WorldWideScience

Sample records for model integrating global

  1. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-07-08

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E{sup 3}) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term ({approximately}2,100) context. The E{sup 3} model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E{sup 3} area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E{sup 3} model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E{sup 3} model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E{sup 3} study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E{sup 3} model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project.

  2. Violence Against Women: Globalizing the Integrated Ecological Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulu, Emma; Miedema, Stephanie

    2015-12-01

    Globalization theories have proliferated over the past two decades. However, global developments have yet to be systematically incorporated into theories around violence against women. This article proposes to add a global level to the existing ecological model framework, popularized by Lori Heise in 1998, to explore the relationships between global processes and experiences of violence against women. Data from the Maldives and Cambodia are used to assess how globalized ideologies, economic development and integration, religious fundamentalisms, and global cultural exchange, as components of a larger globalization process, have affected men and women's experiences and perceptions of violence against women.

  3. Toward an Integrative Model of Global Business Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin

    fragmentation-integration-fragmentation-integration upward spiral. In response to the call for integrative approach to strategic management research, we propose an integrative model of global business strategy that aims at integrating not only strategy and IB but also the different paradigms within the strategy......In this paper, we first review the development of the strategy field by introducing Hoskisson et al.’s (1999) notion of ‘swings of a pendulum’. With problematization of this notion, we then offer an alternative interpretation of the advancement of strategy knowledge, namely, a recursive...

  4. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  5. Integration of nitrogen dynamics into a global terrestrial ecosystem model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xiaojuan [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; Wittig, Victoria [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; Jain, Atul [University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign; Post, Wilfred M [ORNL

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive model of terrestrial N dynamics has been developed and coupled with the geographically explicit terrestrial C cycle component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM). The coupled C-N cycle model represents all the major processes in the N cycle and all major interactions between C and N that affect plant productivity and soil and litter decomposition. Observations from the LIDET data set were compiled for calibration and evaluation of the decomposition submodel within ISAM. For aboveground decomposition, the calibration is accomplished by optimizing parameters related to four processes: the partitioning of leaf litter between metabolic and structural material, the effect of lignin on decomposition, the climate control on decomposition and N mineralization and immobilization. For belowground decomposition, the calibrated processes include the partitioning of root litter between decomposable and resistant material as a function of litter quality, N mineralization and immobilization. The calibrated model successfully captured both the C and N dynamics during decomposition for all major biomes and a wide range of climate conditions. Model results show that net N immobilization and mineralization during litter decomposition are dominantly controlled by initial N concentration of litter and the mass remaining during decomposition. The highest and lowest soil organicNstorage are in tundra (1.24 KgNm2) and desert soil (0.06 Kg N m2). The vegetation N storage is highest in tropical forests (0.5 Kg N m2), and lowest in tundra and desert (<0.03 Kg N m2). N uptake by vegetation is highest in warm and moist regions, and lowest in cold and dry regions. Higher rates of N leaching are found in tropical regions and subtropical regions where soil moisture is higher. The global patterns of vegetation and soil N, N uptake and N leaching estimated with ISAM are consistent with measurements and previous modeling studies. This gives us confidence that ISAM

  6. Model-data integration to improve the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thurner, Martin; von Bloh, Werner; Dorigo, Wouter; Carvalhais, Nuno

    2017-04-01

    Dynamic global vegetation models show large uncertainties regarding the development of the land carbon balance under future climate change conditions. This uncertainty is partly caused by differences in how vegetation carbon turnover is represented in global vegetation models. Model-data integration approaches might help to systematically assess and improve model performances and thus to potentially reduce the uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses under future climate change. Here we present several applications of model-data integration with the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) dynamic global vegetation model to systematically improve the representation of processes or to estimate model parameters. In a first application, we used global satellite-derived datasets of FAPAR (fraction of absorbed photosynthetic activity), albedo and gross primary production to estimate phenology- and productivity-related model parameters using a genetic optimization algorithm. Thereby we identified major limitations of the phenology module and implemented an alternative empirical phenology model. The new phenology module and optimized model parameters resulted in a better performance of LPJmL in representing global spatial patterns of biomass, tree cover, and the temporal dynamic of atmospheric CO2. Therefore, we used in a second application additionally global datasets of biomass and land cover to estimate model parameters that control vegetation establishment and mortality. The results demonstrate the ability to improve simulations of vegetation dynamics but also highlight the need to improve the representation of mortality processes in dynamic global vegetation models. In a third application, we used multiple site-level observations of ecosystem carbon and water exchange, biomass and soil organic carbon to jointly estimate various model parameters that control ecosystem dynamics. This exercise demonstrates the strong role of individual data streams on the

  7. The Global Modeling Initiative Assessment Model: Model Description, Integration and Testing of the Transport Shell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rotman, D.A.; Tannahill, J.R.; Kinnison, D.E.; Connell, P.S.; Bergmann, D.; Proctor, D.; Rodriquez, J.M.; Lin, S.J.; Rood, R.B.; Prather, M.J.; Rasch, P.J.; Considine, D.B.; Ramaroson, R.; Kawa, S.R.

    2000-04-25

    We describe the three dimensional global stratospheric chemistry model developed under the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) to assess the possible environmental consequences from the emissions of a fleet of proposed high speed civil transport aircraft. This model was developed through a unique collaboration of the members of the GMI team. Team members provided computational modules representing various physical and chemical processes, and analysis of simulation results through extensive comparison to observation. The team members' modules were integrated within a computational framework that allowed transportability and simulations on massively parallel computers. A unique aspect of this model framework is the ability to interchange and intercompare different submodules to assess the sensitivity of numerical algorithms and model assumptions to simulation results. In this paper, we discuss the important attributes of the GMI effort, describe the GMI model computational framework and the numerical modules representing physical and chemical processes. As an application of the concept, we illustrate an analysis of the impact of advection algorithms on the dispersion of a NO{sub y}-like source in the stratosphere which mimics that of a fleet of commercial supersonic transports (High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT)) flying between 17 and 20 kilometers.

  8. Modeling Cancer Metastasis using Global, Quantitative and Integrative Network Biology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoof, Erwin; Erler, Janine

    phosphorylation dynamics in a given biological sample. In Chapter III, we move into Integrative Network Biology, where, by combining two fundamental technologies (MS & NGS), we can obtain more in-depth insights into the links between cellular phenotype and genotype. Article 4 describes the proof...... cancer networks using Network Biology. Technologies key to this, such as Mass Spectrometry (MS), Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) and High-Content Screening (HCS) are briefly described. In Chapter II, we cover how signaling networks and mutational data can be modeled in order to gain a better...

  9. Anthropogenic climate change in an integrated energy balance model of global and urban warming

    OpenAIRE

    Sato, Kimitoshi

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an integrated energy balance model of global and urban warming in the attributes/functionings framework à la Gorman-Lancaster-Sen and proposes a Global Warming Function and an Urban Warming Function. Also presented is a concept of Heat Island Integral, which measures the difference of anthropogenic heat stocks between two regions. The model involves residents, producers such as offices and manufacturers, and landscape gardeners who play a very important role in cooling dow...

  10. Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Evan G. R.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2011-06-01

    Awareness of increasing water scarcity has driven efforts to model global water resources for improved insight into water resources infrastructure and management strategies. Most water resources models focus explicitly on water systems and represent socio-economic and environmental change as external drivers. In contrast, the system dynamics-based integrated assessment model employed here, ANEMI, incorporates dynamic representations of these systems, so that their broader changes affect and are affected by water resources systems through feedbacks. Sectors in ANEMI therefore include the global climate system, carbon cycle, economy, population, land use and agriculture, and novel versions of the hydrological cycle, global water use and water quality. Since the model focus is on their interconnections through explicit nonlinear feedbacks, simulations with ANEMI provide insight into the nature and structure of connections between water resources and socio-economic and environmental change. Of particular interest to water resources researchers and modelers will be the simulated effects of a new water stress definition that incorporates both water quality and water quantity effects into the measurement of water scarcity. Five simulation runs demonstrate the value of wastewater treatment and reuse programs and the feedback-effects of irrigated agriculture and greater consumption of animal products.

  11. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  12. European Integration and Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Bobica

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available According to many, the term globalization is able to explain any phenomenon whatsoever, be it positive or negative, that takes place within the global social system. It seems like a sort of magical formula, which is to be found in the speeches of all sorts of people, be they economists, politicians, businessmen or sociologists. However this magical formula of globalization has its limitations, since it encompasses a certain amount of quibbling, beyond which not many can pass. In the context of globalization there appears the question on its role in the process of European integration. Is European integration a part of this global process or, quite on the contrary, does it present certain distinctive features, as it moulds itself differently from the globalization phenomenon? A clear-cut answer seems difficult because of the various aspects involved. Not only the general phenomenon of globalization, but also the economic integration on European level is based on the liberalization of markets and on the opening of national economies towards the exterior,having as direct consequence the intensification of trade exchanges. If from a global point of view one may talk of a market fundamentalism in that the market principles know no boundary, European integration on the other hand implies not only market economy, but also a guided and monitored action of Member Statesaccording to the needs of the whole entity, also taking into consideration - as far as possible – all aspects and consequences on social level.

  13. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 2: Applications and assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3 and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately −11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to

  14. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU WenBin; YANG Peng; MENG ChaoYing; SHIBASAKI Ryosuke; ZHOU QingBo; TANG HuaJun; SHI Yun

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions,while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally,the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline.The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  15. Improving the Projections of Vegetation Biogeography by Integrating Climate Envelope Models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Case, M. J.; Kim, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing changes in vegetation is increasingly important for conservation planning in the face of climate change. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are important tools for assessing such changes. DGVMs have been applied at regional scales to create projections of range expansions and contractions of plant functional types. Many DGVMs use a number of algorithms to determine the biogeography of plant functional types. One such DGVM, MC2, uses a series of decision trees based on bioclimatic thresholds while others, such as LPJ, use constraining emergent properties with a limited set of bioclimatic threshold-based rules. Although both approaches have been used widely, we demonstrate that these biogeography outputs perform poorly at continental scales when compared to existing potential vegetation maps. Specifically, we found that with MC2, the algorithm for determining leaf physiognomy is too simplistic to capture arid and semi-arid vegetation in much of the western U.S., as well as is the algorithm for determining the broadleaf and needleleaf mix in the Southeast. With LPJ, we found that the bioclimatic thresholds used to allow seedling establishment are too broad and fail to capture regional-scale biogeography of the plant functional types. In response, we demonstrate a new approach to determining the biogeography of plant functional types by integrating the climatic thresholds produced for individual tree species by a series of climate envelope models with the biogeography algorithms of MC2 and LPJ. Using this approach, we find that MC2 and LPJ perform considerably better when compared to potential vegetation maps.

  16. Integrating remote sensing, geographic information systems and global positioning system techniques with hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Jay Krishna; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Ekanthalu, Vicky Shettigondahalli

    2017-07-01

    Integration of remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning system (GPS) are emerging research areas in the field of groundwater hydrology, resource management, environmental monitoring and during emergency response. Recent advancements in the fields of RS, GIS, GPS and higher level of computation will help in providing and handling a range of data simultaneously in a time- and cost-efficient manner. This review paper deals with hydrological modeling, uses of remote sensing and GIS in hydrological modeling, models of integrations and their need and in last the conclusion. After dealing with these issues conceptually and technically, we can develop better methods and novel approaches to handle large data sets and in a better way to communicate information related with rapidly decreasing societal resources, i.e. groundwater.

  17. Modeling for planetary boundaries: a network analysis of representations of complex human-environmental interactions in integrated global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Johannes; Fetzer, Ingo; Cornell, Sarah

    2016-04-01

    The planetary boundaries framework is an approach to global sustainability that emphasises non-linear threshold behavior in anthropogenically perturbed Earth system processes. However, knowledge about the characteristics and positions of thresholds, and the scope for management of the boundaries is not well established. Global integrated models can help to improve this understanding, by reflecting the complex feedbacks between human and environmental systems. This study analyses the current state of integrated models with regard to the main processes identified as 'critical Earth system processes' in the planetary boundaries framework, and identifies gaps and suggests priorities for future improvements. Our approach involves creating a common ontology of model descriptions, and performing a network analysis on the state of system integration in models. The distinct clusters of specific biophysical and social-economic systems obviously has enabled progress in those specific areas of global change, but it now constrains analysis of important human-driven Earth system dynamics. The modeling process therefore has to be improved through technical integration, scientific gap-filling, and also changes in scientific institutional dynamics. Combined, this can advance model potentials that may help us to find sustainable pathways within planetary boundaries.

  18. Estimating European soil organic carbon mitigation potential in a global integrated land use model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Stefan; Böttcher, Hannes; Schneider, Uwe; Schmid, Erwin; Havlík, Petr

    2013-04-01

    Several studies have shown the dynamic interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration rates, soil management decisions and SOC levels. Management practices such as reduced and no-tillage, improved residue management and crop rotations as well as the conversion of marginal cropland to native vegetation or conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland offer the potential to increase SOC content. Even though dynamic interactions are widely acknowledged in literature, they have not been implemented in most existing land use decision models. A major obstacle is the high data and computing requirements for an explicit representation of alternative land use sequences since a model has to be able to track all different management decision paths. To our knowledge no study accounted so far for SOC dynamics explicitly in a global integrated land use model. To overcome these conceptual difficulties described above we apply an approach capable of accounting for SOC dynamics in GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model), a global recursive dynamic partial equilibrium bottom-up model integrating the agricultural, bioenergy and forestry sectors. GLOBIOM represents all major land based sectors and therefore is able to account for direct and indirect effects of land use change as well as leakage effects (e.g. through trade) implicitly. Together with the detailed representation of technologies (e.g. tillage and fertilizer management systems), these characteristics make the model a highly valuable tool for assessing European SOC emissions and mitigation potential. Demand and international trade are represented in this version of the model at the level of 27 EU member states and 23 aggregated world regions outside Europe. Changes in the demand on the one side, and profitability of the different land based activities on the other side, are the major determinants of land use change in GLOBIOM. In this paper we estimate SOC emissions from cropland for the EU until

  19. Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kandlikar, M.

    1994-12-01

    In this thesis tools of data reconciliation are used to integrate available information into scientific and policy models of greenhouse gases. The role of uncertainties in scientific and policy models of global climate change is examined, and implications for global change policy are drawn. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Global sources and sinks of methane have significant uncertainties. A chance constrained methodology was developed and used to perform inversions on the global methane cycle. Budgets of methane that are consistent with source fluxes, isotopic and ice core measurements were determined. While it is not possible to come up with a single budget for CH{sub 4}, performing the calculation with a number of sets of assumed priors suggests a convergence in the allowed range for sources. In some cases -- wetlands (70-130 Tg/yr), rice paddies (60-125 Tg/yr) a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the source estimate is achieved. Our results compare favorably with the most recent measurements of flux estimates. For comparison, a similar analysis using bayes monte carlo simulation was performed. The question of the missing sink for carbon remains unresolved. Two analyses that attempt to quantify the missing sink were performed. First, a steady state analysis of the carbon cycle was used to determine the pre-industrial inter-hemispheric carbon concentration gradient. Second, a full blown dynamic inversion of the carbon cycle was performed. An advection diffusion ocean model with surface chemistry, coupled to box models of the atmosphere and the biosphere was inverted to fit available measurements of {sup 12}C and {sup 14}C carbon isotopes using Differential-Algebraic Optimization. The model effectively suggests that the {open_quotes}missing{close_quotes} sink for carbon is hiding in the biosphere. Scenario dependent trace gas indices were calculated for CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, HCFC-22.

  20. From terrestrial to aquatic fluxes: Integrating stream dynamics within a dynamic global vegetation modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoy, Jerad; Poulter, Benjamin; Emmett, Kristen; Cross, Molly; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Maneta, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Integrated terrestrial ecosystem models simulate the dynamics and feedbacks between climate, vegetation, disturbance, and hydrology and are used to better understand biogeography and biogeochemical cycles. Extending dynamic vegetation models to the aquatic interface requires coupling surface and sub-surface runoff to catchment routing schemes and has the potential to enhance how researchers and managers investigate how changes in the environment might impact the availability of water resources for human and natural systems. In an effort towards creating such a coupled model, we developed catchment-based hydrologic routing and stream temperature model to pair with LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic global vegetation model. LPJ-GUESS simulates detailed stand-level vegetation dynamics such as growth, carbon allocation, and mortality, as well as various physical and hydrologic processes such as canopy interception and through-fall, and can be applied at small spatial scales, i.e., 1 km. We demonstrate how the coupled model can be used to investigate the effects of transient vegetation dynamics and CO2 on seasonal and annual stream discharge and temperature regimes. As a direct management application, we extend the modeling framework to predict habitat suitability for fish habitat within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, a 200,000 km2 region that provides critical habitat for a range of aquatic species. The model is used to evaluate, quantitatively, the effects of management practices aimed to enhance hydrologic resilience to climate change, and benefits for water storage and fish habitat in the coming century.

  1. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude. This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2, an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less

  2. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shirakawa, N.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

    2008-07-01

    To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude). This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less than ±1 mo in 19 of the 27

  3. An Improved Global Wind Resource Estimate for Integrated Assessment Models: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Gleason, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hettinger, Dylan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Heimiller, Donna [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-02-01

    This paper summarizes initial steps to improving the robustness and accuracy of global renewable resource and techno-economic assessments for use in integrated assessment models. We outline a method to construct country-level wind resource supply curves, delineated by resource quality and other parameters. Using mesoscale reanalysis data, we generate estimates for wind quality, both terrestrial and offshore, across the globe. Because not all land or water area is suitable for development, appropriate database layers provide exclusions to reduce the total resource to its technical potential. We expand upon estimates from related studies by: using a globally consistent data source of uniquely detailed wind speed characterizations; assuming a non-constant coefficient of performance for adjusting power curves for altitude; categorizing the distance from resource sites to the electric power grid; and characterizing offshore exclusions on the basis of sea ice concentrations. The product, then, is technical potential by country, classified by resource quality as determined by net capacity factor. Additional classifications dimensions are available, including distance to transmission networks for terrestrial wind and distance to shore and water depth for offshore. We estimate the total global wind generation potential of 560 PWh for terrestrial wind with 90% of resource classified as low-to-mid quality, and 315 PWh for offshore wind with 67% classified as mid-to-high quality. These estimates are based on 3.5 MW composite wind turbines with 90 m hub heights, 0.95 availability, 90% array efficiency, and 5 MW/km2 deployment density in non-excluded areas. We compare the underlying technical assumption and results with other global assessments.

  4. The MIT Integrated Global System Model: A facility for Assessing and Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinn, R. G.

    2013-12-01

    The world is facing major challenges that create tensions between human development and environmental sustenance. In facing these challenges, computer models are invaluable tools for addressing the need for probabilistic approaches to forecasting. To illustrate this, I use the MIT Integrated Global System Model framework (IGSM; http://globalchange.mit.edu ). The IGSM consists of a set of coupled sub-models of global economic and technological development and resultant emissions, and physical, dynamical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, land, ocean and ecosystems (natural and managed). Some of the sub-models have both complex and simplified versions available, with the choice of which version to use being guided by the questions being addressed. Some sub-models (e.g.urban air pollution) are reduced forms of complex ones created by probabilistic collocation with polynomial chaos bases. Given the significant uncertainties in the model components, it is highly desirable that forecasts be probabilistic. We achieve this by running 400-member ensembles (Latin hypercube sampling) with different choices for key uncertain variables and processes within the human and natural system model components (pdfs of inputs estimated by model-observation comparisons, literature surveys, or expert elicitation). The IGSM has recently been used for probabilistic forecasts of climate, each using 400-member ensembles: one ensemble assumes no explicit climate mitigation policy and others assume increasingly stringent policies involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels. These forecasts indicate clearly that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The value of such probability analyses for policy decision-making lies in their ability to compare relative (not just absolute) risks of various policies, which are less affected by the earth system model uncertainties. Given the uncertainties in forecasts, it is also clear that

  5. Management model of productive capacity: integrating theory of constraints and the global operational efficiency index (IROG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Augusto Pacheco

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of management capacity in productive systems integrating the concepts of the Theory of Constraints and Total Productive Maintenance (TPM. The main objective of this study is to discuss and propose a model of management capacity, able to answer the following key questions: i capacity indicators which should be considered and how to measure them to measure the productive capacity of manufacturing systems? ii what is the real productive capacity of the system analyzed under a determined relationship between capacity and demand? The discussion of the proposed model is relevant because the definition of productive capacity system enables better management of resources and capabilities, improve production scheduling on the factory floor and meeting the demands imposed by the market. This paper presents the proposition of using the Operating Income Index Global (IROG with a different approach from traditional literature dealing with the theme, presented by Nakajima (1988. The results of this paper enable to develop a model to determine the capacity of the production system and the impact on the productive capacity of the entire system, not to consider the quality conformances that occur after the bottleneck resource of the production flow.

  6. On Application of the Model of the Global Dimension of Regional Integration for Evaluating the Development of Eurasian Economic Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishkhanov Aleksandr Vladimirovich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses the need to study the integration processes of the Eurasian region in order to identify promising directions of its development. It is noted that most studies of this issue are dedicated to the economic aspect, but the analysis of the integration processes requires a comprehensive approach. The authors propose to use The Model of Global Dimension of Regional Integration (GDRI-Model – the methodology which takes into account the most important aspects of integration. This model was developed by Malaysian Professor M. Estrada. The general objective of the GDRI-Model is to offer policy-makers and researchers a new analytical tool for studying the evolution and the stages of any regional integration process in a global perspective. The presented model is not a forecasting one, but its use is not limited to a certain group of countries and regions. The authors note that some model criteria are not acceptable for the evaluation of Eurasian integration because of the specific features of the region. The adaptation of the model is based on theoretical analysis allowing to reveal separate directions of integration and its factors. At the same time, the flexibility of the proposed model makes it possible to adapt it to the conditions of the Eurasian Economic Union with the aim of its further application for the evaluation of integration development. It is concluded that the GDRI-Model is simple and universal, so it can act as a tool of Eurasian integration research to determine the stages of its development. After adaptation the presented model will also determine the feasibility of further convergence of national systems of economic union and the possibility of transition to monetary integration.

  7. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    We investigate antecedents and contingencies of location configurations supporting global delivery models (GDMs) in global outsourcing. GDMs are a new form of IT-enabled client-specific investment promoting services provision integration with clients by exploiting client proximity and time......-zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...... commoditized. Findings imply that coordination across time zones increasingly affects international operations in business-to-business and born-global industries....

  8. GLobal Integrated Design Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunkel, Matthew; McGuire, Melissa; Smith, David A.; Gefert, Leon P.

    2011-01-01

    The GLobal Integrated Design Environment (GLIDE) is a collaborative engineering application built to resolve the design session issues of real-time passing of data between multiple discipline experts in a collaborative environment. Utilizing Web protocols and multiple programming languages, GLIDE allows engineers to use the applications to which they are accustomed in this case, Excel to send and receive datasets via the Internet to a database-driven Web server. Traditionally, a collaborative design session consists of one or more engineers representing each discipline meeting together in a single location. The discipline leads exchange parameters and iterate through their respective processes to converge on an acceptable dataset. In cases in which the engineers are unable to meet, their parameters are passed via e-mail, telephone, facsimile, or even postal mail. The result of this slow process of data exchange would elongate a design session to weeks or even months. While the iterative process remains in place, software can now exchange parameters securely and efficiently, while at the same time allowing for much more information about a design session to be made available. GLIDE is written in a compilation of several programming languages, including REALbasic, PHP, and Microsoft Visual Basic. GLIDE client installers are available to download for both Microsoft Windows and Macintosh systems. The GLIDE client software is compatible with Microsoft Excel 2000 or later on Windows systems, and with Microsoft Excel X or later on Macintosh systems. GLIDE follows the Client-Server paradigm, transferring encrypted and compressed data via standard Web protocols. Currently, the engineers use Excel as a front end to the GLIDE Client, as many of their custom tools run in Excel.

  9. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush

    We investigate antecedents and contingencies of location configurations supporting global delivery models (GDMs) in global outsourcing. GDMs are a new form of IT-enabled client-specific investment promoting services provision integration with clients by exploiting client proximity and time......-zone spread allowing for 24/7 service delivery and access to resources. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent pools and speed of service delivery, and in particular when services are highly...

  10. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Møller Larsen, Marcus; Bharati, Pratyush M.

    2015-01-01

    Global delivery models (GDMs) are transforming the global IT and business process outsourcing industry. GDMs are a new form of client-specific investment promoting service integration with clients by combining client proximity with time-zone spread for 24/7 service operations. We investigate...... antecedents and contingencies of setting up GDM structures. Based on comprehensive data we show that providers are likely to establish GDM location configurations when clients value access to globally distributed talent and speed of service delivery, in particular when services are highly commoditized...

  11. The Global Food Price Crisis and China-World Rice Market Integration: A Spatial-Temporal Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xianglin; Romero-Aguilar, Randall S.; Chen, Shu-Ling; Miranda, Mario J.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we examine how China, the world’s largest rice producer and consumer, would affect the international rice market if it liberalized its trade in rice and became more fully integrated into the global rice market. The impacts of trade liberalization are estimated using a spatial-temporal rational expectations model of the world rice market characterized by four interdependent markets with stochastic production patterns, constant-elasticity demands, expected-profit maximizing priva...

  12. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    OpenAIRE

    Monier, E.; Scott, J R; A. P. Sokolov; C. E. Forest; C. A. Schlosser

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) inc...

  13. Decomposing passenger transport futures : Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelenbosch, O. Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/412493373; McCollum, D. L.; van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Bertram, C.; Carrara, S.; Daly, H.; Fujimori, S.; Kitous, A.; Kyle, P.; Ó Broin, E.; Karkatsoulis, P.; Sano, F.

    The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs

  14. [Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk: A new organisational model for global control of risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armario, P; Jericó, C; Vila, L; Freixa, R; Martin-Castillejos, C; Rotllan, M

    2016-11-17

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality that increases the cost of care. Currently there is a low degree of control of the main cardiovascular risk factors, although we have a good therapeutic arsenal. To achieve the improvement of this reality, a good coordination and multidisciplinary participation are essential. The development of new organizational models such as the Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk can facilitate the therapeutic harmonization and unification of the health messages offered by different levels of care, based on clinical practice guidelines, in order to provide patient-centred integrated care.

  15. Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu; Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kyle, Page; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall; Davies, Evan

    2016-01-22

    Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater sources and desalinated water—across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in IAMs and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.

  16. The educated citizen and global public health issues: One model for integration into the undergraduate curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosemary M. Caron

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Educated Citizen Initiative proposes that an understanding of public health issues is a core component of an educated citizenry and is essential to developing one’s societal responsibility. This initiative supports the Institute of Medicine’s recommendation that all undergraduates should have access to education in public health. Furthermore, the Liberal Education and America’s Promise (LEAP framework developed by the Association of American Colleges and Universities supports the integration of public health education into general and liberal education with an aim to produce an educated citizenry. The LEAP framework is implemented by teaching about the role of social determinants in a population’s health status; the significance of personal and social responsibility; and providing skills for inquiry, critical thinking, problem solving, and evaluation. This article describes one university’s experience in generating an educated citizenry cognizant of comprehensive public health conflicts, thus contributing to both a local and global perspective on learning.

  17. Integrating a Detailed Agricultural Model in a Global Economic Framework: New methods for assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Calvin, K.; Zhang, X.; Wise, M.; West, T. O.

    2010-12-01

    Climate change and food security are global issues increasingly linked through human decision making that takes place across all scales from on-farm management actions to international climate negotiations. Understanding how agricultural systems can respond to climate change, through mitigation or adaptation, while still supplying sufficient food to feed a growing global population, thus requires a multi-sector tool in a global economic framework. Integrated assessment models are one such tool, however they are typically driven by historical aggregate statistics of production in combination with exogenous assumptions of future trends in agricultural productivity; they are not yet capable of exploring agricultural management practices as climate adaptation or mitigation strategies. Yet there are agricultural models capable of detailed biophysical modeling of farm management and climate impacts on crop yield, soil erosion and C and greenhouse gas emissions, although these are typically applied at point scales that are incompatible with coarse resolution integrated assessment modeling. To combine the relative strengths of these modeling systems, we are using the agricultural model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), applied in a geographic data framework for regional analyses, to provide input to the global economic model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). The initial phase of our approach focuses on a pilot region of the Midwest United States, a highly productive agricultural area. We apply EPIC, a point based biophysical process model, at 60 m spatial resolution within this domain and aggregate the results to GCAM agriculture and land use subregions for the United States. GCAM is then initialized with multiple management options for key food and bioenergy crops. Using EPIC to distinguish these management options based on grain yield, residue yield, soil C change and cost differences, GCAM then simulates the optimum distribution of the available

  18. Global Sustainable Development Through the Integrated Lean Management (Green 5-S Model for TQM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Samuel K. M.

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Based on the 'Best Paper-2010' by the TQM Journal, the author has a chance to test out the model in a number of firms in Malaysia through SIRIM. Furthermore, riding on the success, SIRIM has named it as the SIRIM Green 5-S Model. As a result, the aim of this paper is to share the experience of the “SIRIM Green 5-S Model for Sustainable Development”. Since 1993, the author used the proprietary 5-S Checklist for training and consultancy in no less than 10 countries with over 50,000 persons from around 2,000 organisatioins world-wide. On the other hand, HKSAR takes the lead in the global oil energy consumption/GPD. The experience will be shared in this article.

  19. Emergence of long distance bird migrations: a new model integrating global climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louchart, Antoine

    2008-12-01

    During modern birds history, climatic and environmental conditions have evolved on wide scales. In a continuously changing world, landbirds annual migrations emerged and developed. However, models accounting for the origins of these avian migrations were formulated with static ecogeographic perspectives. Here I reviewed Cenozoic paleoclimatic and paleontological data relative to the palearctic paleotropical long distance (LD) migration system. This led to propose a new model for the origin of LD migrations, the ‘shifting home’ model (SHM). It is based on a dynamic perspective of climate evolution and may apply to the origins of most modern migrations. Non-migrant tropical African bird taxa were present at European latitudes during most of the Cenozoic. Their distribution limits shifted progressively toward modern tropical latitudes during periods of global cooling and increasing seasonality. In parallel, decreasing winter temperatures in the western Palearctic drove shifts of population winter ranges toward the equator. I propose that this induced the emergence of most short distance migrations, and in turn LD migrations. This model reconciliates ecologically tropical ancestry of most LD migrants with predominant winter range shifts, in accordance with requirements for heritable homing. In addition, it is more parsimonious than other non-exclusive models. Greater intrinsic plasticity of winter ranges implied by the SHM is supported by recently observed impacts of the present global warming on migrating birds. This may induce particular threats to some LD migrants. The ancestral, breeding homes of LD migrants were not ‘northern’ or ‘southern’ but shifted across high and middle latitudes while migrations emerged through winter range shifts themselves.

  20. New 3D parallel GILD electromagnetic modeling and nonlinear inversion using global magnetic integral and local differential equation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie, G.; Li, J.; Majer, E.; Zuo, D.

    1998-07-01

    This paper describes a new 3D parallel GILD electromagnetic (EM) modeling and nonlinear inversion algorithm. The algorithm consists of: (a) a new magnetic integral equation instead of the electric integral equation to solve the electromagnetic forward modeling and inverse problem; (b) a collocation finite element method for solving the magnetic integral and a Galerkin finite element method for the magnetic differential equations; (c) a nonlinear regularizing optimization method to make the inversion stable and of high resolution; and (d) a new parallel 3D modeling and inversion using a global integral and local differential domain decomposition technique (GILD). The new 3D nonlinear electromagnetic inversion has been tested with synthetic data and field data. The authors obtained very good imaging for the synthetic data and reasonable subsurface EM imaging for the field data. The parallel algorithm has high parallel efficiency over 90% and can be a parallel solver for elliptic, parabolic, and hyperbolic modeling and inversion. The parallel GILD algorithm can be extended to develop a high resolution and large scale seismic and hydrology modeling and inversion in the massively parallel computer.

  1. Overview of past, ongoing and future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, Erwan; Kicklighter, David; Sokolov, Andrei; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry; Reilly, John

    2016-04-01

    Northern Eurasia is both a major player in the global carbon budget (it includes roughly 70% of the Earth's boreal forest and more than two-thirds of the Earth's permafrost) and a region that has experienced dramatic climate change (increase in temperature, growing season length, floods and droughts) over the past century. Northern Eurasia has also undergone significant land-use change, both driven by human activity (including deforestation, expansion of agricultural lands and urbanization) and natural disturbances (such as wildfires and insect outbreaks). These large environmental and socioeconomic impacts have major implications for the carbon cycle in the region. Northern Eurasia is made up of a diverse set of ecosystems that range from tundra to forests, with significant areas of croplands and pastures as well as deserts, with major urban areas. As such, it represents a complex system with substantial challenges for the modeling community. In this presentation, we provide an overview of past, ongoing and possible future efforts of the integrated modeling of global change for Northern Eurasia. We review the variety of existing modeling approaches to investigate specific components of Earth system dynamics in the region. While there are a limited number of studies that try to integrate various aspects of the Earth system (through scale, teleconnections or processes), we point out that there are few systematic analyses of the various feedbacks within the Earth system (between components, regions or scale). As a result, there is a lack of knowledge of the relative importance of such feedbacks, and it is unclear how policy relevant current studies are that fail to account for these feedbacks. We review the role of Earth system models, and their advantages/limitations compared to detailed single component models. We further introduce the human activity system (global trade, economic models, demographic model and so on), the need for coupled human/earth system models

  2. ECCO version 4: an integrated framework for non-linear inverse modeling and global ocean state estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Forget

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework and its baseline solution for the evolving ocean state over the period 1992–2011. Both components are publicly available and subjected to regular, automated regression tests. The modeling framework includes sets of global conformal grids, a global model setup, implementations of data constraints and control parameters, an interface to algorithmic differentiation, as well as a grid-independent, fully capable Matlab toolbox. The baseline ECCO v4 solution is a dynamically consistent ocean state estimate without unidentified sources of heat and buoyancy, which any interested user will be able to reproduce accurately. The solution is an acceptable fit to most data and has been found to be physically plausible in many respects, as documented here and in related publications. Users are being provided with capabilities to assess model–data misfits for themselves. The synergy between modeling and data synthesis is asserted through the joint presentation of the modeling framework and the state estimate. In particular, the inverse estimate of parameterized physics was instrumental in improving the fit to the observed hydrography, and becomes an integral part of the ocean model setup available for general use. More generally, a first assessment of the relative importance of external, parametric and structural model errors is presented. Parametric and external model uncertainties appear to be of comparable importance and dominate over structural model uncertainty. The results generally underline the importance of including turbulent transport parameters in the inverse problem.

  3. ECCO version 4: an integrated framework for non-linear inverse modeling and global ocean state estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Forget

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework and its baseline solution for the evolving ocean state over the period 1992–2011. Both components are publicly available and highly integrated with the MITgcm. They are both subjected to regular, automated regression tests. The modeling framework includes sets of global conformal grids, a global model setup, implementations of model-data constraints and adjustable control parameters, an interface to algorithmic differentiation, as well as a grid-independent, fully capable Matlab toolbox. The reference ECCO v4 solution is a dynamically consistent ocean state estimate (ECCO-Production, release 1 without un-identified sources of heat and buoyancy, which any interested user will be able to reproduce accurately. The solution is an acceptable fit to most data and has been found physically plausible in many respects, as documented here and in related publications. Users are being provided with capabilities to assess model-data misfits for themselves. The synergy between modeling and data synthesis is asserted through the joint presentation of the modeling framework and the state estimate. In particular, the inverse estimate of parameterized physics was instrumental in improving the fit to the observed hydrography, and becomes an integral part of the ocean model setup available for general use. More generally, a first assessment of the relative importance of external, parametric and structural model errors is presented. Parametric and external model uncertainties appear to be of comparable importance and dominate over structural model uncertainty. The results generally underline the importance of including turbulent transport parameters in the inverse problem.

  4. New opportunities for integrating mechanisms into soil carbon models for global simulations (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; Contributions From: The Lake Constance Think Tank On Global Change; Feedback From Organic Carbon Dynamics-An Esf Workshop

    2010-12-01

    Numerical models of soil carbon cycling are being used to attribute carbon sinks, predict climate-ecosystem feedbacks, and evaluate climate mitigation strategies such as biofuels and sequestration. Current conceptions of SOC cycling and its expression in mathematical models rest heavily on the concept of recalcitrance - that some organic structures are intrinsically inert. However, recent research enabled by isotopic, spectroscopic, and molecular marker tools finds little evidence that recalcitrance, for example through selective preservation of plant derived material or resynthesis products, determines the long residence time of some OC in soils in a generalizable way. More likely, rates of carbon cycling are determined by the interaction of the organic matter and the soil environment including microorganisms, mineralogy, and climate. This does not mean compound chemistry is not important, rather that it does not act in isolation of other factors. Without the foundational principle that chemical composition defines the rate of decomposition, many tenets of old models are not supported, for example regarding decomposition response to change in temperature or plant species composition. Much progress could be made in the near term to improve soil carbon models by, for example, improving representations of oxygen diffusion and limitation, root carbon inputs, isotopic tracers, and making depth- or transport-related processes explicit. In other areas, new research is needed to translate recent findings into new parameters, for example, to replace texture with parameters for reactive mineral surface area to represent organo-mineral interaction. For the next generation of land model in the Community Earth System Model (was Community Climate System Model), we are developing new representations of many of these processes based on new data and understandings, to enable more accurate assessment of the vulnerability of soil organic carbon to predicted global climate change.

  5. Droplet number prediction uncertainties from CCN: an integrated assessment using observations and a global adjoint model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. H. Moore

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI chemical transport model with a cloud droplet parameterization adjoint to quantify the sensitivity of cloud droplet number concentration to uncertainties in predicting CCN concentrations. Published CCN closure prediction uncertainties for six different sets of simplifying compositional and mixing state assumptions are used as proxies for modeled CCN uncertainty arising from application of those scenarios. It is found that cloud droplet number concentrations are fairly insensitive to CCN-active aerosol number concentrations over the continents (∂Nd/∂Na ~ 10–30%, but the sensitivities exceed 70% in pristine regions such as the Alaskan Arctic and remote oceans. Since most of the anthropogenic indirect forcing is concentrated over the continents, this work shows that the application of Köhler theory and attendant simplifying assumptions in models is not a major source of uncertainty in predicting cloud droplet number or anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing for the liquid, stratiform clouds simulated in these models. However, it does highlight the sensitivity of some remote areas to pollution brought into the region via long-range transport (e.g. biomass burning or from seasonal biogenic sources (e.g. phytoplankton as a source of dimethylsulfide in the southern oceans. Since these transient processes are not captured well by the climatological emissions inventories employed by current large-scale models, the uncertainties in aerosol-cloud interactions during these events could be much larger than those uncovered here. This finding motivates additional measurements in these pristine regions, which have recieved little attention to date, in order to quantify the impact of, and uncertainty associated with, transient processes in effecting changes in cloud properties.

  6. Assessing the Benefits of Global Climate Stabilization Within an Integrated Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, R. H.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been a number of studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry. However, relatively few studies explore climate change impacts on both agriculture and forests simultaneously, including the interactions between alternative land uses and implications for market outcomes. Additionally, there is a lack of detailed analyses of the effects of stabilization scenarios relative to unabated emissions scenarios. Such analyses are important for developing estimates of the benefits of those stabilization scenarios, which can play a vital role in assessing tradeoffs associated with allocating resources across alternative mitigation and adaptation activities. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative

  7. Global Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rask, Morten

    insight from the literature about business models, international product policy, international entry modes and globalization into a conceptual model of relevant design elements of global business models, enabling global business model innovation to deal with differences in a downstream perspective...... regarding the customer interface and in an upstream perspective regarding the supply infrastructure. The paper offers a coherent conceptual dynamic meta-model of global business model innovation. Students, scholars and managers within the field of international business can use this conceptualization...... to understand, to study, and to create global business model innovation. Managerial and research implications draw on the developed ideal type of global business model innovation....

  8. Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

    2016-01-01

    The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

  9. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also

  10. The OpenMI - its Transformation From a Research Output to a Global Standard for the Integrated Modelling Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R.

    2008-12-01

    The pressure to take a more integrated approach both to science and to management increases by the day. At almost any scale from local to global, it is no longer possible to consider issues in isolation; to do so runs a high risk of creating more problems than are solved. The consequence of this situation is that there is strong encouragement in the scientific world not just to understand and to be able to predict the response of individual processes but also to predict how those processes will interact. The manager is similarly encouraged to think in the widest terms about the likely impact of any policy before it is implemented. A new reservoir may solve a water supply problem but will it adversely affect the fishing and hence the tourist trade? How will climate change impact biodiversity? Will the drugs for treating a flu pandemic adversely affect river water quality? One approach to predicting such impacts would be to create new models simulating more and more processes. This, however, is neither feasible nor useful and makes poor use of the huge investment in existing models. A better approach, with many additional benefits, would be to find a way of linking existing models and modelling components such as databases or visualisation systems. Against this background, the European Commission, as part of its research programme to facilitate the introduction of integrated water management, commissioned a community project to find a generic solution to the linking of simulation models at run time. The outcome of this work was the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI) standard and the creation of the OpenMI Association, an open, non-proprietary, not-for-profit, international organisation for its support. The work has received widespread recognition and encouragement from across the world, especially in the USA. A second phase is now building a community to continue the OpenMI's development and promote its use. The community's vision, mission and implementation strategy

  11. Xanthos - A Global Hydrologic Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xinya; Vernon, Christopher R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Link, Robert P.; Feng, Leyang; Liu, Yaling; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.

    2017-09-11

    Xanthos is a Python model designed to quantify and analyze global water availability historically and in the future at 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution and a monthly time step. Its performance and functionality was tested through real-world applications. It is open-source, extensible and accessible for researchers who work on long-term climate data for studies of global water supply, and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). This package integrates inherent global gridded data maps, I/O modules, hydrologic processes and diagnostics modules parameterized by a user-defined configuration file.

  12. Global optimization for integrated design and control of computationally expensive process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Egea, J.A.; Vries, D.; Alonso, A.A.; Banga, J.R.

    2007-01-01

    The problem of integrated design and control optimization of process plants is discussed in this paper. We consider it as a nonlinear programming problem subject to differential-algebraic constraints. This class of problems is frequently multimodal and "costly" (i.e., computationally expensive to ev

  13. Global optimization for integrated design and control of computationally expensive process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Egea, J.A.; Vries, D.; Alonso, A.A.; Banga, J.R.

    2007-01-01

    The problem of integrated design and control optimization of process plants is discussed in this paper. We consider it as a nonlinear programming problem subject to differential-algebraic constraints. This class of problems is frequently multimodal and "costly" (i.e., computationally expensive to ev

  14. Global energy futures: An integrated perspective with the TIME-model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries HJM de; Janssen MA; MNV

    1996-01-01

    In een eerder verschenen rapport werden de vijf submodellen van het energiemodel in detail beschreven. In dit rapport worden een aantal toepassingen met het (stand alone) TIME-model gepresenteerd. Het rapport beschrijft de kalibratie voor de wereld versie voor de periode 1900-1990. Gegeven de ex

  15. Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Over the North Pacific Ocean: an Integrated Assessment Using Aircraft, Satellites and a Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, E. M.; Mauger, G.; Lariviere, O.; Roberts, G.; Ramanathan, V.; Ming, Y.

    2004-12-01

    drop effective radius compare well with the in-situ measurements. To facilitate the integrated interpretation of these observations and test modern parameterizations of aerosol-cloud interactions in global models, simulations are performed with the NOAA/GFDL AM2 global atmospheric model under the conditions observed during CIFEX. The variability of observed radiative forcing of North Pacific cloud systems are compared with a simulation using a new parameterization based on a prognostic equation for cloud drop number concentration, and a separate simulation using a common diagnostic parameterization based on an empirical relationship between sulfate concentration and cloud drop number concentration.

  16. Characterizing the purple Earth: Modelling the globally-integrated spectral variability of the Archean Earth

    CERN Document Server

    Sanromá, E; Parenteau, M N; Kiang, N Y; Gutiérrez-Navarro, A M; López, R; Montañés-Rodríguez, P

    2013-01-01

    The ongoing searches for exoplanetary systems have revealed a wealth of planets with diverse physical properties. Planets even smaller than the Earth have already been detected, and the efforts of future missions are placed on the discovery, and perhaps characterization, of small rocky exoplanets within the habitable zone of their stars. Clearly what we know about our planet will be our guideline for the characterization of such planets. But the Earth has been inhabited for at least 3.8 Ga, and its appearance has changed with time. Here, we have studied the Earth during the Archean eon, 3.0 Ga ago. At that time one of the more widespread life forms on the planet were purple bacteria. These bacteria are photosynthetic microorganisms and can inhabit both aquatic and terrestrial environments. Here, we used a radiative transfer model to simulate the visible and near-IR radiation reflected by our planet, taking into account several scenarios regarding the possible distribution of purple bacteria over continents an...

  17. Modeling the globally-integrated spectral variability of the Archean Earth: The purple planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palle, E.; Sanroma, E.; Parenteau, M. N.; Kiang, N. Y.; Gutierrez-Navarro, A. M.; Lopez, R.; Montañes-Rodríguez, P.

    2014-03-01

    Ongoing searches for exoplanetary systems have revealed a wealth of planets with diverse physical properties. Planets even smaller than the Earth have already been detected and the efforts of future missions are aimed at the discovery, and perhaps characterization, of small rocky exoplanets within the habitable zone of their stars. Clearly, what we know about our planet will be our guideline for the characterization of such planets. But the Earth has been inhabited for at least 3.8 Gyr and its appearance has changed with time. Here, we have studied the Earth during the Archean eon, 3 Gyr ago. At that time, one of the more widespread life forms on the planet were purple bacteria. These bacteria are photosynthetic microorganisms and can inhabit both aquatic and terrestrial environments. Here, we use a radiative transfer model to simulate the visible and near-infrared radiation reflected by our planet, taking into account several scenarios regarding the possible distribution of purple bacteria over continents and oceans. We find that purple bacteria have a reflectance spectrum that has a strong reflectivity increase, similar to the red edge of leafy plants, although shifted redward. This feature produces a detectable signal in the disk-averaged spectra of our planet, depending on cloud amount and bacteria concentration/ distribution. We conclude that by using multi-color photometric observations, it is possible to distinguish between an Archean Earth in which purple bacteria inhabit vast extensions of the planet and a present-day Earth with continents covered by deserts, vegetation, or microbial mats.

  18. Characterizing the Purple Earth: Modeling the Globally Integrated Spectral Variability of the Archean Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanromá, E.; Pallé, E.; Parenteau, M. N.; Kiang, N. Y.; Gutiérrez-Navarro, A. M.; López, R.; Montañés-Rodríguez, P.

    2014-01-01

    Ongoing searches for exoplanetary systems have revealed a wealth of planets with diverse physical properties. Planets even smaller than the Earth have already been detected and the efforts of future missions are aimed at the discovery, and perhaps characterization, of small rocky exoplanets within the habitable zone of their stars. Clearly, what we know about our planet will be our guideline for the characterization of such planets. However, the Earth has been inhabited for at least 3.8 Gyr and its appearance has changed with time. Here, we have studied the Earth during the Archean eon, 3.0 Gyr ago. At that time, one of the more widespread life forms on the planet was purple bacteria. These bacteria are photosynthetic microorganisms and can inhabit both aquatic and terrestrial environments. Here, we use a radiative transfer model to simulate the visible and near-infrared radiation reflected by our planet, taking into account several scenarios regarding the possible distribution of purple bacteria over continents and oceans. We find that purple bacteria have a reflectance spectrum that has a strong reflectivity increase, similar to the red edge of leafy plants, although shifted redward. This feature produces a detectable signal in the disk-averaged spectra of our planet, depending on cloud amount and purple bacteria concentration/distribution. We conclude that by using multi-color photometric observations, it is possible to distinguish between an Archean Earth in which purple bacteria inhabit vast extensions of the planet and a present-day Earth with continents covered by deserts, vegetation, or microbial mats.

  19. Global Volcano Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  20. The Global Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  1. Annual cycle of global distributions of aerosol optical depth from integration of MODIS retrievals and GOCART model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hongbin; Dickinson, R. E.; Chin, M.; Kaufman, Y. J.; Holben, B. N.; Geogdzhayev, I. V.; Mishchenko, M. I.

    2003-02-01

    The Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument onboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites provides an unprecedented opportunity to study aerosols from space with high accuracy and on a nearly global scale. However, difficulty with highly reflective arid and snow-covered lands introduces significant gaps in global or regional coverage that must be filled by some other means. This study provides a complete global coverage of an annual cycle of aerosol optical depth by combining the MODIS retrievals and Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) simulations weighted with the uncertainties in each product. The assimilated aerosol optical depths over land are better correlated with the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements than are either the MODIS retrievals or the GOCART simulations alone. The gaps in the MODIS retrievals are filled with values that are generally consistent with the AERONET aerosol climatology. The assimilated aerosol optical depths are in good agreement with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aerosol climatology over the Atlantic and North Indian Oceans. In spring, large discrepancies between the MODIS retrievals in 2001 and the AVHRR climatology over the North Pacific are likely a result of extremely active transcontinental transport of Asian dust/pollutants to North America in the year 2001. Large model-satellite differences in the South Pacific and South Indian Oceans may be attributable to missing or underestimated sources in the model and/or cloud, whitecap, and glint contamination in satellite retrievals.

  2. A Global Integration Platform for Optimizing Cooperative Modeling and Simultaneous Joint Inversion of Multi-domain Geophysical Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio Chiappa

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the theoretical aspects and the practical issues of different types of geophysical integration approaches. Moreover it shows how these approaches can be combined and optimized into the same platform. We discuss both cooperative modeling and Simultaneous Joint Inversion (SJI as complementary methods for integration of multi-domain geophysical data: these data can be collected at surface (seismic, electromagnetic, gravity as well as in borehole (composite well logs. The main intrinsic difficulties of any SJI approach are the high computational requirements, the non-uniqueness of the final models, the proper choice of the relations between the different geophysical domains, the quantitative evaluation of reliability indicators. In order to face efficiently all these problems we propose and describe here a “systemic approach”: the algorithms of modeling and SJI are merged with an integration architecture that permits the selection of workflows and links between different algorithms, the management of data and models coming from different domains, the smart visualization of partial and final results. This Quantitative Integration System (QUIS has been implemented into a complex software and hardware platform, comprising many advanced codes working in cooperation and running on powerful computer clusters. The paper is divided into two main parts. First we discuss the theoretical formulation of SJI and the key concepts of the QUIS platform. In the second part we present a synthetic SJI test and a case history of QUIS application to a real exploration problem.

  3. LVIS Integration onto Global Hawk Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Integrate LVIS lidar capability onto the Global Hawk (GH) to enable high altitude mapping of land, vegetation, and ice Provide operational capability and data...

  4. Integrated Surface Global Hourly Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Integrated Surface Data (ISD) is digital data set DSI-3505, archived at the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The ISD database is composed of worldwide surface...

  5. Potential and limitations of finite element modelling in assessing structural integrity of coralline algae under future global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melbourne, L. A.; Griffin, J.; Schmidt, D. N.; Rayfield, E. J.

    2015-10-01

    Coralline algae are important habitat formers found on all rocky shores. While the impact of future ocean acidification on the physiological performance of the species has been well studied, little research has focused on potential changes in structural integrity in response to climate change. A previous study using 2-D Finite Element Analysis (FEA) suggested increased vulnerability to fracture (by wave action or boring) in algae grown under high CO2 conditions. To assess how realistically 2-D simplified models represent structural performance, a series of increasingly biologically accurate 3-D FE models that represent different aspects of coralline algal growth were developed. Simplified geometric 3-D models of the genus Lithothamnion were compared to models created from computed tomography (CT) scan data of the same genus. The biologically accurate model and the simplified geometric model representing individual cells had similar average stresses and stress distributions, emphasising the importance of the cell walls in dissipating the stress throughout the structure. In contrast models without the accurate representation of the cell geometry resulted in larger stress and strain results. Our more complex 3-D model reiterated the potential of climate change to diminish the structural integrity of the organism. This suggests that under future environmental conditions the weakening of the coralline algal skeleton along with increased external pressures (wave and bioerosion) may negatively influence the ability for coralline algae to maintain a habitat able to sustain high levels of biodiversity.

  6. Carbon stock and carbon turnover in boreal and temperate forests - Integration of remote sensing data and global vegetation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Tito Rademacher, Tim; Santoro, Maurizio; Tum, Markus; Schmullius, Christiane

    2016-04-01

    Long-term vegetation dynamics are one of the key uncertainties of the carbon cycle. There are large differences in simulated vegetation carbon stocks and fluxes including productivity, respiration and carbon turnover between global vegetation models. Especially the implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current models and their importance at global scale is highly uncertain. These shortcomings have been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which cannot be provided by inventory data alone. Instead, we recently have been able to estimate northern boreal and temperate forest carbon stocks based on radar remote sensing data. Our spatially explicit product (0.01° resolution) shows strong agreement to inventory-based estimates at a regional scale and allows for a spatial evaluation of carbon stocks and dynamics simulated by global vegetation models. By combining this state-of-the-art biomass product and NPP datasets originating from remote sensing, we are able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests along spatial gradients. We observe an increasing turnover rate with colder winter temperatures and longer winters in boreal forests, suggesting frost damage and the trade-off between frost adaptation and growth being important mortality processes in this ecosystem. In contrast, turnover rate increases with climatic conditions favouring drought and insect outbreaks in temperate forests. Investigated global vegetation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce observation-based spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well in terms of NPP, simulated

  7. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  8. Regionalizing global climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

  9. Global integration in times of crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Camilla

    to reconcile these findings by testing a number of hypothesis about global integration strategies in the context of the global financial crisis and how it affected exporting among multinational subsidiaries operating out of Turkey. Controlling for the impact that depreciations and exchange rate volatility has...... integration strategies throughout the course of the global financial crisis.......Past research suggests that a financial crisis event has a dual and ambiguous effect on the exporting strategy of subsidiaries of multinational firms in a value chain and offshoring perspective. From a total volume perspective exports are expected to contract due to a decline in demand (demand...

  10. China, Japan and South Korea: Trade Integration under Economic Globalization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhu Zeng

    2008-01-01

    @@ Economic globalization and regional economic integration are the two major trends of world economic development. In the practice of regional economic integration, the EU and NAFTA as two successful models, has had a significant impact on world economic pattern. Until July 2007, the global effective free trade agreernent (FTA) reached 143. In recent years, FTA among developed and developing countries and regions are on the rise.

  11. Global Delivery Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manning, Stephan; Larsen, Marcus M.; Bharati, Pratyush

    2013-01-01

    This article examines antecedents and performance implications of global delivery models (GDMs) in global business services. GDMs require geographically distributed operations to exploit both proximity to clients and time-zone spread for efficient service delivery. We propose and empirically show...... that service providers who differentiate based on speed of service delivery are likely to set up GDM structures, and that these structures positively affect deal renewal rates if speed is important for clients in selecting vendors. Findings imply that, as co-location becomes less necessary for providing...... digitalized services, time zones increasingly affect....

  12. Integrated export development under conditions of globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Jatuliavičienė, Gražina

    2010-01-01

    In the dissertation from the holistic point of view are discussed export development peculiarities in the global area. The main aim of the dissertation is the expansion of the export development concept in consideration to the challenges of globalization. Therefore, peculiarities of internationalization and globalization processes and their connections in the context of export development are discussed; alternation of internationalization models under conditions of globalization is evaluated,...

  13. A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with global forest data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverd, V.; Smith, B.; Nieradzik, L. P.; Briggs, P. R.

    2014-02-01

    Poorly constrained rates of biomass turnover are a key limitation of Earth system models (ESM). In light of this, we recently proposed a new approach encoded in a model called Populations-Order-Physiology (POP), for the simulation of woody ecosystem stand dynamics, demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. POP is suitable for continental to global applications and designed for coupling to the terrestrial ecosystem component of any ESM. POP bridges the gap between first generation Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs) with simple large-area parameterisations of woody biomass (typically used in current ESMs) and complex second generation DVMs, that explicitly simulate demographic processes and landscape heterogeneity of forests. The key simplification in the POP approach, compared with second-generation DVMs, is to compute physiological processes such as assimilation at grid-scale (with CABLE or a similar land surface model), but to partition the grid-scale biomass increment among age classes defined at sub grid-scale, each subject to its own dynamics. POP was successfully demonstrated along a savanna transect in northern Australia, replicating the effects of strong rainfall and fire disturbance gradients on observed stand productivity and structure. Here, we extend the application of POP to a range of forest types around the globe, employing paired observations of stem biomass and density from forest inventory data to calibrate model parameters governing stand demography and biomass evolution. The calibrated POP model is then coupled to the CABLE land surface model and the combined model (CABLE-POP) is evaluated against leaf-stem allometry observations from forest stands ranging in age from 3 to 200 yr. Results indicate that simulated biomass pools conform well with observed allometry. We conclude that POP represents a preferable alternative to large-area parameterisations of woody biomass turnover, typically used in current ESMs.

  14. A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with global forest data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Haverd

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Poorly constrained rates of biomass turnover are a key limitation of Earth system models (ESM. In light of this, we recently proposed a new approach encoded in a model called Populations-Order-Physiology (POP, for the simulation of woody ecosystem stand dynamics, demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. POP is suitable for continental to global applications and designed for coupling to the terrestrial ecosystem component of any ESM. POP bridges the gap between first generation Dynamic Vegetation Models (DVMs with simple large-area parameterisations of woody biomass (typically used in current ESMs and complex second generation DVMs, that explicitly simulate demographic processes and landscape heterogeneity of forests. The key simplification in the POP approach, compared with second-generation DVMs, is to compute physiological processes such as assimilation at grid-scale (with CABLE or a similar land surface model, but to partition the grid-scale biomass increment among age classes defined at sub grid-scale, each subject to its own dynamics. POP was successfully demonstrated along a savanna transect in northern Australia, replicating the effects of strong rainfall and fire disturbance gradients on observed stand productivity and structure. Here, we extend the application of POP to a range of forest types around the globe, employing paired observations of stem biomass and density from forest inventory data to calibrate model parameters governing stand demography and biomass evolution. The calibrated POP model is then coupled to the CABLE land surface model and the combined model (CABLE-POP is evaluated against leaf-stem allometry observations from forest stands ranging in age from 3 to 200 yr. Results indicate that simulated biomass pools conform well with observed allometry. We conclude that POP represents a preferable alternative to large-area parameterisations of woody biomass turnover, typically used in current ESMs.

  15. Global integrated drought monitoring and prediction system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Farahmand, Alireza

    2014-01-01

    Drought is by far the most costly natural disaster that can lead to widespread impacts, including water and food crises. Here we present data sets available from the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS), which provides drought information based on multiple drought indicators. The system provides meteorological and agricultural drought information based on multiple satellite-, and model-based precipitation and soil moisture data sets. GIDMaPS includes a near real-time monitoring component and a seasonal probabilistic prediction module. The data sets include historical drought severity data from the monitoring component, and probabilistic seasonal forecasts from the prediction module. The probabilistic forecasts provide essential information for early warning, taking preventive measures, and planning mitigation strategies. GIDMaPS data sets are a significant extension to current capabilities and data sets for global drought assessment and early warning. The presented data sets would be instrumental in reducing drought impacts especially in developing countries. Our results indicate that GIDMaPS data sets reliably captured several major droughts from across the globe.

  16. Eurasia: The Rivalry of Global Integration Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olesia Kobenko

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the Eurasian integration projects as major drivers of world globalization. Eurasian regionalism seems to be gaining attention in the scientific literature. Under the current political circumstance many regions are accelerating integration and many countries are opting for regional associations as a mechanism to help them overcome the global recession. Moreover, the global political leaders , some developed countries - the U.S., China, and the European Union (EU are interested to set up regional economic blocs such as Eurasian Economic Union (The EEU, the China's project 'One Belt One Road', the U.S's projects - The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP and The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP. The goal of this paper is to introduce a number of integration initiatives and to analyze the current strategies of Eurasian regionalism.

  17. Isolating the roles of different forcing agents in global stratospheric temperature changes using model integrations with incrementally added single forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquila, V.; Swartz, W. H.; Waugh, D. W.; Colarco, P. R.; Pawson, S.; Polvani, L. M.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2016-07-01

    Satellite instruments show a cooling of global stratospheric temperatures over the whole data record (1979-2014). This cooling is not linear and includes two descending steps in the early 1980s and mid-1990s. The 1979-1995 period is characterized by increasing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by the two major volcanic eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). The 1995-present period is characterized by decreasing ODS concentrations and by the absence of major volcanic eruptions. Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations increase over the whole time period. In order to isolate the roles of different forcing agents in the global stratospheric temperature changes, we performed a set of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model with prescribed sea surface temperatures. We find that in our model simulations the cooling of the stratosphere from 1979 to present is mostly driven by changes in GHG concentrations in the middle and upper stratosphere and by GHG and ODS changes in the lower stratosphere. While the cooling trend caused by increasing GHGs is roughly constant over the satellite era, changing ODS concentrations cause a significant stratospheric cooling only up to the mid-1990s, when they start to decrease because of the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. Sporadic volcanic events and the solar cycle have a distinct signature in the time series of stratospheric temperature anomalies but do not play a statistically significant role in the long-term trends from 1979 to 2014. Several factors combine to produce the step-like behavior in the stratospheric temperatures: in the lower stratosphere, the flattening starting in the mid-1990s is due to the decrease in ozone-depleting substances; Mount Pinatubo and the solar cycle cause the abrupt steps through the aerosol-associated warming and the volcanically induced ozone depletion. In the middle and upper stratosphere, changes in solar

  18. Integrating Sustainability in Organisations: An Activity-Based Sustainability Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ana Rodríguez-Olalla; Carmen Aviles-Palacios

    2017-01-01

    .... Although global integration models address sustainability in organisations, these models present shortcomings and limitations and do not describe how to achieve the integration of sustainability...

  19. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen

  20. The Integrative Dimension of the Economic Globalization in European Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Mariana Alexandrache

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available We believe that globalization and its socio-economic implications of the world and world economic crisis is one of the most debated issues from several years. The publication "The Economist’’ named globalization as the most used word of the century. The most relevant dimension of globalization is the economy with the more dynamic factors: technological development, the hegemony of liberal conceptions (closely linked to the triumph of the ideology of market economy and explosive development of countries or regions. Economic globalization has manifested a series of visible effects such as: the emergence of new markets and foreign trade (interconnected at global level, the appearance of: transnational companies, multilateral agreements on trade, broadening the scope of WTO, transformation of multinational companies in transnational companies and the emergence of global economic markets. Regionally, we noticed that the trendof concentration of economic activity is more pronounced and advanced in the European continent. Expanding globalization in Europe was achieved because of the fall of communism, and the neoliberal reformation which took place in Western European countries. Events like the fall of the Berlin Wall, followed by the fall of communism eradicated many political, economic, religious or cultural barriers. There were born new relations between state and market, public and private. European Union is, in our view, a regional office ofglobalization, representing the best performing integrative system in the world (by creating free trade area, customs union, common market, the Economic and Monetary Union. In terms of the European Commission,European model is a third way towards globalization, a middle path between protectionism and uncontrolled economy. To understand why the EU is an advanced approximation of globalization, perhaps a regional model of globalization, we must first understand the link between globalization and regional

  1. Approach to Integrate Global-Sun Models of Magnetic Flux Emergence and Transport for Space Weather Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan A.; Mehrotra, Piyush; Henney, Carl; Arge, Nick; Godinez, H.; Manchester, Ward; Koller, J.; Kosovichev, A.; Scherrer, P.; Zhao, J.; Stein, R.; Duvall, T.; Fan, Y.

    2013-01-01

    The Sun lies at the center of space weather and is the source of its variability. The primary input to coronal and solar wind models is the activity of the magnetic field in the solar photosphere. Recent advancements in solar observations and numerical simulations provide a basis for developing physics-based models for the dynamics of the magnetic field from the deep convection zone of the Sun to the corona with the goal of providing robust near real-time boundary conditions at the base of space weather forecast models. The goal is to develop new strategic capabilities that enable characterization and prediction of the magnetic field structure and flow dynamics of the Sun by assimilating data from helioseismology and magnetic field observations into physics-based realistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. The integration of first-principle modeling of solar magnetism and flow dynamics with real-time observational data via advanced data assimilation methods is a new, transformative step in space weather research and prediction. This approach will substantially enhance an existing model of magnetic flux distribution and transport developed by the Air Force Research Lab. The development plan is to use the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to develop Coupled Models for Emerging flux Simulations (CMES) that couples three existing models: (1) an MHD formulation with the anelastic approximation to simulate the deep convection zone (FSAM code), (2) an MHD formulation with full compressible Navier-Stokes equations and a detailed description of radiative transfer and thermodynamics to simulate near-surface convection and the photosphere (Stagger code), and (3) an MHD formulation with full, compressible Navier-Stokes equations and an approximate description of radiative transfer and heating to simulate the corona (Module in BATS-R-US). CMES will enable simulations of the emergence of magnetic structures from the deep convection zone to the corona. Finally, a plan

  2. Empirical support for global integrated assessment modeling: Productivity trends and technological change in developing countries' agriculture and electric power sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant A.

    2000-04-01

    Integrated assessment (IA) modeling of climate policy is increasingly global in nature, with models incorporating regional disaggregation. The existing empirical basis for IA modeling, however, largely arises from research on industrialized economies. Given the growing importance of developing countries in determining long-term global energy and carbon emissions trends, filling this gap with improved statistical information on developing countries' energy and carbon-emissions characteristics is an important priority for enhancing IA modeling. Earlier research at LBNL on this topic has focused on assembling and analyzing statistical data on productivity trends and technological change in the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors of five developing countries, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea. The proposed work will extend this analysis to the agriculture and electric power sectors in India, South Korea, and two other developing countries. They will also examine the impact of alternative model specifications on estimates of productivity growth and technological change for each of the three sectors, and estimate the contribution of various capital inputs--imported vs. indigenous, rigid vs. malleable-- in contributing to productivity growth and technological change. The project has already produced a data resource on the manufacturing sector which is being shared with IA modelers. This will be extended to the agriculture and electric power sectors, which would also be made accessible to IA modeling groups seeking to enhance the empirical descriptions of developing country characteristics. The project will entail basic statistical and econometric analysis of productivity and energy trends in these developing country sectors, with parameter estimates also made available to modeling groups. The parameter estimates will be developed using alternative model specifications that could be directly utilized by the existing IAMs for the manufacturing

  3. Global integrability of cosmological scalar fields

    CERN Document Server

    Maciejewski, Andrzej J; Stachowiak, Tomasz; Szydlowski, Marek

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the Liouvillian integrability of Hamiltonian systems describing a universe filled with a scalar field (possibly complex). The tool used is the differential Galois group approach, as introduced by Morales-Ruiz and Ramis. The main result is that the generic systems with minimal coupling are non-integrable, although there still exist some values of parameters for which integrability remains undecided; the conformally coupled systems are only integrable in four known cases. We also draw a connection with chaos present in such cosmological models, and the issues of integrability restricted to the real domain.

  4. The Computation of Global Viscoelastic Co- and Post-seismic Displacement in a Realistic Earth Model by Straightforward Numerical Inverse Laplace Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, H.; Sun, W.

    2016-12-01

    The theoretical computation of dislocation theory in a given earth model is necessary in the explanation of observations of the co- and post-seismic deformation of earthquakes. For this purpose, computation theories based on layered or pure half space [Okada, 1985; Okubo, 1992; Wang et al., 2006] and on spherically symmetric earth [Piersanti et al., 1995; Pollitz, 1997; Sabadini & Vermeersen, 1997; Wang, 1999] have been proposed. It is indicated that the compressibility, curvature and the continuous variation of the radial structure of Earth should be simultaneously taken into account for modern high precision displacement-based observations like GPS. Therefore, Tanaka et al. [2006; 2007] computed global displacement and gravity variation by combining the reciprocity theorem (RPT) [Okubo, 1993] and numerical inverse Laplace integration (NIL) instead of the normal mode method [Peltier, 1974]. Without using RPT, we follow the straightforward numerical integration of co-seismic deformation given by Sun et al. [1996] to present a straightforward numerical inverse Laplace integration method (SNIL). This method is used to compute the co- and post-seismic displacement of point dislocations buried in a spherically symmetric, self-gravitating viscoelastic and multilayered earth model and is easy to extended to the application of geoid and gravity. Comparing with pre-existing method, this method is relatively more straightforward and time-saving, mainly because we sum associated Legendre polynomials and dislocation love numbers before using Riemann-Merlin formula to implement SNIL.

  5. Economic Globalization - a Phenomenon of Global Business Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu-Marcel Joia

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Tumultuous economic life led scientists to seek explanations to the negative economic events,events that take many forms, and to whom it is a must to find a solution or even a mitigating factor. Thefoundation of the economy has undergone many changes. The recent events manifested in the world economyshow that the underlying fundamentals of this science must be revised because they proved to be wrong. Itnotes several times, mainly due to present economic crisis, that currently the economics have no theoreticaland practical means and no tools of analysis and intervention in the economy, proving that the existing onesare exceeded and insufficient, so that the creation of an unifying principle and of some generalizing conceptsthat could systematize and forecast the current economic phenomena in the microeconomics andmacroeconomics, especially in the transnational companies field, those which are the base of the foreigndirect investment flows, should become the main objective of the new economic science. Through this paper,we tried to illustrate the important aspects of economic globalization, the challenges that this phenomenonposes to economies and the way in which an economy can become globally competitive, under massiveconstraints of the global competition, how a national company can become globally integrated, study basedon representative references.

  6. Simulation analysis of globally integrated logistics and recycling strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, S.J.; Hiroshi, K. [Hiroshima Inst. of Tech., Graduate School of Mechanical Systems Engineering, Dept. of In formation and Intelligent Systems Engineering, Hiroshima (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    This paper focuses on the optimal analysis of world-wide recycling activities associated with managing the logistics and production activities in global manufacturing whose activities stretch across national boundaries. Globally integrated logistics and recycling strategies consist of the home country and two free trading economic blocs, NAFTA and ASEAN, where significant differences are found in production and disassembly cost, tax rates, local content rules and regulations. Moreover an optimal analysis of globally integrated value-chain was developed by applying simulation optimization technique as a decision-making tool. The simulation model was developed and analyzed by using ProModel packages, and the results help to identify some of the appropriate conditions required to make well-performed logistics and recycling plans in world-wide collaborated manufacturing environment. (orig.)

  7. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  8. Integrated ELM modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loennroth, J.S.; Kiviniemi, T. [Association EURATOM-Tekes, Helsinki University of Technology, P. O. Box 4100, 02015 TKK (Finland); Bateman, G.; Kritz, A. [Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA (United States); Becoulet, M.; Figarella, C.; Garbet, X.; Huysmans, G. [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA Cadarache (France); Beyer, P. [University of Marseille (France); Corrigan, G.; Fundamenski, W. [UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre (United Kingdom); Garcia, O.E.; Naulin, V. [Association Euratom-Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark); Janeschitz, G. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (Germany); Johnson, T. [Association Euratom-VR, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden); Kuhn, S. [Association Euratom-OeAW, University of Innsbruck (Austria); Loarte, A. [EFDA Close Support Unit, Garching (Germany); Nave, F. [Association Euratom-IST, Centro de Fusao Nuclear, Lisbon (Portugal); Onjun, T. [Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (Thailand); Pacher, G.W. [Hydro Quebec (Canada); Pacher, H.D.; Pankin, A.; Parail, V.; Pitts, R.; Saibene, G.; Snyder, P.; Spence, J.; Tskhakaya, D.; Wilson, H.

    2006-09-15

    This paper presents a short overview of current trends and progress in integrated ELM modelling. First, the concept of integrated ELM modelling is introduced, various interpretations of it are given and the need for it is discussed. Then follows an overview of different techniques and methods used in integrated ELM modelling presented roughly according to physics approached in use and in order of increasing complexity. The paper concludes with a short discussion of open issues and future modelling requirements within the field of integrated ELM modelling. (copyright 2006 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  9. Global aspects of classical integrable systems

    CERN Document Server

    Cushman, Richard H

    2015-01-01

    This book gives a uniquely complete description of the geometry of the energy momentum mapping of five classical integrable systems: the 2-dimensional harmonic oscillator, the geodesic flow on the 3-sphere, the Euler top, the spherical pendulum and the Lagrange top. It presents for the first time in book form a general theory of symmetry reduction which allows one to reduce the symmetries in the spherical pendulum and the Lagrange top. Also the monodromy obstruction to the existence of global action angle coordinates is calculated for the spherical pendulum and the Lagrange top. The book addresses professional mathematicians and graduate students and can be used as a textbook on advanced classical mechanics or global analysis.

  10. Globalization and Integration Processes in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beti Godnič

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Research Question (RQ: In the article we highlight the issue of whether Integration processes in the European Union are only a manifestation of these Globalization processes and if there are differences in the the old member States EU (15 and the new EU member states in changed micro and macro environment? Purpose: We wanted to determine how the old member States EU (15 and the new EU member states adapt to the new circumstances and other changes in the micro and macro environment. Method: Analysing complexity of the changes of the state of economic system, and complex fundamental global processes, which have been occurred in long period of time, need to supplement the pure scientific approach with other types of research work, more holistic approach, which is commonly used in Comparative economics. We have taken such an approach in this article. Results: In the article we studied the geopolitical changes in the micro and macro environment. We found that the development in the old EU member states EU-15 and in the new EU member states is different. EU havent addopted the harmonised economic policy which will solve the »North-South« problem and cross-state cultural consensus and find a way to operate systemically in global environment. Organization: The findings can be used to support undestanding of micro and macro envirnment of the companys and contribute for better strategic planning and design of the entire supply chain. Society: The findings can contribute to better understanding of integrative processes in the EU. Limitations/Future Research: The complexity of the problem and the dynamic changes in the functioning of the global market requires in-depth studiying of changes in the micro and macro environment of logistics companie

  11. Global human capital: integrating education and population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; KC, Samir

    2011-07-29

    Almost universally, women with higher levels of education have fewer children. Better education is associated with lower mortality, better health, and different migration patterns. Hence, the global population outlook depends greatly on further progress in education, particularly of young women. By 2050, the highest and lowest education scenarios--assuming identical education-specific fertility rates--result in world population sizes of 8.9 and 10.0 billion, respectively. Better education also matters for human development, including health, economic growth, and democracy. Existing methods of multi-state demography can quantitatively integrate education into standard demographic analysis, thus adding the "quality" dimension.

  12. Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Mcdermid, Sonali P.

    2017-01-01

    We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  13. Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Mcdermid, Sonali P.

    2017-01-01

    We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  14. A global central banker competency model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Brits

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: No comprehensive, integrated competency model exists for central bankers. Due to the importance of central banks in the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it was deemed necessary to design and validate such a model.Research purpose: To craft and validate a comprehensive, integrated global central banker competency model (GCBCM and to assess whether central banks using the GCBCM for training have a higher global influence.Motivation for the study: Limited consensus exists globally about what constitutes a ‘competent’ central banker. A quantitatively validated GCBCM would make a significant contribution to enhancing central banker effectiveness, and also provide a solid foundation for effective people management.Research approach, design and method: A blended quantitative and qualitative research approach was taken. Two sets of hypotheses were tested regarding the relationships between the GCBCM and the training offered, using the model on the one hand, and a central bank’s global influence on the other.Main findings: The GCBCM was generally accepted across all participating central banks globally, although some differences were found between central banks with higher and lower global influence. The actual training offered by central banks in terms of the model, however, is generally limited to technical-functional skills. The GCBCM is therefore at present predominantly aspirational. Significant differences were found regarding the training offered.Practical/managerial implications: By adopting the GCBCM, central banks would be able to develop organisation-specific competency models in order to enhance their organisational capabilities and play their increasingly important global role more effectively.Contribution: A generic conceptual framework for the crafting of a competency model with evaluation criteria was developed. A GCBCM was quantitatively validated.

  15. Global nuclear material control model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.A.

    1996-05-01

    The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of a disposition program for special nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool that treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. Such a tool must represent the fundamental data, information, and capabilities of the fuel cycle including an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, and a framework supportive of national or international perspective. They have developed a prototype global nuclear material management and control systems analysis capability, the Global Nuclear Material Control (GNMC) model. The GNMC model establishes the framework for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material.

  16. Global/Local Dynamic Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfeffer, A; Das, S; Lawless, D; Ng, B

    2006-10-10

    Many dynamic systems involve a number of entities that are largely independent of each other but interact with each other via a subset of state variables. We present global/local dynamic models (GLDMs) to capture these kinds of systems. In a GLDM, the state of an entity is decomposed into a globally influenced state that depends on other entities, and a locally influenced state that depends only on the entity itself. We present an inference algorithm for GLDMs called global/local particle filtering, that introduces the principle of reasoning globally about global dynamics and locally about local dynamics. We have applied GLDMs to an asymmetric urban warfare environment, in which enemy units form teams to attack important targets, and the task is to detect such teams as they form. Experimental results for this application show that global/local particle filtering outperforms ordinary particle filtering and factored particle filtering.

  17. Integrable Bogoliubov Transform and Integrable Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王宁

    2003-01-01

    By defining Bogoliubov transform as a function of parameters, the integrability of the Bogoliubov transform in parameter space is investigated. It is shown that integrable Bogoliubov transform is closely related to the known integrable model. The relation between the integrable Bogoliubov transform and geometric phase of vacuum induced by the Bogoliubov transform is also discussed.

  18. Solicited abstract: Global hydrological modeling and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chong-Yu

    2010-05-01

    The origins of rainfall-runoff modeling in the broad sense can be found in the middle of the 19th century arising in response to three types of engineering problems: (1) urban sewer design, (2) land reclamation drainage systems design, and (3) reservoir spillway design. Since then numerous empirical, conceptual and physically-based models are developed including event based models using unit hydrograph concept, Nash's linear reservoir models, HBV model, TOPMODEL, SHE model, etc. From the late 1980s, the evolution of global and continental-scale hydrology has placed new demands on hydrologic modellers. The macro-scale hydrological (global and regional scale) models were developed on the basis of the following motivations (Arenll, 1999). First, for a variety of operational and planning purposes, water resource managers responsible for large regions need to estimate the spatial variability of resources over large areas, at a spatial resolution finer than can be provided by observed data alone. Second, hydrologists and water managers are interested in the effects of land-use and climate variability and change over a large geographic domain. Third, there is an increasing need of using hydrologic models as a base to estimate point and non-point sources of pollution loading to streams. Fourth, hydrologists and atmospheric modellers have perceived weaknesses in the representation of hydrological processes in regional and global climate models, and developed global hydrological models to overcome the weaknesses of global climate models. Considerable progress in the development and application of global hydrological models has been achieved to date, however, large uncertainties still exist considering the model structure including large scale flow routing, parameterization, input data, etc. This presentation will focus on the global hydrological models, and the discussion includes (1) types of global hydrological models, (2) procedure of global hydrological model development

  19. Structural model integrity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallerstein, D. V.; Lahey, R. S.; Haggenmacher, G. W.

    1977-01-01

    Many of the practical aspects and problems of ensuring the integrity of a structural model are discussed, as well as the steps which have been taken in the NASTRAN system to assure that these checks can be routinely performed. Model integrity as used applies not only to the structural model but also to the loads applied to the model. Emphasis is also placed on the fact that when dealing with substructure analysis, all of the checking procedures discussed should be applied at the lowest level of substructure prior to any coupling.

  20. Data integration technologies to support integrated modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knapen, M.J.R.; Roosenschoon, O.R.; Lokers, R.M.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Randen, van Y.; Verweij, P.J.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Over the recent years the scientific activities of our organisation in large research projects show a shifting priority from model integration to the integration of data itself. Our work in several large projects on integrated modelling for impact assessment studies has clearly shown the importance

  1. Data integration technologies to support integrated modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knapen, M.J.R.; Roosenschoon, O.R.; Lokers, R.M.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Randen, van Y.; Verweij, P.J.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Over the recent years the scientific activities of our organisation in large research projects show a shifting priority from model integration to the integration of data itself. Our work in several large projects on integrated modelling for impact assessment studies has clearly shown the importance

  2. Integrated Modeling of Telescopes

    CERN Document Server

    Andersen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    With increasingly complex and costly opto-mechanical systems, there is a growing need for reliable computer modeling and simulation. The field of integrated modeling, combining optics, mechanics, control engineering, and other disciplines, is the subject of this book. Although the book primarily focuses on ground-based optical telescopes, the techniques introduced are applicable also to other wavelengths and to other opto-mechanical applications on the ground or in space. Basic tools of integrated modeling are introduced together with concepts of ground-based telescopes. Modeling of optical systems, structures, wavefront control systems with emphasis on segmented mirror control, and active and adaptive optics are described together with a variety of noise sources; many examples are included in this book. Integrated Modeling of Telescopes is a text for physicists and engineers working in the field of opto-mechanical design and wavefront control, but it will also be valuable as a textbook for PhD students.

  3. Comparison of global passenger transport models and available literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breugem RMH; Vuuren DP van; Wee B van; MNV

    2002-01-01

    Over the last decade transport has been strongest growing sector in terms of worldwide energy demand. As a result, proper modelling of transport has become more important in models describing global climate change. RIVM has developed the energy model TIMER as part of the global integrated assessmen

  4. Comparison of global passenger transport models and available literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breugem RMH; Vuuren DP van; Wee B van; MNV

    2002-01-01

    Over the last decade transport has been strongest growing sector in terms of worldwide energy demand. As a result, proper modelling of transport has become more important in models describing global climate change. RIVM has developed the energy model TIMER as part of the global integrated

  5. Developing a Global Mindset: Integrating Demographics, Sustainability, Technology, and Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Raj

    2011-01-01

    Business schools face a number of challenges in responding to the business influences of demographics, sustainability, and technology--all three of which are also the fundamental driving forces for globalization. Demographic forces are creating global imbalances in worker populations and in government finances; the world economy faces…

  6. Developing a Global Mindset: Integrating Demographics, Sustainability, Technology, and Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Raj

    2011-01-01

    Business schools face a number of challenges in responding to the business influences of demographics, sustainability, and technology--all three of which are also the fundamental driving forces for globalization. Demographic forces are creating global imbalances in worker populations and in government finances; the world economy faces…

  7. An Integrated Assessment of Investments towards Global Water Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea M. Bassi

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available To date there has been limited research on integrated water resource management, specifically regarding investments, from a global perspective, largely due to the complexity of the problem and to generally local water management practices. Water demand and supply are very often affected by international factors and with global climate change, population growth and increasing consumption, water management is now more than ever a global issue. This paper gives an overview of current and impending water problems while assessing investment needs for integrated water management as a possible solution to projected water challenges. The analysis compares a business as usual case (BAU to a scenario in which investments improve water efficiency use across sectors to curb demand, increase innovative supply from desalination and enhance conventional water resources management measures. System dynamics modeling is employed to represent the structural factors influencing water demand and supply in the context of an integrated framework including cross-sectoral linkages. The analysis confirms that sustainable water management is feasible, but it requires investments in the range of $145 billion per year between 2011 and 2050 (0.16% of GDP or $17/person/year and timely, effective action.

  8. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thio, H. K.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Polet, J.; Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Davies, G.; Griffin, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Omira, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Power, W. L.; Salgado Gálvez, M.; Behrens, J.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Pekcan, O.; Ross, S.; Parsons, T.; LeVeque, R. J.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Paris, R.; Shäfer, A.; Canals, M.; Fraser, S. A.; Wei, Y.; Weiss, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Didenkulova, I.; Necmioglu, O.; Suppasri, A.; Lynett, P. J.; Mokhtari, M.; Sørensen, M.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aguirre Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Guillas, S.; Macias, J.

    2016-12-01

    The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  9. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Løvholt, Finn

    2017-04-01

    The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  10. The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and ModelGlobal Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation ModelGlobal Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic

  11. Local and Global Illumination in the Volume Rendering Integral

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Max, N; Chen, M

    2005-10-21

    This article is intended as an update of the major survey by Max [1] on optical models for direct volume rendering. It provides a brief overview of the subject scope covered by [1], and brings recent developments, such as new shadow algorithms and refraction rendering, into the perspective. In particular, we examine three fundamentals aspects of direct volume rendering, namely the volume rendering integral, local illumination models and global illumination models, in a wavelength-independent manner. We review the developments on spectral volume rendering, in which visible light are considered as a form of electromagnetic radiation, optical models are implemented in conjunction with representations of spectral power distribution. This survey can provide a basis for, and encourage, new efforts for developing and using complex illumination models to achieve better realism and perception through optical correctness.

  12. Integrative motivation and global language (English acquisition in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert C. Gardner

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the consistency of a measure of integrative motivation in the prediction of achievement in English as a foreign language in 18 samples of Polish school students. The results are shown to have implications for concerns expressed that integrative motivation might not be appropriate to the acquisition of English because it is a global language and moreover that other factors such as the gender of the student or the environment of the class might also influence its predictability. Results of a hierarchical linear modeling analysis indicated that for the older samples, integrative motivation was a consistent predictor of grades in English, unaffected by either the gender of the student or class environment acting as covariates. Comparable results were obtained for the younger samples except that student gender also contributed to the prediction of grades in English. Examination of the correlations of the elements of the integrative motivation score with English grades demonstrated that the aggregate score is the more consistent correlate from sample to sample than the elements themselves. Such results lead to the hypothesis that integrative motivation is a multi-dimensional construct and different aspects of the motivational complex come into play for each individual. That is, two individuals can hold the same level of integrative motivation and thus attain the same level of achievement but one might be higher in some elements and lower in others than another individual, resulting in consistent correlations of the aggregate but less so for the elements.

  13. Global Modelling in the 1980s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, John M., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    Characterizes global modelling as addressing questions of human survival and well-being. Briefly describes models in three categories: the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis conference models, global international economic models, and politically-oriented models. Suggests that global models in the 80s work toward shaping the…

  14. Spatial Accuracy Assessment and Integration of Global Land Cover Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandin-Erdene Tsendbazar

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Along with the creation of new maps, current efforts for improving global land cover (GLC maps focus on integrating maps by accounting for their relative merits, e.g., agreement amongst maps or map accuracy. Such integration efforts may benefit from the use of multiple GLC reference datasets. Using available reference datasets, this study assesses spatial accuracy of recent GLC maps and compares methods for creating an improved land cover (LC map. Spatial correspondence with reference dataset was modeled for Globcover-2009, Land Cover-CCI-2010, MODIS-2010 and Globeland30 maps for Africa. Using different scenarios concerning the used input data, five integration methods for an improved LC map were tested and cross-validated. Comparison of the spatial correspondences showed that the preferences for GLC maps varied spatially. Integration methods using both the GLC maps and reference data at their locations resulted in 4.5%–13% higher correspondence with the reference LC than any of the input GLC maps. An integrated LC map and LC class probability maps were computed using regression kriging, which produced the highest correspondence (76%. Our results demonstrate the added value of using reference datasets and geostatistics for improving GLC maps. This approach is useful as more GLC reference datasets are becoming publicly available and their reuse is being encouraged.

  15. Global Urbanization Modeling Supported by Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.; Smith, S.; Zhao, K.; Imhoff, M. L.; Thomson, A. M.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Elvidge, C.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization, one of the major human induced land cover and land use change, has profound impacts on the Earth system, and plays important roles in a variety of processes such as biodiversity loss, water and carbon cycle, and climate change. Accurate information on urban areas and their spatial distribution at the regional and global scales is important in both scientific and policy-making communities. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime stable light data (NTL) provide a potential way to map urban area and its dynamics economically and timely. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the DMSP/OLS NTL data. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of the derived optimal thresholds and the reliability of the cluster-based method. Compared to existing threshold techniques, our method reduces the over- and under-estimation issue, when mapping urban extent over a large area. Using this cluster-based method, we built new global maps of 1-km urban extent from the NTL data (Figure 1) and evaluated its temporal dynamics from 1992 to 2013. Supported by the derived global urban maps and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model and projected future urban expansion.

  16. Integrated global digital image correlation for interface delamination characterization

    KAUST Repository

    Hoefnagels, Johan P.M.

    2013-07-23

    Interfacial delamination is a key reliability challenge in composites and micro-electronic systems due to (high-density) integration of dissimilar materials. Predictive finite element models are used to minimize delamination failures during design, but require accurate interface models to capture (irreversible) crack initiation and propagation behavior observed in experiments. Therefore, an Integrated Global Digital Image Correlation (I-GDIC) strategy is developed for accurate determination of mechanical interface behavior from in-situ delamination experiments. Recently, a novel miniature delamination setup was presented that enables in-situ microscopic characterization of interface delamination while sensitively measuring global load-displacement curves for all mode mixities. Nevertheless, extraction of detailed mechanical interface behavior from measured images is challenging, because deformations are tiny and measurement noise large. Therefore, an advanced I-GDIC methodology is developed which correlates the image patterns by only deforming the images using kinematically-admissible \\'eigenmodes\\' that correspond to the few parameters controlling the interface tractions in an analytic description of the crack tip deformation field, thereby greatly enhancing accuracy and robustness. This method is validated on virtual delamination experiments, simulated using a recently developed self-adaptive cohesive zone (CZ) finite element framework. © The Society for Experimental Mechanics, Inc. 2014.

  17. Using the Global Environment Facility for developing Integrated Conservation and Development (ICAD) models -- Papua New Guinea`s Biodiversity Conservation Management Programme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kula, G.; Jefferies, B. [Dept. of Environment and Conservation, Boroko (Papua New Guinea)

    1995-03-01

    The unprecedented level of support that has been pledged to strengthen Government of Papua New Guinea (GoPNG) biodiversity conservation initiatives has re-identified an important fact that technical and infrastructure support must be complemented by programs that provide realistic opportunities for developing national capacity. Indications are that the next five years will present a range of challenging opportunities for the department to move from the intensive period of planning, which has been the focus of attention during the first phase of the National Forestry and Conservation Action Programme (NFCAP), into a sustained period of policy and project application. This paper examines processes under which strengthening programs contribute to national development objectives and complement accomplishment of the Department of Environment and Conservation Strategic Plan. An overview of the Global Environment Facility-Integrated Conservation and Development (ICAD) Project and coordination effort that are being made for biodiversity conservation projects in Papua New Guinea, are addressed.

  18. Integrating Global Poverty into Mainstream Business Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paton, Bruce; Harris-Boundy, Jason; Melhus, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Most of the products and services discussed in business curricula serve a small portion of humanity. But the great majority of economic growth over the next few decades is expected to occur in emerging and frontier markets. This emerging reality increases the urgency for including topics related to global poverty, unmet human needs, and emergence…

  19. Integrating Global Poverty into Mainstream Business Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paton, Bruce; Harris-Boundy, Jason; Melhus, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Most of the products and services discussed in business curricula serve a small portion of humanity. But the great majority of economic growth over the next few decades is expected to occur in emerging and frontier markets. This emerging reality increases the urgency for including topics related to global poverty, unmet human needs, and emergence…

  20. Low Frequency Variability In Globally Integrated Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation

    OpenAIRE

    Sriver, Ryan; Huber, Matthew

    2006-01-01

    Surface wind and temperature records from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Reanalysis (ERA-40) Project are used to estimate low-frequency variations in globally integrated tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from 1958 to 2001. For the first time, the annually integrated power dissipation (PD) is explicitly calculated on a global scale, and results show an upward trend in PD during much of the ERA-40 project period, although we argue this is at least partially due to...

  1. ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL INTEGRATION PROCESSES: SOUTH AFRICA, ASIA-PACIFIC REGION AND RUSSIA

    OpenAIRE

    Natalia Victorovna Kuznetsova, Natalia Alexandrovna Vorobeva

    2015-01-01

    The paper examines the problem of global integration processes in regions of Africa, Asia and Russia. Based on migration flows, estimation of integration indexes, we investigate the historical integration development of these regions and identify the important features for future international cooperation and integration. This article presents the preliminary results of the gravity model that we constructed using the features of Asia-Pacific region. We concluded that differences and similarit...

  2. A global HMX decomposition model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hobbs, M.L.

    1996-12-01

    HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine) decomposes by competing reaction pathways to form various condensed and gas-phase intermediate and final products. Gas formation is related to the development of nonuniform porosity and high specific surface areas prior to ignition in cookoff events. Such thermal damage enhances shock sensitivity and favors self-supported accelerated burning. The extent of HMX decomposition in highly confined cookoff experiments remains a major unsolved experimental and modeling problem. The present work is directed at determination of global HMX kinetics useful for predicting the elapsed time to thermal runaway (ignition) and the extent of decomposition at ignition. Kinetic rate constants for a six step engineering based global mechanism were obtained using gas formation rates measured by Behrens at Sandia National Laboratories with his Simultaneous Modulated Beam Mass Spectrometer (STMBMS) experimental apparatus. The six step global mechanism includes competition between light gas (H[sub 2]Awe, HCN, CO, H[sub 2]CO, NO, N[sub 2]Awe) and heavy gas (C[sub 2]H[sub 6]N[sub 2]Awe and C[sub 4]H[sub 10]N0[sub 2]) formation with zero order sublimation of HMX and the mononitroso analog of HMX (mn-HMX), C[sub 4]H[sub 8]N[sub 8]Awe[sub 7]. The global mechanism was applied to the highly confined, One Dimensional Time to eXplosion (ODTX) experiment and hot cell experiments by suppressing the sublimation of HMX and mn-HMX. An additional gas-phase reaction was also included to account for the gas-phase reaction of N[sub 2]Awe with H[sub 2]CO. Predictions compare adequately to the STMBMS data, ODTX data, and hot cell data. Deficiencies in the model and future directions are discussed.

  3. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innovation for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utilizing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to accelerate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  4. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  5. Integration of MODIS land and atmosphere products with a coupled-process model to estimate gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration from 1 km to global scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Youngryel; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Kobayashi, Hideki; van Ingen, Catharine; Li, Jie; Black, T. Andy; Beringer, Jason; van Gorsel, Eva; Knohl, Alexander; Law, Beverly E.; Roupsard, Olivier

    2011-12-01

    We propose the Breathing Earth System Simulator (BESS), an upscaling approach to quantify global gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration using MODIS with a spatial resolution of 1-5 km and a temporal resolution of 8 days. This effort is novel because it is the first system that harmonizes and utilizes MODIS Atmosphere and Land products on the same projection and spatial resolution over the global land. This enabled us to use the MODIS Atmosphere products to calculate atmospheric radiative transfer for visual and near infrared radiation wave bands. Then we coupled atmospheric and canopy radiative transfer processes, with models that computed leaf photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and transpiration on the sunlit and shaded portions of the vegetation and soil. At the annual time step, the mass and energy fluxes derived from BESS showed strong linear relations with measurements of solar irradiance (r2 = 0.95, relative bias: 8%), gross primary productivity (r2 = 0.86, relative bias: 5%) and evapotranspiration (r2 = 0.86, relative bias: 15%) in data from 33 flux towers that cover seven plant functional types across arctic to tropical climatic zones. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration computed in BESS were most sensitive to leaf area index and solar irradiance, respectively. We quantified the mean global terrestrial estimates of gross primary productivity and evapotranpiration between 2001 and 2003 as 118 ± 26 PgC yr-1 and 500 ± 104 mm yr-1 (equivalent to 63,000 ± 13,100 km3 yr-1), respectively. BESS-derived gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration estimates were consistent with the estimates from independent machine-learning, data-driven products, but the process-oriented structure has the advantage of diagnosing sensitivity of mechanisms. The process-based BESS is able to offer gridded biophysical variables everywhere from local to the total global land scales with an 8-day interval over

  6. Takaful Models and Global Practices

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    There is a global interest in Islamic finance in general and Takāful in particular. The main feature that differentiates Takāful services from conventional ones is Sharī‟ah compliance nature of these services. Investors are taking keen interest in this potential market as Muslims constitute about one fourth of the world population (Muslim population, 2006). To streamline operations of a Takāful company, management and Sharī‟ah experts have developed different operational models for Takāful bu...

  7. Global Properties of Integrable Hamiltonian Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lukina, O.V.; Takens, F.; Broer, H.W.

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with Lagrangian bundles which are symplectic torus bundles that occur in integrable Hamiltonian systems. We review the theory of obstructions to triviality, in particular monodromy, as well as the ensuing classification problems which involve the Chern and Lagrange class. Our

  8. Global Properties of Integrable Hamiltonian Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lukina, O.V.; Takens, F.; Broer, H.W.

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with Lagrangian bundles which are symplectic torus bundles that occur in integrable Hamiltonian systems. We review the theory of obstructions to triviality, in particular monodromy, as well as the ensuing classification problems which involve the Chern and Lagrange class. Our approa

  9. Integrated astrophysical modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weaver, T. A.; Eastman, R. G.; Dubois, P.; Eltgroth, P. G.; Gentile, N.; Jedamzik, K.; Wilson, J. R.

    1997-06-03

    In this project, we have developed prototype techniques for defining and extending a variety of astrophysical modeling capabilities, including those involving multidimensional hydrodynamics, complex transport, and flexibly-coupled equation-of state and nuclear reaction networks. As expected, this project is having both near-term payoffs in understanding complex astrophysical phenomena, as well as significant spin-offs in terms of people and ideas to related ASCI code efforts. Most of our work in the first part of this project was focused on the modularization, extension, and initial integration of 4 previously separate and incommensurate codes: the stellar evolution/explosion code KEPLER; the non-LTE spectral line transport code, EDDINGTON, used for modeling supernovae spectra; the 3-D smooth particle hydro code, PIP; and the discontinuous-finite-element, 3D hydro module from the lCF3D code.

  10. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R.; Gimeno, B. S.; Bermejo, V.; Elvira, S.; Martin, F.; Palacios, M.; Rodriguez, E.; Donaire, I. [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  11. Global challenges in integrated coastal zone management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    place in Arendal, Norway between 3-7 July 2011. The main objective of the Symposium was to present current knowledge and to address issues on advice and management related to the coastal zone. The major themes of papers included in this book are: Coastal habitats and ecosystem services Adaptation...... integration of data and information in policy and management, combining expertise from nature and social science, to reach a balanced and sustainable development of the coastal zone. This important book comprises the proceedings of The International Symposium on Integrated Coastal Zone Management, which took....../mitigation to change in coastal systems Coastal governance Linking science and management Comprising a huge wealth of information, this timely and well-edited volume is essential reading for all those involved in coastal zone management around the globe. All libraries in research establishments and universities where...

  12. Mycorrhizal fungi and global land surface models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzostek, E. R.; Fisher, J. B.; Shi, M.; Phillips, R.

    2013-12-01

    In the current generation of Land Surface Models (LSMs), the representation of coupled carbon (C) and nutrient cycles does not account for allocation of C by plants to mycorrhizal fungi in exchange for limiting nutrients. Given that the amount of C transferred to mycorrhizae can exceed 20% of net primary production (NPP), mycorrhizae can supply over half of the nitrogen (N) needed to support NPP, and that large majority of plants form associations with mycorrhizae; integrating these mechanisms into LSMs may significantly alter our understanding of the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating climate change. Here, we present results from the integration of a mycorrhizal framework into a cutting-edge global plant nitrogen model -- Fixation & Uptake of Nitrogen (FUN; Fisher et al., 2010) -- that can be coupled into existing LSMs. In this mycorrhizal framework, the C cost of N acquisition varies as a function of mycorrhizal type with: (1) plants that support arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) benefiting when N is plentiful and (2) plants that support ectomycorrhizae (ECM) benefiting when N is limiting. At the plot scale (15 x 15m), the My-FUN model improved predictions of retranslocation, N uptake, and the amount of C transferred into the soil relative to the base model across 45 plots that vary in mycorrhizal type in Indiana, USA. At the ecosystem scale, when we coupled this new framework into the Community Land Model (CLM-CN), the model estimated lower C uptake than the base model and more accurately predicted C uptake at the Morgan Monroe State Forest AmeriFlux site. These results suggest that the inclusion of a mycorrhizal framework into LSMs will enhance our ability to predict feedbacks between global change and the terrestrial biosphere.

  13. Global integration of European tuna markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-Toribio, Ramòn; Guillotreau, Patrice; Mongruel, Rémi

    2010-07-01

    This paper evaluates the degree of integration between the world market and the major European marketplaces of frozen and canned tuna through both vertical and horizontal price relationships. Spatial linkages are investigated horizontally in order to estimate the connection between the European market and the world-wide market on the primary stage of the value chain. One of the key results is the high level of market integration at the ex-vessel stage, and the price leadership of yellowfin tuna over skipjack tuna. The same approach is applied at the ex-factory level. Basically, the European market for final goods appears to be segmented between the Northern countries consuming low-priced canned skipjack tuna imported from Asia (mainly Thailand) and the Southern countries (Italy, Spain) processing and importing yellowfin-based products sold at higher prices. France appears to be an intermediate market where both products are consumed. The former market is found to be well integrated to the world market and can be considered to be competitive, but there is a suspicion of market power being exercised on the latter. Price relationships are therefore tested vertically between the price of frozen tuna paid by the canneries and the price of canned fish in both Italy and France. The two species show an opposite pattern in prices transmission along the value chain: price changes along the chain are far better transmitted for the “global” skipjack tuna than for the more “European” yellowfin tuna. The results are discussed, along with their implications for the fishing industry.

  14. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  15. Rethinking global health research: towards integrative expertise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacLachlan Malcolm

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Bamako Call for Action on Research for Health stresses the importance of inter-disciplinary, inter-ministerial and inter-sectoral working. This challenges much of our current research and postgraduate research training in health, which mostly seeks to produce narrowly focused content specialists. We now need to compliment this type of research and research training, by offering alternative pathways that seek to create expertise, not only in specific narrow content areas, but also in the process and context of research, as well as in the interaction of these different facets of knowledge. Such an approach, developing 'integrative expertise', could greatly facilitate better research utilisation, helping policy makers and practitioners work through more evidence-based practice and across traditional research boundaries.

  16. Domestic change in the face of European Integration and Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2011-01-01

    Before the early 2000s, research on Europeanization and globalization developed largely independently of each other. Since then a limited, yet increasing, number of studies have shown an interest in investigating and differentiating between the domestic implications of European integration - known...... as Europeanization - and trends which are usually seen as having a broader global application including market liberalization, the construction of global institutions and policies. While research concerned with domestic change in the face of European integration and globalization in itself is a reaction to pressing...... accounts of domestic change. Drawing on methodologies known from comparative politics and discourse analysis, the article argues in favour of three methodological moves: (1) from top-down towards bottom-up methodological set-ups; (2) from counterfactual analysis towards compound temporal comparative...

  17. AGILE: Autonomous Global Integrated Language Exploitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    using MADA Due to the productive morphology of Arabic, there are a very large number of word forms observed in Arabic texts. Hence the Arabic language...models are very sparse and OOV rates tend to be high. We have investigated a morphological decomposition technique using the MADA toolkit which...performs both decomposition and root normalization and complete Arabic STT systems have been built using MADA -based processing. To obtain a word-level

  18. A Global Climate Model for Instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, James E.

    This paper describes a simple global climate model useful in a freshman or sophomore level course in climatology. There are three parts to the paper. The first part describes the model, which is a global model of surface air temperature averaged over latitude and longitude. Samples of the types of calculations performed in the model are provided.…

  19. The Effect Of IFRS Adoption On Global Market Integration

    OpenAIRE

    Francis Cai; Hannah Wong

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the effect of the adoption of international financial accounting standards (IFRS) on global capital market integration, measure by correlation matrix of the stock market index returns. We investigate a sample of countries that have adopted IFRS as their accounting standards for listed companies.  Our results are consistent with the suggestion that these markets will have a higher degree of integration among them after their IFRS adoption as compared to the period before th...

  20. Polynomial search and global modeling: Two algorithms for modeling chaos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangiarotti, S; Coudret, R; Drapeau, L; Jarlan, L

    2012-10-01

    Global modeling aims to build mathematical models of concise description. Polynomial Model Search (PoMoS) and Global Modeling (GloMo) are two complementary algorithms (freely downloadable at the following address: http://www.cesbio.ups-tlse.fr/us/pomos_et_glomo.html) designed for the modeling of observed dynamical systems based on a small set of time series. Models considered in these algorithms are based on ordinary differential equations built on a polynomial formulation. More specifically, PoMoS aims at finding polynomial formulations from a given set of 1 to N time series, whereas GloMo is designed for single time series and aims to identify the parameters for a selected structure. GloMo also provides basic features to visualize integrated trajectories and to characterize their structure when it is simple enough: One allows for drawing the first return map for a chosen Poincaré section in the reconstructed space; another one computes the Lyapunov exponent along the trajectory. In the present paper, global modeling from single time series is considered. A description of the algorithms is given and three examples are provided. The first example is based on the three variables of the Rössler attractor. The second one comes from an experimental analysis of the copper electrodissolution in phosphoric acid for which a less parsimonious global model was obtained in a previous study. The third example is an exploratory case and concerns the cycle of rainfed wheat under semiarid climatic conditions as observed through a vegetation index derived from a spatial sensor.

  1. Strategic competence management in global service networks: An integrated approach

    OpenAIRE

    Faix, Axel; Budde, Lukas; Friedli, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The paper is based on an industry project in the pharmaceutical industry and describes a holistic approach to integrate competence management, capacity planning and strategic forecasting in the field of service operations in a global service network. Goal of the paper is to introduce a methodology combining operations and strategic management.

  2. THE DEGREE OF STATE'S GLOBALIZATION ASSESSMENT IN ASPECTS OF CONVERGENCE AND INTEGRATION IN THE WORLD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Kharlamova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Analyses of approaches and methods to assess processes of integration and convergence adjusted the direction of the goal of the study – to assess the degree of globalization for a state by means of alternative (authors’ approach, taking into account current characteristics and trends of this process. Based on the known techniques to assess the degree of globalization as “European Integration Index for Eastern Partnership Coun-tries” and “KOF Index of Globalization”, we have expanded the existing methodology and developed an alternative index of the degree of globaliza-tion of the country, based on the model of perfect globalized and fully not globalized countries. Alternative globalization index and KOF Index of Globalization were compared to analyze the practical efficiency of each. Comparative characteristics of the alternative globalization index of the country and KOF Index of Globalization confirmed the practical efficiency and simplicity in estimation for authors’ index that is based on evidence and giving adequate evaluation. The development of new methods in this area is in demand as never before. We have taken the first steps toward an alternative approach analysis of the phenomenon of globalization.

  3. Branes and integrable lattice models

    CERN Document Server

    Yagi, Junya

    2016-01-01

    This is a brief review of my work on the correspondence between four-dimensional $\\mathcal{N} = 1$ supersymmetric field theories realized by brane tilings and two-dimensional integrable lattice models. I explain how to construct integrable lattice models from extended operators in partially topological quantum field theories, and elucidate the correspondence as an application of this construction.

  4. Integrated Inflammatory Stress (ITIS) Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsgaard, Elisabeth O.; Hjorth, Poul G.; Olufsen, Mette S.

    2017-01-01

    maintains a long-term level of the stress hormone cortisol which is also anti-inflammatory. A new integrated model of the interaction between these two subsystems of the inflammatory system is proposed and coined the integrated inflammatory stress (ITIS) model. The coupling mechanisms describing...

  5. Global Models of Planet Formation and Evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Mordasini, C; Dittkrist, K -M; Jin, S; Alibert, Y

    2014-01-01

    Despite the increase in observational data on exoplanets, the processes that lead to the formation of planets are still not well understood. But thanks to the high number of known exoplanets, it is now possible to look at them as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis. Its key element is a global model of planet formation and evolution that directly predicts observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disk. To do so, global models build on many specialized models that address one specific physical process. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disk (gas and solids), the (proto)planet (solid core, gaseous envelope, and atmosphere), and finally the interactions (migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches in different global models and id...

  6. Dynamic description logic model for data integration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guoshun HAO; Shilong MA; Yuefei SUI; Jianghua LV

    2008-01-01

    Data integration is the issue of retrieving and combining data residing at distributed and heterogeneous sources,and of providing users with transparent access without being aware of the details of the sources.Data integration is a very important issue because it deals with data infrastructure issues of coordinated computing systems.Despite its importance,the following key challenges make data integration one of the longest standing problems around:1) how to solve the system heterogeneity;2) how to build a global model;3) how to process queries automatically and correctly;and 4) how to solve semantic heterogeneity. This paper presents an extended dynamic description logic language to describe systems with dynamic actions.By this language,a-universal and unified model for relational database systems and a model for data integration are presented.This paper presents a universal and unified description logic model for relational databases.The model is universal because any relational database system can be automatically transformed to the model;it is unified because it integrates three essential components of relational databases together:description logic knowledge bases modeling the relational data,atomic modalities modeling the atomic relational operations,and combined modalities modeling the combined relational operations-queries. Furthermore,a description logic model for data integration is proposed which contains four layers of ontologies.Based on the model,a solution for each key challenge is proposed:a universal model eliminates system heterogeneity;a novel global model including three ontologies is proposed with some important benefits;a query process mechanism is provided by which user queries can be decomposed to queries over the sources;and for solving the semantic heterogeneity,this paper provides a framework under which semantic relations can be expressed and inferred. In summary,this paper presents a dynamic knowledge base framework by an extended

  7. Search of novel model for integrative medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, Bhushan; Mutalik, Gururaj

    2014-03-01

    This article provides global and Indian scenario with strengths and limitations of present health care system. Affordability, accessibility and availability of health care coupled with disproportionate growth and double burden of diseases have become major concerns in India. This article emphasizes need for mindset change from illness-disease-drug centric curative to person-health-wellness centric preventive and promotive approaches. It highlights innovation deficit faced pharmaceutical industry and drugs being withdrawn from market for safety reasons. Medical pluralism is a growing trend and people are exploring various options including modern, traditional, complementary and alternative medicine. In such a situation, knowledge from Ayurveda, yoga, Chinese medicine and acupuncture may play an important role. We can evolve a suitable model by integrating modern and traditional systems of medicine for affordable health care. In the larger interest of global community, Indian and Chinese systems should share knowledge and experiences for mutual intellectual enrichments and work together to evolve a novel model of integrative medicine.

  8. Modeling the Volatility in Global Fertilizer Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to estimate the volatility in global fertilizer prices. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARC

  9. Integrated Care Model Developed by the Rwanda Biomedical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Integrated Care Model Developed by the Rwanda Biomedical Center for Decentralization of ... Global and national burden of mental disorders has been increasingly ... was reactive, centralized, and overwhelmed by the need for their services.

  10. Geographic integration of hepatitis C virus: A global threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daw, Mohamed A; El-Bouzedi, Abdallah A; Ahmed, Mohamed O; Dau, Aghnyia A; Agnan, Mohamed M; Drah, Aisha M

    2016-01-01

    AIM To assess hepatitis C virus (HCV) geographic integration, evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of HCV worldwide and propose how to diminish its burden. METHODS A literature search of published articles was performed using PubMed, MEDLINE and other related databases up to December 2015. A critical data assessment and analysis regarding the epidemiological integration of HCV was carried out using the meta-analysis method. RESULTS The data indicated that HCV has been integrated immensely over time and through various geographical regions worldwide. The history of HCV goes back to 1535 but between 1935 and 1965 it exhibited a rapid, exponential spread. This integration is clearly seen in the geo-epidemiology and phylogeography of HCV. HCV integration can be mirrored either as intra-continental or trans-continental. Migration, drug trafficking and HCV co-infection, together with other potential risk factors, have acted as a vehicle for this integration. Evidence shows that the geographic integration of HCV has been important in the global and regional distribution of HCV. CONCLUSION HCV geographic integration is clearly evident and this should be reflected in the prevention and treatment of this ongoing pandemic. PMID:27878104

  11. Are South East Europe stock markets integrated with regional and global stock markets?

    OpenAIRE

    Guidi, Francesco; Ugur, Mehmet

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses whether stock markets of South East Europe (SEE) have become more integrated with regional and global stock markets during 2000s. Using a variety of co integration methodologies we show that SEE stock markets have no long-run relationship with their mature counterparts. This means that SEE markets might be immunized to external shocks. We also model time varying correlations among these markets by using Multivariate Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroschedastic (...

  12. Global model structures for ∗-modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Böhme, Benjamin

    We extend Schwede's work on the unstable global homotopy theory of orthogonal spaces and L-spaces to the category of ∗-modules (i.e., unstable S-modules). We prove a theorem which transports model structures and their properties from L-spaces to ∗-modules and show that the resulting global model...... structure for ∗-modules is monoidally Quillen equivalent to that of orthogonal spaces. As a consequence, there are induced Quillen equivalences between the associated model categories of monoids, which identify equivalent models for the global homotopy theory of A∞-spaces....

  13. IMMIGRANTS’ INTEGRATION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARMEN UZLĂU

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the European population aging trend, and while the birth rate is still at a low level, the immigrants may contribute to the support of the EU economy and to finance the national social protection systems. But this would be possible only if they have been fully integrated in the host countries, the integration policies being a task of the national governments. The European Union may still offer support and stimulation through financing, policies coordination and good practices exchange facilitation. The new measures should encourage local level actions, including cooperation between local authorities, employers, migrants’ organizations, service providers and local population. Within the EU, there live 20.1 million immigrants (approximately 4% of the entire population coming from outside European area. An important element of the common EU policy on immigration is the one regarding the development of a policy on immigrants’ integration, which should provide a fair treatment within the member states, and guarantee rights and obligations comparable with the ones of the Union citizens.

  14. Intermediary Cities in the territorial integration of Global South

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borja M. Iglesias

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available “Economies of agglomeration” have acted as catalysts of the progress and modernisation of many nations in the Global South but have also contributed to unbalancing the territory, widening the gap between urban and rural populations and the accumulation of high environmental and social deficits. In contrast to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the economies that make up the MINTs (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey have better territorial integration of their urban systems, with intermediate cities that act as “economies of intermediation” with the rural hinterlands, and which could contribute to achieving the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals. The United Nations Habitat iii of October 2016 placed intermediary cities at the heart of the New Urban Agenda. The aim is to promote national urban policies in many of the economies of the Global South, allowing them to strengthen their role as the main instrument of economic integration and regional cohesion.

  15. Implementation of U.S. Global Goals: Continental Integration Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaroslava Stolyarchuk

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The article provides efficiency assessment regarding existing mechanisms of the U.S. national interests’ implementation at the global level in terms of international competition aggravation and formation of the new global economic competition centers. Based on comparative analysis of the leverage for U.S. leadership in global competition it has been proven that currently the highest efficiency is demonstrated by the integration strategies of the USA in Latin America focused on maximizing implementation of the economic interests of U.S. transnational corporations in the region. It has been proven that the observed profound asymmetries regarding socio-economic development of the North and Latin America countries objectively requires implementation of the effective institutional mechanisms for leveling the negative effects generated by the trade and investment liberalization processes.

  16. Integrating place-specific livelihood and equity outcomes into global assessments of bioenergy deployment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Felix Creutzig; E. Corbera (Esteve); S. Bolwig (Simon); C.A. Hunsberger (Carol)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Integrated assessment models suggest that the large-scale deployment of bioenergy could contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. However, such a shift would intensify the global competition for land, with possible consequences for 1.5 billion smallhold

  17. Perception of global gestalt by temporal integration in simultanagnosia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huberle, Elisabeth; Rupek, Paul; Lappe, Markus; Karnath, Hans-Otto

    2009-01-01

    Patients with bilateral parieto-occipital brain damage may show intact processing of individual objects, while their perception of multiple objects is disturbed at the same time. The deficit is termed 'simultanagnosia' and has been discussed in the context of restricted visual working memory and impaired visuo-spatial attention. Recent observations indicated that the recognition of global shapes can be modulated by the spatial distance between individual objects in patients with simultanagnosia and thus is not an all-or-nothing phenomenon depending on spatial continuity. However, grouping mechanisms not only require the spatial integration of visual information, but also involve integration processes over time. The present study investigated motion-defined integration mechanisms in two patients with simultanagnosia. We applied hierarchical organized stimuli of global objects that consisted of coherently moving dots ('shape-from-motion'). In addition, we tested the patients' ability to recognize biological motion by presenting characteristic human movements ('point-light-walker'). The data revealed largely preserved perception of biological motion, while the perception of motion-defined shapes was impaired. Our findings suggest separate mechanisms underlying the recognition of biological motion and shapes defined by coherently moving dots. They thus argue against a restriction in the overall capacity of visual working memory over time as a general explanation for the impaired global shape recognition in patients with simultanagnosia.

  18. Transport of nutrients from land to sea: Global modeling approaches and uncertainty analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beusen, A.H.W.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis presents four examples of global models developed as part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). They describe different components of global biogeochemical cycles of the nutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silicon (Si), with a focus on approaches to

  19. Modeling for integrated micromanipulator

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    荣伟彬; 曲东升; 孙立宁; 楼朝飞; 蔡鹤皋

    2003-01-01

    According to the principle of a piezoelectric scanner, a three degree-of-freedom (D. O. F) micromanipulator driven by piezoelectric tubes was developed to realize the integration of mechanism and actuator.Through the static analysis of the deflection of piezoelectric tube into four quadrants, a formula has been establish for the relationship between micro-displacement and driving voltage and accordingly, the angular error is analyzed. Experiments show that the micro-displacement calculated using the formula is in good agreement with the measurements. The relative error is less than 5%. Some performances of the micromanipulator show that it can be applied to some micromanipulations.

  20. Integrating developing country manufacturing industries into global supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fasika Bete Georgise

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Due to globalization of manufacturing activities, the arena of competition and competitiveness advantage is moving from firms towards supply chains and networks. With the recent advancement of information and communication technologies this participation are becoming as common business practice in developed countries firms. Companies were more integrated into the world market for the global nature of the sourcing, manufacturing and distribution. These changes create both challenges and opportunities for the manufacturing industries in developing countries. The objective of this paper is to examine the level of inter-organizational and intra-organizational supply chain integration practices in developing country, Ethiopia.Design/methodology/approach: An industrial questionnaires survey was used to collect the current practices of the manufacturing industries in Ethiopia as an example of the developing countries. Descriptive statistics is primarily used for the analysis.Findings: Results show a low level of supply chain relationship both in intra and inter organizational supply chain integration level among members. Accordingly, such issues require much attention to facilitate a greater integration within the supply chains in the Ethiopian manufacturing industries.Research limitations/implications: The paper focuses on examining the practices of Ethiopian manufacturing industries empirical data. The interpretation of results should be taken with prudence.Originality/Value: The manufacturing industry in developing countries (MIDC has been a part of the global supply chains for long time as a supplier of raw material and manufacturer of primary products. Currently, the MIDC is trying to access the different markets segment of the world even with new products starting from their local market to the complex and dynamic international market. Nevertheless, their supply chains are inefficient and hence, their competitiveness level far from the

  1. Advancing waterborne pathogen modelling: lessons from global nutrient export models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeulen, L.C.; Hofstra, N.; Kroeze, C.; Medema, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    Waterborne pathogens cause health problems worldwide. A global waterborne pathogen model could provide valuable new insights for data-sparse regions, by identifying pathogen hotspots and evaluating global change and risk management scenarios. Global waterborne pathogen modelling is not as advanced a

  2. Integrated Debugging of Modelica Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Pop

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The high abstraction level of equation-based object-oriented (EOO languages such as Modelica has the drawback that programming and modeling errors are often hard to find. In this paper we present integrated static and dynamic debugging methods for Modelica models and a debugger prototype that addresses several of those problems. The goal is an integrated debugging framework that combines classical debugging techniques with special techniques for equation-based languages partly based on graph visualization and interaction. To our knowledge, this is the first Modelica debugger that supports both equation-based transformational and algorithmic code debugging in an integrated fashion.

  3. Contemporary Globalization, the Transition from Border to Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Iftode

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In a new global economy, which is in a constant growth, more companies or nations are in a position to export their own business model, searching for new markets, more favorable production costs, or diffent strategies leading to performance. This paper does not clame an exhaustive analysis, the aim is to capture some aspects of the comtemporany realities, because most of the aspects of the globalization can be passed throgh a cultural register. As a reference model, we used Locke‟s consensual inductive system, which involves the collections of opinions of specialist in the field with objective positions.

  4. Semantic Data Integration and Ontology Use within the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Global Water Cycle Data Integration System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzi, W.; Fekete, B.; Piasecki, M.; McGuinness, D.; Fox, P.; Lawford, R.; Vorosmarty, C.; Houser, P.; Imam, B.

    2008-12-01

    The inadequacies of water cycle observations for monitoring long-term changes in the global water system, as well as their feedback into the climate system, poses a major constraint on sustainable development of water resources and improvement of water management practices. Hence, The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) has established Task WA-08-01, "Integration of in situ and satellite data for water cycle monitoring," an integrative initiative combining different types of satellite and in situ observations related to key variables of the water cycle with model outputs for improved accuracy and global coverage. This presentation proposes development of the Rapid, Integrated Monitoring System for the Water Cycle (Global-RIMS)--already employed by the GEO Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN-H)--as either one of the main components or linked with the Asian system to constitute the modeling system of GEOSS for water cycle monitoring. We further propose expanded, augmented capability to run multiple grids to embrace some of the heterogeneous methods and formats of the Earth Science, Hydrology, and Hydraulic Engineering communities. Different methodologies are employed by the Earth Science (land surface modeling), the Hydrological (GIS), and the Hydraulic Engineering Communities; with each community employing models that require different input data. Data will be routed as input variables to the models through web services, allowing satellite and in situ data to be integrated together within the modeling framework. Semantic data integration will provide the automation to enable this system to operate in near-real-time. Multiple data collections for ground water, precipitation, soil moisture satellite data, such as SMAP, and lake data will require multiple low level ontologies, and an upper level ontology will permit user-friendly water management knowledge to be synthesized. These ontologies will have to have overlapping terms mapped and linked together. so

  5. Modelling Croatian Export Dynamics Using Global Macroeconometric Model

    OpenAIRE

    Jakšić, Saša; Žmuk, Berislav

    2014-01-01

    Five years following the occurrence of the global economic and financial crisis, Croatia is one of the few countries in the region whose export has still not recovered to the pre-crisis level. In order to properly account for international linkages and possible crisis spillover effects, a Global Vector AutoRegressive (GVAR) model is defined. The GVAR model is a consistent global macroeconometric model which enables modelling interactions between Croatia and a set of Central and Southeast Euro...

  6. Integrated Modeling Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    American Economic Review , 71:1 (March 1981). 181 J.M. Jones and F. Zufryden. "Adding Explanatory Variables to a Consumer Purchase Behavior Model: An...McCall. "An Operational Measure of Liquidity," The American Economic Review , 761 (March 1986). WMSI Working Paper 329. 212 Nelson, R., R. Sarin, and R

  7. HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Global

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and U.S. Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) 3-day, daily forecast at approximately 9-km (1/12-degree)...

  8. New global ICT-based business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    . Contents: The Theoretical History and Background of Business Models The Th eoretical Background of Business Model Innovation ICT - a Key Enabler in Innovating New Global Business Models The NEWGIBM Research Methodology The Analytical Model for NEWGIBM Industry Service - Technology Centre The KMD Case Smart...... House Case The Nano Solar Case The Master Cat Case The Pitfalls Of The Blue Ocean Strategy - Implications Of "The Six Paths Framework" Network-Based Innovation - Combining Exploration and Exploitation? Innovating New Business Models in Inter-firm Collaboration NEW Global Business Models - What Did......The New Global Business model (NEWGIBM) book describes the background, theory references, case studies, results and learning imparted by the NEWGIBM project, which is supported by ICT, to a research group during the period from 2005-2011. The book is a result of the efforts and the collaborative...

  9. 76 FR 5834 - International Business Machines Corporation, Global Technology Services Business Unit, Integrated...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-02

    ... Employment and Training Administration International Business Machines Corporation, Global Technology Services Business Unit, Integrated Technology Services, Cost and Expense Team, Payroll, Travel and Mobility... Business Machines Corporation, Global Technology Services Business Unit, Integrated Technology...

  10. An Integrated Global Atmospheric Composition Observing System: Progress and Impediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, T. J.

    2016-12-01

    In 2003-2005, a vision of an integrated global observing system for atmospheric composition and air quality emerged through several international forums (IGACO, 2004; GEO, 2005). In the decade since, the potential benefits of such a system for improving our understanding and mitigation of health and climate impacts of air pollution have become clearer and the needs more urgent. Some progress has been made towards the goal: technology has developed, capabilities have been demonstrated, and lessons have been learned. In Europe, the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service has blazed a trail for other regions to follow. Powerful new components of the emerging global system (e.g. a constellation of geostationary instruments) are expected to come on-line in the near term. But there are important gaps in the emerging system that are likely to keep us from achieving for some time the full benefits that were envisioned more than a decade ago. This presentation will explore the components and benefits of an integrated global observing system for atmospheric composition and air quality, some of the gaps and obstacles that exist in our current capabilities and institutions, and efforts that may be needed to achieve the envisioned system.

  11. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models; Ratios de Aprendizaje Tecnologico en Modelos Energeticos Globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varela, M.

    2001-07-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this tend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy systems including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs.

  12. Integrated Computational Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    68.5%, 9.6% and 21.9%, respectively. The alloy density and Vickers microhardness were ρ = 8.23 ± 0.01 g/cm3 and Hv = 5288 ± 1 MPa. [3...and 3-D. Techniques to mechanically test materials at smaller scales were developed to better inform the deformation models. Also methods were...situ microscale tension testing technique was adapted to enable microscale fatigue testing on tensile dog-bone specimens. Microscale tensile fatigue

  13. Toward the Development of an Integrated Global Observing Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, Leslie Bermann

    1998-01-01

    In the current environment of stagnant or shrinking budgets for space research and exploration, nations can no longer afford to develop costly systems in a vacuum. Greater coordination of existing and planned systems, both among space agencies and between the space agencies and user communities, will enable the maximization of global investments in all areas of space-related research. In this manner, a group of space agencies has embarked on an initiative to link their activities in Earth observation with complementary observation programs. The goal of this initiative is to develop a comprehensive strategy for enhanced levels of support to scientific, operational and research communities. The space agencies, through the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), have embraced the concept of an Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS), primarily in fulfillment of their own set of objectives and to derive greater benefit from both operating and planned Earth observing systems. Through working together, CEOS agencies are in a position to plan their Earth observation projects with the minimum of unnecessary overlap and to devise joint strategies for addressing serious gaps in their observation capabilities. Ultimately, an IGOS should be the joint product of all groups involved in the collection and analysis of both space-based and in-situ data. CEOS is actively seeking IGOS -related partnerships with the Global Climate, Global Ocean and Global Terrestrial Observing Systems, their intergovernmental Sponsors, the International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research, and other scientific and user organizations including the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and the World Climate Research Programme.

  14. Toward the Development of an Integrated Global Observing Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, Leslie Bermann

    1998-01-01

    In the current environment of stagnant or shrinking budgets for space research and exploration, nations can no longer afford to develop costly systems in a vacuum. Greater coordination of existing and planned systems, both among space agencies and between the space agencies and user communities, will enable the maximization of global investments in all areas of space-related research. In this manner, a group of space agencies has embarked on an initiative to link their activities in Earth observation with complementary observation programs. The goal of this initiative is to develop a comprehensive strategy for enhanced levels of support to scientific, operational and research communities. The space agencies, through the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), have embraced the concept of an Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS), primarily in fulfillment of their own set of objectives and to derive greater benefit from both operating and planned Earth observing systems. Through working together, CEOS agencies are in a position to plan their Earth observation projects with the minimum of unnecessary overlap and to devise joint strategies for addressing serious gaps in their observation capabilities. Ultimately, an IGOS should be the joint product of all groups involved in the collection and analysis of both space-based and in-situ data. CEOS is actively seeking IGOS -related partnerships with the Global Climate, Global Ocean and Global Terrestrial Observing Systems, their intergovernmental Sponsors, the International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research, and other scientific and user organizations including the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and the World Climate Research Programme.

  15. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  16. Integrated Global Observation Strategy - Ozone and Atmospheric Chemistry Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilsenrath, Ernest; Readings, C. J.; Kaye, J.; Mohnen, V.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The "Long Term Continuity of Stratospheric Ozone Measurements and Atmospheric Chemistry" project was one of six established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) in response to the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) initiative. IGOS links satellite and ground based systems for global environmental observations. The strategy of this project is to develop a consensus of user requirements including the scientific (SPARC, IGAC, WCRP) and the applications community (WMO, UNEP) and to develop a long-term international plan for ozone and atmospheric chemistry measurements. The major components of the observing system include operational and research (meeting certain criteria) satellite platforms planned by the space faring nations which are integrated with a well supported and sustained ground, aircraft, and balloon measurements program for directed observations as well satellite validation. Highly integrated and continuous measurements of ozone, validation, and reanalysis efforts are essential to meet the international scientific and applications goals. In order to understand ozone trends, climate change, and air quality, it is essential to conduct long term measurements of certain other atmospheric species. These species include key source, radical, and reservoir constituents.

  17. Global MHD Models of the Solar Corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suess, S. T.; Rose, Franklin (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the solar corona are computationally intensive, numerically complex simulations that have produced important new results over the past few years. After a brief overview of how these models usually work, I will address three topics: (1) How these models are now routinely used to predict the morphology of the corona and analyze Earth and space-based remote observations of the Sun; (2) The direct application of these models to the analysis of physical processes in the corona and chromosphere and to the interpretation of in situ solar wind observations; and (3) The use of results from global models to validate the approximations used to make detailed studies of physical processes in the corona that are not otherwise possible using the global models themselves.

  18. Efficient Global Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2012-01-01

    A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

  19. INTEGRATED MECHANISMS FOR APROACHING PRIORITY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES AT GLOBAL LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    iLDIKO iOAN

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Integrated mechanisms for approaching priority environmentalissues at global level. At global level, there are considered priorityenvironmental issues two interdependent processes that are essential for thesupport the processes that provide living conditions and wellbeing for the entirehumankind: climate change and loss of biodiversity. Payments of ecosystemservices became already well-known and applied economic instruments, althoughthere are still many uncertainties in the knowledge of eco-economic interdependencies.The paper discusses these aspects in the first part highlighting advantagesand disadvantages, while in the second part there is analyzed an integratedprogram of the United Nations, which was designed for making progress towardboth climate change, and loss of biodiversity. The REDD program – Reduction ofEmissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation – is addressed to developingcountries and it started in 2008. Based on assessment reports we will try toformulate a number of conclusions regarding the program’s effectiveness.

  20. Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: an integrated application of regional and global climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, Christina M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Cook, Kerry H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

    2010-07-15

    A method for simulating future climate on regional space scales is developed and applied to northern Africa. Simulation with a regional model allows for the horizontal resolution needed to resolve the region's strong meridional gradients and the optimization of parameterizations and land-surface model. The control simulation is constrained by reanalysis data, and realistically represents the present day climate. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) output provides SST and lateral boundary condition anomalies for 2081-2100 under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, and the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is increased to 757 ppmv. A nine-member ensemble of future climate projections is generated by using output from nine AOGCMs. The consistency of precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century is much greater for the regional model ensemble than among the AOGCMs. More than 77% of ensemble members produce the same sign rainfall anomaly over much of northern Africa. For West Africa, the regional model projects wetter conditions in spring, but a mid-summer drought develops during June and July, and the heat stoke risk increases across the Sahel. Wetter conditions resume in late summer, and the likelihood of flooding increases. The regional model generally projects wetter conditions over eastern Central Africa in June and drying during August through September. Severe drought impacts parts of East Africa in late summer. Conditions become wetter in October, but the enhanced rainfall does not compensate for the summertime deficit. The risk of heat stroke increases over this region, although the threat is not projected to be as great as in the Sahel. (orig.)

  1. Separations and safeguards model integration.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cipiti, Benjamin B.; Zinaman, Owen

    2010-09-01

    Research and development of advanced reprocessing plant designs can greatly benefit from the development of a reprocessing plant model capable of transient solvent extraction chemistry. This type of model can be used to optimize the operations of a plant as well as the designs for safeguards, security, and safety. Previous work has integrated a transient solvent extraction simulation module, based on the Solvent Extraction Process Having Interaction Solutes (SEPHIS) code developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, with the Separations and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM) developed at Sandia National Laboratory, as a first step toward creating a more versatile design and evaluation tool. The goal of this work was to strengthen the integration by linking more variables between the two codes. The results from this integrated model show expected operational performance through plant transients. Additionally, ORIGEN source term files were integrated into the SSPM to provide concentrations, radioactivity, neutron emission rate, and thermal power data for various spent fuels. This data was used to generate measurement blocks that can determine the radioactivity, neutron emission rate, or thermal power of any stream or vessel in the plant model. This work examined how the code could be expanded to integrate other separation steps and benchmark the results to other data. Recommendations for future work will be presented.

  2. Global identifiability of linear structural equation models

    CERN Document Server

    Drton, Mathias; Sullivant, Seth

    2010-01-01

    Structural equation models are multivariate statistical models that are defined by specifying noisy functional relationships among random variables. We consider the classical case of linear relationships and additive Gaussian noise terms. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for global identifiability of the model in terms of a mixed graph encoding the linear structural equations and the correlation structure of the error terms. Global identifiability is understood to mean injectivity of the parametrization of the model and is fundamental in particular for applicability of standard statistical methodology.

  3. Developing integrated care. Towards a development model for integrated care

    OpenAIRE

    Minkman, Mirella M.N

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe thesis adresses the phenomenon of integrated care. The implementation of integrated care for patients with a stroke or dementia is studied. Because a generic quality management model for integrated care is lacking, the study works towards building a development model for integrated care. Based on a systematic approach in which a literature study, a delphi study, a concept mapping study and questionnaire research are combined, a development model for integrated care is created....

  4. Developing Integrated Care: Towards a development model for integrated care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.M.N. Minkman (Mirella)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe thesis adresses the phenomenon of integrated care. The implementation of integrated care for patients with a stroke or dementia is studied. Because a generic quality management model for integrated care is lacking, the study works towards building a development model for integrated c

  5. Global navigation satellite systems, inertial navigation, and integration

    CERN Document Server

    Grewal, Mohinder S; Bartone, Chris G

    2013-01-01

    An updated guide to GNSS, and INS, and solutions to real-world GNSS/INS problems with Kalman filtering Written by recognized authorities in the field, this third edition of a landmark work provides engineers, computer scientists, and others with a working familiarity of the theory and contemporary applications of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), Inertial Navigational Systems, and Kalman filters. Throughout, the focus is on solving real-world problems, with an emphasis on the effective use of state-of-the-art integration techniques for those systems, especially the application of Kal

  6. Global satisfactory control for nonlinear integrator processes with long delay

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yiqun YANG; Guobo XIANG

    2007-01-01

    Integrator processes with long delay are difficult to control. Nonlinear characteristics of actuators make the control problem more challenging. A technique is proposed in this paper for global satisfactory control (GSC) of such processes with relay-type nonlinearity. An oscillatory control signal is injected into the nonlinear process; the amplitude and frequency of the oscillatory signal are designed to linearise the nonlinear process in the sense of harmonic analysis; and a state feedback controller is configured to implement GSC over the linearised process. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Modeling of global surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusakova, M. A.; Karlin, L. N.

    2012-04-01

    A model to assess a number of factors, such as total solar irradiance, albedo, greenhouse gases and water vapor, affecting climate change has been developed on the basis of Earth's radiation balance principle. To develop the model solar energy transformation in the atmosphere was investigated. It's a common knowledge, that part of the incoming radiation is reflected into space from the atmosphere, land and water surfaces, and another part is absorbed by the Earth's surface. Some part of outdoing terrestrial radiation is retained in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide) and water vapor. Making use of the regression analysis a correlation between concentration of greenhouse gases, water vapor and global surface air temperature was obtained which, it is turn, made it possible to develop the proposed model. The model showed that even smallest fluctuations of total solar irradiance intensify both positive and negative feedback which give rise to considerable changes in global surface air temperature. The model was used both to reconstruct the global surface air temperature for the 1981-2005 period and to predict global surface air temperature until 2030. The reconstructions of global surface air temperature for 1981-2005 showed the models validity. The model makes it possible to assess contribution of the factors listed above in climate change.

  8. Information exchange in global logistics chains : an application for model-based auditing,

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veenstra, A.W.; Hulstijn, J.; Christiaanse, R.M.J.; Tan, Y.

    2013-01-01

    An integrated data pipeline has been proposed to meet requirements for visibility, supervision and control in global supply chains. How can data integration be used for risk assessment, monitoring and control in global supply chains? We argue that concepts from model-based auditing can be used to mo

  9. World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonovic, Slobodan P

    2002-11-01

    The growing scarcity of fresh and clean water is among the most important issues facing civilization in the 21st century. Despite the growing attention to a chronic, pernicious crisis in world's water resources our ability to correctly assess and predict global water availability, use and balance is still quite limited. An attempt is documented here in modeling global world water resources using system dynamics approach. Water resources sector (quantity and quality) is integrated with five sectors that drive industrial growth: population; agriculture; economy; nonrenewable resources; and persistent pollution. WorldWater model is developed on the basis of the last version of World3 model. Simulations of world water dynamics with WorldWater indicate that there is a strong relationship between the world water resources and future industrial growth of the world. It is also shown that the water pollution is the most important future water issue on the global level.

  10. B2B Integration in Global Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schubert, Petra; Legner, Christine

    2011-01-01

    The competitiveness of businesses is increasingly dependent on their electronic networks with customers, suppliers, and partners. While the strategic and operational impact of external integration and IOS adoption has been extensively studied, much less attention has been paid to the organizational...... and technical design of electronic relationships. The objective of our longitudinal research project is the development of a framework for understanding and explaining B2B integration. Drawing on existing literature and empirical cases we present a reference model (a classification scheme for B2B Integration...... and is independent of specific implementation technologies. In the next stage of the research the emerging reference model will be extended to create an assessment model for analysing the maturity level of a given company in a specific supply chain....

  11. Integrating Biosystem Models Using Waveform Relaxation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Baigent

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Modelling in systems biology often involves the integration of component models into larger composite models. How to do this systematically and efficiently is a significant challenge: coupling of components can be unidirectional or bidirectional, and of variable strengths. We adapt the waveform relaxation (WR method for parallel computation of ODEs as a general methodology for computing systems of linked submodels. Four test cases are presented: (i a cascade of unidirectionally and bidirectionally coupled harmonic oscillators, (ii deterministic and stochastic simulations of calcium oscillations, (iii single cell calcium oscillations showing complex behaviour such as periodic and chaotic bursting, and (iv a multicellular calcium model for a cell plate of hepatocytes. We conclude that WR provides a flexible means to deal with multitime-scale computation and model heterogeneity. Global solutions over time can be captured independently of the solution techniques for the individual components, which may be distributed in different computing environments.

  12. An architecture for integration of multidisciplinary models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Holst, Niels

    2014-01-01

    , Enterprise Application Integration, and Integration Design Patterns. We developed an architecture of a multidisciplinary model integration framework that brings these three aspects of integration together. Service-oriented-based platform independent architecture that enables to establish loosely coupled...

  13. Global transcription regulation of RK2 plasmids: a case study in the combined use of dynamical mathematical models and statistical inference for integration of experimental data and hypothesis exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Christopher M

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background IncP-1 plasmids are broad host range plasmids that have been found in clinical and environmental bacteria. They often carry genes for antibiotic resistance or catabolic pathways. The archetypal IncP-1 plasmid RK2 is a well-characterized biological system, with a fully sequenced and annotated genome and wide range of experimental measurements. Its central control operon, encoding two global regulators KorA and KorB, is a natural example of a negatively self-regulated operon. To increase our understanding of the regulation of this operon, we have constructed a dynamical mathematical model using Ordinary Differential Equations, and employed a Bayesian inference scheme, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, as a way of integrating experimental measurements and a priori knowledge. We also compared MCMC and Metabolic Control Analysis (MCA as approaches for determining the sensitivity of model parameters. Results We identified two distinct sets of parameter values, with different biological interpretations, that fit and explain the experimental data. This allowed us to highlight the proportion of repressor protein as dimers as a key experimental measurement defining the dynamics of the system. Analysis of joint posterior distributions led to the identification of correlations between parameters for protein synthesis and partial repression by KorA or KorB dimers, indicating the necessary use of joint posteriors for correct parameter estimation. Using MCA, we demonstrated that the system is highly sensitive to the growth rate but insensitive to repressor monomerization rates in their selected value regions; the latter outcome was also confirmed by MCMC. Finally, by examining a series of different model refinements for partial repression by KorA or KorB dimers alone, we showed that a model including partial repression by KorA and KorB was most compatible with existing experimental data. Conclusions We

  14. Parameter counting in models with global symmetries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berger, Joshua [Institute for High Energy Phenomenology, Newman Laboratory of Elementary Particle Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)], E-mail: jb454@cornell.edu; Grossman, Yuval [Institute for High Energy Phenomenology, Newman Laboratory of Elementary Particle Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States)], E-mail: yuvalg@lepp.cornell.edu

    2009-05-18

    We present rules for determining the number of physical parameters in models with exact flavor symmetries. In such models the total number of parameters (physical and unphysical) needed to described a matrix is less than in a model without the symmetries. Several toy examples are studied in order to demonstrate the rules. The use of global symmetries in studying the minimally supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) is examined.

  15. The Global Financial Crisis and the Integration of Emerging Stock Markets in Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Hoon Kang

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of volatility spillovers among five Asian stock markets (China, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan and examines how the global financial crisis of 2008 has influenced volatility transmission among Asian stock markets. The results from a VAR(1-bivariate GARCH model indicate strong volatility linkages between the Chinese stock market and the four emerging stock markets since the global financial crisis, suggesting the intensification of stock market integration in Asia since the crisis increases the integration of Chinese stock market in Asia. This strong integration of the markets is important in that the intensified linkages can reduce potential gains from the diversification of international equity portfolios.

  16. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  17. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  18. Modeling global nutrient export from watersheds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze, C.; Bouwman, L.; Seitzinger, S.

    2012-01-01

    We describe how global models can be used to analyze past and future trends in nutrient export from watersheds and how such models can be used to analyze causes and effects of coastal eutrophication. Future nutrient inputs to coastal waters may be higher than today, and nutrient ratios may depart fr

  19. New global ICT-based business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    House Case The Nano Solar Case The Master Cat Case The Pitfalls Of The Blue Ocean Strategy - Implications Of "The Six Paths Framework" Network-Based Innovation - Combining Exploration and Exploitation? Innovating New Business Models in Inter-firm Collaboration NEW Global Business Models - What Did...

  20. Global Stability of SEIRS Model in Epidemiology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    柏灵; 王克

    2002-01-01

    In this article,an infectious model with saturation effect is considered,By using compound matrix theory and a series of theorems associated to qualitative theory of differential equations which are introduced by Muldowney and Micheal Li,we study globally stable problem of the model.

  1. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  2. Global health educational engagement - a tale of two models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rassiwala, Jasmine; Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Kupershtok, Mania; Castillo, Frank M; Evert, Jessica

    2013-11-01

    Global health learning experiences for medical students sit at the intersection of capacity building, ethics, and education. As interest in global health programs during medical school continues to rise, Northwestern University Alliance for International Development, a student-led and -run organization at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, has provided students with the opportunity to engage in two contrasting models of global health educational engagement.Eleven students, accompanied by two Northwestern physicians, participated in a one-week trip to Matagalpa, Nicaragua, in December 2010. This model allowed learning within a familiar Western framework, facilitated high-volume care, and focused on hands-on experiences. This approach aimed to provide basic medical services to the local population.In July 2011, 10 other Feinberg students participated in a four-week program in Puerto Escondido, Mexico, which was coordinated by Child Family Health International, a nonprofit organization that partners with native health care providers. A longer duration, homestays, and daily language classes hallmarked this experience. An intermediary, third-party organization served to bridge the cultural and ethical gap between visiting medical students and the local population. This program focused on providing a holistic cultural experience for rotating students.Establishing comprehensive global health curricula requires finding a balance between providing medical students with a fulfilling educational experience and honoring the integrity of populations that are medically underserved. This article provides a rich comparison between two global health educational models and aims to inform future efforts to standardize global health education curricula.

  3. Modelling Local and Global Behaviour: Petri Nets and Event Coordination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kindler, Ekkart

    2012-01-01

    to address this problem, we developed the notation of coordination diagrams, which allows us to define the global behaviour of a software system on top of existing class diagrams. One of the major objectives of coordination diagrams was to make it easy to integrate them and the code generated from them...... call it the Event Coordination Notation (ECNO). ECNO’s coordination diagrams define the global behaviour of a system only: they define how the local behaviour is coordinated and jointly executed in so-called interactions. In principle, ECNO is independent from a specific notation for modelling...

  4. A New Global Core Plasma Model of the Plasmasphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, D. L.; Comfort, R. H.; Craven, P. D.

    2014-01-01

    The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a continuous in value and gradient representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, makes possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities in temperatures in the plasmasphere for 5 ion species. These and other works enable a new more detailed empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented.

  5. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  6. Model of global evaluation for energetic resources; Modelo de avaliacao global de recursos energeticos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujii, Ricardo Junqueira; Udaeta, Miguel Edgar Morales; Galvao, Luiz Claudio Ribeiro [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Energia e Automacao Eletricas. Grupo de Energia]. E-mail: ricardo_fujii@pea.usp.br; daeta@pea.usp.br; lcgalvao@pea.usp.br

    2006-07-01

    The traditional energy planning usually takes into account the technical economical costs, considered alongside environmental and a few political restraints; however, there is a lack of methods to evenly assess environmental, economical, social and political costs. This work tries to change such scenario by elaborating a model to characterize an energy resource in all four dimensions - environmental, political, social and economical - in an integrated view. The model aims at two objectives: provide a method to assess the global cost of the energy resource and estimate its potential considering the limitations provided by these dimensions. To minimize the complexity of the integration process, the model strongly recommends the use of the Full Cost Accounting - FCA - method to assess the costs and benefits from any given resource. The FCA allows considering quantitative and qualitative costs, reducing the need of quantitative data, which are limited in some cases. The model has been applied in the characterization of the region of Aracatuba, located in the west part of the state of Sao Paulo - Brazil. The results showed that the potential of renewable sources are promising, especially when the global costs are considered. Some resources, in spite of being economically attractive, don't provide an acceptable global cost. It became clear that the model is a valuable tool when the conventional tools fail to address many issues, especially the need of an integrated view on the planning process; the results from this model can be applied in a portfolio selection method to evaluate the best options for a power system expansion. It has to be noticed that the usefulness of this model can be increased when adopted with a method to analyze demand side management measures, thus offering a complete set of possible choices of energy options for the decision maker. (author)

  7. Exiting prostitution: an integrated model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Lynda M; Dalla, Rochelle L; Williamson, Celia

    2010-05-01

    Exiting street-level prostitution is a complex, convoluted process. Few studies have described this process within any formal conceptual framework. This article reviews two general models and two prostitution-specific models and their applicability to the exiting process. Barriers encountered as women attempt to leave the streets are identified. Based on the four models, the barriers, the prostitution literature, and the authors' experience with prostituted women, a new integrated six-stage model that is comprehensive in scope and sensitive to women's attempts to exit prostitution is offered as a foundation for continued research on the process of women leaving the streets.

  8. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    International Steam Coal Trade. In this paper, we analyse steam coal market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. The assumed oligopoly scenario cannot explain market equilibria for any year. While we find that the competitive model simulates market equilibria well in 2006, the competitive model is not able to reproduce real market outcomes in 2008. The analysis shows that not all available supply capacity was utilised in 2008. We conclude that either unknown capacity bottlenecks or more sophisticated non-competitive strategies were the cause for the high prices in 2008. Chapter 4 builds upon the findings of the analysis in chapter 3 and adds a more detailed representation of domestic markets. The corresponding essay is titled Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade. In this chapter we explore the hypothesis that export policies and trade patterns of national players in the steam coal market are consistent with non-competitive market behaviour. We test this hypothesis by developing a static equilibrium model which is able to model coal producing nations as strategic players. We explicitly account for integrated seaborne trade and domestic markets. The global steam coal market is simulated under several imperfect market structure setups. We find that trade and prices of a China - Indonesia duopoly fits the real market outcome best and that real Chinese export quotas in 2008 were consistent with simulated exports under a Cournot-Nash strategy. Chapter 5 looks at the long-term effect of Chinese energy system planning decisions. The time horizon is 2006 to 2030. The analysis in this chapter combines a dynamic equilibrium model with the scenario analysis technique. The corresponding essay is titled Coal Lumps vs. Electrons: How Do Chinese Bulk Energy Transport Decisions Affect the Global

  9. Virtual Heterogeneous Model Integration Layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ali Memon

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The classic way of building a software today sim-plistically consists in connecting a piece of code calling a method with the piece of code implementing that method. We consider these piece of code (software systems not calling anything, behaving in a non deterministic way and providing complex sets of services in different domains. In software engineering reusability is the holly grail, and specially the reusability of code from autonomus tools requires powerful compostion/integration mechanisms. These systems are developed by different developers and being modified inceremently. Integrating these autonomous tools generate various conflicts. To deal with these conflicts, current integration mechanisms defines specific set of rules to resolve these conflicts and accompalish integration. Indeed still there is a big chance that changes made by other developers, or they update their changes in order to make them compliant with other developers cancel the updates done by others. The approach presented here claims three contributions in the field of Hetrogeneous Software Integration. First, this approach eliminate the need of conflicts resolving mechanism. Secondly, it provides the mechanism to work in the presence of conflicts without resolving them. Finally, contribution is that the integration mechanism does not affect if either of the system evolves. We do this by introducing an intermediate virtual layer between two systems that introduce a delta models which consist of three parts; viability that share required elements, hiding that hide conflicting elements and aliasing that aliases same concepts in both systems.

  10. An integrated network model of psychotic symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looijestijn, Jasper; Blom, Jan Dirk; Aleman, André; Hoek, Hans W; Goekoop, Rutger

    2015-12-01

    The full body of research on the nature of psychosis and its determinants indicates that a considerable number of factors are relevant to the development of hallucinations, delusions, and other positive symptoms, ranging from neurodevelopmental parameters and altered connectivity of brain regions to impaired cognitive functioning and social factors. We aimed to integrate these factors in a single mathematical model based on network theory. At the microscopic level this model explains positive symptoms of psychosis in terms of experiential equivalents of robust, high-frequency attractor states of neural networks. At the mesoscopic level it explains them in relation to global brain states, and at the macroscopic level in relation to social-network structures and dynamics. Due to the scale-free nature of biological networks, all three levels are governed by the same general laws, thereby allowing for an integrated model of biological, psychological, and social phenomena involved in the mediation of positive symptoms of psychosis. This integrated network model of psychotic symptoms (INMOPS) is described together with various possibilities for application in clinical practice.

  11. Integrated modeling: a look back

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Clark

    2015-09-01

    This paper discusses applications and implementation approaches used for integrated modeling of structural systems with optics over the past 30 years. While much of the development work focused on control system design, significant contributions were made in system modeling and computer-aided design (CAD) environments. Early work appended handmade line-of-sight models to traditional finite element models, such as the optical spacecraft concept from the ACOSS program. The IDEAS2 computational environment built in support of Space Station collected a wider variety of existing tools around a parametric database. Later, IMOS supported interferometer and large telescope mission studies at JPL with MATLAB modeling of structural dynamics, thermal analysis, and geometric optics. IMOS's predecessor was a simple FORTRAN command line interpreter for LQG controller design with additional functions that built state-space finite element models. Specialized language systems such as CAESY were formulated and prototyped to provide more complex object-oriented functions suited to control-structure interaction. A more recent example of optical modeling directly in mechanical CAD is used to illustrate possible future directions. While the value of directly posing the optical metric in system dynamics terms is well understood today, the potential payoff is illustrated briefly via project-based examples. It is quite likely that integrated structure thermal optical performance (STOP) modeling could be accomplished in a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) tool set. The work flow could be adopted, for example, by a team developing a small high-performance optical or radio frequency (RF) instrument.

  12. Frequently asked questions about global modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letellier, Christophe; Aguirre, Luis A.; Freitas, U. S.

    2009-06-01

    When a global model is attempted from experimental data, some preprocessing might be required. Therefore it is only natural to wonder what kind of effects the preprocessing might have on the modeling procedure. This concern is manifested in the form of recurrent frequently asked questions, such as "how does the preprocessing affect the underlying dynamics?" This paper aims at providing answers to important questions related to (i) data interpolation, (ii) data smoothing, (iii) data-estimated derivatives, (iv) model structure selection, and (v) model validation. The answers provided will hopefully remove some of those doubts and one shall be more confident not only on global modeling but also on various data analyses which may be also dependent on data preprocessing.

  13. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...... to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and recipitation between the two models are included...

  14. INTEGRATED PRODUCT AND ENTERPRISE DESIGN FOR GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.D. Du Preez

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presentsan overview of the challenge to integrate product and process life cycles in maintaining global competitiveness of an enterprise and proposes IEKOS as a possible solution . It provides the reader with a framework of two virtual life cycles which create a problem solving matrix for the industrial engineer. In this matrix, bordered by the virtual enterprise life cycle and the virtual product life cycles, the business functions of analyze, design deploy and operate are predominantly functions executed by the, industrial engineer. The different phases of each life cycle serves as a framework to a virtual industrial engineering toolkit providing access to detailed functions, formats, examples and a series of software and other "tools" available to the industrial engineer.
    In conclusion a brief overview is provided of the progress of the IEKOS toolkit which is under development at the department of Industrial Engineering at Stellenbosch University.

  15. Integrating Globality and Locality for Robust Representation Based Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The representation based classification method (RBCM has shown huge potential for face recognition since it first emerged. Linear regression classification (LRC method and collaborative representation classification (CRC method are two well-known RBCMs. LRC and CRC exploit training samples of each class and all the training samples to represent the testing sample, respectively, and subsequently conduct classification on the basis of the representation residual. LRC method can be viewed as a “locality representation” method because it just uses the training samples of each class to represent the testing sample and it cannot embody the effectiveness of the “globality representation.” On the contrary, it seems that CRC method cannot own the benefit of locality of the general RBCM. Thus we propose to integrate CRC and LRC to perform more robust representation based classification. The experimental results on benchmark face databases substantially demonstrate that the proposed method achieves high classification accuracy.

  16. Professionalism in global, personalized cancer care: restoring authenticity and integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surbone, Antonella

    2013-01-01

    Personalized medicine is revolutionizing cancer care and creating new expectations among oncologists and patients. At present the benefit is still marginal, however, and must be understood as incremental. In addition, cultural and resource disparities limit the sustainability of new cancer therapies on a global scale. Adequate instruments are needed to enable our exercise of sound and honest judgment in distinguishing breakthrough treatments from those that yield only marginal or doubtful improvements, and to develop strategies for formulation and correct application of balanced guidelines for sustainable cancer care. Professionalism requires that the acquisition of knowledge and skills go hand in hand with moral education in the intellectual virtues of humility, perseverance, adaptability, communicativeness, and commitment to resist self-deception or conflicts of interest. Hidden curricula undermine the moral values of medicine: these must be understood and uncovered. We should possess a special body of knowledge, skills, and values that allow us to change our practices when appropriate and to be stewards of society's limited resources through proper communication with our patients and families. In the era of personalized oncology and global issues of sustainability, professional authenticity and integrity in cancer clinical practice are key to bridging the gaps between true and false expectations of patients and the public.

  17. Global MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C. C.

    1983-01-01

    A global MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere is defined. An introduction to numerical methods for solving the MHD equations is given with emphasis on the shock-capturing technique. Finally, results concerning the shape of the magnetosphere and the plasma flows inside the magnetosphere are presented.

  18. A global energy model with fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lechon, Yolanda [CIEMAT, Avda Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: yolanda.lechon@ciemat.es; Cabal, H. [CIEMAT, Avda Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Varela, M. [CIEMAT, Avda Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Saez, R. [CIEMAT, Avda Complutense 22, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Eherer, C. [TUG/ITP, Petersgasse 16, 8010 Graz (Austria); Baumann, M. [TUG/ITP, Petersgasse 16, 8010 Graz (Austria); Dueweke, J. [IPP, Boltzmannstr. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Hamacher, T. [IPP, Boltzmannstr. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Tosato, G.C. [EFDA Close Support Unit, Boltzmannstr. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2005-11-15

    Some analysts expect a complete shift of the global energy system in the 21st century, away from fossil fuels to either renewable sources or new nuclear technologies [L. Schrattenholzer, A roadmap to a sustainable global energy system, in: Proceedings of the International Energy Workshop, Paris, June, 2004]. Fusion might become a corner stone of the future energy system. The construction and successful operation of ITER is a necessary condition to reach this goal. Within the Socio Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) programme guided by EFDA, a consortium between CIEMAT, TU Graz (TUG), ENEA and IPP open to other European energy and fusion research laboratories has been formed to analyse the possible role of fusion in the future energy system. Using TIMES, a single region global model has been constructed including fusion as an energy option. Background of the model is a detailed bottom-up description of the complete energy system starting from mining process up to the various demand sectors. The model dynamics is determined by an optimisation process, in which total surplus is maximized. The paper will present the first attempts to set-up a single region global model and the first results.

  19. GLOBAL ATTRACTIVITY AND GLOBAL EXPONENTIAL STABILITY FOR DELAYED HOPFIELD NEURAL NETWORK MODELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒲志林; 徐道义

    2001-01-01

    Some global properties such as global attractivity and global exponential stability for delayed Hopfield neural networks model, under the weaker assumptions on nonlinear activation functions, are concerned. By constructing suitable Liapunov function, some simpler criteria for global attractivity and global exponential stability for Hopfield continuous neural networks with time delays are presented.

  20. Soliton interactions of integrable models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruan Hangyu E-mail: hyruan@mail.nbip.net; Chen Yixin

    2003-08-01

    The solution of integrable (n+1)-dimensional KdV system in bilinear form yields a dromion solution that is localized in all directions. The interactions between two dromions are studied both in analytical and in numerical for three (n+1)-dimensional KdV-type equations (n=1, 2, 3). The same interactive properties between two dromions (solitons) are revealed for these models. The interactions between two dromions (solitons) may be elastic or inelastic for different form of solutions.

  1. Soliton interactions of integrable models

    CERN Document Server

    Ruan Hang Yu

    2003-01-01

    The solution of integrable (n+1)-dimensional KdV system in bilinear form yields a dromion solution that is localized in all directions. The interactions between two dromions are studied both in analytical and in numerical for three (n+1)-dimensional KdV-type equations (n=1, 2, 3). The same interactive properties between two dromions (solitons) are revealed for these models. The interactions between two dromions (solitons) may be elastic or inelastic for different form of solutions.

  2. The Glory Program: Global Science from a Unique Spacecraft Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajpayee Jaya; Durham, Darcie; Ichkawich, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    The Glory program is an Earth and Solar science mission designed to broaden science community knowledge of the environment. The causes and effects of global warming have become a concern in recent years and Glory aims to contribute to the knowledge base of the science community. Glory is designed for two functions: one is solar viewing to monitor the total solar irradiance and the other is observing the Earth s atmosphere for aerosol composition. The former is done with an active cavity radiometer, while the latter is accomplished with an aerosol polarimeter sensor to discern atmospheric particles. The Glory program is managed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) with Orbital Sciences in Dulles, VA as the prime contractor for the spacecraft bus, mission operations, and ground system. This paper will describe some of the more unique features of the Glory program including the integration and testing of the satellite and instruments as well as the science data processing. The spacecraft integration and test approach requires extensive analysis and additional planning to ensure existing components are successfully functioning with the new Glory components. The science mission data analysis requires development of mission unique processing systems and algorithms. Science data analysis and distribution will utilize our national assets at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP). The Satellite was originally designed and built for the Vegetation Canopy Lidar (VCL) mission, which was terminated in the middle of integration and testing due to payload development issues. The bus was then placed in secure storage in 2001 and removed from an environmentally controlled container in late 2003 to be refurbished to meet the Glory program requirements. Functional testing of all the components was done as a system at the start of the program, very different from a traditional program

  3. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  4. THE INTEGRATION OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE AS A GLOBAL PROBLEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoliy I. Rakitov

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: mankind is on the edge of a new techno-technological and socio-economical revolution generated by robotization and automation in all spheres of individual and socio-economical activity. Among numerous conceptions of global development only the conception of the knowledge-based society is the most adequate to contemporary terms. As the higher education and science are the main source of knowledge adequate to contemporary terms then their integration should be investigated. Materials and Methods: the material for this investigation was gathered as from individual experience in science and pedagogical activity of the author which were earlier published in hundreds of articles and fifteen monograph translated in eleven languages, as the materials of Moscow city seminar, the results of which were published in annual “Science of science investigations”. This annual has been editing since 2004 and the author is the editor-in-chief of this edition. Also has been used other sources from different editions. The method of comparative analysis was used. Results: the author put forward the conception of inevitable integration of higher school and research institutions and forming a new structure – science-education consortium. Only such united structure can significantly rise both scientific researchers and higher education. And as a result, it will rise publishing activity and application of scientific researchers in real econ omy, social sphere, technological leadership. Discussion and Conclusions: conception put forward in this article fragmentary has been published by author earlier and initiated discussion in scientific press, which was reflected in home RISC and abroad citation indexes. The author proclaims the inevitability of realization of the suggested by him conception of the utmost integration of science and higher education.

  5. Globally nilpotent differential operators and the square Ising model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bostan, A [INRIA Rocquencourt, Domaine de Voluceau, BP 105 78153 Le Chesnay Cedex (France); Boukraa, S [LPTHIRM and Departement d' Aeronautique, Universite de Blida (Algeria); Hassani, S; Zenine, N [Centre de Recherche Nucleaire d' Alger, 2 Bd. Frantz Fanon, BP 399, 16000 Alger (Algeria); Maillard, J-M [LPTMC, CNRS, Universite de Paris, Tour 24, 4eme etage, Case 121, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Weil, J-A [LACO, XLIM, Universite de Limoges, 123 Avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France)], E-mail: alin.bostan@inria.fr, E-mail: boukraa@mail.univ-blida.dz, E-mail: maillard@lptmc.jussieu.fr, E-mail: jacques-arthur.weil@unilim.fr, E-mail: njzenine@yahoo.com

    2009-03-27

    We recall various multiple integrals with one parameter, related to the isotropic square Ising model, and corresponding, respectively, to the n-particle contributions of the magnetic susceptibility, to the (lattice) form factors, to the two-point correlation functions and to their {lambda}-extensions. The univariate analytic functions defined by these integrals are holonomic and even G-functions: they satisfy Fuchsian linear differential equations with polynomial coefficients and have some arithmetic properties. We recall the explicit forms, found in previous work, of these Fuchsian equations, as well as their Russian-doll and direct sum structures. These differential operators are selected Fuchsian linear differential operators, and their remarkable properties have a deep geometrical origin: they are all globally nilpotent, or, sometimes, even have zero p-curvature. We also display miscellaneous examples of globally nilpotent operators emerging from enumerative combinatorics problems for which no integral representation is yet known. Focusing on the factorized parts of all these operators, we find out that the global nilpotence of the factors (resp. p-curvature nullity) corresponds to a set of selected structures of algebraic geometry: elliptic curves, modular curves, curves of genus five, six,..., and even a remarkable weight-1 modular form emerging in the three-particle contribution {chi}{sup (3)} of the magnetic susceptibility of the square Ising model. Noticeably, this associated weight-1 modular form is also seen in the factors of the differential operator for another n-fold integral of the Ising class, {phi}{sup (3)}{sub H}, for the staircase polygons counting, and in Apery's study of {zeta}(3). G-functions naturally occur as solutions of globally nilpotent operators. In the case where we do not have G-functions, but Hamburger functions (one irregular singularity at 0 or {infinity}) that correspond to the confluence of singularities in the scaling limit

  6. The integrated environmental control model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.; Berkenpas, M.B.; Kalagnanam, J.R. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    The capability to estimate the performance and cost of emission control systems is critical to a variety of planning and analysis requirements faced by utilities, regulators, researchers and analysts in the public and private sectors. The computer model described in this paper has been developed for DOe to provide an up-to-date capability for analyzing a variety of pre-combustion, combustion, and post-combustion options in an integrated framework. A unique capability allows performance and costs to be modeled probabilistically, which allows explicit characterization of uncertainties and risks.

  7. 75 FR 20388 - International Business Machines Corporation, Global Technology Services Business Unit, Integrated...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-19

    ... Employment and Training Administration International Business Machines Corporation, Global Technology Services Business Unit, Integrated Technology Services, Cost and Expense Team, Working From Various States..., applicable to workers of International Business Machines Corporation, Global Technology Services...

  8. Global Atmospheric Models for Cosmic Ray Detectors

    CERN Document Server

    Will, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The knowledge of atmospheric parameters -- such as temperature, pressure, and humidity -- is very important for a proper reconstruction of air showers, especially with the fluorescence technique. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) provides altitude-dependent profiles of these state variables of the atmosphere and several more. Every three hours, a new data set on 23 constant pressure level plus an additional surface values is available for the entire globe. These GDAS data are now used in the standard air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The validity of the data was verified by comparisons with monthly models that were averaged from on-site meteorological radio soundings and weather station measurements obtained at the Observatory in Malarg\\"ue. Comparisons of reconstructions using the GDAS data and the monthly models are also presented. Since GDAS is a global model, the data can potentially be used for other cosmic and gamma ray detectors. Several studies were already performed ...

  9. Forest biomass allometry in global land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Adam; Ciais, Philippe; Bellassen, Valentin; Delbart, Nicolas; Field, Christopher B.; Berry, Joseph A.

    2011-09-01

    A number of global land surface models simulate photosynthesis, respiration, and disturbance, important flows in the carbon cycle that are widely tested against flux towers and CO2 concentration gradients. The resulting forest biomass is examined in this paper for its resemblance to realistic stands, which are characterized using allometric theory. The simulated biomass pools largely do not conform to widely observed allometry, particularly for young stands. The best performing models had an explicit treatment of stand-thinning processes, which brought the slope of the allometry of these models closer to observations. Additionally, models that had relatively shorter wood turnover times performed were generally closer to observed allometries. The discrepancy between the pool distribution between models and data suggests estimates of NEE have biases when integrated over the long term, as compared to observed biomass data, and could therefore compromise long-term predictions of land carbon sources and sinks. We think that this presents a practical obstacle for improving models by informing them better with data. The approach taken in this paper, examining biomass pools allometrically, offers a simple approach to improving the characteristic behaviors of global models with the relatively sparse data that is available globally by forest inventory.

  10. The Coronal Global Evolutionary Model (CGEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, George H.; DeRosa, M. L.; Hoeksema, J. T.

    2013-07-01

    The Coronal Global Evolutionary Model, or CGEM, is a collaborative effort from the UC Berkeley Space Sciences Laboratory (SSL), Stanford University, and Lockheed-Martin. In work that led up to the selection of this project, the team demonstrated its capability to use sequences of vector magnetograms and Dopplergrams from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument aboard the SDO to drive a magnetofrictional (MF) model of the coronal magnetic field in AR 11158, which produced an X2.2 flare. We will implement this MF model in spherical coordinates to enable real-time, long-term modeling of the non-potential coronal magnetic field, both globally and for individual active region (ARs). The model's Earth-facing hemisphere will be driven using electric fields derived from the observed evolution of photospheric line-of-sight magnetic fields and electric currents. Far-side data inputs will be from an existing flux transport code, combined with HMI far-side observations of new active regions, with empirical parametrizations of orientation and flux. Because this model includes large-scale coronal electric currents, it is a substantial improvement over existing real-time global coronal models, which assume potential fields. Data products available from the model will include: 1) the evolving photospheric electric field, Poynting flux, and helicity flux; 2) estimates of coronal free energy and non-potential geometry and topology; 3) initial and time-dependent boundary conditions for MHD modeling of active regions; and 4) time-dependent boundary conditions and flux tube expansion factors for MHD and empirical solar wind models. Unstable configurations found from MF models will be dynamically evolved with local and global MHD codes. Modules used to derive surface electric fields from magnetic evolution will be incorporated into the SDO/HMI data pipeline, and data products will be distributed through the Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC) and directly to space

  11. Cotangent Models for Integrable Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiesenhofer, Anna; Miranda, Eva

    2017-03-01

    We associate cotangent models to a neighbourhood of a Liouville torus in symplectic and Poisson manifolds focusing on b-Poisson/ b-symplectic manifolds. The semilocal equivalence with such models uses the corresponding action-angle theorems in these settings: the theorem of Liouville-Mineur-Arnold for symplectic manifolds and an action-angle theorem for regular Liouville tori in Poisson manifolds (Laurent- Gengoux et al., IntMath Res Notices IMRN 8: 1839-1869, 2011). Our models comprise regular Liouville tori of Poisson manifolds but also consider the Liouville tori on the singular locus of a b-Poisson manifold. For this latter class of Poisson structures we define a twisted cotangent model. The equivalence with this twisted cotangent model is given by an action-angle theorem recently proved by the authors and Scott (Math. Pures Appl. (9) 105(1):66-85, 2016). This viewpoint of cotangent models provides a new machinery to construct examples of integrable systems, which are especially valuable in the b-symplectic case where not many sources of examples are known. At the end of the paper we introduce non-degenerate singularities as lifted cotangent models on b-symplectic manifolds and discuss some generalizations of these models to general Poisson manifolds.

  12. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  13. Global biogeochemical modeling of contemporary fire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.; Depaz, J. M.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Morton, D. C.; Kasibhatla, P.; Defries, R. S.; Jin, Y.; Mu, M.; Collatz, G. J.

    2008-12-01

    Improved estimates of contemporary fire emissions are needed to better understand the effects of a changing fire regime on climate and air quality. At a global scale, uncertainties in fire emissions arise from several sources, including estimates of burned area, aboveground biomass, combustion completeness, and emission factors. The development of long-term time series requires addressing additional sources of uncertainty related to the integration of different satellite fire products, the representation of organic soils and peatlands, and the use of fire in the deforestation process. Here we describe improvements to a global fire emissions time series (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3) that reduce uncertainties associated with many of the factors described above. We then characterized long-term trends in fire emissions for different continental-scale regions during 1996-2007. Using South America as an example, we show how climate and human activity contribute to interannual variability in emissions and how the spatial pattern of emissions has changed over time. In a final step we use atmospheric observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) and Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to refine and validate our bottom-up emissions estimates for South America.

  14. Selection between foreground models for global 21-cm experiments

    CERN Document Server

    Harker, Geraint

    2015-01-01

    The precise form of the foregrounds for sky-averaged measurements of the 21-cm line during and before the epoch of reionization is unknown. We suggest that the level of complexity in the foreground models used to fit global 21-cm data should be driven by the data, under a Bayesian model selection methodology. A first test of this approach is carried out by applying nested sampling to simplified models of global 21-cm data to compute the Bayesian evidence for the models. If the foregrounds are assumed to be polynomials of order n in log-log space, we can infer the necessity to use n=4 rather than n=3 with <2h of integration with limited frequency coverage, for reasonable values of the n=4 coefficient. Using a higher-order polynomial does not necessarily prevent a significant detection of the 21-cm signal. Even for n=8, we can obtain very strong evidence distinguishing a reasonable model for the signal from a null model with 128h of integration. More subtle features of the signal may, however, be lost if the...

  15. DIRECT INTEGRATION METHODS WITH INTEGRAL MODEL FOR DYNAMIC SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕和祥; 于洪洁; 裘春航

    2001-01-01

    A new approach which is a direct integration method with integral model ( DIM IM) to solve dynamic governing equations is presented. The governing equations are integrated into the integral equations. An algorithm with explicit and predict-correct and selfstarting and fourth-order accuracy to integrate the integral equations is given.Theoretical analysis and numerical examples show that DIM-IM discribed in this paper suitable for strong nonlinear and non-conservative system have higher accuracy than central difference, Houbolt , Newmark and Wilson- Theta methods.

  16. Global dynamical model of the cardiovascular system

    CERN Document Server

    Kholodov, A S; Kholodov, Y A; Nadolsky, A A; Shushlebin, A N

    2007-01-01

    Blood system functions are very diverse and important for most processes in human organism. One of its primary functions is matter transport among different parts of the organism including tissue supplying with oxygen, carbon dioxide excretion, drug propagation etc. Forecasting of these processes under normal conditions and in the presence of different pathologies like atherosclerosis, loss of blood, anatomical abnormalities, pathological changing in chemical transformations and others is significant issue for many physiologists. In this connection should be pointed out that global processes are of special interest as they include feedbacks and interdependences among different regions of the organism. Thus the main goal of this work is to develop the model allowing to describe effectively blood flow in the whole organism. As we interested in global processes the models of the four vascular trees (arterial and venous parts of systemic and pulmonary circulation) must be closed with heart and peripheral circulat...

  17. Integrated modelling in materials and process technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2008-01-01

    Integrated modelling of entire process sequences and the subsequent in-service conditions, and multiphysics modelling of the single process steps are areas that increasingly support optimisation of manufactured parts. In the present paper, three different examples of modelling manufacturing...... processes from the viewpoint of combined materials and process modelling are presented: solidification of thin walled ductile cast iron, integrated modelling of spray forming and multiphysics modelling of friction stir welding. The fourth example describes integrated modelling applied to a failure analysis...

  18. Reconstruction of groundwater depletion using a global scale groundwater model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Rens; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Wada, Yoshi; Bierkens, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater forms an integral part of the global hydrological cycle and is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water to satisfy human water needs. It buffers variable recharge rates over time, thereby effectively sustaining river flows in times of drought as well as evaporation in areas with shallow water tables. Moreover, although lateral groundwater flows are often slow, they cross topographic and administrative boundaries at appreciable rates. Despite the importance of groundwater, most global scale hydrological models do not consider surface water-groundwater interactions or include a lateral groundwater flow component. The main reason of this omission is the lack of consistent global-scale hydrogeological information needed to arrive at a more realistic representation of the groundwater system, i.e. including information on aquifer depths and the presence of confining layers. The latter holds vital information on the accessibility and quality of the global groundwater resource. In this study we developed a high resolution (5 arc-minutes) global scale transient groundwater model comprising confined and unconfined aquifers. This model is based on MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and coupled with the land-surface model PCR GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011) via recharge and surface water levels. Aquifers properties were based on newly derived estimates of aquifer depths (de Graaf et al., 2014b) and thickness of confining layers from an integration of lithological and topographical information. They were further parameterized using available global datasets on lithology (Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2011) and permeability (Gleeson et al., 2014). In a sensitivity analysis the model was run with various hydrogeological parameter settings, under natural recharge only. Scenarios of past groundwater abstractions and corresponding recharge (Wada et al., 2012, de Graaf et al. 2014a) were evaluated. The resulting estimates of groundwater depletion are lower than

  19. Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Heinke, J.; Lucht, W.; Rockström, J.

    2016-02-01

    As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent integrated crop water management might contribute to closing the global food gap, constrained by the assumption that pressure on water resources and land does not increase. Using a process-based bio-/agrosphere model, we simulate the yield-increasing potential of elevated irrigation water productivity (including irrigation expansion with thus saved water) and optimized use of in situ precipitation water (alleviated soil evaporation, enhanced infiltration, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation) under current and projected future climate (from 20 climate models, with and without beneficial CO2 effects). Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements can save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an ‘ambitious’ scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighboring rainfed systems, can boost kcal production significantly (26% global increase). Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, the ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies explored in this study could increase global production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Unabated climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but improvements in water management as analyzed here can buffer such effects to a significant degree.

  20. Integrity modelling of tropospheric delay models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rózsa, Szabolcs; Bastiaan Ober, Pieter; Mile, Máté; Ambrus, Bence; Juni, Ildikó

    2017-04-01

    The effect of the neutral atmosphere on signal propagation is routinely estimated by various tropospheric delay models in satellite navigation. Although numerous studies can be found in the literature investigating the accuracy of these models, for safety-of-life applications it is crucial to study and model the worst case performance of these models using very low recurrence frequencies. The main objective of the INTegrity of TROpospheric models (INTRO) project funded by the ESA PECS programme is to establish a model (or models) of the residual error of existing tropospheric delay models for safety-of-life applications. Such models are required to overbound rare tropospheric delays and should thus include the tails of the error distributions. Their use should lead to safe error bounds on the user position and should allow computation of protection levels for the horizontal and vertical position errors. The current tropospheric model from the RTCA SBAS Minimal Operational Standards has an associated residual error that equals 0.12 meters in the vertical direction. This value is derived by simply extrapolating the observed distribution of the residuals into the tail (where no data is present) and then taking the point where the cumulative distribution has an exceedance level would be 10-7.While the resulting standard deviation is much higher than the estimated standard variance that best fits the data (0.05 meters), it surely is conservative for most applications. In the context of the INTRO project some widely used and newly developed tropospheric delay models (e.g. RTCA MOPS, ESA GALTROPO and GPT2W) were tested using 16 years of daily ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis numerical weather model data and the raytracing technique. The results showed that the performance of some of the widely applied models have a clear seasonal dependency and it is also affected by a geographical position. In order to provide a more realistic, but still conservative estimation of the residual

  1. Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Kimberly M.

    Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

  2. Integrated Resource Planning Model (IRPM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, T. B.

    2010-04-01

    The Integrated Resource Planning Model (IRPM) is a decision-support software product for resource-and-capacity planning. Users can evaluate changing constraints on schedule performance, projected cost, and resource use. IRPM is a unique software tool that can analyze complex business situations from a basic supply chain to an integrated production facility to a distributed manufacturing complex. IRPM can be efficiently configured through a user-friendly graphical interface to rapidly provide charts, graphs, tables, and/or written results to summarize postulated business scenarios. There is not a similar integrated resource planning software package presently available. Many different businesses (from government to large corporations as well as medium-to-small manufacturing concerns) could save thousands of dollars and hundreds of labor hours in resource and schedule planning costs. Those businesses also could avoid millions of dollars of revenue lost from fear of overcommitting or from penalties and lost future business for failing to meet promised delivery by using IRPM to perform what-if business-case evaluations. Tough production planning questions that previously were left unanswered can now be answered with a high degree of certainty. Businesses can anticipate production problems and have solutions in hand to deal with those problems. IRPM allows companies to make better plans, decisions, and investments.

  3. Circadian Rhythms: The Effects of Global Market Integration in the Currency Trading Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Srilata Zaheer

    1995-01-01

    This essay assesses the impact of global market integration in the currency trading industry as the market interfaces with states, with firms and with individuals, and raises questions for research from a variety of disciplines. Issues discussed include the question of state control in global markets, the impact of globalization on firm structures and processes, how firms can derive competitive advantage from global circadian rhythms, and the influences of the circadian rhythms of the global ...

  4. Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

    2008-05-01

    Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the-art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3

  5. GLobal Integrated Design Environment (GLIDE): A Concurrent Engineering Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Melissa L.; Kunkel, Matthew R.; Smith, David A.

    2010-01-01

    The GLobal Integrated Design Environment (GLIDE) is a client-server software application purpose-built to mitigate issues associated with real time data sharing in concurrent engineering environments and to facilitate discipline-to-discipline interaction between multiple engineers and researchers. GLIDE is implemented in multiple programming languages utilizing standardized web protocols to enable secure parameter data sharing between engineers and researchers across the Internet in closed and/or widely distributed working environments. A well defined, HyperText Transfer Protocol (HTTP) based Application Programming Interface (API) to the GLIDE client/server environment enables users to interact with GLIDE, and each other, within common and familiar tools. One such common tool, Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corporation), paired with its add-in API for GLIDE, is discussed in this paper. The top-level examples given demonstrate how this interface improves the efficiency of the design process of a concurrent engineering study while reducing potential errors associated with manually sharing information between study participants.

  6. Improving Global Health Education: Development of a Global Health Competency Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablah, Elizabeth; Biberman, Dorothy A.; Weist, Elizabeth M.; Buekens, Pierre; Bentley, Margaret E.; Burke, Donald; Finnegan, John R.; Flahault, Antoine; Frenk, Julio; Gotsch, Audrey R.; Klag, Michael J.; Lopez, Mario Henry Rodriguez; Nasca, Philip; Shortell, Stephen; Spencer, Harrison C.

    2014-01-01

    Although global health is a recommended content area for the future of education in public health, no standardized global health competency model existed for master-level public health students. Without such a competency model, academic institutions are challenged to ensure that students are able to demonstrate the knowledge, skills, and attitudes (KSAs) needed for successful performance in today's global health workforce. The Association of Schools of Public Health (ASPH) sought to address this need by facilitating the development of a global health competency model through a multistage modified-Delphi process. Practitioners and academic global health experts provided leadership and guidance throughout the competency development process. The resulting product, the Global Health Competency Model 1.1, includes seven domains and 36 competencies. The Global Health Competency Model 1.1 provides a platform for engaging educators, students, and global health employers in discussion of the KSAs needed to improve human health on a global scale. PMID:24445206

  7. An architecture for integration of multidisciplinary models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belete, Getachew F.; Voinov, Alexey; Holst, Niels

    2014-01-01

    , integration of models requires us to address technical, semantic, and dataset aspects of interoperability. So we need a genuine techniques that enable us to integrate various domain specific models for interdisciplinary study. In this research work, we investigated best practices of System Integration......Integrating multidisciplinary models requires linking models: that may operate at different temporal and spatial scales; developed using different methodologies, tools and techniques; different levels of complexity; calibrated for different ranges of inputs and outputs, etc. On the other hand...

  8. Towards a Global Upper Mantle Attenuation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karaoglu, Haydar; Romanowicz, Barbara

    2015-04-01

    Global anelastic tomography is crucial for addressing the nature of heterogeneity in the Earth's interior. The intrinsic attenuation manifests itself through dispersion and amplitude decay. These are contaminated by elastic effects such as (de)focusing and scattering. Therefore, mapping anelasticity accurately requires separation of elastic effects from the anelastic ones. To achieve this, a possible approach is to try and first predict elastic effects through the computation of seismic waveforms in a high resolution 3D elastic model, which can now be achieved accurately using numerical wavefield computations. Building upon the recent construction of such a whole mantle elastic and radially anisotropic shear velocity model (SEMUCB_WM1, French and Romanowicz, 2014), which will be used as starting model, our goal is to develop a higher resolution 3D attenuation model of the upper mantle based on full waveform inversion. As in the development of SEMUCB_WM1, forward modeling will be performed using the spectral element method, while the inverse problem will be treated approximately, using normal mode asymptotics. Both fundamental and overtone time domain long period waveforms (T>60s) will be used from a dataset of over 200 events observed at several hundred stations globally. Here we present preliminary results of synthetic tests, exploring different iterative inversion strategies.

  9. Transport of nutrients from land to sea: Global modeling approaches and uncertainty analyses (Utrecht Studies in Earth Sciences 058)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beusen, A.H.W.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis presents four examples of global models developed as part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). They describe different components of global biogeochemical cycles of the nutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silicon (Si), with a focus on approaches to ana

  10. Integration of molecular pathology, epidemiology and social science for global precision medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishi, Akihiro; Milner, Danny A; Giovannucci, Edward L; Nishihara, Reiko; Tan, Andy S; Kawachi, Ichiro; Ogino, Shuji

    2016-01-01

    The precision medicine concept and the unique disease principle imply that each patient has unique pathogenic processes resulting from heterogeneous cellular genetic and epigenetic alterations and interactions between cells (including immune cells) and exposures, including dietary, environmental, microbial and lifestyle factors. As a core method field in population health science and medicine, epidemiology is a growing scientific discipline that can analyze disease risk factors and develop statistical methodologies to maximize utilization of big data on populations and disease pathology. The evolving transdisciplinary field of molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE) can advance biomedical and health research by linking exposures to molecular pathologic signatures, enhancing causal inference and identifying potential biomarkers for clinical impact. The MPE approach can be applied to any diseases, although it has been most commonly used in neoplastic diseases (including breast, lung and colorectal cancers) because of availability of various molecular diagnostic tests. However, use of state-of-the-art genomic, epigenomic and other omic technologies and expensive drugs in modern healthcare systems increases racial, ethnic and socioeconomic disparities. To address this, we propose to integrate molecular pathology, epidemiology and social science. Social epidemiology integrates the latter two fields. The integrative social MPE model can embrace sociology, economics and precision medicine, address global health disparities and inequalities, and elucidate biological effects of social environments, behaviors and networks. We foresee advancements of molecular medicine, including molecular diagnostics, biomedical imaging and targeted therapeutics, which should benefit individuals in a global population, by means of an interdisciplinary approach of integrative MPE and social health science.

  11. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  12. Shared mental models of integrated care: aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jenna M; Baker, G Ross

    2012-01-01

    Health service organizations and professionals are under increasing pressure to work together to deliver integrated patient care. A common understanding of integration strategies may facilitate the delivery of integrated care across inter-organizational and inter-professional boundaries. This paper aims to build a framework for exploring and potentially aligning multiple stakeholder perspectives of systems integration. The authors draw from the literature on shared mental models, strategic management and change, framing, stakeholder management, and systems theory to develop a new construct, Mental Models of Integrated Care (MMIC), which consists of three types of mental models, i.e. integration-task, system-role, and integration-belief. The MMIC construct encompasses many of the known barriers and enablers to integrating care while also providing a comprehensive, theory-based framework of psychological factors that may influence inter-organizational and inter-professional relations. While the existing literature on integration focuses on optimizing structures and processes, the MMIC construct emphasizes the convergence and divergence of stakeholders' knowledge and beliefs, and how these underlying cognitions influence interactions (or lack thereof) across the continuum of care. MMIC may help to: explain what differentiates effective from ineffective integration initiatives; determine system readiness to integrate; diagnose integration problems; and develop interventions for enhancing integrative processes and ultimately the delivery of integrated care. Global interest and ongoing challenges in integrating care underline the need for research on the mental models that characterize the behaviors of actors within health systems; the proposed framework offers a starting point for applying a cognitive perspective to health systems integration.

  13. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  14. How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Lowe, J.; Stehfest, E.; Gohar, L.; Hof, Andries; Hope, C.; Warren, R.; Meinshausen, M.; Plattner, G.K.

    2011-01-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spre

  15. Analytical models integrated with satellite images for optimized pest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    The global field protection (GFP) was developed to protect and optimize pest management resources integrating satellite images for precise field demarcation with physical models of controlled release devices of pesticides to protect large fields. The GFP was implemented using a graphical user interf...

  16. Evaluating the Contribution of Soil Carbon to Global Climate Change Mitigation in an Integrated Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Clarke, L. E.

    2006-12-01

    Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to national and international climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. In a study for the US Climate Change Technology Program, site based measurements and geographic data were used to develop a three- pool, first-order kinetic model of global agricultural soil carbon (C) stock changes over 14 continental scale regions. This model was then used together with land use scenarios from the MiniCAM integrated assessment model in a global analysis of climate change mitigation options. MiniCAM evaluated mitigation strategies within a set of policy environments aimed at achieving atmospheric CO2 stabilization by 2100 under a suite of technology and development scenarios. Adoption of terrestrial sequestration practices is based on competition for land and economic markets for carbon. In the reference case with no climate policy, conversion of agricultural land from conventional cultivation to no tillage over the next century in the United States results in C sequestration of 7.6 to 59.8 Tg C yr-1, which doubles to 19.0 to 143.4 Tg C yr-1 under the most aggressive climate policy. Globally, with no carbon policy, agricultural C sequestration rates range from 75.2 to 18.2 Tg C yr-1 over the century, with the highest rates occurring in the first fifty years. Under the most aggressive global climate change policy, sequestration in agricultural soils reaches up to 190 Tg C yr-1 in the first 15 years. The contribution of agricultural soil C sequestration is a small fraction of the total global carbon offsets necessary to reach the stabilization targets (9 to 20 Gt C yr-1) by the end of the century. This integrated assessment provides decision makers with science-based estimates of the potential magnitude of terrestrial C sequestration relative to other greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in all sectors of the global economy. It also provides insight into the

  17. Managing the tensions in integrating global organisations : The role of performance management systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Busco, Cristiano; Giovannoni, Elena; Scapens, Robert W.

    2008-01-01

    The paper explores the role of performance management systems (PMSs) in integrating global organisations (GOs). It investigates the ways in which the diverse entities that comprise a GO can be co-ordinated and integrated to achieve a global unity of effort, while leaving space for local adaptation,

  18. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  19. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozdağ, Ebru; Peter, Daniel; Lefebvre, Matthieu; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Tromp, Jeroen; Hill, Judith; Podhorszki, Norbert; Pugmire, David

    2016-12-01

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named `Titan', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used `crustal corrections'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ˜30 s body-wave data with ˜60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ˜17 s body waves with ˜45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the resolution

  20. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    KAUST Repository

    Bozdağ, Ebru

    2016-09-23

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named \\'Titan\\', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used \\'crustal corrections\\'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ M ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the

  1. Global Biogeochemistry Models and Global Carbon Cycle Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Covey, C; Caldeira, K; Guilderson, T; Cameron-Smith, P; Govindasamy, B; Swanston, C; Wickett, M; Mirin, A; Bader, D

    2005-05-27

    The climate modeling community has long envisioned an evolution from physical climate models to ''earth system'' models that include the effects of biology and chemistry, particularly those processes related to the global carbon cycle. The widely reproduced Box 3, Figure 1 from the 2001 IPCC Scientific Assessment schematically describes that evolution. The community generally accepts the premise that understanding and predicting global and regional climate change requires the inclusion of carbon cycle processes in models to fully simulate the feedbacks between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Moreover, models will ultimately be employed to predict atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases as a function of anthropogenic and natural processes, such as industrial emissions, terrestrial carbon fixation, sequestration, land use patterns, etc. Nevertheless, the development of coupled climate-carbon models with demonstrable quantitative skill will require a significant amount of effort and time to understand and validate their behavior at both the process level and as integrated systems. It is important to consider objectively whether the currently proposed strategies to develop and validate earth system models are optimal, or even sufficient, and whether alternative strategies should be pursued. Carbon-climate models are going to be complex, with the carbon cycle strongly interacting with many other components. Off-line process validation will be insufficient. As was found in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, feedbacks between model components can amplify small errors and uncertainties in one process to produce large biases in the simulated climate. The persistent tropical western Pacific Ocean ''double ITCZ'' and upper troposphere ''cold pole'' problems are examples. Finding and fixing similar types of problems in coupled carbon-climate models especially will be difficult, given

  2. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    OpenAIRE

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s...

  3. Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rondinini, Carlo; Di Marco, Moreno; Chiozza, Federica; Santulli, Giulia; Baisero, Daniele; Visconti, Piero; Hoffmann, Michael; Schipper, Jan; Stuart, Simon N.; Tognelli, Marcelo F.; Amori, Giovanni; Falcucci, Alessandra; Maiorano, Luigi; Boitani, Luigi

    2011-01-01

    Detailed large-scale information on mammal distribution has often been lacking, hindering conservation efforts. We used the information from the 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as a baseline for developing habitat suitability models for 5027 out of 5330 known terrestrial mammal species, based on their habitat relationships. We focused on the following environmental variables: land cover, elevation and hydrological features. Models were developed at 300 m resolution and limited to within species' known geographical ranges. A subset of the models was validated using points of known species occurrence. We conducted a global, fine-scale analysis of patterns of species richness. The richness of mammal species estimated by the overlap of their suitable habitat is on average one-third less than that estimated by the overlap of their geographical ranges. The highest absolute difference is found in tropical and subtropical regions in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia that are not covered by dense forest. The proportion of suitable habitat within mammal geographical ranges correlates with the IUCN Red List category to which they have been assigned, decreasing monotonically from Least Concern to Endangered. These results demonstrate the importance of fine-resolution distribution data for the development of global conservation strategies for mammals. PMID:21844042

  4. Adaptable Information Models in the Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, B.; Buddenberg, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Wolfe, R.; Goldstein, J.

    2014-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program has sponsored the creation of the Global Change Information System () to provide a web based source of accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. The GCIS played multiple roles during the assembly and release of the Third National Climate Assessment. It provided human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various types of resources, which could then be manipulated by a distributed team with a wide range of specialties. The GCIS also served as a scalable backend for the web based version of the report. In this talk, we discuss the infrastructure decisions made during the design and deployment of the GCIS, as well as ongoing work to adapt to new types of information. Both a constrained relational database and an open ended triple store are used to ensure data integrity while maintaining fluidity. Using natural primary keys allows identifiers to propagate through both models. Changing identifiers are accomodated through fine grained auditing and explicit mappings to external lexicons. A practical RESTful API is used whose endpoints are also URIs in an ontology. Both the relational schema and the ontology are maleable, and stability is ensured through test driven development and continuous integration testing using modern open source techniques. Content is also validated through continuous testing techniques. A high degres of scalability is achieved through caching.

  5. Towards an Integrated Global Land Cover Monitoring and Mapping System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Herold

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Global land cover mapping has evolved in a number of ways over the past two decades including increased activity in the areas of map validation and inter-comparison, which is the main focus of this Special Issue in Remote Sensing. Here we describe the major trends in global land cover mapping that have occurred, followed by recent advances as exemplified by the papers in the Special Issue. Finally, we consider what the future holds for global land cover mapping.

  6. Monetary and fiscal policy in the process of global integration

    OpenAIRE

    Madzova, Violeta; Sajnoski, Krste; Davcev, Ljupco

    2013-01-01

    The global environment in which monetary policy persisted brings more challenges as a result of changes that started with globalization in trade and financial fields. Concerning the trade, over the years that preceded the crisis in many advanced economies the task of monetary policy in maintaining low inflation was easier through global disinflationary pressures associated with cheaper imported products. Analyzing further, things will probably be different as structural upward trend in commod...

  7. Global Langevin model of multidimensional biomolecular dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaudinnus, Norbert; Lickert, Benjamin; Biswas, Mithun; Stock, Gerhard

    2016-11-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecular processes are often discussed in terms of diffusive motion on a low-dimensional free energy landscape F ( 𝒙 ) . To provide a theoretical basis for this interpretation, one may invoke the system-bath ansatz á la Zwanzig. That is, by assuming a time scale separation between the slow motion along the system coordinate x and the fast fluctuations of the bath, a memory-free Langevin equation can be derived that describes the system's motion on the free energy landscape F ( 𝒙 ) , which is damped by a friction field and driven by a stochastic force that is related to the friction via the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. While the theoretical formulation of Zwanzig typically assumes a highly idealized form of the bath Hamiltonian and the system-bath coupling, one would like to extend the approach to realistic data-based biomolecular systems. Here a practical method is proposed to construct an analytically defined global model of structural dynamics. Given a molecular dynamics simulation and adequate collective coordinates, the approach employs an "empirical valence bond"-type model which is suitable to represent multidimensional free energy landscapes as well as an approximate description of the friction field. Adopting alanine dipeptide and a three-dimensional model of heptaalanine as simple examples, the resulting Langevin model is shown to reproduce the results of the underlying all-atom simulations. Because the Langevin equation can also be shown to satisfy the underlying assumptions of the theory (such as a delta-correlated Gaussian-distributed noise), the global model provides a correct, albeit empirical, realization of Zwanzig's formulation. As an application, the model can be used to investigate the dependence of the system on parameter changes and to predict the effect of site-selective mutations on the dynamics.

  8. Global Methodology to Integrate Innovative Models for Electric Motors in Complete Vehicle Simulators Méthodologie générale d’intégration de modèles innovants de moteurs électriques dans des simulateurs véhicules complets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelli A.

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available By what means the greenhouse gas emissions of passenger cars can be reduced to 120 g/km in 2012 and 95 g/km in 2020 as the European Commission and the automotive manufacturers are stated? This question with multi answers preoccupies at the moment the whole automobile world. One of the most promising solutions which receive attention is the electrification of the vehicle. It is this idea that has prompted the automobile manufacturers to envisage increasingly innovative hybrid vehicles. However, this theoretically interesting solution makes more complex the powertrain, which requires the use of simulation tools in order to reduce the cost and the time of system development. System simulation, which is already a crucial tool for the design process of internal combustion engines, becomes indispensable in the development of the Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV. To study the complex structures of HEV, following the example of the physical models developed for the internal combustion engine, system simulation has to provide itself of the same predictive models for electric machines. From their specifications, these models have to take into account the strict constraint on the time simulation. This constraint guarantees the wide use of simulators, notably to help the development and the validation of control strategies. This paper aims to present a global methodology to develop innovative models of electrical machines. The final objective of these models is to be integrated in a global vehicle simulator. This methodology includes several types of models and tools, as Finite Elements Models (FEM, characterization and simulating models. This methodology was applied successfully to model an internal permanent magnet synchronous motors. At the end of the modelling process of the electric motor, the latter has been integrated in a complete global hybrid vehicle. This guarantees the good operation and integration in the global process of a new vehicle concept

  9. Global identification predicts gay-male identity integration and well-being among Turkish gay men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koc, Yasin; Vignoles, Vivian L

    2016-12-01

    In most parts of the world, hegemonic masculinity requires men to endorse traditional masculine ideals, one of which is rejection of homosexuality. Wherever hegemonic masculinity favours heterosexuality over homosexuality, gay males may feel under pressure to negotiate their conflicting male gender and gay sexual identities to maintain positive self-perceptions. However, globalization, as a source of intercultural interaction, might provide a beneficial context for people wishing to create alternative masculinities in the face of hegemonic masculinity. Hence, we tested if global identification would predict higher levels of gay-male identity integration, and indirectly subjective well-being, via alternative masculinity representations for gay and male identities. A community sample of 219 gay and bisexual men from Turkey completed the study. Structural equation modelling revealed that global identification positively predicted gay-male identity integration, and indirectly subjective well-being; however, alternative masculinity representations did not mediate this relationship. Our findings illustrate how identity categories in different domains can intersect and affect each other in complex ways. Moreover, we discuss mental health and well-being implications for gay men living in cultures where they experience high levels of prejudice and stigma. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  10. Modified Heisenberg Ferromagnet Model and Integrable Equation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    We investigate some integrable modified Heisenberg ferromagnet models by using the prolongation structure theory. Through associating them with the motion of curve in Minkowski space, the corresponding coupled integrable equations are presented.

  11. Integrative-index method of assessment of the countries’ financial globalization level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleh Mozhovyi

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the relevant problems of the complex evaluation of the countries’ financial globalization level. There were investigated methodological principles and assessment tools of both the economic globalization in general and its financial component. It offers an integrative index of the countries’ financial globalization based on which calculations we analyzed characteristic features and dynamism of the globalization processes development in the sphere of finance of some countries.

  12. INTEGRATED HYDROGEN STORAGE SYSTEM MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardy, B

    2007-11-16

    Hydrogen storage is recognized as a key technical hurdle that must be overcome for the realization of hydrogen powered vehicles. Metal hydrides and their doped variants have shown great promise as a storage material and significant advances have been made with this technology. In any practical storage system the rate of H2 uptake will be governed by all processes that affect the rate of mass transport through the bed and into the particles. These coupled processes include heat and mass transfer as well as chemical kinetics and equilibrium. However, with few exceptions, studies of metal hydrides have focused primarily on fundamental properties associated with hydrogen storage capacity and kinetics. A full understanding of the complex interplay of physical processes that occur during the charging and discharging of a practical storage system requires models that integrate the salient phenomena. For example, in the case of sodium alanate, the size of NaAlH4 crystals is on the order of 300nm and the size of polycrystalline particles may be approximately 10 times larger ({approx}3,000nm). For the bed volume to be as small as possible, it is necessary to densely pack the hydride particles. Even so, in packed beds composed of NaAlH{sub 4} particles alone, it has been observed that the void fraction is still approximately 50-60%. Because of the large void fraction and particle to particle thermal contact resistance, the thermal conductivity of the hydride is very low, on the order of 0.2 W/m-{sup o}C, Gross, Majzoub, Thomas and Sandrock [2002]. The chemical reaction for hydrogen loading is exothermic. Based on the data in Gross [2003], on the order of 10{sup 8}J of heat of is released for the uptake of 5 kg of H{sub 2}2 and complete conversion of NaH to NaAlH{sub 4}. Since the hydride reaction transitions from hydrogen loading to discharge at elevated temperatures, it is essential to control the temperature of the bed. However, the low thermal conductivity of the hydride

  13. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  14. Global Embedding of Fibre Inflation Models

    CERN Document Server

    Cicoli, Michele; Shukla, Pramod

    2016-01-01

    We present concrete embeddings of fibre inflation models in globally consistent type IIB Calabi-Yau orientifolds with closed string moduli stabilisation. After performing a systematic search through the existing list of toric Calabi-Yau manifolds, we find several examples that reproduce the minimal setup to embed fibre inflation models. This involves Calabi-Yau manifolds with $h^{1,1}= 3$ which are K3 fibrations over a $\\mbb{P}^1$ base with an additional shrinkable rigid divisor. We then provide different consistent choices of the underlying brane set-up which generate a non-perturbative superpotential suitable for moduli stabilisation and string loop corrections with the correct form to drive inflation. For each Calabi-Yau orientifold setting, we also compute the effect of higher derivative contributions and study their influence on the inflationary dynamics.

  15. Web Application for Modeling Global Antineutrinos

    CERN Document Server

    Barna, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Electron antineutrinos stream freely from rapidly decaying fission products within nuclear reactors and from long-lived radioactivity within Earth. Those with energy greater than 1.8 MeV are regularly observed by several kiloton-scale underground detectors. These observations estimate the amount of terrestrial radiogenic heating, monitor the operation of nuclear reactors, and measure the fundamental properties of neutrinos. The analysis of antineutrino observations at operating detectors or the planning of projects with new detectors requires information on the expected signal and background rates. We present a web application for modeling global antineutrino energy spectra and detection rates for any surface location. Antineutrino sources include all registered nuclear reactors as well as the crust and mantle of Earth. Visitors to the website may model the location and power of a hypothetical nuclear reactor, copy energy spectra, and analyze the significance of a selected signal relative to background.

  16. Hurricane Footprints in Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco J. Tapiador

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the identification of hurricanes in low-resolution global climate models (GCM. As hurricanes are not fully resolvable at the coarse resolution of the GCMs (typically 2.5 × 2.5 deg, indirect methods such as analyzing the environmental conditions favoring hurricane formation have to be sought. Nonetheless, the dynamical cores of the models have limitations in simulating hurricane formation, which is a far from fully understood process. Here, it is shown that variations in the specific entropy rather than in dynamical variables can be used as a proxy of the hurricane intensity as estimated by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE. The main application of this research is to ascertain the changes in the hurricane frequency and intensity in future climates.

  17. A Universal Model of Global Civil Unrest

    CERN Document Server

    Braha, Dan

    2012-01-01

    Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, we analyze records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919-2008. We demonstrate that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.

  18. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30-60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9  Tg( O3 from 273 to an average from the sensitivity runs of 299 Tg(O3. % revised Thus, there is a spread of ± 35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  19. Sensitivities in global scale modeling of isoprene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. von Kuhlmann

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity study of the treatment of isoprene and related parameters in 3D atmospheric models was conducted using the global model of tropospheric chemistry MATCH-MPIC. A total of twelve sensitivity scenarios which can be grouped into four thematic categories were performed. These four categories consist of simulations with different chemical mechanisms, different assumptions concerning the deposition characteristics of intermediate products, assumptions concerning the nitrates from the oxidation of isoprene and variations of the source strengths. The largest differences in ozone compared to the reference simulation occured when a different isoprene oxidation scheme was used (up to 30–60% or about 10 nmol/mol. The largest differences in the abundance of peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN were found when the isoprene emission strength was reduced by 50% and in tests with increased or decreased efficiency of the deposition of intermediates. The deposition assumptions were also found to have a significant effect on the upper tropospheric HOx production. Different implicit assumptions about the loss of intermediate products were identified as a major reason for the deviations among the tested isoprene oxidation schemes. The total tropospheric burden of O3 calculated in the sensitivity runs is increased compared to the background methane chemistry by 26±9 Tg(O3 from 273 to 299 Tg(O(3. Thus, there is a spread of ±35% of the overall effect of isoprene in the model among the tested scenarios. This range of uncertainty and the much larger local deviations found in the test runs suggest that the treatment of isoprene in global models can only be seen as a first order estimate at present, and points towards specific processes in need of focused future work.

  20. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  1. Description of selected global models for scenario studies on environmentally sustainable development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakkes JA; Grosskurt J; Ienburg AM; Rothman DS; Vuuren DP van; OECD; ICIS; MNV; ICIS; LAE

    2001-01-01

    This report provides a survey of past and present integrated models that have been used for the generation and analysis of global scenarios. It examines the usefulness of the models for scenario studies on environmentally sustainable development. It does so by evaluating the models in terms of inter

  2. Global Quantitative Modeling of Chromatin Factor Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jian; Troyanskaya, Olga G.

    2014-01-01

    Chromatin is the driver of gene regulation, yet understanding the molecular interactions underlying chromatin factor combinatorial patterns (or the “chromatin codes”) remains a fundamental challenge in chromatin biology. Here we developed a global modeling framework that leverages chromatin profiling data to produce a systems-level view of the macromolecular complex of chromatin. Our model ultilizes maximum entropy modeling with regularization-based structure learning to statistically dissect dependencies between chromatin factors and produce an accurate probability distribution of chromatin code. Our unsupervised quantitative model, trained on genome-wide chromatin profiles of 73 histone marks and chromatin proteins from modENCODE, enabled making various data-driven inferences about chromatin profiles and interactions. We provided a highly accurate predictor of chromatin factor pairwise interactions validated by known experimental evidence, and for the first time enabled higher-order interaction prediction. Our predictions can thus help guide future experimental studies. The model can also serve as an inference engine for predicting unknown chromatin profiles — we demonstrated that with this approach we can leverage data from well-characterized cell types to help understand less-studied cell type or conditions. PMID:24675896

  3. A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data.  The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

  4. Architectural view model for an integration platform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Górski

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The most common architectural view model is "4+1" by Philipe Kruchten. This model presents the views required for a full description of computer system architecture. By contrast, this model seems to be insufficient to describe architecture of integration platform. Definitely lacks the view of integrated business processes. In the serviceoriented approach, one of the basic elements is a contract. It should also be included in the description of the architecture. Moreover, very important are integration mechanisms and mediation flows that should be presented in the description of architecture. Hence the need for integrated services view, and manner of their integration on the enterprise service bus. Use case view should also be extended by stereotypes required for presenting functionality exposed for other computer systems. It is therefore proposed architectural view model “1+5” for an integration platform. This model has following architectural views: Integrated processes, Use Cases, Logical, Integrated Services, Contracts, Deployment. Furthermore, in article was presented new UML profile "UML Profile for Integration Flows". In the profile were placed stereotypes corresponding to integration patterns and mediation mechanisms. It is important, that UML activity diagram was extended and its special form was obtained to model mediation flows on integration platform. Thus was proposed a new UML diagram: mediation flows diagram.

  5. Global Drought Assessment using a Multi-Model Dataset

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lanen, van H.A.J.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Corzo Perez, G.; Wanders, N.; Hazenberg, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Estifanos, S.; Melsen, L.A.

    2011-01-01

    Large-scale models are often applied to study past drought (forced with global reanalysis datasets) and to assess future drought (using downscaled, bias-corrected forcing from climate models). The EU project WATer and global CHange (WATCH) provides a 0.5o degree global dataset of meteorological

  6. Global Drought Assessment using a Multi-Model Dataset

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lanen, van H.A.J.; Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Corzo Perez, G.; Wanders, N.; Hazenberg, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Estifanos, S.; Melsen, L.A.

    2011-01-01

    Large-scale models are often applied to study past drought (forced with global reanalysis datasets) and to assess future drought (using downscaled, bias-corrected forcing from climate models). The EU project WATer and global CHange (WATCH) provides a 0.5o degree global dataset of meteorological forc

  7. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We includ

  8. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We

  9. Global Stability of a Discrete Mutualism Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Yang

    2014-01-01

    difference equations, sufficient conditions which ensure the global asymptotical stability of the interior equilibrium of the system are obtained. The conditions which ensure the local stability of the positive equilibrium is enough to ensure the global attractivity are proved.

  10. Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xinanjiang model using meta-modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-meng SONG

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters’ sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

  11. Modeling integrated biomass gasification business concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Ted Bilek; Mark A. Dietenberger

    2011-01-01

    Biomass gasification is an approach to producing energy and/or biofuels that could be integrated into existing forest product production facilities, particularly at pulp mills. Existing process heat and power loads tend to favor integration at existing pulp mills. This paper describes a generic modeling system for evaluating integrated biomass gasification business...

  12. Modeling global and regional energy futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rethinaraj, T. S. Gopi

    A rigorous econometric calibration of a model of energy consumption is presented using a comprehensive time series database on energy consumption and other socioeconomic indicators. The future of nuclear power in the evolving distribution of various energy sources is also examined. An important consideration for the long-term future of nuclear power concerns the rate of decline of the fraction of energy that comes from coal, which has historically declined on a global basis about linearly as a function of the cumulative use of coal. The use of fluid fossil fuels is also expected to eventually decline as the more readily extractable deposits are depleted. The investigation here is restricted to examining a comparatively simple model of the dynamics of competition between nuclear and other competing energy sources. Using a defined tropical/temperate disaggregation of the world, region-specific modeling results are presented for population growth, GDP growth, energy use, and carbon use compatible with a gradual transition to energy sustainability. Results for the fractions of energy use from various sources by grouping nine commercial primary energy sources into pairs of competing fuel categories are presented in combination with the idea of experiential learning and resource depletion. Analysis based on this division provides estimates for future evolution of the fractional shares, annual use rates, cumulative use of individual energy sources, and the economic attractiveness of spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. This unified approach helps to conceptualize and understand the dynamics of evolution of importance of various energy resources over time.

  13. The Effects of Various Regional and Global Integration Indices on Foreign Direct Investment (Case Study: OPEC Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekoofe Nagheli

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Economic integration at global and regional level is one of the most important consequences of mutual relationships of countries. Given that capital is the stimulant of economic growth and development and developing countries are often faced with lack of capital, they are trying to compensate this with foreign borrowing but regarding crises resulted from it foreign direct investment is being used as its substitute. The main objective of this paper is to study the effect of economic integration and globalization on FDI attraction. In order to achieve the above goal foreign direct investment equation for Asian countries is estimated by Stata software using panel data during 2001-2011 based on theoretical literature of gravity model and using of econometric methods. Our results, as we expected reveal that there is a positive relation between economic integration and foreign investment. Comparison of results in different cases shows that co-integration has more impacts on FDI for OPEC Countries under globalization conditions. In globalization cases, integration is the best choice for attracting of FDI in OPEC.

  14. Integrated studies of uncultured microbes in the global ocean (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, C.; Rusch, D.; Martiny, A.; Lasken, R.

    2010-12-01

    The Global Ocean Sampling (GOS) initiative at the J. Craig Venter Institute represents the most extensive metagenomic study of a single environment. Early findings highlighted the potential of shotgun metagenomics to expand our knowledge of marine microbial biodiversity and physiology. However, it also became clear that many of the abundant marine microbes remain uncultured, hindering a direct connection between phylogeny and ecophysiology. In two recent studies, a combination of single cell genomics and aggressive assembly of binned metagenomic data have resulted in the acquisition of multiple genomes for two uncultured but globally relevant organisms. Metabolic reconstructions of the whole genomes revealed unique physiological adaptations in marine Prochlorococcus to high nutrient, low Fe regions of the global ocean and illuminated the potential ecological role of the gamma-proteobacterial 16S clade SAR86. The internal reference genomes also facilitate fragment recruitment based biogeographical studies, both at the whole genome level and the protein level.

  15. Ukrainian-Russian trade and economic relations under global integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiy Pylypenko

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Examining Ukraine’s trade and economic cooperation with the Russian Federation (RF, as they integrate their economies into the world economy, the author of this article focuses on the integrative priorities of both countries: cooperation within the framework of CIS, BSEC. SES, EU, WTO and other organizations. Moreover, the author considers the possibility of converging the actions of Ukraine and Russia within the context of their accession to the WTO or coordinating with Russia the accession of Ukraine to the WTO. In analyzing the integrative priorities of Ukraine and Russia, the author offers his scenarios for the development of Ukrainian-Russian relations.

  16. Enhanced global integration of closed contours in individuals with high levels of autistic-like traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Renita A; Dickinson, J Edwin; Maybery, Murray T; Badcock, Johanna C; Badcock, David R

    2014-10-01

    Individuals with autistic traits (measured with Autism-spectrum Quotient, AQ) often excel in detecting shapes hidden within complex structures (e.g. on the Embedded Figures Test, EFT). This facility has been attributed to either weaker global integration of scene elements or enhanced local processing, but 'local' and 'global' have various meanings in the literature. The function of specific global visual mechanisms involved in integrating contours, similar to EFT targets was examined. High AQ scorers produced enhanced performance on the EFT and an alternative Radial Frequency Search Task. Contrary to 'generic' interpretations of weaker global pooling, this group displayed stronger pooling of contour components that was correlated with search ability. This study therefore shows a global contour integration advantage in high AQ observers.

  17. Integrated spatial sampling modeling of geospatial data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Lianfa; WANG Jinfeng

    2004-01-01

    Spatial sampling is a necessary and important method for extracting geospatial data and its methodology directly affects the geo-analysis results. Counter to the deficiency of separate models of spatial sampling, this article analyzes three crucial elements of spatial sampling (frame, correlation and decision diagram) and induces its general integrated model. The program of Spatial Sampling Integration (SSI) has been developed with Component Object Model (COM) to realize the general integrated model. In two practical applications, i.e. design of the monitoring network of natural disasters and sampling survey of the areas of non-cultivated land, SSI has produced accurate results at less cost, better realizing the cost-effective goal of sampling toward the geo-objects with spatial correlation. The two cases exemplify expanded application and convenient implementation of the general integrated model with inset components in an integrated environment, which can also be extended to other modeling of spatial analysis.

  18. Progress in Developing an Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decola, P.; Butler, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies suggest that, if society can do no better than the commitments it's already made to reducing greenhouse gases, we will achieve a 2C threshold by 2030 and a 3C threshold by 2050 [e.g., Jackson et al., 2015]. Given that a global average of 2C or 3C translates to about three times that (6C, 9C) over continents, this portends a future of on-going climate change for generations to come, with all of its concomitant struggles in adapting. It also portends a global society looking increasingly at ways to mitigate the cause(s) of climate change. Recent events have propelled that to some extent already, but it is likely we will see more as time goes on. Nevertheless, there is a huge difference between making commitments and achieving them. Nations, states, cities, resource managers, energy interests, and other invested parties will be looking at ways to reduce emissions, driven either by markets, taxes, or other relevant policies. Anticipating this need, WMO has begun developing an implementation plan for an Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS). To work effectively, an IG3IS must integrate high quality observations from multiple and varied platforms, incorporate observation-based information from transport models, and deliver useful information at sub-continental, policy-relevant scales. Existing surface-based networks, emerging networks in developing countries, and new aircraft-based measurements and satellite observations make a difference, but additional observations and improved transport modeling are critical. This presentation will look at what is available, what the gaps are, and how IG3IS intends to address them.

  19. ABOUT DEFICIT MANAGEMENT IN THE CONDITIONS OF MARKET INTEGRATION AND GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chivu Luminita

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of the world trade, the unprecedented opening of the national markets, the regional integration and the consistency of globalization represent challenges having in view the management of the internal balances between cashing ins and payments

  20. Ground-Based Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor (IPW)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Ground-Based Global Positioning System (GPS) Meteorology Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor (IPW) data set measures atmospheric water vapor using ground-based...

  1. An integrative review of global nursing workforce issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Barbara L; Davis, Catherine R; Richardson, Donna R

    2010-01-01

    Migration has been a way of life since the beginning of time, with migrants seeking other lands for personal and professional betterment. Today, in an era of globalization, trade agreements and technological advances, an increase in migration is inevitable. All professions have been affected, but the migration of health professionals, particularly nurses, has been the most dramatic. However, the migration of nurses across national and international borders comes with many challenges: systematic tracking of migration flows, harmonization of standards, recognition of professional credentials, fair and equitable distribution of the global health care workforce, and the effect of migration on the health care infrastructure of both source and destination countries. The international migration of nurses to address shortages in developed countries has, in some instances, left source countries with insufficient resources to address their own health care needs. The increasing complexity of health care delivery, aging of the population and the nursing workforce, and the escalating global demand for nurses create on-going challenges for policy makers. Strategically addressing global nursing workforce issues is paramount to sustaining the health of nations.

  2. Integrating Biology, Chemistry, and Mathematics to Evaluate Global Water Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosal, Erica; Lawrence, Carol; Austin, Rodney

    2010-01-01

    An interdisciplinary and context-driven course focused on global water issues was developed and taught at the college level. Students designed a semester-long research project, collected and analyzed data, and ultimately presented their results and conclusions to the larger community. As a result of the course, students' science literacy improved…

  3. Integrating Biology, Chemistry, and Mathematics to Evaluate Global Water Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosal, Erica; Lawrence, Carol; Austin, Rodney

    2010-01-01

    An interdisciplinary and context-driven course focused on global water issues was developed and taught at the college level. Students designed a semester-long research project, collected and analyzed data, and ultimately presented their results and conclusions to the larger community. As a result of the course, students' science literacy improved…

  4. Integrating forest products with ecosystem services: a global perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert L. Deal; Rachel. White

    2012-01-01

    Around the world forests provide a broad range of vital ecosystem services. Sustainable forest management and forest products play an important role in global carbon management, but one of the major forestry concerns worldwide is reducing the loss of forestland from development. Currently, deforestation accounts for approximately 20% of total greenhouse gas emissions....

  5. A Fractionally Integrated Wishart Stochastic Volatility Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThere has recently been growing interest in modeling and estimating alternative continuous time multivariate stochastic volatility models. We propose a continuous time fractionally integrated Wishart stochastic volatility (FIWSV) process. We derive the conditional Laplace transform of

  6. Freight integration in liner shipping: a strategy serving global production networks

    OpenAIRE

    Notteboom, T.; Merckx, F.

    2006-01-01

    Container shipping lines are well aware of the growing importance of global production networks. While continuing to focus on improving the fundamentals, many shipping lines have developed a keen interest in other segments of the logistics and transportation market to offer integrated and worldwide services to global production networks. This paper aims to assess the overall level of freight integration in thirty-four shipping lines, and provides an insight into the extent to which freight in...

  7. Modelling of the Global Geopotential Energy & Stress Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, C.; Nielsen, S. B.

    2012-04-01

    Lateral density and topography variations yield in and important contribution to the lithospheric stress field. The leading quantity is the Geopotential Energy, the integrated lithostatic pressure in a rock column. The horizontal gradient of this quantity is related to horizontal stresses through the Equations of equilibrium of stresses. The Geopotential Energy furthermore can be linearly related to the Geoid under assumption of local isostasy. Satellite Geoid measurements contain, however, also non-isostatic deeper mantle responses of long wavelength. Unfortunately, high-pass filtering of the Geoid does not suppress only the deeper sources. The age-dependent signal of the oceanic lithosphere, for instance, is of long wave length and a prominent representative of in-plane stress, derived from the horizontal gradient of isostatic Geoid anomalies and responsible for the ridge push effect. Therefore a global lithospheric density model is required in order to isolate the shallow Geoid signal and calculate the stress pattern from isostatically compensated lithospheric sources. We use a linearized inverse method to fit a lithospheric reference model to observations such as topography and surface heat flow in the presence of local isostasy and a steady state geotherm. Subsequently we use a FEM code to solve the Equations of equilibrium of stresses for a three dimensional elastic shell. The modelled results are shown and compared with the global stress field and other publications.

  8. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  9. Verification of tropical cyclone using the KIAPS Integration Model (KIM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, S.; Seol, K. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) is a government funded non-profit research and development institute located in Seoul, South Korea. KIAPS is developing the Global Model, a backbone for the next-generation operational global numerical weather prediction (NWP) system with three-phase plans; Establishment and R&D Planning (2011-2013), Test Model Development (2014-2016), and Operational Model Development (2017-2019). As a second-phase, we have beta version of KIAPS Integration Model (KIM) that can produce reasonable global forecasting. Using the KIM model, we are evaluating the tropical cyclone forecast in the global model. To objectively provide a best estimate of the storm's central position, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) vortex tracker, widely used in tracker algorithms. It gives the track and intensity of the storm throughout the duration of the forecast based on its algorithm. As a verification tool, we use the Model Evaluation Tool - Tropical Cyclone (MET-TC), which produces statistical evaluation. We expect these results give the statue of ability for the tropical cyclone forecast with KIM model.

  10. Global land cover map validation, comparison and integration for different user communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsendbazar, N.E.

    2016-01-01

    Global land cover map validation, comparison and integration for different user communities Abstract Observation of global-scale land cover is of importance to international initiatives, governments, and scientific communities that endeavour to understand and monito

  11. Integrating Global Learning into a Psychology Course Using an Online Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forden, Carie L.; Carrillo, Amy M.

    2014-01-01

    There is a demand for the integration of global learning/diversity across the curriculum. A series of cross-cultural assignments was created to facilitate global learning in two social psychology classes, one in Egypt, and one in the USA. In these assignments, students collected data and applied course concepts to real-life problems, then…

  12. Smartphone Application Enabling Global Graph Exploitation and Proactive Dissemination Service (DSPro) Integration (Revised Fiscal Year 2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    ARL-TN-0696 ● SEP 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Smartphone Application Enabling Global Graph Exploitation and Proactive ...US Army Research Laboratory Smartphone Application Enabling Global Graph Exploitation and Proactive Dissemination Service (DSPro) Integration...Revised Fiscal Year 2015) by Mark R Mittrick Computational and Information Sciences Directorate, ARL Approved for public

  13. An Empirical Analysis of the Integration-Responsiveness Framework in Global Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Kendall Roth; Allen J Morrison

    1990-01-01

    In this study, business competing in global industries were categorized into three groups according to the integration responsiveness framework for conceptualizing industry pressures confronting business competing internationally. Using this framework, contextual conditions associated with each group were examined. Competitive attributes distinguishing each group were then identified to clarify alternate business-level strategies for competing within a global industry context. Beyond providin...

  14. China-East Asia Cooperation——In the Context of Economic Globalization and Regional Integration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Ⅰ.Economic globalization and regional integration Economic globalization, a general trend in the world’s development today, is interdependence for various countries in its real sense. Economic globalization, which began in the initial stage of development of capitalism, has a history of over a hundred years, and has undergone several stages from raw material procurement to trade in commodities and then to technology transfer and capital export, making economic links

  15. Global Urban Mapping and Modeling for Sustainable Urban Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.; Li, X.; Asrar, G.; Yu, S.; Smith, S.; Eom, J.; Imhoff, M. L.

    2016-12-01

    In the past several decades, the world has experienced fast urbanization, and this trend is expected to continue for decades to come. Urbanization, one of the major land cover and land use changes (LCLUC), is becoming increasingly important in global environmental changes, such as urban heat island (UHI) growth and vegetation phenology change. Better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably require reliable science-based information on spatiotemporal changes in urban extent and their environmental impacts. In this study, we developed a globally consistent 20-year urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization from the nighttime lights remote sensing data, and projected future urban expansion in the 21st century by employing an integrated modeling framework (Zhou et al. 2014, Zhou et al. 2015). We then evaluated the impacts of urbanization on building energy use and vegetation phenology that affect both ecosystem services and human health. We extended the modeling capability of building energy use in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with consideration of UHI effects by coupling the remote sensing based urbanization modeling and explored the impact of UHI on building energy use. We also investigated the impact of urbanization on vegetation phenology by using an improved phenology detection algorithm. The derived spatiotemporal information on historical and potential future urbanization and its implications in building energy use and vegetation phenology will be of great value in sustainable urban design and development for building energy use and human health (e.g., pollen allergy), especially when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change. Zhou, Y., S. J. Smith, C. D. Elvidge, K. Zhao, A. Thomson & M. Imhoff (2014) A cluster-based method to map urban area from DMSP/OLS nightlights. Remote Sensing of Environment, 147, 173-185. Zhou, Y., S. J. Smith, K. Zhao, M. Imhoff, A

  16. MEASURING INFORMATION INTEGR-ATION MODEL FOR CAD/CMM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    A CAD/CMM workpiece modeling system based on IGES file is proposed. The modeling system is implemented by using a new method for labelling the tolerance items of 3D workpiece. The concept-"feature face" is used in the method. First the CAD data of workpiece are extracted and recognized automatically. Then a workpiece model is generated, which is the integration of pure 3D geometry form with its corresponding inspection items. The principle of workpiece modeling is also presented. At last, the experiment results are shown and correctness of the model is certified.

  17. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, Michele [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Mayrhofer, Christoph [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Valandro, Roberto [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik

    2011-10-15

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r

  18. Moduli stabilisation for chiral global models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, Michele [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); Mayrhofer, Christoph [Heidelberg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik; Valandro, Roberto [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). 2. Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik

    2011-10-15

    We combine moduli stabilisation and (chiral) model building in a fully consistent global set-up in Type IIB/F-theory. We consider compactifications on Calabi-Yau orientifolds which admit an explicit description in terms of toric geometry. We build globally consistent compactifications with tadpole and Freed-Witten anomaly cancellation by choosing appropriate brane set-ups and world-volume fluxes which also give rise to SU(5)- or MSSM-like chiral models. We fix all the Kaehler moduli within the Kaehler cone and the regime of validity of the 4D effective field theory. This is achieved in a way compatible with the local presence of chirality. The hidden sector generating the non-perturbative effects is placed on a del Pezzo divisor that does not have any chiral intersections with any other brane. In general, the vanishing D-term condition implies the shrinking of the rigid divisor supporting the visible sector. However, we avoid this problem by generating r

  19. Acquisition Integration Models: How Large Companies Successfully Integrate Startups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Carbone

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Mergers and acquisitions (M&A have been popular means for many companies to address the increasing pace and level of competition that they face. Large companies have pursued acquisitions to more quickly access technology, markets, and customers, and this approach has always been a viable exit strategy for startups. However, not all deals deliver the anticipated benefits, in large part due to poor integration of the acquired assets into the acquiring company. Integration can greatly impact the success of the acquisition and, indeed, the combined company’s overall market success. In this article, I explore the implementation of several integration models that have been put into place by a large company and extract principles that may assist negotiating parties with maximizing success. This perspective may also be of interest to smaller companies as they explore exit options while trying to ensure continued market success after acquisition. I assert that business success with acquisitions is dependent on an appropriate integration model, but that asset integration is not formulaic. Any integration effort must consider the specific market context and personnel involved.

  20. Global dust model intercomparison in AeroCom phase I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Huneeus

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the results of a broad intercomparison of a total of 15 global aerosol models within the AeroCom project. Each model is compared to observations related to desert dust aerosols, their direct radiative effect, and their impact on the biogeochemical cycle, i.e., aerosol optical depth (AOD and dust deposition. Additional comparisons to Angström exponent (AE, coarse mode AOD and dust surface concentrations are included to extend the assessment of model performance and to identify common biases present in models. These data comprise a benchmark dataset that is proposed for model inspection and future dust model development. There are large differences among the global models that simulate the dust cycle and its impact on climate. In general, models simulate the climatology of vertically integrated parameters (AOD and AE within a factor of two whereas the total deposition and surface concentration are reproduced within a factor of 10. In addition, smaller mean normalized bias and root mean square errors are obtained for the climatology of AOD and AE than for total deposition and surface concentration. Characteristics of the datasets used and their uncertainties may influence these differences. Large uncertainties still exist with respect to the deposition fluxes in the southern oceans. Further measurements and model studies are necessary to assess the general model performance to reproduce dust deposition in ocean regions sensible to iron contributions. Models overestimate the wet deposition in regions dominated by dry deposition. They generally simulate more realistic surface concentration at stations downwind of the main sources than at remote ones. Most models simulate the gradient in AOD and AE between the different dusty regions. However the seasonality and magnitude of both variables is better simulated at African stations than Middle East ones. The models simulate the offshore transport of West Africa throughout the year

  1. Global sourcing - performance and integration : reflections on performance, implications from cross-functional and external integration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horn, Philipp

    2013-01-01

    Despite the fact that firms and individuals have been sourcing on a global basis since ancient times, global sourcing as a topic has received considerable attention from managers and scholars in recent years. Global business has been reported to be growing considerably during the last decades and

  2. Global sourcing - performance and integration : reflections on performance, implications from cross-functional and external integration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horn, Philipp

    2013-01-01

    Despite the fact that firms and individuals have been sourcing on a global basis since ancient times, global sourcing as a topic has received considerable attention from managers and scholars in recent years. Global business has been reported to be growing considerably during the last decades and th

  3. Global Climate Models of the Terrestrial Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forget, F.; Lebonnois, S.

    On the basis of the global climate models (GCMs) originally developed for Earth, several teams around the world have been able to develop GCMs for the atmospheres of the other terrestrial bodies in our solar system: Venus, Mars, Titan, Triton, and Pluto. In spite of the apparent complexity of climate systems and meteorology, GCMs are based on a limited number of equations. In practice, relatively complete climate simulators can be developed by combining a few components such as a dynamical core, a radiative transfer solver, a parameterization of turbulence and convection, a thermal ground model, and a volatile phase change code, possibly completed by a few specific schemes. It can be shown that many of these GCM components are "universal" so that we can envisage building realistic climate models for any kind of terrestrial planets and atmospheres that we can imagine. Such a tool is useful for conducting scientific investigations on the possible climates of terrestrial extrasolar planets, or to study past environments in the solar system. The ambition behind the development of GCMs is high: The ultimate goal is to build numerical simulators based only on universal physical or chemical equations, yet able to reproduce or predict all the available observations on a given planet, without any ad hoc forcing. In other words, we aim to virtually create in our computers planets that "behave" exactly like the actual planets themselves. In reality, of course, nature is always more complex than expected, but we learn a lot in the process. In this chapter we detail some lessons learned in the solar system: In many cases, GCMs work. They have been able to simulate many aspects of planetary climates without difficulty. In some cases, however, problems have been encountered, sometimes simply because a key process has been forgotten in the model or is not yet correctly parameterized, but also because sometimes the climate regime seems to be result of a subtle balance between

  4. Integrating Concepts into Curricular Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitmann, Helen M.

    1981-01-01

    Movement is motivated, encouraged, and governed by psycho-social development, motor development, and humanistic principles as well as by exercise physiology and kinesiology. The Basic Stuff series identifies the body of knowledge which underlies purposeful movement and can be integrated into concept or fundamental skill curricula. (JN)

  5. An integral, positive psychology paradigm for global coherence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Edwards

    data, applicable to all academic fields and scientific disciplines, which is freely available for use. ... An integral approach typically utilises an all quadrants, all levels (AQAL) ..... research on the mechanisms whereby the earth's magnetic fields affect .... research, for example, legal research involving copyright and plagiarism ...

  6. Global Format for Conservative Time Integration in Nonlinear Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krenk, Steen

    2014-01-01

    The widely used classic collocation-based time integration procedures like Newmark, Generalized-alpha etc. generally work well within a framework of linear problems, but typically may encounter problems, when used in connection with essentially nonlinear structures. These problems are overcome in...

  7. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn

    Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... degree of parameterization which results in significant model uncertainty which cannot be reduced much due to observations often being scarce and often taking the form of point measurements. Data assimilation shows great promise for use in integrated hydrological models , as it allows for observations...... to be efficiently combined with models to improve model predictions, reduce uncertainty and estimate model parameters. In this thesis, a framework for assimilating multiple observation types and updating multiple components and parameters of a catchment scale integrated hydrological model is developed and tested...

  8. Global health diplomacy: an integrative review of the literature and implications for nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Anita; Wilson, Lynda; Stanhope, Marcia; Hatcher, Barbara; Hattar, Marianne; Hilfinger Messias, Deanne K; Powell, Dorothy

    2013-01-01

    The increasing interconnectedness of the world and the factors that affect health lay the foundation for the evolving practice of global health diplomacy. There has been limited discussion in the nursing literature about the concept of global health diplomacy or the role of nurses in such initiatives. A discussion of this concept is presented here by the members of a Task Force on Global Health Diplomacy of the American Academy of Nursing Expert Panel on Global Nursing and Health (AAN EPGNH). The purpose of this article is to present an integrative review of literature on the concept of global health diplomacy and to identify implications of this emerging field for nursing education, practice, and research. The steps proposed by Whittemore and Knafl (2005) were adapted and applied to the integrative review of theoretical and descriptive articles about the concept of global health diplomacy. This review included an analysis of the historical background, definition, and challenges of global health diplomacy and suggestions about the preparation of global health diplomats. The article concludes with a discussion of implications for nursing practice, education, and research. The Task Force endorses the definition of global health diplomacy proposed by Adams, Novotny, and Leslie (2008) but recommends that further dialogue and research is necessary to identify opportunities and educational requirements for nurses to contribute to the emerging field of global health diplomacy.

  9. Integrating NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) Data Into Global Agricultural Decision Support Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, W.; Kempler, S.; Chiu, L.; Doraiswamy, P.; Liu, Z.; Milich, L.; Tetrault, R.

    2003-12-01

    Monitoring global agricultural crop conditions during the growing season and estimating potential seasonal production are critically important for market development of U.S. agricultural products and for global food security. Two major operational users of satellite remote sensing for global crop monitoring are the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP). The primary goal of FAS is to improve foreign market access for U.S. agricultural products. The WFP uses food to meet emergency needs and to support economic and social development. Both use global agricultural decision support systems that can integrate and synthesize a variety of data sources to provide accurate and timely information on global crop conditions. The Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Distributed Active Archive Center (GES DAAC) has begun a project to provide operational solutions to FAS and WFP, by fully leveraging results from previous work, as well as from existing capabilities of the users. The GES DAAC has effectively used its recently developed prototype TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS) to provide ESE data and information to the WFP for its agricultural drought monitoring efforts. This prototype system will be evolved into an Agricultural Information System (AIS), which will operationally provide ESE and other data products (e.g., rainfall, land productivity) and services, to be integrated into and thus enhance the existing GIS-based, decision support systems of FAS and WFP. Agriculture-oriented, ESE data products (e.g., MODIS-based, crop condition assessment product; TRMM derived, drought index product) will be input to a crop growth model in collaboration with the USDA Agricultural Research Service, to generate crop condition and yield prediction maps. The AIS will have the capability for remotely accessing distributed data, by being compliant with community-based interoperability standards, enabling easy access to

  10. Implementing a business improvement model based on integrated plant information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swanepoel, Hendrika Francina

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The World Energy Council defines numerous challenges in the global energy arena that put pressure on owners and /operators to operate run existing plant better and more efficiently. As such there is an increasing focus on the use of business and technical plant information and data to make better, more integrated, and more informed decisions on the plant. The research study developed a business improvement model (BIM that can be used to establish an integrated plant information management infrastructure as the core foundation for of business improvement initiatives. Operational research then demonstrated how this BIM approach could be successfully implemented to improve business operations and provide decision-making insight.

  11. Global Tectonics of Enceladus: Numerical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czechowski, Leszek

    2016-10-01

    Introduction: Enceladus, a satellite of Saturn, is the smallest celestial body in the Solar System where volcanic and tectonic activities are observed. Every second, the mass of 200 kg is ejected into space from the South Polar Terrain (SPT) - [1]. The loss of matter from the body's interior should lead to global compression of the crust. Typical effects of compression are: thrust faults, folding and subduction. However, such forms are not dominant on Enceladus. We propose here special tectonic process that could explain this paradox. Our hypotheses states that the mass loss from SPT is the main driving mechanism of the following tectonic processes: subsidence of SPT, flow in the mantle and motion of adjacent tectonic plates. The hypotheses is presented in [2], [3] and[4].We suggest that the loss of the volatiles results in a void, an instability, and motion of solid matter to fill the void. The motion is presented at the Fig.1 and includes:Subsidence of the 'lithosphere' of SPT.Flow of the matter in the mantle.Motion of plates adjacent to SPT towards the active regionMethods and results: The numerical model of processes presented is developed. It is based on the equations of continuous media..If emerging void is being filled by the subsidence of SPT only, then the velocity of subsidence is 0.05 mmyr-1. However, numerical calculations indicate that all three types of motion are usually important. The role of a given motion depends on the viscosity distribution. Generally, for most of the models the subsidence is 0.02 mmyr-1, but mantle flow and plates' motion also play a role in filling the void. The preliminary results of the numerical model indicate also that the velocity of adjacent plates could be 0.02 mmyr-1 for the Newtonian rheology.Note that in our model the reduction of the crust area is not a result of compression but it is a result of the plate sinking. Therefore the compressional surface features do not have to be dominant. The SPT does not have to be

  12. New Global Bathymetry and Topography Model Grids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, W. H.; Sandwell, D. T.; Marks, K. M.

    2008-12-01

    A new version of the "Smith and Sandwell" global marine topography model is available in two formats. A one-arc-minute Mercator projected grid covering latitudes to +/- 80.738 degrees is available in the "img" file format. Also available is a 30-arc-second version in latitude and longitude coordinates from pole to pole, supplied as tiles covering the same areas as the SRTM30 land topography data set. The new effort follows the Smith and Sandwell recipe, using publicly available and quality controlled single- and multi-beam echo soundings where possible and filling the gaps in the oceans with estimates derived from marine gravity anomalies observed by satellite altimetry. The altimeter data have been reprocessed to reduce the noise level and improve the spatial resolution [see Sandwell and Smith, this meeting]. The echo soundings database has grown enormously with new infusions of data from the U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO), the National Geospatial-intelligence Agency (NGA), hydrographic offices around the world volunteering through the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), and many other agencies and academic sources worldwide. These new data contributions have filled many holes: 50% of ocean grid points are within 8 km of a sounding point, 75% are within 24 km, and 90% are within 57 km. However, in the remote ocean basins some gaps still remain: 5% of the ocean grid points are more than 85 km from the nearest sounding control, and 1% are more than 173 km away. Both versions of the grid include a companion grid of source file numbers, so that control points may be mapped and traced to sources. We have compared the new model to multi-beam data not used in the compilation and find that 50% of differences are less than 25 m, 95% of differences are less than 130 m, but a few large differences remain in areas of poor sounding control and large-amplitude gravity anomalies. Land values in the solution are taken from SRTM30v2, GTOPO30 and ICESAT data

  13. Modelling of the Global Geopotential Energy & Stress Field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiffer, Christian; Nielsen, S.B.

    Lateral density and topography variations yield in and important contribution to the lithospheric stress field. The leading quantity is the Geopotential Energy, the integrated lithostatic pressure in a rock column. The horizontal gradient of this quantity is related to horizontal stresses through...... the Equations of equilibrium of stresses. The Geopotential Energy furthermore can be linearly related to the Geoid under assumption of local isostasy. Satellite Geoid measurements contain, however, also non-isostatic deeper mantle responses of long wavelength. Unfortunately, high-pass filtering of the Geoid...... flow in the presence of local isostasy and a steady state geotherm. Subsequently we use a FEM code to solve the Equations of equilibrium of stresses for a three dimensional elastic shell. The modelled results are shown and compared with the global stress field and other publications....

  14. Integrating comparative functional response experiments into global change research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Eoin J

    2014-05-01

    There is a growing appreciation for the importance of non-consumptive effects in predator-prey interaction research, which can often outweigh the importance of direct feeding. Barrios-O'Neill et al. (2014) report a novel method to characterize such effects by comparing the functional response of native and introduced intermediate consumers in the presence and absence of a higher predator. The invader exhibited stronger direct feeding and was also more resistant to intimidation by the higher predator. This experimental framework may be incorporated into mainstream global change research, for example, to quantify the importance of non-consumptive effects for the success or failure of biological invasions.

  15. Globalization and Shanghai Model: A Retrospective and Prospective Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linsun Cheng

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Intended to shed light on the debate on the results of globalization and providebetter understanding of the influences of globalization upon China as well as theworld, this article traces the history of Shanghai’s economic globalization over thepast 170 years since 1843 and demonstrates the benefits and problems Shanghaireceived from (or connected to its economic globalization. Divided into threesections (Globalization, de-globalization and re-globalization of Shanghai’s economy;Manufacturing-Oriented vs. Tertiary-oriented—Shanghai’s Double PriorityStrategy of Economic Growth; Free market, state enterprises, and Shanghai’s mixedeconomy the article summarizes and analyzes several characteristics that madeShanghai a unique model in the history of globalization: In adapting and adoptinginevitable economic globalization, Shanghai created its unique model of economicdevelopment—widely embracing economic globalization; placing Shanghai’seconomy on a solid foundation of both strong modern manufacturing and strongtertiary industry (consisting of finance and insurance, real estate, transportations,post and telecommunication, wholesale and retailing; and creating a mixedeconomic structure with hybrid of private and state owned enterprises. TheShanghai model proves that globalization has been an unavoidable trend as scienceand technology have made the world “smaller” and “smaller.” Actively engaging intoeconomic globalization is the only way for Shanghai, as well as many developingcountries, to accelerate its economic growth.

  16. Delta Shell: Integrated Modeling by Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donchyts, G.; Jagers, B.; Baart, F.; Geer, P. V.

    2011-12-01

    We present the integrated modeling environment Delta Shell. It supports the full workflow of integrated environmental modeling: setup, configuration, simulation, analysis and reporting of results. Many components of the environment can be reused independently, allowing development of scientific, geospatial and other applications focused on data analysis, editing, visualization and storage. One of the unique features is that the Delta Shell environment integrates models from many different fields, such as hydrodynamics, hydrology, morphology, ecology, water quality, geospatial and decision support systems. This integration is possible due to flexible general data types, lightweight model coupling framework, the plugin system and the inclusion of a number of high quality open source components. Here we will use the open source morphological model XBeach as an example showing how to integrate models into the Delta Shell environment. Integration of XBeach adds a graphical interface which can be used to make testing coastal safety for complicated coastal areas easier. By using this example, we give an overview of the modeling framework and its possibilities. To increase the usability, the model is integrated with a coastal profile data set covering the whole coast of the Netherlands. This gives the end user a system to easily use the model for scanning the safety of the Dutch coast. The reuse of the components of the environment individually or combined is encouraged. They are available as separate components and have minimal or no dependencies on other components. This includes libraries to work with scientific multidimensional data, geospatial data (in particular geospatial coverages: values of some quantities defined on a spatial domain), editors, visualisation of time-dependent data and the modeling framework (projects, data linking, workflow management, model integration). Most components and the XBeach example are available as open source.

  17. Exploring Connections Between Global Integration and Political Mobilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jackie Smith

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available With the end of the Cold War, military security issues declined on the international agenda as environmental, economic, and social issues rose. As superpower con?ict faded from the international agenda, space was created for new attempts at multilateral problem-solving. How have these changes a?ected the prospects for transnational organizing? Using data from the Yearbook of International Associations this paper explores changes in the size, issue focus, geographic makeup, and organizational structure of the population of transnational social movement organizations (TSMOs in recent decades. While not the only form of transna-tional cooperation, these formal organizations provide important infrastructures for sustained transnational political work. Key ?ndings are that while the transnational social movement sector has continued to grow since the mid-20th century, its rate of growth has slowed in the 1990s. Also, human rights and environment predominate on TSMO issue-agendas, but during the 1990s more groups emphasized economic issues and adopted multi-issue organizing frames over single-issue focuses. Newer groups were more likely to be organized regionally, that is within the global North or South, which may re?ect e?orts to develop structures to better connect local settings with global networks.

  18. Progress toward an Integrated Global GHG Information System (IG3IS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCola, Philip

    2016-04-01

    from a specific human activity. Based upon the recent advances in GHG observation technologies, new data-mining tools for acquiring socioeconomic activity data, and enhancements to the computational models used to merge this data, WMO and its partners are developing a plan for an Integrated Global GHG Information System (IG3IS) able to evaluate the efficacy of policy, reduce emission inventory uncertainty, and inform additional mitigation actions. The presentation will cover the principles and objectives of IG3IS, as well as progress toward answering the questions: What research capabilities are ready and able to deliver useful information for whom? What decisions will be informed? What valuable and additional outcomes will result?

  19. Internal integration as a pre-condition for external integration in global sourcing: A social capital perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horn, Philipp; Scheffler, Paul; Schiele, Holger

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore the link between integration and global sourcing success in international operations and by doing so, to clarify the ambiguous picture that prevails in the existing literature. Specifically, this quantitative study aims at identifying the role of the buying

  20. Internal integration as a pre-condition for external integration in global sourcing: A social capital perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horn, Philipp; Scheffler, Paul; Schiele, Holger

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore the link between integration and global sourcing success in international operations and by doing so, to clarify the ambiguous picture that prevails in the existing literature. Specifically, this quantitative study aims at identifying the role of the buying co

  1. A Global MBA for Tomorrow's Global Business Leaders: Integrating Best Practice with Boston's Locational Advantage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaunay, Christian J.; Blodgett, Mark S.

    2005-01-01

    Traditional IB programs have received mixed reviews from the corporate world. With this in mind, the Suffolk GMBA was benchmarked against the leading international business programs. The Suffolk GMBA was designed to be different and to ascertain the global environment in which business operates. A unique feature of the GMBA curriculum detailed in…

  2. Theories and models of globalization ethicizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dritan Abazović

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Globalization as a phenomenon is under the magnifying glass of many philosophical discussions and theoretical deliberations. While most theorists deal with issues that are predominantly of economic or political character, this article has a different logic. The article presents six theories which in their own way explain the need for movement by ethicizing globalization. Globalization is a process that affects all and as such it has become inevitable, but it is up the people to determine its course and make it either functional or uncontrolled. The survival and development of any society is measured primarily by the quality of its moral and ethical foundation. Therefore, it is clear that global society can survive and be functional only if it finds a minimum consensus on ethical norms or, as said in theory, if it establishes its ethical system based on which it would be built and developed.

  3. Model Identification of Integrated ARMA Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadnytska, Tetiana; Braun, Simone; Werner, Joachim

    2008-01-01

    This article evaluates the Smallest Canonical Correlation Method (SCAN) and the Extended Sample Autocorrelation Function (ESACF), automated methods for the Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model selection commonly available in current versions of SAS for Windows, as identification tools for integrated processes. SCAN and ESACF can…

  4. Social Ecological Model Analysis for ICT Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagami, Jason

    2013-01-01

    ICT integration of teacher preparation programmes was undertaken by the Australian Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project in all 39 Australian teacher education institutions and highlighted the need for guidelines to inform systemic ICT integration approaches. A Social Ecological Model (SEM) was used to positively inform integration…

  5. Model Identification of Integrated ARMA Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadnytska, Tetiana; Braun, Simone; Werner, Joachim

    2008-01-01

    This article evaluates the Smallest Canonical Correlation Method (SCAN) and the Extended Sample Autocorrelation Function (ESACF), automated methods for the Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model selection commonly available in current versions of SAS for Windows, as identification tools for integrated processes. SCAN and ESACF can…

  6. An integrated communications demand model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doubleday, C. F.

    1980-11-01

    A computer model of communications demand is being developed to permit dynamic simulations of the long-term evolution of demand for communications media in the U.K. to be made under alternative assumptions about social, economic and technological trends in British Telecom's business environment. The context and objectives of the project and the potential uses of the model are reviewed, and four key concepts in the demand for communications media, around which the model is being structured are discussed: (1) the generation of communications demand; (2) substitution between media; (3) technological convergence; and (4) competition. Two outline perspectives on the model itself are given.

  7. Introduction to the Integrated Domain Modeling Toolset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slihte Armands

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the Integrated Domain Modeling approach and introduces the supporting toolset as a solution to the complex domain-modeling task. This approach integrates artificial intelligence (AI and system analysis by exploiting ontology, natural language processing (NLP, use cases and model-driven architecture (MDA for knowledge engineering and domain modeling. The IDM toolset provides the opportunity to automatically generate the initial AS-IS model from the formally defined domain knowledge. In this paper, we describe in detail the scope, architecture and implementation of the toolset.

  8. Global Hydrological Hazard Evaluation System (Global BTOP) Using Distributed Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusyev, M.; Magome, J.; Hasegawa, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2015-12-01

    A global hydrological hazard evaluation system based on the BTOP models (Global BTOP) is introduced and quantifies flood and drought hazards with simulated river discharges globally for historical, near real-time monitoring and climate change impact studies. The BTOP model utilizes a modified topographic index concept and simulates rainfall-runoff processes including snowmelt, overland flow, soil moisture in the root and unsaturated zones, sub-surface flow, and river flow routing. The current global BTOP is constructed from global data on 10-min grid and is available to conduct river basin analysis on local, regional, and global scale. To reduce the impact of a coarse resolution, topographical features of global BTOP were obtained using river network upscaling algorithm that preserves fine resolution characteristics of 3-arcsec HydroSHEDS and 30-arcsec Hydro1K datasets. In addition, GLCC-IGBP land cover (USGS) and the DSMW(FAO) were used for the root zone depth and soil properties, respectively. The long-term seasonal potential evapotranspiration within BTOP model was estimated by the Shuttleworth-Wallace model using climate forcing data CRU TS3.1 and a GIMMS-NDVI(UMD/GLCF). The global BTOP was run with globally available precipitation such APHRODITE dataset and showed a good statistical performance compared to the global and local river discharge data in the major river basins. From these simulated daily river discharges at each grid, the flood peak discharges of selected return periods were obtained using the Gumbel distribution with L-moments and the hydrological drought hazard was quantified using standardized runoff index (SRI). For the dynamic (near real-time) applications, the global BTOP model is run with GSMaP-NRT global precipitation and simulated daily river discharges are utilized in a prototype near-real time discharge simulation system (GFAS-Streamflow), which is used to issue flood peak discharge alerts globally. The global BTOP system and GFAS

  9. Global daily reference evapotranspiration modeling and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senay, G.B.; Verdin, J.P.; Lietzow, R.; Melesse, Assefa M.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ???100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world

  10. Global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration modeled using a global database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hashimoto

    2015-03-01

    3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C−1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. Our results, including the modeled spatiotemporal distribution of global soil respiration, are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. We expect that these spatiotemporal estimates will provide a benchmark for future studies and also help to constrain process-oriented models.

  11. Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doll, Petra; Douville, Herve; Guntner, Andreas; Schmied, Hannes Muller; Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

  12. Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Döll, Petra; Douville, Hervé; Güntner, Andreas; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-03-01

    Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

  13. Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doll, Petra; Douville, Herve; Guntner, Andreas; Schmied, Hannes Muller; Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

  14. DIVA: an iterative method for building modular integrated models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkel, J.

    2005-08-01

    Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world's coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project's beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project's lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.

  15. Integration of satellite fire products into MPI Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Kloster, Silvia

    2013-04-01

    Fires are the ubiquitous phenomenon affecting all natural biomes. Since the beginning of the satellite Era, fires are being continuously observed from satellites. The most interesting satellite parameter retrieved from satellite measurements is the burned area. Combined with information on biomass available for burning the burned area can be translated into climate relevant carbon emissions from fires into the atmosphere. In this study we integrate observed burned area into a global vegetation model to derive global fire emissions. Global continuous burned area dataset is provided by the Global Fire Emissions Dataset (GFED). GFED products were obtained from MODIS (and pre-MODIS) satellites and are available for the time period of 14 years (1997-2011). This dataset is widely used, well documented and supported by periodical updates containing new features. We integrate the global burned area product into the land model JSBACH, a part of the Earth-System model developed at the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology. The land model JSBACH simulates land biomass in terms of carbon content. Fire is an important disturbance process in the Earth's carbon cycle and affects mainly the carbon stored in vegetation. In the standard JSBACH version fire is represented by process based algorithms. Using the satellite data as an alternative we are targeting better comparability of modeled carbon emissions with independent satellite measurements of atmospheric composition. The structure of burned vegetation inside of a biome can be described as the balance between woody and herbaceous vegetation. GFED provides in addition to the burned area satellite derived information of the tree cover distribution within the burned area. Using this dataset, we can attribute the burned area to the respective simulated herbaceous or woody biomass within the vegetation model. By testing several extreme cases we evaluate the quantitative impact of vegetation balance between woody and herbaceous

  16. Integral Models of Extremal Rational Elliptic Surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Jarvis, Tyler J; Ricks, Jeremy R

    2009-01-01

    Miranda and Persson classified all extremal rational elliptic surfaces in characteristic zero. We show that each surface in Miranda and Persson's classification has an integral model with good reduction everywhere (except for those of type X_{11}(j), which is an exceptional case), and that every extremal rational elliptic surface over an algebraically closed field of characteristic p > 0 can be obtained by reducing one of these integral models mod p.

  17. Architecture design in global and model-centric software development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijstek, Werner

    2012-01-01

    This doctoral dissertation describes a series of empirical investigations into representation, dissemination and coordination of software architecture design in the context of global software development. A particular focus is placed on model-centric and model-driven software development.

  18. Architecture design in global and model-centric software development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijstek, Werner

    2012-01-01

    This doctoral dissertation describes a series of empirical investigations into representation, dissemination and coordination of software architecture design in the context of global software development. A particular focus is placed on model-centric and model-driven software development.

  19. Integrated materials–structural models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stang, Henrik; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Reliable service life models for load carrying structures are significant elements in the evaluation of the performance and sustainability of existing and new structures. Furthermore, reliable service life models are prerequisites for the evaluation of the sustainability of maintenance strategies......, repair works and strengthening methods for structures. A very significant part of the infrastructure consists of reinforced concrete structures. Even though reinforced concrete structures typically are very competitive, certain concrete structures suffer from various types of degradation. A framework...

  20. A normalization model of multisensory integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohshiro, Tomokazu; Angelaki, Dora E; DeAngelis, Gregory C

    2011-06-01

    Responses of neurons that integrate multiple sensory inputs are traditionally characterized in terms of a set of empirical principles. However, a simple computational framework that accounts for these empirical features of multisensory integration has not been established. We propose that divisive normalization, acting at the stage of multisensory integration, can account for many of the empirical principles of multisensory integration shown by single neurons, such as the principle of inverse effectiveness and the spatial principle. This model, which uses a simple functional operation (normalization) for which there is considerable experimental support, also accounts for the recent observation that the mathematical rule by which multisensory neurons combine their inputs changes with cue reliability. The normalization model, which makes a strong testable prediction regarding cross-modal suppression, may therefore provide a simple unifying computational account of the important features of multisensory integration by neurons.

  1. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS: The Utmost Interdisciplinary Integrator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Eissfeller

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently four global satellite navigation systems are under modernization and development: The US American GPS III, the Russian GLONASS, the European Galileo and Chinese BeiDou systems. In the paper the interdisciplinary contributions of different scientific areas to GNSS are assessed. It is outlined that GNSS is not only a technical system but also a basic element of mobile computing high-tech market. At the same time a GNSS has the role of a force enabler in security related applications. Technology, market and security policies are interdependent and are sometimes in a relationship of tension. The goal of the paper is to describe the overall systemics of GNSS from a holistic point of view. The paper also addresses the human factor side of GNSS. The requirements on human resources in GNSS are at least two-fold: On the one hand very specialized engineers are needed; on the other hand the generalists are necessary who are able to understand the system aspects. Decision makers in institutions and industry need special knowledge in technologies, economics and political strategies. Is the current university system able to educate and prepare such generalists? Are specialized master courses for GNSS needed? Are external training courses necessary?

  2. Efficient numerical integrators for stochastic models

    CERN Document Server

    De Fabritiis, G; Español, P; Coveney, P V

    2006-01-01

    The efficient simulation of models defined in terms of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) depends critically on an efficient integration scheme. In this article, we investigate under which conditions the integration schemes for general SDEs can be derived using the Trotter expansion. It follows that, in the stochastic case, some care is required in splitting the stochastic generator. We test the Trotter integrators on an energy-conserving Brownian model and derive a new numerical scheme for dissipative particle dynamics. We find that the stochastic Trotter scheme provides a mathematically correct and easy-to-use method which should find wide applicability.

  3. Integrating Natural Gas Hydrates in the Global Carbon Cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Archer; Bruce Buffett

    2011-12-31

    We produced a two-dimensional geological time- and basin-scale model of the sedimentary margin in passive and active settings, for the simulation of the deep sedimentary methane cycle including hydrate formation. Simulation of geochemical data required development of parameterizations for bubble transport in the sediment column, and for the impact of the heterogeneity in the sediment pore fluid flow field, which represent new directions in modeling methane hydrates. The model is somewhat less sensitive to changes in ocean temperature than our previous 1-D model, due to the different methane transport mechanisms in the two codes (pore fluid flow vs. bubble migration). The model is very sensitive to reasonable changes in organic carbon deposition through geologic time, and to details of how the bubbles migrate, in particular how efficiently they are trapped as they rise through undersaturated or oxidizing chemical conditions and the hydrate stability zone. The active margin configuration reproduces the elevated hydrate saturations observed in accretionary wedges such as the Cascadia Margin, but predicts a decrease in the methane inventory per meter of coastline relative to a comparable passive margin case, and a decrease in the hydrate inventory with an increase in the plate subduction rate.

  4. Beyond Scientism and Skepticism: An Integrative Approach to Global Mental Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan J Stein

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The global burden of disorders has shifted from infectious disease to non-communicable diseases, including neuropsychiatric disorders. Whereas infectious disease can sometimes be combated by targeting single causal mechanisms, such as prevention of contact-spread illness by hand-washing, in the case of mental disorders multiple causal mechanisms are relevant. The emergent field of global mental health has emphasized the magnitude of the treatment gap, particularly in the low and middle income world, and has paid particular attention to upstream causal factors, for example, poverty, inequality, and gender discrimination in the pathogenesis of mental disorders. However, this field has also been criticised for relying on erroneous Western paradigms of mental illness, which may not be relevant or appropriate to the low- and middle-income context. Here, it is important to steer a path between scienticism and skepticism. Scientism regards mental disorders as essential categories, and takes a covering law approach to causality; skepticism regards mental disorders as merely social constructions, and emphasizes the role of political power in causal relations. We propose an integrative model that emphasizes the contribution of a broad range of causal mechanisms operating at biological and societal levels to mental disorders, and the consequent importance of broad-spectrum and multi-pronged approaches to intervention.

  5. Beyond Scientism and Skepticism: An Integrative Approach to Global Mental Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Dan J.; Illes, Judy

    2015-01-01

    The global burden of disorders has shifted from infectious disease to non-communicable diseases, including neuropsychiatric disorders. Whereas infectious disease can sometimes be combated by targeting single causal mechanisms, such as prevention of contact-spread illness by handwashing, in the case of mental disorders multiple causal mechanisms are typically relevant. The emergent field of global mental health has emphasized the magnitude of the treatment gap, particularly in the low- and middle-income world and has paid particular attention to upstream causal factors, for example, poverty, inequality, and gender discrimination in the pathogenesis of mental disorders. However, this field has also been criticized for relying erroneously on Western paradigms of mental illness, which may not be relevant or appropriate to the low- and middle-income context. Here, it is important to steer a path between scientism and skepticism. Scientism regards mental disorders as essential categories, and takes a covering law approach to causality; skepticism regards mental disorders as merely social constructions and emphasizes the role of political power in causal relations. We propose an integrative model that emphasizes the contribution of a broad range of causal mechanisms operating at biological and societal levels to mental disorders and the consequent importance of broad spectrum and multipronged approaches to intervention. PMID:26635641

  6. INTEGRATION OF FACILITY MODELING CAPABILITIES FOR NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorensek, M.; Hamm, L.; Garcia, H.; Burr, T.; Coles, G.; Edmunds, T.; Garrett, A.; Krebs, J.; Kress, R.; Lamberti, V.; Schoenwald, D.; Tzanos, C.; Ward, R.

    2011-07-18

    Developing automated methods for data collection and analysis that can facilitate nuclear nonproliferation assessment is an important research area with significant consequences for the effective global deployment of nuclear energy. Facility modeling that can integrate and interpret observations collected from monitored facilities in order to ascertain their functional details will be a critical element of these methods. Although improvements are continually sought, existing facility modeling tools can characterize all aspects of reactor operations and the majority of nuclear fuel cycle processing steps, and include algorithms for data processing and interpretation. Assessing nonproliferation status is challenging because observations can come from many sources, including local and remote sensors that monitor facility operations, as well as open sources that provide specific business information about the monitored facilities, and can be of many different types. Although many current facility models are capable of analyzing large amounts of information, they have not been integrated in an analyst-friendly manner. This paper addresses some of these facility modeling capabilities and illustrates how they could be integrated and utilized for nonproliferation analysis. The inverse problem of inferring facility conditions based on collected observations is described, along with a proposed architecture and computer framework for utilizing facility modeling tools. After considering a representative sampling of key facility modeling capabilities, the proposed integration framework is illustrated with several examples.

  7. A simple integrated assessment approach to global change simulation and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, Keroboto; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    We formulate and study the Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model, which constitutes the basis of our idealized integrated assessment approach to simulating and evaluating global change. CoCEB is composed of a physical climate module, based on Earth's energy balance, and an economy module that uses endogenous economic growth with physical and human capital accumulation. A biosphere model is likewise under study and will be coupled to the existing two modules. We concentrate on the interactions between the two subsystems: the effect of climate on the economy, via damage functions, and the effect of the economy on climate, via a control of the greenhouse gas emissions. Simple functional forms of the relation between the two subsystems permit simple interpretations of the coupled effects. The CoCEB model is used to make hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement, in particular by investing in low carbon technology, in deforestation reduction or in carbon capture and storage (CCS). The CoCEB model is very flexible and transparent, and it allows one to easily formulate and compare different functional representations of climate change mitigation policies. Using different mitigation measures and their cost estimates, as found in the literature, one is able to compare these measures in a coherent way.

  8. Towards accounting for dissolved iron speciation in global ocean models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Tagliabue

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The trace metal iron (Fe is now routinely included in state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry models (OGCBMs because of its key role as a limiting nutrient in regions of the world ocean important for carbon cycling and air-sea CO2 exchange. However, the complexities of the seawater Fe cycle, which impact its speciation and bioavailability, are simplified in such OGCBMs due to gaps in understanding and to avoid high computational costs. In a similar fashion to inorganic carbon speciation, we outline a means by which the complex speciation of Fe can be included in global OGCBMs in a reasonably cost-effective manner. We construct an Fe speciation model based on hypothesised relationships between rate constants and environmental variables (temperature, light, oxygen, pH, salinity and assumptions regarding the binding strengths of Fe complexing organic ligands and test hypotheses regarding their distributions. As a result, we find that the global distribution of different Fe species is tightly controlled by spatio-temporal environmental variability and the distribution of Fe binding ligands. Impacts on bioavailable Fe are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding which Fe species are bioavailable and how those species vary in space and time. When forced by representations of future ocean circulation and climate we find large changes to the speciation of Fe governed by pH mediated changes to redox kinetics. We speculate that these changes may exert selective pressure on phytoplankton Fe uptake strategies in the future ocean. In future work, more information on the sources and sinks of ocean Fe ligands, their bioavailability, the cycling of colloidal Fe species and kinetics of Fe-surface coordination reactions would be invaluable. We hope our modeling approach can provide a means by which new observations of Fe speciation can be tested against hypotheses of the processes present in governing the ocean Fe cycle in an

  9. Ontology modeling in physical asset integrity management

    CERN Document Server

    Yacout, Soumaya

    2015-01-01

    This book presents cutting-edge applications of, and up-to-date research on, ontology engineering techniques in the physical asset integrity domain. Though a survey of state-of-the-art theory and methods on ontology engineering, the authors emphasize essential topics including data integration modeling, knowledge representation, and semantic interpretation. The book also reflects novel topics dealing with the advanced problems of physical asset integrity applications such as heterogeneity, data inconsistency, and interoperability existing in design and utilization. With a distinctive focus on applications relevant in heavy industry, Ontology Modeling in Physical Asset Integrity Management is ideal for practicing industrial and mechanical engineers working in the field, as well as researchers and graduate concerned with ontology engineering in physical systems life cycles. This book also: Introduces practicing engineers, research scientists, and graduate students to ontology engineering as a modeling techniqu...

  10. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concent

  11. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric

  12. Integration and global analysis of isothermal titration calorimetry data for studying macromolecular interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brautigam, Chad A; Zhao, Huaying; Vargas, Carolyn; Keller, Sandro; Schuck, Peter

    2016-05-01

    Isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) is a powerful and widely used method to measure the energetics of macromolecular interactions by recording a thermogram of differential heating power during a titration. However, traditional ITC analysis is limited by stochastic thermogram noise and by the limited information content of a single titration experiment. Here we present a protocol for bias-free thermogram integration based on automated shape analysis of the injection peaks, followed by combination of isotherms from different calorimetric titration experiments into a global analysis, statistical analysis of binding parameters and graphical presentation of the results. This is performed using the integrated public-domain software packages NITPIC, SEDPHAT and GUSSI. The recently developed low-noise thermogram integration approach and global analysis allow for more precise parameter estimates and more reliable quantification of multisite and multicomponent cooperative and competitive interactions. Titration experiments typically take 1-2.5 h each, and global analysis usually takes 10-20 min.

  13. Integrated ground-based and remotely sensed data to support global studies of environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.; Turner, R.S.; Garten, C.T.

    1994-09-15

    Data centers routinely archive and distribute large databases of high quality and with rigorous documentation but, to meet the needs of global studies effectively and efficiently, data centers must go beyond these traditional roles. Global studies of environmental change require integrated databases of multiple data types that are accurately coordinated in terms of spatial, temporal and thematic properties. Such datasets must be designed and developed jointly by scientific researchers, computer specialists, and policy analysts. The presentation focuses on our approach for organizing data from ground-based research programs so that the data can be linked with remotely sensed data and other map data into integrated databases with spatial, temporal, and thematic characteristics relevant to global studies. The development of an integrated database for Net Primary Productivity is described to illustrate the process.

  14. ON THE GLOBAL VALIDITY OF SYMPLECTIC INTEGRATION METHOD

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SunYisui; ZhouJilin

    1998-01-01

    Hadjidemetriou proposed a systematic method to construct a mapping model for a Hamiltonian system, the main idea is to preserve the basic feature of actual system in the mapping, i. e. , to preserve the local topology of phase space not only qualitatively but also quantitatively.

  15. The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In

  16. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  17. The integrated global temperature change potential (iGTP) and relationships between emission metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Glen P.; Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.

    2011-12-01

    The Kyoto Protocol compares greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) using the global warming potential (GWP) with a 100 yr time-horizon. The GWP was developed, however, to illustrate the difficulties in comparing GHGs. In response, there have been many critiques of the GWP and several alternative emission metrics have been proposed. To date, there has been little focus on understanding the linkages between, and interpretations of, different emission metrics. We use an energy balance model to mathematically link the absolute GWP, absolute global temperature change potential (AGTP), absolute ocean heat perturbation (AOHP), and integrated AGTP. For pulse emissions, energy conservation requires that AOHP = AGWP - iAGTP/λ and hence AGWP and iAGTP are closely linked and converge as AOHP decays to zero. When normalizing the metrics with CO2 (GWP, GTP, and iGTP), we find that the iGTP and GWP are similar numerically for a wide range of GHGs and time-horizons, except for very short-lived species. The similarity between the iGTPX and GWPX depends on how well a pulse emission of CO2 can substitute for a pulse emission of X across a range of time-horizons. The ultimate choice of emission metric(s) and time-horizon(s) depends on policy objectives. To the extent that limiting integrated temperature change over a specific time-horizon is consistent with the broader objectives of climate policy, our analysis suggests that the GWP represents a relatively robust, transparent and policy-relevant emission metric.

  18. Modeling the Global Workplace Using Emerging Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Patricia; Hickok, Corey

    2008-01-01

    The Fall 2006 term of COM495, Senior Practicum in Communication, offered communication and information design students the privilege of taking part in a transatlantic intercultural virtual project. To emulate real world experience in today's global workplace, these students researched and completed a business communication project with German…

  19. Modelling global container freight transport demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ivanova, O.; Halim, R.A.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to discuss methods and techniques for a quantitative and descriptive analysis of future container transport demand at a global level. Information on future container transport flows is useful for various purposes. It is instrumental for the assessment of returns of i

  20. Modeling the Global Workplace Using Emerging Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Patricia; Hickok, Corey

    2008-01-01

    The Fall 2006 term of COM495, Senior Practicum in Communication, offered communication and information design students the privilege of taking part in a transatlantic intercultural virtual project. To emulate real world experience in today's global workplace, these students researched and completed a business communication project with German…

  1. GLOBAL INTEGRATED ISR: A BETTER ORGANIZATIONAL CONSTRUCT FOR AIR FORCE LD/HD ISR

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-06

    AIR WAR COLLEGE AIR UNIVERSITY GLOBAL INTEGRATED ISR: A BETTER ORGANIZATIONAL CONSTRUCT FOR AIR FORCE LD/HD ISR by Nicholas A. Nobriga...agility and flexibility in order to counter trans-regional threats seamlessly. This is especially true for the Air Force’s fleet of U-2, RQ-4, RC-135, and...Concept for Joint Operations: Joint Force 2020—providing maximum global agility and flexibility .3 Current trends around the globe point toward a future

  2. Assuring Mechanical Integrity of Refinery Equipment Through Global ON-Stream Inspection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Berthold

    2006-02-22

    The development of global on-stream inspection technology will have a dramatic effect on how refinery operations are managed in the U.S. in the future. Global on-stream inspection will provide assurance of the mechanical integrity of critical plant equipment and will allow refineries to operate more efficiently with less impact on our environment and with an increased margin of safety.

  3. Modeling of global variations and ring shadowing in Saturn's ionosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, L. E.; Mendillo, M.; Müller-Wodarg, I. C. F.; Murr, D. L.

    2004-12-01

    A time-dependent one-dimensional model of Saturn's ionosphere has been developed as an intermediate step towards a fully coupled Saturn Thermosphere-Ionosphere Model (STIM). A global circulation model (GCM) of the thermosphere provides the latitude and local time dependent neutral atmosphere, from which a globally varying ionosphere is calculated. Four ion species are used (H +, H +2, H +3, and He +) with current cross-sections and reaction rates, and the SOLAR2000 model for the Sun's irradiance. Occultation data from the Voyager photopolarimeter system (PPS) are adapted to model the radial profile of the ultraviolet (UV) optical depth of the rings. Diurnal electron density peak values and heights are generated for all latitudes and two seasons under solar minimum and solar maximum conditions, both with and without shadowing from the rings. Saturn's lower ionosphere is shown to be in photochemical equilibrium, whereas diffusive processes are important in the topside. In agreement with previous 1-D models, the ionosphere is dominated by H + and H +3, with a peak electron density of ˜10 electrons cm -3. At low- and mid-latitudes, H + is the dominant ion, and the electron density exhibits a diurnal maximum during the mid-afternoon. At higher latitudes and shadowed latitudes (smaller ionizing fluxes), the diurnal maximum retreats towards noon, and the ratio of [H +]/[H +3] decreases, with H +3 becoming the dominant ion at altitudes near the peak (˜1200-1600 km) for noon-time hours. Shadowing from the rings leads to attenuation of solar flux, the magnitude and latitudinal structure of which is seasonal. During solstice, the season for the Cassini spacecraft's encounter with Saturn, attenuation has a maximum of two orders of magnitude, causing a reduction in modeled peak electron densities and total electron column contents by as much as a factor of three. Calculations are performed that explore the parameter space for charge-exchange reactions of H + with

  4. ENLIL Global Heliospheric Modeling as a Context For Multipoint Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, M. Leila; Odstrcil, Dusan; Luhmann, Janet; Bain, Hazel; Li, Yan; Schwadron, Nathan; Gorby, Matt; Thompson, Barbara; Jian, Lan; Möstl, Christian; Rouillard, Alexis; Davies, Jackie; Temmer, Manuela; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; MacNeice, Peter; Kuznetsova, Maria

    2016-04-01

    We present heliospheric simulation case studies using recent enhancements to WSA--ENLIL+Cone (version 2.8) at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). The global 3D MHD ENLIL model provides a time-dependent description of the background solar wind plasma and magnetic field using a sequence of WSA coronal model maps as input at the inner boundary of 21.5 Rs. A homogeneous, over-pressured hydrodynamic plasma cloud is launched through the inner boundary of the heliospheric computational domain and into the background solar wind. Multipoint observations help constrain simulations and this modeling system provides global context and arrival times of the solar wind streams and CMEs at Earth, planets, and spacecraft. Additionally, one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. ENLIL "likelihood/all-clear" forecasting maps provide expected intensity, timing/duration of events at locations throughout the heliosphere with "possible SEP affected areas" color-coded based on shock strength. ENLIL simulations are also useful to drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010) and Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM) (Schwadron et al., 2010). SEPMOD injects protons onto a sequence observer field lines at intensities dependent on the connected shock source strength which are then integrated at the observer to approximate the proton flux. EPREM couples with MHD models such as ENLIL and computes energetic particle distributions based on the focused transport equation along a Lagrangian grid of nodes that propagate out with the solar wind. Studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the heliosphere, and hence modeled CME arrival times and SEPs, are achieved by ENLIL only when the background solar wind is well-reproduced and CME parameters are accurate. It is essential to include all of the relevant CMEs and

  5. Effect of automobiles on global warming: A modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shyam Sundar

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Global warming threatens our environment as well as basic human needs. In the present scenario, increasing demand and excessive use of automobiles have increased the level of carbon dioxide emission in the environment, providing a significant contribution to increase the global warming. This paper deals with the modeling of the effect of automobiles on global warming. For this, three nonlinearly interacting variables namely; density of human population, density of automobiles and the concentration of carbon dioxide have been taken into account. In the modeling process, it is assumed that the density of automobiles increases in proportion to human population following a logistic growth. The model is analyzed using stability theory of ordinary differential equations. Local and global stability conditions are established to study the feasibility of the model system. It is shown that with increase in human population, the demand for automobiles increases which has significant effect on global warming increase.

  6. Progress toward an Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCola, P.; Butler, J. H.; Stanitski, D.; Tarasova, O. A.; Terblanche, D. E.; Duren, R. M.; Gurney, K. R.; Manning, A.; Reimann, S.; Ciais, P.; Arnold, T.; Burston, J.; Rayner, P. J.; Wofsy, S. C.; Hamburg, S.; Zavala-Araiza, D.; Miller, J. B.; Gerbig, C.; Vogel, F. R.; Canadell, J.

    2016-12-01

    Accurate and precise atmospheric long-term measurements of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have revealed the rapid and unceasing rise of global GHG concentrations due to human socioeconomic activity. Long-term observations also show a resulting rise in global temperatures and evidence of negative impacts on society. In response to this mounting evidence, nations, sub-national governments, private enterprises and individuals are establishing and accelerating efforts to reduce GHG emissions while meeting the needs for global development and increasing energy access. With this motivation, WMO and its partners have called for an Integrated Global Greenhouse Information System (IG3IS). The IG3IS will serve as an international coordinating mechanism to establish and propagate consistent methods and standards to help assess emission-reduction actions. For the IG3IS initiative to succeed the end users must understand, trust, and recognize the value of the information they receive, and act more effectively in response. Over time, the IG3IS framework will be capable of promoting and accepting advancing technical capabilities (e.g., new satellite observations), continually improving the quality of and confidence in such information. By combining accurate atmospheric measurements with enhanced socioeconomic activity data and model analyses we can meet the overarching goals of IG3IS to: Reduce uncertainty of emission inventory reporting, Locate, quantify and prioritize previously unknown emission reduction opportunities, and Provide national and sub-national governments with timely and quantified information to support their assessment of progress towards their mitigation goals. An effective IG3IS will provide on-going, observation-based information on the relative success of GHG management efforts on policy-relevant scales and the response of the global carbon cycle to a warming world. The presentation will cover the principles and objectives of IG3IS, as well as progress

  7. Integrating systems biology models and biomedical ontologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bono Bernard

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Systems biology is an approach to biology that emphasizes the structure and dynamic behavior of biological systems and the interactions that occur within them. To succeed, systems biology crucially depends on the accessibility and integration of data across domains and levels of granularity. Biomedical ontologies were developed to facilitate such an integration of data and are often used to annotate biosimulation models in systems biology. Results We provide a framework to integrate representations of in silico systems biology with those of in vivo biology as described by biomedical ontologies and demonstrate this framework using the Systems Biology Markup Language. We developed the SBML Harvester software that automatically converts annotated SBML models into OWL and we apply our software to those biosimulation models that are contained in the BioModels Database. We utilize the resulting knowledge base for complex biological queries that can bridge levels of granularity, verify models based on the biological phenomenon they represent and provide a means to establish a basic qualitative layer on which to express the semantics of biosimulation models. Conclusions We establish an information flow between biomedical ontologies and biosimulation models and we demonstrate that the integration of annotated biosimulation models and biomedical ontologies enables the verification of models as well as expressive queries. Establishing a bi-directional information flow between systems biology and biomedical ontologies has the potential to enable large-scale analyses of biological systems that span levels of granularity from molecules to organisms.

  8. Integrating systems biology models and biomedical ontologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Systems biology is an approach to biology that emphasizes the structure and dynamic behavior of biological systems and the interactions that occur within them. To succeed, systems biology crucially depends on the accessibility and integration of data across domains and levels of granularity. Biomedical ontologies were developed to facilitate such an integration of data and are often used to annotate biosimulation models in systems biology. Results We provide a framework to integrate representations of in silico systems biology with those of in vivo biology as described by biomedical ontologies and demonstrate this framework using the Systems Biology Markup Language. We developed the SBML Harvester software that automatically converts annotated SBML models into OWL and we apply our software to those biosimulation models that are contained in the BioModels Database. We utilize the resulting knowledge base for complex biological queries that can bridge levels of granularity, verify models based on the biological phenomenon they represent and provide a means to establish a basic qualitative layer on which to express the semantics of biosimulation models. Conclusions We establish an information flow between biomedical ontologies and biosimulation models and we demonstrate that the integration of annotated biosimulation models and biomedical ontologies enables the verification of models as well as expressive queries. Establishing a bi-directional information flow between systems biology and biomedical ontologies has the potential to enable large-scale analyses of biological systems that span levels of granularity from molecules to organisms. PMID:21835028

  9. Integrated modeling of European migration

    OpenAIRE

    Raymer, James; Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Forster, Jonathan J.; Peter W. F. Smith; Bijak, Jakub

    2013-01-01

    International migration data in Europe are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. As a result, reported data are inconsistent in availability, definition and quality. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model to overcome the limitations of the various data sources. The focus is on estimating recent international migration flows amongst 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, using data collated by Euro...

  10. Global specification and validation of embedded systems integrating heterogeneous components

    CERN Document Server

    Nicolescu, G

    2007-01-01

    Offers a deep understanding of concepts and practices behind the composition of heterogeneous componentsIntroduces a systematic approach to build an execution model for systems composed of heterogeneous componentsMixed continuous/discrete and hardware/software systems will be used to illustrate these concepts.Gives a clear vision on the theory and practice of specification and validation of complex modern systemsExamples give the designers solutions applicable in their daily practice.

  11. Research on an Integrated Enterprise Workflow Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    An integrated enterprise workflow model called PPROCE is presented firstly. Then, an enterprise's ontology established by TOVE and Process Specification Language (PSL) is studied. Combined with TOVE's partition idea, PSL is extended and new PSL Extensions is created to define the ontology of process, organization, resource and product in the PPROCE model. As a result, PPROCE model can be defined by a set of corresponding formal language. It facilitates the future work not only in the model verification, model optimization and model simulation, but also in the model translation.

  12. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  13. An Integrated Model of Outplacement Counseling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquilanti, Tara M.; Leroux, Janice

    1999-01-01

    The Aquilanti Integrated Model of Outplacement was developed from various aspects of existing grief and career theories. It comprises many practical elements that are present in the other models as well personal experience and knowledge of career counseling. It involves four phases: loss, grieving, and transition; personal development; job search;…

  14. New challenges in integrated water quality modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rode, M.; Arhonditsis, G.; Balin, D.; Kebede, T.; Krysanova, V.; Griensven, A.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

    2010-01-01

    There is an increasing pressure for development of integrated water quality models that effectively couple catchment and in-stream biogeochemical processes. This need stems from increasing legislative requirements and emerging demands related to contemporary climate and land use changes. Modelling w

  15. An Integrated Model of Outplacement Counseling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquilanti, Tara M.; Leroux, Janice

    1999-01-01

    The Aquilanti Integrated Model of Outplacement was developed from various aspects of existing grief and career theories. It comprises many practical elements that are present in the other models as well personal experience and knowledge of career counseling. It involves four phases: loss, grieving, and transition; personal development; job search;…

  16. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on the methane emissions estimated by an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, given by 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS inverse system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same set-up has been used to produce the synthetic observations and to compute flux estimates by inverse modelling, which means that only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg CH4 per year at the global scale, representing 5% of the total methane emissions. At continental and yearly scales, transport model errors have bigger impacts depending on the region, ranging from 36 Tg CH4 in north America to 7 Tg CH4 in Boreal Eurasian (from 23% to 48%. At the model gridbox scale, the spread of inverse estimates can even reach 150% of the prior flux. Thus, transport model errors contribute to significant uncertainties on the methane estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are invoked. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher resolution models. The analysis of methane estimated fluxes in these different configurations questions the consistency of transport model errors in current inverse systems. For future methane inversions, an improvement in the modelling of the atmospheric transport would make the estimations more accurate. Likewise, errors of the observation covariance matrix should be more consistently prescribed in future inversions in order to limit the impact of transport model errors on estimated methane

  17. An introduction to Space Weather Integrated Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, D.; Feng, X.

    2012-12-01

    The need for a software toolkit that integrates space weather models and data is one of many challenges we are facing with when applying the models to space weather forecasting. To meet this challenge, we have developed Space Weather Integrated Modeling (SWIM) that is capable of analysis and visualizations of the results from a diverse set of space weather models. SWIM has a modular design and is written in Python, by using NumPy, matplotlib, and the Visualization ToolKit (VTK). SWIM provides data management module to read a variety of spacecraft data products and a specific data format of Solar-Interplanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model (SIP-CESE MHD model) for the study of solar-terrestrial phenomena. Data analysis, visualization and graphic user interface modules are also presented in a user-friendly way to run the integrated models and visualize the 2-D and 3-D data sets interactively. With these tools we can locally or remotely analysis the model result rapidly, such as extraction of data on specific location in time-sequence data sets, plotting interplanetary magnetic field lines, multi-slicing of solar wind speed, volume rendering of solar wind density, animation of time-sequence data sets, comparing between model result and observational data. To speed-up the analysis, an in-situ visualization interface is used to support visualizing the data 'on-the-fly'. We also modified some critical time-consuming analysis and visualization methods with the aid of GPU and multi-core CPU. We have used this tool to visualize the data of SIP-CESE MHD model in real time, and integrated the Database Model of shock arrival, Shock Propagation Model, Dst forecasting model and SIP-CESE MHD model developed by SIGMA Weather Group at State Key Laboratory of Space Weather/CAS.

  18. Integrated earth system studies. Joint research efforts of global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKeown, R.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Schimel, D.S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)] [and others

    1995-06-01

    Analysis of changes to ecosystem C and N pools and fluxes from different natural and managed ecosystems across the continental US was conducted using the CENTURY ecosystem model. Ecosystem dynamics in responses to climate or land use changes do not immediately equilibrate to new environmental conditions. A variety of inherent properties of a biological system has built-in resistance to change in the environment. This includes pools of soil organic matter that resist changes in short-term climate signals, plant components related to ecosystem structure or biogeochemical properties. As climate changes, these pools serve as buffers against immediate changes in the biogeochemical response of the system. Our analysis indicate that certain of the managed ecosystems are more buffered to changes in the climate system than the natural systems; while others appear to be equally sensitive to these changes in rainfall and temperature.

  19. Connecting Global to Local Parameters in Barred Galaxy Models

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    N. D. Caranicolas

    2002-09-01

    We present connections between global and local parameters in a realistic dynamical model, describing motion in a barred galaxy. Expanding the global model in the vicinity of a stable Lagrange point, we find the potential of a two-dimensional perturbed harmonic oscillator, which describes local motion near the centre of the global model. The frequencies of oscillations and the coefficients of the perturbing terms are not arbitrary but are connected to the mass, the angular rotation velocity, the scale length and the strength of the galactic bar. The local energy is also connected to the global energy. A comparison of the properties of orbits in the global and local potential is also made.

  20. Macroeconomic effects of international regional economic integration: global practice and challenges for Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataliia Fedirko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the article the causes and macroeconomic peculiarities of the formation and operation of international regional economic associations of various forms have been studied. A hierarchical classification of modern international regional economic integration groups is presented. The contribution of the world’s largest integration groups to the global GDP has been analyzed. The main macroeconomic results of countries’ participation in integration associations of different forms on the pre-establishment and post-establishment stages have been described, the positive effects obtained by countries in the result of introduction of certain common economic activity conditions have been determined. Potential risks for Ukraine related to European Integration and prospective positive effects of integration into the world economy have been determined. Conceptual principles of state policy of blocking of the potential risks of international regional economic integration for Ukraine have been substantiated.

  1. Formation of an Integrated Stock Price Forecast Model in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Audrius Dzikevičius

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Technical and fundamental analyses are widely used to forecast stock prices due to lack of knowledge of other modern models and methods such as Residual Income Model, ANN-APGARCH, Support Vector Machine, Probabilistic Neural Network and Genetic Fuzzy Systems. Although stock price forecast models integrating both technical and fundamental analyses are currently used widely, their integration is not justified comprehensively enough. This paper discusses theoretical one-factor and multi-factor stock price forecast models already applied by investors at a global level and determines possibility to create and apply practically a stock price forecast model which integrates fundamental and technical analysis with the reference to the Lithuanian stock market. The research is aimed to determine the relationship between stock prices of the 14 Lithuanian companies listed in the Main List by the Nasdaq OMX Baltic and various fundamental variables. Based on correlation and regression analysis results and application of c-Squared Test, ANOVA method, a general stock price forecast model is generated. This paper discusses practical implications how the developed model can be used to forecast stock prices by individual investors and suggests additional check measures.

  2. Visualization and dissemination of global crustal models on virtual globes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Liang-feng; Pan, Xin; Sun, Jian-zhong

    2016-05-01

    Global crustal models, such as CRUST 5.1 and its descendants, are very useful in a broad range of geoscience applications. The current method for representing the existing global crustal models relies heavily on dedicated computer programs to read and work with those models. Therefore, it is not suited to visualize and disseminate global crustal information to non-geological users. This shortcoming is becoming obvious as more and more people from both academic and non-academic institutions are interested in understanding the structure and composition of the crust. There is a pressing need to provide a modern, universal and user-friendly method to represent and visualize the existing global crustal models. In this paper, we present a systematic framework to easily visualize and disseminate the global crustal structure on virtual globes. Based on crustal information exported from the existing global crustal models, we first create a variety of KML-formatted crustal models with different levels of detail (LODs). And then the KML-formatted models can be loaded into a virtual globe for 3D visualization and model dissemination. A Keyhole Markup Language (KML) generator (Crust2KML) is developed to automatically convert crustal information obtained from the CRUST 1.0 model into KML-formatted global crustal models, and a web application (VisualCrust) is designed to disseminate and visualize those models over the Internet. The presented framework and associated implementations can be conveniently exported to other applications to support visualizing and analyzing the Earth's internal structure on both regional and global scales in a 3D virtual-globe environment.

  3. PT-symmetric deformations of integrable models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fring, Andreas

    2013-04-28

    We review recent results on new physical models constructed as PT-symmetrical deformations or extensions of different types of integrable models. We present non-Hermitian versions of quantum spin chains, multi-particle systems of Calogero-Moser-Sutherland type and nonlinear integrable field equations of Korteweg-de Vries type. The quantum spin chain discussed is related to the first example in the series of the non-unitary models of minimal conformal field theories. For the Calogero-Moser-Sutherland models, we provide three alternative deformations: a complex extension for models related to all types of Coxeter/Weyl groups; models describing the evolution of poles in constrained real-valued field equations of nonlinear integrable systems; and genuine deformations based on antilinearly invariant deformed root systems. Deformations of complex nonlinear integrable field equations of Korteweg-de Vries type are studied with regard to different kinds of PT-symmetrical scenarios. A reduction to simple complex quantum mechanical models currently under discussion is presented.

  4. A System of Systems Approach to Integrating Global Sea Level Change Application Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambachus, M. J.; Foster, R. S.; Powell, C.; Cole, M.

    2005-12-01

    The global sea level change application community has numerous disparate models used to make predications over various regional and temporal scales. These models have typically been focused on limited sets of data and optimized for specific areas or questions of interest. Increasingly, decision makers at the national, international, and local/regional levels require access to these application data models and want to be able to integrate large disparate data sets, with new ubiquitous sensor data, and use these data across models from multiple sources. These requirements will force the Global Sea Level Change application community to take a new system-of-systems approach to their programs. We present a new technical architecture approach to the global sea level change program that provides external access to the vast stores of global sea level change data, provides a collaboration forum for the discussion and visualization of data, and provides a simulation environment to evaluate decisions. This architectural approach will provide the tools to support multi-disciplinary decision making. A conceptual system of systems approach is needed to address questions around the multiple approaches to tracking and predicting Sea Level Change. A systems of systems approach would include (1) a forum of data providers, modelers, and users, (2) a service oriented architecture including interoperable web services with a backbone of Grid computing capability, and (3) discovery and access functionality to the information developed through this structure. Each of these three areas would be clearly designed to maximize communication, data use for decision making and flexibility and extensibility for evolution of technology and requirements. In contemplating a system-of-systems approach, it is important to highlight common understanding and coordination as foundational to success across the multiple systems. The workflow of science in different applications is often conceptually similar

  5. Global Stability for a HIV/AIDS Model

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Cristiana J.; Torres, Delfim F. M.

    2017-01-01

    We investigate global stability properties of a HIV/AIDS population model with constant recruitment rate, mass action incidence, and variable population size. Existence and uniqueness results for disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are proved. Global stability of the equilibria is obtained through Lyapunov's direct method and LaSalle's invariance principle.

  6. Building a data sharing model for global genomic research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosseim, Patricia; Dove, Edward S; Baggaley, Carman; Meslin, Eric M; Cate, Fred H; Kaye, Jane; Harris, Jennifer R; Knoppers, Bartha M

    2014-08-11

    Data sharing models designed to facilitate global business provide insights for improving transborder genomic data sharing. We argue that a flexible, externally endorsed, multilateral arrangement, combined with an objective third-party assurance mechanism, can effectively balance privacy with the need to share genomic data globally.

  7. GLOBAL STABILITY OF AN SIRS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH DELAYS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhen Jin; Ma Zhien; Han Maoan

    2006-01-01

    In this article, an SIRS epidemic model spread by vectors (mosquitoes) which have an incubation time to become infectious is formulated. It is shown that a disease-free equilibrium point is globally stable if no endemic equilibrium point exists. Further, the endemic equilibrium point (if it exists) is globally stable with a respect "weak delay". Some known results are generalized.

  8. Integration models: multicultural and liberal approaches confronted

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janicki, Wojciech

    2012-01-01

    European societies have been shaped by their Christian past, upsurge of international migration, democratic rule and liberal tradition rooted in religious tolerance. Boosting globalization processes impose new challenges on European societies, striving to protect their diversity. This struggle is especially clearly visible in case of minorities trying to resist melting into mainstream culture. European countries' legal systems and cultural policies respond to these efforts in many ways. Respecting identity politics-driven group rights seems to be the most common approach, resulting in creation of a multicultural society. However, the outcome of respecting group rights may be remarkably contradictory to both individual rights growing out from liberal tradition, and to reinforced concept of integration of immigrants into host societies. The hereby paper discusses identity politics upturn in the context of both individual rights and integration of European societies.

  9. Regional Dynamic Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Integrated Energy Futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MALCZYNSKI, LEONARD A.; BEYELER, WALTER E.; CONRAD, STEPHEN H.; HARRIS, DAVID B; REXROTH, PAUL E.; BAKER, ARNOLD B.

    2002-11-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 12 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data from 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2001 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of ''what if'' scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.

  10. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  11. Global dust model intercomparison in AeroCom phase I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Huneeus

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Desert dust plays an important role in the climate system through its impact on Earth's radiative budget and its role in the biogeochemical cycle as a source of iron in high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll regions. A large degree of diversity exists between the many global models that simulate the dust cycle to estimate its impact on climate. We present the results of a broad intercomparison of a total of 15 global aerosol models within the AeroCom project. Each model is compared to observations focusing on variables responsible for the uncertainties in estimating the direct radiative effect and the dust impact on the biogeochemical cycle, i.e., aerosol optical depth (AOD and dust deposition. Additional comparisons to Angström Exponent (AE, coarse mode AOD and dust surface concentration are included to extend the assessment of model performance. These datasets form a benchmark data set which is proposed for model inspection and future dust model developments. In general, models perform better in simulating climatology of vertically averaged integrated parameters (AOD and AE in dusty sites than they do with total deposition and surface concentration. Almost all models overestimate deposition fluxes over Europe, the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean and ice core data. Differences among the models arise when simulating deposition at remote sites with low fluxes over the Pacific and the Southern Atlantic Ocean. This study also highlights important differences in models ability to reproduce the deposition flux over Antarctica. The cause of this discrepancy could not be identified but different dust regimes at each site and issues with data quality should be considered. Models generally simulate better surface concentration at stations downwind of the main sources than at remote ones. Likewise, they simulate better surface concentration at stations affected by Saharan dust than at stations affected by Asian dust. Most models simulate the gradient in AOD and

  12. Fire emissions simulated by prescribing burned area observations in a global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Wilkenskjeld, Stiig; Kloster, Silvia

    2014-05-01

    The emissions of trace gases and aerosols from large vegetation fires into the atmosphere have an important climate impact. In this study we integrate observed burned area into a global vegetation model to derive global fire emissions. A global continuous burned area products provided by GFED (Global Fire Emissions Dataset) were obtained from MODIS (and pre-MODIS) satellites and are available for the time period 1997-2011. We integrate the global burned area product into the global vegetation model JSBACH, a land part of the Earth-System model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. JSBACH simulates land biomass in terms of carbon, which can be combined with the satellite burned area information to derive fire carbon emissions. Some assumptions on fire fuel consumptions have to be made during the integration of satellite burned area into the JSBACH. This includes processes such as tree mortality and combustion completeness, i.e. how much of the vegetation biomass gets combusted during a fire. Partially, this information can be also obtained from measurements. In this study we follow closely the approach of GFED, incorporating also GFED supplemental information, to simulate fuel consumption in JSBACH. And we compare simulated by this approach fire carbon emissions with the fire emissions from GFED. Global vegetation models often use prescribed land cover maps. The simulated in the JSBACH vegetation biomass and thus the simulated fire carbon emissions critically depend on the land cover distribution. In our study we derive fire carbon emissions using two different land cover parameterizations, based on two different satellite datasets. We will present the results obtained from simulations using the JSBACH standard MODIS based vegetation distribution and compare them to the results derived using the recently released ESA CCI land cover satellite product to demonstrate the sensitivity of simulated fire carbon emissions to the underlying land cover

  13. Integrated Modelling - the next steps (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, R. V.

    2010-12-01

    Integrated modelling (IM) has made considerable advances over the past decade but it has not yet been taken up as an operational tool in the way that its proponents had hoped. The reasons why will be discussed in Session U17. This talk will propose topics for a research and development programme and suggest an institutional structure which, together, could overcome the present obstacles. Their combined aim would be first to make IM into an operational tool useable by competent public authorities and commercial companies and, in time, to see it evolve into the modelling equivalent of Google Maps, something accessible and useable by anyone with a PC or an iphone and an internet connection. In a recent study, a number of government agencies, water authorities and utilities applied integrated modelling to operational problems. While the project demonstrated that IM could be used in an operational setting and had benefit, it also highlighted the advances that would be required for its widespread uptake. These were: greatly improving the ease with which models could be a) made linkable, b) linked and c) run; developing a methodology for applying integrated modelling; developing practical options for calibrating and validating linked models; addressing the science issues that arise when models are linked; extending the range of modelling concepts that can be linked; enabling interface standards to pass uncertainty information; making the interface standards platform independent; extending the range of platforms to include those for high performance computing; developing the concept of modelling components as web services; separating simulation code from the model’s GUI, so that all the results from the linked models can be viewed through a single GUI; developing scenario management systems so that that there is an audit trail of the version of each model and dataset used in each linked model run. In addition to the above, there is a need to build a set of integrated

  14. Advances in Global Magnetosphere Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Maria

    2016-07-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts a set of state-of-the-art global magnetosphere models that are capable to reproduce a broad range of physical phenomena in Earth's magnetosphere. We will discuss successes and challenges in global magnetosphere modeling and the role of non-MHD effects on global dynamics.

  15. Asymptotic power of the integrated conditional moment test against global and large local alternatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ploberger, W.; Bierens, H.J.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we study further the asymptotic power properties of the integrated conditional moment (ICM) test of Bierens (1982) and Bierens and Ploberger (1994). First, we establish the relation between consistency against global alternatives and nontrivial local power, using the concept of

  16. NEW CONCEPTS IN GLOBAL TECTONICS--A Brief Introduction of the Theory of Integrated Polygenetic Geotectonics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIANG Ji-xi; WANG Dao-jin; XIANG Fan

    2002-01-01

    @@ Since 1993, the first author has expanded his research on geotectonics from China to the globle, and has put forward his own new concepts in global tectonics: Theory of Integrated Polygenetic Geotectonics. In 2001, he and his coworkers published their works: two maps and a detailed explanatory note by Geological Publishing House of China.

  17. NEW CONCEPTS IN GLOBAL TECTONICS--A Brief Introduction of the Theory of Integrated Polygenetic Geotectonics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIANG; Ji-xi; WANG; Dao-jin; XIANG; Fan

    2002-01-01

    Since 1993, the first author has expanded his research on geotectonics from China to the globle, and has put forward his own new concepts in global tectonics: Theory of Integrated Polygenetic Geotectonics. In 2001, he and his coworkers published their works: two maps and a detailed explanatory note by Geological Publishing House of China.……

  18. Characterization, global analysis and integrability of a family of Poisson structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez-Bermejo, Benito [Departamento de Matematica Aplicada, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Calle Tulipan S/N, 28933-Mostoles, Madrid (Spain)], E-mail: benito.hernandez@urjc.es

    2008-02-11

    An n-dimensional solution family of the Jacobi equations is characterized and investigated, including the global determination of its main features: the Casimir invariants, the construction of the Darboux canonical form and the proof of integrability for the related Poisson systems. Examples are given and include novel Poisson formulations.

  19. Web Services-Enhanced Agile Modeling and Integrating Business Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Belouadha, Fatima-Zahra; Roudiès, Ounsa

    2012-01-01

    In a global business context with continuous changes, the enterprises have to enhance their operational efficiency, to react more quickly, to ensure the flexibility of their business processes, and to build new collaboration pathways with external partners. To achieve this goal, they must use e-business methods, mechanisms and techniques while capitalizing on the potential of new information and communication technologies. In this context, we propose a standards, model and Web services-based approach for modeling and integrating agile enterprise business processes. The purpose is to benefit from Web services characteristics to enhance the processes design and realize their dynamic integration. The choice of focusing on Web services is essentially justified by their broad adoption by enterprises as well as their capability to warranty interoperability between both intra and inter-enterprises systems. Thereby, we propose in this chapter a metamodel for describing business processes, and discuss their dynamic in...

  20. Height-integrated conductivity in auroral substorms - 2. Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerløv, Jesper Wittendorff; Hoffman, R.A.

    2000-01-01

    Calculations of height-integrated conductivity from 31 individual Dynamics Explorer (DE 2) substorm crossings presented by Gjerloev and Hoffman [this issue] are used to compile empirical models of the height-integrated Pedersen and Hall conductivities (conductances) in a bulge-type auroral substorm....... Global auroral images obtained by Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE 1) were used to select substorms displaying a typical bulge-type emission pattern and each individual DE 2 pass was positioned with respect to key features in the observed emission pattern. The conductances were calculated for each DE 2 pass using...... electron precipitation data and a monoenergetic conductance model. All passes were divided into six different sectors, and average conductance profiles were carefully deduced for each of these sectors. Using a simple boxcar filter, smoothed average sector passes were calculated and from linear...

  1. Towards a Realistic, Data-Driven Thermodynamic MHD Model of the Global Solar Corona

    CERN Document Server

    Downs, Cooper; van der Holst, Bart; Lugaz, Noé; Sokolov, Igor V; Gombosi, Tamas I

    2009-01-01

    In this work we describe our implementation of a thermodynamic energy equation into the global corona model of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and its development into the new Lower Corona (LC) model. This work includes the integration of the additional energy transport terms of coronal heating, electron heat conduction, and optically thin radiative cooling into the governing magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) energy equation. We examine two different boundary conditions using this model; one set in the upper transition region (the Radiative Energy Balance model), as well as a uniform chromospheric condition where the transition region can be modeled in its entirety. Via observation synthesis from model results and the subsequent comparison to full sun extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-Ray observations of Carrington Rotation (CR) 1913 centered on Aug 27, 1996, we demonstrate the need for these additional considerations when using global MHD models to describe the unique conditions in the low corona. Th...

  2. Global Regularity for Several Incompressible Fluid Models with Partial Dissipation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiahong; Xu, Xiaojing; Ye, Zhuan

    2017-09-01

    This paper examines the global regularity problem on several 2D incompressible fluid models with partial dissipation. They are the surface quasi-geostrophic (SQG) equation, the 2D Euler equation and the 2D Boussinesq equations. These are well-known models in fluid mechanics and geophysics. The fundamental issue of whether or not they are globally well-posed has attracted enormous attention. The corresponding models with partial dissipation may arise in physical circumstances when the dissipation varies in different directions. We show that the SQG equation with either horizontal or vertical dissipation always has global solutions. This is in sharp contrast with the inviscid SQG equation for which the global regularity problem remains outstandingly open. Although the 2D Euler is globally well-posed for sufficiently smooth data, the associated equations with partial dissipation no longer conserve the vorticity and the global regularity is not trivial. We are able to prove the global regularity for two partially dissipated Euler equations. Several global bounds are also obtained for a partially dissipated Boussinesq system.

  3. Global Regularity for Several Incompressible Fluid Models with Partial Dissipation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jiahong; Xu, Xiaojing; Ye, Zhuan

    2016-09-01

    This paper examines the global regularity problem on several 2D incompressible fluid models with partial dissipation. They are the surface quasi-geostrophic (SQG) equation, the 2D Euler equation and the 2D Boussinesq equations. These are well-known models in fluid mechanics and geophysics. The fundamental issue of whether or not they are globally well-posed has attracted enormous attention. The corresponding models with partial dissipation may arise in physical circumstances when the dissipation varies in different directions. We show that the SQG equation with either horizontal or vertical dissipation always has global solutions. This is in sharp contrast with the inviscid SQG equation for which the global regularity problem remains outstandingly open. Although the 2D Euler is globally well-posed for sufficiently smooth data, the associated equations with partial dissipation no longer conserve the vorticity and the global regularity is not trivial. We are able to prove the global regularity for two partially dissipated Euler equations. Several global bounds are also obtained for a partially dissipated Boussinesq system.

  4. Integrable Deformations of T -Dual σ Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsato, Riccardo; Wulff, Linus

    2016-12-01

    We present a method to deform (generically non-Abelian) T duals of two-dimensional σ models, which preserves classical integrability. The deformed models are identified by a linear operator ω on the dualized subalgebra, which satisfies the 2-cocycle condition. We prove that the so-called homogeneous Yang-Baxter deformations are equivalent, via a field redefinition, to our deformed models when ω is invertible. We explain the details for deformations of T duals of principal chiral models, and present the corresponding generalization to the case of supercoset models.

  5. The Global Classroom Video Conferencing Model and First Evaluations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weitze, Charlotte Lærke; Ørngreen, Rikke; Levinsen, Karin

    2013-01-01

    pedagogical innovativeness, including collaborative and technological issues. The research is based on the Global Classroom Model as it is implemented and used at an adult learning center in Denmark (VUC Storstrøm). VUC Storstrøms (VUC) Global Classroom Model is an approach to video conferencing and e...... are present on campus in the classroom, while other students are participating simultaneously from their home using laptops. Although the Global Classroom Model is pedagogically flexible, the students are required to attend according to regulations from the Ministry of Children and Education to pass....... All these matters need to be taken into consideration when implementing the Global Classroom Model. Through the start-up period of a PhD study and through a research-based competence development project with senior researchers, we have gained knowledge about the experiences, challenges, and potentials...

  6. GLOBAL ATTRACTIVITY IN A PERIODIC DELAY SINGLE SPECIES MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, we establish the existence of a positive periodic solution for a periodic delay single species population growth model, and obtain sufficient conditions for the periodic solution to be globally attractive.

  7. ON GLOBAL STABILITY OF A NONRESIDENT COMPUTER VIRUS MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yoshiaki MUROYA; Huaixing LI; Toshikazu KUNIYA

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we establish new sufficient conditions for the infected equilibrium of a nonresident computer virus model to be globally asymptotically stable. Our results extend two kind of known results in recent literature.

  8. Hybrid and adaptive meta-model-based global optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, J.; Li, G. Y.; Dong, Z.

    2012-01-01

    As an efficient and robust technique for global optimization, meta-model-based search methods have been increasingly used in solving complex and computation intensive design optimization problems. In this work, a hybrid and adaptive meta-model-based global optimization method that can automatically select appropriate meta-modelling techniques during the search process to improve search efficiency is introduced. The search initially applies three representative meta-models concurrently. Progress towards a better performing model is then introduced by selecting sample data points adaptively according to the calculated values of the three meta-models to improve modelling accuracy and search efficiency. To demonstrate the superior performance of the new algorithm over existing search methods, the new method is tested using various benchmark global optimization problems and applied to a real industrial design optimization example involving vehicle crash simulation. The method is particularly suitable for design problems involving computation intensive, black-box analyses and simulations.

  9. Advancements in the global modelling of coastal flood hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Verlaan, Martin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Ward, Philip J.

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges and high tides can cause catastrophic floods. Due to climate change and socio-economic development the potential impacts of coastal floods are increasing globally. Global modelling of coastal flood hazard provides an important perspective to quantify and effectively manage this challenge. In this contribution we show two recent advancements in global modelling of coastal flood hazard: 1) a new improved global dataset of extreme sea levels, and 2) an improved vertical datum for extreme sea levels. Both developments have important implications for estimates of exposure and inundation modelling. For over a decade, the only global dataset of extreme sea levels was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL), which uses a static approximation to estimate total water levels for different return periods. Recent advances have enabled the development of a new dynamically derived dataset: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here we present a comparison of the DCESL and GTSR extreme sea levels and the resulting global flood exposure for present-day conditions. While DCESL generally overestimates extremes, GTSR underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. This results in differences in estimates of flood exposure. When using the 1 in 100-year GTSR extremes, the exposed global population is 28% lower than when using the 1 in 100-year DCESL extremes. Previous studies at continental to global-scales have not accounted for the fact that GTSR and DCESL are referenced to mean sea level, whereas global elevation datasets, such as SRTM, are referenced to the EGM96 geoid. We propose a methodology to correct for the difference in vertical datum and demonstrate that this also has a large effect on exposure. For GTSR, the vertical datum correction results in a 60% increase in global exposure.

  10. Estimating numerical errors due to operator splitting in global atmospheric chemistry models: Transport and chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillana, Mauricio; Zhang, Lin; Yantosca, Robert

    2016-01-01

    We present upper bounds for the numerical errors introduced when using operator splitting methods to integrate transport and non-linear chemistry processes in global chemical transport models (CTM). We show that (a) operator splitting strategies that evaluate the stiff non-linear chemistry operator at the end of the time step are more accurate, and (b) the results of numerical simulations that use different operator splitting strategies differ by at most 10%, in a prototype one-dimensional non-linear chemistry-transport model. We find similar upper bounds in operator splitting numerical errors in global CTM simulations.

  11. Using the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this manual is to enable users of the Global Forest Products Model to: • Install and run the GFPM software • Understand the input data • Change the input data to explore different scenarios • Interpret the output The GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products (Buongiorno et al. 2003). The GFPM2012 has data...

  12. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EDENBURN,MICHAEL W.; BUNTING,MARCUS; PAYNE JR.,ARTHUR C.; TROST,LAWRENCE C.

    2000-03-02

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0.

  13. CTBT integrated verification system evaluation model supplement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EDENBURN,MICHAEL W.; BUNTING,MARCUS; PAYNE JR.,ARTHUR C.; TROST,LAWRENCE C.

    2000-03-02

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's unique features is that it integrates results from the various CTBT sensor technologies (seismic, in sound, radionuclide, and hydroacoustic) and allows the user to investigate synergy among the technologies. Specifically, IVSEM estimates the detection effectiveness (probability of detection), location accuracy, and identification capability of the integrated system and of each technology subsystem individually. The model attempts to accurately estimate the monitoring system's performance at medium interfaces (air-land, air-water) and for some evasive testing methods such as seismic decoupling. The original IVSEM report, CTBT Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model, SAND97-25 18, described version 1.2 of IVSEM. This report describes the changes made to IVSEM version 1.2 and the addition of identification capability estimates that have been incorporated into IVSEM version 2.0.

  14. Data and Model Integration Promoting Interdisciplinarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koike, T.

    2014-12-01

    It is very difficult to reflect accumulated subsystem knowledge into holistic knowledge. Knowledge about a whole system can rarely be introduced into a targeted subsystem. In many cases, knowledge in one discipline is inapplicable to other disciplines. We are far from resolving cross-disciplinary issues. It is critically important to establish interdisciplinarity so that scientific knowledge can transcend disciplines. We need to share information and develop knowledge interlinkages by building models and exchanging tools. We need to tackle a large increase in the volume and diversity of data from observing the Earth. The volume of data stored has exponentially increased. Previously, almost all of the large-volume data came from satellites, but model outputs occupy the largest volume in general. To address the large diversity of data, we should develop an ontology system for technical and geographical terms in coupling with a metadata design according to international standards. In collaboration between Earth environment scientists and IT group, we should accelerate data archiving by including data loading, quality checking and metadata registration, and enrich data-searching capability. DIAS also enables us to perform integrated research and realize interdisciplinarity. For example, climate change should be addressed in collaboration between the climate models, integrated assessment models including energy, economy, agriculture, health, and the models of adaptation, vulnerability, and human settlement and infrastructure. These models identify water as central to these systems. If a water expert can develop an interrelated system including each component, the integrated crisis can be addressed by collaboration with various disciplines. To realize this purpose, we are developing a water-related data- and model-integration system called a water cycle integrator (WCI).

  15. Renewed mer model of integral management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janko Belak

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The research work on entrepreneurship, enterprise's policy and management, which started in 1992, successfully continued in the following years. Between 1992 and 2011, more than 400 academics and other researchers have participated in research work (MER research program whose main orientation has been the creation of their own model of integral management. Results: In past years, academics (researchers and authors of published papers from Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Byelorussia, Canada, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the US have cooperated in MER programs, coming from more than fifty institutions. Thus, scientific doctrines of different universities influenced the development of the MER model which is based on both horizontal and vertical integration of the enterprises' governance and management processes, instruments and institutions into a consistently operating unit. Conclusions: The presented MER model is based on the multi-layer integration of governance and management with an enterprise and its environment, considering the fundamental desires for the enterprises' existence and, thus, their quantitative as well as qualitative changes. The process, instrumental, and institutional integrity of the governance and management is also the initial condition for the implementation of all other integration factors.

  16. Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

    2016-04-01

    Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

  17. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  18. The integrated Earth System Model Version 1: formulation and functionality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, William D.; Craig, Anthony P.; Truesdale, John E.; Di Vittorio, Alan; Jones, Andrew D.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Kim, Son H.; Thomson, Allison M.; Patel, Pralit L.; Zhou, Yuyu; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E.; Chini, Louise M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-07-23

    The integrated Earth System Model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for pro- jecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) and an Earth System Model (ESM) into a common modeling in- frastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species, land use and land cover change, and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. The iESM project integrates the economic and human dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a sin- gle simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore- omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific under- standing of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper de- scribes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.

  19. Integrated cumulus ensemble and turbulence (ICET): An integrated parameterization system for general circulation models (GCMs)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.L.; Frank, W.M.; Young, G.S. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Successful simulations of the global circulation and climate require accurate representation of the properties of shallow and deep convective clouds, stable-layer clouds, and the interactions between various cloud types, the boundary layer, and the radiative fluxes. Each of these phenomena play an important role in the global energy balance, and each must be parameterized in a global climate model. These processes are highly interactive. One major problem limiting the accuracy of parameterizations of clouds and other processes in general circulation models (GCMs) is that most of the parameterization packages are not linked with a common physical basis. Further, these schemes have not, in general, been rigorously verified against observations adequate to the task of resolving subgrid-scale effects. To address these problems, we are designing a new Integrated Cumulus Ensemble and Turbulence (ICET) parameterization scheme, installing it in a climate model (CCM2), and evaluating the performance of the new scheme using data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) sites.

  20. A fully-implicit model of the global ocean circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijer, Wilbert; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Öksüzoğlu, Hakan; Wubs, Fred W.; Niet, Arie C. de

    2003-01-01

    With the recent developments in the solution methods for large-dimensional nonlinear algebraic systems, fully-implicit ocean circulation models are now becoming feasible. In this paper, the formulation of such a three-dimensional global ocean model is presented. With this implicit model, the

  1. Integration and disintegration processes of ethnic communities in a globalized world: challenges and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Paronikian

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the challenges and trends in integration and disintegration processes of ethnic communities in the world of globalization. Established that ethnic disintegration is inevitable consequence of ethnic integration, and its intensity depends on what method is carried Integration: voluntary or forced. What is important is the fact that in the era of globalization integration and disintegration processes of ethnic communities that are inherent in the very essence of ethnicity, greatly amplified. It was found that entering to the cultural field of ethnic communities of other ethnic entities, penalized sustainable ethnic balance, contributes to the phenomenon of «rejection of other» causes of ethnic conflict and the consequent threat of disintegration of ethnic communities. Disintegration often leads to weakening of the linkages and interactions between components of the integrated system in a multi-ethnic society. However, the author concludes that the process of disintegration cannot be regarded as unambiguously negative because, on the one hand, it contributes to the weakening and decline; and sometimes division of multi-ethnic countries, but on the other hand - it contributes to the birth of the new and revival of the old nation-states, which is particularly important in conditions of transformation of the global community towards the post-industrial and information epoch in the future. In general, the integration and disintegration change each other depending on global processes and their transformations. Therefore, in the era of globalization’s challenges it is important is the effective management of these processes to prevent adverse effects.

  2. Integrative modelling reveals mechanisms linking productivity and plant species richness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, James B; Anderson, T Michael; Seabloom, Eric W; Borer, Elizabeth T; Adler, Peter B; Harpole, W Stanley; Hautier, Yann; Hillebrand, Helmut; Lind, Eric M; Pärtel, Meelis; Bakker, Jonathan D; Buckley, Yvonne M; Crawley, Michael J; Damschen, Ellen I; Davies, Kendi F; Fay, Philip A; Firn, Jennifer; Gruner, Daniel S; Hector, Andy; Knops, Johannes M H; MacDougall, Andrew S; Melbourne, Brett A; Morgan, John W; Orrock, John L; Prober, Suzanne M; Smith, Melinda D

    2016-01-21

    How ecosystem productivity and species richness are interrelated is one of the most debated subjects in the history of ecology. Decades of intensive study have yet to discern the actual mechanisms behind observed global patterns. Here, by integrating the predictions from multiple theories into a single model and using data from 1,126 grassland plots spanning five continents, we detect the clear signals of numerous underlying mechanisms linking productivity and richness. We find that an integrative model has substantially higher explanatory power than traditional bivariate analyses. In addition, the specific results unveil several surprising findings that conflict with classical models. These include the isolation of a strong and consistent enhancement of productivity by richness, an effect in striking contrast with superficial data patterns. Also revealed is a consistent importance of competition across the full range of productivity values, in direct conflict with some (but not all) proposed models. The promotion of local richness by macroecological gradients in climatic favourability, generally seen as a competing hypothesis, is also found to be important in our analysis. The results demonstrate that an integrative modelling approach leads to a major advance in our ability to discern the underlying processes operating in ecological systems.

  3. Quiver gauge theories and integrable lattice models

    CERN Document Server

    Yagi, Junya

    2015-01-01

    We discuss connections between certain classes of supersymmetric quiver gauge theories and integrable lattice models from the point of view of topological quantum field theories (TQFTs). The relevant classes include 4d $\\mathcal{N} = 1$ theories known as brane box and brane tilling models, 3d $\\mathcal{N} = 2$ and 2d $\\mathcal{N} = (2,2)$ theories obtained from them by compactification, and 2d $\\mathcal{N} = (0,2)$ theories closely related to these theories. We argue that their supersymmetric indices carry structures of TQFTs equipped with line operators, and as a consequence, are equal to the partition functions of lattice models. The integrability of these models follows from the existence of extra dimension in the TQFTs, which emerges after the theories are embedded in M-theory. The Yang-Baxter equation expresses the invariance of supersymmetric indices under Seiberg duality and its lower-dimensional analogs.

  4. Towards an integrated model of international migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas S. MASSEY

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Demographers have yet to develop a suitable integrated model of international migration and consequently have been very poor at forecasting immigration. This paper outlines the basic elements of an integrated model and surveys recent history to suggest the key challenges to model construction. A comprehensive theory must explain the structural forces that create a supply of people prone to migrate internationally, the structural origins of labour demand in receiving countries, the motivations of those who respond to these forces by choosing to migrate internationally, the growth and structure of transnational networks that arise to support international movement, the behaviour states in response to immigrant flows, and the influence of state actions on the behaviour of migrants. Recent history suggests that a good model needs to respect the salience of markets, recognize the circularity of migrant flows, appreciate the power of feedback effects, and be alert unanticipated consequences of policy actions.

  5. Quiver gauge theories and integrable lattice models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yagi, Junya [International School for Advanced Studies (SISSA),via Bonomea 265, 34136 Trieste (Italy); INFN - Sezione di Trieste,via Valerio 2, 34149 Trieste (Italy)

    2015-10-09

    We discuss connections between certain classes of supersymmetric quiver gauge theories and integrable lattice models from the point of view of topological quantum field theories (TQFTs). The relevant classes include 4d N=1 theories known as brane box and brane tilling models, 3d N=2 and 2d N=(2,2) theories obtained from them by compactification, and 2d N=(0,2) theories closely related to these theories. We argue that their supersymmetric indices carry structures of TQFTs equipped with line operators, and as a consequence, are equal to the partition functions of lattice models. The integrability of these models follows from the existence of extra dimension in the TQFTs, which emerges after the theories are embedded in M-theory. The Yang-Baxter equation expresses the invariance of supersymmetric indices under Seiberg duality and its lower-dimensional analogs.

  6. Integrated modelling of two xenobiotic organic compounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindblom, Erik Ulfson; Gernaey, K.V.; Henze, Mogens

    2006-01-01

    compounds, is carried out. Sorption and specific biological degradation processes are integrated with standardised water process models to model the fate of both compounds. Simulated mass flows of the two compounds during one dry weather day and one wet weather day are compared for realistic influent flow...... rate and concentration profiles. The wet weather day induces resuspension of stored sediments, which increases the pollutant load on the downstream system. The potential of the model to elucidate important phenomena related to origin and fate of the model compounds is demonstrated....

  7. Integration of Dynamic Models in Range Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardina, Jorge; Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

    2004-01-01

    This work addresses the various model interactions in real-time to make an efficient internet based decision making tool for Shuttle launch. The decision making tool depends on the launch commit criteria coupled with physical models. Dynamic interaction between a wide variety of simulation applications and techniques, embedded algorithms, and data visualizations are needed to exploit the full potential of modeling and simulation. This paper also discusses in depth details of web based 3-D graphics and applications to range safety. The advantages of this dynamic model integration are secure accessibility and distribution of real time information to other NASA centers.

  8. Climatology of the HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model - Sea ice general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Legutke, S. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1999-12-01

    The HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) climatology, obtained in a long-term forced integration is described. HOPE-G is a primitive-equation z-level ocean model which contains a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. It is formulated on a 2.8 grid with increased resolution in low latitudes in order to better resolve equatorial dynamics. The vertical resolution is 20 layers. The purpose of the integration was both to investigate the models ability to reproduce the observed general circulation of the world ocean and to obtain an initial state for coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea-ice climate simulations. The model was driven with daily mean data of a 15-year integration of the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM4, the atmospheric component in later coupled runs. Thereby, a maximum of the flux variability that is expected to appear in coupled simulations is included already in the ocean spin-up experiment described here. The model was run for more than 2000 years until a quasi-steady state was achieved. It reproduces the major current systems and the main features of the so-called conveyor belt circulation. The observed distribution of water masses is reproduced reasonably well, although with a saline bias in the intermediate water masses and a warm bias in the deep and bottom water of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The model underestimates the meridional transport of heat in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated heat transport in the other basins, though, is in good agreement with observations. (orig.)

  9. Climatology of the HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model - Sea ice general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Legutke, S. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Maier-Reimer, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1999-12-01

    The HOPE-G global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) climatology, obtained in a long-term forced integration is described. HOPE-G is a primitive-equation z-level ocean model which contains a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model. It is formulated on a 2.8 grid with increased resolution in low latitudes in order to better resolve equatorial dynamics. The vertical resolution is 20 layers. The purpose of the integration was both to investigate the models ability to reproduce the observed general circulation of the world ocean and to obtain an initial state for coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea-ice climate simulations. The model was driven with daily mean data of a 15-year integration of the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM4, the atmospheric component in later coupled runs. Thereby, a maximum of the flux variability that is expected to appear in coupled simulations is included already in the ocean spin-up experiment described here. The model was run for more than 2000 years until a quasi-steady state was achieved. It reproduces the major current systems and the main features of the so-called conveyor belt circulation. The observed distribution of water masses is reproduced reasonably well, although with a saline bias in the intermediate water masses and a warm bias in the deep and bottom water of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The model underestimates the meridional transport of heat in the Atlantic Ocean. The simulated heat transport in the other basins, though, is in good agreement with observations. (orig.)

  10. Fingernail Injuries and NASA's Integrated Medical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Butler, Doug

    2008-01-01

    The goal of space medicine is to optimize both crew health and performance. Currently, expert opinion is primarily relied upon for decision-making regarding medical equipment and supplies flown in space. Evidence-based decisions are preferred due to mass and volume limitations and the expense of space flight. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is an attempt to move us in that direction!

  11. Integrated Model of Bioenergy and Agriculture System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigurjonsson, Hafthor Ægir; Elmegaard, Brian; Clausen, Lasse Røngaard

    2015-01-01

    approach that builds on Life Cycle Inventory and carries out Life Cycle Impact Assessment for a con- sequential Life Cycle Assessment on integrated bioenergy and agriculture systems. The model framework is built in Python which connects various freely available soft- ware that handle different aspects...

  12. Rethinking School Bullying: Towards an Integrated Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Roz; Smith, Peter K.

    2011-01-01

    What would make anti-bullying initiatives more successful? This book offers a new approach to the problem of school bullying. The question of what constitutes a useful theory of bullying is considered and suggestions are made as to how priorities for future research might be identified. The integrated, systemic model of school bullying introduced…

  13. Systems biology and integrative physiological modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hester, Robert L; Iliescu, Radu; Summers, Richard; Coleman, Thomas G

    2011-03-01

    Over the last 10 years, 'Systems Biology' has focused on the integration of biology and medicine with information technology and computation. The current challenge is to use the discoveries of the last 20 years, such as genomics and proteomics, to develop targeted therapeutical strategies. These strategies are the result of understanding the aetiologies of complex diseases. Scientists predict the data will make personalized medicine rapidly available. However, the data need to be considered as a highly complex system comprising multiple inputs and feedback mechanisms. Translational medicine requires the functional and conceptual linkage of genetics to proteins, proteins to cells, cells to organs, organs to systems and systems to the organism. To help understand the complex integration of these systems, a mathematical model of the entire human body, which accurately links the functioning of all organs and systems together, could provide a framework for the development and testing of new hypotheses that will be important in clinical outcomes. There are several efforts to develop a 'Human Physiome', with the strengths and weaknesses of each being presented here. The development of a 'Human Model', with verification, documentation and validation of the underlying and integrative responses, is essential to provide a usable environment. Future development of a 'Human Model' requires integrative physiologists working in collaboration with other scientists, who have expertise in all areas of human biology, to develop the most accurate and usable human model.

  14. Accurate Electromagnetic Modeling Methods for Integrated Circuits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheng, Z.

    2010-01-01

    The present development of modern integrated circuits (IC’s) is characterized by a number of critical factors that make their design and verification considerably more difficult than before. This dissertation addresses the important questions of modeling all electromagnetic behavior of features on t

  15. Psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy: toward an integrative model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karasu, T B

    1982-09-01

    The author reviews historical trends, hypotheses, and problems in the application of pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy and uses research findings to develop an integrative model. He portrays a chronology of models over three decades; an "additive" relationship represents the decade of 1970 to 1980. He presents factors that must be considered in determining the effects of pharmacotherapy plus psychotherapy and recommends refinement of these variables in future research.

  16. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  17. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Fourth year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  18. OpenMP Programming for a Global Inverse Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Wang

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of our investigation is to establish robust inverse algorithms to convert GRACE gravity and ICESat altimetry mission data into global current and past surface mass variations. To assess separation of global sources of change and to evaluate spatio-temporal resolution and accuracy statistically from full posterior covariance matrices, a high performance version of a global simultaneous grid inverse algorithm is essential. One means to accomplish this is to implement a general, well-optimized, parallel global model on massively parallel supercomputers. In our present work, an efficient parallel version of a global inverse program has been implemented on the Origin 2000 using the OpenMP programming model. In this paper, porting a sequential global code to a shared-memory computing system is discussed; several efficient strategies to optimize the code are reported; well-optimized scientific libraries are used; detailed parallel implementation of the global model is reported; performance data of the code are analyzed. Scaling performance on a shared-memory system is also discussed. The parallel version software gives good speedup and dramatically reduces total data processing time.

  19. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laniak, Gerard F.; Olchin, Gabriel; Goodall, Jonathan; Voinov, Alexey; Hill, Mary; Glynn, Pierre; Whelan, Gene; Geller, Gary; Quinn, Nigel; Blind, Michiel; Peckham, Scott; Reaney, Sim; Gaber, Noha; Kennedy, Philip R.; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and

  20. GEM-AQ/EC, an on-line global multi-scale chemical weather modelling system: model development and evaluation of global aerosol climatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Gong

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A global air quality modeling system GEM-AQ/EC was developed by implementing tropospheric chemistry and aerosol processes on-line into the Global Environmental Multiscale weather prediction model – GEM. Due to the multi-scale features of the GEM, the integrated model, GEM-AQ/EC, is able to investigate chemical weather at scales from global to urban domains. The current chemical mechanism is comprised of 50 gas-phase species, 116 chemical and 19 photolysis reactions, and is complemented by a sectional aerosol module CAM (The Canadian Aerosol Module with 5 aerosols types: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea-salt and soil dust. Monthly emission inventories of black carbon and organic carbon from boreal and temperate vegetation fires were assembled using the most reliable areas burned datasets by countries, from statistical databases and derived from remote sensing products of 1995–2004. The model was run for ten years from from 1995–2004 with re-analyzed meteorology on a global uniform 1° × 1° horizontal resolution domain and 28 hybrid levels extending up to 10 hPa. The simulating results were compared with various observations including surface network around the globe and satellite data. Regional features of global aerosols are reasonably captured including emission, surface concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For various types of aerosols, satisfactory correlations were achieved between modeled and observed with some degree of systematic bias possibly due to large uncertainties in the emissions used in this study. A global distribution of natural aerosol contributions to the total aerosols is obtained and compared with observations.

  1. GEM-AQ/EC, an on-line global multiscale chemical weather modelling system: model development and evaluations of global aerosol climatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. L. Gong

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A global air quality modeling system GEM-AQ/EC was developed by implementing tropospheric chemistry and aerosol processes on-line into the Global Environmental Multiscale weather prediction model – GEM. Due to the multi-scale features of the GEM, the integrated model, GEM-AQ/EC, is able to investigate chemical weather at scales from global to urban domains. The current chemical mechanism is comprised of 50 gas-phase species, 116 chemical and 19 photolysis reactions, and is complemented by a sectional aerosol module CAM (The Canadian Aerosol Module with 5 aerosols types: sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea-salt and soil dust. Monthly emission inventories of black carbon and organic carbon from boreal and temperate vegetation fires were assembled using the most reliable areas burned datasets by countries, from statistical databases and derived from remote sensing products of 1995–2004. The model was run for ten years from from 1995–2004 with re-analyzed meteorology on a global uniform 1 × 1° horizontal resolution domain and 28 hybrid levels extending up to 10 hPa. The simulating results were compared with various observations including surface network around the globe and satellite data. Regional features of global aerosols are reasonably captured including emission, surface concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For various types of aerosols, satisfactory correlations were achieved between modeled and observed with some degree of systematic bias possibly due to large uncertainties in the emissions used in this study. A global distribution of natural aerosol contributions to the total aerosols is obtained and compared with observations.

  2. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    OpenAIRE

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J.

    2006-01-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quant...

  3. Quasi-hydrostatic Primitive Equations for Ocean Global Circulation Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Carine LUCAS; Madalina PETCU; Antoine ROUSSEAU

    2010-01-01

    Global existence of weak and strong solutions to the quasi-hydrostatic primitive equations is studied in this paper.This model,that derives from the full non-hydrostatic model for geophysical fluid dynamics in the zero-limit of the aspect ratio,is more realistic than the classical hydrostatic model,since the traditional approximation that consists in neglecting a part of the Coriolis force is relaxed.After justifying the derivation of the model,the authors provide a rigorous proof of global existence of weak solutions,and well-posedness for strong solutions in dimension three.

  4. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    OpenAIRE

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simula...

  5. Integrable extended van der Waals model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giglio, Francesco; Landolfi, Giulio; Moro, Antonio

    2016-10-01

    Inspired by the recent developments in the study of the thermodynamics of van der Waals fluids via the theory of nonlinear conservation laws and the description of phase transitions in terms of classical (dissipative) shock waves, we propose a novel approach to the construction of multi-parameter generalisations of the van der Waals model. The theory of integrable nonlinear conservation laws still represents the inspiring framework. Starting from a macroscopic approach, a four parameter family of integrable extended van der Waals models is indeed constructed in such a way that the equation of state is a solution to an integrable nonlinear conservation law linearisable by a Cole-Hopf transformation. This family is further specified by the request that, in regime of high temperature, far from the critical region, the extended model reproduces asymptotically the standard van der Waals equation of state. We provide a detailed comparison of our extended model with two notable empirical models such as Peng-Robinson and Soave's modification of the Redlich-Kwong equations of state. We show that our extended van der Waals equation of state is compatible with both empirical models for a suitable choice of the free parameters and can be viewed as a master interpolating equation. The present approach also suggests that further generalisations can be obtained by including the class of dispersive and viscous-dispersive nonlinear conservation laws and could lead to a new type of thermodynamic phase transitions associated to nonclassical and dispersive shock waves.

  6. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  7. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  8. Misaligned Image Integration With Local Linear Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Tatsuya; Matsuoka, Ryo; Shirai, Keiichiro; Okuda, Masahiro

    2016-05-01

    We present a new image integration technique for a flash and long-exposure image pair to capture a dark scene without incurring blurring or noisy artifacts. Most existing methods require well-aligned images for the integration, which is often a burdensome restriction in practical use. We address this issue by locally transferring the colors of the flash images using a small fraction of the corresponding pixels in the long-exposure images. We formulate the image integration as a convex optimization problem with the local linear model. The proposed method makes it possible to integrate the color of the long-exposure image with the detail of the flash image without causing any harmful effects to its contrast, where we do not need perfect alignment between the images by virtue of our new integration principle. We show that our method successfully outperforms the state of the art in the image integration and reference-based color transfer for challenging misaligned data sets.

  9. Global Models for Embedded, Accreting Protostellar Disks

    CERN Document Server

    Kratter, Kaitlin M; Krumholz, Mark R

    2007-01-01

    Most analytic work to date on protostellar disks has focused on disks in isolation from their environments. However, observations are now beginning to probe the earliest, most embedded phases of star formation, during which disks are rapidly accreting from their parent cores and cannot be modeled in isolation. We present a simple, one-zone model of protostellar accretion disks with high mass infall rates. Our model combines a self-consistent calculation of disk temperatures with an approximate treatment of angular momentum transport via several mechanisms. We use this model to survey the properties of protostellar disks across a wide range of stellar masses and evolutionary times, and make predictions for disks' masses, sizes, spiral structure, and fragmentation that will be directly testable by future large-scale surveys of deeply embedded disks. We define a dimensionless accretion-rotation parameter which, in conjunction with the disk's temperature, controls the disk evolution. We track the dominant mode of...

  10. Design of a new dynamical core for global atmospheric models based on some efficient numerical methods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Bin; WAN Hui; JI Zhongzhen; ZHANG Xin; YU Rucong; YU Yongqiang; LIU Hongtao

    2004-01-01

    A careful study on the integral properties of the primitive hydrostatic balance equations for baroclinic atmosphere is carried out, and a new scheme todesign the global adiabatic model of atmospheric dynamics ispresented. This scheme includes a method of weighted equal-areamesh and a fully discrete finite difference method with quadraticand linear conservations for solving the primitive equationsystem. Using this scheme, we established a new dynamical corewith adjustable high resolution acceptable to the availablecomputer capability, which can be very stable without anyfiltering and smoothing. Especially, some important integralproperties are kept unchanged, such as the anti-symmetries of thehorizontal advection operators and the vertical convectionoperator, the mass conservation, the effective energy conservationunder the standard stratification approximation, and so on. Somenumerical tests on the new dynamical core, respectively regardingits global conservations and its integrated performances inclimatic modeling, incorporated with the physical packagesfrom the Community Atmospheric Model Version 2 (CAM2) of NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), are included.

  11. Ecological consequences of global bifurcations in some food chain models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Voorn, George A K; Kooi, Bob W; Boer, Martin P

    2010-08-01

    Food chain models of ordinary differential equations (ode's) are often used in ecology to gain insight in the dynamics of populations of species, and the interactions of these species with each other and their environment. One powerful analysis technique is bifurcation analysis, focusing on the changes in long-term (asymptotic) behaviour under parameter variation. For the detection of local bifurcations there exists standardised software, but until quite recently most software did not include any capabilities for the detection and continuation of global bifurcations. We focus here on the occurrence of global bifurcations in four food chain models, and discuss the implications of their occurrence. In two stoichiometric models (one piecewise continuous, one smooth) there exists a homoclinic bifurcation, that results in the disappearance of a limit cycle attractor. Instead, a stable positive equilibrium becomes the global attractor. The models are also capable of bistability. In two three-dimensional models a Shil'nikov homoclinic bifurcation functions as the organising centre of chaos, while tangencies of homoclinic cycle-to-cycle connections 'cut' the chaotic attractors, which is associated with boundary crises. In one model this leads to extinction of the top predator, while in the other model hysteresis occurs. The types of ecological events occurring because of a global bifurcation will be categorized. Global bifurcations are always catastrophic, leading to the disappearance or merging of attractors. However, there is no 1-on-1 coupling between global bifurcation type and the possible ecological consequences. This only emphasizes the importance of including global bifurcations in the analysis of food chain models.

  12. A Global Hydrological Model with Reservoir Operation Scheme: Global and Regional Applications (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Mateo, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2013-12-01

    More than 45000 large dams have been constructed all over the world, and their total storage capacity exceeds 7000 km3 which corresponds to approximately 20% of the total annual global river discharge. Explicit incorporation of reservoir operation is indispensable for global-/macro-scale hydrological models, since their storage capacity and potential of altering flow regime are too large to neglect. Our presentation consists of three parts. In the first part, the H08 model, a global hydrological model with reservoir operation scheme is introduced. The H08 model includes an algorithm to estimate reservoir operating rules of individual reservoirs. This enables us to apply the model to the regions and periods with no recorded reservoir operation. The key concepts and challenges of the model are discussed. In the second part, the role of reservoirs in water scarcity is globally assessed. In many parts of the world, local people are suffered from temporal variability in precipitation and river flow. The contribution of reservoirs to water scarcity alleviation is quantitatively and globally assessed. The assessment is extended to the future periods utilizing the latest climate and socio-economic scenarios. In the last part, a regional model application is introduced. The Chao Phraya River in Thailand was suffered from a severe flood in 2011. Vast area was inundated for months and the economic damages reached 40 billion USD. The Chao Phraya River has two major reservoirs and their role is crucial for both water use and flood control. The H08 model is substantially enhanced and applied to the basin to reproduce the 2011 floods. The tradeoff between water use and flood control was investigated by changing reservoir operation options.

  13. The role of size constancy for the integration of local elements into a global shape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes eRennig

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Visual perception depends on the visual context and is likely to be influenced by size constancy, which predicts a size and distance invariant perception of objects. However, size constancy can also result in optical illusions that allow the manipulation of the perceived size. We thus asked whether the integration of local elements into a global object can be influenced by manipulations of the visual context and size constancy? A set of stimuli was applied in healthy individuals that took advantage of the ‘Kanizsa’ illusion, in which three circles with open wedges oriented towards a center point are placed to form an illusionary perception of a triangle. In addition, a 3D-perspective view was implemented in which the global target (‘Kanizsa’ triangle was placed in combination with several distractor circles either in a close or a distant position. Subjects were engaged in a global recognition task on the location of the ‘Kanizsa’ triangle. Global recognition of ‘Kanizsa’ triangles improved with a decreasing length of the illusory contour. Interestingly, recognition of ‘Kanizsa’ triangles decreased when they were perceived as if they were located further away. We conclude that the integration of local elements into a global object is dependent on the visual context and dominated by size constancy.

  14. Connecting the dots: how local structure affects global integration in infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomares, Melanie; Pettet, Mark; Vildavski, Vladimir; Hou, Chuan; Norcia, Anthony

    2010-07-01

    Glass patterns are moirés created from a sparse random-dot field paired with its spatially shifted copy. Because discrimination of these patterns is not based on local features, they have been used extensively to study global integration processes. Here, we investigated whether 4- to 5.5-month-old infants are sensitive to the global structure of Glass patterns by measuring visual-evoked potentials. Although we found strong responses to the appearance of the constituent dots, we found sensitivity to the global structure of the Glass patterns in the infants only over a very limited range of spatial separation. In contrast, we observed robust responses in the infants when we connected the dot pairs of the Glass pattern with lines. Moreover, both infants and adults showed differential responses to exchanges between line patterns portraying different global structures. A control study varying luminance contrast in adults suggests that infant sensitivity to global structure is not primarily limited by reduced element visibility. Together our results suggest that the insensitivity to structure in conventional Glass patterns is due to inefficiencies in extracting the local orientation cues generated by the dot pairs. Once the local orientations are made unambiguous or when the interpolation span is small, infants can integrate these signals over the image.

  15. Comparing various multi-component global heliosphere models

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, H -R; Heerikhuisen, J; Izmodenov, V V; Scherer, K; Alexashov, D; Fahr, H -J

    2008-01-01

    Modeling of the global heliosphere seeks to investigate the interaction of the solar wind with the partially ionized local interstellar medium. Models that treat neutral hydrogen self-consistently and in great detail, together with the plasma, but that neglect magnetic fields, constitute a sub-category within global heliospheric models. There are several different modeling strategies used for this sub-category in the literature. Differences and commonalities in the modeling results from different strategies are pointed out. Plasma-only models and fully self-consistent models from four research groups, for which the neutral species is modeled with either one, three, or four fluids, or else kinetically, are run with the same boundary parameters and equations. They are compared to each other with respect to the locations of key heliospheric boundary locations and with respect to the neutral hydrogen content throughout the heliosphere. In many respects, the models' predictions are similar. In particular, the loca...

  16. 78 FR 10181 - Global Quality Systems-An Integrated Approach To Improving Medical Product Safety; Public Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-13

    ... ``Global Quality Systems--An Integrated Approach to Improving Medical Product Safety.'' This 2-day public... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Global Quality Systems--An Integrated Approach To Improving Medical Product Safety; Public Workshop AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION: Notice of...

  17. Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven; hide

    2017-01-01

    Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all

  18. FACETS -- Infrastructure for Integrated Fusion Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shasharina, Svetlana; Cary, John; Carlsson, Johan; Hakim, Ammar; Kruger, Scott; Miah, Mahmood; Pletzer, Alexander; Vadlamani, Srinath; Wade-Stein, David; Balay, Satish; McInnes, Lois; Zhang, Hong; Candy, Jeff; Fahey, Mark; Cohen, Ron; Epperly, Tom; Rognlien, Tom; Estep, Don; Pankin, Alexei; Malony, Allen; Morris, Alan; Shende, Sameer; Indireshkumar, Keshavamurthy; McCune, Douglas; Pigarov, Alexander

    2009-11-01

    It is desirable that an infrastructure for integrated fusion modeling has support for: legacy and new components used interchangeably; consistent management of components lifecycle; allocating parallel resources consistent with the nature of participating components and the problem scope; components written in multiple programming languages; composition of sequentially and concurrently executing components respecting dependencies; tight and loose coupling of components; testing and validation of separate and integrated components; and use of multiple platforms from desktops to LCFs. In this poster we will describe the status of the FACETS with respect to these features.

  19. Paradox of integration -- a computational model

    CERN Document Server

    Krawczyk, Malgorzata J

    2016-01-01

    The paradoxical aspect of integration of a social group has been highlighted by Peter Blau (Exchange and Power in Social Life, Wiley and Sons, 1964). During the integration process, the group members simultaneously compete for social status and play the role of the audience. Here we show that when the competition prevails over the desire of approval, a sharp transition breaks all friendly relations. However, as was described by Blau, people with high status are inclined to bother more with acceptance of others; this is achieved by praising others and revealing her/his own weak points. In our model, this action smooths the transition and improves interpersonal relations.

  20. Paradox of integration-A computational model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawczyk, Małgorzata J.; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

    2017-02-01

    The paradoxical aspect of integration of a social group has been highlighted by Blau (1964). During the integration process, the group members simultaneously compete for social status and play the role of the audience. Here we show that when the competition prevails over the desire of approval, a sharp transition breaks all friendly relations. However, as was described by Blau, people with high status are inclined to bother more with acceptance of others; this is achieved by praising others and revealing her/his own weak points. In our model, this action smooths the transition and improves interpersonal relations.

  1. Towards a 1km resolution global flood risk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Paul; Neal, Jeff; Sampson, Chris; Smith, Andy

    2014-05-01

    Recent advances in computationally efficient numerical algorithms and new High Performance Computing architectures now make high (1-2km) resolution global hydrodynamic models a realistic proposition. However in many areas of the world the data sets and tools necessary to undertake such modelling do not currently exist. In particular, five major problems need to be resolved: (1) the best globally available terrain data (SRTM) was generated from X-band interferometric radar data which does not penetrate vegetation canopies and which has significant problems in determining ground elevations in urban areas; (2) a global river bathymetry data set does not currently exist; (3) most river channels globally are less than the smallest currently resolvable grid scale (1km) and therefore require a sub-grid treatment; (4) a means to estimate the magnitude of the T year flood at any point along the global river network does not currently exist; and (5) a large proportion of flood losses are generated by off-floodplain surface water flows which are not well represented in current hydrodynamic modelling systems. In this paper we propose solutions to each of these five issues as part of a concerted effort to develop a 1km (or better) resolution global flood hazard model. We describe the new numerical algorithms, computer architectures and computational resources used, and demonstrate solutions to the five previously intractable problems identified above. We conduct a validation study of the modelling against satellite imagery of major flooding on the Mississippi-Missouri confluence plain in the central USA before outlining a proof-of-concept regional study for SE Asia as a step towards a global scale model. For SE Asia we simulate flood hazard for ten different flood return periods over the entire Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Laos region at 1km resolution and show that the modelling produces coherent, consistent and sensible simulations of extent and water depth.

  2. Electric vehicle business models global perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Beeton, David

    2014-01-01

    This contributed volume collects insights from industry professionals, policy makers and researchers on new and profitable business models in the field of electric vehicles (EV) for the mass market. This book includes approaches that address the optimization of total cost of ownership. Moreover, it presents alternative models of ownership, financing and leasing. The editors present state-of-the-art insights from international experts, including real-world case studies. The volume has been edited in the framework of the International Energy Agency's Implementing Agreement for Cooperation on Hy

  3. Architectural Benevolent Builders (ABB): A Global System Automating Integration of structured and Semistructured Sources

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    We investigate highly sophisticated mechanisms that merge and automate interoperability of heterogeneous traditional information systems together with the World Wide Web as one world. In particular, we introduce the ABB system that employs most of the Benevolent Builders (BB) which are assertions, integration rules, ABB-network graph and agents to activate the components' versatility to reconcile the semantics involved in data sharing in order to withstand the terrific dynamic computer technology in the present and future information age. The ABB is a global application system with its operation covering local databases to the Internet. The first three BB are passive objects, whereas, the agent has a strong versatility to perceive events, perform actions, communicate, make commitments, and satisfy claims. Due to the BB's power of intelligence, ABB also has the capability to filter out and process only the relevant operational sources like preferences (i.e. customer's interest) from the sites. The ABB's richness in knowledge and flexibility to accommodate various data models, manages to link: system-to-system or firm-to-firm regardless of the field such as: engineering, insurance, medical, space science, and education, to mention a few.

  4. Global integration of the Schr\\"odinger equation: a short iterative scheme within the wave operator formalism using discrete Fourier transforms

    CERN Document Server

    Leclerc, Arnaud

    2015-01-01

    A global solution of the Schr\\"odinger equation for explicitly time-dependent Hamiltonians is derived by integrating the non-linear differential equation associated with the time-dependent wave operator. A fast iterative solution method is proposed in which, however, numerous integrals over time have to be evaluated. This internal work is done using a numerical integrator based on Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT). The case of a transition between two potential wells of a model molecule driven by intense laser pulses is used as an illustrative example. This application reveals some interesting features of the integration technique. Each iteration provides a global approximate solution on grid points regularly distributed over the full time propagation interval. Inside the convergence radius, the complete integration is competitive with standard algorithms, especially when high accuracy is required.

  5. Flood Inundation Modelling Under Uncertainty Using Globally and Freely Available Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, K.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Giustarini, L.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2012-04-01

    The extreme consequences of recent catastrophic events have highlighted that flood risk prevention still needs to be improved to reduce human losses and economic damages, which have considerably increased worldwide in recent years. Flood risk management and long term floodplain planning are vital for living with floods, which is the currently proposed approach to cope with floods. To support the decision making processes, a significant issue is the availability of data to build appropriate and reliable models, from which the needed information could be obtained. The desirable data for model building, calibration and validation are often not sufficient or available. A unique opportunity is offered nowadays by globally available data which can be freely downloaded from internet. This might open new opportunities for filling the gap between available and needed data, in order to build reliable models and potentially lead to the development of global inundation models to produce floodplain maps for the entire globe. However, there remains the question of what is the real potential of those global remote sensing data, characterized by different accuracy, for global inundation monitoring and how to integrate them with inundation models. This research aims at contributing to understand whether the current globally and freely available remote sensing data (e.g. SRTM, SAR) can be actually used to appropriately support inundation modelling. In this study, the SRTM DEM is used for hydraulic model building, while ENVISAT-ASAR satellite imagery is used for model validation. To test the usefulness of these globally and freely available data, a model based on the high resolution LiDAR DEM and ground data (high water marks) is used as benchmark. The work is carried out on a data-rich test site: the River Alzette in the north of Luxembourg City. Uncertainties are estimated for both SRTM and LiDAR based models. Probabilistic flood inundation maps are produced under the framework of

  6. The 3-D global spatial data model foundation of the spatial data infrastructure

    CERN Document Server

    Burkholder, Earl F

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods for handling spatial data are encumbered by the assumption of separate origins for horizontal and vertical measurements. Modern measurement systems operate in a 3-D spatial environment. The 3-D Global Spatial Data Model: Foundation of the Spatial Data Infrastructure offers a new model for handling digital spatial data, the global spatial data model or GSDM. The GSDM preserves the integrity of three-dimensional spatial data while also providing additional benefits such as simpler equations, worldwide standardization, and the ability to track spatial data accuracy with greater specificity and convenience. This groundbreaking spatial model incorporates both a functional model and a stochastic model to connect the physical world to the ECEF rectangular system. Combining horizontal and vertical data into a single, three-dimensional database, this authoritative monograph provides a logical development of theoretical concepts and practical tools that can be used to handle spatial data mo...

  7. Novel Hybrid Model: Integrating Scrum and XP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaigham Mushtaq

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Scrum does not provide any direction about how to engineer a software product. The project team has to adopt suitable agile process model for the engineering of software. XP process model is mainly focused on engineering practices rather than management practices. The design of XP process makes it suitable for simple and small size projects and not appropriate for medium and large projects. A fine integration of management and engineering practices is desperately required to build quality product to make it valuable for customers. In this research a novel framework hybrid model is proposed to achieve this integration. The proposed hybrid model is actually an express version of Scrum model. It possesses features of engineering practices that are necessary to develop quality software as per customer requirements and company objectives. A case study is conducted to validate the proposal of hybrid model. The results of the case study reveal that proposed model is an improved version of XP and Scrum model.

  8. Requirements for a next generation global flood inundation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.

    2016-12-01

    In this paper we review the current status of global hydrodynamic models for flood inundation prediction and highlight recent successes and current limitations. Building on this analysis we then go on to consider what is required to develop the next generation of such schemes and show that to achieve this a number of fundamental science problems will need to be overcome. New data sets and new types of analysis will be required, and we show that these will only partially be met by currently planned satellite missions and data collection initiatives. A particular example is the quality of available global Digital Elevation data. The current best data set for flood modelling, SRTM, is only available at a relatively modest 30m resolution, contains pixel-to-pixel noise of 6m and is corrupted by surface artefacts. Creative processing techniques have sought to address these issues with some success, but fundamentally the quality of the available global terrain data limits flood modelling and needs to be overcome. Similar arguments can be made for many other elements of global hydrodynamic models including their bathymetry data, boundary conditions, flood defence information and model validation data. We therefore systematically review each component of global flood models and document whether planned new technology will solve current limitations and, if not, what exactly will be required to do so.

  9. Global comparison of three greenhouse climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bavel, van C.H.M.; Takakura, T.; Bot, G.P.A.

    1985-01-01

    Three dynamic simulation models for calculating the greenhouse climate and its energy requirements for both heating and cooling were compared by making detailed computations for each of seven sets of data. The data sets ranged from a cold winter day, requiring heating, to a hot summer day, requiring

  10. Radiative heating in global climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baer, F.; Arsky, N.; Rocque, K. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

    1996-04-01

    LWR algorithms from various GCMs vary significantly from one another for the same clear sky input data. This variability becomes pronounced when clouds are included. We demonstrate this effect by intercomparing the various models` output using observed data including clouds from ARM/CART data taken in Oklahoma.

  11. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Integrated Process Model on Intercultural Competence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Bebenova - Nikolova

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes an integrated model on intercultural competence, which attempts to present intercultural communication and competence from the term point of the dialectical approach, described by Martin and Nakayama (2010. The suggested concept deploys from previously developed and accepted models, both structure-oriented and process-oriented. At the same time it replies to the principles of the “Theory of Models” as outlined by Balboni and Caon (2014. In the near future, the model will be applied to assess intercultural competence of cross-border project teams, working under the CBC program between Romania – Bulgaria 2007-2014.

  13. Testing empirical relationships between global sea-level and global temperature in long climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Storch, H.; Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F.

    2009-04-01

    Estimations of future global sea-level rise brought about by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin are based on simulations with coarse-resolution global climate models, which imposes some limitations on the skill of future projections because some of the processes that modulate the heat and fresh water flux into may not be adequately represented. To fill this gap, and until more complex climate models are available, some ad-hoc methods have been proposed that link the rise in global average temperature with the global mean sea-level rise. The statistical methods can be calibrated with observations and applied to the future global temperature rise simulated by climate models. This methods can be tested in the virtual reality simulated by global atmosphere.ocean models. Thereby, deficiencies can be identified and improvement suggested. The output of 1000-year long climate model simulation with the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G over the past millennium has been used to determine the skill of different predictors to describe the variations of the rate of sea-level change in the simulation. These predictor variables comprise the global mean near-surface temperature, its rate of change with time and the heat-flux into the ocean. It is found that, in the framework of this climate simulation, global mean temperature is not a good predictor for the rate-of-change of sea-level. The correlation between both variables is not stable along the simulations and even its sign changes. A better predictor is the rate-of-change of temperature. Its correlation with the rate-of-change of sea-level is much more stable, it is always positive along the simulation, and there exists a lead-lag relationship between both that can be understood in simple physical terms. The best predictor among those tested is the heat-flux into the ocean. Its correlation is higher and there exists no time lag to the rate-of-change of sea-level, as expected

  14. New models of integrated health care management in nephrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Rosa; Molina, Manolo

    2013-01-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is becoming a worldwide major public health problem that is rapidly approaching epidemic proportions due to its high prevalence, as well as the associated increase of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in these patients. Early detection and prevention may have an impact on both slowing the progression of CKD and reducing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. CKD prevention programmes can be more cost-efficient over time without negative impacts on quality of care. Until now, reimbursement in CKD has been segmented and usually focused on the end of the process (dialysis) when cost is higher, whereas new models focused on provider integration, while balancing quality and costs, are needed to respond to today’s challenges. Traditionally, “pay for services” has been used in state-assisted dialysis centres, but this model has the risk of inducing an increase in demand. Integrated management would respond to this challenge with comprehensive solutions that manage kidney disease at all levels of health care risk. It is based on a comprehensive model that typically includes several products and services, often including pharmacological treatments. The rate of reimbursement directly depends on the achievement of previously defined quality control parameters. The third model is based on a “capitation” model that consists of the provider receiving a set amount of resources per population for a particular time regardless of the volume of services provided. The complexity and the progressive nature of CKD along with the associated morbidity rates in these patients force us to consider a global approach rather than a sum of different services. In our opinion, the first method of reimbursement in CKD that should be considered is a bundle rate, and when this model has been consolidated, tending toward a global capitation model.

  15. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Jian-Guo

    2011-09-01

    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  16. A new global river network database for macroscale hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Huan; Kimball, John S.; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, L. Ruby; Adler, Robert F.

    2012-09-01

    Coarse-resolution (upscaled) river networks are critical inputs for runoff routing in macroscale hydrologic models. Recently, Wu et al. (2011) developed a hierarchical dominant river tracing (DRT) algorithm for automated extraction and spatial upscaling of river networks using fine-scale hydrography inputs. We applied the DRT algorithms using combined HydroSHEDS and HYDRO1k global fine-scale hydrography inputs and produced a new series of upscaled global river network data at multiple (1/16° to 2°) spatial resolutions. The new upscaled results are internally consistent and congruent with the baseline fine-scale inputs and should facilitate improved regional to global scale hydrologic simulations.

  17. GLOBAL STABILITY OF AN SVIR EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH VACCINATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, an SIR epidemic model with vaccination for both the newborns and susceptibles is investigated, where it is assumed that the vaccinated individuals have the temporary immunity. The basic reproduction number determining the extinction or persistence of the infection is found. By constructing a Lyapunov function, it is proved that the disease free equilibrium is globally stable when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to one, and that the endemic equilibrium is globally stable wh...

  18. Toward an Internal Gravity Wave Spectrum in Global Ocean Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-14

    Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302 Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law , no person shall be...14 MAY 2015 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2015 to 00-00-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Toward an Internal Gravity Wave Spectrum in Global...resolution global ocean models forced by atmospheric fields and tides are beginning to display realistic internal gravity wave spectra, especially as

  19. Global Solar Dynamo Models: Simulations and Predictions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mausumi Dikpati; Peter A. Gilman

    2008-03-01

    Flux-transport type solar dynamos have achieved considerable success in correctly simulating many solar cycle features, and are now being used for prediction of solar cycle timing and amplitude.We first define flux-transport dynamos and demonstrate how they work. The essential added ingredient in this class of models is meridional circulation, which governs the dynamo period and also plays a crucial role in determining the Sun’s memory about its past magnetic fields.We show that flux-transport dynamo models can explain many key features of solar cycles. Then we show that a predictive tool can be built from this class of dynamo that can be used to predict mean solar cycle features by assimilating magnetic field data from previous cycles.

  20. Aerosol measurement program strategy for global aerosol backscatter model development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowdle, David A.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose was to propose a balanced program of aerosol backscatter research leading to the development of a global model of aerosol backscatter. Such a model is needed for feasibility studies and systems simulation studies for NASA's prospective satellite-based Doppler lidar wind measurement system. Systems of this kind measure the Doppler shift in the backscatter return from small atmospheric aerosol wind tracers (of order 1 micrometer diameter). The accuracy of the derived local wind estimates and the degree of global wind coverage for such a system are limited by the local availability and by the global scale distribution of natural aerosol particles. The discussions here refer primarily to backscatter model requirements at CO2 wavelengths, which have been selected for most of the Doppler lidar systems studies to date. Model requirements for other potential wavelengths would be similar.