We will also examine the dust model results from the horizontal distribution at specified levels, vertical profiles, concentration at special check point and emission flux at source region, and show the important parameters for dust modeling. In this paper, we will introduce the general overview of this DMIP activity and several important conclusions from this activity.

  10. Longitudinal Inter-Comparison of Modeled and Measured West Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater Runoff Losses (2004-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, S.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Tedesco, M.; Mote, T. L.; Koenig, L.; Smith, L. C.; Hagedorn, B.; Overeem, I.; Sletten, R. S.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Hasholt, B.; Hall, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    Increased surface meltwater runoff, that exits the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) margin via supra-, en-, and sub-glacial drainage networks into fjords, pro-glacial lakes and rivers, accounts for half or more of total mass loss. Despite its importance, modeled meltwater runoff fluxes are poorly constrained, primarily due to a lack of direct in situ observations. Here, we present the first ever longitudinal (north-south) inter-comparison of a multi-year dataset (2004-2014) of discharge for four drainage basins - Watson, Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua, Naujat Kuat, and North Rivers - along West Greenland. These in situ hydrologic measurements are compared with modeled runoff output from Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model, and the performance of the model is examined. An analysis of the relationship between modeled and actual ice sheet runoff patterns is assessed, and provides insight into the model's ability to capture inter-annual and intra-annual variability, spatiotemporal patterns, and extreme melt events. This study's findings will inform future development and parameterization of ice sheet surface mass balance models.

  11. Assessing doses to terrestrial wildlife at a radioactive waste disposal site: Inter-comparison of modelling approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansen, M.P., E-mail: mathew.johansen@ansto.gov.au [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Locked Bag 2001, Kirrawee DC, NSW, 2232 (Australia); Barnett, C.L., E-mail: clb@ceh.ac.uk [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster (United Kingdom); Beresford, N.A., E-mail: nab@ceh.ac.uk [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster (United Kingdom); Brown, J.E., E-mail: justin.brown@nrpa.no [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Oesteraas (Norway); Cerne, M., E-mail: marko.cerne@ijs.si [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Howard, B.J., E-mail: bjho@ceh.ac.uk [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster (United Kingdom); Kamboj, S., E-mail: skamboj@anl.gov [Argonne National Laboratory, IL (United States); Keum, D.-K., E-mail: dkkeum@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Smodis, B. [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Twining, J.R., E-mail: jrt@ansto.gov.au [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Locked Bag 2001, Kirrawee DC, NSW, 2232 (Australia); Vandenhove, H., E-mail: hvandenh@sckcen.be [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Mol (Belgium); Vives i Batlle, J., E-mail: jvbatll@sckcen.be [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Mol (Belgium); Wood, M.D., E-mail: m.d.wood@salford.ac.uk [University of Salford, Manchester (United Kingdom); Yu, C., E-mail: cyu@anl.gov [Argonne National Laboratory, IL (United States)

    2012-06-15

    Radiological doses to terrestrial wildlife were examined in this model inter-comparison study that emphasised factors causing variability in dose estimation. The study participants used varying modelling approaches and information sources to estimate dose rates and tissue concentrations for a range of biota types exposed to soil contamination at a shallow radionuclide waste burial site in Australia. Results indicated that the dominant factor causing variation in dose rate estimates (up to three orders of magnitude on mean total dose rates) was the soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides that included variation in transfer parameter values as well as transfer calculation methods. Additional variation was associated with other modelling factors including: how participants conceptualised and modelled the exposure configurations (two orders of magnitude); which progeny to include with the parent radionuclide (typically less than one order of magnitude); and dose calculation parameters, including radiation weighting factors and dose conversion coefficients (typically less than one order of magnitude). Probabilistic approaches to model parameterisation were used to encompass and describe variable model parameters and outcomes. The study confirms the need for continued evaluation of the underlying mechanisms governing soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides to improve estimation of dose rates to terrestrial wildlife. The exposure pathways and configurations available in most current codes are limited when considering instances where organisms access subsurface contamination through rooting, burrowing, or using different localised waste areas as part of their habitual routines. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Assessment of modelled dose rates to terrestrial biota from radionuclides. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The substantial variation among current approaches is quantifiable. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The dominant variable was soil

  12. Inter-comparison and performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govardhan, Gaurav R.; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.; Satheesh, S. K.; Moorthy, K. Krishna; Takemura, Toshihiko

    2016-01-01

    Aerosol loading over the South Asian region has the potential to affect the monsoon rainfall, Himalayan glaciers and regional air-quality, with implications for the billions in this region. While field campaigns and network observations provide primary data, they tend to be location/season specific. Numerical models are useful to regionalize such location-specific data. Studies have shown that numerical models underestimate the aerosol scenario over the Indian region, mainly due to shortcomings related to meteorology and the emission inventories used. In this context, we have evaluated the performance of two such chemistry-transport models: WRF-Chem and SPRINTARS over an India-centric domain. The models differ in many aspects including physical domain, horizontal resolution, meteorological forcing and so on etc. Despite these differences, both the models simulated similar spatial patterns of Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration, (with a spatial correlation of 0.9 with each other), and a reasonable estimates of its concentration, though both of them under-estimated vis-a-vis the observations. While the emissions are lower (higher) in SPRINTARS (WRF-Chem), overestimation of wind parameters in WRF-Chem caused the concentration to be similar in both models. Additionally, we quantified the underestimations of anthropogenic BC emissions in the inventories used these two models and three other widely used emission inventories. Our analysis indicates that all these emission inventories underestimate the emissions of BC over India by a factor that ranges from 1.5 to 2.9. We have also studied the model simulations of aerosol optical depth over the Indian region. The models differ significantly in simulations of AOD, with WRF-Chem having a better agreement with satellite observations of AOD as far as the spatial pattern is concerned. It is important to note that in addition to BC, dust can also contribute significantly to AOD. The models differ in simulations of the spatial

  13. Numerical models of volcanic eruption plumes: inter-comparison and sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio; Suzuki, Yujiro; Folch, Arnau; Cioni, Raffaello

    2016-10-01

    The accurate description of the dynamics of convective plumes developed during explosive volcanic eruptions represents one of the most crucial and intriguing challenges in volcanology. Eruptive plume dynamics are significantly affected by complex interactions with the surrounding atmosphere, in the case of both strong eruption columns, rising vertically above the tropopause, and weak volcanic plumes, developing within the troposphere and often following bended trajectories. The understanding of eruptive plume dynamics is pivotal for estimating mass flow rates of volcanic sources, a crucial aspect for tephra dispersion models used to assess aviation safety and tephra fallout hazard. For these reasons, several eruption column models have been developed in the past decades, including the more recent sophisticated computational fluid dynamic models.

  14. Inter-comparisons of thermodynamic sea-ice modeling results using various parameterizations of radiative flux

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Radiative fluxes are of primary importance in the energy and mass balance of the sea-ice cover. Various parameterizations of the radiative fluxes are studied in a thermodynamic sea-ice model. Model outputs of the surface radiative and heat fluxes and mass balance are compared with observations. The contribution of short-wave radiation is limited to a long part of winter. Therefore, simple schemes are often sufficient. Errors in estimations of the short-wave radiation are due mainly to cloud effects and occasionally to multi-reflection between surface and ice crystals in the air. The long-wave radiation plays an important role in the ice surface heat and mass balance during most part of a winter. The effect of clouds on the accuracy of the simple radiative schemes is critical, which needs further attention. In general, the accuracy of an ice model depends on that of the radiative fluxes.

  15. Inter Comparison of Atmospheric Correction Models - SACRS2, FLAASH and 6SV Using Resourcesat-2 AWiFS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, V. N.; Pandya, M. R.; Shah, D. B.; Trivedi, H. J.; Patel, K. D.; Sridhar, V. N.; Singh, R. P.

    2014-11-01

    Remote sensing measurements from space born sensors are strongly attenuated by the scattering and absorption processes through atmospheric molecules, aerosols and gases (ozone, water vapour, oxygen etc). The process of removing the atmospheric interference from the satellite-level signal is called atmospheric correction. Atmospheric correction can be performed through various methods such as, empirical method, semi-physical method, detailed radiative transfer models. Various methods exist for atmospheric correction of available global sensors such as NOAA-AVHRR, MODIS-Terra/Aqua, MERIS, Landsat-TM/ETM etc. However, there was no method available for atmospheric correction of the IRS data sets. A new physics-based model called Scheme for Atmospheric Correction of ResourceSat-2 AWiFS data (SACRS2) has been developed at Space Applications Centre (SAC) specifically tuned for the RS2-AWiFS sensor. This model has been developed from theoretical signal simulations using the 6SV (The Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum vector version) code. A detail analysis was carried out to perform inter comparison of the results of SACRS2 model with standard atmospheric correction models such as FLAASH (Fast Line-of-sight Atmospheric Analysis of Spectral Hypercube) and 6SV on RS2-AWiFS data. In turn, the performance of all three models was compared to in-situ measurements carried out over an experimental site located in the Kutch desert for seven RS2-AWiFS overpasses. The results showed a fairly good match of reflectance derived by all three correction models with the in-situ measurements.

  16. Glacial isostatic adjustment associated with the Barents Sea ice sheet: A modelling inter-comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auriac, A.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Bentley, M. J.; Patton, H.; Lloyd, J. M.; Hubbard, A.

    2016-09-01

    The 3D geometrical evolution of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet (BSIS), particularly during its late-glacial retreat phase, remains largely ambiguous due to the paucity of direct marine- and terrestrial-based evidence constraining its horizontal and vertical extent and chronology. One way of validating the numerous BSIS reconstructions previously proposed is to collate and apply them under a wide range of Earth models and to compare prognostic (isostatic) output through time with known relative sea-level (RSL) data. Here we compare six contrasting BSIS load scenarios via a spherical Earth system model and derive a best-fit, χ2 parameter using RSL data from the four main terrestrial regions within the domain: Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya and northern Norway. Poor χ2 values allow two load scenarios to be dismissed, leaving four that agree well with RSL observations. The remaining four scenarios optimally fit the RSL data when combined with Earth models that have an upper mantle viscosity of 0.2-2 × 1021 Pa s, while there is less sensitivity to the lithosphere thickness (ranging from 71 to 120 km) and lower mantle viscosity (spanning 1-50 × 1021 Pa s). GPS observations are also compared with predictions of present-day uplift across the Barents Sea. Key locations where relative sea-level and GPS data would prove critical in constraining future ice-sheet modelling efforts are also identified.

  17. Inter-comparison of Aermod and ISC3 modeling results to the Alaska tracer field experiment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    AERMOD is an advanced plume model that incorporates updated treatments of the boundary layer theory, understanding of turbulence and dispersion, and includes handling of terrain interactions as well as the PRIME downwash algorithm. It was reported that the US EPA approved AERMOD for short-range dispersion modeling. It was the high time that AERMOD would replace ISC3. ISC3 is a traditional Gaussian plume model regarded as the regulatory model of US EPA with the capacity of building downwash similar to that of AERMOD. In this paper, the authors describe the advantages of AERMOD over the regulatory model of ISC3 by comparing their predicted ground level concentrations (GLC) along downwind distance to the Alaska tracer field data. The field experiment features buoyant release of effluent at elevated height over a flat terrain and local flows influenced by building downwash. Three measures to compare the observed and simulated concentration data, such as linear regression, quantile-quantile (QQ) and residual box are utilized. To sum up, AERMOD shows significantly better space-time correlation and probability distribution than the ISC3, which frequently overestimates the GLC for effluent released with significant plume rise under stable atmospheric conditions. The performance of AERMOD is greatly enhanced by introducing the state-of-the-art knowledge of boundary layer meteorology as well as the turbulence parameterization method. In particular, AERMOD takes into account the meander effect on coherent plume in stable condition with current state-of-the-art Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations, while ISC3 is not capable of producing such important effect. Generally speaking, 1.17 is the overall predicted-to-observed ratio for short-term averages using AERMOD. 1.94 is the overall predicted-to-observed ratio for short-term averages using ISC3.

  18. Inter-comparison of relative stopping power estimation models for proton therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doolan, P. J.; Collins-Fekete, Charles-Antoine; Dias, Marta F.; Ruggieri, Thomas A.; D'Souza, Derek; Seco, Joao

    2016-11-01

    Theoretical stopping power values were inter-compared for the Bichsel, Janni, ICRU and Schneider relative stopping power (RSP) estimation models, for a variety of tissues and tissue substitute materials taken from the literature. The RSPs of eleven plastic tissue substitutes were measured using Bragg peak shift measurements in water in order to establish a gold standard of RSP values specific to our centre’s proton beam characteristics. The theoretical tissue substitute RSP values were computed based on literature compositions to assess the four different computation approaches. The Bichsel/Janni/ICRU approaches led to mean errors in the RSP of  -0.1/+0.7/-0.8%, respectively. Errors when using the Schneider approach, with I-values from the Bichsel, Janni and ICRU sources, followed the same pattern but were generally larger. Following this, the mean elemental ionisation energies were optimized until the differences between theoretical RSP values matched measurements. Failing to use optimized I-values when applying the Schneider technique to 72 human tissues could introduce errors in the RSP of up to  -1.7/+1.1/-0.4% when using Bichsel/Janni/ICRU I-values, respectively. As such, it may be necessary to introduce an additional step in the current stoichiometric calibration procedure in which tissue insert RSPs are measured in a proton beam. Elemental I-values can then optimized to match these measurements, reducing the uncertainty when calculating human tissue RSPs.

  19. Inter-comparison of energy balance and hydrological models for land surface energy flux estimation over a whole river catchment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzinski, R.; Nieto, H.; Stisen, S.

    2015-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is the main link between the natural water cycle and the land surface energy budget. Therefore water-balance and energy-balance approaches are two of the main methodologies for modelling this process. The water-balance approach is usually implemented as a complex, distribu...... derived with the energy-balance models, satellite based LST or another source) into the hydrological models. How this could be achieved and how to evaluate the improvements, or lack of thereof, is still an open research question.......-balance (TSEB) scheme, against a hydrological model, MIKE SHE, calibrated over the Skjern river catchment in western Denmark. The three models utilize different primary inputs to estimate ET (LST from different satellites in the case of remote sensing models and modelled soil moisture and heat flux in the case...

  20. Inter-comparison of state-of-the-art MSS and geoid models in the Arctic Ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skourup, Henriette; Farrell, Sinead; Hendricks, Stefan

    in errors in the estimated freeboard heights, especially in areas with a sparse lead distribution in consolidated ice conditions. Additionally these errors can impact ocean geostrophic current estimates and remaining biases in the models may impact longer-term, multi-sensor oceanographic time-series of sea......State-of-the-art Arctic Ocean mean sea surface (MSS) and geoid models are used to support sea ice freeboard estimation from satellite altimeters, and for oceanographic studies. However, errors in a given model in the high frequency domain, e.g. due to unresolved gravity features, can result...

  1. Inter-comparison of hydrological model simulations with dense time series of SAR-derived soil moisture maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacobellis, V.; Gioia, A.; Milella, P.; Satalino, G.; Balenzano, A.; Mattia, F.

    2012-04-01

    Over the last years, a vast number of experimental and theoretical studies has widely demonstrated the sensitivity of SAR data to soil moisture content, however, operational services integrating SAR measurements into land process models are not yet available. Important progresses in this field are expected, on the one hand, from SAR missions characterized by a short revisiting time, such as the COSMO-SkyMed or the forthcoming Sentinel-1 and ALOS-2 missions, on the other hand, from a strong effort in implementing hydrological models able to reproduce the dynamic of soil moisture content of the top layer (5 cm depth) of soil. With this latter purpose, we used the DREAM model [Manfreda et al., 2005], realized in a GIS-based approach, that explicitly takes into account the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes. The DREAM model carries out continuous hydrological simulations using the daily and the hourly scales. The distinctive feature of the model, which consists of evaluating the lateral flow through a water content redistribution weighted by the topographic index, was preserved. The latter provided the basis for the nested implementation of the Richard equation which has been used for evaluating vertical flows in the top soil layer (5cm).The Richard routine exploits the numerical solution proposed by Simunek et al. [2009] and runs, for each cell of the river basin, in a sub-module of 60 minutes with a vertical (i.e. depth) and temporal resolution of 1 cm and 1 s, respectively. The model was applied to the portion of the Celone at Foggia San Severo river basin downstream the San Giusto Dam, which is a tributary of the Candelaro river, in Puglia region (Southern Italy). Over this area quasi-dense time series of ALOS/PALSAR ScanSAR WB1 and COSMO-SkyMedStripMap images were acquired in 2007 and 2010, respectively. The SAR data have been used to derive time-series of soil moisture maps by means of the SMOSAR software developed for Sentinel-1 data [Balenzano et

  2. Inter-comparison of model-simulated and satellite-retrieved componential aerosol optical depths in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shenshen; Yu, Chao; Chen, Liangfu; Tao, Jinhua; Letu, Husi; Ge, Wei; Si, Yidan; Liu, Yang

    2016-09-01

    China's large aerosol emissions have major impacts on global climate change as well as regional air pollution and its associated disease burdens. A detailed understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of aerosol components is necessary for the calculation of aerosol radiative forcing and the development of effective emission control policy. Model-simulated and satellite-retrieved aerosol components can support climate change research, PM2.5 source appointment and epidemiological studies. This study evaluated the total and componential aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the GEOS-Chem model (GC) and the Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART), and the Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) from 2006 to 2009 in China. Linear regression analysis between the GC and AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) in China yielded similar correlation coefficients (0.6 daily, 0.71 monthly) but lower slopes (0.41 daily, 0.58 monthly) compared with those in the U.S. This difference was attributed to GC's underestimation of water-soluble AOD (WAOD) west of the Heihe-Tengchong Line, the dust AOD (DAOD) in the fall and winter, and the soot AOD (SAOD) throughout the year and throughout the country. GOCART exhibits the strongest dust estimation capability among all datasets. However, the GOCART soot distribution in the Northeast and Southeast has significant errors, and its WAOD in the polluted North China Plain (NCP) and the South is underestimated. MISR significantly overestimates the water-soluble aerosol levels in the West, and does not capture the high dust loadings in all seasons and regions, and the SAOD in the NCP. These discrepancies can mainly be attributed to the uncertainties in the emission inventories of both models, the poor performance of GC under China's high aerosol loading conditions, the omission of certain aerosol tracers in GOCART, and the tendency of MISR to misidentify dust and non-dust mixtures.

  3. An inter-comparison of soil moisture data products from satellite remote sensing and a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Li; Hain, Christopher R.; Zhan, Xiwu; Anderson, Martha C.

    2016-06-01

    Significant advances have been achieved in generating soil moisture (SM) products from satellite remote sensing and/or land surface modeling with reasonably good accuracy in recent years. However, the discrepancies among the different SM data products can be considerably large, which hampers their usage in various applications. The bias of one SM product from another is well recognized in the literature. Bias estimation and spatial correction methods have been documented for assimilating satellite SM product into land surface and hydrologic models. Nevertheless, understanding the characteristics of each of these SM data products is required for many applications where the most accurate data products are desirable. This study inter-compares five SM data products from three different sources with each other, and evaluates them against in situ SM measurements over 14-year period from 2000 to 2013. Specifically, three microwave (MW) satellite based data sets provided by ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) (CCI-merged, -active and -passive products), one thermal infrared (TIR) satellite based product (ALEXI), and the Noah land surface model (LSM) simulations. The in-situ SM measurements are collected from the North American Soil Moisture Database (NASMD), which involves more than 600 ground sites from a variety of networks. They are used to evaluate the accuracies of these five SM data products. In general, each of the five SM products is capable of capturing the dry/wet patterns over the study period. However, the absolute SM values among the five products vary significantly. SM simulations from Noah LSM are more stable relative to the satellite-based products. All TIR and MW satellite based products are relatively noisier than the Noah LSM simulations. Even though MW satellite based SM retrievals have been predominantly used in the past years, SM retrievals of the ALEXI model based on TIR satellite observations demonstrate skills equivalent to all the MW satellite

  4. Inter-comparison of 10-year precipitation simulated by several RCMs for Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jinming; Fu, Congbin

    2006-12-01

    In phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (RMIP) for Asia, the regional climate has been simulated for July 1988 through December 1998 by five regional climate models and one global variable resolution model. Comparison of the 10-year simulated precipitation with the observations was carried out. The results show that most models have the capacity to reproduce the basic spatial pattern of precipitation for Asia, and the main rainbelt can be reproduced by most models, but there are distinctions in the location and the intensity. Most models overestimate the precipitation over most continental regions. Interannual variability of the precipitation can also be basically simulated, while differences exist between various models and the observations. The biases in the stream field are important reasons behind the simulation errors of the Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The cumulus scheme and land surface process have large influences on the precipitation simulation. Generally, the Grell cumulus scheme produces more precipitation than the Kuo scheme.

  5. Inter-Comparison of 10-year Precipitation Simulated by Several RCMs for Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    In phase Ⅱ of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (RMIP) for Asia, the regional climate has been simulated for July 1988 through December 1998 by five regional climate models and one global variable resolution model. Comparison of the 10-year simulated precipitation with the observations was carried out. The results show that most models have the capacity to reproduce the basic spatial pattern of precipitation for Asia, and the main rainbelt can be reproduced by most models, but there are distinctions in the location and the intensity. Most models overestimate the precipitation over most continental regions. Interannual variability of the precipitation can also be basically simulated, while differences exist between various models and the observations. The biases in the stream field are important reasons behind the simulation errors of the Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The cumulus scheme and land surface process have large influences on the precipitation simulation. Generally, the Grell cumulus scheme produces more precipitation than the Kuo scheme.

  6. Inter-comparison of two land-surface models applied at different scales and their feedbacks while coupled with a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Downstream models are often used in order to study regional impacts of climate and climate change on the land surface. For this purpose, they are usually driven offline (i.e., 1-way with results from regional climate models (RCMs. However, the offline approach does not allow for feedbacks between these models. Thereby, the land surface of the downstream model is usually completely different to the land surface which is used within the RCM. Thus, this study aims at investigating the inconsistencies that arise when driving a downstream model offline instead of interactively coupled with the RCM, due to different feedbacks from the use of different land surface models (LSM. Therefore, two physically based LSMs which developed from different disciplinary backgrounds are compared in our study: while the NOAH-LSM was developed for the use within RCMs, PROMET was originally developed to answer hydrological questions on the local to regional scale. Thereby, the models use different physical formulations on different spatial scales and different parameterizations of the same land surface processes that lead to inconsistencies when driving PROMET offline with RCM output. Processes that contribute to these inconsistencies are, as described in this study, net radiation due to land use related albedo and emissivity differences, the redistribution of this net radiation over sensible and latent heat, for example, due to different assumptions about land use impermeability or soil hydraulic reasons caused by different plant and soil parameterizations. As a result, simulated evapotranspiration, e.g., shows considerable differences of max. 280 mm yr−1. For a full interactive coupling (i.e., 2-way between PROMET and the atmospheric part of the RCM, PROMET returns the land surface energy fluxes to the RCM and, thus, provides the lower boundary conditions for the RCM subsequently. Accordingly, the RCM responses to the replacement of the LSM with overall

  7. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J.C.S.; Falloon, P.D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F.T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D.B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathw

  8. Inter-comparison of source apportionment models for the estimation of wood burning aerosols during wintertime in an Alpine city (Grenoble, France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Favez

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The emission of organic aerosols (OA in the ambient air by residential wood burning is nowadays a subject of great scientific concern and a growing number of studies aim at apportioning the influence of such emissions on urban air quality. In the present study, results obtained using two commonly-used source apportionment models, i.e., Chemical Mass Balance (CMB, performed with off-line filter measurements and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF, applied to aerosol mass spectrometer measurements, as well as using the recently-proposed aethalometer model (based on the measurement of the aerosol light absorption at different wavelengths are inter-compared. This work is performed using field data obtained during the winter season (14 to 30 January 2009 at an urban background site of a French Alpine city (Grenoble. Converging results from the different models indicate a major contribution of wood burning organic aerosols (OMwb to the organic fraction, with mean OMwb contributions to total OA of about 67%, 60% and 38% for the CMB, the aethalometer and the AMS-PMF models, respectively. Quantitative discrepancies might notably be due to the overestimation of OMwb calculated by the CMB due to the loss of semi-volatile compounds from sources to receptor site, as well as to the accounting of oxidized primary wood burning organic (OPOAwb aerosols within the Oxygenated Organic Aerosol (OOA PMF-factor. This OOA factor accounts on average for about 50% of total OM, while non-combustion sources contribute to about 25% and 28% of total OM according to the CMB and aethalometer models, respectively. Each model suggests a mean contribution of fossil fuel emissions to total OM of about 10%. A good agreement is also obtained for the source apportionment of elemental carbon (EC by both the CMB and aethalometer models, with fossil fuel emissions representing on average more than 80% of total EC.

  9. SimilarityExplorer: A visual inter-comparison tool for multifaceted climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Poco; A. Dasgupta; Y. Wei; W. Hargrove; C. Schwalm; R. Cook; E. Bertini; C. Silva

    2014-01-01

    Inter-comparison and similarity analysis to gauge consensus among multiple simulation models is a critical visualization problem for understanding climate change patterns. Climate models, specifically, Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBM) represent time and space variable ecosystem processes, for example, simulations of photosynthesis and respiration, using algorithms...

  10. Radioxenon standards used in laboratory inter-comparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gohla, H; Auer, M; Cassette, Ph; Hague, R K; Lechermann, M; Nadalut, B

    2016-03-01

    Preparation methods for (133)Xe standards of activity concentration and the results of the 2014 (133)Xe laboratory inter-comparison exercise are described. One element of the quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) program for laboratories of the International Monitoring System (IMS) will be regular inter-comparison exercises. However, until recently, no activity concentration standards for benchmarking were available. Therefore, two (133)Xe activity concentration reference standards were produced independently by Idaho National Laboratory and Seibersdorf Laboratories and used for the 2014 laboratory inter-comparison exercise. The preparation of a complementary (127)Xe activity concentration standard as well as a (127)Xe laboratory inter-comparison exercise suggests (127)Xe as a suitable isotope for QA/QC of remote IMS noble gas stations.

  11. Airborne hygrometer calibration inter-comparison against a metrological water vapour standard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smorgon, Denis; Boese, Norbert; Ebert, Volker

    2014-05-01

    of PTB and a validated, two-pressure generator acting as a highly stable and reproducible source of water vapour. The aim of AV2-B was to perform an absolute, metrological comparison of the field instruments/calibration infrastructures to the metrological humidity scale, and to collect essential information about methods and procedures used by the atmospheric community for instrument calibration and validation, in order to investigate e.g. the necessity and possible comparability advantage by a standardized calibration procedure. The work will give an overview over the concept of the AV2-B inter-comparison, the various general measurement and calibration principles, and discuss the outcome and consequences of the comparison effort. The AQUAVIT effort is linked to the EMRP project METEOMET (ENV07) and partially supported by the EMRP and ENV07. The EMRP is jointly funded by the EMRP participating countries within EURAMET and the European Union. [1] H. Saathoff, C. Schiller, V. Ebert, D. W. Fahey, R.-S. Gao, O. Möhler, and the aquavit team, The AQUAVIT formal intercomparison of atmospheric water measurement methods, 5th General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union, 13-18 April 2008, Vienna, Austria Keywords: humidity, water vapour, inter-comparison, airborne instruments.

  12. The CEOS/WGCV LPV strategy for defining FAPAR inter-comparison and validation protocols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobron, N.; Sanchez-Azofeifa, A.; Widlowski, J.; Pickett Heaps, C.; Meroni, M.; Plummer, S.

    2012-12-01

    The Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) has been recognized as one of the fundamental terrestrial state variables in the context of global change science [Steering Committee for GCOS, 2003]. It is a key quantity in models assessing vegetation primary productivity and, more generally, in carbon cycle models implementing up-to-date land surface processes schemes. For over a decade, several FAPAR products have been derived from various space-borne optical sensors using different algorithms. Even though the quality requirements of satellite derived FAPAR products are well defined and some inter-comparisons and validation exercises have been made by individual teams, none have involved the entire community. At the same time, there is no comprehensive database of ground-based measurements of FAPAR. Such a database would address problems such as assembling the needed vertical and horizontal fluxes separately for the direct and diffuse radiation, measured with the appropriate sampling step and at a spatial resolution compatible with the remote sensing products, for the same ambient conditions as those prevailing during the acquisition of the remote sensing data. The CEOS Working Group on Calibration and Validation (WGCV) Land Product Validation (LPV) FAPAR sub-group hereby presents a strategy for defining and implementing a global inter-comparison and validation protocol for the FAPAR variable. This paper will consider various ways to perform the inter-comparisons, as well as to propose protocols for the verification of algorithms using synthetic data sets and for the validation of the products against ground-based measurements (Fluxnet, Belmanip2, NEON, TROPI-DRY and TERN).

  13. Hadronic shower code inter-comparison and verification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mokhov, N.V.; Striganov, S.I.; /Fermilab

    2007-01-01

    To evaluate the quality of general purpose particle interaction and transport codes widely used in the high-energy physics community, express benchmarking is conducted. Seven tasks, important for high-energy physics applications, are chosen. For this first shot, they are limited to particle production on thin and thick targets and energy deposition in targets and calorimetric setups. Five code groups were asked to perform calculations in the identical conditions and provide results to the authors of this report. Summary of the code inter-comparison and verification against available experimental data is presented in this paper. Agreement is quite reasonable in many cases, but quite serious problems were revealed in the others.

  14. The Joint Experiment for Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM): Update on Multisite Inter-comparison Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, I.; Gilliams, S. J. B.; Defourny, P.

    2016-12-01

    Globally there is significant convergence on agricultural monitoring research questions. The focus of interest usually revolves around crop type, crop area estimation and near real time crop condition and yield forecasting. Notwithstanding this convergence, agricultural systems differ significantly throughout the world, reflecting the diversity of ecosystems they are located in. Consequently, a global system of systems for operational monitoring must be based on multiple approaches. Research is required to compare and assess these approaches to identify which are most appropriate for any given location. To this end the Joint Experiments for Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) was established in 2009 to as a research platform to allow the global agricultural monitoring community to work towards a set of best practices and recommendations for using earth observation data to map, monitor and report on agricultural productivity globally. The JECAM initiative brings together researchers from a large number of globally distributed, well monitored agricultural test sites that cover a range of crop types, cropping systems and climate regimes. The results of JECAM optical inter-comparison research taking place in the Stimulating Innovation for Global Monitoring of Agriculture (SIGMA) project and the Sentinel-2 for Agriculture project will be discussed. The presentation will also highlight upcoming work on a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) inter-comparison study. The outcome of these projects will result in a set of best practices that cover the range of remote sensing monitoring and reporting needs, including satellite data acquisition, pre-processing techniques, information retrieval and ground data validation. These outcomes provide the R&D foundation for GEOGLAM and will help to inform the development of the GEOGLAM system of systems for global agricultural monitoring.

  15. Inter-comparison of GRACE data over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Chandan; Kumar, D. Nagesh

    2016-05-01

    The advent of satellite remote sensing and its use in hydrology has facilitated a huge leap in the understanding of the various water resources, its interaction with ecological systems and anthropogenic creations. Recently, NASA and German Aerospace Research Agency-DLR launched the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission consisting of two satellites. They measure the time varying gravity which gives changes in the distribution of mass on the surface of the earth which after removing atmospheric and oceanic effects is majorly caused by changes in Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) changes. GRACE data is generally available as spherical harmonic coefficients, which is difficult for hydrologists to understand and interpret. JPL's TELLUS website is now providing gridded global data set in the form of mass anomaly derived from the Level-2 data sets of spherical harmonic coefficients of 3 sources, viz. CSR, GFZ and JPL. Before using these data sets for solving hydrological problems, it is important to understand the differences and similarities between these data sets as direct calibration of GRACE data is not possible. In this study we do an inter-comparison of the Level-3 Release 05 data sets over India. We compare the data sets using Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation. CSR and GFZ data sets appear to be closest to each other whereas JPL and GFZ data sets are most different from each other.

  16. Inter-comparison of MAX-DOAS Retrieved Vertical Profiles of Aerosol Extinction, SO2 and NO2 in the Alberta Oil Sands with LIDAR Data and GEM-MACH Air Quality Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Zoe; Friess, Udo; Strawbridge, Kevin; Whiteway, James; Aggarwal, Monika; Makar, Paul; Li, Shao-Meng; O'Brien, Jason; Baray, Sabour; Schnitzler, Elijah; Olfert, Jason S.; Osthoff, Hans D.; Lobo, Akshay; McLaren, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Understanding industrial emissions of trace gas pollutants in the Alberta oil sands is essential to maintaining air quality standards and informing public policy. Multi-Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) measurements of trace gases can improve knowledge of pollutant levels, vertical distribution and chemical transformation. During an intensive air measurement campaign to study emissions, transport, transformation and deposition of oil sands air pollutants from August to September of 2013, a MAX-DOAS instrument was deployed at a site north of Fort McMurray, Alberta to determine the vertical profiles of aerosol extinction, NO2 and SO2 through retrieval from the MAX-DOAS spectral measurements using an optimal estimation method. The large complement of data collected from multiple instruments deployed during this field campaign provides a unique opportunity to validate and characterize the performance of the MAX-DOAS vertical profile retrievals. Aerosol extinction profiles determined from two Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) instruments, one collocated and the other on a Twin Otter aircraft that flew over the site during the study, will be compared to the MAX-DOAS aerosol extinction profile retrievals. Vertical profiles of NO2 and SO2 retrieved from the MAX-DOAS measurements will be further compared with the composite vertical profiles measured from the flights of a second aircraft, the NRC-Convair 580, over the field site during the same measurement period. Finally, the MAX-DOAS retrieved tropospheric vertical column densities (VCDs) of SO2 and NO2 will be compared to the predicted VCDs from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multi-scale - Modelling Air quality and Chemistry (GEM-MACH) air quality model over the grid cell containing the field site. Emission estimates of SO2 from the major oil mining facility Syncrude Mildred Lake using the MAX-DOAS VCD results, validated through the detailed characterization above

  17. Inverse modeling of CO2 sources and sinks using satellite data: A synthetic inter-comparison of measurement techniques and their performance as a function of space and time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Heimann

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently two polar orbiting satellite instruments measure CO2 concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere, while other missions are planned for the coming years. In the future such instruments might become powerful tools for monitoring changes in the atmospheric CO2 abundance and to improve our quantitative understanding of the leading processes controlling this. At the moment, however, we are still in an exploratory phase where first experiences are collected and promising new space-based measurement concepts are investigated. This study assesses the potential of some of these concepts to improve CO2 source and sink estimates obtained from inverse modelling. For this purpose the performance of existing and planned satellite instruments is quantified by synthetic simulations of their ability to reduce the uncertainty of the current source and sink estimates in comparison with the existing ground-based network of sampling sites. Our high resolution inversion of sources and sinks (at 8º x 10º allows us to investigate the variation of instrument performance in space and time and at various temporal and spatial scales. The results of our synthetic tests clearly indicate that the satellite performance increases with increasing sensitivity of the instrument to CO2 near the Earth's surface, favoring the near infra-red technique. Thermal infrared instruments, on the contrary, reach a better global coverage, because the performance in the near infrared is reduced over the oceans owing to a low surface albedo. Near infra-red sounders can compensate for this by measuring in sun-glint, which will allow accurate measurements over the oceans, at the cost, however, of a lower measurement density. Overall, the sun-glint pointing near infrared instrument is the most promising concept of those tested. We show that the ability of satellite instruments to resolve fluxes at smaller temporal and spatial scales is also related to surface sensitivity. All the satellite

  18. Inverse modeling of CO2 sources and sinks using satellite data: a synthetic inter-comparison of measurement techniques and their performance as a function of space and time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Houweling

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently two polar orbiting satellite instruments measure CO2 concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere, while other missions are planned for the coming years. In the future such instruments might become powerful tools for monitoring changes in the atmospheric CO2 abundance and to improve our quantitative understanding of the leading processes controlling this. At the moment, however, we are still in an exploratory phase where first experiences are collected and promising new space-based measurement concepts are investigated. This study assesses the potential of some of these concepts to improve CO2 source and sink estimates obtained from inverse modelling. For this purpose the performance of existing and planned satellite instruments is quantified by synthetic simulations of their ability to reduce the uncertainty of the current source and sink estimates in comparison with the existing ground-based network of sampling sites. Our high resolution inversion of sources and sinks (at 8°x10° allows us to investigate the variation of instrument performance in space and time and at various temporal and spatial scales. The results of our synthetic tests clearly indicate that the satellite performance increases with increasing sensitivity of the instrument to CO2 near the Earth's surface, favoring the near infra-red technique. Thermal infrared instruments, on the contrary, reach a better global coverage, because the performance in the near infrared is reduced over the oceans owing to a low surface albedo. Near infra-red sounders can compensate for this by measuring in sun-glint, which will allow accurate measurements over the oceans, at the cost, however, of a lower measurement density. Overall, the sun-glint pointing near infrared instrument is the most promising concept of those tested. We show that the ability of satellite instruments to resolve fluxes at smaller temporal and spatial scales is also related to surface sensitivity. All the satellite

  19. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, P.; Stone, E.J.; Charbit, S.; Gröger, M.; Krebs- Kanzow, U.; Ritz, S.P.; Varma, V.; Khon, S.; Lunt, D.J.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Prange, M.; Renssen, H.; Schneider, B.; Schulz, M.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract. There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes during the Last Interglacial period. This period is of special interest because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test b

  20. The InterFrost benchmark of Thermo-Hydraulic codes for cold regions hydrology - first inter-comparison phase results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenier, Christophe; Rühaak, Wolfram

    2016-04-01

    Climate change impacts in permafrost regions have received considerable attention recently due to the pronounced warming trends experienced in recent decades and which have been projected into the future. Large portions of these permafrost regions are characterized by surface water bodies (lakes, rivers) that interact with the surrounding permafrost often generating taliks (unfrozen zones) within the permafrost that allow for hydrologic interactions between the surface water bodies and underlying aquifers and thus influence the hydrologic response of a landscape to climate change. Recent field studies and modeling exercises indicate that a fully coupled 2D or 3D Thermo-Hydraulic (TH) approach is required to understand and model past and future evolution such units (Kurylyk et al. 2014). However, there is presently a paucity of 3D numerical studies of permafrost thaw and associated hydrological changes, which can be partly attributed to the difficulty in verifying multi-dimensional results produced by numerical models. A benchmark exercise was initialized at the end of 2014. Participants convened from USA, Canada, Europe, representing 13 simulation codes. The benchmark exercises consist of several test cases inspired by existing literature (e.g. McKenzie et al., 2007) as well as new ones (Kurylyk et al. 2014; Grenier et al. in prep.; Rühaak et al. 2015). They range from simpler, purely thermal 1D cases to more complex, coupled 2D TH cases (benchmarks TH1, TH2, and TH3). Some experimental cases conducted in a cold room complement the validation approach. A web site hosted by LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) is an interaction platform for the participants and hosts the test case databases at the following address: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/interfrost. The results of the first stage of the benchmark exercise will be presented. We will mainly focus on the inter-comparison of participant results for the coupled cases TH2 & TH3. Both cases

  1. Inter-comparison of MARS and FLUKA: Predictions on Energy Deposition in LHC IR Quadrupoles

    CERN Document Server

    Hoa, C; Cerutti, F; Ferrai, A

    2008-01-01

    Detailed modellings of the LHC insertion regions (IR) have earlier been performed to evaluate energy deposition in the IR superconducting magnets [1-4]. Proton-proton collisions at 14 TeV in the centre of mass lead to debris, depositing energy in the IR components. To evaluate uncertainties in those simulations and gain further confidence in the tools and approaches used, inter-comparison calculations have been performed with the latest versions of the FLUKA (2006.3b) [5, 6] and MARS15 [7, 8] Monte Carlo codes. These two codes, used worldwide for multi particle interaction and transport in accelerator, detector and shielding components, have been thoroughly benchmarked by the code authors and the user community (see, for example, recent [9, 10]). In the study described below, a better than 5% agreement was obtained for energy deposition calculated with these two codes - based on different independent physics models - for the identical geometry and initial conditions of a simple model representing the IR5 and ...

  2. Enrollment Projection Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, B. Kerry; Hample, Stephen R.

    General documentation for the Enrollment Projection Model used by the Maryland Council for Higher Education (MCHE) is provided. The manual is directed toward both the potential users of the model as well as others interested in enrollment projections. The first four chapters offer administrators or planners insight into the derivation of the…

  3. The ISSWG line-by-line inter-comparison experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tjemkes, S.A. E-mail: tjemkes@eumetsat.de; Patterson, T.; Rizzi, R.; Shephard, M.W.; Clough, S.A.; Matricardi, M.; Haigh, J.D.; Hoepfner, M.; Payan, S.; Trotsenko, A.; Scott, N.; Rayer, P.; Taylor, J.P.; Clerbaux, C.; Strow, L.L.; DeSouza-Machado, S.; Tobin, D.; Knuteson, R

    2003-04-01

    To document the performance of current line-by-line radiative transfer models, a study was performed to compare the model simulations with real observations and also inter-compare the simulations themselves. Two broadband mid-IR observed spectra with high spectral resolution were analyzed. The observations were done in nadir mode, and at the same time the atmospheric state was carefully monitored. The first dataset consisted of radiance observations using the HIS interferometer during the CAMEX-1 campaign off the east coast of the USA. The second dataset consisted of observations from the ARIES interferometer collected during the Ascension Island campaign over the tropical Atlantic. These two cases are very different with the Ascension Island case being much warmer and more humid than the CAMEX case. In total 13 different research groups participated with seven different line-by-line models. The results of this study indicated that in many spectral regions the models are capable of reproducing the observations to within the observed noise. In some spectral regions relatively large differences between the simulations and observations exist.

  4. Lidar Inter-Comparison Exercise Final Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Protat, Alain [Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ARM), Northern Territory (Australia). Darwin Site; Young, S. [CSIRO, Western Australia (Australia). Marine and Atmospheric Research

    2015-02-01

    The objective of this IOP was to evaluate the performances of the new Leosphere R-MAN 510 lidar procured by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, by testing it against the MPL and Raman lidars at the Darwin ARM site. This lidar is an eye-safe (355 nm), turn-key mini Raman lidar, which allows for the detection of aerosols and cloud properties, and the retrieval of particulate extinction profiles. To do so, the R-MAN 510 lidar has been operated at the Darwin ARM site, next to the MPL, Raman lidar, and Vaisala ceilometer for three months (from 20 January 2013 to 20 April 2013) in order to collect a good sample for statistical comparisons. The comparisons with the Raman lidar were not performed, since the Raman lidar attenuated backscatter and depolarization ratio product was not available. A new product has just been delivered to the ARM archive as a value-added product, hence this study will continue. Nevertheless we have developed software to match the different space and time resolutions of the other lidars and project the data onto a common grid to permit detailed comparison of the instruments’ performance and an enhanced analysis of clouds and aerosols through the use of composite data products, like the ratios of attenuated backscatters, attenuated scattering ratios and depolarization ratios. Comparisons between the MPL and R-MAN510 lidar data exhibit large differences in total attenuated backscatter at 355 and 532 nm, attenuated scattering ratios, and aerosol volume depolarization ratios. Differences in attenuated backscatter result mainly from the different relative contributions of scattering from molecules and particles at the different wavelengths, but there are some intriguing differences that will require further investigations. The differences in volume depolarization ratios are due to the much larger contribution of molecular returns to the volume depolarization ratio (5 times larger at 355 nm than at 532 nm). The R-MAN510 lidar is also found to be

  5. Satellite Derived Volcanic Ash Product Inter-Comparison in Support to SCOPE-Nowcasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddans, Richard; Thomas, Gareth; Pavolonis, Mike; Bojinski, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    In support of aeronautical meteorological services, WMO organized a satellite-based volcanic ash retrieval algorithm inter-comparison activity, to improve the consistency of quantitative volcanic ash products from satellites, under the Sustained, Coordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting (SCOPEe Nowcasting) initiative (http:/ jwww.wmo.int/pagesjprogjsatjscopee nowcasting_en.php). The aims of the intercomparison were as follows: 1. Select cases (Sarychev Peak 2009, Eyjafyallajökull 2010, Grimsvötn 2011, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle 2011, Kirishimayama 2011, Kelut 2014), and quantify the differences between satellite-derived volcanic ash cloud properties derived from different techniques and sensors; 2. Establish a basic validation protocol for satellite-derived volcanic ash cloud properties; 3. Document the strengths and weaknesses of different remote sensing approaches as a function of satellite sensor; 4. Standardize the units and quality flags associated with volcanic cloud geophysical parameters; 5. Provide recommendations to Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) and other users on how to best to utilize quantitative satellite products in operations; 6. Create a "road map" for future volcanic ash related scientific developments and inter-comparison/validation activities that can also be applied to SO2 clouds and emergent volcanic clouds. Volcanic ash satellite remote sensing experts from operational and research organizations were encouraged to participate in the inter-comparison activity, to establish the plans for the inter-comparison and to submit data sets. RAL was contracted by EUMETSAT to perform a systematic inter-comparison of all submitted datasets and results were reported at the WMO International Volcanic Ash Inter-comparison Meeting to held on 29 June - 2 July 2015 in Madison, WI, USA (http:/ /cimss.ssec.wisc.edujmeetings/vol_ash14). 26 different data sets were submitted, from a range of passive imagers and spectrometers and

  6. Inter-comparison in {sup 10}Be analysis starting from pre-purified quartz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schnabel, C. [Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (SUERC), Rankine Avenue, East Kilbride G75 0QF (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: c.schnabel@suerc.gla.ac.uk; Reinhardt, L. [Department of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow G12 8QQ (United Kingdom); Department of Nuclear Physics, Research School of Physical Sciences and Engineering, Australian National University, ACT 0200 (Australia); Barrows, T.T. [Department of Nuclear Physics, Research School of Physical Sciences and Engineering, Australian National University, ACT 0200 (Australia); Bishop, P. [Department of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow G12 8QQ (United Kingdom); Davidson, A. [Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (SUERC), Rankine Avenue, East Kilbride G75 0QF (United Kingdom); Fifield, L.K. [Department of Nuclear Physics, Research School of Physical Sciences and Engineering, Australian National University, ACT 0200 (Australia); Freeman, S. [Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (SUERC), Rankine Avenue, East Kilbride G75 0QF (United Kingdom); Kim, J.Y. [Department of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow G12 8QQ (United Kingdom); Maden, C. [Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (SUERC), Rankine Avenue, East Kilbride G75 0QF (United Kingdom); Xu, S. [Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre (SUERC), Rankine Avenue, East Kilbride G75 0QF (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    The results of the first international inter-comparison of {sup 10}Be analysis from quartz are presented. This inter-comparison includes the sample preparation starting from pre-purified quartz and AMS measurements at SUERC and ANU. Measured {sup 10}Be concentrations agree within their uncertainties for six out of seven samples with {sup 10}Be concentrations greater than 1 x 10{sup 4} at/g quartz. This agreement and also the agreement of {sup 10}Be concentrations analysed from two aliquots of the same sample at SUERC indicate that addition of {sup 9}Be carrier before (used at ANU) or after quartz dissolution (used at SUERC apart from one aliquot of one sample) should not result in substantially different results.

  7. International round-robin inter-comparison of dye-sensitized and crystalline silicon solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chia-Yuan; Ahn, Seung Kyu; Aoki, Dasiuke; Kokubo, Junichi; Yoon, Kyung Hoon; Saito, Hidenori; Lee, Kyung Sik; Magaino, Shinichi; Takagi, Katsuhiko; Lin, Ling-Chuan; Lee, Kun-Mu; Wu, Chun-Guey; Zhou, Hong; Igari, Sanekazu

    2017-02-01

    An international round-robin inter-comparison of the spectral responsivity (SR) and current-voltage (I-V) characteristics for dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) and crystalline silicon solar cells is reported for the first time. The crystalline silicon cells with various spectral responsivities were also calibrated by AIST to validate this round-robin activity. On the basis of the remarkable consistency in Pmax (within ±1.4% among participants) and Isc (within ±1.2% compared to the primary calibration of AIST) of the silicon specimens, the discrepancy in the SR and photovoltaic parameters of five DSCs among three national laboratories can be verified and diagnosed. Recommendations about sample packages, SR and I-V measurement methods as well as the inter-comparison protocol for improving the performance characterization of the mesoscopic DSCs are presented according to the consolidated data and the experience of the participants.

  8. Inter-comparison of IASI and AATSR over an extended period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bali

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The launch of ENVISAT in 2002 and the launch of MetTop-A in 2006 put two highly accurate instruments in space to measure Top of Atmosphere (TOA radiances. These instruments are the AATSR and IASI. While the AATSR, by design is a climate accurate (i.e. accuracy within 0.1 K and stability within 0.05 K dec−1 instrument, the IASI is a hyperspectral instrument that has a stated accuracy of within 0.5 K. This accuracy and stability are used in producing climate CDR's from these instruments and also aids in using these instruments as benchmarks for inter-comparison studies that aim at measuring stability and accuracy of instruments that are concurrently flying with them. The GSICS (Global Space Based Inter-Calibration System has extensively exploited the IASI by comparing its measurements with Polar as well as Geostationary satellite instruments and measuring the in-orbit stability and accuracy of these instruments. More recent re-calibration efforts, such as the NOAA CDR project that is aimed at recalibrating the AVHRR uses the IASI and the AATSR as references. However to trust the recalibrated radiances it is vital that the in-orbit accuracy of the reference sources is known and critical issues such as scan angle dependence, and temporal variation of the accuracy are fully evaluated across a large temperature range (200–300 K. In order to better understand the accuracy and asses the trustworthiness of these references we present here a comprehensive analysis of the AATSR–IASI bias derived from their collocated pixels, over the period January 2008 through March 2011. Our analysis indicates that generally the AATSR (Nadir View and IASI can act as good reference instruments and IASI is much more accurate than its design specification. In fact, taking into account a small bias the AATSR–IASI bias is close to the AATSR pre-launch bias implying that IASI can get close to pre-launch levels of accuracy. We also examine temperature dependent bias in

  9. Ground-based aerosol optical depth inter-comparison campaigns at European EUSAAR super-sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyeki, S.; Gröbner, J.; Wehrli, C.

    2013-05-01

    This work summarizes eight aerosol optical depth (AOD) inter-comparison campaigns conducted during the 2008-2011 period. A PFR (precision filter radiometer) travelling standard from the GAW-PFR network (based at PMOD/WRC, Switzerland) was run alongside existing CIMEL sun-photometers from the PHOTONS/AERONET network located at European stations. Basic statistical analysis of coincident measurements at λ = 500 and 862 nm illustrated good agreement. However, when WMO criteria for traceability were applied only one wavelength at three stations was traceable. Other stations were close to being traceable but had slight issues with window cleanliness and calibration.

  10. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions f...

  11. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...

  12. Sensor Calibration Inter-Comparison Methodologies and Applications TO AVHRR, MODIS, AND VIIRS Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiaoxiong; Wu, Aisheng; Cao, Changyong; Doelling, David

    2012-01-01

    As more and more satellite observations become available to the science and user community, their on-orbit calibration accuracy and consistency over time continue to be an important and challenge issue, especially in the reflective solar spectral regions. In recent years, many sensor calibration inter-comparison methodologies have been developed by different groups and applied to a range of satellite observations, aiming to the improvement of satellite instrument calibration accuracy and data quality. This paper provides an overview of different methodologies developed for inter-comparisons of A VHRR and MODIS observations, and extends their applications to the Visible-Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument. The first VIIRS was launched on-board the NPP spacecraft on October 28, 2011. The VIIRS, designed with MODIS heritage, collects data in 22 spectral bands from visible (VIS) to long-wave infrared (LWIR). Like both Terra and Aqua MODIS, the VIIRS on-orbit calibration is performed using a set of on-board calibrators (OBC), Methodologies discussed in this paper include the use of well-characterized ground reference targets, near simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNO), lunar observations, and deep convective clouds (DeC). Results from long-term A VHRR and MODIS observations and initial assessment of VIIRS on-orbit calibration are presented. Current uncertainties of different methodologies and potential improvements are also discussed in this paper.

  13. On grey relation projection model based on projection pursuit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Shuo; Yang Shanlin; Ma Xijun

    2008-01-01

    Multidimensional grey relation projection value can be synthesized as one-dimensional projection value by u-sing projection pursuit model.The larger the projection value is,the better the model.Thus,according to the projection value,the best one can be chosen from the model aggregation.Because projection pursuit modeling based on accelera-ting genetic algorithm can simplify the implementation procedure of the projection pursuit technique and overcome its complex calculation as well as the difficulty in implementing its program,a new method can be obtained for choosing the best grey relation projection model based on the projection pursuit technique.

  14. Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Dalal, Mamta; Pattnayak, R. K.

    2017-05-01

    Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region.

  15. ScaRaB and CERES-Terra: results of the inter-comparison campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trémas, Thierry L.; Aznay, Ouahid; Chomette, Olivier

    2016-09-01

    ScaRaB (SCAnner for RAdiation Budget) is an Indo-French satellite onboard MEGHA-TROPIQUES launched on October 12th 2011. This radiometer has been designed to fill the gap between the ERBS and CERES missions to study the water cycle and energy exchanges in the tropics. ScaRaB is fit with four parallel and independent channels: channel- 2 and channel-3 being considered as the main ones, channel-1 is dedicated to measure solar radiance while channel-4 is an infrared window. The absolute calibration of ScaRaB is achieved by internal calibration sources (black bodies and a lamp for channel-1). The radiometric properties of deserts sites and more especially their stable spectral response over time made them very good candidates to perform temporal monitoring of ScaRaB channel-1. This paper deals with the corresponding results. High altitude clouds are observed by ScaRaB to survey the balance between channel 2 and channel 3: the earth longwave radiance is isolated by subtracting the short-wave channel to the total channel. Radiometric cross calibration of Earth observation sensors is a crucial need to guarantee or quantify the consistency of measurements from different sensors. CERES and ScaRaB Earth Radiation Budget missions have the same specification: to provide an accuracy of 1% in the measurement of short-wave and long-wave radiances and an estimation of the short-wave and long-wave fluxes less than 10 W/m2. Taking advantage of the "equatorial" orbit of Megha-Tropiques, NASA proceeded to manoeuvers on CERES-Terra in order to ease an inter-comparison between both instruments over common targets. Actually, The CERES PAPS mode was used to align its swath scan in order to increase the collocated pixels between the two instruments. The experience lasted 3 months from March 22th and May 31st 2015. A previous similar campaign has already been led in 2012. This article presents the results of these inter-comparisons, providing an indication on the temporal stability of the

  16. NO2 inter-comparison between Pandora spectrometer and in-situ measurements during MAPS campaign in 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, H.; Kim, J.; Kim, W.; Lee, H.; Kim, J. H.; Choi, M.; Jeong, U.; Koo, J. H.; Herman, J. R.; Abuhassan, N.; Lee, S.; Park, R.; Ahn, J. Y.; Park, J.; Hong, J.; Kim, S. K.

    2016-12-01

    To improve the accuracy of air quality information from satellite retrieval algorithm and model simulations, National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) in Korea and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the United States performed the Megacity Air Pollution Studies (MAPS) campaign from May to June, 2015 as a preliminary work for the KORUS-AQ campaign in 2016. In this study we investigate and evaluate the nitrogen dioxide (NO2) data at six sites obtained from the ground-based remote sensing using Pandora spectrometers and Air Korea surface in-situ measurements during MAPS campaign. Basically measured NO2 shows spatially large differences among sites and also temporally larger diurnal variations, particularly in urban areas. To conduct inter-comparisons between Pandora and in-situ NO2, we need to estimate the tropospheric portion of NO2 from Pandora total column measurements. First we simply use the ratio between tropospheric and total column NO2 density obtained from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements to calculate the tropospheric NO2 density from Pandora total column density. As a result, correlation coefficients between Pandora tropospheric NO2 and in-situ surface NO2 are in the range from 0.13 to 0.61. To enhance a correlation, next we use NO2 vertical profiles obtained from chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) in the process of Pandora tropospheric NO2 estimation, and also compare with in-situ NO2 data. Since planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is known as another key factor to capture the near-surface signal from the total column information, we will calculate a ground-level NO2 using PBL height information from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset.

  17. Inter-comparison of source apportionment of PM10 using PMF and CMB in three sites nearby an industrial area in central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesari, Daniela; Donateo, Antonio; Conte, Marianna; Contini, Daniele

    2016-12-01

    Receptor models (RMs), based on chemical composition of particulate matter (PM), such as Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), represent useful tools for determining the impact of PM sources to air quality. This information is useful, especially in areas influenced by anthropogenic activities, to plan mitigation strategies for environmental management. Recent inter-comparison of source apportionment (SA) results showed that one of the difficulties in the comparison of estimated source contributions is the compatibility of the sources, i.e. the chemical profiles of factor/sources used in receptor models. This suggests that SA based on integration of several RMs could give more stable and reliable solutions with respect to a single model. The aim of this work was to perform inter-comparison of PMF (using PMF3.0 and PMF5.0 codes) and CMB outputs, focusing on both source chemical profiles and estimates of source contributions. The dataset included 347 daily PM10 samples collected in three sites in central Italy located near industrial emissions. Samples were chemically analysed for the concentrations of 21 chemical species (NH4+, Ca2 +, Mg2 +, Na+, K+, Mg2 +, SO42 -, NO3-, Cl-, Si, Al, Ti, V, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Br, EC, and OC) used as input of RMs. The approach identified 9 factor/sources: marine, traffic, resuspended dust, biomass burning, secondary sulphate, secondary nitrate, crustal, coal combustion power plant and harbour-industrial. Results showed that the application of constraints in PMF5.0 improved interpretability of profiles and comparability of estimated source contributions with stoichiometric calculations. The inter-comparison of PMF and CMB gave significant differences for secondary nitrate, biomass burning, and harbour-industrial sources, due to non-compatibility of these source profiles that have local specificities. When these site-dependent specificities were taken into account, optimising the input source profiles of

  18. [Inter-comparison of WPS-TEOM-MOUDI and investigation on particle density].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jian; Zhou, Yang; Wang, Jin; Wang, Tao; Wang, Wen-xing

    2007-09-01

    Three aerosol samplers and analyzers were used to characterize aerosol size and mass at two sites downwind of Shanghai and Beijing urban center in summer 2005. Inter-comparison was performed for the mass concentration determined by WPS, TEOM and MOUDI. The data got from TEOM and WPS showed the correlation factor of 0.77 and 0.79. And strong correlation has been found during the hour when coarse mode particles were dominated (R = 0.91 and 0.84). Also, comparison between data from WPS and MOUDI showed good correlation in difference size ranges (R ranged from 0.76 to 0.92) except the minimum stage. The particle densities at the two sites were determined based on the observed real time PM2.5 mass concentration and particle mass distribution data, respectively. The density of particles in Shanghai site was found to be around 1.70 g x cm(-3) while the Beijing site had a value of 1.50 g x cm(-3).

  19. Ammonia fluxes in relation to cutting and fertilization of an intensively managed grassland derived from an inter-comparison of gradient measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Milford

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Quantification of ammonia (NH3 land-atmosphere exchange is required for atmospheric modelling and assessment of nitrogen deposition, yet flux measurement methods remain highly uncertain. To address this issue, a major inter-comparison of ammonia fluxes over intensively managed grassland was conducted during the GRAMINAE Integrated Experiment held in Braunschweig, Germany. In order to provide a robust dataset of ammonia exchange with the vegetation, four independent continuous flux gradient systems were operated. Three independently operated continuous wet denuders systems (AMANDA were compared with a Wet Effluent Diffusion Denuder (mini-WEDD system. Measurements were made at two distances from an adjacent livestock farm, allowing effects of advection to be quantified in a real landscape setting. Data treatment included filtering for instrument failure, disturbed wind sectors and unsuitable micrometeorological conditions, with corrections made for storage and advection errors.

    The inter-comparison demonstrated good agreement in measured ammonia concentrations and fluxes (relative standard error <20% for some periods, although the performance of the ammonia analyzers were variable, with much poorer agreement on particular days. However, by using four systems, the inter-comparison was able to provide a robust mean estimate of continuous ammonia fluxes through the experiment. The observed fluxes were: a small bi-directional fluxes prior to cutting (−64 to 42 ng NH3 m−2 s−1, b larger diurnally-varying emissions following cutting (−49 to 703 ng NH3 m−2 s−1 and c much larger emissions following fertilizer application (0 to 3820 ng NH3 m−2 s−1. The results are a salutary reminder of the uncertainty in unreplicated ammonia flux measurements, while the replication of the present study provides a uniquely robust dataset for

  20. Higher precision estimates of regional polar warming by ensemble regression of climate model projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bracegirdle, Thomas J. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Stephenson, David B. [University of Exeter, Mathematics Research Institute, Exeter (United Kingdom); NCAS-Climate, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-12-15

    This study presents projections of twenty-first century wintertime surface temperature changes over the high-latitude regions based on the third Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) multi-model ensemble. The state-dependence of the climate change response on the present day mean state is captured using a simple yet robust ensemble linear regression model. The ensemble regression approach gives different and more precise estimated mean responses compared to the ensemble mean approach. Over the Arctic in January, ensemble regression gives less warming than the ensemble mean along the boundary between sea ice and open ocean (sea ice edge). Most notably, the results show 3 C less warming over the Barents Sea ({proportional_to} 7 C compared to {proportional_to} 10 C). In addition, the ensemble regression method gives projections that are 30 % more precise over the Sea of Okhostk, Bering Sea and Labrador Sea. For the Antarctic in winter (July) the ensemble regression method gives 2 C more warming over the Southern Ocean close to the Greenwich Meridian ({proportional_to} 7 C compared to {proportional_to} 5 C). Projection uncertainty was almost half that of the ensemble mean uncertainty over the Southern Ocean between 30 W to 90 E and 30 % less over the northern Antarctic Peninsula. The ensemble regression model avoids the need for explicit ad hoc weighting of models and exploits the whole ensemble to objectively identify overly influential outlier models. Bootstrap resampling shows that maximum precision over the Southern Ocean can be obtained with ensembles having as few as only six climate models. (orig.)

  1. Validation and Inter-comparison of Satellite Rainfall Products over East Africa's Complex Topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinku, T.; Ceccato, P.; Grover-Kopec, E.; Connor, S. J.; Ropelewski, C. F.

    2006-05-01

    A relatively dense station network of about 140 stations over the highlands of Ethiopia is used to perform an extensive validation and inter-comparison of different semi-operational satellite rainfall products. The validation region is located over 5oN to 13oN, and 35oE to 40oE. It has a very complex topography with alternating valleys and mountain ranges that varies between a point at below sea level and a highest peak of about 4620 meters. The gauge data are obtained from the National Meteorological Services Agency of Ethiopia. The data used in the current research covers the period 1990 to 2004. Though the gage data has already gone through routine quality control by NMSA, it has been subjected to further quality control. The validation and inter-comparison exercise is performed for three groups of products. The first group has low spatial (2.5o) and temporal (monthly) resolutions. These include Global Precipitation Climatology (GPCP) estimates, NOAA-CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis (CMAP), and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) combined "TRMM and Other Sources" product (3B43). The later product has higher spatial resolution (0.25o), but has been remapped to 2.5o in order to compare it with the other products. The second group consists of products with high spatial (0.1o to 1o) and temporal (three-hourly to daily) resolutions. These products include NOAA-CPC African Rainfall Estimation Algorithm (CPC-RFE), GPCP One- Degree-Daily, and TRMM combined "TRMM and Other Satellites" product (3B42). These products are aggregated to a common one-degree and 10-daily total for comparison. The 10-day aggregation period is selected because it is the aggregation used in many operational early warning activities. The third category consists of a relatively new product (available starting from December 2002) from NOAA-CPC named CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH). CMORPH is available at three-hourly temporal resolution and 0.25o spatial resolution, and it

  2. Ceilometer-lidar inter-comparison: backscatter coefficient retrieval and signal-to-noise ratio determination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Heese

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The potential of a new generation of ceilometer instruments for aerosol monitoring has been studied in the Ceilometer-Lidar Inter- Comparison (CLIC study. The ceilometer is of type CHM15k from Jenoptik, Germany, which uses a solid state laser at the wavelength of 1064 nm and an avalanche photodiode for photon counting detection. The German Meteorological Service is in progress of setting up a ceilometer network for aerosol monitoring in Germany. The intercomparison study was performed to determine whether the ceilometers are capable to deliver quality assured particle backscatter coefficient profiles. For this, the derived ceilometer profiles were compared to simultaneously measured lidar profiles at the same wavelength. The lidar used for this intercomparison was IfTs multi-wavelengths Raman lidar PollyXT. During the EARLINET lidar intercomparison campaign EARLI 09 in Leipzig, Germany, a new type of the Jenoptik ceilometer, the CHM15k-X, took part. This new ceilometer has a new optical setup resulting in a complete overlap at 150 m. The derived particle backscatter profiles were compared to profiles derived from PollyXTs measurements, too. The elastic daytime particle backscatter profiles as well as the less noisy night-time Raman particle backscatter profiles compare well with the ceilometers profiles in atmospheric structures like aerosol layers or the boundary layer top height. The calibration of the ceilometer profiles by an independent measurement of the aerosol optical depth (AOD by a sun photometer is necessary to determine the correct magnitude of the particle backscatter coefficient profiles. A comprehensive signal-to-noise ratio study was carried out to characterize the ceilometers signal performance with increasing altitude.

  3. Inter-comparison of lidar and ceilometer retrievals for aerosol and Planetary Boundary Layer profiling over Athens, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tsaknakis

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an inter-comparison of two active remote sensors (lidar and ceilometer to determine the mixing layer height and structure of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL and to retrieve tropospheric aerosol vertical profiles over Athens, Greece. This inter-comparison was performed under various strongly different aerosol loads/types (urban air pollution, biomass burning and Saharan dust event, implementing two different lidar systems (one portable Raymetrics S.A. lidar system running at 355 nm and one multi-wavelength Raman lidar system running at 355 nm, 532 nm and 1064 nm and one CL31 Vaisala S.A. ceilometer (running at 910 nm. Spectral conversions of the ceilometer's data were performed using the Ångström exponent estimated by ultraviolet multi-filter radiometer (UV-MFR measurements. The inter-comparison was based on two parameters: the mixing layer height determined by the presence of the suspended aerosols and the attenuated backscatter coefficient. Additionally, radiosonde data were used to derive the PBL height. In general, a good agreement was found between the ceilometer and the lidar techniques in both inter-compared parameters in the height range from 500 m to 5000 m, while the limitations of each instrument are also examined.

  4. A Procedural Model for Process Improvement Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Kreimeyer, Matthias;Daniilidis, Charampos;Lindemann, Udo

    2017-01-01

    Process improvement projects are of a complex nature. It is therefore necessary to use experience and knowledge gained in previous projects when executing a new project. Yet, there are few pragmatic planning aids, and transferring the institutional knowledge from one project to the next is difficult. This paper proposes a procedural model that extends common models for project planning to enable staff on a process improvement project to adequately plan their projects, enabling them to documen...

  5. Catchment Models and Management Tools for diffuse Contaminants (Sediment, Phosphorus and Pesticides): DIFFUSE Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, Eva; Reaney, Simeon; Mellander, Per-Erik; Wade, Andrew; Collins, Adrian; Arheimer, Berit; Bruen, Michael

    2017-04-01

    -of-the-art methods and models that are most applicable to Irish conditions and management challenges. All styles of modelling considered useful for water resources management are relevant to this project and a balance of technical sophistication, data availability and operational practicalities is the ultimate goal. Achievement of this objective will be measured by comparing the performance of the new models developed in the project with models used in other countries. The models and tools developed in the course of the project will be evaluated by comparison with Irish catchment data and with other state-of-the-art models in a model-inter-comparison workshop which will be open to other models and the wider research community.

  6. Impact of evolving isoprene mechanisms on simulated formaldehyde: An inter-comparison supported by in situ observations from SENEX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvin, Margaret R.; Wolfe, Glenn M.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Canty, Timothy P.; Roberts, Sandra J.; Travis, Katherine R.; Aikin, Kenneth C.; de Gouw, Joost A.; Graus, Martin; Hanisco, Thomas F.; Holloway, John S.; Hübler, Gerhard; Kaiser, Jennifer; Keutsch, Frank N.; Peischl, Jeff; Pollack, Ilana B.; Roberts, James M.; Ryerson, Thomas B.; Veres, Patrick R.; Warneke, Carsten

    2017-09-01

    Isoprene oxidation schemes vary greatly among gas-phase chemical mechanisms, with potentially significant ramifications for air quality modeling and interpretation of satellite observations in biogenic-rich regions. In this study, in situ observations from the 2013 SENEX mission are combined with a constrained 0-D photochemical box model to evaluate isoprene chemistry among five commonly used gas-phase chemical mechanisms: CB05, CB6r2, MCMv3.2, MCMv3.3.1, and a recent version of GEOS-Chem. Mechanisms are evaluated and inter-compared with respect to formaldehyde (HCHO), a high-yield product of isoprene oxidation. Though underestimated by all considered mechanisms, observed HCHO mixing ratios are best reproduced by MCMv3.3.1 (normalized mean bias = -15%), followed by GEOS-Chem (-17%), MCMv3.2 (-25%), CB6r2 (-32%) and CB05 (-33%). Inter-comparison of HCHO production rates reveals that major restructuring of the isoprene oxidation scheme in the Carbon Bond mechanism increases HCHO production by only ∼5% in CB6r2 relative to CB05, while further refinement of the complex isoprene scheme in the Master Chemical Mechanism increases HCHO production by ∼16% in MCMv3.3.1 relative to MCMv3.2. The GEOS-Chem mechanism provides a good approximation of the explicit isoprene chemistry in MCMv3.3.1 and generally reproduces the magnitude and source distribution of HCHO production rates. We analytically derive improvements to the isoprene scheme in CB6r2 and incorporate these changes into a new mechanism called CB6r2-UMD, which is designed to preserve computational efficiency. The CB6r2-UMD mechanism mimics production of HCHO in MCMv3.3.1 and demonstrates good agreement with observed mixing ratios from SENEX (-14%). Improved simulation of HCHO also impacts modeled ozone: at ∼0.3 ppb NO, the ozone production rate increases ∼3% between CB6r2 and CB6r2-UMD, and rises another ∼4% when HCHO is constrained to match observations.

  7. Inter-Comparison of NPP/CrIS with AIRS and IASI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Han, Y.; Weng, F.; Goldberg, M.

    2012-12-01

    . Finally, the inter-comparisons between CrIS and AIRS will be further extended to the tropical scenes because Aqua and NPP have similar equator cross time.

  8. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The lack of a proper communication skills model for project management may ... done to identify the most important project management communication skills and applications of communication that effective project managers should possess.

  9. Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Holton, L

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one...

  10. Instrument inter-comparison of glyoxal, methyl glyoxal and NO2 under simulated atmospheric conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Thalman

    2014-08-01

    methyl glyoxal (0.58 R2 R2 2. For glyoxal and methyl glyoxal the slopes varied by less than 12% and 17% (both 3-sigma between inherently calibrated instruments (i.e., calibration from knowledge of the absorption cross-section. We find a larger variability among in situ techniques that employ external calibration sources (75% to 90%, 3-sigma, and/or techniques that employ offline analysis. Our inter-comparison reveal existing differences in reports about precision and detection limits in the literature, and enables comparison on a common basis by observing a common airmass. Finally, we evaluate the influence of interfering species (e.g., NO2, O3 and H2O of relevance in field and laboratory applications. Techniques now exist to conduct fast and accurate measurements of glyoxal at ambient concentrations, and methyl glyoxal under simulated conditions. However, techniques to measure methyl glyoxal at ambient concentrations remain a challenge, and would be desirable.

  11. Instrument inter-comparison of glyoxal, methyl glyoxal and NO2 under simulated atmospheric conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thalman, R.; Baeza-Romero, M. T.; Ball, S. M.; Borrás, E.; Daniels, M. J. S.; Goodall, I. C. A.; Henry, S. B.; Karl, T.; Keutsch, F. N.; Kim, S.; Mak, J.; Monks, P. S.; Muñoz, A.; Orlando, J.; Peppe, S.; Rickard, A. R.; Ródenas, M.; Sánchez, P.; Seco, R.; Su, L.; Tyndall, G.; Vázquez, M.; Vera, T.; Waxman, E.; Volkamer, R.

    2014-08-01

    glyoxal (0.58 < R2 < 0.68) than for glyoxal (0.79 < R2 < 0.99). The intercepts of correlations were insignificant for the most part; slopes varied by less than 5% for instruments that also measure NO2. For glyoxal and methyl glyoxal the slopes varied by less than 12% and 17% (both 3-sigma) between inherently calibrated instruments (i.e., calibration from knowledge of the absorption cross-section). We find a larger variability among in situ techniques that employ external calibration sources (75% to 90%, 3-sigma), and/or techniques that employ offline analysis. Our inter-comparison reveal existing differences in reports about precision and detection limits in the literature, and enables comparison on a common basis by observing a common airmass. Finally, we evaluate the influence of interfering species (e.g., NO2, O3 and H2O) of relevance in field and laboratory applications. Techniques now exist to conduct fast and accurate measurements of glyoxal at ambient concentrations, and methyl glyoxal under simulated conditions. However, techniques to measure methyl glyoxal at ambient concentrations remain a challenge, and would be desirable.

  12. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  13. Space market model development project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Peter C.

    1987-01-01

    The objectives of the research program, Space Market Model Development Project, (Phase 1) were: (1) to study the need for business information in the commercial development of space; and (2) to propose a design for an information system to meet the identified needs. Three simultaneous research strategies were used in proceeding toward this goal: (1) to describe the space business information which currently exists; (2) to survey government and business representatives on the information they would like to have; and (3) to investigate the feasibility of generating new economical information about the space industry.

  14. The InterFrost benchmark of Thermo-Hydraulic codes for cold regions hydrology - first inter-comparison results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenier, Christophe; Roux, Nicolas; Anbergen, Hauke; Collier, Nathaniel; Costard, Francois; Ferrry, Michel; Frampton, Andrew; Frederick, Jennifer; Holmen, Johan; Jost, Anne; Kokh, Samuel; Kurylyk, Barret; McKenzie, Jeffrey; Molson, John; Orgogozo, Laurent; Rivière, Agnès; Rühaak, Wolfram; Selroos, Jan-Olof; Therrien, René; Vidstrand, Patrik

    2015-04-01

    range from simpler, purely thermal cases (benchmark T1) to more complex, coupled 2D TH cases (benchmarks TH1, TH2, and TH3). Some experimental cases conducted in cold room complement the validation approach. A web site hosted by LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) is an interaction platform for the participants and hosts the test cases database at the following address: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/interfrost. The results of the first stage of the benchmark exercise will be presented. We will mainly focus on the inter-comparison of participant results for the coupled cases (TH1, TH2 & TH3). Further perspectives of the exercise will also be presented. Extensions to more complex physical conditions (e.g. unsaturated conditions and geometrical deformations) are contemplated. In addition, 1D vertical cases of interest to the Climate Modeling community will be proposed. Keywords: Permafrost; Numerical modeling; River-soil interaction; Arctic systems; soil freeze-thaw

  15. Projections of Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP5 Models over BIMSTEC Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Ragi, A. R.

    2014-12-01

    Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

  16. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-18

    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  17. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

  18. Inter-Comparison of Suomi NPP CrIS Radiances with AIRS and IASI toward Infrared Hyperspectral Benchmark Radiance Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Han, Y.; Chen, Y.; Jin, X.; Tremblay, D. A.

    2013-12-01

    Atmosphere at the same spectral regions from different satellites. We will directly compare CrIS with AIRS and IASI at orbital crossing points of satellites occurring at high latitudes, the so-called simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNO). The CrIS, AIRS, and IASI spectra will be processed at common grids and then the spectral differences will be computed. In addition, an accurate collocation algorithm has been developed to spatially match high spatial resolution measurements from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) within each CrIS, AIRS, and IASI Field of View (FOV). The collocated VIIRS radiances will be used as a transfer radiometer to further evaluate the difference among AIRS-VIIRS, IASI-VIIRS, and CrIS-VIIRS. Finally, the inter-comparisons between CrIS and AIRS will be further extended to the tropical scenes because Aqua and NPP have similar equator cross time.

  19. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  20. An inter-comparison of sediment classification methods based on multi-beam echo-sounder backscatter and sediment natural radioactivity data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snellen, Mirjam; Eleftherakis, Dimitrios; Amiri-Simkooei, Alireza; Koomans, Ronald L; Simons, Dick G

    2013-08-01

    This contribution presents sediment classification results derived from different sources of data collected at the Dordtse Kil river, the Netherlands. The first source is a multi-beam echo-sounder (MBES). The second source is measurements taken with a gamma-ray scintillation detector, i.e., the Multi-Element Detection System for Underwater Sediment Activity (Medusa), towed over the sediments and measuring sediment natural radioactivity. Two analysis methods are employed for sediment classification based on the MBES data. The first is a Bayesian estimation method that uses the average backscatter data per beam and, therefore, is independent of the quality of the MBES calibration. The second is a model-based method that matches the measured backscatter curves to theoretical curves, predicted by a physics-based model. Medusa provides estimates for the concentrations of potassium, uranium, thorium, and cesium, known to be indicative for sediment properties, viz. mean grain size, silt content, and the presence of organic matter. In addition, a hydrophone attached to the Medusa system provides information regarding the sediment roughness. This paper presents an inter-comparison between the sediment classification results using the above-mentioned methods. It is shown that although originating from completely different sources, the MBES and Medusa provide similar information, revealing the same sediment distribution.

  1. Inter-comparison studies between high-resolution HYCOM simulation and observational data: The South Atlantic and the Agulhas leakage system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, P.; Campos, E. J. D.; Giddy, I.; Santis, W.

    2016-07-01

    Statistical analyses and model-data inter-comparisons are performed to evaluate the model's ability to reproduce the dynamics in the upper layers (tropical Atlantic. Furthermore, sensitive change until 2007 is clear in the vertical structure, at 4°N-38°W; 0°-35°W and 10°S-10°W, suggesting an important change in the stratification. The primary results concern a significant change in the decadal anomalies of the temperatures and salinity, which exhibit a warmer and saltier water in the southeastern Atlantic. Furthermore, linear trends found in the transport time-series in the North Brazil Current, and the South Equatorial Current were seen to correspond with increasing trends of the warmer water from the Agulhas Current into South Atlantic. The integrated transport during the period 1960-2010, shows an increase in westward changes in the large-scale circulation south of Africa are show in the negative trends indicate a widening of the "Agulhas gap" and increase in westward volume transport since 1980. It is therefore suggested that variability in the Agulhas System on the last two decades is affecting the dynamic in the South Atlantic, namely the temperature and the volume transport, reach the tropical region of the Atlantic.

  2. ENES the European Network for Earth System modelling and its infrastructure projects IS-ENES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmo, Francesca; Joussaume, Sylvie; Parinet, Marie

    2016-04-01

    The scientific community working on climate modelling is organized within the European Network for Earth System modelling (ENES). In the past decade, several European university departments, research centres, meteorological services, computer centres, and industrial partners engaged in the creation of ENES with the purpose of working together and cooperating towards the further development of the network, by signing a Memorandum of Understanding. As of 2015, the consortium counts 47 partners. The climate modelling community, and thus ENES, faces challenges which are both science-driven, i.e. analysing of the full complexity of the Earth System to improve our understanding and prediction of climate changes, and have multi-faceted societal implications, as a better representation of climate change on regional scales leads to improved understanding and prediction of impacts and to the development and provision of climate services. ENES, promoting and endorsing projects and initiatives, helps in developing and evaluating of state-of-the-art climate and Earth system models, facilitates model inter-comparison studies, encourages exchanges of software and model results, and fosters the use of high performance computing facilities dedicated to high-resolution multi-model experiments. ENES brings together public and private partners, integrates countries underrepresented in climate modelling studies, and reaches out to different user communities, thus enhancing European expertise and competitiveness. In this need of sophisticated models, world-class, high-performance computers, and state-of-the-art software solutions to make efficient use of models, data and hardware, a key role is played by the constitution and maintenance of a solid infrastructure, developing and providing services to the different user communities. ENES has investigated the infrastructural needs and has received funding from the EU FP7 program for the IS-ENES (InfraStructure for ENES) phase I and II

  3. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for projected changes of climate in the Indus River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Buda; Huang, Jinlong; Gemmer, Marco; Jian, Dongnan; Tao, Hui; Jiang, Tong; Zhao, Chengyi

    2016-09-01

    The simulation results of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5) multi-model ensemble in the Indus River Basin (IRB) are compared with the CRU (Climatic Research Unit) and APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) datasets. The systematic bias between simulations and observations is corrected by applying the equidistant Cumulative Distribution Functions matching method (EDCDFm) and high-resolution simulations are statistically downscaled. Then precipitation and temperature are projected for the IRB for the mid-21st century (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100). The results show that the CMIP5 ensemble captures the dominant features of annual and monthly mean temperature and precipitation in the IRB. Based on the downscaling results, it is projected that the annual mean temperature will increase over the entire basin, relative to the 1986-2005 reference period, with greatest changes in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Heat waves are more likely to occur. An increase in summer temperature is projected, particularly for regions of higher altitudes in the UIB. The persistent increase of summer temperature might accelerate the melting of glaciers, and has negative impact on the local freshwater availability. Projections under all RCP scenarios show an increase in monsoon precipitation, which will increase the possibility of flood disaster. A decreasing trend in winter and spring precipitation in the IRB is projected except for the RCP2.6 scenario which will cause a lower contribution of winter and spring precipitation to water resources in the mid and high altitude areas of the IRB.

  4. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  5. Uncertainties and time of emergence of multi-model precipitation projection over homogeneous rainfall zones of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhter, Javed; Das, Lalu; Meher, Jitendra Kumar; Deb, Argha

    2017-08-01

    Present study has assessed different sources of uncertainties in multi-model precipitation projection using Global Climate Models (GCMs) from coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) experiment over seven homogeneous rainfall zones of India namely North Mountainous India (NMI), Northwest India (NWI), North Central India (NCI), Northeast India (NEI), West Peninsular India (WPI), East Peninsular India (EPI), and South Peninsular India (SPI). A relatively new method has been employed to separate out internal variability and climate change signal from precipitation time series before quantifying the uncertainties. In our method, signal has been defined as dynamic trend instead of considering a fixed trend line. Three different types of weighting namely equal weighting, independence based weighting and performance based weighting have been employed to assess the uncertainties of GCM projection over different zones. It has been found that ensemble with performance based weighting has produced smaller inter-model uncertainty but the patterns of temporal evolution of uncertainties have been quite irregular compared to other two ensembles. On the other hand, it has been noticed that bias correction using quantile mapping can effectively reduce the range of uncertainty in a systematic way. It has been observed that inter-model uncertainties over NEI has been relatively lower compared to other zones indicating more robust projection over this zone. A dynamic threshold on signal-to-internal variability ratio (S/I) has been used for estimating time of emergence (TOE) at 95% confidence level over each zone. TOE would be earlier in case of NEI and late in NMI. However no zone may experience TOE in first half of the present century.

  6. The Canvas model in project formulation

    OpenAIRE

    Ferreira-Herrera, Diana Carolina

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this article is to determine the relevance of the Canvas methodology in project formulation through model characterization, thus answering the question: Is the Canvas methodology a relevant model for project management in an entrepreneurial context? Description: The Canvas model seeks to manage projects as business units. It is a model intended for emphasizing the entrepreneurial potential in project management. For this, texts and articles that have provided the basis for...

  7. A simplified model of software project dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Ruiz Carreira, Mercedes; Ramos Román, Isabel; Toro Bonilla, Miguel

    2001-01-01

    The simulation of a dynamic model for software development projects (hereinafter SDPs) helps to investigate the impact of a technological change, of different management policies, and of maturity level of organisations over the whole project. In the beginning of the 1990s, with the appearance of the dynamic model for SDPs by Abdel-Hamid and Madnick [Software Project Dynamics: An Integrated Approach, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1991], a significant advance took place in the field of p...

  8. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  9. The sequential propensity household projection model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Wilson

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the 'propensity model', a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it possesses a number of serious shortcomings, including internal inconsistencies, difficulties in setting living arrangement assumptions, and very limited scenario creation capabilities. Data allowing the application of more sophisticated dynamic household projection models are unavailable in Australia. OBJECTIVE The aim was create a projection model to overcome these shortcomings whilst minimising input data requirements and costs, and retaining the projection outputs users are familiar with. METHODS The sequential propensity household projection model is proposed. Living arrangement projections take place in a sequence of calculations, with progressively more detailed living arrangement categories calculated in each step. In doing so the model largely overcomes the three serious deficiencies of the standard propensity model noted above. RESULTS The model is illustrated by three scenarios produced for one case study State, Queensland. They are: a baseline scenario in which all propensities are held constant to demonstrate the effects of population growth and ageing, a housing crisis scenario where housing affordability declines, and a prosperity scenario where families and individuals enjoy greater real incomes. A sensitivity analysis in which assumptions are varied one by one is also presented. CONCLUSIONS The sequential propensity model offers a more effective method of producing household and living arrangement projections than the standard propensity model, and is a practical alternative to dynamic projection models for countries and regions where the data and resources to apply such models are unavailable.

  10. Aircraft measurements of aerosol properties during GoAmazon - G1 and HALO inter-comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, F.; Cecchini, M. A.; Wang, J.; Tomlinson, J. M.; Comstock, J. M.; Hubbe, J. M.; Pekour, M. S.; Machado, L.; Wendisch, M.; Longo, K.; Martin, S. T.; Schmid, B.; Weinzierl, B.; Krüger, M. L.; Zöger, M.

    2015-12-01

    Currently, the indirect effects of atmospheric aerosols remain the most uncertain components in forcing of climate change over the industrial period (IPCC, 2013). This large uncertainty is partially a result of our incomplete understanding of the ability of particles to form cloud droplets under atmospherically relevant supersaturations. One objective of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Green Ocean Amazon Project (GoAmazon2014/5) is to understand the influence of the emission from Manaus, a tropical megacity, on aerosol size, concentration, and chemical composition, and their impact on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectrum. The GoAmazon2014/5 study was an international campaign with the collaboration efforts from US, Brazil and Germany. During the intensive operation period, in the dry season (Sep. 1st - Oct. 10th, 2014), aerosol concentration, size distributions, and CCN spectra, both under pristine conditions and inside the Manaus plume, were characterized in-situ from the DOE Gulfstream-1 (G-1) research aircraft and German HALO aircraft during 4 coordinated flights on Sep. 9th, Sep. 16th, Sep 21st and Oct. 1st, 2014. During those four flights, aerosol number concentrations and CCN concentrations at two supersaturations (0.25% and 0.5%) were measured by condensation particle counters (CPCs) and a DMT dual column CCN counter onboard both G-1 and HALO. Aerosol size distribution was also measured by a Fast Integrated Mobility Spectrometer (FIMS) aboard the G-1 and is compared with the size distribution from Ultra High Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer - Airborne (UHSAS-A, DMT), which were deployed both on the G-1 and the HALO. Good agreement between the aerosol properties measured from the two aircraft has been achieved. The vertical profiles of aerosol size distribution and CCN spectrum will be discussed.

  11. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  12. K3 projective models in scrolls

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsen, Trygve

    2004-01-01

    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  13. Inter-comparison of drought indicators derived from multiple precipitation datasets in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naumann, Gustavo; Dutra, Emanuel; Barbosa, Paulo; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik

    2013-04-01

    This study investigates the potential of implementing different drought indicators to improve drought monitoring capabilities at continental scale. Several global and continental datasets based on re-analysis, gridded observation, and remote sensing data were tested. At regional level the capabilities of each indicator and dataset on five regions on the African continent (Oum er-rbia, Blue Nile, Upper Niger, Limpopo and the Great Horn of Africa) were compared. The five precipitation datasets used were the ERA - Interim reanalysis (0.5°x0.5° resolution from 1979 to 2010), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite monthly rainfall product 3B43 (0.25°x0.25° resolution from 1998 to 2010), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded precipitation dataset V.5 (1°x1° resolution from 1901 to 2010), the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Global Monthly Merged Precipitation Analyses (2.5°x2.5° resolution from 1979 to 2010), and the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP, 2.5°x2.5° resolution from 1979 to 2010). The set of indicators proposed included Standardized Precipitation index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI), Standardized Run-off index (SRI), Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMA). A comparison of the annual cycle and monthly precipitation time series shows a general agreement in the timing of the peaks including the Great Horn of Africa where there are two rainy seasons. The main differences are observed thus in the ability to represent the magnitude of the wet seasons and extremes. Moreover, for the areas that are under drought, all the datasets agree with the certain time of onset and recovery but there are sometimes disagreements on the area affected. The agreement between datasets depends on the threshold selected to define the drought conditions. The comparison between SPI estimations suggest that the main sources of uncertainties (due by lack of ground information

  14. The estimation of absorbed dose rates for non-human biota : an extended inter-comparison.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batlle, J. V. I.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Beresford, N. A.; Copplestone, D.; Horyna, J.; Hosseini, A.; Johansen, M.; Kamboj, S.; Keum, D.-K.; Kurosawa, N.; Newsome, L.; Olyslaegers, G.; Vandenhove, H.; Ryufuku, S.; Lynch, S. V.; Wood, M. D.; Yu, C. (Environmental Science Division); (Westlakes Scientific Consulting Ltd.); (Inst. de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire); (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology); (Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority); (State Office for Nuclear Safety); (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute); (Visible Information Centre Inc.); (Belgian Nuclear Research Centre); (University of Liverpool)

    2011-05-01

    An exercise to compare 10 approaches for the calculation of unweighted whole-body absorbed dose rates was conducted for 74 radionuclides and five of the ICRP's Reference Animals and Plants, or RAPs (duck, frog, flatfish egg, rat and elongated earthworm), selected for this exercise to cover a range of body sizes, dimensions and exposure scenarios. Results were analysed using a non-parametric method requiring no specific hypotheses about the statistical distribution of data. The obtained unweighted absorbed dose rates for internal exposure compare well between the different approaches, with 70% of the results falling within a range of variation of {+-}20%. The variation is greater for external exposure, although 90% of the estimates are within an order of magnitude of one another. There are some discernible patterns where specific models over- or under-predicted. These are explained based on the methodological differences including number of daughter products included in the calculation of dose rate for a parent nuclide; source-target geometry; databases for discrete energy and yield of radionuclides; rounding errors in integration algorithms; and intrinsic differences in calculation methods. For certain radionuclides, these factors combine to generate systematic variations between approaches. Overall, the technique chosen to interpret the data enabled methodological differences in dosimetry calculations to be quantified and compared, allowing the identification of common issues between different approaches and providing greater assurance on the fundamental dose conversion coefficient approaches used in available models for assessing radiological effects to biota.

  15. Multi-model projection of July-August climate extreme changes over China under CO2 doubling. Part I: Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongmei; Feng, Lei; Zhou, Tianjun

    2011-03-01

    Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July-August over China in response to CO2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models' performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ˜50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ˜2-3 times larger than that over the other areas. Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the 1pctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China, which follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.

  16. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects......The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...

  17. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  18. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...... are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues...

  19. Developing Project Duration Models in Software Engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pierre Bourque; Serge Oligny; Alain Abran; Bertrand Fournier

    2007-01-01

    Based on the empirical analysis of data contained in the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group(ISBSG) repository, this paper presents software engineering project duration models based on project effort. Duration models are built for the entire dataset and for subsets of projects developed for personal computer, mid-range and mainframeplatforms. Duration models are also constructed for projects requiring fewer than 400 person-hours of effort and for projectsre quiring more than 400 person-hours of effort. The usefulness of adding the maximum number of assigned resources as asecond independent variable to explain duration is also analyzed. The opportunity to build duration models directly fromproject functional size in function points is investigated as well.

  20. Custom map projections for regional groundwater models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuniansky, Eve L.

    2017-01-01

    For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

  1. Inter-Comparison of In-Situ Sensors for Land Surface Temperature Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, P.; Kochendorfer, J.; Meyers, T. P.; Guillevic, P. C.; Hook, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable in the determination of land surface processes from local to global scales. It has been identified as one of the most important environmental data records and is widely used in meteorological, climatological, hydrological, ecological, biophysical, and biochemical studies. Despite its importance, accurate in-situ measurements of LST are not yet available for the whole globe and are not routinely conducted at weather stations along with standard meteorological observations, with few exceptions including NOAA's United States Climate Reference Network. Even though satellite radiometric measurements of LST are a powerful tool, there are still large uncertainties associated with the retrieval of remotely sensed LST measurements. To improve confidence in the methods, algorithms, and parameters used to derive remotely sensed LST, validation of satellite data using high-quality ground-based measurements is required. With the objective of improving the quality of in situ measurements of LST and to evaluate the quantitative uncertainties in the ground-based measurements, intensive experiments were conducted at NOAA/ATDD in Oak ridge, TN from September 2013 to 2014. During the study period, multiple measurements of land surface skin temperature were made using infra-red temperature sensors - including the JPL radiometer, two models of Apogee infrared radiometers, and thermocouples embedded in the ground surface. In addition, aspirated air temperature and four-band net radiation measurements were also made. Overall the in situ LST measurements from the different sensors were in good agreement with each other, with a correlation coefficient of ~1 and root mean square error of <1 oC.

  2. Inter-comparison of glyoxal retrievals from MAX-DOAS during the MAD-CAT campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Ivan; Wagner, Thomas; Lampel, Johannes; van Roozendael, Michel; Richter, Andreas; Sinha, Vinayak; Xie, Pinhua; Volkamer, Rainer

    2015-04-01

    Over the past few years the smallest α-dicarbonyl compound glyoxal (CHOCHO) has received attention in order to inform relevant atmospheric chemistry processes such as oxidative capacity and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. A method to detect glyoxal in the atmosphere is through the Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) applied to solar scattered light passive remote sensing measurements on different platforms, including ground based, aircrafts, and satellites. Although these measurements are often described still many questions about DOAS fitting parameters need to be investigated. We present results from a comprehensive Multi-AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) comparison effort during the Multi Axis DOAS-Comparison campaign for Aerosols and Trace gases (MAD-CAT) held at the Max Planck institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany with an intensive operation period from June to August 2013. We evaluate the comparison for glyoxal differential Slant Column Densities (dSCD) from 6 different research groups during the MAD-CAT campaign. The data analysis is performed following three retrieval common settings. In general, good agreement between different groups is found, especially for days with low cloud coverage. Based on the diurnal variability of the glyoxal-to-formaldehyde ratio we identified that Mainz is influenced mostly by anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (AVOC) emission type. Also, for most of the days glyoxal was often clearly above the respective detection limits. We will present results of sensitivity studies in order to know influence of the wavelength window, dependence of the NO2 air mass factor, cross correlation with H2O, among others. Finally, synthetic spectra created with the SCIATRAN radiative transfer model using measurement related inputs are analysed and first results are presented.

  3. EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Arustamov

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.

  4. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The program focuses on turbulence modeling enhancements for predicting high-speed rocket base flows. A key component of the effort is the collection of high-fidelity...

  5. Marshal: Maintaining Evolving Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SIFT proposes to design and develop the Marshal system, a mixed-initiative tool for maintaining task models over the course of evolving missions. Marshal-enabled...

  6. Advanced Spacecraft Thermal Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — For spacecraft developers who spend millions to billions of dollars per unit and require 3 to 7 years to deploy, the LoadPath reduced-order (RO) modeling thermal...

  7. Base Flow Model Validation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...

  8. Multi-Model Projection of July-August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part II: Temperature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongmei; FENG Lei; ZHOU Tianjun

    2011-01-01

    This is the second part of the authors' analysis on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (lpctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). The study focuses on the potential changes of July-August temperature extremes over China. The pattern correlation coefficients of the simulated temperature with the observations are 0.6-0.9, which are higher than the results for precipitation. However, most models have cold bias compared to observation, with a larger cold bias over western China (>5℃) than over eastern China (<2℃). The multi-model ensemble (MME)exhibits a significant increase of temperature under the lpctto2x scenario. The amplitude of the MME warming shows a northwest-southeast decreasing gradient. The warming spread among the models (~1℃-2℃) is less than MME warming (~2℃-4℃), indicating a relativelyrobust temperature change under CO2doubling. Further analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1(GFDL-CM2.1) simulations suggests that the warming pattern may be related to heat transport by summer monsoons. The contrast of cloud effects also has contributions. The different vertical structures of warming over northwestern China and southeastern China may be attributed to the different natures of vertical circulations. The deep, moist convection over southeastern China is an effective mechanism for "transporting"the warming upward, leading to more upper-level warming. In northwestern China, the warming is more surface-orientated, possibly due to the shallow, dry convection.

  9. Airborne observation of aerosol optical depth during ARCTAS: vertical profiles, inter-comparison and fine-mode fraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Shinozuka

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available We describe aerosol optical depth (AOD measured during the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS experiment, focusing on vertical profiles, inter-comparison with correlative observations and fine-mode fraction. Arctic haze observed in <2 km and 2–4 km over Alaska in April 2008 originated mainly from anthropogenic emission and biomass burning, respectively, according to aerosol mass spectrometry and black carbon incandescence measurements. The Ångström exponent for these air masses is 1.4 ± 0.3 and 1.7 ± 0.1, respectively, when derived at 499 nm from a second-order polynomial fit to the AOD spectra measured with the 14-channel Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-14 over 354–2139 nm. We examine 55 vertical profiles selected from all phases of the experiment. For two thirds of them, the AOD spectra are within 3% + 0.02 of the vertical integral of local visible-light scattering and absorption. The horizontal structure of smoke plumes from local biomass burning observed in central Canada in June and July 2008 explains most outliers. The differences in mid-visible Ångström exponent are <0.10 for 63% of the profiles with 499-nm AOD > 0.1. The retrieved fine-mode fraction of AOD is mostly between 0.7 and 1.0, and its root mean square difference (in both directions from column-integral submicron fraction (measured with nephelometers, absorption photometers and an impactor is 0.12. These AOD measurements from the NASA P-3 aircraft, after compensation for below-aircraft light attenuation by vertical extrapolation, mostly fall within ±0.02 of AERONET ground-based measurements between 340–1640 nm for five overpass events.

  10. Short-term Dispersal of Fukushima-derived Radionuclides off Japan: Modeling Efforts and Model-data Inter-comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rypina, I. I.; Jayne, S. R.; Yoshida, S.; Macdonald, A. M.; Douglass, E.; Buesseler, K.

    2012-12-01

    As a result of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011, the Fukushima nuclear power plants were damaged and radioactive isotopes were released to the atmosphere and into the ocean. In order to assess the levels of contamination, a field study was conducted on June 4-18 that focused on measuring radionuclide isotopes including Cs-137 in surface and subsurface waters and biota off Japan coast. To interpret these field measurements, we carried out numerical simulations of the short-term spreading of the Fukushima-derived radionuclides. The results are used to investigate the dominant mechanisms governing the short-term spread of radiation within the North Pacific, and to place the measured radioactive isotope concentrations in the context of the physical oceanographic circulation.

  11. Model county ordinance for wind projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

  12. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... investment costs, with a quantitative risk analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation and to make use of a set of exploratory scenarios. The analysis is carried out by using the CBA-DK model representing the Danish standard approach to socio-economic cost-benefit analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario...

  13. Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo; Booth, Ben; Duan, Qingyun; Forest, Chris; Higdon, Dave; Hou, Z. Jason; Huerta, Gabriel

    2016-05-01

    The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for

  14. POMP - Pervasive Object Model Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    applications, we consider it essential that a standard object-oriented style of programming can be used for those parts of the application that do not concern its mobility. This position paper describes an ongoing effort to implement a language and a virtual machine for applications that execute in a pervasive...... mobility. Mobile agent platforms are often based on such virtual machines, but typically do not provide strong mobility (the ability to migrate at any program point), and have limited support for multi-threaded applications, although there are exceptions. For a virtual machine to support mobile...... computing environment. This system, named POM (Pervasive Object Model), supports applications split into coarse-grained, strongly mobile units that communicate using method invocations through proxies. We are currently investigating efficient execution of mobile applications, scalability to suit...

  15. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

  16. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  17. Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model intercomparison project (WETCHIMP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Melton

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4. Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP investigated our present ability to simulate large scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2 forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely-sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two.

    Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40 % of the all model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1. Second, all

  18. PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munapo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  19. Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, K. J.

    1997-05-30

    This report presents results of the Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation (UZFMEE) project at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The objective of this project was to identify and assess the uncertainties associated with certain key components of the unsaturated zone flow system at Yucca Mountain. This assessment reviewed the data inputs, modeling approaches, and results of the unsaturated zone flow model (termed the ''UZ site-scale model'') being developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the US Geological Survey (USGS). In addition to data input and modeling issues, the assessment focused on percolation flux (volumetric flow rate per unit cross-sectional area) at the potential repository horizon. An understanding of unsaturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the unsaturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent physical controls on unsaturated zone flow and the parameter values used in the models. To ensure that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and uncertainties about key issues regarding the unsaturated zone at the Yucca

  20. Airborne observation of aerosol optical depth during ARCTAS: vertical profiles, inter-comparison, fine-mode fraction and horizontal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Shinozuka

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We describe aerosol optical depth (AOD measured during the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS experiment, conducted in North America in April and June–July 2008, focusing on vertical profiles, inter-comparison with correlative observations, fine-mode fraction and horizontal variability. The AOD spectra spanning 354–2139 nm measured with the 14-channel Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-14 are generally less wavelength-dependent below 2 km (499-nm Angstrom exponent 1.4 ± 0.3 than in 2–4 km (1.6–1.8 for Alaska in April 2008. Together with concurrent aerosol mass spectrometry and black carbon incandescence measurements, this corroborates the hypothesis that Arctic haze in these layers originates mainly from anthropogenic emission and biomass burning, respectively. The spectra are within 3%+0.02 of the vertical integral of local visible-light scattering and absorption for two thirds of the 55 vertical profiles examined. The horizontal structure of smoke plumes in central Canada in June and July 2008 explains most outliers. The differences in mid-visible Angstrom exponent are <0.10 for 63% of the profiles with 499-nm AOD>0.1. The retrieved fine-mode fraction of AOD is mostly between 0.7 and 1.0, and its root mean square difference from column-integral submicron fraction (measured with nephelometers, absorption photometers and an impactor is 0.12. These AOD measurements from the NASA P-3 aircraft, after compensation for below-aircraft light attenuation by vertical extrapolation, mostly fall within 0.02 of AERONET ground-based measurements for five overpass events. Evidently, the fresh local emission in Canada in June and July makes the horizontal distribution of AOD highly heterogeneous (standard deviation ~19% of the mean over 20 km and random (autocorrelation r=0.37 across 20 km, in contrast to long-range transport to Alaska in April (std~2%, r=0.95. The

  1. Stabilizing a Bicycle: A Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennings, Timothy J.; Williams, Blair R.

    2010-01-01

    This article is a project that takes students through the process of forming a mathematical model of bicycle dynamics. Beginning with basic ideas from Newtonian mechanics (forces and torques), students use techniques from calculus and differential equations to develop the equations of rotational motion for a bicycle-rider system as it tips from…

  2. Project management system model development and experimental research

    OpenAIRE

    Golubeva, Viktorija

    2006-01-01

    Project management is the application of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to project activities to meet project requirements. Project Management Information System is tightly connected with organizational structure and particularity of executed projects. However the main objective of this research was to identify project management model that would be universal, helpful and easily used with small and medium projects In analysis phase we reviewed different methodologies, project ...

  3. Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

    2017-04-01

    The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

  4. Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Congbin; Wang, Shuyu; Xiong, Zhe; Gutowski, William J.; Lee, Dong-Kyou; McGregor, John L.; Sato, Yasuo; Kato, Hisashi; Kim, Jeong-Woo; Suh, Myoung-Seok

    2005-02-01

    Improving the simulation of regional climate change is one of the high-priority areas of climate study because regional information is needed for climate change impact assessments. Such information is especially important for the region covered by the East Asian monsoon where there is high variability in both space and time. To this end, the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (RMIP) for Asia has been established to evaluate and improve regional climate model (RCM) simulations of the monsoon climate. RMIP operates under joint support of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), the Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and several projects of participating nations. The project currently involves 10 research groups from Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, as well as scientists from India, Italy, Mongolia, North Korea, and Russia.RMIP has three simulation phases: March 1997-August 1998, which covers a full annual cycle and extremes in monsoon behavior; January 1989-December 1998, which examines simulated climatology; and a regional climate change scenario, involving nesting with a global model. This paper is a brief report of RMIP goals, implementation design, and some initial results from the first phase studies.

  5. Avoiding unintentional eviction from integral projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Jennifer L; Miller, Tom E X; Ellner, Stephen P

    2012-09-01

    Integral projection models (IPMs) are increasingly being applied to study size-structured populations. Here we call attention to a potential problem in their construction that can have important consequences for model results. IPMs are implemented using an approximating matrix and bounded size range. Individuals near the size limits can be unknowingly "evicted" from the model because their predicted future size is outside the range. We provide simple measures for the magnitude of eviction and the sensitivity of the population growth rate (lambda) to eviction, allowing modelers to assess the severity of the problem in their IPM. For IPMs of three plant species, we found that eviction occurred in all cases and caused underestimation of the population growth rate (lambda) relative to eviction-free models; it is likely that other models are similarly affected. Models with frequent eviction should be modified because eviction is only possible when size transitions are badly mis-specified. We offer several solutions to eviction problems, but we emphasize that the modeler must choose the most appropriate solution based on an understanding of why eviction occurs in the first place. We recommend testing IPMs for eviction problems and resolving them, so that population dynamics are modeled more accurately.

  6. Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Sims

    1988-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to briefly discus the current frontiers in quantitative modeling for forecastina and policy analvsis. It does so by summarizing some recent developmenrs in three areas: reduced form forecasting models; theoretical models including elements of stochastic optimization; and identification. In the process, the paper tries to provide some remarks on the direction we seem to be headed. Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models

  7. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Gil

    1999-01-01

    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  8. Development of integrated software project planning model

    OpenAIRE

    Manalif, Ekananta; Capretz, Luiz Fernando; Ho, Danny

    2012-01-01

    As the most uncertain and complex project when compared to other types of projects, software development project is highly depend on the result of software project planning phase that helping project managers by predicting the project demands with respect to the budgeting, scheduling, and the allocation of resources. The two main activities in software project planning are effort estimation and risk assessment which has to be executed together because the accuracy of the effort estimation is ...

  9. GCSS Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, David OC.; Benedetti, Angela; Boehm, Matt; Brown, Philip R. A.; Gierens, Klaus; Girard, Eric; Giraud, Vincent; Jakob, Christian; Jensen, Eric; Khvorostyanov, Vitaly; hide

    2000-01-01

    The GCSS Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2) is conducting a systematic comparison and evaluation of cirrus cloud models. This fundamental activity seeks to support the improvement of models used for climate simulation and numerical weather prediction through assessment and improvement of the "process" models underlying parametric treatments of cirrus cloud processes in large-scale models. The WG2 Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project is an initial comparison of cirrus cloud simulations by a variety of cloud models for a series of idealized situations with relatively simple initial conditions and forcing. The models (16) represent the state-of-the-art and include 3-dimensional large eddy simulation (LES) models, two-dimensional cloud resolving models (CRMs), and single column model (SCM) versions of GCMs. The model microphysical components are similarly varied, ranging from single-moment bulk (relative humidity) schemes to fully size-resolved (bin) treatments where ice crystal growth is explicitly calculated. Radiative processes are included in the physics package of each model. The baseline simulations include "warm" and "cold" cirrus cases where cloud top initially occurs at about -47C and -66C, respectively. All simulations are for nighttime conditions (no solar radiation) where the cloud is generated in an ice supersaturated layer, about 1 km in depth, with an ice pseudoadiabatic thermal stratification (neutral). Continuing cloud formation is forced via an imposed diabatic cooling representing a 3 cm/s uplift over a 4-hour time span followed by a 2-hour dissipation stage with no cooling. Variations of these baseline cases include no-radiation and stable-thermal-stratification cases. Preliminary results indicated the great importance of ice crystal fallout in determining even the gross cloud characteristics, such as average vertically-integrated ice water path (IWP). Significant inter-model differences were found. Ice water fall speed is directly

  10. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  11. Building information models for astronomy projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro

    2012-09-01

    A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

  12. Multi-model Projection of July-August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part Ⅰ:Precipitation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongmei; FENG Lei; ZHOU Tianjun

    2011-01-01

    Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July-August over China in response to CO2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (lpctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models' performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ~50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ~2-3 times larger than that over the other areas.Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the lpctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China,which follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.

  13. Systemic change increases model projection uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstegen, Judith; Karssenberg, Derek; van der Hilst, Floor; Faaij, André

    2014-05-01

    Most spatio-temporal models are based on the assumption that the relationship between system state change and its explanatory processes is stationary. This means that model structure and parameterization are usually kept constant over time, ignoring potential systemic changes in this relationship resulting from e.g., climatic or societal changes, thereby overlooking a source of uncertainty. We define systemic change as a change in the system indicated by a system state change that cannot be simulated using a constant model structure. We have developed a method to detect systemic change, using a Bayesian data assimilation technique, the particle filter. The particle filter was used to update the prior knowledge about the model structure. In contrast to the traditional particle filter approach (e.g., Verstegen et al., 2014), we apply the filter separately for each point in time for which observations are available, obtaining the optimal model structure for each of the time periods in between. This allows us to create a time series of the evolution of the model structure. The Runs test (Wald and Wolfowitz, 1940), a stationarity test, is used to check whether variation in this time series can be attributed to randomness or not. If not, this indicates systemic change. The uncertainty that the systemic change adds to the existing model projection uncertainty can be determined by comparing model outcomes of a model with a stationary model structure and a model with a model structure changing according to the variation found in the time series. To test the systemic change detection methodology, we apply it to a land use change cellular automaton (CA) (Verstegen et al., 2012) and use observations of real land use from all years from 2004 to 2012 and associated uncertainty as observational data in the particle filter. A systemic change was detected for the period 2006 to 2008. In this period the influence on the location of sugar cane expansion of the driver sugar cane in

  14. Reflex Project: Using Model-Data Fusion to Characterize Confidence in Analyzes and Forecasts of Terrestrial C Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, A. M.; Williams, M.; Richardson, A.; Cameron, D.; Gove, J. H.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Tomalleri, E.; Trudinger, C.; van Wijk, M.; Quaife, T.; Li, Z.

    2008-12-01

    The Regional Flux Estimation Experiment, REFLEX, is a model-data fusion inter-comparison project, aimed at comparing the strengths and weaknesses of various model-data fusion techniques for estimating carbon model parameters and predicting carbon fluxes and states. The key question addressed here is: what are the confidence intervals on (a) model parameters calibrated from eddy covariance (EC) and leaf area index (LAI) data and (b) on model analyses and predictions of net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) and carbon stocks? The experiment has an explicit focus on how different algorithms and protocols quantify the confidence intervals on parameter estimates and model forecasts, given the same model and data. Nine participants contributed results using Metropolis algorithms, Kalman filters and a genetic algorithm. Both observed daily NEE data from FluxNet sites and synthetic NEE data, generated by a model, were used to estimate the parameters and states of a simple C dynamics model. The results of the analyses supported the hypothesis that parameters linked to fast-response processes that mostly determine net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) were well constrained and well characterised. Parameters associated with turnover of wood and allocation to roots, only indirectly related to NEE, were poorly characterised. There was only weak agreement on estimations of uncertainty on NEE and its components, photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration, with some algorithms successfully locating the true values of these fluxes from synthetic experiments within relatively narrow 90% confidence intervals. This exercise has demonstrated that a range of techniques exist that can generate useful estimates of parameter probability density functions for C models from eddy covariance time series data. When these parameter PDFs are propagated to generate estimates of annual C fluxes there was a wide variation in size of the 90% confidence intervals. However, some algorithms were able to make

  15. A decision model for energy companies that sorts projects, classifies the project manager and recommends the final match between project and project manager

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Cristina Batista de Oliveira

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study presents an integrated model to support the process of classifying projects and selecting project managers for these projects in accordance with their characteristics and skills using a multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA approach. Such criteria are often conflicting. The model also supports the process of allocating project managers to projects by evaluating the characteristics/types of projects. The framework consists of a set of structured techniques and methods that are deemed very appropriate within the context of project management. A practical application of the proposed model was performed in a Brazilian electric energy company, which has a portfolio of projects that are specifically related to the company´s defined strategic plan. As a result, it was possible to classify the projects and project managers into definable categories, thus enabling more effective management as different projects require different levels of skills and abilities.

  16. Projections of Rainfall and Surface Temperature from CMIP5 Models under RCP4.5 and 8.5 over BIMSTEC Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charan Pattnayak, Kanhu; Kar, Sarat Chandra; Kumari Pattnayak, Rashmita

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

  17. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation

  18. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extr

  19. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  20. The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, S.; French, R.; Nall, M.; Muery, K.

    2010-01-01

    The Lunar Mapping and Modeling Project (LMMP) is managing the development of a suite of lunar mapping and modeling tools and data products that support lunar exploration activities, including the planning, design, development, test, and operations associated with crewed and/or robotic operations on the lunar surface. In addition, LMMP should prove to be a convenient and useful tool for scientific analysis and for education and public outreach (E/PO) activities. LMMP will utilize data predominately from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, but also historical and international lunar mission data (e.g. Lunar Prospector, Clementine, Apollo, Lunar Orbiter, Kaguya, and Chandrayaan-1) as available and appropriate. LMMP will provide such products as image mosaics, DEMs, hazard assessment maps, temperature maps, lighting maps and models, gravity models, and resource maps. We are working closely with the LRO team to prevent duplication of efforts and ensure the highest quality data products. A beta version of the LMMP software was released for limited distribution in December 2009, with the public release of version 1 expected in the Fall of 2010.

  1. Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne

    2012-01-01

    This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

  2. Pataha Creek Model Watershed : 1998 Habitat Conservation Projects.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartels, Duane G.

    1999-12-01

    The projects outlined in detail on the attached project reports are a few of the many projects implemented in the Pataha Creek Model Watershed since it was selected as a model in 1993. 1998 was a year where a focused effort was made to work on the upland conservation practices to reduce the sedimentation into Pataha Creek.

  3. Evaluating CMIP5 models using GPS radio occultation COSMIC temperature in UTLS region during 2006-2013: twenty-first century projection and trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishore, P.; Basha, Ghouse; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Narayana Rao, D.

    2016-11-01

    This paper provides a first overview of the performance of global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) temperatures. Temperature from CMIP5 models is evaluated with high resolution global positioning system radio occultation (GPSRO) constellation observing system for meteorology, ionosphere, and climate (COSMIC) data during the period of July 2006-December 2013. Future projections of 17 CMIP5 models based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios are utilized to assess model performance and to identify the biases in the temperature in the UTLS region at eight different pressure levels. The evaluations were carried out vertically, regionally, and globally to understand the temperature uncertainties in CMIP5 models. It is found that the CMIP5 models successfully reproduce the general features of temperature structure in terms of vertical, annual, and inter-annual variation. The ensemble mean of CMIP5 models compares well with the COSMIC GPSRO data with a mean difference of ±1 K. In the tropical region, temperature biases vary from one model to another. The spatial difference between COSMIC and ensemble mean reveals that at 100 hPa, the models show a bias of about ±2 K. With increase in altitude the bias decreases and turns into a cold bias over the tropical and Antarctic regions. The future projections of the CMIP5 models were presented during 2006-2099 under the RCP 8.5 scenarios. Projections show a warming trend at 300, 200, and 100 hPa levels over a wide region of 60°N-45°S. The warming decreases rapidly and becomes cooling with increase in altitudes by the end of twenty-first century. Significant cooling is observed at 30, 20, and 10 hPa levels. At 300/10 hPa, the temperature trend increases/decreases by 0.82/0.88 K/decade at the end of twenty-first century under RCP 8.5 scenarios.

  4. Inter-comparison and evaluation of sea ice algorithms: towards further identification of challenges and optimal approach using passive microwave observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ivanova, N.; Pedersen, L. T.; Tonboe, R. T.;

    2015-01-01

    algorithm inter-comparison and evaluation experiment. The skills of 30 sea ice algorithms were evaluated systematically over low and high sea ice concentrations. Evaluation criteria included standard deviation relative to independent validation data, performance in the presence of thin ice and melt ponds......Sea ice concentration has been retrieved in polar regions with satellite microwave radiometers for over 30 years. However, the question remains as to what is an optimal sea ice concentration retrieval method for climate monitoring. This paper presents some of the key results of an extensive...... to retrieve sea ice concentration globally for climate monitoring purposes. This approach consists of a combination of two algorithms plus dynamic tie points implementation and atmospheric correction of input brightness temperatures. The method minimizes inter-sensor calibration discrepancies and sensitivity...

  5. The Digital Astronaut Project Bone Remodeling Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennline, James A.; Mulugeta, Lealem; Lewandowski, Beth E.; Thompson, William K.; Sibonga, Jean D.

    2014-01-01

    Under the conditions of microgravity, astronauts lose bone mass at a rate of 1% to 2% a month, particularly in the lower extremities such as the proximal femur: (1) The most commonly used countermeasure against bone loss has been prescribed exercise, (2) However, current exercise countermeasures do not completely eliminate bone loss in long duration, 4 to 6 months, spaceflight, (3,4) leaving the astronaut susceptible to early onset osteoporosis and a greater risk of fracture later in their lives. The introduction of the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device, coupled with improved nutrition, has further minimized the 4 to 6 month bone loss. But further work is needed to implement optimal exercise prescriptions, and (5) In this light, NASA's Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) is working with NASA physiologists to implement well-validated computational models that can help understand the mechanisms of bone demineralization in microgravity, and enhance exercise countermeasure development.

  6. Inter-comparison of the solar UVB, UVA and global radiation clearness and UV indices for Beer Sheva and Neve Zohar (Dead Sea), Israel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kudish, A.I. [Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva (Israel). Solar Energy Laboratory; Dead Sea Research Center, Neve Zohar (Israel); Lyubansky, V.; Ianetz, A. [Israel Meteorological Service, Bet Dagan (Israel). Research Development Div.; Evseev, E.G. [Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva (Israel). Solar Energy Laboratory

    2005-07-01

    An inter-comparison of the clearness indices for the solar UVB, UVA and global radiation for Beer Sheva and Neve Zohar (Dead Sea) are presented utilizing radiation data measured from January 1995 through December 2001 for which there is a one-to-one correspondence between the measurements, viz., any day for which a hourly value for one of the sites was missing is rejected and not included in the analysis for that particular radiation type. Beer Sheva is located ca. 65 km to the west and is approximately 700 m above Neve Zohar, which is located on the western shore of the Dead Sea. The Dead Sea is the lowest terrestrial point on the earth, approximately 400 m below mean sea level. The relative magnitudes of the global, UVB and UVA radiation intensities at the two sites can be attributed to the enhanced scattering at the Dead Sea due to the longer optical path length the solar radiation must traverse at the Dead Sea. The degree of attenuation due to scattering phenomena is inversely proportional to the wavelength raised to some power and, consequently, it is greatest for UVB and very small for global radiation. The UVB and UVA solar constants were determined from the extraterrestrial radiation values tabulated by Froehlich and Wehrli [Spectral distribution of solar irradiance from 25000 nm to 250nm, in: M. Iqbal, An introduction to solar radiation, Academic Press, New York, 1981, Appendix C, pp. 380-381]. The clearness indices for global and UVA radiation were of similar magnitude, whereas those for UVB radiation were of two orders of magnitude smaller. In addition, the monthly average hourly UV Index at both sites has also been determined and an inter-comparison of the values has been performed for all available hourly values from January 1995 through August 2002 for both sites. It is observed that the monthly average hourly UV Index values at the Dead Sea are never in the extreme range. (author)

  7. Projective Market Model Approach to AHP Decision-Making

    CERN Document Server

    Szczypinska, Anna

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we describe market in projective geometry language and give definition of a matrix of market rate, which is related to the matrix rate of return and the matrix of judgements in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We use these observations to extend the AHP model to projective geometry formalism and generalise it to intransitive case. We give financial interpretations of such generalised model in the Projective Model of Market (PMM) and propose its simplification. The unification of the AHP model and projective aspect of portfolio theory suggests a wide spectrum of new applications such extended model.

  8. Modelling land surface - atmosphere interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Søren Højmark

    related to inaccurate land surface modelling, e.g. enhanced warm bias in warm dry summer months. Coupling the regional climate model to a hydrological model shows the potential of improving the surface flux simulations in dry periods and the 2 m air temperature in general. In the dry periods......The study is investigates modelling of land surface – atmosphere interactions in context of fully coupled climatehydrological model. With a special focus of under what condition a fully coupled model system is needed. Regional climate model inter-comparison projects as ENSEMBLES have shown bias...... representation of groundwater in the hydrological model is found to important and this imply resolving the small river valleys. Because, the important shallow groundwater is found in the river valleys. If the model does not represent the shallow groundwater then the area mean surface flux calculation...

  9. Surface air temperature variability in global climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Davy, Richard

    2012-01-01

    New results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and multiple global reanalysis datasets are used to investigate the relationship between the mean and standard deviation in the surface air temperature. A combination of a land-sea mask and orographic filter were used to investigate the geographic region with the strongest correlation and in all cases this was found to be for low-lying over-land locations. This result is consistent with the expectation that differences in the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere are an important factor in determining the surface air temperature response to forcing.

  10. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  11. Modeling Uncertainty when Estimating IT Projects Costs

    OpenAIRE

    Winter, Michel; Mirbel, Isabelle; Crescenzo, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    In the current economic context, optimizing projects' cost is an obligation for a company to remain competitive in its market. Introducing statistical uncertainty in cost estimation is a good way to tackle the risk of going too far while minimizing the project budget: it allows the company to determine the best possible trade-off between estimated cost and acceptable risk. In this paper, we present new statistical estimators derived from the way IT companies estimate the projects' costs. In t...

  12. Dust in High Latitudes in the Community Earth System Model since the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albani, S.; Mahowald, N. M.

    2015-12-01

    Earth System Models are one of the main tools in modern climate research, and they provide the means to produce future climate projections. Modeling experiments of past climates is one of the pillars of the Coupled Modelling Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) / Paleoclimate Modelling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP) general strategy, aimed at understanding the climate sensitivity to varying forcings. Physical models are useful tools for studying dust transport patterns, as they allow representing the full dust cycle from sources to sinks with an internally consistent approach. Combining information from paleodust records and climate models in coherent studies can be a fruitful approach from different points of view. Based on a new quality-controlled, size- and temporally-resolved data compilation, we used the Community Earth System Model to estimate the mass balance of and variability in the global dust cycle since the Last Glacial Maximum and throughout the Holocene. We analyze the variability of the reconstructed global dust cycle at different climate equilibrium conditions since the LGM until the pre-industrial climate, and compare with palodust records, focusing on the high latitudes, and discuss the uncertainties and the implications for dust and iron deposition to the oceans.

  13. Downplaying model power in IT project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Anne; Buhl, Henrik

    2004-01-01

    Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue in the resea......Executives and information technology specialists often manage IT projects in project teams. Integrative IT systems provide opportunities to manage and restructure work functions, but the process of change often causes serious problems in implementation and diffusion. A central issue...... possible to put issues such as team functions and quality of work on the agenda. Simultaneously, participation competencies seem to have been enhanced....

  14. Dynamic Damage Modeling for IRAC Simulations Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA's Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project, Preliminary Technical Plan Summary identifies several causal and contributing factors that can lead to...

  15. Enterprise Projects Set Risk Element Transmission Chaotic Genetic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunbin Li

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In order to research projects set risk transfer process and improve risk management efficiency in projects management, combining chaos theory and genetic algorithm, put forward enterprise projects set risk element transmission chaos genetic model. Using logistic chaos mapping and chebyshev chaos mapping mixture, constructed a hybrid chaotic mapping system. The steps of adopting hybrid chaos mapping for genetic operation include projects set initialization, calculation of fitness, selection, crossover and mutation operators, fitness adjustment and condition judgment. The results showed that the model can simulate enterprise projects set risk transmission process very well and it also provides the basis for the enterprise managers to make decisions.

  16. SR 97. Alternative models project. Stochastic continuum modelling of Aberg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widen, H. [Kemakta AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Walker, D. [INTERA KB/DE and S (Sweden)

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modelling approaches to bedrock performance assessment for a single hypothetical repository, arbitrarily named Aberg. The Aberg repository will adopt input parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The models are restricted to an explicit domain, boundary conditions and canister location to facilitate the comparison. The boundary conditions are based on the regional groundwater model provided in digital format. This study is the application of HYDRASTAR, a stochastic continuum groundwater flow and transport-modelling program. The study uses 34 realisations of 945 canister locations in the hypothetical repository to evaluate the uncertainty of the advective travel time, canister flux (Darcy velocity at a canister) and F-ratio. Several comparisons of variability are constructed between individual canister locations and individual realisations. For the ensemble of all realisations with all canister locations, the study found a median travel time of 27 years, a median canister flux of 7.1 x 10{sup -4} m/yr and a median F-ratio of 3.3 x 10{sup 5} yr/m. The overall pattern of regional flow is preserved in the site-scale model, as is reflected in flow paths and exit locations. The site-scale model slightly over-predicts the boundary fluxes from the single realisation of the regional model. The explicitly prescribed domain was seen to be slightly restrictive, with 6% of the stream tubes failing to exit the upper surface of the model. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are suggested as possible extensions of the modelling study.

  17. Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Y. Chau

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

  18. Inter-comparison of High Energy Files (neutron-induced, from 20 to 150 MeV)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Young-Ouk; Fukahori, Tokio [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    1998-11-01

    Recent new applications using accelerator-driven system require well-tested nuclear data when modeling the interaction of neutrons above 20 MeV. This work is aimed to review evaluation methods applied in currently available neutron high energy files above 20 to 150 MeV, to inter-compare their evaluated cross sections on some important isotopes, and to analyze resulting discrepancies. Through out these, integrities and consistencies of the high energy files are checked, applicability of physics models and evaluation methodologies are assessed, and some directions are derived to improve and expand current JENDL High Energy File. (author)

  19. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  20. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  1. Bayesian-based Project Monitoring: Framework Development and Model Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Hartono

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available During project implementation, risk becomes an integral part of project monitoring. Therefore. a tool that could dynamically include elements of risk in project progress monitoring is needed. This objective of this study is to develop a general framework that addresses such a concern. The developed framework consists of three interrelated major building blocks, namely: Risk Register (RR, Bayesian Network (BN, and Project Time Networks (PTN for dynamic project monitoring. RR is used to list and to categorize identified project risks. PTN is utilized for modeling the relationship between project activities. BN is used to reflect the interdependence among risk factors and to bridge RR and PTN. A residential development project is chosen as a working example and the result shows that the proposed framework has been successfully applied. The specific model of the development project is also successfully developed and is used to monitor the project progress. It is shown in this study that the proposed BN-based model provides superior performance in terms of forecast accuracy compared to the extant models.

  2. The inter-comparison of major satellite aerosol retrieval algorithms using simulated intensity and polarization characteristics of reflected light

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Kokhanovsky

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Remote sensing of aerosol from space is a challenging and typically underdetermined retrieval task, requiring many assumptions to be made with respect to the aerosol and surface models. Therefore, the quality of a priori information plays a central role in any retrieval process (apart from the cloud screening procedure and the forward radiative transfer model, which to be most accurate should include the treatment of light polarization and molecular-aerosol coupling. In this paper the performance of various algorithms with respect to the of spectral aerosol optical thickness determination from optical spaceborne measurements is studied. The algorithms are based on various types of measurements (spectral, angular, polarization, or some combination of these. It is confirmed that multiangular spectropolarimetric measurements provide more powerful constraints compared to spectral intensity measurements alone, particularly those acquired at a single view angle and which rely on a priori assumptions regarding the particle phase function in the retrieval process.

  3. Inter-Comparison of SMOS and Aquarius Sea Surface Salinity: Effects of the Dielectric Constant and Vicarious Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinnat, Emmanuel P.; Boutin, Jacqueline; Yin, Xiaobin; Le Vine, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Two spaceborne instruments share the scientific objective of mapping the global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS). ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASA's Aquarius use L-band (1.4 GHz) radiometry to retrieve SSS. We find that SSS retrieved by SMOS is generally lower than SSS retrieved by Aquarius, except for very cold waters where SMOS SSS is higher overall. The spatial distribution of the differences in SSS is similar to the distribution of sea surface temperature. There are several differences in the retrieval algorithm that could explain the observed SSS differences. We assess the impact of the dielectric constant model and the ancillary sea surface salinity used by both missions for calibrating the radiometers and retrieving SSS. The differences in dielectric constant model produce differences in SSS of the order of 0.3 psu and exhibit a dependence on latitude and temperature. We use comparisons with the Argo in situ data to assess the performances of the model in various regions of the globe. Finally, the differences in the ancillary sea surface salinity products used to perform the vicarious calibration of both instruments are relatively small (0.1 psu), but not negligible considering the requirements for spaceborne remote sensing of SSS.

  4. BUSINESS PROCESS MODELLING FOR PROJECTS COSTS MANAGEMENT IN AN ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PĂTRAŞCU AURELIA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Using Information Technologies in organizations represents an evident progress for company, money economy, time economy and generates value for the organization. In this paper the author proposes to model the business processes for an organization that manages projects costs, because modelling is an important part of any software development process. Using software for projects costs management is essential because it allows the management of all operations according to the established parameters, the management of the projects groups, as well as the management of the projects and subprojects, at different complexity levels.

  5. Preliminary Inter-Comparison between AHI, VIIRS and MODIS Clear-Sky Ocean Radiances for Accurate SST Retrievals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingming Liang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Clear-sky brightness temperatures (BT in five bands of the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI; flown onboard Himawari-8 satellite centered at 3.9, 8.6, 10.4, 11.2, and 12.3 µm (denoted by IR37, IR86, IR10, IR11, and IR12, respectively are used in the NOAA Advanced Clear-Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO sea surface temperature (SST retrieval system. Here, AHI BTs are preliminarily evaluated for stability and consistency with the corresponding VIIRS and MODIS BTs, using the sensor observation minus model simulation (O-M biases and corresponding double differences. The objective is to ensure accurate and consistent SST products from the polar and geo sensors, and to prepare for the launch of the GOES-R satellite in 2016. All five AHI SST bands are found to be largely in-family with their polar counterparts, but biased low relative to the VIIRS and MODIS (which, in turn, were found to be stable and consistent, except for Terra IR86, which is biased high by 1.5 K. The negative biases are larger in IR37 and IR12 (up to ~−0.5 K, followed by the three remaining longwave IR bands IR86, IR10, and IR11 (from −0.3 to −0.4 K. These negative biases may be in part due to the uncertainties in AHI calibration and characterization, although uncertainties in the coefficients of the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM, used to generate the “M” term may also contribute. Work is underway to add AHI analyses in the NOAA Monitoring of IR Clear-Sky Radiances over Oceans for SST (MICROS system and improve AHI BTs by collaborating with the sensor calibration and CRTM teams. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI analyses will be also added in MICROS when GOES-R is launched in late 2016 and the ABI IR data become available.

  6. Validation of HEDR models. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid.

  7. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

    2011-11-15

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

  8. An inter-comparison of PM2.5 at urban and urban background sites: Chemical characterization and source apportionment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesari, D.; Donateo, A.; Conte, M.; Merico, E.; Giangreco, A.; Giangreco, F.; Contini, D.

    2016-06-01

    A measurement campaign was performed between 04/03/2013 and 17/07/2013 for simultaneous collection of PM2.5 samples in two nearby sites in southeastern Italy: an urban site and an urban background site. PM2.5 at the two sites were similar; however, the chemical composition and the contributions of the main sources were significantly different. The coefficients of divergence (CODs) showed spatial heterogeneity of EC (higher at the urban site because of traffic emissions) and of all metals. Major ions (NH4+, Na+, and SO42 -) and OC had low CODs, suggesting a homogeneous distribution of sea spray, secondary sulfate, and secondary organic matter (SOM = 1.6*OCsec, where OCsec is the secondary OC). The strong correlations between Na+ and Cl-, and the low Cl-/Na+ ratios, suggested the presence of aged sea spray with chloride depletion (about 79% of Cl-) and formation of sodium nitrate at both sites. In both sites, the non-sea-salt sulfate was about 97% of sulfate, and the strong correlation between SO42 - and NH4+ indicated that ammonium was present as ammonium sulfate. However, during advection of Saharan Dust, calcium sulfate was present rather than ammonium sulfate. The source apportionment was performed using the Positive Matrix Factorization comparing outputs of model EPA PMF 3.0 and 5.0 version. Six aerosol sources were identified at both sites: traffic, biomass burning, crustal-resuspended dust, secondary nitrate, marine aerosol, and secondary sulfate. The PMF3.0 model was not completely able, in these sites, to separate marine contribution from secondary nitrate and secondary sulfate from OC, underestimating the marine contribution and overestimating the secondary sulfate with respect to stoichiometric calculations. The application of specific constraints on PMF5.0 provided cleaner profiles, improving the comparison with stoichiometric calculations. The seasonal trends revealed larger biomass burning contributions during the cold period at both sites due to

  9. Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequently...

  10. Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    CONTACT Point of Contact Organization Phone E-Mail Role In Project John Sullivan Autodesk, Inc. 111 McInnis Parkway San Rafael, CA 94903...McInnis Parkway San Rafael, CA 94903 Phone: 703-827-7213 E-Mail: john.rittling@autodesk.com Collaborator Mark Frost Autodesk, Inc. 111 McInnis

  11. Inter-comparison exercises on dissolved gases for groundwater dating (GDAT 2012) : analytical uncertainties, apparent ages and other derived parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labasque, Thierry; Aquilina, Luc; Visser, Ate; Vergnaud, Virginie

    2014-05-01

    distinguish the appropriate excess air model if the measured helium concentration is not included. While the analytical uncertainty introduces an unavoidable source of uncertainty in the 3H/3He apparent age estimate, other sources of uncertainty are often much greater and less well defined than the analytical uncertainty.

  12. Community-based Services that Facilitate Interoperability and Inter-comparison Between Precipitation Data Sets from Multiple Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Kempler, S. J.; Teng, W. L.; Leptoukh, G. G.; Ostrenga, D.

    2010-12-01

    Over the past 12 years, large volumes of precipitation data have been generated from space-based observatories (e.g., TRMM), merging of data products (e.g., gridded 3B42), models (e.g., GMAO), climatologies (e.g., Chang SSM/I derived rain indices), field campaigns, and ground-based measuring stations. The science research, applications, and education communities have greatly benefited from the unrestricted availability of these data from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and, in particular, the services tailored toward precipitation data access and usability. In addition, tools and services that are responsive to the expressed evolving needs of the precipitation data user communities have been developed at the Precipitation Data and Information Services Center (PDISC) (http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/precipitation or google NASA PDISC), located at the GES DISC, to provide users with quick data exploration and access capabilities. In recent years, data management and access services have become increasingly sophisticated, such that they now afford researchers, particularly those interested in multi-data set science analysis and/or data validation, the ability to homogenize data sets, in order to apply multi-variant, comparison, and evaluation functions. Included in these services is the ability to capture data quality and data provenance. These interoperability services can be directly applied to future data sets, such as those from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. This presentation describes the data sets and services at the PDISC that are currently used by precipitation science and applications researchers, and which will be enhanced in preparation for GPM and associated multi-sensor data research. Specifically, the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) will be illustrated. Giovanni enables scientific exploration of Earth science data without researchers having to

  13. Multilevel modelling of mechanical properties of textile composites: ITOOL Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Den Broucke, Bjorn; Drechsler, Klaus; Hanisch, Vera; Hartung, Daniel; Ivanov, Dimitry S.; Koissin, Vitaly E.; Lomov, Stepan V.; Middendorf, Peter

    2007-01-01

    The paper presents an overview of the multi-level modelling of textile composites in the ITOOL project, focusing on the models of textile reinforcements, which serve as a basis for micromechanical models of textile composites on the unit cell level. The modelling is performed using finite element an

  14. Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Abdel Azeem

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Earned value management (EVM was originally developed for cost management and has not widely been used for forecasting project duration. In addition, EVM based formulas for cost or schedule forecasting are still deterministic and do not provide any information about the range of possible outcomes and the probability of meeting the project objectives. The objective of this paper is to develop three models to forecast the estimated duration at completion. Two of these models are deterministic; earned value (EV and earned schedule (ES models. The third model is a probabilistic model and developed based on Kalman filter algorithm and earned schedule management. Hence, the accuracies of the EV, ES and Kalman Filter Forecasting Model (KFFM through the different project periods will be assessed and compared with the other forecasting methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM, which makes the time forecast at activity level by revising the actual reporting data for each activity at a certain data date. A case study project is used to validate the results of the three models. Hence, the best model is selected based on the lowest average percentage of error. The results showed that the KFFM developed in this study provides probabilistic prediction bounds of project duration at completion and can be applied through the different project periods with smaller errors than those observed in EV and ES forecasting models.

  15. Building Context with Tumor Growth Modeling Projects in Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Julie C.; Gevertz, Jana L.; Howard, Keith E.

    2015-01-01

    The use of modeling projects serves to integrate, reinforce, and extend student knowledge. Here we present two projects related to tumor growth appropriate for a first course in differential equations. They illustrate the use of problem-based learning to reinforce and extend course content via a writing or research experience. Here we discuss…

  16. Improving Project Management Using Formal Models and Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Theodore; Sturken, Ian

    2011-01-01

    This talk discusses the advantages formal modeling and architecture brings to project management. These emerging technologies have both great potential and challenges for improving information available for decision-making. The presentation covers standards, tools and cultural issues needing consideration, and includes lessons learned from projects the presenters have worked on.

  17. QMU in Integrated Spacecraft System Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ACTA and Sandia National Laboratories propose to quantify and propagate substructure modeling uncertainty for reduced-order substructure models to higher levels of...

  18. QMU in Integrated Spacecraft System Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ACTA and Sandia National Laboratories propose to quantify and propagate substructure modeling uncertainty for reduced-order substructure models to higher levels of...

  19. A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Motawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.

  20. Physics-Based Pneumatic Hammer Instability Model Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this project is to develop a physics-based pneumatic hammer instability model that accurately predicts the stability of hydrostatic bearings...

  1. Automation of Safety Analysis with SysML Models Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project was a small proof-of-concept case study, generating SysML model information as a side effect of safety analysis. A prototype FMEA Assistant was...

  2. Final Project Report Load Modeling Transmission Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesieutre, Bernard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bravo, Richard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Yinger, Robert [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chassin, Dave [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Huang, Henry [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lu, Ning [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hiskens, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Venkataramanan, Giri [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-03-31

    The research presented in this report primarily focuses on improving power system load models to better represent their impact on system behavior. The previous standard load model fails to capture the delayed voltage recovery events that are observed in the Southwest and elsewhere. These events are attributed to stalled air conditioner units after a fault. To gain a better understanding of their role in these events and to guide modeling efforts, typical air conditioner units were testing in laboratories. Using data obtained from these extensive tests, new load models were developed to match air conditioner behavior. An air conditioner model is incorporated in the new WECC composite load model. These models are used in dynamic studies of the West and can impact power transfer limits for California. Unit-level and systemlevel solutions are proposed as potential solutions to the delayed voltage recovery problem.

  3. Inter-comparison of four different carbon monoxide measurements techniques and evaluation of the long-term carbon monoxide time series of Jungfraujoch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Zellweger

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The 12-year record (1996–2007 of continuous carbon monoxide (CO measurements of the high-alpine site Jungfraujoch (JFJ, Switzerland, was investigated with a focus on trend analysis. To date this is one of the longest time series of continuous CO measurements in the free troposphere over Central Europe. A significant negative trend was observed at JFJ with a decrease of 21.4±0.3% in the investigated period, or an average annual decrease of 2.65±0.04 ppb/yr (1.78%/yr. These results were compared with emission inventory data reported to the Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP Convention. It could be shown that long range transport significantly influences the CO levels observed at JFJ, with air masses of non-European origin contributing to at least a third to observed mixing ratios.

    Such trend analysis and inter-comparison with emission inventories are only possible with data of known quality. To this end, the Non-dispersive Infrared Absorption (NDIR technique used for CO measurements at JFJ was inter-compared over two months using three additional analytical techniques, namely Vacuum UV Resonance Fluorescence (VURF, gas chromatographic separation with a mercuric oxide reduction detector (GC/HgO, and gas chromatographic separation followed by reduction on a nickel catalyst and analysis by a flame ionization detector (GC/FID. The agreement among all techniques was better than 2% for one-hourly averages which confirmed the suitability of the NDIR method for CO measurements even at remote sites.

  4. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  5. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  6. On Helical Projection and Its Application in Screw Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riliang Liu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As helical surfaces, in their many and varied forms, are finding more and more applications in engineering, new approaches to their efficient design and manufacture are desired. To that end, the helical projection method that uses curvilinear projection lines to map a space object to a plane is examined in this paper, focusing on its mathematical model and characteristics in terms of graphical representation of helical objects. A number of interesting projective properties are identified in regard to straight lines, curves, and planes, and then the method is further investigated with respect to screws. The result shows that the helical projection of a cylindrical screw turns out to be a Jordan curve, which is determined by the screw's axial profile and number of flights. Based on the projection theory, a practical approach to the modeling of screws and helical surfaces is proposed and illustrated with examples, and its possible application in screw manufacturing is discussed.

  7. INFORMATIONAL-ANALYTIC MODEL OF REGIONAL PROJECT PORTFOLIO FORMING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Osaulenko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the problem of regional project portfolio management in context of interaction of the regional development’s motive forces interaction. The features of innovation development on the regional level and their influence on the portfolio forming process considered. An existing approaches for portfolio modelling and formal criterion of the projects selection analyzed. At the same time the organization of key subjects of regional development interaction described. The aim of the article is investigation of informational aspects of project selection in process of the main development’s motive forces interaction and analytic model of portfolio filling validation. At that an inclination of stakeholders to reach a consensus taking into account. The Triple Helix conception using for concrete definition of the functions of the regional development’s motive forces. Asserted, that any component of innovation triad «science–business–government» can be an initiator of regional project, but it need to support two another components. Non-power interaction theory using for investigation of subjects interrelations in process of joint activity proposed. One of the key concept of the theory is information distance. It characterizes inclination of the parties to reach a consensus based on statistics. Projections of information distance onto directions of development axes using for more accurate definition of mutual positions in the all lines of development proposed. Another important parameter of the model which has an influence on the project support is awareness of stakeholders about it. Formalized description of project in the form of fast set of parameters proposes to use for determination of the awareness. The weighting coefficients for each parameter by expert way. Simultaneously the precision of the each parameter setting for all presented projects determines. On the base of appointed values of information distances and

  8. Leaf Area Index in Earth System Models: evaluation and projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mahowald

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The amount of leaves in a plant canopy (measured as leaf area index, LAI modulates key land–atmosphere interactions, including the exchange of energy, moisture, carbon dioxide (CO2, and other trace gases, and is therefore an essential variable in predicting terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. The latest generation of Earth system models (ESMs simulate LAI, as well as provide projections of LAI in the future to improve simulations of biophysical and biogeochemical processes, and for use in climate impact studies. Here we use satellite measurements of LAI to answer the following questions: (1 are the models accurately simulating the mean LAI spatial distribution? (2 Are the models accurately simulating the seasonal cycle in LAI? (3 Are the models correctly simulating the processes driving interannual variability in the current climate? And finally based on this analysis, (4 can we reduce the uncertainty in future projections of LAI by using each model's skill in the current climate? Overall, models are able to capture some of the main characteristics of the LAI mean and seasonal cycle, but all of the models can be improved in one or more regions. Comparison of the modeled and observed interannual variability in the current climate suggested that in high latitudes the models may overpredict increases in LAI based on warming temperature, while in the tropics the models may overpredict the negative impacts of warming temperature on LAI. We expect, however, larger uncertainties in observational estimates of interannual LAI compared to estimates of seasonal or mean LAI. Future projections of LAI by the ESMs are largely optimistic, with only limited regions seeing reductions in LAI. Future projections of LAI in the models are quite different, and are sensitive to climate model projections of precipitation. They also strongly depend on the amount of carbon dioxide fertilization in high latitudes. Based on comparisons between model simulated

  9. Process simulation and parametric modeling for strategic project management

    CERN Document Server

    Morales, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Process Simulation and Parametric Modeling for Strategic Project Management will offer CIOs, CTOs and Software Development Managers, IT Graduate Students an introduction to a set of technologies that will help them understand how to better plan software development projects, manage risk and have better insight into the complexities of the software development process.A novel methodology will be introduced that allows a software development manager to better plan and access risks in the early planning of a project.  By providing a better model for early software development estimation and softw

  10. Variable Fidelity Aeroelastic Toolkit - Structural Model Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed innovation is a methodology to incorporate variable fidelity structural models into steady and unsteady aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic analyses in...

  11. Computational Models for Nonlinear Aeroelastic Systems Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Clear Science Corp. and Duke University propose to develop and demonstrate new and efficient computational methods of modeling nonlinear aeroelastic systems. The...

  12. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes capabilities...

  13. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology (ZONA) proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology that utilizes flight data with...

  14. Systemic change increases model projection uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verstegen, Judith; Karssenberg, Derek; van der Hilst, Floortje; Faaij, André

    2014-01-01

    Most spatio-temporal models are based on the assumption that the relationship between system state change and its explanatory processes is stationary. This means that model structure and parameterization are usually kept constant over time, ignoring potential systemic changes in this relationship re

  15. A MODEL FOR ALIGNING SOFTWARE PROJECTS REQUIREMENTS WITH PROJECT TEAM MEMBERS REQUIREMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Hans

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The fast-paced, dynamic environment within which information and communication technology (ICT projects are run as well as ICT professionals’ constant changing requirements present a challenge for project managers in terms of aligning projects’ requirements with project team members’ requirements. This research paper purports that if projects’ requirements are properly aligned with team members’ requirements, then this will result in a balanced decision approach. Moreover, such an alignment will result in the realization of employee’s needs as well as meeting project’s needs. This paper presents a Project’s requirements and project Team members’ requirements (PrTr alignment model and argues that a balanced decision which meets both software project’s requirements and team members’ requirements can be achieved through the application of the PrTr alignment model.

  16. Proposal of New PRORISK Model for GSD Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rizwan Jameel Qureshi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The level of complexity and risks associated with software are increasing exponentially because of competing environment especially in geographically distributed projects. Global software development (GSD face challenges like distance, communication and coordination challenges. The coordination and communication challenges are the main causes of failure in GSD. Project Oriented Risk Management (PRORISK is one of the models to address the importance of risk management and project management processes in standard software projects. However, existing model is not proposed to handle GSD associated risks. This warrants the proposal of new PRORISK model to manage the risks of GSD. Survey is used as a research design to validate the proposed solution. We anticipate that the proposed solution will help the software companies to cater the risks associated with GSD.

  17. Model Updating Nonlinear System Identification Toolbox Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ZONA Technology proposes to develop an enhanced model updating nonlinear system identification (MUNSID) methodology by adopting the flight data with state-of-the-art...

  18. Service Oriented Spacecraft Modeling Environment Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The I-Logix team proposes development of the Service Oriented Spacecraft Modeling Environment (SOSME) to allow faster and more effective spacecraft system design...

  19. Generalized Reduced Order Model Generation Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — M4 Engineering proposes to develop a generalized reduced order model generation method. This method will allow for creation of reduced order aeroservoelastic state...

  20. Computational Models for Nonlinear Aeroelastic Systems Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Clear Science Corp. and Duke University propose to develop and demonstrate a new and efficient computational method of modeling nonlinear aeroelastic systems. The...

  1. Multiscale Modeling of Hall Thrusters Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — New multiscale modeling capability for analyzing advanced Hall thrusters is proposed. This technology offers NASA the ability to reduce development effort of new...

  2. Crew Autonomy Measures and Models (CAMM) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — SA Technologies will employ a two-part solution including measures and models for evaluating crew autonomy in exploratory space missions. An integrated measurement...

  3. Projected increase in total knee arthroplasty in the United States - an alternative projection model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inacio, M C S; Paxton, E W; Graves, S E; Namba, R S; Nemes, S

    2017-08-08

    The purpose of our study was to estimate the future incidence rate (IR) and volume of primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in the United States from 2015 to 2050 using a conservative projection model that assumes a maximum IR of procedures. Furthermore, our study compared these projections to a model assuming exponential growth, as done in previous studies, for illustrative purposes. A population based epidemiological study was conducted using data from US National Inpatient Sample (NIS) and Census Bureau. Primary TKA procedures performed between 1993 and 2012 were identified. The IR, 95% confidence intervals (CI), or prediction intervals (PI) of TKA per 100,000 US citizens over the age of 40 years were calculated. The estimated IR was used as the outcome of a regression modelling with a logistic regression (i.e., conservative model) and Poisson regression equation (i.e., exponential growth model). Logistic regression modelling suggests the IR of TKA is expected to increase 69% by 2050 compared to 2012, from 429 (95%CI 374-453) procedures/100,000 in 2012 to 725 (95%PI 121-1041) in 2050. This translates into a 143% projected increase in TKA volume. Using the Poisson model, the IR in 2050 was projected to increase 565%, to 2854 (95%CI 2278-4004) procedures/100,000 IR, which is an 855% projected increase in volume compared to 2012. Even after using a conservative projection approach, the number of TKAs in the US, which already has the highest IR of knee arthroplasty in the world, is expected to increase 143% by 2050. Copyright © 2017 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Applying a Hybrid MCDM Model for Six Sigma Project Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Kwun Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Six Sigma is a project-driven methodology; the projects that provide the maximum financial benefits and other impacts to the organization must be prioritized. Project selection (PS is a type of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. In this study, we present a hybrid MCDM model combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL technique, analytic network process (ANP, and the VIKOR method to evaluate and improve Six Sigma projects for reducing performance gaps in each criterion and dimension. We consider the film printing industry of Taiwan as an empirical case. The results show that our study not only can use the best project selection, but can also be used to analyze the gaps between existing performance values and aspiration levels for improving the gaps in each dimension and criterion based on the influential network relation map.

  5. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  6. Benefits of a Cohort Survival Projection Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suslow, Sidney

    1977-01-01

    A cohort survival model of student attendance provides primary and secondary benefits in accurate student information not before available. At Berkeley the computerized Cohort Survival History File, in use for two years, has been successful in assessing various aspects of students' academic behavior and student flow problems. (Editor/LBH)

  7. Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiltshire, Travis; Butner, Jonathan E.; Pirtle, Zachary

    2017-01-01

    In complex work domains and organizations, understanding scheduleing dynamics can ensure objectives are reached and delays are mitigated. In the current paper, we examine the scheduling dynamics for NASA’s Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) activities. For this examination, we specifically modeled...

  8. Towards an Intelligent Project Based Organization Business Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alami Marrouni Oussama

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Global economy is undergoing a recession phase that had made competition tougher and imposed new business framework. Businesses have to shift from the classical management approaches to an Intelligent Project Based Organization (IPBO model that provides flexibility and agility. IPBO model is intended to reinforce the proven advantages of Project Based Organization (PBO by the use of suitable Enterprise Intelligence (EI Systems. The goal of this paper is to propose an IPBO model that combines benefits of PBO and EI and helps overcoming their pitfalls

  9. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben

    2011-01-31

    To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols, but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

  10. Development and application of new quality model for software projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnavel, K; Dillibabu, R

    2014-01-01

    The IT industry tries to employ a number of models to identify the defects in the construction of software projects. In this paper, we present COQUALMO and its limitations and aim to increase the quality without increasing the cost and time. The computation time, cost, and effort to predict the residual defects are very high; this was overcome by developing an appropriate new quality model named the software testing defect corrective model (STDCM). The STDCM was used to estimate the number of remaining residual defects in the software product; a few assumptions and the detailed steps of the STDCM are highlighted. The application of the STDCM is explored in software projects. The implementation of the model is validated using statistical inference, which shows there is a significant improvement in the quality of the software projects.

  11. The Frontier Fields Lens Modeling Comparison Project

    CERN Document Server

    Meneghetti, M; Coe, D; Contini, E; De Lucia, G; Giocoli, C; Acebron, A; Borgani, S; Bradac, M; Diego, J M; Hoag, A; Ishigaki, M; Johnson, T L; Jullo, E; Kawamata, R; Lam, D; Limousin, M; Liesenborgs, J; Oguri, M; Sebesta, K; Sharon, K; Williams, L L R; Zitrin, A

    2016-01-01

    Gravitational lensing by clusters of galaxies offers a powerful probe of their structure and mass distribution. Deriving a lens magnification map for a galaxy cluster is a classic inversion problem and many methods have been developed over the past two decades to solve it. Several research groups have developed techniques independently to map the predominantly dark matter distribution in cluster lenses. While these methods have all provided remarkably high precision mass maps, particularly with exquisite imaging data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), the reconstructions themselves have never been directly compared. In this paper, we report the results of comparing various independent lens modeling techniques employed by individual research groups in the community. Here we present for the first time a detailed and robust comparison of methodologies for fidelity, accuracy and precision. For this collaborative exercise, the lens modeling community was provided simulated cluster images -- of two clusters Are...

  12. Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-09-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  13. Building Models from the Bottom Up: The HOBBES Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medellin-Azuara, J.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Lund, J. R.; Chu, W.

    2013-12-01

    Water problems are often bigger than technical and data challenges associated in representing a water system using a model. Controversy and complexity is inherent when water is to be allocated among different uses making difficult to maintain coherent and productive discussions on addressing water problems. Quantification of a water supply system through models has proven to be helpful to improve understanding, explore and develop adaptable solutions to water problems. However, models often become too large and complex and become hostages of endless discussions of the assumptions, their algorithms and their limitations. Data management organization and documentation keep model flexible and useful over time. The UC Davis HOBBES project is a new approach, building models from the bottom up. Reversing the traditional model development, where data are arranged around a model algorithm, in Hobbes the data structure, organization and documentation are established first, followed by application of simulation or optimization modeling algorithms for a particular problem at hand. The HOBBES project establishes standards for storing, documenting and sharing datasets on California water system. This allows models to be developed and modified more easily and transparently, with greater comparability. Elements in the database have a spatial definition and can aggregate several infrastructural elements into detailed to coarse representations of the water system. Elements in the database represent reservoirs, groundwater basins, pumping stations, hydropower and water treatment facilities, demand areas and conveyance infrastructure statewide. These elements also host time series, economic and other information from hydrologic, economic, climate and other models. This presentation provides an overview of the project HOBBES project, its applications and prospects for California and elsewhere. The HOBBES Project

  14. Proposed best practice for projects that involve modelling and simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Kelly, Michael; Anisimov, Vladimir; Campbell, Chris; Hamilton, Sinéad

    2017-03-01

    Modelling and simulation has been used in many ways when developing new treatments. To be useful and credible, it is generally agreed that modelling and simulation should be undertaken according to some kind of best practice. A number of authors have suggested elements required for best practice in modelling and simulation. Elements that have been suggested include the pre-specification of goals, assumptions, methods, and outputs. However, a project that involves modelling and simulation could be simple or complex and could be of relatively low or high importance to the project. It has been argued that the level of detail and the strictness of pre-specification should be allowed to vary, depending on the complexity and importance of the project. This best practice document does not prescribe how to develop a statistical model. Rather, it describes the elements required for the specification of a project and requires that the practitioner justify in the specification the omission of any of the elements and, in addition, justify the level of detail provided about each element. This document is an initiative of the Special Interest Group for modelling and simulation. The Special Interest Group for modelling and simulation is a body open to members of Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry and the European Federation of Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry. Examples of a very detailed specification and a less detailed specification are included as appendices. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Semiclassical projection of hedgehog models with quarks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohen, T.D.; Broniowski, W.

    1986-12-01

    A simple semiclassical method is presented for calculating physical observables in states with good angular momentum and isospin for models whose mean-field solutions are hedgehogs. The method is applicable for theories which have both quark and meson degrees of freedom. The basic approach is to find slowly rotating solutions to the time-dependent mean-field equations. A nontrivial set of differential equations must be solved to find the quark configuration for these rotating hedgehogs. The parameters which specify the rotating solutions are treated as the collective degrees of freedom. They are requantized by imposing a set of commutation relations which ensures the correct algebra for the SU(2) x SU(2) group of angular momentum and isospin. Collective wave functions can then be found and with these wave functions all matrix elements can be calculated. The method is applied to a simple version of the chiral quark-meson model. A number of physical quantities such as magnetic moments, charge distributions, g/sub A/, g/sub ..pi..//sub N//sub N/, N-..delta.. mass splitting, properties of the N-..delta.. transition, etc., are calculated.

  16. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  17. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    1. Population projection matrices (PPMs) are probably the most commonly used empirical population models. To be useful for predictive or prospective analyses, PPM models should generally be irreducible (the associated life cycle graph contains the necessary transition rates to facilitate pathways...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... to irreducible models. Reducible–non-ergodic models will usually defy biological rationale in their description of the both the life cycle and population dynamics, hence contravening most analytical methods. 4. We provide simple methods to evaluate reducibility and ergodicity of PPM models, present illustrative...

  18. A Model for Crises Management in Software Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Tarawneh

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Today software projects are important part into almost every business application. It is quality, efficiency and effectiveness of these applications will determine the failure or success of many business solutions. Consequently, businesses often find that they need to have a competitive and efficient advantage through the development and improve of software projects that help critical business activities. The quality of a software project is determined by the quality of the software development process. Improvements in the development process can lead to significant improvement in software quality. Based on the foregoing risks and problems which may be software engineering project faced, we try to shed light on the mechanism of dealing with crises in software engineering projects in this research. This research suggests a set of rules and guidelines that help software project mangers to prevent and dealing with software project crises Also a model was proposed; the proposed model showed a set of steps that must be implemented in case of crises emerging or before it happen. The crisis management starts understanding it first and then to prepare a careful review of her as she is looking for regions or aspects of the turmoil and failures. The next step is the classification of crisis, then the preparation or design a plan attitudinal or contingency plan, which must be implemented immediately upon the occurrence of crisis. Finally, the final element is the implementation of the program or plan established soon after the crisis and it should be noted here that the project team of software engineering that have been trained on the virtual models of various crises, which helps in the development of managed, skills, and also that you should avoid or ignore the failure to acknowledge a problem when Start or try to be underestimated or taken lightly.

  19. Projected Dipole Model for Quantum Plasmonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yan, Wei; Wubs, Martijn; Mortensen, N. Asger

    2015-01-01

    Quantum effects of plasmonic phenomena have been explored through ab initio studies, but only for exceedingly small metallic nanostructures, leaving most experimentally relevant structures too large to handle. We propose instead an effective description with the computationally appealing features...... of classical electrodynamics, while quantum properties are described accurately through an infinitely thin layer of dipoles oriented normally to the metal surface. The nonlocal polarizability of the dipole layer-the only introduced parameter-is mapped from the free-electron distribution near the metal surface...... as obtained with 1D quantum calculations, such as time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT), and is determined once and for all. The model can be applied in two and three dimensions to any system size that is tractable within classical electrodynamics, while capturing quantum plasmonic aspects...

  20. Climate Change Projections for Sri Lanka for the mid-twentieth Century from CMIP5 Simulations under a High Emissions Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubair, L.; Agalawatte, P.

    2014-12-01

    Under the Agricultural Model Inter-Comparison program (AgMIP), climate change projections for Sri Lanka were undertaken from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) archives for five locations covering Sri Lanka. These datasets were first quality checked after removing questionable data entries. The gaps in data were filled using AgMERRA data set for the specific location developed by Alex Ruane and Sonali McDermid at NASA- GISS after applying the necessary bias corrections. Future climate projections for 2040- 2070 are based on projections for high Carbon Dioxide emissions (RCP8.5). Analysis was undertaken on the outputs of 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs). Observed climate datasets (for the period 1980- 2010) for each location were used to generate downscaled future predictions. Future projections for maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall were generated while holding solar radiation constant and changing the CO2 value up to 499 ppm. Results for 5 GCMs that simulate the monsoon region best were then selected for further analysis. These are CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-MR. All 20 GCM outputs predicted that both minimum and maximum temperature shall rise by around 2 ⁰C throughout the year. This result is consistent across all 5 locations and the uncertainty associated with this prediction was observed to be low compared to that of rainfall. In the case of the rainfall, majority (80- 95%) of GCMs predicted an increment in the annual rainfall by around 0.5 mm/day. Rainfall during September- October- November was predicted to have a high increment (around 2- 7 mm/day) and during February- March a decrement of around 1- 2 mm/day was predicted. The uncertainty of this prediction based on outputs of all 20 GCMs were observed to be high. These results are consistent with the Fourth Assessment Report by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change.

  1. A Hybrid Authorization Model For Project-Oriented Workflow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xiaoguang(张晓光); Cao Jian; Zhang Shensheng

    2003-01-01

    In the context of workflow systems, security-relevant aspect is related to the assignment of activities to (human or automated) agents. This paper intends to cast light on the management of project-oriented workflow. A comprehensive authorization model is proposed from the perspective of project management. In this model, the concept of activity decomposition and team is introduced, which improves the security of conventional role-based access control. Furthermore, policy is provided to define the static and dynamic constraints such as Separation of Duty (SoD). Validity of constraints is proposed to provide a fine-grained assignment, which improves the performance of policy management. The model is applicable not only to project-oriented workflow applications but also to other teamwork environments such as virtual enterprise.

  2. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR IMPROVED PROJECT SELECTION AND PRIORITISATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Viljoen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Project portfolio management processes are often designed and operated as a series of stages (or project phases and gates. However, the flow of such a process is often slow, characterised by queues waiting for a gate decision and by repeated work from previous stages waiting for additional information or for re-processing. In this paper the authors propose a conceptual model that applies supply chain and constraint management principles to the project portfolio management process. An advantage of the proposed model is that it provides the ability to select and prioritise projects without undue changes to project schedules. This should result in faster flow through the system.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Prosesse om portefeuljes van projekte te bestuur word normaalweg ontwerp en bedryf as ’n reeks fases en hekke. Die vloei deur so ’n proses is dikwels stadig en word gekenmerk deur toue wat wag vir besluite by die hekke en ook deur herwerk van vorige fases wat wag vir verdere inligting of vir herprosessering. In hierdie artikel word ‘n konseptuele model voorgestel. Die model berus op die beginsels van voorsieningskettings sowel as van beperkingsbestuur, en bied die voordeel dat projekte geselekteer en geprioritiseer kan word sonder onnodige veranderinge aan projekskedules. Dit behoort te lei tot versnelde vloei deur die stelsel.

  3. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    OpenAIRE

    Frantisek Jelenciak; Michael Gerke; Ulrich Borgolte

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM) as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that - in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a...

  4. Suitability Analysis of Continuous-Use Reliability Growth Projection Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    exists for all types, shapes, and sizes. The primary focus of this study is a comparison of reliability growth projection models designed for...requirements to use reliability growth models, recent studies have noted trends in reliability failures throughout the DoD. In [14] Dr. Michael Gilmore...so a strict exponential distribu- tion was used to stay within their assumptions. In reality, however, reliability growth models often must be used

  5. Heart Modeling, Computational Physiology and the IUPS Physiome Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Peter J.

    The Physiome Project of the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) is attempting to provide a comprehensive framework for modelling the human body using computational methods which can incorporate the biochemistry, biophysics and anatomy of cells, tissues and organs. A major goal of the project is to use computational modelling to analyse integrative biological function in terms of underlying structure and molecular mechanisms. To support that goal the project is developing XML markup languages (CellML & FieldML) for encoding models, and software tools for creating, visualizing and executing these models. It is also establishing web-accessible physiological databases dealing with model-related data at the cell, tissue, organ and organ system levels. Two major developments in current medicine are, on the one hand, the much publicised genomics (and soon proteomics) revolution and, on the other, the revolution in medical imaging in which the physiological function of the human body can be studied with a plethora of imaging devices such as MRI, CT, PET, ultrasound, electrical mapping, etc. The challenge for the Physiome Project is to link these two developments for an individual - to use complementary genomic and medical imaging data, together with computational modelling tailored to the anatomy, physiology and genetics of that individual, for patient-specific diagnosis and treatment.

  6. Construction project investment control model based on instant information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xue-tong

    2006-01-01

    Change of construction conditions always influences project investment by causing the loss of construction work time and extending the duration. To resolve such problem as difficult dynamic control in work construction plan, this article presents a concept of instant optimization by ways of adjustment operation time of each working procedure to minimize investment change. Based on this concept, its mathematical model is established and a strict mathematical justification is performed. An instant optimization model takes advantage of instant information in the construction process to duly complete adjustment of construction; thus we maximize cost efficiency of project investment.

  7. Development of the NASA Digital Astronaut Project Muscle Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowski, Beth E.; Pennline, James A.; Thompson, W. K.; Humphreys, B. T.; Ryder, J. W.; Ploutz-Snyder, L. L.; Mulugeta, L.

    2015-01-01

    This abstract describes development work performed on the NASA Digital Astronaut Project Muscle Model. Muscle atrophy is a known physiological response to exposure to a low gravity environment. The DAP muscle model computationally predicts the change in muscle structure and function vs. time in a reduced gravity environment. The spaceflight muscle model can then be used in biomechanical models of exercise countermeasures and spaceflight tasks to: 1) develop site specific bone loading input to the DAP bone adaptation model over the course of a mission; 2) predict astronaut performance of spaceflight tasks; 3) inform effectiveness of new exercise countermeasures concepts.

  8. Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

    CERN Document Server

    Hilbert, Frank; Araujo, Larissa; 10.4204/EPTCS.83.1

    2012-01-01

    During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO), relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

  9. Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Hilbert

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO, relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

  10. The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  11. Risk Classification Model for Design and Build Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. E. Ogunsanmi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate if the various risk sources in Design and Build projects can be classified into three risk groups of cost, time and quality using the discriminant analysis technique. Literature search was undertaken to review issues of risk sources, classification of the identified risks into a risk structure, management of risks and effects of risks all on Design and Build projects as well as concepts of discriminant analysis as a statistical technique. This literature review was undertaken through the use of internet, published papers, journal articles and other published reports on risks in Design and Build projects. A research questionnaire was further designed to collect research information. This research study is a survey research that utilized cross-sectional design to capture the primary data. The data for the survey was collected in Nigeria. In all 40 questionnaires were sent to various respondents that included Architects, Engineers, Quantity Surveyors and Builders who had used Design and Build procurement method for their recently completed projects. Responses from these retrieved questionnaires that measured the impact of risks on Design and Build were analyzed using the discriminant analysis technique through the use of SPSS software package to build two discriminant models for classifying risks into cost, time and quality risk groups. Results of the study indicate that time overrun and poor quality are the two factors that discriminate between cost, time and quality related risk groups. These two discriminant functions explain the variation between the risk groups. All the discriminating variables of cost overrun, time overrun and poor quality demonstrate some relationships with the two discriminant functions. The two discriminant models built can classify risks in Design and Build projects into risk groups of cost, time and quality. These classifications models have 72% success rate of classification

  12. Modeling Projects in E-Learning Course: A Case of an Information Technology Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed G. Belkasmi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Achieving projects is primordial in the process of teaching in several disciplines, particularly software engineering courses. However, proposing this learning activity in a context of e-learning is not automatically guaranteed by the current platforms, even unsupported by the existing standards for creating educational content. Approach: Through this study, starting from the model developed in the “XESOP-Jaxe” project to represent the contents of an e-learning course, we tried to propose an improvement in order to formalize a project for learners as a learning object. Results: We grafted our model, formalized in XML Schema, to the “XESOP-Jaxe” schema of the course. Thus, to the elements that could constitute a course, comes a new element called “projet” (project. Conclusion: This model was built and tested within the “XESOP-Jaxe” platform whose goal is to provide an effective solution for creating educational content in compliance with existing standards.

  13. Incentive Model Based on Cooperative Relationship in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the cooperative relationship between owners and contractors in sustainable construction projects, as well as the synergistic effects created by cooperative behaviors, a cooperative incentive model was developed using game theory. The model was formulated and analyzed under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations. Then, a numerical simulation and example were proposed to verify the conclusions derived from the model. The results showed that the synergistic effect increases the input intensity of one party’s resource transfer into the increase of marginal utility of the other party, thus the owner and contractor are willing to enhance their levels of effort. One party’s optimal benefit allocation coefficient is positively affected by its own output efficiency, and negatively affected by the other party’s output efficiency. The effort level and expected benefits of the owner and contractor can be improved by enhancing the cooperative relationship between the two parties, as well as enhancing the net benefits of a sustainable construction project. The synergistic effect cannot lower the negative effect of moral hazard behaviors during the implementation of sustainable construction projects. Conversely, the higher levels of the cooperative relationship, the wider the gaps amongst the optimal values under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations for the levels of effort, expected benefits and net project benefits. Since few studies to date have emphasized the effects of cooperative relationship on sustainable construction projects, this study constructed a game-based incentive model to bridge the gaps. This study contributes significant theoretical and practical insights into the management of cooperation amongst stakeholders, and into the enhancement of the overall benefits of sustainable construction projects.

  14. High Performance Computing tools for the Integrated Tokamak Modelling project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guillerminet, B., E-mail: bernard.guillerminet@cea.f [Association Euratom-CEA sur la Fusion, IRFM, DSM, CEA Cadarache (France); Plasencia, I. Campos [Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria (IFCA), CSIC, Santander (Spain); Haefele, M. [Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg (France); Iannone, F. [EURATOM/ENEA Fusion Association, Frascati (Italy); Jackson, A. [University of Edinburgh (EPCC) (United Kingdom); Manduchi, G. [EURATOM/ENEA Fusion Association, Padova (Italy); Plociennik, M. [Poznan Supercomputing and Networking Center (PSNC) (Poland); Sonnendrucker, E. [Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg (France); Strand, P. [Chalmers University of Technology (Sweden); Owsiak, M. [Poznan Supercomputing and Networking Center (PSNC) (Poland)

    2010-07-15

    Fusion Modelling and Simulation are very challenging and the High Performance Computing issues are addressed here. Toolset for jobs launching and scheduling, data communication and visualization have been developed by the EUFORIA project and used with a plasma edge simulation code.

  15. Multimode model for projective photon-counting measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tualle-Brouri, Rosa; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Dantan, Aurélien

    2009-01-01

    We present a general model to account for the multimode nature of the quantum electromagnetic field in projective photon-counting measurements. We focus on photon-subtraction experiments, where non-Gaussian states are produced conditionally. These are useful states for continuous-variable quantum...

  16. Predicting Flu Season Requirements: An Undergraduate Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramlich, Gary R., II; Braunstein Fierson, Janet L.; Wright, J. Adam

    2010-01-01

    This project was designed to be used in a freshman calculus class whose students had already been introduced to logistic functions and basic data modeling techniques. It need not be limited to such an audience, however; it has also been implemented in a topics in mathematics class for college upperclassmen. Originally intended to be presented in…

  17. Project Physics Tests 5, Models of the Atom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA. Harvard Project Physics.

    Test items relating to Project Physics Unit 5 are presented in this booklet. Included are 70 multiple-choice and 23 problem-and-essay questions. Concepts of atomic model are examined on aspects of relativistic corrections, electron emission, photoelectric effects, Compton effect, quantum theories, electrolysis experiments, atomic number and mass,…

  18. Building information modeling (BIM) approach to the GMT Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teran, Jose; Sheehan, Michael; Neff, Daniel H.; Adriaanse, David; Grigel, Eric; Farahani, Arash

    2014-07-01

    The Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT), one of several next generation Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs), is a 25.4 meter diameter altitude over azimuth design set to be built at the summit of Cerro Campánas at the Las Campánas Observatory in Chile. The paper describes the use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) for the GMT project.

  19. Student Success in College Composition through the Puente Project Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffe, Barbara

    Much can be learned from California's Puente Project Model that would help students' success in classrooms as well as in college in general, and in their daily lives. Puente, which means "bridge" in Spanish, began in 1982 at Chabot College in northern California and is now in 38 colleges and 19 high schools statewide. Originally designed…

  20. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    , SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...... investment analysis....

  1. Data model issues in the Cherenkov Telescope Array project

    CERN Document Server

    Contreras, J L; Bernlöhr, K; Boisson, C; Bregeon, J; Bulgarelli, A; de Cesare, G; Reyes, R de los; Fioretti, V; Kosack, K; Lavalley, C; Lyard, E; Marx, R; Rico, J; Sanguillot, M; Servillat, M; Walter, R; Ward, J E

    2015-01-01

    The planned Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), a future ground-based Very-High-Energy (VHE) gamma-ray observatory, will be the largest project of its kind. It aims to provide an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity compared to currently operating VHE experiments and open access to guest observers. These features, together with the thirty years lifetime planned for the installation, impose severe constraints on the data model currently being developed for the project. In this contribution we analyze the challenges faced by the CTA data model development and present the requirements imposed to face them. While the full data model is still not completed we show the organization of the work, status of the design, and an overview of the prototyping efforts carried out so far. We also show examples of specific aspects of the data model currently under development.

  2. Using Subsurface CO2 Concentrations and Isotopologues to Identify CO2 Seepage from CCS/CO2-EOR Projects: A Signal-to-Noise Based Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickerson, N. R.; Risk, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    In order to fulfill a role in demonstrating containment, surface monitoring for Carbon Capture and Geologic Storage (CCS) sites must be able to clearly discriminate between natural, and leakage-source CO2. The CCS community lacks a clear metric for quantifying the degree of discrimination, for successful inter-comparison of monitoring approaches. This study illustrates the utility of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) to compare the relative performance of three commonly used soil gas monitoring approaches, including bulk CO2, δ13CO2, and Δ14CO2. For inter-comparisons, we used a simulated northern temperate landscape similar to that of Weyburn, Saskatchewan (home of the IEAGHG Weyburn-Midale CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project), in which realistic spatial and temporal CO2 and isotopic variation is simulated for periods of one year or more. Results indicate, that, for this particular ecosystem, Δ14C signatures have the best overall SNR at all simulated seepage rates, and for all points across the synthetic landscape. We then apply this same SNR based approach to data collected during a 6-month sampling campaign at three locations on the Weyburn oil field. This study emphasizes both the importance of developing clear metrics for monitoring performance, and the benefit of modeling for decision support in CCS monitoring design.

  3. Applying the World Water and Agriculture Model to Filling Scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villa, Daniel L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The World Water and Agriculture Model has been used to simulate water, hydropower, and food sector effects in Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia during the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This unique capability allows tradeoffs to be made between filling policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This Nile River Basin study is presented to illustrate the capacity to use the World Water and Agriculture Model to simulate regional food security issues while keeping a global perspective. The study uses runoff data from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 and information from the literature in order to establish a reasonable set of hydrological initial conditions. Gross Domestic Product and population growth are modelled exogenously based on a composite projection of United Nations and World Bank data. The effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under various percentages of water withheld are presented.

  4. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    OpenAIRE

    Ettore Bernardoni; Marco Acutis; Domenico Ventrella

    2012-01-01

    The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1), the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB) and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC) were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model ...

  5. Project W-320 thermal hydraulic model benchmarking and baselining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K.

    1998-09-28

    Project W-320 will be retrieving waste from Tank 241-C-106 and transferring the waste to Tank 241-AY-102. Waste in both tanks must be maintained below applicable thermal limits during and following the waste transfer. Thermal hydraulic process control models will be used for process control of the thermal limits. This report documents the process control models and presents a benchmarking of the models with data from Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102. Revision 1 of this report will provide a baselining of the models in preparation for the initiation of sluicing.

  6. Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojian

    The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water

  7. Multi-person Decision Model for Unfinished Construction Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiono Utomo

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a proposed model of multi-person decision on prioritizing selection with regard to continuing or terminating unfinished construction projects. This involved multiple steps including determining criteria and sub criteria, selecting and weighting of alternatives, optimizing, and analyzing coalition formation and agreement option. Criteria and sub criteria that were obtained from perspectives of 120 project managers are the first basis to construct decision hierarchy. The model is implemented in one of the biggest private construction projects in Indonesia. The implementation was based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process for multi criteria decision involving coalition and agreement options in a multi-person decision. Goal Programming was used to optimize based on cost constrains. The results demonstrate a process of multiperson decision to select priorities of each alternative to each decision and concluded that some of the projects were continued, postponed or terminated. The new direction of research presented in this paper presents some interesting challenges to those involved in modeling computer-based multi-person decision support utilizing both Multi Agent System and Multi Criteria Decision Making.

  8. Future meteorological drought: projections of regional climate models for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagge, James; Tallaksen, Lena; Rizzi, Jonathan

    2015-04-01

    In response to the major European drought events of the last decade, projecting future drought frequency and severity in a non-stationary climate is a major concern for Europe. Prior drought studies have identified regional hotspots in the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions, but have otherwise produced conflicting results with regard to future drought severity. Some of this disagreement is likely related to the relatively coarse resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional averaging, which tends to smooth extremes. This study makes use of the most current Regional Climate Models (RCMs) forced with CMIP5 climate projections to quantify the projected change in meteorological drought for Europe during the next century at a fine, gridded scale. Meteorological drought is quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which normalize accumulated precipitation and climatic water balance anomaly, respectively, for a specific location and time of year. By comparing projections for these two indices, the importance of precipitation deficits can be contrasted with the importance of evapotranspiration increases related to temperature changes. Climate projections are based on output from CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment), which provides high resolution regional downscaled climate scenarios that have been extensively tested for numerous regions around the globe, including Europe. SPI and SPEI are then calculated on a gridded scale at a spatial resolution of either 0.44 degrees (~50 km) or 0.11 degrees (~12.5km) for the three projected emission pathways (rcp26, rcp45, rcp85). Analysis is divided into two major sections: first validating the models with respect to observed historical trends in meteorological drought from 1970-2005 and then comparing drought severity and frequency during three future time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) to the

  9. Modeling air quality over China: Results from the Panda project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katinka Petersen, Anna; Bouarar, Idir; Brasseur, Guy; Granier, Claire; Xie, Ying; Wang, Lili; Wang, Xuemei

    2015-04-01

    China faces strong air pollution problems related to rapid economic development in the past decade and increasing demand for energy. Air quality monitoring stations often report high levels of particle matter and ozone all over the country. Knowing its long-term health impacts, air pollution became then a pressing problem not only in China but also in other Asian countries. The PANDA project is a result of cooperation between scientists from Europe and China who joined their efforts for a better understanding of the processes controlling air pollution in China, improve methods for monitoring air quality and elaborate indicators in support of European and Chinese policies. A modeling system of air pollution is being setup within the PANDA project and include advanced global (MACC, EMEP) and regional (WRF-Chem, EMEP) meteorological and chemical models to analyze and monitor air quality in China. The poster describes the accomplishments obtained within the first year of the project. Model simulations for January and July 2010 are evaluated with satellite measurements (SCIAMACHY NO2 and MOPITT CO) and in-situ data (O3, CO, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5) observed at several surface stations in China. Using the WRF-Chem model, we investigate the sensitivity of the model performance to emissions (MACCity, HTAPv2), horizontal resolution (60km, 20km) and choice of initial and boundary conditions.

  10. Fuzzy MCDM Model for Risk Factor Selection in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pejman Rezakhani

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk factor selection is an important step in a successful risk management plan. There are many risk factors in a construction project and by an effective and systematic risk selection process the most critical risks can be distinguished to have more attention. In this paper through a comprehensive literature survey, most significant risk factors in a construction project are classified in a hierarchical structure. For an effective risk factor selection, a modified rational multi criteria decision making model (MCDM is developed. This model is a consensus rule based model and has the optimization property of rational models. By applying fuzzy logic to this model, uncertainty factors in group decision making such as experts` influence weights, their preference and judgment for risk selection criteria will be assessed. Also an intelligent checking process to check the logical consistency of experts` preferences will be implemented during the decision making process. The solution inferred from this method is in the highest degree of acceptance of group members. Also consistency of individual preferences is checked by some inference rules. This is an efficient and effective approach to prioritize and select risks based on decisions made by group of experts in construction projects. The applicability of presented method is assessed through a case study.

  11. Models of Charity Donations and Project Funding in Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojciechowski, Adam

    One of the key fundaments of building a society is common interest or shared aims of the group members. This research work is a try to analyze web-based services oriented towards money collection for various social and charity projects. The phenomenon of social founding is worth a closer look at because its success strongly depends on the ability to build an ad-hoc or persistent groups of people sharing their believes and willing to support external institutions or individuals. The paper presents a review of money collection sites, various models of donation and money collection process as well as ways how the projects' results are reported to their founders. There is also a proposal of money collection service, where donators are not charged until total declared help overheads required resources to complete the project. The risk of missing real donations for declared payments, after the collection is closed, can be assessed and minimized by building a social network.

  12. Preparing for the ingestion of SWOT data into continental-scale river models

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Cédric; Andreadis, Konstantinos; Beighley, Edward; Famiglietti, James; Boone, Aaron; Yamazaki, Dai; Kim, Hyungjun; Gaborit, Etienne

    2016-04-01

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the end of this decade. SWOT should retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being designed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the preliminary architecture of the inter-comparison in hope to motivate community feedback and involvement.

  13. How Do Artifact Models Help Direct SPI Projects?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuhrmann, Marco; Richardson, Ita

    2015-01-01

    To overcome shortcomings associated with software process improvement (SPI), we previously recommended that process engineers focus on the artifacts to be developed in SPI projects. These artifacts should define desired outcomes, rather than specific methods. During this prior research, we...... developed a model for Artifact-based Software Process Improvement & Management (ArSPI). We are now carrying out studies to confirm our claims that ArSPI will provide benefits such as quality assurance. In this paper, we report on an experimental setting in which we developed and analyzed a strategy to use...... artifact models to direct process model improvement. We analyzed a process specification, the realized model, and the generated electronic process guide. We used ArSPI v0.9 as our process model and the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) as an external reference to provide a set of overall...

  14. Projection-based model reduction for contact problems

    CERN Document Server

    Balajewicz, Maciej; Farhat, Charbel

    2015-01-01

    Large scale finite element analysis requires model order reduction for computationally expensive applications such as optimization, parametric studies and control design. Although model reduction for nonlinear problems is an active area of research, a major hurdle is modeling and approximating contact problems. This manuscript introduces a projection-based model reduction approach for static and dynamic contact problems. In this approach, non-negative matrix factorization is utilized to optimally compress and strongly enforce positivity of contact forces in training simulation snapshots. Moreover, a greedy algorithm coupled with an error indicator is developed to efficiently construct parametrically robust low-order models. The proposed approach is successfully demonstrated for the model reduction of several two-dimensional elliptic and hyperbolic obstacle and self contact problems.

  15. Validation of {sup 131}I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zvonova, I., E-mail: ir_zv@bk.r [Research Institute of Radiation Hygiene, Ul. Mira 8, St. Petersburg 197101 (Russian Federation); Krajewski, P. [Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Konwaliowa 7, PL 03-194 Warsaw (Poland); Berkovsky, V. [IAEA, Wagramer Strasse 5, P.O. Box 100, A-1400 Viena (Austria); Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), P.O. Box 14, Laippatie 4, 00881 Helsinki (Finland); Duffa, C. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Centre de Cadarache, B.P. 3, 13115 Saint Paul-lez-Durance, Cedex (France); Filistovic, V. [Institute of Physics, Av. Savanoriu No. 231, LT-2300 Vilnius (Lithuania); Homma, T. [Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), 2-4 Shirakata Shirane, Tokai-mura, Ibaraki-ken 319-1195 (Japan); Kanyar, B. [University of Pannonia, Egyetem u. 10, 8200 Veszprem (Hungary); Nedveckaite, T. [Institute of Physics, Av. Savanoriu No. 231, LT-2300 Vilnius (Lithuania); Simon, S.L. [Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, 20892-7301 Bethesda, MD (United States); Vlasov, O. [Medical Radiological Research Center (MRRC RAMS), Koroleva str. 4, 249036 Obninsk, Kaluga region (Russian Federation); Webbe-Wood, D. [Food Standards Agency (FSA), Aviation House, 125 Kingsway, WC2B 6NH London (United Kingdom)

    2010-01-15

    Within the project 'Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety' (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of {sup 131}I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of {sup 137}Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and {sup 131}I/{sup 137}Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of {sup 131}I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of {sup 131}I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions. A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten.

  16. A conceptual model of psychological contracts in construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjian Ke

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The strategic importance of relationship style contracting is recognised in the construction industry. Both public and private sector clients are stipulating more integrated and collaborative forms of procurement. Despite relationship and integrated contractual arrangement being available for some time, it is clear that construction firms have been slow to adopt them. Hence it is timely to examine how social exchanges, via unwritten agreement and behaviours, are being nurtured in construction projects. This paper adopted the concept of Psychological Contracts (PC to describe unwritten agreement and behaviours. A conceptual model of the PC is developed and validated using the results from a questionnaire survey administered to construction professionals in Australia. The results uncovered the relationships that existed amongst relational conditions and relational benefits, the PC and the partners’ satisfaction. The results show that all the hypotheses in the conceptual model of the PC are supported, suggesting the PC model is important and may have an effect on project performance and relationship quality among contracting parties. A validated model of the PC in construction was then developed based on the correlations among each component. The managerial implications are that past relationships and relationship characteristics should be taken into account in the selection of procurement partners and the promise of future resources, support and tangible relational outcomes are also vital. It is important for contracting parties to pay attention to unwritten agreements (the PC and behaviours when managing construction projects.

  17. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Physics Models For Diagnostics Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    The project will use high-fidelity physics models and simulations to simulate real-time operations of cryogenic and systems and calculate the status/health of the systems. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. The capability will also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenic system operations. This project will develop and implement high-fidelity physics-based modeling techniques tosimulate the real-time operation of cryogenics and other fluids systems and, when compared to thereal-time operation of the actual systems, provide assessment of their state. Physics-modelcalculated measurements (called “pseudo-sensors”) will be compared to the system real-timedata. Comparison results will be utilized to provide systems operators with enhanced monitoring ofsystems' health and status, identify off-nominal trends and diagnose system/component failures.This capability can also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenics and other fluidsystems designs. This capability will be interfaced with the ground operations command andcontrol system as a part of the Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance (AGSM) project to helpassure system availability and mission success. The initial capability will be developed for theLiquid Oxygen (LO2) ground loading systems.

  18. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merow, Cory; Dahlgren, Johan; Metcall, C. Jessica E.;

    2014-01-01

    (e.g., environment). By combining regressions of vital rates, an IPM provides mechanistic insight into emergent ecological patterns such as population dynamics, species geographic distributions, or life history strategies. Here, we review important resources for building IPMs and provide......Integral Projection Models (IPMs) use information on how an individual's state influences its vital rates - survival, growth and reproduction - to make population projections. IPMs are constructed from regression models predicting vital rates from state variables (e.g., size or age) and covariates...... a comprehensive guide, with extensive R code, for their construction. IPMs can be applied to any stage-structured population; here we illustrate IPMs for a series of plant life histories of increasing complexity and biological realism, highlighting the utility of various regression methods for capturing...

  19. A Hybrid Program Projects Selection Model for Nonprofit TV Stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuei-Lun Chang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model to select program projects for nonprofit TV stations on the basis of managers’ perceptions. By the concept of balanced scorecard (BSC and corporate social responsibility (CSR, we collect criteria for selecting the best program project. Fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Next, considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain the weights of them. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. A case study is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model.

  20. Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Scott R.; Smith, Laurence C.

    2015-11-01

    Though climate models exhibit broadly similar agreement on key long-term trends, they have significant temporal and spatial differences due to intermodel variability. Such variability should be considered when using climate models to project the future marine Arctic. Here we present multiple scenarios of 21st-century Arctic marine access as driven by sea ice output from 10 CMIP5 models known to represent well the historical trend and climatology of Arctic sea ice. Optimal vessel transits from North America and Europe to the Bering Strait are estimated for two periods representing early-century (2011-2035) and mid-century (2036-2060) conditions under two forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5/8.5), assuming Polar Class 6 and open-water vessels with medium and no ice-breaking capability, respectively. Results illustrate that projected shipping viability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) depends critically on model choice. The eastern Arctic will remain the most reliably accessible marine space for trans-Arctic shipping by mid-century, while outcomes for the NWP are particularly model-dependent. Omitting three models (GFDL-CM3, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR), our results would indicate minimal NWP potential even for routes from North America. Furthermore, the relative importance of the NSR will diminish over time as the number of viable central Arctic routes increases gradually toward mid-century. Compared to vessel class, climate forcing plays a minor role. These findings reveal the importance of model choice in devising projections for strategic planning by governments, environmental agencies, and the global maritime industry.

  1. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Helene; Douville, Herve; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.; Tselioudis, George

    2017-01-01

    The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions 'How does the Earth system respond to forcing?' and 'What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?' and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation

  2. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Hélène; Douville, Hervé; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.; Klein, Stephen A.; Marchand, Roger; Medeiros, Brian; Pier Siebesma, A.; Skinner, Christopher B.; Stevens, Bjorn; Tselioudis, George; Tsushima, Yoko; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2017-01-01

    The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions How does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and

  3. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Helene; Douville, Herve; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.; hide

    2017-01-01

    The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions 'How does the Earth system respond to forcing?' and 'What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?' and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation

  4. Projected shell model study of band structure of 90Nb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Amit; Singh, Dhanvir; Gupta, Anuradha; Singh, Suram; Bharti, Arun

    2016-05-01

    A systematic study of two-quasiparticle bands of the odd-odd 90Nb nucleus is performed using the projected shell model approach. Yrast band with some other bands have been obtained and back-bending in moment of inertia has also been calculated and compared with the available experimental. On comparing the available experimental data, it is found that the treatment with PSM provides a satisfactory explanation of the available data.

  5. Modeling of an Electron Injector for the AWAKE Project

    CERN Document Server

    Mete, O; Apsimon, R; Burt, G; Doebert, S; Fiorito, R; Welsch, C

    2015-01-01

    Particle-in-cell simulations were performed by using PARMELA to characterise an electron injector with a booster linac for the AWAKE project in order to provide the baseline specifications required by the plasma wakefield experiments. Tolerances and errors were investigated. A 3 GHz travelling wave structure designed by using CST code. Particles were tracked by using the field maps acquired from these electromagnetic simulations. These results are pre- sented in comparison with the generic accelerating structure model within PARMELA.

  6. Non-commutative Complex Projective Spaces and the Standard Model

    OpenAIRE

    Dolan, Brian P

    2003-01-01

    The standard model fermion spectrum, including a right handed neutrino, can be obtained as a zero-mode of the Dirac operator on a space which is the product of complex projective spaces of complex dimension two and three. The construction requires the introduction of topologically non-trivial background gauge fields. By borrowing from ideas in Connes' non-commutative geometry and making the complex spaces `fuzzy' a matrix approximation to the fuzzy space allows for three generations to emerge...

  7. Lithospheric scale model of Merida Andes, Venezuela (GIAME Project)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitz, M.; Orihuela, N. D.; Klarica, S.; Gil, E.; Levander, A.; Audemard, F. A.; Mazuera, F.; Avila, J.

    2013-05-01

    Merida Andes (MA) is one of the most important orogenic belt in Venezuela and represents the northern culmination of South America Andes. During the last 60 years, several models have been proposed to explain the shallow and deep structure, using different geological, geophysical, seismological, geochemical and petrologic concepts; nevertheless, most of them have applied local observation windows, and do not represent the major structure of MA. Therefore, a multidisciplinary research group, coordinated by FUNVISIS, in close cooperation with UCV, ULA and PDVSA, is proposed in order to get the outlined goals in the project entitled GIAME ("Geociencia Integral de los Andes de MErida") was established, which aims to generate a lithospheric scale model and the development of a temporal dynamic model for the MA. As a base for lithospheric investigations of the Merida Andes, we are proposing three wide angle seismic profiles across the orogen on three representative sites, in order to determine the inner structure and its relation with the orogen's gravimetric root. To the date, there are no seismic studies at lithospheric scale which cross MA. The wide angle seismic will be complemented with the re-processing and re-interpretation of existing reflection seismic data, which will allow to establish a relationship between MA and its associated flexural basins (Maracaibo and Barinas-Apure basins). Depending on the results of the VENCORP Project (VENezuelan COntinental Reflection Profiling), which might show some reliable results about crustal features and Moho reflectors along three long seismic profiles at Caribbean Moutain system, a reflection seismic profile across the central portion of MA is proposed. Additional tasks, consisting in MA quaternary deformation studies, using research methods like neotectonics and paleoseismology, georadar, numerical modeling, cinematic GPS, SAR interferometry, thermocronology, detailed studies on regional geology, flexural modeling

  8. The Radio Language Arts Project: adapting the radio mathematics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, P R

    1985-01-01

    Kenya's Radio Language Arts Project, directed by the Academy for Educational Development in cooperation with the Kenya Institute of Education in 1980-85, sought to teach English to rural school children in grades 1-3 through use of an intensive, radio-based instructional system. Daily 1/2 hour lessons are broadcast throughout the school year and supported by teachers and print materials. The project further was aimed at testing the feasibility of adaptation of the successful Nicaraguan Radio Math Project to a new subject area. Difficulties were encountered in articulating a language curriculum with the precision required for a media-based instructional system. Also a challenge was defining the acceptable regional standard for pronunciation and grammar; British English was finally selected. An important modification of the Radio Math model concerned the role of the teacher. While Radio Math sought to reduce the teacher's responsibilities during the broadcast, Radio Language Arts teachers played an important instructional role during the English lesson broadcasts by providing translation and checks on work. Evaluations of the Radio language Arts Project suggest significant gains in speaking, listening, and reading skills as well as high levels of satisfaction on the part of parents and teachers.

  9. Integrative neural networks models for stream assessment in restoration projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gazendam, Ed; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Ackerman, Josef D.; Whiteley, Hugh

    2016-05-01

    Stream-habitat assessment for evaluation of restoration projects requires the examination of many parameters, both watershed-scale and reach-scale, to incorporate the complex non-linear effects of geomorphic, riparian, watershed and hydrologic factors on aquatic ecosystems. Rapid geomorphic assessment tools used by many jurisdictions to assess natural channel design projects seldom include watershed-level parameters, which have been shown to have a significant effect on benthic habitat in stream systems. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were developed to integrate complex non-linear relationships between the aquatic ecosystem health indices and key watershed-scale and reach-scale parameters. Physical stream parameters, based on QHEI parameters, and watershed characteristics data were collected at 112 sites on 62 stream systems located in Southern Ontario. Benthic data were collected separately and benthic invertebrate summary indices, specifically Hilsenhoff's Biotic Index (HBI) and Richness, were determined. The ANN models were trained on the randomly selected 3/4 of the dataset of 112 streams in Ontario, Canada and validated on the remaining 1/4. The R2 values for the developed ANN model predictions were 0.86 for HBI and 0.92 for Richness. Sensitivity analysis of the trained ANN models revealed that Richness was directly proportional to Erosion and Riparian Width and inversely proportional to Floodplain Quality and Substrate parameters. HBI was directly proportional to Velocity Types and Erosion and inversely proportional to Substrate, % Treed and 1:2 Year Flood Flow parameters. The ANN models can be useful tools for watershed managers in stream assessment and restoration projects by allowing consideration of watershed properties in the stream assessment.

  10. Musculoskeletal Modeling Component of the NASA Digital Astronaut Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowski, B. E.; Pennline, J. A.; Stalker, A. R.; Mulugeta, L.; Myers, J. G.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Digital Astronaut Project s (DAP) objective is to provide computational tools that support research of the physiological response to low gravity environments and analyses of how changes cause health and safety risks to the astronauts and to the success of the mission. The spaceflight risk associated with muscle atrophy is impaired performance due to reduced muscle mass, strength and endurance. Risks of early onset of osteoporosis and bone fracture are among the spaceflight risks associated with loss of bone mineral density. METHODS: Tools under development include a neuromuscular model, a biomechanical model and a bone remodeling model. The neuromuscular model will include models of neuromuscular drive, muscle atrophy, fiber morphology and metabolic processes as a function of time in space. Human movement will be modeled with the biomechanical model, using muscle and bone model parameters at various states. The bone remodeling model will allow analysis of bone turnover, loss and adaptation. A comprehensive trade study was completed to identify the current state of the art in musculoskeletal modeling. The DAP musculoskeletal models will be developed using a combination of existing commercial software and academic research codes identified in the study, which will be modified for use in human spaceflight research. These individual models are highly dependent upon each other and will be integrated together once they reach sufficient levels of maturity. ANALYSES: The analyses performed with these models will include comparison of different countermeasure exercises for optimizing effectiveness and comparison of task requirements and the state of strength and endurance of a crew member at a particular time in a mission. DISCUSSION: The DAP musculoskeletal model has the potential to complement research conducted on spaceflight induced changes to the musculoskeletal system. It can help with hypothesis formation, identification of causative mechanisms and

  11. Understanding Differences in Chemistry Climate Model Projections of Stratospheric Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, A. R.; Strahan, S. E.; Oman, L. D.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2014-01-01

    Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to project future evolution of stratospheric ozone as concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM projections exhibit not only many common features but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone return to 1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to ODS concentration change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower stratospheric ozone to chlorine change Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine is a near-linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine into its reservoirs; both inorganic chlorine and its partitioning are largely controlled by lower stratospheric transport. CCMs with best performance on transport diagnostics agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035, differences in Delta Ozone/Delta inorganic chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM projections as the anthropogenic contribution to inorganic chlorine becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change Delta Ozone/Delta T due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with its own temperature dependence. Ozone decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere caused by a projected speedup in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by ozone increases in the middle- and high-latitude lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. This balance, or lack thereof, contributes most to the spread in late 21st century projections.

  12. Projection methods for the numerical solution of Markov chain models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Youcef

    1989-01-01

    Projection methods for computing stationary probability distributions for Markov chain models are presented. A general projection method is a method which seeks an approximation from a subspace of small dimension to the original problem. Thus, the original matrix problem of size N is approximated by one of dimension m, typically much smaller than N. A particularly successful class of methods based on this principle is that of Krylov subspace methods which utilize subspaces of the form span(v,av,...,A(exp m-1)v). These methods are effective in solving linear systems and eigenvalue problems (Lanczos, Arnoldi,...) as well as nonlinear equations. They can be combined with more traditional iterative methods such as successive overrelaxation, symmetric successive overrelaxation, or with incomplete factorization methods to enhance convergence.

  13. Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

  14. Radiological Impact Assessment within the IAEA Arctic Assessment Project (IASAP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, E.M.; Gurbutt, P.; Harms, I.; Heling, R.; Kinehara, Y.; Nielsen, S.P.; Osvath, I.; Preller, R.; Sazykina, T.; Wada, A.; Sjoeblom, L

    1998-07-01

    As part of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) of IAEA, a working group was created to model the dispersal and transfer of radionuclides released from radioactive waste disposed of in the Kara Sea and bays of Novaya Zemlya and to assess the radiological impact. Existing models were extended, and new models developed to incorporate several features of the area (including ice formation and transport) which present modelling challenges. An extensive inter-model comparison involving both compartmental and 3-D hydrodynamic models was then carried out. Finally, the radiological impact was assessed based on several release scenarios prepared by the IASAP Sources working group. These included 'best estimate' release, 'plausible worst case' and 'worst case' scenarios. Collective dose as well as individual dose to identified populations were calculated. This paper reviews the models developed, highlights the general features of the inter-comparison and discusses the radiological impact assessment and conclusions based on it. (author)

  15. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  16. Projection-Based Reduced Order Modeling for Spacecraft Thermal Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Jing; Wang, Yi; Song, Hongjun; Pant, Kapil; Peabody, Hume; Ku, Jentung; Butler, Charles D.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematically rigorous, subspace projection-based reduced order modeling (ROM) methodology and an integrated framework to automatically generate reduced order models for spacecraft thermal analysis. Two key steps in the reduced order modeling procedure are described: (1) the acquisition of a full-scale spacecraft model in the ordinary differential equation (ODE) and differential algebraic equation (DAE) form to resolve its dynamic thermal behavior; and (2) the ROM to markedly reduce the dimension of the full-scale model. Specifically, proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) in conjunction with discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM) and trajectory piece-wise linear (TPWL) methods are developed to address the strong nonlinear thermal effects due to coupled conductive and radiative heat transfer in the spacecraft environment. Case studies using NASA-relevant satellite models are undertaken to verify the capability and to assess the computational performance of the ROM technique in terms of speed-up and error relative to the full-scale model. ROM exhibits excellent agreement in spatiotemporal thermal profiles (<0.5% relative error in pertinent time scales) along with salient computational acceleration (up to two orders of magnitude speed-up) over the full-scale analysis. These findings establish the feasibility of ROM to perform rational and computationally affordable thermal analysis, develop reliable thermal control strategies for spacecraft, and greatly reduce the development cycle times and costs.

  17. Projected shell model study of neutron-deficient 122Ce

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Rani Devi; B D Sehgal; S K Khosa

    2006-09-01

    The observed excited states of 122Ce nucleus have been studied in the frame-work of projected shell model (PSM). The yrast band has been studied up to spin 26 ħ. The first band crossing has been predicted above a rotational frequency of 0.4 MeV/ħ that corresponds to first backbending. The calculation reproduces the experimentally observed ground state band up to spin 14ħ. The electromagnetic quantities, transition quadrupole moments and -factors are predicted and there is a need to measure these quantities experimentally.

  18. Cross–Project Defect Prediction With Respect To Code Ownership Model: An Empirical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian Jureczko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an analysis of 83 versions of industrial, open-source and academic projects. We have empirically evaluated whether those project types constitute separate classes of projects with regard to defect prediction. Statistical tests proved that there exist significant differences between the models trained on the aforementioned project classes. This work makes the next step towards cross-project reusability of defect prediction models and facilitates their adoption, which has been very limited so far.

  19. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Hydrogeological modelling. Final Report - Volume 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Townley, L.R.; Trefry, M.G.; Barr, A.D. [CSIRO Div of Water Resources, PO Wembley, WA (Australia); Braumiller, S. [Univ of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept of Hydrology and Water Resources; Kawanishi, M. [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko-Shi, Chiba-Ken (Japan)] [and others

    1992-12-31

    This volume describes hydrogeological modelling carried out as part of the Alligator Rivers Analogue Project. Hydrogeology has played a key integrating role in the Project, largely because water movement is believed to have controlled the evolution of the Koongarra uranium Orebody and therefore affects field observations of all types at all scales. Aquifer testing described uses the concept of transmissivity in its interpretation of aquifer response to pumping. The concept of an aquifer, a layer transmitting significant quantities of water in a mainly horizontal direction, seems hard to accept in an environment as heterogeneous as that at Koongarra. But modelling of aquifers both in one dimension and two dimensionally in plan has contributed significantly to our understanding of the site. A one-dimensional model with three layers (often described as a quasi two dimensional model) was applied to flow between the Fault and Koongarra Creek. Being a transient model, this model was able to show that reverse flows can indeed occur back towards the Fault, but only if there is distributed recharge over the orebody as well as a mechanism for the Fault, or a region near the Fault, to remove water from the simulated cross-section. The model also showed clearly that the response of the three-layered system, consisting of a highly weathered zone, a fractured transmissive zone and a less conductive lower schist zone, is governed mainly by the transmissivity and storage coefficient of the middle layer. The storage coefficient of the higher layer has little effect. A two-dimensional model in plan used a description of anisotropy to show that reverse flows can also occur even without a conducting Fault. Modelling of a three-dimensional region using discrete fractures showed that it is certainly possible to simulate systems like that observed at Koongarra, but that large amounts of data are probably needed to obtain realistic descriptions of the fracture networks. Inverse modelling

  20. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meehl, G A; Covey, C; McAvaney, B; Latif, M; Stouffer, R J

    2004-08-05

    The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is designed to allow study and intercomparison of multi-model simulations of present-day and future climate. The latter are represented by idealized forcing of compounded 1% per year CO2 increase to the time of CO2 doubling near year 70 in simulations with global coupled models that contain, typically, components representing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Results from CMIP diagnostic subprojects were presented at the Second CMIP Workshop held at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, in September, 2003. Significant progress in diagnosing and understanding results from global coupled models has been made since the First CMIP Workshop in Melbourne, Australia in 1998. For example, the issue of flux adjustment is slowly fading as more and more models obtain stable multi-century surface climates without them. El Nino variability, usually about half the observed amplitude in the previous generation of coupled models, is now more accurately simulated in the present generation of global coupled models, though there are still biases in simulating the patterns of maximum variability. Typical resolutions of atmospheric component models contained in coupled models is now usually around 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude, with the ocean components often having about twice the atmospheric model resolution, with even higher resolution in the equatorial tropics. Some new-generation coupled models have atmospheric model resolutions of around 1.5 degrees latitude-longitude. Modeling groups now routinely run the CMIP control and 1% CO2 simulations in addition to 20th and 21st century climate simulations with a variety of forcings (e.g. volcanoes, solar variability, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, ozone, and greenhouse gases (GHGs), with the anthropogenic forcings for future climate as well). However, persistent systematic errors noted in previous generations of global coupled models still are present

  1. Multi-Model Combination techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Gao, X; Sorooshian, S

    2005-04-11

    This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multi-model Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.

  2. Squares of different sizes: effect of geographical projection on model parameter estimates in species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budic, Lara; Didenko, Gregor; Dormann, Carsten F

    2016-01-01

    In species distribution analyses, environmental predictors and distribution data for large spatial extents are often available in long-lat format, such as degree raster grids. Long-lat projections suffer from unequal cell sizes, as a degree of longitude decreases in length from approximately 110 km at the equator to 0 km at the poles. Here we investigate whether long-lat and equal-area projections yield similar model parameter estimates, or result in a consistent bias. We analyzed the environmental effects on the distribution of 12 ungulate species with a northern distribution, as models for these species should display the strongest effect of projectional distortion. Additionally we choose four species with entirely continental distributions to investigate the effect of incomplete cell coverage at the coast. We expected that including model weights proportional to the actual cell area should compensate for the observed bias in model coefficients, and similarly that using land coverage of a cell should decrease bias in species with coastal distribution. As anticipated, model coefficients were different between long-lat and equal-area projections. Having progressively smaller and a higher number of cells with increasing latitude influenced the importance of parameters in models, increased the sample size for the northernmost parts of species ranges, and reduced the subcell variability of those areas. However, this bias could be largely removed by weighting long-lat cells by the area they cover, and marginally by correcting for land coverage. Overall we found little effect of using long-lat rather than equal-area projections in our analysis. The fitted relationship between environmental parameters and occurrence probability differed only very little between the two projection types. We still recommend using equal-area projections to avoid possible bias. More importantly, our results suggest that the cell area and the proportion of a cell covered by land should be

  3. Multi-Model Combination Techniques for Hydrological Forecasting: Application to Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ajami, N; Duan, Q; Gao, X; Sorooshian, S

    2006-05-08

    This paper examines several multi-model combination techniques: the Simple Multimodel Average (SMA), the Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified Multi-Model Super Ensemble (M3SE) and the Weighted Average Method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multi-model combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model outputs and were compared against the best uncalibrated as well as the best calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the skill levels of the multi-model predictions. This study revealed that the multi-model predictions obtained from uncalibrated single model predictions are generally better than any single member model predictions, even the best calibrated single model predictions. Furthermore, more sophisticated multi-model combination techniques that incorporated bias correction steps work better than simple multi-model average predictions or multi-model predictions without bias correction.

  4. Can fire atlas data improve species distribution model projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Shawn M; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Mynsberge, Alison R; Safford, Hugh D

    2014-07-01

    Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in studies of climate change impacts, yet are often criticized for failing to incorporate disturbance processes that can influence species distributions. Here we use two temporally independent data sets of vascular plant distributions, climate data, and fire atlas data to examine the influence of disturbance history on SDM projection accuracy through time in the mountain ranges of California, USA. We used hierarchical partitioning to examine the influence of fire occurrence on the distribution of 144 vascular plant species and built a suite of SDMs to examine how the inclusion of fire-related predictors (fire occurrence and departure from historical fire return intervals) affects SDM projection accuracy. Fire occurrence provided the least explanatory power among predictor variables for predicting species' distributions, but provided improved explanatory power for species whose regeneration is tied closely to fire. A measure of the departure from historic fire return interval had greater explanatory power for calibrating modern SDMs than fire occurrence. This variable did not improve internal model accuracy for most species, although it did provide marginal improvement to models for species adapted to high-frequency fire regimes. Fire occurrence and fire return interval departure were strongly related to the climatic covariates used in SDM development, suggesting that improvements in model accuracy may not be expected due to limited additional explanatory power. Our results suggest that the inclusion of coarse-scale measures of disturbance in SDMs may not be necessary to predict species distributions under climate change, particularly for disturbance processes that are largely mediated by climate.

  5. Benefits of Building Information Modelling in the Project Lifecycle: Construction Projects in Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Li

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Building Information Modelling (BIM is a process involving the creation and management of objective data with property, unique identity and relationship. In the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC industry, BIM is adopted a lot in the lifecycle of buildings because of the high integration of information that it enables. Four-dimensional (4D computer-aided design (CAD has been adopted for many years to improve the construction planning process. BIM is adopted throughout buildings’ lifecycles, in design, construction and operation. This paper presents five large-scale public and financial projects that adopt BIM in the design, construction and operational phases. Different uses of BIM are compared and contrasted in the context of the separate backgrounds. It is concluded that productivity is improved where BIM is used to enable easy sharing and integration of information and convenient collaboration.

  6. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantisek Jelenciak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that -in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a dynamics viewpoint. The principle of this method is based on applying Newton's mechanics, which are then combined with a specific form of the finite element method to cover additional effects. The main advantage of the PEM is that it is not necessary to carry out measurements in a wind tunnel for the identification of the model's parameters. The plausible dynamical behaviour of the model can be achieved by specific correction parameters, which can be determined on the basis of experimental data obtained during the flight of the aircraft. In this article, we present the PEM as applied to an airship as well as a comparison of the data calculated by the PEM and experimental flight data.

  7. Dynamic habitat models: using telemetry data to project fisheries bycatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zydelis, Ramūnas; Lewison, Rebecca L; Shaffer, Scott A; Moore, Jeffrey E; Boustany, Andre M; Roberts, Jason J; Sims, Michelle; Dunn, Daniel C; Best, Benjamin D; Tremblay, Yann; Kappes, Michelle A; Halpin, Patrick N; Costa, Daniel P; Crowder, Larry B

    2011-11-01

    Fisheries bycatch is a recognized threat to marine megafauna. Addressing bycatch of pelagic species however is challenging owing to the dynamic nature of marine environments and vagility of these organisms. In order to assess the potential for species to overlap with fisheries, we propose applying dynamic habitat models to determine relative probabilities of species occurrence for specific oceanographic conditions. We demonstrate this approach by modelling habitats for Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes) using telemetry data and relating their occurrence probabilities to observations of Hawaii-based longline fisheries in 1997-2000. We found that modelled habitat preference probabilities of black-footed albatrosses were high within some areas of the fishing range of the Hawaiian fleet and such preferences were important in explaining bycatch occurrence. Conversely, modelled habitats of Laysan albatrosses overlapped little with Hawaii-based longline fisheries and did little to explain the bycatch of this species. Estimated patterns of albatross habitat overlap with the Hawaiian fleet corresponded to bycatch observations: black-footed albatrosses were more frequently caught in this fishery despite being 10 times less abundant than Laysan albatrosses. This case study demonstrates that dynamic habitat models based on telemetry data may help to project interactions with pelagic animals relative to environmental features and that such an approach can serve as a tool to guide conservation and management decisions.

  8. Genetic algorithm-based multi-objective model for scheduling of linear construction projects

    OpenAIRE

    Senouci, Ahmed B.; Al-Derham, H.R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a genetic algorithm-based multi-objective optimization model for the scheduling of linear construction projects. The model allows construction planners to generate and evaluate optimal/near-optimal construction scheduling plans that minimize both project time and cost. The computations in the present model are organized in three major modules. A scheduling module that develops practical schedules for linear construction projects. A cost module that computes the project's c...

  9. A Project-Based Model for Professional Environmental Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehan, Barry; Thomas, Ian

    2006-01-01

    The projects described in this article were designed to provide a real world situation akin to the work of environmental professionals. The projects were conducted with Australian students working on environmental issues in Vietnam. The projects demonstrated that multi-disciplinary teamwork fits well into environmental projects, and importantly…

  10. Validation and Comparison of Carbon Sequestration Project Cost Models with Project Cost Data Obtained from the Southwest Partnership

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Lee; Reid Grigg; Brian McPherson

    2011-04-15

    Obtaining formal quotes and engineering conceptual designs for carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) sequestration sites and facilities is costly and time-consuming. Frequently, when looking at potential locations, managers, engineers and scientists are confronted with multiple options, but do not have the expertise or the information required to quickly obtain a general estimate of what the costs will be without employing an engineering firm. Several models for carbon compression, transport and/or injection have been published that are designed to aid in determining the cost of sequestration projects. A number of these models are used in this study, including models by J. Ogden, MIT's Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies Program Model, the Environmental Protection Agency and others. This report uses the information and data available from several projects either completed, in progress, or conceptualized by the Southwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) to determine the best approach to estimate a project's cost. The data presented highlights calculated versus actual costs. This data is compared to the results obtained by applying several models for each of the individual projects with actual cost. It also offers methods to systematically apply the models to future projects of a similar scale. Last, the cost risks associated with a project of this scope are discussed, along with ways that have been and could be used to mitigate these risks.

  11. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Fortems-Cheney, A.; Szopa, S.; Saunois, M.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bian, H.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M.P.; Gloor, E.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S.R.; Krol, M.C.; Patra, P.K.; Prinn, R.G.; Rigby, M.; Saito, R.; Wilson, C.

    2013-01-01

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, ar

  12. Hydrogeological model of the territory of Kowsar hydraulic project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orekhov Vyacheslav Valentinovich

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical hydrogeology model of the territory of Kowsar Project was created with account for the results of the engineering surveys and hydro geological monitoring, which was conducted in the process of Kowsar Project construction. In order to create the model in the present work a universal computer system Ansys was used, which implements the finite element method and solid modeling technology, allowing to solve the filtration problem with the use of thermal analogy. The three-dimensional geometric model was built with use of the principle “hard body” modeling, which displays the main line of the territory relief, including the created water reservoir, geological structure (anticline Duk and the main lithological complexes developed within the territory. In the limestone mass As here is a zone characterized by water permeability on territory of Kowsar Project, and a layer characterized by seepage feeding, which occurs outside the considered territory. The water reservoir is a source of the change of hydro geological situation. The results of field observations witness, that the levels of underground waters within the area of the main structures reacts almost instantly on the water level change in the water reservoir; the delay period of levels change is not more than 1,5…2,0 weeks at maximum distance from the water reservoir. These particularities of the hydro geological regime allow using the steady-state scheme of the decision of forecast problems. The mass of limestone As, containing the structures of the Kowsar Project, is not homogeneous and anisotropy in its seepage characteristics. The heterogeneity is conditioned by exogenous influence on the mass up to the depth of 100…150 m. The seepage anisotropy of the mass is expressed by the difference of water permeability of the mass along and across the layers for almost one order. The structures of Kowsar Project is presented by a dam, grouting curtain on axis of the dam and

  13. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantisek Jelenciak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that - in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a dynamics viewpoint. The principle of this method is based on applying Newton's mechanics, which are then combined with a specific form of the finite element method to cover additional effects. The main advantage of the PEM is that it is not necessary to carry out measurements in a wind tunnel for the identification of the model’s parameters. The plausible dynamical behaviour of the model can be achieved by specific correction parameters, which can be determined on the basis of experimental data obtained during the flight of the aircraft. In this article, we present the PEM as applied to an airship as well as a comparison of the data calculated by the PEM and experimental flight data.

  14. Light weakly coupled axial forces: models, constraints, and projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Yonatan; Krnjaic, Gordan; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth; Tait, Tim M. P.

    2017-05-01

    We investigate the landscape of constraints on MeV-GeV scale, hidden U(1) forces with nonzero axial-vector couplings to Standard Model fermions. While the purely vector-coupled dark photon, which may arise from kinetic mixing, is a well-motivated scenario, several MeV-scale anomalies motivate a theory with axial couplings which can be UV-completed consistent with Standard Model gauge invariance. Moreover, existing constraints on dark photons depend on products of various combinations of axial and vector couplings, making it difficult to isolate the effects of axial couplings for particular flavors of SM fermions. We present a representative renormalizable, UV-complete model of a dark photon with adjustable axial and vector couplings, discuss its general features, and show how some UV constraints may be relaxed in a model with nonrenormalizable Yukawa couplings at the expense of fine-tuning. We survey the existing parameter space and the projected reach of planned experiments, briefly commenting on the relevance of the allowed parameter space to low-energy anomalies in π0 and 8Be∗ decay.

  15. Light Weakly Coupled Axial Forces: Models, Constraints, and Projections

    CERN Document Server

    Kahn, Yonatan; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth; Tait, Tim M P

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the landscape of constraints on MeV-GeV scale, hidden U(1) forces with nonzero axial-vector couplings to Standard Model fermions. While the purely vector-coupled dark photon, which may arise from kinetic mixing, is a well-motivated scenario, several MeV-scale anomalies motivate a theory with axial couplings which can be UV-completed consistent with Standard Model gauge invariance. Moreover, existing constraints on dark photons depend on products of various combinations of axial and vector couplings, making it difficult to isolate the effects of axial couplings for particular flavors of SM fermions. We present a representative renormalizable, UV-complete model of a dark photon with adjustable axial and vector couplings, discuss its general features, and show how some UV constraints may be relaxed in a model with nonrenormalizable Yukawa couplings at the expense of fine-tuning. We survey the existing parameter space and the projected reach of planned experiments, briefly commenting on the relevan...

  16. Light Weakly Coupled Axial Forces: Models, Constraints, and Projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahn, Yonatan [Princeton U.; Krnjaic, Gordan [Fermilab; Mishra-Sharma, Siddharth [Princeton U.; Tait, Tim P. [UC, Irvine

    2016-09-28

    We investigate the landscape of constraints on MeV-GeV scale, hidden U(1) forces with nonzero axial-vector couplings to Standard Model fermions. While the purely vector-coupled dark photon, which may arise from kinetic mixing, is a well-motivated scenario, several MeV-scale anomalies motivate a theory with axial couplings which can be UV-completed consistent with Standard Model gauge invariance. Moreover, existing constraints on dark photons depend on products of various combinations of axial and vector couplings, making it difficult to isolate the effects of axial couplings for particular flavors of SM fermions. We present a representative renormalizable, UV-complete model of a dark photon with adjustable axial and vector couplings, discuss its general features, and show how some UV constraints may be relaxed in a model with nonrenormalizable Yukawa couplings at the expense of fine-tuning. We survey the existing parameter space and the projected reach of planned experiments, briefly commenting on the relevance of the allowed parameter space to low-energy anomalies in pi^0 and 8-Be* decay.

  17. Flyover Modeling of Planetary Pits - Undergraduate Student Instrument Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhasin, N.; Whittaker, W.

    2015-12-01

    On the surface of the moon and Mars there are hundreds of skylights, which are collapsed holes that are believed to lead to underground caves. This research uses Vision, Inertial, and LIDAR sensors to build a high resolution model of a skylight as a landing vehicle flies overhead. We design and fabricate a pit modeling instrument to accomplish this task, implement software, and demonstrate sensing and modeling capability on a suborbital reusable launch vehicle flying over a simulated pit. Future missions on other planets and moons will explore pits and caves, led by the technology developed by this research. Sensor software utilizes modern graph-based optimization techniques to build 3D models using camera, LIDAR, and inertial data. The modeling performance was validated with a test flyover of a planetary skylight analog structure on the Masten Xombie sRLV. The trajectory profile closely follows that of autonomous planetary powered descent, including translational and rotational dynamics as well as shock and vibration. A hexagonal structure made of shipping containers provides a terrain feature that serves as an appropriate analog for the rim and upper walls of a cylindrical planetary skylight. The skylight analog floor, walls, and rim are modeled in elevation with a 96% coverage rate at 0.25m2 resolution. The inner skylight walls have 5.9cm2 color image resolution and the rims are 6.7cm2 with measurement precision superior to 1m. The multidisciplinary student team included students of all experience levels, with backgrounds in robotics, physics, computer science, systems, mechanical and electrical engineering. The team was commited to authentic scientific experimentation, and defined specific instrument requirements and measurable experiment objectives to verify successful completion.This work was made possible by the NASA Undergraduate Student Instrument Project Educational Flight Opportunity 2013 program. Additional support was provided by the sponsorship of an

  18. A Case Retrieval Projection Pursuit Model for Configuration Design of a Product Family%A Case Retrieval Projection Pursuit Model for Configuration Design of a Product Family

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Zi-rong; ZHANG Yi-fei

    2011-01-01

    The paper studies on case-based reasoning of uncertain product attributes in configuration design of a product family. Interval numbers characterize uncertain product attributes. By interpolating a number of certain values randomly to replace interval numbers and making projection pursuit analysis on source cases and target cases of expanded numbers, we can get a projection value in the optimal projection direction. Based on projection value, we can construct a case retrieval model of projection pursuit that can handle coexisting certain and uncertain product attributes. The application examples of chainsaw configuration design show that case retrieval is highly sensitive to reliable results.

  19. Cloud and Cloud Shadow Masking of High and Medium Resolution Optical Sensors- An Algorithm Inter-Comparison Example for Landsat 8

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebreton, Carole; Stelzer, Kerstin; Brockmann, Carsten; Bertels, Luc; Pringle, Nicholas; Paperin, Michael; Danne, Olaf; Knaeps, Els; Ruddick, Kevin

    2016-08-01

    Image processing for satellite water quality products requires reliable cloud and cloud shadow detection and cloud classification before atmospheric correction. Within the FP7/HIGHROC ("HIGH spatial and temporal Resolution Ocean Colour") Project, it was necessary to improve cloud detection and the cloud classification algorithms for the spatial high resolution sensors, aiming at Sentinel 2 and using Landsat 8 as a precursor. We present a comparison of three different algorithms, AFAR developed by RBINS; ACCAm created by VITO, and IDEPIX developed by Brockmann Consult. We show image comparisons and the results of the comparison using a pixel identification database (PixBox); FMASK results are also presented as reference.

  20. Literature Survey of previous research work in Models and Methodologies in Project Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ravinder Singh; Dr. Kevin Lano

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of the existing literature and research carried out in the area of project management using different models, methodologies, and frameworks. Project Management (PM) broadly means programme management, portfolio management, practice management, project management office, etc. A project management system has a set of processes, procedures, framework, methods, tools, methodologies, techniques, resources, etc. which are used to manage the full life cycle of projects. ...

  1. Projected shell model study of quasiparticle structure of arsenic isotopes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verma, Preeti; Sharma, Chetan; Singh, Suram [Department of Physics and Electronics, University of Jammu, Jammu, 180006 (India); Bharti, Arun, E-mail: arunbharti_2003@yahoo.co.in [Department of Physics and Electronics, University of Jammu, Jammu, 180006 (India); Khosa, S.K. [Department of Physics and Electronics, University of Jammu, Jammu, 180006 (India); Bhat, G.H. [Department of Physics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006 (India); Sheikh, J.A. [Department of Physics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006 (India); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States)

    2013-11-20

    Odd-mass isotopic chain of {sup 67–79}As has been studied within the context of the projected shell model. Deformed single-particle states generated by the standard Nilsson potential are used to calculate various nuclear structure properties like yrast spectra, rotational frequencies and reduced transition probabilities. The study of band structures of these As nuclei based on the band diagrams indicates the presence of multi-quasiparticle structure in the high spin realm of these nuclei. Rotational alignment phenomenon has also been studied in terms of band crossing which is understood to occur due to the rotational alignment of g{sub 9/2} neutron pair. We also have compared the results of the present calculations with the available experimental as well as the other theoretical data and an overall good agreement has been achieved between the two.

  2. Projection-type estimation for varying coefficient regression models

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Young K; Park, Byeong U; 10.3150/10-BEJ331

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we introduce new estimators of the coefficient functions in the varying coefficient regression model. The proposed estimators are obtained by projecting the vector of the full-dimensional kernel-weighted local polynomial estimators of the coefficient functions onto a Hilbert space with a suitable norm. We provide a backfitting algorithm to compute the estimators. We show that the algorithm converges at a geometric rate under weak conditions. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the estimators and show that the estimators have the oracle properties. This is done for the general order of local polynomial fitting and for the estimation of the derivatives of the coefficient functions, as well as the coefficient functions themselves. The estimators turn out to have several theoretical and numerical advantages over the marginal integration estimators studied by Yang, Park, Xue and H\\"{a}rdle [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 101 (2006) 1212--1227].

  3. On an Approach to the Design of a Logical Model of Innovation Project Data

    CERN Document Server

    Mylnikov, L; 10.3103/S0147688211030142

    2011-01-01

    Questions concerning the development of a logical model of innovation project data, as well as those concerning the design of information systems for decision?making support in the management of inno? vation projects, are discussed

  4. A Mathematical Model Based on Supply Chain Optimization for International Petrochemical Engineering Projects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Ning; Sun Wei

    2015-01-01

    Based on the study of supply chain (SC) and SC optimization in engineering projects, a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) optimization model is developed to minimize the total SC cost for international petrochemical en-gineering projects. A steam cracking project is selected and analyzed, from which typical SC characteristics in international engineering projects in the area of petrochemical industry are summarized. The MINLP model is therefore developed and applied to projects with detailed data. The optimization results are analyzed and compared by the MINLP model, indicat-ing that they are appropriate to SC management practice in engineering projects, and are consistent with the optimal price-effective strategy in procurement. As a result, the model could provide useful guidance to SC optimization of international engineering projects in petrochemical industry, and improve SC management by selecting more reliable and qualiifed part-ner enterprises in SC for the project.

  5. THE PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION MODEL OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND MANAGERIAL FEASIBILITY OF THEIR BEHAVIOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ye. Uvarov

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article the basic problem of substantiation of parameters of optimization model of organizationaltechnological solutions for investment-building projects in the system of project management is considered.

  6. Extended Model of Managing Risk in New Product Development Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dušan Gošnik

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research was to study new product development (NPDprojects-related risks and the literature in this field, as well as to developa specific extendedmodel of managing risks in npd projects, whichwill consider the nature of NPD projects. Data were collected with thehelp of the developed questionnaire, and project managers with severalyears of experience in the field of NPD projects were included. Thedata and hypotheses were tested with the use of statistical methods. Resultsof the study show that for NPD projects, it seems to be crucial toplan risks in the early stages of the project, especially focused on thedefinition of the technical requirements for the product and the relatedclear project objectives. Poorly defined technical requirements for theproduct present an important risk related with the design uncertaintyof the product. The more imprecise the technical requirements for theproduct before the project starts, the higher is the design uncertaintyof the product after its development. Unclear project objectives havea significant effect on the time-delay of npd projects. The more impreciselythe project objectives are defined before the project starts, thegreater is the time-delay on the NPD project.

  7. The Copenhagen Traffic Model and its Application in the Metro City Ring Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vuk, Goran; Overgård, Christian Hansen; Fox, J.

    2009-01-01

    In June 2007, the Danish Parliament passed an act to finance the construction of the Metro City Ring in Copenhagen. The assessment project is based on the passenger patronage forecasts for 2015 from the Copenhagen traffic model. In this paper we show how the model forecasts for this particular...... infrastructure project can be explained through detailed knowledge of model structure and model validation....

  8. Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Butler, D.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions

  9. Bidding model for sustainable projects using the traditional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... a new dimension to development processes and procurement routes. ... as such responsible for the persistent cost over-run in building construction projects. ... Estimates from 50 samples of projects were tested using analysis of variance ...

  10. An Innovative Time-Cost-Quality Tradeoff Modeling of Building Construction Project Based on Resource Allocation

    OpenAIRE

    Wenfa Hu; Xinhua He

    2014-01-01

    The time, quality, and cost are three important but contradictive objectives in a building construction project. It is a tough challenge for project managers to optimize them since they are different parameters. This paper presents a time-cost-quality optimization model that enables managers to optimize multiobjectives. The model is from the project breakdown structure method where task resources in a construction project are divided into a series of activities and further into construction l...

  11. Cross-validation analysis of bias models in Bayesian multi-model projections of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttunen, J. M. J.; Räisänen, J.; Nissinen, A.; Lipponen, A.; Kolehmainen, V.

    2017-03-01

    Climate change projections are commonly based on multi-model ensembles of climate simulations. In this paper we consider the choice of bias models in Bayesian multimodel predictions. Buser et al. (Clim Res 44(2-3):227-241, 2010a) introduced a hybrid bias model which combines commonly used constant bias and constant relation bias assumptions. The hybrid model includes a weighting parameter which balances these bias models. In this study, we use a cross-validation approach to study which bias model or bias parameter leads to, in a specific sense, optimal climate change projections. The analysis is carried out for summer and winter season means of 2 m-temperatures spatially averaged over the IPCC SREX regions, using 19 model runs from the CMIP5 data set. The cross-validation approach is applied to calculate optimal bias parameters (in the specific sense) for projecting the temperature change from the control period (1961-2005) to the scenario period (2046-2090). The results are compared to the results of the Buser et al. (Clim Res 44(2-3):227-241, 2010a) method which includes the bias parameter as one of the unknown parameters to be estimated from the data.

  12. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaron S. Epiney; Robert A. Kinoshita; Jong Suk Kim; Cristian Rabiti; M. Scott Greenwood

    2016-09-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  13. The CTQ flowdown as a conceptual model of project objectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. de Koning; J. de Mast

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe and clarify a tool that is at the core of the definition phase of most quality improvement projects. This tool is called the critical to quality (CTQ) flowdown. It relates high-level strategic focal points to project objectives. In their turn project object

  14. Building an Experiential Learning Model for a Project Management Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kuan C.; Chuang, Keh-Wen

    2009-01-01

    Teaching students to become project management professionals requires a real world experience. Incorporating live clients into student projects, instead of using case studies or mock companies, adds a dimension that exposes students to the realities of project management. This paper will describe a structured methodology used in a project…

  15. Research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yucheng Zeng

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to build enterprise project culture evaluation model and search for the best evaluation method for Chinese enterprise project culture on the basis of studying and drawing lessons from enterprise culture evaluation theory and method at home and abroad. Design/methodology/approach: Referring to the Denison enterprise culture evaluation model, this paper optimizes it according to the difference of enterprise project culture, designs the enterprise project culture evaluation model and proves the practicability of the model through empirical. Finding: This paper finds that it`s more applicable to use the Denison model for enterprise project culture evaluation through the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign enterprise culture evaluation theory and method, the systematic project culture management framework of Chinese enterprises has not yet formed through empirical research, and four factors in enterprise project culture have important influence on project operation performance improvement. Research limitations/implications: The research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model is a preliminary attempt, the design of evaluation index system, evaluation model and scale structure also need to be improved, but the thinking of this paper in this field provides a valuable reference for future research. Practical Implications: This paper provides the support of theory and practice for evaluating the present situation of enterprise project culture construction and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of project culture, which contributes to the "dialectical therapy" of enterprise project management, enterprise management and enterprise project culture construction. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of Denison enterprise culture model. Combining with the actual situation of enterprises, this paper also builds the evaluation model for

  16. RTMOD: Real-Time MODel evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graziani, G; Galmarini, S. [Joint Research centre, Ispra (Italy); Mikkelsen, T. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept. (Denmark)

    2000-01-01

    The 1998 - 1999 RTMOD project is a system based on an automated statistical evaluation for the inter-comparison of real-time forecasts produced by long-range atmospheric dispersion models for national nuclear emergency predictions of cross-boundary consequences. The background of RTMOD was the 1994 ETEX project that involved about 50 models run in several Institutes around the world to simulate two real tracer releases involving a large part of the European territory. In the preliminary phase of ETEX, three dry runs (i.e. simulations in real-time of fictitious releases) were carried out. At that time, the World Wide Web was not available to all the exercise participants, and plume predictions were therefore submitted to JRC-Ispra by fax and regular mail for subsequent processing. The rapid development of the World Wide Web in the second half of the nineties, together with the experience gained during the ETEX exercises suggested the development of this project. RTMOD featured a web-based user-friendly interface for data submission and an interactive program module for displaying, intercomparison and analysis of the forecasts. RTMOD has focussed on model intercomparison of concentration predictions at the nodes of a regular grid with 0.5 degrees of resolution both in latitude and in longitude, the domain grid extending from 5W to 40E and 40N to 65N. Hypothetical releases were notified around the world to the 28 model forecasters via the web on a one-day warning in advance. They then accessed the RTMOD web page for detailed information on the actual release, and as soon as possible they then uploaded their predictions to the RTMOD server and could soon after start their inter-comparison analysis with other modelers. When additional forecast data arrived, already existing statistical results would be recalculated to include the influence by all available predictions. The new web-based RTMOD concept has proven useful as a practical decision-making tool for realtime

  17. Benefit Evaluation Model of Small Watershed Control Based on Projection Pursuit

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A projection pursuit model is presented in this paper for comprehensive evaluation of benefits of small watershed control. By using the model ,small watershed control samples with many benefit evaluation indexes can be synthesized projective values with one dimension. The samples can be naturally evaluated according to the projective values. The parameters of the model is optimized by using real coding beased accelerating genetic aglrothm,which overcomes the shortcomings of large computation amount and difficulty of computer programming in traditional projection prusuit methods,and provides a new way for wide applications of projection pursuit technique to different evaluation problems in agricultural systems engineering.

  18. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  19. A project-centered undergraduate geoscience curriculum model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelso, P.; Brown, L.

    2003-04-01

    Lake Superior State University, a comprehensive rural public university with approximately 10% Native-Americans enrolled, located in Michigan's eastern Upper Peninsula, U.S.A., has redesigned it's undergraduate geology major by developing an entire curriculum around a project-centered integration of geoscience sub-disciplines. Our model, adapted from modern educational theory, advocates sub-discipline integration by implementing problem-based learning through coursework that develops students' intellectual skills and engages them in using complex reasoning in real-world contexts. Students in this new curriculum will actively discover how to learn about a new geologic province, what questions to ask in approaching problems, where and how to find answers, and how to apply knowledge to solving problems. To accomplish our goals, we redesigned our pedagogy for all courses by creating active learning environments including cooperative learning, jigsaw methodologies, debates, investigation oriented laboratories, use of case studies, writing and communication intensive exercises, and research experiences. Fundamental sub-discipline concepts were identified by our national survey and are presented in the context of sequentially ordered problems that reflect increasing geological complexity. All courses above first year incorporate significant field experience. Our lower division courses include a two semester sequence of physical and historical geology in which physical processes are discussed in the context of their historical extension and one semester of structure/tectonics and mineralogy/petrology. The lower division culminates with a three week introductory field geology course. Our upper division courses include hydrologic systems, environmental systems, geochemical systems, tectonic systems, geophysical systems, clastic systems, carbonate systems, two seminar courses, and advanced field geology. The two field courses, offered in different geologic provinces, provide

  20. Integrating fire with hydrological projections: model evaluation to identify uncertainties and tradeoffs in model complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, M.; McKenzie, D.

    2013-12-01

    It is imperative for resource managers to understand how a changing climate might modify future watershed and hydrological processes, and such an understanding is incomplete if disturbances such as fire are not integrated with hydrological projections. Can a robust fire spread model be developed that approximates patterns of fire spread in response to varying topography wind patterns, and fuel loads and moistures, without requiring intensive calibration to each new study area or time frame? We assessed the performance of a stochastic model of fire spread (WMFire), integrated with the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys), for projecting the effects of climatic change on mountain watersheds. We first use Monte Carlo inference to determine that the fire spread model is able to replicate the spatial pattern of fire spread for a contemporary wildfire in Washington State (the Tripod fire), measured by the lacunarity and fractal dimension of the fire. We then integrate a version of WMFire able to replicate the contemporary wildfire with RHESSys and simulate a New Mexico watershed over the calibration period of RHESSys (1941-1997). In comparing the fire spread model to a single contemporary wildfire we found issues in parameter identifiability for several of the nine parameters, due to model input uncertainty and insensitivity of the mathematical function to certain ranges of the parameter values. Model input uncertainty is caused by the inherent difficulty in reconstructing fuel loads and fuel moistures for a fire event after the fire has occurred, as well as by issues in translating variables relevant to hydrological processes produced by the hydrological model to those known to affect fire spread and fire severity. The first stage in the model evaluation aided the improvement of the model in both of these regards. In transporting the model to a new landscape in order to evaluate fire regimes in addition to patterns of fire spread, we find reasonable

  1. Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models: SOIL CARBON MODELING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Yiqi; Ahlstrom, Anders; Allison, Steven D.; Batjes, Niels H.; Brovkin, Victor; Carvalhais, N.; Chappell, Adrian; Ciais, Philippe; Davidson, Eric A.; Finzi, Adien; Georgiou, Katerina; Guenet, Bertrand; Hararuk, Oleksandra; Harden, Jennifer W.; He, Yujie; Hopkins, Francesca; Jiang, Lifen; Koven, C.; Jackson, Robert B.; Jones, Chris D.; Lara, Mark J.; Liang, Junyi; McGuire, A. David; Parton, William J.; Peng, Changhui; Randerson, J.; Salazar, Alejandro; Sierra , Carlos A.; Smith, Matthew J.; Tian, Hanqin; Todd-Brown, Katherine EO; Torn, Margaret S.; van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Wang, Ying Ping; West, Tristram O.; Wei, Yaxing; Wieder, William R.; Xia, Jianyang; Xu, Xia; Xu, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Tao

    2016-01-21

    Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs) and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the 3rd to 5th assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. Firstly, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by 1st-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic SOC dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Secondly, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool- and flux-based datasets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Thirdly, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. We recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable datasets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and

  2. IS Project Management and Risk Escalation: Towards A Dynamic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Y Lin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available While the number of substantive investments in IS projects continues to grow, the number of failing projects also continues to increase at an alarming rate. Both the academic and industry literature suggests that inadequate attention to risk and its management continues to be a key factor in project failure. The typical approach taken is to identify and map potential risks, to act as a planning and diagnostic tool, and to prepare a contingency plan has been a factor-based approach. While it remains a valuable tool for mapping anticipated risks the factor-based approach is less effective when viewing project risks as emergent phenomena that un-fold during the course of the project, and require ongoing attention and risk management. In-formed by a case study of a failing university IS development project, this paper focuses on the phenomenon of risk escalation. The case findings suggest that rather than being defined ahead of the project, some project risks may emerge during the project as a consequence of escalation factors that were both antecedent to and a consequence of actual risk management decisions. The article concludes with suggestions as to how project managers can better man-age the emergent rather than static nature of risk phenomena.

  3. Multi-dimensional project management models for mega-construction companies and their applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    China is undertaking an increasing number of mega-infrastructure projects along with its rapid economic expansion.For participants in these projects,understand how to adapt the proper and efficient management strategies is critical.In this paper,we propose three distinct models for companies under various background and management requirements,based on sophisticated data analysis and model development.Moreover,we successfully committed these models with hydropower development projects and achieved a great progress in enhancing management efficiency.

  4. Potential Improvement of Building Information Modeling (BIM) Implementation in Malaysian Construction Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Latiffi, Aryani,; Mohd, Suzila; Rakiman, Umol,

    2015-01-01

    Part 4: Building Information Modeling (BIM); International audience; Application of building information modeling (BIM), such as preview design clashes and visualize project’s model increase effectiveness in managing construction projects. However, its implementation in Malaysian construction projects is slow in order to see and gain the benefits. Therefore, this paper aims to explore on potential improvement that could increase BIM implementation in construction projects. A literature review...

  5. Roles and Responsibilities of Construction Players in Projects Using Building Information Modeling (BIM)

    OpenAIRE

    Latiffi, Aryani,; Brahim, Juliana; Fathi, Mohamad,

    2015-01-01

    Part 4: Building Information Modeling (BIM); International audience; Building Information Modeling (BIM) has been implemented in construction projects to overcome problems such as project delay, cost overrun and poor quality of project. BIM enhances construction player to perform their activities in effective and efficient through the development of three dimensional (3D) model. However, BIM requires changes in current practices among construction players in terms of the processes and technol...

  6. Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

    2017-07-01

    Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

  7. Analysis and inter-comparison of energy yield of wind turbines in Pakistan using detailed hourly and per minute recorded data sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makkawi, A.; Tham, Y.; Muneer, T. [School of Engineering and Built Environment, Napier Univ., Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Asif, M. [School of Engineering and Built Environment, Glasgow Caledonian Univ., Glasgow (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Within Pakistan the rather ease of availability of hydrocarbon gas reserves in Balochistan had the effect of delaying the work on feasibility of renewable energy and installation of appropriate pilot projects. However, with a clear sign of depletion of fossil fuels the present government has initiated a major programme of wind speed measurement and installation of large wind farms at locations that have been deemed fit for this purpose. The key force behind the present resurgence of renewable energy activity within Pakistan is the creation of the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB), established by the Government of Pakistan in 2003. Under the aegis of AEDB wind speed data have been measured over a period of 4 years at a minute's frequency for Southern Pakistan at Gharo. The period of measurement was May 2002-June 2006. The present work aims to explore the potential for using hourly- as opposed to minute-by-minute data for the design of wind energy systems, the former set being much more widely available for a larger number of locations within the developing world. This work has therefore centred on finding the difference in the wind energy production by using: (a) a measured long-term, minute-by-minute data, and comparing this with (b) a concurrent hourly data set. Furthermore, a comparison of the cumulative frequency of wind speed from the latter data sets has also been carried out. It was found that the difference between the annual energy outputs from the latter two data sets was in close agreement with only a % difference. The two cumulative frequency functions were also found to be closely related. These results may be of use for locations close to the equatorial belt where the wind regime is noted for its stable and seasonal character. (author)

  8. A Modified Theta Projection Model for Creep Behavior of Metals and Alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Manish; Singh, I. V.; Mishra, B. K.; Ahmad, S.; Venugopal Rao, A.; Kumar, Vikas

    2016-09-01

    In this work, a modified theta projection model is proposed for the constitutive modeling of creep behavior of metals and alloys. In the conventional theta projection model, strain hardening exponent is a function of time and theta, whereas in the modified theta projection model, the exponent is taken as a function of time, theta, and applied stress. The results obtained by the modified theta projection model for Al 2124 T851 alloy at constant uniaxial tensile stress are compared with the experimental results and with the predictions of the conventional theta projection method. The creep behavior of Al 7075 T651 alloy is also predicted using modified and conventional theta projection model and compared with the available experimental data. It is observed that the modified theta projection model captures the creep behavior more accurately as compared to the conventional theta projection model. The modified theta projection model can be used to predict the creep strain of pure metals and class M alloys (similar creep behavior to pure metals) for intermediate range of stress and temperature.

  9. Relating harmonic and projective descriptions of N=2 nonlinear sigma models

    CERN Document Server

    Butter, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Recent papers have established the relationship between projective superspace and a complexified version of harmonic superspace. We extend this construction to the case of general nonlinear sigma models in both frameworks. Using an analogy with Hamiltonian mechanics, we demonstrate how the Hamiltonian structure of the harmonic model and the symplectic structure of the projective model naturally arise from a single unifying action on a complexified version of harmonic superspace. This links the harmonic and projective descriptions of hyperkahler target spaces. For two examples, we show how to derive the projective superspace solutions for the Taub-NUT and Eguchi-Hanson models from the harmonic superspace solutions.

  10. A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman

    2015-12-01

    The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

  11. Inter-comparison of four remote sensing based surface energy balance methods to retrieve surface evapotranspiration and water stress of irrigated fields in semi-arid climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Chirouze

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Remotely sensed surface temperature can provide a good proxy for water stress level and is therefore particularly useful to estimate spatially distributed evapotranspiration. Instantaneous stress levels or instantaneous latent heat flux are deduced from the surface energy balance equation constrained by this equilibrium temperature. Pixel average surface temperature depends on two main factors: stress and vegetation fraction cover. Methods estimating stress vary according to the way they treat each factor. Two families of methods can be defined: the contextual methods, where stress levels are scaled on a given image between hot/dry and cool/wet pixels for a particular vegetation cover, and single-pixel methods which evaluate latent heat as the residual of the surface energy balance for one pixel independently from the others. Four models, two contextual (S-SEBI and a triangle method, inspired by Moran et al., 1994 and two single-pixel (TSEB, SEBS are applied at seasonal scale over a four by four km irrigated agricultural area in semi-arid northern Mexico. Their performances, both at local and spatial standpoints, are compared relatively to energy balance data acquired at seven locations within the area, as well as a more complex soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer model forced with true irrigation and rainfall data. Stress levels are not always well retrieved by most models, but S-SEBI as well as TSEB, although slightly biased, show good performances. Drop in model performances is observed when vegetation is senescent, mostly due to a poor partitioning both between turbulent fluxes and between the soil/plant components of the latent heat flux and the available energy. As expected, contextual methods perform well when extreme hydric and vegetation conditions are encountered in the same image (therefore, esp. in spring and early summer while they tend to exaggerate the spread in water status in more homogeneous conditions (esp. in winter.

  12. Inter-comparison of four remote sensing based surface energy balance methods to retrieve surface evapotranspiration and water stress of irrigated fields in semi-arid climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirouze, J.; Boulet, G.; Jarlan, L.; Fieuzal, R.; Rodriguez, J. C.; Ezzahar, J.; Er-Raki, S.; Bigeard, G.; Merlin, O.; Garatuza-Payan, J.; Watts, C.; Chehbouni, G.

    2013-01-01

    Remotely sensed surface temperature can provide a good proxy for water stress level and is therefore particularly useful to estimate spatially distributed evapotranspiration. Instantaneous stress levels or instantaneous latent heat flux are deduced from the surface energy balance equation constrained by this equilibrium temperature. Pixel average surface temperature depends on two main factors: stress and vegetation fraction cover. Methods estimating stress vary according to the way they treat each factor. Two families of methods can be defined: the contextual methods, where stress levels are scaled on a given image between hot/dry and cool/wet pixels for a particular vegetation cover, and single-pixel methods which evaluate latent heat as the residual of the surface energy balance for one pixel independently from the others. Four models, two contextual (S-SEBI and a triangle method, inspired by Moran et al., 1994) and two single-pixel (TSEB, SEBS) are applied at seasonal scale over a four by four km irrigated agricultural area in semi-arid northern Mexico. Their performances, both at local and spatial standpoints, are compared relatively to energy balance data acquired at seven locations within the area, as well as a more complex soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer model forced with true irrigation and rainfall data. Stress levels are not always well retrieved by most models, but S-SEBI as well as TSEB, although slightly biased, show good performances. Drop in model performances is observed when vegetation is senescent, mostly due to a poor partitioning both between turbulent fluxes and between the soil/plant components of the latent heat flux and the available energy. As expected, contextual methods perform well when extreme hydric and vegetation conditions are encountered in the same image (therefore, esp. in spring and early summer) while they tend to exaggerate the spread in water status in more homogeneous conditions (esp. in winter).

  13. Literature Survey of previous research work in Models and Methodologies in Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ravinder Singh

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a survey of the existing literature and research carried out in the area of project management using different models, methodologies, and frameworks. Project Management (PM broadly means programme management, portfolio management, practice management, project management office, etc. A project management system has a set of processes, procedures, framework, methods, tools, methodologies, techniques, resources, etc. which are used to manage the full life cycle of projects. This also means to create risk, quality, performance, and other management plans to monitor and manage the projects efficiently and effectively.

  14. Inter-comparison between HERMESv2.0 and TNO-MACC-II emission data using the CALIOPE air quality system (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara, Marc; Pay, María Teresa; Martínez, Francesc; Soret, Albert; Denier van der Gon, Hugo; Baldasano, José M.

    2014-12-01

    This work examines and compares the performance of two emission datasets on modelling air quality concentrations for Spain: (i) the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emissions System (HERMESv2.0) and (ii) the TNO-MACC-II emission inventory. For this purpose, the air quality system CALIOPE-AQFS (WRF-ARW/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b) was run over Spain for February and June 2009 using the two emission datasets (4 km × 4 km and 1 h). Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), Ozone (O3) and particular matter (PM10) modelled concentrations were compared with measurements at different type of air quality stations (i.e. rural background, urban, suburban industrial). A preliminary emission comparison showed significant discrepancies between the two datasets, highlighting an overestimation of industrial emissions in urban areas when using TNO-MACC-II. However, simulations showed similar performances of both emission datasets in terms of air quality. Modelled NO2 concentrations were similar between both datasets at the background stations, although TNO-MACC-II presented lower underestimations due to differences in industrial, other mobile sources and residential emissions. At Madrid urban stations NO2 was significantly underestimated in both cases despite the fact that HERMESv2.0 estimates traffic emissions using a more local information and detailed methodology. This NO2 underestimation problem was not found in Barcelona due to the influence of international shipping emissions located in the coastline. An inadequate characterization of some TNO-MACC-II's point sources led to high SO2 biases at industrial stations, especially in northwest Spain where large facilities are grouped. In general, surface O3 was overestimated regardless of the emission dataset used, depicting the problematic of CMAQ on overestimating low ozone at night. On the other hand, modelled PM10 concentrations were less underestimated in urban areas when applying HERMESv2.0 due to the inclusion of road dust

  15. Parametric Anatomical Modeling: a method for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyka, Martin; Klatt, Sebastian; Cheng, Sen

    2014-01-01

    Computational models of neural networks can be based on a variety of different parameters. These parameters include, for example, the 3d shape of neuron layers, the neurons' spatial projection patterns, spiking dynamics and neurotransmitter systems. While many well-developed approaches are available to model, for example, the spiking dynamics, there is a lack of approaches for modeling the anatomical layout of neurons and their projections. We present a new method, called Parametric Anatomical Modeling (PAM), to fill this gap. PAM can be used to derive network connectivities and conduction delays from anatomical data, such as the position and shape of the neuronal layers and the dendritic and axonal projection patterns. Within the PAM framework, several mapping techniques between layers can account for a large variety of connection properties between pre- and post-synaptic neuron layers. PAM is implemented as a Python tool and integrated in the 3d modeling software Blender. We demonstrate on a 3d model of the hippocampal formation how PAM can help reveal complex properties of the synaptic connectivity and conduction delays, properties that might be relevant to uncover the function of the hippocampus. Based on these analyses, two experimentally testable predictions arose: (i) the number of neurons and the spread of connections is heterogeneously distributed across the main anatomical axes, (ii) the distribution of connection lengths in CA3-CA1 differ qualitatively from those between DG-CA3 and CA3-CA3. Models created by PAM can also serve as an educational tool to visualize the 3d connectivity of brain regions. The low-dimensional, but yet biologically plausible, parameter space renders PAM suitable to analyse allometric and evolutionary factors in networks and to model the complexity of real networks with comparatively little effort.

  16. Transistor roadmap projection using predictive full-band atomistic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salmani-Jelodar, M., E-mail: m.salmani@gmail.com; Klimeck, G. [Network for Computational Nanotechnology and School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana 47907 (United States); Kim, S. [Intel Corporation, 2501 Northwest 229th Avenue, Hillsboro, Oregon 97124 (United States); Ng, K. [Semiconductor Research Corporation (SRC), 1101 Slater Rd, Durham, North Carolina 27703 (United States)

    2014-08-25

    In this letter, a full band atomistic quantum transport tool is used to predict the performance of double gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) over the next 15 years for International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS). As MOSFET channel lengths scale below 20 nm, the number of atoms in the device cross-sections becomes finite. At this scale, quantum mechanical effects play an important role in determining the device characteristics. These quantum effects can be captured with the quantum transport tool. Critical results show the ON-current degradation as a result of geometry scaling, which is in contrast to previous ITRS compact model calculations. Geometric scaling has significant effects on the ON-current by increasing source-to-drain (S/D) tunneling and altering the electronic band structure. By shortening the device gate length from 20 nm to 5.1 nm, the ratio of S/D tunneling current to the overall subthreshold OFF-current increases from 18% to 98%. Despite this ON-current degradation by scaling, the intrinsic device speed is projected to increase at a rate of at least 8% per year as a result of the reduction of the quantum capacitance.

  17. A New Teaching Model For The Subject Of Software Project Management

    CERN Document Server

    Qureshi, M Rizwan Jameel; Nadeem, Muhammad; Mehmood, Asif

    2012-01-01

    Software (SW) development is a very tough task which requires a skilled project leader for its success. If the project leader is not skilled enough then project may fail. In the real world of SW engineering 65% of the SW projects fail to meet their objectives as in [1]. The main reason is lack of training of the project mangers. This extreme ratio of failure can be reduced by teaching SW project management (SPM) to the future project managers in the practical manner, so that they may be skillful enough to handle the project in a better way. This paper intends to propose a model to be used to teach SPM to the student of SW engineering to reduce the failure rate of projects.

  18. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  19. A Revised Model for Valuation and Selection of R&D Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohammad, Ali Naef; Kristiansen, Jimmi Normann

    project portfolio. We describe an R&D selection model which integrates valuation and selection through a multi-stage approach. We develop an integrated model of R&D selection and discuss the four subsequent stages of R&D project valuation and selection. Our consolidated effort on R&D project valuation...... brings about a comprehensive understanding of the consequences for optimal project selection for portfolios, and our propositions add numerous insights on what areas should be considered for R&D portfolio optimization.......Our research proposes an R&D project selection model which has been developed through a comprehensive literature review on financial valuation and selection of R&D projects. The findings contribute directly to the understanding of optimal choices for project compositions in firms‘ innovation...

  20. Model Diagnostics for the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs

  1. The Analysis of Several Models of Investment Value of Logistics Project Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Qiu Cheng Zhou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of the logistics project evaluation model features reviews the traditional value evaluation model. On the basis of this, using the fuzzy theory, we establish several logistics project evaluation models under fuzzy environment. The analysis of the respective characteristics and the comparison of the calculated results of the three models show that these models are important methods of investment value of logistics evaluation.

  2. On Projection-Based Model Reduction of Biochemical Networks Part I: The Deterministic Case

    OpenAIRE

    Sootla, Aivar; Anderson, James

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of model reduction for dynamical system models that describe biochemical reaction networks. Inherent in such models are properties such as stability, positivity and network structure. Ideally these properties should be preserved by model reduction procedures, although traditional projection based approaches struggle to do this. We propose a projection based model reduction algorithm which uses generalised block diagonal Gramians to preserve structure and posit...

  3. Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, Kevin J.; Meyer, Joe; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; DeSchamphelaere, Karl; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Steve; Mebane, Christopher A.; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C.; Santore, Robert C.; Tipping, Edward

    2015-01-01

    As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

  4. Inter-comparison of Seasonal Variation, Chemical Characteristics, and Source Identification of Atmospheric Fine Particles on Both Sides of the Taiwan Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tsung-Chang; Yuan, Chung-Shin; Huang, Hu-Ching; Lee, Chon-Lin; Wu, Shui-Ping; Tong, Chuan

    2016-01-01

    The spatiotemporal distribution and chemical composition of atmospheric fine particles in areas around the Taiwan Strait were firstly investigated. Fine particles (PM2.5) were simultaneously collected at two sites on the west-side, one site at an offshore island, and three sites on the east-side of the Taiwan Strait in 2013–2014. Field sampling results indicated that the average PM2.5 concentrations at the west-side sampling sites were generally higher than those at the east-side sampling sites. In terms of chemical composition, the most abundant water-soluble ionic species of PM2.5 were SO42−, NO3−, and NH4+, while natural crustal elements dominated the metallic content of PM2.5, and the most abundant anthropogenic metals of PM2.5 were Pb, Ni and Zn. Moreover, high OC/EC ratios of PM2.5 were commonly observed at the west-side sampling sites, which are located at the downwind of major stationary sources. Results from CMB receptor modeling showed that the major sources of PM2.5 were anthropogenic sources and secondary aerosols at the both sides, and natural sources dominated PM2.5 at the offshore site. A consistent decrease of secondary sulfate and nitrate contribution to PM2.5 suggested the transportation of aged particles from the west-side to the east-side of the Taiwan Strait. PMID:26973085

  5. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  6. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    OpenAIRE

    Van Zyl, G.; P Venier

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices i...

  7. Technological Innovation Projects: Proposal For an Integrative Model Between Project Management and Knowledge Management in a Customer-Supplier Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edval da Silva Tavares

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In face of strong competition, companies in Brazil have increased their financial investments in automation, offering new products and services and reducing operating costs. These companies are focusing their efforts on core competencies and, therefore, they often lack the internal expertise to implement new projects, especially those that bring technological innovation. For this reason, we use the processes of outsourcing or subcontracting to help implement such projects. The unit of analysis in this study is the project and the object of the study to analyze the process of knowledge transfer from a provider to a customer during the duration of the project, which involves new technologies. The main motivation of this work is to address the acquisition and retention of new knowledge related to projects designed for business customers. We have developed a study of three cases of multiple financial firms that buy new technologies and two suppliers of information technology. As a practical result, a management model of knowledge transfer and retention of knowledge in client companies is proposed and incorporated into project management.

  8. Collaborative Project. A Flexible Atmospheric Modeling Framework for the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gettelman, Andrew [University Corporation For Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-10-01

    In this project we have been upgrading the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), also known as Super-Parameterized CAM (SP-CAM). This has included a major effort to update the coding standards and interface with CAM so that it can be placed on the main development trunk. It has also included development of a new software structure for CAM to be able to handle sub-grid column information. These efforts have formed the major thrust of the work.

  9. Semi-structured data extraction and modelling: the WIA Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Mosca

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decades, the amount of data of all kinds available electronically has increased dramatically. Data are accessible through a range of interfaces including Web browsers, database query languages, application-specific interfaces, built on top of a number of different data exchange formats. All these data span from un-structured to highly structured data. Very often, some of them have structure even if the structure is implicit, and not as rigid or regular as that found in standard database systems. Spreadsheet documents are prototypical in this respect. Spreadsheets are the lightweight technology able to supply companies with easy to build business management and business intelligence applications, and business people largely adopt spreadsheets as smart vehicles for data files generation and sharing. Actually, the more spreadsheets grow in complexity (e.g., their use in product development plans and quoting, the more their arrangement, maintenance, and analysis appear as a knowledge-driven activity. The algorithmic approach to the problem of automatic data structure extraction from spreadsheet documents (i.e., grid-structured and free topological-related data emerges from the WIA project: Worksheets Intelligent Analyser. The WIA-algorithm shows how to provide a description of spreadsheet contents in terms of higher level of abstractions or conceptualisations. In particular, the WIA-algorithm target is about the extraction of i the calculus work-flow implemented in the spreadsheets formulas and ii the logical role played by the data which take part into the calculus. The aim of the resulting conceptualisations is to provide spreadsheets with abstract representations useful for further model refinements and optimizations through evolutionary algorithms computations.

  10. Chemistry and Climate in Asia - An Earth System Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Massie, S. T.; Pfister, G.; Romero Lankao, P.; Lamarque, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. We are developing an integrated inter-disciplinary program to focus on Asia, its climate, air quality, and impact on humans that will include connections with hydrology, ecosystems, extreme weather events, and human health. The primary goal of this project is to create a team to identify key scientific questions and establish networks of specialists to create a plan for future studies to address these questions. A second goal is to establish research facilities and a framework for investigating chemistry and climate over Asia. These facilities include producing high resolution Earth System Model simulations that have been evaluated with meteorological and chemical measurements, producing high-resolution emission inventories, analyzing satellite data, and analyzing the vulnerability of humans to air quality and extreme natural events. In this presentation we will describe in more detail these activities and discuss a future workshop on the impact of chemistry in climate on air quality and human health.

  11. Evaluating the performance of commonly used gas analysers for methane eddy covariance flux measurements: the InGOS inter-comparison field experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Peltola

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of eight fast-response methane (CH4 gas analysers suitable for eddy covariance flux measurements were tested at a grassland site near the Cabauw tall tower (Netherlands during June 2012. The instruments were positioned close to each other in order to minimize the effect of varying turbulent conditions. The moderate CH4 fluxes observed at the location, of the order of 25 nmol m−2 s−1, provided a suitable signal for testing the instruments' performance. Generally, all analysers tested were able to quantify the concentration fluctuations at the frequency range relevant for turbulent exchange and were able to deliver high-quality data. The tested cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS instruments from Picarro, models G2311-f and G1301-f, were superior to other CH4 analysers with respect to instrumental noise. As an open-path instrument susceptible to the effects of rain, the LI-COR LI-7700 achieved lower data coverage and also required larger density corrections; however, the system is especially useful for remote sites that are restricted in power availability. In this study the open-path LI-7700 results were compromised due to a data acquisition problem in our data-logging setup. Some of the older closed-path analysers tested do not measure H2O vapour concentrations alongside CH4 (i.e. FMA1 and DLT-100 by Los Gatos Research and this complicates data processing since the required corrections for dilution and spectroscopic interactions have to be based on external information. To overcome this issue, we used H2O mole fractions measured by other gas analysers, adjusted them with different methods and then applied them to correct the CH4 fluxes. Following this procedure we estimated a bias on the order of 0.1 g (CH4 m−2 (8% of the measured mean flux in the processed and corrected CH4 fluxes on a monthly scale due to missing H2O concentration measurements. Finally, cumulative CH4 fluxes over 14 days from three closed-path gas

  12. Evaluating the performance of commonly used gas analysers for methane eddy covariance flux measurements: the InGOS inter-comparison field experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltola, O.; Hensen, A.; Helfter, C.; Belelli Marchesini, L.; Bosveld, F. C.; van den Bulk, W. C. M.; Elbers, J. A.; Haapanala, S.; Holst, J.; Laurila, T.; Lindroth, A.; Nemitz, E.; Röckmann, T.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Mammarella, I.

    2014-06-01

    The performance of eight fast-response methane (CH4) gas analysers suitable for eddy covariance flux measurements were tested at a grassland site near the Cabauw tall tower (Netherlands) during June 2012. The instruments were positioned close to each other in order to minimise the effect of varying turbulent conditions. The moderate CH4 fluxes observed at the location, of the order of 25 nmol m-2 s-1, provided a suitable signal for testing the instruments' performance. Generally, all analysers tested were able to quantify the concentration fluctuations at the frequency range relevant for turbulent exchange and were able to deliver high-quality data. The tested cavity ringdown spectrometer (CRDS) instruments from Picarro, models G2311-f and G1301-f, were superior to other CH4 analysers with respect to instrumental noise. As an open-path instrument susceptible to the effects of rain, the LI-COR LI-7700 achieved lower data coverage and also required larger density corrections; however, the system is especially useful for remote sites that are restricted in power availability. In this study the open-path LI-7700 results were compromised due to a data acquisition problem in our data-logging setup. Some of the older closed-path analysers tested do not measure H2O concentrations alongside CH4 (i.e. FMA1 and DLT-100 by Los Gatos Research) and this complicates data processing since the required corrections for dilution and spectroscopic interactions have to be based on external information. To overcome this issue, we used H2O mole fractions measured by other gas analysers, adjusted them with different methods and then applied them to correct the CH4 fluxes. Following this procedure we estimated a bias of the order of 0.1 g (CH4) m-2 (8% of the measured mean flux) in the processed and corrected CH4 fluxes on a monthly scale due to missing H2O concentration measurements. Finally, cumulative CH4 fluxes over 14 days from three closed-path gas analysers, G2311-f (Picarro Inc

  13. Componentized Models as a Service (CMaaS) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I project, which will conclude with a Technical Readiness Level of 3-4, will demonstrate the feasibility of the...

  14. 2014 Report: Wetland State-and-transition Model Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Report from the 2014 field season of the Wetland State-and-Transition Project. Many National Wildlife Refuges in the Intermountain West and Prairie Pothole regions...

  15. Integrated Modeling, Analysis, and Verification for Space Missions Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project will further MBSE technology in fundamental ways by strengthening the link between SysML tools and framework engineering execution environments. Phoenix...

  16. Executable SysML Model Development Accelerator for the Constellation Program Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project is aimed at investigating ways to accelerate the creation of SysML based models that can be used for model checking and more generally for...

  17. Gulf of Mexico dissolved oxygen model (GoMDOM) research and quality assurance project plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    An integrated high resolution mathematical modeling framework is being developed that will link hydrodynamic, atmospheric, and water quality models for the northern Gulf of Mexico. This Research and Quality Assurance Project Plan primarily focuses on the deterministic Gulf of Me...

  18. Angular momentum projection for a Nilsson mean-field plus pairing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yin; Pan, Feng; Launey, Kristina D.; Luo, Yan-An; Draayer, J. P.

    2016-06-01

    The angular momentum projection for the axially deformed Nilsson mean-field plus a modified standard pairing (MSP) or the nearest-level pairing (NLP) model is proposed. Both the exact projection, in which all intrinsic states are taken into consideration, and the approximate projection, in which only intrinsic states with K = 0 are taken in the projection, are considered. The analysis shows that the approximate projection with only K = 0 intrinsic states seems reasonable, of which the configuration subspace considered is greatly reduced. As simple examples for the model application, low-lying spectra and electromagnetic properties of 18O and 18Ne are described by using both the exact and approximate angular momentum projection of the MSP or the NLP, while those of 20Ne and 24Mg are described by using the approximate angular momentum projection of the MSP or NLP.

  19. Defining and implementing a model for pharmacy resident research projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dick TB

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To describe a standard approach to provide a support structure for pharmacy resident research that emphasizes self-identification of a residency research project. Methods: A subcommittee of the residency advisory committee was formed at our institution. The committee was initially comprised of 2 clinical pharmacy specialists, 1 drug information pharmacist, and 2 pharmacy administrators. The committee developed research guidelines that are distributed to residents prior to the residency start that detail the research process, important deadlines, and available resources. Instructions for institutional review board (IRB training and deadlines for various assignments and presentations throughout the residency year are clearly defined. Residents conceive their own research project and emphasis is placed on completing assignments early in the residency year. Results: In the 4 years this research process has been in place, 15 of 16 (94% residents successfully identified their own research question. All 15 residents submitted a complete research protocol to the IRB by the August deadline. Four residents have presented the results of their research at multi-disciplinary national professional meetings and 1 has published a manuscript. Feedback from outgoing residents has been positive overall and their perceptions of their research projects and the process are positive. Conclusion: Pharmacy residents selecting their own research projects for their residency year is a feasible alternative to assigning or providing lists of research projects from which to select a project.

  20. Do dynamic regional models add value to the global model projections of Indian monsoon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Swati; Ghosh, Subimal; Sahana, A. S.; Vittal, H.; Karmakar, Subhankar

    2017-02-01

    Dynamic Regional Climate Models (RCMs) work at fine resolution for a limited region and hence they are presumed to simulate regional climate better than General Circulation Models (GCMs). Simulations by RCMs are used for impacts assessment, often without any evaluation. There is a growing debate on the added value made by the regional models to the projections of GCMs specifically for the regions like, United States and Europe. Evaluation of RCMs for Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) has been overlooked in literature, though there are few disjoint studies on Indian monsoon extremes and biases. Here we present a comprehensive study on the evaluations of RCMs for the ISMR with all its important characteristics such as northward and eastward propagation, onset, seasonal rainfall patterns, intra-seasonal oscillations, spatial variability and patterns of extremes. We evaluate nine regional simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and compare them with their host Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 GCM projections. We do not find any consistent improvement in the RCM simulations with respect to their host GCMs for any of the characteristics of Indian monsoon except the spatial variation. We also find that the simulations of the ISMR characteristics by a good number of RCMs, are worse than those of their host GCMs. No consistent added value is observed in the RCM simulations of changes in ISMR characteristics over recent periods, compared to past; though there are few exceptions. These results highlight the need for proper evaluation before utilizing regional models for impacts assessment and subsequent policy making for sustainable climate change adaptation.

  1. Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

    2017-08-01

    As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

  2. Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mark; Proshuntinsky, Andrew; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Nguyen, An T.; Lindsay, Ron; Haas, Christian; Zhang, Jinlun; Diansky, Nikolay; Kwok, Ron; Maslowski, Wieslaw; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Ashik, Igor; De Cuevas, Beverly

    2012-01-01

    Six Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-Arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004-2008); airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001-2009); ice draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea, and the Beaufort Sea (1992-2008) and from submarines (1975-2000); and drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev, and East Siberian marginal seas (1982-1986) and coastal stations (1998-2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than approximately 2 mand underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about approximately 2m. In the regions of flat immobile landfast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25-30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than 4 times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generating ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System models.

  3. The regional impact of Land-Use Land-cover Change (LULCC) over West Africa from an ensemble of global climate models under the auspices of the WAMME2 project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boone, Aaron Anthony; Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Comer, Ruth E.; Hagos, Samson; Mahanama, Sarith; Schiro, Kathleen; Song, Guoqiong; Wang, Guiling; Li, S.; Mechoso, Carlos R.

    2016-12-01

    rainfall peak in three of the five models which evokes a precipitation dipole pattern which is consistent with the observed pattern for dry climate anomalies over this region. The African Easterly Jet shifts equator-ward, although the strength of this change varies considerably among the models. In most of the models, the main factor causing diabatic cooling of the upper troposphere and enhanced subsidence over the region of LULCC is the reduction of convective heating rates linked to reduced latent heat flux and moisture flux convergence. In broad agreement with previous studies, the impact of degradation on the regional climate is found to vary among the different models, however, the signal is stronger and more consistent between the models here than in previous inter-comparison projects. This is likely related to our emphasis on prioritizing a consistent impact of LULCC on the surface biophysical properties.

  4. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    Changes in rainfall extremes under climate change conditions are subject to numerous uncertainties. One of the most important uncertainties arises from the inherent uncertainty in climate models. In recent years, many efforts have been made in creating large multi-model ensembles of both Regional...... Climate Models (RCMs) and General Circulation Models (GCMs). These multi-model ensembles provide the information needed to estimate probabilistic climate change projections. Several probabilistic methods have been suggested. One common assumption in most of these methods is that the climate models...... of accounting for the climate model interdependency when estimating the uncertainty of climate change projections....

  5. Model Projections of East Asian Summer Climate under the'Free Arctic'Scenario

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hui-Jun; ZHANG Ying

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses the'ice-free Arctic'issue under the future global warming scenario.Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3)were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free.The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA I B(according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios)simulations.Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened,leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China.The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation,a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China's Yangtze River Valley.The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.

  6. A Multi-objective model for selection of projects to finance new enterprise SMEs in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.R. Coronado-Hernández

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper presents a multi-objective programming model for selection of Projects for Financing New Enterprise SMEs in Colombia with objectivity and transparency in every call. Approach: The model has four social objectives, subject to constraint budget and to the requirements of every summons. The resolution procedure for the model is based on principles of goal programming. Findings: Selection projects subject to the impact within the country. Research limitations: The selection of the projects is restricted by a legal framework, the terms of reference and the budget of the summons. Practical implications: The projects must be viable according to the characteristics of every summons. Originality/value: The suggested model offers an alternative for entities that need to evaluate projects of co-financing for the managerial development of the SMEs with more objectivity and transparency in the assignment of resources.

  7. Modeling one-mode projection of bipartite networks by tagging vertex information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Jian; Meng, Ying-Ying; Chen, Hsinchun; Huang, Hong-Qiao; Li, Guo-Ying

    2016-09-01

    Traditional one-mode projection models are less informative than their original bipartite networks. Hence, using such models cannot control the projection's structure freely. We proposed a new method for modeling the one-mode projection of bipartite networks, which thoroughly breaks through the limitations of the available one-mode projecting methods by tagging the vertex information of bipartite networks in their one-mode projections. We designed a one-mode collaboration network model by using the method presented in this paper. The simulation results show that our model matches three real networks very well and outperforms the available collaboration network models significantly, which reflects the idea that our method is ideal for modeling one-mode projection models of bipartite graphs and that our one-mode collaboration network model captures the crucial mechanisms of the three real systems. Our study reveals that size growth, individual aging, random collaboration, preferential collaboration, transitivity collaboration and multi-round collaboration are the crucial mechanisms of collaboration networks, and the lack of some of the crucial mechanisms is the main reason that the other available models do not perform as well as ours.

  8. Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the western Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Veliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

    2016-04-01

    The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research due to its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rain forest in carbon cycling. Climate change has also direct hydrological impact, and there have been increasing efforts to understand such dynamics at continental and subregional scales such as the scale of the western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the river. Using extremes value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 years. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100- year return floods). These findings are in agreement with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amid a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rain forest system over the greater Amazonia.

  9. Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.

    2008-01-01

    Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  10. A Comparative Study of Projection Models on China's Food Economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang XiaoYong, Xiaoyong

    2004-01-01

    During the last two decades, China's food supply and demand has been a hot topic for both politicians and academics given China's rapid economic development and its sheer market size. Accordingly, researchers are trying to project the future development of China's food economy. This article reviews

  11. A comparative study of projection models on China's food economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang XiaoYong, Xiaoyong

    2003-01-01

    During the last two decades, China's food supply and demand has been a hot topic for both politicians and academics given China's rapid economic development and its sheer market size. Accordingly, researchers are trying to project the future development of China's food economy. This article reviews

  12. Modelling in cross-disciplinary authentic student research projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Heck

    2010-01-01

    In the Dutch secondary education system, students must carry out at the end of their school career a rather large research or design project to demonstrate their ability to apply acquired knowledge and skills while pursuing a research question or design goal in some depth. They are encouraged to cho

  13. A model for personal life project design on the basis of vocational guidance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaac Geovanni Mendoza Cedeño

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article is intended to propose a model for developing vocational education personal life projects and its corresponding theoretical foundations. Therefore, the argument is undertaken on the model developed from philosophical views, epistemological, pedagogical, sociological, and psychological axiological, and a model is provided as a basis for the development of vocational education strategy for personal life project development contributing effectively to the development of responsible autonomy and high school students.

  14. Convergent modeling of past soil organic carbon stocks but divergent projections

    OpenAIRE

    Luo, Z.; Wang, E; Zheng, H.; J. A. Baldock; O. J. Sun; Shao, Q.

    2015-01-01

    Soil carbon models are important tool to understand soil carbon balance and project carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems, particularly under global change. The initialization and/or parameterization of soil carbon models can vary among studies even when the same model and dataset are used, causing potential uncertainties in projections. Although a few studies have assessed such uncertainties, it is yet unclear what these uncertainties are correlated with ...

  15. Reduced Order Aeroservoelastic Models with Rigid Body Modes Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Complex aeroelastic and aeroservoelastic phenomena can be modeled on complete aircraft configurations generating models with millions of degrees of freedom. Starting...

  16. Innovation Leadership in Innovation Projects: The Application of the Reflective Practitioner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oeij, P.R.A.; Gaspersz, J.; Vuuren, T. van; Dhondt, S.

    2016-01-01

    In 1983 Donald Schön wrote the Reflective Practitioner which implicitly but never explicitly contains a model of steps what it is to act as a reflective practitioner in real life. In this paper we apply that model and try to make this latent (tacit) model into a manifest (explicit) model. Project le

  17. Innovation Leadership in Innovation Projects: The Application of the Reflective Practitioner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oeij, P.R.A.

    2016-01-01

    In 1982 Donald Schön wrote the Reflective Practitioner which implicitly but never explicitly contains a model of steps what it is to act as a reflective practitioner in real life. In this paper we apply that model and try to make this latent (tacit) model into a manifest (explicit) model. Project le

  18. Supporting multidisciplinary model-based water management projects: a user perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholten, H.; Kassahun, A.

    2006-01-01

    Multidisciplinary model-based water management is a complex process. Projects that have to follow this process may encounter many problems, related to miscommunication, malpractice, misuse of the model, insufficient knowledge of the modeled problems and overselling of model capabilities. This leads

  19. Innovation Leadership in Innovation Projects: The Application of the Reflective Practitioner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oeij, P.R.A.

    2016-01-01

    In 1982 Donald Schön wrote the Reflective Practitioner which implicitly but never explicitly contains a model of steps what it is to act as a reflective practitioner in real life. In this paper we apply that model and try to make this latent (tacit) model into a manifest (explicit) model. Project

  20. A Project Portfolio Management model adapted to non-profit organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrício Martins Lacerda

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available As they strive towards greater professionalism in carrying out their activities, non-profit organizations (NPOs have begun paying attention to project management. The non-profit sector (NPS has also begun to adopt strategic planning techniques, thus making the acceptance of project portfolio management (PPM methodology a natural consequence. This article aims to propose a project portfolio management model adapted to the context of NPOs.

  1. A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP experiment designed for climate and chemistry models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Tilmes

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP experiment "G4 specified stratospheric aerosols" (short name: G4SSA is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmospheric composition, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulphur dioxide (SO2 into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments between 2020 and 2100. This stratospheric aerosol distribution, with a total burden of about 2 Tg S has been derived using the ECHAM5-HAM microphysical model, based on a continuous annual tropical emission of 8 Tg SO2 year−1. A ramp-up of geoengineering in 2020 and a ramp-down in 2070 over a period of two years are included in the distribution, while a background aerosol burden should be used for the last 3 decades of the experiment. The performance of this experiment using climate and chemistry models in a multi-model comparison framework will allow us to better understand the significance of the impact of geoengineering and the abrupt termination after 50 years on climate and composition of the atmosphere in a changing environment. The zonal and monthly mean stratospheric aerosol input dataset is available at https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/gcm/geomip-g4-specified-stratospheric-aerosol-data-set.

  2. Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

    CERN Document Server

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

  3. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  4. The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

    2005-01-01

    1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

  5. Modelling income distribution impacts of water sector projects in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, C S; Jones, S

    1991-09-01

    Dynamic analysis was conducted to assess the long-term impacts of water sector projects on agricultural income distribution, and sensitivity analysis was conducted to check the robustness of the 5 assumptions in this study of income distribution and water sector projects in Bangladesh. 7 transitions are analyzed for mutually exclusive irrigation and flooding projects: Nonirrigation to 1) LLP irrigation, 2) STW irrigation, 3) DTW irrigation, 4) major gravity irrigation, and manually operated shallow tubewell irrigation (MOSTI) and Flood Control Projects (FCD) of 6) medium flooded to shallow flooded, and 7) deeply flooded to shallow flooded. 5 analytical stages are involved: 1) farm budgets are derived with and without project cropping patterns for each transition. 2) Estimates are generated for value added/hectare from each transition. 3) Assumptions are made about the number of social classes, distribution of land ownership between classes, extent of tenancy for each social class, term of tenancy contracts, and extent of hiring of labor for each social class. 4) Annual value added/hectare is distributed among social classes. 5) Using Gini coefficients and simple ratios, the distribution of income between classes is estimated for with and without transition. Assumption I is that there are 4 social classes defined by land acreage: large farmers (5 acres), medium farmers (1.5-5.0), small farmers, (.01-1.49), and landless. Assumption II is that land distribution follows the 1978 Land Occupancy Survey (LOS). Biases, if any, are indicated. Assumption III is that large farmers sharecrop out 15% of land to small farmers. Assumption IV is that landlords provide nonirrigated crop land and take 50% of the crop, and, under irrigation, provide 50% of the fertilizer, pesticide, and irrigation costs and take 50% of the crop. Assumption V is that hired and family labor is assumed to be 40% for small farmers, 60% for medium farmers, and 80% for large farmers. It is understood that

  6. A Study on Project Planning Using the Deterministic and Probabilistic Models by Network Scheduling Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rama.S

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Project planning is the important task in many areas like construction, resource allocation and many. A sequence of activities has to be performed to complete one task. Each activity has its unique processing time and all together to identify the critical activities which affect the completion of the project. In this paper the probabilistic and deterministic models to determine the project completion time and also the critical activities are considered. A case study on building construction project has been performed to demonstrate the application of the above said models. The two project scheduling namely PERT and CPM are used to determine numerically the different types of floating times of each activity and hence determined the critical path which plays an important role in the project completion time. Also a linear programing model has been developed to reduce the project completion time which optimize the resource allocation. To apply these techniques numerically the primary data from a housing project company in a metropolitan city has been taken, the network diagram of the activities involved in the building construction project has been drawn and the results are tabulated.

  7. Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

    2015-01-01

    A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%-80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects.

  8. Management of information in development projects – a proposed integrated model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bester

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The first section of the article focuses on the need for development in Africa and the specific challenges of development operations. It describes the need for a holistic and integrated information management model as part of the project management body of knowledge aimed at managing the information flow between communities and development project teams. It is argued that information, and access to information, is crucial in development projects and can therefore be seen as a critical success factor in any development project. In the second section of the article, the three information areas of the holistic and integrated information management model are described. In the section thereafter we suggest roles and actions for information managers to facilitate information processes integral to the model. These processes seek to create a developing information community that aligns itself with the development project, and supports and sustains it.

  9. How historic simulation-observation discrepancy affects future warming projections in a very large model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Philip

    2016-10-01

    Projections of future climate made by model-ensembles have credibility because the historic simulations by these models are consistent with, or near-consistent with, historic observations. However, it is not known how small inconsistencies between the ranges of observed and simulated historic climate change affects the future projections made by a model ensemble. Here, the impact of historical simulation-observation inconsistencies on future warming projections is quantified in a 4-million member Monte Carlo ensemble from a new efficient Earth System Model (ESM). Of the 4-million ensemble members, a subset of 182,500 are consistent with historic ranges of warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake simulated by the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. This simulation-consistent subset projects similar future warming ranges to the CMIP5 ensemble for all four RCP scenarios, indicating the new ESM represents an efficient tool to explore parameter space for future warming projections based on historic performance. A second subset of 14,500 ensemble members are consistent with historic observations for warming, heat uptake and carbon uptake. This observation-consistent subset projects a narrower range for future warming, with the lower bounds of projected warming still similar to CMIP5, but the upper warming bounds reduced by 20-35 %. These findings suggest that part of the upper range of twenty-first century CMIP5 warming projections may reflect historical simulation-observation inconsistencies. However, the agreement of lower bounds for projected warming implies that the likelihood of warming exceeding dangerous levels over the twenty-first century is unaffected by small discrepancies between CMIP5 models and observations.

  10. Teaching Engineering Statistics with Technology, Group Learning, Contextual Projects, Simulation Models and Student Presentations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeu, Jorge Luis

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses our teaching approach in graduate level Engineering Statistics. It is based on the use of modern technology, learning groups, contextual projects, simulation models, and statistical and simulation software to entice student motivation. The use of technology to facilitate group projects and presentations, and to generate,…

  11. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J. C. S.; Falloon, P. D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F. T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D. B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S. N.; Franssen, W.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathwa

  12. Using UML Modeling to Facilitate Three-Tier Architecture Projects in Software Engineering Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Sandeep

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the use of a model-centric approach to facilitate software development projects conforming to the three-tier architecture in undergraduate software engineering courses. Many instructors intend that such projects create software applications for use by real-world customers. While it is important that the first version of these…

  13. Exploring Students' Computational Thinking Skills in Modeling and Simulation Projects: : A Pilot Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grgurina, Natasa; van Veen, Klaas; Barendsen, Erik; Zwaneveld, Bert; Suhre, Cor; Gal-Ezer, Judith; Sentance, Sue; Vahrenhold, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Computational Thinking (CT) is gaining a lot of attention in education. We explored how to discern the occurrences of CT in the projects of 12th grade high school students in the computer science (CS) course. Within the projects, they constructed models and ran simulations of phenomena from other (S

  14. Using UML Modeling to Facilitate Three-Tier Architecture Projects in Software Engineering Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Sandeep

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the use of a model-centric approach to facilitate software development projects conforming to the three-tier architecture in undergraduate software engineering courses. Many instructors intend that such projects create software applications for use by real-world customers. While it is important that the first version of these…

  15. Hotspots of uncertainty in land use and land cover change projections: a global scale model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K.; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D.; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Meijl, van Hans; Vliet, van Jasper; Verburg, Peter H.

    2016-01-01

    Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms

  16. Teaching Engineering Statistics with Technology, Group Learning, Contextual Projects, Simulation Models and Student Presentations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeu, Jorge Luis

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses our teaching approach in graduate level Engineering Statistics. It is based on the use of modern technology, learning groups, contextual projects, simulation models, and statistical and simulation software to entice student motivation. The use of technology to facilitate group projects and presentations, and to generate,…

  17. Developing project portfolio management model for innovation projects using grounded theory: a case of Iran’s power industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Khameneh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. Survival in a dynamic competitive environment often requires consistent produce of successful new product and services; therefore, implementing an effective Project Portfolio Management (PPM in the organization can improve innovation decisions and outcomes of new products, thereby lead to higher competitive advantage. This Paper aims at discovering the causal relationship of Innovation Project Portfolio Management (IPPM performance. The results of the analysis. Qualitative research design was chosen for this study and through using semi-structured and in-depth interviews with 24 experts in five Iranian organizations producing equipment of the power industry, we use a grounded theory approach to develop a general model of what drives IPPM in detail and how these causes are related to effects on both project performance and business performance. According to the findings from these qualitative data, effective IPPM is the result of three areas of capabilities: IPPM Process, IPPM structure, IPPM people. These causal relationships are moderated by project context. Also the findings show that performance of IPPM consist of an integrated elements of Strategic alignment, portfolio balance, resource fit and value maximization. In the other hand, IPPM performance has influences on project performance and business performance. Finally, a set of propositions regarding the key performance drivers of IPPM were developed. Conclusions and directions of further researches. In conclusion, this study contributes new insights to the emerging research on IPPM. While most IPPM literature is still a theoretical, this paper develops IPPM in the context of the Iran's power industry. The qualitative research design used in this paper was appropriate for gaining an in-depth understanding how the IPPM capabilities and project context, and certain performance constructs are linked to each other. Our interviews revealed the importance of integrating

  18. Global Modeling and Projection of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Klimont, Z.; Kurokawa, J.; Akimoto, H.

    2013-12-01

    In predicting and mitigating future global warming, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as tropospheric ozone (O3), black carbon (BC), and other related components including CH4/VOCs and aerosols play crucial roles as well as long-lived species like CO2 or N2O. Several recent studies suggests that reduction of heating SLCPs (i.e., O3 and black carbon) together with CH4 can decrease and delay the expected future warming, and can be an alternative to CO2 mitigation (Shindell et al., 2012). However it should be noted that there are still large uncertainties in simulating SLCPs and their climate impacts. For instance, present global models generally have a severe tendency to underestimate BC especially in remote areas like the polar regions as shown by the recent model intercomparison project under the IPCC (ACCMIP/AeroCOM). This problem in global BC modeling, basically coming from aging and removal processes of BC, causes still a large uncertainty in the estimate of BC's atmospheric heating and climate impacts (Bond et al., 2013; Kerr et al., 2013). This study attempted to improve global simulation of BC by developing a new scheme for simulating aging process of BC and re-evaluate radiative forcing of BC in the framework of a chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model (Earth system model) MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Our improved model with the new aging scheme appears to relatively well reproduce the observed BC concentrations and seasonality in the Arctic/Antarctic region. The new model estimates radiative forcing of BC to be 0.83 W m-2 which is about two times larger than the estimate by our original model with no aging scheme (0.41 W m-2), or the model ensemble mean in the IPCC report. Using this model, future projection of SLCPs and their climate impacts is conducted following the recent IIASA emission scenarios for the year 2030 (Klimont et al., 2006; Cofala et al., 2007). Our simulation suggests that heating SLCPs components (O3, BC, and CH4) are significantly reduced

  19. Large-scale features of Pliocene climate: results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

    OpenAIRE

    A. M. Haywood; D. J. Hill; Dolan, A. M.; B. L. Otto-Bliesner; F. Bragg; Chan, W.-L.; Chandler, M. A.; Contoux, C.; H. J. Dowsett; A. Jost; Y. Kamae; Lohmann, G.; Lunt, D. J.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Pickering, S.J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied. Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-model/data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are cle...

  20. Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

    2015-12-01

    Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

  1. Empowering Cloud Resolving Models Through GPU and Asynchronous IO Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Facilitate use of Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE), Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), and Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) with bin...

  2. How do OSS projects change in number and size? A large-scale analysis to test a model of project growth

    CERN Document Server

    Schweitzer, Frank; Tessone, Claudio J; Xia, Xi

    2015-01-01

    Established Open Source Software (OSS) projects can grow in size if new developers join, but also the number of OSS projects can grow if developers choose to found new projects. We discuss to what extent an established model for firm growth can be applied to the dynamics of OSS projects. Our analysis is based on a large-scale data set from SourceForge (SF) consisting of monthly data for 10 years, for up to 360'000 OSS projects and up to 340'000 developers. Over this time period, we find an exponential growth both in the number of projects and developers, with a remarkable increase of single-developer projects after 2009. We analyze the monthly entry and exit rates for both projects and developers, the growth rate of established projects and the monthly project size distribution. To derive a prediction for the latter, we use modeling assumptions of how newly entering developers choose to either found a new project or to join existing ones. Our model applies only to collaborative projects that are deemed to gro...

  3. Developing a Massively Parallel Forward Projection Radiography Model for Large-Scale Industrial Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauerle, Matthew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-08-01

    This project utilizes Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to compute radiograph simulations for arbitrary objects. The generation of radiographs, also known as the forward projection imaging model, is computationally intensive and not widely utilized. The goal of this research is to develop a massively parallel algorithm that can compute forward projections for objects with a trillion voxels (3D pixels). To achieve this end, the data are divided into blocks that can each t into GPU memory. The forward projected image is also divided into segments to allow for future parallelization and to avoid needless computations.

  4. Integration models in health information systems: experiences from the PlugIT project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mykkänen, Juha; Porrasmaa, Jari; Korpela, Mikko; Häkkinen, Heidi; Toivanen, Marika; Tuomainen, Mika; Häyrinen, Kristiina; Rannanheimo, Juha

    2004-01-01

    Different approaches are available for the integration of existing health information systems (HIS) in integration projects. Within the PlugIT project in Finland, we have found it necessary to design and implement integration in a collaborative, multidisciplinary and open way. In this paper, we use some generic integration models and relate them to the methods, solutions and experiences of the project. We summarize the results from nine integration teams, methods development and supporting surveys and studies, and discuss these experiences to provide some guidelines for the HIS integration projects in general.

  5. Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections

    CERN Document Server

    Michaels, Patrick J; Christy, John R; Herman, Chad S; Liljegren, Lucia M; Annan, James D

    2013-01-01

    Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are not expected to simulate the specific timing of these somewhat random phenomena - the occurrence of which may impact the realized trend. Therefore, to assess model performance, we develop distributions of projected temperature trends from a collection of climate models running the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. We evaluate where observed trends of length 5 to 15 years fall within the distribution of model trends of the same length. We find that current trends lie near the lower limits of the model distributions, with cumulative probability-of-occurrence values typically between 5 percent and 20 percent, and probabilities below 5 percent not uncommon. Our results indicate cause for concern regarding the consistency between climate model projections and observed climate behavior...

  6. A Model Project on Joint Custody for Families Undergoing Divorce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemmelman, Steven E.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    A model of service for parents undergoing divorce and considering joint custody of their children is described. The model integrates several intervention strategies, including mediation, group treatment, divorce counseling, and child guidance. The applicability of the model to a range of problems related to divorce and child custody is…

  7. Do telemonitoring projects of heart failure fit the Chronic Care Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemse, Evi; Adriaenssens, Jef; Dilles, Tinne; Remmen, Roy

    2014-07-01

    This study describes the characteristics of extramural and transmural telemonitoring projects on chronic heart failure in Belgium. It describes to what extent these telemonitoring projects coincide with the Chronic Care Model of Wagner. The Chronic Care Model describes essential components for high-quality health care. Telemonitoring can be used to optimise home care for chronic heart failure. It provides a potential prospective to change the current care organisation. This qualitative study describes seven non-invasive home-care telemonitoring projects in patients with heart failure in Belgium. A qualitative design, including interviews and literature review, was used to describe the correspondence of these home-care telemonitoring projects with the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. The projects were situated in primary and secondary health care. Their primary goal was to reduce the number of readmissions for chronic heart failure. None of these projects succeeded in a final implementation of telemonitoring in home care after the pilot phase. Not all the projects were initiated to accomplish all of the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. A central role for the patient was sparse. Limited financial resources hampered continuation after the pilot phase. Cooperation and coordination in telemonitoring appears to be major barriers but are, within primary care as well as between the lines of care, important links in follow-up. This discrepancy can be prohibitive for deployment of good chronic care. Chronic Care Model is recommended as basis for future.

  8. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific objectives and experimental design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. 

  9. Model-Based Design Tools for Extending COTS Components To Extreme Environments Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation in this project is model-based design (MBD) tools for predicting the performance and useful life of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components and...

  10. Model-Based Design Tools for Extending COTS Components To Extreme Environments Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation in this Phase I project is to prove the feasibility of using model-based design (MBD) tools to predict the performance and useful life of...

  11. Development of CFD Approaches for Modeling Advanced Concepts of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Test Facilities Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The project will be developing a CFD approach that can handle the additional complexities needed in a NTP testing facility when modeling the combustion processes in...

  12. Software Infrastructure to Enable Modeling & Simulation as a Service (M&SaaS) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This SBIR Phase 2 project will produce a software service infrastructure that enables most modeling and simulation (M&S) activities from code development and...

  13. Effects of Business Model Development Projects on Organizational Culture: A Multiple Case Study of SMEs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ulla Santti; Tuomo Eskelinen; Mervi Rajahonka; Kaija Villman; Ari Happonen

    2017-01-01

    ...” that helps a company develop organizational culture as a competitive advantage. In this study of three case companies, the organizational culture change due business model development projects is studied using the Competing Values Framework (CVF...

  14. Final technical report for DOE Computational Nanoscience Project: Integrated Multiscale Modeling of Molecular Computing Devices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cummings, P. T.

    2010-02-08

    This document reports the outcomes of the Computational Nanoscience Project, "Integrated Multiscale Modeling of Molecular Computing Devices". It includes a list of participants and publications arising from the research supported.

  15. Frequent Change Request From User to Handle Cost on Project in Agile Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shariq Aziz Butt; Tauseef Jamal

    2017-01-01

    .... It is facilitating the developer and client both very resourcefully. It is getting popularity than the other Software Development Life Cycle models because of its characteristics and most owing to allow change request at any level of the project...

  16. Model-Based Real Time Assessment of Capability Left for Spacecraft Under Failure Mode Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project is aimed at developing a model based diagnostics system for spacecraft that will allow real time assessment of its state, while it is impacted...

  17. Model-Based Resource and Mode Management for Lunar Surface Operations Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed project is aimed at developing a model based resource and mode management system for space robotics systems that will allow real time assessment of...

  18. TARGET ANALYSIS OF SUZHOU CREEK REHABILITATION PROJECT STAGE II:BASED ON WATER QUALITY MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIAO Zhen-liang; XU Zu-xin

    2004-01-01

    The Suzhou Creek is a seriously polluted tidal river in Shanghai. The Suzhou Creek Rehabilitation Project was launched in 1998, and the total investment will surpass 10 billion yuan RMB. It is important to assess the effectiveness of the project and ascertain its targets. In this study, by analyzing the achievements of Suzhou Creek Rehabilitation Project (Stage I) and its remaining problems, the main tasks of the Project Stage II are proposed. These works are wastewater interception, sediment dredging, bidirectional water diversion, and reconstruction of municipal pump stations. The water quality model established with USEPA's WASP is employed to analyze the quantitative targets of the Project Stage II. In the Project Stage II, the water quality of mainstream and tributaries will be improved continuously, the valus of CODCr, BOD5, DO in the mainstream will steadily attain Class IV according to the National Surface Water Quality Standard, and the ecological environment of Suzhou Creek with continuously recover.

  19. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  20. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  1. Orientifold ABJM Matrix Model: Chiral Projections and Worldsheet Instantons

    CERN Document Server

    Moriyama, Sanefumi

    2016-01-01

    We study the partition function of the orientifold ABJM theory, which is a superconformal Chern-Simons theory associated with the orthosymplectic supergroup. We find that the partition function associated with any orthosymplectic supergroup can be realized as that of a Fermi gas system whose density matrix is identical to that associated with the corresponding unitary supergroup with a projection to the even or odd chirality. Furthermore we propose an identity and use it to identify all of the Gopakumar-Vafa invariants for the worldsheet instanton effects systematically.

  2. Model project for intelligent distribution systems; Modellprojekt fuer intelligente Verteilnetze

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Opitsch, Bruno [Siemens AG, Nuernberg (Germany). Div. Smart Grid

    2013-06-01

    Due to the operation of photovoltaic systems, wind power plants and biomass conversion plants, the previous consumers of energy become more and more producers, so-called prosumers. This fact as well as the increasing volatile feeding of electricity from renewable energy sources require smart grids for the power distribution. The public utility Krefeld (Federal Republic of Germany) has launched a smart grid pilot project in Wachtendonk (Federal Republic of Germany) in cooperation with Siemens Smart Grid. With this, further practical experiences in the transformation of a power distribution system to a smart grid should be collected, and expertise should be built up.

  3. Triaxial projected shell model study of chiral rotation in odd-odd nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhat, G.H. [Department of Physics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190 006 (India); Sheikh, J.A. [Department of Physics, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190 006 (India); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Palit, R., E-mail: palit@tifr.res.in [Department of Nuclear and Atomic Physics, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Colaba, Mumbai, 400 005 (India)

    2012-01-20

    Chiral rotation observed in {sup 128}Cs is studied using the newly developed microscopic triaxial projected shell model (TPSM) approach. The observed energy levels and the electromagnetic transition probabilities of the nearly degenerate chiral dipole bands in this isotope are well reproduced by the present model. This demonstrates the broad applicability of the TPSM approach, based on a schematic interaction and angular-momentum projection technique, to explain a variety of low- and high-spin phenomena in triaxial rotating nuclei.

  4. Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

    OpenAIRE

    Zappa, Giuseppe; Hawcroft, Matthew K; Shaffrey, Len; Black, Emily; Brayshaw, David J.

    2015-01-01

    The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate change "hot-spot" due to a projected reduction in precipitation and fresh water availability which has potentially large socio-economic impacts. To increase confidence in these projections, it is important to physically understand how this precipitation reduction occurs. This study quantifies the impact on winter Mediterranean precipitation due to changes in extratropical cyclones in 17 CMIP5 climate models. In each model, the extratro...

  5. Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Whitney, Michael [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2016-10-20

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  6. Final Report Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Whitney, Michael M. [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States)

    2016-09-30

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  7. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  8. Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier; Robock, Alan; Rasch, Philip J.; Alterskjaer, Kari; Bou Karam, Diana; Cole, Jason N.; Curry, Charles L.; Haywood, J.; Irvine, Peter; Ji, Duoying; Jones, A.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Lunt, Daniel; Moore, John; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, M.; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, S.; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2013-08-09

    Solar geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

  9. Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pattyn

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing. Unique steady state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving "shelfy stream" models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including fixed grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models, with nested grid representations of the grounding line, are able to generate accurate steady state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full-Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full-Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

  10. Development of generic key performance indicators for PMBOK® using a 3D project integration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since Martin Barnes’ so-called ‘iron triangle’ circa 1969, much debate has occurred over how best to describe the fundamental constraints that underpin project success. This paper develops a 3D project integration model for PMBOK® comprising core constraints of scope, cost, time and risk as a basis to propose six generic key performance indicators (KPIs that articulate successful project delivery. These KPIs are defined as value, efficiency, speed, innovation, complexity and impact and can each be measured objectively as ratios of the core constraints. An overall KPI (denoted as s3/ctr is also derived. The aim in this paper is to set out the case for such a model and to demonstrate how it can be employed to assess the performance of project teams in delivering successful outcomes at various stages in the project life cycle. As part of the model’s development, a new PMBOK® knowledge area concerning environmental management is advanced.

  11. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J.M.; Nelson, G.C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Asseng, S.; Basso, B.; Ewert, F.; Wallach, D.; Baigorria, G.; Winter, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact

  12. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J.M.; Nelson, G.C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Asseng, S.; Basso, B.; Ewert, F.; Wallach, D.; Baigorria, G.; Winter, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projecti

  13. Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation historical and projected changes

    OpenAIRE

    J.-F. Lamarque; Dentener, F.; Mcconnell, J.; C.-U. Ro; M. Shaw; Vet, R.; D. Bergmann; Cameron-Smith, P.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, S. J.; B. Josse; Lee, Y. H.; I. A. MacKenzie; Plummer, D.

    2013-01-01

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000–2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice...

  14. Multi-model mean nitrogen and sulfur deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): evaluation of historical and projected future changes

    OpenAIRE

    Lamarque, J.-F.; Dentener, F.; Mcconnell, J.; Ro, C.-U.; M. Shaw; Vet, R.; D. Bergmann; Cameron-Smith, P.; Dalsoren, S.; Doherty, R.; Faluvegi, G.; Ghan, S. J.; B. Josse; Lee, Y. H.; I. A. MacKenzie

    2013-01-01

    We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000–2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000...

  15. Detecting Warming Hiatus Periods in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Tony W.; Noel C. Baker

    2016-01-01

    The observed slow-down in the global-mean surface temperature (GST) warming from 1998 to 2012 has been called a “warming hiatus.” Certain climate models, operating under experiments which simulate warming by increasing radiative forcing, have been shown to reproduce periods which resemble the observed hiatus. The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of 38 CMIP5 climate models to provide further evidence that models produce warming hiatus periods during warming experiments. GST rate...

  16. Eysenck Psychobiological Personality Model: a projected into the future history

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Vanina; Firpo, L; Vion, D.; Oliván, M E De Costa; Casella, L.; L Cuenya; G D Blum; Pedrón, V

    2010-01-01

    In this article, particular circumstances, author and ideas that influenced on the elaboration of one of the most solid personality models that Psychology has till nowadays: Eysenck Personality Model, are revised. Its main characteristics are presented, which defined it as a dispositional, dimensional, hierarchic and psychobiological model. The intention of improving dimensions description, explanation, and measurement, took this author to propose changes to his original theory and instrument...

  17. Eysenck Psychobiological Personality Model: a projected into the future history

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Vanina; Firpo, L; Vion, D.; Oliván, M E De Costa; Casella, L.; L Cuenya; G D Blum; V Pedrón

    2010-01-01

    In this article, particular circumstances, author and ideas that influenced on the elaboration of one of the most solid personality models that Psychology has till nowadays: Eysenck Personality Model, are revised. Its main characteristics are presented, which defined it as a dispositional, dimensional, hierarchic and psychobiological model. The intention of improving dimensions description, explanation, and measurement, took this author to propose changes to his original theory and instrument...

  18. Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project – 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate data for studies within the SWURVE (Sustainable Water: Uncertainty, Risk and Vulnerability in Europe project, assessing the risk posed by future climatic change to various hydrological and hydraulic systems were obtained from the regional climate model HadRM3H, developed at the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office. This paper gives some background to HadRM3H; it also presents anomaly maps of the projected future changes in European temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET, estimated using a variant of the Penman formula. The future simulations of temperature and rainfall, following the SRES A2 emissions scenario, suggest that most of Europe will experience warming in all seasons, with heavier precipitation in winter in much of western Europe (except for central and northern parts of the Scandinavian mountains and drier summers in most parts of western and central Europe (except for the north-west and the eastern part of the Baltic Sea. Particularly large temperature anomalies (>6°C are projected for north-east Europe in winter and for southern Europe, Asia Minor and parts of Russia in summer. The projected PET displayed very large increases in summer for a region extending from southern France to Russia. The unrealistically large values could be the result of an enhanced hydrological cycle in HadRM3H, affecting several of the input parameters to the PET calculation. To avoid problems with hydrological modelling schemes, PET was re-calculated, using empirical relationships derived from observational values of temperature and PET.

  19. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. van Zyl

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices involve significant human resource and organizational changes, one would reasonably expect this process to influence and resonate throughout all the dimensions of an organisation.

  20. Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Stoll, D.K.; Dolan, A.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere-only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilises fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

  1. Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Robinson, M. M.; Stoll, D. K.; Dolan, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.

    2011-01-01

    The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

  2. Physics-Based Pneumatic Hammer Instability Model Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Florida Turbine Technologies (FTT) proposes to conduct research necessary to develop a physics-based pneumatic hammer instability model for hydrostatic bearings...

  3. Detecting Warming Hiatus Periods in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tony W. Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The observed slow-down in the global-mean surface temperature (GST warming from 1998 to 2012 has been called a “warming hiatus.” Certain climate models, operating under experiments which simulate warming by increasing radiative forcing, have been shown to reproduce periods which resemble the observed hiatus. The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of 38 CMIP5 climate models to provide further evidence that models produce warming hiatus periods during warming experiments. GST rates are simulated in each model for the 21st century using two experiments: a moderate warming scenario (RCP4.5 and high-end scenario (RCP8.5. Warming hiatus periods are identified in model simulations by detecting (1 ≥15-year periods lacking a statistically meaningful trend and (2 rapid changes in the GST rate which resemble the observed 1998–2012 hiatus. Under the RCP4.5 experiment, all tested models produce warming hiatus periods. However, once radiative forcing exceeds 5 W/m2—about 2°C GST increase—as simulated in the RCP8.5 experiment after 2050, nearly all models produce only positive warming trends. All models show evidence of rapid changes in the GST rate resembling the observed hiatus, showing that the climate variations associated with warming hiatus periods are still evident in the models, even under accelerated warming conditions.

  4. Physical Modeling for Anomaly Diagnostics and Prognostics Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop developed an innovative, model-driven anomaly diagnostic and fault characterization system for electromechanical actuator (EMA) systems to mitigate...

  5. Aerodynamic Modeling with Heterogeneous Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Clear Science Corp. proposes to develop an aerodynamic modeling tool that assimilates data from different sources and facilitates uncertainty quantification. The...

  6. An Intruduction of WMO 8th Radiosondes Inter-comparison and Integrated Remote Instruments Experiment%WMO第八届阳江国际探空比对辅助遥感综合试验

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李峰; 李柏; 吴蕾; 杨荣康; 邢毅; 黄兴友; 肖辉; 王斌

    2012-01-01

    第八届阳江国际探空比对辅助遥感综合试验为分析探空仪系统在高空出入云的温湿特性,评估高层云红外辐射对温度传感器的影响以及湿度传感器的系统偏差提供有力帮助。通过试验,还评估了国产X波段双偏振雷达与毫米波云雷达的优缺点和性能差异,以及国产多普勒激光雷达、微脉冲激光雷达的探测性能和应用能力,在改进微波辐射计温湿反演算法、X波段偏振雷达参数的云中粒子相态模糊逻辑识别算法,以及多普勒天气雷达风场反演、云分类算法、高空业务测风算法等方面开展广泛研究并取得一定进展。试验还利用先进的各类遥感设备对阳江热带地区的云、局地对流以及海陆风系统的结构进行了观测和分析,取得了较好的研究结果。%WMO 8th international radiosondes inter-comparison and integrated remote instruments experiment provide abundant high quality data, which help to analyze the capability of radiosondes, and evaluate infrared-radi- ation impact on temperature sensor and humidity sensor bias. By this experimentation, the advantages and disadvantages of China-made X-band polarize radar and Ka-band cloud radar and laser radar, MPL, Ceilometer etc. are evaluated. Some studies were devoted to improve the key algorithms such as microwave radiometer temperature and humidity measurement, the X-band and Ka-band radars echo attenuation correction, Doppler wind field inversion, cloud classification and upper air wind measurement. Furthermore, sea-land wind systems are detected by using the remote instruments experiment also provides a good case for researching how to organize the local clouds, tropical convective system and and the results are delighting. Similarly, this preferably integrated remote instruments obser- vation test for the future.

  7. Use of mathematical modeling in nuclear measurements projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toubon, H.; Menaa, N.; Mirolo, L.; Ducoux, X.; Khalil, R. A. [AREVA/CANBERRA Nuclear Measurements Business Unit, Saint Quentin-en-Yvelines 78182 (France); Chany, P. [AREVA/BE Nuclear Sites Value Development AREVA NC Marcoule, BP 76170, 30206 Bagnols Sur Ceze (France); Devita, A. [AREVA/BE MELOX, BP 124, 30206 Bagnols Sur Ceze (France)

    2011-07-01

    Mathematical modeling of nuclear measurement systems is not a new concept. The response of the measurement system is described using a pre-defined mathematical model that depends on a set of parameters. These parameters are determined using a limited set of experimental measurement points e.g. efficiency curve, dose rates... etc. The model that agrees with the few experimental points is called an experimentally validated model. Once these models have been validated, we use mathematical interpolation to find the parameters of interest. Sometimes, when measurements are not practical or are impossible extrapolation is implemented but with care. CANBERRA has been extensively using mathematical modeling for the design and calibration of large and sophisticated systems to create and optimize designs that would be prohibitively expensive with only experimental tools. The case studies that will be presented here are primarily performed with MCNP, CANBERRA's MERCURAD/PASCALYS and ISOCS (In Situ Object Counting Software). For benchmarking purposes, both Monte Carlo and ray-tracing based codes are inter-compared to show models consistency and add a degree of reliability to modeling results. (authors)

  8. A Model Community Skin Cancer Prevention Project in Maine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine A. Hayden

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of our program was to create and test a community skin cancer prevention project for replication throughout the state of Maine. The project was a collaborative effort of the Maine Cancer Consortium, American Cancer Society (ACS, and the City of Portland, Health and Human Services Department, Public Health Division. Portland, Me, served as the pilot site. The National Cancer Institute (NCI defines skin cancer as a disease in which abnormal cells divide uncontrollably in the outer layers of the skin (1. The American Cancer Society's Facts and Figures 2001 (the latest year for which these figures are available estimated that more than 1 million cases of highly curable basal cell or squamous cell cancers would be diagnosed in the United States that year (2. An estimated 9800 U.S. deaths from cancer were projected as well: 7800 from melanoma, the most serious form of skin cancer, and 2000 from other skin cancers. Melanoma was expected to be diagnosed in about 51,400 Americans in 2001. The incidence rate of melanoma has increased about 3% per year on average since 1981. In 2002, NCI announced that researchers showed for the first time that individual risk of melanoma is associated with the intensity of sunlight that a person receives over a lifetime (3. Target audiences for our program were newborns and their parents, children between 5 and 14 years old and their caregivers, and all people living in the Portland area. Protecting skin from excess sun exposure during childhood and adolescence is important in reducing the risk of all types of skin cancer during adulthood. From our anecdotal evidence, many parents of newborns are unaware that sunscreen is not recommended for babies under 6 months of age, and they need better information about how to protect their newborns from the sun. Teaching children and their caregivers to follow ACS guidelines will help protect their skin for years to come. It will also help children to develop healthy

  9. Eysenck Psychobiological Personality Model: a projected into the future history

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanina Schmidt

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article, particular circumstances, author and ideas that influenced on the elaboration of one of the most solid personality models that Psychology has till nowadays: Eysenck Personality Model, are revised. Its main characteristics are presented, which defined it as a dispositional, dimensional, hierarchic and psychobiological model. The intention of improving dimensions description, explanation, and measurement, took this author to propose changes to his original theory and instrument. Hence, different periods of this model are analyzed. In spite of proliferation of personality theories, Eysenck model has an empirical validity that only a few have. Thus, we argue that in Personality Psychology there is a background available which represents the Paradigm into which we will probably be moving in the next years

  10. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.

    2014-01-01

    Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents...... to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data...

  11. Structure and use of the medium term projection model in the National Bank of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đukić Mirko

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Medium-term projections are an important element of the decision making process in the inflation-targeting regime that the National Bank of Serbia has been implementing for the past several years. The main goal of medium-term projections is to project the policy rate path that will ensure that inflation in the coming period moves close to the targeted inflation rate. The most important tool for medium term projections is a new Keynesian macroeconomic model, which is a set of equations aiming to describe the price formation mechanism in Serbia and the transmission channel of monetary policy to prices. The model is comprised of four main behavioral equations for inflation, exchange rate, output gap, and policy rate, and of a number of side behavioral equations and identities. The model in the current form has been used since the end of 2008 and is subject to regular adjustments and improvements.

  12. Benefits of Building Information Modelling in the Project Lifecycle: Construction Projects in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Jian Li; Ying Wang; Xiangyu Wang; Hanbin Luo; Shih-Chung Kang; Jun Wang,; Jun Guo; Yi Jiao

    2014-01-01

    Building Information Modelling (BIM) is a process involving the creation and management of objective data with property, unique identity and relationship. In the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry, BIM is adopted a lot in the lifecycle of buildings because of the high integration of information that it enables. Four-dimensional (4D) computer-aided design (CAD) has been adopted for many years to improve the construction planning process. BIM is adopted throughout buildin...

  13. Modeling reverberation mapping data II: dynamical modeling of the Lick AGN Monitoring Project 2008 dataset

    CERN Document Server

    Pancoast, Anna; Treu, Tommaso; Park, Daeseong; Barth, Aaron J; Bentz, Misty C; Woo, Jong-Hak

    2013-01-01

    We present dynamical modeling of the broad line region (BLR) for a sample of five Seyfert 1 galaxies using reverberation mapping data taken by the Lick AGN Monitoring Project (LAMP) in 2008. The sample includes Arp 151, Mrk 1310, NGC 5548, NGC 6814, and SBS 1116+583A. By modeling the continuum light curve and H$\\beta$ line profiles directly we are able to constrain the geometry and kinematics of the BLR. Modeling the kinematics also allows us to make a measurement of the black hole mass that does not depend upon the virial coefficient or normalizing factor needed in traditional reverberation mapping analysis. We find that the geometry of the BLR is generally a thick disk viewed close to face-on, but a more spherical geometry is not ruled out for two of the five AGNs. While the H$\\beta$ is found to come preferentially from the far side of the BLR, the mean size of the BLR is consistent with the lags measured with cross-correlation analysis. The BLR kinematics are generally found to be consistent with either in...

  14. Reduction of Protein Networks Models by Passivity Preserving Projection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Luca Mesin; Flavio Canavero; Lamberto Rondoni

    2013-01-01

    Reduction of complex protein networks models is of great importance.The accuracy of a passivity preserving algorithm (PRIMA) for model order reduction (MOR) is here tested on protein networks,introducing innovative variations of the standard PRIMA method to fit the problem at hand.The reduction method does not require to solve the complete system,resulting in a promising tool for studying very large-scale models for which the full solution cannot be computed.The mathematical structure of the considered kinetic equations is preserved.Keeping constant the reduction factor,the approximation error is lower for larger systems.

  15. Use of numerical simulation modeling for perfecting coal industry projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Y.; Abramovich, B.N. (Kitaiskii Gornyi Universitet (China))

    1992-02-01

    Evaluates digital computerized simulation of operation of control systems for a hydraulic haulage system of the MLS-170 coal cutter loader used in China. A structural scheme of a mathematical model of the hydraulic haulage system is discussed. The BGLS program package for haulage system modeling is described. Modeling haulage system start-up and oil pressure fluctuations and their causes is evaluated. Practical aspects of use of the digital computerized simulation by manufacturers of the MLS-170 haulage system for its modifications are discussed. 3 refs

  16. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

    2013-09-01

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  17. Finite Element Models for Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication Process Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Small Business Innovation Research proposal offers to develop the most accurate, comprehensive and efficient finite element models to date for simulation of the...

  18. Hybrid Computational Model for High-Altitude Aeroassist Vehicles Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A hybrid continuum/noncontinuum computational model will be developed for analyzing the aerodynamics and heating on aeroassist vehicles. Unique features of this...

  19. Microscopic Analysis and Modeling of Airport Surface Sequencing Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Although a number of airportal surface models exist and have been successfully used for analysis of airportal operations, only recently has it become possible to...

  20. Pressure Sensitive Paint Applied to Flexible Models Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schairer, Edward T.; Kushner, Laura Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    One gap in current pressure-measurement technology is a high-spatial-resolution method for accurately measuring pressures on spatially and temporally varying wind-tunnel models such as Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (IADs), parachutes, and sails. Conventional pressure taps only provide sparse measurements at discrete points and are difficult to integrate with the model structure without altering structural properties. Pressure Sensitive Paint (PSP) provides pressure measurements with high spatial resolution, but its use has been limited to rigid or semi-rigid models. Extending the use of PSP from rigid surfaces to flexible surfaces would allow direct, high-spatial-resolution measurements of the unsteady surface pressure distribution. Once developed, this new capability will be combined with existing stereo photogrammetry methods to simultaneously measure the shape of a dynamically deforming model in a wind tunnel. Presented here are the results and methodology for using PSP on flexible surfaces.

  1. Enhancing Access to Scientific Models through Standard Web Services Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We propose to investigate the feasibility and value of the "Software as a Service" paradigm in facilitating access to Earth Science numerical models. We...

  2. Fault Management: Degradation Signature Detection, Modeling, and Processing Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fault to Failure Progression (FFP) signature modeling and processing is a new method for applying condition-based signal data to detect degradation, to identify...

  3. Self-Organizing Maps for Fast LES Combustion Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Tremendous advances have been made in the development of large and accurate detailed reaction chemistry models for hydrocarbon fuels. Comparable progress has also...

  4. Polymer Matrix Composites using Fused Deposition Modeling Technology Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fused deposition modeling (FDM) is an additive manufacturing technology that allows fabrication of complex three-dimensional geometries layer-by-layer. The goal of...

  5. Collaborative Project. Mode and Intermediate Waters in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Dufour, Carolina [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Rodgers, Keith B. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2015-12-16

    The focus of this grant was on diagnosing the physical mechanisms controlling upper ocean water mass formation and carbon distribution in Earth System Models (ESMs), with the goal of improving the physics that controls their formation.

  6. Electronic Modeling and Design for Extreme Temperatures Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We are developing CAD tools, models and methodologies for electronics design for circuit operation in extreme environments with focus on very low temperatures...

  7. Integrated Visualization Environment for Science Mission Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — NASA is emphasizing the use of larger, more integrated models in conjunction with systems engineering tools and decision support systems. These tools place a...

  8. Model Updating and Uncertainty Management for Aircraft Prognostic Systems Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This proposal addresses the integration of physics-based damage propagation models with diagnostic measures of current state of health in a mathematically rigorous...

  9. Hybrid Computational Model for High-Altitude Aeroassist Vehicles Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The proposed effort addresses a need for accurate computational models to support aeroassist and entry vehicle system design over a broad range of flight conditions...

  10. [Analysis of tobacco style features using near-infrared spectroscopy and projection model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, Ru-Xin; Cai, Jia-Yue; Yang, Zheng-Yu; Yang, Kai; Zhao, Long-Lian; Zhang, Lu-Da; Zhang Ye-Hui; Li, Ye-Hui

    2014-10-01

    In the present paper, a total of 4,733 flue-cured tobacco samples collected from 2003 to 2012 in 17 provincial origins and 5 ecological areas were tested by near infrared spectroscopy, including the NONG(Luzhou) flavor 1,580 cartons, QING (Fen) flavor 2004 cartons and Intermediate flavor 1 149 cartons. Using projection model based on principal component and Fisher criterion (PPF), Projection analysis models of tobacco ecological regions and style characteristics were established. Reasonableness of style flavor division is illustrated by the model results of tobacco ecological areas. With the Euclidean distance between the predicted sample projection values and the mean projection values of each class in style characteristics model, a description is given for the prediction samples to quantify the extent of the style features, and their first and second close categories. Using the dispersion of projected values in model and the given threshold value, prediction results can be refined into typical NONG, NONG to Intermediate, Intermediate to NONG, typical Intermediate, Intermediate to QING, QING to Intermediate, typical QING, QING to NONG, NONG to QING, or super-model range. The model was validated by 35 tobacco samples obtained from the re-dryingprocess in 2012 with different origins and parts. This kind of analysis methods not only can achieve discriminant analysis, but also can get richer feature attribute information and provide guidance to raw tobacco processing and formulations.

  11. Robust Proactive Project Scheduling Model for the Stochastic Discrete Time/Cost Trade-Off Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongbo Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the project budget version of the stochastic discrete time/cost trade-off problem (SDTCTP-B from the viewpoint of the robustness in the scheduling. Given the project budget and a set of activity execution modes, each with uncertain activity time and cost, the objective of the SDTCTP-B is to minimize the expected project makespan by determining each activity’s mode and starting time. By modeling the activity time and cost using interval numbers, we propose a proactive project scheduling model for the SDTCTP-B based on robust optimization theory. Our model can generate robust baseline schedules that enable a freely adjustable level of robustness. We convert our model into its robust counterpart using a form of the mixed-integer programming model. Extensive experiments are performed on a large number of randomly generated networks to validate our model. Moreover, simulation is used to investigate the trade-off between the advantages and the disadvantages of our robust proactive project scheduling model.

  12. Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovenduski, Nicole S.; McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew C.

    2016-09-01

    We quantify and isolate the sources of projection uncertainty in annual-mean sea-air CO2 flux over the period 2006-2080 on global and regional scales using output from two sets of ensembles with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and models participating in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For annual-mean, globally-integrated sea-air CO2 flux, uncertainty grows with prediction lead time and is primarily attributed to uncertainty in emission scenario. At the regional scale of the California Current System, we observe relatively high uncertainty that is nearly constant for all prediction lead times, and is dominated by internal climate variability and model structure, respectively in the CESM and CMIP5 model suites. Analysis of CO2 flux projections over 17 biogeographical biomes reveals a spatially heterogenous pattern of projection uncertainty. On the biome scale, uncertainty is driven by a combination of internal climate variability and model structure, with emission scenario emerging as the dominant source for long projection lead times in both modeling suites.

  13. A maturity model for SCPMS project-an empirical investigation in large sized Moroccan companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chafik Okar

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available In the recent years many studies on maturity model have been carried out. Some refer specifically to maturity models for supply chain and performance measurement system. Starting from an analysis of the existing literature, the aim of this paper is to develop a maturity model for the supply chain performance measurement system (SCPMS project based on the concept of critical success factors (CSFs. This model will be validated by two approaches. The first is a pilot test of the model in a Moroccan supply chain to demonstrate his capacity of assessing the maturity of SCPMS project and whether it can develop an improvement roadmap. The second is an empirical investigation in large sized Moroccan companies by using a survey to depict whether it can evaluate the maturity of SCPMS project in different industries.

  14. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Steinacher

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP and export of particulate organic carbon (EP are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

  15. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Steinacher

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity and export of particulate organic carbon are projected over the 21st century with three global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All three models show a decrease in global mean marine productivity and export production between 7 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all three models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in productivity and export of particulate organic carbon. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in primary and export production as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where two models project an increase in productivity while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observations compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer primary production from satellite observations.

  16. Model of evaluating the projected payback period in energy preservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorshkov Aleksandr Sergeevich

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Providing energy efficiency of newly designed buildings is an important state task which is considered in EPBD directive and the latest regulations on energy saving. Though reducing energy consumption of the existing building is not less important. The majority of the existing buildings had been built before the implementation of modern energy saving programs. That’s why the volume of energy consumption in the existing buildings is greater than in new buildings. In frames of the given investigation the author considers the problem of forecasting the payback period of investment into reduction of energy consumption in a building. The formula is offered for calculating the projected payback period in energy saving with account for capital costs, calculated or actual value of the achieved energy saving effect, rise in tariffs for energy sources, discounting of the future cash flows and the volume and time for return of credit funds. Basing on the offered calculation methods it is possible to compare the efficiency of different energy saving solutions.

  17. Modeling of an Adjustable Beam Solid State Light Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Toni

    2015-01-01

    This proposal is for the development of a computational model of a prototype variable beam light source using optical modeling software, Zemax Optics Studio. The variable beam light source would be designed to generate flood, spot, and directional beam patterns, while maintaining the same average power usage. The optical model would demonstrate the possibility of such a light source and its ability to address several issues: commonality of design, human task variability, and light source design process improvements. An adaptive lighting solution that utilizes the same electronics footprint and power constraints while addressing variability of lighting needed for the range of exploration tasks can save costs and allow for the development of common avionics for lighting controls.

  18. Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

  19. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T. [Golder Associates Inc., Seattle (United States); Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan [Golder Grundteknik KB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL{sup -1}]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT{sup -1}]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and

  20. Projection pursuit cluster model and its application in water quality assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Shun-jiu; YANG Zhi-feng; DING Jing

    2004-01-01

    One of the difficulties frequently encountered in water quality assessment is that there are many factors and they cannot be assessed according to one factor, all the effect factors associated with water quality must be used. In order to overcome this issues the projection pursuit principle is introduced into water quality assessment, and projection pursuit cluster(PPC) model is developed in this study. The PPC model makes the transition from high dimension to one-dimension. In other words, based on the PPC model, multifactor problem can be converted to one factor problem. The application of PPC model can be divided into four parts: (1) to estimate projection index function ; (2) to find the right projection direction; (3) to calculate projection characteristic value of the sample , and (4) to draw comprehensive analysis on the basis of . On the other hand, the empirical formula of cutoff radius is developed, which is benefit for the model to be used in practice. Finally, a case study of water quality assessment is proposed in this paper. The results showed that the PPC model is reasonable, and it is more objective and less subjective in water quality assessment. It is a new method for multivariate problem comprehensive analysis.