WorldWideScience

Sample records for model input errors

  1. Modeling Input Errors to Improve Uncertainty Estimates for Sediment Transport Model Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, J. Y.; Niemann, J. D.; Greimann, B. P.

    2016-12-01

    Bayesian methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have recently been applied to sediment transport models to assess the uncertainty in the model predictions due to the parameter values. Unfortunately, the existing approaches can only attribute overall uncertainty to the parameters. This limitation is critical because no model can produce accurate forecasts if forced with inaccurate input data, even if the model is well founded in physical theory. In this research, an existing Bayesian method is modified to consider the potential errors in input data during the uncertainty evaluation process. The input error is modeled using Gaussian distributions, and the means and standard deviations are treated as uncertain parameters. The proposed approach is tested by coupling it to the Sedimentation and River Hydraulics - One Dimension (SRH-1D) model and simulating a 23-km reach of the Tachia River in Taiwan. The Wu equation in SRH-1D is used for computing the transport capacity for a bed material load of non-cohesive material. Three types of input data are considered uncertain: (1) the input flowrate at the upstream boundary, (2) the water surface elevation at the downstream boundary, and (3) the water surface elevation at a hydraulic structure in the middle of the reach. The benefits of modeling the input errors in the uncertainty analysis are evaluated by comparing the accuracy of the most likely forecast and the coverage of the observed data by the credible intervals to those of the existing method. The results indicate that the internal boundary condition has the largest uncertainty among those considered. Overall, the uncertainty estimates from the new method are notably different from those of the existing method for both the calibration and forecast periods.

  2. Errors in estimation of the input signal for integrate-and-fire neuronal models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bibbona, E.; Lánský, Petr; Sacerdote, L.; Sirovich, R.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 78, č. 1 (2008), s. 1-10 ISSN 1539-3755 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LC554; GA AV ČR(CZ) 1ET400110401 Grant - others:EC(XE) MIUR PRIN 2005 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : parameter estimation * stochastic neuronal model Subject RIV: BO - Biophysics Impact factor: 2.508, year: 2008 http://link.aps.org/abstract/PRE/v78/e011918

  3. Residents' numeric inputting error in computerized physician order entry prescription.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xue; Wu, Changxu; Zhang, Kan; Wei, Dong

    2016-04-01

    Computerized physician order entry (CPOE) system with embedded clinical decision support (CDS) can significantly reduce certain types of prescription error. However, prescription errors still occur. Various factors such as the numeric inputting methods in human computer interaction (HCI) produce different error rates and types, but has received relatively little attention. This study aimed to examine the effects of numeric inputting methods and urgency levels on numeric inputting errors of prescription, as well as categorize the types of errors. Thirty residents participated in four prescribing tasks in which two factors were manipulated: numeric inputting methods (numeric row in the main keyboard vs. numeric keypad) and urgency levels (urgent situation vs. non-urgent situation). Multiple aspects of participants' prescribing behavior were measured in sober prescribing situations. The results revealed that in urgent situations, participants were prone to make mistakes when using the numeric row in the main keyboard. With control of performance in the sober prescribing situation, the effects of the input methods disappeared, and urgency was found to play a significant role in the generalized linear model. Most errors were either omission or substitution types, but the proportion of transposition and intrusion error types were significantly higher than that of the previous research. Among numbers 3, 8, and 9, which were the less common digits used in prescription, the error rate was higher, which was a great risk to patient safety. Urgency played a more important role in CPOE numeric typing error-making than typing skills and typing habits. It was recommended that inputting with the numeric keypad had lower error rates in urgent situation. An alternative design could consider increasing the sensitivity of the keys with lower frequency of occurrence and decimals. To improve the usability of CPOE, numeric keyboard design and error detection could benefit from spatial

  4. DC servomechanism parameter identification: a Closed Loop Input Error approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrido, Ruben; Miranda, Roger

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a Closed Loop Input Error (CLIE) approach for on-line parametric estimation of a continuous-time model of a DC servomechanism functioning in closed loop. A standard Proportional Derivative (PD) position controller stabilizes the loop without requiring knowledge on the servomechanism parameters. The analysis of the identification algorithm takes into account the control law employed for closing the loop. The model contains four parameters that depend on the servo inertia, viscous, and Coulomb friction as well as on a constant disturbance. Lyapunov stability theory permits assessing boundedness of the signals associated to the identification algorithm. Experiments on a laboratory prototype allows evaluating the performance of the approach. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. QUALITATIVE DATA AND ERROR MEASUREMENT IN INPUT-OUTPUT-ANALYSIS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    NIJKAMP, P; OOSTERHAVEN, J; OUWERSLOOT, H; RIETVELD, P

    1992-01-01

    This paper is a contribution to the rapidly emerging field of qualitative data analysis in economics. Ordinal data techniques and error measurement in input-output analysis are here combined in order to test the reliability of a low level of measurement and precision of data by means of a stochastic

  6. Decision Aids for Multiple-Decision Disease Management as Affected by Weather Input Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many disease management decision support systems (DSS) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and manage...

  7. Modeling coherent errors in quantum error correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenbaum, Daniel; Dutton, Zachary

    2018-01-01

    Analysis of quantum error correcting codes is typically done using a stochastic, Pauli channel error model for describing the noise on physical qubits. However, it was recently found that coherent errors (systematic rotations) on physical data qubits result in both physical and logical error rates that differ significantly from those predicted by a Pauli model. Here we examine the accuracy of the Pauli approximation for noise containing coherent errors (characterized by a rotation angle ɛ) under the repetition code. We derive an analytic expression for the logical error channel as a function of arbitrary code distance d and concatenation level n, in the small error limit. We find that coherent physical errors result in logical errors that are partially coherent and therefore non-Pauli. However, the coherent part of the logical error is negligible at fewer than {ε }-({dn-1)} error correction cycles when the decoder is optimized for independent Pauli errors, thus providing a regime of validity for the Pauli approximation. Above this number of correction cycles, the persistent coherent logical error will cause logical failure more quickly than the Pauli model would predict, and this may need to be combated with coherent suppression methods at the physical level or larger codes.

  8. On Optimal Input Design and Model Selection for Communication Channels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Yanyan [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M [ORNL; Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the optimal model (structure) selection and input design which minimize the worst case identification error for communication systems are provided. The problem is formulated using metric complexity theory in a Hilbert space setting. It is pointed out that model selection and input design can be handled independently. Kolmogorov n-width is used to characterize the representation error introduced by model selection, while Gel fand and Time n-widths are used to represent the inherent error introduced by input design. After the model is selected, an optimal input which minimizes the worst case identification error is shown to exist. In particular, it is proven that the optimal model for reducing the representation error is a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) model, and the optimal input is an impulse at the start of the observation interval. FIR models are widely popular in communication systems, such as, in Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems.

  9. Aircraft system modeling error and control error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Nilesh V. (Inventor); Kaneshige, John T. (Inventor); Krishnakumar, Kalmanje S. (Inventor); Burken, John J. (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A method for modeling error-driven adaptive control of an aircraft. Normal aircraft plant dynamics is modeled, using an original plant description in which a controller responds to a tracking error e(k) to drive the component to a normal reference value according to an asymptote curve. Where the system senses that (1) at least one aircraft plant component is experiencing an excursion and (2) the return of this component value toward its reference value is not proceeding according to the expected controller characteristics, neural network (NN) modeling of aircraft plant operation may be changed. However, if (1) is satisfied but the error component is returning toward its reference value according to expected controller characteristics, the NN will continue to model operation of the aircraft plant according to an original description.

  10. Modeling and generating input processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1987-01-01

    This tutorial paper provides information relevant to the selection and generation of stochastic inputs to simulation studies. The primary area considered is multivariate but much of the philosophy at least is relevant to univariate inputs as well. 14 refs.

  11. Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

    2011-06-01

    Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

  12. Transition Models with Measurement Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Magnac, Thierry; Visser, Michael

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, we estimate a transition model that allows for measurement errors in the data. The measurement errors arise because the survey design is partly retrospective, so that individuals sometimes forget or misclassify their past labor market transitions. The observed data are adjusted for errors via a measurement-error mechanism. The parameters of the distribution of the true data, and those of the measurement-error mechanism are estimated by a two-stage method. The results, based on ...

  13. Error Resilient Video Compression Using Behavior Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacco R. Taal

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Wireless and Internet video applications are inherently subjected to bit errors and packet errors, respectively. This is especially so if constraints on the end-to-end compression and transmission latencies are imposed. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methods to optimize the video compression parameters and the rate allocation of these applications that take into account residual channel bit errors. In this paper, we study the behavior of a predictive (interframe video encoder and model the encoders behavior using only the statistics of the original input data and of the underlying channel prone to bit errors. The resulting data-driven behavior models are then used to carry out group-of-pictures partitioning and to control the rate of the video encoder in such a way that the overall quality of the decoded video with compression and channel errors is optimized.

  14. A Geomagnetic Reference Error Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maus, S.; Woods, A. J.; Nair, M. C.

    2011-12-01

    The accuracy of geomagnetic field models, such as the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the World Magnetic Model (WMM), has benefitted tremendously from the ongoing series of satellite magnetic missions. However, what do we mean by accuracy? When comparing a geomagnetic reference model with a magnetic field measurement (for example of an electronic compass), three contributions play a role: (1) The instrument error, which is not subject of this discussion, (2) the error of commission, namely the error of the model coefficients themselves in representing the geomagnetic main field, and (3) the error of omission, comprising contributions to the geomagnetic field which are not represented in the reference model. The latter can further be subdivided into the omission of the crustal field and the omission of the disturbance field. Several factors have a strong influence on these errors: The error of commission primarily depends on the time elapsed since the last update of the reference model. The omission error for the crustal field depends on altitude of the measurement, while the omission error for the disturbance field has a strong latitudinal dependence, peaking under the auroral electrojets. A further complication arises for the uncertainty in magnetic declination, which is directly dependent on the strength of the horizontal field. Here, we present an error model which takes all of these factors into account. This error model will be implemented as an online-calculator, providing the uncertainty of the magnetic elements at the entered location and time.

  15. Development of a simulation program to study error propagation in the reprocessing input accountancy measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanfilippo, L.

    1987-01-01

    A physical model and a computer program have been developed to simulate all the measurement operations involved with the Isotopic Dilution Analysis technique currently applied in the Volume - Concentration method for the Reprocessing Input Accountancy, together with their errors or uncertainties. The simulator is apt to easily solve a number of problems related to the measurement sctivities of the plant operator and the inspector. The program, written in Fortran 77, is based on a particular Montecarlo technique named ''Random Sampling''; a full description of the code is reported

  16. The Maximum Error Probability Criterion, Random Encoder, and Feedback, in Multiple Input Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Cai

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available For a multiple input channel, one may define different capacity regions, according to the criterions of error, types of codes, and presence of feedback. In this paper, we aim to draw a complete picture of relations among these different capacity regions. To this end, we first prove that the average-error-probability capacity region of a multiple input channel can be achieved by a random code under the criterion of maximum error probability. Moreover, we show that for a non-deterministic multiple input channel with feedback, the capacity regions are the same under two different error criterions. In addition, we discuss two special classes of channels to shed light on the relation of different capacity regions. In particular, to illustrate the roles of feedback, we provide a class of MAC, for which feedback may enlarge maximum-error-probability capacity regions, but not average-error-capacity regions. Besides, we present a class of MAC, as an example for which the maximum-error-probability capacity regions are strictly smaller than the average-error-probability capacity regions (first example showing this was due to G. Dueck. Differently from G. Dueck’s enlightening example in which a deterministic MAC was considered, our example includes and further generalizes G. Dueck’s example by taking both deterministic and non-deterministic MACs into account. Finally, we extend our results for a discrete memoryless two-input channel, to compound, arbitrarily varying MAC, and MAC with more than two inputs.

  17. Stochastic Models of Human Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshamy, Maged; Elliott, Dawn M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Humans play an important role in the overall reliability of engineering systems. More often accidents and systems failure are traced to human errors. Therefore, in order to have meaningful system risk analysis, the reliability of the human element must be taken into consideration. Describing the human error process by mathematical models is a key to analyzing contributing factors. Therefore, the objective of this research effort is to establish stochastic models substantiated by sound theoretic foundation to address the occurrence of human errors in the processing of the space shuttle.

  18. Isolating Graphical Failure-Inducing Input for Privacy Protection in Error Reporting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matos João

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This work proposes a new privacy-enhancing system that minimizes the disclosure of information in error reports. Error reporting mechanisms are of the utmost importance to correct software bugs but, unfortunately, the transmission of an error report may reveal users’ private information. Some privacy-enhancing systems for error reporting have been presented in the past years, yet they rely on path condition analysis, which we show in this paper to be ineffective when it comes to graphical-based input. Knowing that numerous applications have graphical user interfaces (GUI, it is very important to overcome such limitation. This work describes a new privacy-enhancing error reporting system, based on a new input minimization algorithm called GUIᴍɪɴ that is geared towards GUI, to remove input that is unnecessary to reproduce the observed failure. Before deciding whether to submit the error report, the user is provided with a step-by-step graphical replay of the minimized input, to evaluate whether it still yields sensitive information. We also provide an open source implementation of the proposed system and evaluate it with well-known applications.

  19. Negative Input for Grammatical Errors: Effects after a Lag of 12 Weeks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxton, Matthew; Backley, Phillip; Gallaway, Clare

    2005-01-01

    Effects of negative input for 13 categories of grammatical error were assessed in a longitudinal study of naturalistic adult-child discourse. Two-hour samples of conversational interaction were obtained at two points in time, separated by a lag of 12 weeks, for 12 children (mean age 2;0 at the start). The data were interpreted within the framework…

  20. Minimum Symbol Error Rate Detection in Single-Input Multiple-Output Channels with Markov Noise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Lars P.B.

    2005-01-01

    Minimum symbol error rate detection in Single-Input Multiple- Output(SIMO) channels with Markov noise is presented. The special case of zero-mean Gauss-Markov noise is examined closer as it only requires knowledge of the second-order moments. In this special case, it is shown that optimal detection...

  1. Correction of an input function for errors introduced with automated blood sampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlyer, D.J.; Dewey, S.L. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1994-05-01

    Accurate kinetic modeling of PET data requires an precise arterial plasma input function. The use of automated blood sampling machines has greatly improved the accuracy but errors can be introduced by the dispersion of the radiotracer in the sampling tubing. This dispersion results from three effects. The first is the spreading of the radiotracer in the tube due to mass transfer. The second is due to the mechanical action of the peristaltic pump and can be determined experimentally from the width of a step function. The third is the adsorption of the radiotracer on the walls of the tubing during transport through the tube. This is a more insidious effect since the amount recovered from the end of the tube can be significantly different than that introduced into the tubing. We have measured the simple mass transport using [{sup 18}F]fluoride in water which we have shown to be quantitatively recovered with no interaction with the tubing walls. We have also carried out experiments with several radiotracers including [{sup 18}F]Haloperidol, [{sup 11}C]L-deprenyl, [{sup 18}]N-methylspiroperidol ([{sup 18}F]NMS) and [{sup 11}C]buprenorphine. In all cases there was some retention of the radiotracer by untreated silicone tubing. The amount retained in the tubing ranged from 6% for L-deprenyl to 30% for NMS. The retention of the radiotracer was essentially eliminated after pretreatment with the relevant unlabeled compound. For example less am 2% of the [{sup 18}F]NMS was retained in tubing treated with unlabelled NMS. Similar results were obtained with baboon plasma although the amount retained in the untreated tubing was less in all cases. From these results it is possible to apply a mathematical correction to the measured input function to account for mechanical dispersion and to apply a chemical passivation to the tubing to reduce the dispersion due to adsorption of the radiotracer on the tubing walls.

  2. Error propagation in energetic carrying capacity models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearse, Aaron T.; Stafford, Joshua D.

    2014-01-01

    Conservation objectives derived from carrying capacity models have been used to inform management of landscapes for wildlife populations. Energetic carrying capacity models are particularly useful in conservation planning for wildlife; these models use estimates of food abundance and energetic requirements of wildlife to target conservation actions. We provide a general method for incorporating a foraging threshold (i.e., density of food at which foraging becomes unprofitable) when estimating food availability with energetic carrying capacity models. We use a hypothetical example to describe how past methods for adjustment of foraging thresholds biased results of energetic carrying capacity models in certain instances. Adjusting foraging thresholds at the patch level of the species of interest provides results consistent with ecological foraging theory. Presentation of two case studies suggest variation in bias which, in certain instances, created large errors in conservation objectives and may have led to inefficient allocation of limited resources. Our results also illustrate how small errors or biases in application of input parameters, when extrapolated to large spatial extents, propagate errors in conservation planning and can have negative implications for target populations.

  3. Model reduction of nonlinear systems subject to input disturbances

    KAUST Repository

    Ndoye, Ibrahima

    2017-07-10

    The method of convex optimization is used as a tool for model reduction of a class of nonlinear systems in the presence of disturbances. It is shown that under some conditions the nonlinear disturbed system can be approximated by a reduced order nonlinear system with similar disturbance-output properties to the original plant. The proposed model reduction strategy preserves the nonlinearity and the input disturbance nature of the model. It guarantees a sufficiently small error between the outputs of the original and the reduced-order systems, and also maintains the properties of input-to-state stability. The matrices of the reduced order system are given in terms of a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The paper concludes with a demonstration of the proposed approach on model reduction of a nonlinear electronic circuit with additive disturbances.

  4. Measurement error models with interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Midthune, Douglas; Carroll, Raymond J.; Freedman, Laurence S.; Kipnis, Victor

    2016-01-01

    An important use of measurement error models is to correct regression models for bias due to covariate measurement error. Most measurement error models assume that the observed error-prone covariate (\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$W$\\end{document}) is a linear function of the unobserved true covariate (\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$X$\\end{document}) plus other covariates (\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$Z$\\end{document}) in the regression model. In this paper, we consider models for \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$W$\\end{document} that include interactions between \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$X$\\end{document} and \\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document} }{}$Z$\\end{document}. We derive the conditional distribution of

  5. A New Open-Loop Fiber Optic Gyro Error Compensation Method Based on Angular Velocity Error Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Yanshun; Guo, Yajing; Li, Chunyu; Wang, Yixin; Wang, Zhanqing

    2015-01-01

    With the open-loop fiber optic gyro (OFOG) model, output voltage and angular velocity can effectively compensate OFOG errors. However, the model cannot reflect the characteristics of OFOG errors well when it comes to pretty large dynamic angular velocities. This paper puts forward a modeling scheme with OFOG output voltage  and temperature  as the input variables and angular velocity error  as the output variable. Firstly, the angular ve...

  6. Input point distribution for regular stem form spline modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Kuželka

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: To optimize an interpolation method and distribution of measured diameters to represent regular stem form of coniferous trees using a set of discrete points. Area of study: Central-Bohemian highlands, Czech Republic; a region that represents average stand conditions of production forests of Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst. in central Europe Material and methods: The accuracy of stem curves modeled using natural cubic splines from a set of measured diameters was evaluated for 85 closely measured stems of Norway spruce using five statistical indicators and compared to the accuracy of three additional models based on different spline types selected for their ability to represent stem curves. The optimal positions to measure diameters were identified using an aggregate objective function approach. Main results: The optimal positions of the input points vary depending on the properties of each spline type. If the optimal input points for each spline are used, then all spline types are able to give reasonable results with higher numbers of input points. The commonly used natural cubic spline was outperformed by other spline types. The lowest errors occur by interpolating the points using the Catmull-Rom spline, which gives accurate and unbiased volume estimates, even with only five input points. Research highlights: The study contributes to more accurate representation of stem form and therefore more accurate estimation of stem volume using data obtained from terrestrial imagery or other close-range remote sensing methods.

  7. Computer input devices: neutral party or source of significant error in manual lesion segmentation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, James Y; Seagull, F Jacob; Nagy, Paul; Lakhani, Paras; Melhem, Elias R; Siegel, Eliot L; Safdar, Nabile M

    2011-02-01

    Lesion segmentation involves outlining the contour of an abnormality on an image to distinguish boundaries between normal and abnormal tissue and is essential to track malignant and benign disease in medical imaging for clinical, research, and treatment purposes. A laser optical mouse and a graphics tablet were used by radiologists to segment 12 simulated reference lesions per subject in two groups (one group comprised three lesion morphologies in two sizes, one for each input device for each device two sets of six, composed of three morphologies in two sizes each). Time for segmentation was recorded. Subjects completed an opinion survey following segmentation. Error in contour segmentation was calculated using root mean square error. Error in area of segmentation was calculated compared to the reference lesion. 11 radiologists segmented a total of 132 simulated lesions. Overall error in contour segmentation was less with the graphics tablet than with the mouse (P Error in area of segmentation was not significantly different between the tablet and the mouse (P = 0.62). Time for segmentation was less with the tablet than the mouse (P = 0.011). All subjects preferred the graphics tablet for future segmentation (P = 0.011) and felt subjectively that the tablet was faster, easier, and more accurate (P = 0.0005). For purposes in which accuracy in contour of lesion segmentation is of the greater importance, the graphics tablet is superior to the mouse in accuracy with a small speed benefit. For purposes in which accuracy of area of lesion segmentation is of greater importance, the graphics tablet and mouse are equally accurate.

  8. A vector model for error propagation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, D.L.; Geraldo, L.P.

    1989-03-01

    A simple vector model for error propagation, which is entirely equivalent to the conventional statistical approach, is discussed. It offers considerable insight into the nature of error propagation while, at the same time, readily demonstrating the significance of uncertainty correlations. This model is well suited to the analysis of error for sets of neutron-induced reaction cross sections. 7 refs., 1 fig.

  9. Temporal rainfall estimation using input data reduction and model inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, A. J.; Vrugt, J. A.; Walker, J. P.; Pauwels, V. R. N.

    2016-12-01

    Floods are devastating natural hazards. To provide accurate, precise and timely flood forecasts there is a need to understand the uncertainties associated with temporal rainfall and model parameters. The estimation of temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions from streamflow observations in complex dynamic catchments adds skill to current areal rainfall estimation methods, allows for the uncertainty of rainfall input to be considered when estimating model parameters and provides the ability to estimate rainfall from poorly gauged catchments. Current methods to estimate temporal rainfall distributions from streamflow are unable to adequately explain and invert complex non-linear hydrologic systems. This study uses the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to reduce rainfall dimensionality for the catchment of Warwick, Queensland, Australia. The reduction of rainfall to DWT coefficients allows the input rainfall time series to be simultaneously estimated along with model parameters. The estimation process is conducted using multi-chain Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with the DREAMZS algorithm. The use of a likelihood function that considers both rainfall and streamflow error allows for model parameter and temporal rainfall distributions to be estimated. Estimation of the wavelet approximation coefficients of lower order decomposition structures was able to estimate the most realistic temporal rainfall distributions. These rainfall estimates were all able to simulate streamflow that was superior to the results of a traditional calibration approach. It is shown that the choice of wavelet has a considerable impact on the robustness of the inversion. The results demonstrate that streamflow data contains sufficient information to estimate temporal rainfall and model parameter distributions. The extent and variance of rainfall time series that are able to simulate streamflow that is superior to that simulated by a traditional calibration approach is a

  10. Effects of input uncertainty on cross-scale crop modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waha, Katharina; Huth, Neil; Carberry, Peter

    2014-05-01

    The quality of data on climate, soils and agricultural management in the tropics is in general low or data is scarce leading to uncertainty in process-based modeling of cropping systems. Process-based crop models are common tools for simulating crop yields and crop production in climate change impact studies, studies on mitigation and adaptation options or food security studies. Crop modelers are concerned about input data accuracy as this, together with an adequate representation of plant physiology processes and choice of model parameters, are the key factors for a reliable simulation. For example, assuming an error in measurements of air temperature, radiation and precipitation of ± 0.2°C, ± 2 % and ± 3 % respectively, Fodor & Kovacs (2005) estimate that this translates into an uncertainty of 5-7 % in yield and biomass simulations. In our study we seek to answer the following questions: (1) are there important uncertainties in the spatial variability of simulated crop yields on the grid-cell level displayed on maps, (2) are there important uncertainties in the temporal variability of simulated crop yields on the aggregated, national level displayed in time-series, and (3) how does the accuracy of different soil, climate and management information influence the simulated crop yields in two crop models designed for use at different spatial scales? The study will help to determine whether more detailed information improves the simulations and to advise model users on the uncertainty related to input data. We analyse the performance of the point-scale crop model APSIM (Keating et al., 2003) and the global scale crop model LPJmL (Bondeau et al., 2007) with different climate information (monthly and daily) and soil conditions (global soil map and African soil map) under different agricultural management (uniform and variable sowing dates) for the low-input maize-growing areas in Burkina Faso/West Africa. We test the models' response to different levels of input

  11. Remote sensing inputs to water demand modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J. E.; Jensen, J. R.; Tinney, L. R.; Rector, M.

    1975-01-01

    In an attempt to determine the ability of remote sensing techniques to economically generate data required by water demand models, the Geography Remote Sensing Unit, in conjunction with the Kern County Water Agency of California, developed an analysis model. As a result it was determined that agricultural cropland inventories utilizing both high altitude photography and LANDSAT imagery can be conducted cost effectively. In addition, by using average irrigation application rates in conjunction with cropland data, estimates of agricultural water demand can be generated. However, more accurate estimates are possible if crop type, acreage, and crop specific application rates are employed. An analysis of the effect of saline-alkali soils on water demand in the study area is also examined. Finally, reference is made to the detection and delineation of water tables that are perched near the surface by semi-permeable clay layers. Soil salinity prediction, automated crop identification on a by-field basis, and a potential input to the determination of zones of equal benefit taxation are briefly touched upon.

  12. Measurement error models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Buonaccorsi, John P

    2010-01-01

    Over the last 20 years, comprehensive strategies for treating measurement error in complex models and accounting for the use of extra data to estimate measurement error parameters have emerged. Focusing on both established and novel approaches, ""Measurement Error: Models, Methods, and Applications"" provides an overview of the main techniques and illustrates their application in various models. It describes the impacts of measurement errors on naive analyses that ignore them and presents ways to correct for them across a variety of statistical models, from simple one-sample problems to regres

  13. Correcting Text Production Errors: Isolating the Effects of Writing Mode from Error Span, Input Mode, and Lexicality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leijten, Marielle; Van Waes, Luuk; Ransdell, Sarah

    2010-01-01

    Error analysis involves detecting, diagnosing, and correcting discrepancies between the text produced so far (TPSF) and the writers mental representation of what the text should be. The use of different writing modes, like keyboard-based word processing and speech recognition, causes different type of errors during text production. While many…

  14. Modeling measurement error in tumor characterization studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjoram Paul

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Etiologic studies of cancer increasingly use molecular features such as gene expression, DNA methylation and sequence mutation to subclassify the cancer type. In large population-based studies, the tumor tissues available for study are archival specimens that provide variable amounts of amplifiable DNA for molecular analysis. As molecular features measured from small amounts of tumor DNA are inherently noisy, we propose a novel approach to improve statistical efficiency when comparing groups of samples. We illustrate the phenomenon using the MethyLight technology, applying our proposed analysis to compare MLH1 DNA methylation levels in males and females studied in the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Results We introduce two methods for computing empirical weights to model heteroscedasticity that is caused by sampling variable quantities of DNA for molecular analysis. In a simulation study, we show that using these weights in a linear regression model is more powerful for identifying differentially methylated loci than standard regression analysis. The increase in power depends on the underlying relationship between variation in outcome measure and input DNA quantity in the study samples. Conclusions Tumor characteristics measured from small amounts of tumor DNA are inherently noisy. We propose a statistical analysis that accounts for the measurement error due to sampling variation of the molecular feature and show how it can improve the power to detect differential characteristics between patient groups.

  15. Robust input design for nonlinear dynamic modeling of AUV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nouri, Nowrouz Mohammad; Valadi, Mehrdad

    2017-09-01

    Input design has a dominant role in developing the dynamic model of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) through system identification. Optimal input design is the process of generating informative inputs that can be used to generate the good quality dynamic model of AUVs. In a problem with optimal input design, the desired input signal depends on the unknown system which is intended to be identified. In this paper, the input design approach which is robust to uncertainties in model parameters is used. The Bayesian robust design strategy is applied to design input signals for dynamic modeling of AUVs. The employed approach can design multiple inputs and apply constraints on an AUV system's inputs and outputs. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is employed to solve the constraint robust optimization problem. The presented algorithm is used for designing the input signals for an AUV, and the estimate obtained by robust input design is compared with that of the optimal input design. According to the results, proposed input design can satisfy both robustness of constraints and optimality. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Error estimation and adaptive chemical transport modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malte Braack

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a numerical method to use several chemical transport models of increasing accuracy and complexity in an adaptive way. In largest parts of the domain, a simplified chemical model may be used, whereas in certain regions a more complex model is needed for accuracy reasons. A mathematically derived error estimator measures the modeling error and provides information where to use more accurate models. The error is measured in terms of output functionals. Therefore, one has to consider adjoint problems which carry sensitivity information. This concept is demonstrated by means of ozone formation and pollution emission.

  17. A probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input model construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Jiang; Zabaras, Nicholas

    2014-01-01

    Model reduction techniques have been widely used in modeling of high-dimensional stochastic input in uncertainty quantification tasks. However, the probabilistic modeling of random variables projected into reduced-order spaces presents a number of computational challenges. Due to the curse of dimensionality, the underlying dependence relationships between these random variables are difficult to capture. In this work, a probabilistic graphical model based approach is employed to learn the dependence by running a number of conditional independence tests using observation data. Thus a probabilistic model of the joint PDF is obtained and the PDF is factorized into a set of conditional distributions based on the dependence structure of the variables. The estimation of the joint PDF from data is then transformed to estimating conditional distributions under reduced dimensions. To improve the computational efficiency, a polynomial chaos expansion is further applied to represent the random field in terms of a set of standard random variables. This technique is combined with both linear and nonlinear model reduction methods. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the probabilistic graphical model based stochastic input models. - Highlights: • Data-driven stochastic input models without the assumption of independence of the reduced random variables. • The problem is transformed to a Bayesian network structure learning problem. • Examples are given in flows in random media

  18. Improving the Performance of Water Demand Forecasting Models by Using Weather Input

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.; Van Duist, H.; Van Schagen, K.; Vreeburg, J.; Rietveld, L.

    2014-01-01

    Literature shows that water demand forecasting models which use water demand as single input, are capable of generating a fairly accurate forecast. However, at changing weather conditions the forecasting errors are quite large. In this paper three different forecasting models are studied: an

  19. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  20. Functional Error Models to Accelerate Nested Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josset, L.; Elsheikh, A. H.; Demyanov, V.; Lunati, I.

    2014-12-01

    The main challenge in groundwater problems is the reliance on large numbers of unknown parameters with wide rage of associated uncertainties. To translate this uncertainty to quantities of interest (for instance the concentration of pollutant in a drinking well), a large number of forward flow simulations is required. To make the problem computationally tractable, Josset et al. (2013, 2014) introduced the concept of functional error models. It consists in two elements: a proxy model that is cheaper to evaluate than the full physics flow solver and an error model to account for the missing physics. The coupling of the proxy model and the error models provides reliable predictions that approximate the full physics model's responses. The error model is tailored to the problem at hand by building it for the question of interest. It follows a typical approach in machine learning where both the full physics and proxy models are evaluated for a training set (subset of realizations) and the set of responses is used to construct the error model using functional data analysis. Once the error model is devised, a prediction of the full physics response for a new geostatistical realization can be obtained by computing the proxy response and applying the error model. We propose the use of functional error models in a Bayesian inference context by combining it to the Nested Sampling (Skilling 2006; El Sheikh et al. 2013, 2014). Nested Sampling offers a mean to compute the Bayesian Evidence by transforming the multidimensional integral into a 1D integral. The algorithm is simple: starting with an active set of samples, at each iteration, the sample with the lowest likelihood is kept aside and replaced by a sample of higher likelihood. The main challenge is to find this sample of higher likelihood. We suggest a new approach: first the active set is sampled, both proxy and full physics models are run and the functional error model is build. Then, at each iteration of the Nested

  1. Mathematical Model of the Laser Gyro Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Enin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the analysed and systemised results of the experimental study of laser gyro (LG errors. Determines a structure of the resulting LG error, as a linear combination of the random processes, characterizing natural and technical fluctuations of difference frequency of the counter-propagating waves, with a random constant zero shift available in the sensor readings. Formulates the requirements for the structure and form of the analytic description of the error model. Shows a generalized model of the LG fluctuation processes, on the basis of which a mathematical model of LG errors was developed as an inertial sensor.The model is represented by a system of the stochastic differential equations and functional relationships to characterize a resulting error of the sensor. The paper provides a correlation analysis of the model equations and final equations obtained for the mean-square values of the particular components, which allow us to identify the resulting error parameters. The model parameters are presented through the values of the power spectral density of the particular components. The discrete form of the model is considered, the convergence of continuous and difference equations is shown in fulfilling conditions of the limiting transition. Further research activities are defined.

  2. Parameters and error of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

    1986-09-01

    We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

  3. Analytic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models with input correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yueying; Wang, Qiuping A.; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu

    2018-03-01

    Probabilistic uncertainty analysis is a common means of evaluating mathematical models. In mathematical modeling, the uncertainty in input variables is specified through distribution laws. Its contribution to the uncertainty in model response is usually analyzed by assuming that input variables are independent of each other. However, correlated parameters are often happened in practical applications. In the present paper, an analytic method is built for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models in the presence of input correlations. With the method, it is straightforward to identify the importance of the independence and correlations of input variables in determining the model response. This allows one to decide whether or not the input correlations should be considered in practice. Numerical examples suggest the effectiveness and validation of our analytic method in the analysis of general models. A practical application of the method is also proposed to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a deterministic HIV model.

  4. Variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mara, Thierry A.; Tarantola, Stefano

    2012-01-01

    Computational models are intensively used in engineering for risk analysis or prediction of future outcomes. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in these purposes. Although several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs only a few are proposed in the literature in the case of dependent inputs. This is explained by the fact that the theoretical framework for the independent case is set and a univocal set of variance-based sensitivity indices is defined. In the present work, we propose a set of variance-based sensitivity indices to perform sensitivity analysis of models with dependent inputs. These measures allow us to distinguish between the mutual dependent contribution and the independent contribution of an input to the model response variance. Their definition relies on a specific orthogonalisation of the inputs and ANOVA-representations of the model output. In the applications, we show the interest of the new sensitivity indices for model simplification setting. - Highlights: ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in engineering. ► Several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs. ► We define a set of variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs. ► Inputs mutual contributions are distinguished from their independent contributions. ► Analytical and computational tests are performed and discussed.

  5. A New Open-Loop Fiber Optic Gyro Error Compensation Method Based on Angular Velocity Error Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanshun Zhang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available With the open-loop fiber optic gyro (OFOG model, output voltage and angular velocity can effectively compensate OFOG errors. However, the model cannot reflect the characteristics of OFOG errors well when it comes to pretty large dynamic angular velocities. This paper puts forward a modeling scheme with OFOG output voltage  and temperature  as the input variables and angular velocity error  as the output variable. Firstly, the angular velocity error  is extracted from OFOG output signals, and then the output voltage , temperature  and angular velocity error  are used as the learning samples to train a Radial-Basis-Function (RBF neural network model. Then the nonlinear mapping model over T,  and  is established and thus  can be calculated automatically to compensate OFOG errors according to  and . The results of the experiments show that the established model can be used to compensate the nonlinear OFOG errors. The maximum, the minimum and the mean square error of OFOG angular velocity are decreased by ,  and  relative to their initial values, respectively. Compared with the direct modeling of gyro angular velocity, which we researched before, the experimental results of the compensating method proposed in this paper are further reduced by ,  and , respectively, so the performance of this method is better than that of the direct modeling for gyro angular velocity.

  6. A new open-loop fiber optic gyro error compensation method based on angular velocity error modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yanshun; Guo, Yajing; Li, Chunyu; Wang, Yixin; Wang, Zhanqing

    2015-02-27

    With the open-loop fiber optic gyro (OFOG) model, output voltage and angular velocity can effectively compensate OFOG errors. However, the model cannot reflect the characteristics of OFOG errors well when it comes to pretty large dynamic angular velocities. This paper puts forward a modeling scheme with OFOG output voltage u and temperature T as the input variables and angular velocity error Δω as the output variable. Firstly, the angular velocity error Δω is extracted from OFOG output signals, and then the output voltage u, temperature T and angular velocity error Δω are used as the learning samples to train a Radial-Basis-Function (RBF) neural network model. Then the nonlinear mapping model over T, u and Δω is established and thus Δω can be calculated automatically to compensate OFOG errors according to T and u. The results of the experiments show that the established model can be used to compensate the nonlinear OFOG errors. The maximum, the minimum and the mean square error of OFOG angular velocity are decreased by 97.0%, 97.1% and 96.5% relative to their initial values, respectively. Compared with the direct modeling of gyro angular velocity, which we researched before, the experimental results of the compensating method proposed in this paper are further reduced by 1.6%, 1.4% and 1.42%, respectively, so the performance of this method is better than that of the direct modeling for gyro angular velocity.

  7. Soft error mechanisms, modeling and mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Sayil, Selahattin

    2016-01-01

    This book introduces readers to various radiation soft-error mechanisms such as soft delays, radiation induced clock jitter and pulses, and single event (SE) coupling induced effects. In addition to discussing various radiation hardening techniques for combinational logic, the author also describes new mitigation strategies targeting commercial designs. Coverage includes novel soft error mitigation techniques such as the Dynamic Threshold Technique and Soft Error Filtering based on Transmission gate with varied gate and body bias. The discussion also includes modeling of SE crosstalk noise, delay and speed-up effects. Various mitigation strategies to eliminate SE coupling effects are also introduced. Coverage also includes the reliability of low power energy-efficient designs and the impact of leakage power consumption optimizations on soft error robustness. The author presents an analysis of various power optimization techniques, enabling readers to make design choices that reduce static power consumption an...

  8. Error modeling of DEMs from topographic surveys of rivers using fuzzy inference systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangen, Sara; Hensleigh, James; McHugh, Peter; Wheaton, Joseph

    2016-02-01

    Digital elevation models (DEMs) have become common place in the earth sciences as a tool to characterize surface topography and set modeling boundary conditions. All DEMs have a degree of inherent error that is propagated to subsequent models and analyses. While previous research has shown that DEM error is spatially variable it is often represented as spatially uniform for analytical simplicity. Fuzzy inference systems (FIS) offer a tractable approach for modeling spatially variable DEM error, including flexibility in the number of inputs and calibration of outputs based on survey technique and modeling environment. We compare three FIS error models for DEMs derived from TS surveys of wadeable streams and test them at 34 sites in the Columbia River basin. The models differ in complexity regarding the number/type of inputs and degree of site-specific parameterization. A 2-input FIS uses inputs derived from the topographic point cloud (slope, point density). A 4-input FIS adds interpolation error and 3-D point quality. The 5-input FIS adds bed-surface roughness estimates. Both the 4 and 5-input FIS model output were parameterized to site-specific values. In the wetted channel we found (i) the 5-input FIS resulted in lower mean δz due to including roughness, and (ii) the 4 and 5-input FIS resulted in a higher standard deviation and maximum δz due to the inclusion of site-specific bank heights. All three FIS gave plausible estimates of DEM error, with the two more complicated models offering an improvement in the ability to detect spatially localized areas of DEM uncertainty.

  9. A didactic Input-Output model for territorial ecology analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Garry Mcdonald

    2010-01-01

    This report describes a didactic input-output modelling framework created jointly be the team at REEDS, Universite de Versailles and Dr Garry McDonald, Director, Market Economics Ltd. There are three key outputs associated with this framework: (i) a suite of didactic input-output models developed in Microsoft Excel, (ii) a technical report (this report) which describes the framework and the suite of models1, and (iii) a two week intensive workshop dedicated to the training of REEDS researcher...

  10. Multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekwe, Carmen D; Carter, Randy L; Cullings, Harry M; Carroll, Raymond J

    2014-11-10

    Multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) models are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times, however, when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this paper are as follows: (i) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow both Berkson and classical measurement errors, defining the MIMIC measurement error (MIMIC ME) model; (ii) to develop likelihood-based estimation methods for the MIMIC ME model; and (iii) to apply the newly defined MIMIC ME model to atomic bomb survivor data to study the impact of dyslipidemia and radiation dose on the physical manifestations of dyslipidemia. As a by-product of our work, we also obtain a data-driven estimate of the variance of the classical measurement error associated with an estimate of the amount of radiation dose received by atomic bomb survivors at the time of their exposure. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Calibration of uncertain inputs to computer models using experimentally measured quantities and the BMARS emulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stripling, H.F.; McClarren, R.G.; Kuranz, C.C.; Grosskopf, M.J.; Rutter, E.; Torralva, B.R.

    2011-01-01

    We present a method for calibrating the uncertain inputs to a computer model using available experimental data. The goal of the procedure is to produce posterior distributions of the uncertain inputs such that when samples from the posteriors are used as inputs to future model runs, the model is more likely to replicate (or predict) the experimental response. The calibration is performed by sampling the space of the uncertain inputs, using the computer model (or, more likely, an emulator for the computer model) to assign weights to the samples, and applying the weights to produce the posterior distributions and generate predictions of new experiments within confidence bounds. The method is similar to the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) calibration methods with independent sampling with the exception that we generate samples beforehand and replace the candidate acceptance routine with a weighting scheme. We apply our method to the calibration of a Hyades 2D model of laser energy deposition in beryllium. We employ a Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (BMARS) emulator as a surrogate for Hyades 2D. We treat a range of uncertainties in our system, including uncertainties in the experimental inputs, experimental measurement error, and systematic experimental timing errors. The results of the calibration are posterior distributions that both agree with intuition and improve the accuracy and decrease the uncertainty in experimental predictions. (author)

  12. Prediction error, ketamine and psychosis: An updated model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlett, Philip R; Honey, Garry D; Fletcher, Paul C

    2016-11-01

    In 2007, we proposed an explanation of delusion formation as aberrant prediction error-driven associative learning. Further, we argued that the NMDA receptor antagonist ketamine provided a good model for this process. Subsequently, we validated the model in patients with psychosis, relating aberrant prediction error signals to delusion severity. During the ensuing period, we have developed these ideas, drawing on the simple principle that brains build a model of the world and refine it by minimising prediction errors, as well as using it to guide perceptual inferences. While previously we focused on the prediction error signal per se, an updated view takes into account its precision, as well as the precision of prior expectations. With this expanded perspective, we see several possible routes to psychotic symptoms - which may explain the heterogeneity of psychotic illness, as well as the fact that other drugs, with different pharmacological actions, can produce psychotomimetic effects. In this article, we review the basic principles of this model and highlight specific ways in which prediction errors can be perturbed, in particular considering the reliability and uncertainty of predictions. The expanded model explains hallucinations as perturbations of the uncertainty mediated balance between expectation and prediction error. Here, expectations dominate and create perceptions by suppressing or ignoring actual inputs. Negative symptoms may arise due to poor reliability of predictions in service of action. By mapping from biology to belief and perception, the account proffers new explanations of psychosis. However, challenges remain. We attempt to address some of these concerns and suggest future directions, incorporating other symptoms into the model, building towards better understanding of psychosis. © The Author(s) 2016.

  13. Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu

    2009-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.

  14. Computer supported estimation of input data for transportation models

    OpenAIRE

    Cenek, Petr; Tarábek, Peter; Kopf, Marija

    2010-01-01

    Control and management of transportation systems frequently rely on optimization or simulation methods based on a suitable model. Such a model uses optimization or simulation procedures and correct input data. The input data define transportation infrastructure and transportation flows. Data acquisition is a costly process and so an efficient approach is highly desirable. The infrastructure can be recognized from drawn maps using segmentation, thinning and vectorization. The accurate definiti...

  15. Applications of flocking algorithms to input modeling for agent movement

    OpenAIRE

    Singham, Dashi; Therkildsen, Meredith; Schruben, Lee

    2011-01-01

    Refereed Conference Paper The article of record as published can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2011.6147953 Simulation flocking has been introduced as a method for generating simulation input from multivariate dependent time series for sensitivity and risk analysis. It can be applied to data for which a parametric model is not readily available or imposes too many restrictions on the possible inputs. This method uses techniques from agent-based modeling to generate ...

  16. Space market model space industry input-output model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgin, Robert F.; Marchesini, Roberto

    1987-01-01

    The goal of the Space Market Model (SMM) is to develop an information resource for the space industry. The SMM is intended to contain information appropriate for decision making in the space industry. The objectives of the SMM are to: (1) assemble information related to the development of the space business; (2) construct an adequate description of the emerging space market; (3) disseminate the information on the space market to forecasts and planners in government agencies and private corporations; and (4) provide timely analyses and forecasts of critical elements of the space market. An Input-Output model of market activity is proposed which are capable of transforming raw data into useful information for decision makers and policy makers dealing with the space sector.

  17. Understanding error generation in fused deposition modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochmann, Lennart; Transchel, Robert; Wegener, Konrad; Bayley, Cindy; Helu, Moneer; Dornfeld, David

    2015-01-01

    Additive manufacturing offers completely new possibilities for the manufacturing of parts. The advantages of flexibility and convenience of additive manufacturing have had a significant impact on many industries, and optimizing part quality is crucial for expanding its utilization. This research aims to determine the sources of imprecision in fused deposition modeling (FDM). Process errors in terms of surface quality, accuracy and precision are identified and quantified, and an error-budget approach is used to characterize errors of the machine tool. It was determined that accuracy and precision in the y direction (0.08–0.30 mm) are generally greater than in the x direction (0.12–0.62 mm) and the z direction (0.21–0.57 mm). Furthermore, accuracy and precision tend to decrease at increasing axis positions. The results of this work can be used to identify possible process improvements in the design and control of FDM technology. (paper)

  18. Understanding error generation in fused deposition modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochmann, Lennart; Bayley, Cindy; Helu, Moneer; Transchel, Robert; Wegener, Konrad; Dornfeld, David

    2015-03-01

    Additive manufacturing offers completely new possibilities for the manufacturing of parts. The advantages of flexibility and convenience of additive manufacturing have had a significant impact on many industries, and optimizing part quality is crucial for expanding its utilization. This research aims to determine the sources of imprecision in fused deposition modeling (FDM). Process errors in terms of surface quality, accuracy and precision are identified and quantified, and an error-budget approach is used to characterize errors of the machine tool. It was determined that accuracy and precision in the y direction (0.08-0.30 mm) are generally greater than in the x direction (0.12-0.62 mm) and the z direction (0.21-0.57 mm). Furthermore, accuracy and precision tend to decrease at increasing axis positions. The results of this work can be used to identify possible process improvements in the design and control of FDM technology.

  19. Nonclassical measurements errors in nonlinear models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Edith; Mulalic, Ismir

    that contains very detailed information about incomes. This gives a unique opportunity to learn about the magnitude and nature of the measurement error in income reported by the respondents in the Danish NTS compared to income from the administrative register (correct measure). We find that the classical...... of a households face. In this case an important policy parameter is the effect of income (reflecting the household budget) on the choice of travel mode. This paper deals with the consequences of measurement error in income (an explanatory variable) in discrete choice models. Since it is likely to give misleading...... estimates of the income effect it is of interest to investigate the magnitude of the estimation bias and if possible use estimation techniques that take the measurement error problem into account. We use data from the Danish National Travel Survey (NTS) and merge it with administrative register data...

  20. Computer Input Devices: Neutral Party or Source of Significant Error in Manual Lesion Segmentation?

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, James Y.; Seagull, F. Jacob; Nagy, Paul; Lakhani, Paras; Melhem, Elias R.; Siegel, Eliot L.; Safdar, Nabile M.

    2010-01-01

    Lesion segmentation involves outlining the contour of an abnormality on an image to distinguish boundaries between normal and abnormal tissue and is essential to track malignant and benign disease in medical imaging for clinical, research, and treatment purposes. A laser optical mouse and a graphics tablet were used by radiologists to segment 12 simulated reference lesions per subject in two groups (one group comprised three lesion morphologies in two sizes, one for each input device for each...

  1. Hebbian errors in learning: an analysis using the Oja model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rădulescu, Anca; Cox, Kingsley; Adams, Paul

    2009-06-21

    Recent work on long term potentiation in brain slices shows that Hebb's rule is not completely synapse-specific, probably due to intersynapse diffusion of calcium or other factors. We previously suggested that such errors in Hebbian learning might be analogous to mutations in evolution. We examine this proposal quantitatively, extending the classical Oja unsupervised model of learning by a single linear neuron to include Hebbian inspecificity. We introduce an error matrix E, which expresses possible crosstalk between updating at different connections. When there is no inspecificity, this gives the classical result of convergence to the first principal component of the input distribution (PC1). We show the modified algorithm converges to the leading eigenvector of the matrix EC, where C is the input covariance matrix. In the most biologically plausible case when there are no intrinsically privileged connections, E has diagonal elements Q and off-diagonal elements (1-Q)/(n-1), where Q, the quality, is expected to decrease with the number of inputs n and with a synaptic parameter b that reflects synapse density, calcium diffusion, etc. We study the dependence of the learning accuracy on b, n and the amount of input activity or correlation (analytically and computationally). We find that accuracy increases (learning becomes gradually less useful) with increases in b, particularly for intermediate (i.e., biologically realistic) correlation strength, although some useful learning always occurs up to the trivial limit Q=1/n. We discuss the relation of our results to Hebbian unsupervised learning in the brain. When the mechanism lacks specificity, the network fails to learn the expected, and typically most useful, result, especially when the input correlation is weak. Hebbian crosstalk would reflect the very high density of synapses along dendrites, and inevitably degrades learning.

  2. Effect of GPS errors on Emission model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehmann, Anders; Gross, Allan

    n this paper we will show how Global Positioning Services (GPS) data obtained from smartphones can be used to model air quality in urban settings. The paper examines the uncertainty of smartphone location utilising GPS, and ties this location uncertainty to air quality models. The results presented...... in this paper indicates that the location error from using smartphones is within the accuracy needed to use the location data in air quality modelling. The nature of smartphone location data enables more accurate and near real time air quality modelling and monitoring. The location data is harvested from user...

  3. Bayesian tsunami fragility modeling considering input data uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    De Risi, Raffaele; Goda, Katsu; Mori, Nobuhito; Yasuda, Tomohiro

    2017-01-01

    Empirical tsunami fragility curves are developed based on a Bayesian framework by accounting for uncertainty of input tsunami hazard data in a systematic and comprehensive manner. Three fragility modeling approaches, i.e. lognormal method, binomial logistic method, and multinomial logistic method, are considered, and are applied to extensive tsunami damage data for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. A unique aspect of this study is that uncertainty of tsunami inundation data (i.e. input hazard data ...

  4. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  5. Computational Techniques for Model Predictive Control of Large-Scale Systems with Continuous-Valued and Discrete-Valued Inputs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koichi Kobayashi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose computational techniques for model predictive control of large-scale systems with both continuous-valued control inputs and discrete-valued control inputs, which are a class of hybrid systems. In the proposed method, we introduce the notion of virtual control inputs, which are obtained by relaxing discrete-valued control inputs to continuous variables. In online computation, first, we find continuous-valued control inputs and virtual control inputs minimizing a cost function. Next, using the obtained virtual control inputs, only discrete-valued control inputs at the current time are computed in each subsystem. In addition, we also discuss the effect of quantization errors. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is shown by a numerical example. The proposed method enables us to reduce and decentralize the computation load.

  6. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  7. Quality assurance of weather data for agricultural system model input

    Science.gov (United States)

    It is well known that crop production and hydrologic variation on watersheds is weather related. Rarely, however, is meteorological data quality checks reported for agricultural systems model research. We present quality assurance procedures for agricultural system model weather data input. Problems...

  8. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception

  9. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-10

    This analysis is one of 10 reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception.

  10. Assessment of input function distortions on kinetic model parameters in simulated dynamic 82Rb PET perfusion studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, Carsten; Peligrad, Dragos-Nicolae; Weibrecht, Martin

    2007-01-01

    Cardiac 82 rubidium dynamic PET studies allow quantifying absolute myocardial perfusion by using tracer kinetic modeling. Here, the accurate measurement of the input function, i.e. the tracer concentration in blood plasma, is a major challenge. This measurement is deteriorated by inappropriate temporal sampling, spillover, etc. Such effects may influence the measured input peak value and the measured blood pool clearance. The aim of our study is to evaluate the effect of input function distortions on the myocardial perfusion as estimated by the model. To this end, we simulate noise-free myocardium time activity curves (TACs) with a two-compartment kinetic model. The input function to the model is a generic analytical function. Distortions of this function have been introduced by varying its parameters. Using the distorted input function, the compartment model has been fitted to the simulated myocardium TAC. This analysis has been performed for various sets of model parameters covering a physiologically relevant range. The evaluation shows that ±10% error in the input peak value can easily lead to ±10-25% error in the model parameter K 1 , which relates to myocardial perfusion. Variations in the input function tail are generally less relevant. We conclude that an accurate estimation especially of the plasma input peak is crucial for a reliable kinetic analysis and blood flow estimation

  11. Modeling error distributions of growth curve models through Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyong

    2016-06-01

    Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is proposed to flexibly model normal and non-normal data through the explicit specification of the error distributions. A simulation study shows when the distribution of the error is correctly specified, one can avoid the loss in the efficiency of standard error estimates. A real example on the analysis of mathematical ability growth data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 is used to show the application of the proposed methods. Instructions and code on how to conduct growth curve analysis with both normal and non-normal error distributions using the the MCMC procedure of SAS are provided.

  12. Investigation of RADTRAN Stop Model input parameters for truck stops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griego, N.R.; Smith, J.D.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN is a computer code for estimating the risks and consequences as transport of radioactive materials (RAM). RADTRAN was developed and is maintained by Sandia National Laboratories for the US Department of Energy (DOE). For incident-free transportation, the dose to persons exposed while the shipment is stopped is frequently a major percentage of the overall dose. This dose is referred to as Stop Dose and is calculated by the Stop Model. Because stop dose is a significant portion of the overall dose associated with RAM transport, the values used as input for the Stop Model are important. Therefore, an investigation of typical values for RADTRAN Stop Parameters for truck stops was performed. The resulting data from these investigations were analyzed to provide mean values, standard deviations, and histograms. Hence, the mean values can be used when an analyst does not have a basis for selecting other input values for the Stop Model. In addition, the histograms and their characteristics can be used to guide statistical sampling techniques to measure sensitivity of the RADTRAN calculated Stop Dose to the uncertainties in the stop model input parameters. This paper discusses the details and presents the results of the investigation of stop model input parameters at truck stops

  13. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  14. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  15. Varying coefficients model with measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Liang; Greene, Tom

    2008-06-01

    We propose a semiparametric partially varying coefficient model to study the relationship between serum creatinine concentration and the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) among kidney donors and patients with chronic kidney disease. A regression model is used to relate serum creatinine to GFR and demographic factors in which coefficient of GFR is expressed as a function of age to allow its effect to be age dependent. GFR measurements obtained from the clearance of a radioactively labeled isotope are assumed to be a surrogate for the true GFR, with the relationship between measured and true GFR expressed using an additive error model. We use locally corrected score equations to estimate parameters and coefficient functions, and propose an expected generalized cross-validation (EGCV) method to select the kernel bandwidth. The performance of the proposed methods, which avoid distributional assumptions on the true GFR and residuals, is investigated by simulation. Accounting for measurement error using the proposed model reduced apparent inconsistencies in the relationship between serum creatinine and GFR among different clinical data sets derived from kidney donor and chronic kidney disease source populations.

  16. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  17. Analysis of error-prone survival data under additive hazards models: measurement error effects and adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ying; Yi, Grace Y

    2016-07-01

    Covariate measurement error occurs commonly in survival analysis. Under the proportional hazards model, measurement error effects have been well studied, and various inference methods have been developed to correct for error effects under such a model. In contrast, error-contaminated survival data under the additive hazards model have received relatively less attention. In this paper, we investigate this problem by exploring measurement error effects on parameter estimation and the change of the hazard function. New insights of measurement error effects are revealed, as opposed to well-documented results for the Cox proportional hazards model. We propose a class of bias correction estimators that embraces certain existing estimators as special cases. In addition, we exploit the regression calibration method to reduce measurement error effects. Theoretical results for the developed methods are established, and numerical assessments are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of our methods.

  18. Modeling human response errors in synthetic flight simulator domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntuen, Celestine A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a control theoretic approach to modeling human response errors (HRE) in the flight simulation domain. The human pilot is modeled as a supervisor of a highly automated system. The synthesis uses the theory of optimal control pilot modeling for integrating the pilot's observation error and the error due to the simulation model (experimental error). Methods for solving the HRE problem are suggested. Experimental verification of the models will be tested in a flight quality handling simulation.

  19. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This report is concerned primarily with the

  20. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2006-06-05

    This analysis is one of the technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), referred to in this report as the biosphere model. ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents development of input parameters for the biosphere model that are related to atmospheric mass loading and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'' is one of five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1 (based on BSC 2006 [DIRS 176938]). This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling and how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling. This analysis report defines and justifies values of atmospheric mass loading for the biosphere model. Mass loading is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Mass loading values are used in the air submodel of the biosphere model to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air inhaled by a receptor and concentrations in air surrounding crops. Concentrations in air to which the receptor is exposed are then used in the inhalation submodel to calculate the dose contribution to the receptor from inhalation of contaminated airborne particles. Concentrations in air surrounding plants are used in the plant submodel to calculate the concentrations of radionuclides in foodstuffs contributed from uptake by foliar interception. This

  1. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air inhaled by a receptor. Concentrations in air to which the

  2. Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-09-24

    This analysis is one of the nine reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003a) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. This report documents a set of input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for a Yucca Mountain repository. This report, ''Inhalation Exposure Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003b). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available at that time. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this analysis report. This analysis report defines and justifies values of mass loading, which is the total mass concentration of resuspended particles (e.g., dust, ash) in a volume of air. Measurements of mass loading are used in the air submodel of ERMYN to calculate concentrations of radionuclides in air surrounding crops and concentrations in air

  3. Error Propagation in Equations for Geochemical Modeling of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents error propagation equations for modeling of radiogenic isotopes during mixing of two components or end-members. These equations can be used to estimate errors on an isotopic ratio in the mixture of two components, as a function of the analytical errors or the total errors of geological field sampling ...

  4. the sensitivity of evapotranspiration models to errors in model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    ABSTRACT. Five evapotranspiration (Et) model-the penman, Blaney - Criddel, Thornthwaite, the Blaney –. Morin-Nigeria, and the Jensen and Haise models – were analyzed for parameter sensitivity under Nigerian Climatic conditions. The sensitivity of each model to errors in any of its measured parameters (variables) was ...

  5. Measurement Model Specification Error in LISREL Structural Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Beatrice; Lomax, Richard

    This LISREL study examines the robustness of the maximum likelihood estimates under varying degrees of measurement model misspecification. A true model containing five latent variables (two endogenous and three exogenous) and two indicator variables per latent variable was used. Measurement model misspecification considered included errors of…

  6. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  7. Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Q. Wan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963 equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data."

    On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM, including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

  8. Applications of Flocking Algorithms to Input Modeling for Agent Movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    2445 Singham, Therkildsen, and Schruben We apply the following flocking algorithm to this leading boid to generate followers, who will then be mapped...due to the paths crossing. 2447 Singham, Therkildsen, and Schruben Figure 2: Plot of the path of a boid generated by the Group 4 flocking algorithm ...on the possible inputs. This method uses techniques from agent-based modeling to generate a flock of boids that follow the data. In this paper, we

  9. How well can we forecast future model error and uncertainty by mining past model performance data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomatine, Dimitri

    2016-04-01

    Consider a hydrological model Y(t) = M(X(t), P), where X=vector of inputs; P=vector of parameters; Y=model output (typically flow); t=time. In cases when there is enough past data on the model M performance, it is possible to use this data to build a (data-driven) model EC of model M error. This model EC will be able to forecast error E when a new input X is fed into model M; then subtracting E from the model prediction Y a better estimate of Y can be obtained. Model EC is usually called the error corrector (in meteorology - a bias corrector). However, we may go further in characterizing model deficiencies, and instead of using the error (a real value) we may consider a more sophisticated characterization, namely a probabilistic one. So instead of rather a model EC of the model M error it is also possible to build a model U of model M uncertainty; if uncertainty is described as the model error distribution D this model will calculate its properties - mean, variance, other moments, and quantiles. The general form of this model could be: D = U (RV), where RV=vector of relevant variables having influence on model uncertainty (to be identified e.g. by mutual information analysis); D=vector of variables characterizing the error distribution (typically, two or more quantiles). There is one aspect which is not always explicitly mentioned in uncertainty analysis work. In our view it is important to distinguish the following main types of model uncertainty: 1. The residual uncertainty of models. In this case the model parameters and/or model inputs are considered to be fixed (deterministic), i.e. the model is considered to be optimal (calibrated) and deterministic. Model error is considered as the manifestation of uncertainty. If there is enough past data about the model errors (i.e. its uncertainty), it is possible to build a statistical or machine learning model of uncertainty trained on this data. Here the following methods can be mentioned: (a) quantile regression (QR

  10. A generic method for automatic translation between input models for different versions of simulation codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serfontein, Dawid E.; Mulder, Eben J.; Reitsma, Frederik

    2014-01-01

    A computer code was developed for the semi-automatic translation of input models for the VSOP-A diffusion neutronics simulation code to the format of the newer VSOP 99/05 code. In this paper, this algorithm is presented as a generic method for producing codes for the automatic translation of input models from the format of one code version to another, or even to that of a completely different code. Normally, such translations are done manually. However, input model files, such as for the VSOP codes, often are very large and may consist of many thousands of numeric entries that make no particular sense to the human eye. Therefore the task, of for instance nuclear regulators, to verify the accuracy of such translated files can be very difficult and cumbersome. This may cause translation errors not to be picked up, which may have disastrous consequences later on when a reactor with such a faulty design is built. Therefore a generic algorithm for producing such automatic translation codes may ease the translation and verification process to a great extent. It will also remove human error from the process, which may significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of the process. The developed algorithm also automatically creates a verification log file which permanently record the names and values of each variable used, as well as the list of meanings of all the possible values. This should greatly facilitate reactor licensing applications

  11. Soil-related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A. J. Smith

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of the technical reports containing documentation of the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN biosphere model is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the plan for development of the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2003 [163602]). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development at the time this report is issued and therefore not available. This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. ''The Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes in detail the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and its input parameters. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters needed to evaluate doses from pathways associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation and ash

  12. Structural Model Error and Decision Relevancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsby, M.; Lusk, G.

    2017-12-01

    The extent to which climate models can underwrite specific climate policies has long been a contentious issue. Skeptics frequently deny that climate models are trustworthy in an attempt to undermine climate action, whereas policy makers often desire information that exceeds the capabilities of extant models. While not skeptics, a group of mathematicians and philosophers [Frigg et al. (2014)] recently argued that even tiny differences between the structure of a complex dynamical model and its target system can lead to dramatic predictive errors, possibly resulting in disastrous consequences when policy decisions are based upon those predictions. They call this result the Hawkmoth effect (HME), and seemingly use it to rebuke rightwing proposals to forgo mitigation in favor of adaptation. However, a vigorous debate has emerged between Frigg et al. on one side and another philosopher-mathematician pair [Winsberg and Goodwin (2016)] on the other. On one hand, Frigg et al. argue that their result shifts the burden to climate scientists to demonstrate that their models do not fall prey to the HME. On the other hand, Winsberg and Goodwin suggest that arguments like those asserted by Frigg et al. can be, if taken seriously, "dangerous": they fail to consider the variety of purposes for which models can be used, and thus too hastily undermine large swaths of climate science. They put the burden back on Frigg et al. to show their result has any effect on climate science. This paper seeks to attenuate this debate by establishing an irenic middle position; we find that there is more agreement between sides than it first seems. We distinguish a `decision standard' from a `burden of proof', which helps clarify the contributions to the debate from both sides. In making this distinction, we argue that scientists bear the burden of assessing the consequences of HME, but that the standard Frigg et al. adopt for decision relevancy is too strict.

  13. Modeling Errors in Daily Precipitation Measurements: Additive or Multiplicative?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Tang, Ling; Sapiano, Matthew; Maggioni, Viviana; Wu, Huan

    2013-01-01

    The definition and quantification of uncertainty depend on the error model used. For uncertainties in precipitation measurements, two types of error models have been widely adopted: the additive error model and the multiplicative error model. This leads to incompatible specifications of uncertainties and impedes intercomparison and application.In this letter, we assess the suitability of both models for satellite-based daily precipitation measurements in an effort to clarify the uncertainty representation. Three criteria were employed to evaluate the applicability of either model: (1) better separation of the systematic and random errors; (2) applicability to the large range of variability in daily precipitation; and (3) better predictive skills. It is found that the multiplicative error model is a much better choice under all three criteria. It extracted the systematic errors more cleanly, was more consistent with the large variability of precipitation measurements, and produced superior predictions of the error characteristics. The additive error model had several weaknesses, such as non constant variance resulting from systematic errors leaking into random errors, and the lack of prediction capability. Therefore, the multiplicative error model is a better choice.

  14. A stochastic model of input effectiveness during irregular gamma rhythms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, Grégory; Northoff, Georg; Longtin, André

    2016-02-01

    Gamma-band synchronization has been linked to attention and communication between brain regions, yet the underlying dynamical mechanisms are still unclear. How does the timing and amplitude of inputs to cells that generate an endogenously noisy gamma rhythm affect the network activity and rhythm? How does such "communication through coherence" (CTC) survive in the face of rhythm and input variability? We present a stochastic modelling approach to this question that yields a very fast computation of the effectiveness of inputs to cells involved in gamma rhythms. Our work is partly motivated by recent optogenetic experiments (Cardin et al. Nature, 459(7247), 663-667 2009) that tested the gamma phase-dependence of network responses by first stabilizing the rhythm with periodic light pulses to the interneurons (I). Our computationally efficient model E-I network of stochastic two-state neurons exhibits finite-size fluctuations. Using the Hilbert transform and Kuramoto index, we study how the stochastic phase of its gamma rhythm is entrained by external pulses. We then compute how this rhythmic inhibition controls the effectiveness of external input onto pyramidal (E) cells, and how variability shapes the window of firing opportunity. For transferring the time variations of an external input to the E cells, we find a tradeoff between the phase selectivity and depth of rate modulation. We also show that the CTC is sensitive to the jitter in the arrival times of spikes to the E cells, and to the degree of I-cell entrainment. We further find that CTC can occur even if the underlying deterministic system does not oscillate; quasicycle-type rhythms induced by the finite-size noise retain the basic CTC properties. Finally a resonance analysis confirms the relative importance of the I cell pacing for rhythm generation. Analysis of whole network behaviour, including computations of synchrony, phase and shifts in excitatory-inhibitory balance, can be further sped up by orders of

  15. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  16. A one-model approach based on relaxed combinations of inputs for evaluating input congestion in DEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodabakhshi, Mohammad

    2009-08-01

    This paper provides a one-model approach of input congestion based on input relaxation model developed in data envelopment analysis (e.g. [G.R. Jahanshahloo, M. Khodabakhshi, Suitable combination of inputs for improving outputs in DEA with determining input congestion -- Considering textile industry of China, Applied Mathematics and Computation (1) (2004) 263-273; G.R. Jahanshahloo, M. Khodabakhshi, Determining assurance interval for non-Archimedean ele improving outputs model in DEA, Applied Mathematics and Computation 151 (2) (2004) 501-506; M. Khodabakhshi, A super-efficiency model based on improved outputs in data envelopment analysis, Applied Mathematics and Computation 184 (2) (2007) 695-703; M. Khodabakhshi, M. Asgharian, An input relaxation measure of efficiency in stochastic data analysis, Applied Mathematical Modelling 33 (2009) 2010-2023]. This approach reduces solving three problems with the two-model approach introduced in the first of the above-mentioned reference to two problems which is certainly important from computational point of view. The model is applied to a set of data extracted from ISI database to estimate input congestion of 12 Canadian business schools.

  17. Scaling precipitation input to spatially distributed hydrological models by measured snow distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Vögeli

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate knowledge on snow distribution in alpine terrain is crucial for various applicationssuch as flood risk assessment, avalanche warning or managing water supply and hydro-power.To simulate the seasonal snow cover development in alpine terrain, the spatially distributed,physics-based model Alpine3D is suitable. The model is typically driven by spatial interpolationsof observations from automatic weather stations (AWS, leading to errors in the spatial distributionof atmospheric forcing. With recent advances in remote sensing techniques, maps of snowdepth can be acquired with high spatial resolution and accuracy. In this work, maps of the snowdepth distribution, calculated from summer and winter digital surface models based on AirborneDigital Sensors (ADS, are used to scale precipitation input data, with the aim to improve theaccuracy of simulation of the spatial distribution of snow with Alpine3D. A simple method toscale and redistribute precipitation is presented and the performance is analysed. The scalingmethod is only applied if it is snowing. For rainfall the precipitation is distributed by interpolation,with a simple air temperature threshold used for the determination of the precipitation phase.It was found that the accuracy of spatial snow distribution could be improved significantly forthe simulated domain. The standard deviation of absolute snow depth error is reduced up toa factor 3.4 to less than 20 cm. The mean absolute error in snow distribution was reducedwhen using representative input sources for the simulation domain. For inter-annual scaling, themodel performance could also be improved, even when using a remote sensing dataset from adifferent winter. In conclusion, using remote sensing data to process precipitation input, complexprocesses such as preferential snow deposition and snow relocation due to wind or avalanches,can be substituted and modelling performance of spatial snow distribution is improved.

  18. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A. J.

    2004-01-01

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure was defined as AP-SIII.9Q, ''Scientific Analyses''. This

  19. Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. J. Smith

    2004-09-09

    This report presents one of the analyses that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the details of the conceptual model as well as the mathematical model and the required input parameters. The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the postclosure Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain repository. A schematic representation of the documentation flow for the Biosphere input to TSPA is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the evolutionary relationships among the products (i.e., analysis and model reports) developed for biosphere modeling, and the biosphere abstraction products for TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). This figure is included to provide an understanding of how this analysis report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application, and is not intended to imply that access to the listed documents is required to understand the contents of this report. This report, ''Soil-Related Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five analysis reports that develop input parameters for use in the ERMYN model. This report is the source documentation for the six biosphere parameters identified in Table 1-1. The purpose of this analysis was to develop the biosphere model parameters associated with the accumulation and depletion of radionuclides in the soil. These parameters support the calculation of radionuclide concentrations in soil from on-going irrigation or ash deposition and, as a direct consequence, radionuclide concentration in other environmental media that are affected by radionuclide concentrations in soil. The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) where the governing procedure

  20. Remotely sensed soil moisture input to a hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engman, E. T.; Kustas, W. P.; Wang, J. R.

    1989-01-01

    The possibility of using detailed spatial soil moisture maps as input to a runoff model was investigated. The water balance of a small drainage basin was simulated using a simple storage model. Aircraft microwave measurements of soil moisture were used to construct two-dimensional maps of the spatial distribution of the soil moisture. Data from overflights on different dates provided the temporal changes resulting from soil drainage and evapotranspiration. The study site and data collection are described, and the soil measurement data are given. The model selection is discussed, and the simulation results are summarized. It is concluded that a time series of soil moisture is a valuable new type of data for verifying model performance and for updating and correcting simulated streamflow.

  1. VOLUMETRIC ERROR COMPENSATION IN FIVE-AXIS CNC MACHINING CENTER THROUGH KINEMATICS MODELING OF GEOMETRIC ERROR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pooyan Vahidi Pashsaki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Accuracy of a five-axis CNC machine tool is affected by a vast number of error sources. This paper investigates volumetric error modeling and its compensation to the basis for creation of new tool path for improvement of work pieces accuracy. The volumetric error model of a five-axis machine tool with the configuration RTTTR (tilting head B-axis and rotary table in work piece side A΄ was set up taking into consideration rigid body kinematics and homogeneous transformation matrix, in which 43 error components are included. Volumetric error comprises 43 error components that can separately reduce geometrical and dimensional accuracy of work pieces. The machining accuracy of work piece is guaranteed due to the position of the cutting tool center point (TCP relative to the work piece. The cutting tool is deviated from its ideal position relative to the work piece and machining error is experienced. For compensation process detection of the present tool path and analysis of the RTTTR five-axis CNC machine tools geometrical error, translating current position of component to compensated positions using the Kinematics error model, converting newly created component to new tool paths using the compensation algorithms and finally editing old G-codes using G-code generator algorithm have been employed.

  2. Precipitation forecasts and their uncertainty as input into hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kobold

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Torrential streams and fast runoff are characteristic of most Slovenian rivers and extensive damage is caused almost every year by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia. Rainfall-runoff models which are tools for runoff calculation can be used for flood forecasting. In Slovenia, the lag time between rainfall and runoff is only a few hours and on-line data are used only for now-casting. Predicted precipitation is necessary in flood forecasting some days ahead. The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model gives general forecasts several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with the ALADIN/SI model are available for two days ahead. Combining the weather forecasts with the information on catchment conditions and a hydrological forecasting model can give advance warning of potential flooding notwithstanding a certain degree of uncertainty in using precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. Analysis of the sensitivity of the hydrological model to the rainfall error has shown that the deviation in runoff is much larger than the rainfall deviation. Therefore, verification of predicted precipitation for large precipitation events was performed with the ECMWF model. Measured precipitation data were interpolated on a regular grid and compared with the results from the ECMWF model. The deviation in predicted precipitation from interpolated measurements is shown with the model bias resulting from the inability of the model to predict the precipitation correctly and a bias for horizontal resolution of the model and natural variability of precipitation.

  3. Comprehensive Information Retrieval and Model Input Sequence (CIRMIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedrichs, D.R.

    1977-04-01

    The Comprehensive Information Retrieval and Model Input Sequence (CIRMIS) was developed to provide the research scientist with man--machine interactive capabilities in a real-time environment, and thereby produce results more quickly and efficiently. The CIRMIS system was originally developed to increase data storage and retrieval capabilities and ground-water model control for the Hanford site. The overall configuration, however, can be used in other areas. The CIRMIS system provides the user with three major functions: retrieval of well-based data, special application for manipulating surface data or background maps, and the manipulation and control of ground-water models. These programs comprise only a portion of the entire CIRMIS system. A complete description of the CIRMIS system is given in this report. 25 figures, 7 tables. (RWR)

  4. 3D CMM strain-gauge triggering probe error characteristics modeling using fuzzy logic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Achiche, Sofiane; Wozniak, A; Fan, Zhun

    2008-01-01

    FKBs based on two optimization paradigms are used for the reconstruction of the direction- dependent probe error w. The angles beta and gamma are used as input variables of the FKBs; they describe the spatial direction of probe triggering. The learning algorithm used to generate the FKBs is a real......The error values of CMMs depends on the probing direction; hence its spatial variation is a key part of the probe inaccuracy. This paper presents genetically-generated fuzzy knowledge bases (FKBs) to model the spatial error characteristics of a CMM module-changing probe. Two automatically generated...

  5. 3D CMM Strain-Gauge Triggering Probe Error Characteristics Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Achiche, Sofiane; Wozniak, Adam; Fan, Zhun

    2008-01-01

    FKBs based on two optimization paradigms are used for the reconstruction of the directiondependent probe error w. The angles β and γ are used as input variables of the FKBs; they describe the spatial direction of probe triggering. The learning algorithm used to generate the FKBs is a real/ binary like......The error values of CMMs depends on the probing direction; hence its spatial variation is a key part of the probe inaccuracy. This paper presents genetically-generated fuzzy knowledge bases (FKBs) to model the spatial error characteristics of a CMM module-changing probe. Two automatically generated...

  6. Quasi-eccentricity error modeling and compensation in vision metrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yijun; Zhang, Xu; Cheng, Wei; Zhu, Limin

    2018-04-01

    Circular targets are commonly used in vision applications for its detection accuracy and robustness. The eccentricity error of the circular target caused by perspective projection is one of the main factors of measurement error which needs to be compensated in high-accuracy measurement. In this study, the impact of the lens distortion on the eccentricity error is comprehensively investigated. The traditional eccentricity error turns to a quasi-eccentricity error in the non-linear camera model. The quasi-eccentricity error model is established by comparing the quasi-center of the distorted ellipse with the true projection of the object circle center. Then, an eccentricity error compensation framework is proposed which compensates the error by iteratively refining the image point to the true projection of the circle center. Both simulation and real experiment confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method in several vision applications.

  7. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasiolek, M. A.

    2003-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699], Section 6.2). Parameter values

  8. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  9. Non parametric, self organizing, scalable modeling of spatiotemporal inputs: the sign language paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caridakis, G; Karpouzis, K; Drosopoulos, A; Kollias, S

    2012-12-01

    Modeling and recognizing spatiotemporal, as opposed to static input, is a challenging task since it incorporates input dynamics as part of the problem. The vast majority of existing methods tackle the problem as an extension of the static counterpart, using dynamics, such as input derivatives, at feature level and adopting artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques originally designed for solving problems that do not specifically address the temporal aspect. The proposed approach deals with temporal and spatial aspects of the spatiotemporal domain in a discriminative as well as coupling manner. Self Organizing Maps (SOM) model the spatial aspect of the problem and Markov models its temporal counterpart. Incorporation of adjacency, both in training and classification, enhances the overall architecture with robustness and adaptability. The proposed scheme is validated both theoretically, through an error propagation study, and experimentally, on the recognition of individual signs, performed by different, native Greek Sign Language users. Results illustrate the architecture's superiority when compared to Hidden Markov Model techniques and variations both in terms of classification performance and computational cost. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Measurement of Laser Weld Temperatures for 3D Model Input

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dagel, Daryl [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Grossetete, Grant [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Maccallum, Danny O. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Laser welding is a key joining process used extensively in the manufacture and assembly of critical components for several weapons systems. Sandia National Laboratories advances the understanding of the laser welding process through coupled experimentation and modeling. This report summarizes the experimental portion of the research program, which focused on measuring temperatures and thermal history of laser welds on steel plates. To increase confidence in measurement accuracy, researchers utilized multiple complementary techniques to acquire temperatures during laser welding. This data serves as input to and validation of 3D laser welding models aimed at predicting microstructure and the formation of defects and their impact on weld-joint reliability, a crucial step in rapid prototyping of weapons components.

  11. The definition of input parameters for modelling of energetic subsystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ptacek M.

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a short review and a basic description of mathematical models of renewable energy sources which present individual investigated subsystems of a system created in Matlab/Simulink. It solves the physical and mathematical relationships of photovoltaic and wind energy sources that are often connected to the distribution networks. The fuel cell technology is much less connected to the distribution networks but it could be promising in the near future. Therefore, the paper informs about a new dynamic model of the low-temperature fuel cell subsystem, and the main input parameters are defined as well. Finally, the main evaluated and achieved graphic results for the suggested parameters and for all the individual subsystems mentioned above are shown.

  12. The definition of input parameters for modelling of energetic subsystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ptacek, M.

    2013-06-01

    This paper is a short review and a basic description of mathematical models of renewable energy sources which present individual investigated subsystems of a system created in Matlab/Simulink. It solves the physical and mathematical relationships of photovoltaic and wind energy sources that are often connected to the distribution networks. The fuel cell technology is much less connected to the distribution networks but it could be promising in the near future. Therefore, the paper informs about a new dynamic model of the low-temperature fuel cell subsystem, and the main input parameters are defined as well. Finally, the main evaluated and achieved graphic results for the suggested parameters and for all the individual subsystems mentioned above are shown.

  13. Lysimeter data as input to performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McConnell, J.W. Jr.

    1998-01-01

    The Field Lysimeter Investigations: Low-Level Waste Data Base Development Program is obtaining information on the performance of radioactive waste forms in a disposal environment. Waste forms fabricated using ion-exchange resins from EPICOR-117 prefilters employed in the cleanup of the Three Mile Island (TMI) Nuclear Power Station are being tested to develop a low-level waste data base and to obtain information on survivability of waste forms in a disposal environment. The program includes reviewing radionuclide releases from those waste forms in the first 7 years of sampling and examining the relationship between code input parameters and lysimeter data. Also, lysimeter data are applied to performance assessment source term models, and initial results from use of data in two models are presented

  14. Measurement Error in Designed Experiments for Second Order Models

    OpenAIRE

    McMahan, Angela Renee

    1997-01-01

    Measurement error (ME) in the factor levels of designed experiments is often overlooked in the planning and analysis of experimental designs. A familiar model for this type of ME, called the Berkson error model, is discussed at length. Previous research has examined the effect of Berkson error on two-level factorial and fractional factorial designs. This dissertation extends the examination to designs for second order models. The results are used to suggest ...

  15. Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two ....... These properties make it more suitable for off-line applications. The IND can help in diagnosing the causes of output errors and is computationally inexpensive. It produces best results on short forecast horizons that are typical for online applications.......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...

  16. Phylogenetic mixtures and linear invariants for equal input models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casanellas, Marta; Steel, Mike

    2017-04-01

    The reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from molecular sequence data relies on modelling site substitutions by a Markov process, or a mixture of such processes. In general, allowing mixed processes can result in different tree topologies becoming indistinguishable from the data, even for infinitely long sequences. However, when the underlying Markov process supports linear phylogenetic invariants, then provided these are sufficiently informative, the identifiability of the tree topology can be restored. In this paper, we investigate a class of processes that support linear invariants once the stationary distribution is fixed, the 'equal input model'. This model generalizes the 'Felsenstein 1981' model (and thereby the Jukes-Cantor model) from four states to an arbitrary number of states (finite or infinite), and it can also be described by a 'random cluster' process. We describe the structure and dimension of the vector spaces of phylogenetic mixtures and of linear invariants for any fixed phylogenetic tree (and for all trees-the so called 'model invariants'), on any number n of leaves. We also provide a precise description of the space of mixtures and linear invariants for the special case of [Formula: see text] leaves. By combining techniques from discrete random processes and (multi-) linear algebra, our results build on a classic result that was first established by James Lake (Mol Biol Evol 4:167-191, 1987).

  17. Error Covariance Penalized Regression: A novel multivariate model combining penalized regression with multivariate error structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allegrini, Franco; Braga, Jez W B; Moreira, Alessandro C O; Olivieri, Alejandro C

    2018-06-29

    A new multivariate regression model, named Error Covariance Penalized Regression (ECPR) is presented. Following a penalized regression strategy, the proposed model incorporates information about the measurement error structure of the system, using the error covariance matrix (ECM) as a penalization term. Results are reported from both simulations and experimental data based on replicate mid and near infrared (MIR and NIR) spectral measurements. The results for ECPR are better under non-iid conditions when compared with traditional first-order multivariate methods such as ridge regression (RR), principal component regression (PCR) and partial least-squares regression (PLS). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. On the Correspondence between Mean Forecast Errors and Climate Errors in CMIP5 Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, H. -Y.; Xie, S.; Klein, S. A.; Williams, K. D.; Boyle, J. S.; Bony, S.; Douville, H.; Fermepin, S.; Medeiros, B.; Tyteca, S.; Watanabe, M.; Williamson, D.

    2014-02-01

    The present study examines the correspondence between short- and long-term systematic errors in five atmospheric models by comparing the 16 five-day hindcast ensembles from the Transpose Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II (Transpose-AMIP II) for July–August 2009 (short term) to the climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and AMIP for the June–August mean conditions of the years of 1979–2008 (long term). Because the short-term hindcasts were conducted with identical climate models used in the CMIP5/AMIP simulations, one can diagnose over what time scale systematic errors in these climate simulations develop, thus yielding insights into their origin through a seamless modeling approach. The analysis suggests that most systematic errors of precipitation, clouds, and radiation processes in the long-term climate runs are present by day 5 in ensemble average hindcasts in all models. Errors typically saturate after few days of hindcasts with amplitudes comparable to the climate errors, and the impacts of initial conditions on the simulated ensemble mean errors are relatively small. This robust bias correspondence suggests that these systematic errors across different models likely are initiated by model parameterizations since the atmospheric large-scale states remain close to observations in the first 2–3 days. However, biases associated with model physics can have impacts on the large-scale states by day 5, such as zonal winds, 2-m temperature, and sea level pressure, and the analysis further indicates a good correspondence between short- and long-term biases for these large-scale states. Therefore, improving individual model parameterizations in the hindcast mode could lead to the improvement of most climate models in simulating their climate mean state and potentially their future projections.

  19. Bayesian Total Error Analysis - An Error Sensitive Approach to Model Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franks, S. W.; Kavetski, D.; Kuczera, G.

    2002-12-01

    The majority of environmental models require calibration of their parameters before meaningful predictions of catchment behaviour can be made. Despite the importance of reliable parameter estimates, there are growing concerns about the ability of objective-based inference methods to adequately calibrate environmental models. The problem lies with the formulation of the objective or likelihood function, which is currently implemented using essentially ad-hoc methods. We outline limitations of current calibration methodologies and introduce a more systematic Bayesian Total Error Analysis (BATEA) framework for environmental model calibration and validation, which imposes a hitherto missing rigour in environmental modelling by requiring the specification of physically realistic model and data uncertainty models with explicit assumptions that can and must be tested against available evidence. The BATEA formalism enables inference of the hydrological parameters and also of any latent variables of the uncertainty models, e.g., precipitation depth errors. The latter could be useful for improving data sampling and measurement methodologies. In addition, distinguishing between the various sources of errors will reduce the current ambiguity about parameter and predictive uncertainty and enable rational testing of environmental models' hypotheses. Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods are employed to manage the increased computational requirements of BATEA. A case study using synthetic data demonstrates that explicitly accounting for forcing errors leads to immediate advantages over traditional regression (e.g., standard least squares calibration) that ignore rainfall history corruption and pseudo-likelihood methods (e.g., GLUE) do not explicitly characterise data and model errors. It is precisely data and model errors that are responsible for the need for calibration in the first place; we expect that understanding these errors will force fundamental shifts in the model

  20. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Srikanta

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available

  1. Assigning probability distributions to input parameters of performance assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishra, Srikanta [INTERA Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    2002-02-01

    This study presents an overview of various approaches for assigning probability distributions to input parameters and/or future states of performance assessment models. Specifically,three broad approaches are discussed for developing input distributions: (a) fitting continuous distributions to data, (b) subjective assessment of probabilities, and (c) Bayesian updating of prior knowledge based on new information. The report begins with a summary of the nature of data and distributions, followed by a discussion of several common theoretical parametric models for characterizing distributions. Next, various techniques are presented for fitting continuous distributions to data. These include probability plotting, method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation and nonlinear least squares analysis. The techniques are demonstrated using data from a recent performance assessment study for the Yucca Mountain project. Goodness of fit techniques are also discussed, followed by an overview of how distribution fitting is accomplished in commercial software packages. The issue of subjective assessment of probabilities is dealt with in terms of the maximum entropy distribution selection approach, as well as some common rules for codifying informal expert judgment. Formal expert elicitation protocols are discussed next, and are based primarily on the guidance provided by the US NRC. The Bayesian framework for updating prior distributions (beliefs) when new information becomes available is discussed. A simple numerical approach is presented for facilitating practical applications of the Bayes theorem. Finally, a systematic framework for assigning distributions is presented: (a) for the situation where enough data are available to define an empirical CDF or fit a parametric model to the data, and (b) to deal with the situation where only a limited amount of information is available.

  2. Study of error modeling in kinematic calibration of parallel manipulators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Wang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Error modeling is the foundation of a kinematic calibration which is a main approach to assure the accuracy of parallel manipulators. This article investigates the influence of error model on the kinematic calibration of parallel manipulators. Based on the coupling analysis between error parameters, an identifiability index for evaluating the error model is proposed. Taking a 3PRS parallel manipulator as an example, three error models with different values of identifiability index are given. With the same parameter identification, measurement, and compensation method, the computer simulations and prototype experiments of the kinematic calibration with each error model are performed. The simulation and experiment results show that the kinematic calibration using the error model with a bigger value of identifiability index can lead to a better accuracy of the manipulator. Then, an approach of error modeling is proposed to obtain a bigger value of identifiability index. The study of this article is useful for error modeling in kinematic calibration of other parallel manipulators.

  3. Metocean input data for drift models applications: Loustic study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michon, P.; Bossart, C.; Cabioc'h, M.

    1995-01-01

    Real-time monitoring and crisis management of oil slicks or floating structures displacement require a good knowledge of local winds, waves and currents used as input data for operational drift models. Fortunately, thanks to world-wide and all-weather coverage, satellite measurements have recently enabled the introduction of new methods for the remote sensing of the marine environment. Within a French joint industry project, a procedure has been developed using basically satellite measurements combined to metocean models in order to provide marine operators' drift models with reliable wind, wave and current analyses and short term forecasts. Particularly, a model now allows the calculation of the drift current, under the joint action of wind and sea-state, thus radically improving the classical laws. This global procedure either directly uses satellite wind and waves measurements (if available on the study area) or indirectly, as calibration of metocean models results which are brought to the oil slick or floating structure location. The operational use of this procedure is reported here with an example of floating structure drift offshore from the Brittany coasts

  4. Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.

    2017-12-01

    A machine-learning-based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (e.g., random forests, LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed `error indicators' (i.e., features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering), and subsequently constructs a `local' regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider two uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance, and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (e.g., time-integrated errors). We apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil--water subsurface flow simulations. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization with proper orthogonal decomposition. When the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well-averaged errors.

  5. Input modeling with phase-type distributions and Markov models theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Buchholz, Peter; Felko, Iryna

    2014-01-01

    Containing a summary of several recent results on Markov-based input modeling in a coherent notation, this book introduces and compares algorithms for parameter fitting and gives an overview of available software tools in the area. Due to progress made in recent years with respect to new algorithms to generate PH distributions and Markovian arrival processes from measured data, the models outlined are useful alternatives to other distributions or stochastic processes used for input modeling. Graduate students and researchers in applied probability, operations research and computer science along with practitioners using simulation or analytical models for performance analysis and capacity planning will find the unified notation and up-to-date results presented useful. Input modeling is the key step in model based system analysis to adequately describe the load of a system using stochastic models. The goal of input modeling is to find a stochastic model to describe a sequence of measurements from a real system...

  6. Interferometric GPS Attitude: A Stochastic Error Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-02-01

    i’attitude SPG ainsi que les erreurs d’attitude observdes durant ressai en mer. II caracterise ces erreurs come 6tant des procedures stochastiques. ..-’II...the multipath error, which changes with satellite geometry. The satellites, in 12 hour orbits , move through about 33 degrees in 4,000 seconds, which

  7. Dual Numbers Approach in Multiaxis Machines Error Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Hrdina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiaxis machines error modeling is set in the context of modern differential geometry and linear algebra. We apply special classes of matrices over dual numbers and propose a generalization of such concept by means of general Weil algebras. We show that the classification of the geometric errors follows directly from the algebraic properties of the matrices over dual numbers and thus the calculus over the dual numbers is the proper tool for the methodology of multiaxis machines error modeling.

  8. A New Ensemble of Perturbed-Input-Parameter Simulations by the Community Atmosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Covey, C; Brandon, S; Bremer, P T; Domyancis, D; Garaizar, X; Johannesson, G; Klein, R; Klein, S A; Lucas, D D; Tannahill, J; Zhang, Y

    2011-10-27

    Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a fundamental challenge in the numerical simulation of Earth's weather and climate, and other complex systems. It entails much more than attaching defensible error bars to predictions: in particular it includes assessing low-probability but high-consequence events. To achieve these goals with models containing a large number of uncertain input parameters, structural uncertainties, etc., raw computational power is needed. An automated, self-adapting search of the possible model configurations is also useful. Our UQ initiative at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has produced the most extensive set to date of simulations from the US Community Atmosphere Model. We are examining output from about 3,000 twelve-year climate simulations generated with a specialized UQ software framework, and assessing the model's accuracy as a function of 21 to 28 uncertain input parameter values. Most of the input parameters we vary are related to the boundary layer, clouds, and other sub-grid scale processes. Our simulations prescribe surface boundary conditions (sea surface temperatures and sea ice amounts) to match recent observations. Fully searching this 21+ dimensional space is impossible, but sensitivity and ranking algorithms can identify input parameters having relatively little effect on a variety of output fields, either individually or in nonlinear combination. Bayesian statistical constraints, employing a variety of climate observations as metrics, also seem promising. Observational constraints will be important in the next step of our project, which will compute sea surface temperatures and sea ice interactively, and will study climate change due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.

  9. Optical linear algebra processors - Noise and error-source modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casasent, D.; Ghosh, A.

    1985-01-01

    The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAPs) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.

  10. Optical linear algebra processors: noise and error-source modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casasent, D; Ghosh, A

    1985-06-01

    The modeling of system and component noise and error sources in optical linear algebra processors (OLAP's) are considered, with attention to the frequency-multiplexed OLAP. General expressions are obtained for the output produced as a function of various component errors and noise. A digital simulator for this model is discussed.

  11. NASA Model of "Threat and Error" in Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Patterns of Error Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Edward; Pham-Hung, Eric; Nosikova, Yaroslavna; Halvorsen, Fredrik; Gritti, Michael; Schwartz, Steven; Caldarone, Christopher A; Van Arsdell, Glen

    2017-04-01

    We introduced the National Aeronautics and Space Association threat-and-error model to our surgical unit. All admissions are considered flights, which should pass through stepwise deescalations in risk during surgical recovery. We hypothesized that errors significantly influence risk deescalation and contribute to poor outcomes. Patient flights (524) were tracked in real time for threats, errors, and unintended states by full-time performance personnel. Expected risk deescalation was wean from mechanical support, sternal closure, extubation, intensive care unit (ICU) discharge, and discharge home. Data were accrued from clinical charts, bedside data, reporting mechanisms, and staff interviews. Infographics of flights were openly discussed weekly for consensus. In 12% (64 of 524) of flights, the child failed to deescalate sequentially through expected risk levels; unintended increments instead occurred. Failed deescalations were highly associated with errors (426; 257 flights; p associated with a 29% rate of failed deescalation versus 4% in flights with no consequential error (p < 0.0001). The most dangerous errors were apical errors typically (84%) occurring in the operating room, which caused chains of propagating unintended states (n = 110): these had a 43% (47 of 110) rate of failed deescalation (versus 4%; p < 0.0001). Chains of unintended state were often (46%) amplified by additional (up to 7) errors in the ICU that would worsen clinical deviation. Overall, failed deescalations in risk were extremely closely linked to brain injury (n = 13; p < 0.0001) or death (n = 7; p < 0.0001). Deaths and brain injury after pediatric cardiac surgery almost always occur from propagating error chains that originate in the operating room and are often amplified by additional ICU errors. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. A Markovian model of evolving world input-output network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Moosavi

    Full Text Available The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, so far there has not been a full investigation of evolving world economic networks with Markov chain formalism. In this work, using the recently available world input-output database, we investigated the evolution of the world economic network from 1995 to 2011 through analysis of a time series of finite Markov chains. We assessed different aspects of this evolving system via different known properties of the Markov chains such as mixing time, Kemeny constant, steady state probabilities and perturbation analysis of the transition matrices. First, we showed how the time series of mixing times and Kemeny constants could be used as an aggregate index of globalization. Next, we focused on the steady state probabilities as a measure of structural power of the economies that are comparable to GDP shares of economies as the traditional index of economies welfare. Further, we introduced two measures of systemic risk, called systemic influence and systemic fragility, where the former is the ratio of number of influenced nodes to the total number of nodes, caused by a shock in the activity of a node, and the latter is based on the number of times a specific economic node is affected by a shock in the activity of any of the other nodes. Finally, focusing on Kemeny constant as a global indicator of monetary flow across the network, we showed that there is a paradoxical effect of a change in activity levels of economic nodes on the overall flow of the world economic network. While the economic slowdown of the majority of nodes with high structural power results to a slower average monetary flow over the network, there are some nodes, where their slowdowns improve the overall quality of the network in terms of connectivity and the average flow of the money.

  13. A Markovian model of evolving world input-output network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosavi, Vahid; Isacchini, Giulio

    2017-01-01

    The initial theoretical connections between Leontief input-output models and Markov chains were established back in 1950s. However, considering the wide variety of mathematical properties of Markov chains, so far there has not been a full investigation of evolving world economic networks with Markov chain formalism. In this work, using the recently available world input-output database, we investigated the evolution of the world economic network from 1995 to 2011 through analysis of a time series of finite Markov chains. We assessed different aspects of this evolving system via different known properties of the Markov chains such as mixing time, Kemeny constant, steady state probabilities and perturbation analysis of the transition matrices. First, we showed how the time series of mixing times and Kemeny constants could be used as an aggregate index of globalization. Next, we focused on the steady state probabilities as a measure of structural power of the economies that are comparable to GDP shares of economies as the traditional index of economies welfare. Further, we introduced two measures of systemic risk, called systemic influence and systemic fragility, where the former is the ratio of number of influenced nodes to the total number of nodes, caused by a shock in the activity of a node, and the latter is based on the number of times a specific economic node is affected by a shock in the activity of any of the other nodes. Finally, focusing on Kemeny constant as a global indicator of monetary flow across the network, we showed that there is a paradoxical effect of a change in activity levels of economic nodes on the overall flow of the world economic network. While the economic slowdown of the majority of nodes with high structural power results to a slower average monetary flow over the network, there are some nodes, where their slowdowns improve the overall quality of the network in terms of connectivity and the average flow of the money.

  14. Optimal input design for model discrimination using Pontryagin's maximum principle: Application to kinetic model structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.; Walter, E.

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents a methodology for an optimal input design for model discrimination. To allow analytical solutions, the method, using Pontryagin’s maximum principle, is developed for non-linear single-state systems that are affine in their joint input. The method is demonstrated on a fed-batch

  15. Regulation of Wnt signaling by nociceptive input in animal models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi Yuqiang

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Central sensitization-associated synaptic plasticity in the spinal cord dorsal horn (SCDH critically contributes to the development of chronic pain, but understanding of the underlying molecular pathways is still incomplete. Emerging evidence suggests that Wnt signaling plays a crucial role in regulation of synaptic plasticity. Little is known about the potential function of the Wnt signaling cascades in chronic pain development. Results Fluorescent immunostaining results indicate that β-catenin, an essential protein in the canonical Wnt signaling pathway, is expressed in the superficial layers of the mouse SCDH with enrichment at synapses in lamina II. In addition, Wnt3a, a prototypic Wnt ligand that activates the canonical pathway, is also enriched in the superficial layers. Immunoblotting analysis indicates that both Wnt3a a β-catenin are up-regulated in the SCDH of various mouse pain models created by hind-paw injection of capsaicin, intrathecal (i.t. injection of HIV-gp120 protein or spinal nerve ligation (SNL. Furthermore, Wnt5a, a prototypic Wnt ligand for non-canonical pathways, and its receptor Ror2 are also up-regulated in the SCDH of these models. Conclusion Our results suggest that Wnt signaling pathways are regulated by nociceptive input. The activation of Wnt signaling may regulate the expression of spinal central sensitization during the development of acute and chronic pain.

  16. ON MODELING METHODS OF REPRODUCTION OF FIXED ASSETS IN DYNAMIC INPUT - OUTPUT MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baranov A. O.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a comparative study of methods for modeling reproduction of fixed assets in various types of dynamic input-output models, which have been developed at the Novosibirsk State University and at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Division of Russian Academy of Sciences. The study compares the technique of information providing for the investment blocks of the models. Considered in detail mathematical description of the block of fixed assets reproduction in the Dynamic Input - Output Model included in the KAMIN system and the optimization interregional input - output model. Analyzes the peculiarities of information support of investment and fixed assets blocks of the Dynamic Input - Output Model included in the KAMIN system and the optimization interregional input - output model. In conclusion of the article provides suggestions for joint use of the analyzed models for Russian economy development forecasting. Provided the use of the KAMIN system’s models for short-term and middle-term forecasting and the optimization interregional input - output model to develop long-term forecasts based on the spatial structure of the economy.

  17. Managing errors in radiology: a working model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melvin, C.; Bodley, R.; Booth, A.; Meagher, T.; Record, C.; Savage, P.

    2004-01-01

    AIM: To develop a practical mechanism for reviewing reporting discrepancies as addressed in the Royal College of Radiologists publication 'To err is human. The case for review of reporting discrepancies'. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A regular meeting was developed, and has evolved, within the department to review discrepancies. Standard forms were devised for submission of cases as well as recording and classification of discrepancies. This has resulted in availability of figures that can be audited annually. RESULTS: Eighty-one cases involving error were reviewed over a 12-month period. Seven further cases flagged as discrepancies were not identified on peer review. Twenty-four reports were amended subsequent to the meeting. Nineteen additional cases were brought to the meeting as illustrative of teaching points or for discussion. CONCLUSION: We have evolved a successful process of reviewing reporting errors, which enjoys the confidence and support of all clinical radiologists, and is perceived as a method of improving patient care through an increasing awareness of lapses in performance

  18. The error model and experiment of measuring angular position error based on laser collimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yangyang; Yang, Jing; Li, Jiakun; Feng, Qibo

    2018-01-01

    Rotary axis is the reference component of rotation motion. Angular position error is the most critical factor which impair the machining precision among the six degree-of-freedom (DOF) geometric errors of rotary axis. In this paper, the measuring method of angular position error of rotary axis based on laser collimation is thoroughly researched, the error model is established and 360 ° full range measurement is realized by using the high precision servo turntable. The change of space attitude of each moving part is described accurately by the 3×3 transformation matrices and the influences of various factors on the measurement results is analyzed in detail. Experiments results show that the measurement method can achieve high measurement accuracy and large measurement range.

  19. Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuurman, Noémi K.; Houtveen, Jan H.; Hamaker, Ellen L.

    2015-01-01

    Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30–50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters. PMID:26283988

  20. Empirical study of the GARCH model with rational errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ting Ting; Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2013-01-01

    We use the GARCH model with a fat-tailed error distribution described by a rational function and apply it to stock price data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. To determine the model parameters we perform Bayesian inference to the model. Bayesian inference is implemented by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive multi-dimensional Student's t-proposal density. In order to compare our model with the GARCH model with the standard normal errors, we calculate the information criteria AIC and DIC, and find that both criteria favor the GARCH model with a rational error distribution. We also calculate the accuracy of the volatility by using the realized volatility and find that a good accuracy is obtained for the GARCH model with a rational error distribution. Thus we conclude that the GARCH model with a rational error distribution is superior to the GARCH model with the normal errors and it can be used as an alternative GARCH model to those with other fat-tailed distributions

  1. Deconvolution Estimation in Measurement Error Models: The R Package decon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Feng; Wang, Bin

    2011-01-01

    Data from many scientific areas often come with measurement error. Density or distribution function estimation from contaminated data and nonparametric regression with errors-in-variables are two important topics in measurement error models. In this paper, we present a new software package decon for R, which contains a collection of functions that use the deconvolution kernel methods to deal with the measurement error problems. The functions allow the errors to be either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic. To make the deconvolution estimators computationally more efficient in R, we adapt the fast Fourier transform algorithm for density estimation with error-free data to the deconvolution kernel estimation. We discuss the practical selection of the smoothing parameter in deconvolution methods and illustrate the use of the package through both simulated and real examples. PMID:21614139

  2. Bayesian approach to errors-in-variables in regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozliman, Nur Aainaa; Ibrahim, Adriana Irawati Nur; Yunus, Rossita Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    In many applications and experiments, data sets are often contaminated with error or mismeasured covariates. When at least one of the covariates in a model is measured with error, Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model can be used. Measurement error, when not corrected, would cause misleading statistical inferences and analysis. Therefore, our goal is to examine the relationship of the outcome variable and the unobserved exposure variable given the observed mismeasured surrogate by applying the Bayesian formulation to the EIV model. We shall extend the flexible parametric method proposed by Hossain and Gustafson (2009) to another nonlinear regression model which is the Poisson regression model. We shall then illustrate the application of this approach via a simulation study using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods.

  3. Which forcing data errors matter most when modeling seasonal snowpacks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raleigh, M. S.; Lundquist, J. D.; Clark, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    High quality forcing data are critical when modeling seasonal snowpacks and snowmelt, but their quality is often compromised due to measurement errors or deficiencies in gridded data products (e.g., spatio-temporal interpolation, empirical parameterizations, or numerical weather model outputs). To assess the relative impact of errors in different meteorological forcings, many studies have conducted sensitivity analyses where errors (e.g., bias) are imposed on one forcing at a time and changes in model output are compared. Although straightforward, this approach only considers simplistic error structures and cannot quantify interactions in different meteorological forcing errors (i.e., it assumes a linear system). Here we employ the Sobol' method of global sensitivity analysis, which allows us to test how co-existing errors in six meteorological forcings (i.e., air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation) impact specific modeled snow variables (i.e., peak snow water equivalent, snowmelt rates, and snow disappearance timing). Using the Sobol' framework across a large number of realizations (>100000 simulations annually at each site), we test how (1) the type (e.g., bias vs. random errors), (2) distribution (e.g., uniform vs. normal), and (3) magnitude (e.g., instrument uncertainty vs. field uncertainty) of forcing errors impact key outputs from a physically based snow model (the Utah Energy Balance). We also assess the role of climate by conducting the analysis at sites in maritime, intermountain, continental, and tundra snow zones. For all outputs considered, results show that (1) biases in forcing data are more important than random errors, (2) the choice of error distribution can enhance the importance of specific forcings, and (3) the level of uncertainty considered dictates the relative importance of forcings. While the relative importance of forcings varied with snow variable and climate, the results broadly

  4. Spatial Linear Mixed Models with Covariate Measurement Errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi; Tang, Haicheng; Lin, Xihong

    2009-01-01

    Spatial data with covariate measurement errors have been commonly observed in public health studies. Existing work mainly concentrates on parameter estimation using Gibbs sampling, and no work has been conducted to understand and quantify the theoretical impact of ignoring measurement error on spatial data analysis in the form of the asymptotic biases in regression coefficients and variance components when measurement error is ignored. Plausible implementations, from frequentist perspectives, of maximum likelihood estimation in spatial covariate measurement error models are also elusive. In this paper, we propose a new class of linear mixed models for spatial data in the presence of covariate measurement errors. We show that the naive estimators of the regression coefficients are attenuated while the naive estimators of the variance components are inflated, if measurement error is ignored. We further develop a structural modeling approach to obtaining the maximum likelihood estimator by accounting for the measurement error. We study the large sample properties of the proposed maximum likelihood estimator, and propose an EM algorithm to draw inference. All the asymptotic properties are shown under the increasing-domain asymptotic framework. We illustrate the method by analyzing the Scottish lip cancer data, and evaluate its performance through a simulation study, all of which elucidate the importance of adjusting for covariate measurement errors.

  5. Learning (from) the errors of a systems biology model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelhardt, Benjamin; Frőhlich, Holger; Kschischo, Maik

    2016-02-11

    Mathematical modelling is a labour intensive process involving several iterations of testing on real data and manual model modifications. In biology, the domain knowledge guiding model development is in many cases itself incomplete and uncertain. A major problem in this context is that biological systems are open. Missed or unknown external influences as well as erroneous interactions in the model could thus lead to severely misleading results. Here we introduce the dynamic elastic-net, a data driven mathematical method which automatically detects such model errors in ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. We demonstrate for real and simulated data, how the dynamic elastic-net approach can be used to automatically (i) reconstruct the error signal, (ii) identify the target variables of model error, and (iii) reconstruct the true system state even for incomplete or preliminary models. Our work provides a systematic computational method facilitating modelling of open biological systems under uncertain knowledge.

  6. Sensitivity analysis of geometric errors in additive manufacturing medical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Jose Miguel; Arrieta, Cristobal; Andia, Marcelo E; Uribe, Sergio; Ramos-Grez, Jorge; Vargas, Alex; Irarrazaval, Pablo; Tejos, Cristian

    2015-03-01

    Additive manufacturing (AM) models are used in medical applications for surgical planning, prosthesis design and teaching. For these applications, the accuracy of the AM models is essential. Unfortunately, this accuracy is compromised due to errors introduced by each of the building steps: image acquisition, segmentation, triangulation, printing and infiltration. However, the contribution of each step to the final error remains unclear. We performed a sensitivity analysis comparing errors obtained from a reference with those obtained modifying parameters of each building step. Our analysis considered global indexes to evaluate the overall error, and local indexes to show how this error is distributed along the surface of the AM models. Our results show that the standard building process tends to overestimate the AM models, i.e. models are larger than the original structures. They also show that the triangulation resolution and the segmentation threshold are critical factors, and that the errors are concentrated at regions with high curvatures. Errors could be reduced choosing better triangulation and printing resolutions, but there is an important need for modifying some of the standard building processes, particularly the segmentation algorithms. Copyright © 2015 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The stability of input structures in a supply-driven input-output model: A regional analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, T.

    1994-06-01

    Disruptions in the supply of strategic resources or other crucial factor inputs often present significant problems for planners and policymakers. The problem may be particularly significant at the regional level where higher levels of product specialization mean supply restrictions are more likely to affect leading regional industries. To maintain economic stability in the event of a supply restriction, regional planners may therefore need to evaluate the importance of market versus non-market systems for allocating the remaining supply of the disrupted resource to the region`s leading consuming industries. This paper reports on research that has attempted to show that large short term changes on the supply side do not lead to substantial changes in input coefficients and do not therefore mean the abandonment of the concept of the production function as has been suggested (Oosterhaven, 1988). The supply-driven model was tested for six sectors of the economy of Washington State and found to yield new input coefficients whose values were in most cases close approximations of their original values, even with substantial changes in supply. Average coefficient changes from a 50% output reduction in these six sectors were in the vast majority of cases (297 from a total of 315) less than +2.0% of their original values, excluding coefficient changes for the restricted input. Given these small changes, the most important issue for the validity of the supply-driven input-output model may therefore be the empirical question of the extent to which these coefficient changes are acceptable as being within the limits of approximation.

  8. A Model of Self-Monitoring Blood Glucose Measurement Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vettoretti, Martina; Facchinetti, Andrea; Sparacino, Giovanni; Cobelli, Claudio

    2017-07-01

    A reliable model of the probability density function (PDF) of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) measurement error would be important for several applications in diabetes, like testing in silico insulin therapies. In the literature, the PDF of SMBG error is usually described by a Gaussian function, whose symmetry and simplicity are unable to properly describe the variability of experimental data. Here, we propose a new methodology to derive more realistic models of SMBG error PDF. The blood glucose range is divided into zones where error (absolute or relative) presents a constant standard deviation (SD). In each zone, a suitable PDF model is fitted by maximum-likelihood to experimental data. Model validation is performed by goodness-of-fit tests. The method is tested on two databases collected by the One Touch Ultra 2 (OTU2; Lifescan Inc, Milpitas, CA) and the Bayer Contour Next USB (BCN; Bayer HealthCare LLC, Diabetes Care, Whippany, NJ). In both cases, skew-normal and exponential models are used to describe the distribution of errors and outliers, respectively. Two zones were identified: zone 1 with constant SD absolute error; zone 2 with constant SD relative error. Goodness-of-fit tests confirmed that identified PDF models are valid and superior to Gaussian models used so far in the literature. The proposed methodology allows to derive realistic models of SMBG error PDF. These models can be used in several investigations of present interest in the scientific community, for example, to perform in silico clinical trials to compare SMBG-based with nonadjunctive CGM-based insulin treatments.

  9. Effective Moisture Penetration Depth Model for Residential Buildings: Sensitivity Analysis and Guidance on Model Inputs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woods, Jason D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Winkler, Jonathan M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-31

    Moisture buffering of building materials has a significant impact on the building's indoor humidity, and building energy simulations need to model this buffering to accurately predict the humidity. Researchers requiring a simple moisture-buffering approach typically rely on the effective-capacitance model, which has been shown to be a poor predictor of actual indoor humidity. This paper describes an alternative two-layer effective moisture penetration depth (EMPD) model and its inputs. While this model has been used previously, there is a need to understand the sensitivity of this model to uncertain inputs. In this paper, we use the moisture-adsorbent materials exposed to the interior air: drywall, wood, and carpet. We use a global sensitivity analysis to determine which inputs are most influential and how the model's prediction capability degrades due to uncertainty in these inputs. We then compare the model's humidity prediction with measured data from five houses, which shows that this model, and a set of simple inputs, can give reasonable prediction of the indoor humidity.

  10. Error and Uncertainty Analysis for Ecological Modeling and Simulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gertner, George

    1998-01-01

    The main objectives of this project are a) to develop a general methodology for conducting sensitivity and uncertainty analysis and building error budgets in simulation modeling over space and time; and b...

  11. Efficiency in Linear Model with AR (1) and Correlated Error ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    Assumptions in the classical normal linear regression model include that of lack of autocorrelation of the error terms ... which the classical linear regression model is based will usually be violated. These violations, seen in widespread .... we conclude in section 5. The Model. We assume a simple linear regression model:.

  12. Computing and analyzing the sensitivity of MLP due to the errors of the i.i.d. inputs and weights based on CLT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Sheng-Sung; Ho, Chia-Lu; Siu, Sammy

    2010-12-01

    In this paper, we propose an algorithm based on the central limit theorem to compute the sensitivity of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) due to the errors of the inputs and weights. For simplicity and practicality, all inputs and weights studied here are independently identically distributed (i.i.d.). The theoretical results derived from the proposed algorithm show that the sensitivity of the MLP is affected by the number of layers and the number of neurons adopted in each layer. To prove the reliability of the proposed algorithm, some experimental results of the sensitivity are also presented, and they match the theoretical ones. The good agreement between the theoretical results and the experimental results verifies the reliability and feasibility of the proposed algorithm. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm can also be applied to compute precisely the sensitivity of the MLP with any available activation functions and any types of i.i.d. inputs and weights.

  13. Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.

    2012-01-01

    During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one...... "preferred" GIA model has been used, without any consideration of the possible errors involved. Lacking a rigorous assessment of systematic errors in GIA modeling, the reliabil-ity of the results is uncertain. GIA sensitivity and uncertainties associated with the viscosity mod-els have been explored...... in the literature. However, at least two major sources of errors remain. The first is associated with the ice models, spatial distribution of ice and history of melting (this is especially the case of Antarctica), the second with the numerical implementation of model fea-tures relevant to sea level modeling...

  14. Bayesian modeling of measurement error in predictor variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    2003-01-01

    It is shown that measurement error in predictor variables can be modeled using item response theory (IRT). The predictor variables, that may be defined at any level of an hierarchical regression model, are treated as latent variables. The normal ogive model is used to describe the relation between

  15. Finding of Correction Factor and Dimensional Error in Bio-AM Model by FDM Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manmadhachary, Aiamunoori; Ravi Kumar, Yennam; Krishnanand, Lanka

    2016-06-01

    Additive Manufacturing (AM) is the swift manufacturing process, in which input data can be provided from various sources like 3-Dimensional (3D) Computer Aided Design (CAD), Computed Tomography (CT), Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and 3D scanner data. From the CT/MRI data can be manufacture Biomedical Additive Manufacturing (Bio-AM) models. The Bio-AM model gives a better lead on preplanning of oral and maxillofacial surgery. However manufacturing of the accurate Bio-AM model is one of the unsolved problems. The current paper demonstrates error between the Standard Triangle Language (STL) model to Bio-AM model of dry mandible and found correction factor in Bio-AM model with Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM) technique. In the present work dry mandible CT images are acquired by CT scanner and supplied into a 3D CAD model in the form of STL model. Further the data is sent to FDM machine for fabrication of Bio-AM model. The difference between Bio-AM to STL model dimensions is considered as dimensional error and the ratio of STL to Bio-AM model dimensions considered as a correction factor. This correction factor helps to fabricate the AM model with accurate dimensions of the patient anatomy. These true dimensional Bio-AM models increasing the safety and accuracy in pre-planning of oral and maxillofacial surgery. The correction factor for Dimension SST 768 FDM AM machine is 1.003 and dimensional error is limited to 0.3 %.

  16. High Temperature Test Facility Preliminary RELAP5-3D Input Model Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bayless, Paul David [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-12-01

    A RELAP5-3D input model is being developed for the High Temperature Test Facility at Oregon State University. The current model is described in detail. Further refinements will be made to the model as final as-built drawings are released and when system characterization data are available for benchmarking the input model.

  17. Modeling of Bit Error Rate in Cascaded 2R Regenerators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Öhman, Filip; Mørk, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a simple and efficient model for estimating the bit error rate in a cascade of optical 2R-regenerators. The model includes the influences of of amplifier noise, finite extinction ratio and nonlinear reshaping. The interplay between the different signal impairments and the rege......This paper presents a simple and efficient model for estimating the bit error rate in a cascade of optical 2R-regenerators. The model includes the influences of of amplifier noise, finite extinction ratio and nonlinear reshaping. The interplay between the different signal impairments...

  18. Getting innovation out of suppliers? A conceptual model for characterizing supplier inputs to new product development

    OpenAIRE

    Lakemond, Nicolette; Rosell, David T.

    2011-01-01

    There are many studies on supplier collaborations in NPD. However, there is not much written about what suppliers actually contribute to innovation. Based on a literature review focusing on 80 articles we develop a conceptual framework categorizing different supplier inputs to innovation. This model is formulated by characterizing supplier inputs related to the component level and architectural level, and inputs that are incremental or radical in nature. On a component level, supplier inputs ...

  19. Modeling Human Error Mechanism for Soft Control in Advanced Control Rooms (ACRs)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aljneibi, Hanan Salah Ali; Ha, Jun Su; Kang, Seongkeun; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2015-01-01

    To achieve the switch from conventional analog-based design to digital design in ACRs, a large number of manual operating controls and switches have to be replaced by a few common multi-function devices which is called soft control system. The soft controls in APR-1400 ACRs are classified into safety-grade and non-safety-grade soft controls; each was designed using different and independent input devices in ACRs. The operations using soft controls require operators to perform new tasks which were not necessary in conventional controls such as navigating computerized displays to monitor plant information and control devices. These kinds of computerized displays and soft controls may make operations more convenient but they might cause new types of human error. In this study the human error mechanism during the soft controls is studied and modeled to be used for analysis and enhancement of human performance (or human errors) during NPP operation. The developed model would contribute to a lot of applications to improve human performance (or reduce human errors), HMI designs, and operators' training program in ACRs. The developed model of human error mechanism for the soft control is based on assumptions that a human operator has certain amount of capacity in cognitive resources and if resources required by operating tasks are greater than resources invested by the operator, human error (or poor human performance) is likely to occur (especially in 'slip'); good HMI (Human-machine Interface) design decreases the required resources; operator's skillfulness decreases the required resources; and high vigilance increases the invested resources. In this study the human error mechanism during the soft controls is studied and modeled to be used for analysis and enhancement of human performance (or reduction of human errors) during NPP operation

  20. Performance evaluation in color face hallucination with error regression model in MPCA subspace method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asavaskulkiet, Krissada

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel face super-resolution reconstruction (hallucination) technique for YCbCr color space. The underlying idea is to learn with an error regression model and multi-linear principal component analysis (MPCA). From hallucination framework, many color face images are explained in YCbCr space. To reduce the time complexity of color face hallucination, we can be naturally described the color face imaged as tensors or multi-linear arrays. In addition, the error regression analysis is used to find the error estimation which can be obtained from the existing LR in tensor space. In learning process is from the mistakes in reconstruct face images of the training dataset by MPCA, then finding the relationship between input and error by regression analysis. In hallucinating process uses normal method by backprojection of MPCA, after that the result is corrected with the error estimation. In this contribution we show that our hallucination technique can be suitable for color face images both in RGB and YCbCr space. By using the MPCA subspace with error regression model, we can generate photorealistic color face images. Our approach is demonstrated by extensive experiments with high-quality hallucinated color faces. Comparison with existing algorithms shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  1. Gaussian-input Gaussian mixture model for representing density maps and atomic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawabata, Takeshi

    2018-03-06

    A new Gaussian mixture model (GMM) has been developed for better representations of both atomic models and electron microscopy 3D density maps. The standard GMM algorithm employs an EM algorithm to determine the parameters. It accepted a set of 3D points with weights, corresponding to voxel or atomic centers. Although the standard algorithm worked reasonably well; however, it had three problems. First, it ignored the size (voxel width or atomic radius) of the input, and thus it could lead to a GMM with a smaller spread than the input. Second, the algorithm had a singularity problem, as it sometimes stopped the iterative procedure due to a Gaussian function with almost zero variance. Third, a map with a large number of voxels required a long computation time for conversion to a GMM. To solve these problems, we have introduced a Gaussian-input GMM algorithm, which considers the input atoms or voxels as a set of Gaussian functions. The standard EM algorithm of GMM was extended to optimize the new GMM. The new GMM has identical radius of gyration to the input, and does not suddenly stop due to the singularity problem. For fast computation, we have introduced a down-sampled Gaussian functions (DSG) by merging neighboring voxels into an anisotropic Gaussian function. It provides a GMM with thousands of Gaussian functions in a short computation time. We also have introduced a DSG-input GMM: the Gaussian-input GMM with the DSG as the input. This new algorithm is much faster than the standard algorithm. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Development of ANFIS models for air quality forecasting and input optimization for reducing the computational cost and time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Kanchan; Gorai, Amit Kumar; Goyal, Pramila

    2016-03-01

    This study aims to develop adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for forecasting of daily air pollution concentrations of five air pollutants [sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3) and particular matters (PM10)] in the atmosphere of a Megacity (Howrah). Air pollution in the city (Howrah) is rising in parallel with the economics and thus observing, forecasting and controlling the air pollution becomes increasingly important due to the health impact. ANFIS serve as a basis for constructing a set of fuzzy IF-THEN rules, with appropriate membership functions to generate the stipulated input-output pairs. The ANFIS model predictor considers the value of meteorological factors (pressure, temperature, relative humidity, dew point, visibility, wind speed, and precipitation) and previous day's pollutant concentration in different combinations as the inputs to predict the 1-day advance and same day air pollution concentration. The concentration value of five air pollutants and seven meteorological parameters of the Howrah city during the period 2009 to 2011 were used for development of the ANFIS model. Collinearity tests were conducted to eliminate the redundant input variables. A forward selection (FS) method is used for selecting the different subsets of input variables. Application of collinearity tests and FS techniques reduces the numbers of input variables and subsets which helps in reducing the computational cost and time. The performances of the models were evaluated on the basis of four statistical indices (coefficient of determination, normalized mean square error, index of agreement, and fractional bias).

  3. Effect Of Oceanic Lithosphere Age Errors On Model Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLaughter, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    The thermal structure of the oceanic lithosphere is the subject of a long-standing controversy. Because the thermal structure varies with age, it governs properties such as heat flow, density, and bathymetry with important implications for plate tectonics. Though bathymetry, geoid, and heat flow for young (appears to be shallower than expected for older lithosphere indicating a plate model is a better fit. It is therefore useful to jointly fit bathymetry, geoid, and heat flow data to an inverse model to determine lithospheric structure details. Though inverse models usually include the effect of errors in bathymetry, heat flow, and geoid, they rarely examine the effects of errors in age. This may have the effect of introducing subtle biases into inverse models of the oceanic lithosphere. Because the inverse problem for thermal structure is both ill-posed and ill-conditioned, these overlooked errors may have a greater effect than expected. The problem is further complicated by the non-uniform distribution of age and errors in age estimates; for example, only 30% of the oceanic lithosphere is older than 80 MY and less than 3% is older than 150 MY. To determine the potential strength of such biases, I have used the age and error maps of Mueller et al (2008) to forward model the bathymetry for half space and GDH1 plate models. For ages less than 20 MY, both models give similar results. The errors induced by uncertainty in age are relatively large and suggest that when possible young lithosphere should be excluded when examining the lithospheric thermal model. As expected, GDH1 bathymetry converges asymptotically on the theoretical result for error-free data for older data. The resulting uncertainty is nearly as large as that introduced by errors in the other parameters; in the absence of other errors, the models can only be distinguished for ages greater than 80 MY. These results suggest that the problem should be approached with the minimum possible number of

  4. The Sensitivity of Evapotranspiration Models to Errors in Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Three levels of sensitivity, herein termed sensitivity, ratings, were established, namely: Highly Sensitive (Rating:1); Moderately sensitive' (Rating:2); and 'not too sensitive'(Rating: 3). The ratings were based on the amount of error in the measured parameter to introduce + 10% relative error in the predicted Et. The level of ...

  5. GMM estimation in panel data models with measurement error

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wansbeek, T.J.

    Griliches and Hausman (J. Econom. 32 (1986) 93) have introduced GMM estimation in panel data models with measurement error. We present a simple, systematic approach to derive moment conditions for such models under a variety of assumptions. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

  6. Three-Phase Text Error Correction Model for Korean SMS Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, Jeunghyun; Park, So-Young; Lee, Seung-Wook; Rim, Hae-Chang

    In this paper, we propose a three-phase text error correction model consisting of a word spacing error correction phase, a syllable-based spelling error correction phase, and a word-based spelling error correction phase. In order to reduce the text error correction complexity, the proposed model corrects text errors step by step. With the aim of correcting word spacing errors, spelling errors, and mixed errors in SMS messages, the proposed model tries to separately manage the word spacing error correction phase and the spelling error correction phase. For the purpose of utilizing both the syllable-based approach covering various errors and the word-based approach correcting some specific errors accurately, the proposed model subdivides the spelling error correction phase into the syllable-based phase and the word-based phase. Experimental results show that the proposed model can improve the performance by solving the text error correction problem based on the divide-and-conquer strategy.

  7. Validation of the measurement model concept for error structure identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Pavan K.; Orazem, Mark E.; Crisalle, Oscar D.

    2004-01-01

    The development of different forms of measurement models for impedance has allowed examination of key assumptions on which the use of such models to assess error structure are based. The stochastic error structures obtained using the transfer-function and Voigt measurement models were identical, even when non-stationary phenomena caused some of the data to be inconsistent with the Kramers-Kronig relations. The suitability of the measurement model for assessment of consistency with the Kramers-Kronig relations, however, was found to be more sensitive to the confidence interval for the parameter estimates than to the number of parameters in the model. A tighter confidence interval was obtained for Voigt measurement model, which made the Voigt measurement model a more sensitive tool for identification of inconsistencies with the Kramers-Kronig relations

  8. Probabilistic modeling of systematic errors in two-hybrid experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sontag, David; Singh, Rohit; Berger, Bonnie

    2007-01-01

    We describe a novel probabilistic approach to estimating errors in two-hybrid (2H) experiments. Such experiments are frequently used to elucidate protein-protein interaction networks in a high-throughput fashion; however, a significant challenge with these is their relatively high error rate, specifically, a high false-positive rate. We describe a comprehensive error model for 2H data, accounting for both random and systematic errors. The latter arise from limitations of the 2H experimental protocol: in theory, the reporting mechanism of a 2H experiment should be activated if and only if the two proteins being tested truly interact; in practice, even in the absence of a true interaction, it may be activated by some proteins - either by themselves or through promiscuous interaction with other proteins. We describe a probabilistic relational model that explicitly models the above phenomenon and use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to compute both the probability of an observed 2H interaction being true as well as the probability of individual proteins being self-activating/promiscuous. This is the first approach that explicitly models systematic errors in protein-protein interaction data; in contrast, previous work on this topic has modeled errors as being independent and random. By explicitly modeling the sources of noise in 2H systems, we find that we are better able to make use of the available experimental data. In comparison with Bader et al.'s method for estimating confidence in 2H predicted interactions, the proposed method performed 5-10% better overall, and in particular regimes improved prediction accuracy by as much as 76%. http://theory.csail.mit.edu/probmod2H

  9. Development of a computer program to quantify human error probability by integrating the diagnosis model and the response model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, W.D.; Kim, T.W.; Park, C.K.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents an integrated approach to prediction of human error probabilities with a computer program, HREP (Human Reliability Evaluation Program). HREP is developed to provide simplicity in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) and consistency in the obtained results. The basic assumption made in developing HREP is that human behaviors can be quantified in two separate steps. One is the diagnosis error evaluation step and the other the response error evaluation step. HREP integrates the Human Cognitive Reliability (HCR) model and the HRA Event Tree technique. The former corresponds to the Diagnosis model, and the latter the Response model. HREP consists of HREP-IN and HREP-MAIN. HREP-IN is used to generate input files. HREP-MAIN is used to evaluate selected human errors in a given input file. HREP-MAIN is divided into three subsections ; the diagnosis evaluation step, the subaction evaluation step and the modification step. The final modification step takes dependency and/or recovery factors into consideration. (author)

  10. The MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strokal, Maryna; Kroeze, Carolien; Wang, Mengru; Bai, Zhaohai; Ma, Lin

    2016-01-01

    Chinese agriculture has been developing fast towards industrial food production systems that discharge nutrient-rich wastewater into rivers. As a result, nutrient export by rivers has been increasing, resulting in coastal water pollution. We developed a Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients

  11. Combining predictions from linear models when training and test inputs differ

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. van Ommen (Thijs); N.L. Zhang (Nevin); J. Tian (Jin)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractMethods for combining predictions from different models in a supervised learning setting must somehow estimate/predict the quality of a model's predictions at unknown future inputs. Many of these methods (often implicitly) make the assumption that the test inputs are identical to the

  12. Can Simulation Credibility Be Improved Using Sensitivity Analysis to Understand Input Data Effects on Model Outcome?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Jerry G.; Young, M.; Goodenow, Debra A.; Keenan, A.; Walton, M.; Boley, L.

    2015-01-01

    Model and simulation (MS) credibility is defined as, the quality to elicit belief or trust in MS results. NASA-STD-7009 [1] delineates eight components (Verification, Validation, Input Pedigree, Results Uncertainty, Results Robustness, Use History, MS Management, People Qualifications) that address quantifying model credibility, and provides guidance to the model developers, analysts, and end users for assessing the MS credibility. Of the eight characteristics, input pedigree, or the quality of the data used to develop model input parameters, governing functions, or initial conditions, can vary significantly. These data quality differences have varying consequences across the range of MS application. NASA-STD-7009 requires that the lowest input data quality be used to represent the entire set of input data when scoring the input pedigree credibility of the model. This requirement provides a conservative assessment of model inputs, and maximizes the communication of the potential level of risk of using model outputs. Unfortunately, in practice, this may result in overly pessimistic communication of the MS output, undermining the credibility of simulation predictions to decision makers. This presentation proposes an alternative assessment mechanism, utilizing results parameter robustness, also known as model input sensitivity, to improve the credibility scoring process for specific simulations.

  13. Motivation Monitoring and Assessment Extension for Input-Process-Outcome Game Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghergulescu, Ioana; Muntean, Cristina Hava

    2014-01-01

    This article proposes a Motivation Assessment-oriented Input-Process-Outcome Game Model (MotIPO), which extends the Input-Process-Outcome game model with game-centred and player-centred motivation assessments performed right from the beginning of the game-play. A feasibility case-study involving 67 participants playing an educational game and…

  14. The Modulated-Input Modulated-Output Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Moskowitz, Ira S; Kang, Myong H

    1995-01-01

    .... The data replication problem in database systems is our motivation. We introduce a new queueing theoretic model, the MIMO model, that incorporates burstiness in the sending side and busy periods in the receiving side...

  15. Modeling and Control of a Dual-Input Isolated Full-Bridge Boost Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Zhe; Thomsen, Ole Cornelius; Andersen, Michael A. E.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, a steady-state model, a large-signal (LS) model and an ac small-signal (SS) model for a recently proposed dual-input transformer-isolated boost converter are derived respectively by the switching flow-graph (SFG) nonlinear modeling technique. Based upon the converter’s model, the c....... The measured experimental results match the simulation results fairly well on both input source dynamic and step load transient responses....

  16. Testing and Inference in Nonlinear Cointegrating Vector Error Correction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbek, Anders

    In this paper, we consider a general class of vector error correction models which allow for asymmetric and non-linear error correction. We provide asymptotic results for (quasi-)maximum likelihood (QML) based estimators and tests. General hypothesis testing is considered, where testing for linea...... symmetric non-linear error correction are considered. A simulation study shows that the finite sample properties of the bootstrapped tests are satisfactory with good size and power properties for reasonable sample sizes....... for linearity is of particular interest as parameters of non-linear components vanish under the null. To solve the latter type of testing, we use the so-called sup tests, which here requires development of new (uniform) weak convergence results. These results are potentially useful in general for analysis......In this paper, we consider a general class of vector error correction models which allow for asymmetric and non-linear error correction. We provide asymptotic results for (quasi-)maximum likelihood (QML) based estimators and tests. General hypothesis testing is considered, where testing...

  17. The MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs)

    OpenAIRE

    Strokal, Maryna; Kroeze, Carolien; Wang, Mengru; Bai, Zhaohai; Ma, Lin

    2016-01-01

    Chinese agriculture has been developing fast towards industrial food production systems that discharge nutrient-rich wastewater into rivers. As a result, nutrient export by rivers has been increasing, resulting in coastal water pollution. We developed a Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs (MARINA) for China. The MARINA Nutrient Model quantifies river export of nutrients by source at the sub-basin scale as a function of human activities on land. MARINA is a downscaled version for...

  18. On the Influence of Input Data Quality to Flood Damage Estimation: The Performance of the INSYDE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Molinari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available IN-depth SYnthetic Model for Flood Damage Estimation (INSYDE is a model for the estimation of flood damage to residential buildings at the micro-scale. This study investigates the sensitivity of INSYDE to the accuracy of input data. Starting from the knowledge of input parameters at the scale of individual buildings for a case study, the level of detail of input data is progressively downgraded until the condition in which a representative value is defined for all inputs at the census block scale. The analysis reveals that two conditions are required to limit the errors in damage estimation: the representativeness of representatives values with respect to micro-scale values and the local knowledge of the footprint area of the buildings, being the latter the main extensive variable adopted by INSYDE. Such a result allows for extending the usability of the model at the meso-scale, also in different countries, depending on the availability of aggregated building data.

  19. Prediction Errors of Molecular Machine Learning Models Lower than Hybrid DFT Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Felix A; Hutchison, Luke; Huang, Bing; Gilmer, Justin; Schoenholz, Samuel S; Dahl, George E; Vinyals, Oriol; Kearnes, Steven; Riley, Patrick F; von Lilienfeld, O Anatole

    2017-11-14

    We investigate the impact of choosing regressors and molecular representations for the construction of fast machine learning (ML) models of 13 electronic ground-state properties of organic molecules. The performance of each regressor/representation/property combination is assessed using learning curves which report out-of-sample errors as a function of training set size with up to ∼118k distinct molecules. Molecular structures and properties at the hybrid density functional theory (DFT) level of theory come from the QM9 database [ Ramakrishnan et al. Sci. Data 2014 , 1 , 140022 ] and include enthalpies and free energies of atomization, HOMO/LUMO energies and gap, dipole moment, polarizability, zero point vibrational energy, heat capacity, and the highest fundamental vibrational frequency. Various molecular representations have been studied (Coulomb matrix, bag of bonds, BAML and ECFP4, molecular graphs (MG)), as well as newly developed distribution based variants including histograms of distances (HD), angles (HDA/MARAD), and dihedrals (HDAD). Regressors include linear models (Bayesian ridge regression (BR) and linear regression with elastic net regularization (EN)), random forest (RF), kernel ridge regression (KRR), and two types of neural networks, graph convolutions (GC) and gated graph networks (GG). Out-of sample errors are strongly dependent on the choice of representation and regressor and molecular property. Electronic properties are typically best accounted for by MG and GC, while energetic properties are better described by HDAD and KRR. The specific combinations with the lowest out-of-sample errors in the ∼118k training set size limit are (free) energies and enthalpies of atomization (HDAD/KRR), HOMO/LUMO eigenvalue and gap (MG/GC), dipole moment (MG/GC), static polarizability (MG/GG), zero point vibrational energy (HDAD/KRR), heat capacity at room temperature (HDAD/KRR), and highest fundamental vibrational frequency (BAML/RF). We present numerical

  20. Characteristic length scale of input data in distributed models: implications for modeling grid size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artan, G. A.; Neale, C. M. U.; Tarboton, D. G.

    2000-01-01

    The appropriate spatial scale for a distributed energy balance model was investigated by: (a) determining the scale of variability associated with the remotely sensed and GIS-generated model input data; and (b) examining the effects of input data spatial aggregation on model response. The semi-variogram and the characteristic length calculated from the spatial autocorrelation were used to determine the scale of variability of the remotely sensed and GIS-generated model input data. The data were collected from two hillsides at Upper Sheep Creek, a sub-basin of the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, in southwest Idaho. The data were analyzed in terms of the semivariance and the integral of the autocorrelation. The minimum characteristic length associated with the variability of the data used in the analysis was 15 m. Simulated and observed radiometric surface temperature fields at different spatial resolutions were compared. The correlation between agreement simulated and observed fields sharply declined after a 10×10 m2 modeling grid size. A modeling grid size of about 10×10 m2 was deemed to be the best compromise to achieve: (a) reduction of computation time and the size of the support data; and (b) a reproduction of the observed radiometric surface temperature.

  1. Characteristic length scale of input data in distributed models: implications for modeling grain size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artan, Guleid A.; Neale, C. M. U.; Tarboton, D. G.

    2000-01-01

    The appropriate spatial scale for a distributed energy balance model was investigated by: (a) determining the scale of variability associated with the remotely sensed and GIS-generated model input data; and (b) examining the effects of input data spatial aggregation on model response. The semi-variogram and the characteristic length calculated from the spatial autocorrelation were used to determine the scale of variability of the remotely sensed and GIS-generated model input data. The data were collected from two hillsides at Upper Sheep Creek, a sub-basin of the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, in southwest Idaho. The data were analyzed in terms of the semivariance and the integral of the autocorrelation. The minimum characteristic length associated with the variability of the data used in the analysis was 15 m. Simulated and observed radiometric surface temperature fields at different spatial resolutions were compared. The correlation between agreement simulated and observed fields sharply declined after a 10×10 m2 modeling grid size. A modeling grid size of about 10×10 m2 was deemed to be the best compromise to achieve: (a) reduction of computation time and the size of the support data; and (b) a reproduction of the observed radiometric surface temperature.

  2. Consistent estimation of linear panel data models with measurement error

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, Erik; Spierdijk, Laura; Wansbeek, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Measurement error causes a bias towards zero when estimating a panel data linear regression model. The panel data context offers various opportunities to derive instrumental variables allowing for consistent estimation. We consider three sources of moment conditions: (i) restrictions on the

  3. Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

  4. Testing for spatial error dependence in probit models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amaral, P. V.; Anselin, L.; Arribas-Bel, D.

    2013-01-01

    In this note, we compare three test statistics that have been suggested to assess the presence of spatial error autocorrelation in probit models. We highlight the differences between the tests proposed by Pinkse and Slade (J Econom 85(1):125-254, 1998), Pinkse (Asymptotics of the Moran test and a

  5. The propagation of inventory-based positional errors into statistical landslide susceptibility models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Glade, Thomas

    2016-12-01

    systematic comparisons of 12 models provided valuable evidence that the respective error-propagation was not only determined by the degree of positional inaccuracy inherent in the landslide data, but also by the spatial representation of landslides and the environment, landslide magnitude, the characteristics of the study area, the selected classification method and an interplay of predictors within multiple variable models. Based on the results, we deduced that a direct propagation of minor to moderate inventory-based positional errors into modelling results can be partly counteracted by adapting the modelling design (e.g. generalization of input data, opting for strongly generalizing classifiers). Since positional errors within landslide inventories are common and subsequent modelling and validation results are likely to be distorted, the potential existence of inventory-based positional inaccuracies should always be considered when assessing landslide susceptibility by means of empirical models.

  6. Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalet, Alan M.; Gennari, John H.; Ford, Eric C.; Phillips, Mark H.

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network’s conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.

  7. Semiparametric analysis of linear transformation models with covariate measurement errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Samiran; Ma, Yanyuan

    2014-03-01

    We take a semiparametric approach in fitting a linear transformation model to a right censored data when predictive variables are subject to measurement errors. We construct consistent estimating equations when repeated measurements of a surrogate of the unobserved true predictor are available. The proposed approach applies under minimal assumptions on the distributions of the true covariate or the measurement errors. We derive the asymptotic properties of the estimator and illustrate the characteristics of the estimator in finite sample performance via simulation studies. We apply the method to analyze an AIDS clinical trial data set that motivated the work. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  8. Influence of input matrix representation on topic modelling performance

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, A

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Topic models explain a collection of documents with a small set of distributions over terms. These distributions over terms define the topics. Topic models ignore the structure of documents and use a bag-of-words approach which relies solely...

  9. Identifying best-fitting inputs in health-economic model calibration: a Pareto frontier approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enns, Eva A; Cipriano, Lauren E; Simons, Cyrena T; Kong, Chung Yin

    2015-02-01

    To identify best-fitting input sets using model calibration, individual calibration target fits are often combined into a single goodness-of-fit (GOF) measure using a set of weights. Decisions in the calibration process, such as which weights to use, influence which sets of model inputs are identified as best-fitting, potentially leading to different health economic conclusions. We present an alternative approach to identifying best-fitting input sets based on the concept of Pareto-optimality. A set of model inputs is on the Pareto frontier if no other input set simultaneously fits all calibration targets as well or better. We demonstrate the Pareto frontier approach in the calibration of 2 models: a simple, illustrative Markov model and a previously published cost-effectiveness model of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). For each model, we compare the input sets on the Pareto frontier to an equal number of best-fitting input sets according to 2 possible weighted-sum GOF scoring systems, and we compare the health economic conclusions arising from these different definitions of best-fitting. For the simple model, outcomes evaluated over the best-fitting input sets according to the 2 weighted-sum GOF schemes were virtually nonoverlapping on the cost-effectiveness plane and resulted in very different incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ($79,300 [95% CI 72,500-87,600] v. $139,700 [95% CI 79,900-182,800] per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained). Input sets on the Pareto frontier spanned both regions ($79,000 [95% CI 64,900-156,200] per QALY gained). The TAVR model yielded similar results. Choices in generating a summary GOF score may result in different health economic conclusions. The Pareto frontier approach eliminates the need to make these choices by using an intuitive and transparent notion of optimality as the basis for identifying best-fitting input sets. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. "Updates to Model Algorithms & Inputs for the Biogenic ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have developed new canopy emission algorithms and land use data for BEIS. Simulations with BEIS v3.4 and these updates in CMAQ v5.0.2 are compared these changes to the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and evaluated the simulations against observations. This has resulted in improvements in model evaluations of modeled isoprene, NOx, and O3. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollution problem, but also in developing emission control policies and regulations for air quality improvements.

  11. Using Crowd Sensed Data as Input to Congestion Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehmann, Anders; Gross, Allan

    2016-01-01

    Emission of airborne pollutants and climate gasses from the transport sector is a growing problem, both in indus- trialised and developing countries. Planning of urban transport system is essential to minimise the environmental, health and economic impact of congestion in the transport system...... traffic systems, in less than an hour. The model is implemented in an open source database system, for easy interface with GIS resources and crowd sensed transportation data........ To get accurate and timely information on traffic congestion, and by extension information on air pollution, near real time traffic models are needed. We present in this paper an implementation of the Restricted Stochastic User equilibrium model, that is capable to model congestions for very large Urban...

  12. An Emprical Point Error Model for Tls Derived Point Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozendi, Mustafa; Akca, Devrim; Topan, Hüseyin

    2016-06-01

    The random error pattern of point clouds has significant effect on the quality of final 3D model. The magnitude and distribution of random errors should be modelled numerically. This work aims at developing such an anisotropic point error model, specifically for the terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) acquired 3D point clouds. A priori precisions of basic TLS observations, which are the range, horizontal angle and vertical angle, are determined by predefined and practical measurement configurations, performed at real-world test environments. A priori precision of horizontal (𝜎𝜃) and vertical (𝜎𝛼) angles are constant for each point of a data set, and can directly be determined through the repetitive scanning of the same environment. In our practical tests, precisions of the horizontal and vertical angles were found as 𝜎𝜃=±36.6𝑐𝑐 and 𝜎𝛼=±17.8𝑐𝑐, respectively. On the other hand, a priori precision of the range observation (𝜎𝜌) is assumed to be a function of range, incidence angle of the incoming laser ray, and reflectivity of object surface. Hence, it is a variable, and computed for each point individually by employing an empirically developed formula varying as 𝜎𝜌=±2-12 𝑚𝑚 for a FARO Focus X330 laser scanner. This procedure was followed by the computation of error ellipsoids of each point using the law of variance-covariance propagation. The direction and size of the error ellipsoids were computed by the principal components transformation. The usability and feasibility of the model was investigated in real world scenarios. These investigations validated the suitability and practicality of the proposed method.

  13. Sensitivity of disease management decision aids to temperature input errors associated with out-of-canopy and reduced time-resolution measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant disease management decision aids typically require inputs of weather elements such as air temperature. Whereas many disease models are created based on weather elements at the crop canopy, and with relatively fine time resolution, the decision aids commonly are implemented with hourly weather...

  14. Impact of Error in Lidar-Derived Canopy Height and Canopy Base Height on Modeled Wildfire Behavior in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maggi Kelly

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Light detection and ranging (Lidar data can be used to create wall-to-wall forest structure and fuel products that are required for wildfire behavior simulation models. We know that Lidar-derived forest parameters have a non-negligible error associated with them, yet we do not know how this error influences the results of fire behavior modeling that use these layers as inputs. Here, we evaluated the influence of error associated with two Lidar data products—canopy height (CH and canopy base height (CBH—on simulated fire behavior in a case study in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. We used a Monte Carlo simulation approach with expected randomized error added to each model input. Model 1 used the original, unmodified data, Model 2 incorporated error in the CH layer, and Model 3 incorporated error in the CBH layer. This sensitivity analysis showed that error in CH and CBH did not greatly influence the modeled conditional burn probability, fire size, or fire size distribution. We found that the expected error associated with CH and CBH did not greatly influence modeled results: conditional burn probability, fire size, and fire size distributions were very similar between Model 1 (original data, Model 2 (error added to CH, and Model 3 (error added to CBH. However, the impact of introduced error was more pronounced with CBH than with CH, and at lower canopy heights, the addition of error increased modeled canopy burn probability. Our work suggests that the use of Lidar data, even with its inherent error, can contribute to reliable and robust estimates of modeled forest fire behavior, and forest managers should be confident in using Lidar data products in their fire behavior modeling workflow.

  15. Error Modelling and Experimental Validation for a Planar 3-PPR Parallel Manipulator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Guanglei; Bai, Shaoping; Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the positioning error of a 3-PPR planar parallel manipulator is studied with an error model and experimental validation. First, the displacement and workspace are analyzed. An error model considering both configuration errors and joint clearance errors is established. Using this mo...

  16. Input-dependent wave attenuation in a critically-balanced model of cortex.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Hu Yan

    Full Text Available A number of studies have suggested that many properties of brain activity can be understood in terms of critical systems. However it is still not known how the long-range susceptibilities characteristic of criticality arise in the living brain from its local connectivity structures. Here we prove that a dynamically critically-poised model of cortex acquires an infinitely-long ranged susceptibility in the absence of input. When an input is presented, the susceptibility attenuates exponentially as a function of distance, with an increasing spatial attenuation constant (i.e., decreasing range the larger the input. This is in direct agreement with recent results that show that waves of local field potential activity evoked by single spikes in primary visual cortex of cat and macaque attenuate with a characteristic length that also increases with decreasing contrast of the visual stimulus. A susceptibility that changes spatial range with input strength can be thought to implement an input-dependent spatial integration: when the input is large, no additional evidence is needed in addition to the local input; when the input is weak, evidence needs to be integrated over a larger spatial domain to achieve a decision. Such input-strength-dependent strategies have been demonstrated in visual processing. Our results suggest that input-strength dependent spatial integration may be a natural feature of a critically-balanced cortical network.

  17. Reissner-Mindlin plate model with uncertain input data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlaváček, Ivan; Chleboun, J.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 17, Jun (2014), s. 71-88 ISSN 1468-1218 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : Reissner-Mindlin model * orthotropic plate Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.519, year: 2014 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1468121813001077

  18. Determining input values for a simple parametric model to estimate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimating soil evaporation (Es) is an important part of modelling vineyard evapotranspiration for irrigation purposes. Furthermore, quantification of possible soil texture and trellis effects is essential. Daily Es from six topsoils packed into lysimeters was measured under grapevines on slanting and vertical trellises, ...

  19. Land Building Models: Uncertainty in and Sensitivity to Input Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Vicksburg, MS: US Army Engineer Research and Development Center. An electronic copy of this CHETN is available from http://chl.erdc.usace.army.mil/chetn...Nourishment Module, Chapter 8. In Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) Model of Louisiana Coastal Area ( LCA ) Comprehensive

  20. Testing and Inference in Nonlinear Cointegrating Vector Error Correction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbek, Anders

    2013-01-01

    We analyze estimators and tests for a general class of vector error correction models that allows for asymmetric and nonlinear error correction. For a given number of cointegration relationships, general hypothesis testing is considered, where testing for linearity is of particular interest. Unde...... versions that are simple to compute. A simulation study shows that the finite-sample properties of the bootstrapped tests are satisfactory with good size and power properties for reasonable sample sizes....... the null of linearity, parameters of nonlinear components vanish, leading to a nonstandard testing problem. We apply so-called sup-tests to resolve this issue, which requires development of new(uniform) functional central limit theory and results for convergence of stochastic integrals. We provide a full......We analyze estimators and tests for a general class of vector error correction models that allows for asymmetric and nonlinear error correction. For a given number of cointegration relationships, general hypothesis testing is considered, where testing for linearity is of particular interest. Under...

  1. Scientific and technical advisory committee review of the nutrient inputs to the watershed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The following is a report by a STAC Review Team concerning the methods and documentation used by the Chesapeake Bay Partnership for evaluation of nutrient inputs to Phase 6 of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model. The “STAC Review of the Nutrient Inputs to the Watershed Model” (previously referred to...

  2. Crop growth modelling and crop yield forecasting using satellite derived meteorological inputs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de A.J.W.; Diepen, van K.

    2006-01-01

    One of the key challenges for operational crop monitoring and yield forecasting using crop models is to find spatially representative meteorological input data. Currently, weather inputs are often interpolated from low density networks of weather stations or derived from output from coarse (0.5

  3. Little Higgs model limits from LHC - Input for Snowmass 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reuter, Juergen; Tonini, Marco; Vries, Maikel de

    2013-07-01

    The status of the most prominent model implementations of the Little Higgs paradigm, the Littlest Higgs with and without discrete T parity as well as the Simplest Little Higgs are reviewed. For this, we are taking into account a fit to 21 electroweak precision observables from LEP, SLC, Tevatron together with the full 25 fb -1 of Higgs data reported from ATLAS and CMS at Moriond 2013. We also - focusing on the Littlest Higgs with T parity - include an outlook on corresponding direct searches at the 8 TeV LHC and their competitiveness with the EW and Higgs data regarding their exclusion potential. This contribution to the Snowmass procedure serves as a guideline which regions in parameter space of Little Higgs models are still compatible for the upcoming LHC runs and future experiments at the energy frontier. For this we propose two different benchmark scenarios for the Littlest Higgs with T parity, one with heavy mirror quarks, one with light ones.

  4. Financial impact of errors in business forecasting: a comparative study of linear models and neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudimar Pereira da Veiga

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The importance of demand forecasting as a management tool is a well documented issue. However, it is difficult to measure costs generated by forecasting errors and to find a model that assimilate the detailed operation of each company adequately. In general, when linear models fail in the forecasting process, more complex nonlinear models are considered. Although some studies comparing traditional models and neural networks have been conducted in the literature, the conclusions are usually contradictory. In this sense, the objective was to compare the accuracy of linear methods and neural networks with the current method used by the company. The results of this analysis also served as input to evaluate influence of errors in demand forecasting on the financial performance of the company. The study was based on historical data from five groups of food products, from 2004 to 2008. In general, one can affirm that all models tested presented good results (much better than the current forecasting method used, with mean absolute percent error (MAPE around 10%. The total financial impact for the company was 6,05% on annual sales.

  5. Modeling gene expression measurement error: a quasi-likelihood approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strimmer Korbinian

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Using suitable error models for gene expression measurements is essential in the statistical analysis of microarray data. However, the true probabilistic model underlying gene expression intensity readings is generally not known. Instead, in currently used approaches some simple parametric model is assumed (usually a transformed normal distribution or the empirical distribution is estimated. However, both these strategies may not be optimal for gene expression data, as the non-parametric approach ignores known structural information whereas the fully parametric models run the risk of misspecification. A further related problem is the choice of a suitable scale for the model (e.g. observed vs. log-scale. Results Here a simple semi-parametric model for gene expression measurement error is presented. In this approach inference is based an approximate likelihood function (the extended quasi-likelihood. Only partial knowledge about the unknown true distribution is required to construct this function. In case of gene expression this information is available in the form of the postulated (e.g. quadratic variance structure of the data. As the quasi-likelihood behaves (almost like a proper likelihood, it allows for the estimation of calibration and variance parameters, and it is also straightforward to obtain corresponding approximate confidence intervals. Unlike most other frameworks, it also allows analysis on any preferred scale, i.e. both on the original linear scale as well as on a transformed scale. It can also be employed in regression approaches to model systematic (e.g. array or dye effects. Conclusions The quasi-likelihood framework provides a simple and versatile approach to analyze gene expression data that does not make any strong distributional assumptions about the underlying error model. For several simulated as well as real data sets it provides a better fit to the data than competing models. In an example it also

  6. Some aspects of statistical modeling of human-error probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prairie, R.R.

    1982-01-01

    Human reliability analyses (HRA) are often performed as part of risk assessment and reliability projects. Recent events in nuclear power have shown the potential importance of the human element. There are several on-going efforts in the US and elsewhere with the purpose of modeling human error such that the human contribution can be incorporated into an overall risk assessment associated with one or more aspects of nuclear power. An effort that is described here uses the HRA (event tree) to quantify and model the human contribution to risk. As an example, risk analyses are being prepared on several nuclear power plants as part of the Interim Reliability Assessment Program (IREP). In this process the risk analyst selects the elements of his fault tree that could be contributed to by human error. He then solicits the HF analyst to do a HRA on this element

  7. Mechanistic interpretation of glass reaction: Input to kinetic model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.K.; Ebert, W.L.; Bradley, J.P.; Bourcier, W.L.

    1991-05-01

    Actinide-doped SRL 165 type glass was reacted in J-13 groundwater at 90 degree C for times up to 278 days. The reaction was characterized by both solution and solid analyses. The glass was seen to react nonstoichiometrically with preferred leaching of alkali metals and boron. High resolution electron microscopy revealed the formation of a complex layer structure which became separated from the underlying glass as the reaction progressed. The formation of the layer and its effect on continued glass reaction are discussed with respect to the current model for glass reaction used in the EQ3/6 computer simulation. It is concluded that the layer formed after 278 days is not protective and may eventually become fractured and generate particulates that may be transported by liquid water. 5 refs., 5 figs. , 3 tabs

  8. Mitigating Errors in External Respiratory Surrogate-Based Models of Tumor Position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malinowski, Kathleen T.; McAvoy, Thomas J.; George, Rohini; Dieterich, Sonja; D'Souza, Warren D.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the effect of tumor site, measurement precision, tumor–surrogate correlation, training data selection, model design, and interpatient and interfraction variations on the accuracy of external marker-based models of tumor position. Methods and Materials: Cyberknife Synchrony system log files comprising synchronously acquired positions of external markers and the tumor from 167 treatment fractions were analyzed. The accuracy of Synchrony, ordinary-least-squares regression, and partial-least-squares regression models for predicting the tumor position from the external markers was evaluated. The quantity and timing of the data used to build the predictive model were varied. The effects of tumor–surrogate correlation and the precision in both the tumor and the external surrogate position measurements were explored by adding noise to the data. Results: The tumor position prediction errors increased during the duration of a fraction. Increasing the training data quantities did not always lead to more accurate models. Adding uncorrelated noise to the external marker-based inputs degraded the tumor–surrogate correlation models by 16% for partial-least-squares and 57% for ordinary-least-squares. External marker and tumor position measurement errors led to tumor position prediction changes 0.3–3.6 times the magnitude of the measurement errors, varying widely with model algorithm. The tumor position prediction errors were significantly associated with the patient index but not with the fraction index or tumor site. Partial-least-squares was as accurate as Synchrony and more accurate than ordinary-least-squares. Conclusions: The accuracy of surrogate-based inferential models of tumor position was affected by all the investigated factors, except for the tumor site and fraction index.

  9. Approximate Minimization of the Regularized Expected Error over Kernel Models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kůrková, Věra; Sanguineti, M.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 3 (2008), s. 747-756 ISSN 0364-765X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/05/0557; GA ČR GA201/08/1744 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : suboptimal solutions * expected error * convex functionals * kernel methods * model complexity * rates of convergence Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.086, year: 2008

  10. Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Li, Gui-Long

    2001-01-01

    This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

  11. Remote sensing inputs to landscape models which predict future spatial land use patterns for hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, L. D.; Tom, C.; Nualchawee, K.

    1977-01-01

    A tropical forest area of Northern Thailand provided a test case of the application of the approach in more natural surroundings. Remote sensing imagery subjected to proper computer analysis has been shown to be a very useful means of collecting spatial data for the science of hydrology. Remote sensing products provide direct input to hydrologic models and practical data bases for planning large and small-scale hydrologic developments. Combining the available remote sensing imagery together with available map information in the landscape model provides a basis for substantial improvements in these applications.

  12. An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shirakawa, N.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

    2008-07-01

    To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial resolution of 1°×1° (longitude and latitude). This first part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces. The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir operation module, 452 major reservoirs with >1 km3 each of storage capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation. Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales, and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than ±20% in 14 of the 32 river basins and less than ±50% in 24 basins. The error in the peak was less than ±1 mo in 19 of the 27

  13. Estimation of error components in a multi-error linear regression model, with an application to track fitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fruehwirth, R.

    1993-01-01

    We present an estimation procedure of the error components in a linear regression model with multiple independent stochastic error contributions. After solving the general problem we apply the results to the estimation of the actual trajectory in track fitting with multiple scattering. (orig.)

  14. The Application of Model Life Table Systems in China: Assessment of System Bias and Error

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songbo Hu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available and projection. Although China is the world's most populous country with approximately a fifth of the world's population, none of the empirical tables from mainland China were used in calibrating the existing models. In this paper, we applied recent three model life table systems with different inputs to China mortality data to investigate whether or not these systems truly reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological patterns and whether or not system biases exist. The resulting residuals show that, in most cases, the male infant mortality rate (1q0, adult mortality rate (45q15 and old age mortality rate (20q60 have a strong bias towards being overestimated and the life expectancy at birth (e0 bias is underestimated. We also give the detailed results for each case. Furthermore, we found that the average relative errors (AREs for females are more than those for males for e0, 45q15 and 20q60, but for 1q0, males have larger AREs in the Wilmoth and Murray systems. We also found that the urban population has more errors than the rural population in almost all cases. Finally, by comparing the AREs with 10 other countries, we found the errors for China are more than those for other countries in most cases. It is concluded that these existing model life table systems cannot accurately reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution when applied to China on the basis of 5q0.

  15. The application of model life table systems in China: assessment of system bias and error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Songbo; Yu, Chuanhua

    2014-12-01

    and projection. Although China is the world's most populous country with approximately a fifth of the world's population, none of the empirical tables from mainland China were used in calibrating the existing models. In this paper, we applied recent three model life table systems with different inputs to China mortality data to investigate whether or not these systems truly reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological patterns and whether or not system biases exist. The resulting residuals show that, in most cases, the male infant mortality rate (1q0), adult mortality rate (45q15) and old age mortality rate (20q60) have a strong bias towards being overestimated and the life expectancy at birth (e0) bias is underestimated. We also give the detailed results for each case. Furthermore, we found that the average relative errors (AREs) for females are more than those for males for e0, 45q15 and 20q60, but for 1q0, males have larger AREs in the Wilmoth and Murray systems. We also found that the urban population has more errors than the rural population in almost all cases. Finally, by comparing the AREs with 10 other countries, we found the errors for China are more than those for other countries in most cases. It is concluded that these existing model life table systems cannot accurately reflect Chinese mortality epidemiological situations and trajectories. Therefore, model life tables should be used with caution when applied to China on the basis of 5q0.

  16. Topological quantum error correction in the Kitaev honeycomb model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yi-Chan; Brell, Courtney G.; Flammia, Steven T.

    2017-08-01

    The Kitaev honeycomb model is an approximate topological quantum error correcting code in the same phase as the toric code, but requiring only a 2-body Hamiltonian. As a frustrated spin model, it is well outside the commuting models of topological quantum codes that are typically studied, but its exact solubility makes it more amenable to analysis of effects arising in this noncommutative setting than a generic topologically ordered Hamiltonian. Here we study quantum error correction in the honeycomb model using both analytic and numerical techniques. We first prove explicit exponential bounds on the approximate degeneracy, local indistinguishability, and correctability of the code space. These bounds are tighter than can be achieved using known general properties of topological phases. Our proofs are specialized to the honeycomb model, but some of the methods may nonetheless be of broader interest. Following this, we numerically study noise caused by thermalization processes in the perturbative regime close to the toric code renormalization group fixed point. The appearance of non-topological excitations in this setting has no significant effect on the error correction properties of the honeycomb model in the regimes we study. Although the behavior of this model is found to be qualitatively similar to that of the standard toric code in most regimes, we find numerical evidence of an interesting effect in the low-temperature, finite-size regime where a preferred lattice direction emerges and anyon diffusion is geometrically constrained. We expect this effect to yield an improvement in the scaling of the lifetime with system size as compared to the standard toric code.

  17. Modelling of Multi Input Transfer Function for Rainfall Forecasting in Batu City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priska Arindya Purnama

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to model and forecast the rainfall in Batu City using multi input transfer function model based on air temperature, humidity, wind speed and cloud. Transfer function model is a multivariate time series model which consists of an output series (Yt sequence expected to be effected by an input series (Xt and other inputs in a group called a noise series (Nt. Multi input transfer function model obtained is (b1,s1,r1 (b2,s2,r2 (b3,s3,r3 (b4,s4,r4(pn,qn = (0,0,0 (23,0,0 (1,2,0 (0,0,0 ([5,8],2 and shows that air temperature on t-day affects rainfall on t-day, rainfall on t-day is influenced by air humidity in the previous 23 days, rainfall on t-day is affected by wind speed in the previous day , and rainfall on day t is affected by clouds on day t. The results of rainfall forecasting in Batu City with multi input transfer function model can be said to be accurate, because it produces relatively small RMSE value. The value of RMSE data forecasting training is 7.7921 while forecasting data testing is 4.2184. Multi-input transfer function model is suitable for rainfall in Batu City.

  18. Functional multiple indicators, multiple causes measurement error models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekwe, Carmen D; Zoh, Roger S; Bazer, Fuller W; Wu, Guoyao; Carroll, Raymond J

    2017-05-08

    Objective measures of oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production by mammals are used to predict their energy expenditure. Since energy expenditure is not directly observable, it can be viewed as a latent construct with multiple physical indirect measures such as respiratory quotient, volumetric oxygen consumption, and volumetric carbon dioxide production. Metabolic rate is defined as the rate at which metabolism occurs in the body. Metabolic rate is also not directly observable. However, heat is produced as a result of metabolic processes within the body. Therefore, metabolic rate can be approximated by heat production plus some errors. While energy expenditure and metabolic rates are correlated, they are not equivalent. Energy expenditure results from physical function, while metabolism can occur within the body without the occurrence of physical activities. In this manuscript, we present a novel approach for studying the relationship between metabolic rate and indicators of energy expenditure. We do so by extending our previous work on MIMIC ME models to allow responses that are sparsely observed functional data, defining the sparse functional multiple indicators, multiple cause measurement error (FMIMIC ME) models. The mean curves in our proposed methodology are modeled using basis splines. A novel approach for estimating the variance of the classical measurement error based on functional principal components is presented. The model parameters are estimated using the EM algorithm and a discussion of the model's identifiability is provided. We show that the defined model is not a trivial extension of longitudinal or functional data methods, due to the presence of the latent construct. Results from its application to data collected on Zucker diabetic fatty rats are provided. Simulation results investigating the properties of our approach are also presented. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  19. Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbæk, Anders

    We consider a class of vector nonlinear error correction models where the transfer function (or loadings) of the stationary relation- ships is nonlinear. This includes in particular the smooth transition models. A general representation theorem is given which establishes the dynamic properties...... and a linear trend in general. Gaussian likelihood-based estimators are considered for the long- run cointegration parameters, and the short-run parameters. Asymp- totic theory is provided for these and it is discussed to what extend asymptotic normality and mixed normaity can be found. A simulation study...

  20. High‐resolution trench photomosaics from image‐based modeling: Workflow and error analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reitman, Nadine G.; Bennett, Scott E. K.; Gold, Ryan D.; Briggs, Richard; Duross, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Photomosaics are commonly used to construct maps of paleoseismic trench exposures, but the conventional process of manually using image‐editing software is time consuming and produces undesirable artifacts and distortions. Herein, we document and evaluate the application of image‐based modeling (IBM) for creating photomosaics and 3D models of paleoseismic trench exposures, illustrated with a case‐study trench across the Wasatch fault in Alpine, Utah. Our results include a structure‐from‐motion workflow for the semiautomated creation of seamless, high‐resolution photomosaics designed for rapid implementation in a field setting. Compared with conventional manual methods, the IBM photomosaic method provides a more accurate, continuous, and detailed record of paleoseismic trench exposures in approximately half the processing time and 15%–20% of the user input time. Our error analysis quantifies the effect of the number and spatial distribution of control points on model accuracy. For this case study, an ∼87  m2 exposure of a benched trench photographed at viewing distances of 1.5–7 m yields a model with <2  cm root mean square error (rmse) with as few as six control points. Rmse decreases as more control points are implemented, but the gains in accuracy are minimal beyond 12 control points. Spreading control points throughout the target area helps to minimize error. We propose that 3D digital models and corresponding photomosaics should be standard practice in paleoseismic exposure archiving. The error analysis serves as a guide for future investigations that seek balance between speed and accuracy during photomosaic and 3D model construction.

  1. Error modelling and experimental validation of a planar 3-PPR parallel manipulator with joint clearances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Guanglei; Bai, Shaoping; Kepler, Jørgen Asbøl

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the error modelling and analysis of a 3-PPR planar parallel manipulator with joint clearances. The kinematics and the Cartesian workspace of the manipulator are analyzed. An error model is established with considerations of both configuration errors and joint clearances. Using...... this model, the upper bounds and distributions of the pose errors for this manipulator are established. The results are compared with experimental measurements and show the effectiveness of the error prediction model....

  2. Garbage In Garbage Out Garbage In : Improving the Inputs and Atmospheric Feedbacks in Seasonal Snowpack Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutmann, E. D.

    2016-12-01

    Without good input data, almost any model will produce bad output; however, alpine environments are extremely difficult places to make measurements of those inputs. Perhaps the least well known input is precipitation, but almost as important are temperature, wind, humidity, and radiation. Recent advances in atmospheric modeling have improved the fidelity of the output such that model output is sometimes better than interpolated observations, particularly for precipitation; however these models come with a tremendous computational cost. We describe the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) as one path to a computationally efficient method to improve snow pack model inputs over complex terrain. ICAR provides estimates of all inputs at a small fraction of the computational cost of a traditional atmospheric model such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Importantly, ICAR is able to simulate feedbacks from the land surface that are critical for estimating the air temperature. In addition, we will explore future improvements to the local wind fields including the use of statistics derived from limited duration Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model runs. These wind fields play a critical role in determing the redistribution of snow, and the redistribution of snow changes the surface topography and thus the wind field. We show that a proper depiction of snowpack redistribution can have a large affect on streamflow timing, and an even larger effect on the climate change signal of that streamflow.

  3. Modeling of heat transfer into a heat pipe for a localized heat input zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenfeld, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    A general model is presented for heat transfer into a heat pipe using a localized heat input. Conduction in the wall of the heat pipe and boiling in the interior structure are treated simultaneously. The model is derived from circumferential heat transfer in a cylindrical heat pipe evaporator and for radial heat transfer in a circular disk with boiling from the interior surface. A comparison is made with data for a localized heat input zone. Agreement between the theory and the model is good. This model can be used for design purposes if a boiling correlation is available. The model can be extended to provide improved predictions of heat pipe performance

  4. Error apportionment for atmospheric chemistry-transport models – a new approach to model evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Solazzo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, methods are proposed to diagnose the causes of errors in air quality (AQ modelling systems. We investigate the deviation between modelled and observed time series of surface ozone through a revised formulation for breaking down the mean square error (MSE into bias, variance and the minimum achievable MSE (mMSE. The bias measures the accuracy and implies the existence of systematic errors and poor representation of data complexity, the variance measures the precision and provides an estimate of the variability of the modelling results in relation to the observed data, and the mMSE reflects unsystematic errors and provides a measure of the associativity between the modelled and the observed fields through the correlation coefficient. Each of the error components is analysed independently and apportioned to resolved processes based on the corresponding timescale (long scale, synoptic, diurnal, and intra-day and as a function of model complexity.The apportionment of the error is applied to the AQMEII (Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative group of models, which embrace the majority of regional AQ modelling systems currently used in Europe and North America.The proposed technique has proven to be a compact estimator of the operational metrics commonly used for model evaluation (bias, variance, and correlation coefficient, and has the further benefit of apportioning the error to the originating timescale, thus allowing for a clearer diagnosis of the processes that caused the error.

  5. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Outkin, Alexander V. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bixler, Nathan E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vargas, Vanessa N [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  6. Nuclear fuel rod stored-energy uncertainty analysis: a study of error propagation in complicated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsen, A.R.; Cunningham, M.E.

    1980-01-01

    With the increasing sophistication and use of computer codes in the nuclear industry, there is a growing awareness of the need to identify and quantify the uncertainties of these codes. In any effort to model physical mechanisms, the results obtained from the model are subject to some degree of uncertainty. This uncertainty has two primary sources. First, there is uncertainty in the model's representation of reality. Second, there is an uncertainty in the input data required by the model. If individual models are combined into a predictive sequence, the uncertainties from an individual model will propagate through the sequence and add to the uncertainty of results later obtained. Nuclear fuel rod stored-energy models, characterized as a combination of numerous submodels, exemplify models so affected. Each submodel depends on output from previous calculations and may involve iterative interdependent submodel calculations for the solution. The iterative nature of the model and the cost of running the model severely limit the uncertainty analysis procedures. An approach for uncertainty analysis under these conditions was designed for the particular case of stored-energy models. It is assumed that the complicated model is correct, that a simplified model based on physical considerations can be designed to approximate the complicated model, and that linear error propagation techniques can be used on the simplified model

  7. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J.

    2006-06-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quantifying the errors in regional and global budgets. The sensitivity to vertical mixing through the parameterization of boundary layer turbulence is also examined. We find less ozone production in the boundary layer at higher resolution, consistent with slower chemical production in polluted emission regions and greater export of precursors. Agreement with ozonesonde and aircraft measurements made during the NASA TRACE-P campaign over the western Pacific in spring 2001 is consistently better at higher resolution. We demonstrate that the numerical errors in transport processes on a given resolution converge geometrically for a tracer at successively higher resolutions. The convergence in ozone production on progressing from T21 to T42, T63, and T106 resolution is likewise monotonic but indicates that there are still large errors at 120 km scales, suggesting that T106 resolution is too coarse to resolve regional ozone production. Diagnosing the ozone production and precursor transport that follow a short pulse of emissions over east Asia in springtime allows us to quantify the impacts of resolution on both regional and global ozone. Production close to continental emission regions is overestimated by 27% at T21 resolution, by 13% at T42 resolution, and by 5% at T106 resolution. However, subsequent ozone production in the free troposphere is not greatly affected. We find that the export of short-lived precursors such as NOx by convection is overestimated at coarse resolution.

  8. Structural Modeling of Measurement Error in Generalized Linear Models with Rasch Measures as Covariates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battauz, Michela; Bellio, Ruggero

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a structural analysis for generalized linear models when some explanatory variables are measured with error and the measurement error variance is a function of the true variables. The focus is on latent variables investigated on the basis of questionnaires and estimated using item response theory models. Latent variable…

  9. Allocatable Fixed Inputs and Two-Stage Aggregation Models of Multioutput Production Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Barry T. Coyle

    1993-01-01

    Allocation decisions for a fixed input such as land are incorporated into a two-stage aggregation model of multioutput production decisions. The resulting two-stage model is more realistic and is as tractable for empirical research as the standard model.

  10. Multivariate Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models with eXogenous Input

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Martey Addo

    2014-01-01

    This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm and LSE (least squares estimate) algorithm for this class of models is then provided via simulations.

  11. Reconstruction of neuronal input through modeling single-neuron dynamics and computations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin, Qing; Wang, Jiang; Yu, Haitao; Deng, Bin; Chan, Wai-lok

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models provide a mathematical description of neuron activity, which can better understand and quantify neural computations and corresponding biophysical mechanisms evoked by stimulus. In this paper, based on the output spike train evoked by the acupuncture mechanical stimulus, we present two different levels of models to describe the input-output system to achieve the reconstruction of neuronal input. The reconstruction process is divided into two steps: First, considering the neuronal spiking event as a Gamma stochastic process. The scale parameter and the shape parameter of Gamma process are, respectively, defined as two spiking characteristics, which are estimated by a state-space method. Then, leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model is used to mimic the response system and the estimated spiking characteristics are transformed into two temporal input parameters of LIF model, through two conversion formulas. We test this reconstruction method by three different groups of simulation data. All three groups of estimates reconstruct input parameters with fairly high accuracy. We then use this reconstruction method to estimate the non-measurable acupuncture input parameters. Results show that under three different frequencies of acupuncture stimulus conditions, estimated input parameters have an obvious difference. The higher the frequency of the acupuncture stimulus is, the higher the accuracy of reconstruction is.

  12. Reconstruction of neuronal input through modeling single-neuron dynamics and computations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qin, Qing; Wang, Jiang; Yu, Haitao; Deng, Bin, E-mail: dengbin@tju.edu.cn; Chan, Wai-lok [School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072 (China)

    2016-06-15

    Mathematical models provide a mathematical description of neuron activity, which can better understand and quantify neural computations and corresponding biophysical mechanisms evoked by stimulus. In this paper, based on the output spike train evoked by the acupuncture mechanical stimulus, we present two different levels of models to describe the input-output system to achieve the reconstruction of neuronal input. The reconstruction process is divided into two steps: First, considering the neuronal spiking event as a Gamma stochastic process. The scale parameter and the shape parameter of Gamma process are, respectively, defined as two spiking characteristics, which are estimated by a state-space method. Then, leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) model is used to mimic the response system and the estimated spiking characteristics are transformed into two temporal input parameters of LIF model, through two conversion formulas. We test this reconstruction method by three different groups of simulation data. All three groups of estimates reconstruct input parameters with fairly high accuracy. We then use this reconstruction method to estimate the non-measurable acupuncture input parameters. Results show that under three different frequencies of acupuncture stimulus conditions, estimated input parameters have an obvious difference. The higher the frequency of the acupuncture stimulus is, the higher the accuracy of reconstruction is.

  13. Semiparametric modeling: Correcting low-dimensional model error in parametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a semiparametric modeling approach is introduced as a paradigm for addressing model error arising from unresolved physical phenomena. Our approach compensates for model error by learning an auxiliary dynamical model for the unknown parameters. Practically, the proposed approach consists of the following steps. Given a physics-based model and a noisy data set of historical observations, a Bayesian filtering algorithm is used to extract a time-series of the parameter values. Subsequently, the diffusion forecast algorithm is applied to the retrieved time-series in order to construct the auxiliary model for the time evolving parameters. The semiparametric forecasting algorithm consists of integrating the existing physics-based model with an ensemble of parameters sampled from the probability density function of the diffusion forecast. To specify initial conditions for the diffusion forecast, a Bayesian semiparametric filtering method that extends the Kalman-based filtering framework is introduced. In difficult test examples, which introduce chaotically and stochastically evolving hidden parameters into the Lorenz-96 model, we show that our approach can effectively compensate for model error, with forecasting skill comparable to that of the perfect model.

  14. Use of regional climate model simulations as an input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akhtar, M.; Ahmad, N.; Booij, Martijn J.

    2009-01-01

    The most important climatological inputs required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). In this paper, meteorological station observations and

  15. Backstepping control for a 3DOF model helicopter with input and output constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Mei

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this article, a backstepping control scheme is developed for the motion control of a Three degrees of freedom (3DOF model helicopter with unknown external disturbance, modelling uncertainties and input and output constraints. In the developed robust control scheme, augmented state observers are applied to estimate the unknown states, unknown external disturbance and modelling uncertainties. Auxiliary systems are designed to deal with input saturation. A barrier Lyapunov function is employed to handle the output saturation. The stability of closed-loop system is proved by the Lyapunov method. Simulation results show that the designed control scheme is effective at dealing with the motion control of a 3DOF model helicopter in the presence of unknown external disturbance and modelling uncertainties, and input and output saturation.

  16. ASR in a Human Word Recognition Model: Generating Phonemic Input for Shortlist

    OpenAIRE

    Scharenborg, O.E.; Boves, L.W.J.; Veth, J.M. de

    2002-01-01

    The current version of the psycholinguistic model of human word recognition Shortlist suffers from two unrealistic constraints. First, the input of Shortlist must consist of a single string of phoneme symbols. Second, the current version of the search in Shortlist makes it difficult to deal with insertions and deletions in the input phoneme string. This research attempts to fully automatically derive a phoneme string from the acoustic signal that is as close as possible to the number of phone...

  17. PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL SEBAGAI PENENTU HARGA SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Kaluge

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research was to find the effect of profitability, rate of interest, GDP, and foreign exchange rate on stockprices. Approach used was error correction model. Profitability was indicated by variables EPS, and ROIwhile the SBI (1 month was used for representing interest rate. This research found that all variablessimultaneously affected the stock prices significantly. Partially, EPS, PER, and Foreign Exchange rate significantlyaffected the prices both in short run and long run. Interestingly that SBI and GDP did not affect theprices at all. The variable of ROI had only long run impact on the prices.

  18. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  19. Development of the MARS input model for Kori nuclear units 1 transient analyzer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, M.; Kim, K. D.; Lee, S. W.; Lee, Y. J.; Lee, W. J.; Chung, B. D.; Jeong, J. J.

    2004-11-01

    KAERI has been developing the 'NSSS transient analyzer' based on best-estimate codes for Kori Nuclear Units 1 plants. The MARS and RETRAN codes have been used as the best-estimate codes for the NSSS transient analyzer. Among these codes, the MARS code is adopted for realistic analysis of small- and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents, of which break size is greater than 2 inch diameter. So it is necessary to develop the MARS input model for Kori Nuclear Units 1 plants. This report includes the input model (hydrodynamic component and heat structure models) requirements and the calculation note for the MARS input data generation for Kori Nuclear Units 1 plant analyzer (see the Appendix). In order to confirm the validity of the input data, we performed the calculations for a steady state at 100 % power operation condition and a double-ended cold leg break LOCA. The results of the steady-state calculation agree well with the design data. The results of the LOCA calculation seem to be reasonable and consistent with those of other best-estimate calculations. Therefore, the MARS input data can be used as a base input deck for the MARS transient analyzer for Kori Nuclear Units 1

  20. Modelling the basic error tendencies of human operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reason, J.

    1988-01-01

    The paper outlines the primary structural features of human cognition: a limited, serial workspace interacting with a parallel distributed knowledge base. It is argued that the essential computational features of human cognition - to be captured by an adequate operator model - reside in the mechanisms by which stored knowledge structures are selected and brought into play. Two such computational 'primitives' are identified: similarity-matching and frequency-gambling. These two retrieval heuristics, it is argued, shape both the overall character of human performance (i.e. its heavy reliance on pattern-matching) and its basic error tendencies ('strong-but-wrong' responses, confirmation, similarity and frequency biases, and cognitive 'lock-up'). The various features of human cognition are integrated with a dynamic operator model capable of being represented in software form. This computer model, when run repeatedly with a variety of problem configurations, should produce a distribution of behaviours which, in total, simulate the general character of operator performance. (author)

  1. Modelling the basic error tendencies of human operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reason, James

    1988-01-01

    The paper outlines the primary structural features of human cognition: a limited, serial workspace interacting with a parallel distributed knowledge base. It is argued that the essential computational features of human cognition - to be captured by an adequate operator model - reside in the mechanisms by which stored knowledge structures are selected and brought into play. Two such computational 'primitives' are identified: similarity-matching and frequency-gambling. These two retrieval heuristics, it is argued, shape both the overall character of human performance (i.e. its heavy reliance on pattern-matching) and its basic error tendencies ('strong-but-wrong' responses, confirmation, similarity and frequency biases, and cognitive 'lock-up'). The various features of human cognition are integrated with a dynamic operator model capable of being represented in software form. This computer model, when run repeatedly with a variety of problem configurations, should produce a distribution of behaviours which, in toto, simulate the general character of operator performance. (author)

  2. Model-Based Angular Scan Error Correction of an Electrothermally-Actuated MEMS Mirror.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hao; Xu, Dacheng; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Chen, Qiao; Xie, Huikai; Li, Suiqiong

    2015-12-10

    In this paper, the actuation behavior of a two-axis electrothermal MEMS (Microelectromechanical Systems) mirror typically used in miniature optical scanning probes and optical switches is investigated. The MEMS mirror consists of four thermal bimorph actuators symmetrically located at the four sides of a central mirror plate. Experiments show that an actuation characteristics difference of as much as 4.0% exists among the four actuators due to process variations, which leads to an average angular scan error of 0.03°. A mathematical model between the actuator input voltage and the mirror-plate position has been developed to predict the actuation behavior of the mirror. It is a four-input, four-output model that takes into account the thermal-mechanical coupling and the differences among the four actuators; the vertical positions of the ends of the four actuators are also monitored. Based on this model, an open-loop control method is established to achieve accurate angular scanning. This model-based open loop control has been experimentally verified and is useful for the accurate control of the mirror. With this control method, the precise actuation of the mirror solely depends on the model prediction and does not need the real-time mirror position monitoring and feedback, greatly simplifying the MEMS control system.

  3. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...... values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  4. Sensitivity Analysis of Input Parameters for a Dynamic Food Chain Model DYNACON

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Won Tae; Lee, Geun Chang; Han, Moon Hee; Cho, Gyu Seong

    2000-01-01

    The sensitivity analysis of input parameters for a dynamic food chain model DYNACON was conducted as a function of deposition data for the long-lived radionuclides ( 137 Cs, 90 Sr). Also, the influence of input parameters for the short and long-terms contamination of selected foodstuffs (cereals, leafy vegetables, milk) was investigated. The input parameters were sampled using the LHS technique, and their sensitivity indices represented as PRCC. The sensitivity index was strongly dependent on contamination period as well as deposition data. In case of deposition during the growing stages of plants, the input parameters associated with contamination by foliar absorption were relatively important in long-term contamination as well as short-term contamination. They were also important in short-term contamination in case of deposition during the non-growing stages. In long-term contamination, the influence of input parameters associated with foliar absorption decreased, while the influence of input parameters associated with root uptake increased. These phenomena were more remarkable in case of the deposition of non-growing stages than growing stages, and in case of 90 Sr deposition than 137 Cs deposition. In case of deposition during growing stages of pasture, the input parameters associated with the characteristics of cattle such as feed-milk transfer factor and daily intake rate of cattle were relatively important in contamination of milk

  5. The interspike interval of a cable model neuron with white noise input.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuckwell, H C; Wan, F Y; Wong, Y S

    1984-01-01

    The firing time of a cable model neuron in response to white noise current injection is investigated with various methods. The Fourier decomposition of the depolarization leads to partial differential equations for the moments of the firing time. These are solved by perturbation and numerical methods, and the results obtained are in excellent agreement with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. The convergence of the random Fourier series is found to be very slow for small times so that when the firing time is small it is more efficient to simulate the solution of the stochastic cable equation directly using the two different representations of the Green's function, one which converges rapidly for small times and the other which converges rapidly for large times. The shape of the interspike interval density is found to depend strongly on input position. The various shapes obtained for different input positions resemble those for real neurons. The coefficient of variation of the interspike interval decreases monotonically as the distance between the input and trigger zone increases. A diffusion approximation for a nerve cell receiving Poisson input is considered and input/output frequency relations obtained for different input sites. The cases of multiple trigger zones and multiple input sites are briefly discussed.

  6. Input data requirements for performance modelling and monitoring of photovoltaic plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gavriluta, Anamaria Florina; Spataru, Sergiu; Sera, Dezso

    2018-01-01

    This work investigates the input data requirements in the context of performance modeling of thin-film photovoltaic (PV) systems. The analysis focuses on the PVWatts performance model, well suited for on-line performance monitoring of PV strings, due to its low number of parameters and high...... accuracy. The work aims to identify the minimum amount of input data required for parameterizing an accurate model of the PV plant. The analysis was carried out for both amorphous silicon (a-Si) and cadmium telluride (CdTe), using crystalline silicon (c-Si) as a base for comparison. In the studied cases...

  7. Uncertainty and error in complex plasma chemistry models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Miles M.

    2015-06-01

    Chemistry models that include dozens of species and hundreds to thousands of reactions are common in low-temperature plasma physics. The rate constants used in such models are uncertain, because they are obtained from some combination of experiments and approximate theories. Since the predictions of these models are a function of the rate constants, these predictions must also be uncertain. However, systematic investigations of the influence of uncertain rate constants on model predictions are rare to non-existent. In this work we examine a particular chemistry model, for helium-oxygen plasmas. This chemistry is of topical interest because of its relevance to biomedical applications of atmospheric pressure plasmas. We trace the primary sources for every rate constant in the model, and hence associate an error bar (or equivalently, an uncertainty) with each. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to quantify the uncertainty in predicted plasma species densities caused by the uncertainty in the rate constants. Under the conditions investigated, the range of uncertainty in most species densities is a factor of two to five. However, the uncertainty can vary strongly for different species, over time, and with other plasma conditions. There are extreme (pathological) cases where the uncertainty is more than a factor of ten. One should therefore be cautious in drawing any conclusion from plasma chemistry modelling, without first ensuring that the conclusion in question survives an examination of the related uncertainty.

  8. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP : A new semi-closed input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Quanrun; Dietzenbacher, Erik; Los, Bart; Yang, Cuihong

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying

  9. Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koks, E.E.; Carrera, L.; Jonkeren, O.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Husby, T.G.; Thissen, M.; Standardi, G.; Mysiak, J.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of

  10. Logistics flows and enterprise input-output models: aggregate and disaggregate analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albino, V.; Yazan, Devrim; Messeni Petruzzelli, A.; Okogbaa, O.G.

    2011-01-01

    In the present paper, we propose the use of enterprise input-output (EIO) models to describe and analyse the logistics flows considering spatial issues and related environmental effects associated with production and transportation processes. In particular, transportation is modelled as a specific

  11. GEN-IV Benchmarking of Triso Fuel Performance Models under accident conditions modeling input data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collin, Blaise Paul [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This document presents the benchmark plan for the calculation of particle fuel performance on safety testing experiments that are representative of operational accidental transients. The benchmark is dedicated to the modeling of fission product release under accident conditions by fuel performance codes from around the world, and the subsequent comparison to post-irradiation experiment (PIE) data from the modeled heating tests. The accident condition benchmark is divided into three parts: • The modeling of a simplified benchmark problem to assess potential numerical calculation issues at low fission product release. • The modeling of the AGR-1 and HFR-EU1bis safety testing experiments. • The comparison of the AGR-1 and HFR-EU1bis modeling results with PIE data. The simplified benchmark case, thereafter named NCC (Numerical Calculation Case), is derived from “Case 5” of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on coated particle fuel technology [IAEA 2012]. It is included so participants can evaluate their codes at low fission product release. “Case 5” of the IAEA CRP-6 showed large code-to-code discrepancies in the release of fission products, which were attributed to “effects of the numerical calculation method rather than the physical model” [IAEA 2012]. The NCC is therefore intended to check if these numerical effects subsist. The first two steps imply the involvement of the benchmark participants with a modeling effort following the guidelines and recommendations provided by this document. The third step involves the collection of the modeling results by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the comparison of these results with the available PIE data. The objective of this document is to provide all necessary input data to model the benchmark cases, and to give some methodology guidelines and recommendations in order to make all results suitable for comparison with each other. The participants should read

  12. The regression-calibration method for fitting generalized linear models with additive measurement error

    OpenAIRE

    James W. Hardin; Henrik Schmeidiche; Raymond J. Carroll

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses and illustrates the method of regression calibration. This is a straightforward technique for fitting models with additive measurement error. We present this discussion in terms of generalized linear models (GLMs) following the notation defined in Hardin and Carroll (2003). Discussion will include specified measurement error, measurement error estimated by replicate error-prone proxies, and measurement error estimated by instrumental variables. The discussion focuses on s...

  13. Explaining quantitative variation in the rate of Optional Infinitive errors across languages: a comparison of MOSAIC and the Variational Learning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freudenthal, Daniel; Pine, Julian; Gobet, Fernand

    2010-06-01

    In this study, we use corpus analysis and computational modelling techniques to compare two recent accounts of the OI stage: Legate & Yang's (2007) Variational Learning Model and Freudenthal, Pine & Gobet's (2006) Model of Syntax Acquisition in Children. We first assess the extent to which each of these accounts can explain the level of OI errors across five different languages (English, Dutch, German, French and Spanish). We then differentiate between the two accounts by testing their predictions about the relation between children's OI errors and the distribution of infinitival verb forms in the input language. We conclude that, although both accounts fit the cross-linguistic patterning of OI errors reasonably well, only MOSAIC is able to explain why verbs that occur more frequently as infinitives than as finite verb forms in the input also occur more frequently as OI errors than as correct finite verb forms in the children's output.

  14. Development of an Input Model to MELCOR 1.8.5 for the Oskarshamn 3 BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nilsson, Lars [Lentek, Nykoeping (Sweden)

    2006-05-15

    An input model has been prepared to the code MELCOR 1.8.5 for the Swedish Oskarshamn 3 Boiling Water Reactor (O3). This report describes the modelling work and the various files which comprise the input deck. Input data are mainly based on original drawings and system descriptions made available by courtesy of OKG AB. Comparison and check of some primary system data were made against an O3 input file to the SCDAP/RELAP5 code that was used in the SARA project. Useful information was also obtained from the FSAR (Final Safety Analysis Report) for O3 and the SKI report '2003 Stoerningshandboken BWR'. The input models the O3 reactor at its current state with the operating power of 3300 MW{sub th}. One aim with this work is that the MELCOR input could also be used for power upgrading studies. All fuel assemblies are thus assumed to consist of the new Westinghouse-Atom's SVEA-96 Optima2 fuel. MELCOR is a severe accident code developed by Sandia National Laboratory under contract from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). MELCOR is a successor to STCP (Source Term Code Package) and has thus a long evolutionary history. The input described here is adapted to the latest version 1.8.5 available when the work began. It was released the year 2000, but a new version 1.8.6 was distributed recently. Conversion to the new version is recommended. (During the writing of this report still another code version, MELCOR 2.0, has been announced to be released within short.) In version 1.8.5 there is an option to describe the accident progression in the lower plenum and the melt-through of the reactor vessel bottom in more detail by use of the Bottom Head (BH) package developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory especially for BWRs. This is in addition to the ordinary MELCOR COR package. Since problems arose running with the BH input two versions of the O3 input deck were produced, a NONBH and a BH deck. The BH package is no longer a separate package in the new 1

  15. Automatic component calibration and error diagnostics for model-based accelerator control. Phase I final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carl Stern; Martin Lee

    1999-01-01

    Phase I work studied the feasibility of developing software for automatic component calibration and error correction in beamline optics models. A prototype application was developed that corrects quadrupole field strength errors in beamline models

  16. Mean absolute error and root mean square error: which is the better metric for assessing model performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brassington, Gary

    2017-04-01

    The mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) are two metrics that are often used interchangeably as measures of ocean forecast accuracy. Recent literature has debated which of these should be preferred though their conclusions have largely been based on empirical arguments. We note that in general, RM SE2 = M AE2 + V ARk [|ɛ|] PIC PIC such that RMSE includes both the MAE as well as additional information related to the variance (biased estimator) of the errors ɛ with sample size k. The greater sensitivity of RMSE to a small number of outliers is directly attributable to the variance of absolute error. Further statistical properties for both metrics are derived and compared based on the assumption that the errors are Gaussian. For an unbiased (or bias corrected) model both MAE and RMSE are shown to estimate the total error standard deviation to within a constant coefficient such that ° -- M AE ≈ 2/πRM SE PIC . Both metrics have comparable behaviour in response to model bias and asymptote to the model bias as the bias increases. MAE is shown to be an unbiased estimator while RMSE is a biased estimator. MAE also has a lower sample variance compared with RMSE indicating MAE is the most robust choice. For real-time applications where there is a likelihood of "bad" observations we recommend ° - ° ---° - π- -1- π- π- TESD = 2 M AE ± √k- 2 - 1 2M AE PIC as an unbiased estimator of the total error standard deviation with error estimates (one standard deviation) based on the sample variance and defined as a scaling of the MAE itself. A sample size (k) on the order of 90 and 9000 provides an error scaling of 10% and 1% respectively. Nonetheless if the model performance is being analysed using a large sample of delayed-mode quality controlled observations then RMSE might be preferred where the second moment sensitivity to large model errors is important. Alternatively for model intercomparisons the information might compactly represented by a

  17. Design of vaccination and fumigation on Host-Vector Model by input-output linearization method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Naiborhu, Janson; Nuraini, Nuning

    2017-03-01

    Here, we analyze the Host-Vector Model and proposed design of vaccination and fumigation to control infectious population by using feedback control especially input-output liniearization method. Host population is divided into three compartments: susceptible, infectious and recovery. Whereas the vector population is divided into two compartment such as susceptible and infectious. In this system, vaccination and fumigation treat as input factors and infectious population as output result. The objective of design is to stabilize of the output asymptotically tend to zero. We also present the examples to illustrate the design model.

  18. Peak-counts blood flow model-errors and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullani, N.A.; Marani, S.K.; Ekas, R.D.; Gould, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    The peak-counts model has several advantages, but its use may be limited due to the condition that the venous egress may not be negligible at the time of peak-counts. Consequently, blood flow measurements by the peak-counts model will depend on the bolus size, bolus duration, and the minimum transit time of the bolus through the region of interest. The effect of bolus size on the measurement of extraction fraction and blood flow was evaluated by injecting 1 to 30ml of rubidium chloride in the femoral vein of a dog and measuring the myocardial activity with a beta probe over the heart. Regional blood flow measurements were not found to vary with bolus sizes up to 30ml. The effect of bolus duration was studied by injecting a 10cc bolus of tracer at different speeds in the femoral vein of a dog. All intravenous injections undergo a broadening of the bolus duration due to the transit time of the tracer through the lungs and the heart. This transit time was found to range from 4-6 second FWHM and dominates the duration of the bolus to the myocardium for up to 3 second injections. A computer simulation has been carried out in which the different parameters of delay time, extraction fraction, and bolus duration can be changed to assess the errors in the peak-counts model. The results of the simulations show that the error will be greatest for short transit time delays and for low extraction fractions

  19. Recurrent network models for perfect temporal integration of fluctuating correlated inputs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Okamoto

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Temporal integration of input is essential to the accumulation of information in various cognitive and behavioral processes, and gradually increasing neuronal activity, typically occurring within a range of seconds, is considered to reflect such computation by the brain. Some psychological evidence suggests that temporal integration by the brain is nearly perfect, that is, the integration is non-leaky, and the output of a neural integrator is accurately proportional to the strength of input. Neural mechanisms of perfect temporal integration, however, remain largely unknown. Here, we propose a recurrent network model of cortical neurons that perfectly integrates partially correlated, irregular input spike trains. We demonstrate that the rate of this temporal integration changes proportionately to the probability of spike coincidences in synaptic inputs. We analytically prove that this highly accurate integration of synaptic inputs emerges from integration of the variance of the fluctuating synaptic inputs, when their mean component is kept constant. Highly irregular neuronal firing and spike coincidences are the major features of cortical activity, but they have been separately addressed so far. Our results suggest that the efficient protocol of information integration by cortical networks essentially requires both features and hence is heterotic.

  20. Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning: Machine-learning-based error model for surrogates of dynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.

    2017-01-01

    A machine learning–based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (eg, random forests, and LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed “error indicators” (ie, features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering) and subsequently constructs a “local” regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider 2 uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (eg, time-integrated errors). We then apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil-water subsurface flow simulations, with time-varying well-control (bottom-hole pressure) parameters. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization in conjunction with proper orthogonal decomposition. Moreover, when the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well

  1. Development of algorithm for depreciation costs allocation in dynamic input-output industrial enterprise model

    OpenAIRE

    Keller Alevtina; Vinogradova Tatyana

    2017-01-01

    The article considers the issue of allocation of depreciation costs in the dynamic inputoutput model of an industrial enterprise. Accounting the depreciation costs in such a model improves the policy of fixed assets management. It is particularly relevant to develop the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs in the construction of dynamic input-output model of an industrial enterprise, since such enterprises have a significant amount of fixed assets. Implementation of terms of the...

  2. Regularized multivariate regression models with skew-t error distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Lianfu

    2014-06-01

    We consider regularization of the parameters in multivariate linear regression models with the errors having a multivariate skew-t distribution. An iterative penalized likelihood procedure is proposed for constructing sparse estimators of both the regression coefficient and inverse scale matrices simultaneously. The sparsity is introduced through penalizing the negative log-likelihood by adding L1-penalties on the entries of the two matrices. Taking advantage of the hierarchical representation of skew-t distributions, and using the expectation conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm, we reduce the problem to penalized normal likelihood and develop a procedure to minimize the ensuing objective function. Using a simulation study the performance of the method is assessed, and the methodology is illustrated using a real data set with a 24-dimensional response vector. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  3. Error modelling of quantum Hall array resistance standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzano, Martina; Oe, Takehiko; Ortolano, Massimo; Callegaro, Luca; Kaneko, Nobu-Hisa

    2018-04-01

    Quantum Hall array resistance standards (QHARSs) are integrated circuits composed of interconnected quantum Hall effect elements that allow the realization of virtually arbitrary resistance values. In recent years, techniques were presented to efficiently design QHARS networks. An open problem is that of the evaluation of the accuracy of a QHARS, which is affected by contact and wire resistances. In this work, we present a general and systematic procedure for the error modelling of QHARSs, which is based on modern circuit analysis techniques and Monte Carlo evaluation of the uncertainty. As a practical example, this method of analysis is applied to the characterization of a 1 MΩ QHARS developed by the National Metrology Institute of Japan. Software tools are provided to apply the procedure to other arrays.

  4. Stream Heat Budget Modeling of Groundwater Inputs: Model Development and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glose, A.; Lautz, L. K.

    2012-12-01

    Models of physical processes in fluvial systems are useful for improving understanding of hydrologic systems and for predicting future conditions. Process-based models of fluid flow and heat transport in fluvial systems can be used to quantify unknown spatial and temporal patterns of hydrologic fluxes, such as groundwater discharge, and to predict system response to future change. In this study, a stream heat budget model was developed and calibrated to observed stream water temperature data for Meadowbrook Creek in Syracuse, NY. The one-dimensional (longitudinal), transient stream temperature model is programmed in Matlab and solves the equations for heat and fluid transport using a Crank-Nicholson finite difference scheme. The model considers four meteorologically driven heat fluxes: shortwave solar radiation, longwave radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux. Streambed conduction is also considered. Input data for the model were collected from June 13-18, 2012 over a 500 m reach of Meadowbrook Creek, a first order urban stream that drains a retention pond in the city of Syracuse, NY. Stream temperature data were recorded every 20 m longitudinally in the stream at 5-minute intervals using iButtons (model DS1922L, accuracy of ±0.5°C, resolution of 0.0625°C). Meteorological data, including air temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed, were recorded at 5-minute intervals using an on-site weather station. Groundwater temperature was measured in wells adjacent to the stream. Stream dimensions, bed temperatures, and type of bed sediments were also collected. A constant rate tracer injection of Rhodamine WT was used to quantify groundwater inputs every 10 m independently to validate model results. Stream temperatures fluctuated diurnally by ~3-5 °C during the observation period with temperatures peaking around 2 pm and cooling overnight, reaching a minimum between 6 and 7 am. Spatially, the stream shows a cooling trend along the

  5. The effect of error models in the multiscale inversion of binary permeability fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, J.; Bloemenwaanders, B. V.; McKenna, S. A.; Marzouk, Y. M.

    2010-12-01

    We present results from a recently developed multiscale inversion technique for binary media, with emphasis on the effect of subgrid model errors on the inversion. Binary media are a useful fine-scale representation of heterogeneous porous media. Averaged properties of the binary field representations can be used to characterize flow through the porous medium at the macroscale. Both direct measurements of the averaged properties and upscaling are complicated and may not provide accurate results. However, it may be possible to infer upscaled properties of the binary medium from indirect measurements at the coarse scale. Multiscale inversion, performed with a subgrid model to connect disparate scales together, can also yield information on the fine-scale properties. We model the binary medium using truncated Gaussian fields, and develop a subgrid model for the upscaled permeability based on excursion sets of those fields. The subgrid model requires an estimate of the proportion of inclusions at the block scale as well as some geometrical parameters of the inclusions as inputs, and predicts the effective permeability. The inclusion proportion is assumed to be spatially varying, modeled using Gaussian processes and represented using a truncated Karhunen-Louve (KL) expansion. This expansion is used, along with the subgrid model, to pose as a Bayesian inverse problem for the KL weights and the geometrical parameters of the inclusions. The model error is represented in two different ways: (1) as a homoscedastic error and (2) as a heteroscedastic error, dependent on inclusion proportionality and geometry. The error models impact the form of the likelihood function in the expression for the posterior density of the objects of inference. The problem is solved using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, and joint posterior distributions are developed for the KL weights and inclusion geometry. Effective permeabilities and tracer breakthrough times at a few

  6. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Fortems-Cheney, A.; Szopa, S.; Saunois, M.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bian, H.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M.P.; Gloor, E.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S.R.; Krol, M.C.; Patra, P.K.; Prinn, R.G.; Rigby, M.; Saito, R.; Wilson, C.

    2013-01-01

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise,

  7. Volcanic ash modeling with the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model: quantification of offline modeling errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Alejandro; Folch, Arnau

    2018-03-01

    Volcanic ash modeling systems are used to simulate the atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash and to generate forecasts that quantify the impacts from volcanic eruptions on infrastructures, air quality, aviation, and climate. The efficiency of response and mitigation actions is directly associated with the accuracy of the volcanic ash cloud detection and modeling systems. Operational forecasts build on offline coupled modeling systems in which meteorological variables are updated at the specified coupling intervals. Despite the concerns from other communities regarding the accuracy of this strategy, the quantification of the systematic errors and shortcomings associated with the offline modeling systems has received no attention. This paper employs the NMMB-MONARCH-ASH model to quantify these errors by employing different quantitative and categorical evaluation scores. The skills of the offline coupling strategy are compared against those from an online forecast considered to be the best estimate of the true outcome. Case studies are considered for a synthetic eruption with constant eruption source parameters and for two historical events, which suitably illustrate the severe aviation disruptive effects of European (2010 Eyjafjallajökull) and South American (2011 Cordón Caulle) volcanic eruptions. Evaluation scores indicate that systematic errors due to the offline modeling are of the same order of magnitude as those associated with the source term uncertainties. In particular, traditional offline forecasts employed in operational model setups can result in significant uncertainties, failing to reproduce, in the worst cases, up to 45-70 % of the ash cloud of an online forecast. These inconsistencies are anticipated to be even more relevant in scenarios in which the meteorological conditions change rapidly in time. The outcome of this paper encourages operational groups responsible for real-time advisories for aviation to consider employing computationally

  8. Input-Output model for waste management plan for Nigeria | Njoku ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An Input-Output Model for Waste Management Plan has been developed for Nigeria based on Leontief concept and life cycle analysis. Waste was considered as source of pollution, loss of resources, and emission of green house gasses from bio-chemical treatment and decomposition, with negative impact on the ...

  9. Land cover models to predict non-point nutrient inputs for selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    WQSAM is a practical water quality model for use in guiding southern African water quality management. However, the estimation of non-point nutrient inputs within WQSAM is uncertain, as it is achieved through a combination of calibration and expert knowledge. Non-point source loads can be correlated to particular land ...

  10. Comparison of plasma input and reference tissue models for analysing [(11)C]flumazenil studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klumpers, Ursula M. H.; Veltman, Dick J.; Boellaard, Ronald; Comans, Emile F.; Zuketto, Cassandra; Yaqub, Maqsood; Mourik, Jurgen E. M.; Lubberink, Mark; Hoogendijk, Witte J. G.; Lammertsma, Adriaan A.

    2008-01-01

    A single-tissue compartment model with plasma input is the established method for analysing [(11)C]flumazenil ([(11)C]FMZ) studies. However, arterial cannulation and measurement of metabolites are time-consuming. Therefore, a reference tissue approach is appealing, but this approach has not been

  11. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in The Netherlands: A regional input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise and uniform definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model is constructed for multifunctional

  12. The economic impact of multifunctional agriculture in Dutch regions: An input-output model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heringa, P.W.; Heide, van der C.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Multifunctional agriculture is a broad concept lacking a precise definition. Moreover, little is known about the societal importance of multifunctional agriculture. This paper is an empirical attempt to fill this gap. To this end, an input-output model was constructed for multifunctional agriculture

  13. A New Paradigm for Diagnosing Contributions to Model Aerosol Forcing Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. L.; Feldman, D. R.; Freidenreich, S.; Paynter, D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Collins, W. D.; Pincus, R.

    2017-12-01

    A new paradigm in benchmark absorption-scattering radiative transfer is presented that enables both the globally averaged and spatially resolved testing of climate model radiation parameterizations in order to uncover persistent sources of biases in the aerosol instantaneous radiative effect (IRE). A proof of concept is demonstrated with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM4 and Community Earth System Model 1.2.2 climate models. Instead of prescribing atmospheric conditions and aerosols, as in prior intercomparisons, native snapshots of the atmospheric state and aerosol optical properties from the participating models are used as inputs to an accurate radiation solver to uncover model-relevant biases. These diagnostic results show that the models' aerosol IRE bias is of the same magnitude as the persistent range cited ( 1 W/m2) and also varies spatially and with intrinsic aerosol optical properties. The findings underscore the significance of native model error analysis and its dispositive ability to diagnose global biases, confirming its fundamental value for the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project.

  14. A Java simulator of Rescorla and Wagner's prediction error model and configural cue extensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Eduardo; Mondragón, Esther; Fernández, Alberto

    2012-10-01

    In this paper we present the "R&W Simulator" (version 3.0), a Java simulator of Rescorla and Wagner's prediction error model of learning. It is able to run whole experimental designs, and compute and display the associative values of elemental and compound stimuli simultaneously, as well as use extra configural cues in generating compound values; it also permits change of the US parameters across phases. The simulator produces both numerical and graphical outputs, and includes a functionality to export the results to a data processor spreadsheet. It is user-friendly, and built with a graphical interface designed to allow neuroscience researchers to input the data in their own "language". It is a cross-platform simulator, so it does not require any special equipment, operative system or support program, and does not need installation. The "R&W Simulator" (version 3.0) is available free. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Hand-eye calibration using a target registration error model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Elvis C S; Morgan, Isabella; Jayarathne, Uditha; Ma, Burton; Peters, Terry M

    2017-10-01

    Surgical cameras are prevalent in modern operating theatres and are often used as a surrogate for direct vision. Visualisation techniques (e.g. image fusion) made possible by tracking the camera require accurate hand-eye calibration between the camera and the tracking system. The authors introduce the concept of 'guided hand-eye calibration', where calibration measurements are facilitated by a target registration error (TRE) model. They formulate hand-eye calibration as a registration problem between homologous point-line pairs. For each measurement, the position of a monochromatic ball-tip stylus (a point) and its projection onto the image (a line) is recorded, and the TRE of the resulting calibration is predicted using a TRE model. The TRE model is then used to guide the placement of the calibration tool, so that the subsequent measurement minimises the predicted TRE. Assessing TRE after each measurement produces accurate calibration using a minimal number of measurements. As a proof of principle, they evaluated guided calibration using a webcam and an endoscopic camera. Their endoscopic camera results suggest that millimetre TRE is achievable when at least 15 measurements are acquired with the tracker sensor ∼80 cm away on the laparoscope handle for a target ∼20 cm away from the camera.

  16. Design, Fabrication, and Modeling of a Novel Dual-Axis Control Input PZT Gyroscope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Yang Chang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Conventional gyroscopes are equipped with a single-axis control input, limiting their performance. Although researchers have proposed control algorithms with dual-axis control inputs to improve gyroscope performance, most have verified the control algorithms through numerical simulations because they lacked practical devices with dual-axis control inputs. The aim of this study was to design a piezoelectric gyroscope equipped with a dual-axis control input so that researchers may experimentally verify those control algorithms in future. Designing a piezoelectric gyroscope with a dual-axis control input is more difficult than designing a conventional gyroscope because the control input must be effective over a broad frequency range to compensate for imperfections, and the multiple mode shapes in flexural deformations complicate the relation between flexural deformation and the proof mass position. This study solved these problems by using a lead zirconate titanate (PZT material, introducing additional electrodes for shielding, developing an optimal electrode pattern, and performing calibrations of undesired couplings. The results indicated that the fabricated device could be operated at 5.5±1 kHz to perform dual-axis actuations and position measurements. The calibration of the fabricated device was completed by system identifications of a new dynamic model including gyroscopic motions, electromechanical coupling, mechanical coupling, electrostatic coupling, and capacitive output impedance. Finally, without the assistance of control algorithms, the “open loop sensitivity” of the fabricated gyroscope was 1.82 μV/deg/s with a nonlinearity of 9.5% full-scale output. This sensitivity is comparable with those of other PZT gyroscopes with single-axis control inputs.

  17. Linear and quadratic models of point process systems: contributions of patterned input to output.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, K A; Rosenberg, J R

    2012-08-01

    In the 1880's Volterra characterised a nonlinear system using a functional series connecting continuous input and continuous output. Norbert Wiener, in the 1940's, circumvented problems associated with the application of Volterra series to physical problems by deriving from it a new series of terms that are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Gaussian processes. Subsequently, Brillinger, in the 1970's, introduced a point-process analogue of Volterra's series connecting point-process inputs to the instantaneous rate of point-process output. We derive here a new series from this analogue in which its terms are mutually uncorrelated with respect to Poisson processes. This new series expresses how patterned input in a spike train, represented by third-order cross-cumulants, is converted into the instantaneous rate of an output point-process. Given experimental records of suitable duration, the contribution of arbitrary patterned input to an output process can, in principle, be determined. Solutions for linear and quadratic point-process models with one and two inputs and a single output are investigated. Our theoretical results are applied to isolated muscle spindle data in which the spike trains from the primary and secondary endings from the same muscle spindle are recorded in response to stimulation of one and then two static fusimotor axons in the absence and presence of a random length change imposed on the parent muscle. For a fixed mean rate of input spikes, the analysis of the experimental data makes explicit which patterns of two input spikes contribute to an output spike. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Design, Fabrication, and Modeling of a Novel Dual-Axis Control Input PZT Gyroscope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Cheng-Yang; Chen, Tsung-Lin

    2017-10-31

    Conventional gyroscopes are equipped with a single-axis control input, limiting their performance. Although researchers have proposed control algorithms with dual-axis control inputs to improve gyroscope performance, most have verified the control algorithms through numerical simulations because they lacked practical devices with dual-axis control inputs. The aim of this study was to design a piezoelectric gyroscope equipped with a dual-axis control input so that researchers may experimentally verify those control algorithms in future. Designing a piezoelectric gyroscope with a dual-axis control input is more difficult than designing a conventional gyroscope because the control input must be effective over a broad frequency range to compensate for imperfections, and the multiple mode shapes in flexural deformations complicate the relation between flexural deformation and the proof mass position. This study solved these problems by using a lead zirconate titanate (PZT) material, introducing additional electrodes for shielding, developing an optimal electrode pattern, and performing calibrations of undesired couplings. The results indicated that the fabricated device could be operated at 5.5±1 kHz to perform dual-axis actuations and position measurements. The calibration of the fabricated device was completed by system identifications of a new dynamic model including gyroscopic motions, electromechanical coupling, mechanical coupling, electrostatic coupling, and capacitive output impedance. Finally, without the assistance of control algorithms, the "open loop sensitivity" of the fabricated gyroscope was 1.82 μV/deg/s with a nonlinearity of 9.5% full-scale output. This sensitivity is comparable with those of other PZT gyroscopes with single-axis control inputs.

  19. Impact of Uncertainty Characterization of Satellite Rainfall Inputs and Model Parameters on Hydrological Data Assimilation with the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Flood Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P.; Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Wang, X.

    2013-12-01

    The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is arguably the assimilation approach that has found the widest application in hydrologic modeling. Its relatively easy implementation and computational efficiency makes it an attractive method for research and operational purposes. However, the scientific literature featuring this approach lacks guidance on how the errors in the forecast need to be characterized so as to get the required corrections from the assimilation process. Moreover, several studies have indicated that the performance of the EnKF is 'sub-optimal' when assimilating certain hydrologic observations. Likewise, some authors have suggested that the underlying assumptions of the Kalman Filter and its dependence on linear dynamics make the EnKF unsuitable for hydrologic modeling. Such assertions are often based on ineffectiveness and poor robustness of EnKF implementations resulting from restrictive specification of error characteristics and the absence of a-priori information of error magnitudes. Therefore, understanding the capabilities and limitations of the EnKF to improve hydrologic forecasts require studying its sensitivity to the manner in which errors in the hydrologic modeling system are represented through ensembles. This study presents a methodology that explores various uncertainty representation configurations to characterize the errors in the hydrologic forecasts in a data assimilation context. The uncertainty in rainfall inputs is represented through a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS), which provides information about second-order statistics of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) error. The uncertainty in model parameters is described adding perturbations based on parameters covariance information. The method allows for the identification of rainfall and parameter perturbation combinations for which the performance of the EnKF is 'optimal' given a set of objective functions. In this process, information about

  20. Responses of two nonlinear microbial models to warming and increased carbon input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y. P.; Jiang, J.; Chen-Charpentier, B.; Agusto, F. B.; Hastings, A.; Hoffman, F.; Rasmussen, M.; Smith, M. J.; Todd-Brown, K.; Wang, Y.; Xu, X.; Luo, Y. Q.

    2016-02-01

    A number of nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition have been developed. Some of them have been applied globally but have yet to be shown to realistically represent soil carbon dynamics in the field. A thorough analysis of their key differences is needed to inform future model developments. Here we compare two nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition: one based on reverse Michaelis-Menten kinetics (model A) and the other on regular Michaelis-Menten kinetics (model B). Using analytic approximations and numerical solutions, we find that the oscillatory responses of carbon pools to a small perturbation in their initial pool sizes dampen faster in model A than in model B. Soil warming always decreases carbon storage in model A, but in model B it predominantly decreases carbon storage in cool regions and increases carbon storage in warm regions. For both models, the CO2 efflux from soil carbon decomposition reaches a maximum value some time after increased carbon input (as in priming experiments). This maximum CO2 efflux (Fmax) decreases with an increase in soil temperature in both models. However, the sensitivity of Fmax to the increased amount of carbon input increases with soil temperature in model A but decreases monotonically with an increase in soil temperature in model B. These differences in the responses to soil warming and carbon input between the two nonlinear models can be used to discern which model is more realistic when compared to results from field or laboratory experiments. These insights will contribute to an improved understanding of the significance of soil microbial processes in soil carbon responses to future climate change.

  1. Application of nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous input models to Geospace: Advances in understanding and space weather forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Boynton, RJ; Balikhin, MA; Billings, SA; Amariutei, OA

    2013-01-01

    The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) system identification technique is applied to various aspects of the magnetospheres dynamics. It is shown, from an example system, how the inputs to a system can be found from the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis, a key concept of the NARMAX approach. The application of the NARMAX approach to the Dst (disturbance storm time) index and the electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) are reviewed, revealing ne...

  2. Generalized multiplicative error models: Asymptotic inference and empirical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qian

    This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part focuses on extended Multiplicative Error Models (MEM) that include two extreme cases for nonnegative series. These extreme cases are common phenomena in high-frequency financial time series. The Location MEM(p,q) model incorporates a location parameter so that the series are required to have positive lower bounds. The estimator for the location parameter turns out to be the minimum of all the observations and is shown to be consistent. The second case captures the nontrivial fraction of zero outcomes feature in a series and combines a so-called Zero-Augmented general F distribution with linear MEM(p,q). Under certain strict stationary and moment conditions, we establish a consistency and asymptotic normality of the semiparametric estimation for these two new models. The second part of this dissertation examines the differences and similarities between trades in the home market and trades in the foreign market of cross-listed stocks. We exploit the multiplicative framework to model trading duration, volume per trade and price volatility for Canadian shares that are cross-listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). We explore the clustering effect, interaction between trading variables, and the time needed for price equilibrium after a perturbation for each market. The clustering effect is studied through the use of univariate MEM(1,1) on each variable, while the interactions among duration, volume and price volatility are captured by a multivariate system of MEM(p,q). After estimating these models by a standard QMLE procedure, we exploit the Impulse Response function to compute the calendar time for a perturbation in these variables to be absorbed into price variance, and use common statistical tests to identify the difference between the two markets in each aspect. These differences are of considerable interest to traders, stock exchanges and policy makers.

  3. Development of the MARS input model for Ulchin 1/2 transient analyzer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, J. J.; Kim, K. D.; Lee, S. W.; Lee, Y. J.; Chung, B. D.; Hwang, M.

    2003-03-01

    KAERI has been developing the NSSS transient analyzer based on best-estimate codes for Ulchin 1/2 plants. The MARS and RETRAN code are used as the best-estimate codes for the NSSS transient analyzer. Among the two codes, the MARS code is to be used for realistic analysis of small- and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents, of which break size is greater than 2 inch diameter. This report includes the input model requirements and the calculation note for the Ulchin 1/2 MARS input data generation (see the Appendix). In order to confirm the validity of the input data, we performed the calculations for a steady state at 100 % power operation condition and a double-ended cold leg break LOCA. The results of the steady-state calculation agree well with the design data. The results of the LOCA calculation seem to be reasonable and consistent with those of other best-estimate calculations. Therefore, the MARS input data can be used as a base input deck for the MARS transient analyzer for Ulchin 1/2

  4. Development of the MARS input model for Ulchin 3/4 transient analyzer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, J. J.; Kim, K. D.; Lee, S. W.; Lee, Y. J.; Lee, W. J.; Chung, B. D.; Hwang, M. G.

    2003-12-01

    KAERI has been developing the NSSS transient analyzer based on best-estimate codes.The MARS and RETRAN code are adopted as the best-estimate codes for the NSSS transient analyzer. Among these two codes, the MARS code is to be used for realistic analysis of small- and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents, of which break size is greater than 2 inch diameter. This report includes the MARS input model requirements and the calculation note for the MARS input data generation (see the Appendix) for Ulchin 3/4 plant analyzer. In order to confirm the validity of the input data, we performed the calculations for a steady state at 100 % power operation condition and a double-ended cold leg break LOCA. The results of the steady-state calculation agree well with the design data. The results of the LOCA calculation seem to be reasonable and consistent with those of other best-estimate calculations. Therefore, the MARS input data can be used as a base input deck for the MARS transient analyzer for Ulchin 3/4

  5. Human upright posture control models based on multisensory inputs; in fast and slow dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiba, Ryosuke; Takakusaki, Kaoru; Ota, Jun; Yozu, Arito; Haga, Nobuhiko

    2016-03-01

    Posture control to maintain an upright stance is one of the most important and basic requirements in the daily life of humans. The sensory inputs involved in posture control include visual and vestibular inputs, as well as proprioceptive and tactile somatosensory inputs. These multisensory inputs are integrated to represent the body state (body schema); this is then utilized in the brain to generate the motion. Changes in the multisensory inputs result in postural alterations (fast dynamics), as well as long-term alterations in multisensory integration and posture control itself (slow dynamics). In this review, we discuss the fast and slow dynamics, with a focus on multisensory integration including an introduction of our study to investigate "internal force control" with multisensory integration-evoked posture alteration. We found that the study of the slow dynamics is lagging compared to that of fast dynamics, such that our understanding of long-term alterations is insufficient to reveal the underlying mechanisms and to propose suitable models. Additional studies investigating slow dynamics are required to expand our knowledge of this area, which would support the physical training and rehabilitation of elderly and impaired persons. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. ANALYSIS OF THE BANDUNG CHANGES EXCELLENT POTENTIAL THROUGH INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL USING INDEX LE MASNE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teti Sofia Yanti

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Input-Output Table is arranged to present an overview of the interrelationships and interdependence between units of activity (sector production in the whole economy. Therefore the input-output models are complete and comprehensive analytical tool. The usefulness of input-output tables is an analysis of the economic structure of the national/regional level which covers the structure of production and value-added (GDP of each sector. For the purposes of planning and evaluation of the outcomes of development that is comprehensive both national and smaller scale (district/city, a model for regional development planning approach can use the model input-output analysis. Analysis of Bandung Economic Structure did use Le Masne index, by comparing the coefficients of the technology in 2003 and 2008, of which nearly 50% change. The trade sector has grown very conspicuous than other areas, followed by the services of road transport and air transport services, the development priorities and investment Bandung should be directed to these areas, this is due to these areas can be thrust and be power attraction for the growth of other areas. The areas that experienced the highest decrease was Industrial Chemicals and Goods from Chemistry, followed by Oil and Refinery Industry Textile Industry Except For Garment.

  7. Simulation model structure numerically robust to changes in magnitude and combination of input and output variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne

    1999-01-01

    Mathematical models of refrigeration systems are often based on a coupling of component models forming a “closed loop” type of system model. In these models the coupling structure of the component models represents the actual flow path of refrigerant in the system. Very often numerical...... variables with narrow definition intervals for the exchange of information between the cycle model and the component models.The advantages of the cycle-oriented method are illustrated by an example showing the refrigeration cycle similarities between two very different refrigeration systems....... instabilities prevent the practical use of such a system model for more than one input/output combination and for other magnitudes of refrigerating capacities.A higher numerical robustness of system models can be achieved by making a model for the refrigeration cycle the core of the system model and by using...

  8. Modelling groundwater discharge areas using only digital elevation models as input data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars

    2006-10-01

    Advanced geohydrological models require data on topography, soil distribution in three dimensions, vegetation, land use, bedrock fracture zones. To model present geohydrological conditions, these factors can be gathered with different techniques. If a future geohydrological condition is modelled in an area with positive shore displacement (say 5,000 or 10,000 years), some of these factors can be difficult to measure. This could include the development of wetlands and the filling of lakes. If the goal of the model is to predict distribution of groundwater recharge and discharge areas in the landscape, the most important factor is topography. The question is how much can topography alone explain the distribution of geohydrological objects in the landscape. A simplified description of the distribution of geohydrological objects in the landscape is that groundwater recharge areas occur at local elevation curvatures and discharge occurs in lakes, brooks, and low situated slopes. Areas in-between these make up discharge areas during wet periods and recharge areas during dry periods. A model that could predict this pattern only using topography data needs to be able to predict high ridges and future lakes and brooks. This study uses GIS software with four different functions using digital elevation models as input data, geomorphometrical parameters to predict landscape ridges, basin fill for predicting lakes, flow accumulations for predicting future waterways, and topographical wetness indexes for dividing in-between areas based on degree of wetness. An area between the village of and Forsmarks' Nuclear Power Plant has been used to calibrate the model. The area is within the SKB 10-metre Elevation Model (DEM) and has a high-resolution orienteering map for wetlands. Wetlands are assumed to be groundwater discharge areas. Five hundred points were randomly distributed across the wetlands. These are potential discharge points. Model parameters were chosen with the

  9. Modelling groundwater discharge areas using only digital elevation models as input data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Biology and Environmental Science

    2006-10-15

    Advanced geohydrological models require data on topography, soil distribution in three dimensions, vegetation, land use, bedrock fracture zones. To model present geohydrological conditions, these factors can be gathered with different techniques. If a future geohydrological condition is modelled in an area with positive shore displacement (say 5,000 or 10,000 years), some of these factors can be difficult to measure. This could include the development of wetlands and the filling of lakes. If the goal of the model is to predict distribution of groundwater recharge and discharge areas in the landscape, the most important factor is topography. The question is how much can topography alone explain the distribution of geohydrological objects in the landscape. A simplified description of the distribution of geohydrological objects in the landscape is that groundwater recharge areas occur at local elevation curvatures and discharge occurs in lakes, brooks, and low situated slopes. Areas in-between these make up discharge areas during wet periods and recharge areas during dry periods. A model that could predict this pattern only using topography data needs to be able to predict high ridges and future lakes and brooks. This study uses GIS software with four different functions using digital elevation models as input data, geomorphometrical parameters to predict landscape ridges, basin fill for predicting lakes, flow accumulations for predicting future waterways, and topographical wetness indexes for dividing in-between areas based on degree of wetness. An area between the village of and Forsmarks' Nuclear Power Plant has been used to calibrate the model. The area is within the SKB 10-metre Elevation Model (DEM) and has a high-resolution orienteering map for wetlands. Wetlands are assumed to be groundwater discharge areas. Five hundred points were randomly distributed across the wetlands. These are potential discharge points. Model parameters were chosen with the

  10. Treatment of input uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: Doing hydrology backward with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; Braak, ter C.J.F.; Clark, M.P.; Hyman, J.M.; Robinson, B.A.

    2008-01-01

    There is increasing consensus in the hydrologic literature that an appropriate framework for streamflow forecasting and simulation should include explicit recognition of forcing and parameter and model structural error. This paper presents a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, entitled

  11. Dynamics of a Stage Structured Pest Control Model in a Polluted Environment with Pulse Pollution Input

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Bing; Xu, Ling; Kang, Baolin

    2013-01-01

    By using pollution model and impulsive delay differential equation, we formulate a pest control model with stage structure for natural enemy in a polluted environment by introducing a constant periodic pollutant input and killing pest at different fixed moments and investigate the dynamics of such a system. We assume only that the natural enemies are affected by pollution, and we choose the method to kill the pest without harming natural enemies. Sufficient conditions for global attractivity ...

  12. Filtering Based Recursive Least Squares Algorithm for Multi-Input Multioutput Hammerstein Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Ziyun; Wang, Yan; Ji, Zhicheng

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers the parameter estimation problem for Hammerstein multi-input multioutput finite impulse response (FIR-MA) systems. Filtered by the noise transfer function, the FIR-MA model is transformed into a controlled autoregressive model. The key-term variable separation principle is used to derive a data filtering based recursive least squares algorithm. The numerical examples confirm that the proposed algorithm can estimate parameters more accurately and has a higher computational...

  13. Input parameters for LEAP and analysis of the Model 22C data base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, L.; Goldstein, M.

    1981-05-01

    The input data for the Long-Term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP) employed by EIA for projections of long-term energy supply and demand in the US were studied and additional documentation provided. Particular emphasis has been placed on the LEAP Model 22C input data base, which was used in obtaining the output projections which appear in the 1978 Annual Report to Congress. Definitions, units, associated model parameters, and translation equations are given in detail. Many parameters were set to null values in Model 22C so as to turn off certain complexities in LEAP; these parameters are listed in Appendix B along with parameters having constant values across all activities. The values of the parameters for each activity are tabulated along with the source upon which each parameter is based - and appropriate comments provided, where available. The structure of the data base is briefly outlined and an attempt made to categorize the parameters according to the methods employed for estimating the numerical values. Due to incomplete documentation and/or lack of specific parameter definitions, few of the input values could be traced and uniquely interpreted using the information provided in the primary and secondary sources. Input parameter choices were noted which led to output projections which are somewhat suspect. Other data problems encountered are summarized. Some of the input data were corrected and a revised base case was constructed. The output projections for this revised case are compared with the Model 22C output for the year 2020, for the Transportation Sector. LEAP could be a very useful tool, especially so in the study of emerging technologies over long-time frames.

  14. CONSTRUCTION OF A DYNAMIC INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL WITH A HUMAN CAPITAL BLOCK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baranov A. O.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The accumulation of human capital is an important factor of economic growth. It seems to be useful to include «human capital» as a factor of a macroeconomic model, as it helps to take into account the quality differentiation of the workforce. Most of the models usually distinguish labor force by the levels of education, while some of the factors remain unaccounted. Among them are health status and culture development level, which influence productivity level as well as gross product reproduction. Inclusion of the human capital block to the interindustry model can help to make it more reliable for economic development forecasting. The article presents a mathematical description of the extended dynamic input-output model (DIOM with a human capital block. The extended DIOM is based on the Input-Output Model from The KAMIN system (the System of Integrated Analyses of Interindustrial Information developed at the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences of the Russian Federation and at the Novosibirsk State University. The extended input-output model can be used to analyze and forecast development of Russian economy.

  15. Error Quantification and Confidence Assessment of Aerothermal Model Predictions for Hypersonic Aircraft (Preprint)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    and M1 using Latin Hypercube sampling . For each of those samples , a Markov Chain Monte Carlo ( MCMC ) algorithm called slice sampling is employed using...104 samples to calculate the posterior distribution. Figures 6 and 7 show the integrated posterior distributions for the uncertain inputs and errors...include errors from sampling , discretization, coupled solution procedures, and other mathematical approximations. In the presence of these various

  16. Selecting Human Error Types for Cognitive Modelling and Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mioch, T.; Osterloh, J.P.; Javaux, D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a method that has enabled us to make a selection of error types and error production mechanisms relevant to the HUMAN European project, and discusses the reasons underlying those choices. We claim that this method has the advantage that it is very exhaustive in determining the

  17. Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.

    , such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo-coastlines. In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland...

  18. Learning from Errors: A Model of Individual Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulis, Maria; Steuer, Gabriele; Dresel, Markus

    2016-01-01

    Errors bear the potential to improve knowledge acquisition, provided that learners are able to deal with them in an adaptive and reflexive manner. However, learners experience a host of different--often impeding or maladaptive--emotional and motivational states in the face of academic errors. Research has made few attempts to develop a theory that…

  19. A comparison of numerical and machine-learning modeling of soil water content with limited input data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karandish, Fatemeh; Šimůnek, Jiří

    2016-12-01

    Soil water content (SWC) is a key factor in optimizing the usage of water resources in agriculture since it provides information to make an accurate estimation of crop water demand. Methods for predicting SWC that have simple data requirements are needed to achieve an optimal irrigation schedule, especially for various water-saving irrigation strategies that are required to resolve both food and water security issues under conditions of water shortages. Thus, a two-year field investigation was carried out to provide a dataset to compare the effectiveness of HYDRUS-2D, a physically-based numerical model, with various machine-learning models, including Multiple Linear Regressions (MLR), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), and Support Vector Machines (SVM), for simulating time series of SWC data under water stress conditions. SWC was monitored using TDRs during the maize growing seasons of 2010 and 2011. Eight combinations of six, simple, independent parameters, including pan evaporation and average air temperature as atmospheric parameters, cumulative growth degree days (cGDD) and crop coefficient (Kc) as crop factors, and water deficit (WD) and irrigation depth (In) as crop stress factors, were adopted for the estimation of SWCs in the machine-learning models. Having Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) in the range of 0.54-2.07 mm, HYDRUS-2D ranked first for the SWC estimation, while the ANFIS and SVM models with input datasets of cGDD, Kc, WD and In ranked next with RMSEs ranging from 1.27 to 1.9 mm and mean bias errors of -0.07 to 0.27 mm, respectively. However, the MLR models did not perform well for SWC forecasting, mainly due to non-linear changes of SWCs under the irrigation process. The results demonstrated that despite requiring only simple input data, the ANFIS and SVM models could be favorably used for SWC predictions under water stress conditions, especially when there is a lack of data. However, process-based numerical models are undoubtedly a

  20. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locatelli, R.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Fortems-Cheney, A.; Szopa, S.; Saunois, M.; Agusti-Panareda, A.; Bergmann, D.; Bian, H.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Gloor, E.; Houweling, S.; Kawa, S. R.; Krol, M.; Patra, P. K.; Prinn, R. G.; Rigby, M.; Saito, R.; Wilson, C.

    2013-10-01

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System) inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure) is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr-1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr-1 in North America to 7 Tg yr-1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively). At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly question the consistency of

  1. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Locatelli

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model outputs from the international TransCom-CH4 model inter-comparison exercise, are combined with a prior scenario of methane emissions and sinks, and integrated into the three-component PYVAR-LMDZ-SACS (PYthon VARiational-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique model with Zooming capability-Simplified Atmospheric Chemistry System inversion system to produce 10 different methane emission estimates at the global scale for the year 2005. The same methane sinks, emissions and initial conditions have been applied to produce the 10 synthetic observation datasets. The same inversion set-up (statistical errors, prior emissions, inverse procedure is then applied to derive flux estimates by inverse modelling. Consequently, only differences in the modelling of atmospheric transport may cause differences in the estimated fluxes. In our framework, we show that transport model errors lead to a discrepancy of 27 Tg yr−1 at the global scale, representing 5% of total methane emissions. At continental and annual scales, transport model errors are proportionally larger than at the global scale, with errors ranging from 36 Tg yr−1 in North America to 7 Tg yr−1 in Boreal Eurasia (from 23 to 48%, respectively. At the model grid-scale, the spread of inverse estimates can reach 150% of the prior flux. Therefore, transport model errors contribute significantly to overall uncertainties in emission estimates by inverse modelling, especially when small spatial scales are examined. Sensitivity tests have been carried out to estimate the impact of the measurement network and the advantage of higher horizontal resolution in transport models. The large differences found between methane flux estimates inferred in these different configurations highly

  2. Application of a Linear Input/Output Model to Tankless Water Heaters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butcher T.; Schoenbauer, B.

    2011-12-31

    In this study, the applicability of a linear input/output model to gas-fired, tankless water heaters has been evaluated. This simple model assumes that the relationship between input and output, averaged over both active draw and idle periods, is linear. This approach is being applied to boilers in other studies and offers the potential to make a small number of simple measurements to obtain the model parameters. These parameters can then be used to predict performance under complex load patterns. Both condensing and non-condensing water heaters have been tested under a very wide range of load conditions. It is shown that this approach can be used to reproduce performance metrics, such as the energy factor, and can be used to evaluate the impacts of alternative draw patterns and conditions.

  3. Efficient uncertainty quantification of a fully nonlinear and dispersive water wave model with random inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bigoni, Daniele; Engsig-Karup, Allan Peter; Eskilsson, Claes

    2016-01-01

    A major challenge in next-generation industrial applications is to improve numerical analysis by quantifying uncertainties in predictions. In this work we present a formulation of a fully nonlinear and dispersive potential flow water wave model with random inputs for the probabilistic description...... of the evolution of waves. The model is analyzed using random sampling techniques and nonintrusive methods based on generalized polynomial chaos (PC). These methods allow us to accurately and efficiently estimate the probability distribution of the solution and require only the computation of the solution...... at different points in the parameter space, allowing for the reuse of existing simulation software. The choice of the applied methods is driven by the number of uncertain input parameters and by the fact that finding the solution of the considered model is computationally intensive. We revisit experimental...

  4. High Resolution Modeling of the Thermospheric Response to Energy Inputs During the RENU-2 Rocket Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walterscheid, R. L.; Brinkman, D. G.; Clemmons, J. H.; Hecht, J. H.; Lessard, M.; Fritz, B.; Hysell, D. L.; Clausen, L. B. N.; Moen, J.; Oksavik, K.; Yeoman, T. K.

    2017-12-01

    The Earth's magnetospheric cusp provides direct access of energetic particles to the thermosphere. These particles produce ionization and kinetic (particle) heating of the atmosphere. The increased ionization coupled with enhanced electric fields in the cusp produces increased Joule heating and ion drag forcing. These energy inputs cause large wind and temperature changes in the cusp region. The Rocket Experiment for Neutral Upwelling -2 (RENU-2) launched from Andoya, Norway at 0745UT on 13 December 2015 into the ionosphere-thermosphere beneath the magnetic cusp. It made measurements of the energy inputs (e.g., precipitating particles, electric fields) and the thermospheric response to these energy inputs (e.g., neutral density and temperature, neutral winds). Complementary ground based measurements were made. In this study, we use a high resolution two-dimensional time-dependent non hydrostatic nonlinear dynamical model driven by rocket and ground based measurements of the energy inputs to simulate the thermospheric response during the RENU-2 flight. Model simulations will be compared to the corresponding measurements of the thermosphere to see what they reveal about thermospheric structure and the nature of magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling in the cusp. Acknowledgements: This material is based upon work supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grants: NNX16AH46G and NNX13AJ93G. This research was also supported by The Aerospace Corporation's Technical Investment program

  5. Input vs. Output Taxation—A DSGE Approach to Modelling Resource Decoupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Antosiewicz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Environmental taxes constitute a crucial instrument aimed at reducing resource use through lower production losses, resource-leaner products, and more resource-efficient production processes. In this paper we focus on material use and apply a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE model to study two types of taxation: tax on material inputs used by industry, energy, construction, and transport sectors, and tax on output of these sectors. We allow for endogenous adoption of resource-saving technologies. We calibrate the model for the EU27 area using an IO matrix. We consider taxation introduced from 2021 and simulate its impact until 2050. We compare the taxes along their ability to induce reduction in material use and raise revenue. We also consider the effect of spending this revenue on reduction of labour taxation. We find that input and output taxation create contrasting incentives and have opposite effects on resource efficiency. The material input tax induces investment in efficiency-improving technology which, in the long term, results in GDP and employment by 15%–20% higher than in the case of a comparable output tax. We also find that using revenues to reduce taxes on labour has stronger beneficial effects for the input tax.

  6. Students’ errors in solving combinatorics problems observed from the characteristics of RME modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meika, I.; Suryadi, D.; Darhim

    2018-01-01

    This article was written based on the learning evaluation results of students’ errors in solving combinatorics problems observed from the characteristics of Realistic Mathematics Education (RME); that is modeling. Descriptive method was employed by involving 55 students from two international-based pilot state senior high schools in Banten. The findings of the study suggested that the students still committed errors in simplifying the problem as much 46%; errors in making mathematical model (horizontal mathematization) as much 60%; errors in finishing mathematical model (vertical mathematization) as much 65%; and errors in interpretation as well as validation as much 66%.

  7. A non-linear dimension reduction methodology for generating data-driven stochastic input models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganapathysubramanian, Baskar; Zabaras, Nicholas

    2008-06-01

    Stochastic analysis of random heterogeneous media (polycrystalline materials, porous media, functionally graded materials) provides information of significance only if realistic input models of the topology and property variations are used. This paper proposes a framework to construct such input stochastic models for the topology and thermal diffusivity variations in heterogeneous media using a data-driven strategy. Given a set of microstructure realizations (input samples) generated from given statistical information about the medium topology, the framework constructs a reduced-order stochastic representation of the thermal diffusivity. This problem of constructing a low-dimensional stochastic representation of property variations is analogous to the problem of manifold learning and parametric fitting of hyper-surfaces encountered in image processing and psychology. Denote by M the set of microstructures that satisfy the given experimental statistics. A non-linear dimension reduction strategy is utilized to map M to a low-dimensional region, A. We first show that M is a compact manifold embedded in a high-dimensional input space Rn. An isometric mapping F from M to a low-dimensional, compact, connected set A⊂Rd(d≪n) is constructed. Given only a finite set of samples of the data, the methodology uses arguments from graph theory and differential geometry to construct the isometric transformation F:M→A. Asymptotic convergence of the representation of M by A is shown. This mapping F serves as an accurate, low-dimensional, data-driven representation of the property variations. The reduced-order model of the material topology and thermal diffusivity variations is subsequently used as an input in the solution of stochastic partial differential equations that describe the evolution of dependant variables. A sparse grid collocation strategy (Smolyak algorithm) is utilized to solve these stochastic equations efficiently. We showcase the methodology by constructing low

  8. A non-linear dimension reduction methodology for generating data-driven stochastic input models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganapathysubramanian, Baskar; Zabaras, Nicholas

    2008-01-01

    Stochastic analysis of random heterogeneous media (polycrystalline materials, porous media, functionally graded materials) provides information of significance only if realistic input models of the topology and property variations are used. This paper proposes a framework to construct such input stochastic models for the topology and thermal diffusivity variations in heterogeneous media using a data-driven strategy. Given a set of microstructure realizations (input samples) generated from given statistical information about the medium topology, the framework constructs a reduced-order stochastic representation of the thermal diffusivity. This problem of constructing a low-dimensional stochastic representation of property variations is analogous to the problem of manifold learning and parametric fitting of hyper-surfaces encountered in image processing and psychology. Denote by M the set of microstructures that satisfy the given experimental statistics. A non-linear dimension reduction strategy is utilized to map M to a low-dimensional region, A. We first show that M is a compact manifold embedded in a high-dimensional input space R n . An isometric mapping F from M to a low-dimensional, compact, connected set A is contained in R d (d<< n) is constructed. Given only a finite set of samples of the data, the methodology uses arguments from graph theory and differential geometry to construct the isometric transformation F:M→A. Asymptotic convergence of the representation of M by A is shown. This mapping F serves as an accurate, low-dimensional, data-driven representation of the property variations. The reduced-order model of the material topology and thermal diffusivity variations is subsequently used as an input in the solution of stochastic partial differential equations that describe the evolution of dependant variables. A sparse grid collocation strategy (Smolyak algorithm) is utilized to solve these stochastic equations efficiently. We showcase the methodology

  9. Integrate-and-fire models with an almost periodic input function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasprzak, Piotr; Nawrocki, Adam; Signerska-Rynkowska, Justyna

    2018-02-01

    We investigate leaky integrate-and-fire models (LIF models for short) driven by Stepanov and μ-almost periodic functions. Special attention is paid to the properties of the firing map and its displacement, which give information about the spiking behavior of the considered system. We provide conditions under which such maps are well-defined and are uniformly continuous. We show that the LIF models with Stepanov almost periodic inputs have uniformly almost periodic displacements. We also show that in the case of μ-almost periodic drives it may happen that the displacement map is uniformly continuous, but is not μ-almost periodic (and thus cannot be Stepanov or uniformly almost periodic). By allowing discontinuous inputs, we extend some previous results, showing, for example, that the firing rate for the LIF models with Stepanov almost periodic input exists and is unique. This is a starting point for the investigation of the dynamics of almost-periodically driven integrate-and-fire systems.

  10. Comparison of robust input shapers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Joshua; Yano, Aika; Singhose, William

    2008-09-01

    The rapid movement of machines is a challenging control problem because it often results in high levels of vibration. As a result, flexible machines are typically moved relatively slowly. Input shaping is a control method that allows much higher speeds of motion by limiting vibration induced by the reference command. To design an input-shaping controller, estimates of the system natural frequency and damping ratio are required. However, real world systems cannot be modeled exactly, making the robustness to modeling errors an important consideration. Many robust input shapers have been developed, but robust shapers typically have longer durations that slow the system response. This creates a compromise between shaper robustness and rise time. This paper analyzes the compromise between rapidity of motion and shaper robustness for several input-shaping methods. Experimental results from a portable bridge crane verify the theoretical predictions.

  11. Application of grey theory in identification model of human error criticality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Pengcheng; Zhang Li; Wang Yiqun

    2009-01-01

    The identification model for human error criticality is constructed on the basis of the principle of the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis. It consists of three decision-making factors, namely the scale of probability of occurrence of human error mode, the scale of probability of error-effect and the scale of error-consequence criticality. It is difficult to consider the weight of every factor, this paper employs the grey theory to identify the human error criticality, which provides a new viewpoint for the identification of the priority of error criticality and origin, which overcome the problem for the actual weight distribution. (authors)

  12. Modeling of alpha-particle-induced soft error rate in DRAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, H.

    1999-01-01

    Alpha-particle-induced soft error in 256M DRAM was numerically investigated. A unified model for alpha-particle-induced charge collection and a soft-error-rate simulator (SERS) was developed. The author investigated the soft error rate of 256M DRAM and identified the bit-bar mode as one of dominant modes for soft error. In addition, for the first time, it was found that trench-oxide depth has a significant influence on soft error rate, and it should be determined by the tradeoff between soft error rate and cell-to-cell isolation characteristics

  13. Estimating model error covariances in nonlinear state-space models using Kalman smoothing and the expectation-maximisation algorithm

    KAUST Repository

    Dreano, Denis

    2017-04-05

    Specification and tuning of errors from dynamical models are important issues in data assimilation. In this work, we propose an iterative expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm to estimate the model error covariances using classical extended and ensemble versions of the Kalman smoother. We show that, for additive model errors, the estimate of the error covariance converges. We also investigate other forms of model error, such as parametric or multiplicative errors. We show that additive Gaussian model error is able to compensate for non additive sources of error in the algorithms we propose. We also demonstrate the limitations of the extended version of the algorithm and recommend the use of the more robust and flexible ensemble version. This article is a proof of concept of the methodology with the Lorenz-63 attractor. We developed an open-source Python library to enable future users to apply the algorithm to their own nonlinear dynamical models.

  14. Input variable selection for data-driven models of Coriolis flowmeters for two-phase flow measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Lijuan; Yan, Yong; Wang, Xue; Wang, Tao

    2017-01-01

    Input variable selection is an essential step in the development of data-driven models for environmental, biological and industrial applications. Through input variable selection to eliminate the irrelevant or redundant variables, a suitable subset of variables is identified as the input of a model. Meanwhile, through input variable selection the complexity of the model structure is simplified and the computational efficiency is improved. This paper describes the procedures of the input variable selection for the data-driven models for the measurement of liquid mass flowrate and gas volume fraction under two-phase flow conditions using Coriolis flowmeters. Three advanced input variable selection methods, including partial mutual information (PMI), genetic algorithm-artificial neural network (GA-ANN) and tree-based iterative input selection (IIS) are applied in this study. Typical data-driven models incorporating support vector machine (SVM) are established individually based on the input candidates resulting from the selection methods. The validity of the selection outcomes is assessed through an output performance comparison of the SVM based data-driven models and sensitivity analysis. The validation and analysis results suggest that the input variables selected from the PMI algorithm provide more effective information for the models to measure liquid mass flowrate while the IIS algorithm provides a fewer but more effective variables for the models to predict gas volume fraction. (paper)

  15. Input variable selection for data-driven models of Coriolis flowmeters for two-phase flow measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lijuan; Yan, Yong; Wang, Xue; Wang, Tao

    2017-03-01

    Input variable selection is an essential step in the development of data-driven models for environmental, biological and industrial applications. Through input variable selection to eliminate the irrelevant or redundant variables, a suitable subset of variables is identified as the input of a model. Meanwhile, through input variable selection the complexity of the model structure is simplified and the computational efficiency is improved. This paper describes the procedures of the input variable selection for the data-driven models for the measurement of liquid mass flowrate and gas volume fraction under two-phase flow conditions using Coriolis flowmeters. Three advanced input variable selection methods, including partial mutual information (PMI), genetic algorithm-artificial neural network (GA-ANN) and tree-based iterative input selection (IIS) are applied in this study. Typical data-driven models incorporating support vector machine (SVM) are established individually based on the input candidates resulting from the selection methods. The validity of the selection outcomes is assessed through an output performance comparison of the SVM based data-driven models and sensitivity analysis. The validation and analysis results suggest that the input variables selected from the PMI algorithm provide more effective information for the models to measure liquid mass flowrate while the IIS algorithm provides a fewer but more effective variables for the models to predict gas volume fraction.

  16. Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.

    2012-01-01

    During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one......, such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo coastlines. In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland...... due to GIA. GIA errors are also important in the far field of previously glaciated areas and in the time evolution of global indicators. In this regard we also account for other possible errors sources which can impact global indicators like the sea level history related to GIA....

  17. Avoiding and identifying errors in health technology assessment models: qualitative study and methodological review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilcott, J; Tappenden, P; Rawdin, A; Johnson, M; Kaltenthaler, E; Paisley, S; Papaioannou, D; Shippam, A

    2010-05-01

    Health policy decisions must be relevant, evidence-based and transparent. Decision-analytic modelling supports this process but its role is reliant on its credibility. Errors in mathematical decision models or simulation exercises are unavoidable but little attention has been paid to processes in model development. Numerous error avoidance/identification strategies could be adopted but it is difficult to evaluate the merits of strategies for improving the credibility of models without first developing an understanding of error types and causes. The study aims to describe the current comprehension of errors in the HTA modelling community and generate a taxonomy of model errors. Four primary objectives are to: (1) describe the current understanding of errors in HTA modelling; (2) understand current processes applied by the technology assessment community for avoiding errors in development, debugging and critically appraising models for errors; (3) use HTA modellers' perceptions of model errors with the wider non-HTA literature to develop a taxonomy of model errors; and (4) explore potential methods and procedures to reduce the occurrence of errors in models. It also describes the model development process as perceived by practitioners working within the HTA community. A methodological review was undertaken using an iterative search methodology. Exploratory searches informed the scope of interviews; later searches focused on issues arising from the interviews. Searches were undertaken in February 2008 and January 2009. In-depth qualitative interviews were performed with 12 HTA modellers from academic and commercial modelling sectors. All qualitative data were analysed using the Framework approach. Descriptive and explanatory accounts were used to interrogate the data within and across themes and subthemes: organisation, roles and communication; the model development process; definition of error; types of model error; strategies for avoiding errors; strategies for

  18. Input vs. Output Taxation—A DSGE Approach to Modelling Resource Decoupling

    OpenAIRE

    Marek Antosiewicz; Piotr Lewandowski; Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks

    2016-01-01

    Environmental taxes constitute a crucial instrument aimed at reducing resource use through lower production losses, resource-leaner products, and more resource-efficient production processes. In this paper we focus on material use and apply a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study two types of taxation: tax on material inputs used by industry, energy, construction, and transport sectors, and tax on output of these sectors. We allow for endogenous adoption of...

  19. Urban Landscape Characterization Using Remote Sensing Data For Input into Air Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

    2005-01-01

    The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models that are used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, particularly for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of air quality models to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well these models predict ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to meteorological and air quality models focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality.

  20. Bayesian modeling of measurement error in predictor variables using item response theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Glas, Cornelis A.W.

    2000-01-01

    This paper focuses on handling measurement error in predictor variables using item response theory (IRT). Measurement error is of great important in assessment of theoretical constructs, such as intelligence or the school climate. Measurement error is modeled by treating the predictors as unobserved

  1. Error sources in atomic force microscopy for dimensional measurements: Taxonomy and modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinello, F.; Voltan, A.; Savio, E.

    2010-01-01

    : scanning system, tip-surface interaction, environment, and data processing. The discussed errors include scaling effects, squareness errors, hysteresis, creep, tip convolution, and thermal drift. A mathematical model of the measurement system is eventually described, as a reference basis for errors...

  2. Responses of two nonlinear microbial models to warming or increased carbon input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y. P.; Jiang, J.; Chen-Charpentier, B.; Agusto, F. B.; Hastings, A.; Hoffman, F.; Rasmussen, M.; Smith, M. J.; Todd-Brown, K.; Wang, Y.; Xu, X.; Luo, Y. Q.

    2015-09-01

    A number of nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition have been developed. Some of them have been applied globally but have yet to be shown to realistically represent soil carbon dynamics in the field. Therefore a thorough analysis of their key differences will be very useful for the future development of these models. Here we compare two nonlinear microbial models of soil carbon decomposition: one is based on reverse Michaelis-Menten kinetics (model A) and the other on regular Michaelis-Menten kinetics (model B). Using a combination of analytic solutions and numerical simulations, we find that the oscillatory responses of carbon pools model A to a small perturbation in the initial pool sizes have a higher frequency and damps faster than model B. In response to soil warming, soil carbon always decreases in model A; but likely decreases in cool regions and increases in warm regions in model B. Maximum CO2 efflux from soil carbon decomposition (Fmax) after an increased carbon addition decreases with an increase in soil temperature in both models, and the sensitivity of Fmax to the amount of carbon input increases with soil temperature in model A; but decreases monotonically with an increase in soil temperature in model B. These differences in the responses to soil warming and carbon input between the two nonlinear models can be used to differentiate which model is more realistic with field or laboratory experiments. This will lead to a better understanding of the significance of soil microbial processes in the responses of soil carbon to future climate change at regional or global scales.

  3. Simulation Model for Correction and Modeling of Probe Head Errors in Five-Axis Coordinate Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Gąska

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Simulative methods are nowadays frequently used in metrology for the simulation of measurement uncertainty and the prediction of errors that may occur during measurements. In coordinate metrology, such methods are primarily used with the typical three-axis Coordinate Measuring Machines (CMMs, and lately, also with mobile measuring systems. However, no similar simulative models have been developed for five-axis systems in spite of their growing popularity in recent years. This paper presents the numerical model of probe head errors for probe heads that are used in five-axis coordinate systems. The model is based on measurements of material standards (standard ring and the use of the Monte Carlo method combined with select interpolation methods. The developed model may be used in conjunction with one of the known models of CMM kinematic errors to form a virtual model of a five-axis coordinate system. In addition, the developed methodology allows for the correction of identified probe head errors, thus improving measurement accuracy. Subsequent verification tests prove the correct functioning of the presented model.

  4. Model-observer similarity, error modeling and social learning in rhesus macaques.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Monfardini

    Full Text Available Monkeys readily learn to discriminate between rewarded and unrewarded items or actions by observing their conspecifics. However, they do not systematically learn from humans. Understanding what makes human-to-monkey transmission of knowledge work or fail could help identify mediators and moderators of social learning that operate regardless of language or culture, and transcend inter-species differences. Do monkeys fail to learn when human models show a behavior too dissimilar from the animals' own, or when they show a faultless performance devoid of error? To address this question, six rhesus macaques trained to find which object within a pair concealed a food reward were successively tested with three models: a familiar conspecific, a 'stimulus-enhancing' human actively drawing the animal's attention to one object of the pair without actually performing the task, and a 'monkey-like' human performing the task in the same way as the monkey model did. Reward was manipulated to ensure that all models showed equal proportions of errors and successes. The 'monkey-like' human model improved the animals' subsequent object discrimination learning as much as a conspecific did, whereas the 'stimulus-enhancing' human model tended on the contrary to retard learning. Modeling errors rather than successes optimized learning from the monkey and 'monkey-like' models, while exacerbating the adverse effect of the 'stimulus-enhancing' model. These findings identify error modeling as a moderator of social learning in monkeys that amplifies the models' influence, whether beneficial or detrimental. By contrast, model-observer similarity in behavior emerged as a mediator of social learning, that is, a prerequisite for a model to work in the first place. The latter finding suggests that, as preverbal infants, macaques need to perceive the model as 'like-me' and that, once this condition is fulfilled, any agent can become an effective model.

  5. Dispersion modeling of accidental releases of toxic gases - Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann-Stanzer, K.; Stenzel, S.

    2009-04-01

    Several air dispersion models are available for prediction and simulation of the hazard areas associated with accidental releases of toxic gases. The most model packages (commercial or free of charge) include a chemical database, an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI) and automated graphical output for effective presentation of results. The models are designed especially for analyzing different accidental toxic release scenarios ("worst-case scenarios"), preparing emergency response plans and optimal countermeasures as well as for real-time risk assessment and management. Uncertainties in the meteorological input together with incorrect estimates of the source play a critical role for the model results. The research project RETOMOD (reference scenarios calculations for toxic gas releases - model systems and their utility for the fire brigade) was conducted by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) in cooperation with the Vienna fire brigade, OMV Refining & Marketing GmbH and Synex Ries & Greßlehner GmbH. RETOMOD was funded by the KIRAS safety research program at the Austrian Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (www.kiras.at). The main tasks of this project were 1. Sensitivity study and optimization of the meteorological input for modeling of the hazard areas (human exposure) during the accidental toxic releases. 2. Comparison of several model packages (based on reference scenarios) in order to estimate the utility for the fire brigades. This presentation gives a short introduction to the project and presents the results of task 1 (meteorological input). The results of task 2 are presented by Stenzel and Baumann-Stanzer in this session. For the aim of this project, the observation-based analysis and forecasting system INCA, developed in the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) was used. INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) data were calculated with 1 km horizontal resolution and

  6. Development of algorithm for depreciation costs allocation in dynamic input-output industrial enterprise model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keller Alevtina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the issue of allocation of depreciation costs in the dynamic inputoutput model of an industrial enterprise. Accounting the depreciation costs in such a model improves the policy of fixed assets management. It is particularly relevant to develop the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs in the construction of dynamic input-output model of an industrial enterprise, since such enterprises have a significant amount of fixed assets. Implementation of terms of the adequacy of such an algorithm itself allows: evaluating the appropriateness of investments in fixed assets, studying the final financial results of an industrial enterprise, depending on management decisions in the depreciation policy. It is necessary to note that the model in question for the enterprise is always degenerate. It is caused by the presence of zero rows in the matrix of capital expenditures by lines of structural elements unable to generate fixed assets (part of the service units, households, corporate consumers. The paper presents the algorithm for the allocation of depreciation costs for the model. This algorithm was developed by the authors and served as the basis for further development of the flowchart for subsequent implementation with use of software. The construction of such algorithm and its use for dynamic input-output models of industrial enterprises is actualized by international acceptance of the effectiveness of the use of input-output models for national and regional economic systems. This is what allows us to consider that the solutions discussed in the article are of interest to economists of various industrial enterprises.

  7. A robust hybrid model integrating enhanced inputs based extreme learning machine with PLSR (PLSR-EIELM) and its application to intelligent measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yan-Lin; Geng, Zhi-Qiang; Xu, Yuan; Zhu, Qun-Xiong

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, a robust hybrid model integrating an enhanced inputs based extreme learning machine with the partial least square regression (PLSR-EIELM) was proposed. The proposed PLSR-EIELM model can overcome two main flaws in the extreme learning machine (ELM), i.e. the intractable problem in determining the optimal number of the hidden layer neurons and the over-fitting phenomenon. First, a traditional extreme learning machine (ELM) is selected. Second, a method of randomly assigning is applied to the weights between the input layer and the hidden layer, and then the nonlinear transformation for independent variables can be obtained from the output of the hidden layer neurons. Especially, the original input variables are regarded as enhanced inputs; then the enhanced inputs and the nonlinear transformed variables are tied together as the whole independent variables. In this way, the PLSR can be carried out to identify the PLS components not only from the nonlinear transformed variables but also from the original input variables, which can remove the correlation among the whole independent variables and the expected outputs. Finally, the optimal relationship model of the whole independent variables with the expected outputs can be achieved by using PLSR. Thus, the PLSR-EIELM model is developed. Then the PLSR-EIELM model served as an intelligent measurement tool for the key variables of the Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) process and the High Density Polyethylene (HDPE) process. The experimental results show that the predictive accuracy of PLSR-EIELM is stable, which indicate that PLSR-EIELM has good robust character. Moreover, compared with ELM, PLSR, hierarchical ELM (HELM), and PLSR-ELM, PLSR-EIELM can achieve much smaller predicted relative errors in these two applications. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A time-resolved model of the mesospheric Na layer: constraints on the meteor input function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. C. Plane

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A time-resolved model of the Na layer in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere region is described, where the continuity equations for the major sodium species Na, Na+ and NaHCO3 are solved explicity, and the other short-lived species are treated in steady-state. It is shown that the diurnal variation of the Na layer can only be modelled satisfactorily if sodium species are permanently removed below about 85 km, both through the dimerization of NaHCO3 and the uptake of sodium species on meteoric smoke particles that are assumed to have formed from the recondensation of vaporized meteoroids. When the sensitivity of the Na layer to the meteoroid input function is considered, an inconsistent picture emerges. The ratio of the column abundance of Na+ to Na is shown to increase strongly with the average meteoroid velocity, because the Na is injected at higher altitudes. Comparison with a limited set of Na+ measurements indicates that the average meteoroid velocity is probably less than about 25 km s-1, in agreement with velocity estimates from conventional meteor radars, and considerably slower than recent observations made by wide aperture incoherent scatter radars. The Na column abundance is shown to be very sensitive to the meteoroid mass input rate, and to the rate of vertical transport by eddy diffusion. Although the magnitude of the eddy diffusion coefficient in the 80–90 km region is uncertain, there is a consensus between recent models using parameterisations of gravity wave momentum deposition that the average value is less than 3×105 cm2 s-1. This requires that the global meteoric mass input rate is less than about 20 td-1, which is closest to estimates from incoherent scatter radar observations. Finally, the diurnal variation in the meteoroid input rate only slight perturbs the Na layer, because the residence time of Na in the layer is several days, and diurnal effects are effectively averaged out.

  9. Modelo de error en imágenes comprimidas con wavelets Error Model in Wavelet-compressed Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Puetamán G.

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available En este artículo se presenta la compresión de imágenes a través de la comparación entre el modelo Wavelet y el modelo Fourier, utilizando la minimización de la función de error. El problema que se estudia es específico, consiste en determinar una base {ei} que minimice la función de error entre la imagen original y la recuperada después de la compresión. Es de resaltar que existen muchas aplicaciones, por ejemplo, en medicina o astronomía, en donde no es aceptable ningún deterioro de la imagen porque toda la información contenida, incluso la que se estima como ruido, se considera imprescindible.In this paper we study image compression as a way to compare Wavelet and Fourier models, by minimizing the error function. The particular problem we consider is to determine basis {ei} minimizing the error function between the original image and the recovered one after compression. It is to be noted or remarked that there are many applications in such diverse fields as for example medicine and astronomy, where no image deteriorating is acceptable since even noise is considered essential.

  10. Filtering Based Recursive Least Squares Algorithm for Multi-Input Multioutput Hammerstein Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziyun Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the parameter estimation problem for Hammerstein multi-input multioutput finite impulse response (FIR-MA systems. Filtered by the noise transfer function, the FIR-MA model is transformed into a controlled autoregressive model. The key-term variable separation principle is used to derive a data filtering based recursive least squares algorithm. The numerical examples confirm that the proposed algorithm can estimate parameters more accurately and has a higher computational efficiency compared with the recursive least squares algorithm.

  11. Unitary input DEA model to identify beef cattle production systems typologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Gonçalves Gomes

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The cow-calf beef production sector in Brazil has a wide variety of operating systems. This suggests the identification and the characterization of homogeneous regions of production, with consequent implementation of actions to achieve its sustainability. In this paper we attempted to measure the performance of 21 livestock modal production systems, in their cow-calf phase. We measured the performance of these systems, considering husbandry and production variables. The proposed approach is based on data envelopment analysis (DEA. We used unitary input DEA model, with apparent input orientation, together with the efficiency measurements generated by the inverted DEA frontier. We identified five modal production systems typologies, using the isoefficiency layers approach. The results showed that the knowledge and the processes management are the most important factors for improving the efficiency of beef cattle production systems.

  12. Discrete element modelling (DEM) input parameters: understanding their impact on model predictions using statistical analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Z.; Wilkinson, S. K.; Stitt, E. H.; Marigo, M.

    2015-09-01

    Selection or calibration of particle property input parameters is one of the key problematic aspects for the implementation of the discrete element method (DEM). In the current study, a parametric multi-level sensitivity method is employed to understand the impact of the DEM input particle properties on the bulk responses for a given simple system: discharge of particles from a flat bottom cylindrical container onto a plate. In this case study, particle properties, such as Young's modulus, friction parameters and coefficient of restitution were systematically changed in order to assess their effect on material repose angles and particle flow rate (FR). It was shown that inter-particle static friction plays a primary role in determining both final angle of repose and FR, followed by the role of inter-particle rolling friction coefficient. The particle restitution coefficient and Young's modulus were found to have insignificant impacts and were strongly cross correlated. The proposed approach provides a systematic method that can be used to show the importance of specific DEM input parameters for a given system and then potentially facilitates their selection or calibration. It is concluded that shortening the process for input parameters selection and calibration can help in the implementation of DEM.

  13. A practical guideline for human error assessment: A causal model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayele, Y. Z.; Barabadi, A.

    2017-12-01

    To meet the availability target and reduce system downtime, effective maintenance have a great importance. However, maintenance performance is greatly affected in complex ways by human factors. Hence, to have an effective maintenance operation, these factors needs to be assessed and quantified. To avoid the inadequacies of traditional human error assessment (HEA) approaches, the application of Bayesian Networks (BN) is gaining popularity. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a HEA framework based on the BN for maintenance operation. The proposed framework aids for assessing the effects of human performance influencing factors on the likelihood of human error during maintenance activities. Further, the paper investigates how operational issues must be considered in system failure-rate analysis, maintenance planning, and prediction of human error in pre- and post-maintenance operations. The goal is to assess how performance monitoring and evaluation of human factors can effect better operation and maintenance.

  14. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Cohen, Erika; Ancona, Zachary H.; McNulty, Steven; Sun, Ge

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address these questions at national, provincial, and subwatershed scales in Rwanda. We compared results for carbon, water, and sediment as modeled using InVEST and WaSSI using (1) land cover data at 30 and 300 m resolution and (2) three different input land cover datasets. WaSSI and simpler InVEST models (carbon storage and annual water yield) were relatively insensitive to the choice of spatial resolution, but more complex InVEST models (seasonal water yield and sediment regulation) produced large differences when applied at differing resolution. Six out of nine ES metrics (InVEST annual and seasonal water yield and WaSSI) gave similar predictions for at least two different input land cover datasets. Despite differences in mean values when using different data sources and resolution, we found significant and highly correlated results when using Spearman's rank correlation, indicating consistent spatial patterns of high and low values. Our results confirm and extend conclusions of past studies, showing that in certain cases (e.g., simpler models and national-scale analyses), results can be robust to data and modeling choices. For more complex models, those with different output metrics, and subnational to site-based analyses in heterogeneous environments, data and model choices may strongly influence study findings.

  15. VSC Input-Admittance Modeling and Analysis Above the Nyquist Frequency for Passivity-Based Stability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harnefors, Lennart; Finger, Raphael; Wang, Xiongfei

    2017-01-01

    The interconnection stability of a gridconnected voltage-source converter (VSC) can be assessed via the dissipative properties of its input admittance. In this paper, the modeling of the current control loop is revisited with the aim to improve the accuracy of the input-admittance model above the...

  16. Assessment of errors and uncertainty patterns in GIA modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Spada, G.

    During the last decade many efforts have been devoted to the assessment of global sea level rise and to the determination of the mass balance of continental ice sheets. In this context, the important role of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) has been clearly recognized. Yet, in many cases only one......, such as time-evolving shorelines and paleo-coastlines. In this study we quantify these uncertainties and their propagation in GIA response using a Monte Carlo approach to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of GIA errors. A direct application is the error estimates in ice mass balance in Antarctica and Greenland...

  17. Systematic errors in temperature estimates from MODIS data covering the western Palearctic and their impact on a parasite development model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Alonso-Carné

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The modelling of habitat suitability for parasites is a growing area of research due to its association with climate change and ensuing shifts in the distribution of infectious diseases. Such models depend on remote sensing data and require accurate, high-resolution temperature measurements. The temperature is critical for accurate estimation of development rates and potential habitat ranges for a given parasite. The MODIS sensors aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution temperature data for remote sensing applications. This paper describes comparative analysis of MODISderived temperatures relative to ground records of surface temperature in the western Palaearctic. The results show that MODIS overestimated maximum temperature values and underestimated minimum temperatures by up to 5-6 ºC. The combined use of both Aqua and Terra datasets provided the most accurate temperature estimates around latitude 35-44º N, with an overestimation during spring-summer months and an underestimation in autumn-winter. Errors in temperature estimation were associated with specific ecological regions within the target area as well as technical limitations in the temporal and orbital coverage of the satellites (e.g. sensor limitations and satellite transit times. We estimated error propagation of temperature uncertainties in parasite habitat suitability models by comparing outcomes of published models. Error estimates reached 36% of annual respective measurements depending on the model used. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of adequate image processing and points out the limitations of MODIS temperature data as inputs into predictive models concerning parasite lifecycles.

  18. Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huan, Xun; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Geraci, Gianluca; Eldred, Michael S.; Vane, Zachary P.; Lacaze, Guilhem; Oefelein, Joseph C.; Najm, Habib N.

    2018-03-01

    The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the systems stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. These methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.

  19. Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huan, Xun [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Sargsyan, Khachik [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Geraci, Gianluca [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eldred, Michael S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vane, Zachary P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Lacaze, Guilhem [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Oefelein, Joseph C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Najm, Habib N. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2018-02-09

    The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing uncertainty quantification for scramjet simulations is challenging due to the large number of uncertain parameters involved and the high computational cost of flow simulations. These difficulties are addressed in this paper by developing practical uncertainty quantification algorithms and computational methods, and deploying them in the current study to large-eddy simulations of a jet in crossflow inside a simplified HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig scramjet combustor. First, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify influential uncertain input parameters, which can help reduce the system’s stochastic dimension. Second, because models of different fidelity are used in the overall uncertainty quantification assessment, a framework for quantifying and propagating the uncertainty due to model error is presented. Finally, these methods are demonstrated on a nonreacting jet-in-crossflow test problem in a simplified scramjet geometry, with parameter space up to 24 dimensions, using static and dynamic treatments of the turbulence subgrid model, and with two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometries.

  20. The MARINA model (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs): Model description and results for China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strokal, Maryna; Kroeze, Carolien; Wang, Mengru; Bai, Zhaohai; Ma, Lin

    2016-08-15

    Chinese agriculture has been developing fast towards industrial food production systems that discharge nutrient-rich wastewater into rivers. As a result, nutrient export by rivers has been increasing, resulting in coastal water pollution. We developed a Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs (MARINA) for China. The MARINA Nutrient Model quantifies river export of nutrients by source at the sub-basin scale as a function of human activities on land. MARINA is a downscaled version for China of the Global NEWS-2 (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model with an improved approach for nutrient losses from animal production and population. We use the model to quantify dissolved inorganic and organic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export by six large rivers draining into the Bohai Gulf (Yellow, Hai, Liao), Yellow Sea (Yangtze, Huai) and South China Sea (Pearl) in 1970, 2000 and 2050. We addressed uncertainties in the MARINA Nutrient model. Between 1970 and 2000 river export of dissolved N and P increased by a factor of 2-8 depending on sea and nutrient form. Thus, the risk for coastal eutrophication increased. Direct losses of manure to rivers contribute to 60-78% of nutrient inputs to the Bohai Gulf and 20-74% of nutrient inputs to the other seas in 2000. Sewage is an important source of dissolved inorganic P, and synthetic fertilizers of dissolved inorganic N. Over half of the nutrients exported by the Yangtze and Pearl rivers originated from human activities in downstream and middlestream sub-basins. The Yellow River exported up to 70% of dissolved inorganic N and P from downstream sub-basins and of dissolved organic N and P from middlestream sub-basins. Rivers draining into the Bohai Gulf are drier, and thus transport fewer nutrients. For the future we calculate further increases in river export of nutrients. The MARINA Nutrient model quantifies the main sources of coastal water pollution for sub-basins. This information can contribute to formulation of

  1. Thermal Error Test and Intelligent Modeling Research on the Spindle of High Speed CNC Machine Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Zhonghui; Peng, Bin; Xiao, Qijun; Bai, Lu

    2018-03-01

    Thermal error is the main factor affecting the accuracy of precision machining. Through experiments, this paper studies the thermal error test and intelligent modeling for the spindle of vertical high speed CNC machine tools in respect of current research focuses on thermal error of machine tool. Several testing devices for thermal error are designed, of which 7 temperature sensors are used to measure the temperature of machine tool spindle system and 2 displacement sensors are used to detect the thermal error displacement. A thermal error compensation model, which has a good ability in inversion prediction, is established by applying the principal component analysis technology, optimizing the temperature measuring points, extracting the characteristic values closely associated with the thermal error displacement, and using the artificial neural network technology.

  2. Spindle Thermal Error Optimization Modeling of a Five-axis Machine Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qianjian; Fan, Shuo; Xu, Rufeng; Cheng, Xiang; Zhao, Guoyong; Yang, Jianguo

    2017-05-01

    Aiming at the problem of low machining accuracy and uncontrollable thermal errors of NC machine tools, spindle thermal error measurement, modeling and compensation of a two turntable five-axis machine tool are researched. Measurement experiment of heat sources and thermal errors are carried out, and GRA(grey relational analysis) method is introduced into the selection of temperature variables used for thermal error modeling. In order to analyze the influence of different heat sources on spindle thermal errors, an ANN (artificial neural network) model is presented, and ABC(artificial bee colony) algorithm is introduced to train the link weights of ANN, a new ABC-NN(Artificial bee colony-based neural network) modeling method is proposed and used in the prediction of spindle thermal errors. In order to test the prediction performance of ABC-NN model, an experiment system is developed, the prediction results of LSR (least squares regression), ANN and ABC-NN are compared with the measurement results of spindle thermal errors. Experiment results show that the prediction accuracy of ABC-NN model is higher than LSR and ANN, and the residual error is smaller than 3 μm, the new modeling method is feasible. The proposed research provides instruction to compensate thermal errors and improve machining accuracy of NC machine tools.

  3. Error assessment of digital elevation models obtained by interpolation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean François Mas

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Son pocos los estudios enfocados en la evaluación de los errores inherentes a los modelos digitales de elevación (MDE. Por esta razón se evaluaron los errores de los MDE obtenidos por diferentes metodos de interpolación (ARC/INFO, IDRISI, ILWIS y NEW-MIEL y con diferentes resoluciones, con la finalidad de obtener una representación del relieve más precisa. Esta evaluación de los métodos de interpolación es crucial, si se tiene en cuenta que los MDE son la forma más efectiva de representación de la superficie terrestre para el análisis del terreno y que son ampliamente utilizados en ciencias ambientales. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que la resolución, el método de interpolación y los insumos (curvas de nivel solas o con datos de escurrimientos y puntos acotados influyen de manera importante en la magnitud de la cantidad de los errores generados en el MDE. En este estudio, que se llevó a cabo con base en curvas de nivel cada 50 m en una zona montañosa, la resolución más idónea fue de 30 m. El MDE con el menor error (Error Medio Cuadrático −EMC− de 7.3 m fue obtenido con ARC/INFO. Sin embargo, programas sin costo como NEWMIEL o ILWIS permitieron la obtención de resultados con un EMC de 10 m.

  4. PERMODELAN INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN INDONESIA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL INTERVENSI MULTI INPUT

    KAUST Repository

    Novianti, Putri Wikie

    2017-01-24

    There are some events which are expected effecting CPI’s fluctuation, i.e. financial crisis 1997/1998, fuel price risings, base year changing’s, independence of Timor-Timur (October 1999), and Tsunami disaster in Aceh (December 2004). During re-search period, there were eight fuel price risings and four base year changing’s. The objective of this research is to obtain multi input intervention model which can des-cribe magnitude and duration of each event effected to CPI. Most of intervention re-searches that have been done are only contain of an intervention with single input, ei-ther step or pulse function. Multi input intervention was used in Indonesia CPI case because there are some events which are expected effecting CPI. Based on the result, those events were affecting CPI. Additionally, other events, such as Ied on January 1999, events on April 2002, July 2003, December 2005, and September 2008, were affecting CPI too. In general, those events gave positive effect to CPI, except events on April 2002 and July 2003 which gave negative effects.

  5. Input-Output Modeling for Urban Energy Consumption in Beijing: Dynamics and Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lixiao; Hu, Qiuhong; Zhang, Fan

    2014-01-01

    Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect) energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the entire city of Beijing and its 30 economic sectors, respectively. Results show that the embodied energy consumption of Beijing increased from 38.85 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 206.2 Mtce over the past twenty years of rapid urbanization; the share of indirect energy consumption in total energy consumption increased from 48% to 76%, suggesting the transition of Beijing from a production-based and manufacturing-dominated economy to a consumption-based and service-dominated economy. Real estate development has shown to be a major driving factor of the growth in indirect energy consumption. The boom and bust of construction activities have been strongly correlated with the increase and decrease of system-side indirect energy consumption. Traditional heavy industries remain the most energy-intensive sectors in the economy. However, the transportation and service sectors have contributed most to the rapid increase in overall energy consumption. The analyses in this paper demonstrate that a system-wide approach such as that based on input-output model can be a useful tool for robust energy policy making. PMID:24595199

  6. Input data for mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of switched reluctance machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Asghar Memon

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The modeling and simulation of Switched Reluctance (SR machine and drives is challenging for its dual pole salient structure and magnetic saturation. This paper presents the input data in form of experimentally obtained magnetization characteristics. This data was used for computer simulation based model of SR machine, “Selecting Best Interpolation Technique for Simulation Modeling of Switched Reluctance Machine” [1], “Modeling of Static Characteristics of Switched Reluctance Motor” [2]. This data is primary source of other data tables of co energy and static torque which are also among the required data essential for the simulation and can be derived from this data. The procedure and experimental setup for collection of the data is presented in detail.

  7. Input data for mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of switched reluctance machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Memon, Ali Asghar; Shaikh, Muhammad Mujtaba

    2017-10-01

    The modeling and simulation of Switched Reluctance (SR) machine and drives is challenging for its dual pole salient structure and magnetic saturation. This paper presents the input data in form of experimentally obtained magnetization characteristics. This data was used for computer simulation based model of SR machine, "Selecting Best Interpolation Technique for Simulation Modeling of Switched Reluctance Machine" [1], "Modeling of Static Characteristics of Switched Reluctance Motor" [2]. This data is primary source of other data tables of co energy and static torque which are also among the required data essential for the simulation and can be derived from this data. The procedure and experimental setup for collection of the data is presented in detail.

  8. Towards New Empirical Versions of Financial and Accounting Models Corrected for Measurement Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Francois-Éric Racicot; Raymond Théoret; Alain Coen

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new empirical version of the Fama and French Model based on the Hausman (1978) specification test and aimed at discarding measurement errors in the variables. The proposed empirical framework is general enough to be used for correcting other financial and accounting models of measurement errors. Removing measurement errors is important at many levels as information disclosure, corporate governance and protection of investors.

  9. A Model of the Dynamic Error as a Measurement Result of Instruments Defining the Parameters of Moving Objects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dichev D.

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The present paper considers a new model for the formation of the dynamic error inertial component. It is very effective in the analysis and synthesis of measuring instruments positioned on moving objects and measuring their movement parameters. The block diagram developed within this paper is used as a basis for defining the mathematical model. The block diagram is based on the set-theoretic description of the measuring system, its input and output quantities and the process of dynamic error formation. The model reflects the specific nature of the formation of the dynamic error inertial component. In addition, the model submits to the logical interrelation and sequence of the physical processes that form it. The effectiveness, usefulness and advantages of the model proposed are rooted in the wide range of possibilities it provides in relation to the analysis and synthesis of those measuring instruments, the formulation of algorithms and optimization criteria, as well as the development of new intelligent measuring systems with improved accuracy characteristics in dynamic mode.

  10. Role-modeling and medical error disclosure: a national survey of trainees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, William; Hickson, Gerald B; Miller, Bonnie M; Doukas, David J; Buckley, John D; Song, John; Sehgal, Niraj L; Deitz, Jennifer; Braddock, Clarence H; Lehmann, Lisa Soleymani

    2014-03-01

    To measure trainees' exposure to negative and positive role-modeling for responding to medical errors and to examine the association between that exposure and trainees' attitudes and behaviors regarding error disclosure. Between May 2011 and June 2012, 435 residents at two large academic medical centers and 1,187 medical students from seven U.S. medical schools received anonymous, electronic questionnaires. The questionnaire asked respondents about (1) experiences with errors, (2) training for responding to errors, (3) behaviors related to error disclosure, (4) exposure to role-modeling for responding to errors, and (5) attitudes regarding disclosure. Using multivariate regression, the authors analyzed whether frequency of exposure to negative and positive role-modeling independently predicted two primary outcomes: (1) attitudes regarding disclosure and (2) nontransparent behavior in response to a harmful error. The response rate was 55% (884/1,622). Training on how to respond to errors had the largest independent, positive effect on attitudes (standardized effect estimate, 0.32, P error (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.15-1.64; P errors. Negative role models may be a significant impediment to disclosure among trainees.

  11. Modelling Effects on Grid Cells of Sensory Input During Self-motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-20

    Olton et al. 1979, 1986; Morris et al. 1982), and hence their accurate updating on the basis of sensory features appears to be essential to memory -guided...J Physiol 000.0 (2016) pp 1–14 1 Th e Jo u rn al o f Ph ys io lo g y N eu ro sc ie nc e SYMPOS IUM REV IEW Modelling effects on grid cells of sensory ...input during self-motion Florian Raudies, James R. Hinman and Michael E. Hasselmo Center for Systems Neuroscience, Centre for Memory and Brain

  12. Input-constrained model predictive control via the alternating direction method of multipliers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Frison, Gianluca; Andersen, Martin S.

    2014-01-01

    is quadratic in the dimensions of the controlled system, and linear in the length of the prediction horizon. Simulations show that the approach proposed in this paper is more than an order of magnitude faster than several state-of-the-art quadratic programming algorithms, and that the difference in computation......This paper presents an algorithm, based on the alternating direction method of multipliers, for the convex optimal control problem arising in input-constrained model predictive control. We develop an efficient implementation of the algorithm for the extended linear quadratic control problem (LQCP...

  13. Modeling Dynamics of Wikipedia: An Empirical Analysis Using a Vector Error Correction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Feng-Jun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we constructed a system dynamic model of Wikipedia based on the co-evolution theory, and investigated the interrelationships among topic popularity, group size, collaborative conflict, coordination mechanism, and information quality by using the vector error correction model (VECM. This study provides a useful framework for analyzing the dynamics of Wikipedia and presents a formal exposition of the VECM methodology in the information system research.

  14. Using Whole-House Field Tests to Empirically Derive Moisture Buffering Model Inputs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woods, J.; Winkler, J.; Christensen, D.; Hancock, E.

    2014-08-01

    Building energy simulations can be used to predict a building's interior conditions, along with the energy use associated with keeping these conditions comfortable. These models simulate the loads on the building (e.g., internal gains, envelope heat transfer), determine the operation of the space conditioning equipment, and then calculate the building's temperature and humidity throughout the year. The indoor temperature and humidity are affected not only by the loads and the space conditioning equipment, but also by the capacitance of the building materials, which buffer changes in temperature and humidity. This research developed an empirical method to extract whole-house model inputs for use with a more accurate moisture capacitance model (the effective moisture penetration depth model). The experimental approach was to subject the materials in the house to a square-wave relative humidity profile, measure all of the moisture transfer terms (e.g., infiltration, air conditioner condensate) and calculate the only unmeasured term: the moisture absorption into the materials. After validating the method with laboratory measurements, we performed the tests in a field house. A least-squares fit of an analytical solution to the measured moisture absorption curves was used to determine the three independent model parameters representing the moisture buffering potential of this house and its furnishings. Follow on tests with realistic latent and sensible loads showed good agreement with the derived parameters, especially compared to the commonly-used effective capacitance approach. These results show that the EMPD model, once the inputs are known, is an accurate moisture buffering model.

  15. Development of an RTK-GPS positioning application with an improved position error model for smartphones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jinsang; Yun, Hongsik; Suh, Yongcheol; Cho, Jeongho; Lee, Dongha

    2012-09-25

    This study developed a smartphone application that provides wireless communication, NRTIP client, and RTK processing features, and which can simplify the Network RTK-GPS system while reducing the required cost. A determination method for an error model in Network RTK measurements was proposed, considering both random and autocorrelation errors, to accurately calculate the coordinates measured by the application using state estimation filters. The performance evaluation of the developed application showed that it could perform high-precision real-time positioning, within several centimeters of error range at a frequency of 20 Hz. A Kalman Filter was applied to the coordinates measured from the application, to evaluate the appropriateness of the determination method for an error model, as proposed in this study. The results were more accurate, compared with those of the existing error model, which only considered the random error.

  16. Error assessment of digital elevation models obtained by interpolation

    OpenAIRE

    Jean François Mas; Azucena Pérez Vega

    2009-01-01

    Son pocos los estudios enfocados en la evaluación de los errores inherentes a los modelos digitales de elevación (MDE). Por esta razón se evaluaron los errores de los MDE obtenidos por diferentes metodos de interpolación (ARC/INFO, IDRISI, ILWIS y NEW-MIEL) y con diferentes resoluciones, con la finalidad de obtener una representación del relieve más precisa. Esta evaluación de los métodos de interpolación es crucial, si se tiene en cuenta que los MDE son la forma más efectiva de representació...

  17. Bayesian analysis of data and model error in rainfall-runoff hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavetski, D.; Franks, S. W.; Kuczera, G.

    2004-12-01

    A major unresolved issue in the identification and use of conceptual hydrologic models is realistic description of uncertainty in the data and model structure. In particular, hydrologic parameters often cannot be measured directly and must be inferred (calibrated) from observed forcing/response data (typically, rainfall and runoff). However, rainfall varies significantly in space and time, yet is often estimated from sparse gauge networks. Recent work showed that current calibration methods (e.g., standard least squares, multi-objective calibration, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) ignore forcing uncertainty and assume that the rainfall is known exactly. Consequently, they can yield strongly biased and misleading parameter estimates. This deficiency confounds attempts to reliably test model hypotheses, to generalize results across catchments (the regionalization problem) and to quantify predictive uncertainty when the hydrologic model is extrapolated. This paper continues the development of a Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology for the calibration and identification of hydrologic models, which explicitly incorporates the uncertainty in both the forcing and response data, and allows systematic model comparison based on residual model errors and formal Bayesian hypothesis testing (e.g., using Bayes factors). BATEA is based on explicit stochastic models for both forcing and response uncertainty, whereas current techniques focus solely on response errors. Hence, unlike existing methods, the BATEA parameter equations directly reflect the modeler's confidence in all the data. We compare several approaches to approximating the parameter distributions: a) full Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and b) simplified approaches based on linear approximations. Studies using synthetic and real data from the US and Australia show that BATEA systematically reduces the parameter bias, leads to more meaningful model fits and allows model comparison taking

  18. Analysis of Error Propagation Within Hierarchical Air Combat Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    of the factors (variables), the other variables were fixed at their baseline levels. The red dots with the standard deviation error bars represent...conducted an analysis to determine if the means and variances of MOEs of interest were statistically different by experimental design (Pav, 2015). To do...summarized data. In the summarized data set, we summarize each Design Point (DP) by its mean and standard deviation , over the stochastic replications. The

  19. On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, D.; Ringwood, John; Condon, M.

    2004-01-01

    Weather information is an important factor in load forecasting models. This weather information usually takes the form of actual weather readings. However, online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. A technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect current accuracy. A load forecasting model is then proposed which combines the forecasts of several load forecasting models. This approach allows the...

  20. Analysis of errors in spectral reconstruction with a Laplace transform pair model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Archer, B.R.; Bushong, S.C.

    1985-01-01

    The sensitivity of a Laplace transform pair model for spectral reconstruction to random errors in attenuation measurements of diagnostic x-ray units has been investigated. No spectral deformation or significant alteration resulted from the simulated attenuation errors. It is concluded that the range of spectral uncertainties to be expected from the application of this model is acceptable for most scientific applications. (author)

  1. Potential Hydraulic Modelling Errors Associated with Rheological Data Extrapolation in Laminar Flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shadday, Martin A. Jr.

    1997-01-01

    The potential errors associated with the modelling of flows of non-Newtonian slurries through pipes, due to inadequate rheological models and extrapolation outside of the ranges of data bases, are demonstrated. The behaviors of both dilatant and pseudoplastic fluids with yield stresses, and the errors associated with treating them as Bingham plastics, are investigated

  2. Visual Predictive Check in Models with Time-Varying Input Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Largajolli, Anna; Bertoldo, Alessandra; Campioni, Marco; Cobelli, Claudio

    2015-11-01

    The nonlinear mixed effects models are commonly used modeling techniques in the pharmaceutical research as they enable the characterization of the individual profiles together with the population to which the individuals belong. To ensure a correct use of them is fundamental to provide powerful diagnostic tools that are able to evaluate the predictive performance of the models. The visual predictive check (VPC) is a commonly used tool that helps the user to check by visual inspection if the model is able to reproduce the variability and the main trend of the observed data. However, the simulation from the model is not always trivial, for example, when using models with time-varying input function (IF). In this class of models, there is a potential mismatch between each set of simulated parameters and the associated individual IF which can cause an incorrect profile simulation. We introduce a refinement of the VPC by taking in consideration a correlation term (the Mahalanobis or normalized Euclidean distance) that helps the association of the correct IF with the individual set of simulated parameters. We investigate and compare its performance with the standard VPC in models of the glucose and insulin system applied on real and simulated data and in a simulated pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) example. The newly proposed VPC performance appears to be better with respect to the standard VPC especially for the models with big variability in the IF where the probability of simulating incorrect profiles is higher.

  3. Dual-input two-compartment pharmacokinetic model of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging in hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jian-Feng; Zhao, Zhen-Hua; Zhang, Yu; Zhao, Li; Yang, Li-Ming; Zhang, Min-Ming; Wang, Bo-Yin; Wang, Ting; Lu, Bao-Chun

    2016-04-07

    To investigate the feasibility of a dual-input two-compartment tracer kinetic model for evaluating tumorous microvascular properties in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). From January 2014 to April 2015, we prospectively measured and analyzed pharmacokinetic parameters [transfer constant (Ktrans), plasma flow (Fp), permeability surface area product (PS), efflux rate constant (kep), extravascular extracellular space volume ratio (ve), blood plasma volume ratio (vp), and hepatic perfusion index (HPI)] using dual-input two-compartment tracer kinetic models [a dual-input extended Tofts model and a dual-input 2-compartment exchange model (2CXM)] in 28 consecutive HCC patients. A well-known consensus that HCC is a hypervascular tumor supplied by the hepatic artery and the portal vein was used as a reference standard. A paired Student's t-test and a nonparametric paired Wilcoxon rank sum test were used to compare the equivalent pharmacokinetic parameters derived from the two models, and Pearson correlation analysis was also applied to observe the correlations among all equivalent parameters. The tumor size and pharmacokinetic parameters were tested by Pearson correlation analysis, while correlations among stage, tumor size and all pharmacokinetic parameters were assessed by Spearman correlation analysis. The Fp value was greater than the PS value (FP = 1.07 mL/mL per minute, PS = 0.19 mL/mL per minute) in the dual-input 2CXM; HPI was 0.66 and 0.63 in the dual-input extended Tofts model and the dual-input 2CXM, respectively. There were no significant differences in the kep, vp, or HPI between the dual-input extended Tofts model and the dual-input 2CXM (P = 0.524, 0.569, and 0.622, respectively). All equivalent pharmacokinetic parameters, except for ve, were correlated in the two dual-input two-compartment pharmacokinetic models; both Fp and PS in the dual-input 2CXM were correlated with Ktrans derived from the dual-input extended Tofts model (P = 0.002, r = 0.566; P

  4. Error budget analysis of SCIAMACHY limb ozone profile retrievals using the SCIATRAN model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Rahpoe

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive error characterization of SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric CHartographY limb ozone profiles has been established based upon SCIATRAN transfer model simulations. The study was carried out in order to evaluate the possible impact of parameter uncertainties, e.g. in albedo, stratospheric aerosol optical extinction, temperature, pressure, pointing, and ozone absorption cross section on the limb ozone retrieval. Together with the a posteriori covariance matrix available from the retrieval, total random and systematic errors are defined for SCIAMACHY ozone profiles. Main error sources are the pointing errors, errors in the knowledge of stratospheric aerosol parameters, and cloud interference. Systematic errors are of the order of 7%, while the random error amounts to 10–15% for most of the stratosphere. These numbers can be used for the interpretation of instrument intercomparison and validation of the SCIAMACHY V 2.5 limb ozone profiles in a rigorous manner.

  5. MODELS OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ERRORS PREVENTION IN TERMINAL CONTROL AREAS UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of this study is to research applied models of air traffic controllers’ errors prevention in terminal control areas (TMA under uncertainty conditions. In this work the theoretical framework descripting safety events and errors of air traffic controllers connected with the operations in TMA is proposed. Methods: optimisation of terminal control area formal description based on the Threat and Error management model and the TMA network model of air traffic flows. Results: the human factors variables associated with safety events in work of air traffic controllers under uncertainty conditions were obtained. The Threat and Error management model application principles to air traffic controller operations and the TMA network model of air traffic flows were proposed. Discussion: Information processing context for preventing air traffic controller errors, examples of threats in work of air traffic controllers, which are relevant for TMA operations under uncertainty conditions.

  6. Orthogonality of the Mean and Error Distribution in Generalized Linear Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Alan; Rathouz, Paul J

    2017-01-01

    We show that the mean-model parameter is always orthogonal to the error distribution in generalized linear models. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean-model parameter will be asymptotically efficient regardless of whether the error distribution is known completely, known up to a finite vector of parameters, or left completely unspecified, in which case the likelihood is taken to be an appropriate semiparametric likelihood. Moreover, the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean-model parameter will be asymptotically independent of the maximum likelihood estimator of the error distribution. This generalizes some well-known results for the special cases of normal, gamma and multinomial regression models, and, perhaps more interestingly, suggests that asymptotically efficient estimation and inferences can always be obtained if the error distribution is nonparametrically estimated along with the mean. In contrast, estimation and inferences using misspecified error distributions or variance functions are generally not efficient.

  7. On low-frequency errors of uniformly modulated filtered white-noise models for ground motions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safak, Erdal; Boore, David M.

    1988-01-01

    Low-frequency errors of a commonly used non-stationary stochastic model (uniformly modulated filtered white-noise model) for earthquake ground motions are investigated. It is shown both analytically and by numerical simulation that uniformly modulated filter white-noise-type models systematically overestimate the spectral response for periods longer than the effective duration of the earthquake, because of the built-in low-frequency errors in the model. The errors, which are significant for low-magnitude short-duration earthquakes, can be eliminated by using the filtered shot-noise-type models (i. e. white noise, modulated by the envelope first, and then filtered).

  8. Integration of Error Compensation of Coordinate Measuring Machines into Feature Measurement: Part I—Model Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roque Calvo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The development of an error compensation model for coordinate measuring machines (CMMs and its integration into feature measurement is presented. CMMs are widespread and dependable instruments in industry and laboratories for dimensional measurement. From the tip probe sensor to the machine display, there is a complex transformation of probed point coordinates through the geometrical feature model that makes the assessment of accuracy and uncertainty measurement results difficult. Therefore, error compensation is not standardized, conversely to other simpler instruments. Detailed coordinate error compensation models are generally based on CMM as a rigid-body and it requires a detailed mapping of the CMM’s behavior. In this paper a new model type of error compensation is proposed. It evaluates the error from the vectorial composition of length error by axis and its integration into the geometrical measurement model. The non-explained variability by the model is incorporated into the uncertainty budget. Model parameters are analyzed and linked to the geometrical errors and uncertainty of CMM response. Next, the outstanding measurement models of flatness, angle, and roundness are developed. The proposed models are useful for measurement improvement with easy integration into CMM signal processing, in particular in industrial environments where built-in solutions are sought. A battery of implementation tests are presented in Part II, where the experimental endorsement of the model is included.

  9. Integration of Error Compensation of Coordinate Measuring Machines into Feature Measurement: Part I—Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo, Roque; D’Amato, Roberto; Gómez, Emilio; Domingo, Rosario

    2016-01-01

    The development of an error compensation model for coordinate measuring machines (CMMs) and its integration into feature measurement is presented. CMMs are widespread and dependable instruments in industry and laboratories for dimensional measurement. From the tip probe sensor to the machine display, there is a complex transformation of probed point coordinates through the geometrical feature model that makes the assessment of accuracy and uncertainty measurement results difficult. Therefore, error compensation is not standardized, conversely to other simpler instruments. Detailed coordinate error compensation models are generally based on CMM as a rigid-body and it requires a detailed mapping of the CMM’s behavior. In this paper a new model type of error compensation is proposed. It evaluates the error from the vectorial composition of length error by axis and its integration into the geometrical measurement model. The non-explained variability by the model is incorporated into the uncertainty budget. Model parameters are analyzed and linked to the geometrical errors and uncertainty of CMM response. Next, the outstanding measurement models of flatness, angle, and roundness are developed. The proposed models are useful for measurement improvement with easy integration into CMM signal processing, in particular in industrial environments where built-in solutions are sought. A battery of implementation tests are presented in Part II, where the experimental endorsement of the model is included. PMID:27690052

  10. Asymptomatic Independence and Separability in Convariance Structure Models: Implications for Specification Error, Power, and Model Modification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, D; Wenger, R N

    1993-10-01

    This article presents a didactic discussion on the role of asymptotically independent test statistics and separable hypotheses as they pertain to issues of specification error, power, and model modification in the covariance structure modeling framework. Specifically, it is shown that when restricting two parameter estimates on the basis of the multivariate Wald test, the condition of asymptotic independence is necessary but not sufficient for the univariate Wald test statistics to sum to the multivariate Wald test. Instead, what is required is mutual asymptotic independence (MAI) among the univariate tests. This result generalizes to sets of multivariate tests as well. When MA1 is lacking, hypotheses can exhibit transitive relationships. It is also shown that the pattern of zero and non-zero elements of the covariance matrix of the estimates are indicative of mutually asymptotically independent test statistics, separable and transitive hypotheses. The concepts of MAI, separability, and transitivity serve as an explanatory framework for how specification errors are propagated through systems of equations and how power analyses are differentially affected by specification errors of the same magnitude. A small population study supports the major findings of this article. The question of univariate versus multivariate sequential model modification is also addressed. We argue that multivariate sequential model modification strategies do not take into account the typical lack of MA1 thus inadvertently misleading substantive investigators. Instead, a prudent approach favors univariate sequential model modification.

  11. Addressing Conceptual Model Uncertainty in the Evaluation of Model Prediction Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrera, J.; Pool, M.

    2014-12-01

    Model predictions are uncertain because of errors in model parameters, future forcing terms, and model concepts. The latter remain the largest and most difficult to assess source of uncertainty in long term model predictions. We first review existing methods to evaluate conceptual model uncertainty. We argue that they are highly sensitive to the ingenuity of the modeler, in the sense that they rely on the modeler's ability to propose alternative model concepts. Worse, we find that the standard practice of stochastic methods leads to poor, potentially biased and often too optimistic, estimation of actual model errors. This is bad news because stochastic methods are purported to properly represent uncertainty. We contend that the problem does not lie on the stochastic approach itself, but on the way it is applied. Specifically, stochastic inversion methodologies, which demand quantitative information, tend to ignore geological understanding, which is conceptually rich. We illustrate some of these problems with the application to Mar del Plata aquifer, where extensive data are available for nearly a century. Geologically based models, where spatial variability is handled through zonation, yield calibration fits similar to geostatiscally based models, but much better predictions. In fact, the appearance of the stochastic T fields is similar to the geologically based models only in areas with high density of data. We take this finding to illustrate the ability of stochastic models to accommodate many data, but also, ironically, their inability to address conceptual model uncertainty. In fact, stochastic model realizations tend to be too close to the "most likely" one (i.e., they do not really realize the full conceptualuncertainty). The second part of the presentation is devoted to argue that acknowledging model uncertainty may lead to qualitatively different decisions than just working with "most likely" model predictions. Therefore, efforts should concentrate on

  12. A switchable light-input, light-output system modelled and constructed in yeast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kozma-Bognar Laszlo

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Advances in synthetic biology will require spatio-temporal regulation of biological processes in heterologous host cells. We develop a light-switchable, two-hybrid interaction in yeast, based upon the Arabidopsis proteins PHYTOCHROME A and FAR-RED ELONGATED HYPOCOTYL 1-LIKE. Light input to this regulatory module allows dynamic control of a light-emitting LUCIFERASE reporter gene, which we detect by real-time imaging of yeast colonies on solid media. Results The reversible activation of the phytochrome by red light, and its inactivation by far-red light, is retained. We use this quantitative readout to construct a mathematical model that matches the system's behaviour and predicts the molecular targets for future manipulation. Conclusion Our model, methods and materials together constitute a novel system for a eukaryotic host with the potential to convert a dynamic pattern of light input into a predictable gene expression response. This system could be applied for the regulation of genetic networks - both known and synthetic.

  13. A Water-Withdrawal Input-Output Model of the Indian Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogra, Shelly; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Mathur, Ritu

    2016-02-02

    Managing freshwater allocation for a highly populated and growing economy like India can benefit from knowledge about the effect of economic activities. This study transforms the 2003-2004 economic input-output (IO) table of India into a water withdrawal input-output model to quantify direct and indirect flows. This unique model is based on a comprehensive database compiled from diverse public sources, and estimates direct and indirect water withdrawal of all economic sectors. It distinguishes between green (rainfall), blue (surface and ground), and scarce groundwater. Results indicate that the total direct water withdrawal is nearly 3052 billion cubic meter (BCM) and 96% of this is used in agriculture sectors with the contribution of direct green water being about 1145 BCM, excluding forestry. Apart from 727 BCM direct blue water withdrawal for agricultural, other significant users include "Electricity" with 64 BCM, "Water supply" with 44 BCM and other industrial sectors with nearly 14 BCM. "Construction", "miscellaneous food products"; "Hotels and restaurants"; "Paper, paper products, and newsprint" are other significant indirect withdrawers. The net virtual water import is found to be insignificant compared to direct water used in agriculture nationally, while scarce ground water associated with crops is largely contributed by northern states.

  14. Improved characterisation and modelling of measurement errors in electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tso, Chak-Hau Michael; Kuras, Oliver; Wilkinson, Paul B.; Uhlemann, Sebastian; Chambers, Jonathan E.; Meldrum, Philip I.; Graham, James; Sherlock, Emma F.; Binley, Andrew

    2017-11-01

    Measurement errors can play a pivotal role in geophysical inversion. Most inverse models require users to prescribe or assume a statistical model of data errors before inversion. Wrongly prescribed errors can lead to over- or under-fitting of data; however, the derivation of models of data errors is often neglected. With the heightening interest in uncertainty estimation within hydrogeophysics, better characterisation and treatment of measurement errors is needed to provide improved image appraisal. Here we focus on the role of measurement errors in electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). We have analysed two time-lapse ERT datasets: one contains 96 sets of direct and reciprocal data collected from a surface ERT line within a 24 h timeframe; the other is a two-year-long cross-borehole survey at a UK nuclear site with 246 sets of over 50,000 measurements. Our study includes the characterisation of the spatial and temporal behaviour of measurement errors using autocorrelation and correlation coefficient analysis. We find that, in addition to well-known proportionality effects, ERT measurements can also be sensitive to the combination of electrodes used, i.e. errors may not be uncorrelated as often assumed. Based on these findings, we develop a new error model that allows grouping based on electrode number in addition to fitting a linear model to transfer resistance. The new model explains the observed measurement errors better and shows superior inversion results and uncertainty estimates in synthetic examples. It is robust, because it groups errors together based on the electrodes used to make the measurements. The new model can be readily applied to the diagonal data weighting matrix widely used in common inversion methods, as well as to the data covariance matrix in a Bayesian inversion framework. We demonstrate its application using extensive ERT monitoring datasets from the two aforementioned sites.

  15. Accounting for model error in Bayesian solutions to hydrogeophysical inverse problems using a local basis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irving, J.; Koepke, C.; Elsheikh, A. H.

    2017-12-01

    Bayesian solutions to geophysical and hydrological inverse problems are dependent upon a forward process model linking subsurface parameters to measured data, which is typically assumed to be known perfectly in the inversion procedure. However, in order to make the stochastic solution of the inverse problem computationally tractable using, for example, Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods, fast approximations of the forward model are commonly employed. This introduces model error into the problem, which has the potential to significantly bias posterior statistics and hamper data integration efforts if not properly accounted for. Here, we present a new methodology for addressing the issue of model error in Bayesian solutions to hydrogeophysical inverse problems that is geared towards the common case where these errors cannot be effectively characterized globally through some parametric statistical distribution or locally based on interpolation between a small number of computed realizations. Rather than focusing on the construction of a global or local error model, we instead work towards identification of the model-error component of the residual through a projection-based approach. In this regard, pairs of approximate and detailed model runs are stored in a dictionary that grows at a specified rate during the MCMC inversion procedure. At each iteration, a local model-error basis is constructed for the current test set of model parameters using the K-nearest neighbour entries in the dictionary, which is then used to separate the model error from the other error sources before computing the likelihood of the proposed set of model parameters. We demonstrate the performance of our technique on the inversion of synthetic crosshole ground-penetrating radar traveltime data for three different subsurface parameterizations of varying complexity. The synthetic data are generated using the eikonal equation, whereas a straight-ray forward model is assumed in the inversion

  16. OOK power model based dynamic error testing for smart electricity meter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xuewei; Chen, Jingxia; Yuan, Ruiming; Jia, Xiaolu; Zhu, Meng; Jiang, Zhenyu

    2017-02-01

    This paper formulates the dynamic error testing problem for a smart meter, with consideration and investigation of both the testing signal and the dynamic error testing method. To solve the dynamic error testing problems, the paper establishes an on-off-keying (OOK) testing dynamic current model and an OOK testing dynamic load energy (TDLE) model. Then two types of TDLE sequences and three modes of OOK testing dynamic power are proposed. In addition, a novel algorithm, which helps to solve the problem of dynamic electric energy measurement’s traceability, is derived for dynamic errors. Based on the above researches, OOK TDLE sequence generation equipment is developed and a dynamic error testing system is constructed. Using the testing system, five kinds of meters were tested in the three dynamic power modes. The test results show that the dynamic error is closely related to dynamic power mode and the measurement uncertainty is 0.38%.

  17. INPUT DATA OF BURNING WOOD FOR CFD MODELLING USING SMALL-SCALE EXPERIMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Hejtmánek

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an option how to acquire simplified input data for modelling of burning wood in CFD programmes. The option lies in combination of data from small- and molecular-scale experiments in order to describe the material as a one-reaction material property. Such virtual material would spread fire, develop the fire according to surrounding environment and it could be extinguished without using complex reaction molecular description. Series of experiments including elemental analysis, thermogravimetric analysis and difference thermal analysis, and combustion analysis were performed. Then the FDS model of burning pine wood in a cone calorimeter was built. In the model where those values were used. The model was validated to HRR (Heat Release Rate from the real cone calorimeter experiment. The results show that for the purpose of CFD modelling the effective heat of combustion, which is one of the basic material property for fire modelling affecting the total intensity of burning, should be used. Using the net heat of combustion in the model leads to higher values of HRR in comparison to the real experiment data. Considering all the results shown in this paper, it was shown that it is possible to simulate burning of wood using the extrapolated data obtained in small-size experiments.

  18. On Input Vector Representation for the SVR model of Reactor Core Loading Pattern Critical Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trontl, K.; Pevec, D.; Smuc, T.

    2008-01-01

    Determination and optimization of reactor core loading pattern is an important factor in nuclear power plant operation. The goal is to minimize the amount of enriched uranium (fresh fuel) and burnable absorbers placed in the core, while maintaining nuclear power plant operational and safety characteristics. The usual approach to loading pattern optimization involves high degree of engineering judgment, a set of heuristic rules, an optimization algorithm and a computer code used for evaluating proposed loading patterns. The speed of the optimization process is highly dependent on the computer code used for the evaluation. Recently, we proposed a new method for fast loading pattern evaluation based on general robust regression model relying on the state of the art research in the field of machine learning. We employed Support Vector Regression (SVR) technique. SVR is a supervised learning method in which model parameters are automatically determined by solving a quadratic optimization problem. The preliminary tests revealed a good potential of the SVR method application for fast and accurate reactor core loading pattern evaluation. However, some aspects of model development are still unresolved. The main objective of the work reported in this paper was to conduct additional tests and analyses required for full clarification of the SVR applicability for loading pattern evaluation. We focused our attention on the parameters defining input vector, primarily its structure and complexity, and parameters defining kernel functions. All the tests were conducted on the NPP Krsko reactor core, using MCRAC code for the calculation of reactor core loading pattern critical parameters. The tested input vector structures did not influence the accuracy of the models suggesting that the initially tested input vector, consisted of the number of IFBAs and the k-inf at the beginning of the cycle, is adequate. The influence of kernel function specific parameters (σ for RBF kernel

  19. A Sensor Dynamic Measurement Error Prediction Model Based on NAPSO-SVM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Minlan; Jiang, Lan; Jiang, Dingde; Li, Fei; Song, Houbing

    2018-01-15

    Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective way to improve sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, and support vector machine (SVM) is often used for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Traditionally, the SVM parameters were always set manually, which cannot ensure the model's performance. In this paper, a SVM method based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Natural selection and simulated annealing are added in the PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optima. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM's parameters: the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models' performances. The experimental results show that among the three tested algorithms the NAPSO-SVM method has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors, and it is an effective method for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors.

  20. Estimation and impact assessment of input and parameter uncertainty in predicting groundwater flow with a fully distributed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touhidul Mustafa, Syed Md.; Nossent, Jiri; Ghysels, Gert; Huysmans, Marijke

    2017-04-01

    Transient numerical groundwater flow models have been used to understand and forecast groundwater flow systems under anthropogenic and climatic effects, but the reliability of the predictions is strongly influenced by different sources of uncertainty. Hence, researchers in hydrological sciences are developing and applying methods for uncertainty quantification. Nevertheless, spatially distributed flow models pose significant challenges for parameter and spatially distributed input estimation and uncertainty quantification. In this study, we present a general and flexible approach for input and parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of groundwater models. The proposed approach combines a fully distributed groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. To avoid over-parameterization, the uncertainty of the spatially distributed model input has been represented by multipliers. The posterior distributions of these multipliers and the regular model parameters were estimated using DREAM. The proposed methodology has been applied in an overexploited aquifer in Bangladesh where groundwater pumping and recharge data are highly uncertain. The results confirm that input uncertainty does have a considerable effect on the model predictions and parameter distributions. Additionally, our approach also provides a new way to optimize the spatially distributed recharge and pumping data along with the parameter values under uncertain input conditions. It can be concluded from our approach that considering model input uncertainty along with parameter uncertainty is important for obtaining realistic model predictions and a correct estimation of the uncertainty bounds.

  1. Targeting the right input data to improve crop modeling at global level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, M.; Robertson, R.; Gbegbelegbe, S.; Jones, J. W.; Boote, K. J.; Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    Designed for location-specific simulations, the use of crop models at a global level raises important questions. Crop models are originally premised on small unit areas where environmental conditions and management practices are considered homogeneous. Specific information describing soils, climate, management, and crop characteristics are used in the calibration process. However, when scaling up for global application, we rely on information derived from geographical information systems and weather generators. To run crop models at broad, we use a modeling platform that assumes a uniformly generated grid cell as a unit area. Specific weather, specific soil and specific management practices for each crop are represented for each of the cell grids. Studies on the impacts of the uncertainties of weather information and climate change on crop yield at a global level have been carried out (Osborne et al, 2007, Nelson et al., 2010, van Bussel et al, 2011). Detailed information on soils and management practices at global level are very scarce but recognized to be of critical importance (Reidsma et al., 2009). Few attempts to assess the impact of their uncertainties on cropping systems performances can be found. The objectives of this study are (i) to determine sensitivities of a crop model to soil and management practices, inputs most relevant to low input rainfed cropping systems, and (ii) to define hotspots of sensitivity according to the input data. We ran DSSAT v4.5 globally (CERES-CROPSIM) to simulate wheat yields at 45arc-minute resolution. Cultivar parameters were calibrated and validated for different mega-environments (results not shown). The model was run for nitrogen-limited production systems. This setting was chosen as the most representative to simulate actual yield (especially for low-input rainfed agricultural systems) and assumes crop growth to be free of any pest and diseases damages. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on contrasting management

  2. New insights into mammalian signaling pathways using microfluidic pulsatile inputs and mathematical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumit, M.; Takayama, S.; Linderman, J. J.

    2016-01-01

    Temporally modulated input mimics physiology. This chemical communication strategy filters the biochemical noise through entrainment and phase-locking. Under laboratory conditions, it also expands the observability space for downstream responses. A combined approach involving microfluidic pulsatile stimulation and mathematical modeling has led to deciphering of hidden/unknown temporal motifs in several mammalian signaling pathways and has provided mechanistic insights, including how these motifs combine to form distinct band-pass filters and govern fate regulation under dynamic microenvironment. This approach can be utilized to understand signaling circuit architectures and to gain mechanistic insights for several other signaling systems. Potential applications include synthetic biology and biotechnology, in developing pharmaceutical interventions, and in developing lab-on-chip models. PMID:27868126

  3. New insights into mammalian signaling pathways using microfluidic pulsatile inputs and mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumit, M; Takayama, S; Linderman, J J

    2017-01-23

    Temporally modulated input mimics physiology. This chemical communication strategy filters the biochemical noise through entrainment and phase-locking. Under laboratory conditions, it also expands the observability space for downstream responses. A combined approach involving microfluidic pulsatile stimulation and mathematical modeling has led to deciphering of hidden/unknown temporal motifs in several mammalian signaling pathways and has provided mechanistic insights, including how these motifs combine to form distinct band-pass filters and govern fate regulation under dynamic microenvironment. This approach can be utilized to understand signaling circuit architectures and to gain mechanistic insights for several other signaling systems. Potential applications include synthetic biology and biotechnology, in developing pharmaceutical interventions, and in developing lab-on-chip models.

  4. Loss of GABAergic inputs in APP/PS1 mouse model of Alzheimer's disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tutu Oyelami

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Alzheimer's disease (AD is characterized by symptoms which include seizures, sleep disruption, loss of memory as well as anxiety in patients. Of particular importance is the possibility of preventing the progressive loss of neuronal projections in the disease. Transgenic mice overexpressing EOFAD mutant PS1 (L166P and mutant APP (APP KM670/671NL Swedish (APP/PS1 develop a very early and robust Amyloid pathology and display synaptic plasticity impairments and cognitive dysfunction. Here we investigated GABAergic neurotransmission, using multi-electrode array (MEA technology and pharmacological manipulation to quantify the effect of GABA Blockers on field excitatory postsynaptic potentials (fEPSP, and immunostaining of GABAergic neurons. Using MEA technology we confirm impaired LTP induction by high frequency stimulation in APPPS1 hippocampal CA1 region that was associated with reduced alteration of the pair pulse ratio after LTP induction. Synaptic dysfunction was also observed under manipulation of external Calcium concentration and input-output curve. Electrophysiological recordings from brain slice of CA1 hippocampus area, in the presence of GABAergic receptors blockers cocktails further demonstrated significant reduction in the GABAergic inputs in APP/PS1 mice. Moreover, immunostaining of GAD65 a specific marker for GABAergic neurons revealed reduction of the GABAergic inputs in CA1 area of the hippocampus. These results might be linked to increased seizure sensitivity, premature death and cognitive dysfunction in this animal model of AD. Further in depth analysis of GABAergic dysfunction in APP/PS1 mice is required and may open new perspectives for AD therapy by restoring GABAergic function.

  5. Robust estimation of errors-in-variables models using M-estimators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Cuiping; Peng, Junhuan

    2017-07-01

    The traditional Errors-in-variables (EIV) models are widely adopted in applied sciences. The EIV model estimators, however, can be highly biased by gross error. This paper focuses on robust estimation in EIV models. A new class of robust estimators, called robust weighted total least squared estimators (RWTLS), is introduced. Robust estimators of the parameters of the EIV models are derived from M-estimators and Lagrange multiplier method. A simulated example is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the presented RWTLS. The result shows that the RWTLS algorithm can indeed resist gross error to achieve a reliable solution.

  6. Continuous-Discrete Time Prediction-Error Identification Relevant for Linear Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    A Prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...... model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model...

  7. Maneuver Performance Assessment of the Cassini Spacecraft Through Execution-Error Modeling and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Sean

    2014-01-01

    The Cassini spacecraft has executed nearly 300 maneuvers since 1997, providing ample data for execution-error model updates. With maneuvers through 2017, opportunities remain to improve on the models and remove biases identified in maneuver executions. This manuscript focuses on how execution-error models can be used to judge maneuver performance, while providing a means for detecting performance degradation. Additionally, this paper describes Cassini's execution-error model updates in August 2012. An assessment of Cassini's maneuver performance through OTM-368 on January 5, 2014 is also presented.

  8. Effects of error covariance structure on estimation of model averaging weights and predictive performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Meyer, Philip D.; Curtis, Gary P.; Shi, Xiaoqing; Niu, Xu-Feng; Yabusaki, Steve B.

    2013-01-01

    When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, CE, of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, Cek, of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown Cek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred Cek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using Cekresolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using Cek

  9. Error modeling and sensitivity analysis of a parallel robot with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuzhen; Xie, Fugui; Liu, Xinjun; Zhou, Yanhua

    2014-07-01

    Parallel robots with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions are utilized widely in the field of high speed pick-and-place manipulation. Error modeling for these robots generally simplifies the parallelogram structures included by the robots as a link. As the established error model fails to reflect the error feature of the parallelogram structures, the effect of accuracy design and kinematic calibration based on the error model come to be undermined. An error modeling methodology is proposed to establish an error model of parallel robots with parallelogram structures. The error model can embody the geometric errors of all joints, including the joints of parallelogram structures. Thus it can contain more exhaustively the factors that reduce the accuracy of the robot. Based on the error model and some sensitivity indices defined in the sense of statistics, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Accordingly, some atlases are depicted to express each geometric error's influence on the moving platform's pose errors. From these atlases, the geometric errors that have greater impact on the accuracy of the moving platform are identified, and some sensitive areas where the pose errors of the moving platform are extremely sensitive to the geometric errors are also figured out. By taking into account the error factors which are generally neglected in all existing modeling methods, the proposed modeling method can thoroughly disclose the process of error transmission and enhance the efficacy of accuracy design and calibration.

  10. Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

    2018-03-01

    A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

  11. An Approach for Generating Precipitation Input for Worst-Case Flood Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf

    2015-04-01

    There is a lack of suitable methods for creating precipitation scenarios that can be used to realistically estimate peak discharges with very low probabilities. On the one hand, existing methods are methodically questionable when it comes to physical system boundaries. On the other hand, the spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation patterns as system input is limited. In response, this study proposes a method of deriving representative spatio-temporal precipitation patterns and presents a step towards making methodically correct estimations of infrequent floods by using a worst-case approach. A Monte-Carlo rainfall-runoff model allows for the testing of a wide range of different spatio-temporal distributions of an extreme precipitation event and therefore for the generation of a hydrograph for each of these distributions. Out of these numerous hydrographs and their corresponding peak discharges, the worst-case catchment reactions on the system input can be derived. The spatio-temporal distributions leading to the highest peak discharges are identified and can eventually be used for further investigations.

  12. Ensemble Data Assimilation to Characterize Surface-Layer Errors In Numerical Weather Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Joshua; Angevine, Wayne

    2013-04-01

    Experiments with the single-column implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model provide a basis for deducing land-atmosphere coupling errors in the model. Coupling occurs both through heat and moisture fluxes through the land-atmosphere interface and roughness sub-layer, and turbulent heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes through the atmospheric surface layer. This work primarily addresses the turbulent fluxes, which are parameterized following Monin-Obukhov similarity theory applied to the atmospheric surface layer. By combining ensemble data assimilation and parameter estimation, the model error can be characterized. Ensemble data assimilation of 2-m temperature and water vapor mixing ratio, and 10-m wind components, forces the model to follow observations during a month-long simulation for a column over the well-instrumented ARM Central Facility near Lamont, OK. One-hour errors in predicted observations are systematically small but non-zero, and the systematic errors measure bias as a function of local time of day. Analysis increments for state elements nearby (15-m AGL) can be too small or have the wrong sign, indicating systematically biased covariances and model error. Experiments using the ensemble filter to objectively estimate a parameter controlling the thermal land-atmosphere coupling show that the parameter adapts to offset the model errors, but that the errors cannot be eliminated. Results suggest either structural error or further parametric error that may be difficult to estimate. Experiments omitting atypical observations such as soil and flux measurements lead to qualitatively similar deductions, showing potential for assimilating common in-situ observations as an inexpensive framework for deducing and isolating model errors. We finish by presenting recent results from a deeper examination of the second-moment ensemble statistics, which demonstrate the effect of assimilation on the coupling through the stability function in

  13. Experimental Errors in QSAR Modeling Sets: What We Can Do and What We Cannot Do.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Linlin; Wang, Wenyi; Sedykh, Alexander; Zhu, Hao

    2017-06-30

    Numerous chemical data sets have become available for quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling studies. However, the quality of different data sources may be different based on the nature of experimental protocols. Therefore, potential experimental errors in the modeling sets may lead to the development of poor QSAR models and further affect the predictions of new compounds. In this study, we explored the relationship between the ratio of questionable data in the modeling sets, which was obtained by simulating experimental errors, and the QSAR modeling performance. To this end, we used eight data sets (four continuous endpoints and four categorical endpoints) that have been extensively curated both in-house and by our collaborators to create over 1800 various QSAR models. Each data set was duplicated to create several new modeling sets with different ratios of simulated experimental errors (i.e., randomizing the activities of part of the compounds) in the modeling process. A fivefold cross-validation process was used to evaluate the modeling performance, which deteriorates when the ratio of experimental errors increases. All of the resulting models were also used to predict external sets of new compounds, which were excluded at the beginning of the modeling process. The modeling results showed that the compounds with relatively large prediction errors in cross-validation processes are likely to be those with simulated experimental errors. However, after removing a certain number of compounds with large prediction errors in the cross-validation process, the external predictions of new compounds did not show improvement. Our conclusion is that the QSAR predictions, especially consensus predictions, can identify compounds with potential experimental errors. But removing those compounds by the cross-validation procedure is not a reasonable means to improve model predictivity due to overfitting.

  14. Solar Load Inputs for USARIEM Thermal Strain Models and the Solar Radiation-Sensitive Components of the WBGT Index

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Matthew, William

    2001-01-01

    This report describes processes we have implemented to use global pyranometer-based estimates of mean radiant temperature as the common solar load input for the Scenario model, the USARIEM heat strain...

  15. Local and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests in classical measurement error models

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2010-09-14

    We consider functional measurement error models, i.e. models where covariates are measured with error and yet no distributional assumptions are made about the mismeasured variable. We propose and study a score-type local test and an orthogonal series-based, omnibus goodness-of-fit test in this context, where no likelihood function is available or calculated-i.e. all the tests are proposed in the semiparametric model framework. We demonstrate that our tests have optimality properties and computational advantages that are similar to those of the classical score tests in the parametric model framework. The test procedures are applicable to several semiparametric extensions of measurement error models, including when the measurement error distribution is estimated non-parametrically as well as for generalized partially linear models. The performance of the local score-type and omnibus goodness-of-fit tests is demonstrated through simulation studies and analysis of a nutrition data set.

  16. Boolean modeling of neural systems with point-process inputs and outputs. Part I: theory and simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmarelis, Vasilis Z; Zanos, Theodoros P; Berger, Theodore W

    2009-08-01

    This paper presents a new modeling approach for neural systems with point-process (spike) inputs and outputs that utilizes Boolean operators (i.e. modulo 2 multiplication and addition that correspond to the logical AND and OR operations respectively, as well as the AND_NOT logical operation representing inhibitory effects). The form of the employed mathematical models is akin to a "Boolean-Volterra" model that contains the product terms of all relevant input lags in a hierarchical order, where terms of order higher than first represent nonlinear interactions among the various lagged values of each input point-process or among lagged values of various inputs (if multiple inputs exist) as they reflect on the output. The coefficients of this Boolean-Volterra model are also binary variables that indicate the presence or absence of the respective term in each specific model/system. Simulations are used to explore the properties of such models and the feasibility of their accurate estimation from short data-records in the presence of noise (i.e. spurious spikes). The results demonstrate the feasibility of obtaining reliable estimates of such models, with excitatory and inhibitory terms, in the presence of considerable noise (spurious spikes) in the outputs and/or the inputs in a computationally efficient manner. A pilot application of this approach to an actual neural system is presented in the companion paper (Part II).

  17. Reconstruction of rocks petrophysical properties as input data for reservoir modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantucci, B.; Montegrossi, G.; Lucci, F.; Quattrocchi, F.

    2016-11-01

    The worldwide increasing energy demand triggered studies focused on defining the underground energy potential even in areas previously discharged or neglected. Nowadays, geological gas storage (CO2 and/or CH4) and geothermal energy are considered strategic for low-carbon energy development. A widespread and safe application of these technologies needs an accurate characterization of the underground, in terms of geology, hydrogeology, geochemistry, and geomechanics. However, during prefeasibility study-stage, the limited number of available direct measurements of reservoirs, and the high costs of reopening closed deep wells must be taken into account. The aim of this work is to overcome these limits, proposing a new methodology to reconstruct vertical profiles, from surface to reservoir base, of: (i) thermal capacity, (ii) thermal conductivity, (iii) porosity, and (iv) permeability, through integration of well-log information, petrographic observations on inland outcropping samples, and flow and heat transport modeling. As case study to test our procedure we selected a deep structure, located in the medium Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy). Obtained results are consistent with measured data, confirming the validity of the proposed model. Notwithstanding intrinsic limitations due to manual calibration of the model with measured data, this methodology represents an useful tool for reservoir and geochemical modelers that need to define petrophysical input data for underground modeling before the well reopening.

  18. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamboni, Matieyendou; Monod, Herve; Makowski, David

    2011-01-01

    Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006 ) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.

  19. Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanninen, J.; Vuorinen, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland). Archipelaco Research Inst.], e-mail: jari.hanninen@utu.fi

    2012-11-01

    Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. (orig.)

  20. Neural Systems with Numerically Matched Input-Output Statistic: Isotonic Bivariate Statistical Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Fiori

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Bivariate statistical modeling from incomplete data is a useful statistical tool that allows to discover the model underlying two data sets when the data in the two sets do not correspond in size nor in ordering. Such situation may occur when the sizes of the two data sets do not match (i.e., there are “holes” in the data or when the data sets have been acquired independently. Also, statistical modeling is useful when the amount of available data is enough to show relevant statistical features of the phenomenon underlying the data. We propose to tackle the problem of statistical modeling via a neural (nonlinear system that is able to match its input-output statistic to the statistic of the available data sets. A key point of the new implementation proposed here is that it is based on look-up-table (LUT neural systems, which guarantee a computationally advantageous way of implementing neural systems. A number of numerical experiments, performed on both synthetic and real-world data sets, illustrate the features of the proposed modeling procedure.

  1. Error modeling and tolerance design of a parallel manipulator with full-circle rotation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanbing Ni

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A method for improving the accuracy of a parallel manipulator with full-circle rotation is systematically investigated in this work via kinematic analysis, error modeling, sensitivity analysis, and tolerance allocation. First, a kinematic analysis of the mechanism is made using the space vector chain method. Using the results as a basis, an error model is formulated considering the main error sources. Position and orientation error-mapping models are established by mathematical transformation of the parallelogram structure characteristics. Second, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the geometric error sources. A global sensitivity evaluation index is proposed to evaluate the contribution of the geometric errors to the accuracy of the end-effector. The analysis results provide a theoretical basis for the allocation of tolerances to the parts of the mechanical design. Finally, based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, the design of the tolerances can be solved as a nonlinearly constrained optimization problem. A genetic algorithm is applied to carry out the allocation of the manufacturing tolerances of the parts. Accordingly, the tolerance ranges for nine kinds of geometrical error sources are obtained. The achievements made in this work can also be applied to other similar parallel mechanisms with full-circle rotation to improve error modeling and design accuracy.

  2. SLC beam line error analysis using a model-based expert system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.; Kleban, S.

    1988-02-01

    Commissioning particle beam line is usually a very time-consuming and labor-intensive task for accelerator physicists. To aid in commissioning, we developed a model-based expert system that identifies error-free regions, as well as localizing beam line errors. This paper will give examples of the use of our system for the SLC commissioning. 8 refs., 5 figs

  3. Support Method of Model Description Error Detection on a Programming Environment for Multi Agent Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itakura, Kota; Hatakeyama, Go; Akiyoshi, Masanori; Komoda, Norihisa

    Recently, there are various proposals on tool for multi-agent simulation. However, in such simulation tools, analysts who do not have programming skill spend a lot of time to develop programs because notation of simulation models is not defined sufficiently and programming language is varied on tools. To solve this problem, a programming environment that defines the notation of simulation model has poposed. In this environment, analysts can design simulation with a graph representation and get the program code without writing programs. However, it is difficult to find errors that cause unintended behavior in simulation. Therefore, we propose a support method as a model debugger which helps users to find errors. The debugger generates candidates of errors, using a user's report of unintended behavior based on “typical report patterns”. Candidates of errors are extracted from “tree structure of error-inducing factors” that consists of source patterns of errors. In this paper, we executed experiments that compare time needed for examinees to find errors. Experimental results show the time to find errors by utilizing our model debugger is shortened.

  4. Identification and estimation of nonlinear models using two samples with nonclassical measurement errors

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, Raymond J.

    2010-05-01

    This paper considers identification and estimation of a general nonlinear Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model using two samples. Both samples consist of a dependent variable, some error-free covariates, and an error-prone covariate, for which the measurement error has unknown distribution and could be arbitrarily correlated with the latent true values; and neither sample contains an accurate measurement of the corresponding true variable. We assume that the regression model of interest - the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given the latent true covariate and the error-free covariates - is the same in both samples, but the distributions of the latent true covariates vary with observed error-free discrete covariates. We first show that the general latent nonlinear model is nonparametrically identified using the two samples when both could have nonclassical errors, without either instrumental variables or independence between the two samples. When the two samples are independent and the nonlinear regression model is parameterized, we propose sieve Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation (Q-MLE) for the parameter of interest, and establish its root-n consistency and asymptotic normality under possible misspecification, and its semiparametric efficiency under correct specification, with easily estimated standard errors. A Monte Carlo simulation and a data application are presented to show the power of the approach.

  5. Differential measurement errors in zero-truncated regression models for count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yih-Huei; Hwang, Wen-Han; Chen, Fei-Yin

    2011-12-01

    Measurement errors in covariates may result in biased estimates in regression analysis. Most methods to correct this bias assume nondifferential measurement errors-i.e., that measurement errors are independent of the response variable. However, in regression models for zero-truncated count data, the number of error-prone covariate measurements for a given observational unit can equal its response count, implying a situation of differential measurement errors. To address this challenge, we develop a modified conditional score approach to achieve consistent estimation. The proposed method represents a novel technique, with efficiency gains achieved by augmenting random errors, and performs well in a simulation study. The method is demonstrated in an ecology application. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  6. Development and estimation of a semi-compensatory model with a flexible error structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Shiftan, Yoram; Bekhor, Shlomo

    2012-01-01

    distributed error terms across alternatives at the choice stage. This study relaxes the assumption by introducing nested substitution patterns and alternatively random taste heterogeneity at the choice stage, thus equating the structural flexibility of semi-compensatory models to their compensatory...... counterparts. The proposed model is applied to off-campus rental apartment choice by students. Results show the feasibility and importance of introducing a flexible error structure into semi-compensatory models....

  7. Dynamic modeling of predictive uncertainty by regression on absolute errors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pianosi, F.; Raso, L.

    2012-01-01

    Uncertainty of hydrological forecasts represents valuable information for water managers and hydrologists. This explains the popularity of probabilistic models, which provide the entire distribution of the hydrological forecast. Nevertheless, many existing hydrological models are deterministic and

  8. On the asymptotic ergodic capacity of FSO links with generalized pointing error model

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Quwaiee, Hessa

    2015-09-11

    Free-space optical (FSO) communication systems are negatively affected by two physical phenomenon, namely, scintillation due to atmospheric turbulence and pointing errors. To quantize the effect of these two factors on FSO system performance, we need an effective mathematical model for them. Scintillations are typically modeled by the log-normal and Gamma-Gamma distributions for weak and strong turbulence conditions, respectively. In this paper, we propose and study a generalized pointing error model based on the Beckmann distribution. We then derive the asymptotic ergodic capacity of FSO systems under the joint impact of turbulence and generalized pointing error impairments. © 2015 IEEE.

  9. ANALYZING NUMERICAL ERRORS IN DOMAIN HEAT TRANSPORT MODELS USING THE CVBEM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hromadka, T.V.

    1987-01-01

    Besides providing an exact solution for steady-state heat conduction processes (Laplace-Poisson equations), the CVBEM (complex variable boundary element method) can be used for the numerical error analysis of domain model solutions. For problems where soil-water phase change latent heat effects dominate the thermal regime, heat transport can be approximately modeled as a time-stepped steady-state condition in the thawed and frozen regions, respectively. The CVBEM provides an exact solution of the two-dimensional steady-state heat transport problem, and also provides the error in matching the prescribed boundary conditions by the development of a modeling error distribution or an approximate boundary generation.

  10. Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alacron, Vladimir J.; Nigro, Joseph D.; McAnally, William H.; OHara, Charles G.; Engman, Edwin Ted; Toll, David

    2011-01-01

    This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

  11. Modeling and Controller Design of PV Micro Inverter without Using Electrolytic Capacitors and Input Current Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faa Jeng Lin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the modeling and controller design of a novel two-stage photovoltaic (PV micro inverter (MI that eliminates the need for an electrolytic capacitor (E-cap and input current sensor. The proposed MI uses an active-clamped current-fed push-pull DC-DC converter, cascaded with a full-bridge inverter. Three strategies are proposed to cope with the inherent limitations of a two-stage PV MI: (i high-speed DC bus voltage regulation using an integrator to deal with the 2nd harmonic voltage ripples found in single-phase systems; (ii inclusion of a small film capacitor in the DC bus to achieve ripple-free PV voltage; (iii improved incremental conductance (INC maximum power point tracking (MPPT without the need for current sensing by the PV module. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed system.

  12. Error Modelling for Multi-Sensor Measurements in Infrastructure-Free Indoor Navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Ruotsalainen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The long-term objective of our research is to develop a method for infrastructure-free simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM and context recognition for tactical situational awareness. Localization will be realized by propagating motion measurements obtained using a monocular camera, a foot-mounted Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU, sonar, and a barometer. Due to the size and weight requirements set by tactical applications, Micro-Electro-Mechanical (MEMS sensors will be used. However, MEMS sensors suffer from biases and drift errors that may substantially decrease the position accuracy. Therefore, sophisticated error modelling and implementation of integration algorithms are key for providing a viable result. Algorithms used for multi-sensor fusion have traditionally been different versions of Kalman filters. However, Kalman filters are based on the assumptions that the state propagation and measurement models are linear with additive Gaussian noise. Neither of the assumptions is correct for tactical applications, especially for dismounted soldiers, or rescue personnel. Therefore, error modelling and implementation of advanced fusion algorithms are essential for providing a viable result. Our approach is to use particle filtering (PF, which is a sophisticated option for integrating measurements emerging from pedestrian motion having non-Gaussian error characteristics. This paper discusses the statistical modelling of the measurement errors from inertial sensors and vision based heading and translation measurements to include the correct error probability density functions (pdf in the particle filter implementation. Then, model fitting is used to verify the pdfs of the measurement errors. Based on the deduced error models of the measurements, particle filtering method is developed to fuse all this information, where the weights of each particle are computed based on the specific models derived. The performance of the developed method is

  13. Adjustment of Measurements with Multiplicative Errors: Error Analysis, Estimates of the Variance of Unit Weight, and Effect on Volume Estimation from LiDAR-Type Digital Elevation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Shi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern observation technology has verified that measurement errors can be proportional to the true values of measurements such as GPS, VLBI baselines and LiDAR. Observational models of this type are called multiplicative error models. This paper is to extend the work of Xu and Shimada published in 2000 on multiplicative error models to analytical error analysis of quantities of practical interest and estimates of the variance of unit weight. We analytically derive the variance-covariance matrices of the three least squares (LS adjustments, the adjusted measurements and the corrections of measurements in multiplicative error models. For quality evaluation, we construct five estimators for the variance of unit weight in association of the three LS adjustment methods. Although LiDAR measurements are contaminated with multiplicative random errors, LiDAR-based digital elevation models (DEM have been constructed as if they were of additive random errors. We will simulate a model landslide, which is assumed to be surveyed with LiDAR, and investigate the effect of LiDAR-type multiplicative error measurements on DEM construction and its effect on the estimate of landslide mass volume from the constructed DEM.

  14. Error associated with model predictions of wildland fire rate of spread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel G. Cruz; Martin E. Alexander

    2015-01-01

    How well can we expect to predict the spread rate of wildfires and prescribed fires? The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data (Alexander and Cruz 2013b#. We...

  15. Accounting for covariate measurement error in a Cox model analysis of recurrence of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, K; Mazumdar, S; Stone, R A; Dew, M A; Houck, P R; Reynolds, C F

    2001-01-01

    When a covariate measured with error is used as a predictor in a survival analysis using the Cox model, the parameter estimate is usually biased. In clinical research, covariates measured without error such as treatment procedure or sex are often used in conjunction with a covariate measured with error. In a randomized clinical trial of two types of treatments, we account for the measurement error in the covariate, log-transformed total rapid eye movement (REM) activity counts, in a Cox model analysis of the time to recurrence of major depression in an elderly population. Regression calibration and two variants of a likelihood-based approach are used to account for measurement error. The likelihood-based approach is extended to account for the correlation between replicate measures of the covariate. Using the replicate data decreases the standard error of the parameter estimate for log(total REM) counts while maintaining the bias reduction of the estimate. We conclude that covariate measurement error and the correlation between replicates can affect results in a Cox model analysis and should be accounted for. In the depression data, these methods render comparable results that have less bias than the results when measurement error is ignored.

  16. Better temperature predictions in geothermal modelling by improved quality of input parameters: a regional case study from the Danish-German border region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Bording, Thue S.; Balling, Niels

    2015-04-01

    ) the consideration of laterally varying input data (reflecting changes of thermofacies in the project area) significantly improves the temperature prediction. Thus, the prediction error can easily be reduced by up to 75 % (not calibrated) and up to 50 % (calibrated models), respectively.

  17. Global tropospheric ozone modeling: Quantifying errors due to grid resolution

    OpenAIRE

    Wild, Oliver; Prather, Michael J

    2006-01-01

    Ozone production in global chemical models is dependent on model resolution because ozone chemistry is inherently nonlinear, the timescales for chemical production are short, and precursors are artificially distributed over the spatial scale of the model grid. In this study we examine the sensitivity of ozone, its precursors, and its production to resolution by running a global chemical transport model at four different resolutions between T21 (5.6° × 5.6°) and T106 (1.1° × 1.1°) and by quant...

  18. Specification test for Markov models with measurement errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seonjin; Zhao, Zhibiao

    2014-09-01

    Most existing works on specification testing assume that we have direct observations from the model of interest. We study specification testing for Markov models based on contaminated observations. The evolving model dynamics of the unobservable Markov chain is implicitly coded into the conditional distribution of the observed process. To test whether the underlying Markov chain follows a parametric model, we propose measuring the deviation between nonparametric and parametric estimates of conditional regression functions of the observed process. Specifically, we construct a nonparametric simultaneous confidence band for conditional regression functions and check whether the parametric estimate is contained within the band.

  19. An extended TRANSCAR model including ionospheric convection: simulation of EISCAT observations using inputs from AMIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.-L. Blelly

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available The TRANSCAR ionospheric model was extended to account for the convection of the magnetic field lines in the auroral and polar ionosphere. A mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian 13-moment approach was used to describe the dynamics of an ionospheric plasma tube. In the present study, one focuses on large scale transports in the polar ionosphere. The model was used to simulate a 35-h period of EISCAT-UHF observations on 16-17 February 1993. The first day was magnetically quiet, and characterized by elevated electron concentrations: the diurnal F2 layer reached as much as 1012m-3, which is unusual for a winter and moderate solar activity (F10.7=130 period. An intense geomagnetic event occurred on the second day, seen in the data as a strong intensification of the ionosphere convection velocities in the early afternoon (with the northward electric field reaching 150mVm-1 and corresponding frictional heating of the ions up to 2500K. The simulation used time-dependent AMIE outputs to infer flux-tube transports in the polar region, and to provide magnetospheric particle and energy inputs to the ionosphere. The overall very good agreement, obtained between the model and the observations, demonstrates the high ability of the extended TRANSCAR model for quantitative modelling of the high-latitude ionosphere; however, some differences are found which are attributed to the precipitation of electrons with very low energy. All these results are finally discussed in the frame of modelling the auroral ionosphere with space weather applications in mind.

  20. An extended TRANSCAR model including ionospheric convection: simulation of EISCAT observations using inputs from AMIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.-L. Blelly

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available The TRANSCAR ionospheric model was extended to account for the convection of the magnetic field lines in the auroral and polar ionosphere. A mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian 13-moment approach was used to describe the dynamics of an ionospheric plasma tube. In the present study, one focuses on large scale transports in the polar ionosphere. The model was used to simulate a 35-h period of EISCAT-UHF observations on 16-17 February 1993. The first day was magnetically quiet, and characterized by elevated electron concentrations: the diurnal F2 layer reached as much as 1012m-3, which is unusual for a winter and moderate solar activity (F10.7=130 period. An intense geomagnetic event occurred on the second day, seen in the data as a strong intensification of the ionosphere convection velocities in the early afternoon (with the northward electric field reaching 150mVm-1 and corresponding frictional heating of the ions up to 2500K. The simulation used time-dependent AMIE outputs to infer flux-tube transports in the polar region, and to provide magnetospheric particle and energy inputs to the ionosphere. The overall very good agreement, obtained between the model and the observations, demonstrates the high ability of the extended TRANSCAR model for quantitative modelling of the high-latitude ionosphere; however, some differences are found which are attributed to the precipitation of electrons with very low energy. All these results are finally discussed in the frame of modelling the auroral ionosphere with space weather applications in mind.

  1. Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Steffens

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999 for an important agricultural production area in south-western Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios has the potential to provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses.

  2. Impact of sensor and measurement timing errors on model-based insulin sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretty, Christopher G; Signal, Matthew; Fisk, Liam; Penning, Sophie; Le Compte, Aaron; Shaw, Geoffrey M; Desaive, Thomas; Chase, J Geoffrey

    2014-05-01

    A model-based insulin sensitivity parameter (SI) is often used in glucose-insulin system models to define the glycaemic response to insulin. As a parameter identified from clinical data, insulin sensitivity can be affected by blood glucose (BG) sensor error and measurement timing error, which can subsequently impact analyses or glycaemic variability during control. This study assessed the impact of both measurement timing and BG sensor errors on identified values of SI and its hour-to-hour variability within a common type of glucose-insulin system model. Retrospective clinical data were used from 270 patients admitted to the Christchurch Hospital ICU between 2005 and 2007 to identify insulin sensitivity profiles. We developed error models for the Abbott Optium Xceed glucometer and measurement timing from clinical data. The effect of these errors on the re-identified insulin sensitivity was investigated by Monte-Carlo analysis. The results of the study show that timing errors in isolation have little clinically significant impact on identified SI level or variability. The clinical impact of changes to SI level induced by combined sensor and timing errors is likely to be significant during glycaemic control. Identified values of SI were mostly (90th percentile) within 29% of the true value when influenced by both sources of error. However, these effects may be overshadowed by physiological factors arising from the critical condition of the patients or other under-modelled or un-modelled dynamics. Thus, glycaemic control protocols that are designed to work with data from glucometers need to be robust to these errors and not be too aggressive in dosing insulin. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Modeling the probability distribution of positional errors incurred by residential address geocoding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazumdar Soumya

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The assignment of a point-level geocode to subjects' residences is an important data assimilation component of many geographic public health studies. Often, these assignments are made by a method known as automated geocoding, which attempts to match each subject's address to an address-ranged street segment georeferenced within a streetline database and then interpolate the position of the address along that segment. Unfortunately, this process results in positional errors. Our study sought to model the probability distribution of positional errors associated with automated geocoding and E911 geocoding. Results Positional errors were determined for 1423 rural addresses in Carroll County, Iowa as the vector difference between each 100%-matched automated geocode and its true location as determined by orthophoto and parcel information. Errors were also determined for 1449 60%-matched geocodes and 2354 E911 geocodes. Huge (> 15 km outliers occurred among the 60%-matched geocoding errors; outliers occurred for the other two types of geocoding errors also but were much smaller. E911 geocoding was more accurate (median error length = 44 m than 100%-matched automated geocoding (median error length = 168 m. The empirical distributions of positional errors associated with 100%-matched automated geocoding and E911 geocoding exhibited a distinctive Greek-cross shape and had many other interesting features that were not capable of being fitted adequately by a single bivariate normal or t distribution. However, mixtures of t distributions with two or three components fit the errors very well. Conclusion Mixtures of bivariate t distributions with few components appear to be flexible enough to fit many positional error datasets associated with geocoding, yet parsimonious enough to be feasible for nascent applications of measurement-error methodology to spatial epidemiology.

  4. Correction for Measurement Error from Genotyping-by-Sequencing in Genomic Variance and Genomic Prediction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashraf, Bilal; Janss, Luc; Jensen, Just

    sample). The GBSeq data can be used directly in genomic models in the form of individual SNP allele-frequency estimates (e.g., reference reads/total reads per polymorphic site per individual), but is subject to measurement error due to the low sequencing depth per individual. Due to technical reasons....... In the current work we show how the correction for measurement error in GBSeq can also be applied in whole genome genomic variance and genomic prediction models. Bayesian whole-genome random regression models are proposed to allow implementation of large-scale SNP-based models with a per-SNP correction...... for measurement error. We show correct retrieval of genomic explained variance, and improved genomic prediction when accounting for the measurement error in GBSeq data...

  5. An empirical assessment of exposure measurement errors and effect attenuation in bi-pollutant epidemiologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using multipollutant models to understand the combined health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants is becoming more common. However, the complex relationships between pollutants and differing degrees of exposure error across pollutants can make health effect estimates from ...

  6. An empirical assessment of exposure measurement error and effect attenuation in bi-pollutant epidemiologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background: Using multipollutant models to understand combined health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants is becoming more common. However, complex relationships between pollutants and differing degrees of exposure error across pollutants can make health effect estimates f...

  7. Assessing data assimilation and model boundary error strategies for high resolution ocean model downscaling in the Northern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandvig Mariegaard, Jesper; Huiban, Méven Robin; Tornfeldt Sørensen, Jacob; Andersson, Henrik

    2017-04-01

    Determining the optimal domain size and associated position of open boundaries in local high-resolution downscaling ocean models is often difficult. As an important input data set for downscaling ocean modelling, the European Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) provides baroclinic initial and boundary conditions for local ocean models. Tidal dynamics is often neglected in CMEMS services at large scale but tides are generally crucial for coastal ocean dynamics. To address this need, tides can be superposed via Flather (1976) boundary conditions and the combined flow downscaled using unstructured mesh. The surge component is also only partially represented in selected CMEMS products and must be modelled inside the domain and modelled independently and superposed if the domain becomes too small to model the effect in the downscaling model. The tide and surge components can generally be improved by assimilating water level from tide gauge and altimetry data. An intrinsic part of the problem is to find the limitations of local scale data assimilation and the requirement for consistency between the larger scale ocean models and the local scale assimilation methodologies. This contribution investigates the impact of domain size and associated positions of open boundaries with and without data assimilation of water level. We have used the baroclinic ocean model, MIKE 3 FM, and its newly re-factored built-in data assimilation package. We consider boundary conditions of salinity, temperature, water level and depth varying currents from the Global CMEMS 1/4 degree resolution model from 2011, where in situ ADCP velocity data is available for validation. We apply data assimilation of in-situ tide gauge water levels and along track altimetry surface elevation data from selected satellites. The MIKE 3 FM data assimilation model which use the Ensemble Kalman filter have recently been parallelized with MPI allowing for much larger applications running on HPC

  8. What Makes Hydrologic Models Differ? Using SUMMA to Systematically Explore Model Uncertainty and Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    Model intercomparison experiments have been conducted to quantify the variability introduced during the model development process, but have had limited success in identifying the sources of this model variability. The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) has been developed as a framework which defines a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy as well as a common core of numerical solvers along with the ability to set options for choosing between different spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. SUMMA can be thought of as a framework for implementing meta-models which allows for the investigation of the impacts of decisions made during the model development process. Through this flexibility we develop a hierarchy of definitions which allows for models to be compared to one another. This vocabulary allows us to define the notion of weak equivalence between model instantiations. Through this weak equivalence we develop the concept of model mimicry, which can be used to investigate the introduction of uncertainty and error during the modeling process as well as provide a framework for identifying modeling decisions which may complement or negate one another. We instantiate SUMMA instances that mimic the behaviors of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by choosing modeling decisions which are implemented in each model. We compare runs from these models and their corresponding mimics across the Columbia River Basin located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. From these comparisons, we are able to determine the extent to which model implementation has an effect on the results, as well as determine the changes in sensitivity of parameters due to these implementation differences. By examining these changes in results and sensitivities we can attempt to postulate changes in the modeling decisions which may provide better estimation of

  9. A novel multitemporal insar model for joint estimation of deformation rates and orbital errors

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Lei

    2014-06-01

    Orbital errors, characterized typically as longwavelength artifacts, commonly exist in interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery as a result of inaccurate determination of the sensor state vector. Orbital errors degrade the precision of multitemporal InSAR products (i.e., ground deformation). Although research on orbital error reduction has been ongoing for nearly two decades and several algorithms for reducing the effect of the errors are already in existence, the errors cannot always be corrected efficiently and reliably. We propose a novel model that is able to jointly estimate deformation rates and orbital errors based on the different spatialoral characteristics of the two types of signals. The proposed model is able to isolate a long-wavelength ground motion signal from the orbital error even when the two types of signals exhibit similar spatial patterns. The proposed algorithm is efficient and requires no ground control points. In addition, the method is built upon wrapped phases of interferograms, eliminating the need of phase unwrapping. The performance of the proposed model is validated using both simulated and real data sets. The demo codes of the proposed model are also provided for reference. © 2013 IEEE.

  10. On the Asymptotic Capacity of Dual-Aperture FSO Systems with a Generalized Pointing Error Model

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Quwaiee, Hessa

    2016-06-28

    Free-space optical (FSO) communication systems are negatively affected by two physical phenomenon, namely, scintillation due to atmospheric turbulence and pointing errors. To quantify the effect of these two factors on FSO system performance, we need an effective mathematical model for them. In this paper, we propose and study a generalized pointing error model based on the Beckmann distribution. We then derive a generic expression of the asymptotic capacity of FSO systems under the joint impact of turbulence and generalized pointing error impairments. Finally, the asymptotic channel capacity formula are extended to quantify the FSO systems performance with selection and switched-and-stay diversity.

  11. Error statistics of hidden Markov model and hidden Boltzmann model results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Newberg Lee A

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hidden Markov models and hidden Boltzmann models are employed in computational biology and a variety of other scientific fields for a variety of analyses of sequential data. Whether the associated algorithms are used to compute an actual probability or, more generally, an odds ratio or some other score, a frequent requirement is that the error statistics of a given score be known. What is the chance that random data would achieve that score or better? What is the chance that a real signal would achieve a given score threshold? Results Here we present a novel general approach to estimating these false positive and true positive rates that is significantly more efficient than are existing general approaches. We validate the technique via an implementation within the HMMER 3.0 package, which scans DNA or protein sequence databases for patterns of interest, using a profile-HMM. Conclusion The new approach is faster than general naïve sampling approaches, and more general than other current approaches. It provides an efficient mechanism by which to estimate error statistics for hidden Markov model and hidden Boltzmann model results.

  12. A Formal Model to Analyse the Firewall Configuration Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. T. Myo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The firewall is widely known as a brandmauer (security-edge gateway. To provide the demanded security, the firewall has to be appropriately adjusted, i.e. be configured. Unfortunately, when configuring, even the skilled administrators may make mistakes, which result in decreasing level of a network security and network infiltration undesirable packages.The network can be exposed to various threats and attacks. One of the mechanisms used to ensure network security is the firewall.The firewall is a network component, which, using a security policy, controls packages passing through the borders of a secured network. The security policy represents the set of rules.Package filters work in the mode without inspection of a state: they investigate packages as the independent objects. Rules take the following form: (condition, action. The firewall analyses the entering traffic, based on the IP address of the sender and recipient, the port number of the sender and recipient, and the used protocol. When the package meets rule conditions, the action specified in the rule is carried out. It can be: allow, deny.The aim of this article is to develop tools to analyse a firewall configuration with inspection of states. The input data are the file with the set of rules. It is required to submit the analysis of a security policy in an informative graphic form as well as to reveal discrepancy available in rules. The article presents a security policy visualization algorithm and a program, which shows how the firewall rules act on all possible packages. To represent a result in an intelligible form a concept of the equivalence region is introduced.Our task is the program to display results of rules action on the packages in a convenient graphic form as well as to reveal contradictions between the rules. One of problems is the large number of measurements. As it was noted above, the following parameters are specified in the rule: Source IP address, appointment IP

  13. Realistic modeling of seismic input for megacities and large urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, Giuliano F.; Alvarez, Leonardo; Aoudia, Abdelkrim

    2002-06-01

    The project addressed the problem of pre-disaster orientation: hazard prediction, risk assessment, and hazard mapping, in connection with seismic activity and man-induced vibrations. The definition of realistic seismic input has been obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models. The innovative modeling technique, that constitutes the common tool to the entire project, takes into account source, propagation and local site effects. This is done using first principles of physics about wave generation and propagation in complex media, and does not require to resort to convolutive approaches, that have been proven to be quite unreliable, mainly when dealing with complex geological structures, the most interesting from the practical point of view. In fact, several techniques that have been proposed to empirically estimate the site effects using observations convolved with theoretically computed signals corresponding to simplified models, supply reliable information about the site response to non-interfering seismic phases. They are not adequate in most of the real cases, when the seismic sequel is formed by several interfering waves. The availability of realistic numerical simulations enables us to reliably estimate the amplification effects even in complex geological structures, exploiting the available geotechnical, lithological, geophysical parameters, topography of the medium, tectonic, historical, palaeoseismological data, and seismotectonic models. The realistic modeling of the ground motion is a very important base of knowledge for the preparation of groundshaking scenarios that represent a valid and economic tool for the seismic microzonation. This knowledge can be very fruitfully used by civil engineers in the design of new seismo-resistant constructions and in the reinforcement of the existing built environment, and, therefore

  14. Predicting musically induced emotions from physiological inputs: Linear and neural network models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A. Russo

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Listening to music often leads to physiological responses. Do these physiological responses contain sufficient information to infer emotion induced in the listener? The current study explores this question by attempting to predict judgments of 'felt' emotion from physiological responses alone using linear and neural network models. We measured five channels of peripheral physiology from 20 participants – heart rate, respiration, galvanic skin response, and activity in corrugator supercilii and zygomaticus major facial muscles. Using valence and arousal (VA dimensions, participants rated their felt emotion after listening to each of 12 classical music excerpts. After extracting features from the five channels, we examined their correlation with VA ratings, and then performed multiple linear regression to see if a linear relationship between the physiological responses could account for the ratings. Although linear models predicted a significant amount of variance in arousal ratings, they were unable to do so with valence ratings. We then used a neural network to provide a nonlinear account of the ratings. The network was trained on the mean ratings of eight of the 12 excerpts and tested on the remainder. Performance of the neural network confirms that physiological responses alone can be used to predict musically induced emotion. The nonlinear model derived from the neural network was more accurate than linear models derived from multiple linear regression, particularly along the valence dimension. A secondary analysis allowed us to quantify the relative contributions of inputs to the nonlinear model. The study represents a novel approach to understanding the complex relationship between physiological responses and musically induced emotion.

  15. Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)-Based Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) Stock Forecasting Model

    OpenAIRE

    I. M. Yassin; M. F. Abdul Khalid; S. H. Herman; I. Pasya; N. Ab Wahab; Z. Awang

    2017-01-01

    The prediction of stocks in the stock market is important in investment as it would help the investor to time buy and sell transactions to maximize profits. In this paper, a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)-based Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) model was used to predict the prices of the Apple Inc. weekly stock prices over a time horizon of 1995 to 2013. The NARX model belongs is a system identification model that constructs a mathematical model from the dynamic input/outpu...

  16. "Updates to Model Algorithms & Inputs for the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) Model"

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have developed new canopy emission algorithms and land use data for BEIS. Simulations with BEIS v3.4 and these updates in CMAQ v5.0.2 are compared these changes to the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and evaluated the simulations against observatio...

  17. An Enhanced MEMS Error Modeling Approach Based on Nu-Support Vector Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Bhatt

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Micro Electro Mechanical System (MEMS-based inertial sensors have made possible the development of a civilian land vehicle navigation system by offering a low-cost solution. However, the accurate modeling of the MEMS sensor errors is one of the most challenging tasks in the design of low-cost navigation systems. These sensors exhibit significant errors like biases, drift, noises; which are negligible for higher grade units. Different conventional techniques utilizing the Gauss Markov model and neural network method have been previously utilized to model the errors. However, Gauss Markov model works unsatisfactorily in the case of MEMS units due to the presence of high inherent sensor errors. On the other hand, modeling the random drift utilizing Neural Network (NN is time consuming, thereby affecting its real-time implementation. We overcome these existing drawbacks by developing an enhanced Support Vector Machine (SVM based error model. Unlike NN, SVMs do not suffer from local minimisation or over-fitting problems and delivers a reliable global solution. Experimental results proved that the proposed SVM approach reduced the noise standard deviation by 10–35% for gyroscopes and 61–76% for accelerometers. Further, positional error drifts under static conditions improved by 41% and 80% in comparison to NN and GM approaches.

  18. Sensitivity, Error and Uncertainty Quantification: Interfacing Models at Different Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krstic, Predrag S.

    2014-01-01

    Discussion on accuracy of AMO data to be used in the plasma modeling codes for astrophysics and nuclear fusion applications, including plasma-material interfaces (PMI), involves many orders of magnitude of energy, spatial and temporal scales. Thus, energies run from tens of K to hundreds of millions of K, temporal and spatial scales go from fs to years and from nm’s to m’s and more, respectively. The key challenge for the theory and simulation in this field is the consistent integration of all processes and scales, i.e. an “integrated AMO science” (IAMO). The principal goal of the IAMO science is to enable accurate studies of interactions of electrons, atoms, molecules, photons, in many-body environment, including complex collision physics of plasma-material interfaces, leading to the best decisions and predictions. However, the accuracy requirement for a particular data strongly depends on the sensitivity of the respective plasma modeling applications to these data, which stresses a need for immediate sensitivity analysis feedback of the plasma modeling and material design communities. Thus, the data provision to the plasma modeling community is a “two-way road” as long as the accuracy of the data is considered, requiring close interactions of the AMO and plasma modeling communities.

  19. State-Space Analysis of Model Error: A Probabilistic Parameter Estimation Framework with Spatial Analysis of Variance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    atmospheric models and the chaotic growth of initial-condition (IC) error. The aim of our work is to provide new methods that begin to systematically disentangle the model inadequacy signal from the initial condition error signal.

  20. Categorical Inputs, Sensitivity Analysis, Optimization and Importance Tempering with tgp Version 2, an R Package for Treed Gaussian Process Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert B. Gramacy

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This document describes the new features in version 2.x of the tgp package for R, implementing treed Gaussian process (GP models. The topics covered include methods for dealing with categorical inputs and excluding inputs from the tree or GP part of the model; fully Bayesian sensitivity analysis for inputs/covariates; sequential optimization of black-box functions; and a new Monte Carlo method for inference in multi-modal posterior distributions that combines simulated tempering and importance sampling. These additions extend the functionality of tgp across all models in the hierarchy: from Bayesian linear models, to classification and regression trees (CART, to treed Gaussian processes with jumps to the limiting linear model. It is assumed that the reader is familiar with the baseline functionality of the package, outlined in the first vignette (Gramacy 2007.

  1. Performance modeling of the effects of aperture phase error, turbulence, and thermal blooming on tiled subaperture systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leakeas, Charles L.; Capehart, Shay R.; Bartell, Richard J.; Cusumano, Salvatore J.; Whiteley, Matthew R.

    2011-06-01

    Laser weapon systems comprised of tiled subapertures are rapidly emerging in importance in the directed energy community. Performance models of these laser weapon systems have been developed from numerical simulations of a high fidelity wave-optics code called WaveTrain which is developed by MZA Associates. System characteristics such as mutual coherence, differential jitter, and beam quality rms wavefront error are defined for a focused beam on the target. Engagement scenarios are defined for various platform and target altitudes, speeds, headings, and slant ranges along with the natural wind speed and heading. Inputs to the performance model include platform and target height and velocities, Fried coherence length, Rytov number, isoplanatic angle, thermal blooming distortion number, Greenwood and Tyler frequencies, and atmospheric transmission. The performance model fit is based on power-in-the-bucket (PIB) values against the PIB from the simulation results for the vacuum diffraction-limited spot size as the bucket. The goal is to develop robust performance models for aperture phase error, turbulence, and thermal blooming effects in tiled subaperture systems.

  2. Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System Modeling, Calibration, and Error Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlgaard, Christopher D.; VanNorman, John; Siemers, Paul M.; Schoenenberger, Mark; Munk, Michelle M.

    2014-01-01

    The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI)/Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) project installed seven pressure ports through the MSL Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield to measure heatshield surface pressures during entry. These measured surface pressures are used to generate estimates of atmospheric quantities based on modeled surface pressure distributions. In particular, the quantities to be estimated from the MEADS pressure measurements include the dynamic pressure, angle of attack, and angle of sideslip. This report describes the calibration of the pressure transducers utilized to reconstruct the atmospheric data and associated uncertainty models, pressure modeling and uncertainty analysis, and system performance results. The results indicate that the MEADS pressure measurement system hardware meets the project requirements.

  3. The importance of time-stepping errors in ocean models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P. D.

    2011-12-01

    Many ocean models use leapfrog time stepping. The Robert-Asselin (RA) filter is usually applied after each leapfrog step, to control the computational mode. However, it will be shown in this presentation that the RA filter generates very large amounts of numerical diapycnal mixing. In some ocean models, the numerical diapycnal mixing from the RA filter is as large as the physical diapycnal mixing. This lowers our confidence in the fidelity of the simulations. In addition to the above problem, the RA filter also damps the physical solution and degrades the numerical accuracy. These two concomitant problems occur because the RA filter does not conserve the mean state, averaged over the three time slices on which it operates. The presenter has recently proposed a simple modification to the RA filter, which does conserve the three-time-level mean state. The modified filter has become known as the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter. When used in conjunction with the leapfrog scheme, the RAW filter eliminates the numerical damping of the physical solution and increases the amplitude accuracy by two orders, yielding third-order accuracy. The phase accuracy is unaffected and remains second-order. The RAW filter can easily be incorporated into existing models of the ocean, typically via the insertion of just a single line of code. Better simulations are obtained, at almost no additional computational expense. Results will be shown from recent implementations of the RAW filter in various ocean models. For example, in the UK Met Office Hadley Centre ocean model, sea-surface temperature and sea-ice biases in the North Atlantic Ocean are found to be reduced. These improvements are encouraging for the use of the RAW filter in other ocean models.

  4. Error Modeling and Design Optimization of Parallel Manipulators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Guanglei

    challenges due to their highly nonlinear behaviors, thus, the parameter and performance analysis, especially the accuracy and stiness, are particularly important. Toward the requirements of robotic technology such as light weight, compactness, high accuracy and low energy consumption, utilizing optimization...... theory and virtual spring approach, a general kinetostatic model of the spherical parallel manipulators is developed and validated with Finite Element approach. This model is applied to the stiness analysis of a special spherical parallel manipulator with unlimited rolling motion and the obtained stiness...

  5. National Aeronautics and Space Administration "threat and error" model applied to pediatric cardiac surgery: error cycles precede ∼85% of patient deaths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickey, Edward J; Nosikova, Yaroslavna; Pham-Hung, Eric; Gritti, Michael; Schwartz, Steven; Caldarone, Christopher A; Redington, Andrew; Van Arsdell, Glen S

    2015-02-01

    We hypothesized that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration "threat and error" model (which is derived from analyzing >30,000 commercial flights, and explains >90% of crashes) is directly applicable to pediatric cardiac surgery. We implemented a unit-wide performance initiative, whereby every surgical admission constitutes a "flight" and is tracked in real time, with the aim of identifying errors. The first 500 consecutive patients (524 flights) were analyzed, with an emphasis on the relationship between error cycles and permanent harmful outcomes. Among 524 patient flights (risk adjustment for congenital heart surgery category: 1-6; median: 2) 68 (13%) involved residual hemodynamic lesions, 13 (2.5%) permanent end-organ injuries, and 7 deaths (1.3%). Preoperatively, 763 threats were identified in 379 (72%) flights. Only 51% of patient flights (267) were error free. In the remaining 257 flights, 430 errors occurred, most commonly related to proficiency (280; 65%) or judgment (69, 16%). In most flights with errors (173 of 257; 67%), an unintended clinical state resulted, ie, the error was consequential. In 60% of consequential errors (n = 110; 21% of total), subsequent cycles of additional error/unintended states occurred. Cycles, particularly those containing multiple errors, were very significantly associated with permanent harmful end-states, including residual hemodynamic lesions (P < .0001), end-organ injury (P < .0001), and death (P < .0001). Deaths were almost always preceded by cycles (6 of 7; P < .0001). Human error, if not mitigated, often leads to cycles of error and unintended patient states, which are dangerous and precede the majority of harmful outcomes. Efforts to manage threats and error cycles (through crew resource management techniques) are likely to yield large increases in patient safety. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  6. Fouling resistance prediction using artificial neural network nonlinear auto-regressive with exogenous input model based on operating conditions and fluid properties correlations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biyanto, Totok R. [Department of Engineering Physics, Institute Technology of Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya, Surabaya, Indonesia 60111 (Indonesia)

    2016-06-03

    Fouling in a heat exchanger in Crude Preheat Train (CPT) refinery is an unsolved problem that reduces the plant efficiency, increases fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emission. The fouling resistance behavior is very complex. It is difficult to develop a model using first principle equation to predict the fouling resistance due to different operating conditions and different crude blends. In this paper, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) with input structure using Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with eXogenous (NARX) is utilized to build the fouling resistance model in shell and tube heat exchanger (STHX). The input data of the model are flow rates and temperatures of the streams of the heat exchanger, physical properties of product and crude blend data. This model serves as a predicting tool to optimize operating conditions and preventive maintenance of STHX. The results show that the model can capture the complexity of fouling characteristics in heat exchanger due to thermodynamic conditions and variations in crude oil properties (blends). It was found that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are suitable to capture the nonlinearity and complexity of the STHX fouling resistance during phases of training and validation.

  7. Modelling Implicit Communication in Multi-Agent Systems with Hybrid Input/Output Automata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Capiluppi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available We propose an extension of Hybrid I/O Automata (HIOAs to model agent systems and their implicit communication through perturbation of the environment, like localization of objects or radio signals diffusion and detection. To this end we decided to specialize some variables of the HIOAs whose values are functions both of time and space. We call them world variables. Basically they are treated similarly to the other variables of HIOAs, but they have the function of representing the interaction of each automaton with the surrounding environment, hence they can be output, input or internal variables. Since these special variables have the role of simulating implicit communication, their dynamics are specified both in time and space, because they model the perturbations induced by the agent to the environment, and the perturbations of the environment as perceived by the agent. Parallel composition of world variables is slightly different from parallel composition of the other variables, since their signals are summed. The theory is illustrated through a simple example of agents systems.

  8. Effects of model input data uncertainty in simulating water resources of a transnational catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargos, Carla; Breuer, Lutz

    2016-04-01

    Landscape consists of different ecosystem components and how these components affect water quantity and quality need to be understood. We start from the assumption that water resources are generated in landscapes and that rural land use (particular agriculture) has a strong impact on water resources that are used downstream for domestic and industrial supply. Partly located in the north of Luxembourg and partly in the southeast of Belgium, the Haute-Sûre catchment is about 943 km2. As part of the catchment, the Haute-Sûre Lake is an important source of drinking water for Luxembourg population, satisfying 30% of the city's demand. The objective of this study is investigate impact of spatial input data uncertainty on water resources simulations for the Haute-Sûre catchment. We apply the SWAT model for the period 2006 to 2012 and use a variety of digital information on soils, elevation and land uses with various spatial resolutions. Several objective functions are being evaluated and we consider resulting parameter uncertainty to quantify an important part of the global uncertainty in model simulations.

  9. Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R

    2014-03-01

    Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

    2013-10-01

    Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Vascular input function correction of inflow enhancement for improved pharmacokinetic modeling of liver DCE-MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Jia; Schubert, Tilman; Johnson, Kevin M; Roldán-Alzate, Alejandro; Chen, Huijun; Yuan, Chun; Reeder, Scott B

    2018-06-01

    To propose a simple method to correct vascular input function (VIF) due to inflow effects and to test whether the proposed method can provide more accurate VIFs for improved pharmacokinetic modeling. A spoiled gradient echo sequence-based inflow quantification and contrast agent concentration correction method was proposed. Simulations were conducted to illustrate improvement in the accuracy of VIF estimation and pharmacokinetic fitting. Animal studies with dynamic contrast-enhanced MR scans were conducted before, 1 week after, and 2 weeks after portal vein embolization (PVE) was performed in the left portal circulation of pigs. The proposed method was applied to correct the VIFs for model fitting. Pharmacokinetic parameters fitted using corrected and uncorrected VIFs were compared between different lobes and visits. Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method can improve accuracy of VIF estimation and pharmacokinetic fitting. In animal study results, pharmacokinetic fitting using corrected VIFs demonstrated changes in perfusion consistent with changes expected after PVE, whereas the perfusion estimates derived by uncorrected VIFs showed no significant changes. The proposed correction method improves accuracy of VIFs and therefore provides more precise pharmacokinetic fitting. This method may be promising in improving the reliability of perfusion quantification. Magn Reson Med 79:3093-3102, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

  12. Three-scale input-output modeling for urban economy: Carbon emission by Beijing 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, G. Q.; Guo, Shan; Shao, Ling; Li, J. S.; Chen, Zhan-Ming

    2013-09-01

    For urban economies, an ecological endowment embodiment analysis has to be supported by endowment intensities at both the international and domestic scales to reflect the international and domestic imports of increasing importance. A three-scale input-output modeling for an urban economy to give nine categories of embodiment fluxes is presented in this paper by a case study on the carbon dioxide emissions by the Beijing economy in 2007, based on the carbon intensities for the average world and national economies. The total direct emissions are estimated at 1.03E+08 t, in which 91.61% is energy-related emissions. By the modeling, emissions embodied in fixed capital formation amount to 7.20E+07 t, emissions embodied in household consumption are 1.58 times those in government consumption, and emissions in gross capital formation are 14.93% more than those in gross consumption. As a net exporter of carbon emissions, Beijing exports 5.21E+08 t carbon embodied in foreign imported commodities and 1.06E+08 t in domestic imported commodities, while emissions embodied in foreign and domestic imported commodities are 3.34E+07 and 1.75E+08 t respectively. The algorithm presented in this study is applicable to the embodiment analysis of other environmental resources for regional economies characteristic of multi-scales.

  13. Three-Verb Clusters in Interference Frisian: A Stochastic Model over Sequential Syntactic Input.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Eric; Versloot, Arjen

    2016-03-01

    Abstract Interference Frisian (IF) is a variety of Frisian, spoken by mostly younger speakers, which is heavily influenced by Dutch. IF exhibits all six logically possible word orders in a cluster of three verbs. This phenomenon has been researched by Koeneman and Postma (2006), who argue for a parameter theory, which leaves frequency differences between various orders unexplained. Rejecting Koeneman and Postma's parameter theory, but accepting their conclusion that Dutch (and Frisian) data are input for the grammar of IF, we will argue that the word order preferences of speakers of IF are determined by frequency and similarity. More specifically, three-verb clusters in IF are sensitive to: their linear left-to-right similarity to two-verb clusters and three-verb clusters in Frisian and in Dutch; the (estimated) frequency of two- and three-verb clusters in Frisian and Dutch. The model will be shown to work best if Dutch and Frisian, and two- and three-verb clusters, have equal impact factors. If different impact factors are taken, the model's predictions do not change substantially, testifying to its robustness. This analysis is in line with recent ideas that the sequential nature of human speech is more important to syntactic processes than commonly assumed, and that less burden need be put on the hierarchical dimension of syntactic structure.

  14. Realistic modelling of the seismic input: Site effects and parametric studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G.F.

    2002-11-01

    We illustrate the work done in the framework of a large international cooperation, showing the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the framework of the EC project 'Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges' (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures. The definition of the seismic input at the Warth bridge site, i.e. the determination of the seismic ground motion due to an earthquake with a given magnitude and epicentral distance from the site, has been done following a theoretical approach. In order to perform an accurate and realistic estimate of site effects and of differential motion it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters, in realistic geological structures. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different sources and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of the reach of stochastic models, at a very low cost/benefit ratio. (author)

  15. Evaluating the effects of model structure and meteorological input data on runoff modelling in an alpine headwater basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schattan, Paul; Bellinger, Johannes; Förster, Kristian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Kirnbauer, Robert; Achleitner, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Modelling water resources in snow-dominated mountainous catchments is challenging due to both, short concentration times and a highly variable contribution of snow melt in space and time from complex terrain. A number of model setups exist ranging from physically based models to conceptional models which do not attempt to represent the natural processes in a physically meaningful way. Within the flood forecasting system for the Tyrolean Inn River two serially linked hydrological models with differing process representation are used. Non- glacierized catchments are modelled by a semi-distributed, water balance model (HQsim) based on the HRU-approach. A fully-distributed energy and mass balance model (SES), purpose-built for snow- and icemelt, is used for highly glacierized headwater catchments. Previous work revealed uncertainties and limitations within the models' structures regarding (i) the representation of snow processes in HQsim, (ii) the runoff routing of SES, and (iii) the spatial resolution of the meteorological input data in both models. To overcome these limitations, a "strengths driven" model coupling is applied. Instead of linking the models serially, a vertical one-way coupling of models has been implemented. The fully-distributed snow modelling of SES is combined with the semi-distributed HQsim structure, allowing to benefit from soil and runoff routing schemes in HQsim. A monte-carlo based modelling experiment was set up to evaluate the resulting differences in the runoff prediction due to the improved model coupling and a refined spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing. The experiment design follows a gradient of spatial discretisation of hydrological processes and meteorological forcing data with a total of six different model setups for the alpine headwater basin of the Fagge River in the Tyrolean Alps. In general, all setups show a good performance for this particular basin. It is therefore planned to include other basins with differing

  16. A Nonlinear Multiparameters Temperature Error Modeling and Compensation of POS Applied in Airborne Remote Sensing System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianli Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The position and orientation system (POS is a key equipment for airborne remote sensing systems, which provides high-precision position, velocity, and attitude information for various imaging payloads. Temperature error is the main source that affects the precision of POS. Traditional temperature error model is single temperature parameter linear function, which is not sufficient for the higher accuracy requirement of POS. The traditional compensation method based on neural network faces great problem in the repeatability error under different temperature conditions. In order to improve the precision and generalization ability of the temperature error compensation for POS, a nonlinear multiparameters temperature error modeling and compensation method based on Bayesian regularization neural network was proposed. The temperature error of POS was analyzed and a nonlinear multiparameters model was established. Bayesian regularization method was used as the evaluation criterion, which further optimized the coefficients of the temperature error. The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve temperature environmental adaptability and precision. The developed POS had been successfully applied in airborne TSMFTIS remote sensing system for the first time, which improved the accuracy of the reconstructed spectrum by 47.99%.

  17. Modeling the Error of the Medtronic Paradigm Veo Enlite Glucose Sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagi, Lyvia; Ramkissoon, Charrise M; Facchinetti, Andrea; Leal, Yenny; Vehi, Josep

    2017-06-12

    Continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) are prone to inaccuracy due to time lags, sensor drift, calibration errors, and measurement noise. The aim of this study is to derive the model of the error of the second generation Medtronic Paradigm Veo Enlite (ENL) sensor and compare it with the Dexcom SEVEN PLUS (7P), G4 PLATINUM (G4P), and advanced G4 for Artificial Pancreas studies (G4AP) systems. An enhanced methodology to a previously employed technique was utilized to dissect the sensor error into several components. The dataset used included 37 inpatient sessions in 10 subjects with type 1 diabetes (T1D), in which CGMs were worn in parallel and blood glucose (BG) samples were analyzed every 15 ± 5 min Calibration error and sensor drift of the ENL sensor was best described by a linear relationship related to the gain and offset. The mean time lag estimated by the model is 9.4 ± 6.5 min. The overall average mean absolute relative difference (MARD) of the ENL sensor was 11.68 ± 5.07% Calibration error had the highest contribution to total error in the ENL sensor. This was also reported in the 7P, G4P, and G4AP. The model of the ENL sensor error will be useful to test the in silico performance of CGM-based applications, i.e., the artificial pancreas, employing this kind of sensor.

  18. Performances of estimators of linear auto-correlated error model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The performances of five estimators of linear models with autocorrelated disturbance terms are compared when the independent variable is exponential. The results reveal that for both small and large samples, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) compares favourably with the Generalized least Squares (GLS) estimators in ...

  19. Aligned rank tests for the linear model with heteroscedastic errors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, Willem/Wim; Akritas, Michael G.

    1993-01-01

    We consider the problem of testing subhypotheses in a heteroscedastic linear regression model. The proposed test statistics are based on the ranks of scaled residuals obtained under the null hypothesis. Any estimator that is n -consistent under the null hypothesis can be used to form the residuals.

  20. Including operational data in QMRA model: development and impact of model inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaidi, Kenza; Barbeau, Benoit; Carrière, Annie; Desjardins, Raymond; Prévost, Michèle

    2009-03-01

    A Monte Carlo model, based on the Quantitative Microbial Risk Analysis approach (QMRA), has been developed to assess the relative risks of infection associated with the presence of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in drinking water. The impact of various approaches for modelling the initial parameters of the model on the final risk assessments is evaluated. The Monte Carlo simulations that we performed showed that the occurrence of parasites in raw water was best described by a mixed distribution: log-Normal for concentrations > detection limit (DL), and a uniform distribution for concentrations risks significantly. The mean annual risks for conventional treatment are: 1.97E-03 (removal credit adjusted by log parasite = log spores), 1.58E-05 (log parasite = 1.7 x log spores) or 9.33E-03 (regulatory credits based on the turbidity measurement in filtered water). Using full scale validated SCADA data, the simplified calculation of CT performed at the plant was shown to largely underestimate the risk relative to a more detailed CT calculation, which takes into consideration the downtime and system failure events identified at the plant (1.46E-03 vs. 3.93E-02 for the mean risk).

  1. Measurement system and model for simultaneously measuring 6DOF geometric errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yuqiong; Zhang, Bin; Feng, Qibo

    2017-09-04

    A measurement system to simultaneously measure six degree-of-freedom (6DOF) geometric errors is proposed. The measurement method is based on a combination of mono-frequency laser interferometry and laser fiber collimation. A simpler and more integrated optical configuration is designed. To compensate for the measurement errors introduced by error crosstalk, element fabrication error, laser beam drift, and nonparallelism of two measurement beam, a unified measurement model, which can improve the measurement accuracy, is deduced and established using the ray-tracing method. A numerical simulation using the optical design software Zemax is conducted, and the results verify the correctness of the model. Several experiments are performed to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed system and measurement model.

  2. Design of roundness measurement model with multi-systematic error for cylindrical components with large radius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Chuanzhi; Wang, Lei; Tan, Jiubin; Zhao, Bo; Tang, Yangchao

    2016-02-01

    The paper designs a roundness measurement model with multi-systematic error, which takes eccentricity, probe offset, radius of tip head of probe, and tilt error into account for roundness measurement of cylindrical components. The effects of the systematic errors and radius of components are analysed in the roundness measurement. The proposed method is built on the instrument with a high precision rotating spindle. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experiment with the standard cylindrical component, which is measured on a roundness measuring machine. Compared to the traditional limacon measurement model, the accuracy of roundness measurement can be increased by about 2.2 μm using the proposed roundness measurement model for the object with a large radius of around 37 mm. The proposed method can improve the accuracy of roundness measurement and can be used for error separation, calibration, and comparison, especially for cylindrical components with a large radius.

  3. Complete Systematic Error Model of SSR for Sensor Registration in ATC Surveillance Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarama, Ángel J; López-Araquistain, Jaime; Miguel, Gonzalo de; Besada, Juan A

    2017-09-21

    In this paper, a complete and rigorous mathematical model for secondary surveillance radar systematic errors (biases) is developed. The model takes into account the physical effects systematically affecting the measurement processes. The azimuth biases are calculated from the physical error of the antenna calibration and the errors of the angle determination dispositive. Distance bias is calculated from the delay of the signal produced by the refractivity index of the atmosphere, and from clock errors, while the altitude bias is calculated taking into account the atmosphere conditions (pressure and temperature). It will be shown, using simulated and real data, that adapting a classical bias estimation process to use the complete parametrized model results in improved accuracy in the bias estimation.

  4. Using SMAP to identify structural errors in hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crow, W. T.; Reichle, R. H.; Chen, F.; Xia, Y.; Liu, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Despite decades of effort, and the development of progressively more complex models, there continues to be underlying uncertainty regarding the representation of basic water and energy balance processes in land surface models. Soil moisture occupies a central conceptual position between atmosphere forcing of the land surface and resulting surface water fluxes. As such, direct observations of soil moisture are potentially of great value for identifying and correcting fundamental structural problems affecting these models. However, to date, this potential has not yet been realized using satellite-based retrieval products. Using soil moisture data sets produced by the NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive mission, this presentation will explore the use of the remotely-sensed soil moisture data products as a constraint to reject certain types of surface runoff parameterizations within a land surface model. Results will demonstrate that the precision of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone soil moisture product allows for the robust sampling of correlation statistics describing the true strength of the relationship between pre-storm soil moisture and subsequent storm-scale runoff efficiency (i.e., total storm flow divided by total rainfall both in units of depth). For a set of 16 basins located in the South-Central United States, we will use these sampled correlations to demonstrate that so-called "infiltration-excess" runoff parameterizations under predict the importance of pre-storm soil moisture for determining storm-scale runoff efficiency. To conclude, we will discuss prospects for leveraging this insight to improve short-term hydrologic forecasting and additional avenues for SMAP soil moisture products to provide process-level insight for hydrologic modelers.

  5. Improved modeling of multivariate measurement errors based on the Wishart distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentzell, Peter D; Cleary, Cody S; Kompany-Zareh, M

    2017-03-22

    The error covariance matrix (ECM) is an important tool for characterizing the errors from multivariate measurements, representing both the variance and covariance in the errors across multiple channels. Such information is useful in understanding and minimizing sources of experimental error and in the selection of optimal data analysis procedures. Experimental ECMs, normally obtained through replication, are inherently noisy, inconvenient to obtain, and offer limited interpretability. Significant advantages can be realized by building a model for the ECM based on established error types. Such models are less noisy, reduce the need for replication, mitigate mathematical complications such as matrix singularity, and provide greater insights. While the fitting of ECM models using least squares has been previously proposed, the present work establishes that fitting based on the Wishart distribution offers a much better approach. Simulation studies show that the Wishart method results in parameter estimates with a smaller variance and also facilitates the statistical testing of alternative models using a parameterized bootstrap method. The new approach is applied to fluorescence emission data to establish the acceptability of various models containing error terms related to offset, multiplicative offset, shot noise and uniform independent noise. The implications of the number of replicates, as well as single vs. multiple replicate sets are also described. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Discharge simulations performed with a hydrological model using bias corrected regional climate model input

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. van Pelt

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies have demonstrated that precipitation on Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes has increased in the last decades and that it is likely that this trend will continue. This will have an influence on discharge of the river Meuse. The use of bias correction methods is important when the effect of precipitation change on river discharge is studied. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of using two different bias correction methods on output from a Regional Climate Model (RCM simulation. In this study a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2 run is used, forced by ECHAM5/MPIOM under the condition of the SRES-A1B emission scenario, with a 25 km horizontal resolution. The RACMO2 runs contain a systematic precipitation bias on which two bias correction methods are applied. The first method corrects for the wet day fraction and wet day average (WD bias correction and the second method corrects for the mean and coefficient of variance (MV bias correction. The WD bias correction initially corrects well for the average, but it appears that too many successive precipitation days were removed with this correction. The second method performed less well on average bias correction, but the temporal precipitation pattern was better. Subsequently, the discharge was calculated by using RACMO2 output as forcing to the HBV-96 hydrological model. A large difference was found between the simulated discharge of the uncorrected RACMO2 run, the WD bias corrected run and the MV bias corrected run. These results show the importance of an appropriate bias correction.

  7. Identifiability and error minimization of receptor model parameters with PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delforge, J.; Syrota, A.; Mazoyer, B.M.

    1989-01-01

    The identifiability problem and the general framework for experimental design optimization are presented. The methodology is applied to the problem of the receptor-ligand model parameter estimation with dynamic positron emission tomography data. The first attempts to identify the model parameters from data obtained with a single tracer injection led to disappointing numerical results. The possibility of improving parameter estimation using a new experimental design combining an injection of the labelled ligand and an injection of the cold ligand (displacement experiment) has been investigated. However, this second protocol led to two very different numerical solutions and it was necessary to demonstrate which solution was biologically valid. This has been possible by using a third protocol including both a displacement and a co-injection experiment. (authors). 16 refs.; 14 figs

  8. A latent low-dimensional common input drives a pool of motor neurons: a probabilistic latent state-space model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeney, Daniel F; Meyer, François G; Noone, Nicholas; Enoka, Roger M

    2017-10-01

    Motor neurons appear to be activated with a common input signal that modulates the discharge activity of all neurons in the motor nucleus. It has proven difficult for neurophysiologists to quantify the variability in a common input signal, but characterization of such a signal may improve our understanding of how the activation signal varies across motor tasks. Contemporary methods of quantifying the common input to motor neurons rely on compiling discrete action potentials into continuous time series, assuming the motor pool acts as a linear filter, and requiring signals to be of sufficient duration for frequency analysis. We introduce a space-state model in which the discharge activity of motor neurons is modeled as inhomogeneous Poisson processes and propose a method to quantify an abstract latent trajectory that represents the common input received by motor neurons. The approach also approximates the variation in synaptic noise in the common input signal. The model is validated with four data sets: a simulation of 120 motor units, a pair of integrate-and-fire neurons with a Renshaw cell providing inhibitory feedback, the discharge activity of 10 integrate-and-fire neurons, and the discharge times of concurrently active motor units during an isometric voluntary contraction. The simulations revealed that a latent state-space model is able to quantify the trajectory and variability of the common input signal across all four conditions. When compared with the cumulative spike train method of characterizing common input, the state-space approach was more sensitive to the details of the common input current and was less influenced by the duration of the signal. The state-space approach appears to be capable of detecting rather modest changes in common input signals across conditions. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We propose a state-space model that explicitly delineates a common input signal sent to motor neurons and the physiological noise inherent in synaptic signal

  9. Large uncertainty in soil carbon modelling related to method of calculation of plant carbon input to agriculutral systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keel, S G; Leifeld, Jens; Mayer, Julius

    2017-01-01

    referred to as soil carbon inputs (C). The soil C inputs from plants are derived from measured agricultural yields using allometric equations. Here we compared the results of five previously published equations. Our goal was to test whether the choice of method is critical for modelling soil C and if so...... with the model C-TOOL showed that calculated SOC stocks were affected strongly by the choice of the allometric equation. With four equations, a decrease in SOC stocks was simulated, whereas with one equation there was no change. This considerable uncertainty in modelled soil C is attributable solely...... to the allometric equation used to estimate the soil C input. We identify the evaluation and selection of allometric equations and associated coefficients as critical steps when setting up a model-based soil C inventory for agricultural systems....

  10. Hydrological and sedimentological modeling of the Okavango Delta, Botswana, using remotely sensed input and calibration data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, C.; Kgotlhang, L.; Kinzelbach, W.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.

    2006-12-01

    medium-term. The Delta's size and limited accessibility make direct data acquisition on the ground difficult. Remote sensing methods are the most promising source of acquiring spatially distributed data for both, model input and calibration. Besides ground data, METEOSAT and NOAA data are used for precipitation and evapotranspiration inputs respectively. The topography is taken from a study from Gumbricht et al. (2004) where the SRTM shuttle mission data is refined using remotely sensed vegetation indexes. The aquifer thickness was determined with an aeromagnetic survey. For calibration, the simulated flooding patterns are compared to patterns derived from satellite imagery: recent ENVISAT ASAR and older NOAA AVHRR scenes. The final objective is to better understand the hydrological and hydraulic aspects of this complex ecosystem and eventually predict the consequences of human interventions. It will provide a tool for decision makers involved to assess the impact of possible upstream dams and water abstraction scenarios.

  11. A Sandwich-Type Standard Error Estimator of SEM Models with Multivariate Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangjian; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ong, Anthony D.

    2011-01-01

    Structural equation models are increasingly used as a modeling tool for multivariate time series data in the social and behavioral sciences. Standard error estimators of SEM models, originally developed for independent data, require modifications to accommodate the fact that time series data are inherently dependent. In this article, we extend a…

  12. Relative Error Model Reduction via Time-Weighted Balanced Stochastic Singular Perturbation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2012-01-01

    A new mixed method for relative error model reduction of linear time invariant (LTI) systems is proposed in this paper. This order reduction technique is mainly based upon time-weighted balanced stochastic model reduction method and singular perturbation model reduction technique. Compared...

  13. Development and estimation of a semi-compensatory model with flexible error structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Shiftan, Yoram; Bekhor, Shlomo

    -response model and the utility-based choice by alternatively (i) a nested-logit model and (ii) an error-component logit. In order to test the suggested methodology, the model was estimated for a sample of 1,893 ranked choices and respective threshold values from 631 students who participated in a web-based two...

  14. Smoke inputs to climate models: optical properties and height distribution for nuclear winter studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penner, J.E.; Haselman, L.C. Jr.

    1985-04-01

    Smoke from fires produced in the aftermath of a major nuclear exchange has been predicted to cause large decreases in land surface temperatures. The extent of the decrease and even the sign of the temperature change depend on the optical characteristics of the smoke and how it is distributed with altitude. The height distribution of smoke over a fire is determined by the amount of buoyant energy produced by the fire and the amount of energy released by the latent heat of condensation of water vapor. The optical properties of the smoke depend on the size distribution of smoke particles which changes due to coagulation within the lofted plume. We present calculations demonstrating these processes and estimate their importance for the smoke source term input for climate models. For high initial smoke densities and for absorbing smoke ( m = 1.75 - 0.3i), coagulation of smoke particles within the smoke plume is predicted to first increase, then decrease, the size-integrated extinction cross section. However, at the smoke densities predicted in our model (assuming a 3% emission rate for smoke) and for our assumed initial size distribution, the attachment rates for brownian and turbulent collision processes are not fast enough to alter the smoke size distribution enough to significantly change the integrated extinction cross section. Early-time coagulation is, however, fast enough to allow further coagulation, on longer time scales, to act to decrease the extinction cross section. On these longer time scales appropriate to climate models, coagulation can decrease the extinction cross section by almost a factor of two before the smoke becomes well mixed around the globe. This process has been neglected in past climate effect evaluations, but could have a significant effect, since the extinction cross section enters as an exponential factor in calculating the light attenuation due to smoke. 10 refs., 20 figs

  15. Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

    2017-12-01

    Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

  16. A Temperature Sensor Clustering Method for Thermal Error Modeling of Heavy Milling Machine Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengchun Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A clustering method is an effective way to select the proper temperature sensor location for thermal error modeling of machine tools. In this paper, a new temperature sensor clustering method is proposed. By analyzing the characteristics of the temperature of the sensors in a heavy floor-type milling machine tool, an indicator involving both the Euclidean distance and the correlation coefficient was proposed to reflect the differences between temperature sensors, and the indicator was expressed by a distance matrix to be used for hierarchical clustering. Then, the weight coefficient in the distance matrix and the number of the clusters (groups were optimized by a genetic algorithm (GA, and the fitness function of the GA was also rebuilt by establishing the thermal error model at one rotation speed, then deriving its accuracy at two different rotation speeds with a temperature disturbance. Thus, the parameters for clustering, as well as the final selection of the temperature sensors, were derived. Finally, the method proposed in this paper was verified on a machine tool. According to the selected temperature sensors, a thermal error model of the machine tool was established and used to predict the thermal error. The results indicate that the selected temperature sensors can accurately predict thermal error at different rotation speeds, and the proposed temperature sensor clustering method for sensor selection is expected to be used for the thermal error modeling for other machine tools.

  17. Wind Power Prediction Based on LS-SVM Model with Error Correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG, Y.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available As conventional energy sources are non-renewable, the world's major countries are investing heavily in renewable energy research. Wind power represents the development trend of future energy, but the intermittent and volatility of wind energy are the main reasons that leads to the poor accuracy of wind power prediction. However, by analyzing the error level at different time points, it can be found that the errors of adjacent time are often approximately the same, the least square support vector machine (LS-SVM model with error correction is used to predict the wind power in this paper. According to the simulation of wind power data of two wind farms, the proposed method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of wind power, and the error distribution is concentrated almost without deviation. The improved method proposed in this paper takes into account the error correction process of the model, which improved the prediction accuracy of the traditional model (RBF, Elman, LS-SVM. Compared with the single LS-SVM prediction model in this paper, the mean absolute error of the proposed method had decreased by 52 percent. The research work in this paper will be helpful to the reasonable arrangement of dispatching operation plan, the normal operation of the wind farm and the large-scale development as well as fully utilization of renewable energy resources.

  18. Measurement Rounding Errors in an Assessment Model of Project Led Engineering Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Moreira

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the rounding errors that occur in the assessment of an interdisciplinary Project-Led Education (PLE process implemented in the Integrated Master degree on Industrial Management and Engineering (IME at University of Minho. PLE is an innovative educational methodology which makes use of active learning, promoting higher levels of motivation and students’ autonomy. The assessment model is based on multiple evaluation components with different weights. Each component can be evaluated by several teachers involved in different Project Supporting Courses (PSC. This model can be affected by different types of errors, namely: (1 rounding errors, and (2 non-uniform criteria of rounding the grades. A rigorous analysis of the assessment model was made and the rounding errors involved on each project component were characterized and measured. This resulted in a global maximum error of 0.308 on the individual student project grade, in a 0 to 100 scale. This analysis intended to improve not only the reliability of the assessment results, but also teachers’ awareness of this problem. Recommendations are also made in order to improve the assessment model and reduce the rounding errors as much as possible.

  19. A Stable Clock Error Model Using Coupled First and Second Order Gauss-Markov Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Russell; Lee, Taesul

    2008-01-01

    Long data outages may occur in applications of global navigation satellite system technology to orbit determination for missions that spend significant fractions of their orbits above the navigation satellite constellation(s). Current clock error models based on the random walk idealization may not be suitable in these circumstances, since the covariance of the clock errors may become large enough to overflow flight computer arithmetic. A model that is stable, but which approximates the existing models over short time horizons is desirable. A coupled first- and second-order Gauss-Markov process is such a model.

  20. Model-based bootstrapping when correcting for measurement error with application to logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buonaccorsi, John P; Romeo, Giovanni; Thoresen, Magne

    2018-03-01

    When fitting regression models, measurement error in any of the predictors typically leads to biased coefficients and incorrect inferences. A plethora of methods have been proposed to correct for this. Obtaining standard errors and confidence intervals using the corrected estimators can be challenging and, in addition, there is concern about remaining bias in the corrected estimators. The bootstrap, which is one option to address these problems, has received limited attention in this context. It has usually been employed by simply resampling observations, which, while suitable in some situations, is not always formally justified. In addition, the simple bootstrap does not allow for estimating bias in non-linear models, including logistic regression. Model-based bootstrapping, which can potentially estimate bias in addition to being robust to the original sampling or whether the measurement error variance is constant or not, has received limited attention. However, it faces challenges that are not present in handling regression models with no measurement error. This article develops new methods for model-based bootstrapping when correcting for measurement error in logistic regression with replicate measures. The methodology is illustrated using two examples, and a series of simulations are carried out to assess and compare the simple and model-based bootstrap methods, as well as other standard methods. While not always perfect, the model-based approaches offer some distinct improvements over the other methods. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  1. Parametric modeling of DSC-MRI data with stochastic filtration and optimal input design versus non-parametric modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalicka, Renata; Pietrenko-Dabrowska, Anna

    2007-03-01

    In the paper MRI measurements are used for assessment of brain tissue perfusion and other features and functions of the brain (cerebral blood flow - CBF, cerebral blood volume - CBV, mean transit time - MTT). Perfusion is an important indicator of tissue viability and functioning as in pathological tissue blood flow, vascular and tissue structure are altered with respect to normal tissue. MRI enables diagnosing diseases at an early stage of their course. The parametric and non-parametric approaches to the identification of MRI models are presented and compared. The non-parametric modeling adopts gamma variate functions. The parametric three-compartmental catenary model, based on the general kinetic model, is also proposed. The parameters of the models are estimated on the basis of experimental data. The goodness of fit of the gamma variate and the three-compartmental models to the data and the accuracy of the parameter estimates are compared. Kalman filtering, smoothing the measurements, was adopted to improve the estimate accuracy of the parametric model. Parametric modeling gives a better fit and better parameter estimates than non-parametric and allows an insight into the functioning of the system. To improve the accuracy optimal experiment design related to the input signal was performed.

  2. Ecological input-output modeling for embodied resources and emissions in Chinese economy 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Z. M.; Chen, G. Q.; Zhou, J. B.; Jiang, M. M.; Chen, B.

    2010-07-01

    For the embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions in Chinese economy 2005, a biophysical balance modeling is carried out based on an extension of the economic input-output table into an ecological one integrating the economy with its various environmental driving forces. Included resource flows into the primary resource sectors and environmental emission flows from the primary emission sectors belong to seven categories as energy resources in terms of fossil fuels, hydropower and nuclear energy, biomass, and other sources; freshwater resources; greenhouse gas emissions in terms of CO2, CH4, and N2O; industrial wastes in terms of waste water, waste gas, and waste solid; exergy in terms of fossil fuel resources, biological resources, mineral resources, and environmental resources; solar emergy and cosmic emergy in terms of climate resources, soil, fossil fuels, and minerals. The resulted database for embodiment intensity and sectoral embodiment of natural resources and environmental emissions is of essential implications in context of systems ecology and ecological economics in general and of global climate change in particular.

  3. Alternatives to accuracy and bias metrics based on percentage errors for radiation belt modeling applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morley, Steven Karl [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-01

    This report reviews existing literature describing forecast accuracy metrics, concentrating on those based on relative errors and percentage errors. We then review how the most common of these metrics, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), has been applied in recent radiation belt modeling literature. Finally, we describe metrics based on the ratios of predicted to observed values (the accuracy ratio) that address the drawbacks inherent in using MAPE. Specifically, we define and recommend the median log accuracy ratio as a measure of bias and the median symmetric accuracy as a measure of accuracy.

  4. MODELING OF MANUFACTURING ERRORS FOR PIN-GEAR ELEMENTS OF PLANETARY GEARBOX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan M. Egorov

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Theoretical background for calculation of k-h-v type cycloid reducers was developed relatively long ago. However, recently the matters of cycloid reducer design again attracted heightened attention. The reason for that is that such devices are used in many complex engineering systems, particularly, in mechatronic and robotics systems. The development of advanced technological capabilities for manufacturing of such reducers today gives the possibility for implementation of essential features of such devices: high efficiency, high gear ratio, kinematic accuracy and smooth motion. The presence of an adequate mathematical model gives the possibility for adjusting kinematic accuracy of the reducer by rational selection of manufacturing tolerances for its parts. This makes it possible to automate the design process for cycloid reducers with account of various factors including technological ones. A mathematical model and mathematical technique have been developed giving the possibility for modeling the kinematic error of the reducer with account of multiple factors, including manufacturing errors. The errors are considered in the way convenient for prediction of kinematic accuracy early at the manufacturing stage according to the results of reducer parts measurement on coordinate measuring machines. During the modeling, the wheel manufacturing errors are determined by the eccentricity and radius deviation of the pin tooth centers circle, and the deviation between the pin tooth axes positions and the centers circle. The satellite manufacturing errors are determined by the satellite eccentricity deviation and the satellite rim eccentricity. Due to the collinearity, the pin tooth and pin tooth hole diameter errors and the satellite tooth profile errors for a designated contact point are integrated into one deviation. Software implementation of the model makes it possible to estimate the pointed errors influence on satellite rotation angle error and

  5. The Use of an Eight-Step Instructional Model to Train School Staff in Partner-Augmented Input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senner, Jill E.; Baud, Matthew R.

    2017-01-01

    An eight-step instruction model was used to train a self-contained classroom teacher, speech-language pathologist, and two instructional assistants in partner-augmented input, a modeling strategy for teaching augmentative and alternative communication use. With the exception of a 2-hr training session, instruction primarily was conducted during…

  6. Usefulness of non-linear input-output models for economic impact analyses in tourism and recreation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Peerlings, J.H.M.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    In tourism and recreation management it is still common practice to apply traditional input–output (IO) economic impact models, despite their well-known limitations. In this study the authors analyse the usefulness of applying a non-linear input–output (NLIO) model, in which price-induced input

  7. Error Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of a Five-Axis Machine Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenjie Tian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Geometric error modeling and its sensitivity analysis are carried out in this paper, which is helpful for precision design of machine tools. Screw theory and rigid body kinematics are used to establish the error model of an RRTTT-type five-axis machine tool, which enables the source errors affecting the compensable and uncompensable pose accuracy of the machine tool to be explicitly separated, thereby providing designers and/or field engineers with an informative guideline for the accuracy improvement by suitable measures, that is, component tolerancing in design, manufacturing, and assembly processes, and error compensation. The sensitivity analysis method is proposed, and the sensitivities of compensable and uncompensable pose accuracies are analyzed. The analysis results will be used for the precision design of the machine tool.

  8. Why Is Rainfall Error Analysis Requisite for Data Assimilation and Climate Modeling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.

    2004-01-01

    Given the large temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes, errors in rainfall observations are difficult to quantify yet crucial to making effective use of rainfall data for improving atmospheric analysis, weather forecasting, and climate modeling. We highlight the need for developing a quantitative understanding of systematic and random errors in precipitation observations by examining explicit examples of how each type of errors can affect forecasts and analyses in global data assimilation. We characterize the error information needed from the precipitation measurement community and how it may be used to improve data usage within the general framework of analysis techniques, as well as accuracy requirements from the perspective of climate modeling and global data assimilation.

  9. Robust Least-Squares Support Vector Machine With Minimization of Mean and Variance of Modeling Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinjiang; Liu, Wenbo; Zhou, Chuang; Huang, Minghui

    2017-06-13

    The least-squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is a popular data-driven modeling method and has been successfully applied to a wide range of applications. However, it has some disadvantages, including being ineffective at handling non-Gaussian noise as well as being sensitive to outliers. In this paper, a robust LS-SVM method is proposed and is shown to have more reliable performance when modeling a nonlinear system under conditions where Gaussian or non-Gaussian noise is present. The construction of a new objective function allows for a reduction of the mean of the modeling error as well as the minimization of its variance, and it does not constrain the mean of the modeling error to zero. This differs from the traditional LS-SVM, which uses a worst-case scenario approach in order to minimize the modeling error and constrains the mean of the modeling error to zero. In doing so, the proposed method takes the modeling error distribution information into consideration and is thus less conservative and more robust in regards to random noise. A solving method is then developed in order to determine the optimal parameters for the proposed robust LS-SVM. An additional analysis indicates that the proposed LS-SVM gives a smaller weight to a large-error training sample and a larger weight to a small-error training sample, and is thus more robust than the traditional LS-SVM. The effectiveness of the proposed robust LS-SVM is demonstrated using both artificial and real life cases.

  10. Urban pluvial flood prediction: a case study evaluating radar rainfall nowcasts and numerical weather prediction models as model inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-12-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events - especially in the future climate - it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically, both historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper, radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0-2 h leadtime, and numerical weather models with leadtimes up to 24 h are used as inputs to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on the small town of Lystrup in Denmark, which was flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution radar rainfall data, but rather limited forecast performance in predicting floods with leadtimes more than half an hour.

  11. Advanced error diagnostics of the CMAQ and Chimere modelling systems within the AQMEII3 model evaluation framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Solazzo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The work here complements the overview analysis of the modelling systems participating in the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3 by focusing on the performance for hourly surface ozone by two modelling systems, Chimere for Europe and CMAQ for North America. The evaluation strategy outlined in the course of the three phases of the AQMEII activity, aimed to build up a diagnostic methodology for model evaluation, is pursued here and novel diagnostic methods are proposed. In addition to evaluating the base case simulation in which all model components are configured in their standard mode, the analysis also makes use of sensitivity simulations in which the models have been applied by altering and/or zeroing lateral boundary conditions, emissions of anthropogenic precursors, and ozone dry deposition. To help understand of the causes of model deficiencies, the error components (bias, variance, and covariance of the base case and of the sensitivity runs are analysed in conjunction with timescale considerations and error modelling using the available error fields of temperature, wind speed, and NOx concentration. The resu