WorldWideScience

Sample records for model inter-comparison project

  1. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-10-10

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

  2. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bakker

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG. This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an interesting test bed for climate models in light of projected global warming. However, mainly because synchronizing the different palaeoclimatic records is difficult, there is no consensus on a global picture of LIG temperature changes. Here we present the first model inter-comparison of transient simulations covering the LIG period. By comparing the different simulations, we aim at investigating the common signal in the LIG temperature evolution, investigating the main driving forces behind it and at listing the climate feedbacks which cause the most apparent inter-model differences. The model inter-comparison shows a robust Northern Hemisphere July temperature evolution characterized by a maximum between 130–125 ka BP with temperatures 0.3 to 5.3 K above present day. A Southern Hemisphere July temperature maximum, −1.3 to 2.5 K at around 128 ka BP, is only found when changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations are included. The robustness of simulated January temperatures is large in the Southern Hemisphere and the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For these regions maximum January temperature anomalies of respectively −1 to 1.2 K and −0.8 to 2.1 K are simulated for the period after 121 ka BP. In both hemispheres these temperature maxima are in line with the maximum in local summer insolation. In a number of specific regions, a common temperature evolution is not found amongst the models. We show that this is related to feedbacks within the climate system which largely determine the simulated LIG temperature evolution in these regions. Firstly, in the Arctic region, changes in the summer sea-ice cover control the evolution of LIG winter

  3. Results of the eruptive column model inter-comparison study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio; Suzuki, Yujiro; Cerminara, M.; Devenish, Ben J.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Herzog, Michael; Van Eaton, Alexa; Denby, L.C.; Bursik, Marcus; de' Michieli Vitturi, Mattia; Engwell, S.; Neri, Augusto; Barsotti, Sara; Folch, Arnau; Macedonio, Giovanni; Girault, F.; Carazzo, G.; Tait, S.; Kaminski, E.; Mastin, Larry G.; Woodhouse, Mark J.; Phillips, Jeremy C.; Hogg, Andrew J.; Degruyter, Wim; Bonadonna, Costanza

    2016-01-01

    This study compares and evaluates one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of volcanic eruption columns in a set of different inter-comparison exercises. The exercises were designed as a blind test in which a set of common input parameters was given for two reference eruptions, representing a strong and a weak eruption column under different meteorological conditions. Comparing the results of the different models allows us to evaluate their capabilities and target areas for future improvement. Despite their different formulations, the 1D and 3D models provide reasonably consistent predictions of some of the key global descriptors of the volcanic plumes. Variability in plume height, estimated from the standard deviation of model predictions, is within ~ 20% for the weak plume and ~ 10% for the strong plume. Predictions of neutral buoyancy level are also in reasonably good agreement among the different models, with a standard deviation ranging from 9 to 19% (the latter for the weak plume in a windy atmosphere). Overall, these discrepancies are in the range of observational uncertainty of column height. However, there are important differences amongst models in terms of local properties along the plume axis, particularly for the strong plume. Our analysis suggests that the simplified treatment of entrainment in 1D models is adequate to resolve the general behaviour of the weak plume. However, it is inadequate to capture complex features of the strong plume, such as large vortices, partial column collapse, or gravitational fountaining that strongly enhance entrainment in the lower atmosphere. We conclude that there is a need to more accurately quantify entrainment rates, improve the representation of plume radius, and incorporate the effects of column instability in future versions of 1D volcanic plume models.

  4. Inter-Comparison of Retrieved and Modelled Soil Moisture and Coherency of Remotely Sensed Hydrology Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolassa, Jana; Aires, Filipe

    2013-04-01

    A neural network algorithm has been developed for the retrieval of Soil Moisture (SM) from global satellite observations. The algorithm estimates soil moisture from a synergy of passive and active microwave, infrared and visible satellite observations in order to capture the different SM variabilities that the individual sensors are sensitive to. The advantages and drawbacks of each satellite observation have been analysed and the information type and content carried by each observation have been determined. A global data set of monthly mean soil moisture for the 1993-2000 period has been computed with the neural network algorithm (Kolassa et al., in press, 2012). The resulting soil moisture retrieval product has then been used in an inter-comparison study including soil moisture from (1) the HTESSEL model (Balsamo et al., 2009), (2) the WACMOS satellite product (Liu et al., 2011), and (3) in situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (Dorigo et al., 2011). The analysis showed that the satellite remote sensing products are well-suited to capture the spatial variability of the in situ data and even show the potential to improve the modelled soil moisture. Both satellite retrievals also display a good agreement with the temporal structures of the in situ data, however, HTESSEL appears to be more suitable for capturing the temporal variability (Kolassa et al., in press, 2012). The use of this type of neural network approach is currently being investigated as a retrieval option for the SMOS mission. Our soil moisture retrieval product has also been used in a coherence study with precipitation data from GPCP (Adler et al., 2003) and inundation estimates from GIEMS (Prigent et al., 2007). It was investigated on a global scale whether the three observation-based datasets are coherent with each other and show the expected behaviour. For most regions of the Earth, the datasets were consistent and the behaviour observed could be explained with the known

  5. Inter-comparison of Computer Codes for TRISO-based Fuel Micro-Modeling and Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, Brian; Keun Jo, Chang; Wu, Wen; Ougouag, Abderrafi M.; McEachren, Donald; Venneri, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), the Deep Burn Pebble Bed Reactor (DB-PBR) and the Deep Burn Prismatic Block Reactor (DB-PMR) are all based on fuels that use TRISO particles as their fundamental constituent. The TRISO particle properties include very high durability in radiation environments, hence the designs reliance on the TRISO to form the principal barrier to radioactive materials release. This durability forms the basis for the selection of this fuel type for applications such as Deep Bun (DB), which require exposures up to four times those expected for light water reactors. It follows that the study and prediction of the durability of TRISO particles must be carried as part of the safety and overall performance characterization of all the designs mentioned above. Such evaluations have been carried out independently by the performers of the DB project using independently developed codes. These codes, PASTA, PISA and COPA, incorporate models for stress analysis on the various layers of the TRISO particle (and of the intervening matrix material for some of them), model for fission products release and migration then accumulation within the SiC layer of the TRISO particle, just next to the layer, models for free oxygen and CO formation and migration to the same location, models for temperature field modeling within the various layers of the TRISO particle and models for the prediction of failure rates. All these models may be either internal to the code or external. This large number of models and the possibility of different constitutive data and model formulations and the possibility of a variety of solution techniques makes it highly unlikely that the model would give identical results in the modeling of identical situations. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an inter-comparison between the codes and to identify areas of agreement and areas that need reconciliation. The inter-comparison has been carried out by the cooperating

  6. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Hundecha, Y.; Lawrence, D.

    2015-01-01

    Information on extreme precipitation for future climate is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding. The primary source of information in climate change impact studies is climate model projections. However, due to the coarse resolution and biases of these models......), three are bias correction (BC) methods, and one is a perfect prognosis method. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from 15 regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project for 11 catchments in Europe. The overall results point to an increase in extreme precipitation...... that at least 30% and up to approximately half of the total variance is derived from the SDMs. This study illustrates the large variability in the expected changes in extreme precipitation and highlights the need for considering an ensemble of both SDMs and climate models. Recommendations are provided...

  7. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme precipitation in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Hundecha, Y.; Lawrence, D.

    impact studies. Four methods are based on change factors and four are bias correction methods. The change factor methods perturb the observations according to changes in precipitation properties estimated from the Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The bias correction methods correct the output from...... the RCMs. The eight methods are used to downscale precipitation output from fifteen RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project for eleven catchments in Europe. The performance of the bias correction methods depends on the catchment, but in all cases they represent an improvement compared to RCM output. The overall...... results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in all the catchments in winter and in most catchments in summer. For each catchment, the results tend to agree on the direction of the change but differ in the magnitude. These differences can be mainly explained due to differences in the RCMs....

  8. Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Lawrence, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171km2 in size...... catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme...... flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall-dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where...

  9. Upper-soil moisture inter-comparison from SMOS's products and land surface models over the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polcher, Jan; Barella-Ortiz, Anaïs; Aires, Filipe; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Gelati, Emiliano; Rodríguez-Fernández, Nemesio

    2015-04-01

    Soil moisture is a key state variable of the hydrological cycle. It conditions runoff, infiltration and evaporation over continental surfaces, and is key for forecasting droughts and floods. It plays thus an important role in surface-atmosphere interactions. Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) can be measured by in situ measurements, by satellite observations or modelled using land surface models. As a complementary tool, data assimilation can be used to combine both modelling and satellite observations. The work presented here is an inter-comparison of retrieved and modelled SSM data, for the 2010 - 2012 period, over the Iberian Peninsula. The region has been chosen because its vegetation cover is not very dense and includes strong contrasts in the rainfall regimes and thus a diversity of behaviours for SSM. Furthermore this semi-arid region is strongly dependent on a good management of its water resources. Satellite observations correspond to the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) retrievals: the L2 product from an optimal interpolation retrieval, and 3 other products using Neural Network retrievals with different input information: SMOS time indexes, purely SMOS data, or addition of the European Advanced Scaterometer (ASCAT) backscattering, and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) surface temperature information. The modelled soil moistures have been taken from the ORCHIDEE (ORganising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic EcosystEms) and the HTESSEL (Hydrology-Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) land surface models. Both models are forced with the same atmospheric conditions (as part of the Earth2Observe FP7 project) over the period but they represent the surface soil moisture with very different degrees of complexity. ORCHIDEE has 5 levels in the top 5 centimetres of soil while in HTESSEL this variable is part of the top soil moisture level. The two types of SMOS retrievals are compared to the model outputs in their spatial and temporal

  10. Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vives i Batlle, J.; Beresford, N. A.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Bezhenar, R.; Brown, J.; Cheng, J. -J.; Ćujić, M.; Dragović, S.; Duffa, C.; Fiévet, B.; Hosseini, A.; Jung, K. T.; Kamboj, S.; Keum, D. -K.; Kryshev, A.; LePoire, D.; Maderich, V.; Min, B. -I.; Periáñez, R.; Sazykina, T.; Suh, K. -S.; Yu, C.; Wang, C.; Heling, R.

    2016-03-01

    We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of 90Sr, 131I and 137Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.

  11. Assessing doses to terrestrial wildlife at a radioactive waste disposal site: inter-comparison of modelling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, M P; Barnett, C L; Beresford, N A; Brown, J E; Černe, M; Howard, B J; Kamboj, S; Keum, D-K; Smodiš, B; Twining, J R; Vandenhove, H; Vives i Batlle, J; Wood, M D; Yu, C

    2012-06-15

    Radiological doses to terrestrial wildlife were examined in this model inter-comparison study that emphasised factors causing variability in dose estimation. The study participants used varying modelling approaches and information sources to estimate dose rates and tissue concentrations for a range of biota types exposed to soil contamination at a shallow radionuclide waste burial site in Australia. Results indicated that the dominant factor causing variation in dose rate estimates (up to three orders of magnitude on mean total dose rates) was the soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides that included variation in transfer parameter values as well as transfer calculation methods. Additional variation was associated with other modelling factors including: how participants conceptualised and modelled the exposure configurations (two orders of magnitude); which progeny to include with the parent radionuclide (typically less than one order of magnitude); and dose calculation parameters, including radiation weighting factors and dose conversion coefficients (typically less than one order of magnitude). Probabilistic approaches to model parameterisation were used to encompass and describe variable model parameters and outcomes. The study confirms the need for continued evaluation of the underlying mechanisms governing soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides to improve estimation of dose rates to terrestrial wildlife. The exposure pathways and configurations available in most current codes are limited when considering instances where organisms access subsurface contamination through rooting, burrowing, or using different localised waste areas as part of their habitual routines. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Holton, L

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available and thermohaline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa , is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined...

  13. Inter-comparison of receptor models for PM source apportionment: Case study in an industrial area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana, M.; Pandolfi, M.; Minguillón, M. C.; Querol, X.; Alastuey, A.; Monfort, E.; Celades, I.

    2008-05-01

    Receptor modelling techniques are used to identify and quantify the contributions from emission sources to the levels and major and trace components of ambient particulate matter (PM). A wide variety of receptor models are currently available, and consequently the comparability between models should be evaluated if source apportionment data are to be used as input in health effects studies or mitigation plans. Three of the most widespread receptor models (principal component analysis, PCA; positive matrix factorization, PMF; chemical mass balance, CMB) were applied to a single PM10 data set (n=328 samples, 2002-2005) obtained from an industrial area in NE Spain, dedicated to ceramic production. Sensitivity and temporal trend analyses (using the Mann-Kendall test) were applied. Results evidenced the good overall performance of the three models (r2>0.83 and α>0.91×between modelled and measured PM10 mass), with a good agreement regarding source identification and high correlations between input (CMB) and output (PCA, PMF) source profiles. Larger differences were obtained regarding the quantification of source contributions (up to a factor of 4 in some cases). The combined application of different types of receptor models would solve the limitations of each of the models, by constructing a more robust solution based on their strengths. The authors suggest the combined use of factor analysis techniques (PCA, PMF) to identify and interpret emission sources, and to obtain a first quantification of their contributions to the PM mass, and the subsequent application of CMB. Further research is needed to ensure that source apportionment methods are robust enough for application to PM health effects assessments.

  14. Assessing doses to terrestrial wildlife at a radioactive waste disposal site: Inter-comparison of modelling approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johansen, M.P., E-mail: mathew.johansen@ansto.gov.au [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Locked Bag 2001, Kirrawee DC, NSW, 2232 (Australia); Barnett, C.L., E-mail: clb@ceh.ac.uk [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster (United Kingdom); Beresford, N.A., E-mail: nab@ceh.ac.uk [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster (United Kingdom); Brown, J.E., E-mail: justin.brown@nrpa.no [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Oesteraas (Norway); Cerne, M., E-mail: marko.cerne@ijs.si [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Howard, B.J., E-mail: bjho@ceh.ac.uk [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster (United Kingdom); Kamboj, S., E-mail: skamboj@anl.gov [Argonne National Laboratory, IL (United States); Keum, D.-K., E-mail: dkkeum@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Smodis, B. [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Twining, J.R., E-mail: jrt@ansto.gov.au [Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Locked Bag 2001, Kirrawee DC, NSW, 2232 (Australia); Vandenhove, H., E-mail: hvandenh@sckcen.be [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Mol (Belgium); Vives i Batlle, J., E-mail: jvbatll@sckcen.be [Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Mol (Belgium); Wood, M.D., E-mail: m.d.wood@salford.ac.uk [University of Salford, Manchester (United Kingdom); Yu, C., E-mail: cyu@anl.gov [Argonne National Laboratory, IL (United States)

    2012-06-15

    Radiological doses to terrestrial wildlife were examined in this model inter-comparison study that emphasised factors causing variability in dose estimation. The study participants used varying modelling approaches and information sources to estimate dose rates and tissue concentrations for a range of biota types exposed to soil contamination at a shallow radionuclide waste burial site in Australia. Results indicated that the dominant factor causing variation in dose rate estimates (up to three orders of magnitude on mean total dose rates) was the soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides that included variation in transfer parameter values as well as transfer calculation methods. Additional variation was associated with other modelling factors including: how participants conceptualised and modelled the exposure configurations (two orders of magnitude); which progeny to include with the parent radionuclide (typically less than one order of magnitude); and dose calculation parameters, including radiation weighting factors and dose conversion coefficients (typically less than one order of magnitude). Probabilistic approaches to model parameterisation were used to encompass and describe variable model parameters and outcomes. The study confirms the need for continued evaluation of the underlying mechanisms governing soil-to-organism transfer of radionuclides to improve estimation of dose rates to terrestrial wildlife. The exposure pathways and configurations available in most current codes are limited when considering instances where organisms access subsurface contamination through rooting, burrowing, or using different localised waste areas as part of their habitual routines. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Assessment of modelled dose rates to terrestrial biota from radionuclides. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The substantial variation among current approaches is quantifiable. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The dominant variable was soil

  15. Eddy dynamics over continental slopes under retrograde winds: Insights from a model inter-comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Stewart, Andrew L.

    2018-01-01

    Mesoscale eddies are ubiquitous in the ocean and play a key role in exchanges across continental slopes. In this study the properties of wind-driven baroclinic turbulence are investigated using eddy-resolving process simulations, focusing on the case of retrograde winds that arises around the margins of the subtropical gyres. In contrast to a flat-bottomed ocean, over steep slopes eddies develop from baroclinic instabilities are confined to the top few hundred meters. Deeper in the water column baroclinic instability and vertical momentum transfer are suppressed, so wind-input momentum is exported toward the open ocean by eddies before traversing down to the ocean bed. Close to the sloping topography, eddy energy sourced from the upper ocean is converted to potential energy, steepening isopycnals and driving bottom-trapped prograde flows. This process is associated with upgradient lateral buoyancy fluxes and downgradient isopycnal potential vorticity fluxes, and cannot be reproduced via linear stability calculations. These properties of wind-driven shelf/slope turbulence are contrasted against simulations with flat bathymetry. The key differences described above hinge on the flow close to the steep topographic slope, which may be sensitive to the model's vertical coordinate system. The simulations are therefore replicated using models that employ geopotential coordinates, terrain-following coordinates, and isopycnal coordinates. Quantitative inter-model discrepancies in the momentum and energy budgets are much more pronounced in the presence of a steep bottom slope. However, the key findings of this study are consistent across the models, suggesting that they are robust and warrant incorporation into parameterizations of eddy transfer across continental slopes.

  16. Inter-comparison of different models for estimating clear sky solar global radiation for the Negev region of Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ianetz, Amiran; Lyubansky, Vera; Setter, Ilan; Kriheli, Boris; Evseev, Efim G.; Kudish, Avraham I.

    2007-01-01

    Solar global radiation is a function of solar altitude, site altitude, albedo, atmospheric transparency and cloudiness, whereas solar global radiation on a clear day is defined such that it is a function of all the abovementioned parameters except cloudiness. Consequently, analysis of the relative magnitudes of solar global radiation and solar global radiation on a clear day provides a platform for studying the influence of cloudiness on solar global radiation. The Iqbal filter for determining the day type has been utilized to calculate the monthly average clear day solar global radiation at three sites in the Negev region of Israel. An inter-comparison between four models for estimating clear sky solar global radiation at the three sites was made. The relative accuracy of the four models was determined by comparing the monthly average daily clear sky solar global radiation to that determined using the Iqbal filter. The analysis was performed on databases consisting of measurements made during the time interval of January 1991 to December 2004. The monthly average daily clear sky solar global radiation determined by the Berlynd model was found to give the best agreement with that determined using the Iqbal filter. The Berlynd model was then utilized to calculate a daily clear day index, K c , which is defined as the ratio of the daily solar global radiation to the daily clear day solar global radiation. It is suggested that this index be used as an indication of the degree of cloudiness. Linear regression analysis was performed on the individual monthly databases for each site to determine the correlation between the daily clear day index and the daily clearness index, K T

  17. Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

    2013-12-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences

  18. Air quality and climate change, Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia Phase III (MICS-Asia III) - Part 1: Overview and model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Meng; Han, Zhiwei; Liu, Zirui; Li, Meng; Xin, Jinyuan; Tao, Zhining; Li, Jiawei; Kang, Jeong-Eon; Huang, Kan; Dong, Xinyi; Zhuang, Bingliang; Li, Shu; Ge, Baozhu; Wu, Qizhong; Cheng, Yafang; Wang, Yuesi; Lee, Hyo-Jung; Kim, Cheol-Hee; Fu, Joshua S.; Wang, Tijian; Chin, Mian; Woo, Jung-Hun; Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Zifa; Carmichael, Gregory R.

    2018-04-01

    Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) Phase III examines how online coupled air quality models perform in simulating high aerosol pollution in the North China Plain region during wintertime haze events and evaluates the importance of aerosol radiative and microphysical feedbacks. A comprehensive overview of the MICS-Asia III Topic 3 study design, including descriptions of participating models and model inputs, the experimental designs, and results of model evaluation, are presented. Six modeling groups from China, Korea and the United States submitted results from seven applications of online coupled chemistry-meteorology models. Results are compared to meteorology and air quality measurements, including data from the Campaign on Atmospheric Aerosol Research Network of China (CARE-China) and the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). The correlation coefficients between the multi-model ensemble mean and the CARE-China observed near-surface air pollutants range from 0.51 to 0.94 (0.51 for ozone and 0.94 for PM2.5) for January 2010. However, large discrepancies exist between simulated aerosol chemical compositions from different models. The coefficient of variation (SD divided by the mean) can reach above 1.3 for sulfate in Beijing and above 1.6 for nitrate and organic aerosols in coastal regions, indicating that these compositions are less consistent from different models. During clean periods, simulated aerosol optical depths (AODs) from different models are similar, but peak values differ during severe haze events, which can be explained by the differences in simulated inorganic aerosol concentrations and the hygroscopic growth efficiency (affected by varied relative humidity). These differences in composition and AOD suggest that future models can be improved by including new heterogeneous or aqueous pathways for sulfate and nitrate formation under hazy conditions, a secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation chemical

  19. Inter-comparison of state-of-the-art MSS and geoid models in the Arctic Ocean

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skourup, Henriette; Farrell, Sinead; Hendricks, Stefan

    in errors in the estimated freeboard heights, especially in areas with a sparse lead distribution in consolidated ice conditions. Additionally these errors can impact ocean geostrophic current estimates and remaining biases in the models may impact longer-term, multi-sensor oceanographic time-series of sea......State-of-the-art Arctic Ocean mean sea surface (MSS) and geoid models are used to support sea ice freeboard estimation from satellite altimeters, and for oceanographic studies. However, errors in a given model in the high frequency domain, e.g. due to unresolved gravity features, can result...

  20. Inter-comparison of energy balance and hydrological models for land surface energy flux estimation over a whole river catchment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzinski, R.; Nieto, H.; Stisen, S.

    2015-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is the main link between the natural water cycle and the land surface energy budget. Therefore water-balance and energy-balance approaches are two of the main methodologies for modelling this process. The water-balance approach is usually implemented as a complex....... The temporal patterns produced by the remote sensing and hydrological models are quite highly correlated (r ≈ 0.8). This indicates potential benefits to the hydrological modelling community of integrating spatial information derived through remote sensing methodology (contained in the ET maps...

  1. TransCom N2O model inter-comparison, Part II : Atmospheric inversion estimates of N2O emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thompson, R. L.; Ishijima, K.; Saikawa, E.; Corazza, M.; Karstens, U.; Patra, P. K.; Bergamaschi, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Weiss, R. F.; O'Doherty, S.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Krummel, P. B.; Vermeulen, A.; Tohjima, Y.; Jordan, A.; Haszpra, L.; Steinbacher, M.; Van Der Laan, S.; Aalto, T.; Meinhardt, F.; Popa, Maria Elena; Moncrieff, J.; Bousquet, P.

    2014-01-01

    This study examines N2O emission estimates from 5 different atmospheric inversion frameworks. The 5 frameworks differ in the choice of atmospheric transport model, meteorological data, prior uncertainties and inversion method but use the same prior emissions and observation dataset. The mean

  2. TransCom N2O model inter-comparison - Part 2 : Atmospheric inversion estimates of N2O emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thompson, R. L.; Ishijima, K.; Saikawa, E.; Corazza, M.; Karstens, U.; Patra, P. K.; Bergamaschi, P.; Chevallier, F.; Dlugokencky, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Weiss, R. F.; O'Doherty, S.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Krummel, P. B.; Vermeulen, A.; Tohjima, Y.; Jordan, A.; Haszpra, L.; Steinbacher, M.; Van Der Laan, S.; Aalto, T.; Meinhardt, F.; Popa, Maria Elena|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/375806407; Moncrieff, J.; Bousquet, P.

    2014-01-01

    This study examines N2O emission estimates from five different atmospheric inversion frameworks based on chemistry transport models (CTMs). The five frameworks differ in the choice of CTM, meteorological data, prior uncertainties and inversion method but use the same prior emissions and observation

  3. A Methodological Inter-Comparison of Gridded Meteorological Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, A. J.; Clark, M. P.; Longman, R. J.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Arnold, J.

    2017-12-01

    Here we present a gridded meteorology inter-comparison using the state of Hawaíi as a testbed. This inter-comparison is motivated by two general goals: 1) the broad user community of gridded observation based meteorological fields should be aware of inter-product differences and the reasons they exist, which allows users to make informed choices on product selection to best meet their specific application(s); 2) we want to demonstrate the utility of inter-comparisons to meet the first goal, yet highlight that they are limited to mostly generic statements regarding attribution of differences that limits our understanding of these complex algorithms and obscures future research directions. Hawaíi is a useful testbed because it is a meteorologically complex region with well-known spatial features that are tied to specific physical processes (e.g. the trade wind inversion). From a practical standpoint, there are now several monthly climatological and daily precipitation and temperature datasets available that are being used for impact modeling. General conclusions that have emerged are: 1) differences in input station data significantly influence product differences; 2) prediction of precipitation occurrence is crucial across multiple metrics; 3) derived temperature statistics (e.g. diurnal temperature range) may have large spatial differences across products; and 4) attribution of differences to methodological choices is difficult and may limit the outcomes of these inter-comparisons, particularly from a development viewpoint. Thus, we want to continue to move the community towards frameworks that allow for multiple options throughout the product generation chain and allow for more systematic testing.

  4. Atmospheric Correction Inter-Comparison Exercise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgia Doxani

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Atmospheric Correction Inter-comparison eXercise (ACIX is an international initiative with the aim to analyse the Surface Reflectance (SR products of various state-of-the-art atmospheric correction (AC processors. The Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT and Water Vapour (WV are also examined in ACIX as additional outputs of AC processing. In this paper, the general ACIX framework is discussed; special mention is made of the motivation to initiate the experiment, the inter-comparison protocol, and the principal results. ACIX is free and open and every developer was welcome to participate. Eventually, 12 participants applied their approaches to various Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 image datasets acquired over sites around the world. The current results diverge depending on the sensors, products, and sites, indicating their strengths and weaknesses. Indeed, this first implementation of processor inter-comparison was proven to be a good lesson for the developers to learn the advantages and limitations of their approaches. Various algorithm improvements are expected, if not already implemented, and the enhanced performances are yet to be assessed in future ACIX experiments.

  5. Chemical Modeling of the Reactivity of Short-Lived Greenhouse Gases: A Model Inter-Comparison Prescribing a Well-Measured, Remote Troposphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prather, Michael J.; Flynn, Clare M.; Zhu, Xin; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Strode, Sarah A.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Correa, Gustavo; Murray, Lee T.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

    2018-01-01

    We develop a new protocol for merging in situ measurements with 3-D model simulations of atmospheric chemistry with the goal of integrating over the data to identify the most reactive air parcels in terms of tropospheric production and loss of the greenhouse gases ozone and methane. Presupposing that we can accurately measure atmospheric composition, we examine whether models constrained by such measurements agree on the chemical budgets for ozone and methane. In applying our technique to a synthetic data stream of 14,880 parcels along 180W, we are able to isolate the performance of the photochemical modules operating within their global chemistry-climate and chemistry-transport models, removing the effects of modules controlling tracer transport, emissions, and scavenging. Differences in reactivity across models are driven only by the chemical mechanism and the diurnal cycle of photolysis rates, which are driven in turn by temperature, water vapor, solar zenith angle, clouds, and possibly aerosols and overhead ozone, which are calculated in each model. We evaluate six global models and identify their differences and similarities in simulating the chemistry through a range of innovative diagnostics. All models agree that the more highly reactive parcels dominate the chemistry (e.g., the hottest 10% of parcels control 25-30% of the total reactivities), but do not fully agree on which parcels comprise the top 10%. Distinct differences in specific features occur, including the regions of maximum ozone production and methane loss, as well as in the relationship between photolysis and these reactivities. Unique, possibly aberrant, features are identified for each model, providing a benchmark for photochemical module development. Among the 6 models tested here, 3 are almost indistinguishable based on the inherent variability caused by clouds, and thus we identify 4, effectively distinct, chemical models. Based on this work, we suggest that water vapor differences in

  6. Atmospheric Correction Inter-comparison Exercise (ACIX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermote, E.; Doxani, G.; Gascon, F.; Roger, J. C.; Skakun, S.

    2017-12-01

    The free and open data access policy to Landsat-8 (L-8) and Sentinel-2 (S-2) satellite imagery has encouraged the development of atmospheric correction (AC) approaches for generating Bottom-of-Atmosphere (BOA) products. Several entities have started to generate (or plan to generate in the short term) BOA reflectance products at global scale for L-8 and S-2 missions. To this end, the European Space Agency (ESA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have initiated an exercise on the inter-comparison of the available AC processors. The results of the exercise are expected to point out the strengths and weaknesses, as well as communalities and discrepancies of various AC processors, in order to suggest and define ways for their further improvement. In particular, 11 atmospheric processors from five different countries participate in ACIX with the aim to inter-compare their performance when applied to L-8 and S-2 data. All the processors should be operational without requiring parametrization when applied on different areas. A protocol describing in details the inter-comparison metrics and the test dataset based on the AERONET sites has been agreed unanimously during the 1st ACIX workshop in June 2016. In particular, a basic and an advanced run of each of the processor were requested in the frame of ACIX, with the aim to draw robust and reliable conclusions on the processors' performance. The protocol also describes the comparison metrics of the aerosol optical thickness and water vapour products of the processors with the corresponding AERONET measurements. Moreover, concerning the surface reflectances, the inter-comparison among the processors is defined, as well as the comparison with the MODIS surface reflectance and with a reference surface reflectance product. Such a reference product will be obtained using the AERONET characterization of the aerosol (size distribution and refractive indices) and an accurate radiative transfer code. The inter-comparison

  7. PIDIE, plutonium isotopic determination inter-comparison exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harry, R.J.S.

    1990-07-01

    PIDIE (Plutonium Isotopic Determination Inter-comparison Exercise) is one of the projects of the ESARDA Working Group on Techniques and Standards for Non-Destructive Analysis. PIDIE is placed against the historical background of the general development of international standards. Its results are also reviewed in the light of the original purpose of the project. Sets of seven sealed Pu samples of different isotopic composition, each containing 0,45 grammes, were sent to the 9 participating laboratories for three separate determinations of the unknown isotopic composition, to investigate error sources and , if possible to improve the knowledge of γ-emission probabilities. An additional question was to examine the possible improvement of such measurements using reference samples. No important bias has been observed in the results of this inter-comparison. The apparent improvement in the precision and accuracy of the result seems to arise from both better equipment and more elaborate spectrum evaluation methods. (author). 39 refs.; 1 fig.; 5 tabs

  8. Air quality and climate change, Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia Phase III (MICS-Asia III – Part 1: Overview and model evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gao

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia Phase III examines how online coupled air quality models perform in simulating high aerosol pollution in the North China Plain region during wintertime haze events and evaluates the importance of aerosol radiative and microphysical feedbacks. A comprehensive overview of the MICS-Asia III Topic 3 study design, including descriptions of participating models and model inputs, the experimental designs, and results of model evaluation, are presented. Six modeling groups from China, Korea and the United States submitted results from seven applications of online coupled chemistry–meteorology models. Results are compared to meteorology and air quality measurements, including data from the Campaign on Atmospheric Aerosol Research Network of China (CARE-China and the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET. The correlation coefficients between the multi-model ensemble mean and the CARE-China observed near-surface air pollutants range from 0.51 to 0.94 (0.51 for ozone and 0.94 for PM2.5 for January 2010. However, large discrepancies exist between simulated aerosol chemical compositions from different models. The coefficient of variation (SD divided by the mean can reach above 1.3 for sulfate in Beijing and above 1.6 for nitrate and organic aerosols in coastal regions, indicating that these compositions are less consistent from different models. During clean periods, simulated aerosol optical depths (AODs from different models are similar, but peak values differ during severe haze events, which can be explained by the differences in simulated inorganic aerosol concentrations and the hygroscopic growth efficiency (affected by varied relative humidity. These differences in composition and AOD suggest that future models can be improved by including new heterogeneous or aqueous pathways for sulfate and nitrate formation under hazy conditions, a secondary organic aerosol (SOA

  9. Med-CORDEX: a first coordinated inter-comparison of high-resolution and fully coupled regional climate models for the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somot, Samuel

    2015-04-01

    Due to its geographical, meteorological and oceanographic features, the Mediterranean region can be considered as one of the best place to test and use regional climate modelling tools. It has been chosen as one of the CORDEX sub-domain (MED) leading to the Med-CORDEX initiative. This open and voluntary initiative, financially supported by MISTRALS/HyMeX, has been proposed by the Mediterranean climate modelling research community as a follow-up of previous initiatives. In addition to the CORDEX-like simulations (Atmosphere-RCM, 50 km, ERA-Interim and GCM driven runs), Med-CORDEX includes additional simulations to experiment some of the regional climate modelling current challenges. We present here the status and results of these additional simulations dedicated to the use of (1) very high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCM, up to 10 km) and (2) fully coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSM), coupling the various components of the regional climate (atmosphere, land surface and hydrology, river and ocean). Today, Med-CORDEX gathers 23 different modelling groups from 9 different countries (France, Italy, Spain, Serbia, Turkey, Greece, Tunisia, Germany, Hungary) in Europe, Middle-East and North-Africa. They use 12 different atmosphere RCMs including land-surface representation, 4 river models, 10 regional ocean models and 12 different Regional Climate System Models. Almost all the simulations planned (Evaluation, Historical and Scenarios modes) have been completed by the modelling teams. More than half of the runs are archived and freely available for non-commercial use through a dedicated database hosted at ENEA at www.medcordex.eu in common and standardized netcdf format (265,000 files and 3.6 Tb uploaded). This includes atmosphere-only, ocean-only and fully coupled regional climate models. In particular multi-model regional ocean simulations have been archived in a common and standardized format for the first time in the history of the Mediterranean Sea

  10. Inter-comparison of ice sheet mass balance products from GRACE: ESA CCI Round Robin results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groth, A.; Horwath, M.; Horvath, A.

    -term satellite-based data products are generated for selected ECVs. Since ice sheet mass balance is an ECV parameter of highest interest, both the AIS_cci and the GIS_cci project will provide mass balance products based on satellite gravimetry data: (a) time series of monthly mass changes for individual drainage...... basins, and (b) gridded mass changes covering the entire ice sheet.Gravimetry Mass Balance (GMB) products are derived from data acquired by the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission. Although GRACE data have the advantage of being directly sensitive to mass changes, their limited...... drainage basins the GMB time series are compared to independent mass balance products based on satellite altimetry and firn densification information from a regional climate model. This inter-comparison has aided the algorithm definition for the operational ECV production....

  11. SimilarityExplorer: A visual inter-comparison tool for multifaceted climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Poco; A. Dasgupta; Y. Wei; W. Hargrove; C. Schwalm; R. Cook; E. Bertini; C. Silva

    2014-01-01

    Inter-comparison and similarity analysis to gauge consensus among multiple simulation models is a critical visualization problem for understanding climate change patterns. Climate models, specifically, Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBM) represent time and space variable ecosystem processes, for example, simulations of photosynthesis and respiration, using algorithms...

  12. GODAE Inter-Comparisons in the Tasman and Coral Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    and salinity. All have their strengths and weaknesses, and each system out-performs all others in one aspect or another. With few exceptions, all... Auckland and Fiji (Fig 1), was occupied during the inter- comparison period. The observed T section from this line is shown in Fig 6a. Comparisons of T...has certain strengths and weaknesses. Inter-comparisons are regarded as valuable exer- cises that provide important insights into the ocean forecast

  13. Airborne hygrometer calibration inter-comparison against a metrological water vapour standard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smorgon, Denis; Boese, Norbert; Ebert, Volker

    2014-05-01

    of PTB and a validated, two-pressure generator acting as a highly stable and reproducible source of water vapour. The aim of AV2-B was to perform an absolute, metrological comparison of the field instruments/calibration infrastructures to the metrological humidity scale, and to collect essential information about methods and procedures used by the atmospheric community for instrument calibration and validation, in order to investigate e.g. the necessity and possible comparability advantage by a standardized calibration procedure. The work will give an overview over the concept of the AV2-B inter-comparison, the various general measurement and calibration principles, and discuss the outcome and consequences of the comparison effort. The AQUAVIT effort is linked to the EMRP project METEOMET (ENV07) and partially supported by the EMRP and ENV07. The EMRP is jointly funded by the EMRP participating countries within EURAMET and the European Union. [1] H. Saathoff, C. Schiller, V. Ebert, D. W. Fahey, R.-S. Gao, O. Möhler, and the aquavit team, The AQUAVIT formal intercomparison of atmospheric water measurement methods, 5th General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union, 13-18 April 2008, Vienna, Austria Keywords: humidity, water vapour, inter-comparison, airborne instruments.

  14. Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimp, Steven; Jin, Huidong; Kokic, Philip; Bakar, Shuvo; Nicholls, Neville

    2018-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has already been shown to effect the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and seasonality of extreme climate events. Understanding these changes is an important step in determining exposure, vulnerability and focus for adaptation. In an attempt to support adaptation decision-making we have examined statistical modelling techniques to improve the representation of global climate model (GCM) derived projections of minimum temperature extremes (frosts) in Australia. We examine the spatial changes in minimum temperature extreme metrics (e.g. monthly and seasonal frost frequency etc.), for a region exhibiting the strongest station trends in Australia, and compare these changes with minimum temperature extreme metrics derived from 10 GCMs, from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) datasets, and via statistical downscaling. We compare the observed trends with those derived from the "raw" GCM minimum temperature data as well as examine whether quantile matching (QM) or spatio-temporal (spTimerQM) modelling with Quantile Matching can be used to improve the correlation between observed and simulated extreme minimum temperatures. We demonstrate, that the spTimerQM modelling approach provides correlations with observed daily minimum temperatures for the period August to November of 0.22. This represents an almost fourfold improvement over either the "raw" GCM or QM results. The spTimerQM modelling approach also improves correlations with observed monthly frost frequency statistics to 0.84 as opposed to 0.37 and 0.81 for the "raw" GCM and QM results respectively. We apply the spatio-temporal model to examine future extreme minimum temperature projections for the period 2016 to 2048. The spTimerQM modelling results suggest the persistence of current levels of frost risk out to 2030, with the evidence of continuing decadal variation.

  15. Evaluation of NAA laboratory results in inter-comparison on determination of trace elements in food and environmental samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diah Dwiana Lestiani; Syukria Kurniawati; Natalia Adventini

    2012-01-01

    Inter-comparison program is a good tool for improving quality and to enhance the accuracy and precision of the analytical techniques. By participating in this program, laboratories could demonstrate their capability and ensuring the quality of analysis results generated by analytical laboratories. The Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) laboratory at National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia (BATAN), Nuclear Technology Center for Materials and Radiometry-PTNBR laboratory participated in inter-comparison tests organized by NAA working group. Inter-comparison BATAN 2009 was the third inter-laboratory analysis test within that project. The participating laboratories were asked to analyze for trace elements using neutron activation analysis as the primary technique. Three materials were distributed to the participants representing foodstuff, and environmental material samples. Samples were irradiated in rabbit facility of G.A. Siwabessy reactor with neutron flux ~ 10 13 n.cm -2 .s -1 , and counted with HPGe detector of gamma spectrometry. Several trace elements in these samples were detected. The accuracy and precision evaluation based on International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) criteria was applied. In this paper the PTNBR NAA laboratory results is evaluated. (author)

  16. Inter-comparison of GRACE data over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Chandan; Kumar, D. Nagesh

    2016-05-01

    The advent of satellite remote sensing and its use in hydrology has facilitated a huge leap in the understanding of the various water resources, its interaction with ecological systems and anthropogenic creations. Recently, NASA and German Aerospace Research Agency-DLR launched the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission consisting of two satellites. They measure the time varying gravity which gives changes in the distribution of mass on the surface of the earth which after removing atmospheric and oceanic effects is majorly caused by changes in Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) changes. GRACE data is generally available as spherical harmonic coefficients, which is difficult for hydrologists to understand and interpret. JPL's TELLUS website is now providing gridded global data set in the form of mass anomaly derived from the Level-2 data sets of spherical harmonic coefficients of 3 sources, viz. CSR, GFZ and JPL. Before using these data sets for solving hydrological problems, it is important to understand the differences and similarities between these data sets as direct calibration of GRACE data is not possible. In this study we do an inter-comparison of the Level-3 Release 05 data sets over India. We compare the data sets using Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation. CSR and GFZ data sets appear to be closest to each other whereas JPL and GFZ data sets are most different from each other.

  17. BRDF Characterization and Calibration Inter-Comparison between Terra MODIS, Aqua MODIS, and S-NPP VIIRS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tiejun; Xiong, Xiaoxiong (Jack); Angal, Amit; Wu, Aisheng

    2016-01-01

    The inter-comparison of reflective solar bands (RSB) between Terra MODIS, Aqua MODIS, and SNPP VIIRS is very important for assessment of each instrument's calibration and to identify calibration improvements. One of the limitations of using their ground observations for the assessment is a lack of the simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNOs) over selected pseudo-invariant targets. In addition, their measurements over a selected Earth view target have significant difference in solar and view angles, and these differences magnify the effects of Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF). In this work, an inter-comparison technique using a semi-empirical BRDF model is developed for reflectance correction. BRDF characterization requires a broad coverage of solar and view angles in the measurements over selected pseudo-invariant targets. Reflectance measurements over Libya 1, 2, and 4 desert sites from both the Aqua and Terra MODIS are regressed to a BRDF model with an adjustable coefficient accounting for the calibration difference between the two instruments. The BRDF coefficients for three desert sites for MODIS bands 1 to 9 are derived and the wavelength dependencies are presented. The analysis and inter-comparison are for MODIS bands 1 to 9 and VIIRS moderate resolution radiometric bands (M bands) M1, M2, M4, M5, M7, M8, M10 and imaging bands (I bands) I1-I3. Results show that the ratios from different sites are in good agreement. The ratios between Terra and Aqua MODIS from year 2003 to 2014 are presented. The inter-comparison between MODIS and VIIRS are analyzed for year 2014.

  18. Spatial inter-comparison of Top-down emission inventories in European urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombetti, Marco; Thunis, Philippe; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Clappier, Alain; Couvidat, Florian; Guevara, Marc; Kuenen, Jeroen; López-Aparicio, Susana

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents an inter-comparison of the main Top-down emission inventories currently used for air quality modelling studies at the European level. The comparison is developed for eleven European cities and compares the distribution of emissions of NOx, SO2, VOC and PPM2.5 from the road transport, residential combustion and industry sectors. The analysis shows that substantial differences in terms of total emissions, sectorial emission shares and spatial distribution exist between the datasets. The possible reasons in terms of downscaling approaches and choice of spatial proxies are analysed and recommendations are provided for each inventory in order to work towards the harmonisation of spatial downscaling and proxy calibration, in particular for policy purposes. The proposed methodology may be useful for the development of consistent and harmonised European-wide inventories with the aim of reducing the uncertainties in air quality modelling activities.

  19. GEO-LEO reflectance band inter-comparison with BRDF and atmospheric scattering corrections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tiejun; Xiong, Xiaoxiong Jack; Keller, Graziela; Wu, Xiangqian

    2017-09-01

    The inter-comparison of the reflective solar bands between the instruments onboard a geostationary orbit satellite and onboard a low Earth orbit satellite is very helpful to assess their calibration consistency. GOES-R was launched on November 19, 2016 and Himawari 8 was launched October 7, 2014. Unlike the previous GOES instruments, the Advanced Baseline Imager on GOES-16 (GOES-R became GOES-16 after November 29 when it reached orbit) and the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on Himawari 8 have onboard calibrators for the reflective solar bands. The assessment of calibration is important for their product quality enhancement. MODIS and VIIRS, with their stringent calibration requirements and excellent on-orbit calibration performance, provide good references. The simultaneous nadir overpass (SNO) and ray-matching are widely used inter-comparison methods for reflective solar bands. In this work, the inter-comparisons are performed over a pseudo-invariant target. The use of stable and uniform calibration sites provides comparison with appropriate reflectance level, accurate adjustment for band spectral coverage difference, reduction of impact from pixel mismatching, and consistency of BRDF and atmospheric correction. The site in this work is a desert site in Australia (latitude -29.0 South; longitude 139.8 East). Due to the difference in solar and view angles, two corrections are applied to have comparable measurements. The first is the atmospheric scattering correction. The satellite sensor measurements are top of atmosphere reflectance. The scattering, especially Rayleigh scattering, should be removed allowing the ground reflectance to be derived. Secondly, the angle differences magnify the BRDF effect. The ground reflectance should be corrected to have comparable measurements. The atmospheric correction is performed using a vector version of the Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum modeling and BRDF correction is performed using a semi

  20. Last interglacial temperature evolution – a model inter-comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, P.; Stone, E.J.; Charbit, S.; Gröger, M.; Krebs-Kanzow, U.; Ritz, S.P.; Varma, V.; Khon, S.; Lunt, D.J.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Prange, M.; Renssen, H.; Schneider, B.; Schulz, M.

    2013-01-01

    There is a growing number of proxy-based reconstructions detailing the climatic changes that occurred during the last interglacial period (LIG). This period is of special interest, because large parts of the globe were characterized by a warmer-than-present-day climate, making this period an

  1. Lessons learnt from participation in international inter-comparison exercise for environmental radioactivity measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jha, S.K.; Pulhani, Vandana; Sartandel, Sangeeta

    2016-06-01

    Environmental Radioactivity Measurement Section of Health Physics Division is regularly carrying out surveillance of the radioactivity concentration in the environment. The laboratory participates in the inter-comparison exercises conducted by various international agencies for quality assurance and quality control of analytical estimations. This report summarizes the results of the analysis of radioactivity in environmental matrices of the inter-comparison exercises. The participation in inter-comparison exercises has demonstrated competence in radionuclide identification and estimations, equivalence with the results of other participating laboratories, validated adopted analytical methods, introduced traceability to measurement etc. at national and international level. (author)

  2. Inter-comparison of MARS and FLUKA: Predictions on Energy Deposition in LHC IR Quadrupoles

    CERN Document Server

    Hoa, C; Cerutti, F; Ferrai, A

    2008-01-01

    Detailed modellings of the LHC insertion regions (IR) have earlier been performed to evaluate energy deposition in the IR superconducting magnets [1-4]. Proton-proton collisions at 14 TeV in the centre of mass lead to debris, depositing energy in the IR components. To evaluate uncertainties in those simulations and gain further confidence in the tools and approaches used, inter-comparison calculations have been performed with the latest versions of the FLUKA (2006.3b) [5, 6] and MARS15 [7, 8] Monte Carlo codes. These two codes, used worldwide for multi particle interaction and transport in accelerator, detector and shielding components, have been thoroughly benchmarked by the code authors and the user community (see, for example, recent [9, 10]). In the study described below, a better than 5% agreement was obtained for energy deposition calculated with these two codes - based on different independent physics models - for the identical geometry and initial conditions of a simple model representing the IR5 and ...

  3. Inter-comparison of MARS and FLUKA: Predictions on energy deposition in LHC IR quadrupoles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoa, Christine; Cerutti, F.; Ferrari, A.; Mokhov, N.V.

    2008-01-01

    Detailed modelings of the LHC insertion regions (IR) have earlier been performed to evaluate energy deposition in the IR superconducting magnets [1-4]. Proton-proton collisions at 14 TeV in the centre of mass lead to debris, depositing energy in the IR components. To evaluate uncertainties in those simulations and gain further confidence in the tools and approaches used, inter-comparison calculations have been performed with the latest versions of the FLUKA (2006.3b) [5, 6] and MARS15 [7, 8] Monte Carlo codes. These two codes, used worldwide for multi particle interaction and transport in accelerator, detector and shielding components, have been thoroughly benchmarked by the code authors and the user community (see, for example, recent [9, 10]). In the study described below, a better than 5% agreement was obtained for energy deposition calculated with these two codes--based on different independent physics models--for the identical geometry and initial conditions of a simple model representing the IR5 and its first quadrupole

  4. Projection Models 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Illerup, J. B.; Birr-Pedersen, K.; Mikkelsen, M. H

    Models for projection of SO2-, NOx-, NMVOC- and NH3-emissions to the atmosphere have been developed and the Danish emissions have been projected until 2010 from a basis scenario including all implemented and planned measures. The projections of the four pollutants indicate that it may be difficult...

  5. A River Model Intercomparison Project in Preparation for SWOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, C. H.; Andreadis, K.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Beighley, E.; Boone, A. A.; Yamazaki, D.; Paiva, R. C. D.; Fleischmann, A. S.; Collischonn, W.; Fisher, C. K.; Kim, H.; Biancamaria, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is currently scheduled to launch at the beginning of next decade. SWOT is expected to retrieve unprecedented measurements of water extent, elevation, and slope in the largest terrestrial water bodies. Such potential transformative information motivates the investigation of our ability to ingest the associated data into continental-scale models of terrestrial hydrology. In preparation for the expected SWOT observations, an inter-comparison of continental-scale river models is being performed. This comparison experiment focuses on four of the world's largest river basins: the Amazon, the Mississippi, the Niger, and the Saint-Lawrence. This ongoing project focuses on two main research questions: 1) How can we best prepare for the expected SWOT continental to global measurements before SWOT even flies?, and 2) What is the added value of including SWOT terrestrial measurements into global hydro models for enhancing our understanding of the terrestrial water cycle and the climate system? We present here the results of the second year of this project which now includes simulations from six numerical models of rivers over the Mississippi and sheds light on the implications of various modeling choices on simulation quality as well as on the potential impact of SWOT observations.

  6. Myanmar Model Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Heron, John

    1998-01-01

    The National Radiation Laboratory was approached by the IAEA in 1997 to provide assistance to the government of Myanmar, as part of the Model Project, in setting up an appropriate regulatory framework for radiation protection. To this end John Le Heron spent 3 weeks in late 1997 based at the Atomic Energy Department of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Yangon, assessing the existing legal framework, assisting with the review and design of the legal framework for consistency with the Basic Safety Standards, and assisting in the preparation of a system of notification, authorisation and inspection of radiation practices. (author)

  7. Participation of the Laboratorio de Radiotoxicologia of IPEN, SP, Brazil, in laboratory inter-comparison programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mesquita, Sueli Alexandra de; Carneiro, Janete Cristina G.

    2005-01-01

    The Radiotoxicology Laboratory (LRT) of IPEN/CNEN-SP has as mission to assess internal internal contamination from individuals through qualitative and quantitative analysis of radionuclides present in biological samples. The LRT is able to meet the demand for in vitro monitoring and radiological and nuclear emergencies, both in the case of occupational exposures, as individuals. With the purpose of increasing the reliability of the test results, and keeping it up to date on new analytical techniques, the LRT participates annually in two laboratory inter-comparison programs: a national, the PNI (Programa Nacional de Intercomparacao), promoted by IRD/CNEN and an international from PROCORAD (Association for the Promotion of Quality Controls in Radiotoxicological Bioassay). The present work shows the performance of the LRT by means of the results obtained in the exercises for the quantification of natural uranium and uranium isotopes, promoted by both the inter-comparison programs in the year of 2004. The analysis of the obtained results demonstrates the good performance achieved by LRT, and confirms the sustainability of its quality system, required in calibration and testing laboratories

  8. Naesliden project: FEM modelling strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borg, T.

    1980-05-15

    A schematized description is given of the different stages in the project. The aim is to show the development of the project and the strategies which have been chosen. The four different stages in the project are treated from the following points of view: the reasons for the choice of material models; the determination of model properties; and the control of the calculated values. In the origin plan for the project it was stated to only use a joint element model. However, it was shown to be a reasonable strategy to use both a general linear elastic model and a geometric restricted model with joint elements. During the course of the Project's development stages, it was found that a reduction in the number of rock types could be made without loss of generality. A modified strategy is suggested based on more studies of the rock bahavior and less advanced calculations in the first stages of the project.

  9. The effects of intervening interference on working memory for sound location as a function of inter-comparison interval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ries, Dennis T; Hamilton, Traci R; Grossmann, Aurora J

    2010-09-01

    This study examined the effects of inter-comparison interval duration and intervening interference on auditory working memory (AWM) for auditory location. Interaural phase differences were used to produce localization cues for tonal stimuli and the difference limen for interaural phase difference (DL-IPD) specified as the equivalent angle of incidence between two sound sources was measured in five different conditions. These conditions consisted of three different inter-comparison intervals [300 ms (short), 5000 ms (medium), and 15,000 ms (long)], the medium and long of which were presented both in the presence and absence of intervening tones. The presence of intervening stimuli within the medium and long inter-comparison intervals produced a significant increase in the DL-IPD compared to the medium and long inter-comparison intervals condition without intervening tones. The result obtained in the condition with a short inter-comparison interval was roughly equivalent to that obtained for the medium inter-comparison interval without intervening tones. These results suggest that the ability to retain information about the location of a sound within AWM decays slowly; however, the presence of intervening sounds readily disrupts the retention process. Overall, the results suggest that the temporal decay of information within AWM regarding the location of a sound from a listener's environment is so gradual that it can be maintained in trace memory for tens of seconds in the absence of intervening acoustic signals. Conversely, the presence of intervening sounds within the retention interval may facilitate the use of context memory, even for shorter retention intervals, resulting in a less detailed, but relevant representation of the location that is resistant to further degradation. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. An initial limited biodosimetry inter-comparison exercise: FOI and DRDC Ottawa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, D.; Wilkinson, D.; Arvidsson, E.; Prud'homme-Lalonde, L.; Thorleifson, E.; Mullins, D.; Lachapelle, S.

    2007-01-01

    While biodosimetry is a valuable tool in radiation dose assessment, the dicentric assay, which is the most validated method to date, requires some degree of technical competence. Recently published ISO guidelines indicate the need for documenting competence and establishment of quality control programs. Inter-laboratory comparisons are required to document the ability to perform reproducible and accurate assessments. FOI and DRDC Ottawa have conducted an initial limited biodosimetry exercise inter-comparison for quality assurance purposes. The exercise involved blinded exchange of three previously prepared slides from each laboratory from samples that had been evaluated for each lab's dose-response curve. Approximately 100 cells from each slide were evaluated and aberration frequencies reported and compared to the expected frequencies. The limited number of cells evaluated for each sample could not permit statistically distinguishing a 20% difference in all the samples. However, the results indicated reasonable agreement in analyses for all samples for triage purposes. Comparison of aberration frequencies, rather than dose estimates, further illustrates consistent scoring criteria between the two laboratories. The exercise conducted by FOI and DRDC Ottawa provided an efficient means of documenting expertise. Such cooperation further establishes the international biodosimetry network and ensures our readiness for emergency response

  11. Regional inter-comparison of measurements of personal dose equivalent Hp(10) using photon beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bero, M.; Zahili, M.; Kharita, M.H.

    2012-11-01

    The overall objective is to verify performance and to improve the Individual Monitoring services (IMS). This can be achieved with the following specific objectives of the intercomparison:1. To assess the capabilities of the dosimetry services to measure the quantity H p (10) in photon (gamma and x-ray) fields. 2. To help the participating Member States in achieving sufficiently accurate dosimetry service and, if necessary, 3. To provide guidelines for improvements and not simply a test of the performance of the existing dosimetric service. Actually a significant improvement has been achieved by the participants in the accuracy of evaluating personal dose equivalent from 15% in the first phase to 5% in the second phase. Some participants used the results of the inter-comparison to verify the calibration and to improve their dosimetric procedures, but from the results it was clear that some participants need to a technical support especially in calibration and using their measuring system in the field of personal monitoring. The conclusion contains advises, solutions, propositions and evaluation for all situations which noticed during the intercomparison. (authors)

  12. GOSAT and OCO-2 Inter-comparison on Measured Spectral Radiance and Retrieved Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kataoka, F.; Kuze, A.; Shiomi, K.; Suto, H.; Crisp, D.; Bruegge, C. J.; Schwandner, F. M.

    2016-12-01

    TANSO-FTS onboard GOSAT and grating spectrometer on OCO-2 use different measurement techniques to measure carbon dioxide (CO2) and molecular oxygen (O2). Both instruments observe sunlight reflected from the Earth's surface in almost the same spectral range. As a first step in cross calibrating these two instruments, we compared spectral radiance observations within the three short wave infrared (SWIR) spectral bands centered on the O2 A-band (O2A), the weak CO2 band near 1.6 microns (Weak-CO2) and 2.06 micons (Strong-CO2) bands at temporally coincident and spatially collocated points. In this work, we reconciled the different size of the footprints and evaluated at various types of surface targets such as ocean, desert and forest. For radiometric inter-comparisons, we consider long term instrument sensitivity degradation in orbit and differences in viewing geometry and associated differences in surface bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). Measured spectral radiances agree very well within 5% for all bands. This presentation will summarize these comparisons of GOSAT and OCO-2 spectral radiance observations and associated estimates of carbon dioxide and related parameters retrieved with the same algorithm at matchup points. We will also discuss instrument related uncertainties from various target observations.

  13. The INTRACOIN model comparison project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawson, G.

    1982-01-01

    The International Nuclide Transport Code Intercomparison (INTRACOIN) project is investigating the different models and associated computer codes describing the transport of radionuclides in flowing ground-water following the disposal of solid radioactive wastes in geologic formations. Level I of the project has shown good agreement in the numerical accuracy of most of the codes. In Level II the ability of the codes to model field experiments with radioactive tracers will be compared. Level III will show to what extent the adoption of different models and computer codes for the transport of radionuclides with ground water affects the results of repository assessments. (U.K.)

  14. Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Zulkafli, Z.; Buytaert, W.; Manz, B.; Rosas, C. V.; Willems, P.; Lavado-Casimiro, W.; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

    2016-01-01

    The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the Western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming...

  15. Knowledge Model: Project Knowledge Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter; Grolin, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    The Knowledge model for project management serves several goals:Introducing relevant concepts of project management area for software development (Section 1). Reviewing and understanding the real case requirements from the industrial perspective. (Section 2). Giving some preliminary suggestions...... for usage in KIWI system (Sections 3). This document is intended for technological partners to understand how for example the software development concepts can be applied to a semantic wiki framework....

  16. Validation and Inter-comparison Against Observations of GODAE Ocean View Ocean Prediction Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, J.; Davidson, F. J. M.; Smith, G. C.; Lu, Y.; Hernandez, F.; Regnier, C.; Drevillon, M.; Ryan, A.; Martin, M.; Spindler, T. D.; Brassington, G. B.; Oke, P. R.

    2016-02-01

    For weather forecasts, validation of forecast performance is done at the end user level as well as by the meteorological forecast centers. In the development of Ocean Prediction Capacity, the same level of care for ocean forecast performance and validation is needed. Herein we present results from a validation against observations of 6 Global Ocean Forecast Systems under the GODAE OceanView International Collaboration Network. These systems include the Global Ocean Ice Forecast System (GIOPS) developed by the Government of Canada, two systems PSY3 and PSY4 from the French Mercator-Ocean Ocean Forecasting Group, the FOAM system from UK met office, HYCOM-RTOFS from NOAA/NCEP/NWA of USA, and the Australian Bluelink-OceanMAPS system from the CSIRO, the Australian Meteorological Bureau and the Australian Navy.The observation data used in the comparison are sea surface temperature, sub-surface temperature, sub-surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and sea ice total concentration data. Results of the inter-comparison demonstrate forecast performance limits, strengths and weaknesses of each of the six systems. This work establishes validation protocols and routines by which all new prediction systems developed under the CONCEPTS Collaborative Network will be benchmarked prior to approval for operations. This includes anticipated delivery of CONCEPTS regional prediction systems over the next two years including a pan Canadian 1/12th degree resolution ice ocean prediction system and limited area 1/36th degree resolution prediction systems. The validation approach of comparing forecasts to observations at the time and location of the observation is called Class 4 metrics. It has been adopted by major international ocean prediction centers, and will be recommended to JCOMM-WMO as routine validation approach for operational oceanography worldwide.

  17. Inter comparison of REPAS and APSRA methodologies for passive system reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solanki, R.B.; Krishnamurthy, P.R.; Singh, Suneet; Varde, P.V.; Verma, A.K.

    2014-01-01

    The increasing use of passive systems in the innovative nuclear reactors puts demand on the estimation of the reliability assessment of these passive systems. The passive systems operate on the driving forces such as natural circulation, gravity, internal stored energy etc. which are moderately weaker than that of active components. Hence, phenomenological failures (virtual components) are equally important as that of equipment failures (real components) in the evaluation of passive systems reliability. The contribution of the mechanical components to the passive system reliability can be evaluated in a classical way using the available component reliability database and well known methods. On the other hand, different methods are required to evaluate the reliability of processes like thermohydraulics due to lack of adequate failure data. The research is ongoing worldwide on the reliability assessment of the passive systems and their integration into PSA, however consensus is not reached. Two of the most widely used methods are Reliability Evaluation of Passive Systems (REPAS) and Assessment of Passive System Reliability (APSRA). Both these methods characterize the uncertainties involved in the design and process parameters governing the function of the passive system. However, these methods differ in the quantification of passive system reliability. Inter comparison among different available methods provides useful insights into the strength and weakness of different methods. This paper highlights the results of the thermal hydraulic analysis of a typical passive isolation condenser system carried out using RELAP mode 3.2 computer code applying REPAS and APSRA methodologies. The failure surface is established for the passive system under consideration and system reliability has also been evaluated using these methods. Challenges involved in passive system reliabilities are identified, which require further attention in order to overcome the shortcomings of these

  18. Inter-comparison of lidar and ceilometer retrievals for aerosol and Planetary Boundary Layer profiling over Athens, Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Tsaknakis

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an inter-comparison of two active remote sensors (lidar and ceilometer to determine the mixing layer height and structure of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL and to retrieve tropospheric aerosol vertical profiles over Athens, Greece. This inter-comparison was performed under various strongly different aerosol loads/types (urban air pollution, biomass burning and Saharan dust event, implementing two different lidar systems (one portable Raymetrics S.A. lidar system running at 355 nm and one multi-wavelength Raman lidar system running at 355 nm, 532 nm and 1064 nm and one CL31 Vaisala S.A. ceilometer (running at 910 nm. Spectral conversions of the ceilometer's data were performed using the Ångström exponent estimated by ultraviolet multi-filter radiometer (UV-MFR measurements. The inter-comparison was based on two parameters: the mixing layer height determined by the presence of the suspended aerosols and the attenuated backscatter coefficient. Additionally, radiosonde data were used to derive the PBL height. In general, a good agreement was found between the ceilometer and the lidar techniques in both inter-compared parameters in the height range from 500 m to 5000 m, while the limitations of each instrument are also examined.

  19. GLM Proxy Data Generation: Methods for Stroke/Pulse Level Inter-Comparison of Ground-Based Lightning Reference Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummins, Kenneth L.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Christopher J.; Bateman, Monte G.; Cecil, Daniel J.; Rudlosky, Scott D.; Petersen, Walter Arthur; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

    2011-01-01

    In order to produce useful proxy data for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) in regions not covered by VLF lightning mapping systems, we intend to employ data produced by ground-based (regional or global) VLF/LF lightning detection networks. Before using these data in GLM Risk Reduction tasks, it is necessary to have a quantitative understanding of the performance of these networks, in terms of CG flash/stroke DE, cloud flash/pulse DE, location accuracy, and CLD/CG classification error. This information is being obtained through inter-comparison with LMAs and well-quantified VLF/LF lightning networks. One of our approaches is to compare "bulk" counting statistics on the spatial scale of convective cells, in order to both quantify relative performance and observe variations in cell-based temporal trends provided by each network. In addition, we are using microsecond-level stroke/pulse time correlation to facilitate detailed inter-comparisons at a more-fundamental level. The current development status of our ground-based inter-comparison and evaluation tools will be presented, and performance metrics will be discussed through a comparison of Vaisala s Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) with the NLDN at locations within and outside the U.S.

  20. CECILIA regional climate simulations for the present climate: validation and inter-comparison

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Skalák, Petr; Déqué, M.; Belda, M.; Farda, Aleš; Halenka, T.; Csima, G.; Bartholy, J.; Caian, M.; Spiridonov, V.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2014), s. 1-12 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : RCM * Model performance * Validation * CECILIA * ALADIN-Climate * RegCM3 Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.496, year: 2014

  1. ADMS-AIRPORT: MODEL INTER-COMPARISIONS AND MODEL VALIDATION

    OpenAIRE

    Carruthers, David; McHugh, Christine; Church, Stephanie; Jackson, Mark; Williams, Matt; Price, Catheryn; Lad, Chetan

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: The functionality of ADMS-Airport and details of its use in the Model Inter-comparison Study of the Project for the Sustainable Development of Heathrow Airport (PSDH) have previously been presented, Carruthers et al (2007). A distinguishing feature is the treatment of jet engine emissions as moving jet sources rather than averaging these emissions into volume sources as is the case in some other models. In this presentation two further studies are presented which each contribu...

  2. An inter-comparison of model-simulated east–west climate gradients ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-04-11

    Apr 11, 2010 ... This study examines how the east–west gradient of climate over South Africa is represented in terms of ... ate troughs that induce NW-oriented cloud bands across the ..... To reduce the influence of product resolution on the.

  3. Catchment Models and Management Tools for diffuse Contaminants (Sediment, Phosphorus and Pesticides): DIFFUSE Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, Eva; Reaney, Simeon; Mellander, Per-Erik; Wade, Andrew; Collins, Adrian; Arheimer, Berit; Bruen, Michael

    2017-04-01

    -of-the-art methods and models that are most applicable to Irish conditions and management challenges. All styles of modelling considered useful for water resources management are relevant to this project and a balance of technical sophistication, data availability and operational practicalities is the ultimate goal. Achievement of this objective will be measured by comparing the performance of the new models developed in the project with models used in other countries. The models and tools developed in the course of the project will be evaluated by comparison with Irish catchment data and with other state-of-the-art models in a model-inter-comparison workshop which will be open to other models and the wider research community.

  4. Spiral model pilot project information model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    The objective was an evaluation of the Spiral Model (SM) development approach to allow NASA Marshall to develop an experience base of that software management methodology. A discussion is presented of the Information Model (IM) that was used as part of the SM methodology. A key concept of the SM is the establishment of an IM to be used by management to track the progress of a project. The IM is the set of metrics that is to be measured and reported throughout the life of the project. These metrics measure both the product and the process to ensure the quality of the final delivery item and to ensure the project met programmatic guidelines. The beauty of the SM, along with the IM, is the ability to measure not only the correctness of the specification and implementation of the requirements but to also obtain a measure of customer satisfaction.

  5. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  6. MODELS OF PROJECT REVERSE ENGINEERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Віктор Володимирович ІВАНОВ

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Reverse engineering decided important scientific and technical problems of increasing the cost of the existing technical product by transforming it into a product with other features or design. Search ideas of the new application of existing products on the base of heuristic analysis were created. The concept of reverse engineering and its division into three types: conceptual, aggregate and complete was expanded. The use of heuristic methods for reverse engineering concept was showed. The modification model of Reverse engineering based on the model of РМВОК was developed. Our model includes two new phases: identification and transformation. At the identification phase, technical control is made. At the transformation phase, search heuristic idea of the new applied existing technical product was made. The model of execution phase that included heuristic methods, metrological equipment, and CAD/CAM/CAE program complex was created. The model that connected economic indicators of reverse engineering project was developed.

  7. The PASS project architectural model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, C.T.; Loken, S.; Macfarlane, J.F.

    1994-01-01

    The PASS project has as its goal the implementation of solutions to the foreseen data access problems of the next generation of scientific experiments. The architectural model results from an evaluation of the operational and technical requirements and is described in terms of an abstract reference model, an implementation model and a discussion of some design aspects. The abstract reference model describes a system that matches the requirements in terms of its components and the mechanisms by which they communicate, but does not discuss policy or design issues that would be necessary to match the model to an actual implementation. Some of these issues are discussed, but more detailed design and simulation work will be necessary before choices can be made

  8. Solid Waste Projection Model: Model user's guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stiles, D.L.; Crow, V.L.

    1990-08-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford company (WHC) specifically to address solid waste management issues at the Hanford Central Waste Complex (HCWC). This document, one of six documents supporting the SWPM system, contains a description of the system and instructions for preparing to use SWPM and operating Version 1 of the model. 4 figs., 1 tab

  9. The InterFrost benchmark of Thermo-Hydraulic codes for cold regions hydrology - first inter-comparison results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenier, Christophe; Roux, Nicolas; Anbergen, Hauke; Collier, Nathaniel; Costard, Francois; Ferrry, Michel; Frampton, Andrew; Frederick, Jennifer; Holmen, Johan; Jost, Anne; Kokh, Samuel; Kurylyk, Barret; McKenzie, Jeffrey; Molson, John; Orgogozo, Laurent; Rivière, Agnès; Rühaak, Wolfram; Selroos, Jan-Olof; Therrien, René; Vidstrand, Patrik

    2015-04-01

    range from simpler, purely thermal cases (benchmark T1) to more complex, coupled 2D TH cases (benchmarks TH1, TH2, and TH3). Some experimental cases conducted in cold room complement the validation approach. A web site hosted by LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) is an interaction platform for the participants and hosts the test cases database at the following address: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/interfrost. The results of the first stage of the benchmark exercise will be presented. We will mainly focus on the inter-comparison of participant results for the coupled cases (TH1, TH2 & TH3). Further perspectives of the exercise will also be presented. Extensions to more complex physical conditions (e.g. unsaturated conditions and geometrical deformations) are contemplated. In addition, 1D vertical cases of interest to the Climate Modeling community will be proposed. Keywords: Permafrost; Numerical modeling; River-soil interaction; Arctic systems; soil freeze-thaw

  10. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  11. Inter comparison of 90Sr and 137Cs contents in biologic samples and natural U in soil samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Jianfen; Zeng Guangjian; Lu Xuequan

    2001-01-01

    The results of the 90 Sr and 137 Cs contents in biologic samples and the natural U in soil samples obtained in a joint effort by fourteen environmental radiation laboratories in the Chinese environmental protection system were analyzed and compared. Two kinds of biologic samples and one kind of soil samples were used for inter comparison. Of which, one kind of biologic samples (biologic powder samples) and the soil samples came from the IAEA samples were environmental and the reference values were known. The another kind of biologic samples were environmental tea-leaf that were taken from a tea garden near Hangzhou. The mean values obtained by all the joined laboratories was used as the reference. The inter comparison results were expressed in terms of the deviation from the reference value. It was found that the deviation of the 90 Sr and 137 Cs contents of biologic powder samples ranged from -15.4% to 26.5% and -15.0% to 0.4%, respectively. The deviation of the natural U content ranged from -25.5% to 7.3% for the soil samples. For the tea-leaf, the 90 Sr deviation was -22.7% to 19.1%, and the 137 Cs data had a relative large scatter with a ratio of the maximum and the minimum values being about 7. It was pointed out that the analysis results offered by different laboratories might have involved system errors

  12. INDICATIVE MODEL OF DEVIATIONS IN PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олена Борисівна ДАНЧЕНКО

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the process of constructing the project deviations indicator model. It based on a conceptual model of project deviations integrated management (PDIM. During the project different causes (such as risks, changes, problems, crises, conflicts, stress lead to deviations of integrated project indicators - time, cost, quality, and content. For a more detailed definition of where in the project deviations occur and how they are dangerous for the whole project, it needs to develop an indicative model of project deviations. It allows identifying the most dangerous deviations that require PDIM. As a basis for evaluation of project's success has been taken famous model IPMA Delta. During the evaluation, IPMA Delta estimated project management competence of organization in three modules: I-Module ("Individuals" - a self-assessment personnel, P-module ("Projects" - self-assessment of projects and/or programs, and O-module ("Organization" - used to conduct interviews with selected people during auditing company. In the process of building an indicative model of deviations in the project, the first step is the assessment of project management in the organization by IPMA Delta. In the future, built cognitive map and matrix of system interconnections of the project, which conducted simulations and built a scale of deviations for the selected project. They determined a size and place of deviations. To identify the detailed causes of deviations in the project management has been proposed to use the extended system of indicators, which is based on indicators of project management model Project Excellence. The proposed indicative model of deviations in projects allows to estimate the size of variation and more accurately identify the place of negative deviations in the project and provides the project manager information for operational decision making for the management of deviations in the implementation of the project

  13. W-320 Project thermal modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathyanarayana, K., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-18

    This report summarizes the results of thermal analysis performed to provide a technical basis in support of Project W-320 to retrieve by sluicing the sludge in Tank 241-C-106 and to transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. Prior theraml evaluations in support of Project W-320 safety analysis assumed the availability of 2000 to 3000 CFM, as provided by Tank Farm Operations, for tank floor cooling channels from the secondary ventilation system. As this flow availability has no technical basis, a detailed Tank 241-AY-102 secondary ventilation and floor coating channel flow model was developed and analysis was performed. The results of the analysis show that only about 150 cfm flow is in floor cooLing channels. Tank 241-AY-102 thermal evaluation was performed to determine the necessary cooling flow for floor cooling channels using W-030 primary ventilation system for different quantities of Tank 241-C-106 sludge transfer into Tank 241-AY-102. These sludge transfers meet different options for the project along with minimum required modification of the ventilation system. Also the results of analysis for the amount of sludge transfer using the current system is presented. The effect of sludge fluffing factor, heat generation rate and its distribution between supernatant and sludge in Tank 241-AY-102 on the amount of sludge transfer from Tank 241-C-106 were evaluated and the results are discussed. Also transient thermal analysis was performed to estimate the time to reach the steady state. For a 2 feet sludge transfer, about 3 months time will be requirad to reach steady state. Therefore, for the purpose of process control, a detailed transient thermal analysis using GOTH Computer Code will be required to determine transient response of the sludge in Tank 241-AY-102. Process control considerations are also discussed to eliminate the potential for a steam bump during retrieval and storage in Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102 respectively.

  14. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which functions as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project. The presentation of RSF is demonstrated by using an appraisal case concerning a new airfield in the capital of Greenland, Nuuk....

  15. Projections of Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP5 Models over BIMSTEC Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Ragi, A. R.

    2014-12-01

    Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

  16. Sharks, Minnows, and Wheelbarrows: Calculus Modeling Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Michael D.

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present two very active applied modeling projects that were successfully implemented in a first semester calculus course at Hollins University. The first project uses a logistic equation to model the spread of a new disease such as swine flu. The second project is a human take on the popular article "Do Dogs Know…

  17. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project ..... help a manager handle stress and break tension (Gido & Clements,. 2012: 331; Harrin .... production and management of projects, the higher the demand for.

  18. ENES the European Network for Earth System modelling and its infrastructure projects IS-ENES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmo, Francesca; Joussaume, Sylvie; Parinet, Marie

    2016-04-01

    The scientific community working on climate modelling is organized within the European Network for Earth System modelling (ENES). In the past decade, several European university departments, research centres, meteorological services, computer centres, and industrial partners engaged in the creation of ENES with the purpose of working together and cooperating towards the further development of the network, by signing a Memorandum of Understanding. As of 2015, the consortium counts 47 partners. The climate modelling community, and thus ENES, faces challenges which are both science-driven, i.e. analysing of the full complexity of the Earth System to improve our understanding and prediction of climate changes, and have multi-faceted societal implications, as a better representation of climate change on regional scales leads to improved understanding and prediction of impacts and to the development and provision of climate services. ENES, promoting and endorsing projects and initiatives, helps in developing and evaluating of state-of-the-art climate and Earth system models, facilitates model inter-comparison studies, encourages exchanges of software and model results, and fosters the use of high performance computing facilities dedicated to high-resolution multi-model experiments. ENES brings together public and private partners, integrates countries underrepresented in climate modelling studies, and reaches out to different user communities, thus enhancing European expertise and competitiveness. In this need of sophisticated models, world-class, high-performance computers, and state-of-the-art software solutions to make efficient use of models, data and hardware, a key role is played by the constitution and maintenance of a solid infrastructure, developing and providing services to the different user communities. ENES has investigated the infrastructural needs and has received funding from the EU FP7 program for the IS-ENES (InfraStructure for ENES) phase I and II

  19. AIGO: Towards a unified framework for the Analysis and the Inter-comparison of GO functional annotations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defoin-Platel Michael

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In response to the rapid growth of available genome sequences, efforts have been made to develop automatic inference methods to functionally characterize them. Pipelines that infer functional annotation are now routinely used to produce new annotations at a genome scale and for a broad variety of species. These pipelines differ widely in their inference algorithms, confidence thresholds and data sources for reasoning. This heterogeneity makes a comparison of the relative merits of each approach extremely complex. The evaluation of the quality of the resultant annotations is also challenging given there is often no existing gold-standard against which to evaluate precision and recall. Results In this paper, we present a pragmatic approach to the study of functional annotations. An ensemble of 12 metrics, describing various aspects of functional annotations, is defined and implemented in a unified framework, which facilitates their systematic analysis and inter-comparison. The use of this framework is demonstrated on three illustrative examples: analysing the outputs of state-of-the-art inference pipelines, comparing electronic versus manual annotation methods, and monitoring the evolution of publicly available functional annotations. The framework is part of the AIGO library (http://code.google.com/p/aigo for the Analysis and the Inter-comparison of the products of Gene Ontology (GO annotation pipelines. The AIGO library also provides functionalities to easily load, analyse, manipulate and compare functional annotations and also to plot and export the results of the analysis in various formats. Conclusions This work is a step toward developing a unified framework for the systematic study of GO functional annotations. This framework has been designed so that new metrics on GO functional annotations can be added in a very straightforward way.

  20. Water vapour inter-comparison effort in the framework of the hydrological cycle in the mediterranean experiment - special observation period (hymex-sop1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summa, Donato; Di Girolamo, Paolo; Flamant, Cyrille; De Rosa, Benedetto; Cacciani, Marco; Stelitano, Dario

    2018-04-01

    Accurate measurements of the vertical profiles of water vapour are of paramount importance for most key areas of atmospheric sciences. A comprehensive inter-comparison between different remote sensing and in-situ sensors has been carried out in the frame work of the first Special Observing Period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment for the purpose of obtaining accurate error estimates for these sensors. The inter-comparison involves a ground-based Raman lidar (BASIL), an airborne DIAL (LEANDRE2), a microwave radiometer, radiosondes and aircraft in-situ sensors.

  1. Water vapour inter-comparison effort in the framework of the hydrological cycle in the mediterranean experiment – special observation period (hymex-sop1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Summa Donato

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate measurements of the vertical profiles of water vapour are of paramount importance for most key areas of atmospheric sciences. A comprehensive inter-comparison between different remote sensing and in-situ sensors has been carried out in the frame work of the first Special Observing Period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment for the purpose of obtaining accurate error estimates for these sensors. The inter-comparison involves a ground-based Raman lidar (BASIL, an airborne DIAL (LEANDRE2, a microwave radiometer, radiosondes and aircraft in-situ sensors.

  2. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  3. Application of k0-based internal monostandard NAA for large sample analysis of clay pottery. As a part of inter comparison exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acharya, R.; Dasari, K.B.; Pujari, P.K.; Swain, K.K.; Shinde, A.D.; Reddy, A.V.R.

    2014-01-01

    As a part of inter comparison exercise of an IAEA Coordinated Research Project on large sample neutron activation analysis, a large size and non standard geometry size pottery replica (obtained from Peru) was analyzed by k 0 -based internal monostandard neutron activation analysis (IM-NAA). Two large size sub samples (0.40 and 0.25 kg) were irradiated at graphite reflector position of AHWR Critical Facility in BARC, Trombay, Mumbai, India. Small samples (100-200 mg) were also analyzed by IM-NAA for comparison purpose. Radioactive assay was carried out using a 40 % relative efficiency HPGe detector. To examine homogeneity of the sample, counting was also carried out using X-Z rotary scanning unit. In situ relative detection efficiency was evaluated using gamma rays of the activation products in the irradiated sample in the energy range of 122-2,754 keV. Elemental concentration ratios with respect to Na of small size (100 mg mass) as well as large size (15 and 400 g) samples were used to check the homogeneity of the samples. Concentration ratios of 18 elements such as K, Sc, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Zn, As, Rb, Cs, La, Ce, Sm, Eu, Yb, Lu, Hf and Th with respect to Na (internal mono standard) were calculated using IM-NAA. Absolute concentrations were arrived at for both large and small samples using Na concentration, obtained from relative method of NAA. The percentage combined uncertainties at ±1 s confidence limit on the determined values were in the range of 3-9 %. Two IAEA reference materials SL-1 and SL-3 were analyzed by IM-NAA to evaluate accuracy of the method. (author)

  4. Evolution of chemical specifications following the working group of international inter-comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leduc-Brunet, Murielle; Gressier, F.; Mole, D.; Massias, O.; Marescot, O.; Bretelle, Jean Luc

    2012-09-01

    As part of a continuous improvement process and the inclusion of Experience Feedback, EDF has launched a working group to analyse its reference of Chemical Specifications with regard to the guidelines of EPRI and VGB.. As a result of the analysis of over 1000 lines of specifications, a large number of recommendations were issued, referring either to control of new chemical parameters or to an enhancement of measurement frequencies. These recommendations are to be developed by preliminary studies which will provide supporting evidence for future decisions. To implement these recommendations, EDF launched a dedicated project in 2011, whose main objectives were to: - raise the requirements of chemical specifications in line with international standards and compare the technical basis of the different international standards, - strengthen monitoring and anticipation of corrective actions in the field of plant chemistry with a view to extending nuclear plant lifetime to 60 years. This project, scheduled for 2011 to 2016, covers the following activities: - studies on the technical background of the specifications (2011-14), - study of the possibility of adopting an 'Actions Levels' approach in EDF's own specifications (2012-14), - new propositions evolution of the specifications (2015-16). (authors)

  5. Competency model for the project managers of technical projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, William R.

    1992-05-01

    Traditional job description techniques were developed to support compensation decisions for hourly wage earners in a manufacturing environment. Their resultant focus on activities performed on the job works well in this environment where the ability to perform the activity adequately is objectively verifiable by testing and observation. Although many organizations have adapted these techniques for salaried employees and service environments, the focus on activities performed has never been satisfactory. For example, stating that a project manager `prepares regular project status reports' tells us little about what to look for in a potential project manager or how to determine if a practicing project manager is ready for additional responsibilities. The concept of a `competency model' has been developed within the last decade to address this shortcoming. Competency models focus on what skills are needed to perform the tasks defined by the job description. For example, a project manager must be able to communicate well both orally and in writing in order to `prepare regular project status reports.'

  6. Report on RUNE’s coastal experiment and first inter-comparisons between measurements systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Floors, Rogier Ralph; Lea, Guillaume; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

    Accurate description of the wind energy resource in the coastal zone is crucial for countries developing near-shore wind farms. The RUNE experiment aims to use lidar measurements and mesoscale modelling to study the behaviour of the flow in the coastal zone and find the most effective way...

  7. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  8. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO) (Figure 1). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES) provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report

  9. An Inter-Comparison of the Holiday Climate Index (HCI and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Scott

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Much research has been devoted to quantifying optimal or unacceptable climate conditions both generally and for specific tourism segments or activities over the last 10 years. This knowledge is not incorporated in the Tourism Climate Index (TCI, which has also been subject to other substantial critiques. To more accurately assess the climatic suitability of destinations for leisure tourism, the Holiday Climate Index (HCI was developed. A major advancement of the HCI is that its variable rating scales and the component weighting system are based on this aforementioned literature of tourists’ stated climatic preferences. This paper will discuss the design of the HCI and how the limitations of the TCI were overcome. It then presents an inter-comparison of the results from HCI:Urban and TCI for geographically diverse urban destinations across Europe. The results illustrate how the HCI:Urban rates the climate of many cities higher than the TCI, particularly in shoulder seasons and the winter months, which is more consistent with observed visitation patterns. The results empirically demonstrate that use of the TCI should be discontinued.

  10. Regionally Optimized GRACE Processing and Inter-comparison on the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohajerani, Y.; Velicogna, I.; Sutterley, T. C.; Rignot, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate, with a sea level contribution that changed from 0.08mm/yr from 1992 to 2001 to 0.4mm/yr from 2002 to 2011. While most of this contribution comes from West Antarctica, Totten Glacier has the largest discharge of ice in East Antarctica, with a sea level rise potential of 3.9 m. Furthermore, the drainage basin of Totten Glacier, along the neighboring Moscow University Glacier are below sea level, extending hundreds of kilometers inland. Therefore, obtaining regional estimates of both western and eastern Antarctic basins are of critical importance. The GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite has been providing mass balance time-series from geoid changes since 2002. Several mascon and harmonic GRACE solutions are available from different processing centers. Here, we evaluate the various solutions across the ice sheet and a new set of regionally optimized mascons to study the mass balance of Totten and Moscow University glaciers. We obtain a trend of -16.5±4.1Gt/yr with an acceleration of -2.0±1.8Gt/yr2 for the two glaciers for the period April 2002 to December 2016 using the Ivins et al (2013) GIA model (errors include leakage, GIA, and regression errors). We compare the results with the Mass Budget Method that combines ice discharge (D) and surface mass balance (SMB) from two models: 1) RACMO2.3, and 2) MAR3.6.4. MBM/RACMO2.3 shows the best agreement with the GRACE estimates. Within the common period from April 2002 to December 2015, the MBM/RACMO2.3 and MAR3.6.4 results are -15.6±1.8Gt/yr and -6.7±1.5Gt/yr respectively, while the GRACE time-series has a trend of -14.8±2.7 Gt/yr. We extend the study to the Getz Ice Shelf, the third largest ice shelf in West Antarctica after Ronne and Ross West ice shelves. We compare our gravity-derived mass estimates, the mass budget estimates, and the volume changes from altimetry data to compare the estimates and obtain a multi-sensor assessment

  11. K3 projective models in scrolls

    CERN Document Server

    Johnsen, Trygve

    2004-01-01

    The exposition studies projective models of K3 surfaces whose hyperplane sections are non-Clifford general curves. These models are contained in rational normal scrolls. The exposition supplements standard descriptions of models of general K3 surfaces in projective spaces of low dimension, and leads to a classification of K3 surfaces in projective spaces of dimension at most 10. The authors bring further the ideas in Saint-Donat's classical article from 1974, lifting results from canonical curves to K3 surfaces and incorporating much of the Brill-Noether theory of curves and theory of syzygies developed in the mean time.

  12. Inter-comparison of different direct and indirect methods to determine radon flux from soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grossi, C.; Vargas, A.; Camacho, A.; Lopez-Coto, I.; Bolivar, J.P.; Xia Yu; Conen, F.

    2011-01-01

    The physical and chemical characteristics of radon gas make it a good tracer for use in the application of atmospheric transport models. For this purpose the radon source needs to be known on a global scale and this is difficult to achieve by only direct experimental methods. However, indirect methods can provide radon flux maps on larger scales, but their reliability has to be carefully checked. It is the aim of this work to compare radon flux values obtained by direct and indirect methods in a measurement campaign performed in the summer of 2008. Different systems to directly measure radon flux from the soil surface and to measure the related parameters terrestrial γ dose and 226 Ra activity in soil, for indirect estimation of radon flux, were tested. Four eastern Spanish sites with different geological and soil characteristics were selected: Teruel, Los Pedrones, Quintanar de la Orden and Madrid. The study shows the usefulness of both direct and indirect methods for obtaining radon flux data. Direct radon flux measurements by continuous and integrated monitors showed a coefficient of variation between 10% and 23%. At the same time, indirect methods based on correlations between 222 Rn and terrestrial γ dose rate, or 226 Ra activity in soil, provided results similar to the direct measurements, when these proxies were directly measured at the site. Larger discrepancies were found when proxy values were extracted from existing data bases. The participating members involved in the campaign study were the Institute of Energy Technology (INTE) of the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC), Huelva University (UHU), and Basel University (BASEL).

  13. Inter-comparison of interpolated background nitrogen dioxide concentrations across Greater Manchester, UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindley, S. J.; Walsh, T.

    There are many modelling methods dedicated to the estimation of spatial patterns in pollutant concentrations, each with their distinctive advantages and disadvantages. The derivation of a surface of air quality values from monitoring data alone requires the conversion of point-based data from a limited number of monitoring stations to a continuous surface using interpolation. Since interpolation techniques involve the estimation of data at un-sampled points based on calculated relationships between data measured at a number of known sample points, they are subject to some uncertainty, both in terms of the values estimated and their spatial distribution. These uncertainties, which are incorporated into many empirical and semi-empirical mapping methodologies, could be recognised in any further usage of the data and also in the assessment of the extent of an exceedence of an air quality standard and the degree of exposure this may represent. There is a wide range of available interpolation techniques and the differences in the characteristics of these result in variations in the output surfaces estimated from the same set of input points. The work presented in this paper provides an examination of uncertainties through the application of a number of interpolation techniques available in standard GIS packages to a case study nitrogen dioxide data set for the Greater Manchester conurbation in northern England. The implications of the use of different techniques are discussed through application to hourly concentrations during an air quality episode and annual average concentrations in 2001. Patterns of concentrations demonstrate considerable differences in the estimated spatial pattern of maxima as the combined effects of chemical processes, topography and meteorology. In the case of air quality episodes, the considerable spatial variability of concentrations results in large uncertainties in the surfaces produced but these uncertainties vary widely from area to area

  14. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.

  15. Teaching mathematical modelling through project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomhøj, Morten; Kjeldsen, Tinne Hoff

    2006-01-01

    are reported in manners suitable for internet publication for colleagues. The reports and the related discussions reveal interesting dilemmas concerning the teaching of mathematical modelling and how to cope with these through “setting the scene” for the students modelling projects and through dialogues......The paper presents and analyses experiences from developing and running an in-service course in project work and mathematical modelling for mathematics teachers in the Danish gymnasium, e.g. upper secondary level, grade 10-12. The course objective is to support the teachers to develop, try out...... in their own classes, evaluate and report a project based problem oriented course in mathematical modelling. The in-service course runs over one semester and includes three seminars of 3, 1 and 2 days. Experiences show that the course objectives in general are fulfilled and that the course projects...

  16. Musculoskeletal Modelling and the Physiome Project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fernandez, Justin; Zhang, Ju; Shim, Vickie; Munro, Jacob T.; Sartori, Massimo; Besier, Thor; Lloyd, David G.; Nickerson, David P.; Hunter, Peter; Pivonka, Peter

    2018-01-01

    This chapter presents developments as part of the International Union of Physiological Sciences (IUPS) Physiome Project. Models are multiscale, multispatial and multiphysics, hence, suitable numerical tools and platforms have been developed to address these challenges for the musculoskeletal system.

  17. Quark shell model using projection operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullah, N.

    1988-01-01

    Using the projection operators in the quark shell model, the wave functions for proton are calculated and expressions for calculating the wave function of neutron and also magnetic moment of proton and neutron are derived. (M.G.B.)

  18. A proposed model for construction project management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. ... (decision-making, problem-solving, listening, verbal competency, motivation, persuasion, ... Keywords: Communication skills and leadership model, construction project management, ...

  19. Developing Project Duration Models in Software Engineering

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pierre Bourque; Serge Oligny; Alain Abran; Bertrand Fournier

    2007-01-01

    Based on the empirical analysis of data contained in the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group(ISBSG) repository, this paper presents software engineering project duration models based on project effort. Duration models are built for the entire dataset and for subsets of projects developed for personal computer, mid-range and mainframeplatforms. Duration models are also constructed for projects requiring fewer than 400 person-hours of effort and for projectsre quiring more than 400 person-hours of effort. The usefulness of adding the maximum number of assigned resources as asecond independent variable to explain duration is also analyzed. The opportunity to build duration models directly fromproject functional size in function points is investigated as well.

  20. Modelling the Reduction of Project Making Duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleinik Pavel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article points out why earlier patterns of investment process were ineffective in developing the construction projects and shows sources for reducing of its total duration. It describes the procedure of statistical modeling and obtaining medium-term time parameters required for modern pattern of project-making; offers design formulas for assessment of total time required for project-making as well as for its main stages; reveals advantage of modern system of project-making against traditional one by comparing indicators of their duration.

  1. POMP - Pervasive Object Model Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schougaard, Kari Rye; Schultz, Ulrik Pagh

    The focus on mobile devices is continuously increasing, and improved device connectivity enables the construction of pervasive computing systems composed of heterogeneous collections of devices. Users who employ different devices throughout their daily activities naturally expect their applications...... computing environment. This system, named POM (Pervasive Object Model), supports applications split into coarse-grained, strongly mobile units that communicate using method invocations through proxies. We are currently investigating efficient execution of mobile applications, scalability to suit...

  2. Integrating semantic data models with project management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wachter, R

    1982-01-01

    Summary form only given, as follows. The development of a data model for a project on the test and certification of computer-based information systems required a more expressive data model than that supplied by either the network, hierarchical or relational models. A data model was developed to describe the work environment and the work itself. This model is based on the entity-relationship data model of Chen and on heuristic principles of knowledge organisation used in artificial intelligence. The ER data model is reviewed and the extensions to the model are discussed.

  3. EXPENSES FORECASTING MODEL IN UNIVERSITY PROJECTS PLANNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Arustamov

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with mathematical model presentation of cash flows in project funding. We describe different types of expenses linked to university project activities. Problems of project budgeting that contribute most uncertainty have been revealed. As an example of the model implementation we consider calculation of vacation allowance expenses for project participants. We define problems of forecast for funds reservation: calculation based on methodology established by the Ministry of Education and Science calculation according to the vacation schedule and prediction of the most probable amount. A stochastic model for vacation allowance expenses has been developed. We have proposed methods and solution of the problems that increase the accuracy of forecasting for funds reservation based on 2015 data.

  4. Streamline Your Project: A Lifecycle Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viren, John

    2000-01-01

    Discusses one approach to project organization providing a baseline lifecycle model for multimedia/CBT development. This variation of the standard four-phase model of Analysis, Design, Development, and Implementation includes a Pre-Analysis phase, called Definition, and a Post-Implementation phase, known as Maintenance. Each phase is described.…

  5. Model county ordinance for wind projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bain, D.A. [Oregon Office of Energy, Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Permitting is a crucial step in the development cycle of a wind project and permits affect the timing, cost, location, feasibility, layout, and impacts of wind projects. Counties often have the lead responsibility for permitting yet few have appropriate siting regulations for wind projects. A model ordinance allows a county to quickly adopt appropriate permitting procedures. The model county wind ordinance developed for use by northwest states is generally applicable across the country and counties seeking to adopt siting or zoning regulations for wind will find it a good starting place. The model includes permitting procedures for wind measurement devices and two types of wind systems. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary standards apply to wind systems and a conditional use permit would be issued. The standards, criteria, conditions for approval, and process procedures are defined for each. Adaptation examples for the four northwest states are provided along with a model Wind Resource Overlay Zone.

  6. Modelling of the radiological impact of radioactive waste dumping in the Arctic Seas. Report of the Modelling and Assessment Working Group of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The work is summarized carried out by the Modelling and Assessment Working Group in 1994-1996. The Modelling and Assessment Working Group was established within the framework of the International Arctic Seas Assessment Project (IASAP) launched by the IAEA in 1993 with the objectives of modelling the environmental dispersal and transport of nuclides to be potentially released from the dumped objects and of assessing the associated radiological impact on man and biota. Models were developed to model the dispersal of the pollutants and for the assessment of the radiological consequences of the releases from the dumped wastes in the Arctic. The results of the model intercomparison exercise were used as a basis on which to evaluate the estimate of concentration fields when detailed source term scenarios were used and also to assess the uncertainties in ensuing dose calculations. The descriptions and modelling work was divided into three main phases: description of the area, collection of relevant and necessary information; extension to and development of predictive models including an extensive model inter-comparison and finally prediction of radiological impact, used in the evaluation of the need and options for remediation

  7. Inter-comparison of Flux-Gradient and Relaxed Eddy Accumulation Methods for Measuring Ammonia Flux Above a Corn Canopy in Central Illinois, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, A. J.; Koloutsou-Vakakis, S.; Rood, M. J.; Lichiheb, N.; Heuer, M.; Myles, L.

    2017-12-01

    Ammonia (NH3) is a precursor to fine particulate matter (PM) in the ambient atmosphere. Agricultural activities represent over 80% of anthropogenic emissions of NH3 in the United States. The use of nitrogen-based fertilizers contribute > 50% of total NH3 emissions in central Illinois. The U.S. EPA Science Advisory Board has called for improved methods to measure, model, and report atmospheric NH3 concentrations and emissions from agriculture. High uncertainties in the temporal and spatial distribution of NH3 emissions contribute to poor performance of air quality models in predicting ambient PM concentrations. This study reports and compares NH­3 flux measurements of differing temporal resolution obtained with two methods: relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) and flux-gradient (FG). REA and FG systems were operated concurrently above a corn canopy at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) Energy Biosciences Institute (EBI) Energy Farm during the 2014 corn-growing season. The REA system operated during daytime, providing average fluxes over four-hour sampling intervals, where time resolution was limited by detection limit of denuders. The FG system employed a cavity ring-down spectrometer, and was operated continuously, reporting 30 min flux averages. A flux-footprint evaluation was used for quality control, resulting in 1,178 qualified FG measurements, 82 of which were coincident with REA measurements. Similar emission trends were observed with both systems, with peak NH3 emission observed one week after fertilization. For all coincident samples, mean NH3 flux was 205 ± 300 ng-N-m2s-1 and 110 ± 256 ng-N-m2s-1 as measured with REA and FG, respectively, where positive flux indicates emission. This is the first reported inter-comparison of REA and FG methods as used for quantifying NH3 fluxes from cropland. Preliminary analysis indicates the improved temporal resolution and continuous sampling enabled by FG allow for the identification of emission pulses

  8. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA

  9. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

  10. Beyond theory : Towards a probabilistic causation model to support project governance in infrastructure projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Voordijk, Johannes T.; Dewulf, Geert

    2017-01-01

    A new project governance model for infrastructure projects is described in this paper. This model contains causal mechanisms that relate a number of project governance variables to project performance. Our proposed model includes relevant variables for measuring project governance in construction

  11. PROJECT ACTIVITY ANALYSIS WITHOUT THE NETWORK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Munapo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new procedure for analysing and managing activity sequences in projects. The new procedure determines critical activities, critical path, start times, free floats, crash limits, and other useful information without the use of the network model. Even though network models have been successfully used in project management so far, there are weaknesses associated with the use. A network is not easy to generate, and dummies that are usually associated with it make the network diagram complex – and dummy activities have no meaning in the original project management problem. The network model for projects can be avoided while still obtaining all the useful information that is required for project management. What are required are the activities, their accurate durations, and their predecessors.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsing beskryf ’n nuwerwetse metode vir die ontleding en bestuur van die sekwensiële aktiwiteite van projekte. Die voorgestelde metode bepaal kritiese aktiwiteite, die kritieke pad, aanvangstye, speling, verhasing, en ander groothede sonder die gebruik van ’n netwerkmodel. Die metode funksioneer bevredigend in die praktyk, en omseil die administratiewe rompslomp van die tradisionele netwerkmodelle.

  12. Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipkin, Ilya

    Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

  13. Mathematical Modeling Projects: Success for All Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, Therese

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical modeling allows flexibility for a project-based experience. We share details of our regular capstone course, successful for virtually 100% of our math majors for almost two decades. Our research-like approach in this course accommodates a variety of student backgrounds and interests, and has produced some award-winning student…

  14. NASA's Aviation Safety and Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chidester, Thomas R.; Statler, Irving C.

    2006-01-01

    The Aviation Safety Monitoring and Modeling (ASMM) Project of NASA's Aviation Safety program is cultivating sources of data and developing automated computer hardware and software to facilitate efficient, comprehensive, and accurate analyses of the data collected from large, heterogeneous databases throughout the national aviation system. The ASMM addresses the need to provide means for increasing safety by enabling the identification and correcting of predisposing conditions that could lead to accidents or to incidents that pose aviation risks. A major component of the ASMM Project is the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS), which is developing the next generation of software tools for analyzing and interpreting flight data.

  15. Implementation of the model project: Ghanaian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schandorf, C.; Darko, E.O.; Yeboah, J.; Asiamah, S.D.

    2003-01-01

    Upgrading of the legal infrastructure has been the most time consuming and frustrating part of the implementation of the Model project due to the unstable system of governance and rule of law coupled with the low priority given to legislation on technical areas such as safe applications of Nuclear Science and Technology in medicine, industry, research and teaching. Dwindling Governmental financial support militated against physical and human resource infrastructure development and operational effectiveness. The trend over the last five years has been to strengthen the revenue generation base of the Radiation Protection Institute through good management practices to ensure a cost effective use of the limited available resources for a self-reliant and sustainable radiation and waste safety programme. The Ghanaian experience regarding the positive and negative aspects of the implementation of the Model Project is highlighted. (author)

  16. European project for a multinational macrosectoral model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    d' Alcantara, G; Italianer, A

    1984-01-01

    This paper describes the HERMES project, a multinational macrosectoral European econometric modelling effort, sponsored by the Directorates General II (Economic and Financial Affairs), XII (Science, Research and Development), XVII (Energy) and the SOEC. The set-up of the model is sketched against the background of problems of growth, unemployment, inflation, trade balances, government balances and energy policy. Although the definitions of the variables and a complete specification of the model are given in the Appendix, the major features of the model are described extensively in the text. These include private and collective consumption (incl. a consumer demand system), the putty-clay production process, price and wage formation, sectoral bilateral trade flows and integrated energy economy modelling.

  17. North American Carbon Project (NACP) Regional Model-Model and Model-Data Intercomparison Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntzinger, D. N.; Post, W. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Cook, R. B.

    2009-05-01

    questions: 1. Do model results and observations show consistent spatial patterns in response to the 2002 drought? From measurements and model, can we infer what processes were affected by the 2002 drought? 2. What is the spatial pattern and magnitude of interannual variation in carbon sources and sinks? What are the components of carbon fluxes and pools that contribute to this variation? 3. What are the magnitudes and spatial distribution of carbon sources and sinks, and their uncertainties during the period 2000-2005? Examining and comparing results of inverse and forward model simulations with each other and with suitable benchmark spatial measurements help evaluate model strengths/weaknesses and utility, thereby providing multiple views of spatial and temporal patterns of fluxes, leading to better understandings of processes involved, and providing an improved basis for making projections.

  18. Thresholding projection estimators in functional linear models

    OpenAIRE

    Cardot, Hervé; Johannes, Jan

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating the regression function in functional linear regression models by proposing a new type of projection estimators which combine dimension reduction and thresholding. The introduction of a threshold rule allows to get consistency under broad assumptions as well as minimax rates of convergence under additional regularity hypotheses. We also consider the particular case of Sobolev spaces generated by the trigonometric basis which permits to get easily mean squ...

  19. Food for thought: Overconfidence in model projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith; Neuheimer, Anna; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-01-01

    There is considerable public and political interest in the state of marine ecosystems and fisheries, but the reliability of some recent projections has been called into question. New information about declining fish stocks, loss of biodiversity, climate impacts, and management failure is frequent...... be reliable and uncertainties arising from models and data shortcomings must be presented fully and transparently. Scientific journals play an important role and should require more detailed analysis and presentation of uncertainties....

  20. Modeling Change in Project Duration and Completion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiltshire, Travis; Butner, Jonathan E.; Pirtle, Zachary

    2017-01-01

    In complex work domains and organizations, understanding scheduleing dynamics can ensure objectives are reached and delays are mitigated. In the current paper, we examine the scheduling dynamics for NASA’s Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) activities. For this examination, we specifically modeled...... simultaneous change in percent complete and estimated duration for a given project as they were included in monthly reports over time. In short, we utilized latent change score mixture modeling to extract the attractor dynamics within the scheduling data. We found three primarily patterns: an attractor at low...

  1. The UK Earth System Model project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yongming

    2016-04-01

    In this talk we will describe the development and current status of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM). This project is a NERC/Met Office collaboration and has two objectives; to develop and apply a world-leading Earth System Model, and to grow a community of UK Earth System Model scientists. We are building numerical models that include all the key components of the global climate system, and contain the important process interactions between global biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry and the physical climate system. UKESM will be used to make key CMIP6 simulations as well as long-time (e.g. millennium) simulations, large ensemble experiments and investigating a range of future carbon emission scenarios.

  2. The Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Gil

    1999-01-01

    What does it take to create and implement a 7th to 8th grade middle school program where the great majority of students achieve at high academic levels regardless of their previous elementary school backgrounds? This was the major question that guided the research and development of a 7-year long project effort entitled the Chancellor's Model School Project (CMSP) from September 1991 to August 1998. The CMSP effort conducted largely in two New York City public schools was aimed at creating and testing a prototype 7th and 8th grade model program that was organized and test-implemented in two distinct project phases: Phase I of the CMSP effort was conducted from 1991 to 1995 as a 7th to 8th grade extension of an existing K-6 elementary school, and Phase II was conducted from 1995 to 1998 as a 7th to 8th grade middle school program that became an integral part of a newly established 7-12th grade high school. In Phase I, the CMSP demonstrated that with a highly structured curriculum coupled with strong academic support and increased learning time, students participating in the CMSP were able to develop a strong foundation for rigorous high school coursework within the space of 2 years (at the 7th and 8th grades). Mathematics and Reading test score data during Phase I of the project, clearly indicated that significant academic gains were obtained by almost all students -- at both the high and low ends of the spectrum -- regardless of their previous academic performance in the K-6 elementary school experience. The CMSP effort expanded in Phase II to include a fully operating 7-12 high school model. Achievement gains at the 7th and 8th grade levels in Phase II were tempered by the fact that incoming 7th grade students' academic background at the CMSP High School was significantly lower than students participating in Phase 1. Student performance in Phase II was also affected by the broadening of the CMSP effort from a 7-8th grade program to a fully functioning 7-12 high

  3. Project-matrix models of marketing organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutić Dragutin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Unlike theory and practice of corporation organization, in marketing organization numerous forms and contents at its disposal are not reached until this day. It can be well estimated that marketing organization today in most of our companies and in almost all its parts, noticeably gets behind corporation organization. Marketing managers have always been occupied by basic, narrow marketing activities as: sales growth, market analysis, market growth and market share, marketing research, introduction of new products, modification of products, promotion, distribution etc. They rarely found it necessary to focus a bit more to different aspects of marketing management, for example: marketing planning and marketing control, marketing organization and leading. This paper deals with aspects of project - matrix marketing organization management. Two-dimensional and more-dimensional models are presented. Among two-dimensional, these models are analyzed: Market management/products management model; Products management/management of product lifecycle phases on market model; Customers management/marketing functions management model; Demand management/marketing functions management model; Market positions management/marketing functions management model. .

  4. Source term modelling parameters for Project-90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, W.; Smith, G.; Worgan, K.; Hodgkinson, D.; Andersson, K.

    1992-04-01

    This document summarises the input parameters for the source term modelling within Project-90. In the first place, the parameters relate to the CALIBRE near-field code which was developed for the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate's (SKI) Project-90 reference repository safety assessment exercise. An attempt has been made to give best estimate values and, where appropriate, a range which is related to variations around base cases. It should be noted that the data sets contain amendments to those considered by KBS-3. In particular, a completely new set of inventory data has been incorporated. The information given here does not constitute a complete set of parameter values for all parts of the CALIBRE code. Rather, it gives the key parameter values which are used in the constituent models within CALIBRE and the associated studies. For example, the inventory data acts as an input to the calculation of the oxidant production rates, which influence the generation of a redox front. The same data is also an initial value data set for the radionuclide migration component of CALIBRE. Similarly, the geometrical parameters of the near-field are common to both sub-models. The principal common parameters are gathered here for ease of reference and avoidance of unnecessary duplication and transcription errors. (au)

  5. Building information models for astronomy projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariño, Javier; Murga, Gaizka; Campo, Ramón; Eletxigerra, Iñigo; Ampuero, Pedro

    2012-09-01

    A Building Information Model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a building. BIMs represent the geometrical characteristics of the Building, but also properties like bills of quantities, definition of COTS components, status of material in the different stages of the project, project economic data, etc. The BIM methodology, which is well established in the Architecture Engineering and Construction (AEC) domain for conventional buildings, has been brought one step forward in its application for Astronomical/Scientific facilities. In these facilities steel/concrete structures have high dynamic and seismic requirements, M&E installations are complex and there is a large amount of special equipment and mechanisms involved as a fundamental part of the facility. The detail design definition is typically implemented by different design teams in specialized design software packages. In order to allow the coordinated work of different engineering teams, the overall model, and its associated engineering database, is progressively integrated using a coordination and roaming software which can be used before starting construction phase for checking interferences, planning the construction sequence, studying maintenance operation, reporting to the project office, etc. This integrated design & construction approach will allow to efficiently plan construction sequence (4D). This is a powerful tool to study and analyze in detail alternative construction sequences and ideally coordinate the work of different construction teams. In addition engineering, construction and operational database can be linked to the virtual model (6D), what gives to the end users a invaluable tool for the lifecycle management, as all the facility information can be easily accessed, added or replaced. This paper presents the BIM methodology as implemented by IDOM with the E-ELT and ATST Enclosures as application examples.

  6. MODEL RANCANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PROJECT MONITORING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanti Yanti

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Economic development makes the property industry growing very rapidly. The property development is supported by the development of contractor’s company that conducts property development. Inside the contracting company doing business can not perform their own procurement because of the many items that must be provided. For the purposes of the construction company entered into an agreement with the subcontractor as vendor conduct procurement in accordance with the needs of contracting companies. To simplify the procurement process, generally conducted by a process called a tender / auction. This is done by contracting companies to get quality and price in accordance with the desired budget. The company’s commitment subcontractors as the procurement of goods to be one key to successful contracting company doing business development process. Therefore, the subcontractor companies are required to have a good commitment. Therefore we need a project monitoring system that can monitor business processes running on those sub contractor company. The purpose of this research is to design a project monitoring information system in accordance with company requirements to operational activities more effective and efficient company.Keywords: project monitoring, design model, subcontractor

  7. Multi-model Projection of July-August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part Ⅰ:Precipitation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongmei; FENG Lei; ZHOU Tianjun

    2011-01-01

    Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July-August over China in response to CO2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (lpctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models' performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ~50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ~2-3 times larger than that over the other areas.Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the lpctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China,which follows the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.

  8. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  9. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

    2009-08-01

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  10. Authors's reply to 'Generation of surface degraded layer on austenitic stainless steel piping exposed to flowing sodium in a loop: inter comparison of long term exposure data', by S. Rajendran Pillai

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganesan, Vaidehi; Ganesan, V.; Borgstedt, H.U.

    2004-01-01

    This is an elaborate author's reply to a comment 'Generation of surface degraded layer on austenitic steel piping exposed to flowing sodium in a loop: inter comparison of long term exposure data' by S. Rajendran Pillai appearing in this proceedings. The basic misunderstanding as seen in the above comment about the mass loss due to sodium exposure, which is reflected throughout the above comment, has been explained in detail in this reply for better understanding of the phenomenon. It is precisely mentioned and understood that Thorley and Tyzack model deals with complete mass loss and not mere degradation. The total mass loss corresponds to mass loss due to wall thinning and that due to degraded layer formation. Though Thorley and Tyzack model is the most pioneering model in the field of sodium corrosion, the inadequacies of this model for materials without molybdenum such as SS 304 with very long exposure in sodium is clearly brought out in this paper. This model has been successfully applied to calculate life of clad tubes, which have relatively short stay in reactor core. Yoshida models are highlighted and compared with our experimental results. Yoshida models are not valid below certain durations owing to the empirical nature of such expressions. Thorley and Tyzack model can be used for SS 316 LN as this alloy contains molybdenum and nitrogen both of which imparts corrosion resistance in sodium. What is required is that one needs to establish the extent to which this model can be applied for materials exposed to high temperatures and very long durations. The details are discussed in this reply

  11. A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Jenny Leonard

    2012-01-01

    The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project ...

  12. Inter-comparison of the solar UVB, UVA and global radiation clearness and UV indices for Beer Sheva and Neve Zohar (Dead Sea), Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kudish, A.I.; Lyubansky, V.; Evseev, E.G.; Ianetz, A.

    2005-01-01

    An inter-comparison of the clearness indices for the solar UVB, UVA and global radiation for Beer Sheva and Neve Zohar (Dead Sea) are presented utilizing radiation data measured from January 1995 through December 2001 for which there is a one-to-one correspondence between the measurements, viz., any day for which a hourly value for one of the sites was missing is rejected and not included in the analysis for that particular radiation type. Beer Sheva is located ca. 65 km to the west and is approximately 700 m above Neve Zohar, which is located on the western shore of the Dead Sea. The Dead Sea is the lowest terrestrial point on the earth, approximately 400 m below mean sea level. The relative magnitudes of the global, UVB and UVA radiation intensities at the two sites can be attributed to the enhanced scattering at the Dead Sea due to the longer optical path length the solar radiation must traverse at the Dead Sea. The degree of attenuation due to scattering phenomena is inversely proportional to the wavelength raised to some power and, consequently, it is greatest for UVB and very small for global radiation. The UVB and UVA solar constants were determined from the extraterrestrial radiation values tabulated by Froehlich and Wehrli [Spectral distribution of solar irradiance from 25000 nm to 250nm, in: M. Iqbal, An introduction to solar radiation, Academic Press, New York, 1981, Appendix C, pp. 380-381]. The clearness indices for global and UVA radiation were of similar magnitude, whereas those for UVB radiation were of two orders of magnitude smaller. In addition, the monthly average hourly UV Index at both sites has also been determined and an inter-comparison of the values has been performed for all available hourly values from January 1995 through August 2002 for both sites. It is observed that the monthly average hourly UV Index values at the Dead Sea are never in the extreme range

  13. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database User's Guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC) specifically to address Hanford solid waste management issues. This document is one of a set of documents supporting the SWPM system and providing instructions in the use and maintenance of SWPM components. This manual contains instructions for using Version 1.4 of the SWPM database: system requirements and preparation, entering and maintaining data, and performing routine database functions. This document supports only those operations which are specific to SWPM database menus and functions and does not Provide instruction in the use of Paradox, the database management system in which the SWPM database is established

  14. Projecting surgeon supply using a dynamic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraher, Erin P; Knapton, Andy; Sheldon, George F; Meyer, Anthony; Ricketts, Thomas C

    2013-05-01

    To develop a projection model to forecast the head count and full-time equivalent supply of surgeons by age, sex, and specialty in the United States from 2009 to 2028. The search for the optimal number and specialty mix of surgeons to care for the United States population has taken on increased urgency under health care reform. Expanded insurance coverage and an aging population will increase demand for surgical and other medical services. Accurate forecasts of surgical service capacity are crucial to inform the federal government, training institutions, professional associations, and others charged with improving access to health care. The study uses a dynamic stock and flow model that simulates future changes in numbers and specialty type by factoring in changes in surgeon demographics and policy factors. : Forecasts show that overall surgeon supply will decrease 18% during the period form 2009 to 2028 with declines in all specialties except colorectal, pediatric, neurological surgery, and vascular surgery. Model simulations suggest that none of the proposed changes to increase graduate medical education currently under consideration will be sufficient to offset declines. The length of time it takes to train surgeons, the anticipated decrease in hours worked by surgeons in younger generations, and the potential decreases in graduate medical education funding suggest that there may be an insufficient surgeon workforce to meet population needs. Existing maldistribution patterns are likely to be exacerbated, leading to delayed or lost access to time-sensitive surgical procedures, particularly in rural areas.

  15. Multi-model uncertainty analysis in predicting grain N for crop rotations in Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Yin, X.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kollas, C.; Baby, S.; Beaudoin, N.; Manevski, K.; Palosuo, T.; Nendel, C.; Wu, L.; Hoffmann, M.; Hoffmann, H. D.; Sharif, B.; Armas-Herrera, C.; Bindi, M.; Charfeddine, M.; Conradt, T.; Constantin, J.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Gaiser, T.; de Cortazar-Atauri, I. G.; Giglio, L.; Hlavinka, Petr; Lana, M.; Launay, M.; Louarn, G.; Manderscheid, R.; Mary, B.; Mirschel, W.; Moriondo, M.; Oeztuerk, M.; Pacholski, A.; Ripoche-Wachter, D.; Roetter, R. P.; Ruget, F.; Trnka, Miroslav; Ventrella, D.; Weigel, H-J.; Olesen, J. E.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 84, mar (2017), s. 152-165 ISSN 1161-0301 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : air co2 enrichment * climate-change * catch crops * nitrogen-fertilization * wheat production * winter-wheat * model stics * sugar-beet * wide-range * growth * Continuous simulation * Grain N * Model calibration * Model ensemble * Model inter-comparison * Single year simulation Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy OBOR OECD: Agronomy , plant breeding and plant protection Impact factor: 3.757, year: 2016

  16. Projections of Rainfall and Surface Temperature from CMIP5 Models under RCP4.5 and 8.5 over BIMSTEC Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charan Pattnayak, Kanhu; Kar, Sarat Chandra; Kumari Pattnayak, Rashmita

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall and surface temperature are the most important climatic variables in the context of climate change. Thus, these variables simulated from fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been compared against Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observed data and projected for the twenty first century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Results for the seven countries under Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand have been examined. Six CMIP5 models namely GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES have been chosen for this study. The study period has been considered is from 1861 to 2100. From this period, initial 145 years i.e. 1861 to 2005 is reference or historical period and the later 95 years i.e. 2005 to 2100 is projected period. The climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the reference period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall and temperature has been compared with CRU over the reference period 1901 to 2005. Comparison reveals that most of the models are able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over most of the regions of BIMSTEC countries. Therefore these model data can be used to study the future changes in the 21st Century. Four out six models shows that the rainfall over Central and North India, Thailand and eastern part of Myanmar shows decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka shows an increasing trend in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In case of temperature, all of the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. Annual cycles of rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand

  17. The study of the risk management model of construction project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Bo; Feng Yanping; Liu Changbin

    2010-01-01

    The paper first analyzed the development of the risk management of construction project and the risk management processes, and then briefly introduced the risk management experience of foreign project management. From the project management by objectives point of view, the greatest risk came from the lack of clarity of the objectives in the project management, which led to the project's risk emergence. In the analysis of the principles of the project objectives identification and risk allocation, the paper set up a project management model which insurance companies involved in the whole process of the project management, and simply analyzed the roles of insurance company at last. (authors)

  18. Logistics of Mathematical Modeling-Focused Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwood, R. Corban

    2018-01-01

    This article addresses the logistics of implementing projects in an undergraduate mathematics class and is intended both for new instructors and for instructors who have had negative experiences implementing projects in the past. Project implementation is given for both lower- and upper-division mathematics courses with an emphasis on mathematical…

  19. Modelling in Evaluating a Working Life Project in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarja, Anneli; Janhonen, Sirpa; Havukainen, Pirjo; Vesterinen, Anne

    2012-01-01

    This article describes an evaluation method based on collaboration between the higher education, a care home and university, in a R&D project. The aim of the project was to elaborate modelling as a tool of developmental evaluation for innovation and competence in project cooperation. The approach was based on activity theory. Modelling enabled a…

  20. Modelling land surface - atmosphere interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Søren Højmark

    representation of groundwater in the hydrological model is found to important and this imply resolving the small river valleys. Because, the important shallow groundwater is found in the river valleys. If the model does not represent the shallow groundwater then the area mean surface flux calculation......The study is investigates modelling of land surface – atmosphere interactions in context of fully coupled climatehydrological model. With a special focus of under what condition a fully coupled model system is needed. Regional climate model inter-comparison projects as ENSEMBLES have shown bias...... by the hydrological model is found to be insensitive to model resolution. Furthermore, this study highlights the effect of bias precipitation by regional climate model and it implications for hydrological modelling....

  1. SR 97. Alternative models project. Stochastic continuum modelling of Aberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widen, H.; Walker, D.

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modelling approaches to bedrock performance assessment for a single hypothetical repository, arbitrarily named Aberg. The Aberg repository will adopt input parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The models are restricted to an explicit domain, boundary conditions and canister location to facilitate the comparison. The boundary conditions are based on the regional groundwater model provided in digital format. This study is the application of HYDRASTAR, a stochastic continuum groundwater flow and transport-modelling program. The study uses 34 realisations of 945 canister locations in the hypothetical repository to evaluate the uncertainty of the advective travel time, canister flux (Darcy velocity at a canister) and F-ratio. Several comparisons of variability are constructed between individual canister locations and individual realisations. For the ensemble of all realisations with all canister locations, the study found a median travel time of 27 years, a median canister flux of 7.1 x 10 -4 m/yr and a median F-ratio of 3.3 x 10 5 yr/m. The overall pattern of regional flow is preserved in the site-scale model, as is reflected in flow paths and exit locations. The site-scale model slightly over-predicts the boundary fluxes from the single realisation of the regional model. The explicitly prescribed domain was seen to be slightly restrictive, with 6% of the stream tubes failing to exit the upper surface of the model. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are suggested as possible extensions of the modelling study

  2. Introduction to Financial Projection Models. Business Management Instructional Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pomeroy, Robert W., III

    This guidebook and teacher's guide accompany a personal computer software program and introduce the key elements of financial projection modeling to project the financial statements of an industrial enterprise. The student will then build a model on an electronic spreadsheet. The guidebook teaches the purpose of a financial model and the steps…

  3. Inter-comparison of High Energy Files (neutron-induced, from 20 to 150 MeV)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Young-Ouk; Fukahori, Tokio [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    1998-11-01

    Recent new applications using accelerator-driven system require well-tested nuclear data when modeling the interaction of neutrons above 20 MeV. This work is aimed to review evaluation methods applied in currently available neutron high energy files above 20 to 150 MeV, to inter-compare their evaluated cross sections on some important isotopes, and to analyze resulting discrepancies. Through out these, integrities and consistencies of the high energy files are checked, applicability of physics models and evaluation methodologies are assessed, and some directions are derived to improve and expand current JENDL High Energy File. (author)

  4. Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang , Chao; Marle , Franck

    2012-01-01

    International audience; Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-eva...

  5. Risk Assessment of Engineering Project Financing Based on PPP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Qiuli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available At present, the project financing channel is single, and the urban facilities are in short supply, and the risk assessment and prevention mechanism of financing should be further improved to reduce the risk of project financing. In view of this, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of project financing risk which combined the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process is established. The scientificalness and effectiveness of the model are verified by the example of the world port project in Luohe city, and it provides basis and reference for engineering project financing based on PPP mode.

  6. Preliminary Inter-Comparison between AHI, VIIRS and MODIS Clear-Sky Ocean Radiances for Accurate SST Retrievals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingming Liang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Clear-sky brightness temperatures (BT in five bands of the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI; flown onboard Himawari-8 satellite centered at 3.9, 8.6, 10.4, 11.2, and 12.3 µm (denoted by IR37, IR86, IR10, IR11, and IR12, respectively are used in the NOAA Advanced Clear-Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO sea surface temperature (SST retrieval system. Here, AHI BTs are preliminarily evaluated for stability and consistency with the corresponding VIIRS and MODIS BTs, using the sensor observation minus model simulation (O-M biases and corresponding double differences. The objective is to ensure accurate and consistent SST products from the polar and geo sensors, and to prepare for the launch of the GOES-R satellite in 2016. All five AHI SST bands are found to be largely in-family with their polar counterparts, but biased low relative to the VIIRS and MODIS (which, in turn, were found to be stable and consistent, except for Terra IR86, which is biased high by 1.5 K. The negative biases are larger in IR37 and IR12 (up to ~−0.5 K, followed by the three remaining longwave IR bands IR86, IR10, and IR11 (from −0.3 to −0.4 K. These negative biases may be in part due to the uncertainties in AHI calibration and characterization, although uncertainties in the coefficients of the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM, used to generate the “M” term may also contribute. Work is underway to add AHI analyses in the NOAA Monitoring of IR Clear-Sky Radiances over Oceans for SST (MICROS system and improve AHI BTs by collaborating with the sensor calibration and CRTM teams. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI analyses will be also added in MICROS when GOES-R is launched in late 2016 and the ABI IR data become available.

  7. Multi-Agent Modeling in Managing Six Sigma Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Y. Chau

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi-agent model is proposed for considering the human resources factor in decision making in relation to the six sigma project. The proposed multi-agent system is expected to increase the acccuracy of project prioritization and to stabilize the human resources service level. A simulation of the proposed multiagent model is conducted. The results show that a multi-agent model which takes into consideration human resources when making decisions about project selection and project team formation is important in enabling efficient and effective project management. The multi-agent modeling approach provides an alternative approach for improving communication and the autonomy of six sigma projects in business organizations.

  8. Financial and organizational models of NPP construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Timur

    2010-01-01

    The recent evolution of financial and organizational models of NPP projects can be truly reputed to open a new page of the world market of NPP construction. The definition of the concrete model is based mostly on specific cooperation backgrounds and current terms and conditions under which the particular NPP project is being evolved. In this article the most commonly known strategies and schemes of financing structuring for export NPP construction projects are scrutinized. Special attention is paid to the analysis of BOO/BOT models which are based on the public-private partnership. Most BOO/BOT projects in the power sector has Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) as an integral part of them. The PPA key principles are studied here as well. The flexibility and adaptability of the public-private partnership models for financing and organization of the NPP projects contributes substantially to the competitiveness of the NPP projects especially under current economic conditions. (orig.)

  9. Finite detector based projection model for super resolution CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Hengyong; Wang, Ge [Wake Forest Univ. Health Sciences, Winston-Salem, NC (United States). Dept. of Radiology; Virgina Tech, Blacksburg, VA (United States). Biomedical Imaging Div.

    2011-07-01

    For finite detector and focal spot sizes, here we propose a projection model for super resolution CT. First, for a given X-ray source point, a projection datum is modeled as an area integral over a narrow fan-beam connecting the detector elemental borders and the X-ray source point. Then, the final projection value is expressed as the integral obtained in the first step over the whole focal spot support. An ordered-subset simultaneous algebraic reconstruction technique (OS-SART) is developed using the proposed projection model. In the numerical simulation, our method produces super spatial resolution and suppresses high-frequency artifacts. (orig.)

  10. MODEL OF THE PROJECT – ORIENTED SOCIETY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian CLIPICI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In many national societies, projects and programmes are performed not only in companies but also in other organizations, such as municipal administrations, associations, schools and ever in families. The globalization of the economy, new technologies with ever-shorter product life cycles and the application of a new management paradigm, characterized by virtual organizations, „empowerment” and knowledge management, promote the use of project and programme management. The article describes the implementation of an integrated waste management in the county of Arges, in accordance with the requirements and provisions of European Community Directives, in order to preserve, protect and improve environmental quality in Arges (project "Integrated management of solid waste in Arges".

  11. An inter-comparison of PM2.5 at urban and urban background sites: Chemical characterization and source apportionment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesari, D.; Donateo, A.; Conte, M.; Merico, E.; Giangreco, A.; Giangreco, F.; Contini, D.

    2016-06-01

    A measurement campaign was performed between 04/03/2013 and 17/07/2013 for simultaneous collection of PM2.5 samples in two nearby sites in southeastern Italy: an urban site and an urban background site. PM2.5 at the two sites were similar; however, the chemical composition and the contributions of the main sources were significantly different. The coefficients of divergence (CODs) showed spatial heterogeneity of EC (higher at the urban site because of traffic emissions) and of all metals. Major ions (NH4+, Na+, and SO42 -) and OC had low CODs, suggesting a homogeneous distribution of sea spray, secondary sulfate, and secondary organic matter (SOM = 1.6*OCsec, where OCsec is the secondary OC). The strong correlations between Na+ and Cl-, and the low Cl-/Na+ ratios, suggested the presence of aged sea spray with chloride depletion (about 79% of Cl-) and formation of sodium nitrate at both sites. In both sites, the non-sea-salt sulfate was about 97% of sulfate, and the strong correlation between SO42 - and NH4+ indicated that ammonium was present as ammonium sulfate. However, during advection of Saharan Dust, calcium sulfate was present rather than ammonium sulfate. The source apportionment was performed using the Positive Matrix Factorization comparing outputs of model EPA PMF 3.0 and 5.0 version. Six aerosol sources were identified at both sites: traffic, biomass burning, crustal-resuspended dust, secondary nitrate, marine aerosol, and secondary sulfate. The PMF3.0 model was not completely able, in these sites, to separate marine contribution from secondary nitrate and secondary sulfate from OC, underestimating the marine contribution and overestimating the secondary sulfate with respect to stoichiometric calculations. The application of specific constraints on PMF5.0 provided cleaner profiles, improving the comparison with stoichiometric calculations. The seasonal trends revealed larger biomass burning contributions during the cold period at both sites due to

  12. Inter-comparison of Dose Distributions Calculated by FLUKA, GEANT4, MCNP, and PHITS for Proton Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zi-Yi; Tsai, Pi-En; Lee, Shao-Chun; Liu, Yen-Chiang; Chen, Chin-Cheng; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Sheu, Rong-Jiun

    2017-09-01

    The dose distributions from proton pencil beam scanning were calculated by FLUKA, GEANT4, MCNP, and PHITS, in order to investigate their applicability in proton radiotherapy. The first studied case was the integrated depth dose curves (IDDCs), respectively from a 100 and a 226-MeV proton pencil beam impinging a water phantom. The calculated IDDCs agree with each other as long as each code employs 75 eV for the ionization potential of water. The second case considered a similar condition of the first case but with proton energies in a Gaussian distribution. The comparison to the measurement indicates the inter-code differences might not only due to different stopping power but also the nuclear physics models. How the physics parameter setting affect the computation time was also discussed. In the third case, the applicability of each code for pencil beam scanning was confirmed by delivering a uniform volumetric dose distribution based on the treatment plan, and the results showed general agreement between each codes, the treatment plan, and the measurement, except that some deviations were found in the penumbra region. This study has demonstrated that the selected codes are all capable of performing dose calculations for therapeutic scanning proton beams with proper physics settings.

  13. Radiation exposure modeling and project schedule visualization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaquish, W.R.; Enderlin, V.R.

    1995-10-01

    This paper discusses two applications using IGRIP (Interactive Graphical Robot Instruction Program) to assist environmental remediation efforts at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. In the first application, IGRIP is used to calculate the estimated radiation exposure to workers conducting tasks in radiation environments. In the second, IGRIP is used as a configuration management tool to detect interferences between equipment and personnel work areas for multiple projects occurring simultaneously in one area. Both of these applications have the capability to reduce environmental remediation costs by reducing personnel radiation exposure and by providing a method to effectively manage multiple projects in a single facility

  14. A Team Building Model for Software Engineering Courses Term Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Yasar Guneri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a new model for team building, which enables teachers to build coherent teams rapidly and fairly for the term projects of software engineering courses. Moreover, the model can also be used to build teams for any type of project, if the team member candidates are students, or if they are inexperienced on a certain subject. The…

  15. Mapping Evapotranspiration in the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta using simulated ECOSTRESS Thermal Data: Validation and Inter-comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, A.; Jin, Y.; He, R.; Hulley, G.; Fisher, J.; Lee, C. M.; Rivera, G.; Hook, S. J.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Kent, E. R.; Paw U, K. T.; Gao, F.; Lund, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Irrigation accounts for 80% of human freshwater consumption, and most of it return to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration (ET). In California, where our water resources are limited and heavily utilized, the need for a cost-effective, timely, and consistent spatial estimate of crop ET, from the farm to watershed level, is becoming increasingly important. The ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), to be launched in mid-2018, will provide the most detailed and accurate temperature measurements ever acquired from space and thus unique opportunities for estimating ET at the farm scale. We simulated the ECOSTRESS thermal data at a 70 m resolution using VIIRS thermal observations and ASTER emissivity data in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta region for the 2016 water year. Three remote sensing based ET methods were then applied to estimate ET using simulated ECOSTRESS data and optical data from Landsat and VIIRS, including Priestley-Taylor approaches developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) and by UC Davis (PT-UCD), and the Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) model. We compared these three sets of ET estimates with field measurements at sixteen sites over five crop types (Alfalfa, Corn, Pasture, Tomato, and Beardless Wheat). Good agreement was found between satellite-based estimates and field measurements. Our results demonstrate that thermal data from the upcoming ECOSTRESS mission will reduce the uncertainty in ET estimates. A continuous monitoring of the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of consumptive water use at a field scale will help prepare and inform to adaptively manage water, canopy, and planting density to maximize yield with least amount of water.

  16. A Model of and for Virtual Projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garud, R.; Kumaraswamy, A.; Tuertscher, P.R.; Cattani, G.; Ferriani, S.; Frederiksen, L.; Täube, F.

    2011-01-01

    We examine how digital technologies enable distributed actors to collaborate asynchronously on virtual projects. We use Wikipedia and associated wiki digital technology as the research site for our exploration. Our probe of the emergence of Wikipedia articles highlights a distinctive property of

  17. The Lunar Phases Project: A Mental Model-Based Observational Project for Undergraduate Nonscience Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Angela Osterman; Mon, Manuel J.; Hibbard, Susan T.

    2011-01-01

    We present our Lunar Phases Project, an ongoing effort utilizing students' actual observations within a mental model building framework to improve student understanding of the causes and process of the lunar phases. We implement this project with a sample of undergraduate, nonscience major students enrolled in a midsized public university located…

  18. Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

    2011-11-15

    The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

  19. Final Project Report Load Modeling Transmission Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesieutre, Bernard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bravo, Richard [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Yinger, Robert [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chassin, Dave [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Huang, Henry [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lu, Ning [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hiskens, Ian [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Venkataramanan, Giri [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-03-31

    The research presented in this report primarily focuses on improving power system load models to better represent their impact on system behavior. The previous standard load model fails to capture the delayed voltage recovery events that are observed in the Southwest and elsewhere. These events are attributed to stalled air conditioner units after a fault. To gain a better understanding of their role in these events and to guide modeling efforts, typical air conditioner units were testing in laboratories. Using data obtained from these extensive tests, new load models were developed to match air conditioner behavior. An air conditioner model is incorporated in the new WECC composite load model. These models are used in dynamic studies of the West and can impact power transfer limits for California. Unit-level and systemlevel solutions are proposed as potential solutions to the delayed voltage recovery problem.

  20. Rapid Energy Modeling Workflow Demonstration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    app FormIt for conceptual modeling with further refinement available in Revit or Vasari. Modeling can also be done in Revit (detailed and conceptual...referenced building model while in the field. • Autodesk® Revit is a BIM software application with integrated energy and carbon analyses driven by Green...FormIt, Revit and Vasari, and (3) comparative analysis. The energy results of these building analyses are represented as annual energy use for natural

  1. Occupant Protection Data Mining and Modeling Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Current National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) occupant protection standards and requirements are based on extrapolations of biodynamic models, which...

  2. Leading Undergraduate Research Projects in Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshaiyer, Padmanabhan

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we provide some useful perspectives and experiences in mentoring students in undergraduate research (UR) in mathematical modeling using differential equations. To engage students in this topic, we present a systematic approach to the creation of rich problems from real-world phenomena; present mathematical models that are derived…

  3. Radiative-convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Allison A.; Reed, Kevin A.; Satoh, Masaki; Stevens, Bjorn; Bony, Sandrine; Ohno, Tomoki

    2018-03-01

    RCEMIP, an intercomparison of multiple types of models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), is proposed. RCE is an idealization of the climate system in which there is a balance between radiative cooling of the atmosphere and heating by convection. The scientific objectives of RCEMIP are three-fold. First, clouds and climate sensitivity will be investigated in the RCE setting. This includes determining how cloud fraction changes with warming and the role of self-aggregation of convection in climate sensitivity. Second, RCEMIP will quantify the dependence of the degree of convective aggregation and tropical circulation regimes on temperature. Finally, by providing a common baseline, RCEMIP will allow the robustness of the RCE state across the spectrum of models to be assessed, which is essential for interpreting the results found regarding clouds, climate sensitivity, and aggregation, and more generally, determining which features of tropical climate a RCE framework is useful for. A novel aspect and major advantage of RCEMIP is the accessibility of the RCE framework to a variety of models, including cloud-resolving models, general circulation models, global cloud-resolving models, single-column models, and large-eddy simulation models.

  4. Technology Investments in the NASA Entry Systems Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnhardt, Michael; Wright, Michael; Hughes, Monica

    2017-01-01

    The Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) technology development project, initiated in 2012 under NASAs Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, is engaged in maturation of fundamental research developing aerosciences, materials, and integrated systems products for entry, descent, and landing(EDL)technologies [1]. To date, the ESM project has published over 200 papers in these areas, comprising the bulk of NASAs research program for EDL modeling. This presentation will provide an overview of the projects successes and challenges, and an assessment of future investments in EDL modeling and simulation relevant to NASAs mission

  5. Can model weighting improve probabilistic projections of climate change?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raeisaenen, Jouni; Ylhaeisi, Jussi S. [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48, University of Helsinki (Finland)

    2012-10-15

    Recently, Raeisaenen and co-authors proposed a weighting scheme in which the relationship between observable climate and climate change within a multi-model ensemble determines to what extent agreement with observations affects model weights in climate change projection. Within the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset, this scheme slightly improved the cross-validated accuracy of deterministic projections of temperature change. Here the same scheme is applied to probabilistic temperature change projection, under the strong limiting assumption that the CMIP3 ensemble spans the actual modeling uncertainty. Cross-validation suggests that probabilistic temperature change projections may also be improved by this weighting scheme. However, the improvement relative to uniform weighting is smaller in the tail-sensitive logarithmic score than in the continuous ranked probability score. The impact of the weighting on projection of real-world twenty-first century temperature change is modest in most parts of the world. However, in some areas mainly over the high-latitude oceans, the mean of the distribution is substantially changed and/or the distribution is considerably narrowed. The weights of individual models vary strongly with location, so that a model that receives nearly zero weight in some area may still get a large weight elsewhere. Although the details of this variation are method-specific, it suggests that the relative strengths of different models may be difficult to harness by weighting schemes that use spatially uniform model weights. (orig.)

  6. National Automated Highway System Consortium: Modeling Stakeholder Preferences Project

    OpenAIRE

    Lathrop, John; Chen, Kan

    1997-01-01

    This document is the final report of the Modeling Stakeholder Preferences Project. The results of the project consist of three results: 1) evaluation framework; 2) focus group non-quantitative findings/ recommendations; and, 3) performance/impact measures, their endpoints, rankings and weights, for each stakeholder group.

  7. Improving Project Management Using Formal Models and Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Theodore; Sturken, Ian

    2011-01-01

    This talk discusses the advantages formal modeling and architecture brings to project management. These emerging technologies have both great potential and challenges for improving information available for decision-making. The presentation covers standards, tools and cultural issues needing consideration, and includes lessons learned from projects the presenters have worked on.

  8. A whole stand basal area projection model for Appalachian hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Brooks; Lichun Jiang; Matthew Perkowski; Benktesh Sharma

    2008-01-01

    Two whole-stand basal area projection models were developed for Appalachian hardwood stands. The proposed equations are an algebraic difference projection form based on existing basal area and the change in age, trees per acre, and/or dominant height. Average equation error was less than 10 square feet per acre and residuals exhibited no irregular trends.

  9. Building Context with Tumor Growth Modeling Projects in Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Julie C.; Gevertz, Jana L.; Howard, Keith E.

    2015-01-01

    The use of modeling projects serves to integrate, reinforce, and extend student knowledge. Here we present two projects related to tumor growth appropriate for a first course in differential equations. They illustrate the use of problem-based learning to reinforce and extend course content via a writing or research experience. Here we discuss…

  10. Network model of project "Lean Production"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khisamova, E. D.

    2018-05-01

    Economical production implies primarily new approaches to culture of management and organization of production and offers a set of tools and techniques that allows reducing losses significantly and making the process cheaper and faster. Economical production tools are simple solutions that allow one to see opportunities for improvement of all aspects of the business, to reduce losses significantly, to constantly improve the whole spectrum of business processes, to increase significantly the transparency and manageability of the organization, to take advantage of the potential of each employee of the company, to increase competitiveness, and to obtain significant economic benefits without making large financial expenditures. Each of economical production tools solves a specific part of the problems, and only application of their combination will allow one to solve the problem or minimize it to acceptable values. The research of the governance process project "Lean Production" permitted studying the methods and tools of lean production and developing measures for their improvement.

  11. Projectables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Troels A.; Merritt, Timothy R.

    2017-01-01

    CNC cutting machines have become essential tools for designers and architects enabling rapid prototyping, model-building and production of high quality components. Designers often cut from new materials, discarding the irregularly shaped remains. We introduce ProjecTables, a visual augmented...... reality system for interactive packing of model parts onto sheet materials. ProjecTables enables designers to (re)use scrap materials for CNC cutting that would have been previously thrown away, at the same time supporting aesthetic choices related to wood grain, avoiding surface blemishes, and other...... relevant material properties. We conducted evaluations of ProjecTables with design students from Aarhus School of Architecture, demonstrating that participants could quickly and easily place and orient model parts reducing material waste. Contextual interviews and ideation sessions led to a deeper...

  12. Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project Digital Elevation Model, Version 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The high-resolution Radarsat Antarctic Mapping Project (RAMP) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combines topographic data from a variety of sources to provide consistent...

  13. Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

  14. DEVELOPMENT MODEL OF PATISSERIE PROJECT-BASED LEARNING

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Ana; Lutfhiyah Nurlaela

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to find a model of patisserie project-based learning with production approach that can improve effectiveness of patisserie learning. Delphi Technique, Cohen's Kappa and percentages of agreements were used to assess model of patisserie project based learning. Data collection techniques employed in the study were questionnaire, check list worksheet, observation, and interview sheets. Subjects were 13 lectures of expertise food and nutrition and 91 students of Food and Nutrition ...

  15. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  16. Downplaying model power in IT project work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Anne; Buhl, Henrik

    2004-01-01

    in the research, presented in this article, conducted in a Danish manufacturing company, is how an IT system could be configured to support shopfloor teamwork and enhance the quality of work. The approach is based on participatory design and the concept of "model power". This concept facilitates an understanding...

  17. A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Motawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.

  18. METHODS OF SELECTING THE EFFECTIVE MODELS OF BUILDINGS REPROFILING PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights the important task of project management in reprofiling of buildings. It is expedient to pay attention to selecting effective engineering solutions to reduce the duration and cost reduction at the project management in the construction industry. This article presents a methodology for the selection of efficient organizational and technical solutions for the reconstruction of buildings reprofiling. The method is based on a compilation of project variants in the program Microsoft Project and experimental statistical analysis using the program COMPEX. The introduction of this technique in the realigning of buildings allows choosing efficient models of projects, depending on the given constraints. Also, this technique can be used for various construction projects.

  19. On Helical Projection and Its Application in Screw Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riliang Liu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As helical surfaces, in their many and varied forms, are finding more and more applications in engineering, new approaches to their efficient design and manufacture are desired. To that end, the helical projection method that uses curvilinear projection lines to map a space object to a plane is examined in this paper, focusing on its mathematical model and characteristics in terms of graphical representation of helical objects. A number of interesting projective properties are identified in regard to straight lines, curves, and planes, and then the method is further investigated with respect to screws. The result shows that the helical projection of a cylindrical screw turns out to be a Jordan curve, which is determined by the screw's axial profile and number of flights. Based on the projection theory, a practical approach to the modeling of screws and helical surfaces is proposed and illustrated with examples, and its possible application in screw manufacturing is discussed.

  20. Process simulation and parametric modeling for strategic project management

    CERN Document Server

    Morales, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Process Simulation and Parametric Modeling for Strategic Project Management will offer CIOs, CTOs and Software Development Managers, IT Graduate Students an introduction to a set of technologies that will help them understand how to better plan software development projects, manage risk and have better insight into the complexities of the software development process.A novel methodology will be introduced that allows a software development manager to better plan and access risks in the early planning of a project.  By providing a better model for early software development estimation and softw

  1. Cash flow forecasting model for nuclear power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wei; Guo Jilin

    2002-01-01

    Cash flow forecasting is very important for owners and contractors of nuclear power projects to arrange the capital and to decrease the capital cost. The factors related to contractor cash flow forecasting are analyzed and a cash flow forecasting model is presented which is suitable for both contractors and owners. The model is efficiently solved using a cost-schedule data integration scheme described. A program is developed based on the model and verified with real project data. The result indicates that the model is efficient and effective

  2. Integrated modeling for the restoration project management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Mingucci

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces some possibilities offered by the Information Multimedia Archives (A.I.M., methodology aimed at existing architectures and important historic monuments documentation. The A.I.M.’s generation process and its digital archive structure result from studies on digital modeling and computer vision intended to document informative surveys, produced during two distinct acquiring and compiling phases. The data is collected in the A.I.M. through increasing levels of detail and organized through the use of databases developed in order to be queried by mobile devices too.

  3. An inter-comparison of HO2 measured by Fluorescence Assay by Gas Expansion and Cavity Ringdown Spectroscopy in the Highly Instrumented Reactor for Atmospheric Chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, A.; Onel, L. C.; Gianella, M.; Ronnie, G.; Aguila, A. L.; Hancock, G.; Whalley, L.; Seakins, P. W.; Ritchie, G.; Heard, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    HO2 is an important species in the atmosphere, as it is involved in the HOx radical reaction cycle that is critical to the oxidation of atmospheric pollutants and the ultimate cleaning of the troposphere. One of the most widely utilised methods to measure HO2 is Fluorescence Assay by Gas Expansion (FAGE), which indirectly measures HO2 by sampling into a low pressure cell and titrating HO2 with NO to produce OH that is then detected by Laser Induced Fluorescence. This is an indirect and non-absolute detection technique that requires careful calibration to convert the measured signal into [HO2], which involves the photolysis of H2O at 185 nm to produce OH and HO2, and is subject to 30 % errors at 2σ level. The work presented here shows the validation of the FAGE technique and its calibration procedure through inter-comparison experiments between the non-absolute FAGE technique and Cavity Ringdown Spectroscopy (CRDS), an absolute absorption based method. The CRDS system was used to excite the first O-H overtone of the HO2 absorption band at 1506.43 nm, and features a cavity length of 1.2 m and a total path of 60 km. The experiments were performed inside the 2.25 m3 stainless steel Highly Instrumented Reactor for Atmospheric Chemistry (HIRAC), using a synthetic air mixture at 150 and 1000 mbar of pressure and 298 K. HO2 was generated by photolysis of Cl2 at 365 nm in the presence of CH3OH and O2, and the [HO2] was monitored using both instruments. Additionally, monitoring the temporal decay of HO2 during its self-reaction provided an alternative calibration method for the FAGE instrument, and allowed the absorption cross section of HO2 at 1506.43 nm, σHO2, to be measured. FAGE calibration factors determined through the second order decays of HO2 at 1000 mbar agreed within 8 % of the H2O photolysis method, and determinations of σHO2 at 150 and 1000 mbar agree with previously reported data within 20 % and 12 % respectively. [HO2] correlation plots between the two

  4. Projected Dipole Model for Quantum Plasmonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yan, Wei; Wubs, Martijn; Mortensen, N. Asger

    2015-01-01

    of classical electrodynamics, while quantum properties are described accurately through an infinitely thin layer of dipoles oriented normally to the metal surface. The nonlocal polarizability of the dipole layer-the only introduced parameter-is mapped from the free-electron distribution near the metal surface...... as obtained with 1D quantum calculations, such as time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT), and is determined once and for all. The model can be applied in two and three dimensions to any system size that is tractable within classical electrodynamics, while capturing quantum plasmonic aspects......Quantum effects of plasmonic phenomena have been explored through ab initio studies, but only for exceedingly small metallic nanostructures, leaving most experimentally relevant structures too large to handle. We propose instead an effective description with the computationally appealing features...

  5. 3. Research Coordination Meeting (RCM) of the Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on 'Studies of advanced reactor technology options for effective incineration of radioactive waste'. Working material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    To meet expressed Member States' needs, the IAEA has initiated a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on 'Studies of Advanced Reactor Technology Options for Effective Incineration of Radioactive Waste'. The final goal of the CRP is to deepen the understanding of the dynamics of transmutation systems, e.g. the accelerator driven system, especially systems with deteriorated safety parameters, qualify the available methods, specify the range of validity of methods, and formulate requirements for future theoretical developments. Should transient experiments be available, the CRP will pursue experimental benchmarking work. In any case, based on the results, the CRP will conclude on the potential need of transient experiments and make appropriate proposals for experimental programs. The Technical Meeting in Chennai was the 3rd Research Coordination Meeting (RCM) of the CRP The man objectives of the RCM were to: - Discuss and perform inter-comparisons of the various benchmark results; - Prepare the first draft of the final CRP Report Status of the analyses and inter-comparisons of the results. The main objective of the CRP was to study innovative technology options for incinerating/utilizing radioactive wastes. The CRP's benchmarking exercises focused on eight innovative transmutation 'Domains', which correspond to different critical and sub-critical concepts or groups of concepts: I. Critical fast reactor, solid fuel, with fertile; II. Critical fast reactor, solid fuel, fertile-free; III. ADS, solid fuel, with fertile; IV. ADS, solid fuel, fertile-free; V. Critical reactor and ADS, molten salt fuel, with fertile; VI. Critical reactor and ADS, molten salt fuel, fertile-free; VII. Critical fast reactor and ADS, gas cooled; VIII. Fusion/fission hybrid system. For each of these Domains, the discussions and inter-comparisons considered the following issues: - Reactor-models; - Scenarios/phenomena; - Static analyses; - Dynamic analyses; - Methods; - Codes; - Neutronic data base

  6. International collaborative fire modeling project (ICFMP). Summary of benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roewekamp, Marina; Klein-Hessling, Walter; Dreisbach, Jason; McGrattan, Kevin; Miles, Stewart; Plys, Martin; Riese, Olaf

    2008-09-01

    This document was developed in the frame of the 'International Collaborative Project to Evaluate Fire Models for Nuclear Power Plant Applications' (ICFMP). The objective of this collaborative project is to share the knowledge and resources of various organizations to evaluate and improve the state of the art of fire models for use in nuclear power plant fire safety, fire hazard analysis and fire risk assessment. The project is divided into two phases. The objective of the first phase is to evaluate the capabilities of current fire models for fire safety analysis in nuclear power plants. The second phase will extend the validation database of those models and implement beneficial improvements to the models that are identified in the first phase of ICFMP. In the first phase, more than 20 expert institutions from six countries were represented in the collaborative project. This Summary Report gives an overview on the results of the first phase of the international collaborative project. The main objective of the project was to evaluate the capability of fire models to analyze a variety of fire scenarios typical for nuclear power plants (NPP). The evaluation of the capability of fire models to analyze these scenarios was conducted through a series of in total five international Benchmark Exercises. Different types of models were used by the participating expert institutions from five countries. The technical information that will be useful for fire model users, developers and further experts is summarized in this document. More detailed information is provided in the corresponding technical reference documents for the ICFMP Benchmark Exercises No. 1 to 5. The objective of these exercises was not to compare the capabilities and strengths of specific models, address issues specific to a model, nor to recommend specific models over others. This document is not intended to provide guidance to users of fire models. Guidance on the use of fire models is currently being

  7. Theory, modeling, and integrated studies in the Arase (ERG) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seki, Kanako; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Katoh, Yuto; Amano, Takanobu; Saito, Shinji; Shoji, Masafumi; Nakamizo, Aoi; Keika, Kunihiro; Hori, Tomoaki; Nakano, Shin'ya; Watanabe, Shigeto; Kamiya, Kei; Takahashi, Naoko; Omura, Yoshiharu; Nose, Masahito; Fok, Mei-Ching; Tanaka, Takashi; Ieda, Akimasa; Yoshikawa, Akimasa

    2018-02-01

    Understanding of underlying mechanisms of drastic variations of the near-Earth space (geospace) is one of the current focuses of the magnetospheric physics. The science target of the geospace research project Exploration of energization and Radiation in Geospace (ERG) is to understand the geospace variations with a focus on the relativistic electron acceleration and loss processes. In order to achieve the goal, the ERG project consists of the three parts: the Arase (ERG) satellite, ground-based observations, and theory/modeling/integrated studies. The role of theory/modeling/integrated studies part is to promote relevant theoretical and simulation studies as well as integrated data analysis to combine different kinds of observations and modeling. Here we provide technical reports on simulation and empirical models related to the ERG project together with their roles in the integrated studies of dynamic geospace variations. The simulation and empirical models covered include the radial diffusion model of the radiation belt electrons, GEMSIS-RB and RBW models, CIMI model with global MHD simulation REPPU, GEMSIS-RC model, plasmasphere thermosphere model, self-consistent wave-particle interaction simulations (electron hybrid code and ion hybrid code), the ionospheric electric potential (GEMSIS-POT) model, and SuperDARN electric field models with data assimilation. ERG (Arase) science center tools to support integrated studies with various kinds of data are also briefly introduced.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  8. Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

    2016-04-01

    The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

  9. Projection model for flame chemiluminescence tomography based on lens imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Minggang; Zhuang, Jihui

    2018-04-01

    For flame chemiluminescence tomography (FCT) based on lens imaging, the projection model is essential because it formulates the mathematical relation between the flame projections captured by cameras and the chemiluminescence field, and, through this relation, the field is reconstructed. This work proposed the blurry-spot (BS) model, which takes more universal assumptions and has higher accuracy than the widely applied line-of-sight model. By combining the geometrical camera model and the thin-lens equation, the BS model takes into account perspective effect of the camera lens; by combining ray-tracing technique and Monte Carlo simulation, it also considers inhomogeneous distribution of captured radiance on the image plane. Performance of these two models in FCT was numerically compared, and results showed that using the BS model could lead to better reconstruction quality in wider application ranges.

  10. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben

    2011-01-31

    To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols, but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

  11. Applying a Hybrid MCDM Model for Six Sigma Project Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Kwun Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Six Sigma is a project-driven methodology; the projects that provide the maximum financial benefits and other impacts to the organization must be prioritized. Project selection (PS is a type of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. In this study, we present a hybrid MCDM model combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL technique, analytic network process (ANP, and the VIKOR method to evaluate and improve Six Sigma projects for reducing performance gaps in each criterion and dimension. We consider the film printing industry of Taiwan as an empirical case. The results show that our study not only can use the best project selection, but can also be used to analyze the gaps between existing performance values and aspiration levels for improving the gaps in each dimension and criterion based on the influential network relation map.

  12. Managing wildland fires: integrating weather models into fire projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anne M. Rosenthal; Francis Fujioka

    2004-01-01

    Flames from the Old Fire sweep through lands north of San Bernardino during late fall of 2003. Like many Southern California fires, the Old Fire consumed susceptible forests at the urban-wildland interface and spread to nearby city neighborhoods. By incorporating weather models into fire perimeter projections, scientist Francis Fujioka is improving fire modeling as a...

  13. Improvement of the projection models for radiogenic cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong Jian

    2005-01-01

    Calculations of radiogenic cancer risk are based on the risk projection models for specific cancer sites. Improvement has been made for the parameters used in the previous models including introductions of mortality and morbidity risk coefficients, and age-/ gender-specific risk coefficients. These coefficients have been applied to calculate the radiogenic cancer risks for specific organs and radionuclides under different exposure scenarios. (authors)

  14. Development and application of new quality model for software projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnavel, K; Dillibabu, R

    2014-01-01

    The IT industry tries to employ a number of models to identify the defects in the construction of software projects. In this paper, we present COQUALMO and its limitations and aim to increase the quality without increasing the cost and time. The computation time, cost, and effort to predict the residual defects are very high; this was overcome by developing an appropriate new quality model named the software testing defect corrective model (STDCM). The STDCM was used to estimate the number of remaining residual defects in the software product; a few assumptions and the detailed steps of the STDCM are highlighted. The application of the STDCM is explored in software projects. The implementation of the model is validated using statistical inference, which shows there is a significant improvement in the quality of the software projects.

  15. Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2018-02-01

    Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

  16. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.; Cillan, T.

    1993-09-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.4 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement. Those interested in using the SWPM database should refer to the SWPM Database User's Guide. This document is available from the PNL Task M Project Manager (D. L. Stiles, 509-372-4358), the PNL Task L Project Manager (L. L. Armacost, 509-372-4304), the WHC Restoration Projects Section Manager (509-372-1443), or the WHC Waste Characterization Manager (509-372-1193)

  17. Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

    2017-11-01

    An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

  18. Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.; Katz, J.; Barnett, J.

    2014-09-01

    NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

  19. Modeling Manpower and Equipment Productivity in Tall Building Construction Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudumbai Krishnaswamy, Parthasarathy; Rajiah, Murugasan; Vasan, Ramya

    2017-12-01

    Tall building construction projects involve two critical resources of manpower and equipment. Their usage, however, widely varies due to several factors affecting their productivity. Currently, no systematic study for estimating and increasing their productivity is available. What is prevalent is the use of empirical data, experience of similar projects and assumptions. As tall building projects are here to stay and increase, to meet the emerging demands in ever shrinking urban spaces, it is imperative to explore ways and means of scientific productivity models for basic construction activities: concrete, reinforcement, formwork, block work and plastering for the input of specific resources in a mixed environment of manpower and equipment usage. Data pertaining to 72 tall building projects in India were collected and analyzed. Then, suitable productivity estimation models were developed using multiple linear regression analysis and validated using independent field data. It is hoped that the models developed in the study will be useful for quantity surveyors, cost engineers and project managers to estimate productivity of resources in tall building projects.

  20. On reducibility and ergodicity of population projection matrix models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    from all stages to all other stages) and therefore ergodic (whatever initial stage structure is used in the population projection, it will always exhibit the same stable asymptotic growth rate). 2. Evaluation of 652 PPM models for 171 species from the literature suggests that 24·7% of PPM models...... structure used in the population projection). In our sample of published PPMs, 15·6% are non-ergodic. 3. This presents a problem: reducible–ergodic models often defy biological rationale in their description of the life cycle but may or may not prove problematic for analysis as they often behave similarly...... of reducibility in published PPMs, with significant implications for the predictive power of such models in many cases. We suggest that as a general rule, reducibility of PPM models should be avoided. However, we provide a guide to the pertinent analysis of reducible matrix models, largely based upon whether...

  1. A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

  2. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    OpenAIRE

    Frantisek Jelenciak; Michael Gerke; Ulrich Borgolte

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM) as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that - in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a...

  3. The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-11-01

    As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

  4. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR IMPROVED PROJECT SELECTION AND PRIORITISATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Viljoen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Project portfolio management processes are often designed and operated as a series of stages (or project phases and gates. However, the flow of such a process is often slow, characterised by queues waiting for a gate decision and by repeated work from previous stages waiting for additional information or for re-processing. In this paper the authors propose a conceptual model that applies supply chain and constraint management principles to the project portfolio management process. An advantage of the proposed model is that it provides the ability to select and prioritise projects without undue changes to project schedules. This should result in faster flow through the system.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Prosesse om portefeuljes van projekte te bestuur word normaalweg ontwerp en bedryf as ’n reeks fases en hekke. Die vloei deur so ’n proses is dikwels stadig en word gekenmerk deur toue wat wag vir besluite by die hekke en ook deur herwerk van vorige fases wat wag vir verdere inligting of vir herprosessering. In hierdie artikel word ‘n konseptuele model voorgestel. Die model berus op die beginsels van voorsieningskettings sowel as van beperkingsbestuur, en bied die voordeel dat projekte geselekteer en geprioritiseer kan word sonder onnodige veranderinge aan projekskedules. Dit behoort te lei tot versnelde vloei deur die stelsel.

  5. Construction project investment control model based on instant information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xue-tong

    2006-01-01

    Change of construction conditions always influences project investment by causing the loss of construction work time and extending the duration. To resolve such problem as difficult dynamic control in work construction plan, this article presents a concept of instant optimization by ways of adjustment operation time of each working procedure to minimize investment change. Based on this concept, its mathematical model is established and a strict mathematical justification is performed. An instant optimization model takes advantage of instant information in the construction process to duly complete adjustment of construction; thus we maximize cost efficiency of project investment.

  6. Multi-model-based Access Control in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Hilbert

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available During the execution of large scale construction projects performed by Virtual Organizations (VO, relatively complex technical models have to be exchanged between the VO members. For linking the trade and transfer of these models, a so-called multi-model container format was developed. Considering the different skills and tasks of the involved partners, it is not necessary for them to know all the models in every technical detailing. Furthermore, the model size can lead to a delay in communication. In this paper an approach is presented for defining model cut-outs according to the current project context. Dynamic dependencies to the project context as well as static dependencies on the organizational structure are mapped in a context-sensitive rule. As a result, an approach for dynamic filtering of multi-models is obtained which ensures, together with a filtering service, that the involved VO members get a simplified view of complex multi-models as well as sufficient permissions depending on their tasks.

  7. The Timber Resource Inventory Model (TRIM): a projection model for timber supply and policy analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.L. Tedder; R.N. La Mont; J.C. Kincaid

    1987-01-01

    TRIM (Timber Resource Inventory Model) is a yield table projection system developed for timber supply projections and policy analysis. TRIM simulates timber growth, inventories, management and area changes, and removals over the projection period. Programs in the TRIM system, card-by-card descriptions of required inputs, table formats, and sample results are presented...

  8. SESAME as a Model Project for Other Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winick, Herman

    2013-03-01

    UNESCO became the umbrella organization for SESAME at its Executive Board 164th session, May 2002. The following comments about SESAME were made by this board: ``a quintessential UNESCO project combining capacity building with vital peace-building through science'' and ``a model project for other regions.'' Now that SESAME is well underway, other regions (e.g.; Africa and Central Asia) should be made aware of this progress, and they should be welcomed to join SESAME as a first step in developing similar projects in their region. Students and scientists from other regions should be encouraged to attend SESAME Users' meeting, schools, workshops, etc. where they can learn about synchrotron radiation sources, beamlines, and science. They should be invited to join SESAME scientists in designing and commissioning accelerators and beamlines, gaining relevant experience for their own projects and helping SESAME in the process. Work supported by DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences

  9. The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Si-hua Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  10. The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Sheng-hua; Xiong, Neal N.

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. PMID:25147845

  11. The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

  12. Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojian

    The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water

  13. Incentive Model Based on Cooperative Relationship in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Considering the cooperative relationship between owners and contractors in sustainable construction projects, as well as the synergistic effects created by cooperative behaviors, a cooperative incentive model was developed using game theory. The model was formulated and analyzed under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations. Then, a numerical simulation and example were proposed to verify the conclusions derived from the model. The results showed that the synergistic effect increases the input intensity of one party’s resource transfer into the increase of marginal utility of the other party, thus the owner and contractor are willing to enhance their levels of effort. One party’s optimal benefit allocation coefficient is positively affected by its own output efficiency, and negatively affected by the other party’s output efficiency. The effort level and expected benefits of the owner and contractor can be improved by enhancing the cooperative relationship between the two parties, as well as enhancing the net benefits of a sustainable construction project. The synergistic effect cannot lower the negative effect of moral hazard behaviors during the implementation of sustainable construction projects. Conversely, the higher levels of the cooperative relationship, the wider the gaps amongst the optimal values under both non-moral hazard and moral hazard situations for the levels of effort, expected benefits and net project benefits. Since few studies to date have emphasized the effects of cooperative relationship on sustainable construction projects, this study constructed a game-based incentive model to bridge the gaps. This study contributes significant theoretical and practical insights into the management of cooperation amongst stakeholders, and into the enhancement of the overall benefits of sustainable construction projects.

  14. Project W-320 thermal hydraulic model benchmarking and baselining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathyanarayana, K.

    1998-01-01

    Project W-320 will be retrieving waste from Tank 241-C-106 and transferring the waste to Tank 241-AY-102. Waste in both tanks must be maintained below applicable thermal limits during and following the waste transfer. Thermal hydraulic process control models will be used for process control of the thermal limits. This report documents the process control models and presents a benchmarking of the models with data from Tanks 241-C-106 and 241-AY-102. Revision 1 of this report will provide a baselining of the models in preparation for the initiation of sluicing

  15. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

  16. Modelling Project Feasibility Robustness by Use of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Claus Rehfeld; Leleur, Steen

    1998-01-01

    , SEAM secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. SEAM is implemented as part of a decision support system with a toolbox structure applicable to different types of transport...

  17. Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

  18. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2013-01-01

    At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillslopes and channels can be created and simulated with this GUI. However,...

  19. Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of Markovian model to school enrolment projection process. VU Ekhosuehi, AA Osagiede. Abstract. No Abstract. Global Journal of Mathematical Sciences Vol. 5(1) 2006: 9-16. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  20. МULTI-STAKEHOLDER MODEL OF EDUCATION PROJECT QUALITY MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Юлия Юрьевна ГУСЕВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of approaches to the definition of higher education projects’ stakeholders is conducted. A model of education project quality management with the influence of stakeholders is formed. A mechanism of recognition of new groups of project’s stakeholders on the basis of set theory is offered.

  1. Projected shell model study of neutron- deficient 122Ce

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Projected shell model; band diagram; yrast energies; electromagnetic quan- ... signed to 122Ce by detecting γ-rays in coincidence with evaporated charged particles .... 0.75 from the free nucleon values to account for the core-polarization and ...

  2. Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Project Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bader, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-18

    The E3SM project will assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system and climate models at the leading edge of scientific knowledge and computational capabilities. With its collaborators, it will demonstrate its leadership by using these models to achieve the goal of designing, executing, and analyzing climate and Earth system simulations that address the most critical scientific questions for the nation and DOE.

  3. Modelling of project cash flow on construction projects in Malang city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djatmiko, Bambang

    2017-09-01

    Contractors usually prepare a project cash flow (PCF) on construction projects. The flow of cash in and cash out within a construction project may vary depending on the owner, contract documents, and construction service providers who have their own authority. Other factors affecting the PCF are down payment, termyn, progress schedule, material schedule, equipment schedule, manpower schedules, and wages of workers and subcontractors. This study aims to describe the cash inflow and cash outflow based on the empirical data obtained from contractors, develop a PCF model based on Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model, and investigate whether or not there is a significant difference between the Halpen & Woodhead's PCF model and the empirical PCF model. Based on the researcher's observation, the PCF management has never been implemented by the contractors in Malang in serving their clients (owners). The research setting is in Malang City because physical development in all field and there are many new construction service providers. The findings in this current study are summarised as follows: 1) Cash in included current assets (20%), owner's down payment (20%), termyin I (5%-25%), termyin II (20%), termyin III (25%), termyin IV (25%) and retention (5%). Cash out included direct cost (65%), indirect cost (20%), and profit + informal cost(15%), 2)the construction work involving the empirical PCF model in this study was started with the funds obtained from DP or current assets and 3) The two models bear several similarities in the upward trends of direct cost, indirect cost, Pro Ic, progress billing, and S-curve. The difference between the two models is the occurrence of overdraft in the Halpen and Woodhead's PCF model only.

  4. Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, J.; Frías, M. D.; Cabos, W. D.; Cofiño, A. S.; Domínguez, M.; Fita, L.; Gaertner, M. A.; García-Díez, M.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Liguori, G.; Montávez, J. P.; Romera, R.; Sánchez, E.

    2018-03-01

    We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021-2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM-RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes.

  5. Project Finance Model for Small Contractors in USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jawahar Nesan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects do not require a large capital outlay but a large working capital to start up the project. Unfortunately, for small contractors there are very limited options available from the banks or other lending institutions to cover this large working capital requirement in the absence of sufficient collateral. The “Project Finance” method presented in this paper is recommended as the most effective method for small contractors in the United States. The problems of small and start up contractors in funding their projects have been little addressed in the literature. The current financing practices were observed through both the literature review and interviews with contractors and bankers in the western Michigan area and subsequently a system has been proposed which could help a small start-up company seeking higher growth. The growth rates that can be achieved using the project finance system in contrast to the traditional “line of credit” arrangements as illustrated in this paper show that the project finance model is beneficial.

  6. Twisted sigma-model solitons on the quantum projective line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landi, Giovanni

    2018-04-01

    On the configuration space of projections in a noncommutative algebra, and for an automorphism of the algebra, we use a twisted Hochschild cocycle for an action functional and a twisted cyclic cocycle for a topological term. The latter is Hochschild-cohomologous to the former and positivity in twisted Hochschild cohomology results into a lower bound for the action functional. While the equations for the critical points are rather involved, the use of the positivity and the bound by the topological term lead to self-duality equations (thus yielding twisted noncommutative sigma-model solitons, or instantons). We present explicit nontrivial solutions on the quantum projective line.

  7. Results of the ITER toroidal field model coil project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salpietro, E.; Maix, R.

    2001-01-01

    In the scope of the ITER EDA one of the seven largest projects was devoted to the development, manufacture and testing of a Toroidal Field Model Coil (TFMC). The industry consortium AGAN manufactured the TFMC based on on a conceptual design developed by the ITER EDA EU Home Team. The TFMC was completed and assembled in the test facility TOSKA of the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe in the first half of 2001. The first testing phase started in June 2001 and lasted till October 2001. The first results have shown that the main goals of the project have been achieved

  8. Integration of models for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Napier, B.A.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions from nuclear operations at Hanford since 1944. The objective of phase 1 of the project was to demonstrate through calculations that adequate models and support data exist or could be developed to allow realistic estimations of doses to individuals from releases of radionuclides to the environment that occurred as long as 45 years ago. Much of the data used in phase 1 was preliminary; therefore, the doses calculated must be considered preliminary approximations. This paper describes the integration of various models that was implemented for initial computer calculations. Models were required for estimating the quantity of radioactive material released, for evaluating its transport through the environment, for estimating human exposure, and for evaluating resultant doses

  9. Lectures on nonlinear sigma-models in projective superspace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzenko, Sergei M

    2010-01-01

    N= 2 supersymmetry in four spacetime dimensions is intimately related to hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler geometries. On one hand, the target spaces for rigid supersymmetric sigma-models are necessarily hyperkaehler manifolds. On the other hand, when coupled to N= 2 supergravity, the sigma-model target spaces must be quaternionic Kaehler. It is known that such manifolds of restricted holonomy are difficult to generate explicitly. Projective superspace is a field-theoretic approach to construct general N= 2 supersymmetric nonlinear sigma-models, and hence to generate new hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler metrics. Intended for a mixed audience consisting of both physicists and mathematicians, these lectures provide a pedagogical introduction to the projective-superspace approach. (topical review)

  10. Lectures on nonlinear sigma-models in projective superspace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuzenko, Sergei M, E-mail: kuzenko@cyllene.uwa.edu.a [School of Physics M013, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009 (Australia)

    2010-11-05

    N= 2 supersymmetry in four spacetime dimensions is intimately related to hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler geometries. On one hand, the target spaces for rigid supersymmetric sigma-models are necessarily hyperkaehler manifolds. On the other hand, when coupled to N= 2 supergravity, the sigma-model target spaces must be quaternionic Kaehler. It is known that such manifolds of restricted holonomy are difficult to generate explicitly. Projective superspace is a field-theoretic approach to construct general N= 2 supersymmetric nonlinear sigma-models, and hence to generate new hyperkaehler and quaternionic Kaehler metrics. Intended for a mixed audience consisting of both physicists and mathematicians, these lectures provide a pedagogical introduction to the projective-superspace approach. (topical review)

  11. Global asymptotic stability of density dependent integral population projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Townley, Stuart

    2012-02-01

    Many stage-structured density dependent populations with a continuum of stages can be naturally modeled using nonlinear integral projection models. In this paper, we study a trichotomy of global stability result for a class of density dependent systems which include a Platte thistle model. Specifically, we identify those systems parameters for which zero is globally asymptotically stable, parameters for which there is a positive asymptotically stable equilibrium, and parameters for which there is no asymptotically stable equilibrium. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Validation of 131I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvonova, I.; Krajewski, P.; Berkovsky, V.; Ammann, M.; Duffa, C.; Filistovic, V.; Homma, T.; Kanyar, B.; Nedveckaite, T.; Simon, S.L.; Vlasov, O.; Webbe-Wood, D.

    2009-01-01

    Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of 131I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of 137Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and 131I/137Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of 131I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of 131I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions. A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten. PMID:19783331

  13. City of Austin: Green habitat learning project. A green builder model home project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-01

    The purpose of the Year 14 UCETF project was to design and construct a residential structure that could serve as a demonstration facility, training site, and testing and monitoring laboratory for issues related to the implementation of sustainable building practices and materials. The Model Home Project builds on the previous and existing efforts, partially funded by the UCETF, of the City of Austin Green Builder Program to incorporate sustainable building practices into mainstream building activities. The Green Builder Program uses the term {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} as a synonym for sustainability. In the research and analysis that was completed for our earlier reports in Years 12 and 13, we characterized specific elements that we associate with sustainability and, thus, green building. In general, we refer to a modified life cycle assessment to ascertain if {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building options reflect similar positive cyclical patterns found in nature (i.e. recyclability, recycled content, renewable resources, etc.). We additionally consider economic, human health and synergistic ecological impacts associated with our building choices and characterize the best choices as {open_quotes}green.{close_quotes} Our ultimate goal is to identify and use those {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials and processes that provide well for us now and do not compromise similar benefits for future generations. The original partnership developed for this project shifted during the year from a project stressing advanced (many prototypical) {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} building materials and techniques in a research and demonstration context, to off-the-shelf but underutilized {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} materials in the practical social context of using {open_quotes}green{close_quotes} technologies for low income housing. That project, discussed in this report, is called the Green Habitat Learning Project.

  14. Models of Charity Donations and Project Funding in Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojciechowski, Adam

    One of the key fundaments of building a society is common interest or shared aims of the group members. This research work is a try to analyze web-based services oriented towards money collection for various social and charity projects. The phenomenon of social founding is worth a closer look at because its success strongly depends on the ability to build an ad-hoc or persistent groups of people sharing their believes and willing to support external institutions or individuals. The paper presents a review of money collection sites, various models of donation and money collection process as well as ways how the projects' results are reported to their founders. There is also a proposal of money collection service, where donators are not charged until total declared help overheads required resources to complete the project. The risk of missing real donations for declared payments, after the collection is closed, can be assessed and minimized by building a social network.

  15. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Helene; Douville, Herve; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.; hide

    2017-01-01

    The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions 'How does the Earth system respond to forcing?' and 'What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?' and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation

  16. A conceptual model of psychological contracts in construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongjian Ke

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The strategic importance of relationship style contracting is recognised in the construction industry. Both public and private sector clients are stipulating more integrated and collaborative forms of procurement. Despite relationship and integrated contractual arrangement being available for some time, it is clear that construction firms have been slow to adopt them. Hence it is timely to examine how social exchanges, via unwritten agreement and behaviours, are being nurtured in construction projects. This paper adopted the concept of Psychological Contracts (PC to describe unwritten agreement and behaviours. A conceptual model of the PC is developed and validated using the results from a questionnaire survey administered to construction professionals in Australia. The results uncovered the relationships that existed amongst relational conditions and relational benefits, the PC and the partners’ satisfaction. The results show that all the hypotheses in the conceptual model of the PC are supported, suggesting the PC model is important and may have an effect on project performance and relationship quality among contracting parties. A validated model of the PC in construction was then developed based on the correlations among each component. The managerial implications are that past relationships and relationship characteristics should be taken into account in the selection of procurement partners and the promise of future resources, support and tangible relational outcomes are also vital. It is important for contracting parties to pay attention to unwritten agreements (the PC and behaviours when managing construction projects.

  17. Applying the World Water and Agriculture Model to Filling Scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villa, Daniel L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The World Water and Agriculture Model has been used to simulate water, hydropower, and food sector effects in Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia during the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This unique capability allows tradeoffs to be made between filling policies for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir. This Nile River Basin study is presented to illustrate the capacity to use the World Water and Agriculture Model to simulate regional food security issues while keeping a global perspective. The study uses runoff data from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 and information from the literature in order to establish a reasonable set of hydrological initial conditions. Gross Domestic Product and population growth are modelled exogenously based on a composite projection of United Nations and World Bank data. The effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under various percentages of water withheld are presented.

  18. A Model Suggestion to Predict Leverage Ratio for Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özlem Tüz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the nature, construction is an industry with high uncertainty and risk. Construction industry carries high leverage ratios. Firms with low equities work in big projects through progress payment system, but in this case, even a small negative in the planned cash flows constitute a major risk for the company.The use of leverage, with a small investment to achieve profit targets large-scale, high-profit, but also brings a high risk with it. Investors may lose all or the portion of the money. In this study, monitoring and measuring of the leverage ratio because of the displacement in cash inflows of construction projects which uses high leverage and low cash to do business in the sector is targeted. Cash need because of drifting the cash inflows may be seen due to the model. Work should be done in the early stages of the project with little capital but in the later stages, rapidly growing capital need arises.The values obtained from the model may be used to supply the capital held in the right time by anticipating the risks because of the delay in cashflow of construction projects which uses high leverage ratio.

  19. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Physics Models For Diagnostics Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    The project will use high-fidelity physics models and simulations to simulate real-time operations of cryogenic and systems and calculate the status/health of the systems. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. The capability will also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenic system operations. This project will develop and implement high-fidelity physics-based modeling techniques tosimulate the real-time operation of cryogenics and other fluids systems and, when compared to thereal-time operation of the actual systems, provide assessment of their state. Physics-modelcalculated measurements (called “pseudo-sensors”) will be compared to the system real-timedata. Comparison results will be utilized to provide systems operators with enhanced monitoring ofsystems' health and status, identify off-nominal trends and diagnose system/component failures.This capability can also be used to conduct planning and analysis of cryogenics and other fluidsystems designs. This capability will be interfaced with the ground operations command andcontrol system as a part of the Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance (AGSM) project to helpassure system availability and mission success. The initial capability will be developed for theLiquid Oxygen (LO2) ground loading systems.

  20. Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burmistrov, Andrey; Siniavina, Maria; Iliashenko, Oksana

    2018-03-01

    The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models) based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

  1. Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burmistrov Andrey

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

  2. Project Management in Public Administration. TPM – Total Project Management Maturity Model. The Case of Slovenian Public Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana ŽURGA

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the article is to present the importance of project management for the functioning of public administration, and its contribution to the realization of the developmental goals of the government. For this, integration of strategic management and project management is of vital importance. The methodology used is a combination of literature review, a case study of project management in public administration of the Republic of Slovenia, and development of a maturity model of project management in public administration, with its verifi cation on the case of Slovenia. The main contribution of the study is development of TPM – Total Project Management maturity model for public administration. Upon the TPM maturity model, project management in Slovene public administration is assessed and discussed. Out of fi ve maturity levels, the results for project management in Slovene public administration are: management of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of programs of projects – level 2 (initiated, management of portfolios of projects – level 3 (implemented, organizational support for project management – level 3 (implemented, HRM for project management – level 2 (initiated, and integration of project management and strategic management – level 3 (implemented. General fi ndings and recommendations in this respect are drawn, together with indicated areas for possible further research and investigation.

  3. Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Elizabeth A; Polvani, Lorenzo M; Sobel, Adam H

    2013-09-17

    Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy's unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast.

  4. Project ECHO: A Telementoring Network Model for Continuing Professional Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Sanjeev; Kalishman, Summers G; Thornton, Karla A; Komaromy, Miriam S; Katzman, Joanna G; Struminger, Bruce B; Rayburn, William F

    2017-01-01

    A major challenge with current systems of CME is the inability to translate the explosive growth in health care knowledge into daily practice. Project ECHO (Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes) is a telementoring network designed for continuing professional development (CPD) and improving patient outcomes. The purpose of this article was to describe how the model has complied with recommendations from several authoritative reports about redesigning and enhancing CPD. This model links primary care clinicians through a knowledge network with an interprofessional team of specialists from an academic medical center who provide telementoring and ongoing education enabling community clinicians to treat patients with a variety of complex conditions. Knowledge and skills are shared during weekly condition-specific videoconferences. The model exemplifies learning as described in the seven levels of CPD by Moore (participation, satisfaction, learning, competence, performance, patient, and community health). The model is also aligned with recommendations from four national reports intended to redesign knowledge transfer in improving health care. Efforts in learning sessions focus on information that is relevant to practice, focus on evidence, education methodology, tailoring of recommendations to individual needs and community resources, and interprofessionalism. Project ECHO serves as a telementoring network model of CPD that aligns with current best practice recommendations for CME. This transformative initiative has the potential to serve as a leading model for larger scale CPD, nationally and globally, to enhance access to care, improve quality, and reduce cost.

  5. Radioactive waste management. International projects on biosphere modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carboneras, P.; Cancio, D.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents a general overview and discussion on the state of art concerning the biospheric transfer and accumulation of contaminants. A special emphasis is given to the progress achieved in the field of radioactive contaminants and particularly to those implied in radioactive waste disposal. The objectives and advances of the international projects BIOMOVS and VAMP on validation of model predictions are also described. (Author)

  6. Projected shell model description of N = 114 superdeformed isotone nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, R S; Chen, L M; Chou, C H

    2006-01-01

    A systematic description of the yrast superdeformed (SD) bands in N 114, Z = 80-84 isotone nuclei using the projected shell model is presented. The calculated γ-ray energies, moment of inertia and M1 transitions are compared with the data for which spin is assigned. Excellent agreement with the available data for all isotones is obtained. The calculated electromagnetic properties provide a microscopic understanding of those measured nuclei. Some predictions in superdeformed nuclei are also discussed

  7. Atomic Data and Modelling for Fusion: the ADAS Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Summers, H. P.; O'Mullane, M. G.

    2011-01-01

    The paper is an update on the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure, ADAS, since ICAM-DATA06 and a forward look to its evolution in the next five years. ADAS is an international project supporting principally magnetic confinement fusion research. It has participant laboratories throughout the world, including ITER and all its partner countries. In parallel with ADAS, the ADAS-EU Project provides enhanced support for fusion research at Associated Laboratories and Universities in Europe and ITER. OPEN-ADAS, sponsored jointly by the ADAS Project and IAEA, is the mechanism for open access to principal ADAS atomic data classes and facilitating software for their use. EXTENDED-ADAS comprises a variety of special, integrated application software, beyond the purely atomic bounds of ADAS, tuned closely to specific diagnostic analyses and plasma models.The current scientific content and scope of these various ADAS and ADAS related activities are briefly reviewed. These span a number of themes including heavy element spectroscopy and models, charge exchange spectroscopy, beam emission spectroscopy and special features which provide a broad baseline of atomic modelling and support. Emphasis will be placed on 'lifting the fundamental data baseline'--a principal ADAS task for the next few years. This will include discussion of ADAS and ADAS-EU coordinated and shared activities and some of the methods being exploited.

  8. Solid Waste Projection Model: Database (Version 1.3)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackburn, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    The Solid Waste Projection Model (SWPM) system is an analytical tool developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). The SWPM system provides a modeling and analysis environment that supports decisions in the process of evaluating various solid waste management alternatives. This document, one of a series describing the SWPM system, contains detailed information regarding the software and data structures utilized in developing the SWPM Version 1.3 Database. This document is intended for use by experienced database specialists and supports database maintenance, utility development, and database enhancement

  9. RTMOD: Real-Time MODel evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graziani, G.; Galmarini, S.; Mikkelsen, Torben

    2000-01-01

    the RTMOD web page for detailed information on the actual release, and as soon as possible they then uploaded their predictions to the RTMOD server and could soon after start their inter-comparison analysis with other modellers. When additionalforecast data arrived, already existing statistical results....... At that time, the World Wide Web was not available to all the exercise participants, and plume predictions were therefore submitted to JRC-Ispra by fax andregular mail for subsequent processing. The rapid development of the World Wide Web in the second half of the nineties, together with the experience gained...... during the ETEX exercises suggested the development of this project. RTMOD featured a web-baseduser-friendly interface for data submission and an interactive program module for displaying, intercomparison and analysis of the forecasts. RTMOD has focussed on model intercomparison of concentration...

  10. Contractual Efficiency of PPP Infrastructure Projects: An Incomplete Contract Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Shi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses the contractual efficiency of public-private partnership (PPP infrastructure projects, with a focus on two financial aspects: the nonrecourse principal and incompleteness of debt contracts. The nonrecourse principal releases the sponsoring companies from the debt contract when the special purpose vehicle (SPV established by the sponsoring companies falls into default. Consequently, all obligations under the debt contract are limited to the liability of the SPV following its default. Because the debt contract is incomplete, a renegotiation of an additional loan between the bank and the SPV might occur to enable project continuation or liquidation, which in turn influences the SPV’s ex ante strategies (moral hazard. Considering these two financial features of PPP infrastructure projects, this study develops an incomplete contract model to investigate how the renegotiation triggers ex ante moral hazard and ex post inefficient liquidation. We derive equilibrium strategies under service fees endogenously determined via bidding and examine the effect of equilibrium strategies on contractual efficiency. Finally, we propose an optimal combination of a performance guarantee, the government’s termination right, and a service fee to improve the contractual efficiency of PPP infrastructure projects.

  11. Revenue Risk Modelling and Assessment on BOT Highway Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novianti, T.; Setyawan, H. Y.

    2018-01-01

    The infrastructure project which is considered as a public-private partnership approach under BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) arrangement, such as a highway, is risky. Therefore, assessment on risk factors is essential as the project have a concession period and is influenced by macroeconomic factors and consensus period. In this study, pre-construction risks of a highway were examined by using a Delphi method to create a space for offline expert discussions; a fault tree analysis to map intuition of experts and to create a model from the underlying risk events; a fuzzy logic to interpret the linguistic data of risk models. The loss of revenue for risk tariff, traffic volume, force majeure, and income were then measured. The results showed that the loss of revenue caused by the risk tariff was 10.5% of the normal total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the risk of traffic volume was 21.0% of total revenue. The loss of revenue caused by the force majeure was 12.2% of the normal income. The loss of income caused by the non-revenue events was 6.9% of the normal revenue. It was also found that the volume of traffic was the major risk of a highway project because it related to customer preferences.

  12. Projective limits of state spaces III. Toy-models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanéry, Suzanne; Thiemann, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    In this series of papers, we investigate the projective framework initiated by Kijowski (1977) and Okołów (2009, 2014, 2013) [1,2], which describes the states of a quantum theory as projective families of density matrices. A short reading guide to the series can be found in Lanéry (2016). A strategy to implement the dynamics in this formalism was presented in our first paper Lanéry and Thiemann (2017) (see also Lanéry, 2016, section 4), which we now test in two simple toy-models. The first one is a very basic linear model, meant as an illustration of the general procedure, and we will only discuss it at the classical level. In the second one, we reformulate the Schrödinger equation, treated as a classical field theory, within this projective framework, and proceed to its (non-relativistic) second quantization. We are then able to reproduce the physical content of the usual Fock quantization.

  13. Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

  14. Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt; B.M. Jones,

    2012-01-01

    Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

  15. Multimode model for projective photon-counting measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tualle-Brouri, Rosa; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Dantan, Aurelien; Grangier, Philippe; Wubs, Martijn; Soerensen, Anders S.

    2009-01-01

    We present a general model to account for the multimode nature of the quantum electromagnetic field in projective photon-counting measurements. We focus on photon-subtraction experiments, where non-Gaussian states are produced conditionally. These are useful states for continuous-variable quantum-information processing. We present a general method called mode reduction that reduces the multimode model to an effective two-mode problem. We apply this method to a multimode model describing broadband parametric down-conversion, thereby improving the analysis of existing experimental results. The main improvement is that spatial and frequency filters before the photon detector are taken into account explicitly. We find excellent agreement with previously published experimental results, using fewer free parameters than before, and discuss the implications of our analysis for the optimized production of states with negative Wigner functions.

  16. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  17. Supporting Current Energy Conversion Projects through Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, S. C.; Roberts, J.

    2016-02-01

    The primary goals of current energy conversion (CEC) technology being developed today are to optimize energy output and minimize environmental impact. CEC turbines generate energy from tidal and current systems and create wakes that interact with turbines located downstream of a device. The placement of devices can greatly influence power generation and structural reliability. CECs can also alter the environment surrounding the turbines, such as flow regimes, sediment dynamics, and water quality. These alterations pose potential stressors to numerous environmental receptors. Software is needed to investigate specific CEC sites to simulate power generation and hydrodynamic responses of a flow through a CEC turbine array so that these potential impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, this software can be used to optimize array layouts that yield the least changes to the environmental (i.e., hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and water quality). Through model calibration exercises, simulated wake profiles and turbulence intensities compare favorably to the experimental data and demonstrate the utility and accuracy of a fast-running tool for future siting and analysis of CEC arrays in complex domains. The Delft3D modeling tool facilitates siting of CEC projects through optimization of array layouts and evaluation of potential environmental effect all while provide a common "language" for academics, industry, and regulators to be able to discuss the implications of marine renewable energy projects. Given the enormity of any full-scale marine renewable energy project, it necessarily falls to modeling to evaluate how array operations must be addressed in an environmental impact statement in a way that engenders confidence in the assessment of the CEC array to minimize environmental effects.

  18. Eradicating the tsetse fly on Zanzibar Island: A model project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Tsetse flies infest vast areas of Africa and transmit a parasitic disease which devastates livestock herds and spreads debilitating 'sleeping sickness' amongst people. Past efforts to control the disease - Trypanosomosis - and the carrier insects have met with only limited success. But now an environmentally friendly technology called the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) may provide a lasting solution to this scourge. Working with the Tanzanian Government and Zanzibar authorities, the Department of Technical Co-operation has sponsored a 'Model Project', with technical support from the Joint FAO/IAEA Division, to eradicate the tsetse fly completely from Zanzibar Island by applying SIT. (IAEA)

  19. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Hydrogeological modelling. Final Report - Volume 6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townley, L.R.; Trefry, M.G.; Barr, A.D.; Braumiller, S.

    1992-01-01

    This volume describes hydrogeological modelling carried out as part of the Alligator Rivers Analogue Project. Hydrogeology has played a key integrating role in the Project, largely because water movement is believed to have controlled the evolution of the Koongarra uranium Orebody and therefore affects field observations of all types at all scales. Aquifer testing described uses the concept of transmissivity in its interpretation of aquifer response to pumping. The concept of an aquifer, a layer transmitting significant quantities of water in a mainly horizontal direction, seems hard to accept in an environment as heterogeneous as that at Koongarra. But modelling of aquifers both in one dimension and two dimensionally in plan has contributed significantly to our understanding of the site. A one-dimensional model with three layers (often described as a quasi two dimensional model) was applied to flow between the Fault and Koongarra Creek. Being a transient model, this model was able to show that reverse flows can indeed occur back towards the Fault, but only if there is distributed recharge over the orebody as well as a mechanism for the Fault, or a region near the Fault, to remove water from the simulated cross-section. The model also showed clearly that the response of the three-layered system, consisting of a highly weathered zone, a fractured transmissive zone and a less conductive lower schist zone, is governed mainly by the transmissivity and storage coefficient of the middle layer. The storage coefficient of the higher layer has little effect. A two-dimensional model in plan used a description of anisotropy to show that reverse flows can also occur even without a conducting Fault. Modelling of a three-dimensional region using discrete fractures showed that it is certainly possible to simulate systems like that observed at Koongarra, but that large amounts of data are probably needed to obtain realistic descriptions of the fracture networks. Inverse modelling

  20. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Hydrogeological modelling. Final Report - Volume 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Townley, L R; Trefry, M G; Barr, A D [CSIRO Div of Water Resources, PO Wembley, WA (Australia); Braumiller, S [Univ of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Dept of Hydrology and Water Resources; Kawanishi, M [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko-Shi, Chiba-Ken (Japan); and others

    1993-12-31

    This volume describes hydrogeological modelling carried out as part of the Alligator Rivers Analogue Project. Hydrogeology has played a key integrating role in the Project, largely because water movement is believed to have controlled the evolution of the Koongarra uranium Orebody and therefore affects field observations of all types at all scales. Aquifer testing described uses the concept of transmissivity in its interpretation of aquifer response to pumping. The concept of an aquifer, a layer transmitting significant quantities of water in a mainly horizontal direction, seems hard to accept in an environment as heterogeneous as that at Koongarra. But modelling of aquifers both in one dimension and two dimensionally in plan has contributed significantly to our understanding of the site. A one-dimensional model with three layers (often described as a quasi two dimensional model) was applied to flow between the Fault and Koongarra Creek. Being a transient model, this model was able to show that reverse flows can indeed occur back towards the Fault, but only if there is distributed recharge over the orebody as well as a mechanism for the Fault, or a region near the Fault, to remove water from the simulated cross-section. The model also showed clearly that the response of the three-layered system, consisting of a highly weathered zone, a fractured transmissive zone and a less conductive lower schist zone, is governed mainly by the transmissivity and storage coefficient of the middle layer. The storage coefficient of the higher layer has little effect. A two-dimensional model in plan used a description of anisotropy to show that reverse flows can also occur even without a conducting Fault. Modelling of a three-dimensional region using discrete fractures showed that it is certainly possible to simulate systems like that observed at Koongarra, but that large amounts of data are probably needed to obtain realistic descriptions of the fracture networks. Inverse modelling

  1. Project-Management Tools for Libraries: A Planning and Implementation Model Using Microsoft Project 2000

    OpenAIRE

    Ying Zhang; Corinne Bishop

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses how Microsoft Project 2000 was utilized at the University of Central Florida Libraries to manage an e-reference implementation project. As libraries today adopt more information technologies, efficiently managing projects can be challenging. The authors’ experience in the implementation of QuestionPoint e-reference software in October 2003 is described. Their conclusion illustrates that project-management tools, such as Microsoft Project 2000, offer practical workflow-man...

  2. Comparison of additive (absolute) risk projection models and multiplicative (relative) risk projection models in estimating radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki; Kusama, Tomoko

    1990-01-01

    Lifetime cancer risk estimates depend on risk projection models. While the increasing lengths of follow-up observation periods of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki bring about changes in cancer risk estimates, the validity of the two risk projection models, the additive risk projection model (AR) and multiplicative risk projection model (MR), comes into question. This paper compares the lifetime risk or loss of life-expectancy between the two projection models on the basis of BEIR-III report or recently published RERF report. With Japanese cancer statistics the estimates of MR were greater than those of AR, but a reversal of these results was seen when the cancer hazard function for India was used. When we investigated the validity of the two projection models using epidemiological human data and animal data, the results suggested that MR was superior to AR with respect to temporal change, but there was little evidence to support its validity. (author)

  3. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  4. The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, J. S.; Prins, E. M.; Westphal, D.; Richardson, K.; Christopher, S.; Schmidt, C.; Theisen, M.; Eck, T.; Reid, E. A.

    2001-12-01

    The Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) project was initiated by NASA, the US Navy and NOAA to monitor biomass burning and burning emissions on a global scale. The idea behind the mission is to integrate remote sensing data with global and regional transport models in real time for the purpose of providing the scientific community with smoke and fire products for planning and research purposes. FLAMBE is currently utilizing real time satellite data from GOES satellites, fire products based on the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) are generated for the Western Hemisphere every 30 minutes with only a 90 minute processing delay. We are currently collaborating with other investigators to gain global coverage. Once generated, the fire products are used to input smoke fluxes into the NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System, where advection forecasts are performed for up to 6 days. Subsequent radiative transfer calculations are used to estimate top of atmosphere and surface radiative forcing as well as surface layer visibility. Near real time validation is performed using field data collected by Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Sun photometers. In this paper we fully describe the FLAMBE project and data availability. Preliminary result from the previous year will also be presented, with an emphasis on the development of algorithms to determine smoke emission fluxes from individual fire products. Comparisons to AERONET Sun photometer data will be made.

  5. Modelling of Airship Flight Mechanics by the Projection Equivalent Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frantisek Jelenciak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the projection equivalent method (PEM as a specific and relatively simple approach for the modelling of aircraft dynamics. By the PEM it is possible to obtain a mathematic al model of the aerodynamic forces and momentums acting on different kinds of aircraft during flight. For the PEM, it is a characteristic of it that -in principle - it provides an acceptable regression model of aerodynamic forces and momentums which exhibits reasonable and plausible behaviour from a dynamics viewpoint. The principle of this method is based on applying Newton's mechanics, which are then combined with a specific form of the finite element method to cover additional effects. The main advantage of the PEM is that it is not necessary to carry out measurements in a wind tunnel for the identification of the model's parameters. The plausible dynamical behaviour of the model can be achieved by specific correction parameters, which can be determined on the basis of experimental data obtained during the flight of the aircraft. In this article, we present the PEM as applied to an airship as well as a comparison of the data calculated by the PEM and experimental flight data.

  6. Evaluation model of project complexity for large-scale construction projects in Iran - A Fuzzy ANP approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliyeh Kazemi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects have always been complex. By growing trend of this complexity, implementations of large-scale constructions become harder. Hence, evaluating and understanding these complexities are critical. Correct evaluation of a project complication can provide executives and managers with good source to use. Fuzzy analytic network process (ANP is a logical and systematic approach toward defining, evaluation, and grading. This method allows for analyzing complex systems, and determining complexity of them. In this study, by taking advantage of fuzzy ANP, effective indexes for development of complications in large-scale construction projects in Iran have been determined and prioritized. The results show socio-political, project system interdependencies, and technological complexity indexes ranked top to three. Furthermore, in comparison of three main huge projects: commercial-administrative, hospital, and skyscrapers, the hospital project had been evaluated as the most complicated. This model is beneficial for professionals in managing large-scale projects.

  7. Benefits of Building Information Modelling in the Project Lifecycle: Construction Projects in Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Li

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Building Information Modelling (BIM is a process involving the creation and management of objective data with property, unique identity and relationship. In the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC industry, BIM is adopted a lot in the lifecycle of buildings because of the high integration of information that it enables. Four-dimensional (4D computer-aided design (CAD has been adopted for many years to improve the construction planning process. BIM is adopted throughout buildings' lifecycles, in design, construction and operation. This paper presents five large-scale public and financial projects that adopt BIM in the design, construction and operational phases. Different uses of BIM are compared and contrasted in the context of the separate backgrounds. It is concluded that productivity is improved where BIM is used to enable easy sharing and integration of information and convenient collaboration.

  8. PROBLEMS OF VALUE-ORIENTED FORMATION OF PROJECT PRODUCT’S MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Тигран Георгиевич ГРИГОРЯН

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Problems of formation of the project output model related to the complexity of information transmission in the communication between the project participants and stakeholders are considered. The concept of forming a project output model based on allocation of stages of model developing and specification and efficiency of the formation of a model that takes into account the need to plan the project output value creation and transferring to the sponsor and consumers is proposed.

  9. Hydrogeological model of the territory of Kowsar hydraulic project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orekhov Vyacheslav Valentinovich

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical hydrogeology model of the territory of Kowsar Project was created with account for the results of the engineering surveys and hydro geological monitoring, which was conducted in the process of Kowsar Project construction. In order to create the model in the present work a universal computer system Ansys was used, which implements the finite element method and solid modeling technology, allowing to solve the filtration problem with the use of thermal analogy. The three-dimensional geometric model was built with use of the principle “hard body” modeling, which displays the main line of the territory relief, including the created water reservoir, geological structure (anticline Duk and the main lithological complexes developed within the territory. In the limestone mass As here is a zone characterized by water permeability on territory of Kowsar Project, and a layer characterized by seepage feeding, which occurs outside the considered territory. The water reservoir is a source of the change of hydro geological situation. The results of field observations witness, that the levels of underground waters within the area of the main structures reacts almost instantly on the water level change in the water reservoir; the delay period of levels change is not more than 1,5…2,0 weeks at maximum distance from the water reservoir. These particularities of the hydro geological regime allow using the steady-state scheme of the decision of forecast problems. The mass of limestone As, containing the structures of the Kowsar Project, is not homogeneous and anisotropy in its seepage characteristics. The heterogeneity is conditioned by exogenous influence on the mass up to the depth of 100…150 m. The seepage anisotropy of the mass is expressed by the difference of water permeability of the mass along and across the layers for almost one order. The structures of Kowsar Project is presented by a dam, grouting curtain on axis of the dam and

  10. Implementing parallel spreadsheet models for health policy decisions: The impact of unintentional errors on model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Stephanie L; Bono, Rose S; Nash, Denis; Kimmel, April D

    2018-01-01

    Spreadsheet software is increasingly used to implement systems science models informing health policy decisions, both in academia and in practice where technical capacity may be limited. However, spreadsheet models are prone to unintentional errors that may not always be identified using standard error-checking techniques. Our objective was to illustrate, through a methodologic case study analysis, the impact of unintentional errors on model projections by implementing parallel model versions. We leveraged a real-world need to revise an existing spreadsheet model designed to inform HIV policy. We developed three parallel versions of a previously validated spreadsheet-based model; versions differed by the spreadsheet cell-referencing approach (named single cells; column/row references; named matrices). For each version, we implemented three model revisions (re-entry into care; guideline-concordant treatment initiation; immediate treatment initiation). After standard error-checking, we identified unintentional errors by comparing model output across the three versions. Concordant model output across all versions was considered error-free. We calculated the impact of unintentional errors as the percentage difference in model projections between model versions with and without unintentional errors, using +/-5% difference to define a material error. We identified 58 original and 4,331 propagated unintentional errors across all model versions and revisions. Over 40% (24/58) of original unintentional errors occurred in the column/row reference model version; most (23/24) were due to incorrect cell references. Overall, >20% of model spreadsheet cells had material unintentional errors. When examining error impact along the HIV care continuum, the percentage difference between versions with and without unintentional errors ranged from +3% to +16% (named single cells), +26% to +76% (column/row reference), and 0% (named matrices). Standard error-checking techniques may not

  11. Dryout modeling in support of the organic tank safety project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, C.S.

    1998-08-01

    This work was performed for the Organic Tank Safety Project to evaluate the moisture condition of the waste surface organic-nitrate bearing tanks that are classified as being conditionally safe because sufficient water is present. This report describes the predictive modeling procedure used to predict the moisture content of waste in the future, after it has been subjected to dryout caused by water vapor loss through passive ventilation. This report describes a simplified procedure for modeling the drying out of tank waste. Dryout occurs as moisture evaporates from the waste into the headspace and then exits the tank through ventilation. The water vapor concentration within the waste of the headspace is determined by the vapor-liquid equilibrium, which depends on the waste's moisture content and temperature. This equilibrium has been measured experimentally for a variety of waste samples and is described by a curve called the water vapor partial pressure isotherm. This curve describes the lowering of the partial pressure of water vapor in equilibrium with the waste relative to pure water due to the waste's chemical composition and hygroscopic nature. Saltcake and sludge are described by two distinct calculations that emphasize the particular physical behavior or each. A simple, steady-state model is devised for each type to obtain the approximate drying behavior. The report shows the application of the model to Tanks AX-102, C-104, and U-105

  12. The project of model practices in family medicine in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tonka Poplas Susič

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Primary health care has undergone great changes as a consequence of demographic changes, growing patients’ awareness and organizational changes in the healthcare system. Declining interest in family medicine specialization further worsens the situation. In the period of lack of GPs and their overloading, it is necessary to include a diploma graduate nurse in the team of GPs and to define competencies and activities in such a way that encourage more active approach to the patients, meeting the indicators of quality.The purpose of the article is to describe the project of model practice in Slovenia and to present some results.Methods: A model practice introduces a new concept in the areas of human resource standards (to existing team, a diploma graduate nurse is included on a part-time basis; work competences (use of protocols for the treatment of chronic patients, extended and well-defined preventive screenings, establishing registers of chronic patients and assessing quality by means of quality indicators and work management (redistribution of workload .Results: Due to great interest of general practitioners, a total of 271 model practices were introduced in 2011 and 2012. MPs have been distributed evenly through different regions inSlovenia. Registers of patients with chronic diseases (COPD, asthma and diabetes have been established and during the preventive screening, on average 2 patients with a chronic disease and 15 patients with risk factors have been detected. Patients are treated actively according to their needs rather than their preferences.Conclusions: The project of MPs enables a high quality and cost effectiveness of patients’ treatment in family medicine. With a gradual introducing of new MPs, a well planed and monitored patients’ care will be implemented in the practice. In a long run, disburdening of a secondary care level and more rational consumption of drugs are expected

  13. Flyover Modeling of Planetary Pits - Undergraduate Student Instrument Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhasin, N.; Whittaker, W.

    2015-12-01

    On the surface of the moon and Mars there are hundreds of skylights, which are collapsed holes that are believed to lead to underground caves. This research uses Vision, Inertial, and LIDAR sensors to build a high resolution model of a skylight as a landing vehicle flies overhead. We design and fabricate a pit modeling instrument to accomplish this task, implement software, and demonstrate sensing and modeling capability on a suborbital reusable launch vehicle flying over a simulated pit. Future missions on other planets and moons will explore pits and caves, led by the technology developed by this research. Sensor software utilizes modern graph-based optimization techniques to build 3D models using camera, LIDAR, and inertial data. The modeling performance was validated with a test flyover of a planetary skylight analog structure on the Masten Xombie sRLV. The trajectory profile closely follows that of autonomous planetary powered descent, including translational and rotational dynamics as well as shock and vibration. A hexagonal structure made of shipping containers provides a terrain feature that serves as an appropriate analog for the rim and upper walls of a cylindrical planetary skylight. The skylight analog floor, walls, and rim are modeled in elevation with a 96% coverage rate at 0.25m2 resolution. The inner skylight walls have 5.9cm2 color image resolution and the rims are 6.7cm2 with measurement precision superior to 1m. The multidisciplinary student team included students of all experience levels, with backgrounds in robotics, physics, computer science, systems, mechanical and electrical engineering. The team was commited to authentic scientific experimentation, and defined specific instrument requirements and measurable experiment objectives to verify successful completion.This work was made possible by the NASA Undergraduate Student Instrument Project Educational Flight Opportunity 2013 program. Additional support was provided by the sponsorship of an

  14. Project Investment and Project Financing: A study on Business Case and Financing Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Simiao

    2012-01-01

    Uncertainty is a very significant factor that must be taken into consideration in project front-end phase management. By taking into uncertainty, the planners can to a great extent make sure that the business case could be accurate between specific intervals, hence business case can be based on to make decision. In a highly uncertain environment; the project sponsors should prefer other means to finance the project rather than using debt. Risk management is extremely important in project fina...

  15. Projected Heat Wave Characteristics over the Korean Peninsula During the Twenty-First Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Jongsoo; Olson, Roman; An, Soon-Il

    2018-02-01

    Climate change is expected to increase temperatures globally, and consequently more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves are likely to occur. Ambiguity in defining heat waves appropriately makes it difficult to compare changes in heat wave events over time. This study provides a quantitative definition of a heat wave and makes probabilistic heat wave projections for the Korean Peninsula under two global warming scenarios. Changes to heat waves under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 30 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. Probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles have been constructed using both simple and weighted averaging. Results from both methods are similar and show that heat waves will be more intense, frequent, and longer lasting. These trends are more apparent under the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, typical heat waves are projected to become stronger than any heat wave experienced in the recent measurement record. Furthermore, under this scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Korea will experience heat wave conditions spanning almost an entire summer before the end of the 21st century.

  16. Validation of fracture flow models in the Stripa project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, A.; Dershowitz, W.; Long, J.; Hodgkinson, D.

    1991-01-01

    One of the objectives of Phase III of the Stripa Project is to develop and evaluate approaches for the prediction of groundwater flow and nuclide transport in a specific unexplored volume of the Stripa granite and make a comparison with data from field measurements. During the first stage of the project, a prediction of inflow to the D-holes, an array of six parallel closely spaced 100m boreholes, was made based on data from six other boreholes. This data included fracture geometry, stress, single borehole geophysical logging, crosshole and reflection radar and seismic tomogram, head monitoring and single hole packer test measurements. Maps of fracture traces on the drift walls have also been made. The D-holes are located along a future Validation Drift which will be excavated. The water inflow to the D-holes has been measured in an experiment called the Simulated Drift Experiment. The paper reviews the Simulated Drift Experiment validation exercise. Following a discussion of the approach to validation, the characterization data and its preliminary interpretation are summarised and commented upon. That work has proved feasible to carry through all the complex and interconnected tasks associated with the gathering and interpretation of characterization data, the development and application of complex models, and the comparison with measured inflows. This exercise has provided detailed feed-back to the experimental and theoretical work required for measurements and predictions of flow into the Validation Drift. Computer codes used: CHANGE, FRACMAN, MAFIC, NAPSAC and TRINET. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 19 refs

  17. Modeling of problems of projection: A non-countercyclic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Ginsburg

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a computational implementation of the recent Problems of Projection (POP approach to the study of language (Chomsky 2013; 2015. While adopting the basic proposals of POP, notably with respect to how labeling occurs, we a attempt to formalize the basic proposals of POP, and b develop new proposals that overcome some problems with POP that arise with respect to cyclicity, labeling, and wh-movement operations. We show how this approach accounts for simple declarative sentences, ECM constructions, and constructions that involve long-distance movement of a wh-phrase (including the that-trace effect. We implemented these proposals with a computer model that automatically constructs step-by-step derivations of target sentences, thus making it possible to verify that these proposals work.

  18. Inter-comparison between Hermesv2.0 and TNO-MAC-II emission data using the Caliope air quality system (Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guevara, M.; Pay, M.T.; Martinez, F.; Soret, A.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Baldasano, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    This work examines and compares the performance of two emission datasets on modelling air quality concentrations for Spain: (i) the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emissions System (HERMESv2.0) and (ii) the TNO-MACC-II emission inventory. For this purpose, the air quality system CALIOPE-AQFS

  19. Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Butler, D.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.; hide

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions

  20. A framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jin; Li, Zheng; Li, Shuliang; Zhang, Yanyan

    2015-07-01

    There is still a lack of effective paradigms and tools for analysing and discovering the contents and relationships of project knowledge contexts in the field of project management. In this paper, a new framework for extracting and representing project knowledge contexts using topic models and dynamic knowledge maps under big data environments is proposed and developed. The conceptual paradigm, theoretical underpinning, extended topic model, and illustration examples of the ontology model for project knowledge maps are presented, with further research work envisaged.

  1. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epiney, Aaron S.; Kinoshita, Robert A.; Kim, Jong Suk; Rabiti, Cristian; Greenwood, M. Scott

    2016-01-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  2. Software development infrastructure for the HYBRID modeling and simulation project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Epiney, Aaron S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kim, Jong Suk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Greenwood, M. Scott [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    One of the goals of the HYBRID modeling and simulation project is to assess the economic viability of hybrid systems in a market that contains renewable energy sources like wind. The idea is that it is possible for the nuclear plant to sell non-electric energy cushions, which absorb (at least partially) the volatility introduced by the renewable energy sources. This system is currently modeled in the Modelica programming language. To assess the economics of the system, an optimization procedure is trying to find the minimal cost of electricity production. The RAVEN code is used as a driver for the whole problem. It is assumed that at this stage, the HYBRID modeling and simulation framework can be classified as non-safety “research and development” software. The associated quality level is Quality Level 3 software. This imposes low requirements on quality control, testing and documentation. The quality level could change as the application development continues.Despite the low quality requirement level, a workflow for the HYBRID developers has been defined that include a coding standard and some documentation and testing requirements. The repository performs automated unit testing of contributed models. The automated testing is achieved via an open-source python script called BuildingsP from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. BuildingsPy runs Modelica simulation tests using Dymola in an automated manner and generates and runs unit tests from Modelica scripts written by developers. In order to assure effective communication between the different national laboratories a biweekly videoconference has been set-up, where developers can report their progress and issues. In addition, periodic face-face meetings are organized intended to discuss high-level strategy decisions with management. A second means of communication is the developer email list. This is a list to which everybody can send emails that will be received by the collective of the developers and managers

  3. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL INITIATION OF PROJECT IN A FORM OF MARKOV CHAIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Катерина Вікторівна КОЛЕСНІКОВА

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The model of the initiation of projects which reproduces a fragment of the general scheme of interaction between the main entities in the project initiation phase is created. Determined that the project initiation through communication links between the four main entities: projects team, environment, the project itself and the customer. The result of the initiation of projects in the emerging communications referred to objects in the design phase through consistency requirements of stakeholders and the adoption of the basic concepts of projects, goal-projects, project planning, evaluation requirements of specialization and competence required for the formation of the project team. This Markov chain is part of the control circuit that includes elements such as the temporary organizational structure of the project design, project team, customer, and environment project. It is shown that the Markov model of interaction between project participants in their initiation phase, taking into account the role of a key player in the project ‑ the customer can determine changes of state and generate recommendations for initiating projects. Results of the study can serve as a basis for creating models of control objects that contain its organizational structure and reflect the parametric properties of the system to obtain information needed for decision making to initiate projects

  4. Sustainability, creativity and innovation in project management – Model development for assessing organizational performance through projects

    OpenAIRE

    Szabó, Lajos

    2016-01-01

    Today a number of studies are published on how organizational strategy is developed and how organizations contribute to local and regional development through the realization of these strategies. There are also many articles dealing with the success of a project by identifying the criteria and the factors that influence them. This article introduces the project-oriented strategic planning process that reveals how projects contribute to local and regional development and demonstrates the relat...

  5. The CTQ flowdown as a conceptual model of project objectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Koning, H.; de Mast, J.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe and clarify a tool that is at the core of the definition phase of most quality improvement projects. This tool is called the critical to quality (CTQ) flowdown. It relates high-level strategic focal points to project objectives. In their turn project

  6. Building an Experiential Learning Model for a Project Management Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kuan C.; Chuang, Keh-Wen

    2009-01-01

    Teaching students to become project management professionals requires a real world experience. Incorporating live clients into student projects, instead of using case studies or mock companies, adds a dimension that exposes students to the realities of project management. This paper will describe a structured methodology used in a project…

  7. GIS embedded hydrological modeling: the SID&GRID project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsi, I.; Rossetto, R.; Schifani, C.

    2012-04-01

    The SID&GRID research project, started April 2010 and funded by Regione Toscana (Italy) under the POR FSE 2007-2013, aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) for water resource management and planning based on open source and public domain solutions. In order to quantitatively assess water availability in space and time and to support the planning decision processes, the SID&GRID solution consists of hydrological models (coupling 3D existing and newly developed surface- and ground-water and unsaturated zone modeling codes) embedded in a GIS interface, applications and library, where all the input and output data are managed by means of DataBase Management System (DBMS). A graphical user interface (GUI) to manage, analyze and run the SID&GRID hydrological models based on open source gvSIG GIS framework (Asociación gvSIG, 2011) and a Spatial Data Infrastructure to share and interoperate with distributed geographical data is being developed. Such a GUI is thought as a "master control panel" able to guide the user from pre-processing spatial and temporal data, running the hydrological models, and analyzing the outputs. To achieve the above-mentioned goals, the following codes have been selected and are being integrated: 1. Postgresql/PostGIS (PostGIS, 2011) for the Geo Data base Management System; 2. gvSIG with Sextante (Olaya, 2011) geo-algorithm library capabilities and Grass tools (GRASS Development Team, 2011) for the desktop GIS; 3. Geoserver and Geonetwork to share and discover spatial data on the web according to Open Geospatial Consortium; 4. new tools based on the Sextante GeoAlgorithm framework; 5. MODFLOW-2005 (Harbaugh, 2005) groundwater modeling code; 6. MODFLOW-LGR (Mehl and Hill 2005) for local grid refinement; 7. VSF (Thoms et al., 2006) for the variable saturated flow component; 8. new developed routines for overland flow; 9. new algorithms in Jython integrated in gvSIG to compute the net rainfall rate reaching the soil surface, as input for

  8. Galerkin v. discrete-optimal projection in nonlinear model reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Barone, Matthew Franklin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Antil, Harbir [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Discrete-optimal model-reduction techniques such as the Gauss{Newton with Approximated Tensors (GNAT) method have shown promise, as they have generated stable, accurate solutions for large-scale turbulent, compressible ow problems where standard Galerkin techniques have failed. However, there has been limited comparative analysis of the two approaches. This is due in part to difficulties arising from the fact that Galerkin techniques perform projection at the time-continuous level, while discrete-optimal techniques do so at the time-discrete level. This work provides a detailed theoretical and experimental comparison of the two techniques for two common classes of time integrators: linear multistep schemes and Runge{Kutta schemes. We present a number of new ndings, including conditions under which the discrete-optimal ROM has a time-continuous representation, conditions under which the two techniques are equivalent, and time-discrete error bounds for the two approaches. Perhaps most surprisingly, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that decreasing the time step does not necessarily decrease the error for the discrete-optimal ROM; instead, the time step should be `matched' to the spectral content of the reduced basis. In numerical experiments carried out on a turbulent compressible- ow problem with over one million unknowns, we show that increasing the time step to an intermediate value decreases both the error and the simulation time of the discrete-optimal reduced-order model by an order of magnitude.

  9. Initialization of the Euler model MODIS with field data from the 'EPRI plume model validation project'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, G.; Eppel, D.; Lautenschlager, M.; Mueller, A.

    1985-01-01

    The program deck MODIS (''MOment DIStribution'') is designed to be used as operational tool for modelling the dispersion of a point source under general atmospheric conditions. The concentration distribution is determined by calculating its cross-wind moments on a vertical grid oriented in the main wind direction. The model contains a parametrization for horizontal and vertical coefficients based on a second order closure model. The Eulerian time scales, preliminary determined by fitting measured plume cross sections, are confirmed by comparison with data from the EPRI plume model validation project. (orig.) [de

  10. SELECTION OF EFFECTIVE MODELS OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION IN A CHANGING FINANCIAL SITUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Иванович МЕНЕЙЛЮК

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the methods of selecting effective models of construction projects of residential buildings and recommendations for its use. The technique is based on the construction of the models in the program Microsoft Project and analysis using the program COMPEX. Methods can be used not only for building projects. It is especially effective in a variable financial situation.

  11. Study on the maturity model of nuclear power project management in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Changbing; Li Huiqiang; Zheng Yanguo

    2009-01-01

    Based on the general project management maturity model, this paper discussed the establishment of nuclear power engineering project management maturity model in China, and proposed a basic framework in order to provide a way for improving and evaluating the ability of nuclear power project management in China. (authors)

  12. An alternative projection model of future nuclear capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takei, Mitsuo

    1985-01-01

    There is generally a high degree of uncertainty involved in the projection of growth of any energy source, especially when the projection extends 50 years ahead. The 1982 OECD/NEA Report, 'Nuclear Energy and its Fuel Cycle Prospect to 2025' notes the downturn in past projections of nuclear capacity over the past decade. It is obvious that rapidly changing conditions have affected overall worldwide energy and economic growth and the field of nuclear power has been subject to changes specific to itself. These have caused past projections to become obsolete and therefore it would seem necessary to implement a new projection method to improve the accuracy of present forecasting. (author)

  13. A process model for design team communication within fast-track building projects using project websites

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Otter, den A.F.H.J.; Reymen, I.M.M.J.

    2008-01-01

    The factor time within building projects is on high pressure because of the increasing need for faster delivery of buildings. Within fast track, complex building projects the design process is an important key. Through case analyses offart-hack design processes it became obvious that process and

  14. The Copenhagen Traffic Model and its Application in the Metro City Ring Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vuk, Goran; Overgård, Christian Hansen; Fox, J.

    2009-01-01

    In June 2007, the Danish Parliament passed an act to finance the construction of the Metro City Ring in Copenhagen. The assessment project is based on the passenger patronage forecasts for 2015 from the Copenhagen traffic model. In this paper we show how the model forecasts for this particular...... infrastructure project can be explained through detailed knowledge of model structure and model validation....

  15. THE PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION MODEL OF INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND MANAGERIAL FEASIBILITY OF THEIR BEHAVIOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ye. Uvarov

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In the article the basic problem of substantiation of parameters of optimization model of organizationaltechnological solutions for investment-building projects in the system of project management is considered.

  16. Inter-comparison between HERMESv2.0 and TNO-MACC-II emission data using the CALIOPE air quality system (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guevara, Marc; Pay, María Teresa; Martínez, Francesc; Soret, Albert; Denier van der Gon, Hugo; Baldasano, José M.

    2014-12-01

    This work examines and compares the performance of two emission datasets on modelling air quality concentrations for Spain: (i) the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emissions System (HERMESv2.0) and (ii) the TNO-MACC-II emission inventory. For this purpose, the air quality system CALIOPE-AQFS (WRF-ARW/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b) was run over Spain for February and June 2009 using the two emission datasets (4 km × 4 km and 1 h). Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), Ozone (O3) and particular matter (PM10) modelled concentrations were compared with measurements at different type of air quality stations (i.e. rural background, urban, suburban industrial). A preliminary emission comparison showed significant discrepancies between the two datasets, highlighting an overestimation of industrial emissions in urban areas when using TNO-MACC-II. However, simulations showed similar performances of both emission datasets in terms of air quality. Modelled NO2 concentrations were similar between both datasets at the background stations, although TNO-MACC-II presented lower underestimations due to differences in industrial, other mobile sources and residential emissions. At Madrid urban stations NO2 was significantly underestimated in both cases despite the fact that HERMESv2.0 estimates traffic emissions using a more local information and detailed methodology. This NO2 underestimation problem was not found in Barcelona due to the influence of international shipping emissions located in the coastline. An inadequate characterization of some TNO-MACC-II's point sources led to high SO2 biases at industrial stations, especially in northwest Spain where large facilities are grouped. In general, surface O3 was overestimated regardless of the emission dataset used, depicting the problematic of CMAQ on overestimating low ozone at night. On the other hand, modelled PM10 concentrations were less underestimated in urban areas when applying HERMESv2.0 due to the inclusion of road dust

  17. A Model-Driven Visualization Tool for Use with Model-Based Systems Engineering Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trase, Kathryn; Fink, Eric

    2014-01-01

    Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) promotes increased consistency between a system's design and its design documentation through the use of an object-oriented system model. The creation of this system model facilitates data presentation by providing a mechanism from which information can be extracted by automated manipulation of model content. Existing MBSE tools enable model creation, but are often too complex for the unfamiliar model viewer to easily use. These tools do not yet provide many opportunities for easing into the development and use of a system model when system design documentation already exists. This study creates a Systems Modeling Language (SysML) Document Traceability Framework (SDTF) for integrating design documentation with a system model, and develops an Interactive Visualization Engine for SysML Tools (InVEST), that exports consistent, clear, and concise views of SysML model data. These exported views are each meaningful to a variety of project stakeholders with differing subjects of concern and depth of technical involvement. InVEST allows a model user to generate multiple views and reports from a MBSE model, including wiki pages and interactive visualizations of data. System data can also be filtered to present only the information relevant to the particular stakeholder, resulting in a view that is both consistent with the larger system model and other model views. Viewing the relationships between system artifacts and documentation, and filtering through data to see specialized views improves the value of the system as a whole, as data becomes information

  18. A New Bi-Directional Projection Model Based on Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Variable

    OpenAIRE

    Huidong Wang; Shifan He; Xiaohong Pan

    2018-01-01

    To solve the multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problems with Pythagorean uncertain linguistic variable, an extended bi-directional projection method is proposed. First, we utilize the linguistic scale function to convert uncertain linguistic variable and provide a new projection model, subsequently. Then, to depict the bi-directional projection method, the formative vectors of alternatives and ideal alternatives are defined. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with projection model is co...

  19. Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

    2017-07-01

    Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

  20. Long-term durum wheat monoculture: modelling and future projection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ettore Bernardoni

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The potential effects of future climate change on grain production of a winter durum wheat cropping system were investigated. Based on future climate change projections, derived from a statistical downscaling process applied to the HadCM3 general circulation model and referred to two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1, the response on yield and aboveground biomass (AGB and the variation in total organic carbon (TOC were explored. The software used in this work is an hybrid dynamic simulation model able to simulate, under different pedoclimatic conditions, the processes involved in cropping system such as crop growth and development, water and nitrogen balance. It implements different approaches in order to ensure accurate simulation of the mainprocess related to soil-crop-atmosphere continuum.The model was calibrated using soil data, crop yield, AGB and phenology coming from a long-term experiment, located in Apulia region. The calibration was performed using data collected in the period 1978–1990; validation was carried out on the 1991–2009 data. Phenology simulation was sufficiently accurate, showing some limitation only in predicting the physiological maturity. Yields and AGBs were predicted with an acceptable accuracy during both calibration and validation. CRM resulted always close to optimum value, EF in every case scored positive value, the value of index r2 was good, although in some cases values lower than 0.6 were calculated. Slope of the linear regression equation between measured and simulated values was always close to 1, indicating an overall good performance of the model. Both future climate scenarios led to a general increase in yields but a slightly decrease in AGB values. Data showed variations in the total production and yield among the different periods due to the climate variation. TOC evolution suggests that the combination of temperature and precipitation is the main factor affecting TOC variation under future scenarios

  1. Form factors in the projected linear chiral sigma model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberto, P.; Coimbra Univ.; Bochum Univ.; Ruiz Arriola, E.; Fiolhais, M.; Urbano, J.N.; Coimbra Univ.; Goeke, K.; Gruemmer, F.; Bochum Univ.

    1990-01-01

    Several nucleon form factors are computed within the framework of the linear chiral soliton model. To this end variational means and projection techniques applied to generalized hedgehog quark-boson Fock states are used. In this procedure the Goldberger-Treiman relation and a virial theorem for the pion-nucleon form factor are well fulfilled demonstrating the consistency of the treatment. Both proton and neutron charge form factors are correctly reproduced, as well as the proton magnetic one. The shapes of the neutron magnetic and of the axial form factors are good but their absolute values at the origin are too large. The slopes of all the form factors at zero momentum transfer are in good agreement with the experimental data. The pion-nucleon form factor exhibits to great extent a monopole shape with a cut-off mass of Λ=690 MeV. Electromagnetic form factors for the vertex γNΔ and the nucleon spin distribution are also evaluated and discussed. (orig.)

  2. Research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yucheng Zeng

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to build enterprise project culture evaluation model and search for the best evaluation method for Chinese enterprise project culture on the basis of studying and drawing lessons from enterprise culture evaluation theory and method at home and abroad. Design/methodology/approach: Referring to the Denison enterprise culture evaluation model, this paper optimizes it according to the difference of enterprise project culture, designs the enterprise project culture evaluation model and proves the practicability of the model through empirical. Finding: This paper finds that it`s more applicable to use the Denison model for enterprise project culture evaluation through the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign enterprise culture evaluation theory and method, the systematic project culture management framework of Chinese enterprises has not yet formed through empirical research, and four factors in enterprise project culture have important influence on project operation performance improvement. Research limitations/implications: The research on evaluation of enterprise project culture based on Denison model is a preliminary attempt, the design of evaluation index system, evaluation model and scale structure also need to be improved, but the thinking of this paper in this field provides a valuable reference for future research. Practical Implications: This paper provides the support of theory and practice for evaluating the present situation of enterprise project culture construction and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of project culture, which contributes to the "dialectical therapy" of enterprise project management, enterprise management and enterprise project culture construction. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is the introduction of Denison enterprise culture model. Combining with the actual situation of enterprises, this paper also builds the evaluation model for

  3. BOT schemes as financial model of hydro power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grausam, A.

    1997-01-01

    Build-operate-transfer (BOT) schemes are the latest methods adopted in the developing infrastructure projects. This paper outlines the project financing through BOT schemes and briefly focuses on the factors particularly relevant to hydro power projects. Hydro power development provides not only the best way to produce electricity, it can also solve problems in different fields, such as navigation problems in case of run-of-the river plants, ground water management systems and flood control etc. This makes HPP projects not cheaper, but hydro energy is a clean and renewable energy and the hydro potential worldwide will play a major role to meet the increased demand in future. 5 figs

  4. Performance evaluation of elemental analysis/isotope ratio mass spectrometry methods for the determination of the D/H ratio in tetramethylurea and other compounds--results of a laboratory inter-comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bréas, Olivier; Thomas, Freddy; Zeleny, Reinhard; Calderone, Giovanni; Jamin, Eric; Guillou, Claude

    2007-01-01

    Tetramethylurea (TMU) with a certified D/H ratio is the internal standard for Site-specific Natural Isotope Fractionation measured by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (SNIF-NMR) analysis of wine ethanol for detection of possible adulterations (Commission Regulation 2676/90). A new batch of a TMU certified reference material (CRM) is currently being prepared. Whereas SNIF-NMR has been employed up to now, Elemental Analysis/Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry ((2)H-EA-IRMS) was envisaged as the method of choice for value assignment of the new CRM, as more precise (better repeatable) data might be obtained, resulting in lower uncertainty of the certified value. In order to evaluate the accuracy and intra- and inter-laboratory reproducibility of (2)H-EA-IRMS methods, a laboratory inter-comparison was carried out by analysing TMU and other organic compounds, as well as some waters. The results revealed that experienced laboratories are capable of generating robust and well comparable data, which highlights the emerging potential of IRMS in food authenticity testing. However, a systematic bias between IRMS and SNIF-NMR reference data was observed for TMU; this lack of data consistency rules out the (2)H-IRMS technique for the characterisation measurement of the new TMU CRM.

  5. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  6. PMF5.0 vs. CMB8.2: An inter-comparison study based on the new European SPECIEUROPE database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bove, Maria Chiara; Massabò, Dario; Prati, Paolo

    2018-03-01

    Receptor Models are tools widely adopted in source apportionment studies. We describe here an experiment in which we integrated two different approaches, i.e. Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) and Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) to apportion a set of PM10 (i.e. Particulate Matter with aerodynamic diameter lower than 10 μm) concentration values. The study was performed in the city of Genoa (Italy): a sampling campaign was carried out collecting daily PM10 samples for about two months in an urban background site. PM10 was collected on Quartz fiber filters by a low-volume sampler. A quite complete speciation of PM samples was obtained via Energy Dispersive-X Ray Fluorescence (ED-XRF, for elements), Ionic Chromatography (IC, for major ions and levoglucosan), thermo-optical Analysis (TOT, for organic and elemental carbon). The chemical analyses provided the input database for source apportionment by both PMF and CMB. Source profiles were directly calculated from the input data by PMF while in the CMB runs they were first calculated by averaging the profiles of similar sources collected in the European database SPECIEUROPE. Differences between the two receptor models emerged in particular with PM10 sources linked to very local processes. For this reason, PMF source profiles were adopted in refined CMB runs thus testing a new hybrid approach. Finally, PMF and the "tuned" CMB showed a better agreement even if some discrepancies could not completely been resolved. In this work, we compared the results coming from the last available PMF and CMB versions applied on a set of PM10 samples. Input profiles used in CMB analysis were obtained by averaging the profiles of the new European SPECIEUROPE database. The main differences between PMF and CMB results were linked to very local processes: we obtained the best solution by integrating the two different approaches with the implementation of some output PMF profiles to CMB runs.

  7. Solar Car, Solar Boat: Model Classroom Projects. Seattle Tech Prep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seattle Community Coll. District, Washington.

    This booklet shows how teachers at Ingraham High School and Madison Middle School in Seattle (Washington) challenged their students to tackle demanding technical projects. It also shows how well the students responded to that challenge. The booklet begins with the background of the project, the framework for which would be a university-sponsored…

  8. RTMOD: Real-Time MODel evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graziani, G; Galmarini, S.; Mikkelsen, T.

    2000-01-01

    The 1998 - 1999 RTMOD project is a system based on an automated statistical evaluation for the inter-comparison of real-time forecasts produced by long-range atmospheric dispersion models for national nuclear emergency predictions of cross-boundary consequences. The background of RTMOD was the 1994 ETEX project that involved about 50 models run in several Institutes around the world to simulate two real tracer releases involving a large part of the European territory. In the preliminary phase of ETEX, three dry runs (i.e. simulations in real-time of fictitious releases) were carried out. At that time, the World Wide Web was not available to all the exercise participants, and plume predictions were therefore submitted to JRC-Ispra by fax and regular mail for subsequent processing. The rapid development of the World Wide Web in the second half of the nineties, together with the experience gained during the ETEX exercises suggested the development of this project. RTMOD featured a web-based user-friendly interface for data submission and an interactive program module for displaying, intercomparison and analysis of the forecasts. RTMOD has focussed on model intercomparison of concentration predictions at the nodes of a regular grid with 0.5 degrees of resolution both in latitude and in longitude, the domain grid extending from 5W to 40E and 40N to 65N. Hypothetical releases were notified around the world to the 28 model forecasters via the web on a one-day warning in advance. They then accessed the RTMOD web page for detailed information on the actual release, and as soon as possible they then uploaded their predictions to the RTMOD server and could soon after start their inter-comparison analysis with other modelers. When additional forecast data arrived, already existing statistical results would be recalculated to include the influence by all available predictions. The new web-based RTMOD concept has proven useful as a practical decision-making tool for realtime

  9. Model Diagnostics for the Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    In 2014, eight Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, four academic institutions, one company, and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research combined forces in a project called Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) with the goal to speed Earth system model development for climate and energy. Over the planned 10-year span, the project will conduct simulations and modeling on DOE's most powerful high-performance computing systems at Oak Ridge, Argonne, and Lawrence Berkeley Leadership Compute Facilities. A key component of the ACME project is the development of an interactive test bed for the advanced Earth system model. Its execution infrastructure will accelerate model development and testing cycles. The ACME Workflow Group is leading the efforts to automate labor-intensive tasks, provide intelligent support for complex tasks and reduce duplication of effort through collaboration support. As part of this new workflow environment, we have created a diagnostic, metric, and intercomparison Python framework, called UVCMetrics, to aid in the testing-to-production execution of the ACME model. The framework exploits similarities among different diagnostics to compactly support diagnosis of new models. It presently focuses on atmosphere and land but is designed to support ocean and sea ice model components as well. This framework is built on top of the existing open-source software framework known as the Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT). Because of its flexible framework design, scientists and modelers now can generate thousands of possible diagnostic outputs. These diagnostics can compare model runs, compare model vs. observation, or simply verify a model is physically realistic. Additional diagnostics are easily integrated into the framework, and our users have already added several. Diagnostics can be generated, viewed, and manipulated from the UV-CDAT graphical user interface, Python command line scripts and programs

  10. Isotopic composition of pore water in the Tournemire argilites (Aveyron, France): inter-comparison study of analytical methods and relations with petrophysical parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altinier, M.V.

    2006-06-01

    Stable isotope profiles of pore water in argillaceous rocks are used to characterize fluid migration through these rocks. However, the very low water contents, less than 5% by wet weight, and the small pore sizes (<10 nm) make difficult the access to pore water. In order to assess the representativeness of stable isotopes data in pore water from Tournemire shale (IRSN experimental facility), we made a comparative study by using vacuum distillation at 50 deg. C and 150 deg. C, diffusion in liquid phase and diffusive exchange in vapour phase, together with a study of petrophysical and mineralogical properties of the rock. The results show a good agreement between the water contents determined by heating and vacuum distillation at 150 deg. C and by equilibration techniques. On the other hand, vacuum distillation at 50 deg. C allows to extract less than 90% of the extractable water by heating at 150 deg. C; leading to a depletion in heavy isotopes of extracted water, which can be corrected by using a Rayleigh-type model. Finally, we studied a perpendicular profile to a fracture in order to determine the origin of heavy isotope enrichment of pore water that was observed, in previous works, in the vicinity of fractures (less than one meter). It seems that water content, which increases near the fracture, associated with a more important proportion of bigger pores (φ ∼ 10 - 180 nm), would be at the origin of the isotopic anomalies determined by vacuum distillation at 50 deg. C. Preponderance of bigger pores near the fractures would facilitate mobilization of pore water and its extraction by vacuum distillation at 50 deg. C, reducing the effects of incomplete distillation. (author)

  11. Housing Value Projection Model Related to Educational Planning: The Feasibility of a New Methodology. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helbock, Richard W.; Marker, Gordon

    This study concerns the feasibility of a Markov chain model for projecting housing values and racial mixes. Such projections could be used in planning the layout of school districts to achieve desired levels of socioeconomic heterogeneity. Based upon the concepts and assumptions underlying a Markov chain model, it is concluded that such a model is…

  12. Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, Kevin J.; Meyer, Joe; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; DeSchamphelaere, Karl; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Steve; Mebane, Christopher A.; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C.; Santore, Robert C.; Tipping, Edward

    2015-01-01

    As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

  13. Evaluating the performance of commonly used gas analysers for methane eddy covariance flux measurements: the InGOS inter-comparison field experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltola, O.; Hensen, A.; Helfter, C.; Belelli Marchesini, L.; Bosveld, F. C.; van den Bulk, W. C. M.; Elbers, J. A.; Haapanala, S.; Holst, J.; Laurila, T.; Lindroth, A.; Nemitz, E.; Röckmann, T.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Mammarella, I.

    2014-06-01

    The performance of eight fast-response methane (CH4) gas analysers suitable for eddy covariance flux measurements were tested at a grassland site near the Cabauw tall tower (Netherlands) during June 2012. The instruments were positioned close to each other in order to minimise the effect of varying turbulent conditions. The moderate CH4 fluxes observed at the location, of the order of 25 nmol m-2 s-1, provided a suitable signal for testing the instruments' performance. Generally, all analysers tested were able to quantify the concentration fluctuations at the frequency range relevant for turbulent exchange and were able to deliver high-quality data. The tested cavity ringdown spectrometer (CRDS) instruments from Picarro, models G2311-f and G1301-f, were superior to other CH4 analysers with respect to instrumental noise. As an open-path instrument susceptible to the effects of rain, the LI-COR LI-7700 achieved lower data coverage and also required larger density corrections; however, the system is especially useful for remote sites that are restricted in power availability. In this study the open-path LI-7700 results were compromised due to a data acquisition problem in our data-logging setup. Some of the older closed-path analysers tested do not measure H2O concentrations alongside CH4 (i.e. FMA1 and DLT-100 by Los Gatos Research) and this complicates data processing since the required corrections for dilution and spectroscopic interactions have to be based on external information. To overcome this issue, we used H2O mole fractions measured by other gas analysers, adjusted them with different methods and then applied them to correct the CH4 fluxes. Following this procedure we estimated a bias of the order of 0.1 g (CH4) m-2 (8% of the measured mean flux) in the processed and corrected CH4 fluxes on a monthly scale due to missing H2O concentration measurements. Finally, cumulative CH4 fluxes over 14 days from three closed-path gas analysers, G2311-f (Picarro Inc

  14. Chemistry and Climate in Asia - An Earth System Modeling Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Massie, S. T.; Pfister, G.; Romero Lankao, P.; Lamarque, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. We are developing an integrated inter-disciplinary program to focus on Asia, its climate, air quality, and impact on humans that will include connections with hydrology, ecosystems, extreme weather events, and human health. The primary goal of this project is to create a team to identify key scientific questions and establish networks of specialists to create a plan for future studies to address these questions. A second goal is to establish research facilities and a framework for investigating chemistry and climate over Asia. These facilities include producing high resolution Earth System Model simulations that have been evaluated with meteorological and chemical measurements, producing high-resolution emission inventories, analyzing satellite data, and analyzing the vulnerability of humans to air quality and extreme natural events. In this presentation we will describe in more detail these activities and discuss a future workshop on the impact of chemistry in climate on air quality and human health.

  15. Semi-structured data extraction and modelling: the WIA Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Mosca

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Over the last decades, the amount of data of all kinds available electronically has increased dramatically. Data are accessible through a range of interfaces including Web browsers, database query languages, application-specific interfaces, built on top of a number of different data exchange formats. All these data span from un-structured to highly structured data. Very often, some of them have structure even if the structure is implicit, and not as rigid or regular as that found in standard database systems. Spreadsheet documents are prototypical in this respect. Spreadsheets are the lightweight technology able to supply companies with easy to build business management and business intelligence applications, and business people largely adopt spreadsheets as smart vehicles for data files generation and sharing. Actually, the more spreadsheets grow in complexity (e.g., their use in product development plans and quoting, the more their arrangement, maintenance, and analysis appear as a knowledge-driven activity. The algorithmic approach to the problem of automatic data structure extraction from spreadsheet documents (i.e., grid-structured and free topological-related data emerges from the WIA project: Worksheets Intelligent Analyser. The WIA-algorithm shows how to provide a description of spreadsheet contents in terms of higher level of abstractions or conceptualisations. In particular, the WIA-algorithm target is about the extraction of i the calculus work-flow implemented in the spreadsheets formulas and ii the logical role played by the data which take part into the calculus. The aim of the resulting conceptualisations is to provide spreadsheets with abstract representations useful for further model refinements and optimizations through evolutionary algorithms computations.

  16. Integrating Economic Models with Biophysical Models in the Willamette Water 2100 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, W. K.; Plantinga, A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper highlights the human system modeling components for Willamette Water 2100, a comprehensive, highly integrated study of hydrological, ecological, and human factors affecting water scarcity in the Willamette River Basin (WRB). The project is developing a spatiotemporal simulation model to predict future trajectories of water scarcity, and to evaluate mitigation policies. Economic models of land use and water use are the main human system models in WW2100. Water scarcity depends on both supply and demand for water, and varies greatly across time and space (Jaeger et al., 2013). Thus, the locations of human water use can have enormous influence on where and when water is used, and hence where water scarcity may arise. Modeling the locations of human uses of water (e.g., urban versus agricultural) as well as human values and choices, are the principal quantitative ways that social science can contribute to research of this kind. Our models are empirically-based models of human resource allocation. Each model reflects private behavior (choices by households, farms, firms), institutions (property rights, laws, markets, regulations), public infrastructure (dams, canals, highways), and also 'external drivers' that influence the local economy (migration, population growth, national markets and policies). This paper describes the main model components, emphasizing similarities between human and biophysical components of the overall project, and the model's linkages and feedbacks relevant to our predictions of changes in water scarcity between now and 2100. Results presented include new insights from individual model components as well as available results from the integrated system model. Issues include water scarcity and water quality (temperature) for out-of-stream and instream uses, the impact of urban expansion on water use and potential flood damage. Changes in timing and variability of spring discharge with climate change, as well as changes in human uses of

  17. A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman

    2015-12-01

    The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

  18. Experience of Hungarian model project: 'Strengthening training for operational safety at Paks NPP'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, I.

    1998-01-01

    Training of Operational Safety at Paks NPP is described including all the features of the project including namely: description of Paks NPP, its properties and performances; reasons for establishing Hungarian Model Project, its main goals, mentioning Hungarian and IAEA experts involved in the Project, its organization, operation, budget, current status together with its short term and long term impact

  19. HB-Line Special Nuclear Material Campaigns: Model-Based Project Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CHANG, ROBERT

    2004-01-01

    This study is to show how a model was used to enable management to better estimate production capabilities to ensure contract milestones/commitments are met, to cope with fast changing project baselines and project missions, to ensure the project will meet the negotiated throughput, and to eliminate unnecessary but costly design changes

  20. MODEL OF INTEGRATED VALUE OF PROJECTS IN THE FIELD OF ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Наталія Ігорівна БОРИСОВА

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Development of alternative energy sources requires the implementation of complex problems, the solution of which is necessary to apply the project approach. The uniqueness of alternative energy projects (AEP necessitates individual approach to evaluating the effectiveness of each. The paper contains the results of the project management features's analysis in the field of alternative energy, determining the values and developing of the value management integrated conceptual model of AEP. In assessing the effectiveness of AEP considered the socio-economic and commercial aspects. Value management integrated conceptual model of AEP was obtained by combining the classical model of the project management goals with the project values model "Five "E" and two "A". The classical model of the project management goals have been complemented with risk parameters.

  1. Cost estimate modeling of transportation management plans for highway projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Highway rehabilitation and reconstruction projects frequently cause road congestion and increase safety concerns while limiting access for road users. State Transportation Agencies (STAs) are challenged to find safer and more efficient ways to renew ...

  2. Defining and implementing a model for pharmacy resident research projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dick TB

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To describe a standard approach to provide a support structure for pharmacy resident research that emphasizes self-identification of a residency research project. Methods: A subcommittee of the residency advisory committee was formed at our institution. The committee was initially comprised of 2 clinical pharmacy specialists, 1 drug information pharmacist, and 2 pharmacy administrators. The committee developed research guidelines that are distributed to residents prior to the residency start that detail the research process, important deadlines, and available resources. Instructions for institutional review board (IRB training and deadlines for various assignments and presentations throughout the residency year are clearly defined. Residents conceive their own research project and emphasis is placed on completing assignments early in the residency year. Results: In the 4 years this research process has been in place, 15 of 16 (94% residents successfully identified their own research question. All 15 residents submitted a complete research protocol to the IRB by the August deadline. Four residents have presented the results of their research at multi-disciplinary national professional meetings and 1 has published a manuscript. Feedback from outgoing residents has been positive overall and their perceptions of their research projects and the process are positive. Conclusion: Pharmacy residents selecting their own research projects for their residency year is a feasible alternative to assigning or providing lists of research projects from which to select a project.

  3. A New Bi-Directional Projection Model Based on Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Variable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huidong Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available To solve the multi-attribute decision making (MADM problems with Pythagorean uncertain linguistic variable, an extended bi-directional projection method is proposed. First, we utilize the linguistic scale function to convert uncertain linguistic variable and provide a new projection model, subsequently. Then, to depict the bi-directional projection method, the formative vectors of alternatives and ideal alternatives are defined. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with projection model is conducted to show the superiority of bi-directional projection method. Finally, an example of graduate’s job option is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

  4. COGNITIVE MODELING AS A METHOD OF QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF IT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Інна Ігорівна ОНИЩЕНКО

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The example project implementing automated CRM-system demonstrated the possibility and features of cognitive modeling in the qualitative analysis of project risks to determine their additional features. Proposed construction of cognitive models of project risks in information technology within the qualitative risk analysis, additional assessments as a method of ranking risk to characterize the relationship between them. The proposed cognitive model reflecting the relationship between the risk of IT project to assess the negative and the positive impact of certain risks for the remaining risks of project implementation of the automated CRM-system. The ability to influence the risk of a fact of other project risks can increase the priority of risk with low impact on results due to its relationship with other project risks.

  5. A mathematical model for crashing projects by considering time, cost, quality and risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Mahmoudi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Employers are looking for reducing execution time and maintaining the quality of the projects that are the main objective of the projects. In this article, we focus on crashing projects by con-sidering different factors such as cost, time, quality and risk. For the proposed integer linear model, cost of conformance and cost of non-conformance are considered as parts of the costs of quality of deliverables in projects. The cost of conformance consists of the costs of training the project team, inspection and test of deliverables. The cost of non-conformance also includes costs of rework and scrap. Project risk management is one of the important aspects of the pro-jects. The present study also considers the impact of risks, which is highly applicable in projects with a high level of uncertainty. Results are presented using integer programming approach with the aim of minimizing the costs of the project.

  6. Inter comparison of two commercially available SODARS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans; Antoniou, I.

    2002-01-01

    In the present work two SODARs of the phased array type are compared indirectly using the top anemometer readings from the Risoe 125m instrumented meteorology mast. The two SODARs are the AeroVironment 4000 and the Metek DSDPA.90-24.......In the present work two SODARs of the phased array type are compared indirectly using the top anemometer readings from the Risoe 125m instrumented meteorology mast. The two SODARs are the AeroVironment 4000 and the Metek DSDPA.90-24....

  7. Technological Innovation Projects: Proposal For an Integrative Model Between Project Management and Knowledge Management in a Customer-Supplier Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edval da Silva Tavares

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In face of strong competition, companies in Brazil have increased their financial investments in automation, offering new products and services and reducing operating costs. These companies are focusing their efforts on core competencies and, therefore, they often lack the internal expertise to implement new projects, especially those that bring technological innovation. For this reason, we use the processes of outsourcing or subcontracting to help implement such projects. The unit of analysis in this study is the project and the object of the study to analyze the process of knowledge transfer from a provider to a customer during the duration of the project, which involves new technologies. The main motivation of this work is to address the acquisition and retention of new knowledge related to projects designed for business customers. We have developed a study of three cases of multiple financial firms that buy new technologies and two suppliers of information technology. As a practical result, a management model of knowledge transfer and retention of knowledge in client companies is proposed and incorporated into project management.

  8. Project desk evaluation of a model project CPR/5/009 industrial scale irradiation of rice and other foodstuffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-11-01

    The project CPR/5/009 was approved in 1993 as a model project. The project objective was to build an industrial food irradiation facility for high quality rice and other foodstuffs, with a processing capacity of 5000-9000 tonnes per year. This capacity is large compared to many other facilities of the same type elsewhere. The success of the project waste to be measured against the full utilization of the facility with an acceptable availability factor. Disbursements on Agency inputs up to the end of June 1996 were $294,716 and consisted of one 100 kCi Co-60 source, quality control equipment, bag heat sealers, one expert mission and 13.5 months of training abroad. The current budget is $323,870, following two programme changes. The total cost of the project was estimated at $1,331,300 with the Chinese Government providing the balance. The major conclusions of this evaluation are as follows: Initially, the Agency overestimated the project and business management experience of the counterpart, and consequently underestimated the extent of support required. Providing support to counterparts in facing the key challenges of project management and business operation must be considered by the Agency in future projects of this type. The counterpart institution is also encouraged to emphasize these management issues in order to maximize sustainable and cost-effective utilization of such facilities. A new operational plan has been prepared by the counterpart for 1996 through 1998 which identifies seven customers requiring treatment of a total of 1000 tonnes per year of cereal grains and 1500 tonnes per year of other foodstuffs. This plan reflects a change in overall emphasis from supporting food supply security to ensuring the safety of foodstuffs. It is not clear whether this plan will support operation of the facility at full capacity. The team in place to operate the facility also needs further strengthening. (author). Figs, tabs

  9. Funding Medical Research Projects: Taking into Account Referees' Severity and Consistency through Many-Faceted Rasch Modeling of Projects' Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesio, Luigi; Simone, Anna; Grzeda, Mariuzs T; Ponzio, Michela; Dati, Gabriele; Zaratin, Paola; Perucca, Laura; Battaglia, Mario A

    2015-01-01

    The funding policy of research projects often relies on scores assigned by a panel of experts (referees). The non-linear nature of raw scores and the severity and inconsistency of individual raters may generate unfair numeric project rankings. Rasch measurement (many-facets version, MFRM) provides a valid alternative to scoring. MFRM was applied to the scores achieved by 75 research projects on multiple sclerosis sent in response to a previous annual call by FISM-Italian Foundation for Multiple Sclerosis. This allowed to simulate, a posteriori, the impact of MFRM on the funding scenario. The applications were each scored by 2 to 4 independent referees (total = 131) on a 10-item, 0-3 rating scale called FISM-ProQual-P. The rotation plan assured "connection" of all pairs of projects through at least 1 shared referee.The questionnaire fulfilled satisfactorily the stringent criteria of Rasch measurement for psychometric quality (unidimensionality, reliability and data-model fit). Arbitrarily, 2 acceptability thresholds were set at a raw score of 21/30 and at the equivalent Rasch measure of 61.5/100, respectively. When the cut-off was switched from score to measure 8 out of 18 acceptable projects had to be rejected, while 15 rejected projects became eligible for funding. Some referees, of various severity, were grossly inconsistent (z-std fit indexes less than -1.9 or greater than 1.9). The FISM-ProQual-P questionnaire seems a valid and reliable scale. MFRM may help the decision-making process for allocating funds to MS research projects but also in other fields. In repeated assessment exercises it can help the selection of reliable referees. Their severity can be steadily calibrated, thus obviating the need to connect them with other referees assessing the same projects.

  10. Gulf of Mexico dissolved oxygen model (GoMDOM) research and quality assurance project plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    An integrated high resolution mathematical modeling framework is being developed that will link hydrodynamic, atmospheric, and water quality models for the northern Gulf of Mexico. This Research and Quality Assurance Project Plan primarily focuses on the deterministic Gulf of Me...

  11. Demonstrating sustainable energy: A review-based model of sustainable energy demonstration projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bossink, Bart

    2017-01-01

    This article develops a model of sustainable energy demonstration projects, based on a review of 229 scientific publications on demonstrations in renewable and sustainable energy. The model addresses the basic organizational characteristics (aim, cooperative form, and physical location) and learning

  12. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    OpenAIRE

    G. van Zyl; P. Venier

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices i...

  13. Understanding and managing three-dimensional/four-dimensional model implementations at the project team level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Timo; Levitt, R.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces an extant, theoretical, social-psychological model that explains the sense-making processes of project managers confronted with a new technology to improve our understanding of project-based innovation processes. The model represents the interlinked processes through which

  14. A Comparative Study of Projection Models on China's Food Economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang XiaoYong, Xiaoyong

    2004-01-01

    During the last two decades, China's food supply and demand has been a hot topic for both politicians and academics given China's rapid economic development and its sheer market size. Accordingly, researchers are trying to project the future development of China's food economy. This article reviews

  15. A comparative study of projection models on China's food economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang XiaoYong, Xiaoyong

    2003-01-01

    During the last two decades, China's food supply and demand has been a hot topic for both politicians and academics given China's rapid economic development and its sheer market size. Accordingly, researchers are trying to project the future development of China's food economy. This article reviews

  16. Model for setting priority construction project objectives aligned with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    participants, including contractors, quantity surveyors, project managers, architects, and ..... (2004: 1) report that the global construction industry is plagued with ..... 1.2. Construction consultant/Developer. 2. 1.2. Engineering. 2. 1.2. Logistics. 2. 1.2 ...... supplychain/PPPFA%20-%20media.pdf> [Accessed: 2 June 2011].

  17. How Do Artifact Models Help Direct SPI Projects?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuhrmann, Marco; Richardson, Ita

    2015-01-01

    To overcome shortcomings associated with software process improvement (SPI), we previously recommended that process engineers focus on the artifacts to be developed in SPI projects. These artifacts should define desired outcomes, rather than specific methods. During this prior research, we develo...

  18. Bidding model for sustainable projects using the traditional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The traditional procurement method (TPM) is still widely used in construction because of some advantages it offers over other methods. Contractor selection in the traditional procurement method can no longer be overlooked- being a vital process that influences project success in terms of cost, quality, function, and ...

  19. Projection of Anthropometric Correlation for Virtual Population Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, John; Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge; Rasmussen, Kasper Pihl

    2018-01-01

    , and therefore the correlations between parameters, are not accessible. This problem is solved by projecting correlation from a data set for which raw data are provided. The method is tested and validated by generation of pseudo females from males in the ANSUR anthropometric dataset. Results show...

  20. Visualizing project management: models and frameworks for mastering complex systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Forsberg, Kevin; Mooz, Hal; Cotterman, Howard

    2005-01-01

    ...- and beyond that on parameters such as return on investment, market acceptance, or sustainability. Anyone who has lived with the space program, or any other hightech industrial product development, can immediately appreciate this acclaimed book. It addresses and "visualizes" the multidimensional interactions of project management and systems engineering i...

  1. Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

    2017-08-01

    As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

  2. THE MODELLING OF ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES OF MANAGEMENT BY REALIZING INVESTMENT CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олег Александрович КУЧМА

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors consider the modeling of organizational structures by virtue of interaction between the basic participants by realizing of investment construction projects. This process is directed at the complex analysis of a problem of quality management by creating of building goods taking into account modern project management tendencies. The topicality of problem is obvious as by realizing of investment construction projects there is a liberal share of uncompleted projects, and in the completed projects actual values considerably exceed budgeted capital expenditures. The introduced model allows managing the project per quality system in all phases of the investment construction project‘s life cycle. It promotes refinement of building goods, improves the rate of successfully completed projects with actual values near budgeted.

  3. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Sustainability Risk Evaluation of PPP Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libiao Bai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the sustainability risk level of public–private partnership (PPP projects can reduce project risk incidents and achieve the sustainable development of the organization. However, the existing studies about PPP projects risk management mainly focus on exploring the impact of financial and revenue risks but ignore the sustainability risks, causing the concept of “sustainability” to be missing while evaluating the risk level of PPP projects. To evaluate the sustainability risk level and achieve the most important objective of providing a reference for the public and private sectors when making decisions on PPP project management, this paper constructs a factor system of sustainability risk of PPP projects based on an extensive literature review and develops a mathematical model based on the methods of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM and failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. In addition, this paper conducts computational experiment based on a questionnaire survey to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of this proposed model. The results suggest that this model is reasonable for evaluating the sustainability risk level of PPP projects. To our knowledge, this paper is the first study to evaluate the sustainability risk of PPP projects, which would not only enrich the theories of project risk management, but also serve as a reference for the public and private sectors for the sustainable planning and development. Keywords: sustainability risk eva

  4. Benchmarking of wind farm scale wake models in the EERA - DTOC project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Barthelmie, R.J.

    2013-01-01

    -flow to combine wind farm (micro) and cluster (meso) scale wake models. For this purpose, a benchmark campaign is organized on the existing wind farm wake models available within the project, in order to identify which model would be the most appropriate for this coupling. A number of standardized wake cases......Designing offshore wind farms next to existing or planned wind farm clusters has recently become a common practice in the North Sea. These types of projects face unprecedented challenges in term of wind energy siting. The currently ongoing European project FP7 EERA - DTOC (Design Tool for Offshore...... wind farm Clusters) is aiming at providing a new type of model work-flow to address this issue. The wake modeling part of the EERA - DTOC project is to improve the fundamental understanding of wind turbine wakes and modeling. One of these challenges is to create a new kind of wake modeling work...

  5. Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

    1996-11-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall

  6. Modelling income distribution impacts of water sector projects in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, C S; Jones, S

    1991-09-01

    Dynamic analysis was conducted to assess the long-term impacts of water sector projects on agricultural income distribution, and sensitivity analysis was conducted to check the robustness of the 5 assumptions in this study of income distribution and water sector projects in Bangladesh. 7 transitions are analyzed for mutually exclusive irrigation and flooding projects: Nonirrigation to 1) LLP irrigation, 2) STW irrigation, 3) DTW irrigation, 4) major gravity irrigation, and manually operated shallow tubewell irrigation (MOSTI) and Flood Control Projects (FCD) of 6) medium flooded to shallow flooded, and 7) deeply flooded to shallow flooded. 5 analytical stages are involved: 1) farm budgets are derived with and without project cropping patterns for each transition. 2) Estimates are generated for value added/hectare from each transition. 3) Assumptions are made about the number of social classes, distribution of land ownership between classes, extent of tenancy for each social class, term of tenancy contracts, and extent of hiring of labor for each social class. 4) Annual value added/hectare is distributed among social classes. 5) Using Gini coefficients and simple ratios, the distribution of income between classes is estimated for with and without transition. Assumption I is that there are 4 social classes defined by land acreage: large farmers (5 acres), medium farmers (1.5-5.0), small farmers, (.01-1.49), and landless. Assumption II is that land distribution follows the 1978 Land Occupancy Survey (LOS). Biases, if any, are indicated. Assumption III is that large farmers sharecrop out 15% of land to small farmers. Assumption IV is that landlords provide nonirrigated crop land and take 50% of the crop, and, under irrigation, provide 50% of the fertilizer, pesticide, and irrigation costs and take 50% of the crop. Assumption V is that hired and family labor is assumed to be 40% for small farmers, 60% for medium farmers, and 80% for large farmers. It is understood that

  7. Data-driven modelling of structured populations a practical guide to the integral projection model

    CERN Document Server

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2016-01-01

    This book is a “How To” guide for modeling population dynamics using Integral Projection Models (IPM) starting from observational data. It is written by a leading research team in this area and includes code in the R language (in the text and online) to carry out all computations. The intended audience are ecologists, evolutionary biologists, and mathematical biologists interested in developing data-driven models for animal and plant populations. IPMs may seem hard as they involve integrals. The aim of this book is to demystify IPMs, so they become the model of choice for populations structured by size or other continuously varying traits. The book uses real examples of increasing complexity to show how the life-cycle of the study organism naturally leads to the appropriate statistical analysis, which leads directly to the IPM itself. A wide range of model types and analyses are presented, including model construction, computational methods, and the underlying theory, with the more technical material in B...

  8. EVEGAS Project (European validation exercise of GAS migration model)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manai, T. [Geostock S.A., Rueil-Malmaison (France)

    1995-03-01

    The EVEGAS project aims at the verification and validation of numerical codes suitable for simulating gas flow phenomenon in low permeability porous media. Physical phenomena involved in gas generation and gas flow are numerous, often complex, and may not be very well described. The existing numerical codes cannot represent all the occurring possible phenomena, but allow a good trade-off betwen simplicity and representativity of such phenomena. Two phase flow (Gas and Water) appear to be the most consequential phenomena in gas migration and pressure sizing. The project is organised in three major steps: (1) a simple problem with analytical solutions. (2) A few problems based on laboratory or in-situ experiments. (3) A 3-D repository scenarios involving the following aspects: a repository design; a source of gas; rock characteristics; and fluid characteristics.

  9. Chemval project report on stage 1: verification of speciation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Read, D.; Broyd, T.W.

    1989-01-01

    CHEMVAL is an international geochemical exercise, which aims at applicating and validating predictive computer programmes describing the chemistry of radionuclides in the geosphere. As a component of the CEC project MIRAGE- second phase (on migration of radionuclides in the geosphere), CHEMVAL is carried out in the framework of the third community R and D programme of radioactive waste management and storage. The present report is the first of a series devoted to the verification and validation of aqueous speciation and coupled chemical transport codes. Five cases systems are studied, namely, cement, clay, sandstore, granite and limestone. Overall, good agreement was obtained. Reasons for divergence in results have been explored and recommendations are made at the appropriate stages for enhancement of the thermodynamic data base. A listing of the preliminary CHEMVAL Project Data Base is provided

  10. Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Jesse P.

    1989-01-01

    The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

  11. Geopolitical model of investment power station construction project implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malafeyev, Oleg; Farvazov, Konstantin; Zenovich, Olga; Zaitseva, Irina; Kostyukov, Konstantin; Svechinskaya, Tatiana

    2018-04-01

    Two geopolitical actors implement a geopolitical project that involves transportaion and storage of some commodities. They interact with each other through a transport network. The network consists of several interconnected vertices. Some of the vetrices are trading hubs, storage spaces, production hubs and goods buyers. Actors wish to satify the demand of buyers and recieve the highest possible profit subject to compromise solution principle. A numerical example is given.

  12. Concept and Model - Kiwi project deliverable D2.8

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter

    2009-01-01

    The Concept and Model for personalisation serves several goals: •    Introducing relevant concepts of personalisation, user and group modelling, statistical model, reasoning and reason maintenance for personalisation. •    Reviewing the related work in personalisation and understanding how......, widget arrangement based on user activity and reasoning maintenance for generation of recommendations....

  13. Testing the HTA core model: experiences from two pilot projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pasternack, Iris; Anttila, Heidi; Mäkelä, Marjukka

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to analyze and describe process and outcomes of two pilot assessments based on the HTA Core Model, discuss the applicability of the model, and explore areas of development. METHODS: Data were gathered from HTA Core Model and pilot Core HTA documents, their va...

  14. Microcomputer model for an analysis of the financial feasibility of a mining project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciruelos, J.; Duchene, M.

    1983-01-01

    The model presented permits a simulation of the predicted profitability of a mining project at the stage of feasibility studies by making use of a simple individual computer, the Apple II. The model presented can be used to treat the following three areas: definition of the mode of financing the project and calculation of the financial flows which make it possible to evaluate the profitability of this project; analysis of sensitivity, which makes it possible to determine the most critical variables for the future of the project; analysis of the risk [fr

  15. Project Photofly: New 3d Modeling Online Web Service (case Studies and Assessments)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abate, D.; Furini, G.; Migliori, S.; Pierattini, S.

    2011-09-01

    During summer 2010, Autodesk has released a still ongoing project called Project Photofly, freely downloadable from AutodeskLab web site until August 1 2011. Project Photofly based on computer-vision and photogrammetric principles, exploiting the power of cloud computing, is a web service able to convert collections of photographs into 3D models. Aim of our research was to evaluate the Project Photofly, through different case studies, for 3D modeling of cultural heritage monuments and objects, mostly to identify for which goals and objects it is suitable. The automatic approach will be mainly analyzed.

  16. Innovation Leadership in Innovation Projects: The Application of the Reflective Practitioner Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oeij, P.R.A.

    2016-01-01

    In 1982 Donald Schön wrote the Reflective Practitioner which implicitly but never explicitly contains a model of steps what it is to act as a reflective practitioner in real life. In this paper we apply that model and try to make this latent (tacit) model into a manifest (explicit) model. Project

  17. Results of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pattyn

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models that are able to robustly simulate grounding line migration. We present results of an intercomparison exercise for marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no effects of lateral buttressing. Unique steady state grounding line positions exist for ice sheets on a downward sloping bed, while hysteresis occurs across an overdeepened bed, and stable steady state grounding line positions only occur on the downward-sloping sections. Models based on the shallow ice approximation, which does not resolve extensional stresses, do not reproduce the approximate analytical results unless appropriate parameterizations for ice flux are imposed at the grounding line. For extensional-stress resolving "shelfy stream" models, differences between model results were mainly due to the choice of spatial discretization. Moving grid methods were found to be the most accurate at capturing grounding line evolution, since they track the grounding line explicitly. Adaptive mesh refinement can further improve accuracy, including fixed grid models that generally perform poorly at coarse resolution. Fixed grid models, with nested grid representations of the grounding line, are able to generate accurate steady state positions, but can be inaccurate over transients. Only one full-Stokes model was included in the intercomparison, and consequently the accuracy of shelfy stream models as approximations of full-Stokes models remains to be determined in detail, especially during transients.

  18. A model for personal life project design on the basis of vocational guidance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isaac Geovanni Mendoza Cedeño

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article is intended to propose a model for developing vocational education personal life projects and its corresponding theoretical foundations. Therefore, the argument is undertaken on the model developed from philosophical views, epistemological, pedagogical, sociological, and psychological axiological, and a model is provided as a basis for the development of vocational education strategy for personal life project development contributing effectively to the development of responsible autonomy and high school students.

  19. Decision Model on Financing a Project Using Knowledge about Risk Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Ioana POPOVICI; Emil SCARLAT; Francesco RIZZO

    2011-01-01

    The research presents an alternative to the classical method of measuring financial risk in funding a project. The goal of the model described in the paper implies identifying "risky areas" within the financial balance of the project. The model analysis the financial risk behavior studied along four scenarios by varying only the cost of financing source used according to the specific type of funding. The model introduces the time factor into the analysis of financial risk due to the specific ...

  20. MODELLING OF FINANCIAL EFFECTIVENESS AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS AND PUBLIC PROCUREMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov Aleksey Alekseevich

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The article substantiates the necessity of extension and development of tools for methodological evaluation of effectiveness of public-private partnership (PPP projects both individually and in comparison of effectiveness of various mechanisms of projects realization on the example of traditional public procurement. The author proposed an original technique of modelling cash flows of private and public partners when realizing the projects based on PPP and on public procurement. The model enables us promptly and with sufficient accuracy to reveal comparative advantages of project forms of PPP and public procurement, and also assess financial effectiveness of the PPP projects for each partner. The modelling is relatively straightforward and reliable. The model also enables us to evaluate public partner's expenses for availability, find the terms and thresholds for interest rates of financing attracted by the partners and for risk probabilities to ensure comparative advantage of PPP project. Proposed criteria of effectiveness are compared with methodological recommendations provided by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Subject: public and private organizations, financial institutions, development institutions and their theoretical and practical techniques for effectiveness evaluation of public-private partnership (PPP projects. Complexity of effectiveness evaluation and the lack of unified and accepted methodology are among the factors that limit the development of PPP in the Russian Federation nowadays. Research objectives: development of methodological methods for assessing financial efficiency of PPP projects by creating and justifying application of new principles and methods of modelling, and also criteria for effectiveness of PPP projects both individually and in comparison with the public procurement. Materials and methods: open database of ongoing PPP projects in the Russian Federation and abroad was used. The

  1. Analysis of CPN-1 sigma models via projective structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Post, S; Grundland, A M

    2012-01-01

    This paper represents a study of projector solutions to the Euclidean CP N-1 sigma model in two dimensions and their associated surfaces immersed in the su(N) Lie algebra. Any solution for the CP N-1 sigma model defined on the extended complex plane with finite action can be written as a raising operator acting on a holomorphic one. Here the proof is formulated in terms rank-1 projectors so it is explicitly gauge invariant. We apply these results to the analysis of surfaces associated with the CP N-1 models defined using the generalized Weierstrass formula for immersion. We show that the surfaces are conformally parametrized by the Lagrangian density, with finite area equal to the action of the model, and express several other geometrical characteristics of the surface in terms of the physical quantities of the model. Finally, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions that a surface be related to a CP N-1 sigma model

  2. A Model Suggestion to Predict Leverage Ratio for Construction Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Özlem Tüz; Şafak Ebesek

    2013-01-01

    Due to the nature, construction is an industry with high uncertainty and risk. Construction industry carries high leverage ratios. Firms with low equities work in big projects through progress payment system, but in this case, even a small negative in the planned cash flows constitute a major risk for the company.The use of leverage, with a small investment to achieve profit targets large-scale, high-profit, but also brings a high risk with it. Investors may lose all or the portion of th...

  3. THE MODEL OF EXPERT SYSTEM FOR SCIENTIFIC PROJECTS EVALUATION IN HIGHER EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олександр Михайлович ВОЗНИЙ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There have been proposed the model of the expert system for the assessment of research projects in higher educational institutions, based on estimates of probability. It allows to rank alternative projects and scenarios. The model is implemented through the software "Small expert system." The principle of calculating the probability of approval of research projects, which form the basis of the expert system, is based on Bayes' theorem. Expert system calculates the probability of approval of research projects by Ministry of Science and Education on the basis of the responses to questions about the content of the request for the execution of research projects. Questions are formed on the basis of the criteria by which experts of state authorities evaluate scientific research projects.

  4. The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

    2005-01-01

    1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

  5. Model projections for household energy use in India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.; van Vuuren, D.P.; de Vries, B.J.M.; Isaac, M.; van der Sluijs, J.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Balachandra, P.

    2011-01-01

    Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is

  6. Use of mathematical modeling in nuclear measurements projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toubon, H.; Menaa, N.; Mirolo, L.; Ducoux, X.; Khalil, R. A.; Chany, P.; Devita, A.

    2011-01-01

    Mathematical modeling of nuclear measurement systems is not a new concept. The response of the measurement system is described using a pre-defined mathematical model that depends on a set of parameters. These parameters are determined using a limited set of experimental measurement points e.g. efficiency curve, dose rates... etc. The model that agrees with the few experimental points is called an experimentally validated model. Once these models have been validated, we use mathematical interpolation to find the parameters of interest. Sometimes, when measurements are not practical or are impossible extrapolation is implemented but with care. CANBERRA has been extensively using mathematical modeling for the design and calibration of large and sophisticated systems to create and optimize designs that would be prohibitively expensive with only experimental tools. The case studies that will be presented here are primarily performed with MCNP, CANBERRA's MERCURAD/PASCALYS and ISOCS (In Situ Object Counting Software). For benchmarking purposes, both Monte Carlo and ray-tracing based codes are inter-compared to show models consistency and add a degree of reliability to modeling results. (authors)

  7. GASB's New Financial Reporting Model: Implementation Project for School Districts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, David; Glick, Paul

    1999-01-01

    In June 1999, the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) issued its statement on the structure of the basic financial reporting model for state and local governments. Explains the new financial reporting model and reviews the implementation issues that school districts will need to address. (MLF)

  8. Projective Item Response Model for Test-Independent Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ip, Edward Hak-Sing; Chen, Shyh-Huei

    2012-01-01

    The problem of fitting unidimensional item-response models to potentially multidimensional data has been extensively studied. The focus of this article is on response data that contains a major dimension of interest but that may also contain minor nuisance dimensions. Because fitting a unidimensional model to multidimensional data results in…

  9. Eysenck Psychobiological Personality Model: a projected into the future history

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanina Schmidt

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article, particular circumstances, author and ideas that influenced on the elaboration of one of the most solid personality models that Psychology has till nowadays: Eysenck Personality Model, are revised. Its main characteristics are presented, which defined it as a dispositional, dimensional, hierarchic and psychobiological model. The intention of improving dimensions description, explanation, and measurement, took this author to propose changes to his original theory and instrument. Hence, different periods of this model are analyzed. In spite of proliferation of personality theories, Eysenck model has an empirical validity that only a few have. Thus, we argue that in Personality Psychology there is a background available which represents the Paradigm into which we will probably be moving in the next years

  10. Competence development organizations in project management on the basis of genomic model methodologies

    OpenAIRE

    Бушуев, Сергей Дмитриевич; Рогозина, Виктория Борисовна; Ярошенко, Юрий Федерович

    2013-01-01

    The matrix technology for identification of organisational competencies in project management is presented in the article. Matrix elements are the components of organizational competence in the field of project management and project management methodology represented in the structure of the genome. The matrix model of competence in the framework of the adopted methodologies and scanning method for identifying organizational competences formalised. Proposed methods for building effective proj...

  11. Success probability orientated optimization model for resource allocation of the technological innovation multi-project system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weixu Dai; Weiwei Wu; Bo Yu; Yunhao Zhu

    2016-01-01

    A success probability orientated optimization model for resource al ocation of the technological innovation multi-project system is studied. Based on the definition of the technological in-novation multi-project system, the leveling optimization of cost and success probability is set as the objective of resource al ocation. The cost function and the probability function of the optimization model are constructed. Then the objective function of the model is constructed and the solving process is explained. The model is applied to the resource al ocation of an enterprise’s technological innovation multi-project system. The results show that the pro-posed model is more effective in rational resource al ocation, and is more applicable in maximizing the utility of the technological innovation multi-project system.

  12. Reducing failures rate within the project documentation using Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prušková Kristýna

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper´s focus is on differences between traditional modelling in 2D software and modelling within the BIM technology. Research uncovers failures connected to the traditional way of designing and construction of project documentation. There are revealed and shown mismatches within the project documentation. Solution within the Building information modelling Technology is outlined. As a reference, there is used experience with design of specific building in both ways of construction of project documentation: in the way of traditional modelling and in the way when using BIM technology, especially using Level of Development. Output of this paper is pointing to benefits of using advanced technology in building design, thus Building Information Modelling, especially Level of Development, which leads to reducing failures rate within the project documentation.

  13. Management of information in development projects – a proposed integrated model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Bester

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The first section of the article focuses on the need for development in Africa and the specific challenges of development operations. It describes the need for a holistic and integrated information management model as part of the project management body of knowledge aimed at managing the information flow between communities and development project teams. It is argued that information, and access to information, is crucial in development projects and can therefore be seen as a critical success factor in any development project. In the second section of the article, the three information areas of the holistic and integrated information management model are described. In the section thereafter we suggest roles and actions for information managers to facilitate information processes integral to the model. These processes seek to create a developing information community that aligns itself with the development project, and supports and sustains it.

  14. Predicting Defects Using Information Intelligence Process Models in the Software Technology Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvaraj, Manjula Gandhi; Jayabal, Devi Shree; Srinivasan, Thenmozhi; Balasubramanie, Palanisamy

    2015-01-01

    A key differentiator in a competitive market place is customer satisfaction. As per Gartner 2012 report, only 75%-80% of IT projects are successful. Customer satisfaction should be considered as a part of business strategy. The associated project parameters should be proactively managed and the project outcome needs to be predicted by a technical manager. There is lot of focus on the end state and on minimizing defect leakage as much as possible. Focus should be on proactively managing and shifting left in the software life cycle engineering model. Identify the problem upfront in the project cycle and do not wait for lessons to be learnt and take reactive steps. This paper gives the practical applicability of using predictive models and illustrates use of these models in a project to predict system testing defects thus helping to reduce residual defects.

  15. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub

    2013-01-01

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors

  16. The development of stochastic process modeling through risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kwang Ho; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    There are so many different factors to consider when constructing a nuclear power plant successfully from planning to decommissioning. According to PMBOK, all projects have nine domains from a holistic project management perspective. They are equally important to all projects, however, this study focuses mostly on the processes required to manage timely completion of the project and conduct risk management. The overall objective of this study is to let you know what the risk analysis derived from scheduling of NPP project is, and understand how to implement the stochastic process modeling through risk management. Building the Nuclear Power Plant is required a great deal of time and fundamental knowledge related to all engineering. That means that integrated project scheduling management with so many activities is necessary and very important. Simulation techniques for scheduling of NPP project using Open Plan program, Crystal Ball program, and Minitab program can be useful tools for designing optimal schedule planning. Thus far, Open Plan and Monte Carlo programs have been used to calculate the critical path for scheduling network analysis. And also, Minitab program has been applied to monitor the scheduling risk. This approach to stochastic modeling through risk analysis of project activities is very useful for optimizing the schedules of activities using Critical Path Method and managing the scheduling control of NPP project. This study has shown new approach to optimal scheduling of NPP project, however, this does not consider the characteristic of activities according to the NPP site conditions. Hence, this study needs more research considering those factors.

  17. Pengembangan Model Outdoor Learning melalui Project Berbasis Local Wisdom dalam Pembelajaran Fisika

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indah kurnia Putri Damayanti

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1 menghasilkan model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom yang layak digunakan dalam pembelajaran fisika, (2 mengetahui keefektifan penggunaan model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom. Penelitian pengembangan ini menggunakan metode pengembangan R & D (Research dan Development. Pada tahap Development, peneliti mengadopsi model 4D, yaitu Define, Design, Develop, dan Disseminate. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom yang dikembangkan layak digunakan dari segi produk pendukung pembelajaran yang memenuhi kriteria sangat tinggi menurut para ahli, praktis menurut guru dan peserta didik. Lembar observasi yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan reliabel berdasarkan hasil ICC dan tes hasil belajar yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan reliabel berdasarkan hasil Quest. Selain itu, model outdoor learning melalui project berbasis local wisdom lebih efektif digunakan dalam pembelajaran fisika dilihat dari hasil analisis multivariate dan GLMMDs yang memperoleh nilai signifikansi 0,000 dan MD yang tinggi.   AbstractThis research was aimed to: (1 produce outdoor learning via project based suitable local wisdom model used in physics learning, (2 know the effectiveness in using outdoor learning via project based local wisdom model. This developing research used a R & D method (Research and Development. On Development step, the researcher adopted 4D model, they were Define, Design, Develop, dan Dissemination. The results showed that the developed outdoor learning via project based local wisdom model was suitable to be used in terms of learning support product that was in very high category according expert, practical according teacher and students. In addition the observation sheet was in valid criteria and reliabel based on ICC and the learning outcome test was in valid criteria and reliabel based on Quest. Besides, outdoor learning via

  18. Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainali, Kumar P; Warren, Dan L; Dhileepan, Kunjithapatham; McConnachie, Andrew; Strathie, Lorraine; Hassan, Gul; Karki, Debendra; Shrestha, Bharat B; Parmesan, Camille

    2015-12-01

    Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (i) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (ii) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (iii) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species' native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e., into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g., boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post hoc test conducted on a new Parthenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our 'best' model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for parthenium

  19. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    KAUST Repository

    Kravitz, Ben; Robock, Alan; Boucher, Olivier; Schmidt, Hauke; Taylor, Karl E.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Schulz, Michael

    2011-01-01

    To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far

  20. Collaborative Project. Mode and Intermediate Waters in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Dufour, Carolina [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States); Rodgers, Keith B. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2015-12-16

    The focus of this grant was on diagnosing the physical mechanisms controlling upper ocean water mass formation and carbon distribution in Earth System Models (ESMs), with the goal of improving the physics that controls their formation.

  1. Using UML Modeling to Facilitate Three-Tier Architecture Projects in Software Engineering Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Sandeep

    2014-01-01

    This article presents the use of a model-centric approach to facilitate software development projects conforming to the three-tier architecture in undergraduate software engineering courses. Many instructors intend that such projects create software applications for use by real-world customers. While it is important that the first version of these…

  2. Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palit, D.; Malhotra, R.; Kumar, Atul

    2011-01-01

    This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability

  3. Exploring Students' Computational Thinking Skills in Modeling and Simulation Projects: : A Pilot Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grgurina, Natasa; van Veen, Klaas; Barendsen, Erik; Zwaneveld, Bert; Suhre, Cor; Gal-Ezer, Judith; Sentance, Sue; Vahrenhold, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Computational Thinking (CT) is gaining a lot of attention in education. We explored how to discern the occurrences of CT in the projects of 12th grade high school students in the computer science (CS) course. Within the projects, they constructed models and ran simulations of phenomena from other

  4. The Charlotte Action Research Project: A Model for Direct and Mutually Beneficial Community-University Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrell, Elizabeth; Sorensen, Janni; Howarth, Joe

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the evolution of the Charlotte Action Research Project (CHARP), a community-university partnership founded in 2008 at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, and focuses particularly on the program's unique organizational structure. Research findings of a project evaluation suggest that the CHARP model's unique…

  5. Projecting UK mortality using Bayesian generalised additive models

    OpenAIRE

    Hilton, Jason; Dodd, Erengul; Forster, Jonathan; Smith, Peter W.F.

    2018-01-01

    Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to the forecasting of mortality that jointly estimates a Generalised Additive Model (GAM) for mortality for the majority of the age-range and a parametric model for older ages where the data are sparser. The GAM allows smooth components...

  6. Statistical methods for mechanistic model validation: Salt Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggett, D.L.

    1988-07-01

    As part of the Department of Energy's Salt Repository Program, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is studying the emplacement of nuclear waste containers in a salt repository. One objective of the SRP program is to develop an overall waste package component model which adequately describes such phenomena as container corrosion, waste form leaching, spent fuel degradation, etc., which are possible in the salt repository environment. The form of this model will be proposed, based on scientific principles and relevant salt repository conditions with supporting data. The model will be used to predict the future characteristics of the near field environment. This involves several different submodels such as the amount of time it takes a brine solution to contact a canister in the repository, how long it takes a canister to corrode and expose its contents to the brine, the leach rate of the contents of the canister, etc. These submodels are often tested in a laboratory and should be statistically validated (in this context, validate means to demonstrate that the model adequately describes the data) before they can be incorporated into the waste package component model. This report describes statistical methods for validating these models. 13 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  7. [Reconstruction and measurement of a digital dental model using grating projection and reverse engineering].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhenzhen, Wang; Yi, Lu; Jun, Song; Jun, Chen; Qin, Zhou

    2015-02-01

    This work lays the foundation for establishing a digital model database with normal occlusion. A digital dental cast is acquired through grating projection, and model features are measured through reverse engineering. The grating projection system controlled by a computer was projected onto the surface of a normal dental model. Three-dimensional contour data were obtained through multi-angle shooting. A three-dimensional model was constructed, and the model features were analyzed by using reverse engineering. The digital model was compared with the plaster model to determine the accuracy of the measurement system. The structure of three-dimensional reconstruction model was clear. The digital models of two measurements exhibited no significant difference (P > 0.05). When digital and plaster models were measured, we found that the crown length and arch width were not statistically different (P > 0.05), whereas the difference between the crown width and arch length was statistically significant (P model by using the grating projection technique and reverse engineering can be used for dental model measurement in clinic al and scientific research and can provide a scientific method for establishing a digital model database with normal occlusion.

  8. Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the western Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Veliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

    2016-04-01

    The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research due to its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rain forest in carbon cycling. Climate change has also direct hydrological impact, and there have been increasing efforts to understand such dynamics at continental and subregional scales such as the scale of the western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the river. Using extremes value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 years. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100- year return floods). These findings are in agreement with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amid a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rain forest system over the greater Amazonia.

  9. Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2011-05-01

    Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

  10. Do telemonitoring projects of heart failure fit the Chronic Care Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemse, Evi; Adriaenssens, Jef; Dilles, Tinne; Remmen, Roy

    2014-07-01

    This study describes the characteristics of extramural and transmural telemonitoring projects on chronic heart failure in Belgium. It describes to what extent these telemonitoring projects coincide with the Chronic Care Model of Wagner. The Chronic Care Model describes essential components for high-quality health care. Telemonitoring can be used to optimise home care for chronic heart failure. It provides a potential prospective to change the current care organisation. This qualitative study describes seven non-invasive home-care telemonitoring projects in patients with heart failure in Belgium. A qualitative design, including interviews and literature review, was used to describe the correspondence of these home-care telemonitoring projects with the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. The projects were situated in primary and secondary health care. Their primary goal was to reduce the number of readmissions for chronic heart failure. None of these projects succeeded in a final implementation of telemonitoring in home care after the pilot phase. Not all the projects were initiated to accomplish all of the dimensions of the Chronic Care Model. A central role for the patient was sparse. Limited financial resources hampered continuation after the pilot phase. Cooperation and coordination in telemonitoring appears to be major barriers but are, within primary care as well as between the lines of care, important links in follow-up. This discrepancy can be prohibitive for deployment of good chronic care. Chronic Care Model is recommended as basis for future.

  11. PENGEMBANGAN TUGAS AKHIR MELALUI PROJECT BASED LEARNING MODEL UNTUK MENINGKATKAN GENERIC GREEN SKILLS SISWA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Ana

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The development of students’ final project through Project-based Learning (PBLapproach was conducted in the workshop of family resource management (FRM in 7th semester.PBL approach is expected to give contribution to students’ motivation and experience to finish their final assignments of FRM workshop. The objectives of the research are to: (1 develop PBL model for the students’final project; (2 produce learning instruments of PBL such as lesson plans, manual of FRM workshop, and scientific report of FRM workshop. The method of the study was using research and development of Plomp model and quasi experiment for testing the effectiveness of the model. The research subjects were the students from the class of 2009 and 2010 who joined FRM workshop course. The study produced model, lesson plans, and manual of FRM workshop as the outputs. The result showed that project based learning model was effective to improve the students’ generic green skills for project management, collaborative skills, and communicative competence. Keywords: final project, generic green skill, family resource management, Project-Based Learning

  12. Developing a Massively Parallel Forward Projection Radiography Model for Large-Scale Industrial Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauerle, Matthew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-08-01

    This project utilizes Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to compute radiograph simulations for arbitrary objects. The generation of radiographs, also known as the forward projection imaging model, is computationally intensive and not widely utilized. The goal of this research is to develop a massively parallel algorithm that can compute forward projections for objects with a trillion voxels (3D pixels). To achieve this end, the data are divided into blocks that can each t into GPU memory. The forward projected image is also divided into segments to allow for future parallelization and to avoid needless computations.

  13. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Derived Boundary Conditions for Paleoclimate Simulation: the Refined ICE-6G_D (VM5a) Model and the Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peltier, W. R.; Vettoretti, G.; Argus, D. F.

    2017-12-01

    Global models of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process are designed to fit a wide range of geophysical and geomorphological observations that simultaneously constrain the internal viscoelastic structure of Earths interior and the history of grounded ice thickness variations that has occurred over the most recent ice-age cycle of the Late Quaternary interval of time. The most recent refinement of the ICE-NG (VMX) series of such global models from the University of Toronto, ICE-6G_C (VM5a), has recently been slightly modified insofar as its Antarctic component is concerned to produce a "_D" version of the structure. This has been chosen to provide the boundary conditions for the next round of model-data inter-comparisons in the context of the international Paleoclimate Modeling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP). The output of PMIP will contribute to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which is now under way. A highly significant test of the utility of this latest model has recently been performed that is focused upon the Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillation that was the primary source of climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) of the most recent glacial cycle. By introducing the surface boundary conditions for paleotopography and paleobathymetry, land-sea mask and surface albedo into the NCAR CESM1 coupled climate model configured at full one degree by one degree CMIP5 resolution, together with the appropriate trace gas and orbital insolation forcing, we show that the millennium timescale Dansgard-Oeschger oscillation naturally develops following spin- up of the model into the glacial state.

  14. Transport fuel demand responses to fuel price and income projections : Comparison of integrated assessment models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbosch, O. Y.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Bertram, C.; Carrara, S.; Emmerling, J.; Daly, H.; Kitous, A.; McCollum, D. L.; Saadi Failali, N.

    Income and fuel price pathways are key determinants in projections of the energy system in integrated assessment models. In recent years, more details have been added to the transport sector representation in these models. To better understand the model dynamics, this manuscript analyses transport

  15. The 1993 timber assessment market model: structure, projections, and policy simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darius M. Adams; Richard W. Haynes

    1996-01-01

    The 1993 timber assessment market model (TAMM) is a spatial model of the solidwood and timber inventory elements of the U.S. forest products sector. The TAMM model provides annual projections of volumes and prices in the solidwood products and sawtimber stumpage markets and estimates of total timber harvest and inventory by geographic region for periods of up to 50...

  16. Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.

    2017-12-01

    There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?

  17. Spatial regression methods capture prediction uncertainty in species distribution model projections through time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan K. Swanson; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Andrew O. Finley; James H. Thorne; Michael K. Schwartz

    2013-01-01

    The uncertainty associated with species distribution model (SDM) projections is poorly characterized, despite its potential value to decision makers. Error estimates from most modelling techniques have been shown to be biased due to their failure to account for spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of residual error. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) have the ability to...

  18. Modeling of nonuniform corrosion in salt brines: Salt Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reimus, P.W.

    1988-03-01

    A mechanistic approach to modeling nonuniform corrosion in brines is presented in this report. Equations are derived for completely describing the electrochemical environment within a localized corrosion cavity, and appropriate initial and boundary conditions are invoked to obtain a solvable system of equations. The initial and boundary conditions can be adjusted to simulate pitting, crevice corrosion, or stress corrosion cracking. Although no numerical results are presented, a numerical strategy for solving the equations is presented. The report focuses on the nonuniform corrosion behavior of mild steel; however, the modeling approach presented is expected to apply to a broad range of metallic materials. 34 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs

  19. HALL project. Justifying synthesis of the dimensioning inventory model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagrange, M.H.

    2003-01-01

    This document explains the input data and the hypotheses retained for the establishment of the dimensioning inventory model (DIM). It recalls, first, the scenarios considered for the spent fuel and reprocessing management, describes the updating of the list of families of high-activity and long living (HALL) waste packages and the hypotheses considered for their quantifying in the inventory model. It presents also the selection criteria of type-packages and the list of such packages. It precises the regrouping of package families into type-packages and the related quantitative data. Finally, it details the modalities of preparation of radiological and chemical description of type-packages. (J.S.)

  20. Final Report Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Whitney, Michael M. [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States)

    2016-09-30

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  1. How to Gain Value from a Project Management Model: Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Eva; Eskerod, Pernille

    2010-01-01

      Recent research has shown that PM models can be a powerful creator of value for companies. This paper extends this research aiming at gaining a deeper understanding of the preconditions that must exist for harvesting the values of a common frame of reference for project management. It reports...... findings from in-depth investigations in a Danish industrial concern that considers its PM model as the core of its project activities.  ...

  2. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Bistra Vassileva; Miroslav Nikolov

    2016-01-01

    The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed concep...

  3. CRAUDFUNDING AS A PERSPECTIVE MODEL OF FINANCING BUSINESS IDEAS AND PROJECTS

    OpenAIRE

    Vyacheslav Riznyk; Nadiya Riznyk

    2018-01-01

    The subject of research is crowdfunding as an alternative model of attracting financing for the implementation business ideas and projects based on the use of crowdfunding Internet platforms. The purpose of the article is to clarify the possibilities of crowdfunding as a new financial instrument and a promising source of funding. The aim of the article is to consider crowdfunding as an alternative model for financing author's business ideas and projects, to analyze the main types and mo...

  4. Collaborative Project: Improving the Representation of Coastal and Estuarine Processes in Earth System Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, Frank [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Dennis, John [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); MacCready, Parker [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Whitney, Michael [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2016-10-20

    This project aimed to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving and enhancing the representation of the processes involved in the cycling of freshwater through estuaries and coastal regions. This was a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of physical oceanographers, climate model developers, and computational scientists. It specifically targeted the DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  5. Governance model for integrating organizational project management (OPM with corporate practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr Mossalam

    2017-12-01

    Having proposed the model, it needed validation, which was done through implementing the model in organizations through automation projects. The implementation resulted in some changes in the model to achieve the required levels of accountability, responsibility, and transparency. These changes were incorporated into the model and were reflected in its modified version. Finally, the paper highlighted the recommended improvements that would enhance the future implementation of the model.

  6. Model of evaluating the projected payback period in energy preservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorshkov Aleksandr Sergeevich

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Providing energy efficiency of newly designed buildings is an important state task which is considered in EPBD directive and the latest regulations on energy saving. Though reducing energy consumption of the existing building is not less important. The majority of the existing buildings had been built before the implementation of modern energy saving programs. That’s why the volume of energy consumption in the existing buildings is greater than in new buildings. In frames of the given investigation the author considers the problem of forecasting the payback period of investment into reduction of energy consumption in a building. The formula is offered for calculating the projected payback period in energy saving with account for capital costs, calculated or actual value of the achieved energy saving effect, rise in tariffs for energy sources, discounting of the future cash flows and the volume and time for return of credit funds. Basing on the offered calculation methods it is possible to compare the efficiency of different energy saving solutions.

  7. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.

    2014-01-01

    Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents...... a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation...... to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data...

  8. A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

  9. Projection pursuit water quality evaluation model based on chicken swam algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhe

    2018-03-01

    In view of the uncertainty and ambiguity of each index in water quality evaluation, in order to solve the incompatibility of evaluation results of individual water quality indexes, a projection pursuit model based on chicken swam algorithm is proposed. The projection index function which can reflect the water quality condition is constructed, the chicken group algorithm (CSA) is introduced, the projection index function is optimized, the best projection direction of the projection index function is sought, and the best projection value is obtained to realize the water quality evaluation. The comparison between this method and other methods shows that it is reasonable and feasible to provide decision-making basis for water pollution control in the basin.

  10. A life cycle cost economics model for projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [management planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remer, D. S.

    1977-01-01

    A mathematical model is developed for calculating the life cycle costs for a project where the operating costs increase or decrease in a linear manner with time. The life cycle cost is shown to be a function of the investment costs, initial operating costs, operating cost gradient, project life time, interest rate for capital and salvage value. The results show that the life cycle cost for a project can be grossly underestimated (or overestimated) if the operating costs increase (or decrease) uniformly over time rather than being constant as is often assumed in project economic evaluations. The following range of variables is examined: (1) project life from 2 to 30 years; (2) interest rate from 0 to 15 percent per year; and (3) operating cost gradient from 5 to 90 percent of the initial operating costs. A numerical example plus tables and graphs is given to help calculate project life cycle costs over a wide range of variables.

  11. The option to expand a project: its assessment with the binomial options pricing model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    Full Text Available Traditional methods of investment appraisal, like the Net Present Value, are not able to include the value of the operational flexibility of the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to expand, are assumed to be included in the project information in addition to the expected cash flows. Thus, to calculate the total value of the project, we are going to apply the methodology of the Net Present Value to the different scenarios derived from the existence of the real option to expand. Taking into account the analogy between real and financial options, the value of including an option to expand is explored by using the binomial options pricing model. In this way, estimating the value of the option to expand is a tool which facilitates the control of the uncertainty element implicit in the project. Keywords: Real options, Option to expand, Binomial options pricing model, Investment project appraisal

  12. Development of generic key performance indicators for PMBOK® using a 3D project integration model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Since Martin Barnes’ so-called ‘iron triangle’ circa 1969, much debate has occurred over how best to describe the fundamental constraints that underpin project success. This paper develops a 3D project integration model for PMBOK® comprising core constraints of scope, cost, time and risk as a basis to propose six generic key performance indicators (KPIs that articulate successful project delivery. These KPIs are defined as value, efficiency, speed, innovation, complexity and impact and can each be measured objectively as ratios of the core constraints. An overall KPI (denoted as s3/ctr is also derived. The aim in this paper is to set out the case for such a model and to demonstrate how it can be employed to assess the performance of project teams in delivering successful outcomes at various stages in the project life cycle. As part of the model’s development, a new PMBOK® knowledge area concerning environmental management is advanced.

  13. Process, cost modeling and simulations for integrated project development of biomass for fuel and protein

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pannir Selvam, P.V.; Wolff, D.M.B.; Souza Melo, H.N.

    1998-01-01

    The construction of the models for biomass project development are described. These models, first constructed using QPRO electronic spread sheet for Windows, are now being developed with the aid of visual and object oriented program as tools using DELPHI V.1 for windows and process simulator SUPERPRO, V.2.7 Intelligent Inc. These models render the process development problems with economic objectives to be solved very rapidly. The preliminary analysis of cost and investments of biomass utilisation projects which are included for this study are: steam, ammonia, carbon dioxide and alkali pretreatment process, methane gas production using anaerobic digestion process, aerobic composting, ethanol fermentation and distillation, effluent treatments using high rate algae production as well as cogeneration of energy for drying. The main project under developments are the biomass valuation projects with the elephant (Napier) grass, sugar cane bagasse and microalgae, using models for mass balance, equipment and production cost. The sensibility analyses are carried out to account for stochastic variation of the process yield, production volume, price variations, using Monte Carlo method. These models allow the identification of economical and scale up problems of the technology. The results obtained with few preliminary project development with few case studies are reported for integrated project development for fuel and protein using process and cost simulation models. (author)

  14. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. van Zyl

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices involve significant human resource and organizational changes, one would reasonably expect this process to influence and resonate throughout all the dimensions of an organisation.

  15. NASA's TReK Project: A Case Study in Using the Spiral Model of Software Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrix, T. Dean; Schneider, Michelle P.

    1998-01-01

    Software development projects face numerous challenges that threaten their successful completion. Whether it is not enough money, too little time, or a case of "requirements creep" that has turned into a full sprint, projects must meet these challenges or face possible disastrous consequences. A robust, yet flexible process model can provide a mechanism through which software development teams can meet these challenges head on and win. This article describes how the spiral model has been successfully tailored to a specific project and relates some notable results to date.

  16. Application of an integrated model for evaluation and optimization of business projects portfolios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Costa Dutra

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an application of an integrated model for the evaluation and probabilistic optimization of projects portfolios, integrating economic, risk and social and environmental impacts analysis. The model uses the Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming techniques for treatment of uncertainties and optimization of projects portfolio. The integrated model was applied in a Brazilian company of electricity distributions. The portfolio of selected projects was related to the expansion of the supply of electricity in a town in the south of the country and the analysis horizon was set in ten years. The aim of the application was to maximize the return for the implementation of a substation and a transmission line in a set of projects, which are diverse in terms of costs, benefits and environmental and social impacts. As a result, the model generates: i an analysis of each individual projects, from budget information (costs and benefits involved and estimation of social and environmental impacts generated by the project and the risks (uncertainties involved and ii the optimum combination of projects that the company should prioritize to ensure the best financial return and lower social and environmental impacts, thus generating an optimal portfolio.

  17. APPLICATION OF AN INTEGRATED MODEL FOR EVALUATION AND OPTIMIZATION OF BUSINESS PROJECTS PORTFOLIOS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Auxiliadora Cannarozzo Tinoco

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an application of an integrated model for the evaluation and probabilistic optimization of projects portfolios, integrating economic, risk and social and environmental impacts analysis. The model uses the Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming techniques for treatment of uncertainties and optimization of projects portfolio. The integrated model was applied in a Brazilian company of electricity distributions. The portfolio of selected projects was related to the expansion of the supply of electricity in a town in the south of the country and the analysis horizon was set in ten years. The aim of the application was to maximize the return for the implementation of a substation and a transmission line in a set of projects, which are diverse in terms of costs, benefits and environmental and social impacts. As a result, the model generates: i an analysis of each individual projects, from budget information (costs and benefits involved and estimation of social and environmental impacts generated by the project and the risks (uncertainties involved and ii the optimum combination of projects that the company should prioritize to ensure the best financial return and lower social and environmental impacts, thus generating an optimal portfolio

  18. Goleman-Boyatzis Model of Emotional Intelligence for Dealing with Problems in Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Vincent Livesey

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As projects grow in size and complexity the sizes of teams needed to manage them also increases. This places greater emphasis on the need for the project manager to develop people management skills, commonly called soft skills, of which emotional intelligence (EI has been recognised as an important component. The objective of this research was to investigate the relevance of the Goleman-Boyatzis model of EI in dealing with the problems in large projects identified via a literature review. To achieve this end, a Delphi study using project managers who had been involved in the management of projects in excess of $500 million was used. The responses from the Delphi panel were analysed and the results showed that the competencies contained in the Goleman-Boyatzis model had a relevance of 95% or greater to the problems presented to the panel. A ranking of the various competencies contained within the model was also developed, some competencies being found to be more important than others. By confirming the importance of emotional intelligence, as described by the model, this research adds to the understanding of the necessary skills needed by a project manager to successfully manage large projects.

  19. MODELS AND METHODS OF SAFETY-ORIENTED PROJECT MANAGEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS: METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олег Богданович ЗАЧКО

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The methods and models of safety-oriented project management of the development of complex systems are proposed resulting from the convergence of existing approaches in project management in contrast to the mechanism of value-oriented management. A cognitive model of safety oriented project management of the development of complex systems is developed, which provides a synergistic effect that is to move the system from the original (pre condition in an optimal one from the viewpoint of life safety - post-project state. The approach of assessment the project complexity is proposed, which consists in taking into account the seasonal component of a time characteristic of life cycles of complex organizational and technical systems with occupancy. This enabled to take into account the seasonal component in simulation models of life cycle of the product operation in complex organizational and technical system, modeling the critical points of operation of systems with occupancy, which forms a new methodology for safety-oriented management of projects, programs and portfolios of projects with the formalization of the elements of complexity.

  20. Model projections for household energy use in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vries, Bert J.M. de; Isaac, Morna; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.; Lucas, Paul L.; Balachandra, P.

    2011-01-01

    Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presented and applied to India. Energy use and fuel choice is determined for five end-use functions (cooking, water heating, space heating, lighting and appliances) and for five different income quintiles in rural and urban areas. The paper specifically explores the consequences of different assumptions for income distribution and rural electrification on residential sector energy use and CO 2 emissions, finding that results are clearly sensitive to variations in these parameters. As a result of population and economic growth, total Indian residential energy use is expected to increase by around 65–75% in 2050 compared to 2005, but residential carbon emissions may increase by up to 9–10 times the 2005 level. While a more equal income distribution and rural electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels and reduce poverty, there is a trade-off in terms of higher CO 2 emissions via increased electricity use. - Highlights: ► A bottom-up model for residential energy use was developed and applied to India. ► The model distinguishes five end-use functions and rural/urban income quintiles. ► We explore consequences of income distribution and electrification on energy use. ► Equal income and electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels. ► Higher CO 2 emissions from increased electricity use are a trade-off.

  1. Human Engineering Modeling and Performance Lab Study Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva-Buisson, Yvette J.

    2014-01-01

    The HEMAP (Human Engineering Modeling and Performance) Lab is a joint effort between the Industrial and Human Engineering group and the KAVE (Kennedy Advanced Visualiations Environment) group. The lab consists of sixteen camera system that is used to capture human motions and operational tasks, through te use of a Velcro suit equipped with sensors, and then simulate these tasks in an ergonomic software package know as Jac, The Jack software is able to identify the potential risk hazards.

  2. Structural Equation Model for Evaluating Factors Affecting Quality of Social Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahid Hussain

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The quality of the constructed social infrastructure project has been considered a necessary measure for the sustainability of projects. Studies on factors affecting project quality have used various techniques and methods to explain the relationships between particular variables. Unexpectedly, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM has acquired very little concern in factors affecting project quality studies. To address this limitation in the body of knowledge, the objective of this study was to apply the SEM approach and build a model that explained and identified the critical factors affecting quality in social infrastructure projects. The authors developed a quantitative approach using smart-PLS version 3.2.7. This study shed light on the views of different experts based on their experience in public construction projects in Pakistan. Particularly, the authors aimed to find out the relationships between construction, stakeholders, materials, design, and external factors, and how these relate to project quality. The findings of this study revealed that the R2 value of the model was scored at 0.749, which meant that the five exogenous latent constructs collectively explained 74.9% of the variance in project quality. The Goodness-of-Fit of the model was 0.458. The construction related factor was the most important out of the five constructs. This study determined that better planning and monitoring and evaluation should be developed to better address and control the quality defects by decision-makers, project managers as well as contractors. These findings might support practitioners and decision makers to focus on quality related problems that might occur in their current or future projects.

  3. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T.; Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL -1 ]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT -1 ]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and statistical

  4. SR 97 - Alternative models project. Discrete fracture network modelling for performance assessment of Aberg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dershowitz, B.; Eiben, T. [Golder Associates Inc., Seattle (United States); Follin, S.; Andersson, Johan [Golder Grundteknik KB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1999-08-01

    As part of studies into the siting of a deep repository for nuclear waste, Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has commissioned the Alternative Models Project (AMP). The AMP is a comparison of three alternative modeling approaches for geosphere performance assessment for a single hypothetical site. The hypothetical site, arbitrarily named Aberg is based on parameters from the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southern Sweden. The Aberg model domain, boundary conditions and canister locations are defined as a common reference case to facilitate comparisons between approaches. This report presents the results of a discrete fracture pathways analysis of the Aberg site, within the context of the SR 97 performance assessment exercise. The Aberg discrete fracture network (DFN) site model is based on consensus Aberg parameters related to the Aespoe HRL site. Discrete fracture pathways are identified from canister locations in a prototype repository design to the surface of the island or to the sea bottom. The discrete fracture pathways analysis presented in this report is used to provide the following parameters for SKB's performance assessment transport codes FARF31 and COMP23: * F-factor: Flow wetted surface normalized with regards to flow rate (yields an appreciation of the contact area available for diffusion and sorption processes) [TL{sup -1}]. * Travel Time: Advective transport time from a canister location to the environmental discharge [T]. * Canister Flux: Darcy flux (flow rate per unit area) past a representative canister location [LT{sup -1}]. In addition to the above, the discrete fracture pathways analysis in this report also provides information about: additional pathway parameters such as pathway length, pathway width, transport aperture, reactive surface area and transmissivity, percentage of canister locations with pathways to the surface discharge, spatial pattern of pathways and pathway discharges, visualization of pathways, and

  5. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    Climate Models (RCMs) and General Circulation Models (GCMs). These multi-model ensembles provide the information needed to estimate probabilistic climate change projections. Several probabilistic methods have been suggested. One common assumption in most of these methods is that the climate models...... are independent. The effects of this assumption on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections are addressed in this study. First, the interdependency of the 95% quantile of wet days in the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated. For this statistic and the region studied, the RCMs cannot be assumed...

  6. FUNCTIONAL MODEL OF THE MATERIAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FOR PROJECTS OF THE CREATION OF NEW TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yu. Danshyna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to problem of material management arising in the implementation of projects for the development and creation (modernization of the new techniques. The uniqueness of the projects, their limit on the cost and time does not allow the use of traditional approaches to resource management. Such projects are often implemented in the development of companies; where it is not possible to abandon the traditional operating methods of management. The aim of the article is a formalization of the process of material management of projects, a description of its information flows for integrate into the project management practices and for improve the efficiency of material management. For the systematization of information arising from the material resources management, invited the set-theoretic representation of the management process. According with the requirements of project management standards were described the sets and defined rules of their transformation. Specification of the set-theoretic representation helped to establish the area and limits of the modelling process. Further decomposition process became the basis of the functional model, constructed in accordance with the methodology IDEF 0. A graphical representation of the model allows you to visualize the process at different levels of detail. For specification of issues related to the organization and promotion of material flow, were developed functional models of sub-processes and were described the identified data-flows. For the harmonization of process and project approaches formulated conditions for evaluating the efficiency of material management. The developed models can be the basis for designing the structure of companies, for regulation of their project activities, as well as for establishing an information system of management resources of projects.

  7. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

    2013-09-01

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  8. Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

    2013-01-01

    Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

  9. The Model of Lake Operation in Water Transfer Projects Based on the Theory of Water- right

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi-peng, Yan; Chao, Liu; Fang-ping, Tang

    the lake operation is a very important content in Water Transfer Projects. The previous studies have not any related to water-right and water- price previous. In this paper, water right is divided into three parts, one is initialization waterright, another is by investment, and the third is government's water- right re-distribution. The water-right distribution model is also build. After analyzing the cost in water transfer project, a model and computation method for the capacity price as well as quantity price is proposed. The model of lake operation in water transfer projects base on the theory of water- right is also build. The simulation regulation for the lake was carried out by using historical data and Genetic Algorithms. Water supply and impoundment control line of the lake was proposed. The result can be used by south to north water transfer projects.

  10. Human eye modelling for ophthalmic simulators project for clinic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, Andrea; Santos, Adimir dos; Yoriyaz, Helio

    2002-01-01

    Most of eye tumors are treated by surgical means, which involves the enucleation of affected eyes. In terms of treatment and control of diseases, there is brachytherapy, which often utilizes small applicator of Co-60, I-125, Ru-106, Ir-192, etc. These methods are shown to be very efficient but highly cost. The objective of this work is propose a detailed simulator modelling for eye characterization. Additionally, this study can contribute to design and build a new applicator in order to reduce the cost and to allow more patients to be treated

  11. Foothills model forest grizzly bear study : project update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-01-01

    This report updates a five year study launched in 1999 to ensure the continued healthy existence of grizzly bears in west-central Alberta by integrating their needs into land management decisions. The objective was to gather better information and to develop computer-based maps and models regarding grizzly bear migration, habitat use and response to human activities. The study area covers 9,700 square km in west-central Alberta where 66 to 147 grizzly bears exist. During the first 3 field seasons, researchers captured and radio collared 60 bears. Researchers at the University of Calgary used remote sensing tools and satellite images to develop grizzly bear habitat maps. Collaborators at the University of Washington used trained dogs to find bear scat which was analyzed for DNA, stress levels and reproductive hormones. Resource Selection Function models are being developed by researchers at the University of Alberta to identify bear locations and to see how habitat is influenced by vegetation cover and oil, gas, forestry and mining activities. The health of the bears is being studied by researchers at the University of Saskatchewan and the Canadian Cooperative Wildlife Health Centre. The study has already advanced the scientific knowledge of grizzly bear behaviour. Preliminary results indicate that grizzlies continue to find mates, reproduce and gain weight and establish dens. These are all good indicators of a healthy population. Most bear deaths have been related to poaching. The study will continue for another two years. 1 fig.

  12. Sustainable model for financial viability of decentralized biomass gasifier based power projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palit, Debajit; Malhotra, Ramit; Kumar, Atul

    2011-01-01

    This paper made a modest attempt for designing a sustainable model for financial viability of biomass gasifier power projects for enhancing electricity access in India and other developing countries. For long term sustainability of distributed generation projects in remote rural areas, viability from both project implementing agency (PIA) and the end-users need to be ensured. The minimum required prices of electricity from both PIA and end-user perspective have been estimated. While for PIA the cost recovery is the key for viability, the affordability to pay the electricity cost is crucial for the end users. Analysis carried out in this paper on the basis of data obtained from operational projects implemented in India reveal that it is essential to operate the system at a higher capacity utilization factor. While this can be achieved though creating convergence with locally relevant economic activity, it is also observed that micro-enterprises cannot pay beyond a certain price of electricity to keep it sustainable. This paper sets forth a case for developing a regulatory mechanism to extend the tariff fixation for the projects and providing cross-subsidies to ensure long term sustainability of off-grid project. - Highlights: → We design sustainable financial model for viability of biomass gasifier projects. → Analysis based on field data obtained from operational projects in India. Estimated electricity pricing from both implementing agency and end-users perspective. → A regulatory mechanism for tariff fixation and cross subsidization is recommended.

  13. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Steinacher

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP and export of particulate organic carbon (EP are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

  14. The generalized hedgehog and the projected chiral soliton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiolhais, M.; Kernforschungsanlage Juelich G.m.b.H.; Goeke, K.; Bochum Univ.; Gruemmer, F.; Urbano, J.N.

    1988-01-01

    The linear chiral soliton model with quark fields and elementary pion and sigma fields is solved in order to describe static properties of the nucleon and the delta resonance. To this end a Fock state of the system is constructed which consists of three valence quarks in a 1s orbit with a generalized hedgehog spin-flavour configuration cosηvertical strokeu↓> - sin ηvertical stroked↑>. Coherent states are used to provide a quantum description for the mesonic parts of the total wave function. The corresponding classical pion field also exhibits a generalized hedgehog structure. Various nucleon properties are calculated. These include proton and neutron charge raii, and the mangnetic moment of the proton for which experiment is obtained. (orig./HSI)

  15. Simplified modeling photo-ionisation of uranium in Silva project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodin, B.; Pourre-Brichot, P.; Valadier, L.

    2000-01-01

    SILVA is a process which targets 235 U by photo-ionization. It is therefore important to compute the proportion of ionized atoms depending on the properties of the lasers. The interaction between atoms and lasers occurs via the link between the Maxwell and Schroedinger equations. This kind of approach is only feasible for a few simple cases: e.g. wave plane or simple laser profiling. Introducing the characteristics of SILVA, computation time increases substantially (several hundred days per kilogram of vapor). To circumvent this problem, we wrote a program (Jackpot) that treats photo-ionization by a simplified model: kinetics equations. However, various optical components were introduced with absorption factor by wavelength, to account for the effects of optics systems on the trajectory. Instead of seeking the complex wavefunction solutions of the Maxwell-Schroedinger equations, we solve a system where the unknown values are a set of populations. The size of the set depends only on the number of hold points in the process. Recent work shows that we can converge towards the same results as the Maxwell-Schroedinger system if we can fit the cross-sections of the kinetic system correctly. As to the optical aspect, Jackpot can handle diffraction. In this case, it solves the propagation equation of an electric field by a double Fourier transform method. For interactions with mirrors, the new direction of a ray is calculated with Descartes law, applying a numerical phase mask to the electric field. We account for diaphragmation mechanisms as well as the absorption law for each mirror, by a real factor by wavelength. Jackpot is simple to use and can be used to predict experimental results. Jackpot is now a library calling by a script written in Python. Changes are being made for a closer approach to reality (real laser, new photo-ionization model)

  16. Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Hollie; Crain, Timothy P.

    2010-01-01

    The basis of the project was creating a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 lunar landing site. Vital components included surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. The model was made for Project M support when evaluating approach and terminal descent as well as when planning surface operations with respect to the terrain. The project had five main mi lestones during the length of the project. The first was examining the best method to use to re-create the Apollo 17 landing site and then reviewing research fmdings with Dr. Tim Crain and EO staff which occurred on June 25, 2010 at a meeting. The second step was formulating a construction plan, budget, and schedule and then presenting the plan for authority to proceed which occurred on July 6,2010. The third part was building a prototype to test materials and building processes which were completed by July 13, 2010. Next was assembling the landing site model and presenting a mid-term construction status report on July 29, 2010. The fifth and final milestone was demonstrating the model and presenting an exit pitch which happened on August 4, 2010. The project was very technical: it needed a lot of research about moon topography, lighting conditions and angles of the sun on the moon, Apollo 17, and Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT), before starting the actual building process. This required using Spreadsheets, searching internet sources and conducting personal meetings with project representatives. This information assisted the interns in deciding the scale of the model with respect to cracks, craters and rocks and their relative sizes as the objects mentioned could interfere with any of the Lunar Landers: Apollo, Project M and future Landers. The project concluded with the completion of a three dimensional scale model of the Apollo 17 Lunar landing site. This model assists Project M members because they can now visualize

  17. Hardware architecture for projective model calculation and false match refining using random sample consensus algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimi, Ehsan; Behrad, Alireza; Ghaznavi-Ghoushchi, Mohammad Bagher; Shanbehzadeh, Jamshid

    2016-11-01

    The projective model is an important mapping function for the calculation of global transformation between two images. However, its hardware implementation is challenging because of a large number of coefficients with different required precisions for fixed point representation. A VLSI hardware architecture is proposed for the calculation of a global projective model between input and reference images and refining false matches using random sample consensus (RANSAC) algorithm. To make the hardware implementation feasible, it is proved that the calculation of the projective model can be divided into four submodels comprising two translations, an affine model and a simpler projective mapping. This approach makes the hardware implementation feasible and considerably reduces the required number of bits for fixed point representation of model coefficients and intermediate variables. The proposed hardware architecture for the calculation of a global projective model using the RANSAC algorithm was implemented using Verilog hardware description language and the functionality of the design was validated through several experiments. The proposed architecture was synthesized by using an application-specific integrated circuit digital design flow utilizing 180-nm CMOS technology as well as a Virtex-6 field programmable gate array. Experimental results confirm the efficiency of the proposed hardware architecture in comparison with software implementation.

  18. Projecting the Mental Model of Social Networking Site Usage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Hui Wu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of online social networking sites (SNS has created a new world of connection and communication for online users. SNS usage has become an important part of people’s daily lives. This study aims to obtain new insights towards SNS usage behaviour. Based on participants’ mental models, it is hoped to make more clear exposition about their perceptions and experiences as well as to explore what factors affect their behaviour for using social networking sites. A blend of qualitative methodologies was adopted for data collection and analysis, including the Zaltman metaphor elicitation technique (ZMET method, the laddering technique, and the means-end chain theory. The results of this study show that the most important values of using SNS include its convenience, maintaining relationship, gaining relaxation, as well as reaching coherence. Additionally, participants pointed out they cared about their online privacy issues very much and had found some potential dangers; however, they continued to use these sites because of the great benefits and enjoyment.

  19. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers.

  20. A new approach for modelling variability in residential construction projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Arashpour

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is plagued by long cycle times caused by variability in the supply chain. Variations or undesirable situations are the result of factors such as non-standard practices, work site accidents, inclement weather conditions and faults in design. This paper uses a new approach for modelling variability in construction by linking relative variability indicators to processes. Mass homebuilding sector was chosen as the scope of the analysis because data is readily available. Numerous simulation experiments were designed by varying size of capacity buffers in front of trade contractors, availability of trade contractors, and level of variability in homebuilding processes. The measurements were shown to lead to an accurate determination of relationships between these factors and production parameters. The variability indicator was found to dramatically affect the tangible performance measures such as home completion rates. This study provides for future analysis of the production homebuilding sector, which may lead to improvements in performance and a faster product delivery to homebuyers. 

  1. PERLUASAN IMPLEMENTASI PENDIDIKAN KEWIRAUSAHAAN MODEL PROJECT BASED LEARNING BAGI REMAJA PUTUS SEKOLAH KORBAN GEMPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moerdiyanto Moerdiyanto

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Widen Implementation of Entrepreneurship Education Using Project Based Learning Model for Earthquake Victim Drop Out Teenagers. This action research aims at figuring out achievement level of entrepreneurship personalities mastering and business skills held by drop out teenagers after taking part in real business learning experience using Project Based Learning. The population for this study is all of the earthquake victim drop out teenagers in Piyungan, Pleret, and Sewon Bantul Yogyakarta Special Territory.  Interviewed, questionnaire, observation, and documentation are employed to collect data. The results show that entrepreneurship education using Project Based Learning model leads to highly mastering of entrepreneurship personalities (soft skill and highly mastering of business skills (hard skill. Furthermore, through this study Kelompok Usaha Mandiri (Group of Independent Business is created, and then the drop out teenagers can run their own business.   Keyword: business skill, project based learning, soft skill, hard skill   Abstrak: Perluasan Implementasi Pendidikan Kewirausahaan Model Project Based Learning Bagi Remaja Putus Sekolah Korban Gempa. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian tindakan dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat keberhasilan penguasaan kepribadian (jiwa kewirausahaan dan keterampilan usaha yang dimiliki Remaja Putus Sekolah (RPS setelah memperoleh pengalaman belajar bisnis riil dengan model Project Based Learning. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah semua remaja putus sekolah korban gempa di Kecamatan Piyungan, Kecamatan Pleret, dan Kecamatan Sewon Kabupaten Bantul DIY. Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan wawancara, angket, observasi, dokumentasi, dan pemberian tugas. Data dianalisis menggunakan teknik deskriptif kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pemberian pendidikan kewirausahaan dengan menggunakan model Project Based Learning bisa berhasil dengan baik yang ditunjukkan dengan

  2. Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

  3. Model and Algorithm for Substantiating Solutions for Organization of High-Rise Construction Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anisimov Vladimir

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the models and the algorithm for the optimal plan formation for the organization of the material and logistical processes of the high-rise construction project and their financial support are developed. The model is based on the representation of the optimization procedure in the form of a non-linear problem of discrete programming, which consists in minimizing the execution time of a set of interrelated works by a limited number of partially interchangeable performers while limiting the total cost of performing the work. The proposed model and algorithm are the basis for creating specific organization management methodologies for the high-rise construction project.

  4. MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES TO EMERGING MARKETS: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TURNKEY PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bistra Vassileva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the international market entry strategies in the light of globalisation processes and to propose a conceptual model of turnkey projects as market entry mode. The specific research objectives are as follows: 1. to develop an integrated framework of the turnkey marketing process as a conceptual model; 2. to analyse BRICS countries as potential host countries for turnkey projects implementation; 3. to assess potential implications of proposed conceptual model for global market entry decisions.

  5. Model and Algorithm for Substantiating Solutions for Organization of High-Rise Construction Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, Vladimir; Anisimov, Evgeniy; Chernysh, Anatoliy

    2018-03-01

    In the paper the models and the algorithm for the optimal plan formation for the organization of the material and logistical processes of the high-rise construction project and their financial support are developed. The model is based on the representation of the optimization procedure in the form of a non-linear problem of discrete programming, which consists in minimizing the execution time of a set of interrelated works by a limited number of partially interchangeable performers while limiting the total cost of performing the work. The proposed model and algorithm are the basis for creating specific organization management methodologies for the high-rise construction project.

  6. Assessing the Option to Abandon an Investment Project by the Binomial Options Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Usually, traditional methods for investment project appraisal such as the net present value (hereinafter NPV do not incorporate in their values the operational flexibility offered by including a real option included in the project. In this paper, real options, and more specifically the option to abandon, are analysed as a complement to cash flow sequence which quantifies the project. In this way, by considering the existing analogy with financial options, a mathematical expression is derived by using the binomial options pricing model. This methodology provides the value of the option to abandon the project within one, two, and in general n periods. Therefore, this paper aims to be a useful tool in determining the value of the option to abandon according to its residual value, thus making easier the control of the uncertainty element within the project.

  7. Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

    2000-01-01

    The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

  8. The Palouse Basin Participatory Model Pilot Project: A Participatory Approach to Bi-state Groundwater Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beall, A.; Fiedler, F.; Boll, J.; Cosens, B.; Harris, C.

    2008-12-01

    In March 2008, The University of Idaho Waters of the West, the Palouse Basin Aquifer Committee and its Citizen Advisory Group undertook a pilot project to explore the use of participatory modeling to assist with water resource management decisions. The Palouse basin supplies Moscow, Idaho, Pullman, Washington, and surrounding communities with high quality groundwater. However, water levels in the major aquifer systems have been declining since records have been kept. Solutions are complicated by jurisdictional considerations and limited alternatives for supply. We hope that by using a participatory approach major conflicts will be avoided. Group system dynamics modeling has been used for various environmental concerns such as air quality, biological management, water quality and quantity. These models create a nexus of science, policy, and economic and social concerns, which enhances discussion of issues surrounding the use of natural resources. Models may be developed into educational and or decision support tools which can be used to assist with planning processes. The long-term goal of the Palouse basin project is to develop such a model. The pilot project participants include hydrologists, facility operators, policy makers and local citizens. The model they have developed integrates issues such as scientific uncertainty, groundwater volumes, and potential conservation measures and costs. Preliminary results indicate that participants are satisfied with the approach and are looking to use the model for education and to help direct potential research. We will present the results of the pilot project, including the developed model and insights from the process.

  9. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nowicki, Sophie M J; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412549123; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model

  10. Design and Development of a User Interface for the Dynamic Model of Software Project Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-03-01

    rectory of the user’s choice for future...the last choice selected. Let us assume for the sake of this tour that the user has selected all eight choices . ESTIMATED ACTUAL PROJECT SIZE DEFINITION...manipulation of varaibles in the * •. TJin~ca model "h ... ser Inter ace for the Dynamica model was designed b in iterative process of prototyping

  11. A multistate model to project elderly disability in case of limited data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Gaag, N.L.; Bijwaard, G.E.; de Beer, J.A.A.; Bonneux, L.

    2015-01-01

    Background : Prevalence of disability depends on when a person becomes disabled (disability incidence) and when he or she dies (mortality). Multistate projection models can take into account both underlying processes of disability prevalence. The application of these models, however, is often

  12. A model validation framework for climate change projection and impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Refsgaard, Jens C.; Andréassian, Vazken

    2014-01-01

    methods for projection of climate change (single and ensemble model projections and space‐timesubstitution) and use of different data sources as proxy for future climate conditions (long historical records comprising non‐ stationarity, paleo data, and controlled experiments). The basic guiding principles...... proxy data, reflecting future conditions. This test can be used with both single and ensemble model projections as well as with space‐time‐substitutions. It is generally expected to be more powerful when applied to a model ensemble than to a single model. Since space‐timesubstitutions include...... a differential split‐sample test using best available proxy data that reflect the expected future conditions at the site being considered. Such proxy data may be obtained from long historical records comprising nonstationarity, paleo data, or controlled experiments. The test can be applied with different...

  13. A Model of Successful School Leadership from the International Successful School Principalship Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Gurr

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The International Successful School Principalship Project (ISSPP has been actively conducting research about the work of successful principals since 2001. Findings from four project books and eight models derived from this project are synthesised into a model of successful school leadership. Building on Gurr, Drysdale and Mulford’s earlier model, the work of school leaders is described as engaging within the school context to influence student and school outcomes through interventions in teaching and learning, school capacity building, and the wider context. The qualities a leader brings to their role, a portfolio approach to using leadership ideas, constructing networks, collaborations and partnerships, and utilising accountability and evaluation for evidence-informed improvement, are important additional elements. The model is applicable to all in leadership roles in schools.

  14. An incremental procedure model for e-learning projects at universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pahlke, Friedrich

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available E-learning projects at universities are produced under different conditions than in industry. The main characteristic of many university projects is that these are realized quasi in a solo effort. In contrast, in private industry the different, interdisciplinary skills that are necessary for the development of e-learning are typically supplied by a multimedia agency.A specific procedure tailored for the use at universities is therefore required to facilitate mastering the amount and complexity of the tasks.In this paper an incremental procedure model is presented, which describes the proceeding in every phase of the project. It allows a high degree of flexibility and emphasizes the didactical concept – instead of the technical implementation. In the second part, we illustrate the practical use of the theoretical procedure model based on the project “Online training in Genetic Epidemiology”.

  15. Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, J.O.; Bigelow, N.H.; Prentice, I.C.; Harrison, S.P.; Bartlein, P.J.; Christensen, T.R.; Cramer, W.; Matveyeva, N.V.; McGuire, A.D.; Murray, D.F.; Razzhivin, V.Y.; Smith, B.; Walker, D.A.; Anderson, P.M.; Andreev, A.A.; Brubaker, L.B.; Edwards, M.E.; Lozhkin, A.V.

    2003-01-01

    Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55??N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to > 700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

  16. Effects of Business Model Development Projects on Organizational Culture: A Multiple Case Study of SMEs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Santti

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that links between organizational culture and innovativeness/performance may act as a “social glue” that helps a company develop organizational culture as a competitive advantage. In this study of three case companies, the organizational culture change due business model development projects is studied using the Competing Values Framework (CVF tool and interviews with respondents about discovered changes. To reveal intervention and implied effects between business model development project and organizational culture changes, we used CIMO logic (context, intervention, mechanism, and outcome to bridge practice and theory by explanatory, backward-looking research. Our case studies of companies in relatively short-duration business model development projects indicate that organizational culture may have some dynamic characteristics, for example, an increase of the adhocracy organizational type in all case companies or an increase in the hierarchical leadership type in one case company. Thus, the development of an organizational culture type can be partly controlled. Our results also indicated business model development projects do have a minor effect on organizational culture, even when development activities have not been put fully into practice. However, the more comprehensively business model development project activities have been put into practice, the larger the effect on organizational culture.

  17. Developing integrated parametric planning models for budgeting and managing complex projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etnyre, Vance A.; Black, Ken U.

    1988-01-01

    The applicability of integrated parametric models for the budgeting and management of complex projects is investigated. Methods for building a very flexible, interactive prototype for a project planning system, and software resources available for this purpose, are discussed and evaluated. The prototype is required to be sensitive to changing objectives, changing target dates, changing costs relationships, and changing budget constraints. To achieve the integration of costs and project and task durations, parametric cost functions are defined by a process of trapezoidal segmentation, where the total cost for the project is the sum of the various project cost segments, and each project cost segment is the integral of a linearly segmented cost loading function over a specific interval. The cost can thus be expressed algebraically. The prototype was designed using Lotus-123 as the primary software tool. This prototype implements a methodology for interactive project scheduling that provides a model of a system that meets most of the goals for the first phase of the study and some of the goals for the second phase.

  18. The Formation of the Model of Diagnosing the Results Implementation of of Consulting Projects for Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuzmin Oleh Ye.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In the article the graphic-analytical model of diagnostics of results of implementation of consulting projects is formed, which allows to: take into consideration interests of participants to the project on choice of methods and methodologies of diagnosing; allocate alternative sets of business indicators for each object of impact in terms of consulting project; establish economic and non-economic criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of consulting, as well as monitoring of indicators and automated processing of diagnostic results to control deviations from the optimal values of the diagnosed project results. A structural-logical model of formation of alternative sets of indicators and choice of indicators for diagnostics of results of consulting projects has been developed. The elements of the enterprise management system have been codified to harmonize the corresponding indicators with their subsequent combination within the proposed sets. The control system objects and their elements have been allocated. The groups of indicators according to the technology of Balanced Score Card (BSC have been presented. The prospect of further research is the economic assessment of implementation of the diagnosed consulting projects, which will reveal the links between the parameters of production-economic activity and the assessment of projects, and allows choose the most significant ones.

  19. Developing a stochastic traffic volume prediction model for public-private partnership projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phong, Nguyen Thanh; Likhitruangsilp, Veerasak; Onishi, Masamitsu

    2017-11-01

    Transportation projects require an enormous amount of capital investment resulting from their tremendous size, complexity, and risk. Due to the limitation of public finances, the private sector is invited to participate in transportation project development. The private sector can entirely or partially invest in transportation projects in the form of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme, which has been an attractive option for several developing countries, including Vietnam. There are many factors affecting the success of PPP projects. The accurate prediction of traffic volume is considered one of the key success factors of PPP transportation projects. However, only few research works investigated how to predict traffic volume over a long period of time. Moreover, conventional traffic volume forecasting methods are usually based on deterministic models which predict a single value of traffic volume but do not consider risk and uncertainty. This knowledge gap makes it difficult for concessionaires to estimate PPP transportation project revenues accurately. The objective of this paper is to develop a probabilistic traffic volume prediction model. First, traffic volumes were estimated following the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process. Monte Carlo technique is then applied to simulate different scenarios. The results show that this stochastic approach can systematically analyze variations in the traffic volume and yield more reliable estimates for PPP projects.

  20. Modeling and Simulation Optimization and Feasibility Studies for the Neutron Detection without Helium-3 Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ely, James H.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Swinhoe, Martyn T.; Lintereur, Azaree T.

    2013-01-01

    This report details the results of the modeling and simulation work accomplished for the ‘Neutron Detection without Helium-3’ project during the 2011 and 2012 fiscal years. The primary focus of the project is to investigate commercially available technologies that might be used in safeguards applications in the relatively near term. Other technologies that are being developed may be more applicable in the future, but are outside the scope of this study.

  1. Collaborative Management of Complex Major Construction Projects: AnyLogic-Based Simulation Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Zhao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Complex supply chain system collaborative management of major construction projects effectively integrates the different participants in the construction project. This paper establishes a simulation model based on AnyLogic to reveal the collaborative elements in the complex supply chain management system and the modes of action as well as the transmission problems of the intent information. Thus it is promoting the participants to become an organism with coordinated development and coevolution. This study can help improve the efficiency and management of the complex system of major construction projects.

  2. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme reinfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  3. Effects of climate model interdependency on the uncertainty quantification of extreme rainfall projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer, M. A.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2017-01-01

    are independent. This study investigates the validity of this assumption and its effects on the estimated probabilistic projections of the changes in the 95% quantile of wet days. The methodology is divided in two main parts. First, the interdependency of the ENSEMBLES RCMs is estimated using the methodology...... developed by Pennell and Reichler (2011). The results show that the projections from the ENSEMBLES RCMs cannot be assumed independent. This result is then used to estimate the uncertainty in climate model projections. A Bayesian approach has been developed using the procedure suggested by Tebaldi et al...

  4. Analysis of the speckle properties in a laser projection system based on a human eye model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Zhe; Wang, Anting; Ma, Qianli; Ming, Hai

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, the properties of the speckle that is observed by humans in laser projection systems are theoretically analyzed. The speckle pattern on the fovea of the human retina is numerically simulated by introducing a chromatic human eye model. The results show that the speckle contrast experienced by humans is affected by the light intensity of the projected images and the wavelength of the laser source when considering the paracentral vision. Furthermore, the image quality is also affected by these two parameters. We believe that these results are useful for evaluating the speckle noise in laser projection systems.

  5. Decomposing the uncertainty in climate impact projections of Dynamic Vegetation Models: a test with the forest models LANDCLIM and FORCLIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cailleret, Maxime; Snell, Rebecca; von Waldow, Harald; Kotlarski, Sven; Bugmann, Harald

    2015-04-01

    Different levels of uncertainty should be considered in climate impact projections by Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs), particularly when it comes to managing climate risks. Such information is useful to detect the key processes and uncertainties in the climate model - impact model chain and may be used to support recommendations for future improvements in the simulation of both climate and biological systems. In addition, determining which uncertainty source is dominant is an important aspect to recognize the limitations of climate impact projections by a multi-model ensemble mean approach. However, to date, few studies have clarified how each uncertainty source (baseline climate data, greenhouse gas emission scenario, climate model, and DVM) affects the projection of ecosystem properties. Focusing on one greenhouse gas emission scenario, we assessed the uncertainty in the projections of a forest landscape model (LANDCLIM) and a stand-scale forest gap model (FORCLIM) that is caused by linking climate data with an impact model. LANDCLIM was used to assess the uncertainty in future landscape properties of the Visp valley in Switzerland that is due to (i) the use of different 'baseline' climate data (gridded data vs. data from weather stations), and (ii) differences in climate projections among 10 GCM-RCM chains. This latter point was also considered for the projections of future forest properties by FORCLIM at several sites along an environmental gradient in Switzerland (14 GCM-RCM chains), for which we also quantified the uncertainty caused by (iii) the model chain specific statistical properties of the climate time-series, and (iv) the stochasticity of the demographic processes included in the model, e.g., the annual number of saplings that establish, or tree mortality. Using methods of variance decomposition analysis, we found that (i) The use of different baseline climate data strongly impacts the prediction of forest properties at the lowest and highest, but

  6. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  7. A project management framework for enhanced productivity performance using building information modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longhui Liao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Although the Singapore government has mandated submissions of building plans in building information modelling (BIM format since July 2013, this does not yet seem to lead to enhanced productivity performance. BIM collaboration between designers and downstream contractors appears to remain inadequate. While many studies have been conducted on using BIM for better project outcomes, studies that relate BIM with the identification of non-value adding activities in the project lifecycle and the reduction of the resulting wastes are at infancy stage. This paper aims to propose a project management framework for enhancing the productivity of building projects in Singapore, which forms Phase I of an ongoing research project. A two-pronged approach is presented. Firstly, non-value adding activities in the current project delivery process that uses BIM partially in Singapore are identified by comparing the typical current process with full BIM-based processes; such activities are cut down after process transformation in terms of people, process, and technology. Secondly, time savings derived from reducing the wastes caused by these activities are quantified. The proposed framework was validated by a case study of a local residential project. It was concluded that this framework provides a valuable tool for project teams to enhance productivity performance.

  8. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P.; Antle, J. M.; Nelson, G. C.; Porter, C.; Janssen, S.; hide

    2012-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with

  9. Space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection in nonlinear model reduction.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Youngsoo [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Extreme-scale Data Science and Analytics Dept.; Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Carlberg, Kevin Thomas [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Extreme-scale Data Science and Analytics Dept.

    2017-09-01

    Our work proposes a space-time least-squares Petrov-Galerkin (ST-LSPG) projection method for model reduction of nonlinear dynamical systems. In contrast to typical nonlinear model-reduction methods that first apply Petrov-Galerkin projection in the spatial dimension and subsequently apply time integration to numerically resolve the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system, the proposed method applies projection in space and time simultaneously. To accomplish this, the method first introduces a low-dimensional space-time trial subspace, which can be obtained by computing tensor decompositions of state-snapshot data. The method then computes discrete-optimal approximations in this space-time trial subspace by minimizing the residual arising after time discretization over all space and time in a weighted ℓ2-norm. This norm can be de ned to enable complexity reduction (i.e., hyper-reduction) in time, which leads to space-time collocation and space-time GNAT variants of the ST-LSPG method. Advantages of the approach relative to typical spatial-projection-based nonlinear model reduction methods such as Galerkin projection and least-squares Petrov-Galerkin projection include: (1) a reduction of both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the dynamical system, (2) the removal of spurious temporal modes (e.g., unstable growth) from the state space, and (3) error bounds that exhibit slower growth in time. Numerical examples performed on model problems in fluid dynamics demonstrate the ability of the method to generate orders-of-magnitude computational savings relative to spatial-projection-based reduced-order models without sacrificing accuracy.

  10. Review of the groundwater flow modelling of the Swiss Project Gewaehr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, P.C.; Jackson, C.P.; Herbert, A.W.; Atkinson, R.

    1986-02-01

    The authors review the hydrogeological modelling work undertaken by NAGRA (National Co-operative for the Storage of Radioactive Waste) for Project Gewahr (Guarantee). The FEM301 computer code that was used by NAGRA, their general approach to flow simulation and the specific finite-element models employed are all discussed; and the results of a verification are presented using the authors' own computer code NAMMU. Recommendations for improvements in the NAGRA modelling and for areas of future work are made. (author)

  11. 'Reference Biospheres' for solid radioactive waste disposal. Report of BIOMASS Theme 1 of the BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) Programme. Part of the IAEA Co-ordinated Research Project on Biosphere Modelling and Assessment (BIOMASS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    The IAEA Programme on BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment (BIOMASS) was launched in Vienna in October 1996. The programme was concerned with developing and improving capabilities to predict the transfer of radionuclides in the environment. The programme had three themes: Theme 1: Radioactive Waste Disposal. The objective was to develop the concept of a standard or reference biosphere for application to the assessment of the long-term safety of repositories for radioactive waste. Under the general heading of 'Reference Biospheres', six Task Groups were established: Task Group 1: Principles for the Definition of Critical and Other Exposure Groups. Task Group 2: Principles for the Application of Data to Assessment Models. Task Group 3: Consideration of Alternative Assessment Contexts. Task Group 4: Biosphere System Identification and Justification. Task Group 5: Biosphere System Descriptions. Task Group 6: Model Development. Theme 2: Environmental Releases. BIOMASS provided an international forum for activities aimed at increasing the confidence in methods and models for the assessment of radiation exposure related to environmental releases. Two Working Groups addressed issues concerned with the reconstruction of radiation doses received by people from past releases of radionuclides to the environment and the evaluation of the efficacy of remedial measures. Theme 3: Biosphere Processes. The aim of this Theme was to improve capabilities for modelling the transfer of radionuclides in particular parts of the biosphere identified as being of potential radiological significance and where there were gaps in modelling approaches. This topic was explored using a range of methods including reviews of the literature, model inter-comparison exercises and, where possible, model testing against independent sources of data. Three Working Groups were established to examine the modelling of: (1) long term tritium dispersion in the environment; (2) radionuclide uptake by fruits; and (3

  12. DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENCE PROCESS SKILLS STUDENTS WITH PROJECT BASED LEARNING MODEL- BASED TRAINING IN LEARNING PHYSICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratna Malawati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to improve the physics Science Process Skills Students on cognitive and psychomotor aspects by using model based Project Based Learning training.The object of this study is the Project Based Learning model used in the learning process of Computationa Physics.The method used is classroom action research through two learning cycles, each cycle consisting of the stages of planning, implementation, observation and reflection. In the first cycle of treatment with their emphasis given training in the first phase up to third in the model Project Based Learning, while the second cycle is given additional treatment with emphasis discussion is collaboration in achieving the best results for each group of products. The results of data analysis showed increased ability to think Students on cognitive and Science Process Skills in the psychomotor.

  13. Quantitative Decision Making Model for Carbon Reduction in Road Construction Projects Using Green Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woosik Jang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Numerous countries have established policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and have suggested goals pertaining to these reductions. To reach the target reduction amounts, studies on the reduction of carbon emissions have been conducted with regard to all stages and processes in construction projects. According to a study on carbon emissions, the carbon emissions generated during the construction stage of road projects account for approximately 76 to 86% of the total carbon emissions, far exceeding the other stages, such as maintenance or demolition. Therefore, this study aims to develop a quantitative decision making model that supports the application of green technologies (GTs to reduce carbon emissions during the construction stage of road construction projects. First, the authors selected environmental soundness, economic feasibility and constructability as the key assessment indices for evaluating 20 GTs. Second, a fuzzy set/qualitative comparative analysis (FS/QCA was used to establish an objective decision-making model for the assessment of both the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the key indices. To support the developed model, an expert survey was performed to assess the applicability of each GT from a practical perspective, which was verified with a case study using two additional GTs. The proposed model is expected to support practitioners in the application of suitable GTs to road projects and reduce carbon emissions, resulting in better decision making during road construction projects.

  14. A financing model to solve financial barriers for implementing green building projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sanghyo; Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained.

  15. A Financing Model to Solve Financial Barriers for Implementing Green Building Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

    2013-01-01

    Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained. PMID:24376379

  16. Atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdell, J.V.

    1991-07-01

    Radiation doses that may have resulted from operations at the Hanford Site are being estimated in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. One of the project subtasks, atmospheric transport, is responsible for estimating the transport, diffusion and deposition of radionuclides released to the atmosphere. This report discusses modeling transport and diffusion in the atmospheric pathway. It is divided into three major sections. The first section of the report presents the atmospheric modeling approach selected following discussion with the Technical Steering Panel that directs the HEDR Project. In addition, the section discusses the selection of the MESOI/MESORAD suite of atmospheric dispersion models that form the basis for initial calculations and future model development. The second section of the report describes alternative modeling approaches that were considered. Emphasis is placed on the family of plume and puff models that are based on Gaussian solution to the diffusion equations. The final portion of the section describes the performance of various models. The third section of the report discusses factors that bear on the selection of an atmospheric transport modeling approach for HEDR. These factors, which include the physical setting of the Hanford Site and the available meteorological data, serve as constraints on model selection. Five appendices are included in the report. 39 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  17. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Overview and Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Hatfield, J.; Jones, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.

    2012-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is an international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural economic modeling communities to generate probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. This presentation will describe the general approach of AgMIP and highlight its findings and activities. AgMIP crop model intercomparisons have been established for wheat (27 models participating), maize (25 models), and rice (15+ models), and are being established for sugarcane, soybean, sorghum/millet, and peanut. In coordination with these pilots, methodologies to utilize weather generators and downscaled climate simulations for agricultural applications are under development. An AgMIP global agricultural economics model intercomparison with participation of 11 international groups is ongoing, and a number of global biophysical models are currently being evaluated for future climate impacts on agricultural lands both as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) and for contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). AgMIP is also organizing regional research efforts, and has already held workshops in South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Europe, and North America. Outcomes from these meetings have informed AgMIP activities, and 10 research teams from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have been selected for project funding. Additional activities are planned for Australia and East Asia. As the AgMIP research community continues to work towards its goals, three key cross-cutting scientific challenges have emerged and are being

  18. INFORMATION MODELING OF LIFE CYCLE OF HIGH-RISE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gusakova Elena Aleksandrovna

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available To date, many years’ experience in the construction and operation of high-rise buildings has been accumulated. Its analysis reveals not only the engineering and organizational-technological specifics of such projects, but also systemic gaps in the field of management. In the implementation of large-scale and unique projects for high-rise buildings, the problems and tasks of improving approaches to managing the full life cycle of projects and methods, which will improve their competitiveness, become topical. The systems being used have largely exhausted their resource efficiency, which is associated with automation of traditional “inherited” processes and management structures, as well as development of IT-systems focused on digitalization of the activities of construction company, rather than the project. To solve these problems, it is proposed to carry out: reengineering of the schemes of information interaction between the project’s participants; formation of integrated digital environment for the life cycle of the project; development of systems for integrating data management and project management. Subject: problems, approaches and methods of digitalization of project’s life cycle management in relation to the specifics and features of high-rise buildings. Research objectives: substantiation of the most perspective approaches and methods of information modeling of high-rise construction as the basis for managing the full life cycle of the given project. Materials and methods: the experience of digitalization of design, construction, operation and development of high-rise buildings, presented in specialized literature, is analyzed. The methods for integrating information models of various stages of project’s life cycle and for information interaction of project’s participants are considered. Results: the concept of forming a single digital environment for the project is proposed, taking into account the features of the life

  19. Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

  20. A combined AHP-GP model to allocate internal auditing time to projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HA Kruger

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The optimal allocation of internal auditing time among competing projects is a multi-criteria problem that includes both qualitative and quantitative factors. This paper discusses an integrated approach where the analytic hierarchy process (AHP is used to deal with qualitative risk assessments and a goal programming (GP model to distribute available hours in such a way that risk is minimised. Additional considerations, such as maximum and minimum allowable project hours, risk reducing factors and risk levels, are also taken into account. Following a description of the models and framework, a brief case study is presented in which the framework was empirically evaluated.

  1. Models of Financing and Available Financial Resources for Transport Infrastructure Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Pokorná

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A typical feature of transport infrastructure projects is that they are expensive and take a long time to construct. Transport infrastructure financing has traditionally lain in the public domain. A tightening of many countries' budgets in recent times has led to an exploration of alternative resources for financing transport infrastructures. A variety of models and methods can be used in transport infrastructure project financing. The selection of the appropriate model should be done taking into account not only financial resources but also the distribution of construction and operating risks and the contractual relations between the stakeholders.

  2. Modelled and Observed Diurnal SST Signals: "SSTDV:R.EX.-IM.A.M." Project Preliminary Results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Høyer, Jacob; LeBorgne, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    This study presents some of the preliminary results from the ESA Support To Science Element (STSE) funded project on the Diurnal Variability of the Sea Surface Temperature, regarding its Regional Extend and Implications in Atmospheric Modelling (SSTDV:R.EX.–IM.A.M.). During this phase of the proj......This study presents some of the preliminary results from the ESA Support To Science Element (STSE) funded project on the Diurnal Variability of the Sea Surface Temperature, regarding its Regional Extend and Implications in Atmospheric Modelling (SSTDV:R.EX.–IM.A.M.). During this phase...

  3. Integrated Vehicle Health Management Project-Modeling and Simulation for Wireless Sensor Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallett, Thomas M.; Mueller, Carl H.; Griner, James H., Jr.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the efforts in modeling and simulating electromagnetic transmission and reception as in a wireless sensor network through a realistic wing model for the Integrated Vehicle Health Management project at the Glenn Research Center. A computer model in a standard format for an S-3 Viking aircraft was obtained, converted to a Microwave Studio software format, and scaled to proper dimensions in Microwave Studio. The left wing portion of the model was used with two antenna models, one transmitting and one receiving, to simulate radio frequency transmission through the wing. Transmission and reception results were inconclusive.

  4. Cardiac cell modelling: Observations from the heart of the cardiac physiome project

    KAUST Repository

    Fink, Martin; Niederer, Steven A.; Cherry, Elizabeth M.; Fenton, Flavio H.; Koivumä ki, Jussi T.; Seemann, Gunnar; Thul, Rü diger; Zhang, Henggui; Sachse, Frank B.; Beard, Dan; Crampin, Edmund J.; Smith, Nicolas P.

    2011-01-01

    In this manuscript we review the state of cardiac cell modelling in the context of international initiatives such as the IUPS Physiome and Virtual Physiological Human Projects, which aim to integrate computational models across scales and physics. In particular we focus on the relationship between experimental data and model parameterisation across a range of model types and cellular physiological systems. Finally, in the context of parameter identification and model reuse within the Cardiac Physiome, we suggest some future priority areas for this field. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Accuracy and performance of 3D mask models in optical projection lithography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agudelo, Viviana; Evanschitzky, Peter; Erdmann, Andreas; Fühner, Tim; Shao, Feng; Limmer, Steffen; Fey, Dietmar

    2011-04-01

    Different mask models have been compared: rigorous electromagnetic field (EMF) modeling, rigorous EMF modeling with decomposition techniques and the thin mask approach (Kirchhoff approach) to simulate optical diffraction from different mask patterns in projection systems for lithography. In addition, each rigorous model was tested for two different formulations for partially coherent imaging: The Hopkins assumption and rigorous simulation of mask diffraction orders for multiple illumination angles. The aim of this work is to closely approximate results of the rigorous EMF method by the thin mask model enhanced with pupil filtering techniques. The validity of this approach for different feature sizes, shapes and illumination conditions is investigated.

  6. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-01-01

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

  7. A Management Maturity Model (MMM for project-based organisational performance assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Langston

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Common sense suggests that organisations are more likely to deliver successful projects if they have systems in place that reflect a mature project environment based on a culture of continuous improvement. This paper develops and discusses a Management Maturity Model (MMM to assess the maturity of project management organisations through a customisable, systematic, strategic and practical methodology inspired from the seminal work of Darwin, Deming, Drucker and Daniel. The model presented is relevant to organisations, such as construction and engineering companies, that prefer to use the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK™ Guide published by the Project Management Institute (PMI, but without the disadvantages of excessive time and cost commitments and a ‘one size fits all’ approach linked to rigid increments of maturity. It offers a game-changing advance in the application of project-based organisational performance assessment compared to existing market solutions that are unnecessarily complex. The feasibility of MMM is field-tested using a medium-sized data centre infrastructure firm in Tehran.

  8. The Navruz Project: Cooperative transboundary monitoring data sharing and modeling of water resources in Central Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Passell, Howard David; Barber, David S.; Solodukhin, V.; Khazekhber, S.; Pozniak, V.; Vasiliev, I.; Alekhina, V.; Djuraev, Akram; Radyuk, R.; Suozzi, D.

    2006-01-01

    The Navruz Project engages scientists from nuclear physics research institutes and water science institutions in the Central Asia Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and Sandia National Laboratories. The project uses standardized methods to monitor basic water quality parameters, radionuclides, and metals in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers. Phase I of the project was initiated in 2000 with 15 sampling points in each of the four countries with sample analysis performed for over 100 parameters. Phase II of the project began in 2003 and expanded sampling to include at least 30 points in each country in an effort to characterize ''hot spots'' and to identify sources. Phase III of the project began in 2006 and will integrate decision support modeling with the existing monitoring. Overall, the project addresses four main goals: to create collaboration among Central Asian scientists and countries; to help increase capabilities in Central Asian nations for sustainable water resources management; to provide a scientific basis for supporting nuclear transparency and nonproliferation in the region; and to help reduce the threat of conflict in Central Asia over water resources. Contamination of these rivers is a result of growing population, urbanization, and agricultural activities, as well as radioactive contamination from a legacy of uranium mining and related activities of the former Soviet Union. The project focuses on waterborne radionuclides and metals because of the importance of these contaminants to public health and political stability in Central Asia.

  9. Acceleration and Counteraction of Changes in Vegetation Seasonality and Patterns using CMIP5 Projections from Different ESMs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; De Noblet-Decoudre, N.

    2017-12-01

    Most climatological studies characterize future climate change as the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future. Considering the pace of future climate change is however of major importance, since it may strongly influence how we experience climate hazards. To complement previous work related to the pace of temperature and precipitation changes, we propose here to study how fast vegetation seasonality and patterns of climate change evolve in different future configurations according to CMIP5 simulations of several Earth system models. The pace is defined as the difference in relevant metrics between two successive 20-year periods, i.e. with a continually moving baseline. Shifts of vegetation groups and changes in the characteristics of the seasonal cycle are considered. Both accelerate in close relationship with the warming rate regardless of the selected scenario, but they balance each other out, especially for trees in northern mid- and high-latitudes. Efforts are nevertheless strongly needed to harmonize the representation of vegetation in new versions of model inter-comparison projects, in order to properly conduct multi-model analyses related to vegetation changes.

  10. Disease management projects and the Chronic Care Model in action: baseline qualitative research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Bethany Hipple; Adams, Samantha A; Nieboer, Anna P; Bal, Roland

    2012-05-11

    Disease management programs, especially those based on the Chronic Care Model (CCM), are increasingly common in The Netherlands. While disease management programs have been well-researched quantitatively and economically, less qualitative research has been done. The overall aim of the study is to explore how disease management programs are implemented within primary care settings in The Netherlands; this paper focuses on the early development and implementation stages of five disease management programs in the primary care setting, based on interviews with project leadership teams. Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted at the five selected sites with sixteen professionals interviewed; all project directors and managers were interviewed. The interviews focused on each project's chosen chronic illness (diabetes, eating disorders, COPD, multi-morbidity, CVRM) and project plan, barriers to development and implementation, the project leaders' action and reactions, as well as their roles and responsibilities, and disease management strategies. Analysis was inductive and interpretive, based on the content of the interviews. After analysis, the results of this research on disease management programs and the Chronic Care Model are viewed from a traveling technology framework. This analysis uncovered four themes that can be mapped to disease management and the Chronic Care Model: (1) changing the health care system, (2) patient-centered care, (3) technological systems and barriers, and (4) integrating projects into the larger system. Project leaders discussed the paths, both direct and indirect, for transforming the health care system to one that addresses chronic illness. Patient-centered care was highlighted as needed and a paradigm shift for many. Challenges with technological systems were pervasive. Project leaders managed the expenses of a traveling technology, including the social, financial, and administration involved. At the sites, project leaders served

  11. Energy Utilization Evaluation of Carbon Performance in Public Projects by FAHP and Cloud Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Li

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available With the low-carbon economy advocated all over the world, how to use energy reasonably and efficiently in public projects has become a major issue. It has brought many open questions, including which method is more reasonable in evaluating the energy utilization of carbon performance in public projects when the evaluation information is fuzzy; whether an indicator system can be constructed; and which indicators have more impact on carbon performance. This article aims to solve these problems. We propose a new carbon performance evaluation system for energy utilization based on project processes (design, construction, and operation. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP is used to accumulate the indicator weights and cloud model is incorporated when the indicator value is fuzzy. Finally, we apply our indicator system to a case study of the Xiangjiang River project in China, which demonstrates the applicability and efficiency of our method.

  12. The Hybrid Management Model: Influences of Organizational Structure and IT Project Management Practices on the Performance of Federal IT Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, Celine A.

    2012-01-01

    The federal government spends much money on information technology (IT) projects each year, yet numerous IT projects continue to underperform. For instance, in Fiscal Year 2008, OMB and federal agencies identified approximately 413 IT projects ($25.2 billion) as being poorly planned, poorly performing, or both. Agencies struggle to implement sound…

  13. Reducing Spread in Climate Model Projections of a September Ice-Free Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiping; Song, Mirong; Horton, Radley M.; Hu, Yongyun

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to approx. 1.7 million sq km in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million sq km) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to approx.1.7 million sq km in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

  14. Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

    2014-05-01

    Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the

  15. Research on evaluating water resource resilience based on projection pursuit classification model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dong; Zhao, Dan; Liang, Xu; Wu, Qiuchen

    2016-03-01

    Water is a fundamental natural resource while agriculture water guarantees the grain output, which shows that the utilization and management of water resource have a significant practical meaning. Regional agricultural water resource system features with unpredictable, self-organization, and non-linear which lays a certain difficulty on the evaluation of regional agriculture water resource resilience. The current research on water resource resilience remains to focus on qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis is still in the primary stage, thus, according to the above issues, projection pursuit classification model is brought forward. With the help of artificial fish-swarm algorithm (AFSA), it optimizes the projection index function, seeks for the optimal projection direction, and improves AFSA with the application of self-adaptive artificial fish step and crowding factor. Taking Hongxinglong Administration of Heilongjiang as the research base and on the basis of improving AFSA, it established the evaluation of projection pursuit classification model to agriculture water resource system resilience besides the proceeding analysis of projection pursuit classification model on accelerating genetic algorithm. The research shows that the water resource resilience of Hongxinglong is the best than Raohe Farm, and the last 597 Farm. And the further analysis shows that the key driving factors influencing agricultural water resource resilience are precipitation and agriculture water consumption. The research result reveals the restoring situation of the local water resource system, providing foundation for agriculture water resource management.

  16. Liquidus Projection and Thermodynamic Modeling of a Sn-Ag-Zn System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Sinn-wen; Chiu, Wan-ting; Gierlotka, Wojciech; Chang, Jui-shen; Wang, Chao-hong

    2017-12-01

    Sn-Ag-Zn alloys are promising Pb-free solders. In this study, the Sn-Ag-Zn liquidus projection was determined, and the Sn-Ag-Zn thermodynamic modeling was developed. Various Sn-Ag-Zn alloys were prepared. Their as-cast microstructures and primary solidification phases were examined. The invariant reaction temperatures of the ternary Sn-Ag-Zn system were determined. The liquidus projection of the Sn-Ag-Zn ternary system was constructed. It was found that the Sn-Ag-Zn ternary system has eight primary solidification phases: ɛ2-AgZn3, γ-Ag5Zn8, β-AgZn, ζ-Ag4Sn, (Ag), ɛ1-Ag3Sn, β-(Sn) and (Zn) phases. There are eight ternary invariant reactions, and the liquid + (Ag) = β-AgZn + ζ-Ag4Sn reaction is of the highest temperature at 935.5 K. Thermodynamic modeling of the ternary Sn-Ag-Zn system was also carried out in this study based on the thermodynamic models of the three constituent binary systems and the experimentally determined liquidus projection. The liquidus projection and the isothermal sections are calculated. The calculated and experimentally determined liquidus projections are in good agreement.

  17. Respiratory compensation in projection imaging using a magnification and displacement model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crawford, C.R.; King, K.F.; Ritchie, C.J.; Godwin, J.D.

    1996-01-01

    Respiratory motion during the collection of computed tomography (CT) projections generates structured artifacts and a loss of resolution that can render the scans unusable. This motion is problematic in scans of those patients who cannot suspend respiration, such as the very young or incubated patients. In this paper, the authors present an algorithm that can be used to reduce motion artifacts in CT scans caused by respiration. An approximate model for the effect of respiration is that the object cross section under interrogation experiences time-varying magnification and displacement along two axes. Using this model an exact filtered backprojection algorithm is derived for the case of parallel projections. The result is extended to generate an approximate reconstruction formula for fan-beam projections. Computer simulations and scans of phantoms on a commercial CT scanner validate the new reconstruction algorithms for parallel and fan-beam projections. Significant reduction in respiratory artifacts is demonstrated clinically when the motion model is satisfied. The method can be applied to projection data used in CT single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), positron emission tomography (PET), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)

  18. Projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources: A critical review of the suite of modelling approaches used in the large European project VECTORS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peck, Myron A.; Arvanitidis, Christos; Butenschön, Momme; Canu, Donata Melaku; Chatzinikolaou, Eva; Cucco, Andrea; Domenici, Paolo; Fernandes, Jose A.; Gasche, Loic; Huebert, Klaus B.; Hufnagl, Marc; Jones, Miranda C.; Kempf, Alexander; Keyl, Friedemann; Maar, Marie; Mahévas, Stéphanie; Marchal, Paul; Nicolas, Delphine; Pinnegar, John K.; Rivot, Etienne; Rochette, Sébastien; Sell, Anne F.; Sinerchia, Matteo; Solidoro, Cosimo; Somerfield, Paul J.; Teal, Lorna R.; Travers-trolet, Morgan; De Wolfshaar, Van Karen E.

    2018-01-01

    We review and compare four broad categories of spatially-explicit modelling approaches currently used to understand and project changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources including: 1) statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of

  19. An Application of the PMI Model at the Project Level: Evaluation of the ESEA Title IV C Fresh Start Minischool Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Patricia C.

    The Planning, Monitoring, and Implementation Model (PMI) was developed to provide a model for systematic evaluation of educational programs to determine their effectiveness in achieving goals and objectives. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the PMI model at the project level. Fresh Start Minischool at Ballou High School (District of…

  20. What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

    2014-09-01

    Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.