WorldWideScience

Sample records for model incorporating endogenous

  1. Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

    2009-01-01

    Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

  2. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic analysis of antipsychotics-induced extrapyramidal symptoms based on receptor occupancy theory incorporating endogenous dopamine release.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui-Sakata, Akiko; Ohtani, Hisakazu; Sawada, Yasufumi

    2005-06-01

    We aimed to analyze the risks of extrapyramidal symptoms (EPS) induced by typical and atypical antipsychotic drugs using a common pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model based on the receptor occupancy. We collected the data for EPS induced by atypical antipsychotics, risperidone, olanzapine and quetiapine, and a typical antipsychotic, haloperidol from literature and analyzed the following five indices of EPS, the ratio of patients obliged to take anticholinergic medication, the occurrence rates of plural extrapyramidal symptoms (more than one of tremor, dystonia, hypokinesia, akathisia, extrapyramidal syndrome, etc.), parkinsonism, akathisia, and extrapyramidal syndrome. We tested two models, i.e., a model incorporating endogenous dopamine release owing to 5-HT2A receptor inhibition and a model not considering the endogenous dopamine release, and used them to examine the relationship between the D2 receptor occupancy of endogenous dopamine and the extent of drug-induced EPS. The model incorporating endogenous dopamine release better described the relationship between the mean D2 receptor occupancy of endogenous dopamine and the extent of EPS than the other model, as assessed by the final sum of squares of residuals (final SS) and Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC). Furthermore, the former model could appropriately predict the risks of EPS induced by two other atypical antipsychotics, clozapine and ziprasidone, which were not incorporated into the model development. The developed model incorporating endogenous dopamine release owing to 5-HT2A receptor inhibition may be useful for the prediction of antipsychotics-induced EPS.

  3. An endogenous model of the credit network

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jianmin; Sui, Xin; Li, Shouwei

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, an endogenous credit network model of firm-bank agents is constructed. The model describes the endogenous formation of firm-firm, firm-bank and bank-bank credit relationships. By means of simulations, the model is capable of showing some obvious similarities with empirical evidence found by other scholars: the upper-tail of firm size distribution can be well fitted with a power-law; the bank size distribution can be lognormally distributed with a power-law tail; the bank in-degrees of the interbank credit network as well as the firm-bank credit network fall into two-power-law distributions.

  4. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-01-01

    The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies. Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  5. External Sector Rebalancing and Endogenous Trade Imbalance Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Whalley

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available I discuss the need for trade models to incorporate endogenous trade imbalances both to more adequately capture the reality of a global economy with large imbalances and pressures from the financial crisis for countries to reduce imbalances. Conventional general equilibrium trade models implicitly incorporate monetary neutrality and either have zero trade balance as a property of equilibrium, or have a fixed and exogenous trade imbalance. Models which are discussed here have a variety of forms. In one, central banks fix exchange rates and operate a non accommodative monetary policy and accumulate reserves. Changes in both trade and monetary policies change reserve accumulative and with the external sector imbalances. This is a reflection of China’s current policy regime. In another intertemporal preferences allow for simultaneous inter commodity and intertemporal trade across countries, and with changed intertemporal trade changed external sector imbalances within the period. These formulations are each applied to potential tax initiatives to aid in rebalancing.

  6. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous Preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Vipul Bhatt; Masao Ogaki; Yuichi Yaguchi

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  7. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous

    OpenAIRE

    Bhatt, Vipul; Ogaki, Masao; Yaguchi, Yuichi

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  8. An endogenous Taylor condition in an endogenous growth monetary policy model

    OpenAIRE

    Le, Mai Vo; Gillman, Max; Minford, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    The paper derives a Taylor condition as part of the agent's equilibrium behavior in an endogenous growth monetary economy. It shows the assumptions necessary to make it almost identical to the original Taylor rule, and that it can interchangably take a money supply growth rate form. From the money supply form, simple policy experiments are conducted. A full central bank policy model is derived that includes the Taylor condition along with equations comparable to the standard aggregate-demand/...

  9. Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse-Andersen, Peter Kjær

    2017-01-01

    R&D-based growth models are tested using US data for the period 1953-2014. A general growth model is developed which nests the model varieties of interest. The model implies a cointegrating relationship between multifactor productivity, research intensity, and employment. This relationship...... is estimated using cointegrated VAR models. The results provide evidence against the widely used fully endogenous variety and in favor of the semi-endogenous variety. Forecasts based on the empirical estimates suggest that the slowdown in US productivity growth will continue. Particularly, the annual long...

  10. Uncertainty and endogenous technical change in climate policy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, Erin; Shittu, Ekundayo

    2008-01-01

    Until recently endogenous technical change and uncertainty have been modeled separately in climate policy models. In this paper, we review the emerging literature that considers both these elements together. Taken as a whole the literature indicates that explicitly including uncertainty has important quantitative and qualitative impacts on optimal climate change technology policy. (author)

  11. A Health Production Model with Endogenous Retirement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galama, Titus; Kapteyn, Arie; Fonseca, Raquel; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

    2012-01-01

    We formulate a stylized structural model of health, wealth accumulation and retirement decisions building on the human capital framework of health and derive analytic solutions for the time paths of consumption, health, health investment, savings and retirement. We argue that the literature has been unnecessarily restrictive in assuming that health is always at the “optimal” health level. Exploring the properties of corner solutions we find that advances in population health decrease the retirement age, while at the same time individuals retire when their health has deteriorated. This potentially explains why retirees point to deteriorating health as an important reason for early retirement, while retirement ages have continued to fall in the developed world, despite continued improvements in population health and mortality. In our model, workers with higher human capital invest more in health and because they stay healthier retire later than those with lower human capital whose health deteriorates faster. PMID:22888062

  12. Trade and Variety in a Model of Endogenous Product Differentiation

    OpenAIRE

    Oliver Lorz; Matthias Wrede

    2009-01-01

    This paper sets up a model of endogenous product differentiation to analyze the variety effects of international trade. In our model multi-product firms decide not only about the number of varieties they supply but also about the degree of horizontal differentiation between these varieties. Firms can raise the degree of differentiation by investing variety-specific fixed costs. In this setting, we analyze how trade integration, i.e. an increase in market size, influences the number of firms i...

  13. Endogenous fishing mortalities: a state-space bioeconomic model

    OpenAIRE

    DA-ROCHA JOSÉ MARIA; GARCÍA-CUTRÍN JAVIER; GUTIÉRREZ MARÍA-JOSÉ; GAMITO JARDIM JOSÉ ERNESTO

    2017-01-01

    A methodology that endogenously determines catchability functions that link fishing mortality with contemporaneous stock abundance is presented. We consider a stochastic age-structured model for a fishery composed by a number of fishing units (fleets, vessels or métiers) that optimally select the level of fishing effort to be applied considering total mortalities as given. The introduction of a balance constrain which guarantees that total mortality is equal to the sum of individual fishing m...

  14. Government technology push in agribusiness: a model of endogenous growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Venegas Martínez

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a model of endogenous growth where the government acts as a promoting agent to boost technology in agribusiness. In the framework of a monetary economy, the optimal level of government spending to enhance technology in the agricultural industry is characterized. Moreover the impact of such a spending on economic welfare is assessed. Finally, a number of agro-oriented policies to increase growth in the sector are established.

  15. Tax Evasion and Economic Growth in an Endogenous Growth Model

    OpenAIRE

    加藤, 秀弥; KATO, Hideya

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents an endogenous growth model with tax evasion where government expenditures affect production. An individual evades a tax so as to maximize his or her utility, the tax authority controls the detection probability to maximize net tax revenue, and the government chooses the income tax rate to maximize individuals’ utility. The main conclusions are as follows. First, the optical income tax rate with tax evasion is higher than that without tax evasion. Second, the rise in a ...

  16. Endogenous opioid antagonism in physiological experimental pain models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werner, Mads U; Pereira, Manuel P; Andersen, Lars Peter H

    2015-01-01

    hyperalgesia models (6 studies), 'pain' models (25 studies), summation models (2 studies), nociceptive reflex models (3 studies) and miscellaneous models (2 studies). A consistent reversal of analgesia by a MOR-antagonist was demonstrated in 10 of the 25 ITP-studies, including stress-induced analgesia and r...... ratings, threshold assessments and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP), did not appear consistent in 28 out of 32 'pain' model studies. In conclusion, only in 2 experimental human pain models, i.e., stress-induced analgesia and rTMS, administration of MOR-antagonist demonstrated a consistent effect......Opioid antagonists are pharmacological tools applied as an indirect measure to detect activation of the endogenous opioid system (EOS) in experimental pain models. The objective of this systematic review was to examine the effect of mu-opioid-receptor (MOR) antagonists in placebo-controlled, double...

  17. Incorporating groundwater flow into the WEPP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Elliot; Erin Brooks; Tim Link; Sue Miller

    2010-01-01

    The water erosion prediction project (WEPP) model is a physically-based hydrology and erosion model. In recent years, the hydrology prediction within the model has been improved for forest watershed modeling by incorporating shallow lateral flow into watershed runoff prediction. This has greatly improved WEPP's hydrologic performance on small watersheds with...

  18. Differential model of macroeconomic growth with endogenic cyclicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail I. Geraskin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to elaborate a mathematical model of economic growth taking into account the cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with the model parameters based on the Russian economy statistics. Methods economic and mathematical modeling system analysis regression factor analysis econometric time series analysis. Results the article states that under unstable economic growth in Russia forecasting of strategic prospects of the Russian economy is one of the topical directions of scientific studies. Furthermore construction of predictive models should be based on multiple factors taking into account such basic concepts as the neoKeynesian HarrodDomar model Ramsey ndash Cass ndash Koopmans model S. V. Dubovskiyrsquos concept as well as the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow. They served as the basis for developing a multifactor differential economic growth model which is a modification of the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow taking into account the laborsaving and capitalsaving forms of scientifictechnical progress and the Keynesian concept of investment. The model parameters are determined based on the dynamics of actual GDP employment fixed assets and investments in fixed assets for 19652016 in Russia on the basis of official statistics. The generalized model showed the presence of longwave fluctuations that are not detected during the individual periods modeling. The cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with a period of 54 years was found which corresponds to the parameters of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev. Basing on the model the macroeconomic growth forecast was generated which shows that after 2020 the increase of scientifictechnical progress will be negative. Scientific novelty a model is proposed of the scientifictechnical progress indicator showing the growth rate of the capital productivity ratio to the saving rate a differential model of macroeconomic growth is obtained which endogenously takes cyclicity into account

  19. Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Ghil, Michael

    2008-01-01

    We investigate the macroeconomic response to natural disasters by using an endogenous business cycle (EnBC) model in which cyclical behavior arises from the investment-profit instability. Our model exhibits a larger response to natural disasters during expansions than during recessions. This apparently paradoxical result can be traced to the disasters amplifying pre-existing disequilibria during expansions, while the existence of unused resources during recessions damps the exogenous shocks. It thus appears that high-growth periods are also highly vulnerable to supply-side shocks. In our EnBC model, the average production loss due to a set of disasters distributed at random in time is highly sensitive to the dynamical characteristics of the impacted economy. Larger economic flexibility allows for a more efficient and rapid response to supply-side shocks and reduces production losses. On the other hand, too high a flexibility can lead to vulnerability phases that cause average production losses to soar. These results raise questions about the assessment of climate change damages or natural disaster losses that are based purely on long-term growth models. (author)

  20. Endogenous structural change and climate targets: modeling experiments with Imaclim-R

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crassous, R.; Hourcade, J.Ch.; Sassi, O.

    2006-01-01

    This paper envisages endogenous technical change as resulting from the interplay between the economic growth engine, consumption, technology and localization patterns. We perform numerical simulations with the recursive dynamic general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R to study how modeling induced technical change affects costs of CO 2 stabilization. IMACLIM-R incorporates innovative specifications about final consumption of transportation and energy to represent critical stylized facts such as rebound effects and demand induction by infrastructure and equipments. Doing so brings to light how induced technical change may not only lower stabilization costs thanks to pure technological progress, but also triggers induction of final demand - effects critical to both the level of the carbon tax and the costs of policy given a specific stabilization target. Finally, we study the sensitivity of total stabilization costs to various parameters including both technical assumptions as accelerated turnover of equipments and non-energy choices as alternative infrastructure policies. (authors)

  1. Endogenous price flexibility and optimal monetary policy

    OpenAIRE

    Ozge Senay; Alan Sutherland

    2014-01-01

    Much of the literature on optimal monetary policy uses models in which the degree of nominal price flexibility is exogenous. There are, however, good reasons to suppose that the degree of price flexibility adjusts endogenously to changes in monetary conditions. This article extends the standard new Keynesian model to incorporate an endogenous degree of price flexibility. The model shows that endogenizing the degree of price flexibility tends to shift optimal monetary policy towards complete i...

  2. Incorporating interfacial phenomena in solidification models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckermann, Christoph; Wang, Chao Yang

    1994-01-01

    A general methodology is available for the incorporation of microscopic interfacial phenomena in macroscopic solidification models that include diffusion and convection. The method is derived from a formal averaging procedure and a multiphase approach, and relies on the presence of interfacial integrals in the macroscopic transport equations. In a wider engineering context, these techniques are not new, but their application in the analysis and modeling of solidification processes has largely been overlooked. This article describes the techniques and demonstrates their utility in two examples in which microscopic interfacial phenomena are of great importance.

  3. Incorporating neurophysiological concepts in mathematical thermoregulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingma, Boris R. M.; Vosselman, M. J.; Frijns, A. J. H.; van Steenhoven, A. A.; van Marken Lichtenbelt, W. D.

    2014-01-01

    Skin blood flow (SBF) is a key player in human thermoregulation during mild thermal challenges. Various numerical models of SBF regulation exist. However, none explicitly incorporates the neurophysiology of thermal reception. This study tested a new SBF model that is in line with experimental data on thermal reception and the neurophysiological pathways involved in thermoregulatory SBF control. Additionally, a numerical thermoregulation model was used as a platform to test the function of the neurophysiological SBF model for skin temperature simulation. The prediction-error of the SBF-model was quantified by root-mean-squared-residual (RMSR) between simulations and experimental measurement data. Measurement data consisted of SBF (abdomen, forearm, hand), core and skin temperature recordings of young males during three transient thermal challenges (1 development and 2 validation). Additionally, ThermoSEM, a thermoregulation model, was used to simulate body temperatures using the new neurophysiological SBF-model. The RMSR between simulated and measured mean skin temperature was used to validate the model. The neurophysiological model predicted SBF with an accuracy of RMSR human thermoregulation models can be equipped with SBF control functions that are based on neurophysiology without loss of performance. The neurophysiological approach in modelling thermoregulation is favourable over engineering approaches because it is more in line with the underlying physiology.

  4. MERGE-ETL: An Optimisation Equilibrium Model with Two Different Endogeneous Technological Learning Formulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S.

    2002-07-01

    In MERGE-ETL, endogenous technological progress is applied to eight energy technologies: six power plants (integrated coal gasification with combined cycle, gas turbine with combined cycle, gas fuel cell, new nuclear designs, wind turbine and solar photovoltaic) and two plants producing hydrogen (from biomass and solar photovoltaic). Furthermore, compared to the original MERGE model, we have introduced two new power plants (using coal and gas) with CO{sub 2} capture and disposal into depleted oil and gas reservoirs. The difficulty with incorporating endogenous technological progress in MERGE comes from the resulting formulation of the MERGE-ETL model. Indeed, technological learning is related to increasing returns to adoption, and the mathematical formulation of MERGE-ETL corresponds then to a (non-linear and) non-convex optimisation problem. To solve MERGE-ETL, we have devised a three-step heuristic approach, where we search for the global optimum in an iterative way. We use in particular for this a linearisation, following mixed integer programming techniques, of the bottom-up part of MERGE-ETL. To study the impacts of modelling endogenous technological change in MERGE, we have considered several scenarios related to technological learning and carbon control. The latter corresponds to a 'soft landing' of world energy related CO{sub 2} emissions to a level of 10 Gt C by 2050, and takes into account the recent (2001) Marrakech Agreements for CO{sub 2} emission limits by 2010. Notice that our baseline scenario (without emission control and endogenous technological change) is consistent, in particular in terms of population and CO{sub 2} emissions, with the IPCC B2 scenario. Our numerical application with MERGE-ETL shows that technological learning yields an increase of primary energy use and of electricity generation. Indeed, energy production, and in particular electricity generation, become less expensive over-time. Energy (electricity, but also non

  5. Why Don’t People Pay Attention?: Endogenous Sticky Information in a DSGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Dräger, Lena

    2010-01-01

    Building on the models of sticky information, we endogenize the probability of obtaining new information by introducing a switching mechanism allowing agents to choose between costly rational expectations and costless expectations under sticky information. Thereby, the share of agents with rational expectations becomes endogenous and timevarying. While central results of sticky information models are retained, we find that the share of rational expectations is positively correlated with the v...

  6. MODELS OF AN-TYPE INNOVATIVE ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND THEIR SUBSTANTIATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Askar A. Akaev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an analysis of some classical models of economic growth of exogenous and endogenous type, based on the calculation of the motion of physical capital. It is shown that the simplest AN-type model, based on the calculation of population dynamics and endogenous technological progress, is more adequate for the description of the current economic development and provides a more accurate long-term forecast of economic dynamics.

  7. Incorporating damage mechanics into explosion simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sammis, C.G.

    1993-01-01

    The source region of an underground explosion is commonly modeled as a nested series of shells. In the innermost open-quotes hydrodynamic regimeclose quotes pressures and temperatures are sufficiently high that the rock deforms as a fluid and may be described using a PVT equation of state. Just beyond the hydrodynamic regime, is the open-quotes non-linear regimeclose quotes in which the rock has shear strength but the deformation is nonlinear. This regime extends out to the open-quotes elastic radiusclose quotes beyond which the deformation is linear. In this paper, we develop a model for the non-linear regime in crystalline source rock where the nonlinearity is mostly due to fractures. We divide the non-linear regime into a open-quotes damage regimeclose quotes in which the stresses are sufficiently high to nucleate new fractures from preexisting ones and a open-quotes crack-slidingclose quotes regime where motion on preexisting cracks produces amplitude dependent attenuation and other non-linear effects, but no new cracks are nucleated. The boundary between these two regimes is called the open-quotes damage radius.close quotes The micromechanical damage mechanics recently developed by Ashby and Sammis (1990) is used to write an analytic expression for the damage radius in terms of the initial fracture spectrum of the source rock, and to develop an algorithm which may be used to incorporate damage mechanics into computer source models for the damage regime. Effects of water saturation and loading rate are also discussed

  8. Incorporating direct marketing activity into latent attrition models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweidel, David A.; Knox, George

    2013-01-01

    When defection is unobserved, latent attrition models provide useful insights about customer behavior and accurate forecasts of customer value. Yet extant models ignore direct marketing efforts. Response models incorporate the effects of direct marketing, but because they ignore latent attrition,

  9. Endogenous glucose production from infancy to adulthood: a non-linear regression model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huidekoper, Hidde H.; Ackermans, Mariëtte T.; Ruiter, An F. C.; Sauerwein, Hans P.; Wijburg, Frits A.

    2014-01-01

    To construct a regression model for endogenous glucose production (EGP) as a function of age, and compare this with glucose supplementation using commonly used dextrose-based saline solutions at fluid maintenance rate in children. A model was constructed based on EGP data, as quantified by

  10. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  11. Specific and General Human Capital in an Endogenous Growth Model

    OpenAIRE

    Evangelia Vourvachaki; Vahagn Jerbashian; : Sergey Slobodyan

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we define specific (general) human capital in terms of the occupations whose use is spread in a limited (wide) set of industries. We analyze the growth impact of an economy's composition of specific and general human capital, in a model where education and research and development are costly and complementary activities. The model suggests that a declining share of specific human capital, as observed in the Czech Republic, can be associated with a lower rate of long-term grow...

  12. Tax Evasion in a Model of Endogenous Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Been-Lon Chen

    2003-01-01

    This paper integrates tax evasion into a standard AK growth model with public capital. In the model, the government optimizes the tax rate, while individuals optimize tax evasion. It studies tax rate, tax evasion and economic growth, and compares them with otherwise identical economies except those without tax evasion. It inquires into the effects of three government policies on tax rate, tax evasion, and economic growth. It finds that an increase in both unit cost of tax evasion and punishme...

  13. Endogenous Crisis Waves: Stochastic Model with Synchronized Collective Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gualdi, Stanislao; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Cencetti, Giulia; Tarzia, Marco; Zamponi, Francesco

    2015-02-01

    We propose a simple framework to understand commonly observed crisis waves in macroeconomic agent-based models, which is also relevant to a variety of other physical or biological situations where synchronization occurs. We compute exactly the phase diagram of the model and the location of the synchronization transition in parameter space. Many modifications and extensions can be studied, confirming that the synchronization transition is extremely robust against various sources of noise or imperfections.

  14. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, Christopher M; Bishop, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market

  15. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M Wray

    Full Text Available Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space, and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space, numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock

  16. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents’ accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the

  17. Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-07

    The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.

  18. Externalities in a life cycle model with endogenous survival☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Michael; Wrzaczek, Stefan; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav

    2011-01-01

    We study socially vs individually optimal life cycle allocations of consumption and health, when individual health care curbs own mortality but also has a spillover effect on other persons’ survival. Such spillovers arise, for instance, when health care activity at aggregate level triggers improvements in treatment through learning-by-doing (positive externality) or a deterioration in the quality of care through congestion (negative externality). We combine an age-structured optimal control model at population level with a conventional life cycle model to derive the social and private value of life. We then examine how individual incentives deviate from social incentives and how they can be aligned by way of a transfer scheme. The age-patterns of socially and individually optimal health expenditures and the transfer rate are derived. Numerical analysis illustrates the working of our model. PMID:28298810

  19. Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ziesemer, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Endogenous growth theory has produced formulas for steady-state growth rates of income per capita which are linear in the growth rate of the population. Depending on the details of the models, slopes and intercepts are positive, zero or negative. Empirical tests have taken over the assumption of

  20. Evaluating the performance of simple estimators for probit models with two dummy endogenous regressors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Nielsen, Jacob Arendt

    2013-01-01

    This study considers the small sample performance of approximate but simple two-stage estimators for probit models with two endogenous binary covariates. Monte Carlo simulations showthat all the considered estimators, including the simulated maximum-likelihood (SML) estimation, of the trivariate ...

  1. Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models with endogenous regressors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boldea, O.; Hall, A.R.; Han, S.

    2012-01-01

    This paper considers the linear model with endogenous regressors and multiple changes in the parameters at unknown times. It is shown that minimization of a Generalized Method of Moments criterion yields inconsistent estimators of the break fractions, but minimization of the Two Stage Least Squares

  2. The endogenous grid method for discrete-continuous dynamic choice models with (or without) taste shocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iskhakov, Fedor; Jørgensen, Thomas H.; Rust, John

    2017-01-01

    We present a fast and accurate computational method for solving and estimating a class of dynamic programming models with discrete and continuous choice variables. The solution method we develop for structural estimation extends the endogenous grid-point method (EGM) to discrete-continuous (DC) p...

  3. Productivity and Unemployment in a Two-country Model with Endogenous Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schaik, A.B.T.M.; de Groot, H.L.F.

    1997-01-01

    Relative to the United States, most European countries have high rates of unemployment and low levels of productivity in manufacturing. To relate these issues, we develop a leader-follower model with endogenous growth and dual labour markets, stressing the role of high-tech and high-wage sectors in

  4. A competitive integration model of exogenous and endogenous eye movements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meeter, M.; van der Stigchel, S.; Theeuwes, J.

    2010-01-01

    We present a model of the eye movement system in which the programming of an eye movement is the result of the competitive integration of information in the superior colliculi (SC). This brain area receives input from occipital cortex, the frontal eye fields, and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex,

  5. Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

    2006-01-01

    Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

  6. Optimal Operational Monetary Policy Rules in an Endogenous Growth Model: a calibrated analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Arato, Hiroki

    2009-01-01

    This paper constructs an endogenous growth New Keynesian model and considers growth and welfare effect of Taylor-type (operational) monetary policy rules. The Ramsey equilibrium and optimal operational monetary policy rule is also computed. In the calibrated model, the Ramseyoptimal volatility of inflation rate is smaller than that in standard exogenous growth New Keynesian model with physical capital accumulation. Optimal operational monetary policy rule makes nominal interest rate respond s...

  7. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-01-01

    This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic me...

  8. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  9. Self-similar measures in multi-sector endogenous growth models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Torre, Davide; Marsiglio, Simone; Mendivil, Franklin; Privileggi, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    We analyze two types of stochastic discrete time multi-sector endogenous growth models, namely a basic Uzawa–Lucas (1965, 1988) model and an extended three-sector version as in La Torre and Marsiglio (2010). As in the case of sustained growth the optimal dynamics of the state variables are not stationary, we focus on the dynamics of the capital ratio variables, and we show that, through appropriate log-transformations, they can be converted into affine iterated function systems converging to an invariant distribution supported on some (possibly fractal) compact set. This proves that also the steady state of endogenous growth models—i.e., the stochastic balanced growth path equilibrium—might have a fractal nature. We also provide some sufficient conditions under which the associated self-similar measures turn out to be either singular or absolutely continuous (for the three-sector model we only consider the singularity).

  10. Endogenous Business Cycle Dynamics within Metzlers Inventory Model: Adding an Inventory Floor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sushko, Irina; Wegener, Michael; Westerhoff, Frank; Zaklan, Georg

    2009-04-01

    Metzlers inventory model may produce dampened fluctuations in economic activity, thus contributing to our understanding of business cycle dynamics. For some parameter combinations, however, the model generates oscillations with increasing amplitude, implying that the inventory stock of firms eventually turns negative. Taking this observation into account, we reformulate Metzlers model by simply putting a floor to the inventory level. Within the new piecewise linear model, endogenous business cycle dynamics may now be triggered via a center bifurcation, i.e. for certain parameter combinations production changes are (quasi-)periodic.

  11. Dual Roles of Endogenous Platelet-activating Factor Acetylhydrolase in a Murine Model of Necrotizing Enterocolitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jing; Pierce, Marissa; Franklin, Andrew; Jilling, Tamas; Stafforini, Diana M.; Caplan, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Human preterm infants with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) have increased circulating and luminal levels of platelet-activating factor (PAF) and decreased serum PAF-acetylhydrolase (PAF-AH), the enzyme that inactivates PAF. Formula supplemented with recombinant PAF-AH decreases NEC in a neonatal rat model. We hypothesized that endogenous PAF-AH contributes to neonatal intestinal homeostasis, and therefore developed PAF-AH−/− mice using standard approaches to study the role of this enzyme in the neonatal NEC model. Following exposure to a well-established NEC model, intestinal tissues were evaluated for histology, pro-inflammatory cytokine mRNA synthesis, and death using standard techniques. We found that mortality rates were significantly lower in PAF-AH−/− pups compared to wild-type controls before 24 hours of life but surviving PAF-AH−/− animals were more susceptible to NEC development compared to wild-type controls. Increased NEC incidence was associated with prominent inflammation characterized by elevated intestinal mRNA expression of sPLA2, iNOS and CXCL1. In conclusion, the data support a protective role for endogenous PAF-AH in the development of NEC, and since preterm neonates have endogenous PAF-AH deficiency, this may place them at increased risk for disease. PMID:20531249

  12. True dose from incorporated activities. Models for internal dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breustedt, B.; Eschner, W.; Nosske, D.

    2012-01-01

    The assessment of doses after incorporation of radionuclides cannot use direct measurements of the doses, as for example dosimetry in external radiation fields. The only observables are activities in the body or in excretions. Models are used to calculate the doses based on the measured activities. The incorporated activities and the resulting doses can vary by more than seven orders of magnitude between occupational and medical exposures. Nevertheless the models and calculations applied in both cases are similar. Since the models for the different applications have been developed independently by ICRP and MIRD different terminologies have been used. A unified terminology is being developed. (orig.)

  13. Endogene CGRP

    OpenAIRE

    Höfer, Martina

    2010-01-01

    Hintergrund und Ziele Die vorliegende tierexperimentelle Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, welche Rolle endogenes Calcitonin-gene related peptide (CGRP) in der Niere spielt. Hierbei untersuchten wir die renale CGRP Freisetzung aus renalen Afferenzen in vitro anhand von gesunden Tieren und einem pathologischen Modell der Glomerulonephritis. Man weiß bereits, dass sowohl sympathische als auch primär sensorische Neuronen die Entzündung und die Immunantwort in der Peripherie regulieren (68)....

  14. Two-stage residual inclusion estimation: addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terza, Joseph V; Basu, Anirban; Rathouz, Paul J

    2008-05-01

    The paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research-two-stage predictor substitution (2SPS) and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI). 2SPS is the rote extension (to nonlinear models) of the popular linear two-stage least squares estimator. The 2SRI estimator is similar except that in the second-stage regression, the endogenous variables are not replaced by first-stage predictors. Instead, first-stage residuals are included as additional regressors. In a generic parametric framework, we show that 2SRI is consistent and 2SPS is not. Results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2SPS and favor 2SRI. Our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2SPS in the recent literature. This study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work.

  15. Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models with endogenous regressors☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Alastair R.; Han, Sanggohn; Boldea, Otilia

    2012-01-01

    This paper considers the linear model with endogenous regressors and multiple changes in the parameters at unknown times. It is shown that minimization of a Generalized Method of Moments criterion yields inconsistent estimators of the break fractions, but minimization of the Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) criterion yields consistent estimators of these parameters. We develop a methodology for estimation and inference of the parameters of the model based on 2SLS. The analysis covers the cases where the reduced form is either stable or unstable. The methodology is illustrated via an application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the US. PMID:23805021

  16. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  17. "Violent Intent Modeling: Incorporating Cultural Knowledge into the Analytical Process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Nibbs, Faith G.

    2007-08-24

    While culture has a significant effect on the appropriate interpretation of textual data, the incorporation of cultural considerations into data transformations has not been systematic. Recognizing that the successful prevention of terrorist activities could hinge on the knowledge of the subcultures, Anthropologist and DHS intern Faith Nibbs has been addressing the need to incorporate cultural knowledge into the analytical process. In this Brown Bag she will present how cultural ideology is being used to understand how the rhetoric of group leaders influences the likelihood of their constituents to engage in violent or radicalized behavior, and how violent intent modeling can benefit from understanding that process.

  18. Computational Evaluation of the Strict Master and Random Template Models of Endogenous Retrovirus Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nascimento, Fabrícia F.; Rodrigo, Allen G.

    2016-01-01

    Transposable elements (TEs) are DNA sequences that are able to replicate and move within and between host genomes. Their mechanism of replication is also shared with endogenous retroviruses (ERVs), which are also a type of TE that represent an ancient retroviral infection within animal genomes. Two models have been proposed to explain TE proliferation in host genomes: the strict master model (SMM), and the random template (or transposon) model (TM). In SMM only a single copy of a given TE lineage is able to replicate, and all other genomic copies of TEs are derived from that master copy. In TM, any element of a given family is able to replicate in the host genome. In this paper, we simulated ERV phylogenetic trees under variations of SMM and TM. To test whether current phylogenetic programs can recover the simulated ERV phylogenies, DNA sequence alignments were simulated and maximum likelihood trees were reconstructed and compared to the simulated phylogenies. Results indicate that visual inspection of phylogenetic trees alone can be misleading. However, if a set of statistical summaries is calculated, we are able to distinguish between models with high accuracy by using a data mining algorithm that we introduce here. We also demonstrate the use of our data mining algorithm with empirical data for the porcine endogenous retrovirus (PERV), an ERV that is able to replicate in human and pig cells in vitro. PMID:27649303

  19. Natural Disasters in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Masako Ikefuji; Ryo Horii

    2006-01-01

    Using an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation, this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth when the use of a polluting input (e.g., fossil fuels) intensifies the risk of capital destruction through natural disasters. We find that growth is sustainable only if the tax rate on the polluting input increases over time. The long-term rate of economic growth follows an inverted V-shaped curve relative to the growth rate of the environmental tax, and it...

  20. A MERGE model with endogenous technological change and the cost of carbon stabilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kypreos, Socrates

    2007-01-01

    Two stylized backstop systems with endogenous technological learning (ETL) are introduced in the 'model for evaluating regional and global effects' (MERGE): one for the electric and the other for the non-electric markets. Then the model is applied to analyze the impacts of ETL on carbon-mitigation policy, contrasting the resulting impacts with the situation without ETL. We model research and development (R and D) spending and learning subsidies for the demonstration and deployment stage as control variables, and we investigate the ability of this extra spending to create path-dependent experience and knowledge to aid in the implementation of carbon-free technologies. Based on model estimations and sensitivity analyses, we conclude that increased commitments for the development of new technologies to advance along their learning curves has a potential for substantial reductions in the cost of mitigating climate change and thereby helping to reach safe concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere

  1. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  2. Detection of endogenous lithium in neuropsychiatric disorders--a model for biological transmutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurup, Ravi Kumar; Kurup, Parameswara Achutha

    2002-01-01

    The human hypothalamus produces an endogenous membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase inhibitor, digoxin. A digoxin induced model of cellular/neuronal quantal state and perception has been described by the authors. Biological transmutation has been described in microbial systems in the quantal state. The study focuses on the plasma levels of digoxin, RBC membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase activity, plasma levels of magnesium and lithium in neuropsychiatric and systemic disorders. Inhibition of RBC membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase activity was observed in most cases along with an increase in the levels of serum digoxin and lithium and a decrease in the level of serum Mg(++). The generation of endogenous lithium would obviously occur due to biological transmutation from magnesium. Digoxin and lithium together can produce added membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase inhibition. The role of membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase inhibition in the pathogenesis of neuropsychiatric and systemic disorders is discussed. The inhibition of membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase can contribute to an increase in intracellular calcium and a decrease in magnesium, which can result in a defective neurotransmitter transport mechanism, mitochondrial dysfunction and apoptosis, defective golgi body function and protein processing dysfunction, immune dysfunction and oncogenesis. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Endogenous retroviruses of sheep: a model system for understanding physiological adaptation to an evolving ruminant genome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Thomas E; Palmarini, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    Endogenous retroviruses (ERVs) are present in the genome of all vertebrates and are remnants of ancient exogenous retroviral infections of the host germline transmitted vertically from generation to generation. Sheep betaretroviruses offer a unique model system to study the complex interaction between retroviruses and their host. The sheep genome contains 27 endogenous betaretroviruses (enJSRVs) related to the exogenous and pathogenic Jaagsiekte sheep retrovirus (JSRV), the causative agent of a transmissible lung cancer in sheep. The enJSRVs can protect their host against JSRV infection by blocking early and late steps of the JSRV replication cycle. In the female reproductive tract, enJSRVs are specifically expressed in the uterine luminal and glandular epithelia as well as in the conceptus (embryo and associated extraembryonic membranes) trophectoderm and in utero loss-of-function experiments found the enJSRVs envelope (env) to be essential for conceptus elongation and trophectoderm growth and development. Collectively, available evidence in sheep and other mammals indicate that ERVs coevolved with their hosts for millions of years and were positively selected for biological roles in genome plasticity and evolution, protection of the host against infection of related pathogenic and exogenous retroviruses, and placental development.

  4. Methods improvements incorporated into the SAPHIRE ASP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D.; Smith, C.L.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methodology, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3) enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements

  5. Methods improvements incorporated into the SAPHIRE ASP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methods, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3) enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements

  6. An endogenous growth model with embodied energy-saving technical change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Zon, A.; Yetkiner, I. H.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we extend the Romer [Journal of Political Economy 98 (Part 2) (1990) S271] model in two ways. First we include energy consumption of intermediates. Second, intermediates become heterogeneous due to endogenous energy-saving technical change. We show that the resulting model can still generate steady state growth, but the growth rate depends negatively on the growth of real energy prices. The reason is that real energy price rises will lower the profitability of using new intermediate goods, and hence, the profitability of doing research, and therefore have a negative impact on growth. We also show that the introduction of an energy tax that is recycled in the form of an R and D subsidy may increase growth. We conclude that in order to have energy efficiency growth and output growth under rising real energy prices, a combination of R and D and energy policy is called for

  7. FPL-PELPS : a price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling, supplement to PELPS III, version 1.1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia K. Lebow; Henry Spelter; Peter J. Ince

    2003-01-01

    This report provides documentation and user information for FPL-PELPS, a personal computer price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling. Originally developed to model the North American pulp and paper industry, FPL-PELPS follows its predecessors in allowing the modeling of any appropriate sector to predict consumption, production and capacity by...

  8. Enhancements of Endogenous Technology Learning in the Western European MARKAL model. Contributions to the EU SAPIENT project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Feber, M.A.P.C.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Seebregts, A.J.; Smekens, K.E.L.

    2003-04-01

    The primary topic of the SAPIENT project and its predecessor TEEM has been the issue of incorporating technology learning endogenously in energy models and trying to determine the impact of public R and D on this learning process. ECN has incorporated the learning mechanism into the MARKAL model using an extended database for the Western Europe energy system. By using advanced modelling techniques (Mixed Integer Programming) and the concepts of key components and technology clusters more than 60 technologies in the power sector have been endowed with learning characteristics. By this approach solving times could be kept within a reasonable length, i.e. less than 20 minutes per run. An important insight gained from model runs with many learning technologies, including conventional technologies, is that new technologies aiming to 'beat' conventional ones are aiming at a 'moving target'. Also conventional technologies can learn, and this aspect makes it much more difficult for new sustainable technologies to penetrate the market in the model. By using a Monte Carlo approach uncertainties in important learning parameters could be analysed. It appeared for instance that the main factor that determines the uncertainty on floor costs for photovoltaic (PV) energy production is the uncertainty in the PV progress ratio. One of the main targets of the SAPIENT project was to find ways to model the effect of R and D on technology learning. ECN has explored an approach to capture this effect by assuming a relationship between the R and D-intensity of a technology and its progress ratio. Following this approach it was found that uncertainties in the overall progress ratio are often higher than the effect additional R and D can have on a certain technology. Also, model outcomes depended rather on the carbon prices used in the scenarios than on the enhancement of learning by R and D. This suggests that a stimulus for sustainable technologies cannot be reached by R and D

  9. Computational and Statistical Analyses of Insertional Polymorphic Endogenous Retroviruses in a Non-Model Organism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Bao

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Endogenous retroviruses (ERVs are a class of transposable elements found in all vertebrate genomes that contribute substantially to genomic functional and structural diversity. A host species acquires an ERV when an exogenous retrovirus infects a germ cell of an individual and becomes part of the genome inherited by viable progeny. ERVs that colonized ancestral lineages are fixed in contemporary species. However, in some extant species, ERV colonization is ongoing, which results in variation in ERV frequency in the population. To study the consequences of ERV colonization of a host genome, methods are needed to assign each ERV to a location in a species’ genome and determine which individuals have acquired each ERV by descent. Because well annotated reference genomes are not widely available for all species, de novo clustering approaches provide an alternative to reference mapping that are insensitive to differences between query and reference and that are amenable to mobile element studies in both model and non-model organisms. However, there is substantial uncertainty in both identifying ERV genomic position and assigning each unique ERV integration site to individuals in a population. We present an analysis suitable for detecting ERV integration sites in species without the need for a reference genome. Our approach is based on improved de novo clustering methods and statistical models that take the uncertainty of assignment into account and yield a probability matrix of shared ERV integration sites among individuals. We demonstrate that polymorphic integrations of a recently identified endogenous retrovirus in deer reflect contemporary relationships among individuals and populations.

  10. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic mechanisms for population changes in the Barro-Becker fertility choice model and the Haavelmo population model are integrated to model the population change. This study also takes account of discrimination against woman in the labor market. We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework by applying Zhang’s utility function. The model properties are studied by simulation. We find equilibrium points and illustrate motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the discrimination against woman, the propensity to save, woman’s propensity to pursue leisure activities, the propensity to have children, woman’s human capital and man’s emotional involvement in children caring.

  11. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  12. A Discrete Heterogeneous-Group Economic Growth Model with Endogenous Leisure Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a one-sector multigroup growth model with endogenous labor supply in discrete time. Proposing an alternative approach to behavior of households, we examine the dynamics of wealth and income distribution in a competitive economy with capital accumulation as the main engine of economic growth. We show how human capital levels, preferences, and labor force of heterogeneous households determine the national economic growth, wealth, and income distribution and time allocation of the groups. By simulation we demonstrate, for instance, that in the three-group economy when the rich group's human capital is improved, all the groups will economically benefit, and the leisure times of all the groups are reduced but when any other group's human capital is improved, the group will economically benefit, the other two groups economically lose, and the leisure times of all the groups are increased.

  13. Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in an endogenous growth model with financial intermediaries

    OpenAIRE

    Espinosa, Marco A.; Yip, Chong K.

    1995-01-01

    We review some inflationary and growth claims surrounding fiscal and monetary policy interactions. While financial intermediation has long been acknowledged as a key mechanism in the transmission of these interactions, only recently have economists incorporated the explicit modeling of such intermediaries in their analyses. Here we model financial intermediaries explicitly. We find that the relation between growth and inflation depends crucially on the agents' degree of relative risk aversion...

  14. Endogenous Prospect Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ulrich; Zank, Horst

    2010-01-01

    In previous models of (cumulative) prospect theory reference-dependence of preferences is imposed beforehand and the location of the reference point is exogenously determined. This paper provides an axiomatization of a new specification of cumulative prospect theory, termed endogenous prospect theory, where reference-dependence is derived from preference conditions and a unique reference point arises endogenously.

  15. A mathematical model for incorporating biofeedback into human postural control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ersal Tulga

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biofeedback of body motion can serve as a balance aid and rehabilitation tool. To date, mathematical models considering the integration of biofeedback into postural control have represented this integration as a sensory addition and limited their application to a single degree-of-freedom representation of the body. This study has two objectives: 1 to develop a scalable method for incorporating biofeedback into postural control that is independent of the model’s degrees of freedom, how it handles sensory integration, and the modeling of its postural controller; and 2 to validate this new model using multidirectional perturbation experimental results. Methods Biofeedback was modeled as an additional torque to the postural controller torque. For validation, this biofeedback modeling approach was applied to a vibrotactile biofeedback device and incorporated into a two-link multibody model with full-state-feedback control that represents the dynamics of bipedal stance. Average response trajectories of body sway and center of pressure (COP to multidirectional surface perturbations of subjects with vestibular deficits were used for model parameterization and validation in multiple perturbation directions and for multiple display resolutions. The quality of fit was quantified using average error and cross-correlation values. Results The mean of the average errors across all tactor configurations and perturbations was 0.24° for body sway and 0.39 cm for COP. The mean of the cross-correlation value was 0.97 for both body sway and COP. Conclusions The biofeedback model developed in this study is capable of capturing experimental response trajectory shapes with low average errors and high cross-correlation values in both the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions for all perturbation directions and spatial resolution display configurations considered. The results validate that biofeedback can be modeled as an additional

  16. A mathematical model for incorporating biofeedback into human postural control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Biofeedback of body motion can serve as a balance aid and rehabilitation tool. To date, mathematical models considering the integration of biofeedback into postural control have represented this integration as a sensory addition and limited their application to a single degree-of-freedom representation of the body. This study has two objectives: 1) to develop a scalable method for incorporating biofeedback into postural control that is independent of the model’s degrees of freedom, how it handles sensory integration, and the modeling of its postural controller; and 2) to validate this new model using multidirectional perturbation experimental results. Methods Biofeedback was modeled as an additional torque to the postural controller torque. For validation, this biofeedback modeling approach was applied to a vibrotactile biofeedback device and incorporated into a two-link multibody model with full-state-feedback control that represents the dynamics of bipedal stance. Average response trajectories of body sway and center of pressure (COP) to multidirectional surface perturbations of subjects with vestibular deficits were used for model parameterization and validation in multiple perturbation directions and for multiple display resolutions. The quality of fit was quantified using average error and cross-correlation values. Results The mean of the average errors across all tactor configurations and perturbations was 0.24° for body sway and 0.39 cm for COP. The mean of the cross-correlation value was 0.97 for both body sway and COP. Conclusions The biofeedback model developed in this study is capable of capturing experimental response trajectory shapes with low average errors and high cross-correlation values in both the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions for all perturbation directions and spatial resolution display configurations considered. The results validate that biofeedback can be modeled as an additional torque to the postural

  17. Endogenous growth and the environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Withagen, C.A.A.M.; Vellinga, N.

    2001-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between environmental policy and growth, from the perspective of endogenous growth theory. In particular three standard endogenous growth models are supplemented with environmental issues, such as pollution and exhaustibility of natural resources. It is found

  18. Endogenous growth and environmental policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Withagen, C.A.A.M.; Vellinga, N.

    2001-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between environmental policy and growth, from the perspective of endogenous growth theory. In particular three standard endogenous growth models are supplemented with environmental issues, such as pollution and exhaustibility of natural resources. It is found

  19. Endogenous antipyretics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Joachim

    2006-09-01

    The febrile increase of body temperature is regarded as a component of the complex host response to infection or inflammation that accompanies the activation of the immune system. Late phases of fever appear mediated by pro-inflammatory cytokines called endogenous pyrogens. The rise of body temperature is beneficial because it accelerates several components of the activated immune system. To prevent an excessive and dangerous rise of body temperature the febrile response is controlled, limited in strength and duration, and sometimes even prevented by the actions of endogenous antipyretic substances liberated systemically or within the brain during fever. In most cases the antipyretic effects are achieved by an inhibitory influence on the formation or action of endogenous pyrogens, or by effects on neuronal thermoregulatory circuits that are activated during fever. Endogenous antipyretic substances include steroid hormones, neuropeptides, cytokines and other molecules. It is the purpose of this review to consider the current state in the research on endogenous antipyretic systems.

  20. Incorporating modelled subglacial hydrology into inversions for basal drag

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. P. Koziol

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A key challenge in modelling coupled ice-flow–subglacial hydrology is initializing the state and parameters of the system. We address this problem by presenting a workflow for initializing these values at the start of a summer melt season. The workflow depends on running a subglacial hydrology model for the winter season, when the system is not forced by meltwater inputs, and ice velocities can be assumed constant. Key parameters of the winter run of the subglacial hydrology model are determined from an initial inversion for basal drag using a linear sliding law. The state of the subglacial hydrology model at the end of winter is incorporated into an inversion of basal drag using a non-linear sliding law which is a function of water pressure. We demonstrate this procedure in the Russell Glacier area and compare the output of the linear sliding law with two non-linear sliding laws. Additionally, we compare the modelled winter hydrological state to radar observations and find that it is in line with summer rather than winter observations.

  1. An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Dong Gu; Thomas, Valerie M.

    2012-01-01

    Energy policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and change the mix of electricity generation sources, such as carbon cap-and-trade systems and renewable electricity standards, can affect not only the source of electricity generation, but also the price of electricity and, consequently, demand. We develop an optimization model to determine the lowest cost investment and operation plan for the generating capacity of an electric power system. The model incorporates demand response to price change. In a case study for a U.S. state, we show the price, demand, and generation mix implications of a renewable electricity standard, and of a carbon cap-and-trade policy with and without initial free allocation of carbon allowances. This study shows that both the demand moderating effects and the generation mix changing effects of the policies can be the sources of carbon emissions reductions, and also shows that the share of the sources could differ with different policy designs. The case study provides different results when demand elasticity is excluded, underscoring the importance of incorporating demand response in the evaluation of electricity generation policies. - Highlights: ► We develop an electric power system optimization model including demand elasticity. ► Both renewable electricity and carbon cap-and-trade policies can moderate demand. ► Both policies affect the generation mix, price, and demand for electricity. ► Moderated demand can be a significant source of carbon emission reduction. ► For cap-and-trade policies, initial free allowances change outcomes significantly.

  2. Exogenous and Endogenous Learning Resources in the Actiotope Model of Giftedness and Its Significance for Gifted Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziegler, Albert; Chandler, Kimberley L.; Vialle, Wilma; Stoeger, Heidrun

    2017-01-01

    Based on the Actiotope Model of Giftedness, this article introduces a learning-resource-oriented approach for gifted education. It provides a comprehensive categorization of learning resources, including five exogenous learning resources termed "educational capital" and five endogenous learning resources termed "learning…

  3. Tantalum strength model incorporating temperature, strain rate and pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett; Brown, Justin; Lane, Matt

    Tantalum is a body-centered-cubic (BCC) refractory metal that is widely used in many applications in high temperature, strain rate and pressure environments. In this work, we propose a physically-based strength model for tantalum that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. A constitutive model for single crystal tantalum is developed based on dislocation kink-pair theory, and calibrated to measurements on single crystal specimens. The model is then used to predict deformations of single- and polycrystalline tantalum. In addition, the proposed strength model is implemented into Sandia's ALEGRA solid dynamics code to predict plastic deformations of tantalum in engineering-scale applications at extreme conditions, e.g. Taylor impact tests and Z machine's high pressure ramp compression tests, and the results are compared with available experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  4. Incorporation of chemical kinetic models into process control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herget, C.J.; Frazer, J.W.

    1981-01-01

    An important consideration in chemical process control is to determine the precise rationing of reactant streams, particularly when a large time delay exists between the mixing of the reactants and the measurement of the product. In this paper, a method is described for incorporating chemical kinetic models into the control strategy in order to achieve optimum operating conditions. The system is first characterized by determining a reaction rate surface as a function of all input reactant concentrations over a feasible range. A nonlinear constrained optimization program is then used to determine the combination of reactants which produces the specified yield at minimum cost. This operating condition is then used to establish the nominal concentrations of the reactants. The actual operation is determined through a feedback control system employing a Smith predictor. The method is demonstrated on a laboratory bench scale enzyme reactor

  5. Modulation of the endogenous production of protoporphyrin IX in a yeast-based model organism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joniová, Jaroslava; Gerelli, Emmanuel; Wagnières, Georges

    2017-02-01

    The main aim of this study was to assess conditions at which simple yeast-based model organism produces maximal levels of protoporphyrin IX (PpIX) after an exogenous administration of its precursor, 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA), and the ferrous-ion chelator 2,2'-bipyridyl. We observed that the fluorescing porphyrin, produced after these administrations, was likely to be PpIX since fluorescence spectroscopy of the porphyrins produced endogenously in yeast cells resembles that of PpIX in DMSO and in vivo in the chick's chorioallantoic membrane model. Also, fluorescence lifetimes of these porphyrins are very similar to that of PpIX in vitro and in vivo. This suggests that PpIX is the main fluorescent compound produced by yeast in our conditions. We found that the conditions at which yeast produces the maximal PpIX were a synchronous administration of 5 μM ALA and 1 mM 2,2'-bipyridyl for yeast incubated in aqueous glucose and 1 mM 2,2'-bipyridyl in the presence of YPD medium. Such a simple model is of high interest to study basic mechanisms involved in the mitochondrial respiration since PpIX, which is produced in this organelle, can be used as an oxygen sensor, or to perform photodynamic therapy and photodiagnosis. Since the absorption and scattering coefficients of this model are much smaller than those of soft tissues over the visible part of the spectrum, a version of this model loaded with appropriated amounts of light absorbing and scattering particles could be designed as a phantom to mimic tumors containing PpIX, a useful tool to optimize certain cancer photodetection set-ups.

  6. Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo’s business cycle model and its implications for monetary policy

    OpenAIRE

    Kallåk Anundsen , André; Sigurd Holmsen Krogh, Tord; Nymoen, Ragnar; Vislie, Jon

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the business cycle model that Trygve Haavelmo developed as part of his research program in macroeconomic and monetary theory. Driven by a mismatch between the marginal return to capital and the rate of return required by capital owners, this model generates endogenous cycles. The theory leads to a distinct analysis of the scope and limitations of monetary policy. A main message of the model is that care should be taken when conducting 'autonomous' monetary policy and that ...

  7. On multilevel RBF collocation to solve nonlinear PDEs arising from endogenous stochastic volatility models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastani, Ali Foroush; Dastgerdi, Maryam Vahid; Mighani, Abolfazl

    2018-06-01

    The main aim of this paper is the analytical and numerical study of a time-dependent second-order nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) arising from the endogenous stochastic volatility model, introduced in [Bensoussan, A., Crouhy, M. and Galai, D., Stochastic equity volatility related to the leverage effect (I): equity volatility behavior. Applied Mathematical Finance, 1, 63-85, 1994]. As the first step, we derive a consistent set of initial and boundary conditions to complement the PDE, when the firm is financed by equity and debt. In the sequel, we propose a Newton-based iteration scheme for nonlinear parabolic PDEs which is an extension of a method for solving elliptic partial differential equations introduced in [Fasshauer, G. E., Newton iteration with multiquadrics for the solution of nonlinear PDEs. Computers and Mathematics with Applications, 43, 423-438, 2002]. The scheme is based on multilevel collocation using radial basis functions (RBFs) to solve the resulting locally linearized elliptic PDEs obtained at each level of the Newton iteration. We show the effectiveness of the resulting framework by solving a prototypical example from the field and compare the results with those obtained from three different techniques: (1) a finite difference discretization; (2) a naive RBF collocation and (3) a benchmark approximation, introduced for the first time in this paper. The numerical results confirm the robustness, higher convergence rate and good stability properties of the proposed scheme compared to other alternatives. We also comment on some possible research directions in this field.

  8. Fluorescence lifetime imaging of endogenous molecules in live mouse cancer models (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svindrych, Zdenek; Wang, Tianxiong; Hu, Song; Periasamy, Ammasi

    2017-02-01

    NADH and FAD are important endogenous fluorescent coenzymes participating in key enzymatic reactions of cellular metabolism. While fluorescence intensities of NADH and FAD have been used to determine the redox state of cells and tissues, this simple approach breaks down in the case of deep-tissue intravital imaging due to depth- and wavelength-dependent light absorption and scattering. To circumvent this limitation, our research focuses on fluorescence lifetimes of two-photon excited NADH and FAD emission to study the metabolic state of live tissues. In our custom-built scanning microscope we combine tunable femtosecond Ti:sapphire laser (operating at 740 nm for NADH excitation and 890 nm for FAD excitation), two GaAsP hybrid detectors for registering individual fluorescence photons and two Becker and Hickl time correlator boards for high precision lifetime measurements. Together with our rigorous FLIM analysis approach (including image segmentation, multi-exponential decay fitting and detailed statistical analysis) we are able to detect metabolic changes in cancer xenografts (human pancreatic cancer MPanc96 cells injected subcutaneously into the ear of an immunodeficient nude mouse), relative to surrounding healthy tissue. Advantageously, with the same instrumentation we can also take high-resolution and high-contrast images of second harmonic signal (SHG) originating from collagen fibers of both the healthy skin and the growing tumor. The combination of metabolic measurements (NADH and FAD lifetime) and morphological information (collagen SHG) allows us to follow the tumor growth in live mouse model and the changes in tumor microenvironment.

  9. Digital terrain model generalization incorporating scale, semantic and cognitive constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partsinevelos, Panagiotis; Papadogiorgaki, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Cartographic generalization is a well-known process accommodating spatial data compression, visualization and comprehension under various scales. In the last few years, there are several international attempts to construct tangible GIS systems, forming real 3D surfaces using a vast number of mechanical parts along a matrix formation (i.e., bars, pistons, vacuums). Usually, moving bars upon a structured grid push a stretching membrane resulting in a smooth visualization for a given surface. Most of these attempts suffer either in their cost, accuracy, resolution and/or speed. Under this perspective, the present study proposes a surface generalization process that incorporates intrinsic constrains of tangible GIS systems including robotic-motor movement and surface stretching limitations. The main objective is to provide optimized visualizations of 3D digital terrain models with minimum loss of information. That is, to minimize the number of pixels in a raster dataset used to define a DTM, while reserving the surface information. This neighborhood type of pixel relations adheres to the basics of Self Organizing Map (SOM) artificial neural networks, which are often used for information abstraction since they are indicative of intrinsic statistical features contained in the input patterns and provide concise and characteristic representations. Nevertheless, SOM remains more like a black box procedure not capable to cope with possible particularities and semantics of the application at hand. E.g. for coastal monitoring applications, the near - coast areas, surrounding mountains and lakes are more important than other features and generalization should be "biased"-stratified to fulfill this requirement. Moreover, according to the application objectives, we extend the SOM algorithm to incorporate special types of information generalization by differentiating the underlying strategy based on topologic information of the objects included in the application. The final

  10. Modelling the vicious circle between obesity and physical activity in children and adolescents using a bivariate probit model with endogenous regressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, C-Y; Chen, L-J; Ku, P-W; Chen, C-M

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents has become one of the most important public health issues around the world. Lack of physical activity is a risk factor for obesity, while being obese could reduce the likelihood of participating in physical activity. Failing to account for the endogeneity between obesity and physical activity would result in biased estimation. This study investigates the relationship between overweight and physical activity by taking endogeneity into consideration. It develops an endogenous bivariate probit model estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The data included 4008 boys and 4197 girls in the 5th-9th grades in Taiwan in 2007-2008. The relationship between overweight and physical activity is significantly negative in the endogenous model, but insignificant in the comparative exogenous model. This endogenous relationship presents a vicious circle in which lower levels of physical activity lead to overweight, while those who are already overweight engage in less physical activity. The results not only reveal the importance of endogenous treatment, but also demonstrate the robust negative relationship between these two factors. An emphasis should be put on overweight and obese children and adolescents in order to break the vicious circle. Promotion of physical activity by appropriate counselling programmes and peer support could be effective in reducing the prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents.

  11. A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Nazos, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Stochastic MILP model for the optimal energy planning of a power system. •Power market dynamics (offers/bids) are incorporated in the proposed model. •Monte Carlo method for capturing the uncertainty of some key parameters. •Analytical supply cost composition per power producer and activity. •Clean dark and spark spreads are calculated for each power unit. -- Abstract: This paper presents an optimization-based methodological approach to address the problem of the optimal planning of a power system at an annual level in competitive and uncertain power markets. More specifically, a stochastic mixed integer linear programming model (MILP) has been developed, combining advanced optimization techniques with Monte Carlo method in order to deal with uncertainty issues. The main focus of the proposed framework is the dynamic formulation of the strategy followed by all market participants in volatile market conditions, as well as detailed economic assessment of the power system’s operation. The applicability of the proposed approach has been tested on a real case study of the interconnected Greek power system, quantifying in detail all the relevant technical and economic aspects of the system’s operation. The proposed work identifies in the form of probability distributions the optimal power generation mix, electricity trade at a regional level, carbon footprint, as well as detailed total supply cost composition, according to the assumed market structure. The paper demonstrates that the proposed optimization approach is able to provide important insights into the appropriate energy strategies designed by market participants, as well as on the strategic long-term decisions to be made by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level, underscoring potential risks and providing appropriate price signals on critical energy projects under real market operating conditions.

  12. Incorporating Context Dependency of Species Interactions in Species Distribution Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Gouhier, Tarik C; Menge, Bruce A

    2017-07-01

    Species distribution models typically use correlative approaches that characterize the species-environment relationship using occurrence or abundance data for a single species. However, species distributions are determined by both abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Therefore, climate change is expected to impact species through direct effects on their physiology and indirect effects propagated through their resources, predators, competitors, or mutualists. Furthermore, the sign and strength of species interactions can change according to abiotic conditions, resulting in context-dependent species interactions that may change across space or with climate change. Here, we incorporated the context dependency of species interactions into a dynamic species distribution model. We developed a multi-species model that uses a time-series of observational survey data to evaluate how abiotic conditions and species interactions affect the dynamics of three rocky intertidal species. The model further distinguishes between the direct effects of abiotic conditions on abundance and the indirect effects propagated through interactions with other species. We apply the model to keystone predation by the sea star Pisaster ochraceus on the mussel Mytilus californianus and the barnacle Balanus glandula in the rocky intertidal zone of the Pacific coast, USA. Our method indicated that biotic interactions between P. ochraceus and B. glandula affected B. glandula dynamics across >1000 km of coastline. Consistent with patterns from keystone predation, the growth rate of B. glandula varied according to the abundance of P. ochraceus in the previous year. The data and the model did not indicate that the strength of keystone predation by P. ochraceus varied with a mean annual upwelling index. Balanus glandula cover increased following years with high phytoplankton abundance measured as mean annual chlorophyll-a. M. californianus exhibited the same

  13. Model for Volatile Incorporation into Soils and Dust on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, B. C.; Yen, A.

    2006-12-01

    Martian soils with high content of compounds of sulfur and chlorine are ubiquitous on Mars, having been found at all five landing sites. Sulfate and chloride salts are implicated by a variety of evidence, but few conclusive specific identifications have been made. Discovery of jarosite and Mg-Ca sulfates in outcrops at Meridiani Planum (MER mission) and regional-scale beds of kieserite and gypsum (Mars Express mission) notwithstanding, the sulfates in soils are uncertain. Chlorides or other Cl-containing minerals have not been uniquely identified directly by any method. Viking and Pathfinder missions found trends in the elemental analytical data consistent with MgSO4, but Viking results are biased by duricrust samples and Pathfinder by soil contamination of rock surfaces. The Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) missions have taken extensive data on soils with no confirmation of trends implicating any particular cation. In our model of martian dust and soil, the S and Cl are initially incorporated by condensation or chemisorption on grains directly from gas phase molecules in the atmosphere. It is shown by modeling that the coatings thus formed cannot quantitatively explain the apparent elemental composition of these materials, and therefore involve the migration of ions and formation of microscopic weathering rinds. Original cation inventories of unweathered particles are isochemically conserved. Exposed rock surfaces should also have micro rinds, depending upon the length of time of exposure. Martian soils may therefore have unusual chemical properties when interacting with aqueous layers or infused fluids. Potential ramifications to the quantitative accuracy of x-ray fluorescence and Moessbauer spectroscopy on unprocessed samples are also assessed.

  14. Endogenous retrovirus induces leukemia in a xenograft mouse model for primary myelofibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triviai, Ioanna; Ziegler, Marion; Bergholz, Ulla; Oler, Andrew J; Stübig, Thomas; Prassolov, Vladimir; Fehse, Boris; Kozak, Christine A; Kröger, Nicolaus; Stocking, Carol

    2014-06-10

    The compound immunodeficiencies in nonobese diabetic (NOD) inbred mice homozygous for the Prkdc(scid) and Il2rg(null) alleles (NSG mice) permit engraftment of a wide-range of primary human cells, enabling sophisticated modeling of human disease. In studies designed to define neoplastic stem cells of primary myelofibrosis (PMF), a myeloproliferative neoplasm characterized by profound disruption of the hematopoietic microenvironment, we observed a high frequency of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in NSG mice. AML was of mouse origin, confined to PMF-xenografted mice, and contained multiple clonal integrations of ecotropic murine leukemia virus (E-MuLV). Significantly, MuLV replication was not only observed in diseased mice, but also in nontreated NSG controls. Furthermore, in addition to the single ecotropic endogenous retrovirus (eERV) located on chromosome 11 (Emv30) in the NOD genome, multiple de novo germ-line eERV integrations were observed in mice from each of four independent NSG mouse colonies. Analysis confirmed that E-MuLV originated from the Emv30 provirus and that recombination events were not necessary for virus replication or AML induction. Pathogenicity is thus likely attributable to PMF-mediated paracrine stimulation of mouse myeloid cells, which serve as targets for retroviral infection and transformation, as evidenced by integration into the Evi1 locus, a hotspot for retroviral-induced myeloid leukemia. This study thus corroborates a role of paracrine stimulation in PMF disease progression, underlines the importance of target cell type and numbers in MuLV-induced disease, and mandates awareness of replicating MuLV in NOD immunodeficient mice, which can significantly influence experimental results and their interpretation.

  15. Enteric serotonin and oxytocin: endogenous regulation of severity in a murine model of necrotizing enterocolitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross Margolis, Kara; Vittorio, Jennifer; Talavera, Maria; Gluck, Karen; Li, Zhishan; Iuga, Alina; Stevanovic, Korey; Saurman, Virginia; Israelyan, Narek; Welch, Martha G; Gershon, Michael D

    2017-11-01

    Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), a gastrointestinal inflammatory disease of unknown etiology that may also affect the liver, causes a great deal of morbidity and mortality in premature infants. We tested the hypothesis that signaling molecules, which are endogenous to the bowel, regulate the severity of intestinal and hepatic damage in an established murine NEC model. Specifically, we postulated that mucosal serotonin (5-HT), which is proinflammatory, would exacerbate experimental NEC and that oxytocin (OT), which is present in enteric neurons and is anti-inflammatory, would oppose it. Genetic deletion of the 5-HT transporter (SERT), which increases and prolongs effects of 5-HT, was found to increase the severity of systemic manifestations, intestinal inflammation, and associated hepatotoxicity of experimental NEC. In contrast, genetic deletion of tryptophan hydroxylase 1 (TPH1), which is responsible for 5-HT biosynthesis in enterochromaffin (EC) cells of the intestinal mucosa, and TPH inhibition with LP-920540 both decrease the severity of experimental NEC in the small intestine and liver. These observations suggest that 5-HT from EC cells helps to drive the inflammatory damage to the gut and liver that occurs in the murine NEC model. Administration of OT decreased, while the OT receptor antagonist atosiban exacerbated, the intestinal inflammation of experimental NEC. Data from the current investigation are consistent with the tested hypotheses-that the enteric signaling molecules, 5-HT (positively) and OT (negatively) regulate severity of inflammation in a mouse model of NEC. Moreover, we suggest that mucosally restricted inhibition of 5-HT biosynthesis and/or administration of OT may be useful in the treatment of NEC. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Serotonin (5-HT) and oxytocin reciprocally regulate the severity of intestinal inflammation and hepatotoxicity in a murine model of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). Selective depletion of mucosal 5-HT through genetic deletion or

  16. Food and energy choices for India: a programming model with partial endogenous energy requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, K S; Srinivasan, T N

    1980-09-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model for all matter-energy processing subsystems at the level of the society, specifically India. It explores India's choices in the food and energy sectors over the coming decades. Alternative land intensive, irrigation energy intensive, and fertilizer intensive techniques of food production are identified using a nonlinear programming model. The land saved is devoted to growing firewood. The optimum combination of railway (steam, diesel, and electric traction) and road (automobiles, diesel trucks, and diesel and gasoline buses) transport is determined. For the oil sector, two alternative sources of supply of crude oil and petroleum products are included, namely, domestic production and imports. The optimum choice is determined through a linear programming model. While the model is basically a static one, designed to determine the optimal choice for the target year of 2000-2001, certain intertemporal detail is incorporated for electricity generation. The model minimizes the costs of meeting the needs for food, transport in terms of passenger kilometers and goods per ton per kilometer, energy needs for domestic cooking and lighting, and the energy needs of the rest of the economy.

  17. Knowledge licensing in a model of R&D-driven endogenous growth

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jerbashian, Vahagn

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 16, č. 2 (2016), s. 555-579 ISSN 1935-1690 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : endogenous growth * in-house R&D * intellectual property regulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.043, year: 2016

  18. Information and communication technologies in a multi-sector endogenous growth model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vourvachaki, Evangelia

    -, č. 386 (2009), s. 1-56 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : multi-sector economy * endogenous growth * information and communication technologies Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp386.pdf

  19. Anti-colitis and -adhesion effects of daikenchuto via endogenous adrenomedullin enhancement in Crohn's disease mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kono, Toru; Kaneko, Atsushi; Hira, Yoshiki; Suzuki, Tatsuya; Chisato, Naoyuki; Ohtake, Nobuhiro; Miura, Naoko; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

    2010-06-01

    Adrenomedullin (ADM) is a member of the calcitonin family of regulatory peptides, and is reported to have anti-inflammatory effects in animal models of Crohn's disease (CD). We investigated the therapeutic effects of daikenchuto (DKT), an extracted Japanese herbal medicine, on the regulation of endogenous ADM in the gastrointestinal tract in a CD mouse model. Colitis was induced in mice by intrarectal instillation of 2,4,6-trinitrobenzenesulfonic acid (TNBS); afterwards, DKT was given orally. Colonic damage was assessed on day 3 by macroscopic and microscopic observation, enzyme immunoassays of proinflammatory cytokines in the colonic mucosa, and serum amyloid A (SAA), a hepatic acute-phase protein. To determine the involvement of ADM, an ADM antagonist was instilled intrarectally before DKT administration. The effect of DKT on ADM production by intestinal epithelial cells was evaluated by enzyme immunoassay and real-time PCR. DKT significantly attenuated mucosal damage and colonic inflammatory adhesions, and inhibited elevations of SAA in plasma and the proinflammatory cytokines TNFα and IFNγ in the colon. Small and large intestinal epithelial cells produced higher levels of ADM after DKT stimulation. A DKT-treated IEC-6 cell line also showed enhanced ADM production at protein and mRNA levels. Abolition of this effect by pretreatment with an ADM antagonist shows that DKT appears to exert its anti-colitis effect via up-regulation of endogenous ADM in the intestinal tract. DKT exerts beneficial effects in a CD mouse model through endogenous release and production of ADM. Endogenous ADM may be a therapeutic target for CD. Copyright © 2009 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Endogeneity and Heterogeneity in a Probit Demand Model: Estimation Using Aggregate Data

    OpenAIRE

    Pradeep K. Chintagunta

    2001-01-01

    Two issues that have become increasingly important while estimating the parameters of aggregate demand functions to study firm behavior are the of marketing activities (typically, price) and across consumers in the market under consideration. Ignoring these issues in the estimation of the demand function parameters can lead to biased and inconsistent estimates for the effects of marketing activities. Endogeneity and heterogeneity have achieved prominence in large measure because of the increa...

  1. Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change

    OpenAIRE

    Troy Davig; Eric M. Leeper

    2006-01-01

    This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation effects generated by the possibility of regime change can be quantitatively important; (ii) symmetric shocks can have asymmetric effects; (iii) endogenous switching is a natural way to formally model preempt...

  2. Discrete factor approximations in simultaneous equation models: estimating the impact of a dummy endogenous variable on a continuous outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mroz, T A

    1999-10-01

    This paper contains a Monte Carlo evaluation of estimators used to control for endogeneity of dummy explanatory variables in continuous outcome regression models. When the true model has bivariate normal disturbances, estimators using discrete factor approximations compare favorably to efficient estimators in terms of precision and bias; these approximation estimators dominate all the other estimators examined when the disturbances are non-normal. The experiments also indicate that one should liberally add points of support to the discrete factor distribution. The paper concludes with an application of the discrete factor approximation to the estimation of the impact of marriage on wages.

  3. Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models-a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, Ullash K.; Fahl, Ulrich; Remme, Uwe; Blesl, Markus; Voss, Alfred

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of global diffusion potential of learning technologies and their timely specific cost development across regions is always a challenging issue for the future technology policy preparation. Further the process of evaluation gains interest especially by endogenous treatment of energy technologies under uncertainty in learning rates with technology gap across the regions in global regional cluster learning approach. This work devised, implemented, and examined new methodologies on technology gaps (a practical problem), using two broad concepts of knowledge deficit and time lag approaches in global learning, applying the floor cost approach methodology. The study was executed in a multi-regional, technology-rich and long horizon bottom-up linear energy system model on The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System (TIMES) framework. Global learning selects highest learning technologies in maximum uncertainty of learning rate scenario, whereas any form of technology gap retards the global learning process and discourages the technologies deployment. Time lag notions of technology gaps prefer heavy utilization of learning technologies in developed economies for early reduction of specific cost. Technology gaps of any kind should be reduced among economies through the promotion and enactment of various policies by governments, in order to utilize the technological resources by mass deployment to combat ongoing climate change.

  4. Optimal Incentives in a Principal–Agent Model with Endogenous Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco A. Marini

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available One of the standard predictions of the agency theory is that more incentives can be given to agents with lower risk aversion. In this paper, we show that this relationship may be absent or reversed when the technology is endogenous and projects with a higher efficiency are also riskier. Using a modified version of the Holmstrom and Milgrom’s framework, we obtain that lower agent’s risk aversion unambiguously leads to higher incentives when the technology function linking efficiency and riskiness is elastic, while the risk aversion–incentive relationship can be positive when this function is rigid.

  5. ENDOGENEITY OF INDONESIAN MONEY SUPPLY

    OpenAIRE

    Rachma, Meutia Safrina

    2011-01-01

    There has been a long debate about the endogeneity of money supply. The main objective of this article is to identify whether money supply in Indonesia is an exogenous or an endogenous variable. Using a Vector Autoregressive model and monthly data 1997(5)-2010(6), the estimation result shows that money supply in Indonesia is an endogenous variable. The movement of broad money supply does influence the movement of base money and Consumer Price Index. Consequently, the central bank does not hav...

  6. Endogeneity Of Indonesian Money Supply

    OpenAIRE

    Rachma, Meutia Safrina

    2010-01-01

    There has been a long debate about the endogeneity of money supply. The main objective of this article is to identify whether money supply in Indonesia is an exogenous or an endogenous variable. Using a Vector Autoregressive model and monthly data 1997(5)-2010(6), the estimation result shows that money supply in Indonesia is an endogenous variable. The movement of broad money supply does influence the movement of base money and Consumer Price Index. Consequently, the central bank does not hav...

  7. Habits, aspirations and endogenous fertility

    OpenAIRE

    Luciano Fanti

    2012-01-01

    Motivated by the increasing literature on endogenous preferences as well as on endogenous fertility, this paper investigates the implications of the interaction of the endogenous determination of the number of children with habit and aspiration formation in an OLG model. In contrast with the previous literature, we show that greater aspirations may lead to higher savings, and more interestingly, always increase the neoclassical economic growth.

  8. Local and global bifurcations in an economic growth model with endogenous labour supply and multiplicative external habits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gori, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

    2014-03-01

    This paper analyses the mathematical properties of an economic growth model with overlapping generations, endogenous labour supply, and multiplicative external habits. The dynamics of the economy is characterised by a two-dimensional map describing the time evolution of capital and labour supply. We show that if the relative importance of external habits in the utility function is sufficiently high, multiple (determinate or indeterminate) fixed points and poverty traps can exist. In addition, periodic or quasiperiodic behaviour and/or coexistence of attractors may occur.

  9. 75 FR 20265 - Airworthiness Directives; Liberty Aerospace Incorporated Model XL-2 Airplanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-19

    ... Office, 1701 Columbia Avenue, College Park, Georgia 30337; telephone: (404) 474-5524; facsimile: (404... Airworthiness Directives; Liberty Aerospace Incorporated Model XL-2 Airplanes AGENCY: Federal Aviation...-08- 05, which applies to certain Liberty Aerospace Incorporated Model XL-2 airplanes. AD 2009-08-05...

  10. Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

    OpenAIRE

    Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

    2012-01-01

    Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

  11. Endogenous economic growth, EROI, and transition towards renewable energy

    OpenAIRE

    Victor Court; Pierre-André Jouvet; Frédéric Lantz

    2015-01-01

    Due to their initial lack of emphasis on energy and natural resources, exogenous and endogenous growth models have suffered the same critic regarding the limits to economic growth imposed by finite Earth resources. Thus, various optimal control models that incorporate energy or natural resources have been developed during the last decades. However, in all these models the importance of the Energy Return On Energy Investment (EROI) has never been raised. The EROI is the ratio of the quantity o...

  12. Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 suppresses endogenous fibrinolysis in a canine model of pulmonary embolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, C.F.; Fujita, T.; Hutzelmann, J.E.; Mayer, E.J.; Shebuski, R.J.

    1991-01-01

    Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), the specific, fast-acting inhibitor of tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA), binds to fibrin and has been found in high concentrations within arterial thrombi. These findings suggest that the localization of PAI-1 to a thrombus protects that same thrombus from fibrinolysis. In this study, clot-bound PAI-1 was assessed for its ability to suppress clot lysis in vivo. Autologous, canine whole blood clots were formed in the presence of increasing amounts of activated PAI-1 (0-30 micrograms/ml). Approximately 6-8% of the PAI-1 bound to the clots under the experimental conditions. Control and PAI-1-enriched clots containing iodine-125-labeled fibrin (ogen) were homogenized, washed to remove nonbound elements, and delivered to the lungs of anesthetized dogs where the homogenates subsequently underwent lysis by the endogeneous fibrinolytic system. 125I-labeled fibrin degradation products appeared in the blood of control animals within 10 minutes and were maximal by 90 minutes. PAI-1 reduced fibrin degradation product release in a dose-responsive manner at all times between 30 minutes and 5 hours (greater than or equal to 76% inhibition at 30 minutes, PAI-1 greater than or equal to 6 micrograms/ml). PAI-1 also suppressed D-dimer release from clots containing small amounts of human fibrin (ogen). t-PA administration attenuated the effects of PAI-1, whereas latent PAI-1 (20 micrograms/ml) had no effect on clot lysis. Blood levels of PA and PAI activity remained unaltered during these experiments. The results indicate that PAI-1 markedly inhibits endogenous fibrinolysis in vivo and, moreover, suggest that the localization of PAI-1 to a forming thrombus is an important physiological mechanism for subsequent thrombus stabilization

  13. Modeling error and apparent isotope discrimination confound estimation of endogenous glucose production during euglycemic glucose clamps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finegood, D.T.; Bergman, R.N.; Vranic, M.

    1988-01-01

    We previously demonstrated that conventional tracer methods applied to euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic glucose clamps result in substantially negative estimates for the rate of endogenous glucose production, particularly during the first half of 180-min clamps. We also showed that addition of tracer to the exogenous glucose infusate resulted in nonnegative endogenous glucose production (Ra) estimates. In this study, we investigated the underlying cause of negative estimates of Ra from conventional clamp/tracer methods and the reason for the difference in estimates when tracer is added to the exogenous glucose infusate. We performed euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic (300-microU/ml) clamps in normal dogs without (cold GINF protocol, n = 6) or with (hot GINF protocol, n = 6) tracer (D-[3-3H]glucose) added to the exogenous glucose infusate. In the hot GINF protocol, sufficient tracer was added to the exogenous glucose infusate such that arterial plasma specific activity (SAa) did not change from basal through the clamp period (P greater than .05). In the cold GINF studies, plasma SAa fell 81 +/- 2% from the basal level by the 3rd h of clamping. We observed a significant, transient, positive venous-arterial difference in specific activity (SAv-SAa difference) during the cold GINF studies. The SAv-SAa difference reached a peak of 27 +/- 6% at 30 min and diminished to a plateau of 7 +/- 1% between 70 and 180 min. We also observed a positive but constant SAv-SAa difference (4.6 +/- 0.2% between 10 and 180 min) during the hot GINF studies

  14. Hypoxia Inducible Factor 1α Promotes Endogenous Adaptive Response in Rat Model of Chronic Cerebral Hypoperfusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypoxia inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α, a pivotal regulator of gene expression in response to hypoxia and ischemia, is now considered to regulate both pro-survival and pro-death responses depending on the duration and severity of the stress. We previously showed that chronic global cerebral hypoperfusion (CCH triggered long-lasting accumulation of HIF-1α protein in the hippocampus of rats. However, the role of the stabilized HIF-1α in CCH is obscure. Here, we knock down endogenous HIF-1α to determine whether and how HIF-1α affects the disease processes and phenotypes of CCH. Lentivirus expressing HIF-1α small hairpin RNA was injected into the bilateral hippocampus and bilateral ventricles to knock down HIF-1α gene expression in the hippocampus and other brain areas. Permanent bilateral common carotid artery occlusions, known as 2-vessel occlusions (2VOs, were used to induce CCH in rats. Angiogenesis, oxidative stress, histopathological changes of the brain, and cognitive function were tested. Knockdown of HIF-1α prior to 2VO significantly exacerbates the impairment of learning and memory after four weeks of CCH. Mechanically, reduced cerebral angiogenesis, increased oxidative damage, and increased density of astrocytes and microglia in the cortex and some subregions of hippocampus are also shown after four weeks of CCH. Furthermore, HIF-1α knockdown also disrupts upregulation of regulated downstream genes. Our findings suggest that HIF-1α-protects the brain from oxidative stress and inflammation response in the disease process of CCH. Accumulated HIF-1α during CCH mediates endogenous adaptive processes to defend against more severe hypoperfusion injury of the brain, which may provide a therapeutic benefit.

  15. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anagnostou, I.; Sourabh, S.; Kandhai, D.

    2018-01-01

    Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of

  16. Unemployment and endogenous growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schaik, A.B.T.M.; de Groot, H.L.F.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we develop a two-sector endogenous growth model with a dual labour market, based on efficiency wages. Growth is driven by intentional R&D performed in the high-tech and high-wage sector. It is examined how a change in rivalry among firms affects simultaneously growth and unemployment.

  17. Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuurman, Noémi K.; Houtveen, Jan H.; Hamaker, Ellen L.

    2015-01-01

    Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30–50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters. PMID:26283988

  18. A statistical model for aggregating judgments by incorporating peer predictions

    OpenAIRE

    McCoy, John; Prelec, Drazen

    2017-01-01

    We propose a probabilistic model to aggregate the answers of respondents answering multiple-choice questions. The model does not assume that everyone has access to the same information, and so does not assume that the consensus answer is correct. Instead, it infers the most probable world state, even if only a minority vote for it. Each respondent is modeled as receiving a signal contingent on the actual world state, and as using this signal to both determine their own answer and predict the ...

  19. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  20. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Fok

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics and characteristics concerning buying behavior. Households may switch between the two responsiveness states over time. When comparing the performance of our model with alternative choice models that account for various forms of heterogeneity for three different datasets, we find better face validity for our parameters. Our model also forecasts better.

  1. Exogenous vs. Endogenous Separation

    OpenAIRE

    Ramey, Garey

    2008-01-01

    This paper assesses how various approaches to modelling the separation margin a¤ect the ability of the Mortensen-Pissarides job matching model to explain key facts about the aggregate labor market. Allowing for realistic time variation in the separation rate, whether exogenous or endogenous, greatly in- creases the unemployment variability generated by the model. Speci…cations with exogenous separation rates, whether constant or time-varying, fail to pro- duce realistic volatility and prod...

  2. Modeling returns volatility: Realized GARCH incorporating realized risk measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wei; Ruan, Qingsong; Li, Jianfeng; Li, Ye

    2018-06-01

    This study applies realized GARCH models by introducing several risk measures of intraday returns into the measurement equation, to model the daily volatility of E-mini S&P 500 index futures returns. Besides using the conventional realized measures, realized volatility and realized kernel as our benchmarks, we also use generalized realized risk measures, realized absolute deviation, and two realized tail risk measures, realized value-at-risk and realized expected shortfall. The empirical results show that realized GARCH models using the generalized realized risk measures provide better volatility estimation for the in-sample and substantial improvement in volatility forecasting for the out-of-sample. In particular, the realized expected shortfall performs best for all of the alternative realized measures. Our empirical results reveal that future volatility may be more attributable to present losses (risk measures). The results are robust to different sample estimation windows.

  3. Incorporating pushing in exclusion-process models of cell migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yates, Christian A; Parker, Andrew; Baker, Ruth E

    2015-05-01

    The macroscale movement behavior of a wide range of isolated migrating cells has been well characterized experimentally. Recently, attention has turned to understanding the behavior of cells in crowded environments. In such scenarios it is possible for cells to interact, inducing neighboring cells to move in order to make room for their own movements or progeny. Although the behavior of interacting cells has been modeled extensively through volume-exclusion processes, few models, thus far, have explicitly accounted for the ability of cells to actively displace each other in order to create space for themselves. In this work we consider both on- and off-lattice volume-exclusion position-jump processes in which cells are explicitly allowed to induce movements in their near neighbors in order to create space for themselves to move or proliferate into. We refer to this behavior as pushing. From these simple individual-level representations we derive continuum partial differential equations for the average occupancy of the domain. We find that, for limited amounts of pushing, comparison between the averaged individual-level simulations and the population-level model is nearly as good as in the scenario without pushing. Interestingly, we find that, in the on-lattice case, the diffusion coefficient of the population-level model is increased by pushing, whereas, for the particular off-lattice model that we investigate, the diffusion coefficient is reduced. We conclude, therefore, that it is important to consider carefully the appropriate individual-level model to use when representing complex cell-cell interactions such as pushing.

  4. Incorporating spiritual beliefs into a cognitive model of worry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosmarin, David H; Pirutinsky, Steven; Auerbach, Randy P; Björgvinsson, Thröstur; Bigda-Peyton, Joseph; Andersson, Gerhard; Pargament, Kenneth I; Krumrei, Elizabeth J

    2011-07-01

    Cognitive theory and research have traditionally highlighted the relevance of the core beliefs about oneself, the world, and the future to human emotions. For some individuals, however, core beliefs may also explicitly involve spiritual themes. In this article, we propose a cognitive model of worry, in which positive/negative beliefs about the Divine affect symptoms through the mechanism of intolerance of uncertainty. Using mediation analyses, we found support for our model across two studies, in particular, with regards to negative spiritual beliefs. These findings highlight the importance of assessing for spiritual alongside secular convictions when creating cognitive-behavioral case formulations in the treatment of religious individuals. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Modelling toluene oxidation : Incorporation of mass transfer phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoorn, J.A.A.; van Soolingen, J.; Versteeg, G. F.

    The kinetics of the oxidation of toluene have been studied in close interaction with the gas-liquid mass transfer occurring in the reactor. Kinetic parameters for a simple model have been estimated on basis of experimental observations performed under industrial conditions. The conclusions for the

  6. Incorporating pion effects into the naive quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nogami, Y.; Ohtuska, N.

    1982-01-01

    A hybrid of the naive nonrelativistic quark model and the Chew-Low model is proposed. The pion is treated as an elementary particle which interacts with the ''bare baryon'' or ''baryon core'' via the Chew-Low interaction. The baryon core, which is the source of the pion interaction, is described by the naive nonrelativistic quark model. It turns out that the baryon-core radius has to be as large as 0.8 fm, and consequently the cutoff momentum Λ for the pion interaction is < or approx. =3m/sub π/, m/sub π/ being the pion mass. Because of this small Λ (as compared with Λapprox. nucleon mass in the old Chew-Low model) the effects of the pion cloud are strongly suppressed. The baryon masses, baryon magnetic moments, and the nucleon charge radii can be reproduced quite well. However, we found it singularly difficult to fit the axial-vector weak decay constant g/sub A/

  7. Do Knowledge-Component Models Need to Incorporate Representational Competencies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rau, Martina Angela

    2017-01-01

    Traditional knowledge-component models describe students' content knowledge (e.g., their ability to carry out problem-solving procedures or their ability to reason about a concept). In many STEM domains, instruction uses multiple visual representations such as graphs, figures, and diagrams. The use of visual representations implies a…

  8. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

  9. Workforce scheduling: A new model incorporating human factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Othman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The majority of a company’s improvement comes when the right workers with the right skills, behaviors and capacities are deployed appropriately throughout a company. This paper considers a workforce scheduling model including human aspects such as skills, training, workers’ personalities, workers’ breaks and workers’ fatigue and recovery levels. This model helps to minimize the hiring, firing, training and overtime costs, minimize the number of fired workers with high performance, minimize the break time and minimize the average worker’s fatigue level.Design/methodology/approach: To achieve this objective, a multi objective mixed integer programming model is developed to determine the amount of hiring, firing, training and overtime for each worker type.Findings: The results indicate that the worker differences should be considered in workforce scheduling to generate realistic plans with minimum costs. This paper also investigates the effects of human fatigue and recovery on the performance of the production systems.Research limitations/implications: In this research, there are some assumptions that might affect the accuracy of the model such as the assumption of certainty of the demand in each period, and the linearity function of Fatigue accumulation and recovery curves. These assumptions can be relaxed in future work.Originality/value: In this research, a new model for integrating workers’ differences with workforce scheduling is proposed. To the authors' knowledge, it is the first time to study the effects of different important human factors such as human personality, skills and fatigue and recovery in the workforce scheduling process. This research shows that considering both technical and human factors together can reduce the costs in manufacturing systems and ensure the safety of the workers.

  10. Incorporating grassland management in a global vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Tao; Cozic, Anne; Lardy, Romain; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2013-04-01

    Grassland is a widespread vegetation type, covering nearly one-fifth of the world's land surface (24 million km2), and playing a significant role in the global carbon (C) cycle. Most of grasslands in Europe are cultivated to feed animals, either directly by grazing or indirectly by grass harvest (cutting). A better understanding of the C fluxes from grassland ecosystems in response to climate and management requires not only field experiments but also the aid of simulation models. ORCHIDEE process-based ecosystem model designed for large-scale applications treats grasslands as being unmanaged, where C / water fluxes are only subject to atmospheric CO2 and climate changes. Our study describes how management of grasslands is included in the ORCHIDEE, and how management affects modeled grassland-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The new model, ORCHIDEE-GM (Grassland Management) is capable with a management module inspired from a grassland model (PaSim, version 5.0), of accounting for two grassland management practices (cutting and grazing). The evaluation of the results of ORCHIDEE-GM compared with those of ORCHIDEE at 11 European sites equipped with eddy covariance and biometric measurements, show that ORCHIDEE-GM can capture realistically the cut-induced seasonal variation in biometric variables (LAI: Leaf Area Index; AGB: Aboveground Biomass) and in CO2 fluxes (GPP: Gross Primary Productivity; TER: Total Ecosystem Respiration; and NEE: Net Ecosystem Exchange). But improvements at grazing sites are only marginal in ORCHIDEE-GM, which relates to the difficulty in accounting for continuous grazing disturbance and its induced complex animal-vegetation interactions. Both NEE and GPP on monthly to annual timescales can be better simulated in ORCHIDEE-GM than in ORCHIDEE without management. At some sites, the model-observation misfit in ORCHIDEE-GM is found to be more related to ill-constrained parameter values than to model structure. Additionally, ORCHIDEE-GM is able to simulate

  11. Neutrophils responsive to endogenous IFN-beta regulate tumor angiogenesis and growth in a mouse tumor model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jablonska, Jadwiga; Leschner, Sara; Westphal, Kathrin; Lienenklaus, Stefan; Weiss, Siegfried

    2010-04-01

    Angiogenesis is a hallmark of malignant neoplasias, as the formation of new blood vessels is required for tumors to acquire oxygen and nutrients essential for their continued growth and metastasis. However, the signaling pathways leading to tumor vascularization are not fully understood. Here, using a transplantable mouse tumor model, we have demonstrated that endogenous IFN-beta inhibits tumor angiogenesis through repression of genes encoding proangiogenic and homing factors in tumor-infiltrating neutrophils. We determined that IFN-beta-deficient mice injected with B16F10 melanoma or MCA205 fibrosarcoma cells developed faster-growing tumors with better-developed blood vessels than did syngeneic control mice. These tumors displayed enhanced infiltration by CD11b+Gr1+ neutrophils expressing elevated levels of the genes encoding the proangiogenic factors VEGF and MMP9 and the homing receptor CXCR4. They also expressed higher levels of the transcription factors c-myc and STAT3, known regulators of VEGF, MMP9, and CXCR4. In vitro, treatment of these tumor-infiltrating neutrophils with low levels of IFN-beta restored expression of proangiogenic factors to control levels. Moreover, depletion of these neutrophils inhibited tumor growth in both control and IFN-beta-deficient mice. We therefore suggest that constitutively produced endogenous IFN-beta is an important mediator of innate tumor surveillance. Further, we believe our data help to explain the therapeutic effect of IFN treatment during the early stages of cancer development.

  12. Incorporating Satellite Time-Series Data into Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson

    2008-01-01

    In situ time series observations have provided a multi-decadal view of long-term changes in ocean biology. These observations are sufficiently reliable to enable discernment of even relatively small changes, and provide continuous information on a host of variables. Their key drawback is their limited domain. Satellite observations from ocean color sensors do not suffer the drawback of domain, and simultaneously view the global oceans. This attribute lends credence to their use in global and regional model validation and data assimilation. We focus on these applications using the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model. The enhancement of the satellite data using data assimilation is featured and the limitation of tongterm satellite data sets is also discussed.

  13. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioannis Anagnostou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of such a conditional independence framework to accommodate for the occasional default clustering has been questioned repeatedly. Thus, financial institutions have relied on stressed correlations or alternative copulas with more extreme tail dependence. In this paper, we propose a different remedy—augmenting systematic risk factors with a contagious default mechanism which affects the entire universe of credits. We construct credit stress propagation networks and calibrate contagion parameters for infectious defaults. The resulting framework is implemented on synthetic test portfolios wherein the contagion effect is shown to have a significant impact on the tails of the loss distributions.

  14. Incorporation of intraocular scattering in schematic eye models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Navarro, R.

    1985-01-01

    Beckmann's theory of scattering from rough surfaces is applied to obtain, from the experimental veiling glare functions, a diffuser that when placed at the pupil plane would produce the same scattering halo as the ocular media. This equivalent diffuser is introduced in a schematic eye model, and its influence on the point-spread function and the modulation-transfer function of the eye is analyzed

  15. Constitutive modeling of coronary artery bypass graft with incorporated torsion

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horný, L.; Chlup, Hynek; Žitný, R.; Adámek, T.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 2 (2009), s. 273-277 ISSN 0543-5846 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA106/08/0557 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : coronary artery bypass graft * constitutive model * digital image correlation Subject RIV: BJ - Thermodynamics Impact factor: 0.439, year: 2009 http://web.tuke.sk/sjf-kamam/mmams2009/contents.pdf

  16. Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus on methodology of coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Nevecherja, Artiom

    2018-03-01

    Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland.

  17. Stimulating endogenous cardiac regeneration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda eFinan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The healthy adult heart has a low turnover of cardiac myocytes. The renewal capacity, however, is augmented after cardiac injury. Participants in cardiac regeneration include cardiac myocytes themselves, cardiac progenitor cells, and peripheral stem cells, particularly from the bone marrow compartment. Cardiac progenitor cells and bone marrow stem cells are augmented after cardiac injury, migrate to the myocardium, and support regeneration. Depletion studies of these populations have demonstrated their necessary role in cardiac repair. However, the potential of these cells to completely regenerate the heart is limited. Efforts are now being focused on ways to augment these natural pathways to improve cardiac healing, primarily after ischemic injury but in other cardiac pathologies as well. Cell and gene therapy or pharmacological interventions are proposed mechanisms. Cell therapy has demonstrated modest results and has passed into clinical trials. However, the beneficial effects of cell therapy have primarily been their ability to produce paracrine effects on the cardiac tissue and recruit endogenous stem cell populations as opposed to direct cardiac regeneration. Gene therapy efforts have focused on prolonging or reactivating natural signaling pathways. Positive results have been demonstrated to activate the endogenous stem cell populations and are currently being tested in clinical trials. A potential new avenue may be to refine pharmacological treatments that are currently in place in the clinic. Evidence is mounting that drugs such as statins or beta blockers may alter endogenous stem cell activity. Understanding the effects of these drugs on stem cell repair while keeping in mind their primary function may strike a balance in myocardial healing. To maximize endogenous cardiac regeneration,a combination of these approaches couldameliorate the overall repair process to incorporate the participation ofmultiple cell players.

  18. Models of microbiome evolution incorporating host and microbial selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qinglong; Wu, Steven; Sukumaran, Jeet; Rodrigo, Allen

    2017-09-25

    Numerous empirical studies suggest that hosts and microbes exert reciprocal selective effects on their ecological partners. Nonetheless, we still lack an explicit framework to model the dynamics of both hosts and microbes under selection. In a previous study, we developed an agent-based forward-time computational framework to simulate the neutral evolution of host-associated microbial communities in a constant-sized, unstructured population of hosts. These neutral models allowed offspring to sample microbes randomly from parents and/or from the environment. Additionally, the environmental pool of available microbes was constituted by fixed and persistent microbial OTUs and by contributions from host individuals in the preceding generation. In this paper, we extend our neutral models to allow selection to operate on both hosts and microbes. We do this by constructing a phenome for each microbial OTU consisting of a sample of traits that influence host and microbial fitnesses independently. Microbial traits can influence the fitness of hosts ("host selection") and the fitness of microbes ("trait-mediated microbial selection"). Additionally, the fitness effects of traits on microbes can be modified by their hosts ("host-mediated microbial selection"). We simulate the effects of these three types of selection, individually or in combination, on microbiome diversities and the fitnesses of hosts and microbes over several thousand generations of hosts. We show that microbiome diversity is strongly influenced by selection acting on microbes. Selection acting on hosts only influences microbiome diversity when there is near-complete direct or indirect parental contribution to the microbiomes of offspring. Unsurprisingly, microbial fitness increases under microbial selection. Interestingly, when host selection operates, host fitness only increases under two conditions: (1) when there is a strong parental contribution to microbial communities or (2) in the absence of a strong

  19. Design Protocols and Analytical Strategies that Incorporate Structural Reliability Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, Stephen F.

    1997-01-01

    Ceramic matrix composites (CMC) and intermetallic materials (e.g., single crystal nickel aluminide) are high performance materials that exhibit attractive mechanical, thermal and chemical properties. These materials are critically important in advancing certain performance aspects of gas turbine engines. From an aerospace engineer's perspective the new generation of ceramic composites and intermetallics offers a significant potential for raising the thrust/weight ratio and reducing NO(x) emissions of gas turbine engines. These aspects have increased interest in utilizing these materials in the hot sections of turbine engines. However, as these materials evolve and their performance characteristics improve a persistent need exists for state-of-the-art analytical methods that predict the response of components fabricated from CMC and intermetallic material systems. This need provided the motivation for the technology developed under this research effort. Continuous ceramic fiber composites exhibit an increase in work of fracture, which allows for "graceful" rather than catastrophic failure. When loaded in the fiber direction, these composites retain substantial strength capacity beyond the initiation of transverse matrix cracking despite the fact that neither of its constituents would exhibit such behavior if tested alone. As additional load is applied beyond first matrix cracking, the matrix tends to break in a series of cracks bridged by the ceramic fibers. Any additional load is born increasingly by the fibers until the ultimate strength of the composite is reached. Thus modeling efforts supported under this research effort have focused on predicting this sort of behavior. For single crystal intermetallics the issues that motivated the technology development involved questions relating to material behavior and component design. Thus the research effort supported by this grant had to determine the statistical nature and source of fracture in a high strength, Ni

  20. Incorporation particle creation and annihilation into Bohm's Pilot Wave model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverdlov, Roman [Raman Research Institute, C.V. Raman Avenue, Sadashiva Nagar, Bangalore, Karnataka, 560080 (India)

    2011-07-08

    The purpose of this paper is to come up with a Pilot Wave model of quantum field theory that incorporates particle creation and annihilation without sacrificing determinism; this theory is subsequently coupled with gravity.

  1. INCORPORATION OF MECHANISTIC INFORMATION IN THE ARSENIC PBPK MODEL DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

    Science.gov (United States)

    INCORPORATING MECHANISTIC INSIGHTS IN A PBPK MODEL FOR ARSENICElaina M. Kenyon, Michael F. Hughes, Marina V. Evans, David J. Thomas, U.S. EPA; Miroslav Styblo, University of North Carolina; Michael Easterling, Analytical Sciences, Inc.A physiologically based phar...

  2. Diabetes Accelerates Retinal neuronal cell Death in A Mouse Model of endogenous Hyperhomocysteinemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preethi S. Ganapathy

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Hyperhomocysteinemia has been implicated in visual dysfunction. We reported recently that mice with endogenous hyperhomocysteinemia, due to mutation of the cystathionine-β-synthase ( cbs gene, demonstrate loss of neurons in the retinal ganglion cell (RGC layer and other retinal layers as homocysteine levels increase. Some clinical studies implicate hyperhomocysteinemia in the pathogenesis of diabetic retinopathy, which is also characterized by RGC loss. The present study used cbs +/– mice to determine whether modest elevation of plasma homocysteine, in the presence of diabetes, accelerates neuronal cell loss. Diabetes (DB was induced in 3 wk old cbs +/– and wildtype mice using streptozotocin; four groups of mice were studied: DB cbs +/– non-DB cbs +/– DB cbs +/+ ; non-DB cbs +/+ . One group of diabetic cbs +/– mice was maintained on a high methionine diet (HMD, 0.5% methionine drinking water to increase plasma homocysteine slightly. Eyes were harvested at 5, 10 and 15 weeks post-onset of diabetes; retinal cryosections were examined by light microscopy and subjected to systematic morphometric analysis. Diabetic cbs +/– had significantly fewer RGCs at 5 weeks compared to age-matched, non-diabetic cbs +/– and wildtype controls (10.0 ± 0.5 versus 14.9 ± 0.5 and 15.8 ± 0.6 cells/100 μm retina length, respectively. Significant differences in retinas of DB/high homocysteine versus controls were obtained 15 wks post-onset of diabetes including fewer RGCS and decreased thickness of inner nuclear and plexiform layers. Moderate increases in plasma homocysteine coupled with diabetes cause a more dramatic alteration of retinal phenotype than elevated homocysteine or diabetes alone and suggest that diabetes accelerates the retinal neuronal death in hyperhomocysteinemic mice.

  3. Diabetes Accelerates Retinal Neuronal Cell Death In A Mouse Model of Endogenous Hyperhomocysteinemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preethi S. Ganapathy

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Hyperhomocysteinemia has been implicated in visual dysfunction. We reported recently that mice with endogenous hyperhomocysteinemia, due to mutation of the cystathionine-β-synthase (cbs gene, demonstrate loss of neurons in the retinal ganglion cell (RGC layer and other retinal layers as homocysteine levels increase. Some clinical studies implicate hyperhomocysteinemia in the pathogenesis of diabetic retinopathy, which is also characterized by RGC loss. The present study used cbs+/- mice to determine whether modest elevation of plasma homocysteine, in the presence of diabetes, accelerates neuronal cell loss. Diabetes (DB was induced in 3 wk old cbs+/- and wildtype mice using streptozotocin; four groups of mice were studied: DB cbs+/-; non-DB cbs+/-; DB cbs+/+; non-DB cbs+/+. One group of diabetic cbs+/- mice was maintained on a high methionine diet (HMD, 0.5% methionine drinking water to increase plasma homocysteine slightly. Eyes were harvested at 5, 10 and 15 weeks post-onset of diabetes; retinal cryosections were examined by light microscopy and subjected to systematic morphometric analysis. Diabetic cbs+/- had significantly fewer RGCs at 5 weeks compared to age-matched, non-diabetic cbs+/- and wildtype controls (10.0 ± 0.5 versus 14.9 ± 0.5 and 15.8 ± 0.6 cells/100 µm retina length, respectively. Significant differences in retinas of DB/high homocysteine versus controls were obtained 15 wks post-onset of diabetes including fewer RGCS and decreased thickness of inner nuclear and plexiform layers. Moderate increases in plasma homocysteine coupled with diabetes cause a more dramatic alteration of retinal phenotype than elevated homocysteine or diabetes alone and suggest that diabetes accelerates the retinal neuronal death in hyperhomocysteinemic mice.

  4. High-Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating Shear Banding and Fracture

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-22

    High Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating Shear Banding and Fracture The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 12. DISTRIBUTION AVAILIBILITY STATEMENT 6. AUTHORS...Report as of 05-Dec-2017 Agreement Number: W911NF-13-1-0238 Organization: Columbia University Title: High Strain Rate Failure Modeling Incorporating

  5. Incorporating the life course model into MCH nutrition leadership education and training programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haughton, Betsy; Eppig, Kristen; Looney, Shannon M; Cunningham-Sabo, Leslie; Spear, Bonnie A; Spence, Marsha; Stang, Jamie S

    2013-01-01

    Life course perspective, social determinants of health, and health equity have been combined into one comprehensive model, the life course model (LCM), for strategic planning by US Health Resources and Services Administration's Maternal and Child Health Bureau. The purpose of this project was to describe a faculty development process; identify strategies for incorporation of the LCM into nutrition leadership education and training at the graduate and professional levels; and suggest broader implications for training, research, and practice. Nineteen representatives from 6 MCHB-funded nutrition leadership education and training programs and 10 federal partners participated in a one-day session that began with an overview of the models and concluded with guided small group discussions on how to incorporate them into maternal and child health (MCH) leadership training using obesity as an example. Written notes from group discussions were compiled and coded emergently. Content analysis determined the most salient themes about incorporating the models into training. Four major LCM-related themes emerged, three of which were about training: (1) incorporation by training grants through LCM-framed coursework and experiences for trainees, and similarly framed continuing education and skills development for professionals; (2) incorporation through collaboration with other training programs and state and community partners, and through advocacy; and (3) incorporation by others at the federal and local levels through policy, political, and prevention efforts. The fourth theme focused on anticipated challenges of incorporating the model in training. Multiple methods for incorporating the LCM into MCH training and practice are warranted. Challenges to incorporating include the need for research and related policy development.

  6. Vascular morphologic and functional effect of endogenous androgens in an experimental atherosclerotic rabbits model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Echeverry, Dario; Delgadillo, Alexandra; Montes, Felix

    2007-01-01

    Previous clinical and experimental studies suggest that androgens could have adverse, neutral or beneficial effect on atherosclerosis and its clinical manifestations. Methods: an experimental, randomized controlled study in 40 New Zeland white male rabbits was realized. 20 rabbits underwent orchidectomy and 20 were fed with an atherogenic diet for 20 weeks. These were distributed in four groups: 1. non-castrated under normal diet, 2. Castrated under normal diet, 3. non-castrated under atherogenic diet, and 4. Castrated under atherogenic diet. Total cholesterol and free testosterone were measured. After euthanasia, arterial relaxation independent of endothelium was quantified in aorta, as well as the one depending on endothelium, in vitro, and histomorphometric analysis of thoracic aorta were made in order to quantify the atherosclerotic plaque formation. Results: animals that had a normal diet (n=20) had total cholesterol of 51.1 ± 8.5 mg/dl and those with atherogenic diet of 429.2 ± 262.0 mg/dl (p< 0.001). Testosterone levels in the non- castrated group were 2.1 ± 0.3 ng/ml and in the castrated were 0.8 ± 0.4 ng/ml (p= 0.024). In non-castrated rabbits the effect of hypercholesterolemia (366 ± 226.1 mg/dl) inducing atherosclerotic plaque and functional vascular alteration was mild. On the other hand, atherogenic diet in castrated rabbits induced an increment in total cholesterol from 387.6 ± 292.7 mg/dl (p <0.001) and severe morphological changes such as plaque area 2.6 ± 2.3mm (p <0.001), vessel plaque/area 0.25 ± 0.1 (p <0.001) and area index of plaque/area of the media 0.4 ± 0.3 (p <0.001). Endothelium independent relaxation percentage was 85.5 ± 14.3% (p = NS) and endothelium dependent relaxation was 38.5 ± 201% (p = 0.03). Conclusion: This study realized in rabbits demonstrates that endogenous testosterone might have a preventive effect on atherosclerosis and favor endothelium dependent vascular relaxation in the presence of severe

  7. Developing Baltic cod recruitment models II : Incorporation of environmental variability and species interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köster, Fritz; Hinrichsen, H.H.; St. John, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We investigate whether a process-oriented approach based on the results of field, laboratory, and modelling studies can be used to develop a stock-environment-recruitment model for Central Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on exploratory statistical analysis, significant variables influencing...... cod in these areas, suggesting that key biotic and abiotic processes can be successfully incorporated into recruitment models....... survival of early life stages and varying systematically among spawning sites were incorporated into stock-recruitment models, first for major cod spawning sites and then combined for the entire Central Baltic. Variables identified included potential egg production by the spawning stock, abiotic conditions...

  8. Endogenous expression pattern of resolvin D1 in a rat model of self-resolution of lipopolysaccharide-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome and inflammation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wei; Wang, Zai-ping; Gui, Ping; Xia, Weiyi; Xia, Zhengyuan; Zhang, Xing-cai; Deng, Qing-zhu; Xuan, Wei; Marie, Christelle; Wang, Lin-lin; Wu, Qing-ping; Wang, Tingting; Lin, Yun

    2014-11-01

    Resolvin D1 (RvD1), an endogenous lipid mediator derived from docosahexaenoic acid, has been reported to promote a biphasic activity in anti-inflammatory response and regulate inflammatory resolution. The present study aimed to determine the endogenous expression pattern of RvD1 in a rat model of self-resolution of lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and inflammation. The ARDS model was induced by administrating LPS (2mg/kg) via tracheotomy in 138 male Sprague-Dawley rats. At specified time points, lung injury and inflammation were respectively assessed by lung histology and analysis of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and cytokine levels. The expression of endogenous RvD1 was detected by high performance liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry. The results showed that histological lung injury peaked between 6h (LPS6h) and day 3, followed by recovery over 4-10 days after LPS administration. Lung tissue polymorph nuclear cell (PMN) was significantly increased at LPS6h, and peaked between 6h to day 2. The levels of interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-10 were significantly increased at LPS6h and remained higher over day 10 as compared to baseline. Intriguingly, the endogenous RvD1 expression was decreased gradually during the first 3 days, followed by almost completely recovery over days 9-10. The finding indicated that endogenous RvD1 underwent a decrease in expression followed by gradual increase that was basically coincident with the lung injury recovery in a rat model of self-resolution LPS-induced ARDS and inflammation. Our results may help define the optimal therapeutic window for endogenous RvD1 to prevent or treat LPS-induced ARDS and inflammation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Computer Modelling of Functional Aspects of Noise in Endogenously Oscillating Neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, M. T.; Dewald, M.; Voigt, K.; Braun, H. A.; Moss, F.

    1998-03-01

    Membrane potential oscillations are a widespread feature of neuronal activity. When such oscillations operate close to the spike-triggering threshold, noise can become an essential property of spike-generation. According to that, we developed a minimal Hodgkin-Huxley-type computer model which includes a noise term. This model accounts for experimental data from quite different cells ranging from mammalian cortical neurons to fish electroreceptors. With slight modifications of the parameters, the model's behavior can be tuned to bursting activity, which additionally allows it to mimick temperature encoding in peripheral cold receptors including transitions to apparently chaotic dynamics as indicated by methods for the detection of unstable periodic orbits. Under all conditions, cooperative effects between noise and nonlinear dynamics can be shown which, beyond stochastic resonance, might be of functional significance for stimulus encoding and neuromodulation.

  10. Self-reported pain and disability outcomes from an endogenous model of muscular back pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Steven Z

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Our purpose was to develop an induced musculoskeletal pain model of acute low back pain and examine the relationship among pain, disability and fear in this model. Methods Delayed onset muscle soreness was induced in 52 healthy volunteers (23 women, 17 men; average age 22.4 years; average BMI 24.3 using fatiguing trunk extension exercise. Measures of pain intensity, unpleasantness, and location, and disability, were tracked for one week after exercise. Results Pain intensity ranged from 0 to 68 with 57.5% of participants reporting peak pain at 24 hours and 32.5% reporting this at 48 hours. The majority of participants reported pain in the low back with 33% also reporting pain in the legs. The ratio of unpleasantness to intensity indicated that the sensation was considered more unpleasant than intense. Statistical differences were noted in levels of reported disability between participants with and without leg pain. Pain intensity at 24 hours was correlated with pain unpleasantness, pain area and disability. Also, fear of pain was associated with pain intensity and unpleasantness. Disability was predicted by sex, presence of leg pain, and pain intensity; however, the largest amount of variance was explained by pain intensity (27% of a total 40%. The second model, predicting pain intensity only included fear of pain and explained less than 10% of the variance in pain intensity. Conclusions Our results demonstrate a significant association between pain and disability in this model in young adults. However, the model is most applicable to patients with lower levels of pain and disability. Future work should include older adults to improve the external validity of this model.

  11. Properties of the endogenous post-stratified estimator using a random forests model

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Tipton; Jean Opsomer; Gretchen G. Moisen

    2012-01-01

    Post-stratification is used in survey statistics as a method to improve variance estimates. In traditional post-stratification methods, the variable on which the data is being stratified must be known at the population level. In many cases this is not possible, but it is possible to use a model to predict values using covariates, and then stratify on these predicted...

  12. Cell line with endogenous EGFRvIII expression is a suitable model for research and drug development purposes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Wojciech J; Rosiak, Kamila; Siejka, Paulina; Peciak, Joanna; Popeda, Marta; Banaszczyk, Mateusz; Pawlowska, Roza; Treda, Cezary; Hulas-Bigoszewska, Krystyna; Piaskowski, Sylwester; Stoczynska-Fidelus, Ewelina; Rieske, Piotr

    2016-05-31

    Glioblastoma is the most common and malignant brain tumor, characterized by high cellular heterogeneity. About 50% of glioblastomas are positive for EGFR amplification, half of which express accompanying EGFR mutation, encoding truncated and constitutively active receptor termed EGFRvIII. Currently, no cell models suitable for development of EGFRvIII-targeting drugs exist, while the available ones lack the intratumoral heterogeneity or extrachromosomal nature of EGFRvIII.The reports regarding the biology of EGFRvIII expressed in the stable cell lines are often contradictory in observations and conclusions. In the present study, we use DK-MG cell line carrying endogenous non-modified EGFRvIII amplicons and derive a sub-line that is near depleted of amplicons, whilst remaining identical on the chromosomal level. By direct comparison of the two lines, we demonstrate positive effects of EGFRvIII on cell invasiveness and populational growth as a result of elevated cell survival but not proliferation rate. Investigation of the PI3K/Akt indicated no differences between the lines, whilst NFκB pathway was over-active in the line strongly expressing EGFRvIII, finding further supported by the effects of NFκB pathway specific inhibitors. Taken together, these results confirm the important role of EGFRvIII in intrinsic and extrinsic regulation of tumor behavior. Moreover, the proposed models are stable, making them suitable for research purposes as well as drug development process utilizing high throughput approach.

  13. Incorporation of the capillary hysteresis model HYSTR into the numerical code TOUGH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niemi, A.; Bodvarsson, G.S.; Pruess, K.

    1991-11-01

    As part of the work performed to model flow in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain Nevada, a capillary hysteresis model has been developed. The computer program HYSTR has been developed to compute the hysteretic capillary pressure -- liquid saturation relationship through interpolation of tabulated data. The code can be easily incorporated into any numerical unsaturated flow simulator. A complete description of HYSTR, including a brief summary of the previous hysteresis literature, detailed description of the program, and instructions for its incorporation into a numerical simulator are given in the HYSTR user's manual (Niemi and Bodvarsson, 1991a). This report describes the incorporation of HYSTR into the numerical code TOUGH (Transport of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat; Pruess, 1986). The changes made and procedures for the use of TOUGH for hysteresis modeling are documented

  14. Final Technical Report: "Representing Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Policy Models: General Equilibrium Approaches"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ian Sue Wing

    2006-04-18

    The research supported by this award pursued three lines of inquiry: (1) The construction of dynamic general equilibrium models to simulate the accumulation and substitution of knowledge, which has resulted in the preparation and submission of several papers: (a) A submitted pedagogic paper which clarifies the structure and operation of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (C.2), and a review article in press which develops a taxonomy for understanding the representation of technical change in economic and engineering models for climate policy analysis (B.3). (b) A paper which models knowledge directly as a homogeneous factor, and demonstrates that inter-sectoral reallocation of knowledge is the key margin of adjustment which enables induced technical change to lower the costs of climate policy (C.1). (c) An empirical paper which estimates the contribution of embodied knowledge to aggregate energy intensity in the U.S. (C.3), followed by a companion article which embeds these results within a CGE model to understand the degree to which autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) is attributable to technical change as opposed to sub-sectoral shifts in industrial composition (C.4) (d) Finally, ongoing theoretical work to characterize the precursors and implications of the response of innovation to emission limits (E.2). (2) Data development and simulation modeling to understand how the characteristics of discrete energy supply technologies determine their succession in response to emission limits when they are embedded within a general equilibrium framework. This work has produced two peer-reviewed articles which are currently in press (B.1 and B.2). (3) Empirical investigation of trade as an avenue for the transmission of technological change to developing countries, and its implications for leakage, which has resulted in an econometric study which is being revised for submission to a journal (E.1). As work commenced on this topic, the U.S. withdrawal

  15. Endogenous Reactivity in a Dynamic Model of Consumer’s Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad K. Naimzada

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We move from a boundedly rational consumer model (Naimzada and Tramontana, 2008, 2010 characterized by a gradient-like decisional process in which, under particular parameters conditions, the asymptotical convergence to the optimal choice does not happen but it does under a least squared learning mechanism. In the present paper, we prove that even a less sophisticated learning mechanism leads to convergence to the rational choice and also prove that convergence is ensured when both learning mechanisms are available. The stability results that we obtain give more strength to the rational behavior assumption of the original model; in fact, the less demanding is the learning mechanism ensuring convergence to the rational behavior, the higher is the probability that even quite naive consumers will learn the composition of their optimum consumption bundles.

  16. Varying Coefficient Panel Data Model in the Presence of Endogenous Selectivity and Fixed Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Malikov, Emir; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Sun, Yiguo

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers a flexible panel data sample selection model in which (i) the outcome equation is permitted to take a semiparametric, varying coefficient form to capture potential parameter heterogeneity in the relationship of interest, (ii) both the outcome and (parametric) selection equations contain unobserved fixed effects and (iii) selection is generalized to a polychotomous case. We propose a two-stage estimator. Given consistent parameter estimates from the selection equation obta...

  17. Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model

    OpenAIRE

    Michael B. Devereux; Charles Engel

    2001-01-01

    Many papers in the recent literature in open economy macroeconomics make different assumptions about the currency in which firms set their export prices when nominal prices must be pre-set. But to date, all of these studies take the currency of price setting as exogenous. This paper sets up a simple two-country general equilibrium model in which exporting firms can choose the currency in which they set prices for sales to foreign markets. We make two alternative assumptions about the structur...

  18. Flexibility of wages and macroeconomic instability in an agent-based computational model with endogenous money

    OpenAIRE

    Pascal Seppecher

    2010-01-01

    This article has been published in a revised form in Macroeconomic Dynamics [http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1365100511000447]. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works.; International audience; We present a model of a dynamic and complex economy in which the creation and the destruction of money result from interactions between multiple and heterogeneous agents. In the baseline scenario, we observe t...

  19. Fashion cycle dynamics in a model with endogenous discrete evolution of heterogeneous preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naimzada, A. K.; Pireddu, M.

    2018-05-01

    We propose a discrete-time exchange economy evolutionary model, in which two groups of agents are characterized by different preference structures. The reproduction level of a group is related to its attractiveness degree, which depends on the social visibility level, determined by the consumption choices of the agents in that group. The attractiveness of a group is initially increasing with its visibility level, but it becomes decreasing when its visibility exceeds a given threshold value, due to a congestion effect. Thanks to the combined action of the price mechanism and of the share updating rule, the model is able to reproduce the recurrent dynamic behavior typical of the fashion cycle, presenting booms and busts both in the agents' consumption choices and in the population shares. More precisely, we investigate the existence of equilibria and their stability, and we perform a qualitative bifurcation analysis on varying the parameter describing the group's heterogeneity degree. From a global viewpoint, we detect, among others, multistability phenomena in which the group coexistence is dynamic, either regular or irregular, and the fashion cycle occurs. The existence of complex dynamics is proven via the method of the turbulent maps, working with homoclinic orbits. Finally, we provide a social and economic interpretation of the main scenarios.

  20. Energy levies and endogenous technology in an empirical simulation model for the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Butter, F.A.G.; Dellink, R.B.; Hofkes, M.W.

    1995-01-01

    The belief in beneficial green tax swaps has been particularly prevalent in Europe, where high levels of unemployment and strong preferences for a large public sector (and hence high tax levels) accentuate the desire for revenue-neutral, growth-enhancing reductions in labor income taxes. In this context an empirical simulation model is developed for the Netherlands, especially designed to reckon with the effects of changes in prices on the level and direction of technological progress. It appears that the so-called employment double dividend, i.e. increasing employment and decreasing energy use at the same time, can occur. A general levy yields stronger effects than a levy on household use only. However, the stronger effects of a general levy on employment and energy use are accompanied by shrinking production and, in the longer run, by decreasing disposable income of workers or non-workers. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 1 appendix, 20 refs

  1. Simulation of Forest Carbon Fluxes Using Model Incorporation and Data Assimilation

    OpenAIRE

    Min Yan; Xin Tian; Zengyuan Li; Erxue Chen; Xufeng Wang; Zongtao Han; Hong Sun

    2016-01-01

    This study improved simulation of forest carbon fluxes in the Changbai Mountains with a process-based model (Biome-BGC) using incorporation and data assimilation. Firstly, the original remote sensing-based MODIS MOD_17 GPP (MOD_17) model was optimized using refined input data and biome-specific parameters. The key ecophysiological parameters of the Biome-BGC model were determined through the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) sensitivity analysis. Then the optimized MOD_17 mo...

  2. ENDOGENEITY OF INDONESIAN MONEY SUPPLY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meutia Safrina Rachma

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available There has been a long debate about the endogeneity of money supply. The main objective of this article is to identify whether money supply in Indonesia is an exogenous or an endogenous variable. Using a Vector Autoregressive model and monthly data 1997(5-2010(6, the estimation result shows that money supply in Indonesia is an endogenous variable. The movement of broad money supply does influence the movement of base money and Consumer Price Index. Consequently, the central bank does not have control power on money supply. The bank is only able to maintain the stability and control the movement of broad money supply. Keywords: Endogenous variable, money supply, vector autoregressionJEL classification numbers: E51, E52, E58

  3. The Naïve Murine Cornea as a Model System to Identify Novel Endogenous Regulators of Lymphangiogenesis: TRAIL and rtPA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regenfuß, Birgit; Dreisow, Marie-Luise; Hos, Deniz; Masli, Sharmila; Bock, Felix; Cursiefen, Claus

    2015-06-01

    In the murine cornea, which is an established model for analyzing pathologic lymphatic vessel growth, phenotypic heterogeneity of the endogenous lymphatic vessels in the limbus of the cornea was previously described. In this study, the cornea of BALB/c, C57BL/6, and FVB mice with different limbal lymphangiogenic phenotypes was analyzed to identify novel candidates potentially influencing lymphatic vessel growth. Pathway specific expression analysis of the cornea was performed to identify novel candidate genes. Corneal protein expression of the respective candidates was analyzed by fluorescent immunohistochemistry. The effect of the candidates on proliferation of human dermal lymphatic endothelial cells (HDLECs) was analyzed by BrdU proliferation ELISA. Thirteen genes were differentially regulated in corneas of mouse strains with more endogenous limbal lymphatic vessels (high-lymphangiogenic) (C57BL/6) compared to mouse strains with less endogenous limbal lymphatic vessels (low-lymphangiogenic) (BALB/c, FVB). Two candidates, Tumor necrosis factor (ligand) superfamily member 10 (Tnfsf10/Trail) and Plasminogen activator, tissue (Plat/tPA) were expressed in the cornea of BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice on the protein level. In vitro, Trail and recombinant tPA inhibited the proliferation of human dermal lymphatic endothelial cells. Molecular analysis of the naive cornea in mouse strains with different limbal lymphatic phenotypes is a valuable model to identify novel endogenous regulators of lymphangiogenesis.

  4. Endogeneity, Time-Varying Coefficients, and Incorrect vs. Correct Ways of Specifying the Error Terms of Econometric Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.A.V.B. Swamy

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Using the net effect of all relevant regressors omitted from a model to form its error term is incorrect because the coefficients and error term of such a model are non-unique. Non-unique coefficients cannot possess consistent estimators. Uniqueness can be achieved if; instead; one uses certain “sufficient sets” of (relevant regressors omitted from each model to represent the error term. In this case; the unique coefficient on any non-constant regressor takes the form of the sum of a bias-free component and omitted-regressor biases. Measurement-error bias can also be incorporated into this sum. We show that if our procedures are followed; accurate estimation of bias-free components is possible.

  5. Incorporation of composite defects from ultrasonic NDE into CAD and FE models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bingol, Onur Rauf; Schiefelbein, Bryan; Grandin, Robert J.; Holland, Stephen D.; Krishnamurthy, Adarsh

    2017-02-01

    Fiber-reinforced composites are widely used in aerospace industry due to their combined properties of high strength and low weight. However, owing to their complex structure, it is difficult to assess the impact of manufacturing defects and service damage on their residual life. While, ultrasonic testing (UT) is the preferred NDE method to identify the presence of defects in composites, there are no reasonable ways to model the damage and evaluate the structural integrity of composites. We have developed an automated framework to incorporate flaws and known composite damage automatically into a finite element analysis (FEA) model of composites, ultimately aiding in accessing the residual life of composites and make informed decisions regarding repairs. The framework can be used to generate a layer-by-layer 3D structural CAD model of the composite laminates replicating their manufacturing process. Outlines of structural defects, such as delaminations, are automatically detected from UT of the laminate and are incorporated into the CAD model between the appropriate layers. In addition, the framework allows for direct structural analysis of the resulting 3D CAD models with defects by automatically applying the appropriate boundary conditions. In this paper, we show a working proof-of-concept for the composite model builder with capabilities of incorporating delaminations between laminate layers and automatically preparing the CAD model for structural analysis using a FEA software.

  6. Cyclosporin A-Mediated Activation of Endogenous Neural Precursor Cells Promotes Cognitive Recovery in a Mouse Model of Stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Labeeba Nusrat

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive dysfunction following stroke significantly impacts quality of life and functional independance; yet, despite the prevalence and negative impact of cognitive deficits, post-stroke interventions almost exclusively target motor impairments. As a result, current treatment options are limited in their ability to promote post-stroke cognitive recovery. Cyclosporin A (CsA has been previously shown to improve post-stroke functional recovery of sensorimotor deficits. Interestingly, CsA is a commonly used immunosuppressant and also acts directly on endogenous neural precursor cells (NPCs in the neurogenic regions of the brain (the periventricular region and the dentate gyrus. The immunosuppressive and NPC activation effects are mediated by calcineurin-dependent and calcineurin-independent pathways, respectively. To develop a cognitive stroke model, focal bilateral lesions were induced in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC of adult mice using endothelin-1. First, we characterized this stroke model in the acute and chronic phase, using problem-solving and memory-based cognitive tests. mPFC stroke resulted in early and persistent deficits in short-term memory, problem-solving and behavioral flexibility, without affecting anxiety. Second, we investigated the effects of acute and chronic CsA treatment on NPC activation, neuroprotection, and tissue damage. Acute CsA administration post-stroke increased the size of the NPC pool. There was no effect on neurodegeneration or lesion volume. Lastly, we looked at the effects of chronic CsA treatment on cognitive recovery. Long-term CsA administration promoted NPC migration toward the lesion site and rescued cognitive deficits to control levels. This study demonstrates that CsA treatment activates the NPC population, promotes migration of NPCs to the site of injury, and leads to improved cognitive recovery following long-term treatment.

  7. Endogenous PGI2 signaling through IP inhibits neutrophilic lung inflammation in LPS-induced acute lung injury mice model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toki, Shinji; Zhou, Weisong; Goleniewska, Kasia; Reiss, Sara; Dulek, Daniel E; Newcomb, Dawn C; Lawson, William E; Peebles, R Stokes

    2018-04-13

    Endogenous prostaglandin I 2 (PGI 2 ) has inhibitory effects on immune responses against pathogens or allergens; however, the immunomodulatory activity of endogenous PGI 2 signaling in endotoxin-induced inflammation is unknown. To test the hypothesis that endogenous PGI 2 down-regulates endotoxin-induced lung inflammation, C57BL/6 wild type (WT) and PGI 2 receptor (IP) KO mice were challenged intranasally with LPS. Urine 6-keto-PGF 1α , a stable metabolite of PGI 2, was significantly increased following the LPS-challenge, suggesting that endogenous PGI 2 signaling modulates the host response to LPS-challenge. IPKO mice had a significant increase in neutrophils in the BAL fluid as well as increased proteins of KC, LIX, and TNF-α in lung homogenates compared with WT mice. In contrast, IL-10 was decreased in LPS-challenged IPKO mice compared with WT mice. The PGI 2 analog cicaprost significantly decreased LPS-induced KC, and TNF-α, but increased IL-10 and AREG in bone marrow-derived dendritic cells (BMDCs) and bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMMs) compared with vehicle-treatment. These results indicated that endogenous PGI 2 signaling attenuated neutrophilic lung inflammation through the reduced inflammatory cytokine and chemokine and enhanced IL-10. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. Incorporating Social Anxiety Into a Model of College Problem Drinking: Replication and Extension

    OpenAIRE

    Ham, Lindsay S.; Hope, Debra A.

    2006-01-01

    Although research has found an association between social anxiety and alcohol use in noncollege samples, results have been mixed for college samples. College students face many novel social situations in which they may drink to reduce social anxiety. In the current study, the authors tested a model of college problem drinking, incorporating social anxiety and related psychosocial variables among 228 undergraduate volunteers. According to structural equation modeling (SEM) results, social anxi...

  9. PWR plant operator training used full scope simulator incorporated MAAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Y.; Tabuchi, T.; Yamashita, T.; Komatsu, Y.; Tsubouchi, K.; Banka, T.; Mochizuki, T.; Nishimura, K.; Iizuka, H.

    2015-01-01

    NTC makes an effort with the understanding of plant behavior of core damage accident as part of our advanced training. For the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, we introduced the MAAP model into PWR operator training full scope simulator and also made the Severe Accident Visual Display unit. From 2014, we will introduce new training program for a core damage accident with PWR operator training full scope simulator incorporated the MAAP model and the Severe Accident Visual Display unit. (author)

  10. INCORPORATING MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES IN PLANNING MODELS OF LOW-RESOURCE FARMERS

    OpenAIRE

    Flinn, John C.; Jayasuriya, Sisira; Knight, C. Gregory

    1980-01-01

    Linear goal programming provides a means of formally incorporating the multiple goals of a household into the analysis of farming systems. Using this approach, the set of plans which come as close as possible to achieving a set of desired goals under conditions of land and cash scarcity are derived for a Filipino tenant farmer. A challenge in making LGP models empirically operational is the accurate definition of the goals of the farm household being modelled.

  11. Endogenous Lunar Volatiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCubbin, F. M.; Liu, Y.; Barnes, J. J.; Anand, M.; Boyce, J. W.; Burney, D.; Day, J. M. D.; Elardo, S. M.; Hui, H.; Klima, R. L.; Magna, T.; Ni, P.; Steenstra, E.; Tartèse, R.; Vander Kaaden, K. E.

    2018-04-01

    This abstract discusses numerous outstanding questions on the topic of endogenous lunar volatiles that will need to be addressed in the coming years. Although substantial insights into endogenous lunar volatiles have been gained, more work remains.

  12. A climatological model for risk computations incorporating site- specific dry deposition influences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Droppo, J.G. Jr.

    1991-07-01

    A gradient-flux dry deposition module was developed for use in a climatological atmospheric transport model, the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS). The atmospheric pathway model computes long-term average contaminant air concentration and surface deposition patterns surrounding a potential release site incorporating location-specific dry deposition influences. Gradient-flux formulations are used to incorporate site and regional data in the dry deposition module for this atmospheric sector-average climatological model. Application of these formulations provide an effective means of accounting for local surface roughness in deposition computations. Linkage to a risk computation module resulted in a need for separate regional and specific surface deposition computations. 13 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  13. Evaluation of efficacy of prion reduction filters using blood from an endogenously infected 263K scrapie hamster model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Neil P; Nugent, Philip; Dixon, Douglas; Dennis, Mike; Cornwall, Mark; Mallinson, Gary; Watkins, Nicholas; Thomas, Stephen; Sutton, J Mark

    2015-10-01

    The P-Capt prion reduction filter (MacoPharma) removes prion infectivity in model systems. This independent evaluation assesses prion removal from endogenously infected animal blood, using CE-marked P-Capt filters, and replicates the proposed use of the filter within the UK Blood Services. Two units of blood, generated from 263K scrapie-infected hamsters, were processed using leukoreduction filters (LXT-quadruple, MacoPharma). Approximately 100 mL of the removed plasma was added back to the red blood cells (RBCs) and the blood was filtered through a P-Capt filter. Samples of unfiltered whole blood, the prion filter input (RBCs plus plasma and SAGM [RBCPS]), and prion-filtered leukoreduced blood (PFB) were injected intracranially into hamsters. Clinical symptoms were monitored for 500 ± 1 day, and brains were assessed for spongiosis and prion protein deposit. In Filtration Run 1, none of the 50 challenged animals were diagnosed with scrapie after inoculation with the RBCPS fraction, while two of 190 hamsters injected with PFB were infected. In Filtration Run 2, one of 49 animals injected with RBCPS and two of 193 hamsters injected with PFB were infected. Run 1 reduced the infectious dose (ID) by 1.467 log (>1.187 log and <0.280 log for leukoreduction and prion filtration, respectively). Run 2 reduced prion infectivity by 1.424 log (1.127 and 0.297 log, respectively). Residual infectivity was estimated at 0.212 ± 0.149 IDs/mL (Run 1) and 0.208 ± 0.147 IDs/mL (Run 2). Leukoreduction removed the majority of infectivity from 263K scrapie hamster blood. The P-Capt filter removed a proportion of the remaining infectivity, but residual infectivity was observed in two independent processes. © 2015 AABB.

  14. Vaccination directed against the human endogenous retrovirus-K envelope protein inhibits tumor growth in a murine model system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Benjamin; Fischer, Katrin; Büchner, Sarah M; Wels, Winfried S; Löwer, Roswitha; Sliva, Katja; Schnierle, Barbara S

    2013-01-01

    Human endogenous retrovirus (HERV) genomes are chromosomally integrated in all cells of an individual. They are normally transcriptionally silenced and transmitted only vertically. Enhanced expression of HERV-K accompanied by the emergence of anti-HERV-K-directed immune responses has been observed in tumor patients and HIV-infected individuals. As HERV-K is usually not expressed and immunological tolerance development is unlikely, it is an appropriate target for the development of immunotherapies. We generated a recombinant vaccinia virus (MVA-HKenv) expressing the HERV-K envelope glycoprotein (ENV), based on the modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA), and established an animal model to test its vaccination efficacy. Murine renal carcinoma cells (Renca) were genetically altered to express E. coli beta-galactosidase (RLZ cells) or the HERV-K ENV gene (RLZ-HKenv cells). Intravenous injection of RLZ-HKenv cells into syngenic BALB/c mice led to the formation of pulmonary metastases, which were detectable by X-gal staining. A single vaccination of tumor-bearing mice with MVA-HKenv drastically reduced the number of pulmonary RLZ-HKenv tumor nodules compared to vaccination with wild-type MVA. Prophylactic vaccination of mice with MVA-HKenv precluded the formation of RLZ-HKenv tumor nodules, whereas wild-type MVA-vaccinated animals succumbed to metastasis. Protection from tumor formation correlated with enhanced HERV-K ENV-specific killing activity of splenocytes. These data demonstrate for the first time that HERV-K ENV is a useful target for vaccine development and might offer new treatment opportunities for diverse types of cancer.

  15. In silico investigation of the short QT syndrome, using human ventricle models incorporating electromechanical coupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismail eAdeniran

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Genetic forms of the Short QT Syndrome (SQTS arise due to cardiac ion channel mutations leading to accelerated ventricular repolarisation, arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Results from experimental and simulation studies suggest that changes to refractoriness and tissue vulnerability produce a substrate favourable to re-entry. Potential electromechanical consequences of the SQTS are less well understood. The aim of this study was to utilize electromechanically coupled human ventricle models to explore electromechanical consequences of the SQTS. Methods and results: The Rice et al. mechanical model was coupled to the ten Tusscher et al. ventricular cell model. Previously validated K+ channel formulations for SQT variants 1 and 3 were incorporated. Functional effects of the SQTS mutations on transients, sarcomere length shortening and contractile force at the single cell level were evaluated with and without the consideration of stretch activated channel current (Isac. Without Isac, the SQTS mutations produced dramatic reductions in the amplitude of transients, sarcomere length shortening and contractile force. When Isac was incorporated, there was a considerable attenuation of the effects of SQTS-associated action potential shortening on Ca2+ transients, sarcomere shortening and contractile force. Single cell models were then incorporated into 3D human ventricular tissue models. The timing of maximum deformation was delayed in the SQTS setting compared to control. Conclusion: The incorporation of Isac appears to be an important consideration in modelling functional effects of SQT 1 and 3 mutations on cardiac electro-mechanical coupling. Whilst there is little evidence of profoundly impaired cardiac contractile function in SQTS patients, our 3D simulations correlate qualitatively with reported evidence for dissociation between ventricular repolarization and the end of mechanical systole.

  16. Effects of leukemia inhibitory factor and basic fibroblast growth factor on free radicals and endogenous stem cell proliferation in a mouse model of cerebral infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Weihui; Li, Yadan; Lin, Yufeng; Ye, Xue; Zang, Dawei

    2012-07-05

    The present study established a mouse model of cerebral infarction by middle cerebral artery occlusion, and monitored the effect of 25 μg/kg leukemia inhibitory factor and (or) basic fibroblast growth factor administration 2 hours after model establishment. Results showed that following administration, the number of endogenous neural stem cells in the infarct area significantly increased, malondialdehyde content in brain tissue homogenates significantly decreased, nitric oxide content, glutathione peroxidase and superoxide dismutase activity significantly elevated, and mouse motor function significantly improved as confirmed by the rotarod and bar grab tests. In particular, the effect of leukemia inhibitory factor in combination with basic fibroblast growth factor was the most significant. Results indicate that leukemia inhibitory factor and basic fibroblast growth factor can improve the microenvironment after cerebral infarction by altering free radical levels, improving the quantity of endogenous neural stem cells, and promoting neurological function of mice with cerebral infarction.

  17. Improving Watershed-Scale Hydrodynamic Models by Incorporating Synthetic 3D River Bathymetry Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, S.; Saksena, S.; Merwade, V.

    2017-12-01

    Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) have an incomplete representation of river bathymetry, which is critical for simulating river hydrodynamics in flood modeling. Generally, DEMs are augmented with field collected bathymetry data, but such data are available only at individual reaches. Creating a hydrodynamic model covering an entire stream network in the basin requires bathymetry for all streams. This study extends a conceptual bathymetry model, River Channel Morphology Model (RCMM), to estimate the bathymetry for an entire stream network for application in hydrodynamic modeling using a DEM. It is implemented at two large watersheds with different relief and land use characterizations: coastal Guadalupe River basin in Texas with flat terrain and a relatively urban White River basin in Indiana with more relief. After bathymetry incorporation, both watersheds are modeled using HEC-RAS (1D hydraulic model) and Interconnected Pond and Channel Routing (ICPR), a 2-D integrated hydrologic and hydraulic model. A comparison of the streamflow estimated by ICPR at the outlet of the basins indicates that incorporating bathymetry influences streamflow estimates. The inundation maps show that bathymetry has a higher impact on flat terrains of Guadalupe River basin when compared to the White River basin.

  18. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-08-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate

  19. Making a difference: incorporating theories of autonomy into models of informed consent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delany, C

    2008-09-01

    Obtaining patients' informed consent is an ethical and legal obligation in healthcare practice. Whilst the law provides prescriptive rules and guidelines, ethical theories of autonomy provide moral foundations. Models of practice of consent, have been developed in the bioethical literature to assist in understanding and integrating the ethical theory of autonomy and legal obligations into the clinical process of obtaining a patient's informed consent to treatment. To review four models of consent and analyse the way each model incorporates the ethical meaning of autonomy and how, as a consequence, they might change the actual communicative process of obtaining informed consent within clinical contexts. An iceberg framework of consent is used to conceptualise how ethical theories of autonomy are positioned and underpin the above surface, and visible clinical communication, including associated legal guidelines and ethical rules. Each model of consent is critically reviewed from the perspective of how it might shape the process of informed consent. All four models would alter the process of obtaining consent. Two models provide structure and guidelines for the content and timing of obtaining patients' consent. The two other models rely on an attitudinal shift in clinicians. They provide ideas for consent by focusing on underlying values, attitudes and meaning associated with the ethical meaning of autonomy. The paper concludes that models of practice that explicitly incorporate the underlying ethical meaning of autonomy as their basis, provide less prescriptive, but more theoretically rich guidance for healthcare communicative practices.

  20. Incorporation of human factors into ship collision risk models focusing on human centred design aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sotiralis, P.; Ventikos, N.P.; Hamann, R.; Golyshev, P.; Teixeira, A.P.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an approach that more adequately incorporates human factor considerations into quantitative risk analysis of ship operation. The focus is on the collision accident category, which is one of the main risk contributors in ship operation. The approach is based on the development of a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates elements from the Technique for Retrospective and Predictive Analysis of Cognitive Errors (TRACEr) and focuses on the calculation of the collision accident probability due to human error. The model takes into account the human performance in normal, abnormal and critical operational conditions and implements specific tasks derived from the analysis of the task errors leading to the collision accident category. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most important contributors to human performance and ship collision. Finally, the model developed is applied to assess the collision risk of a feeder operating in Dover strait using the collision probability estimated by the developed BN model and an Event tree model for calculation of human, economic and environmental risks. - Highlights: • A collision risk model for the incorporation of human factors into quantitative risk analysis is proposed. • The model takes into account the human performance in different operational conditions leading to the collision. • The most important contributors to human performance and ship collision are identified. • The model developed is applied to assess the collision risk of a feeder operating in Dover strait.

  1. Modeling fraud detection and the incorporation of forensic specialists in the audit process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakalauskaite, Dominyka

    Financial statement audits are still comparatively poor in fraud detection. Forensic specialists can play a significant role in increasing audit quality. In this paper, based on prior academic research, I develop a model of fraud detection and the incorporation of forensic specialists in the audit...... process. The intention of the model is to identify the reasons why the audit is weak in fraud detection and to provide the analytical framework to assess whether the incorporation of forensic specialists can help to improve it. The results show that such specialists can potentially improve the fraud...... detection in the audit, but might also cause some negative implications. Overall, even though fraud detection is one of the main topics in research there are very few studies done on the subject of how auditors co-operate with forensic specialists. Thus, the paper concludes with suggestions for further...

  2. Gold Incorporated Mesoporous Silica Thin Film Model Surface as a Robust SERS and Catalytically Active Substrate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anandakumari Chandrasekharan Sunil Sekhar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Ultra-small gold nanoparticles incorporated in mesoporous silica thin films with accessible pore channels perpendicular to the substrate are prepared by a modified sol-gel method. The simple and easy spin coating technique is applied here to make homogeneous thin films. The surface characterization using FESEM shows crack-free films with a perpendicular pore arrangement. The applicability of these thin films as catalysts as well as a robust SERS active substrate for model catalysis study is tested. Compared to bare silica film our gold incorporated silica, GSM-23F gave an enhancement factor of 103 for RhB with a laser source 633 nm. The reduction reaction of p-nitrophenol with sodium borohydride from our thin films shows a decrease in peak intensity corresponding to –NO2 group as time proceeds, confirming the catalytic activity. Such model surfaces can potentially bridge the material gap between a real catalytic system and surface science studies.

  3. Who influenced inflation persistence in China? A comparative analysis of the standard CIA model and CIA model with endogenous money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liao Ying

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the influencing factors of inflation persistence in China’s economy using the DSGE approach. Two monetary DSGE models are estimated, namely, a standard CIA model and a CIA model with a Taylor rule. This article uses the Bayesian method to estimate the model, and the estimated and inferred results are credible due to the Markov chain reaching convergence. The results show that the augmented model outperforms the standard CIA model in terms of capturing inflation persistence. Further studies show that inflation persistence mainly comes from the persistence of the money supply, while money supply uncertainty, the reaction coefficient of monetary growth to productivity, productivity persistence and productivity uncertainty have a smaller impact on inflation persistence. Changes of monetary policy have little effect on inflation persistence.

  4. Activated sludge mass reduction and biodegradability of the endogenous residues by digestion under different aerobic to anaerobic conditions: Comparison and modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-García, C G; Fall, C; Olguín, M T

    2016-03-01

    This study was performed to identify suitable conditions for the in-situ reduction of excess sludge production by intercalated digesters in recycle-activated sludge (RAS) flow. The objective was to compare and model biological sludge mass reduction and the biodegradation of endogenous residues (XP) by digestion under hypoxic, aerobic, anaerobic, and five intermittent-aeration conditions. A mathematical model based on the heterotrophic endogenous decay constant (bH) and including the biodegradation of XP was used to fit the long-term data from the digesters to identify and estimate the parameters. Both the bH constant (0.02-0.05 d(-1)) and the endogenous residue biodegradation constant (bP, 0.001-0.004 d(-1)) were determined across the different mediums. The digesters with intermittent aeration cycles of 12 h-12 h and 5 min-3 h (ON/OFF) were the fastest, compared to the aerobic reactor. The study provides a basis for rating RAS-digester volumes to avoid the accumulation of XP in aeration tanks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Combination of exogenous cell transplantation and 5-HT4 receptor agonism induce endogenous enteric neural crest-derived cells in a rat hypoganglionosis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hui; Zheng, Bai-Jun; Pan, Wei-Kang; Wang, Huai-Jie; Xie, Chong; Zhao, Yu-Ying; Chen, Xin-Lin; Liu, Yong; Gao, Ya

    2017-02-01

    Enteric neural crest-derived cells (ENCCs) can migrate into endogenous ganglia and differentiate into progeny cells, and have even partially rescued bowel function; however, poor reliability and limited functional recovery after ENCC transplantation have yet to be addressed. Here, we investigated the induction of endogenous ENCCs by combining exogenous ENCC transplantation with a 5-HT 4 receptor agonist mosapride in a rat model of hypoganglionosis, established by benzalkonium chloride treatment. ENCCs, isolated from the gut of newborn rats, were labeled with a lentiviral eGFP reporter. ENCCs and rats were treated with the 5-HT 4 receptor agonist/antagonist. The labeled ENCCs were then transplanted into the muscular layer of benzalkonium chloride-treated colons. At given days post-intervention, colonic tissue samples were removed for histological analysis. ENCCs and neurons were detected by eGFP expression and immunoreactivity to p75 NTR and peripherin, respectively. eGFP-positive ENCCs and neurons could survive and maintain levels of fluorescence after transplantation. With longer times post-intervention, the number of peripherin-positive cells gradually increased in all groups. Significantly more peripherin-positive cells were found following ENCCs plus mosapride treatment, compared with the other groups. These results show that exogenous ENCCs combined with the 5-HT 4 receptor agonist effectively induced endogenous ENCCs proliferation and differentiation in a rat hypoganglionosis model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Incorporation of stochastic engineering models as prior information in Bayesian medical device trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddad, Tarek; Himes, Adam; Thompson, Laura; Irony, Telba; Nair, Rajesh

    2017-01-01

    Evaluation of medical devices via clinical trial is often a necessary step in the process of bringing a new product to market. In recent years, device manufacturers are increasingly using stochastic engineering models during the product development process. These models have the capability to simulate virtual patient outcomes. This article presents a novel method based on the power prior for augmenting a clinical trial using virtual patient data. To properly inform clinical evaluation, the virtual patient model must simulate the clinical outcome of interest, incorporating patient variability, as well as the uncertainty in the engineering model and in its input parameters. The number of virtual patients is controlled by a discount function which uses the similarity between modeled and observed data. This method is illustrated by a case study of cardiac lead fracture. Different discount functions are used to cover a wide range of scenarios in which the type I error rates and power vary for the same number of enrolled patients. Incorporation of engineering models as prior knowledge in a Bayesian clinical trial design can provide benefits of decreased sample size and trial length while still controlling type I error rate and power.

  7. Fingerprints of endogenous process on Europa through linear spectral modeling of ground-based observations (ESO/VLT/SINFONI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ligier, Nicolas; Carter, John; Poulet, François; Langevin, Yves; Dumas, Christophe; Gourgeot, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Jupiter's moon Europa harbors a very young surface dated, based on cratering rates, to 10-50 M.y (Zahnle et al. 1998, Pappalardo et al. 1999). This young age implies rapid surface recycling and reprocessing, partially engendered by a global salty subsurface liquid ocean that could result in tectonic activity (Schmidt et al. 2011, Kattenhorn et al. 2014) and active plumes (Roth et al. 2014). The surface of Europa should contain important clues about the composition of this sub-surface briny ocean and about the potential presence of material of exobiological interest in it, thus reinforcing Europa as a major target of interest for upcoming space missions such as the ESA L-class mission JUICE. To perform the investigation of the composition of the surface of Europa, a global mapping campaign of the satellite was performed between October 2011 and January 2012 with the integral field spectrograph SINFONI on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) in Chile. The high spectral binning of this instrument (0.5 nm) is suitable to detect any narrow mineral signature in the wavelength range 1.45-2.45 μm. The spatially resolved spectra we obtained over five epochs nearly cover the entire surface of Europa with a pixel scale of 12.5 by 25 m.a.s (~35 by 70 km on Europa's surface), thus permitting a global scale study. Until recently, a large majority of studies only proposed sulfate salts along with sulfuric acid hydrate and water-ice to be present on Europa's surface. However, recent works based on Europa's surface coloration in the visible wavelength range and NIR spectral analysis support the hypothesis of the predominance of chlorine salts instead of sulfate salts (Hand & Carlson 2015, Fischer et al. 2015). Our linear spectral modeling supports this new hypothesis insofar as the use of Mg-bearing chlorines improved the fits whatever the region. As expected, the distribution of sulfuric acid hydrate is correlated to the Iogenic sulfur ion implantation flux distribution (Hendrix et al

  8. A code reviewer assignment model incorporating the competence differences and participant preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yanqing

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A good assignment of code reviewers can effectively utilize the intellectual resources, assure code quality and improve programmers’ skills in software development. However, little research on reviewer assignment of code review has been found. In this study, a code reviewer assignment model is created based on participants’ preference to reviewing assignment. With a constraint of the smallest size of a review group, the model is optimized to maximize review outcomes and avoid the negative impact of “mutual admiration society”. This study shows that the reviewer assignment strategies incorporating either the reviewers’ preferences or the authors’ preferences get much improvement than a random assignment. The strategy incorporating authors’ preference makes higher improvement than that incorporating reviewers’ preference. However, when the reviewers’ and authors’ preference matrixes are merged, the improvement becomes moderate. The study indicates that the majority of the participants have a strong wish to work with reviewers and authors having highest competence. If we want to satisfy the preference of both reviewers and authors at the same time, the overall improvement of learning outcomes may be not the best.

  9. Incorporation of Markov reliability models for digital instrumentation and control systems into existing PRAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucci, P.; Mangan, L. A.; Kirschenbaum, J.; Mandelli, D.; Aldemir, T.; Arndt, S. A.

    2006-01-01

    Markov models have the ability to capture the statistical dependence between failure events that can arise in the presence of complex dynamic interactions between components of digital instrumentation and control systems. One obstacle to the use of such models in an existing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is that most of the currently available PRA software is based on the static event-tree/fault-tree methodology which often cannot represent such interactions. We present an approach to the integration of Markov reliability models into existing PRAs by describing the Markov model of a digital steam generator feedwater level control system, how dynamic event trees (DETs) can be generated from the model, and how the DETs can be incorporated into an existing PRA with the SAPHIRE software. (authors)

  10. Global dynamics of a PDE model for aedes aegypti mosquitoe incorporating female sexual preference

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study the long time dynamics of a reaction diffusion system, describing the spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are the primary cause of dengue infection. The system incorporates a control attempt via the sterile insect technique. The model incorporates female mosquitoes sexual preference for wild males over sterile males. We show global existence of strong solution for the system. We then derive uniform estimates to prove the existence of a global attractor in L-2(Omega), for the system. The attractor is shown to be L-infinity(Omega) regular and posess state of extinction, if the injection of sterile males is large enough. We also provide upper bounds on the Hausdorff and fractal dimensions of the attractor.

  11. A Novel Approach of Understanding and Incorporating Error of Chemical Transport Models into a Geostatistical Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J.; Vizuete, W.; Serre, M. L.; Xu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The EPA employs a vast monitoring network to measure ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the United States with one of its goals being to quantify exposure within the population. However, there are several areas of the country with sparse monitoring spatially and temporally. One means to fill in these monitoring gaps is to use PM2.5 modeled estimates from Chemical Transport Models (CTMs) specifically the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. CMAQ is able to provide complete spatial coverage but is subject to systematic and random error due to model uncertainty. Due to the deterministic nature of CMAQ, often these uncertainties are not quantified. Much effort is employed to quantify the efficacy of these models through different metrics of model performance. Currently evaluation is specific to only locations with observed data. Multiyear studies across the United States are challenging because the error and model performance of CMAQ are not uniform over such large space/time domains. Error changes regionally and temporally. Because of the complex mix of species that constitute PM2.5, CMAQ error is also a function of increasing PM2.5 concentration. To address this issue we introduce a model performance evaluation for PM2.5 CMAQ that is regionalized and non-linear. This model performance evaluation leads to error quantification for each CMAQ grid. Areas and time periods of error being better qualified. The regionalized error correction approach is non-linear and is therefore more flexible at characterizing model performance than approaches that rely on linearity assumptions and assume homoscedasticity of CMAQ predictions errors. Corrected CMAQ data are then incorporated into the modern geostatistical framework of Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME). Through cross validation it is shown that incorporating error-corrected CMAQ data leads to more accurate estimates than just using observed data by themselves.

  12. Amelioration of cognitive, motor and endogenous defense functions with silymarin, piracetam and protocatechuic acid in the cerebral global ischemic rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muley, Milind M; Thakare, Vishnu N; Patil, Rajesh R; Bafna, Pallavi A; Naik, Suresh R

    2013-07-19

    The neuroprotective activities of silymarin, piracetam and protocatechuic acid ethyl ester (PCA) on cerebral global ischemic/reperfusion were evaluated in a rat model. A midline ventral incision was made in the throat region. The right and left common carotid arteries were located and a bilateral common carotid artery occlusion (BCCAO) was performed for 30min using atraumatic clamps followed by a 24h period of reperfusion. Neurological/behavioral functions (cognitive and motor), endogenous defense systems (lipid peroxidation, glutathione, catalase, and superoxide dismutase), reduced water content and infarct size and histopathological alterations were then studied. Silymarin and PCA treatments significantly improved cognitive, motor and endogenous defense functions, histopathological alterations, and, reduced both water content and infarct size compared to the vehicle-treated ischemic control group. Piracetam treatment improved neurological and histopathological alterations, reduced water content and infarct size, but failed to restore/prevent the impaired endogenous defense functions significantly. Silymarin showed better neuroprotection than piracetam and PCA in experimentally induced global ischemic/reperfusion and was able to facilitate mnemonic performance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Monopoly Insurance and Endogenous Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lagerlöf, Johan N. M.; Schottmüller, Christoph

    2018-01-01

    We study a monopoly insurance model with endogenous information acquisi- tion. Through a continuous effort choice, consumers can determine the precision of a privately observed signal that is informative about their accident risk. The equilibrium effort is, depending on parameter values, either...

  14. Endogenizing Prospect Theory's Reference Point

    OpenAIRE

    Ulrich Schmidt; Horst Zank

    2010-01-01

    In previous models of (cumulative) prospect theory reference-dependence of preferences is imposed beforehand and the location of the reference point is exogenously determined. This note provides a foundation of prospect theory, where reference-dependence is derived from preference conditions and a unique reference point arises endogenously.

  15. Modeling water scarcity over south Asia: Incorporating crop growth and irrigation models into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, Tara J.; Ines, Amor V. M.; Lall, Upmanu; Robertson, Andrew W.

    2013-04-01

    Large-scale hydrologic models, such as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, are used for a variety of studies, from drought monitoring to projecting the potential impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle decades in advance. The majority of these models simulates the natural hydrological cycle and neglects the effects of human activities such as irrigation, which can result in streamflow withdrawals and increased evapotranspiration. In some parts of the world, these activities do not significantly affect the hydrologic cycle, but this is not the case in south Asia where irrigated agriculture has a large water footprint. To address this gap, we incorporate a crop growth model and irrigation model into the VIC model in order to simulate the impacts of irrigated and rainfed agriculture on the hydrologic cycle over south Asia (Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basin and peninsular India). The crop growth model responds to climate signals, including temperature and water stress, to simulate the growth of maize, wheat, rice, and millet. For the primarily rainfed maize crop, the crop growth model shows good correlation with observed All-India yields (0.7) with lower correlations for the irrigated wheat and rice crops (0.4). The difference in correlation is because irrigation provides a buffer against climate conditions, so that rainfed crop growth is more tied to climate than irrigated crop growth. The irrigation water demands induce hydrologic water stress in significant parts of the region, particularly in the Indus, with the streamflow unable to meet the irrigation demands. Although rainfall can vary significantly in south Asia, we find that water scarcity is largely chronic due to the irrigation demands rather than being intermittent due to climate variability.

  16. Investigation of Endogenous Retrovirus Sequences in the Neighborhood of Genes Up-regulated in a Neuroblastoma Model after Treatment with Hypoxia-Mimetic Cobalt Chloride.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brütting, Christine; Narasimhan, Harini; Hoffmann, Frank; Kornhuber, Malte E; Staege, Martin S; Emmer, Alexander

    2018-01-01

    Human endogenous retroviruses (ERVs) have been found to be associated with different diseases, e.g., multiple sclerosis (MS). Most human ERVs integrated in our genome are not competent to replicate and these sequences are presumably silent. However, transcription of human ERVs can be reactivated, e.g., by hypoxia. Interestingly, MS has been linked to hypoxia since decades. As some patterns of demyelination are similar to white matter ischemia, hypoxic damage is discussed. Therefore, we are interested in the association between hypoxia and ERVs. As a model, we used human SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cells after treatment with the hypoxia-mimetic cobalt chloride and analyzed differences in the gene expression profiles in comparison to untreated cells. The vicinity of up-regulated genes was scanned for endogenous retrovirus-derived sequences. Five genes were found to be strongly up-regulated in SH-SY5Y cells after treatment with cobalt chloride: clusterin, glutathione peroxidase 3, insulin-like growth factor 2, solute carrier family 7 member 11, and neural precursor cell expressed developmentally down-regulated protein 9. In the vicinity of these genes we identified large (>1,000 bp) open reading frames (ORFs). Most of these ORFs showed only low similarities to proteins from retro-transcribing viruses. However, we found very high similarity between retrovirus envelope sequences and a sequence in the vicinity of neural precursor cell expressed developmentally down-regulated protein 9. This sequence encodes the human endogenous retrovirus group FRD member 1, the encoded protein product is called syncytin 2. Transfection of syncytin 2 into the well-characterized Ewing sarcoma cell line A673 was not able to modulate the low immunostimulatory activity of this cell line. Future research is needed to determine whether the identified genes and the human endogenous retrovirus group FRD member 1 might play a role in the etiology of MS.

  17. Beneficial effects of endogenous and exogenous melatonin on neural reconstruction and functional recovery in an animal model of spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sookyoung; Lee, Sang-Kil; Park, Kanghui; Lee, Youngjeon; Hong, Yunkyung; Lee, Seunghoon; Jeon, Je-Cheol; Kim, Joo-Heon; Lee, Sang-Rae; Chang, Kyu-Tae; Hong, Yonggeun

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the beneficial effects of endogenous and exogenous melatonin on functional recovery in an animal model of spinal cord injury (SCI). Eight-week-old male Sprague-Dawley (SD, 250-260 g) rats were used for contusion SCI surgery. All experimental groups were maintained under one of the following conditions: 12/12-hr light/dark (L/D) or 24:0-hr constant light (LL). Melatonin (10 mg/kg) was injected subcutaneously for 4 wk, twice daily (07:00, 19:00). Locomotor recovery, inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS), glial fibrillary acidic protein gene expression, and muscle atrophy-related genes, including muscle atrophy F-box (MAFbx) and muscle-specific ring-finger protein 1 (MuRF1) gene expression were evaluated. Furthermore, autophagic signaling such as Beclin-1 and LC3 protein expression was examined in the spinal cord and in skeletal muscle. The melatonin treatment resulted in increased hind-limb motor function and decreased iNOS mRNA expression in the L/D condition compared with the LL condition (P endogenous melatonin had neuroprotective effects. Furthermore, the MAFbx, MuRF1 mRNA level, and converted LC3 II protein expression were decreased in the melatonin-treated SCI groups under the LL (P exogenous melatonin treatment. Therefore, it seems that both endogenous and exogenous melatonin contribute to neural recovery and to the prevention of skeletal muscle atrophy, promoting functional recovery after SCI. Finally, this study supports the benefit of endogenous melatonin and use of exogenous melatonin as a therapeutic intervention for SCI. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  18. Investigations of incorporating source directivity into room acoustics computer models to improve auralizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigeant, Michelle C.

    Room acoustics computer modeling and auralizations are useful tools when designing or modifying acoustically sensitive spaces. In this dissertation, the input parameter of source directivity has been studied in great detail to determine first its effect in room acoustics computer models and secondly how to better incorporate the directional source characteristics into these models to improve auralizations. To increase the accuracy of room acoustics computer models, the source directivity of real sources, such as musical instruments, must be included in the models. The traditional method for incorporating source directivity into room acoustics computer models involves inputting the measured static directivity data taken every 10° in a sphere-shaped pattern around the source. This data can be entered into the room acoustics software to create a directivity balloon, which is used in the ray tracing algorithm to simulate the room impulse response. The first study in this dissertation shows that using directional sources over an omni-directional source in room acoustics computer models produces significant differences both in terms of calculated room acoustics parameters and auralizations. The room acoustics computer model was also validated in terms of accurately incorporating the input source directivity. A recently proposed technique for creating auralizations using a multi-channel source representation has been investigated with numerous subjective studies, applied to both solo instruments and an orchestra. The method of multi-channel auralizations involves obtaining multi-channel anechoic recordings of short melodies from various instruments and creating individual channel auralizations. These auralizations are then combined to create a total multi-channel auralization. Through many subjective studies, this process was shown to be effective in terms of improving the realism and source width of the auralizations in a number of cases, and also modeling different

  19. A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Lewis; Ross, Joshua V

    2016-10-01

    Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza; however, quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of 'big data' coming from online social media and the like, large volumes of data on a population's engagement with mass media during an epidemic are becoming available to researchers. In this study, we combine an online dataset comprising millions of shared messages relating to influenza with traditional surveillance data on flu activity to suggest a functional form for the relationship between the two. Using this data, we present a simple deterministic model for influenza dynamics incorporating media effects, and show that such a model helps explain the dynamics of historical influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, through model selection we show that the proposed media function fits historical data better than other media functions proposed in earlier studies.

  20. Towards a functional model of mental disorders incorporating the laws of thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, George C; McKenzie, Karen

    2013-05-01

    The current paper presents the hypothesis that the understanding of mental disorders can be advanced by incorporating the laws of thermodynamics, specifically relating to energy conservation and energy transfer. These ideas, along with the introduction of the notion that entropic activities are symptomatic of inefficient energy transfer or disorder, were used to propose a model of understanding mental ill health as resulting from the interaction of entropy, capacity and work (environmental demands). The model was applied to Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, and was shown to be compatible with current thinking about this condition, as well as emerging models of mental disorders as complex networks. A key implication of the proposed model is that it argues that all mental disorders require a systemic functional approach, with the advantage that it offers a number of routes into the assessment, formulation and treatment for mental health problems. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Incorporating ligament laxity in a finite element model for the upper cervical spine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasswell, Timothy L; Cronin, Duane S; Medley, John B; Rasoulinejad, Parham

    2017-11-01

    Predicting physiological range of motion (ROM) using a finite element (FE) model of the upper cervical spine requires the incorporation of ligament laxity. The effect of ligament laxity can be observed only on a macro level of joint motion and is lost once ligaments have been dissected and preconditioned for experimental testing. As a result, although ligament laxity values are recognized to exist, specific values are not directly available in the literature for use in FE models. The purpose of the current study is to propose an optimization process that can be used to determine a set of ligament laxity values for upper cervical spine FE models. Furthermore, an FE model that includes ligament laxity is applied, and the resulting ROM values are compared with experimental data for physiological ROM, as well as experimental data for the increase in ROM when a Type II odontoid fracture is introduced. The upper cervical spine FE model was adapted from a 50th percentile male full-body model developed with the Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC). FE modeling was performed in LS-DYNA and LS-OPT (Livermore Software Technology Group) was used for ligament laxity optimization. Ordinate-based curve matching was used to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) between computed load-rotation curves and experimental load-rotation curves under flexion, extension, and axial rotation with pure moment loads from 0 to 3.5 Nm. Lateral bending was excluded from the optimization because the upper cervical spine was considered to be primarily responsible for flexion, extension, and axial rotation. Based on recommendations from the literature, four varying inputs representing laxity in select ligaments were optimized to minimize the MSE. Funding was provided by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada as well as GHMBC. The present study was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada to support the work of one graduate student

  2. Incorporating microbiota data into epidemiologic models: examples from vaginal microbiota research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Wijgert, Janneke H; Jespers, Vicky

    2016-05-01

    Next generation sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction technologies are now widely available, and research incorporating these methods is growing exponentially. In the vaginal microbiota (VMB) field, most research to date has been descriptive. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of different ways in which next generation sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction data can be used to answer clinical epidemiologic research questions using examples from VMB research. We reviewed relevant methodological literature and VMB articles (published between 2008 and 2015) that incorporated these methodologies. VMB data have been analyzed using ecologic methods, methods that compare the presence or relative abundance of individual taxa or community compositions between different groups of women or sampling time points, and methods that first reduce the complexity of the data into a few variables followed by the incorporation of these variables into traditional biostatistical models. To make future VMB research more clinically relevant (such as studying associations between VMB compositions and clinical outcomes and the effects of interventions on the VMB), it is important that these methods are integrated with rigorous epidemiologic methods (such as appropriate study designs, sampling strategies, and adjustment for confounding). Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Climate modelling with endogenous technical change: Stochastic learning and optimal greenhouse gas abatement in the PAGE2002 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberth, Stephan; Hope, Chris

    2007-01-01

    This paper looks at the impact of ETC on the costs and benefits of different abatement strategies using a modified version of the PAGE2002 model. It was found that for most standard abatement paths there would be an initial 'learning investment' required that would substantially reduce the unit costs of CO 2 abatement as compared to a business as usual scenario. Furthermore, optimising an abatement program where ETC has been included leads to an increase in cost uncertainty during the period of widespread CO 2 abatements due to our lack of knowledge of the learning investments involved. Finally, the inclusion of ETC leads to a slightly deferred optimised abatement path followed by a rapid abatement program. Together, the results draw attention to the possibilities of 'uncovering uncertainty' through proactive abatements. 'Learning about learning' could become an important consideration for any plan to optimise future abatements

  4. Teaching Genetic Counseling Skills: Incorporating a Genetic Counseling Adaptation Continuum Model to Address Psychosocial Complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugar, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Genetic counselors are trained health care professionals who effectively integrate both psychosocial counseling and information-giving into their practice. Preparing genetic counseling students for clinical practice is a challenging task, particularly when helping them develop effective and active counseling skills. Resistance to incorporating these skills may stem from decreased confidence, fear of causing harm or a lack of clarity of psycho-social goals. The author reflects on the personal challenges experienced in teaching genetic counselling students to work with psychological and social complexity, and proposes a Genetic Counseling Adaptation Continuum model and methodology to guide students in the use of advanced counseling skills.

  5. Incorporation of detailed eye model into polygon-mesh versions of ICRP-110 reference phantoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thang Tat; Yeom, Yeon Soo; Kim, Han Sung; Wang, Zhao Jun; Han, Min Cheol; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Lee, Jai Ki; Zankl, Maria; Petoussi-Henss, Nina; Bolch, Wesley E; Lee, Choonsik; Chung, Beom Sun

    2015-11-21

    The dose coefficients for the eye lens reported in ICRP 2010 Publication 116 were calculated using both a stylized model and the ICRP-110 reference phantoms, according to the type of radiation, energy, and irradiation geometry. To maintain consistency of lens dose assessment, in the present study we incorporated the ICRP-116 detailed eye model into the converted polygon-mesh (PM) version of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms. After the incorporation, the dose coefficients for the eye lens were calculated and compared with those of the ICRP-116 data. The results showed generally a good agreement between the newly calculated lens dose coefficients and the values of ICRP 2010 Publication 116. Significant differences were found for some irradiation cases due mainly to the use of different types of phantoms. Considering that the PM version of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms preserve the original topology of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms, it is believed that the PM version phantoms, along with the detailed eye model, provide more reliable and consistent dose coefficients for the eye lens.

  6. Model for incorporating fuel swelling and clad shrinkage effects in diffusion theory calculations (LWBR Development Program)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schick, W.C. Jr.; Milani, S.; Duncombe, E.

    1980-03-01

    A model has been devised for incorporating into the thermal feedback procedure of the PDQ few-group diffusion theory computer program the explicit calculation of depletion and temperature dependent fuel-rod shrinkage and swelling at each mesh point. The model determines the effect on reactivity of the change in hydrogen concentration caused by the variation in coolant channel area as the rods contract and expand. The calculation of fuel temperature, and hence of Doppler-broadened cross sections, is improved by correcting the heat transfer coefficient of the fuel-clad gap for the effects of clad creep, fuel densification and swelling, and release of fission-product gases into the gap. An approximate calculation of clad stress is also included in the model

  7. A Fibrocontractive Mechanochemical Model of Dermal Wound Closure Incorporating Realistic Growth Factor Kinetics

    KAUST Repository

    Murphy, Kelly E.

    2012-01-13

    Fibroblasts and their activated phenotype, myofibroblasts, are the primary cell types involved in the contraction associated with dermal wound healing. Recent experimental evidence indicates that the transformation from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts involves two distinct processes: The cells are stimulated to change phenotype by the combined actions of transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) and mechanical tension. This observation indicates a need for a detailed exploration of the effect of the strong interactions between the mechanical changes and growth factors in dermal wound healing. We review the experimental findings in detail and develop a model of dermal wound healing that incorporates these phenomena. Our model includes the interactions between TGFβ and collagenase, providing a more biologically realistic form for the growth factor kinetics than those included in previous mechanochemical descriptions. A comparison is made between the model predictions and experimental data on human dermal wound healing and all the essential features are well matched. © 2012 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  8. Developing Baltic cod recruitment models II : Incorporation of environmental variability and species interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köster, Fritz; Hinrichsen, H.H.; St. John, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We investigate whether a process-oriented approach based on the results of field, laboratory, and modelling studies can be used to develop a stock-environment-recruitment model for Central Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on exploratory statistical analysis, significant variables influencing...... affecting survival of eggs, predation by clupeids on eggs, larval transport, and cannibalism. Results showed that recruitment in the most important spawning area, the Bornholm Basin, during 1976-1995 was related to egg production; however, other factors affecting survival of the eggs (oxygen conditions......, predation) were also significant and when incorporated explained 69% of the variation in 0-group recruitment. In other spawning areas, variable hydrographic conditions did not allow for regular successful egg development. Hence, relatively simple models proved sufficient to predict recruitment of 0-group...

  9. Incorporating excitation-induced dephasing into the Maxwell-Bloch numerical modeling of photon echoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burr, G.W.; Harris, Todd L.; Babbitt, Wm. Randall; Jefferson, C. Michael

    2004-01-01

    We describe the incorporation of excitation-induced dephasing (EID) into the Maxwell-Bloch numerical simulation of photon echoes. At each time step of the usual numerical integration, stochastic frequency jumps of ions--caused by excitation of neighboring ions--is modeled by convolving each Bloch vector with the Bloch vectors of nearby frequency detunings. The width of this convolution kernel follows the instantaneous change in overall population, integrated over the simulated bandwidth. This approach is validated by extensive comparison against published and original experimental results. The enhanced numerical model is then used to investigate the accuracy of experiments designed to extrapolate to the intrinsic dephasing time T 2 from data taken in the presence of EID. Such a modeling capability offers improved understanding of experimental results, and should allow quantitative analysis of engineering tradeoffs in realistic optical coherent transient applications

  10. Affordances perspective and grammaticalization: Incorporation of language, environment and users in the model of semantic paths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Andrason

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The present paper demonstrates that insights from the affordances perspective can contribute to developing a more comprehensive model of grammaticalization. The authors argue that the grammaticalization process is afforded differently depending on the values of three contributing parameters: the factor (schematized as a qualitative-quantitative map or a wave of a gram, environment (understood as the structure of the stream along which the gram travels, and actor (narrowed to certain cognitive-epistemological capacities of the users, in particular to the fact of being a native speaker. By relating grammaticalization to these three parameters and by connecting it to the theory of optimization, the proposed model offers a better approximation to realistic cases of grammaticalization: The actor and environment are overtly incorporated into the model and divergences from canonical grammaticalization paths are both tolerated and explicable.

  11. A Fibrocontractive Mechanochemical Model of Dermal Wound Closure Incorporating Realistic Growth Factor Kinetics

    KAUST Repository

    Murphy, Kelly E.; Hall, Cameron L.; Maini, Philip K.; McCue, Scott W.; McElwain, D. L. Sean

    2012-01-01

    Fibroblasts and their activated phenotype, myofibroblasts, are the primary cell types involved in the contraction associated with dermal wound healing. Recent experimental evidence indicates that the transformation from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts involves two distinct processes: The cells are stimulated to change phenotype by the combined actions of transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) and mechanical tension. This observation indicates a need for a detailed exploration of the effect of the strong interactions between the mechanical changes and growth factors in dermal wound healing. We review the experimental findings in detail and develop a model of dermal wound healing that incorporates these phenomena. Our model includes the interactions between TGFβ and collagenase, providing a more biologically realistic form for the growth factor kinetics than those included in previous mechanochemical descriptions. A comparison is made between the model predictions and experimental data on human dermal wound healing and all the essential features are well matched. © 2012 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  12. Incorporating Yearly Derived Winter Wheat Maps Into Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skakun, S.; Franch, B.; Roger, J.-C.; Vermote, E.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C.; Santamaría-Artigas, A.

    2016-01-01

    Wheat is one of the most important cereal crops in the world. Timely and accurate forecast of wheat yield and production at global scale is vital in implementing food security policy. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed a generalized empirical model for forecasting winter wheat production using remote sensing data and official statistics. This model was implemented using static wheat maps. In this paper, we analyze the impact of incorporating yearly wheat masks into the forecasting model. We propose a new approach of producing in season winter wheat maps exploiting satellite data and official statistics on crop area only. Validation on independent data showed that the proposed approach reached 6% to 23% of omission error and 10% to 16% of commission error when mapping winter wheat 2-3 months before harvest. In general, we found a limited impact of using yearly winter wheat masks over a static mask for the study regions.

  13. Some considerations concerning the challenge of incorporating social variables into epidemiological models of infectious disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Tony; Fournié, Guillaume; Gupta, Sunetra; Seeley, Janet

    2015-01-01

    Incorporation of 'social' variables into epidemiological models remains a challenge. Too much detail and models cease to be useful; too little and the very notion of infection - a highly social process in human populations - may be considered with little reference to the social. The French sociologist Émile Durkheim proposed that the scientific study of society required identification and study of 'social currents'. Such 'currents' are what we might today describe as 'emergent properties', specifiable variables appertaining to individuals and groups, which represent the perspectives of social actors as they experience the environment in which they live their lives. Here we review the ways in which one particular emergent property, hope, relevant to a range of epidemiological situations, might be used in epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases in human populations. We also indicate how such an approach might be extended to include a range of other potential emergent properties to represent complex social and economic processes bearing on infectious disease transmission.

  14. Are endogenous feline leukemia viruses really endogenous?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, H; Jarrett, O; Hosie, M J; Willett, B J

    2011-10-15

    Full length endogenous feline leukemia virus (FeLV) proviruses exist within the genomes of many breeds of domestic cat raising the possibility that they may also exist in a transmissible exogenous form. Such viruses would share receptor usage with the recombinant FeLV-B subgroup, a viral subgroup that arises in vivo by recombination between exogenous subgroup A virus (FeLV-A) and endogenous FeLV. Accordingly, all isolates of FeLV-B made to date have contained a "helper" FeLV-A, consistent with their recombinatorial origin. In order to assess whether endogenous viruses are transmitted between cats, we examined primary isolates of FeLV for which the viral subgroup had been determined for the presence of a subgroup B virus that lacked an FeLV-A. Here we describe the identification of two primary field isolates of FeLV (2518 and 4314) that appeared to contain subgroup B virus only by classical interference assays, raising the possibility of between-host transmission of endogenous FeLV. Sequencing of the env gene and U3 region of the 3' long terminal repeat (LTR) confirmed that both viral genomes contained endogenous viral env genes. However the viral 3' LTRs appeared exogenous in origin with a putative 3' recombination breakpoint residing at the 3' end of the env gene. Further, the FeLV-2518 virions also co-packaged a truncated FeLV-A genome containing a defective env gene, termed FeLV-2518(A) whilst no helper subgroup A viral genome was detected in virions of FeLV-4314. The acquisition of an exogenous LTR by the endogenous FeLV in 4314 may have allowed a recombinant FeLV variant to outgrow an exogenous FeLV-A virus that was presumably present during first infection. Given time, a similar evolution may also occur within the 2518 isolate. The data suggest that endogenous FeLVs may be mobilised by acquisition of exogenous LTRs yielding novel viruses that type biologically as FeLV-B. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Are adverse effects incorporated in economic models? An initial review of current practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, D; McDaid, C; Fonseca, T; Stock, C; Duffy, S; Woolacott, N

    2009-12-01

    To identify methodological research on the incorporation of adverse effects in economic models and to review current practice. Major electronic databases (Cochrane Methodology Register, Health Economic Evaluations Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, EconLit, EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium, IDEAS, MEDLINE and Science Citation Index) were searched from inception to September 2007. Health technology assessment (HTA) reports commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) HTA programme and published between 2004 and 2007 were also reviewed. The reviews of methodological research on the inclusion of adverse effects in decision models and of current practice were carried out according to standard methods. Data were summarised in a narrative synthesis. Of the 719 potentially relevant references in the methodological research review, five met the inclusion criteria; however, they contained little information of direct relevance to the incorporation of adverse effects in models. Of the 194 HTA monographs published from 2004 to 2007, 80 were reviewed, covering a range of research and therapeutic areas. In total, 85% of the reports included adverse effects in the clinical effectiveness review and 54% of the decision models included adverse effects in the model; 49% included adverse effects in the clinical review and model. The link between adverse effects in the clinical review and model was generally weak; only 3/80 (manipulation. Of the models including adverse effects, 67% used a clinical adverse effects parameter, 79% used a cost of adverse effects parameter, 86% used one of these and 60% used both. Most models (83%) used utilities, but only two (2.5%) used solely utilities to incorporate adverse effects and were explicit that the utility captured relevant adverse effects; 53% of those models that included utilities derived them from patients on treatment and could therefore be interpreted as capturing adverse effects. In total

  16. A realistic closed-form radiobiological model of clinical tumor-control data incorporating intertumor heterogeneity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, Stephen A.; Hendry, Jolyon H.

    1998-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the role of intertumor heterogeneity in clinical tumor control datasets and the relationship to in vitro measurements of tumor biopsy samples. Specifically, to develop a modified linear-quadratic (LQ) model incorporating such heterogeneity that it is practical to fit to clinical tumor-control datasets. Methods and Materials: We developed a modified version of the linear-quadratic (LQ) model for tumor control, incorporating a (lagged) time factor to allow for tumor cell repopulation. We explicitly took into account the interpatient heterogeneity in clonogen number, radiosensitivity, and repopulation rate. Using this model, we could generate realistic TCP curves using parameter estimates consistent with those reported from in vitro studies, subject to the inclusion of a radiosensitivity (or dose)-modifying factor. We then demonstrated that the model was dominated by the heterogeneity in α (tumor radiosensitivity) and derived an approximate simplified model incorporating this heterogeneity. This simplified model is expressible in a compact closed form, which it is practical to fit to clinical datasets. Using two previously analysed datasets, we fit the model using direct maximum-likelihood techniques and obtained parameter estimates that were, again, consistent with the experimental data on the radiosensitivity of primary human tumor cells. This heterogeneity model includes the same number of adjustable parameters as the standard LQ model. Results: The modified model provides parameter estimates that can easily be reconciled with the in vitro measurements. The simplified (approximate) form of the heterogeneity model is a compact, closed-form probit function that can readily be fitted to clinical series by conventional maximum-likelihood methodology. This heterogeneity model provides a slightly better fit to the datasets than the conventional LQ model, with the same numbers of fitted parameters. The parameter estimates of the clinically

  17. Incorporating remote sensing-based ET estimates into the Community Land Model version 4.5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models bear substantial biases in simulating surface water and energy budgets despite the continuous development and improvement of model parameterizations. To reduce model biases, Parr et al. (2015 proposed a method incorporating satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET products into land surface models. Here we apply this bias correction method to the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5 and test its performance over the conterminous US (CONUS. We first calibrate a relationship between the observational ET from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM product and the model ET from CLM4.5, and assume that this relationship holds beyond the calibration period. During the validation or application period, a simulation using the default CLM4.5 (CLM is conducted first, and its output is combined with the calibrated observational-vs.-model ET relationship to derive a corrected ET; an experiment (CLMET is then conducted in which the model-generated ET is overwritten with the corrected ET. Using the observations of ET, runoff, and soil moisture content as benchmarks, we demonstrate that CLMET greatly improves the hydrological simulations over most of the CONUS, and the improvement is stronger in the eastern CONUS than the western CONUS and is strongest over the Southeast CONUS. For any specific region, the degree of the improvement depends on whether the relationship between observational and model ET remains time-invariant (a fundamental hypothesis of the Parr et al. (2015 method and whether water is the limiting factor in places where ET is underestimated. While the bias correction method improves hydrological estimates without improving the physical parameterization of land surface models, results from this study do provide guidance for physically based model development effort.

  18. Endogenous Locus Reporter Assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaping; Hermes, Jeffrey; Li, Jing; Tudor, Matthew

    2018-01-01

    Reporter gene assays are widely used in high-throughput screening (HTS) to identify compounds that modulate gene expression. Traditionally a reporter gene assay is built by cloning an endogenous promoter sequence or synthetic response elements in the regulatory region of a reporter gene to monitor transcriptional activity of a specific biological process (exogenous reporter assay). In contrast, an endogenous locus reporter has a reporter gene inserted in the endogenous gene locus that allows the reporter gene to be expressed under the control of the same regulatory elements as the endogenous gene, thus more accurately reflecting the changes seen in the regulation of the actual gene. In this chapter, we introduce some of the considerations behind building a reporter gene assay for high-throughput compound screening and describe the methods we have utilized to establish 1536-well format endogenous locus reporter and exogenous reporter assays for the screening of compounds that modulate Myc pathway activity.

  19. Production of endogenous pyrogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinarello, C A

    1979-01-01

    The production and release of endogenous pyrogen by the host is the first step in the pathogenesis of fever. Endogenous pyrogen is a low-molecular-weight protein released from phagocytic leukocytes in response to several substances of diverse nature. Some of these agents stimulate production of endogenous pyrogen because they are toxic; others act as antigens and interact with either antibody or sensitized lymphocytes in order to induce its production. Some tumors of macrophage origin produce the molecule spontaneously. Whatever the mechanism involved, endogenous pyrogen is synthesized following transcription of new DNA and translation of mRNA into new protein. Once synthesis is completed, the molecule is released without significant intracellular storage. Recent evidence suggests that following release, molecular aggregates form which are biologically active. In its monomer form, endogenous pyrogen is a potent fever-producing substance and mediates fever by its action on the thermoregulatory center.

  20. Energy-environment policy modeling of endogenous technological change with personal vehicles. Combining top-down and bottom-up methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaccard, Mark; Murphy, Rose; Rivers, Nic

    2004-01-01

    The transportation sector offers substantial potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission abatement, but widely divergent cost estimates complicate policy making; energy-economy policy modelers apply top-down and bottom-up cost definitions and different assumptions about future technologies and the preferences of firms and households. Our hybrid energy-economy policy model is technology-rich, like a bottom-up model, but has empirically estimated behavioral parameters for risk and technology preferences, like a top-down model. Unlike typical top-down models, however, it simulates technological change endogenously with functions that relate the financial costs of technologies to cumulative production and adjust technology preferences as market shares change. We apply it to the choice of personal vehicles to indicate, first, the effect on cost estimates of divergent cost definitions and, second, the possible response to policies that require a minimum market share for low emission vehicles

  1. A constitutive mechanical model for gas hydrate bearing sediments incorporating inelastic mechanisms

    KAUST Repository

    Sánchez, Marcelo

    2016-11-30

    Gas hydrate bearing sediments (HBS) are natural soils formed in permafrost and sub-marine settings where the temperature and pressure conditions are such that gas hydrates are stable. If these conditions shift from the hydrate stability zone, hydrates dissociate and move from the solid to the gas phase. Hydrate dissociation is accompanied by significant changes in sediment structure and strongly affects its mechanical behavior (e.g., sediment stiffenss, strength and dilatancy). The mechanical behavior of HBS is very complex and its modeling poses great challenges. This paper presents a new geomechanical model for hydrate bearing sediments. The model incorporates the concept of partition stress, plus a number of inelastic mechanisms proposed to capture the complex behavior of this type of soil. This constitutive model is especially well suited to simulate the behavior of HBS upon dissociation. The model was applied and validated against experimental data from triaxial and oedometric tests conducted on manufactured and natural specimens involving different hydrate saturation, hydrate morphology, and confinement conditions. Particular attention was paid to model the HBS behavior during hydrate dissociation under loading. The model performance was highly satisfactory in all the cases studied. It managed to properly capture the main features of HBS mechanical behavior and it also assisted to interpret the behavior of this type of sediment under different loading and hydrate conditions.

  2. Incorporating vehicle mix in stimulus-response car-following models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saidi Siuhi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to incorporate vehicle mix in stimulus-response car-following models. Separate models were estimated for acceleration and deceleration responses to account for vehicle mix via both movement state and vehicle type. For each model, three sub-models were developed for different pairs of following vehicles including “automobile following automobile,” “automobile following truck,” and “truck following automobile.” The estimated model parameters were then validated against other data from a similar region and roadway. The results indicated that drivers' behaviors were significantly different among the different pairs of following vehicles. Also the magnitude of the estimated parameters depends on the type of vehicle being driven and/or followed. These results demonstrated the need to use separate models depending on movement state and vehicle type. The differences in parameter estimates confirmed in this paper highlight traffic safety and operational issues of mixed traffic operation on a single lane. The findings of this paper can assist transportation professionals to improve traffic simulation models used to evaluate the impact of different strategies on ameliorate safety and performance of highways. In addition, driver response time lag estimates can be used in roadway design to calculate important design parameters such as stopping sight distance on horizontal and vertical curves for both automobiles and trucks.

  3. Fuzzy Logic-Based Model That Incorporates Personality Traits for Heterogeneous Pedestrians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuxin Xue

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Most models designed to simulate pedestrian dynamical behavior are based on the assumption that human decision-making can be described using precise values. This study proposes a new pedestrian model that incorporates fuzzy logic theory into a multi-agent system to address cognitive behavior that introduces uncertainty and imprecision during decision-making. We present a concept of decision preferences to represent the intrinsic control factors of decision-making. To realize the different decision preferences of heterogeneous pedestrians, the Five-Factor (OCEAN personality model is introduced to model the psychological characteristics of individuals. Then, a fuzzy logic-based approach is adopted for mapping the relationships between the personality traits and the decision preferences. Finally, we have developed an application using our model to simulate pedestrian dynamical behavior in several normal or non-panic scenarios, including a single-exit room, a hallway with obstacles, and a narrowing passage. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated with a user study. The results show that the proposed model can generate more reasonable and heterogeneous behavior in the simulation and indicate that individual personality has a noticeable effect on pedestrian dynamical behavior.

  4. Endogenous scheduling preferences and congestion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Small, Kenneth

    2017-01-01

    We consider the timing of activities through a dynamic model of commuting with congestion, in which workers care solely about leisure and consumption. Implicit preferences for the timing of the commute form endogenously due to temporal agglomeration economies. Equilibrium exists uniquely and is i......We consider the timing of activities through a dynamic model of commuting with congestion, in which workers care solely about leisure and consumption. Implicit preferences for the timing of the commute form endogenously due to temporal agglomeration economies. Equilibrium exists uniquely...... and is indistinguishable from that of a generalized version of the classical Vickrey bottleneck model, based on exogenous trip-timing preferences, but optimal policies differ: the Vickrey model will misstate the benefits of a capacity increase, it will underpredict the benefits of congestion pricing, and pricing may make...

  5. Discontinuous Galerkin Time-Domain Modeling of Graphene Nano-Ribbon Incorporating the Spatial Dispersion Effects

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Ping; Jiang, Li Jun; Bagci, Hakan

    2018-01-01

    It is well known that graphene demonstrates spatial dispersion properties, i.e., its conductivity is nonlocal and a function of spectral wave number (momentum operator) q. In this paper, to account for effects of spatial dispersion on transmission of high speed signals along graphene nano-ribbon (GNR) interconnects, a discontinuous Galerkin time-domain (DGTD) algorithm is proposed. The atomically-thick GNR is modeled using a nonlocal transparent surface impedance boundary condition (SIBC) incorporated into the DGTD scheme. Since the conductivity is a complicated function of q (and one cannot find an analytical Fourier transform pair between q and spatial differential operators), an exact time domain SIBC model cannot be derived. To overcome this problem, the conductivity is approximated by its Taylor series in spectral domain under low-q assumption. This approach permits expressing the time domain SIBC in the form of a second-order partial differential equation (PDE) in current density and electric field intensity. To permit easy incorporation of this PDE with the DGTD algorithm, three auxiliary variables, which degenerate the second-order (temporal and spatial) differential operators to first-order ones, are introduced. Regarding to the temporal dispersion effects, the auxiliary differential equation (ADE) method is utilized to eliminates the expensive temporal convolutions. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed scheme, numerical results, which involve characterization of spatial dispersion effects on the transfer impedance matrix of GNR interconnects, are presented.

  6. Discontinuous Galerkin Time-Domain Modeling of Graphene Nano-Ribbon Incorporating the Spatial Dispersion Effects

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Ping

    2018-04-13

    It is well known that graphene demonstrates spatial dispersion properties, i.e., its conductivity is nonlocal and a function of spectral wave number (momentum operator) q. In this paper, to account for effects of spatial dispersion on transmission of high speed signals along graphene nano-ribbon (GNR) interconnects, a discontinuous Galerkin time-domain (DGTD) algorithm is proposed. The atomically-thick GNR is modeled using a nonlocal transparent surface impedance boundary condition (SIBC) incorporated into the DGTD scheme. Since the conductivity is a complicated function of q (and one cannot find an analytical Fourier transform pair between q and spatial differential operators), an exact time domain SIBC model cannot be derived. To overcome this problem, the conductivity is approximated by its Taylor series in spectral domain under low-q assumption. This approach permits expressing the time domain SIBC in the form of a second-order partial differential equation (PDE) in current density and electric field intensity. To permit easy incorporation of this PDE with the DGTD algorithm, three auxiliary variables, which degenerate the second-order (temporal and spatial) differential operators to first-order ones, are introduced. Regarding to the temporal dispersion effects, the auxiliary differential equation (ADE) method is utilized to eliminates the expensive temporal convolutions. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed scheme, numerical results, which involve characterization of spatial dispersion effects on the transfer impedance matrix of GNR interconnects, are presented.

  7. Incorporating networks in a probabilistic graphical model to find drivers for complex human diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezlini, Aziz M; Goldenberg, Anna

    2017-10-01

    Discovering genetic mechanisms driving complex diseases is a hard problem. Existing methods often lack power to identify the set of responsible genes. Protein-protein interaction networks have been shown to boost power when detecting gene-disease associations. We introduce a Bayesian framework, Conflux, to find disease associated genes from exome sequencing data using networks as a prior. There are two main advantages to using networks within a probabilistic graphical model. First, networks are noisy and incomplete, a substantial impediment to gene discovery. Incorporating networks into the structure of a probabilistic models for gene inference has less impact on the solution than relying on the noisy network structure directly. Second, using a Bayesian framework we can keep track of the uncertainty of each gene being associated with the phenotype rather than returning a fixed list of genes. We first show that using networks clearly improves gene detection compared to individual gene testing. We then show consistently improved performance of Conflux compared to the state-of-the-art diffusion network-based method Hotnet2 and a variety of other network and variant aggregation methods, using randomly generated and literature-reported gene sets. We test Hotnet2 and Conflux on several network configurations to reveal biases and patterns of false positives and false negatives in each case. Our experiments show that our novel Bayesian framework Conflux incorporates many of the advantages of the current state-of-the-art methods, while offering more flexibility and improved power in many gene-disease association scenarios.

  8. Advanced Methods for Incorporating Solar Energy Technologies into Electric Sector Capacity-Expansion Models: Literature Review and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, P.; Eurek, K.; Margolis, R.

    2014-07-01

    Because solar power is a rapidly growing component of the electricity system, robust representations of solar technologies should be included in capacity-expansion models. This is a challenge because modeling the electricity system--and, in particular, modeling solar integration within that system--is a complex endeavor. This report highlights the major challenges of incorporating solar technologies into capacity-expansion models and shows examples of how specific models address those challenges. These challenges include modeling non-dispatchable technologies, determining which solar technologies to model, choosing a spatial resolution, incorporating a solar resource assessment, and accounting for solar generation variability and uncertainty.

  9. Energy system investment model incorporating heat pumps with thermal storage in buildings and buffer tanks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Balyk, Olexandr

    2013-01-01

    Individual compression heat pumps constitute a potentially valuable resource in supporting wind power integration due to their economic competitiveness and possibilities for flexible operation. When analysing the system benefits of flexible heat pump operation, effects on investments should...... be taken into account. In this study, we present a model that facilitates analysing individual heat pumps and complementing heat storages in integration with the energy system, while optimising both investments and operation. The model incorporates thermal building dynamics and covers various heat storage...... of operating heat pumps flexibly. This includes prioritising heat pump operation for hours with low marginal electricity production costs, and peak load shaving resulting in a reduced need for peak and reserve capacity investments....

  10. Combination of exogenous cell transplantation and 5-HT{sub 4} receptor agonism induce endogenous enteric neural crest-derived cells in a rat hypoganglionosis model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Hui [Department of Pediatric Surgery, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No 157, Xi Wu Road, Xi’an 710004, Shaanxi (China); Institute of Neurobiology, Environment and Genes Related to Diseases Key Laboratory of Chinese Ministry of Education, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No 96, Yan Ta Xi Road, Xi’an 710061, Shaanxi (China); Zheng, Bai-Jun; Pan, Wei-Kang; Wang, Huai-Jie; Xie, Chong; Zhao, Yu-Ying [Department of Pediatric Surgery, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No 157, Xi Wu Road, Xi’an 710004, Shaanxi (China); Chen, Xin-Lin; Liu, Yong [Institute of Neurobiology, Environment and Genes Related to Diseases Key Laboratory of Chinese Ministry of Education, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No 96, Yan Ta Xi Road, Xi’an 710061, Shaanxi (China); Gao, Ya, E-mail: ygao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [Department of Pediatric Surgery, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Xi’an Jiaotong University, No 157, Xi Wu Road, Xi’an 710004, Shaanxi (China)

    2017-02-01

    Enteric neural crest-derived cells (ENCCs) can migrate into endogenous ganglia and differentiate into progeny cells, and have even partially rescued bowel function; however, poor reliability and limited functional recovery after ENCC transplantation have yet to be addressed. Here, we investigated the induction of endogenous ENCCs by combining exogenous ENCC transplantation with a 5-HT{sub 4} receptor agonist mosapride in a rat model of hypoganglionosis, established by benzalkonium chloride treatment. ENCCs, isolated from the gut of newborn rats, were labeled with a lentiviral eGFP reporter. ENCCs and rats were treated with the 5-HT{sub 4} receptor agonist/antagonist. The labeled ENCCs were then transplanted into the muscular layer of benzalkonium chloride-treated colons. At given days post-intervention, colonic tissue samples were removed for histological analysis. ENCCs and neurons were detected by eGFP expression and immunoreactivity to p75{sup NTR} and peripherin, respectively. eGFP-positive ENCCs and neurons could survive and maintain levels of fluorescence after transplantation. With longer times post-intervention, the number of peripherin-positive cells gradually increased in all groups. Significantly more peripherin-positive cells were found following ENCCs plus mosapride treatment, compared with the other groups. These results show that exogenous ENCCs combined with the 5-HT{sub 4} receptor agonist effectively induced endogenous ENCCs proliferation and differentiation in a rat hypoganglionosis model. - Highlights: • Survival and differentiation of exogenous ENCCs in treated colons. • With longer times post-intervention, the number of ENCCs and their progeny cells gradually increased. • Exogenous ENCCs combined with the 5-HT4 receptor agonist ffectively induced ENCCs proliferation and differentiation.

  11. Combination of exogenous cell transplantation and 5-HT4 receptor agonism induce endogenous enteric neural crest-derived cells in a rat hypoganglionosis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Hui; Zheng, Bai-Jun; Pan, Wei-Kang; Wang, Huai-Jie; Xie, Chong; Zhao, Yu-Ying; Chen, Xin-Lin; Liu, Yong; Gao, Ya

    2017-01-01

    Enteric neural crest-derived cells (ENCCs) can migrate into endogenous ganglia and differentiate into progeny cells, and have even partially rescued bowel function; however, poor reliability and limited functional recovery after ENCC transplantation have yet to be addressed. Here, we investigated the induction of endogenous ENCCs by combining exogenous ENCC transplantation with a 5-HT 4 receptor agonist mosapride in a rat model of hypoganglionosis, established by benzalkonium chloride treatment. ENCCs, isolated from the gut of newborn rats, were labeled with a lentiviral eGFP reporter. ENCCs and rats were treated with the 5-HT 4 receptor agonist/antagonist. The labeled ENCCs were then transplanted into the muscular layer of benzalkonium chloride-treated colons. At given days post-intervention, colonic tissue samples were removed for histological analysis. ENCCs and neurons were detected by eGFP expression and immunoreactivity to p75 NTR and peripherin, respectively. eGFP-positive ENCCs and neurons could survive and maintain levels of fluorescence after transplantation. With longer times post-intervention, the number of peripherin-positive cells gradually increased in all groups. Significantly more peripherin-positive cells were found following ENCCs plus mosapride treatment, compared with the other groups. These results show that exogenous ENCCs combined with the 5-HT 4 receptor agonist effectively induced endogenous ENCCs proliferation and differentiation in a rat hypoganglionosis model. - Highlights: • Survival and differentiation of exogenous ENCCs in treated colons. • With longer times post-intervention, the number of ENCCs and their progeny cells gradually increased. • Exogenous ENCCs combined with the 5-HT4 receptor agonist ffectively induced ENCCs proliferation and differentiation.

  12. A MULTI-RESOLUTION FUSION MODEL INCORPORATING COLOR AND ELEVATION FOR SEMANTIC SEGMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zhang

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the developments for Fully Convolutional Networks (FCN have led to great improvements for semantic segmentation in various applications including fused remote sensing data. There is, however, a lack of an in-depth study inside FCN models which would lead to an understanding of the contribution of individual layers to specific classes and their sensitivity to different types of input data. In this paper, we address this problem and propose a fusion model incorporating infrared imagery and Digital Surface Models (DSM for semantic segmentation. The goal is to utilize heterogeneous data more accurately and effectively in a single model instead of to assemble multiple models. First, the contribution and sensitivity of layers concerning the given classes are quantified by means of their recall in FCN. The contribution of different modalities on the pixel-wise prediction is then analyzed based on visualization. Finally, an optimized scheme for the fusion of layers with color and elevation information into a single FCN model is derived based on the analysis. Experiments are performed on the ISPRS Vaihingen 2D Semantic Labeling dataset. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

  13. Modelling and Simulation of a Manipulator with Stable Viscoelastic Grasping Incorporating Friction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Khurshid

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Design, dynamics and control of a humanoid robotic hand based on anthropological dimensions, with joint friction, is modelled, simulated and analysed in this paper by using computer aided design and multibody dynamic simulation. Combined joint friction model is incorporated in the joints. Experimental values of coefficient of friction of grease lubricated sliding contacts representative of manipulator joints are presented. Human fingers deform to the shape of the grasped object (enveloping grasp at the area of interaction. A mass-spring-damper model of the grasp is developed. The interaction of the viscoelastic gripper of the arm with objects is analysed by using Bond Graph modelling method. Simulations were conducted for several material parameters. These results of the simulation are then used to develop a prototype of the proposed gripper. Bond graph model is experimentally validated by using the prototype. The gripper is used to successfully transport soft and fragile objects. This paper provides information on optimisation of friction and its inclusion in both dynamic modelling and simulation to enhance mechanical efficiency.

  14. Incorporating Social System Dynamics into the Food-Energy-Water System Resilience-Sustainability Modeling Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Givens, J.; Padowski, J.; Malek, K.; Guzman, C.; Boll, J.; Adam, J. C.; Witinok-Huber, R.

    2017-12-01

    In the face of climate change and multi-scalar governance objectives, achieving resilience of food-energy-water (FEW) systems requires interdisciplinary approaches. Through coordinated modeling and management efforts, we study "Innovations in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (INFEWS)" through a case-study in the Columbia River Basin. Previous research on FEW system management and resilience includes some attention to social dynamics (e.g., economic, governance); however, more research is needed to better address social science perspectives. Decisions ultimately taken in this river basin would occur among stakeholders encompassing various institutional power structures including multiple U.S. states, tribal lands, and sovereign nations. The social science lens draws attention to the incompatibility between the engineering definition of resilience (i.e., return to equilibrium or a singular stable state) and the ecological and social system realities, more explicit in the ecological interpretation of resilience (i.e., the ability of a system to move into a different, possibly more resilient state). Social science perspectives include but are not limited to differing views on resilience as normative, system persistence versus transformation, and system boundary issues. To expand understanding of resilience and objectives for complex and dynamic systems, concepts related to inequality, heterogeneity, power, agency, trust, values, culture, history, conflict, and system feedbacks must be more tightly integrated into FEW research. We identify gaps in knowledge and data, and the value and complexity of incorporating social components and processes into systems models. We posit that socio-biophysical system resilience modeling would address important complex, dynamic social relationships, including non-linear dynamics of social interactions, to offer an improved understanding of sustainable management in FEW systems. Conceptual modeling that is presented in our study, represents

  15. Developing a stochastic parameterization to incorporate plant trait variability into ecohydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.; Ng, G. H. C.

    2017-12-01

    The global plant database has revealed that plant traits can vary more within a plant functional type (PFT) than among different PFTs, indicating that the current paradigm in ecohydrogical models of specifying fixed parameters based solely on plant functional type (PFT) could potentially bias simulations. Although some recent modeling studies have attempted to incorporate this observed plant trait variability, many failed to consider uncertainties due to sparse global observation, or they omitted spatial and/or temporal variability in the traits. Here we present a stochastic parameterization for prognostic vegetation simulations that are stochastic in time and space in order to represent plant trait plasticity - the process by which trait differences arise. We have developed the new PFT parameterization within the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM 4.5) and tested the method for a desert shrubland watershed in the Mojave Desert, where fixed parameterizations cannot represent acclimation to desert conditions. Spatiotemporally correlated plant trait parameters were first generated based on TRY statistics and were then used to implement ensemble runs for the study area. The new PFT parameterization was then further conditioned on field measurements of soil moisture and remotely sensed observations of leaf-area-index to constrain uncertainties in the sparse global database. Our preliminary results show that incorporating data-conditioned, variable PFT parameterizations strongly affects simulated soil moisture and water fluxes, compared with default simulations. The results also provide new insights about correlations among plant trait parameters and between traits and environmental conditions in the desert shrubland watershed. Our proposed stochastic PFT parameterization method for ecohydrological models has great potential in advancing our understanding of how terrestrial ecosystems are predicted to adapt to variable environmental conditions.

  16. A model to incorporate organ deformation in the evaluation of dose/volume relationship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, D.; Jaffray, D.; Wong, J.; Brabbins, D.; Martinez, A. A.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: Measurements of internal organ motion have demonstrated that daily organ deformation exists during the course of radiation treatment. However, a model to evaluate the resultant dose delivered to a daily deformed organ remains a difficult challenge. Current methods which model such organ deformation as rigid body motion in the dose calculation for treatment planning evaluation are incorrect and misleading. In this study, a new model for treatment planning evaluation is introduced which incorporates patient specific information of daily organ deformation and setup variation. The model was also used to retrospectively analyze the actual treatment data measured using daily CT scans for 5 patients with prostate treatment. Methods and Materials: The model assumes that for each patient, the organ of interest can be measured during the first few treatment days. First, the volume of each organ is delineated from each of the daily measurements and cumulated in a 3D bit-map. A tissue occupancy distribution is then constructed with the 50% isodensity representing the mean, or effective, organ volume. During the course of treatment, each voxel in the effective organ volume is assumed to move inside a local 3D neighborhood with a specific distribution function. The neighborhood and the distribution function are deduced from the positions and shapes of the organ in the first few measurements using the biomechanics model of viscoelastic body. For each voxel, the local distribution function is then convolved with the spatial dose distribution. The latter includes also the variation in dose due to daily setup error. As a result, the cumulative dose to the voxel incorporates the effects of daily setup variation and organ deformation. A ''variation adjusted'' dose volume histogram, aDVH, for the effective organ volume can then be constructed for the purpose of treatment evaluation and optimization. Up to 20 daily CT scans and daily portal images for 5 patients with prostate

  17. Incorporating time-delays in S-System model for reverse engineering genetic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Ahsan Raja; Chetty, Madhu; Vinh, Nguyen Xuan

    2013-06-18

    In any gene regulatory network (GRN), the complex interactions occurring amongst transcription factors and target genes can be either instantaneous or time-delayed. However, many existing modeling approaches currently applied for inferring GRNs are unable to represent both these interactions simultaneously. As a result, all these approaches cannot detect important interactions of the other type. S-System model, a differential equation based approach which has been increasingly applied for modeling GRNs, also suffers from this limitation. In fact, all S-System based existing modeling approaches have been designed to capture only instantaneous interactions, and are unable to infer time-delayed interactions. In this paper, we propose a novel Time-Delayed S-System (TDSS) model which uses a set of delay differential equations to represent the system dynamics. The ability to incorporate time-delay parameters in the proposed S-System model enables simultaneous modeling of both instantaneous and time-delayed interactions. Furthermore, the delay parameters are not limited to just positive integer values (corresponding to time stamps in the data), but can also take fractional values. Moreover, we also propose a new criterion for model evaluation exploiting the sparse and scale-free nature of GRNs to effectively narrow down the search space, which not only reduces the computation time significantly but also improves model accuracy. The evaluation criterion systematically adapts the max-min in-degrees and also systematically balances the effect of network accuracy and complexity during optimization. The four well-known performance measures applied to the experimental studies on synthetic networks with various time-delayed regulations clearly demonstrate that the proposed method can capture both instantaneous and delayed interactions correctly with high precision. The experiments carried out on two well-known real-life networks, namely IRMA and SOS DNA repair network in

  18. Benefits of incorporating spatial organisation of catchments for a semi-distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Andreas; Oppel, Henning

    2017-04-01

    To represent the hydrological behaviour of catchments a model should reproduce/reflect the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject of a certain spatial organisation. Since common models are mostly based on fundamental assumptions about hydrological processes, the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organisation of the catchment is desirable. We have developed a method that combines the idea of the width-function used for determination of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph with information about soil or topography. With this method we are able to assess the spatial organisation of selected catchment characteristics. An algorithm was developed that structures a watershed into sub-basins and other spatial units to minimise its heterogeneity. The outcomes of this algorithm are used for the spatial setup of a semi-distributed model. Since the spatial organisation of a catchment is not bound to a single characteristic, we have to embed information of multiple catchment properties. For this purpose we applied a fuzzy-based method to combine the spatial setup for multiple single characteristics into a union, optimal spatial differentiation. Utilizing this method, we are able to propose a spatial structure for a semi-distributed hydrological model, comprising the definition of sub-basins and a zonal classification within each sub-basin. Besides the improved spatial structuring, the performed analysis ameliorates modelling in another way. The spatial variability of catchment characteristics, which is considered by a minimum of heterogeneity in the zones, can be considered in a parameter constrained calibration scheme in a case study both options were used to explore the benefits of incorporating the spatial organisation and derived parameter constraints for the parametrisation of a HBV-96 model. We use two benchmark

  19. Simulation of Forest Carbon Fluxes Using Model Incorporation and Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Yan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study improved simulation of forest carbon fluxes in the Changbai Mountains with a process-based model (Biome-BGC using incorporation and data assimilation. Firstly, the original remote sensing-based MODIS MOD_17 GPP (MOD_17 model was optimized using refined input data and biome-specific parameters. The key ecophysiological parameters of the Biome-BGC model were determined through the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST sensitivity analysis. Then the optimized MOD_17 model was used to calibrate the Biome-BGC model by adjusting the sensitive ecophysiological parameters. Once the best match was found for the 10 selected forest plots for the 8-day GPP estimates from the optimized MOD_17 and from the Biome-BGC, the values of sensitive ecophysiological parameters were determined. The calibrated Biome-BGC model agreed better with the eddy covariance (EC measurements (R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 1.583 gC·m−2·d−1 than the original model did (R2 = 0.72, RMSE = 2.419 gC·m−2·d−1. To provide a best estimate of the true state of the model, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF was used to assimilate five years (of eight-day periods between 2003 and 2007 of Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS LAI products into the calibrated Biome-BGC model. The results indicated that LAI simulated through the assimilated Biome-BGC agreed well with GLASS LAI. GPP performances obtained from the assimilated Biome-BGC were further improved and verified by EC measurements at the Changbai Mountains forest flux site (R2 = 0.92, RMSE = 1.261 gC·m−2·d−1.

  20. Energy system investment model incorporating heat pumps with thermal storage in buildings and buffer tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Balyk, Olexandr

    2013-01-01

    Individual compression heat pumps constitute a potentially valuable resource in supporting wind power integration due to their economic competitiveness and possibilities for flexible operation. When analysing the system benefits of flexible heat pump operation, effects on investments should be taken into account. In this study, we present a model that facilitates analysing individual heat pumps and complementing heat storages in integration with the energy system, while optimising both investments and operation. The model incorporates thermal building dynamics and covers various heat storage options: passive heat storage in the building structure via radiator heating, active heat storage in concrete floors via floor heating, and use of thermal storage tanks for space heating and hot water. It is shown that the model is well qualified for analysing possibilities and system benefits of operating heat pumps flexibly. This includes prioritising heat pump operation for hours with low marginal electricity production costs, and peak load shaving resulting in a reduced need for peak and reserve capacity investments. - Highlights: • Model optimising heat pumps and heat storages in integration with the energy system. • Optimisation of both energy system investments and operation. • Heat storage in building structure and thermal storage tanks included. • Model well qualified for analysing system benefits of flexible heat pump operation. • Covers peak load shaving and operation prioritised for low electricity prices

  1. Incorporating social groups' responses in a descriptive model for second- and higher-order impact identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutheerawatthana, Pitch; Minato, Takayuki

    2010-01-01

    The response of a social group is a missing element in the formal impact assessment model. Previous discussion of the involvement of social groups in an intervention has mainly focused on the formation of the intervention. This article discusses the involvement of social groups in a different way. A descriptive model is proposed by incorporating a social group's response into the concept of second- and higher-order effects. The model is developed based on a cause-effect relationship through the observation of phenomena in case studies. The model clarifies the process by which social groups interact with a lower-order effect and then generate a higher-order effect in an iterative manner. This study classifies social groups' responses into three forms-opposing, modifying, and advantage-taking action-and places them in six pathways. The model is expected to be used as an analytical tool for investigating and identifying impacts in the planning stage and as a framework for monitoring social groups' responses during the implementation stage of a policy, plan, program, or project (PPPPs).

  2. Incorporating plant fossil data into species distribution models is not straightforward: Pitfalls and possible solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Amat, Elena; Rubiales, Juan Manuel; Morales-Molino, César; García-Amorena, Ignacio

    2017-08-01

    The increasing development of species distribution models (SDMs) using palaeodata has created new prospects to address questions of evolution, ecology and biogeography from wider perspectives. Palaeobotanical data provide information on the past distribution of taxa at a given time and place and its incorporation on modelling has contributed to advancing the SDM field. This has allowed, for example, to calibrate models under past climate conditions or to validate projected models calibrated on current species distributions. However, these data also bear certain shortcomings when used in SDMs that may hinder the resulting ecological outcomes and eventually lead to misleading conclusions. Palaeodata may not be equivalent to present data, but instead frequently exhibit limitations and biases regarding species representation, taxonomy and chronological control, and their inclusion in SDMs should be carefully assessed. The limitations of palaeobotanical data applied to SDM studies are infrequently discussed and often neglected in the modelling literature; thus, we argue for the more careful selection and control of these data. We encourage authors to use palaeobotanical data in their SDMs studies and for doing so, we propose some recommendations to improve the robustness, reliability and significance of palaeo-SDM analyses.

  3. Irradiation-Dependent Effects on Tumor Perfusion and Endogenous and Exogenous Hypoxia Markers in an A549 Xenograft Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fokas, Emmanouil; Haenze, Joerg; Kamlah, Florentine; Eul, Bastian G.; Lang, Nico; Keil, Boris; Heverhagen, Johannes T.; Engenhart-Cabillic, Rita; An Hanxiang; Rose, Frank

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Hypoxia is a major determinant of tumor radiosensitivity, and microenvironmental changes in response to ionizing radiation (IR) are often heterogenous. We analyzed IR-dependent changes in hypoxia and perfusion in A549 human lung adenocarcinoma xenografts. Materials and Methods: Immunohistological analysis of two exogenously added chemical hypoxic markers, pimonidazole and CCI-103F, and of the endogenous marker Glut-1 was performed time dependently after IR. Tumor vessels and apoptosis were analyzed using CD31 and caspase-3 antibodies. Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) and fluorescent beads (Hoechst 33342) were used to monitor vascular perfusion. Results: CCI-103F signals measuring the fraction of hypoxic areas after IR were significantly decreased by approximately 50% when compared with pimonidazole signals, representing the fraction of hypoxic areas from the same tumors before IR. Interestingly, Glut-1 signals were significantly decreased at early time point (6.5 h) after IR returning to the initial levels at 30.5 h. Vascular density showed no difference between irradiated and control groups, whereas apoptosis was significantly induced at 10.5 h post-IR. DCE-MRI indicated increased perfusion 1 h post-IR. Conclusions: The discrepancy between the hypoxic fractions of CCI-103F and Glut-1 forces us to consider the possibility that both markers reflect different metabolic alterations of tumor microenvironment. The reliability of endogenous markers such as Glut-1 to measure reoxygenation in irradiated tumors needs further consideration. Monitoring tumor microvascular response to IR by DCE-MRI and measuring tumor volume alterations should be encouraged.

  4. Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating

  5. A generalized linear-quadratic model incorporating reciprocal time pattern of radiation damage repair

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Zhibin; Mayr, Nina A.; Lo, Simon S.; Wang, Jian Z.; Jia Guang; Yuh, William T. C.; Johnke, Roberta

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: It has been conventionally assumed that the repair rate for sublethal damage (SLD) remains constant during the entire radiation course. However, increasing evidence from animal studies suggest that this may not the case. Rather, it appears that the repair rate for radiation-induced SLD slows down with increasing time. Such a slowdown in repair would suggest that the exponential repair pattern would not necessarily accurately predict repair process. As a result, the purpose of this study was to investigate a new generalized linear-quadratic (LQ) model incorporating a repair pattern with reciprocal time. The new formulas were tested with published experimental data. Methods: The LQ model has been widely used in radiation therapy, and the parameter G in the surviving fraction represents the repair process of sublethal damage with T r as the repair half-time. When a reciprocal pattern of repair process was adopted, a closed form of G was derived analytically for arbitrary radiation schemes. The published animal data adopted to test the reciprocal formulas. Results: A generalized LQ model to describe the repair process in a reciprocal pattern was obtained. Subsequently, formulas for special cases were derived from this general form. The reciprocal model showed a better fit to the animal data than the exponential model, particularly for the ED50 data (reduced χ 2 min of 2.0 vs 4.3, p = 0.11 vs 0.006), with the following gLQ parameters: α/β = 2.6-4.8 Gy, T r = 3.2-3.9 h for rat feet skin, and α/β = 0.9 Gy, T r = 1.1 h for rat spinal cord. Conclusions: These results of repair process following a reciprocal time suggest that the generalized LQ model incorporating the reciprocal time of sublethal damage repair shows a better fit than the exponential repair model. These formulas can be used to analyze the experimental and clinical data, where a slowing-down repair process appears during the course of radiation therapy.

  6. Petroacoustic Modelling of Heterolithic Sandstone Reservoirs: A Novel Approach to Gassmann Modelling Incorporating Sedimentological Constraints and NMR Porosity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, S.; Lovell, M.; Davies, S. J.; Pritchard, T.; Sirju, C.; Abdelkarim, A.

    2012-12-01

    Heterolithic or 'shaly' sandstone reservoirs constitute a significant proportion of hydrocarbon resources. Petroacoustic models (a combination of petrophysics and rock physics) enhance the ability to extract reservoir properties from seismic data, providing a connection between seismic and fine-scale rock properties. By incorporating sedimentological observations these models can be better constrained and improved. Petroacoustic modelling is complicated by the unpredictable effects of clay minerals and clay-sized particles on geophysical properties. Such effects are responsible for erroneous results when models developed for "clean" reservoirs - such as Gassmann's equation (Gassmann, 1951) - are applied to heterolithic sandstone reservoirs. Gassmann's equation is arguably the most popular petroacoustic modelling technique in the hydrocarbon industry and is used to model elastic effects of changing reservoir fluid saturations. Successful implementation of Gassmann's equation requires well-constrained drained rock frame properties, which in heterolithic sandstones are heavily influenced by reservoir sedimentology, particularly clay distribution. The prevalent approach to categorising clay distribution is based on the Thomas - Stieber model (Thomas & Stieber, 1975), this approach is inconsistent with current understanding of 'shaly sand' sedimentology and omits properties such as sorting and grain size. The novel approach presented here demonstrates that characterising reservoir sedimentology constitutes an important modelling phase. As well as incorporating sedimentological constraints, this novel approach also aims to improve drained frame moduli estimates through more careful consideration of Gassmann's model assumptions and limitations. A key assumption of Gassmann's equation is a pore space in total communication with movable fluids. This assumption is often violated by conventional applications in heterolithic sandstone reservoirs where effective porosity, which

  7. A neural population model incorporating dopaminergic neurotransmission during complex voluntary behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Fürtinger

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Assessing brain activity during complex voluntary motor behaviors that require the recruitment of multiple neural sites is a field of active research. Our current knowledge is primarily based on human brain imaging studies that have clear limitations in terms of temporal and spatial resolution. We developed a physiologically informed non-linear multi-compartment stochastic neural model to simulate functional brain activity coupled with neurotransmitter release during complex voluntary behavior, such as speech production. Due to its state-dependent modulation of neural firing, dopaminergic neurotransmission plays a key role in the organization of functional brain circuits controlling speech and language and thus has been incorporated in our neural population model. A rigorous mathematical proof establishing existence and uniqueness of solutions to the proposed model as well as a computationally efficient strategy to numerically approximate these solutions are presented. Simulated brain activity during the resting state and sentence production was analyzed using functional network connectivity, and graph theoretical techniques were employed to highlight differences between the two conditions. We demonstrate that our model successfully reproduces characteristic changes seen in empirical data between the resting state and speech production, and dopaminergic neurotransmission evokes pronounced changes in modeled functional connectivity by acting on the underlying biological stochastic neural model. Specifically, model and data networks in both speech and rest conditions share task-specific network features: both the simulated and empirical functional connectivity networks show an increase in nodal influence and segregation in speech over the resting state. These commonalities confirm that dopamine is a key neuromodulator of the functional connectome of speech control. Based on reproducible characteristic aspects of empirical data, we suggest a number

  8. Incorporating Single-nucleotide Polymorphisms Into the Lyman Model to Improve Prediction of Radiation Pneumonitis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tucker, Susan L., E-mail: sltucker@mdanderson.org [Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Li Minghuan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China); Xu Ting; Gomez, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Yuan Xianglin [Department of Oncology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan (China); Yu Jinming [Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China); Liu Zhensheng; Yin Ming; Guan Xiaoxiang; Wang Lie; Wei Qingyi [Department of Epidemiology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Mohan, Radhe [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Vinogradskiy, Yevgeniy [University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Martel, Mary [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Liao Zhongxing [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes associated with DNA repair, cell cycle, transforming growth factor-{beta}, tumor necrosis factor and receptor, folic acid metabolism, and angiogenesis can significantly improve the fit of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model of radiation pneumonitis (RP) risk among patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: Sixteen SNPs from 10 different genes (XRCC1, XRCC3, APEX1, MDM2, TGF{beta}, TNF{alpha}, TNFR, MTHFR, MTRR, and VEGF) were genotyped in 141 NSCLC patients treated with definitive radiation therapy, with or without chemotherapy. The LKB model was used to estimate the risk of severe (grade {>=}3) RP as a function of mean lung dose (MLD), with SNPs and patient smoking status incorporated into the model as dose-modifying factors. Multivariate analyses were performed by adding significant factors to the MLD model in a forward stepwise procedure, with significance assessed using the likelihood-ratio test. Bootstrap analyses were used to assess the reproducibility of results under variations in the data. Results: Five SNPs were selected for inclusion in the multivariate NTCP model based on MLD alone. SNPs associated with an increased risk of severe RP were in genes for TGF{beta}, VEGF, TNF{alpha}, XRCC1 and APEX1. With smoking status included in the multivariate model, the SNPs significantly associated with increased risk of RP were in genes for TGF{beta}, VEGF, and XRCC3. Bootstrap analyses selected a median of 4 SNPs per model fit, with the 6 genes listed above selected most often. Conclusions: This study provides evidence that SNPs can significantly improve the predictive ability of the Lyman MLD model. With a small number of SNPs, it was possible to distinguish cohorts with >50% risk vs <10% risk of RP when they were exposed to high MLDs.

  9. Constraining Distributed Catchment Models by Incorporating Perceptual Understanding of Spatial Hydrologic Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Christopher; Wagener, Thorsten; Freer, Jim; Han, Dawei

    2016-04-01

    Distributed models offer the potential to resolve catchment systems in more detail, and therefore simulate the hydrological impacts of spatial changes in catchment forcing (e.g. landscape change). Such models tend to contain a large number of poorly defined and spatially varying model parameters which are therefore computationally expensive to calibrate. Insufficient data can result in model parameter and structural equifinality, particularly when calibration is reliant on catchment outlet discharge behaviour alone. Evaluating spatial patterns of internal hydrological behaviour has the potential to reveal simulations that, whilst consistent with measured outlet discharge, are qualitatively dissimilar to our perceptual understanding of how the system should behave. We argue that such understanding, which may be derived from stakeholder knowledge across different catchments for certain process dynamics, is a valuable source of information to help reject non-behavioural models, and therefore identify feasible model structures and parameters. The challenge, however, is to convert different sources of often qualitative and/or semi-qualitative information into robust quantitative constraints of model states and fluxes, and combine these sources of information together to reject models within an efficient calibration framework. Here we present the development of a framework to incorporate different sources of data to efficiently calibrate distributed catchment models. For each source of information, an interval or inequality is used to define the behaviour of the catchment system. These intervals are then combined to produce a hyper-volume in state space, which is used to identify behavioural models. We apply the methodology to calibrate the Penn State Integrated Hydrological Model (PIHM) at the Wye catchment, Plynlimon, UK. Outlet discharge behaviour is successfully simulated when perceptual understanding of relative groundwater levels between lowland peat, upland peat

  10. Short-Lived Human Umbilical Cord-Blood-Derived Neural Stem Cells Influence the Endogenous Secretome and Increase the Number of Endogenous Neural Progenitors in a Rat Model of Lacunar Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jablonska, Anna; Drela, Katarzyna; Wojcik-Stanaszek, Luiza; Janowski, Miroslaw; Zalewska, Teresa; Lukomska, Barbara

    2016-11-01

    Stroke is the leading cause of severe disability, and lacunar stroke is related to cognitive decline and hemiparesis. There is no effective treatment for the majority of patients with stroke. Thus, stem cell-based regenerative medicine has drawn a growing body of attention due to the capabilities for trophic factor expression and neurogenesis enhancement. Moreover, it was shown in an experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) model that even short-lived stem cells can be therapeutic, and we have previously observed that phenomenon indirectly. Here, in a rat model of lacunar stroke, we investigated the molecular mechanisms underlying the positive therapeutic effects of short-lived human umbilical cord-blood-derived neural stem cells (HUCB-NSCs) through the distinct measurement of exogenous human and endogenous rat trophic factors. We have also evaluated neurogenesis and metalloproteinase activity as cellular components of therapeutic activity. As expected, we observed an increased proliferation and migration of progenitors, as well as metalloproteinase activity up to 14 days post transplantation. These changes were most prominent at the 7-day time point when we observed 30 % increases in the number of bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU)-positive cells in HUCB-NSC transplanted animals. The expression of human trophic factors was present until 7 days post transplantation, which correlated well with the survival of the human graft. For these 7 days, the level of messenger RNA (mRNA) in the analyzed trophic factors was from 300-fold for CNTF to 10,000-fold for IGF, much higher compared to constitutive expression in HUCB-NSCs in vitro. What is interesting is that there was no increase in the expression of rat trophic factors during the human graft survival, compared to that in non-transplanted animals. However, there was a prolongation of a period of increased trophic expression until 14 days post transplantation, while, in non-transplanted animals, there was a

  11. Incorporation of defects into the central atoms model of a metallic glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lass, Eric A.; Zhu Aiwu; Shiflet, G.J.; Joseph Poon, S.

    2011-01-01

    The central atoms model (CAM) of a metallic glass is extended to incorporate thermodynamically stable defects, similar to vacancies in a crystalline solid, within the amorphous structure. A bond deficiency (BD), which is the proposed defect present in all metallic glasses, is introduced into the CAM equations. Like vacancies in a crystalline solid, BDs are thermodynamically stable entities because of the increase in entropy associated with their creation, and there is an equilibrium concentration present in the glassy phase. When applied to Cu-Zr and Ni-Zr binary metallic glasses, the concentration of thermally induced BDs surrounding Zr atoms reaches a relatively constant value at the glass transition temperature, regardless of composition within a given glass system. Using this 'critical' defect concentration, the predicted temperatures at which the glass transition is expected to occur are in good agreement with the experimentally determined glass transition temperatures for both alloy systems.

  12. A Microdosimetric-Kinetic Model of Cell Killing by Irradiation from Permanently Incorporated Radionuclides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Roland B

    2018-01-01

    An expression for the surviving fraction of a replicating population of cells exposed to permanently incorporated radionuclide is derived from the microdosimetric-kinetic model. It includes dependency on total implant dose, linear energy transfer (LET), decay rate of the radionuclide, the repair rate of potentially lethal lesions in DNA and the volume doubling time of the target population. This is used to obtain an expression for the biologically effective dose ( BED α / β ) based on the minimum survival achieved by the implant that is equivalent to, and can be compared and combined with, the BED α / β calculated for a fractionated course of radiation treatment. Approximate relationships are presented that are useful in the calculation of BED α / β for alpha- or beta-emitting radionuclides with half-life significantly greater than, or nearly equal to, the approximately 1-h repair half-life of radiation-induced potentially lethal lesions.

  13. Endogenous Pyrogen Physiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beisel, William R.

    1980-01-01

    Discusses the physiology of endogenous pyrogen (EP), the fever-producing factor of cellular origin. Included are: its hormone-like role, its molecular nature, bioassay procedures, cellular production and mechanisms of EP action. (SA)

  14. Incorporation of Hydrogen Bond Angle Dependency into the Generalized Solvation Free Energy Density Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Songling; Hwang, Sungbo; Lee, Sehan; Acree, William E; No, Kyoung Tai

    2018-04-23

    To describe the physically realistic solvation free energy surface of a molecule in a solvent, a generalized version of the solvation free energy density (G-SFED) calculation method has been developed. In the G-SFED model, the contribution from the hydrogen bond (HB) between a solute and a solvent to the solvation free energy was calculated as the product of the acidity of the donor and the basicity of the acceptor of an HB pair. The acidity and basicity parameters of a solute were derived using the summation of acidities and basicities of the respective acidic and basic functional groups of the solute, and that of the solvent was experimentally determined. Although the contribution of HBs to the solvation free energy could be evenly distributed to grid points on the surface of a molecule, the G-SFED model was still inadequate to describe the angle dependency of the HB of a solute with a polarizable continuum solvent. To overcome this shortcoming of the G-SFED model, the contribution of HBs was formulated using the geometric parameters of the grid points described in the HB coordinate system of the solute. We propose an HB angle dependency incorporated into the G-SFED model, i.e., the G-SFED-HB model, where the angular-dependent acidity and basicity densities are defined and parametrized with experimental data. The G-SFED-HB model was then applied to calculate the solvation free energies of organic molecules in water, various alcohols and ethers, and the log P values of diverse organic molecules, including peptides and a protein. Both the G-SFED model and the G-SFED-HB model reproduced the experimental solvation free energies with similar accuracy, whereas the distributions of the SFED on the molecular surface calculated by the G-SFED and G-SFED-HB models were quite different, especially for molecules having HB donors or acceptors. Since the angle dependency of HBs was included in the G-SFED-HB model, the SFED distribution of the G-SFED-HB model is well described

  15. Money, banks and endogenous volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Pere Gomis-Porqueras

    2000-01-01

    In this paper I consider a monetary growth model in which banks provide liquidity, and the government fixes a constant rate of money creation. There are two underlying assets in the economy, money and capital. Money is dominated in rate of return. In contrast to other papers with a larger set of government liabilities, I find a unique equilibrium when agents' risk aversion is moderate. However, indeterminacies and endogenous volatility can be observed when agents are relatively risk averse.

  16. A Non-Isothermal Chemical Lattice Boltzmann Model Incorporating Thermal Reaction Kinetics and Enthalpy Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Bartlett

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The lattice Boltzmann method is an efficient computational fluid dynamics technique that can accurately model a broad range of complex systems. As well as single-phase fluids, it can simulate thermohydrodynamic systems and passive scalar advection. In recent years, it also gained attention as a means of simulating chemical phenomena, as interest in self-organization processes increased. This paper will present a widely-used and versatile lattice Boltzmann model that can simultaneously incorporate fluid dynamics, heat transfer, buoyancy-driven convection, passive scalar advection, chemical reactions and enthalpy changes. All of these effects interact in a physically accurate framework that is simple to code and readily parallelizable. As well as a complete description of the model equations, several example systems will be presented in order to demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the method. New simulations, which analyzed the effect of a reversible reaction on the transport properties of a convecting fluid, will also be described in detail. This extra chemical degree of freedom was utilized by the system to augment its net heat flux. The numerical method outlined in this paper can be readily deployed for a vast range of complex flow problems, spanning a variety of scientific disciplines.

  17. Incorporation of a Wind Generator Model into a Dynamic Power Flow Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angeles-Camacho C.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy is nowadays one of the most cost-effective and practical options for electric generation from renewable resources. However, increased penetration of wind generation causes the power networks to be more depend on, and vulnerable to, the varying wind speed. Modeling is a tool which can provide valuable information about the interaction between wind farms and the power network to which they are connected. This paper develops a realistic characterization of a wind generator. The wind generator model is incorporated into an algorithm to investigate its contribution to the stability of the power network in the time domain. The tool obtained is termed dynamic power flow. The wind generator model takes on account the wind speed and the reactive power consumption by induction generators. Dynamic power flow analysis is carried-out using real wind data at 10-minute time intervals collected for one meteorological station. The generation injected at one point into the network provides active power locally and is found to reduce global power losses. However, the power supplied is time-varying and causes fluctuations in voltage magnitude and power fl ows in transmission lines.

  18. Chemical Atherogenesis: Role of Endogenous and Exogenous Poisons in Disease Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew K. Ross

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Chemical atherogenesis is an emerging field that describes how environmental pollutants and endogenous toxins perturb critical pathways that regulate lipid metabolism and inflammation, thus injuring cells found within the vessel wall. Despite growing awareness of the role of environmental pollutants in the development of cardiovascular disease, the field of chemical atherogenesis can broadly include both exogenous and endogenous poisons and the study of molecular, biochemical, and cellular pathways that become dysregulated during atherosclerosis. This integrated approach is logical because exogenous and endogenous toxins often share the same mechanism of toxicity. Chemical atherogenesis is a truly integrative discipline because it incorporates concepts from several different fields, including biochemistry, chemical biology, pharmacology, and toxicology. This review will provide an overview of this emerging research area, focusing on cellular and animal models of disease.

  19. Chemical Atherogenesis: Role of Endogenous and Exogenous Poisons in Disease Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Matthew K; Matthews, Anberitha T; Mangum, Lee C

    Chemical atherogenesis is an emerging field that describes how environmental pollutants and endogenous toxins perturb critical pathways that regulate lipid metabolism and inflammation, thus injuring cells found within the vessel wall. Despite growing awareness of the role of environmental pollutants in the development of cardiovascular disease, the field of chemical atherogenesis can broadly include both exogenous and endogenous poisons and the study of molecular, biochemical, and cellular pathways that become dysregulated during atherosclerosis. This integrated approach is logical because exogenous and endogenous toxins often share the same mechanism of toxicity. Chemical atherogenesis is a truly integrative discipline because it incorporates concepts from several different fields, including biochemistry, chemical biology, pharmacology, and toxicology. This review will provide an overview of this emerging research area, focusing on cellular and animal models of disease.

  20. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo; Zhao, Shunli; Wu, Guangxin; Zhang, Jieyu; Yang, Zhiliang

    2016-01-01

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  1. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhao, Shunli [Research Institute, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd, Shanghai 201900 (China); Wu, Guangxin [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhang, Jieyu, E-mail: zjy6162@staff.shu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Yang, Zhiliang [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China)

    2016-05-25

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  2. A multi-period, multi-regional generation expansion planning model incorporating unit commitment constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Georgiadis, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A short-term structured investment planning model has been developed. • Unit commitment problem is incorporated into the long-term planning horizon. • Inherent intermittency of renewables is modelled in a comprehensive way. • The impact of CO_2 emission pricing in long-term investment decisions is quantified. • The evolution of system’s marginal price is evaluated for all the planning horizon. - Abstract: This work presents a generic mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model that integrates the unit commitment problem (UCP), i.e., daily energy planning with the long-term generation expansion planning (GEP) framework. Typical daily constraints at an hourly level such as start-up and shut-down related decisions (start-up type, minimum up and down time, synchronization, soak and desynchronization time constraints), ramping limits, system reserve requirements are combined with representative yearly constraints such as power capacity additions, power generation bounds of each unit, peak reserve requirements, and energy policy issues (renewables penetration limits, CO_2 emissions cap and pricing). For modelling purposes, a representative day (24 h) of each month over a number of years has been employed in order to determine the optimal capacity additions, electricity market clearing prices, and daily operational planning of the studied power system. The model has been tested on an illustrative case study of the Greek power system. Our approach aims to provide useful insight into strategic and challenging decisions to be determined by investors and/or policy makers at a national and/or regional level by providing the optimal energy roadmap under real operating and design constraints.

  3. Incorporating H2 Dynamics and Inhibition into a Microbially Based Methanogenesis Model for Restored Wetland Sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, David; Jaffe, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Estimates of global CH4 emissions from wetlands indicate that wetlands are the largest natural source of CH4 to the atmosphere. In this paper, we propose that there is a missing component to these models that should be addressed. CH4 is produced in wetland sediments from the microbial degradation of organic carbon through multiple fermentation steps and methanogenesis pathways. There are multiple sources of carbon for methananogenesis; in vegetated wetland sediments, microbial communities consume root exudates as a major source of organic carbon. In many methane models propionate is used as a model carbon molecule. This simple sugar is fermented into acetate and H2, acetate is transformed to methane and CO2, while the H2 and CO2 are used to form an additional CH4 molecule. The hydrogenotrophic pathway involves the equilibrium of two dissolved gases, CH4 and H2. In an effort to limit CH4 emissions from wetlands, there has been growing interest in finding ways to limit plant transport of soil gases through root systems. Changing planted species, or genetically modifying new species of plants may control this transport of soil gases. While this may decrease the direct emissions of methane, there is little understanding about how H2 dynamics may feedback into overall methane production. The results of an incubation study were combined with a new model of propionate degradation for methanogenesis that also examines other natural parameters (i.e. gas transport through plants). This presentation examines how we would expect this model to behave in a natural field setting with changing sulfate and carbon loading schemes. These changes can be controlled through new plant species and other management practices. Next, we compare the behavior of two variations of this model, with or without the incorporation of H2 interactions, with changing sulfate, carbon loading and root volatilization. Results show that while the models behave similarly there may be a discrepancy of nearly

  4. Estimating disperser abundance using open population models that incorporate data from continuous detection PIT arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh

    2017-01-01

    Autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems continuously detect individually marked organisms at one or more fixed points over long time periods. Estimating abundance using data from autonomous antennae can be challenging, because these systems do not detect unmarked individuals. Here we pair PIT antennae data from a tributary with mark-recapture sampling data in a mainstem river to estimate the number of fish moving from the mainstem to the tributary. We then use our model to estimate abundance of non-native rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that move from the Colorado River to the Little Colorado River (LCR), the latter of which is important spawning and rearing habitat for federally-endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. We estimate 226 rainbow trout (95% CI: 127-370) entered the LCR from October 2013-April 2014. We discuss the challenges of incorporating detections from autonomous PIT antenna systems into mark-recapture population models, particularly in regards to using information about spatial location to estimate movement and detection probabilities.

  5. Incorporating a Wheeled Vehicle Model in a New Monocular Visual Odometry Algorithm for Dynamic Outdoor Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yanhua; Xiong, Guangming; Chen, Huiyan; Lee, Dah-Jye

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a monocular visual odometry algorithm that incorporates a wheeled vehicle model for ground vehicles. The main innovation of this algorithm is to use the single-track bicycle model to interpret the relationship between the yaw rate and side slip angle, which are the two most important parameters that describe the motion of a wheeled vehicle. Additionally, the pitch angle is also considered since the planar-motion hypothesis often fails due to the dynamic characteristics of wheel suspensions and tires in real-world environments. Linearization is used to calculate a closed-form solution of the motion parameters that works as a hypothesis generator in a RAndom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) scheme to reduce the complexity in solving equations involving trigonometric. All inliers found are used to refine the winner solution through minimizing the reprojection error. Finally, the algorithm is applied to real-time on-board visual localization applications. Its performance is evaluated by comparing against the state-of-the-art monocular visual odometry methods using both synthetic data and publicly available datasets over several kilometers in dynamic outdoor environments. PMID:25256109

  6. Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

    2017-12-01

    Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

  7. Incorporating a Wheeled Vehicle Model in a New Monocular Visual Odometry Algorithm for Dynamic Outdoor Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhua Jiang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a monocular visual odometry algorithm that incorporates a wheeled vehicle model for ground vehicles. The main innovation of this algorithm is to use the single-track bicycle model to interpret the relationship between the yaw rate and side slip angle, which are the two most important parameters that describe the motion of a wheeled vehicle. Additionally, the pitch angle is also considered since the planar-motion hypothesis often fails due to the dynamic characteristics of wheel suspensions and tires in real-world environments. Linearization is used to calculate a closed-form solution of the motion parameters that works as a hypothesis generator in a RAndom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC scheme to reduce the complexity in solving equations involving trigonometric. All inliers found are used to refine the winner solution through minimizing the reprojection error. Finally, the algorithm is applied to real-time on-board visual localization applications. Its performance is evaluated by comparing against the state-of-the-art monocular visual odometry methods using both synthetic data and publicly available datasets over several kilometers in dynamic outdoor environments.

  8. Exciton delocalization incorporated drift-diffusion model for bulk-heterojunction organic solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zi Shuai; Sha, Wei E. I.; Choy, Wallace C. H.

    2016-12-01

    Modeling the charge-generation process is highly important to understand device physics and optimize power conversion efficiency of bulk-heterojunction organic solar cells (OSCs). Free carriers are generated by both ultrafast exciton delocalization and slow exciton diffusion and dissociation at the heterojunction interface. In this work, we developed a systematic numerical simulation to describe the charge-generation process by a modified drift-diffusion model. The transport, recombination, and collection of free carriers are incorporated to fully capture the device response. The theoretical results match well with the state-of-the-art high-performance organic solar cells. It is demonstrated that the increase of exciton delocalization ratio reduces the energy loss in the exciton diffusion-dissociation process, and thus, significantly improves the device efficiency, especially for the short-circuit current. By changing the exciton delocalization ratio, OSC performances are comprehensively investigated under the conditions of short-circuit and open-circuit. Particularly, bulk recombination dependent fill factor saturation is unveiled and understood. As a fundamental electrical analysis of the delocalization mechanism, our work is important to understand and optimize the high-performance OSCs.

  9. Evaluation of five dry particle deposition parameterizations for incorporation into atmospheric transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Tanvir R.; Perlinger, Judith A.

    2017-10-01

    the three most influential parameters in all parameterizations. For giant particles (dp = 10 µm), relative humidity was the most influential parameter. Because it is the least complex of the five parameterizations, and it has the greatest accuracy and least uncertainty, we propose that the ZH14 parameterization is currently superior for incorporation into atmospheric transport models.

  10. Evaluation of five dry particle deposition parameterizations for incorporation into atmospheric transport models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. R. Khan

    2017-10-01

    µm, friction velocity was one of the three most influential parameters in all parameterizations. For giant particles (dp  =  10 µm, relative humidity was the most influential parameter. Because it is the least complex of the five parameterizations, and it has the greatest accuracy and least uncertainty, we propose that the ZH14 parameterization is currently superior for incorporation into atmospheric transport models.

  11. Spinal motor control system incorporates an internal model of limb dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimansky, Y P

    2000-10-01

    The existence and utilization of an internal representation of the controlled object is one of the most important features of the functioning of neural motor control systems. This study demonstrates that this property already exists at the level of the spinal motor control system (SMCS), which is capable of generating motor patterns for reflex rhythmic movements, such as locomotion and scratching, without the aid of the peripheral afferent feedback, but substantially modifies the generated activity in response to peripheral afferent stimuli. The SMCS is presented as an optimal control system whose optimality requires that it incorporate an internal model (IM) of the controlled object's dynamics. A novel functional mechanism for the integration of peripheral sensory signals with the corresponding predictive output from the IM, the summation of information precision (SIP) is proposed. In contrast to other models in which the correction of the internal representation of the controlled object's state is based on the calculation of a mismatch between the internal and external information sources, the SIP mechanism merges the information from these sources in order to optimize the precision of the controlled object's state estimate. It is demonstrated, based on scratching in decerebrate cats as an example of the spinal control of goal-directed movements, that the results of computer modeling agree with the experimental observations related to the SMCS's reactions to phasic and tonic peripheral afferent stimuli. It is also shown that the functional requirements imposed by the mathematical model of the SMCS comply with the current knowledge about the related properties of spinal neuronal circuitry. The crucial role of the spinal presynaptic inhibition mechanism in the neuronal implementation of SIP is elucidated. Important differences between the IM and a state predictor employed for compensating for a neural reflex time delay are discussed.

  12. Incorporating Geochemical And Microbial Kinetics In Reactive Transport Models For Generation Of Acid Rock Drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andre, B. J.; Rajaram, H.; Silverstein, J.

    2010-12-01

    diffusion model at the scale of a single rock is developed incorporating the proposed kinetic rate expressions. Simulations of initiation, washout and AMD flows are discussed to gain a better understanding of the role of porosity, effective diffusivity and reactive surface area in generating AMD. Simulations indicate that flow boundary conditions control generation of acid rock drainage as porosity increases.

  13. The Endogenous Exposome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Jun; Mutlu, Esra; Sharma, Vyom; Collins, Leonard; Bodnar, Wanda; Yu, Rui; Lai, Yongquan; Moeller, Benjamin; Lu, Kun; Swenberg, James

    2014-01-01

    The concept of the Exposome, is a compilation of diseases and one’s lifetime exposure to chemicals, whether the exposure comes from environmental, dietary, or occupational exposures; or endogenous chemicals that are formed from normal metabolism, inflammation, oxidative stress, lipid peroxidation, infections, and other natural metabolic processes such as alteration of the gut microbiome. In this review, we have focused on the Endogenous Exposome, the DNA damage that arises from the production of endogenous electrophilic molecules in our cells. It provides quantitative data on endogenous DNA damage and its relationship to mutagenesis, with emphasis on when exogenous chemical exposures that produce identical DNA adducts to those arising from normal metabolism cause significant increases in total identical DNA adducts. We have utilized stable isotope labeled chemical exposures of animals and cells, so that accurate relationships between endogenous and exogenous exposures can be determined. Advances in mass spectrometry have vastly increased both the sensitivity and accuracy of such studies. Furthermore, we have clear evidence of which sources of exposure drive low dose biology that results in mutations and disease. These data provide much needed information to impact quantitative risk assessments, in the hope of moving towards the use of science, rather than default assumptions. PMID:24767943

  14. Effect of human vascular endothelial growth factor gene transfer on endogenous vascular endothelial growth factor mRNA expression in a rat fibroblast and osteoblast culture model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ru; Li, Claire H; Nauth, Aaron; McKee, Michael D; Schemitsch, Emil H

    2010-09-01

    Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) plays an important role in promoting angiogenesis and osteogenesis during fracture repair. Our previous studies have shown that cell-based VEGF gene therapy enhances bone healing of a rabbit tibia segmental bone defect in vivo. The aim of this project was to examine the effect of exogenous human VEGF on the endogenous rat VEGF messenger RNA (mRNA) expression in a cell-based gene transfer model. Rat fibroblasts and osteoblasts were harvested from the dermal tissue and periosteum, respectively, of Fisher 344 rats. The cells were then cultured and transfected with pcDNA-human VEGF using Superfect reagent (Qiagen). Four experimental groups were created: 1) fibroblast-VEGF; 2) osteoblast-VEGF; 3) nontransfected fibroblast controls; and 4) nontransfected osteoblast controls. The cultured cells were harvested at 1, 3, and 7 days after the gene transfection. The total mRNA was extracted (Trizol; Invitrogen); both human VEGF and rat VEGF mRNA were measured by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and quantified by VisionWorksLS. The human VEGF165 mRNA was detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction from transfected fibroblasts and osteoblasts at 1, 3, and 7 days after gene transfection. The human VEGF165 levels peaked at Day 1 and then gradually reduced expression in both transfected fibroblasts and osteoblasts. Two endogenous rat VEGF isoforms were detected in this cell culture model: rat VEGF120 and rat VEGF164. We compared the rat VEGF120 and rat VEGF164 expression level of the fibroblasts or osteoblasts that were transfected with human VEGF165, with nontransfected control cells. Both the transfected fibroblasts and osteoblasts showed greater expression of rat VEGF164 than nontransfected controls at Day 1 (peak level) and Day 3, but not at Day 7. The expression of rat VEGF120 was lower in transfected fibroblasts, but higher in transfected osteoblasts, than the relevant control groups at any time point

  15. Incorporating Prognostic Marine Nitrogen Fixers and Related Bio-Physical Feedbacks in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, H.; Ilyina, T.; Six, K. D.

    2016-02-01

    Marine nitrogen fixers play a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycles by providing a major source of `new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Furthermore, nitrogen fixers may regionally have a direct impact on ocean physics and hence the climate system as they form extensive surface mats which can increase light absorption and surface albedo and reduce the momentum input by wind. Resulting alterations in temperature and stratification may feed back on nitrogen fixers' growth itself.We incorporate nitrogen fixers as a prognostic 3D tracer in the ocean biogeochemical component (HAMOCC) of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model and assess for the first time the impact of related bio-physical feedbacks on biogeochemistry and the climate system.The model successfully reproduces recent estimates of global nitrogen fixation rates, as well as the observed distribution of nitrogen fixers, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. First results indicate that including bio-physical feedbacks has considerable effects on the upper ocean physics in this region. Light absorption by nitrogen fixers leads locally to surface heating, subsurface cooling, and mixed layer depth shoaling in the subtropical gyres. As a result, equatorial upwelling is increased, leading to surface cooling at the equator. This signal is damped by the effect of the reduced wind stress due to the presence of cyanobacteria mats, which causes a reduction in the wind-driven circulation, and hence a reduction in equatorial upwelling. The increase in surface albedo due to nitrogen fixers has only inconsiderable effects. The response of nitrogen fixers' growth to the alterations in temperature and stratification varies regionally. Simulations with the fully coupled Earth system model are in progress to assess the implications of the biologically induced changes in upper ocean physics for the global climate system.

  16. Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models with Autoregressive Disturbances in the Presence of Endogenous Regressors and Many Instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Jin

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the generalized spatial two stage least squares (GS2SLS estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive disturbances when there are endogenous regressors with many valid instruments. Using many instruments may improve the efficiency of estimators asymptotically, but the bias might be large in finite samples, making the inference inaccurate. We consider the case that the number of instruments K increases with, but at a rate slower than, the sample size, and derive the approximate mean square errors (MSE that account for the trade-offs between the bias and variance, for both the GS2SLS estimator and a bias-corrected GS2SLS estimator. A criterion function for the optimal K selection can be based on the approximate MSEs. Monte Carlo experiments are provided to show the performance of our procedure of choosing K.

  17. Using a cognitive architecture in educational and recreational games : How to incorporate a model in your App

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taatgen, Niels A.; de Weerd, Harmen; Reitter, David; Ritter, Frank

    2016-01-01

    We present a Swift re-implementation of the ACT-R cognitive architecture, which can be used to quickly build iOS Apps that incorporate an ACT-R model as a core feature. We discuss how this implementation can be used in an example model, and explore the breadth of possibilities by presenting six Apps

  18. Adolescent Decision-Making Processes regarding University Entry: A Model Incorporating Cultural Orientation, Motivation and Occupational Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup

    2013-01-01

    This study tested a newly developed model of the cognitive decision-making processes of senior high school students related to university entry. The model incorporated variables derived from motivation theory (i.e. expectancy-value theory and the theory of reasoned action), literature on cultural orientation and occupational considerations. A…

  19. Incorporating genetic variation into a model of budburst phenology of coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Gould; Constance A. Harrington; Bradley J. St Clair

    2011-01-01

    Models to predict budburst and other phenological events in plants are needed to forecast how climate change may impact ecosystems and for the development of mitigation strategies. Differences among genotypes are important to predicting phenological events in species that show strong clinal variation in adaptive traits. We present a model that incorporates the effects...

  20. A diagnostic model incorporating P50 sensory gating and neuropsychological tests for schizophrenia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Chi Shan

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Endophenotypes in schizophrenia research is a contemporary approach to studying this heterogeneous mental illness, and several candidate neurophysiological markers (e.g. P50 sensory gating and neuropsychological tests (e.g. Continuous Performance Test (CPT and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST have been proposed. However, the clinical utility of a single marker appears to be limited. In the present study, we aimed to construct a diagnostic model incorporating P50 sensory gating with other neuropsychological tests in order to improve the clinical utility. METHODS: We recruited clinically stable outpatients meeting DSM-IV criteria of schizophrenia and age- and gender-matched healthy controls. Participants underwent P50 sensory gating experimental sessions and batteries of neuropsychological tests, including CPT, WCST and Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale Third Edition (WAIS-III. RESULTS: A total of 106 schizophrenia patients and 74 healthy controls were enrolled. Compared with healthy controls, the patient group had significantly a larger S2 amplitude, and thus poorer P50 gating ratio (gating ratio = S2/S1. In addition, schizophrenia patients had a poorer performance on neuropsychological tests. We then developed a diagnostic model by using multivariable logistic regression analysis to differentiate patients from healthy controls. The final model included the following covariates: abnormal P50 gating (defined as P50 gating ratio >0.4, three subscales derived from the WAIS-III (Arithmetic, Block Design, and Performance IQ, sensitivity index from CPT and smoking status. This model had an adequate accuracy (concordant percentage = 90.4%; c-statistic = 0.904; Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test, p = 0.64>0.05. CONCLUSION: To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest study to date using P50 sensory gating in subjects of Chinese ethnicity and the first to use P50 sensory gating along with other neuropsychological tests

  1. Incorporation of Fine-Grained Sediment Erodibility Measurements into Sediment Transport Modeling, Capitol Lake, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Andrew W.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Elias, Edwin; Jones, Craig

    2008-01-01

    lab with Sedflume, an apparatus for measuring sediment erosion-parameters. In this report, we present results of the characterization of fine-grained sediment erodibility within Capitol Lake. The erodibility data were incorporated into the previously developed hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. Model simulations using the measured erodibility parameters were conducted to provide more robust estimates of the overall magnitudes and spatial patterns of sediment transport resulting from restoration of the Deschutes Estuary.

  2. Incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergopolan, N.; Chaney, N.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    The increasing demand for water, energy, and food is leading to unsustainable groundwater and surface water exploitation. As a result, the human interactions with the environment, through alteration of land and water resources dynamics, need to be reflected in hydrologic and land surface models (LSMs). Advancements in representing human-water dynamics still leave challenges related to the lack of water use data, water allocation algorithms, and modeling scales. This leads to an over-simplistic representation of human water use in large-scale models; this is in turn leads to an inability to capture extreme events signatures and to provide reliable information at stakeholder-level spatial scales. The emergence of hyper-resolution models allows one to address these challenges by simulating the hydrological processes and interactions with the human impacts at field scales. We integrated human-water dynamics into HydroBlocks - a hyper-resolution, field-scale resolving LSM. HydroBlocks explicitly solves the field-scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs); and its HRU-based model parallelization allows computationally efficient long-term simulations as well as ensemble predictions. The implemented human-water dynamics include groundwater and surface water abstraction to meet agricultural, domestic and industrial water demands. Furthermore, a supply-demand water allocation scheme based on relative costs helps to determine sectoral water use requirements and tradeoffs. A set of HydroBlocks simulations over the Midwest United States (daily, at 30-m spatial resolution for 30 years) are used to quantify the irrigation impacts on water availability. The model captures large reductions in total soil moisture and water table levels, as well as spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and runoff peaks, with their intensity related to the adopted water management strategy. By incorporating human-water dynamics in

  3. Cytokines as endogenous pyrogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinarello, C A

    1999-03-01

    Cytokines are pleiotropic molecules mediating several pathologic processes. Long before the discovery of cytokines as immune system growth factors or as bone marrow stimulants, investigators learned a great deal about cytokines when they studied them as the endogenous mediators of fever. The terms "granulocytic" or "endogenous pyrogen" were used to describe substances with the biologic property of fever induction. Today, we recognize that pyrogenicity is a fundamental biologic property of several cytokines and hence the clinically recognizeable property of fever links host perturbations during disease with fundamental perturbations in cell biology. In this review, the discoveries made on endogenous pyrogens are revisited, with insights into the importance of the earlier work to the present-day understanding of cytokines in health and in disease.

  4. Incorporation of GRACE Data into a Bayesian Model for Groundwater Drought Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.; Porter, A.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater drought, defined as the sustained occurrence of below average availability of groundwater, is marked by below average water levels in aquifers and reduced flows to groundwater-fed rivers and wetlands. The impact of groundwater drought on ecosystems, agriculture, municipal water supply, and the energy sector is an increasingly important global issue. However, current drought monitors heavily rely on precipitation and vegetative stress indices to characterize the timing, duration, and severity of drought events. The paucity of in situ observations of aquifer levels is a substantial obstacle to the development of systems to monitor groundwater drought in drought-prone areas, particularly in developing countries. Observations from the NASA/German Space Agency's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been used to estimate changes in groundwater storage over areas with sparse point measurements. This study incorporates GRACE total water storage observations into a Bayesian framework to assess the performance of a probabilistic model for monitoring groundwater drought based on remote sensing data. Overall, it is hoped that these methods will improve global drought preparedness and risk reduction by providing information on groundwater drought necessary to manage its impacts on ecosystems, as well as on the agricultural, municipal, and energy sectors.

  5. Incorporating organizational factors into probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants through canonical probabilistic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galan, S.F. [Dpto. de Inteligencia Artificial, E.T.S.I. Informatica (UNED), Juan del Rosal, 16, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: seve@dia.uned.es; Mosleh, A. [2100A Marie Mount Hall, Materials and Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)]. E-mail: mosleh@umd.edu; Izquierdo, J.M. [Area de Modelado y Simulacion, Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Justo Dorado, 11, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: jmir@csn.es

    2007-08-15

    The {omega}-factor approach is a method that explicitly incorporates organizational factors into Probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Bayesian networks (BNs) are the underlying formalism used in this approach. They have a structural part formed by a graph whose nodes represent organizational variables, and a parametric part that consists of conditional probabilities, each of them quantifying organizational influences between one variable and its parents in the graph. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we discuss some important limitations of current procedures in the {omega}-factor approach for either assessing conditional probabilities from experts or estimating them from data. We illustrate the discussion with an example that uses data from Licensee Events Reports of nuclear power plants for the estimation task. Second, we introduce significant improvements in the way BNs for the {omega}-factor approach can be constructed, so that parameter acquisition becomes easier and more intuitive. The improvements are based on the use of noisy-OR gates as model of multicausal interaction between each BN node and its parents.

  6. Incorporating organizational factors into probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants through canonical probabilistic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galan, S.F.; Mosleh, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    The ω-factor approach is a method that explicitly incorporates organizational factors into Probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Bayesian networks (BNs) are the underlying formalism used in this approach. They have a structural part formed by a graph whose nodes represent organizational variables, and a parametric part that consists of conditional probabilities, each of them quantifying organizational influences between one variable and its parents in the graph. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we discuss some important limitations of current procedures in the ω-factor approach for either assessing conditional probabilities from experts or estimating them from data. We illustrate the discussion with an example that uses data from Licensee Events Reports of nuclear power plants for the estimation task. Second, we introduce significant improvements in the way BNs for the ω-factor approach can be constructed, so that parameter acquisition becomes easier and more intuitive. The improvements are based on the use of noisy-OR gates as model of multicausal interaction between each BN node and its parents

  7. Endogenous innovation, the economy and the environment : impacts of a technology-based modelling approach for energy-intensive industries in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, C.; Meyer, B.; Nathani, C.; Schleich, J.

    2007-01-01

    Policy simulations in environmental-economic models are influenced by the modelling of technological change. However, environmental-economic models have generally treated technological change as exogenous. This paper presented simulations with a new modelling approach in which technological change was portrayed and linked to actual production processes in 3 industry sectors in Germany, namely iron and steel; cement; and, pulp and paper. Technological choice was modelled via investments in new production process lines. The generic modelling procedure for all 3 industry sectors was presented along with an overview of the relevant sector-specific modelling results and the integration into the macro-economic model PANTA RHEI. The new modelling approach endogenizes technological change. As such, it considers that policy interventions may affect the rate and direction of technological progress. Carbon tax simulations were also performed to investigate the influence of a tax in both the new and conventional modelling approach. For the energy- and capital-intensive industries considered in this study, the conventional top-down approach overestimated the short-term possibilities to adapt to higher carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) prices in the early years. Since the new approach includes policy-induced technological change and process shifts, it also captures the long-term effects on CO 2 emissions far beyond the initial price impulse. It was concluded that the new modelling approach results in significantly higher emission reductions than the conventional approach. Therefore, the estimated costs of the climate policy are lower using the new modelling approach. 37 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs., 1 appendix

  8. An evaluation of a paediatric radiation oncology teaching programme incorporating a SCORPIO teaching model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahern, Verity; Klein, Linda; Bentvelzen, Adam; Garlan, Karen; Jeffery, Heather

    2011-04-01

    Many radiation oncology registrars have no exposure to paediatrics during their training. To address this, the Paediatric Special Interest Group of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists has convened a biennial teaching course since 1997. The 2009 course incorporated the use of a Structured, Clinical, Objective-Referenced, Problem-orientated, Integrated and Organized (SCORPIO) teaching model for small group tutorials. This study evaluates whether the paediatric radiation oncology curriculum can be adapted to the SCORPIO teaching model and to evaluate the revised course from the registrars' perspective. Teaching and learning resources included a pre-course reading list, a lecture series programme and a SCORPIO workshop. Three evaluation instruments were developed: an overall Course Evaluation Survey for all participants, a SCORPIO Workshop Survey for registrars and a Teacher's SCORPIO Workshop Survey. Forty-five radiation oncology registrars, 14 radiation therapists and five paediatric oncology registrars attended. Seventy-three per cent (47/64) of all participants completed the Course Evaluation Survey and 95% (38/40) of registrars completed the SCORPIO Workshop Survey. All teachers completed the Teacher's SCORPIO Survey (10/10). The overall educational experience was rated as good or excellent by 93% (43/47) of respondents. Ratings of satisfaction with lecture sessions were predominantly good or excellent. Registrars gave the SCORPIO workshop high ratings on each of 10 aspects of quality, with 82% allocating an excellent rating overall for the SCORPIO activity. Both registrars and teachers recommended more time for the SCORPIO stations. The 2009 course met the educational needs of the radiation oncology registrars and the SCORPIO workshop was a highly valued educational component. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Medical Imaging and Radiation Oncology © 2011 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists.

  9. Global dynamics of a PDE model for aedes aegypti mosquitoe incorporating female sexual preference

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana; Agusto, Folashade B.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study the long time dynamics of a reaction diffusion system, describing the spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are the primary cause of dengue infection. The system incorporates a control attempt via the sterile insect

  10. Contagion risk in endogenous financial networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Shouwei; Sui, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose an endogenous financial network model. • Endogenous networks include interbank networks, inter-firm networks and bank-firm networks. • We investigate contagion risk in endogenous financial networks. - Abstract: In this paper, we investigate contagion risk in an endogenous financial network, which is characterized by credit relationships connecting downstream and upstream firms, interbank credit relationships and credit relationships connecting firms and banks. The findings suggest that: increasing the number of potential lenders randomly selected can lead to an increase in the number of bank bankruptcies, while the number of firm bankruptcies presents a trend of increase after the decrease; after the intensity of choice parameter rises beyond a threshold, the number of bankruptcies in three sectors (downstream firms, upstream firms and banks) shows a relatively large margin of increase, and keeps at a relatively high level; there exists different trends for bankruptcies in different sectors with the change of the parameter of credits’ interest rates.

  11. Evolution of endogenous analgesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niesters, Marieke

    2014-01-01

    Endogenous pain modulation is a complex phenomenon involved in the perception of pain. It consists of top-down inhibitory and facilitatory pathways that originate at higher sites within the central nervous system and converge at dorsal horn neurons in the spinal cord, to modulate incoming afferent

  12. How Do the Richest 1% Owns 50% of Wealth in a Small-Open Growth Model with Endogenous Wealth and Human Capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper extends the growth model for a closed national economy by Zhang (2015 to a small-open economy. We attempt to explain some economic mechanisms of how the richest one per cent of the population own 50% of national wealth. We consider endogenous wealth and human capital accumulation by heterogeneous households with different preferences and learning abilities as the main determinants of growth and inequality. We describe the production technologies and economic structure on the basis of the Uzawa two-sector model. By applying Zhang’s concept of disposable income and approach to household behavior, we describe consumers’ wealth accumulation and consumption behavior. We model human capital accumulation on the basis of Arrow’s learning by doing and Zhang’s creativity with leisure. We simulate the model with three groups of the population, the rich 1 %, the middle 69%, and the poor 20%. We demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point at which the rich 1% own more than half of the national wealth and the poor 20% less than 10% of the national wealth. We show how the system moves to the equilibrium from an initial state and confirm that the equilibrium point is stable. We also conduct comparative dynamic analysis.

  13. Incorporating classic adsorption isotherms into modern surface complexation models: implications for sorption of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulik, D.A.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Computer-aided surface complexation models (SCM) tend to replace the classic adsorption isotherm (AI) analysis in describing mineral-water interface reactions such as radionuclide sorption onto (hydr) oxides and clays. Any site-binding SCM based on the mole balance of surface sites, in fact, reproduces the (competitive) Langmuir isotherm, optionally amended with electrostatic Coulomb's non-ideal term. In most SCM implementations, it is difficult to incorporate real-surface phenomena (site heterogeneity, lateral interactions, surface condensation) described in classic AI approaches other than Langmuir's. Thermodynamic relations between SCMs and AIs that remained obscure in the past have been recently clarified using new definitions of standard and reference states of surface species [1,2]. On this basis, a method for separating the Langmuir AI into ideal (linear) and non-ideal parts [2] was applied to multi-dentate Langmuir, Frumkin, and BET isotherms. The aim of this work was to obtain the surface activity coefficient terms that make the SCM site mole balance constraints obsolete and, in this way, extend thermodynamic SCMs to cover sorption phenomena described by the respective AIs. The multi-dentate Langmuir term accounts for the site saturation with n-dentate surface species, as illustrated on modeling bi-dentate U VI complexes on goethite or SiO 2 surfaces. The Frumkin term corrects for the lateral interactions of the mono-dentate surface species; in particular, it has the same form as the Coulombic term of the constant-capacitance EDL combined with the Langmuir term. The BET term (three parameters) accounts for more than a monolayer adsorption up to the surface condensation; it can potentially describe the surface precipitation of nickel and other cations on hydroxides and clay minerals. All three non-ideal terms (in GEM SCMs implementation [1,2]) by now are used for non-competing surface species only. Upon 'surface dilution

  14. Development of transgenic rats producing human β-amyloid precursor protein as a model for Alzheimer's disease: Transgene and endogenous APP genes are regulated tissue-specifically

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan Anthony WS

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alzheimer's disease (AD is a devastating neurodegenerative disorder that affects a large and growing number of elderly individuals. In addition to idiopathic disease, AD is also associated with autosomal dominant inheritance, which causes a familial form of AD (FAD. Some instances of FAD have been linked to mutations in the β-amyloid protein precursor (APP. Although there are numerous mouse AD models available, few rat AD models, which have several advantages over mice, have been generated. Results Fischer 344 rats expressing human APP driven by the ubiquitin-C promoter were generated via lentiviral vector infection of Fischer 344 zygotes. We generated two separate APP-transgenic rat lines, APP21 and APP31. Serum levels of human amyloid-beta (Aβ40 were 298 pg/ml for hemizygous and 486 pg/ml for homozygous APP21 animals. Serum Aβ42 levels in APP21 homozygous rats were 135 pg/ml. Immunohistochemistry in brain showed that the human APP transgene was expressed in neurons, but not in glial cells. These findings were consistent with independent examination of enhanced green fluorescent protein (eGFP in the brains of eGFP-transgenic rats. APP21 and APP31 rats expressed 7.5- and 3-times more APP mRNA, respectively, than did wild-type rats. Northern blots showed that the human APP transgene, driven by the ubiquitin-C promoter, is expressed significantly more in brain, kidney and lung compared to heart and liver. A similar expression pattern was also seen for the endogenous rat APP. The unexpected similarity in the tissue-specific expression patterns of endogenous rat APP and transgenic human APP mRNAs suggests regulatory elements within the cDNA sequence of APP. Conclusion This manuscript describes the generation of APP-transgenic inbred Fischer 344 rats. These are the first human AD model rat lines generated by lentiviral infection. The APP21 rat line expresses high levels of human APP and could be a useful model for AD. Tissue

  15. Endogenous scheduling preferences and congestion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Small, Kenneth

    2010-01-01

    and leisure, but agglomeration economies at home and at work lead to scheduling preferences forming endogenously. Using bottleneck congestion technology, we obtain an equilibrium queuing pattern consistent with a general version of the Vickrey bottleneck model. However, the policy implications are different....... Compared to the predictions of an analyst observing untolled equilibrium and taking scheduling preferences as exogenous, we find that both the optimal capacity and the marginal external cost of congestion have changed. The benefits of tolling are greater, and the optimal time varying toll is different....

  16. A brain slice culture model for studies of endogenous and exogenous precursor cell migration in the rostral migratory stream

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanvig, Mette; Blaabjerg, Morten; Andersen, Rikke K

    2009-01-01

    The rostral migratory stream (RMS) is the main pathway by which newly born subventricular zone (SVZ) cells reach the olfactory bulb (OB) in rodents. This migration has been well studied in vivo, but an organotypic in vitro model would facilitate more experimental investigations. Here we introduce...

  17. Incorporating a Time Horizon in Rate-of-Return Estimations: Discounted Cash Flow Model in Electric Transmission Rate Cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatterjee, Bishu; Sharp, Peter A.

    2006-01-01

    Electric transmission and other rate cases use a form of the discounted cash flow model with a single long-term growth rate to estimate rates of return on equity. It cannot incorporate information about the appropriate time horizon for which analysts' estimates of earnings growth have predictive powers. Only a non-constant growth model can explicitly recognize the importance of the time horizon in an ROE calculation. (author)

  18. Strategies for Incorporating Women-Specific Sexuality Education into Addiction Treatment Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Raven

    2007-01-01

    This paper advocates for the incorporation of a women-specific sexuality curriculum in the addiction treatment process to aid in sexual healing and provide for aftercare issues. Sexuality in addiction treatment modalities is often approached from a sex-negative stance, or that of sexual victimization. Sexual issues are viewed as addictive in and…

  19. Mechanisms in endogenous leukemia virus induction by radiation and chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tennant, R.W.; Rascati, R.J.; Lavelle, G.C.

    1976-01-01

    A model of endogenous leukemia virus induction in AKR strain mouse cells based on two distinct types of alterations in cellular or proviral DNA is presented. The first type are non-repairable alterations, such as those caused by the incorporation of halogenated pyrimidines; the second type are repairable lesions, such as those caused by irradiation or certain other chemicals. The production of non-repairable lesions leads to the formation of a stable, proviral state which is dependent upon cell division for complete virus expression. A stable provirus intermediate state is not demonstrable in cells induced by treatments which cause repairable lesions, since replication of damaged or altered DNA must occur before the lesions are removed by repair synthesis. Experimental support for this model is presented

  20. Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models: Applicarion to peripheral euro area countries

    OpenAIRE

    Gómez-Puig, Marta; Singh, Manish Kumar; Sosvilla Rivero, Simón, 1961-

    2018-01-01

    This paper highlights the role of multilateral creditors (i.e., the ECB, IMF, ESM etc.) and their preferred creditor status in explaining the sovereign default risk of peripheral euro area (EA) countries. Incorporating lessons from sovereign debt crises in general, and from the Greek debt restructuring in particular, we define the priority structure of sovereigns' creditors that is most relevant for peripheral EA countries in severe crisis episodes. This new priority structure of creditors, t...

  1. Quantifying the timescales over which exogenous and endogenous conditions affect soil respiration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron-Gafford, Greg A; Cable, Jessica M; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Scott, Russell L; Huxman, Travis E; Jenerette, G Darrel; Ogle, Kiona

    2014-04-01

    Understanding how exogenous and endogenous factors and above-ground-below-ground linkages modulate carbon dynamics is difficult because of the influences of antecedent conditions. For example, there are variable lags between above-ground assimilation and below-ground efflux, and the duration of antecedent periods are often arbitrarily assigned. Nonetheless, developing models linking above- and below-ground processes is crucial for estimating current and future carbon dynamics. We collected data on leaf-level photosynthesis (Asat ) and soil respiration (Rsoil ) in different microhabitats (under shrubs vs under bunchgrasses) in the Sonoran Desert. We evaluated timescales over which endogenous and exogenous factors control Rsoil by analyzing data in the context of a semimechanistic temperature-response model of Rsoil that incorporated effects of antecedent exogenous (soil water) and endogenous (Asat ) conditions. For both microhabitats, antecedent soil water and Asat significantly affected Rsoil , but Rsoil under shrubs was more sensitive to Asat than that under bunchgrasses. Photosynthetic rates 1 and 3 d before the Rsoil measurement were most important in determining current-day Rsoil under bunchgrasses and shrubs, respectively, indicating a significant lag effect. Endogenous and exogenous controls are critical drivers of Rsoil , but the relative importance and the timescale over which each factor affects Rsoil depends on above-ground vegetation and ecosystem structure characteristics. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  2. Vaccination directed against the human endogenous retrovirus-K (HERV-K) gag protein slows HERV-K gag expressing cell growth in a murine model system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Benjamin; Fischer, Katrin; Sliva, Katja; Schnierle, Barbara S

    2014-03-26

    Human endogenous retroviruses (HERVs) are remnants of ancestral infections and chromosomally integrated in all cells of an individual, are transmitted only vertically and are defective in viral replication. However enhanced expression of HERV-K accompanied by the emergence of anti-HERV-K-directed immune responses has been observed inter-alia in HIV-infected individuals and tumor patients. Therefore HERV-K might serve as a tumor-specific antigen or even as a constant target for the development of an HIV vaccine. To verify our hypothesis, we tested the immunogenicity of HERV-K Gag by using a recombinant vaccinia virus (MVA-HKcon) expressing the HERV-K Gag protein and established an animal model to test its vaccination efficacy. Murine renal carcinoma cells (Renca) were genetically altered to express E. coli beta-galactosidase (RLZ cells) and the HERV-K Gag protein (RLZ-HKGag cells). Subcutaneous application of RLZ-HKGag cells into syngenic BALB/c mice resulted in the formation of local tumors in MVA vaccinated mice. MVA-HKcon vaccination reduced the tumor growth. Furthermore, intravenous injection of RLZ-HKGag cells led to the formation of pulmonary metastases. Vaccination of tumor-bearing mice with MVA-HKcon drastically reduced the number of pulmonary RLZ-HKGag tumor nodules compared to vaccination with wild-type MVA. The data demonstrate that HERV-K Gag is a useful target for vaccine development and might offer new treatment opportunities for cancer patients.

  3. Incorporation of oxygen contribution by plant roots into classical dissolved oxygen deficit model for a subsurface flow treatment wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezbaruah, Achintya N; Zhang, Tian C

    2009-01-01

    It has been long established that plants play major roles in a treatment wetland. However, the role of plants has not been incorporated into wetland models. This study tries to incorporate wetland plants into a biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) model so that the relative contributions of the aerobic and anaerobic processes to meeting BOD can be quantitatively determined. The classical dissolved oxygen (DO) deficit model has been modified to simulate the DO curve for a field subsurface flow constructed wetland (SFCW) treating municipal wastewater. Sensitivities of model parameters have been analyzed. Based on the model it is predicted that in the SFCW under study about 64% BOD are degraded through aerobic routes and 36% is degraded anaerobically. While not exhaustive, this preliminary work should serve as a pointer for further research in wetland model development and to determine the values of some of the parameters used in the modified DO deficit and associated BOD model. It should be noted that nitrogen cycle and effects of temperature have not been addressed in these models for simplicity of model formulation. This paper should be read with this caveat in mind.

  4. A codimension-2 bifurcation controlling endogenous bursting activity and pulse-triggered responses of a neuron model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, William H; Cymbalyuk, Gennady S

    2014-01-01

    The dynamics of individual neurons are crucial for producing functional activity in neuronal networks. An open question is how temporal characteristics can be controlled in bursting activity and in transient neuronal responses to synaptic input. Bifurcation theory provides a framework to discover generic mechanisms addressing this question. We present a family of mechanisms organized around a global codimension-2 bifurcation. The cornerstone bifurcation is located at the intersection of the border between bursting and spiking and the border between bursting and silence. These borders correspond to the blue sky catastrophe bifurcation and the saddle-node bifurcation on an invariant circle (SNIC) curves, respectively. The cornerstone bifurcation satisfies the conditions for both the blue sky catastrophe and SNIC. The burst duration and interburst interval increase as the inverse of the square root of the difference between the corresponding bifurcation parameter and its bifurcation value. For a given set of burst duration and interburst interval, one can find the parameter values supporting these temporal characteristics. The cornerstone bifurcation also determines the responses of silent and spiking neurons. In a silent neuron with parameters close to the SNIC, a pulse of current triggers a single burst. In a spiking neuron with parameters close to the blue sky catastrophe, a pulse of current temporarily silences the neuron. These responses are stereotypical: the durations of the transient intervals-the duration of the burst and the duration of latency to spiking-are governed by the inverse-square-root laws. The mechanisms described here could be used to coordinate neuromuscular control in central pattern generators. As proof of principle, we construct small networks that control metachronal-wave motor pattern exhibited in locomotion. This pattern is determined by the phase relations of bursting neurons in a simple central pattern generator modeled by a chain of

  5. A mathematical model to determine incorporated quantities of radioactivity from the measured photometric values of tritium-autoradiographs in neuroanatomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennissen, J.J.

    1981-01-01

    The mathematical/empirical model developed in this paper helps to determine the incorporated radioactivity from the measured photometric values and the exposure time T. Possible errors of autoradiography due to the exposure time or the preparation are taken into consideration by the empirical model. It is shown that the error of appr. 400% appearing in the sole comparison of the measured photometric values can be corrected. The model is valid for neuroanatomy as optical nerves, i.e. neuroanatomical material, were used to develop it. Its application also to the other sections of the central nervous system seems to be justified due to the reduction of errors thus achieved. (orig.) [de

  6. A computational model incorporating neural stem cell dynamics reproduces glioma incidence across the lifespan in the human population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Bauer

    Full Text Available Glioma is the most common form of primary brain tumor. Demographically, the risk of occurrence increases until old age. Here we present a novel computational model to reproduce the probability of glioma incidence across the lifespan. Previous mathematical models explaining glioma incidence are framed in a rather abstract way, and do not directly relate to empirical findings. To decrease this gap between theory and experimental observations, we incorporate recent data on cellular and molecular factors underlying gliomagenesis. Since evidence implicates the adult neural stem cell as the likely cell-of-origin of glioma, we have incorporated empirically-determined estimates of neural stem cell number, cell division rate, mutation rate and oncogenic potential into our model. We demonstrate that our model yields results which match actual demographic data in the human population. In particular, this model accounts for the observed peak incidence of glioma at approximately 80 years of age, without the need to assert differential susceptibility throughout the population. Overall, our model supports the hypothesis that glioma is caused by randomly-occurring oncogenic mutations within the neural stem cell population. Based on this model, we assess the influence of the (experimentally indicated decrease in the number of neural stem cells and increase of cell division rate during aging. Our model provides multiple testable predictions, and suggests that different temporal sequences of oncogenic mutations can lead to tumorigenesis. Finally, we conclude that four or five oncogenic mutations are sufficient for the formation of glioma.

  7. Incorporating wind availability into land use regression modelling of air quality in mountainous high-density urban environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yuan; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ng, Edward

    2017-08-01

    Urban air quality serves as an important function of the quality of urban life. Land use regression (LUR) modelling of air quality is essential for conducting health impacts assessment but more challenging in mountainous high-density urban scenario due to the complexities of the urban environment. In this study, a total of 21 LUR models are developed for seven kinds of air pollutants (gaseous air pollutants CO, NO 2 , NO x , O 3 , SO 2 and particulate air pollutants PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) with reference to three different time periods (summertime, wintertime and annual average of 5-year long-term hourly monitoring data from local air quality monitoring network) in Hong Kong. Under the mountainous high-density urban scenario, we improved the traditional LUR modelling method by incorporating wind availability information into LUR modelling based on surface geomorphometrical analysis. As a result, 269 independent variables were examined to develop the LUR models by using the "ADDRESS" independent variable selection method and stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR). Cross validation has been performed for each resultant model. The results show that wind-related variables are included in most of the resultant models as statistically significant independent variables. Compared with the traditional method, a maximum increase of 20% was achieved in the prediction performance of annual averaged NO 2 concentration level by incorporating wind-related variables into LUR model development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. The Endogenous Feedback Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Augustenborg, Claudia Carrara

    2010-01-01

    proposals, it will first be considered the extents of their reciprocal compatibility, tentatively shaping an integrated, theoretical profile of consciousness. A new theory, the Endogenous Feedback Network (EFN) will consequently be introduced which, beside being able to accommodate the main tenets...... of the reviewed theories, appears able to compensate for the explanatory gaps they leave behind. The EFN proposes consciousness as the phenomenon emerging from a distinct network of neural paths broadcasting the neural changes associated to any mental process. It additionally argues for the need to include a 5th...

  9. Hume and Endogenous Money

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Pia Paganelli

    2006-01-01

    David Hume’s monetary theory has three standard yet inconsistent readings. As a forefather of the quantity theory of money, Hume sees money as neutral. As an inflationist, Hume sees an active positive role for monetary policy. As a monetarist, Hume sees an active positive role for monetary policy only in the short run. This paper reads Hume consistently instead by showing that for Hume money is endogenous and demand-driven. Hume would read the money equation in terms of reverse causation and ...

  10. Endogenous Receptor Agonists: Resolving Inflammation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerhard Bannenberg

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Controlled resolution or the physiologic resolution of a well-orchestrated inflammatory response at the tissue level is essential to return to homeostasis. A comprehensive understanding of the cellular and molecular events that control the termination of acute inflammation is needed in molecular terms given the widely held view that aberrant inflammation underlies many common diseases. This review focuses on recent advances in the understanding of the role of arachidonic acid and ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA–derived lipid mediators in regulating the resolution of inflammation. Using a functional lipidomic approach employing LC-MS-MS–based informatics, recent studies, reviewed herein, uncovered new families of local-acting chemical mediators actively biosynthesized during the resolution phase from the essential fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA. These new families of local chemical mediators are generated endogenously in exudates collected during the resolution phase, and were coined resolvins and protectins because specific members of these novel chemical families control both the duration and magnitude of inflammation in animal models of complex diseases. Recent advances on the biosynthesis, receptors, and actions of these novel anti-inflammatory and proresolving lipid mediators are reviewed with the aim to bring to attention the important role of specific lipid mediators as endogenous agonists in inflammation resolution.

  11. Endogenous, Imperfectly Competitive Business Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whitta-Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen

    We investigate how imperfect competition affects the occurrence and the properties of endogenous, rational expectations business cycles in an overlapping generations model with constant returns to scale in production. The model has explicit product and labor markets all characterized...... by monopolistic competition. An implicit assumption of barriers to entry justifies that the number of firms is fixed even when positive profits occur. It turns out that both market power of firms on the product markets and market power of unions on the labor markets make the occurrence of cycles more likely....... In particular, imperfect competition on the product markets and the positive profits associated with it may have the effect that there is a cycle even if the labor supply curve is increasing in the real-wage rate. For competitive cycles is required not only a decreasing labor supply curve, but a wage elasticity...

  12. A mechano-regulatory bone-healing model incorporating cell-phenotype specific activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Isaksson, H.E.; Donkelaar, van C.C.; Huiskes, R.; Ito, K.

    2008-01-01

    Phenomenological computational models of tissue regeneration and bone healing have been only partially successful in predicting experimental observations. This may be a result of simplistic modeling of cellular activity. Furthermore, phenomenological models are limited when considering the effects

  13. The endogenous hydrogen sulfide producing enzyme cystathionine-β synthase contributes to visceral hypersensitivity in a rat model of irritable bowel syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Jiande DZ

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The pathogenesis of visceral hypersensitivity, a characteristic pathophysiological feature of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS, remains elusive. Recent studies suggest a role for hydrogen sulfide (H2S in pain signaling but this has not been well studied in visceral models of hyperalgesia. We therefore determined the role for the endogenous H2S producing enzyme cystathionine-β-synthetase (CBS in a validated rat model of IBS-like chronic visceral hyperalgesia (CVH. CVH was induced by colonic injection of 0.5% acetic acid (AA in 10-day-old rats and experiments were performed at 8–10 weeks of age. Dorsal root ganglion (DRG neurons innervating the colon were labeled by injection of DiI (1,1'-dioleyl-3,3,3',3-tetramethylindocarbocyanine methanesulfonate into the colon wall. Results In rat DRG, CBS-immunoreactivity was observed in approximately 85% of predominantly small- and medium-sized neurons. Colon specific DRG neurons revealed by retrograde labeling DiI were all CBS-positive. CBS-positive colon neurons co-expressed TRPV1 or P2X3 receptors. Western blotting analysis showed that CBS expression was significantly increased in colon DRGs 8 weeks after neonatal AA-treatment. Furthermore, the CBS inhibitor hydroxylamine markedly attenuated the abdominal withdrawal reflex scores in response to colorectal distention in rats with CVH. By contrast, the H2S donor NaHS significantly enhanced the frequency of action potentials of colon specific DRG neurons evoked by 2 times rheobase electrical stimulation. Conclusion Our results suggest that upregulation of CBS expression in colonic DRG neurons and H2S signaling may play an important role in developing CVH, thus identifying a specific neurobiological target for the treatment of CVH in functional bowel syndromes.

  14. [Incorporation of an organic MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) and testing of the revised model using independent data sources]. [MAGIC Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T.J.

    1992-09-01

    A project was initiated in March, 1992 to (1) incorporate a rigorous organic acid representation, based on empirical data and geochemical considerations, into the MAGIC model of acidification response, and (2) test the revised model using three sets of independent data. After six months of performance, the project is on schedule and the majority of the tasks outlined for Year 1 have been successfully completed. Major accomplishments to data include development of the organic acid modeling approach, using data from the Adirondack Lakes Survey Corporation (ALSC), and coupling the organic acid model with MAGIC for chemical hindcast comparisons. The incorporation of an organic acid representation into MAGIC can account for much of the discrepancy earlier observed between MAGIC hindcasts and paleolimnological reconstructions of preindustrial pH and alkalinity for 33 statistically-selected Adirondack lakes. Additional work is on-going for model calibration and testing with data from two whole-catchment artificial acidification projects. Results obtained thus far are being prepared as manuscripts for submission to the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

  15. Combining Semi-Endogenous and Fully Endogenous Growth: a Generalization.

    OpenAIRE

    Cozzi, Guido

    2017-01-01

    This paper shows that combining the semi-endogenous and the fully endogenous growth mechanisms with a general CES aggregator, either growth process can prevail in the balanced growth path depending on their degree of complementarity/substitutability. Policy-induced long-run economic switches to the fully endogenous steady state as the R&D employment ratio surpasses a positive threshold are possible if the two growth engines are gross substitutes.

  16. Glucose oxidase incorporated collagen matrices for dermal wound repair in diabetic rat models: a biochemical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arul, V; Masilamoni, J G; Jesudason, E P; Jaji, P J; Inayathullah, M; Dicky John, D G; Vignesh, S; Jayakumar, R

    2012-05-01

    Impaired wound healing in diabetes is a well-documented phenomenon. Emerging data favor the involvement of free radicals in the pathogenesis of diabetic wound healing. We investigated the beneficial role of the sustained release of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in diabetic dermal wound healing. In order to achieve the sustained delivery of ROS in the wound bed, we have incorporated glucose oxidase in the collagen matrix (GOIC), which is applied to the healing diabetic wound. Our in vitro proteolysis studies on incorporated GOIC show increased stability against the proteases in the collagen matrix. In this study, GOIC film and collagen film (CF) are used as dressing material on the wound of streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats. A significant increase in ROS (p < 0.05) was observed in the fibroblast of GOIC group during the inflammation period compared to the CF and control groups. This elevated level up regulated the antioxidant status in the granulation tissue and improved cellular proliferation in the GOIC group. Interestingly, our biochemical parameters nitric oxide, hydroxyproline, uronic acid, protein, and DNA content in the healing wound showed that there is an increase in proliferation of cells in GOIC when compared to the control and CF groups. In addition, evidence from wound contraction and histology reveals faster healing in the GOIC group. Our observations document that GOIC matrices could be effectively used for diabetic wound healing therapy.

  17. Incorporating Psychological Predictors of Treatment Response into Health Economic Simulation Models: A Case Study in Type 1 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, Jen; Pollard, Daniel; Basarir, Hasan; Thokala, Praveen; Cooke, Debbie; Clark, Marie; Bond, Rod; Heller, Simon; Brennan, Alan

    2015-10-01

    . Health economic modeling has paid limited attention to the effects that patients' psychological characteristics have on the effectiveness of treatments. This case study tests 1) the feasibility of incorporating psychological prediction models of treatment response within an economic model of type 1 diabetes, 2) the potential value of providing treatment to a subgroup of patients, and 3) the cost-effectiveness of providing treatment to a subgroup of responders defined using 5 different algorithms. . Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate relationships between patients' psychological characteristics and treatment effectiveness. Two psychological prediction models were integrated with a patient-level simulation model of type 1 diabetes. Expected value of individualized care analysis was undertaken. Five different algorithms were used to provide treatment to a subgroup of predicted responders. A cost-effectiveness analysis compared using the algorithms to providing treatment to all patients. . The psychological prediction models had low predictive power for treatment effectiveness. Expected value of individualized care results suggested that targeting education at responders could be of value. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggested, for all 5 algorithms, that providing structured education to a subgroup of predicted responders would not be cost-effective. . The psychological prediction models tested did not have sufficient predictive power to make targeting treatment cost-effective. The psychological prediction models are simple linear models of psychological behavior. Collection of data on additional covariates could potentially increase statistical power. . By collecting data on psychological variables before an intervention, we can construct predictive models of treatment response to interventions. These predictive models can be incorporated into health economic models to investigate more complex service delivery and reimbursement strategies.

  18. Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conor P. McGowan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

  19. Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Allan, Nathan; Servoss, Jeff; Hedwall, Shaula J.; Wooldridge, Brian

    2017-01-01

    Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises) in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

  20. Endogenous network of firms and systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Qianting; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

    2018-02-01

    We construct an endogenous network characterized by commercial credit relationships connecting the upstream and downstream firms. Simulation results indicate that the endogenous network model displays a scale-free property which exists in real-world firm systems. In terms of the network structure, with the expansion of the scale of network nodes, the systemic risk increases significantly, while the heterogeneities of network nodes have no effect on systemic risk. As for firm micro-behaviors, including the selection range of trading partners, actual output, labor requirement, price of intermediate products and employee salaries, increase of all these parameters will lead to higher systemic risk.

  1. Animal spirits, competitive markets, and endogenous growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyazaki, Kenji

    2013-10-01

    This paper uses a simple model with an endogenous discount rate and linear technology to investigate whether a competitive equilibrium has a higher balanced growth path (BGP) than the social planning solution and whether the BGP is determinate or indeterminate. The implications are as follows. To start with, people with an instinct to compare themselves with others possess an endogenous discount rate. In turn, this instinct affects the economic growth rate in a competitive market economy. The competitive market economy also sometimes achieves higher economic growth than a social planning economy. However, the outcomes of market economy occasionally fluctuate because of the presence of the self-fulfilling prophecy or animal spirits.

  2. Simplex network modeling for press-molded ceramic bodies incorporated with granite waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedroti, L.G.; Vieira, C.M.F.; Alexandre, J.; Monteiro, S.N.; Xavier, G.C.

    2012-01-01

    Extrusion of a clay body is the most commonly applied process in the ceramic industries for manufacturing structural block. Nowadays, the assembly of such blocks through a fitting system that facilitates the final mounting is gaining attention owing to the saving in material and reducing in the cost of the building construction. In this work, the ideal composition of clay bodies incorporated with granite powder waste was investigated for the production of press-molded ceramic blocks. An experimental design was applied to determine the optimum properties and microstructures involving not only the precursors compositions but also the press and temperature conditions. Press load from 15 ton and temperatures from 850 to 1050°C were considered. The results indicated that varying mechanical strength of 2 MPa to 20 MPa and varying water absorption of 19% to 30%. (author)

  3. A new general methodology for incorporating physico-chemical transformations into multi-phase wastewater treatment process models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizarralde, I; Fernández-Arévalo, T; Brouckaert, C; Vanrolleghem, P; Ikumi, D S; Ekama, G A; Ayesa, E; Grau, P

    2015-05-01

    This paper introduces a new general methodology for incorporating physico-chemical and chemical transformations into multi-phase wastewater treatment process models in a systematic and rigorous way under a Plant-Wide modelling (PWM) framework. The methodology presented in this paper requires the selection of the relevant biochemical, chemical and physico-chemical transformations taking place and the definition of the mass transport for the co-existing phases. As an example a mathematical model has been constructed to describe a system for biological COD, nitrogen and phosphorus removal, liquid-gas transfer, precipitation processes, and chemical reactions. The capability of the model has been tested by comparing simulated and experimental results for a nutrient removal system with sludge digestion. Finally, a scenario analysis has been undertaken to show the potential of the obtained mathematical model to study phosphorus recovery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Immigration, Endogenous Technology Adoption and Wages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ray Chaudhuri, A.; Pandey, Manish

    2015-01-01

    We document that immigration to U.S. states has increased the mass of workers at the lower range of the skill distribution. We use this change in skill distribution of workers to analyze the effect of immigration on wages. Our model allows firms to endogenously respond to the immigration-induced

  5. Controlled delivery of fibroblast growth factor-1 and neuregulin-1 from biodegradable microparticles promotes cardiac repair in a rat myocardial infarction model through activation of endogenous regeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formiga, Fabio R; Pelacho, Beatriz; Garbayo, Elisa; Imbuluzqueta, Izaskun; Díaz-Herráez, Paula; Abizanda, Gloria; Gavira, Juan J; Simón-Yarza, Teresa; Albiasu, Edurne; Tamayo, Esther; Prósper, Felipe; Blanco-Prieto, Maria J

    2014-01-10

    Acidic fibroblast growth factor (FGF1) and neuregulin-1 (NRG1) are growth factors involved in cardiac development and regeneration. Microparticles (MPs) mediate cytokine sustained release, and can be utilized to overcome issues related to the limited therapeutic protein stability during systemic administration. We sought to examine whether the administration of microparticles (MPs) containing FGF1 and NRG1 could promote cardiac regeneration in a myocardial infarction (MI) rat model. We investigated the possible underlying mechanisms contributing to the beneficial effects of this therapy, especially those linked to endogenous regeneration. FGF1- and NRG1-loaded MPs were prepared using a multiple emulsion solvent evaporation technique. Seventy-three female Sprague-Dawley rats underwent permanent left anterior descending coronary artery occlusion, and MPs were intramyocardially injected in the peri-infarcted zone four days later. Cardiac function, heart tissue remodeling, revascularization, apoptosis, cardiomyocyte proliferation, and stem cell homing were evaluated one week and three months after treatment. MPs were shown to efficiently encapsulate FGF1 and NRG1, releasing the bioactive proteins in a sustained manner. Three months after treatment, a statistically significant improvement in cardiac function was detected in rats treated with growth factor-loaded MPs (FGF1, NRG1, or FGF1/NRG1). The therapy led to inhibition of cardiac remodeling with smaller infarct size, a lower fibrosis degree and induction of tissue revascularization. Cardiomyocyte proliferation and progenitor cell recruitment were detected. Our data support the therapeutic benefit of NRG1 and FGF1 when combined with protein delivery systems for cardiac regeneration. This approach could be scaled up for use in pre-clinical and clinical studies. © 2013.

  6. Decrease in endogenous brain allopregnanolone induces autism spectrum disorder (ASD)-like behavior in mice: A novel animal model of ASD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebihara, Ken; Fujiwara, Hironori; Awale, Suresh; Dibwe, Dya Fita; Araki, Ryota; Yabe, Takeshi; Matsumoto, Kinzo

    2017-09-15

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder with core symptoms of social impairments and restrictive repetitive behaviors. Recent evidence has implicated a dysfunction in the GABAergic system in the pathophysiology of ASD. We investigated the role of endogenous allopregnanolone (ALLO), a neurosteroidal positive allosteric modulator of GABA A receptors, in the regulation of ASD-like behavior in male mice using SKF105111 (SKF), an inhibitor of type I and type II 5α-reductase, a rate-limiting enzyme of ALLO biosynthesis. SKF impaired sociability-related performance, as analyzed by three different tests; i.e., the 3-chamber test and social interaction in the open field and resident-intruder tests, without affecting olfactory function elucidated by the buried food test. SKF also induced repetitive grooming behavior without affecting anxiety-like behavior. SKF had no effect on short-term spatial working memory or long-term fear memory, but enhanced latent learning ability in male mice. SKF-induced ASD-like behavior in male mice was abolished by the systemic administration of ALLO (1mg/kg, i.p.) and methylphenidate (MPH: 2.5mg/kg, i.p.), a dopamine transporter inhibitor. The effects of SKF on brain ALLO contents in male mice were reversed by ALLO, but not MPH. On the other hand, SKF failed to induce ASD-like behavior or a decline in brain ALLO contents in female mice. These results suggest that ALLO regulates episodes of ASD-like behavior by positively modulating the function of GABA A receptors linked to the dopaminergic system. Moreover, a sex-dependently induced decrease in brain ALLO contents may provide an animal model to study the main features of ASD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Using stochastic models to incorporate spatial and temporal variability [Exercise 14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolyn Hull Sieg; Rudy M. King; Fred Van Dyke

    2003-01-01

    To this point, our analysis of population processes and viability in the western prairie fringed orchid has used only deterministic models. In this exercise, we conduct a similar analysis, using a stochastic model instead. This distinction is of great importance to population biology in general and to conservation biology in particular. In deterministic models,...

  8. A Mass Balance Model for Designing Green Roof Systems that Incorporate a Cistern for Re-Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoj Chopra

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Green roofs, which have been used for several decades in many parts of the world, offer a unique and sustainable approach to stormwater management. Within this paper, evidence is presented on water retention for an irrigated green roof system. The presented green roof design results in a water retention volume on site. A first principle mass balance computer model is introduced to assist with the design of these green roof systems which incorporate a cistern to capture and reuse runoff waters for irrigation of the green roof. The model is used to estimate yearly stormwater retention volume for different cistern storage volumes. Additionally, the Blaney and Criddle equation is evaluated for estimation of monthly evapotranspiration rates for irrigated systems and incorporated into the model. This is done so evapotranspiration rates can be calculated for regions where historical data does not exist, allowing the model to be used anywhere historical weather data are available. This model is developed and discussed within this paper as well as compared to experimental results.

  9. Incorporating Cold Cap Behavior in a Joule-heated Waste Glass Melter Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varija Agarwal; Donna Post Guillen

    2013-08-01

    In this paper, an overview of Joule-heated waste glass melters used in the vitrification of high level waste (HLW) is presented, with a focus on the cold cap region. This region, in which feed-to-glass conversion reactions occur, is critical in determining the melting properties of any given glass melter. An existing 1D computer model of the cold cap, implemented in MATLAB, is described in detail. This model is a standalone model that calculates cold cap properties based on boundary conditions at the top and bottom of the cold cap. Efforts to couple this cold cap model with a 3D STAR-CCM+ model of a Joule-heated melter are then described. The coupling is being implemented in ModelCenter, a software integration tool. The ultimate goal of this model is to guide the specification of melter parameters that optimize glass quality and production rate.

  10. Endogenous Money, Non-neutrality and Interest-sensitivity in the Theory of Long Period Unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Docherty

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the role played by endogenous money in models with interest-sensitive expenditures. In particular, it examines the impact of endogenous money on a baseline neoclassical model arguing against the frequently asserted claim that traditional neoclassical macroeconomics is compatible with endogenous money. It demonstrates firstly that endogenous money is a sufficient condition to render unstable a neoclassical model characterised by interest-sensitive expenditures, full emp...

  11. Endogenous Lunar Volatiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCubbin, F. M.; Liu, Y.; Barnes, J. J.; Boyce, J. W.; Day, J. M. D.; Elardo, S. M.; Hui, H.; Magna, T.; Ni, P.; Tartese, R.; hide

    2017-01-01

    The chapter will begin with an introduction that defines magmatic volatiles (e.g., H, F, Cl, S) versus geochemical volatiles (e.g., K, Rb, Zn). We will discuss our approach of understanding both types of volatiles in lunar samples and lay the ground work for how we will determine the overall volatile budget of the Moon. We will then discuss the importance of endogenous volatiles in shaping the "Newer Views of the Moon", specifically how endogenous volatiles feed forward into processes such as the origin of the Moon, magmatic differentiation, volcanism, and secondary processes during surface and crustal interactions. After the introduction, we will include a re-view/synthesis on the current state of 1) apatite compositions (volatile abundances and isotopic compositions); 2) nominally anhydrous mineral phases (moderately to highly volatile); 3) volatile (moderately to highly volatile) abundances in and isotopic compositions of lunar pyroclastic glass beads; 4) volatile (moderately to highly volatile) abundances in and isotopic compositions of lunar basalts; 5) volatile (moderately to highly volatile) abundances in and isotopic compositions of melt inclusions; and finally 6) experimental constraints on mineral-melt partitioning of moderately to highly volatile elements under lunar conditions. We anticipate that each section will summarize results since 2007 and focus on new results published since the 2015 Am Min review paper on lunar volatiles [9]. The next section will discuss how to use sample abundances of volatiles to understand the source region and potential caveats in estimating source abundances of volatiles. The following section will include our best estimates of volatile abundances and isotopic compositions (where permitted by available data) for each volatile element of interest in a number of important lunar reservoirs, including the crust, mantle, KREEP, and bulk Moon. The final section of the chapter will focus upon future work, outstanding questions

  12. Optimized endogenous post-stratification in forest inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul L. Patterson

    2012-01-01

    An example of endogenous post-stratification is the use of remote sensing data with a sample of ground data to build a logistic regression model to predict the probability that a plot is forested and using the predicted probabilities to form categories for post-stratification. An optimized endogenous post-stratified estimator of the proportion of forest has been...

  13. On the Endogeneity of the Mean-Variance Efficient Frontier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. A.; O'Connell, Paul G. J.

    2002-01-01

    Explains that the endogeneity of the efficient frontier in the mean-variance model of portfolio selection is commonly obscured in portfolio selection literature and in widely used textbooks. Demonstrates endogeneity and discusses the impact of parameter changes on the mean-variance efficient frontier and on the beta coefficients of individual…

  14. Endogenous fertility and development traps with endogenous lifetime

    OpenAIRE

    Fanti, Luciano; Gori, Luca

    2010-01-01

    We extend the literature on endogenous lifetime and economic growth by Chakraborty (2004) and Bunzel and Qiao (2005) to endogenous fertility. We show that development traps due to underinvestments in health cannot appear when fertility is an economic decision variable and the costs of children are represented by a constant fraction of the parents' income used for their upbringing.

  15. Incorporating shape constraints in generalized additive modelling of the height-diameter relationship for Norway spruce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pya

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Measurements of tree heights and diameters are essential in forest assessment and modelling. Tree heights are used for estimating timber volume, site index and other important variables related to forest growth and yield, succession and carbon budget models. However, the diameter at breast height (dbh can be more accurately obtained and at lower cost, than total tree height. Hence, generalized height-diameter (h-d models that predict tree height from dbh, age and other covariates are needed. For a more flexible but biologically plausible estimation of covariate effects we use shape constrained generalized additive models as an extension of existing h-d model approaches. We use causal site parameters such as index of aridity to enhance the generality and causality of the models and to enable predictions under projected changeable climatic conditions. Methods: We develop unconstrained generalized additive models (GAM and shape constrained generalized additive models (SCAM for investigating the possible effects of tree-specific parameters such as tree age, relative diameter at breast height, and site-specific parameters such as index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature during vegetation period, on the h-d relationship of forests in Lower Saxony, Germany. Results: Some of the derived effects, e.g. effects of age, index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature have significantly non-linear pattern. The need for using SCAM results from the fact that some of the model effects show partially implausible patterns especially at the boundaries of data ranges. The derived model predicts monotonically increasing levels of tree height with increasing age and temperature sum and decreasing aridity and social rank of a tree within a stand. The definition of constraints leads only to marginal or minor decline in the model statistics like AIC. An observed structured spatial trend in tree height is modelled via 2-dimensional surface

  16. A selenium-deficient Caco-2 cell model for assessing differential incorporation of chemical or food selenium into glutathione peroxidase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Huawei; Botnen, James H; Johnson, Luann K

    2008-01-01

    Assessing the ability of a selenium (Se) sample to induce cellular glutathione peroxidase (GPx) activity in Se-deficient animals is the most commonly used method to determine Se bioavailability. Our goal is to establish a Se-deficient cell culture model with differential incorporation of Se chemical forms into GPx, which may complement the in vivo studies. In the present study, we developed a Se-deficient Caco-2 cell model with a serum gradual reduction method. It is well recognized that selenomethionine (SeMet) is the major nutritional source of Se; therefore, SeMet, selenite, or methylselenocysteine (SeMSC) was added to cell culture media with different concentrations and treatment time points. We found that selenite and SeMSC induced GPx more rapidly than SeMet. However, SeMet was better retained as it is incorporated into proteins in place of methionine; compared with 8-, 24-, or 48-h treatment, 72-h Se treatment was a more sensitive time point to measure the potential of GPx induction in all tested concentrations. Based on induction of GPx activity, the cellular bioavailability of Se from an extract of selenobroccoli after a simulated gastrointestinal digestion was comparable with that of SeMSC and SeMet. These in vitro data are, for the first time, consistent with previous published data regarding selenite and SeMet bioavailability in animal models and Se chemical speciation studies with broccoli. Thus, Se-deficient Caco-2 cell model with differential incorporation of chemical or food forms of Se into GPx provides a new tool to study the cellular mechanisms of Se bioavailability.

  17. Spatio-temporal Model of Endogenous ROS and Raft-Dependent WNT/Beta-Catenin Signaling Driving Cell Fate Commitment in Human Neural Progenitor Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haack, Fiete; Lemcke, Heiko; Ewald, Roland; Rharass, Tareck; Uhrmacher, Adelinde M.

    2015-01-01

    Canonical WNT/β-catenin signaling is a central pathway in embryonic development, but it is also connected to a number of cancers and developmental disorders. Here we apply a combined in-vitro and in-silico approach to investigate the spatio-temporal regulation of WNT/β-catenin signaling during the early neural differentiation process of human neural progenitors cells (hNPCs), which form a new prospect for replacement therapies in the context of neurodegenerative diseases. Experimental measurements indicate a second signal mechanism, in addition to canonical WNT signaling, being involved in the regulation of nuclear β-catenin levels during the cell fate commitment phase of neural differentiation. We find that the biphasic activation of β-catenin signaling observed experimentally can only be explained through a model that combines Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) and raft dependent WNT/β-catenin signaling. Accordingly after initiation of differentiation endogenous ROS activates DVL in a redox-dependent manner leading to a transient activation of down-stream β-catenin signaling, followed by continuous auto/paracrine WNT signaling, which crucially depends on lipid rafts. Our simulation studies further illustrate the elaborate spatio-temporal regulation of DVL, which, depending on its concentration and localization, may either act as direct inducer of the transient ROS/β-catenin signal or as amplifier during continuous auto-/parcrine WNT/β-catenin signaling. In addition we provide the first stochastic computational model of WNT/β-catenin signaling that combines membrane-related and intracellular processes, including lipid rafts/receptor dynamics as well as WNT- and ROS-dependent β-catenin activation. The model’s predictive ability is demonstrated under a wide range of varying conditions for in-vitro and in-silico reference data sets. Our in-silico approach is realized in a multi-level rule-based language, that facilitates the extension and modification of the

  18. Using a Bayesian approach to estimate and compare new Keynesian DSGE models for the Brazilian economy: the role for endogenous persistence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Antonio C. da Silveira

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE models have been developed for monetary policy analysis in open economies. For this purpose, the basic model must be enriched with the sources of nominal and real rigidities which are capable of explaining the observed output and inflation persistence. Under this perspective, we use the Bayesian approach to estimate and compare alternative model specifications for the Brazilian economy with respect to two endogenous persistence mechanisms widely supported by the international empirical literature: habit formation and price indexation. Using data for the inflation target period, we conclude for the relevance of both mechanisms, although the evidence is unexpectly less robust for price indexation. Furthermore, impulse-response functions are built to describe the dynamic effects of domestic and foreign real and monetary shocks.Modelos de equilíbrio geral dinâmicos e estocásticos têm sido desenvolvidos para a análise de política monetária em economias abertas. Com este propósito, o modelo básico precisa ser enriquecido com as fontes de rigidez nominal e real que são capazes de explicar a persistência observada no produto e na inflação. Com esta perspectiva, a metodologia bayesiana é usada para estimar e comparar alternativas especificações de modelos para a economia brasileira no tocante a dois mecanismos endógenos de persistência amplamente postulados pela literatura empírica internacional: formação de hábito e indexação de preços. Usando dados do período de metas de inflação, nossa conclusão é pela relevância de ambos os mecanismos, embora a evidência seja inesperadamente menos robusta para indexação de preços. Além disso, funções impulsoresposta são construídas para descrever os efeitos dinâmicos de choques estruturais domésticos e externos, reais e monetários.

  19. Integrative modelling of animal movement: incorporating in situ habitat and behavioural information for a migratory marine predator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bestley, Sophie; Jonsen, Ian D; Hindell, Mark A; Guinet, Christophe; Charrassin, Jean-Benoît

    2013-01-07

    A fundamental goal in animal ecology is to quantify how environmental (and other) factors influence individual movement, as this is key to understanding responsiveness of populations to future change. However, quantitative interpretation of individual-based telemetry data is hampered by the complexity of, and error within, these multi-dimensional data. Here, we present an integrative hierarchical Bayesian state-space modelling approach where, for the first time, the mechanistic process model for the movement state of animals directly incorporates both environmental and other behavioural information, and observation and process model parameters are estimated within a single model. When applied to a migratory marine predator, the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina), we find the switch from directed to resident movement state was associated with colder water temperatures, relatively short dive bottom time and rapid descent rates. The approach presented here can have widespread utility for quantifying movement-behaviour (diving or other)-environment relationships across species and systems.

  20. Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Temme

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

  1. Incorporating Protein Biosynthesis into the Saccharomyces cerevisiae Genome-scale Metabolic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olivares Hernandez, Roberto

    Based on stoichiometric biochemical equations that occur into the cell, the genome-scale metabolic models can quantify the metabolic fluxes, which are regarded as the final representation of the physiological state of the cell. For Saccharomyces Cerevisiae the genome scale model has been construc......Based on stoichiometric biochemical equations that occur into the cell, the genome-scale metabolic models can quantify the metabolic fluxes, which are regarded as the final representation of the physiological state of the cell. For Saccharomyces Cerevisiae the genome scale model has been...

  2. Quantitative analysis of CT brain images: a statistical model incorporating partial volume and beam hardening effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLoughlin, R.F.; Ryan, M.V.; Heuston, P.M.; McCoy, C.T.; Masterson, J.B.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to construct and evaluate a statistical model for the quantitative analysis of computed tomographic brain images. Data were derived from standard sections in 34 normal studies. A model representing the intercranial pure tissue and partial volume areas, with allowance for beam hardening, was developed. The average percentage error in estimation of areas, derived from phantom tests using the model, was 28.47%. We conclude that our model is not sufficiently accurate to be of clinical use, even though allowance was made for partial volume and beam hardening effects. (author)

  3. Incorporation of Satellite Data and Uncertainty in a Nationwide Groundwater Recharge Model in New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogier Westerhoff

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A nationwide model of groundwater recharge for New Zealand (NGRM, as described in this paper, demonstrated the benefits of satellite data and global models to improve the spatial definition of recharge and the estimation of recharge uncertainty. NGRM was inspired by the global-scale WaterGAP model but with the key development of rainfall recharge calculation on scales relevant to national- and catchment-scale studies (i.e., a 1 km × 1 km cell size and a monthly timestep in the period 2000–2014 provided by satellite data (i.e., MODIS-derived evapotranspiration, AET and vegetation in combination with national datasets of rainfall, elevation, soil and geology. The resulting nationwide model calculates groundwater recharge estimates, including their uncertainty, consistent across the country, which makes the model unique compared to all other New Zealand estimates targeted towards groundwater recharge. At the national scale, NGRM estimated an average recharge of 2500 m 3 /s, or 298 mm/year, with a model uncertainty of 17%. Those results were similar to the WaterGAP model, but the improved input data resulted in better spatial characteristics of recharge estimates. Multiple uncertainty analyses led to these main conclusions: the NGRM model could give valuable initial estimates in data-sparse areas, since it compared well to most ground-observed lysimeter data and local recharge models; and the nationwide input data of rainfall and geology caused the largest uncertainty in the model equation, which revealed that the satellite data could improve spatial characteristics without significantly increasing the uncertainty. Clearly the increasing volume and availability of large-scale satellite data is creating more opportunities for the application of national-scale models at the catchment, and smaller, scales. This should result in improved utility of these models including provision of initial estimates in data-sparse areas. Topics for future

  4. A mathematical model for maximizing the value of phase 3 drug development portfolios incorporating budget constraints and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Nitin R; Ankolekar, Suresh; Antonijevic, Zoran; Rajicic, Natasa

    2013-05-10

    We describe a value-driven approach to optimizing pharmaceutical portfolios. Our approach incorporates inputs from research and development and commercial functions by simultaneously addressing internal and external factors. This approach differentiates itself from current practices in that it recognizes the impact of study design parameters, sample size in particular, on the portfolio value. We develop an integer programming (IP) model as the basis for Bayesian decision analysis to optimize phase 3 development portfolios using expected net present value as the criterion. We show how this framework can be used to determine optimal sample sizes and trial schedules to maximize the value of a portfolio under budget constraints. We then illustrate the remarkable flexibility of the IP model to answer a variety of 'what-if' questions that reflect situations that arise in practice. We extend the IP model to a stochastic IP model to incorporate uncertainty in the availability of drugs from earlier development phases for phase 3 development in the future. We show how to use stochastic IP to re-optimize the portfolio development strategy over time as new information accumulates and budget changes occur. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Group spike-and-slab lasso generalized linear models for disease prediction and associated genes detection by incorporating pathway information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zaixiang; Shen, Yueping; Li, Yan; Zhang, Xinyan; Wen, Jia; Qian, Chen'ao; Zhuang, Wenzhuo; Shi, Xinghua; Yi, Nengjun

    2018-03-15

    Large-scale molecular data have been increasingly used as an important resource for prognostic prediction of diseases and detection of associated genes. However, standard approaches for omics data analysis ignore the group structure among genes encoded in functional relationships or pathway information. We propose new Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear models, called group spike-and-slab lasso GLMs, for predicting disease outcomes and detecting associated genes by incorporating large-scale molecular data and group structures. The proposed model employs a mixture double-exponential prior for coefficients that induces self-adaptive shrinkage amount on different coefficients. The group information is incorporated into the model by setting group-specific parameters. We have developed a fast and stable deterministic algorithm to fit the proposed hierarchal GLMs, which can perform variable selection within groups. We assess the performance of the proposed method on several simulated scenarios, by varying the overlap among groups, group size, number of non-null groups, and the correlation within group. Compared with existing methods, the proposed method provides not only more accurate estimates of the parameters but also better prediction. We further demonstrate the application of the proposed procedure on three cancer datasets by utilizing pathway structures of genes. Our results show that the proposed method generates powerful models for predicting disease outcomes and detecting associated genes. The methods have been implemented in a freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/). nyi@uab.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  6. Aerofoil broadband and tonal noise modelling using stochastic sound sources and incorporated large scale fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proskurov, S.; Darbyshire, O. R.; Karabasov, S. A.

    2017-12-01

    The present work discusses modifications to the stochastic Fast Random Particle Mesh (FRPM) method featuring both tonal and broadband noise sources. The technique relies on the combination of incorporated vortex-shedding resolved flow available from Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) simulation with the fine-scale turbulence FRPM solution generated via the stochastic velocity fluctuations in the context of vortex sound theory. In contrast to the existing literature, our method encompasses a unified treatment for broadband and tonal acoustic noise sources at the source level, thus, accounting for linear source interference as well as possible non-linear source interaction effects. When sound sources are determined, for the sound propagation, Acoustic Perturbation Equations (APE-4) are solved in the time-domain. Results of the method's application for two aerofoil benchmark cases, with both sharp and blunt trailing edges are presented. In each case, the importance of individual linear and non-linear noise sources was investigated. Several new key features related to the unsteady implementation of the method were tested and brought into the equation. Encouraging results have been obtained for benchmark test cases using the new technique which is believed to be potentially applicable to other airframe noise problems where both tonal and broadband parts are important.

  7. Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Timothy; Yao, Runming

    2013-01-01

    The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures. - Highlights: ► Long term energy models are reviewed with a focus on UK domestic stock models. ► Existing models are found weak in modelling green technology buying behaviour. ► Agent models, Markov chains and neural networks are considered as solutions. ► Agent-based modelling (ABM) is found to be the most promising approach. ► A prototype ABM is developed and testing indicates a lot of potential.

  8. Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P.; Norton, Andrew S.; Storm, Daniel J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.; Heisy, Dennis M.

    2018-01-01

    Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes-of-death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause-specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause-of-death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event-time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause-of-death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause-of-death assignment in modeling of cause-specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause-specific survival data for white-tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection

  9. Incorporating NDVI in a gravity model setting to describe spatio-temporal patterns of Lyme borreliosis incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios, J. M.; Verstraeten, W. W.; Farifteh, J.; Maes, P.; Aerts, J. M.; Coppin, P.

    2012-04-01

    Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common tick-borne disease in Europe and incidence growth has been reported in several European countries during the last decade. LB is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and the main vector of this pathogen in Europe is the tick Ixodes ricinus. LB incidence and spatial spread is greatly dependent on environmental conditions impacting habitat, demography and trophic interactions of ticks and the wide range of organisms ticks parasite. The landscape configuration is also a major determinant of tick habitat conditions and -very important- of the fashion and intensity of human interaction with vegetated areas, i.e. human exposure to the pathogen. Hence, spatial notions as distance and adjacency between urban and vegetated environments are related to human exposure to tick bites and, thus, to risk. This work tested the adequacy of a gravity model setting to model the observed spatio-temporal pattern of LB as a function of location and size of urban and vegetated areas and the seasonal and annual change in the vegetation dynamics as expressed by MODIS NDVI. Opting for this approach implies an analogy with Newton's law of universal gravitation in which the attraction forces between two bodies are directly proportional to the bodies mass and inversely proportional to distance. Similar implementations have proven useful in fields like trade modeling, health care service planning, disease mapping among other. In our implementation, the size of human settlements and vegetated systems and the distance separating these landscape elements are considered the 'bodies'; and the 'attraction' between them is an indicator of exposure to pathogen. A novel element of this implementation is the incorporation of NDVI to account for the seasonal and annual variation in risk. The importance of incorporating this indicator of vegetation activity resides in the fact that alterations of LB incidence pattern observed the last decade have been ascribed

  10. On Rationality of Decision Models Incorporating Emotion-Related Valuing and Hebbian Learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.; Umair, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper an adaptive decision model based on predictive loops through feeling states is analysed from the perspective of rationality. Four different variations of Hebbian learning are considered for different types of connections in the decision model. To assess the extent of rationality, a

  11. Approaches to incorporating climate change effects in state and transition simulation models of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky K. Kerns; Miles A. Hemstrom; David Conklin; Gabriel I. Yospin; Bart Johnson; Dominique Bachelet; Scott Bridgham

    2012-01-01

    Understanding landscape vegetation dynamics often involves the use of scientifically-based modeling tools that are capable of testing alternative management scenarios given complex ecological, management, and social conditions. State-and-transition simulation model (STSM) frameworks and software such as PATH and VDDT are commonly used tools that simulate how landscapes...

  12. Incorporating additional tree and environmental variables in a lodgepole pine stem profile model

    Science.gov (United States)

    John C. Byrne

    1993-01-01

    A new variable-form segmented stem profile model is developed for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees from the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. I improved estimates of stem diameter by predicting two of the model coefficients with linear equations using a measure of tree form, defined as a ratio of dbh and total height. Additional improvements were...

  13. Mathematical Modelling in the Junior Secondary Years: An Approach Incorporating Mathematical Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, James; Carter, Merilyn; Cooper, Tom

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical models are conceptual processes that use mathematics to describe, explain, and/or predict the behaviour of complex systems. This article is written for teachers of mathematics in the junior secondary years (including out-of-field teachers of mathematics) who may be unfamiliar with mathematical modelling, to explain the steps involved…

  14. Incorporating Response Times in Item Response Theory Models of Reading Comprehension Fluency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Shiyang

    2017-01-01

    With the online assessment becoming mainstream and the recording of response times becoming straightforward, the importance of response times as a measure of psychological constructs has been recognized and the literature of modeling times has been growing during the last few decades. Previous studies have tried to formulate models and theories to…

  15. Incorporating Video Modeling into a School-Based Intervention for Students with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kaitlyn P.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Video modeling is an intervention strategy that has been shown to be effective in improving the social and communication skills of students with autism spectrum disorders, or ASDs. The purpose of this tutorial is to outline empirically supported, step-by-step instructions for the use of video modeling by school-based speech-language…

  16. LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

    2011-01-01

    This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

  17. A model for arsenic anti-site incorporation in GaAs grown by hydride vapor phase epitaxy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulte, K. L.; Kuech, T. F. [Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 (United States)

    2014-12-28

    GaAs growth by hydride vapor phase epitaxy (HVPE) has regained interest as a potential route to low cost, high efficiency thin film photovoltaics. In order to attain the highest efficiencies, deep level defect incorporation in these materials must be understood and controlled. The arsenic anti-site defect, As{sub Ga} or EL2, is the predominant deep level defect in HVPE-grown GaAs. In the present study, the relationships between HVPE growth conditions and incorporation of EL2 in GaAs epilayers were determined. Epitaxial n-GaAs layers were grown under a wide range of deposition temperatures (T{sub D}) and gallium chloride partial pressures (P{sub GaCl}), and the EL2 concentration, [EL2], was determined by deep level transient spectroscopy. [EL2] agreed with equilibrium thermodynamic predictions in layers grown under conditions in which the growth rate, R{sub G}, was controlled by conditions near thermodynamic equilibrium. [EL2] fell below equilibrium levels when R{sub G} was controlled by surface kinetic processes, with the disparity increasing as R{sub G} decreased. The surface chemical composition during growth was determined to have a strong influence on EL2 incorporation. Under thermodynamically limited growth conditions, e.g., high T{sub D} and/or low P{sub GaCl}, the surface vacancy concentration was high and the bulk crystal was close to equilibrium with the vapor phase. Under kinetically limited growth conditions, e.g., low T{sub D} and/or high P{sub GaCl}, the surface attained a high GaCl coverage, blocking As adsorption. This competitive adsorption process reduced the growth rate and also limited the amount of arsenic that incorporated as As{sub Ga}. A defect incorporation model which accounted for the surface concentration of arsenic as a function of the growth conditions, was developed. This model was used to identify optimal growth parameters for the growth of thin films for photovoltaics, conditions in which a high growth rate and low [EL2] could be

  18. Glacial cycles:exogenous orbital changes vs. endogenous climate dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Kaufmann, R. K.; Juselius, Katarina

    2010-01-01

    We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr-present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduc...

  19. A LabVIEW model incorporating an open-loop arterial impedance and a closed-loop circulatory system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, R T; Lucas, C L; Cascio, W E; Johnson, T A

    2005-11-01

    While numerous computer models exist for the circulatory system, many are limited in scope, contain unwanted features or incorporate complex components specific to unique experimental situations. Our purpose was to develop a basic, yet multifaceted, computer model of the left heart and systemic circulation in LabVIEW having universal appeal without sacrificing crucial physiologic features. The program we developed employs Windkessel-type impedance models in several open-loop configurations and a closed-loop model coupling a lumped impedance and ventricular pressure source. The open-loop impedance models demonstrate afterload effects on arbitrary aortic pressure/flow inputs. The closed-loop model catalogs the major circulatory waveforms with changes in afterload, preload, and left heart properties. Our model provides an avenue for expanding the use of the ventricular equations through closed-loop coupling that includes a basic coronary circuit. Tested values used for the afterload components and the effects of afterload parameter changes on various waveforms are consistent with published data. We conclude that this model offers the ability to alter several circulatory factors and digitally catalog the most salient features of the pressure/flow waveforms employing a user-friendly platform. These features make the model a useful instructional tool for students as well as a simple experimental tool for cardiovascular research.

  20. A mouse model of familial ALS has increased CNS levels of endogenous ubiquinol9/10 and does not benefit from exogenous administration of ubiquinol10.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacopo Lucchetti

    Full Text Available Oxidative stress and mitochondrial impairment are the main pathogenic mechanisms of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS, a severe neurodegenerative disease still lacking of effective therapy. Recently, the coenzyme-Q (CoQ complex, a key component of mitochondrial function and redox-state modulator, has raised interest for ALS treatment. However, while the oxidized form ubiquinone10 was ineffective in ALS patients and modestly effective in mouse models of ALS, no evidence was reported on the effect of the reduced form ubiquinol10, which has better bioavailability and antioxidant properties. In this study we compared the effects of ubiquinone10 and a new stabilized formulation of ubiquinol10 on the disease course of SOD1(G93A transgenic mice, an experimental model of fALS. Chronic treatments (800 mg/kg/day orally started from the onset of disease until death, to mimic the clinical trials that only include patients with definite ALS symptoms. Although the plasma levels of CoQ10 were significantly increased by both treatments (from <0.20 to 3.0-3.4 µg/mL, no effect was found on the disease progression and survival of SOD1(G93A mice. The levels of CoQ10 in the brain and spinal cord of ubiquinone10- or ubiquinol10-treated mice were only slightly higher (≤10% than the endogenous levels in vehicle-treated mice, indicating poor CNS availability after oral dosing and possibly explaining the lack of pharmacological effects. To further examine this issue, we measured the oxidized and reduced forms of CoQ9/10 in the plasma, brain and spinal cord of symptomatic SOD1(G93A mice, in comparison with age-matched SOD1(WT. Levels of ubiquinol9/10, but not ubiquinone9/10, were significantly higher in the CNS, but not in plasma, of SOD1(G93A mice, suggesting that CoQ redox system might participate in the mechanisms trying to counteract the pathology progression. Therefore, the very low increases of CoQ10 induced by oral treatments in CNS might be not sufficient to

  1. Incorporating Daily Flood Control Objectives Into a Monthly Stochastic Dynamic Programing Model for a Hydroelectric Complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druce, Donald J.

    1990-01-01

    A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model establishes the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

  2. Incorporating daily flood control objectives into a monthly stochastic dynamic programming model for a hydroelectric complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Druce, D.J. (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, Vancouver, British Columbia (Canada))

    1990-01-01

    A monthly stochastic dynamic programing model was recently developed and implemented at British Columbia (B.C.) Hydro to provide decision support for short-term energy exports and, if necessary, for flood control on the Peace River in northern British Columbia. The model established the marginal cost of supplying energy from the B.C. Hydro system, as well as a monthly operating policy for the G.M. Shrum and Peace Canyon hydroelectric plants and the Williston Lake storage reservoir. A simulation model capable of following the operating policy then determines the probability of refilling Williston Lake and possible spill rates and volumes. Reservoir inflows are input to both models in daily and monthly formats. The results indicate that flood control can be accommodated without sacrificing significant export revenue.

  3. Incorporating Pass-Phrase Dependent Background Models for Text-Dependent Speaker verification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarkar, Achintya Kumar; Tan, Zheng-Hua

    2018-01-01

    -dependent. We show that the proposed method significantly reduces the error rates of text-dependent speaker verification for the non-target types: target-wrong and impostor-wrong while it maintains comparable TD-SV performance when impostors speak a correct utterance with respect to the conventional system......In this paper, we propose pass-phrase dependent background models (PBMs) for text-dependent (TD) speaker verification (SV) to integrate the pass-phrase identification process into the conventional TD-SV system, where a PBM is derived from a text-independent background model through adaptation using...... the utterances of a particular pass-phrase. During training, pass-phrase specific target speaker models are derived from the particular PBM using the training data for the respective target model. While testing, the best PBM is first selected for the test utterance in the maximum likelihood (ML) sense...

  4. Incorporation of sedimentological data into a calibrated groundwater flow and transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, N.J.; Young, S.C.; Barton, D.H.; Hurst, B.T.

    1997-01-01

    Analysis suggests that a high hydraulic conductivity (K) zone is associated with a former river channel at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS). A two-dimensional (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) groundwater flow model was developed base on a sedimentological model to demonstrate the performance of a horizontal well for plume capture. The model produced a flow field with magnitudes and directions consistent with flow paths inferred from historical trichloroethylene (TCE) plume data. The most dominant feature affecting the well's performance was preferential high- and low-K zones. Based on results from the calibrated flow and transport model, a passive groundwater collection system was designed and built. Initial flow rates and concentrations measured from a gravity-drained horizontal well agree closely to predicted values

  5. Improving the phenotype predictions of a yeast genome-scale metabolic model by incorporating enzymatic constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanchez, Benjamin J.; Zhang, Xi-Cheng; Nilsson, Avlant

    2017-01-01

    , which act as limitations on metabolic fluxes, are not taken into account. Here, we present GECKO, a method that enhances a GEM to account for enzymes as part of reactions, thereby ensuring that each metabolic flux does not exceed its maximum capacity, equal to the product of the enzyme's abundance...... and turnover number. We applied GECKO to a Saccharomyces cerevisiae GEM and demonstrated that the new model could correctly describe phenotypes that the previous model could not, particularly under high enzymatic pressure conditions, such as yeast growing on different carbon sources in excess, coping...... with stress, or overexpressing a specific pathway. GECKO also allows to directly integrate quantitative proteomics data; by doing so, we significantly reduced flux variability of the model, in over 60% of metabolic reactions. Additionally, the model gives insight into the distribution of enzyme usage between...

  6. Radmap: ''as-built'' cad models incorporating geometrical, radiological and material information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piotrowski, L.; Lubawy, J.L.

    2001-01-01

    EDF intends to achieve successful and cost-effective dismantling of its obsolete nuclear plants. To reach this goal, EDF is currently extending its ''as-built'' 3-D modelling system to also include the location and characteristics of gamma sources in the geometrical models of its nuclear installations. The resulting system (called RADMAP) is a complete CAD chain covering 3-D and gamma data acquisitions, CAD modelling and exploitation of the final model. Its aim is to describe completely the geometrical and radiological state of a particular nuclear environment. This paper presents an overall view of RADMAP. The technical and functional characteristics of each element of the chain are indicated and illustrated using real (EDF) environments/applications. (author)

  7. Incorporation of the time aspect into the liability-threshold model for case-control-family data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cederkvist, Luise; Holst, Klaus K.; Andersen, Klaus K.

    2017-01-01

    to estimates that are difficult to interpret and are potentially biased. We incorporate the time aspect into the liability-threshold model for case-control-family data following the same approach that has been applied in the twin setting. Thus, the data are considered as arising from a competing risks setting...... approach using simulation studies and apply it in the analysis of two Danish register-based case-control-family studies: one on cancer diagnosed in childhood and adolescence, and one on early-onset breast cancer....

  8. On Optimizing H. 264/AVC Rate Control by Improving R-D Model and Incorporating HVS Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Gangyi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The state-of-the-art JVT-G012 rate control algorithm of H.264 is improved from two aspects. First, the quadratic rate-distortion (R-D model is modified based on both empirical observations and theoretical analysis. Second, based on the existing physiological and psychological research findings of human vision, the rate control algorithm is optimized by incorporating the main characteristics of the human visual system (HVS such as contrast sensitivity, multichannel theory, and masking effect. Experiments are conducted, and experimental results show that the improved algorithm can simultaneously enhance the overall subjective visual quality and improve the rate control precision effectively.

  9. A qualitative comparison of fire spread models incorporating wind and slope effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Gregory S. Biging

    1997-01-01

    Wind velocity and slope are two critical variables that affect wildland fire rate of spread. The effects of these variables on rate of spread are often combined in rate-of-spread models using vector addition. The various methods used to combine wind and slope effects have seldom been validated or compared due to differences in the models or to lack of data. In this...

  10. Simulation of a severe convective storm using a numerical model with explicitly incorporated aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lompar, Miloš; Ćurić, Mladjen; Romanic, Djordje

    2017-09-01

    Despite an important role the aerosols play in all stages of cloud lifecycle, their representation in numerical weather prediction models is often rather crude. This paper investigates the effects the explicit versus implicit inclusion of aerosols in a microphysics parameterization scheme in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) - Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model has on cloud dynamics and microphysics. The testbed selected for this study is a severe mesoscale convective system with supercells that struck west and central parts of Serbia in the afternoon of July 21, 2014. Numerical products of two model runs, i.e. one with aerosols explicitly (WRF-AE) included and another with aerosols implicitly (WRF-AI) assumed, are compared against precipitation measurements from surface network of rain gauges, as well as against radar and satellite observations. The WRF-AE model accurately captured the transportation of dust from the north Africa over the Mediterranean and to the Balkan region. On smaller scales, both models displaced the locations of clouds situated above west and central Serbia towards southeast and under-predicted the maximum values of composite radar reflectivity. Similar to satellite images, WRF-AE shows the mesoscale convective system as a merged cluster of cumulonimbus clouds. Both models over-predicted the precipitation amounts; WRF-AE over-predictions are particularly pronounced in the zones of light rain, while WRF-AI gave larger outliers. Unlike WRF-AI, the WRF-AE approach enables the modelling of time evolution and influx of aerosols into the cloud which could be of practical importance in weather forecasting and weather modification. Several likely causes for discrepancies between models and observations are discussed and prospects for further research in this field are outlined.

  11. Debris flow analysis with a one dimensional dynamic run-out model that incorporates entrained material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, Byron Quan; Remaître, Alexandre; van Asch, Theo; Malet, Jean-Philippe; van Westen, Cees

    2010-05-01

    Estimating the magnitude and the intensity of rapid landslides like debris flows is fundamental to evaluate quantitatively the hazard in a specific location. Intensity varies through the travelled course of the flow and can be described by physical features such as deposited volume, velocities, height of the flow, impact forces and pressures. Dynamic run-out models are able to characterize the distribution of the material, its intensity and define the zone where the elements will experience an impact. These models can provide valuable inputs for vulnerability and risk calculations. However, most dynamic run-out models assume a constant volume during the motion of the flow, ignoring the important role of material entrained along its path. Consequently, they neglect that the increase of volume enhances the mobility of the flow and can significantly influence the size of the potential impact area. An appropriate erosion mechanism needs to be established in the analyses of debris flows that will improve the results of dynamic modeling and consequently the quantitative evaluation of risk. The objective is to present and test a simple 1D debris flow model with a material entrainment concept based on limit equilibrium considerations and the generation of excess pore water pressure through undrained loading of the in situ bed material. The debris flow propagation model is based on a one dimensional finite difference solution of a depth-averaged form of the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid motions. The flow is treated as a laminar one phase material, which behavior is controlled by a visco-plastic Coulomb-Bingham rheology. The model parameters are evaluated and the model performance is tested on a debris flow event that occurred in 2003 in the Faucon torrent (Southern French Alps).

  12. Creating a process for incorporating epidemiological modelling into outbreak management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akselrod, Hana; Mercon, Monica; Kirkeby Risoe, Petter; Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey; McGovern, Joanne; Bogucki, Sandy

    2012-01-01

    Modern computational models of infectious diseases greatly enhance our ability to understand new infectious threats and assess the effects of different interventions. The recently-released CDC Framework for Preventing Infectious Diseases calls for increased use of predictive modelling of epidemic emergence for public health preparedness. Currently, the utility of these technologies in preparedness and response to outbreaks is limited by gaps between modelling output and information requirements for incident management. The authors propose an operational structure that will facilitate integration of modelling capabilities into action planning for outbreak management, using the Incident Command System (ICS) and Synchronization Matrix framework. It is designed to be adaptable and scalable for use by state and local planners under the National Response Framework (NRF) and Emergency Support Function #8 (ESF-8). Specific epidemiological modelling requirements are described, and integrated with the core processes for public health emergency decision support. These methods can be used in checklist format to align prospective or real-time modelling output with anticipated decision points, and guide strategic situational assessments at the community level. It is anticipated that formalising these processes will facilitate translation of the CDC's policy guidance from theory to practice during public health emergencies involving infectious outbreaks.

  13. A new mathematical model of gastrointestinal transit incorporating age- and gender-dependent physiological parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stubbs, J.B.

    1992-01-01

    As part of the revision by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) of its report on Reference Man, an extensive review of the literature regarding anatomy and morphology of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract has been completed. Data on age- and gender-dependent GI physiology and motility may be included in the proposed ICRP report. A new mathematical model describing the transit of substances through the GI tract as well as the absorption and secretion of material in the GI tract has been developed. This mathematical description of GI tract kinetics utilizes more physiologically accurate transit processes than the mathematically simple, but nonphysiological, GI tract model that was used in ICRP Report 30. The proposed model uses a combination of zero- and first-order kinetics to describe motility. Some of the physiological parameters that the new model accounts for include sex, age, pathophysiological condition and meal phase (solid versus liquid). A computer algorithm, written in BASIC, based on this new model has been derived and results are compared to those of the ICRP-30 model

  14. Enhanced stability of car-following model upon incorporation of short-term driving memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Da-Wei; Shi, Zhong-Ke; Ai, Wen-Huan

    2017-06-01

    Based on the full velocity difference model, a new car-following model is developed to investigate the effect of short-term driving memory on traffic flow in this paper. Short-term driving memory is introduced as the influence factor of driver's anticipation behavior. The stability condition of the newly developed model is derived and the modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equation is constructed to describe the traffic behavior near the critical point. Via numerical method, evolution of a small perturbation is investigated firstly. The results show that the improvement of this new car-following model over the previous ones lies in the fact that the new model can improve the traffic stability. Starting and breaking processes of vehicles in the signalized intersection are also investigated. The numerical simulations illustrate that the new model can successfully describe the driver's anticipation behavior, and that the efficiency and safety of the vehicles passing through the signalized intersection are improved by considering short-term driving memory.

  15. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

    2013-04-01

    The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique

  16. A durability model incorporating safe life methodology and damage tolerance approach to assess first inspection and maintenance period for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong, J.J.; Shenoi, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper outlines a new durability model to assess the first inspection and maintenance period for structures. Practical scatter factor formulae are presented to determine the safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives from the results of a single full-scale test of a complete structure. New theoretical solutions are proposed to determine the s a -s m -N surfaces of fatigue crack initiation and propagation. Prediction techniques are then developed to establish the relationship equation between safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives with a specific reliability level using a two-stage fatigue damage cumulative rule. A new durability model incorporating safe life and damage tolerance design approaches is derived to assess the first inspection and maintenance period. Finally, the proposed models are applied to assess the first inspection and maintenance period of a fastening structure at the root of helicopter blade.

  17. A durability model incorporating safe life methodology and damage tolerance approach to assess first inspection and maintenance period for structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiong, J.J. [Aircraft Department, Beihang University, Beijing 100083 (China); Shenoi, R.A. [School of Engineering Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: r.a.shenoi@ship.soton.ac.uk

    2009-08-15

    This paper outlines a new durability model to assess the first inspection and maintenance period for structures. Practical scatter factor formulae are presented to determine the safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives from the results of a single full-scale test of a complete structure. New theoretical solutions are proposed to determine the s{sub a}-s{sub m}-N surfaces of fatigue crack initiation and propagation. Prediction techniques are then developed to establish the relationship equation between safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives with a specific reliability level using a two-stage fatigue damage cumulative rule. A new durability model incorporating safe life and damage tolerance design approaches is derived to assess the first inspection and maintenance period. Finally, the proposed models are applied to assess the first inspection and maintenance period of a fastening structure at the root of helicopter blade.

  18. Computer calculation of neutron cross sections with Hauser-Feshbach code STAPRE incorporating the hybrid pre-compound emission model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivascu, M.

    1983-10-01

    Computer codes incorporating advanced nuclear models (optical, statistical and pre-equilibrium decay nuclear reaction models) were used to calculate neutron cross sections needed for fusion reactor technology. The elastic and inelastic scattering (n,2n), (n,p), (n,n'p), (n,d) and (n,γ) cross sections for stable molybdenum isotopes Mosup(92,94,95,96,97,98,100) and incident neutron energy from about 100 keV or a threshold to 20 MeV were calculated using the consistent set of input parameters. The hydrogen production cross section which determined the radiation damage in structural materials of fusion reactors can be simply deduced from the presented results. The more elaborated microscopic models of nuclear level density are required for high accuracy calculations

  19. A model for determination of human foetus irradiation during intrauterine development when the mother incorporates iodine 131

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilev, V.; Doncheva, B.

    1989-01-01

    A model is presented for irradiation calculation of human foetus during weeks 8-15 of the intrauterine development, when the mother chronically incorporates iodine 131. This period is critical for the nervous system of the foetus. Compared to some other author's models, the method proposed eliminates some uncertainties and takes into account the changes in the activity of mother's thyroid in time. The model is built on the base of data from 131 I-kinetics of pregnant women and experimental mice. A formula is proposed for total foetus irradiation calculation including: the internal γ and β irradiation; the external γ and β irradiation from the mother as a whole; and the external γ irradiation from the mother's thyroid

  20. The Isinglass Auroral Sounding Rocket Campaign: data synthesis incorporating remote sensing, in situ observations, and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, K. A.; Clayton, R.; Roberts, T. M.; Hampton, D. L.; Conde, M.; Zettergren, M. D.; Burleigh, M.; Samara, M.; Michell, R.; Grubbs, G. A., II; Lessard, M.; Hysell, D. L.; Varney, R. H.; Reimer, A.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA auroral sounding rocket mission Isinglass was launched from Poker Flat Alaska in winter 2017. This mission consists of two separate multi-payload sounding rockets, over an array of groundbased observations, including radars and filtered cameras. The science goal is to collect two case studies, in two different auroral events, of the gradient scale sizes of auroral disturbances in the ionosphere. Data from the in situ payloads and the groundbased observations will be synthesized and fed into an ionospheric model, and the results will be studied to learn about which scale sizes of ionospheric structuring have significance for magnetosphere-ionosphere auroral coupling. The in situ instrumentation includes thermal ion sensors (at 5 points on the second flight), thermal electron sensors (at 2 points), DC magnetic fields (2 point), DC electric fields (one point, plus the 4 low-resource thermal ion RPA observations of drift on the second flight), and an auroral precipitation sensor (one point). The groundbased array includes filtered auroral imagers, the PFISR and SuperDarn radars, a coherent scatter radar, and a Fabry-Perot interferometer array. The ionospheric model to be used is a 3d electrostatic model including the effects of ionospheric chemistry. One observational and modelling goal for the mission is to move both observations and models of auroral arc systems into the third (along-arc) dimension. Modern assimilative tools combined with multipoint but low-resource observations allow a new view of the auroral ionosphere, that should allow us to learn more about the auroral zone as a coupled system. Conjugate case studies such as the Isinglass rocket flights allow for a test of the models' intepretation by comparing to in situ data. We aim to develop and improve ionospheric models to the point where they can be used to interpret remote sensing data with confidence without the checkpoint of in situ comparison.

  1. Incorporating harvest rates into the sex-age-kill model for white-tailed deer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

    2013-01-01

    Although monitoring population trends is an essential component of game species management, wildlife managers rarely have complete counts of abundance. Often, they rely on population models to monitor population trends. As imperfect representations of real-world populations, models must be rigorously evaluated to be applied appropriately. Previous research has evaluated population models for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus); however, the precision and reliability of these models when tested against empirical measures of variability and bias largely is untested. We were able to statistically evaluate the Pennsylvania sex-age-kill (PASAK) population model using realistic error measured using data from 1,131 radiocollared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. We used these data and harvest data (number killed, age-sex structure, etc.) to estimate precision of abundance estimates, identify the most efficient harvest data collection with respect to precision of parameter estimates, and evaluate PASAK model robustness to violation of assumptions. Median coefficient of variation (CV) estimates by Wildlife Management Unit, 13.2% in the most recent year, were slightly above benchmarks recommended for managing game species populations. Doubling reporting rates by hunters or doubling the number of deer checked by personnel in the field reduced median CVs to recommended levels. The PASAK model was robust to errors in estimates for adult male harvest rates but was sensitive to errors in subadult male harvest rates, especially in populations with lower harvest rates. In particular, an error in subadult (1.5-yr-old) male harvest rates resulted in the opposite error in subadult male, adult female, and juvenile population estimates. Also, evidence of a greater harvest probability for subadult female deer when compared with adult (≥2.5-yr-old) female deer resulted in a 9.5% underestimate of the population using the PASAK model. Because obtaining

  2. Incorporation of lysosomal sequestration in the mechanistic model for prediction of tissue distribution of basic drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assmus, Frauke; Houston, J Brian; Galetin, Aleksandra

    2017-11-15

    The prediction of tissue-to-plasma water partition coefficients (Kpu) from in vitro and in silico data using the tissue-composition based model (Rodgers & Rowland, J Pharm Sci. 2005, 94(6):1237-48.) is well established. However, distribution of basic drugs, in particular into lysosome-rich lung tissue, tends to be under-predicted by this approach. The aim of this study was to develop an extended mechanistic model for the prediction of Kpu which accounts for lysosomal sequestration and the contribution of different cell types in the tissue of interest. The extended model is based on compound-specific physicochemical properties and tissue composition data to describe drug ionization, distribution into tissue water and drug binding to neutral lipids, neutral phospholipids and acidic phospholipids in tissues, including lysosomes. Physiological data on the types of cells contributing to lung, kidney and liver, their lysosomal content and lysosomal pH were collated from the literature. The predictive power of the extended mechanistic model was evaluated using a dataset of 28 basic drugs (pK a ≥7.8, 17 β-blockers, 11 structurally diverse drugs) for which experimentally determined Kpu data in rat tissue have been reported. Accounting for the lysosomal sequestration in the extended mechanistic model improved the accuracy of Kpu predictions in lung compared to the original Rodgers model (56% drugs within 2-fold or 88% within 3-fold of observed values). Reduction in the extent of Kpu under-prediction was also evident in liver and kidney. However, consideration of lysosomal sequestration increased the occurrence of over-predictions, yielding overall comparable model performances for kidney and liver, with 68% and 54% of Kpu values within 2-fold error, respectively. High lysosomal concentration ratios relative to cytosol (>1000-fold) were predicted for the drugs investigated; the extent differed depending on the lysosomal pH and concentration of acidic phospholipids among

  3. A kinematic wave model in Lagrangian coordinates incorporating capacity drop: Application to homogeneous road stretches and discontinuities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Knoop, Victor L.; Hoogendoorn, Serge P.

    2017-01-01

    On freeways, congestion always leads to capacity drop. This means the queue discharge rate is lower than the pre-queue capacity. Our recent research findings indicate that the queue discharge rate increases with the speed in congestion, that is the capacity drop is strongly correlated with the congestion state. Incorporating this varying capacity drop into a kinematic wave model is essential for assessing consequences of control strategies. However, to the best of authors' knowledge, no such a model exists. This paper fills the research gap by presenting a Lagrangian kinematic wave model. "Lagrangian" denotes that the new model is solved in Lagrangian coordinates. The new model can give capacity drops accompanying both of stop-and-go waves (on homogeneous freeway section) and standing queues (at nodes) in a network. The new model can be applied in a network operation. In this Lagrangian kinematic wave model, the queue discharge rate (or the capacity drop) is a function of vehicular speed in traffic jams. Four case studies on links as well as at lane-drop and on-ramp nodes show that the Lagrangian kinematic wave model can give capacity drops well, consistent with empirical observations.

  4. Ultrasonically assisted drilling: A finite-element model incorporating acoustic softening effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phadnis, V A; Roy, A; Silberschmidt, V V

    2013-01-01

    Ultrasonically assisted drilling (UAD) is a novel machining technique suitable for drilling in hard-to-machine quasi-brittle materials such as carbon fibre reinforced polymer composites (CFRP). UAD has been shown to possess several advantages compared to conventional drilling (CD), including reduced thrust forces, diminished burr formation at drill exit and an overall improvement in roundness and surface finish of the drilled hole. Recently, our in-house experiments of UAD in CFRP composites demonstrated remarkable reductions in thrust-force and torque measurements (average force reductions in excess of 80%) when compared to CD with the same machining parameters. In this study, a 3D finite-element model of drilling in CFRP is developed. In order to model acoustic (ultrasonic) softening effects, a phenomenological model, which accounts for ultrasonically induced plastic strain, was implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit. The model also accounts for dynamic frictional effects, which also contribute to the overall improved machining characteristics in UAD. The model is validated with experimental findings, where an excellent correlation between the reduced thrust force and torque magnitude was achieved

  5. High-resolution Continental Scale Land Surface Model incorporating Land-water Management in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

    2016-12-01

    Land surface models have been used to assess water resources sustainability under changing Earth environment and increasing human water needs. Overwhelming observational records indicate that human activities have ubiquitous and pertinent effects on the hydrologic cycle; however, they have been crudely represented in large scale land surface models. In this study, we enhance an integrated continental-scale land hydrology model named Leaf-Hydro-Flood to better represent land-water management. The model is implemented at high resolution (5km grids) over the continental US. Surface water and groundwater are withdrawn based on actual practices. Newly added irrigation, water diversion, and dam operation schemes allow better simulations of stream flows, evapotranspiration, and infiltration. Results of various hydrologic fluxes and stores from two sets of simulation (one with and the other without human activities) are compared over a range of river basin and aquifer scales. The improved simulations of land hydrology have potential to build consistent modeling framework for human-water-climate interactions.

  6. New systematic methodology for incorporating dynamic heat transfer modelling in multi-phase biochemical reactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Arévalo, T; Lizarralde, I; Grau, P; Ayesa, E

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents a new modelling methodology for dynamically predicting the heat produced or consumed in the transformations of any biological reactor using Hess's law. Starting from a complete description of model components stoichiometry and formation enthalpies, the proposed modelling methodology has integrated successfully the simultaneous calculation of both the conventional mass balances and the enthalpy change of reaction in an expandable multi-phase matrix structure, which facilitates a detailed prediction of the main heat fluxes in the biochemical reactors. The methodology has been implemented in a plant-wide modelling methodology in order to facilitate the dynamic description of mass and heat throughout the plant. After validation with literature data, as illustrative examples of the capability of the methodology, two case studies have been described. In the first one, a predenitrification-nitrification dynamic process has been analysed, with the aim of demonstrating the easy integration of the methodology in any system. In the second case study, the simulation of a thermal model for an ATAD has shown the potential of the proposed methodology for analysing the effect of ventilation and influent characterization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Development of a prototype mesoscale computer model incorporating treatment of topography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apsimon, H.; Kitson, K.; Fawcett, M.; Goddard, A.J.H.

    1984-01-01

    Models are available for simulating dispersal of accidental releases, using mass-consistent wind-fields and accounting for site-specific topography. These techniques were examined critically to see if they might be improved, and to assess their limitations. An improved model, windfield adjusted for topography (WAFT), was developed (with advantages over MATHEW used in the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability - ARAC system). To simulate dispersion in the windfields produced by WAFT and calculate time integrated air concentrations and dry and wet deposition the TOMCATS model was developed. It treats the release as an assembly of pseudo-particles using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate turbulent displacements. It allows for larger eddy effects in the horizontal turbulence spectrum. Wet deposition is calculated using inhomogeneous rainfields evolving in time and space. The models were assessed, applying them to hypothetical releases in complex terrain, using typical data applicable in accident conditions, and undertaking sensitivity studies. One finds considerable uncertainty in results produced by these models. Although useful for post-facto analysis, such limitations cast doubt on their advantages, relative to simpler techniques, during an actual emergency

  8. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Yujie [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Yang, Jinyan [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources; Northeast Forestry Univ., Harbin (China). Center for Ecological Research; Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Agronomy; Harden, Jennifer W. [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); McGuire, Anthony D. [Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, U.S. Geological Survey, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Liu, Yaling [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Wang, Gangsheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Inst. and Environmental Sciences Division; Gu, Lianhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division

    2015-11-20

    Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here in this study we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil RH (7.5 ± 2.4 PgCyr-1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4-0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RH with both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = -0.43 to -0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

  9. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Harden, Jennifer W.; McGuire, A. David; Liu, Yaling; Wang, Gangsheng; Gu, Lianhong

    2015-01-01

    Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4–0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RHwith both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = −0.43 to −0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

  10. Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Little is known about the long-term influence of periglacial processes on landscape evolution in cold areas, even though the efficiency of frost cracking on the breakdown of rocks has been documented by observations and experiments. Cold-room laboratory experiments show that a continuous water...... supply and sustained sub- zero temperatures are essential to develop fractures in porous rocks (e.g. Murton, 2006), but the cracking efficiency for harder rock types under natural conditions is less clear. However, based on experimental results for porous rocks, Hales and Roering (2007) proposed a model...... by their model and the elevation of scree deposits in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. This result suggests a link between frost-cracking efficiency and long-term landscape evolution and thus merits further investigations. Anderson et al. (2012) expanded this early model by including the effects of latent heat...

  11. Modeling & Informatics at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated: our philosophy for sustained impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGaughey, Georgia; Patrick Walters, W

    2017-03-01

    Molecular modelers and informaticians have the unique opportunity to integrate cross-functional data using a myriad of tools, methods and visuals to generate information. Using their drug discovery expertise, information is transformed to knowledge that impacts drug discovery. These insights are often times formulated locally and then applied more broadly, which influence the discovery of new medicines. This is particularly true in an organization where the members are exposed to projects throughout an organization, such as in the case of the global Modeling & Informatics group at Vertex Pharmaceuticals. From its inception, Vertex has been a leader in the development and use of computational methods for drug discovery. In this paper, we describe the Modeling & Informatics group at Vertex and the underlying philosophy, which has driven this team to sustain impact on the discovery of first-in-class transformative medicines.

  12. ISG hybrid powertrain: a rule-based driver model incorporating look-ahead information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Shuiwen; Zhang, Junzhi; Chen, Xiaojiang; Zhong, Qing-Chang; Thornton, Roger

    2010-03-01

    According to European regulations, if the amount of regenerative braking is determined by the travel of the brake pedal, more stringent standards must be applied, otherwise it may adversely affect the existing vehicle safety system. The use of engine or vehicle speed to derive regenerative braking is one way to avoid strict design standards, but this introduces discontinuity in powertrain torque when the driver releases the acceleration pedal or applies the brake pedal. This is shown to cause oscillations in the pedal input and powertrain torque when a conventional driver model is adopted. Look-ahead information, together with other predicted vehicle states, are adopted to control the vehicle speed, in particular, during deceleration, and to improve the driver model so that oscillations can be avoided. The improved driver model makes analysis and validation of the control strategy for an integrated starter generator (ISG) hybrid powertrain possible.

  13. The design of a wind tunnel VSTOL fighter model incorporating turbine powered engine simulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, R. O.; Maraz, M. R.; Hiley, P. E.

    1981-01-01

    A wind-tunnel model of a supersonic VSTOL fighter aircraft configuration has been developed for use in the evaluation of airframe-propulsion system aerodynamic interactions. The model may be employed with conventional test techniques, where configuration aerodynamics are measured in a flow-through mode and incremental nozzle-airframe interactions are measured in a jet-effects mode, and with the Compact Multimission Aircraft Propulsion Simulator which is capable of the simultaneous simulation of inlet and exhaust nozzle flow fields so as to allow the evaluation of the extent of inlet and nozzle flow field coupling. The basic configuration of the twin-engine model has a geometrically close-coupled canard and wing, and a moderately short nacelle with nonaxisymmetric vectorable exhaust nozzles near the wing trailing edge, and may be converted to a canardless configuration with an extremely short nacelle. Testing is planned to begin in the summer of 1982.

  14. Incorporating photon recycling into the analytical drift-diffusion model of high efficiency solar cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lumb, Matthew P. [The George Washington University, 2121 I Street NW, Washington, DC 20037 (United States); Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States); Steiner, Myles A.; Geisz, John F. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401 (United States); Walters, Robert J. [Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States)

    2014-11-21

    The analytical drift-diffusion formalism is able to accurately simulate a wide range of solar cell architectures and was recently extended to include those with back surface reflectors. However, as solar cells approach the limits of material quality, photon recycling effects become increasingly important in predicting the behavior of these cells. In particular, the minority carrier diffusion length is significantly affected by the photon recycling, with consequences for the solar cell performance. In this paper, we outline an approach to account for photon recycling in the analytical Hovel model and compare analytical model predictions to GaAs-based experimental devices operating close to the fundamental efficiency limit.

  15. Experimental validation of a Monte Carlo proton therapy nozzle model incorporating magnetically steered protons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, S W; Polf, J; Archambault, L; Beddar, S; Bues, M; Ciangaru, G; Smith, A

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to validate the accuracy of a Monte Carlo calculation model of a proton magnetic beam scanning delivery nozzle developed using the Geant4 toolkit. The Monte Carlo model was used to produce depth dose and lateral profiles, which were compared to data measured in the clinical scanning treatment nozzle at several energies. Comparisons were also made between measured and simulated off-axis profiles to test the accuracy of the model's magnetic steering. Comparison of the 80% distal dose fall-off values for the measured and simulated depth dose profiles agreed to within 1 mm for the beam energies evaluated. Agreement of the full width at half maximum values for the measured and simulated lateral fluence profiles was within 1.3 mm for all energies. The position of measured and simulated spot positions for the magnetically steered beams agreed to within 0.7 mm of each other. Based on these results, we found that the Geant4 Monte Carlo model of the beam scanning nozzle has the ability to accurately predict depth dose profiles, lateral profiles perpendicular to the beam axis and magnetic steering of a proton beam during beam scanning proton therapy.

  16. Incorporating implementation overheads in the analysis for the flexible spin-lock model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balasubramanian, S.M.N.; Afshar, S.; Gai, P.; Behnam, M.; Bril, R.J.

    2017-01-01

    The flexible spin-lock model (FSLM) unifies suspension-based and spin-based resource sharing protocols for partitioned fixed-priority preemptive scheduling based real-time multiprocessor platforms. Recent work has been done in defining the protocol for FSLM and providing a schedulability analysis

  17. Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty in Bayesian Segmentation Models: Application to Hippocampal Subfield Volumetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iglesias, J. E.; Sabuncu, M. R.; Van Leemput, Koen

    2012-01-01

    Many successful segmentation algorithms are based on Bayesian models in which prior anatomical knowledge is combined with the available image information. However, these methods typically have many free parameters that are estimated to obtain point estimates only, whereas a faithful Bayesian anal...

  18. Incorporation of leaf nitrogen observations for biochemical and environmental modeling of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøgh, E.; Gjettermann, Birgitte; Abrahamsen, Per

    2007-01-01

    . While most canopy photosynthesis models assume an exponential vertical profile of leaf N contents in the canopy, the field measurements showed that well-fertilized fields may have a uniform or exponential profile, and senescent canopies have reduced levels of N contents in upper leaves. The sensitivity...

  19. Improved Path Loss Simulation Incorporating Three-Dimensional Terrain Model Using Parallel Coprocessors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Bin Loo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Current network simulators abstract out wireless propagation models due to the high computation requirements for realistic modeling. As such, there is still a large gap between the results obtained from simulators and real world scenario. In this paper, we present a framework for improved path loss simulation built on top of an existing network simulation software, NS-3. Different from the conventional disk model, the proposed simulation also considers the diffraction loss computed using Epstein and Peterson’s model through the use of actual terrain elevation data to give an accurate estimate of path loss between a transmitter and a receiver. The drawback of high computation requirements is relaxed by offloading the computationally intensive components onto an inexpensive off-the-shelf parallel coprocessor, which is a NVIDIA GPU. Experiments are performed using actual terrain elevation data provided from United States Geological Survey. As compared to the conventional CPU architecture, the experimental result shows that a speedup of 20x to 42x is achieved by exploiting the parallel processing of GPU to compute the path loss between two nodes using terrain elevation data. The result shows that the path losses between two nodes are greatly affected by the terrain profile between these two nodes. Besides this, the result also suggests that the common strategy to place the transmitter in the highest position may not always work.

  20. A quantitative model of the cardiac ventricular cell incorporating the transverse-axial tubular system

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pásek, Michal; Christé, G.; Šimurda, J.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 3 (2003), s. 355-368 ISSN 0231-5882 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP204/02/D129 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z2076919 Keywords : cardiac cell * tubular system * quantitative modelling Subject RIV: BO - Biophysics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2003

  1. Development of a prototype mesoscale computer model incorporating treatment of topography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apsimon, H.M.; Goddard, A.J.H.; Kitson, K.; Fawcett, M.

    1985-01-01

    More sophisticated models are now available to simulate dispersal of accidental radioactive releases to the atmosphere; these use mass-consistent windfields and attempt allowance for site-specific topographical features. Our aim has been to examine these techniques critically, develop where possible, and assess limitations and accuracy. The resulting windfield model WAFT uses efficient numerical techniques with improved orographic resolution and treatment of meteorological conditions. Time integrated air concentrations, dry and wet deposition are derived from TOMCATS, which applies Monte-Carlo techniques to an assembly of pseudo-particles representing the release, with specific attention to the role of large eddies and evolving inhomogeneous rainfields. These models have been assessed by application to hypothetical releases in complex terrain using data which would have been available in the event of an accident, and undertaking sensitivity studies. It is concluded that there is considerable uncertainty in results produced by such models; although they may be useful in post-facto analysis, such limitations cast doubt on their advantages relative to simpler techniques, with more modest requirements, during an actual emergency. (author)

  2. Teaching for Art Criticism: Incorporating Feldman's Critical Analysis Learning Model in Students' Studio Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramaniam, Maithreyi; Hanafi, Jaffri; Putih, Abu Talib

    2016-01-01

    This study adopted 30 first year graphic design students' artwork, with critical analysis using Feldman's model of art criticism. Data were analyzed quantitatively; descriptive statistical techniques were employed. The scores were viewed in the form of mean score and frequencies to determine students' performances in their critical ability.…

  3. Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios : Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eker, S.; van Daalen, C.; Thissen, W.A.H.

    2017-01-01

    Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on covering a wide variety of scenarios and searching for robust strategies. However, they generally do

  4. A Probabilistic Model of Visual Working Memory: Incorporating Higher Order Regularities into Working Memory Capacity Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Timothy F.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2013-01-01

    When remembering a real-world scene, people encode both detailed information about specific objects and higher order information like the overall gist of the scene. However, formal models of change detection, like those used to estimate visual working memory capacity, assume observers encode only a simple memory representation that includes no…

  5. Process model for ammonia volatilization from anaerobic swine lagoons incorporating varying wind speeds and biogas bubbling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammonia volatilization from treatment lagoons varies widely with the total ammonia concentration, pH, temperature, suspended solids, atmospheric ammonia concentration above the water surface, and wind speed. Ammonia emissions were estimated with a process-based mechanistic model integrating ammonia ...

  6. Development of a mission-based funding model for undergraduate medical education: incorporation of quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagnaro-Green, Alex; Roe, David; Soto-Greene, Maria; Joffe, Russell

    2008-01-01

    Increasing financial pressures, along with a desire to realign resources with institutional priorities, has resulted in the adoption of mission-based funding (MBF) at many medical schools. The lack of inclusion of quality and the time and expense in developing and implementing mission based funding are major deficiencies in the models reported to date. In academic year 2002-2003 New Jersey Medical School developed a model that included both quantity and quality in the education metric and that was departmentally based. Eighty percent of the undergraduate medical education allocation was based on the quantity of undergraduate medical education taught by the department ($7.35 million), and 20% ($1.89 million) was allocated based on the quality of the education delivered. Quality determinations were made by the educational leadership based on student evaluations and departmental compliance with educational administrative requirements. Evolution of the model has included the development of a faculty oversight committee and the integration of peer evaluation in the determination of educational quality. Six departments had a documented increase in quality over time, and one department had a transient decrease in quality. The MBF model has been well accepted by chairs, educational leaders, and faculty and has been instrumental in enhancing the stature of education at our institution.

  7. D1.4 -- Short Report on Models That Incorporate Non-stationary Time Variant Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lostanlen, Yves; Pedersen, Troels; Steinboeck, Gerhard

    -to-indoor environments are presented. Furthermore, the impact of human activity on the time variation of the radio channel is investigated and first simulation results are presented. Movement models, which include realistic interaction between nodes, are part of current research activities....

  8. Incorporating Solid Modeling and Team-Based Design into Freshman Engineering Graphics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchal, Ralph O.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the integration of these topics through a major team-based design and computer aided design (CAD) modeling project in freshman engineering graphics at the University of Western Ontario. Involves n=250 students working in teams of four to design and document an original Lego toy. Includes 12 references. (Author/YDS)

  9. Incorporating unreliability of transit in transport demand models: theoretical and practical approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Oort, N.; Brands, Ties; de Romph, E.; Aceves Flores, J.

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, transport demand models do not explicitly evaluate the impacts of service reliability of transit. Service reliability of transit systems is adversely experienced by users, as it causes additional travel time and unsecure arrival times. Because of this, travelers are likely to perceive a

  10. Incorporating Lightning Flash Data into the WRF-CMAQ Modeling System: Algorithms and Evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    We describe the use of lightning flash data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to constrain and improve the performance of coupled meteorology-chemistry models. We recently implemented a scheme in which lightning data is used to control the triggering of conve...

  11. Incorporating Logistics in Freight Transport Demand Models: State-of-the-Art and Research Opportunities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ruijgrok, K.; Davydenko, I.

    2012-01-01

    Freight transport demand is a demand derived from all the activities needed to move goods between locations of production to locations of consumption, including trade, logistics and transportation. A good representation of logistics in freight transport demand models allows us to predict the effects

  12. Incorporating prior information into differential network analysis using non-paranormal graphical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Fei; Ou-Yang, Le; Yan, Hong

    2017-08-15

    Understanding how gene regulatory networks change under different cellular states is important for revealing insights into network dynamics. Gaussian graphical models, which assume that the data follow a joint normal distribution, have been used recently to infer differential networks. However, the distributions of the omics data are non-normal in general. Furthermore, although much biological knowledge (or prior information) has been accumulated, most existing methods ignore the valuable prior information. Therefore, new statistical methods are needed to relax the normality assumption and make full use of prior information. We propose a new differential network analysis method to address the above challenges. Instead of using Gaussian graphical models, we employ a non-paranormal graphical model that can relax the normality assumption. We develop a principled model to take into account the following prior information: (i) a differential edge less likely exists between two genes that do not participate together in the same pathway; (ii) changes in the networks are driven by certain regulator genes that are perturbed across different cellular states and (iii) the differential networks estimated from multi-view gene expression data likely share common structures. Simulation studies demonstrate that our method outperforms other graphical model-based algorithms. We apply our method to identify the differential networks between platinum-sensitive and platinum-resistant ovarian tumors, and the differential networks between the proneural and mesenchymal subtypes of glioblastoma. Hub nodes in the estimated differential networks rediscover known cancer-related regulator genes and contain interesting predictions. The source code is at https://github.com/Zhangxf-ccnu/pDNA. szuouyl@gmail.com. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  13. Decision model incorporating utility theory and measurement of social values applied to nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Litchfield, J.W.; Hansen, J.V.; Beck, L.C.

    1975-07-01

    A generalized computer-based decision analysis model was developed and tested. Several alternative concepts for ultimate disposal have already been developed; however, significant research is still required before any of these can be implemented. To make a choice based on technical estimates of the costs, short-term safety, long-term safety, and accident detection and recovery requires estimating the relative importance of each of these factors or attributes. These relative importance estimates primarily involve social values and therefore vary from one individual to the next. The approach used was to sample various public groups to determine the relative importance of each of the factors to the public. These estimates of importance weights were combined in a decision analysis model with estimates, furnished by technical experts, of the degree to which each alternative concept achieves each of the criteria. This model then integrates the two separate and unique sources of information and provides the decision maker with information as to the preferences and concerns of the public as well as the technical areas within each concept which need further research. The model can rank the alternatives using sampled public opinion and techno-economic data. This model provides a decision maker with a structured approach to subdividing complex alternatives into a set of more easily considered attributes, measuring the technical performance of each alternative relative to each attribute, estimating relevant social values, and assimilating quantitative information in a rational manner to estimate total value for each alternative. Because of the explicit nature of this decision analysis, the decision maker can select a specific alternative supported by clear documentation and justification for his assumptions and estimates. (U.S.)

  14. Activation of PLC by an endogenous cytokine (GBP) in Drosophila S3 cells and its application as a model for studying inositol phosphate signalling through ITPK1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yixing; Wu, Shilan; Wang, Huanchen; Hayakawa, Yoichi; Bird, Gary S; Shears, Stephen B

    2012-12-01

    Using immortalized [3H]inositol-labelled S3 cells, we demonstrated in the present study that various elements of the inositol phosphate signalling cascade are recruited by a Drosophila homologue from a cytokine family of so-called GBPs (growth-blocking peptides). HPLC analysis revealed that dGBP (Drosophila GBP) elevated Ins(1,4,5)P3 levels 9-fold. By using fluorescent Ca2+ probes, we determined that dGBP initially mobilized Ca2+ from intracellular pools; the ensuing depletion of intracellular Ca2+ stores by dGBP subsequently activated a Ca2+ entry pathway. The addition of dsRNA (double-stranded RNA) to knock down expression of the Drosophila Ins(1,4,5)P3 receptor almost completely eliminated mobilization of intracellular Ca2+ stores by dGBP. Taken together, the results of the present study describe a classical activation of PLC (phospholipase C) by dGBP. The peptide also promoted increases in the levels of other inositol phosphates with signalling credentials: Ins(1,3,4,5)P4, Ins(1,4,5,6)P4 and Ins(1,3,4,5,6)P5. These results greatly expand the regulatory repertoire of the dGBP family, and also characterize S3 cells as a model for studying the regulation of inositol phosphate metabolism and signalling by endogenous cell-surface receptors. We therefore created a cell-line (S3ITPK1) in which heterologous expression of human ITPK (inositol tetrakisphosphate kinase) was controlled by an inducible metallothionein promoter. We found that dGBP-stimulated S3ITPK1 cells did not synthesize Ins(3,4,5,6)P4, contradicting a hypothesis that the PLC-coupled phosphotransferase activity of ITPK1 [Ins(1,3,4,5,6)P5+Ins(1,3,4)P3→Ins(3,4,5,6)P4+Ins(1,3,4,6)P4] is driven solely by the laws of mass action [Chamberlain, Qian, Stiles, Cho, Jones, Lesley, Grabau, Shears and Spraggon (2007) J. Biol. Chem. 282, 28117-28125]. This conclusion represents a fundamental breach in our understanding of ITPK1 signalling.

  15. Asymmetric Modification of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Genomes by an Endogenous Cytidine Deaminase inside HBV Cores Informs a Model of Reverse Transcription.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Smita; Zlotnick, Adam

    2018-05-15

    Cytidine deaminases inhibit replication of a broad range of DNA viruses by deaminating cytidines on single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) to generate uracil. While several lines of evidence have revealed hepatitis B virus (HBV) genome editing by deamination, it is still unclear which nucleic acid intermediate of HBV is modified. Hepatitis B virus has a relaxed circular double-stranded DNA (rcDNA) genome that is reverse transcribed within virus cores from a RNA template. The HBV genome also persists as covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) in the nucleus of an infected cell. In the present study, we found that in HBV-producing HepAD38 and HepG2.2.15 cell lines, endogenous cytidine deaminases edited 10 to 25% of HBV rcDNA genomes, asymmetrically with almost all mutations on the 5' half of the minus strand. This region corresponds to the last half of the minus strand to be protected by plus-strand synthesis. Within this half of the genome, the number of mutations peaks in the middle. Overexpressed APOBEC3A and APOBEC3G could be packaged in HBV capsids but did not change the amount or distribution of mutations. We found no deamination on pregenomic RNA (pgRNA), indicating that an intact genome is encapsidated and deaminated during or after reverse transcription. The deamination pattern suggests a model of rcDNA synthesis in which pgRNA and then newly synthesized minus-sense single-stranded DNA are protected from deaminase by interaction with the virus capsid; during plus-strand synthesis, when enough dsDNA has been synthesized to displace the remaining minus strand from the capsid surface, the single-stranded DNA becomes deaminase sensitive. IMPORTANCE Host-induced mutation of the HBV genome by APOBEC proteins may be a path to clearing the virus. We examined cytidine-to-thymidine mutations in the genomes of HBV particles grown in the presence or absence of overexpressed APOBEC proteins. We found that genomes were subjected to deamination activity during reverse transcription

  16. Incorporating Ecosystem Processes Controlling Carbon Balance Into Models of Coupled Human-Natural Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, W.; Brown, D. G.; Brunner, A.; Fouladbash, L.; Hadzick, Z.; Hutchins, M.; Kiger, S. E.; Makino, Y.; Nassauer, J. I.; Robinson, D. T.; Riolo, R. L.; Sun, S.

    2012-12-01

    A key element in the study of coupled human-natural systems is the interactions of human populations with vegetation and soils. In human-dominated landscapes, vegetation production and change results from a combination of ecological processes and human decision-making and behavior. Vegetation is often dramatically altered, whether to produce food for humans and livestock, to harvest fiber for construction and other materials, to harvest fuel wood or feedstock for biofuels, or simply for cultural preferences as in the case of residential lawns with sparse trees in the exurban landscape. This alteration of vegetation and its management has a substantial impact on the landscape carbon balance. Models can be used to simulate scenarios in human-natural systems and to examine the integration of processes that determine future trajectories of carbon balance. However, most models of human-natural systems include little integration of the human alteration of vegetation with the ecosystem processes that regulate carbon balance. Here we illustrate a few case studies of pilot-study models that strive for this integration from our research across various types of landscapes. We focus greater detail on a fully developed research model linked to a field study of vegetation and soils in the exurban residential landscape of Southeastern Michigan, USA. The field study characterized vegetation and soil carbon storage in 5 types of ecological zones. Field-observed carbon storage in the vegetation in these zones ranged widely, from 150 g C/m2 in turfgrass zones, to 6,000 g C/m2 in zones defined as turfgrass with sparse woody vegetation, to 16,000 g C/m2 in a zone defined as dense trees and shrubs. Use of these zones facilitated the scaling of carbon pools to the landscape, where the areal mixtures of zone types had a significant impact on landscape C storage. Use of these zones also facilitated the use of the ecosystem process model Biome-BGC to simulate C trajectories and also

  17. Representation and Incorporation of Close Others' Responses: The RICOR Model of Social Influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eliot R; Mackie, Diane M

    2015-08-03

    We propose a new model of social influence, which can occur spontaneously and in the absence of typically assumed motives. We assume that perceivers routinely construct representations of other people's experiences and responses (beliefs, attitudes, emotions, and behaviors), when observing others' responses or simulating the responses of unobserved others. Like representations made accessible by priming, these representations may then influence the process that generates perceivers' own responses, without intention or awareness, especially when there is a strong social connection to the other. We describe evidence for the basic properties and important moderators of this process, which distinguish it from other mechanisms such as informational, normative, or social identity influence. The model offers new perspectives on the role of others' values in producing cultural differences, the persistence and power of stereotypes, the adaptive reasons for being influenced by others' responses, and the impact of others' views about the self. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  18. Incorporating imperfect detection into joint models of communites: A response to Warton et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beissinger, Steven R.; Iknayan, Kelly J.; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Zipkin, Elise; Dorazio, Robert; Royle, Andy; Kery, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Warton et al. [1] advance community ecology by describing a statistical framework that can jointly model abundances (or distributions) across many taxa to quantify how community properties respond to environmental variables. This framework specifies the effects of both measured and unmeasured (latent) variables on the abundance (or occurrence) of each species. Latent variables are random effects that capture the effects of both missing environmental predictors and correlations in parameter values among different species. As presented in Warton et al., however, the joint modeling framework fails to account for the common problem of detection or measurement errors that always accompany field sampling of abundance or occupancy, and are well known to obscure species- and community-level inferences.

  19. Incorporating Floating Surface Objects into a Fully Dispersive Surface Wave Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-19

    Bateman c , Joseph Calantoni c , James T. Kirby b a NRL Code 7320, 1009 Balch Blvd, Stennis Space Center, MS 39529 USA b Center for Applied Coastal...wave prop- agation. J. Waterway Port Coast. Ocean Eng. 119, 618–638 . rzech, M., Shi, F., Calantoni, J., Bateman , S., Veeramony, J., 2014. Small-scale...F., Bateman , S., Calantoni, J., 2016. Modeling small- scale physics of waves and ice in the MIZ. AGU 2016 Ocean Sciences Meeting, Session 9483

  20. Teaching For Art Criticism: Incorporating Feldman’s Critical Analysis Learning Model In Students’ Studio Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Maithreyi Subramaniam; Jaffri Hanafi; Abu Talib Putih

    2016-01-01

    This study adopted 30 first year graphic design students’ artwork, with critical analysis using Feldman’s model of art criticism. Data were analyzed quantitatively; descriptive statistical techniques were employed. The scores were viewed in the form of mean score and frequencies to determine students’ performances in their critical ability. Pearson Correlation Coefficient was used to find out the correlation between students’ studio practice and art critical ability scores. The...

  1. Incorporating social anxiety into a model of college student problematic drinking

    OpenAIRE

    Ham, Lindsay S.; Hope, Debra A.

    2005-01-01

    College problem drinking and social anxiety are significant public health concerns with highly negative consequences. College students are faced with a variety of novel social situations and situations encouraging alcohol consumption. The current study involved developing a path model of college problem drinking, including social anxiety, in 316 college students referred to an alcohol intervention due to a campus alcohol violation. Contrary to hypotheses, social anxiety generally had an inver...

  2. Incorporating driver distraction in car-following models: Applying the TCI to the IDM

    OpenAIRE

    Hoogendoorn, R.G.; van Arem, B.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.

    2013-01-01

    ITS can play a significant role in the improvement of traffic flow, traffic safety and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the implementation of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems may lead to adaptation effects in longitudinal driving behavior following driver distraction. It was however not yet clear how to model these adaptation effects in driving behavior mathematically and on which theoretical framework this should be grounded. To this end in this contribution we introduce a theoretical fr...

  3. Reliability constrained decision model for energy service provider incorporating demand response programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahboubi-Moghaddam, Esmaeil; Nayeripour, Majid; Aghaei, Jamshid

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The operation of Energy Service Providers (ESPs) in electricity markets is modeled. • Demand response as the cost-effective solution is used for energy service provider. • The market price uncertainty is modeled using the robust optimization technique. • The reliability of the distribution network is embedded into the framework. • The simulation results demonstrate the benefits of robust framework for ESPs. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) programs are becoming a critical concept for the efficiency of current electric power industries. Therefore, its various capabilities and barriers have to be investigated. In this paper, an effective decision model is presented for the strategic behavior of energy service providers (ESPs) to demonstrate how to participate in the day-ahead electricity market and how to allocate demand in the smart distribution network. Since market price affects DR and vice versa, a new two-step sequential framework is proposed, in which unit commitment problem (UC) is solved to forecast the expected locational marginal prices (LMPs), and successively DR program is applied to optimize the total cost of providing energy for the distribution network customers. This total cost includes the cost of purchased power from the market and distributed generation (DG) units, incentive cost paid to the customers, and compensation cost of power interruptions. To obtain compensation cost, the reliability evaluation of the distribution network is embedded into the framework using some innovative constraints. Furthermore, to consider the unexpected behaviors of the other market participants, the LMP prices are modeled as the uncertainty parameters using the robust optimization technique, which is more practical compared to the conventional stochastic approach. The simulation results demonstrate the significant benefits of the presented framework for the strategic performance of ESPs.

  4. A Compliant Bistable Mechanism Design Incorporating Elastica Buckling Beam Theory and Pseudo-Rigid-Body Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sönmez, Ümit; Tutum, Cem Celal

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new compliant bistable mechanism design is introduced. The combined use of pseudo-rigid-body model (PRBM) and the Elastica buckling theory is presented for the first time to analyze the new design. This mechanism consists of the large deflecting straight beams, buckling beams...... and the buckling Elastica solution for an original compliant mechanism kinematic analysis. New compliant mechanism designs are presented to highlight where such combined kinematic analysis is required....

  5. Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodegom, P. V.

    2015-12-01

    Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

  6. Power Supply Interruption Costs: Models and Methods Incorporating Time Dependent Patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjoelle, G.H.

    1996-12-01

    This doctoral thesis develops models and methods for estimation of annual interruption costs for delivery points, emphasizing the handling of time dependent patterns and uncertainties in the variables determining the annual costs. It presents an analytical method for calculation of annual expected interruption costs for delivery points in radial systems, based on a radial reliability model, with time dependent variables. And a similar method for meshed systems, based on a list of outage events, assuming that these events are found in advance from load flow and contingency analyses. A Monte Carlo simulation model is given which handles both time variations and stochastic variations in the input variables and is based on the same list of outage events. This general procedure for radial and meshed systems provides expectation values and probability distributions for interruption costs from delivery points. There is also a procedure for handling uncertainties in input variables by a fuzzy description, giving annual interruption costs as a fuzzy membership function. The methods are developed for practical applications in radial and meshed systems, based on available data from failure statistics, load registrations and customer surveys. Traditional reliability indices such as annual interruption time, power- and energy not supplied, are calculated as by-products. The methods are presented as algorithms and/or procedures which are available as prototypes. 97 refs., 114 figs., 62 tabs

  7. Incorporating Neighborhood Choice in a Model of Neighborhood Effects on Income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ham, Maarten; Boschman, Sanne; Vogel, Matt

    2018-05-09

    Studies of neighborhood effects often attempt to identify causal effects of neighborhood characteristics on individual outcomes, such as income, education, employment, and health. However, selection looms large in this line of research, and it has been argued that estimates of neighborhood effects are biased because people nonrandomly select into neighborhoods based on their preferences, income, and the availability of alternative housing. We propose a two-step framework to disentangle selection processes in the relationship between neighborhood deprivation and earnings. We model neighborhood selection using a conditional logit model, from which we derive correction terms. Driven by the recognition that most households prefer certain types of neighborhoods rather than specific areas, we employ a principle components analysis to reduce these terms into eight correction components. We use these to adjust parameter estimates from a model of subsequent neighborhood effects on individual income for the unequal probability that a household chooses to live in a particular type of neighborhood. We apply this technique to administrative data from the Netherlands. After we adjust for the differential sorting of households into certain types of neighborhoods, the effect of neighborhood income on individual income diminishes but remains significant. These results further emphasize that researchers need to be attuned to the role of selection bias when assessing the role of neighborhood effects on individual outcomes. Perhaps more importantly, the persistent effect of neighborhood deprivation on subsequent earnings suggests that neighborhood effects reflect more than the shared characteristics of neighborhood residents: place of residence partially determines economic well-being.

  8. Incorporating institutions and collective action into a sociohydrological model of flood resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, David J.; Sangwan, Nikhil; Sung, Kyungmin; Chen, Xi; Merwade, Venkatesh

    2017-02-01

    Stylized sociohydrological models have mainly used social memory aspects such as community awareness or sensitivity to connect hydrologic change and social response. However, social memory alone does not satisfactorily capture the details of how human behavior is translated into collective action for water resources governance. Nor is it the only social mechanism by which the two-way feedbacks of sociohydrology can be operationalized. This study contributes toward bridging of this gap by developing a sociohydrological model of a flood resilience that includes two additional components: (1) institutions for collective action, and (2) connections to an external economic system. Motivated by the case of community-managed flood protection systems (polders) in coastal Bangladesh, we use the model to understand critical general features that affect long-term resilience of human-flood systems. Our findings suggest that occasional adversity can enhance long-term resilience. Allowing some hydrological variability to enter into the polder can increase its adaptive capacity for resilience through the preservation of social norm for collective action. Further, there are potential trade-offs associated with optimization of flood resistance through structural measures. By reducing sensitivity to floods, the system may become more fragile under the double impact of floods and economic change.

  9. Incorporation of β-glucans in meat emulsions through an optimal mixture modeling systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasquez Mejia, Sandra M; de Francisco, Alicia; Manique Barreto, Pedro L; Damian, César; Zibetti, Andre Wüst; Mahecha, Hector Suárez; Bohrer, Benjamin M

    2018-05-22

    The effects of β-glucans (βG) in beef emulsions with carrageenan and starch were evaluated using an optimal mixture modeling system. The best mathematical models to describe the cooking loss, color, and textural profile analysis (TPA) were selected and optimized. The cubic models were better to describe the cooking loss, color, and TPA parameters, with the exception of springiness. Emulsions with greater levels of βG and starch had less cooking loss (54 and <62), and greater hardness, cohesiveness and springiness values. Subsequently, during the optimization phase, the use of carrageenan was eliminated. The optimized emulsion contained 3.13 ± 0.11% βG, which could cover the intake daily of βG recommendations. However, the hardness of the optimized emulsion was greater (60,224 ± 1025 N) than expected. The optimized emulsion had a homogeneous structure and normal thermal behavior by DSC and allowed for the manufacture of products with high amounts of βG and desired functional attributes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Absorbed dose evaluation based on a computational voxel model incorporating distinct cerebral structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandao, Samia de Freitas; Trindade, Bruno; Campos, Tarcisio P.R. [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)]. E-mail: samiabrandao@gmail.com; bmtrindade@yahoo.com; campos@nuclear.ufmg.br

    2007-07-01

    Brain tumors are quite difficult to treat due to the collateral radiation damages produced on the patients. Despite of the improvements in the therapeutics protocols for this kind of tumor, involving surgery and radiotherapy, the failure rate is still extremely high. This fact occurs because tumors can not often be totally removed by surgery since it may produce some type of deficit in the cerebral functions. Radiotherapy is applied after the surgery, and both are palliative treatments. During radiotherapy the brain does not absorb the radiation dose in homogeneous way, because the various density and chemical composition of tissues involved. With the intention of evaluating better the harmful effects caused by radiotherapy it was developed an elaborated cerebral voxel model to be used in computational simulation of the irradiation protocols of brain tumors. This paper presents some structures function of the central nervous system and a detailed cerebral voxel model, created in the SISCODES program, considering meninges, cortex, gray matter, white matter, corpus callosum, limbic system, ventricles, hypophysis, cerebellum, brain stem and spinal cord. The irradiation protocol simulation was running in the MCNP5 code. The model was irradiated with photons beam whose spectrum simulates a linear accelerator of 6 MV. The dosimetric results were exported to SISCODES, which generated the isodose curves for the protocol. The percentage isodose curves in the brain are present in this paper. (author)

  11. Power Supply Interruption Costs: Models and Methods Incorporating Time Dependent Patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjoelle, G.H.

    1996-12-01

    This doctoral thesis develops models and methods for estimation of annual interruption costs for delivery points, emphasizing the handling of time dependent patterns and uncertainties in the variables determining the annual costs. It presents an analytical method for calculation of annual expected interruption costs for delivery points in radial systems, based on a radial reliability model, with time dependent variables. And a similar method for meshed systems, based on a list of outage events, assuming that these events are found in advance from load flow and contingency analyses. A Monte Carlo simulation model is given which handles both time variations and stochastic variations in the input variables and is based on the same list of outage events. This general procedure for radial and meshed systems provides expectation values and probability distributions for interruption costs from delivery points. There is also a procedure for handling uncertainties in input variables by a fuzzy description, giving annual interruption costs as a fuzzy membership function. The methods are developed for practical applications in radial and meshed systems, based on available data from failure statistics, load registrations and customer surveys. Traditional reliability indices such as annual interruption time, power- and energy not supplied, are calculated as by-products. The methods are presented as algorithms and/or procedures which are available as prototypes. 97 refs., 114 figs., 62 tabs.

  12. Biotransformation model of neutral and weakly polar organic compounds in fish incorporating internal partitioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Dave T F; Di Toro, Dominic M

    2013-08-01

    A model for whole-body in vivo biotransformation of neutral and weakly polar organic chemicals in fish is presented. It considers internal chemical partitioning and uses Abraham solvation parameters as reactivity descriptors. It assumes that only chemicals freely dissolved in the body fluid may bind with enzymes and subsequently undergo biotransformation reactions. Consequently, the whole-body biotransformation rate of a chemical is retarded by the extent of its distribution in different biological compartments. Using a randomly generated training set (n = 64), the biotransformation model is found to be: log (HLφfish ) = 2.2 (±0.3)B - 2.1 (±0.2)V - 0.6 (±0.3) (root mean square error of prediction [RMSE] = 0.71), where HL is the whole-body biotransformation half-life in days, φfish is the freely dissolved fraction in body fluid, and B and V are the chemical's H-bond acceptance capacity and molecular volume. Abraham-type linear free energy equations were also developed for lipid-water (Klipidw ) and protein-water (Kprotw ) partition coefficients needed for the computation of φfish from independent determinations. These were found to be 1) log Klipidw  = 0.77E - 1.10S - 0.47A - 3.52B + 3.37V + 0.84 (in Lwat /kglipid ; n = 248, RMSE = 0.57) and 2) log Kprotw  = 0.74E - 0.37S - 0.13A - 1.37B + 1.06V - 0.88 (in Lwat /kgprot ; n = 69, RMSE = 0.38), where E, S, and A quantify dispersive/polarization, dipolar, and H-bond-donating interactions, respectively. The biotransformation model performs well in the validation of HL (n = 424, RMSE = 0.71). The predicted rate constants do not exceed the transport limit due to circulatory flow. Furthermore, the model adequately captures variation in biotransformation rate between chemicals with varying log octanol-water partitioning coefficient, B, and V and exhibits high degree of independence from the choice of training chemicals. The

  13. Incorporating Water Boiling in the Numerical Modelling of Thermal Remediation by Electrical Resistance Heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, I. L.; Krol, M.; Mumford, K. G.

    2017-12-01

    Developing numerical models for subsurface thermal remediation techniques - such as Electrical Resistive Heating (ERH) - that include multiphase processes such as in-situ water boiling, gas production and recovery has remained a significant challenge. These subsurface gas generation and recovery processes are driven by physical phenomena such as discrete and unstable gas (bubble) flow as well as water-gas phase mass transfer rates during bubble flow. Traditional approaches to multiphase flow modeling soil remain unable to accurately describe these phenomena. However, it has been demonstrated that Macroscopic Invasion Percolation (MIP) can successfully simulate discrete and unstable gas transport1. This has lead to the development of a coupled Electro Thermal-MIP Model2 (ET-MIP) capable of simulating multiple key processes in the thermal remediation and gas recovery process including: electrical heating of soil and groundwater, water flow, geological heterogeneity, heating-induced buoyant flow, water boiling, gas bubble generation and mobilization, contaminant mass transport and removal, and additional mechanisms such as bubble collapse in cooler regions. This study presents the first rigorous validation of a coupled ET-MIP model against two-dimensional water boiling and water/NAPL co-boiling experiments3. Once validated, the model was used to explore the impact of water and co-boiling events and subsequent gas generation and mobilization on ERH's ability to 1) generate, expand and mobilize gas at boiling and NAPL co-boiling temperatures, 2) efficiently strip contaminants from soil during both boiling and co-boiling. In addition, a quantification of the energy losses arising from steam generation during subsurface water boiling was examined with respect to its impact on the efficacy of thermal remediation. While this study specifically targets ERH, the study's focus on examining the fundamental mechanisms driving thermal remediation (e.g., water boiling) renders

  14. Incorporating single-side sparing in models for predicting parotid dose sparing in head and neck IMRT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Lulin; Wu, Q. Jackie; Yin, Fang-Fang; Yoo, David; Jiang, Yuliang; Ge, Yaorong

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Sparing of single-side parotid gland is a common practice in head-and-neck (HN) intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) planning. It is a special case of dose sparing tradeoff between different organs-at-risk. The authors describe an improved mathematical model for predicting achievable dose sparing in parotid glands in HN IMRT planning that incorporates single-side sparing considerations based on patient anatomy and learning from prior plan data. Methods: Among 68 HN cases analyzed retrospectively, 35 cases had physician prescribed single-side parotid sparing preferences. The single-side sparing model was trained with cases which had single-side sparing preferences, while the standard model was trained with the remainder of cases. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was performed to determine the best criterion that separates the two case groups using the physician's single-side sparing prescription as ground truth. The final predictive model (combined model) takes into account the single-side sparing by switching between the standard and single-side sparing models according to the single-side sparing criterion. The models were tested with 20 additional cases. The significance of the improvement of prediction accuracy by the combined model over the standard model was evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Results: Using the ROC analysis, the best single-side sparing criterion is (1) the predicted median dose of one parotid is higher than 24 Gy; and (2) that of the other is higher than 7 Gy. This criterion gives a true positive rate of 0.82 and a false positive rate of 0.19, respectively. For the bilateral sparing cases, the combined and the standard models performed equally well, with the median of the prediction errors for parotid median dose being 0.34 Gy by both models (p = 0.81). For the single-side sparing cases, the standard model overestimates the median dose by 7.8 Gy on average, while the predictions by the combined

  15. Stochastic Stability of Endogenous Growth: Theory and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Boucekkine, Raouf; Pintus, Patrick; Zou, Benteng

    2015-01-01

    We examine the issue of stability of stochastic endogenous growth. First, stochastic stability concepts are introduced and applied to stochastic linear homogenous differen- tial equations to which several stochastic endogenous growth models reduce. Second, we apply the mathematical theory to two models, starting with the stochastic AK model. It’s shown that in this case exponential balanced paths, which characterize optimal trajectories in the absence of uncertainty, are not robust to uncerta...

  16. A Refined Model for the Structure of Acireductone Dioxygenase from Klebsiella ATCC 8724 Incorporating Residual Dipolar Couplings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pochapsky, Thomas C., E-mail: pochapsk@brandeis.edu; Pochapsky, Susan S.; Ju Tingting [Brandeis University, Department of Chemistry (United States); Hoefler, Chris [Brandeis University, Department of Biochemistry (United States); Liang Jue [Brandeis University, Department of Chemistry (United States)

    2006-02-15

    Acireductone dioxygenase (ARD) from Klebsiella ATCC 8724 is a metalloenzyme that is capable of catalyzing different reactions with the same substrates (acireductone and O{sub 2}) depending upon the metal bound in the active site. A model for the solution structure of the paramagnetic Ni{sup 2+}-containing ARD has been refined using residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) measured in two media. Additional dihedral restraints based on chemical shift (TALOS) were included in the refinement, and backbone structure in the vicinity of the active site was modeled from a crystallographic structure of the mouse homolog of ARD. The incorporation of residual dipolar couplings into the structural refinement alters the relative orientations of several structural features significantly, and improves local secondary structure determination. Comparisons between the solution structures obtained with and without RDCs are made, and structural similarities and differences between mouse and bacterial enzymes are described. Finally, the biological significance of these differences is considered.

  17. Incorporation of a high-roughness lower boundary into a mesoscale model for studies of dry deposition over complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Physick, W. L.; Garratt, J. R.

    1995-04-01

    For flow over natural surfaces, there exists a roughness sublayer within the atmospheric surface layer near the boundary. In this sublayer (typically 50 z 0 deep in unstable conditions), the Monin-Obukhov (M-O) flux profile relations for homogeneous surfaces cannot be applied. We have incorporated a modified form of the M-O stability functions (Garratt, 1978, 1980, 1983) in a mesoscale model to take account of this roughness sublayer and examined the diurnal variation of the boundary-layer wind and temperature profiles with and without these modifications. We have also investigated the effect of the modified M-O functions on the aerodynamic and laminar-sublayer resistances associated with the transfer of trace gases to vegetation. Our results show that when an observation height or the lowest level in a model is within the roughness sublayer, neglect of the flux-profile modifications leads to an underestimate of resistances by 7% at the most.

  18. Incorporating the user perspective into a proposed model for assessing success of SHS implementations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Holtorf

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Modern energy can contribute to development in multiple ways while approximately 20% of world's populations do not yet have access to electricity. Solar Home Systems (SHSs consists of a PV module, a charge controller and a battery supply in the range of 100 Wh/d in Sunbelt countries. The question addressed in this paper is how SHS users approach success of their systems and how these user's views can be integrated in to an existing model of success. Information was obtained on the user's approach to their SHSs by participatory observation, interviews with users and by self-observation undertaken by the lead author while residing under SHS electricity supply conditions. It was found that success of SHSs from the users' point of view is related to the ability of these systems to reduce the burdens of supplying energy services to homesteads. SHSs can alleviate some energy supply burdens, and they can improve living conditions by enabling communication on multiple levels and by addressing convenience and safety concerns. However, SHSs do not contribute to the energy services which are indispensable for survival, nor to the thermal energy services required and desired in dwellings of Sunbelt countries. The elements of three of the four components of our previously proposed model of success have been verified and found to be appropriate, namely the user's self-set goals, their importance and SHSs' success factors. The locally appropriate, and scientifically satisfactory, measurement of the level of achievement of self-set goals, the fourth component of our model of success, remains an interesting area for future research.

  19. The Eatwell Guide: Modelling the Health Implications of Incorporating New Sugar and Fibre Guidelines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J Cobiac

    Full Text Available To model population health impacts of dietary changes associated with the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (the 'Eatwell Guide'.Using multi-state lifetable methods, we modelled the impact of dietary changes on cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers over the lifetime of the current UK population. From this model, we determined change in life expectancy and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs that could be averted.Changing the average diet to that recommended in the new Eatwell Guide, without increasing total energy intake, could increase average life expectancy by 5.4 months (95% uncertainty interval: 4.7 to 6.2 for men and 4.0 months (3.4 to 4.6 for women; and avert 17.9 million (17.6 to 18.2 DALYs over the lifetime of the current population. A large proportion of the health benefits are from prevention of type 2 diabetes, with 440,000 (400,000 to 480,000 new cases prevented in men and 340,000 (310,000 to 370,000 new cases prevented in women, over the next ten years. Prevention of cardiovascular diseases and colorectal cancer is also large. However, if the diet recommended in the new Eatwell Guide is achieved with an accompanying increase in energy intake (and thus an increase in body mass index, around half the potential improvements in population health will not be realised.The dietary changes required to meet recommendations in the Eatwell Guide, which include eating more fruits and vegetables and less red and processed meats and dairy products, are large. However, the potential population health benefits are substantial.

  20. A porcine model of bladder outlet obstruction incorporating radio-telemetered cystometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Matthew B; Herndon, Claude D; Cain, Mark P; Rink, Richard C; Kaefer, Martin

    2007-07-01

    To present a novel porcine model of bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) with a standardized bladder outlet resistance and real-time ambulatory radio-telemetered cystometry, as BOO is a common condition with many causes in both adults and children, with significant morbidity and occasional mortality, but attempts to model this condition in many animal models have the fundamental problem of standardising the degree of outlet resistance. BOO was created in nine castrated male pigs by dividing the mid-urethra; outflow was allowed through an implanted bladder drainage catheter containing a resistance valve, allowing urine to flow across the valve only when a set pressure differential was generated across the valve. An implantable radio-telemetered pressure sensor monitored the pressure within the bladder and abdominal cavity, and relayed this information to a remote computer. Four control pigs had an occluded bladder drainage catheter and pressure sensor placed, but were allowed to void normally through the native urethra. Intra-vesical pressure was monitored by telemetry, while the resistance valve was increased weekly, beginning with 2 cmH2O and ultimately reaching 10 cmH2O. The pigs were assessed using conventional cystometry under anaesthesia before death, and samples conserved in formalin for haematoxylin and eosin staining. The pigs had radio-telemetered cystometry for a median of 26 days. All telemetry implants functioned well for the duration of the experiment, but one pig developed a urethral fistula and was excluded from the study. With BOO the bladder mass index (bladder mass/body mass x 10 000) increased from 9.7 to 20 (P = 0.004), with a significant degree of hypertrophy of the detrusor smooth muscle bundles. Obstructed bladders were significantly less compliant than control bladders (8.3 vs 22.1 mL/cmH2O, P = 0.03). Telemetric cystometry showed that there was no statistically significance difference in mean bladder pressure between obstructed and control pigs

  1. Procurement-distribution model for perishable items with quantity discounts incorporating freight policies under fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Makkar Sandhya

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A significant issue of the supply chain problem is how to integrate different entities. Managing supply chain is a difficult task because of complex integrations, especially when the products are perishable in nature. Little attention has been paid on ordering specific perishable products jointly in uncertain environment with multiple sources and multiple destinations. In this article, we propose a supply chain coordination model through quantity and freight discount policy for perishable products under uncertain cost and demand information. A case is provided to validate the procedure.

  2. Dipole estimation errors due to not incorporating anisotropic conductivities in realistic head models for EEG source analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallez, Hans; Staelens, Steven; Lemahieu, Ignace

    2009-10-01

    EEG source analysis is a valuable tool for brain functionality research and for diagnosing neurological disorders, such as epilepsy. It requires a geometrical representation of the human head or a head model, which is often modeled as an isotropic conductor. However, it is known that some brain tissues, such as the skull or white matter, have an anisotropic conductivity. Many studies reported that the anisotropic conductivities have an influence on the calculated electrode potentials. However, few studies have assessed the influence of anisotropic conductivities on the dipole estimations. In this study, we want to determine the dipole estimation errors due to not taking into account the anisotropic conductivities of the skull and/or brain tissues. Therefore, head models are constructed with the same geometry, but with an anisotropically conducting skull and/or brain tissue compartment. These head models are used in simulation studies where the dipole location and orientation error is calculated due to neglecting anisotropic conductivities of the skull and brain tissue. Results show that not taking into account the anisotropic conductivities of the skull yields a dipole location error between 2 and 25 mm, with an average of 10 mm. When the anisotropic conductivities of the brain tissues are neglected, the dipole location error ranges between 0 and 5 mm. In this case, the average dipole location error was 2.3 mm. In all simulations, the dipole orientation error was smaller than 10°. We can conclude that the anisotropic conductivities of the skull have to be incorporated to improve the accuracy of EEG source analysis. The results of the simulation, as presented here, also suggest that incorporation of the anisotropic conductivities of brain tissues is not necessary. However, more studies are needed to confirm these suggestions.

  3. Dipole estimation errors due to not incorporating anisotropic conductivities in realistic head models for EEG source analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallez, Hans; Staelens, Steven; Lemahieu, Ignace

    2009-01-01

    EEG source analysis is a valuable tool for brain functionality research and for diagnosing neurological disorders, such as epilepsy. It requires a geometrical representation of the human head or a head model, which is often modeled as an isotropic conductor. However, it is known that some brain tissues, such as the skull or white matter, have an anisotropic conductivity. Many studies reported that the anisotropic conductivities have an influence on the calculated electrode potentials. However, few studies have assessed the influence of anisotropic conductivities on the dipole estimations. In this study, we want to determine the dipole estimation errors due to not taking into account the anisotropic conductivities of the skull and/or brain tissues. Therefore, head models are constructed with the same geometry, but with an anisotropically conducting skull and/or brain tissue compartment. These head models are used in simulation studies where the dipole location and orientation error is calculated due to neglecting anisotropic conductivities of the skull and brain tissue. Results show that not taking into account the anisotropic conductivities of the skull yields a dipole location error between 2 and 25 mm, with an average of 10 mm. When the anisotropic conductivities of the brain tissues are neglected, the dipole location error ranges between 0 and 5 mm. In this case, the average dipole location error was 2.3 mm. In all simulations, the dipole orientation error was smaller than 10 deg. We can conclude that the anisotropic conductivities of the skull have to be incorporated to improve the accuracy of EEG source analysis. The results of the simulation, as presented here, also suggest that incorporation of the anisotropic conductivities of brain tissues is not necessary. However, more studies are needed to confirm these suggestions.

  4. Incorporation prior belief in the general path model: A comparison of information sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coble, Jamie; Hines, Wesley

    2014-01-01

    The general path model (GPM) is one approach for performing degradation-based, or Type III, prognostics. The GPM fits a parametric function to the collected observations of a prognostic parameter and extrapolates the fit to a failure threshold. This approach has been successfully applied to a variety of systems when a sufficient number of prognostic parameter observations are available. However, the parametric fit can suffer significantly when few data are available or the data are very noisy. In these instances, it is beneficial to include additional information to influence the fit to conform to a prior belief about the evolution of system degradation. Bayesian statistical approaches have been proposed to include prior information in the form of distributions of expected model parameters. This requires a number of run-to-failure cases with tracked prognostic parameters; these data may not be readily available for many systems. Reliability information and stressor-based (Type I and Type II, respectively) prognostic estimates can provide the necessary prior belief for the GPM. This article presents the Bayesian updating framework to include prior information in the GPM and compares the efficacy of including different information sources on two data sets.

  5. Study of an intraurban travel demand model incorporating commuter preference variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holligan, P. E.; Coote, M. A.; Rushmer, C. R.; Fanning, M. L.

    1971-01-01

    The model is based on the substantial travel data base for the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, provided by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. The model is of the abstract type, and makes use of commuter attitudes towards modes and simple demographic characteristics of zones in a region to predict interzonal travel by mode for the region. A characterization of the STOL/VTOL mode was extrapolated by means of a subjective comparison of its expected characteristics with those of modes characterized by the survey. Predictions of STOL demand were made for the Bay Area and an aircraft network was developed to serve this demand. When this aircraft system is compared to the base case system, the demand for STOL service has increased five fold and the resulting economics show considerable benefit from the increased scale of operations. In the previous study all systems required subsidy in varying amounts. The new system shows a substantial profit at an average fare of $3.55 per trip.

  6. An expanded Notch-Delta model exhibiting long-range patterning and incorporating MicroRNA regulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry S Chen

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Notch-Delta signaling is a fundamental cell-cell communication mechanism that governs the differentiation of many cell types. Most existing mathematical models of Notch-Delta signaling are based on a feedback loop between Notch and Delta leading to lateral inhibition of neighboring cells. These models result in a checkerboard spatial pattern whereby adjacent cells express opposing levels of Notch and Delta, leading to alternate cell fates. However, a growing body of biological evidence suggests that Notch-Delta signaling produces other patterns that are not checkerboard, and therefore a new model is needed. Here, we present an expanded Notch-Delta model that builds upon previous models, adding a local Notch activity gradient, which affects long-range patterning, and the activity of a regulatory microRNA. This model is motivated by our experiments in the ascidian Ciona intestinalis showing that the peripheral sensory neurons, whose specification is in part regulated by the coordinate activity of Notch-Delta signaling and the microRNA miR-124, exhibit a sparse spatial pattern whereby consecutive neurons may be spaced over a dozen cells apart. We perform rigorous stability and bifurcation analyses, and demonstrate that our model is able to accurately explain and reproduce the neuronal pattern in Ciona. Using Monte Carlo simulations of our model along with miR-124 transgene over-expression assays, we demonstrate that the activity of miR-124 can be incorporated into the Notch decay rate parameter of our model. Finally, we motivate the general applicability of our model to Notch-Delta signaling in other animals by providing evidence that microRNAs regulate Notch-Delta signaling in analogous cell types in other organisms, and by discussing evidence in other organisms of sparse spatial patterns in tissues where Notch-Delta signaling is active.

  7. Endogenous retroviruses mobilized during friend murine leukemia virus infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boi, Stefano; Rosenke, Kyle; Hansen, Ethan; Hendrick, Duncan; Malik, Frank; Evans, Leonard H

    2016-12-01

    We have demonstrated in a mouse model that infection with a retrovirus can lead not only to the generation of recombinants between exogenous and endogenous gammaretrovirus, but also to the mobilization of endogenous proviruses by pseudotyping entire polytropic proviral transcripts and facilitating their infectious spread to new cells. However, the frequency of this occurrence, the kinetics, and the identity of mobilized endogenous proviruses was unclear. Here we find that these mobilized transcripts are detected after only one day of infection. They predominate over recombinant polytropic viruses early in infection, persist throughout the course of disease and are comprised of multiple different polytropic proviruses. Other endogenous retroviral elements such as intracisternal A particles (IAPs) were not detected. The integration of the endogenous transcripts into new cells could result in loss of transcriptional control and elevated expression which may facilitate pathogenesis, perhaps by contributing to the generation of polytropic recombinant viruses. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. The effect of intra-abdominal hypertension incorporating severe acute pancreatitis in a porcine model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Ke

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS and intra abdominal hypertension(IAH are common clinical findings in patients with severe acute pancreatitis(SAP. It is thought that an increased intra abdominal pressure(IAP is associated with poor prognosis in SAP patients. But the detailed effect of IAH/ACS on different organ system is not clear. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of SAP combined with IAH on hemodynamics, systemic oxygenation, and organ damage in a 12 h lasting porcine model. MEASUREMENTS AND METHODS: Following baseline registrations, a total of 30 animals were divided into 5 groups (6 animals in each group: SAP+IAP30 group, SAP+IAP20 group, SAP group, IAP30 group(sham-operated but without SAP and sham-operated group. We used a N(2 pneumoperitoneum to induce different levels of IAH and retrograde intra-ductal infusion of sodium taurocholate to induce SAP. The investigation period was 12 h. Hemodynamic parameters (CO, HR, MAP, CVP, urine output, oxygenation parameters(e.g., S(vO(2, PO(2, PaCO(2, peak inspiratory pressure, as well as serum parameters (e.g., ALT, amylase, lactate, creatinine were recorded. Histological examination of liver, intestine, pancreas, and lung was performed. MAIN RESULTS: Cardiac output significantly decreased in the SAP+IAH animals compared with other groups. Furthermore, AST, creatinine, SUN and lactate showed similar increasing tendency paralleled with profoundly decrease in S(vO(2. The histopathological analyses also revealed higher grade injury of liver, intestine, pancreas and lung in the SAP+IAH groups. However, few differences were found between the two SAP+IAH groups with different levels of IAP. CONCLUSIONS: Our newly developed porcine SAP+IAH model demonstrated that there were remarkable effects on global hemodynamics, oxygenation and organ function in response to sustained IAH of 12 h combined with SAP. Moreover, our model should be helpful to study the mechanisms of IAH

  9. Teaching For Art Criticism: Incorporating Feldman’s Critical Analysis Learning Model In Students’ Studio Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maithreyi Subramaniam

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study adopted 30 first year graphic design students’ artwork, with critical analysis using Feldman’s model of art criticism. Data were analyzed quantitatively; descriptive statistical techniques were employed. The scores were viewed in the form of mean score and frequencies to determine students’ performances in their critical ability. Pearson Correlation Coefficient was used to find out the correlation between students’ studio practice and art critical ability scores. The findings showed most students performed slightly better than average in the critical analyses and performed best in selecting analysis among the four dimensions assessed. In the context of the students’ studio practice and critical ability, findings showed there are some connections between the students’ art critical ability and studio practice.

  10. Etoposide Incorporated into Camel Milk Phospholipids Liposomes Shows Increased Activity against Fibrosarcoma in a Mouse Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamzah M. Maswadeh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Phospholipids were isolated from camel milk and identified by using high performance liquid chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS. Anticancer drug etoposide (ETP was entrapped in liposomes, prepared from camel milk phospholipids, to determine its activity against fibrosarcoma in a murine model. Fibrosarcoma was induced in mice by injecting benzopyrene (BAP and tumor-bearing mice were treated with various formulations of etoposide, including etoposide entrapped camel milk phospholipids liposomes (ETP-Cam-liposomes and etoposide-loaded DPPC-liposomes (ETP-DPPC-liposomes. The tumor-bearing mice treated with ETP-Cam-liposomes showed slow progression of tumors and increased survival compared to free ETP or ETP-DPPC-liposomes. These results suggest that ETP-Cam-liposomes may prove to be a better drug delivery system for anticancer drugs.

  11. Atomistic modelling study of lanthanide incorporation in the crystal lattice of an apatite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Louis-Achille, V.

    1999-01-01

    Studies of natural and synthetic apatites allow to propose such crystals as matrix for nuclear waste storage. The neodymium substituted britholite, Ca 9 Nd(PO 4 ) 5 (SiO 4 )F 2 . is a model for the trivalent actinide storage Neodymium can be substituted in two types of sites. The aim of this thesis is to compare the chemical nature of this two sites in fluoro-apatite Ca 9 (PO 4 ) 6 F 2 and then in britholite, using ab initio atomistic modeling. Two approaches are used: one considers the infinite crystals and the second considers clusters. The calculations of the electronic structure for both were performed using Kohn and Sham density functional theory in the local approximation. For solids, pseudopotentials were used, and wave functions are expanded in plane waves. For clusters, a frozen core approximation was used, and the wave functions are expanded in a linear combination of Slater type atomic orbitals. The pseudopotential is semi-relativistic for neodymium, and the Hamiltonian is scalar relativistic for the clusters. The validation of the solid approach is performed using two test cases: YPO 4 and ScPO 4 . Two numerical tools were developed to compute electronic deformation density map, and calculate partial density of stases. A full optimisation of the lattice parameters with a relaxation of the atomic coordinates leads to correct structural and thermodynamic properties for the fluoro-apatite, compared to experience. The electronic deformation density maps do not show any significant differences. between the two calcium sites. but Mulliken analysis on the solid and on the clusters point out the more ionic behavior of the calcium in site 2. A neodymium substituted britholite is then studied. Neodymium location only induces local modifications in; the crystalline structure and few changes in the formation enthalpy. The electronic study points out an increase of the covalent character the bonding involving neodymium compared with the one related to calcium

  12. An evaluation of a paediatric radiation oncology teaching programme incorporating a SCORPIO teaching model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahern, Verity

    2011-01-01

    Full text: Many radiation oncology registrars have no exposure to paedi atrics during their training, To address this, the Paediatric Special Interest Group of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists has convened a biennial teaching course since 1997. The 2009 course incorpo rated the use of a Structured, Clinical, Objective-Referenced, Problem orientated, Integrated and Organized (SCORPIO) teaching model for small group tutorials. This study evaluates whether the paediatric radiation oncol ogy curriculum can be adapted to the SCORPIO teaching model and to evaluate the revised course from the registrars' perspective. Methods: Teaching and learning resources included a pre-course reading list, a lecture series programme and a SCORPIO workshop. Three evaluation instruments were developed: an overall Course Evaluation Survey for all participants, a SCORPIO Workshop Survey for registrars and a Teacher's SCORPIO Workshop Survey. Results: Forty-five radiation oncology registrars, 14 radiation therapists and five paediatric oncology registrars attended. Seventy-three per cent (47/64) of all participants completed the Course Evaluation Survey and 95% (38/40) of registrars completed the SCORPIO Workshop Survey. All teachers com pleted the Teacher's SCORPIO Survey (10/10). The overall educational expe rience was rated as good or excellent by 93% (43/47) of respondents. Ratings of satisfaction with lecture sessions were predominantly good or excellent. Registrars gave the SCORPIO workshop high ratings on each of 10 aspects of quality, with 82% allocating an excellent rating overall for the SCORPIO activity. Both registrars and teachers recommended more time for the SCORPIO stations. Conclusions: The 2009 course met the educational needs of the radiation oncology registrars and the SCORPIO workshop was a highly valued educa tional component.

  13. Incorporation of cooling-induced crystallisation into a 2-dimensional axisymmetric conduit heat flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heptinstall, D. A.; Neuberg, J. W.; Bouvet de Maisonneuve, C.; Collinson, A.; Taisne, B.; Morgan, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    Heat flow models can bring new insights into the thermal and rheological evolution of volcanic systems. We shall investigate the thermal processes and timescales in a crystallizing, static magma column, with a heat flow model of Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat. The latent heat of crystallization is initially computed with MELTS, as a function of pressure and temperature for an andesitic melt (SHV groundmass starting composition). Three fractional crystallization simulations are performed; two with initial pressures of 34MPa (runs 1 & 2) and one of 25MPa (run 3). Decompression rate was varied between 0.1MPa/°C (runs 1 & 3) and 0.2MPa/°C (run 2). Natural and experimental matrix glass compositions are accurately reproduced by all MELTS runs. The cumulative latent heat released for runs 1, 2 and 3 differs by less than 9% (8.69e5 J/kg*K, 9.32e5 J/kg*K, and 9.49e5 J/kg*K respectively). The 2D axisymmetric conductive cooling simulations consider a 30m-diameter conduit that extends from the surface to a depth of 1500m (34MPa). The temporal evolution of temperature is closely tracked at depths of 10m, 750m and 1400m in the center of the conduit, at the conduit walls, and 20m from the walls into the host rock. Following initial cooling by 7-15oC at 10m depth inside the conduit, the magma temperature rebounds through latent heat release by 32-35oC over 85-123 days to a maximum temperature of 1002-1005oC. At 10 m depth, it takes 4.1-9.2 years for the magma column to cool over 108-130oC and crystallize to 75wt%, at which point it cannot be easily remobilized. It takes 11-31.5 years to reach the same crystallinity at 750-1400m depth. We find a wide range in cooling timescales, particularly at depths of 750m or greater, attributed to the initial run pressure and dominant latent heat producing crystallizing phases (Quartz), where run 1 cools fastest and run 3 cools slowest. Surface cooling by comparison has the strongest influence on the upper tens of meters in all

  14. Incorporation of cooling-induced crystallization into a 2-dimensional axisymmetric conduit heat flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heptinstall, David; Bouvet de Maisonneuve, Caroline; Neuberg, Jurgen; Taisne, Benoit; Collinson, Amy

    2016-04-01

    Heat flow models can bring new insights into the thermal and rheological evolution of volcanic 3 systems. We shall investigate the thermal processes and timescales in a crystallizing, static 4 magma column, with a heat flow model of Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat. The latent heat of crystallization is initially computed with MELTS, as a function of pressure and temperature for an andesitic melt (SHV groundmass starting composition). Three fractional crystallization simulations are performed; two with initial pressures of 34MPa (runs 1 & 2) and one of 25MPa (run 3). Decompression rate was varied between 0.1MPa/° C (runs 1 & 3) and 0.2MPa/° C (run 2). Natural and experimental matrix glass compositions are accurately reproduced by all MELTS runs. The cumulative latent heat released for runs 1, 2 and 3 differs by less than 9% (8.69E5 J/kg*K, 9.32E5 J/kg*K, and 9.49E5 J/kg*K respectively). The 2D axisymmetric conductive cooling simulations consider a 30m-diameter conduit that extends from the surface to a depth of 1500m (34MPa). The temporal evolution of temperature is closely tracked at depths of 10m, 750m and 1400m in the centre of the conduit, at the conduit walls, and 20m from the walls into the host rock. Following initial cooling by 7-15oC at 10m depth inside the conduit, the magma temperature rebounds through latent heat release by 32-35oC over 85-123 days to a maximum temperature of 1002-1005oC. At 10m depth, it takes 4.1-9.2 years for the magma column to cool by 108-131oC and crystallize to 75wt%, at which point it cannot be easily remobilized. It takes 11-31.5 years to reach the same crystallinity at 750-1400m depth. We find a wide range in cooling timescales, particularly at depths of 750m or greater, attributed to the initial run pressure and the dominant latent heat producing crystallizing phase, Albite-rich Plagioclase Feldspar. Run 1 is shown to cool fastest and run 3 cool the slowest, with surface emissivity having the strongest cooling

  15. Incorporating the CALPHAD sublattice approach of ordering into the phase-field model with finite interface dissipation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Lijun; Stratmann, Matthias; Du, Yong; Sundman, Bo; Steinbach, Ingo

    2015-01-01

    A new approach to incorporate the sublattice models in the CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagram) formalism directly into the phase-field formalism is developed. In binary alloys, the sublattice models can be classified into two types (i.e., “Type I” and “Type II”), depending on whether a direct one-to-one relation between the element site fraction in the CALPHAD database and the phase concentration in the phase-field model exists (Type I), or not (Type II). For “Type II” sublattice models, the specific site fractions, corresponding to a given mole fraction, have to be established via internal relaxation between different sublattices. Internal minimization of sublattice occupancy and solute evolution during microstructure transformation leads, in general, to a solution superior to the separate solution of the individual problems. The present coupling technique is validated for Fe–C and Ni–Al alloys. Finally, the model is extended into multicomponent alloys and applied to simulate the nucleation process of VC monocarbide from austenite matrix in a steel containing vanadium

  16. Incorporation of expert variability into breast cancer treatment recommendation in designing clinical protocol guided fuzzy rule system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garibaldi, Jonathan M; Zhou, Shang-Ming; Wang, Xiao-Ying; John, Robert I; Ellis, Ian O

    2012-06-01

    It has been often demonstrated that clinicians exhibit both inter-expert and intra-expert variability when making difficult decisions. In contrast, the vast majority of computerized models that aim to provide automated support for such decisions do not explicitly recognize or replicate this variability. Furthermore, the perfect consistency of computerized models is often presented as a de facto benefit. In this paper, we describe a novel approach to incorporate variability within a fuzzy inference system using non-stationary fuzzy sets in order to replicate human variability. We apply our approach to a decision problem concerning the recommendation of post-operative breast cancer treatment; specifically, whether or not to administer chemotherapy based on assessment of five clinical variables: NPI (the Nottingham Prognostic Index), estrogen receptor status, vascular invasion, age and lymph node status. In doing so, we explore whether such explicit modeling of variability provides any performance advantage over a more conventional fuzzy approach, when tested on a set of 1310 unselected cases collected over a fourteen year period at the Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, UK. The experimental results show that the standard fuzzy inference system (that does not model variability) achieves overall agreement to clinical practice around 84.6% (95% CI: 84.1-84.9%), while the non-stationary fuzzy model can significantly increase performance to around 88.1% (95% CI: 88.0-88.2%), psystems in any application domain. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Computational cardiology: the bidomain based modified Hill model incorporating viscous effects for cardiac defibrillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cansız, Barış; Dal, Hüsnü; Kaliske, Michael

    2017-10-01

    Working mechanisms of the cardiac defibrillation are still in debate due to the limited experimental facilities and one-third of patients even do not respond to cardiac resynchronization therapy. With an aim to develop a milestone towards reaching the unrevealed mechanisms of the defibrillation phenomenon, we propose a bidomain based finite element formulation of cardiac electromechanics by taking into account the viscous effects that are disregarded by many researchers. To do so, the material is deemed as an electro-visco-active material and described by the modified Hill model (Cansız et al. in Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng 315:434-466, 2017). On the numerical side, we utilize a staggered solution method, where the elliptic and parabolic part of the bidomain equations and the mechanical field are solved sequentially. The comparative simulations designate that the viscoelastic and elastic formulations lead to remarkably different outcomes upon an externally applied electric field to the myocardial tissue. Besides, the achieved framework requires significantly less computational time and memory compared to monolithic schemes without loss of stability for the presented examples.

  18. Incorporating Vibration Test Results for the Advanced Stirling Convertor into the System Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meer, David W.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LM), and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. As part of the extended operation testing of this power system, the Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC) at NASA GRC undergo a vibration test sequence intended to simulate the vibration history that an ASC would experience when used in an ASRG for a space mission. During these tests, a data system collects several performance-related parameters from the convertor under test for health monitoring and analysis. Recently, an additional sensor recorded the slip table position during vibration testing to qualification level. The System Dynamic Model (SDM) integrates Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, mechanical mass, spring, damper systems, and electrical characteristics of the linear alternator and controller. This Paper presents a comparison of the performance of the ASC when exposed to vibration to that predicted by the SDM when exposed to the same vibration.

  19. Incorporating the gut microbiota into models of human and non-human primate ecology and evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Katherine R

    2016-01-01

    The mammalian gut is home to a diverse community of microbes. Advances in technology over the past two decades have allowed us to examine this community, the gut microbiota, in more detail, revealing a wide range of influences on host nutrition, health, and behavior. These host-gut microbe interactions appear to shape host plasticity and fitness in a variety of contexts, and therefore represent a key factor missing from existing models of human and non-human primate ecology and evolution. However, current studies of the gut microbiota tend to include limited contextual data or are clinical, making it difficult to directly test broad anthropological hypotheses. Here, I review what is known about the animal gut microbiota and provide examples of how gut microbiota research can be integrated into the study of human and non-human primate ecology and evolution with targeted data collection. Specifically, I examine how the gut microbiota may impact primate diet, energetics, disease resistance, and cognition. While gut microbiota research is proliferating rapidly, especially in the context of humans, there remain important gaps in our understanding of host-gut microbe interactions that will require an anthropological perspective to fill. Likewise, gut microbiota research will be an important tool for filling remaining gaps in anthropological research. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Searching for the true diet of marine predators: incorporating Bayesian priors into stable isotope mixing models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Chiaradia

    Full Text Available Reconstructing the diet of top marine predators is of great significance in several key areas of applied ecology, requiring accurate estimation of their true diet. However, from conventional stomach content analysis to recent stable isotope and DNA analyses, no one method is bias or error free. Here, we evaluated the accuracy of recent methods to estimate the actual proportion of a controlled diet fed to a top-predator seabird, the Little penguin (Eudyptula minor. We combined published DNA data of penguins scats with blood plasma δ(15N and δ(13C values to reconstruct the diet of individual penguins fed experimentally. Mismatch between controlled (true ingested diet and dietary estimates obtained through the separately use of stable isotope and DNA data suggested some degree of differences in prey assimilation (stable isotope and digestion rates (DNA analysis. In contrast, combined posterior isotope mixing model with DNA Bayesian priors provided the closest match to the true diet. We provided the first evidence suggesting that the combined use of these complementary techniques may provide better estimates of the actual diet of top marine predators- a powerful tool in applied ecology in the search for the true consumed diet.

  1. Modeling the suppression of boron transient enhanced diffusion in silicon by substitutional carbon incorporation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngau, Julie L.; Griffin, Peter B.; Plummer, James D.

    2001-08-01

    Recent work has indicated that the suppression of boron transient enhanced diffusion (TED) in carbon-rich Si is caused by nonequilibrium Si point defect concentrations, specifically the undersaturation of Si self-interstitials, that result from the coupled out-diffusion of carbon interstitials via the kick-out and Frank-Turnbull reactions. This study of boron TED reduction in Si1-x-yGexCy during 750 °C inert anneals has revealed that the use of an additional reaction that further reduces the Si self-interstitial concentration is necessary to describe accurately the time evolved diffusion behavior of boron. In this article, we present a comprehensive model which includes {311} defects, boron-interstitial clusters, a carbon kick-out reaction, a carbon Frank-Turnbull reaction, and a carbon interstitial-carbon substitutional (CiCs) pairing reaction that successfully simulates carbon suppression of boron TED at 750 °C for anneal times ranging from 10 s to 60 min.

  2. Modeling the suppression of boron transient enhanced diffusion in silicon by substitutional carbon incorporation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngau, Julie L.; Griffin, Peter B.; Plummer, James D.

    2001-01-01

    Recent work has indicated that the suppression of boron transient enhanced diffusion (TED) in carbon-rich Si is caused by nonequilibrium Si point defect concentrations, specifically the undersaturation of Si self-interstitials, that result from the coupled out-diffusion of carbon interstitials via the kick-out and Frank--Turnbull reactions. This study of boron TED reduction in Si 1-x-y Ge x C y during 750 o C inert anneals has revealed that the use of an additional reaction that further reduces the Si self-interstitial concentration is necessary to describe accurately the time evolved diffusion behavior of boron. In this article, we present a comprehensive model which includes {311} defects, boron-interstitial clusters, a carbon kick-out reaction, a carbon Frank--Turnbull reaction, and a carbon interstitial-carbon substitutional (C i C s ) pairing reaction that successfully simulates carbon suppression of boron TED at 750 o C for anneal times ranging from 10 s to 60 min. copyright 2001 American Institute of Physics

  3. Calibrating the BOLD signal during a motor task using an extended fusion model incorporating DOT, BOLD and ASL data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yücel, Meryem A.; Huppert, Theodore J.; Boas, David A.; Gagnon, Louis

    2012-01-01

    Multimodal imaging improves the accuracy of the localization and the quantification of brain activation when measuring different manifestations of the hemodynamic response associated with cerebral activity. In this study, we incorporated cerebral blood flow (CBF) changes measured with arterial spin labeling (ASL), Diffuse Optical Tomography (DOT) and blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) recordings to reconstruct changes in oxy- (ΔHbO2) and deoxyhemoglobin (ΔHbR). Using the Grubb relation between relative changes in CBF and cerebral blood volume (CBV), we incorporated the ASL measurement as a prior to the total hemoglobin concentration change (ΔHbT). We applied this ASL fusion model to both synthetic data and experimental multimodal recordings during a 2-sec finger-tapping task. Our results show that the new approach is very powerful in estimating ΔHbO2 and ΔHbR with high spatial and quantitative accuracy. Moreover, our approach allows the computation of baseline total hemoglobin concentration (HbT0) as well as of the BOLD calibration factor M on a single subject basis. We obtained an average HbT0 of 71 μM, an average M value of 0.18 and an average increase of 13 % in cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2), all of which are in agreement with values previously reported in the literature. Our method yields an independent measurement of M, which provides an alternative measurement to validate the hypercapnic calibration of the BOLD signal. PMID:22546318

  4. ENDOGENOUS ANALGESIA, DEPENDENCE, AND LATENT PAIN SENSITIZATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Bradley K; Corder, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    Endogenous activation of μ-opioid receptors (MORs) provides relief from acute pain. Recent studies have established that tissue inflammation produces latent pain sensitization (LS) that is masked by spinal MOR signaling for months, even after complete recovery from injury and re-establishment of normal pain thresholds. Disruption with MOR inverse agonists reinstates pain and precipitates cellular, somatic and aversive signs of physical withdrawal; this phenomenon requires N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor-mediated activation of calcium-sensitive adenylyl cyclase type 1 (AC1). In this review, we present a new conceptual model of the transition from acute to chronic pain, based on the delicate balance between LS and endogenous analgesia that develops after painful tissue injury. First, injury activates pain pathways. Second, the spinal cord establishes MOR constitutive activity (MORCA) as it attempts to control pain. Third, over time, the body becomes dependent on MORCA, which paradoxically sensitizes pain pathways. Stress or injury escalates opposing inhibitory and excitatory influences on nociceptive processing as a pathological consequence of increased endogenous opioid tone. Pain begets MORCA begets pain vulnerability in a vicious cycle. The final result is a silent insidious state characterized by the escalation of two opposing excitatory and inhibitory influences on pain transmission: LS mediated by AC1 (which maintains accelerator), and pain inhibition mediated by MORCA (which maintains the brake). This raises the prospect that opposing homeostatic interactions between MORCA analgesia and latent NMDAR–AC1-mediated pain sensitization create a lasting vulnerability to develop chronic pain. Thus, chronic pain syndromes may result from a failure in constitutive signaling of spinal MORs and a loss of endogenous analgesic control. An overarching long-term therapeutic goal of future research is to alleviate chronic pain by either: a) facilitating endogenous opioid

  5. Development of Advanced Continuum Models that Incorporate Nanomechanical Deformation into Engineering Analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zimmerman, Jonathan A.; Jones, Reese E.; Templeton, Jeremy Alan; McDowell, David L.; Mayeur, Jason R.; Tucker, Garritt J.; Bammann, Douglas J.; Gao, Huajian

    2008-09-01

    Materials with characteristic structures at nanoscale sizes exhibit significantly different mechani-cal responses from those predicted by conventional, macroscopic continuum theory. For example,nanocrystalline metals display an inverse Hall-Petch effect whereby the strength of the materialdecreases with decreasing grain size. The origin of this effect is believed to be a change in defor-mation mechanisms from dislocation motion across grains and pileup at grain boundaries at mi-croscopic grain sizes to rotation of grains and deformation within grain boundary interface regionsfor nanostructured materials. These rotational defects are represented by the mathematical conceptof disclinations. The ability to capture these effects within continuum theory, thereby connectingnanoscale materials phenomena and macroscale behavior, has eluded the research community.The goal of our project was to develop a consistent theory to model both the evolution ofdisclinations and their kinetics. Additionally, we sought to develop approaches to extract contin-uum mechanical information from nanoscale structure to verify any developed continuum theorythat includes dislocation and disclination behavior. These approaches yield engineering-scale ex-pressions to quantify elastic and inelastic deformation in all varieties of materials, even those thatpossess highly directional bonding within their molecular structures such as liquid crystals, cova-lent ceramics, polymers and biological materials. This level of accuracy is critical for engineeringdesign and thermo-mechanical analysis is performed in micro- and nanosystems. The researchproposed here innovates on how these nanoscale deformation mechanisms should be incorporatedinto a continuum mechanical formulation, and provides the foundation upon which to develop ameans for predicting the performance of advanced engineering materials.4 AcknowledgmentThe authors acknowledge helpful discussions with Farid F. Abraham, Youping Chen, Terry J

  6. Incorporating transportation network modeling tools within transportation economic impact studies of disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Wen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Transportation system disruption due to a disaster results in "ripple effects" throughout the entire transportation system of a metropolitan region. Many researchers have focused on the economic costs of transportation system disruptions in transportation-related industries, specifïcally within commerce and logistics, in the assessment of the regional economic costs. However, the foundation of an assessment of the regional economic costs of a disaster needs to include the evaluation of consumer surplus in addition to the direct cost for reconstruction of the regional transportation system. The objective of this study is to propose a method to estimate the regional consumer surplus based on indirect economic costs of a disaster on intermodal transportation systems in the context of diverting vehicles and trains. The computational methods used to assess the regional indirect economic costs sustained by the highway and railroad system can utilize readily available state departments of transportation (DOTs and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs traffic models allowing prioritization of regional recovery plans after a disaster and strengthening of infrastructure before a disaster. Hurricane Katrina is one of the most devastating hurricanes in the history of the United States. Due to the significance of Hurricane Katrina, a case study is presented to evaluate consumer surplus in the Gulf Coast Region of Mississippi. Results from the case study indicate the costs of rerouting and congestion delays in the regional highway system and the rent costs of right-of-way in the regional railroad system are major factors of the indirect costs in the consumer surplus.

  7. A quantitative systems pharmacology approach, incorporating a novel liver model, for predicting pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherkaoui-Rbati, Mohammed H; Paine, Stuart W; Littlewood, Peter; Rauch, Cyril

    2017-01-01

    All pharmaceutical companies are required to assess pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions (DDIs) of new chemical entities (NCEs) and mathematical prediction helps to select the best NCE candidate with regard to adverse effects resulting from a DDI before any costly clinical studies. Most current models assume that the liver is a homogeneous organ where the majority of the metabolism occurs. However, the circulatory system of the liver has a complex hierarchical geometry which distributes xenobiotics throughout the organ. Nevertheless, the lobule (liver unit), located at the end of each branch, is composed of many sinusoids where the blood flow can vary and therefore creates heterogeneity (e.g. drug concentration, enzyme level). A liver model was constructed by describing the geometry of a lobule, where the blood velocity increases toward the central vein, and by modeling the exchange mechanisms between the blood and hepatocytes. Moreover, the three major DDI mechanisms of metabolic enzymes; competitive inhibition, mechanism based inhibition and induction, were accounted for with an undefined number of drugs and/or enzymes. The liver model was incorporated into a physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and simulations produced, that in turn were compared to ten clinical results. The liver model generated a hierarchy of 5 sinusoidal levels and estimated a blood volume of 283 mL and a cell density of 193 × 106 cells/g in the liver. The overall PBPK model predicted the pharmacokinetics of midazolam and the magnitude of the clinical DDI with perpetrator drug(s) including spatial and temporal enzyme levels changes. The model presented herein may reduce costs and the use of laboratory animals and give the opportunity to explore different clinical scenarios, which reduce the risk of adverse events, prior to costly human clinical studies.

  8. A quantitative systems pharmacology approach, incorporating a novel liver model, for predicting pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed H Cherkaoui-Rbati

    Full Text Available All pharmaceutical companies are required to assess pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions (DDIs of new chemical entities (NCEs and mathematical prediction helps to select the best NCE candidate with regard to adverse effects resulting from a DDI before any costly clinical studies. Most current models assume that the liver is a homogeneous organ where the majority of the metabolism occurs. However, the circulatory system of the liver has a complex hierarchical geometry which distributes xenobiotics throughout the organ. Nevertheless, the lobule (liver unit, located at the end of each branch, is composed of many sinusoids where the blood flow can vary and therefore creates heterogeneity (e.g. drug concentration, enzyme level. A liver model was constructed by describing the geometry of a lobule, where the blood velocity increases toward the central vein, and by modeling the exchange mechanisms between the blood and hepatocytes. Moreover, the three major DDI mechanisms of metabolic enzymes; competitive inhibition, mechanism based inhibition and induction, were accounted for with an undefined number of drugs and/or enzymes. The liver model was incorporated into a physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK model and simulations produced, that in turn were compared to ten clinical results. The liver model generated a hierarchy of 5 sinusoidal levels and estimated a blood volume of 283 mL and a cell density of 193 × 106 cells/g in the liver. The overall PBPK model predicted the pharmacokinetics of midazolam and the magnitude of the clinical DDI with perpetrator drug(s including spatial and temporal enzyme levels changes. The model presented herein may reduce costs and the use of laboratory animals and give the opportunity to explore different clinical scenarios, which reduce the risk of adverse events, prior to costly human clinical studies.

  9. Endogenous Magnetic Reconnection in Solar Coronal Loops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asgari-Targhi, M.; Coppi, B.; Basu, B.; Fletcher, A.; Golub, L.

    2017-12-01

    We propose that a magneto-thermal reconnection process occurring in coronal loops be the source of the heating of the Solar Corona [1]. In the adopted model, magnetic reconnection is associated with electron temperature gradients, anisotropic electron temperature fluctuations and plasma current density gradients [2]. The input parameters for our theoretical model are derived from the most recent observations of the Solar Corona. In addition, the relevant (endogenous) collective modes can produce high energy particle populations. An endogenous reconnection process is defined as being driven by factors internal to the region where reconnection takes place. *Sponsored in part by the U.S. D.O.E. and the Kavli Foundation* [1] Beafume, P., Coppi, B. and Golub, L., (1992) Ap. J. 393, 396. [2] Coppi, B. and Basu, B. (2017) MIT-LNS Report HEP 17/01.

  10. 59 eyes with endogenous endophthalmitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerrum, Søren Solborg; la Cour, Morten

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To study the epidemiology of patients with endogenous endophthalmitis in Denmark. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective and prospective case series of 59 eyes in patients with endogenous endophthalmitis in Denmark between 2000 and 2016. RESULTS: The age of the patients ranged from 28 to......, the visual outcome and the mortality of the patients. The epidemiology of the disease is very different in Scandinavia compared to Asia. The visual prognosis remains grave and the majority of the eyes lose useful vision....

  11. Endogenous Growth, Monetary Shocks and Nominal Rigidities

    OpenAIRE

    Annicchiarico, Barbara; Pelloni, Alessandra; Lorenza, Rossi

    2010-01-01

    We introduce endogenous growth in an otherwise standard NK model with staggered prices and wages. Some results follow: (i) monetary volatility negatively affects long-run growth; (ii) the relation between nominal volatility and growth depends on the persistence of the nominal shocks and on the Taylor rule considered; (iii) a Taylor rule with smoothing increases the negative effect of nominal volatility on mean growth.

  12. Social Security, Intergenerational Transfers, and Endogenous Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Junsen Zhang; Junxi Zhang

    1998-01-01

    In this paper, the effects of social security in a simple model of endogenous growth with alternative motives of having children are analyzed. It shows how the effects of social security depend on the size of the social security tax, the motive to have children, and the pattern of intergenerational transfers. The pattern of intergenerational transfers itself, however, is shown to change with the social security tax rate. When the social security tax is not too high, social security increases ...

  13. Development of a keratinocyte-based screening model for antipsoriatic drugs using green fluorescent protein under the control of an endogenous promoter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pol, Arno; van Ruissen, Fred; Schalkwijk, Joost

    2002-08-01

    Inflamed epidermis (psoriasis, wound healing, ultraviolet-irradiated skin) harbors keratinocytes that are hyperproliferative and display an abnormal differentiation program. A distinct feature of this so-called regenerative maturation pathway is the expression of proteins such as the cytokeratins CK6, CK16, and CK17 and the antiinflammatory protein SKALP/elafin. These proteins are absent in normal skin but highly induced in lesional psoriatic skin. Expression of these genes can be used as a surrogate marker for psoriasis in drug-screening procedures of large compound libraries. The aim of this study was to develop a keratinocyte cell line that contained a reporter gene under the control of a psoriasis-associated endogenous promoter and demonstrate its use in an assay suitable for screening. We generated a stably transfected keratinocyte cell line that expresses enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP), under the control of a 0.8-kb fragment derived from the promoter of the SKALP/elafin gene, which confers high levels of tissue-specific expression at the mRNA level. Induction of the SKALP promoter by tumor necrosis factor-alpha resulted in increased expression levels of the secreted SKALP-EGFP fusion protein as assessed by direct readout of fluorescence and fluorescence polarization in 96-well cell culture plates. The fold stimulation of the reporter gene was comparable to that of the endogenous SKALP gene as assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Although the dynamic range of the screening system is limited, the small standard deviation yields a Z factor of 0.49. This indicates that the assay is suitable as a high-throughput screen, and provides proof of the concept that a secreted EGFP fusion protein under the control of a physiologically relevant endogenous promoter can be used as a fluorescence-based high-throughput screen for differentiation-modifying or antiinflammatory compounds that act via the keratinocyte.

  14. Diverging patterns with endogenous labor migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichlin, P; Rustichini, A

    1998-05-05

    "The standard neoclassical model cannot explain persistent migration flows and lack of cross-country convergence when capital and labor are mobile. Here we present a model where both phenomena may take place.... Our model is based on the Arrow-Romer approach to endogenous growth theory. We single out the importance of a (however weak) scale effect from the size of the workforce.... The main conclusion of this simple model is that lack of convergence, or even divergence, among countries is possible, even with perfect capital mobility and labor mobility." excerpt

  15. Towards a Predictive Thermodynamic Model of Oxidation States of Uranium Incorporated in Fe (hydr) oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bagus, Paul S. [Univ. of North Texas, Denton, TX (United States)

    2013-01-01

    -Level Excited States: Consequences For X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy”, J. Elec. Spectros. and Related Phenom., 200, 174 (2015) describes our first application of these methods. As well as applications to problems and materials of direct interest for our PNNL colleagues, we have pursued applications of fundamental theoretical significance for the analysis and interpretation of XPS and XAS spectra. These studies are important for the development of the fields of core-level spectroscopies as well as to advance our capabilities for applications of interest to our PNNL colleagues. An excellent example is our study of the surface core-level shifts, SCLS, for the surface and bulk atoms of an oxide that provides a new approach to understanding how the surface electronic of oxides differs from that in the bulk of the material. This work has the potential to lead to a new key to understanding the reactivity of oxide surfaces. Our theoretical studies use cluster models with finite numbers of atoms to describe the properties of condensed phases and crystals. This approach has allowed us to focus on the local atomistic, chemical interactions. For these clusters, we obtain orbitals and spinors through the solution of the Hartree-Fock, HF, and the fully relativistic Dirac HF equations. These orbitals are used to form configuration mixing wavefunctions which treat the many-body effects responsible for the open shell angular momentum coupling and for the satellites of the core-level spectra. Our efforts have been in two complementary directions. As well as the applications described above, we have placed major emphasis on the enhancement and extension of our theoretical and computational capabilities so that we can treat complex systems with a greater range of many-body effects. Noteworthy accomplishments in terms of method development and enhancement have included: (1) An improvement in our treatment of the large matrices that must be handled when many-body effects are treated. (2

  16. A New Paradigm For Modeling Fault Zone Inelasticity: A Multiscale Continuum Framework Incorporating Spontaneous Localization and Grain Fragmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbanna, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    The brittle portion of the crust contains structural features such as faults, jogs, joints, bends and cataclastic zones that span a wide range of length scales. These features may have a profound effect on earthquake nucleation, propagation and arrest. Incorporating these existing features in modeling and the ability to spontaneously generate new one in response to earthquake loading is crucial for predicting seismicity patterns, distribution of aftershocks and nucleation sites, earthquakes arrest mechanisms, and topological changes in the seismogenic zone structure. Here, we report on our efforts in modeling two important mechanisms contributing to the evolution of fault zone topology: (1) Grain comminution at the submeter scale, and (2) Secondary faulting/plasticity at the scale of few to hundreds of meters. We use the finite element software Abaqus to model the dynamic rupture. The constitutive response of the fault zone is modeled using the Shear Transformation Zone theory, a non-equilibrium statistical thermodynamic framework for modeling plastic deformation and localization in amorphous materials such as fault gouge. The gouge layer is modeled as 2D plane strain region with a finite thickness and heterogeenous distribution of porosity. By coupling the amorphous gouge with the surrounding elastic bulk, the model introduces a set of novel features that go beyond the state of the art. These include: (1) self-consistent rate dependent plasticity with a physically-motivated set of internal variables, (2) non-locality that alleviates mesh dependence of shear band formation, (3) spontaneous evolution of fault roughness and its strike which affects ground motion generation and the local stress fields, and (4) spontaneous evolution of grain size and fault zone fabric.

  17. A bi-level integrated generation-transmission planning model incorporating the impacts of demand response by operation simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Ning; Hu, Zhaoguang; Springer, Cecilia; Li, Yanning; Shen, Bo

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We put forward a novel bi-level integrated power system planning model. • Generation expansion planning and transmission expansion planning are combined. • The effects of two sorts of demand response in reducing peak load are considered. • Operation simulation is conducted to reflect the actual effects of demand response. • The interactions between the two levels can guarantee a reasonably optimal result. - Abstract: If all the resources in power supply side, transmission part, and power demand side are considered together, the optimal expansion scheme from the perspective of the whole system can be achieved. In this paper, generation expansion planning and transmission expansion planning are combined into one model. Moreover, the effects of demand response in reducing peak load are taken into account in the planning model, which can cut back the generation expansion capacity and transmission expansion capacity. Existing approaches to considering demand response for planning tend to overestimate the impacts of demand response on peak load reduction. These approaches usually focus on power reduction at the moment of peak load without considering the situations in which load demand at another moment may unexpectedly become the new peak load due to demand response. These situations are analyzed in this paper. Accordingly, a novel approach to incorporating demand response in a planning model is proposed. A modified unit commitment model with demand response is utilized. The planning model is thereby a bi-level model with interactions between generation-transmission expansion planning and operation simulation to reflect the actual effects of demand response and find the reasonably optimal planning result.

  18. Gravity effects on endogenous movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnsson, Anders; Antonsen, Frank

    Gravity effects on endogenous movements A. Johnsson * and F. Antonsen *+ * Department of Physics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology,NO-7491, Trond-heim, Norway, E-mail: anders.johnsson@ntnu.no + Present address: Statoil Research Center Trondheim, NO-7005, Trondheim, Norway Circumnutations in stems/shoots exist in many plants and often consists of more or less regular helical movements around the plumb line under Earth conditions. Recent results on circumnu-tations of Arabidopsis in space (Johnsson et al. 2009) showed that minute amplitude oscilla-tions exist in weightlessness, but that centripetal acceleration (mimicking the gravity) amplified and/or created large amplitude oscillations. Fundamental mechanisms underlying these results will be discussed by modeling the plant tissue as a cylinder of cells coupled together. As a starting point we have modeled (Antonsen 1998) standing waves on a ring of biological cells, as first discussed in a classical paper (Turing 1952). If the coupled cells can change their water content, an `extension' wave could move around the ring. We have studied several, stacked rings of cells coupled into a cylinder that together represent a cylindrical plant tissue. Waves of extensions travelling around the cylinder could then represent the observable circumnutations. The coupling between cells can be due to cell-to-cell diffusion, or to transport via channels, and the coupling can be modeled to vary in both longitudinal and transversal direction of the cylinder. The results from ISS experiments indicate that this cylindrical model of coupled cells should be able to 1) show self-sustained oscillations without the impact of gravity (being en-dogenous) and 2) show how an environmental factor like gravity can amplify or generate the oscillatory movements. Gravity has been introduced in the model by a negative, time-delayed feed-back transport across the cylinder. This represents the physiological reactions to acceler

  19. Modelling sediment dynamics due to hillslope-river interactions : incorporating fluvial behaviour in landscape evolution model LAPSUS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baartman, Jantiene E. M.; van Gorp, Wouter; Temme, Arnaud J. A. M.; Schoorl, Jeroen M.

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the three-dimensional development of landscapes over time. Different LEMs have different foci, e.g. erosional behaviour, river dynamics, the fluvial domain, hillslopes or a combination. LEM LAPSUS is a relatively simple cellular model operating on

  20. An improved analytical model of 4H-SiC MESFET incorporating bulk and interface trapping effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hema Lata Rao, M.; Narasimha Murty, N. V. L.

    2015-01-01

    An improved analytical model for the current—voltage (I-V) characteristics of the 4H-SiC metal semiconductor field effect transistor (MESFET) on a high purity semi-insulating (HPSI) substrate with trapping and thermal effects is presented. The 4H-SiC MESFET structure includes a stack of HPSI substrates and a uniformly doped channel layer. The trapping effects include both the effect of multiple deep-level traps in the substrate and surface traps between the gate to source/drain. The self-heating effects are also incorporated to obtain the accurate and realistic nature of the analytical model. The importance of the proposed model is emphasised through the inclusion of the recent and exact nature of the traps in the 4H-SiC HPSI substrate responsible for substrate compensation. The analytical model is used to exhibit DC I-V characteristics of the device with and without trapping and thermal effects. From the results, the current degradation is observed due to the surface and substrate trapping effects and the negative conductance introduced by the self-heating effect at a high drain voltage. The calculated results are compared with reported experimental and two-dimensional simulations (Silvaco®-TCAD). The proposed model also illustrates the effectiveness of the gate—source distance scaling effect compared to the gate—drain scaling effect in optimizing 4H-SiC MESFET performance. Results demonstrate that the proposed I-V model of 4H-SiC MESFET is suitable for realizing SiC based monolithic circuits (MMICs) on HPSI substrates.

  1. An improved analytical model of 4H-SiC MESFET incorporating bulk and interface trapping effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, M. Hema Lata; Murty, N. V. L. Narasimha

    2015-01-01

    An improved analytical model for the current—voltage (I–V) characteristics of the 4H-SiC metal semiconductor field effect transistor (MESFET) on a high purity semi-insulating (HPSI) substrate with trapping and thermal effects is presented. The 4H-SiC MESFET structure includes a stack of HPSI substrates and a uniformly doped channel layer. The trapping effects include both the effect of multiple deep-level traps in the substrate and surface traps between the gate to source/drain. The self-heating effects are also incorporated to obtain the accurate and realistic nature of the analytical model. The importance of the proposed model is emphasised through the inclusion of the recent and exact nature of the traps in the 4H-SiC HPSI substrate responsible for substrate compensation. The analytical model is used to exhibit DC I–V characteristics of the device with and without trapping and thermal effects. From the results, the current degradation is observed due to the surface and substrate trapping effects and the negative conductance introduced by the self-heating effect at a high drain voltage. The calculated results are compared with reported experimental and two-dimensional simulations (Silvaco®-TCAD). The proposed model also illustrates the effectiveness of the gate—source distance scaling effect compared to the gate—drain scaling effect in optimizing 4H-SiC MESFET performance. Results demonstrate that the proposed I–V model of 4H-SiC MESFET is suitable for realizing SiC based monolithic circuits (MMICs) on HPSI substrates. (semiconductor devices)

  2. Viral particles of endogenous betaretroviruses are released in the sheep uterus and infect the conceptus trophectoderm in a transspecies embryo transfer model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Sarah G; Arnaud, Frederick; Burghardt, Robert C; Satterfield, M Carey; Fleming, Jo-Ann G W; Long, Charles R; Hanna, Carol; Murphy, Lita; Biek, Roman; Palmarini, Massimo; Spencer, Thomas E

    2010-09-01

    The sheep genome contains multiple copies of endogenous betaretroviruses highly related to the exogenous and oncogenic jaagsiekte sheep retrovirus (JSRV). The endogenous JSRVs (enJSRVs) are abundantly expressed in the uterine luminal and glandular epithelia as well as in the conceptus trophectoderm and are essential for conceptus elongation and trophectoderm growth and development. Of note, enJSRVs are present in sheep and goats but not cattle. At least 5 of the 27 enJSRV loci cloned to date possess an intact genomic organization and are able to produce viral particles in vitro. In this study, we found that enJSRVs form viral particles that are released into the uterine lumen of sheep. In order to test the infectious potential of enJSRV particles in the uterus, we transferred bovine blastocysts into synchronized ovine recipients and allowed them to develop for 13 days. Analysis of microdissected trophectoderm of the bovine conceptuses revealed the presence of enJSRV RNA and, in some cases, DNA. Interestingly, we found that RNAs belonging to only the most recently integrated enJSRV loci were packaged into viral particles and transmitted to the trophectoderm. Collectively, these results support the hypothesis that intact enJSRV loci expressed in the uterine endometrial epithelia are shed into the uterine lumen and could potentially transduce the conceptus trophectoderm. The essential role played by enJSRVs in sheep reproductive biology could also be played by endometrium-derived viral particles that influence development and differentiation of the trophectoderm.

  3. Incorporation of velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and particle surface friction into kinetic theory for modeling granular flow cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Yifei; Feng, Zhi-Gang

    2017-12-01

    Kinetic theory (KT) has been successfully used to model rapid granular flows in which particle interactions are frictionless and near elastic. However, it fails when particle interactions become frictional and inelastic. For example, the KT is not able to accurately predict the free cooling process of a vibrated granular medium that consists of inelastic frictional particles under microgravity. The main reason that the classical KT fails to model these flows is due to its inability to account for the particle surface friction and its inelastic behavior, which are the two most important factors that need be considered in modeling collisional granular flows. In this study, we have modified the KT model that is able to incorporate these two factors. The inelasticity of a particle is considered by establishing a velocity-dependent expression for the restitution coefficient based on many experimental studies found in the literature, and the particle friction effect is included by using a tangential restitution coefficient that is related to the particle friction coefficient. Theoretical predictions of the free cooling process by the classical KT and the improved KT are compared with the experimental results from a study conducted on an airplane undergoing parabolic flights without the influence of gravity [Y. Grasselli, G. Bossis, and G. Goutallier, Europhys. Lett. 86, 60007 (2009)10.1209/0295-5075/86/60007]. Our results show that both the velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and the particle surface friction are important in predicting the free cooling process of granular flows; the modified KT model that integrates these two factors is able to improve the simulation results and leads to better agreement with the experimental results.

  4. Incorporating a prediction of postgrazing herbage mass into a whole-farm model for pasture-based dairy systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregorini, P; Galli, J; Romera, A J; Levy, G; Macdonald, K A; Fernandez, H H; Beukes, P C

    2014-07-01

    The DairyNZ whole-farm model (WFM; DairyNZ, Hamilton, New Zealand) consists of a framework that links component models for animal, pastures, crops, and soils. The model was developed to assist with analysis and design of pasture-based farm systems. New (this work) and revised (e.g., cow, pasture, crops) component models can be added to the WFM, keeping the model flexible and up to date. Nevertheless, the WFM does not account for plant-animal relationships determining herbage-depletion dynamics. The user has to preset the maximum allowable level of herbage depletion [i.e., postgrazing herbage mass (residuals)] throughout the year. Because residuals have a direct effect on herbage regrowth, the WFM in its current form does not dynamically simulate the effect of grazing pressure on herbage depletion and consequent effect on herbage regrowth. The management of grazing pressure is a key component of pasture-based dairy systems. Thus, the main objective of the present work was to develop a new version of the WFM able to predict residuals, and thereby simulate related effects of grazing pressure dynamically at the farm scale. This objective was accomplished by incorporating a new component model into the WFM. This model represents plant-animal relationships, for example sward structure and herbage intake rate, and resulting level of herbage depletion. The sensitivity of the new version of the WFM was evaluated and then the new WFM was tested against an experimental data set previously used to evaluate the WFM and to illustrate the adequacy and improvement of the model development. Key outputs variables of the new version pertinent to this work (milk production, herbage dry matter intake, intake rate, harvesting efficiency, and residuals) responded acceptably to a range of input variables. The relative prediction errors for monthly and mean annual residual predictions were 20 and 5%, respectively. Monthly predictions of residuals had a line bias (1.5%), with a proportion

  5. Further comparisons of endogenous pyrogens and leukocytic endogenous mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kampschmidt, R F; Upchurch, H F; Worthington, M L

    1983-07-01

    It was recently shown (Murphy et al., Infect. Immun. 34:177-183), that rabbit macrophages produce two biochemically and immunologically distinct endogenous pyrogens. One of these has or copurifies with substances having a molecular weight of 13,000 and a pI of 7.3. This protein was produced by blood monocytes or inflammatory cells elicited in 16-h rabbit peritoneal exudates. These acute peritoneal exudates were produced by the intraperitoneal injection of large volumes of saline containing shellfish glycogen. When the leukocytes in these exudates were washed and incubated at 37 degrees C in saline, they released an endogenous pyrogen. The injection of this pyrogen into rabbits, rats, or mice caused the biological manifestations which have been attributed to leukocytic endogenous mediator. These effects were increases in blood neutrophils, the lowering of plasma iron and zinc levels, and the increased synthesis of the acute-phase proteins. The other rabbit endogenous pyrogen seems to be a family of proteins with isoelectric points between 4.5 and 5.0. These proteins are produced by macrophages in the lung, liver, or in chronic peritoneal exudates. In these experiments, the lower-isoelectric-point endogenous pyrogens were produced by macrophages from the peritoneal cavity of rabbits that had been injected 4 days earlier with 50 ml of light mineral oil. These rabbit pyrogens were found to have leukocytic endogenous mediator activity in mice but to be completely inactive in rats. When injected into rabbits, these proteins produced fever, lowered plasma iron, increased blood neutrophils, but failed to elevate plasma fibrinogen.

  6. Comparison in the calculation of committed effective dose using the ICRP 30 and ICRP 60 models for a repeated incorporation by inhalation of I-125

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carreno P, A.L.; Cortes C, A.; Alonso V, G.; Serrano P, F.

    2005-01-01

    Presently work, a comparison in the calculation of committed effective dose using the models of the ICRP 30 and those of the ICRP 60 for the analysis of internal dose due to repeated incorporation of I-125 is shown. The estimations of incorporated activity are obtained starting from the proportionate data for an exercise of inter comparison, with which it should be determined the internal dose later on. For to estimate the initial activity incorporated by repeated dose was assumed that this it was given through of multiple individual incorporations which happened in the middle points of the monitoring periods. The results using the models of the ICRP 30 and of the ICRP 60 are compared and the causes of the differences are analyzed. (Author)

  7. Inequality in Human Capital and Endogenous Credit Constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hai, Rong; Heckman, James J

    2017-04-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of inequality in human capital with an emphasis on the role of the credit constraints. We develop and estimate a model in which individuals face uninsured human capital risks and invest in education, acquire work experience, accumulate assets and smooth consumption. Agents can borrow from the private lending market and from government student loan programs. The private market credit limit is explicitly derived by extending the natural borrowing limit of Aiyagari (1994) to incorporate endogenous labor supply, human capital accumulation, psychic costs of working, and age. We quantify the effects of cognitive ability, noncognitive ability, parental education, and parental wealth on educational attainment, wages, and consumption. We conduct counterfactual experiments with respect to tuition subsidies and enhanced student loan limits and evaluate their effects on educational attainment and inequality. We compare the performance of our model with an influential ad hoc model in the literature with education-specific fixed loan limits. We find evidence of substantial life cycle credit constraints that affect human capital accumulation and inequality. The constrained fall into two groups: those who are permanently poor over their lifetimes and a group of well-endowed individuals with rising high levels of acquired skills who are constrained early in their life cycles. Equalizing cognitive and noncognitive ability has dramatic effects on inequality. Equalizing parental backgrounds has much weaker effects. Tuition costs have weak effects on inequality.

  8. A modified Wright-Fisher model that incorporates Ne: A variant of the standard model with increased biological realism and reduced computational complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Gossmann, Toni I; Waxman, David

    2016-03-21

    The Wright-Fisher model is an important model in evolutionary biology and population genetics. It has been applied in numerous analyses of finite populations with discrete generations. It is recognised that real populations can behave, in some key aspects, as though their size that is not the census size, N, but rather a smaller size, namely the effective population size, Ne. However, in the Wright-Fisher model, there is no distinction between the effective and census population sizes. Equivalently, we can say that in this model, Ne coincides with N. The Wright-Fisher model therefore lacks an important aspect of biological realism. Here, we present a method that allows Ne to be directly incorporated into the Wright-Fisher model. The modified model involves matrices whose size is determined by Ne. Thus apart from increased biological realism, the modified model also has reduced computational complexity, particularly so when Ne⪡N. For complex problems, it may be hard or impossible to numerically analyse the most commonly-used approximation of the Wright-Fisher model that incorporates Ne, namely the diffusion approximation. An alternative approach is simulation. However, the simulations need to be sufficiently detailed that they yield an effective size that is different to the census size. Simulations may also be time consuming and have attendant statistical errors. The method presented in this work may then be the only alternative to simulations, when Ne differs from N. We illustrate the straightforward application of the method to some problems involving allele fixation and the determination of the equilibrium site frequency spectrum. We then apply the method to the problem of fixation when three alleles are segregating in a population. This latter problem is significantly more complex than a two allele problem and since the diffusion equation cannot be numerically solved, the only other way Ne can be incorporated into the analysis is by simulation. We have

  9. A subset of osteoblasts expressing high endogenous levels of PPARgamma switches fate to adipocytes in the rat calvaria cell culture model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuji Yoshiko

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding fate choice and fate switching between the osteoblast lineage (ObL and adipocyte lineage (AdL is important to understand both the developmental inter-relationships between osteoblasts and adipocytes and the impact of changes in fate allocation between the two lineages in normal aging and certain diseases. The goal of this study was to determine when during lineage progression ObL cells are susceptible to an AdL fate switch by activation of endogenous peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPARgamma.Multiple rat calvaria cells within the ObL developmental hierarchy were isolated by either fractionation on the basis of expression of alkaline phosphatase or retrospective identification of single cell-derived colonies, and treated with BRL-49653 (BRL, a synthetic ligand for PPARgamma. About 30% of the total single cell-derived colonies expressed adipogenic potential (defined cytochemically when BRL was present. Profiling of ObL and AdL markers by qRT-PCR on amplified cRNA from over 160 colonies revealed that BRL-dependent adipogenic potential correlated with endogenous PPARgamma mRNA levels. Unexpectedly, a significant subset of relatively mature ObL cells exhibited osteo-adipogenic bipotentiality. Western blotting and immunocytochemistry confirmed that ObL cells co-expressed multiple mesenchymal lineage determinants (runt-related transcription factor 2 (Runx2, PPARgamma, Sox9 and MyoD which localized in the cytoplasm initially, and only Runx2 translocated to the nucleus during ObL progression. Notably, however, some cells exhibited both PPARgamma and Runx2 nuclear labeling with concomitant upregulation of expression of their target genes with BRL treatment.We conclude that not only immature but a subset of relatively mature ObL cells characterized by relatively high levels of endogenous PPARgamma expression can be switched to the AdL. The fact that some ObL cells maintain capacity for adipogenic fate selection even at relatively

  10. Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Lei; Fang, Hongwei; Xu, Xingya; He, Guojian; Zhang, Xuesong; Reible, Danny

    2017-08-01

    Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.

  11. Fuzzy Case-Based Reasoning in Product Style Acquisition Incorporating Valence-Arousal-Based Emotional Cellular Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuqian Shi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Emotional cellular (EC, proposed in our previous works, is a kind of semantic cell that contains kernel and shell and the kernel is formalized by a triple- L = , where P denotes a typical set of positive examples relative to word-L, d is a pseudodistance measure on emotional two-dimensional space: valence-arousal, and δ is a probability density function on positive real number field. The basic idea of EC model is to assume that the neighborhood radius of each semantic concept is uncertain, and this uncertainty will be measured by one-dimensional density function δ. In this paper, product form features were evaluated by using ECs and to establish the product style database, fuzzy case based reasoning (FCBR model under a defined similarity measurement based on fuzzy nearest neighbors (FNN incorporating EC was applied to extract product styles. A mathematical formalized inference system for product style was also proposed, and it also includes uncertainty measurement tool emotional cellular. A case study of style acquisition of mobile phones illustrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  12. Incorporating a vascular term into a reference region model for the analysis of DCE-MRI data: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faranesh, A Z; Yankeelov, T E

    2008-01-01

    A vascular term was incorporated into a reference region (RR) model analysis of DCE-MRI data, and its effect on the accuracy of the model in estimating tissue kinetic parameters in a tissue of interest (TOI) was systematically investigated through computer simulations. Errors in the TOI volume transfer constant (K trans,TOI ) and TOI extravascular extracellular volume (v e,TOI ) that result when the fractional plasma volume (v p ) was included in (1) neither region, (2) TOI only (3) both regions were investigated. For nominal values of tumor kinetic parameters (v e,TOI = 0.40 and K trans,TOI = 0.25 min -1 ), if the vascular term was included in neither region or the TOI only, K trans,TOI error was within 20% for 0.03 p,TOI e,TOI error was within 20% for the range of v p,TOI studied (0.01-0.10). The effects of temporal resolution were shown to be complex, and in some cases errors increased with increasing temporal resolution

  13. Incorporating adolescent females' perceptions of their partners' attitudes toward condoms into a model of female adolescent condom use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogben, Matthew; Liddon, Nicole; Pierce, Antonya; Sawyer, Mary; Papp, John R; Black, Carolyn M; Koumans, Emilia H

    2006-11-01

    The highest rates of sexually transmitted infections in the U.S. occur among adolescent females. One prevention strategy promoted for sexually active adolescents is condom use: therefore, influences on correct and consistent condom use are worth examining. Because interventions and observational research into predicting and increasing condom use have yielded mixed results, we hypothesized that a theoretically driven model incorporating female adolescents' perceptions about partner sentiments along with their own perceptions, intentions, and behaviours would improve condom use predictions. We also measured condom use errors and consistency for a more precise estimate of effective use than is common in the literature. In three structural equation models tested on a sample of 519 female adolescents, we found that intentions were associated with both correct and consistent condom use; that females' expectancy beliefs about condom use were associated with intentions; and that females' expectancy beliefs about partners' sentiments reduced the impact of their expectancy beliefs about condom use. The implications of these relations upon condom use correctness and consistency are discussed with respect to informing interventions, among other future research.

  14. Incorporation of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging data into a simple mathematical model of tumor growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atuegwu, N C; Colvin, D C; Loveless, M E; Gore, J C; Yankeelov, T E; Xu, L

    2012-01-01

    We build on previous work to show how serial diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) data can be used to estimate proliferation rates in a rat model of brain cancer. Thirteen rats were inoculated intracranially with 9L tumor cells; eight rats were treated with the chemotherapeutic drug 1,3-bis(2-chloroethyl)-1-nitrosourea and five rats were untreated controls. All animals underwent DW-MRI immediately before, one day and three days after treatment. Values of the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) were calculated from the DW-MRI data and then used to estimate the number of cells in each voxel and also for whole tumor regions of interest. The data from the first two imaging time points were then used to estimate the proliferation rate of each tumor. The proliferation rates were used to predict the number of tumor cells at day three, and this was correlated with the corresponding experimental data. The voxel-by-voxel analysis yielded Pearson's correlation coefficients ranging from −0.06 to 0.65, whereas the region of interest analysis provided Pearson's and concordance correlation coefficients of 0.88 and 0.80, respectively. Additionally, the ratio of positive to negative proliferation values was used to separate the treated and control animals (p <0.05) at an earlier point than the mean ADC values. These results further illustrate how quantitative measurements of tumor state obtained non-invasively by imaging can be incorporated into mathematical models that predict tumor growth. (paper)

  15. Incorporating a Generic Model of Subcutaneous Insulin Absorption into the AIDA v4 Diabetes Simulator 3. Early Plasma Insulin Determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Eldon D.; Tarín, Cristina; Bondia, Jorge; Teufel, Edgar; Deutsch, Tibor

    2009-01-01

    Introduction AIDA is an interactive educational diabetes simulator that has been available without charge via the Internet for over 12 years. Recent articles have described the incorporation of a novel generic model of insulin absorption into AIDA as a way of enhancing its capabilities. The basic model components to be integrated have been overviewed, with the aim being to provide simulations of regimens utilizing insulin analogues, as well as insulin doses greater than 40 IU (the current upper limit within the latest release of AIDA [v4.3a]). Some preliminary calculated insulin absorption results have also recently been described. Methods This article presents the first simulated plasma insulin profiles from the integration of the generic subcutaneous insulin absorption model, and the currently implemented model in AIDA for insulin disposition. Insulin absorption has been described by the physiologically based model of Tarín and colleagues. A single compartment modeling approach has been used to specify how absorbed insulin is distributed in, and eliminated from, the human body. To enable a numerical solution of the absorption model, a spherical subcutaneous depot for the injected insulin dose has been assumed and spatially discretized into shell compartments with homogeneous concentrations, having as its center the injection site. The number of these compartments will depend on the dose and type of insulin. Insulin inflow arises as the sum of contributions to the different shells. For this report the first bench testing of plasma insulin determinations has been done. Results Simulated plasma insulin profiles are provided for currently available insulin preparations, including a rapidly acting insulin analogue (e.g., lispro/Humalog or aspart/Novolog), a short-acting (regular) insulin preparation (e.g., Actrapid), intermediate-acting insulins (both Semilente and neutral protamine Hagedorn types), and a very long-acting insulin analogue (e.g., glargine/Lantus), as

  16. Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawa, S. R.; Collatz, G. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Denning, A. S.; Wofsy, S. C.; Andrews, A. E.

    2007-01-01

    As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its

  17. Model-Based Evaluation of Higher Doses of Rifampin Using a Semimechanistic Model Incorporating Autoinduction and Saturation of Hepatic Extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirehwa, Maxwell T; Rustomjee, Roxana; Mthiyane, Thuli; Onyebujoh, Philip; Smith, Peter; McIlleron, Helen; Denti, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    Rifampin is a key sterilizing drug in the treatment of tuberculosis (TB). It induces its own metabolism, but neither the onset nor the extent of autoinduction has been adequately described. Currently, the World Health Organization recommends a rifampin dose of 8 to 12 mg/kg of body weight, which is believed to be suboptimal, and higher doses may potentially improve treatment outcomes. However, a nonlinear increase in exposure may be observed because of saturation of hepatic extraction and hence this should be taken into consideration when a dose increase is implemented. Intensive pharmacokinetic (PK) data from 61 HIV-TB-coinfected patients in South Africa were collected at four visits, on days 1, 8, 15, and 29, after initiation of treatment. Data were analyzed by population nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Rifampin PKs were best described by using a transit compartment absorption and a well-stirred liver model with saturation of hepatic extraction, including a first-pass effect. Autoinduction was characterized by using an exponential-maturation model: hepatic clearance almost doubled from the baseline to steady state, with a half-life of around 4.5 days. The model predicts that increases in the dose of rifampin result in more-than-linear drug exposure increases as measured by the 24-h area under the concentration-time curve. Simulations with doses of up to 35 mg/kg produced results closely in line with those of clinical trials. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  18. Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

    2016-01-01

    The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

  19. Novel endogenous N-acyl amides activate TRPV1-4 receptors, BV-2 microglia, and are regulated in brain in an acute model of inflammation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raboune, Siham; Stuart, Jordyn M.; Leishman, Emma; Takacs, Sara M.; Rhodes, Brandon; Basnet, Arjun; Jameyfield, Evan; McHugh, Douglas; Widlanski, Theodore; Bradshaw, Heather B.

    2014-01-01

    A family of endogenous lipids, structurally analogous to the endogenous cannabinoid, N-arachidonoyl ethanolamine (Anandamide), and called N-acyl amides have emerged as a family of biologically active compounds at TRP receptors. N-acyl amides are constructed from an acyl group and an amine via an amide bond. This same structure can be modified by changing either the fatty acid or the amide to form potentially hundreds of lipids. More than 70 N-acyl amides have been identified in nature. We have ongoing studies aimed at isolating and characterizing additional members of the family of N-acyl amides in both central and peripheral tissues in mammalian systems. Here, using a unique in-house library of over 70 N-acyl amides we tested the following three hypotheses: (1) Additional N-acyl amides will have activity at TRPV1-4, (2) Acute peripheral injury will drive changes in CNS levels of N-acyl amides, and (3) N-acyl amides will regulate calcium in CNS-derived microglia. Through these studies, we have identified 20 novel N-acyl amides that collectively activate (stimulating or inhibiting) TRPV1-4. Using lipid extraction and HPLC coupled to tandem mass spectrometry we showed that levels of at least 10 of these N-acyl amides that activate TRPVs are regulated in brain after intraplantar carrageenan injection. We then screened the BV2 microglial cell line for activity with this N-acyl amide library and found overlap with TRPV receptor activity as well as additional activators of calcium mobilization from these lipids. Together these data provide new insight into the family of N-acyl amides and their roles as signaling molecules at ion channels, in microglia, and in the brain in the context of inflammation. PMID:25136293

  20. CCN3 (NOV) is a negative regulator of CCN2 (CTGF) and a novel endogenous inhibitor of the fibrotic pathway in an in vitro model of renal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riser, Bruce L; Najmabadi, Feridoon; Perbal, Bernard; Peterson, Darryl R; Rambow, Jo Ann; Riser, Melisa L; Sukowski, Ernest; Yeger, Herman; Riser, Sarah C

    2009-05-01

    Fibrosis is a major cause of end-stage renal disease, and although initiation factors have been elucidated, uncertainty concerning the downstream pathways has hampered the development of anti-fibrotic therapies. CCN2 (CTGF) functions downstream of transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta, driving increased extracellular matrix (ECM) accumulation and fibrosis. We examined the possibility that CCN3 (NOV), another CCN family member with reported biological activities that differ from CCN2, might act as an endogenous negative regulator of ECM and fibrosis. We show that cultured rat mesangial cells express CCN3 mRNA and protein, and that TGF-beta treatment reduced CCN3 expression levels while increasing CCN2 and collagen type I activities. Conversely, either the addition of CCN3 or CCN3 overexpression produced a marked down-regulation of CCN2 followed by virtual blockade of both collagen type I transcription and its accumulation. This finding occurred in both growth-arrested and CCN3-transfected cells under normal growth conditions after TGF-beta treatment. These effects were not attributable to altered cellular proliferation as determined by cell cycle analysis, nor were they attributable to interference of Smad signaling as shown by analysis of phosphorylated Smad3 levels. In conclusion, both CCN2 and CCN3 appear to act in a yin/yang manner to regulate ECM metabolism. CCN3, acting downstream of TGF-beta to block CCN2 and the up-regulation of ECM, may therefore serve to naturally limit fibrosis in vivo and provide opportunities for novel, endogenous-based therapeutic treatments.