WorldWideScience

Sample records for model incorporates typical

  1. Modelling object typicality in description logics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Britz, K

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a semantic model of typicality of concept members in description logics (DLs) that accords well with a binary, globalist cognitive model of class membership and typicality. The authors define a general preferential semantic...

  2. Modelling object typicality in description logics - [Workshop on Description Logics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Britz, K

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors presents a semantic model of typicality of concept members in description logics that accords well with a binary, globalist cognitive model of class membership and typicality. The authors define a general preferential semantic framework...

  3. Typical NRC inspection procedures for model plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaylock, J.

    1984-01-01

    A summary of NRC inspection procedures for a model LEU fuel fabrication plant is presented. Procedures and methods for combining inventory data, seals, measurement techniques, and statistical analysis are emphasized

  4. Potential effects of incorporating fertility control into typical culling regimes in wild pig populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Amy J.; Cunningham, Fred L.; VerCauteren, Kurt C.; Eckery, Doug C.

    2017-01-01

    Effective management of widespread invasive species such as wild pigs (Sus scrofa) is limited by resources available to devote to the effort. Better insight of the effectiveness of different management strategies on population dynamics is important for guiding decisions of resource allocation over space and time. Using a dynamic population model, we quantified effects of culling intensities and time between culling events on population dynamics of wild pigs in the USA using empirical culling patterns and data-based demographic parameters. In simulated populations closed to immigration, substantial population declines (50–100%) occurred within 4 years when 20–60% of the population was culled annually, but when immigration from surrounding areas occurred, there was a maximum of 50% reduction, even with the maximum culling intensity of 60%. Incorporating hypothetical levels of fertility control with realistic culling intensities was most effective in reducing populations when they were closed to immigration and when intrinsic population growth rate was too high (> = 1.78) to be controlled by culling alone. However, substantial benefits from fertility control used in conjunction with culling may only occur over a narrow range of net population growth rates (i.e., where net is the result of intrinsic growth rates and culling) that varies depending on intrinsic population growth rate. The management implications are that the decision to use fertility control in conjunction with culling should rely on concurrent consideration of achievable culling intensity, underlying demographic parameters, and costs of culling and fertility control. The addition of fertility control reduced abundance substantially more than culling alone, however the effects of fertility control were weaker than in populations without immigration. Because these populations were not being reduced substantially by culling alone, fertility control could be an especially helpful enhancement to culling

  5. Incorporating model uncertainty into optimal insurance contract design

    OpenAIRE

    Pflug, G.; Timonina-Farkas, A.; Hochrainer-Stigler, S.

    2017-01-01

    In stochastic optimization models, the optimal solution heavily depends on the selected probability model for the scenarios. However, the scenario models are typically chosen on the basis of statistical estimates and are therefore subject to model error. We demonstrate here how the model uncertainty can be incorporated into the decision making process. We use a nonparametric approach for quantifying the model uncertainty and a minimax setup to find model-robust solutions. The method is illust...

  6. Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-20

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0258 Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models Eunice Santos UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT EL PASO 500 UNIV ST ADMIN BLDG...REPORT TYPE Final Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 3/1/13-12/31/14 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models 5a...AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT We propose an overarching framework designed to incorporate various aspects of social resilience

  7. Incorporating groundwater flow into the WEPP model

    Science.gov (United States)

    William Elliot; Erin Brooks; Tim Link; Sue Miller

    2010-01-01

    The water erosion prediction project (WEPP) model is a physically-based hydrology and erosion model. In recent years, the hydrology prediction within the model has been improved for forest watershed modeling by incorporating shallow lateral flow into watershed runoff prediction. This has greatly improved WEPP's hydrologic performance on small watersheds with...

  8. Analysis and Comparison of Typical Models within Distribution Network Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Hans Jacob; Larsen, Allan; Madsen, Oli B.G.

    This paper investigates the characteristics of typical optimisation models within Distribution Network Design. During the paper fourteen models known from the literature will be thoroughly analysed. Through this analysis a schematic approach to categorisation of distribution network design models...... for educational purposes. Furthermore, the paper can be seen as a practical introduction to network design modelling as well as a being an art manual or recipe when constructing such a model....... are covered in the categorisation include fixed vs. general networks, specialised vs. general nodes, linear vs. nonlinear costs, single vs. multi commodity, uncapacitated vs. capacitated activities, single vs. multi modal and static vs. dynamic. The models examined address both strategic and tactical planning...

  9. Improving Baseline Model Assumptions: Evaluating the Impacts of Typical Methodological Approaches in Watershed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muenich, R. L.; Kalcic, M. M.; Teshager, A. D.; Long, C. M.; Wang, Y. C.; Scavia, D.

    2017-12-01

    Thanks to the availability of open-source software, online tutorials, and advanced software capabilities, watershed modeling has expanded its user-base and applications significantly in the past thirty years. Even complicated models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are being used and documented in hundreds of peer-reviewed publications each year, and likely more applied in practice. These models can help improve our understanding of present, past, and future conditions, or analyze important "what-if" management scenarios. However, baseline data and methods are often adopted and applied without rigorous testing. In multiple collaborative projects, we have evaluated the influence of some of these common approaches on model results. Specifically, we examined impacts of baseline data and assumptions involved in manure application, combined sewer overflows, and climate data incorporation across multiple watersheds in the Western Lake Erie Basin. In these efforts, we seek to understand the impact of using typical modeling data and assumptions, versus using improved data and enhanced assumptions on model outcomes and thus ultimately, study conclusions. We provide guidance for modelers as they adopt and apply data and models for their specific study region. While it is difficult to quantitatively assess the full uncertainty surrounding model input data and assumptions, recognizing the impacts of model input choices is important when considering actions at the both the field and watershed scales.

  10. A Modal Model to Simulate Typical Structural Dynamic Nonlinearity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pacini, Benjamin Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mayes, Randall L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roettgen, Daniel R [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Some initial investigations have been published which simulate nonlinear response with almost traditional modal models: instead of connecting the modal mass to ground through the traditional spring and damper, a nonlinear Iwan element was added. This assumes that the mode shapes do not change with amplitude and there are no interactions between modal degrees of freedom. This work expands on these previous studies. An impact experiment is performed on a structure which exhibits typical structural dynamic nonlinear response, i.e. weak frequency dependence and strong damping dependence on the amplitude of vibration. Use of low level modal test results in combination with high level impacts are processed using various combinations of modal filtering, the Hilbert Transform and band-pass filtering to develop response data that are then fit with various nonlinear elements to create a nonlinear pseudo-modal model. Simulations of forced response are compared with high level experimental data for various nonlinear element assumptions.

  11. Incorporating neurophysiological concepts in mathematical thermoregulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingma, Boris R. M.; Vosselman, M. J.; Frijns, A. J. H.; van Steenhoven, A. A.; van Marken Lichtenbelt, W. D.

    2014-01-01

    Skin blood flow (SBF) is a key player in human thermoregulation during mild thermal challenges. Various numerical models of SBF regulation exist. However, none explicitly incorporates the neurophysiology of thermal reception. This study tested a new SBF model that is in line with experimental data on thermal reception and the neurophysiological pathways involved in thermoregulatory SBF control. Additionally, a numerical thermoregulation model was used as a platform to test the function of the neurophysiological SBF model for skin temperature simulation. The prediction-error of the SBF-model was quantified by root-mean-squared-residual (RMSR) between simulations and experimental measurement data. Measurement data consisted of SBF (abdomen, forearm, hand), core and skin temperature recordings of young males during three transient thermal challenges (1 development and 2 validation). Additionally, ThermoSEM, a thermoregulation model, was used to simulate body temperatures using the new neurophysiological SBF-model. The RMSR between simulated and measured mean skin temperature was used to validate the model. The neurophysiological model predicted SBF with an accuracy of RMSR thermoregulation models can be equipped with SBF control functions that are based on neurophysiology without loss of performance. The neurophysiological approach in modelling thermoregulation is favourable over engineering approaches because it is more in line with the underlying physiology.

  12. Incorporating incorporating economic models into seasonal pool conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Robert C.; Bell, Kathleen P.; Calhoun, Aram J.K.; Loftin, Cyndy

    2012-01-01

    Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maine have adopted regulatory zones around seasonal (vernal) pools to conserve terrestrial habitat for pool-breeding amphibians. Most amphibians require access to distinct seasonal habitats in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems because of their complex life histories. These habitat requirements make them particularly vulnerable to land uses that destroy habitat or limit connectivity (or permeability) among habitats. Regulatory efforts focusing on breeding pools without consideration of terrestrial habitat needs will not ensure the persistence of pool-breeding amphibians. We used GIS to combine a discrete-choice, parcel-scale economic model of land conversion with a landscape permeability model based on known habitat requirements of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in Maine (USA) to examine permeability among habitat elements for alternative future scenarios. The economic model predicts future landscapes under different subdivision open space and vernal pool regulatory requirements. Our model showed that even “no build” permit zones extending 76 m (250 ft) outward from the pool edge were insufficient to assure permeability among required habitat elements. Furthermore, effectiveness of permit zones may be inconsistent due to interactions with other growth management policies, highlighting the need for local and state planning for the long-term persistence of pool-breeding amphibians in developing landscapes.

  13. Generalized eigenstate typicality in translation-invariant quasifree fermionic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddell, Jonathon; Müller, Markus P.

    2018-01-01

    We demonstrate a generalized notion of eigenstate thermalization for translation-invariant quasifree fermionic models: the vast majority of eigenstates satisfying a finite number of suitable constraints (e.g., fixed energy and particle number) have the property that their reduced density matrix on small subsystems approximates the corresponding generalized Gibbs ensemble. To this end, we generalize analytic results by H. Lai and K. Yang [Phys. Rev. B 91, 081110(R) (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevB.91.081110] and illustrate the claim numerically by example of the Jordan-Wigner transform of the XX spin chain.

  14. Incorporating direct marketing activity into latent attrition models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweidel, David A.; Knox, George

    2013-01-01

    When defection is unobserved, latent attrition models provide useful insights about customer behavior and accurate forecasts of customer value. Yet extant models ignore direct marketing efforts. Response models incorporate the effects of direct marketing, but because they ignore latent attrition,

  15. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, Christopher M; Bishop, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space), and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space), numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock returns and the market

  16. A Financial Market Model Incorporating Herd Behaviour.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher M Wray

    Full Text Available Herd behaviour in financial markets is a recurring phenomenon that exacerbates asset price volatility, and is considered a possible contributor to market fragility. While numerous studies investigate herd behaviour in financial markets, it is often considered without reference to the pricing of financial instruments or other market dynamics. Here, a trader interaction model based upon informational cascades in the presence of information thresholds is used to construct a new model of asset price returns that allows for both quiescent and herd-like regimes. Agent interaction is modelled using a stochastic pulse-coupled network, parametrised by information thresholds and a network coupling probability. Agents may possess either one or two information thresholds that, in each case, determine the number of distinct states an agent may occupy before trading takes place. In the case where agents possess two thresholds (labelled as the finite state-space model, corresponding to agents' accumulating information over a bounded state-space, and where coupling strength is maximal, an asymptotic expression for the cascade-size probability is derived and shown to follow a power law when a critical value of network coupling probability is attained. For a range of model parameters, a mixture of negative binomial distributions is used to approximate the cascade-size distribution. This approximation is subsequently used to express the volatility of model price returns in terms of the model parameter which controls the network coupling probability. In the case where agents possess a single pulse-coupling threshold (labelled as the semi-infinite state-space model corresponding to agents' accumulating information over an unbounded state-space, numerical evidence is presented that demonstrates volatility clustering and long-memory patterns in the volatility of asset returns. Finally, output from the model is compared to both the distribution of historical stock

  17. Incorporating territory compression into population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridley, J; Komdeur, J; Sutherland, WJ; Sutherland, William J.

    The ideal despotic distribution, whereby the lifetime reproductive success a territory's owner achieves is unaffected by population density, is a mainstay of behaviour-based population models. We show that the population dynamics of an island population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus

  18. A MODEL FOR INCORPORATING SPECIALIST NURSE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-09-15

    Sep 15, 2009 ... In this study, the development of a model is regarded as being consistent with middle-range theory generation (George 2002:6), which, in turn, guides the education practice of specialist nurses. According to Smith and Liehr,. [m]iddle range theory can be defined as a set of related ideas that are focused on ...

  19. Incorporating published univariable associations in diagnostic and prognostic modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.P.A. Debray (Thomas); H. Koffijberg (Hendrik); D. Lu (Difei); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); K.G.M. Moons (Karel)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Diagnostic and prognostic literature is overwhelmed with studies reporting univariable predictor-outcome associations. Currently, methods to incorporate such information in the construction of a prediction model are underdeveloped and unfamiliar to many researchers. Methods.

  20. True dose from incorporated activities. Models for internal dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breustedt, B.; Eschner, W.; Nosske, D.

    2012-01-01

    The assessment of doses after incorporation of radionuclides cannot use direct measurements of the doses, as for example dosimetry in external radiation fields. The only observables are activities in the body or in excretions. Models are used to calculate the doses based on the measured activities. The incorporated activities and the resulting doses can vary by more than seven orders of magnitude between occupational and medical exposures. Nevertheless the models and calculations applied in both cases are similar. Since the models for the different applications have been developed independently by ICRP and MIRD different terminologies have been used. A unified terminology is being developed. (orig.)

  1. The Aerosol Models in MODTRAN: Incorporating Selected Measurements From Northern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-12-01

    of atmospheric aerosol obtained around Jabiru , N.T., in June and September 2003. These measurements are used to obtain theoretical multimode size...coefficients. The attenuation coefficients are then incorporated into MODTRAN and compared with the default aerosol models. Finally the Jabiru aerosol is...centred on Jabiru in the Northern Territory, Australia. This environment is typical of a Northern Australian dry season climate. Atmospheric transmission

  2. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  3. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  4. Incorporating agricultural land cover in conceptual rainfall runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euser, Tanja; Hrachowitz, Markus; Winsemius, Hessel; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating spatially variable information is a frequently discussed option to increase the performance of (semi) distributed conceptual rainfall runoff models. One of the methods to do this is by using these spatially variable information to delineate Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) within a catchment. This study tests whether the incorporation of an additional agricultural HRU in a conceptual hydrological model can better reflect the spatial differences in runoff generation and therefore improve the simulation of the wetting phase in autumn. The study area is the meso-scale Ourthe catchment in Belgium. A previous study in this area showed that spatial patterns in runoff generation were already better represented by incorporation of a wetland and a hillslope HRU, compared to a lumped model structure. The influences which are considered by including an agriculture HRU are increased drainage speed due to roads, plough pans and increased infiltration excess overland flow (drainage pipes area only limited present), and variable vegetation patterns due to sowing and harvesting. In addition, the vegetation is not modelled as a static resistance towards evaporation, but the Jarvis stress functions are used to increase the realism of the modelled transpiration; in land-surface models the Jarvis stress functions are already often used for modelling transpiration. The results show that an agricultural conceptualisation in addition to wetland and hillslope conceptualisations leads to small improvements in the modelled discharge. However, the influence is larger on the representation of spatial patterns and the modelled contributions of different HRUs to the total discharge.

  5. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts When Modeling Brand Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we put forward a brand choice model which incorporates responsiveness to marketing efforts as a form of structural heterogeneity. We introduce two latent segments of households. The households in the first segment are assumed to respond to marketing efforts while households

  6. "Violent Intent Modeling: Incorporating Cultural Knowledge into the Analytical Process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Nibbs, Faith G.

    2007-08-24

    While culture has a significant effect on the appropriate interpretation of textual data, the incorporation of cultural considerations into data transformations has not been systematic. Recognizing that the successful prevention of terrorist activities could hinge on the knowledge of the subcultures, Anthropologist and DHS intern Faith Nibbs has been addressing the need to incorporate cultural knowledge into the analytical process. In this Brown Bag she will present how cultural ideology is being used to understand how the rhetoric of group leaders influences the likelihood of their constituents to engage in violent or radicalized behavior, and how violent intent modeling can benefit from understanding that process.

  7. Ex-plant consequence assessment for NUREG-1150: models, typical results, uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprung, J.L.

    1988-01-01

    The assessment of ex-plant consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms was performed using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). This paper briefly discusses the following elements of MACCS consequence calculations: input data, phenomena modeled, computational framework, typical results, controlling phenomena, and uncertainties. Wherever possible, NUREG-1150 results will be used to illustrate the discussion. 28 references

  8. How to incorporate generic refraction models into multistatic tracking algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crouse, D. F.

    The vast majority of literature published on target tracking ignores the effects of atmospheric refraction. When refraction is considered, the solutions are generally tailored to a simple exponential atmospheric refraction model. This paper discusses how arbitrary refraction models can be incorporated into tracking algorithms. Attention is paid to multistatic tracking problems, where uncorrected refractive effects can worsen track accuracy and consistency in centralized tracking algorithms, and can lead to difficulties in track-to-track association in distributed tracking filters. Monostatic and bistatic track initialization using refraction-corrupted measurements is discussed. The results are demonstrated using an exponential refractive model, though an arbitrary refraction profile can be substituted.

  9. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  10. Importance of incorporating agriculture in conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer-Euser, Tanja; Hrachowitz, Markus; Winsemius, Hessel; Savenije, Hubert

    2016-04-01

    Incorporating spatially variable information is a frequently discussed option to increase the performance of (semi-)distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff models. One of the methods to do this is by using this spatially variable information to delineate Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) within a catchment. In large parts of Europe the original forested land cover is replaced by an agricultural land cover. This change in land cover probably affects the dominant runoff processes in the area, for example by increasing the Hortonian overland flow component, especially on the flatter and higher elevated parts of the catchment. A change in runoff processes implies a change in HRUs as well. A previous version of our model distinguished wetlands (areas close to the stream) from the remainder of the catchment. However, this configuration was not able to reproduce all fast runoff processes, both in summer as in winter. Therefore, this study tests whether the reproduction of fast runoff processes can be improved by incorporating a HRU which explicitly accounts for the effect of agriculture. A case study is carried out in the Ourthe catchment in Belgium. For this case study the relevance of different process conceptualisations is tested stepwise. Among the conceptualisations are Hortonian overland flow in summer and winter, reduced infiltration capacity due to a partly frozen soil and the relative effect of rainfall and snow smelt in case of this frozen soil. The results show that the named processes can make a large difference on event basis, especially the Hortonian overland flow in summer and the combination of rainfall and snow melt on (partly) frozen soil in winter. However, differences diminish when the modelled period of several years is evaluated based on standard metrics like Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. These results emphasise on one hand the importance of incorporating the effects of agricultural in conceptual models and on the other hand the importance of more event

  11. A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jianliang; Feng Lianyong; Zhao Lin; Snowden, Simon; Wang Xu

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world's conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world's conventional oil (crude+NGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world's conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China's policy makers. - Highlights: ► Hubbert model and Generalized Weng model are introduced and compared in this article. ► We conclude each model's characteristic and scopes and conditions of applicable. ► We get the same peak production and time of world's oil by applying two models. ► Multicyclic Generalized Weng model is proven slightly better than Hubbert model.

  12. A planning model for a typical enrichement contract: a linear programming approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miguez, J.D.G.; Barreto, P.M.S.P.

    1981-01-01

    The need to match the demand for enrichment services of a nuclear power plant program with the offer of a typical enrichment contract, taking into account all the existing constraints and flexibilities, implies in building up a mathematical model. For each set of demands, which can be fully supplied under contract, the model must furnish the best scheduling of the SWU quantities according to an economic criterium. Such schedulling consists of establishing the fractions of each SWU demand to be met and the respective dates. (Author) [pt

  13. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  14. Incorporating published univariable associations in diagnostic and prognostic modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Debray Thomas P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diagnostic and prognostic literature is overwhelmed with studies reporting univariable predictor-outcome associations. Currently, methods to incorporate such information in the construction of a prediction model are underdeveloped and unfamiliar to many researchers. Methods This article aims to improve upon an adaptation method originally proposed by Greenland (1987 and Steyerberg (2000 to incorporate previously published univariable associations in the construction of a novel prediction model. The proposed method improves upon the variance estimation component by reconfiguring the adaptation process in established theory and making it more robust. Different variants of the proposed method were tested in a simulation study, where performance was measured by comparing estimated associations with their predefined values according to the Mean Squared Error and coverage of the 90% confidence intervals. Results Results demonstrate that performance of estimated multivariable associations considerably improves for small datasets where external evidence is included. Although the error of estimated associations decreases with increasing amount of individual participant data, it does not disappear completely, even in very large datasets. Conclusions The proposed method to aggregate previously published univariable associations with individual participant data in the construction of a novel prediction models outperforms established approaches and is especially worthwhile when relatively limited individual participant data are available.

  15. An extended car-following model considering the acceleration derivative in some typical traffic environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Tong; Chen, Dong; Liu, Weining

    2018-03-01

    Based on the full velocity difference and acceleration car-following model, an extended car-following model is proposed by considering the vehicle’s acceleration derivative. The stability condition is given by applying the control theory. Considering some typical traffic environments, the results of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show the extended model has a more actual acceleration of string vehicles than that of the previous models in starting process, stopping process and sudden brake. Meanwhile, the traffic jams more easily occur when the coefficient of vehicle’s acceleration derivative increases, which is presented by space-time evolution. The results confirm that the vehicle’s acceleration derivative plays an important role in the traffic jamming transition and the evolution of traffic congestion.

  16. A mathematical model for incorporating biofeedback into human postural control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ersal Tulga

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biofeedback of body motion can serve as a balance aid and rehabilitation tool. To date, mathematical models considering the integration of biofeedback into postural control have represented this integration as a sensory addition and limited their application to a single degree-of-freedom representation of the body. This study has two objectives: 1 to develop a scalable method for incorporating biofeedback into postural control that is independent of the model’s degrees of freedom, how it handles sensory integration, and the modeling of its postural controller; and 2 to validate this new model using multidirectional perturbation experimental results. Methods Biofeedback was modeled as an additional torque to the postural controller torque. For validation, this biofeedback modeling approach was applied to a vibrotactile biofeedback device and incorporated into a two-link multibody model with full-state-feedback control that represents the dynamics of bipedal stance. Average response trajectories of body sway and center of pressure (COP to multidirectional surface perturbations of subjects with vestibular deficits were used for model parameterization and validation in multiple perturbation directions and for multiple display resolutions. The quality of fit was quantified using average error and cross-correlation values. Results The mean of the average errors across all tactor configurations and perturbations was 0.24° for body sway and 0.39 cm for COP. The mean of the cross-correlation value was 0.97 for both body sway and COP. Conclusions The biofeedback model developed in this study is capable of capturing experimental response trajectory shapes with low average errors and high cross-correlation values in both the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions for all perturbation directions and spatial resolution display configurations considered. The results validate that biofeedback can be modeled as an additional

  17. Improving hydrological simulations by incorporating GRACE data for model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Peng; Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming

    2018-02-01

    Hydrological model parameters are typically calibrated by observed streamflow data. This calibration strategy is questioned when the simulated hydrological variables of interest are not limited to streamflow. Well-performed streamflow simulations do not guarantee the reliable reproduction of other hydrological variables. One of the reasons is that hydrological model parameters are not reasonably identified. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-derived total water storage change (TWSC) data provide an opportunity to constrain hydrological model parameterizations in combination with streamflow observations. In this study, a multi-objective calibration scheme based on GRACE-derived TWSC and streamflow observations was compared with the traditional single-objective calibration scheme based on only streamflow simulations. Two hydrological models were employed on 22 catchments in China with different climatic conditions. The model evaluations were performed using observed streamflows, GRACE-derived TWSC, and actual evapotranspiration (ET) estimates from flux towers and from the water balance approach. Results showed that the multi-objective calibration scheme provided more reliable TWSC and ET simulations without significant deterioration in the accuracy of streamflow simulations than the single-objective calibration. The improvement in TWSC and ET simulations was more significant in relatively dry catchments than in relatively wet catchments. In addition, hydrological models calibrated using GRACE-derived TWSC data alone cannot obtain accurate runoff simulations in ungauged catchments. This study highlights the importance of including additional constraints in addition to streamflow observations to improve performances of hydrological models.

  18. Incorporating Mobility in Growth Modeling for Multilevel and Longitudinal Item Response Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, In-Hee; Wilson, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Multilevel data often cannot be represented by the strict form of hierarchy typically assumed in multilevel modeling. A common example is the case in which subjects change their group membership in longitudinal studies (e.g., students transfer schools; employees transition between different departments). In this study, cross-classified and multiple membership models for multilevel and longitudinal item response data (CCMM-MLIRD) are developed to incorporate such mobility, focusing on students' school change in large-scale longitudinal studies. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of incorrectly modeling school membership in the analysis of multilevel and longitudinal item response data. Two types of school mobility are described, and corresponding models are specified. Results of the simulation studies suggested that appropriate modeling of the two types of school mobility using the CCMM-MLIRD yielded good recovery of the parameters and improvement over models that did not incorporate mobility properly. In addition, the consequences of incorrectly modeling the school effects on the variance estimates of the random effects and the standard errors of the fixed effects depended upon mobility patterns and model specifications. Two sets of large-scale longitudinal data are analyzed to illustrate applications of the CCMM-MLIRD for each type of school mobility.

  19. Models for the estimation of diffuse solar radiation for typical cities in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakirci, Kadir

    2015-01-01

    In solar energy applications, diffuse solar radiation component is required. Solar radiation data particularly in terms of diffuse component are not readily affordable, because of high price of measurements as well as difficulties in their maintenance and calibration. In this study, new empirical models for predicting the monthly mean diffuse solar radiation on a horizontal surface for typical cities in Turkey are established. Therefore, fifteen empirical models from studies in the literature are used. Also, eighteen diffuse solar radiation models are developed using long term sunshine duration and global solar radiation data. The accuracy of the developed models is evaluated in terms of different statistical indicators. It is found that the best performance is achieved for the third-order polynomial model based on sunshine duration and clearness index. - Highlights: • Diffuse radiation is given as a function of clearness index and sunshine fraction. • The diffuse radiation is an important parameter in solar energy applications. • The diffuse radiation measurement is for limited periods and it is very rare. • The new models can be used to estimate monthly average diffuse solar radiation. • The accuracy of the models is evaluated on the basis of statistical indicators

  20. Incorporating modelled subglacial hydrology into inversions for basal drag

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koziol, Conrad P.; Arnold, Neil

    2017-12-01

    A key challenge in modelling coupled ice-flow-subglacial hydrology is initializing the state and parameters of the system. We address this problem by presenting a workflow for initializing these values at the start of a summer melt season. The workflow depends on running a subglacial hydrology model for the winter season, when the system is not forced by meltwater inputs, and ice velocities can be assumed constant. Key parameters of the winter run of the subglacial hydrology model are determined from an initial inversion for basal drag using a linear sliding law. The state of the subglacial hydrology model at the end of winter is incorporated into an inversion of basal drag using a non-linear sliding law which is a function of water pressure. We demonstrate this procedure in the Russell Glacier area and compare the output of the linear sliding law with two non-linear sliding laws. Additionally, we compare the modelled winter hydrological state to radar observations and find that it is in line with summer rather than winter observations.

  1. Incorporating modelled subglacial hydrology into inversions for basal drag

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. P. Koziol

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A key challenge in modelling coupled ice-flow–subglacial hydrology is initializing the state and parameters of the system. We address this problem by presenting a workflow for initializing these values at the start of a summer melt season. The workflow depends on running a subglacial hydrology model for the winter season, when the system is not forced by meltwater inputs, and ice velocities can be assumed constant. Key parameters of the winter run of the subglacial hydrology model are determined from an initial inversion for basal drag using a linear sliding law. The state of the subglacial hydrology model at the end of winter is incorporated into an inversion of basal drag using a non-linear sliding law which is a function of water pressure. We demonstrate this procedure in the Russell Glacier area and compare the output of the linear sliding law with two non-linear sliding laws. Additionally, we compare the modelled winter hydrological state to radar observations and find that it is in line with summer rather than winter observations.

  2. Safety models incorporating graph theory based transit indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintero, Liliana; Sayed, Tarek; Wahba, Mohamed M

    2013-01-01

    There is a considerable need for tools to enable the evaluation of the safety of transit networks at the planning stage. One interesting approach for the planning of public transportation systems is the study of networks. Network techniques involve the analysis of systems by viewing them as a graph composed of a set of vertices (nodes) and edges (links). Once the transport system is visualized as a graph, various network properties can be evaluated based on the relationships between the network elements. Several indicators can be calculated including connectivity, coverage, directness and complexity, among others. The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between network-based transit indicators and safety. The study develops macro-level collision prediction models that explicitly incorporate transit physical and operational elements and transit network indicators as explanatory variables. Several macro-level (zonal) collision prediction models were developed using a generalized linear regression technique, assuming a negative binomial error structure. The models were grouped into four main themes: transit infrastructure, transit network topology, transit route design, and transit performance and operations. The safety models showed that collisions were significantly associated with transit network properties such as: connectivity, coverage, overlapping degree and the Local Index of Transit Availability. As well, the models showed a significant relationship between collisions and some transit physical and operational attributes such as the number of routes, frequency of routes, bus density, length of bus and 3+ priority lanes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Dong Gu; Thomas, Valerie M.

    2012-01-01

    Energy policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and change the mix of electricity generation sources, such as carbon cap-and-trade systems and renewable electricity standards, can affect not only the source of electricity generation, but also the price of electricity and, consequently, demand. We develop an optimization model to determine the lowest cost investment and operation plan for the generating capacity of an electric power system. The model incorporates demand response to price change. In a case study for a U.S. state, we show the price, demand, and generation mix implications of a renewable electricity standard, and of a carbon cap-and-trade policy with and without initial free allocation of carbon allowances. This study shows that both the demand moderating effects and the generation mix changing effects of the policies can be the sources of carbon emissions reductions, and also shows that the share of the sources could differ with different policy designs. The case study provides different results when demand elasticity is excluded, underscoring the importance of incorporating demand response in the evaluation of electricity generation policies. - Highlights: ► We develop an electric power system optimization model including demand elasticity. ► Both renewable electricity and carbon cap-and-trade policies can moderate demand. ► Both policies affect the generation mix, price, and demand for electricity. ► Moderated demand can be a significant source of carbon emission reduction. ► For cap-and-trade policies, initial free allowances change outcomes significantly.

  4. A Modal Model to Simulate Typical Structural Dynamic Nonlinearity [PowerPoint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mayes, Randall L.; Pacini, Benjamin Robert; Roettgen, Dan

    2016-01-01

    Some initial investigations have been published which simulate nonlinear response with almost traditional modal models: instead of connecting the modal mass to ground through the traditional spring and damper, a nonlinear Iwan element was added. This assumes that the mode shapes do not change with amplitude and there are no interactions between modal degrees of freedom. This work expands on these previous studies. An impact experiment is performed on a structure which exhibits typical structural dynamic nonlinear response, i.e. weak frequency dependence and strong damping dependence on the amplitude of vibration. Use of low level modal test results in combination with high level impacts are processed using various combinations of modal filtering, the Hilbert Transform and band-pass filtering to develop response data that are then fit with various nonlinear elements to create a nonlinear pseudo-modal model. Simulations of forced response are compared with high level experimental data for various nonlinear element assumptions.

  5. Modeling a typical winter-time dust event over the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko

    2013-02-20

    We used WRF-Chem, a regional meteorological model coupled with an aerosol-chemistry component, to simulate various aspects of the dust phenomena over the Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea during a typical winter-time dust event that occurred in January 2009. The model predicted that the total amount of emitted dust was 18.3 Tg for the entire dust outburst period and that the two maximum daily rates were ?2.4 Tg day-1 and ?1.5 Tg day-1, corresponding to two periods with the highest aerosol optical depth that were well captured by ground-and satellite-based observations. The model predicted that the dust plume was thick, extensive, and mixed in a deep boundary layer at an altitude of 3-4 km. Its spatial distribution was modeled to be consistent with typical spatial patterns of dust emissions. We utilized MODIS-Aqua and Solar Village AERONET measurements of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) to evaluate the radiative impact of aerosols. Our results clearly indicated that the presence of dust particles in the atmosphere caused a significant reduction in the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface during the dust event. We also found that dust aerosols have significant impact on the energy and nutrient balances of the Red Sea. Our results showed that the simulated cooling under the dust plume reached 100 W m-2, which could have profound effects on both the sea surface temperature and circulation. Further analysis of dust generation and its spatial and temporal variability is extremely important for future projections and for better understanding of the climate and ecological history of the Red Sea.

  6. Modeling a typical winter-time dust event over the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kalenderski

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available We used WRF-Chem, a regional meteorological model coupled with an aerosol-chemistry component, to simulate various aspects of the dust phenomena over the Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea during a typical winter-time dust event that occurred in January 2009. The model predicted that the total amount of emitted dust was 18.3 Tg for the entire dust outburst period and that the two maximum daily rates were ~2.4 Tg day−1 and ~1.5 Tg day−1, corresponding to two periods with the highest aerosol optical depth that were well captured by ground- and satellite-based observations. The model predicted that the dust plume was thick, extensive, and mixed in a deep boundary layer at an altitude of 3–4 km. Its spatial distribution was modeled to be consistent with typical spatial patterns of dust emissions. We utilized MODIS-Aqua and Solar Village AERONET measurements of the aerosol optical depth (AOD to evaluate the radiative impact of aerosols. Our results clearly indicated that the presence of dust particles in the atmosphere caused a significant reduction in the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface during the dust event. We also found that dust aerosols have significant impact on the energy and nutrient balances of the Red Sea. Our results showed that the simulated cooling under the dust plume reached 100 W m−2, which could have profound effects on both the sea surface temperature and circulation. Further analysis of dust generation and its spatial and temporal variability is extremely important for future projections and for better understanding of the climate and ecological history of the Red Sea.

  7. Tantalum strength model incorporating temperature, strain rate and pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett; Brown, Justin; Lane, Matt

    Tantalum is a body-centered-cubic (BCC) refractory metal that is widely used in many applications in high temperature, strain rate and pressure environments. In this work, we propose a physically-based strength model for tantalum that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. A constitutive model for single crystal tantalum is developed based on dislocation kink-pair theory, and calibrated to measurements on single crystal specimens. The model is then used to predict deformations of single- and polycrystalline tantalum. In addition, the proposed strength model is implemented into Sandia's ALEGRA solid dynamics code to predict plastic deformations of tantalum in engineering-scale applications at extreme conditions, e.g. Taylor impact tests and Z machine's high pressure ramp compression tests, and the results are compared with available experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  8. Incorporating Plant Phenology Dynamics in a Biophysical Canopy Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barata, Raquel A.; Drewry, Darren

    2012-01-01

    The Multi-Layer Canopy Model (MLCan) is a vegetation model created to capture plant responses to environmental change. Themodel vertically resolves carbon uptake, water vapor and energy exchange at each canopy level by coupling photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and leaf energy balance. The model is forced by incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, as well as near-surface meteorological conditions. The original formulation of MLCan utilized canopy structural traits derived from observations. This project aims to incorporate a plant phenology scheme within MLCan allowing these structural traits to vary dynamically. In the plant phenology scheme implemented here, plant growth is dependent on environmental conditions such as air temperature and soil moisture. The scheme includes functionality that models plant germination, growth, and senescence. These growth stages dictate the variation in six different vegetative carbon pools: storage, leaves, stem, coarse roots, fine roots, and reproductive. The magnitudes of these carbon pools determine land surface parameters such as leaf area index, canopy height, rooting depth and root water uptake capacity. Coupling this phenology scheme with MLCan allows for a more flexible representation of the structure and function of vegetation as it responds to changing environmental conditions.

  9. Incorporation of chemical kinetic models into process control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herget, C.J.; Frazer, J.W.

    1981-01-01

    An important consideration in chemical process control is to determine the precise rationing of reactant streams, particularly when a large time delay exists between the mixing of the reactants and the measurement of the product. In this paper, a method is described for incorporating chemical kinetic models into the control strategy in order to achieve optimum operating conditions. The system is first characterized by determining a reaction rate surface as a function of all input reactant concentrations over a feasible range. A nonlinear constrained optimization program is then used to determine the combination of reactants which produces the specified yield at minimum cost. This operating condition is then used to establish the nominal concentrations of the reactants. The actual operation is determined through a feedback control system employing a Smith predictor. The method is demonstrated on a laboratory bench scale enzyme reactor

  10. Enhanced air dispersion modelling at a typical Chinese nuclear power plant site: Coupling RIMPUFF with two advanced diagnostic wind models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yun; Li, Hong; Sun, Sida; Fang, Sheng

    2017-09-01

    An enhanced air dispersion modelling scheme is proposed to cope with the building layout and complex terrain of a typical Chinese nuclear power plant (NPP) site. In this modelling, the California Meteorological Model (CALMET) and the Stationary Wind Fit and Turbulence (SWIFT) are coupled with the Risø Mesoscale PUFF model (RIMPUFF) for refined wind field calculation. The near-field diffusion coefficient correction scheme of the Atmospheric Relative Concentrations in the Building Wakes Computer Code (ARCON96) is adopted to characterize dispersion in building arrays. The proposed method is evaluated by a wind tunnel experiment that replicates the typical Chinese NPP site. For both wind speed/direction and air concentration, the enhanced modelling predictions agree well with the observations. The fraction of the predictions within a factor of 2 and 5 of observations exceeds 55% and 82% respectively in the building area and the complex terrain area. This demonstrates the feasibility of the new enhanced modelling for typical Chinese NPP sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Multi-model inference for incorporating trophic and climate uncertainty into stock assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ianelli, James; Holsman, Kirstin K.; Punt, André E.; Aydin, Kerim

    2016-12-01

    Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) approaches allow a broader and more extensive consideration of objectives than is typically possible with conventional single-species approaches. Ecosystem linkages may include trophic interactions and climate change effects on productivity for the relevant species within the system. Presently, models are evolving to include a comprehensive set of fishery and ecosystem information to address these broader management considerations. The increased scope of EBFM approaches is accompanied with a greater number of plausible models to describe the systems. This can lead to harvest recommendations and biological reference points that differ considerably among models. Model selection for projections (and specific catch recommendations) often occurs through a process that tends to adopt familiar, often simpler, models without considering those that incorporate more complex ecosystem information. Multi-model inference provides a framework that resolves this dilemma by providing a means of including information from alternative, often divergent models to inform biological reference points and possible catch consequences. We apply an example of this approach to data for three species of groundfish in the Bering Sea: walleye pollock, Pacific cod, and arrowtooth flounder using three models: 1) an age-structured "conventional" single-species model, 2) an age-structured single-species model with temperature-specific weight at age, and 3) a temperature-specific multi-species stock assessment model. The latter two approaches also include consideration of alternative future climate scenarios, adding another dimension to evaluate model projection uncertainty. We show how Bayesian model-averaging methods can be used to incorporate such trophic and climate information to broaden single-species stock assessments by using an EBFM approach that may better characterize uncertainty.

  12. Modelling of spectroscopic batch process data using grey models to incorporate external information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gurden, S. P.; Westerhuis, J. A.; Bijlsma, S.; Smilde, A. K.

    2001-01-01

    In both analytical and process chemistry, one common aim is to build models describing measured data. In cases where additional information about the chemical system is available, this can be incorporated into the model with the aim of improving model fit and interpretability. A model which consists

  13. Incorporating a 360 Degree Evaluation Model IOT Transform the USMC Performance Evaluation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-02-08

    Incorporating a 360 Evaluation Model IOT Transform the USMC Performance Evaluation System EWS 2005 Subject Area Manpower...Incorporating a 360 Evaluation Model IOT Transform the USMC Performance Evaluation System” Contemporary...COVERED 00-00-2005 to 00-00-2005 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Incorporating a 360 Evaluation Model IOT Transform the USMC Performance

  14. Digital terrain model generalization incorporating scale, semantic and cognitive constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partsinevelos, Panagiotis; Papadogiorgaki, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Cartographic generalization is a well-known process accommodating spatial data compression, visualization and comprehension under various scales. In the last few years, there are several international attempts to construct tangible GIS systems, forming real 3D surfaces using a vast number of mechanical parts along a matrix formation (i.e., bars, pistons, vacuums). Usually, moving bars upon a structured grid push a stretching membrane resulting in a smooth visualization for a given surface. Most of these attempts suffer either in their cost, accuracy, resolution and/or speed. Under this perspective, the present study proposes a surface generalization process that incorporates intrinsic constrains of tangible GIS systems including robotic-motor movement and surface stretching limitations. The main objective is to provide optimized visualizations of 3D digital terrain models with minimum loss of information. That is, to minimize the number of pixels in a raster dataset used to define a DTM, while reserving the surface information. This neighborhood type of pixel relations adheres to the basics of Self Organizing Map (SOM) artificial neural networks, which are often used for information abstraction since they are indicative of intrinsic statistical features contained in the input patterns and provide concise and characteristic representations. Nevertheless, SOM remains more like a black box procedure not capable to cope with possible particularities and semantics of the application at hand. E.g. for coastal monitoring applications, the near - coast areas, surrounding mountains and lakes are more important than other features and generalization should be "biased"-stratified to fulfill this requirement. Moreover, according to the application objectives, we extend the SOM algorithm to incorporate special types of information generalization by differentiating the underlying strategy based on topologic information of the objects included in the application. The final

  15. Incorporation of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids into lipid pools when given as supplements providing doses equivalent to typical intakes of oily fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, Lucy M; Walker, Celia G; Mander, Adrian P; West, Annette L; Madden, Jackie; Gambell, Joanna M; Young, Stephen; Wang, Laura; Jebb, Susan A; Calder, Philip C

    2012-10-01

    Estimation of the intake of oily fish at a population level is difficult. The measurement of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) in biological samples may provide a useful biomarker of intake. We identified the most appropriate biomarkers for the assessment of habitual oily fish intake and changes in intake by elucidating the dose- and time-dependent response of EPA and DHA incorporation into various biological samples that represent roles in fatty acid transport, function, and storage. This was a double-blind, randomized, controlled intervention trial in 204 men and women that lasted 12 mo. EPA and DHA capsules were provided in a manner to reflect sporadic consumption of oily fish (ie, 1, 2, or 4 times/wk). EPA and DHA were assessed at 9 time points over 12 mo in 9 sample types (red blood cells, mononuclear cells, platelets, buccal cells, adipose tissue, plasma phosphatidylcholine, triglycerides, cholesteryl esters, and nonesterified fatty acids). A dose response (P 12 mo (adipose tissue). Plasma phosphatidylcholine EPA plus DHA was identified as the most suitable biomarker of acute changes in EPA and DHA intake, and platelet and mononuclear cell EPA plus DHA were the most suitable biomarkers of habitual intake.

  16. Cooperative Problem-Based Learning (CPBL: A Practical PBL Model for a Typical Course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khairiyah Mohd-Yusof

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Problem-Based Learning (PBL is an inductive learning approach that uses a realistic problem as the starting point of learning. Unlike in medical education, which is more easily adaptable to PBL, implementing PBL in engineering courses in the traditional semester system set-up is challenging. While PBL is normally implemented in small groups of up to ten students with a dedicated tutor during PBL sessions in medical education, this is not plausible in engineering education because of the high enrolment and large class sizes. In a typical course, implementation of PBL consisting of students in small groups in medium to large classes is more practical. However, this type of implementation is more difficult to monitor, and thus requires good support and guidance in ensuring commitment and accountability of each student towards learning in his/her group. To provide the required support, Cooperative Learning (CL is identified to have the much needed elements to develop the small student groups to functional learning teams. Combining both CL and PBL results in a Cooperative Problem-Based Learning (CPBL model that provides a step by step guide for students to go through the PBL cycle in their teams, according to CL principles. Suitable for implementation in medium to large classes (approximately 40-60 students for one floating facilitator, with small groups consisting of 3-5 students, the CPBL model is designed to develop the students in the whole class into a learning community. This paper provides a detailed description of the CPBL model. A sample implementation in a third year Chemical Engineering course, Process Control and Dynamics, is also described.

  17. GLOBAL MODELING OF NEBULAE WITH PARTICLE GROWTH, DRIFT, AND EVAPORATION FRONTS. I. METHODOLOGY AND TYPICAL RESULTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estrada, Paul R.; Cuzzi, Jeffrey N.; Morgan, Demitri A.

    2016-01-01

    We model particle growth in a turbulent, viscously evolving protoplanetary nebula, incorporating sticking, bouncing, fragmentation, and mass transfer at high speeds. We treat small particles using a moments method and large particles using a traditional histogram binning, including a probability distribution function of collisional velocities. The fragmentation strength of the particles depends on their composition (icy aggregates are stronger than silicate aggregates). The particle opacity, which controls the nebula thermal structure, evolves as particles grow and mass redistributes. While growing, particles drift radially due to nebula headwind drag. Particles of different compositions evaporate at “evaporation fronts” (EFs) where the midplane temperature exceeds their respective evaporation temperatures. We track the vapor and solid phases of each component, accounting for advection and radial and vertical diffusion. We present characteristic results in evolutions lasting 2 × 10 5 years. In general, (1) mass is transferred from the outer to the inner nebula in significant amounts, creating radial concentrations of solids at EFs; (2) particle sizes are limited by a combination of fragmentation, bouncing, and drift; (3) “lucky” large particles never represent a significant amount of mass; and (4) restricted radial zones just outside each EF become compositionally enriched in the associated volatiles. We point out implications for millimeter to submillimeter SEDs and the inference of nebula mass, radial banding, the role of opacity on new mechanisms for generating turbulence, the enrichment of meteorites in heavy oxygen isotopes, variable and nonsolar redox conditions, the primary accretion of silicate and icy planetesimals, and the makeup of Jupiter’s core

  18. GLOBAL MODELING OF NEBULAE WITH PARTICLE GROWTH, DRIFT, AND EVAPORATION FRONTS. I. METHODOLOGY AND TYPICAL RESULTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estrada, Paul R. [Carl Sagan Center, SETI Institute, 189 N. Bernardo Avenue # 100, Mountain View, CA 94043 (United States); Cuzzi, Jeffrey N. [Ames Research Center, NASA, Mail Stop 245-3, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Morgan, Demitri A., E-mail: Paul.R.Estrada@nasa.gov [USRA, NASA Ames Research Center, Mail Stop 245-3, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States)

    2016-02-20

    We model particle growth in a turbulent, viscously evolving protoplanetary nebula, incorporating sticking, bouncing, fragmentation, and mass transfer at high speeds. We treat small particles using a moments method and large particles using a traditional histogram binning, including a probability distribution function of collisional velocities. The fragmentation strength of the particles depends on their composition (icy aggregates are stronger than silicate aggregates). The particle opacity, which controls the nebula thermal structure, evolves as particles grow and mass redistributes. While growing, particles drift radially due to nebula headwind drag. Particles of different compositions evaporate at “evaporation fronts” (EFs) where the midplane temperature exceeds their respective evaporation temperatures. We track the vapor and solid phases of each component, accounting for advection and radial and vertical diffusion. We present characteristic results in evolutions lasting 2 × 10{sup 5} years. In general, (1) mass is transferred from the outer to the inner nebula in significant amounts, creating radial concentrations of solids at EFs; (2) particle sizes are limited by a combination of fragmentation, bouncing, and drift; (3) “lucky” large particles never represent a significant amount of mass; and (4) restricted radial zones just outside each EF become compositionally enriched in the associated volatiles. We point out implications for millimeter to submillimeter SEDs and the inference of nebula mass, radial banding, the role of opacity on new mechanisms for generating turbulence, the enrichment of meteorites in heavy oxygen isotopes, variable and nonsolar redox conditions, the primary accretion of silicate and icy planetesimals, and the makeup of Jupiter’s core.

  19. Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Oleg Rybak

    2018-03-06

    Mar 6, 2018 ... Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we ...

  20. Typical worlds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Jeffrey A.

    2017-05-01

    Hugh Everett III presented pure wave mechanics, sometimes referred to as the many-worlds interpretation, as a solution to the quantum measurement problem. While pure wave mechanics is an objectively deterministic physical theory with no probabilities, Everett sought to show how the theory might be understood as making the standard quantum statistical predictions as appearances to observers who were themselves described by the theory. We will consider his argument and how it depends on a particular notion of branch typicality. We will also consider responses to Everett and the relationship between typicality and probability. The suggestion will be that pure wave mechanics requires a number of significant auxiliary assumptions in order to make anything like the standard quantum predictions.

  1. Implementing the Standards: Incorporating Mathematical Modeling into the Curriculum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swetz, Frank

    1991-01-01

    Following a brief historical review of the mechanism of mathematical modeling, examples are included that associate a mathematical model with given data (changes in sea level) and that model a real-life situation (process of parallel parking). Also provided is the rationale for the curricular implementation of mathematical modeling. (JJK)

  2. Incorporating inductances in tissue-scale models of cardiac electrophysiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Simone; Griffith, Boyce E.

    2017-09-01

    In standard models of cardiac electrophysiology, including the bidomain and monodomain models, local perturbations can propagate at infinite speed. We address this unrealistic property by developing a hyperbolic bidomain model that is based on a generalization of Ohm's law with a Cattaneo-type model for the fluxes. Further, we obtain a hyperbolic monodomain model in the case that the intracellular and extracellular conductivity tensors have the same anisotropy ratio. In one spatial dimension, the hyperbolic monodomain model is equivalent to a cable model that includes axial inductances, and the relaxation times of the Cattaneo fluxes are strictly related to these inductances. A purely linear analysis shows that the inductances are negligible, but models of cardiac electrophysiology are highly nonlinear, and linear predictions may not capture the fully nonlinear dynamics. In fact, contrary to the linear analysis, we show that for simple nonlinear ionic models, an increase in conduction velocity is obtained for small and moderate values of the relaxation time. A similar behavior is also demonstrated with biophysically detailed ionic models. Using the Fenton-Karma model along with a low-order finite element spatial discretization, we numerically analyze differences between the standard monodomain model and the hyperbolic monodomain model. In a simple benchmark test, we show that the propagation of the action potential is strongly influenced by the alignment of the fibers with respect to the mesh in both the parabolic and hyperbolic models when using relatively coarse spatial discretizations. Accurate predictions of the conduction velocity require computational mesh spacings on the order of a single cardiac cell. We also compare the two formulations in the case of spiral break up and atrial fibrillation in an anatomically detailed model of the left atrium, and we examine the effect of intracellular and extracellular inductances on the virtual electrode phenomenon.

  3. Computational fluid dynamics modeling of rope-guided conveyances in two typical kinds of shaft layouts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renyuan Wu

    Full Text Available The behavior of rope-guided conveyances is so complicated that the rope-guided hoisting system hasn't been understood thoroughly so far. In this paper, with user-defined functions loaded, ANSYS FLUENT 14.5 was employed to simulate lateral motion of rope-guided conveyances in two typical kinds of shaft layouts. With rope-guided mine elevator and mine cages taken into account, results show that the lateral aerodynamic buffeting force is much larger than the Coriolis force, and the side aerodynamic force have the same order of magnitude as the Coriolis force. The lateral aerodynamic buffeting forces should also be considered especially when the conveyance moves along the ventilation air direction. The simulation shows that the closer size of the conveyances can weaken the transverse aerodynamic buffeting effect.

  4. A quantum model of exaptation: incorporating potentiality into evolutionary theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabora, Liane; Scott, Eric O; Kauffman, Stuart

    2013-09-01

    The phenomenon of preadaptation, or exaptation (wherein a trait that originally evolved to solve one problem is co-opted to solve a new problem) presents a formidable challenge to efforts to describe biological phenomena using a classical (Kolmogorovian) mathematical framework. We develop a quantum framework for exaptation with examples from both biological and cultural evolution. The state of a trait is written as a linear superposition of a set of basis states, or possible forms the trait could evolve into, in a complex Hilbert space. These basis states are represented by mutually orthogonal unit vectors, each weighted by an amplitude term. The choice of possible forms (basis states) depends on the adaptive function of interest (e.g., ability to metabolize lactose or thermoregulate), which plays the role of the observable. Observables are represented by self-adjoint operators on the Hilbert space. The possible forms (basis states) corresponding to this adaptive function (observable) are called eigenstates. The framework incorporates key features of exaptation: potentiality, contextuality, nonseparability, and emergence of new features. However, since it requires that one enumerate all possible contexts, its predictive value is limited, consistent with the assertion that there exists no biological equivalent to "laws of motion" by which we can predict the evolution of the biosphere. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Incorporating Contagion in Portfolio Credit Risk Models Using Network Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anagnostou, I.; Sourabh, S.; Kandhai, D.

    2018-01-01

    Portfolio credit risk models estimate the range of potential losses due to defaults or deteriorations in credit quality. Most of these models perceive default correlation as fully captured by the dependence on a set of common underlying risk factors. In light of empirical evidence, the ability of

  6. Conditional spectrum computation incorporating multiple causal earthquakes and ground-motion prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ting; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Baker, Jack W.; Luco, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all earthquake scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) and seismic source models. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single earthquake scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal earthquakes and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal earthquake and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are performed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some insights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.

  7. Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuurman, Noémi K.; Houtveen, Jan H.; Hamaker, Ellen L.

    2015-01-01

    Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30–50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters. PMID:26283988

  8. Looking around houses: attention to a model when drawing complex shapes in Williams syndrome and typical development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Kerry D; Farran, Emily K

    2013-09-01

    Drawings by individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) typically lack cohesion. The popular hypothesis is that this is a result of excessive focus on local-level detail at the expense of global configuration. In this study, we explored a novel hypothesis that inadequate attention might underpin drawing in WS. WS and typically developing (TD) non-verbal ability matched groups copied and traced a house figure comprised of geometric shapes. The house was presented on a computer screen for 5-s periods and participants pressed a key to re-view the model. Frequency of key-presses indexed the looks to the model. The order that elements were replicated was recorded to assess hierarchisation of elements. If a lack of attention to the model explained poor drawing performance, we expected participants with WS to look less frequently to the model than TD children when copying. If a local-processing preference underpins drawing in WS, more local than global elements would be produced. Results supported the first, but not second hypothesis. The WS group looked to the model infrequently, but global, not local, parts were drawn first, scaffolding local-level details. Both groups adopted a similar order of drawing and tracing of parts, suggesting typical, although delayed strategy-use in the WS group. Additionally both groups drew larger elements of the model before smaller elements, suggested a size-bias when drawing. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  10. Thermohidraulic model for a typical steam generator of PWR Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braga, C.V.M.

    1980-06-01

    A model of thermohidraulic simulation, for steady state, considering the secondary flow divided in two parts individually homogeneous, and with heat and mass transferences between them is developed. The quality of the two-phase mixture that is fed to the turbine is fixed and, based on this value, the feedwater pressure is determined. The recirculation ratio is intrinsically determined. Based on this model it was developed the GEVAP code, in Fortran-IV language. The model is applied to the steam generator of the Angra II nuclear power plant and the results are compared with KWU'S design parameters, being considered satisfactory. (Author) [pt

  11. Incorporating spiritual beliefs into a cognitive model of worry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosmarin, David H; Pirutinsky, Steven; Auerbach, Randy P; Björgvinsson, Thröstur; Bigda-Peyton, Joseph; Andersson, Gerhard; Pargament, Kenneth I; Krumrei, Elizabeth J

    2011-07-01

    Cognitive theory and research have traditionally highlighted the relevance of the core beliefs about oneself, the world, and the future to human emotions. For some individuals, however, core beliefs may also explicitly involve spiritual themes. In this article, we propose a cognitive model of worry, in which positive/negative beliefs about the Divine affect symptoms through the mechanism of intolerance of uncertainty. Using mediation analyses, we found support for our model across two studies, in particular, with regards to negative spiritual beliefs. These findings highlight the importance of assessing for spiritual alongside secular convictions when creating cognitive-behavioral case formulations in the treatment of religious individuals. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. 75 FR 56487 - Airworthiness Directives; Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated Model S-64F Helicopters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-16

    ... Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 39 RIN 2120-AA64 Airworthiness Directives; Erickson Air-Crane... Air-Crane Incorporated (Erickson Air-Crane) Model S- 64F helicopters. The AD would require, at... the service information identified in this proposed AD from Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated, 3100...

  13. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

  14. 75 FR 20265 - Airworthiness Directives; Liberty Aerospace Incorporated Model XL-2 Airplanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-19

    ...-020-AD; Amendment 39-16264; AD 2009-08-05 R1] RIN 2120-AA64 Airworthiness Directives; Liberty... Liberty Aerospace Incorporated Model XL-2 airplanes. AD 2009-08-05 currently requires repetitively... approved the incorporation by reference of Liberty Aerospace, Inc. Service Document Critical Service...

  15. Day-to-day route choice modeling incorporating inertial behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Essen, Mariska Alice; Rakha, H.; Vreeswijk, Jacob Dirk; Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; van Berkum, Eric C.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate route choice modeling is one of the most important aspects when predicting the effects of transport policy and dynamic traffic management. Moreover, the effectiveness of intervention measures to a large extent depends on travelers’ response to the changes these measures cause. As a

  16. Modelling toluene oxidation : Incorporation of mass transfer phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoorn, J.A.A.; van Soolingen, J.; Versteeg, G. F.

    The kinetics of the oxidation of toluene have been studied in close interaction with the gas-liquid mass transfer occurring in the reactor. Kinetic parameters for a simple model have been estimated on basis of experimental observations performed under industrial conditions. The conclusions for the

  17. Do Knowledge-Component Models Need to Incorporate Representational Competencies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rau, Martina Angela

    2017-01-01

    Traditional knowledge-component models describe students' content knowledge (e.g., their ability to carry out problem-solving procedures or their ability to reason about a concept). In many STEM domains, instruction uses multiple visual representations such as graphs, figures, and diagrams. The use of visual representations implies a…

  18. Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus on methodology of coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Nevecherja, Artiom

    2018-03-01

    Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland.

  19. Constitutive modeling of coronary artery bypass graft with incorporated torsion

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horný, L.; Chlup, Hynek; Žitný, R.; Adámek, T.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 2 (2009), s. 273-277 ISSN 0543-5846 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA106/08/0557 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : coronary artery bypass graft * constitutive model * digital image correlation Subject RIV: BJ - Thermodynamics Impact factor: 0.439, year: 2009 http://web.tuke.sk/sjf-kamam/mmams2009/contents.pdf

  20. General model of wood in typical coupled tasks. Part I. – Phenomenological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Koňas

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this work is focused on FE modeling of wood structure. This task is conditioned mainly by different organized structures/regions (tissues, anomalies... and leads to homogenization process of multiphysics declaration of common scientific and engineering problems. The crucial role in this paper is played by derivation of coefficient form of general PDE which is solvable by nowadays numerical solvers. Generality of supposed model is given by wide range of coupled physical fields included in the model. Used approach summarizes and brings together models for various fields of matter and energy common in wood material in wood drying process, but is also suitable for a lot of different tasks of similar materials. Namely microwave drying of wood with orthotropic, visco-elastic material properties together with time, moisture and temperature dependency of structural strains by modified mechanical properties were included. Specific matrixes of elasticity for in­di­vi­dual fields were derived. Thermal field in wood was described by conduction type of spreading. Coupling of physical fields is based on diffusive character of temperature, moisture, static pressure fields movement.

  1. Numerical modeling for longwall pillar design: a case study from a typical longwall panel in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guangchao; Liang, Saijiang; Tan, Yunliang; Xie, Fuxing; Chen, Shaojie; Jia, Hongguo

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a new numerical modeling procedure and design principle for longwall pillar design with the assistance of numerical simulation of FLAC3D. A coal mine located in Yanzhou city, Shandong Province, China, was selected for this case study. A meticulously validated numerical model was developed to investigate the stress changes across the longwall pillar with various sizes. In order to improve the reliability of the numerical modeling, a calibration procedure is undertaken to match the Salamon and Munro pillar strength formula for the coal pillar, while a similar calibration procedure is used to estimate the stress-strain response of a gob. The model results demonstrated that when the coal pillar width was 7-8 m, most of the vertical load was carried by the panel rib, whilst the gateroad was overall in a relatively low stress environment and could keep its stability with proper supports. Thus, the rational longwall pillar width was set as 8 m and the field monitoring results confirmed the feasibility of this pillar size. The proposed numerical simulation procedure and design principle presented in this study could be a viable alternative approach for longwall pillar design for other similar projects.

  2. Incorporating affective bias in models of human decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nygren, Thomas E.

    1991-01-01

    Research on human decision making has traditionally focused on how people actually make decisions, how good their decisions are, and how their decisions can be improved. Recent research suggests that this model is inadequate. Affective as well as cognitive components drive the way information about relevant outcomes and events is perceived, integrated, and used in the decision making process. The affective components include how the individual frames outcomes as good or bad, whether the individual anticipates regret in a decision situation, the affective mood state of the individual, and the psychological stress level anticipated or experienced in the decision situation. A focus of the current work has been to propose empirical studies that will attempt to examine in more detail the relationships between the latter two critical affective influences (mood state and stress) on decision making behavior.

  3. Incorporating Probability Models of Complex Test Structures to Perform Technology Independent FPGA Single Event Upset Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, M. D.; Kim, H. S.; Friendlich, M. A.; Perez, C. E.; Seidlick, C. M.; LaBel, K. A.

    2011-01-01

    We present SEU test and analysis of the Microsemi ProASIC3 FPGA. SEU Probability models are incorporated for device evaluation. Included is a comparison to the RTAXS FPGA illustrating the effectiveness of the overall testing methodology.

  4. INCORPORATION OF MECHANISTIC INFORMATION IN THE ARSENIC PBPK MODEL DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

    Science.gov (United States)

    INCORPORATING MECHANISTIC INSIGHTS IN A PBPK MODEL FOR ARSENICElaina M. Kenyon, Michael F. Hughes, Marina V. Evans, David J. Thomas, U.S. EPA; Miroslav Styblo, University of North Carolina; Michael Easterling, Analytical Sciences, Inc.A physiologically based phar...

  5. Exergoeconomic performance optimization for a steady-flow endoreversible refrigeration model including six typical cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Lingen; Kan, Xuxian; Sun, Fengrui; Wu, Feng [College of Naval Architecture and Power, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033 (China)

    2013-07-01

    The operation of a universal steady flow endoreversible refrigeration cycle model consisting of a constant thermal-capacity heating branch, two constant thermal-capacity cooling branches and two adiabatic branches is viewed as a production process with exergy as its output. The finite time exergoeconomic performance optimization of the refrigeration cycle is investigated by taking profit rate optimization criterion as the objective. The relations between the profit rate and the temperature ratio of working fluid, between the COP (coefficient of performance) and the temperature ratio of working fluid, as well as the optimal relation between profit rate and the COP of the cycle are derived. The focus of this paper is to search the compromised optimization between economics (profit rate) and the utilization factor (COP) for endoreversible refrigeration cycles, by searching the optimum COP at maximum profit, which is termed as the finite-time exergoeconomic performance bound. Moreover, performance analysis and optimization of the model are carried out in order to investigate the effect of cycle process on the performance of the cycles using numerical example. The results obtained herein include the performance characteristics of endoreversible Carnot, Diesel, Otto, Atkinson, Dual and Brayton refrigeration cycles.

  6. Magnesium degradation influenced by buffering salts in concentrations typical of in vitro and in vivo models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agha, Nezha Ahmad; Feyerabend, Frank; Mihailova, Boriana; Heidrich, Stefanie; Bismayer, Ulrich; Willumeit-Römer, Regine

    2016-01-01

    Magnesium and its alloys have considerable potential for orthopedic applications. During the degradation process the interface between material and tissue is continuously changing. Moreover, too fast or uncontrolled degradation is detrimental for the outcome in vivo. Therefore in vitro setups utilizing physiological conditions are promising for the material/degradation analysis prior to animal experiments. The aim of this study is to elucidate the influence of inorganic salts contributing to the blood buffering capacity on degradation. Extruded pure magnesium samples were immersed under cell culture conditions for 3 and 10 days. Hank's balanced salt solution without calcium and magnesium (HBSS) plus 10% of fetal bovine serum (FBS) was used as the basic immersion medium. Additionally, different inorganic salts were added with respect to concentration in Dulbecco's modified Eagle's medium (DMEM, in vitro model) and human plasma (in vivo model) to form 12 different immersion media. Influences on the surrounding environment were observed by measuring pH and osmolality. The degradation interface was analyzed by electron-induced X-ray emission (EIXE) spectroscopy, including chemical-element mappings and electron microprobe analysis, as well as Fourier transform infrared reflection micro-spectroscopy (FTIR). - Highlights: • Influence of blood buffering salts on magnesium degradation was studied. • CaCl 2 reduced the degradation rate by Ca–PO 4 layer formation. • MgSO 4 influenced the morphology of the degradation interface. • NaHCO 3 induced the formation of MgCO 3 as a degradation product

  7. Simplified CFD model of coolant channels typical of a plate-type fuel element: an exhaustive verification of the simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mantecón, Javier González; Mattar Neto, Miguel, E-mail: javier.mantecon@ipen.br, E-mail: mmattar@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The use of parallel plate-type fuel assemblies is common in nuclear research reactors. One of the main problems of this fuel element configuration is the hydraulic instability of the plates caused by the high flow velocities. The current work is focused on the hydrodynamic characterization of coolant channels typical of a flat-plate fuel element, using a numerical model developed with the commercial code ANSYS CFX. Numerical results are compared to accurate analytical solutions, considering two turbulence models and three different fluid meshes. For this study, the results demonstrated that the most suitable turbulence model is the k-ε model. The discretization error is estimated using the Grid Convergence Index method. Despite its simplicity, this model generates precise flow predictions. (author)

  8. A neuro-fuzzy model for prediction of the indoor temperature in typical Australian residential buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alasha' ary, Haitham; Moghtaderi, Behdad; Page, Adrian; Sugo, Heber [Priority Research Centre for Energy, Chemical Engineering, School of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, the University of Newcastle, Callaghan, Newcastle, NSW 2308 (Australia)

    2009-07-15

    The Masonry Research Group at The University of Newcastle, Australia has embarked on an extensive research program to study the thermal performance of common walling systems in Australian residential buildings by studying the thermal behaviour of four representative purpose-built thermal test buildings (referred to as 'test modules' or simply 'modules' hereafter). The modules are situated on the university campus and are constructed from brick veneer (BV), cavity brick (CB) and lightweight (LW) constructions. The program of study has both experimental and analytical strands, including the use of a neuro-fuzzy approach to predict the thermal behaviour. The latter approach employs an experimental adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) which is used in this study to predict the room (indoor) temperatures of the modules under a range of climatic conditions pertinent to Newcastle (NSW, Australia). The study shows that this neuro-fuzzy model is capable of accurately predicting the room temperature of such buildings; thus providing a potential computationally efficient and inexpensive predictive tool for the more effective thermal design of housing. (author)

  9. The effects of typical and atypical antipsychotics on the electrical activity of the brain in a rat model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oytun Erbaş

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Antipsychotic drugs are known to have strongeffect on the bioelectric activity in the brain. However,some studies addressing the changes on electroencephalography(EEG caused by typical and atypical antipsychoticdrugs are conflicting. We aimed to compare the effectsof typical and atypical antipsychotics on the electricalactivity in the brain via EEG recordings in a rat model.Methods: Thirty-two Sprague Dawley adult male ratswere used in the study. The rats were divided into fivegroups, randomly (n=7, for each group. The first groupwas used as control group and administered 1 ml/kg salineintraperitoneally (IP. Haloperidol (1 mg/kg (group 2,chlorpromazine (5 mg/kg (group 3, olanzapine (1 mg/kg(group 4, ziprasidone (1 mg/ kg (group 5 were injectedIP for five consecutive days. Then, EEG recordings ofeach group were taken for 30 minutes.Results: The percentages of delta and theta waves inhaloperidol, chlorpromazine, olanzapine and ziprasidonegroups were found to have a highly significant differencecompared with the saline administration group (p<0.001.The theta waves in the olanzapine and ziprasidonegroups were increased compared with haloperidol andchlorpromazine groups (p<0.05.Conclusion: The typical and atypical antipsychotic drugsmay be risk factor for EEG abnormalities. This studyshows that antipsychotic drugs should be used with caution.J Clin Exp Invest 2013; 4 (3: 279-284Key words: Haloperidol, chlorpromazine, olanzapine,ziprasidone, EEG, rat

  10. A mathematical model for the performance assessment of engineering barriers of a typical near surface radioactive waste disposal facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonio, Raphaela N.; Rotunno Filho, Otto C. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia. Lab. de Hidrologia e Estudos do Meio Ambiente]. E-mail: otto@hidro.ufrj.br; Ruperti Junior, Nerbe J.; Lavalle Filho, Paulo F. Heilbron [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: nruperti@cnen.gov.br

    2005-07-01

    This work proposes a mathematical model for the performance assessment of a typical radioactive waste disposal facility based on the consideration of a multiple barrier concept. The Generalized Integral Transform Technique is employed to solve the Advection-Dispersion mass transfer equation under the assumption of saturated one-dimensional flow, to obtain solute concentrations at given times and locations within the medium. A test-case is chosen in order to illustrate the performance assessment of several configurations of a multi barrier system adopted for the containment of sand contaminated with Ra-226 within a trench. (author)

  11. Development and Calibration of an Item Response Model That Incorporates Response Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyou; Hanson, Bradley H.

    2005-01-01

    This article proposes an item response model that incorporates response time. A parameter estimation procedure using the EM algorithm is developed. The procedure is evaluated with both real and simulated test data. The results suggest that the estimation procedure works well in estimating model parameters. By using response time data, estimation…

  12. The Internal/External Frame of Reference Model Revisited: Incorporating General Cognitive Ability and General Academic Self-Concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunner, Martin; Lüdtke, Oliver; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2008-01-01

    The internal/external frame of reference model (I/E model; Marsh, 1986 ) is a highly influential model of self-concept formation, which predicts that domain-specific abilities have positive effects on academic self-concepts in the corresponding domain and negative effects across domains. Investigations of the I/E model do not typically incorporate general cognitive ability or general academic self-concept. This article investigates alternative measurement models for domain-specific and domain-general cognitive abilities and academic self-concepts within an extended I/E model framework using representative data from 25,301 9th-grade students. Empirical support was found for the external validity of a new measurement model for academic self-concepts with respect to key student characteristics (gender, school satisfaction, educational aspirations, domain-specific interests, grades). Moreover, the basic predictions of the I/E model were confirmed, and the new extension of the traditional I/E model permitted meaningful relations to be drawn between domain-general cognitive ability and domain-general academic self-concept as well as between the domain-specific elements of the model.

  13. A rhenium tris-carbonyl derivative as a model molecule for incorporation into phospholipid assemblies for skin applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Estibalitz; Rodríguez, Gelen; Hostachy, Sarah; Clède, Sylvain; Cócera, Mercedes; Sandt, Christophe; Lambert, François; de la Maza, Alfonso; Policar, Clotilde; López, Olga

    2015-07-01

    A rhenium tris-carbonyl derivative (fac-[Re(CO)3Cl(2-(1-dodecyl-1H-1,2,3,triazol-4-yl)-pyridine)]) was incorporated into phospholipid assemblies, called bicosomes, and the penetration of this molecule into skin was monitored using Fourier-transform infrared microspectroscopy (FTIR). To evaluate the capacity of bicosomes to promote the penetration of this derivative, the skin penetration of the Re(CO)3 derivative dissolved in dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), a typical enhancer, was also studied. Dynamic light scattering results (DLS) showed an increase in the size of the bicosomes with the incorporation of the Re(CO)3 derivative, and the FTIR microspectroscopy showed that the Re(CO)3 derivative incorporated in bicosomes penetrated deeper into the skin than when dissolved in DMSO. When this molecule was applied on the skin using the bicosomes, 60% of the Re(CO)3 derivative was retained in the stratum corneum (SC) and 40% reached the epidermis (Epi). Otherwise, the application of this molecule via DMSO resulted in 95% of the Re(CO)3 derivative being in the SC and only 5% reaching the Epi. Using a Re(CO)3 derivative with a dodecyl-chain as a model molecule, it was possible to determine the distribution of molecules with similar physicochemical characteristics in the skin using bicosomes. This fact makes these nanostructures promising vehicles for the application of lipophilic molecules inside the skin. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A Bayesian model for pooling gene expression studies that incorporates co-regulation information.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin M Conlon

    Full Text Available Current Bayesian microarray models that pool multiple studies assume gene expression is independent of other genes. However, in prokaryotic organisms, genes are arranged in units that are co-regulated (called operons. Here, we introduce a new Bayesian model for pooling gene expression studies that incorporates operon information into the model. Our Bayesian model borrows information from other genes within the same operon to improve estimation of gene expression. The model produces the gene-specific posterior probability of differential expression, which is the basis for inference. We found in simulations and in biological studies that incorporating co-regulation information improves upon the independence model. We assume that each study contains two experimental conditions: a treatment and control. We note that there exist environmental conditions for which genes that are supposed to be transcribed together lose their operon structure, and that our model is best carried out for known operon structures.

  15. Incorporation of the capillary hysteresis model HYSTR into the numerical code TOUGH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niemi, A.; Bodvarsson, G.S.; Pruess, K.

    1991-11-01

    As part of the work performed to model flow in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain Nevada, a capillary hysteresis model has been developed. The computer program HYSTR has been developed to compute the hysteretic capillary pressure -- liquid saturation relationship through interpolation of tabulated data. The code can be easily incorporated into any numerical unsaturated flow simulator. A complete description of HYSTR, including a brief summary of the previous hysteresis literature, detailed description of the program, and instructions for its incorporation into a numerical simulator are given in the HYSTR user's manual (Niemi and Bodvarsson, 1991a). This report describes the incorporation of HYSTR into the numerical code TOUGH (Transport of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat; Pruess, 1986). The changes made and procedures for the use of TOUGH for hysteresis modeling are documented

  16. Modeling individual differences in text reading fluency: a different pattern of predictors for typically developing and dyslexic readers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierluigi eZoccolotti

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study was aimed at predicting individual differences in text reading fluency. The basic proposal included two factors, i.e., the ability to decode letter strings (measured by discrete pseudo-word reading and integration of the various sub-components involved in reading (measured by Rapid Automatized Naming, RAN. Subsequently, a third factor was added to the model, i.e., naming of discrete digits. In order to use homogeneous measures, all contributing variables considered the entire processing of the item, including pronunciation time. The model, which was based on commonality analysis, was applied to data from a group of 43 typically developing readers (11- to 13-year-olds and a group of 25 chronologically matched dyslexic children. In typically developing readers, both orthographic decoding and integration of reading sub-components contributed significantly to the overall prediction of text reading fluency. The model prediction was higher (from ca. 37% to 52% of the explained variance when we included the naming of discrete digits variable, which had a suppressive effect on pseudo-word reading. In the dyslexic readers, the variance explained by the two-factor model was high (69% and did not change when the third factor was added. The lack of a suppression effect was likely due to the prominent individual differences in poor orthographic decoding of the dyslexic children. Analyses on data from both groups of children were replicated by using patches of colours as stimuli (both in the RAN task and in the discrete naming task obtaining similar results. We conclude that it is possible to predict much of the variance in text-reading fluency using basic processes, such as orthographic decoding and integration of reading sub-components, even without taking into consideration higher-order linguistic factors such as lexical, semantic and contextual abilities. The approach validity of using proximal vs distal causes to predict reading fluency is

  17. Simulation of Forest Carbon Fluxes Using Model Incorporation and Data Assimilation

    OpenAIRE

    Min Yan; Xin Tian; Zengyuan Li; Erxue Chen; Xufeng Wang; Zongtao Han; Hong Sun

    2016-01-01

    This study improved simulation of forest carbon fluxes in the Changbai Mountains with a process-based model (Biome-BGC) using incorporation and data assimilation. Firstly, the original remote sensing-based MODIS MOD_17 GPP (MOD_17) model was optimized using refined input data and biome-specific parameters. The key ecophysiological parameters of the Biome-BGC model were determined through the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) sensitivity analysis. Then the optimized MOD_17 mo...

  18. A new experimental procedure for incorporation of model contaminants in polymer hosts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papaspyrides, C.D.; Voultzatis, Y.; Pavlidou, S.; Tsenoglou, C.; Dole, P.; Feigenbaum, A.; Paseiro, P.; Pastorelli, S.; Cruz Garcia, C. de la; Hankemeier, T.; Aucejo, S.

    2005-01-01

    A new experimental procedure for incorporation of model contaminants in polymers was developed as part of a general scheme for testing the efficiency of functional barriers in food packaging. The aim was to progressively pollute polymers in a controlled fashion up to a high level in the range of

  19. Identification of a Typical CSTR Using Optimal Focused Time Lagged Recurrent Neural Network Model with Gamma Memory Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Naikwad

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A focused time lagged recurrent neural network (FTLR NN with gamma memory filter is designed to learn the subtle complex dynamics of a typical CSTR process. Continuous stirred tank reactor exhibits complex nonlinear operations where reaction is exothermic. It is noticed from literature review that process control of CSTR using neuro-fuzzy systems was attempted by many, but optimal neural network model for identification of CSTR process is not yet available. As CSTR process includes temporal relationship in the input-output mappings, time lagged recurrent neural network is particularly used for identification purpose. The standard back propagation algorithm with momentum term has been proposed in this model. The various parameters like number of processing elements, number of hidden layers, training and testing percentage, learning rule and transfer function in hidden and output layer are investigated on the basis of performance measures like MSE, NMSE, and correlation coefficient on testing data set. Finally effects of different norms are tested along with variation in gamma memory filter. It is demonstrated that dynamic NN model has a remarkable system identification capability for the problems considered in this paper. Thus FTLR NN with gamma memory filter can be used to learn underlying highly nonlinear dynamics of the system, which is a major contribution of this paper.

  20. INCORPORATING MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES IN PLANNING MODELS OF LOW-RESOURCE FARMERS

    OpenAIRE

    Flinn, John C.; Jayasuriya, Sisira; Knight, C. Gregory

    1980-01-01

    Linear goal programming provides a means of formally incorporating the multiple goals of a household into the analysis of farming systems. Using this approach, the set of plans which come as close as possible to achieving a set of desired goals under conditions of land and cash scarcity are derived for a Filipino tenant farmer. A challenge in making LGP models empirically operational is the accurate definition of the goals of the farm household being modelled.

  1. Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty in Bayesian Segmentation Models: Application to Hippocampal Subfield Volumetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iglesias, J. E.; Sabuncu, M. R.; Van Leemput, Koen

    2012-01-01

    Many successful segmentation algorithms are based on Bayesian models in which prior anatomical knowledge is combined with the available image information. However, these methods typically have many free parameters that are estimated to obtain point estimates only, whereas a faithful Bayesian anal...

  2. Incorporation of all hazard categories into U.S. NRC PRA models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sancaktar, Selim; Ferrante, Fernando; Siu, Nathan; Coyne, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    Over the last two decades, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has maintained independent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models to calculate nuclear power plant (NPP) core damage frequency (CDF) from internal events at power. These models are known as Standardized Plan Analysis Risk (SPAR) models. There are 79 such models representing 104 domestic nuclear plants; with some SPAR models representing more than one unit on the site. These models allow the NRC risk analysts to perform independent quantitative risk estimates of operational events and degraded plant conditions. It is well recognized that using only the internal events contribution to overall plant risk estimates provides a useful, but limited, assessment of the complete plant risk profile. Inclusion, of all hazard categories applicable to a plant in the plant PRA model would provide a more comprehensive assessment of a plant risk. However, implementation of a more comprehensive treatment of additional hazard categories (e.g., fire, flooding, high winds, seismic) presents a number of challenges, including technical considerations. The U.S. NRC has been incorporating additional hazard categories into its set of nuclear power plant PRA models since 2004. Currently, 18 SPAR models include additional hazard categories such as internal flooding, internal fire, seismic, and wind events. In most cases, these external hazard models were derived from Generic Letter 88-20 Individual Plant Examination of External Events (IPEEE) reports. Recently, NRC started incorporating detailed Fire PRA (FPRA) information based on the current licensing effort that allows licensees to transition into a risk-informed fire protection framework, as well as additional external hazards developed by some licensees into enhanced SPAR models. These updated external hazards SPAR models are referred to as SPAR All-Hazard (SPAR-AHZ) models (i.e., they incorporate additional risk contributors beyond internal events). This paper

  3. In silico investigation of the short QT syndrome, using human ventricle models incorporating electromechanical coupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismail eAdeniran

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Genetic forms of the Short QT Syndrome (SQTS arise due to cardiac ion channel mutations leading to accelerated ventricular repolarisation, arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. Results from experimental and simulation studies suggest that changes to refractoriness and tissue vulnerability produce a substrate favourable to re-entry. Potential electromechanical consequences of the SQTS are less well understood. The aim of this study was to utilize electromechanically coupled human ventricle models to explore electromechanical consequences of the SQTS. Methods and results: The Rice et al. mechanical model was coupled to the ten Tusscher et al. ventricular cell model. Previously validated K+ channel formulations for SQT variants 1 and 3 were incorporated. Functional effects of the SQTS mutations on transients, sarcomere length shortening and contractile force at the single cell level were evaluated with and without the consideration of stretch activated channel current (Isac. Without Isac, the SQTS mutations produced dramatic reductions in the amplitude of transients, sarcomere length shortening and contractile force. When Isac was incorporated, there was a considerable attenuation of the effects of SQTS-associated action potential shortening on Ca2+ transients, sarcomere shortening and contractile force. Single cell models were then incorporated into 3D human ventricular tissue models. The timing of maximum deformation was delayed in the SQTS setting compared to control. Conclusion: The incorporation of Isac appears to be an important consideration in modelling functional effects of SQT 1 and 3 mutations on cardiac electro-mechanical coupling. Whilst there is little evidence of profoundly impaired cardiac contractile function in SQTS patients, our 3D simulations correlate qualitatively with reported evidence for dissociation between ventricular repolarization and the end of mechanical systole.

  4. Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodsman, Devin W; Aukema, Brian H; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang

    2018-01-01

    Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual-based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual-based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature-dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills mature pine trees. This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large-scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.

  5. Improving Watershed-Scale Hydrodynamic Models by Incorporating Synthetic 3D River Bathymetry Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, S.; Saksena, S.; Merwade, V.

    2017-12-01

    Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) have an incomplete representation of river bathymetry, which is critical for simulating river hydrodynamics in flood modeling. Generally, DEMs are augmented with field collected bathymetry data, but such data are available only at individual reaches. Creating a hydrodynamic model covering an entire stream network in the basin requires bathymetry for all streams. This study extends a conceptual bathymetry model, River Channel Morphology Model (RCMM), to estimate the bathymetry for an entire stream network for application in hydrodynamic modeling using a DEM. It is implemented at two large watersheds with different relief and land use characterizations: coastal Guadalupe River basin in Texas with flat terrain and a relatively urban White River basin in Indiana with more relief. After bathymetry incorporation, both watersheds are modeled using HEC-RAS (1D hydraulic model) and Interconnected Pond and Channel Routing (ICPR), a 2-D integrated hydrologic and hydraulic model. A comparison of the streamflow estimated by ICPR at the outlet of the basins indicates that incorporating bathymetry influences streamflow estimates. The inundation maps show that bathymetry has a higher impact on flat terrains of Guadalupe River basin when compared to the White River basin.

  6. Commensurate Priors for Incorporating Historical Information in Clinical Trials Using General and Generalized Linear Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, Brian P.; Sargent, Daniel J.; Carlin, Bradley P.

    2014-01-01

    Assessing between-study variability in the context of conventional random-effects meta-analysis is notoriously difficult when incorporating data from only a small number of historical studies. In order to borrow strength, historical and current data are often assumed to be fully homogeneous, but this can have drastic consequences for power and Type I error if the historical information is biased. In this paper, we propose empirical and fully Bayesian modifications of the commensurate prior model (Hobbs et al., 2011) extending Pocock (1976), and evaluate their frequentist and Bayesian properties for incorporating patient-level historical data using general and generalized linear mixed regression models. Our proposed commensurate prior models lead to preposterior admissible estimators that facilitate alternative bias-variance trade-offs than those offered by pre-existing methodologies for incorporating historical data from a small number of historical studies. We also provide a sample analysis of a colon cancer trial comparing time-to-disease progression using a Weibull regression model. PMID:24795786

  7. Evaluation of water conservation capacity of loess plateau typical mountain ecosystems based on InVEST model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Xizhi; Zuo, Zhongguo; Xiao, Peiqing

    2017-06-01

    With increasing demand for water resources and frequently a general deterioration of local water resources, water conservation by forests has received considerable attention in recent years. To evaluate water conservation capacities of different forest ecosystems in mountainous areas of Loess Plateau, the landscape of forests was divided into 18 types in Loess Plateau. Under the consideration of the factors such as climate, topography, plant, soil and land use, the water conservation of the forest ecosystems was estimated by means of InVEST model. The result showed that 486417.7 hm2 forests in typical mountain areas were divided into 18 forest types, and the total water conservation quantity was 1.64×1012m3, equaling an average of water conversation quantity of 9.09×1010m3. There is a great difference in average water conversation capacity among various forest types. The water conservation function and its evaluation is crucial and complicated issues in the study of ecological service function in modern times.

  8. Incorporating Pass-Phrase Dependent Background Models for Text-Dependent Speaker verification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarkar, Achintya Kumar; Tan, Zheng-Hua

    2018-01-01

    is compared to conventional text-independent background model based TD-SV systems using either Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-universal background model (UBM) or Hidden Markov model (HMM)-UBM or i-vector paradigms. In addition, we consider two approaches to build PBMs: speaker-independent and speaker......In this paper, we propose pass-phrase dependent background models (PBMs) for text-dependent (TD) speaker verification (SV) to integrate the pass-phrase identification process into the conventional TD-SV system, where a PBM is derived from a text-independent background model through adaptation using...... and the selected PBM is then used for the log likelihood ratio (LLR) calculation with respect to the claimant model. The proposed method incorporates the pass-phrase identification step in the LLR calculation, which is not considered in conventional standalone TD-SV systems. The performance of the proposed method...

  9. Gold Incorporated Mesoporous Silica Thin Film Model Surface as a Robust SERS and Catalytically Active Substrate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anandakumari Chandrasekharan Sunil Sekhar

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Ultra-small gold nanoparticles incorporated in mesoporous silica thin films with accessible pore channels perpendicular to the substrate are prepared by a modified sol-gel method. The simple and easy spin coating technique is applied here to make homogeneous thin films. The surface characterization using FESEM shows crack-free films with a perpendicular pore arrangement. The applicability of these thin films as catalysts as well as a robust SERS active substrate for model catalysis study is tested. Compared to bare silica film our gold incorporated silica, GSM-23F gave an enhancement factor of 103 for RhB with a laser source 633 nm. The reduction reaction of p-nitrophenol with sodium borohydride from our thin films shows a decrease in peak intensity corresponding to –NO2 group as time proceeds, confirming the catalytic activity. Such model surfaces can potentially bridge the material gap between a real catalytic system and surface science studies.

  10. Microfluidic vascularized bone tissue model with hydroxyapatite-incorporated extracellular matrix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jusoh, Norhana; Oh, Soojung; Kim, Sudong; Kim, Jangho; Jeon, Noo Li

    2015-10-21

    Current in vitro systems mimicking bone tissues fail to fully integrate the three-dimensional (3D) microvasculature and bone tissue microenvironments, decreasing their similarity to in vivo conditions. Here, we propose 3D microvascular networks in a hydroxyapatite (HA)-incorporated extracellular matrix (ECM) for designing and manipulating a vascularized bone tissue model in a microfluidic device. Incorporation of HA of various concentrations resulted in ECM with varying mechanical properties. Sprouting angiogenesis was affected by mechanically modulated HA-extracellular matrix interactions, generating a model of vascularized bone microenvironment. Using this platform, we observed that hydroxyapatite enhanced angiogenic properties such as sprout length, sprouting speed, sprout number, and lumen diameter. This new platform integrates fibrin ECM with the synthetic bone mineral HA to provide in vivo-like microenvironments for bone vessel sprouting.

  11. Modeling fraud detection and the incorporation of forensic specialists in the audit process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakalauskaite, Dominyka

    Financial statement audits are still comparatively poor in fraud detection. Forensic specialists can play a significant role in increasing audit quality. In this paper, based on prior academic research, I develop a model of fraud detection and the incorporation of forensic specialists in the audit...... process. The intention of the model is to identify the reasons why the audit is weak in fraud detection and to provide the analytical framework to assess whether the incorporation of forensic specialists can help to improve it. The results show that such specialists can potentially improve the fraud...... detection in the audit, but might also cause some negative implications. Overall, even though fraud detection is one of the main topics in research there are very few studies done on the subject of how auditors co-operate with forensic specialists. Thus, the paper concludes with suggestions for further...

  12. Image quality analysis of high-density diffuse optical tomography incorporating a subject-specific head model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuxuan eZhan

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available High-density diffuse optical tomography (HD-DOT methods have shown significant improvement in localization accuracy and image resolution compared to traditional topographic near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS of the human brain. In this work we provide a comprehensive evaluation of image quality in visual cortex mapping via a simulation study with the use of an anatomical head model derived from MRI data of a human subject. A model of individual head anatomy provides the surface shape and internal structure that allow for the construction of a more realistic physical model for the forward problem, as well as the use of a structural constraint in the inverse problem. The HD-DOT model utilized here incorporates multiple source-detector separations with continuous-wave data with added noise based on experimental results. To evaluate image quality we quantify the localization error and localized volume at half maximum (LVHM throughout a region of interest (ROI within the visual cortex and systematically analyze the use of whole brain tissue spatial constraint within image reconstruction. Our results demonstrate that an image quality with less than 10 mm in localization error and 1000 m3 in LVHM can be obtained up to 13 mm below the scalp surface with a typical unconstrained reconstruction and up to 18 mm deep when a spatial constraint based on the brain tissue is utilized.

  13. Stochastic modelling of landfill processes incorporating waste heterogeneity and data uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zacharof, A.I.; Butler, A.P.

    2004-01-01

    A landfill is a very complex heterogeneous environment and as such it presents many modelling challenges. Attempts to develop models that reproduce these complexities generally involve the use of large numbers of spatially dependent parameters that cannot be properly characterised in the face of data uncertainty. An alternative method is presented, which couples a simplified microbial degradation model with a stochastic hydrological and contaminant transport model. This provides a framework for incorporating the complex effects of spatial heterogeneity within the landfill in a simplified manner, along with other key variables. A methodology for handling data uncertainty is also integrated into the model structure. Illustrative examples of the model's output are presented to demonstrate effects of data uncertainty on leachate composition and gas volume prediction

  14. A Constitutive Model for Soft Clays Incorporating Elastic and Plastic Cross-Anisotropy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Jorge; Sivasithamparam, Nallathamby

    2017-05-25

    Natural clays exhibit a significant degree of anisotropy in their fabric, which initially is derived from the shape of the clay platelets, deposition process and one-dimensional consolidation. Various authors have proposed anisotropic elastoplastic models involving an inclined yield surface to reproduce anisotropic behavior of plastic nature. This paper presents a novel constitutive model for soft structured clays that includes anisotropic behavior both of elastic and plastic nature. The new model incorporates stress-dependent cross-anisotropic elastic behavior within the yield surface using three independent elastic parameters because natural clays exhibit cross-anisotropic (or transversely isotropic) behavior after deposition and consolidation. Thus, the model only incorporates an additional variable with a clear physical meaning, namely the ratio between horizontal and vertical stiffnesses, which can be analytically obtained from conventional laboratory tests. The model does not consider evolution of elastic anisotropy, but laboratory results show that large strains are necessary to cause noticeable changes in elastic anisotropic behavior. The model is able to capture initial non-vertical effective stress paths for undrained triaxial tests and to predict deviatoric strains during isotropic loading or unloading.

  15. Incorporation of Markov reliability models for digital instrumentation and control systems into existing PRAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucci, P.; Mangan, L. A.; Kirschenbaum, J.; Mandelli, D.; Aldemir, T.; Arndt, S. A.

    2006-01-01

    Markov models have the ability to capture the statistical dependence between failure events that can arise in the presence of complex dynamic interactions between components of digital instrumentation and control systems. One obstacle to the use of such models in an existing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is that most of the currently available PRA software is based on the static event-tree/fault-tree methodology which often cannot represent such interactions. We present an approach to the integration of Markov reliability models into existing PRAs by describing the Markov model of a digital steam generator feedwater level control system, how dynamic event trees (DETs) can be generated from the model, and how the DETs can be incorporated into an existing PRA with the SAPHIRE software. (authors)

  16. A code reviewer assignment model incorporating the competence differences and participant preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yanqing

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A good assignment of code reviewers can effectively utilize the intellectual resources, assure code quality and improve programmers’ skills in software development. However, little research on reviewer assignment of code review has been found. In this study, a code reviewer assignment model is created based on participants’ preference to reviewing assignment. With a constraint of the smallest size of a review group, the model is optimized to maximize review outcomes and avoid the negative impact of “mutual admiration society”. This study shows that the reviewer assignment strategies incorporating either the reviewers’ preferences or the authors’ preferences get much improvement than a random assignment. The strategy incorporating authors’ preference makes higher improvement than that incorporating reviewers’ preference. However, when the reviewers’ and authors’ preference matrixes are merged, the improvement becomes moderate. The study indicates that the majority of the participants have a strong wish to work with reviewers and authors having highest competence. If we want to satisfy the preference of both reviewers and authors at the same time, the overall improvement of learning outcomes may be not the best.

  17. Incorporation of UK Met Office's radiation scheme into CPTEC's global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chagas, Júlio C. S.; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.

    2009-03-01

    Current parameterization of radiation in the CPTEC's (Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil) operational AGCM has its origins in the work of Harshvardhan et al. (1987) and uses the formulation of Ramaswamy and Freidenreich (1992) for the short-wave absorption by water vapor. The UK Met Office's radiation code (Edwards and Slingo, 1996) was incorporated into CPTEC's global model, initially for short-wave only, and some impacts of that were shown by Chagas and Barbosa (2006). Current paper presents some impacts of the complete incorporation (both short-wave and long-wave) of UK Met Office's scheme. Selected results from off-line comparisons with line-by-line benchmark calculations are shown. Impacts on the AGCM's climate are assessed by comparing output of climate runs of current and modified AGCM with products from GEWEX/SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) project.

  18. Global dynamics of a PDE model for aedes aegypti mosquitoe incorporating female sexual preference

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we study the long time dynamics of a reaction diffusion system, describing the spread of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which are the primary cause of dengue infection. The system incorporates a control attempt via the sterile insect technique. The model incorporates female mosquitoes sexual preference for wild males over sterile males. We show global existence of strong solution for the system. We then derive uniform estimates to prove the existence of a global attractor in L-2(Omega), for the system. The attractor is shown to be L-infinity(Omega) regular and posess state of extinction, if the injection of sterile males is large enough. We also provide upper bounds on the Hausdorff and fractal dimensions of the attractor.

  19. Incorporation of the Driver’s Personality Profile in an Agent Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mian Muhammad Mubasher

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Urban traffic flow is a complex system. Behavior of an individual driver can have butterfly effect which can become root cause of an emergent phenomenon such as congestion or accident. Interaction of drivers with each other and the surrounding environment forms the dynamics of traffic flow. Hence global effects of traffic flow depend upon the behavior of each individual driver. Due to several applications of driver models in serious games, urban traffic planning and simulations, study of a realistic driver model is important. Hhence cognitive models of a driver agent are required. In order to address this challenge concepts from cognitive science and psychology are employed to design a computational model of driver cognition which is capable of incorporating law abidance and social norms using big five personality profile.

  20. Incorporating grazing into an eco-hydrologic model: Simulating coupled human and natural systems in rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. J.; Liu, M.; Tague, C.; Choate, J. S.; Evans, R. D.; Johnson, K. A.; Adam, J. C.

    2013-12-01

    Rangelands provide an opportunity to investigate the coupled feedbacks between human activities and natural ecosystems. These areas comprise at least one-third of the Earth's surface and provide ecological support for birds, insects, wildlife and agricultural animals including grazing lands for livestock. Capturing the interactions among water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles within the context of regional scale patterns of climate and management is important to understand interactions, responses, and feedbacks between rangeland systems and humans, as well as provide relevant information to stakeholders and policymakers. The overarching objective of this research is to understand the full consequences, intended and unintended, of human activities and climate over time in rangelands by incorporating dynamics related to rangeland management into an eco-hydrologic model that also incorporates biogeochemical and soil processes. Here we evaluate our model over ungrazed and grazed sites for different rangeland ecosystems. The Regional Hydro-ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) is a process-based, watershed-scale model that couples water with carbon and nitrogen cycles. Climate, soil, vegetation, and management effects within the watershed are represented in a nested landscape hierarchy to account for heterogeneity and the lateral movement of water and nutrients. We incorporated a daily time-series of plant biomass loss from rangeland to represent grazing. The TRY Plant Trait Database was used to parameterize genera of shrubs and grasses in different rangeland types, such as tallgrass prairie, Intermountain West cold desert, and shortgrass steppe. In addition, other model parameters captured the reallocation of carbon and nutrients after grass defoliation. Initial simulations were conducted at the Curlew Valley site in northern Utah, a former International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Desert Biome site. We found that grasses were most sensitive to model parameters affecting

  1. Incorporating microbiota data into epidemiologic models: examples from vaginal microbiota research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Wijgert, Janneke H; Jespers, Vicky

    2016-05-01

    Next generation sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction technologies are now widely available, and research incorporating these methods is growing exponentially. In the vaginal microbiota (VMB) field, most research to date has been descriptive. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of different ways in which next generation sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction data can be used to answer clinical epidemiologic research questions using examples from VMB research. We reviewed relevant methodological literature and VMB articles (published between 2008 and 2015) that incorporated these methodologies. VMB data have been analyzed using ecologic methods, methods that compare the presence or relative abundance of individual taxa or community compositions between different groups of women or sampling time points, and methods that first reduce the complexity of the data into a few variables followed by the incorporation of these variables into traditional biostatistical models. To make future VMB research more clinically relevant (such as studying associations between VMB compositions and clinical outcomes and the effects of interventions on the VMB), it is important that these methods are integrated with rigorous epidemiologic methods (such as appropriate study designs, sampling strategies, and adjustment for confounding). Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Fuzzy Case-Based Reasoning in Product Style Acquisition Incorporating Valence-Arousal-Based Emotional Cellular Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuqian Shi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Emotional cellular (EC, proposed in our previous works, is a kind of semantic cell that contains kernel and shell and the kernel is formalized by a triple- L = , where P denotes a typical set of positive examples relative to word-L, d is a pseudodistance measure on emotional two-dimensional space: valence-arousal, and δ is a probability density function on positive real number field. The basic idea of EC model is to assume that the neighborhood radius of each semantic concept is uncertain, and this uncertainty will be measured by one-dimensional density function δ. In this paper, product form features were evaluated by using ECs and to establish the product style database, fuzzy case based reasoning (FCBR model under a defined similarity measurement based on fuzzy nearest neighbors (FNN incorporating EC was applied to extract product styles. A mathematical formalized inference system for product style was also proposed, and it also includes uncertainty measurement tool emotional cellular. A case study of style acquisition of mobile phones illustrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

  3. Modified permeability modeling of coal incorporating sorption-induced matrix shrinkage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soni, Aman

    The variation in the cleat permeability of coalbed methane (CBM) reservoirs is attributed primarily to two cardinal processes, with opposing effects. Increase in effective stresses with reduction in pore pressure tends to decrease the cleat permeability, whereas the sorption-induced coal matrix shrinkage actuates reduction in the effective stresses which increases the reservoir permeability. The net effect of the two processes determines the pressure-dependent-permeability and, hence, the overall trend of CBM production with depletion. Several analytical models have been developed and used to predict the dynamic behavior of CBM reservoir permeability during production through pressure depletion, all based on combining the two effects. The purpose of this study was to introduce modifications to two most commonly used permeability models, namely the Palmer and Mansoori, and Shi and Durucan, for permeability variation and evaluate their performance when projecting gas production. The basis for the modification is the linear relationship between the volume of sorbed gas and the associated matrix shrinkage. Hence, the impact of matrix shrinkage is incorporated as a function of the amount of gas produced, or that remaining in coal, at any time during production. Since the exact production from a reservoir is known throughout its life, this significantly simplifies the process of permeability modeling. Furthermore, the modification is also expected to streamline the process of modeling by classifying the shrinkage parameters for coals of different regions, but with similar characteristics. A good analogy is the San Juan basin, where sorption characteristics of coal are so well understood and defined that operators no longer carry out laboratory sorption work. The goal is to achieve the same for incorporation of the matrix shrinkage behavior. Another modification is to incorporate the matrix, or grain, compressibility effect of coal as a correction factor in the Shi and

  4. Teaching Genetic Counseling Skills: Incorporating a Genetic Counseling Adaptation Continuum Model to Address Psychosocial Complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugar, Andrea

    2017-04-01

    Genetic counselors are trained health care professionals who effectively integrate both psychosocial counseling and information-giving into their practice. Preparing genetic counseling students for clinical practice is a challenging task, particularly when helping them develop effective and active counseling skills. Resistance to incorporating these skills may stem from decreased confidence, fear of causing harm or a lack of clarity of psycho-social goals. The author reflects on the personal challenges experienced in teaching genetic counselling students to work with psychological and social complexity, and proposes a Genetic Counseling Adaptation Continuum model and methodology to guide students in the use of advanced counseling skills.

  5. Incorporation of detailed eye model into polygon-mesh versions of ICRP-110 reference phantoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thang Tat; Yeom, Yeon Soo; Kim, Han Sung; Wang, Zhao Jun; Han, Min Cheol; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Lee, Jai Ki; Zankl, Maria; Petoussi-Henss, Nina; Bolch, Wesley E; Lee, Choonsik; Chung, Beom Sun

    2015-11-21

    The dose coefficients for the eye lens reported in ICRP 2010 Publication 116 were calculated using both a stylized model and the ICRP-110 reference phantoms, according to the type of radiation, energy, and irradiation geometry. To maintain consistency of lens dose assessment, in the present study we incorporated the ICRP-116 detailed eye model into the converted polygon-mesh (PM) version of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms. After the incorporation, the dose coefficients for the eye lens were calculated and compared with those of the ICRP-116 data. The results showed generally a good agreement between the newly calculated lens dose coefficients and the values of ICRP 2010 Publication 116. Significant differences were found for some irradiation cases due mainly to the use of different types of phantoms. Considering that the PM version of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms preserve the original topology of the ICRP-110 reference phantoms, it is believed that the PM version phantoms, along with the detailed eye model, provide more reliable and consistent dose coefficients for the eye lens.

  6. Improving Estimates of Regional Infrasound Propagation by Incorporating Three-Dimensional Weather Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, M. H.; Alter, R. E.; Swearingen, M. E.; Wilson, D. K.

    2017-12-01

    Many larger sources, such as volcanic eruptions and nuclear detonations, produce infrasound (acoustic waves with a frequency lower than humans can hear, namely 0.1-20 Hz) that can propagate over global scales. But many smaller infrastructure sources, such as bridges, dams, and buildings, also produce infrasound, though with a lower amplitude that tends to propagate only over regional scales (up to 150 km). In order to accurately calculate regional-scale infrasound propagation, we have incorporated high-resolution, three-dimensional forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model into a signal propagation modeling system called Environmental Awareness for Sensor and Emitter Employment (EASEE), developed at the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center. To quantify the improvement of infrasound propagation predictions with more realistic weather data, we conducted sensitivity studies with different propagation ranges and horizontal resolutions and compared them to default predictions with no weather model data. We describe the process of incorporating WRF output into EASEE for conducting these acoustic propagation simulations and present the results of the aforementioned sensitivity studies.

  7. Developing Baltic cod recruitment models II : Incorporation of environmental variability and species interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köster, Fritz; Hinrichsen, H.H.; St. John, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We investigate whether a process-oriented approach based on the results of field, laboratory, and modelling studies can be used to develop a stock-environment-recruitment model for Central Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on exploratory statistical analysis, significant variables influencing...... affecting survival of eggs, predation by clupeids on eggs, larval transport, and cannibalism. Results showed that recruitment in the most important spawning area, the Bornholm Basin, during 1976-1995 was related to egg production; however, other factors affecting survival of the eggs (oxygen conditions......, predation) were also significant and when incorporated explained 69% of the variation in 0-group recruitment. In other spawning areas, variable hydrographic conditions did not allow for regular successful egg development. Hence, relatively simple models proved sufficient to predict recruitment of 0-group...

  8. A Fibrocontractive Mechanochemical Model of Dermal Wound Closure Incorporating Realistic Growth Factor Kinetics

    KAUST Repository

    Murphy, Kelly E.

    2012-01-13

    Fibroblasts and their activated phenotype, myofibroblasts, are the primary cell types involved in the contraction associated with dermal wound healing. Recent experimental evidence indicates that the transformation from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts involves two distinct processes: The cells are stimulated to change phenotype by the combined actions of transforming growth factor β (TGFβ) and mechanical tension. This observation indicates a need for a detailed exploration of the effect of the strong interactions between the mechanical changes and growth factors in dermal wound healing. We review the experimental findings in detail and develop a model of dermal wound healing that incorporates these phenomena. Our model includes the interactions between TGFβ and collagenase, providing a more biologically realistic form for the growth factor kinetics than those included in previous mechanochemical descriptions. A comparison is made between the model predictions and experimental data on human dermal wound healing and all the essential features are well matched. © 2012 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  9. Developing Baltic cod recruitment models II : Incorporation of environmental variability and species interaction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köster, Fritz; Hinrichsen, H.H.; St. John, Michael

    2001-01-01

    We investigate whether a process-oriented approach based on the results of field, laboratory, and modelling studies can be used to develop a stock-environment-recruitment model for Central Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on exploratory statistical analysis, significant variables influencing...... survival of early life stages and varying systematically among spawning sites were incorporated into stock-recruitment models, first for major cod spawning sites and then combined for the entire Central Baltic. Variables identified included potential egg production by the spawning stock, abiotic conditions...... affecting survival of eggs, predation by clupeids on eggs, larval transport, and cannibalism. Results showed that recruitment in the most important spawning area, the Bornholm Basin, during 1976-1995 was related to egg production; however, other factors affecting survival of the eggs (oxygen conditions...

  10. Some considerations concerning the challenge of incorporating social variables into epidemiological models of infectious disease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Tony; Fournié, Guillaume; Gupta, Sunetra; Seeley, Janet

    2015-01-01

    Incorporation of 'social' variables into epidemiological models remains a challenge. Too much detail and models cease to be useful; too little and the very notion of infection - a highly social process in human populations - may be considered with little reference to the social. The French sociologist Émile Durkheim proposed that the scientific study of society required identification and study of 'social currents'. Such 'currents' are what we might today describe as 'emergent properties', specifiable variables appertaining to individuals and groups, which represent the perspectives of social actors as they experience the environment in which they live their lives. Here we review the ways in which one particular emergent property, hope, relevant to a range of epidemiological situations, might be used in epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases in human populations. We also indicate how such an approach might be extended to include a range of other potential emergent properties to represent complex social and economic processes bearing on infectious disease transmission.

  11. Incorporating remote sensing-based ET estimates into the Community Land Model version 4.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dagang; Wang, Guiling; Parr, Dana T.; Liao, Weilin; Xia, Youlong; Fu, Congsheng

    2017-07-01

    Land surface models bear substantial biases in simulating surface water and energy budgets despite the continuous development and improvement of model parameterizations. To reduce model biases, Parr et al. (2015) proposed a method incorporating satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET) products into land surface models. Here we apply this bias correction method to the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and test its performance over the conterminous US (CONUS). We first calibrate a relationship between the observational ET from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) product and the model ET from CLM4.5, and assume that this relationship holds beyond the calibration period. During the validation or application period, a simulation using the default CLM4.5 (CLM) is conducted first, and its output is combined with the calibrated observational-vs.-model ET relationship to derive a corrected ET; an experiment (CLMET) is then conducted in which the model-generated ET is overwritten with the corrected ET. Using the observations of ET, runoff, and soil moisture content as benchmarks, we demonstrate that CLMET greatly improves the hydrological simulations over most of the CONUS, and the improvement is stronger in the eastern CONUS than the western CONUS and is strongest over the Southeast CONUS. For any specific region, the degree of the improvement depends on whether the relationship between observational and model ET remains time-invariant (a fundamental hypothesis of the Parr et al. (2015) method) and whether water is the limiting factor in places where ET is underestimated. While the bias correction method improves hydrological estimates without improving the physical parameterization of land surface models, results from this study do provide guidance for physically based model development effort.

  12. Incorporating herd immunity effects into cohort models of vaccine cost-effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, Chris T; Anonychuk, Andrea M; Van Effelterre, Thierry; Pham, Bá Z; Merid, Maraki Fikre

    2009-01-01

    Cohort models are often used in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of vaccination. However, because they cannot capture herd immunity effects, cohort models underestimate the reduction in incidence caused by vaccination. Dynamic models capture herd immunity effects but are often not adopted in vaccine CEA. The objective was to develop a pseudo-dynamic approximation that can be incorporated into an existing cohort model to capture herd immunity effects. The authors approximated changing force of infection due to universal vaccination for a pediatric infectious disease. The projected lifetime cases in a cohort were compared under 1) a cohort model, 2) a cohort model with pseudo-dynamic approximation, and 3) an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental (dynamic) model. The authors extended the methodology to sexually transmitted infections. For average to high values of vaccine coverage (P > 60%) and small to average values of the basic reproduction number (R(0) vaccination programs for many common infections, the pseudo-dynamic approximation significantly improved projected lifetime cases and was close to projections of the full dynamic model. For large values of R(0) (R(0) > 15), projected lifetime cases were similar under the dynamic model and the cohort model, both with and without pseudo-dynamic approximation. The approximation captures changes in the mean age at infection in the 1st vaccinated cohort. This methodology allows for preliminary assessment of herd immunity effects on CEA of universal vaccination for pediatric infectious diseases. The method requires simple adjustments to an existing cohort model and less data than a full dynamic model.

  13. Incorporating remote sensing-based ET estimates into the Community Land Model version 4.5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models bear substantial biases in simulating surface water and energy budgets despite the continuous development and improvement of model parameterizations. To reduce model biases, Parr et al. (2015 proposed a method incorporating satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET products into land surface models. Here we apply this bias correction method to the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5 and test its performance over the conterminous US (CONUS. We first calibrate a relationship between the observational ET from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM product and the model ET from CLM4.5, and assume that this relationship holds beyond the calibration period. During the validation or application period, a simulation using the default CLM4.5 (CLM is conducted first, and its output is combined with the calibrated observational-vs.-model ET relationship to derive a corrected ET; an experiment (CLMET is then conducted in which the model-generated ET is overwritten with the corrected ET. Using the observations of ET, runoff, and soil moisture content as benchmarks, we demonstrate that CLMET greatly improves the hydrological simulations over most of the CONUS, and the improvement is stronger in the eastern CONUS than the western CONUS and is strongest over the Southeast CONUS. For any specific region, the degree of the improvement depends on whether the relationship between observational and model ET remains time-invariant (a fundamental hypothesis of the Parr et al. (2015 method and whether water is the limiting factor in places where ET is underestimated. While the bias correction method improves hydrological estimates without improving the physical parameterization of land surface models, results from this study do provide guidance for physically based model development effort.

  14. Incorporation of mantle effects in lithospheric stress modeling: the Eurasian plate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruckstuhl, K.; Wortel, M. J. R.; Govers, R.; Meijer, P.

    2009-04-01

    The intraplate stress field is the result of forces acting on the lithosphere and as such contains valuable information on the dynamics of plate tectonics. Studies modeling the intraplate stress field have followed two different approaches, with the emphasis either on the lithosphere itself or the underlying convecting mantle. For most tectonic plates on earth one or both methods have been quiet successful in reproducing the large scale stress field. The Eurasian plate however has remained a challenge. A probable cause is that due to the complexity of the plate successful models require both an active mantle and well defined boundary forces. We therefore construct a model for the Eurasian plate in which we combine both modeling approaches by incorporating the effects of an active mantle in a model based on a lithospheric approach, where boundary forces are modeled explicitly. The assumption that the whole plate is in dynamical equilibrium allows for imposing a torque balance on the plate, which provides extra constraints on the forces that cannot be calculated a priori. Mantle interaction is modeled as a shear at the base of the plate obtained from global mantle flow models from literature. A first order approximation of the increased excess pressure of the anomalous ridge near the Iceland hotspot is incorporated. Results are evaluated by comparison with World Stress Map data. Direct incorporation of the sublithospheric stresses from mantle flow modeling in our force model is not possible, due to a discrepancy in the magnitude of the integrated mantle shear and lithospheric forces of around one order of magnitude, prohibiting balance of the torques. This magnitude discrepancy is a well known fundamental problem in geodynamics and we choose to close the gap between the two different approaches by scaling down the absolute magnitude of the sublithospheric stresses. Becker and O'Connell (G3,2,2001) showed that various mantle flow models show a considerable spread in

  15. Reliability modelling of redundant safety systems without automatic diagnostics incorporating common cause failures and process demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh, Siamak; Sriramula, Srinivas

    2017-11-01

    Redundant safety systems are commonly used in the process industry to respond to hazardous events. In redundant systems composed of identical units, Common Cause Failures (CCFs) can significantly influence system performance with regards to reliability and safety. However, their impact has been overlooked due to the inherent complexity of modelling common cause induced failures. This article develops a reliability model for a redundant safety system using Markov analysis approach. The proposed model incorporates process demands in conjunction with CCF for the first time and evaluates their impacts on the reliability quantification of safety systems without automatic diagnostics. The reliability of the Markov model is quantified by considering the Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD) as a measure for low demand systems. The safety performance of the model is analysed using Hazardous Event Frequency (HEF) to evaluate the frequency of entering a hazardous state that will lead to an accident if the situation is not controlled. The utilisation of Markov model for a simple case study of a pressure protection system is demonstrated and it is shown that the proposed approach gives a sufficiently accurate result for all demand rates, durations, component failure rates and corresponding repair rates for low demand mode of operation. The Markov model proposed in this paper assumes the absence of automatic diagnostics, along with multiple stage repair strategy for CCFs and restoration of the system from hazardous state to the "as good as new" state. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Fuzzy Logic-Based Model That Incorporates Personality Traits for Heterogeneous Pedestrians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuxin Xue

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Most models designed to simulate pedestrian dynamical behavior are based on the assumption that human decision-making can be described using precise values. This study proposes a new pedestrian model that incorporates fuzzy logic theory into a multi-agent system to address cognitive behavior that introduces uncertainty and imprecision during decision-making. We present a concept of decision preferences to represent the intrinsic control factors of decision-making. To realize the different decision preferences of heterogeneous pedestrians, the Five-Factor (OCEAN personality model is introduced to model the psychological characteristics of individuals. Then, a fuzzy logic-based approach is adopted for mapping the relationships between the personality traits and the decision preferences. Finally, we have developed an application using our model to simulate pedestrian dynamical behavior in several normal or non-panic scenarios, including a single-exit room, a hallway with obstacles, and a narrowing passage. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated with a user study. The results show that the proposed model can generate more reasonable and heterogeneous behavior in the simulation and indicate that individual personality has a noticeable effect on pedestrian dynamical behavior.

  17. Incorporating vehicle mix in stimulus-response car-following models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saidi Siuhi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to incorporate vehicle mix in stimulus-response car-following models. Separate models were estimated for acceleration and deceleration responses to account for vehicle mix via both movement state and vehicle type. For each model, three sub-models were developed for different pairs of following vehicles including “automobile following automobile,” “automobile following truck,” and “truck following automobile.” The estimated model parameters were then validated against other data from a similar region and roadway. The results indicated that drivers' behaviors were significantly different among the different pairs of following vehicles. Also the magnitude of the estimated parameters depends on the type of vehicle being driven and/or followed. These results demonstrated the need to use separate models depending on movement state and vehicle type. The differences in parameter estimates confirmed in this paper highlight traffic safety and operational issues of mixed traffic operation on a single lane. The findings of this paper can assist transportation professionals to improve traffic simulation models used to evaluate the impact of different strategies on ameliorate safety and performance of highways. In addition, driver response time lag estimates can be used in roadway design to calculate important design parameters such as stopping sight distance on horizontal and vertical curves for both automobiles and trucks.

  18. A constitutive mechanical model for gas hydrate bearing sediments incorporating inelastic mechanisms

    KAUST Repository

    Sánchez, Marcelo

    2016-11-30

    Gas hydrate bearing sediments (HBS) are natural soils formed in permafrost and sub-marine settings where the temperature and pressure conditions are such that gas hydrates are stable. If these conditions shift from the hydrate stability zone, hydrates dissociate and move from the solid to the gas phase. Hydrate dissociation is accompanied by significant changes in sediment structure and strongly affects its mechanical behavior (e.g., sediment stiffenss, strength and dilatancy). The mechanical behavior of HBS is very complex and its modeling poses great challenges. This paper presents a new geomechanical model for hydrate bearing sediments. The model incorporates the concept of partition stress, plus a number of inelastic mechanisms proposed to capture the complex behavior of this type of soil. This constitutive model is especially well suited to simulate the behavior of HBS upon dissociation. The model was applied and validated against experimental data from triaxial and oedometric tests conducted on manufactured and natural specimens involving different hydrate saturation, hydrate morphology, and confinement conditions. Particular attention was paid to model the HBS behavior during hydrate dissociation under loading. The model performance was highly satisfactory in all the cases studied. It managed to properly capture the main features of HBS mechanical behavior and it also assisted to interpret the behavior of this type of sediment under different loading and hydrate conditions.

  19. Advanced Methods for Incorporating Solar Energy Technologies into Electric Sector Capacity-Expansion Models: Literature Review and Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, P.; Eurek, K.; Margolis, R.

    2014-07-01

    Because solar power is a rapidly growing component of the electricity system, robust representations of solar technologies should be included in capacity-expansion models. This is a challenge because modeling the electricity system--and, in particular, modeling solar integration within that system--is a complex endeavor. This report highlights the major challenges of incorporating solar technologies into capacity-expansion models and shows examples of how specific models address those challenges. These challenges include modeling non-dispatchable technologies, determining which solar technologies to model, choosing a spatial resolution, incorporating a solar resource assessment, and accounting for solar generation variability and uncertainty.

  20. Incorporating uncertainty of management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomon, Yacov; McCarthy, Michael A; Taylor, Peter; Wintle, Brendan A

    2013-02-01

    The importance of accounting for economic costs when making environmental-management decisions subject to resource constraints has been increasingly recognized in recent years. In contrast, uncertainty associated with such costs has often been ignored. We developed a method, on the basis of economic theory, that accounts for the uncertainty in population-management decisions. We considered the case where, rather than taking fixed values, model parameters are random variables that represent the situation when parameters are not precisely known. Hence, the outcome is not precisely known either. Instead of maximizing the expected outcome, we maximized the probability of obtaining an outcome above a threshold of acceptability. We derived explicit analytical expressions for the optimal allocation and its associated probability, as a function of the threshold of acceptability, where the model parameters were distributed according to normal and uniform distributions. To illustrate our approach we revisited a previous study that incorporated cost-efficiency analyses in management decisions that were based on perturbation analyses of matrix population models. Incorporating derivations from this study into our framework, we extended the model to address potential uncertainties. We then applied these results to 2 case studies: management of a Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population and conservation of an olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) population. For low aspirations, that is, when the threshold of acceptability is relatively low, the optimal strategy was obtained by diversifying the allocation of funds. Conversely, for high aspirations, the budget was directed toward management actions with the highest potential effect on the population. The exact optimal allocation was sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty when making decisions and suggest that more effort should be placed on

  1. Discontinuous Galerkin Time-Domain Modeling of Graphene Nano-Ribbon Incorporating the Spatial Dispersion Effects

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Ping

    2018-04-13

    It is well known that graphene demonstrates spatial dispersion properties, i.e., its conductivity is nonlocal and a function of spectral wave number (momentum operator) q. In this paper, to account for effects of spatial dispersion on transmission of high speed signals along graphene nano-ribbon (GNR) interconnects, a discontinuous Galerkin time-domain (DGTD) algorithm is proposed. The atomically-thick GNR is modeled using a nonlocal transparent surface impedance boundary condition (SIBC) incorporated into the DGTD scheme. Since the conductivity is a complicated function of q (and one cannot find an analytical Fourier transform pair between q and spatial differential operators), an exact time domain SIBC model cannot be derived. To overcome this problem, the conductivity is approximated by its Taylor series in spectral domain under low-q assumption. This approach permits expressing the time domain SIBC in the form of a second-order partial differential equation (PDE) in current density and electric field intensity. To permit easy incorporation of this PDE with the DGTD algorithm, three auxiliary variables, which degenerate the second-order (temporal and spatial) differential operators to first-order ones, are introduced. Regarding to the temporal dispersion effects, the auxiliary differential equation (ADE) method is utilized to eliminates the expensive temporal convolutions. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed scheme, numerical results, which involve characterization of spatial dispersion effects on the transfer impedance matrix of GNR interconnects, are presented.

  2. Incorporating and Compensating Cerebrospinal Fluid in Surface-Based Forward Models of Magneto- and Electroencephalography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matti Stenroos

    Full Text Available MEG/EEG source imaging is usually done using a three-shell (3-S or a simpler head model. Such models omit cerebrospinal fluid (CSF that strongly affects the volume currents. We present a four-compartment (4-C boundary-element (BEM model that incorporates the CSF and is computationally efficient and straightforward to build using freely available software. We propose a way for compensating the omission of CSF by decreasing the skull conductivity of the 3-S model, and study the robustness of the 4-C and 3-S models to errors in skull conductivity. We generated dense boundary meshes using MRI datasets and automated SimNIBS pipeline. Then, we built a dense 4-C reference model using Galerkin BEM, and 4-C and 3-S test models using coarser meshes and both Galerkin and collocation BEMs. We compared field topographies of cortical sources, applying various skull conductivities and fitting conductivities that minimized the relative error in 4-C and 3-S models. When the CSF was left out from the EEG model, our compensated, unbiased approach improved the accuracy of the 3-S model considerably compared to the conventional approach, where CSF is neglected without any compensation (mean relative error 40%. The error due to the omission of CSF was of the same order in MEG and compensated EEG. EEG has, however, large overall error due to uncertain skull conductivity. Our results show that a realistic 4-C MEG/EEG model can be implemented using standard tools and basic BEM, without excessive workload or computational burden. If the CSF is omitted, compensated skull conductivity should be used in EEG.

  3. A MULTI-RESOLUTION FUSION MODEL INCORPORATING COLOR AND ELEVATION FOR SEMANTIC SEGMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zhang

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the developments for Fully Convolutional Networks (FCN have led to great improvements for semantic segmentation in various applications including fused remote sensing data. There is, however, a lack of an in-depth study inside FCN models which would lead to an understanding of the contribution of individual layers to specific classes and their sensitivity to different types of input data. In this paper, we address this problem and propose a fusion model incorporating infrared imagery and Digital Surface Models (DSM for semantic segmentation. The goal is to utilize heterogeneous data more accurately and effectively in a single model instead of to assemble multiple models. First, the contribution and sensitivity of layers concerning the given classes are quantified by means of their recall in FCN. The contribution of different modalities on the pixel-wise prediction is then analyzed based on visualization. Finally, an optimized scheme for the fusion of layers with color and elevation information into a single FCN model is derived based on the analysis. Experiments are performed on the ISPRS Vaihingen 2D Semantic Labeling dataset. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

  4. Modelling and Simulation of a Manipulator with Stable Viscoelastic Grasping Incorporating Friction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Khurshid

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Design, dynamics and control of a humanoid robotic hand based on anthropological dimensions, with joint friction, is modelled, simulated and analysed in this paper by using computer aided design and multibody dynamic simulation. Combined joint friction model is incorporated in the joints. Experimental values of coefficient of friction of grease lubricated sliding contacts representative of manipulator joints are presented. Human fingers deform to the shape of the grasped object (enveloping grasp at the area of interaction. A mass-spring-damper model of the grasp is developed. The interaction of the viscoelastic gripper of the arm with objects is analysed by using Bond Graph modelling method. Simulations were conducted for several material parameters. These results of the simulation are then used to develop a prototype of the proposed gripper. Bond graph model is experimentally validated by using the prototype. The gripper is used to successfully transport soft and fragile objects. This paper provides information on optimisation of friction and its inclusion in both dynamic modelling and simulation to enhance mechanical efficiency.

  5. Developing a stochastic parameterization to incorporate plant trait variability into ecohydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.; Ng, G. H. C.

    2017-12-01

    The global plant database has revealed that plant traits can vary more within a plant functional type (PFT) than among different PFTs, indicating that the current paradigm in ecohydrogical models of specifying fixed parameters based solely on plant functional type (PFT) could potentially bias simulations. Although some recent modeling studies have attempted to incorporate this observed plant trait variability, many failed to consider uncertainties due to sparse global observation, or they omitted spatial and/or temporal variability in the traits. Here we present a stochastic parameterization for prognostic vegetation simulations that are stochastic in time and space in order to represent plant trait plasticity - the process by which trait differences arise. We have developed the new PFT parameterization within the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM 4.5) and tested the method for a desert shrubland watershed in the Mojave Desert, where fixed parameterizations cannot represent acclimation to desert conditions. Spatiotemporally correlated plant trait parameters were first generated based on TRY statistics and were then used to implement ensemble runs for the study area. The new PFT parameterization was then further conditioned on field measurements of soil moisture and remotely sensed observations of leaf-area-index to constrain uncertainties in the sparse global database. Our preliminary results show that incorporating data-conditioned, variable PFT parameterizations strongly affects simulated soil moisture and water fluxes, compared with default simulations. The results also provide new insights about correlations among plant trait parameters and between traits and environmental conditions in the desert shrubland watershed. Our proposed stochastic PFT parameterization method for ecohydrological models has great potential in advancing our understanding of how terrestrial ecosystems are predicted to adapt to variable environmental conditions.

  6. Incorporating Social System Dynamics into the Food-Energy-Water System Resilience-Sustainability Modeling Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Givens, J.; Padowski, J.; Malek, K.; Guzman, C.; Boll, J.; Adam, J. C.; Witinok-Huber, R.

    2017-12-01

    In the face of climate change and multi-scalar governance objectives, achieving resilience of food-energy-water (FEW) systems requires interdisciplinary approaches. Through coordinated modeling and management efforts, we study "Innovations in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (INFEWS)" through a case-study in the Columbia River Basin. Previous research on FEW system management and resilience includes some attention to social dynamics (e.g., economic, governance); however, more research is needed to better address social science perspectives. Decisions ultimately taken in this river basin would occur among stakeholders encompassing various institutional power structures including multiple U.S. states, tribal lands, and sovereign nations. The social science lens draws attention to the incompatibility between the engineering definition of resilience (i.e., return to equilibrium or a singular stable state) and the ecological and social system realities, more explicit in the ecological interpretation of resilience (i.e., the ability of a system to move into a different, possibly more resilient state). Social science perspectives include but are not limited to differing views on resilience as normative, system persistence versus transformation, and system boundary issues. To expand understanding of resilience and objectives for complex and dynamic systems, concepts related to inequality, heterogeneity, power, agency, trust, values, culture, history, conflict, and system feedbacks must be more tightly integrated into FEW research. We identify gaps in knowledge and data, and the value and complexity of incorporating social components and processes into systems models. We posit that socio-biophysical system resilience modeling would address important complex, dynamic social relationships, including non-linear dynamics of social interactions, to offer an improved understanding of sustainable management in FEW systems. Conceptual modeling that is presented in our study, represents

  7. A Loudness Model for Time-Varying Sounds Incorporating Binaural Inhibition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian C. J. Moore

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This article describes a model of loudness for time-varying sounds that incorporates the concept of binaural inhibition, namely, that the signal applied to one ear can reduce the internal response to a signal at the other ear. For each ear, the model includes the following: a filter to allow for the effects of transfer of sound through the outer and middle ear; a short-term spectral analysis with greater frequency resolution at low than at high frequencies; calculation of an excitation pattern, representing the magnitudes of the outputs of the auditory filters as a function of center frequency; application of a compressive nonlinearity to the output of each auditory filter; and smoothing over time of the resulting instantaneous specific loudness pattern using an averaging process resembling an automatic gain control. The resulting short-term specific loudness patterns are used to calculate broadly tuned binaural inhibition functions, the amount of inhibition depending on the relative short-term specific loudness at the two ears. The inhibited specific loudness patterns are summed across frequency to give an estimate of the short-term loudness for each ear. The overall short-term loudness is calculated as the sum of the short-term loudness values for the two ears. The long-term loudness for each ear is calculated by smoothing the short-term loudness for that ear, again by a process resembling automatic gain control, and the overall loudness impression is obtained by summing the long-term loudness across ears. The predictions of the model are more accurate than those of an earlier model that did not incorporate binaural inhibition.

  8. A model to incorporate organ deformation in the evaluation of dose/volume relationship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, D.; Jaffray, D.; Wong, J.; Brabbins, D.; Martinez, A. A.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: Measurements of internal organ motion have demonstrated that daily organ deformation exists during the course of radiation treatment. However, a model to evaluate the resultant dose delivered to a daily deformed organ remains a difficult challenge. Current methods which model such organ deformation as rigid body motion in the dose calculation for treatment planning evaluation are incorrect and misleading. In this study, a new model for treatment planning evaluation is introduced which incorporates patient specific information of daily organ deformation and setup variation. The model was also used to retrospectively analyze the actual treatment data measured using daily CT scans for 5 patients with prostate treatment. Methods and Materials: The model assumes that for each patient, the organ of interest can be measured during the first few treatment days. First, the volume of each organ is delineated from each of the daily measurements and cumulated in a 3D bit-map. A tissue occupancy distribution is then constructed with the 50% isodensity representing the mean, or effective, organ volume. During the course of treatment, each voxel in the effective organ volume is assumed to move inside a local 3D neighborhood with a specific distribution function. The neighborhood and the distribution function are deduced from the positions and shapes of the organ in the first few measurements using the biomechanics model of viscoelastic body. For each voxel, the local distribution function is then convolved with the spatial dose distribution. The latter includes also the variation in dose due to daily setup error. As a result, the cumulative dose to the voxel incorporates the effects of daily setup variation and organ deformation. A ''variation adjusted'' dose volume histogram, aDVH, for the effective organ volume can then be constructed for the purpose of treatment evaluation and optimization. Up to 20 daily CT scans and daily portal images for 5 patients with prostate

  9. Simulation of Forest Carbon Fluxes Using Model Incorporation and Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Yan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study improved simulation of forest carbon fluxes in the Changbai Mountains with a process-based model (Biome-BGC using incorporation and data assimilation. Firstly, the original remote sensing-based MODIS MOD_17 GPP (MOD_17 model was optimized using refined input data and biome-specific parameters. The key ecophysiological parameters of the Biome-BGC model were determined through the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST sensitivity analysis. Then the optimized MOD_17 model was used to calibrate the Biome-BGC model by adjusting the sensitive ecophysiological parameters. Once the best match was found for the 10 selected forest plots for the 8-day GPP estimates from the optimized MOD_17 and from the Biome-BGC, the values of sensitive ecophysiological parameters were determined. The calibrated Biome-BGC model agreed better with the eddy covariance (EC measurements (R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 1.583 gC·m−2·d−1 than the original model did (R2 = 0.72, RMSE = 2.419 gC·m−2·d−1. To provide a best estimate of the true state of the model, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF was used to assimilate five years (of eight-day periods between 2003 and 2007 of Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS LAI products into the calibrated Biome-BGC model. The results indicated that LAI simulated through the assimilated Biome-BGC agreed well with GLASS LAI. GPP performances obtained from the assimilated Biome-BGC were further improved and verified by EC measurements at the Changbai Mountains forest flux site (R2 = 0.92, RMSE = 1.261 gC·m−2·d−1.

  10. Representation and Incorporation of Close Others' Responses: The RICOR Model of Social Influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eliot R; Mackie, Diane M

    2015-08-03

    We propose a new model of social influence, which can occur spontaneously and in the absence of typically assumed motives. We assume that perceivers routinely construct representations of other people's experiences and responses (beliefs, attitudes, emotions, and behaviors), when observing others' responses or simulating the responses of unobserved others. Like representations made accessible by priming, these representations may then influence the process that generates perceivers' own responses, without intention or awareness, especially when there is a strong social connection to the other. We describe evidence for the basic properties and important moderators of this process, which distinguish it from other mechanisms such as informational, normative, or social identity influence. The model offers new perspectives on the role of others' values in producing cultural differences, the persistence and power of stereotypes, the adaptive reasons for being influenced by others' responses, and the impact of others' views about the self. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  11. Effect of Control-released Basic Fibroblast Growth Factor Incorporated in β-Tricalcium Phosphate for Murine Cranial Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azusa Shimizu, MD

    2014-03-01

    Conclusions: These findings suggest that control-released bFGF incorporated in β-TCP can accelerate bone regeneration in the murine cranial defect model and may be promising for the clinical treatment of cranial defects.

  12. Incorporating plant fossil data into species distribution models is not straightforward: Pitfalls and possible solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Amat, Elena; Rubiales, Juan Manuel; Morales-Molino, César; García-Amorena, Ignacio

    2017-08-01

    The increasing development of species distribution models (SDMs) using palaeodata has created new prospects to address questions of evolution, ecology and biogeography from wider perspectives. Palaeobotanical data provide information on the past distribution of taxa at a given time and place and its incorporation on modelling has contributed to advancing the SDM field. This has allowed, for example, to calibrate models under past climate conditions or to validate projected models calibrated on current species distributions. However, these data also bear certain shortcomings when used in SDMs that may hinder the resulting ecological outcomes and eventually lead to misleading conclusions. Palaeodata may not be equivalent to present data, but instead frequently exhibit limitations and biases regarding species representation, taxonomy and chronological control, and their inclusion in SDMs should be carefully assessed. The limitations of palaeobotanical data applied to SDM studies are infrequently discussed and often neglected in the modelling literature; thus, we argue for the more careful selection and control of these data. We encourage authors to use palaeobotanical data in their SDMs studies and for doing so, we propose some recommendations to improve the robustness, reliability and significance of palaeo-SDM analyses.

  13. Energy system investment model incorporating heat pumps with thermal storage in buildings and buffer tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Balyk, Olexandr

    2013-01-01

    Individual compression heat pumps constitute a potentially valuable resource in supporting wind power integration due to their economic competitiveness and possibilities for flexible operation. When analysing the system benefits of flexible heat pump operation, effects on investments should be taken into account. In this study, we present a model that facilitates analysing individual heat pumps and complementing heat storages in integration with the energy system, while optimising both investments and operation. The model incorporates thermal building dynamics and covers various heat storage options: passive heat storage in the building structure via radiator heating, active heat storage in concrete floors via floor heating, and use of thermal storage tanks for space heating and hot water. It is shown that the model is well qualified for analysing possibilities and system benefits of operating heat pumps flexibly. This includes prioritising heat pump operation for hours with low marginal electricity production costs, and peak load shaving resulting in a reduced need for peak and reserve capacity investments. - Highlights: • Model optimising heat pumps and heat storages in integration with the energy system. • Optimisation of both energy system investments and operation. • Heat storage in building structure and thermal storage tanks included. • Model well qualified for analysing system benefits of flexible heat pump operation. • Covers peak load shaving and operation prioritised for low electricity prices

  14. A General Framework for Incorporating Stochastic Recovery in Structural Models of Credit Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert Cohen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we introduce a general framework for incorporating stochastic recovery into structural models. The framework extends the approach to recovery modeling developed in Cohen and Costanzino (2015, 2017 and provides for a systematic way to include different recovery processes into a structural credit model. The key observation is a connection between the partial information gap between firm manager and the market that is captured via a distortion of the probability of default. This last feature is computed by what is essentially a Girsanov transformation and reflects untangling of the recovery process from the default probability. Our framework can be thought of as an extension of Ishizaka and Takaoka (2003 and, in the same spirit of their work, we provide several examples of the framework including bounded recovery and a jump-to-zero model. One of the nice features of our framework is that, given prices from any one-factor structural model, we provide a systematic way to compute corresponding prices with stochastic recovery. The framework also provides a way to analyze correlation between Probability of Default (PD and Loss Given Default (LGD, and term structure of recovery rates.

  15. a Maximum Entropy Model of the Bearded Capuchin Monkey Habitat Incorporating Topography and Spectral Unmixing Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Bernardes, S.; Nibbelink, N.; Biondi, L.; Presotto, A.; Fragaszy, D. M.; Madden, M.

    2012-07-01

    Movement patterns of bearded capuchin monkeys (Cebus (Sapajus) libidinosus) in northeastern Brazil are likely impacted by environmental features such as elevation, vegetation density, or vegetation type. Habitat preferences of these monkeys provide insights regarding the impact of environmental features on species ecology and the degree to which they incorporate these features in movement decisions. In order to evaluate environmental features influencing movement patterns and predict areas suitable for movement, we employed a maximum entropy modelling approach, using observation points along capuchin monkey daily routes as species presence points. We combined these presence points with spatial data on important environmental features from remotely sensed data on land cover and topography. A spectral mixing analysis procedure was used to generate fraction images that represent green vegetation, shade and soil of the study area. A Landsat Thematic Mapper scene of the area of study was geometrically and atmospherically corrected and used as input in a Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) procedure and a linear spectral unmixing approach was used to generate the fraction images. These fraction images and elevation were the environmental layer inputs for our logistic MaxEnt model of capuchin movement. Our models' predictive power (test AUC) was 0.775. Areas of high elevation (>450 m) showed low probabilities of presence, and percent green vegetation was the greatest overall contributor to model AUC. This work has implications for predicting daily movement patterns of capuchins in our field site, as suitability values from our model may relate to habitat preference and facility of movement.

  16. Incorporating social groups' responses in a descriptive model for second- and higher-order impact identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutheerawatthana, Pitch; Minato, Takayuki

    2010-01-01

    The response of a social group is a missing element in the formal impact assessment model. Previous discussion of the involvement of social groups in an intervention has mainly focused on the formation of the intervention. This article discusses the involvement of social groups in a different way. A descriptive model is proposed by incorporating a social group's response into the concept of second- and higher-order effects. The model is developed based on a cause-effect relationship through the observation of phenomena in case studies. The model clarifies the process by which social groups interact with a lower-order effect and then generate a higher-order effect in an iterative manner. This study classifies social groups' responses into three forms-opposing, modifying, and advantage-taking action-and places them in six pathways. The model is expected to be used as an analytical tool for investigating and identifying impacts in the planning stage and as a framework for monitoring social groups' responses during the implementation stage of a policy, plan, program, or project (PPPPs).

  17. Point defect reduction in MOCVD (Al)GaN by chemical potential control and a comprehensive model of C incorporation in GaN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Pramod; Washiyama, Shun; Kaess, Felix; Kirste, Ronny; Mita, Seiji; Collazo, Ramon; Sitar, Zlatko

    2017-12-01

    A theoretical framework that provides a quantitative relationship between point defect formation energies and growth process parameters is presented. It enables systematic point defect reduction by chemical potential control in metalorganic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) of III-nitrides. Experimental corroboration is provided by a case study of C incorporation in GaN. The theoretical model is shown to be successful in providing quantitative predictions of CN defect incorporation in GaN as a function of growth parameters and provides valuable insights into boundary phases and other impurity chemical reactions. The metal supersaturation is found to be the primary factor in determining the chemical potential of III/N and consequently incorporation or formation of point defects which involves exchange of III or N atoms with the reservoir. The framework is general and may be extended to other defect systems in (Al)GaN. The utility of equilibrium formalism typically employed in density functional theory in predicting defect incorporation in non-equilibrium and high temperature MOCVD growth is confirmed. Furthermore, the proposed theoretical framework may be used to determine optimal growth conditions to achieve minimum compensation within any given constraints such as growth rate, crystal quality, and other practical system limitations.

  18. Petroacoustic Modelling of Heterolithic Sandstone Reservoirs: A Novel Approach to Gassmann Modelling Incorporating Sedimentological Constraints and NMR Porosity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, S.; Lovell, M.; Davies, S. J.; Pritchard, T.; Sirju, C.; Abdelkarim, A.

    2012-12-01

    Heterolithic or 'shaly' sandstone reservoirs constitute a significant proportion of hydrocarbon resources. Petroacoustic models (a combination of petrophysics and rock physics) enhance the ability to extract reservoir properties from seismic data, providing a connection between seismic and fine-scale rock properties. By incorporating sedimentological observations these models can be better constrained and improved. Petroacoustic modelling is complicated by the unpredictable effects of clay minerals and clay-sized particles on geophysical properties. Such effects are responsible for erroneous results when models developed for "clean" reservoirs - such as Gassmann's equation (Gassmann, 1951) - are applied to heterolithic sandstone reservoirs. Gassmann's equation is arguably the most popular petroacoustic modelling technique in the hydrocarbon industry and is used to model elastic effects of changing reservoir fluid saturations. Successful implementation of Gassmann's equation requires well-constrained drained rock frame properties, which in heterolithic sandstones are heavily influenced by reservoir sedimentology, particularly clay distribution. The prevalent approach to categorising clay distribution is based on the Thomas - Stieber model (Thomas & Stieber, 1975), this approach is inconsistent with current understanding of 'shaly sand' sedimentology and omits properties such as sorting and grain size. The novel approach presented here demonstrates that characterising reservoir sedimentology constitutes an important modelling phase. As well as incorporating sedimentological constraints, this novel approach also aims to improve drained frame moduli estimates through more careful consideration of Gassmann's model assumptions and limitations. A key assumption of Gassmann's equation is a pore space in total communication with movable fluids. This assumption is often violated by conventional applications in heterolithic sandstone reservoirs where effective porosity, which

  19. Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating

  20. A generalized linear-quadratic model incorporating reciprocal time pattern of radiation damage repair

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Zhibin; Mayr, Nina A.; Lo, Simon S.; Wang, Jian Z.; Jia Guang; Yuh, William T. C.; Johnke, Roberta

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: It has been conventionally assumed that the repair rate for sublethal damage (SLD) remains constant during the entire radiation course. However, increasing evidence from animal studies suggest that this may not the case. Rather, it appears that the repair rate for radiation-induced SLD slows down with increasing time. Such a slowdown in repair would suggest that the exponential repair pattern would not necessarily accurately predict repair process. As a result, the purpose of this study was to investigate a new generalized linear-quadratic (LQ) model incorporating a repair pattern with reciprocal time. The new formulas were tested with published experimental data. Methods: The LQ model has been widely used in radiation therapy, and the parameter G in the surviving fraction represents the repair process of sublethal damage with T r as the repair half-time. When a reciprocal pattern of repair process was adopted, a closed form of G was derived analytically for arbitrary radiation schemes. The published animal data adopted to test the reciprocal formulas. Results: A generalized LQ model to describe the repair process in a reciprocal pattern was obtained. Subsequently, formulas for special cases were derived from this general form. The reciprocal model showed a better fit to the animal data than the exponential model, particularly for the ED50 data (reduced χ 2 min of 2.0 vs 4.3, p = 0.11 vs 0.006), with the following gLQ parameters: α/β = 2.6-4.8 Gy, T r = 3.2-3.9 h for rat feet skin, and α/β = 0.9 Gy, T r = 1.1 h for rat spinal cord. Conclusions: These results of repair process following a reciprocal time suggest that the generalized LQ model incorporating the reciprocal time of sublethal damage repair shows a better fit than the exponential repair model. These formulas can be used to analyze the experimental and clinical data, where a slowing-down repair process appears during the course of radiation therapy.

  1. A generalized linear-quadratic model incorporating reciprocal time pattern of radiation damage repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhibin; Mayr, Nina A; Lo, Simon S; Wang, Jian Z; Jia, Guang; Yuh, William T C; Johnke, Roberta

    2012-01-01

    It has been conventionally assumed that the repair rate for sublethal damage (SLD) remains constant during the entire radiation course. However, increasing evidence from animal studies suggest that this may not the case. Rather, it appears that the repair rate for radiation-induced SLD slows down with increasing time. Such a slowdown in repair would suggest that the exponential repair pattern would not necessarily accurately predict repair process. As a result, the purpose of this study was to investigate a new generalized linear-quadratic (LQ) model incorporating a repair pattern with reciprocal time. The new formulas were tested with published experimental data. The LQ model has been widely used in radiation therapy, and the parameter G in the surviving fraction represents the repair process of sublethal damage with T(r) as the repair half-time. When a reciprocal pattern of repair process was adopted, a closed form of G was derived analytically for arbitrary radiation schemes. The published animal data adopted to test the reciprocal formulas. A generalized LQ model to describe the repair process in a reciprocal pattern was obtained. Subsequently, formulas for special cases were derived from this general form. The reciprocal model showed a better fit to the animal data than the exponential model, particularly for the ED50 data (reduced χ(2) (min) of 2.0 vs 4.3, p = 0.11 vs 0.006), with the following gLQ parameters: α/β = 2.6-4.8 Gy, T(r) = 3.2-3.9 h for rat feet skin, and α/β = 0.9 Gy, T(r) = 1.1 h for rat spinal cord. These results of repair process following a reciprocal time suggest that the generalized LQ model incorporating the reciprocal time of sublethal damage repair shows a better fit than the exponential repair model. These formulas can be used to analyze the experimental and clinical data, where a slowing-down repair process appears during the course of radiation therapy.

  2. Personalized Prognostic Prediction Models for Breast Cancer Recurrence and Survival Incorporating Multidimensional Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xifeng; Ye, Yuanqing; Barcenas, Carlos H; Chow, Wong-Ho; Meng, Qing H; Chavez-MacGregor, Mariana; Hildebrandt, Michelle A T; Zhao, Hua; Gu, Xiangjun; Deng, Yang; Wagar, Elizabeth; Esteva, Francisco J; Tripathy, Debu; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N

    2017-07-01

    In this study, we developed integrative, personalized prognostic models for breast cancer recurrence and overall survival (OS) that consider receptor subtypes, epidemiological data, quality of life (QoL), and treatment. A total of 15 314 women with stage I to III invasive primary breast cancer treated at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center between 1997 and 2012 were used to generate prognostic models by Cox regression analysis in a two-stage study. Model performance was assessed by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration analysis and compared with Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and PREDICT. Host characteristics were assessed for 10 809 women as the discovery population (median follow-up = 6.09 years, 1144 recurrence and 1627 deaths) and 4505 women as the validation population (median follow-up = 7.95 years, 684 recurrence and 1095 deaths). In addition to the known clinical/pathological variables, the model for recurrence included alcohol consumption while the model for OS included smoking status and physical component summary score. The AUCs for recurrence and OS were 0.813 and 0.810 in the discovery and 0.807 and 0.803 in the validation, respectively, compared with AUCs of 0.761 and 0.753 in discovery and 0.777 and 0.751 in validation for NPI. Our model further showed better calibration compared with PREDICT. We also developed race-specific and receptor subtype-specific models with comparable AUCs. Racial disparity was evident in the distributions of many risk factors and clinical presentation of the disease. Our integrative prognostic models for breast cancer exhibit high discriminatory accuracy and excellent calibration and are the first to incorporate receptor subtype and epidemiological and QoL data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. A neural population model incorporating dopaminergic neurotransmission during complex voluntary behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Fürtinger

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Assessing brain activity during complex voluntary motor behaviors that require the recruitment of multiple neural sites is a field of active research. Our current knowledge is primarily based on human brain imaging studies that have clear limitations in terms of temporal and spatial resolution. We developed a physiologically informed non-linear multi-compartment stochastic neural model to simulate functional brain activity coupled with neurotransmitter release during complex voluntary behavior, such as speech production. Due to its state-dependent modulation of neural firing, dopaminergic neurotransmission plays a key role in the organization of functional brain circuits controlling speech and language and thus has been incorporated in our neural population model. A rigorous mathematical proof establishing existence and uniqueness of solutions to the proposed model as well as a computationally efficient strategy to numerically approximate these solutions are presented. Simulated brain activity during the resting state and sentence production was analyzed using functional network connectivity, and graph theoretical techniques were employed to highlight differences between the two conditions. We demonstrate that our model successfully reproduces characteristic changes seen in empirical data between the resting state and speech production, and dopaminergic neurotransmission evokes pronounced changes in modeled functional connectivity by acting on the underlying biological stochastic neural model. Specifically, model and data networks in both speech and rest conditions share task-specific network features: both the simulated and empirical functional connectivity networks show an increase in nodal influence and segregation in speech over the resting state. These commonalities confirm that dopamine is a key neuromodulator of the functional connectome of speech control. Based on reproducible characteristic aspects of empirical data, we suggest a number

  4. Incorporation of caffeine into a quantitative model of fatigue and sleep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puckeridge, M; Fulcher, B D; Phillips, A J K; Robinson, P A

    2011-03-21

    A recent physiologically based model of human sleep is extended to incorporate the effects of caffeine on sleep-wake timing and fatigue. The model includes the sleep-active neurons of the hypothalamic ventrolateral preoptic area (VLPO), the wake-active monoaminergic brainstem populations (MA), their interactions with cholinergic/orexinergic (ACh/Orx) input to MA, and circadian and homeostatic drives. We model two effects of caffeine on the brain due to competitive antagonism of adenosine (Ad): (i) a reduction in the homeostatic drive and (ii) an increase in cholinergic activity. By comparing the model output to experimental data, constraints are determined on the parameters that describe the action of caffeine on the brain. In accord with experiment, the ranges of these parameters imply significant variability in caffeine sensitivity between individuals, with caffeine's effectiveness in reducing fatigue being highly dependent on an individual's tolerance, and past caffeine and sleep history. Although there are wide individual differences in caffeine sensitivity and thus in parameter values, once the model is calibrated for an individual it can be used to make quantitative predictions for that individual. A number of applications of the model are examined, using exemplar parameter values, including: (i) quantitative estimation of the sleep loss and the delay to sleep onset after taking caffeine for various doses and times; (ii) an analysis of the system's stable states showing that the wake state during sleep deprivation is stabilized after taking caffeine; and (iii) comparing model output successfully to experimental values of subjective fatigue reported in a total sleep deprivation study examining the reduction of fatigue with caffeine. This model provides a framework for quantitatively assessing optimal strategies for using caffeine, on an individual basis, to maintain performance during sleep deprivation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The impact of incorporating molecular evolutionary model into predictions of phylogenetic signal and noise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuo eSu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Phylogenetic inference can be improved by the development and use of better models for inference given the data available, or by gathering more appropriate data given the potential inferences to be made. Numerous studies have demonstrated the crucial importance of selecting a best-fit model to conducting accurate phylogenetic inference given a data set, explicitly revealing how model choice affects the results of phylogenetic inferences. However, the importance of specifying a correct model of evolution for predictions of the best data to be gathered has never been examined. Here, we extend analyses of phylogenetic signal and noise that predict the potential to resolve nodes in a phylogeny to incorporate all time-reversible Markov models of nucleotide substitution. Extending previous results on the canonical four-taxon tree, our theory yields an analytical method that uses estimates of the rates of evolution and the model of molecular evolution to predict the distribution of signal, noise, and polytomy. We applied our methods to a study of 29 taxa of the yeast genus Candida and allied members to predict the power of five markers, COX2, ACT1, RPB1, RPB2, and D1/D2 LSU, to resolve a poorly supported backbone node corresponding to a clade of haploid Candida species, as well as nineteen other nodes that are reasonably short and at least moderately deep in the consensus tree. The use of simple, unrealistic models that did not take into account transition/transversion rate differences led to some discrepancies in predictions, but overall our results demonstrate that predictions of signal and noise in phylogenetics are fairly robust to model specification.

  6. Development of a prototype mesoscale computer model incorporating treatment of topography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apsimon, H.; Kitson, K.; Fawcett, M.; Goddard, A.J.H.

    1984-01-01

    Models are available for simulating dispersal of accidental releases, using mass-consistent wind-fields and accounting for site-specific topography. These techniques were examined critically to see if they might be improved, and to assess their limitations. An improved model, windfield adjusted for topography (WAFT), was developed (with advantages over MATHEW used in the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability - ARAC system). To simulate dispersion in the windfields produced by WAFT and calculate time integrated air concentrations and dry and wet deposition the TOMCATS model was developed. It treats the release as an assembly of pseudo-particles using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate turbulent displacements. It allows for larger eddy effects in the horizontal turbulence spectrum. Wet deposition is calculated using inhomogeneous rainfields evolving in time and space. The models were assessed, applying them to hypothetical releases in complex terrain, using typical data applicable in accident conditions, and undertaking sensitivity studies. One finds considerable uncertainty in results produced by these models. Although useful for post-facto analysis, such limitations cast doubt on their advantages, relative to simpler techniques, during an actual emergency

  7. Modeling the Maturation of Grip Selection Planning and Action Representation: Insights from Typical and Atypical Motor Development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian eFuelscher

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the purported association between developmental changes in grip selection planning and improvements in an individual’s capacity to represent action at an internal level (i.e., motor imagery. Participants were groups of healthy children aged 6-7 years and 8-12 years respectively, while a group of adolescents (13-17 years and adults (18-34 years allowed for consideration of childhood development in the broader context of motor maturation. A group of children aged 8-12 years with probable DCD (pDCD was included as a reference group for atypical motor development. Participants’ proficiency to generate and/or engage internal action representations was inferred from performance on the hand rotation task, a well-validated measure of motor imagery. A grip selection task designed to elicit the end-state comfort (ESC effect provided a window into the integrity of grip selection planning. Consistent with earlier accounts, the efficiency of grip selection planning followed a non-linear developmental progression in neurotypical individuals. As expected, analysis confirmed that these developmental improvements were predicted by an increased capacity to generate and/or engage internal action representations. The profile of this association remained stable throughout the (typical developmental spectrum. These findings are consistent with computational accounts of action planning that argue that internal action representations are associated with the expression and development of grip selection planning across typical development. However, no such association was found for our sample of children with pDCD, suggesting that individuals with atypical motor skill may adopt an alternative, sub-optimal strategy to plan their grip selection compared to their same-age control peers.

  8. Incorporating hydraulic/hydromorphologic properties and their stage dependency into hydrologic compartmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafsson, A.; Wörman, A.

    2009-04-01

    According to recent studies, the volumetric error of the predicted size of the spring flood in Sweden can be as large as 20%. A significant part of this error originates from simplifications in the spatial and hydrodynamic description of watercourse networks, as well as statistical problems to give proper weight to extreme flows. Possible ways to improve current hydrological modelling practises is by making models more adapted to varying flow conditions as well as by increasing the coupling between model parameters and physical catchment characteristics. This study formulates a methodology based in hydrodynamical/hydraulic theory to investigate how river network characteristics vary with flow stage and how to transfer this information to compartmental hydrologic models such as the HBV/HYPE models. This is particularly important during extreme flows when a significant portion of the water flows outside the normal stream channels. The aim is to combine knowledge about the hydrodynamics and hydro-morphology of watercourse networks to improve the predictions of peak flows. HYPE is a semi-distributed conceptual compartmental hydrological model which is currently being developed at the SMHI as a successor to the HBV model. The model (HYPE) is thought to be better adapted to varying flow conditions by using the dynamical response functions derived by the methodology described here. The distribution of residence times within the watercourse network - and how these depend on flow stage is analysed. This information is then incorporated into the response functions of the HYPE model, i.e. the compartmental model receives a dynamic transformation function relating river discharge to storativity within the sub-catchment. This response function hence reflects the topologic and hydromorphologic characteristics of the watercourse network as well as flow stage. Seven subcatchments in Rönne River basin (1900 km2) are studied to show how this approach can improve the prediction of

  9. Incorporation of defects into the central atoms model of a metallic glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lass, Eric A.; Zhu Aiwu; Shiflet, G.J.; Joseph Poon, S.

    2011-01-01

    The central atoms model (CAM) of a metallic glass is extended to incorporate thermodynamically stable defects, similar to vacancies in a crystalline solid, within the amorphous structure. A bond deficiency (BD), which is the proposed defect present in all metallic glasses, is introduced into the CAM equations. Like vacancies in a crystalline solid, BDs are thermodynamically stable entities because of the increase in entropy associated with their creation, and there is an equilibrium concentration present in the glassy phase. When applied to Cu-Zr and Ni-Zr binary metallic glasses, the concentration of thermally induced BDs surrounding Zr atoms reaches a relatively constant value at the glass transition temperature, regardless of composition within a given glass system. Using this 'critical' defect concentration, the predicted temperatures at which the glass transition is expected to occur are in good agreement with the experimentally determined glass transition temperatures for both alloy systems.

  10. A Microdosimetric-Kinetic Model of Cell Killing by Irradiation from Permanently Incorporated Radionuclides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Roland B

    2018-01-01

    An expression for the surviving fraction of a replicating population of cells exposed to permanently incorporated radionuclide is derived from the microdosimetric-kinetic model. It includes dependency on total implant dose, linear energy transfer (LET), decay rate of the radionuclide, the repair rate of potentially lethal lesions in DNA and the volume doubling time of the target population. This is used to obtain an expression for the biologically effective dose ( BED α / β ) based on the minimum survival achieved by the implant that is equivalent to, and can be compared and combined with, the BED α / β calculated for a fractionated course of radiation treatment. Approximate relationships are presented that are useful in the calculation of BED α / β for alpha- or beta-emitting radionuclides with half-life significantly greater than, or nearly equal to, the approximately 1-h repair half-life of radiation-induced potentially lethal lesions.

  11. Incorporation of Hydrogen Bond Angle Dependency into the Generalized Solvation Free Energy Density Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Songling; Hwang, Sungbo; Lee, Sehan; Acree, William E; No, Kyoung Tai

    2018-03-30

    To describe the physically realistic solvation free energy surface of a molecule in a solvent, a generalized version of the solvation free energy density (G-SFED) calculation method has been developed. In the G-SFED model, the contribution from the hydrogen bond (HB) between a solute and a solvent to the solvation free energy was calculated as the product of the acidity of the donor and the basicity of the acceptor of an HB pair. The acidity and basicity parameters of a solute were derived using the summation of acidities and basicities of the respective acidic and basic functional groups of the solute, and that of the solvent was experimentally determined. Although the contribution of HBs to the solvation free energy could be evenly distributed to grid points on the surface of a molecule, the G-SFED model was still inadequate to describe the angle dependency of the HB of a solute with a polarizable continuum solvent. To overcome this shortcoming of the G-SFED model, the contribution of HBs was formulated using the geometric parameters of the grid points described in the HB coordinate system of the solute. We propose an HB angle dependency incorporated into the G-SFED model, i.e., the G-SFED-HB model, where the angular-dependent acidity and basicity densities are defined and parametrized with experimental data. The G-SFED-HB model was then applied to calculate the solvation free energies of organic molecules in water, various alcohols and ethers, and the log P values of diverse organic molecules, including peptides and a protein. Both the G-SFED model and the G-SFED-HB model reproduced the experimental solvation free energies with similar accuracy, whereas the distributions of the SFED on the molecular surface calculated by the G-SFED and G-SFED-HB models were quite different, especially for molecules having HB donors or acceptors. Since the angle dependency of HBs was included in the G-SFED-HB model, the SFED distribution of the G-SFED-HB model is well described

  12. Incorporating Mental Representations in Discrete Choice Models of Travel Behaviour : Modelling Approach and Empirical Application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.A. Arentze (Theo); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict); C.G. Chorus (Casper)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe introduce an extension of the discrete choice model to take into account individuals’ mental representation of a choice problem. We argue that, especially in daily activity and travel choices, the activated needs of an individual have an influence on the benefits he or she pursues in

  13. Research on Soft Reduction Amount Distribution to Eliminate Typical Inter-dendritic Crack in Continuous Casting Slab of X70 Pipeline Steel by Numerical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ke; Wang, Chang; Liu, Guo-liang; Ding, Ning; Sun, Qi-song; Tian, Zhi-hong

    2017-04-01

    To investigate the formation of one kind of typical inter-dendritic crack around triple point region in continuous casting(CC) slab during the operation of soft reduction, fully coupled 3D thermo-mechanical finite element models was developed, also plant trials were carried out in a domestic continuous casting machine. Three possible types of soft reduction amount distribution (SRAD) in the soft reduction region were analyzed. The relationship between the typical inter-dendritic cracks and soft reduction conditions is presented and demonstrated in production practice. Considering the critical strain of internal crack formation, a critical tolerance for the soft reduction amount distribution and related casing parameters have been proposed for better contribution of soft reduction to the internal quality of slabs. The typical inter-dendritic crack around the triple point region had been eliminated effectively through the application of proposed suggestions for continuous casting of X70 pipeline steel in industrial practice.

  14. The Impact of Incorporating Chemistry to Numerical Weather Prediction Models: An Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, P. A.; Arellano, A. F.

    2011-12-01

    Data assimilation has emerged as an integral part of numerical weather prediction (NWP). More recently, atmospheric chemistry processes have been incorporated into NWP models to provide forecasts and guidance on air quality. There is, however, a unique opportunity within this coupled system to investigate the additional benefit of constraining model dynamics and physics due to chemistry. Several studies have reported the strong interaction between chemistry and meteorology through radiation, transport, emission, and cloud processes. To examine its importance to NWP, we conduct an ensemble-based sensitivity analysis of meteorological fields to the chemical and aerosol fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) framework. In particular, we examine the sensitivity of the forecasts of surface temperature and related dynamical fields to the initial conditions of dust and aerosol concentrations in the model over the continental United States within the summer 2008 time period. We use an ensemble of meteorological and chemical/aerosol predictions within WRF-Chem/DART to calculate the sensitivities. This approach is similar to recent ensemble-based sensitivity studies in NWP. The use of an ensemble prediction is appealing because the analysis does not require the adjoint of the model, which to a certain extent becomes a limitation due to the rapidly evolving models and the increasing number of different observations. Here, we introduce this approach as applied to atmospheric chemistry. We also show our initial results of the calculated sensitivities from joint assimilation experiments using a combination of conventional meteorological observations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, retrievals of aerosol optical depth from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and retrievals of carbon monoxide from NASA's Measurements of Pollution in the

  15. Incorporating fragmentation and non-native species into distribution models to inform fluvial fish conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Andrew T; Papeş, Monica; Long, James M

    2018-02-01

    Fluvial fishes face increased imperilment from anthropogenic activities, but the specific factors contributing most to range declines are often poorly understood. For example, the range of the fluvial-specialist shoal bass (Micropterus cataractae) continues to decrease, yet how perceived threats have contributed to range loss is largely unknown. We used species distribution models to determine which factors contributed most to shoal bass range loss. We estimated a potential distribution based on natural abiotic factors and a series of currently occupied distributions that incorporated variables characterizing land cover, non-native species, and river fragmentation intensity (no fragmentation, dams only, and dams and large impoundments). We allowed interspecific relationships between non-native congeners and shoal bass to vary across fragmentation intensities. Results from the potential distribution model estimated shoal bass presence throughout much of their native basin, whereas models of currently occupied distribution showed that range loss increased as fragmentation intensified. Response curves from models of currently occupied distribution indicated a potential interaction between fragmentation intensity and the relationship between shoal bass and non-native congeners, wherein non-natives may be favored at the highest fragmentation intensity. Response curves also suggested that >100 km of interconnected, free-flowing stream fragments were necessary to support shoal bass presence. Model evaluation, including an independent validation, suggested that models had favorable predictive and discriminative abilities. Similar approaches that use readily available, diverse, geospatial data sets may deliver insights into the biology and conservation needs of other fluvial species facing similar threats. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Methodology for the Incorporation of Passive Component Aging Modeling into the RAVEN/ RELAP-7 Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mandelli, Diego; Rabiti, Cristian; Cogliati, Joshua; Alfonsi, Andrea; Askin Guler; Tunc Aldemir

    2014-11-01

    Passive system, structure and components (SSCs) will degrade over their operation life and this degradation may cause to reduction in the safety margins of a nuclear power plant. In traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) using the event-tree/fault-tree methodology, passive SSC failure rates are generally based on generic plant failure data and the true state of a specific plant is not reflected realistically. To address aging effects of passive SSCs in the traditional PRA methodology [1] does consider physics based models that account for the operating conditions in the plant, however, [1] does not include effects of surveillance/inspection. This paper represents an overall methodology for the incorporation of aging modeling of passive components into the RAVEN/RELAP-7 environment which provides a framework for performing dynamic PRA. Dynamic PRA allows consideration of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties (including those associated with maintenance activities) in a consistent phenomenological and probabilistic framework and is often needed when there is complex process/hardware/software/firmware/ human interaction [2]. Dynamic PRA has gained attention recently due to difficulties in the traditional PRA modeling of aging effects of passive components using physics based models and also in the modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems. RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control Environment) [3] is a software package under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as an online control logic driver and post-processing tool. It is coupled to the plant transient code RELAP-7 (Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program) also currently under development at INL [3], as well as RELAP 5 [4]. The overall methodology aims to: • Address multiple aging mechanisms involving large number of components in a computational feasible manner where sequencing of events is conditioned on the physical conditions predicted in a simulation

  17. Incorporating representation of agricultural ecosystems and management within a dynamic biosphere model: Approach, validation, and significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharik, C.

    2004-12-01

    At the scale of individual fields, crop models have long been used to examine the interactions between soils, vegetation, the atmosphere and human management, using varied levels of numerical sophistication. While previous efforts have contributed significantly towards the advancement of modeling tools, the models themselves are not typically applied across larger continental scales due to a lack of crucial data. Furthermore, many times crop models are used to study a single quantity, process, or cycle in isolation, limiting their value in considering the important tradeoffs between competing ecosystem services such as food production, water quality, and sequestered carbon. In response to the need for a more integrated agricultural modeling approach across the continental scale, an updated agricultural version of a dynamic biosphere model (IBIS) now integrates representations of land-surface physics and soil physics, canopy physiology, terrestrial carbon and nitrogen balance, crop phenology, solute transport, and farm management into a single framework. This version of the IBIS model (Agro-IBIS) uses a short 20 to 60-minute timestep to simulate the rapid exchange of energy, carbon, water, and momentum between soils, vegetative canopies, and the atmosphere. The model can be driven either by site-specific meteorological data or by gridded climate datasets. Mechanistic crop models for corn, soybean, and wheat use physiologically-based representations of leaf photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and plant respiration. Model validation has been performed using a variety of temporal scale data collected at the following spatial scales: (1) the precision-agriculture scale (5 m), (2) the individual field experiment scale (AmeriFlux), and (3) regional and continental scales using annual USDA county-level yield data and monthly satellite (AVHRR) observations of vegetation characteristics at 0.5 degree resolution. To date, the model has been used with great success to

  18. Incorporating an extended dendritic growth model into the CAFE model for rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Jie; Wang, Bo [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhao, Shunli [Research Institute, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd, Shanghai 201900 (China); Wu, Guangxin [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Zhang, Jieyu, E-mail: zjy6162@staff.shu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China); Yang, Zhiliang [State Key Laboratory of Advanced Special Steel, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072 (China); Shanghai Engineering Technology Research Center of Special Casting, Shanghai 201605 (China)

    2016-05-25

    We have extended the dendritic growth model first proposed by Boettinger, Coriell and Trivedi (here termed EBCT) for microstructure simulations of rapidly solidified non-dilute alloys. The temperature-dependent distribution coefficient, obtained from calculations of phase equilibria, and the continuous growth model (CGM) were adopted in the present EBCT model to describe the solute trapping behaviors. The temperature dependence of the physical properties, which were not used in previous dendritic growth models, were also considered in the present EBCT model. These extensions allow the present EBCT model to be used for microstructure simulations of non-dilute alloys. The comparison of the present EBCT model with the BCT model proves that the considerations of the distribution coefficient and physical properties are necessary for microstructure simulations, especially for small particles with high undercoolings. Finally, the EBCT model was incorporated into the cellular automaton-finite element (CAFE) model to simulate microstructures of gas-atomized ASP30 high speed steel particles that were then compared with experimental results. Both the simulated and experimental results reveal that a columnar dendritic microstructure preferentially forms in small particles and an equiaxed microstructure forms otherwise. The applications of the present EBCT model provide a convenient way to predict the microstructure of non-dilute alloys. - Highlights: • A dendritic growth model was developed considering non-equilibrium distribution coefficient. • The physical properties with temperature dependence were considered in the extended model. • The extended model can be used to non-dilute alloys and the extensions are necessary in small particles. • Microstructure of ASP30 steel was investigated using the present model and verified by experiment.

  19. HLA-B*39:06 Efficiently Mediates Type 1 Diabetes in a Mouse Model Incorporating Reduced Thymic Insulin Expression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schloss, Jennifer; Ali, Riyasat; Racine, Jeremy J; Chapman, Harold D; Serreze, David V; DiLorenzo, Teresa P

    2018-04-09

    Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is characterized by T cell-mediated destruction of the insulin-producing β cells of the pancreatic islets. Among the loci associated with T1D risk, those most predisposing are found in the MHC region. HLA-B*39:06 is the most predisposing class I MHC allele and is associated with an early age of onset. To establish an NOD mouse model for the study of HLA-B*39:06, we expressed it in the absence of murine class I MHC. HLA-B*39:06 was able to mediate the development of CD8 T cells, support lymphocytic infiltration of the islets, and confer T1D susceptibility. Because reduced thymic insulin expression is associated with impaired immunological tolerance to insulin and increased T1D risk in patients, we incorporated this in our model as well, finding that HLA-B*39:06-transgenic NOD mice with reduced thymic insulin expression have an earlier age of disease onset and a higher overall prevalence as compared with littermates with typical thymic insulin expression. This was despite virtually indistinguishable blood insulin levels, T cell subset percentages, and TCR Vβ family usage, confirming that reduced thymic insulin expression does not impact T cell development on a global scale. Rather, it will facilitate the thymic escape of insulin-reactive HLA-B*39:06-restricted T cells, which participate in β cell destruction. We also found that in mice expressing either HLA-B*39:06 or HLA-A*02:01 in the absence of murine class I MHC, HLA transgene identity alters TCR Vβ usage by CD8 T cells, demonstrating that some TCR Vβ families have a preference for particular class I MHC alleles. Copyright © 2018 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

  20. Incorporation of a Wind Generator Model into a Dynamic Power Flow Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angeles-Camacho C.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy is nowadays one of the most cost-effective and practical options for electric generation from renewable resources. However, increased penetration of wind generation causes the power networks to be more depend on, and vulnerable to, the varying wind speed. Modeling is a tool which can provide valuable information about the interaction between wind farms and the power network to which they are connected. This paper develops a realistic characterization of a wind generator. The wind generator model is incorporated into an algorithm to investigate its contribution to the stability of the power network in the time domain. The tool obtained is termed dynamic power flow. The wind generator model takes on account the wind speed and the reactive power consumption by induction generators. Dynamic power flow analysis is carried-out using real wind data at 10-minute time intervals collected for one meteorological station. The generation injected at one point into the network provides active power locally and is found to reduce global power losses. However, the power supplied is time-varying and causes fluctuations in voltage magnitude and power fl ows in transmission lines.

  1. Supersonic propulsion simulation by incorporating component models in the large perturbation inlet (LAPIN) computer code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Gary L.; Richard, Jacques C.

    1991-01-01

    An approach to simulating the internal flows of supersonic propulsion systems is presented. The approach is based on a fairly simple modification of the Large Perturbation Inlet (LAPIN) computer code. LAPIN uses a quasi-one dimensional, inviscid, unsteady formulation of the continuity, momentum, and energy equations. The equations are solved using a shock capturing, finite difference algorithm. The original code, developed for simulating supersonic inlets, includes engineering models of unstart/restart, bleed, bypass, and variable duct geometry, by means of source terms in the equations. The source terms also provide a mechanism for incorporating, with the inlet, propulsion system components such as compressor stages, combustors, and turbine stages. This requires each component to be distributed axially over a number of grid points. Because of the distributed nature of such components, this representation should be more accurate than a lumped parameter model. Components can be modeled by performance map(s), which in turn are used to compute the source terms. The general approach is described. Then, simulation of a compressor/fan stage is discussed to show the approach in detail.

  2. A Non-Isothermal Chemical Lattice Boltzmann Model Incorporating Thermal Reaction Kinetics and Enthalpy Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Bartlett

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The lattice Boltzmann method is an efficient computational fluid dynamics technique that can accurately model a broad range of complex systems. As well as single-phase fluids, it can simulate thermohydrodynamic systems and passive scalar advection. In recent years, it also gained attention as a means of simulating chemical phenomena, as interest in self-organization processes increased. This paper will present a widely-used and versatile lattice Boltzmann model that can simultaneously incorporate fluid dynamics, heat transfer, buoyancy-driven convection, passive scalar advection, chemical reactions and enthalpy changes. All of these effects interact in a physically accurate framework that is simple to code and readily parallelizable. As well as a complete description of the model equations, several example systems will be presented in order to demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the method. New simulations, which analyzed the effect of a reversible reaction on the transport properties of a convecting fluid, will also be described in detail. This extra chemical degree of freedom was utilized by the system to augment its net heat flux. The numerical method outlined in this paper can be readily deployed for a vast range of complex flow problems, spanning a variety of scientific disciplines.

  3. Projecting cancer incidence using age-period-cohort models incorporating restricted cubic splines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, Mark J; Thompson, John R; Lambert, Paul C

    2012-11-05

    Age-period-cohort models provide a useful method for modeling incidence and mortality rates. There is great interest in estimating the rates of disease at given future time-points in order that plans can be made for the provision of the required future services. In the setting of using age-period-cohort models incorporating restricted cubic splines, a new technique for projecting incidence is proposed. The new technique projects the period and cohort terms linearly from 10 years within the range of the available data in order to give projections that are based on recent trends. The method is validated via a comparison with existing methods in the setting of Finnish cancer registry data. The reasons for the improvements seen for the newly proposed method are twofold. Firstly, improvements are seen due to the finer splitting of the timescale to give a more continuous estimate of the incidence rate. Secondly, the new method uses more recent trends to dictate the future projections than previously proposed methods.

  4. Incorporating Human-like Walking Variability in an HZD-Based Bipedal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Anne E; Gregg, Robert D

    2016-08-01

    Predictive simulations of human walking could be used to investigate a wide range of questions. Promising moderately complex models have been developed using the robotics control technique hybrid zero dynamics (HZD). Existing simulations of human walking only consider the mean motion, so they cannot be used to investigate fall risk, which is correlated with variability. This work determines how to incorporate human-like variability into an HZD-based healthy human model to generate a more realistic gait. The key challenge is determining how to combine the existing mathematical description of variability with the dynamic model so that the biped is still able to walk without falling. To do so, the commanded motion is augmented with a sinusoidal variability function and a polynomial correction function. The variability function captures the variation in joint angles while the correction function prevents the variability function from growing uncontrollably. The necessity of the correction function and the improvements with a reduction of stance ankle variability are demonstrated via simulations. The variability in temporal measures is shown to be similar to experimental values.

  5. Analytic representations of high-altitude auroral H^+ and O^+ densities, flow velocities and temperatures in terms of drivers for incorporation into global magnetospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horwitz, James; Zeng, Wen

    2008-10-01

    As new methods of describing multiple fluid species and other advances enhance the capability of global magnetospheric models to simulate the dynamics of multiple ion species, they also allow more accurate incorporation of ionospheric plasma outflows as source populations into these large scale models. Here, we shall describe the distilled results of numerous physics-based simulations of ionospheric plasma outflows influenced by auroral driving agents in terms of compact analytic expressions in terms of precipitation electron energy flux levels, characteristic energy levels of the precipitating electrons, the peak spectral wave densities for low-frequency electrostatic waves which transversely heat ionospheric ions, and solar zenith angle. The simulations are conducted with the UT Arlington Dynamic Fluid Kinetic (DyFK) ionospheric plasma transport code. We present these analytic expressions for ionospheric origin O^+ and H^+ densities, temperatures and field-aligned flow velocities at the 3 RE altitude inner boundaries of typical magnetospheric models.

  6. Incorporating food web dynamics into ecological restoration: A modeling approach for river ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellmore, J. Ryan; Benjamin, Joseph R.; Newsom, Michael; Bountry, Jennifer A.; Dombroski, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Restoration is frequently aimed at the recovery of target species, but also influences the larger food web in which these species participate. Effects of restoration on this broader network of organisms can influence target species both directly and indirectly via changes in energy flow through food webs. To help incorporate these complexities into river restoration planning we constructed a model that links river food web dynamics to in-stream physical habitat and riparian vegetation conditions. We present an application of the model to the Methow River, Washington (USA), a location of on-going restoration aimed at recovering salmon. Three restoration strategies were simulated: riparian vegetation restoration, nutrient augmentation via salmon carcass addition, and side-channel reconnection. We also added populations of nonnative aquatic snails and fish to the modeled food web to explore how changes in food web structure mediate responses to restoration. Simulations suggest that side-channel reconnection may be a better strategy than carcass addition and vegetation planting for improving conditions for salmon in this river segment. However, modeled responses were strongly sensitive to changes in the structure of the food web. The addition of nonnative snails and fish modified pathways of energy through the food web, which negated restoration improvements. This finding illustrates that forecasting responses to restoration may require accounting for the structure of food webs, and that changes in this structure—as might be expected with the spread of invasive species—could compromise restoration outcomes. Unlike habitat-based approaches to restoration assessment that focus on the direct effects of physical habitat conditions on single species of interest, our approach dynamically links the success of target organisms to the success of competitors, predators, and prey. By elucidating the direct and indirect pathways by which restoration affects target species

  7. MIST: An Open Source Environmental Modelling Programming Language Incorporating Easy to Use Data Parallelism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellerby, Tim

    2014-05-01

    Model Integration System (MIST) is open-source environmental modelling programming language that directly incorporates data parallelism. The language is designed to enable straightforward programming structures, such as nested loops and conditional statements to be directly translated into sequences of whole-array (or more generally whole data-structure) operations. MIST thus enables the programmer to use well-understood constructs, directly relating to the mathematical structure of the model, without having to explicitly vectorize code or worry about details of parallelization. A range of common modelling operations are supported by dedicated language structures operating on cell neighbourhoods rather than individual cells (e.g.: the 3x3 local neighbourhood needed to implement an averaging image filter can be simply accessed from within a simple loop traversing all image pixels). This facility hides details of inter-process communication behind more mathematically relevant descriptions of model dynamics. The MIST automatic vectorization/parallelization process serves both to distribute work among available nodes and separately to control storage requirements for intermediate expressions - enabling operations on very large domains for which memory availability may be an issue. MIST is designed to facilitate efficient interpreter based implementations. A prototype open source interpreter is available, coded in standard FORTRAN 95, with tools to rapidly integrate existing FORTRAN 77 or 95 code libraries. The language is formally specified and thus not limited to FORTRAN implementation or to an interpreter-based approach. A MIST to FORTRAN compiler is under development and volunteers are sought to create an ANSI-C implementation. Parallel processing is currently implemented using OpenMP. However, parallelization code is fully modularised and could be replaced with implementations using other libraries. GPU implementation is potentially possible.

  8. Incorporating food web dynamics into ecological restoration: a modeling approach for river ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellmore, J Ryan; Benjamin, Joseph R; Newsom, Michael; Bountry, Jennifer A; Dombroski, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Restoration is frequently aimed at the recovery of target species, but also influences the larger food web in which these species participate. Effects of restoration on this broader network of organisms can influence target species both directly and indirectly via changes in energy flow through food webs. To help incorporate these complexities into river restoration planning, we constructed a model that links river food web dynamics to in-stream physical habitat and riparian vegetation conditions. We present an application of the model to the Methow River, Washington, USA, a location of on-going restoration aimed at recovering salmon. Three restoration strategies were simulated: riparian vegetation restoration, nutrient augmentation via salmon carcass addition, and side channel reconnection. We also added populations of nonnative aquatic snails and fish to the modeled food web to explore how changes in food web structure mediate responses to restoration. Simulations suggest that side channel reconnection may be a better strategy than carcass addition and vegetation planting for improving conditions for salmon in this river segment. However, modeled responses were strongly sensitive to changes in the structure of the food web. The addition of nonnative snails and fish modified pathways of energy through the food web, which negated restoration improvements. This finding illustrates that forecasting responses to restoration may require accounting for the structure of food webs, and that changes in this structure, as might be expected with the spread of invasive species, could compromise restoration outcomes. Unlike habitat-based approaches to restoration assessment that focus on the direct effects of physical habitat conditions on single species of interest, our approach dynamically links the success of target organisms to the success of competitors, predators, and prey. By elucidating the direct and indirect pathways by which restoration affects target species

  9. A land use regression model incorporating data on industrial point source pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li; Wang, Yuming; Li, Peiwu; Ji, Yaqin; Kong, Shaofei; Li, Zhiyong; Bai, Zhipeng

    2012-01-01

    Advancing the understanding of the spatial aspects of air pollution in the city regional environment is an area where improved methods can be of great benefit to exposure assessment and policy support. We created land use regression (LUR) models for SO2, NO2 and PM10 for Tianjin, China. Traffic volumes, road networks, land use data, population density, meteorological conditions, physical conditions and satellite-derived greenness, brightness and wetness were used for predicting SO2, NO2 and PM10 concentrations. We incorporated data on industrial point sources to improve LUR model performance. In order to consider the impact of different sources, we calculated the PSIndex, LSIndex and area of different land use types (agricultural land, industrial land, commercial land, residential land, green space and water area) within different buffer radii (1 to 20 km). This method makes up for the lack of consideration of source impact based on the LUR model. Remote sensing-derived variables were significantly correlated with gaseous pollutant concentrations such as SO2 and NO2. R2 values of the multiple linear regression equations for SO2, NO2 and PM10 were 0.78, 0.89 and 0.84, respectively, and the RMSE values were 0.32, 0.18 and 0.21, respectively. Model predictions at validation monitoring sites went well with predictions generally within 15% of measured values. Compared to the relationship between dependent variables and simple variables (such as traffic variables or meteorological condition variables), the relationship between dependent variables and integrated variables was more consistent with a linear relationship. Such integration has a discernable influence on both the overall model prediction and health effects assessment on the spatial distribution of air pollution in the city region.

  10. Research on the recycling industry development model for typical exterior plastic components of end-of-life passenger vehicle based on the SWOT method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongshen; Chen, Ming

    2013-11-01

    In-depth studies on the recycling of typical automotive exterior plastic parts are significant and beneficial for environmental protection, energy conservation, and sustainable development of China. In the current study, several methods were used to analyze the recycling industry model for typical exterior parts of passenger vehicles in China. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges of the current recycling industry for typical exterior parts of passenger vehicles were analyzed comprehensively based on the SWOT method. The internal factor evaluation matrix and external factor evaluation matrix were used to evaluate the internal and external factors of the recycling industry. The recycling industry was found to respond well to all the factors and it was found to face good developing opportunities. Then, the cross-link strategies analysis for the typical exterior parts of the passenger car industry of China was conducted based on the SWOT analysis strategies and established SWOT matrix. Finally, based on the aforementioned research, the recycling industry model led by automobile manufacturers was promoted. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimating disperser abundance using open population models that incorporate data from continuous detection PIT arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzul, Maria C.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Korman, Josh

    2017-01-01

    Autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems continuously detect individually marked organisms at one or more fixed points over long time periods. Estimating abundance using data from autonomous antennae can be challenging, because these systems do not detect unmarked individuals. Here we pair PIT antennae data from a tributary with mark-recapture sampling data in a mainstem river to estimate the number of fish moving from the mainstem to the tributary. We then use our model to estimate abundance of non-native rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that move from the Colorado River to the Little Colorado River (LCR), the latter of which is important spawning and rearing habitat for federally-endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. We estimate 226 rainbow trout (95% CI: 127-370) entered the LCR from October 2013-April 2014. We discuss the challenges of incorporating detections from autonomous PIT antenna systems into mark-recapture population models, particularly in regards to using information about spatial location to estimate movement and detection probabilities.

  12. A systematic procedure for the incorporation of common cause events into risk and reliability models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Mosleh, A.; Deremer, R.K.

    1986-01-01

    Common cause events are an important class of dependent events with respect to their contribution to system unavailability and to plant risk. Unfortunately, these events have not been treated with any king of consistency in applied risk studies over the past decade. Many probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) have not included these events at all, and those that have did not employ the kind of systematic procedures that are needed to achieve consistency, accuracy, and credibility in this area of PRA methodology. In this paper, the authors report on the progress recently made in the development of a systematic approach for incorporating common cause events into applied risk and reliability evaluations. This approach takes advantage of experience from recently completed PRAs and is the result of a project, sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), in which procedures for dependent events analysis are being developed. Described in this paper is a general framework for system-level common cause failure (CCF) analysis and its application to a three-train auxiliary feedwater system. Within this general framework, three parametric CCF models are compared, including the basic parameter (BP), multiple Greek letter (MGL), and binominal failure rate (BFR) models. Pitfalls of not following the recommended procedure are discussed, and some old issues, such as the benefits of redundancy and diversity, are reexamined. (orig.)

  13. Incorporating a Wheeled Vehicle Model in a New Monocular Visual Odometry Algorithm for Dynamic Outdoor Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yanhua; Xiong, Guangming; Chen, Huiyan; Lee, Dah-Jye

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a monocular visual odometry algorithm that incorporates a wheeled vehicle model for ground vehicles. The main innovation of this algorithm is to use the single-track bicycle model to interpret the relationship between the yaw rate and side slip angle, which are the two most important parameters that describe the motion of a wheeled vehicle. Additionally, the pitch angle is also considered since the planar-motion hypothesis often fails due to the dynamic characteristics of wheel suspensions and tires in real-world environments. Linearization is used to calculate a closed-form solution of the motion parameters that works as a hypothesis generator in a RAndom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) scheme to reduce the complexity in solving equations involving trigonometric. All inliers found are used to refine the winner solution through minimizing the reprojection error. Finally, the algorithm is applied to real-time on-board visual localization applications. Its performance is evaluated by comparing against the state-of-the-art monocular visual odometry methods using both synthetic data and publicly available datasets over several kilometers in dynamic outdoor environments. PMID:25256109

  14. Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

    2017-12-01

    Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

  15. Incorporating a wheeled vehicle model in a new monocular visual odometry algorithm for dynamic outdoor environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yanhua; Xiong, Guangming; Chen, Huiyan; Lee, Dah-Jye

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents a monocular visual odometry algorithm that incorporates a wheeled vehicle model for ground vehicles. The main innovation of this algorithm is to use the single-track bicycle model to interpret the relationship between the yaw rate and side slip angle, which are the two most important parameters that describe the motion of a wheeled vehicle. Additionally, the pitch angle is also considered since the planar-motion hypothesis often fails due to the dynamic characteristics of wheel suspensions and tires in real-world environments. Linearization is used to calculate a closed-form solution of the motion parameters that works as a hypothesis generator in a RAndom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) scheme to reduce the complexity in solving equations involving trigonometric. All inliers found are used to refine the winner solution through minimizing the reprojection error. Finally, the algorithm is applied to real-time on-board visual localization applications. Its performance is evaluated by comparing against the state-of-the-art monocular visual odometry methods using both synthetic data and publicly available datasets over several kilometers in dynamic outdoor environments.

  16. Incorporating a Wheeled Vehicle Model in a New Monocular Visual Odometry Algorithm for Dynamic Outdoor Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanhua Jiang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a monocular visual odometry algorithm that incorporates a wheeled vehicle model for ground vehicles. The main innovation of this algorithm is to use the single-track bicycle model to interpret the relationship between the yaw rate and side slip angle, which are the two most important parameters that describe the motion of a wheeled vehicle. Additionally, the pitch angle is also considered since the planar-motion hypothesis often fails due to the dynamic characteristics of wheel suspensions and tires in real-world environments. Linearization is used to calculate a closed-form solution of the motion parameters that works as a hypothesis generator in a RAndom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC scheme to reduce the complexity in solving equations involving trigonometric. All inliers found are used to refine the winner solution through minimizing the reprojection error. Finally, the algorithm is applied to real-time on-board visual localization applications. Its performance is evaluated by comparing against the state-of-the-art monocular visual odometry methods using both synthetic data and publicly available datasets over several kilometers in dynamic outdoor environments.

  17. Experimental simulation and numerical modeling of vapor shield formation and divertor material erosion for ITER typical plasma disruptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wuerz, H. [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe, INR, Postfach 36 40, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Arkhipov, N.I. [Troitsk Institute for Innovation and Fusion Research, 142092 Troitsk (Russian Federation); Bakhtin, V.P. [Troitsk Institute for Innovation and Fusion Research, 142092 Troitsk (Russian Federation); Konkashbaev, I. [Troitsk Institute for Innovation and Fusion Research, 142092 Troitsk (Russian Federation); Landman, I. [Troitsk Institute for Innovation and Fusion Research, 142092 Troitsk (Russian Federation); Safronov, V.M. [Troitsk Institute for Innovation and Fusion Research, 142092 Troitsk (Russian Federation); Toporkov, D.A. [Troitsk Institute for Innovation and Fusion Research, 142092 Troitsk (Russian Federation); Zhitlukhin, A.M. [Troitsk Institute for Innovation and Fusion Research, 142092 Troitsk (Russian Federation)

    1995-04-01

    The high divertor heat load during a tokamak plasma disruption results in sudden evaporation of a thin layer of divertor plate material, which acts as vapor shield and protects the target from further excessive evaporation. Formation and effectiveness of the vapor shield are theoretically modeled and are experimentally analyzed at the 2MK-200 facility under conditions simulating the thermal quench phase of ITER tokamak plasma disruptions. ((orig.)).

  18. Numerical modeling and experimental simulation of vapor shield formation and divertor material erosion for ITER typical plasma disruptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wuerz, H.; Arkhipov, N.I.; Bakhin, V.P.; Goel, B.; Hoebel, W.; Konkashbaev, I.; Landman, I.; Piazza, G.; Safronov, V.M.; Sherbakov, A.R.; Toporkov, D.A.; Zhitlukhin, A.M.

    1994-01-01

    The high divertor heat load during a tokamak plasma disruption results in sudden evaporation of a thin layer of divertor plate material, which acts as vapor shield and protects the target from further excessive evaporation. Formation and effectiveness of the vapor shield are theoretically modeled and experimentally investigated at the 2MK-200 facility under conditions simulating the thermal quench phase of ITER tokamak plasma disruptions. In the optical wavelength range C II, C III, C IV emission lines for graphite, Cu I, Cu II lines for copper and continuum radiation for tungsten samples are observed in the target plasma. The plasma expands along the magnetic field lines with velocities of (4±1)x10 6 cm/s for graphite and 10 5 cm/s for copper. Modeling was done with a radiation hydrodynamics code in one-dimensional planar geometry. The multifrequency radiation transport is treated in flux limited diffusion and in forward reverse transport approximation. In these first modeling studies the overall shielding efficiency for carbon and tungsten defined as ratio of the incident energy and the vaporization energy for power densities of 10 MW/cm 2 exceeds a factor of 30. The vapor shield is established within 2 μs, the power fraction to the target after 10 μs is below 3% and reaches in the stationary state after about 20 μs a value of around 1.5%. ((orig.))

  19. CJ2 Icing Effects Simulator. Delivery Order 0019: Development of an Icing Effects Simulation for a Typical Business Jet Configuration

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Barnhart, Billy

    2007-01-01

    In this effort, Cessna Aircraft Company and Bihrle Applied Research teamed to develop and validate flight simulation models of a typical business jet incorporating the effects of various forms of ice...

  20. Incorporating Prognostic Marine Nitrogen Fixers and Related Bio-Physical Feedbacks in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, H.; Ilyina, T.; Six, K. D.

    2016-02-01

    Marine nitrogen fixers play a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycles by providing a major source of `new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Furthermore, nitrogen fixers may regionally have a direct impact on ocean physics and hence the climate system as they form extensive surface mats which can increase light absorption and surface albedo and reduce the momentum input by wind. Resulting alterations in temperature and stratification may feed back on nitrogen fixers' growth itself.We incorporate nitrogen fixers as a prognostic 3D tracer in the ocean biogeochemical component (HAMOCC) of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model and assess for the first time the impact of related bio-physical feedbacks on biogeochemistry and the climate system.The model successfully reproduces recent estimates of global nitrogen fixation rates, as well as the observed distribution of nitrogen fixers, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. First results indicate that including bio-physical feedbacks has considerable effects on the upper ocean physics in this region. Light absorption by nitrogen fixers leads locally to surface heating, subsurface cooling, and mixed layer depth shoaling in the subtropical gyres. As a result, equatorial upwelling is increased, leading to surface cooling at the equator. This signal is damped by the effect of the reduced wind stress due to the presence of cyanobacteria mats, which causes a reduction in the wind-driven circulation, and hence a reduction in equatorial upwelling. The increase in surface albedo due to nitrogen fixers has only inconsiderable effects. The response of nitrogen fixers' growth to the alterations in temperature and stratification varies regionally. Simulations with the fully coupled Earth system model are in progress to assess the implications of the biologically induced changes in upper ocean physics for the global climate system.

  1. A Fault-Cored Anticline Boundary Element Model Incorporating the Combined Fault Slip and Buckling Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Jeng Huang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available We develop a folding boundary element model in a medium containing a fault and elastic layers to show that anticlines growing over slipping reverse faults can be significantly amplified by mechanical layering buckling under horizontal shortening. Previous studies suggested that folds over blind reverse faults grow primarily during deformation increments associated with slips on the fault during and immediately after earthquakes. Under this assumption, the potential for earthquakes on blind faults can be determined directly from fold geometry because the amount of slip on the fault can be estimated directly from the fold geometry using the solution for a dislocation in an elastic half-space. Studies that assume folds grown solely by slip on a fault may therefore significantly overestimate fault slip. Our boundary element technique demonstrates that the fold amplitude produced in a medium containing a fault and elastic layers with free slip and subjected to layer-parallel shortening can grow to more than twice the fold amplitude produced in homogeneous media without mechanical layering under the same amount of shortening. In addition, the fold wavelengths produced by the combined fault slip and buckling mechanisms may be narrower than folds produced by fault slip in an elastic half space by a factor of two. We also show that subsurface fold geometry of the Kettleman Hills Anticline in Central California inferred from seismic reflection image is consistent with a model that incorporates layer buckling over a dipping, blind reverse fault and the coseismic uplift pattern produced during a 1985 earthquake centered over the anticline forelimb is predicted by the model.

  2. Using a cognitive architecture in educational and recreational games : How to incorporate a model in your App

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taatgen, Niels A.; de Weerd, Harmen; Reitter, David; Ritter, Frank

    2016-01-01

    We present a Swift re-implementation of the ACT-R cognitive architecture, which can be used to quickly build iOS Apps that incorporate an ACT-R model as a core feature. We discuss how this implementation can be used in an example model, and explore the breadth of possibilities by presenting six Apps

  3. Adolescent Decision-Making Processes regarding University Entry: A Model Incorporating Cultural Orientation, Motivation and Occupational Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup

    2013-01-01

    This study tested a newly developed model of the cognitive decision-making processes of senior high school students related to university entry. The model incorporated variables derived from motivation theory (i.e. expectancy-value theory and the theory of reasoned action), literature on cultural orientation and occupational considerations. A…

  4. Incorporating genetic variation into a model of budburst phenology of coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Gould; Constance A. Harrington; Bradley J. St Clair

    2011-01-01

    Models to predict budburst and other phenological events in plants are needed to forecast how climate change may impact ecosystems and for the development of mitigation strategies. Differences among genotypes are important to predicting phenological events in species that show strong clinal variation in adaptive traits. We present a model that incorporates the effects...

  5. Incorporation of Fine-Grained Sediment Erodibility Measurements into Sediment Transport Modeling, Capitol Lake, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Andrew W.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Elias, Edwin; Jones, Craig

    2008-01-01

    lab with Sedflume, an apparatus for measuring sediment erosion-parameters. In this report, we present results of the characterization of fine-grained sediment erodibility within Capitol Lake. The erodibility data were incorporated into the previously developed hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. Model simulations using the measured erodibility parameters were conducted to provide more robust estimates of the overall magnitudes and spatial patterns of sediment transport resulting from restoration of the Deschutes Estuary.

  6. A diagnostic model incorporating P50 sensory gating and neuropsychological tests for schizophrenia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Chi Shan

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Endophenotypes in schizophrenia research is a contemporary approach to studying this heterogeneous mental illness, and several candidate neurophysiological markers (e.g. P50 sensory gating and neuropsychological tests (e.g. Continuous Performance Test (CPT and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST have been proposed. However, the clinical utility of a single marker appears to be limited. In the present study, we aimed to construct a diagnostic model incorporating P50 sensory gating with other neuropsychological tests in order to improve the clinical utility. METHODS: We recruited clinically stable outpatients meeting DSM-IV criteria of schizophrenia and age- and gender-matched healthy controls. Participants underwent P50 sensory gating experimental sessions and batteries of neuropsychological tests, including CPT, WCST and Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale Third Edition (WAIS-III. RESULTS: A total of 106 schizophrenia patients and 74 healthy controls were enrolled. Compared with healthy controls, the patient group had significantly a larger S2 amplitude, and thus poorer P50 gating ratio (gating ratio = S2/S1. In addition, schizophrenia patients had a poorer performance on neuropsychological tests. We then developed a diagnostic model by using multivariable logistic regression analysis to differentiate patients from healthy controls. The final model included the following covariates: abnormal P50 gating (defined as P50 gating ratio >0.4, three subscales derived from the WAIS-III (Arithmetic, Block Design, and Performance IQ, sensitivity index from CPT and smoking status. This model had an adequate accuracy (concordant percentage = 90.4%; c-statistic = 0.904; Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test, p = 0.64>0.05. CONCLUSION: To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest study to date using P50 sensory gating in subjects of Chinese ethnicity and the first to use P50 sensory gating along with other neuropsychological tests

  7. Incorporation of the C-GOLDSTEIN efficient climate model into the GENIE framework: "eb_go_gs" configurations of GENIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Marsh

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available A computationally efficient, intermediate complexity ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model (C-GOLDSTEIN has been incorporated into the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE framework. This involved decoupling of the three component modules that were re-coupled in a modular way, to allow replacement with alternatives and coupling of further components within the framework. The climate model described here (referred to as "eb_go_gs" for short is the most basic version of GENIE in which atmosphere, ocean and sea ice all play an active role. Among improvements on the original C-GOLDSTEIN model, latitudinal grid resolution is generalized to allow a wider range of surface grids to be used. The ocean, atmosphere and sea-ice components of the "eb_go_gs" configuration of GENIE are individually described, along with details of their coupling. The setup and results from simulations using four different meshes are presented. The four alternative meshes comprise the widely-used 36 × 36 equal-area-partitioning of the Earth surface with 16 depth layers in the ocean, a version in which horizontal and vertical resolution are doubled, a setup matching the horizontal resolution of the dynamic atmospheric component available in the GENIE framework, and a setup with enhanced resolution in high-latitude areas. Results are presented for a spin-up experiment with a baseline parameter set and wind forcing typically used for current studies in which "eb_go_gs" is coupled with the ocean biogeochemistry module of GENIE, as well as for an experiment with a modified parameter set, revised wind forcing, and additional cross-basin transport pathways (Indonesian and Bering Strait throughflows. The latter experiment is repeated with the four mesh variants, with common parameter settings throughout, except for time-step length. Selected state variables and diagnostics are compared in two regards: (i between simulations at lowest resolution that are obtained with the

  8. Incorporating organizational factors into probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants through canonical probabilistic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galan, S.F.; Mosleh, A.; Izquierdo, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    The ω-factor approach is a method that explicitly incorporates organizational factors into Probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Bayesian networks (BNs) are the underlying formalism used in this approach. They have a structural part formed by a graph whose nodes represent organizational variables, and a parametric part that consists of conditional probabilities, each of them quantifying organizational influences between one variable and its parents in the graph. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we discuss some important limitations of current procedures in the ω-factor approach for either assessing conditional probabilities from experts or estimating them from data. We illustrate the discussion with an example that uses data from Licensee Events Reports of nuclear power plants for the estimation task. Second, we introduce significant improvements in the way BNs for the ω-factor approach can be constructed, so that parameter acquisition becomes easier and more intuitive. The improvements are based on the use of noisy-OR gates as model of multicausal interaction between each BN node and its parents

  9. Incorporating organizational factors into probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants through canonical probabilistic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galan, S.F. [Dpto. de Inteligencia Artificial, E.T.S.I. Informatica (UNED), Juan del Rosal, 16, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: seve@dia.uned.es; Mosleh, A. [2100A Marie Mount Hall, Materials and Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)]. E-mail: mosleh@umd.edu; Izquierdo, J.M. [Area de Modelado y Simulacion, Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear, Justo Dorado, 11, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: jmir@csn.es

    2007-08-15

    The {omega}-factor approach is a method that explicitly incorporates organizational factors into Probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Bayesian networks (BNs) are the underlying formalism used in this approach. They have a structural part formed by a graph whose nodes represent organizational variables, and a parametric part that consists of conditional probabilities, each of them quantifying organizational influences between one variable and its parents in the graph. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we discuss some important limitations of current procedures in the {omega}-factor approach for either assessing conditional probabilities from experts or estimating them from data. We illustrate the discussion with an example that uses data from Licensee Events Reports of nuclear power plants for the estimation task. Second, we introduce significant improvements in the way BNs for the {omega}-factor approach can be constructed, so that parameter acquisition becomes easier and more intuitive. The improvements are based on the use of noisy-OR gates as model of multicausal interaction between each BN node and its parents.

  10. The Optimal Price Ratio of Typical Energy Sources in Beijing Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongxiu He

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In Beijing, China, the rational consumption of energy is affected by the insufficient linkage mechanism of the energy pricing system, the unreasonable price ratio and other issues. This paper combines the characteristics of Beijing’s energy market, putting forward the society-economy equilibrium indicator R maximization taking into consideration the mitigation cost to determine a reasonable price ratio range. Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE model, and dividing four kinds of energy sources into three groups, the impact of price fluctuations of electricity and natural gas on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, Consumer Price Index (CPI, energy consumption and CO2 and SO2 emissions can be simulated for various scenarios. On this basis, the integrated effects of electricity and natural gas price shocks on the Beijing economy and environment can be calculated. The results show that relative to the coal prices, the electricity and natural gas prices in Beijing are currently below reasonable levels; the solution to these unreasonable energy price ratios should begin by improving the energy pricing mechanism, through means such as the establishment of a sound dynamic adjustment mechanism between regulated prices and market prices. This provides a new idea for exploring the rationality of energy price ratios in imperfect competitive energy markets.

  11. Incorporating numerical modelling into estimates of the detection capability of the IMS infrasound network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Pichon, A.; Ceranna, L.

    2011-12-01

    To monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a dedicated International Monitoring System (IMS) is being deployed. Recent global scale observations recorded by this network confirm that its detection capability is highly variable in space and time. Previous studies estimated the radiated source energy from remote observations using empirical yield-scaling relations which account for the along-path stratospheric winds. Although the empirical wind correction reduces the variance in the explosive energy versus pressure relationship, strong variability remains in the yield estimate. Today, numerical modelling techniques provide a basis to better understand the role of different factors describing the source and the atmosphere that influence propagation predictions. In this study, the effects of the source frequency and the stratospheric wind speed are simulated. In order to characterize fine-scale atmospheric structures which are excluded from the current atmospheric specifications, model predictions are further enhanced by the addition of perturbation terms. Thus, a theoretical attenuation relation is developed from massive numerical simulations using the Parabolic Equation method. Compared with previous studies, our approach provides a more realistic physical description of infrasound propagation. We obtain a new relation combining a near-field and far-field term which account for the effects of both geometrical spreading and dissipation on the pressure wave attenuation. By incorporating real ambient infrasound noise at the receivers which significantly limits the ability to detect and identify signals of interest, the minimum detectable source amplitude can be derived in a broad frequency range. Empirical relations between the source spectrum and the yield of explosions are used to infer detection thresholds in tons of TNT equivalent. In the context of the future verification of the CTBT, the obtained attenuation relation quantifies

  12. Incorporating Geological Effects in Modeling of Revegetation Strategies for Salt-Affected Landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke; Bell; Hobbs; George

    1999-07-01

    / This paper synthesizes results of research into the impact that major faults have on dryland salinity and the development of revegetation treatments in the wheatbelt of Western Australia. Currently, landscape planning does not routinely incorporate geology, but this research shows that faults can have a dramatic impact on land and stream salinization and on the effectiveness of revegetation treatments, and evidence exists that other geological features can have a similar influence. This research shows that faults can be identified from airborne magnetic data, they can be assigned a characteristic hydraulic conductivity based on simple borehole tests, and four other geological features that are expected to affect land and stream salinity could be identified in airborne geophysical data. A geological theme map could then be created to which characteristic hydraulic conductivities could be assigned for use in computer groundwater models to improve prediction of the effectiveness of revegetation treatments and thus enhance the landscape planning process. The work highlights the difficulties of using standard sampling and statistical techniques to investigate regional phenomena and presents an integrated approach combining small-scale sampling with broad-scale observations to provide input into a modeling exercise. It is suggested that such approaches are vital if landscape- and regional-scale processes are to be understood and managed. The way in which the problem is perceived (holistically or piecemeal) affects the way treatments are designed and their effectiveness: past approaches have failed to integrate the various scales and processes involved. Effective solutions require an integrated holistic response.KEY WORDS: Dryland salinity; Geology; Landscape; Revegetation integrationhttp://link.springer-ny.com/link/service/journals/00267/bibs/24n1p99.html

  13. An innovative land use regression model incorporating meteorology for exposure analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jason G; Brauer, Michael; Ainslie, Bruce; Steyn, Douw; Larson, Timothy; Buzzelli, Michael

    2008-02-15

    The advent of spatial analysis and geographic information systems (GIS) has led to studies of chronic exposure and health effects based on the rationale that intra-urban variations in ambient air pollution concentrations are as great as inter-urban differences. Such studies typically rely on local spatial covariates (e.g., traffic, land use type) derived from circular areas (buffers) to predict concentrations/exposures at receptor sites, as a means of averaging the annual net effect of meteorological influences (i.e., wind speed, wind direction and insolation). This is the approach taken in the now popular land use regression (LUR) method. However spatial studies of chronic exposures and temporal studies of acute exposures have not been adequately integrated. This paper presents an innovative LUR method implemented in a GIS environment that reflects both temporal and spatial variability and considers the role of meteorology. The new source area LUR integrates wind speed, wind direction and cloud cover/insolation to estimate hourly nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) concentrations from land use types (i.e., road network, commercial land use) and these concentrations are then used as covariates to regress against NO and NO(2) measurements at various receptor sites across the Vancouver region and compared directly with estimates from a regular LUR. The results show that, when variability in seasonal concentration measurements is present, the source area LUR or SA-LUR model is a better option for concentration estimation.

  14. The nonlinear unloading behavior of a typical Ni-based superalloy during hot deformation: a unified elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ming-Song; Lin, Y. C.; Li, Kuo-Kuo; Chen, Jian

    2016-09-01

    In authors' previous work (Chen et al. in Appl Phys A. doi: 10.1007/s00339-016-0371-6, 2016), the nonlinear unloading behavior of a typical Ni-based superalloy was investigated by hot compressive experiments with intermediate unloading-reloading cycles. The characters of unloading curves were discussed in detail, and a new elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model was proposed to describe the nonlinear unloading behavior of the studied Ni-based superalloy. Still, the functional relationships between the deformation temperature, strain rate, pre-strain and the parameters of the proposed constitutive model need to be established. In this study, the effects of deformation temperature, strain rate and pre-strain on the parameters of the new constitutive model proposed in authors' previous work (Chen et al. 2016) are analyzed, and a unified elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model is proposed to predict the unloading behavior at arbitrary deformation temperature, strain rate and pre-strain.

  15. Incorporating classic adsorption isotherms into modern surface complexation models: implications for sorption of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulik, D.A.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Computer-aided surface complexation models (SCM) tend to replace the classic adsorption isotherm (AI) analysis in describing mineral-water interface reactions such as radionuclide sorption onto (hydr) oxides and clays. Any site-binding SCM based on the mole balance of surface sites, in fact, reproduces the (competitive) Langmuir isotherm, optionally amended with electrostatic Coulomb's non-ideal term. In most SCM implementations, it is difficult to incorporate real-surface phenomena (site heterogeneity, lateral interactions, surface condensation) described in classic AI approaches other than Langmuir's. Thermodynamic relations between SCMs and AIs that remained obscure in the past have been recently clarified using new definitions of standard and reference states of surface species [1,2]. On this basis, a method for separating the Langmuir AI into ideal (linear) and non-ideal parts [2] was applied to multi-dentate Langmuir, Frumkin, and BET isotherms. The aim of this work was to obtain the surface activity coefficient terms that make the SCM site mole balance constraints obsolete and, in this way, extend thermodynamic SCMs to cover sorption phenomena described by the respective AIs. The multi-dentate Langmuir term accounts for the site saturation with n-dentate surface species, as illustrated on modeling bi-dentate U VI complexes on goethite or SiO 2 surfaces. The Frumkin term corrects for the lateral interactions of the mono-dentate surface species; in particular, it has the same form as the Coulombic term of the constant-capacitance EDL combined with the Langmuir term. The BET term (three parameters) accounts for more than a monolayer adsorption up to the surface condensation; it can potentially describe the surface precipitation of nickel and other cations on hydroxides and clay minerals. All three non-ideal terms (in GEM SCMs implementation [1,2]) by now are used for non-competing surface species only. Upon 'surface dilution

  16. Constraining parameters in state-of-the-art marine pelagic biogeochemical models. Is it sufficient to use typical observations of standing-stocks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeptien, Ulrike; Dietze, Heiner

    2014-05-01

    In order to constrain potential feedbacks in the climate system, simple pelagic biogeochemical models (BGCMs) are coupled to 3-dimensional ocean-atmosphere models. These so-called earth system models are frequently applied to calculate climate projections. All BGCs rely on a set of rather uncertain parameters. Among them are generally the Michaelis Menten (MM) constants, utilized in the hyperbolic MM- formulation (which specifies the limiting effect of light and nutrients on carbon assimilation by autotrophic phytoplankton). All model parameters are typically tuned in rather subjective trial-and-error exercises where the parameters are changed manually until a "reasonable" similarity with observed standing stocks is achieved. In the present study, we explore with twin experiments (or synthetic ``observations") the demands on observations that would allow for a more objective estimation of model parameters. These parameter retrieval experiments are based on ``perfect" (synthetic) observations which we, step by step, distort to approach realistic conditions. Finally, we confirm our findings with real-world observations. In summary, we find that even modest noise (10%) inherent to observations may hinder the parameter retrieval already. Particularly, the MM constants are hard to constrain. This is of concern since the MM parameters are key to the model`s sensitivity to anticipated changes of the external conditions.

  17. Incorporating food web dynamics into ecological restoration: a modeling approach for river ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Ryan Bellmore; Joseph R. Benjamin; Michael Newsom; Jennifer A. Bountry; Daniel Dombroski

    2017-01-01

    Restoration is frequently aimed at the recovery of target species, but also influences the larger food web in which these species participate. Effects of restoration on this broader network of organisms can influence target species both directly and indirectly via changes in energy flow through food webs. To help incorporate these complexities into river restoration...

  18. Incorporation of the radioprotective molecule cysteamine in model membranes: an NMR study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laval, J.D.; Debouzy, J.C.; Fauvelle, F.; Viret, J.; Fatome, M.

    1995-01-01

    The incorporation of the cysteamine molecule in small unilamellar vesicles was studies using proton NMR technics. A linear inclusion of the radioprotective molecule was firstly observed by increasing the Cysteamine/phospholipid molar ratios, followed by a saturation for the highest ratios. Such results may be adapted to a new galenic form study. (authors). 6 refs., 2 figs

  19. 76 FR 66617 - Airworthiness Directives; Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated Model S-64F Helicopters

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-27

    ...-026-AD; Amendment 39-16835; AD 2011-21-12] RIN 2120-AA64 Airworthiness Directives; Erickson Air-Crane.... SUMMARY: We are adopting a new airworthiness directive (AD) for the Erickson Air-Crane (Erickson Air-Crane..., 2011. ADDRESSES: For service information identified in this AD, contact Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated...

  20. Strategies for Incorporating Women-Specific Sexuality Education into Addiction Treatment Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Raven

    2007-01-01

    This paper advocates for the incorporation of a women-specific sexuality curriculum in the addiction treatment process to aid in sexual healing and provide for aftercare issues. Sexuality in addiction treatment modalities is often approached from a sex-negative stance, or that of sexual victimization. Sexual issues are viewed as addictive in and…

  1. Is our Universe typical?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gurzadyan, V.G.

    1988-01-01

    The problem of typicalness of the Universe - as a dynamical system possessing both regular and chaotic regions of positive measure of phase space, is raised and discussed. Two dynamical systems are considered: 1) The observed Universe as a hierarchy of systems of N graviting bodies; 2) (3+1)-manifold with matter evolving to Wheeler-DeWitt equation in superspace with Hawking boundary condition of compact metrics. It is shown that the observed Universe is typical. There is no unambiguous answer for the second system yet. If it is typical too then the same present state of the Universe could have been originated from an infinite number of different initial conditions the restoration of which is practically impossible at present. 35 refs.; 2 refs

  2. The Cultural Encounters Model: Incorporating Campus Events into the Honors Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfrehm, James; Sullivan, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Honors students are, almost by definition, committed to excellence. As a result, they tend to be overextended (Guzy). They also "tend to be more eager, exploratory, and experienced than their non-honors counterparts" (Achterberg 77). They typically take a full load of coursework while at the same time juggling clubs, learning…

  3. The influence of climatic changes on distribution pattern of six typical Kobresia species in Tibetan Plateau based on MaxEnt model and geographic information system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhongjun; Guo, Ke; Jin, Shulan; Pan, Huahua

    2018-01-01

    The issue that climatic change has great influence on species distribution is currently of great interest in field of biogeography. Six typical Kobresia species are selected from alpine grassland of Tibetan Plateau (TP) as research objects which are the high-quality forage for local husbandry, and their distribution changes are modeled in four periods by using MaxEnt model and GIS technology. The modeling results have shown that the distribution of these six typical Kobresia species in TP was strongly affected by two factors of "the annual precipitation" and "the precipitation in the wettest and driest quarters of the year". The modeling results have also shown that the most suitable habitats of K. pygmeae were located in the area around Qinghai Lake, the Hengduan-Himalayan mountain area, and the hinterland of TP. The most suitable habitats of K. humilis were mainly located in the area around Qinghai Lake and the hinterland of TP during the Last Interglacial period, and gradually merged into a bigger area; K. robusta and K. tibetica were located in the area around Qinghai Lake and the hinterland of TP, but they did not integrate into one area all the time, and K. capillifolia were located in the area around Qinghai Lake and extended to the southwest of the original distributing area, whereas K. macrantha were mainly distributed along the area of the Himalayan mountain chain, which had the smallest distribution area among them, and all these six Kobresia species can be divided into four types of "retreat/expansion" styles according to the changes of suitable habitat areas during the four periods; all these change styles are the result of long-term adaptations of the different species to the local climate changes in regions of TP and show the complexity of relationships between different species and climate. The research results have positive reference value to the protection of species diversity and sustainable development of the local husbandry in TP.

  4. Typical Complexity Numbers

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Typical Complexity Numbers. Say. 1000 tones,; 100 Users,; Transmission every 10 msec. Full Crosstalk cancellation would require. Full cancellation requires a matrix multiplication of order 100*100 for all the tones. 1000*100*100*100 operations every second for the ...

  5. Incorporation of lanthanide (Eu(3+)) ions in ZnS semiconductor quantum dots with a trapped-dopant model and their photoluminescence spectroscopy study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongbo; Liang, Xuhua; Liu, Enzhou; Hu, Xiaoyun; Fan, Jun

    2015-09-18

    Doping quantum dots (QDs) with lanthanide (Ln) ions is promising to modify the optical properties of QDs, but incorporating Ln(3+) ions into QD hosts remains a challenge. In this work, we adopt the trapped-dopant model for fabricating Eu-doped ZnS QDs via direct wet chemical synthesis. Sharp Eu dopant photoluminescence (PL) was observed in the PL spectra of the as-prepared Eu-doped ZnS QDs and the bands at ~590, ~618 and ~695 nm were assigned to transitions from (5)D0 to (7)F1, (7)F2 and (7)F4, respectively. Quenching of the ZnS bandgap PL and enhancement of the Eu dopant PL were observed with increasing Eu(3+) doping concentration, and also, the excitation spectra for Eu emission (618 nm) were similar to the typical excitonic features of the ZnS host. These spectroscopic results, as well as the XRD and EDS data, demonstrated that Eu(3+) ions were incorporated in the ZnS host rather than just on the surface, and the Eu dopant PL was derived from energy transfer from the QD host to Eu(3+) rather than direct excitation of Eu(3+). By surface passivation, the sharp Eu emission was well-separated from the ZnS bandgap emission, which led to a good signal-to-noise ratio for more sensitive detection.

  6. Incorporation of oxygen contribution by plant roots into classical dissolved oxygen deficit model for a subsurface flow treatment wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezbaruah, Achintya N; Zhang, Tian C

    2009-01-01

    It has been long established that plants play major roles in a treatment wetland. However, the role of plants has not been incorporated into wetland models. This study tries to incorporate wetland plants into a biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) model so that the relative contributions of the aerobic and anaerobic processes to meeting BOD can be quantitatively determined. The classical dissolved oxygen (DO) deficit model has been modified to simulate the DO curve for a field subsurface flow constructed wetland (SFCW) treating municipal wastewater. Sensitivities of model parameters have been analyzed. Based on the model it is predicted that in the SFCW under study about 64% BOD are degraded through aerobic routes and 36% is degraded anaerobically. While not exhaustive, this preliminary work should serve as a pointer for further research in wetland model development and to determine the values of some of the parameters used in the modified DO deficit and associated BOD model. It should be noted that nitrogen cycle and effects of temperature have not been addressed in these models for simplicity of model formulation. This paper should be read with this caveat in mind.

  7. Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models: Applicarion to peripheral euro area countries

    OpenAIRE

    Gómez-Puig, Marta; Singh, Manish Kumar; Sosvilla Rivero, Simón, 1961-

    2018-01-01

    This paper highlights the role of multilateral creditors (i.e., the ECB, IMF, ESM etc.) and their preferred creditor status in explaining the sovereign default risk of peripheral euro area (EA) countries. Incorporating lessons from sovereign debt crises in general, and from the Greek debt restructuring in particular, we define the priority structure of sovereigns' creditors that is most relevant for peripheral EA countries in severe crisis episodes. This new priority structure of creditors, t...

  8. A mathematical model to determine incorporated quantities of radioactivity from the measured photometric values of tritium-autoradiographs in neuroanatomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennissen, J.J.

    1981-01-01

    The mathematical/empirical model developed in this paper helps to determine the incorporated radioactivity from the measured photometric values and the exposure time T. Possible errors of autoradiography due to the exposure time or the preparation are taken into consideration by the empirical model. It is shown that the error of appr. 400% appearing in the sole comparison of the measured photometric values can be corrected. The model is valid for neuroanatomy as optical nerves, i.e. neuroanatomical material, were used to develop it. Its application also to the other sections of the central nervous system seems to be justified due to the reduction of errors thus achieved. (orig.) [de

  9. Incorporating wind availability into land use regression modelling of air quality in mountainous high-density urban environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yuan; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ng, Edward

    2017-08-01

    Urban air quality serves as an important function of the quality of urban life. Land use regression (LUR) modelling of air quality is essential for conducting health impacts assessment but more challenging in mountainous high-density urban scenario due to the complexities of the urban environment. In this study, a total of 21 LUR models are developed for seven kinds of air pollutants (gaseous air pollutants CO, NO 2 , NO x , O 3 , SO 2 and particulate air pollutants PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) with reference to three different time periods (summertime, wintertime and annual average of 5-year long-term hourly monitoring data from local air quality monitoring network) in Hong Kong. Under the mountainous high-density urban scenario, we improved the traditional LUR modelling method by incorporating wind availability information into LUR modelling based on surface geomorphometrical analysis. As a result, 269 independent variables were examined to develop the LUR models by using the "ADDRESS" independent variable selection method and stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR). Cross validation has been performed for each resultant model. The results show that wind-related variables are included in most of the resultant models as statistically significant independent variables. Compared with the traditional method, a maximum increase of 20% was achieved in the prediction performance of annual averaged NO 2 concentration level by incorporating wind-related variables into LUR model development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A computational model incorporating neural stem cell dynamics reproduces glioma incidence across the lifespan in the human population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Bauer

    Full Text Available Glioma is the most common form of primary brain tumor. Demographically, the risk of occurrence increases until old age. Here we present a novel computational model to reproduce the probability of glioma incidence across the lifespan. Previous mathematical models explaining glioma incidence are framed in a rather abstract way, and do not directly relate to empirical findings. To decrease this gap between theory and experimental observations, we incorporate recent data on cellular and molecular factors underlying gliomagenesis. Since evidence implicates the adult neural stem cell as the likely cell-of-origin of glioma, we have incorporated empirically-determined estimates of neural stem cell number, cell division rate, mutation rate and oncogenic potential into our model. We demonstrate that our model yields results which match actual demographic data in the human population. In particular, this model accounts for the observed peak incidence of glioma at approximately 80 years of age, without the need to assert differential susceptibility throughout the population. Overall, our model supports the hypothesis that glioma is caused by randomly-occurring oncogenic mutations within the neural stem cell population. Based on this model, we assess the influence of the (experimentally indicated decrease in the number of neural stem cells and increase of cell division rate during aging. Our model provides multiple testable predictions, and suggests that different temporal sequences of oncogenic mutations can lead to tumorigenesis. Finally, we conclude that four or five oncogenic mutations are sufficient for the formation of glioma.

  11. Typicality and reasoning fallacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafir, E B; Smith, E E; Osherson, D N

    1990-05-01

    The work of Tversky and Kahneman on intuitive probability judgment leads to the following prediction: The judged probability that an instance belongs to a category is an increasing function of the typicality of the instance in the category. To test this prediction, subjects in Experiment 1 read a description of a person (e.g., "Linda is 31, bright, ... outspoken") followed by a category. Some subjects rated how typical the person was of the category, while others rated the probability that the person belonged to that category. For categories like bank teller and feminist bank teller: (1) subjects rated the person as more typical of the conjunctive category (a conjunction effect); (2) subjects rated it more probable that the person belonged to the conjunctive category (a conjunction fallacy); and (3) the magnitudes of the conjunction effect and fallacy were highly correlated. Experiment 2 documents an inclusion fallacy, wherein subjects judge, for example, "All bank tellers are conservative" to be more probable than "All feminist bank tellers are conservative." In Experiment 3, results parallel to those of Experiment 1 were obtained with respect to the inclusion fallacy.

  12. Incorporating regime metrics into latent variable dynamic models to detect early-warning signals of functional changes in fisheries ecology

    OpenAIRE

    Trifonova, N; Duplisea, D; Kenny, A; Maxwell, D; Tucker, A

    2014-01-01

    In this study, dynamic Bayesian networks have been applied to predict future biomass of geographically different but functionally equivalent fish species. A latent variable is incorporated to model functional collapse, where the underlying food web structure dramatically changes irrevocably (known as a regime shift). We examined if the use of a hidden variable can reflect changes in the trophic dynamics of the system and also whether the inclusion of recognised statistical metrics would impro...

  13. Anticipating potential biodiversity conflicts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: Incorporating land cover information with Species Distribution Models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Blanchard, R

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available % of biodiversity importance. Anticipating potential biodiversity confl icts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: Incorporating land cover information with Species Distribution Models R BLANCHARD1, DR P O?FARRELL1 AND PROF. D RICHARDSON2 1CSIR Natural... Resources and the Environment, PO Box 320, Stellenbosch, 7599, South Africa 2Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa Email: rblanchard@csir.co.za ? www...

  14. Incorporating environmental attitudes in discrete choice models: an exploration of the utility of the awareness of consequences scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, David; Mariel, Petr; Hess, Stephane

    2015-02-01

    Environmental economists are increasingly interested in better understanding how people cognitively organise their beliefs and attitudes towards environmental change in order to identify key motives and barriers that stimulate or prevent action. In this paper, we explore the utility of a commonly used psychometric scale, the awareness of consequences (AC) scale, in order to better understand stated choices. The main contribution of the paper is that it provides a novel approach to incorporate attitudinal information into discrete choice models for environmental valuation: firstly, environmental attitudes are incorporated using a reinterpretation of the classical AC scale recently proposed by Ryan and Spash (2012); and, secondly, attitudinal data is incorporated as latent variables under a hybrid choice modelling framework. This novel approach is applied to data from a survey conducted in the Basque Country (Spain) in 2008 aimed at valuing land-use policies in a Natura 2000 Network site. The results are relevant to policy-making because choice models that are able to accommodate underlying environmental attitudes may help in designing more effective environmental policies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. [Incorporation of an organic MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) and testing of the revised model using independent data sources]. [MAGIC Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T.J.

    1992-09-01

    A project was initiated in March, 1992 to (1) incorporate a rigorous organic acid representation, based on empirical data and geochemical considerations, into the MAGIC model of acidification response, and (2) test the revised model using three sets of independent data. After six months of performance, the project is on schedule and the majority of the tasks outlined for Year 1 have been successfully completed. Major accomplishments to data include development of the organic acid modeling approach, using data from the Adirondack Lakes Survey Corporation (ALSC), and coupling the organic acid model with MAGIC for chemical hindcast comparisons. The incorporation of an organic acid representation into MAGIC can account for much of the discrepancy earlier observed between MAGIC hindcasts and paleolimnological reconstructions of preindustrial pH and alkalinity for 33 statistically-selected Adirondack lakes. Additional work is on-going for model calibration and testing with data from two whole-catchment artificial acidification projects. Results obtained thus far are being prepared as manuscripts for submission to the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

  16. Evaluation of the AnnAGNPS Model for Predicting Runoff and Nutrient Export in a Typical Small Watershed in the Hilly Region of Taihu Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Luo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The application of hydrological and water quality models is an efficient approach to better understand the processes of environmental deterioration. This study evaluated the ability of the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS model to predict runoff, total nitrogen (TN and total phosphorus (TP loading in a typical small watershed of a hilly region near Taihu Lake, China. Runoff was calibrated and validated at both an annual and monthly scale, and parameter sensitivity analysis was performed for TN and TP before the two water quality components were calibrated. The results showed that the model satisfactorily simulated runoff at annual and monthly scales, both during calibration and validation processes. Additionally, results of parameter sensitivity analysis showed that the parameters Fertilizer rate, Fertilizer organic, Canopy cover and Fertilizer inorganic were more sensitive to TN output. In terms of TP, the parameters Residue mass ratio, Fertilizer rate, Fertilizer inorganic and Canopy cover were the most sensitive. Based on these sensitive parameters, calibration was performed. TN loading produced satisfactory results for both the calibration and validation processes, whereas the performance of TP loading was slightly poor. The simulation results showed that AnnAGNPS has the potential to be used as a valuable tool for the planning and management of watersheds.

  17. Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Conor P. McGowan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

  18. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie; Yang, Jinyan; Zhuang, Qianlai; Harden, Jennifer W.; McGuire, A. David; Liu, Yaling; Wang, Gangsheng; Gu, Lianhong

    2015-01-01

    Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = −0.43 to −0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

  19. Simplex network modeling for press-molded ceramic bodies incorporated with granite waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedroti, L.G.; Vieira, C.M.F.; Alexandre, J.; Monteiro, S.N.; Xavier, G.C.

    2012-01-01

    Extrusion of a clay body is the most commonly applied process in the ceramic industries for manufacturing structural block. Nowadays, the assembly of such blocks through a fitting system that facilitates the final mounting is gaining attention owing to the saving in material and reducing in the cost of the building construction. In this work, the ideal composition of clay bodies incorporated with granite powder waste was investigated for the production of press-molded ceramic blocks. An experimental design was applied to determine the optimum properties and microstructures involving not only the precursors compositions but also the press and temperature conditions. Press load from 15 ton and temperatures from 850 to 1050°C were considered. The results indicated that varying mechanical strength of 2 MPa to 20 MPa and varying water absorption of 19% to 30%. (author)

  20. Incorporation of a Generalized Data Assimilation Module within a Global Photospheric Flux Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-31

    Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION...Traditional Photospheric Magnetic Flux Synoptic Maps .........................................................1 2.2 Photospheric Flux Transport Models...4 3. WH model evolved synoptic map (latitude vs. longitude

  1. Incorporating Pass-Phrase Dependent Background Models for Text-Dependent Speaker Verification

    OpenAIRE

    Sarkar, A. K.; Tan, Zheng-Hua

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose pass-phrase dependent background models (PBMs) for text-dependent (TD) speaker verification (SV) to integrate the pass-phrase identification process into the conventional TD-SV system, where a PBM is derived from a text-independent background model through adaptation using the utterances of a particular pass-phrase. During training, pass-phrase specific target speaker models are derived from the particular PBM using the training data for the respective target model. ...

  2. A Mass Balance Model for Designing Green Roof Systems that Incorporate a Cistern for Re-Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoj Chopra

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Green roofs, which have been used for several decades in many parts of the world, offer a unique and sustainable approach to stormwater management. Within this paper, evidence is presented on water retention for an irrigated green roof system. The presented green roof design results in a water retention volume on site. A first principle mass balance computer model is introduced to assist with the design of these green roof systems which incorporate a cistern to capture and reuse runoff waters for irrigation of the green roof. The model is used to estimate yearly stormwater retention volume for different cistern storage volumes. Additionally, the Blaney and Criddle equation is evaluated for estimation of monthly evapotranspiration rates for irrigated systems and incorporated into the model. This is done so evapotranspiration rates can be calculated for regions where historical data does not exist, allowing the model to be used anywhere historical weather data are available. This model is developed and discussed within this paper as well as compared to experimental results.

  3. Using stochastic models to incorporate spatial and temporal variability [Exercise 14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carolyn Hull Sieg; Rudy M. King; Fred Van Dyke

    2003-01-01

    To this point, our analysis of population processes and viability in the western prairie fringed orchid has used only deterministic models. In this exercise, we conduct a similar analysis, using a stochastic model instead. This distinction is of great importance to population biology in general and to conservation biology in particular. In deterministic models,...

  4. Investigation of a growth model incorporating density dependence for the mackerel management plan simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunel, T.P.A.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a framework to model density dependent growth for the North East Atlantic mackerel. The model used is the classical von Bertalanffy equation, but modified so that growth is reduced when stock size increases. The model developed was able to reproduce quite closely the trends in

  5. Incorporating shape constraints in generalized additive modelling of the height-diameter relationship for Norway spruce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya Pya

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Measurements of tree heights and diameters are essential in forest assessment and modelling. Tree heights are used for estimating timber volume, site index and other important variables related to forest growth and yield, succession and carbon budget models. However, the diameter at breast height (dbh can be more accurately obtained and at lower cost, than total tree height. Hence, generalized height-diameter (h-d models that predict tree height from dbh, age and other covariates are needed. For a more flexible but biologically plausible estimation of covariate effects we use shape constrained generalized additive models as an extension of existing h-d model approaches. We use causal site parameters such as index of aridity to enhance the generality and causality of the models and to enable predictions under projected changeable climatic conditions. Methods: We develop unconstrained generalized additive models (GAM and shape constrained generalized additive models (SCAM for investigating the possible effects of tree-specific parameters such as tree age, relative diameter at breast height, and site-specific parameters such as index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature during vegetation period, on the h-d relationship of forests in Lower Saxony, Germany. Results: Some of the derived effects, e.g. effects of age, index of aridity and sum of daily mean temperature have significantly non-linear pattern. The need for using SCAM results from the fact that some of the model effects show partially implausible patterns especially at the boundaries of data ranges. The derived model predicts monotonically increasing levels of tree height with increasing age and temperature sum and decreasing aridity and social rank of a tree within a stand. The definition of constraints leads only to marginal or minor decline in the model statistics like AIC. An observed structured spatial trend in tree height is modelled via 2-dimensional surface

  6. Integrative modelling of animal movement: incorporating in situ habitat and behavioural information for a migratory marine predator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bestley, Sophie; Jonsen, Ian D; Hindell, Mark A; Guinet, Christophe; Charrassin, Jean-Benoît

    2013-01-07

    A fundamental goal in animal ecology is to quantify how environmental (and other) factors influence individual movement, as this is key to understanding responsiveness of populations to future change. However, quantitative interpretation of individual-based telemetry data is hampered by the complexity of, and error within, these multi-dimensional data. Here, we present an integrative hierarchical Bayesian state-space modelling approach where, for the first time, the mechanistic process model for the movement state of animals directly incorporates both environmental and other behavioural information, and observation and process model parameters are estimated within a single model. When applied to a migratory marine predator, the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina), we find the switch from directed to resident movement state was associated with colder water temperatures, relatively short dive bottom time and rapid descent rates. The approach presented here can have widespread utility for quantifying movement-behaviour (diving or other)-environment relationships across species and systems.

  7. A mathematical model for maximizing the value of phase 3 drug development portfolios incorporating budget constraints and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Nitin R; Ankolekar, Suresh; Antonijevic, Zoran; Rajicic, Natasa

    2013-05-10

    We describe a value-driven approach to optimizing pharmaceutical portfolios. Our approach incorporates inputs from research and development and commercial functions by simultaneously addressing internal and external factors. This approach differentiates itself from current practices in that it recognizes the impact of study design parameters, sample size in particular, on the portfolio value. We develop an integer programming (IP) model as the basis for Bayesian decision analysis to optimize phase 3 development portfolios using expected net present value as the criterion. We show how this framework can be used to determine optimal sample sizes and trial schedules to maximize the value of a portfolio under budget constraints. We then illustrate the remarkable flexibility of the IP model to answer a variety of 'what-if' questions that reflect situations that arise in practice. We extend the IP model to a stochastic IP model to incorporate uncertainty in the availability of drugs from earlier development phases for phase 3 development in the future. We show how to use stochastic IP to re-optimize the portfolio development strategy over time as new information accumulates and budget changes occur. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Group spike-and-slab lasso generalized linear models for disease prediction and associated genes detection by incorporating pathway information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Zaixiang; Shen, Yueping; Li, Yan; Zhang, Xinyan; Wen, Jia; Qian, Chen'ao; Zhuang, Wenzhuo; Shi, Xinghua; Yi, Nengjun

    2018-03-15

    Large-scale molecular data have been increasingly used as an important resource for prognostic prediction of diseases and detection of associated genes. However, standard approaches for omics data analysis ignore the group structure among genes encoded in functional relationships or pathway information. We propose new Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear models, called group spike-and-slab lasso GLMs, for predicting disease outcomes and detecting associated genes by incorporating large-scale molecular data and group structures. The proposed model employs a mixture double-exponential prior for coefficients that induces self-adaptive shrinkage amount on different coefficients. The group information is incorporated into the model by setting group-specific parameters. We have developed a fast and stable deterministic algorithm to fit the proposed hierarchal GLMs, which can perform variable selection within groups. We assess the performance of the proposed method on several simulated scenarios, by varying the overlap among groups, group size, number of non-null groups, and the correlation within group. Compared with existing methods, the proposed method provides not only more accurate estimates of the parameters but also better prediction. We further demonstrate the application of the proposed procedure on three cancer datasets by utilizing pathway structures of genes. Our results show that the proposed method generates powerful models for predicting disease outcomes and detecting associated genes. The methods have been implemented in a freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/). nyi@uab.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  9. Incorporation of Satellite Data and Uncertainty in a Nationwide Groundwater Recharge Model in New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogier Westerhoff

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A nationwide model of groundwater recharge for New Zealand (NGRM, as described in this paper, demonstrated the benefits of satellite data and global models to improve the spatial definition of recharge and the estimation of recharge uncertainty. NGRM was inspired by the global-scale WaterGAP model but with the key development of rainfall recharge calculation on scales relevant to national- and catchment-scale studies (i.e., a 1 km × 1 km cell size and a monthly timestep in the period 2000–2014 provided by satellite data (i.e., MODIS-derived evapotranspiration, AET and vegetation in combination with national datasets of rainfall, elevation, soil and geology. The resulting nationwide model calculates groundwater recharge estimates, including their uncertainty, consistent across the country, which makes the model unique compared to all other New Zealand estimates targeted towards groundwater recharge. At the national scale, NGRM estimated an average recharge of 2500 m 3 /s, or 298 mm/year, with a model uncertainty of 17%. Those results were similar to the WaterGAP model, but the improved input data resulted in better spatial characteristics of recharge estimates. Multiple uncertainty analyses led to these main conclusions: the NGRM model could give valuable initial estimates in data-sparse areas, since it compared well to most ground-observed lysimeter data and local recharge models; and the nationwide input data of rainfall and geology caused the largest uncertainty in the model equation, which revealed that the satellite data could improve spatial characteristics without significantly increasing the uncertainty. Clearly the increasing volume and availability of large-scale satellite data is creating more opportunities for the application of national-scale models at the catchment, and smaller, scales. This should result in improved utility of these models including provision of initial estimates in data-sparse areas. Topics for future

  10. Effects of transport model alternatives incorporating precipitation on the performance of engineered barriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohi, Takao; Miyahara, Kaname; Naito, Morimasa

    1996-01-01

    The migration of radionuclide through bentonite was analyzed by alternative models considering the precipitation caused by decay-chain ingrowth. In the realistic model, the temporal and spacial isotopic ratio in bentonite was taken into account for determining the shared solubility for each radionuclide. The release rate of radionuclide from the outer surface of bentonite to surrounding rock is generally lower in such realistic analysis considering precipitation in bentonite than calculated by the model neglecting precipitation. This result shows the model not considering such effects is mostly conservative for the safety assessment

  11. Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Temme

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

  12. Laboratory Testing, Characterization and Mathematical Modeling of the Moniwrist III by Ross-Hime Designs, Incorporated

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Skormin, Victor A

    2005-01-01

    .... It is proposed to enhance the system performance through development of an optimal comptroller extending the conventional state-variable and model reference control laws, with dynamic programming...

  13. The nonlinear unloading behavior of a typical Ni-based superalloy during hot deformation: a new elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ming-Song; Lin, Y. C.; Li, Kuo-Kuo; Chen, Jian

    2016-09-01

    The nonlinear unloading behavior of a typical Ni-based superalloy is investigated by hot compressive experiments with intermediate unloading-reloading cycles. The experimental results show that there are at least four types of unloading curves. However, it is found that there is no essential difference among four types of unloading curves. The variation curves of instantaneous Young's modulus with stress for all types of unloading curves include four segments, i.e., three linear elastic segments (segments I, II, and III) and one subsequent nonlinear elastic segment (segment IV). The instantaneous Young's modulus of segments I and III is approximately equal to that of reloading process, while smaller than that of segment II. In the nonlinear elastic segment, the instantaneous Young's modulus linearly decreases with the decrease in stress. In addition, the relationship between stress and strain rate can be accurately expressed by the hyperbolic sine function. This study includes two parts. In the present part, the characters of unloading curves are discussed in detail, and a new elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model is proposed to describe the nonlinear unloading behavior based on the experimental findings. While in the latter part (Chen et al. in Appl Phys A. doi: 10.1007/s00339-016-0385-0, 2016), the effects of deformation temperature, strain rate, and pre-strain on the parameters of this new constitutive model are analyzed, and a unified elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model is proposed to predict the unloading behavior at arbitrary deformation temperature, strain rate, and pre-strain.

  14. The nonlinear unloading behavior of a typical Ni-based superalloy during hot deformation. A new elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ming-Song; Li, Kuo-Kuo; Lin, Y.C.; Chen, Jian

    2016-01-01

    The nonlinear unloading behavior of a typical Ni-based superalloy is investigated by hot compressive experiments with intermediate unloading-reloading cycles. The experimental results show that there are at least four types of unloading curves. However, it is found that there is no essential difference among four types of unloading curves. The variation curves of instantaneous Young's modulus with stress for all types of unloading curves include four segments, i.e., three linear elastic segments (segments I, II, and III) and one subsequent nonlinear elastic segment (segment IV). The instantaneous Young's modulus of segments I and III is approximately equal to that of reloading process, while smaller than that of segment II. In the nonlinear elastic segment, the instantaneous Young's modulus linearly decreases with the decrease in stress. In addition, the relationship between stress and strain rate can be accurately expressed by the hyperbolic sine function. This study includes two parts. In the present part, the characters of unloading curves are discussed in detail, and a new elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model is proposed to describe the nonlinear unloading behavior based on the experimental findings. While in the latter part (Chen et al. in Appl Phys A. doi:10.1007/s00339-016-0385-0, 2016), the effects of deformation temperature, strain rate, and pre-strain on the parameters of this new constitutive model are analyzed, and a unified elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model is proposed to predict the unloading behavior at arbitrary deformation temperature, strain rate, and pre-strain. (orig.)

  15. Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P.; Norton, Andrew S.; Storm, Daniel J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.; Heisy, Dennis M.

    2018-01-01

    Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes-of-death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause-specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause-of-death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event-time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause-of-death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause-of-death assignment in modeling of cause-specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause-specific survival data for white-tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection

  16. Incorporating NDVI in a gravity model setting to describe spatio-temporal patterns of Lyme borreliosis incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios, J. M.; Verstraeten, W. W.; Farifteh, J.; Maes, P.; Aerts, J. M.; Coppin, P.

    2012-04-01

    Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common tick-borne disease in Europe and incidence growth has been reported in several European countries during the last decade. LB is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and the main vector of this pathogen in Europe is the tick Ixodes ricinus. LB incidence and spatial spread is greatly dependent on environmental conditions impacting habitat, demography and trophic interactions of ticks and the wide range of organisms ticks parasite. The landscape configuration is also a major determinant of tick habitat conditions and -very important- of the fashion and intensity of human interaction with vegetated areas, i.e. human exposure to the pathogen. Hence, spatial notions as distance and adjacency between urban and vegetated environments are related to human exposure to tick bites and, thus, to risk. This work tested the adequacy of a gravity model setting to model the observed spatio-temporal pattern of LB as a function of location and size of urban and vegetated areas and the seasonal and annual change in the vegetation dynamics as expressed by MODIS NDVI. Opting for this approach implies an analogy with Newton's law of universal gravitation in which the attraction forces between two bodies are directly proportional to the bodies mass and inversely proportional to distance. Similar implementations have proven useful in fields like trade modeling, health care service planning, disease mapping among other. In our implementation, the size of human settlements and vegetated systems and the distance separating these landscape elements are considered the 'bodies'; and the 'attraction' between them is an indicator of exposure to pathogen. A novel element of this implementation is the incorporation of NDVI to account for the seasonal and annual variation in risk. The importance of incorporating this indicator of vegetation activity resides in the fact that alterations of LB incidence pattern observed the last decade have been ascribed

  17. Incorporating additional tree and environmental variables in a lodgepole pine stem profile model

    Science.gov (United States)

    John C. Byrne

    1993-01-01

    A new variable-form segmented stem profile model is developed for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees from the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. I improved estimates of stem diameter by predicting two of the model coefficients with linear equations using a measure of tree form, defined as a ratio of dbh and total height. Additional improvements were...

  18. Incorporating Response Times in Item Response Theory Models of Reading Comprehension Fluency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Shiyang

    2017-01-01

    With the online assessment becoming mainstream and the recording of response times becoming straightforward, the importance of response times as a measure of psychological constructs has been recognized and the literature of modeling times has been growing during the last few decades. Previous studies have tried to formulate models and theories to…

  19. Approaches to incorporating climate change effects in state and transition simulation models of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky K. Kerns; Miles A. Hemstrom; David Conklin; Gabriel I. Yospin; Bart Johnson; Dominique Bachelet; Scott Bridgham

    2012-01-01

    Understanding landscape vegetation dynamics often involves the use of scientifically-based modeling tools that are capable of testing alternative management scenarios given complex ecological, management, and social conditions. State-and-transition simulation model (STSM) frameworks and software such as PATH and VDDT are commonly used tools that simulate how landscapes...

  20. LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

    2011-01-01

    This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

  1. Building out a Measurement Model to Incorporate Complexities of Testing in the Language Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Mark; Moore, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides a summary of a novel and integrated way to think about the item response models (most often used in measurement applications in social science areas such as psychology, education, and especially testing of various kinds) from the viewpoint of the statistical theory of generalized linear and nonlinear mixed models. In addition,…

  2. Mathematical Modelling in the Junior Secondary Years: An Approach Incorporating Mathematical Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, James; Carter, Merilyn; Cooper, Tom

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical models are conceptual processes that use mathematics to describe, explain, and/or predict the behaviour of complex systems. This article is written for teachers of mathematics in the junior secondary years (including out-of-field teachers of mathematics) who may be unfamiliar with mathematical modelling, to explain the steps involved…

  3. A LabVIEW model incorporating an open-loop arterial impedance and a closed-loop circulatory system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, R T; Lucas, C L; Cascio, W E; Johnson, T A

    2005-11-01

    While numerous computer models exist for the circulatory system, many are limited in scope, contain unwanted features or incorporate complex components specific to unique experimental situations. Our purpose was to develop a basic, yet multifaceted, computer model of the left heart and systemic circulation in LabVIEW having universal appeal without sacrificing crucial physiologic features. The program we developed employs Windkessel-type impedance models in several open-loop configurations and a closed-loop model coupling a lumped impedance and ventricular pressure source. The open-loop impedance models demonstrate afterload effects on arbitrary aortic pressure/flow inputs. The closed-loop model catalogs the major circulatory waveforms with changes in afterload, preload, and left heart properties. Our model provides an avenue for expanding the use of the ventricular equations through closed-loop coupling that includes a basic coronary circuit. Tested values used for the afterload components and the effects of afterload parameter changes on various waveforms are consistent with published data. We conclude that this model offers the ability to alter several circulatory factors and digitally catalog the most salient features of the pressure/flow waveforms employing a user-friendly platform. These features make the model a useful instructional tool for students as well as a simple experimental tool for cardiovascular research.

  4. Incorporating Protein Biosynthesis into the Saccharomyces cerevisiae Genome-scale Metabolic Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olivares Hernandez, Roberto

    Based on stoichiometric biochemical equations that occur into the cell, the genome-scale metabolic models can quantify the metabolic fluxes, which are regarded as the final representation of the physiological state of the cell. For Saccharomyces Cerevisiae the genome scale model has been......, translation initiation, translation elongation, translation termination, translation elongation, and mRNA decay. Considering these information from the mechanisms of transcription and translation, we will include this stoichiometric reactions into the genome scale model for S. Cerevisiae to obtain the first...

  5. Alzheimer's disease: analysis of a mathematical model incorporating the role of prions

    OpenAIRE

    Helal, Mohamed; Hingant, Erwan; Pujo-Menjouet, Laurent; Webb, Glenn F.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a mathematical model of the in vivo progression of Alzheimer's disease with focus on the role of prions in memory impairment. Our model consists of differential equations that describe the dynamic formation of {\\beta}-amyloid plaques based on the concentrations of A{\\beta} oligomers, PrPC proteins, and the A{\\beta}-x-PrPC complex, which are hypothesized to be responsible for synaptic toxicity. We prove the well-posedness of the model and provided stability results for its unique ...

  6. Incorporating Floating Surface Objects into a Fully Dispersive Surface Wave Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-19

    Decimation and Interpolation (PDI) Method was dded to NHWAVE by Shi et al. (2015) , who confirmed that the dy- amic pressure can be modeled accurately... cluster Farber located at he University of Delaware. Using 48 cores, it took about 8 h for a imulation of 10 0 0 s. The 10 m water depth was selected to re... decimation and interpolation (PDI) method for a baroclinic non-hydrostatic model. Ocean Mod. 96, 265–279 . 26 M.D. Orzech et al. / Ocean Modelling 102 (2016

  7. On Optimizing H. 264/AVC Rate Control by Improving R-D Model and Incorporating HVS Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang Gangyi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The state-of-the-art JVT-G012 rate control algorithm of H.264 is improved from two aspects. First, the quadratic rate-distortion (R-D model is modified based on both empirical observations and theoretical analysis. Second, based on the existing physiological and psychological research findings of human vision, the rate control algorithm is optimized by incorporating the main characteristics of the human visual system (HVS such as contrast sensitivity, multichannel theory, and masking effect. Experiments are conducted, and experimental results show that the improved algorithm can simultaneously enhance the overall subjective visual quality and improve the rate control precision effectively.

  8. Improving the phenotype predictions of a yeast genome-scale metabolic model by incorporating enzymatic constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanchez, Benjamin J.; Zhang, Xi-Cheng; Nilsson, Avlant

    2017-01-01

    , which act as limitations on metabolic fluxes, are not taken into account. Here, we present GECKO, a method that enhances a GEM to account for enzymes as part of reactions, thereby ensuring that each metabolic flux does not exceed its maximum capacity, equal to the product of the enzyme's abundance...... and turnover number. We applied GECKO to a Saccharomyces cerevisiae GEM and demonstrated that the new model could correctly describe phenotypes that the previous model could not, particularly under high enzymatic pressure conditions, such as yeast growing on different carbon sources in excess, coping...... with stress, or overexpressing a specific pathway. GECKO also allows to directly integrate quantitative proteomics data; by doing so, we significantly reduced flux variability of the model, in over 60% of metabolic reactions. Additionally, the model gives insight into the distribution of enzyme usage between...

  9. Characterization of Steels Using a Revised Kinematic Hardening Model Incorporating Bauschinger Effect

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Parker, Anthony

    2002-01-01

    A new variant of the nonlinear kinematic hardening model is proposed that accommodates both nonlinear and linear strain hardening during initial tensile loading and reduced elastic modulus during initial load reversal...

  10. Forecasting energy consumption using a grey model improved by incorporating genetic programming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yi-Shian; Tong, Lee-Ing

    2011-01-01

    Energy consumption is an important economic index, which reflects the industrial development of a city or a country. Forecasting energy consumption by conventional statistical methods usually requires the making of assumptions such as the normal distribution of energy consumption data or on a large sample size. However, the data collected on energy consumption are often very few or non-normal. Since a grey forecasting model, based on grey theory, can be constructed for at least four data points or ambiguity data, it can be adopted to forecast energy consumption. In some cases, however, a grey forecasting model may yield large forecasting errors. To minimize such errors, this study develops an improved grey forecasting model, which combines residual modification with genetic programming sign estimation. Finally, a real case of Chinese energy consumption is considered to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting model.

  11. Simulation of a severe convective storm using a numerical model with explicitly incorporated aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lompar, Miloš; Ćurić, Mladjen; Romanic, Djordje

    2017-09-01

    Despite an important role the aerosols play in all stages of cloud lifecycle, their representation in numerical weather prediction models is often rather crude. This paper investigates the effects the explicit versus implicit inclusion of aerosols in a microphysics parameterization scheme in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) - Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model has on cloud dynamics and microphysics. The testbed selected for this study is a severe mesoscale convective system with supercells that struck west and central parts of Serbia in the afternoon of July 21, 2014. Numerical products of two model runs, i.e. one with aerosols explicitly (WRF-AE) included and another with aerosols implicitly (WRF-AI) assumed, are compared against precipitation measurements from surface network of rain gauges, as well as against radar and satellite observations. The WRF-AE model accurately captured the transportation of dust from the north Africa over the Mediterranean and to the Balkan region. On smaller scales, both models displaced the locations of clouds situated above west and central Serbia towards southeast and under-predicted the maximum values of composite radar reflectivity. Similar to satellite images, WRF-AE shows the mesoscale convective system as a merged cluster of cumulonimbus clouds. Both models over-predicted the precipitation amounts; WRF-AE over-predictions are particularly pronounced in the zones of light rain, while WRF-AI gave larger outliers. Unlike WRF-AI, the WRF-AE approach enables the modelling of time evolution and influx of aerosols into the cloud which could be of practical importance in weather forecasting and weather modification. Several likely causes for discrepancies between models and observations are discussed and prospects for further research in this field are outlined.

  12. Debris flow analysis with a one dimensional dynamic run-out model that incorporates entrained material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna, Byron Quan; Remaître, Alexandre; van Asch, Theo; Malet, Jean-Philippe; van Westen, Cees

    2010-05-01

    Estimating the magnitude and the intensity of rapid landslides like debris flows is fundamental to evaluate quantitatively the hazard in a specific location. Intensity varies through the travelled course of the flow and can be described by physical features such as deposited volume, velocities, height of the flow, impact forces and pressures. Dynamic run-out models are able to characterize the distribution of the material, its intensity and define the zone where the elements will experience an impact. These models can provide valuable inputs for vulnerability and risk calculations. However, most dynamic run-out models assume a constant volume during the motion of the flow, ignoring the important role of material entrained along its path. Consequently, they neglect that the increase of volume enhances the mobility of the flow and can significantly influence the size of the potential impact area. An appropriate erosion mechanism needs to be established in the analyses of debris flows that will improve the results of dynamic modeling and consequently the quantitative evaluation of risk. The objective is to present and test a simple 1D debris flow model with a material entrainment concept based on limit equilibrium considerations and the generation of excess pore water pressure through undrained loading of the in situ bed material. The debris flow propagation model is based on a one dimensional finite difference solution of a depth-averaged form of the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid motions. The flow is treated as a laminar one phase material, which behavior is controlled by a visco-plastic Coulomb-Bingham rheology. The model parameters are evaluated and the model performance is tested on a debris flow event that occurred in 2003 in the Faucon torrent (Southern French Alps).

  13. Statistical inference and modelling for nosocomial infections and the incorporation of whole genome sequence data

    OpenAIRE

    Worby, Colin J.

    2013-01-01

    Healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs) remain a problem worldwide, and can cause severe illness and death. The increasing level of antibiotic resistance among bacteria that cause HCAIs limits infection treatment options, and is a major concern. Statistical modelling is a vital tool in developing an understanding of HCAI transmission dynamics. In this thesis, stochastic epidemic models are developed and used with the aim of investigating methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) tra...

  14. Creating a process for incorporating epidemiological modelling into outbreak management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akselrod, Hana; Mercon, Monica; Kirkeby Risoe, Petter; Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey; McGovern, Joanne; Bogucki, Sandy

    2012-01-01

    Modern computational models of infectious diseases greatly enhance our ability to understand new infectious threats and assess the effects of different interventions. The recently-released CDC Framework for Preventing Infectious Diseases calls for increased use of predictive modelling of epidemic emergence for public health preparedness. Currently, the utility of these technologies in preparedness and response to outbreaks is limited by gaps between modelling output and information requirements for incident management. The authors propose an operational structure that will facilitate integration of modelling capabilities into action planning for outbreak management, using the Incident Command System (ICS) and Synchronization Matrix framework. It is designed to be adaptable and scalable for use by state and local planners under the National Response Framework (NRF) and Emergency Support Function #8 (ESF-8). Specific epidemiological modelling requirements are described, and integrated with the core processes for public health emergency decision support. These methods can be used in checklist format to align prospective or real-time modelling output with anticipated decision points, and guide strategic situational assessments at the community level. It is anticipated that formalising these processes will facilitate translation of the CDC's policy guidance from theory to practice during public health emergencies involving infectious outbreaks.

  15. Enhanced stability of car-following model upon incorporation of short-term driving memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Da-Wei; Shi, Zhong-Ke; Ai, Wen-Huan

    2017-06-01

    Based on the full velocity difference model, a new car-following model is developed to investigate the effect of short-term driving memory on traffic flow in this paper. Short-term driving memory is introduced as the influence factor of driver's anticipation behavior. The stability condition of the newly developed model is derived and the modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equation is constructed to describe the traffic behavior near the critical point. Via numerical method, evolution of a small perturbation is investigated firstly. The results show that the improvement of this new car-following model over the previous ones lies in the fact that the new model can improve the traffic stability. Starting and breaking processes of vehicles in the signalized intersection are also investigated. The numerical simulations illustrate that the new model can successfully describe the driver's anticipation behavior, and that the efficiency and safety of the vehicles passing through the signalized intersection are improved by considering short-term driving memory.

  16. A new mathematical model of gastrointestinal transit incorporating age- and gender-dependent physiological parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stubbs, J.B.

    1992-01-01

    As part of the revision by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) of its report on Reference Man, an extensive review of the literature regarding anatomy and morphology of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract has been completed. Data on age- and gender-dependent GI physiology and motility may be included in the proposed ICRP report. A new mathematical model describing the transit of substances through the GI tract as well as the absorption and secretion of material in the GI tract has been developed. This mathematical description of GI tract kinetics utilizes more physiologically accurate transit processes than the mathematically simple, but nonphysiological, GI tract model that was used in ICRP Report 30. The proposed model uses a combination of zero- and first-order kinetics to describe motility. Some of the physiological parameters that the new model accounts for include sex, age, pathophysiological condition and meal phase (solid versus liquid). A computer algorithm, written in BASIC, based on this new model has been derived and results are compared to those of the ICRP-30 model

  17. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

    2013-04-01

    The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique

  18. Incorporation of the time aspect into the liability-threshold model for case-control-family data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cederkvist, Luise; Holst, Klaus K.; Andersen, Klaus K.

    2017-01-01

    Familial aggregation and the role of genetic and environmental factors can be investigated through family studies analysed using the liability-threshold model. The liability-threshold model ignores the timing of events including the age of disease onset and right censoring, which can lead...... to estimates that are difficult to interpret and are potentially biased. We incorporate the time aspect into the liability-threshold model for case-control-family data following the same approach that has been applied in the twin setting. Thus, the data are considered as arising from a competing risks setting...... and inverse probability of censoring weights are used to adjust for right censoring. In the case-control-family setting, recognising the existence of competing events is highly relevant to the sampling of control probands. Because of the presence of multiple family members who may be censored at different...

  19. A model for determination of human foetus irradiation during intrauterine development when the mother incorporates iodine 131

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasilev, V.; Doncheva, B.

    1989-01-01

    A model is presented for irradiation calculation of human foetus during weeks 8-15 of the intrauterine development, when the mother chronically incorporates iodine 131. This period is critical for the nervous system of the foetus. Compared to some other author's models, the method proposed eliminates some uncertainties and takes into account the changes in the activity of mother's thyroid in time. The model is built on the base of data from 131 I-kinetics of pregnant women and experimental mice. A formula is proposed for total foetus irradiation calculation including: the internal γ and β irradiation; the external γ and β irradiation from the mother as a whole; and the external γ irradiation from the mother's thyroid

  20. Response surface modeling-based source contribution analysis and VOC emission control policy assessment in a typical ozone-polluted urban Shunde, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Zhiqiang; Zhu, Yun; Jang, Carey; Wang, Shuxiao; Gao, Jian; Lin, Che-Jen; Li, Minhui; Zhu, Zhenghua; Wei, Hao; Yang, Wenwei

    2017-01-01

    To develop a sound ozone (O 3 ) pollution control strategy, it is important to well understand and characterize the source contribution due to the complex chemical and physical formation processes of O 3 . Using the "Shunde" city as a pilot summer case study, we apply an innovative response surface modeling (RSM) methodology based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling simulations to identify the O 3 regime and provide dynamic analysis of the precursor contributions to effectively assess the O 3 impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) control strategy. Our results show that Shunde is a typical VOC-limited urban O 3 polluted city. The "Jiangmen" city, as the main upper wind area during July 2014, its VOCs and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions make up the largest contribution (9.06%). On the contrary, the contribution from local (Shunde) emission is lowest (6.35%) among the seven neighbor regions. The local VOCs industrial source emission has the largest contribution comparing to other precursor emission sectors in Shunde. The results of dynamic source contribution analysis further show that the local NO x control could slightly increase the ground O 3 under low (10.00%) and medium (40.00%) reduction ratios, while it could start to turn positive to decrease ground O 3 under the high NO x abatement ratio (75.00%). The real-time assessment of O 3 impacts from VOCs control strategies in Pearl River Delta (PRD) shows that the joint regional VOCs emission control policy will effectively reduce the ground O 3 concentration in Shunde. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. The Isinglass Auroral Sounding Rocket Campaign: data synthesis incorporating remote sensing, in situ observations, and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, K. A.; Clayton, R.; Roberts, T. M.; Hampton, D. L.; Conde, M.; Zettergren, M. D.; Burleigh, M.; Samara, M.; Michell, R.; Grubbs, G. A., II; Lessard, M.; Hysell, D. L.; Varney, R. H.; Reimer, A.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA auroral sounding rocket mission Isinglass was launched from Poker Flat Alaska in winter 2017. This mission consists of two separate multi-payload sounding rockets, over an array of groundbased observations, including radars and filtered cameras. The science goal is to collect two case studies, in two different auroral events, of the gradient scale sizes of auroral disturbances in the ionosphere. Data from the in situ payloads and the groundbased observations will be synthesized and fed into an ionospheric model, and the results will be studied to learn about which scale sizes of ionospheric structuring have significance for magnetosphere-ionosphere auroral coupling. The in situ instrumentation includes thermal ion sensors (at 5 points on the second flight), thermal electron sensors (at 2 points), DC magnetic fields (2 point), DC electric fields (one point, plus the 4 low-resource thermal ion RPA observations of drift on the second flight), and an auroral precipitation sensor (one point). The groundbased array includes filtered auroral imagers, the PFISR and SuperDarn radars, a coherent scatter radar, and a Fabry-Perot interferometer array. The ionospheric model to be used is a 3d electrostatic model including the effects of ionospheric chemistry. One observational and modelling goal for the mission is to move both observations and models of auroral arc systems into the third (along-arc) dimension. Modern assimilative tools combined with multipoint but low-resource observations allow a new view of the auroral ionosphere, that should allow us to learn more about the auroral zone as a coupled system. Conjugate case studies such as the Isinglass rocket flights allow for a test of the models' intepretation by comparing to in situ data. We aim to develop and improve ionospheric models to the point where they can be used to interpret remote sensing data with confidence without the checkpoint of in situ comparison.

  2. A kinematic wave model in Lagrangian coordinates incorporating capacity drop: Application to homogeneous road stretches and discontinuities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Knoop, Victor L.; Hoogendoorn, Serge P.

    2017-01-01

    On freeways, congestion always leads to capacity drop. This means the queue discharge rate is lower than the pre-queue capacity. Our recent research findings indicate that the queue discharge rate increases with the speed in congestion, that is the capacity drop is strongly correlated with the congestion state. Incorporating this varying capacity drop into a kinematic wave model is essential for assessing consequences of control strategies. However, to the best of authors' knowledge, no such a model exists. This paper fills the research gap by presenting a Lagrangian kinematic wave model. "Lagrangian" denotes that the new model is solved in Lagrangian coordinates. The new model can give capacity drops accompanying both of stop-and-go waves (on homogeneous freeway section) and standing queues (at nodes) in a network. The new model can be applied in a network operation. In this Lagrangian kinematic wave model, the queue discharge rate (or the capacity drop) is a function of vehicular speed in traffic jams. Four case studies on links as well as at lane-drop and on-ramp nodes show that the Lagrangian kinematic wave model can give capacity drops well, consistent with empirical observations.

  3. Modeling Mode Choice Behavior Incorporating Household and Individual Sociodemographics and Travel Attributes Based on Rough Sets Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling.

  4. Radiation induced muscositis as space flight risk. Model studies on X-ray and heavy ion irradiated typical oral mucosa models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tschachojan, Viktoria

    2014-01-01

    Humans in exomagnetospheric space are exposed to highly energetic heavy ion radiation which can be hardly shielded. Since radiation-induced mucositis constitutes a severe complication of heavy ion radiotherapy, it would also implicate a serious medical safety risk for the crew members during prolonged space flights such as missions to Moon or Mars. For assessment of risk developing radiation-induced mucositis, three-dimensional organotypic cultures of immortalized human keratinocytes and fibroblasts were irradiated with a 12 C particle beam at high energies or X-Rays. Immunofluorescence stainings were done from cryosections and radiation induced release of cytokines and chemokines was quantified by ELISA from culture supernatants. The major focuses of this study were on 4, 8, 24 and 48 hours after irradiation. The conducted analyses of our mucosa model showed many structural similarities with the native oral mucosa and authentic immunological responses to radiation exposure. Quantification of the DNA damage in irradiated mucosa models revealed about twice as many DSB after heavy-ion irradiation compared to X-rays at definite doses and time points, suggesting a higher gene toxicity of heavy ions. Nuclear factor κB activation was observed after treatment with X-rays or 12 C particles. An activation of NF κB p65 in irradiated samples could not be detected. ELISA analyses showed significantly higher interleukin 6 and interleukin 8 levels after irradiation with X-rays and 12 C particles compared to non-irradiated controls. However, only X-rays induced significantly higher levels of interleukin 1β. Analyses of TNF-α and IFN-γ showed no radiation-induced effects. Further analyses revealed a radiation-induced reduction in proliferation and loss of compactness in irradiated oral mucosa model, which would lead to local lesions in vivo. In this study we revealed that several pro-inflammatory markers and structural changes are induced by X-rays and heavy-ion irradiation

  5. Incorporation of lysosomal sequestration in the mechanistic model for prediction of tissue distribution of basic drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assmus, Frauke; Houston, J Brian; Galetin, Aleksandra

    2017-11-15

    The prediction of tissue-to-plasma water partition coefficients (Kpu) from in vitro and in silico data using the tissue-composition based model (Rodgers & Rowland, J Pharm Sci. 2005, 94(6):1237-48.) is well established. However, distribution of basic drugs, in particular into lysosome-rich lung tissue, tends to be under-predicted by this approach. The aim of this study was to develop an extended mechanistic model for the prediction of Kpu which accounts for lysosomal sequestration and the contribution of different cell types in the tissue of interest. The extended model is based on compound-specific physicochemical properties and tissue composition data to describe drug ionization, distribution into tissue water and drug binding to neutral lipids, neutral phospholipids and acidic phospholipids in tissues, including lysosomes. Physiological data on the types of cells contributing to lung, kidney and liver, their lysosomal content and lysosomal pH were collated from the literature. The predictive power of the extended mechanistic model was evaluated using a dataset of 28 basic drugs (pK a ≥7.8, 17 β-blockers, 11 structurally diverse drugs) for which experimentally determined Kpu data in rat tissue have been reported. Accounting for the lysosomal sequestration in the extended mechanistic model improved the accuracy of Kpu predictions in lung compared to the original Rodgers model (56% drugs within 2-fold or 88% within 3-fold of observed values). Reduction in the extent of Kpu under-prediction was also evident in liver and kidney. However, consideration of lysosomal sequestration increased the occurrence of over-predictions, yielding overall comparable model performances for kidney and liver, with 68% and 54% of Kpu values within 2-fold error, respectively. High lysosomal concentration ratios relative to cytosol (>1000-fold) were predicted for the drugs investigated; the extent differed depending on the lysosomal pH and concentration of acidic phospholipids among

  6. Incorporating microbial dormancy dynamics into soil decomposition models to improve quantification of soil carbon dynamics of northern temperate forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Yujie [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Yang, Jinyan [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States). Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources; Northeast Forestry Univ., Harbin (China). Center for Ecological Research; Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Agronomy; Harden, Jennifer W. [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); McGuire, Anthony D. [Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, U.S. Geological Survey, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Liu, Yaling [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Wang, Gangsheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Inst. and Environmental Sciences Division; Gu, Lianhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division

    2015-11-20

    Soil carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. Microbial-based decomposition models have seen much growth recently for quantifying this role, yet dormancy as a common strategy used by microorganisms has not usually been represented and tested in these models against field observations. Here in this study we developed an explicit microbial-enzyme decomposition model and examined model performance with and without representation of microbial dormancy at six temperate forest sites of different forest types. We then extrapolated the model to global temperate forest ecosystems to investigate biogeochemical controls on soil heterotrophic respiration and microbial dormancy dynamics at different temporal-spatial scales. The dormancy model consistently produced better match with field-observed heterotrophic soil CO2 efflux (RH) than the no dormancy model. Our regional modeling results further indicated that models with dormancy were able to produce more realistic magnitude of microbial biomass (<2% of soil organic carbon) and soil RH (7.5 ± 2.4 PgCyr-1). Spatial correlation analysis showed that soil organic carbon content was the dominating factor (correlation coefficient = 0.4-0.6) in the simulated spatial pattern of soil RH with both models. In contrast to strong temporal and local controls of soil temperature and moisture on microbial dormancy, our modeling results showed that soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (C:N) was a major regulating factor at regional scales (correlation coefficient = -0.43 to -0.58), indicating scale-dependent biogeochemical controls on microbial dynamics. Our findings suggest that incorporating microbial dormancy could improve the realism of microbial-based decomposition models and enhance the integration of soil experiments and mechanistically based modeling.

  7. Dominant Height Model for Site Classification of Eucalyptus grandis Incorporating Climatic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Roberto Soares Scolforo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study tested the effects of inserting climatic variables in Eucalyptus grandis as covariables of a dominant height model, which for site index classification is usually related to age alone. Dominant height values ranging from 1 to 12 years of age located in the Southeast region of Brazil were used, as well as data from 19 automatic meteorological stations from the area. The Chapman-Richards model was chosen to represent dominant height as a function of age. To include the environmental variables a modifier was included in the asymptote of the model. The asymptote was chosen since this parameter is responsible for the maximum value which the dominant height can reach. Of the four environmental variables most responsible for database variation, the two with the highest correlation to the mean annual increment in dominant height (mean monthly precipitation and temperature were selected to compose the asymptote modifier. Model validation showed a gain in precision of 33% (reduction of the standard error of estimate when climatic variables were inserted in the model. Possible applications of the method include the estimation of site capacity in regions lacking any planting history, as well as updating forest inventory data based on past climate regimes.

  8. Ultrasonically assisted drilling: A finite-element model incorporating acoustic softening effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phadnis, V. A.; Roy, A.; Silberschmidt, V. V.

    2013-07-01

    Ultrasonically assisted drilling (UAD) is a novel machining technique suitable for drilling in hard-to-machine quasi-brittle materials such as carbon fibre reinforced polymer composites (CFRP). UAD has been shown to possess several advantages compared to conventional drilling (CD), including reduced thrust forces, diminished burr formation at drill exit and an overall improvement in roundness and surface finish of the drilled hole. Recently, our in-house experiments of UAD in CFRP composites demonstrated remarkable reductions in thrust-force and torque measurements (average force reductions in excess of 80%) when compared to CD with the same machining parameters. In this study, a 3D finite-element model of drilling in CFRP is developed. In order to model acoustic (ultrasonic) softening effects, a phenomenological model, which accounts for ultrasonically induced plastic strain, was implemented in ABAQUS/Explicit. The model also accounts for dynamic frictional effects, which also contribute to the overall improved machining characteristics in UAD. The model is validated with experimental findings, where an excellent correlation between the reduced thrust force and torque magnitude was achieved.

  9. Modeling & Informatics at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated: our philosophy for sustained impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGaughey, Georgia; Patrick Walters, W

    2017-03-01

    Molecular modelers and informaticians have the unique opportunity to integrate cross-functional data using a myriad of tools, methods and visuals to generate information. Using their drug discovery expertise, information is transformed to knowledge that impacts drug discovery. These insights are often times formulated locally and then applied more broadly, which influence the discovery of new medicines. This is particularly true in an organization where the members are exposed to projects throughout an organization, such as in the case of the global Modeling & Informatics group at Vertex Pharmaceuticals. From its inception, Vertex has been a leader in the development and use of computational methods for drug discovery. In this paper, we describe the Modeling & Informatics group at Vertex and the underlying philosophy, which has driven this team to sustain impact on the discovery of first-in-class transformative medicines.

  10. Incorporation of leaf nitrogen observations for biochemical and environmental modeling of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, E; Gjetterman, B; Abrahamsen, P

    2007-01-01

    impact on CO2 sequestration processes complicates the modeling of carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. The use of remote sensing constitutes a valuable data source to quantify and investigate impacts of bulk leaf N contents, however information on the vertical leaf N distribution and its...... relation to photosynthetic (Rubisco) capacity should also be known to quantify leaf N impacts on canopy photosynthesis. In this study, impacts of the amount and vertical distribution of leaf N contents on canopy photosynthesis were investigated by combining field measurements and photosynthesis modelling....... While most canopy photosynthesis models assume an exponential vertical profile of leaf N contents in the canopy, the field measurements showed that well-fertilized fields may have a uniform or exponential profile, and senescent canopies have reduced levels of N contents in upper leaves. The sensitivity...

  11. Incorporation of leaf nitrogen observations for biochemical and environmental modeling of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøgh, E.; Gjettermann, Birgitte; Abrahamsen, Per

    2007-01-01

    relation to photosynthetic (Rubisco) capacity should also be known to quantify leaf N impacts on canopy photosynthesis. In this study, impacts of the amount and vertical distribution of leaf N contents on canopy photosynthesis were investigated by combining field measurements and photosynthesis modelling....... While most canopy photosynthesis models assume an exponential vertical profile of leaf N contents in the canopy, the field measurements showed that well-fertilized fields may have a uniform or exponential profile, and senescent canopies have reduced levels of N contents in upper leaves. The sensitivity...... of simulated canopy photosynthesis to the different (observed) N profiles was examined using a multi-layer sun/shade biochemically based photosynthesis model and found to be important; ie. for a well-fertilized barley field, the use of exponential instead of uniform vertical N profiles increased the annual...

  12. Modified Johnson-Cook model incorporated with electroplasticity for uniaxial tension under a pulsed electric current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Moon-Jo; Jeong, Hye-Jin; Park, Ju-Won; Hong, Sung-Tae; Han, Heung Nam

    2018-01-01

    An empirical expression describing the electroplastic deformation behavior is suggested based on the Johnson-Cook (JC) model by adding several functions to consider both thermal and athermal electric current effects. Tensile deformation behaviors are carried out for an AZ31 magnesium alloy and an Al-Mg-Si alloy under pulsed electric current at various current densities with a fixed duration of electric current. To describe the flow curves under electric current, a modified JC model is proposed to take the electric current effect into account. Phenomenological descriptions of the adopted parameters in the equation are made. The modified JC model suggested in the present study is capable of describing the tensile deformation behaviors under pulsed electric current reasonably well.

  13. A Transient 3D-CFD Model Incorporating Biological Processes for Use in Tissue Engineering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krühne, Ulrich; Wendt, D.; Martin, I.

    2010-01-01

    are considered in the model. In a variation of the model the growth of the biomass is influenced by the fluid dynamic induced shear stress level, which the cells are exposed to. In parallel an experimental growth of stem cells has been performed in a 3D perfusion reactor system and the culturing has been stopped...... after 2, 8 and 13 days. The development of the cells is compared to the simulated growth of cells and it is attempted to draw a conclusion about the impact of the shear stress on the cell growth. Keyword: Computational fluid dynamics (CFD),Micro pores,Scaffold,Bioreactor,Fluid structure interaction...

  14. Mechanistic description of population dynamics using dynamic energy budget theory incorporated into integral projection models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; Caswell, H.; Toorians, M.E.M.; de Roos, A.M.

    1. Integral projection models (IPMs) provide a powerful approach to investigate ecological and rapid evolutionary change in quantitative life-history characteristics and population dynamics. IPMs are constructed from functions that describe the demographic rates – survival, growth and reproduction –

  15. Process model for ammonia volatilization from anaerobic swine lagoons incorporating varying wind speeds and biogas bubbling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ammonia volatilization from treatment lagoons varies widely with the total ammonia concentration, pH, temperature, suspended solids, atmospheric ammonia concentration above the water surface, and wind speed. Ammonia emissions were estimated with a process-based mechanistic model integrating ammonia ...

  16. Numerical Computation of a Continuous-thrust State Transition Matrix Incorporating Accurate Hardware and Ephemeris Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellison, Donald; Conway, Bruce; Englander, Jacob

    2015-01-01

    A significant body of work exists showing that providing a nonlinear programming (NLP) solver with expressions for the problem constraint gradient substantially increases the speed of program execution and can also improve the robustness of convergence, especially for local optimizers. Calculation of these derivatives is often accomplished through the computation of spacecraft's state transition matrix (STM). If the two-body gravitational model is employed as is often done in the context of preliminary design, closed form expressions for these derivatives may be provided. If a high fidelity dynamics model, that might include perturbing forces such as the gravitational effect from multiple third bodies and solar radiation pressure is used then these STM's must be computed numerically. We present a method for the power hardward model and a full ephemeris model. An adaptive-step embedded eight order Dormand-Prince numerical integrator is discussed and a method for the computation of the time of flight derivatives in this framework is presented. The use of these numerically calculated derivatieves offer a substantial improvement over finite differencing in the context of a global optimizer. Specifically the inclusion of these STM's into the low thrust missiondesign tool chain in use at NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center allows for an increased preliminary mission design cadence.

  17. Incorporating unreliability of transit in transport demand models: theoretical and practical approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Oort, N.; Brands, Ties; de Romph, E.; Aceves Flores, J.

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, transport demand models do not explicitly evaluate the impacts of service reliability of transit. Service reliability of transit systems is adversely experienced by users, as it causes additional travel time and unsecure arrival times. Because of this, travelers are likely to perceive a

  18. A model of driver steering control incorporating the driver's sensing of steering torque

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Namho; Cole, David J.

    2011-10-01

    Steering feel, or steering torque feedback, is widely regarded as an important aspect of the handling quality of a vehicle. Despite this, there is little theoretical understanding of its role. This paper describes an initial attempt to model the role of steering torque feedback arising from lateral tyre forces. The path-following control of a nonlinear vehicle model is implemented using a time-varying model predictive controller. A series of Kalman filters are used to represent the driver's ability to generate estimates of the system states from noisy sensory measurements, including the steering torque. It is found that under constant road friction conditions, the steering torque feedback reduces path-following errors provided the friction is sufficiently high to prevent frequent saturation of the tyres. When the driver model is extended to allow identification of, and adaptation to, a varying friction condition, it is found that the steering torque assists in the accurate identification of the friction condition. The simulation results give insight into the role of steering torque feedback arising from lateral tyre forces. The paper concludes with recommendations for further work.

  19. A microstructurally based continuum model of cartilage viscoelasticity and permeability incorporating measured statistical fiber orientations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David M; Unterberger, Michael J; Trobin, Werner; Ricken, Tim; Holzapfel, Gerhard A

    2016-02-01

    The remarkable mechanical properties of cartilage derive from an interplay of isotropically distributed, densely packed and negatively charged proteoglycans; a highly anisotropic and inhomogeneously oriented fiber network of collagens; and an interstitial electrolytic fluid. We propose a new 3D finite strain constitutive model capable of simultaneously addressing both solid (reinforcement) and fluid (permeability) dependence of the tissue's mechanical response on the patient-specific collagen fiber network. To represent fiber reinforcement, we integrate the strain energies of single collagen fibers-weighted by an orientation distribution function (ODF) defined over a unit sphere-over the distributed fiber orientations in 3D. We define the anisotropic intrinsic permeability of the tissue with a structure tensor based again on the integration of the local ODF over all spatial fiber orientations. By design, our modeling formulation accepts structural data on patient-specific collagen fiber networks as determined via diffusion tensor MRI. We implement our new model in 3D large strain finite elements and study the distributions of interstitial fluid pressure, fluid pressure load support and shear stress within a cartilage sample under indentation. Results show that the fiber network dramatically increases interstitial fluid pressure and focuses it near the surface. Inhomogeneity in the tissue's composition also increases fluid pressure and reduces shear stress in the solid. Finally, a biphasic neo-Hookean material model, as is available in commercial finite element codes, does not capture important features of the intra-tissue response, e.g., distributions of interstitial fluid pressure and principal shear stress.

  20. Incorporating Retention Time to Refine Models Predicting Thermal Regimes of Stream Networks Across New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thermal regimes are a critical factor in models predicting effects of watershed management activities on fish habitat suitability. We have assembled a database of lotic temperature time series across New England (> 7000 station-year combinations) from state and Federal data s...

  1. Teaching Note--Incorporating Journal Clubs into Social Work Education: An Exploratory Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Megan; Fawley-King, Kya; Stone, Susan I.; Accomazzo, Sarah M.

    2013-01-01

    This article outlines the implementation of a journal club for master's and doctoral social work students interested in mental health practice. It defines educational journal clubs and discusses the history of journal clubs in medical education and the applicability of the model to social work education. The feasibility of implementing…

  2. Teaching for Art Criticism: Incorporating Feldman's Critical Analysis Learning Model in Students' Studio Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramaniam, Maithreyi; Hanafi, Jaffri; Putih, Abu Talib

    2016-01-01

    This study adopted 30 first year graphic design students' artwork, with critical analysis using Feldman's model of art criticism. Data were analyzed quantitatively; descriptive statistical techniques were employed. The scores were viewed in the form of mean score and frequencies to determine students' performances in their critical ability.…

  3. Improved Path Loss Simulation Incorporating Three-Dimensional Terrain Model Using Parallel Coprocessors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Bin Loo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Current network simulators abstract out wireless propagation models due to the high computation requirements for realistic modeling. As such, there is still a large gap between the results obtained from simulators and real world scenario. In this paper, we present a framework for improved path loss simulation built on top of an existing network simulation software, NS-3. Different from the conventional disk model, the proposed simulation also considers the diffraction loss computed using Epstein and Peterson’s model through the use of actual terrain elevation data to give an accurate estimate of path loss between a transmitter and a receiver. The drawback of high computation requirements is relaxed by offloading the computationally intensive components onto an inexpensive off-the-shelf parallel coprocessor, which is a NVIDIA GPU. Experiments are performed using actual terrain elevation data provided from United States Geological Survey. As compared to the conventional CPU architecture, the experimental result shows that a speedup of 20x to 42x is achieved by exploiting the parallel processing of GPU to compute the path loss between two nodes using terrain elevation data. The result shows that the path losses between two nodes are greatly affected by the terrain profile between these two nodes. Besides this, the result also suggests that the common strategy to place the transmitter in the highest position may not always work.

  4. A Probabilistic Model of Visual Working Memory: Incorporating Higher Order Regularities into Working Memory Capacity Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Timothy F.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2013-01-01

    When remembering a real-world scene, people encode both detailed information about specific objects and higher order information like the overall gist of the scene. However, formal models of change detection, like those used to estimate visual working memory capacity, assume observers encode only a simple memory representation that includes no…

  5. Incorporating Lightning Flash Data into the WRF-CMAQ Modeling System: Algorithms and Evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    We describe the use of lightning flash data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to constrain and improve the performance of coupled meteorology-chemistry models. We recently implemented a scheme in which lightning data is used to control the triggering of conve...

  6. A quantitative model of the cardiac ventricular cell incorporating the transverse-axial tubular system

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pásek, Michal; Christé, G.; Šimurda, J.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 3 (2003), s. 355-368 ISSN 0231-5882 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP204/02/D129 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z2076919 Keywords : cardiac cell * tubular system * quantitative modelling Subject RIV: BO - Biophysics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2003

  7. A Model for the Incorporation of the Traditional Healers into the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In South Africa the patient uses both the traditional healers and biomedical personnel's services out of need for the best healing therapy to fulfil his/ her health needs. Failure of ... Data was analysed and the results of phase one as well as initial literature review were used to construct a conceptual framework for the model.

  8. Decision model incorporating utility theory and measurement of social values applied to nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Litchfield, J.W.; Hansen, J.V.; Beck, L.C.

    1975-07-01

    A generalized computer-based decision analysis model was developed and tested. Several alternative concepts for ultimate disposal have already been developed; however, significant research is still required before any of these can be implemented. To make a choice based on technical estimates of the costs, short-term safety, long-term safety, and accident detection and recovery requires estimating the relative importance of each of these factors or attributes. These relative importance estimates primarily involve social values and therefore vary from one individual to the next. The approach used was to sample various public groups to determine the relative importance of each of the factors to the public. These estimates of importance weights were combined in a decision analysis model with estimates, furnished by technical experts, of the degree to which each alternative concept achieves each of the criteria. This model then integrates the two separate and unique sources of information and provides the decision maker with information as to the preferences and concerns of the public as well as the technical areas within each concept which need further research. The model can rank the alternatives using sampled public opinion and techno-economic data. This model provides a decision maker with a structured approach to subdividing complex alternatives into a set of more easily considered attributes, measuring the technical performance of each alternative relative to each attribute, estimating relevant social values, and assimilating quantitative information in a rational manner to estimate total value for each alternative. Because of the explicit nature of this decision analysis, the decision maker can select a specific alternative supported by clear documentation and justification for his assumptions and estimates. (U.S.)

  9. A multi-component model of the developing retinocollicular pathway incorporating axonal and synaptic growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith B Godfrey

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available During development, neurons extend axons to different brain areas and produce stereotypical patterns of connections. The mechanisms underlying this process have been intensively studied in the visual system, where retinal neurons form retinotopic maps in the thalamus and superior colliculus. The mechanisms active in map formation include molecular guidance cues, trophic factor release, spontaneous neural activity, spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP, synapse creation and retraction, and axon growth, branching and retraction. To investigate how these mechanisms interact, a multi-component model of the developing retinocollicular pathway was produced based on phenomenological approximations of each of these mechanisms. Core assumptions of the model were that the probabilities of axonal branching and synaptic growth are highest where the combined influences of chemoaffinity and trophic factor cues are highest, and that activity-dependent release of trophic factors acts to stabilize synapses. Based on these behaviors, model axons produced morphologically realistic growth patterns and projected to retinotopically correct locations in the colliculus. Findings of the model include that STDP, gradient detection by axonal growth cones and lateral connectivity among collicular neurons were not necessary for refinement, and that the instructive cues for axonal growth appear to be mediated first by molecular guidance and then by neural activity. Although complex, the model appears to be insensitive to variations in how the component developmental mechanisms are implemented. Activity, molecular guidance and the growth and retraction of axons and synapses are common features of neural development, and the findings of this study may have relevance beyond organization in the retinocollicular pathway.

  10. DEM Investigation of Particle-Scale Mechanical Properties of Frozen Soil Based on the Nonlinear Microcontact Model Incorporating Rolling Resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingshi An

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Although frozen soil is in nature the discrete material, it is generally treated as the continuum material. The mechanical properties of frozen soil are so complex to describe adequately by conventional continuum mechanics method. In this study, the nonlinear microcontact model incorporating rolling resistance is proposed to investigate the particle-scale mechanical properties of frozen soil. The failure mechanism of frozen soil is explicated based on the evolution of contact force chains and propagation of microcracks. In addition, the effects of contact stiffness ratio and friction coefficient on stress-strain curve and energy evolution are evaluated. The results show that the nonlinear microcontact model incorporating rolling resistance can better describe the experimental data. At a higher axial strain, the contact force chains near shear band which can give rise to the soil arch effect rotate away from the shear band inclination but not so much as to become perpendicular to it. The propagation of microcracks can be divided into two phases. The stress-strain curve is strongly influenced by contact stiffness ratio. In addition, friction coefficient does not significantly affect the initial tangential modulus. Compared with frictional coefficient, the effect of contact stiffness ratio on stress-strain curve and energy evolution is greater.

  11. A density dependent delayed predator-prey model with Beddington-DeAngelis type function response incorporating a prey refuge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Jai Prakash; Abbas, Syed; Thakur, Manoj

    2015-05-01

    This paper describes a predator-prey model incorporating a prey refuge. The feeding rate of consumers (predators) per consumer (i.e. functional response) is considered to be of Beddington-DeAngelis type. The Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is similar to the Holling-type II functional response but contains an extra term describing mutual interference by predators. We investigate the role of prey refuge and degree of mutual interference among predators in the dynamics of system. The dynamics of the system is discussed mainly from the point of view of permanence and stability. We obtain conditions that affect the persistence of the system. Local and global asymptotic stability of various equilibrium solutions is explored to understand the dynamics of the model system. The global asymptotic stability of positive interior equilibrium solution is established using suitable Lyapunov functional. The dynamical behaviour of the delayed system is further analyzed through incorporating discrete type gestation delay of predator. It is found that Hopf bifurcation occurs when the delay parameter τ crosses some critical value. The analytical results found in the paper are illustrated with the help of numerical examples.

  12. Finite-volume model for chemical vapor infiltration incorporating radiant heat transfer. Interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, A.W.; Starr, T.L. [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States). School of Materials Science and Engineering

    1995-05-01

    Most finite-volume thermal models account for the diffusion and convection of heat and may include volume heating. However, for certain simulation geometries, a large percentage of heat flux is due to thermal radiation. In this paper a finite-volume computational procedure for the simulation of heat transfer by conduction, convection and radiation in three dimensional complex enclosures is developed. The radiant heat transfer is included as a source term in each volume element which is derived by Monte Carlo ray tracing from all possible radiating and absorbing faces. The importance of radiative heat transfer is illustrated in the modeling of chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) of tubes. The temperature profile through the tube preform matches experimental measurements only when radiation is included. An alternative, empirical approach using an {open_quotes}effective{close_quotes} thermal conductivity for the gas space can match the initial temperature profile but does not match temperature changes that occur during preform densification.

  13. Incorporating imperfect detection into joint models of communites: A response to Warton et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beissinger, Steven R.; Iknayan, Kelly J.; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Zipkin, Elise; Dorazio, Robert; Royle, Andy; Kery, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Warton et al. [1] advance community ecology by describing a statistical framework that can jointly model abundances (or distributions) across many taxa to quantify how community properties respond to environmental variables. This framework specifies the effects of both measured and unmeasured (latent) variables on the abundance (or occurrence) of each species. Latent variables are random effects that capture the effects of both missing environmental predictors and correlations in parameter values among different species. As presented in Warton et al., however, the joint modeling framework fails to account for the common problem of detection or measurement errors that always accompany field sampling of abundance or occupancy, and are well known to obscure species- and community-level inferences.

  14. Incorporating single-side sparing in models for predicting parotid dose sparing in head and neck IMRT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Lulin, E-mail: lulin.yuan@duke.edu; Wu, Q. Jackie; Yin, Fang-Fang; Yoo, David [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Jiang, Yuliang [Department of Radiation Oncology, Peking University Third Hospital, Beijing, China, 100191 (China); Ge, Yaorong [Department of Software and Information Systems, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina 28223 (United States)

    2014-02-15

    Purpose: Sparing of single-side parotid gland is a common practice in head-and-neck (HN) intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) planning. It is a special case of dose sparing tradeoff between different organs-at-risk. The authors describe an improved mathematical model for predicting achievable dose sparing in parotid glands in HN IMRT planning that incorporates single-side sparing considerations based on patient anatomy and learning from prior plan data. Methods: Among 68 HN cases analyzed retrospectively, 35 cases had physician prescribed single-side parotid sparing preferences. The single-side sparing model was trained with cases which had single-side sparing preferences, while the standard model was trained with the remainder of cases. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was performed to determine the best criterion that separates the two case groups using the physician's single-side sparing prescription as ground truth. The final predictive model (combined model) takes into account the single-side sparing by switching between the standard and single-side sparing models according to the single-side sparing criterion. The models were tested with 20 additional cases. The significance of the improvement of prediction accuracy by the combined model over the standard model was evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Results: Using the ROC analysis, the best single-side sparing criterion is (1) the predicted median dose of one parotid is higher than 24 Gy; and (2) that of the other is higher than 7 Gy. This criterion gives a true positive rate of 0.82 and a false positive rate of 0.19, respectively. For the bilateral sparing cases, the combined and the standard models performed equally well, with the median of the prediction errors for parotid median dose being 0.34 Gy by both models (p = 0.81). For the single-side sparing cases, the standard model overestimates the median dose by 7.8 Gy on average, while the predictions by the combined

  15. Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodegom, P. V.

    2015-12-01

    Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change.

  16. Reliability constrained decision model for energy service provider incorporating demand response programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahboubi-Moghaddam, Esmaeil; Nayeripour, Majid; Aghaei, Jamshid

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The operation of Energy Service Providers (ESPs) in electricity markets is modeled. • Demand response as the cost-effective solution is used for energy service provider. • The market price uncertainty is modeled using the robust optimization technique. • The reliability of the distribution network is embedded into the framework. • The simulation results demonstrate the benefits of robust framework for ESPs. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) programs are becoming a critical concept for the efficiency of current electric power industries. Therefore, its various capabilities and barriers have to be investigated. In this paper, an effective decision model is presented for the strategic behavior of energy service providers (ESPs) to demonstrate how to participate in the day-ahead electricity market and how to allocate demand in the smart distribution network. Since market price affects DR and vice versa, a new two-step sequential framework is proposed, in which unit commitment problem (UC) is solved to forecast the expected locational marginal prices (LMPs), and successively DR program is applied to optimize the total cost of providing energy for the distribution network customers. This total cost includes the cost of purchased power from the market and distributed generation (DG) units, incentive cost paid to the customers, and compensation cost of power interruptions. To obtain compensation cost, the reliability evaluation of the distribution network is embedded into the framework using some innovative constraints. Furthermore, to consider the unexpected behaviors of the other market participants, the LMP prices are modeled as the uncertainty parameters using the robust optimization technique, which is more practical compared to the conventional stochastic approach. The simulation results demonstrate the significant benefits of the presented framework for the strategic performance of ESPs.

  17. Teaching For Art Criticism: Incorporating Feldman’s Critical Analysis Learning Model In Students’ Studio Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Maithreyi Subramaniam; Jaffri Hanafi; Abu Talib Putih

    2016-01-01

    This study adopted 30 first year graphic design students’ artwork, with critical analysis using Feldman’s model of art criticism. Data were analyzed quantitatively; descriptive statistical techniques were employed. The scores were viewed in the form of mean score and frequencies to determine students’ performances in their critical ability. Pearson Correlation Coefficient was used to find out the correlation between students’ studio practice and art critical ability scores. The...

  18. Incorporating Labour Market Frictions into an Optimising-Based Monetary Policy Model

    OpenAIRE

    Moyen, S.; Sahuc, J-G.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the effects of introducing a non Walrasian labour market into the "New Neoclassical Synthesis'' framework. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is formulated, solved, and calibrated in order to evaluate its ability to replicate the main features of the Euro area economy. This framework allows us to study the effects of labour market rigidities, nominal rigidities, and other frictions to give account of the impact of monetary policy, technology, public spending, a...

  19. Extrapolation of extreme sea levels: incorporation of Over-Threshold-Modeling to the Joint Probability Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazas, Franck; Hamm, Luc; Kergadallan, Xavier

    2013-04-01

    In France, the storm Xynthia of February 27-28th, 2010 reminded engineers and stakeholders of the necessity for an accurate estimation of extreme sea levels for the risk assessment in coastal areas. Traditionally, two main approaches exist for the statistical extrapolation of extreme sea levels: the direct approach performs a direct extrapolation on the sea level data, while the indirect approach carries out a separate analysis of the deterministic component (astronomical tide) and stochastic component (meteorological residual, or surge). When the tidal component is large compared with the surge one, the latter approach is known to perform better. In this approach, the statistical extrapolation is performed on the surge component then the distribution of extreme seal levels is obtained by convolution of the tide and surge distributions. This model is often referred to as the Joint Probability Method. Different models from the univariate extreme theory have been applied in the past for extrapolating extreme surges, in particular the Annual Maxima Method (AMM) and the r-largest method. In this presentation, we apply the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) approach for declustering extreme surge events, coupled with the Poisson-GPD model for fitting extreme surge peaks. This methodology allows a sound estimation of both lower and upper tails of the stochastic distribution, including the estimation of the uncertainties associated to the fit by computing the confidence intervals. After convolution with the tide signal, the model yields the distribution for the whole range of possible sea level values. Particular attention is paid to the necessary distinction between sea level values observed at a regular time step, such as hourly, and sea level events, such as those occurring during a storm. Extremal indexes for both surges and levels are thus introduced. This methodology will be illustrated with a case study at Brest, France.

  20. Absorbed dose evaluation based on a computational voxel model incorporating distinct cerebral structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandao, Samia de Freitas; Trindade, Bruno; Campos, Tarcisio P.R. [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)]. E-mail: samiabrandao@gmail.com; bmtrindade@yahoo.com; campos@nuclear.ufmg.br

    2007-07-01

    Brain tumors are quite difficult to treat due to the collateral radiation damages produced on the patients. Despite of the improvements in the therapeutics protocols for this kind of tumor, involving surgery and radiotherapy, the failure rate is still extremely high. This fact occurs because tumors can not often be totally removed by surgery since it may produce some type of deficit in the cerebral functions. Radiotherapy is applied after the surgery, and both are palliative treatments. During radiotherapy the brain does not absorb the radiation dose in homogeneous way, because the various density and chemical composition of tissues involved. With the intention of evaluating better the harmful effects caused by radiotherapy it was developed an elaborated cerebral voxel model to be used in computational simulation of the irradiation protocols of brain tumors. This paper presents some structures function of the central nervous system and a detailed cerebral voxel model, created in the SISCODES program, considering meninges, cortex, gray matter, white matter, corpus callosum, limbic system, ventricles, hypophysis, cerebellum, brain stem and spinal cord. The irradiation protocol simulation was running in the MCNP5 code. The model was irradiated with photons beam whose spectrum simulates a linear accelerator of 6 MV. The dosimetric results were exported to SISCODES, which generated the isodose curves for the protocol. The percentage isodose curves in the brain are present in this paper. (author)

  1. Incorporating institutions and collective action into a sociohydrological model of flood resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, David J.; Sangwan, Nikhil; Sung, Kyungmin; Chen, Xi; Merwade, Venkatesh

    2017-02-01

    Stylized sociohydrological models have mainly used social memory aspects such as community awareness or sensitivity to connect hydrologic change and social response. However, social memory alone does not satisfactorily capture the details of how human behavior is translated into collective action for water resources governance. Nor is it the only social mechanism by which the two-way feedbacks of sociohydrology can be operationalized. This study contributes toward bridging of this gap by developing a sociohydrological model of a flood resilience that includes two additional components: (1) institutions for collective action, and (2) connections to an external economic system. Motivated by the case of community-managed flood protection systems (polders) in coastal Bangladesh, we use the model to understand critical general features that affect long-term resilience of human-flood systems. Our findings suggest that occasional adversity can enhance long-term resilience. Allowing some hydrological variability to enter into the polder can increase its adaptive capacity for resilience through the preservation of social norm for collective action. Further, there are potential trade-offs associated with optimization of flood resistance through structural measures. By reducing sensitivity to floods, the system may become more fragile under the double impact of floods and economic change.

  2. Biotransformation model of neutral and weakly polar organic compounds in fish incorporating internal partitioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Dave T F; Di Toro, Dominic M

    2013-08-01

    A model for whole-body in vivo biotransformation of neutral and weakly polar organic chemicals in fish is presented. It considers internal chemical partitioning and uses Abraham solvation parameters as reactivity descriptors. It assumes that only chemicals freely dissolved in the body fluid may bind with enzymes and subsequently undergo biotransformation reactions. Consequently, the whole-body biotransformation rate of a chemical is retarded by the extent of its distribution in different biological compartments. Using a randomly generated training set (n = 64), the biotransformation model is found to be: log (HLφfish ) = 2.2 (±0.3)B - 2.1 (±0.2)V - 0.6 (±0.3) (root mean square error of prediction [RMSE] = 0.71), where HL is the whole-body biotransformation half-life in days, φfish is the freely dissolved fraction in body fluid, and B and V are the chemical's H-bond acceptance capacity and molecular volume. Abraham-type linear free energy equations were also developed for lipid-water (Klipidw ) and protein-water (Kprotw ) partition coefficients needed for the computation of φfish from independent determinations. These were found to be 1) log Klipidw  = 0.77E - 1.10S - 0.47A - 3.52B + 3.37V + 0.84 (in Lwat /kglipid ; n = 248, RMSE = 0.57) and 2) log Kprotw  = 0.74E - 0.37S - 0.13A - 1.37B + 1.06V - 0.88 (in Lwat /kgprot ; n = 69, RMSE = 0.38), where E, S, and A quantify dispersive/polarization, dipolar, and H-bond-donating interactions, respectively. The biotransformation model performs well in the validation of HL (n = 424, RMSE = 0.71). The predicted rate constants do not exceed the transport limit due to circulatory flow. Furthermore, the model adequately captures variation in biotransformation rate between chemicals with varying log octanol-water partitioning coefficient, B, and V and exhibits high degree of independence from the choice of training chemicals. The

  3. Incorporation of lipophilic pathways into the porous pathway model for describing skin permeabilization during low-frequency sonophoresis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tezel, Ahmet; Sens, Ashley; Mitragotri, Samir

    2002-09-18

    Application of low-frequency sonophoresis (LFS) has been shown to increase skin permeability, thereby facilitating delivery of hydrophilic solutes. We have previously shown that the modified porous pathway model provides an adequate theoretical description of transdermal delivery of hydrophilic solutes through pores in the presence and absence of ultrasound. However, small hydrophilic solutes (M(w)<400 Da) that exhibit a moderate partition coefficient, K(o/w) (0.1incorporate the lipophilic pathway into the porous pathway model to describe transdermal drug transport in the absence and presence of ultrasound. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

  4. Incorporation of SemiSpan SuperSonic Transport (S4T) Aeroservoelastic Models into SAREC-ASV Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christhilf, David M.; Pototzky, Anthony S.; Stevens, William L.

    2010-01-01

    The Simulink-based Simulation Architecture for Evaluating Controls for Aerospace Vehicles (SAREC-ASV) was modified to incorporate linear models representing aeroservoelastic characteristics of the SemiSpan SuperSonic Transport (S4T) wind-tunnel model. The S4T planform is for a Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) design from the 1990s. The model has three control surfaces and is instrumented with accelerometers and strain gauges. Control laws developed for wind-tunnel testing for Ride Quality Enhancement, Gust Load Alleviation, and Flutter Suppression System functions were implemented in the simulation. The simulation models open- and closed-loop response to turbulence and to control excitation. It provides time histories for closed-loop stable conditions above the open-loop flutter boundary. The simulation is useful for assessing the potential impact of closed-loop control rate and position saturation. It also provides a means to assess fidelity of system identification procedures by providing time histories for a known plant model, with and without unmeasured turbulence as a disturbance. Sets of linear models representing different Mach number and dynamic pressure conditions were implemented as MATLAB Linear Time Invariant (LTI) objects. Configuration changes were implemented by selecting which LTI object to use in a Simulink template block. A limited comparison of simulation versus wind-tunnel results is shown.

  5. Mathematical modeling of manganese adsorption onto bone char in a continuous fixed bed column incorporating backmixing and shriking core approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Maria

    Full Text Available Abstract The present study investigated the dynamics of manganese adsorption onto bone char in a continuous fixed bed column using a mathematical model that incorporates: (i the backmixing model to describe the fluid flow through the bed and (ii the shrinking core model to describe the kinetic and mass transfer phenomena within spherical adsorbent particles. The proposed model consists of an ordinary differential equation system. Hydrodynamic, kinetic and diffusive parameters were determined by fitting the mathematical model to the experimental data obtained by Sicupira et al. (2015. For the operating conditions evaluated in this study, the intraparticle diffusion represented the controlling step of the adsorption process (Bim> 3.8. The increase in the feed rate of the column (3.0-7.5 mL min-1 and the decrease in the height of the bed (8-16 cm resulted in a decrease in the time required for the saturation of the column bed. The model is flexible for a variety of flow conditions and adequately reproduced the behavior of the manganese adsorption process in the fixed bed column operation (R²> 0.99 with an average percentage error less than15%.

  6. The Eatwell Guide: Modelling the Health Implications of Incorporating New Sugar and Fibre Guidelines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda J Cobiac

    Full Text Available To model population health impacts of dietary changes associated with the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (the 'Eatwell Guide'.Using multi-state lifetable methods, we modelled the impact of dietary changes on cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers over the lifetime of the current UK population. From this model, we determined change in life expectancy and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs that could be averted.Changing the average diet to that recommended in the new Eatwell Guide, without increasing total energy intake, could increase average life expectancy by 5.4 months (95% uncertainty interval: 4.7 to 6.2 for men and 4.0 months (3.4 to 4.6 for women; and avert 17.9 million (17.6 to 18.2 DALYs over the lifetime of the current population. A large proportion of the health benefits are from prevention of type 2 diabetes, with 440,000 (400,000 to 480,000 new cases prevented in men and 340,000 (310,000 to 370,000 new cases prevented in women, over the next ten years. Prevention of cardiovascular diseases and colorectal cancer is also large. However, if the diet recommended in the new Eatwell Guide is achieved with an accompanying increase in energy intake (and thus an increase in body mass index, around half the potential improvements in population health will not be realised.The dietary changes required to meet recommendations in the Eatwell Guide, which include eating more fruits and vegetables and less red and processed meats and dairy products, are large. However, the potential population health benefits are substantial.

  7. Dipole estimation errors due to not incorporating anisotropic conductivities in realistic head models for EEG source analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallez, Hans; Staelens, Steven; Lemahieu, Ignace

    2009-01-01

    EEG source analysis is a valuable tool for brain functionality research and for diagnosing neurological disorders, such as epilepsy. It requires a geometrical representation of the human head or a head model, which is often modeled as an isotropic conductor. However, it is known that some brain tissues, such as the skull or white matter, have an anisotropic conductivity. Many studies reported that the anisotropic conductivities have an influence on the calculated electrode potentials. However, few studies have assessed the influence of anisotropic conductivities on the dipole estimations. In this study, we want to determine the dipole estimation errors due to not taking into account the anisotropic conductivities of the skull and/or brain tissues. Therefore, head models are constructed with the same geometry, but with an anisotropically conducting skull and/or brain tissue compartment. These head models are used in simulation studies where the dipole location and orientation error is calculated due to neglecting anisotropic conductivities of the skull and brain tissue. Results show that not taking into account the anisotropic conductivities of the skull yields a dipole location error between 2 and 25 mm, with an average of 10 mm. When the anisotropic conductivities of the brain tissues are neglected, the dipole location error ranges between 0 and 5 mm. In this case, the average dipole location error was 2.3 mm. In all simulations, the dipole orientation error was smaller than 10 deg. We can conclude that the anisotropic conductivities of the skull have to be incorporated to improve the accuracy of EEG source analysis. The results of the simulation, as presented here, also suggest that incorporation of the anisotropic conductivities of brain tissues is not necessary. However, more studies are needed to confirm these suggestions.

  8. Procurement-distribution model for perishable items with quantity discounts incorporating freight policies under fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Makkar Sandhya

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A significant issue of the supply chain problem is how to integrate different entities. Managing supply chain is a difficult task because of complex integrations, especially when the products are perishable in nature. Little attention has been paid on ordering specific perishable products jointly in uncertain environment with multiple sources and multiple destinations. In this article, we propose a supply chain coordination model through quantity and freight discount policy for perishable products under uncertain cost and demand information. A case is provided to validate the procedure.

  9. A Compliant Bistable Mechanism Design Incorporating Elastica Buckling Beam Theory and Pseudo-Rigid-Body Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sönmez, Ümit; Tutum, Cem Celal

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new compliant bistable mechanism design is introduced. The combined use of pseudo-rigid-body model (PRBM) and the Elastica buckling theory is presented for the first time to analyze the new design. This mechanism consists of the large deflecting straight beams, buckling beams......, and a slider. The kinematic analysis of this new mechanism is studied, using nonlinear Elastica buckling beam theory, the PRBM of a large deflecting cantilever beam, the vector loop closure equations, and numerically solving nonlinear algebraic equations. A design method of the bistable mechanism...

  10. Cargill Incorporated

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cargill, Incorporated, 518 East Fourth Street, Watkins Glen, New York 14891 has applied to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the provisions of the Safe Drinking Water Act, 42 U.S.C. 300f et. seq (the Act), for a new Underground Injection

  11. The New Zealand gravimetric quasigeoid model 2017 that incorporates nationwide airborne gravimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCubbine, J. C.; Amos, M. J.; Tontini, F. C.; Smith, E.; Winefied, R.; Stagpoole, V.; Featherstone, W. E.

    2017-12-01

    A one arc-minute resolution gravimetric quasigeoid model has been computed for New Zealand, covering the region 25°S -60°S and 160°E -170°W . It was calculated by Wong and Gore modified Stokes integration using the remove-compute-restore technique with the EIGEN-6C4 global gravity model as the reference field. The gridded gravity data used for the computation consisted of 40,677 land gravity observations, satellite altimetry-derived marine gravity anomalies, historical shipborne marine gravity observations and, importantly, approximately one million new airborne gravity observations. The airborne data were collected with the specific intention of reinforcing the shortcomings of the existing data in areas of rough topography inaccessible to land gravimetry and in coastal areas where shipborne gravimetry cannot be collected and altimeter-derived gravity anomalies are generally poor. The new quasigeoid has a nominal precision of ± 48 mm on comparison with GPS-levelling data, which is approximately 14 mm less than its predecessor NZGeoid09.

  12. An arbitrary boundary with ghost particles incorporated in coupled FEM-SPH model for FSI problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Ting; Hu, Dean; Wan, Detao; Zhuang, Chen; Yang, Gang

    2017-12-01

    It is important to treat the arbitrary boundary of Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) problems in computational mechanics. In order to ensure complete support condition and restore the first-order consistency near the boundary of Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method for coupling Finite Element Method (FEM) with SPH model, a new ghost particle method is proposed by dividing the interceptive area of kernel support domain into subareas corresponding to boundary segments of structure. The ghost particles are produced automatically for every fluid particle at each time step, and the properties of ghost particles, such as density, mass and velocity, are defined by using the subareas to satisfy the boundary condition. In the coupled FEM-SPH model, the normal and shear forces from a boundary segment of structure to a fluid particle are calculated through the corresponding ghost particles, and its opposite forces are exerted on the corresponding boundary segment, then the momentum of the present method is conservation and there is no matching requirements between the size of elements and the size of particles. The performance of the present method is discussed and validated by several FSI problems with complex geometry boundary and moving boundary.

  13. A hierarchical Bayesian model to incorporate uncertainty into methods for diversity partitioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marion, Zachary H; Fordyce, James A; Fitzpatrick, Benjamin M

    2018-04-01

    Recently there have been major theoretical advances in the quantification and partitioning of diversity within and among communities, regions, and ecosystems. However, applying those advances to real data remains a challenge. Ecologists often end up describing their samples rather than estimating the diversity components of an underlying study system, and existing approaches do not easily provide statistical frameworks for testing ecological questions. Here we offer one avenue to do all of the above using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We estimate posterior distributions of the underlying "true" relative abundances of each species within each unit sampled. These posterior estimates of relative abundance can then be used with existing formulae to estimate and partition diversity. The result is a posterior distribution of diversity metrics describing our knowledge (or beliefs) about the study system. This approach intuitively leads to statistical inferences addressing biologically motivated hypotheses via Bayesian model comparison. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our approach does as well or better at approximating the "true" diversity of a community relative to naïve or ad-hoc bias-corrected estimates. Moreover, model comparison correctly distinguishes between alternative hypotheses about the distribution of diversity within and among samples. Finally, we use an empirical ecological dataset to illustrate how the approach can be used to address questions about the makeup and diversities of assemblages at local and regional scales. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  14. The effect of intra-abdominal hypertension incorporating severe acute pancreatitis in a porcine model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Ke

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS and intra abdominal hypertension(IAH are common clinical findings in patients with severe acute pancreatitis(SAP. It is thought that an increased intra abdominal pressure(IAP is associated with poor prognosis in SAP patients. But the detailed effect of IAH/ACS on different organ system is not clear. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of SAP combined with IAH on hemodynamics, systemic oxygenation, and organ damage in a 12 h lasting porcine model. MEASUREMENTS AND METHODS: Following baseline registrations, a total of 30 animals were divided into 5 groups (6 animals in each group: SAP+IAP30 group, SAP+IAP20 group, SAP group, IAP30 group(sham-operated but without SAP and sham-operated group. We used a N(2 pneumoperitoneum to induce different levels of IAH and retrograde intra-ductal infusion of sodium taurocholate to induce SAP. The investigation period was 12 h. Hemodynamic parameters (CO, HR, MAP, CVP, urine output, oxygenation parameters(e.g., S(vO(2, PO(2, PaCO(2, peak inspiratory pressure, as well as serum parameters (e.g., ALT, amylase, lactate, creatinine were recorded. Histological examination of liver, intestine, pancreas, and lung was performed. MAIN RESULTS: Cardiac output significantly decreased in the SAP+IAH animals compared with other groups. Furthermore, AST, creatinine, SUN and lactate showed similar increasing tendency paralleled with profoundly decrease in S(vO(2. The histopathological analyses also revealed higher grade injury of liver, intestine, pancreas and lung in the SAP+IAH groups. However, few differences were found between the two SAP+IAH groups with different levels of IAP. CONCLUSIONS: Our newly developed porcine SAP+IAH model demonstrated that there were remarkable effects on global hemodynamics, oxygenation and organ function in response to sustained IAH of 12 h combined with SAP. Moreover, our model should be helpful to study the mechanisms of IAH

  15. Etoposide incorporated into camel milk phospholipids liposomes shows increased activity against fibrosarcoma in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maswadeh, Hamzah M; Aljarbou, Ahmad N; Alorainy, Mohammed S; Alsharidah, Mansour S; Khan, Masood A

    2015-01-01

    Phospholipids were isolated from camel milk and identified by using high performance liquid chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Anticancer drug etoposide (ETP) was entrapped in liposomes, prepared from camel milk phospholipids, to determine its activity against fibrosarcoma in a murine model. Fibrosarcoma was induced in mice by injecting benzopyrene (BAP) and tumor-bearing mice were treated with various formulations of etoposide, including etoposide entrapped camel milk phospholipids liposomes (ETP-Cam-liposomes) and etoposide-loaded DPPC-liposomes (ETP-DPPC-liposomes). The tumor-bearing mice treated with ETP-Cam-liposomes showed slow progression of tumors and increased survival compared to free ETP or ETP-DPPC-liposomes. These results suggest that ETP-Cam-liposomes may prove to be a better drug delivery system for anticancer drugs.

  16. Etoposide Incorporated into Camel Milk Phospholipids Liposomes Shows Increased Activity against Fibrosarcoma in a Mouse Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamzah M. Maswadeh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Phospholipids were isolated from camel milk and identified by using high performance liquid chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS. Anticancer drug etoposide (ETP was entrapped in liposomes, prepared from camel milk phospholipids, to determine its activity against fibrosarcoma in a murine model. Fibrosarcoma was induced in mice by injecting benzopyrene (BAP and tumor-bearing mice were treated with various formulations of etoposide, including etoposide entrapped camel milk phospholipids liposomes (ETP-Cam-liposomes and etoposide-loaded DPPC-liposomes (ETP-DPPC-liposomes. The tumor-bearing mice treated with ETP-Cam-liposomes showed slow progression of tumors and increased survival compared to free ETP or ETP-DPPC-liposomes. These results suggest that ETP-Cam-liposomes may prove to be a better drug delivery system for anticancer drugs.

  17. Teaching For Art Criticism: Incorporating Feldman’s Critical Analysis Learning Model In Students’ Studio Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maithreyi Subramaniam

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study adopted 30 first year graphic design students’ artwork, with critical analysis using Feldman’s model of art criticism. Data were analyzed quantitatively; descriptive statistical techniques were employed. The scores were viewed in the form of mean score and frequencies to determine students’ performances in their critical ability. Pearson Correlation Coefficient was used to find out the correlation between students’ studio practice and art critical ability scores. The findings showed most students performed slightly better than average in the critical analyses and performed best in selecting analysis among the four dimensions assessed. In the context of the students’ studio practice and critical ability, findings showed there are some connections between the students’ art critical ability and studio practice.

  18. Growth kinetics and morphology of a ballistic deposition model that incorporates surface diffusion for two species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Nashar, H.F.; Cerdeira, H.A.

    1998-08-01

    We introduce a ballistic deposition model for two kinds of particles (active and inactive) in (2+1) dimensions upon introducing the surface diffusion for the inactive particles. A morphological structural transition is found as the probability of being the inactive particle increases. This transition is well defined by the change in the behavior of the surface width when it is plotted versus time and probability. The exponents α and β calculated for different values of probability show the same behavior. The presence of both types of particles issues three different processes that control the growing surface: overhanging, nonlocal growth and diffusion. It finally leads to a morphological structural transition where the universality changes away from that of Kardar-Parisi-Zhang, in (2+1) dimensions, but not into Edwards-Wilkinson's. (author)

  19. Incorporating numerical modeling into estimates of the detection capability of the IMS infrasound network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Pichon, A.; Ceranna, L.; Vergoz, J.

    2012-03-01

    To monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test ban Treaty (CTBT), a dedicated International Monitoring System (IMS) is being deployed. Recent global scale observations recorded by this network confirm that its detection capability is highly variable in space and time. Previous studies estimated the radiated source energy from remote observations using empirical yield-scaling relations which account for the along-path stratospheric winds. Although the empirical wind correction reduces the variance in the explosive energy versus pressure relationship, strong variability remains in the yield estimate. Today, numerical modeling techniques provide a basis to better understand the role of different factors describing the source and the atmosphere that influence propagation predictions. In this study, the effects of the source frequency and the stratospheric wind speed are simulated. In order to characterize fine-scale atmospheric structures which are excluded from the current atmospheric specifications, model predictions are further enhanced by the addition of perturbation terms. A theoretical attenuation relation is thus developed from massive numerical simulations using the Parabolic Equation method. Compared with previous studies, our approach provides a more realistic physical description of long-range infrasound propagation. We obtain a new relation combining a near-field and a far-field term, which account for the effects of both geometrical spreading and absorption. In the context of the future verification of the CTBT, the derived attenuation relation quantifies the spatial and temporal variability of the IMS infrasound network performance in higher resolution, and will be helpful for the design and prioritizing maintenance of any arbitrary infrasound monitoring network.

  20. An evaluation of a paediatric radiation oncology teaching programme incorporating a SCORPIO teaching model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahern, Verity

    2011-01-01

    Full text: Many radiation oncology registrars have no exposure to paedi atrics during their training, To address this, the Paediatric Special Interest Group of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists has convened a biennial teaching course since 1997. The 2009 course incorpo rated the use of a Structured, Clinical, Objective-Referenced, Problem orientated, Integrated and Organized (SCORPIO) teaching model for small group tutorials. This study evaluates whether the paediatric radiation oncol ogy curriculum can be adapted to the SCORPIO teaching model and to evaluate the revised course from the registrars' perspective. Methods: Teaching and learning resources included a pre-course reading list, a lecture series programme and a SCORPIO workshop. Three evaluation instruments were developed: an overall Course Evaluation Survey for all participants, a SCORPIO Workshop Survey for registrars and a Teacher's SCORPIO Workshop Survey. Results: Forty-five radiation oncology registrars, 14 radiation therapists and five paediatric oncology registrars attended. Seventy-three per cent (47/64) of all participants completed the Course Evaluation Survey and 95% (38/40) of registrars completed the SCORPIO Workshop Survey. All teachers com pleted the Teacher's SCORPIO Survey (10/10). The overall educational expe rience was rated as good or excellent by 93% (43/47) of respondents. Ratings of satisfaction with lecture sessions were predominantly good or excellent. Registrars gave the SCORPIO workshop high ratings on each of 10 aspects of quality, with 82% allocating an excellent rating overall for the SCORPIO activity. Both registrars and teachers recommended more time for the SCORPIO stations. Conclusions: The 2009 course met the educational needs of the radiation oncology registrars and the SCORPIO workshop was a highly valued educa tional component.

  1. Global processing speed in children with low reading ability and in children and adults with typical reading ability: exploratory factor analytic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Beate; Matsushita, Mark; Raskind, Wendy H

    2011-06-01

    To investigate processing speed as a latent dimension in children with dyslexia and children and adults with typical reading skills. Exploratory factor analysis (FA) was based on a sample of multigenerational families, each ascertained through a child with dyslexia. Eleven measures--6 of them timed--represented verbal and nonverbal processes, alphabet writing, and motor sequencing in the hand and oral motor system. FA was conducted in 4 cohorts (all children, a subset of children with low reading scores, a subset of children with typical reading scores, and adults with typical reading scores; total N = 829). Processing speed formed the first factor in all cohorts. Both measures of motor sequencing speed loaded on the speed factor with the other timed variables. Children with poor reading scores showed lower speed factor scores than did typical peers. The speed factor was negatively correlated with age in the adults. The speed dimension was observed independently of participant cohort, gender, and reading ability. Results are consistent with a unified theory of processing speed as a quadratic function of age in typical development and with slowed processing in poor readers.

  2. Modeling of Compressive Strength for Self-Consolidating High-Strength Concrete Incorporating Palm Oil Fuel Ash

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safiuddin, Md.; Raman, Sudharshan N.; Abdus Salam, Md.; Jumaat, Mohd. Zamin

    2016-01-01

    Modeling is a very useful method for the performance prediction of concrete. Most of the models available in literature are related to the compressive strength because it is a major mechanical property used in concrete design. Many attempts were taken to develop suitable mathematical models for the prediction of compressive strength of different concretes, but not for self-consolidating high-strength concrete (SCHSC) containing palm oil fuel ash (POFA). The present study has used artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the compressive strength of SCHSC incorporating POFA. The ANN model has been developed and validated in this research using the mix proportioning and experimental strength data of 20 different SCHSC mixes. Seventy percent (70%) of the data were used to carry out the training of the ANN model. The remaining 30% of the data were used for testing the model. The training of the ANN model was stopped when the root mean square error (RMSE) and the percentage of good patterns was 0.001 and ≈100%, respectively. The predicted compressive strength values obtained from the trained ANN model were much closer to the experimental values of compressive strength. The coefficient of determination (R2) for the relationship between the predicted and experimental compressive strengths was 0.9486, which shows the higher degree of accuracy of the network pattern. Furthermore, the predicted compressive strength was found very close to the experimental compressive strength during the testing process of the ANN model. The absolute and percentage relative errors in the testing process were significantly low with a mean value of 1.74 MPa and 3.13%, respectively, which indicated that the compressive strength of SCHSC including POFA can be efficiently predicted by the ANN. PMID:28773520

  3. Incorporating the CALPHAD sublattice approach of ordering into the phase-field model with finite interface dissipation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Lijun; Stratmann, Matthias; Du, Yong; Sundman, Bo; Steinbach, Ingo

    2015-01-01

    A new approach to incorporate the sublattice models in the CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagram) formalism directly into the phase-field formalism is developed. In binary alloys, the sublattice models can be classified into two types (i.e., “Type I” and “Type II”), depending on whether a direct one-to-one relation between the element site fraction in the CALPHAD database and the phase concentration in the phase-field model exists (Type I), or not (Type II). For “Type II” sublattice models, the specific site fractions, corresponding to a given mole fraction, have to be established via internal relaxation between different sublattices. Internal minimization of sublattice occupancy and solute evolution during microstructure transformation leads, in general, to a solution superior to the separate solution of the individual problems. The present coupling technique is validated for Fe–C and Ni–Al alloys. Finally, the model is extended into multicomponent alloys and applied to simulate the nucleation process of VC monocarbide from austenite matrix in a steel containing vanadium

  4. A battery model that fully couples mechanics and electrochemistry at both particle and electrode levels by incorporation of particle interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bin; Lu, Wei

    2017-08-01

    This paper develops a multi-scale mechanical-electrochemical model which enables fully coupled mechanics and electrochemistry at both particle and electrode levels. At the particle level, solid diffusion is modeled using a generalized chemical potential to capture the effects of mechanical stress and phase transformation. At the electrode level, the stress arising from particle interaction is incorporated in a continuum model. This particle interaction stress is in addition to the traditional concept of intercalation stress inside isolated particles. The particle and continuum electrode levels are linked by the particle interaction stress as loads on the particle surface, and by consideration of stress on the electrochemical reaction rate on the particle surface. The effect of mechanical stress on electrochemical reaction results in a stress-dependent over-potential between particle and electrolyte. Stress gradient in an electrode leads to inhomogeneous intercalation/deintercalation currents for particles depending on their interaction stress with neighbors, resulting in stress gradient induced inhomogeneous state of charge. Conversely, non-uniform intercalation/deintercalation currents in an electrode lead to stress between particles. With this model we have an important finding: an electrochemically inactive region in an electrode causes stress built-up. This model provides a powerful tool to address various problems such as fracture in-between particles.

  5. Development of a model of a multi-lymphangion lymphatic vessel incorporating realistic and measured parameter values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, C D; Macaskill, C; Davis, M J; Moore, J E

    2014-04-01

    Our published model of a lymphatic vessel consisting of multiple actively contracting segments between non-return valves has been further developed by the incorporation of properties derived from observations and measurements of rat mesenteric vessels. These included (1) a refractory period between contractions, (2) a highly nonlinear form for the passive part of the pressure-diameter relationship, (3) hysteretic and transmural-pressure-dependent valve opening and closing pressure thresholds and (4) dependence of active tension on muscle length as reflected in local diameter. Experimentally, lymphatic valves are known to be biased to stay open. In consequence, in the improved model, vessel pumping of fluid suffers losses by regurgitation, and valve closure is dependent on backflow first causing an adverse valve pressure drop sufficient to reach the closure threshold. The assumed resistance of an open valve therefore becomes a critical parameter, and experiments to measure this quantity are reported here. However, incorporating this parameter value, along with other parameter values based on existing measurements, led to ineffective pumping. It is argued that the published measurements of valve-closing pressure threshold overestimate this quantity owing to neglect of micro-pipette resistance. An estimate is made of the extent of the possible resulting error. Correcting by this amount, the pumping performance is improved, but still very inefficient unless the open-valve resistance is also increased beyond the measured level. Arguments are given as to why this is justified, and other areas where experimental data are lacking are identified. The model is capable of future adaptation as new experimental data appear.

  6. Modelling how incorporation of divalent cations affects calcite wettability-implications for biomineralisation and oil recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, M. P.; Dideriksen, K.; Sakuma, H.; Stipp, S. L. S.

    2016-06-01

    Using density functional theory and geochemical speciation modelling, we predicted how solid-fluid interfacial energy is changed, when divalent cations substitute into a calcite surface. The effect on wettability can be dramatic. Trace metal uptake can impact organic compound adsorption, with effects for example, on the ability of organisms to control crystal growth and our ability to predict the wettability of pore surfaces. Wettability influences how easily an organic phase can be removed from a surface, either organic compounds from contaminated soil or crude oil from a reservoir. In our simulations, transition metals substituted exothermically into calcite and more favourably into sites at the surface than in the bulk, meaning that surface properties are more strongly affected than results from bulk experiments imply. As a result of divalent cation substitution, calcite-fluid interfacial energy is significantly altered, enough to change macroscopic contact angle by tens of degrees. Substitution of Sr, Ba and Pb makes surfaces more hydrophobic. With substitution of Mg and the transition metals, calcite becomes more hydrophilic, weakening organic compound adsorption. For biomineralisation, this provides a switch for turning on and off the activity of organic crystal growth inhibitors, thereby controlling the shape of the associated mineral phase.

  7. Incorporating the gut microbiota into models of human and non-human primate ecology and evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Katherine R

    2016-01-01

    The mammalian gut is home to a diverse community of microbes. Advances in technology over the past two decades have allowed us to examine this community, the gut microbiota, in more detail, revealing a wide range of influences on host nutrition, health, and behavior. These host-gut microbe interactions appear to shape host plasticity and fitness in a variety of contexts, and therefore represent a key factor missing from existing models of human and non-human primate ecology and evolution. However, current studies of the gut microbiota tend to include limited contextual data or are clinical, making it difficult to directly test broad anthropological hypotheses. Here, I review what is known about the animal gut microbiota and provide examples of how gut microbiota research can be integrated into the study of human and non-human primate ecology and evolution with targeted data collection. Specifically, I examine how the gut microbiota may impact primate diet, energetics, disease resistance, and cognition. While gut microbiota research is proliferating rapidly, especially in the context of humans, there remain important gaps in our understanding of host-gut microbe interactions that will require an anthropological perspective to fill. Likewise, gut microbiota research will be an important tool for filling remaining gaps in anthropological research. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Incorporating Vibration Test Results for the Advanced Stirling Convertor into the System Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meer, David W.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LM), and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. As part of the extended operation testing of this power system, the Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC) at NASA GRC undergo a vibration test sequence intended to simulate the vibration history that an ASC would experience when used in an ASRG for a space mission. During these tests, a data system collects several performance-related parameters from the convertor under test for health monitoring and analysis. Recently, an additional sensor recorded the slip table position during vibration testing to qualification level. The System Dynamic Model (SDM) integrates Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, mechanical mass, spring, damper systems, and electrical characteristics of the linear alternator and controller. This Paper presents a comparison of the performance of the ASC when exposed to vibration to that predicted by the SDM when exposed to the same vibration.

  9. Computational cardiology: the bidomain based modified Hill model incorporating viscous effects for cardiac defibrillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cansız, Barış; Dal, Hüsnü; Kaliske, Michael

    2017-10-01

    Working mechanisms of the cardiac defibrillation are still in debate due to the limited experimental facilities and one-third of patients even do not respond to cardiac resynchronization therapy. With an aim to develop a milestone towards reaching the unrevealed mechanisms of the defibrillation phenomenon, we propose a bidomain based finite element formulation of cardiac electromechanics by taking into account the viscous effects that are disregarded by many researchers. To do so, the material is deemed as an electro-visco-active material and described by the modified Hill model (Cansız et al. in Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng 315:434-466, 2017). On the numerical side, we utilize a staggered solution method, where the elliptic and parabolic part of the bidomain equations and the mechanical field are solved sequentially. The comparative simulations designate that the viscoelastic and elastic formulations lead to remarkably different outcomes upon an externally applied electric field to the myocardial tissue. Besides, the achieved framework requires significantly less computational time and memory compared to monolithic schemes without loss of stability for the presented examples.

  10. Searching for the true diet of marine predators: incorporating Bayesian priors into stable isotope mixing models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Chiaradia

    Full Text Available Reconstructing the diet of top marine predators is of great significance in several key areas of applied ecology, requiring accurate estimation of their true diet. However, from conventional stomach content analysis to recent stable isotope and DNA analyses, no one method is bias or error free. Here, we evaluated the accuracy of recent methods to estimate the actual proportion of a controlled diet fed to a top-predator seabird, the Little penguin (Eudyptula minor. We combined published DNA data of penguins scats with blood plasma δ(15N and δ(13C values to reconstruct the diet of individual penguins fed experimentally. Mismatch between controlled (true ingested diet and dietary estimates obtained through the separately use of stable isotope and DNA data suggested some degree of differences in prey assimilation (stable isotope and digestion rates (DNA analysis. In contrast, combined posterior isotope mixing model with DNA Bayesian priors provided the closest match to the true diet. We provided the first evidence suggesting that the combined use of these complementary techniques may provide better estimates of the actual diet of top marine predators- a powerful tool in applied ecology in the search for the true consumed diet.

  11. Development of Advanced Continuum Models that Incorporate Nanomechanical Deformation into Engineering Analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zimmerman, Jonathan A.; Jones, Reese E.; Templeton, Jeremy Alan; McDowell, David L.; Mayeur, Jason R.; Tucker, Garritt J.; Bammann, Douglas J.; Gao, Huajian

    2008-09-01

    Materials with characteristic structures at nanoscale sizes exhibit significantly different mechani-cal responses from those predicted by conventional, macroscopic continuum theory. For example,nanocrystalline metals display an inverse Hall-Petch effect whereby the strength of the materialdecreases with decreasing grain size. The origin of this effect is believed to be a change in defor-mation mechanisms from dislocation motion across grains and pileup at grain boundaries at mi-croscopic grain sizes to rotation of grains and deformation within grain boundary interface regionsfor nanostructured materials. These rotational defects are represented by the mathematical conceptof disclinations. The ability to capture these effects within continuum theory, thereby connectingnanoscale materials phenomena and macroscale behavior, has eluded the research community.The goal of our project was to develop a consistent theory to model both the evolution ofdisclinations and their kinetics. Additionally, we sought to develop approaches to extract contin-uum mechanical information from nanoscale structure to verify any developed continuum theorythat includes dislocation and disclination behavior. These approaches yield engineering-scale ex-pressions to quantify elastic and inelastic deformation in all varieties of materials, even those thatpossess highly directional bonding within their molecular structures such as liquid crystals, cova-lent ceramics, polymers and biological materials. This level of accuracy is critical for engineeringdesign and thermo-mechanical analysis is performed in micro- and nanosystems. The researchproposed here innovates on how these nanoscale deformation mechanisms should be incorporatedinto a continuum mechanical formulation, and provides the foundation upon which to develop ameans for predicting the performance of advanced engineering materials.4 AcknowledgmentThe authors acknowledge helpful discussions with Farid F. Abraham, Youping Chen, Terry J

  12. A Markerless 3D Computerized Motion Capture System Incorporating a Skeleton Model for Monkeys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Tomoya; Matsumoto, Jumpei; Nishimaru, Hiroshi; Bretas, Rafael Vieira; Takamura, Yusaku; Hori, Etsuro; Ono, Taketoshi; Nishijo, Hisao

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we propose a novel markerless motion capture system (MCS) for monkeys, in which 3D surface images of monkeys were reconstructed by integrating data from four depth cameras, and a skeleton model of the monkey was fitted onto 3D images of monkeys in each frame of the video. To validate the MCS, first, estimated 3D positions of body parts were compared between the 3D MCS-assisted estimation and manual estimation based on visual inspection when a monkey performed a shuttling behavior in which it had to avoid obstacles in various positions. The mean estimation error of the positions of body parts (3-14 cm) and of head rotation (35-43°) between the 3D MCS-assisted and manual estimation were comparable to the errors between two different experimenters performing manual estimation. Furthermore, the MCS could identify specific monkey actions, and there was no false positive nor false negative detection of actions compared with those in manual estimation. Second, to check the reproducibility of MCS-assisted estimation, the same analyses of the above experiments were repeated by a different user. The estimation errors of positions of most body parts between the two experimenters were significantly smaller in the MCS-assisted estimation than in the manual estimation. Third, effects of methamphetamine (MAP) administration on the spontaneous behaviors of four monkeys were analyzed using the MCS. MAP significantly increased head movements, tended to decrease locomotion speed, and had no significant effect on total path length. The results were comparable to previous human clinical data. Furthermore, estimated data following MAP injection (total path length, walking speed, and speed of head rotation) correlated significantly between the two experimenters in the MCS-assisted estimation (r = 0.863 to 0.999). The results suggest that the presented MCS in monkeys is useful in investigating neural mechanisms underlying various psychiatric disorders and developing

  13. From Field Data to Fracture Network Modeling: An Example Incorporating Spatial Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Jane C. S.; Billaux, Daniel M.

    1987-07-01

    This paper describes a technique for processing field data for a fracture network model which accounts for the observed spatial variability. This has been done by generating a network subregion by subregion where the properties of each subregion are predicted through geostatistics. Once the geometry of a particular realization is specified, flow through the network is studied. We develop the method for a two-dimensional analysis based on data from Fanay-Augeres, a uranium mine in France. We plan to extend the analysis to three dimensions and compare the results with in situ test results. In particular, we have focused on the data collected in a long section of a drift where fractures have been mapped and steady state permeability tests have been performed in 10 boreholes. In order to generate fractures in a statistically heterogeneous region we first divided the region into statistically homogeneous subregions. In each subregion and for each fracture set we must specify the areal fracture density and the orientation, length, and aperture distributions. We divided the fractures into five sets based on tectonic history and observed that for each set, fractures spaced close together tended to have similar orientations. This was built into the simulation. An estimate of the aperture distribution for each set was made by assuming that the hydraulic apertures of the fractures intersecting a well test zone were proportional to the fracture opening observed in the core. Data input to the geostatistical analysis for each set consisted of 16 values of mean length and density of fractures in each 5 m by 2 m section of the drift wall. The results of the simulation are tables of values for mean length and fracture density for each of the five sets. The value of density simulated for each subregion was used directly to determine the number of fractures to be generated of that set in the subregion. The value of mean length was used as the mean of the length distribution in the

  14. Teacher Retirement Systems. A Review of Patterns of Teacher Pension Systems in the Fifty States, with a Model Investment Portfolio for a Typical System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Charles Edward

    This document is a study of teacher retirement systems of the United States. It also deals with the problems of improved management, particularly of how funds might be invested to increase benefits or reduce the required contributions. It sets up a hypothetically ideal pattern for the investment portfolio of typical State pension fund on the basis…

  15. Global Processing Speed in Children with Low Reading Ability and in Children and Adults with Typical Reading Ability: Exploratory Factor Analytic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Beate; Matsushita, Mark; Raskind, Wendy H.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate processing speed as a latent dimension in children with dyslexia and children and adults with typical reading skills. Method: Exploratory factor analysis (FA) was based on a sample of multigenerational families, each ascertained through a child with dyslexia. Eleven measures--6 of them timed--represented verbal and…

  16. A bi-level integrated generation-transmission planning model incorporating the impacts of demand response by operation simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Ning; Hu, Zhaoguang; Springer, Cecilia; Li, Yanning; Shen, Bo

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We put forward a novel bi-level integrated power system planning model. • Generation expansion planning and transmission expansion planning are combined. • The effects of two sorts of demand response in reducing peak load are considered. • Operation simulation is conducted to reflect the actual effects of demand response. • The interactions between the two levels can guarantee a reasonably optimal result. - Abstract: If all the resources in power supply side, transmission part, and power demand side are considered together, the optimal expansion scheme from the perspective of the whole system can be achieved. In this paper, generation expansion planning and transmission expansion planning are combined into one model. Moreover, the effects of demand response in reducing peak load are taken into account in the planning model, which can cut back the generation expansion capacity and transmission expansion capacity. Existing approaches to considering demand response for planning tend to overestimate the impacts of demand response on peak load reduction. These approaches usually focus on power reduction at the moment of peak load without considering the situations in which load demand at another moment may unexpectedly become the new peak load due to demand response. These situations are analyzed in this paper. Accordingly, a novel approach to incorporating demand response in a planning model is proposed. A modified unit commitment model with demand response is utilized. The planning model is thereby a bi-level model with interactions between generation-transmission expansion planning and operation simulation to reflect the actual effects of demand response and find the reasonably optimal planning result.

  17. Towards a Predictive Thermodynamic Model of Oxidation States of Uranium Incorporated in Fe (hydr) oxides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bagus, Paul S. [Univ. of North Texas, Denton, TX (United States)

    2013-01-01

    -Level Excited States: Consequences For X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy”, J. Elec. Spectros. and Related Phenom., 200, 174 (2015) describes our first application of these methods. As well as applications to problems and materials of direct interest for our PNNL colleagues, we have pursued applications of fundamental theoretical significance for the analysis and interpretation of XPS and XAS spectra. These studies are important for the development of the fields of core-level spectroscopies as well as to advance our capabilities for applications of interest to our PNNL colleagues. An excellent example is our study of the surface core-level shifts, SCLS, for the surface and bulk atoms of an oxide that provides a new approach to understanding how the surface electronic of oxides differs from that in the bulk of the material. This work has the potential to lead to a new key to understanding the reactivity of oxide surfaces. Our theoretical studies use cluster models with finite numbers of atoms to describe the properties of condensed phases and crystals. This approach has allowed us to focus on the local atomistic, chemical interactions. For these clusters, we obtain orbitals and spinors through the solution of the Hartree-Fock, HF, and the fully relativistic Dirac HF equations. These orbitals are used to form configuration mixing wavefunctions which treat the many-body effects responsible for the open shell angular momentum coupling and for the satellites of the core-level spectra. Our efforts have been in two complementary directions. As well as the applications described above, we have placed major emphasis on the enhancement and extension of our theoretical and computational capabilities so that we can treat complex systems with a greater range of many-body effects. Noteworthy accomplishments in terms of method development and enhancement have included: (1) An improvement in our treatment of the large matrices that must be handled when many-body effects are treated. (2

  18. An in silico model of the ubiquitin-proteasome system that incorporates normal homeostasis and age-related decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Proctor Carole J

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The ubiquitin-proteasome system is responsible for homeostatic degradation of intact protein substrates as well as the elimination of damaged or misfolded proteins that might otherwise aggregate. During ageing there is a decline in proteasome activity and an increase in aggregated proteins. Many neurodegenerative diseases are characterised by the presence of distinctive ubiquitin-positive inclusion bodies in affected regions of the brain. These inclusions consist of insoluble, unfolded, ubiquitinated polypeptides that fail to be targeted and degraded by the proteasome. We are using a systems biology approach to try and determine the primary event in the decline in proteolytic capacity with age and whether there is in fact a vicious cycle of inhibition, with accumulating aggregates further inhibiting proteolysis, prompting accumulation of aggregates and so on. A stochastic model of the ubiquitin-proteasome system has been developed using the Systems Biology Mark-up Language (SBML. Simulations are carried out on the BASIS (Biology of Ageing e-Science Integration and Simulation system and the model output is compared to experimental data wherein levels of ubiquitin and ubiquitinated substrates are monitored in cultured cells under various conditions. The model can be used to predict the effects of different experimental procedures such as inhibition of the proteasome or shutting down the enzyme cascade responsible for ubiquitin conjugation. Results The model output shows good agreement with experimental data under a number of different conditions. However, our model predicts that monomeric ubiquitin pools are always depleted under conditions of proteasome inhibition, whereas experimental data show that monomeric pools were depleted in IMR-90 cells but not in ts20 cells, suggesting that cell lines vary in their ability to replenish ubiquitin pools and there is the need to incorporate ubiquitin turnover into the model. Sensitivity

  19. Parameterizing Spatial Models of Infectious Disease Transmission that Incorporate Infection Time Uncertainty Using Sampling-Based Likelihood Approximations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajat Malik

    Full Text Available A class of discrete-time models of infectious disease spread, referred to as individual-level models (ILMs, are typically fitted in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC framework. These models quantify probabilistic outcomes regarding the risk of infection of susceptible individuals due to various susceptibility and transmissibility factors, including their spatial distance from infectious individuals. The infectious pressure from infected individuals exerted on susceptible individuals is intrinsic to these ILMs. Unfortunately, quantifying this infectious pressure for data sets containing many individuals can be computationally burdensome, leading to a time-consuming likelihood calculation and, thus, computationally prohibitive MCMC-based analysis. This problem worsens when using data augmentation to allow for uncertainty in infection times. In this paper, we develop sampling methods that can be used to calculate a fast, approximate likelihood when fitting such disease models. A simple random sampling approach is initially considered followed by various spatially-stratified schemes. We test and compare the performance of our methods with both simulated data and data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD epidemic in the U.K. Our results indicate that substantial computation savings can be obtained--albeit, of course, with some information loss--suggesting that such techniques may be of use in the analysis of very large epidemic data sets.

  20. Modelling sediment dynamics due to hillslope-river interactions : incorporating fluvial behaviour in landscape evolution model LAPSUS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baartman, Jantiene E. M.; van Gorp, Wouter; Temme, Arnaud J. A. M.; Schoorl, Jeroen M.

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) simulate the three-dimensional development of landscapes over time. Different LEMs have different foci, e.g. erosional behaviour, river dynamics, the fluvial domain, hillslopes or a combination. LEM LAPSUS is a relatively simple cellular model operating on

  1. An improved analytical model of 4H-SiC MESFET incorporating bulk and interface trapping effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hema Lata Rao, M.; Narasimha Murty, N. V. L.

    2015-01-01

    An improved analytical model for the current—voltage (I-V) characteristics of the 4H-SiC metal semiconductor field effect transistor (MESFET) on a high purity semi-insulating (HPSI) substrate with trapping and thermal effects is presented. The 4H-SiC MESFET structure includes a stack of HPSI substrates and a uniformly doped channel layer. The trapping effects include both the effect of multiple deep-level traps in the substrate and surface traps between the gate to source/drain. The self-heating effects are also incorporated to obtain the accurate and realistic nature of the analytical model. The importance of the proposed model is emphasised through the inclusion of the recent and exact nature of the traps in the 4H-SiC HPSI substrate responsible for substrate compensation. The analytical model is used to exhibit DC I-V characteristics of the device with and without trapping and thermal effects. From the results, the current degradation is observed due to the surface and substrate trapping effects and the negative conductance introduced by the self-heating effect at a high drain voltage. The calculated results are compared with reported experimental and two-dimensional simulations (Silvaco®-TCAD). The proposed model also illustrates the effectiveness of the gate—source distance scaling effect compared to the gate—drain scaling effect in optimizing 4H-SiC MESFET performance. Results demonstrate that the proposed I-V model of 4H-SiC MESFET is suitable for realizing SiC based monolithic circuits (MMICs) on HPSI substrates.

  2. An improved analytical model of 4H-SiC MESFET incorporating bulk and interface trapping effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, M. Hema Lata; Murty, N. V. L. Narasimha

    2015-01-01

    An improved analytical model for the current—voltage (I–V) characteristics of the 4H-SiC metal semiconductor field effect transistor (MESFET) on a high purity semi-insulating (HPSI) substrate with trapping and thermal effects is presented. The 4H-SiC MESFET structure includes a stack of HPSI substrates and a uniformly doped channel layer. The trapping effects include both the effect of multiple deep-level traps in the substrate and surface traps between the gate to source/drain. The self-heating effects are also incorporated to obtain the accurate and realistic nature of the analytical model. The importance of the proposed model is emphasised through the inclusion of the recent and exact nature of the traps in the 4H-SiC HPSI substrate responsible for substrate compensation. The analytical model is used to exhibit DC I–V characteristics of the device with and without trapping and thermal effects. From the results, the current degradation is observed due to the surface and substrate trapping effects and the negative conductance introduced by the self-heating effect at a high drain voltage. The calculated results are compared with reported experimental and two-dimensional simulations (Silvaco®-TCAD). The proposed model also illustrates the effectiveness of the gate—source distance scaling effect compared to the gate—drain scaling effect in optimizing 4H-SiC MESFET performance. Results demonstrate that the proposed I–V model of 4H-SiC MESFET is suitable for realizing SiC based monolithic circuits (MMICs) on HPSI substrates. (semiconductor devices)

  3. Incorporation of expert variability into breast cancer treatment recommendation in designing clinical protocol guided fuzzy rule system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garibaldi, Jonathan M; Zhou, Shang-Ming; Wang, Xiao-Ying; John, Robert I; Ellis, Ian O

    2012-06-01

    It has been often demonstrated that clinicians exhibit both inter-expert and intra-expert variability when making difficult decisions. In contrast, the vast majority of computerized models that aim to provide automated support for such decisions do not explicitly recognize or replicate this variability. Furthermore, the perfect consistency of computerized models is often presented as a de facto benefit. In this paper, we describe a novel approach to incorporate variability within a fuzzy inference system using non-stationary fuzzy sets in order to replicate human variability. We apply our approach to a decision problem concerning the recommendation of post-operative breast cancer treatment; specifically, whether or not to administer chemotherapy based on assessment of five clinical variables: NPI (the Nottingham Prognostic Index), estrogen receptor status, vascular invasion, age and lymph node status. In doing so, we explore whether such explicit modeling of variability provides any performance advantage over a more conventional fuzzy approach, when tested on a set of 1310 unselected cases collected over a fourteen year period at the Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, UK. The experimental results show that the standard fuzzy inference system (that does not model variability) achieves overall agreement to clinical practice around 84.6% (95% CI: 84.1-84.9%), while the non-stationary fuzzy model can significantly increase performance to around 88.1% (95% CI: 88.0-88.2%), pfuzzy models provide a valuable new approach that may be applied to clinical decision support systems in any application domain. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Incorporating the subgrid-scale variability of clouds in the autoconversion parameterization in a large-scale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Torsten; Quaas, Johannes

    2010-05-01

    Precipitation formation in warm clouds is mainly governed by the autoconversion rate being a high nonlinear process. Large scale models commonly calculate the autoconversion rate using the grid-cell mean of liquid cloud water which introduces a strong low-bias because clouds and therefore liquid cloud water are inhomogeneous distributed. The parameterized autoconversion is thus artificially tuned so that accumulated large-scale precipitation matches the observations. Here, we revise the parameterization for the autoconversion rate to incorporate the subgrid-scale variability of clouds using the horizontal subgrid-scale distribution of liquid cloud water mixing ratio derived from the subgrid-scale variability scheme of water vapor and cloud condensate. This scheme is employed in the ECHAM5 climate model in order to calculate the horizontal cloud fraction by means of a probability density function (PDF) of the total water mixing ratio. The revised parameterization now also ensures the consistency between the calculation of horizontal cloud fraction and the precipitation formation. An introduction of the improved parameterization and first results of the evaluation of the precipitation rate on a global scale will be presented. Specifically, precipitation and vertically integrated liquid cloud water estimated by the model are compared with observational data derived from ground based measurements and satellite instruments.

  5. Incorporation of velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and particle surface friction into kinetic theory for modeling granular flow cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Yifei; Feng, Zhi-Gang

    2017-12-01

    Kinetic theory (KT) has been successfully used to model rapid granular flows in which particle interactions are frictionless and near elastic. However, it fails when particle interactions become frictional and inelastic. For example, the KT is not able to accurately predict the free cooling process of a vibrated granular medium that consists of inelastic frictional particles under microgravity. The main reason that the classical KT fails to model these flows is due to its inability to account for the particle surface friction and its inelastic behavior, which are the two most important factors that need be considered in modeling collisional granular flows. In this study, we have modified the KT model that is able to incorporate these two factors. The inelasticity of a particle is considered by establishing a velocity-dependent expression for the restitution coefficient based on many experimental studies found in the literature, and the particle friction effect is included by using a tangential restitution coefficient that is related to the particle friction coefficient. Theoretical predictions of the free cooling process by the classical KT and the improved KT are compared with the experimental results from a study conducted on an airplane undergoing parabolic flights without the influence of gravity [Y. Grasselli, G. Bossis, and G. Goutallier, Europhys. Lett. 86, 60007 (2009)10.1209/0295-5075/86/60007]. Our results show that both the velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and the particle surface friction are important in predicting the free cooling process of granular flows; the modified KT model that integrates these two factors is able to improve the simulation results and leads to better agreement with the experimental results.

  6. Incorporation of velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and particle surface friction into kinetic theory for modeling granular flow cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Yifei; Feng, Zhi-Gang

    2017-12-01

    Kinetic theory (KT) has been successfully used to model rapid granular flows in which particle interactions are frictionless and near elastic. However, it fails when particle interactions become frictional and inelastic. For example, the KT is not able to accurately predict the free cooling process of a vibrated granular medium that consists of inelastic frictional particles under microgravity. The main reason that the classical KT fails to model these flows is due to its inability to account for the particle surface friction and its inelastic behavior, which are the two most important factors that need be considered in modeling collisional granular flows. In this study, we have modified the KT model that is able to incorporate these two factors. The inelasticity of a particle is considered by establishing a velocity-dependent expression for the restitution coefficient based on many experimental studies found in the literature, and the particle friction effect is included by using a tangential restitution coefficient that is related to the particle friction coefficient. Theoretical predictions of the free cooling process by the classical KT and the improved KT are compared with the experimental results from a study conducted on an airplane undergoing parabolic flights without the influence of gravity [Y. Grasselli, G. Bossis, and G. Goutallier, Europhys. Lett. 86, 60007 (2009), 10.1209/0295-5075/86/60007]. Our results show that both the velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and the particle surface friction are important in predicting the free cooling process of granular flows; the modified KT model that integrates these two factors is able to improve the simulation results and leads to better agreement with the experimental results.

  7. Incorporating Field Studies into Species Distribution and Climate Change Modelling: A Case Study of the Koomal Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus (Phalangeridae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun W Molloy

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs are an effective way of predicting the potential distribution of species and their response to environmental change. Most SDMs apply presence data to a relatively generic set of predictive variables such as climate. However, this weakens the modelling process by overlooking the responses to more cryptic predictive variables. In this paper we demonstrate a means by which data gathered from an intensive animal trapping study can be used to enhance SDMs by combining field data with bioclimatic modelling techniques to determine the future potential distribution for the koomal (Trichosurus vulpecula hypoleucus. The koomal is a geographically isolated subspecies of the common brushtail possum, endemic to south-western Australia. Since European settlement this taxon has undergone a significant reduction in distribution due to its vulnerability to habitat fragmentation, introduced predators and tree/shrub dieback caused by a virulent group of plant pathogens of the genus Phytophthora. An intensive field study found: 1 the home range for the koomal rarely exceeded 1 km in in length at its widest point; 2 areas heavily infested with dieback were not occupied; 3 gap crossing between patches (>400 m was common behaviour; 4 koomal presence was linked to the extent of suitable vegetation; and 5 where the needs of koomal were met, populations in fragments were demographically similar to those found in contiguous landscapes. We used this information to resolve a more accurate SDM for the koomal than that created from bioclimatic data alone. Specifically, we refined spatial coverages of remnant vegetation and dieback, to develop a set of variables that we combined with selected bioclimatic variables to construct models. We conclude that the utility value of an SDM can be enhanced and given greater resolution by identifying variables that reflect observed, species-specific responses to landscape parameters and incorporating these

  8. Electrospun nanofiber sheets incorporating methylcobalamin promote nerve regeneration and functional recovery in a rat sciatic nerve crush injury model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Koji; Tanaka, Hiroyuki; Ebara, Mitsuhiro; Uto, Koichiro; Matsuoka, Hozo; Nishimoto, Shunsuke; Okada, Kiyoshi; Murase, Tsuyoshi; Yoshikawa, Hideki

    2017-04-15

    Peripheral nerve injury is one of common traumas. Although injured peripheral nerves have the capacity to regenerate, axon regeneration proceeds slowly and functional outcomes are often poor. Pharmacological enhancement of regeneration can play an important role in increasing functional recovery. In this study, we developed a novel electrospun nanofiber sheet incorporating methylcobalamin (MeCbl), one of the active forms of vitamin B12 homologues, to deliver it enough locally to the peripheral nerve injury site. We evaluated whether local administration of MeCbl at the nerve injury site was effective in promoting nerve regeneration. Electrospun nanofiber sheets gradually released MeCbl for at least 8weeks when tested in vitro. There was no adverse effect of nanofiber sheets on function in vivo of the peripheral nervous system. Local implantation of nanofiber sheets incorporating MeCbl contributed to the recovery of the motor and sensory function, the recovery of nerve conduction velocity, and the promotion of myelination after sciatic nerve injury, without affecting plasma concentration of MeCbl. Methylcobalamin (MeCbl) is a vitamin B12 analog and we previously reported its effectiveness in axonal outgrowth of neurons and differentiation of Schwann cells both in vitro and in vivo. Here we estimated the effect of local administered MeCbl with an electrospun nanofiber sheet on peripheral nerve injury. Local administration of MeCbl promoted functional recovery in a rat sciatic nerve crush injury model. These sheets are useful for nerve injury in continuity differently from artificial nerve conduits, which are useful only for nerve defects. We believe that the findings of this study are relevant to the scope of your journal and will be of interest to its readership. Copyright © 2017 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Comparison in the calculation of committed effective dose using the ICRP 30 and ICRP 60 models for a repeated incorporation by inhalation of I-125

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carreno P, A.L.; Cortes C, A.; Alonso V, G.; Serrano P, F.

    2005-01-01

    Presently work, a comparison in the calculation of committed effective dose using the models of the ICRP 30 and those of the ICRP 60 for the analysis of internal dose due to repeated incorporation of I-125 is shown. The estimations of incorporated activity are obtained starting from the proportionate data for an exercise of inter comparison, with which it should be determined the internal dose later on. For to estimate the initial activity incorporated by repeated dose was assumed that this it was given through of multiple individual incorporations which happened in the middle points of the monitoring periods. The results using the models of the ICRP 30 and of the ICRP 60 are compared and the causes of the differences are analyzed. (Author)

  10. A modified Wright-Fisher model that incorporates Ne: A variant of the standard model with increased biological realism and reduced computational complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Gossmann, Toni I; Waxman, David

    2016-03-21

    The Wright-Fisher model is an important model in evolutionary biology and population genetics. It has been applied in numerous analyses of finite populations with discrete generations. It is recognised that real populations can behave, in some key aspects, as though their size that is not the census size, N, but rather a smaller size, namely the effective population size, Ne. However, in the Wright-Fisher model, there is no distinction between the effective and census population sizes. Equivalently, we can say that in this model, Ne coincides with N. The Wright-Fisher model therefore lacks an important aspect of biological realism. Here, we present a method that allows Ne to be directly incorporated into the Wright-Fisher model. The modified model involves matrices whose size is determined by Ne. Thus apart from increased biological realism, the modified model also has reduced computational complexity, particularly so when Ne⪡N. For complex problems, it may be hard or impossible to numerically analyse the most commonly-used approximation of the Wright-Fisher model that incorporates Ne, namely the diffusion approximation. An alternative approach is simulation. However, the simulations need to be sufficiently detailed that they yield an effective size that is different to the census size. Simulations may also be time consuming and have attendant statistical errors. The method presented in this work may then be the only alternative to simulations, when Ne differs from N. We illustrate the straightforward application of the method to some problems involving allele fixation and the determination of the equilibrium site frequency spectrum. We then apply the method to the problem of fixation when three alleles are segregating in a population. This latter problem is significantly more complex than a two allele problem and since the diffusion equation cannot be numerically solved, the only other way Ne can be incorporated into the analysis is by simulation. We have

  11. Modified lingguizhugan decoction incorporated with dietary restriction and exercise ameliorates hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia and hypertension in a rat model of the metabolic syndrome

    OpenAIRE

    Yao, Limei; Wei, Jingjing; Shi, Si; Guo, Kunbin; Wang, Xiangyu; Wang, Qi; Chen, Dingsheng; Li, Weirong

    2017-01-01

    Background Modified Lingguizhugan Decoction (MLD) came from famous Chinese medicine Linggui Zhugan Decoction. The MLD is used for the treatment of metabolic syndrome in the clinical setting. Our study focuses on the comprehensive treatment of MLD incorporated with dietary restriction and exercise in a rat model of the metabolic syndrome (MS). Methods Rats were divided into five groups: control group (Cont), high-fat diet group (HFD), high-fat diet incorporated with dietary restriction group (...

  12. Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Lei; Fang, Hongwei; Xu, Xingya; He, Guojian; Zhang, Xuesong; Reible, Danny

    2017-08-01

    Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.

  13. Incorporating adolescent females' perceptions of their partners' attitudes toward condoms into a model of female adolescent condom use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogben, Matthew; Liddon, Nicole; Pierce, Antonya; Sawyer, Mary; Papp, John R; Black, Carolyn M; Koumans, Emilia H

    2006-11-01

    The highest rates of sexually transmitted infections in the U.S. occur among adolescent females. One prevention strategy promoted for sexually active adolescents is condom use: therefore, influences on correct and consistent condom use are worth examining. Because interventions and observational research into predicting and increasing condom use have yielded mixed results, we hypothesized that a theoretically driven model incorporating female adolescents' perceptions about partner sentiments along with their own perceptions, intentions, and behaviours would improve condom use predictions. We also measured condom use errors and consistency for a more precise estimate of effective use than is common in the literature. In three structural equation models tested on a sample of 519 female adolescents, we found that intentions were associated with both correct and consistent condom use; that females' expectancy beliefs about condom use were associated with intentions; and that females' expectancy beliefs about partners' sentiments reduced the impact of their expectancy beliefs about condom use. The implications of these relations upon condom use correctness and consistency are discussed with respect to informing interventions, among other future research.

  14. Experimental characterization and computational modeling of unimorph shape memory polymer actuators incorporating transverse curvature in the substrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantrell, Jason T.

    This document outlines in detail the research performed by applying shape memory polymers in a generic unimorph actuator configuration. A set of experiments designed to investigate the influence of transverse curvature, the relative widths of shape memory polymer and composite substrates, and shape memory polymer thickness on actuator recoverability after multiple thermo-mechanical cycles is presented in detail. A theoretical model of the moment required to maintain shape fixity with minimal shape retention loss was developed and experimentally validated for unimorph composite actuators of varying cross-sectional areas. Theoretical models were also developed and evaluated to determine the relationship between the materials neutral axes and thermal stability during a thermo-mechanical cycle. Research was conducted on the incorporation of shape memory polymers on micro air vehicle wings to maximize shape fixity and shape recoverability while minimizing the volume of shape memory polymer on the wing surface. Applications based research also included experimentally evaluating the feasibility of shape memory polymers on deployable satellite antenna ribs both with and without resistance heaters which could be utilized to assist in antenna deployment.

  15. Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawa, S. R.; Collatz, G. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Denning, A. S.; Wofsy, S. C.; Andrews, A. E.

    2007-01-01

    As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its

  16. Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

    2016-01-01

    The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

  17. Model-Based Evaluation of Higher Doses of Rifampin Using a Semimechanistic Model Incorporating Autoinduction and Saturation of Hepatic Extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirehwa, Maxwell T; Rustomjee, Roxana; Mthiyane, Thuli; Onyebujoh, Philip; Smith, Peter; McIlleron, Helen; Denti, Paolo

    2016-01-01

    Rifampin is a key sterilizing drug in the treatment of tuberculosis (TB). It induces its own metabolism, but neither the onset nor the extent of autoinduction has been adequately described. Currently, the World Health Organization recommends a rifampin dose of 8 to 12 mg/kg of body weight, which is believed to be suboptimal, and higher doses may potentially improve treatment outcomes. However, a nonlinear increase in exposure may be observed because of saturation of hepatic extraction and hence this should be taken into consideration when a dose increase is implemented. Intensive pharmacokinetic (PK) data from 61 HIV-TB-coinfected patients in South Africa were collected at four visits, on days 1, 8, 15, and 29, after initiation of treatment. Data were analyzed by population nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Rifampin PKs were best described by using a transit compartment absorption and a well-stirred liver model with saturation of hepatic extraction, including a first-pass effect. Autoinduction was characterized by using an exponential-maturation model: hepatic clearance almost doubled from the baseline to steady state, with a half-life of around 4.5 days. The model predicts that increases in the dose of rifampin result in more-than-linear drug exposure increases as measured by the 24-h area under the concentration-time curve. Simulations with doses of up to 35 mg/kg produced results closely in line with those of clinical trials. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  18. Modeling regional cropland GPP by empirically incorporating sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence into a coupled photosynthesis-fluorescence model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Guanter, L.; Van der Tol, C.; Joiner, J.; Berry, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Global sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) retrievals are currently available from several satellites. SIF is intrinsically linked to photosynthesis, so the new data sets allow to link remotely-sensed vegetation parameters and the actual photosynthetic activity of plants. In this study, we used space measurements of SIF together with the Soil-Canopy Observation of Photosynthesis and Energy (SCOPE) balance model in order to simulate regional photosynthetic uptake of croplands in the US corn belt. SCOPE couples fluorescence and photosynthesis at leaf and canopy levels. To do this, we first retrieved a key parameter of photosynthesis model, the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax), from field measurements of CO2 and water flux during 2007-2012 at some crop eddy covariance flux sites in the Midwestern US. Then we empirically calibrated Vcmax with apparent fluorescence yield which is SIF divided by PAR. SIF retrievals are from the European GOME-2 instrument onboard the MetOp-A platform. The resulting apparent fluorescence yield shows a stronger relationship with Vcmax during the growing season than widely-used vegetation index, EVI and NDVI. New seasonal and regional Vcmax maps were derived based on the calibration model for the cropland of the corn belt. The uncertainties of Vcmax were also estimated through Gaussian error propagation. With the newly derived Vcmax maps, we modeled regional cropland GPP during the growing season for the Midwestern USA, with meteorological data from MERRA reanalysis data and LAI from MODIS product (MCD15A2). The results show the improvement in the seasonal and spatial patterns of cropland productivity in comparisons with both flux tower and agricultural inventory data.

  19. An integrated stochastic multi-regional long-term energy planning model incorporating autonomous power systems and demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E.; Liu, Pei; Georgiadis, Michael C.

    2015-01-01

    The power sector faces a rapid transformation worldwide from a dominant fossil-fueled towards a low carbon electricity generation mix. Renewable energy technologies (RES) are steadily becoming a greater part of the global energy mix, in particular in regions that have put in place policies and measures to promote their utilization. This paper presents an optimization-based approach to address the generation expansion planning (GEP) problem of a large-scale, central power system in a highly uncertain and volatile electricity industry environment. A multi-regional, multi-period linear mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented, combining optimization techniques with a Monte Carlo (MCA) method and demand response concepts. The optimization goal concerns the minimization of the total discounted cost by determining optimal power capacity additions per time interval and region, and the power generation mix per technology and time period. The model is evaluated on the Greek power system (GPS), taking also into consideration the scheduled interconnection of the mainland power system with those of selected autonomous islands (Cyclades and Crete), and aims at providing full insight into the composition of the long-term energy roadmap at a national level. - Highlights: • A spatial, multi-period, long-term generation expansion planning model is presented. • A Monte-Carlo method along with a demand response mechanism are incorporated. • Autonomous power systems interconnection is considered. • Electricity and CO 2 emission trade are taken into account. • Lignite, natural gas and wind power comprise the dominant power technologies

  20. A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton-Johnson, A.; Halpin, J.; Whittaker, J. M.; Graham, F. S.; Watson, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We present recently published findings (Burton-Johnson et al., 2017) on the variability of Antarctic sub-glacial heat flux and the impact from upper crustal geology. Our new method reveals that the upper crust contributes up to 70% of the Antarctic Peninsula's subglacial heat flux, and that heat flux values are more variable at smaller spatial resolutions than geophysical methods can resolve. Results indicate a higher heat flux on the east and south of the Peninsula (mean 81 mWm-2) where silicic rocks predominate, than on the west and north (mean 67 mWm-2) where volcanic arc and quartzose sediments are dominant. Whilst the data supports the contribution of HPE-enriched granitic rocks to high heat flux values, sedimentary rocks can be of comparative importance dependent on their provenance and petrography. Models of subglacial heat flux must utilize a heterogeneous upper crust with variable radioactive heat production if they are to accurately predict basal conditions of the ice sheet. Our new methodology and dataset facilitate improved numerical model simulations of ice sheet dynamics. The most significant challenge faced remains accurate determination of crustal structure, particularly the depths of the HPE-enriched sedimentary basins and the sub-glacial geology away from exposed outcrops. Continuing research (particularly detailed geophysical interpretation) will better constrain these unknowns and the effect of upper crustal geology on the Antarctic ice sheet. Burton-Johnson, A., Halpin, J.A., Whittaker, J.M., Graham, F.S., and Watson, S.J., 2017, A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 44, doi: 10.1002/2017GL073596.

  1. Development of a New Analog Test System Capable of Modeling Tectonic Deformation Incorporating the Effects of Pore Fluid Pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, M.; Nakajima, H.; Takeda, M.; Aung, T. T.

    2005-12-01

    Understanding and predicting the tectonic deformation within geologic strata has been a very important research subject in many fields such as structural geology and petroleum geology. In recent years, such research has also become a fundamental necessity for the assessment of active fault migration, site selection for geological disposal of radioactive nuclear waste and exploration for methane hydrate. Although analog modeling techniques have played an important role in the elucidation of the tectonic deformation mechanisms, traditional approaches have typically used dry materials and ignored the effects of pore fluid pressure. In order for analog models to properly depict the tectonic deformation of the targeted, large-prototype system within a small laboratory-scale configuration, physical properties of the models, including geometry, force, and time, must be correctly scaled. Model materials representing brittle rock behavior require an internal friction identical to the prototype rock and virtually zero cohesion. Granular materials such as sand, glass beads, or steel beads of dry condition have been preferably used for this reason in addition to their availability and ease of handling. Modeling protocols for dry granular materials have been well established but such model tests cannot account for the pore fluid effects. Although the concept of effective stress has long been recognized and the role of pore-fluid pressure in tectonic deformation processes is evident, there have been few analog model studies that consider the effects of pore fluid movement. Some new applications require a thorough understanding of the coupled deformation and fluid flow processes within the strata. Taking the field of waste management as an example, deep geological disposal of radioactive waste has been thought to be an appropriate methodology for the safe isolation of the wastes from the human environment until the toxicity of the wastes decays to non-hazardous levels. For the

  2. Mathematical modeling of (13)C label incorporation of the TCA cycle: the concept of composite precursor function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uffmann, Kai; Gruetter, Rolf

    2007-11-15

    A novel approach for the mathematical modeling of (13)C label incorporation into amino acids via the TCA cycle that eliminates the explicit calculation of the labeling of the TCA cycle intermediates is described, resulting in one differential equation per measurable time course of labeled amino acid. The equations demonstrate that both glutamate C4 and C3 labeling depend in a predictable manner on both transmitochondrial exchange rate, V(X), and TCA cycle rate, V(TCA). For example, glutamate C4 labeling alone does not provide any information on either V(X) or V(TCA) but rather a composite "flux". Interestingly, glutamate C3 simultaneously receives label not only from pyruvate C3 but also from glutamate C4, described by composite precursor functions that depend in a probabilistic way on the ratio of V(X) to V(TCA): An initial rate of labeling of glutamate C3 (or C2) being close to zero is indicative of a high V(X)/V(TCA). The derived analytical solution of these equations shows that, when the labeling of the precursor pool pyruvate reaches steady state quickly compared with the turnover rate of the measured amino acids, instantaneous labeling can be assumed for pyruvate. The derived analytical solution has acceptable errors compared with experimental uncertainty, thus obviating precise knowledge on the labeling kinetics of the precursor. In conclusion, a substantial reformulation of the modeling of label flow via the TCA cycle turnover into the amino acids is presented in the current study. This approach allows one to determine metabolic rates by fitting explicit mathematical functions to measured time courses.

  3. Development of whole core thermal-hydraulic analysis program ACT. 4. Incorporation of three-dimensional upper plenum model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohshima, Hiroyuki

    2003-03-01

    The thermal-hydraulic analysis computer program ACT is under development for the evaluation of detailed flow and temperature fields in a core region of fast breeder reactors under various operation conditions. The purpose of this program development is to contribute not only to clarifying thermal hydraulic characteristics that cannot be revealed by experiments due to measurement difficulty but also to performing rational safety design and assessment. This report describes the incorporation of a three-dimensional upper plenum model to ACT and its verification study as part of the program development. To treat the influence of three-dimensional thermal-hydraulic behavior in a upper plenum on the in-core temperature field, the multi-dimensional general purpose thermal-hydraulic analysis program AQUA, which was developed and validated at JNC, was applied as the base of the upper plenum analysis module of ACT. AQUA enables to model the upper plenum configuration including immersed heat exchangers of the direct reactor auxiliary cooling system (DRACS). In coupling core analysis module that consists of the fuel-assembly and the inter-wrapper gap calculation parts with the upper plenum module, different types of computation mesh systems were jointed using the staggered quarter assembly mesh scheme. A coupling algorithm among core, upper plenum and heat transport system modules, which can keep mass, momentum and energy conservation, was developed and optimized in consideration of parallel computing. ACT was applied to analyzing a sodium experiment (PLANDTL-DHX) performed at JNC, which simulated the natural circulation decay heat removal under DRACS operation conditions for the program verification. From the calculation result, the validity of the improved program was confirmed. (author)

  4. Hydrological simulation in a basin of typical tropical climate and soil using the SWAT model part I: Calibration and validation tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donizete dos R. Pereira

    2016-09-01

    New hydrological insights: The SWAT model was qualified for simulating the Pomba River sub-basin in the sites where rainfall representation was reasonable to good. The model can be used in the simulation of maximum, average and minimum annual daily streamflow based on the paired t-test, contributing with the water resources management of region, although the model still needs to be improved, mainly in the representativeness of rainfall, to give better estimates of extreme values.

  5. A three-scale model for ionic solute transport in swelling clays incorporating ion-ion correlation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Tien Dung; Moyne, Christian; Murad, Marcio A.

    2015-01-01

    A new three-scale model is proposed to describe the movement of ionic species of different valences in swelling clays characterized by three separate length scales (nano, micro, and macro) and two levels of porosity (nano- and micropores). At the finest (nano) scale the medium is treated as charged clay particles saturated by aqueous electrolyte solution containing monovalent and divalent ions forming the electrical double layer. A new constitutive law is constructed for the disjoining pressure based on the numerical resolution of non-local problem at the nanoscale which, in contrast to the Poisson-Boltzmann theory for point charge ions, is capable of capturing the short-range interactions between the ions due to their finite size. At the intermediate scale (microscale), the two-phase homogenized particle/electrolyte solution system is represented by swollen clay clusters (or aggregates) with the nanoscale disjoining pressure incorporated in a modified form of Terzaghi's effective principle. At the macroscale, the electro-chemical-mechanical couplings within clay clusters is homogenized with the ion transport in the bulk fluid lying in the micro pores. The resultant macroscopic picture is governed by a three-scale model wherein ion transport takes place in the bulk solution strongly coupled with the mechanics of the clay clusters which play the role of sources/sinks of mass to the bulk fluid associated with ion adsorption/desorption in the electrical double layer at the nanoscale. Within the context of the quasi-steady version of the multiscale model, wherein the electrolyte solution in the nanopores is assumed at instantaneous thermodynamic equilibrium with the bulk fluid in the micropores, we build-up numerically the ion-adsorption isotherms along with the constitutive law of the retardation coefficients of monovalent and divalent ions. In addition, the constitutive law for the macroscopic swelling pressure is reconstructed numerically showing patterns of

  6. Modeling of oxygen incorporation in Th, ThC, and ThN by density functional theory calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez Daroca, D.; Llois, A. M.; Mosca, H. O.

    2017-12-01

    Oxygen incorporation in nuclear fuel materials is an important issue deserving investigation due to its influence on thermophysical and structural properties. Even if there has been a renewed interest in thorium and thorium compounds in the last years, there is still not much research done on this topic. In this work, we study, by means of density functional theory calculations, the incorporation of oxygen in Th, ThC, and ThN. We analyze the electronic structure finding a characteristic peak to be attributed to oxygen incorporation. We also calculate incorporation and solution energies and obtain migration energies of oxygen through different paths finding that migration through vacancy sites is more energetically favorable than through interstitial ones.

  7. Total motion generated in the unstable thoracolumbar spine during management of the typical trauma patient: a comparison of methods in a cadaver model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasarn, Mark L; Zhou, Haitao; Dubose, Dewayne; Rossi, Gianluca Del; Conrad, Bryan P; Horodyski, Marybeth; Rechtine, Glenn R

    2012-05-01

    The proper prehospital and inpatient management of patients with unstable spinal injuries is critical for prevention of secondary neurological compromise. The authors sought to analyze the amount of motion generated in the unstable thoracolumbar spine during various maneuvers and transfers that a trauma patient would typically be subjected to prior to definitive fixation. Five fresh cadavers with surgically created unstable L-1 burst fractures were tested. The amount of angular motion between the T-12 and L-2 vertebral segments was measured using a 3D electromagnetic motion analysis device. A complete sequence of maneuvers and transfers was then performed that a patient would be expected to go through from the time of injury until surgical fixation. These maneuvers and transfers included spine board placement and removal, bed transfers, lateral therapy, and turning the patient prone onto the operating table. During each of these, the authors performed what they believed to be the most commonly used versus the best techniques for preventing undesirable motion at the injury level. When placing a spine board there was more motion in all 3 planes with the log-roll technique, and this difference reached statistical significance for axial rotation (p = 0.018) and lateral bending (p = 0.003). Using logrolling for spine board removal resulted in increased motion again, and this was statistically significant for flexion-extension (p = 0.014). During the bed transfer and lateral therapy, the log-roll technique resulted in more motion in all 3 planes (p ≤ 0.05). When turning the cadavers prone for surgery there was statistically more angular motion in each plane for manually turning the patient versus the Jackson table turn (p ≤ 0.01). The total motion was decreased by almost 50% in each plane when using an alternative to the log-roll techniques during the complete sequence (p ≤ 0.007). Although it is unknown how much motion in the unstable spine is necessary to cause

  8. Mathematical modelling of oil spill fate and transport in the marine environment incorporating biodegradation kinetics of oil droplets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanoudaki, Katerina

    2016-04-01

    Oil biodegradation by native bacteria is one of the most important natural processes that can attenuate the environmental impacts of marine oil spills. However, very few numerical models of oil spill fate and transport include biodegradation kinetics of spilled oil. Furthermore, in models where biodegradation is included amongst the oil transformation processes simulated, it is mostly represented as a first order decay process neglecting the effect of several important parameters that can limit biodegradation rate, such as oil composition and oil droplets-water interface. To this end, the open source numerical model MEDSKIL-II, which simulates oil spill fate and transport in the marine environment, has been modified to include biodegradation kinetics of oil droplets dispersed in the water column. MEDSLIK-II predicts the transport and weathering of oil spills following a Lagrangian approach for the solution of the advection-diffusion equation. Transport is governed by the 3D sea currents and wave field provided by ocean circulation models. In addition to advective and diffusive displacements, the model simulates several physical and chemical processes that transform the oil (evaporation, emulsification, dispersion in the water column, adhesion to coast). The fate algorithms employed in MEDSLIK-II consider the oil as a uniform substance whose properties change as the slick weathers, an approach that can lead to reduced accuracy, especially in the estimation of oil evaporation and biodegradation. Therefore MEDSLIK-II has been modified by adopting the "pseudo-component" approach for simulating weathering processes. Spilled oil is modelled as a relatively small number of discrete, non-interacting components (pseudo-components). Chemicals in the oil mixture are grouped by physical-chemical properties and the resulting pseudo-component behaves as if it were a single substance with characteristics typical of the chemical group. The fate (evaporation, dispersion

  9. Total motion generated in the unstable cervical spine during management of the typical trauma patient: a comparison of methods in a cadaver model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasarn, Mark L; Horodyski, MaryBeth; Dubose, Dewayne; Small, John; Del Rossi, Gianluca; Zhou, Haitao; Conrad, Bryan P; Rechtine, Glenn R

    2012-05-15

    Biomechanical cadaveric study. We sought to analyze the amount of motion generated in the unstable cervical spine during various maneuvers and transfers that a trauma patient would typically be subjected to prior to definitive fixation, using 2 different protocols. From the time of injury until the spine is adequately stabilized in the operating room, every step in management of the spine-injured patient can result in secondary injury to the spinal cord. The amount of angular motion between C5 and C6, after a surgically created unstable injury, was measured using an electromagnetic motion analysis device (Polhemus Inc., Colchester, VT). A total sequence of maneuvers and transfers was then performed that a patient would be expected to go through from the time of injury until surgical fixation. This included spine board placement and removal, bed transfers, lateral therapy, and turning the patient prone onto the operating table. During each of these, we performed what has been shown to be the best and commonly used (log-roll) techniques. During bed transfers and the turn prone for surgery, there was statistically more angular motion in each plane for traditional transfer with the spine board and manually turning the patient prone as commonly done (P patient from the field to stabilization in the operating room using the best compared with the most commonly used techniques. As previously reported, using log-roll techniques consistently results in unwanted motion at the injured spinal segment.

  10. Advances in Modeling Streambank Stability by Incorporating the Mechanical and Hydrologic Effects of Woody and Herbaceous Riparian Vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, A.; Collison, A. J.

    2001-12-01

    Sediment is one of the principle pollutants of surface waters of the United States. Sediment derived from streambanks by mass failure is a significant contributor to water-quality and land management problems. Accurately modeling streambank stability and potential mitigation strategies using riparian vegetation involves quantifying the hydrologic and mechanical factors that control the driving and resisting forces imposed by bank material, ground and surface water and the vegetation. Stabilization of streambanks using riparian vegetation offers numerous potential benefits and some potential problems that are related to mechanical and hydrological effects that are rarely quantified. In this study mechanical reinforcement of various woody and herbaceous riparian species is quantified with in situ, field measurements of root tensile strength, root sizes and root distribution that are used to calculate increases in soil cohesion. Hydrological effects of vegetation are monitored at the Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed, Mississippi using interception plots and tensiometers under three vegetative covers: cropped grass `control' cover, clumps of eastern gamma grass, and a deciduous woody-vegetation stand. The ARS Bank-Stability Model which accounts for complex bank geometries, up to five soil layers, positive and negative pore-water pressures and confining pressure due to streamflow is used to evaluate the effectiveness of various vegetative treatments based on the field data. The model is used to evaluate the individual and combined effects of vegetation on streambank stability. On April 4 th 2000 prolonged rainfall at the field site caused bank failure at the control cover plot, providing useful validation data for the analysis. The resulting factor of safety (Fs) values (incorporating both hydrological and mechanical effects) were 1.04, 1.64 and 2.18, respectively. Results show that the main contribution of the woody-vegetation to bank stability during the study

  11. Analysis of PWR control rod ejection accident with the coupled code system SKETCH-INS/TRACE by incorporating pin power reconstruction model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, T.; Sakai, T.

    2010-01-01

    The pin power reconstruction model was incorporated in the 3-D nodal kinetics code SKETCH-INS in order to produce accurate calculation of three-dimensional pin power distributions throughout the reactor core. In order to verify the employed pin power reconstruction model, the PWR MOX/UO 2 core transient benchmark problem was analyzed with the coupled code system SKETCH-INS/TRACE by incorporating the model and the influence of pin power reconstruction model was studied. SKETCH-INS pin power distributions for 3 benchmark problems were compared with the PARCS solutions which were provided by the host organisation of the benchmark. SKETCH-INS results were in good agreement with the PARCS results. The capability of employed pin power reconstruction model was confirmed through the analysis of benchmark problems. A PWR control rod ejection benchmark problem was analyzed with the coupled code system SKETCH-INS/ TRACE by incorporating the pin power reconstruction model. The influence of pin power reconstruction model was studied by comparing with the result of conventional node averaged flux model. The results indicate that the pin power reconstruction model has significant effect on the pin powers during transient and hence on the fuel enthalpy

  12. Extended Fitts' model of pointing time in eye-gaze input system - Incorporating effects of target shape and movement direction into modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murata, Atsuo; Fukunaga, Daichi

    2018-04-01

    This study attempted to investigate the effects of the target shape and the movement direction on the pointing time using an eye-gaze input system and extend Fitts' model so that these factors are incorporated into the model and the predictive power of Fitts' model is enhanced. The target shape, the target size, the movement distance, and the direction of target presentation were set as within-subject experimental variables. The target shape included: a circle, and rectangles with an aspect ratio of 1:1, 1:2, 1:3, and 1:4. The movement direction included eight directions: upper, lower, left, right, upper left, upper right, lower left, and lower right. On the basis of the data for identifying the effects of the target shape and the movement direction on the pointing time, an attempt was made to develop a generalized and extended Fitts' model that took into account the movement direction and the target shape. As a result, the generalized and extended model was found to fit better to the experimental data, and be more effective for predicting the pointing time for a variety of human-computer interaction (HCI) task using an eye-gaze input system. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Simulation of changes in heavy metal contamination in farmland soils of a typical manufacturing center through logistic-based cellular automata modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Menglong; Wang, Qi; Li, Fangbai; Chen, Junjian; Yang, Guoyi; Liu, Liming

    2016-01-01

    A customized logistic-based cellular automata (CA) model was developed to simulate changes in heavy metal contamination (HMC) in farmland soils of Dongguan, a manufacturing center in Southern China, and to discover the relationship between HMC and related explanatory variables (continuous and categorical). The model was calibrated through the simulation and validation of HMC in 2012. Thereafter, the model was implemented for the scenario simulation of development alternatives for HMC in 2022. The HMC in 2002 and 2012 was determined through soil tests and cokriging. Continuous variables were divided into two groups by odds ratios. Positive variables (odds ratios >1) included the Nemerow synthetic pollution index in 2002, linear drainage density, distance from the city center, distance from the railway, slope, and secondary industrial output per unit of land. Negative variables (odds ratios simulation shows that the government should not only implement stricter environmental regulation but also strengthen the remediation of the current polluted area to effectively mitigate HMC.

  14. Developing an Integrated Design Model Incorporating Technology Philosophy for the Design of Healthcare Environments: A Case Analysis of Facilities for Psychogeriatric and Psychiatric Care in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. van Hoof; M.J. Verkerk

    2013-01-01

    van Hoof, J., Verkerk, M.J. (2013) Developing an Integrated Design Model Incorporating Technology Philosophy for the Design of Healthcare Environments: A Case Analysis of Facilities for Psychogeriatric and Psychiatric Care in The Netherlands. Technology in Society 35(1):1-13

  15. Impact of Biodiesel Fuels on Air Quality and Human Health: Task 1 Report; Incorporate Biodiesel Data into Vehicle Emissions Databases for Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindhjem, C.; Pollack, A.

    2003-05-01

    This document is the Task 1 report for the NREL"Impact of Biodiesel Fuels on Air Quality and Human Health" study. This report provides a discussion and analysis of the available biodiesel test data, and makes recommendations for how biodiesel effects on pollutant mass emissions as well as chemical composition should be incorporated into emission inventories for use in air quality modeling.

  16. Landscape-scale parameterization of a tree-level forest growth model: a k-nearest neighbor imputation approach incorporating LiDAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael J. Falkowski; Andrew T. Hudak; Nicholas L. Crookston; Paul E. Gessler; Edward H. Uebler; Alistair M. S. Smith

    2010-01-01

    Sustainable forest management requires timely, detailed forest inventory data across large areas, which is difficult to obtain via traditional forest inventory techniques. This study evaluated k-nearest neighbor imputation models incorporating LiDAR data to predict tree-level inventory data (individual tree height, diameter at breast height, and...

  17. Getting the tail to wag the dog: Incorporating groundwater transport into catchment solute transport models using rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harman, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    Surface water hydrologic models are increasingly used to analyze the transport of solutes through the landscape, such as nitrate. However, many of these models cannot adequately capture the effect of groundwater flow paths, which can have long travel times and accumulate legacy contaminants, releasing them to streams over decades. If these long lag times are not accounted for, the short-term efficacy of management activities to reduce nitrogen loads may be overestimated. Models that adopt a simple 'well-mixed' assumption, leading to an exponential transit time distribution at steady state, cannot adequately capture the broadly skewed nature of groundwater transit times in typical watersheds. Here I will demonstrate how StorAge Selection functions can be used to capture the long lag times of groundwater in a typical subwatershed-based hydrologic model framework typical of models like SWAT, HSPF, HBV, PRMS and others. These functions can be selected and calibrated to reproduce historical data where available, but can also be fitted to the results of a steady-state groundwater transport model like MODFLOW/MODPATH, allowing those results to directly inform the parameterization of an unsteady surface water model. The long tails of the transit time distribution predicted by the groundwater model can then be completely captured by the surface water model. Examples of this application in the Chesapeake Bay watersheds and elsewhere will be given.

  18. A corrected model for static and dynamic electromechanical instability of narrow nanotweezers: Incorporation of size effect, surface layer and finite dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koochi, Ali; Hosseini-Toudeshky, Hossein; Abadyan, Mohamadreza

    2018-03-01

    Herein, a corrected theoretical model is proposed for modeling the static and dynamic behavior of electrostatically actuated narrow-width nanotweezers considering the correction due to finite dimensions, size dependency and surface energy. The Gurtin-Murdoch surface elasticity in conjunction with the modified couple stress theory is employed to consider the coupling effect of surface stresses and size phenomenon. In addition, the model accounts for the external force corrections by incorporating the impact of narrow width on the distribution of Casimir attraction, van der Waals (vdW) force and the fringing field effect. The proposed model is beneficial for the precise modeling of the narrow nanotweezers in nano-scale.

  19. VCP associated inclusion body myopathy and paget disease of bone knock-in mouse model exhibits tissue pathology typical of human disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mallikarjun Badadani

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Dominant mutations in the valosin containing protein (VCP gene cause inclusion body myopathy associated with Paget's disease of bone and frontotemporal dementia (IBMPFD. We have generated a knock-in mouse model with the common R155H mutation. Mice demonstrate progressive muscle weakness starting approximately at the age of 6 months. Histology of mutant muscle showed progressive vacuolization of myofibrils and centrally located nuclei, and immunostaining shows progressive cytoplasmic accumulation of TDP-43 and ubiquitin-positive inclusion bodies in quadriceps myofibrils and brain. Increased LC3-II staining of muscle sections representing increased number of autophagosomes suggested impaired autophagy. Increased apoptosis was demonstrated by elevated caspase-3 activity and increased TUNEL-positive nuclei. X-ray microtomography (uCT images show radiolucency of distal femurs and proximal tibiae in knock-in mice and uCT morphometrics shows decreased trabecular pattern and increased cortical wall thickness. Bone histology and bone marrow derived macrophage cultures in these mice revealed increased osteoclastogenesis observed by TRAP staining suggestive of Paget bone disease. The VCP(R155H/+ knock-in mice replicate the muscle, bone and brain pathology of inclusion body myopathy, thus representing a useful model for preclinical studies.

  20. A family of spatial interaction models incorporating information flows and choice set constraints applied to U.S. interstate labor flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T R; Slater, P B

    1981-01-01

    "A new family of migration models belonging to the elimination by aspects family is examined, with the spatial interaction model shown to be a special case. The models have simple forms; they incorporate information flow processes and choice set constraints; they are free of problems raised by the Luce Choice Axiom; and are capable of generating intransitive flows. Preliminary calibrations using the Continuous Work History Sample [time] series data indicate that the model fits the migration data well, while providing estimates of interstate job message flows. The preliminary calculations also indicate that care is needed in assuming that destination [attraction] are independent of origins." excerpt

  1. Modeling the relationship between landscape characteristics and water quality in a typical highly intensive agricultural small watershed, Dongting lake basin, south central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongqing; Liu, Liming; Ji, Xiang

    2015-03-01

    Understanding the relationship between landscape characteristics and water quality is critically important for estimating pollution potential and reducing pollution risk. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between landscape characteristics and water quality at both spatial and temporal scales. The study took place in the Jinjing River watershed in 2010; seven landscape types and four water quality pollutions were chosen as analysis parameters. Three different buffer areas along the river were drawn to analyze the relationship as a function of spatial scale. The results of a Pearson's correlation coefficient analysis suggest that "source" landscape, namely, tea gardens, residential areas, and paddy lands, have positive effects on water quality parameters, while forests exhibit a negative influence on water quality parameters because they represent a "sink" landscape and the sub-watershed level is identified as a suitable scale. Using the principal component analysis, tea gardens, residential areas, paddy lands, and forests were identified as the main landscape index. A stepwise multiple regression analysis was employed to model the relationship between landscape characteristics and water quality for each season. The results demonstrate that both landscape composition and configuration affect water quality. In summer and winter, the landscape metrics explained approximately 80.7 % of the variance in the water quality variables, which was higher than that for spring and fall (60.3 %). This study can help environmental managers to understand the relationships between landscapes and water quality and provide landscape ecological approaches for water quality control and land use management.

  2. Analysis of spatial distribution characteristics of dissolved organic matter in typical greenhouse soil of northern China using three dimensional fluorescence spectra technique and parallel factor analysis model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hong-wei; Lei, Hong-jun; Han, Yu-ping; Xi, Bei-dou; He, Xiao-song; Xu, Qi-gong; Li, Dan

    2014-06-01

    The aim of the present work is to study the soil DOM characteristics in the vegetable greenhouse with a long-term of cultivation. Results showed that the soil DOM mainly consisted of three components, fulvic acid-like (C1), humic acid-like (C2) and protein-like (C3), with C1 as the majority one. The distribution of DOM in space was also studied. In vertical direction, C1 and C2 decreased significantly with the increase in soil depth, while C3 component decreased after increased. The humification coefficient decreased fast from 0-20 to 30-40 cm, and then increased from 30-40 to 40-50 cm. In the horizontal direction, the level of C2 component varied greatly in space, while that of C1 component changed little, and that of C3 component fell in between the above two. The change in the humification degree of each soil layer significantly varied spatially. Humification process of soil organic matter mainly occurred in the surface soil layer. In addition, the humification degree in space also changed significantly. The new ideas of this study are: (1) Analyze the composition and spatial heterogeneity of soil DOM in the vegetable greenhouse; (2) Use three dimensional fluorescence spectra technology and parallel factor analysis model successfully to quantify the components of soil DOM, which provides a new method for the soil DOM analysis.

  3. Typical errors of ESP users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eremina, Svetlana V.; Korneva, Anna A.

    2004-07-01

    The paper presents analysis of the errors made by ESP (English for specific purposes) users which have been considered as typical. They occur as a result of misuse of resources of English grammar and tend to resist. Their origin and places of occurrence have also been discussed.

  4. Incorporating biologic measurements (SF2, CFE) into a tumor control probability model increases their prognostic significance: a study in cervical carcinoma treated with radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buffa, Francesca Meteora; Davidson, Susan E.; Hunter, Robert D.; Nahum, Alan E.; West, Catharine M.L.

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: To assess whether incorporation of measurements of surviving fraction at 2 Gy (SF 2 ) and colony-forming efficiency (CFE) into a tumor control probability (tcp) model increases their prognostic significance. Methods and Materials: Measurements of SF 2 and CFE were available from a study on carcinoma of the cervix treated with radiation alone. These measurements, as well as tumor volume, dose, and treatment time, were incorporated into a Poisson tcp model (tcp α,ρ ). Regression analysis was performed to assess the prognostic power of tcp α,ρ vs. the use of either tcp models with biologic parameters fixed to best-fit estimates (but incorporating individual dose, volume, and treatment time) or the use of SF 2 and CFE measurements alone. Results: In a univariate regression analysis of 44 patients, tcp α,ρ was a better prognostic factor for both local control and survival (p 2 alone (p=0.009 for local control, p=0.29 for survival) or CFE alone (p=0.015 for local control, p=0.38 for survival). In multivariate analysis, tcp α,ρ emerged as the most important prognostic factor for local control (p α,ρ , CFE was still a significant independent prognostic factor for local control, whereas SF 2 was not. The sensitivities of tcp α,ρ and SF 2 as predictive tests for local control were 87% and 65%, respectively. Specificities were 70% and 77%, respectively. Conclusions: A Poisson tcp model incorporating individual SF 2 , CFE, dose, tumor volume, and treatment time was found to be the best independent prognostic factor for local control and survival in cervical carcinoma patients

  5. Typical IAEA inspection procedures for model plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theis, W.

    1984-01-01

    This session briefly refers to the legal basis for IAEA inspections and to their objectives. It describes in detail the planning and performance of IAEA inspections, including the examination of records, the comparison of facility records with State reports, flow and inventory verifications, the design of statistical sampling plans, and Agency's independent verification measurements. In addition, the session addresses the principles of Material Balance and MUF evaluation, as well as the content and format of summary statements and related problems

  6. Incorporating cyclical effects and time-varying covariates in models for single-source capture-recapture data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Husken, T.F.; Cruyff, M.J.L.F.; van der Heijden, P.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    The objective of capture-recapture analysis is to estimate the size of an elusive population, for which the zero-truncated Poisson model is a basic model. We extend this model to the more general recurrent events model to include cyclical eects and time-varying covariates. An application to police

  7. A call for the need to incorporate enterprise risk management as part of the overall business model innovation process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taran, Yariv; Boer, Harry; Lindgren, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Relative to, for example, radical product innovation process, little isknown about business model innovation, let alone the process of managingthe risks involved in that process. Using the emerging Enterprise RiskManagement (ERM) literature, an approach is proposed through whichrisk management can...... be embedded in the business model innovationprocess. The integrated risk management/business model innovationprocess model has been tested through an action research study in aDanish company. The results are promising and warrant continuation ofthe development of that model....

  8. Modified lingguizhugan decoction incorporated with dietary restriction and exercise ameliorates hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia and hypertension in a rat model of the metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Limei; Wei, Jingjing; Shi, Si; Guo, Kunbin; Wang, Xiangyu; Wang, Qi; Chen, Dingsheng; Li, Weirong

    2017-02-28

    Modified Lingguizhugan Decoction (MLD) came from famous Chinese medicine Linggui Zhugan Decoction. The MLD is used for the treatment of metabolic syndrome in the clinical setting. Our study focuses on the comprehensive treatment of MLD incorporated with dietary restriction and exercise in a rat model of the metabolic syndrome (MS). Rats were divided into five groups: control group (Cont), high-fat diet group (HFD), high-fat diet incorporated with dietary restriction group (HFD-DR), exercise incorporated with dietary restriction group (HFD-DR-Ex) and MLD incorporated with dietary restriction and exercise group (HFD-DR-Ex-MLD). Treatments were conducted for 1 week after feeding high-fat diet for 12 weeks. The effects of treatments on high fat diet-induced obesity, hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, hepatic injury and insulin resistance in rats of MS were examined. In addition, the tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), leptin and protein kinase B (PKB) in rats serum and liver were also examined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). After a week's intervention by dietary restriction, dietary restriction incorporated with exercise or MLD, compared with HFD rats, the relative weight of liver and fat, levels of triglyceride, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, free fatty acid, aspartate aminotransferase, glutamic-pyruvic transaminase and alkaline phosphatase, insulin, were significantly decreased (p dietary restriction and exercise treatment exhibit effects in alleviating high-fat diet-induced obesity, hyperglycemia, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, hepatic injury and insulin resistance, which are possibly due to the down-regulation of TNF-α, leptin and PKB.

  9. Macro-level pedestrian and bicycle crash analysis: Incorporating spatial spillover effects in dual state count models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Qing; Lee, Jaeyoung; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

    2016-08-01

    This study attempts to explore the viability of dual-state models (i.e., zero-inflated and hurdle models) for traffic analysis zones (TAZs) based pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency analysis. Additionally, spatial spillover effects are explored in the models by employing exogenous variables from neighboring zones. The dual-state models such as zero-inflated negative binomial and hurdle negative binomial models (with and without spatial effects) are compared with the conventional single-state model (i.e., negative binomial). The model comparison for pedestrian and bicycle crashes revealed that the models that considered observed spatial effects perform better than the models that did not consider the observed spatial effects. Across the models with spatial spillover effects, the dual-state models especially zero-inflated negative binomial model offered better performance compared to single-state models. Moreover, the model results clearly highlighted the importance of various traffic, roadway, and sociodemographic characteristics of the TAZ as well as neighboring TAZs on pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Incorporation of the equilibrium temperature approach in a Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydroclimatological stream temperature model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xinzhong; Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Ficklin, Darren L.; Wang, Junye

    2018-04-01

    Stream temperature is an important indicator for biodiversity and sustainability in aquatic ecosystems. The stream temperature model currently in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) only considers the impact of air temperature on stream temperature, while the hydroclimatological stream temperature model developed within the SWAT model considers hydrology and the impact of air temperature in simulating the water-air heat transfer process. In this study, we modified the hydroclimatological model by including the equilibrium temperature approach to model heat transfer processes at the water-air interface, which reflects the influences of air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and streamflow conditions on the heat transfer process. The thermal capacity of the streamflow is modeled by the variation of the stream water depth. An advantage of this equilibrium temperature model is the simple parameterization, with only two parameters added to model the heat transfer processes. The equilibrium temperature model proposed in this study is applied and tested in the Athabasca River basin (ARB) in Alberta, Canada. The model is calibrated and validated at five stations throughout different parts of the ARB, where close to monthly samplings of stream temperatures are available. The results indicate that the equilibrium temperature model proposed in this study provided better and more consistent performances for the different regions of the ARB with the values of the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) greater than those of the original SWAT model and the hydroclimatological model. To test the model performance for different hydrological and environmental conditions, the equilibrium temperature model was also applied to the North Fork Tolt River Watershed in Washington, United States. The results indicate a reasonable simulation of stream temperature using the model proposed in this study, with minimum relative error values compared to the other two models

  11. A 3D active-passive numerical skeletal muscle model incorporating initial tissue strains. Validation with experimental results on rat tibialis anterior muscle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grasa, J; Ramírez, A; Osta, R; Muñoz, M J; Soteras, F; Calvo, B

    2011-10-01

    This paper presents a three-dimensional finite element model of skeletal muscle and its validation incorporating inital tissue strains. A constitutive relation was determined by using a convex free strain energy function (SEF) where active and passive response contributions were obtained fitting experimental data from the rat tibialis anterior (TA) muscle. The passive and active finite strains response was modelled within the framework of continuum mechanics by a quasi-incompressible transversely isotropic material formulation. Magnetic resonance images (MRI) were obtained to reconstruct the external geometry of the TA. This geometry includes initial strains also taken into account in the numerical model. The numerical results show excellent agreement with the experimental results when comparing reaction force-extension curves both in passive and active tests. The proposed constitutive model for the muscle is implemented in a subroutine in the commercial finite element software package ABAQUS.

  12. Results from a new mathematical model of gastrointestinal transit that incorporates age and gender-dependent physiological parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stubbs, J.B.

    1992-01-01

    Recently published data on effects of age and gender-dependent GI physiology and motility have been used to develop a new mathematical model describing the transit and adsorption of substances through the GI tract. This mathematical description of GI tract kinetics utilises more physiologically accurate transit processes than the ICRP Report 30 GI model. The model uses a combination of zero and first-order kinetics to describe motility. Some of the physiological parameters that the new model uses are gender, age, phase of the menstrual cycle, meal composition and gastric phase (solid versus liquid). A computer algorithm based on this model has been derived and results for young males are compared to those of the ICRP 30 model. Comparison of gastrointestinal residence times for 99 Tc m and 111 In labelled compounds, as a function of gender and age, are also presented. (author)

  13. Modelling of Spring Constant and Pull-down Voltage of Non-uniform RF MEMS Cantilever Incorporating Stress Gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimul Chandra SAHA

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available We have presented a model for spring constant and pull-down voltage of a non-uniform radio frequency microelectromechanical systems (RF MEMS cantilever that works on electrostatic actuation. The residual stress gradient in the beam material that may arise during the fabrication process is also considered in the model. Using basic force deflection calculation of the suspended beam, a stand-alone model for the spring constant and pull-down voltage of the non-uniform cantilever is developed. To compare the model, simulation is performed using standard Finite Element Method (FEM analysis tolls from CoventorWare. The model matches very well with the FEM simulation results. The model will offer an efficient means of design, analysis, and optimization of RF MEMS cantilever switches.

  14. Evaluation of the Doraiswamy-Thompson winter wheat crop calendar model incorporating a modified spring restart sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, T. W.; Ravet, F. W.; Smika, D. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    The Robertson phenology was used to provide growth stage information to a wheat stress indicator mode. A stress indicator model demands two acurate predictions from a crop calendar: date of spring growth initiation; and crop calendar stage at growth initiation. Several approaches for restarting the Robertson phenology model at spring growth initiation were studied. Although best results were obtained with a solar thermal unit method, an alternate approach which indicates soil temperature as the controlling parameter for spring growth initiation was selected and tested. The modified model (Doraiswamy-Thompson) is compared to LACIE-Robertson model predictions.

  15. Incorporation of CT-based measurements of trunk anatomy into subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the spine influences vertebral loading predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, Alexander G; Mokhtarzadeh, Hossein; Allaire, Brett T; Velie, Kelsey R; De Paolis Kaluza, M Clara; Anderson, Dennis E; Bouxsein, Mary L

    2017-10-01

    We created subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the thoracolumbar spine by incorporating spine curvature and muscle morphology measurements from computed tomography (CT) scans to determine the degree to which vertebral compressive and shear loading estimates are sensitive to variations in trunk anatomy. We measured spine curvature and trunk muscle morphology using spine CT scans of 125 men, and then created four different thoracolumbar spine models for each person: (i) height and weight adjusted (Ht/Wt models); (ii) height, weight, and spine curvature adjusted (+C models); (iii) height, weight, and muscle morphology adjusted (+M models); and (iv) height, weight, spine curvature, and muscle morphology adjusted (+CM models). We determined vertebral compressive and shear loading at three regions of the spine (T8, T12, and L3) for four different activities. Vertebral compressive loads predicted by the subject-specific CT-based musculoskeletal models were between 54% lower to 45% higher from those estimated using musculoskeletal models adjusted only for subject height and weight. The impact of subject-specific information on vertebral loading estimates varied with the activity and spinal region. Vertebral loading estimates were more sensitive to incorporation of subject-specific spinal curvature than subject-specific muscle morphology. Our results indicate that individual variations in spine curvature and trunk muscle morphology can have a major impact on estimated vertebral compressive and shear loads, and thus should be accounted for when estimating subject-specific vertebral loading. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 35:2164-2173, 2017. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Analysis of ambulatory blood pressure monitor data using a hierarchical model incorporating restricted cubic splines and heterogeneous within-subject variances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, P C; Abrams, K R; Jones, D R; Halligan, A W; Shennan, A

    2001-12-30

    Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are associated with significant maternal and foetal morbidity. Measurement of blood pressure remains the standard way of identifying individuals at risk. There is growing interest in the use of ambulatory blood pressure monitors (ABPM), which can record an individual's blood pressure many times over a 24-hour period. From a clinical perspective interest lies in the shape of the blood pressure profile over a 24-hour period and any differences in the profile between groups. We propose a two-level hierarchical linear model incorporating all ABPM data into a single model. We contrast a classical approach with a Bayesian approach using the results of a study of 206 pregnant women who were asked to wear an ABPM for 24 hours after referral to an obstetric day unit with high blood pressure. As the main interest lies in the shape of the profile, we use restricted cubic splines to model the mean profiles. The use of restricted cubic splines provides a flexible way to model the mean profiles and to make comparisons between groups. From examining the data and the fit of the model it is apparent that there were heterogeneous within-subject variances in that some women tend to have more variable blood pressure than others. Within the Bayesian framework it is relatively easy to incorporate a random effect to model the between-subject variation in the within-subject variances. Although there is substantial heterogeneity in the within-subject variances, allowing for this in the model has surprisingly little impact on the estimates of the mean profiles or their confidence/credible intervals. We thus demonstrate a powerful method for analysis of ABPM data and also demonstrate how heterogeneous within-subject variances can be modelled from a Bayesian perspective. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. The Effect of Climate Change on Wetlands and Waterfowl in Western Canada: Incorporating Cropping Decisions into a Bioeconomic Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Whitey, P.; Kooten, van G.C.

    2011-01-01

    We extend an earlier bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention in the Prairie Pothole Region of Western Canada to include cropping decisions. Instead of a single state equation, the model has two state equations representing the population dynamics of ducks and the amount of

  18. Incorporation of Reaction Kinetics into a Multiphase, Hydrodynamic Model of a Fischer Tropsch Slurry Bubble Column Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donna Guillen, PhD; Anastasia Gribik; Daniel Ginosar, PhD; Steven P. Antal, PhD

    2008-11-01

    This paper describes the development of a computational multiphase fluid dynamics (CMFD) model of the Fischer Tropsch (FT) process in a Slurry Bubble Column Reactor (SBCR). The CMFD model is fundamentally based which allows it to be applied to different industrial processes and reactor geometries. The NPHASE CMFD solver [1] is used as the robust computational platform. Results from the CMFD model include gas distribution, species concentration profiles, and local temperatures within the SBCR. This type of model can provide valuable information for process design, operations and troubleshooting of FT plants. An ensemble-averaged, turbulent, multi-fluid solution algorithm for the multiphase, reacting flow with heat transfer was employed. Mechanistic models applicable to churn turbulent flow have been developed to provide a fundamentally based closure set for the equations. In this four-field model formulation, two of the fields are used to track the gas phase (i.e., small spherical and large slug/cap bubbles), and the other two fields are used for the liquid and catalyst particles. Reaction kinetics for a cobalt catalyst is based upon values reported in the published literature. An initial, reaction kinetics model has been developed and exercised to demonstrate viability of the overall solution scheme. The model will continue to be developed with improved physics added in stages.

  19. The Effect of Climate Change on Wetlands and Waterfowl in Western Canada: Incorporating Cropping Decisions into a Bioeconomic Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Withey, P.; Kooten, van G.C.

    2013-01-01

    We extend an earlier bioeconomic model of optimal duck harvest and wetland retention in the Prairie Pothole Region of Western Canada to include cropping decisions. Instead of a single state equation, the model has two state equations representing the population dynamics of ducks and the amount of

  20. Mathematical model of uptake and metabolism of arsenic(III) in human hepatocytes - Incorporation of cellular antioxidant response and threshold-dependent behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamatelos, Spyros K; Brinkerhoff, Christopher J; Isukapalli, Sastry S; Georgopoulos, Panos G

    2011-01-25

    Arsenic is an environmental pollutant, potent human toxicant, and oxidative stress agent with a multiplicity of health effects associated with both acute and chronic exposures. A semi-mechanistic cellular-level toxicokinetic (TK) model was developed in order to describe the uptake, biotransformation and clearance of arsenical species in human hepatocytes. Notable features of this model are the incorporation of arsenic-glutathione complex formation and a "switch-like" formulation to describe the antioxidant response of hepatocytes to arsenic exposure. The cellular-level TK model applies mass action kinetics in order to predict the concentrations of trivalent and pentavalent arsenicals in hepatocytes. The model simulates uptake of arsenite (iAsIII) via aquaporin isozymes 9 (AQP9s), glutathione (GSH) conjugation, methylation by arsenic methyltransferase (AS3MT), efflux through multidrug resistant proteins (MRPs) and the induced antioxidant response via thioredoxin reductase (TR) activity. The model was parameterized by optimization of model estimates for arsenite (iAsIII), monomethylated (MMA) and dimethylated (DMA) arsenicals concentrations with time-course experimental data in human hepatocytes for a time span of 48 hours, and dose-response data at 24 hours for a range of arsenite concentrations from 0.1 to 10 μM. Global sensitivity analysis of the model showed that at low doses the transport parameters had a dominant role, whereas at higher doses the biotransformation parameters were the most significant. A parametric comparison of the TK model with an analogous model developed for rat hepatocytes from the literature demonstrated that the biotransformation of arsenite (e.g. GSH conjugation) has a large role in explaining the variation in methylation between rats and humans. The cellular-level TK model captures the temporal modes of arsenical accumulation in human hepatocytes. It highlighted the key biological processes that influence arsenic metabolism by

  1. A ternary phase-field model incorporating commercial CALPHAD software and its application to precipitation in superalloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen, Y.H.; Lill, J.V.; Chen, S.L.; Simmons, J.P.

    2010-01-01

    A ternary phase-field model was developed that is linked directly to commercial CALPHAD software to provide quantitative thermodynamic driving forces. A recently available diffusion mobility database for ordered phases is also implemented to give a better description of the diffusion behavior in alloys. Because the targeted application of this model is the study of precipitation in Ni-based superalloys, a Ni-Al-Cr model alloy was constructed. A detailed description of this model is given in the paper. We have considered the misfit effects of the partitioning of the two solute elements. Transformation rules of the dual representation of the γ+γ ' microstructure by CALPHAD and by the phase field are established and the link with commercial CALPHAD software is described. Proof-of-concept tests were performed to evaluate the model and the results demonstrate that the model can qualitatively reproduce observed γ ' precipitation behavior. Uphill diffusion of Al is observed in a few diffusion couples, showing the significant influence of Cr on the chemical potential of Al. Possible applications of this model are discussed.

  2. Incorporating prey refuge in a prey-predator model with a Holling type I functional response: random dynamics and population outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkana, Amalia; Zachilas, Loukas

    2013-09-01

    A prey-predator discrete-time model with a Holling type I functional response is investigated by incorporating a prey refuge. It is shown that a refuge does not always stabilize prey-predator interactions. A prey refuge in some cases produces even more chaotic, random-like dynamics than without a refuge and prey population outbreaks appear. Stability analysis was performed in order to investigate the local stability of fixed points as well as the several local bifurcations they undergo. Numerical simulations such as parametric basins of attraction, bifurcation diagrams, phase plots and largest Lyapunov exponent diagrams are executed in order to illustrate the complex dynamical behavior of the system.

  3. Active facility management strategy for containment of ILW using risk-based service life modelling of reinforced concrete to incorporate in-service cracking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knights, J.; Lavery, E.

    2006-01-01

    An Intermediate Level Waste Store facility for on-site waste storage is under construction to contain arisings from historic operations of the Hunterston 'A' NPS, Ayrshire. This paper updates previous a durability design strategy for reinforced concrete structures used in long-term storage (>100 years) of nuclear waste that incorporates design-limit flexural cracking. The approach, utilising probabilistic modelling of deterioration and reliability methods, gives greater flexibility to the decision-making process for management of concrete structures depending on the balance chosen between acceptable risk and maintenance philosophy. The results are compared with contemporary UK Codes concerning durability of reinforced concrete. (authors)

  4. A statistical model for measurement error that incorporates variation over time in the target measure, with application to nutritional epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freedman, Laurence S; Midthune, Douglas; Dodd, Kevin W; Carroll, Raymond J; Kipnis, Victor

    2015-11-30

    Most statistical methods that adjust analyses for measurement error assume that the target exposure T is a fixed quantity for each individual. However, in many applications, the value of T for an individual varies with time. We develop a model that accounts for such variation, describing the model within the framework of a meta-analysis of validation studies of dietary self-report instruments, where the reference instruments are biomarkers. We demonstrate that in this application, the estimates of the attenuation factor and correlation with true intake, key parameters quantifying the accuracy of the self-report instrument, are sometimes substantially modified under the time-varying exposure model compared with estimates obtained under a traditional fixed-exposure model. We conclude that accounting for the time element in measurement error problems is potentially important. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Diagnostic performance and costs of contingent screening models for trisomy 21 incorporating non-invasive prenatal testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Susannah; O'Leary, Peter; Dickinson, Jan E; Suthers, Graeme K

    2017-08-01

    Contingent screening for trisomy 21 using non-invasive prenatal testing has the potential to reduce invasive diagnostic testing and increase the detection of trisomy 21. To describe the diagnostic and economic performance of prenatal screening models for trisomy 21 that use non-invasive prenatal testing as a contingent screen across a range of combined first trimester screening risk cut-offs from a public health system perspective. Using a hypothetical cohort of 300 000 pregnancies, we modelled the outcomes of 25 contingent non-invasive prenatal testing screening models and compared these to conventional screening, offering women with a high-risk (1 > 300) combined first trimester screening result an invasive test. The 25 models used a range of risk cut-offs. High-risk women were offered invasive testing. Intermediate-risk women were offered non-invasive prenatal testing. We report the cost of each model, detection rate, costs per diagnosis, invasive tests per diagnosis and the number of fetal losses per diagnosis. The cost per prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 21 using the conventional model was $51 876 compared to the contingent models which varied from $49 309-66 686. The number of diagnoses and cost per diagnosis increased as the intermediate-risk threshold was lowered. Results were sensitive to trisomy 21 incidence, uptake of testing and cost of non-invasive prenatal testing. Contingent non-invasive prenatal testing models using more sensitive combined first trimester screening risk cut-offs than conventional screening improved the detection rate of trisomy 21, reduced procedure-related fetal loss and could potentially be provided at a lower cost per diagnosis than conventional screening. © 2017 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  6. Tritium in some typical ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The environmental significance of 3 H releases prompted an IAEA-sponsored coordinated research programme on various aspects. Data were collected to help health physicists, radioecologists, radiobiologists and environmentalists to predict the behaviour of 3 H in the major terrestrial ecosystems of the world. A common methodology was used to carry out a variety of projects in widely varying biomes, from tropical to arctic regions: in Belgium, on terrestrial food chains, with deposition of tritiated water (HTO) on crops and pasture, and incorporation of 3 H into proteins, nucleic acids, etc.; in Finland, plots of pasture and forest were labelled by HTO, and plant uptake were studied; in France, 3 H-content in water, in relation to different parts of vines, orange and olive trees in a Mediterranean climate; in the Federal Republic of Germany, contamination due to 3 H-releases; in India, mean 3 H-residence time in some tropical trees; in Mexico, 3 H-persistence as free-water 3 H and tissue-bound 3 H in crops; in the Netherlands, 3 H-metabolism in ruminants; in the Philippines, residence time in soil and in various commonly edible crops, and excretion time; in Thailand, half residence time in soil and local vegetation; in the USA, the effects of HTO vapour and liquid exposure in a wide range of climatic conditions, including organic fixation and concentration factors. An extensive bibliography is attached, and also annexes of laboratories and project titles; plant species, exposure and residence times; comparable lists for animals studied; scientific and common names of the species, and a glossary

  7. Accounting for tagging-to-harvest mortality in a Brownie tag-recovery model by incorporating radio-telemetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buderman, Frances E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Casalena, Mary Jo; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

    2014-01-01

    The Brownie tag-recovery model is useful for estimating harvest rates but assumes all tagged individuals survive to the first hunting season; otherwise, mortality between time of tagging and the hunting season will cause the Brownie estimator to be negatively biased. Alternatively, fitting animals with radio transmitters can be used to accurately estimate harvest rate but may be more costly. We developed a joint model to estimate harvest and annual survival rates that combines known-fate data from animals fitted with transmitters to estimate the probability of surviving the period from capture to the first hunting season, and data from reward-tagged animals in a Brownie tag-recovery model. We evaluated bias and precision of the joint estimator, and how to optimally allocate effort between animals fitted with radio transmitters and inexpensive ear tags or leg bands. Tagging-to-harvest survival rates from >20 individuals with radio transmitters combined with 50–100 reward tags resulted in an unbiased and precise estimator of harvest rates. In addition, the joint model can test whether transmitters affect an individual's probability of being harvested. We illustrate application of the model using data from wild turkey, Meleagris gallapavo,to estimate harvest rates, and data from white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, to evaluate whether the presence of a visible radio transmitter is related to the probability of a deer being harvested. The joint known-fate tag-recovery model eliminates the requirement to capture and mark animals immediately prior to the hunting season to obtain accurate and precise estimates of harvest rate. In addition, the joint model can assess whether marking animals with radio transmitters affects the individual's probability of being harvested, caused by hunter selectivity or changes in a marked animal's behavior.

  8. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael L Mann

    Full Text Available The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively. Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  9. Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

    2016-01-01

    The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

  10. Wind-Tunnel Tests of a 1/6-Scale Model of Republic XF-12 Vertical Tail Incorporating a De-Icing Air Duct

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLachlan, Robert; Miller, Sadie M.

    1945-01-01

    A 1/6-scale model of the Republic XF-12 vertical tail with stub fuselage, stub horizontal tail, and a de-icing air duct was tested in the Langley stability tunnel. The investigation consisted of a study of the effects of the duct, with and without air flow, on the aerodynamic characteristics of the model. The model tested was a revision of a model previously tested in the Langley stability tunnel. The revised model differed from the original model in that it incorporated a de-icing air duct, included a dorsal fin, and had a larger stub fuselage. A comparison of data obtained form tests of the original and revised models was made. The results of the investigation indicated that the air duct had very little effect on the aerodynamic characteristics of the model. A small change occurred in the variation of rudder hinge-moment coefficient with angle of attack but it is believed that this change can be corrected by a properly applied spring tab.

  11. Incorporating tissue anisotropy and heterogeneity in finite element models of trabecular bone altered predicted local stress distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Max A; Wallace, Joseph M; Allen, Matthew R; Siegmund, Thomas

    2018-04-01

    Trabecular bone is composed of organized mineralized collagen fibrils, which results in heterogeneous and anisotropic mechanical properties at the tissue level. Recently, biomechanical models computing stresses and strains in trabecular bone have indicated a significant effect of tissue heterogeneity on predicted stresses and strains. However, the effect of the tissue-level mechanical anisotropy on the trabecular bone biomechanical response is unknown. Here, a computational method was established to automatically impose physiologically relevant orientation inherent in trabecular bone tissue on a trabecular bone microscale finite element model. Spatially varying tissue-level anisotropic elastic properties were then applied according to the bone mineral density and the local tissue orientation. The model was used to test the hypothesis that anisotropy in both homogeneous and heterogeneous models alters the predicted distribution of stress invariants. Linear elastic finite element computations were performed on a 3 mm cube model isolated from a microcomputed tomography scan of human trabecular bone from the distal femur. Hydrostatic stress and von Mises equivalent stress were recorded at every element, and the distributions of these values were analyzed. Anisotropy reduced the range of hydrostatic stress in both tension and compression more strongly than the associated increase in von Mises equivalent stress. The effect of anisotropy was independent of the spatial redistribution high compressive stresses due to tissue elastic heterogeneity. Tissue anisotropy and heterogeneity are likely important mechanisms to protect bone from failure and should be included for stress analyses in trabecular bone.

  12. A two-dimensional continuum model of biofilm growth incorporating fluid flow and shear stress based detachment

    KAUST Repository

    Duddu, Ravindra

    2009-05-01

    We present a two-dimensional biofilm growth model in a continuum framework using an Eulerian description. A computational technique based on the eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) and the level set method is used to simulate the growth of the biofilm. The model considers fluid flow around the biofilm surface, the advection-diffusion and reaction of substrate, variable biomass volume fraction and erosion due to the interfacial shear stress at the biofilm-fluid interface. The key assumptions of the model and the governing equations of transport, biofilm kinetics and biofilm mechanics are presented. Our 2D biofilm growth results are in good agreement with those obtained by Picioreanu et al. (Biotechnol Bioeng 69(5):504-515, 2000). Detachment due to erosion is modeled using two continuous speed functions based on: (a) interfacial shear stress and (b) biofilm height. A relation between the two detachment models in the case of a 1D biofilm is established and simulated biofilm results with detachment in 2D are presented. The stress in the biofilm due to fluid flow is evaluated and higher stresses are observed close to the substratum where the biofilm is attached. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Development, calibration and performance of an HIV transmission model incorporating natural history and behavioral patterns: application in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Alethea W; Abuelezam, Nadia N; Rhode, Erin R; Hou, Taige; Walensky, Rochelle P; Pei, Pamela P; Becker, Jessica E; DiLorenzo, Madeline A; Losina, Elena; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Lipsitch, Marc; Seage, George R

    2014-01-01

    Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International Model, which simulates the natural history and treatment of HIV. In this new model, the CEPAC Dynamic Model (CDM), the probability of HIV transmission per sexual encounter between short-term, long-term and commercial sex worker partners depends upon the HIV RNA and disease stage of the infected partner, condom use, and the circumcision status of the uninfected male partner. We included behavioral, demographic and biological values in the CDM and calibrated to HIV prevalence in South Africa pre-antiretroviral therapy. Using a multi-step fitting procedure based on Bayesian melding methodology, we performed 264,225 simulations of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and identified 3,750 parameter sets that created an epidemic and had behavioral characteristics representative of a South African population pre-ART. Of these parameter sets, 564 contributed 90% of the likelihood weight to the fit, and closely reproduced the UNAIDS HIV prevalence curve in South Africa from 1990-2002. The calibration was sensitive to changes in the rate of formation of short-duration partnerships and to the partnership acquisition rate among high-risk individuals, both of which impacted concurrency. Runs that closely fit to historical HIV prevalence reflect diverse ranges for individual parameter values and predict a wide range of possible steady-state prevalence in the absence of interventions, illustrating the value of the calibration procedure and utility of the model for evaluating interventions. This model, which includes detailed behavioral patterns and HIV natural history, closely fits HIV prevalence estimates.

  14. Incorporating interspecific competition into species-distribution mapping by upward scaling of small-scale model projections to the landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baah-Acheamfour, Mark; Bourque, Charles P-A; Meng, Fan-Rui; Swift, D Edwin

    2017-01-01

    There are a number of overarching questions and debate in the scientific community concerning the importance of biotic interactions in species distribution models at large spatial scales. In this paper, we present a framework for revising the potential distribution of tree species native to the Western Ecoregion of Nova Scotia, Canada, by integrating the long-term effects of interspecific competition into an existing abiotic-factor-based definition of potential species distribution (PSD). The PSD model is developed by combining spatially explicit data of individualistic species' response to normalized incident photosynthetically active radiation, soil water content, and growing degree days. A revised PSD model adds biomass output simulated over a 100-year timeframe with a robust forest gap model and scaled up to the landscape using a forestland classification technique. To demonstrate the method, we applied the calculation to the natural range of 16 target tree species as found in 1,240 provincial forest-inventory plots. The revised PSD model, with the long-term effects of interspecific competition accounted for, predicted that eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), American beech (Fagus grandifolia), white birch (Betula papyrifera), red oak (Quercus rubra), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) would experience a significant decline in their original distribution compared with balsam fir (Abies balsamea), black spruce (Picea mariana), red spruce (Picea rubens), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis). True model accuracy improved from 64.2% with original PSD evaluations to 81.7% with revised PSD. Kappa statistics slightly increased from 0.26 (fair) to 0.41 (moderate) for original and revised PSDs, respectively.

  15. Incorporating interspecific competition into species-distribution mapping by upward scaling of small-scale model projections to the landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Baah-Acheamfour

    Full Text Available There are a number of overarching questions and debate in the scientific community concerning the importance of biotic interactions in species distribution models at large spatial scales. In this paper, we present a framework for revising the potential distribution of tree species native to the Western Ecoregion of Nova Scotia, Canada, by integrating the long-term effects of interspecific competition into an existing abiotic-factor-based definition of potential species distribution (PSD. The PSD model is developed by combining spatially explicit data of individualistic species' response to normalized incident photosynthetically active radiation, soil water content, and growing degree days. A revised PSD model adds biomass output simulated over a 100-year timeframe with a robust forest gap model and scaled up to the landscape using a forestland classification technique. To demonstrate the method, we applied the calculation to the natural range of 16 target tree species as found in 1,240 provincial forest-inventory plots. The revised PSD model, with the long-term effects of interspecific competition accounted for, predicted that eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis, American beech (Fagus grandifolia, white birch (Betula papyrifera, red oak (Quercus rubra, sugar maple (Acer saccharum, and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides would experience a significant decline in their original distribution compared with balsam fir (Abies balsamea, black spruce (Picea mariana, red spruce (Picea rubens, red maple (Acer rubrum L., and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis. True model accuracy improved from 64.2% with original PSD evaluations to 81.7% with revised PSD. Kappa statistics slightly increased from 0.26 (fair to 0.41 (moderate for original and revised PSDs, respectively.

  16. The Brain’s sense of walking: a study on the intertwine between locomotor imagery and internal locomotor models in healthy adults, typically developing children and children with cerebral palsy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eIosa

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Motor imagery and internal motor models have been deeply investigated in literature. It is well known that the development of motor imagery occurs during adolescence and it is limited in people affected by cerebral palsy. However, the roles of motor imagery and internal models in locomotion as well as their intertwine received poor attention. In this study we compared the performances of healthy adults (n=8, 28.1±5.1 years old, children with typical development (n=8, 8.1±3.8 years old and children with cerebral palsy (n=12, 7.5±2.9 years old, measured by an optoelectronic system and a trunk-mounted wireless inertial magnetic unit, during three different tasks. Subjects were asked to achieve a target located at 2 or 3m in front of them simulating their walking by stepping in place, or actually walking blindfolded or normally walking with open eyes. Adults performed a not significantly different number of steps (p=0.761 spending not significantly different time between tasks (p=0.156. Children with typical development showed task-dependent differences both in terms of number of steps (p=0.046 and movement time (p=0.002. However, their performance in simulated and blindfolded walking were strictly correlated (R=0.871 for steps, R=0.673 for time. Further, their error in blindfolded walking was in mean only of -2.2% of distance. Also children with cerebral palsy showed significant differences in number of steps (p=0.022 and time (p<0.001, but neither their number of steps nor their movement time recorded during simulated walking were found correlated with those of blindfolded and normal walking. Adults used a unique strategy among different tasks. Children with typical development seemed to be less reliable on their motor predictions, using a task-dependent strategy probably more reliable on sensorial feedback. Children with cerebral palsy showed less efficient performances, especially in simulated walking, suggesting an altered locomotor imagery.

  17. Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer A Curtis

    Full Text Available We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.

  18. Data Analysis Protocol for the Development and Evaluation of Population Pharmacokinetic Models for Incorporation Into the Web-Accessible Population Pharmacokinetic Service - Hemophilia (WAPPS-Hemo).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEneny-King, Alanna; Foster, Gary; Iorio, Alfonso; Edginton, Andrea N

    2016-12-07

    Hemophilia is an inherited bleeding disorder caused by a deficiency in a specific clotting factor. This results in spontaneous bleeding episodes and eventual arthropathy. The mainstay of hemophilia treatment is prophylactic replacement of the missing factor, but an optimal regimen remains to be determined. Rather, individualized prophylaxis has been suggested to improve both patient safety and resource utilization. However, uptake of this approach has been hampered by the demanding sampling schedules and complex calculations required to obtain individual estimates of pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. The use of population pharmacokinetics (PopPK) can alleviate this burden by reducing the number of plasma samples required for accurate estimation, but few tools incorporating this approach are readily available to clinicians. The Web-accessible Population Pharmacokinetic Service - Hemophilia (WAPPS-Hemo) project aims to bridge this gap by providing a Web-accessible service for the reliable estimation of individual PK parameters from only a few patient samples. This service is predicated on the development of validated brand-specific PopPK models. We describe the data analysis plan for the development and evaluation of each PopPK model to be incorporated into the WAPPS-Hemo platform. The data sources and structure of the dataset are discussed first, followed by the procedures for handling both data below limit of quantification (BLQ) and absence of such BLQ data. Next, we outline the strategies for building the appropriate structural and covariate models, including the possible need for a process algorithm when PK behavior varies between subjects or significant covariates are not provided. Prior to use in a prospective manner, the models will undergo extensive evaluation using a variety of techniques such as diagnostic plots, bootstrap analysis and cross-validation. Finally, we describe the incorporation of a validated PopPK model into the Bayesian post hoc model to

  19. A three-state model for energy trapping and chlorophyll fluorescence in photosystem II Incorporating radical pair recombination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vredenberg, W.J.

    2000-01-01

    The multiphasic fluorescence induction kinetics upon a high intensity light pulse have been measured and analyzed at a time resolution of 10 ?s in intact leaves of Peperomia metallica and Chenopodium album and in chloroplasts isolated from the latter. Current theories and models on the relation

  20. Self-consistent field modeling of non-ionic surfactants at the silica-water interface: Incorporating molecular detail

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmus, B.R.; Leermakers, F.A.M.; Cohen Stuart, M.A.

    2008-01-01

    We have constructed a model to predict the properties of non-ionic (alkyl-ethylene oxide) (C(n)E(m)) surfactants, both in aqueous solutions and near a silica surface, based upon the self-consistent field theory using the Scheutjens-Fleer discretisation scheme. The system has the pH and the ionic

  1. Incorporating field wind data into FIRETEC simulations of the International Crown Fire Modeling Experiment (ICFME): preliminary lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodman Linn; Kerry Anderson; Judith Winterkamp; Alyssa Broos; Michael Wotton; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Francois Pimont; Carleton Edminster

    2012-01-01

    Field experiments are one way to develop or validate wildland fire-behavior models. It is important to consider the implications of assumptions relating to the locality of measurements with respect to the fire, the temporal frequency of the measured data, and the changes to local winds that might be caused by the experimental configuration. Twenty FIRETEC simulations...

  2. Incorporating Modeling and Simulations in Undergraduate Biophysical Chemistry Course to Promote Understanding of Structure-Dynamics-Function Relationships in Proteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hati, Sanchita; Bhattacharyya, Sudeep

    2016-01-01

    A project-based biophysical chemistry laboratory course, which is offered to the biochemistry and molecular biology majors in their senior year, is described. In this course, the classroom study of the structure-function of biomolecules is integrated with the discovery-guided laboratory study of these molecules using computer modeling and…

  3. Learning-Goals-Driven Design Model: Developing Curriculum Materials that Align with National Standards and Incorporate Project-Based Pedagogy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajcik, Joseph; McNeill, Katherine L.; Reiser, Brian J.

    2008-01-01

    Reform efforts in science education emphasize the importance of rigorous treatment of science standards and use of innovative pedagogical approaches to make science more meaningful and successful. In this paper, we present a learning-goals-driven design model for developing curriculum materials, which combines national standards and a…

  4. 75 FR 33553 - Special Conditions: AeroMech, Incorporated; Hawker Beechcraft Corporation, Model B200 and Other...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-14

    ... B200 and Other Aircraft Listed in Table 1, Approved Model List (AML); Installation of MD835 Lithium Ion... Instruments MD835 Lithium Ion (Li-ion) battery. The applicable airworthiness regulations do not contain... rulemaking activities on the battery requirements for business jet and commuter category airplanes. These...

  5. A model of the guinea-pig ventricular cardiac myocyte incorporating a transverse–axial tubular system

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pásek, Michal; Šimurda, J.; Orchard, C.; Christé, G.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 96, 1-3 (2008), s. 258-280 ISSN 0079-6107 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : guinea pig * cardiac cell * transverse-axial tubular system * quantitative model Subject RIV: BO - Biophysics Impact factor: 6.388, year: 2008

  6. Analytical modelling of Halbach linear generator incorporating pole shifting and piece-wise spring for ocean wave energy harvesting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Yimin; Lin, Kejian; Zu, Jean W.

    2018-05-01

    Halbach permanent magnet (PM) array has attracted tremendous research attention in the development of electromagnetic generators for its unique properties. This paper has proposed a generalized analytical model for linear generators. The slotted stator pole-shifting and implementation of Halbach array have been combined for the first time. Initially, the magnetization components of the Halbach array have been determined using Fourier decomposition. Then, based on the magnetic scalar potential method, the magnetic field distribution has been derived employing specially treated boundary conditions. FEM analysis has been conducted to verify the analytical model. A slotted linear PM generator with Halbach PM has been constructed to validate the model and further improved using piece-wise springs to trigger full range reciprocating motion. A dynamic model has been developed to characterize the dynamic behavior of the slider. This analytical method provides an effective tool in development and optimization of Halbach PM generator. The experimental results indicate that piece-wise springs can be employed to improve generator performance under low excitation frequency.

  7. Incorporating time and income constraints in dynamic agent-based models of activity generation and time use : Approach and illustration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arentze, Theo; Ettema, D.F.; Timmermans, Harry

    Existing theories and models in economics and transportation treat households’ decisions regarding allocation of time and income to activities as a resource-allocation optimization problem. This stands in contrast with the dynamic nature of day-by-day activity-travel choices. Therefore, in the

  8. Incorporating Cancer Stem Cells in Radiation Therapy Treatment Response Modeling and the Implication in Glioblastoma Multiforme Treatment Resistance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Victoria Y.; Nguyen, Dan; Pajonk, Frank; Kupelian, Patrick; Kaprealian, Tania; Selch, Michael; Low, Daniel A.; Sheng, Ke, E-mail: ksheng@mednet.ucla.edu

    2015-03-15

    Purpose: To perform a preliminary exploration with a simplistic mathematical cancer stem cell (CSC) interaction model to determine whether the tumor-intrinsic heterogeneity and dynamic equilibrium between CSCs and differentiated cancer cells (DCCs) can better explain radiation therapy treatment response with a dual-compartment linear-quadratic (DLQ) model. Methods and Materials: The radiosensitivity parameters of CSCs and DCCs for cancer cell lines including glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), non–small cell lung cancer, melanoma, osteosarcoma, and prostate, cervical, and breast cancer were determined by performing robust least-square fitting using the DLQ model on published clonogenic survival data. Fitting performance was compared with the single-compartment LQ (SLQ) and universal survival curve models. The fitting results were then used in an ordinary differential equation describing the kinetics of DCCs and CSCs in response to 2- to 14.3-Gy fractionated treatments. The total dose to achieve tumor control and the fraction size that achieved the least normal biological equivalent dose were calculated. Results: Smaller cell survival fitting errors were observed using DLQ, with the exception of melanoma, which had a low α/β = 0.16 in SLQ. Ordinary differential equation simulation indicated lower normal tissue biological equivalent dose to achieve the same tumor control with a hypofractionated approach for 4 cell lines for the DLQ model, in contrast to SLQ, which favored 2 Gy per fraction for all cells except melanoma. The DLQ model indicated greater tumor radioresistance than SLQ, but the radioresistance was overcome by hypofractionation, other than the GBM cells, which responded poorly to all fractionations. Conclusion: The distinct radiosensitivity and dynamics between CSCs and DCCs in radiation therapy response could perhaps be one possible explanation for the heterogeneous intertumor response to hypofractionation and in some cases superior outcome from

  9. Radiation fields, dosimetry, biokinetics and biophysical models for cancer induction by ionising radiation 1996-1999. Biokinetics and dosimetry of incorporated radionuclides. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roth, P.; Aubineau-Laniece, I.; Bailly-Despiney, I.

    2000-01-01

    The final report 'Biokinetics and Dosimetry of Incorporated Radionuclides' presented here is one part of the 5 individual reports. The work to be carried out within this project is structured into four Work Packages: Workpackage 1 concentrates on ingested radionuclides, considering doses to the GI tract and radionuclide absorption. A major objective is the development of a new dosimetric model of the GI tract, taking account of most recent data on gut transit and dose to sensitive cells. Workpackage 2 seeks to improve and extend biokinetic and dosimetric models for systemic radionuclides. Existing models for adults and children will be extended to other elements and new models will be developed for the embryo and fetus. Workpackage 3 is to improve assessment of localised distribution of dose within tissues at the cellular level for specific examples of Auger emitters and alpha emitting isotopes, in relation to observed effects. The work will include experimental studies of dose/effect relationship and the development of localisation methods. Workpackage 4 concerns the development of computer codes for the new dosimetric models, quality assurance of the models and the calculation of dose coefficients. Formal sensitivity analysis will be used to identify critical areas of model development and to investigate the effects of variability and incertainty in biokinetic parameters. (orig.)

  10. Incorporating spatial dose metrics in machine learning-based normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models of severe acute dysphagia resulting from head and neck radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Jamie; Wong, Kee; Gay, Hiram; Welsh, Liam; Jones, Ann-Britt; Schick, Ulricke; Oh, Jung Hun; Apte, Aditya; Newbold, Kate; Bhide, Shreerang; Harrington, Kevin; Deasy, Joseph; Nutting, Christopher; Gulliford, Sarah

    2018-01-01

    Severe acute dysphagia commonly results from head and neck radiotherapy (RT). A model enabling prediction of severity of acute dysphagia for individual patients could guide clinical decision-making. Statistical associations between RT dose distributions and dysphagia could inform RT planning protocols aiming to reduce the incidence of severe dysphagia. We aimed to establish such a model and associations incorporating spatial dose metrics. Models of severe acute dysphagia were developed using pharyngeal mucosa (PM) RT dose (dose-volume and spatial dose metrics) and clinical data. Penalized logistic regression (PLR), support vector classification and random forest classification (RFC) models were generated and internally (173 patients) and externally (90 patients) validated. These were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to assess performance. Associations between treatment features and dysphagia were explored using RFC models. The PLR model using dose-volume metrics (PLR standard ) performed as well as the more complex models and had very good discrimination (AUC = 0.82) on external validation. The features with the highest RFC importance values were the volume, length and circumference of PM receiving 1 Gy/fraction and higher. The volumes of PM receiving 1 Gy/fraction or higher should be minimized to reduce the incidence of severe acute dysphagia.

  11. Incorporating spatial dose metrics in machine learning-based normal tissue complication probability (NTCP models of severe acute dysphagia resulting from head and neck radiotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie Dean

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe acute dysphagia commonly results from head and neck radiotherapy (RT. A model enabling prediction of severity of acute dysphagia for individual patients could guide clinical decision-making. Statistical associations between RT dose distributions and dysphagia could inform RT planning protocols aiming to reduce the incidence of severe dysphagia. We aimed to establish such a model and associations incorporating spatial dose metrics. Models of severe acute dysphagia were developed using pharyngeal mucosa (PM RT dose (dose-volume and spatial dose metrics and clinical data. Penalized logistic regression (PLR, support vector classification and random forest classification (RFC models were generated and internally (173 patients and externally (90 patients validated. These were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC to assess performance. Associations between treatment features and dysphagia were explored using RFC models. The PLR model using dose-volume metrics (PLRstandard performed as well as the more complex models and had very good discrimination (AUC = 0.82 on external validation. The features with the highest RFC importance values were the volume, length and circumference of PM receiving 1 Gy/fraction and higher. The volumes of PM receiving 1 Gy/fraction or higher should be minimized to reduce the incidence of severe acute dysphagia.

  12. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation modelORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...

  13. Incorporating Experience Curves in Appliance Standards Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garbesi, Karina; Chan, Peter; Greenblatt, Jeffery; Kantner, Colleen; Lekov, Alex; Meyers, Stephen; Rosenquist, Gregory; Buskirk, Robert Van; Yang, Hung-Chia; Desroches, Louis-Benoit

    2011-10-31

    The technical analyses in support of U.S. energy conservation standards for residential appliances and commercial equipment have typically assumed that manufacturing costs and retail prices remain constant during the projected 30-year analysis period. There is, however, considerable evidence that this assumption does not reflect real market prices. Costs and prices generally fall in relation to cumulative production, a phenomenon known as experience and modeled by a fairly robust empirical experience curve. Using price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and shipment data obtained as part of the standards analysis process, we present U.S. experience curves for room air conditioners, clothes dryers, central air conditioners, furnaces, and refrigerators and freezers. These allow us to develop more representative appliance price projections than the assumption-based approach of constant prices. These experience curves were incorporated into recent energy conservation standards for these products. The impact on the national modeling can be significant, often increasing the net present value of potential standard levels in the analysis. In some cases a previously cost-negative potential standard level demonstrates a benefit when incorporating experience. These results imply that past energy conservation standards analyses may have undervalued the economic benefits of potential standard levels.

  14. Development of an atmospheric diffusion numerical model for a nuclear facility. Numerical calculation method incorporating building effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sada, Koichi; Michioka, Takenobu; Ichikawa, Yoichi

    2002-01-01

    Because effluent gas is sometimes released from low positions, viz., near the ground surface and around buildings, the effects caused by buildings within the site area are not negligible for gas diffusion predictions. For these reasons, the effects caused by buildings for gas diffusion are considered under the terrain following calculation coordinate system in this report. Numerical calculation meshes on the ground surface are treated as the building with the adaptation of wall function techniques of turbulent quantities in the flow calculations using a turbulence closure model. The reflection conditions of released particles on building surfaces are taken into consideration in the diffusion calculation using the Lagrangian particle model. Obtained flow and diffusion calculation results are compared with those of wind tunnel experiments around the building. It was apparent that features observed in a wind tunnel, viz., the formation of cavity regions behind the building and the gas diffusion to the ground surface behind the building, are also obtained by numerical calculation. (author)

  15. Incorporating topography in a cellular automata model to simulate residents evacuation in a mountain area in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Liu, Mao; Meng, Bo

    2013-02-01

    In China, both the mountainous areas and the number of people who live in mountain areas occupy a significant proportion. When production accidents or natural disasters happen, the residents in mountain areas should be evacuated and the evacuation is of obvious importance to public safety. But it is a pity that there are few studies on safety evacuation in rough terrain. The particularity of the complex terrain in mountain areas, however, makes it difficult to study pedestrian evacuation. In this paper, a three-dimensional surface cellular automata model is proposed to numerically simulate the real time dynamic evacuation of residents. The model takes into account topographic characteristics (the slope gradient) of the environment and the biomechanics characteristics (weight and leg extensor power) of the residents to calculate the walking speed. This paper only focuses on the influence of topography and the physiological parameters are defined as constants according to a statistical report. Velocity varies with the topography. In order to simulate the behavior of a crowd with varying movement velocities, and a numerical algorithm is used to determine the time step of iteration. By doing so, a numerical simulation can be conducted in a 3D surface CA model. Moreover, considering residents evacuation around a gas well in a mountain area as a case, a visualization system for a three-dimensional simulation of pedestrian evacuation is developed. In the simulation process, population behaviors of congestion, queuing and collision avoidance can be observed. The simulation results are explained reasonably. Therefore, the model presented in this paper can realize a 3D dynamic simulation of pedestrian evacuation vividly in complex terrain and predict the evacuation procedure and evacuation time required, which can supply some valuable information for emergency management.

  16. Predicting 30-Day Readmissions in an Asian Population: Building a Predictive Model by Incorporating Markers of Hospitalization Severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, Lian Leng; Liu, Nan; Wang, Sijia; Thumboo, Julian; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Lee, Kheng Hock

    2016-01-01

    To reduce readmissions, it may be cost-effective to consider risk stratification, with targeting intervention programs to patients at high risk of readmissions. In this study, we aimed to derive and validate a prediction model including several novel markers of hospitalization severity, and compare the model with the LACE index (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Charlson comorbidity index, Emergency department visits in past 6 months), an established risk stratification tool. This was a retrospective cohort study of all patients ≥ 21 years of age, who were admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore from January 1, 2013 through May 31, 2015. Data were extracted from the hospital's electronic health records. The outcome was defined as unplanned readmissions within 30 days of discharge from the index hospitalization. Candidate predictive variables were broadly grouped into five categories: Patient demographics, social determinants of health, past healthcare utilization, medical comorbidities, and markers of hospitalization severity. Multivariable logistic regression was used to predict the outcome, and receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to compare our model with the LACE index. 74,102 cases were enrolled for analysis. Of these, 11,492 patient cases (15.5%) were readmitted within 30 days of discharge. A total of fifteen predictive variables were strongly associated with the risk of 30-day readmissions, including number of emergency department visits in the past 6 months, Charlson Comorbidity Index, markers of hospitalization severity such as 'requiring inpatient dialysis during index admission, and 'treatment with intravenous furosemide 40 milligrams or more' during index admission. Our predictive model outperformed the LACE index by achieving larger area under the curve values: 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.79) versus 0.70 (95% CI: 0.69-0.71). Several factors are important for the risk of 30-day readmissions, including proxy

  17. Predicting 30-Day Readmissions in an Asian Population: Building a Predictive Model by Incorporating Markers of Hospitalization Severity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lian Leng Low

    Full Text Available To reduce readmissions, it may be cost-effective to consider risk stratification, with targeting intervention programs to patients at high risk of readmissions. In this study, we aimed to derive and validate a prediction model including several novel markers of hospitalization severity, and compare the model with the LACE index (Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Charlson comorbidity index, Emergency department visits in past 6 months, an established risk stratification tool.This was a retrospective cohort study of all patients ≥ 21 years of age, who were admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore from January 1, 2013 through May 31, 2015. Data were extracted from the hospital's electronic health records. The outcome was defined as unplanned readmissions within 30 days of discharge from the index hospitalization. Candidate predictive variables were broadly grouped into five categories: Patient demographics, social determinants of health, past healthcare utilization, medical comorbidities, and markers of hospitalization severity. Multivariable logistic regression was used to predict the outcome, and receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to compare our model with the LACE index.74,102 cases were enrolled for analysis. Of these, 11,492 patient cases (15.5% were readmitted within 30 days of discharge. A total of fifteen predictive variables were strongly associated with the risk of 30-day readmissions, including number of emergency department visits in the past 6 months, Charlson Comorbidity Index, markers of hospitalization severity such as 'requiring inpatient dialysis during index admission, and 'treatment with intravenous furosemide 40 milligrams or more' during index admission. Our predictive model outperformed the LACE index by achieving larger area under the curve values: 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.79 versus 0.70 (95% CI: 0.69-0.71.Several factors are important for the risk of 30-day readmissions

  18. Implication of remotely sensed data to incorporate land cover effect into a linear reservoir-based rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid; Fard, Ahmad Fakheri; Niazi, Faegheh; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Goodrich, David C.; Kamran, Khalil Valizadeh

    2015-10-01

    This study investigates the effect of land use on the Geomorphological Cascade of Unequal linear Reservoirs (GCUR) model using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from remotely sensed data as a measure of land use. The proposed modeling has two important aspects: it considers the effects of both watershed geomorphology and land use/cover, and it requires only one parameter to be estimated through the use of observed rainfall-runoff data. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools are employed to determine the parameters associated with watershed geomorphology, and the Vegetation Index parameter is extracted from historical Landsat images. The modeling is applied via three formulations to a watershed located in Southeastern Arizona, which consists of two gaged sub-watersheds with different land uses. The results show that while all of the formulations generate forecasts of the basin outlet hydrographs with acceptable accuracy, only the two formulations that consider the effects of land cover (using NDVI) provide acceptable results at the outlets of the sub-watersheds.

  19. Genome-wide prediction models that incorporate de novo GWAS are a powerful new tool for tropical rice improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spindel, J E; Begum, H; Akdemir, D; Collard, B; Redoña, E; Jannink, J-L; McCouch, S

    2016-01-01

    To address the multiple challenges to food security posed by global climate change, population growth and rising incomes, plant breeders are developing new crop varieties that can enhance both agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. Current breeding practices, however, are unable to keep pace with demand. Genomic selection (GS) is a new technique that helps accelerate the rate of genetic gain in breeding by using whole-genome data to predict the breeding value of offspring. Here, we describe a new GS model that combines RR-BLUP with markers fit as fixed effects selected from the results of a genome-wide-association study (GWAS) on the RR-BLUP training data. We term this model GS + de novo GWAS. In a breeding population of tropical rice, GS + de novo GWAS outperformed six other models for a variety of traits and in multiple environments. On the basis of these results, we propose an extended, two-part breeding design that can be used to efficiently integrate novel variation into elite breeding populations, thus expanding genetic diversity and enhancing the potential for sustainable productivity gains. PMID:26860200

  20. Modelling of the interaction between chemical and mechanical behaviour of ion exchange resins incorporated into a cement-based matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Bescop P.

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a predictive model, based on experimental data, to determine the macroscopic mechanical behavior of a material made up of ion exchange resins solidified into a CEM III cement paste. Some observations have shown that in some cases, a significant macroscopic expansion of this composite material may be expected, due to internal pressures generated in the resin. To build the model, we made the choice to break down the problem in two scale’s studies. The first deals with the mechanical behavior of the different heterogeneities of the composite, i.e. the resin and the cement paste. The second upscales the information from the heterogeneities to the Representative Elementary Volume (REV of the composite. The heterogeneities effects are taken into account in the REV by applying a homogenization method derived from the Eshelby theory combined with an interaction coefficient drawn from the poroelasticity theory. At the first scale, from the second thermodynamic law, a formulation is developed to estimate the resin microscopic swelling. The model response is illustrated on a simple example showing the impact of the calculated internal pressure, on the macroscopic strain.

  1. 3D statistical shape models incorporating 3D random forest regression voting for robust CT liver segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norajitra, Tobias; Meinzer, Hans-Peter; Maier-Hein, Klaus H.

    2015-03-01

    During image segmentation, 3D Statistical Shape Models (SSM) usually conduct a limited search for target landmarks within one-dimensional search profiles perpendicular to the model surface. In addition, landmark appearance is modeled only locally based on linear profiles and weak learners, altogether leading to segmentation errors from landmark ambiguities and limited search coverage. We present a new method for 3D SSM segmentation based on 3D Random Forest Regression Voting. For each surface landmark, a Random Regression Forest is trained that learns a 3D spatial displacement function between the according reference landmark and a set of surrounding sample points, based on an infinite set of non-local randomized 3D Haar-like features. Landmark search is then conducted omni-directionally within 3D search spaces, where voxelwise forest predictions on landmark position contribute to a common voting map which reflects the overall position estimate. Segmentation experiments were conducted on a set of 45 CT volumes of the human liver, of which 40 images were randomly chosen for training and 5 for testing. Without parameter optimization, using a simple candidate selection and a single resolution approach, excellent results were achieved, while faster convergence and better concavity segmentation were observed, altogether underlining the potential of our approach in terms of increased robustness from distinct landmark detection and from better search coverage.

  2. Genome-wide prediction models that incorporate de novo GWAS are a powerful new tool for tropical rice improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spindel, J E; Begum, H; Akdemir, D; Collard, B; Redoña, E; Jannink, J-L; McCouch, S

    2016-04-01

    To address the multiple challenges to food security posed by global climate change, population growth and rising incomes, plant breeders are developing new crop varieties that can enhance both agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. Current breeding practices, however, are unable to keep pace with demand. Genomic selection (GS) is a new technique that helps accelerate the rate of genetic gain in breeding by using whole-genome data to predict the breeding value of offspring. Here, we describe a new GS model that combines RR-BLUP with markers fit as fixed effects selected from the results of a genome-wide-association study (GWAS) on the RR-BLUP training data. We term this model GS + de novo GWAS. In a breeding population of tropical rice, GS + de novo GWAS outperformed six other models for a variety of traits and in multiple environments. On the basis of these results, we propose an extended, two-part breeding design that can be used to efficiently integrate novel variation into elite breeding populations, thus expanding genetic diversity and enhancing the potential for sustainable productivity gains.

  3. Incorporating positive body image into the treatment of eating disorders: A model for attunement and mindful self-care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook-Cottone, Catherine P

    2015-06-01

    This article provides a model for understanding the role positive body image can play in the treatment of eating disorders and methods for guiding patients away from symptoms and toward flourishing. The Attuned Representational Model of Self (Cook-Cottone, 2006) and a conceptual model detailing flourishing in the context of body image and eating behavior (Cook-Cottone et al., 2013) are discussed. The flourishing inherent in positive body image comes hand-in-hand with two critical ways of being: (a) having healthy, embodied awareness of the internal and external aspects of self (i.e., attunement) and (b) engaging in mindful self-care. Attunement and mindful self-care thus are considered as potential targets of actionable therapeutic work in the cultivation of positive body image among those with disordered eating. For context, best-practices in eating disorder treatment are also reviewed. Limitations in current research are detailed and directions for future research are explicated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Incorporating modeling and simulations in undergraduate biophysical chemistry course to promote understanding of structure-dynamics-function relationships in proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hati, Sanchita; Bhattacharyya, Sudeep

    2016-01-01

    A project-based biophysical chemistry laboratory course, which is offered to the biochemistry and molecular biology majors in their senior year, is described. In this course, the classroom study of the structure-function of biomolecules is integrated with the discovery-guided laboratory study of these molecules using computer modeling and simulations. In particular, modern computational tools are employed to elucidate the relationship between structure, dynamics, and function in proteins. Computer-based laboratory protocols that we introduced in three modules allow students to visualize the secondary, super-secondary, and tertiary structures of proteins, analyze non-covalent interactions in protein-ligand complexes, develop three-dimensional structural models (homology model) for new protein sequences and evaluate their structural qualities, and study proteins' intrinsic dynamics to understand their functions. In the fourth module, students are assigned to an authentic research problem, where they apply their laboratory skills (acquired in modules 1-3) to answer conceptual biophysical questions. Through this process, students gain in-depth understanding of protein dynamics-the missing link between structure and function. Additionally, the requirement of term papers sharpens students' writing and communication skills. Finally, these projects result in new findings that are communicated in peer-reviewed journals. © 2016 The International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

  5. Incorporating higher order WINKLER springs with 3-D finite element model of a reactor building for seismic SSI analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ermutlu, H.E.

    1993-01-01

    In order to fulfill the seismic safety requirements, in the frame of seismic requalification activities for NPP Muehleberg, Switzerland, detailed seismic analysis performed on the Reactor Building and the results are presented previously. The primary objective of the present investigation is to assess the seismic safety of the reinforced concrete structures of reactor building. To achieve this objective requires a rather detailed 3-D finite element modeling for the outer shell structures, the drywell, the reactor pools, the floor decks and finally, the basemat. This already is a complicated task, which enforces need for simplifications in modelling the reactor internals and the foundation soil. Accordingly, all internal parts are modelled by vertical sticks and the Soil Structure Interaction (SSI) effects are represented by sets of transitional and higher order rotational WINKLER springs, i.e. avoiding complicated finite element SSI analysis. As a matter of fact, the availability of the results of recent investigations carried out on the reactor building using diversive finite element SSI analysis methods allow to calibrate the WINKLER springs, ensuring that the overall SSI behaviour of the reactor building is maintained

  6. Mathematical modelling and optimization of a large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system that incorporates unit changeover and time-of-use electricity price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Qiannan; Luo, Xianglong; Zhang, Bingjian; Chen, Ying

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a novel superstructure for the design and optimization of LSCCHP. • A multi-objective multi-period MINLP model is formulated. • The unit start-up cost and time-of-use electricity prices are involved. • Unit size discretization strategy is proposed to linearize the original MINLP model. • A case study is elaborated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. - Abstract: Building energy systems, particularly large public ones, are major energy consumers and pollutant emission contributors. In this study, a superstructure of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system is constructed. The off-design unit, economic cost, and CO 2 emission models are also formulated. Moreover, a multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming model is formulated for the simultaneous system synthesis, technology selection, unit sizing, and operation optimization of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system. Time-of-use electricity price and unit changeover cost are incorporated into the problem model. The economic objective is to minimize the total annual cost, which comprises the operation and investment costs of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system. The environmental objective is to minimize the annual global CO 2 emission of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system. The augmented ε–constraint method is applied to achieve the Pareto frontier of the design configuration, thereby reflecting the set of solutions that represent optimal trade-offs between the economic and environmental objectives. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to reflect the impact of natural gas price on the combined cooling, heat, and power system. The synthesis and design of combined cooling, heat, and power system for an airport in China is studied to test the proposed synthesis and design methodology. The Pareto curve of multi-objective optimization shows that the total annual cost varies from 102.53 to 94.59 M

  7. A hybrid health service accreditation program model incorporating mandated standards and continuous improvement: interview study of multiple stakeholders in Australian health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenfield, David; Hinchcliff, Reece; Hogden, Anne; Mumford, Virginia; Debono, Deborah; Pawsey, Marjorie; Westbrook, Johanna; Braithwaite, Jeffrey

    2016-07-01

    The study aim was to investigate the understandings and concerns of stakeholders regarding the evolution of health service accreditation programs in Australia. Stakeholder representatives from programs in the primary, acute and aged care sectors participated in semi-structured interviews. Across 2011-12 there were 47 group and individual interviews involving 258 participants. Interviews lasted, on average, 1 h, and were digitally recorded and transcribed. Transcriptions were analysed using textual referencing software. Four significant issues were considered to have directed the evolution of accreditation programs: altering underlying program philosophies; shifting of program content focus and details; different surveying expectations and experiences and the influence of external contextual factors upon accreditation programs. Three accreditation program models were noted by participants: regulatory compliance; continuous quality improvement and a hybrid model, incorporating elements of these two. Respondents noted the compatibility or incommensurability of the first two models. Participation in a program was reportedly experienced as ranging on a survey continuum from "malicious compliance" to "performance audits" to "quality improvement journeys". Wider contextual factors, in particular, political and community expectations, and associated media reporting, were considered significant influences on the operation and evolution of programs. A hybrid accreditation model was noted to have evolved. The hybrid model promotes minimum standards and continuous quality improvement, through examining the structure and processes of organisations and the outcomes of care. The hybrid model appears to be directing organisational and professional attention to enhance their safety cultures. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Incorporation of staphylococci into titanium-grown biofilms: an in vitro "submucosal" biofilm model for peri-implantitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurnheer, Thomas; Belibasakis, Georgios N

    2016-07-01

    Staphylococcus spp. are postulated to play a role in peri-implantitis. This study aimed to develop a "submucosal" in vitro biofilm model, by integrating two staphylococci into its composition. The standard "subgingival" biofilm contained Actinomyces oris, Fusobacterium nucleatum, Streptococcus oralis, Veillonella dispar, Campylobacter rectus, Prevotella intermedia, Streptococcus anginosus, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythia and Treponema denticola, and was further supplemented with Staphyoccous aureus and/or Staphylococcus epidermidis. Biofilms were grown anaerobically on hydroxyapatite or titanium discs and harvested after 64 h for real-time polymerase chain reaction, to determine their composition. Confocal laser scanning microscopy and fluorescence in situ hybridization were used for identifying the two staphylococci within the biofilm. Both staphylococci established within the biofilms when added separately. However, when added together, only S. aureus grew in high numbers, whereas S. epidermidis was reduced almost to the detection limit. Compared to the standard subgingival biofilm, addition of the two staphylococci had no impact on the qualitative or quantitative composition of the biofilm. When grown individually in the biofilm, S. epidermidis and S. aureus formed small distinctive clusters and it was confirmed that S. epidermidis was not able to grow in presence of S. aureus. Staphyoccous aureus and S. epidermidis can be individually integrated into an oral biofilm grown on titanium, hence establishing a "submucosal" biofilm model for peri-implantitis. This model also revealed that S. aureus outcompetes S. epidermidis when grown together in the biofilm, which may explain the more frequent association of the former with peri-implantitis. © 2015 The Authors. Clinical Oral Implants Research Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Predictive Treatment Management: Incorporating a Predictive Tumor Response Model Into Robust Prospective Treatment Planning for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Pengpeng, E-mail: zhangp@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Yorke, Ellen; Hu, Yu-Chi; Mageras, Gig [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Rimner, Andreas [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Deasy, Joseph O. [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States)

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: We hypothesized that a treatment planning technique that incorporates predicted lung tumor regression into optimization, predictive treatment planning (PTP), could allow dose escalation to the residual tumor while maintaining coverage of the initial target without increasing dose to surrounding organs at risk (OARs). Methods and Materials: We created a model to estimate the geometric presence of residual tumors after radiation therapy using planning computed tomography (CT) and weekly cone beam CT scans of 5 lung cancer patients. For planning purposes, we modeled the dynamic process of tumor shrinkage by morphing the original planning target volume (PTV{sub orig}) in 3 equispaced steps to the predicted residue (PTV{sub pred}). Patients were treated with a uniform prescription dose to PTV{sub orig}. By contrast, PTP optimization started with the same prescription dose to PTV{sub orig} but linearly increased the dose at each step, until reaching the highest dose achievable to PTV{sub pred} consistent with OAR limits. This method is compared with midcourse adaptive replanning. Results: Initial parenchymal gross tumor volume (GTV) ranged from 3.6 to 186.5 cm{sup 3}. On average, the primary GTV and PTV decreased by 39% and 27%, respectively, at the end of treatment. The PTP approach gave PTV{sub orig} at least the prescription dose, and it increased the mean dose of the true residual tumor by an average of 6.0 Gy above the adaptive approach. Conclusions: PTP, incorporating a tumor regression model from the start, represents a new approach to increase tumor dose without increasing toxicities, and reduce clinical workload compared with the adaptive approach, although model verification using per-patient midcourse imaging would be prudent.

  10. A Mathematical Model of Solute Coupled Water Transport in Toad Intestine Incorporating Recirculation of the Actively Transported Solute

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Erik Hviid; Sørensen, Jakob Balslev; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær

    2000-01-01

    A mathematical model of an absorbing leaky epithelium is developed for analysis of solute coupled water transport. The non-charged driving solute diffuses into cells and is pumped from cells into the lateral intercellular space (lis). All membranes contain water channels with the solute passing...... increases with hydraulic conductance of the pathway carrying water from mucosal solution into lis. Uphill water transport is accomplished, but with high hydraulic conductance of cell membranes strength of transport is obscured by water flow through cells. Anomalous solvent drag occurs when back flux...

  11. A Mathematical Model of Solute Coupled Water Transport in Toad Intestine Incorporating Recirculation of the Actively Transported Solute

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Erik Hviid; Sørensen, Jakob Balslev; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær

    2000-01-01

    those of tight junction and interspace basement membrane by convection-diffusion. With solute permeability of paracellular pathway large relative to paracellular water flow, the paracellular flux ratio of the solute (influx/outflux) is small (2-4) in agreement with experiments. The virtual solute...... concentration of fluid emerging from lis is then significantly larger than the concentration in lis. Thus, in absence of external driving forces the model generates isotonic transport provided a component of the solute flux emerging downstream lis is taken up by cells through the serosal membrane and pumped...

  12. Anticipating potential biodiversity conflicts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: incorporating spatial filters with species distribution models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Blanchard, R

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available for biodiversity (Evans et al., 2010, Wilcove et al., 2000), as a wider 17 range of land types can be brought into production when compared to conventional 18 agricultural areas (Beringer et al., 2011, Field et al., 2007, Righelato & Spracklen, 2007). 19 One... modelling (SDM) techniques that rely on 3 presence-only records have been shown to provide a useful screening tool to determine 4 suitable climatic environments for potential dedicated energy crops (Evans et al., 2010). The 5 recent use of SDMs...

  13. Seasonal PCB bioaccumulation in an arctic marine ecosystem: a model analysis incorporating lipid dynamics, food-web productivity and migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laender, Frederik De; Oevelen, Dick Van; Frantzen, Sylvia; Middelburg, Jack J; Soetaert, Karline

    2010-01-01

    Primary production and species' lipid contents in Arctic ecosystems are notoriously seasonal. Additionally, seasonal migration patterns of fish may alter prey availability and thus diet. Taking the southern Barents Sea as a study region and PCBs as model contaminants, we examined to what extent each of these factors cause bioaccumulation in fish to change throughout the year. Data on physiology and standing stocks of multiple trophic levels were used to estimated season-specific carbon budgets and by inference also corresponding values for food ingestion and production of cod, capelin, and herring. When combining these values with Arctic lipid dynamics for bioaccumulation model parameter setting, we predicted bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) that were in good agreement with BAFs for cod and capelin observed between 1998 and 2008. BAFs in all fish were 10 times lower in summer than in spring and fall/winter and were mainly driven by lipid dynamics. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs: increase in BAF per unit increase in trophic level as derived from our carbon budgets) were highest for PCB 153 during spring (2.3-2.4) and lowest for PCB 52 in summer and fall/winter (1.5-1.6) and were driven by seasonal shifts in trophic level and lipid dynamics.

  14. Incorporation of the Pore Size Variation to Modeling of the Elastic Behavior of Metallic Open-Cell Foams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćwieka K.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we present the approach for modeling of the elastic behavior of open-cell metallic foams concerning non-uniform pore size distribution. This approach combines design of foam structures and numerical simulations of compression tests using finite element method (FEM. In the design stage, Laguerre-Voronoi tessellations (LVT were performed on several sets of packed spheres with defined variation of radii, bringing about a set of foam structures with porosity ranging from 74 to 98% and different pore size variation quantified by the coefficient of pore volume variation, CV(V, from 0.5 to 2.1. Each structure was numerically subjected to uni-axial compression test along three directions within the elastic region. Basing on the numerical response, the effective Young’s modulus, Eeff, was calculated for each structure. It is shown that the Eeff is not only dependent on the porosity but also on the pore size variation.

  15. Incorporation of Plasticity and Damage Into an Orthotropic Three-Dimensional Model with Tabulated Input Suitable for Use in Composite Impact Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Robert K.; Carney, Kelly S.; Dubois, Paul; Hoffarth, Canio; Rajan,Subramaniam; Blackenhorn, Gunther

    2015-01-01

    The need for accurate material models to simulate the deformation, damage and failure of polymer matrix composites under impact conditions is becoming critical as these materials are gaining increased usage in the aerospace and automotive industries. While there are several composite material models currently available within commercial transient dynamic finite element codes, several features have been identified as being lacking in the currently available material models that could substantially enhance the predictive capability of the impact simulations. A specific desired feature pertains to the incorporation of both plasticity and damage within the material model. Another desired feature relates to using experimentally based tabulated stress-strain input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage as opposed to specifying discrete input properties (such as modulus and strength) and employing analytical functions to track the response of the material. To begin to address these needs, a combined plasticity and damage model suitable for use with both solid and shell elements is being developed for implementation within the commercial code LS-DYNA. The plasticity model is based on extending the Tsai-Wu composite failure model into a strain-hardening based orthotropic plasticity model with a non-associative flow rule. The evolution of the yield surface is determined based on tabulated stress-strain curves in the various normal and shear directions and is tracked using the effective plastic strain. The effective plastic strain is computed by using the non-associative flow rule in combination with appropriate numerical methods. To compute the evolution of damage, a strain equivalent semi-coupled formulation is used, in which a load in one direction results in a stiffness reduction in multiple coordinate directions. A specific laminated composite is examined to demonstrate the process of characterizing and analyzing the response of a composite using the developed

  16. The incorporation of variability and uncertainty evaluations in WWTP design by means of stochastic dynamic modeling: the case of the Eindhoven WWTP upgrade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, Lorenzo; Belia, Evangelina; Cierkens, Katrijn; Flameling, Tony; De Baets, Bernard; Nopens, Ingmar; Weijers, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    This paper illustrates how a dynamic model can be used to evaluate a plant upgrade on the basis of post-upgrade performance data. The case study is that of the Eindhoven wastewater treatment plant upgrade completed in 2006. As a first step, the design process based on a static model was thoroughly analyzed and the choices regarding variability and uncertainty (i.e. safety factors) were made explicit. This involved the interpretation of the design guidelines and other assumptions made by the engineers. As a second step, a (calibrated) dynamic model of the plant was set up, able to reproduce the anticipated variability (duration and frequency). The third step was to define probability density functions for the parameters assumed to be uncertain, and propagate that uncertainty with the dynamic model by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The last step was the statistical evaluation and interpretation of the simulation results. This work should be regarded as a 'learning exercise' increasing the understanding of how and to what extent variability and uncertainty are currently incorporated in design guidelines used in practice and how model-based post-project appraisals could be performed.

  17. Surface Protonation at the Rutile (110) Interface: Explicit Incorporation of Solvation Structure within the Refined MUSIC Model Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Machesky, Michael L.; Predota, M.; Wesolowski, David J.

    2008-01-01

    The detailed solvation structure at the (110) surface of rutile (α-TiO 2 ) in contact with bulk liquid water has been obtained primarily from experimentally verified classical molecular dynamics (CMD) simulations of the ab initio-optimized surface in contact with SPC/E water. The results are used to explicitly quantify H-bonding interactions, which are then used within the refined MUSIC model framework to predict surface oxygen protonation constants. Quantum mechanical molecular dynamics (QMD) simulations in the presence of freely dissociable water molecules produced H-bond distributions around deprotonated surface oxygens very similar to those obtained by CMD with nondissociable SPC/E water, thereby confirming that the less computationally intensive CMD simulations provide accurate H-bond information. Utilizing this H-bond information within the refined MUSIC model, along with manually adjusted Ti-O surface bond lengths that are nonetheless within 0.05 (angstrom) of those obtained from static density functional theory (DFT) calculations and measured in X-ray reflectivity experiments (as well as bulk crystal values), give surface protonation constants that result in a calculated zero net proton charge pH value (pHznpc) at 25 C that agrees quantitatively with the experimentally determined value (5.4 ± 0.2) for a specific rutile powder dominated by the (110) crystal face. Moreover, the predicted pH znpc values agree to within 0.1 pH unit with those measured at all temperatures between 10 and 250 C. A slightly smaller manual adjustment of the DFT-derived Ti-O surface bond lengths was sufficient to bring the predicted pH znpc value of the rutile (110) surface at 25 C into quantitative agreement with the experimental value (4.8 ± 0.3) obtained from a polished and annealed rutile (110) single crystal surface in contact with dilute sodium nitrate solutions using second harmonic generation (SHG) intensity measurements as a function of ionic strength. Additionally, the H

  18. Surface Protonation at the Rutile (110) Interface: Explicit Incorporation of Solvation Structure within the Refined MUSIC Model Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machesky, Michael L. [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL; Predota, M. [University of South Bohemia, Czech Republic; Wesolowski, David J [ORNL

    2008-01-01

    The detailed solvation structure at the (110) surface of rutile ({alpha}-TiO{sub 2}) in contact with bulk liquid water has been obtained primarily from experimentally verified classical molecular dynamics (CMD) simulations of the ab initio-optimized surface in contact with SPC/E water. The results are used to explicitly quantify H-bonding interactions, which are then used within the refined MUSIC model framework to predict surface oxygen protonation constants. Quantum mechanical molecular dynamics (QMD) simulations in the presence of freely dissociable water molecules produced H-bond distributions around deprotonated surface oxygens very similar to those obtained by CMD with nondissociable SPC/E water, thereby confirming that the less computationally intensive CMD simulations provide accurate H-bond information. Utilizing this H-bond information within the refined MUSIC model, along with manually adjusted Ti-O surface bond lengths that are nonetheless within 0.05 {angstrom} of those obtained from static density functional theory (DFT) calculations and measured in X-ray reflectivity experiments (as well as bulk crystal values), give surface protonation constants that result in a calculated zero net proton charge pH value (pHznpc) at 25 C that agrees quantitatively with the experimentally determined value (5.4 {+-} 0.2) for a specific rutile powder dominated by the (110) crystal face. Moreover, the predicted pH{sub znpc} values agree to within 0.1 pH unit with those measured at all temperatures between 10 and 250 C. A slightly smaller manual adjustment of the DFT-derived Ti-O surface bond lengths was sufficient to bring the predicted pH{sub znpc} value of the rutile (110) surface at 25 C into quantitative agreement with the experimental value (4.8 {+-} 0.3) obtained from a polished and annealed rutile (110) single crystal surface in contact with dilute sodium nitrate solutions using second harmonic generation (SHG) intensity measurements as a function of ionic

  19. Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Chen Jining

    2009-01-01

    Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.

  20. Incorporation of local structure into kriging models for the prediction of atomistic properties in the water decamer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davie, Stuart J; Di Pasquale, Nicodemo; Popelier, Paul L A

    2016-10-15

    Machine learning algorithms have been demonstrated to predict atomistic properties approaching the accuracy of quantum chemical calculations at significantly less computational cost. Difficulties arise, however, when attempting to apply these techniques to large systems, or systems possessing excessive conformational freedom. In this article, the machine learning method kriging is applied to predict both the intra-atomic and interatomic energies, as well as the electrostatic multipole moments, of the atoms of a water molecule at the center of a 10 water molecule (decamer) cluster. Unlike previous work, where the properties of small water clusters were predicted using a molecular local frame, and where training set inputs (features) were based on atomic index, a variety of feature definitions and coordinate frames are considered here to increase prediction accuracy. It is shown that, for a water molecule at the center of a decamer, no single method of defining features or coordinate schemes is optimal for every property. However, explicitly accounting for the structure of the first solvation shell in the definition of the features of the kriging training set, and centring the coordinate frame on the atom-of-interest will, in general, return better predictions than models that apply the standard methods of feature definition, or a molecular coordinate frame. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Computational Chemistry Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Computational Chemistry Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. 3D Multi-segment foot kinematics in children: A developmental study in typically developing boys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deschamps, Kevin; Staes, Filip; Peerlinck, Kathelijne; Van Geet, Christel; Hermans, Cedric; Matricali, Giovanni Arnoldo; Lobet, Sebastien

    2017-02-01

    The relationship between age and 3D rotations objectivized with multisegment foot models has not been quantified until now. The purpose of this study was therefore to investigate the relationship between age and multi-segment foot kinematics in a cross-sectional database. Barefoot multi-segment foot kinematics of thirty two typically developing boys, aged 6-20 years, were captured with the Rizzoli Multi-segment Foot Model. One-dimensional statistical parametric mapping linear regression was used to examine the relationship between age and 3D inter-segment rotations of the dominant leg during the full gait cycle. Age was significantly correlated with sagittal plane kinematics of the midfoot and the calcaneus-metatarsus inter-segment angle (pplane kinematics of the calcaneus-metatarsus angle (pfoot models, however, the current study highlights that this is of particular relevance for foot models which incorporate a separate midfoot segment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Incorporating Embedded Microporous Layers into Topologically Equivalent Pore Network Models for Oxygen Diffusivity Calculations in Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell Gas Diffusion Layers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fazeli, Mohammadreza; Hinebaugh, James; Bazylak, Aimy

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Pore network model for modeling PEMFC MPL-coated GDL effective diffusivity. • Bilayered GDL (substrate and MPL) is modeled with a hybrid network of block MPL elements combined with discrete substrate pores. • Diffusivities of MPL-coated GDLs agree with analytical solutions. - Abstract: In this work, a voxel-based methodology is introduced for the hybridization of a pore network with interspersed nano-porous material elements allowing pore network based oxygen diffusivity calculations in a 3D image of a polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cell gas diffusion layer (GDL) with an embedded microporous layer (MPL). The composite GDL is modeled by combining a hybrid network of block MPL elements with prescribed bulk material properties and a topologically equivalent network of larger discrete pores and throats that are directly derived from the 3D image of the GDL substrate. This hybrid network was incorporated into a pore network model, and effective diffusivity predictions of GDL materials with MPL coatings were obtained. Stochastically generated numerical models of carbon paper substrates with and without MPLs were used, and the pore space was directly extracted from this realistic geometry as the input for the pore network model. The effective diffusion coefficient of MPL-coated GDL materials was predicted from 3D images in a pore network modeling environment without resolving the nano-scale structure of the MPL. This method is particularly useful due to the disparate length scales that are involved when attempting to capture pore-scale transport in the GDL. Validation was performed by comparing our predicted diffusivity values to analytical predictions, and excellent agreement was observed. Upon conducting a mesh sensitivity study, it was determined that an MPL element size of 7 μm provided sufficiently high resolution for accurately describing the MPL nano-structure.

  3. Development of West-European PM2.5 and NO2 land use regression models incorporating satellite-derived and chemical transport modelling data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Hoogh, Kees; Gulliver, John; Donkelaar, Aaron van; Martin, Randall V; Marshall, Julian D; Bechle, Matthew J; Cesaroni, Giulia; Pradas, Marta Cirach; Dedele, Audrius; Eeftens, Marloes|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/315028300; Forsberg, Bertil; Galassi, Claudia; Heinrich, Joachim; Hoffmann, Barbara; Jacquemin, Bénédicte; Katsouyanni, Klea; Korek, Michal; Künzli, Nino; Lindley, Sarah J; Lepeule, Johanna; Meleux, Frederik; de Nazelle, Audrey; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark; Nystad, Wenche; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Peters, Annette; Peuch, Vincent-Henri; Rouil, Laurence; Udvardy, Orsolya; Slama, Rémy; Stempfelet, Morgane; Stephanou, Euripides G; Tsai, Ming Y; Yli-Tuomi, Tarja; Weinmayr, Gudrun; Brunekreef, Bert|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/067548180; Vienneau, Danielle; Hoek, Gerard|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/069553475

    2016-01-01

    Satellite-derived (SAT) and chemical transport model (CTM) estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 are increasingly used in combination with Land Use Regression (LUR) models. We aimed to compare the contribution of SAT and CTM data to the performance of LUR PM2.5 and NO2 models for Europe. Four sets of models,

  4. A comprehensive study of novel microcapsules incorporating gliclazide and a permeation enhancing bile acid: hypoglycemic effect in an animal model of Type-1 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathavan, Sangeetha; Chen-Tan, Nigel; Arfuso, Frank; Al-Salami, Hani

    2016-10-01

    Gliclazide (G) is a commonly prescribed drug for Type 2 diabetes (T2D). In a recent study, we found that when G was combined with a primary bile acid, and gavaged to an animal model of Type 1 diabetes (T1D), it exerted a hypoglycemic effect. We hypothesized this to be due to metabolic activation of the primary bile acid into a secondary or a tertiary bile acid, which enhanced G solubility and absorption. The tertiary bile acid, taurocholic acid (TCA), has shown strong permeation-enhancing effects in vivo. Thus, we aimed to design, characterize, and test microcapsules incorporating G and TCA in an animal model of T1D. Microcapsules were prepared using the polymer sodium alginate (SA). G-SA microcapsules (control) and G-TCA-SA microcapsules (test) were extensively examined (in-vitro) at different pH and temperatures. The microcapsules were gavaged to diabetic rats, and blood glucose and G concentrations in serum were examined. Ex-vivo studies were also performed using a muscle cell line (C2C12), and cell viability and glucose intake post-treatment were examined. G-TCA-SA microcapsules showed good stability, uniformity, and thermal and chemical excipient compatibilities. TCA did not change the size or the shape of the microcapsules, but it enhanced their mechanical resistance and reduced their swelling properties. G-TCA-SA enhanced the viability of C2C12 cells over 24 hours, and exerted a hypoglycemic effect in alloxan-induced type-1 diabetic rats. The incorporat