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Sample records for model incorporating endogenous

  1. A merge model with endogenous technological change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Bahn, O.

    2002-03-01

    A new version of the MERGE model, called MERGE-ETL, has been developed to consider endogenous technological change in the energy system. The basic formulation of MERGE-ETL as well as some first results are reported here. (author)

  2. Endogenizing technological progress: The MESEMET model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A.G. van Bergeijk (Peter); G.H.A. van Hagen; R.A. de Mooij (Ruud); J. van Sinderen (Jarig)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThis paper endogenizes technology and human capital formation in the MESEM model that was developed by van Sinderen (Economic Modelling, 1993, 13, 285-300). Tax allowances for private R&D expenditures and public expenditures on both education and R& D are effective instruments to stimula

  3. Adjustment of endogenous concentrations in pharmacokinetic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Alexander; Wolfsegger, Martin J

    2014-12-01

    Estimating pharmacokinetic parameters in the presence of an endogenous concentration is not straightforward as cross-reactivity in the analytical methodology prevents differentiation between endogenous and dose-related exogenous concentrations. This article proposes a novel intuitive modeling approach which adequately adjusts for the endogenous concentration. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out based on a two-compartment population pharmacokinetic (PK) model fitted to real data following intravenous administration. A constant and a proportional error model were assumed. The performance of the novel model and the method of straightforward subtraction of the observed baseline concentration from post-dose concentrations were compared in terms of terminal half-life, area under the curve from 0 to infinity, and mean residence time. Mean bias in PK parameters was up to 4.5 times better with the novel model assuming a constant error model and up to 6.5 times better assuming a proportional error model. The simulation study indicates that this novel modeling approach results in less biased and more accurate PK estimates than straightforward subtraction of the observed baseline concentration and overcomes the limitations of previously published approaches.

  4. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies.Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  5. Endogenous Fertility in Models of Growth Endogenous Fertility in Models of Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allan Drazen

    1993-03-01

    Full Text Available Endogenous Fertility in Models of Growth Most theories of economic growth ignore determinants of growth in population. The common assumption of constant population growth is strikingly inconsistent with the data, which reveal a logistic pattern of population growth, the acceleration often coinciding with industrialization. After surveying existing theories of endogenous population, we propose a model in which the family replaces the market in a "traditional" sector. Children are both the primary source of labor and the sole means of saving in this sector, with output divided behween generations via bargaining. Industrialization improves the oportunities of children outside the rural sector. It thus leads not only to higher outmigration, but also, by increasing children's bargaining power and hence their share of output, lowers the incentive to bear children. The model can thus explain observed changes in both overall population growth and in its sectorai composition.

  6. Government spending in a New Keynesian Endogenous Growth Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuehn, S.; Veen, van A.P. (Tom); Muysken, J.

    2009-01-01

    Standard New Keynesian models cannot generate the widely observed result that private consumption is crowded in by government spending. We use a New Keynesian endogenous growth model with endogenous labour supply to analyse this phenomenon. The presence of small direct productivity effects of govern

  7. Anxiety and Performance: An Endogenous Learning-by-doing Model

    OpenAIRE

    Michael T. Rauh; Giulio Seccia

    2005-01-01

    In this article, we show that a standard economic model, the endogenous learning-by-doing model, captures several major themes from the anxiety literature in psychology. In our model, anxiety is a fully endogenous construct that can be separated naturally into its cognitive and physiological components. As such, our results are directly comparable with hypotheses and evidence from psychology. We show that anxiety can serve a motivating function, which suggests potential applications in the pr...

  8. The Effect of Globalization in an Endogenous Growth Model with Heterogeneous Firms and Endogenous International Spillovers: Note

    OpenAIRE

    Katsufumi Fukuda

    2013-01-01

    This paper shows that globalization increases (decreases) the growth rate if and only if the beachhead cost for the domestic market is strictly higher (lower) than that for the foreign market in a endogenous growth model with firm heterogeneity, international trade, and endogenous international spillover under specified necessary and sufficient conditions for exporting firms being more productive than non-exporting firms.

  9. A Dynamic Model of Endogenous Mergers and Trade Liberalization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ray Chaudhuri, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses a dynamic dominant-firm model with an endogenous merger process to examine the effects of trade liberalization on industry structure. Domestic and cross-border mergers and demergers are allowed for. When firms are myopic and the dominant firm has a sufficiently high pre-merger capita

  10. Testing for a Threshold in Models with Endogenous Regressors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rothfelder, Mario; Boldea, Otilia

    2016-01-01

    Using 2SLS estimation, we propose two tests for a threshold in models with endogenous regressors: a sup LR test and a sup Wald test. Here, the 2SLS estimation is not conventional because it uses additional information about the first-stage being linear or not. Because of this additional information,

  11. Incorporating groundwater flow into the WEPP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Elliot; Erin Brooks; Tim Link; Sue Miller

    2010-01-01

    The water erosion prediction project (WEPP) model is a physically-based hydrology and erosion model. In recent years, the hydrology prediction within the model has been improved for forest watershed modeling by incorporating shallow lateral flow into watershed runoff prediction. This has greatly improved WEPP's hydrologic performance on small watersheds with...

  12. "A One-Sector Neoclassical Growth Model with Endogenous Retirement"

    OpenAIRE

    Matsuyama, Kiminori

    2007-01-01

    This paper extends Diamond's OG model by allowing the agents to make the retirement decision. Earning a higher wage income when young not only enables the agents to save more. It also induces more agents to retire early and gives an additional incentive to save more for retirement. This leads to a higher capitallabor ratio in the following period, and hence the next generation of agents earns a higher wage income when young. Due to this positive feedback mechanism, endogenous retirement magni...

  13. Endogenous opioid antagonism in physiological experimental pain models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werner, Mads U; Pereira, Manuel P; Andersen, Lars Peter H

    2015-01-01

    Opioid antagonists are pharmacological tools applied as an indirect measure to detect activation of the endogenous opioid system (EOS) in experimental pain models. The objective of this systematic review was to examine the effect of mu-opioid-receptor (MOR) antagonists in placebo-controlled, double......-five studies utilized 'inhibitory' test paradigms (ITP) and 38 studies utilized 'sensitizing' test paradigms (STP). The ITP-studies were characterized as conditioning modulation models (22 studies) and repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation models (rTMS; 3 studies), and, the STP-studies as secondary...

  14. A RCK Model with Endogenous Fertility and Exogenous Technological Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The technological change as an exogenous variable is introduced into the RCK model with endogenous fertility in this paper. It is proved that the model has at least a nonzero steady state and the nonzero steady state is unique when the parameters satisfies some conditions. By phrase protrait analysis, the unique nonzero steady state is saddle and the economy has a unique optimal growth path. The results obtained implies that the relationship between the technological change and population growth rate determinated by the economic structure and the parental ethies. For the economy in which the parents is selfish, promoting the technologlcal change rate decreases the fertility at the steady state. On the other hand, for the economy in which the parents is less selfish, the fertility increases as the technological change rate increases.

  15. Differential model of macroeconomic growth with endogenic cyclicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail I. Geraskin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to elaborate a mathematical model of economic growth taking into account the cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with the model parameters based on the Russian economy statistics. Methods economic and mathematical modeling system analysis regression factor analysis econometric time series analysis. Results the article states that under unstable economic growth in Russia forecasting of strategic prospects of the Russian economy is one of the topical directions of scientific studies. Furthermore construction of predictive models should be based on multiple factors taking into account such basic concepts as the neoKeynesian HarrodDomar model Ramsey ndash Cass ndash Koopmans model S. V. Dubovskiyrsquos concept as well as the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow. They served as the basis for developing a multifactor differential economic growth model which is a modification of the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow taking into account the laborsaving and capitalsaving forms of scientifictechnical progress and the Keynesian concept of investment. The model parameters are determined based on the dynamics of actual GDP employment fixed assets and investments in fixed assets for 19652016 in Russia on the basis of official statistics. The generalized model showed the presence of longwave fluctuations that are not detected during the individual periods modeling. The cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with a period of 54 years was found which corresponds to the parameters of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev. Basing on the model the macroeconomic growth forecast was generated which shows that after 2020 the increase of scientifictechnical progress will be negative. Scientific novelty a model is proposed of the scientifictechnical progress indicator showing the growth rate of the capital productivity ratio to the saving rate a differential model of macroeconomic growth is obtained which endogenously takes cyclicity into account

  16. Partitioning CO2 effluxes from an Atlantic pine forest soil between endogenous soil organic matter and recently incorporated 13C-enriched plant material.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Irene; Cabaneiro, Ana; González-Prieto, Serafín J

    2006-04-15

    Soil CO2 effluxes from recently added 13C-labeled phytomass versus endogenous soil organic matter (SOM) were studied in an acid soil from Atlantic pine forests (NW Spain). After several cultures to incorporate fresh 13C-enriched Lolium perenne to a Humic Cambisol with predominance of humus--Al over humus--Fe complexes, potential soil C mineralization was determined by laboratory aerobic incubation (84 days). Isotopic 13C analyses of SOM fractions were assessed to know in which organic compartments the 13C was preferentially incorporated. Although in the 13C-labeled soil the C mineralization coefficient totalized less than 3% of soil C, the 13C mineralization coefficient exceeded 14%, indicating a greater lability of the newly incorporated organic matter. Organic compounds coming from added phytomass showed a higher lability and contributed considerably to the total soil CO2 effluxes (52% of total soil CO2 evolved during the first decomposition stages and 27% at the end), even though added-C comprised less than 4% of total soil C. Good determination coefficients, when values of CO2--C released were fitted to a first-order double exponential kinetic model, support the existence of two C pools of different lability. Kinetic parameters obtained with this model indicated that phytomass addition augmented the biodegradability of the labile pool (instantaneous mineralization rate k increased from 0.07 d(-1) to 0.12 d(-1)) but diminished that of the recalcitrant pool (instantaneous mineralization rate h decreased from 2.7 x 10(-4) d(-1) to 1.6 x 10(-4) d(-1)). Consequently, the differentiation between both SOM pools increased, showing the importance of SOM quality on CO2 emissions from this kind of soil to the atmosphere.

  17. Incorporating immigrant flows into microsimulation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duleep, Harriet Orcutt; Dowhan, Daniel J

    2008-01-01

    Building on the research on immigrant earnings reviewed in the first article of this series, "Research on Immigrant Earnings," the preceding article, "Adding Immigrants to Microsimulation Models," linked research results to various issues essential for incorporating immigrant earnings into microsimulation models. The discussions of that article were in terms of a closed system. That is, it examined a system in which immigrant earnings and emigration are forecast for a given population represented in the base sample in the microsimulation model. This article, the last in the series, addresses immigrant earnings projections for open systems--microsimulation models that include projections of future immigration. The article suggests a simple method to project future immigrants and their earnings. Including the future flow of immigrants in microsimulation models can dramatically affect the projected Social Security benefits of some groups.

  18. Incorporating neurophysiological concepts in mathematical thermoregulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingma, Boris R. M.; Vosselman, M. J.; Frijns, A. J. H.; van Steenhoven, A. A.; van Marken Lichtenbelt, W. D.

    2014-01-01

    Skin blood flow (SBF) is a key player in human thermoregulation during mild thermal challenges. Various numerical models of SBF regulation exist. However, none explicitly incorporates the neurophysiology of thermal reception. This study tested a new SBF model that is in line with experimental data on thermal reception and the neurophysiological pathways involved in thermoregulatory SBF control. Additionally, a numerical thermoregulation model was used as a platform to test the function of the neurophysiological SBF model for skin temperature simulation. The prediction-error of the SBF-model was quantified by root-mean-squared-residual (RMSR) between simulations and experimental measurement data. Measurement data consisted of SBF (abdomen, forearm, hand), core and skin temperature recordings of young males during three transient thermal challenges (1 development and 2 validation). Additionally, ThermoSEM, a thermoregulation model, was used to simulate body temperatures using the new neurophysiological SBF-model. The RMSR between simulated and measured mean skin temperature was used to validate the model. The neurophysiological model predicted SBF with an accuracy of RMSR temperature. This study shows that (1) thermal reception and neurophysiological pathways involved in thermoregulatory SBF control can be captured in a mathematical model, and (2) human thermoregulation models can be equipped with SBF control functions that are based on neurophysiology without loss of performance. The neurophysiological approach in modelling thermoregulation is favourable over engineering approaches because it is more in line with the underlying physiology.

  19. Incorporation of RAM techniques into simulation modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, S.C. Jr.; Haire, M.J.; Schryver, J.C.

    1995-07-01

    This work concludes that reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) analytical techniques can be incorporated into computer network simulation modeling to yield an important new analytical tool. This paper describes the incorporation of failure and repair information into network simulation to build a stochastic computer model represents the RAM Performance of two vehicles being developed for the US Army: The Advanced Field Artillery System (AFAS) and the Future Armored Resupply Vehicle (FARV). The AFAS is the US Army`s next generation self-propelled cannon artillery system. The FARV is a resupply vehicle for the AFAS. Both vehicles utilize automation technologies to improve the operational performance of the vehicles and reduce manpower. The network simulation model used in this work is task based. The model programmed in this application requirements a typical battle mission and the failures and repairs that occur during that battle. Each task that the FARV performs--upload, travel to the AFAS, refuel, perform tactical/survivability moves, return to logistic resupply, etc.--is modeled. Such a model reproduces a model reproduces operational phenomena (e.g., failures and repairs) that are likely to occur in actual performance. Simulation tasks are modeled as discrete chronological steps; after the completion of each task decisions are programmed that determine the next path to be followed. The result is a complex logic diagram or network. The network simulation model is developed within a hierarchy of vehicle systems, subsystems, and equipment and includes failure management subnetworks. RAM information and other performance measures are collected which have impact on design requirements. Design changes are evaluated through ``what if`` questions, sensitivity studies, and battle scenario changes.

  20. Incorporating infiltration modelling in urban flood management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Jumadar

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Increasing frequency and intensity of flood events in urban areas can be linked to increase in impervious area due to urbanization, exacerbated by climate change. The established approach of conveying storm water by conventional drainage systems has contributed to magnification of runoff volume and peak flows beyond those of undeveloped catchments. Furthermore, the continuous upgrading of such conventional systems is costly and unsustainable in the long term. Sustainable drainage systems aim at addressing the adverse effects associated with conventional systems, by mimicking the natural drainage processes, encouraging infiltration and storage of storm water. In this study we model one of the key components of SuDS, the infiltration basins, in order to assert the benefits of the approach. Infiltration modelling was incorporated in the detention storage unit within the one-dimensional urban storm water management model, EPA-SWMM 5.0. By introduction of infiltration modelling in the storage, the flow attenuation performance of the unit was considerably improved. The study also examines the catchment scale impact of both source and regional control storage/infiltration systems. Based on the findings of two case study areas modelled with the proposed options, it was observed that source control systems have a greater and much more natural impact at a catchment level, with respect to flow attenuation, compared to regional control systems of which capacity is equivalent to the sum of source control capacity at the catchment.

  1. Incorporation of salinity in Water Availability Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurbs, Ralph A.; Lee, Chihun

    2011-10-01

    SummaryNatural salt pollution from geologic formations in the upper watersheds of several large river basins in the Southwestern United States severely constrains the use of otherwise available major water supply sources. The Water Rights Analysis Package modeling system has been routinely applied in Texas since the late 1990s in regional and statewide planning studies and administration of the state's water rights permit system, but without consideration of water quality. The modeling system was recently expanded to incorporate salinity considerations in assessments of river/reservoir system capabilities for supplying water for environmental, municipal, agricultural, and industrial needs. Salinity loads and concentrations are tracked through systems of river reaches and reservoirs to develop concentration frequency statistics that augment flow frequency and water supply reliability metrics at pertinent locations for alternative water management strategies. Flexible generalized capabilities are developed for using limited observed salinity data to model highly variable concentrations imposed upon complex river regulation infrastructure and institutional water allocation/management practices.

  2. Analysis of Transition of Pension System in an Endogenous Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    叶栩青

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the possibility of pareto improving social security reforms within a framework of endogenous growth. Belan et al. proposed a transition from a pay-as-you-go(PAYG) pension system to a system of saving-subsidization. We follow this approach and prove that a pareto improving conversion from the PAYG system to a fully funded system is possible and discuss the problem of implementing the transition to the fully funded system.

  3. MERGE-ETL: An Optimisation Equilibrium Model with Two Different Endogeneous Technological Learning Formulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, O.; Kypreos, S.

    2002-07-01

    In MERGE-ETL, endogenous technological progress is applied to eight energy technologies: six power plants (integrated coal gasification with combined cycle, gas turbine with combined cycle, gas fuel cell, new nuclear designs, wind turbine and solar photovoltaic) and two plants producing hydrogen (from biomass and solar photovoltaic). Furthermore, compared to the original MERGE model, we have introduced two new power plants (using coal and gas) with CO{sub 2} capture and disposal into depleted oil and gas reservoirs. The difficulty with incorporating endogenous technological progress in MERGE comes from the resulting formulation of the MERGE-ETL model. Indeed, technological learning is related to increasing returns to adoption, and the mathematical formulation of MERGE-ETL corresponds then to a (non-linear and) non-convex optimisation problem. To solve MERGE-ETL, we have devised a three-step heuristic approach, where we search for the global optimum in an iterative way. We use in particular for this a linearisation, following mixed integer programming techniques, of the bottom-up part of MERGE-ETL. To study the impacts of modelling endogenous technological change in MERGE, we have considered several scenarios related to technological learning and carbon control. The latter corresponds to a 'soft landing' of world energy related CO{sub 2} emissions to a level of 10 Gt C by 2050, and takes into account the recent (2001) Marrakech Agreements for CO{sub 2} emission limits by 2010. Notice that our baseline scenario (without emission control and endogenous technological change) is consistent, in particular in terms of population and CO{sub 2} emissions, with the IPCC B2 scenario. Our numerical application with MERGE-ETL shows that technological learning yields an increase of primary energy use and of electricity generation. Indeed, energy production, and in particular electricity generation, become less expensive over-time. Energy (electricity, but also non

  4. Incorporating direct marketing activity into latent attrition models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweidel, David A.; Knox, George

    2013-01-01

    When defection is unobserved, latent attrition models provide useful insights about customer behavior and accurate forecasts of customer value. Yet extant models ignore direct marketing efforts. Response models incorporate the effects of direct marketing, but because they ignore latent attrition,

  5. Endogenous learning in world post-Kyoto scenarios: application of the POLES model under adaptive expectations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kouvaritakis, N.; Soria, A.; Isoard, S. [Commission of the European Communities, Sevilla (Spain). Inst. for Prospective Technological Studies; Thonet, C. [European Commission - Unit DG 12 - Research, Brussels (Belgium)

    2000-07-01

    This paper describes the endogenous technical change module that has been incorporated in POLES and the main quantitative results of the new version of the model and corresponding exercises. Section 2 presents the methodology that has been used in order to assess the returns to R and D for the main power generation technologies identified in the model. R and D budget allocation is then analysed for the base case in Section 3, which also illustrates the differences in the behaviour, respectively of the least and most risk-averse agents. Section 4, analyses in detail the changes in budget allocation that are induced by the introduction of CO{sub 2} emission constraints to 2030, as well as their impacts on marginal and total abatement costs for the main world regions. As a last step, the consequences of changes in public R and D are examined in Section 5. This exercise shows that the performance and diffusion of the technologies benefiting from the shift in public R and D are largely improved, in spite of noticeable 'crowding out' effects - of private research by public research - for these technologies. (orig.)

  6. Rizatriptan benzoate influences the endogenous pain modulatory system in a rat model of migraine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gang Yao; Yuhong Man; Xiangdan Luo; Tingmin Yu; Lin Ji

    2012-01-01

    The present study utilized a nitroglycerin-induced rat model of migraine to detect the effects of rizatriptan benzoate on proenkephalin and substance P gene expression in the midbrain using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction and investigate whether rizatriptan benzoate can regulate the endogenous pain modulatory system. The results showed that rizatriptan benzoate significantly reduced expression of the mRNAs for proenkephalin and substance P. Rizatriptan benzoate may inhibit the analgesic effect of the endogenous pain modulatory system.

  7. Rizatriptan benzoate influences the endogenous pain modulatory system in a rat model of migraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Gang; Man, Yuhong; Luo, Xiangdan; Yu, Tingmin; Ji, Lin

    2012-01-15

    The present study utilized a nitroglycerin-induced rat model of migraine to detect the effects of rizatriptan benzoate on proenkephalin and substance P gene expression in the midbrain using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction and investigate whether rizatriptan benzoate can regulate the endogenous pain modulatory system. The results showed that rizatriptan benzoate significantly reduced expression of the mRNAs for proenkephalin and substance P. Rizatriptan benzoate may inhibit the analgesic effect of the endogenous pain modulatory system.

  8. Multiplicative earthquake likelihood models incorporating strain rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, D. A.; Christophersen, A.; Gerstenberger, M. C.

    2017-01-01

    SUMMARYWe examine the potential for strain-rate variables to improve long-term earthquake likelihood models. We derive a set of multiplicative hybrid earthquake likelihood models in which cell rates in a spatially uniform baseline model are scaled using combinations of covariates derived from earthquake catalogue data, fault data, and strain-rates for the New Zealand region. Three components of the strain rate estimated from GPS data over the period 1991-2011 are considered: the shear, rotational and dilatational strain rates. The hybrid model parameters are optimised for earthquakes of M 5 and greater over the period 1987-2006 and tested on earthquakes from the period 2012-2015, which is independent of the strain rate estimates. The shear strain rate is overall the most informative individual covariate, as indicated by Molchan error diagrams as well as multiplicative modelling. Most models including strain rates are significantly more informative than the best models excluding strain rates in both the fitting and testing period. A hybrid that combines the shear and dilatational strain rates with a smoothed seismicity covariate is the most informative model in the fitting period, and a simpler model without the dilatational strain rate is the most informative in the testing period. These results have implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and can be used to improve the background model component of medium-term and short-term earthquake forecasting models.

  9. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, Christopher M; Bishop, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market

  10. Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-20

    resiliency, computational modeling, computational social science /systems, modeling and simulation 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF...system. The relationships between random variables are given as conditional probability rules. BKBs are represented as a directed graph with...and BKB inferencing methods can be found in Santos et al [20]. 4.1. BKB Definition and Inferencing A BKB is a directed , bipartite graph consisting

  11. Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, Jennifer C; Beissinger, Steven R; Bragg, Jason G; Coates, David J; Oostermeijer, J Gerard B; Sunnucks, Paul; Schumaker, Nathan H; Trotter, Meredith V; Young, Andrew G

    2015-06-01

    We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.

  12. Incorporating 3-dimensional models in online articles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cevidanes, Lucia H. S.; Ruellasa, Antonio C. O.; Jomier, Julien; Nguyen, Tung; Pieper, Steve; Budin, Francois; Styner, Martin; Paniagua, Beatriz

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The aims of this article were to introduce the capability to view and interact with 3-dimensional (3D) surface models in online publications, and to describe how to prepare surface models for such online 3D visualizations. Methods Three-dimensional image analysis methods include image acquisition, construction of surface models, registration in a common coordinate system, visualization of overlays, and quantification of changes. Cone-beam computed tomography scans were acquired as volumetric images that can be visualized as 3D projected images or used to construct polygonal meshes or surfaces of specific anatomic structures of interest. The anatomic structures of interest in the scans can be labeled with color (3D volumetric label maps), and then the scans are registered in a common coordinate system using a target region as the reference. The registered 3D volumetric label maps can be saved in .obj, .ply, .stl, or .vtk file formats and used for overlays, quantification of differences in each of the 3 planes of space, or color-coded graphic displays of 3D surface distances. Results All registered 3D surface models in this study were saved in .vtk file format and loaded in the Elsevier 3D viewer. In this study, we describe possible ways to visualize the surface models constructed from cone-beam computed tomography images using 2D and 3D figures. The 3D surface models are available in the article’s online version for viewing and downloading using the reader’s software of choice. These 3D graphic displays are represented in the print version as 2D snapshots. Overlays and color-coded distance maps can be displayed using the reader’s software of choice, allowing graphic assessment of the location and direction of changes or morphologic differences relative to the structure of reference. The interpretation of 3D overlays and quantitative color-coded maps requires basic knowledge of 3D image analysis. Conclusions When submitting manuscripts, authors can

  13. Comparative study of osteogenic potential of a composite scaffold incorporating either endogenous bone morphogenetic protein-2 or exogenous phytomolecule icaritin: an in vitro efficacy study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S-H; Wang, X-L; Xie, X-H; Zheng, L-Z; Yao, D; Wang, D-P; Leng, Y; Zhang, G; Qin, L

    2012-08-01

    A local delivery system with sustained and efficient release of therapeutic agents from an appropriate carrier is desirable for orthopedic applications. Novel composite scaffolds made of poly (lactic-co-glycolic acid) with tricalcium phosphate (PLGA/TCP) were fabricated by an advanced low-temperature rapid prototyping technique, which incorporated either endogenous bone morphogenetic protein-2 (BMP-2) (PLGA/TCP/BMP-2) or phytomolecule icaritin (ICT) (PLGA/TCP/ICT) at low, middle and high doses. PLGA/TCP served as control. In vitro degradation, osteogenesis and release tests showed statistical differences among PLGA/TCP/ICT, PLGA/TCP and PLGA/TCP/BMP-2 groups, where PLGA/TCP/ICT had the desired slow release of bioactive icaritin in a dose-dependent manner, whereas there was almost no BMP-2 release from the PLGA/TCP/BMP-2 scaffolds. PLGA/TCP/ICT significantly increased more ALP activity, upregulated mRNA expression of osteogenic genes and enhanced calcium deposition and mineralization in rabbit bone marrow stem cells cultured on scaffolds compared with the other two groups. These results indicate the desired degradation rate, osteogenic capability and release property in PLGA/TCP/ICT composite scaffold, as icaritin preserved its bioactivity and structure after incorporation, while PLGA/TCP/BMP-2 did not show an initially expected osteogenic potential, owing to loss of the original bioactivity of BMP-2 during its incorporation and fabrication procedure. The results suggest that PLGA/TCP composite scaffolds incorporating osteogenic ICT might be a promising approach for bone tissue bioengineering and regeneration.

  14. Technical change incorporated in the profit function: an empirical assessment of an exogenous and an endogenous approach.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gardebroek, C.; Abler, D.G.; Thijssen, G.J.

    1998-01-01

    De invloed van technologische vooruitgang op de winstfunctie van landbouwbedrijven heeft men getracht in een econometisch model te gieten, met gebruikmaking van gegevens uit de Nederlandse landbouwsector

  15. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  16. Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse-Andersen, Peter Kjær

    2017-01-01

    R&D-based growth models are tested using US data for the period 1953-2014. A general growth model is developed which nests the model varieties of interest. The model implies a cointegrating relationship between multifactor productivity, research intensity, and employment. This relationship is est......-run growth rate of GDP per worker converges to between zero and 1.1 pct....

  17. Incorporating POS Tagging into Language Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Heeman, P A; Heeman, Peter A.; Allen, James F.

    1997-01-01

    Language models for speech recognition tend to concentrate solely on recognizing the words that were spoken. In this paper, we redefine the speech recognition problem so that its goal is to find both the best sequence of words and their syntactic role (part-of-speech) in the utterance. This is a necessary first step towards tightening the interaction between speech recognition and natural language understanding.

  18. An endogenous growth model with embodied energy-saving technical change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Zon, A; Yetkiner, IH

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we extend the Romer [Journal of Political Economy 98 (Part 2) (1990) S271] model in two ways. First we include energy consumption of intermediates. Second, intermediates become heterogeneous due to endogenous energy-saving technical change. We show that the resulting model can still g

  19. Incorporating direct marketing activity into latent attrition models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweidel, David A.; Knox, George

    2013-01-01

    When defection is unobserved, latent attrition models provide useful insights about customer behavior and accurate forecasts of customer value. Yet extant models ignore direct marketing efforts. Response models incorporate the effects of direct marketing, but because they ignore latent attrition, th

  20. Gene expression patterns in the hippocampus and amygdala of endogenous depression and chronic stress models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrus, B M; Blizinsky, K; Vedell, P T; Dennis, K; Shukla, P K; Schaffer, D J; Radulovic, J; Churchill, G A; Redei, E E

    2012-01-01

    The etiology of depression is still poorly understood, but two major causative hypotheses have been put forth: the monoamine deficiency and the stress hypotheses of depression. We evaluate these hypotheses using animal models of endogenous depression and chronic stress. The endogenously depressed rat and its control strain were developed by bidirectional selective breeding from the Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) rat, an accepted model of major depressive disorder (MDD). The WKY More Immobile (WMI) substrain shows high immobility/despair-like behavior in the forced swim test (FST), while the control substrain, WKY Less Immobile (WLI), shows no depressive behavior in the FST. Chronic stress responses were investigated by using Brown Norway, Fischer 344, Lewis and WKY, genetically and behaviorally distinct strains of rats. Animals were either not stressed (NS) or exposed to chronic restraint stress (CRS). Genome-wide microarray analyses identified differentially expressed genes in hippocampi and amygdalae of the endogenous depression and the chronic stress models. No significant difference was observed in the expression of monoaminergic transmission-related genes in either model. Furthermore, very few genes showed overlapping changes in the WMI vs WLI and CRS vs NS comparisons, strongly suggesting divergence between endogenous depressive behavior- and chronic stress-related molecular mechanisms. Taken together, these results posit that although chronic stress may induce depressive behavior, its molecular underpinnings differ from those of endogenous depression in animals and possibly in humans, suggesting the need for different treatments. The identification of novel endogenous depression-related and chronic stress response genes suggests that unexplored molecular mechanisms could be targeted for the development of novel therapeutic agents.

  1. Externalities in a life cycle model with endogenous survival☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Michael; Wrzaczek, Stefan; Prskawetz, Alexia; Feichtinger, Gustav

    2011-01-01

    We study socially vs individually optimal life cycle allocations of consumption and health, when individual health care curbs own mortality but also has a spillover effect on other persons’ survival. Such spillovers arise, for instance, when health care activity at aggregate level triggers improvements in treatment through learning-by-doing (positive externality) or a deterioration in the quality of care through congestion (negative externality). We combine an age-structured optimal control model at population level with a conventional life cycle model to derive the social and private value of life. We then examine how individual incentives deviate from social incentives and how they can be aligned by way of a transfer scheme. The age-patterns of socially and individually optimal health expenditures and the transfer rate are derived. Numerical analysis illustrates the working of our model.

  2. Initial CGE Model Results Summary Exogenous and Endogenous Variables Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-07

    The following discussion presents initial results of tests of the most recent version of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The intent of this is to test and assess the model’s behavioral properties. The test evaluated whether the predicted impacts are reasonable from a qualitative perspective. This issue is whether the predicted change, be it an increase or decrease in other model variables, is consistent with prior economic intuition and expectations about the predicted change. One of the purposes of this effort is to determine whether model changes are needed in order to improve its behavior qualitatively and quantitatively.

  3. Multiple Discrete Endogenous Variables in Weakly-Separable Triangular Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Jae Jun

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available We consider a model in which an outcome depends on two discrete treatment variables, where one treatment is given before the other. We formulate a three-equation triangular system with weak separability conditions. Without assuming assignment is random, we establish the identification of an average structural function using two-step matching. We also consider decomposing the effect of the first treatment into direct and indirect effects, which are shown to be identified by the proposed methodology. We allow for both of the treatment variables to be non-binary and do not appeal to an identification-at-infinity argument.

  4. Productivity and Unemployment in a Two-country Model with Endogenous Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schaik, A.B.T.M.; de Groot, H.L.F.

    1997-01-01

    Relative to the United States, most European countries have high rates of unemployment and low levels of productivity in manufacturing. To relate these issues, we develop a leader-follower model with endogenous growth and dual labour markets, stressing the role of high-tech and high-wage sectors in

  5. Optimization and characterization of the endogenous production of protoporphyrin IX in a yeast model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joniová, Jaroslava; Gerelli, Emmanuel; Zellweger, Matthieu; Wagnières, Georges

    2016-12-01

    The availability of reproducible, convenient, and inexpensive model organisms able to generate predictable levels of endogenous porphyrins, including protoporphyrin IX (PpIX), is essential in photomedicine research. Saccharomyces cerevisiae produces endogenous PpIX and was used as a model organism for this study with the aim to maximize endogenous PpIX fluorescence intensity. It was found that PpIX fluorescence was significantly enhanced by administration of 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA) and 2,2‧-bipyridyl. Fluorescence intensity and spectroscopy of PpIX produced endogenously were measured in diluted yeast solutions under various conditions. The optimal protocol was: 5 μM ALA and 1 mM 2,2‧-bipyridyl administered synchronously at 32°C. After 3 h, PpIX in yeast demonstrated similar steady-state and time-resolved spectroscopy as that of PpIX in DMSO. Moreover, under hypoxic conditions, the reciprocal lifetime of PpIX delayed fluorescence measured in real time was correlated to the partial pressure of oxygen (pO2) measured concomitantly with a commercially available pO2 probe. These data show that yeast can, in optimal conditions, reproducibly generate PpIX. This is of interest in various fields such as photodiagnosis, photodynamic therapy, and photobiomodulation. Use of this model organism focuses on essential mechanisms, without the complexity of a multicellular organism.

  6. Empirical Evidence of Fiscal Policy Impact on Endogenous Models of Economic Growth - the Case of Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olta Milova

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available According to Mankiw (2000, fiscal policy in major macroeconomic models adversely affects the behavior of private agents as consumers and firms and they affect economic growth through investment and savings decisions. Increasing government spending will increase the aggregate demand for goods and services and money demand in the money market leading to an increase of interest rates while markets tend towards equilibrium. The increased interest rates affect negatively the level of private investment. To assess the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth generally are used the endogenous growth models, which include technological progress as an integrated part of this model. These models were called endogenous because they were taking into account long-term economic growth and were using endogenous mechanisms to explain its main source which is the technological progress. Endogenous growth models developed by Barro (1990, Mendosa, Milesi-Ferreti and Asea (1997 or even by other economists, predict that the fiscal policy can affect the level of product and the long run economic growth. This conclusion is analysed in the theory of Barro (1990, which extends the model by including the fiscal policy. The Barro’s model is the model used in this paper to analyse the effect of the fiscal policy on economic growth in the case of Albania. The empirical work shows that all the variables, except inflation which according to theoretical expectations should have a negative effect, affect positively the economic growth. This positive relation between these variables can be explained by investments in infrastructure and other priority sectors that the government has done during all this period.

  7. Protective Role of Endogenous Gangliosides for Lysosomal Pathology in a Cellular Model of Synucleinopathies

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Jianshe; Fujita, Masayo; Nakai, Masaaki; Waragai, Masaaki; Sekigawa, Akio; Sugama, Shuei; Takenouchi, Takato; Masliah, Eliezer; Hashimoto,Makoto

    2009-01-01

    Gangliosides may be involved in the pathogenesis of Parkinson’s disease and related disorders, although the precise mechanisms governing this involvement remain unknown. In this study, we determined whether changes in endogenous ganglioside levels affect lysosomal pathology in a cellular model of synucleinopathy. For this purpose, dementia with Lewy body-linked P123H β-synuclein (β-syn) neuroblastoma cells transfected with α-synuclein were used as a model system because these cells were chara...

  8. Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in a Portfolio Model with Endogenous Asset Supply

    OpenAIRE

    Schüder, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops an open economy portfolio balance model with endogenous asset supply. Domestic producers choose an optimal capital structure and finance capital goods through credit, bonds and equity assets. Private households hold a portfolio of domestic and foreign assets, shift balances depending on risk-return considerations, and maximise real consumption in accordance with the law of one price. Within this general equilibrium model, it will be shown that central bank interventions ma...

  9. Non-renewable but inexhaustible: Resources in an endogenous growth model

    OpenAIRE

    Stürmer, Martin; Schwerhoff, Gregor

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes an endogenous growth model with an essential non-renewable resource, where economic growth enables firms to invest in innovation in the extraction technology and to allocate more capital to resource extraction. Innovation in the extraction technology offsets the deterioration of ore qualities and keeps the production costs of the non-renewable resource constant. Aggregate output as well as production and use of the non-renewable resource increase exponentially. Our model e...

  10. Population aging and endogenous economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettner, Klaus

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

  11. Incorporating RTI in a Hybrid Model of Reading Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Mercedes; Wagner, Richard K.; Schatschneider, Christopher; Quinn, Jamie M.; Lopez, Danielle; Petscher, Yaacov

    2014-01-01

    The present study seeks to evaluate a hybrid model of identification that incorporates response to instruction and intervention (RTI) as one of the key symptoms of reading disability. The 1-year stability of alternative operational definitions of reading disability was examined in a large-scale sample of students who were followed longitudinally…

  12. CD14 mediated endogenous TNF-alpha release in HL60 AML cells: a potential model for CD14 mediated endogenous cytokine release in the treatment of AML.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treon, S P; Anand, B; Ulevitch, R; Broitman, S A

    1994-01-01

    In previous studies, HL60 AML cells treated with tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF), interferon-gamma (IFN), and lipopolysaccharides (LPS) displayed decreased growth and viability, enhanced monocytic pathway differentiation and endogenous TNF release. Endogenous TNF release by LPS/TNF/IFN treated HL60 cells was postulated to play a role with the above findings. In these studies, HL60 cells expressed CD14 when treated with TNF, IFN, and LPS. CD14 mediates TNF release in monocytes/macrophages in response to binding of LPS with LPS binding protein (LBP). CD14 was not expressed in either untreated or LPS only treated HL60 cells. CD14 expression was present and greater with HL60 cells cultured with LPS/TNF/IFN vs TNF/IFN (47.47% vs 9.07% positive, respectively) suggesting synergism for LPS in CD14 induction. CD14 expression was associated with endogenous TNF release, and with significantly higher levels by HL60 cells treated with LPS/TNF/IFN vs TNF/IFN (p < 0.001). Addition of anti-CD14 antibody significantly reduced release of TNF in TNF/IFN (p < 0.001) and LPS/TNF/IFN (p = 0.0013) treated cells. KG1 and U937 AML cells treated with LPS, TNF, and IFN did not express CD14, nor release TNF. A model for inducing release of endogenous growth inhibitory cytokines by CD14 bearing AML cells is proposed as an approach to AML therapy.

  13. "Violent Intent Modeling: Incorporating Cultural Knowledge into the Analytical Process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Nibbs, Faith G.

    2007-08-24

    While culture has a significant effect on the appropriate interpretation of textual data, the incorporation of cultural considerations into data transformations has not been systematic. Recognizing that the successful prevention of terrorist activities could hinge on the knowledge of the subcultures, Anthropologist and DHS intern Faith Nibbs has been addressing the need to incorporate cultural knowledge into the analytical process. In this Brown Bag she will present how cultural ideology is being used to understand how the rhetoric of group leaders influences the likelihood of their constituents to engage in violent or radicalized behavior, and how violent intent modeling can benefit from understanding that process.

  14. Evaluating the performance of simple estimators for probit models with two dummy endogenous regressors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Nielsen, Jacob Arendt

    2013-01-01

    This study considers the small sample performance of approximate but simple two-stage estimators for probit models with two endogenous binary covariates. Monte Carlo simulations showthat all the considered estimators, including the simulated maximum-likelihood (SML) estimation, of the trivariate...... probit model are biased in very small samples (N = 100). With moderately small samples (N = 500), some of the approximations perform as well as the SML estimator when the degree of endogeneity is not very large. Some of the approximations seem robust with higher correlations and are also promising...... for testing the exogeneity of binary covariates. The methods are used to estimate the impact of employment-based health insurance and health care (HC) on HC use, where the approximations seem to work at least as well as the SML and in some cases better....

  15. Rizatriptan benzoate influences the endogenous pain modulatory system in a rat model of migraine☆

    OpenAIRE

    Yao,Gang; Man, Yuhong; Luo, Xiangdan; Yu, Tingmin; Ji, Lin

    2012-01-01

    The present study utilized a nitroglycerin-induced rat model of migraine to detect the effects of rizatriptan benzoate on proenkephalin and substance P gene expression in the midbrain using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction and investigate whether rizatriptan benzoate can regulate the endogenous pain modulatory system. The results showed that rizatriptan benzoate significantly reduced expression of the mRNAs for proenkephalin and substance P. Rizatriptan benzoate may inhibit th...

  16. From Solow Model to endogenous economic growth – Romania’s reinsertion into civilization?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinu MARIN

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the determinants of growth in GDP per capita in industrialized countries and the lessons for the Romanian economy. How can Romanian economy grow faster? The neoclassical model show that the important determinants of growth are technical progress, increased labor supply and capital accumulation. The endogenous growth theory considers that the inventions of new technology, investing in human capital are the principal factors which fueled long run growth. How can the Romanian economy obtain a continued growth process?

  17. Incorporating RTI in a Hybrid Model of Reading Disability

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The present study seeks to evaluate a hybrid model of identification that incorporates response-to-intervention (RTI) as a one of the key symptoms of reading disability. The one-year stability of alternative operational definitions of reading disability was examined in a large scale sample of students who were followed longitudinally from first to second grade. The results confirmed previous findings of limited stability for single-criterion based operational definitions of reading disability...

  18. Incorporating the Hayflick Limit into a model of Telomere Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cyrenne, Benoit M

    2013-01-01

    A model of telomere dynamics is proposed and examined. Our model, which extends a previously introduced two-compartment model that incorporates stem cells as progenitors of new cells, imposes the Hayflick Limit, the maximum number of cell divisions that are possible. This new model leads to cell populations for which the average telomere length is not necessarily a monotonically decreasing function of time, in contrast to previously published models. We provide a phase diagram indicating where such results would be expected. In addition, qualitatively different results are obtained for the evolution of the total cell population. Last, in comparison to available leukocyte baboon data, this new model is shown to provide a better fit to biological data.

  19. Incorporating Linguistic Structure into Maximum Entropy Language Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG GaoLin(方高林); GAO Wen(高文); WANG ZhaoQi(王兆其)

    2003-01-01

    In statistical language models, how to integrate diverse linguistic knowledge in a general framework for long-distance dependencies is a challenging issue. In this paper, an improved language model incorporating linguistic structure into maximum entropy framework is presented.The proposed model combines trigram with the structure knowledge of base phrase in which trigram is used to capture the local relation between words, while the structure knowledge of base phrase is considered to represent the long-distance relations between syntactical structures. The knowledge of syntax, semantics and vocabulary is integrated into the maximum entropy framework.Experimental results show that the proposed model improves by 24% for language model perplexity and increases about 3% for sign language recognition rate compared with the trigram model.

  20. Two-stage residual inclusion estimation: addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terza, Joseph V; Basu, Anirban; Rathouz, Paul J

    2008-05-01

    The paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research-two-stage predictor substitution (2SPS) and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI). 2SPS is the rote extension (to nonlinear models) of the popular linear two-stage least squares estimator. The 2SRI estimator is similar except that in the second-stage regression, the endogenous variables are not replaced by first-stage predictors. Instead, first-stage residuals are included as additional regressors. In a generic parametric framework, we show that 2SRI is consistent and 2SPS is not. Results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2SPS and favor 2SRI. Our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2SPS in the recent literature. This study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work.

  1. The problem of population and growth: a review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, I; Lui, F

    1997-01-01

    This review traces the evolution of literature on population and economic growth through the main paradigms suggested to explain the observed covariation of per capita income and population levels (or their rates of growth) over time and space, and determine which public policies will improve the human condition. As the main paradigms evolved, key variables were progressively treated as endogenous (instead of exogenous) to the growth process. After the introduction, section 2 looks at the "classical model" of Malthusian population theory and its refinements. Section 3 identifies empirical data that bears on the secular and cross-sectional association between levels of rates of growth of population and per capita income. The inconsistency of these data with the classical model helps explain declining interest in this model over time and increased interest in a more systematic type of population and growth theory. The beginning of this new interest is traced in section 4 with a look at the "neo-classical growth model" and the reformulated theory of population, which was based on Becker's work on fertility behavior. The first line of inquiry branching from these theoretical works (section 5) treats population as an endogenous variable in static and dynamic settings. The second line of inquiry (section 6) analyzes population and growth within a unified model of growth and development. In section 7, recent studies of key policy issues (population control policies, mandatory social security schemes) are surveyed. The concluding section notes that contemporary research must face the challenge of providing additional insights into longevity as an aspect of economic growth and development and of developing a model of endogenous population and economic growth based on heterogeneous agents.

  2. Methods improvements incorporated into the SAPHIRE ASP models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)] [and others

    1995-04-01

    The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methods, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3) enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements.

  3. A novel fluence map optimization model incorporating leaf sequencing constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Renchao; Min, Zhifang; Song, Enmin; Liu, Hong; Ye, Yinyu

    2010-02-21

    A novel fluence map optimization model incorporating leaf sequencing constraints is proposed to overcome the drawbacks of the current objective inside smoothing models. Instead of adding a smoothing item to the objective function, we add the total number of monitor unit (TNMU) requirement directly to the constraints which serves as an important factor to balance the fluence map optimization and leaf sequencing optimization process at the same time. Consequently, we formulate the fluence map optimization models for the trailing (left) leaf synchronized, leading (right) leaf synchronized and the interleaf motion constrained non-synchronized leaf sweeping schemes, respectively. In those schemes, the leaves are all swept unidirectionally from left to right. Each of those models is turned into a linear constrained quadratic programming model which can be solved effectively by the interior point method. Those new models are evaluated with two publicly available clinical treatment datasets including a head-neck case and a prostate case. As shown by the empirical results, our models perform much better in comparison with two recently emerged smoothing models (the total variance smoothing model and the quadratic smoothing model). For all three leaf sweeping schemes, our objective dose deviation functions increase much slower than those in the above two smoothing models with respect to the decreasing of the TNMU. While keeping plans in the similar conformity level, our new models gain much better performance on reducing TNMU.

  4. ESTIMATED AND ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ENDOGENOUS AND EXOGENOUS VARIABLES USING FUZZY SEMI-PARAMETRIC SAMPLE SELECTION MODEL

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    L. MuhamadSafiih; A. A. Kamil; M. T. Abu Osman

    2014-01-01

    ... this problem is through the use of semi-parametric method. However, the uncertainties and ambiguities exist in the models, particularly the relationship between the endogenous and exogenous variables...

  5. Incorporating vegetation feedbacks in regional climate modeling over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Wang, G.; Yu, M.; Ahmed, K. F.; Anyah, R. O.

    2015-12-01

    Despite major advancements in modeling of the climate system, incorporating vegetation dynamics into climate models is still at the initial stages making it an ongoing research topic. Only few of GCMs participating in CMIP5 simulations included the vegetation dynamics component. Consideration for vegetation dynamics is even less common in RCMs. In this study, RegCM4.3.4-CLM4-CN-DV, a regional climate model synchronously coupled with a land surface component that includes both Carbon-Nitrogen (CN) and Dynamic-Vegetation (DV) processes is used to simulate and project regional climate over West Africa. Due to its unique regional features, West Africa climate is known for being susceptible to land-atmosphere interactions, enhancing the importance of including vegetation dynamics in modeling climate over this region. In this study the model is integrated for two scenarios (present-day and future) using outputs from four GCMs participating in CMIP5 (MIROC, CESM, GFDL and CCSM4) as lateral boundary conditions, which form the basis of a multi-model ensemble. Results of model validation indicates that ensemble of all models outperforms each of individual models in simulating present-day temperature and precipitation. Therefore, the ensemble set is used to analyze the impact of including vegetation dynamics in the RCM on future projection of West Africa's climate. Results from the ensemble analysis will be presented, together with comparison among individual models.

  6. Development of a unique 3D interaction model of endogenous and synthetic peripheral benzodiazepine receptor ligands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinone, Nunzia; Höltje, Hans-Dieter; Carotti, Angelo

    2000-11-01

    Different classes of Peripheral-type Benzodiazepine Receptor (PBR) ligands were examined and common structural elements were detected and used to develop a rational binding model based on energetically allowed ligand conformations. Two lipophilic regions and one electrostatic interaction site are essential features for high affinity ligand binding, while a further lipophilic region plays an important modulator role. A comparative molecular field analysis, performed over 130 PBR ligands by means of the GRID/GOLPE methodology, led to a PLS model with both high fitting and predictive values (r2 = 0.898, Q2 = 0.761). The outcome from the 3D QSAR model and the GRID interaction fields computed on the putative endogenous PBR ligands DBI (Diazepam Binding Inhibitor) and TTN (Tetracontatetraneuropeptide) was used to identify the amino acids most probably involved in PBR binding. Three amino acids, bearing lipophilic side chains, were detected in DBI (Phe49, Leu47 and Met46) and in TTN (Phe33, Leu31 and Met30) as likely residues underlying receptor binding. Moreover, a qualitative comparison of the molecular electrostatic potentials of DBI, TTN and selected synthetic ligands indicated also similar electronic properties. Convergent results from the modeling studies of synthetic and endogenous ligands suggest a common binding mode to PBRs. This may help the rational design of new high affinity PBR ligands.

  7. Analysis of a Compartmental Model of Endogenous Immunoglobulin G Metabolism with Application to Multiple Myeloma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrick, Felicity; Evans, Neil D.; Arnulf, Bertrand; Avet-Loiseau, Hervé; Decaux, Olivier; Dejoie, Thomas; Fouquet, Guillemette; Guidez, Stéphanie; Harel, Stéphanie; Hebraud, Benjamin; Javaugue, Vincent; Richez, Valentine; Schraen, Susanna; Touzeau, Cyrille; Moreau, Philippe; Leleu, Xavier; Harding, Stephen; Chappell, Michael J.

    2017-01-01

    Immunoglobulin G (IgG) metabolism has received much attention in the literature for two reasons: (i) IgG homeostasis is regulated by the neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn), by a pH-dependent and saturable recycling process, which presents an interesting biological system; (ii) the IgG-FcRn interaction may be exploitable as a means for extending the plasma half-life of therapeutic monoclonal antibodies, which are primarily IgG-based. A less-studied problem is the importance of endogenous IgG metabolism in IgG multiple myeloma. In multiple myeloma, quantification of serum monoclonal immunoglobulin plays an important role in diagnosis, monitoring and response assessment. In order to investigate the dynamics of IgG in this setting, a mathematical model characterizing the metabolism of endogenous IgG in humans is required. A number of authors have proposed a two-compartment nonlinear model of IgG metabolism in which saturable recycling is described using Michaelis–Menten kinetics; however it may be difficult to estimate the model parameters from the limited experimental data that are available. The purpose of this study is to analyse the model alongside the available data from experiments in humans and estimate the model parameters. In order to achieve this aim we linearize the model and use several methods of model and parameter validation: stability analysis, structural identifiability analysis, and sensitivity analysis based on traditional sensitivity functions and generalized sensitivity functions. We find that all model parameters are identifiable, structurally and taking into account parameter correlations, when several types of model output are used for parameter estimation. Based on these analyses we estimate parameter values from the limited available data and compare them with previously published parameter values. Finally we show how the model can be applied in future studies of treatment effectiveness in IgG multiple myeloma with simulations of serum monoclonal

  8. Understanding the Drivers of Economic Growth: Grounding Endogenous Economic Growth Models in Resource-Advantage Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby D. Hunt

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Foss (2012 provides an informed and informative comment on my article “Trust, Personal Moral Codes, and the Resource-Advantage Theory of Competition: Explaining Productivity, Economic Growth, and Wealth Creation” (Hunt, 2012. In general, his comment is highly supportive of both the theory and the arguments developed in my article. He does, however, raise certain issues that need to be addressed. These issues relate to the concept of total factor productivity, the role of institutions in promoting economic growth, and the importance of understanding how transaction costs impact entrepreneurship and economic growth. This reply focuses on his discussion of growth economics and endogenous economic growth models.

  9. Social security in a general equilibrium model with endogenous government behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drissen, E; Van Winden, F

    1991-05-01

    "In this paper attention is focused on the economic and political effects of an aging population. For that purpose, a general equilibrium model is used that allows for an endogenous analysis of decision making on government policies. We concentrate here on the effects of an aging population on expenditures and levels of social security benefits, the provision of public goods and services, the private output and intergenerational conflicts. Special attention will be paid to the effects of changes in the retirement age and in capital endowments. Furthermore, the effects of issues related to aging, as changes in the political influence structure and the motive of other-directedness by others, are investigated."

  10. Cash-In-Advance Constraints in a Schumpeterian Growth Model with an Endogenous Market Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Chien-Yu Huang; Juin-Jen Chang; Lei Ji

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the macro effects of monetary policy in a Schumpeterian growth model with an endogenous market structure and distinct cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints on consumption, production, and two distinct types of R&D investment - in-house R&D and entry investment. We show that the CIA constraints work through various channels and the effects of monetary policy depend on the strength of each channel. Although ination seems like a uniform tax imposed on the whole economy, an identi...

  11. Further Results on “An Endogenous Growth Model with Embodied Energy-Saving Technical Change”

    OpenAIRE

    Hakan Yetkiner; Adrian von Zon

    2007-01-01

    In this short paper we add a non-renewable resource sector to van Zon and Yetkiner (2003) that extended Romer (1990) by including energy consumption of intermediate goods in a context of endogenous and embodied technical change. Van Zon and Yetkiner (2003) showed that the growth rate depends negatively on the growth of exogenous real energy prices. In this paper, we endogenise the growth rate of real energy prices by introducing a non-renewable resource sector into the model. This allows us t...

  12. A Two-Sector Growth Model with Endogenous Human Capital and Amenities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines issues related to urbanization with labour migration. The main departures from the traditional approaches to dynamics of economic structures are that the paper uses an alternative approach to consumer behaviour and introduces human capital accumulation via learning by doing. The model describes dynamic interactions among agricultural and industrial production, rural and urban amenities, distribution of production factors and preferences with endogenous capital and human capital accumulation. We show that the dynamic system may have either a single or multiple equilibrium points, depending upon returns to scale in the two sectors. We also examined effects of changes in some parameters.

  13. Prospective Analysis of Life-Cycle Indicators through Endogenous Integration into a National Power Generation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego García-Gusano

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Given the increasing importance of sustainability aspects in national energy plans, this article deals with the prospective analysis of life-cycle indicators of the power generation sector through the case study of Spain. A technology-rich, optimisation-based model for power generation in Spain is developed and provided with endogenous life-cycle indicators (climate change, resources, and human health to assess their evolution to 2050. Prospective performance indicators are analysed under two energy scenarios: a business-as-usual one, and an alternative scenario favouring the role of carbon dioxide capture in the electricity production mix by 2050. Life-cycle impacts are found to decrease substantially when existing fossil technologies disappear in the mix (especially coal thermal power plants. In the long term, the relatively high presence of natural gas arises as the main source of impact. When the installation of new fossil options without CO2 capture is forbidden by 2030, both renewable technologies and—to a lesser extent—fossil technologies with CO2 capture are found to increase their contribution to electricity production. The endogenous integration of life-cycle indicators into energy models proves to boost the usefulness of both life cycle assessment and energy systems modelling in order to support decision- and policy-making.

  14. A MERGE model with endogenous technological change and the cost of carbon stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, Socrates [Laboratory of Energy Systems Analysis, The Energy Departments, Energy Economics Group, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232, Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2007-11-15

    Two stylized backstop systems with endogenous technological learning (ETL) are introduced in the ''model for evaluating regional and global effects'' (MERGE): one for the electric and the other for the non-electric markets. Then the model is applied to analyze the impacts of ETL on carbon-mitigation policy, contrasting the resulting impacts with the situation without ETL. We model research and development (R and D) spending and learning subsidies for the demonstration and deployment stage as control variables, and we investigate the ability of this extra spending to create path-dependent experience and knowledge to aid in the implementation of carbon-free technologies. Based on model estimations and sensitivity analyses, we conclude that increased commitments for the development of new technologies to advance along their learning curves has a potential for substantial reductions in the cost of mitigating climate change and thereby helping to reach safe concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere. (author)

  15. A mathematical model for incorporating biofeedback into human postural control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ersal Tulga

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biofeedback of body motion can serve as a balance aid and rehabilitation tool. To date, mathematical models considering the integration of biofeedback into postural control have represented this integration as a sensory addition and limited their application to a single degree-of-freedom representation of the body. This study has two objectives: 1 to develop a scalable method for incorporating biofeedback into postural control that is independent of the model’s degrees of freedom, how it handles sensory integration, and the modeling of its postural controller; and 2 to validate this new model using multidirectional perturbation experimental results. Methods Biofeedback was modeled as an additional torque to the postural controller torque. For validation, this biofeedback modeling approach was applied to a vibrotactile biofeedback device and incorporated into a two-link multibody model with full-state-feedback control that represents the dynamics of bipedal stance. Average response trajectories of body sway and center of pressure (COP to multidirectional surface perturbations of subjects with vestibular deficits were used for model parameterization and validation in multiple perturbation directions and for multiple display resolutions. The quality of fit was quantified using average error and cross-correlation values. Results The mean of the average errors across all tactor configurations and perturbations was 0.24° for body sway and 0.39 cm for COP. The mean of the cross-correlation value was 0.97 for both body sway and COP. Conclusions The biofeedback model developed in this study is capable of capturing experimental response trajectory shapes with low average errors and high cross-correlation values in both the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions for all perturbation directions and spatial resolution display configurations considered. The results validate that biofeedback can be modeled as an additional

  16. Population ageing, policy reforms and economic growth in Japan: a computable OLG model with endogenous growth mechanism

    OpenAIRE

    Manabu Shimasawa

    2007-01-01

    We have developed a computable endogenous growth OLG model generated by the accumulation of human capital. To study whether policy reform against aging make any quantitative impacts through human capital formation on the Japanese economy and whether it has long-run effect, we simulate two policy change scenarios and compare the results of those with endogenous growth to those with exogenous growth. The results are very encouraging: (i) policy changes promote human capital accumulation and thu...

  17. Safety models incorporating graph theory based transit indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Liliana; Sayed, Tarek; Wahba, Mohamed M

    2013-01-01

    There is a considerable need for tools to enable the evaluation of the safety of transit networks at the planning stage. One interesting approach for the planning of public transportation systems is the study of networks. Network techniques involve the analysis of systems by viewing them as a graph composed of a set of vertices (nodes) and edges (links). Once the transport system is visualized as a graph, various network properties can be evaluated based on the relationships between the network elements. Several indicators can be calculated including connectivity, coverage, directness and complexity, among others. The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between network-based transit indicators and safety. The study develops macro-level collision prediction models that explicitly incorporate transit physical and operational elements and transit network indicators as explanatory variables. Several macro-level (zonal) collision prediction models were developed using a generalized linear regression technique, assuming a negative binomial error structure. The models were grouped into four main themes: transit infrastructure, transit network topology, transit route design, and transit performance and operations. The safety models showed that collisions were significantly associated with transit network properties such as: connectivity, coverage, overlapping degree and the Local Index of Transit Availability. As well, the models showed a significant relationship between collisions and some transit physical and operational attributes such as the number of routes, frequency of routes, bus density, length of bus and 3+ priority lanes.

  18. Detection of endogenous lithium in neuropsychiatric disorders--a model for biological transmutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurup, Ravi Kumar; Kurup, Parameswara Achutha

    2002-01-01

    The human hypothalamus produces an endogenous membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase inhibitor, digoxin. A digoxin induced model of cellular/neuronal quantal state and perception has been described by the authors. Biological transmutation has been described in microbial systems in the quantal state. The study focuses on the plasma levels of digoxin, RBC membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase activity, plasma levels of magnesium and lithium in neuropsychiatric and systemic disorders. Inhibition of RBC membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase activity was observed in most cases along with an increase in the levels of serum digoxin and lithium and a decrease in the level of serum Mg(++). The generation of endogenous lithium would obviously occur due to biological transmutation from magnesium. Digoxin and lithium together can produce added membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase inhibition. The role of membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase inhibition in the pathogenesis of neuropsychiatric and systemic disorders is discussed. The inhibition of membrane Na(+)-K(+) ATPase can contribute to an increase in intracellular calcium and a decrease in magnesium, which can result in a defective neurotransmitter transport mechanism, mitochondrial dysfunction and apoptosis, defective golgi body function and protein processing dysfunction, immune dysfunction and oncogenesis. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Maintenance, endogeneous, respiration, lysis, decay and predation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    loosdrecht, Marc C. M. Van; Henze, Mogens

    1999-01-01

    In activated sludge processes an increased sludge age is associated with a decreased sludge production. This phenomenon is generally interpreted as a result of endogenous respiration processes. In the activated sludge models cell lysis (or decay) is incorporated. The lysis is modelled...... mechanism is microbiologically correct. The lysis/decay model mechanism is a strongly simplified representation of reality. This paper tries to review the processes grouped under endogenous respiration in activated sludge models. Mechanisms and processes such as maintenance, lysis, internal and external...... and maintenance processes. This conversion will in general be denoted as endogenous respiration. Based on the literature review the phenomena are discussed and organised, in order to create a working platform for discussing more detailed activated sludge models, one of which is being sketched. (C) 1999 IAWQ...

  20. Application of Endogenous Growth Model to the Economy of Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haider Mahmood

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last few decades, governments of developing countries have increasingly viewed foreign direct investment (FDIs as a catalyst for economic growth. This study investigates the impact of FDI on economic growth of Pakistan by using Endogenous Growth Model. Out of a number of variables affecting economic growth, few have been taken into our model e.g. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, Domestic Savings, Employed Labour Force, Capital Formation, Human Capital Index and Balance of Trade. The study examines the causality among economic Growth and all variables mentioned above over the period 1972-2005 using Johansen‟s maximum likelihood co-integration test and multivariate Granger causality test developed by Yamamoto and Toda (1995. The results of Granger causality indicated that in the short run, economic growth is caused by FDIs, domestic savings, human capital index, employed labour force and balance of trade.

  1. Tantalum strength model incorporating temperature, strain rate and pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett; Brown, Justin; Lane, Matt

    Tantalum is a body-centered-cubic (BCC) refractory metal that is widely used in many applications in high temperature, strain rate and pressure environments. In this work, we propose a physically-based strength model for tantalum that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. A constitutive model for single crystal tantalum is developed based on dislocation kink-pair theory, and calibrated to measurements on single crystal specimens. The model is then used to predict deformations of single- and polycrystalline tantalum. In addition, the proposed strength model is implemented into Sandia's ALEGRA solid dynamics code to predict plastic deformations of tantalum in engineering-scale applications at extreme conditions, e.g. Taylor impact tests and Z machine's high pressure ramp compression tests, and the results are compared with available experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  2. Incorporating Plant Phenology Dynamics in a Biophysical Canopy Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barata, Raquel A.; Drewry, Darren

    2012-01-01

    The Multi-Layer Canopy Model (MLCan) is a vegetation model created to capture plant responses to environmental change. Themodel vertically resolves carbon uptake, water vapor and energy exchange at each canopy level by coupling photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and leaf energy balance. The model is forced by incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, as well as near-surface meteorological conditions. The original formulation of MLCan utilized canopy structural traits derived from observations. This project aims to incorporate a plant phenology scheme within MLCan allowing these structural traits to vary dynamically. In the plant phenology scheme implemented here, plant growth is dependent on environmental conditions such as air temperature and soil moisture. The scheme includes functionality that models plant germination, growth, and senescence. These growth stages dictate the variation in six different vegetative carbon pools: storage, leaves, stem, coarse roots, fine roots, and reproductive. The magnitudes of these carbon pools determine land surface parameters such as leaf area index, canopy height, rooting depth and root water uptake capacity. Coupling this phenology scheme with MLCan allows for a more flexible representation of the structure and function of vegetation as it responds to changing environmental conditions.

  3. A dengue model incorporating saturation incidence and human migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gakkhar, S.; Mishra, A.

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, a non-linear model has been proposed to investigate the effects of human migration on dengue dynamics. Human migration has been considered between two patches having different dengue strains. Due to migration secondary infection is possible. Further, the secondary infection is considered in patch-2 only as strain-2 in patch-2 is considered to be more severe than that of strain-1 in patch-1. The saturation incidence rate has been considered to incorporate the behavioral changes towards epidemic in human population. The basic reproduction number has been computed. Four Equilibrium states have been found and analyzed. Increasing saturation rate decreases the threshold thereby enhancing the stability of disease-free state in both the patches. Control on migration may lead to change in infection level of patches.

  4. An SIRS Epidemic Model Incorporating Media Coverage with Time Delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yiping; Dai, Yunxian

    2014-01-01

    An SIRS epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay is proposed. The positivity and boundedness are studied firstly. The locally asymptotical stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is studied in succession. And then, the conditions on which periodic orbits bifurcate are given. Furthermore, we show that the local Hopf bifurcation implies the global Hopf bifurcation after the second critical value of the delay. The obtained results show that the time delay in media coverage can not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number R0 1, the stability of the endemic equilibrium will be affected by the time delay; there will be a family of periodic orbits bifurcating from the endemic equilibrium when the time delay increases through a critical value. Finally, some examples for numerical simulations are also included. PMID:24723967

  5. Computational and Statistical Analyses of Insertional Polymorphic Endogenous Retroviruses in a Non-Model Organism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Bao

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Endogenous retroviruses (ERVs are a class of transposable elements found in all vertebrate genomes that contribute substantially to genomic functional and structural diversity. A host species acquires an ERV when an exogenous retrovirus infects a germ cell of an individual and becomes part of the genome inherited by viable progeny. ERVs that colonized ancestral lineages are fixed in contemporary species. However, in some extant species, ERV colonization is ongoing, which results in variation in ERV frequency in the population. To study the consequences of ERV colonization of a host genome, methods are needed to assign each ERV to a location in a species’ genome and determine which individuals have acquired each ERV by descent. Because well annotated reference genomes are not widely available for all species, de novo clustering approaches provide an alternative to reference mapping that are insensitive to differences between query and reference and that are amenable to mobile element studies in both model and non-model organisms. However, there is substantial uncertainty in both identifying ERV genomic position and assigning each unique ERV integration site to individuals in a population. We present an analysis suitable for detecting ERV integration sites in species without the need for a reference genome. Our approach is based on improved de novo clustering methods and statistical models that take the uncertainty of assignment into account and yield a probability matrix of shared ERV integration sites among individuals. We demonstrate that polymorphic integrations of a recently identified endogenous retrovirus in deer reflect contemporary relationships among individuals and populations.

  6. Incorporating Phaeocystis into a Southern Ocean ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shanlin; Moore, J. Keith

    2011-01-01

    Phaeocystis antarctica is an important phytoplankton species in the Southern Ocean. We incorporated P. antarctica into the biogeochemical elemental cycling ocean model to study Southern Ocean ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemistry. The optimum values of ecological parameters for Phaeocystis were sought through synthesizing laboratory and field observations, and the model output was evaluated with observed chlorophyll a, carbon biomass, and nutrient distributions. Several factors have been proposed to control Southern Ocean ecosystem structure, including light adaptation, iron uptake capability, and loss processes. Optimum simulation results were obtained when P. antarctica had a relatively high α (P-I curve initial slope) value and a higher half-saturation constant for iron uptake than other phytoplankton. Simulation results suggested that P. antarctica had a competitive advantage under low irradiance levels, especially in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea. However, the distributions of P. antarctica and diatoms were also strongly influenced by iron availability. Although grazing rates had an influence on total biomass, our simulations did not show a strong influence of grazing pressure in the competition between P. antarctica and diatoms. However, limited observations and the relative simplicity of zooplankton in our model suggest further research is needed. Overall, P. antarctica contributed ˜13% of annual primary production and ˜19% of sinking carbon export in the Southern Ocean (>40°S) in our best case simulation. At higher latitudes (>60°S) P. antarctica accounts for ˜23% of annual primary production and ˜30% of sinking carbon export.

  7. Gross world product and consumption in a global warming model with endogenous technological change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerlagh, Reyer; Van der Zwaan, Bob [IVM/VU, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2003-02-01

    This paper analyzes the macro-economic costs and effects on consumption and energy demand of limiting the global average atmospheric temperature increase to 2C. We use a macro-economic model in which there are two competing energy technologies (carbon and non-carbon, respectively), technological change is represented endogenously, and energy is aggregated through a CES function implying positive demand for the relatively expensive non-carbon technology. Technological change is represented through a learning curve describing decreasing energy production costs as a function of cumulative experience. We find that energy savings constitutes an important mechanism for decreasing abatement costs in the short- and medium-term, while the acquisition of additional learning experience substantially decreases abatement costs in the longer-term.

  8. THE DYNAMICS OF FERTILITY IN C-K MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS FERTILITY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蔡东汉

    2002-01-01

    Based on the Cass-Koopmans Model with endogenous fertility given in the paper [1-4], the fertility dynamics is discussed in this paper. It is proved that the first quadrant of the k,c plane is separated into two parts by a increasingly differentiable curve.The fertility increases with time on the upper half and decreases with time on the lower half. The fertility decreases along one arm of the economic growth path on which the per capita capital and per consumption increase and increases along the other arm of the economic growth path on which the per capita capital and per person consumption decrease under the condition 0 <θ≤α. This confirms the empirical finds that negative relationship between the economic growth and population growth.

  9. A Discrete Heterogeneous-Group Economic Growth Model with Endogenous Leisure Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a one-sector multigroup growth model with endogenous labor supply in discrete time. Proposing an alternative approach to behavior of households, we examine the dynamics of wealth and income distribution in a competitive economy with capital accumulation as the main engine of economic growth. We show how human capital levels, preferences, and labor force of heterogeneous households determine the national economic growth, wealth, and income distribution and time allocation of the groups. By simulation we demonstrate, for instance, that in the three-group economy when the rich group's human capital is improved, all the groups will economically benefit, and the leisure times of all the groups are reduced but when any other group's human capital is improved, the group will economically benefit, the other two groups economically lose, and the leisure times of all the groups are increased.

  10. An endogenous retrovirus and exogenous scrapie in a mouse model of aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carp, R I; Meeker, H C; Kozlowski, I; Sersen, E A

    2000-01-01

    As we enter the post-genomic era, there is an increasing need for accurate methods of identifying host and pathogen factors that contribute to bacterial, viral and fungal disease. In addition, there is a requirement for fast and precise techniques to evaluate potential therapies for the prevention of infectious diseases. The development of useful and cost-effective model systems will be crucial in advancing our knowledge of all aspects of microbial pathogenesis. In this series, we will learn of animal models used to investigate diseases caused by a wide variety of pathogens, including HIV, Vibrio cholerae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. A description of a model system specifically designed to study intracellular pathogens will be presented, as will a variety of the techniques currently used to exploit other useful models of infection. Additionally, a description of the mathematical models used to analyse the population biology of human onchocerciasis will be discussed. The series begins with an intriguing look at the possible connections between an endogenous retrovirus, the infectious agent of scrapie and accelerated senescence in a mouse model of early aging.

  11. Immunosuppression, peripheral inflammation and invasive infection from endogenous gut microbiota activate retinal microglia in mouse models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneu, Victoria; Noailles, Agustina; Gómez-Vicente, Violeta; Carpena, Nuria; Cuenca, Nicolás; Gil, M Luisa; Gozalbo, Daniel

    2016-09-01

    Although its actual role in the progression of degenerative processes is not fully known, the persistent activated state of retinal microglia and the concurrent secretion of inflammatory mediators may contribute to neuronal death and permanent vision loss. Our objective was to determine whether non-ocular conditions (immunosuppression and peripheral inflammation) could lead to activation of retinal microglia. Mouse models of immunosuppression induced by cyclophosphamide and/or peripheral inflammation by chemically induced sublethal colitis in C57BL/6J mice were used. Retinal microglia morphology, spatial distribution and complexity, as well as MHCII and CD11b expression levels were determined by flow cytometry and confocal immunofluorescence analysis with anti-CD11b, anti-IBA1 and anti-MHCIIRT1B antibodies. Retinas of mice with double treatment showed changes in microglial morphology, spatial distribution and expression levels of CD11b and MHCII. These effects were higher than those observed with any treatment separately. In addition, we also observed in these mice: (i) translocation of endogenous bacteria from gut to liver, and (ii) upregulation of TLR2 expression in retinal microglia. Using a mouse model of immunosuppression and gut colonization by Candida albicans, translocation of fungal cells was confirmed to occur in wild type and, to a higher extent, in TLR2 KO mice, which are more susceptible to fungal invasion; interestingly microglial changes were also higher in TLR2 KO mice. Hence, non-ocular injuries (immunosuppression, peripheral inflammation and invasive infection from endogenous gut microbiota) can activate retinal microglia and therefore could affect the progression of neurodegenerative disorders and should be taken into account to improve therapeutic options. © 2016 The Societies and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  12. Digital terrain model generalization incorporating scale, semantic and cognitive constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partsinevelos, Panagiotis; Papadogiorgaki, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Cartographic generalization is a well-known process accommodating spatial data compression, visualization and comprehension under various scales. In the last few years, there are several international attempts to construct tangible GIS systems, forming real 3D surfaces using a vast number of mechanical parts along a matrix formation (i.e., bars, pistons, vacuums). Usually, moving bars upon a structured grid push a stretching membrane resulting in a smooth visualization for a given surface. Most of these attempts suffer either in their cost, accuracy, resolution and/or speed. Under this perspective, the present study proposes a surface generalization process that incorporates intrinsic constrains of tangible GIS systems including robotic-motor movement and surface stretching limitations. The main objective is to provide optimized visualizations of 3D digital terrain models with minimum loss of information. That is, to minimize the number of pixels in a raster dataset used to define a DTM, while reserving the surface information. This neighborhood type of pixel relations adheres to the basics of Self Organizing Map (SOM) artificial neural networks, which are often used for information abstraction since they are indicative of intrinsic statistical features contained in the input patterns and provide concise and characteristic representations. Nevertheless, SOM remains more like a black box procedure not capable to cope with possible particularities and semantics of the application at hand. E.g. for coastal monitoring applications, the near - coast areas, surrounding mountains and lakes are more important than other features and generalization should be "biased"-stratified to fulfill this requirement. Moreover, according to the application objectives, we extend the SOM algorithm to incorporate special types of information generalization by differentiating the underlying strategy based on topologic information of the objects included in the application. The final

  13. Endogenous opioid antagonism in physiological experimental pain models: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Mads U; Pereira, Manuel P; Andersen, Lars Peter H; Dahl, Jørgen B

    2015-01-01

    Opioid antagonists are pharmacological tools applied as an indirect measure to detect activation of the endogenous opioid system (EOS) in experimental pain models. The objective of this systematic review was to examine the effect of mu-opioid-receptor (MOR) antagonists in placebo-controlled, double-blind studies using 'inhibitory' or 'sensitizing', physiological test paradigms in healthy human subjects. The databases PubMed and Embase were searched according to predefined criteria. Out of a total of 2,142 records, 63 studies (1,477 subjects [male/female ratio = 1.5]) were considered relevant. Twenty-five studies utilized 'inhibitory' test paradigms (ITP) and 38 studies utilized 'sensitizing' test paradigms (STP). The ITP-studies were characterized as conditioning modulation models (22 studies) and repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation models (rTMS; 3 studies), and, the STP-studies as secondary hyperalgesia models (6 studies), 'pain' models (25 studies), summation models (2 studies), nociceptive reflex models (3 studies) and miscellaneous models (2 studies). A consistent reversal of analgesia by a MOR-antagonist was demonstrated in 10 of the 25 ITP-studies, including stress-induced analgesia and rTMS. In the remaining 14 conditioning modulation studies either absence of effects or ambiguous effects by MOR-antagonists, were observed. In the STP-studies, no effect of the opioid-blockade could be demonstrated in 5 out of 6 secondary hyperalgesia studies. The direction of MOR-antagonist dependent effects upon pain ratings, threshold assessments and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP), did not appear consistent in 28 out of 32 'pain' model studies. In conclusion, only in 2 experimental human pain models, i.e., stress-induced analgesia and rTMS, administration of MOR-antagonist demonstrated a consistent effect, presumably mediated by an EOS-dependent mechanisms of analgesia and hyperalgesia.

  14. Incorporating Context Dependency of Species Interactions in Species Distribution Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lany, Nina K; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Gouhier, Tarik C; Menge, Bruce A

    2017-07-01

    Species distribution models typically use correlative approaches that characterize the species-environment relationship using occurrence or abundance data for a single species. However, species distributions are determined by both abiotic conditions and biotic interactions with other species in the community. Therefore, climate change is expected to impact species through direct effects on their physiology and indirect effects propagated through their resources, predators, competitors, or mutualists. Furthermore, the sign and strength of species interactions can change according to abiotic conditions, resulting in context-dependent species interactions that may change across space or with climate change. Here, we incorporated the context dependency of species interactions into a dynamic species distribution model. We developed a multi-species model that uses a time-series of observational survey data to evaluate how abiotic conditions and species interactions affect the dynamics of three rocky intertidal species. The model further distinguishes between the direct effects of abiotic conditions on abundance and the indirect effects propagated through interactions with other species. We apply the model to keystone predation by the sea star Pisaster ochraceus on the mussel Mytilus californianus and the barnacle Balanus glandula in the rocky intertidal zone of the Pacific coast, USA. Our method indicated that biotic interactions between P. ochraceus and B. glandula affected B. glandula dynamics across >1000 km of coastline. Consistent with patterns from keystone predation, the growth rate of B. glandula varied according to the abundance of P. ochraceus in the previous year. The data and the model did not indicate that the strength of keystone predation by P. ochraceus varied with a mean annual upwelling index. Balanus glandula cover increased following years with high phytoplankton abundance measured as mean annual chlorophyll-a. M. californianus exhibited the same

  15. A Study on International Trade and Endogenous/Sustainable Growth Model considering Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Sang In; Kim, Tae Wan; Han, Hwa Jin; Kang, Kwang Gyu; Choi, Dae Seung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2000-12-01

    The worldwide industrialization, which has spread from advanced industrial nations to developing nations via newly industrialized nations, and the expanded international trade have been triggering all kinds of environmental pollution, so the environmental pollution has become an environmental problem of pan-global line. The spread of modern industrial society, which is characterized by mass production and mass consumption, has been polluting an entire earth as well as a relevant area and draining usable natural resources. It has caused discord between evironmentalists - regarding environment - and developmentalists - stressing growth through industralization - to deepen. Joint Working Party on Trade and Environment 0f OECD and Committee on Trade and Environment of WTO, which was established with joint efforts of international community in order to resolve such problems, has suggested new improved methodologies to promote the protection of environment, trade liberalization, and sustainable development, besides the discussion for the establishment of reciprocal supporting relation at the same time. The concept of sustainable development, whose main objects are the protection of environment, economic growth, and social development, is recognized as an alternative program that can settle the deepened discord between developed and developing countries on the surrounding issue of the protection of environment and economic development. Because the past discussion connecting environment and trade was developed around a static analysis, it was not available to consider thoroughly the dynamic environmental effects of trade liberalization. This study started from such a critical mind has developed the theoretical analysis model on endogenous growth in order to study on the reciprocal relation among environment, trade, and growth at the first time. This report examined the reciprocal relation between environment and trade, trade and growth, and growth and environment within

  16. [Endogenous hypertriglyceridemia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukamoto, Kazuhisa

    2013-09-01

    Endogenous hypertriglyceridemia, which includes familial hypertriglyceridemia and idiopathic hypertriglyceridemia, is characterized by the increased level of VLDL-triglycerides in the blood. Increased production of VLDL from the liver and the decreased catabolism of VLDL-TG in the vessel, which are also the main metabolic features of insulin resistance, have been proposed to be the causes of endogenous hypertriglyceridemia. Genetic factors responsible for endogenous hypertriglyceridemia have been elucidated in several studies, however, these factors have so far not been clearly identified yet; thus the causes of endogenous hypertriglyceridemia would be polygenic. Recent advances in the genetic analytical methods like genome-wide association study would hopefully unveil the whole pictures of endogenous hypertriglyceridemia.

  17. Capital accumulation, income distribution and endogenous fertility in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raut, L K

    1991-01-01

    A study is conducted in attempts to increase the understanding of the links between macroeconomic effects and causes of population growth in formulating policy. An overlapping generations general equilibrium model is employed aggregating household decisions about fertility, savings, and investment in the human capital of children with the objective of studying intertemporal relationships among population growth, income distribution, inter-generation social mobility, skill composition of the labor force, and household income. As a result of endogenous fertility, the equilibrium path attains steady state from the second generation. Income tax transfer, child taxation, and social security taxation policies are also examined in the paper. A structural explanation is given for the inverse household income-child quantity and negative child quality-quantity relationships seen in developing countries. In a Cobb-Douglas economy, these relationships hold in the short-run, potentially working over the long-run in other economies. Overall, the model shows that group interests may hinder emergence of perfect capital markets with private initiatives. Where developing countries are concerned, these results have strong implications for population policy. A policy mix of building good quality schools, or subsidizing rural education, introducing a formal social security program, and providing high-yield, risk-free investments, banking, and insurance services to the poor is recommended.

  18. Empirical features of the second-generation target zone models : Mean-reverting fundamentals and endogenous devaluation risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knot, K.H.W.; Dijkstra, T.K.; de Haan, J.

    1999-01-01

    We show that within Bertola and Svensson's second-generation target zone model, mean-reverting interventions and endogenous devaluation risk are closely interrelated. Over the period 1983-93 we analyze the degree of mean reversion in the underlying fundamental process as well as the term structure o

  19. Modulation of the endogenous production of protoporphyrin IX in a yeast-based model organism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joniová, Jaroslava; Gerelli, Emmanuel; Wagnières, Georges

    2017-02-01

    The main aim of this study was to assess conditions at which simple yeast-based model organism produces maximal levels of protoporphyrin IX (PpIX) after an exogenous administration of its precursor, 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA), and the ferrous-ion chelator 2,2'-bipyridyl. We observed that the fluorescing porphyrin, produced after these administrations, was likely to be PpIX since fluorescence spectroscopy of the porphyrins produced endogenously in yeast cells resembles that of PpIX in DMSO and in vivo in the chick's chorioallantoic membrane model. Also, fluorescence lifetimes of these porphyrins are very similar to that of PpIX in vitro and in vivo. This suggests that PpIX is the main fluorescent compound produced by yeast in our conditions. We found that the conditions at which yeast produces the maximal PpIX were a synchronous administration of 5 μM ALA and 1 mM 2,2'-bipyridyl for yeast incubated in aqueous glucose and 1 mM 2,2'-bipyridyl in the presence of YPD medium. Such a simple model is of high interest to study basic mechanisms involved in the mitochondrial respiration since PpIX, which is produced in this organelle, can be used as an oxygen sensor, or to perform photodynamic therapy and photodiagnosis. Since the absorption and scattering coefficients of this model are much smaller than those of soft tissues over the visible part of the spectrum, a version of this model loaded with appropriated amounts of light absorbing and scattering particles could be designed as a phantom to mimic tumors containing PpIX, a useful tool to optimize certain cancer photodetection set-ups.

  20. Fluorescence lifetime imaging of endogenous molecules in live mouse cancer models (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svindrych, Zdenek; Wang, Tianxiong; Hu, Song; Periasamy, Ammasi

    2017-02-01

    NADH and FAD are important endogenous fluorescent coenzymes participating in key enzymatic reactions of cellular metabolism. While fluorescence intensities of NADH and FAD have been used to determine the redox state of cells and tissues, this simple approach breaks down in the case of deep-tissue intravital imaging due to depth- and wavelength-dependent light absorption and scattering. To circumvent this limitation, our research focuses on fluorescence lifetimes of two-photon excited NADH and FAD emission to study the metabolic state of live tissues. In our custom-built scanning microscope we combine tunable femtosecond Ti:sapphire laser (operating at 740 nm for NADH excitation and 890 nm for FAD excitation), two GaAsP hybrid detectors for registering individual fluorescence photons and two Becker and Hickl time correlator boards for high precision lifetime measurements. Together with our rigorous FLIM analysis approach (including image segmentation, multi-exponential decay fitting and detailed statistical analysis) we are able to detect metabolic changes in cancer xenografts (human pancreatic cancer MPanc96 cells injected subcutaneously into the ear of an immunodeficient nude mouse), relative to surrounding healthy tissue. Advantageously, with the same instrumentation we can also take high-resolution and high-contrast images of second harmonic signal (SHG) originating from collagen fibers of both the healthy skin and the growing tumor. The combination of metabolic measurements (NADH and FAD lifetime) and morphological information (collagen SHG) allows us to follow the tumor growth in live mouse model and the changes in tumor microenvironment.

  1. Reliability-based congestion pricing model under endogenous equilibrated market penetration and compliance rate of ATIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钟绍鹏; 邓卫

    2015-01-01

    A reliability-based stochastic system optimum congestion pricing (SSOCP) model with endogenous market penetration and compliance rate in an advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) environment was proposed. All travelers were divided into two classes. The first guided travelers were referred to as the equipped travelers who follow ATIS advice, while the second unguided travelers were referred to as the unequipped travelers and the equipped travelers who do not follow the ATIS advice (also referred to as non-complied travelers). Travelers were assumed to take travel time, congestion pricing, and travel time reliability into account when making travel route choice decisions. In order to arrive at on time, travelers needed to allow for a safety margin to their trip. The market penetration of ATIS was determined by a continuous increasing function of the information benefit, and the ATIS compliance rate of equipped travelers was given as the probability of the actually experienced travel costs of guided travelers less than or equal to those of unguided travelers. The analysis results could enhance our understanding of the effect of travel demand level and travel time reliability confidence level on the ATIS market penetration and compliance rate; and the effect of travel time perception variation of guided and unguided travelers on the mean travel cost savings (MTCS) of the equipped travelers, the ATIS market penetration, compliance rate, and the total network effective travel time (TNETT).

  2. Intraventricular injections of mesenchymal stem cells activate endogenous functional remyelination in a chronic demyelinating murine model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Martinez, P; González-Granero, S; Molina-Navarro, M M; Pacheco-Torres, J; García-Verdugo, J M; Geijo-Barrientos, E; Jones, J; Martinez, S

    2016-01-01

    Current treatments for demyelinating diseases are generally only capable of ameliorating the symptoms, with little to no effect in decreasing myelin loss nor promoting functional recovery. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have been shown by many researchers to be a potential therapeutic tool in treating various neurodegenerative diseases, including demyelinating disorders. However, in the majority of the cases, the effect was only observed locally, in the area surrounding the graft. Thus, in order to achieve general remyelination in various brain structures simultaneously, bone marrow-derived MSCs were transplanted into the lateral ventricles (LVs) of the cuprizone murine model. In this manner, the cells may secrete soluble factors into the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and boost the endogenous oligodendrogenic potential of the subventricular zone (SVZ). As a result, oligodendrocyte progenitor cells (OPCs) were recruited within the corpus callosum (CC) over time, correlating with an increased myelin content. Electrophysiological studies, together with electron microscopy (EM) analysis, indicated that the newly formed myelin correctly enveloped the demyelinated axons and increased signal transduction through the CC. Moreover, increased neural stem progenitor cell (NSPC) proliferation was observed in the SVZ, possibly due to the tropic factors released by the MSCs. In conclusion, the findings of this study revealed that intraventricular injections of MSCs is a feasible method to elicit a paracrine effect in the oligodendrogenic niche of the SVZ, which is prone to respond to the factors secreted into the CSF and therefore promoting oligodendrogenesis and functional remyelination. PMID:27171265

  3. Modelling the vicious circle between obesity and physical activity in children and adolescents using a bivariate probit model with endogenous regressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, C-Y; Chen, L-J; Ku, P-W; Chen, C-M

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents has become one of the most important public health issues around the world. Lack of physical activity is a risk factor for obesity, while being obese could reduce the likelihood of participating in physical activity. Failing to account for the endogeneity between obesity and physical activity would result in biased estimation. This study investigates the relationship between overweight and physical activity by taking endogeneity into consideration. It develops an endogenous bivariate probit model estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The data included 4008 boys and 4197 girls in the 5th-9th grades in Taiwan in 2007-2008. The relationship between overweight and physical activity is significantly negative in the endogenous model, but insignificant in the comparative exogenous model. This endogenous relationship presents a vicious circle in which lower levels of physical activity lead to overweight, while those who are already overweight engage in less physical activity. The results not only reveal the importance of endogenous treatment, but also demonstrate the robust negative relationship between these two factors. An emphasis should be put on overweight and obese children and adolescents in order to break the vicious circle. Promotion of physical activity by appropriate counselling programmes and peer support could be effective in reducing the prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents.

  4. Novel endogenous glycan therapy for retinal diseases: safety, in vitro stability, ocular pharmacokinetic modeling, and biodistribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaminathan, Shankar; Li, Huiling; Palamoor, Mallika; de Obarrio, Walter T Luchsinger; Madhura, Dorababu; Meibohm, Bernd; Jablonski, Monica M

    2014-03-01

    Asialo, tri-antennary oligosaccharide (NA3 glycan) is an endogenous compound, which supports proper folding of outer segment membranes, promotes normal ultrastructure, and maintains protein expression patterns of photoreceptors and Müller cells in the absence of retinal pigment epithelium support. It is a potential new therapeutic for atrophic age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and other retinal degenerative disorders. Herein, we evaluate the safety, in vitro stability, ocular pharmacokinetics and biodistribution of NA3. NA3 was injected into the vitreous of New Zealand white rabbits at two concentrations viz. 1 nM (minimum effective concentration (MEC)) and 100 nM (100XMEC) at three time points. Safety was evaluated using routine clinical and laboratory tests. Ocular pharmacokinetics and biodistribution of [(3)H]NA3 were estimated using scintillation counting in various parts of the eye, multiple peripheral organs, and plasma. Pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated by non-compartmental modeling. A 2-aminobenzamide labeling and hydrophilic interaction liquid interaction chromatography were used to assess plasma and vitreous stability. NA3 was well tolerated by the eye. The concentration of NA3 in eye tissues was in the order: vitreous > retina > sclera/choroid > aqueous humor > cornea > lens. Area under the curve (0 to infinity) (AUC∞) was the highest in the vitreous thereby providing a positive concentration gradient for NA3 to reach the retina. Half-lives in critical eye tissues ranged between 40 and 60 h. NA3 concentrations were negligible in peripheral organs. Radioactivity from [(3)H]NA3 was excreted via urine and feces. NA3 was stable at 37°C in vitreous over a minimum of 6 days, while it degraded rapidly in plasma. Collectively, these results document that NA3 shows a good safety profile and favorable ocular pharmacokinetics.

  5. Endogenous retrovirus induces leukemia in a xenograft mouse model for primary myelofibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triviai, Ioanna; Ziegler, Marion; Bergholz, Ulla; Oler, Andrew J; Stübig, Thomas; Prassolov, Vladimir; Fehse, Boris; Kozak, Christine A; Kröger, Nicolaus; Stocking, Carol

    2014-06-10

    The compound immunodeficiencies in nonobese diabetic (NOD) inbred mice homozygous for the Prkdc(scid) and Il2rg(null) alleles (NSG mice) permit engraftment of a wide-range of primary human cells, enabling sophisticated modeling of human disease. In studies designed to define neoplastic stem cells of primary myelofibrosis (PMF), a myeloproliferative neoplasm characterized by profound disruption of the hematopoietic microenvironment, we observed a high frequency of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in NSG mice. AML was of mouse origin, confined to PMF-xenografted mice, and contained multiple clonal integrations of ecotropic murine leukemia virus (E-MuLV). Significantly, MuLV replication was not only observed in diseased mice, but also in nontreated NSG controls. Furthermore, in addition to the single ecotropic endogenous retrovirus (eERV) located on chromosome 11 (Emv30) in the NOD genome, multiple de novo germ-line eERV integrations were observed in mice from each of four independent NSG mouse colonies. Analysis confirmed that E-MuLV originated from the Emv30 provirus and that recombination events were not necessary for virus replication or AML induction. Pathogenicity is thus likely attributable to PMF-mediated paracrine stimulation of mouse myeloid cells, which serve as targets for retroviral infection and transformation, as evidenced by integration into the Evi1 locus, a hotspot for retroviral-induced myeloid leukemia. This study thus corroborates a role of paracrine stimulation in PMF disease progression, underlines the importance of target cell type and numbers in MuLV-induced disease, and mandates awareness of replicating MuLV in NOD immunodeficient mice, which can significantly influence experimental results and their interpretation.

  6. The Endogenous Kalman Filter

    OpenAIRE

    Brad Baxter; Liam Graham; Stephen Wright

    2007-01-01

    We relax the assumption of full information that underlies most dynamic general equilibrium models, and instead assume agents optimally form estimates of the states from an incomplete information set. We derive a version of the Kalman filter that is endogenous to agents' optimising decisions, and state conditions for its convergence. We show the (restrictive) conditions under which the endogenous Kalman filter will at least asymptotically reveal the true states. In general we show that incomp...

  7. Incorporating Enterprise Risk Management in the Business Model Innovation Process

    OpenAIRE

    Yariv Taran; Harry Boer; Peter Lindgren

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Relative to other types of innovations, little is known about business model innovation, let alone the process of managing the risks involved in that process. Using the emerging (enterprise) risk management literature, an approach is proposed through which risk management can be embedded in the business model innovation process. Design: The integrated business model innovation risk management model developed in this paper has been tested through an action research study in a Dani...

  8. Incorporating inductances in tissue-scale models of cardiac electrophysiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Simone; Griffith, Boyce E.

    2017-09-01

    In standard models of cardiac electrophysiology, including the bidomain and monodomain models, local perturbations can propagate at infinite speed. We address this unrealistic property by developing a hyperbolic bidomain model that is based on a generalization of Ohm's law with a Cattaneo-type model for the fluxes. Further, we obtain a hyperbolic monodomain model in the case that the intracellular and extracellular conductivity tensors have the same anisotropy ratio. In one spatial dimension, the hyperbolic monodomain model is equivalent to a cable model that includes axial inductances, and the relaxation times of the Cattaneo fluxes are strictly related to these inductances. A purely linear analysis shows that the inductances are negligible, but models of cardiac electrophysiology are highly nonlinear, and linear predictions may not capture the fully nonlinear dynamics. In fact, contrary to the linear analysis, we show that for simple nonlinear ionic models, an increase in conduction velocity is obtained for small and moderate values of the relaxation time. A similar behavior is also demonstrated with biophysically detailed ionic models. Using the Fenton-Karma model along with a low-order finite element spatial discretization, we numerically analyze differences between the standard monodomain model and the hyperbolic monodomain model. In a simple benchmark test, we show that the propagation of the action potential is strongly influenced by the alignment of the fibers with respect to the mesh in both the parabolic and hyperbolic models when using relatively coarse spatial discretizations. Accurate predictions of the conduction velocity require computational mesh spacings on the order of a single cardiac cell. We also compare the two formulations in the case of spiral break up and atrial fibrillation in an anatomically detailed model of the left atrium, and we examine the effect of intracellular and extracellular inductances on the virtual electrode phenomenon.

  9. Incorporating Temperature-driven Seasonal Variation in Survival, Growth, and Reproduction Models for Small Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seasonal variation in survival and reproduction can be a large source of prediction uncertainty in models used for conservation and management. A seasonally varying matrix population model is developed that incorporates temperature-driven differences in mortality and reproduction...

  10. Mesenchymal stem cells expressing brain-derived neurotrophic factor enhance endogenous neurogenesis in an ischemic stroke model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Chang Hyun; Kim, Seong Muk; Lim, Jung Yeon; Ryu, Chung Heon; Jun, Jin Ae; Jeun, Sin-Soo

    2014-01-01

    Numerous studies have reported that mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) can ameliorate neurological deficits in ischemic stroke models. Among the various hypotheses that have been suggested to explain the therapeutic mechanism underlying these observations, neurogenesis is thought to be critical. To enhance the therapeutic benefits of human bone marrow-derived MSCs (hBM-MSCs), we efficiently modified hBM-MSCs by introduction of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) gene via adenoviral transduction mediated by cell-permeable peptides and investigated whether BDNF-modified hBM-MSCs (MSCs-BDNF) contributed to functional recovery and endogenous neurogenesis in a rat model of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO). Transplantation of MSCs induced the proliferation of 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine (BrdU-) positive cells in the subventricular zone. Transplantation of MSCs-BDNF enhanced the proliferation of endogenous neural stem cells more significantly, while suppressing cell death. Newborn cells differentiated into doublecortin (DCX-) positive neuroblasts and Neuronal Nuclei (NeuN-) positive mature neurons in the subventricular zone and ischemic boundary at higher rates in animals with MSCs-BDNF compared with treatment using solely phosphate buffered saline (PBS) or MSCs. Triphenyltetrazolium chloride staining and behavioral analysis revealed greater functional recovery in animals with MSCs-BDNF compared with the other groups. MSCs-BDNF exhibited effective therapeutic potential by protecting cell from apoptotic death and enhancing endogenous neurogenesis.

  11. Mesenchymal Stem Cells Expressing Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Enhance Endogenous Neurogenesis in an Ischemic Stroke Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Hyun Jeong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerous studies have reported that mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs can ameliorate neurological deficits in ischemic stroke models. Among the various hypotheses that have been suggested to explain the therapeutic mechanism underlying these observations, neurogenesis is thought to be critical. To enhance the therapeutic benefits of human bone marrow-derived MSCs (hBM-MSCs, we efficiently modified hBM-MSCs by introduction of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF gene via adenoviral transduction mediated by cell-permeable peptides and investigated whether BDNF-modified hBM-MSCs (MSCs-BDNF contributed to functional recovery and endogenous neurogenesis in a rat model of middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO. Transplantation of MSCs induced the proliferation of 5-bromo-2′-deoxyuridine (BrdU- positive cells in the subventricular zone. Transplantation of MSCs-BDNF enhanced the proliferation of endogenous neural stem cells more significantly, while suppressing cell death. Newborn cells differentiated into doublecortin (DCX- positive neuroblasts and Neuronal Nuclei (NeuN- positive mature neurons in the subventricular zone and ischemic boundary at higher rates in animals with MSCs-BDNF compared with treatment using solely phosphate buffered saline (PBS or MSCs. Triphenyltetrazolium chloride staining and behavioral analysis revealed greater functional recovery in animals with MSCs-BDNF compared with the other groups. MSCs-BDNF exhibited effective therapeutic potential by protecting cell from apoptotic death and enhancing endogenous neurogenesis.

  12. Sunlight inactivation of viruses in open-water unit process treatment wetlands: modeling endogenous and exogenous inactivation rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverman, Andrea I; Nguyen, Mi T; Schilling, Iris E; Wenk, Jannis; Nelson, Kara L

    2015-03-03

    Sunlight inactivation is an important mode of disinfection for viruses in surface waters. In constructed wetlands, for example, open-water cells can be used to promote sunlight disinfection and remove pathogenic viruses from wastewater. To aid in the design of these systems, we developed predictive models of virus attenuation that account for endogenous and exogenous sunlight-mediated inactivation mechanisms. Inactivation rate models were developed for two viruses, MS2 and poliovirus type 3; laboratory- and field-scale experiments were conducted to evaluate the models' ability to estimate inactivation rates in a pilot-scale, open-water, unit-process wetland cell. Endogenous inactivation rates were modeled using either photoaction spectra or total, incident UVB irradiance. Exogenous inactivation rates were modeled on the basis of virus susceptibilities to singlet oxygen. Results from both laboratory- and field-scale experiments showed good agreement between measured and modeled inactivation rates. The modeling approach presented here can be applied to any sunlit surface water and utilizes easily measured inputs such as depth, solar irradiance, water matrix absorbance, singlet oxygen concentration, and the virus-specific apparent second-order rate constant with singlet oxygen (k2). Interestingly, the MS2 k2 in the open-water wetland was found to be significantly larger than k2 observed in other waters in previous studies. Examples of how the model can be used to design and optimize natural treatment systems for virus inactivation are provided.

  13. Multiplicity Control in Structural Equation Modeling: Incorporating Parameter Dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Carrie E.; Cribbie, Robert A.

    2013-01-01

    When structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses are conducted, significance tests for all important model relationships (parameters including factor loadings, covariances, etc.) are typically conducted at a specified nominal Type I error rate ([alpha]). Despite the fact that many significance tests are often conducted in SEM, rarely is…

  14. Incorporating Enterprise Risk Management in the Business Model Innovation Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yariv Taran

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Relative to other types of innovations, little is known about business model innovation, let alone the process of managing the risks involved in that process. Using the emerging (enterprise risk management literature, an approach is proposed through which risk management can be embedded in the business model innovation process. Design: The integrated business model innovation risk management model developed in this paper has been tested through an action research study in a Danish company. Findings: The study supports our proposition that the implementation of risk management throughout the innovation process reduces the risks related to the uncertainty and complexity of developing and implementing a new business model. Originality: The study supports the proposition that the implementation of risk management throughout the innovation process reduces the risks related to the uncertainty and complexity of developing and implementing a new business model. The business model risk management model makes managers much more focused on identifying problematic issues and putting explicit plans and timetables into place for resolving/reducing risks, and assists companies in aligning the risk treatment choices made during the

  15. A Constrained CA Model for Planning Simulation Incorporating Institutional Constraints

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    In recent years,it is prevailing to simulate urban growth by means of cellular automata (CA in short) modeling,which is based on selforganizing theories and different from the system dynamic modeling.Since the urban system is definitely complex,the CA models applied in urban growth simulation should take into consideration not only the neighborhood influence,but also other factors influencing urban development.We bring forward the term of complex constrained CA (CC-CA in short) model,which integrates the constrained conditions of neighborhood,macro socio-economy,space and institution.Particularly,the constrained construction zoning,as one institutional constraint,is considered in the CC-CA modeling.In the paper,the conceptual CC-CA model is introduced together with the transition rules.Based on the CC-CA model for Beijing,we discuss the complex constraints to the urban development of,and we show how to set institutional constraints in planning scenario to control the urban growth pattern of Beijing.

  16. Modelling of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor Incorporating Core-loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Suthamno

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a dq-axis modelling of a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM with copper-loss and core-loss taken into account. The proposed models can be applied to PMSM control and drive with loss minimization in simultaneous consideration. The study presents simulation results of direct drive of a PMSM under no-load and loaded conditions using the proposed models with MATLAB codes. Comparisons of the results are made among those obtained from using PSIM and SIMULINK software packages. The comparison results indicate very good agreement.

  17. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  18. Incorporating concern for relative wealth into economic models

    OpenAIRE

    1995-01-01

    This article develops a simple model that captures a concern for relative standing, or status. This concern is instrumental, in the sense that individuals do not get utility directly from their relative standing, but, rather, the concern is induced because their relative standing affects their consumption of standard commodities. The article investigates the consequences of a concern for relative wealth in models in which individuals are making labor/leisure decisions. The analysis shows how ...

  19. Stochastic modelling of landfill leachate and biogas production incorporating waste heterogeneity. Model formulation and uncertainty analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zacharof, A I; Butler, A P

    2004-01-01

    A mathematical model simulating the hydrological and biochemical processes occurring in landfilled waste is presented and demonstrated. The model combines biochemical and hydrological models into an integrated representation of the landfill environment. Waste decomposition is modelled using traditional biochemical waste decomposition pathways combined with a simplified methodology for representing the rate of decomposition. Water flow through the waste is represented using a statistical velocity model capable of representing the effects of waste heterogeneity on leachate flow through the waste. Given the limitations in data capture from landfill sites, significant emphasis is placed on improving parameter identification and reducing parameter requirements. A sensitivity analysis is performed, highlighting the model's response to changes in input variables. A model test run is also presented, demonstrating the model capabilities. A parameter perturbation model sensitivity analysis was also performed. This has been able to show that although the model is sensitive to certain key parameters, its overall intuitive response provides a good basis for making reasonable predictions of the future state of the landfill system. Finally, due to the high uncertainty associated with landfill data, a tool for handling input data uncertainty is incorporated in the model's structure. It is concluded that the model can be used as a reasonable tool for modelling landfill processes and that further work should be undertaken to assess the model's performance.

  20. The incorporation and validation of empirical crawling data into the buildingEXODUS model

    OpenAIRE

    Muhdi, Rani; Gwynne, Steve; Davis, Jerry

    2009-01-01

    The deterioration of environmental conditions can influence evacuee decisions and their subsequent behaviors. Simulating evacuee behaviors enhances the robustness of engineering procedural designs, improves the accuracy of egress models, and better evaluates the safety of evacuees. The purpose of this paper is to more accurately incorporate and validate evacuee crawling behavior into the buildingEXODUS egress model. Crawling data were incorporated into the model and tested for accurate repres...

  1. Modelling toluene oxidation : Incorporation of mass transfer phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoorn, J.A.A.; van Soolingen, J.; Versteeg, G. F.

    2005-01-01

    The kinetics of the oxidation of toluene have been studied in close interaction with the gas-liquid mass transfer occurring in the reactor. Kinetic parameters for a simple model have been estimated on basis of experimental observations performed under industrial conditions. The conclusions for the m

  2. Modelling toluene oxidation : Incorporation of mass transfer phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoorn, J.A.A.; van Soolingen, J.; Versteeg, G. F.

    The kinetics of the oxidation of toluene have been studied in close interaction with the gas-liquid mass transfer occurring in the reactor. Kinetic parameters for a simple model have been estimated on basis of experimental observations performed under industrial conditions. The conclusions for the

  3. Modelling toluene oxidation : Incorporation of mass transfer phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoorn, J.A.A.; van Soolingen, J.; Versteeg, G. F.

    2005-01-01

    The kinetics of the oxidation of toluene have been studied in close interaction with the gas-liquid mass transfer occurring in the reactor. Kinetic parameters for a simple model have been estimated on basis of experimental observations performed under industrial conditions. The conclusions for the m

  4. Incorporating Uncertainties in Satellite-Derived Chlorophyll into Model Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    radiances in the seven visible MODIS channels used in the estimation of the bio-optical products, such as chlorophyll, absorption and backscattering...grazers, nitrate, silicate, ammonium, and two detritus pools. Phytoplankton photosynthesis in the biochemical model is driven by Photosynthetically

  5. Day-to-day route choice modeling incorporating inertial behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Essen, van M.A.; Rakha, H.; Vreeswijk, J.D.; Wismans, L.J.J.; Berkum, van E.C.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate route choice modeling is one of the most important aspects when predicting the effects of transport policy and dynamic traffic management. Moreover, the effectiveness of intervention measures to a large extent depends on travelers’ response to the changes these measures cause. As a compleme

  6. Workforce scheduling: A new model incorporating human factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Othman

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The majority of a company’s improvement comes when the right workers with the right skills, behaviors and capacities are deployed appropriately throughout a company. This paper considers a workforce scheduling model including human aspects such as skills, training, workers’ personalities, workers’ breaks and workers’ fatigue and recovery levels. This model helps to minimize the hiring, firing, training and overtime costs, minimize the number of fired workers with high performance, minimize the break time and minimize the average worker’s fatigue level.Design/methodology/approach: To achieve this objective, a multi objective mixed integer programming model is developed to determine the amount of hiring, firing, training and overtime for each worker type.Findings: The results indicate that the worker differences should be considered in workforce scheduling to generate realistic plans with minimum costs. This paper also investigates the effects of human fatigue and recovery on the performance of the production systems.Research limitations/implications: In this research, there are some assumptions that might affect the accuracy of the model such as the assumption of certainty of the demand in each period, and the linearity function of Fatigue accumulation and recovery curves. These assumptions can be relaxed in future work.Originality/value: In this research, a new model for integrating workers’ differences with workforce scheduling is proposed. To the authors' knowledge, it is the first time to study the effects of different important human factors such as human personality, skills and fatigue and recovery in the workforce scheduling process. This research shows that considering both technical and human factors together can reduce the costs in manufacturing systems and ensure the safety of the workers.

  7. Incorporating Satellite Time-Series Data into Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson

    2008-01-01

    In situ time series observations have provided a multi-decadal view of long-term changes in ocean biology. These observations are sufficiently reliable to enable discernment of even relatively small changes, and provide continuous information on a host of variables. Their key drawback is their limited domain. Satellite observations from ocean color sensors do not suffer the drawback of domain, and simultaneously view the global oceans. This attribute lends credence to their use in global and regional model validation and data assimilation. We focus on these applications using the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model. The enhancement of the satellite data using data assimilation is featured and the limitation of tongterm satellite data sets is also discussed.

  8. Aircraft conceptual design modelling incorporating reliability and maintainability predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Vaziry-Zanjany , Mohammad Ali (F)

    1996-01-01

    A computer assisted conceptual aircraft design program has been developed (CACAD). It has an optimisation capability, with extensive break-down in maintenance costs. CACAD's aim is to optimise the size, and configurations of turbofan-powered transport aircraft. A methodology was developed to enhance the reliability of current aircraft systems, and was applied to avionics systems. R&M models of thermal management were developed and linked with avionics failure rate and its ma...

  9. Incorporating nucleosomes into thermodynamic models of transcription regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raveh-Sadka, Tali; Levo, Michal; Segal, Eran

    2009-08-01

    Transcriptional control is central to many cellular processes, and, consequently, much effort has been devoted to understanding its underlying mechanisms. The organization of nucleosomes along promoter regions is important for this process, since most transcription factors cannot bind nucleosomal sequences and thus compete with nucleosomes for DNA access. This competition is governed by the relative concentrations of nucleosomes and transcription factors and by their respective sequence binding preferences. However, despite its importance, a mechanistic understanding of the quantitative effects that the competition between nucleosomes and factors has on transcription is still missing. Here we use a thermodynamic framework based on fundamental principles of statistical mechanics to explore theoretically the effect that different nucleosome organizations along promoters have on the activation dynamics of promoters in response to varying concentrations of the regulating factors. We show that even simple landscapes of nucleosome organization reproduce experimental results regarding the effect of nucleosomes as general repressors and as generators of obligate binding cooperativity between factors. Our modeling framework also allows us to characterize the effects that various sequence elements of promoters have on the induction threshold and on the shape of the promoter activation curves. Finally, we show that using only sequence preferences for nucleosomes and transcription factors, our model can also predict expression behavior of real promoter sequences, thereby underscoring the importance of the interplay between nucleosomes and factors in determining expression kinetics.

  10. Models of microbiome evolution incorporating host and microbial selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Qinglong; Wu, Steven; Sukumaran, Jeet; Rodrigo, Allen

    2017-09-25

    Numerous empirical studies suggest that hosts and microbes exert reciprocal selective effects on their ecological partners. Nonetheless, we still lack an explicit framework to model the dynamics of both hosts and microbes under selection. In a previous study, we developed an agent-based forward-time computational framework to simulate the neutral evolution of host-associated microbial communities in a constant-sized, unstructured population of hosts. These neutral models allowed offspring to sample microbes randomly from parents and/or from the environment. Additionally, the environmental pool of available microbes was constituted by fixed and persistent microbial OTUs and by contributions from host individuals in the preceding generation. In this paper, we extend our neutral models to allow selection to operate on both hosts and microbes. We do this by constructing a phenome for each microbial OTU consisting of a sample of traits that influence host and microbial fitnesses independently. Microbial traits can influence the fitness of hosts ("host selection") and the fitness of microbes ("trait-mediated microbial selection"). Additionally, the fitness effects of traits on microbes can be modified by their hosts ("host-mediated microbial selection"). We simulate the effects of these three types of selection, individually or in combination, on microbiome diversities and the fitnesses of hosts and microbes over several thousand generations of hosts. We show that microbiome diversity is strongly influenced by selection acting on microbes. Selection acting on hosts only influences microbiome diversity when there is near-complete direct or indirect parental contribution to the microbiomes of offspring. Unsurprisingly, microbial fitness increases under microbial selection. Interestingly, when host selection operates, host fitness only increases under two conditions: (1) when there is a strong parental contribution to microbial communities or (2) in the absence of a strong

  11. Amphiphilic poly-N-vinylpyrrolidone nanocarriers with incorporated model proteins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuskov, A N [Department of Polymers, D I Mendeleyev University of Chemical Technology, 9 Miusskaya Square, Moscow 125047 (Russian Federation); Villemson, A L [Department of Chemistry, M V Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119992 Moscow (Russian Federation); Shtilman, M I [Department of Polymers, D I Mendeleyev University of Chemical Technology, 9 Miusskaya Square, Moscow 125047 (Russian Federation); Larionova, N I [Department of Chemistry, M V Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119992 Moscow (Russian Federation); Tsatsakis, A M [Medical School, University of Crete, Voutes, 71409 Heraklion, Crete (Greece); Tsikalas, I [Department of Chemistry and Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas (FORTH), University of Crete, PO Box 2208, Heraklion 71003, Crete (Greece); Rizos, A K [Department of Chemistry and Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas (FORTH), University of Crete, PO Box 2208, Heraklion 71003, Crete (Greece)

    2007-05-23

    New nanoscaled polymeric carriers have been prepared on the basis of different amphiphilic water-soluble derivatives of poly-N-vinylpyrrolidone (PVP). The polymer self-assembly and interaction with model proteins (Bowman-Birk soybean proteinase inhibitor (BBI) and its hydrophobized derivatives) were studied in aqueous media. The possibility of inclusion of both BBI and hydrophobized oleic acid derivatives of BBI in amphiphilic PVP aggregates was investigated. It was ascertained that polymeric particles of size 50-80 nm were formed in certain concentrations of amphiphilic PVP and poorly soluble dioleic acid derivatives of BBI. Such polymeric aggregates are capable of solubilization of dioleoyl BBI with a concomitant prevention of its inactivation at low pH values.

  12. Amphiphilic poly-N-vinylpyrrolidone nanocarriers with incorporated model proteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuskov, A. N.; Villemson, A. L.; Shtilman, M. I.; Larionova, N. I.; Tsatsakis, A. M.; Tsikalas, I.; Rizos, A. K.

    2007-05-01

    New nanoscaled polymeric carriers have been prepared on the basis of different amphiphilic water-soluble derivatives of poly-N-vinylpyrrolidone (PVP). The polymer self-assembly and interaction with model proteins (Bowman-Birk soybean proteinase inhibitor (BBI) and its hydrophobized derivatives) were studied in aqueous media. The possibility of inclusion of both BBI and hydrophobized oleic acid derivatives of BBI in amphiphilic PVP aggregates was investigated. It was ascertained that polymeric particles of size 50-80 nm were formed in certain concentrations of amphiphilic PVP and poorly soluble dioleic acid derivatives of BBI. Such polymeric aggregates are capable of solubilization of dioleoyl BBI with a concomitant prevention of its inactivation at low pH values.

  13. Incorporating flood event analyses and catchment structures into model development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppel, Henning; Schumann, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The space-time variability in catchment response results from several hydrological processes which differ in their relevance in an event-specific way. An approach to characterise this variance consists in comparisons between flood events in a catchment and between flood responses of several sub-basins in such an event. In analytical frameworks the impact of space and time variability of rainfall on runoff generation due to rainfall excess can be characterised. Moreover the effect of hillslope and channel network routing on runoff timing can be specified. Hence, a modelling approach is needed to specify the runoff generation and formation. Knowing the space-time variability of rainfall and the (spatial averaged) response of a catchment it seems worthwhile to develop new models based on event and catchment analyses. The consideration of spatial order and the distribution of catchment characteristics in their spatial variability and interaction with the space-time variability of rainfall provides additional knowledge about hydrological processes at the basin scale. For this purpose a new procedure to characterise the spatial heterogeneity of catchments characteristics in their succession along the flow distance (differentiated between river network and hillslopes) was developed. It was applied to study of flood responses at a set of nested catchments in a river basin in eastern Germany. In this study the highest observed rainfall-runoff events were analysed, beginning at the catchment outlet and moving upstream. With regard to the spatial heterogeneities of catchment characteristics, sub-basins were separated by new algorithms to attribute runoff-generation, hillslope and river network processes. With this procedure the cumulative runoff response at the outlet can be decomposed and individual runoff features can be assigned to individual aspects of the catchment. Through comparative analysis between the sub-catchments and the assigned effects on runoff dynamics new

  14. Local and global bifurcations in an economic growth model with endogenous labour supply and multiplicative external habits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gori, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

    2014-03-01

    This paper analyses the mathematical properties of an economic growth model with overlapping generations, endogenous labour supply, and multiplicative external habits. The dynamics of the economy is characterised by a two-dimensional map describing the time evolution of capital and labour supply. We show that if the relative importance of external habits in the utility function is sufficiently high, multiple (determinate or indeterminate) fixed points and poverty traps can exist. In addition, periodic or quasiperiodic behaviour and/or coexistence of attractors may occur.

  15. THE OPTIMAL ALLOCATION ABOUT CAPITAL AND LABOR IN THE ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH AN ENDOGENOUS TECHNICAL PROGRESS MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘金山; 李楚霖; 胡适耕

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, the balanced economic growth path was considered in a new growth model with endogenous technical progress. It is not only obtained the optimal allocation about capital and labor between a goods-producing sector and a R&D Sector,but also the optimal value of saving rates. By discussing the effect of parameters, it are also got the following results: When the rate of time preference (discount factor) rising, the fractions of Capital and labor in the goods-producing sector will increase , the fractions in R&D sector and the saving rates will decrease; When the population grows rapidly, the result will be contrary.

  16. Local and global bifurcations in an economic growth model with endogenous labour supply and multiplicative external habits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gori, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

    2014-03-01

    This paper analyses the mathematical properties of an economic growth model with overlapping generations, endogenous labour supply, and multiplicative external habits. The dynamics of the economy is characterised by a two-dimensional map describing the time evolution of capital and labour supply. We show that if the relative importance of external habits in the utility function is sufficiently high, multiple (determinate or indeterminate) fixed points and poverty traps can exist. In addition, periodic or quasiperiodic behaviour and/or coexistence of attractors may occur.

  17. Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data: incorporating delayed entry and an assessment of model misspecification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowther, Michael J; Andersson, Therese M-L; Lambert, Paul C; Abrams, Keith R; Humphreys, Keith

    2016-03-30

    A now common goal in medical research is to investigate the inter-relationships between a repeatedly measured biomarker, measured with error, and the time to an event of interest. This form of question can be tackled with a joint longitudinal-survival model, with the most common approach combining a longitudinal mixed effects model with a proportional hazards survival model, where the models are linked through shared random effects. In this article, we look at incorporating delayed entry (left truncation), which has received relatively little attention. The extension to delayed entry requires a second set of numerical integration, beyond that required in a standard joint model. We therefore implement two sets of fully adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature with nested Gauss-Kronrod quadrature (to allow time-dependent association structures), conducted simultaneously, to evaluate the likelihood. We evaluate fully adaptive quadrature compared with previously proposed non-adaptive quadrature through a simulation study, showing substantial improvements, both in terms of minimising bias and reducing computation time. We further investigate, through simulation, the consequences of misspecifying the longitudinal trajectory and its impact on estimates of association. Our scenarios showed the current value association structure to be very robust, compared with the rate of change that we found to be highly sensitive showing that assuming a simpler trend when the truth is more complex can lead to substantial bias. With emphasis on flexible parametric approaches, we generalise previous models by proposing the use of polynomials or splines to capture the longitudinal trend and restricted cubic splines to model the baseline log hazard function. The methods are illustrated on a dataset of breast cancer patients, modelling mammographic density jointly with survival, where we show how to incorporate density measurements prior to the at-risk period, to make use of all the available

  18. ENDOGENEITY OF INDONESIAN MONEY SUPPLY

    OpenAIRE

    Meutia Safrina Rachma

    2011-01-01

    There has been a long debate about the endogeneity of money supply. The main objective of this article is to identify whether money supply in Indonesia is an exogenous or an endogenous variable. Using a Vector Autoregressive model and monthly data 1997(5)-2010(6), the estimation result shows that money supply in Indonesia is an endogenous variable. The movement of broad money supply does influence the movement of base money and Consumer Price Index. Consequently, the central bank does not hav...

  19. Human motor neuron progenitor transplantation leads to endogenous neuronal sparing in 3 models of motor neuron loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyatt, Tanya J; Rossi, Sharyn L; Siegenthaler, Monica M; Frame, Jennifer; Robles, Rockelle; Nistor, Gabriel; Keirstead, Hans S

    2011-01-01

    Motor neuron loss is characteristic of many neurodegenerative disorders and results in rapid loss of muscle control, paralysis, and eventual death in severe cases. In order to investigate the neurotrophic effects of a motor neuron lineage graft, we transplanted human embryonic stem cell-derived motor neuron progenitors (hMNPs) and examined their histopathological effect in three animal models of motor neuron loss. Specifically, we transplanted hMNPs into rodent models of SMA (Δ7SMN), ALS (SOD1 G93A), and spinal cord injury (SCI). The transplanted cells survived and differentiated in all models. In addition, we have also found that hMNPs secrete physiologically active growth factors in vivo, including NGF and NT-3, which significantly enhanced the number of spared endogenous neurons in all three animal models. The ability to maintain dying motor neurons by delivering motor neuron-specific neurotrophic support represents a powerful treatment strategy for diseases characterized by motor neuron loss.

  20. Endogenous economic growth, EROI, and transition towards renewable energy

    OpenAIRE

    Victor Court; Pierre-André Jouvet; Frédéric Lantz

    2015-01-01

    Due to their initial lack of emphasis on energy and natural resources, exogenous and endogenous growth models have suffered the same critic regarding the limits to economic growth imposed by finite Earth resources. Thus, various optimal control models that incorporate energy or natural resources have been developed during the last decades. However, in all these models the importance of the Energy Return On Energy Investment (EROI) has never been raised. The EROI is the ratio of the quantity o...

  1. Explosive volcanism and associated pressures - Implications for models of endogenically shocked quartz

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Silva, S. L.; Wolff, J. A.; Sharpton, V. L.

    1990-01-01

    The nature of explosive volcanic phenomena and associated pressures, both from field and theoretical perspectives, is discussed. An endogenic origin for shocked quartz at the K/T boundary requires impulsive pressures greater than 60 kbars to be generated during explosive volcanism. Explosive volcanic eruptions which are events of sustained decompression may be initiated by impulsive explosions while the magnitudes of the overpressures are small. These maximum overpressures can be controlled mainly by the tensile strength of the rock surrounding the magma chamber-conduit system. Thus maximum overpressures in the volcanic environment are limited to less than 500 bars which are orders of magnitude less than those required for shock quartz (greater than 60 kbars). This observation is found to be consistent with the complete lack of field or petrographic evidence in support of shock metamorphism associated with volcanic eruptions and their products.

  2. Hypoxia Inducible Factor 1α Promotes Endogenous Adaptive Response in Rat Model of Chronic Cerebral Hypoperfusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypoxia inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α, a pivotal regulator of gene expression in response to hypoxia and ischemia, is now considered to regulate both pro-survival and pro-death responses depending on the duration and severity of the stress. We previously showed that chronic global cerebral hypoperfusion (CCH triggered long-lasting accumulation of HIF-1α protein in the hippocampus of rats. However, the role of the stabilized HIF-1α in CCH is obscure. Here, we knock down endogenous HIF-1α to determine whether and how HIF-1α affects the disease processes and phenotypes of CCH. Lentivirus expressing HIF-1α small hairpin RNA was injected into the bilateral hippocampus and bilateral ventricles to knock down HIF-1α gene expression in the hippocampus and other brain areas. Permanent bilateral common carotid artery occlusions, known as 2-vessel occlusions (2VOs, were used to induce CCH in rats. Angiogenesis, oxidative stress, histopathological changes of the brain, and cognitive function were tested. Knockdown of HIF-1α prior to 2VO significantly exacerbates the impairment of learning and memory after four weeks of CCH. Mechanically, reduced cerebral angiogenesis, increased oxidative damage, and increased density of astrocytes and microglia in the cortex and some subregions of hippocampus are also shown after four weeks of CCH. Furthermore, HIF-1α knockdown also disrupts upregulation of regulated downstream genes. Our findings suggest that HIF-1α-protects the brain from oxidative stress and inflammation response in the disease process of CCH. Accumulated HIF-1α during CCH mediates endogenous adaptive processes to defend against more severe hypoperfusion injury of the brain, which may provide a therapeutic benefit.

  3. Hypoxia Inducible Factor 1α Promotes Endogenous Adaptive Response in Rat Model of Chronic Cerebral Hypoperfusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ying; Ju, Jieyang; Deng, Min; Wang, Jing; Liu, Hui; Xiong, Li; Zhang, Junjian

    2017-01-17

    Hypoxia inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α), a pivotal regulator of gene expression in response to hypoxia and ischemia, is now considered to regulate both pro-survival and pro-death responses depending on the duration and severity of the stress. We previously showed that chronic global cerebral hypoperfusion (CCH) triggered long-lasting accumulation of HIF-1α protein in the hippocampus of rats. However, the role of the stabilized HIF-1α in CCH is obscure. Here, we knock down endogenous HIF-1α to determine whether and how HIF-1α affects the disease processes and phenotypes of CCH. Lentivirus expressing HIF-1α small hairpin RNA was injected into the bilateral hippocampus and bilateral ventricles to knock down HIF-1α gene expression in the hippocampus and other brain areas. Permanent bilateral common carotid artery occlusions, known as 2-vessel occlusions (2VOs), were used to induce CCH in rats. Angiogenesis, oxidative stress, histopathological changes of the brain, and cognitive function were tested. Knockdown of HIF-1α prior to 2VO significantly exacerbates the impairment of learning and memory after four weeks of CCH. Mechanically, reduced cerebral angiogenesis, increased oxidative damage, and increased density of astrocytes and microglia in the cortex and some subregions of hippocampus are also shown after four weeks of CCH. Furthermore, HIF-1α knockdown also disrupts upregulation of regulated downstream genes. Our findings suggest that HIF-1α-protects the brain from oxidative stress and inflammation response in the disease process of CCH. Accumulated HIF-1α during CCH mediates endogenous adaptive processes to defend against more severe hypoperfusion injury of the brain, which may provide a therapeutic benefit.

  4. Unemployment and endogenous growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schaik, A.B.T.M.; de Groot, H.L.F.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we develop a two-sector endogenous growth model with a dual labour market, based on efficiency wages. Growth is driven by intentional R&D performed in the high-tech and high-wage sector. It is examined how a change in rivalry among firms affects simultaneously growth and unemployment.

  5. Gross world product and consumption in a global warming model with endogenous technological change. A study with DEMETER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van der Zwaan, B.C.C. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Gerlagh, R. [Institute for Environmental Studies IVM, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2002-06-01

    This paper analyzes the macro-economic costs and effects on consumption and energy demand of limiting the global average atmospheric temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius. We use a macro-economic model (DEMETER: DE-carbonization Model with Endogenous Technologies for Emission Reduction) in which there are two competing energy technologies (carbon and non-carbon, respectively), technological change is represented endogenously, and energy is aggregated through a CES function implying positive demand for the relatively expensive non-carbon technology. Technological change is represented through a learning curve describing decreasing energy production costs as a function of cumulative experience. We compare scenarios that (1) allow for energy savings, versus scenarios that assume energy demand following an exogenous path, and scenarios that (2) allow for enhanced learning effects resulting from increased experience obtained with the carbon and non-carbon technologies, versus scenarios that assume production costs following an exogenous path. We find that energy savings constitutes an important mechanism for decreasing abatement costs in the short and medium term, while the acquisition of additional learning experience substantially decreases abatement costs in the longer term.

  6. Incorporating phosphorus cycling into global modeling efforts: a worthwhile, tractable endeavor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Sasha C.; Yang, Xiaojuan; Thornton, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Myriad field, laboratory, and modeling studies show that nutrient availability plays a fundamental role in regulating CO2 exchange between the Earth's biosphere and atmosphere, and in determining how carbon pools and fluxes respond to climatic change. Accordingly, global models that incorporate coupled climate–carbon cycle feedbacks made a significant advance with the introduction of a prognostic nitrogen cycle. Here we propose that incorporating phosphorus cycling represents an important next step in coupled climate–carbon cycling model development, particularly for lowland tropical forests where phosphorus availability is often presumed to limit primary production. We highlight challenges to including phosphorus in modeling efforts and provide suggestions for how to move forward.

  7. Using Unlabeled Data to Improve Inductive Models by Incorporating Transductive Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ShengJun Cheng

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows how to use labeled and unlabeled data to improve inductive models with the help of transductivemodels.We proposed a solution for the self-training scenario. Self- training is an effective semi-supervised wrapper method which can generalize any type of supervised inductive model to the semi-supervised settings. it iteratively refines a inductive model by bootstrap from unlabeled data. Standard self-training uses the classifier model(trained on labeled examples to label and select candidates from the unlabeled training set, which may be problematic since the initial classifier may not be able to provide highly confident predictions as labeled training data is always rare. As a result, it could always suffer from introducing too much wrongly labeled candidates to the labeled training set, which may severely degrades performance. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel self-training style algorithm which incorporate a graph-based transductive model in the self-labeling process. Unlike standard self-training, our algorithm utilizes labeled and unlabeled data as a whole to label and select unlabeled examples for training set augmentation. A robust transductive model based on graph markov random walk is proposed, which exploits manifold assumption to output reliable predictions on unlabeled data using noisy labeled examples. The proposed algorithm can greatly minimize the risk of performance degradation due to accumulated noise in the training set. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm can effectively utilize unlabeled data to improve classification performance.

  8. Cryogenic role of central endogenous hydrogen sulfide in the rat model of endotoxic shock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Rodrigo A R; Soriano, Renato N; Francescato, Heloísa D C; Sabino, João P; Coimbra, Terezila M; Branco, Luiz G S

    2016-11-01

    Thermoregulatory responses to lipopolysaccharide (LPS) are affected by modulators that increase (propyretic) or decrease (cryogenic) body temperature (Tb). We tested the hypothesis that central hydrogen sulfide (H2S) acts as a thermoregulatory modulator and that H2S production in the anteroventral preoptic region of the hypothalamus (AVPO) is increased during hypothermia and decreased during fever induced by bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS, 2.5mg/kg i.p.) in rats kept at an ambient temperature of 25°C. Deep Tb was recorded before and after pharmacological inhibition of the enzyme cystathionine β-synthase (CBS - responsible for H2S endogenous production in the brain) combined or not with LPS administration. To further investigate the mechanisms responsible for these thermoregulatory adjustments, we also measured prostaglandin D2 (PGD2) production in the AVPO. LPS caused typical hypothermia followed by fever. Levels of AVPO H2S were significantly increased during hypothermia when compared to both euthermic and febrile rats. Intracerebroventricular (icv) microinjection of aminooxyacetate (AOA, a CBS inhibitor; 100 pmol) neither affected Tb nor basal PGD2 production during euthermia. In LPS-treated rats, AOA caused increased Tb values during hypothermia, along with enhanced PGD2 production. We conclude that the gaseous messenger H2S modulates hypothermia during endotoxic shock, acting as a cryogenic molecule. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Anger regulation style, anger arousal and acute pain sensitivity: evidence for an endogenous opioid "triggering" model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, John W; Bruehl, Stephen; Chont, Melissa

    2014-08-01

    Findings suggest that greater tendency to express anger is associated with greater sensitivity to acute pain via endogenous opioid system dysfunction, but past studies have not addressed the role of anger arousal. We used a 2 × 2 factorial design with Drug Condition (placebo or opioid blockade with naltrexone) crossed with Task Order (anger-induction/pain-induction or pain-induction/anger-induction), and with continuous Anger-out Subscale scores. Drug × Task Order × Anger-out Subscale interactions were tested for pain intensity during a 4-min ischemic pain task performed by 146 healthy people. A significant Drug × Task Order × Anger-out Subscale interaction was dissected to reveal different patterns of pain intensity changes during the pain task for high anger-out participants who underwent pain-induction prior to anger-induction compared to those high in anger-out in the opposite order. Namely, when angered prior to pain, high anger-out participants appeared to exhibit low pain intensity under placebo that was not shown by high anger-out participants who received naltrexone. Results hint that people with a pronounced tendency to express anger may suffer from inadequate opioid function under simple pain-induction, but may experience analgesic benefit to some extent from the opioid triggering properties of strong anger arousal.

  10. A new model for in situ nitrogen incorporation into 4H-SiC during epitaxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferro, Gabriel; Chaussende, Didier

    2017-02-01

    Nitrogen doping of 4H-SiC during vapor phase epitaxy is still lacking of a general model explaining the apparently contradictory trends obtained by different teams. In this paper, the evolutions of nitrogen incorporation (on both polar Si and C faces) as a function of the main growth parameters (C/Si ratio, temperature, pressure and growth rate) are reviewed and explained using a model based on surface exchanges between the gas phase and the uppermost 4H-SiC atomic layers. In this model, N incorporation is driven mainly by the transient formation of C vacancies, due to H2 etching, at the surface or near the surface. It is shown that all the growth parameters are influencing the probability of C vacancies formation in a similar manner as they do for N incorporation. The surface exchange model proposes a new framework for explaining the experimental results even beyond the commonly accepted reactor type dependency.

  11. Stimulating endogenous cardiac regeneration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda eFinan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The healthy adult heart has a low turnover of cardiac myocytes. The renewal capacity, however, is augmented after cardiac injury. Participants in cardiac regeneration include cardiac myocytes themselves, cardiac progenitor cells, and peripheral stem cells, particularly from the bone marrow compartment. Cardiac progenitor cells and bone marrow stem cells are augmented after cardiac injury, migrate to the myocardium, and support regeneration. Depletion studies of these populations have demonstrated their necessary role in cardiac repair. However, the potential of these cells to completely regenerate the heart is limited. Efforts are now being focused on ways to augment these natural pathways to improve cardiac healing, primarily after ischemic injury but in other cardiac pathologies as well. Cell and gene therapy or pharmacological interventions are proposed mechanisms. Cell therapy has demonstrated modest results and has passed into clinical trials. However, the beneficial effects of cell therapy have primarily been their ability to produce paracrine effects on the cardiac tissue and recruit endogenous stem cell populations as opposed to direct cardiac regeneration. Gene therapy efforts have focused on prolonging or reactivating natural signaling pathways. Positive results have been demonstrated to activate the endogenous stem cell populations and are currently being tested in clinical trials. A potential new avenue may be to refine pharmacological treatments that are currently in place in the clinic. Evidence is mounting that drugs such as statins or beta blockers may alter endogenous stem cell activity. Understanding the effects of these drugs on stem cell repair while keeping in mind their primary function may strike a balance in myocardial healing. To maximize endogenous cardiac regeneration,a combination of these approaches couldameliorate the overall repair process to incorporate the participation ofmultiple cell players.

  12. A new car-following model with the consideration of incorporating timid and aggressive driving behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Guanghan; He, Hongdi; Lu, Wei-Zhen

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a new car-following model is proposed with the consideration of the incorporating timid and aggressive behaviors on single lane. The linear stability condition with the incorporating timid and aggressive behaviors term is obtained. Numerical simulation indicates that the new car-following model can estimate proper delay time of car motion and kinematic wave speed at jam density by considering the incorporating the timid and aggressive behaviors. The results also show that the aggressive behavior can improve traffic flow while the timid behavior deteriorates traffic stability, which means that the aggressive behavior is better than timid behavior since the aggressive driver makes rapid response to the variation of the velocity of the leading car. Snapshot of the velocities also shows that the new model can approach approximation to a wide moving jam.

  13. Incorporation of the capillary hysteresis model HYSTR into the numerical code TOUGH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niemi, A.; Bodvarsson, G.S.; Pruess, K.

    1991-11-01

    As part of the work performed to model flow in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain Nevada, a capillary hysteresis model has been developed. The computer program HYSTR has been developed to compute the hysteretic capillary pressure -- liquid saturation relationship through interpolation of tabulated data. The code can be easily incorporated into any numerical unsaturated flow simulator. A complete description of HYSTR, including a brief summary of the previous hysteresis literature, detailed description of the program, and instructions for its incorporation into a numerical simulator are given in the HYSTR user`s manual (Niemi and Bodvarsson, 1991a). This report describes the incorporation of HYSTR into the numerical code TOUGH (Transport of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat; Pruess, 1986). The changes made and procedures for the use of TOUGH for hysteresis modeling are documented.

  14. Bias associated with failing to incorporate dependence on event history in Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, Tanya G K; Kuntz, Karen M; Ringel, Jeanne S

    2010-01-01

    When using state-transition Markov models to simulate risk of recurrent events over time, incorporating dependence on higher numbers of prior episodes can increase model complexity, yet failing to capture this event history may bias model outcomes. This analysis assessed the tradeoffs between model bias and complexity when evaluating risks of recurrent events in Markov models. The authors developed a generic episode/relapse Markov cohort model, defining bias as the percentage change in events prevented with 2 hypothetical interventions (prevention and treatment) when incorporating 0 to 9 prior episodes in relapse risk versus a model with 10 such episodes. Magnitude and sign of bias were evaluated as a function of event and recovery risks, disease-specific mortality, and risk function. Bias was positive in the base case for a prevention strategy, indicating that failing to fully incorporate dependence on event history overestimated the prevention's predicted impact. For treatment, the bias was negative, indicating an underestimated benefit. Bias approached zero as the number of tracked prior episodes increased, and the average bias over 10 tracked episodes was greater with the exponential compared with linear functions of relapse risk and with treatment compared with prevention strategies. With linear and exponential risk functions, absolute bias reached 33% and 78%, respectively, in prevention and 52% and 85% in treatment. Failing to incorporate dependence on prior event history in subsequent relapse risk in Markov models can greatly affect model outcomes, overestimating the impact of prevention and treatment strategies by up to 85% and underestimating the impact in some treatment models by up to 20%. When at least 4 prior episodes are incorporated, bias does not exceed 26% in prevention or 11% in treatment.

  15. Modeling fraud detection and the incorporation of forensic specialists in the audit process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakalauskaite, Dominyka

    Financial statement audits are still comparatively poor in fraud detection. Forensic specialists can play a significant role in increasing audit quality. In this paper, based on prior academic research, I develop a model of fraud detection and the incorporation of forensic specialists in the audit...... process. The intention of the model is to identify the reasons why the audit is weak in fraud detection and to provide the analytical framework to assess whether the incorporation of forensic specialists can help to improve it. The results show that such specialists can potentially improve the fraud...

  16. A brain slice culture model for studies of endogenous and exogenous precursor cell migration in the rostral migratory stream

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanvig, Mette; Blaabjerg, Morten; Andersen, Rikke K

    2009-01-01

    The rostral migratory stream (RMS) is the main pathway by which newly born subventricular zone (SVZ) cells reach the olfactory bulb (OB) in rodents. This migration has been well studied in vivo, but an organotypic in vitro model would facilitate more experimental investigations. Here we introduce...... a slice culture preparation of the rat forebrain including en suite the rostral part of the lateral ventricle, the RMS and the OB. The preparation was validated with regard to endogenous cell proliferation and migration by tracking bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU)-labelled cells in newly established and 3 and 6...... week old cultures. For testing the migratory abilities of exogenous precursor cells, rat SVZ neurospheres and human neural (HNS1 cells) and mesenchymal (hMSC-TERT) stem cell lines were micrografted to the rostral SVZ of 1 and 7 day old cultures. Two weeks later graft derivatives were identified...

  17. Incorporating Prior Knowledge for Quantifying and Reducing Model-Form Uncertainty in RANS Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Jian-Xun; Xiao, Heng

    2015-01-01

    Simulations based on Reynolds-Averaged Navier--Stokes (RANS) models have been used to support high-consequence decisions related to turbulent flows. Apart from the deterministic model predictions, the decision makers are often equally concerned about the predictions confidence. Among the uncertainties in RANS simulations, the model-form uncertainty is an important or even a dominant source. Therefore, quantifying and reducing the model-form uncertainties in RANS simulations are of critical importance to make risk-informed decisions. Researchers in statistics communities have made efforts on this issue by considering numerical models as black boxes. However, this physics-neutral approach is not a most efficient use of data, and is not practical for most engineering problems. Recently, we proposed an open-box, Bayesian framework for quantifying and reducing model-form uncertainties in RANS simulations by incorporating observation data and physics-prior knowledge. It can incorporate the information from the vast...

  18. Bayseian genomic models for the incorporation of pathway topology knowledge into association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brisbin, Abra; Fridley, Brooke L

    2013-08-01

    Pathway topology and relationships between genes have the potential to provide information for modeling effects of mRNA gene expression on complex traits. For example, researchers may wish to incorporate the prior belief that "hub" genes (genes with many neighbors) are more likely to influence the trait. In this paper, we propose and compare six Bayesian pathway-based prior models to incorporate pathway topology information into association analyses. Including prior information regarding the relationships among genes in a pathway was effective in somewhat improving detection rates for genes associated with complex traits. Through an extensive set of simulations, we found that when hub (central) effects are expected, the diagonal degree model is preferred; when spoke (edge) effects are expected, the spatial power model is preferred. When there is no prior knowledge about the location of the effect genes in the pathway (e.g., hub versus spoke model), it is worthwhile to apply multiple models, as the model with the best DIC is not always the one with the best detection rate. We also applied the models to pharmacogenomic studies for the drugs gemcitabine and 6-mercaptopurine and found that the diagonal degree model identified an association between 6-mercaptopurine response and expression of the gene SLC28A3, which was not detectable using the model including no pathway information. These results demonstrate the value of incorporating pathway information into association analyses.

  19. Multilevel growth curve models that incorporate a random coefficient model for the level 1 variance function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Harvey; Leckie, George; Charlton, Christopher; Tilling, Kate; Browne, William J

    2017-01-01

    Aim To present a flexible model for repeated measures longitudinal growth data within individuals that allows trends over time to incorporate individual-specific random effects. These may reflect the timing of growth events and characterise within-individual variability which can be modelled as a function of age. Subjects and methods A Bayesian model is developed that includes random effects for the mean growth function, an individual age-alignment random effect and random effects for the within-individual variance function. This model is applied to data on boys' heights from the Edinburgh longitudinal growth study and to repeated weight measurements of a sample of pregnant women in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort. Results The mean age at which the growth curves for individual boys are aligned is 11.4 years, corresponding to the mean 'take off' age for pubertal growth. The within-individual variance (standard deviation) is found to decrease from 0.24 cm(2) (0.50 cm) at 9 years for the 'average' boy to 0.07 cm(2) (0.25 cm) at 16 years. Change in weight during pregnancy can be characterised by regression splines with random effects that include a large woman-specific random effect for the within-individual variation, which is also correlated with overall weight and weight gain. Conclusions The proposed model provides a useful extension to existing approaches, allowing considerable flexibility in describing within- and between-individual differences in growth patterns.

  20. A Minimal Model of Ribosome Allocation Dynamics Captures Trade-offs in Expression between Endogenous and Synthetic Genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorochowski, Thomas E; Avcilar-Kucukgoze, Irem; Bovenberg, Roel A L; Roubos, Johannes A; Ignatova, Zoya

    2016-07-15

    Cells contain a finite set of resources that must be distributed across many processes to ensure survival. Among them, the largest proportion of cellular resources is dedicated to protein translation. Synthetic biology often exploits these resources in executing orthogonal genetic circuits, yet the burden this places on the cell is rarely considered. Here, we develop a minimal model of ribosome allocation dynamics capturing the demands on translation when expressing a synthetic construct together with endogenous genes required for the maintenance of cell physiology. Critically, it contains three key variables related to design parameters of the synthetic construct covering transcript abundance, translation initiation rate, and elongation time. We show that model-predicted changes in ribosome allocation closely match experimental shifts in synthetic protein expression rate and cellular growth. Intriguingly, the model is also able to accurately infer transcript levels and translation times after further exposure to additional ambient stress. Our results demonstrate that a simple model of resource allocation faithfully captures the redistribution of protein synthesis resources when faced with the burden of synthetic gene expression and environmental stress. The tractable nature of the model makes it a versatile tool for exploring the guiding principles of efficient heterologous expression and the indirect interactions that can arise between synthetic circuits and their host chassis because of competition for shared translational resources.

  1. A Physically Based Analytical Model to Predict Quantized Eigen Energies and Wave Functions Incorporating Penetration Effect

    CERN Document Server

    Chowdhury, Nadim; Azim, Zubair Al; Alam, Md Hasibul; Niaz, Iftikhar Ahmad; Khosru, Quazi D M

    2014-01-01

    We propose a physically based analytical compact model to calculate Eigen energies and Wave functions which incorporates penetration effect. The model is applicable for a quantum well structure that frequently appears in modern nano-scale devices. This model is equally applicable for both silicon and III-V devices. Unlike other models already available in the literature, our model can accurately predict all the eigen energies without the inclusion of any fitting parameters. The validity of our model has been checked with numerical simulations and the results show significantly better agreement compared to the available methods.

  2. Incorporating Linguistic Rules in Statistical Chinese Language Model for Pinyin-to-character Conversion

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    An N-gram Chinese language model incorporating linguistic rules is presented. By constructing elements lattice, rules information is incorporated in statistical frame. To facilitate the hybrid modeling, novel methods such as MI-based rule evaluating, weighted rule quantification and element-based n-gram probability approximation are presented. Dynamic Viterbi algorithm is adopted to search the best path in lattice. To strengthen the model, transformation-based error-driven rules learning is adopted. Applying proposed model to Chinese Pinyin-to-character conversion, high performance has been achieved in accuracy, flexibility and robustness simultaneously. Tests show correct rate achieves 94.81% instead of 90.53% using bi-gram Markov model alone. Many long-distance dependency and recursion in language can be processed effectively.

  3. A Behavioural Model of Traffic Congestion: Endogenizing Speed Choice, Traffic Safety and Time Losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoef, E.T.; Rouwendal, J.

    2004-01-01

    Conventional economic models of traffic congestion assume that the relation between traffic flow and speed is a technical one. This paper develops a behavioural model of traffic congestion, in which drivers optimize their speeds by trading off time costs, expected accident costs and fuel costs. Sinc

  4. Moment-bases estimation of smooth transition regression models with endogenous variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.D. Areosa (Waldyr Dutra); M.J. McAleer (Michael); M.C. Medeiros (Marcelo)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractNonlinear regression models have been widely used in practice for a variety of time series and cross-section datasets. For purposes of analyzing univariate and multivariate time series data, in particular, Smooth Transition Regression (STR) models have been shown to be very useful for re

  5. Human Motor Neuron Progenitor Transplantation Leads to Endogenous Neuronal Sparing in 3 Models of Motor Neuron Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanya J. Wyatt

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Motor neuron loss is characteristic of many neurodegenerative disorders and results in rapid loss of muscle control, paralysis, and eventual death in severe cases. In order to investigate the neurotrophic effects of a motor neuron lineage graft, we transplanted human embryonic stem cell-derived motor neuron progenitors (hMNPs and examined their histopathological effect in three animal models of motor neuron loss. Specifically, we transplanted hMNPs into rodent models of SMA (Δ7SMN, ALS (SOD1 G93A, and spinal cord injury (SCI. The transplanted cells survived and differentiated in all models. In addition, we have also found that hMNPs secrete physiologically active growth factors in vivo, including NGF and NT-3, which significantly enhanced the number of spared endogenous neurons in all three animal models. The ability to maintain dying motor neurons by delivering motor neuron-specific neurotrophic support represents a powerful treatment strategy for diseases characterized by motor neuron loss.

  6. A new experimental procedure for incorporation of model contaminants in polymer hosts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papaspyrides, C.D.; Voultzatis, Y.; Pavlidou, S.; Tsenoglou, C.; Dole, P.; Feigenbaum, A.; Paseiro, P.; Pastorelli, S.; Cruz Garcia, C. de la; Hankemeier, T.; Aucejo, S.

    2005-01-01

    A new experimental procedure for incorporation of model contaminants in polymers was developed as part of a general scheme for testing the efficiency of functional barriers in food packaging. The aim was to progressively pollute polymers in a controlled fashion up to a high level in the range of 100

  7. 75 FR 56487 - Airworthiness Directives; Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated Model S-64F Helicopters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-16

    ... Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 39 RIN 2120-AA64 Airworthiness Directives; Erickson Air-Crane... rulemaking (NPRM). SUMMARY: This document proposes adopting a new airworthiness directive (AD) for Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated (Erickson Air-Crane) Model S- 64F helicopters. The AD would require, at...

  8. A new experimental procedure for incorporation of model contaminants in polymer hosts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papaspyrides, C.D.; Voultzatis, Y.; Pavlidou, S.; Tsenoglou, C.; Dole, P.; Feigenbaum, A.; Paseiro, P.; Pastorelli, S.; Cruz Garcia, C. de la; Hankemeier, T.; Aucejo, S.

    2005-01-01

    A new experimental procedure for incorporation of model contaminants in polymers was developed as part of a general scheme for testing the efficiency of functional barriers in food packaging. The aim was to progressively pollute polymers in a controlled fashion up to a high level in the range of 100

  9. Incorporating Eco-Evolutionary Processes into Population Models:Design and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eco-evolutionary population models are powerful new tools for exploring howevolutionary processes influence plant and animal population dynamics andvice-versa. The need to manage for climate change and other dynamicdisturbance regimes is creating a demand for the incorporation of...

  10. The Forced Choice Dilemma: A Model Incorporating Idiocentric/Allocentric Cultural Orientation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup; McCormick, John; Gross, Miraca U. M.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a new model of the forced choice dilemma (i.e., the belief held by some intellectually gifted students that they must choose between academic achievement and peer acceptance) that incorporates individual-level cultural orientation variables (i.e., vertical allocentrism and vertical idiocentrism). A survey that had…

  11. SPARC Groups: A Model for Incorporating Spiritual Psychoeducation into Group Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christmas, Christopher; Van Horn, Stacy M.

    2012-01-01

    The use of spirituality as a resource for clients within the counseling field is growing; however, the primary focus has been on individual therapy. The purpose of this article is to provide counseling practitioners, administrators, and researchers with an approach for incorporating spiritual psychoeducation into group work. The proposed model can…

  12. Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, de Jean-Luc; Titus, Milan; Wind, Herman G.

    2000-01-01

    Decision-support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not

  13. Flexibility of wages and macroeconomic instability in an agent-based computational model with endogenous money

    OpenAIRE

    Seppecher, Pascal

    2010-01-01

    International audience; We present a model of a dynamic and complex economy in which the creation and the destruction of money result from interactions between multiple and heterogeneous agents. In the baseline scenario, we observe the stabilization of the income distribution between wages and profits. We then alter the model by increasing the flexibility of wages. This change leads to the formation of a deflationary spiral. Aggregate activity decreases and the unemployment increases. The mac...

  14. Nine challenges in incorporating the dynamics of behaviour in infectious diseases models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Sebastian; Bansal, Shweta; Bauch, Chris T; Eames, Ken T D; Edmunds, W John; Galvani, Alison P; Klepac, Petra

    2015-03-01

    Traditionally, the spread of infectious diseases in human populations has been modelled with static parameters. These parameters, however, can change when individuals change their behaviour. If these changes are themselves influenced by the disease dynamics, there is scope for mechanistic models of behaviour to improve our understanding of this interaction. Here, we present challenges in modelling changes in behaviour relating to disease dynamics, specifically: how to incorporate behavioural changes in models of infectious disease dynamics, how to inform measurement of relevant behaviour to parameterise such models, and how to determine the impact of behavioural changes on observed disease dynamics. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Incorporation of composite defects from ultrasonic NDE into CAD and FE models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bingol, Onur Rauf; Schiefelbein, Bryan; Grandin, Robert J.; Holland, Stephen D.; Krishnamurthy, Adarsh

    2017-02-01

    Fiber-reinforced composites are widely used in aerospace industry due to their combined properties of high strength and low weight. However, owing to their complex structure, it is difficult to assess the impact of manufacturing defects and service damage on their residual life. While, ultrasonic testing (UT) is the preferred NDE method to identify the presence of defects in composites, there are no reasonable ways to model the damage and evaluate the structural integrity of composites. We have developed an automated framework to incorporate flaws and known composite damage automatically into a finite element analysis (FEA) model of composites, ultimately aiding in accessing the residual life of composites and make informed decisions regarding repairs. The framework can be used to generate a layer-by-layer 3D structural CAD model of the composite laminates replicating their manufacturing process. Outlines of structural defects, such as delaminations, are automatically detected from UT of the laminate and are incorporated into the CAD model between the appropriate layers. In addition, the framework allows for direct structural analysis of the resulting 3D CAD models with defects by automatically applying the appropriate boundary conditions. In this paper, we show a working proof-of-concept for the composite model builder with capabilities of incorporating delaminations between laminate layers and automatically preparing the CAD model for structural analysis using a FEA software.

  16. Incorporating sorption/desorption of organic pollutants into river water quality model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LOU Bao-feng; ZHU Li-zhong; YANG Kun

    2004-01-01

    Preliminary research was conducted about how to incorporate sorption/desorption of organic pollutants with suspended solids and sediments into single-chemical and one-dimensional water quality model of Jinghang Canal.Sedimentation-resuspension coefficient k3 was deduced; characteristics of organic pollutants, concentrations and components of suspended solids/sediments and hydrological and hydraulic conditions were integrated into k3 and further into river water quality model; impact of sorption/desorption of organic pollutants with suspended solids and sediments on prediction function of the model was discussed. Results demonstrated that this impact is pronounced for organic pollutants with relatively large Koc and Kow, especially when they are also conservative and foc of river suspended solids/sediments is high, and that incorporation of sorption/ desorption of organic pollutants into river water quality model can improve its prediction accuracy.

  17. Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty in Bayesian Segmentation Models: Application to Hippocampal Subfield Volumetry

    OpenAIRE

    Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Sabuncu, Mert Rory; Van Leemput, Koen

    2012-01-01

    Many successful segmentation algorithms are based on Bayesian models in which prior anatomical knowledge is combined with the available image information. However, these methods typically have many free parameters that are estimated to obtain point estimates only, whereas a faithful Bayesian analysis would also consider all possible alternate values these parameters may take. In this paper, we propose to incorporate the uncertainty of the free parameters in Bayesian segmentation models more a...

  18. Incorporating social role theory into topic models for social media content analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Wayne Xin; Wang, Jinpeng; He, Yulan; Nie, Jian-Yun; Wen, Ji-Rong; Li, Xiaoming

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we explore the idea of social role theory (SRT) and propose a novel regularized topic model which incorporates SRT into the generative process of social media content. We assume that a user can play multiple social roles, and each social role serves to fulfil different duties and is associated with a role-driven distribution over latent topics. In particular, we focus on social roles corresponding to the most common social activities on social networks. Our model is instantiate...

  19. Self-reported pain and disability outcomes from an endogenous model of muscular back pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Steven Z

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Our purpose was to develop an induced musculoskeletal pain model of acute low back pain and examine the relationship among pain, disability and fear in this model. Methods Delayed onset muscle soreness was induced in 52 healthy volunteers (23 women, 17 men; average age 22.4 years; average BMI 24.3 using fatiguing trunk extension exercise. Measures of pain intensity, unpleasantness, and location, and disability, were tracked for one week after exercise. Results Pain intensity ranged from 0 to 68 with 57.5% of participants reporting peak pain at 24 hours and 32.5% reporting this at 48 hours. The majority of participants reported pain in the low back with 33% also reporting pain in the legs. The ratio of unpleasantness to intensity indicated that the sensation was considered more unpleasant than intense. Statistical differences were noted in levels of reported disability between participants with and without leg pain. Pain intensity at 24 hours was correlated with pain unpleasantness, pain area and disability. Also, fear of pain was associated with pain intensity and unpleasantness. Disability was predicted by sex, presence of leg pain, and pain intensity; however, the largest amount of variance was explained by pain intensity (27% of a total 40%. The second model, predicting pain intensity only included fear of pain and explained less than 10% of the variance in pain intensity. Conclusions Our results demonstrate a significant association between pain and disability in this model in young adults. However, the model is most applicable to patients with lower levels of pain and disability. Future work should include older adults to improve the external validity of this model.

  20. Dynamic Panel Data Models Featuring Endogenous Interaction and Spatially Correlated Errors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, J.P.A.M.; Ligthart, J.E.; Vrijburg, H.

    2009-01-01

    We extend the three-step generalized methods of moments (GMM) approach of Kapoor, Kelejian, and Prucha (2007), which corrects for spatially correlated errors in static panel data models, by introducing a spatial lag and a one-period lag of the dependent variable as additional explanatory variables.

  1. Incorporating preferential flow into a 3D model of a forested headwater catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaser, Barbara; Jackisch, Conrad; Hopp, Luisa; Pfister, Laurent; Klaus, Julian

    2016-04-01

    Preferential flow plays an important role for water flow and solute transport. The inclusion of preferential flow, for example with dual porosity or dual permeability approaches, is a common feature in transport simulations at the plot scale. But at hillslope and catchment scales, incorporation of macropore and fracture flow into distributed hydrologic 3D models is rare, often due to limited data availability for model parameterisation. In this study, we incorporated preferential flow into an existing 3D integrated surface subsurface hydrologic model (HydroGeoSphere) of a headwater region (6 ha) of the forested Weierbach catchment in western Luxembourg. Our model philosophy was a strong link between measured data and the model setup. The model setup we used previously had been parameterised and validated based on various field data. But existing macropores and fractures had not been considered in this initial model setup. The multi-criteria validation revealed a good model performance but also suggested potential for further improvement by incorporating preferential flow as additional process. In order to pursue the data driven model philosophy for the implementation of preferential flow, we analysed the results of plot scale bromide sprinkling and infiltration experiments carried out in the vicinity of the Weierbach catchment. Three 1 sqm plots were sprinkled for one hour and excavated one day later for bromide depth profile sampling. We simulated these sprinkling experiments at the soil column scale, using the parameterisation of the base headwater model extended by a second permeability domain. Representing the bromide depth profiles was successful without changing this initial parameterisation. Moreover, to explain the variability between the three bromide depth profiles it was sufficient to adapt the dual permeability properties, indicating the spatial heterogeneity of preferential flow. Subsequently, we incorporated the dual permeability simulation in the

  2. Final Technical Report: "Representing Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Policy Models: General Equilibrium Approaches"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ian Sue Wing

    2006-04-18

    The research supported by this award pursued three lines of inquiry: (1) The construction of dynamic general equilibrium models to simulate the accumulation and substitution of knowledge, which has resulted in the preparation and submission of several papers: (a) A submitted pedagogic paper which clarifies the structure and operation of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (C.2), and a review article in press which develops a taxonomy for understanding the representation of technical change in economic and engineering models for climate policy analysis (B.3). (b) A paper which models knowledge directly as a homogeneous factor, and demonstrates that inter-sectoral reallocation of knowledge is the key margin of adjustment which enables induced technical change to lower the costs of climate policy (C.1). (c) An empirical paper which estimates the contribution of embodied knowledge to aggregate energy intensity in the U.S. (C.3), followed by a companion article which embeds these results within a CGE model to understand the degree to which autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) is attributable to technical change as opposed to sub-sectoral shifts in industrial composition (C.4) (d) Finally, ongoing theoretical work to characterize the precursors and implications of the response of innovation to emission limits (E.2). (2) Data development and simulation modeling to understand how the characteristics of discrete energy supply technologies determine their succession in response to emission limits when they are embedded within a general equilibrium framework. This work has produced two peer-reviewed articles which are currently in press (B.1 and B.2). (3) Empirical investigation of trade as an avenue for the transmission of technological change to developing countries, and its implications for leakage, which has resulted in an econometric study which is being revised for submission to a journal (E.1). As work commenced on this topic, the U.S. withdrawal

  3. Endogenous Reactivity in a Dynamic Model of Consumer’s Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad K. Naimzada

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We move from a boundedly rational consumer model (Naimzada and Tramontana, 2008, 2010 characterized by a gradient-like decisional process in which, under particular parameters conditions, the asymptotical convergence to the optimal choice does not happen but it does under a least squared learning mechanism. In the present paper, we prove that even a less sophisticated learning mechanism leads to convergence to the rational choice and also prove that convergence is ensured when both learning mechanisms are available. The stability results that we obtain give more strength to the rational behavior assumption of the original model; in fact, the less demanding is the learning mechanism ensuring convergence to the rational behavior, the higher is the probability that even quite naive consumers will learn the composition of their optimum consumption bundles.

  4. A financial market model with endogenous fundamental values through imitative behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we propose a financial market model with heterogeneous speculators, i.e., optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists that, respectively, overestimate and underestimate the true fundamental value due to ambiguity in the stock market, which prevents them from relying on the true fundamental value in their speculations. Indeed, we assume that agents use in its place fundamental values determined by an imitative process. Namely, in forming their beliefs, speculators consider the relative profits realized by optimists and pessimists and update their fundamental values proportionally to those relative profits. Moreover, differently from the majority of the literature on the topic, the stock price is determined by a nonlinear mechanism that prevents divergence issues. For our model, we study, via analytical and numerical tools, the stability of the unique steady state, its bifurcations, as well as the emergence of complex behaviors. We also investigate multistability phenomena, characterized by the presence of coexisting attractors.

  5. A financial market model with endogenous fundamental values through imitative behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we propose a financial market model with heterogeneous speculators, i.e., optimistic and pessimistic fundamentalists that, respectively, overestimate and underestimate the true fundamental value due to ambiguity in the stock market, which prevents them from relying on the true fundamental value in their speculations. Indeed, we assume that agents use in its place fundamental values determined by an imitative process. Namely, in forming their beliefs, speculators consider the relative profits realized by optimists and pessimists and update their fundamental values proportionally to those relative profits. Moreover, differently from the majority of the literature on the topic, the stock price is determined by a nonlinear mechanism that prevents divergence issues. For our model, we study, via analytical and numerical tools, the stability of the unique steady state, its bifurcations, as well as the emergence of complex behaviors. We also investigate multistability phenomena, characterized by the presence of coexisting attractors.

  6. 2-D magnetotelluric modeling using finite element method incorporating unstructured quadrilateral elements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarakorn, Weerachai

    2017-04-01

    In this research, the finite element (FE) method incorporating quadrilateral elements for solving 2-D MT modeling was presented. The finite element software was developed, employing a paving algorithm to generate the unstructured quadrilateral mesh. The accuracy, efficiency, reliability, and flexibility of our FE forward modeling are presented, compared and discussed. The numerical results indicate that our FE codes using an unstructured quadrilateral mesh provide good accuracy when the local mesh refinement is applied around sites and in the area of interest, with superior results when compared to other FE methods. The reliability of the developed codes was also confirmed when comparing both analytical solutions and COMMEMI2D model. Furthermore, our developed FE codes incorporating an unstructured quadrilateral mesh showed useful and powerful features such as handling irregular and complex subregions and providing local refinement of the mesh for a 2-D domain as closely as unstructured triangular mesh but it requires less number of elements in a mesh.

  7. In silico investigation of the short QT syndrome, using human ventricle models incorporating electromechanical coupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismail eAdeniran

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Genetic forms of the Short QT Syndrome (SQTS arise due to cardiac ion channel mutations leading to accelerated ventricular repolarisation, arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Results from experimental and simulation studies suggest that changes to refractoriness and tissue vulnerability produce a substrate favourable to re-entry. Potential electromechanical consequences of the SQTS are less well understood. The aim of this study was to utilize electromechanically coupled human ventricle models to explore electromechanical consequences of the SQTS. Methods and results: The Rice et al. mechanical model was coupled to the ten Tusscher et al. ventricular cell model. Previously validated K+ channel formulations for SQT variants 1 and 3 were incorporated. Functional effects of the SQTS mutations on transients, sarcomere length shortening and contractile force at the single cell level were evaluated with and without the consideration of stretch activated channel current (Isac. Without Isac, the SQTS mutations produced dramatic reductions in the amplitude of transients, sarcomere length shortening and contractile force. When Isac was incorporated, there was a considerable attenuation of the effects of SQTS-associated action potential shortening on Ca2+ transients, sarcomere shortening and contractile force. Single cell models were then incorporated into 3D human ventricular tissue models. The timing of maximum deformation was delayed in the SQTS setting compared to control. Conclusion: The incorporation of Isac appears to be an important consideration in modelling functional effects of SQT 1 and 3 mutations on cardiac electro-mechanical coupling. Whilst there is little evidence of profoundly impaired cardiac contractile function in SQTS patients, our 3D simulations correlate qualitatively with reported evidence for dissociation between ventricular repolarization and the end of mechanical systole.

  8. The minimum complexity of endogenous growth models: the role of physical resource flows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, Robert U. [INSEAD, Center for the Management of Environmental Resources, Fontainbleau, 77 (France)

    2001-09-01

    Conventional economic growth theory assumes that technological progress is exogenous and that resource consumption is a consequence, not a cause, of growth. This assumption is built into most, if not all, of the large-scale models used for policy guidance by governments. The reality is probably more complex. A 'growth engine' is a positive feedback loop involving declining costs and increasing demand. The neoclassical theory was based on population growth and the traditional savings-investment-capital accumulation mechanism. Solow added an exogenous residual called 'technical progress'. However, based on both qualitative and quantitative evidence, physical resource flows have been, and still remain, a major factor of production. Yet doubts remain because of the small share of direct payments to energy (and other natural resource) suppliers in the national accounts. This paper shows that the apparent inconsistency between (small) factor payments and the high correlation between physical resource (energy) inputs and outputs can be traced to an often forgotten simplification. The standard neoclassical growth model produces final products directly from labor and capital without allowing any role for consumable intermediates. Correcting for the omission of intermediates by introducing a two-sector or multi-sector production process multiplies the impact of primary resource inputs and accounts for the apparent inconsistency. (Author)

  9. Kinetic model of the inhibition of respiration by endogenous nitric oxide in intact cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Enara; Rodríguez-Juárez, Félix; Bellelli, Andrea; Gnaiger, Erich; Cadenas, Susana

    2010-05-01

    Nitric oxide (NO) inhibits mitochondrial respiration by decreasing the apparent affinity of cytochrome c oxidase (CcO) for oxygen. Using iNOS-transfected HEK 293 cells to achieve regulated intracellular NO production, we determined NO and O(2) concentrations and mitochondrial O(2) consumption by high-resolution respirometry over a range of O(2) concentrations down to nanomolar. Inhibition of respiration by NO was reversible, and complete NO removal recovered cell respiration above its routine reference values. Respiration was observed even at high NO concentrations, and the dependence of IC(50) on [O(2)] exhibits a characteristic but puzzling parabolic shape; both these features imply that CcO is protected from complete inactivation by NO and are likely to be physiologically relevant. We present a kinetic model of CcO inhibition by NO that efficiently predicts experimentally determined respiration at physiological O(2) and NO concentrations and under hypoxia, and accurately predicts the respiratory responses under hyperoxia. The model invokes competitive and uncompetitive inhibition by binding of NO to the reduced and oxidized forms of CcO, respectively, and suggests that dissociation of NO from reduced CcO may involve its O(2)-dependent oxidation. It also explains the non-linear dependence of IC(50) on O(2) concentration, and the hyperbolic increase of c(50) as a function of NO concentration.

  10. Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

    2014-08-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate

  11. Energy system investment model incorporating heat pumps with thermal storage in buildings and buffer tanks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Balyk, Olexandr

    2013-01-01

    options: passive heat storage in the building structure via radiator heating, active heat storage in concrete floors via floor heating, and use of thermal storage tanks for space heating and hot water. It is shown that the model is well qualified for analysing possibilities and system benefits...... be taken into account. In this study, we present a model that facilitates analysing individual heat pumps and complementing heat storages in integration with the energy system, while optimising both investments and operation. The model incorporates thermal building dynamics and covers various heat storage...

  12. Incorporating Mobility in Growth Modeling for Multilevel and Longitudinal Item Response Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, In-Hee; Wilson, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Multilevel data often cannot be represented by the strict form of hierarchy typically assumed in multilevel modeling. A common example is the case in which subjects change their group membership in longitudinal studies (e.g., students transfer schools; employees transition between different departments). In this study, cross-classified and multiple membership models for multilevel and longitudinal item response data (CCMM-MLIRD) are developed to incorporate such mobility, focusing on students' school change in large-scale longitudinal studies. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of incorrectly modeling school membership in the analysis of multilevel and longitudinal item response data. Two types of school mobility are described, and corresponding models are specified. Results of the simulation studies suggested that appropriate modeling of the two types of school mobility using the CCMM-MLIRD yielded good recovery of the parameters and improvement over models that did not incorporate mobility properly. In addition, the consequences of incorrectly modeling the school effects on the variance estimates of the random effects and the standard errors of the fixed effects depended upon mobility patterns and model specifications. Two sets of large-scale longitudinal data are analyzed to illustrate applications of the CCMM-MLIRD for each type of school mobility.

  13. Modeling fraud detection and the incorporation of forensic specialists in the audit process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakalauskaite, Dominyka

    Financial statement audits are still comparatively poor in fraud detection. Forensic specialists can play a significant role in increasing audit quality. In this paper, based on prior academic research, I develop a model of fraud detection and the incorporation of forensic specialists in the audit...... process. The intention of the model is to identify the reasons why the audit is weak in fraud detection and to provide the analytical framework to assess whether the incorporation of forensic specialists can help to improve it. The results show that such specialists can potentially improve the fraud...... detection in the audit, but might also cause some negative implications. Overall, even though fraud detection is one of the main topics in research there are very few studies done on the subject of how auditors co-operate with forensic specialists. Thus, the paper concludes with suggestions for further...

  14. Gold Incorporated Mesoporous Silica Thin Film Model Surface as a Robust SERS and Catalytically Active Substrate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anandakumari Chandrasekharan Sunil Sekhar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Ultra-small gold nanoparticles incorporated in mesoporous silica thin films with accessible pore channels perpendicular to the substrate are prepared by a modified sol-gel method. The simple and easy spin coating technique is applied here to make homogeneous thin films. The surface characterization using FESEM shows crack-free films with a perpendicular pore arrangement. The applicability of these thin films as catalysts as well as a robust SERS active substrate for model catalysis study is tested. Compared to bare silica film our gold incorporated silica, GSM-23F gave an enhancement factor of 103 for RhB with a laser source 633 nm. The reduction reaction of p-nitrophenol with sodium borohydride from our thin films shows a decrease in peak intensity corresponding to –NO2 group as time proceeds, confirming the catalytic activity. Such model surfaces can potentially bridge the material gap between a real catalytic system and surface science studies.

  15. Effect of valproic acid on endogenous neural stem cell proliferation in a rat model of spinal cord injury

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guoxin Nan; Ming Li; Weihong Liao; Jiaqiang Qin; Yujiang Cao; Youqiong Lu

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Valproic acid has been reported to decrease apoptosis, promote neuronal differentiation of brain-derived neural stem cells, and inhibit glial differentiation of brain-derived neural stem cells.OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of valproic acid on proliferation of endogenous neural sterm cells in a rat model of spinal cord injury.DESIGN, TIME AND SETTING: A randomized, controlled, neuropathological study was performed at Key Laboratory of Trauma, Buming, and Combined Injury, Research Institute of Surgery, Daping Hospital, the Third Military Medical University of Chinese PLA between November 2005 and February 2007.MATERIALS: A total of 45 adult, Wistar rats were randomly divided into sham surgery (n=5), injury(n=20), and valproic acid (n=20) groups. Valproic acid was provided by Sigma, USA.METHODS: Injury was induced to the T10 segment in the injury and valproic acid groups using the metal weight-dropping method. The spinal cord was exposed without contusion in the sham surgery group. Rats in the valproic acid group were intraperitoneally injected with 150 mg/kg valproic acid every 12 hours (twice in total).MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Nestin expression (5 mm from injured center) was detected using immunohistochemistry at 1, 3 days, 1, 4, and 8 weeks post-injury.RESULTS: Low expression of nestin was observed in the cytoplasm, but rarely in the white matter of the spinal cord in the sham surgery group. In the injury group, nestin expression was observed in the ependyma and pia mater one day after injury, and expression reached a peak at 1 week (P<0.05).Expression was primarily observed in the ependymal cells, which expanded towards the white and gray matter of the spinal cord. Nestin expression rapidly decreased by 4 weeks post-injury, and had almost completely disappeared by 8 weeks. At 24 hours after spinal cord injury, there was nosignificant difference in nestin expression between the valproic acid and injury groups. At 1 week,there was a significant

  16. Impairment of bidirectional synaptic plasticity in the striatum of a mouse model of DYT1 dystonia: role of endogenous acetylcholine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martella, Giuseppina; Tassone, Annalisa; Sciamanna, Giuseppe; Platania, Paola; Cuomo, Dario; Viscomi, Maria Teresa; Bonsi, Paola; Cacci, Emanuele; Biagioni, Stefano; Usiello, Alessandro; Bernardi, Giorgio; Sharma, Nutan

    2009-01-01

    DYT1 dystonia is a severe form of inherited dystonia, characterized by involuntary twisting movements and abnormal postures. It is linked to a deletion in the dyt1 gene, resulting in a mutated form of the protein torsinA. The penetrance for dystonia is incomplete, but both clinically affected and non-manifesting carriers of the DYT1 mutation exhibit impaired motor learning and evidence of altered motor plasticity. Here, we characterized striatal glutamatergic synaptic plasticity in transgenic mice expressing either the normal human torsinA or its mutant form, in comparison to non-transgenic (NT) control mice. Medium spiny neurons recorded from both NT and normal human torsinA mice exhibited normal long-term depression (LTD), whereas in mutant human torsinA littermates LTD could not be elicited. In addition, although long-term potentiation (LTP) could be induced in all the mice, it was greater in magnitude in mutant human torsinA mice. Low-frequency stimulation (LFS) can revert potentiated synapses to resting levels, a phenomenon termed synaptic depotentiation. LFS induced synaptic depotentiation (SD) both in NT and normal human torsinA mice, but not in mutant human torsinA mice. Since anti-cholinergic drugs are an effective medical therapeutic option for the treatment of human dystonia, we reasoned that an excess in endogenous acetylcholine could underlie the synaptic plasticity impairment. Indeed, both LTD and SD were rescued in mutant human torsinA mice either by lowering endogenous acetylcholine levels or by antagonizing muscarinic M1 receptors. The presence of an enhanced acetylcholine tone was confirmed by the observation that acetylcholinesterase activity was significantly increased in the striatum of mutant human torsinA mice, as compared with both normal human torsinA and NT littermates. Moreover, we found similar alterations of synaptic plasticity in muscarinic M2/M4 receptor knockout mice, in which an increased striatal acetylcholine level has been

  17. Going beyond the unitary curve: incorporating richer cognition into agent-based water resources models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kock, B. E.

    2008-12-01

    The increased availability and understanding of agent-based modeling technology and techniques provides a unique opportunity for water resources modelers, allowing them to go beyond traditional behavioral approaches from neoclassical economics, and add rich cognition to social-hydrological models. Agent-based models provide for an individual focus, and the easier and more realistic incorporation of learning, memory and other mechanisms for increased cognitive sophistication. We are in an age of global change impacting complex water resources systems, and social responses are increasingly recognized as fundamentally adaptive and emergent. In consideration of this, water resources models and modelers need to better address social dynamics in a manner beyond the capabilities of neoclassical economics theory and practice. However, going beyond the unitary curve requires unique levels of engagement with stakeholders, both to elicit the richer knowledge necessary for structuring and parameterizing agent-based models, but also to make sure such models are appropriately used. With the aim of encouraging epistemological and methodological convergence in the agent-based modeling of water resources, we have developed a water resources-specific cognitive model and an associated collaborative modeling process. Our cognitive model emphasizes efficiency in architecture and operation, and capacity to adapt to different application contexts. We describe a current application of this cognitive model and modeling process in the Arkansas Basin of Colorado. In particular, we highlight the potential benefits of, and challenges to, using more sophisticated cognitive models in agent-based water resources models.

  18. Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment models

    OpenAIRE

    Kok, de, JMM John; Titus, Milan; Wind, Herman G.

    2000-01-01

    Decision-support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the co...

  19. ENDOGENEITY OF INDONESIAN MONEY SUPPLY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meutia Safrina Rachma

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available There has been a long debate about the endogeneity of money supply. The main objective of this article is to identify whether money supply in Indonesia is an exogenous or an endogenous variable. Using a Vector Autoregressive model and monthly data 1997(5-2010(6, the estimation result shows that money supply in Indonesia is an endogenous variable. The movement of broad money supply does influence the movement of base money and Consumer Price Index. Consequently, the central bank does not have control power on money supply. The bank is only able to maintain the stability and control the movement of broad money supply. Keywords: Endogenous variable, money supply, vector autoregressionJEL classification numbers: E51, E52, E58

  20. Incorporation of stochastic engineering models as prior information in Bayesian medical device trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddad, Tarek; Himes, Adam; Thompson, Laura; Irony, Telba; Nair, Rajesh

    2017-03-10

    Evaluation of medical devices via clinical trial is often a necessary step in the process of bringing a new product to market. In recent years, device manufacturers are increasingly using stochastic engineering models during the product development process. These models have the capability to simulate virtual patient outcomes. This article presents a novel method based on the power prior for augmenting a clinical trial using virtual patient data. To properly inform clinical evaluation, the virtual patient model must simulate the clinical outcome of interest, incorporating patient variability, as well as the uncertainty in the engineering model and in its input parameters. The number of virtual patients is controlled by a discount function which uses the similarity between modeled and observed data. This method is illustrated by a case study of cardiac lead fracture. Different discount functions are used to cover a wide range of scenarios in which the type I error rates and power vary for the same number of enrolled patients. Incorporation of engineering models as prior knowledge in a Bayesian clinical trial design can provide benefits of decreased sample size and trial length while still controlling type I error rate and power.

  1. Incorporation of ICRP-116 eye model into ICRP reference polygonal surface phantoms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, Thang Tat; Yeom, Yeon Soo; Han, Min Cheol; Wang, Zhao Jun; Kim, Han Sung; Kim, Chan Hyeong [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-04-15

    The ICRP adopted a detailed stylized eye model developed by Behrens et al. for evaluation of lens dose coefficients released in ICRP publication 116. However, the dose coefficients were calculated with the stylized eye model modelled into the head of mathematical phantoms not the ICRP reference phantoms, which may cause inconsistency in lens dose assessment. In order to keep consistency in the lens dose assessment, the present study incorporates the ICRP-116 eye model into the currently developing polygonal-mesh-type ICRP reference phantoms which are being converted from the voxel-type ICRP reference phantoms. Then, lens dose values were calculated and compared with those calculated with the mathematical phantom to see how it affects lens doses. The present study incorporated the ICRP-116 eye model into the currently developing polygonal-mesh-type ICRP reference phantoms and showed significant dose differences when compared with ICRP-116 data calculated with the mathematical phantom. We believe that the ICRP reference phantoms including the detailed eye model provide more consistent assessment for eye lens dose.

  2. A code reviewer assignment model incorporating the competence differences and participant preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yanqing

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A good assignment of code reviewers can effectively utilize the intellectual resources, assure code quality and improve programmers’ skills in software development. However, little research on reviewer assignment of code review has been found. In this study, a code reviewer assignment model is created based on participants’ preference to reviewing assignment. With a constraint of the smallest size of a review group, the model is optimized to maximize review outcomes and avoid the negative impact of “mutual admiration society”. This study shows that the reviewer assignment strategies incorporating either the reviewers’ preferences or the authors’ preferences get much improvement than a random assignment. The strategy incorporating authors’ preference makes higher improvement than that incorporating reviewers’ preference. However, when the reviewers’ and authors’ preference matrixes are merged, the improvement becomes moderate. The study indicates that the majority of the participants have a strong wish to work with reviewers and authors having highest competence. If we want to satisfy the preference of both reviewers and authors at the same time, the overall improvement of learning outcomes may be not the best.

  3. Fully-coupled magnetoelastic model for Galfenol alloys incorporating eddy current losses and thermal relaxation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Phillip G.; Dapino, Marcelo J.

    2008-03-01

    A general framework is developed to model the nonlinear magnetization and strain response of cubic magnetostrictive materials to 3-D dynamic magnetic fields and 3-D stresses. Dynamic eddy current losses and inertial stresses are modeled by coupling Maxwell's equations to Newton's second law through a nonlinear constitutive model. The constitutive model is derived from continuum thermodynamics and incorporates rate-dependent thermal effects. The framework is implemented in 1-D to describe a Tonpilz transducer in both dynamic actuation and sensing modes. The model is shown to qualitatively describe the effect of increase in magnetic hysteresis with increasing frequency, the shearing of the magnetization loops with increasing stress, and the decrease in the magnetostriction with increasing load stiffness.

  4. Global dynamics of a PDE model for aedes aegypti mosquitoe incorporating female sexual preference

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study the long time dynamics of a reaction diffusion system, describing the spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are the primary cause of dengue infection. The system incorporates a control attempt via the sterile insect technique. The model incorporates female mosquitoes sexual preference for wild males over sterile males. We show global existence of strong solution for the system. We then derive uniform estimates to prove the existence of a global attractor in L-2(Omega), for the system. The attractor is shown to be L-infinity(Omega) regular and posess state of extinction, if the injection of sterile males is large enough. We also provide upper bounds on the Hausdorff and fractal dimensions of the attractor.

  5. A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects

    CERN Document Server

    Mitchell, Lewis

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza, however quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of "big data" coming from online social media and the like, large volumes of data on a population's engagement with mass media during an epidemic are becoming available to researchers. In this study we combine an online data set comprising millions of shared messages relating to influenza with traditional surveillance data on flu activity to suggest a functional form for the relationship between the two. Using this data we present a simple deterministic model for influenza dynamics incorporating media effects, and show that such a model helps explain the dynamics of historical influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, through model selection we show that the proposed media function fits historical data better than other media functions proposed in earlier studies.

  6. Towards a functional model of mental disorders incorporating the laws of thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, George C; McKenzie, Karen

    2013-05-01

    The current paper presents the hypothesis that the understanding of mental disorders can be advanced by incorporating the laws of thermodynamics, specifically relating to energy conservation and energy transfer. These ideas, along with the introduction of the notion that entropic activities are symptomatic of inefficient energy transfer or disorder, were used to propose a model of understanding mental ill health as resulting from the interaction of entropy, capacity and work (environmental demands). The model was applied to Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, and was shown to be compatible with current thinking about this condition, as well as emerging models of mental disorders as complex networks. A key implication of the proposed model is that it argues that all mental disorders require a systemic functional approach, with the advantage that it offers a number of routes into the assessment, formulation and treatment for mental health problems.

  7. Incorporation of the Driver’s Personality Profile in an Agent Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mian Muhammad Mubasher

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban traffic flow is a complex system. Behavior of an individual driver can have butterfly effect which can become root cause of an emergent phenomenon such as congestion or accident. Interaction of drivers with each other and the surrounding environment forms the dynamics of traffic flow. Hence global effects of traffic flow depend upon the behavior of each individual driver. Due to several applications of driver models in serious games, urban traffic planning and simulations, study of a realistic driver model is important. Hhence cognitive models of a driver agent are required. In order to address this challenge concepts from cognitive science and psychology are employed to design a computational model of driver cognition which is capable of incorporating law abidance and social norms using big five personality profile.

  8. A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Lewis; Ross, Joshua V

    2016-10-01

    Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza; however, quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of 'big data' coming from online social media and the like, large volumes of data on a population's engagement with mass media during an epidemic are becoming available to researchers. In this study, we combine an online dataset comprising millions of shared messages relating to influenza with traditional surveillance data on flu activity to suggest a functional form for the relationship between the two. Using this data, we present a simple deterministic model for influenza dynamics incorporating media effects, and show that such a model helps explain the dynamics of historical influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, through model selection we show that the proposed media function fits historical data better than other media functions proposed in earlier studies.

  9. A predictive model of community assembly that incorporates intraspecific trait variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laughlin, Daniel C; Joshi, Chaitanya; van Bodegom, Peter M; Bastow, Zachary A; Fulé, Peter Z

    2012-11-01

    Community assembly involves two antagonistic processes that select functional traits in opposite directions. Environmental filtering tends to increase the functional similarity of species within communities leading to trait convergence, whereas competition tends to limit the functional similarity of species within communities leading to trait divergence. Here, we introduce a new hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates intraspecific trait variation into a predictive framework to unify classic coexistence theory and evolutionary biology with recent trait-based approaches. Model predictions exhibited a significant positive correlation (r = 0.66) with observed relative abundances along a 10 °C gradient in mean annual temperature. The model predicted the correct dominant species in half of the plots, and accurately reproduced species' temperature optimums. The framework is generalizable to any ecosystem as it can accommodate any species pool, any set of functional traits and multiple environmental gradients, and it eliminates some of the criticisms associated with recent trait-based community assembly models.

  10. Lifetime growth in wild meerkats: incorporating life history and environmental factors into a standard growth model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    English, Sinéad; Bateman, Andrew W; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

    2012-05-01

    Lifetime records of changes in individual size or mass in wild animals are scarce and, as such, few studies have attempted to model variation in these traits across the lifespan or to assess the factors that affect them. However, quantifying lifetime growth is essential for understanding trade-offs between growth and other life history parameters, such as reproductive performance or survival. Here, we used model selection based on information theory to measure changes in body mass over the lifespan of wild meerkats, and compared the relative fits of several standard growth models (monomolecular, von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, logistic and Richards). We found that meerkats exhibit monomolecular growth, with the best model incorporating separate growth rates before and after nutritional independence, as well as effects of season and total rainfall in the previous nine months. Our study demonstrates how simple growth curves may be improved by considering life history and environmental factors, which may be particularly relevant when quantifying growth patterns in wild populations.

  11. A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Joshua V.

    2016-01-01

    Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza; however, quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of ‘big data’ coming from online social media and the like, large volumes of data on a population’s engagement with mass media during an epidemic are becoming available to researchers. In this study, we combine an online dataset comprising millions of shared messages relating to influenza with traditional surveillance data on flu activity to suggest a functional form for the relationship between the two. Using this data, we present a simple deterministic model for influenza dynamics incorporating media effects, and show that such a model helps explain the dynamics of historical influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, through model selection we show that the proposed media function fits historical data better than other media functions proposed in earlier studies. PMID:27853563

  12. The Role of Endogenous Carbon Monoxide in the Hypoxic Vascular Remodeling of Rat Model of Hypoxic Pulmonary Hypertension

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    甄国华; 张珍祥; 徐永健

    2003-01-01

    We investigated the expression of heme oxygenase-1 (HO-l) gene and production of endogenous carbon monoxide (CO) in the rat lung tissue at different time points of chronic hypoxic pulmonary hypertension and the effect of hemin on the expression of HO-1 gene and pulmonary hypertension. A rat model of hypoxic pulmonary hypertension was recreated by exposure to intermittent normobaric hypoxic environment (10 % O2 ). Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to determine the level of HO-1 mRNA in the rat lung tissue and double wave length spectrophotometry was used to evaluate the quantity of COHb in arterial blood. Cardiac catheterization was employed to measure the right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) and HE staining was performed in dissected lung tissue to observe the pathological changes of the intra-acinar pulmonary arteries (IAPA). It was found that (1) There was a low level of HO-1 mRNA in normal rat lung tissue, but the level of HO-1 mRNA increased by 2-4 times in the lung tissue of hypoxic rats (P<0.01). The quantity of COHb was 2-3 times those of control group (P<0.01or P<0. 05). These were accompanied by the increased of RVSP and the thickened IAPA; (2) Hemin could keep the HO-1 mRNA and COHb in the hypoxic rat lung tissue at a high level, and partially suppressed the increase of rat RVSP, thereby ameliorating the pathological changes of IAPA.In conclusion, the upregulation of the expression of HO-1 gene and production of CO in the rat lung of hypoxic pulmonary hypertension plays a role of inhibition in the development of hypoxic pulmonary hypertension. Hemin has a therapeutic effect on hypoxic pulmonary hypertension.

  13. Incorporating grazing into an eco-hydrologic model: Simulating coupled human and natural systems in rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. J.; Liu, M.; Tague, C.; Choate, J. S.; Evans, R. D.; Johnson, K. A.; Adam, J. C.

    2013-12-01

    Rangelands provide an opportunity to investigate the coupled feedbacks between human activities and natural ecosystems. These areas comprise at least one-third of the Earth's surface and provide ecological support for birds, insects, wildlife and agricultural animals including grazing lands for livestock. Capturing the interactions among water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles within the context of regional scale patterns of climate and management is important to understand interactions, responses, and feedbacks between rangeland systems and humans, as well as provide relevant information to stakeholders and policymakers. The overarching objective of this research is to understand the full consequences, intended and unintended, of human activities and climate over time in rangelands by incorporating dynamics related to rangeland management into an eco-hydrologic model that also incorporates biogeochemical and soil processes. Here we evaluate our model over ungrazed and grazed sites for different rangeland ecosystems. The Regional Hydro-ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) is a process-based, watershed-scale model that couples water with carbon and nitrogen cycles. Climate, soil, vegetation, and management effects within the watershed are represented in a nested landscape hierarchy to account for heterogeneity and the lateral movement of water and nutrients. We incorporated a daily time-series of plant biomass loss from rangeland to represent grazing. The TRY Plant Trait Database was used to parameterize genera of shrubs and grasses in different rangeland types, such as tallgrass prairie, Intermountain West cold desert, and shortgrass steppe. In addition, other model parameters captured the reallocation of carbon and nutrients after grass defoliation. Initial simulations were conducted at the Curlew Valley site in northern Utah, a former International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Desert Biome site. We found that grasses were most sensitive to model parameters affecting

  14. Incorporating risk attitude into Markov-process decision models: importance for individual decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cher, D J; Miyamoto, J; Lenert, L A

    1997-01-01

    Most decision models published in the medical literature take a risk-neutral perspective. Under risk neutrality, the utility of a gamble is equivalent to its expected value and the marginal utility of living a given unit of time is the same regardless of when it occurs. Most patients, however, are not risk-neutral. Not only does risk aversion affect decision analyses when tradeoffs between short- and long-term survival are involved, it also affects the interpretation of time-tradeoff measures of health-state utility. The proportional time tradeoff under- or overestimates the disutility of an inferior health state, depending on whether the patient is risk-seeking or risk-averse (it is unbiased if the patient is risk-neutral). The authors review how risk attitude with respect to gambles for survival duration can be incorporated into decision models using the framework of risk-adjusted quality-adjusted life years (RA-QALYs). They present a simple extension of this framework that allows RA-QALYs to be calculated for Markov-process decision models. Using a previously published Markov-process model of surgical vs expectant treatment for benign prostatic hypertrophy (BPH), they show how attitude towards risk affects the expected number of QALYs calculated by the model. In this model, under risk neutrality, surgery was the preferred option. Under mild risk aversion, expectant treatment was the preferred option. Risk attitude is an important aspect of preferences that should be incorporated into decision models where one treatment option has upfront risks of morbidity or mortality.

  15. A non-classical Mindlin plate model incorporating microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, X.-L.; Zhang, G. Y.

    2016-07-01

    A non-classical model for a Mindlin plate resting on an elastic foundation is developed in a general form using a modified couple stress theory, a surface elasticity theory and a two-parameter Winkler-Pasternak foundation model. It includes all five kinematic variables possible for a Mindlin plate. The equations of motion and the complete boundary conditions are obtained simultaneously through a variational formulation based on Hamilton's principle, and the microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects are treated in a unified manner. The newly developed model contains one material length-scale parameter to describe the microstructure effect, three surface elastic constants to account for the surface energy effect, and two foundation parameters to capture the foundation effect. The current non-classical plate model reduces to its classical elasticity-based counterpart when the microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects are all suppressed. In addition, the new model includes the Mindlin plate models considering the microstructure dependence or the surface energy effect or the foundation influence alone as special cases, recovers the Kirchhoff plate model incorporating the microstructure, surface energy and foundation effects, and degenerates to the Timoshenko beam model including the microstructure effect. To illustrate the new Mindlin plate model, the static bending and free vibration problems of a simply supported rectangular plate are analytically solved by directly applying the general formulae derived.

  16. Extension of the QUASAR river water quality model to incorporate dead-zone mixing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Lees

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available A modification to the well-known water quality model 'Quality Simulation Along River Systems' (QUASAR is presented, extending its utility to real-time forecasting applications such as the management and control of pollution incidents. Two aggregated dead-zone (ADZ parameters, namely time delay and dispersive fraction, are incorporated into the existing model formulation, extending the current continuously stirred tank reactor based model processes to account for advective and active mixing volume dispersive processes. The resulting river water quality model combines the strengths of the QUASAR model, which has proven non-conservative pollutant modelling capabilities, with the accurate advection and dispersion characterisation of the ADZ model. A discrete-time mathematical representation of the governing equations is developed that enables efficient system identification methods of parameter estimation to be utilised. The enhanced water quality model and associated methods of parameter estimation are validated using data from tracer experiments conducted on the River Mimram. The revised model produces accurate predictions of observed concentration-time curves for conservative substances.

  17. Extension of the QUASAR river water quality model to incorporate dead-zone mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lees, M. J.; Camacho, L.; Whitehead, P.

    A modification to the well-known water quality model "Quality Simulation Along River Systems" (QUASAR) is presented, extending its utility to real-time forecasting applications such as the management and control of pollution incidents. Two aggregated dead-zone (ADZ) parameters, namely time delay and dispersive fraction, are incorporated into the existing model formulation, extending the current continuously stirred tank reactor based model processes to account for advective and active mixing volume dispersive processes. The resulting river water quality model combines the strengths of the QUASAR model, which has proven non-conservative pollutant modelling capabilities, with the accurate advection and dispersion characterisation of the ADZ model. A discrete-time mathematical representation of the governing equations is developed that enables efficient system identification methods of parameter estimation to be utilised. The enhanced water quality model and associated methods of parameter estimation are validated using data from tracer experiments conducted on the River Mimram. The revised model produces accurate predictions of observed concentration-time curves for conservative substances.

  18. A molecular dynamics model of rhodamine-labeled phospholipid incorporated into a lipid bilayer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyrychenko, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Phospholipids, labeled covalently by a fluorescent dye, are commonly applied in membrane biophysics. In this work, a molecular dynamics model of sulforhodamine attached covalently to a headgroup of 1,2-dipalmitoyl- sn-glycero-3-phosphoethanolamine is developed. It is found that the incorporation of rhodamine-labeled phospholipids into a DPPC bilayer at the low concentration results in small perturbation of the bilayer. In the dye-labeled membrane, the sulforhodamine moiety binds favorably to a polar membrane interface, forming the tilt angle 44° ± 8° to the bilayer normal. The deep location and binding of a bulk sulforhodamine fluorophore lead, therefore, to some 'softening' of the membrane structure.

  19. Effects of leukemia inhibitory factor and basic fibroblast growth factor on free radicals and endogenous stem cell proliferation in a mouse model of cerebral infarction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weihui Huang; Yadan Li; Yufeng Lin; Xue Ye; Dawei Zang

    2012-01-01

    The present study established a mouse model of cerebral infarction by middle cerebral artery occlusion,and monitored the effect of 25 μg/kg leukemia inhibitory factor and (or) basic fibroblast growth factor administration 2 hours after model establishment.Results showed that following administration,the number of endogenous neural stem cells in the infarct area significantly increased,malondialdehyde content in brain tissue homogenates significantly decreased,nitric oxide content,glutathione peroxidase and superoxide dismutase activity significantly elevated,and mouse motor function significantly improved as confirmed by the rotarod and bar grab tests.In particular,the effect of leukemia inhibitory factor in combination with basic fibroblast growth factor was the most significant.Results indicate that leukemia inhibitory factor and basic fibroblast growth factor can improve the microenvironment after cerebral infarction by altering free radical levels,improving the quantity of endogenous neural stem cells,and promoting neurological function of mice with cerebral infarction.

  20. Non-Newtonian fluid model incorporated into elastohydrodynamic lubrication of rectangular contacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, B. O.; Hamrock, B. J.

    1984-01-01

    A procedure is outlined for the numerical solution of the complete elastohydrodynamic lubrication of rectangular contacts incorporating a non-Newtonian fluid model. The approach uses a Newtonian model as long as the shear stress is less than a limiting shear stress. If the shear stress exceeds the limiting value, the shear stress is set equal to the limiting value. The numerical solution requires the coupled solution of the pressure, film shape, and fluid rheology equations from the inlet to the outlet. Isothermal and no-side-leakage assumptions were imposed in the analysis. The influence of dimensionless speed, load, materials, and sliding velocity and limiting-shear-strength proportionality constant on dimensionless minimum film thickness was investigated. Fourteen cases were used in obtaining the minimum-film-thickness equation for an elastohydrodynamically lubricated rectangular contact incorporating a non-Newtonian fluid model. Computer plots are also presented that indicate in detail pressure distribution, film shape, shear stress at the surfaces, and flow throughout the conjunction.

  1. Evolutionary demography of iteroparous plants: incorporating non-lethal costs of reproduction into integral projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Tom E X; Williams, Jennifer L; Jongejans, Eelke; Brys, Rein; Jacquemyn, Hans

    2012-07-22

    Understanding the selective forces that shape reproductive strategies is a central goal of evolutionary ecology. Selection on the timing of reproduction is well studied in semelparous organisms because the cost of reproduction (death) can be easily incorporated into demographic models. Iteroparous organisms also exhibit delayed reproduction and experience reproductive costs, although these are not necessarily lethal. How non-lethal costs shape iteroparous life histories remains unresolved. We analysed long-term demographic data for the iteroparous orchid Orchis purpurea from two habitat types (light and shade). In both the habitats, flowering plants had lower growth rates and this cost was greater for smaller plants. We detected an additional growth cost of fruit production in the light habitat. We incorporated these non-lethal costs into integral projection models to identify the flowering size that maximizes fitness. In both habitats, observed flowering sizes were well predicted by the models. We also estimated optimal parameters for size-dependent flowering effort, but found a strong mismatch with the observed flower production. Our study highlights the role of context-dependent non-lethal reproductive costs as selective forces in the evolution of iteroparous life histories, and provides a novel and broadly applicable approach to studying the evolutionary demography of iteroparous organisms.

  2. Evolutionary Models of Super-Earths and Mini-Neptunes Incorporating Cooling and Mass Loss

    CERN Document Server

    Howe, Alex R

    2015-01-01

    We construct models of the structural evolution of super-Earth- and mini-Neptune-type exoplanets with hydrogen-helium envelopes, incorporating radiative cooling and XUV-driven mass loss. We conduct a parameter study of these models, focusing on initial mass, radius, and envelope mass fractions, as well as orbital distance, metallicity, and the specific prescription for mass loss. From these calculations, we investigate how the observed masses and radii of exoplanets today relate to the distribution of their initial conditions. Orbital distance and initial envelope mass fraction are the most important factors determining planetary evolution, particular radius evolution. Initial mass also becomes important below a "turnoff mass," which varies with orbital distance, with mass-radius curves being approximately flat for higher masses. Initial radius is the least important parameter we study, with very little difference between the hot start and cold start limits after an age of 100 Myr. Model sets with no mass los...

  3. Agent-Based Evacuation Model Incorporating Fire Scene and Building Geometry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Fangqin; REN Aizhu

    2008-01-01

    A comprehensive description of the key factors affecting evacuations at fire scones is necessary for accurate simulations.An agent-based simulation model which incorporates the fire scene and the building geometry is developed using a fire dynamics simulator (FDS) based on the computational fluid dynamics and geographic information system (GIS) data to model the occupant response.The building entities are generated for FDS simulation while the spatial analysis on GIS data represents the occupant's knowledge of the building.The influence of the fire is based on a hazard assessment of the combustion products.The agent behavior and decisions are affected by environmental features and the fire field.A case study demonstrates that the evacuation model effectively simulates the coexistence and interactions of the major factors including occupants,building geometry,and fire disaster during the evacuation.The results can be used for the assessments of building designs regarding fire safety.

  4. Hidden Markov Models Incorporating Fuzzy Measures and Integrals for Protein Sequence Identification and Alignment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Niranjan P.Bidargaddi; Madlhu Chetty; Joarder Kamruzzaman

    2008-01-01

    Profile hidden Markov models (HMMs) based on classical HMMs have been widely applied for protein sequence identification. The formulation of the forward and backward variables in profile HMMs is made under statistical independence assumption of the probability theory. We propose a fuzzy profile HMM to overcome the limitations of that assumption and to achieve an improved alignment for protein sequences belonging to a given family. The proposed model fuzzifies the forward and backward variables by incorporating Sugeno fuzzy measures and Choquet integrals, thus further extends the generalized HMM. Based on the fuzzified forwardand backward variables, we propose a fuzzy Baum-Welch parameter estimation al-gorithm for profiles. The strong correlations and the sequence preference involved in the protein structures make this fuzzy architecture based model as a suitable candidate for building profiles of a given family, since the fuzzy set can handle uncertainties better than classical methods.

  5. Some considerations concerning the challenge of incorporating social variables into epidemiological models of infectious disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Tony; Fournié, Guillaume; Gupta, Sunetra; Seeley, Janet

    2015-01-01

    Incorporation of 'social' variables into epidemiological models remains a challenge. Too much detail and models cease to be useful; too little and the very notion of infection - a highly social process in human populations - may be considered with little reference to the social. The French sociologist Émile Durkheim proposed that the scientific study of society required identification and study of 'social currents'. Such 'currents' are what we might today describe as 'emergent properties', specifiable variables appertaining to individuals and groups, which represent the perspectives of social actors as they experience the environment in which they live their lives. Here we review the ways in which one particular emergent property, hope, relevant to a range of epidemiological situations, might be used in epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases in human populations. We also indicate how such an approach might be extended to include a range of other potential emergent properties to represent complex social and economic processes bearing on infectious disease transmission.

  6. Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Alex; Mokany, Karel; Catullo, Renee; Hoffmann, Ary; Kellermann, Vanessa; Sgrò, Carla; McEvey, Shane; Ferrier, Simon

    2016-12-01

    Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  7. Affordances perspective and grammaticalization: Incorporation of language, environment and users in the model of semantic paths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Andrason

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The present paper demonstrates that insights from the affordances perspective can contribute to developing a more comprehensive model of grammaticalization. The authors argue that the grammaticalization process is afforded differently depending on the values of three contributing parameters: the factor (schematized as a qualitative-quantitative map or a wave of a gram, environment (understood as the structure of the stream along which the gram travels, and actor (narrowed to certain cognitive-epistemological capacities of the users, in particular to the fact of being a native speaker. By relating grammaticalization to these three parameters and by connecting it to the theory of optimization, the proposed model offers a better approximation to realistic cases of grammaticalization: The actor and environment are overtly incorporated into the model and divergences from canonical grammaticalization paths are both tolerated and explicable.

  8. A Fibrocontractive Mechanochemical Model of Dermal Wound Closure Incorporating Realistic Growth Factor Kinetics

    KAUST Repository

    Murphy, Kelly E.

    2012-01-13

    Fibroblasts and their activated phenotype, myofibroblasts, are the primary cell types involved in the contraction associated with dermal wound healing. Recent experimental evidence indicates that the transformation from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts involves two distinct processes: The cells are stimulated to change phenotype by the combined actions of transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) and mechanical tension. This observation indicates a need for a detailed exploration of the effect of the strong interactions between the mechanical changes and growth factors in dermal wound healing. We review the experimental findings in detail and develop a model of dermal wound healing that incorporates these phenomena. Our model includes the interactions between TGFβ and collagenase, providing a more biologically realistic form for the growth factor kinetics than those included in previous mechanochemical descriptions. A comparison is made between the model predictions and experimental data on human dermal wound healing and all the essential features are well matched. © 2012 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  9. Who influenced inflation persistence in China? A comparative analysis of the standard CIA model and CIA model with endogenous money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liao Ying

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we examine the influencing factors of inflation persistence in China’s economy using the DSGE approach. Two monetary DSGE models are estimated, namely, a standard CIA model and a CIA model with a Taylor rule. This article uses the Bayesian method to estimate the model, and the estimated and inferred results are credible due to the Markov chain reaching convergence. The results show that the augmented model outperforms the standard CIA model in terms of capturing inflation persistence. Further studies show that inflation persistence mainly comes from the persistence of the money supply, while money supply uncertainty, the reaction coefficient of monetary growth to productivity, productivity persistence and productivity uncertainty have a smaller impact on inflation persistence. Changes of monetary policy have little effect on inflation persistence.

  10. A Direct Method for Incorporating Experimental Data into Multiscale Coarse-Grained Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenhoffer-Lafage, Thomas; White, Andrew D; Voth, Gregory A

    2016-05-10

    To extract meaningful data from molecular simulations, it is necessary to incorporate new experimental observations as they become available. Recently, a new method was developed for incorporating experimental observations into molecular simulations, called experiment directed simulation (EDS), which utilizes a maximum entropy argument to bias an existing model to agree with experimental observations while changing the original model by a minimal amount. However, there is no discussion in the literature of whether or not the minimal bias systematically and generally improves the model by creating agreement with the experiment. In this work, we show that the relative entropy of the biased system with respect to an ideal target is always reduced by the application of a minimal bias, such as the one utilized by EDS. Using all-atom simulations that have been biased with EDS, one can then easily and rapidly improve a bottom-up multiscale coarse-grained (MS-CG) model without the need for a time-consuming reparametrization of the underlying atomistic force field. Furthermore, the improvement given by the many-body interactions introduced by the EDS bias can be maintained after being projected down to effective two-body MS-CG interactions. The result of this analysis is a new paradigm in coarse-grained modeling and simulation in which the "bottom-up" and "top-down" approaches are combined within a single, rigorous formalism based on statistical mechanics. The utility of building the resulting EDS-MS-CG models is demonstrated on two molecular systems: liquid methanol and ethylene carbonate.

  11. Endogenous erythropoietin level and effects of exogenous erythropoietin in a rat model of blunt chest trauma-induced pulmonary contusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakan, Vedat; Kurutaş, Ergül Belge; Çıralık, Harun; Gül, Mustafa; Çelik, Ahmet

    2016-07-01

    The present objective was to investigate endogen erythropoietin (EPO) level and relationship to oxidative stress within the first 24 hours of blunt chest trauma-induced pulmo-nary contusion (PCn) in a rat model. Thirty-five rats were divided into 3 groups. In the baseline control group (BC, n=7), rats were uninjured and untreated. In the positive control group (PC, n=21) rats were injured but untreated. In the EPO-24 group (n=7), rats were injured and a single dose of intra-peritoneal EPO (5000 IU/kg) was administered immediately after lung injury. The PC group was divided into 3 subgroups: PC-6 (n=7), PC-12 (n=7), and PC-24 (n=7). The BC group was subjected to thoracotomy, and the right lung was harvested. The PC subgroups were eu-thanized at 6, 12, and 24 hours after injury, respectively. The EPO-24 group was euthanized at the 24th hour after injury. Lung samples were obtained, levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) and EPO were analyzed, and activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) were then measured in homogenized lung tissue samples. Histologic damage to lung tissue in the BC group, the EPO-24 group, and PC subgroup euthanized at the 24th hour after injury were scored by a single pathologist blinded to group assignation. Mean MDA levels, as well as SOD and CAT activities, of the BC and EPO-24 groups were significantly lower than those of the PC group (p<0.005). Mean EPO concentra-tion of the PC group was significantly higher than that of the BC group (p<0.005). Lung tis-sue damage scores measured at 24 hours after injury were significantly lower in the EPO-24 group than in the PC group (p<0.005). In the present PCn rat model, EPO concentrations, as well as SOD and CAT levels, were high in lung tissue, when measured at 24 hours after PCn. When administered early after chest trauma, EPO significantly attenuated oxidative damage and tissue damage in the early phase, as assessed by biochemical markers and histologic scoring.

  12. Incorporating animal behavior into seed dispersal models: implications for seed shadows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Sabrina E; Portnoy, Stephen; Augspurger, Carol K

    2006-12-01

    Seed dispersal fundamentally influences plant population and community dynamics but is difficult to quantify directly. Consequently, models are frequently used to describe the seed shadow (the seed deposition pattern of a plant population). For vertebrate-dispersed plants, animal behavior is known to influence seed shadows but is poorly integrated in seed dispersal models. Here, we illustrate a modeling approach that incorporates animal behavior and develop a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model that predicts the seed shadow for a primate-dispersed tree species (Virola calophylla, Myristicaceae) at the forest stand scale. The model was parameterized from field-collected data on fruit production and seed dispersal, behaviors and movement patterns of the key disperser, the spider monkey (Ateles paniscus), densities of dispersed and non-dispersed seeds, and direct estimates of seed dispersal distances. Our model demonstrated that the spatial scale of dispersal for this V. calophylla population was large, as spider monkeys routinely dispersed seeds >100 m, a commonly used threshold for long-distance dispersal. The simulated seed shadow was heterogeneous, with high spatial variance in seed density resulting largely from behaviors and movement patterns of spider monkeys that aggregated seeds (dispersal at their sleeping sites) and that scattered seeds (dispersal during diurnal foraging and resting). The single-distribution dispersal kernels frequently used to model dispersal substantially underestimated this variance and poorly fit the simulated seed-dispersal curve, primarily because of its multimodality, and a mixture distribution always fit the simulated dispersal curve better. Both seed shadow heterogeneity and dispersal curve multimodality arose directly from these different dispersal processes generated by spider monkeys. Compared to models that did not account for disperser behavior, our modeling approach improved prediction of the seed shadow of this V

  13. Incorporating uncertainty of management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomon, Yacov; McCarthy, Michael A; Taylor, Peter; Wintle, Brendan A

    2013-02-01

    The importance of accounting for economic costs when making environmental-management decisions subject to resource constraints has been increasingly recognized in recent years. In contrast, uncertainty associated with such costs has often been ignored. We developed a method, on the basis of economic theory, that accounts for the uncertainty in population-management decisions. We considered the case where, rather than taking fixed values, model parameters are random variables that represent the situation when parameters are not precisely known. Hence, the outcome is not precisely known either. Instead of maximizing the expected outcome, we maximized the probability of obtaining an outcome above a threshold of acceptability. We derived explicit analytical expressions for the optimal allocation and its associated probability, as a function of the threshold of acceptability, where the model parameters were distributed according to normal and uniform distributions. To illustrate our approach we revisited a previous study that incorporated cost-efficiency analyses in management decisions that were based on perturbation analyses of matrix population models. Incorporating derivations from this study into our framework, we extended the model to address potential uncertainties. We then applied these results to 2 case studies: management of a Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population and conservation of an olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) population. For low aspirations, that is, when the threshold of acceptability is relatively low, the optimal strategy was obtained by diversifying the allocation of funds. Conversely, for high aspirations, the budget was directed toward management actions with the highest potential effect on the population. The exact optimal allocation was sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty when making decisions and suggest that more effort should be placed on

  14. An approach to incorporate individual personality in modeling fish dispersal across in-stream barriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Thorlacius, Magnus; Brodin, Tomas; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2017-01-01

    Animal personalities are an important factor that affects the dispersal of animals. In the context of aquatic species, dispersal modeling needs to consider that most freshwater ecosystems are highly fragmented by barriers reducing longitudinal connectivity. Previous research has incorporated such barriers into dispersal models under the neutral assumption that all migrating animals attempt to ascend at all times. Modeling dispersal of animals that do not perform trophic or reproductive migrations will be more realistic if it includes assumptions of which individuals attempt to overcome a barrier. We aimed to introduce personality into predictive modeling of whether a nonmigratory invasive freshwater fish (the round goby, Neogobius melanostomus) will disperse across an in-stream barrier. To that end, we experimentally assayed the personalities of 259 individuals from invasion fronts and established round goby populations. Based on the population differences in boldness, asociability, and activity, we defined a priori thresholds with bolder, more asocial, and more active individuals having a higher likelihood of ascent. We then combined the personality thresholds with swimming speed data from the literature and in situ measurements of flow velocities in the barrier. The resulting binary logistic regression model revealed probabilities of crossing a barrier which depended not only on water flow and fish swimming speed but also on animal personalities. We conclude that risk assessment through predictive dispersal modeling across fragmented landscapes can be advanced by including personality traits as parameters. The inclusion of behavior into modeling the spread of invasive species can help to improve the accuracy of risk assessments.

  15. A constitutive mechanical model for gas hydrate bearing sediments incorporating inelastic mechanisms

    KAUST Repository

    Sánchez, Marcelo

    2016-11-30

    Gas hydrate bearing sediments (HBS) are natural soils formed in permafrost and sub-marine settings where the temperature and pressure conditions are such that gas hydrates are stable. If these conditions shift from the hydrate stability zone, hydrates dissociate and move from the solid to the gas phase. Hydrate dissociation is accompanied by significant changes in sediment structure and strongly affects its mechanical behavior (e.g., sediment stiffenss, strength and dilatancy). The mechanical behavior of HBS is very complex and its modeling poses great challenges. This paper presents a new geomechanical model for hydrate bearing sediments. The model incorporates the concept of partition stress, plus a number of inelastic mechanisms proposed to capture the complex behavior of this type of soil. This constitutive model is especially well suited to simulate the behavior of HBS upon dissociation. The model was applied and validated against experimental data from triaxial and oedometric tests conducted on manufactured and natural specimens involving different hydrate saturation, hydrate morphology, and confinement conditions. Particular attention was paid to model the HBS behavior during hydrate dissociation under loading. The model performance was highly satisfactory in all the cases studied. It managed to properly capture the main features of HBS mechanical behavior and it also assisted to interpret the behavior of this type of sediment under different loading and hydrate conditions.

  16. Advanced Methods for Incorporating Solar Energy Technologies into Electric Sector Capacity-Expansion Models: Literature Review and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, P.; Eurek, K.; Margolis, R.

    2014-07-01

    Because solar power is a rapidly growing component of the electricity system, robust representations of solar technologies should be included in capacity-expansion models. This is a challenge because modeling the electricity system--and, in particular, modeling solar integration within that system--is a complex endeavor. This report highlights the major challenges of incorporating solar technologies into capacity-expansion models and shows examples of how specific models address those challenges. These challenges include modeling non-dispatchable technologies, determining which solar technologies to model, choosing a spatial resolution, incorporating a solar resource assessment, and accounting for solar generation variability and uncertainty.

  17. Incorporating biological pathways via a Markov random field model in genome-wide association studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Chen

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS examine a large number of markers across the genome to identify associations between genetic variants and disease. Most published studies examine only single markers, which may be less informative than considering multiple markers and multiple genes jointly because genes may interact with each other to affect disease risk. Much knowledge has been accumulated in the literature on biological pathways and interactions. It is conceivable that appropriate incorporation of such prior knowledge may improve the likelihood of making genuine discoveries. Although a number of methods have been developed recently to prioritize genes using prior biological knowledge, such as pathways, most methods treat genes in a specific pathway as an exchangeable set without considering the topological structure of a pathway. However, how genes are related with each other in a pathway may be very informative to identify association signals. To make use of the connectivity information among genes in a pathway in GWAS analysis, we propose a Markov Random Field (MRF model to incorporate pathway topology for association analysis. We show that the conditional distribution of our MRF model takes on a simple logistic regression form, and we propose an iterated conditional modes algorithm as well as a decision theoretic approach for statistical inference of each gene's association with disease. Simulation studies show that our proposed framework is more effective to identify genes associated with disease than a single gene-based method. We also illustrate the usefulness of our approach through its applications to a real data example.

  18. Incorporating S-shaped testing-effort functions into NHPP software reliability model with imperfect debugging

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qiuying Li; Haifeng Li; Minyan Lu

    2015-01-01

    Testing-effort (TE) and imperfect debugging (ID) in the reliability modeling process may further improve the fitting and pre-diction results of software reliability growth models (SRGMs). For describing the S-shaped varying trend of TE increasing rate more accurately, first, two S-shaped testing-effort functions (TEFs), i.e., delayed S-shaped TEF (DS-TEF) and inflected S-shaped TEF (IS-TEF), are proposed. Then these two TEFs are incorporated into various types (exponential-type, delayed S-shaped and in-flected S-shaped) of non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) SRGMs with two forms of ID respectively for obtaining a series of new NHPP SRGMs which consider S-shaped TEFs as wel as ID. Final y these new SRGMs and several comparison NHPP SRGMs are applied into four real failure data-sets respectively for investigating the fitting and prediction power of these new SRGMs. The experimental results show that: (i) the proposed IS-TEF is more suitable and flexible for describing the consumption of TE than the previous TEFs; (i ) incorporating TEFs into the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM may be more effective and appropriate compared with the exponential-type and the delayed S-shaped NHPP SRGMs; (i i) the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM con-sidering both IS-TEF and ID yields the most accurate fitting and prediction results than the other comparison NHPP SRGMs.

  19. Fingerprints of endogenous process on Europa through linear spectral modeling of ground-based observations (ESO/VLT/SINFONI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ligier, Nicolas; Carter, John; Poulet, François; Langevin, Yves; Dumas, Christophe; Gourgeot, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Jupiter's moon Europa harbors a very young surface dated, based on cratering rates, to 10-50 M.y (Zahnle et al. 1998, Pappalardo et al. 1999). This young age implies rapid surface recycling and reprocessing, partially engendered by a global salty subsurface liquid ocean that could result in tectonic activity (Schmidt et al. 2011, Kattenhorn et al. 2014) and active plumes (Roth et al. 2014). The surface of Europa should contain important clues about the composition of this sub-surface briny ocean and about the potential presence of material of exobiological interest in it, thus reinforcing Europa as a major target of interest for upcoming space missions such as the ESA L-class mission JUICE. To perform the investigation of the composition of the surface of Europa, a global mapping campaign of the satellite was performed between October 2011 and January 2012 with the integral field spectrograph SINFONI on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) in Chile. The high spectral binning of this instrument (0.5 nm) is suitable to detect any narrow mineral signature in the wavelength range 1.45-2.45 μm. The spatially resolved spectra we obtained over five epochs nearly cover the entire surface of Europa with a pixel scale of 12.5 by 25 m.a.s (~35 by 70 km on Europa's surface), thus permitting a global scale study. Until recently, a large majority of studies only proposed sulfate salts along with sulfuric acid hydrate and water-ice to be present on Europa's surface. However, recent works based on Europa's surface coloration in the visible wavelength range and NIR spectral analysis support the hypothesis of the predominance of chlorine salts instead of sulfate salts (Hand & Carlson 2015, Fischer et al. 2015). Our linear spectral modeling supports this new hypothesis insofar as the use of Mg-bearing chlorines improved the fits whatever the region. As expected, the distribution of sulfuric acid hydrate is correlated to the Iogenic sulfur ion implantation flux distribution (Hendrix et al

  20. Incorporating parameter uncertainty in Bayesian segmentation models: application to hippocampal subfield volumetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Sabuncu, Mert Rory; Van Leemput, Koen

    2012-01-01

    Many successful segmentation algorithms are based on Bayesian models in which prior anatomical knowledge is combined with the available image information. However, these methods typically have many free parameters that are estimated to obtain point estimates only, whereas a faithful Bayesian analysis would also consider all possible alternate values these parameters may take. In this paper, we propose to incorporate the uncertainty of the free parameters in Bayesian segmentation models more accurately by using Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate our technique by sampling atlas warps in a recent method for hippocampal subfield segmentation, and show a significant improvement in an Alzheimer's disease classification task. As an additional benefit, the method also yields informative "error bars" on the segmentation results for each of the individual sub-structures.

  1. Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty in Bayesian Segmentation Models: Application to Hippocampal Subfield Volumetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iglesias, J. E.; Sabuncu, M. R.; Van Leemput, Koen

    2012-01-01

    in a recent method for hippocampal subfield segmentation, and show a significant improvement in an Alzheimer’s disease classification task. As an additional benefit, the method also yields informative “error bars” on the segmentation results for each of the individual sub-structures.......Many successful segmentation algorithms are based on Bayesian models in which prior anatomical knowledge is combined with the available image information. However, these methods typically have many free parameters that are estimated to obtain point estimates only, whereas a faithful Bayesian...... analysis would also consider all possible alternate values these parameters may take. In this paper, we propose to incorporate the uncertainty of the free parameters in Bayesian segmentation models more accurately by using Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate our technique by sampling atlas warps...

  2. Algorithm for break even availability allocation in process system modification using deterministic valuation model incorporating reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shouri, P.V.; Sreejith, P.S. [Division of Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), Cochin 682 022, Kerala (India)

    2008-06-15

    In the present scenario of energy demand overtaking energy supply, top priority is given for energy conservation programs and policies. As a result, most existing systems are redesigned or modified with a view for improving energy efficiency. Often these modifications can have an impact on process system configuration, thereby affecting process system reliability. The paper presents a model for valuation of process systems incorporating reliability that can be used to determine the change in process system value resulting from system modification. The model also determines the break even system availability and presents an algorithm for allocation of component reliabilities of the modified system based on the break even system availability. The developed equations are applied to a steam power plant to study the effect of various operating parameters on system value. (author)

  3. SIFT and shape information incorporated into fluid model for non-rigid registration of ultrasound images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xuesong; Zhang, Su; Yang, Wei; Chen, Yazhu

    2010-11-01

    Non-rigid registration of ultrasound images takes an important role in image-guided radiotherapy and surgery. Intensity-based method is popular in non-rigid registration, but it is sensitive to intensity variations and has problems with matching small structure features for the existence of speckles in ultrasound images. In this paper, we develop a new algorithm integrating the intensity and feature of ultrasound images. Both global shape information and local keypoint information extracted by scale invariant feature transform (SIFT) are incorporated into intensity similarity measure as the body force of viscous fluid model in a Bayesian framework. Experiments were performed on synthetic and clinical ultrasound images of breast and kidney. It is shown that shape and keypoint information significantly improves fluid model for non-rigid registration, especially for alignment of small structure features in accuracy.

  4. A Loudness Model for Time-Varying Sounds Incorporating Binaural Inhibition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian C. J. Moore

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes a model of loudness for time-varying sounds that incorporates the concept of binaural inhibition, namely, that the signal applied to one ear can reduce the internal response to a signal at the other ear. For each ear, the model includes the following: a filter to allow for the effects of transfer of sound through the outer and middle ear; a short-term spectral analysis with greater frequency resolution at low than at high frequencies; calculation of an excitation pattern, representing the magnitudes of the outputs of the auditory filters as a function of center frequency; application of a compressive nonlinearity to the output of each auditory filter; and smoothing over time of the resulting instantaneous specific loudness pattern using an averaging process resembling an automatic gain control. The resulting short-term specific loudness patterns are used to calculate broadly tuned binaural inhibition functions, the amount of inhibition depending on the relative short-term specific loudness at the two ears. The inhibited specific loudness patterns are summed across frequency to give an estimate of the short-term loudness for each ear. The overall short-term loudness is calculated as the sum of the short-term loudness values for the two ears. The long-term loudness for each ear is calculated by smoothing the short-term loudness for that ear, again by a process resembling automatic gain control, and the overall loudness impression is obtained by summing the long-term loudness across ears. The predictions of the model are more accurate than those of an earlier model that did not incorporate binaural inhibition.

  5. A Loudness Model for Time-Varying Sounds Incorporating Binaural Inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Brian C J; Glasberg, Brian R; Varathanathan, Ajanth; Schlittenlacher, Josef

    2016-01-01

    This article describes a model of loudness for time-varying sounds that incorporates the concept of binaural inhibition, namely, that the signal applied to one ear can reduce the internal response to a signal at the other ear. For each ear, the model includes the following: a filter to allow for the effects of transfer of sound through the outer and middle ear; a short-term spectral analysis with greater frequency resolution at low than at high frequencies; calculation of an excitation pattern, representing the magnitudes of the outputs of the auditory filters as a function of center frequency; application of a compressive nonlinearity to the output of each auditory filter; and smoothing over time of the resulting instantaneous specific loudness pattern using an averaging process resembling an automatic gain control. The resulting short-term specific loudness patterns are used to calculate broadly tuned binaural inhibition functions, the amount of inhibition depending on the relative short-term specific loudness at the two ears. The inhibited specific loudness patterns are summed across frequency to give an estimate of the short-term loudness for each ear. The overall short-term loudness is calculated as the sum of the short-term loudness values for the two ears. The long-term loudness for each ear is calculated by smoothing the short-term loudness for that ear, again by a process resembling automatic gain control, and the overall loudness impression is obtained by summing the long-term loudness across ears. The predictions of the model are more accurate than those of an earlier model that did not incorporate binaural inhibition.

  6. Incorporation of experimentally-derived fiber orientation into a structural constitutive model for planar collagenous tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacks, Michael S

    2003-04-01

    Structural constitutive models integrate information on tissue composition and structure, avoiding ambiguities in material characterization. However, critical structural information (such as fiber orientation) must be modeled using assumed statistical distributions, with the distribution parameters estimated from fits to the mechanical test data. Thus, full realization of structural approaches continues to be limited without direct quantitative structural information for direct implementation or to validate model predictions. In the present study, fiber orientation information obtained using small angle light scattering (SALS) was directly incorporated into a structural constitutive model based on work by Lanir (J. Biomech., v. 16, pp. 1-12, 1983). Demonstration of the model was performed using existing biaxial mechanical and fiber orientation data for native bovine pericardium (Sacks and Chuong, ABME, v.26, pp. 892-902, 1998). The structural constitutive model accurately predicted the complete measured biaxial mechanical response. An important aspect of this approach is that only a single equibiaxial test to determine the effective fiber stress-strain response and the SALS-derived fiber orientation distribution were required to determine the complete planar biaxial mechanical response. Changes in collagen fiber crimp under equibiaxial strain suggest that, at the meso-scale, fiber deformations follow the global tissue strains. This result supports the assumption of affine strain to estimate the fiber strains. However, future evaluations will have to be performed for tissue subjected to a wider range of strain to more fully validate the current approach.

  7. An agent-based model of stock markets incorporating momentum investors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, J. R.; Huang, J. P.; Hui, P. M.

    2013-06-01

    It has been widely accepted that there exist investors who adopt momentum strategies in real stock markets. Understanding the momentum behavior is of both academic and practical importance. For this purpose, we propose and study a simple agent-based model of trading incorporating momentum investors and random investors. The random investors trade randomly all the time. The momentum investors could be idle, buying or selling, and they decide on their action by implementing an action threshold that assesses the most recent price movement. The model is able to reproduce some of the stylized facts observed in real markets, including the fat-tails in returns, weak long-term correlation and scaling behavior in the kurtosis of returns. An analytic treatment of the model relates the model parameters to several quantities that can be extracted from real data sets. To illustrate how the model can be applied, we show that real market data can be used to constrain the model parameters, which in turn provide information on the behavior of momentum investors in different markets.

  8. Tutorial in medical decision modeling incorporating waiting lines and queues using discrete event simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Beate; Theurl, Engelbert; Siebert, Uwe; Pfeiffer, Karl-Peter

    2010-01-01

    In most decision-analytic models in health care, it is assumed that there is treatment without delay and availability of all required resources. Therefore, waiting times caused by limited resources and their impact on treatment effects and costs often remain unconsidered. Queuing theory enables mathematical analysis and the derivation of several performance measures of queuing systems. Nevertheless, an analytical approach with closed formulas is not always possible. Therefore, simulation techniques are used to evaluate systems that include queuing or waiting, for example, discrete event simulation. To include queuing in decision-analytic models requires a basic knowledge of queuing theory and of the underlying interrelationships. This tutorial introduces queuing theory. Analysts and decision-makers get an understanding of queue characteristics, modeling features, and its strength. Conceptual issues are covered, but the emphasis is on practical issues like modeling the arrival of patients. The treatment of coronary artery disease with percutaneous coronary intervention including stent placement serves as an illustrative queuing example. Discrete event simulation is applied to explicitly model resource capacities, to incorporate waiting lines and queues in the decision-analytic modeling example.

  9. The effect of unpaid caregiving intensity on labour force participation: results from a multinomial endogenous treatment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke Brian

    2014-01-01

    It is well acknowledged that the intensity of caregiving affects the labour force participation of caregivers. The literature so far has not, however, been able to control effectively for the endogeneity of caregiving intensity. This paper contributes by dealing with the endogeneity of unpaid caregiving intensity when examining its impact on the labour force participation of caregivers. We distinguish between care provided to people who cohabit with the care recipient and care provided to recipients who reside elsewhere, as well as between primary and secondary caring roles. We address the endogeneity of selection in various care intensity roles via an instrumental variables approach, using the health status of potential care recipients as instruments. Data from wave 8 of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey which was undertaken in 2008 are used. We focus on a sample of 7845 working age males and females. Ruling out the endogeneity of any caregiving intensity role, we find that caregiving has a significant deterrent effect on caregivers' employment. This deterrent effect however is concentrated among those who identify as the main caregiver and the result appears to be the same irrespective of gender. Providing care as the main caregiver reduces the probability of employment by approximately 12 percentage points for both males and females, regardless of whether or not the caregivers cohabit with the care recipients. By contrast, we find no statistically significant impact of providing care as a secondary caregiver on the employment probabilities of either males or females. These results are germane to the development of policies that may affect informal caregiving and, thereby, the labour force decisions of carers.

  10. Benefits of incorporating spatial organisation of catchments for a semi-distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Andreas; Oppel, Henning

    2017-04-01

    To represent the hydrological behaviour of catchments a model should reproduce/reflect the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject of a certain spatial organisation. Since common models are mostly based on fundamental assumptions about hydrological processes, the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organisation of the catchment is desirable. We have developed a method that combines the idea of the width-function used for determination of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph with information about soil or topography. With this method we are able to assess the spatial organisation of selected catchment characteristics. An algorithm was developed that structures a watershed into sub-basins and other spatial units to minimise its heterogeneity. The outcomes of this algorithm are used for the spatial setup of a semi-distributed model. Since the spatial organisation of a catchment is not bound to a single characteristic, we have to embed information of multiple catchment properties. For this purpose we applied a fuzzy-based method to combine the spatial setup for multiple single characteristics into a union, optimal spatial differentiation. Utilizing this method, we are able to propose a spatial structure for a semi-distributed hydrological model, comprising the definition of sub-basins and a zonal classification within each sub-basin. Besides the improved spatial structuring, the performed analysis ameliorates modelling in another way. The spatial variability of catchment characteristics, which is considered by a minimum of heterogeneity in the zones, can be considered in a parameter constrained calibration scheme in a case study both options were used to explore the benefits of incorporating the spatial organisation and derived parameter constraints for the parametrisation of a HBV-96 model. We use two benchmark

  11. The dilemma of disappearing diatoms: Incorporating diatom dissolution data into palaeoenvironmental modelling and reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryves, David B.; Battarbee, Richard W.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.

    2009-01-01

    Taphonomic issues pose fundamental challenges for Quaternary scientists to recover environmental signals from biological proxies and make accurate inferences of past environments. The problem of microfossil preservation, specifically diatom dissolution, remains an important, but often overlooked, source of error in both qualitative and quantitative reconstructions of key variables from fossil samples, especially those using relative abundance data. A first step to tackling this complex issue is establishing an objective method of assessing preservation (here, diatom dissolution) that can be applied by different analysts and incorporated into routine counting strategies. Here, we establish a methodology for assessment of diatom dissolution under standard light microscopy (LM) illustrated with morphological criteria for a range of major diatom valve shapes. Dissolution data can be applied to numerical models (transfer functions) from contemporary samples, and to fossil material to aid interpretation of stratigraphic profiles and taphonomic pathways of individual taxa. Using a surface sediment diatom-salinity training set from the Northern Great Plains (NGP) as an example, we explore a variety of approaches to include dissolution data in salinity inference models indirectly and directly. Results show that dissolution data can improve models, with apparent dissolution-adjusted error (RMSE) up to 15% lower than their unadjusted counterparts. Internal validation suggests improvements are more modest, with bootstrapped prediction errors (RMSEP) up to 10% lower. When tested on a short core from Devils Lake, North Dakota, which has a historical record of salinity, dissolution-adjusted models infer higher values compared to unadjusted models during peak salinity of the 1930s-1940s Dust Bowl but nonetheless significantly underestimate peak values. Site-specific factors at Devils Lake associated with effects of lake level change on taphonomy (preservation and re

  12. Overall challenges in incorporating micro-mechanical models into materials design process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennoura, M.; Aboutajeddine, A.

    2016-10-01

    Using materials in engineering design has historically been handled using the paradigm of selecting appropriate materials from the finite set of available material databases. Recent trends, however, have moved toward the tailoring of materials that meet the overall system performance requirements, based on a process called material design. An important building block of this process is micromechanical models that relate microstructure to proprieties. Unfortunately, these models remain short and include a lot of uncertainties from assumptions and idealizations, which, unavoidably, impacts material design strategy. In this work, candidate methods to deal with micromechanical models uncertainties and their drawbacks in material design are investigated. Robust design methods for quantifying uncertainty and managing or mitigating its impact on design performances are reviewed first. These methods include principles for classifying uncertainty, mathematical techniques for evaluating its level degree, and design methods for performing and generating design alternatives, that are relatively insensitive to sources of uncertainty and flexible for admitting design changes or variations. The last section of this paper addresses the limits of the existing approaches from material modelling perspective and identifies the research opportunities to overcome the impediment of incorporating micromechanical models in material design process.

  13. Incorporating experimental design and error into coalescent/mutation models of population history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudsen, Bjarne; Miyamoto, Michael M

    2007-08-01

    Coalescent theory provides a powerful framework for estimating the evolutionary, demographic, and genetic parameters of a population from a small sample of individuals. Current coalescent models have largely focused on population genetic factors (e.g., mutation, population growth, and migration) rather than on the effects of experimental design and error. This study develops a new coalescent/mutation model that accounts for unobserved polymorphisms due to missing data, sequence errors, and multiple reads for diploid individuals. The importance of accommodating these effects of experimental design and error is illustrated with evolutionary simulations and a real data set from a population of the California sea hare. In particular, a failure to account for sequence errors can lead to overestimated mutation rates, inflated coalescent times, and inappropriate conclusions about the population. This current model can now serve as a starting point for the development of newer models with additional experimental and population genetic factors. It is currently implemented as a maximum-likelihood method, but this model may also serve as the basis for the development of Bayesian approaches that incorporate experimental design and error.

  14. A transient electrochemical model incorporating the Donnan effect for all-vanadium redox flow batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Y.; Zhang, B. W.; Bai, B. F.; Zhao, T. S.

    2015-12-01

    In a typical all-vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), the ion exchange membrane is directly exposed in the bulk electrolyte. Consequently, the Donnan effect occurs at the membrane/electrolyte (M/E) interfaces, which is critical for modeling of ion transport through the membrane and the prediction of cell performance. However, unrealistic assumptions in previous VRFB models, such as electroneutrality and discontinuities of ionic potential and ion concentrations at the M/E interfaces, lead to simulated results inconsistent with the theoretical analysis of ion adsorption in the membrane. To address this issue, this work proposes a continuous-Donnan effect-model using the Poisson equation coupled with the Nernst-Planck equation to describe variable distributions at the M/E interfaces. A one-dimensional transient VRFB model incorporating the Donnan effect is developed. It is demonstrated that the present model enables (i) a more realistic simulation of continuous distributions of ion concentrations and ionic potential throughout the membrane and (ii) a more comprehensive estimation for the effect of the fixed charge concentration on species crossover across the membrane and cell performance.

  15. a Maximum Entropy Model of the Bearded Capuchin Monkey Habitat Incorporating Topography and Spectral Unmixing Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Bernardes, S.; Nibbelink, N.; Biondi, L.; Presotto, A.; Fragaszy, D. M.; Madden, M.

    2012-07-01

    Movement patterns of bearded capuchin monkeys (Cebus (Sapajus) libidinosus) in northeastern Brazil are likely impacted by environmental features such as elevation, vegetation density, or vegetation type. Habitat preferences of these monkeys provide insights regarding the impact of environmental features on species ecology and the degree to which they incorporate these features in movement decisions. In order to evaluate environmental features influencing movement patterns and predict areas suitable for movement, we employed a maximum entropy modelling approach, using observation points along capuchin monkey daily routes as species presence points. We combined these presence points with spatial data on important environmental features from remotely sensed data on land cover and topography. A spectral mixing analysis procedure was used to generate fraction images that represent green vegetation, shade and soil of the study area. A Landsat Thematic Mapper scene of the area of study was geometrically and atmospherically corrected and used as input in a Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) procedure and a linear spectral unmixing approach was used to generate the fraction images. These fraction images and elevation were the environmental layer inputs for our logistic MaxEnt model of capuchin movement. Our models' predictive power (test AUC) was 0.775. Areas of high elevation (>450 m) showed low probabilities of presence, and percent green vegetation was the greatest overall contributor to model AUC. This work has implications for predicting daily movement patterns of capuchins in our field site, as suitability values from our model may relate to habitat preference and facility of movement.

  16. Incorporating plant fossil data into species distribution models is not straightforward: Pitfalls and possible solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Amat, Elena; Rubiales, Juan Manuel; Morales-Molino, César; García-Amorena, Ignacio

    2017-08-01

    The increasing development of species distribution models (SDMs) using palaeodata has created new prospects to address questions of evolution, ecology and biogeography from wider perspectives. Palaeobotanical data provide information on the past distribution of taxa at a given time and place and its incorporation on modelling has contributed to advancing the SDM field. This has allowed, for example, to calibrate models under past climate conditions or to validate projected models calibrated on current species distributions. However, these data also bear certain shortcomings when used in SDMs that may hinder the resulting ecological outcomes and eventually lead to misleading conclusions. Palaeodata may not be equivalent to present data, but instead frequently exhibit limitations and biases regarding species representation, taxonomy and chronological control, and their inclusion in SDMs should be carefully assessed. The limitations of palaeobotanical data applied to SDM studies are infrequently discussed and often neglected in the modelling literature; thus, we argue for the more careful selection and control of these data. We encourage authors to use palaeobotanical data in their SDMs studies and for doing so, we propose some recommendations to improve the robustness, reliability and significance of palaeo-SDM analyses.

  17. Statistical integration of tracking and vessel survey data to incorporate life history differences in habitat models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Takashi; Watanuki, Yutaka; Hazen, Elliott L; Nishizawa, Bungo; Sasaki, Hiroko; Takahashi, Akinori

    2015-12-01

    Habitat use is often examined at a species or population level, but patterns likely differ within a species, as a function of the sex, breeding colony, and current breeding status of individuals. Hence, within-species differences should be considered in habitat models when analyzing and predicting species distributions, such as predicted responses to expected climate change scenarios. Also, species' distribution data obtained by different methods (vessel-survey and individual tracking) are often analyzed separately rather than integrated to improve predictions. Here, we eventually fit generalized additive models for Streaked Shearwaters Calonectris leuconelas using tracking data from two different breeding colonies in the Northwestern Pacific and visual observer data collected during a research cruise off the coast of western Japan. The tracking-based models showed differences among patterns of relative density distribution as a function of life history category (colony, sex, and breeding conditions). The integrated tracking-based and vessel-based bird count model incorporated ecological states rather than predicting a single surface for the entire species. This study highlights both the importance of including ecological and life history data and integrating multiple data types (tag-based tracking and vessel count) when examining species-environment relationships, ultimately advancing the capabilities of species distribution models.

  18. Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating

  19. Endogenous rhythms influence interpersonal synchrony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamm, Anna; Wellman, Chelsea; Palmer, Caroline

    2016-05-01

    Interpersonal synchrony, the temporal coordination of actions between individuals, is fundamental to social behaviors from conversational speech to dance and music-making. Animal models indicate constraints on synchrony that arise from endogenous rhythms: Intrinsic periodic behaviors or processes that continue in the absence of change in external stimulus conditions. We report evidence for a direct causal link between endogenous rhythms and interpersonal synchrony in a music performance task, which places high demands on temporal coordination. We first establish that endogenous rhythms, measured by spontaneous rates of individual performance, are stable within individuals across stimulus materials, limb movements, and time points. We then test a causal link between endogenous rhythms and interpersonal synchrony by pairing each musician with a partner who is either matched or mismatched in spontaneous rate and by measuring their joint behavior up to 1 year later. Partners performed melodies together, using either the same or different hands. Partners who were matched for spontaneous rate showed greater interpersonal synchrony in joint performance than mismatched partners, regardless of hand used. Endogenous rhythms offer potential to predict optimal group membership in joint behaviors that require temporal coordination.

  20. Incorporating Single-nucleotide Polymorphisms Into the Lyman Model to Improve Prediction of Radiation Pneumonitis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tucker, Susan L., E-mail: sltucker@mdanderson.org [Department of Bioinformatics and Computational Biology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Li Minghuan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China); Xu Ting; Gomez, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Yuan Xianglin [Department of Oncology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan (China); Yu Jinming [Department of Radiation Oncology, Shandong Cancer Hospital, Jinan, Shandong (China); Liu Zhensheng; Yin Ming; Guan Xiaoxiang; Wang Lie; Wei Qingyi [Department of Epidemiology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Mohan, Radhe [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Vinogradskiy, Yevgeniy [University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado (United States); Martel, Mary [Department of Radiation Physics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Liao Zhongxing [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To determine whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes associated with DNA repair, cell cycle, transforming growth factor-{beta}, tumor necrosis factor and receptor, folic acid metabolism, and angiogenesis can significantly improve the fit of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model of radiation pneumonitis (RP) risk among patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: Sixteen SNPs from 10 different genes (XRCC1, XRCC3, APEX1, MDM2, TGF{beta}, TNF{alpha}, TNFR, MTHFR, MTRR, and VEGF) were genotyped in 141 NSCLC patients treated with definitive radiation therapy, with or without chemotherapy. The LKB model was used to estimate the risk of severe (grade {>=}3) RP as a function of mean lung dose (MLD), with SNPs and patient smoking status incorporated into the model as dose-modifying factors. Multivariate analyses were performed by adding significant factors to the MLD model in a forward stepwise procedure, with significance assessed using the likelihood-ratio test. Bootstrap analyses were used to assess the reproducibility of results under variations in the data. Results: Five SNPs were selected for inclusion in the multivariate NTCP model based on MLD alone. SNPs associated with an increased risk of severe RP were in genes for TGF{beta}, VEGF, TNF{alpha}, XRCC1 and APEX1. With smoking status included in the multivariate model, the SNPs significantly associated with increased risk of RP were in genes for TGF{beta}, VEGF, and XRCC3. Bootstrap analyses selected a median of 4 SNPs per model fit, with the 6 genes listed above selected most often. Conclusions: This study provides evidence that SNPs can significantly improve the predictive ability of the Lyman MLD model. With a small number of SNPs, it was possible to distinguish cohorts with >50% risk vs <10% risk of RP when they were exposed to high MLDs.

  1. Incorporation of caffeine into a quantitative model of fatigue and sleep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puckeridge, M; Fulcher, B D; Phillips, A J K; Robinson, P A

    2011-03-21

    A recent physiologically based model of human sleep is extended to incorporate the effects of caffeine on sleep-wake timing and fatigue. The model includes the sleep-active neurons of the hypothalamic ventrolateral preoptic area (VLPO), the wake-active monoaminergic brainstem populations (MA), their interactions with cholinergic/orexinergic (ACh/Orx) input to MA, and circadian and homeostatic drives. We model two effects of caffeine on the brain due to competitive antagonism of adenosine (Ad): (i) a reduction in the homeostatic drive and (ii) an increase in cholinergic activity. By comparing the model output to experimental data, constraints are determined on the parameters that describe the action of caffeine on the brain. In accord with experiment, the ranges of these parameters imply significant variability in caffeine sensitivity between individuals, with caffeine's effectiveness in reducing fatigue being highly dependent on an individual's tolerance, and past caffeine and sleep history. Although there are wide individual differences in caffeine sensitivity and thus in parameter values, once the model is calibrated for an individual it can be used to make quantitative predictions for that individual. A number of applications of the model are examined, using exemplar parameter values, including: (i) quantitative estimation of the sleep loss and the delay to sleep onset after taking caffeine for various doses and times; (ii) an analysis of the system's stable states showing that the wake state during sleep deprivation is stabilized after taking caffeine; and (iii) comparing model output successfully to experimental values of subjective fatigue reported in a total sleep deprivation study examining the reduction of fatigue with caffeine. This model provides a framework for quantitatively assessing optimal strategies for using caffeine, on an individual basis, to maintain performance during sleep deprivation.

  2. A neural population model incorporating dopaminergic neurotransmission during complex voluntary behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Fürtinger

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Assessing brain activity during complex voluntary motor behaviors that require the recruitment of multiple neural sites is a field of active research. Our current knowledge is primarily based on human brain imaging studies that have clear limitations in terms of temporal and spatial resolution. We developed a physiologically informed non-linear multi-compartment stochastic neural model to simulate functional brain activity coupled with neurotransmitter release during complex voluntary behavior, such as speech production. Due to its state-dependent modulation of neural firing, dopaminergic neurotransmission plays a key role in the organization of functional brain circuits controlling speech and language and thus has been incorporated in our neural population model. A rigorous mathematical proof establishing existence and uniqueness of solutions to the proposed model as well as a computationally efficient strategy to numerically approximate these solutions are presented. Simulated brain activity during the resting state and sentence production was analyzed using functional network connectivity, and graph theoretical techniques were employed to highlight differences between the two conditions. We demonstrate that our model successfully reproduces characteristic changes seen in empirical data between the resting state and speech production, and dopaminergic neurotransmission evokes pronounced changes in modeled functional connectivity by acting on the underlying biological stochastic neural model. Specifically, model and data networks in both speech and rest conditions share task-specific network features: both the simulated and empirical functional connectivity networks show an increase in nodal influence and segregation in speech over the resting state. These commonalities confirm that dopamine is a key neuromodulator of the functional connectome of speech control. Based on reproducible characteristic aspects of empirical data, we suggest a number

  3. Petroacoustic Modelling of Heterolithic Sandstone Reservoirs: A Novel Approach to Gassmann Modelling Incorporating Sedimentological Constraints and NMR Porosity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, S.; Lovell, M.; Davies, S. J.; Pritchard, T.; Sirju, C.; Abdelkarim, A.

    2012-12-01

    Heterolithic or 'shaly' sandstone reservoirs constitute a significant proportion of hydrocarbon resources. Petroacoustic models (a combination of petrophysics and rock physics) enhance the ability to extract reservoir properties from seismic data, providing a connection between seismic and fine-scale rock properties. By incorporating sedimentological observations these models can be better constrained and improved. Petroacoustic modelling is complicated by the unpredictable effects of clay minerals and clay-sized particles on geophysical properties. Such effects are responsible for erroneous results when models developed for "clean" reservoirs - such as Gassmann's equation (Gassmann, 1951) - are applied to heterolithic sandstone reservoirs. Gassmann's equation is arguably the most popular petroacoustic modelling technique in the hydrocarbon industry and is used to model elastic effects of changing reservoir fluid saturations. Successful implementation of Gassmann's equation requires well-constrained drained rock frame properties, which in heterolithic sandstones are heavily influenced by reservoir sedimentology, particularly clay distribution. The prevalent approach to categorising clay distribution is based on the Thomas - Stieber model (Thomas & Stieber, 1975), this approach is inconsistent with current understanding of 'shaly sand' sedimentology and omits properties such as sorting and grain size. The novel approach presented here demonstrates that characterising reservoir sedimentology constitutes an important modelling phase. As well as incorporating sedimentological constraints, this novel approach also aims to improve drained frame moduli estimates through more careful consideration of Gassmann's model assumptions and limitations. A key assumption of Gassmann's equation is a pore space in total communication with movable fluids. This assumption is often violated by conventional applications in heterolithic sandstone reservoirs where effective porosity, which

  4. Amelioration of cognitive, motor and endogenous defense functions with silymarin, piracetam and protocatechuic acid in the cerebral global ischemic rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muley, Milind M; Thakare, Vishnu N; Patil, Rajesh R; Bafna, Pallavi A; Naik, Suresh R

    2013-07-19

    The neuroprotective activities of silymarin, piracetam and protocatechuic acid ethyl ester (PCA) on cerebral global ischemic/reperfusion were evaluated in a rat model. A midline ventral incision was made in the throat region. The right and left common carotid arteries were located and a bilateral common carotid artery occlusion (BCCAO) was performed for 30min using atraumatic clamps followed by a 24h period of reperfusion. Neurological/behavioral functions (cognitive and motor), endogenous defense systems (lipid peroxidation, glutathione, catalase, and superoxide dismutase), reduced water content and infarct size and histopathological alterations were then studied. Silymarin and PCA treatments significantly improved cognitive, motor and endogenous defense functions, histopathological alterations, and, reduced both water content and infarct size compared to the vehicle-treated ischemic control group. Piracetam treatment improved neurological and histopathological alterations, reduced water content and infarct size, but failed to restore/prevent the impaired endogenous defense functions significantly. Silymarin showed better neuroprotection than piracetam and PCA in experimentally induced global ischemic/reperfusion and was able to facilitate mnemonic performance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. ENDOGENOUS SCHEDULING PREFERENCES AND CONGESTION

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Small, Kenneth

    2017-01-01

    We consider the timing of activities through a dynamic model of commuting with congestion, in which workers care solely about leisure and consumption. Implicit preferences for the timing of the commute form endogenously due to temporal agglomeration economies. Equilibrium exists uniquely and is i...

  6. Endogenous Fibrinolysis and Vascular Disease

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    彭林

    2004-01-01

    @@ The fate of a forming thrombus is determined through the delicate balance between the coagulation cascade (favouring clot formation) and the fibrinolytic system (favouring clot lysis). These processes occur simultaneously, and enhancement of endogenous fibrinolysis has been shown to reduce occlusive thrombus formation in animal models.

  7. Discrete Software Reliability Growth Modeling for Errors of Different Severity Incorporating Change-point Concept

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Several software reliability growth models (SRGM) have been developed to monitor the reliability growth during the testing phase of software development. In most of the existing research available in the literatures, it is considered that a similar testing effort is required on each debugging effort. However, in practice, different types of faults may require different amounts of testing efforts for their detection and removal. Consequently, faults are classified into three categories on the basis of severity: simple, hard and complex. This categorization may be extended to r type of faults on the basis of severity. Although some existing research in the literatures has incorporated this concept that fault removal rate (FRR) is different for different types of faults, they assume that the FRR remains constant during the overall testing period. On the contrary, it has been observed that as testing progresses, FRR changes due to changing testing strategy, skill, environment and personnel resources. In this paper, a general discrete SRGM is proposed for errors of different severity in software systems using the change-point concept. Then, the models are formulated for two particular environments. The models were validated on two real-life data sets. The results show better fit and wider applicability of the proposed models as to different types of failure datasets.

  8. Preliminary Assessment of Mercury Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Parameterizations for Incorporation into Chemical Transport Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, T.; Agnan, Y.; Obrist, D.; Selin, N. E.; Urban, N. R.; Wu, S.; Perlinger, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Inadequate representation of process-based mechanisms of exchange behavior of elemental mercury (Hg0) and decoupled treatment of deposition and emission are two major limitations of parameterizations of atmosphere-surface exchange flux commonly incorporated into chemical transport models (CTMs). Of nineteen CTMs for Hg0 exchange we reviewed (ten global, nine regional), eight global and seven regional models have decoupled treatment of Hg0 deposition and emission, two global models include no parameterization to account for emission, and the remaining two regional models include coupled deposition and emission parameterizations (i.e., net atmosphere-surface exchange). The performance of atmosphere-surface exchange parameterizations in CTMs depends on parameterization uncertainty (in terms of both accuracy and precision) and feasibility of implementation. We provide a comparison of the performance of three available parameterizations of net atmosphere-surface exchange. To evaluate parameterization accuracy, we compare predicted exchange fluxes to field measurements conducted over a variety of surfaces compiled in a recently developed global database of terrestrial Hg0 surface-atmosphere exchange flux measurements. To assess precision, we estimate the sensitivity of predicted fluxes to the imprecision in parameter input values, and compare this sensitivity to that derived from analysis of the global Hg0 flux database. Feasibility of implementation is evaluated according to the availability of input parameters, computational requirements, and the adequacy of uncertainty representation. Based on this assessment, we provide suggestions for improved treatment of Hg0 net exchange processes in CTMs.

  9. Incorporation of memory effects in coarse-grained modeling via the Mori-Zwanzig formalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhen; Bian, Xin; Li, Xiantao; Karniadakis, George Em

    2015-12-01

    The Mori-Zwanzig formalism for coarse-graining a complex dynamical system typically introduces memory effects. The Markovian assumption of delta-correlated fluctuating forces is often employed to simplify the formulation of coarse-grained (CG) models and numerical implementations. However, when the time scales of a system are not clearly separated, the memory effects become strong and the Markovian assumption becomes inaccurate. To this end, we incorporate memory effects into CG modeling by preserving non-Markovian interactions between CG variables, and the memory kernel is evaluated directly from microscopic dynamics. For a specific example, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of star polymer melts are performed while the corresponding CG system is defined by grouping many bonded atoms into single clusters. Then, the effective interactions between CG clusters as well as the memory kernel are obtained from the MD simulations. The constructed CG force field with a memory kernel leads to a non-Markovian dissipative particle dynamics (NM-DPD). Quantitative comparisons between the CG models with Markovian and non-Markovian approximations indicate that including the memory effects using NM-DPD yields similar results as the Markovian-based DPD if the system has clear time scale separation. However, for systems with small separation of time scales, NM-DPD can reproduce correct short-time properties that are related to how the system responds to high-frequency disturbances, which cannot be captured by the Markovian-based DPD model.

  10. Incorporation of memory effects in coarse-grained modeling via the Mori-Zwanzig formalism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zhen; Bian, Xin; Karniadakis, George Em, E-mail: george-karniadakis@brown.edu [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912 (United States); Li, Xiantao [Department of Mathematics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802 (United States)

    2015-12-28

    The Mori-Zwanzig formalism for coarse-graining a complex dynamical system typically introduces memory effects. The Markovian assumption of delta-correlated fluctuating forces is often employed to simplify the formulation of coarse-grained (CG) models and numerical implementations. However, when the time scales of a system are not clearly separated, the memory effects become strong and the Markovian assumption becomes inaccurate. To this end, we incorporate memory effects into CG modeling by preserving non-Markovian interactions between CG variables, and the memory kernel is evaluated directly from microscopic dynamics. For a specific example, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of star polymer melts are performed while the corresponding CG system is defined by grouping many bonded atoms into single clusters. Then, the effective interactions between CG clusters as well as the memory kernel are obtained from the MD simulations. The constructed CG force field with a memory kernel leads to a non-Markovian dissipative particle dynamics (NM-DPD). Quantitative comparisons between the CG models with Markovian and non-Markovian approximations indicate that including the memory effects using NM-DPD yields similar results as the Markovian-based DPD if the system has clear time scale separation. However, for systems with small separation of time scales, NM-DPD can reproduce correct short-time properties that are related to how the system responds to high-frequency disturbances, which cannot be captured by the Markovian-based DPD model.

  11. Incorporation of memory effects in coarse-grained modeling via the Mori-Zwanzig formalism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhen; Bian, Xin; Li, Xiantao; Karniadakis, George Em

    2015-12-28

    The Mori-Zwanzig formalism for coarse-graining a complex dynamical system typically introduces memory effects. The Markovian assumption of delta-correlated fluctuating forces is often employed to simplify the formulation of coarse-grained (CG) models and numerical implementations. However, when the time scales of a system are not clearly separated, the memory effects become strong and the Markovian assumption becomes inaccurate. To this end, we incorporate memory effects into CG modeling by preserving non-Markovian interactions between CG variables, and the memory kernel is evaluated directly from microscopic dynamics. For a specific example, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of star polymer melts are performed while the corresponding CG system is defined by grouping many bonded atoms into single clusters. Then, the effective interactions between CG clusters as well as the memory kernel are obtained from the MD simulations. The constructed CG force field with a memory kernel leads to a non-Markovian dissipative particle dynamics (NM-DPD). Quantitative comparisons between the CG models with Markovian and non-Markovian approximations indicate that including the memory effects using NM-DPD yields similar results as the Markovian-based DPD if the system has clear time scale separation. However, for systems with small separation of time scales, NM-DPD can reproduce correct short-time properties that are related to how the system responds to high-frequency disturbances, which cannot be captured by the Markovian-based DPD model.

  12. A Biomimetic Model of the Outer Plexiform Layer by Incorporating Memristive Devices

    CERN Document Server

    Gelencser, Andras; Toumazou, Christofer; Roska, Tamas

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we present a biorealistic model for the first part of the early vision processing by incorporating memristive nanodevices. The architecture of the proposed network is based on the organisation and functioning of the outer plexiform layer (OPL) in the vertebrate retina. We demonstrate that memristive devices are indeed a valuable building block for neuromorphic architectures, as their highly non-linear and adaptive response could be exploited for establishing ultra-dense networks with similar dynamics to their biological counterparts. We particularly show that hexagonal memristive grids can be employed for faithfully emulating the smoothing-effect occurring at the OPL for enhancing the dynamic range of the system. In addition, we employ a memristor-based thresholding scheme for detecting the edges of grayscale images, while the proposed system is also evaluated for its adaptation and fault tolerance capacity against different light or noise conditions as well as distinct device yields.

  13. Incorporating fragmentation and non-native species into distribution models to inform fluvial fish conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Andrew T; Papeş, Monica; Long, James M

    2017-09-06

    Fluvial fishes face increased imperilment from anthropogenic activities, but the specific factors contributing most to range declines are often poorly understood. For example, the shoal bass (Micropterus cataractae) is a fluvial-specialist species experiencing continual range loss, yet how perceived threats have contributed to range loss is largely unknown. We employed species distribution models (SDMs) to disentangle which factors are contributing most to shoal bass range loss by estimating a potential distribution based on natural abiotic factors and by estimating a series of current, occupied distributions that also incorporated variables characterizing land cover, non-native species, and fragmentation intensity (no fragmentation, dams only, and dams and large impoundments). Model construction allowed for interspecific relationships between non-native congeners and shoal bass to vary across fragmentation intensities. Results from the potential distribution model estimated shoal bass presence throughout much of their native basin, whereas models of current occupied distribution illustrated increased range loss as fragmentation intensified. Response curves from current occupied models indicated a potential interaction between fragmentation intensity and the relationship between shoal bass and non-native congeners, wherein non-natives may be favored at the highest fragmentation intensity. Response curves also suggested that free-flowing fragment lengths of > 100 km were necessary to support shoal bass presence. Model evaluation, including an independent validation, suggested models had favorable predictive and discriminative abilities. Similar approaches that use readily-available, diverse geospatial datasets may deliver insights into the biology and conservation needs of other fluvial species facing similar threats. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  14. Methodology for the Incorporation of Passive Component Aging Modeling into the RAVEN/ RELAP-7 Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mandelli, Diego; Rabiti, Cristian; Cogliati, Joshua; Alfonsi, Andrea; Askin Guler; Tunc Aldemir

    2014-11-01

    Passive system, structure and components (SSCs) will degrade over their operation life and this degradation may cause to reduction in the safety margins of a nuclear power plant. In traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using the event-tree/fault-tree methodology, passive SSC failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data and the true state of a specific plant is not reflected realistically. To address aging effects of passive SSCs in the traditional PRA methodology [1] does consider physics based models that account for the operating conditions in the plant, however, [1] does not include effects of surveillance/inspection. This paper represents an overall methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive components into the RAVEN/RELAP-7 environment which provides a framework for performing dynamic PRA. Dynamic PRA allows consideration of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties (including those associated with maintenance activities) in a consistent phenomenological and probabilistic framework and is often needed when there is complex process/hardware/software/firmware/ human interaction [2]. Dynamic PRA has gained attention recently due to difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics based models and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems. RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control Environment) [3] is a software package under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as an online control logic driver and post-processing tool. It is coupled to the plant transient code RELAP-7 (Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program) also currently under development at INL [3], as well as RELAP 5 [4]. The overall methodology aims to: • Address multiple aging mechanisms involving large number of components in a computational feasible manner where sequencing of events is conditioned on the physical conditions predicted in a simulation

  15. Model-Based Detection of Radioactive Contraband for Harbor Defense Incorporating Compton Scattering Physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candy, J V; Chambers, D H; Breitfeller, E F; Guidry, B L; Verbeke, J M; Axelrod, M A; Sale, K E; Meyer, A M

    2010-03-02

    The detection of radioactive contraband is a critical problem is maintaining national security for any country. Photon emissions from threat materials challenge both detection and measurement technologies especially when concealed by various types of shielding complicating the transport physics significantly. This problem becomes especially important when ships are intercepted by U.S. Coast Guard harbor patrols searching for contraband. The development of a sequential model-based processor that captures both the underlying transport physics of gamma-ray emissions including Compton scattering and the measurement of photon energies offers a physics-based approach to attack this challenging problem. The inclusion of a basic radionuclide representation of absorbed/scattered photons at a given energy along with interarrival times is used to extract the physics information available from the noisy measurements portable radiation detection systems used to interdict contraband. It is shown that this physics representation can incorporated scattering physics leading to an 'extended' model-based structure that can be used to develop an effective sequential detection technique. The resulting model-based processor is shown to perform quite well based on data obtained from a controlled experiment.

  16. Incorporation of a Wind Generator Model into a Dynamic Power Flow Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angeles-Camacho C.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy is nowadays one of the most cost-effective and practical options for electric generation from renewable resources. However, increased penetration of wind generation causes the power networks to be more depend on, and vulnerable to, the varying wind speed. Modeling is a tool which can provide valuable information about the interaction between wind farms and the power network to which they are connected. This paper develops a realistic characterization of a wind generator. The wind generator model is incorporated into an algorithm to investigate its contribution to the stability of the power network in the time domain. The tool obtained is termed dynamic power flow. The wind generator model takes on account the wind speed and the reactive power consumption by induction generators. Dynamic power flow analysis is carried-out using real wind data at 10-minute time intervals collected for one meteorological station. The generation injected at one point into the network provides active power locally and is found to reduce global power losses. However, the power supplied is time-varying and causes fluctuations in voltage magnitude and power fl ows in transmission lines.

  17. Incorporating Student Mobility in Achievement Growth Modeling: A Cross-Classified Multiple Membership Growth Curve Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grady, Matthew W.; Beretvas, S. Natasha

    2010-01-01

    Multiple membership random effects models (MMREMs) have been developed for use in situations where individuals are members of multiple higher level organizational units. Despite their availability and the frequency with which multiple membership structures are encountered, no studies have extended the MMREM approach to hierarchical growth curve…

  18. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhao, Shunli [Research Institute, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd, Shanghai 201900 (China); Wu, Guangxin [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhang, Jieyu, E-mail: zjy6162@staff.shu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Yang, Zhiliang [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China)

    2016-05-25

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  19. A land use regression model incorporating data on industrial point source pollution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Chen; Yuming Wang; Peiwu Li; Yaqin Ji; Shaofei Kong; Zhiyong Li; Zhipeng Bai

    2012-01-01

    Advancing the understanding of the spatial aspects of air pollution in the city regional environment is an area where improved methods can be of great benefit to exposure assessment and polcy support.We created land use regression (LUR) models for SO2,NO2 and PM10for Tianjin,China.Traffic volumes,road networks,land use data,population density,meteorological conditions,physical conditions and satellite-derived greenness,brightness and wetness were used for predicting SO2,NO2 and PM10 concentrations.We incorporated data on industrial point sources to improve LUR model performance.In order to consider the impact of different sources,we calculated the PSIndex,LSIndex and area of different land use types (agricultural land,industrial land,commercial land,residential land,green space and water area) within different buffer radii (1 to 20 km).This method makes up for the lack of consideration of source impact based on the LUR model.Remote sensing-derived variables were significantly correlated with gaseous pollutant concentrations such as SO2 and NO2.R2 values of the multiple linear regression equations for SO2,NO2 and PM10 were 0.78,0.89 and 0.84,respectively,and the RMSE values were 0.32,0.18 and 0.21,respectively.Model predictions at validation monitoring sites went well with predictions generally within 15% of measured values.Compared to the relationship between dependent variables and simple variables (such as traffic variables or meteorological condition variables),the relationship between dependent variables and integrated variables was more consistent with a linear relationship.Such integration has a discernable influence on both the overall model prediction and health effects assessment on the spatial distribution of air pollution in the city region.

  20. A land use regression model incorporating data on industrial point source pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li; Wang, Yuming; Li, Peiwu; Ji, Yaqin; Kong, Shaofei; Li, Zhiyong; Bai, Zhipeng

    2012-01-01

    Advancing the understanding of the spatial aspects of air pollution in the city regional environment is an area where improved methods can be of great benefit to exposure assessment and policy support. We created land use regression (LUR) models for SO2, NO2 and PM10 for Tianjin, China. Traffic volumes, road networks, land use data, population density, meteorological conditions, physical conditions and satellite-derived greenness, brightness and wetness were used for predicting SO2, NO2 and PM10 concentrations. We incorporated data on industrial point sources to improve LUR model performance. In order to consider the impact of different sources, we calculated the PSIndex, LSIndex and area of different land use types (agricultural land, industrial land, commercial land, residential land, green space and water area) within different buffer radii (1 to 20 km). This method makes up for the lack of consideration of source impact based on the LUR model. Remote sensing-derived variables were significantly correlated with gaseous pollutant concentrations such as SO2 and NO2. R2 values of the multiple linear regression equations for SO2, NO2 and PM10 were 0.78, 0.89 and 0.84, respectively, and the RMSE values were 0.32, 0.18 and 0.21, respectively. Model predictions at validation monitoring sites went well with predictions generally within 15% of measured values. Compared to the relationship between dependent variables and simple variables (such as traffic variables or meteorological condition variables), the relationship between dependent variables and integrated variables was more consistent with a linear relationship. Such integration has a discernable influence on both the overall model prediction and health effects assessment on the spatial distribution of air pollution in the city region.

  1. Incorporating food web dynamics into ecological restoration: A modeling approach for river ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellmore, J. Ryan; Benjamin, Joseph R.; Newsom, Michael; Bountry, Jennifer A.; Dombroski, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Restoration is frequently aimed at the recovery of target species, but also influences the larger food web in which these species participate. Effects of restoration on this broader network of organisms can influence target species both directly and indirectly via changes in energy flow through food webs. To help incorporate these complexities into river restoration planning we constructed a model that links river food web dynamics to in-stream physical habitat and riparian vegetation conditions. We present an application of the model to the Methow River, Washington (USA), a location of on-going restoration aimed at recovering salmon. Three restoration strategies were simulated: riparian vegetation restoration, nutrient augmentation via salmon carcass addition, and side-channel reconnection. We also added populations of nonnative aquatic snails and fish to the modeled food web to explore how changes in food web structure mediate responses to restoration. Simulations suggest that side-channel reconnection may be a better strategy than carcass addition and vegetation planting for improving conditions for salmon in this river segment. However, modeled responses were strongly sensitive to changes in the structure of the food web. The addition of nonnative snails and fish modified pathways of energy through the food web, which negated restoration improvements. This finding illustrates that forecasting responses to restoration may require accounting for the structure of food webs, and that changes in this structure—as might be expected with the spread of invasive species—could compromise restoration outcomes. Unlike habitat-based approaches to restoration assessment that focus on the direct effects of physical habitat conditions on single species of interest, our approach dynamically links the success of target organisms to the success of competitors, predators, and prey. By elucidating the direct and indirect pathways by which restoration affects target species

  2. Endogenous hypothermic response to hypoxia reduces brain injury: Implications for modeling hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy and therapeutic hypothermia in neonatal mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinboth, Barbara S; Köster, Christian; Abberger, Hanna; Prager, Sebastian; Bendix, Ivo; Felderhoff-Müser, Ursula; Herz, Josephine

    2016-09-01

    Hypothermia treatment (HT) is the only formally endorsed treatment recommended for hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE). However, its success in protecting against brain injury is limited with a number to treat of 7-8. The identification of the target mechanisms of HIE in combination with HT will help to explain ineffective therapy outcomes but also requires stable experimental models in order to establish further neuroprotective therapies. Despite clinical and experimental indications for an endogenous thermoregulatory response to HIE, the potential effects on HIE-induced brain injury have largely been neglected in pre-clinical studies. In the present study we analyzed gray and white matter injury and neurobehavioral outcome in neonatal mice considering the endogenous thermoregulatory response during HIE combined with HT. HIE was induced in postnatal day (PND) 9 C57BL/6 mice through occlusion of the right common carotid artery followed by one hour of hypoxia. Hypoxia was performed at 8% or 10% oxygen (O2) at two different temperatures based on the nesting body core temperature. Using the model which mimics the clinical situation most closely, i.e. through maintenance of the nesting temperature during hypoxia we compared two mild HT protocols (rectal temperature difference 3°C for 4h), initiated either immediately after HIE or with delay of 2h. Injury was determined by histology, immunohistochemistry and western blot analyses at PND 16 and PND 51. Functional outcome was evaluated by Rota Rod, Elevated Plus Maze, Open Field and Novel Object Recognition testing at PND 30-PND 36 and PND 44-PND 50. We show that HIE modeling in neonatal mice is associated with a significant endogenous drop in body core temperature by 2°C resulting in profound neuroprotection, expressed by reduced neuropathological injury scores, reduced loss of neurons, axonal structures, myelin and decreased astrogliosis. Immediately applied post-hypoxic HT revealed slight advantages over a delayed

  3. Bias in diet determination: incorporating traditional methods in Bayesian mixing models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco-Trecu, Valentina; Drago, Massimiliano; Riet-Sapriza, Federico G; Parnell, Andrew; Frau, Rosina; Inchausti, Pablo

    2013-01-01

    There are not "universal methods" to determine diet composition of predators. Most traditional methods are biased because of their reliance on differential digestibility and the recovery of hard items. By relying on assimilated food, stable isotope and Bayesian mixing models (SIMMs) resolve many biases of traditional methods. SIMMs can incorporate prior information (i.e. proportional diet composition) that may improve the precision in the estimated dietary composition. However few studies have assessed the performance of traditional methods and SIMMs with and without informative priors to study the predators' diets. Here we compare the diet compositions of the South American fur seal and sea lions obtained by scats analysis and by SIMMs-UP (uninformative priors) and assess whether informative priors (SIMMs-IP) from the scat analysis improved the estimated diet composition compared to SIMMs-UP. According to the SIMM-UP, while pelagic species dominated the fur seal's diet the sea lion's did not have a clear dominance of any prey. In contrast, SIMM-IP's diets compositions were dominated by the same preys as in scat analyses. When prior information influenced SIMMs' estimates, incorporating informative priors improved the precision in the estimated diet composition at the risk of inducing biases in the estimates. If preys isotopic data allow discriminating preys' contributions to diets, informative priors should lead to more precise but unbiased estimated diet composition. Just as estimates of diet composition obtained from traditional methods are critically interpreted because of their biases, care must be exercised when interpreting diet composition obtained by SIMMs-IP. The best approach to obtain a near-complete view of predators' diet composition should involve the simultaneous consideration of different sources of partial evidence (traditional methods, SIMM-UP and SIMM-IP) in the light of natural history of the predator species so as to reliably ascertain and

  4. Modelling of Dynamic Rock Fracture Process with a Rate-Dependent Combined Continuum Damage-Embedded Discontinuity Model Incorporating Microstructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saksala, Timo

    2016-10-01

    This paper deals with numerical modelling of rock fracture under dynamic loading. For this end, a combined continuum damage-embedded discontinuity model is applied in finite element modelling of crack propagation in rock. In this model, the strong loading rate sensitivity of rock is captured by the rate-dependent continuum scalar damage model that controls the pre-peak nonlinear hardening part of rock behaviour. The post-peak exponential softening part of the rock behaviour is governed by the embedded displacement discontinuity model describing the mode I, mode II and mixed mode fracture of rock. Rock heterogeneity is incorporated in the present approach by random description of the rock mineral texture based on the Voronoi tessellation. The model performance is demonstrated in numerical examples where the uniaxial tension and compression tests on rock are simulated. Finally, the dynamic three-point bending test of a semicircular disc is simulated in order to show that the model correctly predicts the strain rate-dependent tensile strengths as well as the failure modes of rock in this test. Special emphasis is laid on modelling the loading rate sensitivity of tensile strength of Laurentian granite.

  5. Incorporating H2 Dynamics and Inhibition into a Microbially Based Methanogenesis Model for Restored Wetland Sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, David; Jaffe, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Estimates of global CH4 emissions from wetlands indicate that wetlands are the largest natural source of CH4 to the atmosphere. In this paper, we propose that there is a missing component to these models that should be addressed. CH4 is produced in wetland sediments from the microbial degradation of organic carbon through multiple fermentation steps and methanogenesis pathways. There are multiple sources of carbon for methananogenesis; in vegetated wetland sediments, microbial communities consume root exudates as a major source of organic carbon. In many methane models propionate is used as a model carbon molecule. This simple sugar is fermented into acetate and H2, acetate is transformed to methane and CO2, while the H2 and CO2 are used to form an additional CH4 molecule. The hydrogenotrophic pathway involves the equilibrium of two dissolved gases, CH4 and H2. In an effort to limit CH4 emissions from wetlands, there has been growing interest in finding ways to limit plant transport of soil gases through root systems. Changing planted species, or genetically modifying new species of plants may control this transport of soil gases. While this may decrease the direct emissions of methane, there is little understanding about how H2 dynamics may feedback into overall methane production. The results of an incubation study were combined with a new model of propionate degradation for methanogenesis that also examines other natural parameters (i.e. gas transport through plants). This presentation examines how we would expect this model to behave in a natural field setting with changing sulfate and carbon loading schemes. These changes can be controlled through new plant species and other management practices. Next, we compare the behavior of two variations of this model, with or without the incorporation of H2 interactions, with changing sulfate, carbon loading and root volatilization. Results show that while the models behave similarly there may be a discrepancy of nearly

  6. Properties of a general PK/PD model of antibody-ligand interactions for therapeutic antibodies that bind to soluble endogenous targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davda, Jasmine P; Hansen, Ryan J

    2010-01-01

    Antibodies that target endogenous soluble ligands are an important class of biotherapeutic agents. While much focus has been placed on characterization of antibody pharmacokinetics, less emphasis has been given to characterization of antibody effects on their soluble targets. We describe here the properties of a generalized mechanism-based PK/PD model used to characterize the in vivo interaction of an antibody and an endogenous soluble ligand. The assumptions and properties of the model are explored, and situations are described when deviations from the basic assumptions may be necessary. This model is most useful for in vivo situations where both antibody and ligand levels are available following drug administration. For a given antibody exposure, the extent and duration of suppression of free ligand is impacted by the apparent affinity of the interaction, as well as by the rate of ligand turnover. The applicability of the general equilibrium model of in vivo antibody-ligand interaction is demonstrated with an anti-Aß antibody.

  7. Nanofibers for drug delivery – incorporation and release of model molecules, influence of molecular weight and polymer structure

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Nanofibers were prepared from polycaprolactone, polylactide and polyvinyl alcohol using NanospiderTM technology. Polyethylene glycols with molecular weights of 2 000, 6 000, 10 000 and 20 000 g/mol, which can be used to moderate the release profile of incorporated pharmacologically active compounds, served as model molecules. They were terminated by aromatic isocyanate and incorporated into the nanofibers. The release of these molecules into an aqueous environment was investigated. The influe...

  8. The endogenous protein content of ruminant proximal duodenal digesta

    OpenAIRE

    Bartram, Christopher Gordon

    1987-01-01

    Protein arriving at the ruminant proximal duodenum consists of microbial protein, undegraded feed protein and endogenous protein. In this study, endogenous protein is defined as that fraction of the digesta derived from the animal itself (e.g. enzymes, plasma proteins, sloughed cells and mucus), not including any endogenous protein which may have been incorporated into the microorganisms. Recent feeding schemes (e.g. ARC 1980, 1984) require an accurate value of the degradability of feed i...

  9. Anisotropic constitutive model incorporating multiple damage mechanisms for multiscale simulation of dental enamel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Songyun; Scheider, Ingo; Bargmann, Swantje

    2016-09-01

    An anisotropic constitutive model is proposed in the framework of finite deformation to capture several damage mechanisms occurring in the microstructure of dental enamel, a hierarchical bio-composite. It provides the basis for a homogenization approach for an efficient multiscale (in this case: multiple hierarchy levels) investigation of the deformation and damage behavior. The influence of tension-compression asymmetry and fiber-matrix interaction on the nonlinear deformation behavior of dental enamel is studied by 3D micromechanical simulations under different loading conditions and fiber lengths. The complex deformation behavior and the characteristics and interaction of three damage mechanisms in the damage process of enamel are well captured. The proposed constitutive model incorporating anisotropic damage is applied to the first hierarchical level of dental enamel and validated by experimental results. The effect of the fiber orientation on the damage behavior and compressive strength is studied by comparing micro-pillar experiments of dental enamel at the first hierarchical level in multiple directions of fiber orientation. A very good agreement between computational and experimental results is found for the damage evolution process of dental enamel.

  10. Incorporating a Wheeled Vehicle Model in a New Monocular Visual Odometry Algorithm for Dynamic Outdoor Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhua Jiang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a monocular visual odometry algorithm that incorporates a wheeled vehicle model for ground vehicles. The main innovation of this algorithm is to use the single-track bicycle model to interpret the relationship between the yaw rate and side slip angle, which are the two most important parameters that describe the motion of a wheeled vehicle. Additionally, the pitch angle is also considered since the planar-motion hypothesis often fails due to the dynamic characteristics of wheel suspensions and tires in real-world environments. Linearization is used to calculate a closed-form solution of the motion parameters that works as a hypothesis generator in a RAndom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC scheme to reduce the complexity in solving equations involving trigonometric. All inliers found are used to refine the winner solution through minimizing the reprojection error. Finally, the algorithm is applied to real-time on-board visual localization applications. Its performance is evaluated by comparing against the state-of-the-art monocular visual odometry methods using both synthetic data and publicly available datasets over several kilometers in dynamic outdoor environments.

  11. Alternative Methods of Classifying Eating Disorders: Models Incorporating Comorbid Psychopathology and Associated Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildes, Jennifer E.; Marcus, Marsha D.

    2013-01-01

    There is increasing recognition of the limitations of current approaches to psychiatric classification. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the eating disorders (EDs). Several alternative methods of classifying EDs have been proposed, which can be divided into two major groups: 1) those that have classified individuals on the basis of disordered eating symptoms; and, 2) those that have classified individuals on the basis of comorbid psychopathology and associated features. Several reviews have addressed symptom-based approaches to ED classification, but we are aware of no paper that has critically examined comorbidity-based systems. Thus, in this paper, we review models of classifying EDs that incorporate information about comorbid psychopathology and associated features. Early approaches are described first, followed by more recent scholarly contributions to comorbidity-based ED classification. Importantly, several areas of overlap among the classification schemes are identified that may have implications for future research. In particular, we note similarities between early models and newer studies in the salience of impulsivity, compulsivity, distress, and inhibition versus risk taking. Finally, we close with directions for future work, with an emphasis on neurobiologically-informed research to elucidate basic behavioral and neuropsychological correlates of comorbidity-based ED classes, as well as implications for treatment. PMID:23416343

  12. Exciton delocalization incorporated drift-diffusion model for bulk-heterojunction organic solar cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zi Shuai; Sha, Wei E. I.; Choy, Wallace C. H.

    2016-12-01

    Modeling the charge-generation process is highly important to understand device physics and optimize power conversion efficiency of bulk-heterojunction organic solar cells (OSCs). Free carriers are generated by both ultrafast exciton delocalization and slow exciton diffusion and dissociation at the heterojunction interface. In this work, we developed a systematic numerical simulation to describe the charge-generation process by a modified drift-diffusion model. The transport, recombination, and collection of free carriers are incorporated to fully capture the device response. The theoretical results match well with the state-of-the-art high-performance organic solar cells. It is demonstrated that the increase of exciton delocalization ratio reduces the energy loss in the exciton diffusion-dissociation process, and thus, significantly improves the device efficiency, especially for the short-circuit current. By changing the exciton delocalization ratio, OSC performances are comprehensively investigated under the conditions of short-circuit and open-circuit. Particularly, bulk recombination dependent fill factor saturation is unveiled and understood. As a fundamental electrical analysis of the delocalization mechanism, our work is important to understand and optimize the high-performance OSCs.

  13. Building a Better Model: A Personalized Breast Cancer Risk Model Incorporating Breast Density to Stratify Risk and Improve Application of Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    women with a diagnosis of breast cancer from 2003 to 2012 and enrolled in a larger study on MD were evaluated. Operative and pathology reports were...AD______________ AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-11-1-0545 TITLE: Building a Better Model: A Personalized Breast Cancer Risk Model Incorporating Breast ...Better Model: A Personalized Breast Cancer Risk Model Incorporating Breast Density to Stratify Risk and Improve Application of Resources 5a. CONTRACT

  14. Incorporating Geochemical And Microbial Kinetics In Reactive Transport Models For Generation Of Acid Rock Drainage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andre, B. J.; Rajaram, H.; Silverstein, J.

    2010-12-01

    diffusion model at the scale of a single rock is developed incorporating the proposed kinetic rate expressions. Simulations of initiation, washout and AMD flows are discussed to gain a better understanding of the role of porosity, effective diffusivity and reactive surface area in generating AMD. Simulations indicate that flow boundary conditions control generation of acid rock drainage as porosity increases.

  15. Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitze, Timo

    We analyse the problem of parameter inconsistency in panel data econometrics due to the correlation of exogenous variables with the error term.A common solution in this setting is to use Instrumental-Variable (IV) estimation in the spirit of Hausman-Taylor (1981). However, some potential shortcom......We analyse the problem of parameter inconsistency in panel data econometrics due to the correlation of exogenous variables with the error term.A common solution in this setting is to use Instrumental-Variable (IV) estimation in the spirit of Hausman-Taylor (1981). However, some potential...... shortcomings of the latter approach recently gave rise to the use of non-IV two-step estimators. Given their growing number of empirical applications, we aim to systematically compare the performance of IV and non-IV approaches in the presence of time-fixed variables and right hand side endogeneity using Monte...

  16. Adolescent Decision-Making Processes regarding University Entry: A Model Incorporating Cultural Orientation, Motivation and Occupational Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup

    2013-01-01

    This study tested a newly developed model of the cognitive decision-making processes of senior high school students related to university entry. The model incorporated variables derived from motivation theory (i.e. expectancy-value theory and the theory of reasoned action), literature on cultural orientation and occupational considerations. A…

  17. Using a cognitive architecture in educational and recreational games : How to incorporate a model in your App

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taatgen, Niels A.; de Weerd, Harmen; Reitter, David; Ritter, Frank

    2016-01-01

    We present a Swift re-implementation of the ACT-R cognitive architecture, which can be used to quickly build iOS Apps that incorporate an ACT-R model as a core feature. We discuss how this implementation can be used in an example model, and explore the breadth of possibilities by presenting six Apps

  18. Adolescent Decision-Making Processes regarding University Entry: A Model Incorporating Cultural Orientation, Motivation and Occupational Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup

    2013-01-01

    This study tested a newly developed model of the cognitive decision-making processes of senior high school students related to university entry. The model incorporated variables derived from motivation theory (i.e. expectancy-value theory and the theory of reasoned action), literature on cultural orientation and occupational considerations. A…

  19. A Fault-Cored Anticline Boundary Element Model Incorporating the Combined Fault Slip and Buckling Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Jeng Huang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available We develop a folding boundary element model in a medium containing a fault and elastic layers to show that anticlines growing over slipping reverse faults can be significantly amplified by mechanical layering buckling under horizontal shortening. Previous studies suggested that folds over blind reverse faults grow primarily during deformation increments associated with slips on the fault during and immediately after earthquakes. Under this assumption, the potential for earthquakes on blind faults can be determined directly from fold geometry because the amount of slip on the fault can be estimated directly from the fold geometry using the solution for a dislocation in an elastic half-space. Studies that assume folds grown solely by slip on a fault may therefore significantly overestimate fault slip. Our boundary element technique demonstrates that the fold amplitude produced in a medium containing a fault and elastic layers with free slip and subjected to layer-parallel shortening can grow to more than twice the fold amplitude produced in homogeneous media without mechanical layering under the same amount of shortening. In addition, the fold wavelengths produced by the combined fault slip and buckling mechanisms may be narrower than folds produced by fault slip in an elastic half space by a factor of two. We also show that subsurface fold geometry of the Kettleman Hills Anticline in Central California inferred from seismic reflection image is consistent with a model that incorporates layer buckling over a dipping, blind reverse fault and the coseismic uplift pattern produced during a 1985 earthquake centered over the anticline forelimb is predicted by the model.

  20. Self-Organized Criticality in a Random Network Model

    OpenAIRE

    Nirei, Makoto

    1998-01-01

    A new model of self-organized criticality is defined by incorporating a random network model in order to explain endogenous complex fluctuations of economic aggregates. The model can feature many globally interactive systems such as economies or societies.

  1. Incorporation of Fine-Grained Sediment Erodibility Measurements into Sediment Transport Modeling, Capitol Lake, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Andrew W.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Elias, Edwin; Jones, Craig

    2008-01-01

    lab with Sedflume, an apparatus for measuring sediment erosion-parameters. In this report, we present results of the characterization of fine-grained sediment erodibility within Capitol Lake. The erodibility data were incorporated into the previously developed hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. Model simulations using the measured erodibility parameters were conducted to provide more robust estimates of the overall magnitudes and spatial patterns of sediment transport resulting from restoration of the Deschutes Estuary.

  2. A diagnostic model incorporating P50 sensory gating and neuropsychological tests for schizophrenia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Chi Shan

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Endophenotypes in schizophrenia research is a contemporary approach to studying this heterogeneous mental illness, and several candidate neurophysiological markers (e.g. P50 sensory gating and neuropsychological tests (e.g. Continuous Performance Test (CPT and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST have been proposed. However, the clinical utility of a single marker appears to be limited. In the present study, we aimed to construct a diagnostic model incorporating P50 sensory gating with other neuropsychological tests in order to improve the clinical utility. METHODS: We recruited clinically stable outpatients meeting DSM-IV criteria of schizophrenia and age- and gender-matched healthy controls. Participants underwent P50 sensory gating experimental sessions and batteries of neuropsychological tests, including CPT, WCST and Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale Third Edition (WAIS-III. RESULTS: A total of 106 schizophrenia patients and 74 healthy controls were enrolled. Compared with healthy controls, the patient group had significantly a larger S2 amplitude, and thus poorer P50 gating ratio (gating ratio = S2/S1. In addition, schizophrenia patients had a poorer performance on neuropsychological tests. We then developed a diagnostic model by using multivariable logistic regression analysis to differentiate patients from healthy controls. The final model included the following covariates: abnormal P50 gating (defined as P50 gating ratio >0.4, three subscales derived from the WAIS-III (Arithmetic, Block Design, and Performance IQ, sensitivity index from CPT and smoking status. This model had an adequate accuracy (concordant percentage = 90.4%; c-statistic = 0.904; Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test, p = 0.64>0.05. CONCLUSION: To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest study to date using P50 sensory gating in subjects of Chinese ethnicity and the first to use P50 sensory gating along with other neuropsychological tests

  3. Brain-derived neurotrophic factors increase the proliferation and differentiation of endogenous neural stem cells in mouse models of cerebral infarction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dawei Zang; Juan Liu; Xianhua Zuo; Surindar Cheema

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: It has been confirmed that brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) can promote the proliferation of neural stem cells (NSCs) and protect neuron-like cells in vitro. However, its effect on endogenous NSCs in vivo is still unclear.OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether BDNF can induce the endogenous NSCs to proliferate and differentiate into the neurons in the mice model of cerebral infarction.DESIGN: A synchronal controlled observation.SETTINGS: Department of Neurology, Microbiology Division of the Department of Laboratory, Tianjin First Central Hospital; Howard Florey Institute, Medical College, the University of Melbourne.MATERIALS: Twenty-four pure breed C57BL/6J mice at the age of 10 weeks old (12 males and 12 females)were divided into saline control group and BDNF-treated group, 6 males and 6 females in each group.METHODS: The experiments were performed at the University of Melbourne from July 2004 to February 2005. ① The left middle cerebral artery (MCA) was ligated in both groups to establish models of cerebral infarction and the Matsushita measuring method was used to monitor the blood flow of the lesioned region supplied by MCA. 75% reduction of blood flow should be reached in the lesioned region. ② At 24 hours after infarction, mice in the BDNF-treated group were administrated with BDNF, which was slowly delivered using an ALZET osmium pump design. BDNF was dissolved in saline at the dosage of 500 mg/kg and injected into the pump, which could release the solution consistently in the following 28 days. The mice in the saline control group accepted the same volume of saline at 24 hours after infarction. ③ The Rotarod function test began at 1 week preoperatively, the time stayed on Rotarod was recorded. The mice were tested once a day till the end of the experiment. At 4 weeks post cerebral infarction, double labeling of Nestin and GFAP, BⅢ tubulin and CNPase immunostaining was performed to observe the differentiation directions of the re

  4. Bayesian hierarchical models for network meta-analysis incorporating nonignorable missingness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jing; Chu, Haitao; Hong, Hwanhee; Virnig, Beth A; Carlin, Bradley P

    2015-07-28

    Network meta-analysis expands the scope of a conventional pairwise meta-analysis to simultaneously compare multiple treatments, synthesizing both direct and indirect information and thus strengthening inference. Since most of trials only compare two treatments, a typical data set in a network meta-analysis managed as a trial-by-treatment matrix is extremely sparse, like an incomplete block structure with significant missing data. Zhang et al. proposed an arm-based method accounting for correlations among different treatments within the same trial and assuming that absent arms are missing at random. However, in randomized controlled trials, nonignorable missingness or missingness not at random may occur due to deliberate choices of treatments at the design stage. In addition, those undertaking a network meta-analysis may selectively choose treatments to include in the analysis, which may also lead to missingness not at random. In this paper, we extend our previous work to incorporate missingness not at random using selection models. The proposed method is then applied to two network meta-analyses and evaluated through extensive simulation studies. We also provide comprehensive comparisons of a commonly used contrast-based method and the arm-based method via simulations in a technical appendix under missing completely at random and missing at random.

  5. Incorporating organizational factors into probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants through canonical probabilistic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galan, S.F. [Dpto. de Inteligencia Artificial, E.T.S.I. Informatica (UNED), Juan del Rosal, 16, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: seve@dia.uned.es; Mosleh, A. [2100A Marie Mount Hall, Materials and Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)]. E-mail: mosleh@umd.edu; Izquierdo, J.M. [Area de Modelado y Simulacion, Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Justo Dorado, 11, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: jmir@csn.es

    2007-08-15

    The {omega}-factor approach is a method that explicitly incorporates organizational factors into Probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Bayesian networks (BNs) are the underlying formalism used in this approach. They have a structural part formed by a graph whose nodes represent organizational variables, and a parametric part that consists of conditional probabilities, each of them quantifying organizational influences between one variable and its parents in the graph. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we discuss some important limitations of current procedures in the {omega}-factor approach for either assessing conditional probabilities from experts or estimating them from data. We illustrate the discussion with an example that uses data from Licensee Events Reports of nuclear power plants for the estimation task. Second, we introduce significant improvements in the way BNs for the {omega}-factor approach can be constructed, so that parameter acquisition becomes easier and more intuitive. The improvements are based on the use of noisy-OR gates as model of multicausal interaction between each BN node and its parents.

  6. Conformational preferences of proline derivatives incorporated into vasopressin analogues: NMR and molecular modelling studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikorska, Emilia; Sobolewski, Dariusz; Kwiatkowska, Anna

    2012-04-01

    In this study, arginine vasopressin analogues modified with proline derivatives - indoline-2-carboxylic acid (Ica), (2S,4R)-4-(naphthalene-2-ylmethyl)pyrrolidine-2-carboxylic acid (Nmp), (2S,4S)-4-aminopyroglutamic acid (APy) and (2R,4S)-4-aminopyroglutamic acid, (Apy) - were examined using NMR spectroscopy and molecular modelling methods. The results have shown that Ica is involved in the formation of the cis peptide bond. Moreover, it reduces to a great extent the conformational flexibility of the peptide. In turn, incorporation of (2S,4R)-Nmp stabilizes the backbone conformation, which is heavily influenced by the pyrrolidine ring. However, the aromatic part of the Nmp side chain exhibits a high degree of conformational freedom. With analogues IV and V, introduction of the 4-aminopyroglumatic acid reduces locally conformational space of the peptides, but it also results in weaker interactions with the dodecylphosphocholine/sodium dodecyl sulphate micelle. Admittedly, both analogues are adsorbed on the micelle's surface but they do not penetrate into its core. With analogue V, the interactions between the peptide and the micelle seem to be so weak that conformational equilibrium is established between different bound states.

  7. Elastic Properties of Natural Sea Surface Films Incorporated with Solid Dust Particles: Model Baltic Sea Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Z. Mazurek

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Floating dust-originated solid particles at air-water interfaces will interact with one another and disturb the smoothness of such a composite surface affecting its dilational elasticity. To quantify the effect, surface pressure (Π versus film area (A isotherm, and stress-relaxation (Π-time measurements were performed for monoparticulate layers of the model hydrophobic material (of μm-diameter and differentiated hydrophobicity corresponding to the water contact angles (CA ranging from 60 to 140° deposited at surfaces of surfactant-containing original seawater and were studied with a Langmuir trough system. The composite surface dilational modulus predicted from the theoretical approach, in which natural dust load signatures (particle number flux, daily deposition rate, and diameter spectra originated from in situ field studies performed along Baltic Sea near-shore line stations, agreed well with the direct experimentally derived data. The presence of seawater surfactants affected wettability of the solid material which was evaluated with different CA techniques applicable to powdered samples. Surface energetics of the particle-subphase interactions was expressed in terms of the particle removal energy, contact cross-sectional areas, collapse energies, and so forth. The hydrophobic particles incorporation at a sea surface film structure increased the elasticity modulus by a factor K (1.29–1.58. The particle-covered seawater revealed a viscoelastic behavior with the characteristic relaxation times ranging from 2.6 to 68.5 sec.

  8. Short-Lived Human Umbilical Cord-Blood-Derived Neural Stem Cells Influence the Endogenous Secretome and Increase the Number of Endogenous Neural Progenitors in a Rat Model of Lacunar Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jablonska, Anna; Drela, Katarzyna; Wojcik-Stanaszek, Luiza; Janowski, Miroslaw; Zalewska, Teresa; Lukomska, Barbara

    2016-11-01

    Stroke is the leading cause of severe disability, and lacunar stroke is related to cognitive decline and hemiparesis. There is no effective treatment for the majority of patients with stroke. Thus, stem cell-based regenerative medicine has drawn a growing body of attention due to the capabilities for trophic factor expression and neurogenesis enhancement. Moreover, it was shown in an experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) model that even short-lived stem cells can be therapeutic, and we have previously observed that phenomenon indirectly. Here, in a rat model of lacunar stroke, we investigated the molecular mechanisms underlying the positive therapeutic effects of short-lived human umbilical cord-blood-derived neural stem cells (HUCB-NSCs) through the distinct measurement of exogenous human and endogenous rat trophic factors. We have also evaluated neurogenesis and metalloproteinase activity as cellular components of therapeutic activity. As expected, we observed an increased proliferation and migration of progenitors, as well as metalloproteinase activity up to 14 days post transplantation. These changes were most prominent at the 7-day time point when we observed 30 % increases in the number of bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU)-positive cells in HUCB-NSC transplanted animals. The expression of human trophic factors was present until 7 days post transplantation, which correlated well with the survival of the human graft. For these 7 days, the level of messenger RNA (mRNA) in the analyzed trophic factors was from 300-fold for CNTF to 10,000-fold for IGF, much higher compared to constitutive expression in HUCB-NSCs in vitro. What is interesting is that there was no increase in the expression of rat trophic factors during the human graft survival, compared to that in non-transplanted animals. However, there was a prolongation of a period of increased trophic expression until 14 days post transplantation, while, in non-transplanted animals, there was a

  9. Incorporating Geological Effects in Modeling of Revegetation Strategies for Salt-Affected Landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke; Bell; Hobbs; George

    1999-07-01

    / This paper synthesizes results of research into the impact that major faults have on dryland salinity and the development of revegetation treatments in the wheatbelt of Western Australia. Currently, landscape planning does not routinely incorporate geology, but this research shows that faults can have a dramatic impact on land and stream salinization and on the effectiveness of revegetation treatments, and evidence exists that other geological features can have a similar influence. This research shows that faults can be identified from airborne magnetic data, they can be assigned a characteristic hydraulic conductivity based on simple borehole tests, and four other geological features that are expected to affect land and stream salinity could be identified in airborne geophysical data. A geological theme map could then be created to which characteristic hydraulic conductivities could be assigned for use in computer groundwater models to improve prediction of the effectiveness of revegetation treatments and thus enhance the landscape planning process. The work highlights the difficulties of using standard sampling and statistical techniques to investigate regional phenomena and presents an integrated approach combining small-scale sampling with broad-scale observations to provide input into a modeling exercise. It is suggested that such approaches are vital if landscape- and regional-scale processes are to be understood and managed. The way in which the problem is perceived (holistically or piecemeal) affects the way treatments are designed and their effectiveness: past approaches have failed to integrate the various scales and processes involved. Effective solutions require an integrated holistic response.KEY WORDS: Dryland salinity; Geology; Landscape; Revegetation integrationhttp://link.springer-ny.com/link/service/journals/00267/bibs/24n1p99.html

  10. Sensitivity studies for incorporating the direct effect of sulfate aerosols into climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Mary Rawlings Lamberton

    2000-09-01

    Aerosols have been identified as a major element of the climate system known to scatter and absorb solar and infrared radiation, but the development of procedures for representing them is still rudimentary. This study addresses the need to improve the treatment of sulfate aerosols in climate models by investigating how sensitive radiative particles are to varying specific sulfate aerosol properties. The degree to which sulfate particles absorb or scatter radiation, termed the direct effect, varies with the size distribution of particles, the aerosol mass density, the aerosol refractive indices, the relative humidity and the concentration of the aerosol. This study develops 504 case studies of altering sulfate aerosol chemistry, size distributions, refractive indices and densities at various ambient relative humidity conditions. Ammonium sulfate and sulfuric acid aerosols are studied with seven distinct size distributions at a given mode radius with three corresponding standard deviations implemented from field measurements. These test cases are evaluated for increasing relative humidity. As the relative humidity increases, the complex index of refraction and the mode radius for each distribution correspondingly change. Mie theory is employed to obtain the radiative properties for each case study. The case studies are then incorporated into a box model, the National Center of Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) column radiation model (CRM), and NCAR's community climate model version 3 (CCM3) to determine how sensitive the radiative properties and potential climatic effects are to altering sulfate properties. This study found the spatial variability of the sulfate aerosol leads to regional areas of intense aerosol forcing (W/m2). These areas are particularly sensitive to altering sulfate properties. Changes in the sulfate lognormal distribution standard deviation can lead to substantial regional differences in the annual aerosol forcing greater than 2 W/m 2. Changes in the

  11. NexGen PVAs: Incorporating Eco-Evolutionary Processes into Population Viability Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    We examine how the integration of evolutionary and ecological processes in population dynamics – an emerging framework in ecology – could be incorporated into population viability analysis (PVA). Driven by parallel, complementary advances in population genomics and computational ...

  12. Money, banks and endogenous volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Pere Gomis-Porqueras

    2000-01-01

    In this paper I consider a monetary growth model in which banks provide liquidity, and the government fixes a constant rate of money creation. There are two underlying assets in the economy, money and capital. Money is dominated in rate of return. In contrast to other papers with a larger set of government liabilities, I find a unique equilibrium when agents' risk aversion is moderate. However, indeterminacies and endogenous volatility can be observed when agents are relatively risk averse.

  13. Chemical Atherogenesis: Role of Endogenous and Exogenous Poisons in Disease Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Matthew K; Matthews, Anberitha T; Mangum, Lee C

    Chemical atherogenesis is an emerging field that describes how environmental pollutants and endogenous toxins perturb critical pathways that regulate lipid metabolism and inflammation, thus injuring cells found within the vessel wall. Despite growing awareness of the role of environmental pollutants in the development of cardiovascular disease, the field of chemical atherogenesis can broadly include both exogenous and endogenous poisons and the study of molecular, biochemical, and cellular pathways that become dysregulated during atherosclerosis. This integrated approach is logical because exogenous and endogenous toxins often share the same mechanism of toxicity. Chemical atherogenesis is a truly integrative discipline because it incorporates concepts from several different fields, including biochemistry, chemical biology, pharmacology, and toxicology. This review will provide an overview of this emerging research area, focusing on cellular and animal models of disease.

  14. Chemical Atherogenesis: Role of Endogenous and Exogenous Poisons in Disease Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew K. Ross

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Chemical atherogenesis is an emerging field that describes how environmental pollutants and endogenous toxins perturb critical pathways that regulate lipid metabolism and inflammation, thus injuring cells found within the vessel wall. Despite growing awareness of the role of environmental pollutants in the development of cardiovascular disease, the field of chemical atherogenesis can broadly include both exogenous and endogenous poisons and the study of molecular, biochemical, and cellular pathways that become dysregulated during atherosclerosis. This integrated approach is logical because exogenous and endogenous toxins often share the same mechanism of toxicity. Chemical atherogenesis is a truly integrative discipline because it incorporates concepts from several different fields, including biochemistry, chemical biology, pharmacology, and toxicology. This review will provide an overview of this emerging research area, focusing on cellular and animal models of disease.

  15. A passive movement method for parameter estimation of a musculo-skeletal arm model incorporating a modified hill muscle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tung Fai; Wilson, Adrian J

    2014-05-01

    In this paper we present an experimental method of parameterising the passive mechanical characteristics of the bicep and tricep muscles in vivo, by fitting the dynamics of a two muscle arm model incorporating anatomically meaningful and structurally identifiable modified Hill muscle models to measured elbow movements. Measurements of the passive flexion and extension of the elbow joint were obtained using 3D motion capture, from which the elbow angle trajectories were determined and used to obtain the spring constants and damping coefficients in the model through parameter estimation. Four healthy subjects were used in the experiments. Anatomical lengths and moment of inertia values of the subjects were determined by direct measurement and calculation. There was good reproducibility in the measured arm movement between trials, and similar joint angle trajectory characteristics were seen between subjects. Each subject had their own set of fitted parameter values determined and the results showed good agreement between measured and simulated data. The average fitted muscle parallel spring constant across all subjects was 143 N/m and the average fitted muscle parallel damping constant was 1.73 Ns/m. The passive movement method was proven to be successful, and can be applied to other joints in the human body, where muscles with similar actions are grouped together. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Peripheral antinociceptive action of mangiferin in mouse models of experimental pain: role of endogenous opioids, K(ATP)-channels and adenosine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, Synara C; da Silva, Ana Virginia L; Arruda, Bruno Rodrigues; Morais, Talita C; Rios, Jeison Barros; Trevisan, Maria Teresa S; Rao, Vietla S; Santos, Flávia A

    2013-09-01

    This study aimed to assess the possible systemic antinociceptive activity of mangiferin and to clarify the underlying mechanism, using the acute models of chemical (acetic acid, formalin, and capsaicin) and thermal (hot-plate and tail-flick) nociception in mice. Mangiferin at oral doses of 10 to 100 mg/kg evidenced significant antinociception against chemogenic pain in the test models of acetic acid-induced visceral pain and in formalin- and capsaicin-induced neuro-inflammatory pain, in a naloxone-sensitive manner, suggesting the participation of endogenous opiates in its mechanism. In capsaicin test, the antinociceptive effect of mangiferin (30 mg/kg) was not modified by respective competitive and non-competitive transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) antagonists, capsazepine and ruthenium red, or by pretreatment with L-NAME, a non-selective nitric oxide synthase inhibitor, or by ODQ, an inhibitor of soluble guanylyl cyclase. However, mangiferin effect was significantly reversed by glibenclamide, a blocker of K(ATP) channels and in animals pretreated with 8-phenyltheophylline, an adenosine receptor antagonist. Mangiferin failed to modify the thermal nociception in hot-plate and tail-flick test models, suggesting that its analgesic effect is only peripheral but not central. The orally administered mangiferin (10-100 mg/kg) was well tolerated and did not impair the ambulation or the motor coordination of mice in respective open-field and rota-rod tests, indicating that the observed antinociception was unrelated to sedation or motor abnormality. The findings of this study suggest that mangiferin has a peripheral antinociceptive action through mechanisms that involve endogenous opioids, K(ATP)-channels and adenosine receptors.

  17. 76 FR 66617 - Airworthiness Directives; Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated Model S-64F Helicopters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-27

    ...-026-AD; Amendment 39-16835; AD 2011-21-12] RIN 2120-AA64 Airworthiness Directives; Erickson Air-Crane.... SUMMARY: We are adopting a new airworthiness directive (AD) for the Erickson Air-Crane (Erickson Air-Crane..., 2011. ADDRESSES: For service information identified in this AD, contact Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated...

  18. Incorporating food web dynamics into ecological restoration: a modeling approach for river ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Ryan Bellmore; Joseph R. Benjamin; Michael Newsom; Jennifer A. Bountry; Daniel Dombroski

    2017-01-01

    Restoration is frequently aimed at the recovery of target species, but also influences the larger food web in which these species participate. Effects of restoration on this broader network of organisms can influence target species both directly and indirectly via changes in energy flow through food webs. To help incorporate these complexities into river restoration...

  19. Strategies for Incorporating Women-Specific Sexuality Education into Addiction Treatment Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Raven

    2007-01-01

    This paper advocates for the incorporation of a women-specific sexuality curriculum in the addiction treatment process to aid in sexual healing and provide for aftercare issues. Sexuality in addiction treatment modalities is often approached from a sex-negative stance, or that of sexual victimization. Sexual issues are viewed as addictive in and…

  20. Generalized Spatial Two Stage Least Squares Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models with Autoregressive Disturbances in the Presence of Endogenous Regressors and Many Instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Jin

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the generalized spatial two stage least squares (GS2SLS estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive disturbances when there are endogenous regressors with many valid instruments. Using many instruments may improve the efficiency of estimators asymptotically, but the bias might be large in finite samples, making the inference inaccurate. We consider the case that the number of instruments K increases with, but at a rate slower than, the sample size, and derive the approximate mean square errors (MSE that account for the trade-offs between the bias and variance, for both the GS2SLS estimator and a bias-corrected GS2SLS estimator. A criterion function for the optimal K selection can be based on the approximate MSEs. Monte Carlo experiments are provided to show the performance of our procedure of choosing K.

  1. THE C-K MODEL WITH SOLVABLE ENDOGENOUS FERTILITY%可解内生生育率的C-K模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蔡东汉

    2000-01-01

    In this paper,a C-K model with solvable endogenous fertility under the strongly additive utility function is presented.The discrimination conditions of the existence of the nonzero steady states are given.Under a kind of utility function and production function,we prove that these conditions are satisfied and the economy at least has an optimal growth path.The positional relationship of the multiple steady states on the plane is discussed when multiple steady states and multiple growth paths exist.By numerical analysis,the fertility decreases with the per capita capital and per capita consumption increasing and increases with the per capita capital and per capita consumption decreasing on the economic growth path are obtained.

  2. Health and endogenous growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zon, A; Muysken, J

    2001-03-01

    The focus of endogenous growth theory on human capital formation and the physical embodiment of knowledge in people, suggests the integration of the growth supporting character of health production and the growth generating services of human capital accumulation in an endogenous growth framework. We show that a slow down in growth may be explained by a preference for health that is positively influenced by a growing income per head, or by an ageing population. Growth may virtually disappear for countries with high rates of decay of health, low productivity of the health-sector, or high rates of discount.

  3. Endogenous fertility, mortality and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackburn, K; Cipriani, G P

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a model that illustrates the joint determination of population and development. "Economic and demographic outcomes are determined jointly in a choice-theoretic model of fertility, mortality and capital accumulation.... In addition to choosing savings and births, parents may reduce (infant) deaths by incurring expenditures on health-care which is also provided by the government. A generalised production technology accounts for long-run endogenous growth with short-run transitional dynamics. The analysis yields testable time series and cross-section implications which accord with the empirical evidence on the relationship between demography and development."

  4. Endogenous scheduling preferences and congestion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Small, Kenneth

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic models of congestion so far rely on exogenous scheduling preferences of travelers, based for example on disutility of deviation from a preferred departure or arrival time for a trip. This paper provides a more fundamental view in which travelers derive utility just from consumption...... and leisure, but agglomeration economies at home and at work lead to scheduling preferences forming endogenously. Using bottleneck congestion technology, we obtain an equilibrium queuing pattern consistent with a general version of the Vickrey bottleneck model. However, the policy implications are different...

  5. Endogenous hydrogen sulfide is associated with angiotensin II type 1 receptor in a rat model of carbon tetrachloride-induced hepatic fibrosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    FAN, HUI-NING; CHEN, NI-WEI; SHEN, WEI-LIN; ZHAO, XIANG-YUN; ZHANG, JING

    2015-01-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the effects of endogenous hydrogen sulfide (H2S) on the expression levels of angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AGTR1) in a rat model of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)-induced hepatic fibrosis. A total of 56 Wistar rats were randomly divided into four groups: Normal control group, model group, sodium hydrosulfide (NaHS) group, and DL-propargylglycine (PAG) group. Hepatic fibrosis was induced by CCl4. The rats in the PAG group were intraperitoneally injected with PAG, an inhibitor of cystathionine-γ-lyase (CSE). The rats in the NaHS group were intraperitoneally injected with NaHS. An equal volume of saline solution was intraperitoneally injected into both the control and model groups. All rats were sacrificed at week three or four following treatment. The serum levels of hyaluronidase (HA), laminin protein (LN), procollagen III (PcIII), and collagen IV (cIV) were detected using ELISA. The serum levels of alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), and albumin (ALB) were detected using an automatic biochemical analyzer. The liver mRNA expression levels of CSE were detected by reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The liver expression levels of AGTR1 and the plasma expression levels of H2S were detected using western blot analyses. The results indicated that the severity of hepatic fibrosis, the serum expression levels of HA, LN, PcIII, cIV, ALT, and AST, the liver expression levels of CSE and AGTR1, and the plasma expression levels of H2S were significantly higher in the PAG group, as compared with the model group (P<0.05). Conversely, the expression levels of ALB were significantly lower in the PAG group, as compared with the model group. In addition, the severity of hepatic fibrosis, the serum expression levels of HA, LN, PcIII, cIV, ALT, and AST, the liver expression levels of CSE and AGTR1, and the plasma expression levels of H2S were significantly lower in the NaHS group, as compared with

  6. Repeated oral dosing of TAS-102 confers high trifluridine incorporation into DNA and sustained antitumor activity in mouse models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Nozomu; Sakamoto, Kazuki; Okabe, Hiroyuki; Fujioka, Akio; Yamamura, Keisuke; Nakagawa, Fumio; Nagase, Hideki; Yokogawa, Tatsushi; Oguchi, Kei; Ishida, Keiji; Osada, Akiko; Kazuno, Hiromi; Yamada, Yukari; Matsuo, Kenichi

    2014-12-01

    TAS-102 is a novel oral nucleoside antitumor agent containing trifluridine (FTD) and tipiracil hydrochloride (TPI). The compound improves overall survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients who are insensitive to standard chemotherapies. FTD possesses direct antitumor activity since it inhibits thymidylate synthase (TS) and is itself incorporated into DNA. However, the precise mechanisms underlying the incorporation into DNA and the inhibition of TS remain unclear. We found that FTD-dependent inhibition of TS was similar to that elicited by fluorodeoxyuridine (FdUrd), another clinically used nucleoside analog. However, washout experiments revealed that FTD-dependent inhibition of TS declined rapidly, whereas FdUrd activity persisted. The incorporation of FTD into DNA was significantly higher than that of other antitumor nucleosides. Additionally, orally administered FTD had increased antitumor activity and was incorporated into DNA more effectively than continuously infused FTD. When TAS-102 was administered, FTD gradually accumulated in tumor cell DNA, in a TPI-independent manner, and significantly delayed tumor growth and prolonged survival, compared to treatment with 5-FU derivatives. TAS-102 reduced the Ki-67-positive cell fraction, and swollen nuclei were observed in treated tumor tissue. The amount of FTD incorporation in DNA and the antitumor activity of TAS-102 in xenograft models were positively and significantly correlated. These results suggest that TAS-102 exerts its antitumor activity predominantly due to its DNA incorporation, rather than as a result of TS inhibition. The persistence of FTD in the DNA of tumor cells treated with TAS-102 may underlie its ability to prolong survival in cancer patients.

  7. Evolution of endogenous analgesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niesters, Marieke

    2014-01-01

    Endogenous pain modulation is a complex phenomenon involved in the perception of pain. It consists of top-down inhibitory and facilitatory pathways that originate at higher sites within the central nervous system and converge at dorsal horn neurons in the spinal cord, to modulate incoming afferent n

  8. Streptococcus agalactiae endogenous endophthalmitis

    OpenAIRE

    Saffra, Norman; Rakhamimov, Aleksandr; Husney, Robert; Ghitan, Monica

    2013-01-01

    Streptococcus agalactiae (SA) is a Group B Streptococcus, which is a common pathogen implicated in neonatal and geriatric sepsis. Endogenous bacterial endophthalmitis (EBE) is a condition that results from haematogenous seeding of the globe, during transient or persistent bacteremia. We document a case of a non-septic geriatric patient, who developed EBE after a transient bacteraemia with SA.

  9. Adoptive Transfer of Treg Cells Combined with Mesenchymal Stem Cells Facilitates Repopulation of Endogenous Treg Cells in a Murine Acute GVHD Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eun-Sol; Lim, Jung-Yeon; Im, Keon-Il; Kim, Nayoun; Nam, Young-Sun; Jeon, Young-Woo; Cho, Seok-Goo

    2015-01-01

    Therapeutic effects of combined cell therapy with mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) and regulatory T cells (Treg cells) have recently been studied in acute graft-versus-host-disease (aGVHD) models. However, the underlying, seemingly synergistic mechanism behind combined cell therapy has not been determined. We investigated the origin of Foxp3+ Treg cells and interleukin 17 (IL-17+) cells in recipients following allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (allo-BMT) to identify the immunological effects of combined cell therapy. Treg cells were generated from eGFP-expressing C57BL/6 mice (Tregegfp cells) to distinguish the transferred Treg cells; recipients were then examined at different time points after BMT. Systemic infusion of MSCs and Treg cells improved survival and GVHD scores, effectively downregulating pro-inflammatory Th×and Th17 cells. These therapeutic effects of combined cell therapy resulted in an increased Foxp3+ Treg cell population. Compared to single cell therapy, adoptively transferred Tregegfp cells only showed prolonged survival in the combined cell therapy group on day 21 after allogeneic BMT. In addition, Foxp3+ Treg cells, generated endogenously from recipients, significantly increased. Significantly higher levels of Tregegfp cells were also detected in aGVHD target organs in the combined cell therapy group compared to the Treg cells group. Thus, our data indicate that MSCs may induce the long-term survival of transferred Treg cells, particularly in aGVHD target organs, and may increase the repopulation of endogenous Treg cells in recipients after BMT. Together, these results support the potential of combined cell therapy using MSCs and Treg cells for preventing aGVHD.

  10. How Do the Richest 1% Owns 50% of Wealth in a Small-Open Growth Model with Endogenous Wealth and Human Capital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper extends the growth model for a closed national economy by Zhang (2015 to a small-open economy. We attempt to explain some economic mechanisms of how the richest one per cent of the population own 50% of national wealth. We consider endogenous wealth and human capital accumulation by heterogeneous households with different preferences and learning abilities as the main determinants of growth and inequality. We describe the production technologies and economic structure on the basis of the Uzawa two-sector model. By applying Zhang’s concept of disposable income and approach to household behavior, we describe consumers’ wealth accumulation and consumption behavior. We model human capital accumulation on the basis of Arrow’s learning by doing and Zhang’s creativity with leisure. We simulate the model with three groups of the population, the rich 1 %, the middle 69%, and the poor 20%. We demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point at which the rich 1% own more than half of the national wealth and the poor 20% less than 10% of the national wealth. We show how the system moves to the equilibrium from an initial state and confirm that the equilibrium point is stable. We also conduct comparative dynamic analysis.

  11. A computational model incorporating neural stem cell dynamics reproduces glioma incidence across the lifespan in the human population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Bauer

    Full Text Available Glioma is the most common form of primary brain tumor. Demographically, the risk of occurrence increases until old age. Here we present a novel computational model to reproduce the probability of glioma incidence across the lifespan. Previous mathematical models explaining glioma incidence are framed in a rather abstract way, and do not directly relate to empirical findings. To decrease this gap between theory and experimental observations, we incorporate recent data on cellular and molecular factors underlying gliomagenesis. Since evidence implicates the adult neural stem cell as the likely cell-of-origin of glioma, we have incorporated empirically-determined estimates of neural stem cell number, cell division rate, mutation rate and oncogenic potential into our model. We demonstrate that our model yields results which match actual demographic data in the human population. In particular, this model accounts for the observed peak incidence of glioma at approximately 80 years of age, without the need to assert differential susceptibility throughout the population. Overall, our model supports the hypothesis that glioma is caused by randomly-occurring oncogenic mutations within the neural stem cell population. Based on this model, we assess the influence of the (experimentally indicated decrease in the number of neural stem cells and increase of cell division rate during aging. Our model provides multiple testable predictions, and suggests that different temporal sequences of oncogenic mutations can lead to tumorigenesis. Finally, we conclude that four or five oncogenic mutations are sufficient for the formation of glioma.

  12. Incorporating wind availability into land use regression modelling of air quality in mountainous high-density urban environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yuan; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ng, Edward

    2017-08-01

    Urban air quality serves as an important function of the quality of urban life. Land use regression (LUR) modelling of air quality is essential for conducting health impacts assessment but more challenging in mountainous high-density urban scenario due to the complexities of the urban environment. In this study, a total of 21 LUR models are developed for seven kinds of air pollutants (gaseous air pollutants CO, NO2, NOx, O3, SO2 and particulate air pollutants PM2.5, PM10) with reference to three different time periods (summertime, wintertime and annual average of 5-year long-term hourly monitoring data from local air quality monitoring network) in Hong Kong. Under the mountainous high-density urban scenario, we improved the traditional LUR modelling method by incorporating wind availability information into LUR modelling based on surface geomorphometrical analysis. As a result, 269 independent variables were examined to develop the LUR models by using the "ADDRESS" independent variable selection method and stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR). Cross validation has been performed for each resultant model. The results show that wind-related variables are included in most of the resultant models as statistically significant independent variables. Compared with the traditional method, a maximum increase of 20% was achieved in the prediction performance of annual averaged NO2 concentration level by incorporating wind-related variables into LUR model development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A Mass Balance Model for Designing Green Roof Systems that Incorporate a Cistern for Re-Use

    OpenAIRE

    Manoj Chopra; Martin Wanielista; Mike Hardin

    2012-01-01

    Green roofs, which have been used for several decades in many parts of the world, offer a unique and sustainable approach to stormwater management. Within this paper, evidence is presented on water retention for an irrigated green roof system. The presented green roof design results in a water retention volume on site. A first principle mass balance computer model is introduced to assist with the design of these green roof systems which incorporate a cistern to capture and reuse runoff waters...

  14. Development of transgenic rats producing human β-amyloid precursor protein as a model for Alzheimer's disease: Transgene and endogenous APP genes are regulated tissue-specifically

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan Anthony WS

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Alzheimer's disease (AD is a devastating neurodegenerative disorder that affects a large and growing number of elderly individuals. In addition to idiopathic disease, AD is also associated with autosomal dominant inheritance, which causes a familial form of AD (FAD. Some instances of FAD have been linked to mutations in the β-amyloid protein precursor (APP. Although there are numerous mouse AD models available, few rat AD models, which have several advantages over mice, have been generated. Results Fischer 344 rats expressing human APP driven by the ubiquitin-C promoter were generated via lentiviral vector infection of Fischer 344 zygotes. We generated two separate APP-transgenic rat lines, APP21 and APP31. Serum levels of human amyloid-beta (Aβ40 were 298 pg/ml for hemizygous and 486 pg/ml for homozygous APP21 animals. Serum Aβ42 levels in APP21 homozygous rats were 135 pg/ml. Immunohistochemistry in brain showed that the human APP transgene was expressed in neurons, but not in glial cells. These findings were consistent with independent examination of enhanced green fluorescent protein (eGFP in the brains of eGFP-transgenic rats. APP21 and APP31 rats expressed 7.5- and 3-times more APP mRNA, respectively, than did wild-type rats. Northern blots showed that the human APP transgene, driven by the ubiquitin-C promoter, is expressed significantly more in brain, kidney and lung compared to heart and liver. A similar expression pattern was also seen for the endogenous rat APP. The unexpected similarity in the tissue-specific expression patterns of endogenous rat APP and transgenic human APP mRNAs suggests regulatory elements within the cDNA sequence of APP. Conclusion This manuscript describes the generation of APP-transgenic inbred Fischer 344 rats. These are the first human AD model rat lines generated by lentiviral infection. The APP21 rat line expresses high levels of human APP and could be a useful model for AD. Tissue

  15. Ab initio modeling of point defects, self-diffusion, and incorporation of impurities in thorium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daroca, D. Pérez

    2017-02-01

    Research on Generation-IV nuclear reactors has boosted the investigation of thorium as nuclear fuel. By means of first-principles calculations within the framework of density functional theory, structural properties and phonon dispersion curves of Th are obtained. These results agreed very well with previous ones. The stability and formation energies of vacancies, interstitial and divacancies are studied. It is found that vacancies are the energetically preferred defects. The incorporation energies of He, Xe, and Kr atoms in Th defects are analyzed. Self-diffusion, migration paths and activation energies are also calculated.

  16. Incorporating environmental attitudes in discrete choice models: an exploration of the utility of the awareness of consequences scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, David; Mariel, Petr; Hess, Stephane

    2015-02-01

    Environmental economists are increasingly interested in better understanding how people cognitively organise their beliefs and attitudes towards environmental change in order to identify key motives and barriers that stimulate or prevent action. In this paper, we explore the utility of a commonly used psychometric scale, the awareness of consequences (AC) scale, in order to better understand stated choices. The main contribution of the paper is that it provides a novel approach to incorporate attitudinal information into discrete choice models for environmental valuation: firstly, environmental attitudes are incorporated using a reinterpretation of the classical AC scale recently proposed by Ryan and Spash (2012); and, secondly, attitudinal data is incorporated as latent variables under a hybrid choice modelling framework. This novel approach is applied to data from a survey conducted in the Basque Country (Spain) in 2008 aimed at valuing land-use policies in a Natura 2000 Network site. The results are relevant to policy-making because choice models that are able to accommodate underlying environmental attitudes may help in designing more effective environmental policies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Brief Social Isolation in the Adolescent Wistar-Kyoto Rat Model of Endogenous Depression Alters Corticosterone and Regional Monoamine Concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shetty, Reshma A; Sadananda, Monika

    2017-02-24

    The Wistar-Kyoto rat (WKY) model has been suggested as a model of adult and adolescent depression though face, predictive and construct validities of the model to depression remain equivocal. The suitability of the WKY as a diathesis model that tests the double-hit hypothesis, particularly during critical periods of brain and behavioural development remains to be established. Here, effects of post-weaning social isolation were assessed during early adolescence (~30pnd) on behavioural despair and learned helplessness in the forced swim test (FST), plasma corticosterone levels and tissue monoamine concentrations in brain areas critically involved in depression, such as prefrontal cortex, nucleus accumbens, striatum and hippocampus. Significantly increased immobility in the FST was observed in socially-isolated, adolescent WKY with a concomitant increase in corticosterone levels over and above the FST-induced stress. WKY also demonstrated a significantly increased release and utilization of dopamine, as manifested by levels of metabolites 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetic acid and homovanillic acid in nucleus accumbens, indicating that the large dopamine storage pool evident during adolescence induces greater dopamine release when stimulated. The serotonin metabolite 5-hydroxy-indoleacetic acid was also significantly increased in nucleus accumbens, indicating increased utilization of serotonin, along with norepinephrine levels which were also signficantly elevated in socially-isolated adolescent WKY. Differences in neurochemistry suggest that social or environmental stimuli during critical periods of brain and behavioural development can determine the developmental trajectories of implicated pathways.

  18. Monopoly Insurance and Endogenous Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lagerlöf, Johan N. M.; Schottmüller, Christoph

    2017-01-01

    We study a monopoly insurance model with endogenous information acquisi- tion. Through a continuous effort choice, consumers can determine the precision of a privately observed signal that is informative about their accident risk. The equilibrium effort is, depending on parameter values, either...... zero (implying symmetric information) or positive (implying privately informed consumers). Regardless of the nature of the equilibrium, all offered contracts, also at the top, involve underinsurance, which discourages information gathering. We identify a missorting effect that explains why the insurer...... wants to discourage information acquisition. Moreover, lower information gathering costs can hurt both consumer and insurer....

  19. [Incorporation of an organic MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) and testing of the revised model using independent data sources]. [MAGIC Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T.J.

    1992-09-01

    A project was initiated in March, 1992 to (1) incorporate a rigorous organic acid representation, based on empirical data and geochemical considerations, into the MAGIC model of acidification response, and (2) test the revised model using three sets of independent data. After six months of performance, the project is on schedule and the majority of the tasks outlined for Year 1 have been successfully completed. Major accomplishments to data include development of the organic acid modeling approach, using data from the Adirondack Lakes Survey Corporation (ALSC), and coupling the organic acid model with MAGIC for chemical hindcast comparisons. The incorporation of an organic acid representation into MAGIC can account for much of the discrepancy earlier observed between MAGIC hindcasts and paleolimnological reconstructions of preindustrial pH and alkalinity for 33 statistically-selected Adirondack lakes. Additional work is on-going for model calibration and testing with data from two whole-catchment artificial acidification projects. Results obtained thus far are being prepared as manuscripts for submission to the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

  20. Incorporating Transmission Into Causal Models of Infectious Diseases for Improved Understanding of the Effect and Impact of Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paynter, Stuart

    2016-03-15

    Conventional measures of causality (which compare risks between exposed and unexposed individuals) do not factor in the population-scale dynamics of infectious disease transmission. We used mathematical models of 2 childhood infections (respiratory syncytial virus and rotavirus) to illustrate this problem. These models incorporated 3 causal pathways whereby malnutrition could act to increase the incidence of severe infection: increasing the proportion of infected children who develop severe infection, increasing the children's susceptibility to infection, and increasing infectiousness. For risk factors that increased the proportion of infected children who developed severe infection, the population attributable fraction (PAF) calculated conventionally was the same as the PAF calculated directly from the models. However, for risk factors that increased transmission (by either increasing susceptibility to infection or increasing infectiousness), the PAF calculated directly from the models was much larger than that predicted by the conventional PAF calculation. The models also showed that even when conventional studies find no association between a risk factor and an outcome, risk factors that increase transmission can still have a large impact on disease burden. For a complete picture of infectious disease causality, transmission effects must be incorporated into causal models.

  1. Homology modelling of the core domain of the endogenous lectin comitin: structural basis for its mannose-binding specificity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barre, A; Van Damme, E J; Peumans, W J; Rougé, P

    1999-03-01

    The N-terminal core domain of comitin from the slime mold Dictyostelium discoideum has been modelled from the X-ray coordinates of the monocot mannose-binding lectin from snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis). Docking experiments performed on the three-dimensional model showed that two of the three mannose-binding sites of the comitin monomer are functional. They are located at both ends of the comitin dimer whereas the actin-interacting region occurs in the central hinge region where both monomers are non covalently associated. This distribution is fully consistent with the bifunctional character of comitin which is believed to link the Golgi vesicles exhibiting mannosylated membrane glycans to the actin cytoskeleton in the cell.

  2. Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitze, Timo

    We analyse the problem of parameter inconsistency in panel data econometrics due to the correlation of exogenous variables with the error term.A common solution in this setting is to use Instrumental-Variable (IV) estimation in the spirit of Hausman-Taylor (1981). However, some potential...... Carlo simulations, where we explicitly control for the problem of IV selection in the Hausman-Taylor case. The simulation results show that the Hausman- Taylor model with perfect-knowledge about the underlying data structure (instrument orthogonality) has on average the smallest bias. However, compared...... square error (rmse) than both Hausman-Taylor models with perfect and imperfect knowledge about the underlying correlation between r.h.s variables and residual term.This indicates that it is generally more efficient.The results are roughly robust for various combinations in the time and cross...

  3. Endogenous Capital Market Imperfection, Informal Interest Rate Determination and International Factor mobility in a General Equilibrium Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chaudhuri, Sarbajit; GUPTA, Manash Ranjan

    2013-01-01

    This paper makes a pioneering attempt to provide a theory of determination of interest rate in the informal credit market in a less developed economy in terms of a three-sector static deterministic general equilibrium model. There are two informal sectors which obtain production loans from a monopolistic moneylender and employ labour from the informal labour market. On the other hand, the formal sector employs labour at an institutionally fixed wage rate and takes loans from the competitive f...

  4. Incorporation of Failure Into an Orthotropic Three-Dimensional Model with Tabulated Input Suitable for Use in Composite Impact Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Robert K.; Carney, Kelly S.; Dubois, Paul; Hoffarth, Canio; Khaled, Bilal; Shyamsunder, Loukham; Rajan, Subramaniam; Blankenhorn, Gunther

    2017-01-01

    The need for accurate material models to simulate the deformation, damage and failure of polymer matrix composites under impact conditions is becoming critical as these materials are gaining increased use in the aerospace and automotive communities. The aerospace community has identified several key capabilities which are currently lacking in the available material models in commercial transient dynamic finite element codes. To attempt to improve the predictive capability of composite impact simulations, a next generation material model is being developed for incorporation within the commercial transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA. The material model, which incorporates plasticity, damage and failure, utilizes experimentally based tabulated input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage and the initiation of failure as opposed to specifying discrete input parameters such as modulus and strength. The plasticity portion of the orthotropic, three-dimensional, macroscopic composite constitutive model is based on an extension of the Tsai-Wu composite failure model into a generalized yield function with a non-associative flow rule. For the damage model, a strain equivalent formulation is used to allow for the uncoupling of the deformation and damage analyses. In the damage model, a semi-coupled approach is employed where the overall damage in a particular coordinate direction is assumed to be a multiplicative combination of the damage in that direction resulting from the applied loads in various coordinate directions. For the failure model, a tabulated approach is utilized in which a stress or strain based invariant is defined as a function of the location of the current stress state in stress space to define the initiation of failure. Failure surfaces can be defined with any arbitrary shape, unlike traditional failure models where the mathematical functions used to define the failure surface impose a specific shape on the failure surface. In the current

  5. Mechanisms in endogenous leukemia virus induction by radiation and chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tennant, R.W.; Rascati, R.J.; Lavelle, G.C.

    1976-01-01

    A model of endogenous leukemia virus induction in AKR strain mouse cells based on two distinct types of alterations in cellular or proviral DNA is presented. The first type are non-repairable alterations, such as those caused by the incorporation of halogenated pyrimidines; the second type are repairable lesions, such as those caused by irradiation or certain other chemicals. The production of non-repairable lesions leads to the formation of a stable, proviral state which is dependent upon cell division for complete virus expression. A stable provirus intermediate state is not demonstrable in cells induced by treatments which cause repairable lesions, since replication of damaged or altered DNA must occur before the lesions are removed by repair synthesis. Experimental support for this model is presented.

  6. Nanofibers for drug delivery - incorporation and release of model molecules, influence of molecular weight and polymer structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrib, Jakub; Sirc, Jakub; Hobzova, Radka; Hampejsova, Zuzana; Bosakova, Zuzana; Munzarova, Marcela; Michalek, Jiri

    2015-01-01

    Nanofibers were prepared from polycaprolactone, polylactide and polyvinyl alcohol using Nanospider(TM) technology. Polyethylene glycols with molecular weights of 2 000, 6 000, 10 000 and 20 000 g/mol, which can be used to moderate the release profile of incorporated pharmacologically active compounds, served as model molecules. They were terminated by aromatic isocyanate and incorporated into the nanofibers. The release of these molecules into an aqueous environment was investigated. The influences of the molecular length and chemical composition of the nanofibers on the release rate and the amount of released polyethylene glycols were evaluated. Longer molecules released faster, as evidenced by a significantly higher amount of released molecules after 72 hours. However, the influence of the chemical composition of nanofibers was even more distinct - the highest amount of polyethylene glycol molecules released from polyvinyl alcohol nanofibers, the lowest amount from polylactide nanofibers.

  7. Nanofibers for drug delivery – incorporation and release of model molecules, influence of molecular weight and polymer structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Hrib

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Nanofibers were prepared from polycaprolactone, polylactide and polyvinyl alcohol using NanospiderTM technology. Polyethylene glycols with molecular weights of 2 000, 6 000, 10 000 and 20 000 g/mol, which can be used to moderate the release profile of incorporated pharmacologically active compounds, served as model molecules. They were terminated by aromatic isocyanate and incorporated into the nanofibers. The release of these molecules into an aqueous environment was investigated. The influences of the molecular length and chemical composition of the nanofibers on the release rate and the amount of released polyethylene glycols were evaluated. Longer molecules released faster, as evidenced by a significantly higher amount of released molecules after 72 hours. However, the influence of the chemical composition of nanofibers was even more distinct – the highest amount of polyethylene glycol molecules released from polyvinyl alcohol nanofibers, the lowest amount from polylactide nanofibers.

  8. Endogenous hydrogen sulfide is associated with angiotensin II type 1 receptor in a rat model of carbon tetrachloride-induced hepatic fibrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Hui-Ning; Chen, Ni-Wei; Shen, Wei-Lin; Zhao, Xiang-Yun; Zhang, Jing

    2015-09-01

    The present study aimed to investigate the effects of endogenous hydrogen sulfide (H2S) on the expression levels of angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AGTR1) in a rat model of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)‑induced hepatic fibrosis. A total of 56 Wistar rats were randomly divided into four groups: Normal control group, model group, sodium hydrosulfide (NaHS) group, and DL‑propargylglycine (PAG) group. Hepatic fibrosis was induced by CCl4. The rats in the PAG group were intraperitoneally injected with PAG, an inhibitor of cystathionine‑γ‑lyase (CSE). The rats in the NaHS group were intraperitoneally injected with NaHS. An equal volume of saline solution was intraperitoneally injected into both the control and model groups. All rats were sacrificed at week three or four following treatment. The serum levels of hyaluronidase (HA), laminin protein (LN), procollagen III (PcIII), and collagen IV (cIV) were detected using ELISA. The serum levels of alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), and albumin (ALB) were detected using an automatic biochemical analyzer. The liver mRNA expression levels of CSE were detected by reverse transcription‑quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The liver expression levels of AGTR1 and the plasma expression levels of H2S were detected using western blot analyses. The results indicated that the severity of hepatic fibrosis, the serum expression levels of HA, LN, PcIII, cIV, ALT, and AST, the liver expression levels of CSE and AGTR1, and the plasma expression levels of H2S were significantly higher in the PAG group, as compared with the model group (PAGTR1, and the plasma expression levels of H2S were significantly lower in the NaHS group, as compared with the model group (PAGTR1, which may be associated with the delayed progression of hepatic fibrosis.

  9. A Mass Balance Model for Designing Green Roof Systems that Incorporate a Cistern for Re-Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoj Chopra

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Green roofs, which have been used for several decades in many parts of the world, offer a unique and sustainable approach to stormwater management. Within this paper, evidence is presented on water retention for an irrigated green roof system. The presented green roof design results in a water retention volume on site. A first principle mass balance computer model is introduced to assist with the design of these green roof systems which incorporate a cistern to capture and reuse runoff waters for irrigation of the green roof. The model is used to estimate yearly stormwater retention volume for different cistern storage volumes. Additionally, the Blaney and Criddle equation is evaluated for estimation of monthly evapotranspiration rates for irrigated systems and incorporated into the model. This is done so evapotranspiration rates can be calculated for regions where historical data does not exist, allowing the model to be used anywhere historical weather data are available. This model is developed and discussed within this paper as well as compared to experimental results.

  10. Investigation of a growth model incorporating density dependence for the mackerel management plan simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunel, T.P.A.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a framework to model density dependent growth for the North East Atlantic mackerel. The model used is the classical von Bertalanffy equation, but modified so that growth is reduced when stock size increases. The model developed was able to reproduce quite closely the trends in t

  11. Investigation of a growth model incorporating density dependence for the mackerel management plan simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunel, T.P.A.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a framework to model density dependent growth for the North East Atlantic mackerel. The model used is the classical von Bertalanffy equation, but modified so that growth is reduced when stock size increases. The model developed was able to reproduce quite closely the trends in

  12. Faithful SGCE imprinting in iPSC-derived cortical neurons: an endogenous cellular model of myoclonus-dystonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grütz, Karen; Seibler, Philip; Weissbach, Anne; Lohmann, Katja; Carlisle, Francesca A.; Blake, Derek J.; Westenberger, Ana; Klein, Christine; Grünewald, Anne

    2017-01-01

    In neuropathology research, induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived neurons are considered a tool closely resembling the patient brain. Albeit in respect to epigenetics, this concept has been challenged. We generated iPSC-derived cortical neurons from myoclonus-dystonia patients with mutations (W100G and R102X) in the maternally imprinted ε-sarcoglycan (SGCE) gene and analysed properties such as imprinting, mRNA and protein expression. Comparison of the promoter during reprogramming and differentiation showed tissue-independent differential methylation. DNA sequencing with methylation-specific primers and cDNA analysis in patient neurons indicated selective expression of the mutated paternal SGCE allele. While fibroblasts only expressed the ubiquitous mRNA isoform, brain-specific SGCE mRNA and ε-sarcoglycan protein were detected in iPSC-derived control neurons. However, neuronal protein levels were reduced in both mutants. Our phenotypic characterization highlights the suitability of iPSC-derived cortical neurons with SGCE mutations for myoclonus-dystonia research and, in more general terms, prompts the use of iPSC-derived cellular models to study epigenetic mechanisms impacting on health and disease. PMID:28155872

  13. A selenium-deficient Caco-2 cell model for assessing differential incorporation of chemical or food selenium into glutathione peroxidase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Huawei; Botnen, James H; Johnson, Luann K

    2008-01-01

    Assessing the ability of a selenium (Se) sample to induce cellular glutathione peroxidase (GPx) activity in Se-deficient animals is the most commonly used method to determine Se bioavailability. Our goal is to establish a Se-deficient cell culture model with differential incorporation of Se chemical forms into GPx, which may complement the in vivo studies. In the present study, we developed a Se-deficient Caco-2 cell model with a serum gradual reduction method. It is well recognized that selenomethionine (SeMet) is the major nutritional source of Se; therefore, SeMet, selenite, or methylselenocysteine (SeMSC) was added to cell culture media with different concentrations and treatment time points. We found that selenite and SeMSC induced GPx more rapidly than SeMet. However, SeMet was better retained as it is incorporated into proteins in place of methionine; compared with 8-, 24-, or 48-h treatment, 72-h Se treatment was a more sensitive time point to measure the potential of GPx induction in all tested concentrations. Based on induction of GPx activity, the cellular bioavailability of Se from an extract of selenobroccoli after a simulated gastrointestinal digestion was comparable with that of SeMSC and SeMet. These in vitro data are, for the first time, consistent with previous published data regarding selenite and SeMet bioavailability in animal models and Se chemical speciation studies with broccoli. Thus, Se-deficient Caco-2 cell model with differential incorporation of chemical or food forms of Se into GPx provides a new tool to study the cellular mechanisms of Se bioavailability.

  14. Incorporating shape constraints in generalized additive modelling of the height-diameter relationship for Norway spruce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pya

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Measurements of tree heights and diameters are essential in forest assessment and modelling. Tree heights are used for estimating timber volume, site index and other important variables related to forest growth and yield, succession and carbon budget models. However, the diameter at breast height (dbh can be more accurately obtained and at lower cost, than total tree height. Hence, generalized height-diameter (h-d models that predict tree height from dbh, age and other covariates are needed. For a more flexible but biologically plausible estimation of covariate effects we use shape constrained generalized additive models as an extension of existing h-d model approaches. We use causal site parameters such as index of aridity to enhance the generality and causality of the models and to enable predictions under projected changeable climatic conditions. Methods: We develop unconstrained generalized additive models (GAM and shape constrained generalized additive models (SCAM for investigating the possible effects of tree-specific parameters such as tree age, relative diameter at breast height, and site-specific parameters such as index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature during vegetation period, on the h-d relationship of forests in Lower Saxony, Germany. Results: Some of the derived effects, e.g. effects of age, index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature have significantly non-linear pattern. The need for using SCAM results from the fact that some of the model effects show partially implausible patterns especially at the boundaries of data ranges. The derived model predicts monotonically increasing levels of tree height with increasing age and temperature sum and decreasing aridity and social rank of a tree within a stand. The definition of constraints leads only to marginal or minor decline in the model statistics like AIC. An observed structured spatial trend in tree height is modelled via 2-dimensional surface

  15. A mathematical model for maximizing the value of phase 3 drug development portfolios incorporating budget constraints and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Nitin R; Ankolekar, Suresh; Antonijevic, Zoran; Rajicic, Natasa

    2013-05-10

    We describe a value-driven approach to optimizing pharmaceutical portfolios. Our approach incorporates inputs from research and development and commercial functions by simultaneously addressing internal and external factors. This approach differentiates itself from current practices in that it recognizes the impact of study design parameters, sample size in particular, on the portfolio value. We develop an integer programming (IP) model as the basis for Bayesian decision analysis to optimize phase 3 development portfolios using expected net present value as the criterion. We show how this framework can be used to determine optimal sample sizes and trial schedules to maximize the value of a portfolio under budget constraints. We then illustrate the remarkable flexibility of the IP model to answer a variety of 'what-if' questions that reflect situations that arise in practice. We extend the IP model to a stochastic IP model to incorporate uncertainty in the availability of drugs from earlier development phases for phase 3 development in the future. We show how to use stochastic IP to re-optimize the portfolio development strategy over time as new information accumulates and budget changes occur.

  16. A codimension-2 bifurcation controlling endogenous bursting activity and pulse-triggered responses of a neuron model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William H Barnett

    modeled by a chain of oscillators.

  17. An Application of Combined Model for Tehran Metropolitan Area Incorporating Captive Travel Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahriar A. Zargari

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available To overcome deficiencies of the sequential transportation planning approach, this research applies a Combined Trip Distribution and Assignment Model (CTDAM for the simultaneous prediction. The proposed combined model can itself be reformulated as an Equivalent Minimization Problem (EMP. When applying the Evans algorithm to the EMP, the CTDAM is expected to be usable in a realistic application. The objective of this research is to compare the conventional sequential procedure and CTDAM by applying both models to a large urban transportation network for captive trip purposes. Several evaluation measures were utilized to compare the results and confirm that the proposed model can efficiently satisfy several convergence criterions. It became clear that the User Equilibrium (UE assignment in the proposed model can be obtained relatively swifter than the Sequential Model (SM and can be efficiently used in large transportation networks. Furthermore, the comparing results point out the performance of the CTDAM is significantly better than SM.

  18. Incorporating Floating Surface Objects into a Fully Dispersive Surface Wave Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-19

    solutions and a VOF model for a 2D floating box and with laboratory measurements of wave generation by a ver- tically oscillating sphere. A steep...breaking waves or sud - en surface impacts. These simplifications also considerably reduce he computational requirements of the model. The Pressure...recently, erakhti et al. (2015) carried out extensive model validations of HWAVE against laboratory data. The focus of their study was to xamine the

  19. Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Temme

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

  20. Combined harvesting of a stage structured prey-predator model incorporating cannibalism in competitive environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Kunal; Das, Kunal; Kar, Tapan Kumar

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a prey-predator system with stage structure for predator. The proposed system incorporates cannibalism for predator populations in a competitive environment. The combined fishing effort is considered as control used to harvest the populations. The steady states of the system are determined and the dynamical behavior of the system is discussed. Local stability of the system is analyzed and sufficient conditions are derived for the global stability of the system at the positive equilibrium point. The existence of the Hopf bifurcation phenomenon is examined at the positive equilibrium point of the proposed system. We consider harvesting effort as a control parameter and subsequently, characterize the optimal control parameter in order to formulate the optimal control problem under the dynamic framework towards optimal utilization of the resource. Moreover, the optimal system is solved numerically to investigate the sustainability of the ecosystem using an iterative method with a Runge-Kutta fourth-order scheme. Simulation results show that the optimal control scheme can achieve sustainable ecosystem. Results are analyzed with the help of graphical illustrations.

  1. Two-sector Endogenous Economic Growth Model with Government Services%含公共开支的两部门内生经济增长模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周少波; 胡适耕; 吴付科

    2005-01-01

    The paper develops a two-sector endogenous economic growth model with the most general function forms for physical and human capital accumulation involving government services. At steady state,three fractions of physical and human capital and effective labor used in each sector,are positively related,fraction of output used in public services is negatively related to fractions used in physical production. The relations between the growth rates and elasticities are discussed. The conditions the equilibrium values are positive and the conditions economy converges to the equilibrium point along two-dimension stable manifold,are given.%本文研究了一个含公共开支的两部门的内生经济增长模型,其生产函数具有最一般的形式.用于两部分的三要素-物质资本,人力资本,有效劳动的份额正相关,产出用于公共开支的份额与用于生产部门的三要素的份额负相关,经济增长极大地依赖于生产弹性.并给出均衡值为正的条件和经济系统沿二维稳定流形收敛于稳定点的条件.

  2. Incorporating Video Modeling into a School-Based Intervention for Students with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kaitlyn P.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Video modeling is an intervention strategy that has been shown to be effective in improving the social and communication skills of students with autism spectrum disorders, or ASDs. The purpose of this tutorial is to outline empirically supported, step-by-step instructions for the use of video modeling by school-based speech-language…

  3. Applications of explicitly-incorporated/post-processing measurement uncertainty in watershed modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The importance of measurement uncertainty in terms of calculation of model evaluation error statistics has been recently stated in the literature. The impact of measurement uncertainty on calibration results indicates the potential vague zone in the field of watershed modeling where the assumption ...

  4. A simple 2-D inundation model for incorporating flood damage in urban drainage planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pathirana

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new inundation model code is developed and coupled with Storm Water Management Model, SWMM, to relate spatial information associated with urban drainage systems as criteria for planning of storm water drainage networks. The prime objective is to achive a model code that is simple and fast enough to be consistently be used in planning stages of urban drainage projects.

    The formulation for the two-dimensional (2-D surface flow model algorithms is based on the Navier Stokes equation in two dimensions. An Alternating Direction Implicit (ADI finite difference numerical scheme is applied to solve the governing equations. This numerical scheme is used to express the partial differential equations with time steps split into two halves. The model algorithm is written using C++ computer programming language.

    This 2-D surface flow model is then coupled with SWMM for simulation of both pipe flow component and surcharge induced inundation in urban areas. In addition, a damage calculation block is integrated within the inundation model code.

    The coupled model is shown to be capable of dealing with various flow conditions, as well as being able to simulate wetting and drying processes that will occur as the flood flows over an urban area. It has been applied under idealized and semi-hypothetical cases to determine detailed inundation zones, depths and velocities due to surcharged water on overland surface.

  5. LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

    2011-01-01

    This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

  6. Incorporating Fuzzy Systems Modeling and Possibility Theory in Hydrogeological Uncertainty Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faybishenko, B.

    2008-12-01

    Hydrogeological predictions are subject to numerous uncertainties, including the development of conceptual, mathematical, and numerical models, as well as determination of their parameters. Stochastic simulations of hydrogeological systems and the associated uncertainty analysis are usually based on the assumption that the data characterizing spatial and temporal variations of hydrogeological processes are random, and the output uncertainty is quantified using a probability distribution. However, hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete or subjective information. One of the modern approaches to modeling and uncertainty quantification of such systems is based on using a combination of statistical and fuzzy-logic uncertainty analyses. The aims of this presentation are to: (1) present evidence of fuzziness in developing conceptual hydrogeological models, and (2) give examples of the integration of the statistical and fuzzy-logic analyses in modeling and assessing both aleatoric uncertainties (e.g., caused by vagueness in assessing the subsurface system heterogeneities of fractured-porous media) and epistemic uncertainties (e.g., caused by the selection of different simulation models) involved in hydrogeological modeling. The author will discuss several case studies illustrating the application of fuzzy modeling for assessing the water balance and water travel time in unsaturated-saturated media. These examples will include the evaluation of associated uncertainties using the main concepts of possibility theory, a comparison between the uncertainty evaluation using probabilistic and possibility theories, and a transformation of the probabilities into possibilities distributions (and vice versa) for modeling hydrogeological processes.

  7. Incorporating Video Modeling into a School-Based Intervention for Students with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kaitlyn P.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Video modeling is an intervention strategy that has been shown to be effective in improving the social and communication skills of students with autism spectrum disorders, or ASDs. The purpose of this tutorial is to outline empirically supported, step-by-step instructions for the use of video modeling by school-based speech-language…

  8. A Preventative Model of School Consultation: Incorporating Perspectives from Positive Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin-Little, K. Angeleque; Little, Steven G.; Delligatti, Nina

    2004-01-01

    Using the principles of mental health and behavioral consultation, combined with concepts from positive psychology, this paper generates a new preventative model of school consultation. This model has two steps: (1) the school psychologist aids the teacher in the development and use of his/her personal positive psychology (e.g., optimism,…

  9. Incorporating learning goals about modeling into an upper-division physics laboratory experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwickl, Benjamin M.; Finkelstein, Noah; Lewandowski, H. J.

    2014-09-01

    Implementing a laboratory activity involves a complex interplay among learning goals, available resources, feedback about the existing course, best practices for teaching, and an overall philosophy about teaching labs. Building on our previous work, which described a process of transforming an entire lab course, we now turn our attention to how an individual lab activity on the polarization of light was redesigned to include a renewed emphasis on one broad learning goal: modeling. By using this common optics lab as a concrete case study of a broadly applicable approach, we highlight many aspects of the activity development and show how modeling is used to integrate sophisticated conceptual and quantitative reasoning into the experimental process through the various aspects of modeling: constructing models, making predictions, interpreting data, comparing measurements with predictions, and refining models. One significant outcome is a natural way to integrate an analysis and discussion of systematic error into a lab activity.

  10. Incorporating sediment compaction into a gravitationally self-consistent model for ice age sea-level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrier, Ken L.; Austermann, Jacqueline; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Pico, Tamara

    2017-10-01

    Sea-level changes are of wide interest because they regulate coastal hazards, shape the sedimentary geologic record and are sensitive to climate change. In areas where rivers deliver sediment to marine deltas and fans, sea-level changes are strongly modulated by the deposition and compaction of marine sediment. Deposition affects sea level by increasing the elevation of the seafloor, by perturbing crustal elevation and gravity fields and by reducing the volume of seawater through the incorporation of water into sedimentary pore space. In a similar manner, compaction affects sea level by lowering the elevation of the seafloor and by purging water out of sediments and into the ocean. Here we incorporate the effects of sediment compaction into a gravitationally self-consistent global sea-level model by extending the approach of Dalca et al. (2013). We show that incorporating compaction requires accounting for two quantities that are not included in the Dalca et al. (2013) analysis: the mean porosity of the sediment and the degree of saturation in the sediment. We demonstrate the effects of compaction by modelling sea-level responses to two simplified 122-kyr sediment transfer scenarios for the Amazon River system, one including compaction and one neglecting compaction. These simulations show that the largest effect of compaction is on the thickness of the compacting sediment, an effect that is largest where deposition rates are fastest. Compaction can also produce minor sea-level changes in coastal regions by influencing shoreline migration and the location of seawater loading, which perturbs crustal elevations. By providing a tool for modelling gravitationally self-consistent sea-level responses to sediment compaction, this work offers an improved approach for interpreting the drivers of past sea-level changes.

  11. Incorporation of an Energy Equation into a Pulsed Inductive Thruster Performance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polzin, Kurt A.; Reneau, Jarred P.; Sankaran, Kameshwaran

    2011-01-01

    A model for pulsed inductive plasma acceleration containing an energy equation to account for the various sources and sinks in such devices is presented. The model consists of a set of circuit equations coupled to an equation of motion and energy equation for the plasma. The latter two equations are obtained for the plasma current sheet by treating it as a one-element finite volume, integrating the equations over that volume, and then matching known terms or quantities already calculated in the model to the resulting current sheet-averaged terms in the equations. Calculations showing the time-evolution of the various sources and sinks in the system are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the model, with two separate resistivity models employed to show an example of how the plasma transport properties can affect the calculation. While neither resistivity model is fully accurate, the demonstration shows that it is possible within this modeling framework to time-accurately update various plasma parameters.

  12. A spatial model for conflict incorporating within- and between-actor effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knipl, Diána; Davies, Toby; Baudains, Peter

    2017-10-01

    The application of ecological models to human conflict scenarios has given rise to a number of models which describe antagonistic relationships between adversaries. Recent work demonstrates that the spatial disaggregation of such models is not only well-motivated but also gives rise to interesting dynamic behaviour, particularly with respect to the spatial distribution of resources. One feature which is largely absent from previous models, however, is the ability of an adversary to coordinate activity across its various locations. Most immediately, this corresponds to the notion of 'support' - the reallocation of resources from one site to another according to need - which plays an important role in real-world conflict. In this paper, we generalise a spatially-disaggregated form of the classic Richardson model of conflict escalation by adding a cross-location interaction term for the within-adversary dynamics at each location. We explore the model analytically, giving conditions for the stability of the balanced equilibrium state. We then also carry out a number of numerical simulations which correspond to stylised real-world conflict scenarios. Potential further applications of the model, and its implications for policy, are then discussed.

  13. A LabVIEW model incorporating an open-loop arterial impedance and a closed-loop circulatory system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, R T; Lucas, C L; Cascio, W E; Johnson, T A

    2005-11-01

    While numerous computer models exist for the circulatory system, many are limited in scope, contain unwanted features or incorporate complex components specific to unique experimental situations. Our purpose was to develop a basic, yet multifaceted, computer model of the left heart and systemic circulation in LabVIEW having universal appeal without sacrificing crucial physiologic features. The program we developed employs Windkessel-type impedance models in several open-loop configurations and a closed-loop model coupling a lumped impedance and ventricular pressure source. The open-loop impedance models demonstrate afterload effects on arbitrary aortic pressure/flow inputs. The closed-loop model catalogs the major circulatory waveforms with changes in afterload, preload, and left heart properties. Our model provides an avenue for expanding the use of the ventricular equations through closed-loop coupling that includes a basic coronary circuit. Tested values used for the afterload components and the effects of afterload parameter changes on various waveforms are consistent with published data. We conclude that this model offers the ability to alter several circulatory factors and digitally catalog the most salient features of the pressure/flow waveforms employing a user-friendly platform. These features make the model a useful instructional tool for students as well as a simple experimental tool for cardiovascular research.

  14. The Endogenous Feedback Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Augustenborg, Claudia Carrara

    2010-01-01

    proposals, it will first be considered the extents of their reciprocal compatibility, tentatively shaping an integrated, theoretical profile of consciousness. A new theory, the Endogenous Feedback Network (EFN) will consequently be introduced which, beside being able to accommodate the main tenets...... of the reviewed theories, appears able to compensate for the explanatory gaps they leave behind. The EFN proposes consciousness as the phenomenon emerging from a distinct network of neural paths broadcasting the neural changes associated to any mental process. It additionally argues for the need to include a 5th...

  15. Endogenous price leadership

    OpenAIRE

    van Damme, E.E.C.; Hurkens, S.

    1998-01-01

    We consider a linear price setting duopoly game with di®erentiated products and determine endogenously which of the players will lead and which will follow. While the follower role is most attractive for each firm, we show that waiting is more risky for the low cost firm so that, consequently, risk dominance considerations, as in Harsanyi and Selten (1988), allow the conclusion that only the high cost firm will choose to wait. Hence, the low cost firm will emerge as the end...

  16. Forest type mapping using incorporation of spatial models and ETM+ data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joibary, Shaban Shataee; Darvishsefat, Ali A; Kellenberger, Tobias W

    2007-07-15

    Results of former researches have shown that spectrally based analysis alone could not satisfy forest type classification in mountainous mixed forests. Forest type based on composed different parameters such as topography elements like aspect, elevation and slop. These elements that are affected on occurrences of forest type can be stated as spatial distribution models. Using ancillary data integrated with spectral data could help to separate forest type. In order to find the abilities of using topographic spatial predictive models to improve forest type classification, an investigation was carried out to classify forest type using ETM+ data in a part of northern forests of Iran. The Tasseled Cap, Ratioing transformations and Principal Component Analysis were applied to the spectral bands. The best spectral and predictive data sets for classifying forest type using maximum likelihood classification were chosen using the Bhattacharya seperability index. Primary analysis between forest type and topographic parameters showed that elevation and aspect are most correlated with the occurrences of type. Probability occurrence rates of forest type were extracted in the aspect; elevation, integrated aspect and elevation as well as homogeneous units structured on elevation and aspect classes. Based on occurrence rates of forest type, spatial predictive distribution models were generated for each type individually. Classification of the best spectral data sets was accomplished by maximum likelihood classifier and using these spatial predictive models. Results were assessed using a sample ground truth of forest type. This study showed that spatial predictive models could considerably improve the results compared with spectral data alone from 49 to 60%. Among spatial models used, the spatial predictive models constructed based on the homogeneous units could improve results in comparison to other models. Applying other parameters related to forest type like soil maps would

  17. Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    relating frost-cracking intensity to the mean annual air temperature (MAAT). The model integrates temperature variations in the subsurface following an annually oscillating surface temperature. Hales and Roering (2007) assumed that frost-cracking intensity is a simple function of the temperature gradient...... allows us to couple the frost-cracking model to a long- term landscape evolution model where surface elevation, sediment thickness, and air temperature evolve through time. This enables us to explore the spatial distribution of frost cracking in realistic landscapes, and to study the slow feedbacks...

  18. Incorporation of Electrical Systems Models Into an Existing Thermodynamic Cycle Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeh, Josh

    2003-01-01

    Integration of entire system includes: Fuel cells, motors, propulsors, thermal/power management, compressors, etc. Use of existing, pre-developed NPSS capabilities includes: 1) Optimization tools; 2) Gas turbine models for hybrid systems; 3) Increased interplay between subsystems; 4) Off-design modeling capabilities; 5) Altitude effects; and 6) Existing transient modeling architecture. Other factors inclde: 1) Easier transfer between users and groups of users; 2) General aerospace industry acceptance and familiarity; and 3) Flexible analysis tool that can also be used for ground power applications.

  19. Incorporating Protein Biosynthesis into the Saccharomyces cerevisiae Genome-scale Metabolic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olivares Hernandez, Roberto

    Based on stoichiometric biochemical equations that occur into the cell, the genome-scale metabolic models can quantify the metabolic fluxes, which are regarded as the final representation of the physiological state of the cell. For Saccharomyces Cerevisiae the genome scale model has been......, translation initiation, translation elongation, translation termination, translation elongation, and mRNA decay. Considering these information from the mechanisms of transcription and translation, we will include this stoichiometric reactions into the genome scale model for S. Cerevisiae to obtain the first...

  20. Incorporation of NREL Solar Advisor Model Photovoltaic Capabilities with GridLAB-D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuffner, Francis K.; Hammerstrom, Janelle L.; Singh, Ruchi

    2012-10-19

    This report provides a summary of the work updating the photovoltaic model inside GridLAB-D. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory Solar Advisor Model (SAM) was utilized as a basis for algorithms and validation of the new implementation. Subsequent testing revealed that the two implementations are nearly identical in both solar impacts and power output levels. This synergized model aides the system-level impact studies of GridLAB-D, but also allows more specific details of a particular site to be explored via the SAM software.

  1. Quantifying the timescales over which exogenous and endogenous conditions affect soil respiration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron-Gafford, Greg A; Cable, Jessica M; Bentley, Lisa Patrick; Scott, Russell L; Huxman, Travis E; Jenerette, G Darrel; Ogle, Kiona

    2014-04-01

    Understanding how exogenous and endogenous factors and above-ground-below-ground linkages modulate carbon dynamics is difficult because of the influences of antecedent conditions. For example, there are variable lags between above-ground assimilation and below-ground efflux, and the duration of antecedent periods are often arbitrarily assigned. Nonetheless, developing models linking above- and below-ground processes is crucial for estimating current and future carbon dynamics. We collected data on leaf-level photosynthesis (Asat ) and soil respiration (Rsoil ) in different microhabitats (under shrubs vs under bunchgrasses) in the Sonoran Desert. We evaluated timescales over which endogenous and exogenous factors control Rsoil by analyzing data in the context of a semimechanistic temperature-response model of Rsoil that incorporated effects of antecedent exogenous (soil water) and endogenous (Asat ) conditions. For both microhabitats, antecedent soil water and Asat significantly affected Rsoil , but Rsoil under shrubs was more sensitive to Asat than that under bunchgrasses. Photosynthetic rates 1 and 3 d before the Rsoil measurement were most important in determining current-day Rsoil under bunchgrasses and shrubs, respectively, indicating a significant lag effect. Endogenous and exogenous controls are critical drivers of Rsoil , but the relative importance and the timescale over which each factor affects Rsoil depends on above-ground vegetation and ecosystem structure characteristics.

  2. Incorporating seepage losses into a 1D unsteady model of floods in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-07-04

    Joseph et al., 2004): (i) runoff volume and velocity; (ii) channel geometry; (iii) ... of seepage on different turbulent characteristics for an open channel flow. ..... Comparison of flow profiles calculated by present model with MIKE 11.

  3. Radmap: ''as-built'' cad models incorporating geometrical, radiological and material information

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piotrowski, L. [Electricite de France (EDF/DRD), 78 - Chatou (France); Lubawy, J.L. [Electricite de France (EDF/CNEPE), 37 - Tours (France)

    2001-07-01

    EDF intends to achieve successful and cost-effective dismantling of its obsolete nuclear plants. To reach this goal, EDF is currently extending its ''as-built'' 3-D modelling system to also include the location and characteristics of gamma sources in the geometrical models of its nuclear installations. The resulting system (called RADMAP) is a complete CAD chain covering 3-D and gamma data acquisitions, CAD modelling and exploitation of the final model. Its aim is to describe completely the geometrical and radiological state of a particular nuclear environment. This paper presents an overall view of RADMAP. The technical and functional characteristics of each element of the chain are indicated and illustrated using real (EDF) environments/applications. (author)

  4. Simulation of a severe convective storm using a numerical model with explicitly incorporated aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lompar, Miloš; Ćurić, Mladjen; Romanic, Djordje

    2017-09-01

    Despite an important role the aerosols play in all stages of cloud lifecycle, their representation in numerical weather prediction models is often rather crude. This paper investigates the effects the explicit versus implicit inclusion of aerosols in a microphysics parameterization scheme in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) - Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model has on cloud dynamics and microphysics. The testbed selected for this study is a severe mesoscale convective system with supercells that struck west and central parts of Serbia in the afternoon of July 21, 2014. Numerical products of two model runs, i.e. one with aerosols explicitly (WRF-AE) included and another with aerosols implicitly (WRF-AI) assumed, are compared against precipitation measurements from surface network of rain gauges, as well as against radar and satellite observations. The WRF-AE model accurately captured the transportation of dust from the north Africa over the Mediterranean and to the Balkan region. On smaller scales, both models displaced the locations of clouds situated above west and central Serbia towards southeast and under-predicted the maximum values of composite radar reflectivity. Similar to satellite images, WRF-AE shows the mesoscale convective system as a merged cluster of cumulonimbus clouds. Both models over-predicted the precipitation amounts; WRF-AE over-predictions are particularly pronounced in the zones of light rain, while WRF-AI gave larger outliers. Unlike WRF-AI, the WRF-AE approach enables the modelling of time evolution and influx of aerosols into the cloud which could be of practical importance in weather forecasting and weather modification. Several likely causes for discrepancies between models and observations are discussed and prospects for further research in this field are outlined.

  5. Incorporation of a Generalized Data Assimilation Module within a Global Photospheric Flux Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-31

    National Laboratory (LANL). The main outcome of this research effort is the state-of- the- art data assimilative photospheric flux transport model now...input to WSA. Such comparisons were made with the assistance of a University of New Mexico graduate student/Summer AFRL Space Scholar so that WSA...advance state-of-the- art 3-D MHD CORHEL coronal and solar wind model. In year seven (2014) significant progress was made in is this area. Figure 41

  6. A rat experimental model of glaucoma incorporating rapid-onset elevation of intraocular pressure

    OpenAIRE

    Smedowski, Adrian; Pietrucha-Dutczak, Marita; Kaarniranta, Kai; Lewin-Kowalik, Joanna

    2014-01-01

    Glaucoma is a chronic disease that causes structural and functional damage to retinal ganglion cells (RGC). The currently employed therapeutic options are not sufficient to prevent vision loss in patients with glaucoma; therefore, there is a need to develop novel therapies, which requires the creation of functional, repeatable and easy-to-utilize animal models for use in pre-clinical studies. The currently available models ensure only low to moderate damage in optic nerves, with high variatio...

  7. Improving River Flow Predictions from the NOAA NCRFC Forecasting Model by Incorporating Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuttle, S. E.; Jacobs, J. M.; Restrepo, P. J.; Deweese, M. M.; Connelly, B.; Buan, S.

    2016-12-01

    The NOAA National Weather Service North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) is responsible for issuing river flow forecasts for parts of the Upper Mississippi, Great Lakes, and Hudson Bay drainages, including the Red River of the North basin (RRB). The NCRFC uses an operational hydrologic modeling infrastructure called the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) for its operational forecasts, which currently links the SNOW-17 snow accumulation and ablation model, to the Sacramento-Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) rainfall-runoff model, to a number of hydrologic and hydraulic flow routing models. The operational model is lumped and requires only area-averaged precipitation and air temperature as inputs. NCRFC forecasters use observational data of hydrological state variables as a source of supplemental information during forecasting, and can use professional judgment to modify the model states in real time. In a few recent years (e.g. 2009, 2013), the RRB exhibited unexpected anomalous hydrologic behavior, resulting in overestimation of peak flood discharge by up to 70% and highlighting the need for observations with high temporal and spatial coverage. Unfortunately, observations of hydrological states (e.g. soil moisture, snow water equivalent (SWE)) are relatively scarce in the RRB. Satellite remote sensing can fill this need. We use Minnesota's Buffalo River watershed within the RRB as a test case and update the operational CHPS model using modifications based on satellite observations, including AMSR-E SWE and SMOS soil moisture estimates. We evaluate the added forecasting skill of the satellite-enhanced model compared to measured streamflow using hindcasts from 2010-2013.

  8. Enhanced stability of car-following model upon incorporation of short-term driving memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Da-Wei; Shi, Zhong-Ke; Ai, Wen-Huan

    2017-06-01

    Based on the full velocity difference model, a new car-following model is developed to investigate the effect of short-term driving memory on traffic flow in this paper. Short-term driving memory is introduced as the influence factor of driver's anticipation behavior. The stability condition of the newly developed model is derived and the modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equation is constructed to describe the traffic behavior near the critical point. Via numerical method, evolution of a small perturbation is investigated firstly. The results show that the improvement of this new car-following model over the previous ones lies in the fact that the new model can improve the traffic stability. Starting and breaking processes of vehicles in the signalized intersection are also investigated. The numerical simulations illustrate that the new model can successfully describe the driver's anticipation behavior, and that the efficiency and safety of the vehicles passing through the signalized intersection are improved by considering short-term driving memory.

  9. Incorporation of the time aspect into the liability-threshold model for case-control-family data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cederkvist, Luise; Holst, Klaus K.; Andersen, Klaus K.

    2017-01-01

    Familial aggregation and the role of genetic and environmental factors can be investigated through family studies analysed using the liability-threshold model. The liability-threshold model ignores the timing of events including the age of disease onset and right censoring, which can lead...... to estimates that are difficult to interpret and are potentially biased. We incorporate the time aspect into the liability-threshold model for case-control-family data following the same approach that has been applied in the twin setting. Thus, the data are considered as arising from a competing risks setting...... and inverse probability of censoring weights are used to adjust for right censoring. In the case-control-family setting, recognising the existence of competing events is highly relevant to the sampling of control probands. Because of the presence of multiple family members who may be censored at different...

  10. Incorporating GIS data into an agent-based model to support planning policy making for the development of creative industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Helin; Silva, Elisabete A.; Wang, Qian

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents an extension to the agent-based model "Creative Industries Development-Urban Spatial Structure Transformation" by incorporating GIS data. Three agent classes, creative firms, creative workers and urban government, are considered in the model, and the spatial environment represents a set of GIS data layers (i.e. road network, key housing areas, land use). With the goal to facilitate urban policy makers to draw up policies locally and optimise the land use assignment in order to support the development of creative industries, the improved model exhibited its capacity to assist the policy makers conducting experiments and simulating different policy scenarios to see the corresponding dynamics of the spatial distributions of creative firms and creative workers across time within a city/district. The spatiotemporal graphs and maps record the simulation results and can be used as a reference by the policy makers to adjust land use plans adaptively at different stages of the creative industries' development process.

  11. A stoichiometric producer-grazer model incorporating the effects of excess food-nutrient content on consumer dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peace, Angela; Zhao, Yuqin; Loladze, Irakli; Elser, James J; Kuang, Yang

    2013-08-01

    There has been important progress in understanding ecological dynamics through the development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. For example, modeling under this framework allows food quality to affect consumer dynamics. While the effects of nutrient deficiency on consumer growth are well understood, recent discoveries in ecological stoichiometry suggest that consumer dynamics are not only affected by insufficient food nutrient content (low phosphorus (P): carbon (C) ratio) but also by excess food nutrient content (high P:C). This phenomenon is known as the stoichiometric knife edge, in which animal growth is reduced not only by food with low P content but also by food with high P content, and needs to be incorporated into mathematical models. Here we present a Lotka-Volterra type model to investigate the growth response of Daphnia to algae of varying P:C ratios capturing the mechanism of the stoichiometric knife edge.

  12. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

    2013-04-01

    The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique

  13. Endogenous Receptor Agonists: Resolving Inflammation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerhard Bannenberg

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Controlled resolution or the physiologic resolution of a well-orchestrated inflammatory response at the tissue level is essential to return to homeostasis. A comprehensive understanding of the cellular and molecular events that control the termination of acute inflammation is needed in molecular terms given the widely held view that aberrant inflammation underlies many common diseases. This review focuses on recent advances in the understanding of the role of arachidonic acid and ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA–derived lipid mediators in regulating the resolution of inflammation. Using a functional lipidomic approach employing LC-MS-MS–based informatics, recent studies, reviewed herein, uncovered new families of local-acting chemical mediators actively biosynthesized during the resolution phase from the essential fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA. These new families of local chemical mediators are generated endogenously in exudates collected during the resolution phase, and were coined resolvins and protectins because specific members of these novel chemical families control both the duration and magnitude of inflammation in animal models of complex diseases. Recent advances on the biosynthesis, receptors, and actions of these novel anti-inflammatory and proresolving lipid mediators are reviewed with the aim to bring to attention the important role of specific lipid mediators as endogenous agonists in inflammation resolution.

  14. Endogeneity in prison risk classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shermer, Lauren O'Neill; Bierie, David M; Stock, Amber

    2013-10-01

    Security designation tools are a key feature of all prisons in the United States, intended as objective measures of risk that funnel inmates into security levels-to prison environments varying in degree of intrusiveness, restriction, dangerousness, and cost. These tools are mostly (if not all) validated by measuring inmates on a set of characteristics, using scores from summations of that information to assign inmates to prisons of varying security level, and then observing whether inmates assumed more risky did in fact offend more. That approach leaves open the possibility of endogeneity--that the harsher prisons are themselves bringing about higher misconduct and thus biasing coefficients assessing individual risk. The current study assesses this potential bias by following an entry cohort of inmates to more than 100 facilities in the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) and exploiting the substantial variation in classification scores within a given prison that derive from systematic overrides of security-level designations for reasons not associated with risk of misconduct. By estimating pooled models of misconduct along with prison-fixed effects specifications, the data show that a portion of the predictive accuracy thought associated with the risk-designation tool used in BOP was a function of facility-level contamination (endogeneity).

  15. Incorporating Detailed Chemical Characterization of Biomass Burning Emissions into Air Quality Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsanti, K.; Hatch, L. E.; Yokelson, R. J.; Stockwell, C.; Orlando, J. J.; Emmons, L. K.; Knote, C. J.; Wiedinmyer, C.

    2015-12-01

    Approximately 500 Tg/yr of non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs) are emitted by biomass burning (BB) to the global atmosphere, leading to the photochemical production of ozone (O3) and secondary particulate matter (PM). Until recently, in studies of BB emissions, a significant mass fraction of NMOCs (up to 80%) remained uncharacterized or unidentified. Models used to simulate the air quality impacts of BB thus have relied on very limited chemical characterization of the emitted compounds. During the Fourth Fire Lab at Missoula Experiment (FLAME-IV), an unprecedented fraction of emitted NMOCs were identified and quantified through the application of advanced analytical techniques. Here we use FLAME-IV data to improve BB emissions speciation profiles for individual fuel types. From box model simulations we evaluate the sensitivity of predicted precursor and pollutant concentrations (e.g., formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and terpene oxidation products) to differences in the emission speciation profiles, for a range of ambient conditions (e.g., high vs. low NOx). Appropriate representation of emitted NMOCs in models is critical for the accurate prediction of downwind air quality. Explicit simulation of hundreds of NMOCs is not feasible; therefore we also investigate the consequences of using existing assumptions and lumping schemes to map individual NMOCs to model surrogates and we consider alternative strategies. The updated BB emissions speciation profiles lead to markedly different surrogate compound distributions than the default speciation profiles, and box model results suggest that these differences are likely to affect predictions of PM and important gas-phase species in chemical transport models. This study highlights the potential for further BB emissions characterization studies, with concerted model development efforts, to improve the accuracy of BB predictions using necessarily simplified mechanisms.

  16. Modeling mode choice behavior incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel attributes based on rough sets theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Long; Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

    2014-01-01

    Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling.

  17. A kinematic wave model in Lagrangian coordinates incorporating capacity drop: Application to homogeneous road stretches and discontinuities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Knoop, Victor L.; Hoogendoorn, Serge P.

    2017-01-01

    On freeways, congestion always leads to capacity drop. This means the queue discharge rate is lower than the pre-queue capacity. Our recent research findings indicate that the queue discharge rate increases with the speed in congestion, that is the capacity drop is strongly correlated with the congestion state. Incorporating this varying capacity drop into a kinematic wave model is essential for assessing consequences of control strategies. However, to the best of authors' knowledge, no such a model exists. This paper fills the research gap by presenting a Lagrangian kinematic wave model. "Lagrangian" denotes that the new model is solved in Lagrangian coordinates. The new model can give capacity drops accompanying both of stop-and-go waves (on homogeneous freeway section) and standing queues (at nodes) in a network. The new model can be applied in a network operation. In this Lagrangian kinematic wave model, the queue discharge rate (or the capacity drop) is a function of vehicular speed in traffic jams. Four case studies on links as well as at lane-drop and on-ramp nodes show that the Lagrangian kinematic wave model can give capacity drops well, consistent with empirical observations.

  18. Endogenous, Imperfectly Competitive Business Cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whitta-Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen

    by monopolistic competition. An implicit assumption of barriers to entry justifies that the number of firms is fixed even when positive profits occur. It turns out that both market power of firms on the product markets and market power of unions on the labor markets make the occurrence of cycles more likely......We investigate how imperfect competition affects the occurrence and the properties of endogenous, rational expectations business cycles in an overlapping generations model with constant returns to scale in production. The model has explicit product and labor markets all characterized....... In particular, imperfect competition on the product markets and the positive profits associated with it may have the effect that there is a cycle even if the labor supply curve is increasing in the real-wage rate. For competitive cycles is required not only a decreasing labor supply curve, but a wage elasticity...

  19. Endogenous scheduling preferences and congestion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Small, Kenneth

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic models of congestion so far rely on exogenous scheduling preferences of travelers, based for example on disutility of deviation from a preferred departure or arrival time for a trip. This paper provides a more fundamental view in which travelers derive utility just from consumption...... and leisure, but agglomeration economies at home and at work lead to scheduling preferences forming endogenously. Using bottleneck congestion technology, we obtain an equilibrium queuing pattern consistent with a general version of the Vickrey bottleneck model. However, the policy implications are different....... Compared to the predictions of an analyst observing untolled equilibrium and taking scheduling preferences as exogenous, we find that both the optimal capacity and the marginal external cost of congestion have changed. The benefits of tolling are greater, and the optimal time varying toll is different....

  20. Incorporating harvest rates into the sex-age-kill model for white-tailed deer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

    2013-01-01

    Although monitoring population trends is an essential component of game species management, wildlife managers rarely have complete counts of abundance. Often, they rely on population models to monitor population trends. As imperfect representations of real-world populations, models must be rigorously evaluated to be applied appropriately. Previous research has evaluated population models for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus); however, the precision and reliability of these models when tested against empirical measures of variability and bias largely is untested. We were able to statistically evaluate the Pennsylvania sex-age-kill (PASAK) population model using realistic error measured using data from 1,131 radiocollared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. We used these data and harvest data (number killed, age-sex structure, etc.) to estimate precision of abundance estimates, identify the most efficient harvest data collection with respect to precision of parameter estimates, and evaluate PASAK model robustness to violation of assumptions. Median coefficient of variation (CV) estimates by Wildlife Management Unit, 13.2% in the most recent year, were slightly above benchmarks recommended for managing game species populations. Doubling reporting rates by hunters or doubling the number of deer checked by personnel in the field reduced median CVs to recommended levels. The PASAK model was robust to errors in estimates for adult male harvest rates but was sensitive to errors in subadult male harvest rates, especially in populations with lower harvest rates. In particular, an error in subadult (1.5-yr-old) male harvest rates resulted in the opposite error in subadult male, adult female, and juvenile population estimates. Also, evidence of a greater harvest probability for subadult female deer when compared with adult (≥2.5-yr-old) female deer resulted in a 9.5% underestimate of the population using the PASAK model. Because obtaining

  1. High-resolution Continental Scale Land Surface Model incorporating Land-water Management in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

    2016-12-01

    Land surface models have been used to assess water resources sustainability under changing Earth environment and increasing human water needs. Overwhelming observational records indicate that human activities have ubiquitous and pertinent effects on the hydrologic cycle; however, they have been crudely represented in large scale land surface models. In this study, we enhance an integrated continental-scale land hydrology model named Leaf-Hydro-Flood to better represent land-water management. The model is implemented at high resolution (5km grids) over the continental US. Surface water and groundwater are withdrawn based on actual practices. Newly added irrigation, water diversion, and dam operation schemes allow better simulations of stream flows, evapotranspiration, and infiltration. Results of various hydrologic fluxes and stores from two sets of simulation (one with and the other without human activities) are compared over a range of river basin and aquifer scales. The improved simulations of land hydrology have potential to build consistent modeling framework for human-water-climate interactions.

  2. Analytical solutions for a soil vapor extraction model that incorporates gas phase dispersion and molecular diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Junqi; Goltz, Mark N.

    2017-06-01

    To greatly simplify their solution, the equations describing radial advective/dispersive transport to an extraction well in a porous medium typically neglect molecular diffusion. While this simplification is appropriate to simulate transport in the saturated zone, it can result in significant errors when modeling gas phase transport in the vadose zone, as might be applied when simulating a soil vapor extraction (SVE) system to remediate vadose zone contamination. A new analytical solution for the equations describing radial gas phase transport of a sorbing contaminant to an extraction well is presented. The equations model advection, dispersion (including both mechanical dispersion and molecular diffusion), and rate-limited mass transfer of dissolved, separate phase, and sorbed contaminants into the gas phase. The model equations are analytically solved by using the Laplace transform with respect to time. The solutions are represented by confluent hypergeometric functions in the Laplace domain. The Laplace domain solutions are then evaluated using a numerical Laplace inversion algorithm. The solutions can be used to simulate the spatial distribution and the temporal evolution of contaminant concentrations during operation of a soil vapor extraction well. Results of model simulations show that the effect of gas phase molecular diffusion upon concentrations at the extraction well is relatively small, although the effect upon the distribution of concentrations in space is significant. This study provides a tool that can be useful in designing SVE remediation strategies, as well as verifying numerical models used to simulate SVE system performance.

  3. A Modeling Framework to Incorporate Effects of Infrastructure in Sociohydrological Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, R.

    2014-12-01

    In studying coupled natural-human systems, most modeling efforts focus on humans and the natural resources. In reality, however, humans rarely interact with these resources directly; the relationships between humans and resources are mediated by infrastructures. In sociohydrological systems, these include, for example, dams and irrigation canals. These infrastructures have important characteristics such as threshold behavior and a separate entity/organization tasked with maintaining them. These characteristics influence social dynamics within the system, which in turn determines the state of infrastructure and water usage, thereby exerting feedbacks onto the hydrological processes. Infrastructure is thus a necessary ingredient for modeling co-evolution of human and water in sociohydrological systems. A conceptual framework to address this gap has been proposed by Anderies, Janssen, and Ostrom (2004). Here we develop a model to operationalize the framework and report some preliminary results. Simple in its setup, the model highlights the structure of the social dilemmas and how it affects the system's sustainability. The model also offers a platform to explore how the system's sustainability may respond to external shocks from globalization and global climate change.

  4. New systematic methodology for incorporating dynamic heat transfer modelling in multi-phase biochemical reactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Arévalo, T; Lizarralde, I; Grau, P; Ayesa, E

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents a new modelling methodology for dynamically predicting the heat produced or consumed in the transformations of any biological reactor using Hess's law. Starting from a complete description of model components stoichiometry and formation enthalpies, the proposed modelling methodology has integrated successfully the simultaneous calculation of both the conventional mass balances and the enthalpy change of reaction in an expandable multi-phase matrix structure, which facilitates a detailed prediction of the main heat fluxes in the biochemical reactors. The methodology has been implemented in a plant-wide modelling methodology in order to facilitate the dynamic description of mass and heat throughout the plant. After validation with literature data, as illustrative examples of the capability of the methodology, two case studies have been described. In the first one, a predenitrification-nitrification dynamic process has been analysed, with the aim of demonstrating the easy integration of the methodology in any system. In the second case study, the simulation of a thermal model for an ATAD has shown the potential of the proposed methodology for analysing the effect of ventilation and influent characterization.

  5. The endogenous hydrogen sulfide producing enzyme cystathionine-beta synthase contributes to visceral hypersensitivity in a rat model of irritable bowel syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guang-Yin; Winston, John H; Shenoy, Mohan; Zhou, Shufang; Chen, Jiande D Z; Pasricha, Pankaj J

    2009-08-06

    The pathogenesis of visceral hypersensitivity, a characteristic pathophysiological feature of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), remains elusive. Recent studies suggest a role for hydrogen sulfide (H2S) in pain signaling but this has not been well studied in visceral models of hyperalgesia. We therefore determined the role for the endogenous H2S producing enzyme cystathionine-beta-synthetase (CBS) in a validated rat model of IBS-like chronic visceral hyperalgesia (CVH). CVH was induced by colonic injection of 0.5% acetic acid (AA) in 10-day-old rats and experiments were performed at 8-10 weeks of age. Dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons innervating the colon were labeled by injection of DiI (1,1'-dioleyl-3,3,3',3-tetramethylindocarbocyanine methanesulfonate) into the colon wall. In rat DRG, CBS-immunoreactivity was observed in approximately 85% of predominantly small- and medium-sized neurons. Colon specific DRG neurons revealed by retrograde labeling DiI were all CBS-positive. CBS-positive colon neurons co-expressed TRPV1 or P2X3 receptors. Western blotting analysis showed that CBS expression was significantly increased in colon DRGs 8 weeks after neonatal AA-treatment. Furthermore, the CBS inhibitor hydroxylamine markedly attenuated the abdominal withdrawal reflex scores in response to colorectal distention in rats with CVH. By contrast, the H2S donor NaHS significantly enhanced the frequency of action potentials of colon specific DRG neurons evoked by 2 times rheobase electrical stimulation. Our results suggest that upregulation of CBS expression in colonic DRG neurons and H2S signaling may play an important role in developing CVH, thus identifying a specific neurobiological target for the treatment of CVH in functional bowel syndromes.

  6. The endogenous hydrogen sulfide producing enzyme cystathionine-β synthase contributes to visceral hypersensitivity in a rat model of irritable bowel syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Jiande DZ

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The pathogenesis of visceral hypersensitivity, a characteristic pathophysiological feature of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS, remains elusive. Recent studies suggest a role for hydrogen sulfide (H2S in pain signaling but this has not been well studied in visceral models of hyperalgesia. We therefore determined the role for the endogenous H2S producing enzyme cystathionine-β-synthetase (CBS in a validated rat model of IBS-like chronic visceral hyperalgesia (CVH. CVH was induced by colonic injection of 0.5% acetic acid (AA in 10-day-old rats and experiments were performed at 8–10 weeks of age. Dorsal root ganglion (DRG neurons innervating the colon were labeled by injection of DiI (1,1'-dioleyl-3,3,3',3-tetramethylindocarbocyanine methanesulfonate into the colon wall. Results In rat DRG, CBS-immunoreactivity was observed in approximately 85% of predominantly small- and medium-sized neurons. Colon specific DRG neurons revealed by retrograde labeling DiI were all CBS-positive. CBS-positive colon neurons co-expressed TRPV1 or P2X3 receptors. Western blotting analysis showed that CBS expression was significantly increased in colon DRGs 8 weeks after neonatal AA-treatment. Furthermore, the CBS inhibitor hydroxylamine markedly attenuated the abdominal withdrawal reflex scores in response to colorectal distention in rats with CVH. By contrast, the H2S donor NaHS significantly enhanced the frequency of action potentials of colon specific DRG neurons evoked by 2 times rheobase electrical stimulation. Conclusion Our results suggest that upregulation of CBS expression in colonic DRG neurons and H2S signaling may play an important role in developing CVH, thus identifying a specific neurobiological target for the treatment of CVH in functional bowel syndromes.

  7. Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    relating frost-cracking intensity to the mean annual air temperature (MAAT). The model integrates temperature variations in the subsurface following an annually oscillating surface temperature. Hales and Roering (2007) assumed that frost-cracking intensity is a simple function of the temperature gradient......Little is known about the long-term influence of periglacial processes on landscape evolution in cold areas, even though the efficiency of frost cracking on the breakdown of rocks has been documented by observations and experiments. Cold-room laboratory experiments show that a continuous water...... by their model and the elevation of scree deposits in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. This result suggests a link between frost-cracking efficiency and long-term landscape evolution and thus merits further investigations. Anderson et al. (2012) expanded this early model by including the effects of latent heat...

  8. Modeling & Informatics at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated: our philosophy for sustained impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGaughey, Georgia; Patrick Walters, W.

    2016-11-01

    Molecular modelers and informaticians have the unique opportunity to integrate cross-functional data using a myriad of tools, methods and visuals to generate information. Using their drug discovery expertise, information is transformed to knowledge that impacts drug discovery. These insights are often times formulated locally and then applied more broadly, which influence the discovery of new medicines. This is particularly true in an organization where the members are exposed to projects throughout an organization, such as in the case of the global Modeling & Informatics group at Vertex Pharmaceuticals. From its inception, Vertex has been a leader in the development and use of computational methods for drug discovery. In this paper, we describe the Modeling & Informatics group at Vertex and the underlying philosophy, which has driven this team to sustain impact on the discovery of first-in-class transformative medicines.

  9. The design of a wind tunnel VSTOL fighter model incorporating turbine powered engine simulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, R. O.; Maraz, M. R.; Hiley, P. E.

    1981-01-01

    A wind-tunnel model of a supersonic VSTOL fighter aircraft configuration has been developed for use in the evaluation of airframe-propulsion system aerodynamic interactions. The model may be employed with conventional test techniques, where configuration aerodynamics are measured in a flow-through mode and incremental nozzle-airframe interactions are measured in a jet-effects mode, and with the Compact Multimission Aircraft Propulsion Simulator which is capable of the simultaneous simulation of inlet and exhaust nozzle flow fields so as to allow the evaluation of the extent of inlet and nozzle flow field coupling. The basic configuration of the twin-engine model has a geometrically close-coupled canard and wing, and a moderately short nacelle with nonaxisymmetric vectorable exhaust nozzles near the wing trailing edge, and may be converted to a canardless configuration with an extremely short nacelle. Testing is planned to begin in the summer of 1982.

  10. Incorporation of leaf nitrogen observations for biochemical and environmental modeling of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, E; Gjetterman, B; Abrahamsen, P

    2007-01-01

    relation to photosynthetic (Rubisco) capacity should also be known to quantify leaf N impacts on canopy photosynthesis. In this study, impacts of the amount and vertical distribution of leaf N contents on canopy photosynthesis were investigated by combining field measurements and photosynthesis modelling....... While most canopy photosynthesis models assume an exponential vertical profile of leaf N contents in the canopy, the field measurements showed that well-fertilized fields may have a uniform or exponential profile, and senescent canopies have reduced levels of N contents in upper leaves. The sensitivity...... of simulated canopy photosynthesis to the different (observed) N profiles was examined using a multi-layer sun/shade biochemically based photosynthesis model and found to be important; ie. for a well-fertilized barley field, the use of exponential instead of uniform vertical N profiles increased the annual...

  11. Eatwell Guide: modelling the dietary and cost implications of incorporating new sugar and fibre guidelines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scarborough, Peter; Kaur, Asha; Cobiac, Linda

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To model food group consumption and price of diet associated with achieving UK dietary recommendations while deviating as little as possible from the current UK diet, in order to support the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (now called the Eatwell Guide). Design...... Optimisation modelling, minimising an objective function of the difference between population mean modelled and current consumption of 125 food groups, and constraints of nutrient and food-based recommendations. Setting The UK. Population Adults aged 19 years and above from the National Diet and Nutrition...... Survey 2008–2011. Main outcome measures Proportion of diet consisting of major foods groups and price of the optimised diet. Results The optimised diet has an increase in consumption of ‘potatoes, bread, rice, pasta and other starchy carbohydrates’ (+69%) and ‘fruit and vegetables’ (+54%) and reductions...

  12. Incorporation of leaf nitrogen observations for biochemical and environmental modeling of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, E; Gjetterman, B; Abrahamsen, P

    2007-01-01

    relation to photosynthetic (Rubisco) capacity should also be known to quantify leaf N impacts on canopy photosynthesis. In this study, impacts of the amount and vertical distribution of leaf N contents on canopy photosynthesis were investigated by combining field measurements and photosynthesis modelling....... While most canopy photosynthesis models assume an exponential vertical profile of leaf N contents in the canopy, the field measurements showed that well-fertilized fields may have a uniform or exponential profile, and senescent canopies have reduced levels of N contents in upper leaves. The sensitivity...... of simulated canopy photosynthesis to the different (observed) N profiles was examined using a multi-layer sun/shade biochemically based photosynthesis model and found to be important; ie. for a well-fertilized barley field, the use of exponential instead of uniform vertical N profiles increased the annual...

  13. Modeling & Informatics at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated: our philosophy for sustained impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGaughey, Georgia; Patrick Walters, W.

    2017-03-01

    Molecular modelers and informaticians have the unique opportunity to integrate cross-functional data using a myriad of tools, methods and visuals to generate information. Using their drug discovery expertise, information is transformed to knowledge that impacts drug discovery. These insights are often times formulated locally and then applied more broadly, which influence the discovery of new medicines. This is particularly true in an organization where the members are exposed to projects throughout an organization, such as in the case of the global Modeling & Informatics group at Vertex Pharmaceuticals. From its inception, Vertex has been a leader in the development and use of computational methods for drug discovery. In this paper, we describe the Modeling & Informatics group at Vertex and the underlying philosophy, which has driven this team to sustain impact on the discovery of first-in-class transformative medicines.

  14. Novel Method for Incorporating Model Uncertainties into Gravitational Wave Parameter Estimates

    CERN Document Server

    Moore, Christopher J

    2014-01-01

    Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of detection and leads to a systematic error in the parameter estimates. In the analysis of data from gravitational wave detectors, for example, accurate waveform templates can be computed using numerical methods, but the prohibitive cost of these simulations means this can only be done for a small handful of parameters. In this work a novel method to fold model uncertainties into data analysis is proposed; the waveform uncertainty is analytically marginalised over using with a prior distribution constructed by using Gaussian process regression to interpolate the waveform difference from a small training set of accurate templates. The method is well motivated, easy to implement, and no more computationally expensive than standard techniques. The new method is shown to perform...

  15. Improving the phenotype predictions of a yeast genome-scale metabolic model by incorporating enzymatic constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanchez, Benjamin J.; Zhang, Xi-Cheng; Nilsson, Avlant

    2017-01-01

    Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) are widely used to calculate metabolic phenotypes. They rely on defining a set of constraints, the most common of which is that the production of metabolites and/or growth are limited by the carbon source uptake rate. However, enzyme abundances and kinetics......, which act as limitations on metabolic fluxes, are not taken into account. Here, we present GECKO, a method that enhances a GEM to account for enzymes as part of reactions, thereby ensuring that each metabolic flux does not exceed its maximum capacity, equal to the product of the enzyme's abundance...... with stress, or overexpressing a specific pathway. GECKO also allows to directly integrate quantitative proteomics data; by doing so, we significantly reduced flux variability of the model, in over 60% of metabolic reactions. Additionally, the model gives insight into the distribution of enzyme usage between...

  16. Modeling of lithium-sulfur batteries incorporating the effect of Li2S precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Y. X.; Zhao, T. S.; Liu, M.; Tan, P.; Zeng, Y. K.

    2016-12-01

    In this work, we present a one-dimensional model for the discharge behavior of lithium-sulfur (Li-S) batteries. In addition to the consideration of multiple-step polysulfide dissolution and reductions, the surface nucleation and growth kinetics coupled with electrochemical reactions is particularly exploited for describing the Li2S precipitation. Unlike previous models that overlook the rate-dependent precipitation phenomenon, our model reveals that discrete Li2S particle growth becomes suppressed at higher rates, resulting in smaller Li2S precipitates with a more uniform particle size distribution and a limited discharge capacity. Experimental discharge curves and discharge product observation adequately confirm our numerical results. It is further predicted that promoting the growth of Li2S particles, including lowering the initial nucleation rate and providing a suitable amount of initial nucleation sites, can efficiently prolong the Li-S battery's discharge capacity.

  17. Development of a used fuel cladding damage model incorporating circumferential and radial hydride responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ostien, Jakob T.; Hansen, Glen

    2014-04-01

    At the completion of the fuel drying process, used fuel Zry4 cladding typically exhibits a significant population of δ-hydride inclusions. These inclusions are in the form of small platelets that are generally oriented both circumferentially and radially within the cladding material. There is concern that radially-oriented hydride inclusions may weaken the cladding material and lead to issues during used fuel storage and transportation processes. A high fidelity model of the mechanical behavior of hydrides has utility in both designing fuel cladding to be more resistant to this hydride-induced weakening and also in suggesting modifications to drying, storage, and transport operations to reduce the impact of hydride formation and/or the avoidance of loading scenarios that could overly stress the radial inclusions. We develop a mechanical model for the Zry4-hydride system that, given a particular morphology of hydride inclusions, allows the calculation of the response of the hydrided cladding under various loading scenarios. The model treats the Zry4 matrix material as J2 elastoplastic, and treats the hydrides as platelets oriented in predefined directions (e.g., circumferentially and radially). The model is hosted by the Albany analysis framework, where a finite element approximation of the weak form of the cladding boundary value problem is solved using a preconditioned Newton-Krylov approach. Instead of forming the required system Jacobian operator directly or approximating its action with a differencing operation, Albany leverages the Trilinos Sacado package to form the Jacobian via automatic differentiation. We present results that describe the performance of the model in comparison with as-fabricated Zry4 as well as HB Robinson fuel cladding. Further, we also present performance results that demonstrate the efficacy of the overall solution method employed to host the model.

  18. Development of a used fuel cladding damage model incorporating circumferential and radial hydride responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Qiushi, E-mail: qiushi@clemson.edu [Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634 (United States); Ostien, Jakob T., E-mail: jtostie@sandia.gov [Mechanics of Materials Dept. 8256, Sandia National Laboratories, P.O. Box 969, Livermore, CA 94551-0969 (United States); Hansen, Glen, E-mail: gahanse@sandia.gov [Computational Multiphysics Dept. 1443, Sandia National Laboratories, P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185-1321 (United States)

    2014-04-01

    At the completion of the fuel drying process, used fuel Zry4 cladding typically exhibits a significant population of δ-hydride inclusions. These inclusions are in the form of small platelets that are generally oriented both circumferentially and radially within the cladding material. There is concern that radially-oriented hydride inclusions may weaken the cladding material and lead to issues during used fuel storage and transportation processes. A high fidelity model of the mechanical behavior of hydrides has utility in both designing fuel cladding to be more resistant to this hydride-induced weakening and also in suggesting modifications to drying, storage, and transport operations to reduce the impact of hydride formation and/or the avoidance of loading scenarios that could overly stress the radial inclusions. We develop a mechanical model for the Zry4-hydride system that, given a particular morphology of hydride inclusions, allows the calculation of the response of the hydrided cladding under various loading scenarios. The model treats the Zry4 matrix material as J{sub 2} elastoplastic, and treats the hydrides as platelets oriented in predefined directions (e.g., circumferentially and radially). The model is hosted by the Albany analysis framework, where a finite element approximation of the weak form of the cladding boundary value problem is solved using a preconditioned Newton–Krylov approach. Instead of forming the required system Jacobian operator directly or approximating its action with a differencing operation, Albany leverages the Trilinos Sacado package to form the Jacobian via automatic differentiation. We present results that describe the performance of the model in comparison with as-fabricated Zry4 as well as HB Robinson fuel cladding. Further, we also present performance results that demonstrate the efficacy of the overall solution method employed to host the model.

  19. A dimensional model of personality disorder: incorporating DSM Cluster A characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tackett, Jennifer L; Silberschmidt, Amy L; Krueger, Robert F; Sponheim, Scott R

    2008-05-01

    The authors articulate an expanded dimensional model of personality pathology to better account for symptoms of DSM-defined Cluster A personality disorders. Two hundred forty participants (98 first-degree relatives of probands with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, 92 community control participants, and 50 first-degree relatives of probands with bipolar disorder) completed a dimensional personality pathology questionnaire, a measure of schizotypal characteristics, and Chapman measures of psychosis proneness. Scales from all questionnaires were subjected to an exploratory factor analysis with varimax rotation. A 5-factor structure of personality pathology emerged from the analyses, with Peculiarity forming an additional factor to the common 4-factor structure of personality pathology (consisting of Introversion, Emotional Dysregulation, Antagonism, and Compulsivity). These results support a 5-factor dimensional model of personality pathology that better accounts for phenomena encompassed by the Cluster A personality disorders in DSM-IV-TR (4th ed., text revised; American Psychiatric Association, 2000). This study has implications for the consideration of a dimensional model of personality disorder in DSM-V by offering a more comprehensive structural model that builds on previous work in this area.

  20. An Improved Atmospheric Vector Radiative Transfer Model Incorporating Rough Ocean Boundaries

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FAN Xue-Hua; CHEN Hong-Bin; HAN Zhi-Gang; LIN Long-Fu

    2010-01-01

    The radiative transfer model (RT3), a vector radiative transfer (VRT) scheme in a plane-parallel at-mosphere, was bounded by a rough ocean surface in this study. The boundary problem was solved using a Fourier series decomposition of the radiation field as a function of the azimuth. For the case of a rough ocean surface, the decomposition was obtained by developing both the Fresnel reflection matrix and the probability distribution of the water facet orientation as Fourier series. The effect of shadowing by ocean surface waves was also considered in the boundary condition. The VRT model can compute the intensity and degree of polarization of the light at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), the ocean surface, and any level of the atmosphere in the ocean-atmosphere system. The results obtained by our model are in good agreement with those computed by Ahmad's model. The simulated results showed that the shadow effects of wave facets on the intensity and the degree of polarization are negligible except at the ocean surface near the grazing angle, possi-bly because we did not consider the effect of white caps.

  1. An explicit surface-potential-based MOSFET model incorporating the quantum mechanical effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Dipanjan; Dutta, Aloke K.

    2006-07-01

    An explicit surface-potential-based MOSFET model has been proposed in this work here, which takes into account the quantum mechanical effects that arise in deep-submicron MOSFETs. The coupled Schrödinger's and Poisson's equations have been solved by using a variational wave function approach, as proposed by Fang and Howard. The resulting surface potential model is analytical, technology mapped, and completely continuous over the entire range of operation. The surface potential and the inversion charge density calculated using the proposed model show good match with the results of the numerical simulations obtained from a self-consistent Schrödinger-Poisson solver for a wide range of substrate doping and oxide thickness. The simulated values of the drain current match closely with the experimental results published elsewhere. The device small-signal parameters, e.g., transconductance, output conductance, etc., pass the standard benchmark tests suggested by Suyama and Tsividis qualitatively, thereby validating the approach of the model presented.

  2. Incorporating Artificial Neural Networks in the dynamic thermal-hydraulic model of a controlled cryogenic circuit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carli, S.; Bonifetto, R.; Savoldi, L.; Zanino, R.

    2015-09-01

    A model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is developed for the heated line portion of a cryogenic circuit, where supercritical helium (SHe) flows and that also includes a cold circulator, valves, pipes/cryolines and heat exchangers between the main loop and a saturated liquid helium (LHe) bath. The heated line mimics the heat load coming from the superconducting magnets to their cryogenic cooling circuits during the operation of a tokamak fusion reactor. An ANN is trained, using the output from simulations of the circuit performed with the 4C thermal-hydraulic (TH) code, to reproduce the dynamic behavior of the heated line, including for the first time also scenarios where different types of controls act on the circuit. The ANN is then implemented in the 4C circuit model as a new component, which substitutes the original 4C heated line model. For different operational scenarios and control strategies, a good agreement is shown between the simplified ANN model results and the original 4C results, as well as with experimental data from the HELIOS facility confirming the suitability of this new approach which, extended to an entire magnet systems, can lead to real-time control of the cooling loops and fast assessment of control strategies for heat load smoothing to the cryoplant.

  3. Development of a mission-based funding model for undergraduate medical education: incorporation of quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagnaro-Green, Alex; Roe, David; Soto-Greene, Maria; Joffe, Russell

    2008-01-01

    Increasing financial pressures, along with a desire to realign resources with institutional priorities, has resulted in the adoption of mission-based funding (MBF) at many medical schools. The lack of inclusion of quality and the time and expense in developing and implementing mission based funding are major deficiencies in the models reported to date. In academic year 2002-2003 New Jersey Medical School developed a model that included both quantity and quality in the education metric and that was departmentally based. Eighty percent of the undergraduate medical education allocation was based on the quantity of undergraduate medical education taught by the department ($7.35 million), and 20% ($1.89 million) was allocated based on the quality of the education delivered. Quality determinations were made by the educational leadership based on student evaluations and departmental compliance with educational administrative requirements. Evolution of the model has included the development of a faculty oversight committee and the integration of peer evaluation in the determination of educational quality. Six departments had a documented increase in quality over time, and one department had a transient decrease in quality. The MBF model has been well accepted by chairs, educational leaders, and faculty and has been instrumental in enhancing the stature of education at our institution.

  4. Incorporating Religiosity into a Developmental Model of Positive Family Functioning across Generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spilman, Sarah K.; Neppl, Tricia K.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Schofield, Thomas J.; Conger, Rand D.

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluated a developmental model of intergenerational continuity in religiosity and its association with observed competency in romantic and parent-child relationships across 2 generations. Using multi-informant data from the Family Transitions Project, a 20-year longitudinal study of families that began during early adolescence (N =…

  5. Incorporating Logistics in Freight Transport Demand Models: State-of-the-Art and Research Opportunities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tavasszy, L.A.; Ruijgrok, K.; Davydenko, I.

    2012-01-01

    Freight transport demand is a demand derived from all the activities needed to move goods between locations of production to locations of consumption, including trade, logistics and transportation. A good representation of logistics in freight transport demand models allows us to predict the effects

  6. Incorporating Retention Time to Refine Models Predicting Thermal Regimes of Stream Networks Across New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thermal regimes are a critical factor in models predicting effects of watershed management activities on fish habitat suitability. We have assembled a database of lotic temperature time series across New England (> 7000 station-year combinations) from state and Federal data s...

  7. Incorporating Religiosity into a Developmental Model of Positive Family Functioning across Generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spilman, Sarah K.; Neppl, Tricia K.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Schofield, Thomas J.; Conger, Rand D.

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluated a developmental model of intergenerational continuity in religiosity and its association with observed competency in romantic and parent-child relationships across 2 generations. Using multi-informant data from the Family Transitions Project, a 20-year longitudinal study of families that began during early adolescence (N =…

  8. A Probabilistic Model of Visual Working Memory: Incorporating Higher Order Regularities into Working Memory Capacity Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Timothy F.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2013-01-01

    When remembering a real-world scene, people encode both detailed information about specific objects and higher order information like the overall gist of the scene. However, formal models of change detection, like those used to estimate visual working memory capacity, assume observers encode only a simple memory representation that includes no…

  9. Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. de Pooter (Michiel); F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation

  10. Process model for ammonia volatilization from anaerobic swine lagoons incorporating varying wind speeds and biogas bubbling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammonia volatilization from treatment lagoons varies widely with the total ammonia concentration, pH, temperature, suspended solids, atmospheric ammonia concentration above the water surface, and wind speed. Ammonia emissions were estimated with a process-based mechanistic model integrating ammonia ...

  11. Numerical Computation of a Continuous-thrust State Transition Matrix Incorporating Accurate Hardware and Ephemeris Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellison, Donald; Conway, Bruce; Englander, Jacob

    2015-01-01

    A significant body of work exists showing that providing a nonlinear programming (NLP) solver with expressions for the problem constraint gradient substantially increases the speed of program execution and can also improve the robustness of convergence, especially for local optimizers. Calculation of these derivatives is often accomplished through the computation of spacecraft's state transition matrix (STM). If the two-body gravitational model is employed as is often done in the context of preliminary design, closed form expressions for these derivatives may be provided. If a high fidelity dynamics model, that might include perturbing forces such as the gravitational effect from multiple third bodies and solar radiation pressure is used then these STM's must be computed numerically. We present a method for the power hardward model and a full ephemeris model. An adaptive-step embedded eight order Dormand-Prince numerical integrator is discussed and a method for the computation of the time of flight derivatives in this framework is presented. The use of these numerically calculated derivatieves offer a substantial improvement over finite differencing in the context of a global optimizer. Specifically the inclusion of these STM's into the low thrust missiondesign tool chain in use at NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center allows for an increased preliminary mission design cadence.

  12. Incorporating Protein Biosynthesis into the Saccharomyces cerevisiae Genome-scale Metabolic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olivares Hernandez, Roberto

    by a rapidly growing cell. To extend the model including protein synthesis, from the survey of the available literature was possible to identify a few enzymatic reactions and gene functions in the early steps of gene expression for proteins: mRNA transcription, mRNA processing, mRNA export out of the nucleus...

  13. Teaching Note--Incorporating Journal Clubs into Social Work Education: An Exploratory Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Megan; Fawley-King, Kya; Stone, Susan I.; Accomazzo, Sarah M.

    2013-01-01

    This article outlines the implementation of a journal club for master's and doctoral social work students interested in mental health practice. It defines educational journal clubs and discusses the history of journal clubs in medical education and the applicability of the model to social work education. The feasibility of implementing…

  14. Novel method for incorporating model uncertainties into gravitational wave parameter estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Christopher J; Gair, Jonathan R

    2014-12-19

    Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications, these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of detection and leads to a systematic error in the parameter estimates. In the analysis of data from gravitational wave detectors, for example, accurate waveform templates can be computed using numerical methods, but the prohibitive cost of these simulations means this can only be done for a small handful of parameters. In this Letter, a novel method to fold model uncertainties into data analysis is proposed; the waveform uncertainty is analytically marginalized over using with a prior distribution constructed by using Gaussian process regression to interpolate the waveform difference from a small training set of accurate templates. The method is well motivated, easy to implement, and no more computationally expensive than standard techniques. The new method is shown to perform extremely well when applied to a toy problem. While we use the application to gravitational wave data analysis to motivate and illustrate the technique, it can be applied in any context where model uncertainties exist.

  15. Teaching for Art Criticism: Incorporating Feldman's Critical Analysis Learning Model in Students' Studio Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramaniam, Maithreyi; Hanafi, Jaffri; Putih, Abu Talib

    2016-01-01

    This study adopted 30 first year graphic design students' artwork, with critical analysis using Feldman's model of art criticism. Data were analyzed quantitatively; descriptive statistical techniques were employed. The scores were viewed in the form of mean score and frequencies to determine students' performances in their critical ability.…

  16. A multi-component model of the developing retinocollicular pathway incorporating axonal and synaptic growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith B Godfrey

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available During development, neurons extend axons to different brain areas and produce stereotypical patterns of connections. The mechanisms underlying this process have been intensively studied in the visual system, where retinal neurons form retinotopic maps in the thalamus and superior colliculus. The mechanisms active in map formation include molecular guidance cues, trophic factor release, spontaneous neural activity, spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP, synapse creation and retraction, and axon growth, branching and retraction. To investigate how these mechanisms interact, a multi-component model of the developing retinocollicular pathway was produced based on phenomenological approximations of each of these mechanisms. Core assumptions of the model were that the probabilities of axonal branching and synaptic growth are highest where the combined influences of chemoaffinity and trophic factor cues are highest, and that activity-dependent release of trophic factors acts to stabilize synapses. Based on these behaviors, model axons produced morphologically realistic growth patterns and projected to retinotopically correct locations in the colliculus. Findings of the model include that STDP, gradient detection by axonal growth cones and lateral connectivity among collicular neurons were not necessary for refinement, and that the instructive cues for axonal growth appear to be mediated first by molecular guidance and then by neural activity. Although complex, the model appears to be insensitive to variations in how the component developmental mechanisms are implemented. Activity, molecular guidance and the growth and retraction of axons and synapses are common features of neural development, and the findings of this study may have relevance beyond organization in the retinocollicular pathway.

  17. Modeling Ear-Canal Acoustics, Incorporating Visco-Thermal Effects and the Influence of the Middle Ear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gowdy, Lauren E.; Withnell, Robert H.

    2011-11-01

    The ear canal, below about 6 kHz, is well described by a uniform cylinder (sound propagates predominantly as plane waves) with the middle ear being a non-rigid termination. A non-rigid termination can be viewed as altering, as a function of frequency, the acoustic length and radius of the cylinder. It is generally assumed that sound transmission in the ear canal over this frequency range is lossless. This paper presents a method for calculating the influence of visco-thermal losses and the middle ear on ear canal acoustics. The acoustic input impedance was derived from sound pressure measurements in the ear canal and then a nonlinear least-square-fit to the data with a one-dimensional model incorporating visco-thermal losses generated length, radius, and middle ear impedance parameters. It was found that a rigid wall assumption for visco-thermal calculations was insufficient to account for damping in the ear canal. The properties of the ear canal wall (not being a rigid, low-friction surface), incorporated into visco-thermal losses as a scaling factor, provided a better fit to the data. Viscous and thermal losses were both found to affect sound propagation in the ear canal, viscous losses being more significant, altering the acoustic input impedance of the ear primarily in the region of the standing wave frequency. The model data suggests that the middle ear influences ear canal acoustics up to about 3 kHz.

  18. A density dependent delayed predator-prey model with Beddington-DeAngelis type function response incorporating a prey refuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Jai Prakash; Abbas, Syed; Thakur, Manoj

    2015-05-01

    This paper describes a predator-prey model incorporating a prey refuge. The feeding rate of consumers (predators) per consumer (i.e. functional response) is considered to be of Beddington-DeAngelis type. The Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is similar to the Holling-type II functional response but contains an extra term describing mutual interference by predators. We investigate the role of prey refuge and degree of mutual interference among predators in the dynamics of system. The dynamics of the system is discussed mainly from the point of view of permanence and stability. We obtain conditions that affect the persistence of the system. Local and global asymptotic stability of various equilibrium solutions is explored to understand the dynamics of the model system. The global asymptotic stability of positive interior equilibrium solution is established using suitable Lyapunov functional. The dynamical behaviour of the delayed system is further analyzed through incorporating discrete type gestation delay of predator. It is found that Hopf bifurcation occurs when the delay parameter τ crosses some critical value. The analytical results found in the paper are illustrated with the help of numerical examples.

  19. Incorporation of water vapor transfer in the JULES land surface model: Implications for key soil variables and land surface fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Gonzalez, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Luigi Vidale, Pier; Braud, Isabelle

    2012-05-01

    This study focuses on the mechanisms underlying water and heat transfer in upper soil layers, and their effects on soil physical prognostic variables and the individual components of the energy balance. The skill of the JULES (Joint UK Environment Simulator) land surface model (LSM) to simulate key soil variables, such as soil moisture content and surface temperature, and fluxes such as evaporation, is investigated. The Richards equation for soil water transfer, as used in most LSMs, was updated by incorporating isothermal and thermal water vapor transfer. The model was tested for three sites representative of semiarid and temperate arid climates: the Jornada site (New Mexico, USA), Griffith site (Australia), and Audubon site (Arizona, USA). Water vapor flux was found to contribute significantly to the water and heat transfer in the upper soil layers. This was mainly due to isothermal vapor diffusion; thermal vapor flux also played a role at the Jornada site just after rainfall events. Inclusion of water vapor flux had an effect on the diurnal evolution of evaporation, soil moisture content, and surface temperature. The incorporation of additional processes, such as water vapor flux among others, into LSMs may improve the coupling between the upper soil layers and the atmosphere, which in turn could increase the reliability of weather and climate predictions.

  20. Incorporating the influence of sub-grid heterogeneity in regional-scale contaminant transport models

    CERN Document Server

    Baeumer, Boris; Schumer, Rina

    2013-01-01

    Numerical transport models based on the advection-dispersion equation (ADE) are built on the assumption that sub-grid cell transport is Fickian such that dispersive spreading around the average velocity is symmetric and without significant tailing on the front edge of a solute plume. However, anomalous diffusion in the form of super-diffusion due to preferential pathways in an aquifer has been observed in field data, challenging the assumption of Fickian dispersion at the local scale. This study develops a fully Lagrangian method to simulate sub-grid super-diffusion in a multi-dimensional regional-scale transport. The underlying concept is based on previous observations that solutions to space-fractional ADEs, which can describe super-diffusive dispersion, can be obtained by transforming solutions of classical ADEs. The transformations are equivalent to randomizing particle travel time or relative velocity for each model time step. Here, the time randomizing procedure known as subordination is applied to flow...

  1. Incorporating social contact data in spatio-temporal models for infectious disease spread

    CERN Document Server

    Meyer, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    Routine public health surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to weekly counts of reported cases - possibly stratified by region and/or age group. A well-established approach to the statistical analysis of such surveillance data are endemic-epidemic time-series models. The temporal dependence inherent to communicable diseases is thereby taken into account by an observation-driven formulation conditioning on past counts. Additional spatial dynamics in areal-level counts are largely driven by human travel and can be captured by power-law weights based on the order of adjacency. However, social contacts are highly assortative also with respect to age. For example, characteristic pathways of directly transmitted pathogens are linked to childcare facilities, schools and nursing homes. We therefore investigate how a spatio-temporal endemic-epidemic model can be extended to take social contact data into account. The approach is illustrated in a case study on norovirus gastroenteritis in Berlin, 201...

  2. Incorporating imperfect detection into joint models of communites: A response to Warton et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beissinger, Steven R.; Iknayan, Kelly J.; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Zipkin, Elise; Dorazio, Robert; Royle, Andy; Kery, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Warton et al. [1] advance community ecology by describing a statistical framework that can jointly model abundances (or distributions) across many taxa to quantify how community properties respond to environmental variables. This framework specifies the effects of both measured and unmeasured (latent) variables on the abundance (or occurrence) of each species. Latent variables are random effects that capture the effects of both missing environmental predictors and correlations in parameter values among different species. As presented in Warton et al., however, the joint modeling framework fails to account for the common problem of detection or measurement errors that always accompany field sampling of abundance or occupancy, and are well known to obscure species- and community-level inferences.

  3. A Dynamic Economic Dispatch Model Incorporating Wind Power Based on Chance Constrained Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wushan Cheng

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to maintain the stability and security of the power system, the uncertainty and intermittency of wind power must be taken into account in economic dispatch (ED problems. In this paper, a dynamic economic dispatch (DED model based on chance constrained programming is presented and an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO approach is proposed to solve the problem. Wind power is regarded as a random variable and is included in the chance constraint. New formulation of up and down spinning reserve constraints are presented under expectation meaning. The improved PSO algorithm combines a feasible region adjustment strategy with a hill climbing search operation based on the basic PSO. Simulations are performed under three distinct test systems with different generators. Results show that both the proposed DED model and the improved PSO approach are effective.

  4. Incorporating prediction models in the SelfLet framework: a plugin approach

    CERN Document Server

    Calcavecchia, Nicolo' Maria

    2010-01-01

    A complex pervasive system is typically composed of many cooperating \\emph{nodes}, running on machines with different capabilities, and pervasively distributed across the environment. These systems pose several new challenges such as the need for the nodes to manage autonomously and dynamically in order to adapt to changes detected in the environment. To address the above issue, a number of autonomic frameworks has been proposed. These usually offer either predefined self-management policies or programmatic mechanisms for creating new policies at design time. From a more theoretical perspective, some works propose the adoption of prediction models as a way to anticipate the evolution of the system and to make timely decisions. In this context, our aim is to experiment with the integration of prediction models within a specific autonomic framework in order to assess the feasibility of such integration in a setting where the characteristics of dynamicity, decentralization, and cooperation among nodes are import...

  5. Incorporation of Advanced Activation Treatments into CESM/CAM5: Model Evaluation and Impacts on Aerosol Indirect Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gantt, B.; He, J.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Nenes, A.

    2013-12-01

    One of the greatest sources of uncertainty in climate science is the influence of aerosols on clouds through indirect effects, especially processes affecting the activation of aerosols into cloud droplets. Aerosol activation parameterizations incorporate much of the complexity of these processes, but the small differences between parameterizations can have a large impact on the spatiotemporal distribution of activated aerosols and the resulting cloud properties. Currently, most models simulate aerosol activation using the Abdul-Razzak and Ghan [2000] (AR-G00) scheme which derives an empiric calculation of the maximum parcel supersaturation based on the regression of numerical parcel calculations. The Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1.1 within the Community Earth Systems Model version 1.0.5 (CESM/CAM5) is an online-coupled Earth Systems model that simulates the interactions among aerosols, clouds, and radiation. CESM/CAM5 uses the AR-G00 scheme to simulate aerosol activation. In this work, we update CESM/CAM5 by incorporating a series of explicit aerosol activation schemes (Fountoukis and Nenes [2005]; Barahona and Nenes [2007]; Kumar et al. [2009]; and Barahona et al. [2010]) which account for the impacts of insoluble aerosol adsorption, giant cloud condensation nuclei activation kinetics, and entrainment on cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC). CESM/CAM5 results with the empiric and explicit aerosol activation schemes are evaluated against several global datasets including observed low-level CDNC and satellite-derived cloud optical thickness (COT), liquid water path (LWP), and shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF). Globally, the incorporation of all explicit schemes leads to an average increase in column CDNC of 155%, increase (more negative) in SWCF of 13%, and decrease in surface shortwave radiation of -4%. In terms of climate impacts, these schemes result in an annual mean decrease in surface temperature and precipitation of -0.9 K (~0.2%) and -0.04 mm day

  6. A SEASONAL INFLUENZA THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL INCORPORATING METEOROLOGICAL AND SOCIO- BEHAVIORAL FACTORS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhixiang ZHOU

    2009-01-01

    On the basis of a comprehensive literature review and data analysis of global influenza surveillance,a transmission theory based numerical model is developed to understand the causative factors of influenza seasonality and the biodynamical mechanisms of seasonal flu. The model is applied to simulate the seasonality and weekly activity of influenza in different areas across all continents and climate zones around the world. Model solution and the good matches between model output and actual influenza indexes affirm that influenza activity is highly auto-correlative and relies on determinants of a broad spectrum. Internal dynamic resonance; variations of meteorological elements (solar radiation,precipitation and dewpoint); socio-behavioral influences and herd immunity to circulating strains prove to be the critical explanatory thctors of the seasonality and weekly activity of influenza. In all climate regions,influenza activity is proportional to the exponential of the number of days with precipitation and to the negative exponential of quarter power of sunny hours. Influenza activity is a negative exponential function of dewpoint in temperate and arctic regions and an exponential function of the absolute deviation of dewpoint from its annual mean in the tropics. Epidemics of seasonal influenza could be deemed as the consequence of the dynamic resonance and interactions of determinants. Early interventions (such as opportune vaccination,prompt social distancing,and maintaining incidence well below a baseline) are key to the control and prevention of seasonal influenza. Moderate amount of sunlight exposure or Vitamin D supplementation during rainy and short-day photoperiod seasons,more outdoor activities,and appropriate indoor dewpoint deserve great attention in influenza prevention. To a considerable degree,the study reveals the mechanism of inlluenza seasonality,demonstrating a potential for influenza activity projection. The concept and algorithm can be explored

  7. Finite Element Surface Registration Incorporating Curvature, Volume Preservation, and Statistical Model Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Albrecht

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel method for nonrigid registration of 3D surfaces and images. The method can be used to register surfaces by means of their distance images, or to register medical images directly. It is formulated as a minimization problem of a sum of several terms representing the desired properties of a registration result: smoothness, volume preservation, matching of the surface, its curvature, and possible other feature images, as well as consistency with previous registration results of similar objects, represented by a statistical deformation model. While most of these concepts are already known, we present a coherent continuous formulation of these constraints, including the statistical deformation model. This continuous formulation renders the registration method independent of its discretization. The finite element discretization we present is, while independent of the registration functional, the second main contribution of this paper. The local discontinuous Galerkin method has not previously been used in image registration, and it provides an efficient and general framework to discretize each of the terms of our functional. Computational efficiency and modest memory consumption are achieved thanks to parallelization and locally adaptive mesh refinement. This allows for the first time the use of otherwise prohibitively large 3D statistical deformation models.

  8. Incorporating microbial ecology into the metabolic modelling of polyphosphate accumulating organisms and glycogen accumulating organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oehmen, A; Carvalho, G; Lopez-Vazquez, C M; van Loosdrecht, M C M; Reis, M A M

    2010-09-01

    In the enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) process, the competition between polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAO) and glycogen accumulating organisms (GAO) has been studied intensively in recent years by both microbiologists and engineers, due to its important effects on phosphorus removal performance and efficiency. This study addresses the impact of microbial ecology on assessing the PAO-GAO competition through metabolic modelling, focussing on reviewing recent developments, discussion of how the results from molecular studies can impact the way we model the process, and offering perspectives for future research opportunities based on unanswered questions concerning PAO and GAO metabolism. Indeed, numerous findings that are seemingly contradictory could in fact be explained by the metabolic behaviour of different sub-groups of PAOs and/or GAOs exposed to different environmental and operational conditions. Some examples include the glycolysis pathway (i.e. Embden-Meyerhof-Parnas (EMP) vs. Entner-Doudoroff (ED)), denitrification capacity, anaerobic tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle activity and PAOs' ability to adjust their metabolism to e.g. a GAO-like metabolism. Metabolic modelling may further yield far-reaching influences on practical applications as well, and serves as a bridge between molecular/biochemical research studies and the optimisation of wastewater treatment plant operation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Incorporating temporal heterogeneity in environmental conditions into a somatic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh; Yard, Michael D.; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.

    2017-01-01

    Evaluating environmental effects on fish growth can be challenging because environmental conditions may vary at relatively fine temporal scales compared to sampling occasions. Here we develop a Bayesian state-space growth model to evaluate effects of monthly environmental data on growth of fish that are observed less frequently (e.g., from mark-recapture data where time between captures can range from months to years). We assess effects of temperature, turbidity duration, food availability, flow variability, and trout abundance on subadult humpback chub (Gila cypha) growth in two rivers, the Colorado River (CR) and the Little Colorado River (LCR), and we use out-of-sample prediction to rank competing models. Environmental covariates explained a high proportion of the variation in growth in both rivers; however, the best growth models were river-specific and included either positive temperature and turbidity duration effects (CR) or positive temperature and food availability effects (LCR). Our approach to analyzing environmental controls on growth should be applicable in other systems where environmental data vary over relatively short time scales compared to animal observations.

  10. A rat experimental model of glaucoma incorporating rapid-onset elevation of intraocular pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smedowski, Adrian; Pietrucha-Dutczak, Marita; Kaarniranta, Kai; Lewin-Kowalik, Joanna

    2014-01-01

    Glaucoma is a chronic disease that causes structural and functional damage to retinal ganglion cells (RGC). The currently employed therapeutic options are not sufficient to prevent vision loss in patients with glaucoma; therefore, there is a need to develop novel therapies, which requires the creation of functional, repeatable and easy-to-utilize animal models for use in pre-clinical studies. The currently available models ensure only low to moderate damage in optic nerves, with high variation in the outcomes and poor repeatability. We have developed an effective and reproducible rat glaucoma model based on a previous idea for a “Bead Model” in mice, which could be useful in future glaucoma research. Additionally, in an attempt to achieve rapid elevation of Intraocular Pressure (IOP), we included an initial “high-pressure injury” as part of this method, which serves as the equivalent of a severe glaucoma attack. These modifications made it possible to achieve longer lasting IOP elevation with chronic damage of retinal ganglion cells. PMID:25081302

  11. A Partition-Based Active Contour Model Incorporating Local Information for Image Segmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiao Shi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Active contour models are always designed on the assumption that images are approximated by regions with piecewise-constant intensities. This assumption, however, cannot be satisfied when describing intensity inhomogeneous images which frequently occur in real world images and induced considerable difficulties in image segmentation. A milder assumption that the image is statistically homogeneous within different local regions may better suit real world images. By taking local image information into consideration, an enhanced active contour model is proposed to overcome difficulties caused by intensity inhomogeneity. In addition, according to curve evolution theory, only the region near contour boundaries is supposed to be evolved in each iteration. We try to detect the regions near contour boundaries adaptively for satisfying the requirement of curve evolution theory. In the proposed method, pixels within a selected region near contour boundaries have the opportunity to be updated in each iteration, which enables the contour to be evolved gradually. Experimental results on synthetic and real world images demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model when dealing with intensity inhomogeneity images.

  12. A partition-based active contour model incorporating local information for image segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Jiao; Wu, Jiaji; Paul, Anand; Jiao, Licheng; Gong, Maoguo

    2014-01-01

    Active contour models are always designed on the assumption that images are approximated by regions with piecewise-constant intensities. This assumption, however, cannot be satisfied when describing intensity inhomogeneous images which frequently occur in real world images and induced considerable difficulties in image segmentation. A milder assumption that the image is statistically homogeneous within different local regions may better suit real world images. By taking local image information into consideration, an enhanced active contour model is proposed to overcome difficulties caused by intensity inhomogeneity. In addition, according to curve evolution theory, only the region near contour boundaries is supposed to be evolved in each iteration. We try to detect the regions near contour boundaries adaptively for satisfying the requirement of curve evolution theory. In the proposed method, pixels within a selected region near contour boundaries have the opportunity to be updated in each iteration, which enables the contour to be evolved gradually. Experimental results on synthetic and real world images demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model when dealing with intensity inhomogeneity images.

  13. Incorporating institutions and collective action into a sociohydrological model of flood resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, David J.; Sangwan, Nikhil; Sung, Kyungmin; Chen, Xi; Merwade, Venkatesh

    2017-02-01

    Stylized sociohydrological models have mainly used social memory aspects such as community awareness or sensitivity to connect hydrologic change and social response. However, social memory alone does not satisfactorily capture the details of how human behavior is translated into collective action for water resources governance. Nor is it the only social mechanism by which the two-way feedbacks of sociohydrology can be operationalized. This study contributes toward bridging of this gap by developing a sociohydrological model of a flood resilience that includes two additional components: (1) institutions for collective action, and (2) connections to an external economic system. Motivated by the case of community-managed flood protection systems (polders) in coastal Bangladesh, we use the model to understand critical general features that affect long-term resilience of human-flood systems. Our findings suggest that occasional adversity can enhance long-term resilience. Allowing some hydrological variability to enter into the polder can increase its adaptive capacity for resilience through the preservation of social norm for collective action. Further, there are potential trade-offs associated with optimization of flood resistance through structural measures. By reducing sensitivity to floods, the system may become more fragile under the double impact of floods and economic change.

  14. Information spreading on mobile communication networks: A new model that incorporates human behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Fei; Li, Sai-Ping; Liu, Chuang

    2017-03-01

    Recently, there is a growing interest in the modeling and simulation based on real social networks among researchers in multi-disciplines. Using an empirical social network constructed from the calling records of a Chinese mobile service provider, we here propose a new model to simulate the information spreading process. This model takes into account two important ingredients that exist in real human behaviors: information prevalence and preferential spreading. The fraction of informed nodes when the system reaches an asymptotically stable state is primarily determined by information prevalence, and the heterogeneity of link weights would slow down the information diffusion. Moreover, the sizes of blind clusters which consist of connected uninformed nodes show a power-law distribution, and these uninformed nodes correspond to a particular portion of nodes which are located at special positions in the network, namely at the edges of large clusters or inside the clusters connected through weak links. Since the simulations are performed on a real world network, the results should be useful in the understanding of the influences of social network structures and human behaviors on information propagation.

  15. Absorbed dose evaluation based on a computational voxel model incorporating distinct cerebral structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandao, Samia de Freitas; Trindade, Bruno; Campos, Tarcisio P.R. [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)]. E-mail: samiabrandao@gmail.com; bmtrindade@yahoo.com; campos@nuclear.ufmg.br

    2007-07-01

    Brain tumors are quite difficult to treat due to the collateral radiation damages produced on the patients. Despite of the improvements in the therapeutics protocols for this kind of tumor, involving surgery and radiotherapy, the failure rate is still extremely high. This fact occurs because tumors can not often be totally removed by surgery since it may produce some type of deficit in the cerebral functions. Radiotherapy is applied after the surgery, and both are palliative treatments. During radiotherapy the brain does not absorb the radiation dose in homogeneous way, because the various density and chemical composition of tissues involved. With the intention of evaluating better the harmful effects caused by radiotherapy it was developed an elaborated cerebral voxel model to be used in computational simulation of the irradiation protocols of brain tumors. This paper presents some structures function of the central nervous system and a detailed cerebral voxel model, created in the SISCODES program, considering meninges, cortex, gray matter, white matter, corpus callosum, limbic system, ventricles, hypophysis, cerebellum, brain stem and spinal cord. The irradiation protocol simulation was running in the MCNP5 code. The model was irradiated with photons beam whose spectrum simulates a linear accelerator of 6 MV. The dosimetric results were exported to SISCODES, which generated the isodose curves for the protocol. The percentage isodose curves in the brain are present in this paper. (author)

  16. A Mock Circulatory System Incorporating a Compliant 3D-Printed Anatomical Model to Investigate Pulmonary Hemodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoops, Paul G M; Biglino, Giovanni; Hughes, Alun D; Parker, Kim H; Xu, Linzhang; Schievano, Silvia; Torii, Ryo

    2017-07-01

    A realistic mock circulatory system (MCS) could be a valuable in vitro testbed to study human circulatory hemodynamics. The objective of this study was to design a MCS replicating the pulmonary arterial circulation, incorporating an anatomically representative arterial model suitable for testing clinically relevant scenarios. A second objective of the study was to ensure the system's compatibility with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for additional measurements. A latex pulmonary arterial model with two generations of bifurcations was manufactured starting from a 3D-printed mold reconstructed from patient data. The model was incorporated into a MCS for in vitro hydrodynamic measurements. The setup was tested under physiological pulsatile flow conditions and results were evaluated using wave intensity analysis (WIA) to investigate waves traveling in the arterial system. Increased pulmonary vascular resistance (IPVR) was simulated as an example of one pathological scenario. Flow split between right and left pulmonary artery was found to be realistic (54 and 46%, respectively). No substantial difference in pressure waveform was observed throughout the various generations of bifurcations. Based on WIA, three main waves were identified in the main pulmonary artery (MPA), that is, forward compression wave, backward compression wave, and forward expansion wave. For IPVR, a rise in mean pressure was recorded in the MPA, within the clinical range of pulmonary arterial hypertension. The feasibility of using the MCS in the MRI scanner was demonstrated with the MCS running 2 h consecutively while acquiring preliminary MRI data. This study shows the development and verification of a pulmonary MCS, including an anatomically correct, compliant latex phantom. The setup can be useful to explore a wide range of hemodynamic questions, including the development of patient- and pathology-specific models, considering the ease and low cost of producing rapid prototyping molds, and the

  17. Incorporation of Fuzzy Sets and Earned Value Management into a Cost-Time Trade-off Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Salari

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Time-cost trade-off (TCT problem is a well-known subject in the project scheduling contexts. None of previous studies in this area of research emphasize on the incorporation of the TCT problem into the started project’s performance in order to present a comprehensive model for scheduling and controlling the project in its whole life. The aim of this paper is to provide a novel control mechanism which includes scheduling the project prior to start date, monitoring the project’s performance through the execution, predicting future performance of the project, determining the necessity for re-scheduling, and providing an approach for re-scheduling of the project. In the proposed model, several options with specific time and cost have been considered for the initiation of each activity. These options make different paths for the construction of the project. Due to vagueness and imprecision presented in real case projects, the time and cost behavior for each option has been presumed as fuzzy numbers. Earned Value Management (EVM has been then utilized for measuring project performance and ultimately, statistical modeling has been also employed in predicting the future trend of EVM’s indices. The model has resulted in selection of the best path for implementation purpose among all available paths. Moreover, the proposed model provides the advantage of assessing the possibility of rescheduling process. An illustrative case has been studied to analyze the application of the proposed model .

  18. Incorporation of SemiSpan SuperSonic Transport (S4T) Aeroservoelastic Models into SAREC-ASV Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christhilf, David M.; Pototzky, Anthony S.; Stevens, William L.

    2010-01-01

    The Simulink-based Simulation Architecture for Evaluating Controls for Aerospace Vehicles (SAREC-ASV) was modified to incorporate linear models representing aeroservoelastic characteristics of the SemiSpan SuperSonic Transport (S4T) wind-tunnel model. The S4T planform is for a Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) design from the 1990s. The model has three control surfaces and is instrumented with accelerometers and strain gauges. Control laws developed for wind-tunnel testing for Ride Quality Enhancement, Gust Load Alleviation, and Flutter Suppression System functions were implemented in the simulation. The simulation models open- and closed-loop response to turbulence and to control excitation. It provides time histories for closed-loop stable conditions above the open-loop flutter boundary. The simulation is useful for assessing the potential impact of closed-loop control rate and position saturation. It also provides a means to assess fidelity of system identification procedures by providing time histories for a known plant model, with and without unmeasured turbulence as a disturbance. Sets of linear models representing different Mach number and dynamic pressure conditions were implemented as MATLAB Linear Time Invariant (LTI) objects. Configuration changes were implemented by selecting which LTI object to use in a Simulink template block. A limited comparison of simulation versus wind-tunnel results is shown.

  19. Modelling and analysis of an open-loop induction motor drive incorporating the effect of inverter dead-time

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Anirudh Guha; G Narayanan

    2016-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to study the influence of inverter dead-time on steady as well as dynamic operation of an open-loop induction motor drive fed from a voltage source inverter (VSI). Towards this goal, this paper presents a systematic derivation of a dynamic model for an inverter-fed induction motor, incorporating the effect of inverter dead-time, in the synchronously revolving dq reference frame. Simulation results based on this dynamic model bring out the impact of inverter dead-time on both the transient response and steady-state operation of the motor drive. For the purpose of steady-state analysis, the dynamic model of the motor drive is used to derive a steady-state model, which is found to be non-linear. The steady-state model shows that the impact of dead-time can be seen as an additional resistance in the stator circuit, whose value depends on the stator current. Towards precise evaluation of this dead-time equivalent resistance, an analytical expression is proposed for the same in terms of inverter dead-time, switching frequency, modulation index and load impedance. The notion of dead-time equivalent resistance is shown to simplify the solution of the non-linear steady-state model. The analytically evaluated steady-state solutions are validated through numerical simulations and experiments.

  20. Bayesian random effect models incorporating real-time weather and traffic data to investigate mountainous freeway hazardous factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Rongjie; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Ahmed, Mohamed

    2013-01-01

    Freeway crash occurrences are highly influenced by geometric characteristics, traffic status, weather conditions and drivers' behavior. For a mountainous freeway which suffers from adverse weather conditions, it is critical to incorporate real-time weather information and traffic data in the crash frequency study. In this paper, a Bayesian inference method was employed to model one year's crash data on I-70 in the state of Colorado. Real-time weather and traffic variables, along with geometric characteristics variables were evaluated in the models. Two scenarios were considered in this study, one seasonal and one crash type based case. For the methodology part, the Poisson model and two random effect models with a Bayesian inference method were employed and compared in this study. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was utilized as a comparison factor. The correlated random effect models outperformed the others. The results indicate that the weather condition variables, especially precipitation, play a key role in the crash occurrence models. The conclusions imply that different active traffic management strategies should be designed based on seasons, and single-vehicle crashes have different crash mechanism compared to multi-vehicle crashes.

  1. A 3-D probabilistic stability model incorporating the variability of root reinforcement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cislaghi, Alessio; Chiaradia, Enrico; Battista Bischetti, Gian

    2016-04-01

    Process-oriented models of hillslope stability have a great potentiality to improve spatially-distributed landslides hazard analyses. At the same time, they may have severe limitations and among them the variability and uncertainty of the parameters play a key role. In this context, the application of a probabilistic approach through Monte Carlo techniques can be the right practice to deal with the variability of each input parameter by considering a proper probability distribution. In forested areas an additional point must be taken into account: the reinforcement due to roots permeating the soil and its variability and uncertainty. While the probability distributions of geotechnical and hydrological parameters have been widely investigated, little is known concerning the variability and the spatial heterogeneity of root reinforcement. Moreover, there are still many difficulties in measuring and in evaluating such a variable. In our study we aim to: i) implement a robust procedure to evaluate the variability of root reinforcement as a probabilistic distribution, according to the stand characteristics of forests, such as the trees density, the average diameter at breast height, the minimum distance among trees, and (ii) combine a multidimensional process-oriented model with a Monte Carlo Simulation technique, to obtain a probability distribution of the Factor of Safety. The proposed approach has been applied to a small Alpine area, mainly covered by a coniferous forest and characterized by steep slopes and a high landslide hazard. The obtained results show a good reliability of the model according to the landslide inventory map. At the end, our findings contribute to improve the reliability of landslide hazard mapping in forested areas and help forests managers to evaluate different management scenarios.

  2. Incorporating the user perspective into a proposed model for assessing success of SHS implementations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Holtorf

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Modern energy can contribute to development in multiple ways while approximately 20% of world's populations do not yet have access to electricity. Solar Home Systems (SHSs consists of a PV module, a charge controller and a battery supply in the range of 100 Wh/d in Sunbelt countries. The question addressed in this paper is how SHS users approach success of their systems and how these user's views can be integrated in to an existing model of success. Information was obtained on the user's approach to their SHSs by participatory observation, interviews with users and by self-observation undertaken by the lead author while residing under SHS electricity supply conditions. It was found that success of SHSs from the users' point of view is related to the ability of these systems to reduce the burdens of supplying energy services to homesteads. SHSs can alleviate some energy supply burdens, and they can improve living conditions by enabling communication on multiple levels and by addressing convenience and safety concerns. However, SHSs do not contribute to the energy services which are indispensable for survival, nor to the thermal energy services required and desired in dwellings of Sunbelt countries. The elements of three of the four components of our previously proposed model of success have been verified and found to be appropriate, namely the user's self-set goals, their importance and SHSs' success factors. The locally appropriate, and scientifically satisfactory, measurement of the level of achievement of self-set goals, the fourth component of our model of success, remains an interesting area for future research.

  3. Eatwell Guide: modelling the dietary and cost implications of incorporating new sugar and fibre guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarborough, Peter; Cobiac, Linda; Owens, Paul; Parlesak, Alexandr; Sweeney, Kate; Rayner, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To model food group consumption and price of diet associated with achieving UK dietary recommendations while deviating as little as possible from the current UK diet, in order to support the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (now called the Eatwell Guide). Design Optimisation modelling, minimising an objective function of the difference between population mean modelled and current consumption of 125 food groups, and constraints of nutrient and food-based recommendations. Setting The UK. Population Adults aged 19 years and above from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008–2011. Main outcome measures Proportion of diet consisting of major foods groups and price of the optimised diet. Results The optimised diet has an increase in consumption of ‘potatoes, bread, rice, pasta and other starchy carbohydrates’ (+69%) and ‘fruit and vegetables’ (+54%) and reductions in consumption of ‘beans, pulses, fish, eggs, meat and other proteins’ (−24%), ‘dairy and alternatives’ (−21%) and ‘foods high in fat and sugar’ (−53%). Results within food groups show considerable variety (eg, +90% for beans and pulses, −78% for red meat). The modelled diet would cost £5.99 (£5.93 to £6.05) per adult per day, very similar to the cost of the current diet: £6.02 (£5.96 to £6.08). The optimised diet would result in increased consumption of n-3 fatty acids and most micronutrients (including iron and folate), but decreased consumption of zinc and small decreases in consumption of calcium and riboflavin. Conclusions To achieve the UK dietary recommendations would require large changes in the average diet of UK adults, including in food groups where current average consumption is well within the recommended range (eg, processed meat) or where there are no current recommendations (eg, dairy). These large changes in the diet will not lead to significant changes in the price of the diet. PMID:28003292

  4. Approximate solution of a model of biological immune responses incorporating delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, A C

    1981-01-01

    A model of the humoral immune response, proposed by Dibrov, Livshits and Volkenstein (1977b), in which the antibody production by a constant target cell population depends on the antigenic stimulation at earlier times, is considered from an analytic standpoint. A method of approximation based on a consideration of the asymptotic limit of "large" delay in the antibody response is shown to be applicable, and to give results similar to those obtained numerically by the above authors. The relevance of this type of approximation to other systems exhibiting "outbreak" phenomena is discussed.

  5. Two-site adsolubilization model of incorporation of fluoromonomers into fluorosurfactants formed on cotton fabric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanumansetty, Srinivas; O'Rear, Edgar

    2014-04-01

    The adsorption of surfactants and adsolubilization of organic compounds on knit cotton fabric are fundamentally important in admicellar polymerization to impart characteristics like water repellency, stain resistance, and flame retardancy. The main objective of this research is to study adsorption and adsolubilization of fluororsurfactants and fluoromonomers used to obtain water repellency characteristics. Adsorption of nonionic (fluoroaliphatic amine oxide) and cationic (fluoroaliphatic quaternary ammonium surfactant) fluororsurfactants at the interface of cotton is investigated with and without fluoroacrylate monomers. A two-site adsolubilization model was used to predict the aggregation number of fluorosurfactant.

  6. Decrease in endogenous brain allopregnanolone induces autism spectrum disorder (ASD)-like behavior in mice: A novel animal model of ASD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebihara, Ken; Fujiwara, Hironori; Awale, Suresh; Dibwe, Dya Fita; Araki, Ryota; Yabe, Takeshi; Matsumoto, Kinzo

    2017-09-15

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder with core symptoms of social impairments and restrictive repetitive behaviors. Recent evidence has implicated a dysfunction in the GABAergic system in the pathophysiology of ASD. We investigated the role of endogenous allopregnanolone (ALLO), a neurosteroidal positive allosteric modulator of GABAA receptors, in the regulation of ASD-like behavior in male mice using SKF105111 (SKF), an inhibitor of type I and type II 5α-reductase, a rate-limiting enzyme of ALLO biosynthesis. SKF impaired sociability-related performance, as analyzed by three different tests; i.e., the 3-chamber test and social interaction in the open field and resident-intruder tests, without affecting olfactory function elucidated by the buried food test. SKF also induced repetitive grooming behavior without affecting anxiety-like behavior. SKF had no effect on short-term spatial working memory or long-term fear memory, but enhanced latent learning ability in male mice. SKF-induced ASD-like behavior in male mice was abolished by the systemic administration of ALLO (1mg/kg, i.p.) and methylphenidate (MPH: 2.5mg/kg, i.p.), a dopamine transporter inhibitor. The effects of SKF on brain ALLO contents in male mice were reversed by ALLO, but not MPH. On the other hand, SKF failed to induce ASD-like behavior or a decline in brain ALLO contents in female mice. These results suggest that ALLO regulates episodes of ASD-like behavior by positively modulating the function of GABAA receptors linked to the dopaminergic system. Moreover, a sex-dependently induced decrease in brain ALLO contents may provide an animal model to study the main features of ASD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. An expanded Notch-Delta model exhibiting long-range patterning and incorporating MicroRNA regulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry S Chen

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Notch-Delta signaling is a fundamental cell-cell communication mechanism that governs the differentiation of many cell types. Most existing mathematical models of Notch-Delta signaling are based on a feedback loop between Notch and Delta leading to lateral inhibition of neighboring cells. These models result in a checkerboard spatial pattern whereby adjacent cells express opposing levels of Notch and Delta, leading to alternate cell fates. However, a growing body of biological evidence suggests that Notch-Delta signaling produces other patterns that are not checkerboard, and therefore a new model is needed. Here, we present an expanded Notch-Delta model that builds upon previous models, adding a local Notch activity gradient, which affects long-range patterning, and the activity of a regulatory microRNA. This model is motivated by our experiments in the ascidian Ciona intestinalis showing that the peripheral sensory neurons, whose specification is in part regulated by the coordinate activity of Notch-Delta signaling and the microRNA miR-124, exhibit a sparse spatial pattern whereby consecutive neurons may be spaced over a dozen cells apart. We perform rigorous stability and bifurcation analyses, and demonstrate that our model is able to accurately explain and reproduce the neuronal pattern in Ciona. Using Monte Carlo simulations of our model along with miR-124 transgene over-expression assays, we demonstrate that the activity of miR-124 can be incorporated into the Notch decay rate parameter of our model. Finally, we motivate the general applicability of our model to Notch-Delta signaling in other animals by providing evidence that microRNAs regulate Notch-Delta signaling in analogous cell types in other organisms, and by discussing evidence in other organisms of sparse spatial patterns in tissues where Notch-Delta signaling is active.

  8. Quantifying the regional water footprint of biofuel production by incorporating hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, M.; Chiu, Y.; Demissie, Y.

    2012-10-01

    A spatially explicit life cycle water analysis framework is proposed, in which a standardized water footprint methodology is coupled with hydrologic modeling to assess blue water, green water (rainfall), and agricultural grey water discharge in the production of biofuel feedstock at county-level resolution. Grey water is simulated via SWAT, a watershed model. Evapotranspiration (ET) estimates generated with the Penman-Monteith equation and crop parameters were verified by using remote sensing results, a satellite-imagery-derived data set, and other field measurements. Crop irrigation survey data are used to corroborate the estimate of irrigation ET. An application of the concept is presented in a case study for corn-stover-based ethanol grown in Iowa (United States) within the Upper Mississippi River basin. Results show vast spatial variations in the water footprint of stover ethanol from county to county. Producing 1 L of ethanol from corn stover growing in the Iowa counties studied requires from 4.6 to 13.1 L of blue water (with an average of 5.4 L), a majority (86%) of which is consumed in the biorefinery. The county-level green water (rainfall) footprint ranges from 760 to 1000 L L-1. The grey water footprint varies considerably, ranging from 44 to 1579 L, a 35-fold difference, with a county average of 518 L. This framework can be a useful tool for watershed- or county-level biofuel sustainability metric analysis to address the heterogeneity of the water footprint for biofuels.

  9. A stage structured mosquito model incorporating effects of precipitation and daily temperature fluctuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xia; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A

    2016-12-21

    An outbreak of dengue fever in Guangdong province in 2014 was the most serious outbreak ever recorded in China. Given the known positive correlation between the abundance of mosquitoes and the number of dengue fever cases, a stage structured mosquito model was developed to investigate the cause of the large abundance of mosquitoes in 2014 and its implications for outbreaks of the disease. Data on the Breteau index (number of containers positive for larvae per 100 premises investigated), temperature and precipitation were used for model fitting. The egg laying rate, the development rate and the mortality rates of immatures and adults were obtained from the estimated parameters. Moreover, effects of daily fluctuations of temperature on these parameters were obtained and the effects of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by simulations. Our results indicated that the abundance of mosquitoes depended not only on the total annual precipitation but also on the distribution of the precipitation. The daily mean temperature had a nonlinear relationship with the abundance of mosquitoes, and large diurnal temperature differences can reduce the abundance of mosquitoes. In addition, effects of increasing precipitation and temperature were interdependent. Our findings suggest that the large abundance of mosquitoes in 2014 was mainly caused by the distribution of the precipitation. In the perspective of mosquito control, our results reveal that it is better to clear water early and spray insecticide between April and August in case of limited resources.

  10. INCORPORATING PRIOR BELIEF IN THE GENERAL PATH MODEL: A COMPARISON OF INFORMATION SOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JAMIE COBLE

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The general path model (GPM is one approach for performing degradation-based, or Type III, prognostics. The GPM fits a parametric function to the collected observations of a prognostic parameter and extrapolates the fit to a failure threshold. This approach has been successfully applied to a variety of systems when a sufficient number of prognostic parameter observations are available. However, the parametric fit can suffer significantly when few data are available or the data are very noisy. In these instances, it is beneficial to include additional information to influence the fit to conform to a prior belief about the evolution of system degradation. Bayesian statistical approaches have been proposed to include prior information in the form of distributions of expected model parameters. This requires a number of run-to-failure cases with tracked prognostic parameters; these data may not be readily available for many systems. Reliability information and stressor-based (Type I and Type II, respectively prognostic estimates can provide the necessary prior belief for the GPM. This article presents the Bayesian updating framework to include prior information in the GPM and compares the efficacy of including different information sources on two data sets.

  11. On the tectonics and metallogenesis of West Africa: a model incorporating new geophysical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, David A.

    1982-01-01

    The gold, diamond and manganese deposits of Ghana have attracted commercial interest, but appropriate geophysical data to delineate the tectonic setting of these and other deposits have been lacking until recently. Recent gravity surveys, however, now cover about 75% of the country. When used in a synthesis of the sometimes contradictory existing theories about the geology and metallogenesis of West Africa, the available gravity, magnetic, and seismic data lead to a preliminary tectonic model that postulates rifting at the time of the (1800-2000 m.y. old) Eburnean orogeny and is consistent with the occurrences of mineral deposits in the region. In this model, diamond-bearing kimberlites formed during the commencement of rifting during the Eburnean orogenesis. Later emplacement of kimberlites was associated with the initiation of Mesozoic rifting of Gondwanaland. Primary gold vein deposits were probably formed by the migration of hydrothermal fluids (associated with the formation of granitoids) into dilatant zones, such as rift-related faults and anticlinal axial areas, toward the end of the Eburnean orogeny. At this time, the major concordant granitoids were formed, with smaller plutonic granitoids forming on the fringes of the concordant masses as partial melting fractions of the latter. Sedimentary manganese deposits were formed along the margins of rift lakes toward the end of the orogeny.

  12. Endogenous versus Exogenous Origins of Crises

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, D

    2004-01-01

    Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or the result of a well orchestrated advertisement? Determining the chain of causality for extreme events in complex systems requires disentangling interwoven exogenous and endogenous contributions with either no clear or too many signatures. Here, I review several efforts carried out with collaborators, which suggest a general strategy for understanding the organization of several complex systems under the dual effect of endogenous and exogenous fluctuations. The studied examples are: Internet download shocks, book sale shocks, social shocks, financial volatility shocks, and financial crashes. Simple models are offered to quantitatively relate the endogenous organization to the exogenous response of the system. Suggestions for applications of these ideas to many other systems ...

  13. Endogenous versus Exogenous Origins of Crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or the result of a well orchestrated advertisement? Determining the chain of causality for Xevents in complex systems requires disentangling interwoven exogenous and endogenous contributions with either no clear signature or too many signatures. Here, I review several efforts carried out with collaborators which suggest a general strategy for understanding the organizations of several complex systems under the dual effect of endogenous and exogenous fluctuations. The studied examples are: internet download shocks, book sale shocks, social shocks, financial volatility shocks, and financial crashes. Simple models are offered to quantitatively relate the endogenous organization to the exogenous response of the system. Suggestions for applications of these ideas to many other systems are offered.

  14. Effect of melatonin on endogenous circadian rhythm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Feng; WANG Min; ZANG Ling-he

    2008-01-01

    Objective To further authenticate the role of melatonin on endogenous biologic clock system. Methods Pinealectomized mice were used in the experiments, a series of circadian rhythm of physiology index, such as glucocorticoid, amino acid neurotransmitter, immune function, sensitivity of algesia and body temperature were measured. Results Effects of melatonin on endogenous circadian rhythm roughly appeared four forms: 1) The model of inherent rhythm was invariant, but midvalue was removed. 2) Pacing function: pinealectomy and melatonin administration changed amplitude of the circadian vibration of aspartate, peripheral blood WBC and serum hemolysin. 3) Phase of rhythm changed, such as the effects on percentage of lymphocyte and sensitivity of algesia. 4) No effect, the circadian rhythm of body temperature belong to this form Conclusions Melatonin has effects some circadian rhythm, and it can adjust endogenous inherent rhythm and make the rhythm keep step with environmental cycle. Melatonin may be a kind of Zeitgeber, Pineal gland might being a rhythm bearing organ to some circadian rhythm.

  15. Environmental tax reform and endogenous growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.A. de Mooij (Ruud); A.L. Bovenberg (Lans)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThis paper explores how an environmental tax reform impacts pollution, economic growth and welfare in an endogenous growth model with pre-existing tax distortions. We find that a shift in the tax mix away from output taxes towards pollution taxes may raise economic growth through two cha

  16. Environmental tax reform and endogenous growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bovenberg, A.L.; de Mooij, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    This paper explores the effects of an environmental tax reform on pollution, economic growth and welfare in an endogenous growth model with pre-existing tax distortions. We find that a shift in the tax mix away from output towards pollution may raise economic growth through two channels. The first c

  17. Immigration, Endogenous Technology Adoption and Wages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ray Chaudhuri, A.; Pandey, Manish

    2015-01-01

    We document that immigration to U.S. states has increased the mass of workers at the lower range of the skill distribution. We use this change in skill distribution of workers to analyze the effect of immigration on wages. Our model allows firms to endogenously respond to the immigration-induced cha

  18. A Simple Biomineralization Model to Explain Li, Mg, and Sr Incorporation into Aragonitic Foraminifera and Corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchitto, T. M.; Bryan, S. P.; Montagna, P.

    2011-12-01

    The relationships between growth temperature and individual metal/Ca ratios in biogenic aragonites may be fundamentally perturbed by at least two processes: Ca pumping and Rayleigh fractionation. We suggest that the ratio Li/Mg is insensitive to both processes. Theoretically this is because the two elements experience negligible leakage through the Ca pump and very low partitioning into aragonite, leading to relatively constant Li/Mg in the calcifying fluid. This behavior may be related to the small ionic radii of both elements compared to Ca. As a result, Li/Mg is well explained by the temperature dependence of Li and Mg partitioning into inorganic aragonite, lending promise to its utility as a paleothermometer. Coral Sr/Ca is shown to be consistent with this model if the Ca pump is leaky with respect to Sr.

  19. A Compliant Bistable Mechanism Design Incorporating Elastica Buckling Beam Theory and Pseudo-Rigid-Body Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sönmez, Ümit; Tutum, Cem Celal

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new compliant bistable mechanism design is introduced. The combined use of pseudo-rigid-body model (PRBM) and the Elastica buckling theory is presented for the first time to analyze the new design. This mechanism consists of the large deflecting straight beams, buckling beams......, and a slider. The kinematic analysis of this new mechanism is studied, using nonlinear Elastica buckling beam theory, the PRBM of a large deflecting cantilever beam, the vector loop closure equations, and numerically solving nonlinear algebraic equations. A design method of the bistable mechanism...... and the buckling Elastica solution for an original compliant mechanism kinematic analysis. New compliant mechanism designs are presented to highlight where such combined kinematic analysis is required....

  20. Teaching For Art Criticism: Incorporating Feldman’s Critical Analysis Learning Model In Students’ Studio Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maithreyi Subramaniam

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study adopted 30 first year graphic design students’ artwork, with critical analysis using Feldman’s model of art criticism. Data were analyzed quantitatively; descriptive statistical techniques were employed. The scores were viewed in the form of mean score and frequencies to determine students’ performances in their critical ability. Pearson Correlation Coefficient was used to find out the correlation between students’ studio practice and art critical ability scores. The findings showed most students performed slightly better than average in the critical analyses and performed best in selecting analysis among the four dimensions assessed. In the context of the students’ studio practice and critical ability, findings showed there are some connections between the students’ art critical ability and studio practice.

  1. A model for hydraulic redistribution incorporating coupled soil-root moisture transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Amenu

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the adaptive strategies of vegetation, particularly in water limited ecosystems, is the development of deep roots and the use of hydraulic redistribution which enables them to make optimal use of resources available throughout the soil column. Hydraulic redistribution refers to roots acting as a preferential pathway for the movement of water from wet to dry soil layers driven by the moisture gradient – be it from the shallow to deep layers or vice versa. This occurs during the nighttime while during the daytime moisture movement is driven to fulfill the transpiration demand at the canopy. In this study, we develop a model to investigate the effect of hydraulic redistribution by deep roots on the terrestrial climatology. Sierra Nevada eco-region is chosen as the study site which has wet winters and dry summers. Hydraulic redistribution enables the movement of moisture from the upper soil layers to deeper zones during the wet months and this moisture is then available to meet the transpiration demand during the late dry season. It results in significant alteration of the profiles of soil moisture and water uptake as well as increase in the canopy transpiration, carbon assimilation, and the associated water-use-efficiency during the dry summer season. This also makes the presence of roots in deeper soil layers much more important than their proportional abundance would otherwise dictate. Comparison with observations of latent heat from a flux tower demonstrates improved predictability and provides validation of the model results. Hydraulic redistribution serves as a mechanism for the interaction between the variability of deep layer soil-moisture and the land-surface climatology and could have significant implications for seasonal and sub-seasonal climate prediction.

  2. A model for hydraulic redistribution incorporating coupled soil-root moisture transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Amenu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the adaptive strategies of vegetation, particularly in water limited ecosystems, is the development of deep roots and the use of hydraulic redistribution which enables them to make optimal use of resources available throughout the soil column. Hydraulic redistribution refers to roots acting as a preferential pathway for the movement of water from wet to dry soil layers driven by the moisture gradient – be it from the shallow to deep layers or vice versa. This occurs during the nighttime while during the daytime moisture movement is driven to fulfill the transpiration demand at the canopy. In this study, we develop a model to investigate the effect of hydraulic redistribution by deep roots on the terrestrial climatology. Sierra Nevada eco-region is chosen as the study site which has wet winters and dry summers. Hydraulic redistribution enables the movement of moisture from the upper soil layers to deeper zones during the wet months and this moisture is then available to meet the transpiration demand during the late dry season. It results in significant alteration of the profiles of soil moisture and water uptake as well as increase in the canopy transpiration, carbon assimilation, and the associated water-use-efficiency during the dry summer season. This also makes the presence of roots in deeper soil layers much more important than their proportional abundance would otherwise dictate. Comparison with observations of latent heat from a flux tower demonstrates improved predictability and provides validation of the model results. Hydraulic redistribution serves as a mechanism for the interaction between the variability of deep layer soil-moisture and the land-surface climatology and could have significant implications for seasonal and sub-seasonal climate prediction.

  3. Cooperation Networks: Endogeneity and Complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Angus, S

    2006-01-01

    Insights from the Complex Systems literature are employed to develop a computational model of truly endogenous strategic network formation. Artificial Adaptive Agents, implemented as Finite State Automata (FSA), play a modified two-player IPD game with an option to further develop the interaction space as part of their strategy. Several insights result from this minor modification: first, I find that network formation is a necessary condition for cooperation to be sustainable but that both the frequency of interaction and the degree to which edge formation impacts agent mixing are both necessary conditions for cooperative networks. Second, within the FSA-modified IPD frame-work, a rich ecology of agents and network topologies is observed and described. Third, the system dynamics are investigated and reveal that initially simple dynamics with small interaction length between agents gives way to complex, a-periodic dynamics with self-organized critical properties when interaction lengths are increased by a sing...

  4. Using a Bayesian approach to estimate and compare new Keynesian DSGE models for the Brazilian economy: the role for endogenous persistence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Antonio C. da Silveira

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE models have been developed for monetary policy analysis in open economies. For this purpose, the basic model must be enriched with the sources of nominal and real rigidities which are capable of explaining the observed output and inflation persistence. Under this perspective, we use the Bayesian approach to estimate and compare alternative model specifications for the Brazilian economy with respect to two endogenous persistence mechanisms widely supported by the international empirical literature: habit formation and price indexation. Using data for the inflation target period, we conclude for the relevance of both mechanisms, although the evidence is unexpectly less robust for price indexation. Furthermore, impulse-response functions are built to describe the dynamic effects of domestic and foreign real and monetary shocks.Modelos de equilíbrio geral dinâmicos e estocásticos têm sido desenvolvidos para a análise de política monetária em economias abertas. Com este propósito, o modelo básico precisa ser enriquecido com as fontes de rigidez nominal e real que são capazes de explicar a persistência observada no produto e na inflação. Com esta perspectiva, a metodologia bayesiana é usada para estimar e comparar alternativas especificações de modelos para a economia brasileira no tocante a dois mecanismos endógenos de persistência amplamente postulados pela literatura empírica internacional: formação de hábito e indexação de preços. Usando dados do período de metas de inflação, nossa conclusão é pela relevância de ambos os mecanismos, embora a evidência seja inesperadamente menos robusta para indexação de preços. Além disso, funções impulsoresposta são construídas para descrever os efeitos dinâmicos de choques estruturais domésticos e externos, reais e monetários.

  5. 社会资本、资本替代与内生经济增长模型%Social Capital、Capital Substitution and Endogenous Growth Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    闫庆友; 汤新发

    2013-01-01

    Different from previous research , by putting social capital into the production function and social wel-fare function , this paper constructs a four sector endogenous economic growth model .Straightening out the eco-nomic relationship of the natural capital , social capital , human capital and man-made capital , the internal mech-anism to realize economic growth are analyzed .The model proved that the substitute of social capital to natural capital, so we can add social capital and cut down natural capital at the same time , while keeping the long eco-nomic growth .The model explained the contribution of the social capital to the long term economic development , combining with the current economic situation in our country .To maintain a reasonable growth and make good use of social capital , some specific policies are suggested in view of the resource reserves of our country , which is theoretical significance to our country as adjusting industrial structure and building innovation society to realize the sustainable development .%与以往国内相关研究不同,本文首次把社会资本引入生产函数和福利函数,构造了一个四部门内生经济增长模型并运用动态最优化方法求解。模型解释了社会资本、人力资本、自然资本和人造资本之间的经济关系,阐明了实现经济稳态增长的内在机理。模型的求解结果表明社会资本对自然资本的替代作用,通过增加社会资本积累可以节约自然资本,实现稳态经济增长。文章还结合中国经济发展和自然资本储量现状,分析了当前中国经济发展过程中一些重要社会问题发生的原因,提出对社会资本实施高度开发并保持合理增长以实现国民经济长期增长的政策建议。这对我国调整产业结构建设创新型社会、实现可持续发展具有理论指导意义。

  6. A battery model that fully couples mechanics and electrochemistry at both particle and electrode levels by incorporation of particle interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bin; Lu, Wei

    2017-08-01

    This paper develops a multi-scale mechanical-electrochemical model which enables fully coupled mechanics and electrochemistry at both particle and electrode levels. At the particle level, solid diffusion is modeled using a generalized chemical potential to capture the effects of mechanical stress and phase transformation. At the electrode level, the stress arising from particle interaction is incorporated in a continuum model. This particle interaction stress is in addition to the traditional concept of intercalation stress inside isolated particles. The particle and continuum electrode levels are linked by the particle interaction stress as loads on the particle surface, and by consideration of stress on the electrochemical reaction rate on the particle surface. The effect of mechanical stress on electrochemical reaction results in a stress-dependent over-potential between particle and electrolyte. Stress gradient in an electrode leads to inhomogeneous intercalation/deintercalation currents for particles depending on their interaction stress with neighbors, resulting in stress gradient induced inhomogeneous state of charge. Conversely, non-uniform intercalation/deintercalation currents in an electrode lead to stress between particles. With this model we have an important finding: an electrochemically inactive region in an electrode causes stress built-up. This model provides a powerful tool to address various problems such as fracture in-between particles.

  7. Incorporating Groundwater Dynamics and Surface/Subsurface Runoff Mechanisms in Regional Climate Modeling over River Basins in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIN Peihua; XIE Zhenghui; YUAN Xing

    2013-01-01

    To improve the capability of numerical modeling of climate-groundwater interactions,a groundwater component and new surface/subsurface runoff schemes were incorporated into the regional climate model RegCM3,renamed RegCM3_Hydro.20-year simulations from both models were used to investigate the effects of groundwater dynamics and surface/subsurface runoff parameterizations on regional climate over seven river basins in China.A comparison of results shows that RegCM3_Hydro reduced the positive biases of annual and summer (June,July,August) precipitation over six river basins,while it slightly increased the bias over the Huaihe River Basin in eastern China.RegCM3_Hydro also reduced the cold bias of surface air temperature from RegCM3 across years,especially for the Haihe and the Huaihe river basins,with significant bias reductions of 0.80℃ and 0.88℃,respectively.The spatial distribution and seasonal variations of water table depth were also well captured.With the new surface and subsurface runoff schemes,RegCM3_Hydro increased annual surface runoff by 0.11-0.62 mm d-1 over the seven basins.Though previous studies found that incorporating a groundwater component tends to increase soil moisture due to the consideration of upward groundwater recharge,our present work shows that the modified runoff schemes cause less infiltration,which outweigh the recharge from groundwater and result in drier soil,and consequently cause less latent heat and more sensible heat over most of the basins.

  8. Incorporation of advanced aerosol activation treatments into CESM/CAM5: model evaluation and impacts on aerosol indirect effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gantt, B.; He, J.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Nenes, A.

    2014-07-01

    One of the greatest sources of uncertainty in the science of anthropogenic climate change is from aerosol-cloud interactions. The activation of aerosols into cloud droplets is a direct microphysical linkage between aerosols and clouds; parameterizations of this process link aerosol with cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the resulting indirect effects. Small differences between parameterizations can have a large impact on the spatiotemporal distributions of activated aerosols and the resulting cloud properties. In this work, we incorporate a series of aerosol activation schemes into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1.1 within the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CESM/CAM5) which include factors such as insoluble aerosol adsorption and giant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics to understand their individual impacts on global-scale cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Compared to the existing activation scheme in CESM/CAM5, this series of activation schemes increase the computation time by ~10% but leads to predicted CDNC in better agreement with satellite-derived/in situ values in many regions with high CDNC but in worse agreement for some regions with low CDNC. Large percentage changes in predicted CDNC occur over desert and oceanic regions, owing to the enhanced activation of dust from insoluble aerosol adsorption and reduced activation of sea spray aerosol after accounting for giant CCN activation kinetics. Comparison of CESM/CAM5 predictions against satellite-derived cloud optical thickness and liquid water path shows that the updated activation schemes generally improve the low biases. Globally, the incorporation of all updated schemes leads to an average increase in column CDNC of 150% and an increase (more negative) in shortwave cloud forcing of 12%. With the improvement of model-predicted CDNCs and better agreement with most satellite-derived cloud properties in many regions, the inclusion of these aerosol activation

  9. An innovative land use regression model incorporating meteorology for exposure analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jason G; Brauer, Michael; Ainslie, Bruce; Steyn, Douw; Larson, Timothy; Buzzelli, Michael

    2008-02-15

    The advent of spatial analysis and geographic information systems (GIS) has led to studies of chronic exposure and health effects based on the rationale that intra-urban variations in ambient air pollution concentrations are as great as inter-urban differences. Such studies typically rely on local spatial covariates (e.g., traffic, land use type) derived from circular areas (buffers) to predict concentrations/exposures at receptor sites, as a means of averaging the annual net effect of meteorological influences (i.e., wind speed, wind direction and insolation). This is the approach taken in the now popular land use regression (LUR) method. However spatial studies of chronic exposures and temporal studies of acute exposures have not been adequately integrated. This paper presents an innovative LUR method implemented in a GIS environment that reflects both temporal and spatial variability and considers the role of meteorology. The new source area LUR integrates wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover/insolation to estimate hourly nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentrations from land use types (i.e., road network, commercial land use) and these concentrations are then used as covariates to regress against NO and NO(2) measurements at various receptor sites across the Vancouver region and compared directly with estimates from a regular LUR. The results show that, when variability in seasonal concentration measurements is present, the source area LUR or SA-LUR model is a better option for concentration estimation.

  10. TOWARD MORE REALISTIC ANALYTIC MODELS OF THE HELIOTAIL: INCORPORATING MAGNETIC FLATTENING VIA DISTORTION FLOWS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleimann, Jens; Fichtner, Horst [Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Fakultät für Physik und Astronomie, Institut für Theoretische Physik IV, Bochum (Germany); Röken, Christian [Universität Regensburg, Fakultät für Mathematik, Regensburg (Germany); Heerikhuisen, Jacob, E-mail: jk@tp4.rub.de, E-mail: hf@tp4.rub.de, E-mail: christian.roeken@mathematik.uni-regensburg.de, E-mail: jacob.heerikhuisen@uah.edu [Department of Space Science and Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Both physical arguments and simulations of the global heliosphere indicate that the tailward heliopause is flattened considerably in the direction perpendicular to both the incoming flow and the large-scale interstellar magnetic field. Despite this fact, all of the existing global analytical models of the outer heliosheath's magnetic field assume a circular cross section of the heliotail. To eliminate this inconsistency, we introduce a mathematical procedure by which any analytically or numerically given magnetic field can be deformed in such a way that the cross sections along the heliotail axis attain freely prescribed, spatially dependent values for their total area and aspect ratio. The distorting transformation of this method honors both the solenoidality condition and the stationary induction equation with respect to an accompanying flow field, provided that both constraints were already satisfied for the original magnetic and flow fields prior to the transformation. In order to obtain realistic values for the above parameters, we present the first quantitative analysis of the heliotail's overall distortion as seen in state-of-the-art three-dimensional hybrid MHD–kinetic simulations.

  11. A heat transfer model for incorporating carbon foam fabrics in firefighter's garment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgafy, Ahmed; Mishra, Sarthak

    2014-04-01

    In the present work, a numerical study was performed to predict and investigate the performance of a thermal protection system for firefighter's garment consisting of carbon foam fabric in both the outer shell and the thermal liner elements. Several types of carbon foam with different thermal conductivity, porosity, and density were introduced to conduct a parametric study. Additionally, the thickness of the introduced carbon foam fabrics was varied to acquire optimum design. Simulation was conducted for a square planar 2D geometry of the clothing comprising of different fabric layers and a double precision pressure-based implicit solver, under transient state condition was used. The new anticipated thermal protection system was tested under harsh thermal environmental conditions that firefighters are exposed to. The parametric study showed that employing carbon foam fabric with one set of designed parameters, weight reduction of 33 % in the outer shell, 56 % in the thermal liner and a temperature reduction of 2 % at the inner edge of the garment was achieved when compared to the traditional firefighter garment model used by Song et al. (Int J Occup Saf Ergon 14:89-106, 2008). Also, carbon foam fabric with another set of designed parameters resulted in a weight reduction of 25 % in the outer shell, 28 % in the thermal liner and a temperature reduction of 6 % at the inner edge of the garment. As a result, carbon foam fabrics make the firefighter's garment more protective, durable, and lighter in weight.

  12. Modelling how incorporation of divalent cations affects calcite wettability–implications for biomineralisation and oil recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, M. P.; Dideriksen, K.; Sakuma, H.; Stipp, S. L. S.

    2016-06-01

    Using density functional theory and geochemical speciation modelling, we predicted how solid-fluid interfacial energy is changed, when divalent cations substitute into a calcite surface. The effect on wettability can be dramatic. Trace metal uptake can impact organic compound adsorption, with effects for example, on the ability of organisms to control crystal growth and our ability to predict the wettability of pore surfaces. Wettability influences how easily an organic phase can be removed from a surface, either organic compounds from contaminated soil or crude oil from a reservoir. In our simulations, transition metals substituted exothermically into calcite and more favourably into sites at the surface than in the bulk, meaning that surface properties are more strongly affected than results from bulk experiments imply. As a result of divalent cation substitution, calcite-fluid interfacial energy is significantly altered, enough to change macroscopic contact angle by tens of degrees. Substitution of Sr, Ba and Pb makes surfaces more hydrophobic. With substitution of Mg and the transition metals, calcite becomes more hydrophilic, weakening organic compound adsorption. For biomineralisation, this provides a switch for turning on and off the activity of organic crystal growth inhibitors, thereby controlling the shape of the associated mineral phase.

  13. Searching for the true diet of marine predators: incorporating Bayesian priors into stable isotope mixing models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Chiaradia

    Full Text Available Reconstructing the diet of top marine predators is of great significance in several key areas of applied ecology, requiring accurate estimation of their true diet. However, from conventional stomach content analysis to recent stable isotope and DNA analyses, no one method is bias or error free. Here, we evaluated the accuracy of recent methods to estimate the actual proportion of a controlled diet fed to a top-predator seabird, the Little penguin (Eudyptula minor. We combined published DNA data of penguins scats with blood plasma δ(15N and δ(13C values to reconstruct the diet of individual penguins fed experimentally. Mismatch between controlled (true ingested diet and dietary estimates obtained through the separately use of stable isotope and DNA data suggested some degree of differences in prey assimilation (stable isotope and digestion rates (DNA analysis. In contrast, combined posterior isotope mixing model with DNA Bayesian priors provided the closest match to the true diet. We provided the first evidence suggesting that the combined use of these complementary techniques may provide better estimates of the actual diet of top marine predators- a powerful tool in applied ecology in the search for the true consumed diet.

  14. Incorporating the gut microbiota into models of human and non-human primate ecology and evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Katherine R

    2016-01-01

    The mammalian gut is home to a diverse community of microbes. Advances in technology over the past two decades have allowed us to examine this community, the gut microbiota, in more detail, revealing a wide range of influences on host nutrition, health, and behavior. These host-gut microbe interactions appear to shape host plasticity and fitness in a variety of contexts, and therefore represent a key factor missing from existing models of human and non-human primate ecology and evolution. However, current studies of the gut microbiota tend to include limited contextual data or are clinical, making it difficult to directly test broad anthropological hypotheses. Here, I review what is known about the animal gut microbiota and provide examples of how gut microbiota research can be integrated into the study of human and non-human primate ecology and evolution with targeted data collection. Specifically, I examine how the gut microbiota may impact primate diet, energetics, disease resistance, and cognition. While gut microbiota research is proliferating rapidly, especially in the context of humans, there remain important gaps in our understanding of host-gut microbe interactions that will require an anthropological perspective to fill. Likewise, gut microbiota research will be an important tool for filling remaining gaps in anthropological research.

  15. Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Ellsworth, William L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Holland, Austin A.; Anderson, John G.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of exceedance for earthquake ground shaking (ground motion). For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model assessment, the seismic hazard from potentially induced earthquakes was intentionally not considered because we had not determined how to properly treat these earthquakes for the seismic hazard analysis. The phrases “potentially induced” and “induced” are used interchangeably in this report, however it is acknowledged that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model update, the potentially induced earthquakes were removed from the NSHM’s earthquake catalog, and the documentation states that we would consider alternative models for including induced seismicity in a future version of the National Seismic Hazard Model. As part of the process of incorporating induced seismicity into the seismic hazard model, we evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard from induced seismicity to five parts of the hazard model: (1) the earthquake catalog, (2) earthquake rates, (3) earthquake locations, (4) earthquake Mmax (maximum magnitude), and (5) earthquake ground motions. We describe alternative input models for each of the five parts that represent differences in scientific opinions on induced seismicity characteristics. In this report, however, we do not weight these input models to come up with a preferred final model. Instead, we present a sensitivity study showing uniform seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the alternative input models for induced seismicity. The final model will be released after

  16. Development of Advanced Continuum Models that Incorporate Nanomechanical Deformation into Engineering Analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zimmerman, Jonathan A.; Jones, Reese E.; Templeton, Jeremy Alan; McDowell, David L.; Mayeur, Jason R.; Tucker, Garritt J.; Bammann, Douglas J.; Gao, Huajian

    2008-09-01

    Materials with characteristic structures at nanoscale sizes exhibit significantly different mechani-cal responses from those predicted by conventional, macroscopic continuum theory. For example,nanocrystalline metals display an inverse Hall-Petch effect whereby the strength of the materialdecreases with decreasing grain size. The origin of this effect is believed to be a change in defor-mation mechanisms from dislocation motion across grains and pileup at grain boundaries at mi-croscopic grain sizes to rotation of grains and deformation within grain boundary interface regionsfor nanostructured materials. These rotational defects are represented by the mathematical conceptof disclinations. The ability to capture these effects within continuum theory, thereby connectingnanoscale materials phenomena and macroscale behavior, has eluded the research community.The goal of our project was to develop a consistent theory to model both the evolution ofdisclinations and their kinetics. Additionally, we sought to develop approaches to extract contin-uum mechanical information from nanoscale structure to verify any developed continuum theorythat includes dislocation and disclination behavior. These approaches yield engineering-scale ex-pressions to quantify elastic and inelastic deformation in all varieties of materials, even those thatpossess highly directional bonding within their molecular structures such as liquid crystals, cova-lent ceramics, polymers and biological materials. This level of accuracy is critical for engineeringdesign and thermo-mechanical analysis is performed in micro- and nanosystems. The researchproposed here innovates on how these nanoscale deformation mechanisms should be incorporatedinto a continuum mechanical formulation, and provides the foundation upon which to develop ameans for predicting the performance of advanced engineering materials.4 AcknowledgmentThe authors acknowledge helpful discussions with Farid F. Abraham, Youping Chen, Terry J

  17. Incorporating transportation network modeling tools within transportation economic impact studies of disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Wen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Transportation system disruption due to a disaster results in "ripple effects" throughout the entire transportation system of a metropolitan region. Many researchers have focused on the economic costs of transportation system disruptions in transportation-related industries, specifïcally within commerce and logistics, in the assessment of the regional economic costs. However, the foundation of an assessment of the regional economic costs of a disaster needs to include the evaluation of consumer surplus in addition to the direct cost for reconstruction of the regional transportation system. The objective of this study is to propose a method to estimate the regional consumer surplus based on indirect economic costs of a disaster on intermodal transportation systems in the context of diverting vehicles and trains. The computational methods used to assess the regional indirect economic costs sustained by the highway and railroad system can utilize readily available state departments of transportation (DOTs and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs traffic models allowing prioritization of regional recovery plans after a disaster and strengthening of infrastructure before a disaster. Hurricane Katrina is one of the most devastating hurricanes in the history of the United States. Due to the significance of Hurricane Katrina, a case study is presented to evaluate consumer surplus in the Gulf Coast Region of Mississippi. Results from the case study indicate the costs of rerouting and congestion delays in the regional highway system and the rent costs of right-of-way in the regional railroad system are major factors of the indirect costs in the consumer surplus.

  18. Image quality analysis of high-density diffuse optical tomography incorporating a subject-specific head model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuxuan eZhan

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available High-density diffuse optical tomography (HD-DOT methods have shown significant improvement in localization accuracy and image resolution compared to traditional topographic near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS of the human brain. In this work we provide a comprehensive evaluation of image quality in visual cortex mapping via a simulation study with the use of an anatomical head model derived from MRI data of a human subject. A model of individual head anatomy provides the surface shape and internal structure that allow for the construction of a more realistic physical model for the forward problem, as well as the use of a structural constraint in the inverse problem. The HD-DOT model utilized here incorporates multiple source-detector separations with continuous-wave data with added noise based on experimental results. To evaluate image quality we quantify the localization error and localized volume at half maximum (LVHM throughout a region of interest (ROI within the visual cortex and systematically analyze the use of whole brain tissue spatial constraint within image reconstruction. Our results demonstrate that an image quality with less than 10 mm in localization error and 1000 m3 in LVHM can be obtained up to 13 mm below the scalp surface with a typical unconstrained reconstruction and up to 18 mm deep when a spatial constraint based on the brain tissue is utilized.

  19. Photocatalytic degradation and reactor modeling of 17α-ethynylestradiol employing titanium dioxide-incorporated foam concrete.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuming; Li, Yi; Zhang, Wenlong; Wang, Qing; Wang, Dawei

    2015-03-01

    Photocatalytic degradation of 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2) using TiO2 photocatalysts incorporated with foam concrete (TiO2/FC) was investigated for the first time. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) study of the samples revealed a narrow air void size distribution on the surface of FC cubes on with 5 wt% addition of P25 TiO2, and TiO2 particles were distributed heterogeneously on the surface of TiO2/FC samples. The sorption and photocatalytic degradation of EE2 with UV-light irradiation by TiO2/FC cubes were investigated. Adsorption capacity of EE2 by the TiO2/FC and blank foam concrete (FC) samples were similar, while the degradation rates showed a great difference. More than 50 % of EE2 was removed by TiO2/FC within 3.5 h, compared with 5 % by blank FC. The EE2 removal process was then studied in a photoreactor modified from ultraviolet disinfection pool and constructed with TiO2/FC materials. An integrated model including a plate adsorption-scattering model and a modified flow diffusion model was established to simulate the photocatalytic degradation process with different radiation fields, contaminant load, and flow velocity. A satisfactory agreement was observed between the model simulations and experimental results, showing a potential for the design and scale-up of the modified photocatalytic reactor.

  20. Global Hopf bifurcation analysis of an susceptible-infective-removed epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Huitao; Zhao, Miaochan

    2017-12-01

    An susceptible-infective-removed epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay is proposed. The stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is studied. And then, the conditions which guarantee the existence of local Hopf bifurcation are given. Furthermore, we show that the local Hopf bifurcation implies the global Hopf bifurcation after the second critical value of delay. The obtained results show that the time delay in media coverage can not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. However, the time delay affects the stability of the endemic equilibrium and produces limit cycle oscillations while the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Finally, some examples for numerical simulations are included to support the theoretical prediction.